A Quality Framework for Continuous Improvement of e-Learning: The e-Learning Maturity Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marshall, Stephen

2010-01-01

The E-Learning Maturity Model (eMM) is a quality improvement framework designed to help institutional leaders assess their institution's e-learning maturity. This paper reviews the eMM, drawing on examples of assessments conducted in New Zealand, Australia, the UK and the USA to show how it helps institutional leaders assess and compare their…

Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

PubMed

Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

2011-12-01

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

Conceptual Models for Cumulative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2011-01-01

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive “family” of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects. PMID:22021317

A model for communication skills assessment across the undergraduate curriculum.

PubMed

Rider, Elizabeth A; Hinrichs, Margaret M; Lown, Beth A

2006-08-01

Physicians' interpersonal and communication skills have a significant impact on patient care and correlate with improved healthcare outcomes. Some studies suggest, however, that communication skills decline during the four years of medical school. Regulatory and other medical organizations, recognizing the importance of interpersonal and communication skills in the practice of medicine, now require competence in communication skills. Two challenges exist: to select a framework of interpersonal and communication skills to teach across undergraduate medical education, and to develop and implement a uniform model for the assessment of these skills. The authors describe a process and model for developing and institutionalizing the assessment of communication skills across the undergraduate curriculum. Consensus was built regarding communication skill competencies by working with course leaders and examination directors, a uniform framework of competencies was selected to both teach and assess communication skills, and the framework was implemented across the Harvard Medical School undergraduate curriculum. The authors adapted an assessment framework based on the Bayer-Fetzer Kalamazoo Consensus Statement adapted a patient and added and satisfaction tool to bring patients' perspectives into the assessment of the learners. The core communication competencies and evaluation instruments were implemented in school-wide courses and assessment exercises including the first-year Patient-Doctor I Clinical Assessment, second-year Objective Structured Clinical Exam (OSCE), third-year Patient-Doctor III Clinical Assessment, fourth-year Comprehensive Clinical Practice Examination and the Core Medicine Clerkships. Faculty were offered workshops and interactive web-based teaching to become familiar with the framework, and students used the framework with repeated opportunities for faculty feedback on these skills. A model is offered for educational leaders and others who are involved in designing assessment in communication skills. By presenting an approach for implementation, the authors hope to provide guidance for the successful integration of communication skills assessment in undergraduate medical education.

Parameterization models for pesticide exposure via crop consumption.

PubMed

Fantke, Peter; Wieland, Peter; Juraske, Ronnie; Shaddick, Gavin; Itoiz, Eva Sevigné; Friedrich, Rainer; Jolliet, Olivier

2012-12-04

An approach for estimating human exposure to pesticides via consumption of six important food crops is presented that can be used to extend multimedia models applied in health risk and life cycle impact assessment. We first assessed the variation of model output (pesticide residues per kg applied) as a function of model input variables (substance, crop, and environmental properties) including their possible correlations using matrix algebra. We identified five key parameters responsible for between 80% and 93% of the variation in pesticide residues, namely time between substance application and crop harvest, degradation half-lives in crops and on crop surfaces, overall residence times in soil, and substance molecular weight. Partition coefficients also play an important role for fruit trees and tomato (Kow), potato (Koc), and lettuce (Kaw, Kow). Focusing on these parameters, we develop crop-specific models by parametrizing a complex fate and exposure assessment framework. The parametric models thereby reflect the framework's physical and chemical mechanisms and predict pesticide residues in harvest using linear combinations of crop, crop surface, and soil compartments. Parametric model results correspond well with results from the complex framework for 1540 substance-crop combinations with total deviations between a factor 4 (potato) and a factor 66 (lettuce). Predicted residues also correspond well with experimental data previously used to evaluate the complex framework. Pesticide mass in harvest can finally be combined with reduction factors accounting for food processing to estimate human exposure from crop consumption. All parametric models can be easily implemented into existing assessment frameworks.

An Organizational Development Framework for Assessing Readiness and Capacity for Expanding Online Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piña, Anthony A.

2017-01-01

In this article, a popular model for organizational development is utilized as a framework for assessing the organizational readiness and capacity of educational institutions whose leaders wish to establish or expand their online/distance education programs. Examples of institutionalization factors to consider and alternative models for assessing…

Assessing Students' Deep Conceptual Understanding in Physical Sciences: An Example on Sinking and Floating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shen, Ji; Liu, Ou Lydia; Chang, Hsin-Yi

2017-01-01

This paper presents a transformative modeling framework that guides the development of assessment to measure students' deep understanding in physical sciences. The framework emphasizes 3 types of connections that students need to make when learning physical sciences: (1) linking physical states, processes, and explanatory models, (2) integrating…

DAM_Explorer: A Modeling Framework for Assessing the Physical Response of Streams to Dam Removal

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

ERDC TN-EMRRP-SR-65 1 DAM_Explorer: A Modeling Framework for Assessing the Physical Response of Streams to Dam Removal By Jock Conyngham1 and...physical and temporal increments for staged removals) is anticipated. POINTS OF CONTACT For additional information contact Jock N. Conyngham (406-541

The Material Supply Adjustment Process in RAMF-SM, Step 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

contain. The Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework for Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) is a suite of mathematical models and databases that has been...Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework for Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) is a suite of mathematical models and databases used to support the...and computes material shortfalls.1 Several mathematical models and dozens of databases, encompassing thousands of data items, support the

A College Administrator's Framework to Assess Compliance with Accreditation Mandates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis†, Jerry M.; Rivera, John-Juan

2014-01-01

A framework to assess the impact of complying with college accreditation mandates is developed based on North's (1996) concepts of transaction costs, property rights, and institutions; Clayton's (1999) Systems Alignment Model; and the educational production function described by Hanushek (2007). The framework demonstrates how sought…

The Roy Adaptation Model: A Theoretical Framework for Nurses Providing Care to Individuals With Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Jennings, Karen M

Using a nursing theoretical framework to understand, elucidate, and propose nursing research is fundamental to knowledge development. This article presents the Roy Adaptation Model as a theoretical framework to better understand individuals with anorexia nervosa during acute treatment, and the role of nursing assessments and interventions in the promotion of weight restoration. Nursing assessments and interventions situated within the Roy Adaptation Model take into consideration how weight restoration does not occur in isolation but rather reflects an adaptive process within external and internal environments, and has the potential for more holistic care.

Beliefs, Practices, and Reflection: Exploring a Science Teacher's Classroom Assessment through the Assessment Triangle Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyon, Edward G.

2011-01-01

This paper describes the Assessment Practices Framework and how I used it to study a high school Chemistry teacher as she designed, implemented, and learned from a chemistry lab report. The framework consists of exploring three teacher-centered components of classroom assessment (assessment beliefs, practices, and reflection) and analyzing…

Application of ''Earl's Assessment "as", Assessment "for", and Assessment "of" Learning Model'' with Orthopaedic Assessment Clinical Competence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lafave, Mark R.; Katz, Larry; Vaughn, Norman

2013-01-01

Context: In order to study the efficacy of assessment methods, a theoretical framework of Earl's model of assessment was introduced. Objective: (1) Introduce the predictive learning assessment model (PLAM) as an application of Earl's model of learning; (2) test Earl's model of learning through the use of the Standardized Orthopedic Assessment Tool…

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2013-05-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

EFFECTS-BASED CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT IN A LOW-INCOME URBAN COMMUNITY NEAR A SUPERFUND SITE

EPA Science Inventory

We will introduce into the cumulative risk assessment framework novel methods for non-cancer risk assessment, techniques for dose-response modeling that extend insights from chemical mixtures frameworks to non-chemical stressors, multilevel statistical methods used to address ...

An Applied Framework for Incorporating Multiple Sources of Uncertainty in Fisheries Stock Assessments.

PubMed

Scott, Finlay; Jardim, Ernesto; Millar, Colin P; Cerviño, Santiago

2016-01-01

Estimating fish stock status is very challenging given the many sources and high levels of uncertainty surrounding the biological processes (e.g. natural variability in the demographic rates), model selection (e.g. choosing growth or stock assessment models) and parameter estimation. Incorporating multiple sources of uncertainty in a stock assessment allows advice to better account for the risks associated with proposed management options, promoting decisions that are more robust to such uncertainty. However, a typical assessment only reports the model fit and variance of estimated parameters, thereby underreporting the overall uncertainty. Additionally, although multiple candidate models may be considered, only one is selected as the 'best' result, effectively rejecting the plausible assumptions behind the other models. We present an applied framework to integrate multiple sources of uncertainty in the stock assessment process. The first step is the generation and conditioning of a suite of stock assessment models that contain different assumptions about the stock and the fishery. The second step is the estimation of parameters, including fitting of the stock assessment models. The final step integrates across all of the results to reconcile the multi-model outcome. The framework is flexible enough to be tailored to particular stocks and fisheries and can draw on information from multiple sources to implement a broad variety of assumptions, making it applicable to stocks with varying levels of data availability The Iberian hake stock in International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Divisions VIIIc and IXa is used to demonstrate the framework, starting from length-based stock and indices data. Process and model uncertainty are considered through the growth, natural mortality, fishing mortality, survey catchability and stock-recruitment relationship. Estimation uncertainty is included as part of the fitting process. Simple model averaging is used to integrate across the results and produce a single assessment that considers the multiple sources of uncertainty.

Framework for assessing impacts of pile-driving noise from offshore wind farm construction on a harbour seal population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, Paul M., E-mail: lighthouse@abdn.ac.uk; Hastie, Gordon D., E-mail: gdh10@st-andrews.ac.uk; Nedwell, Jeremy, E-mail: Jeremy.Nedwell@subacoustech.com

2013-11-15

Offshore wind farm developments may impact protected marine mammal populations, requiring appropriate assessment under the EU Habitats Directive. We describe a framework developed to assess population level impacts of disturbance from piling noise on a protected harbour seal population in the vicinity of proposed wind farm developments in NE Scotland. Spatial patterns of seal distribution and received noise levels are integrated with available data on the potential impacts of noise to predict how many individuals are displaced or experience auditory injury. Expert judgement is used to link these impacts to changes in vital rates and applied to population models thatmore » compare population changes under baseline and construction scenarios over a 25 year period. We use published data and hypothetical piling scenarios to illustrate how the assessment framework has been used to support environmental assessments, explore the sensitivity of the framework to key assumptions, and discuss its potential application to other populations of marine mammals. -- Highlights: • We develop a framework to support Appropriate Assessment for harbour seal populations. • We assessed potential impacts of wind farm construction noise. • Data on distribution of seals and noise were used to predict effects on individuals. • Expert judgement linked these impacts to vital rates to model population change. • We explore the sensitivity of the framework to key assumptions and uncertainties.« less

Assessing Students' Understandings of Biological Models and Their Use in Science to Evaluate a Theoretical Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grünkorn, Juliane; Upmeier zu Belzen, Annette; Krüger, Dirk

2014-01-01

Research in the field of students' understandings of models and their use in science describes different frameworks concerning these understandings. Currently, there is no conjoint framework that combines these structures and so far, no investigation has focused on whether it reflects students' understandings sufficiently (empirical evaluation).…

A framework for global river flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Bouwman, A.; Ward, P. J.; Jongman, B.

2012-04-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks. Such assessments may be required by: (a) International Financing Institutes and Disaster Management Agencies to evaluate where, when, and which investments in flood risk mitigation are most required; (b) (re-)insurers, who need to determine their required coverage capital; and (c) large companies to account for risks of regional investments. In this contribution, we propose a framework for global river flood risk assessment. The framework combines coarse scale resolution hazard probability distributions, derived from global hydrological model runs (typical scale about 0.5 degree resolution) with high resolution estimates of exposure indicators. The high resolution is required because floods typically occur at a much smaller scale than the typical resolution of global hydrological models, and exposure indicators such as population, land use and economic value generally are strongly variable in space and time. The framework therefore estimates hazard at a high resolution ( 1 km2) by using a) global forcing data sets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate; b) a global hydrological model; c) a global flood routing model, and d) importantly, a flood spatial downscaling routine. This results in probability distributions of annual flood extremes as an indicator of flood hazard, at the appropriate resolution. A second component of the framework combines the hazard probability distribution with classical flood impact models (e.g. damage, affected GDP, affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk. The framework can be applied with a large number of datasets and models and sensitivities of such choices can be evaluated by the user. The framework is applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, combined with a global flood routing model. Downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution is performed with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on a number of target regions. We demonstrate the use of impact models in these regions based on global GDP, population, and land use maps. In this application, we show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input datasets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish distributed estimates of GDP and asset exposure to flooding.

Conceptual Modeling Framework for E-Area PA HELP Infiltration Model Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dyer, J. A.

A conceptual modeling framework based on the proposed E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) closure cap design is presented for conducting Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model simulations of intact and subsided cap infiltration scenarios for the next E-Area Performance Assessment (PA).

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, J. M.

2013-12-01

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation of toxic substances. The capability of the Framework to address cumulative impacts will be demonstrated for freshwater ecosystem services and mountaintop mining.

A narrative review of research impact assessment models and methods.

PubMed

Milat, Andrew J; Bauman, Adrian E; Redman, Sally

2015-03-18

Research funding agencies continue to grapple with assessing research impact. Theoretical frameworks are useful tools for describing and understanding research impact. The purpose of this narrative literature review was to synthesize evidence that describes processes and conceptual models for assessing policy and practice impacts of public health research. The review involved keyword searches of electronic databases, including MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EBM Reviews, and Google Scholar in July/August 2013. Review search terms included 'research impact', 'policy and practice', 'intervention research', 'translational research', 'health promotion', and 'public health'. The review included theoretical and opinion pieces, case studies, descriptive studies, frameworks and systematic reviews describing processes, and conceptual models for assessing research impact. The review was conducted in two phases: initially, abstracts were retrieved and assessed against the review criteria followed by the retrieval and assessment of full papers against review criteria. Thirty one primary studies and one systematic review met the review criteria, with 88% of studies published since 2006. Studies comprised assessments of the impacts of a wide range of health-related research, including basic and biomedical research, clinical trials, health service research, as well as public health research. Six studies had an explicit focus on assessing impacts of health promotion or public health research and one had a specific focus on intervention research impact assessment. A total of 16 different impact assessment models were identified, with the 'payback model' the most frequently used conceptual framework. Typically, impacts were assessed across multiple dimensions using mixed methodologies, including publication and citation analysis, interviews with principal investigators, peer assessment, case studies, and document analysis. The vast majority of studies relied on principal investigator interviews and/or peer review to assess impacts, instead of interviewing policymakers and end-users of research. Research impact assessment is a new field of scientific endeavour and there are a growing number of conceptual frameworks applied to assess the impacts of research.

Business model framework applications in health care: A systematic review.

PubMed

Fredriksson, Jens Jacob; Mazzocato, Pamela; Muhammed, Rafiq; Savage, Carl

2017-11-01

It has proven to be a challenge for health care organizations to achieve the Triple Aim. In the business literature, business model frameworks have been used to understand how organizations are aligned to achieve their goals. We conducted a systematic literature review with an explanatory synthesis approach to understand how business model frameworks have been applied in health care. We found a large increase in applications of business model frameworks during the last decade. E-health was the most common context of application. We identified six applications of business model frameworks: business model description, financial assessment, classification based on pre-defined typologies, business model analysis, development, and evaluation. Our synthesis suggests that the choice of business model framework and constituent elements should be informed by the intent and context of application. We see a need for harmonization in the choice of elements in order to increase generalizability, simplify application, and help organizations realize the Triple Aim.

Using an Integrated, Multi-disciplinary Framework to Support Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) provides the infrastructure to link disparate models and databases seamlessly, giving an assessor the ability to construct an appropriate conceptual site model from a host of modeling choices, so a numbe...

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change in the United States. The primary goal of this framework to estimate how climate change impac...

lazar: a modular predictive toxicology framework

PubMed Central

Maunz, Andreas; Gütlein, Martin; Rautenberg, Micha; Vorgrimmler, David; Gebele, Denis; Helma, Christoph

2013-01-01

lazar (lazy structure–activity relationships) is a modular framework for predictive toxicology. Similar to the read across procedure in toxicological risk assessment, lazar creates local QSAR (quantitative structure–activity relationship) models for each compound to be predicted. Model developers can choose between a large variety of algorithms for descriptor calculation and selection, chemical similarity indices, and model building. This paper presents a high level description of the lazar framework and discusses the performance of example classification and regression models. PMID:23761761

The HTA Core Model®-10 Years of Developing an International Framework to Share Multidimensional Value Assessment.

PubMed

Kristensen, Finn Børlum; Lampe, Kristian; Wild, Claudia; Cerbo, Marina; Goettsch, Wim; Becla, Lidia

2017-02-01

The HTA Core Model ® as a science-based framework for assessing dimensions of value was developed as a part of the European network for Health Technology Assessment project in the period 2006 to 2008 to facilitate production and sharing of health technology assessment (HTA) information, such as evidence on efficacy and effectiveness and patient aspects, to inform decisions. It covers clinical value as well as organizational, economic, and patient aspects of technologies and has been field-tested in two consecutive joint actions in the period 2010 to 2016. A large number of HTA institutions were involved in the work. The model has undergone revisions and improvement after iterations of piloting and can be used in a local, national, or international context to produce structured HTA information that can be taken forward by users into their own frameworks to fit their specific needs when informing decisions on technology. The model has a broad scope and offers a common ground to various stakeholders through offering a standard structure and a transparent set of proposed HTA questions. It consists of three main components: 1) the HTA ontology, 2) methodological guidance, and 3) a common reporting structure. It covers domains such as effectiveness, safety, and economics, and also includes domains covering organizational, patient, social, and legal aspects. There is a full model and a focused rapid relative effectiveness assessment model, and a third joint action is to continue till 2020. The HTA Core Model is now available for everyone around the world as a framework for assessing value. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Implementation of the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework

EPA Science Inventory

New leaching tests are available in the U.S. for developing more accurate source terms for use in fate and transport models. For beneficial use or disposal, the use of the leaching environmental assessment framework (LEAF) will provide leaching results that reflect field condit...

Framework for the Parametric System Modeling of Space Exploration Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Komar, David R.; Hoffman, Jim; Olds, Aaron D.; Seal, Mike D., II

2008-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for performing architecture definition and assessment prior to, or during, program formulation that utilizes a centralized, integrated architecture modeling framework operated by a small, core team of general space architects. This framework, known as the Exploration Architecture Model for IN-space and Earth-to-orbit (EXAMINE), enables: 1) a significantly larger fraction of an architecture trade space to be assessed in a given study timeframe; and 2) the complex element-to-element and element-to-system relationships to be quantitatively explored earlier in the design process. Discussion of the methodology advantages and disadvantages with respect to the distributed study team approach typically used within NASA to perform architecture studies is presented along with an overview of EXAMINE s functional components and tools. An example Mars transportation system architecture model is used to demonstrate EXAMINE s capabilities in this paper. However, the framework is generally applicable for exploration architecture modeling with destinations to any celestial body in the solar system.

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

Innovative Assessments That Support Students' STEM Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thummaphan, Phonraphee

2017-01-01

The present study aimed to represent the innovative assessments that support students' learning in STEM education through using the integrative framework for Cognitive Diagnostic Modeling (CDM). This framework is based on three components, cognition, observation, and interpretation (National Research Council, 2001). Specifically, this dissertation…

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include n...

Decision framework for corridor planning within the roadside right-of-way.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

A decision framework was developed for context-sensitive planning within the roadside ROW in : Michigan. This framework provides a roadside suitability assessment model that may be used to : support integrated decision-making and policy level conside...

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. The framework introduced here represents an ongoing initiative supported by the National Institute of Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS; http://www.nimbi

Understanding ADHD from a Biopsychosocial-Cultural Framework: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pham, Andy V.

2015-01-01

The biopsychosocial-cultural framework is a systemic and multifaceted approach to assessment and intervention that takes into account biological, psychological, and socio-cultural factors that influence human functioning and service delivery. Although originally developed to assess physical health and medical illness, this contemporary model can…

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE PAGES

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; ...

2017-08-25

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Integration of agricultural and energy system models for biofuel assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a coupled modeling framework to capture the dynamic linkages between agricultural and energy markets that have been enhanced through the expansion of biofuel production, as well as the environmental impacts resulting from this expansion. The framework incorpor...

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for evaluating new medicines in Health Technology Assessment and beyond: The Advance Value Framework.

PubMed

Angelis, Aris; Kanavos, Panos

2017-09-01

Escalating drug prices have catalysed the generation of numerous "value frameworks" with the aim of informing payers, clinicians and patients on the assessment and appraisal process of new medicines for the purpose of coverage and treatment selection decisions. Although this is an important step towards a more inclusive Value Based Assessment (VBA) approach, aspects of these frameworks are based on weak methodologies and could potentially result in misleading recommendations or decisions. In this paper, a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodological process, based on Multi Attribute Value Theory (MAVT), is adopted for building a multi-criteria evaluation model. A five-stage model-building process is followed, using a top-down "value-focused thinking" approach, involving literature reviews and expert consultations. A generic value tree is structured capturing decision-makers' concerns for assessing the value of new medicines in the context of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and in alignment with decision theory. The resulting value tree (Advance Value Tree) consists of three levels of criteria (top level criteria clusters, mid-level criteria, bottom level sub-criteria or attributes) relating to five key domains that can be explicitly measured and assessed: (a) burden of disease, (b) therapeutic impact, (c) safety profile (d) innovation level and (e) socioeconomic impact. A number of MAVT modelling techniques are introduced for operationalising (i.e. estimating) the model, for scoring the alternative treatment options, assigning relative weights of importance to the criteria, and combining scores and weights. Overall, the combination of these MCDA modelling techniques for the elicitation and construction of value preferences across the generic value tree provides a new value framework (Advance Value Framework) enabling the comprehensive measurement of value in a structured and transparent way. Given its flexibility to meet diverse requirements and become readily adaptable across different settings, the Advance Value Framework could be offered as a decision-support tool for evaluators and payers to aid coverage and reimbursement of new medicines. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals.

PubMed

Forbes, Valery E; Salice, Chris J; Birnir, Bjorn; Bruins, Randy J F; Calow, Peter; Ducrot, Virginie; Galic, Nika; Garber, Kristina; Harvey, Bret C; Jager, Henriette; Kanarek, Andrew; Pastorok, Robert; Railsback, Steve F; Rebarber, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille

2017-04-01

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:845-859. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Leveraging Strengths Assessment and Intervention Model (LeStAIM): A Theoretical Strength-Based Assessment Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laija-Rodriguez, Wilda; Grites, Karen; Bouman, Doug; Pohlman, Craig; Goldman, Richard L.

2013-01-01

Current assessments in the schools are based on a deficit model (Epstein, 1998). "The National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) Model for Comprehensive and Integrated School Psychological Services" (2010), federal initiatives and mandates, and experts in the field of assessment have highlighted the need for the comprehensive…

Multisensor satellite data for water quality analysis and water pollution risk assessment: decision making under deep uncertainty with fuzzy algorithm in framework of multimodel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Sztoyka, Yulia; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Artemenko, Igor; Yuschenko, Maxim

2017-10-01

Multi-model approach for remote sensing data processing and interpretation is described. The problem of satellite data utilization in multi-modeling approach for socio-ecological risks assessment is formally defined. Observation, measurement and modeling data utilization method in the framework of multi-model approach is described. Methodology and models of risk assessment in framework of decision support approach are defined and described. Method of water quality assessment using satellite observation data is described. Method is based on analysis of spectral reflectance of aquifers. Spectral signatures of freshwater bodies and offshores are analyzed. Correlations between spectral reflectance, pollutions and selected water quality parameters are analyzed and quantified. Data of MODIS, MISR, AIRS and Landsat sensors received in 2002-2014 have been utilized verified by in-field spectrometry and lab measurements. Fuzzy logic based approach for decision support in field of water quality degradation risk is discussed. Decision on water quality category is making based on fuzzy algorithm using limited set of uncertain parameters. Data from satellite observations, field measurements and modeling is utilizing in the framework of the approach proposed. It is shown that this algorithm allows estimate water quality degradation rate and pollution risks. Problems of construction of spatial and temporal distribution of calculated parameters, as well as a problem of data regularization are discussed. Using proposed approach, maps of surface water pollution risk from point and diffuse sources are calculated and discussed.

The Development of a Conceptual Framework and Tools to Assess Undergraduates' Principled Use of Models in Cellular Biology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richmond, Gail; Merritt, Brett; Urban-Lurain, Mark; Parker, Joyce

2010-01-01

Recent science education reform has been marked by a shift away from a focus on facts toward deep, rich, conceptual understanding. This requires assessment that also focuses on conceptual understanding rather than recall of facts. This study outlines our development of a new assessment framework and tool--a taxonomy--which, unlike existing…

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products. This paper presents a conceptual framework for including near-field exposures into Life Cycle Assessment using advanced human exposure modeling and high-throughput tools

Applicability Analysis of Validation Evidence for Biomedical Computational Models

DOE PAGES

Pathmanathan, Pras; Gray, Richard A.; Romero, Vicente J.; ...

2017-09-07

Computational modeling has the potential to revolutionize medicine the way it transformed engineering. However, despite decades of work, there has only been limited progress to successfully translate modeling research to patient care. One major difficulty which often occurs with biomedical computational models is an inability to perform validation in a setting that closely resembles how the model will be used. For example, for a biomedical model that makes in vivo clinically relevant predictions, direct validation of predictions may be impossible for ethical, technological, or financial reasons. Unavoidable limitations inherent to the validation process lead to challenges in evaluating the credibilitymore » of biomedical model predictions. Therefore, when evaluating biomedical models, it is critical to rigorously assess applicability, that is, the relevance of the computational model, and its validation evidence to the proposed context of use (COU). However, there are no well-established methods for assessing applicability. In this paper, we present a novel framework for performing applicability analysis and demonstrate its use with a medical device computational model. The framework provides a systematic, step-by-step method for breaking down the broad question of applicability into a series of focused questions, which may be addressed using supporting evidence and subject matter expertise. The framework can be used for model justification, model assessment, and validation planning. While motivated by biomedical models, it is relevant to a broad range of disciplines and underlying physics. Finally, the proposed applicability framework could help overcome some of the barriers inherent to validation of, and aid clinical implementation of, biomedical models.« less

Applicability Analysis of Validation Evidence for Biomedical Computational Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pathmanathan, Pras; Gray, Richard A.; Romero, Vicente J.

Computational modeling has the potential to revolutionize medicine the way it transformed engineering. However, despite decades of work, there has only been limited progress to successfully translate modeling research to patient care. One major difficulty which often occurs with biomedical computational models is an inability to perform validation in a setting that closely resembles how the model will be used. For example, for a biomedical model that makes in vivo clinically relevant predictions, direct validation of predictions may be impossible for ethical, technological, or financial reasons. Unavoidable limitations inherent to the validation process lead to challenges in evaluating the credibilitymore » of biomedical model predictions. Therefore, when evaluating biomedical models, it is critical to rigorously assess applicability, that is, the relevance of the computational model, and its validation evidence to the proposed context of use (COU). However, there are no well-established methods for assessing applicability. In this paper, we present a novel framework for performing applicability analysis and demonstrate its use with a medical device computational model. The framework provides a systematic, step-by-step method for breaking down the broad question of applicability into a series of focused questions, which may be addressed using supporting evidence and subject matter expertise. The framework can be used for model justification, model assessment, and validation planning. While motivated by biomedical models, it is relevant to a broad range of disciplines and underlying physics. Finally, the proposed applicability framework could help overcome some of the barriers inherent to validation of, and aid clinical implementation of, biomedical models.« less

A methodology to model causal relationships on offshore safety assessment focusing on human and organizational factors.

PubMed

Ren, J; Jenkinson, I; Wang, J; Xu, D L; Yang, J B

2008-01-01

Focusing on people and organizations, this paper aims to contribute to offshore safety assessment by proposing a methodology to model causal relationships. The methodology is proposed in a general sense that it will be capable of accommodating modeling of multiple risk factors considered in offshore operations and will have the ability to deal with different types of data that may come from different resources. Reason's "Swiss cheese" model is used to form a generic offshore safety assessment framework, and Bayesian Network (BN) is tailored to fit into the framework to construct a causal relationship model. The proposed framework uses a five-level-structure model to address latent failures within the causal sequence of events. The five levels include Root causes level, Trigger events level, Incidents level, Accidents level, and Consequences level. To analyze and model a specified offshore installation safety, a BN model was established following the guideline of the proposed five-level framework. A range of events was specified, and the related prior and conditional probabilities regarding the BN model were assigned based on the inherent characteristics of each event. This paper shows that Reason's "Swiss cheese" model and BN can be jointly used in offshore safety assessment. On the one hand, the five-level conceptual model is enhanced by BNs that are capable of providing graphical demonstration of inter-relationships as well as calculating numerical values of occurrence likelihood for each failure event. Bayesian inference mechanism also makes it possible to monitor how a safety situation changes when information flow travel forwards and backwards within the networks. On the other hand, BN modeling relies heavily on experts' personal experiences and is therefore highly domain specific. "Swiss cheese" model is such a theoretic framework that it is based on solid behavioral theory and therefore can be used to provide industry with a roadmap for BN modeling and implications. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit and authorized vessels caused by human and organizational factors (HOFs) during operations is used to illustrate an industrial application of the proposed methodology.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

PubMed

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

JSEM: A Framework for Identifying and Evaluating Indicators.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hyman, Jeffrey B.; Leibowitz, Scott G.

2001-01-01

Presents an approach to identifying and evaluating combinations of indicators when the mathematical relationships between the indicators and an endpoint may not be quantified, a limitation common to many ecological assessments. Uses the framework of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which combines path analysis with measurement model, to…

A framework for assessing cumulative effects in watersheds: an introduction to Canadian case studies.

PubMed

Dubé, Monique G; Duinker, Peter; Greig, Lorne; Carver, Martin; Servos, Mark; McMaster, Mark; Noble, Bram; Schreier, Hans; Jackson, Lee; Munkittrick, Kelly R

2013-07-01

From 2008 to 2013, a series of studies supported by the Canadian Water Network were conducted in Canadian watersheds in an effort to improve methods to assess cumulative effects. These studies fit under a common framework for watershed cumulative effects assessment (CEA). This article presents an introduction to the Special Series on Watershed CEA in IEAM including the framework and its impetus, a brief introduction to each of the articles in the series, challenges, and a path forward. The framework includes a regional water monitoring program that produces 3 core outputs: an accumulated state assessment, stressor-response relationships, and development of predictive cumulative effects scenario models. The framework considers core values, indicators, thresholds, and use of consistent terminology. It emphasizes that CEA requires 2 components, accumulated state quantification and predictive scenario forecasting. It recognizes both of these components must be supported by a regional, multiscale monitoring program. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Comparative and Predictive Multimedia Assessments Using Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whelan, G.

2002-05-01

Multiple-pathway frameworks (sometimes referred to as multimedia models) provide a platform for combining medium-specific environmental models and databases, such that they can be utilized in a more holistic assessment of contaminant fate and transport in the environment. These frameworks provide a relatively seamless transfer of information from one model to the next and from databases to models. Within these frameworks, multiple models are linked, resulting in models that consume information from upstream models and produce information to be consumed by downstream models. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) is an example, which allows users to link their models to other models and databases. FRAMES is an icon-driven, site-layout platform that is an open-architecture, object-oriented system that interacts with environmental databases; helps the user construct a Conceptual Site Model that is real-world based; allows the user to choose the most appropriate models to solve simulation requirements; solves the standard risk paradigm of release transport and fate; and exposure/risk assessments to people and ecology; and presents graphical packages for analyzing results. FRAMES is specifically designed allow users to link their own models into a system, which contains models developed by others. This paper will present the use of FRAMES to evaluate potential human health exposures using real site data and realistic assumptions from sources, through the vadose and saturated zones, to exposure and risk assessment at three real-world sites, using the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), which is a multimedia model contained within FRAMES. These real-world examples use predictive and comparative approaches coupled with a Monte Carlo analysis. A predictive analysis is where models are calibrated to monitored site data, prior to the assessment, and a comparative analysis is where models are not calibrated but based solely on literature or judgement and is usually used to compare alternatives. In many cases, a combination is employed where the model is calibrated to a portion of the data (e.g., to determine hydrodynamics), then used to compare alternatives. Three subsurface-based multimedia examples are presented, increasing in complexity. The first presents the application of a predictive, deterministic assessment; the second presents a predictive and comparative, Monte Carlo analysis; and the third presents a comparative, multi-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis. Endpoints are typically presented in terms of concentration, hazard, risk, and dose, and because the vadose zone model typically represents a connection between a source and the aquifer, it does not generally represent the final medium in a multimedia risk assessment.

Multidimensional Assessment of Spirituality/Religion in Patients with HIV: Conceptual Framework and Empirical Refinement

PubMed Central

Kudel, Ian; Cotton, Sian; Leonard, Anthony C.; Tsevat, Joel; Ritchey, P. Neal

2011-01-01

A decade ago, an expert panel developed a framework for measuring spirituality/religion in health research (Brief Multidimensional Measure of Religiousness/Spirituality), but empirical testing of this framework has been limited. The purpose of this study was to determine whether responses to items across multiple measures assessing spirituality/religion by 450 patients with HIV replicate this model. We hypothesized a six-factor model underlying a collective of 56 items, but results of confirmatory factor analyses suggested eight dimensions: Meaning/Peace, Tangible Connection to the Divine, Positive Religious Coping, Love/Appreciation, Negative Religious Coping, Positive Congregational Support, Negative Congregational Support, and Cultural Practices. This study corroborates parts of the factor structure underlying the Brief Multidimensional Measure of Religiousness/Spirituality and some recent refinements of the original framework. PMID:21136166

Multidimensional assessment of spirituality/religion in patients with HIV: conceptual framework and empirical refinement.

PubMed

Szaflarski, Magdalena; Kudel, Ian; Cotton, Sian; Leonard, Anthony C; Tsevat, Joel; Ritchey, P Neal

2012-12-01

A decade ago, an expert panel developed a framework for measuring spirituality/religion in health research (Brief Multidimensional Measure of Religiousness/Spirituality), but empirical testing of this framework has been limited. The purpose of this study was to determine whether responses to items across multiple measures assessing spirituality/religion by 450 patients with HIV replicate this model. We hypothesized a six-factor model underlying a collective of 56 items, but results of confirmatory factor analyses suggested eight dimensions: Meaning/Peace, Tangible Connection to the Divine, Positive Religious Coping, Love/Appreciation, Negative Religious Coping, Positive Congregational Support, Negative Congregational Support, and Cultural Practices. This study corroborates parts of the factor structure underlying the Brief Multidimensional Measure of Religiousness/Spirituality and some recent refinements of the original framework.

A Local to National Scale Catchment Model Simulation Framework for Hydrological Predictions and Impact Assessments Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Quinn, Niall; Dunne, Toby; Lane, Rosie; Bates, Paul; Wagener, Thorsten; Woods, Ross; Neal, Jeff; Howden, Nicholas; Musuuza, Jude

2017-04-01

There is a huge challenge in developing hydrological model structures that can be used for hypothesis testing, prediction, impact assessment and risk analyses over a wide range of spatial scales. There are many reasons why this is the case, from computational demands, to how we define and characterize different features and pathway connectivities in the landscape, that differ depending on the objectives of the study. However there is certainly a need more than ever to explore the trade-offs between the complexity of modelling applied (i.e. spatial discretization, levels of process representation, complexity of landscape representation) compared to the benefits realized in terms of predictive capability and robustness of these predictions during hydrological extremes and during change. Furthermore, there is a further balance, particularly associated with prediction uncertainties, in that it is not desirable to have modelling systems that are too complex compared to the observed data that would ever be available to apply them. This is particularly the case when models are applied to quantify national impact assessments, especially if these are based on validation assessments from smaller more detailed case studies. Therefore the hydrological community needs modelling tools and approaches that enable these trade-offs to be explored and to understand the level of representation needed in models to be 'fit-for-purpose' for a given application. This paper presents a catchment scale national modelling framework based on Dynamic-TOPMODEL specifically setup to fulfil these aims. A key component of the modelling framework is it's structural flexibility, as is the ability to assess model outputs using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model build has been automated to work at any spatial scale to the national scale, and within that to control the level of spatial discretisation and connectivity of locally accounted landscape elements in the form of hydrological response units (HRU's). This allows for the explicit consideration of spatial rainfall fields, landscape, soils and geological attributes and the spatial connectivity of hydrological flow pathways to explore what level of modelling complexity we need for different prediction problems. We shall present this framework and show how it can be used in flood and drought risk analyses as well as include attributes and features within the landscape to explore societal and climate impacts effectively within an uncertainty analyses framework.

Measuring implementation behaviour of menu guidelines in the childcare setting: confirmatory factor analysis of a theoretical domains framework questionnaire (TDFQ).

PubMed

Seward, Kirsty; Wolfenden, Luke; Wiggers, John; Finch, Meghan; Wyse, Rebecca; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Presseau, Justin; Clinton-McHarg, Tara; Yoong, Sze Lin

2017-04-04

While there are number of frameworks which focus on supporting the implementation of evidence based approaches, few psychometrically valid measures exist to assess constructs within these frameworks. This study aimed to develop and psychometrically assess a scale measuring each domain of the Theoretical Domains Framework for use in assessing the implementation of dietary guidelines within a non-health care setting (childcare services). A 75 item 14-domain Theoretical Domains Framework Questionnaire (TDFQ) was developed and administered via telephone interview to 202 centre based childcare service cooks who had a role in planning the service menu. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was undertaken to assess the reliability, discriminant validity and goodness of fit of the 14-domain theoretical domain framework measure. For the CFA, five iterative processes of adjustment were undertaken where 14 items were removed, resulting in a final measure consisting of 14 domains and 61 items. For the final measure: the Chi-Square goodness of fit statistic was 3447.19; the Standardized Root Mean Square Residual (SRMR) was 0.070; the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) was 0.072; and the Comparative Fit Index (CFI) had a value of 0.78. While only one of the three indices support goodness of fit of the measurement model tested, a 14-domain model with 61 items showed good discriminant validity and internally consistent items. Future research should aim to assess the psychometric properties of the developed TDFQ in other community-based settings.

Framework for e-learning assessment in dental education: a global model for the future.

PubMed

Arevalo, Carolina R; Bayne, Stephen C; Beeley, Josie A; Brayshaw, Christine J; Cox, Margaret J; Donaldson, Nora H; Elson, Bruce S; Grayden, Sharon K; Hatzipanagos, Stylianos; Johnson, Lynn A; Reynolds, Patricia A; Schönwetter, Dieter J

2013-05-01

The framework presented in this article demonstrates strategies for a global approach to e-curricula in dental education by considering a collection of outcome assessment tools. By combining the outcomes for overall assessment, a global model for a pilot project that applies e-assessment tools to virtual learning environments (VLE), including haptics, is presented. Assessment strategies from two projects, HapTEL (Haptics in Technology Enhanced Learning) and UDENTE (Universal Dental E-learning), act as case-user studies that have helped develop the proposed global framework. They incorporate additional assessment tools and include evaluations from questionnaires and stakeholders' focus groups. These measure each of the factors affecting the classical teaching/learning theory framework as defined by Entwistle in a standardized manner. A mathematical combinatorial approach is proposed to join these results together as a global assessment. With the use of haptic-based simulation learning, exercises for tooth preparation assessing enamel and dentine were compared to plastic teeth in manikins. Equivalence for student performance for haptic versus traditional preparation methods was established, thus establishing the validity of the haptic solution for performing these exercises. Further data collected from HapTEL are still being analyzed, and pilots are being conducted to validate the proposed test measures. Initial results have been encouraging, but clearly the need persists to develop additional e-assessment methods for new learning domains.

Critical analysis of e-health readiness assessment frameworks: suitability for application in developing countries.

PubMed

Mauco, Kabelo Leonard; Scott, Richard E; Mars, Maurice

2018-02-01

Introduction e-Health is an innovative way to make health services more effective and efficient and application is increasing worldwide. e-Health represents a substantial ICT investment and its failure usually results in substantial losses in time, money (including opportunity costs) and effort. Therefore it is important to assess e-health readiness prior to implementation. Several frameworks have been published on e-health readiness assessment, under various circumstances and geographical regions of the world. However, their utility for the developing world is unknown. Methods A literature review and analysis of published e-health readiness assessment frameworks or models was performed to determine if any are appropriate for broad assessment of e-health readiness in the developing world. A total of 13 papers described e-health readiness in different settings. Results and Discussion Eight types of e-health readiness were identified and no paper directly addressed all of these. The frameworks were based upon varying assumptions and perspectives. There was no underlying unifying theory underpinning the frameworks. Few assessed government and societal readiness, and none cultural readiness; all are important in the developing world. While the shortcomings of existing frameworks have been highlighted, most contain aspects that are relevant and can be drawn on when developing a framework and assessment tools for the developing world. What emerged is the need to develop different assessment tools for the various stakeholder sectors. This is an area that needs further research before attempting to develop a more generic framework for the developing world.

USING A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS TO HEALTH FROM MICROBES IN DRINKING WATER

EPA Science Inventory

The United States goal to reduce health risks from environmental exposures of all kinds of hazards has resulted in the need to assess the risks from exposure to microbes in drinking water. The model for a risk-based conceptual framework and strategy is provided by the US Environm...

Assessment of School-Based Management. [Volume I: Findings and Conclusions.] Studies of Education Reform.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wohlstetter, Priscilla; Mohrman, Susan Albers

This document presents findings of the Assessment of School-Based Management Study, which identified the conditions in schools that promote high performance through school-based management (SBM). The study's conceptual framework was based on Edward E. Lawler's (1986) model. The high-involvement framework posits that four resources must spread…

Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, J. L.; Neely, M. A.; Curran, F. M.; Christensen, E. R.; Escher, D.; Lovell, N.; Morris, Charles (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) has developed a flexible systems analysis framework to identify long-term technology needs, quantify payoffs for technology investments, and assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics area. For this, ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. Concepts for transportation systems are selected based on relevance to the ASTP and integrated concept models (ICM) of these concepts are developed. Key technologies of interest are identified and projections are made of their characteristics with respect to their impacts on key aspects of the specific concepts of interest. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework in ModelCenter. This framework permits rapid sensitivity analysis, single point design assessment, and a full probabilistic assessment of each concept with respect to both embedded and enhancing technologies. Probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP using a multivariate decision making process to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. ITAC program is currently finishing the assessment of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO), rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) concept and a TSTO turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) concept developed by the team with inputs from NASA. A baseline all rocket TSTO concept is also being developed for comparison. Boeing has recently submitted a performance model for their Flexible Aerospace System Solution for Tomorrow (FASST) concept and the ISAT program will provide inputs for a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) TBCC based concept in the near-term. Both of these latter concepts will be analyzed within the ITAC framework over the summer. This paper provides a status update of the ITAC program.

Adapting a Framework for Assessing Students' Approaches to Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bennett, Steven Carl

2017-01-01

We used an "approach to learning" theoretical framework to explicate the ways students engage in scientific modeling. Approach to learning theory suggests that when students approach learning deeply, they link science concepts with prior knowledge and experiences. Conversely, when students engage in a surface approach to learning, they…

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

A Framework for Assessing the Performance of Nonprofit Organizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chongmyoung; Nowell, Branda

2015-01-01

Performance measurement has gained increased importance in the nonprofit sector, and contemporary literature is populated with numerous performance measurement frameworks. In this article, we seek to accomplish two goals. First, we review contemporary models of nonprofit performance measurement to develop an integrated framework in order to…

Opportunities and Challenges in Supply-Side Simulation: Physician-Based Models

PubMed Central

Gresenz, Carole Roan; Auerbach, David I; Duarte, Fabian

2013-01-01

Objective To provide a conceptual framework and to assess the availability of empirical data for supply-side microsimulation modeling in the context of health care. Data Sources Multiple secondary data sources, including the American Community Survey, Health Tracking Physician Survey, and SK&A physician database. Study Design We apply our conceptual framework to one entity in the health care market—physicians—and identify, assess, and compare data available for physician-based simulation models. Principal Findings Our conceptual framework describes three broad types of data required for supply-side microsimulation modeling. Our assessment of available data for modeling physician behavior suggests broad comparability across various sources on several dimensions and highlights the need for significant integration of data across multiple sources to provide a platform adequate for modeling. A growing literature provides potential estimates for use as behavioral parameters that could serve as the models' engines. Sources of data for simulation modeling that account for the complex organizational and financial relationships among physicians and other supply-side entities are limited. Conclusions A key challenge for supply-side microsimulation modeling is optimally combining available data to harness their collective power. Several possibilities also exist for novel data collection. These have the potential to serve as catalysts for the next generation of supply-side-focused simulation models to inform health policy. PMID:23347041

Development of an integrated economic and ecological framework for ecosystem-based fisheries management in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, D.; Hoagland, P.; Dalton, T. M.; Thunberg, E. M.

2012-09-01

We present an integrated economic-ecological framework designed to help assess the implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) in New England. We develop the framework by linking a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of a coastal economy to an end-to-end (E2E) model of a marine food web for Georges Bank. We focus on the New England region using coastal county economic data for a restricted set of industry sectors and marine ecological data for three top level trophic feeding guilds: planktivores, benthivores, and piscivores. We undertake numerical simulations to model the welfare effects of changes in alternative combinations of yields from feeding guilds and alternative manifestations of biological productivity. We estimate the economic and distributional effects of these alternative simulations across a range of consumer income levels. This framework could be used to extend existing methodologies for assessing the impacts on human communities of groundfish stock rebuilding strategies, such as those expected through the implementation of the sector management program in the US northeast fishery. We discuss other possible applications of and modifications and limitations to the framework.

A Third-Order Item Response Theory Model for Modeling the Effects of Domains and Subdomains in Large-Scale Educational Assessment Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rijmen, Frank; Jeon, Minjeong; von Davier, Matthias; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

2014-01-01

Second-order item response theory models have been used for assessments consisting of several domains, such as content areas. We extend the second-order model to a third-order model for assessments that include subdomains nested in domains. Using a graphical model framework, it is shown how the model does not suffer from the curse of…

A Simulation and Modeling Framework for Space Situational Awareness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olivier, S S

This paper describes the development and initial demonstration of a new, integrated modeling and simulation framework, encompassing the space situational awareness enterprise, for quantitatively assessing the benefit of specific sensor systems, technologies and data analysis techniques. The framework is based on a flexible, scalable architecture to enable efficient, physics-based simulation of the current SSA enterprise, and to accommodate future advancements in SSA systems. In particular, the code is designed to take advantage of massively parallel computer systems available, for example, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The details of the modeling and simulation framework are described, including hydrodynamic models of satellitemore » intercept and debris generation, orbital propagation algorithms, radar cross section calculations, optical brightness calculations, generic radar system models, generic optical system models, specific Space Surveillance Network models, object detection algorithms, orbit determination algorithms, and visualization tools. The use of this integrated simulation and modeling framework on a specific scenario involving space debris is demonstrated.« less

Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Modeling spray drift and runoff-related inputs of pesticides to receiving water.

PubMed

Zhang, Xuyang; Luo, Yuzhou; Goh, Kean S

2018-03-01

Pesticides move to surface water via various pathways including surface runoff, spray drift and subsurface flow. Little is known about the relative contributions of surface runoff and spray drift in agricultural watersheds. This study develops a modeling framework to address the contribution of spray drift to the total loadings of pesticides in receiving water bodies. The modeling framework consists of a GIS module for identifying drift potential, the AgDRIFT model for simulating spray drift, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating various hydrological and landscape processes including surface runoff and transport of pesticides. The modeling framework was applied on the Orestimba Creek Watershed, California. Monitoring data collected from daily samples were used for model evaluation. Pesticide mass deposition on the Orestimba Creek ranged from 0.08 to 6.09% of applied mass. Monitoring data suggests that surface runoff was the major pathway for pesticide entering water bodies, accounting for 76% of the annual loading; the rest 24% from spray drift. The results from the modeling framework showed 81 and 19%, respectively, for runoff and spray drift. Spray drift contributed over half of the mass loading during summer months. The slightly lower spray drift contribution as predicted by the modeling framework was mainly due to SWAT's under-prediction of pesticide mass loading during summer and over-prediction of the loading during winter. Although model simulations were associated with various sources of uncertainties, the overall performance of the modeling framework was satisfactory as evaluated by multiple statistics: for simulation of daily flow, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) ranged from 0.61 to 0.74 and the percent bias (PBIAS) < 28%; for daily pesticide loading, NSE = 0.18 and PBIAS = -1.6%. This modeling framework will be useful for assessing the relative exposure from pesticides related to spray drift and runoff in receiving waters and the design of management practices for mitigating pesticide exposure within a watershed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Ecosystem Services and Climate Change Considerations for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework “iemWatersheds” has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water

Development and assessment of an integrated ecological modelling framework to assess the effect of investments in wastewater treatment on water quality.

PubMed

Holguin-Gonzalez, Javier E; Boets, Pieter; Everaert, Gert; Pauwels, Ine S; Lock, Koen; Gobeyn, Sacha; Benedetti, Lorenzo; Amerlinck, Youri; Nopens, Ingmar; Goethals, Peter L M

2014-01-01

Worldwide, large investments in wastewater treatment are made to improve water quality. However, the impacts of these investments on river water quality are often not quantified. To assess water quality, the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires an integrated approach. The aim of this study was to develop an integrated ecological modelling framework for the River Drava (Croatia) that includes physical-chemical and hydromorphological characteristics as well as the ecological river water quality status. The developed submodels and the integrated model showed accurate predictions when comparing the modelled results to the observations. Dissolved oxygen and nitrogen concentrations (ammonium and organic nitrogen) were the most important variables in determining the ecological water quality (EWQ). The result of three potential investment scenarios of the wastewater treatment infrastructure in the city of Varaždin on the EWQ of the River Drava was assessed. From this scenario-based analysis, it was concluded that upgrading the existing wastewater treatment plant with nitrogen and phosphorus removal will be insufficient to reach a good EWQ. Therefore, other point and diffuse pollution sources in the area should also be monitored and remediated to meet the European WFD standards.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health.

PubMed

Fock, Heino O; Kraus, Gerd

2016-01-01

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health

PubMed Central

Kraus, Gerd

2016-01-01

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems. PMID:27509185

A generic framework for individual-based modelling and physical-biological interaction

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The increased availability of high-resolution ocean data globally has enabled more detailed analyses of physical-biological interactions and their consequences to the ecosystem. We present IBMlib, which is a versatile, portable and computationally effective framework for conducting Lagrangian simulations in the marine environment. The purpose of the framework is to handle complex individual-level biological models of organisms, combined with realistic 3D oceanographic model of physics and biogeochemistry describing the environment of the organisms without assumptions about spatial or temporal scales. The open-source framework features a minimal robust interface to facilitate the coupling between individual-level biological models and oceanographic models, and we provide application examples including forward/backward simulations, habitat connectivity calculations, assessing ocean conditions, comparison of physical circulation models, model ensemble runs and recently posterior Eulerian simulations using the IBMlib framework. We present the code design ideas behind the longevity of the code, our implementation experiences, as well as code performance benchmarking. The framework may contribute substantially to progresses in representing, understanding, predicting and eventually managing marine ecosystems. PMID:29351280

Assessing Vocational Interests in the Basque Country Using Paired Comparison Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elosua, Paula

2007-01-01

This article proposes the Thurstonian paired comparison model to assess vocational preferences and uses this approach to evaluate the Realistic, Investigative, Artistic, Social, Enterprise, and Conventional (RIASEC) model in the Basque Country (Spain). First, one unrestricted model is estimated in the Structural Equation Modelling framework using…

Some Statistics for Assessing Person-Fit Based on Continuous-Response Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrando, Pere Joan

2010-01-01

This article proposes several statistics for assessing individual fit based on two unidimensional models for continuous responses: linear factor analysis and Samejima's continuous response model. Both models are approached using a common framework based on underlying response variables and are formulated at the individual level as fixed regression…

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

CAN A MODEL TRANSFERABILITY FRAMEWORK IMPROVE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Budget constraints and policies that limit primary data collection have fueled a practice of transferring estimates (or models to generate estimates) of ecological endpoints from sites where primary data exists to sites where little to no primary data were collected. Whereas benefit transfer has been well studied; there is no comparable framework for evaluating whether model transfer between sites is justifiable. We developed and applied a transferability assessment framework to a case study involving forest carbon sequestration for soils in Tillamook Bay, Oregon. The carbon sequestration capacity of forested watersheds is an important ecosystem service in the effort to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions. We used our framework, incorporating three basic steps (model selection, defining context variables, assessing logistical constraints) for evaluating model transferability, to compare estimates of carbon storage capacity derived from two models, COMET-Farm and Yasso. We applied each model to Tillamook Bay and compared results to data extracted from the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) using ArcGIS. Context variables considered were: geographic proximity to Tillamook, dominant tree species, climate and soil type. Preliminary analyses showed that estimates from COMET-Farm were more similar to SSURGO data, likely because model context variables (e.g. proximity to Tillamook and dominant tree species) were identical to those in Tillamook. In contras

Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit, E-mail: chaunjit@g.sut.ac.th; Bond, Alan, E-mail: alan.bond@uea.ac.uk; Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, Internal Box 375, North West University

2013-11-15

This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria acrossmore » the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria.« less

A Framework for Designing and Developing Multimedia-Based Performance Assessment in Vocational Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Klerk, Sebastiaan; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Eggen, Theo J. H. M.

2018-01-01

The development of any assessment should be an iterative and careful process. Ideally, this process is guided by a well-defined framework (see for example Downing in: Downing and Haladyna (eds) "Handbook of test development," Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, 2006; Mislevy et al. in "On the roles of task model variables in…

Assessing Vital Signs: Applying Two Participatory Evaluation Frameworks to the Evaluation of a College of Nursing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connors, Susan C.; Magilvy, Joan K.

2011-01-01

Evaluation research has been in progress to clarify the concept of participatory evaluation and to assess its impact. Recently, two theoretical frameworks have been offered--Daigneault and Jacob's participatory evaluation measurement index and Champagne and Smits' model of practical participatory evaluation. In this case report, we apply these…

Appreciative Inquiry of Texas Elementary Classroom Assessment: Action Research for a School-Wide Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clint, Frank Anthony

2012-01-01

This qualitative, action-research study used themes from appreciative interviews of Texas elementary teachers to recommend a framework for a school-wide assessment model for a Texas elementary school. The specific problem was that the Texas accountability system used a yearly measurement that failed to track progress over time and failed to…

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

PubMed Central

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-01-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

A Watershed-based spatially-explicit demonstration of an Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework for Ecosystem Services in the Coal River Basin (WV, USA)

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate a spatially-explicit regional assessment of current condition of aquatic ecoservices in the Coal River Basin (CRB), with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The integrated modeling framework (IMF) forecasts water quality and quant...

Personality assessment and model comparison with behavioral data: A statistical framework and empirical demonstration with bonobos (Pan paniscus).

PubMed

Martin, Jordan S; Suarez, Scott A

2017-08-01

Interest in quantifying consistent among-individual variation in primate behavior, also known as personality, has grown rapidly in recent decades. Although behavioral coding is the most frequently utilized method for assessing primate personality, limitations in current statistical practice prevent researchers' from utilizing the full potential of their coding datasets. These limitations include the use of extensive data aggregation, not modeling biologically relevant sources of individual variance during repeatability estimation, not partitioning between-individual (co)variance prior to modeling personality structure, the misuse of principal component analysis, and an over-reliance upon exploratory statistical techniques to compare personality models across populations, species, and data collection methods. In this paper, we propose a statistical framework for primate personality research designed to address these limitations. Our framework synthesizes recently developed mixed-effects modeling approaches for quantifying behavioral variation with an information-theoretic model selection paradigm for confirmatory personality research. After detailing a multi-step analytic procedure for personality assessment and model comparison, we employ this framework to evaluate seven models of personality structure in zoo-housed bonobos (Pan paniscus). We find that differences between sexes, ages, zoos, time of observation, and social group composition contributed to significant behavioral variance. Independently of these factors, however, personality nonetheless accounted for a moderate to high proportion of variance in average behavior across observational periods. A personality structure derived from past rating research receives the strongest support relative to our model set. This model suggests that personality variation across the measured behavioral traits is best described by two correlated but distinct dimensions reflecting individual differences in affiliation and sociability (Agreeableness) as well as activity level, social play, and neophilia toward non-threatening stimuli (Openness). These results underscore the utility of our framework for quantifying personality in primates and facilitating greater integration between the behavioral ecological and comparative psychological approaches to personality research. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications; Ekener, Elisabeth

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach,more » and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.« less

Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

PubMed

Füssel, Hans-Martin

2008-02-01

Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

Quantitative assessment of computational models for retinotopic map formation

PubMed Central

Sterratt, David C; Cutts, Catherine S; Willshaw, David J; Eglen, Stephen J

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Molecular and activity‐based cues acting together are thought to guide retinal axons to their terminal sites in vertebrate optic tectum or superior colliculus (SC) to form an ordered map of connections. The details of mechanisms involved, and the degree to which they might interact, are still not well understood. We have developed a framework within which existing computational models can be assessed in an unbiased and quantitative manner against a set of experimental data curated from the mouse retinocollicular system. Our framework facilitates comparison between models, testing new models against known phenotypes and simulating new phenotypes in existing models. We have used this framework to assess four representative models that combine Eph/ephrin gradients and/or activity‐based mechanisms and competition. Two of the models were updated from their original form to fit into our framework. The models were tested against five different phenotypes: wild type, Isl2‐EphA3 ki/ki, Isl2‐EphA3 ki/+, ephrin‐A2,A3,A5 triple knock‐out (TKO), and Math5 −/− (Atoh7). Two models successfully reproduced the extent of the Math5 −/− anteromedial projection, but only one of those could account for the collapse point in Isl2‐EphA3 ki/+. The models needed a weak anteroposterior gradient in the SC to reproduce the residual order in the ephrin‐A2,A3,A5 TKO phenotype, suggesting either an incomplete knock‐out or the presence of another guidance molecule. Our article demonstrates the importance of testing retinotopic models against as full a range of phenotypes as possible, and we have made available MATLAB software, we wrote to facilitate this process. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Develop Neurobiol 75: 641–666, 2015 PMID:25367067

E-health readiness assessment framework in iran.

PubMed

Rezai-Rad, M; Vaezi, R; Nattagh, F

2012-01-01

Concept of e-readiness is used in many areas such as e-business, e-commerce, e-government, and e-banking. In terms of healthcare, e-readiness is a rather new concept, and is propounded under the title of E-healthcare. E-health readiness refers to the readiness of communities and healthcare institutions for the expected changes brought by programs related to Information and Communications Technology (lCT). The present research is conducted aiming at designing E-health Readiness Assessment Framework (EHRAF) in Iran. The e-health readiness assessment framework was designed based on reviewing literature on e-readiness assessment models and opinions of ICT and health experts. In the next step, Delphi method was used to develop and test the designed framework. Three questionnaires developed to test and modify the model while determining weights of the indices; afterward they were either sent to experts through email or delivered to them in face. The designed framework approved with 4 dimensions, 11 constituents and 58 indices. Technical readiness had the highest importance coefficient (0.256099), and the other dimensions were of the next levels of coefficient importance: core readiness (0.25520), social communication readiness (0.244658), and engagement readiness (0.244039). The framework presents the movement route and investment priorities in e-health in Iran. The proposed framework is a good instrument for measuring the e-readiness in health centers in Iran, and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of these centers to access ICT and its implementation for more effectiveness and for analyzing digital divide between them, as well.

E-Health Readiness Assessment Framework in Iran

PubMed Central

Rezai-Rad, M; Vaezi, R; Nattagh, F

2012-01-01

Background: Concept of e-readiness is used in many areas such as e-business, e-commerce, e-government, and e-banking. In terms of healthcare, e-readiness is a rather new concept, and is propounded under the title of E-healthcare. E-health readiness refers to the readiness of communities and healthcare institutions for the expected changes brought by programs related to Information and Communications Technology (lCT). The present research is conducted aiming at designing E-health Readiness Assessment Framework (EHRAF) in Iran. Methods: The e-health readiness assessment framework was designed based on reviewing literature on e-readiness assessment models and opinions of ICT and health experts. In the next step, Delphi method was used to develop and test the designed framework. Three questionnaires developed to test and modify the model while determining weights of the indices; afterward they were either sent to experts through email or delivered to them in face. Results: The designed framework approved with 4 dimensions, 11 constituents and 58 indices. Technical readiness had the highest importance coefficient (0.256099), and the other dimensions were of the next levels of coefficient importance: core readiness (0.25520), social communication readiness (0.244658), and engagement readiness (0.244039). Conclusion: The framework presents the movement route and investment priorities in e-health in Iran. The proposed framework is a good instrument for measuring the e-readiness in health centers in Iran, and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of these centers to access ICT and its implementation for more effectiveness and for analyzing digital divide between them, as well. PMID:23304661

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

2016-03-15

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards Integration of Ecosystem and Human Health: A Novel Conceptual Framework to Operationalise Ecological Public Health and to Incorporate Distal and Proximal Effects of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, S.; Fleming, L. E.; Beck, S.; Austen, M.; Morris, G.; White, M.; Taylor, T. J.; Orr, N.; Osborne, N. J.; Depledge, M.

2014-12-01

Conceptual models for problem framing in environmental (EIA) and health impact assessment (HIA) share similar concepts, but differ in their scientific or policy focus, methodologies and underlying causal chains, and the degree of complexity and scope. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework used by the European Environment Agency, the OECD and others and the Integrated Science for Society and the Environment (ISSE) frameworks are widely applied in policy appraisal and impact assessments. While DPSIR is applied across different policy domains, the ISSE framework is used in Ecosystem Services assessments. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) model extends DPSIR by separating exposure from effect, adding context as a modifier of effect, and susceptibility to exposures due to socio-economic, demographic or other determinants. While continuously evolving, the application of conceptual frameworks in policy appraisals mainly occurs within established discipline boundaries. However, drivers and environmental states, as well as policy measures and actions, affect both human and ecosystem receptors. Furthermore, unintended consequences of policy actions are seldom constrained within discipline or policy silos. Thus, an integrated conceptual model is needed, accounting for the full causal chain affecting human and ecosystem health in any assessment. We propose a novel model integrating HIA methods and ecosystem services in an attempt to operationalise the emerging concept of "Ecological Public Health." The conceptual approach of the ecosystem-enriched DPSEEA model ("eDPSEEA") has stimulated wide-spread debates and feedback. We will present eDPSEEA as a stakeholder engagement process and a conceptual model, using illustrative case studies of climate change as a starting point, not a complete solution, for the integration of human and ecosystem health impact assessment as a key challenge in a rapidly changing world. Rayner G and Lang T Ecological Public Health: Reshaping the Conditions for Good Health. Routledge Publishers; 2012.Reis S, Morris G, Fleming LE, Beck S, Taylor T, White M, Depledge MH, Steinle S, Sabel CE, Cowie H, Hurley F, Dick JMcP, Smith RI, Austen M (2013) Integrating Health & Environmental Impact Analysis. Public Health.

Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: A framework for model evolution within environmental observatories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hamilton, David P.; Hanson, Paul C.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Coletti, Janaine Z.; Read, Jordan S.; Ibelings, Bas W.; Valesini, Fiona J.; Brookes, Justin D.

2015-09-01

Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchment management, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientists and policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are required that are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in response to multiple stressors. This paper explores the abilities and limitations of current model approaches in meeting this challenge, and outlines a strategy based on integration of flexible model libraries and data from observation networks, within a learning framework, as a means to improve the accuracy and scope of model predictions. The framework is comprised of a data assimilation component that utilizes diverse data streams from sensor networks, and a second component whereby model structural evolution can occur once the model is assessed against theoretically relevant metrics of system function. Given the scale and transdisciplinary nature of the prediction challenge, network science initiatives are identified as a means to develop and integrate diverse model libraries and workflows, and to obtain consensus on diagnostic approaches to model assessment that can guide model adaptation. We outline how such a framework can help us explore the theory of how aquatic systems respond to change by bridging bottom-up and top-down lines of enquiry, and, in doing so, also advance the role of prediction in aquatic ecosystem management.

A generic framework to simulate realistic lung, liver and renal pathologies in CT imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, Justin; Samei, Ehsan

2014-11-01

Realistic three-dimensional (3D) mathematical models of subtle lesions are essential for many computed tomography (CT) studies focused on performance evaluation and optimization. In this paper, we develop a generic mathematical framework that describes the 3D size, shape, contrast, and contrast-profile characteristics of a lesion, as well as a method to create lesion models based on CT data of real lesions. Further, we implemented a technique to insert the lesion models into CT images in order to create hybrid CT datasets. This framework was used to create a library of realistic lesion models and corresponding hybrid CT images. The goodness of fit of the models was assessed using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the visual appearance of the hybrid images was assessed with an observer study using images of both real and simulated lesions and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis. The average R2 of the lesion models was 0.80, implying that the models provide a good fit to real lesion data. The area under the ROC curve was 0.55, implying that the observers could not readily distinguish between real and simulated lesions. Therefore, we conclude that the lesion-modeling framework presented in this paper can be used to create realistic lesion models and hybrid CT images. These models could be instrumental in performance evaluation and optimization of novel CT systems.

Effects of agricultural conservation practices on N loads in the Mississippi-Atchafalya River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A modeling framework consisting of a farm-scale model, Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX); a watershedscale model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); and databases was used in the Conservation Effects Assessment Project to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practi...

A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives.

EPA Science Inventory

The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism&#...

Qualitative Assessment of Inquiry-Based Teaching Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briggs, Michael; Long, George; Owens, Katrina

2011-01-01

A new approach to teaching method assessment using student focused qualitative studies and the theoretical framework of mental models is proposed. The methodology is considered specifically for the advantages it offers when applied to the assessment of inquiry-based teaching methods. The theoretical foundation of mental models is discussed, and…

Wind energy on the horizon in British Columbia. A review and evaluation of the British Columbia wind energy planning framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Jason

This study examines the wind energy planning frameworks from ten North American jurisdictions, drawing important lessons that British Columbia could use to build on its current model which has been criticized for its limited scope and restriction of local government powers. This study contributes to similar studies conducted by Kimrey (2006), Longston (2006), and Eriksen (2009). This study concludes that inclusion of wind resource zones delineated through strategic environmental assessment, programme assessment, and conducting research-oriented studies could improve the current British Columbia planning framework. The framework should also strengthen its bat impact assessment practices and incorporate habitat compensation. This research also builds upon Rosenberg's (2008) wind energy planning framework typologies. I conclude that the typology utilized in Texas should be employed in British Columbia in order to facilitate utilizing wind power. The only adaptation needed is the establishment of a cross-jurisdictional review committee for project assessment to address concerns about local involvement and site-specific environmental and social concerns.

Multistage Complexity in Language Proficiency Assessment: A Framework for Aligning Theoretical Perspectives, Test Development, and Psychometrics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luecht, Richard M.

2003-01-01

This article contends that the necessary links between constructs and test scores/decisions in language assessment must be established through principled design procedures that align three models: (1) a theoretical construct model; (2) a test development model; and (3) a psychometric scoring model. The theoretical construct model articulates the…

A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals.

PubMed

Csiszar, Susan A; Meyer, David E; Dionisio, Kathie L; Egeghy, Peter; Isaacs, Kristin K; Price, Paul S; Scanlon, Kelly A; Tan, Yu-Mei; Thomas, Kent; Vallero, Daniel; Bare, Jane C

2016-11-01

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products.

Using the Dynamic Model to Identify Stages of Teacher Skills in Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christoforidou, Margarita; Xirafidou, Elisavet

2014-01-01

The article presents the results of two cross-sectional studies that investigate teachers' skills in using various techniques of assessment in mathematics by taking into account the four phases of assessment. The five dimensions of the dynamic model are also taken into account in proposing a framework for measuring teacher skills in assessment.…

A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input-output environmental life cycle assessment models

EPA Science Inventory

Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future unc...

A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input/output environmental life cycle assessment models

EPA Science Inventory

Future year emissions depend highly on economic, technological, societal and regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze technology development pathways and changes in consumer preferences, and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns while considering fut...

A multi-scale, multi-disciplinary approach for assessing the technological, economic and environmental performance of bio-based chemicals.

PubMed

Herrgård, Markus; Sukumara, Sumesh; Campodonico, Miguel; Zhuang, Kai

2015-12-01

In recent years, bio-based chemicals have gained interest as a renewable alternative to petrochemicals. However, there is a significant need to assess the technological, biological, economic and environmental feasibility of bio-based chemicals, particularly during the early research phase. Recently, the Multi-scale framework for Sustainable Industrial Chemicals (MuSIC) was introduced to address this issue by integrating modelling approaches at different scales ranging from cellular to ecological scales. This framework can be further extended by incorporating modelling of the petrochemical value chain and the de novo prediction of metabolic pathways connecting existing host metabolism to desirable chemical products. This multi-scale, multi-disciplinary framework for quantitative assessment of bio-based chemicals will play a vital role in supporting engineering, strategy and policy decisions as we progress towards a sustainable chemical industry. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events based on Library tools (CAMEL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastaetter, L.; Boblitt, J. M.; DeZeeuw, D.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Wiegand, C.

2017-12-01

At the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), the assessment of modeling skill using a library of model-data comparison metrics is taken to the next level by fully integrating the ability to request a series of runs with the same model parameters for a list of events. The CAMEL framework initiates and runs a series of selected, pre-defined simulation settings for participating models (e.g., WSA-ENLIL, SWMF-SC+IH for the heliosphere, SWMF-GM, OpenGGCM, LFM, GUMICS for the magnetosphere) and performs post-processing using existing tools for a host of different output parameters. The framework compares the resulting time series data with respective observational data and computes a suite of metrics such as Prediction Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error, Probability of Detection, Probability of False Detection, Heidke Skill Score for each model-data pair. The system then plots scores by event and aggregated over all events for all participating models and run settings. We are building on past experiences with model-data comparisons of magnetosphere and ionosphere model outputs in GEM2008, GEM-CEDAR CETI2010 and Operational Space Weather Model challenges (2010-2013). We can apply the framework also to solar-heliosphere as well as radiation belt models. The CAMEL framework takes advantage of model simulations described with Space Physics Archive Search and Extract (SPASE) metadata and a database backend design developed for a next-generation Run-on-Request system at the CCMC.

A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives

EPA Science Inventory

The value of models that link organism-level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERA) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism-level en...

PHOTOTOXIC POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS IN SEDIMENTS: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH FOR ASSESSING RISK

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past five years we have developed a number of models which will be combined in an integrated framework with chemical-monitoring information to assess the potential for widespread risk of phototoxic PAHs in sediments.

Multimedia-modeling integration development environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pelton, Mitchell A.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

2002-09-02

There are many framework systems available; however, the purpose of the framework presented here is to capitalize on the successes of the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) and Multi-media Multi-pathway Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) methodology as applied to the Hazardous Waste Identification Rule (HWIR) while focusing on the development of software tools to simplify the module developer?s effort of integrating a module into the framework.

Using the Resources Framework to Design, Assess, and Refine Interventions on Pressure in Fluids

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Daniel E.; Meredith, Dawn C.

2017-01-01

The resources framework provides a useful and generative model of student thinking and learning. In particular, it suggests various strategies for instruction such as priming resources and refining intuition that allow students to build on knowledge they already have. In this paper, we describe the affordances of the resources framework in guiding…

Theories, models and frameworks used in capacity building interventions relevant to public health: a systematic review.

PubMed

Bergeron, Kim; Abdi, Samiya; DeCorby, Kara; Mensah, Gloria; Rempel, Benjamin; Manson, Heather

2017-11-28

There is limited research on capacity building interventions that include theoretical foundations. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify underlying theories, models and frameworks used to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health practice. The aim is to inform and improve capacity building practices and services offered by public health organizations. Four search strategies were used: 1) electronic database searching; 2) reference lists of included papers; 3) key informant consultation; and 4) grey literature searching. Inclusion and exclusion criteria are outlined with included papers focusing on capacity building, learning plans, professional development plans in combination with tools, resources, processes, procedures, steps, model, framework, guideline, described in a public health or healthcare setting, or non-government, government, or community organizations as they relate to healthcare, and explicitly or implicitly mention a theory, model and/or framework that grounds the type of capacity building approach developed. Quality assessment were performed on all included articles. Data analysis included a process for synthesizing, analyzing and presenting descriptive summaries, categorizing theoretical foundations according to which theory, model and/or framework was used and whether or not the theory, model or framework was implied or explicitly identified. Nineteen articles were included in this review. A total of 28 theories, models and frameworks were identified. Of this number, two theories (Diffusion of Innovations and Transformational Learning), two models (Ecological and Interactive Systems Framework for Dissemination and Implementation) and one framework (Bloom's Taxonomy of Learning) were identified as the most frequently cited. This review identifies specific theories, models and frameworks to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health organizations. It provides public health practitioners with a menu of potentially usable theories, models and frameworks to support capacity building efforts. The findings also support the need for the use of theories, models or frameworks to be intentional, explicitly identified, referenced and for it to be clearly outlined how they were applied to the capacity building intervention.

A new framework for quantifying uncertainties in modelling studies for future climates - how more certain are CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations compared to CMIP3?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sivakumar, B.; Mehrotra, R.

2014-12-01

We outline a new framework for assessing uncertainties in model simulations, be they hydro-ecological simulations for known scenarios, or climate simulations for assumed scenarios representing the future. This framework is illustrated here using GCM projections for future climates for hydrologically relevant variables (precipitation and temperature), with the uncertainty segregated into three dominant components - model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty (representing greenhouse gas emission scenarios), and ensemble uncertainty (representing uncertain initial conditions and states). A novel uncertainty metric, the Square Root Error Variance (SREV), is used to quantify the uncertainties involved. The SREV requires: (1) Interpolating raw and corrected GCM outputs to a common grid; (2) Converting these to percentiles; (3) Estimating SREV for model, scenario, initial condition and total uncertainty at each percentile; and (4) Transforming SREV to a time series. The outcome is a spatially varying series of SREVs associated with each model that can be used to assess how uncertain the system is at each simulated point or time. This framework, while illustrated in a climate change context, is completely applicable for assessment of uncertainties any modelling framework may be subject to. The proposed method is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature from 6 CMIP3 and 13 CMIP5 GCMs across the world. For CMIP3, B1, A1B and A2 scenarios whereas for CMIP5, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representing low, medium and high emissions are considered. For both CMIP3 and CMIP5, model structure is the largest source of uncertainty, which reduces significantly after correcting for biases. Scenario uncertainly increases, especially for temperature, in future due to divergence of the three emission scenarios analysed. While CMIP5 precipitation simulations exhibit a small reduction in total uncertainty over CMIP3, there is almost no reduction observed for temperature projections. Estimation of uncertainty in both space and time sheds lights on the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainties in GCM outputs, providing an effective platform for risk-based assessments of any alternate plans or decisions that may be formulated using GCM simulations.

Assessing Graduate Attributes: Building a Criteria-Based Competency Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ipperciel, Donald; ElAtia, Samira

2014-01-01

Graduate attributes (GAs) have become a necessary framework of reference for the 21st century competency-based model of higher education. However, the issue of evaluating and assessing GAs still remains unchartered territory. In this article, we present a criteria-based method of assessment that allows for an institution-wide comparison of the…

Automated antibody structure prediction using Accelrys tools: Results and best practices

PubMed Central

Fasnacht, Marc; Butenhof, Ken; Goupil-Lamy, Anne; Hernandez-Guzman, Francisco; Huang, Hongwei; Yan, Lisa

2014-01-01

We describe the methodology and results from our participation in the second Antibody Modeling Assessment experiment. During the experiment we predicted the structure of eleven unpublished antibody Fv fragments. Our prediction methods centered on template-based modeling; potential templates were selected from an antibody database based on their sequence similarity to the target in the framework regions. Depending on the quality of the templates, we constructed models of the antibody framework regions either using a single, chimeric or multiple template approach. The hypervariable loop regions in the initial models were rebuilt by grafting the corresponding regions from suitable templates onto the model. For the H3 loop region, we further refined models using ab initio methods. The final models were subjected to constrained energy minimization to resolve severe local structural problems. The analysis of the models submitted show that Accelrys tools allow for the construction of quite accurate models for the framework and the canonical CDR regions, with RMSDs to the X-ray structure on average below 1 Å for most of these regions. The results show that accurate prediction of the H3 hypervariable loops remains a challenge. Furthermore, model quality assessment of the submitted models show that the models are of quite high quality, with local geometry assessment scores similar to that of the target X-ray structures. Proteins 2014; 82:1583–1598. © 2014 The Authors. Proteins published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:24833271

The Gain-Loss Model: A Probabilistic Skill Multimap Model for Assessing Learning Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robusto, Egidio; Stefanutti, Luca; Anselmi, Pasquale

2010-01-01

Within the theoretical framework of knowledge space theory, a probabilistic skill multimap model for assessing learning processes is proposed. The learning process of a student is modeled as a function of the student's knowledge and of an educational intervention on the attainment of specific skills required to solve problems in a knowledge…

The role of the time-kill kinetics assay as part of a preclinical modeling framework for assessing the activity of anti-tuberculosis drugs.

PubMed

Bax, Hannelore I; Bakker-Woudenberg, Irma A J M; de Vogel, Corné P; van der Meijden, Aart; Verbon, Annelies; de Steenwinkel, Jurriaan E M

2017-07-01

Novel treatment strategies for tuberculosis are urgently needed. Many different preclinical models assessing anti-tuberculosis drug activity are available, but it is yet unclear which combination of models is most predictive of clinical treatment efficacy. The aim of this study was to determine the role of our in vitro time kill-kinetics assay as an asset to a predictive preclinical modeling framework assessing anti-tuberculosis drug activity. The concentration- and time-dependent mycobacterial killing capacities of six anti-tuberculosis drugs were determined during exposure as single drugs or in dual, triple and quadruple combinations towards a Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing genotype strain and drug resistance was assessed. Streptomycin, rifampicin and isoniazid were most active against fast-growing M. tuberculosis. Isoniazid with rifampicin or high dose ethambutol were the only synergistic drug combinations. The addition of rifampicin or streptomycin to isoniazid prevented isoniazid resistance. In vitro ranking showed agreement with early bactericidal activity in tuberculosis patients for some but not all anti-tuberculosis drugs. The time-kill kinetics assay provides important information on the mycobacterial killing dynamics of anti-tuberculosis drugs during the early phase of drug exposure. As such, this assay is a valuable component of the preclinical modeling framework. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A lava flow simulation model for the development of volcanic hazard maps for Mount Etna (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damiani, M. L.; Groppelli, G.; Norini, G.; Bertino, E.; Gigliuto, A.; Nucita, A.

2006-05-01

Volcanic hazard assessment is of paramount importance for the safeguard of the resources exposed to volcanic hazards. In the paper we present ELFM, a lava flow simulation model for the evaluation of the lava flow hazard on Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), the most important active volcano in Europe. The major contributions of the paper are: (a) a detailed specification of the lava flow simulation model and the specification of an algorithm implementing it; (b) the definition of a methodological framework for applying the model to the specific volcano. For what concerns the former issue, we propose an extended version of an existing stochastic model that has been applied so far only to the assessment of the volcanic hazard on Lanzarote and Tenerife (Canary Islands). Concerning the methodological framework, we claim model validation is definitely needed for assessing the effectiveness of the lava flow simulation model. To that extent a strategy has been devised for the generation of simulation experiments and evaluation of their outcomes.

A Modelling Framework to Assess the Effect of Pressures on River Abiotic Habitat Conditions and Biota

PubMed Central

Kail, Jochem; Guse, Björn; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Kleinhans, Maarten; Schuurman, Filip; Fohrer, Nicola; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian

2015-01-01

River biota are affected by global reach-scale pressures, but most approaches for predicting biota of rivers focus on river reach or segment scale processes and habitats. Moreover, these approaches do not consider long-term morphological changes that affect habitat conditions. In this study, a modelling framework was further developed and tested to assess the effect of pressures at different spatial scales on reach-scale habitat conditions and biota. Ecohydrological and 1D hydrodynamic models were used to predict discharge and water quality at the catchment scale and the resulting water level at the downstream end of a study reach. Long-term reach morphology was modelled using empirical regime equations, meander migration and 2D morphodynamic models. The respective flow and substrate conditions in the study reach were predicted using a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the suitability of these habitats was assessed with novel habitat models. In addition, dispersal models for fish and macroinvertebrates were developed to assess the re-colonization potential and to finally compare habitat suitability and the availability / ability of species to colonize these habitats. Applicability was tested and model performance was assessed by comparing observed and predicted conditions in the lowland Treene River in northern Germany. Technically, it was possible to link the different models, but future applications would benefit from the development of open source software for all modelling steps to enable fully automated model runs. Future research needs concern the physical modelling of long-term morphodynamics, feedback of biota (e.g., macrophytes) on abiotic habitat conditions, species interactions, and empirical data on the hydraulic habitat suitability and dispersal abilities of macroinvertebrates. The modelling framework is flexible and allows for including additional models and investigating different research and management questions, e.g., in climate impact research as well as river restoration and management. PMID:26114430

Framework for modelling the cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions aimed to reduce youth delinquency.

PubMed

Schawo, Saskia J; van Eeren, Hester; Soeteman, Djira I; van der Veldt, Marie-Christine; Noom, Marc J; Brouwer, Werner; Busschbach, Jan J V; Hakkaart, Leona

2012-12-01

Many interventions initiated within and financed from the health care sector are not necessarily primarily aimed at improving health. This poses important questions regarding the operationalisation of economic evaluations in such contexts. We investigated whether assessing cost-effectiveness using state-of-the-art methods commonly applied in health care evaluations is feasible and meaningful when evaluating interventions aimed at reducing youth delinquency. A probabilistic Markov model was constructed to create a framework for the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions in delinquent youth. For illustrative purposes, Functional Family Therapy (FFT), a systemic intervention aimed at improving family functioning and, primarily, reducing delinquent activity in youths, was compared to Treatment as Usual (TAU). "Criminal activity free years" (CAFYs) were introduced as central outcome measure. Criminal activity may e.g. be based on police contacts or committed crimes. In absence of extensive data and for illustrative purposes the current study based criminal activity on available literature on recidivism. Furthermore, a literature search was performed to deduce the model's structure and parameters. Common cost-effectiveness methodology could be applied to interventions for youth delinquency. Model characteristics and parameters were derived from literature and ongoing trial data. The model resulted in an estimate of incremental costs/CAFY and included long-term effects. Illustrative model results point towards dominance of FFT compared to TAU. Using a probabilistic model and the CAFY outcome measure to assess cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions aimed to reduce delinquency is feasible. However, the model structure is limited to three states and the CAFY measure was defined rather crude. Moreover, as the model parameters are retrieved from literature the model results are illustrative in the absence of empirical data. The current model provides a framework to assess the cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions, while taking into account parameter uncertainty and long-term effectiveness. The framework of the model could be used to assess the cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions alongside (clinical) trial data. Consequently, it is suitable to inform reimbursement decisions, since the value for money of systemic interventions can be demonstrated using a decision analytic model. Future research could be focussed on testing the current model based on extensive empirical data, improving the outcome measure and finding appropriate values for that outcome.

Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict

PubMed Central

Smithson, Michael

2015-01-01

Whether conflict and ambiguity are distinct kinds of uncertainty remains an open question, as does their joint impact on judgments of overall uncertainty. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of human judgment and decision making when both ambiguity and conflict are present, and presents two types of testable models of judgments under conflict and ambiguity. The first type concerns estimate-pooling to arrive at “best” probability estimates. The second type is models of subjective assessments of conflict and ambiguity. These models are developed for dealing with both described and experienced information. A framework for testing these models in the described-information setting is presented, including a reanalysis of a multi-nation data-set to test best-estimate models, and a study of participants' assessments of conflict, ambiguity, and overall uncertainty reported by Smithson (2013). A framework for research in the experienced-information setting is then developed, that differs substantially from extant paradigms in the literature. This framework yields new models of “best” estimates and perceived conflict. The paper concludes with specific suggestions for future research on judgment and decision making under conflict and ambiguity. PMID:26042081

Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict.

PubMed

Smithson, Michael

2015-01-01

Whether conflict and ambiguity are distinct kinds of uncertainty remains an open question, as does their joint impact on judgments of overall uncertainty. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of human judgment and decision making when both ambiguity and conflict are present, and presents two types of testable models of judgments under conflict and ambiguity. The first type concerns estimate-pooling to arrive at "best" probability estimates. The second type is models of subjective assessments of conflict and ambiguity. These models are developed for dealing with both described and experienced information. A framework for testing these models in the described-information setting is presented, including a reanalysis of a multi-nation data-set to test best-estimate models, and a study of participants' assessments of conflict, ambiguity, and overall uncertainty reported by Smithson (2013). A framework for research in the experienced-information setting is then developed, that differs substantially from extant paradigms in the literature. This framework yields new models of "best" estimates and perceived conflict. The paper concludes with specific suggestions for future research on judgment and decision making under conflict and ambiguity.

A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

PubMed Central

Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

2010-01-01

The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management system, e.g. focused on standards for individual pollutants and with separate goals for air toxics and ambient pollutants. However, additional improvements may be possible if goals and actions are defined in terms of risk metrics that are comparable across criteria pollutants and air toxics (hazardous air pollutants), and that encompass both human health and ecological risks. PMID:21209847

Assessing the Basic Traits Associated with Psychopathy: Development and Validation of the Elemental Psychopathy Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lynam, Donald R.; Gaughan, Eric T.; Miller, Joshua D.; Miller, Drew J.; Mullins-Sweatt, Stephanie; Widiger, Thomas A.

2011-01-01

A new self-report assessment of the basic traits of psychopathy was developed with a general trait model of personality (five-factor model [FFM]) as a framework. Scales were written to assess maladaptive variants of the 18 FFM traits that are robustly related to psychopathy across a variety of perspectives including empirical correlations, expert…

Frameworks for Assessing the Quality of Modeling and Simulation Capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rider, W. J.

2012-12-01

The importance of assuring quality in modeling and simulation has spawned several frameworks for structuring the examination of quality. The format and content of these frameworks provides an emphasis, completeness and flow to assessment activities. I will examine four frameworks that have been developed and describe how they can be improved and applied to a broader set of high consequence applications. Perhaps the first of these frameworks was known as CSAU [Boyack] (code scaling, applicability and uncertainty) used for nuclear reactor safety and endorsed the United States' Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). This framework was shaped by nuclear safety practice, and the practical structure needed after the Three Mile Island accident. It incorporated the dominant experimental program, the dominant analysis approach, and concerns about the quality of modeling. The USNRC gave it the force of law that made the nuclear industry take it seriously. After the cessation of nuclear weapons' testing the United States began a program of examining the reliability of these weapons without testing. This program utilizes science including theory, modeling, simulation and experimentation to replace the underground testing. The emphasis on modeling and simulation necessitated attention on the quality of these simulations. Sandia developed the PCMM (predictive capability maturity model) to structure this attention [Oberkampf]. PCMM divides simulation into six core activities to be examined and graded relative to the needs of the modeling activity. NASA [NASA] has built yet another framework in response to the tragedy of the space shuttle accidents. Finally, Ben-Haim and Hemez focus upon modeling robustness and predictive fidelity in another approach. These frameworks are similar, and applied in a similar fashion. The adoption of these frameworks at Sandia and NASA has been slow and arduous because the force of law has not assisted acceptance. All existing frameworks are incomplete and need to be extended incorporating elements from the other as well as new elements related to how models are solved, and how the model will be applied. I will describe this merger of approach and how it should be applied. The problems in adoption are related to basic human nature in that no one likes to be graded, or told they are not sufficiently quality oriented. Rather than engage in an adversarial role, I suggest that the frameworks be viewed as a collaborative tool. Instead these frameworks should be used to structure collaborations that can be used to assist the modeling and simulation efforts to be high quality. The framework provides a comprehensive setting of modeling and simulation themes that should be explored in providing high quality. W. Oberkampf, M. Pilch, and T. Trucano, Predictive Capability Maturity Model for Computational Modeling and Simulation, SAND2007-5948, 2007. B. Boyack, Quantifying Reactor Safety Margins Part 1: An Overview of the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty Evaluation Methodology, Nuc. Eng. Design, 119, pp. 1-15, 1990. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, STANDARD FOR MODELS AND SIMULATIONS, NASA-STD-7009, 2008. Y. Ben-Haim and F. Hemez, Robustness, fidelity and prediction-looseness of models, Proc. R. Soc. A (2012) 468, 227-244.

Proposed evaluation framework for assessing operator performance with multisensor displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foyle, David C.

1992-01-01

Despite aggressive work on the development of sensor fusion algorithms and techniques, no formal evaluation procedures have been proposed. Based on existing integration models in the literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess an operator's ability to use multisensor, or sensor fusion, displays. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The operator's performance with the sensor fusion display can be compared to the models' predictions based on the operator's performance when viewing the original sensor displays prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: 1) poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays (clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference); 2) better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal (compared to the model predictions) level; 3) optimal performance (compared to model predictions); or, 4) super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays. An experiment demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed evaluation framework is discussed.

Multicriteria framework for selecting a process modelling language

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanavachi Moreira Campos, Ana Carolina; Teixeira de Almeida, Adiel

2016-01-01

The choice of process modelling language can affect business process management (BPM) since each modelling language shows different features of a given process and may limit the ways in which a process can be described and analysed. However, choosing the appropriate modelling language for process modelling has become a difficult task because of the availability of a large number modelling languages and also due to the lack of guidelines on evaluating, and comparing languages so as to assist in selecting the most appropriate one. This paper proposes a framework for selecting a modelling language in accordance with the purposes of modelling. This framework is based on the semiotic quality framework (SEQUAL) for evaluating process modelling languages and a multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) approach in order to select the most appropriate language for BPM. This study does not attempt to set out new forms of assessment and evaluation criteria, but does attempt to demonstrate how two existing approaches can be combined so as to solve the problem of selection of modelling language. The framework is described in this paper and then demonstrated by means of an example. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of using SEQUAL and MCDA in an integrated manner are discussed.

A framework for conducting mechanistic based reliability assessments of components operating in complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, Jon Michael

2003-10-01

Reliability prediction of components operating in complex systems has historically been conducted in a statistically isolated manner. Current physics-based, i.e. mechanistic, component reliability approaches focus more on component-specific attributes and mathematical algorithms and not enough on the influence of the system. The result is that significant error can be introduced into the component reliability assessment process. The objective of this study is the development of a framework that infuses the needs and influence of the system into the process of conducting mechanistic-based component reliability assessments. The formulated framework consists of six primary steps. The first three steps, identification, decomposition, and synthesis, are primarily qualitative in nature and employ system reliability and safety engineering principles to construct an appropriate starting point for the component reliability assessment. The following two steps are the most unique. They involve a step to efficiently characterize and quantify the system-driven local parameter space and a subsequent step using this information to guide the reduction of the component parameter space. The local statistical space quantification step is accomplished using two proposed multivariate probability models: Multi-Response First Order Second Moment and Taylor-Based Inverse Transformation. Where existing joint probability models require preliminary distribution and correlation information of the responses, these models combine statistical information of the input parameters with an efficient sampling of the response analyses to produce the multi-response joint probability distribution. Parameter space reduction is accomplished using Approximate Canonical Correlation Analysis (ACCA) employed as a multi-response screening technique. The novelty of this approach is that each individual local parameter and even subsets of parameters representing entire contributing analyses can now be rank ordered with respect to their contribution to not just one response, but the entire vector of component responses simultaneously. The final step of the framework is the actual probabilistic assessment of the component. Although the same multivariate probability tools employed in the characterization step can be used for the component probability assessment, variations of this final step are given to allow for the utilization of existing probabilistic methods such as response surface Monte Carlo and Fast Probability Integration. The overall framework developed in this study is implemented to assess the finite-element based reliability prediction of a gas turbine airfoil involving several failure responses. Results of this implementation are compared to results generated using the conventional 'isolated' approach as well as a validation approach conducted through large sample Monte Carlo simulations. The framework resulted in a considerable improvement to the accuracy of the part reliability assessment and an improved understanding of the component failure behavior. Considerable statistical complexity in the form of joint non-normal behavior was found and accounted for using the framework. Future applications of the framework elements are discussed.

A conceptual and disease model framework for osteoporotic kyphosis.

PubMed

Bayliss, M; Miltenburger, C; White, M; Alvares, L

2013-09-01

This paper presents a multi-method research project to develop a conceptual framework for measuring outcomes in studies of osteoporotic kyphosis. The research involved literature research and qualitative interviews among clinicians who treat patients with kyphosis and among patients with the condition. Kyphosis due to at least one vertebral compression fracture is prevalent among osteoporotic patients, resulting in well-documented symptoms and impact on functioning and well-being. A three-part study led to development of a conceptual measurement framework for comprehensive assessment of symptoms, impact, and treatment benefit for kyphosis. A literature-based disease model (DM) was developed and tested with physicians (n = 10) and patients (n = 10), and FDA guidelines were used to develop a final disease model and a conceptual framework. The DM included signs, symptoms, causes/triggers, exacerbations, and functional status associated with kyphosis. The DM was largely confirmed, but physicians and patients added several concepts related to impact on functioning, and some concepts were not confirmed and removed from the DM. This study confirms the need for more comprehensive assessment of health outcomes in kyphosis, as most current studies omit key concepts.

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Assessing a cross-border logistics policy using a performance measurement system framework: the case of Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, David W. C.; Choy, K. L.; Chow, Harry K. H.; Lin, Canhong

2014-06-01

For the most rapidly growing economic entity in the world, China, a new logistics operation called the indirect cross-border supply chain model has recently emerged. The primary idea of this model is to reduce logistics costs by storing goods at a bonded warehouse with low storage cost in certain Chinese regions, such as the Pearl River Delta (PRD). This research proposes a performance measurement system (PMS) framework to assess the direct and indirect cross-border supply chain models. The PMS covers four categories including cost, time, quality and flexibility in the assessment of the performance of direct and indirect models. Furthermore, a survey was conducted to investigate the logistics performance of third party logistics (3PLs) at the PRD regions, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. The significance of the proposed PMS framework allows 3PLs accurately pinpoint the weakness and strengths of it current operations policy at four major performance measurement categories. Hence, this helps 3PLs further enhance the competitiveness and operations efficiency through better resources allocation at the area of warehousing and transportation.

Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

2004-06-01

The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate andmore » transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.« less

A Model-based Framework for Risk Assessment in Human-Computer Controlled Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatanaka, Iwao

2000-01-01

The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems. This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions. Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

Design of a component-based integrated environmental modeling framework

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) includes interdependent science-based components (e.g., models, databases, viewers, assessment protocols) that comprise an appropriate software modeling system. The science-based components are responsible for consuming and producing inform...

A tiered, integrated biological and chemical monitoring framework for contaminants of emerging concern in aquatic ecosystems.

PubMed

Maruya, Keith A; Dodder, Nathan G; Mehinto, Alvine C; Denslow, Nancy D; Schlenk, Daniel; Snyder, Shane A; Weisberg, Stephen B

2016-07-01

The chemical-specific risk-based paradigm that informs monitoring and assessment of environmental contaminants does not apply well to the many thousands of new chemicals that are being introduced into ambient receiving waters. We propose a tiered framework that incorporates bioanalytical screening tools and diagnostic nontargeted chemical analysis to more effectively monitor for contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). The framework is based on a comprehensive battery of in vitro bioassays to first screen for a broad spectrum of CECs and nontargeted analytical methods to identify bioactive contaminants missed by the currently favored targeted analyses. Water quality managers in California have embraced this strategy with plans to further develop and test this framework in regional and statewide pilot studies on waterbodies that receive discharge from municipal wastewater treatment plants and stormwater runoff. In addition to directly informing decisions, the data obtained using this framework can be used to construct and validate models that better predict CEC occurrence and toxicity. The adaptive interplay among screening results, diagnostic assessment and predictive modeling will allow managers to make decisions based on the most current and relevant information, instead of extrapolating from parameters with questionable linkage to CEC impacts. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:540-547. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

An Evaluation Model for a Multidisciplinary Chronic Pelvic Pain Clinic: Application of the RE-AIM Framework.

PubMed

Chen, Innie; Money, Deborah; Yong, Paul; Williams, Christina; Allaire, Catherine

2015-09-01

Chronic pelvic pain (CPP) is a prevalent, debilitating, and costly condition. Although national guidelines and empiric evidence support the use of a multidisciplinary model of care for such patients, such clinics are uncommon in Canada. The BC Women's Centre for Pelvic Pain and Endometriosis was created to respond to this need, and there is interest in this model of care's impact on the burden of disease in British Columbia. We sought to create an approach to its evaluation using the RE-AIM (Reach, Efficacy, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance) evaluation framework to assess the impact of the care model and to guide clinical decision-making and policy. The RE-AIM evaluation framework was applied to consider the different dimensions of impact of the BC Centre. The proposed measures, data sources, and data management strategies for this mixed-methods approach were identified. The five dimensions of impact were considered at individual and organizational levels, and corresponding indicators were proposed to enable integration into existing data infrastructure to facilitate collection and early program evaluation. The RE-AIM framework can be applied to the evaluation of a multidisciplinary chronic pelvic pain clinic. This will allow better assessment of the impact of innovative models of care for women with chronic pelvic pain.

Testing the suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic properties across regional scales

DOE PAGES

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Halford, Keith J.; Sweetkind, Donald; ...

2016-02-18

The suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic conductivity (K) to length scales commensurate with hydraulic data is difficult to assess. A novel method is presented for evaluating assumed relations between K and geologic interpretations for regional-scale groundwater modeling. The approach relies on simultaneous interpretation of multiple aquifer tests using alternative geologic frameworks of variable complexity, where each framework is incorporated as prior information that assumes homogeneous K within each model unit. This approach is tested at Pahute Mesa within the Nevada National Security Site (USA), where observed drawdowns from eight aquifer tests in complex, highly faulted volcanic rocks providemore » the necessary hydraulic constraints. The investigated volume encompasses 40 mi3 (167 km3) where drawdowns traversed major fault structures and were detected more than 2 mi (3.2 km) from pumping wells. Complexity of the five frameworks assessed ranges from an undifferentiated mass of rock with a single unit to 14 distinct geologic units. Results show that only four geologic units can be justified as hydraulically unique for this location. The approach qualitatively evaluates the consistency of hydraulic property estimates within extents of investigation and effects of geologic frameworks on extrapolation. Distributions of transmissivity are similar within the investigated extents irrespective of the geologic framework. In contrast, the extrapolation of hydraulic properties beyond the volume investigated with interfering aquifer tests is strongly affected by the complexity of a given framework. As a result, testing at Pahute Mesa illustrates how this method can be employed to determine the appropriate level of geologic complexity for large-scale groundwater modeling.« less

Testing the suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic properties across regional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Halford, Keith J.; Sweetkind, Donald; Fenelon, Joseph M.

2016-01-01

The suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic conductivity (K) to length scales commensurate with hydraulic data is difficult to assess. A novel method is presented for evaluating assumed relations between K and geologic interpretations for regional-scale groundwater modeling. The approach relies on simultaneous interpretation of multiple aquifer tests using alternative geologic frameworks of variable complexity, where each framework is incorporated as prior information that assumes homogeneous K within each model unit. This approach is tested at Pahute Mesa within the Nevada National Security Site (USA), where observed drawdowns from eight aquifer tests in complex, highly faulted volcanic rocks provide the necessary hydraulic constraints. The investigated volume encompasses 40 mi3 (167 km3) where drawdowns traversed major fault structures and were detected more than 2 mi (3.2 km) from pumping wells. Complexity of the five frameworks assessed ranges from an undifferentiated mass of rock with a single unit to 14 distinct geologic units. Results show that only four geologic units can be justified as hydraulically unique for this location. The approach qualitatively evaluates the consistency of hydraulic property estimates within extents of investigation and effects of geologic frameworks on extrapolation. Distributions of transmissivity are similar within the investigated extents irrespective of the geologic framework. In contrast, the extrapolation of hydraulic properties beyond the volume investigated with interfering aquifer tests is strongly affected by the complexity of a given framework. Testing at Pahute Mesa illustrates how this method can be employed to determine the appropriate level of geologic complexity for large-scale groundwater modeling.

Testing the suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic properties across regional scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Halford, Keith J.; Sweetkind, Donald

The suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic conductivity (K) to length scales commensurate with hydraulic data is difficult to assess. A novel method is presented for evaluating assumed relations between K and geologic interpretations for regional-scale groundwater modeling. The approach relies on simultaneous interpretation of multiple aquifer tests using alternative geologic frameworks of variable complexity, where each framework is incorporated as prior information that assumes homogeneous K within each model unit. This approach is tested at Pahute Mesa within the Nevada National Security Site (USA), where observed drawdowns from eight aquifer tests in complex, highly faulted volcanic rocks providemore » the necessary hydraulic constraints. The investigated volume encompasses 40 mi3 (167 km3) where drawdowns traversed major fault structures and were detected more than 2 mi (3.2 km) from pumping wells. Complexity of the five frameworks assessed ranges from an undifferentiated mass of rock with a single unit to 14 distinct geologic units. Results show that only four geologic units can be justified as hydraulically unique for this location. The approach qualitatively evaluates the consistency of hydraulic property estimates within extents of investigation and effects of geologic frameworks on extrapolation. Distributions of transmissivity are similar within the investigated extents irrespective of the geologic framework. In contrast, the extrapolation of hydraulic properties beyond the volume investigated with interfering aquifer tests is strongly affected by the complexity of a given framework. As a result, testing at Pahute Mesa illustrates how this method can be employed to determine the appropriate level of geologic complexity for large-scale groundwater modeling.« less

EarthCube - Earth System Bridge: Spanning Scientific Communities with Interoperable Modeling Frameworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peckham, S. D.; DeLuca, C.; Gochis, D. J.; Arrigo, J.; Kelbert, A.; Choi, E.; Dunlap, R.

2014-12-01

In order to better understand and predict environmental hazards of weather/climate, ecology and deep earth processes, geoscientists develop and use physics-based computational models. These models are used widely both in academic and federal communities. Because of the large effort required to develop and test models, there is widespread interest in component-based modeling, which promotes model reuse and simplified coupling to tackle problems that often cross discipline boundaries. In component-based modeling, the goal is to make relatively small changes to models that make it easy to reuse them as "plug-and-play" components. Sophisticated modeling frameworks exist to rapidly couple these components to create new composite models. They allow component models to exchange variables while accommodating different programming languages, computational grids, time-stepping schemes, variable names and units. Modeling frameworks have arisen in many modeling communities. CSDMS (Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System) serves the academic earth surface process dynamics community, while ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) serves many federal Earth system modeling projects. Others exist in both the academic and federal domains and each satisfies design criteria that are determined by the community they serve. While they may use different interface standards or semantic mediation strategies, they share fundamental similarities. The purpose of the Earth System Bridge project is to develop mechanisms for interoperability between modeling frameworks, such as the ability to share a model or service component. This project has three main goals: (1) Develop a Framework Description Language (ES-FDL) that allows modeling frameworks to be described in a standard way so that their differences and similarities can be assessed. (2) Demonstrate that if a model is augmented with a framework-agnostic Basic Model Interface (BMI), then simple, universal adapters can go from BMI to a modeling framework's native component interface. (3) Create semantic mappings between modeling frameworks that support semantic mediation. This third goal involves creating a crosswalk between the CF Standard Names and the CSDMS Standard Names (a set of naming conventions). This talk will summarize progress towards these goals.

The aggregate timberland assessment system—ATLAS: a comprehensive timber projection model.

Treesearch

J.R. Mills; J.C. Kincaid

1992-01-01

The aggregate timberland assessment system is a time-based deterministic timber projection model. It was developed by the USDA Forest Service to address broad policy questions related to future timber supplies for the 1989 Renewable Resources Planning Act timber assessment. An open framework design allows for customizing inputs to account for regional and subregional...

Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Liu, Yongzhi; Li, Fen; Ding, Dewen

2016-07-01

Marine ecosystem dynamic models (MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization (PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An efficient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the efficiency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fit of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confidence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientific and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

2010-12-01

Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available management options to meet demands for food and energy over the next century. The coupled models provide a new platform for evaluating future changes in agricultural management based on food demand, bioenergy demand, and changes in crop yield and soil C under a changing climate. This framework can be applied to evaluate the economically and biophysically optimal distribution of management under future climates.

A Causal Inference Analysis of the Effect of Wildland Fire ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Wildfire smoke is a major contributor to ambient air pollution levels. In this talk, we develop a spatio-temporal model to estimate the contribution of fire smoke to overall air pollution in different regions of the country. We combine numerical model output with observational data within a causal inference framework. Our methods account for aggregation and potential bias of the numerical model simulation, and address uncertainty in the causal estimates. We apply the proposed method to estimation of ozone and fine particulate matter from wildland fires and the impact on health burden assessment. We develop a causal inference framework to assess contributions of fire to ambient PM in the presence of spatial interference.

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on forest ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

Creating a process for incorporating epidemiological modelling into outbreak management decisions.

PubMed

Akselrod, Hana; Mercon, Monica; Kirkeby Risoe, Petter; Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; McGovern, Joanne; Bogucki, Sandy

2012-01-01

Modern computational models of infectious diseases greatly enhance our ability to understand new infectious threats and assess the effects of different interventions. The recently-released CDC Framework for Preventing Infectious Diseases calls for increased use of predictive modelling of epidemic emergence for public health preparedness. Currently, the utility of these technologies in preparedness and response to outbreaks is limited by gaps between modelling output and information requirements for incident management. The authors propose an operational structure that will facilitate integration of modelling capabilities into action planning for outbreak management, using the Incident Command System (ICS) and Synchronization Matrix framework. It is designed to be adaptable and scalable for use by state and local planners under the National Response Framework (NRF) and Emergency Support Function #8 (ESF-8). Specific epidemiological modelling requirements are described, and integrated with the core processes for public health emergency decision support. These methods can be used in checklist format to align prospective or real-time modelling output with anticipated decision points, and guide strategic situational assessments at the community level. It is anticipated that formalising these processes will facilitate translation of the CDC's policy guidance from theory to practice during public health emergencies involving infectious outbreaks.

Like Hercules and the Hydra: Trade-offs and strategies in ecological model-building and experimental design.

PubMed

Inkpen, S Andrew

2016-06-01

Experimental ecologists often invoke trade-offs to describe the constraints they encounter when choosing between alternative experimental designs, such as between laboratory, field, and natural experiments. In making these claims, they tend to rely on Richard Levins' analysis of trade-offs in theoretical model-building. But does Levins' framework apply to experiments? In this paper, I focus this question on one desideratum widely invoked in the modelling literature: generality. Using the case of generality, I assess whether Levins-style treatments of modelling provide workable resources for assessing trade-offs in experimental design. I argue that, of four strategies modellers employ to increase generality, only one may be unproblematically applied to experimental design. Furthermore, modelling desiderata do not have obvious correlates in experimental design, and when we define these desiderata in a way that seem consistent with ecologists' usage, the trade-off framework falls apart. I conclude that a Levins-inspired framework for modelling does not provide the content for a similar approach to experimental practice; this does not, however, mean that it cannot provide the form. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comprehensive risk assessment framework for offsite transportation of inflammable hazardous waste.

PubMed

Das, Arup; Gupta, A K; Mazumder, T N

2012-08-15

A framework for risk assessment due to offsite transportation of hazardous wastes is designed based on the type of event that can be triggered from an accident of a hazardous waste carrier. The objective of this study is to design a framework for computing the risk to population associated with offsite transportation of inflammable and volatile wastes. The framework is based on traditional definition of risk and is designed for conditions where accident databases are not available. The probability based variable in risk assessment framework is substituted by a composite accident index proposed in this study. The framework computes the impacts due to a volatile cloud explosion based on TNO Multi-energy model. The methodology also estimates the vulnerable population in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY) which takes into consideration the demographic profile of the population and the degree of injury on mortality and morbidity sustained. The methodology is illustrated using a case study of a pharmaceutical industry in the Kolkata metropolitan area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying Experiential Learning in College Teaching and Assessment: A Process Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Lewis, Ed.; And Others

This manual presents a process model in which university teaching and assessment processes are embedded within a broader view of the human learning experience and the outcomes that are required for professional student growth. The model conceptualizes the university's role in the lives of life-long learners and provides a framework for rethinking…

Development and assessment of a physics-based simulation model to investigate residential PM2.5 infiltration across the US housing stock

EPA Science Inventory

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Population Impact Assessment Modeling Framework (PIAMF) was expanded to enable determination of indoor PM2.5 concentrations and exposures in a set of 50,000 homes representing the US housing stock. A mass-balance model is used to calculat...

Advancing the Assessment of Personality Pathology With the Cognitive-Affective Processing System.

PubMed

Huprich, Steven K; Nelson, Sharon M

2015-01-01

The Cognitive-Affective Processing System (CAPS) is a dynamic and expansive model of personality proposed by Mischel and Shoda (1995) that incorporates dispositional and processing frameworks by considering the interaction of the individual and the situation, and the patterns of variation that result. These patterns of cognition, affect, and behavior are generally defined through the use of if … then statements, and provide a rich understanding of the individual across varying levels of assessment. In this article, we describe the CAPS model and articulate ways in which it can be applied to conceptualizing and assessing personality pathology. We suggest that the CAPS model is an ideal framework that integrates a number of current theories of personality pathology, and simultaneously overcomes a number of limits that have been empirically identified in the past.

Planning and design of studies for river-quality assessment in the Truckee and Carson River basins, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowlin, Jon O.; Brown, W.M.; Smith, L.H.; Hoffman, R.J.

1980-01-01

The objectives of the Geological Survey 's river-quality assessment in the Truckee and Carson River basins in California and Nevada are to identify the significant resource management problems; to develop techniques to assess the problems; and to effectively communicate results to responsible managers. Six major elements of the assessment to be completed by October 1981 are (1) a detailing of the legal, institutional, and structural development of water resources in the basins and the current problems and conflicts; (2) a compilation and synthesis of the physical hydrology of the basins; (3) development of a special workshop approach to involve local management in the direction and results of the study; (4) development of a comprehensive streamflow model emcompassing both basins to provide a quantitative hydrologic framework for water-quality analysis; (5) development of a water-quality transport model for selected constituents and characteristics on selected reaches of the Truckee River; and (6) a detailed examination of selected fish habitats for specified reaches of the Truckee River. Progress will be periodically reported in reports, maps, computer data files, mathematical models, a bibliography, and public presentations. In building a basic framework to develop techniques, the basins were viewed as a single hydrologic unit because of interconnecting diversion structures. The framework comprises 13 hydrographic subunits to facilitate modeling and sampling. Several significant issues beyond the scope of the assessment were considered as supplementary proposals; water-quality loadings in Truckee and Carson Rivers, urban runoff in Reno and management alternatives, and a model of limnological processes in Lahontan Reservoir. (USGS)

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarro, Sergio B.

2010-01-01

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

A planning-oriented sustainability assessment framework for peri-urban water management in developing countries.

PubMed

Starkl, Markus; Brunner, Norbert; López, Eduardo; Martínez-Ruiz, José Luis

2013-12-15

DPSIR and the three-pillar model are well-established frameworks for sustainability assessment. This paper proposes a planning-oriented sustainability assessment framework (POSAF). It is informed by those frameworks but differs insofar as it puts more emphasis on a constructivist conception which recognises that sustainability needs to be defined anew for each planning problem. In finding such a consensus definition, POSAF uses participatory scenario analysis and participatory planning, technical feasibility study, participatory assessment, analysis of trade-offs and social networks in an unusual combination and for goals that differ from the original conceptions of these methods. POSAF was applied in a peri-urban area of Mexico City for the design of improved water service provision, integrating solid waste management. It supported consensus amongst users about the importance of environmental issues, informed planners about the values of stakeholders and users, detected local differences, and identified possible conflicts at an early stage of decision-making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

2015-01-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

2015-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

Invited seminar, University of North Texas: An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

Invited OSU class lecture: An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on forest ecosystem services - ESRP mtg

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services - 4/27/10

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

Assessment and Decision-Making in Early Childhood Education and Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strand, Paul S.; Cerna, Sandra; Skucy, Jim

2007-01-01

Assessment within the fields of early childhood education and early childhood intervention is guided by the "deductive-psychometric model", which is a framework for legitimizing constructs that arise from theories. An alternative approach, termed the "inductive-experimental model", places significantly more restrictions on what constitutes a…

A new framework for modeling decentralized low impact developments using Soil and Water Assessment Tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing the performance of Low Impact Development (LID) practices at a catchment scale is important in managing urban watersheds. Few modeling tools exist that are capable of explicitly representing the hydrological mechanisms of LIDs while considering the diverse land uses of urban watersheds. ...

Technical skills assessment toolbox: a review using the unitary framework of validity.

PubMed

Ghaderi, Iman; Manji, Farouq; Park, Yoon Soo; Juul, Dorthea; Ott, Michael; Harris, Ilene; Farrell, Timothy M

2015-02-01

The purpose of this study was to create a technical skills assessment toolbox for 35 basic and advanced skills/procedures that comprise the American College of Surgeons (ACS)/Association of Program Directors in Surgery (APDS) surgical skills curriculum and to provide a critical appraisal of the included tools, using contemporary framework of validity. Competency-based training has become the predominant model in surgical education and assessment of performance is an essential component. Assessment methods must produce valid results to accurately determine the level of competency. A search was performed, using PubMed and Google Scholar, to identify tools that have been developed for assessment of the targeted technical skills. A total of 23 assessment tools for the 35 ACS/APDS skills modules were identified. Some tools, such as Operative Performance Rating System (OSATS) and Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill (OPRS), have been tested for more than 1 procedure. Therefore, 30 modules had at least 1 assessment tool, with some common surgical procedures being addressed by several tools. Five modules had none. Only 3 studies used Messick's framework to design their validity studies. The remaining studies used an outdated framework on the basis of "types of validity." When analyzed using the contemporary framework, few of these studies demonstrated validity for content, internal structure, and relationship to other variables. This study provides an assessment toolbox for common surgical skills/procedures. Our review shows that few authors have used the contemporary unitary concept of validity for development of their assessment tools. As we progress toward competency-based training, future studies should provide evidence for various sources of validity using the contemporary framework.

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, M.A.; Cropper, W.; Harwell, C. C.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Davis, S.; Ogden, J.C.; Lirman, D.

2001-01-01

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability.

PubMed

Gentile, J H; Harwell, M A; Cropper, W; Harwell, C C; DeAngelis, D; Davis, S; Ogden, J C; Lirman, D

2001-07-02

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability, and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Demonstration of reduced-order urban scale building energy models

DOE PAGES

Heidarinejad, Mohammad; Mattise, Nicholas; Dahlhausen, Matthew; ...

2017-09-08

The aim of this study is to demonstrate a developed framework to rapidly create urban scale reduced-order building energy models using a systematic summary of the simplifications required for the representation of building exterior and thermal zones. These urban scale reduced-order models rely on the contribution of influential variables to the internal, external, and system thermal loads. OpenStudio Application Programming Interface (API) serves as a tool to automate the process of model creation and demonstrate the developed framework. The results of this study show that the accuracy of the developed reduced-order building energy models varies only up to 10% withmore » the selection of different thermal zones. In addition, to assess complexity of the developed reduced-order building energy models, this study develops a novel framework to quantify complexity of the building energy models. Consequently, this study empowers the building energy modelers to quantify their building energy model systematically in order to report the model complexity alongside the building energy model accuracy. An exhaustive analysis on four university campuses suggests that the urban neighborhood buildings lend themselves to simplified typical shapes. Specifically, building energy modelers can utilize the developed typical shapes to represent more than 80% of the U.S. buildings documented in the CBECS database. One main benefits of this developed framework is the opportunity for different models including airflow and solar radiation models to share the same exterior representation, allowing a unifying exchange data. Altogether, the results of this study have implications for a large-scale modeling of buildings in support of urban energy consumption analyses or assessment of a large number of alternative solutions in support of retrofit decision-making in the building industry.« less

Demonstration of reduced-order urban scale building energy models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heidarinejad, Mohammad; Mattise, Nicholas; Dahlhausen, Matthew

The aim of this study is to demonstrate a developed framework to rapidly create urban scale reduced-order building energy models using a systematic summary of the simplifications required for the representation of building exterior and thermal zones. These urban scale reduced-order models rely on the contribution of influential variables to the internal, external, and system thermal loads. OpenStudio Application Programming Interface (API) serves as a tool to automate the process of model creation and demonstrate the developed framework. The results of this study show that the accuracy of the developed reduced-order building energy models varies only up to 10% withmore » the selection of different thermal zones. In addition, to assess complexity of the developed reduced-order building energy models, this study develops a novel framework to quantify complexity of the building energy models. Consequently, this study empowers the building energy modelers to quantify their building energy model systematically in order to report the model complexity alongside the building energy model accuracy. An exhaustive analysis on four university campuses suggests that the urban neighborhood buildings lend themselves to simplified typical shapes. Specifically, building energy modelers can utilize the developed typical shapes to represent more than 80% of the U.S. buildings documented in the CBECS database. One main benefits of this developed framework is the opportunity for different models including airflow and solar radiation models to share the same exterior representation, allowing a unifying exchange data. Altogether, the results of this study have implications for a large-scale modeling of buildings in support of urban energy consumption analyses or assessment of a large number of alternative solutions in support of retrofit decision-making in the building industry.« less

Organizational Change in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-17

requirements. Models of organizational change, like the Burke- Litwin model, facilitate an assessment of CBP’s transformation because they identify factors...valuable insight. The Burke- Litwin model offers a framework for prioritizing the organizational factors of change. Others outline the importance of an...implementation plan first and then assesses CBP’s efforts against the Burke- Litwin model which stresses transformational factors: strategy, leadership, and

A holistic model for the selection of environmental assessment indicators to assess the impact of industrialization on indigenous health.

PubMed

Kryzanowski, Julie A; McIntyre, Lynn

2011-01-01

Mainstream environmental assessment (EA) methodologies often inadequately address health, social and cultural impacts of concern for Canadian indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Our objective is to present a holistic, culturally-appropriate framework for the selection of indigenous health indicators for baseline health assessment, impact prediction, or monitoring of impacts over time. We used a critical population health approach to explore the determinants of health and health inequities in indigenous communities and conceptualize the pathways by which industrialization affects these determinants. We integrated and extended key elements from three indigenous health frameworks into a new holistic model for the selection of indigenous EA indicators. The holistic model conceptualizes individual and community determinants of health within external social, economic and political contexts and thus provides a comprehensive framework for selecting indicators of indigenous health. Indigenous health is the product of interactions among multiple determinants of health and contexts. Potential applications are discussed using case study examples involving indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Industrialization can worsen indigenous health inequities by perpetuating the health, social and cultural impacts of historic environmental dispossession. To mitigate impacts, EA should explicitly recognize linkages between environmental dispossession and the determinants of health and health inequities and meaningfully involve indigenous communities in the process.

Surgical wound dehiscence: a conceptual framework for patient assessment.

PubMed

Sandy-Hodgetts, Kylie; Carville, Keryln; Leslie, Gavin D

2018-03-02

This paper presents a conceptual framework which outlines the risk factors associated with surgical wound dehiscence (SWD) as identified in the literature. The purpose for the development of the conceptual framework was to derive an evidence-based, informed understanding of factors associated with SWD, in order to inform a programme of research on the aetiology and potential risk factors of SWD. Incorporated within the patient-centric conceptual framework are patient related comorbidities, intraoperative and postoperative risk factors related to SWD. These are categorised as either 'mechanical' or 'physiological mechanisms' posited to influence these relationships. The use of the conceptual model for assessment of patients has particular clinical relevance for identification of risk and the management of patients in the pre-, intra- and postoperative period.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources - Translating a theoretical concept to an operational framework using systems thinking approach in a changing climate: Case study in Ogallala Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandhi, Aavudai; Kannan, Narayanan

2018-02-01

Water is an essential natural resource. Among many stressors, altered climate is exerting pressure on water resource systems, increasing its demand and creating a need for vulnerability assessments. The overall objective of this study was to develop a novel tool that can translate a theoretical concept (vulnerability of water resources (VWR)) to an operational framework mainly under altered temperature and precipitation, as well as for population change (smaller extent). The developed tool had three stages and utilized a novel systems thinking approach. Stage-1: Translating theoretical concept to characteristics identified from studies; Stage-2: Operationalizing characteristics to methodology in VWR; Stage-3: Utilizing the methodology for development of a conceptual modeling tool for VWR: WR-VISTA (Water Resource Vulnerability assessment conceptual model using Indicators selected by System's Thinking Approach). The specific novelties were: 1) The important characteristics in VWR were identified in Stage-1 (target system, system components, scale, level of detail, data source, frameworks, and indicator); 2) WR-VISTA combined two vulnerability assessments frameworks: the European's Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework (DPSIR) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's framework (IPCC's); and 3) used systems thinking approaches in VWR for indicator selection. The developed application was demonstrated in Kansas (overlying the High Plains region/Ogallala Aquifer, considered the "breadbasket of the world"), using 26 indicators with intermediate level of detail. Our results indicate that the western part of the state is vulnerable from agricultural water use and the eastern part from urban water use. The developed tool can be easily replicated to other regions within and outside the US.

[Exploring models for the assessment of the economic, social, political, and scientific impact of health research].

PubMed

Macías-Angel, Beatriz; Agudelo-Calderón, Carlos A

2015-05-01

Health research produces effects on the health of populations. This document approaches the frameworks and the models used by developed countries to assess the impact of health research through documentary analysis of research with the highest impact. With this, it was possible to identify two guiding axes of analysis: one having to do with focus, and the other having to do with emphasis. With these, the published models, their uses, their reach, and their origins are related. Our study brings awareness to the features they have and the areas in which Colombia could implement them. We found that the framework for evaluating health research known as the "payback model" is a model for monitoring research that tracks the process and research results with multidimensional categorization of the impacts of research.

Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments.

PubMed

Franco, Antonio; Price, Oliver R; Marshall, Stuart; Jolliet, Olivier; Van den Brink, Paul J; Rico, Andreu; Focks, Andreas; De Laender, Frederik; Ashauer, Roman

2017-03-01

Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment remains limited, particularly among general chemicals such as down-the-drain ingredients. While reviewing the current state of the art in environmental exposure and ecological effect modeling, we propose a scenario-based framework that enables a better integration of exposure and effect assessments in a tiered approach. Global- to catchment-scale spatially explicit exposure models can be used to identify areas of higher exposure and to generate ecologically relevant exposure information for input into effect models. Numerous examples of mechanistic ecological effect models demonstrate that it is technically feasible to extrapolate from individual-level effects to effects at higher levels of biological organization and from laboratory to environmental conditions. However, the data required to parameterize effect models that can embrace the complexity of ecosystems are large and require a targeted approach. Experimental efforts should, therefore, focus on vulnerable species and/or traits and ecological conditions of relevance. We outline key research needs to address the challenges that currently hinder the practical application of advanced model-based approaches to risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:233-248. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

A watershed-based spatially-explicit demonstration of an integrated environmental modeling framework for ecosystem services in the Coal River Basin (WV, USA)

Treesearch

John M. Johnston; Mahion C. Barber; Kurt Wolfe; Mike Galvin; Mike Cyterski; Rajbir Parmar; Luis Suarez

2016-01-01

We demonstrate a spatially-explicit regional assessment of current condition of aquatic ecoservices in the Coal River Basin (CRB), with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The integrated modeling framework (IMF) forecasts water quality and quantity, habitat suitability for aquatic biota, fish biomasses, population densities, ...

Theoretically informed correlates of hepatitis B knowledge among four Asian groups: the health behavior framework.

PubMed

Maxwell, Annette E; Stewart, Susan L; Glenn, Beth A; Wong, Weng Kee; Yasui, Yutaka; Chang, L Cindy; Taylor, Victoria M; Nguyen, Tung T; Chen, Moon S; Bastani, Roshan

2012-01-01

Few studies have examined theoretically informed constructs related to hepatitis B (HBV) testing, and comparisons across studies are challenging due to lack of uniformity in constructs assessed. The present analysis examined relationships among Health Behavior Framework factors across four Asian American groups to advance the development of theory-based interventions for HBV testing in at-risk populations. Data were collected from 2007-2010 as part of baseline surveys during four intervention trials promoting HBV testing among Vietnamese-, Hmong-, Korean- and Cambodian-Americans (n = 1,735). Health Behavior Framework constructs assessed included: awareness of HBV, knowledge of transmission routes, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, doctor recommendation, stigma of HBV infection, and perceived efficacy of testing. Within each group we assessed associations between our intermediate outcome of knowledge of HBV transmission and other constructs, to assess the concurrent validity of our model and instruments. While the absolute levels for Health Behavior Framework factors varied across groups, relationships between knowledge and other factors were generally consistent. This suggests similarities rather than differences with respect to posited drivers of HBV-related behavior. Our findings indicate that Health Behavior Framework constructs are applicable to diverse ethnic groups and provide preliminary evidence for the construct validity of the Health Behavior Framework.

Theoretically Informed Correlates of Hepatitis B Knowledge among Four Asian Groups: The Health Behavior Framework

PubMed Central

Maxwell, AE; Stewart, SL; Glenn, BA; Wong, WK; Yasui, Y; Chang, LC; Taylor, VM; Nguyen, TT; Chen, MS; Bastani, R

2012-01-01

Background Few studies have examined theoretically informed constructs related to hepatitis B (HBV) testing, and comparisons across studies is challenging due to lack of uniformity in constructs assessed. This analysis examines relationships among Health Behavior Framework factors across four Asian American groups to advance the development of theory-based interventions for HBV testing in at-risk populations. Methods Data were collected from 2007–2010 as part of baseline surveys during four intervention trials promoting HBV testing among Vietnamese-, Hmong-, Korean- and Cambodian-Americans (n = 1,735). Health Behavior Framework constructs assessed included: awareness of HBV, knowledge of transmission routes, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, doctor recommendation, stigma of HBV infection, and perceived efficacy of testing. Within each group we assessed associations between our intermediate outcome of knowledge of HBV transmission and other constructs, to assess the concurrent validity of our model and instruments. Results While the absolute levels for Health Behavior Framework factors varied across groups, relationships between knowledge and other factors were generally consistent. This suggests similarities rather than differences with respect to posited drivers of HBV-related behavior. Discussion Our findings indicate that Health Behavior Framework constructs are applicable to diverse ethnic groups and provide preliminary evidence for the construct validity of the Health Behavior Framework. PMID:22799389

Multimodeling Framework for Predicting Water Quality in Fragmented Agriculture-Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, J. B.; Guber, A.; Porter, W. F.; Williams, D.; Tamrakar, S.; Dechen Quinn, A.

2012-12-01

Both livestock and wildlife are major contributors of nonpoint pollution of surface water bodies. The interactions among them can substantially increase the chance of contamination especially in fragmented agriculture-forest landscapes, where wildlife (e.g. white tailed deer) can transmit diseases between remote farms. Unfortunately, models currently available for predicting fate and transport of microorganisms in these ecosystems do not account for such interactions. The objectives of this study are to develop and test a multimodeling framework that assesses the risk of microbial contamination of surface water caused by wildlife-livestock interactions in fragmented agriculture-forest ecosystems. The framework consists of a modified Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), KINematic Runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2) with the add-on module STWIR (Microorganism Transport with Infiltration and Runoff), RAMAS GIS, SIR compartmental model and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment model (QMRA). The watershed-scale model SWAT simulates plant biomass growth, wash-off of microorganisms from foliage and soil, overland and in-stream microbial transport, microbial growth, and die-off in foliage and soil. RAMAS GIS model predicts the most probable habitat and subsequent population of white-tailed deer based on land use and crop biomass. KINEROS-STWIR simulates overland transport of microorganisms released from soil, surface applied manure, and fecal deposits during runoff events at high temporal and special resolutions. KINEROS-STWIR and RAMAS GIS provide input for an SIR compartmental model which simulates disease transmission within and between deer groups. This information is used in SWAT model to account for transmission and deposition of pathogens by white tailed deer in stream water, foliage and soil. The QMRA approach extends to microorganisms inactivated in forage and water consumed by deer. Probabilities of deer infections and numbers of infected animals are computed based on a dose-response approach, including Beta Poisson and Maximum Risk models, which take into account pathogen variation in infectivity. An example of the Multimodeling framework performance for a fragmented agriculture-forest ecosystem will be shown in the presentation.

Assessing Online Textual Feedback to Support Student Intrinsic Motivation Using a Collaborative Text-Based Dialogue System: A Qualitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shroff, Ronnie H.; Deneen, Christopher

2011-01-01

This paper assesses textual feedback to support student intrinsic motivation using a collaborative text-based dialogue system. A research model is presented based on research into intrinsic motivation, and the specific construct of feedback provides a framework for the model. A qualitative research methodology is used to validate the model.…

Novel flood risk assessment framework for rapid decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valyrakis, Manousos; Koursari, Eftychia; Solley, Mark

2016-04-01

The impacts of catastrophic flooding, have significantly increased over the last few decades. This is due to primarily the increased urbanisation in ever-expanding mega-cities as well as due to the intensification both in magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Herein a novel conceptual framework is presented that incorporates the use of real-time information to inform and update low dimensionality hydraulic models, to allow for rapid decision making towards preventing loss of life and safeguarding critical infrastructure. In particular, a case study from the recent UK floods in the area of Whitesands (Dumfries), is presented to demonstrate the utility of this approach. It is demonstrated that effectively combining a wealth of readily available qualitative information (such as crowdsourced visual documentation or using live data from sensing techniques), with existing quantitative data, can help appropriately update hydraulic models and reduce modelling uncertainties in future flood risk assessments. This approach is even more useful in cases where hydraulic models are limited, do not exist or were not needed before unpredicted dynamic modifications to the river system took place (for example in the case of reduced or eliminated hydraulic capacity due to blockages). The low computational cost and rapid assessment this framework offers, render it promising for innovating in flood management.

Using lab notebooks to examine students' engagement in modeling in an upper-division electronics lab course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, Jacob T.; Su, Weifeng; Lewandowski, H. J.

2017-12-01

We demonstrate how students' use of modeling can be examined and assessed using student notebooks collected from an upper-division electronics lab course. The use of models is a ubiquitous practice in undergraduate physics education, but the process of constructing, testing, and refining these models is much less common. We focus our attention on a lab course that has been transformed to engage students in this modeling process during lab activities. The design of the lab activities was guided by a framework that captures the different components of model-based reasoning, called the Modeling Framework for Experimental Physics. We demonstrate how this framework can be used to assess students' written work and to identify how students' model-based reasoning differed from activity to activity. Broadly speaking, we were able to identify the different steps of students' model-based reasoning and assess the completeness of their reasoning. Varying degrees of scaffolding present across the activities had an impact on how thoroughly students would engage in the full modeling process, with more scaffolded activities resulting in more thorough engagement with the process. Finally, we identified that the step in the process with which students had the most difficulty was the comparison between their interpreted data and their model prediction. Students did not use sufficiently sophisticated criteria in evaluating such comparisons, which had the effect of halting the modeling process. This may indicate that in order to engage students further in using model-based reasoning during lab activities, the instructor needs to provide further scaffolding for how students make these types of experimental comparisons. This is an important design consideration for other such courses attempting to incorporate modeling as a learning goal.

RESEARCH: Conceptualizing Environmental Stress: A Stress-Response Model of Coastal Sandy Barriers.

PubMed

Gabriel; Kreutzwiser

2000-01-01

/ The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a conceptual framework of environmental stress-response for a geomorphic system. Constructs and methods generated from the literature were applied in the development of an integrative stress-response framework using existing environmental assessment techniques: interaction matrices and a systems diagram. Emphasis is on the interaction between environmental stress and the geomorphic environment of a sandy barrier system. The model illustrates a number of stress concepts pertinent to modeling environmental stress-response, including those related to stress-dependency, frequency-recovery relationships, environmental heterogeneity, spatial hierarchies and linkages, and temporal change. Sandy barrier stress-response and recovery are greatly impacted by fluctuating water levels, stress intensity and frequency, as well as environmental gradients such as differences in sediment storage and supply. Aspects of these stress-response variables are articulated in terms of three main challenges to management: dynamic stability, spatial integrity, and temporal variability. These in turn form the framework for evaluative principles that may be applied to assess how policies and management practices reflect key biophysical processes and human stresses identified by the model.

ASSESSMENT OF HOUSEHOLD CARBON FOOTPRINT REDUCTION POTENTIALS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kramer, Klaas Jan; Homan, Greg; Brown, Rich

2009-04-15

The term ?household carbon footprint? refers to the total annual carbon emissions associated with household consumption of energy, goods, and services. In this project, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory developed a carbon footprint modeling framework that characterizes the key underlying technologies and processes that contribute to household carbon footprints in California and the United States. The approach breaks down the carbon footprint by 35 different household fuel end uses and 32 different supply chain fuel end uses. This level of end use detail allows energy and policy analysts to better understand the underlying technologies and processes contributing to the carbon footprintmore » of California households. The modeling framework was applied to estimate the annual home energy and supply chain carbon footprints of a prototypical California household. A preliminary assessment of parameter uncertainty associated with key model input data was also conducted. To illustrate the policy-relevance of this modeling framework, a case study was conducted that analyzed the achievable carbon footprint reductions associated with the adoption of energy efficient household and supply chain technologies.« less

A model framework for mortality and health data classified by age, area, and time.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-03-01

This article sets out a modeling framework for modeling health outcomes over area, age, and time dimensions that takes account of spatial correlation, interactions between dimensions, and cohort as well as age effects. The goals of the framework include parsimony and parameter interpretability. Multivariate extensions may be made allowing interdependent or shared effects between different outcomes (e.g., ill health and mortality). A particular focus is on assessing the proportionality assumption whereby separate age and area effects multiply to produce age-area mortality or illness rates, and age-area interactions are assumed not to exist. A trivariate (mortality-health) application of the framework involves cross-sectional data in the 33 London boroughs, while a longitudinal univariate application involves deaths for the same areas over four 5-year periods starting in 1979.

Gathering Validity Evidence for Surgical Simulation: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Borgersen, Nanna Jo; Naur, Therese M H; Sørensen, Stine M D; Bjerrum, Flemming; Konge, Lars; Subhi, Yousif; Thomsen, Ann Sofia S

2018-06-01

To identify current trends in the use of validity frameworks in surgical simulation, to provide an overview of the evidence behind the assessment of technical skills in all surgical specialties, and to present recommendations and guidelines for future validity studies. Validity evidence for assessment tools used in the evaluation of surgical performance is of paramount importance to ensure valid and reliable assessment of skills. We systematically reviewed the literature by searching 5 databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Library) for studies published from January 1, 2008, to July 10, 2017. We included original studies evaluating simulation-based assessments of health professionals in surgical specialties and extracted data on surgical specialty, simulator modality, participant characteristics, and the validity framework used. Data were synthesized qualitatively. We identified 498 studies with a total of 18,312 participants. Publications involving validity assessments in surgical simulation more than doubled from 2008 to 2010 (∼30 studies/year) to 2014 to 2016 (∼70 to 90 studies/year). Only 6.6% of the studies used the recommended contemporary validity framework (Messick). The majority of studies used outdated frameworks such as face validity. Significant differences were identified across surgical specialties. The evaluated assessment tools were mostly inanimate or virtual reality simulation models. An increasing number of studies have gathered validity evidence for simulation-based assessments in surgical specialties, but the use of outdated frameworks remains common. To address the current practice, this paper presents guidelines on how to use the contemporary validity framework when designing validity studies.

A Weight of Evidence Framework for Environmental Assessments: Inferring Quantities

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental assessments require the generation of quantitative parameters such as degradation rates and assessment products may be quantities such as criterion values or magnitudes of effects. When multiple data sets or outputs of multiple models are available, it may be appro...

Enhancing a socio-hydrological modelling framework through field observations: a case study in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

den Besten, Nadja; Pande, Saket; Savenije, Huub H. G.

2016-04-01

Recently a smallholder socio-hydrological modelling framework was proposed and deployed to understand the underlying dynamics of Agrarian Crisis in Maharashtra state of India. It was found that cotton and sugarcane smallholders whom lack irrigation and storage techniques are most susceptible to distress. This study further expands the application of the modelling framework to other crops that are abundant in the state of Maharashtra, such as Paddy, Jowar and Soyabean to assess whether the conclusions on the possible causes behind smallholder distress still hold. Further, a fieldwork will be undertaken in March 2016 in the district of Pune. During the fieldwork 50 smallholders will be interviewed in which socio-hydrological assumptions on hydrology and capital equations and corresponding closure relationships, incorporated the current model, will be put to test. Besides the assumptions, the questionnaires will be used to better understand the hydrological reality of the farm holders, in terms of water usage and storage capacity. In combination with historical records on the smallholders' socio-economic data acquired over the last thirty years available through several NGOs in the region, socio-hydrological realism of the modelling framework will be enhanced. The preliminary outcomes of a desktop study show the possibilities of a water-centric modelling framework in understanding the constraints on smallholder farming. The results and methods described can be a first step guiding following research on the modelling framework: a start in testing the framework in multiple rural locations around the globe.

Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms have serious adverse effects on human and environmental health. Herein, we develop a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in reservoirs in the contiguous U.S. The framework, which uses cl...

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.;

Environmental impact assessment of transportation projects: An analysis using an integrated GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Gafy, Mohamed Anwar

Transportation projects will have impact on the environment. The general environmental pollution and damage caused by roads is closely associated with the level of economic activity. Although Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are dependent on geo-spatial information in order to make an assessment, there are no rules per se how to conduct an environmental assessment. Also, the particular objective of each assessment is dictated case-by-case, based on what information and analyses are required. The conventional way of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study is a time consuming process because it has large number of dependent and independent variables which have to be taken into account, which also have different consequences. With the emergence of satellite remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this research presents a new framework for the analysis phase of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for transportation projects based on the integration between remote sensing technology, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling. By integrating the merits of the map overlay method and the matrix method, the framework analyzes comprehensively the environmental vulnerability around the road and its impact on the environment. This framework is expected to: (1) improve the quality of the decision making process, (2) be applied both to urban and inter-urban projects, regardless of transport mode, and (3) present the data and make the appropriate analysis to support the decision of the decision-makers and allow them to present these data to the public hearings in a simple manner. Case studies, transportation projects in the State of Florida, were analyzed to illustrate the use of the decision support framework and demonstrate its capabilities. This cohesive and integrated system will facilitate rational decisions through cost effective coordination of environmental information and data management that can be tailored to specific projects. The framework would facilitate collecting, organizing, analyzing, archiving, and coordinating the information and data necessary to support technical and policy transportation decisions.

A Multidirectional Model for Assessing Learning Disabled Students' Intelligence: An Information-Processing Framework.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swanson, H. Lee

1982-01-01

An information processing approach to the assessment of learning disabled students' intellectual performance is presented. The model is based on the assumption that intelligent behavior is comprised of a variety of problem- solving strategies. An account of child problem solving is explained and illustrated with a "thinking aloud" protocol.…

USE OF PBPK MODELS FOR ASSESSING ABSORBED DOSE AND CHE INHIBITION FROM AGGREGATE EXPOSURE OF INFANTS AND CHILDREN TO ORGANOPHOSPHORUS INSECTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

A physiological pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling framework has been established to assess cumulative risk of dose and injury of infants and children to organophosphorus (OP) insecticides from aggregate sources and routes. Exposure inputs were drawn from all reasonable sources, pr...

Assessing Measurement Equivalence in Ordered-Categorical Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elosua, Paula

2011-01-01

Assessing measurement equivalence in the framework of the common factor linear models (CFL) is known as factorial invariance. This methodology is used to evaluate the equivalence among the parameters of a measurement model among different groups. However, when dichotomous, Likert, or ordered responses are used, one of the assumptions of the CFL is…

Retrospective fire modeling: Quantifying the impacts of fire suppression

Treesearch

Brett H. Davis; Carol Miller; Sean A. Parks

2010-01-01

Land management agencies need to understand and monitor the consequences of their fire suppression decisions. We developed a framework for retrospective fire behavior modeling and impact assessment to determine where ignitions would have spread had they not been suppressed and to assess the cumulative effects that would have resulted. This document is a general...

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Performing Environmental Assessments: Application to Ecosystem Services in the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins (NC and VA,USA)

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses environmental models to inform rulemaking and policy decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As decision-making has moved towards integrated thinking and assessment (e.g. media, site, region, services), the increasing compl...

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Treesearch

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

A modular Human Exposure Model (HEM) framework to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Life Cycle Impact Analysis (LCIA) has proven to be a valuable tool for systematically comparing processes and products, and has been proposed for use in Chemical Alternatives Analysis (CAA). The exposure assessment portion of the human health impact scores of LCIA has historically focused on far-field sources (environmentally mediated exposures) while research has shown that use related exposures, (near-field exposures) typically dominate population exposure. Characterizing the human health impacts of chemicals in consumer products over the life cycle of these products requires an evaluation of both near-field as well far-field sources. Assessing the impacts of the near-field exposures requires bridging the scientific and technical gaps that currently prevent the harmonious use of the best available methods and tools from the fields of LCIA and human health exposure and risk assessment. The U.S. EPA’s Chemical Safety and Sustainability LC-HEM project is developing the Human Exposure Model (HEM) to assess near-field exposures to chemicals that occur to various populations over the life cycle of a commercial product. The HEM will be a publically available, web-based, modular system which will allow for the evaluation of chemical/product impacts in a LCIA framework to support CAA. We present here an overview of the framework for the modular HEM system. The framework includes a data flow diagram of in-progress and future planned modules, the definition of each mod

The Swiss Transplant Cohort Study's framework for assessing lifelong psychosocial factors in solid-organ transplants.

PubMed

De Geest, Sabina; Burkhalter, Hanna; Berben, Lut; Bogert, Laura Jane; Denhaerynck, Kris; Glass, Tracy R; Goetzmann, Lutz; Kirsch, Monika; Kiss, Alexander; Koller, Michael T; Piot-Ziegler, Chantal; Schmidt-Trucksäss, Arno

2013-09-01

Understanding outcomes after transplant requires a biopsychosocial model that includes biomedical and psychosocial factors. The latter, to date, are assessed only in a limited way as part of transplant registries or cohort studies. The Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS) is a nationwide open cohort study (starting May 2008) to systematically and prospectively assess psychosocial factors. This article describes the framework underpinning STCS's psychosocial assessment. The STCS framework was adapted from the multidimensional conceptual perspective of Dew et al to describe transplant psychosocial domains and specific outcomes by adding a time perspective, a system perspective, and interaction among domains. We propose a multidimensional, multilevel biopsychosocial framework representing mutually influencing domains from before to after transplant, and exemplify each domain by factors included in STCS and their measurement. The transplant patient, centrally positioned, is described by clinical and sociodemographic characteristics (eg, socioeconomic status, educational, professional, and relationship status). The following psychosocial domains further describe the patient: (1) physical/functional (eg, perceived health status, sleep quality, daytime sleepiness), (2) psychological (eg, depression, stress), (3) behavioral (eg, medication adherence, smoking, drug use, physical activity, sun protection), (4) social (eg, work capacity/return to work), and (5) global quality of life. Factors associated with health care system level (eg, trust in transplant team) are also included in the model. The STCS's psychosocial framework provides a basis for studying the interplay of biomedical, sociodemographic, psychosocial, behavioral, and health care system factors in view of transplant outcomes and therefore has the potential to guide biopsychosocial transplant research.

A paradigm shift toward a consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Fant, C.; Chen, H.; Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E. A.; Prinn, R. G.; Haigh, M.

2017-12-01

Estimates of physical and economic impacts of future climate change are subject to substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches of assessing climate impacts by evaluating a damage function or by multi-model comparisons based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we focus here on integrating impacts into a self-consistent coupled human and Earth system modeling framework that includes modules that represent multiple physical impacts. In a sample application we show that this framework is capable of investigating the physical impacts of climate change and socio-economic stressors. The projected climate impacts vary dramatically across the globe in a set of scenarios with global mean warming ranging between 2.4°C and 3.6°C above pre-industrial by 2100. Unabated emissions lead to substantial sea level rise, acidification that impacts the base of the oceanic food chain, air pollution that exceeds health standards by tenfold, water stress that impacts an additional 1 to 2 billion people globally and agricultural productivity that decreases substantially in many parts of the world. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C, which results in much smaller impacts. It is challenging for large internationally coordinated exercises to respond quickly to new policy targets. We propose that a paradigm shift toward a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts is needed to produce information relevant to evolving global climate policy and mitigation strategies in a timely way.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

Integrating a flexible modeling framework (FMF) with the network security assessment instrument to reduce software security risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, D. P.; Powell, J. D.

2002-01-01

This paper presents a portion of an overall research project on the generation of the network security assessment instrument to aid developers in assessing and assuring the security of software in the development and maintenance lifecycles.

Patient-reported outcomes in insomnia: development of a conceptual framework and endpoint model.

PubMed

Kleinman, Leah; Buysse, Daniel J; Harding, Gale; Lichstein, Kenneth; Kalsekar, Anupama; Roth, Thomas

2013-01-01

This article describes qualitative research conducted with patients with clinical diagnoses of insomnia and focuses on the development of a conceptual framework and endpoint model that identifies a hierarchy and interrelationships of potential outcomes in insomnia research. Focus groups were convened to discuss how patients experience insomnia and to generate items for patient-reported questionnaires on insomnia and associated daytime consequences. Results for the focus group produced two conceptual frameworks: one for sleep and one for daytime impairment. Each conceptual framework consists of hypothesized domains and items in each domain based on patient language taken from the focus group. These item pools may ultimately serve as a basis to develop new questionnaires to assess insomnia.

The Translational Science Benefits Model: A New Framework for Assessing the Health and Societal Benefits of Clinical and Translational Sciences

PubMed Central

Sarli, Cathy C.; Suiter, Amy M.; Carothers, Bobbi J.; Combs, Todd B.; Allen, Jae L.; Beers, Courtney E.; Evanoff, Bradley A.

2017-01-01

Abstract We report the development of the Translational Science Benefits Model (TSBM), a framework designed to support institutional assessment of clinical and translational research outcomes to measure clinical and community health impacts beyond bibliometric measures. The TSBM includes 30 specific and potentially measurable indicators that reflect benefits that accrue from clinical and translational science research such as products, system characteristics, or activities. Development of the TSBM was based on literature review, a modified Delphi method, and in‐house expert panel feedback. Three case studies illustrate the feasibility and face validity of the TSBM for identification of clinical and community health impacts that result from translational science activities. Future plans for the TSBM include further pilot testing and a resource library that will be freely available for evaluators, translational scientists, and academic institutions who wish to implement the TSBM framework in their own evaluation efforts. PMID:28887873

Defining and Assessing Quality Improvement Outcomes: A Framework for Public Health

PubMed Central

Nawaz, Saira; Thomas, Craig; Young, Andrea

2015-01-01

We describe an evidence-based framework to define and assess the impact of quality improvement (QI) in public health. Developed to address programmatic and research-identified needs for articulating the value of public health QI in aggregate, this framework proposes a standardized set of measures to monitor and improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public health programs and operations. We reviewed the scientific literature and analyzed QI initiatives implemented through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Public Health Improvement Initiative to inform the selection of 5 efficiency and 8 effectiveness measures. This framework provides a model for identifying the types of improvement outcomes targeted by public health QI efforts and a means to understand QI’s impact on the practice of public health. PMID:25689185

Linking stressors and ecological responses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Solomon, K.R.; Butcher, J.B.; Harrass, M.; Landis, W.G.; Power, M.; Rattner, B.A.; Warren-Hicks, W.J.; Wenger, R.; Foran, Jeffery A.; Ferenc, Susan A.

1999-01-01

To characterize risk, it is necessary to quantify the linkages and interactions between chemical, physical and biological stressors and endpoints in the conceptual framework for ecological risk assessment (ERA). This can present challenges in a multiple stressor analysis, and it will not always be possible to develop a quantitative stressor-response profile. This review commences with a conceptual representation of the problem of developing a linkage analysis for multiple stressors and responses. The remainder of the review surveys a variety of mathematical and statistical methods (e.g., ranking methods, matrix models, multivariate dose-response for mixtures, indices, visualization, simulation modeling and decision-oriented methods) for accomplishing the linkage analysis for multiple stressors. Describing the relationships between multiple stressors and ecological effects are critical components of 'effects assessment' in the ecological risk assessment framework.

A Regression Framework for Effect Size Assessments in Longitudinal Modeling of Group Differences

PubMed Central

Feingold, Alan

2013-01-01

The use of growth modeling analysis (GMA)--particularly multilevel analysis and latent growth modeling--to test the significance of intervention effects has increased exponentially in prevention science, clinical psychology, and psychiatry over the past 15 years. Model-based effect sizes for differences in means between two independent groups in GMA can be expressed in the same metric (Cohen’s d) commonly used in classical analysis and meta-analysis. This article first reviews conceptual issues regarding calculation of d for findings from GMA and then introduces an integrative framework for effect size assessments that subsumes GMA. The new approach uses the structure of the linear regression model, from which effect sizes for findings from diverse cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses can be calculated with familiar statistics, such as the regression coefficient, the standard deviation of the dependent measure, and study duration. PMID:23956615

Monitoring alert and drowsy states by modeling EEG source nonstationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sheng-Hsiou; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2017-10-01

Objective. As a human brain performs various cognitive functions within ever-changing environments, states of the brain characterized by recorded brain activities such as electroencephalogram (EEG) are inevitably nonstationary. The challenges of analyzing the nonstationary EEG signals include finding neurocognitive sources that underlie different brain states and using EEG data to quantitatively assess the state changes. Approach. This study hypothesizes that brain activities under different states, e.g. levels of alertness, can be modeled as distinct compositions of statistically independent sources using independent component analysis (ICA). This study presents a framework to quantitatively assess the EEG source nonstationarity and estimate levels of alertness. The framework was tested against EEG data collected from 10 subjects performing a sustained-attention task in a driving simulator. Main results. Empirical results illustrate that EEG signals under alert versus drowsy states, indexed by reaction speeds to driving challenges, can be characterized by distinct ICA models. By quantifying the goodness-of-fit of each ICA model to the EEG data using the model deviation index (MDI), we found that MDIs were significantly correlated with the reaction speeds (r  =  -0.390 with alertness models and r  =  0.449 with drowsiness models) and the opposite correlations indicated that the two models accounted for sources in the alert and drowsy states, respectively. Based on the observed source nonstationarity, this study also proposes an online framework using a subject-specific ICA model trained with an initial (alert) state to track the level of alertness. For classification of alert against drowsy states, the proposed online framework achieved an averaged area-under-curve of 0.745 and compared favorably with a classic power-based approach. Significance. This ICA-based framework provides a new way to study changes of brain states and can be applied to monitoring cognitive or mental states of human operators in attention-critical settings or in passive brain-computer interfaces.

FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS FOR USE IN SAFETY OR RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

ABSTRACT

Proposed applications of increasingly sophisticated biologically-based computational models, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, raise the issue of how to evaluate whether the models are adequate for proposed uses including safety or risk ...

Toward Multi-Model Frameworks Addressing Multi-Sector Dynamics, Risks, and Resiliency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, R. H.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Barrett, C.; Kraucunas, I.; Rice, J.; Sue Wing, I.; Bhaduri, B. L.; Reed, P. M.

2016-12-01

This presentation will report on the findings of recent modeling studies and a series of workshops and other efforts convened under the auspices of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to improve integration of critical infrastructure, natural resources, integrated assessment, and human systems modeling. The focus is issues related to drought and increased variability of water supply at the energy-water-land nexus. One motivation for the effort is the potential for impact cascades across coupled built, natural, and socioeconomic systems stressed by social and environmental change. The design is for an adaptable modeling framework that will includes a repository of independently-developed modeling tools of varying complexity - from coarser grid, longer time-horizon to higher-resolution shorter-term models of socioeconomic systems, infrastructure, and natural resources. The models draw from three interlocking research communities: Earth system, impacts/adaptation/vulnerability, and integrated assessment. A key lesson will be explored, namely the importance of defining a clear use perspective to limit dimensionality, focus modeling, and facilitate uncertainty characterization and communication.

A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.; Cole, Steven J.

2016-04-01

It has been common for flood forecasting systems to be commissioned at a catchment or regional level in response to local priorities and hydrological conditions, leading to variety in system design and model choice. As systems mature and efficiencies of national management are sought, there can be a drive towards system rationalisation, gaining an overview of model performance and consideration of simplification through model-type convergence. Flood forecasting model assessments, whilst overseen at a national level, may be commissioned and managed at a catchment and regional level, take a variety of forms and be large in number. This presents a challenge when an integrated national assessment is required to guide operational use of flood forecasts and plan future investment in flood forecasting models and supporting hydrometric monitoring. This contribution reports on how a nationally consistent framework for flood forecasting model performance has been developed to embrace many past, ongoing and future assessments for local river systems by engineering consultants across England & Wales. The outcome is a Performance Summary for every site model assessed which, on a single page, contains relevant catchment information for context, a selection of overlain forecast and observed hydrographs and a set of performance statistics with associated displays of novel condensed form. One display provides performance comparison with other models that may exist for the site. The performance statistics include skill scores for forecasting events (flow/level threshold crossings) of differing severity/rarity, indicating their probability and likely timing, which have real value in an operational setting. The local models assessed can be of any type and span rainfall-runoff (conceptual and transfer function) and flow routing (hydrological and hydrodynamic) forms. Also accommodated by the framework is the national G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model, providing area-wide coverage across the fluvial rivers of England and Wales, which can be assessed at gauged sites. Thus the performance of the national G2G model forecasts can be directly compared with that from the local models. The Performance Summary for each site model is complemented by a national spatial analysis of model performance stratified by model-type, geographical region and forecast lead-time. The map displays provide an extensive evidence-base that can be interrogated, through a Flood Forecasting Model Performance web portal, to reveal fresh insights into comparative performance across locations, lead-times and models. This work was commissioned by the Environment Agency in partnership with Natural Resources Wales and the Flood Forecasting Centre for England and Wales.

A framework for process-based assessment of regional climate model experiments: applied to projections of southern African precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Jones, Richard

2015-04-01

There is a demand from adaptation planners for regional climate change projections, particularly the finer resolution data delivered by regional models. However, climate models are subject to important uncertainties, and their projections diverge substantially, particularly for precipitation. So how should decision makers know which futures to consider and which to disregard? Model evaluation is clearly a priority. The majority of studies seeking to assess the validity of projections are based on comparison of the models' twentieth century climatologies with observations or reanalysis. Whilst this work is very important, examination of the modelled mean state it is not sufficient to assess the credibility of modelled changes. Direct investigation of the mechanisms for change is also vital. In this study, a framework for process-based analysis of projections is presented, whereby circulation changes accompanying future responses are examined, and then compared to atmospheric dynamics during historical years in models and reanalyses. This framework has previously been applied to investigate a drying signal in West Africa, and will here be used to examine projected precipitation change in southern Africa. An ensemble of five global and regional model experiments will be employed, consisting of five perturbed versions of HadCM3 and five corresponding runs of HadRM3P (PRECIS), run over the CORDEX Africa domain. The global and regional model runs show contrasting future responses: there is a strong drying in the global models over southern Africa during the rainy season, but the regional models show drying over Madagascar and the south west Indian Ocean. Circulation changes associated with these projections will be presented as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms for change and the reasons for difference between the global and regional models. The interannual variability will also be examined and compared to reanalysis to explore how well the models represent the dipole between southern Africa and Madagascar in the twentieth century simulations. This analysis could shed light on the credibility of the projected changes, and the relative trustworthiness of the global and regional models. This research makes a valuable contribution to the understanding of mechanisms for change in southern Africa. It also has wider relevance for regional climate model studies, in highlighting the need to evaluate models on a case by case basis, and providing a framework for assessment which could be applied to other models and other regions.

Development of a landscape integrity model framework to support regional conservation planning.

PubMed

Walston, Leroy J; Hartmann, Heidi M

2018-01-01

Land managers increasingly rely upon landscape assessments to understand the status of natural resources and identify conservation priorities. Many of these landscape planning efforts rely on geospatial models that characterize the ecological integrity of the landscape. These general models utilize measures of habitat disturbance and human activity to map indices of ecological integrity. We built upon these modeling frameworks by developing a Landscape Integrity Index (LII) model using geospatial datasets of the human footprint, as well as incorporation of other indicators of ecological integrity such as biodiversity and vegetation departure. Our LII model serves as a general indicator of ecological integrity in a regional context of human activity, biodiversity, and change in habitat composition. We also discuss the application of the LII framework in two related coarse-filter landscape conservation approaches to expand the size and connectedness of protected areas as regional mitigation for anticipated land-use changes.

Development of a landscape integrity model framework to support regional conservation planning

PubMed Central

Hartmann, Heidi M.

2018-01-01

Land managers increasingly rely upon landscape assessments to understand the status of natural resources and identify conservation priorities. Many of these landscape planning efforts rely on geospatial models that characterize the ecological integrity of the landscape. These general models utilize measures of habitat disturbance and human activity to map indices of ecological integrity. We built upon these modeling frameworks by developing a Landscape Integrity Index (LII) model using geospatial datasets of the human footprint, as well as incorporation of other indicators of ecological integrity such as biodiversity and vegetation departure. Our LII model serves as a general indicator of ecological integrity in a regional context of human activity, biodiversity, and change in habitat composition. We also discuss the application of the LII framework in two related coarse-filter landscape conservation approaches to expand the size and connectedness of protected areas as regional mitigation for anticipated land-use changes. PMID:29614093

Source-to-Outcome Microbial Exposure and Risk Modeling Framework

EPA Science Inventory

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a computer-based data-delivery and modeling approach that integrates interdisciplinary fate/transport, exposure, and impact models and databases to characterize potential health impacts/risks due to pathogens. As such, a QMRA ex...

Using the Entrustable Professional Activities Framework in the Assessment of Procedural Skills.

PubMed

Pugh, Debra; Cavalcanti, Rodrigo B; Halman, Samantha; Ma, Irene W Y; Mylopoulos, Maria; Shanks, David; Stroud, Lynfa

2017-04-01

The entrustable professional activity (EPA) framework has been identified as a useful approach to assessment in competency-based education. To apply an EPA framework for assessment, essential skills necessary for entrustment to occur must first be identified. Using an EPA framework, our study sought to (1) define the essential skills required for entrustment for 7 bedside procedures expected of graduates of Canadian internal medicine (IM) residency programs, and (2) develop rubrics for the assessment of these procedural skills. An initial list of essential skills was defined for each procedural EPA by focus groups of experts at 4 academic centers using the nominal group technique. These lists were subsequently vetted by representatives from all Canadian IM training programs through a web-based survey. Consensus (more than 80% agreement) about inclusion of each item was sought using a modified Delphi exercise. Qualitative survey data were analyzed using a framework approach to inform final assessment rubrics for each procedure. Initial lists of essential skills for procedural EPAs ranged from 10 to 24 items. A total of 111 experts completed the national survey. After 2 iterations, consensus was reached on all items. Following qualitative analysis, final rubrics were created, which included 6 to 10 items per procedure. These EPA-based assessment rubrics represent a national consensus by Canadian IM clinician educators. They provide a practical guide for the assessment of procedural skills in a competency-based education model, and a robust foundation for future research on their implementation and evaluation.

A flexible framework for process-based hydraulic and water ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background Models that allow for design considerations of green infrastructure (GI) practices to control stormwater runoff and associated contaminants have received considerable attention in recent years. While popular, generally, the GI models are relatively simplistic. However, GI model predictions are being relied upon by many municipalities and State/Local agencies to make decisions about grey vs. green infrastructure improvement planning. Adding complexity to GI modeling frameworks may preclude their use in simpler urban planning situations. Therefore, the goal here was to develop a sophisticated, yet flexible tool that could be used by design engineers and researchers to capture and explore the effect of design factors and properties of the media used in the performance of GI systems at a relatively small scale. We deemed it essential to have a flexible GI modeling tool that is capable of simulating GI system components and specific biophysical processes affecting contaminants such as reactions, and particle-associated transport accurately while maintaining a high degree of flexibly to account for the myriad of GI alternatives. The mathematical framework for a stand-alone GI performance assessment tool has been developed and will be demonstrated.Framework Features The process-based model framework developed here can be used to model a diverse range of GI practices such as green roof, retention pond, bioretention, infiltration trench, permeable pavement and

A robust and flexible Geospatial Modeling Interface (GMI) for environmental model deployment and evaluation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper provides an overview of the GMI (Geospatial Modeling Interface) simulation framework for environmental model deployment and assessment. GMI currently provides access to multiple environmental models including AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W), Nitrate Leaching and Economic Analysis 2 (NLEA...

Risk Assessment in the 21st Century | Science Inventory | US ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer adequate. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS report on Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century, highlighting many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action framework into a chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing exposome also is presented. Finally, the systems-based AEP is described that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework. For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response as

Benchmarking hydrological model predictive capability for UK River flows and flood peaks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, Rosanna; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Data and hydrological models are now available for national hydrological analyses. However, hydrological model performance varies between catchments, and lumped, conceptual models are not able to produce adequate simulations everywhere. This study aims to benchmark hydrological model performance for catchments across the United Kingdom within an uncertainty analysis framework. We have applied four hydrological models from the FUSE framework to 1128 catchments across the UK. These models are all lumped models and run at a daily timestep, but differ in the model structural architecture and process parameterisations, therefore producing different but equally plausible simulations. We apply FUSE over a 20 year period from 1988-2008, within a GLUE Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses framework. Model performance was evaluated for each catchment, model structure and parameter set using standard performance metrics. These were calculated both for the whole time series and to assess seasonal differences in model performance. The GLUE uncertainty analysis framework was then applied to produce simulated 5th and 95th percentile uncertainty bounds for the daily flow time-series and additionally the annual maximum prediction bounds for each catchment. The results show that the model performance varies significantly in space and time depending on catchment characteristics including climate, geology and human impact. We identify regions where models are systematically failing to produce good results, and present reasons why this could be the case. We also identify regions or catchment characteristics where one model performs better than others, and have explored what structural component or parameterisation enables certain models to produce better simulations in these catchments. Model predictive capability was assessed for each catchment, through looking at the ability of the models to produce discharge prediction bounds which successfully bound the observed discharge. These results improve our understanding of the predictive capability of simple conceptual hydrological models across the UK and help us to identify where further effort is needed to develop modelling approaches to better represent different catchment and climate typologies.

A modular approach for item response theory modeling with the R package flirt.

PubMed

Jeon, Minjeong; Rijmen, Frank

2016-06-01

The new R package flirt is introduced for flexible item response theory (IRT) modeling of psychological, educational, and behavior assessment data. flirt integrates a generalized linear and nonlinear mixed modeling framework with graphical model theory. The graphical model framework allows for efficient maximum likelihood estimation. The key feature of flirt is its modular approach to facilitate convenient and flexible model specifications. Researchers can construct customized IRT models by simply selecting various modeling modules, such as parametric forms, number of dimensions, item and person covariates, person groups, link functions, etc. In this paper, we describe major features of flirt and provide examples to illustrate how flirt works in practice.

Framework for Uncertainty Assessment - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergeron, M. P.; Cole, C. R.; Murray, C. J.; Thorne, P. D.; Wurstner, S. K.

2002-05-01

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is in the process of development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology for use in future site assessments that addresses parameter uncertainty as well as uncertainties related to the groundwater conceptual model. The long-term goals of the effort are development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology for use in future assessments and analyses being made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater model. The basic approach in the framework developed for uncertainty assessment consists of: 1) Alternate conceptual model (ACM) identification to identify and document the major features and assumptions of each conceptual model. The process must also include a periodic review of the existing and proposed new conceptual models as data or understanding become available. 2) ACM development of each identified conceptual model through inverse modeling with historical site data. 3) ACM evaluation to identify which of conceptual models are plausible and should be included in any subsequent uncertainty assessments. 4) ACM uncertainty assessments will only be carried out for those ACMs determined to be plausible through comparison with historical observations and model structure identification measures. The parameter uncertainty assessment process generally involves: a) Model Complexity Optimization - to identify the important or relevant parameters for the uncertainty analysis; b) Characterization of Parameter Uncertainty - to develop the pdfs for the important uncertain parameters including identification of any correlations among parameters; c) Propagation of Uncertainty - to propagate parameter uncertainties (e.g., by first order second moment methods if applicable or by a Monte Carlo approach) through the model to determine the uncertainty in the model predictions of interest. 5)Estimation of combined ACM and scenario uncertainty by a double sum with each component of the inner sum (an individual CCDF) representing parameter uncertainty associated with a particular scenario and ACM and the outer sum enumerating the various plausible ACM and scenario combinations in order to represent the combined estimate of uncertainty (a family of CCDFs). A final important part of the framework includes identification, enumeration, and documentation of all the assumptions, which include those made during conceptual model development, required by the mathematical model, required by the numerical model, made during the spatial and temporal descretization process, needed to assign the statistical model and associated parameters that describe the uncertainty in the relevant input parameters, and finally those assumptions required by the propagation method. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RL01830.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Mapping Student Understanding in Chemistry: The Perspectives of Chemists

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Claesgens, Jennifer; Scalise, Kathleen; Wilson, Mark; Stacy, Angelica

2009-01-01

Preliminary pilot studies and a field study show how a generalizable conceptual framework calibrated with item response modeling can be used to describe the development of student conceptual understanding in chemistry. ChemQuery is an assessment system that uses a framework of the key ideas in the discipline, called the Perspectives of Chemists,…

High Impact Anti-Crime Program: A Framework for Assessing Project-Level Evaluation Plans.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kupersmith, Gerrie

The pamphlet describes an evaluation model for crime reduction projects developed by National Institute of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice sponsored research. It is meant to assist justice agency and project managers in determining completeness of evaluation planning by providing a framework against which to measure their evaluation…

Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Abad, S.; González, M.; Larreynaga, J.; Gavidia, F.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Medina, R.

2013-12-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

Communities ready for takeoffIntegrating social assets for biofuel site-selection modeling.

PubMed

Rijkhoff, Sanne A M; Hoard, Season A; Gaffney, Michael J; Smith, Paul M

2017-01-01

Although much of the social science literature supports the importance of community assets for success in many policy areas, these assets are often overlooked when selecting communities for new infrastructure facilities. Extensive collaboration is crucial for the success of environmental and economic projects, yet it often is not adequately addressed when making siting decisions for new projects. This article develops a social asset framework that includes social, creative, and human capital to inform site-selection decisions. This framework is applied to the Northwest Advanced Renewables Alliance project to assess community suitability for biofuel-related developments. This framework is the first to take all necessary community assets into account, providing insight into successful site selection beyond current models. The framework not only serves as a model for future biorefinery projects but also guides tasks that depend on informed location selection for success.

A framework to analyze emissions implications of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated

Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. Themore » evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.« less

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-06-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forestmore » compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment.« less

Promoting Excellence in Nursing Education (PENE): Pross evaluation model.

PubMed

Pross, Elizabeth A

2010-08-01

The purpose of this article is to examine the Promoting Excellence in Nursing Education (PENE) Pross evaluation model. A conceptual evaluation model, such as the one described here, may be useful to nurse academicians in the ongoing evaluation of educational programs, especially those with goals of excellence. Frameworks for evaluating nursing programs are necessary because they offer a way to systematically assess the educational effectiveness of complex nursing programs. This article describes the conceptual framework and its tenets of excellence. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic Vocational Assessment for Special Needs Student Candidates for Vocational Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blackstone Valley Regional Vocational School District, Upton, MA.

A project was conducted to bridge the gap between the coneptualized model of vocational evaluation within a rehabilitation framework and the needs of a changing career development model within an educational setting. The project focus was on ascertaining the state of the art of vocational assessment of special needs individuals, then building a…

Identification of Reading Problems in First Grade within a Response-to-Intervention Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Speece, Deborah L.; Schatschneider, Christopher; Silverman, Rebecca; Case, Lisa Pericola; Cooper, David H.; Jacobs, Dawn M.

2011-01-01

Models of Response to Intervention (RTI) include parameters of assessment and instruction. This study focuses on assessment with the purpose of developing a screening battery that validly and efficiently identifies first-grade children at risk for reading problems. In an RTI model, these children would be candidates for early intervention. We…

Using Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis to Test Measurement Invariance in Raters: A Clinical Skills Examination Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahraman, Nilufer; Brown, Crystal B.

2015-01-01

Psychometric models based on structural equation modeling framework are commonly used in many multiple-choice test settings to assess measurement invariance of test items across examinee subpopulations. The premise of the current article is that they may also be useful in the context of performance assessment tests to test measurement invariance…

Career Goals in Young Adults: Personal Resources, Goal Appraisals, Attitudes, and Goal Management Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haratsis, Jessica M.; Hood, Michelle; Creed, Peter A.

2015-01-01

We tested a model based on the dual-process framework that assessed the relationships among personal resources, career goal appraisals, career attitudes, and career goal management, which have not been previously assessed together. The model (tested on a sample of 486 young adults: 74% female, M[subscript]age = 22 years) proposed that personal…

CEOS SEO and GISS Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Killough, Brian; Stover, Shelley

2008-01-01

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) provides a brief to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) regarding the CEOS Systems Engineering Office (SEO) and current work on climate requirements and analysis. A "system framework" is provided for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). SEO climate-related tasks are outlined including the assessment of essential climate variable (ECV) parameters, use of the "systems framework" to determine relevant informational products and science models and the performance of assessments and gap analyses of measurements and missions for each ECV. Climate requirements, including instruments and missions, measurements, knowledge and models, and decision makers, are also outlined. These requirements would establish traceability from instruments to products and services allowing for benefit evaluation of instruments and measurements. Additionally, traceable climate requirements would provide a better understanding of global climate models.

Methodology for setting risk-based concentrations of contaminants in soil and groundwater and application to a model contaminated site.

PubMed

Fujinaga, Aiichiro; Uchiyama, Iwao; Morisawa, Shinsuke; Yoneda, Minoru; Sasamoto, Yuzuru

2012-01-01

In Japan, environmental standards for contaminants in groundwater and in leachate from soil are set with the assumption that they are used for drinking water over a human lifetime. Where there is neither a well nor groundwater used for drinking, the standard is thus too severe. Therefore, remediation based on these standards incurs excessive effort and cost. In contrast, the environmental-assessment procedure used in the United States and the Netherlands considers the site conditions (land use, existing wells, etc.); however, a risk assessment is required for each site. Therefore, this study proposes a new framework for judging contamination in Japan by considering the merits of the environmental standards used and a method for risk assessment. The framework involves setting risk-based concentrations that are attainable remediation goals for contaminants in soil and groundwater. The framework was then applied to a model contaminated site for risk management, and the results are discussed regarding the effectiveness and applicability of the new methodology. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

CMAQ Model Evaluation Framework

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CMAQ is tested to establish the modeling system’s credibility in predicting pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. Evaluation of CMAQ has been designed to assess the model’s performance for specific time periods and for specific uses.

Theoretical Models, Assessment Frameworks and Test Construction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chalhoub-Deville, Micheline

1997-01-01

Reviews the usefulness of proficiency models influencing second language testing. Findings indicate that several factors contribute to the lack of congruence between models and test construction and make a case for distinguishing between theoretical models. Underscores the significance of an empirical, contextualized and structured approach to the…

Evaluating data worth for ground-water management under uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, B.J.

1999-01-01

A decision framework is presented for assessing the value of ground-water sampling within the context of ground-water management under uncertainty. The framework couples two optimization models-a chance-constrained ground-water management model and an integer-programing sampling network design model-to identify optimal pumping and sampling strategies. The methodology consists of four steps: (1) The optimal ground-water management strategy for the present level of model uncertainty is determined using the chance-constrained management model; (2) for a specified data collection budget, the monitoring network design model identifies, prior to data collection, the sampling strategy that will minimize model uncertainty; (3) the optimal ground-water management strategy is recalculated on the basis of the projected model uncertainty after sampling; and (4) the worth of the monitoring strategy is assessed by comparing the value of the sample information-i.e., the projected reduction in management costs-with the cost of data collection. Steps 2-4 are repeated for a series of data collection budgets, producing a suite of management/monitoring alternatives, from which the best alternative can be selected. A hypothetical example demonstrates the methodology's ability to identify the ground-water sampling strategy with greatest net economic benefit for ground-water management.A decision framework is presented for assessing the value of ground-water sampling within the context of ground-water management under uncertainty. The framework couples two optimization models - a chance-constrained ground-water management model and an integer-programming sampling network design model - to identify optimal pumping and sampling strategies. The methodology consists of four steps: (1) The optimal ground-water management strategy for the present level of model uncertainty is determined using the chance-constrained management model; (2) for a specified data collection budget, the monitoring network design model identifies, prior to data collection, the sampling strategy that will minimize model uncertainty; (3) the optimal ground-water management strategy is recalculated on the basis of the projected model uncertainty after sampling; and (4) the worth of the monitoring strategy is assessed by comparing the value of the sample information - i.e., the projected reduction in management costs - with the cost of data collection. Steps 2-4 are repeated for a series of data collection budgets, producing a suite of management/monitoring alternatives, from which the best alternative can be selected. A hypothetical example demonstrates the methodology's ability to identify the ground-water sampling strategy with greatest net economic benefit for ground-water management.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yao; Balaprakash, Prasanna; Meng, Jiayuan

We present Raexplore, a performance modeling framework for architecture exploration. Raexplore enables rapid, automated, and systematic search of architecture design space by combining hardware counter-based performance characterization and analytical performance modeling. We demonstrate Raexplore for two recent manycore processors IBM Blue- Gene/Q compute chip and Intel Xeon Phi, targeting a set of scientific applications. Our framework is able to capture complex interactions between architectural components including instruction pipeline, cache, and memory, and to achieve a 3–22% error for same-architecture and cross-architecture performance predictions. Furthermore, we apply our framework to assess the two processors, and discover and evaluate a list ofmore » architectural scaling options for future processor designs.« less

HIGHLIGHTING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONDITIONAL AND UNCONDITIONAL QUANTILE REGRESSION APPROACHES THROUGH AN APPLICATION TO ASSESS MEDICATION ADHERENCE

PubMed Central

BORAH, BIJAN J.; BASU, ANIRBAN

2014-01-01

The quantile regression (QR) framework provides a pragmatic approach in understanding the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of an outcome. However, the QR framework that has pervaded the applied economics literature is based on the conditional quantile regression method. It is used to assess the impact of a covariate on a quantile of the outcome conditional on specific values of other covariates. In most cases, conditional quantile regression may generate results that are often not generalizable or interpretable in a policy or population context. In contrast, the unconditional quantile regression method provides more interpretable results as it marginalizes the effect over the distributions of other covariates in the model. In this paper, the differences between these two regression frameworks are highlighted, both conceptually and econometrically. Additionally, using real-world claims data from a large US health insurer, alternative QR frameworks are implemented to assess the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of medication adherence among elderly patients with Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:23616446

A Simple Model Framework to Explore the Deeply Uncertain, Local Sea Level Response to Climate Change. A Case Study on New Orleans, Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Alexander; Louchard, Domitille; Keller, Klaus

2016-04-01

Sea-level rise threatens many coastal areas around the world. The integrated assessment of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies requires a sound understanding of the upper tails and the major drivers of the uncertainties. Global warming causes sea-level to rise, primarily due to thermal expansion of the oceans and mass loss of the major ice sheets, smaller ice caps and glaciers. These components show distinctly different responses to temperature changes with respect to response time, threshold behavior, and local fingerprints. Projections of these different components are deeply uncertain. Projected uncertainty ranges strongly depend on (necessary) pragmatic choices and assumptions; e.g. on the applied climate scenarios, which processes to include and how to parameterize them, and on error structure of the observations. Competing assumptions are very hard to objectively weigh. Hence, uncertainties of sea-level response are hard to grasp in a single distribution function. The deep uncertainty can be better understood by making clear the key assumptions. Here we demonstrate this approach using a relatively simple model framework. We present a mechanistically motivated, but simple model framework that is intended to efficiently explore the deeply uncertain sea-level response to anthropogenic climate change. The model consists of 'building blocks' that represent the major components of sea-level response and its uncertainties, including threshold behavior. The framework's simplicity enables the simulation of large ensembles allowing for an efficient exploration of parameter uncertainty and for the simulation of multiple combined adaptation and mitigation strategies. The model framework can skilfully reproduce earlier major sea level assessments, but due to the modular setup it can also be easily utilized to explore high-end scenarios and the effect of competing assumptions and parameterizations.

FACTORS INFLUENCING TOTAL DIETARY EXPOSURES OF YOUNG CHILDREN

EPA Science Inventory

A deterministic model was developed to identify the critical input parameters needed to assess dietary intakes of young children. The model was used as a framework for understanding the important factors in data collection and data analysis. Factors incorporated into the model i...

Developmental framework to validate future designs of ballistic neck protection.

PubMed

Breeze, J; Midwinter, M J; Pope, D; Porter, K; Hepper, A E; Clasper, J

2013-01-01

The number of neck injuries has increased during the war in Afghanistan, and they have become an appreciable source of mortality and long-term morbidity for UK servicemen. A three-dimensional numerical model of the neck is necessary to allow simulation of penetrating injury from explosive fragments so that the design of body armour can be optimal, and a framework is required to validate and describe the individual components of this program. An interdisciplinary consensus group consisting of military maxillofacial surgeons, and biomedical, physical, and material scientists was convened to generate the components of the framework, and as a result it incorporates the following components: analysis of deaths and long-term morbidity, assessment of critical cervical structures for incorporation into the model, characterisation of explosive fragments, evaluation of the material of which the body armour is made, and mapping of the entry sites of fragments. The resulting numerical model will simulate the wound tract produced by fragments of differing masses and velocities, and illustrate the effects of temporary cavities on cervical neurovascular structures. Using this framework, a new shirt to be worn under body armour that incorporates ballistic cervical protection has been developed for use in Afghanistan. New designs of the collar validated by human factors and assessment of coverage are currently being incorporated into early versions of the numerical model. The aim of this paper is to describe this developmental framework and provide an update on the current progress of its individual components. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of online public opinions on large infrastructure projects: A case study of the Three Gorges Project in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Hanchen, E-mail: jhc13@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn; Qiang, Maoshan, E-mail: qiangms@tsinghua.edu.cn; Lin, Peng, E-mail: celinpe@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn

Public opinion becomes increasingly salient in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects which have significant impacts to the environment and the society. However, traditional survey methods are inefficient in collection and assessment of the public opinion due to its large quantity and diversity. Recently, Social media platforms provide a rich data source for monitoring and assessing the public opinion on controversial infrastructure projects. This paper proposes an assessment framework to transform unstructured online public opinions on large infrastructure projects into sentimental and topical indicators for enhancing practices of ex post evaluation and public participation. The framework usesmore » web crawlers to collect online comments related to a large infrastructure project and employs two natural language processing technologies, including sentiment analysis and topic modeling, with spatio-temporal analysis, to transform these comments into indicators for assessing online public opinion on the project. Based on the framework, we investigate the online public opinion of the Three Gorges Project on China's largest microblogging site, namely, Weibo. Assessment results present spatial-temporal distributions of post intensity and sentiment polarity, reveals major topics with different sentiments and summarizes managerial implications, for ex post evaluation of the world's largest hydropower project. The proposed assessment framework is expected to be widely applied as a methodological strategy to assess public opinion in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects. - Highlights: • We developed a framework to assess online public opinion on large infrastructure projects with environmental impacts. • Indicators were built to assess post intensity, sentiment polarity and major topics of the public opinion. • We took the Three Gorges Project (TGP) as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness proposed framework. • We revealed spatial-temporal patterns of post intensity and sentiment polarity on the TGP. • We drew implications for a more in-depth understanding of the public opinion on large infrastructure projects.« less

Educational Quality, Outcomes Assessment, and Policy Change: The Virginia Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culver, Steve

2010-01-01

The higher education system in the Commonwealth of Virginia in the United States provides a case model for how discussions regarding educational quality and assessment of that quality have affected institutions' policy decisions and implementation. Using Levin's (1998) policy analysis framework, this essay explores how assessment of student…

Vocational Assessment for Special Needs Individuals. Workshop Report to Participants, State Invitational Model Building Workshop (Sheraton-Tara Motel, Framingham, Massachusetts, January 24-25, 1980).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stodden, Robert A.; And Others

A project was conducted to bridge the gap between the conceptualized model of vocational evaluation within a rehabilitation framework and the needs of a changing career development model within an educational setting. The project focus was on ascertaining the state of the art of vocational assessment of special needs individuals, then building a…

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change in the United States. The primary goal of this framework to estimate how climate change impacts and damages in the United States are avoided or reduced due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. Scenarios are designed to explore key uncertainties around the measurement of these changes. The modeling exercise presented in this Special Issue includes two integrated assessment models and 15 sectoral models encompassing six broad impacts sectors - water resources, electric power, infrastructure, human health, ecosystems, and forests. Three consistent emissions scenarios are used to analyze the benefits of global GHG mitigation targets: a reference and two policy scenarios, with total radiative forcing in 2100 of 10.0W/m2, 4.5W/m2, and 3.7W/m2. A range of climate sensitivities, climate models, natural variability measures, and structural uncertainties of sectoral models are examined to explore the implications of key uncertainties. This overview paper describes the motivations, goals, design, and academic contribution of the CIRA modeling exercise and briefly summarizes the subsequent papers in this Special Issue. A summary of results across impact sectors is provided showing that: GHG mitigation provides benefits to the United States that increase over

A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

2013-04-01

Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change scenarios developed by KNMI for precipitation and reference evapotranspiration according to Penman-Monteith. Special focus in the project was on the role of uncertainty. How valid is the information that is generated by this modelling framework? What are the most important uncertainties of the input data, how do they affect the results of the model chain and how can the uncertainties of the data, results, and model concepts be quantified and communicated? Besides these technical issues, an important part of the study was devoted to the perception of stakeholders. Stakeholder analysis and additional working sessions yielded insight into how the models, their results and the uncertainties are perceived, how the modelling framework and results connect to the stakeholders' information demands and what kind of additional information is needed for adequate support on decision making.

Quantifying uncertainty in health impact assessment: a case-study example on indoor housing ventilation.

PubMed

Mesa-Frias, Marco; Chalabi, Zaid; Foss, Anna M

2014-01-01

Quantitative health impact assessment (HIA) is increasingly being used to assess the health impacts attributable to an environmental policy or intervention. As a consequence, there is a need to assess uncertainties in the assessments because of the uncertainty in the HIA models. In this paper, a framework is developed to quantify the uncertainty in the health impacts of environmental interventions and is applied to evaluate the impacts of poor housing ventilation. The paper describes the development of the framework through three steps: (i) selecting the relevant exposure metric and quantifying the evidence of potential health effects of the exposure; (ii) estimating the size of the population affected by the exposure and selecting the associated outcome measure; (iii) quantifying the health impact and its uncertainty. The framework introduces a novel application for the propagation of uncertainty in HIA, based on fuzzy set theory. Fuzzy sets are used to propagate parametric uncertainty in a non-probabilistic space and are applied to calculate the uncertainty in the morbidity burdens associated with three indoor ventilation exposure scenarios: poor, fair and adequate. The case-study example demonstrates how the framework can be used in practice, to quantify the uncertainty in health impact assessment where there is insufficient information to carry out a probabilistic uncertainty analysis. © 2013.

A GIS-based generic real-time risk assessment framework and decision tools for chemical spills in the river basin.

PubMed

Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Lung, Wu-seng; Guo, Liang; Li, Mei

2012-08-15

This paper presents a generic framework and decision tools of real-time risk assessment on Emergency Environmental Decision Support System for response to chemical spills in river basin. The generic "4-step-3-model" framework is able to delineate the warning area and the impact on vulnerable receptors considering four types of hazards referring to functional area, societal impact, and human health and ecology system. Decision tools including the stand-alone system and software components were implemented on GIS platform. A detailed case study on the Songhua River nitrobenzene spill illustrated the goodness of the framework and tool Spill first responders and decision makers of catchment management will benefit from the rich, visual and dynamic hazard information output from the software. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

PubMed

Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat

2013-09-01

The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clonal Expansion (CE) Models in Cancer Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Cancer arises when cells accumulate sufficient critical mutations. Carcinogens increase the probability of mutation during cell division or promote clonal expansion within stages. Multistage CE models recapitulate this process and provide a framework for incorporating relevant da...

Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies – A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques

PubMed Central

Geue, Claudia; Wu, Olivia; Xin, Yiqiao; Heggie, Robert; Hutchinson, Sharon; Martin, Natasha K.; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Goldberg, David

2015-01-01

Introduction Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers. PMID:26689908

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

PubMed

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

A framework for performance and data quality assessment of Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) systems in health care settings.

PubMed

van der Togt, Remko; Bakker, Piet J M; Jaspers, Monique W M

2011-04-01

RFID offers great opportunities to health care. Nevertheless, prior experiences also show that RFID systems have not been designed and tested in response to the particular needs of health care settings and might introduce new risks. The aim of this study is to present a framework that can be used to assess the performance of RFID systems particularly in health care settings. We developed a framework describing a systematic approach that can be used for assessing the feasibility of using an RFID technology in a particular healthcare setting; more specific for testing the impact of environmental factors on the quality of RFID generated data and vice versa. This framework is based on our own experiences with an RFID pilot implementation in an academic hospital in The Netherlands and a literature review concerning RFID test methods and current insights of RFID implementations in healthcare. The implementation of an RFID system within the blood transfusion chain inside a hospital setting was used as a show case to explain the different phases of the framework. The framework consists of nine phases, including an implementation development plan, RFID and medical equipment interference tests, data accuracy- and data completeness tests to be run in laboratory, simulated field and real field settings. The potential risks that RFID technologies may bring to the healthcare setting should be thoroughly evaluated before they are introduced into a vital environment. The RFID performance assessment framework that we present can act as a reference model to start an RFID development, engineering, implementation and testing plan and more specific, to assess the potential risks of interference and to test the quality of the RFID generated data potentially influenced by physical objects in specific health care environments. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alyamani, Talal M.

Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the conflicting objectives of different stakeholders.

THE RELATED ROLE OF ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING FRAMEWORKS

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years the assessment of environmental systems for the purpose of regulatory decision making has expanded considerably from a medium-specific focus to a comprehensive assessment of contaminant movement from a source, through a multi-media environment (fate and transport)...

Making Sense of the Data from Complex Assessments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mislevy, Robert J.; Steinberg, Linda S.; Breyer, F. Jay; Almond, Russell G.; Johnson, Lynn

2002-01-01

Presents a design framework that incorporates integrated structures for modeling knowledge and skills, designing tasks, and extracting and synthesizing evidence. Illustrates these ideas in the context of a project that assesses problem solving in dental hygiene through computer-based simulations. (SLD)

Evaluation of Curriculum and Student Learning Needs Using 360 Degree Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ladyshewsky, Richard; Taplin, Ross

2015-01-01

This research used a 360 degree assessment tool modelled from the competing values framework to assess the curriculum. A total of 100 Master's of Business Administration students and 746 of their work colleagues completed the 360 degree assessment tool. The students were enrolled in a course on leadership and management. The results of the…

Integrating Prospective Longitudinal Data: Modeling Personality and Health in the Terman Life Cycle and Hawaii Longitudinal Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kern, Margaret L.; Hampson, Sarah E.; Goldberg, Lewis R.; Friedman, Howard S.

2014-01-01

The present study used a collaborative framework to integrate 2 long-term prospective studies: the Terman Life Cycle Study and the Hawaii Personality and Health Longitudinal Study. Within a 5-factor personality-trait framework, teacher assessments of child personality were rationally and empirically aligned to establish similar factor structures…

Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Rasmussen, Martin

2016-06-01

This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: •more » Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.« less

Why Assessment in Medical Education Needs a Solid Foundation in Modern Test Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schauber, Stefan K.; Hecht, Martin; Nouns, Zineb M.

2018-01-01

Despite the frequent use of state-of-the-art psychometric models in the field of medical education, there is a growing body of literature that questions their usefulness in the assessment of medical competence. Essentially, a number of authors raised doubt about the appropriateness of psychometric models as a guiding framework to secure and refine…

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

PubMed

Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

2015-09-15

Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

A new framework for evaluating the impacts of drought on net primary productivity of grassland.

PubMed

Lei, Tianjie; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Geng, Guangpo; Shao, Changliang; Zhou, Hongkui; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Leizhen

2015-12-01

This paper presented a valuable framework for evaluating the impacts of droughts (single factor) on grassland ecosystems. This framework was defined as the quantitative magnitude of drought impact that unacceptable short-term and long-term effects on ecosystems may experience relative to the reference standard. Long-term effects on ecosystems may occur relative to the reference standard. Net primary productivity (NPP) was selected as the response indicator of drought to assess the quantitative impact of drought on Inner Mongolia grassland based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and BIOME-BGC model. The framework consists of six main steps: 1) clearly defining drought scenarios, such as moderate, severe and extreme drought; 2) selecting an appropriate indicator of drought impact; 3) selecting an appropriate ecosystem model and verifying its capabilities, calibrating the bias and assessing the uncertainty; 4) assigning a level of unacceptable impact of drought on the indicator; 5) determining the response of the indicator to drought and normal weather state under global-change; and 6) investigating the unacceptable impact of drought at different spatial scales. We found NPP losses assessed using the new framework were more sensitive to drought and had higher precision than the long-term average method. Moreover, the total and average losses of NPP are different in different grassland types during the drought years from 1961-2009. NPP loss was significantly increased along a gradient of increasing drought levels. Meanwhile, NPP loss variation under the same drought level was different in different grassland types. The operational framework was particularly suited for integrative assessing the effects of different drought events and long-term droughts at multiple spatial scales, which provided essential insights for sciences and societies that must develop coping strategies for ecosystems for such events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SU-F-J-178: A Computer Simulation Model Observer for Task-Based Image Quality Assessment in Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolly, S; Mutic, S; Anastasio, M

Purpose: Traditionally, image quality in radiation therapy is assessed subjectively or by utilizing physically-based metrics. Some model observers exist for task-based medical image quality assessment, but almost exclusively for diagnostic imaging tasks. As opposed to disease diagnosis, the task for image observers in radiation therapy is to utilize the available images to design and deliver a radiation dose which maximizes patient disease control while minimizing normal tissue damage. The purpose of this study was to design and implement a new computer simulation model observer to enable task-based image quality assessment in radiation therapy. Methods: A modular computer simulation framework wasmore » developed to resemble the radiotherapy observer by simulating an end-to-end radiation therapy treatment. Given images and the ground-truth organ boundaries from a numerical phantom as inputs, the framework simulates an external beam radiation therapy treatment and quantifies patient treatment outcomes using the previously defined therapeutic operating characteristic (TOC) curve. As a preliminary demonstration, TOC curves were calculated for various CT acquisition and reconstruction parameters, with the goal of assessing and optimizing simulation CT image quality for radiation therapy. Sources of randomness and bias within the system were analyzed. Results: The relationship between CT imaging dose and patient treatment outcome was objectively quantified in terms of a singular value, the area under the TOC (AUTOC) curve. The AUTOC decreases more rapidly for low-dose imaging protocols. AUTOC variation introduced by the dose optimization algorithm was approximately 0.02%, at the 95% confidence interval. Conclusion: A model observer has been developed and implemented to assess image quality based on radiation therapy treatment efficacy. It enables objective determination of appropriate imaging parameter values (e.g. imaging dose). Framework flexibility allows for incorporation of additional modules to include any aspect of the treatment process, and therefore has great potential for both assessment and optimization within radiation therapy.« less

A multi-data stream assimilation framework for the assessment of volcanic unrest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, Patricia M.; Pettijohn, J. Cory

2016-01-01

Active volcanoes pose a constant risk to populations living in their vicinity. Significant effort has been spent to increase monitoring and data collection campaigns to mitigate potential volcano disasters. To utilize these datasets to their fullest extent, a new generation of model-data fusion techniques is required that combine multiple, disparate observations of volcanic activity with cutting-edge modeling techniques to provide efficient assessment of volcanic unrest. The purpose of this paper is to develop a data assimilation framework for volcano applications. Specifically, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is adapted to assimilate GPS and InSAR data into viscoelastic, time-forward, finite element models of an evolving magma system to provide model forecasts and error estimations. Since the goal of this investigation is to provide a methodological framework, our efforts are focused on theoretical development and synthetic tests to illustrate the effectiveness of the EnKF and its applicability in physical volcanology. The synthetic tests provide two critical results: (1) a proof of concept for using the EnKF for multi dataset assimilation in investigations of volcanic activity; and (2) the comparison of spatially limited, but temporally dense, GPS data with temporally limited InSAR observations for evaluating magma chamber dynamics during periods of volcanic unrest. Results indicate that the temporally dense information provided by GPS observations results in faster convergence and more accurate model predictions. However, most importantly, the synthetic tests illustrate that the EnKF is able to swiftly respond to data updates by changing the model forecast trajectory to match incoming observations. The synthetic results demonstrate a great potential for utilizing the EnKF model-data fusion method to assess volcanic unrest and provide model forecasts. The development of these new techniques provides: (1) a framework for future applications of rapid data assimilation and model development during volcanic crises; (2) a method for hind-casting to investigate previous volcanic eruptions, including potential eruption triggering mechanisms and precursors; and (3) an approach for optimizing survey designs for future data collection campaigns at active volcanic systems.

Assessment of gridded observations used for climate model validation in the Mediterranean region: the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Drobinski, Philippe; Borga, Marco; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Delrieu, Guy; Morin, Efrat; Tartari, Gianni; Toffolon, Roberta

2012-06-01

This letter assesses the quality of temperature and rainfall daily retrievals of the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) with respect to measurements collected locally in various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region in the framework of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX), endorsed by the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). The ECA&D, among other gridded datasets, is very often used as a reference for model calibration and evaluation. This is for instance the case in the context of the WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and its Mediterranean declination MED-CORDEX. This letter quantifies ECA&D dataset uncertainties associated with temperature and precipitation intra-seasonal variability, seasonal distribution and extremes. Our motivation is to help the interpretation of the results when validating or calibrating downscaling models by the ECA&D dataset in the context of regional climate research in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

Value to Whom? The Patient Voice in the Value Discussion.

PubMed

Perfetto, Eleanor M; Oehrlein, Elisabeth M; Boutin, Marc; Reid, Sarah; Gascho, Eric

2017-02-01

Professional societies and other organizations have recently taken a visible role trying to define treatment value via value frameworks and assessments, providing payer or provider recommendations, and potentially impacting patient access. Patient perspectives routinely differ from those of other stakeholders. Yet, it is not always apparent that patients were engaged in value framework development or assessment. To describe the development and content of the National Health Council's (NHC's) Rubric, a tool that includes criteria for evaluation of value frameworks specifically with regard to patient-centeredness and meaningful patient engagement. The NHC held a multistakeholder, invitational roundtable in Washington, DC, in 2016. Participants reviewed existing patient-engagement rubrics, discussed experiences with value frameworks, debated and thematically grouped hallmark patient-centeredness characteristics, and developed illustrative examples of the characteristics. These materials were organized into the rubric, and subsequently vetted via multistakeholder peer review. The resulting rubric describes six domains of patient-centered value frameworks: partnership, transparency, inclusiveness, diversity, outcomes, and data sources. Each domain includes specific examples illustrating how patient engagement and patient-centeredness can be operationalized in value framework processes. The NHC multistakeholder roundtable's recommendations are captured in the NHC's Rubric to assess value framework and model patient-centeredness and patient engagement. The Rubric is a tool that will be refined over time on the basis of feedback from patient, patient group, framework developer, and other stakeholder-use experiences. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Qalibra: a general model for food risk-benefit assessment that quantifies variability and uncertainty.

PubMed

Hart, Andy; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Owen, Helen; Kennedy, Marc; Zeilmaker, Marco J; de Jong, Nynke; Gunnlaugsdottir, Helga

2013-04-01

The EU project BRAFO proposed a framework for risk-benefit assessment of foods, or changes in diet, that present both potential risks and potential benefits to consumers (Hoekstra et al., 2012a). In higher tiers of the BRAFO framework, risks and benefits are integrated quantitatively to estimate net health impact measured in DALYs or QALYs (disability- or quality-adjusted life years). This paper describes a general model that was developed by a second EU project, Qalibra, to assist users in conducting these assessments. Its flexible design makes it applicable to a wide range of dietary questions involving different nutrients, contaminants and health effects. Account can be taken of variation between consumers in their diets and also other characteristics relevant to the estimation of risk and benefit, such as body weight, gender and age. Uncertainty in any input parameter may be quantified probabilistically, using probability distributions, or deterministically by repeating the assessment with alternative assumptions. Uncertainties that are not quantified should be evaluated qualitatively. Outputs produced by the model are illustrated using results from a simple assessment of fish consumption. More detailed case studies on oily fish and phytosterols are presented in companion papers. The model can be accessed as web-based software at www.qalibra.eu. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi

2018-05-01

Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.

Simultaneous Semi-Distributed Model Calibration Guided by ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modelling approaches to transfer hydrologically-relevant information from locations with streamflow measurements to locations without such measurements continues to be an active field of research for hydrologists. The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) provide a solid conceptual classification framework based on our understanding of dominant processes. A Hydrologic Landscape code (5 letter descriptor based on physical and climatic properties) describes each assessment unit area, and these units average area 60km2. The core function of these HL codes is to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without the need for streamflow time series. We present a novel approach based on the HL framework to answer the question “How can we calibrate models across separate watersheds simultaneously, guided by our understanding of dominant processes?“. We should be able to apply the same parameterizations to assessment units of common HL codes if 1) the Hydrologic Landscapes contain hydrologic information transferable between watersheds at a sub-watershed-scale and 2) we use a conceptual hydrologic model and parameters that reflect the hydrologic behavior of a watershed. In this study, This work specifically tests the ability or inability to use HL-codes to inform and share model parameters across watersheds in the Pacific Northwest. EPA’s Western Ecology Division has published and is refining a framework for defining la

Damage/fault diagnosis in an operating wind turbine under uncertainty via a vibration response Gaussian mixture random coefficient model based framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avendaño-Valencia, Luis David; Fassois, Spilios D.

2017-07-01

The study focuses on vibration response based health monitoring for an operating wind turbine, which features time-dependent dynamics under environmental and operational uncertainty. A Gaussian Mixture Model Random Coefficient (GMM-RC) model based Structural Health Monitoring framework postulated in a companion paper is adopted and assessed. The assessment is based on vibration response signals obtained from a simulated offshore 5 MW wind turbine. The non-stationarity in the vibration signals originates from the continually evolving, due to blade rotation, inertial properties, as well as the wind characteristics, while uncertainty is introduced by random variations of the wind speed within the range of 10-20 m/s. Monte Carlo simulations are performed using six distinct structural states, including the healthy state and five types of damage/fault in the tower, the blades, and the transmission, with each one of them characterized by four distinct levels. Random vibration response modeling and damage diagnosis are illustrated, along with pertinent comparisons with state-of-the-art diagnosis methods. The results demonstrate consistently good performance of the GMM-RC model based framework, offering significant performance improvements over state-of-the-art methods. Most damage types and levels are shown to be properly diagnosed using a single vibration sensor.

How to address data gaps in life cycle inventories: a case study on estimating CO2 emissions from coal-fired electricity plants on a global scale.

PubMed

Steinmann, Zoran J N; Venkatesh, Aranya; Hauck, Mara; Schipper, Aafke M; Karuppiah, Ramkumar; Laurenzi, Ian J; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2014-05-06

One of the major challenges in life cycle assessment (LCA) is the availability and quality of data used to develop models and to make appropriate recommendations. Approximations and assumptions are often made if appropriate data are not readily available. However, these proxies may introduce uncertainty into the results. A regression model framework may be employed to assess missing data in LCAs of products and processes. In this study, we develop such a regression-based framework to estimate CO2 emission factors associated with coal power plants in the absence of reported data. Our framework hypothesizes that emissions from coal power plants can be explained by plant-specific factors (predictors) that include steam pressure, total capacity, plant age, fuel type, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the resident nations of those plants. Using reported emission data for 444 plants worldwide, plant level CO2 emission factors were fitted to the selected predictors by a multiple linear regression model and a local linear regression model. The validated models were then applied to 764 coal power plants worldwide, for which no reported data were available. Cumulatively, available reported data and our predictions together account for 74% of the total world's coal-fired power generation capacity.

EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL ( ERDEM ) A PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC AND PHARMACODYNAMIC ( PBPK/PD ) MODEL FOR ASSESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK

EPA Science Inventory

The Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) is a PBPK/PD modeling system that was developed by EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). The ERDEM framework provides the flexibility either to use existing models and to build new PBPK and PBPK/PD models to address...

Development of a software framework for data assimilation and its applications for streamflow forecasting in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.; Yorozu, K.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Data assimilation methods have received increased attention to accomplish uncertainty assessment and enhancement of forecasting capability in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modeling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for sequential data assimilation, so called MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modeling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. Sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models based on MPI-OHyMoS considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for short-term streamflow forecasting of several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and remotely-sensed rainfall data such as X-band or C-band radar is estimated and mitigated in the sequential data assimilation.

Fuel Cycle Analysis Framework Base Cases for the IAEA/INPRO GAINS Collaborative Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brent Dixon

Thirteen countries participated in the Collaborative Project GAINS “Global Architecture of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems Based on Thermal and Fast Reactors Including a Closed Fuel Cycle”, which was the primary activity within the IAEA/INPRO Program Area B: “Global Vision on Sustainable Nuclear Energy” for the last three years. The overall objective of GAINS was to develop a standard framework for assessing future nuclear energy systems taking into account sustainable development, and to validate results through sample analyses. This paper details the eight scenarios that constitute the GAINS framework base cases for analysis of the transition to future innovative nuclear energymore » systems. The framework base cases provide a reference for users of the framework to start from in developing and assessing their own alternate systems. Each base case is described along with performance results against the GAINS sustainability evaluation metrics. The eight cases include four using a moderate growth projection and four using a high growth projection for global nuclear electricity generation through 2100. The cases are divided into two sets, addressing homogeneous and heterogeneous scenarios developed by GAINS to model global fuel cycle strategies. The heterogeneous world scenario considers three separate nuclear groups based on their fuel cycle strategies, with non-synergistic and synergistic cases. The framework base case analyses results show the impact of these different fuel cycle strategies while providing references for future users of the GAINS framework. A large number of scenario alterations are possible and can be used to assess different strategies, different technologies, and different assumptions about possible futures of nuclear power. Results can be compared to the framework base cases to assess where these alternate cases perform differently versus the sustainability indicators.« less

Application of dynamic traffic assignment to advanced managed lane modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

In this study, a demand estimation framework is developed for assessing the managed lane (ML) : strategies by utilizing dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) modeling, instead of the traditional : approaches that are based on the static traffic assignment...

Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karmperis, Athanasios C., E-mail: athkarmp@mail.ntua.gr; Army Corps of Engineers, Hellenic Army General Staff, Ministry of Defence; Aravossis, Konstantinos

Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decisionmore » support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.« less

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jan, Darrell L.; Davidson, Barry D.; Moore, Nicholas R.

1990-01-01

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

The geospatial modeling interface (GMI) framework for deploying and assessing environmental models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Geographical information systems (GIS) software packages have been used for close to three decades as analytical tools in environmental management for geospatial data assembly, processing, storage, and visualization of input data and model output. However, with increasing availability and use of ful...

Conceptual Framework for Trait-Based Ecological Risk Assessment for Wildlife Populations Exposed to Pesticides

EPA Science Inventory

Between screening level risk assessments and complex ecological models, a need exists for practical identification of risk based on general information about species, chemicals, and exposure scenarios. Several studies have identified demographic, biological, and toxicological fa...

Students Explaining Science--Assessment of Science Communication Competence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kulgemeyer, Christoph; Schecker, Horst

2013-01-01

Science communication competence (SCC) is an important educational goal in the school science curricula of several countries. However, there is a lack of research about the structure and the assessment of SCC. This paper specifies the theoretical framework of SCC by a competence model. We developed a qualitative assessment method for SCC that is…

Integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment through the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from relevant stressors across different species. Integration is important to provide a more complete assessment of risk, but evaluating endpoints a...

Community College Faculty Attitudes and Concerns about Student Learning Outcomes Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fontenot, Janet Smith

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify the attitudes and concerns community college faculty have about student learning outcomes assessment and to further explore the relationship between these factors and faculty levels of involvement in assessment activities. Combining the conceptual frameworks of the concerns-based adoption Model (CBAM) and…

Applying Technology to Enhance STEM Achievement for Students with Disabilities: The Blending Assessment with Instruction Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyen, Edward L.; Greer, Diana L.

2010-01-01

This article discusses the theoretical framework, instructional design, formative assessment results, capacity for national distribution, and generalization of the Blending Assessment with Instruction Program (BAIP) model to other content areas such as science. The BAIP, developed and validated at the University of Kansas, employs technology to…

Development of a Measurement Instrument to Assess Students' Electrolyte Conceptual Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lu, Shanshan; Bi, Hualin

2016-01-01

To assess students' conceptual understanding levels and diagnose alternative frameworks of the electrolyte concept, a measurement instrument was developed using the Rasch model. This paper reports the use of the measurement instrument to assess 559 students from grade 10 to grade 12 in two cities. The results provided both diagnostic and summative…

Using Model-Tracing to Conduct Performance Assessment of Students' Inquiry Skills within a Microworld

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gobert, Janice D.; Koedinger, Kenneth R.

2011-01-01

The National frameworks for science emphasize inquiry skills (NRC, 1996), however, in typical classroom practice, science learning often focuses on rote learning in part because science process skills are difficult to assess (Fadel, Honey, & Pasnick, 2007) and rote knowledge is prioritized on high-stakes tests. Short answer assessments of…

Development of solute transport models in YMPYRÄ framework to simulate solute migration in military shooting and training areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warsta, L.; Karvonen, T.

2017-12-01

There are currently 25 shooting and training areas in Finland managed by The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF), where military activities can cause contamination of open waters and groundwater reservoirs. In the YMPYRÄ project, a computer software framework is being developed that combines existing open environmental data and proprietary information collected by FDF with computational models to investigate current and prevent future environmental problems. A data centric philosophy is followed in the development of the system, i.e. the models are updated and extended to handle available data from different areas. The results generated by the models are summarized as easily understandable flow and risk maps that can be opened in GIS programs and used in environmental assessments by experts. Substances investigated with the system include explosives and metals such as lead, and both surface and groundwater dominated areas can be simulated. The YMPYRÄ framework is composed of a three dimensional soil and groundwater flow model, several solute transport models and an uncertainty assessment system. Solute transport models in the framework include particle based, stream tube and finite volume based approaches. The models can be used to simulate solute dissolution from source area, transport in the unsaturated layers to groundwater and finally migration in groundwater to water extraction wells and springs. The models can be used to simulate advection, dispersion, equilibrium adsorption on soil particles, solubility and dissolution from solute phase and dendritic solute decay chains. Correct numerical solutions were confirmed by comparing results to analytical 1D and 2D solutions and by comparing the numerical solutions to each other. The particle based and stream tube type solute transport models were useful as they could complement the traditional finite volume based approach which in certain circumstances produced numerical dispersion due to piecewise solution of the governing equations in computational grids and included computationally intensive and in some cases unstable iterative solutions. The YMPYRÄ framework is being developed by WaterHope, Gain Oy, and SITO Oy consulting companies and funded by FDF.

Assessing Team Leadership in Emergency Medicine: The Milestones and Beyond

PubMed Central

Rosenman, Elizabeth D.; Branzetti, Jeremy B.; Fernandez, Rosemarie

2016-01-01

Background Team leadership is a critical skill for emergency medicine physicians that directly affects team performance and the quality of patient care. There exists a robust body of team science research supporting team leadership conceptual models and behavioral skill sets. However, to date, this work has not been widely incorporated into health care team leadership education. Objective This narrative review has 3 aims: (1) to synthesize the team science literature and to translate important concepts and models to health care team leadership; (2) to describe how team leadership is currently represented in the health care literature and in the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Milestones for emergency medicine; and (3) to propose a novel, evidence-based framework for the assessment of team leadership in emergency medicine. Methods We conducted a narrative review of the team science and health care literature. We summarized our findings and identified a list of team leadership behaviors that were then used to create a framework for team leadership assessment. Results Current health care team leadership measurement tools do not incorporate evidence-based models of leadership concepts from other established domains. The emergency medicine milestones include several team leadership behaviors as part of a larger resident evaluation program. However, they do not offer a comprehensive or cohesive representation of the team leadership construct. Conclusions Despite the importance of team leadership to patient care, there is no standardized approach to team leadership assessment in emergency medicine. Based on the results of our review, we propose a novel team leadership assessment framework that is supported by the team science literature. PMID:27413434

Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena; Oomen, Agnes; Bos, Peter; Peijnenburg, Willie; van Tongeren, Martie; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Brunelli, Andrea; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Tran, Lang; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-10-01

Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans and the environment. In order to reduce these uncertainties, it is necessary to generate sound scientific data on hazard and exposure by means of relevant frameworks and tools. The development of such approaches to facilitate the risk assessment (RA) of MNs has become a dynamic area of research. The aim of this paper was to review and critically analyse these approaches against a set of relevant criteria. The analysis concluded that none of the reviewed frameworks were able to fulfill all evaluation criteria. Many of the existing modelling tools are designed to provide screening-level assessments rather than to support regulatory RA and risk management. Nevertheless, there is a tendency towards developing more quantitative, higher-tier models, capable of incorporating uncertainty into their analyses. There is also a trend towards developing validated experimental protocols for material identification and hazard testing, reproducible across laboratories. These tools could enable a shift from a costly case-by-case RA of MNs towards a targeted, flexible and efficient process, based on grouping and read-across strategies and compliant with the 3R (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) principles. In order to facilitate this process, it is important to transform the current efforts on developing databases and computational models into creating an integrated data and tools infrastructure to support the risk assessment and management of MNs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Team Leadership in Emergency Medicine: The Milestones and Beyond.

PubMed

Rosenman, Elizabeth D; Branzetti, Jeremy B; Fernandez, Rosemarie

2016-07-01

Team leadership is a critical skill for emergency medicine physicians that directly affects team performance and the quality of patient care. There exists a robust body of team science research supporting team leadership conceptual models and behavioral skill sets. However, to date, this work has not been widely incorporated into health care team leadership education. This narrative review has 3 aims: (1) to synthesize the team science literature and to translate important concepts and models to health care team leadership; (2) to describe how team leadership is currently represented in the health care literature and in the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Milestones for emergency medicine; and (3) to propose a novel, evidence-based framework for the assessment of team leadership in emergency medicine. We conducted a narrative review of the team science and health care literature. We summarized our findings and identified a list of team leadership behaviors that were then used to create a framework for team leadership assessment. Current health care team leadership measurement tools do not incorporate evidence-based models of leadership concepts from other established domains. The emergency medicine milestones include several team leadership behaviors as part of a larger resident evaluation program. However, they do not offer a comprehensive or cohesive representation of the team leadership construct. Despite the importance of team leadership to patient care, there is no standardized approach to team leadership assessment in emergency medicine. Based on the results of our review, we propose a novel team leadership assessment framework that is supported by the team science literature.

A Bayesian framework based on a Gaussian mixture model and radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (BayGmmKda V1.1) for spatial prediction of floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tien Bui, Dieu; Hoang, Nhat-Duc

2017-09-01

In this study, a probabilistic model, named as BayGmmKda, is proposed for flood susceptibility assessment in a study area in central Vietnam. The new model is a Bayesian framework constructed by a combination of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (RBFDA), and a geographic information system (GIS) database. In the Bayesian framework, GMM is used for modeling the data distribution of flood-influencing factors in the GIS database, whereas RBFDA is utilized to construct a latent variable that aims at enhancing the model performance. As a result, the posterior probabilistic output of the BayGmmKda model is used as flood susceptibility index. Experiment results showed that the proposed hybrid framework is superior to other benchmark models, including the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the support vector machine. To facilitate the model implementation, a software program of BayGmmKda has been developed in MATLAB. The BayGmmKda program can accurately establish a flood susceptibility map for the study region. Accordingly, local authorities can overlay this susceptibility map onto various land-use maps for the purpose of land-use planning or management.

Extended Kalman Filter framework for forecasting shoreline evolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Joseph; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2012-01-01

A shoreline change model incorporating both long- and short-term evolution is integrated into a data assimilation framework that uses sparse observations to generate an updated forecast of shoreline position and to estimate unobserved geophysical variables and model parameters. Application of the assimilation algorithm provides quantitative statistical estimates of combined model-data forecast uncertainty which is crucial for developing hazard vulnerability assessments, evaluation of prediction skill, and identifying future data collection needs. Significant attention is given to the estimation of four non-observable parameter values and separating two scales of shoreline evolution using only one observable morphological quantity (i.e. shoreline position).

EUReKA! A Conceptual Model of Emotion Understanding

PubMed Central

Castro, Vanessa L.; Cheng, Yanhua; Halberstadt, Amy G.; Grühn, Daniel

2015-01-01

The field of emotion understanding is replete with measures, yet lacks an integrated conceptual organizing structure. To identify and organize skills associated with the recognition and knowledge of emotions, and to highlight the focus of emotion understanding as localized in the self, in specific others, and in generalized others, we introduce the conceptual framework of Emotion Understanding in Recognition and Knowledge Abilities (EUReKA). We then categorize fifty-six existing methods of emotion understanding within this framework to highlight current gaps and future opportunities in assessing emotion understanding across the lifespan. We hope the EUReKA model provides a systematic and integrated framework for conceptualizing and measuring emotion understanding for future research. PMID:27594904

How Adverse Outcome Pathways Can Aid the Development and Use of Computational Prediction Models for Regulatory Toxicology

PubMed Central

Aladjov, Hristo; Ankley, Gerald; Byrne, Hugh J.; de Knecht, Joop; Heinzle, Elmar; Klambauer, Günter; Landesmann, Brigitte; Luijten, Mirjam; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Meek, M. E. (Bette); Paini, Alicia; Perkins, Edward; Sobanski, Tomasz; Villeneuve, Dan; Waters, Katrina M.; Whelan, Maurice

2017-01-01

Efforts are underway to transform regulatory toxicology and chemical safety assessment from a largely empirical science based on direct observation of apical toxicity outcomes in whole organism toxicity tests to a predictive one in which outcomes and risk are inferred from accumulated mechanistic understanding. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework provides a systematic approach for organizing knowledge that may support such inference. Likewise, computational models of biological systems at various scales provide another means and platform to integrate current biological understanding to facilitate inference and extrapolation. We argue that the systematic organization of knowledge into AOP frameworks can inform and help direct the design and development of computational prediction models that can further enhance the utility of mechanistic and in silico data for chemical safety assessment. This concept was explored as part of a workshop on AOP-Informed Predictive Modeling Approaches for Regulatory Toxicology held September 24–25, 2015. Examples of AOP-informed model development and its application to the assessment of chemicals for skin sensitization and multiple modes of endocrine disruption are provided. The role of problem formulation, not only as a critical phase of risk assessment, but also as guide for both AOP and complementary model development is described. Finally, a proposal for actively engaging the modeling community in AOP-informed computational model development is made. The contents serve as a vision for how AOPs can be leveraged to facilitate development of computational prediction models needed to support the next generation of chemical safety assessment. PMID:27994170

A theoretical framework to describe communication processes during medical disability assessment interviews

PubMed Central

van Rijssen, H Jolanda; Schellart, Antonius JM; Anema, Johannes R; van der Beek, Allard J

2009-01-01

Background Research in different fields of medicine suggests that communication is important in physician-patient encounters and influences satisfaction with these encounters. It is argued that this also applies to the non-curative tasks that physicians perform, such as sickness certification and medical disability assessments. However, there is no conceptualised theoretical framework that can be used to describe intentions with regard to communication behaviour, communication behaviour itself, and satisfaction with communication behaviour in a medical disability assessment context. Objective The objective of this paper is to describe the conceptualisation of a model for the communication behaviour of physicians performing medical disability assessments in a social insurance context and of their claimants, in face-to-face encounters during medical disability assessment interviews and the preparation thereof. Conceptualisation The behavioural model, based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), is conceptualised for the communication behaviour of social insurance physicians and claimants separately, but also combined during the assessment interview. Other important concepts in the model are the evaluation of communication behaviour (satisfaction), intentions, attitudes, skills, and barriers for communication. Conclusion The conceptualisation of the TPB-based behavioural model will help to provide insight into the communication behaviour of social insurance physicians and claimants during disability assessment interviews. After empirical testing of the relationships in the model, it can be used in other studies to obtain more insight into communication behaviour in non-curative medicine, and it could help social insurance physicians to adapt their communication behaviour to their task when performing disability assessments. PMID:19807905

The use of mode of action information in risk assessment: quantitative key events/dose-response framework for modeling the dose-response for key events.

PubMed

Simon, Ted W; Simons, S Stoney; Preston, R Julian; Boobis, Alan R; Cohen, Samuel M; Doerrer, Nancy G; Fenner-Crisp, Penelope A; McMullin, Tami S; McQueen, Charlene A; Rowlands, J Craig

2014-08-01

The HESI RISK21 project formed the Dose-Response/Mode-of-Action Subteam to develop strategies for using all available data (in vitro, in vivo, and in silico) to advance the next-generation of chemical risk assessments. A goal of the Subteam is to enhance the existing Mode of Action/Human Relevance Framework and Key Events/Dose Response Framework (KEDRF) to make the best use of quantitative dose-response and timing information for Key Events (KEs). The resulting Quantitative Key Events/Dose-Response Framework (Q-KEDRF) provides a structured quantitative approach for systematic examination of the dose-response and timing of KEs resulting from a dose of a bioactive agent that causes a potential adverse outcome. Two concepts are described as aids to increasing the understanding of mode of action-Associative Events and Modulating Factors. These concepts are illustrated in two case studies; 1) cholinesterase inhibition by the pesticide chlorpyrifos, which illustrates the necessity of considering quantitative dose-response information when assessing the effect of a Modulating Factor, that is, enzyme polymorphisms in humans, and 2) estrogen-induced uterotrophic responses in rodents, which demonstrate how quantitative dose-response modeling for KE, the understanding of temporal relationships between KEs and a counterfactual examination of hypothesized KEs can determine whether they are Associative Events or true KEs.

A Five-Factor Model framework for understanding childhood personality disorder antecedents.

PubMed

De Clercq, Barbara; De Fruyt, Filip

2012-12-01

The present contribution reviews evidence that supports the relevance of childhood antecedents of personality disorders, and advocates that the validity of a Five-Factor Model framework for describing general trait differences in childhood can be extended towards the field of developmental personality difficulties. In addition, we suggest that several traditional childhood Axis I conditions include a substantial trait component that may be responsible for the recurring finding that childhood Axis I disorders are predictive for adult Axis II disorders. Given the valuable information provided by a trait assessment, we further propose to integrate dimensional personality and personality pathology measures as standard tools in mental health assessments at a young age. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Personality © 2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Model-Based Probabilistic Inversion Framework for Wire Fault Detection Using TDR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuet, Stefan R.; Timucin, Dogan A.; Wheeler, Kevin R.

2010-01-01

Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is one of the standard methods for diagnosing faults in electrical wiring and interconnect systems, with a long-standing history focused mainly on hardware development of both high-fidelity systems for laboratory use and portable hand-held devices for field deployment. While these devices can easily assess distance to hard faults such as sustained opens or shorts, their ability to assess subtle but important degradation such as chafing remains an open question. This paper presents a unified framework for TDR-based chafing fault detection in lossy coaxial cables by combining an S-parameter based forward modeling approach with a probabilistic (Bayesian) inference algorithm. Results are presented for the estimation of nominal and faulty cable parameters from laboratory data.

Learning, Behaviour and Reaction Framework: A Model for Training Raters to Improve Assessment Quality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Chung-Yang; Chang, Huiju; Hsu, Wen-Chin; Sheen, Gwo-Ji

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a training model for raters, with the goal to improve the intra- and inter-consistency of evaluation quality for higher education curricula. The model, termed the learning, behaviour and reaction (LBR) circular training model, is an interdisciplinary application from the business and organisational training domain. The…

Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.

2001-11-09

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of anmore » uncertainty analysis framework.« less

A framework for analyzing the economic tradeoffs between urban commerce and security against terrorism.

PubMed

Rose, Adam; Avetisyan, Misak; Chatterjee, Samrat

2014-08-01

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

DOE PAGES

Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

2015-05-25

The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However,more » the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.« less

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation

PubMed Central

Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B.; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

2017-01-01

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications. PMID:28545077

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation.

PubMed

Andreadis, Konstantinos M; Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

2017-01-01

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications.

Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Technical Exchange Meeting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis

2013-09-01

During FY13, the INL developed an advanced SMR PRA framework which has been described in the report Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Technical Framework Specification, INL/EXT-13-28974 (April 2013). In this framework, the various areas are considered: Probabilistic models to provide information specific to advanced SMRs Representation of specific SMR design issues such as having co-located modules and passive safety features Use of modern open-source and readily available analysis methods Internal and external events resulting in impacts to safety All-hazards considerations Methods to support the identification of design vulnerabilities Mechanistic and probabilistic data needs to support modelingmore » and tools In order to describe this framework more fully and obtain feedback on the proposed approaches, the INL hosted a technical exchange meeting during August 2013. This report describes the outcomes of that meeting.« less

Biodiversity impact assessment (BIA+) - methodological framework for screening biodiversity.

PubMed

Winter, Lisa; Pflugmacher, Stephan; Berger, Markus; Finkbeiner, Matthias

2018-03-01

For the past 20 years, the life cycle assessment (LCA) community has sought to integrate impacts on biodiversity into the LCA framework. However, existing impact assessment methods still fail to do so comprehensively because they quantify only a few impacts related to specific species and regions. This paper proposes a methodological framework that will allow LCA practitioners to assess currently missing impacts on biodiversity on a global scale. Building on existing models that seek to quantify the impacts of human activities on biodiversity, the herein proposed methodological framework consists of 2 components: a habitat factor for 14 major habitat types and the impact on the biodiversity status in those major habitat types. The habitat factor is calculated by means of indicators that characterize each habitat. The biodiversity status depends on parameters from impact categories. The impact functions, relating these different parameters to a given response in the biodiversity status, rely on expert judgments. To ensure the applicability for LCA practitioners, the components of the framework can be regionalized on a country scale for which LCA inventory data is more readily available. The weighting factors for the 14 major habitat types range from 0.63 to 1.82. By means of area weighting of the major habitat types in a country, country-specific weighting factors are calculated. In order to demonstrate the main part of the framework, examples of impact functions are given for the categories "freshwater eutrophication" and "freshwater ecotoxicity" in 1 major habitat type. The results confirm suitability of the methodological framework. The major advantages are the framework's user-friendliness, given that data can be used from LCA databases directly, and the complete inclusion of all levels of biodiversity (genetic, species, and ecosystem). It is applicable for the whole world and a wide range of impact categories. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:282-297. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

A framework for treating DSM-5 alternative model for personality disorder features.

PubMed

Hopwood, Christopher J

2018-04-15

Despite its demonstrated empirical superiority over the DSM-5 Section 2 categorical model of personality disorders for organizing the features of personality pathology, limitations remain with regard to the translation of the DSM-5 Section 3 alternative model of personality disorders (AMPD) to clinical practice. The goal of this paper is to outline a general and preliminary framework for approaching treatment from the perspective of the AMPD. Specific techniques are discussed for the assessment and treatment of both Criterion A personality dysfunction and Criterion B maladaptive traits. A concise and step-by-step model is presented for clinical decision making with the AMPD, in the hopes of offering clinicians a framework for treating personality pathology and promoting further research on the clinical utility of the AMPD. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A probabilistic framework to infer brain functional connectivity from anatomical connections.

PubMed

Deligianni, Fani; Varoquaux, Gael; Thirion, Bertrand; Robinson, Emma; Sharp, David J; Edwards, A David; Rueckert, Daniel

2011-01-01

We present a novel probabilistic framework to learn across several subjects a mapping from brain anatomical connectivity to functional connectivity, i.e. the covariance structure of brain activity. This prediction problem must be formulated as a structured-output learning task, as the predicted parameters are strongly correlated. We introduce a model selection framework based on cross-validation with a parametrization-independent loss function suitable to the manifold of covariance matrices. Our model is based on constraining the conditional independence structure of functional activity by the anatomical connectivity. Subsequently, we learn a linear predictor of a stationary multivariate autoregressive model. This natural parameterization of functional connectivity also enforces the positive-definiteness of the predicted covariance and thus matches the structure of the output space. Our results show that functional connectivity can be explained by anatomical connectivity on a rigorous statistical basis, and that a proper model of functional connectivity is essential to assess this link.

Frequency Spectrum Neutrality Tests: One for All and All for One

PubMed Central

Achaz, Guillaume

2009-01-01

Neutrality tests based on the frequency spectrum (e.g., Tajima's D or Fu and Li's F) are commonly used by population geneticists as routine tests to assess the goodness-of-fit of the standard neutral model on their data sets. Here, I show that these neutrality tests are specific instances of a general model that encompasses them all. I illustrate how this general framework can be taken advantage of to devise new more powerful tests that better detect deviations from the standard model. Finally, I exemplify the usefulness of the framework on SNP data by showing how it supports the selection hypothesis in the lactase human gene by overcoming the ascertainment bias. The framework presented here paves the way for constructing novel tests optimized for specific violations of the standard model that ultimately will help to unravel scenarios of evolution. PMID:19546320

Supporting Intrapersonal Development in Substance Use Disorder Programs: A Conceptual Framework for Client Assessment.

PubMed

Turpin, Aaron; Shier, Micheal L

2017-01-01

Improvements to intrapersonal development of clients involved with substance use disorder treatment programs has widely been recognized as contributing to the intended goal of reducing substance misuse behaviors. This study sought to identify a broad framework of primary outcomes related to the intrapersonal development of clients in treatment for substance misuse. Using qualitative research methods, individual interviews were conducted with program participants (n = 41) at three treatment programs to identify the ways in which respondents experienced intrapersonal development through participation in treatment. The findings support the development of a conceptual model that captures the importance and manifestation of achieving improvements in the following outcomes: self-awareness, coping ability, self-worth, outlook, and self-determination. The findings provide a conceptual framework for client assessment that captures a broad range of the important intrapersonal development factors utilized as indicators for client development and recovery that should be measured in tandem during assessment.

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Glotter, Michael; Jhunjhnuwala, Kanika; Best, Neil; Wilde, Michael; Foster, Ian

2014-01-01

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

Automatising the analysis of stochastic biochemical time-series

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Mathematical and computational modelling of biochemical systems has seen a lot of effort devoted to the definition and implementation of high-performance mechanistic simulation frameworks. Within these frameworks it is possible to analyse complex models under a variety of configurations, eventually selecting the best setting of, e.g., parameters for a target system. Motivation This operational pipeline relies on the ability to interpret the predictions of a model, often represented as simulation time-series. Thus, an efficient data analysis pipeline is crucial to automatise time-series analyses, bearing in mind that errors in this phase might mislead the modeller's conclusions. Results For this reason we have developed an intuitive framework-independent Python tool to automate analyses common to a variety of modelling approaches. These include assessment of useful non-trivial statistics for simulation ensembles, e.g., estimation of master equations. Intuitive and domain-independent batch scripts will allow the researcher to automatically prepare reports, thus speeding up the usual model-definition, testing and refinement pipeline. PMID:26051821

Assessment of a Business-to-Consumer (B2C) model for Telemonitoring patients with Chronic Heart Failure (CHF).

PubMed

Grustam, Andrija S; Vrijhoef, Hubertus J M; Koymans, Ron; Hukal, Philipp; Severens, Johan L

2017-10-11

The purpose of this study is to assess the Business-to-Consumer (B2C) model for telemonitoring patients with Chronic Heart Failure (CHF) by analysing the value it creates, both for organizations or ventures that provide telemonitoring services based on it, and for society. The business model assessment was based on the following categories: caveats, venture type, six-factor alignment, strategic market assessment, financial viability, valuation analysis, sustainability, societal impact, and technology assessment. The venture valuation was performed for three jurisdictions (countries) - Singapore, the Netherlands and the United States - in order to show the opportunities in a small, medium-sized, and large country (i.e. population). The business model assessment revealed that B2C telemonitoring is viable and profitable in the Innovating in Healthcare Framework. Analysis of the ecosystem revealed an average-to-excellent fit with the six factors. The structure and financing fit was average, public policy and technology alignment was good, while consumer alignment and accountability fit was deemed excellent. The financial prognosis revealed that the venture is viable and profitable in Singapore and the Netherlands but not in the United States due to relatively high salary inputs. The B2C model in telemonitoring CHF potentially creates value for patients, shareholders of the service provider, and society. However, the validity of the results could be improved, for instance by using a peer-reviewed framework, a systematic literature search, case-based cost/efficiency inputs, and varied scenario inputs.

FACTORS INFLUENCING TOTAL DIETARY EXPOSURE OF YOUNG CHILDREN

EPA Science Inventory

A deterministic model was developed to identify critical input parameters to assess dietary intake of young children. The model was used as a framework for understanding important factors in data collection and analysis. Factors incorporated included transfer efficiencies of pest...

A PROBABILISTIC MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR PREDICTING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO BENZENE

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is modifying their probabilistic Stochastic Human Exposure Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model to assess aggregate exposures to air toxics. Air toxics include urban Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPS) such as benzene from mobile sources, part...

Model Wind Turbine Design in a Project-Based Middle School Engineering Curriculum Built on State Frameworks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cogger, Steven D.; Miley, Daniel H.

2012-01-01

This paper proposes that project-based active learning is a key part of engineering education at the middle school level. One project from a comprehensive middle school engineering curriculum developed by the authors is described to show how active learning and state frameworks can coexist. The theoretical basis for learning and assessment in a…

Constructive Alignment and the Research Skills Development Framework: Using Theory to Practically Align Graduate Attributes, Learning Experiences, and Assessment Tasks in Undergraduate Midwifery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pretorius, Lynette; Bailey, Carolyn; Miles, Maureen

2013-01-01

Midwifery educators have to provide students with stimulating curricula that teach academic and vocational content, as well as transferable skills. The Research Skills Development (RSD) framework provides a conceptual model that allows educators to explicitly scaffold the development of their students' research skills. This paper aims to…

Evidencing Learning Outcomes: A Multi-Level, Multi-Dimensional Course Alignment Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sridharan, Bhavani; Leitch, Shona; Watty, Kim

2015-01-01

This conceptual framework proposes a multi-level, multi-dimensional course alignment model to implement a contextualised constructive alignment of rubric design that authentically evidences and assesses learning outcomes. By embedding quality control mechanisms at each level for each dimension, this model facilitates the development of an aligned…

COMPARING THE UTILITY OF MULTIMEDIA MODELS FOR HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE ANALYSIS: TWO CASES

EPA Science Inventory

A number of models are available for exposure assessment; however, few are used as tools for both human and ecosystem risks. This discussion will consider two modeling frameworks that have recently been used to support human and ecological decision making. The study will compare ...

Using frameworks to diagram value in complex policy and environmental interventions to prevent childhood obesity.

PubMed

Swank, Melissa Farrell; Brennan, Laura K; Gentry, Daniel; Kemner, Allison L

2015-01-01

To date, few tools assist policy makers and practitioners in understanding and conveying the implementation costs, potential impacts, and value of policy and environmental changes to address healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. For the Evaluation of Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities (HKHC), evaluators considered inputs (resources and investments) that generate costs and savings as well as benefits and harms related to social, economic, environmental, and health-related outcomes in their assessment of 49 HKHC community partnerships funded from 2009 to 2014. Using data collected through individual and group interviews and an online performance monitoring system, evaluators created a socioecological framework to assess investments, resources, costs, savings, benefits, and harms at the individual, organizational, community, and societal levels. Evaluators customized frameworks for 6 focal strategies: active transportation, parks and play spaces, child care physical activity standards, corner stores, farmers' markets, and child care nutrition standards. To illustrate the Value Frameworks, this brief highlights the 38 HKHC communities implementing at least 1 active transportation strategy. Evaluators populated this conceptual Value Framework with themes from the strategy-specific inputs and outputs. The range of factors corresponding to the implementation and impact of the HKHC community partnerships are highlighted along with the inputs and outputs. The Value Frameworks helped evaluators identify gaps in current analysis models (ie, benefit-cost analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis) as well as paint a more complete picture of value for potential obesity prevention strategies. These frameworks provide a comprehensive understanding of investments needed, proposed costs and savings, and potential benefits and harms associated with economic, social, environmental, and health outcomes. This framing also allowed evaluators to demonstrate the interdependence of each socioecological level on the others in these multicomponent interventions. This model can be used by practitioners and community leaders to assess realistic and sustainable strategies to combat childhood obesity.

Episodic Laryngeal Breathing Disorders: Literature Review and Proposal of Preliminary Theoretical Framework.

PubMed

Shembel, Adrianna C; Sandage, Mary J; Verdolini Abbott, Katherine

2017-01-01

The purposes of this literature review were (1) to identify and assess frameworks for clinical characterization of episodic laryngeal breathing disorders (ELBD) and their subtypes, (2) to integrate concepts from these frameworks into a novel theoretical paradigm, and (3) to provide a preliminary algorithm to classify clinical features of ELBD for future study of its clinical manifestations and underlying pathophysiological mechanisms. This is a literature review. Peer-reviewed literature from 1983 to 2015 pertaining to models for ELBD was searched using Pubmed, Ovid, Proquest, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Google Scholar. Theoretical models for ELBD were identified, evaluated, and integrated into a novel comprehensive framework. Consensus across three salient models provided a working definition and inclusionary criteria for ELBD within the new framework. Inconsistencies and discrepancies within the models provided an analytic platform for future research. Comparison among three conceptual models-(1) Irritable larynx syndrome, (2) Dichotomous triggers, and (3) Periodic occurrence of laryngeal obstruction-showed that the models uniformly consider ELBD to involve episodic laryngeal obstruction causing dyspnea. The models differed in their description of source of dyspnea, in their inclusion of corollary behaviors, in their inclusion of other laryngeal-based behaviors (eg, cough), and types of triggers. The proposed integrated theoretical framework for ELBD provides a preliminary systematic platform for the identification of key clinical feature patterns indicative of ELBD and associated clinical subgroups. This algorithmic paradigm should evolve with better understanding of this spectrum of disorders and its underlying pathophysiological mechanisms. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal healthcare decision making under multiple mathematical models: application in prostate cancer screening.

PubMed

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Silberholz, John; Trikalinos, Thomas

2018-03-01

Important decisions related to human health, such as screening strategies for cancer, need to be made without a satisfactory understanding of the underlying biological and other processes. Rather, they are often informed by mathematical models that approximate reality. Often multiple models have been made to study the same phenomenon, which may lead to conflicting decisions. It is natural to seek a decision making process that identifies decisions that all models find to be effective, and we propose such a framework in this work. We apply the framework in prostate cancer screening to identify prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based strategies that perform well under all considered models. We use heuristic search to identify strategies that trade off between optimizing the average across all models' assessments and being "conservative" by optimizing the most pessimistic model assessment. We identified three recently published mathematical models that can estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of PSA-based screening strategies and identified 64 strategies that trade off between maximizing the average and the most pessimistic model assessments. All prescribe PSA thresholds that increase with age, and 57 involve biennial screening. Strategies with higher assessments with the pessimistic model start screening later, stop screening earlier, and use higher PSA thresholds at earlier ages. The 64 strategies outperform 22 previously published expert-generated strategies. The 41 most "conservative" ones remained better than no screening with all models in extensive sensitivity analyses. We augment current comparative modeling approaches by identifying strategies that perform well under all models, for various degrees of decision makers' conservativeness.

Using the Context, Input, Process, and Product Evaluation Model (CIPP) as a Comprehensive Framework to Guide the Planning, Implementation, and Assessment of Service-Learning Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guili; Zeller, Nancy; Griffith, Robin; Metcalf, Debbie; Williams, Jennifer; Shea, Christine; Misulis, Katherine

2011-01-01

Planning, implementing, and assessing a service-learning project can be a complex task because service-learning projects often involve multiple constituencies and aim to meet both the needs of service providers and community partners. In this article, Stufflebeam's Context, Input, Process, and Product (CIPP) evaluation model is recommended as a…

Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

2017-04-01

Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the regional flood risk can be expressed in terms of expected annual damage and damages associated with a low probability of occurrence. We consider building protection measures explicitly as part of the consequence analysis of flood risk whereas spatial planning measures are already considered as explicit scenarios in the course of land-use change modelling.

Design and Application of an Ontology for Component-Based Modeling of Water Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elag, M.; Goodall, J. L.

2012-12-01

Many Earth system modeling frameworks have adopted an approach of componentizing models so that a large model can be assembled by linking a set of smaller model components. These model components can then be more easily reused, extended, and maintained by a large group of model developers and end users. While there has been a notable increase in component-based model frameworks in the Earth sciences in recent years, there has been less work on creating framework-agnostic metadata and ontologies for model components. Well defined model component metadata is needed, however, to facilitate sharing, reuse, and interoperability both within and across Earth system modeling frameworks. To address this need, we have designed an ontology for the water resources community named the Water Resources Component (WRC) ontology in order to advance the application of component-based modeling frameworks across water related disciplines. Here we present the design of the WRC ontology and demonstrate its application for integration of model components used in watershed management. First we show how the watershed modeling system Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be decomposed into a set of hydrological and ecological components that adopt the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI) standard. Then we show how the components can be used to estimate nitrogen losses from land to surface water for the Baltimore Ecosystem study area. Results of this work are (i) a demonstration of how the WRC ontology advances the conceptual integration between components of water related disciplines by handling the semantic and syntactic heterogeneity present when describing components from different disciplines and (ii) an investigation of a methodology by which large models can be decomposed into a set of model components that can be well described by populating metadata according to the WRC ontology.

Linking rainfall-induced landslides with debris flows runout patterns towards catchment scale hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Linfeng; Lehmann, Peter; McArdell, Brian; Or, Dani

2017-03-01

Debris flows and landslides induced by heavy rainfall represent an ubiquitous and destructive natural hazard in steep mountainous regions. For debris flows initiated by shallow landslides, the prediction of the resulting pathways and associated hazard is often hindered by uncertainty in determining initiation locations, volumes and mechanical state of the mobilized debris (and by model parameterization). We propose a framework for linking a simplified physically-based debris flow runout model with a novel Landslide Hydro-mechanical Triggering (LHT) model to obtain a coupled landslide-debris flow susceptibility and hazard assessment. We first compared the simplified debris flow model of Perla (1980) with a state-of-the art continuum-based model (RAMMS) and with an empirical model of Rickenmann (1999) at the catchment scale. The results indicate that predicted runout distances by the Perla model are in reasonable agreement with inventory measurements and with the other models. Predictions of localized shallow landslides by LHT model provides information on water content of released mass. To incorporate effects of water content and flow viscosity as provided by LHT on debris flow runout, we adapted the Perla model. The proposed integral link between landslide triggering susceptibility quantified by LHT and subsequent debris flow runout hazard calculation using the adapted Perla model provides a spatially and temporally resolved framework for real-time hazard assessment at the catchment scale or along critical infrastructure (roads, railroad lines).

A Comparison of Career-Related Assessment Tools/Models. Final [Report].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

WestEd, San Francisco, CA.

This document contains charts that evaluate career related assessment items. Chart categories include: Purpose/Current Uses/Format; Intended Population; Oregon Career Related Learning Standards Addressed; Relationship to the Standards; Relationship to Endorsement Area Frameworks; Evidence of Validity; Evidence of Reliability; Evidence of Fairness…

Recommendation for Land Use Impact Assessment: First Steps into Framework, Theory, and Implementation

EPA Science Inventory

Although early Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology researchers focused on the modeling of impacts from chemical emissions, it has become obvious that resource depletion categories such as land use, water use, and fossil fuel depletion require additional attention to appropria...

Evidence-Centered Design: Recommendations for Implementation and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hendrickson, Amy; Ewing, Maureen; Kaliski, Pamela; Huff, Kristen

2013-01-01

Evidence-centered design (ECD) is an orientation towards assessment development. It differs from conventional practice in several ways and consists of multiple activities. Each of these activities results in a set of useful documentation: domain analysis, domain modeling, construction of the assessment framework, and assessment…

The CF-CARES primary palliative care model: A CF-specific structured assessment of symptoms, distress, and coping.

PubMed

Friedman, Deborah; Linnemann, Rachel W; Altstein, Lily L; Islam, Suhayla; Bach, Kieu-Tram; Lamb, Chelsea; Volpe, John; Doolittle, Caitlin; St John, Anita; O'Malley, Patricia J; Sawicki, Gregory S; Georgiopoulos, Anna M; Yonker, Lael M; Moskowitz, Samuel M

2018-01-01

Current palliative care tools do not address distressing chronic symptoms that are most relevant to cystic fibrosis. A CF-specific structured assessment based on a primary palliative care framework was administered to 41 adolescents and adults with CF. Descriptive and correlational analyses were conducted. Patients reported numerous physical and psychological symptoms (mean of 10 per patient), with psychological symptoms rated as more distressing. Anxiety (34%) and depression (44%) were prevalent and correlated with distress attributable to physical symptoms and difficulty with CF self-management, but did not correlate with disease severity. Individuals with CF, regardless of disease severity, face challenges managing symptom burden. Frequently reported symptoms are not consistently associated with distress, suggesting the importance of individualized evaluation. The CF-CARES (Coping, goal Assessment, and Relief from Evolving CF Symptoms) primary palliative care assessment model provides a framework for patients experiencing chronic symptoms to explore interventional options with their clinicians. Copyright © 2017 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Minority Report for Social Work? The Predictive Risk Model (PRM) and the Tuituia Assessment Framework in addressing the needs of New Zealand's Vulnerable Children

PubMed Central

Oak, Eileen

2016-01-01

This article examines the viability of the Risk Predictor Model (RPM) and its counterpart the actuarial risk assessment (ARA) tool in the form of the Tuituia Assessment Framework to address child vulnerability in New Zealand. In doing so, it suggests that these types of risk-assessment tools fail to address issues of contingency and complexity at the heart of the relationship-based nature of social work practice. Such developments have considerable implications for the capacity to enhance critical reflexive practice skills, whilst the introduction of these risk tools is occurring at a time when the reflexive space is being eroded as a result of the increased regulation of practice and supervision. It is further asserted that the primary aim of such instruments is not so much to detect risk, but rather to foster professional conformity with these managerialist risk-management systems so prevalent in contemporary Western societies. PMID:27559223

A Source-Term Based Boundary Layer Bleed/Effusion Model for Passive Shock Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baurle, Robert A.; Norris, Andrew T.

2011-01-01

A modeling framework for boundary layer effusion has been developed based on the use of source (or sink) terms instead of the usual practice of specifying bleed directly as a boundary condition. This framework allows the surface boundary condition (i.e. isothermal wall, adiabatic wall, slip wall, etc.) to remain unaltered in the presence of bleed. This approach also lends itself to easily permit the addition of empirical models for second order effects that are not easily accounted for by simply defining effective transpiration values. Two effusion models formulated for supersonic flows have been implemented into this framework; the Doerffer/Bohning law and the Slater formulation. These models were applied to unit problems that contain key aspects of the flow physics applicable to bleed systems designed for hypersonic air-breathing propulsion systems. The ability of each model to predict bulk bleed properties was assessed, as well as the response of the boundary layer as it passes through and downstream of a porous bleed system. The model assessment was performed with and without the presence of shock waves. Three-dimensional CFD simulations that included the geometric details of the porous plate bleed systems were also carried out to supplement the experimental data, and provide additional insights into the bleed flow physics. Overall, both bleed formulations fared well for the tests performed in this study. However, the sample of test problems considered in this effort was not large enough to permit a comprehensive validation of the models.

Developing an Integrated Model Framework for the Assessment of Sustainable Agricultural Residue Removal Limits for Bioenergy Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David Muth, Jr.; Jared Abodeely; Richard Nelson

Agricultural residues have significant potential as a feedstock for bioenergy production, but removing these residues can have negative impacts on soil health. Models and datasets that can support decisions about sustainable agricultural residue removal are available; however, no tools currently exist capable of simultaneously addressing all environmental factors that can limit availability of residue. The VE-Suite model integration framework has been used to couple a set of environmental process models to support agricultural residue removal decisions. The RUSLE2, WEPS, and Soil Conditioning Index models have been integrated. A disparate set of databases providing the soils, climate, and management practice datamore » required to run these models have also been integrated. The integrated system has been demonstrated for two example cases. First, an assessment using high spatial fidelity crop yield data has been run for a single farm. This analysis shows the significant variance in sustainably accessible residue across a single farm and crop year. A second example is an aggregate assessment of agricultural residues available in the state of Iowa. This implementation of the integrated systems model demonstrates the capability to run a vast range of scenarios required to represent a large geographic region.« less

Assessing biocomputational modelling in transforming clinical guidelines for osteoporosis management.

PubMed

Thiel, Rainer; Viceconti, Marco; Stroetmann, Karl

2011-01-01

Biocomputational modelling as developed by the European Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) Initiative is the area of ICT most likely to revolutionise in the longer term the practice of medicine. Using the example of osteoporosis management, a socio-economic assessment framework is presented that captures how the transformation of clinical guidelines through VPH models can be evaluated. Applied to the Osteoporotic Virtual Physiological Human Project, a consequent benefit-cost analysis delivers promising results, both methodologically and substantially.

Modeling Composite Assessment Data Using Item Response Theory

PubMed Central

Ueckert, Sebastian

2018-01-01

Composite assessments aim to combine different aspects of a disease in a single score and are utilized in a variety of therapeutic areas. The data arising from these evaluations are inherently discrete with distinct statistical properties. This tutorial presents the framework of the item response theory (IRT) for the analysis of this data type in a pharmacometric context. The article considers both conceptual (terms and assumptions) and practical questions (modeling software, data requirements, and model building). PMID:29493119

Highlighting differences between conditional and unconditional quantile regression approaches through an application to assess medication adherence.

PubMed

Borah, Bijan J; Basu, Anirban

2013-09-01

The quantile regression (QR) framework provides a pragmatic approach in understanding the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of an outcome. However, the QR framework that has pervaded the applied economics literature is based on the conditional quantile regression method. It is used to assess the impact of a covariate on a quantile of the outcome conditional on specific values of other covariates. In most cases, conditional quantile regression may generate results that are often not generalizable or interpretable in a policy or population context. In contrast, the unconditional quantile regression method provides more interpretable results as it marginalizes the effect over the distributions of other covariates in the model. In this paper, the differences between these two regression frameworks are highlighted, both conceptually and econometrically. Additionally, using real-world claims data from a large US health insurer, alternative QR frameworks are implemented to assess the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of medication adherence among elderly patients with Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Groundwater modelling as a tool for the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) application: The Llobregat case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vázquez-Suñé, E.; Abarca, E.; Carrera, J.; Capino, B.; Gámez, D.; Pool, M.; Simó, T.; Batlle, F.; Niñerola, J. M.; Ibáñez, X.

The European Water Framework Directive establishes the basis for Community action in the field of water policy. Water authorities in Catalonia, together with users are designing a management program to improve groundwater status and to assess the impact of infrastructures and city-planning activities on the aquifers and their associated natural systems. The objective is to describe the role of groundwater modelling in addressing the issues raised by the Water Framework Directive, and its application to the Llobregat Delta, Barcelona, Spain. In this case modelling was used to address Water Framework Directive in the following: (1) Characterisation of aquifers and the status of groundwater by integration of existing knowledge and new hydrogeological information. Inverse modelling allowed us to reach an accurate description of the paths and mechanisms for the evolution of seawater intrusion. (2) Quantification of groundwater budget (mass balance). This is especially relevant for those terms that are difficult to asses, such as recharge from river infiltration during floods, which we have found to be very important. (3) Evaluation of groundwater-related environmental needs in aquatic ecosystems. The model allows quantifying groundwater input under natural conditions, which can be used as a reference level for stressed conditions. (4) Evaluation of possible impacts of territory planning (Llobregat river course modification, new railway tunnels, airport and docks enlargement, etc.). (5) Definition of management areas. (6) The assessment of possible future scenarios combined with optimization processes to quantify sustainable pumping rates and design measures to control seawater intrusion. The resulting model has been coupled to a user-friendly interface to allow water managers to design and address corrective measures in an agile and effective way.

Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation, and Distribution (FUND)

EPA Science Inventory

FUND is an Integrated Assessment model that links socioeconomic, technology, and emission scenarios with atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, sea level rise, and the resulting economic impacts. The model runs in time-steps of one year from 1950 to 2300, and distinguishes 16 m...

Modelling Framework and Assistive Device for Peripheral Intravenous Injections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kam, Kin F.; Robinson, Martin P.; Gilbert, Mathew A.; Pelah, Adar

2016-02-01

Intravenous access for blood sampling or drug administration that requires peripheral venepuncture is perhaps the most common invasive procedure practiced in hospitals, clinics and general practice surgeries.We describe an idealised mathematical framework for modelling the dynamics of the peripheral venepuncture process. Basic assumptions of the model are confirmed through motion analysis of needle trajectories during venepuncture, taken from video recordings of a skilled practitioner injecting into a practice kit. The framework is also applied to the design and construction of a proposed device for accurate needle guidance during venepuncture administration, assessed as consistent and repeatable in application and does not lead to over puncture. The study provides insights into the ubiquitous peripheral venepuncture process and may contribute to applications in training and in the design of new devices, including for use in robotic automation.

Tsunami evacuation analysis, modelling and planning: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Iñigo; Abad Herrero, Sheila; González Rodriguez, Mauricio; Larreynaga, Jeniffer; Gavidia, Francisco; Quetzalcoalt Gutiérrez, Omar; Álvarez-Gómez, Jose Antonio; Medina Santamaría, Raúl

2014-05-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Conducting adequate tsunami risk assessments is essential, as the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results allow the identification of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options, with the formulation of a tsunami evacuation plan being one of the main expected results. An evacuation plan requires the analysis of the territory and an evaluation of the relevant elements (hazard, population, evacuation routes, and shelters), the modelling of the evacuation, and the proposal of alternatives for those communities located in areas with limited opportunities for evacuation. Evacuation plans, which are developed by the responsible authorities and decision makers, would benefit from a clear and straightforward connection between the scientific and technical information from tsunami risk assessments and the subsequent risk reduction options. Scientifically-based evacuation plans would translate into benefits for the society in terms of mortality reduction. This work presents a comprehensive framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process, such as the potential location for vertical evacuation shelters and alternative routes. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study through the project "Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador", funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

Integrated computational model of the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiao; Jacobs, Elizabeth R.; Camara, Amadou K. S.; Clough, Anne V.

2018-01-01

Integrated computational modeling provides a mechanistic and quantitative framework for describing lung mitochondrial bioenergetics. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop and validate a thermodynamically-constrained integrated computational model of the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria. The model incorporates the major biochemical reactions and transport processes in lung mitochondria. A general framework was developed to model those biochemical reactions and transport processes. Intrinsic model parameters such as binding constants were estimated using previously published isolated enzymes and transporters kinetic data. Extrinsic model parameters such as maximal reaction and transport velocities were estimated by fitting the integrated bioenergetics model to published and new tricarboxylic acid cycle and respirometry data measured in isolated rat lung mitochondria. The integrated model was then validated by assessing its ability to predict experimental data not used for the estimation of the extrinsic model parameters. For example, the model was able to predict reasonably well the substrate and temperature dependency of mitochondrial oxygen consumption, kinetics of NADH redox status, and the kinetics of mitochondrial accumulation of the cationic dye rhodamine 123, driven by mitochondrial membrane potential, under different respiratory states. The latter required the coupling of the integrated bioenergetics model to a pharmacokinetic model for the mitochondrial uptake of rhodamine 123 from buffer. The integrated bioenergetics model provides a mechanistic and quantitative framework for 1) integrating experimental data from isolated lung mitochondria under diverse experimental conditions, and 2) assessing the impact of a change in one or more mitochondrial processes on overall lung mitochondrial bioenergetics. In addition, the model provides important insights into the bioenergetics and respiration of lung mitochondria and how they differ from those of mitochondria from other organs. To the best of our knowledge, this model is the first for the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria. PMID:29889855

Integrated computational model of the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao; Dash, Ranjan K; Jacobs, Elizabeth R; Camara, Amadou K S; Clough, Anne V; Audi, Said H

2018-01-01

Integrated computational modeling provides a mechanistic and quantitative framework for describing lung mitochondrial bioenergetics. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop and validate a thermodynamically-constrained integrated computational model of the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria. The model incorporates the major biochemical reactions and transport processes in lung mitochondria. A general framework was developed to model those biochemical reactions and transport processes. Intrinsic model parameters such as binding constants were estimated using previously published isolated enzymes and transporters kinetic data. Extrinsic model parameters such as maximal reaction and transport velocities were estimated by fitting the integrated bioenergetics model to published and new tricarboxylic acid cycle and respirometry data measured in isolated rat lung mitochondria. The integrated model was then validated by assessing its ability to predict experimental data not used for the estimation of the extrinsic model parameters. For example, the model was able to predict reasonably well the substrate and temperature dependency of mitochondrial oxygen consumption, kinetics of NADH redox status, and the kinetics of mitochondrial accumulation of the cationic dye rhodamine 123, driven by mitochondrial membrane potential, under different respiratory states. The latter required the coupling of the integrated bioenergetics model to a pharmacokinetic model for the mitochondrial uptake of rhodamine 123 from buffer. The integrated bioenergetics model provides a mechanistic and quantitative framework for 1) integrating experimental data from isolated lung mitochondria under diverse experimental conditions, and 2) assessing the impact of a change in one or more mitochondrial processes on overall lung mitochondrial bioenergetics. In addition, the model provides important insights into the bioenergetics and respiration of lung mitochondria and how they differ from those of mitochondria from other organs. To the best of our knowledge, this model is the first for the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria.

GIS and Geodatabase Disaster Risk for Spatial Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendriawan Nur, Wawan; Kumoro, Yugo; Susilowati, Yuliana

2018-02-01

The spatial planning in Indonesia needs to consider the information on the potential disaster. That is because disaster is a serious and detrimental problem that often occurs and causes casualties in some areas in Indonesia as well as inhibits the development. Various models and research were developed to calculate disaster risk assessment. GIS is a system for assembling, storing, analyzing, and displaying geographically referenced disaster. The information can be collaborated with geodatabases to model and to estimate disaster risk in an automated way. It also offers the possibility to customize most of the parameters used in the models. This paper describes a framework which can improve GIS and Geodatabase for the vulnerability, capacity or disaster risk assessment to support the spatial planning activities so they can be more adaptable. By using this framework, GIS application can be used in any location by adjusting variables or calculation methods without changing or rebuilding system from scratch.

From individual to population level effects of toxicants in the tubicifid Branchiura sowerbyi using threshold effect models in a Bayesian framework.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Billoir, Elise; Péry, Alexandre R R; Garric, Jeanne; Charles, Sandrine

2010-05-01

Effects of zinc were studied in the freshwater worm Branchiura sowerbyi using partial and full life-cycle tests. Only newborn and juveniles were sensitive to zinc, displaying effects on survival, growth, and age at first brood at environmentally relevant concentrations. Threshold effect models were proposed to assess toxic effects on individuals. They were fitted to life-cycle test data using Bayesian inference and adequately described life-history trait data in exposed organisms. The daily asymptotic growth rate of theoretical populations was then simulated with a matrix population model, based upon individual-level outputs. Population-level outputs were in accordance with existing literature for controls. Working in a Bayesian framework allowed incorporating parameter uncertainty in the simulation of the population-level response to zinc exposure, thus increasing the relevance of test results in the context of ecological risk assessment.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Volcano Modelling and Simulation gateway (VMSg): A new web-based framework for collaborative research in physical modelling and simulation of volcanic phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposti Ongaro, T.; Barsotti, S.; de'Michieli Vitturi, M.; Favalli, M.; Longo, A.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.; Papale, P.; Saccorotti, G.

2009-12-01

Physical and numerical modelling is becoming of increasing importance in volcanology and volcanic hazard assessment. However, new interdisciplinary problems arise when dealing with complex mathematical formulations, numerical algorithms and their implementations on modern computer architectures. Therefore new frameworks are needed for sharing knowledge, software codes, and datasets among scientists. Here we present the Volcano Modelling and Simulation gateway (VMSg, accessible at http://vmsg.pi.ingv.it), a new electronic infrastructure for promoting knowledge growth and transfer in the field of volcanological modelling and numerical simulation. The new web portal, developed in the framework of former and ongoing national and European projects, is based on a dynamic Content Manager System (CMS) and was developed to host and present numerical models of the main volcanic processes and relationships including magma properties, magma chamber dynamics, conduit flow, plume dynamics, pyroclastic flows, lava flows, etc. Model applications, numerical code documentation, simulation datasets as well as model validation and calibration test-cases are also part of the gateway material.

Development and application of the adverse outcome pathway framework for understanding and predicting chronic toxicity: I. Challenges and research needs in ecotoxicology.

PubMed

Groh, Ksenia J; Carvalho, Raquel N; Chipman, James K; Denslow, Nancy D; Halder, Marlies; Murphy, Cheryl A; Roelofs, Dick; Rolaki, Alexandra; Schirmer, Kristin; Watanabe, Karen H

2015-02-01

To elucidate the effects of chemicals on populations of different species in the environment, efficient testing and modeling approaches are needed that consider multiple stressors and allow reliable extrapolation of responses across species. An adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a concept that provides a framework for organizing knowledge about the progression of toxicity events across scales of biological organization that lead to adverse outcomes relevant for risk assessment. In this paper, we focus on exploring how the AOP concept can be used to guide research aimed at improving both our understanding of chronic toxicity, including delayed toxicity as well as epigenetic and transgenerational effects of chemicals, and our ability to predict adverse outcomes. A better understanding of the influence of subtle toxicity on individual and population fitness would support a broader integration of sublethal endpoints into risk assessment frameworks. Detailed mechanistic knowledge would facilitate the development of alternative testing methods as well as help prioritize higher tier toxicity testing. We argue that targeted development of AOPs supports both of these aspects by promoting the elucidation of molecular mechanisms and their contribution to relevant toxicity outcomes across biological scales. We further discuss information requirements and challenges in application of AOPs for chemical- and site-specific risk assessment and for extrapolation across species. We provide recommendations for potential extension of the AOP framework to incorporate information on exposure, toxicokinetics and situation-specific ecological contexts, and discuss common interfaces that can be employed to couple AOPs with computational modeling approaches and with evolutionary life history theory. The extended AOP framework can serve as a venue for integration of knowledge derived from various sources, including empirical data as well as molecular, quantitative and evolutionary-based models describing species responses to toxicants. This will allow a more efficient application of AOP knowledge for quantitative chemical- and site-specific risk assessment as well as for extrapolation across species in the future. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

SU-F-J-14: Kilovoltage Cone-Beam CT Dose Estimation of Varian On-Board Imager Using GMctdospp Monte Carlo Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, S; Rangaraj, D

2016-06-15

Purpose: Although cone-beam CT (CBCT) imaging became popular in radiation oncology, its imaging dose estimation is still challenging. The goal of this study is to assess the kilovoltage CBCT doses using GMctdospp - an EGSnrc based Monte Carlo (MC) framework. Methods: Two Varian OBI x-ray tube models were implemented in the GMctpdospp framework of EGSnrc MC System. The x-ray spectrum of 125 kVp CBCT beam was acquired from an EGSnrc/BEAMnrc simulation and validated with IPEM report 78. Then, the spectrum was utilized as an input spectrum in GMctdospp dose calculations. Both full and half bowtie pre-filters of the OBI systemmore » were created by using egs-prism module. The x-ray tube MC models were verified by comparing calculated dosimetric profiles (lateral and depth) to ion chamber measurements for a static x-ray beam irradiation to a cuboid water phantom. An abdominal CBCT imaging doses was simulated in GMctdospp framework using a 5-year-old anthropomorphic phantom. The organ doses and effective dose (ED) from the framework were assessed and compared to the MOSFET measurements and convolution/superposition dose calculations. Results: The lateral and depth dose profiles in the water cuboid phantom were well matched within 6% except a few areas - left shoulder of the half bowtie lateral profile and surface of water phantom. The organ doses and ED from the MC framework were found to be closer to MOSFET measurements and CS calculations within 2 cGy and 5 mSv respectively. Conclusion: This study implemented and validated the Varian OBI x-ray tube models in the GMctdospp MC framework using a cuboid water phantom and CBCT imaging doses were also evaluated in a 5-year-old anthropomorphic phantom. In future study, various CBCT imaging protocols will be implemented and validated and consequently patient CT images will be used to estimate the CBCT imaging doses in patients.« less

Data Management System for the National Energy-Water System (NEWS) Assessment Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Glidden, S.; Piasecki, M.; Celicourt, P.; Miara, A.; Fekete, B. M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Macknick, J.; Cohen, S. M.

2015-12-01

Aiming at providing a comprehensive assessment of the water-energy nexus, the National Energy-Water System (NEWS) project requires the integration of data to support a modeling framework that links climate, hydrological, power production, transmission, and economical models. Large amounts of Georeferenced data has to be streamed to the components of the inter-disciplinary model to explore future challenges and tradeoffs in the US power production, based on climate scenarios, power plant locations and technologies, available water resources, ecosystem sustainability, and economic demand. We used open source and in-house build software components to build a system that addresses two major data challenges: On-the-fly re-projection, re-gridding, interpolation, extrapolation, nodata patching, merging, temporal and spatial aggregation, of static and time series datasets in virtually any file formats and file structures, and any geographic extent for the models I/O, directly at run time; Comprehensive data management based on metadata cataloguing and discovery in repositories utilizing the MAGIC Table (Manipulation and Geographic Inquiry Control database). This innovative concept allows models to access data on-the-fly by data ID, irrespective of file path, file structure, file format and regardless its GIS specifications. In addition, a web-based information and computational system is being developed to control the I/O of spatially distributed Earth system, climate, and hydrological, power grid, and economical data flow within the NEWS framework. The system allows scenario building, data exploration, visualization, querying, and manipulation any loaded gridded, point, and vector polygon dataset. The system has demonstrated its potential for applications in other fields of Earth science modeling, education, and outreach. Over time, this implementation of the system will provide near real-time assessment of various current and future scenarios of the water-energy nexus.

The Spatially-Distributed Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Hydrologic/Water Quality (H/WQ) model for assessment of conservation effects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) is a modular, Java-based spatially distributed model which implements hydrologic/water quality (H/WQ) simulation components under the Object Modeling System (OMS3) environmental modeling framework. AgES-W has recently been enhanced with the addition of nitrogen (N) a...

A New Framework for Effective and Efficient Global Sensitivity Analysis of Earth and Environmental Systems Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razavi, Saman; Gupta, Hoshin

2015-04-01

Earth and Environmental Systems (EES) models are essential components of research, development, and decision-making in science and engineering disciplines. With continuous advances in understanding and computing power, such models are becoming more complex with increasingly more factors to be specified (model parameters, forcings, boundary conditions, etc.). To facilitate better understanding of the role and importance of different factors in producing the model responses, the procedure known as 'Sensitivity Analysis' (SA) can be very helpful. Despite the availability of a large body of literature on the development and application of various SA approaches, two issues continue to pose major challenges: (1) Ambiguous Definition of Sensitivity - Different SA methods are based in different philosophies and theoretical definitions of sensitivity, and can result in different, even conflicting, assessments of the underlying sensitivities for a given problem, (2) Computational Cost - The cost of carrying out SA can be large, even excessive, for high-dimensional problems and/or computationally intensive models. In this presentation, we propose a new approach to sensitivity analysis that addresses the dual aspects of 'effectiveness' and 'efficiency'. By effective, we mean achieving an assessment that is both meaningful and clearly reflective of the objective of the analysis (the first challenge above), while by efficiency we mean achieving statistically robust results with minimal computational cost (the second challenge above). Based on this approach, we develop a 'global' sensitivity analysis framework that efficiently generates a newly-defined set of sensitivity indices that characterize a range of important properties of metric 'response surfaces' encountered when performing SA on EES models. Further, we show how this framework embraces, and is consistent with, a spectrum of different concepts regarding 'sensitivity', and that commonly-used SA approaches (e.g., Sobol, Morris, etc.) are actually limiting cases of our approach under specific conditions. Multiple case studies are used to demonstrate the value of the new framework. The results show that the new framework provides a fundamental understanding of the underlying sensitivities for any given problem, while requiring orders of magnitude fewer model runs.

A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Gordon C.; Dickens, Chris; Hines, Eleanor; Wepener, Victor; Stassen, Retha; Quayle, Leo; Fouchy, Kelly; MacKenzie, James; Graham, P. Mark; Landis, Wayne G.

2018-02-01

Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements.

BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Bakker, Alexander M. R.; Ruckert, Kelsey; Applegate, Patrick; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Keller, Klaus

2017-07-01

Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easy to reproduce. These qualities also make simple models useful for the characterization of risk. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geosciences can often be hard to access, run, modify (e.g., with regards to assumptions and model components), and review. Here, we describe the simple model framework BRICK (Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge) v0.2 and its underlying design principles. The paper adds detail to an earlier published model setup and discusses the inclusion of a land water storage component. The framework largely builds on existing models and allows for projections of global mean temperature as well as regional sea levels and coastal flood risk. BRICK is written in R and Fortran. BRICK gives special attention to the model values of transparency, accessibility, and flexibility in order to mitigate the above-mentioned issues while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework through simple model intercomparison experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that BRICK is suitable for risk assessment applications by using a didactic example in local flood risk management.

Cross-cultural re-entry for missionaries: a new application for the Dual Process Model.

PubMed

Selby, Susan; Clark, Sheila; Braunack-Mayer, Annette; Jones, Alison; Moulding, Nicole; Beilby, Justin

Nearly half a million foreign aid workers currently work worldwide, including over 140,000 missionaries. During re-entry these workers may experience significant psychological distress. This article positions previous research about psychological distress during re-entry, emphasizing loss and grief. At present there is no identifiable theoretical framework to provide a basis for assessment, management, and prevention of re-entry distress in the clinical setting. The development of theoretical concepts and frameworks surrounding loss and grief including the Dual Process Model (DPM) are discussed. All the parameters of the DPM have been shown to be appropriate for the proposed re-entry model, the Dual Process Model applied to Re-entry (DPMR). It is proposed that the DPMR is an appropriate framework to address the processes and strategies of managing re-entry loss and grief. Possible future clinical applications and limitations of the proposed model are discussed. The DPMR is offered for further validation and use in clinical practice.

A generic bio-economic farm model for environmental and economic assessment of agricultural systems.

PubMed

Janssen, Sander; Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K

2010-12-01

Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models.

A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems

PubMed Central

Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K.

2010-01-01

Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models. PMID:21113782

When 1+1 can be >2: Uncertainties compound when simulating climate, fisheries and marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Karen; Brown, Jaclyn N.; Sen Gupta, Alex; Nicol, Simon J.; Hoyle, Simon; Matear, Richard; Arrizabalaga, Haritz

2015-03-01

Multi-disciplinary approaches that combine oceanographic, biogeochemical, ecosystem, fisheries population and socio-economic models are vital tools for modelling whole ecosystems. Interpreting the outputs from such complex models requires an appreciation of the many different types of modelling frameworks being used and their associated limitations and uncertainties. Both users and developers of particular model components will often have little involvement or understanding of other components within such modelling frameworks. Failure to recognise limitations and uncertainties associated with components and how these uncertainties might propagate throughout modelling frameworks can potentially result in poor advice for resource management. Unfortunately, many of the current integrative frameworks do not propagate the uncertainties of their constituent parts. In this review, we outline the major components of a generic whole of ecosystem modelling framework incorporating the external pressures of climate and fishing. We discuss the limitations and uncertainties associated with each component of such a modelling system, along with key research gaps. Major uncertainties in modelling frameworks are broadly categorised into those associated with (i) deficient knowledge in the interactions of climate and ocean dynamics with marine organisms and ecosystems; (ii) lack of observations to assess and advance modelling efforts and (iii) an inability to predict with confidence natural ecosystem variability and longer term changes as a result of external drivers (e.g. greenhouse gases, fishing effort) and the consequences for marine ecosystems. As a result of these uncertainties and intrinsic differences in the structure and parameterisation of models, users are faced with considerable challenges associated with making appropriate choices on which models to use. We suggest research directions required to address these uncertainties, and caution against overconfident predictions. Understanding the full impact of uncertainty makes it clear that full comprehension and robust certainty about the systems themselves are not feasible. A key research direction is the development of management systems that are robust to this unavoidable uncertainty.

Measuring Up: Are You Looking for a Way to Assess Your Teaching Practice? These Three Frameworks Can Help You Evaluate Your Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carrero, Jacqueline

2015-01-01

The author discusses how teachers can measure their effectiveness and discusses three frameworks they can use to do so: the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards's Core Propositions, Robert J. Marzano's Teacher Evaluation Model, and John Hattie's eight mind frames. She also gives examples from her own experience to show how she…

Assessing the Intention to Use Technology among Pre-Service Teachers in Singapore and Malaysia: A Multigroup Invariance Analysis of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teo, Timothy; Lee, Chwee Beng; Chai, Ching Sing; Wong, Su Luan

2009-01-01

This study assesses the pre-service teachers' self-reported future intentions to use technology in Singapore and Malaysia. A survey was employed to validate items from past research. Using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) as a research framework, 495 pre-service teachers from Singapore and Malaysia responded to an 11-item questionnaires…

USE OF EXPOSURE-RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL (ERDEM) FOR ASSESSMENT OF AGGREGATE EXPOSURE OF INFANT AND CHILDREN TO N-METHYL CARBAMATE INSECTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed within the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) framework to investigate selected exposure inputs related to recognized exposure scenarios of infants and children to N-methyl carbamate pesticides as spec...

Assessing Two Theoretical Frameworks of Civic Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

García-Cabrero, Benilde; Pérez-Martínez, María Guadalupe; Sandoval-Hernández, Andrés; Caso-Niebla, Joaquín; Díaz-López, Carlos David

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to empirically test two major theoretical models: a modified version of the social capital model (Pattie, Seyd and Whiteley, 2003), and the Informed Social Engagement Model (Barr and Selman, 2014; Selman and Kwok, 2010), to explain civic participation and civic knowledge of adolescents from Chile, Colombia and Mexico,…

Brands as Intentional Agents Framework: How Perceived Intentions and Ability Can Map Brand Perception.

PubMed

Kervyn, Nicolas; Fiske, Susan T; Malone, Chris

2012-04-01

Building on the Stereotype Content Model, this paper introduces and tests the Brands as Intentional Agents Framework. A growing body of research suggests that consumers have relationships with brands that resemble relations between people. We propose that consumers perceive brands in the same way they perceive people. This approach allows us to explore how social perception theories and processes can predict brand purchase interest and loyalty. Brands as Intentional Agents Framework is based on a well-established social perception approach: the Stereotype Content Model. Two studies support the Brands as Intentional Agents Framework prediction that consumers assess a brand's perceived intentions and ability and that these perceptions elicit distinct emotions and drive differential brand behaviors. The research shows that human social interaction relationships translate to consumer-brand interactions in ways that are useful to inform brand positioning and brand communications.

A one health framework for estimating the economic costs of zoonotic diseases on society.

PubMed

Narrod, Clare; Zinsstag, Jakob; Tiongco, Marites

2012-06-01

This article presents an integrated epidemiological and economic framework for assessing zoonoses using a "one health" concept. The framework allows for an understanding of the cross-sector economic impact of zoonoses using modified risk analysis and detailing a range of analytical tools. The goal of the framework is to link the analysis outputs of animal and human disease transmission models, economic impact models and evaluation of risk management options to gain improved understanding of factors affecting the adoption of risk management strategies so that investment planning includes the most promising interventions (or sets of interventions) in an integrated fashion. A more complete understanding of the costs of the disease and the costs and benefits of control measures would promote broader implementation of the most efficient and effective control measures, contributing to improved animal and human health, better livelihood outcomes for the poor and macroeconomic growth.

Brands as Intentional Agents Framework: How Perceived Intentions and Ability Can Map Brand Perception

PubMed Central

Kervyn, Nicolas; Fiske, Susan T.; Malone, Chris

2013-01-01

Building on the Stereotype Content Model, this paper introduces and tests the Brands as Intentional Agents Framework. A growing body of research suggests that consumers have relationships with brands that resemble relations between people. We propose that consumers perceive brands in the same way they perceive people. This approach allows us to explore how social perception theories and processes can predict brand purchase interest and loyalty. Brands as Intentional Agents Framework is based on a well-established social perception approach: the Stereotype Content Model. Two studies support the Brands as Intentional Agents Framework prediction that consumers assess a brand’s perceived intentions and ability and that these perceptions elicit distinct emotions and drive differential brand behaviors. The research shows that human social interaction relationships translate to consumer-brand interactions in ways that are useful to inform brand positioning and brand communications. PMID:24403815

How Adverse Outcome Pathways Can Aid the Development and Use of Computational Prediction Models for Regulatory Toxicology.

PubMed

Wittwehr, Clemens; Aladjov, Hristo; Ankley, Gerald; Byrne, Hugh J; de Knecht, Joop; Heinzle, Elmar; Klambauer, Günter; Landesmann, Brigitte; Luijten, Mirjam; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Meek, M E Bette; Paini, Alicia; Perkins, Edward; Sobanski, Tomasz; Villeneuve, Dan; Waters, Katrina M; Whelan, Maurice

2017-02-01

Efforts are underway to transform regulatory toxicology and chemical safety assessment from a largely empirical science based on direct observation of apical toxicity outcomes in whole organism toxicity tests to a predictive one in which outcomes and risk are inferred from accumulated mechanistic understanding. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework provides a systematic approach for organizing knowledge that may support such inference. Likewise, computational models of biological systems at various scales provide another means and platform to integrate current biological understanding to facilitate inference and extrapolation. We argue that the systematic organization of knowledge into AOP frameworks can inform and help direct the design and development of computational prediction models that can further enhance the utility of mechanistic and in silico data for chemical safety assessment. This concept was explored as part of a workshop on AOP-Informed Predictive Modeling Approaches for Regulatory Toxicology held September 24-25, 2015. Examples of AOP-informed model development and its application to the assessment of chemicals for skin sensitization and multiple modes of endocrine disruption are provided. The role of problem formulation, not only as a critical phase of risk assessment, but also as guide for both AOP and complementary model development is described. Finally, a proposal for actively engaging the modeling community in AOP-informed computational model development is made. The contents serve as a vision for how AOPs can be leveraged to facilitate development of computational prediction models needed to support the next generation of chemical safety assessment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology.

A screening-level modeling approach to estimate nitrogen ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This paper presents a screening-level modeling approach that can be used to rapidly estimate nutrient loading and assess numerical nutrient standard exceedance risk of surface waters leading to potential classification as impaired for designated use. It can also be used to explore best management practice (BMP) implementation to reduce loading. The modeling framework uses a hybrid statistical and process based approach to estimate source of pollutants, their transport and decay in the terrestrial and aquatic parts of watersheds. The framework is developed in the ArcGIS environment and is based on the total maximum daily load (TMDL) balance model. Nitrogen (N) is currently addressed in the framework, referred to as WQM-TMDL-N. Loading for each catchment includes non-point sources (NPS) and point sources (PS). NPS loading is estimated using export coefficient or event mean concentration methods depending on the temporal scales, i.e., annual or daily. Loading from atmospheric deposition is also included. The probability of a nutrient load to exceed a target load is evaluated using probabilistic risk assessment, by including the uncertainty associated with export coefficients of various land uses. The computed risk data can be visualized as spatial maps which show the load exceedance probability for all stream segments. In an application of this modeling approach to the Tippecanoe River watershed in Indiana, USA, total nitrogen (TN) loading and risk of standard exce

Threat driven modeling framework using petri nets for e-learning system.

PubMed

Khamparia, Aditya; Pandey, Babita

2016-01-01

Vulnerabilities at various levels are main cause of security risks in e-learning system. This paper presents a modified threat driven modeling framework, to identify the threats after risk assessment which requires mitigation and how to mitigate those threats. To model those threat mitigations aspects oriented stochastic petri nets are used. This paper included security metrics based on vulnerabilities present in e-learning system. The Common Vulnerability Scoring System designed to provide a normalized method for rating vulnerabilities which will be used as basis in metric definitions and calculations. A case study has been also proposed which shows the need and feasibility of using aspect oriented stochastic petri net models for threat modeling which improves reliability, consistency and robustness of the e-learning system.

HOW CAN BIOLOGICALLY-BASED MODELING OF ARSENIC KINETICS AND DYNAMICS INFORM THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS?

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative biologically-based models describing key events in the continuum from arsenic exposure to the development of adverse health effects provide a framework to integrate information obtained across diverse research areas. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic met...

Environmental Impacts of Future Urban Deployment of Electric Vehicles: Assessment Framework and Case Study of Copenhagen for 2016-2030.

PubMed

Bohnes, Florence A; Gregg, Jay S; Laurent, Alexis

2017-12-05

To move toward environmentally sustainable transport systems, electric vehicles (EVs) are increasingly seen as viable alternatives to internal combustion vehicles (ICVs). To ensure effectiveness of such deployment, holistic assessments of environmental impacts can help decision-makers determine optimized urban strategies in a long-term perspective. However, explicit guidance and conduct of such assessments are currently missing. Here, we therefore propose a framework using life cycle assessment that enables the quantification of environmental impacts of a transport system at full urban scale from a fleet-based, foresight perspective. The analysis of the passenger car fleet development in the city of Copenhagen for the years 2016-2030 is used as a proof-of-concept. We modeled and compared five powertrain technologies, and we assessed four fleet-based scenarios for the entire city. Our results showed relative environmental benefits from range-extended and fuel-cell EVs over ICVs and standard EVs. These results were found to be sensitive to local settings, like electricity grid mix, which could alter the relative environmental performances across EV technologies. The comprehensive framework developed here can be applied to other geographic areas and contexts to assess the environmental sustainability of transport systems.

Assessing the formability of metallic sheets by means of localized and diffuse necking models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comşa, Dan-Sorin; Lǎzǎrescu, Lucian; Banabic, Dorel

2016-10-01

The main objective of the paper consists in elaborating a unified framework that allows the theoretical assessment of sheet metal formability. Hill's localized necking model and the Extended Maximum Force Criterion proposed by Mattiasson, Sigvant, and Larsson have been selected for this purpose. Both models are thoroughly described together with their solution procedures. A comparison of the theoretical predictions with experimental data referring to the formability of a DP600 steel sheet is also presented by the authors.

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making

PubMed Central

Nuijten, Mark JC; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-01-01

AIM: To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). METHODS: CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. RESULTS: A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. CONCLUSION: The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI. PMID:26601096

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making.

PubMed

Nuijten, Mark Jc; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-11-16

To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI.

A conceptual framework for achieving performance enhancing drug compliance in sport.

PubMed

Donovan, Robert J; Egger, Garry; Kapernick, Vicki; Mendoza, John

2002-01-01

There has been, and continues to be, widespread international concern about athletes' use of banned performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). This concern culminated in the formation of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) in November 1999. To date, the main focus on controlling the use of PEDs has been on testing athletes and the development of tests to detect usage. Although athletes' beliefs and values are known to influence whether or not an athlete will use drugs, little is known about athletes' beliefs and attitudes, and the limited empirical literature shows little use of behavioural science frameworks to guide research methodology, results interpretation, and intervention implications. Mindful of this in preparing its anti-doping strategy for the 2000 Olympics, the Australian Sports Drug Agency (ASDA) in 1997 commissioned a study to assess the extent to which models of attitude-behaviour change in the public health/injury prevention literature had useful implications for compliance campaigns in the sport drug area. A preliminary compliance model was developed from three behavioural science frameworks: social cognition models; threat (or fear) appeals; and instrumental and normative approaches. A subsequent review of the performance enhancing drug literature confirmed that the overall framework was consistent with known empirical data, and therefore had at least face validity if not construct validity. The overall model showed six major inputs to an athlete's attitudes and intentions with respect to performance enhancing drug usage: personality factors, threat appraisal, benefit appraisal, reference group influences, personal morality and legitimacy. The model demonstrated that a comprehensive, fully integrated programme is necessary for maximal effect, and provides anti-doping agencies with a structured framework for strategic planning and implementing interventions. Programmes can be developed in each of the six major areas, with allocation of resources to each area based on needs-assessment research with athletes and other relevant groups.

An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2013-12-01

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century changes in global mean surface air temperature from previous work with the IGSM. Because the IGSM-CAM framework only considers one particular climate model, it cannot be used to assess the structural modeling uncertainty arising from differences in the parameterization suites of climate models. However, comparison of the IGSM-CAM projections with simulations of 31 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show that the range of warming at the continental scale shows very good agreement between the two ensemble simulations, except over Antarctica, where the IGSM-CAM overestimates the warming. This demonstrates that by sampling the climate system response, the IGSM-CAM, even though it relies on one single climate model, can essentially reproduce the range of future continental warming simulated by more than 30 different models. Precipitation changes projected in the IGSM-CAM simulations and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble both display a large uncertainty at the continental scale. The two ensemble simulations show good agreement over Asia and Europe. However, the ranges of precipitation changes do not overlap - but display similar size - over Africa and South America, two continents where models generally show little agreement in the sign of precipitation changes and where CCSM3 tends to be an outlier. Overall, the IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and consistent framework to explore the large uncertainty in future projections of global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions.

When is a randomised controlled trial health equity relevant? Development and validation of a conceptual framework

PubMed Central

Jull, J; Whitehead, M; Petticrew, M; Kristjansson, E; Gough, D; Petkovic, J; Volmink, J; Weijer, C; Taljaard, M; Edwards, S; Mbuagbaw, L; Cookson, R; McGowan, J; Lyddiatt, A; Boyer, Y; Cuervo, L G; Armstrong, R; White, H; Yoganathan, M; Pantoja, T; Shea, B; Pottie, K; Norheim, O; Baird, S; Robberstad, B; Sommerfelt, H; Asada, Y; Wells, G; Tugwell, P; Welch, V

2017-01-01

Background Randomised controlled trials can provide evidence relevant to assessing the equity impact of an intervention, but such information is often poorly reported. We describe a conceptual framework to identify health equity-relevant randomised trials with the aim of improving the design and reporting of such trials. Methods An interdisciplinary and international research team engaged in an iterative consensus building process to develop and refine the conceptual framework via face-to-face meetings, teleconferences and email correspondence, including findings from a validation exercise whereby two independent reviewers used the emerging framework to classify a sample of randomised trials. Results A randomised trial can usefully be classified as ‘health equity relevant’ if it assesses the effects of an intervention on the health or its determinants of either individuals or a population who experience ill health due to disadvantage defined across one or more social determinants of health. Health equity-relevant randomised trials can either exclusively focus on a single population or collect data potentially useful for assessing differential effects of the intervention across multiple populations experiencing different levels or types of social disadvantage. Trials that are not classified as ‘health equity relevant’ may nevertheless provide information that is indirectly relevant to assessing equity impact, including information about individual level variation unrelated to social disadvantage and potentially useful in secondary modelling studies. Conclusion The conceptual framework may be used to design and report randomised trials. The framework could also be used for other study designs to contribute to the evidence base for improved health equity. PMID:28951402

Excellence in Higher Education Workbook and Scoring Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruben, Brent D.

2007-01-01

Self-assessment leads to stronger performance in the nation's colleges and universities. That's the premise of "Excellence in Higher Education," a model self-assessment program that has earned accolades from the higher education community. Based on the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award framework, the fourth edition of this bestseller is the…

The Role of Assessment in a Prevention Science Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herman, Keith C.; Riley-Tillman, T. Chris; Reinke, Wendy M.

2012-01-01

The articles in this Special Topic issue present a range of assessment models and challenges for improving the identification and early intervention of students in need of additional supports. Although each article targets a unique aspect of student learning (learning behaviors, math skills, reading comprehension, behavioral functioning, and…

E-Services quality assessment framework for collaborative networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stegaru, Georgiana; Danila, Cristian; Sacala, Ioan Stefan; Moisescu, Mihnea; Mihai Stanescu, Aurelian

2015-08-01

In a globalised networked economy, collaborative networks (CNs) are formed to take advantage of new business opportunities. Collaboration involves shared resources and capabilities, such as e-Services that can be dynamically composed to automate CN participants' business processes. Quality is essential for the success of business process automation. Current approaches mostly focus on quality of service (QoS)-based service selection and ranking algorithms, overlooking the process of service composition which requires interoperable, adaptable and secure e-Services to ensure seamless collaboration, data confidentiality and integrity. Lack of assessment of these quality attributes can result in e-Service composition failure. The quality of e-Service composition relies on the quality of each e-Service and on the quality of the composition process. Therefore, there is the need for a framework that addresses quality from both views: product and process. We propose a quality of e-Service composition (QoESC) framework for quality assessment of e-Service composition for CNs which comprises of a quality model for e-Service evaluation and guidelines for quality of e-Service composition process. We implemented a prototype considering a simplified telemedicine use case which involves a CN in e-Healthcare domain. To validate the proposed quality-driven framework, we analysed service composition reliability with and without using the proposed framework.

A framework for the evaluation of patient information leaflets

PubMed Central

Garner, Mark; Ning, Zhenye; Francis, Jill

2011-01-01

Abstract Background  The provision of patient information leaflets (PILs) is an important part of health care. PILs require evaluation, but the frameworks that are used for evaluation are largely under‐informed by theory. Most evaluation to date has been based on indices of readability, yet several writers argue that readability is not enough. We propose a framework for evaluating PILs that reflect the central role of the patient perspective in communication and use methods for evaluation based on simple linguistic principles. The proposed framework  The framework has three elements that give rise to three approaches to evaluation. Each element is a necessary but not sufficient condition for effective communication. Readability (focussing on text) may be assessed using existing well‐established procedures. Comprehensibility (focussing on reader and text) may be assessed using multiple‐choice questions based on the lexical and semantic features of the text. Communicative effectiveness (focussing on reader) explores the relationship between the emotional, cognitive and behavioural responses of the reader and the objectives of the PIL. Suggested methods for assessment are described, based on our preliminary empirical investigations. Conclusions  The tripartite model of communicative effectiveness is a patient‐centred framework for evaluating PILs. It may assist the field in moving beyond readability to broader indicators of the quality and appropriateness of printed information provided to patients. PMID:21332620

A Framework for Effective Use of Hydroclimate Models in Climate-Change Adaptation Planning for Managed Habitats with Limited Hydrologic Response Data.

PubMed

Esralew, Rachel A; Flint, Lorraine; Thorne, James H; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Alan

2016-07-01

Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981-2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule's Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3-100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10-20 to 40-60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

Use of mathematical modelling to assess the impact of vaccines on antibiotic resistance.

PubMed

Atkins, Katherine E; Lafferty, Erin I; Deeny, Sarah R; Davies, Nicholas G; Robotham, Julie V; Jit, Mark

2018-06-01

Antibiotic resistance is a major global threat to the provision of safe and effective health care. To control antibiotic resistance, vaccines have been proposed as an essential intervention, complementing improvements in diagnostic testing, antibiotic stewardship, and drug pipelines. The decision to introduce or amend vaccination programmes is routinely based on mathematical modelling. However, few mathematical models address the impact of vaccination on antibiotic resistance. We reviewed the literature using PubMed to identify all studies that used an original mathematical model to quantify the impact of a vaccine on antibiotic resistance transmission within a human population. We reviewed the models from the resulting studies in the context of a new framework to elucidate the pathways through which vaccination might impact antibiotic resistance. We identified eight mathematical modelling studies; the state of the literature highlighted important gaps in our understanding. Notably, studies are limited in the range of pathways represented, their geographical scope, and the vaccine-pathogen combinations assessed. Furthermore, to translate model predictions into public health decision making, more work is needed to understand how model structure and parameterisation affects model predictions and how to embed these predictions within economic frameworks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An examination of the spatial variability of the United States surface water balance using the Budyko relationship for current and projected climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2017-12-01

The spatial variability in the balance between surface runoff (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for understanding water availability. The Budyko framework suggests that this balance is solely a function of aridity. Observed deviations from this framework for individual watersheds, however, can vary significantly, resulting in uncertainty in using the Budyko framework in ungauged catchments and under future climate and land use scenarios. Here, we model the spatial variability in the partitioning of precipitation into Q and ET using a set of climatic, physiographic, and vegetation metrics for 211 near-natural watersheds across the contiguous United States (CONUS) within Budyko's framework through the free parameter ω. Using a generalized additive model, we found that precipitation seasonality, the ratio of soil water holding capacity to precipitation, topographic slope, and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow explained 81.2% of the variability in ω. This ω model applied to the Budyko framework explained 97% of the spatial variability in long-term Q for an independent set of near-natural watersheds. The developed ω model was also used to estimate the entire CONUS surface water balance for both contemporary and mid-21st century conditions. The contemporary CONUS surface water balance compared favorably to more sophisticated land-surface modeling efforts. For mid-21st century conditions, the model simulated an increase in the fraction of precipitation used by ET across the CONUS with declines in Q for much of the eastern CONUS and mountainous watersheds across the western US. The Budyko framework using the modeled ω lends itself to an alternative approach for assessing the potential response of catchment water balance to climate change to complement other approaches.

A deliberative framework to identify the need for real-life evidence building of new cancer drugs after interim funding decision.

PubMed

Leung, Leanne; de Lemos, Mário L; Kovacic, Laurel

2017-01-01

Background With the rising cost of new oncology treatments, it is no longer sustainable to base initial drug funding decisions primarily on prospective clinical trials as their performance in real-life populations are often difficult to determine. In British Columbia, an approach in evidence building is to retrospectively analyse patient outcomes using observational research on an ad hoc basis. Methods The deliberative framework was constructed in three stages: framework design, framework validation and treatment programme characterization, and key informant interview. Framework design was informed through a literature review and analyses of provincial and national decision-making processes. Treatment programmes funded between 2010 and 2013 were used for framework validation. A selection concordance rate of 80% amongst three reviewers was considered to be a validation of the framework. Key informant interviews were conducted to determine the utility of this deliberative framework. Results A multi-domain deliberative framework with 15 assessment parameters was developed. A selection concordance rate of 84.2% was achieved for content validation of the framework. Nine treatment programmes from five different tumour groups were selected for retrospective outcomes analysis. Five contributory factors to funding uncertainties were identified. Key informants agreed that the framework is a comprehensive tool that targets the key areas involved in the funding decision-making process. Conclusions The oncology-based deliberative framework can be routinely used to assess treatment programmes from the major tumour sites for retrospective outcomes analysis. Key informants indicate this is a value-added tool and will provide insight to the current prospective funding model.

Decision support system based on DPSIR framework for a low flow Mediterranean river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bangash, Rubab Fatima; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta

2013-04-01

The application of decision making practices are effectively enhanced by adopting a procedural approach setting out a general methodological framework within which specific methods, models and tools can be integrated. Integrated Catchment Management is a process that recognizes the river catchment as a basic organizing unit for understanding and managing ecosystem process. Decision support system becomes more complex by considering unavoidable human activities within a catchment that are motivated by multiple and often competing criteria and/or constraints. DPSIR is a causal framework for describing the interactions between society and the environment. This framework has been adopted by the European Environment Agency and the components of this model are: Driving forces, Pressures, States, Impacts and Responses. The proposed decision support system is a two step framework based on DPSIR. Considering first three component of DPSIR, Driving forces, Pressures and States, hydrological and ecosystem services models are developed. The last two components, Impact and Responses, helped to develop Bayesian Network to integrate the models. This decision support system also takes account of social, economic and environmental aspects. A small river of Catalonia (Northeastern Spain), Francoli River with a low flow (~2 m3/s) is selected for integration of catchment assessment models and to improve knowledge transfer from research to the stakeholders with a view to improve decision making process. DHI's MIKE BASIN software is used to evaluate the low-flow Francolí River with respect to the water bodies' characteristics and also to assess the impact of human activities aiming to achieve good water status for all waters to comply with the WFD's River Basin Management Plan. Based on ArcGIS, MIKE BASIN is a versatile decision support tool that provides a simple and powerful framework for managers and stakeholders to address multisectoral allocation and environmental issues in river basins. While InVEST is a spatially explicit tool, used to model and map a suite of ecosystem services caused by land cover changes or climate change impacts. Moreover, results obtained from low-flow hydrological simulation and ecosystem services models serves as useful tools to develop decision support system based on DPSIR framework by integrating models. Bayesian Networks is used as a knowledge integration and visualization tool to summarize the outcomes of hydrological and ecosystem services models at the "Response" stage of DPSIR. Bayesian Networks provide a framework for modelling the logical relationship between catchment variables and decision objectives by quantifying the strength of these relationships using conditional probabilities. Participatory nature of this framework can provide better communication of water research, particularly in the context of a perceived lack of future awareness-raising with the public that helps to develop more sustainable water management strategies. Acknowledgements The present study was financially supported by Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for its financial support through the project SCARCE (Consolider-Ingenio 2010 CSD2009-00065). R. F. Bangash also received PhD fellowship from AGAUR (Commissioner for Universities and Research of the Department of Innovation, Universities and Enterprise of the "Generalitat de Catalunya" and the European Social Fund).

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

2016-08-01

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

A structured framework for assessing sensitivity to missing data assumptions in longitudinal clinical trials.

PubMed

Mallinckrodt, C H; Lin, Q; Molenberghs, M

2013-01-01

The objective of this research was to demonstrate a framework for drawing inference from sensitivity analyses of incomplete longitudinal clinical trial data via a re-analysis of data from a confirmatory clinical trial in depression. A likelihood-based approach that assumed missing at random (MAR) was the primary analysis. Robustness to departure from MAR was assessed by comparing the primary result to those from a series of analyses that employed varying missing not at random (MNAR) assumptions (selection models, pattern mixture models and shared parameter models) and to MAR methods that used inclusive models. The key sensitivity analysis used multiple imputation assuming that after dropout the trajectory of drug-treated patients was that of placebo treated patients with a similar outcome history (placebo multiple imputation). This result was used as the worst reasonable case to define the lower limit of plausible values for the treatment contrast. The endpoint contrast from the primary analysis was - 2.79 (p = .013). In placebo multiple imputation, the result was - 2.17. Results from the other sensitivity analyses ranged from - 2.21 to - 3.87 and were symmetrically distributed around the primary result. Hence, no clear evidence of bias from missing not at random data was found. In the worst reasonable case scenario, the treatment effect was 80% of the magnitude of the primary result. Therefore, it was concluded that a treatment effect existed. The structured sensitivity framework of using a worst reasonable case result based on a controlled imputation approach with transparent and debatable assumptions supplemented a series of plausible alternative models under varying assumptions was useful in this specific situation and holds promise as a generally useful framework. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Excellence in Higher Education Guide: An Integrated Approach to Assessment, Planning, and Improvement in Colleges and Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruben, Brent D.

2007-01-01

Self-assessment leads to stronger performance in the nation's colleges and universities. That's the premise of "Excellence in Higher Education," a model self-assessment program that has earned accolades from the higher education community. Based on the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award framework, the fourth edition of this bestseller is the…

Using Astin's I-E-O Model to Explain the Development of a Culture of Assessment: A Case Study of a Four-Year University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Mary Genusa

2013-01-01

The researcher sought to describe the culture of assessment for post-secondary program improvement that had resulted from the new requirements for reaffirmation through regional accreditation. The literature was deficient in a conceptual framework and surveys to measure a culture of assessment. The researcher developed a conceptual framework…

Integrating surrogate models into subsurface simulation framework allows computation of complex reactive transport scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Jatnieks, Janis; Kühn, Michael

2017-04-01

Reactive transport simulations - where geochemical reactions are coupled with hydrodynamic transport of reactants - are extremely time consuming and suffer from significant numerical issues. Given the high uncertainties inherently associated with the geochemical models, which also constitute the major computational bottleneck, such requirements may seem inappropriate and probably constitute the main limitation for their wide application. A promising way to ease and speed-up such coupled simulations is achievable employing statistical surrogates instead of "full-physics" geochemical models [1]. Data-driven surrogates are reduced models obtained on a set of pre-calculated "full physics" simulations, capturing their principal features while being extremely fast to compute. Model reduction of course comes at price of a precision loss; however, this appears justified in presence of large uncertainties regarding the parametrization of geochemical processes. This contribution illustrates the integration of surrogates into the flexible simulation framework currently being developed by the authors' research group [2]. The high level language of choice for obtaining and dealing with surrogate models is R, which profits from state-of-the-art methods for statistical analysis of large simulations ensembles. A stand-alone advective mass transport module was furthermore developed in order to add such capability to any multiphase finite volume hydrodynamic simulator within the simulation framework. We present 2D and 3D case studies benchmarking the performance of surrogates and "full physics" chemistry in scenarios pertaining the assessment of geological subsurface utilization. [1] Jatnieks, J., De Lucia, M., Dransch, D., Sips, M.: "Data-driven surrogate model approach for improving the performance of reactive transport simulations.", Energy Procedia 97, 2016, p. 447-453. [2] Kempka, T., Nakaten, B., De Lucia, M., Nakaten, N., Otto, C., Pohl, M., Chabab [Tillner], E., Kühn, M.: "Flexible Simulation Framework to Couple Processes in Complex 3D Models for Subsurface Utilization Assessment.", Energy Procedia, 97, 2016 p. 494-501.

Spatially distributed modelling of pesticide leaching at European scale with the PyCatch modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Oliver; van der Perk, Marcel; Karssenberg, Derek; Häring, Tim; Jene, Bernhard

2017-04-01

The modelling of pesticide transport through the soil and estimating its leaching to groundwater is essential for an appropriate environmental risk assessment. Pesticide leaching models commonly used in regulatory processes often lack the capability of providing a comprehensive spatial view, as they are implemented as non-spatial point models or only use a few combinations of representative soils to simulate specific plots. Furthermore, their handling of spatial input and output data and interaction with available Geographical Information Systems tools is limited. Therefore, executing several scenarios simulating and assessing the potential leaching on national or continental scale at high resolution is rather inefficient and prohibits the straightforward identification of areas prone to leaching. We present a new pesticide leaching model component of the PyCatch framework developed in PCRaster Python, an environmental modelling framework tailored to the development of spatio-temporal models (http://www.pcraster.eu). To ensure a feasible computational runtime of large scale models, we implemented an elementary field capacity approach to model soil water. Currently implemented processes are evapotranspiration, advection, dispersion, sorption, degradation and metabolite transformation. Not yet implemented relevant additional processes such as surface runoff, snowmelt, erosion or other lateral flows can be integrated with components already implemented in PyCatch. A preliminary version of the model executes a 20-year simulation of soil water processes for Germany (20 soil layers, 1 km2 spatial resolution, and daily timestep) within half a day using a single CPU. A comparison of the soil moisture and outflow obtained from the PCRaster implementation and PELMO, a commonly used pesticide leaching model, resulted in an R2 of 0.98 for the FOCUS Hamburg scenario. We will further discuss the validation of the pesticide transport processes and show case studies applied to European countries.

Assessing habitat connectivity for ground-dwelling animals in an urban environment.

PubMed

Braaker, S; Moretti, M; Boesch, R; Ghazoul, J; Obrist, M K; Bontadina, F

To ensure viable species populations in fragmented landscapes, individuals must be able to move between suitable habitat patches. Despite the increased interest in biodiversity assessment in urban environments, the ecological relevance of habitat connectivity in highly fragmented landscapes remains largely unknown. The first step to understanding the role of habitat connectivity in urban ecology is the challenging task of assessing connectivity in the complex patchwork of contrasting habitats that is found in cities. We developed a data-based framework, minimizing the use of subjective assumptions, to assess habitat connectivity that consists of the following sequential steps: (1) identification of habitat preference based on empirical habitat-use data; (2) derivation of habitat resistance surfaces evaluating various transformation functions; (3) modeling of different connectivity maps with electrical circuit theory (Circuitscape), a method considering all possible pathways across the landscape simultaneously; and (4) identification of the best connectivity map with information-theoretic model selection. We applied this analytical framework to assess habitat connectivity for the European hedgehog Erinaceus europaeus, a model species for ground-dwelling animals, in the city of Zurich, Switzerland, using GPS track points from 40 individuals. The best model revealed spatially explicit connectivity “pinch points,” as well as multiple habitat connections. Cross-validation indicated the general validity of the selected connectivity model. The results show that both habitat connectivity and habitat quality affect the movement of urban hedgehogs (relative importance of the two variables was 19.2% and 80.8%, respectively), and are thus both relevant for predicting urban animal movements. Our study demonstrates that even in the complex habitat patchwork of cities, habitat connectivity plays a major role for ground-dwelling animal movement. Data-based habitat connectivity maps can thus serve as an important tool for city planners to identify habitat corridors and plan appropriate management and conservation measures for urban animals. The analytical framework we describe to model such connectivity maps is generally applicable to different types of habitat-use data and can be adapted to the movement scale of the focal species. It also allows evaluation of the impact of future landscape changes or management scenarios on habitat connectivity in urban landscapes.

Implementing and evaluating a professional practice framework in child and family health nursing: a pilot project.

PubMed

Guest, Eileen M; Keatinge, Diana R; Reed, Jennifer; Johnson, Karen R; Higgins, Helen M; Greig, Jennifer

2013-09-01

This paper describes the implementation and evaluation of the NSW Child and Family Health Nursing Professional Practice Framework in one health district in New South Wales, Australia. Child and family health nurses provide specialised, community based primary health care to families with children 0-5 years. A state wide professional practice framework was recently developed to support child and family health nurses. Online learning, clinical practice consultancies and skill assessments related to routine infant and child health surveillance were developed and implemented. Child and family health nurse reviewers gained competency in the various education and assessment components. Reviewers replicated this process in partnership with 21 child and family health nurses from two rural and one regional cluster. Evaluation questionnaires and focus groups were held with stakeholder groups. Participation provided nurses with affirmation of clinical practice and competency. Education and assessment processes were user friendly and particularly helpful for rural and remote nurses. Managers reported greater confidence in staff competence following project participation. Detailed planning and consultation is recommended before implementation of the Framework. Online learning, skills assessments and model of clinical practice consultancies were identified as central to ongoing orientation, education and professional development. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Framework development for the assessment of interprofessional teamwork in mental health settings.

PubMed

Tomizawa, Ryoko; Shigeta, Masahiro; Reeves, Scott

2017-01-01

In mental health settings, interprofessional practice is regarded as a comprehensive approach to prevent relapse and manage chronic conditions with practice of various teamwork interventions. To reinforce the potential of interprofessional teamwork, it is recommended that theories or conceptual frameworks be employed. There continues, however, to be a limited use of such approaches that assess the quality of interprofessional teamwork in mental health settings. This article aimed to present a new conceptual framework for the assessment of interprofessional teamwork based on the findings of a scoping review of the literature. This review was undertaken to identify conceptual frameworks utilised in interprofessional teamwork in mental health settings. After reviewing 952 articles, the methodological characteristics extracted from 12 articles were considered. The included studies were synthesised into the Donabedian structure-process-outcome model. The findings revealed that structural issues comprised three elements: professional characteristics, client-care characteristics, and contextual characteristics in organisations. Process issues comprised two elements: team mechanisms and community-oriented services. Finally, outcome issues comprised the following elements: clients' outcomes and professionals' outcomes. The review findings suggested possibilities for further development of how to assess the quality of interprofessional teamwork and provided information about what specific approach is required to improve interprofessional teamwork. Future research should utilise various areas and cultures to clarify the adaptation potential.

Task-based image quality assessment in radiation therapy: initial characterization and demonstration with CT simulation images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolly, Steven R.; Anastasio, Mark A.; Yu, Lifeng; Li, Hua

2017-03-01

In current radiation therapy practice, image quality is still assessed subjectively or by utilizing physically-based metrics. Recently, a methodology for objective task-based image quality (IQ) assessment in radiation therapy was proposed by Barrett et al.1 In this work, we present a comprehensive implementation and evaluation of this new IQ assessment methodology. A modular simulation framework was designed to perform an automated, computer-simulated end-to-end radiation therapy treatment. A fully simulated framework was created that utilizes new learning-based stochastic object models (SOM) to obtain known organ boundaries, generates a set of images directly from the numerical phantoms created with the SOM, and automates the image segmentation and treatment planning steps of a radiation therapy work ow. By use of this computational framework, therapeutic operating characteristic (TOC) curves can be computed and the area under the TOC curve (AUTOC) can be employed as a figure-of-merit to guide optimization of different components of the treatment planning process. The developed computational framework is employed to optimize X-ray CT pre-treatment imaging. We demonstrate that use of the radiation therapy-based-based IQ measures lead to different imaging parameters than obtained by use of physical-based measures.

Towards Integrated Health Technology Assessment for Improving Decision Making in Selected Countries.

PubMed

Oortwijn, Wija; Determann, Domino; Schiffers, Krijn; Tan, Siok Swan; van der Tuin, Jeroen

2017-09-01

To assess the level of comprehensiveness of health technology assessment (HTA) practices around the globe and to formulate recommendations for enhancing legitimacy and fairness of related decision-making processes. To identify best practices, we developed an evaluation framework consisting of 13 criteria on the basis of the INTEGRATE-HTA model (integrative perspective on assessing health technologies) and the Accountability for Reasonableness framework (deliberative appraisal process). We examined different HTA systems in middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Thailand) and high-income countries (Australia, Canada, England, France, Germany, Scotland, and South Korea). For this purpose, desk research and structured interviews with relevant key stakeholders (N = 32) in the selected countries were conducted. HTA systems in Canada, England, and Scotland appear relatively well aligned with our framework, followed by Australia, Germany, and France. Argentina and South Korea are at an early stage, whereas Brazil and Thailand are at an intermediate level. Both desk research and interviews revealed that scoping is often not part of the HTA process. In contrast, providing evidence reports for assessment is well established. Indirect and unintended outcomes are increasingly considered, but there is room for improvement. Monitoring and evaluation of the HTA process is not well established across countries. Finally, adopting transparent and robust processes, including stakeholder consultation, takes time. This study presents a framework for assessing the level of comprehensiveness of the HTA process in a country. On the basis of applying the framework, we formulate recommendations on how the HTA community can move toward a more integrated decision-making process using HTA. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A SOIL SPATIAL DATA FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING IN THE CONTIGUOUS US

EPA Science Inventory

A suite of soil and related data-layers have been developed for environmental assessments of the effects of tropospheric ozone exposure and nitrogen deposition on forests, and global change (soil C pools and landuse impacts, water balance modeling). These spatial data depict s...

The Organizational Values of "Gimnazija" in Slovenia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pang, Nicholas Sun-Keung

2006-01-01

This article assesses the organizational values of "gimnazija" in Slovenia and examines the factors that contribute to the building of quality management. The theoretical framework is built on Schein's model of levels of culture, Sathe's interpretation of organizational culture and Getzels and Guba's model of organizational behaviour.…

How Can Biologically-Based Modeling of Arsenic Kinetics and Dynamics Inform the Risk Assessment Process? -- ETD

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative biologically-based models describing key events in the continuum from arsenic exposure to the development of adverse health effects provide a framework to integrate information obtained across diverse research areas. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic me...

Selection Criteria for Mathematical Models Used in Exposure Assessments: Atmospheric Dispersion Models

EPA Science Inventory

Before the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued the 1988 Guidelines for Estimating Exposures, it published proposed guidelines in the Federal Register for public review and comment. he guidelines are intended to give risk analysis a basic framework and the tools they need ...

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

The Impact of Model Misspecification on Parameter Estimation and Item-Fit Assessment in Log-Linear Diagnostic Classification Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kunina-Habenicht, Olga; Rupp, Andre A.; Wilhelm, Oliver

2012-01-01

Using a complex simulation study we investigated parameter recovery, classification accuracy, and performance of two item-fit statistics for correct and misspecified diagnostic classification models within a log-linear modeling framework. The basic manipulated test design factors included the number of respondents (1,000 vs. 10,000), attributes (3…

Statement on nursing: a personal perspective.

PubMed

McCutcheon, Tonna

2004-01-01

Contemporary nursing is based on a conglomerate of theoretical nursing models. These models each incorporate four central concepts: person, health, environment, and nursing. By defining these concepts, nurses develop an individual framework from which they base their nursing practice. As an aspiring nurse practitioner in the gastroenterology field, I have retrospectively assessed my personal definitions of person, health, environment, and nursing. From these definitions, I am able to incorporate specific theoretical frameworks into my personal belief system, thus formulating a basis for my nursing practice. This foundation is comprised of the influence of nursing theorists Jean Watson, Sister Callista Roy, Kolcaba, Florence Nightingale, and Ida J. Orlando; the Perioperative Patient-Focused Model; Watson's Theory of Human Caring; theories regarding transpersonal human caring and healing; and feminist theories. Therefore, this article describes self-examination of nursing care by defining central nursing concepts, acknowledging the influence of nursing theorists and theories, and developing a personal framework from which I base my nursing practice.

A Bayesian Uncertainty Framework for Conceptual Snowmelt and Hydrologic Models Applied to the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T.; Marshall, L.

2007-12-01

In many mountainous regions, the single most important parameter in forecasting the controls on regional water resources is snowpack (Williams et al., 1999). In an effort to bridge the gap between theoretical understanding and functional modeling of snow-driven watersheds, a flexible hydrologic modeling framework is being developed. The aim is to create a suite of models that move from parsimonious structures, concentrated on aggregated watershed response, to those focused on representing finer scale processes and distributed response. This framework will operate as a tool to investigate the link between hydrologic model predictive performance, uncertainty, model complexity, and observable hydrologic processes. Bayesian methods, and particularly Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, are extremely useful in uncertainty assessment and parameter estimation of hydrologic models. However, these methods have some difficulties in implementation. In a traditional Bayesian setting, it can be difficult to reconcile multiple data types, particularly those offering different spatial and temporal coverage, depending on the model type. These difficulties are also exacerbated by sensitivity of MCMC algorithms to model initialization and complex parameter interdependencies. As a way of circumnavigating some of the computational complications, adaptive MCMC algorithms have been developed to take advantage of the information gained from each successive iteration. Two adaptive algorithms are compared is this study, the Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2001), and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2006). While neither algorithm is truly Markovian, it has been proven that each satisfies the desired ergodicity and stationarity properties of Markov chains. Both algorithms were implemented as the uncertainty and parameter estimation framework for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), developed by Moore (1985). We implement the modeling framework in Stringer Creek watershed in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (TCEF), Montana. The snowmelt-driven watershed offers that additional challenge of modeling snow accumulation and melt and current efforts are aimed at developing a temperature- and radiation-index snowmelt model. Auxiliary data available from within TCEF's watersheds are used to support in the understanding of information value as it relates to predictive performance. Because the model is based on lumped parameters, auxiliary data are hard to incorporate directly. However, these additional data offer benefits through the ability to inform prior distributions of the lumped, model parameters. By incorporating data offering different information into the uncertainty assessment process, a cross-validation technique is engaged to better ensure that modeled results reflect real process complexity.

Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Knowlton, Kim; Rosenthal, Joyce E.; Hogrefe, Christian; Lynn, Barry; Gaffin, Stuart; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Civerolo, Kevin; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Kinney, Patrick L.

2004-01-01

Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4° × 5° resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change. PMID:15531442

Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

PubMed

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-06-01

Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment in Italy: A Methodological Proposal Adapted to Regulatory Guidelines

PubMed Central

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-01-01

Background Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. Methods After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. Results We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. Conclusion This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons. PMID:23961332

A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Waldhoff, S.; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, J.; Jantarasami, L.; Shouse, K.; Crimmins, A.; Li, J.

2014-12-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the physical impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change. The primary goal of this framework is to estimate the degree to which climate change impacts and damages in the United States are avoided or reduced in the 21st century under multiple greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. The first phase of the CIRA project is a modeling exercise that included two integrated assessment models and 15 sectoral models encompassing five broad impacts sectors: water resources, electric power, infrastructure, human health, and ecosystems. Three consistent socioeconomic and climate scenarios are used to analyze the benefits of global GHG mitigation targets: a reference scenario and two policy scenarios with total radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2. In this exercise, the implications of key uncertainties are explored, including climate sensitivity, climate model, natural variability, and model structures and parameters. This presentation describes the motivations and goals of the CIRA project; the design and academic contribution of the first CIRA modeling exercise; and briefly summarizes several papers published in a special issue of Climatic Change. The results across impact sectors show that GHG mitigation provides benefits to the United States that increase over time, the effects of climate change can be strongly influenced by near-term policy choices, adaptation can reduce net damages, and impacts exhibit spatial and temporal patterns that may inform mitigation and adaptation policy discussions.

A new framework for designing programmes of assessment

PubMed Central

Van der Vleuten, C. P. M.; Schuwirth, L. W. T.

2009-01-01

Research on assessment in medical education has strongly focused on individual measurement instruments and their psychometric quality. Without detracting from the value of this research, such an approach is not sufficient to high quality assessment of competence as a whole. A programmatic approach is advocated which presupposes criteria for designing comprehensive assessment programmes and for assuring their quality. The paucity of research with relevance to programmatic assessment, and especially its development, prompted us to embark on a research project to develop design principles for programmes of assessment. We conducted focus group interviews to explore the experiences and views of nine assessment experts concerning good practices and new ideas about theoretical and practical issues in programmes of assessment. The discussion was analysed, mapping all aspects relevant for design onto a framework, which was iteratively adjusted to fit the data until saturation was reached. The overarching framework for designing programmes of assessment consists of six assessment programme dimensions: Goals, Programme in Action, Support, Documenting, Improving and Accounting. The model described in this paper can help to frame programmes of assessment; it not only provides a common language, but also a comprehensive picture of the dimensions to be covered when formulating design principles. It helps identifying areas concerning assessment in which ample research and development has been done. But, more importantly, it also helps to detect underserved areas. A guiding principle in design of assessment programmes is fitness for purpose. High quality assessment can only be defined in terms of its goals. PMID:19821042

A new framework for designing programmes of assessment.

PubMed

Dijkstra, J; Van der Vleuten, C P M; Schuwirth, L W T

2010-08-01

Research on assessment in medical education has strongly focused on individual measurement instruments and their psychometric quality. Without detracting from the value of this research, such an approach is not sufficient to high quality assessment of competence as a whole. A programmatic approach is advocated which presupposes criteria for designing comprehensive assessment programmes and for assuring their quality. The paucity of research with relevance to programmatic assessment, and especially its development, prompted us to embark on a research project to develop design principles for programmes of assessment. We conducted focus group interviews to explore the experiences and views of nine assessment experts concerning good practices and new ideas about theoretical and practical issues in programmes of assessment. The discussion was analysed, mapping all aspects relevant for design onto a framework, which was iteratively adjusted to fit the data until saturation was reached. The overarching framework for designing programmes of assessment consists of six assessment programme dimensions: Goals, Programme in Action, Support, Documenting, Improving and Accounting. The model described in this paper can help to frame programmes of assessment; it not only provides a common language, but also a comprehensive picture of the dimensions to be covered when formulating design principles. It helps identifying areas concerning assessment in which ample research and development has been done. But, more importantly, it also helps to detect underserved areas. A guiding principle in design of assessment programmes is fitness for purpose. High quality assessment can only be defined in terms of its goals.

A comparison of fit of CNC-milled titanium and zirconia frameworks to implants.

PubMed

Abduo, Jaafar; Lyons, Karl; Waddell, Neil; Bennani, Vincent; Swain, Michael

2012-05-01

Computer numeric controlled (CNC) milling was proven to be predictable method to fabricate accurately fitting implant titanium frameworks. However, no data are available regarding the fit of CNC-milled implant zirconia frameworks. To compare the precision of fit of implant frameworks milled from titanium and zirconia and relate it to peri-implant strain development after framework fixation. A partially edentulous epoxy resin models received two Branemark implants in the areas of the lower left second premolar and second molar. From this model, 10 identical frameworks were fabricated by mean of CNC milling. Half of them were made from titanium and the other half from zirconia. Strain gauges were mounted close to the implants to qualitatively and quantitatively assess strain development as a result of framework fitting. In addition, the fit of the framework implant interface was measured using an optical microscope, when only one screw was tightened (passive fit) and when all screws were tightened (vertical fit). The data was statistically analyzed using the Mann-Whitney test. All frameworks produced measurable amounts of peri-implant strain. The zirconia frameworks produced significantly less strain than titanium. Combining the qualitative and quantitative information indicates that the implants were under vertical displacement rather than horizontal. The vertical fit was similar for zirconia (3.7 µm) and titanium (3.6 µm) frameworks; however, the zirconia frameworks exhibited a significantly finer passive fit (5.5 µm) than titanium frameworks (13.6 µm). CNC milling produced zirconia and titanium frameworks with high accuracy. The difference between the two materials in terms of fit is expected to be of minimal clinical significance. The strain developed around the implants was more related to the framework fit rather than framework material. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

20th Annual Systems Engineering Conference, Thursday, Volume 4

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-26

Daniel Dault, Air Force Research Lab 19809 Physics Based Modeling & Simulation For Shock and Vulnerability Assessments - Navy Enhanced Sierra...19811 Version 1.0 of the New INCOSE Competency Framework u Mr. Don Gelosh 19515 A Proposed Engineering Training Framework and Competency Methodology...nonlinearity ▪ QEV, Transient, Frequency Domain ▪ Inverse Methods Capability ▪ Coupled Physics ▪ Fluids: nemo, aero and sigma ▪ Thermal (unidirection): fuego

Bridging the gap between life cycle inventory and impact assessment for toxicological assessments of pesticides used in crop production.

PubMed

van Zelm, Rosalie; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Roux, Philippe

2014-04-01

In Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) provides emission data to the various environmental compartments and Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) determines the final distribution, fate and effects. Due to the overlap between the Technosphere (anthropogenic system) and Ecosphere (environment) in agricultural case studies, it is, however, complicated to establish what LCI needs to capture and where LCIA takes over. This paper aims to provide guidance and improvements of LCI/LCIA boundary definitions, in the dimensions of space and time. For this, a literature review was conducted to provide a clear overview of available methods and models for both LCI and LCIA regarding toxicological assessments of pesticides used in crop production. Guidelines are provided to overcome the gaps between LCI and LCIA modeling, and prevent the overlaps in their respective operational spheres. The proposed framework provides a starting point for LCA practitioners to gather the right data and use the proper models to include all relevant emission and exposure routes where possible. It is also able to predict a clear distinction between efficient and inefficient management practices (e.g. using different application rates, washing and rinsing management, etc.). By applying this framework for toxicological assessments of pesticides, LCI and LCIA can be directly linked, removing any overlaps or gaps in between the two distinct LCA steps. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing the Hydrological Coherence of High-Resolution Gridded Precipitation and Temperature Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laiti, L.; Mallucci, S.; Piccolroaz, S.; Bellin, A.; Zardi, D.; Fiori, A.; Nikulin, G.; Majone, B.

2018-03-01

Assessing the accuracy of gridded climate data sets is highly relevant to climate change impact studies, since evaluation, bias correction, and statistical downscaling of climate models commonly use these products as reference. Among all impact studies those addressing hydrological fluxes are the most affected by errors and biases plaguing these data. This paper introduces a framework, coined Hydrological Coherence Test (HyCoT), for assessing the hydrological coherence of gridded data sets with hydrological observations. HyCoT provides a framework for excluding meteorological forcing data sets not complying with observations, as function of the particular goal at hand. The proposed methodology allows falsifying the hypothesis that a given data set is coherent with hydrological observations on the basis of the performance of hydrological modeling measured by a metric selected by the modeler. HyCoT is demonstrated in the Adige catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) for streamflow analysis, using a distributed hydrological model. The comparison covers the period 1989-2008 and includes five gridded daily meteorological data sets: E-OBS, MSWEP, MESAN, APGD, and ADIGE. The analysis highlights that APGD and ADIGE, the data sets with highest effective resolution, display similar spatiotemporal precipitation patterns and produce the largest hydrological efficiency indices. Lower performances are observed for E-OBS, MESAN, and MSWEP, especially in small catchments. HyCoT reveals deficiencies in the representation of spatiotemporal patterns of gridded climate data sets, which cannot be corrected by simply rescaling the meteorological forcing fields, as often done in bias correction of climate model outputs. We recommend this framework to assess the hydrological coherence of gridded data sets to be used in large-scale hydroclimatic studies.

Analytical method of waste allocation in waste management systems: Concept, method and case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bergeron, Francis C., E-mail: francis.b.c@videotron.ca

Waste is not a rejected item to dispose anymore but increasingly a secondary resource to exploit, influencing waste allocation among treatment operations in a waste management (WM) system. The aim of this methodological paper is to present a new method for the assessment of the WM system, the “analytical method of the waste allocation process” (AMWAP), based on the concept of the “waste allocation process” defined as the aggregation of all processes of apportioning waste among alternative waste treatment operations inside or outside the spatial borders of a WM system. AMWAP contains a conceptual framework and an analytical approach. Themore » conceptual framework includes, firstly, a descriptive model that focuses on the description and classification of the WM system. It includes, secondly, an explanatory model that serves to explain and to predict the operation of the WM system. The analytical approach consists of a step-by-step analysis for the empirical implementation of the conceptual framework. With its multiple purposes, AMWAP provides an innovative and objective modular method to analyse a WM system which may be integrated in the framework of impact assessment methods and environmental systems analysis tools. Its originality comes from the interdisciplinary analysis of the WAP and to develop the conceptual framework. AMWAP is applied in the framework of an illustrative case study on the household WM system of Geneva (Switzerland). It demonstrates that this method provides an in-depth and contextual knowledge of WM. - Highlights: • The study presents a new analytical method based on the waste allocation process. • The method provides an in-depth and contextual knowledge of the waste management system. • The paper provides a reproducible procedure for professionals, experts and academics. • It may be integrated into impact assessment or environmental system analysis tools. • An illustrative case study is provided based on household waste management in Geneva.« less

An Integrated Ensemble-Based Operational Framework to Predict Urban Flooding: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Wang, Y.

2016-12-01

Advances in computational resources and modeling techniques are opening the path to effectively integrate existing complex models. In the context of flood prediction, recent extreme events have demonstrated the importance of integrating components of the hydrosystem to better represent the interactions amongst different physical processes and phenomena. As such, there is a pressing need to develop holistic and cross-disciplinary modeling frameworks that effectively integrate existing models and better represent the operative dynamics. This work presents a novel Hydrologic-Hydraulic-Hydrodynamic Ensemble (H3E) flood prediction framework that operationally integrates existing predictive models representing coastal (New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System, NYHOPS), hydrologic (US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (2-dimensional River Analysis System, HEC-RAS) components. The state-of-the-art framework is forced with 125 ensemble meteorological inputs from numerical weather prediction models including the Global Ensemble Forecast System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The framework produces, within a 96-hour forecast horizon, on-the-fly Google Earth flood maps that provide critical information for decision makers and emergency preparedness managers. The utility of the framework was demonstrated by retrospectively forecasting an extreme flood event, hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack watersheds (New Jersey, USA). Hurricane Sandy caused significant damage to a number of critical facilities in this area including the New Jersey Transit's main storage and maintenance facility. The results of this work demonstrate that ensemble based frameworks provide improved flood predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks as when compared to a deterministic forecast. The work offers perspectives for short-term flood forecasts, flood mitigation strategies and best management practices for climate change scenarios.

The utility of Cox's Interaction Model to direct the assessment and prevention of adolescent aggression.

PubMed

DiNapoli, Pamela Pershing

2003-02-01

The current study of violence prevention is hampered by a lack of consensus on the definition of violence. There is, however, some agreement about the behavioral cues that may predict violent behavior such as aggression. Although it has been shown that individual-level variables (e.g., race, gender, and ethnicity) are correlated with aggressive behavior, it is clear that they alone are not explanatory of aggressive behavior. This article demonstrates how the Interaction Model of Client Health Behavior is an important health behavior framework for the assessment of aggression in adolescents, offering insight into the contextual nature of adolescent aggression. Victimization and witnessing of violence, frequently identified to be precursors of adolescent aggression in current epidemiologic studies, are examined within this framework. On the basis of the interactional nature of the phenomenon, necessary components for successful prevention programs are suggested. Finally, future research implications calling for a well-designed study that integrates individual and contextual variables with the use of this theory-driven explanatory framework are proposed. Copyright 2003, Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

A comparative framework for maneuverability and gust tolerance of aerial microsystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Renee

Aerial microsystems have the potential of navigating low-altitude, cluttered environments such as urban corridors and building interiors. Reliable systems require both agility and tolerance to gusts. While many platform designs are under development, no framework currently exists to quantitatively assess these inherent bare airframe characteristics which are independent of closed loop controllers. This research develops a method to quantify the maneuverability and gust tolerance of vehicles using reachability and disturbance sensitivity sets. The method is applied to a stable flybar helicopter and an unstable flybarless helicopter, whose state space models were formed through system identification. Model-based static H∞ controllers were also implemented on the vehicles and tested in the lab using fan-generated gusts. It is shown that the flybar restricts the bare airframe's ability to maneuver in translational velocity directions. As such, the flybarless helicopter proved more maneuverable and gust tolerant than the flybar helicopter. This approach was specifically applied here to compare stable and unstable helicopter platforms; however, the framework may be used to assess a broad range of aerial microsystems.

Causal assessment of surrogacy in a meta-analysis of colorectal cancer trials

PubMed Central

Li, Yun; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.; Elliott, Michael R.; Sargent, Daniel J.

2011-01-01

When the true end points (T) are difficult or costly to measure, surrogate markers (S) are often collected in clinical trials to help predict the effect of the treatment (Z). There is great interest in understanding the relationship among S, T, and Z. A principal stratification (PS) framework has been proposed by Frangakis and Rubin (2002) to study their causal associations. In this paper, we extend the framework to a multiple trial setting and propose a Bayesian hierarchical PS model to assess surrogacy. We apply the method to data from a large collection of colon cancer trials in which S and T are binary. We obtain the trial-specific causal measures among S, T, and Z, as well as their overall population-level counterparts that are invariant across trials. The method allows for information sharing across trials and reduces the nonidentifiability problem. We examine the frequentist properties of our model estimates and the impact of the monotonicity assumption using simulations. We also illustrate the challenges in evaluating surrogacy in the counterfactual framework that result from nonidentifiability. PMID:21252079

Monitoring and modeling as a continuing learning process: the use of hydrological models in a general probabilistic framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baroni, G.; Gräff, T.; Reinstorf, F.; Oswald, S. E.

2012-04-01

Nowadays uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are considered basic tools for the assessment of hydrological models and the evaluation of the most important sources of uncertainty. In this context, in the last decades several methods have been developed and applied in different hydrological conditions. However, in most of the cases, the studies have been done by investigating mainly the influence of the parameter uncertainty on the simulated outputs and few approaches tried to consider also other sources of uncertainty i.e. input and model structure. Moreover, several constrains arise when spatially distributed parameters are involved. To overcome these limitations a general probabilistic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations and the Sobol method has been proposed. In this study, the general probabilistic framework was applied at field scale using a 1D physical-based hydrological model (SWAP). Furthermore, the framework was extended at catchment scale in combination with a spatially distributed hydrological model (SHETRAN). The models are applied in two different experimental sites in Germany: a relatively flat cropped field close to Potsdam (Brandenburg) and a small mountainous catchment with agricultural land use (Schaefertal, Harz Mountains). For both cases, input and parameters are considered as major sources of uncertainty. Evaluation of the models was based on soil moisture detected at plot scale in different depths and, for the catchment site, also with daily discharge values. The study shows how the framework can take into account all the various sources of uncertainty i.e. input data, parameters (either in scalar or spatially distributed form) and model structures. The framework can be used in a loop in order to optimize further monitoring activities used to improve the performance of the model. In the particular applications, the results show how the sources of uncertainty are specific for each process considered. The influence of the input data as well as the presence of compensating errors become clear by the different processes simulated.

Integrated watershed- and farm-scale modeling framework for targeting critical source areas while maintaining farm economic viability.

PubMed

Ghebremichael, Lula T; Veith, Tamie L; Hamlett, James M

2013-01-15

Quantitative risk assessments of pollution and data related to the effectiveness of mitigating best management practices (BMPs) are important aspects of nonpoint source pollution control efforts, particularly those driven by specific water quality objectives and by measurable improvement goals, such as the total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements. Targeting critical source areas (CSAs) that generate disproportionately high pollutant loads within a watershed is a crucial step in successfully controlling nonpoint source pollution. The importance of watershed simulation models in assisting with the quantitative assessments of CSAs of pollution (relative to their magnitudes and extents) and of the effectiveness of associated BMPs has been well recognized. However, due to the distinct disconnect between the hydrological scale in which these models conduct their evaluation and the farm scale at which feasible BMPs are actually selected and implemented, and due to the difficulty and uncertainty involved in transferring watershed model data to farm fields, there are limited practical applications of these tools in the current nonpoint source pollution control efforts by conservation specialists for delineating CSAs and planning targeting measures. There are also limited approaches developed that can assess impacts of CSA-targeted BMPs on farm productivity and profitability together with the assessment of water quality improvements expected from applying these measures. This study developed a modeling framework that integrates farm economics and environmental aspects (such as identification and mitigation of CSAs) through joint use of watershed- and farm-scale models in a closed feedback loop. The integration of models in a closed feedback loop provides a way for environmental changes to be evaluated with regard to the impact on the practical aspects of farm management and economics, adjusted or reformulated as necessary, and revaluated with respect to effectiveness of environmental mitigation at the farm- and watershed-levels. This paper also outlines steps needed to extract important CSA-related information from a watershed model to help inform targeting decisions at the farm scale. The modeling framework is demonstrated with two unique case studies in the northeastern United States (New York and Vermont), with supporting data from numerous published, location-specific studies at both the watershed and farm scales. Using the integrated modeling framework, it can be possible to compare the costs (in terms of changes required in farm system components or financial compensations for retiring crop lands) and benefits (in terms of measurable water quality improvement goals) of implementing targeted BMPs. This multi-scale modeling approach can be used in the multi-objective task of mitigating CSAs of pollution to meet water quality goals while maintaining farm-level economic viability. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An overview of the model integration process: From pre ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Integration of models requires linking models which can be developed using different tools, methodologies, and assumptions. We performed a literature review with the aim of improving our understanding of model integration process, and also presenting better strategies for building integrated modeling systems. We identified five different phases to characterize integration process: pre-integration assessment, preparation of models for integration, orchestration of models during simulation, data interoperability, and testing. Commonly, there is little reuse of existing frameworks beyond the development teams and not much sharing of science components across frameworks. We believe this must change to enable researchers and assessors to form complex workflows that leverage the current environmental science available. In this paper, we characterize the model integration process and compare integration practices of different groups. We highlight key strategies, features, standards, and practices that can be employed by developers to increase reuse and interoperability of science software components and systems. The paper provides a review of the literature regarding techniques and methods employed by various modeling system developers to facilitate science software interoperability. The intent of the paper is to illustrate the wide variation in methods and the limiting effect the variation has on inter-framework reuse and interoperability. A series of recommendation

Measuring patient-perceived hospital service quality: a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Pai, Yogesh P; Chary, Satyanarayana T

2016-04-18

Purpose - Although measuring healthcare service quality is not a new phenomenon, the instruments used to measure are timeworn. With the shift in focus to patient centric processes in hospitals and recognizing healthcare to be different compared to other services, service quality measurement needs to be tuned specifically to healthcare. The purpose of this paper is to design a conceptual framework for measuring patient perceived hospital service quality (HSQ), based on existing service quality literature. Design/methodology/approach - Using HSQ theories, expanding existing healthcare service models and literature, a conceptual framework is proposed to measure HSQ. The paper outlines patient perceived service quality dimensions. Findings - An instrument for measuring HSQ dimensions is developed and compared with other service quality measuring instruments. The latest dimensions are in line with previous studies, but a relationship dimension is added. Practical implications - The framework empowers managers to assess healthcare quality in corporate, public and teaching hospitals. Originality/value - The paper helps academics and practitioners to assess HSQ from a patient perspective.

Southern Forest Resource Assessment Using the Subregional Timber Supply (SRTS) Model

Treesearch

Robert C. Abt; Frederick W. Cubbage; Gerardo Pacheco

2000-01-01

Most timber supply analyses are focused on broad regions. This paper describes a modeling system that uses a standard empirical framework applied to subregional inventory data in the South. Model results indicate significant within-region variation in supply responses across owners and regions. Projections of southern timber markets indicate that results are sensitive...

Development of an Electronic Portfolio System Success Model: An Information Systems Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balaban, Igor; Mu, Enrique; Divjak, Blazenka

2013-01-01

This research has two main goals: to develop an instrument for assessing Electronic Portfolio (ePortfolio) success and to build a corresponding ePortfolio success model using DeLone and McLean's information systems success model as the theoretical framework. For this purpose, we developed an ePortfolio success measurement instrument and structural…

Bayesian Networks in Educational Assessment

PubMed Central

Culbertson, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Bayesian networks (BN) provide a convenient and intuitive framework for specifying complex joint probability distributions and are thus well suited for modeling content domains of educational assessments at a diagnostic level. BN have been used extensively in the artificial intelligence community as student models for intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) but have received less attention among psychometricians. This critical review outlines the existing research on BN in educational assessment, providing an introduction to the ITS literature for the psychometric community, and points out several promising research paths. The online appendix lists 40 assessment systems that serve as empirical examples of the use of BN for educational assessment in a variety of domains. PMID:29881033

'Healthy Eating and Lifestyle in Pregnancy (HELP)' trial: Process evaluation framework.

PubMed

Simpson, Sharon A; Cassidy, Dunla; John, Elinor

2014-07-01

We developed and tested in a cluster RCT a theory-driven group-based intervention for obese pregnant women. It was designed to support women to moderate weight gain during pregnancy and reduce BMI one year after birth, in addition to targeting secondary health and wellbeing outcomes. In line with MRC guidance on developing and evaluating complex interventions in health, we conducted a process evaluation alongside the trial. This paper describes the development of the process evaluation framework. This cluster RCT recruited 598 pregnant women. Women in the intervention group were invited to attend a weekly weight-management group. Following a review of relevant literature, we developed a process evaluation framework which outlined key process indicators that we wanted to address and how we would measure these. Central to the process evaluation was to understand the mechanism of effect of the intervention. We utilised a logic-modelling approach to describe the intervention which helped us focus on what potential mediators of intervention effect to measure, and how. The resulting process evaluation framework was designed to address 9 core elements; context, reach, exposure, recruitment, fidelity, recruitment, retention, contamination and theory-testing. These were assessed using a variety of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The logic model explained the processes by which intervention components bring about change in target outcomes through various mediators and theoretical pathways including self-efficacy, social support, self-regulation and motivation. Process evaluation is a key element in assessing the effect of any RCT. We developed a process evaluation framework and logic model, and the results of analyses using these will offer insights into why the intervention is or is not effective. Copyright © 2014.

Comparative analysis on the selection of number of clusters in community detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamoto, Tatsuro; Kabashima, Yoshiyuki

2018-02-01

We conduct a comparative analysis on various estimates of the number of clusters in community detection. An exhaustive comparison requires testing of all possible combinations of frameworks, algorithms, and assessment criteria. In this paper we focus on the framework based on a stochastic block model, and investigate the performance of greedy algorithms, statistical inference, and spectral methods. For the assessment criteria, we consider modularity, map equation, Bethe free energy, prediction errors, and isolated eigenvalues. From the analysis, the tendency of overfit and underfit that the assessment criteria and algorithms have becomes apparent. In addition, we propose that the alluvial diagram is a suitable tool to visualize statistical inference results and can be useful to determine the number of clusters.

A new fit-for-purpose model testing framework: Decision Crash Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James

2016-04-01

Decision-makers in water resources are often burdened with selecting appropriate multi-million dollar strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate or land use change. Unfortunately, the suitability of existing hydrologic simulation models to accurately inform decision-making is in doubt because the testing procedures used to evaluate model utility (i.e., model validation) are insufficient. For example, many authors have identified that a good standard framework for model testing called the Klemes Crash Tests (KCTs), which are the classic model validation procedures from Klemeš (1986) that Andréassian et al. (2009) rename as KCTs, have yet to become common practice in hydrology. Furthermore, Andréassian et al. (2009) claim that the progression of hydrological science requires widespread use of KCT and the development of new crash tests. Existing simulation (not forecasting) model testing procedures such as KCTs look backwards (checking for consistency between simulations and past observations) rather than forwards (explicitly assessing if the model is likely to support future decisions). We propose a fundamentally different, forward-looking, decision-oriented hydrologic model testing framework based upon the concept of fit-for-purpose model testing that we call Decision Crash Tests or DCTs. Key DCT elements are i) the model purpose (i.e., decision the model is meant to support) must be identified so that model outputs can be mapped to management decisions ii) the framework evaluates not just the selected hydrologic model but the entire suite of model-building decisions associated with model discretization, calibration etc. The framework is constructed to directly and quantitatively evaluate model suitability. The DCT framework is applied to a model building case study on the Grand River in Ontario, Canada. A hypothetical binary decision scenario is analysed (upgrade or not upgrade the existing flood control structure) under two different sets of model building decisions. In one case, we show the set of model building decisions has a low probability to correctly support the upgrade decision. In the other case, we show evidence suggesting another set of model building decisions has a high probability to correctly support the decision. The proposed DCT framework focuses on what model users typically care about: the management decision in question. The DCT framework will often be very strict and will produce easy to interpret results enabling clear unsuitability determinations. In the past, hydrologic modelling progress has necessarily meant new models and model building methods. Continued progress in hydrologic modelling requires finding clear evidence to motivate researchers to disregard unproductive models and methods and the DCT framework is built to produce this kind of evidence. References: Andréassian, V., C. Perrin, L. Berthet, N. Le Moine, J. Lerat, C. Loumagne, L. Oudin, T. Mathevet, M.-H. Ramos, and A. Valéry (2009), Crash tests for a standardized evaluation of hydrological models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 1757-1764. Klemeš, V. (1986), Operational testing of hydrological simulation models. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 31 (1), 13-24.

Estimate the effective connectivity in multi-coupled neural mass model using particle swarm optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Bonan; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin; Zhang, Zhen; Wei, Xile

2017-03-01

Assessment of the effective connectivity among different brain regions during seizure is a crucial problem in neuroscience today. As a consequence, a new model inversion framework of brain function imaging is introduced in this manuscript. This framework is based on approximating brain networks using a multi-coupled neural mass model (NMM). NMM describes the excitatory and inhibitory neural interactions, capturing the mechanisms involved in seizure initiation, evolution and termination. Particle swarm optimization method is used to estimate the effective connectivity variation (the parameters of NMM) and the epileptiform dynamics (the states of NMM) that cannot be directly measured using electrophysiological measurement alone. The estimated effective connectivity includes both the local connectivity parameters within a single region NMM and the remote connectivity parameters between multi-coupled NMMs. When the epileptiform activities are estimated, a proportional-integral controller outputs control signal so that the epileptiform spikes can be inhibited immediately. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. The framework and the results have a profound impact on the way we detect and treat epilepsy.

Methods for reducing biases and errors in regional photochemical model outputs for use in emission reduction and exposure assessments

EPA Science Inventory

In the United States, regional-scale photochemical models are being used to design emission control strategies needed to meet the relevant National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) within the framework of the attainment demonstration process. Previous studies have shown that...

SWAT ungauged: Hydrological budget and crop yield predictions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Physically based, distributed hydrologic models are increasingly used in assessments of water resources, best management practices, and climate and land use changes. Model performance evaluation in ungauged basins is an important research topic. In this study, we propose a framework for developing S...

Empirically-based modeling and mapping to consider the co-occurrence of ecological receptors and stressors

EPA Science Inventory

Part of the ecological risk assessment process involves examining the potential for environmental stressors and ecological receptors to co-occur across a landscape. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian joint modeling framework for use in evaluating and mapping the co-occurrence...

Weaving Together Science and English: An Interconnected Model of Language Development for Emergent Bilinguals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ciechanowski, Kathryn M.

2014-01-01

This research explores third-grade science and language instruction for emergent bilinguals designed through a framework of planning, lessons, and assessment in an interconnected model including content, linguistic features, and functions. Participants were a team of language specialist, classroom teacher, and researcher who designed…

Development of a Computational (in silico) Model of Ocular Teratogenesis

EPA Science Inventory

EPA’s ToxCast™ project is profiling the in vitro bioactivity of chemical compounds to assess pathway-level and cell-based signatures that are highly correlated with observed in vivo toxicity. In silico models provide a framework for interpreting the in vitro results and for simul...

Mastodon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin Leigh; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Bolisetti, Chandrakanth

MASTODON has the capability to model stochastic nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) in a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework. The NLSSI simulations include structural dynamics, time integration, dynamic porous media flow, nonlinear hysteretic soil constitutive models, geometric nonlinearities (gapping, sliding, and uplift). MASTODON is also the MOOSE based master application for dynamic PRA of external hazards.

Linking Agricultural Crop Management and Air Quality Models for Regional to National-Scale Nitrogen Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

While nitrogen (N) is an essential element for life, human population growth and demands for energy, transportation and food can lead to excess nitrogen in the environment. A modeling framework is described and implemented to promote a more integrated, process-based and system le...

Behavioral Ecology of Captive Species: Using Bibliographic Information to Assess Pet Suitability of Mammal Species

PubMed Central

Koene, Paul; de Mol, Rudi M.; Ipema, Bert

2016-01-01

Which mammal species are suitable to be kept as pet? For answering this question many factors have to be considered. Animals have many adaptations to their natural environment in which they have evolved that may cause adaptation problems and/or risks in captivity. Problems may be visible in behavior, welfare, health, and/or human–animal interaction, resulting, for example, in stereotypies, disease, and fear. A framework is developed in which bibliographic information of mammal species from the wild and captive environment is collected and assessed by three teams of animal scientists. Oneliners from literature about behavioral ecology, health, and welfare and human–animal relationship of 90 mammal species are collected by team 1 in a database and strength of behavioral needs and risks is assessed by team 2. Based on summaries of those strengths the suitability of the mammal species is assessed by team 3. Involvement of stakeholders for supplying bibliographic information and assessments was propagated. Combining the individual and subjective assessments of the scientists using statistical methods makes the final assessment of a rank order of suitability as pet of those species less biased and more objective. The framework is dynamic and produces an initial rank ordered list of the pet suitability of 90 mammal species, methods to add new mammal species to the list or remove animals from the list and a method to incorporate stakeholder assessments. A model is developed that allows for provisional classification of pet suitability. Periodical update of the pet suitability framework is expected to produce an updated list with increased reliability and accuracy. Furthermore, the framework could be further developed to assess the pet suitability of additional species of other animal groups, e.g., birds, reptiles, and amphibians. PMID:27243023

A Framework for Structuring Learning Assessment in a Online Educational Game: Experiment Centered Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conrad, Shawn; Clarke-Midura, Jody; Klopfer, Eric

2014-01-01

Educational games offer an opportunity to engage and inspire students to take interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematical (STEM) subjects. Unobtrusive learning assessment techniques coupled with machine learning algorithms can be utilized to record students' in-game actions and formulate a model of the students' knowledge…

Developing a Theoretical Framework to Assess Taiwanese Primary Students' Geometric Argumentation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Tsu-Nan

2015-01-01

Geometric competences of students have sparked great concern in Taiwan since the release of the last TIMMS [Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study] assessment. Geometric argumentation is viewed as to play an important role to enhance the competences of geometry and reasoning. This study adopts Toulmin's (2003) model to develop such…

“A Modeling Framework for Improved Characterization of Near-Road Air Quality at Fine Scales for Nationwide Exposure Assessment.”

EPA Science Inventory

Communities at the proximity of roadways are exposed to high levels of air pollution from automobile exhaust and are under potential risk of adverse health effects. To understand the relationship between air pollution and adverse health effects, exposure and risk assessment studi...

Quantitative Procedures for the Assessment of Quality in Higher Education Institutions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moran, Tom; Rowse, Glenwood

The development of procedures designed to provide quantitative assessments of quality in higher education institutions are reviewed. These procedures employ a systems framework and utilize quantitative data to compare institutions or programs of similar types with one another. Three major elements essential in the development of models focusing on…

Documenting Student Learning in Music Performance: A Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wesolowski, Brian

2014-01-01

A fundamental aim of the Race to the Top agenda is to assess the effectiveness of teachers based on value-added growth measurement models of student achievement. However, in nontested grades and subject areas, such as music, alternative assessment types are being considered, including district-, school-, or teacher-developed measures. This article…

Quality Management and Self Assessment Tools for Public Libraries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evans, Margaret Kinnell

This paper describes a two-year study by the British Library Research and Innovation Centre that examined the potential of self-assessment for public library services. The approaches that formed the basis for the investigation were the Business Excellence Model, the Quality Framework, and the Democratic Approach. Core values were identified by…

Assessing resilience and state-transition models with historical records of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in North American sagebrush-steppe

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

1. Resilience-based approaches are increasingly being called upon to inform ecosystem management, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This requires management frameworks that can assess ecosystem dynamics, both within and between alternative states, at relevant time scales. 2. We analysed l...

The Evaluation Scale: Exploring Decisions about Societal Impact in Peer Review Panels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Derrick, Gemma E.; Samuel, Gabrielle N.

2016-01-01

Realising the societal gains from publicly funded health and medical research requires a model for a reflexive evaluation precedent for the societal impact of research. This research explores UK Research Excellence Framework evaluators' values and opinions and assessing societal impact, prior to the assessment taking place. Specifically, we…

Using the ACRL Framework to Develop a Student-Centered Model for Program-Level Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gammons, Rachel Wilder; Inge, Lindsay Taylor

2017-01-01

Information literacy instruction presents a difficult balance between quantity and quality, particularly for large-scale general education courses. This paper discusses the overhaul of the freshman composition instruction program at the University of Maryland Libraries, focusing on the transition from survey assessments to a student-centered and…

Exploring Classroom Assessment Practices: The Case of Teachers of English as a Foreign Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inbar-Lourie, Ofra; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

2009-01-01

The research investigated the factors which underlie the perceptions and usage of alternative assessment procedures among EFL teachers in Israel. The research was conducted within the framework of an earlier model by Hargreaves and colleagues comprising four perspectives--technological, cultural, political and postmodern--to account for teachers'…

Using StreamCat and the NHDPlus framework to model and map the biological condition of USA streams and rivers

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s National River and Stream Assessment (NRSA) uses spatially balanced sampling to estimate the proportion of streams within the conterminous US (CONUS) that deviate from least-disturbed biological condition (BC). These assessments do not infer BC at un-sampled streams,...

Crossing lines: a multidisciplinary framework for assessing connectivity of hammerhead sharks across jurisdictional boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, A.; Simpfendorfer, C. A.; White, W. T.; Johnson, G. J.; McAuley, R. B.; Heupel, M. R.

2017-04-01

Conservation and management of migratory species can be complex and challenging. International agreements such as the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) provide policy frameworks, but assessments and management can be hampered by lack of data and tractable mechanisms to integrate disparate datasets. An assessment of scalloped (Sphyrna lewini) and great (Sphyrna mokarran) hammerhead population structure and connectivity across northern Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) was conducted to inform management responses to CMS and Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species listings of these species. An Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF) was devised to systematically incorporate data across jurisdictions and create a regional synopsis, and amalgamated a suite of data from the Australasian region. Scalloped hammerhead populations are segregated by sex and size, with Australian populations dominated by juveniles and small adult males, while Indonesian and PNG populations included large adult females. The IAF process introduced genetic and tagging data to produce conceptual models of stock structure and movement. Several hypotheses were produced to explain stock structure and movement patterns, but more data are needed to identify the most likely hypothesis. This study demonstrates a process for assessing migratory species connectivity and highlights priority areas for hammerhead management and research.

Crossing lines: a multidisciplinary framework for assessing connectivity of hammerhead sharks across jurisdictional boundaries.

PubMed

Chin, A; Simpfendorfer, C A; White, W T; Johnson, G J; McAuley, R B; Heupel, M R

2017-04-21

Conservation and management of migratory species can be complex and challenging. International agreements such as the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) provide policy frameworks, but assessments and management can be hampered by lack of data and tractable mechanisms to integrate disparate datasets. An assessment of scalloped (Sphyrna lewini) and great (Sphyrna mokarran) hammerhead population structure and connectivity across northern Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) was conducted to inform management responses to CMS and Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species listings of these species. An Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF) was devised to systematically incorporate data across jurisdictions and create a regional synopsis, and amalgamated a suite of data from the Australasian region. Scalloped hammerhead populations are segregated by sex and size, with Australian populations dominated by juveniles and small adult males, while Indonesian and PNG populations included large adult females. The IAF process introduced genetic and tagging data to produce conceptual models of stock structure and movement. Several hypotheses were produced to explain stock structure and movement patterns, but more data are needed to identify the most likely hypothesis. This study demonstrates a process for assessing migratory species connectivity and highlights priority areas for hammerhead management and research.

Analysis model for personal eHealth solutions and services.

PubMed

Mykkänen, Juha; Tuomainen, Mika; Luukkonen, Irmeli; Itälä, Timo

2010-01-01

In this paper, we present a framework for analysing and assessing various features of personal wellbeing information management services and solutions such as personal health records and citizen-oriented eHealth services. The model is based on general functional and interoperability standards for personal health management applications and generic frameworks for different aspects of analysis. It has been developed and used in the MyWellbeing project in Finland to provide baseline for the research, development and comparison of many different personal wellbeing and health management solutions and to support the development of unified "Coper" concept for citizen empowerment.

A log-linear model approach to estimation of population size using the line-transect sampling method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Crain, B.R.

1978-01-01

The technique of estimating wildlife population size and density using the belt or line-transect sampling method has been used in many past projects, such as the estimation of density of waterfowl nestling sites in marshes, and is being used currently in such areas as the assessment of Pacific porpoise stocks in regions of tuna fishing activity. A mathematical framework for line-transect methodology has only emerged in the last 5 yr. In the present article, we extend this mathematical framework to a line-transect estimator based upon a log-linear model approach.

Disability Policy Evaluation: Combining Logic Models and Systems Thinking.

PubMed

Claes, Claudia; Ferket, Neelke; Vandevelde, Stijn; Verlet, Dries; De Maeyer, Jessica

2017-07-01

Policy evaluation focuses on the assessment of policy-related personal, family, and societal changes or benefits that follow as a result of the interventions, services, and supports provided to those persons to whom the policy is directed. This article describes a systematic approach to policy evaluation based on an evaluation framework and an evaluation process that combine the use of logic models and systems thinking. The article also includes an example of how the framework and process have recently been used in policy development and evaluation in Flanders (Belgium), as well as four policy evaluation guidelines based on relevant published literature.

A hydroeconomic modeling framework for optimal integrated management of forest and water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Prats, Alberto; del Campo, Antonio D.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-10-01

Forests play a determinant role in the hydrologic cycle, with water being the most important ecosystem service they provide in semiarid regions. However, this contribution is usually neither quantified nor explicitly valued. The aim of this study is to develop a novel hydroeconomic modeling framework for assessing and designing the optimal integrated forest and water management for forested catchments. The optimization model explicitly integrates changes in water yield in the stands (increase in groundwater recharge) induced by forest management and the value of the additional water provided to the system. The model determines the optimal schedule of silvicultural interventions in the stands of the catchment in order to maximize the total net benefit in the system. Canopy cover and biomass evolution over time were simulated using growth and yield allometric equations specific for the species in Mediterranean conditions. Silvicultural operation costs according to stand density and canopy cover were modeled using local cost databases. Groundwater recharge was simulated using HYDRUS, calibrated and validated with data from the experimental plots. In order to illustrate the presented modeling framework, a case study was carried out in a planted pine forest (Pinus halepensis Mill.) located in south-western Valencia province (Spain). The optimized scenario increased groundwater recharge. This novel modeling framework can be used in the design of a "payment for environmental services" scheme in which water beneficiaries could contribute to fund and promote efficient forest management operations.

High-Performance Computer Modeling of the Cosmos-Iridium Collision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olivier, S; Cook, K; Fasenfest, B

2009-08-28

This paper describes the application of a new, integrated modeling and simulation framework, encompassing the space situational awareness (SSA) enterprise, to the recent Cosmos-Iridium collision. This framework is based on a flexible, scalable architecture to enable efficient simulation of the current SSA enterprise, and to accommodate future advancements in SSA systems. In particular, the code is designed to take advantage of massively parallel, high-performance computer systems available, for example, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. We will describe the application of this framework to the recent collision of the Cosmos and Iridium satellites, including (1) detailed hydrodynamic modeling of the satellitemore » collision and resulting debris generation, (2) orbital propagation of the simulated debris and analysis of the increased risk to other satellites (3) calculation of the radar and optical signatures of the simulated debris and modeling of debris detection with space surveillance radar and optical systems (4) determination of simulated debris orbits from modeled space surveillance observations and analysis of the resulting orbital accuracy, (5) comparison of these modeling and simulation results with Space Surveillance Network observations. We will also discuss the use of this integrated modeling and simulation framework to analyze the risks and consequences of future satellite collisions and to assess strategies for mitigating or avoiding future incidents, including the addition of new sensor systems, used in conjunction with the Space Surveillance Network, for improving space situational awareness.« less

Loss modeling for pricing catastrophic bonds.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

In the research, a loss estimation framework is presented that directly relates seismic : hazard to seismic response to damage and hence to losses. A Performance-Based Earthquake : Engineering (PBEE) approach towards assessing the seismic vulnerabili...

BASINS Framework and Features

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BASINS enables users to efficiently access nationwide environmental databases and local user-specified datasets, apply assessment and planning tools, and run a variety of proven nonpoint loading and water quality models within a single GIS format.

Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management in Arid/Semi-arid Regions: Data, Modeling, and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, H.; Liu, Y.; Wagener, T.; Durcik, M.; Duffy, C.; Springer, E.

2005-12-01

Water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. As the demand for water continues to increase due to economic and population growth, planning and management of available water resources under climate uncertainties becomes increasingly critical in order to achieve basin-scale water sustainability (i.e., to ensure a long-term balance between supply and demand of water).The tremendous complexity of the interactions between the natural hydrologic system and the human environment means that modeling is the only available mechanism for properly integrating new knowledge into the decision-making process. Basin-scale integrated models have the potential to allow us to study the feedback processes between the physical and human systems (including institutional, engineering, and behavioral components); and an integrated assessment of the potential second- and higher-order effects of political and management decisions can aid in the selection of a rational water-resources policy. Data and information, especially hydrological and water-use data, are critical to the integrated modeling and assessment for water resources management of any region. To this end we are in the process of developing a multi-resolution integrated modeling and assessment framework for the south-western USA, which can be used to generate simulations of the probable effects of human actions while taking into account the uncertainties brought about by future climatic variability and change. Data are being collected (including the development of a hydro-geospatial database) and used in support of the modeling and assessment activities. This paper will present a blueprint of the modeling framework, describe achievements so far and discuss the science questions which still require answers with a particular emphasis on issues related to dry regions.

The Necessity-Concerns-Framework: A Multidimensional Theory Benefits from Multidimensional Analysis

PubMed Central

Phillips, L. Alison; Diefenbach, Michael; Kronish, Ian M.; Negron, Rennie M.; Horowitz, Carol R.

2014-01-01

Background Patients’ medication-related concerns and necessity-beliefs predict adherence. Evaluation of the potentially complex interplay of these two dimensions has been limited because of methods that reduce them to a single dimension (difference scores). Purpose We use polynomial regression to assess the multidimensional effect of stroke-event survivors’ medication-related concerns and necessity-beliefs on their adherence to stroke-prevention medication. Methods Survivors (n=600) rated their concerns, necessity-beliefs, and adherence to medication. Confirmatory and exploratory polynomial regression determined the best-fitting multidimensional model. Results As posited by the Necessity-Concerns Framework (NCF), the greatest and lowest adherence was reported by those with strong necessity-beliefs/weak concerns and strong concerns/weak necessity-beliefs, respectively. However, as could not be assessed using a difference-score model, patients with ambivalent beliefs were less adherent than those exhibiting indifference. Conclusions Polynomial regression allows for assessment of the multidimensional nature of the NCF. Clinicians/Researchers should be aware that concerns and necessity dimensions are not polar opposites. PMID:24500078

The necessity-concerns framework: a multidimensional theory benefits from multidimensional analysis.

PubMed

Phillips, L Alison; Diefenbach, Michael A; Kronish, Ian M; Negron, Rennie M; Horowitz, Carol R

2014-08-01

Patients' medication-related concerns and necessity-beliefs predict adherence. Evaluation of the potentially complex interplay of these two dimensions has been limited because of methods that reduce them to a single dimension (difference scores). We use polynomial regression to assess the multidimensional effect of stroke-event survivors' medication-related concerns and necessity beliefs on their adherence to stroke-prevention medication. Survivors (n = 600) rated their concerns, necessity beliefs, and adherence to medication. Confirmatory and exploratory polynomial regression determined the best-fitting multidimensional model. As posited by the necessity-concerns framework (NCF), the greatest and lowest adherence was reported by those necessity weak concerns and strong concerns/weak Necessity-Beliefs, respectively. However, as could not be assessed using a difference-score model, patients with ambivalent beliefs were less adherent than those exhibiting indifference. Polynomial regression allows for assessment of the multidimensional nature of the NCF. Clinicians/Researchers should be aware that concerns and necessity dimensions are not polar opposites.

A Pareto analysis approach to assess relevant marginal CO{sub 2} footprint for petroleum products

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tehrani, Nejad M. Alireza, E-mail: alireza.tehraninejad@gmail.com

2015-07-15

Recently, linear programing (LP) models have been extended to track the marginal CO{sub 2} intensity of automotive fuels at the refinery gate. The obtained CO{sub 2} data are recommended for policy making because they capture the economic and environmental tensions as well as the processing effects related to oil products. However, they are proven to be extremely sensitive to small perturbations and therefore useless in practice. In this paper, we first investigate the theoretical reasons of this drawback. Then, we develop a multiple objective LP framework to assess relevant marginal CO{sub 2} footprints that preserve both defensibility and stability atmore » a satisfactory level of acceptance. A case study illustrates this new methodology. - Highlights: • Refining LP models have limitations to provide useful marginal CO{sub 2} footprints. • A multi objective optimization framework is developed to assess relevant CO{sub 2} data. • Within a European Refinig industry, diesel is more CO{sub 2} intensive than gasoline.« less

Ecological Risk Assessment Framework for Low-Altitude Overflights by Fixed-Wing and Rotary-Wing Military Aircraft

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, R.A.

2001-01-12

This is a companion report to the risk assessment framework proposed by Suter et al. (1998): ''A Framework for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources,'' hereafter referred to as the ''generic framework.'' The generic framework is an ecological risk assessment methodology for use in environmental assessments on Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In the generic framework, the ecological risk assessment framework of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1998) is modified for use in the context of (1) multiple and diverse stressors and activities at a military installation and (2) risks resulting from causal chains,more » e.g., effects on habitat that indirectly impact wildlife. Both modifications are important if the EPA framework is to be used on military installations. In order for the generic risk assessment framework to be useful to DoD environmental staff and contractors, the framework must be applied to specific training and testing activities. Three activity-specific ecological risk assessment frameworks have been written (1) to aid environmental staff in conducting risk assessments that involve these activities and (2) to guide staff in the development of analogous frameworks for other DoD activities. The three activities are: (1) low-altitude overflights by fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft (this volume), (2) firing at targets on land, and (3) ocean explosions. The activities were selected as priority training and testing activities by the advisory committee for this project.« less

Perspective: Toward a competency framework for faculty.

PubMed

Milner, Robert J; Gusic, Maryellen E; Thorndyke, Luanne E

2011-10-01

Today, faculty in academic medicine face challenges in all three mission areas--research, education, and patient care--and require a broad set of competencies to survive in this changing environment. To support faculty and to design assessments that match new expectations, the authors argue that it is essential to capture the full scope of skills, knowledge, and behaviors necessary for a successful faculty member. Thus, it is timely to explore and define competencies for faculty in academic medicine. The authors describe three approaches to identifying faculty competencies. Each reveals diverse but overlapping sets of competency domains, reflecting the breadth of activities expected of today's faculty. To organize these competencies into a coherent framework, the authors propose a model based on a typology of competency. A key feature of the model is the division between occupational competencies, which are largely role-specific, and personal competencies, which are necessary for all faculty. A competency framework also must be developmental, to reflect the growth in skills, knowledge, and behaviors from trainee to expert and to allow for an individual's changing roles over a career. Such a competency framework will inform professional development activities and require assessment of competence. The generation of competencies also will reveal areas of faculty practice that are poorly measured, requiring new tools to be incorporated into existing processes of faculty evaluation. The authors provide general principles to guide the identification of a competency framework for faculty and invite the academic medicine community to engage in further discussion.

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agriculturalmore » Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.« less

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.

A framework to simulate small shallow inland water bodies in semi-arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, Ali; Ohene Annor, Frank; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-12-01

In this study, a framework for simulating the flow field and heat transfer processes in small shallow inland water bodies has been developed. As the dynamics and thermal structure of these water bodies are crucial in studying the quality of stored water , and in assessing the heat fluxes from their surfaces as well, the heat transfer and temperature simulations were modeled. The proposed model is able to simulate the full 3-D water flow and heat transfer in the water body by applying complex and time varying boundary conditions. In this model, the continuity, momentum and temperature equations together with the turbulence equations, which comprise the buoyancy effect, have been solved. This model is built on the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) equations with the widely used Boussinesq approach to solve the turbulence issues of the flow field. Micrometeorological data were obtained from an Automatic Weather Station (AWS) installed on the site and combined with field bathymetric measurements for the model. In the framework developed, a simple, applicable and generalizable approach is proposed for preparing the geometry of small shallow water bodies using coarsely measured bathymetry. All parts of the framework are based on open-source tools, which is essential for developing countries.

When is a randomised controlled trial health equity relevant? Development and validation of a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Jull, J; Whitehead, M; Petticrew, M; Kristjansson, E; Gough, D; Petkovic, J; Volmink, J; Weijer, C; Taljaard, M; Edwards, S; Mbuagbaw, L; Cookson, R; McGowan, J; Lyddiatt, A; Boyer, Y; Cuervo, L G; Armstrong, R; White, H; Yoganathan, M; Pantoja, T; Shea, B; Pottie, K; Norheim, O; Baird, S; Robberstad, B; Sommerfelt, H; Asada, Y; Wells, G; Tugwell, P; Welch, V

2017-09-25

Randomised controlled trials can provide evidence relevant to assessing the equity impact of an intervention, but such information is often poorly reported. We describe a conceptual framework to identify health equity-relevant randomised trials with the aim of improving the design and reporting of such trials. An interdisciplinary and international research team engaged in an iterative consensus building process to develop and refine the conceptual framework via face-to-face meetings, teleconferences and email correspondence, including findings from a validation exercise whereby two independent reviewers used the emerging framework to classify a sample of randomised trials. A randomised trial can usefully be classified as 'health equity relevant' if it assesses the effects of an intervention on the health or its determinants of either individuals or a population who experience ill health due to disadvantage defined across one or more social determinants of health. Health equity-relevant randomised trials can either exclusively focus on a single population or collect data potentially useful for assessing differential effects of the intervention across multiple populations experiencing different levels or types of social disadvantage. Trials that are not classified as 'health equity relevant' may nevertheless provide information that is indirectly relevant to assessing equity impact, including information about individual level variation unrelated to social disadvantage and potentially useful in secondary modelling studies. The conceptual framework may be used to design and report randomised trials. The framework could also be used for other study designs to contribute to the evidence base for improved health equity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The National Danish Water Resources Model - using an integrated groundwater - surface water model for decision support and WFD implementation in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Hinsby, Klaus; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Troldborg, Lars

2014-05-01

Integrated and sustainable water resources management and development of river basin management plans according to the Water Framework Directive is getting increasingly complex especially when taking projected climate change into account. Furthermore, uncertainty in future developments and incomplete knowledge of the physical system introduces a high degree of uncertainty in the decision making process. Knowledge based decision making is therefore vital for formulation of robust management plans and to allow assessment of the inherent uncertainties. The Department of Hydrology at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland started in 1996 to develop a mechanistically, transient and spatially distributed groundwater-surface water model - the DK-model - for the assessment of groundwater quantitative status accounting for interactions with surface water and anthropogenic changes, such as extraction strategies and land use, as well as climate change. The model has been subject to continuous update building on hydrogeological knowledge established by the regional water authorities and other national research institutes. With the on-going improvement of the DK-model it is now increasingly applied both by research projects and for decision support e.g. in implementation of the Water Framework Directive or to support other decisions related to protection of water resources (quantitative and chemical status), ecosystems and the built environment. At present, the DK-model constitutes the backbone of a strategic modelling project funded by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, with the aim of developing a modelling complex that will provide the foundation of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Since 2003 the DK-model has been used in more than 25 scientific papers and even more public reports. In the poster and the related review paper we describe the most important applications in both science and policy, where the DK-model has been used either directly or as an important starting point for assessing the impact of climate change on the quantity and quality of groundwater and surface water e.g. in relation to changes in water tables, runoff, nutrient loadings, flooding risks (coastal and hinterland), irrigation demands, sea level rise and seawater intrusion or to assess where geology or climate change create the largest uncertainty for evaluation of the development of water resources quantity and quality.

Sequential optimization of a terrestrial biosphere model constrained by multiple satellite based products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Nemani, R. R.

2012-12-01

Various satellite-based spatial products such as evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are now produced by integration of ground and satellite observations. Effective use of these multiple satellite-based products in terrestrial biosphere models is an important step toward better understanding of terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, due to the complexity of terrestrial biosphere models with large number of model parameters, the application of these spatial data sets in terrestrial biosphere models is difficult. In this study, we established an effective but simple framework to refine a terrestrial biosphere model, Biome-BGC, using multiple satellite-based products as constraints. We tested the framework in the monsoon Asia region covered by AsiaFlux observations. The framework is based on the hierarchical analysis (Wang et al. 2009) with model parameter optimization constrained by satellite-based spatial data. The Biome-BGC model is separated into several tiers to minimize the freedom of model parameter selections and maximize the independency from the whole model. For example, the snow sub-model is first optimized using MODIS snow cover product, followed by soil water sub-model optimized by satellite-based ET (estimated by an empirical upscaling method; Support Vector Regression (SVR) method; Yang et al. 2007), photosynthesis model optimized by satellite-based GPP (based on SVR method), and respiration and residual carbon cycle models optimized by biomass data. As a result of initial assessment, we found that most of default sub-models (e.g. snow, water cycle and carbon cycle) showed large deviations from remote sensing observations. However, these biases were removed by applying the proposed framework. For example, gross primary productivities were initially underestimated in boreal and temperate forest and overestimated in tropical forests. However, the parameter optimization scheme successfully reduced these biases. Our analysis shows that terrestrial carbon and water cycle simulations in monsoon Asia were greatly improved, and the use of multiple satellite observations with this framework is an effective way for improving terrestrial biosphere models.

Multi-model assessment of air pollution-related premature mortality in Europe and U.S.: Domestic vs. foreign contributions

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of air pollution on premature mortality in Europe and the United States (U.S.) for the year 2010 is modelled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the framework of the AQMEII3 project. The gridded surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 from each mode...

The Hierarchical Rater Model for Rated Test Items and Its Application to Large-Scale Educational Assessment Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patz, Richard J.; Junker, Brian W.; Johnson, Matthew S.; Mariano, Louis T.

2002-01-01

Discusses the hierarchical rater model (HRM) of R. Patz (1996) and shows how it can be used to scale examinees and items, model aspects of consensus among raters, and model individual rater severity and consistency effects. Also shows how the HRM fits into the generalizability theory framework. Compares the HRM to the conventional item response…

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Init...

What can we learn from international comparisons of health systems and health system reform?

PubMed Central

McPake, B.; Mills, A.

2000-01-01

Most commonly, lessons derived from comparisons of international health sector reform can only be generalized in a limited way to similar countries. However, there is little guidance as to what constitutes "similarity" in this respect. We propose that a framework for assessing similarity could be derived from the performance of individual policies in different contexts, and from the cause and effect processes related to the policies. We demonstrate this process by considering research evidence in the "public-private mix", and propose variables for an initial framework that we believe determine private involvement in the public health sector. The most influential model of public leadership places the private role in a contracting framework. Research in countries that have adopted this model suggests an additional list of variables to add to the framework. The variables can be grouped under the headings "demand factors", "supply factors", and "strength of the public sector". These illustrate the nature of a framework that could emerge, and which would help countries aiming to learn from international experience. PMID:10916918

Hierarchical kernel mixture models for the prediction of AIDS disease progression using HIV structural gp120 profiles

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Changes to the glycosylation profile on HIV gp120 can influence viral pathogenesis and alter AIDS disease progression. The characterization of glycosylation differences at the sequence level is inadequate as the placement of carbohydrates is structurally complex. However, no structural framework is available to date for the study of HIV disease progression. In this study, we propose a novel machine-learning based framework for the prediction of AIDS disease progression in three stages (RP, SP, and LTNP) using the HIV structural gp120 profile. This new intelligent framework proves to be accurate and provides an important benchmark for predicting AIDS disease progression computationally. The model is trained using a novel HIV gp120 glycosylation structural profile to detect possible stages of AIDS disease progression for the target sequences of HIV+ individuals. The performance of the proposed model was compared to seven existing different machine-learning models on newly proposed gp120-Benchmark_1 dataset in terms of error-rate (MSE), accuracy (CCI), stability (STD), and complexity (TBM). The novel framework showed better predictive performance with 67.82% CCI, 30.21 MSE, 0.8 STD, and 2.62 TBM on the three stages of AIDS disease progression of 50 HIV+ individuals. This framework is an invaluable bioinformatics tool that will be useful to the clinical assessment of viral pathogenesis. PMID:21143806

Model-Based Policymaking: A Framework to Promote Ethical "Good Practice" in Mathematical Modeling for Public Health Policymaking.

PubMed

Boden, Lisa A; McKendrick, Iain J

2017-01-01

Mathematical models are increasingly relied upon as decision support tools, which estimate risks and generate recommendations to underpin public health policies. However, there are no formal agreements about what constitutes professional competencies or duties in mathematical modeling for public health. In this article, we propose a framework to evaluate whether mathematical models that assess human and animal disease risks and control strategies meet standards consistent with ethical "good practice" and are thus "fit for purpose" as evidence in support of policy. This framework is derived from principles of biomedical ethics: independence, transparency (autonomy), beneficence/non-maleficence, and justice. We identify ethical risks associated with model development and implementation and consider the extent to which scientists are accountable for the translation and communication of model results to policymakers so that the strengths and weaknesses of the scientific evidence base and any socioeconomic and ethical impacts of biased or uncertain predictions are clearly understood. We propose principles to operationalize a framework for ethically sound model development and risk communication between scientists and policymakers. These include the creation of science-policy partnerships to mutually define policy questions and communicate results; development of harmonized international standards for model development; and data stewardship and improvement of the traceability and transparency of models via a searchable archive of policy-relevant models. Finally, we suggest that bespoke ethical advisory groups, with relevant expertise and access to these resources, would be beneficial as a bridge between science and policy, advising modelers of potential ethical risks and providing overview of the translation of modeling advice into policy.

A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality.

PubMed

Zessner, Matthias; Schönhart, Martin; Parajka, Juraj; Trautvetter, Helene; Mitter, Hermine; Kirchner, Mathias; Hepp, Gerold; Blaschke, Alfred Paul; Strenn, Birgit; Schmid, Erwin

2017-02-01

Changes in climatic conditions will directly affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Further on, they will affect them indirectly through adaptation in land use which ultimately influences diffuse nutrient emissions to rivers and therefore potentially the compliance with good ecological status according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). We present an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to track and quantify direct and indirect pollution impacts along policy-economy-climate-agriculture-water interfaces. The IIMF is applied to assess impacts of climatic and socio-economic drivers on agricultural land use (crop choices, farming practices and fertilization levels), river flows and the risk for exceedance of environmental quality standards for determination of the ecological water quality status in Austria. This article also presents model interfaces as well as validation procedures and results of single models and the IIMF with respect to observed state variables such as land use, river flow and nutrient river loads. The performance of the IIMF for calculations of river nutrient loads (120 monitoring stations) shows a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.73 for nitrogen and 0.51 for phosphorus. Most problematic is the modelling of phosphorus loads in the alpine catchments dominated by forests and mountainous landscape. About 63% of these catchments show a deviation between modelled and observed loads of 30% and more. In catchments dominated by agricultural production, the performance of the IIMF is much better as only 30% of cropland and 23% of permanent grassland dominated areas have a deviation of >30% between modelled and observed loads. As risk of exceedance of environmental quality standards is mainly recognized in catchments dominated by cropland, the IIMF is well suited for assessing the nutrient component of the WFD ecological status. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.