Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent processes from a different domain or have different spatial and temporal resolutions. An open source framework that bridges OpenMI and OpenDA is presented. The framework provides a generic and easy means for any OpenMI compliant model to assimilate observation measurements. An example test case will be presented using MikeSHE, and OpenMI compliant fully coupled integrated hydrological model that can accurately simulate the feedback dynamics of overland flow, unsaturated zone and saturated zone.

Global Soil Moisture Estimation through a Coupled CLM4-RTM-DART Land Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.; Yang, Z. L.; Hoar, T. J.

2016-12-01

Very few frameworks exist that estimate global-scale soil moisture through microwave land data assimilation (DA). Toward this goal, we have developed such a framework by linking the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) and a microwave radiative transfer model (RTM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The deterministic Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) within the DART is utilized to estimate global multi-layer soil moisture by assimilating brightness temperature observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). A 40-member of Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) reanalysis is adopted to drive CLM4 simulations. Spatial-specific time-invariant microwave parameters are pre-calibrated to minimize uncertainties in RTM. Besides, various methods are designed in consideration of computational efficiency. A series of experiments are conducted to quantify the DA sensitivity to microwave parameters, choice of assimilated observations, and different CLM4 updating schemes. Evaluation results indicate that the newly established CLM4-RTM-DART framework improves the open-loop CLM4 simulated soil moisture. Pre-calibrated microwave parameters, rather than their default values, can ensure a more robust global-scale performance. In addition, updating near-surface soil moisture is capable of improving soil moisture in deeper layers, while simultaneously updating multi-layer soil moisture fails to obtain intended improvements. We will show in this presentation the architecture of the CLM4-RTM-DART system and the evaluations on AMSR-E DA. Preliminary results on multi-sensor DA that integrates various satellite observations including GRACE, MODIS, and AMSR-E will also be presented. ReferenceZhao, L., Z.-L. Yang, and T. J. Hoar, 2016. Global Soil Moisture Estimation by Assimilating AMSR-E Brightness Temperatures in a Coupled CLM4-RTM-DART System. Journal of Hydrometeorology, DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0218.1.

Empowering Geoscience with Improved Data Assimilation Using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed "Manhattan" Release.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raeder, K.; Hoar, T. J.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hendricks, J.; Kershaw, H.; Ha, S.; Snyder, C.; Skamarock, W. C.; Mizzi, A. P.; Liu, H.; Liu, J.; Pedatella, N. M.; Karspeck, A. R.; Karol, S. I.; Bitz, C. M.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

The capabilities of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) at NCAR have been significantly expanded with the recent "Manhattan" release. DART is an ensemble Kalman filter based suite of tools, which enables researchers to use data assimilation (DA) without first becoming DA experts. Highlights: significant improvement in efficient ensemble DA for very large models on thousands of processors, direct read and write of model state files in parallel, more control of the DA output for finer-grained analysis, new model interfaces which are useful to a variety of geophysical researchers, new observation forward operators and the ability to use precomputed forward operators from the forecast model. The new model interfaces and example applications include the following: MPAS-A; Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere is a global, nonhydrostatic, variable-resolution mesh atmospheric model, which facilitates multi-scale analysis and forecasting. The absence of distinct subdomains eliminates problems associated with subdomain boundaries. It demonstrates the ability to consistently produce higher-quality analyses than coarse, uniform meshes do. WRF-Chem; Weather Research and Forecasting + (MOZART) Chemistry model assimilates observations from FRAPPÉ (Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment). WACCM-X; Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension assimilates observations of electron density to investigate sudden stratospheric warming. CESM (weakly) coupled assimilation; NCAR's Community Earth System Model is used for assimilation of atmospheric and oceanic observations into their respective components using coupled atmosphere+land+ocean+sea+ice forecasts. CESM2.0; Assimilation in the atmospheric component (CAM, WACCM) of the newly released version is supported. This version contains new and extensively updated components and software environment. CICE; Los Alamos sea ice model (in CESM) is used to assimilate multivariate sea ice concentration observations to constrain the model's ice thickness, concentration, and parameters.

Impacts of snow cover fraction data assimilation on modeled energy and moisture budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, Kristi R.; Houser, Paul R.; De Lannoy, Gabriëlle J. M.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2013-07-01

Two data assimilation (DA) methods, a simple rule-based direct insertion (DI) approach and a one-dimensional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method, are evaluated by assimilating snow cover fraction observations into the Community Land surface Model. The ensemble perturbation needed for the EnKF resulted in negative snowpack biases. Therefore, a correction is made to the ensemble bias using an approach that constrains the ensemble forecasts with a single unperturbed deterministic LSM run. This is shown to improve the final snow state analyses. The EnKF method produces slightly better results in higher elevation locations, whereas results indicate that the DI method has a performance advantage in lower elevation regions. In addition, the two DA methods are evaluated in terms of their overall impacts on the other land surface state variables (e.g., soil moisture) and fluxes (e.g., latent heat flux). The EnKF method is shown to have less impact overall than the DI method and causes less distortion of the hydrological budget. However, the land surface model adjusts more slowly to the smaller EnKF increments, which leads to smaller but slightly more persistent moisture budget errors than found with the DI updates. The DI method can remove almost instantly much of the modeled snowpack, but this also allows the model system to quickly revert to hydrological balance for nonsnowpack conditions.

Continental scale data assimilation of discharge and its effect on flow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; van Dijk, Albert

2017-04-01

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist (Emmerton et al., 2016). Current global flood forecasting system heavily rely on forecast forcing (precipitation, temperature, reference potential evaporation) to derive initial state estimates of the hydrological model for the next forecast (e.g. by glueing the first day of subsequent forecast as proxy for the historical observed forcing). It is clear that this approach is not perfect and that data assimilation can help to overcome some of the weaknesses of this approach. So far most hydrologic da studies have focused mostly on catchment scale. Here we conduct a da experiment by assimilating multiple streamflow observations across the contiguous united states (CONUS) and Europe into a global hydrological model (W3RA) and run with and without localization method using OpenDA in the global flood forecasting information system (GLOFFIS). It is shown that assimilation of streamflow holds considerable potential for improving global scale flood forecasting (improving NSE scores from 0 to 0.7 and beyond). Weakness in the model (e.g. structural problems and missing processes) and forcing that influence the performance will be highlighted.

Continental scale data assimilation of discharge and its effect on flow predictions across the contiguous US (CONUS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, A.; Schellekens, J.; van Dijk, A.; Molenaar, R.

2016-12-01

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist (Emmerton et al., 2016). Current global flood forecasting system heavily rely on forecast forcing (precipitation, temperature, reference potential evaporation) to derive initial state estimates of the hydrological model for the next forecast (e.g. by glueing the first day of subsequent forecast as proxy for the historical observed forcing). It is clear that this approach is not perfect and that data assimilation can help to overcome some of the weaknesses of this approach. So far most hydrologic da studies have focused mostly on catchment scale. Here we conduct a da experiment by assimilating multiple streamflow observations across the contiguous united states (CONUS) into a global hydrological model (W3RA) and run with and without localization method using OpenDA in the global flood forecasting information system (GLOFFIS). It is shown that assimilation of streamflow holds considerable potential for improving global scale flood forecasting (improving NSE scores from 0 to 0.7 and beyond). Weakness in the model (e.g. structural problems and missing processes) and forcing that influence the performance will be highlighted.

Elucidating Inherent Uncertainties in Data Assimilation for Predictions Incorporating Non-stationary Processes - Focus on Predictive Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.

2017-12-01

Data assimilation (DA) is the widely accepted procedure for estimating parameters within predictive models because of the adaptability and uncertainty quantification offered by Bayesian methods. DA applications in phenology modeling offer critical insights into how extreme weather or changes in climate impact the vegetation life cycle. Changes in leaf onset and senescence, root phenology, and intermittent leaf shedding imply large changes in the surface radiative, water, and carbon budgets at multiple scales. Models of leaf phenology require concurrent atmospheric and soil conditions to determine how biophysical plant properties respond to changes in temperature, light and water demand. Presently, climatological records for fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) and leaf area index (LAI), the modelled states indicative of plant phenology, are not available. Further, DA models are typically trained on short periods of record (e.g. less than 10 years). Using limited records with a DA framework imposes non-stationarity on estimated parameters and the resulting predicted model states. This talk discusses how uncertainty introduced by the inherent non-stationarity of the modeled processes propagates through a land-surface hydrology model coupled to a predictive phenology model. How water demand is accounted for in the upscaling of DA model inputs and analysis period serves as a key source of uncertainty in the FPAR and LAI predictions. Parameters estimated from different DA effectively calibrate a plant water-use strategy within the land-surface hydrology model. For example, when extreme droughts are included in the DA period, the plants are trained to uptake water, transpire, and assimilate carbon under favorable conditions and quickly shut down at the onset of water stress.

Satellite radiance data assimilation for binary tropical cyclone cases over the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Yonghan; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Joowan; Jin, Chun-Sil; Park, Sang-Hun; Joh, Min-Su

2017-06-01

A total of three binary tropical cyclone (TC) cases over the Western North Pacific are selected to investigate the effects of satellite radiance data assimilation on analyses and forecasts of binary TCs. Two parallel cycling experiments with a 6 h interval are performed for each binary TC case, and the difference between the two experiments is whether satellite radiance observations are assimilated. Satellite radiance observations are assimilated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation (WRFDA)'s three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) system, which includes the observation operator, quality control procedures, and bias correction algorithm for radiance observations. On average, radiance assimilation results in slight improvements of environmental fields and track forecasts of binary TC cases, but the detailed effects vary with the case. When there is no direct interaction between binary TCs, radiance assimilation leads to better depictions of environmental fields, and finally it results in improved track forecasts. However, positive effects of radiance assimilation on track forecasts can be reduced when there exists a direct interaction between binary TCs and intensities/structures of binary TCs are not represented well. An initialization method (e.g., dynamic initialization) combined with radiance assimilation and/or more advanced DA techniques (e.g., hybrid method) can be considered to overcome these limitations.

Evaluating the Impact of AIRS Observations on Regional Forecasts at the SPoRT Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley

2011-01-01

NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center collaborates with operational partners of different sizes and operational goals to improve forecasts using targeted projects and data sets. Modeling and DA activities focus on demonstrating utility of NASA data sets and capabilities within operational systems. SPoRT has successfully assimilated the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance and profile data. A collaborative project is underway with the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) to use AIRS profiles to better understand the impact of AIRS radiances assimilated within Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) in hopes of engaging the operational DA community in a reassessment of assimilation methodologies to more effectively assimilate hyperspectral radiances.

On the assimilation of SWOT type data into 2D shallow-water models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frédéric, Couderc; Denis, Dartus; Pierre-André, Garambois; Ronan, Madec; Jérôme, Monnier; Jean-Paul, Villa

2013-04-01

In river hydraulics, assimilation of water level measurements at gauging stations is well controlled, while assimilation of images is still delicate. In the present talk, we address the richness of satellite mapped information to constrain a 2D shallow-water model, but also related difficulties. 2D shallow models may be necessary for small scale modelling in particular for low-water and flood plain flows. Since in both cases, the dynamics of the wet-dry front is essential, one has to elaborate robust and accurate solvers. In this contribution we introduce robust second order, stable finite volume scheme [CoMaMoViDaLa]. Comparisons of real like tests cases with more classical solvers highlight the importance of an accurate flood plain modelling. A preliminary inverse study is presented in a flood plain flow case, [LaMo] [HoLaMoPu]. As a first step, a 0th order data processing model improves observation operator and produces more reliable water level derived from rough measurements [PuRa]. Then, both model and flow behaviours can be better understood thanks to variational sensitivities based on a gradient computation and adjoint equations. It can reveal several difficulties that a model designer has to tackle. Next, a 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm used with spatialized data leads to improved model calibration and potentially leads to identify river discharges. All the algorithms are implemented into DassFlow software (Fortran, MPI, adjoint) [Da]. All these results and experiments (accurate wet-dry front dynamics, sensitivities analysis, identification of discharges and calibration of model) are currently performed in view to use data from the future SWOT mission. [CoMaMoViDaLa] F. Couderc, R. Madec, J. Monnier, J.-P. Vila, D. Dartus, K. Larnier. "Sensitivity analysis and variational data assimilation for geophysical shallow water flows". Submitted. [Da] DassFlow - Data Assimilation for Free Surface Flows. Computational software http://www-gmm.insa-toulouse.fr/~monnier/DassFlow/ [HoLaMoPu] R. Hostache, X. Lai, J. Monnier, C. Puech. "Assimilation of spatial distributed water levels into a shallow-water flood model. Part II: using a remote sensing image of Mosel river". J. Hydrology (2010). [LaMo] X. Lai, J. Monnier. "Assimilation of spatial distributed water levels into a shallow-water flood model. Part I: mathematical method and test case". J. Hydrology (2009). [PuRa] C. Puech, D. Raclot. "Using geographic information systems and aerial photographs to determine water levels during floods". Hydrol. Process., 16, 1593 - 1602, (2002). [RoDa] H. Roux, D. Dartus. "Use of Parameter Optimization to Estimate a Flood Wave: Potential Applications to Remote Sensing of Rivers". J. Hydrology (2006).

Radiance Assimilation Shows Promise for Snowpack Characterization: A 1-D Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Durand, Michael; Kim, Edward; Margulis, Steve

2008-01-01

We demonstrate an ensemble-based radiometric data assimilation (DA) methodology for estimating snow depth and snow grain size using ground-based passive microwave (PM) observations at 18.7 and 36.5 GHz collected during the NASA CLPX-1, March 2003, Colorado, USA. A land surface model was used to develop a prior estimate of the snowpack states, and a radiative transfer model was used to relate the modeled states to the observations. Snow depth bias was -53.3 cm prior to the assimilation, and -7.3 cm after the assimilation. Snow depth estimated by a non-DA-based retrieval algorithm using the same PM data had a bias of -18.3 cm. The sensitivity of the assimilation scheme to the grain size uncertainty was evaluated; over the range of grain size uncertainty tested, the posterior snow depth estimate bias ranges from -2.99 cm to -9.85 cm, which is uniformly better than both the prior and retrieval estimates. This study demonstrates the potential applicability of radiometric DA at larger scales.

Predicting Flow Reversals in a Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulated Thermosyphon Using Data Assimilation.

PubMed

Reagan, Andrew J; Dubief, Yves; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

2016-01-01

A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics analogous to the Earth's weather. As is the case for state-of-the-art weather models, we only observe the statistics over a small region of state space, making prediction difficult. To overcome this challenge, data assimilation (DA) methods, and specifically ensemble methods, use the computational model itself to estimate the uncertainty of the model to optimally combine these observations into an initial condition for predicting the future state. Here, we build and verify four distinct DA methods, and then, we perform a twin model experiment with the computational fluid dynamics simulation of the loop using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) to assimilate observations and predict flow reversals. We show that using adaptively shaped localized covariance outperforms static localized covariance with the ETKF, and allows for the use of less observations in predicting flow reversals. We also show that a Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) of the temperature and velocity fields recovers the low dimensional system underlying reversals, finding specific modes which together are predictive of reversal direction.

Predicting Flow Reversals in a Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulated Thermosyphon Using Data Assimilation

PubMed Central

Reagan, Andrew J.; Dubief, Yves; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M.

2016-01-01

A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics analogous to the Earth’s weather. As is the case for state-of-the-art weather models, we only observe the statistics over a small region of state space, making prediction difficult. To overcome this challenge, data assimilation (DA) methods, and specifically ensemble methods, use the computational model itself to estimate the uncertainty of the model to optimally combine these observations into an initial condition for predicting the future state. Here, we build and verify four distinct DA methods, and then, we perform a twin model experiment with the computational fluid dynamics simulation of the loop using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) to assimilate observations and predict flow reversals. We show that using adaptively shaped localized covariance outperforms static localized covariance with the ETKF, and allows for the use of less observations in predicting flow reversals. We also show that a Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) of the temperature and velocity fields recovers the low dimensional system underlying reversals, finding specific modes which together are predictive of reversal direction. PMID:26849061

Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

2008-12-01

A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

Evaluation of an operational real-time irrigation scheduling scheme for drip irrigated citrus fields in Picassent, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dazhi; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Jiménez Bello, Miguel Angel; Martínez Alzamora, Fernando; Vereecken, Harry

2017-04-01

Irrigated agriculture accounts worldwide for 40% of food production and 70% of fresh water withdrawals. Irrigation scheduling aims to minimize water use while maintaining the agricultural production. In this study we were concerned with the real-time automatic control of irrigation, which calculates daily water allocation by combining information from soil moisture sensors and a land surface model. The combination of soil moisture measurements and predictions by the Community Land Model (CLM) using sequential data assimilation (DA) is a promising alternative to improve the estimate of soil and plant water status. The LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) was chosen to assimilate soil water content measured by FDR (Frequency Domain Reflectometry) into CLM and improve the initial (soil moisture) conditions for the next model run. In addition, predictions by the GFS (Global Forecast System) atmospheric simulation model were used as atmospheric input data for CLM to predict an ensemble of possible soil moisture evolutions for the next days. The difference between predicted and target soil water content is defined as the water deficit, and the irrigation amount was calculated by the integrated water deficit over the root zone. The corresponding irrigation time to apply the required water was introduced in SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition system) for each citrus field. In total 6 fields were irrigated according our optimization approach including data assimilation (CLM-DA) and there were also 2 fields following the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) water balance method and 4 fields controlled by farmers as reference. During the real-time irrigation campaign in Valencia from July to October in 2015 and June to October in 2016, the applied irrigation amount, stem water potential and soil moisture content were recorded. The data indicated that 5% 20% less irrigation water was needed for the CLM-DA scheduled fields than for the other fields following the FAO or farmers' method. Stem water potential data indicated that the CLM-DA fields were not suffering from water stress during most of the irrigation period. Even though the CLM-DA fields received the least irrigation water, the orange production was not suppressed either. Our results show the water saving potential of the CLM-DA method compared to other traditional irrigation methods.

Data Assimilation using Artificial Neural Networks for the global FSU atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cintra, Rosangela; Cocke, Steven; Campos Velho, Haroldo

2015-04-01

Data assimilation is the process by which measurements and model predictions are combined to obtain an accurate representation of the state of the modeled system. Uncertainty is the characteristic of the atmosphere, coupled with inevitable inadequacies in observations and computer models and increase errors in weather forecasts. Data assimilation is a technique to generate an initial condition to a weather or climate forecasts. This paper shows the results of a data assimilation technique using artificial neural networks (ANN) to obtain the initial condition to the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for the Florida State University in USA. The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is implemented with Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The ANN data assimilation is made to emulate the initial condition from LETKF to run the FSUGSM. LETKF is a version of Kalman filter with Monte-Carlo ensembles of short-term forecasts to solve the data assimilation problem. The model FSUGSM is a multilevel (27 vertical levels) spectral primitive equation model with a vertical sigma coordinate. All variables are expanded horizontally in a truncated series of spherical harmonic functions (at resolution T63) and a transform technique is applied to calculate the physical processes in real space. The LETKF data assimilation experiments are based in synthetic observations data (surface pressure, absolute temperature, zonal component wind, meridional component wind and humidity). For the ANN data assimilation scheme, we use Multilayer Perceptron (MLP-DA) with supervised training algorithm where ANN receives input vectors with their corresponding response or target output from LETKF scheme. An automatic tool that finds the optimal representation to these ANNs configures the MLP-DA in this experiment. After the training process, the scheme MLP-DA is seen as a function of data assimilation where the inputs are observations and a short-range forecast to each model grid point. The ANNs were trained with data from each month of 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004. A hind-casting experiment for data assimilation cycle using MLP-DA was performed with synthetic observations for January 2005. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANN technique for atmospheric data assimilation, since the analyses (initial conditions) have similar quality to LETKF analyses. The major advantage of using MLP-DA is the computational performance, which is faster than LETKF. The reduced computational cost allows the inclusion of greater number of observations and new data sources and the use of high resolution of models, which ensures the accuracy of analysis and of its weather prediction

Sensitivity analysis of a data assimilation technique for hindcasting and forecasting hydrodynamics of a complex coastal water body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Lei; Hartnett, Michael

2017-02-01

Accurate forecasting of coastal surface currents is of great economic importance due to marine activities such as marine renewable energy and fish farms in coastal regions in recent twenty years. Advanced oceanographic observation systems such as satellites and radars can provide many parameters of interest, such as surface currents and waves, with fine spatial resolution in near real time. To enhance modelling capability, data assimilation (DA) techniques which combine the available measurements with the hydrodynamic models have been used since the 1990s in oceanography. Assimilating measurements into hydrodynamic models makes the original model background states follow the observation trajectory, then uses it to provide more accurate forecasting information. Galway Bay is an open, wind dominated water body on which two coastal radars are deployed. An efficient and easy to implement sequential DA algorithm named Optimal Interpolation (OI) was used to blend radar surface current data into a three-dimensional Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model. Two empirical parameters, horizontal correlation length and DA cycle length (CL), are inherent within OI. No guidance has previously been published regarding selection of appropriate values of these parameters or how sensitive OI DA is to variations in their values. Detailed sensitivity analysis has been performed on both of these parameters and results presented. Appropriate value of DA CL was examined and determined on producing the minimum Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) between radar data and model background states. Analysis was performed to evaluate assimilation index (AI) of using an OI DA algorithm in the model. AI of the half-day forecasting mean vectors' directions was over 50% in the best assimilation model. The ability of using OI to improve model forecasts was also assessed and is reported upon.

Information-Based Analysis of Data Assimilation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, G. S.; Gupta, H. V.; Crow, W. T.; Gong, W.

2013-12-01

Data assimilation is defined as the Bayesian conditioning of uncertain model simulations on observations for the purpose of reducing uncertainty about model states. Practical data assimilation methods make the application of Bayes' law tractable either by employing assumptions about the prior, posterior and likelihood distributions (e.g., the Kalman family of filters) or by using resampling methods (e.g., bootstrap filter). We propose to quantify the efficiency of these approximations in an OSSE setting using information theory and, in an OSSE or real-world validation setting, to measure the amount - and more importantly, the quality - of information extracted from observations during data assimilation. To analyze DA assumptions, uncertainty is quantified as the Shannon-type entropy of a discretized probability distribution. The maximum amount of information that can be extracted from observations about model states is the mutual information between states and observations, which is equal to the reduction in entropy in our estimate of the state due to Bayesian filtering. The difference between this potential and the actual reduction in entropy due to Kalman (or other type of) filtering measures the inefficiency of the filter assumptions. Residual uncertainty in DA posterior state estimates can be attributed to three sources: (i) non-injectivity of the observation operator, (ii) noise in the observations, and (iii) filter approximations. The contribution of each of these sources is measurable in an OSSE setting. The amount of information extracted from observations by data assimilation (or system identification, including parameter estimation) can also be measured by Shannon's theory. Since practical filters are approximations of Bayes' law, it is important to know whether the information that is extracted form observations by a filter is reliable. We define information as either good or bad, and propose to measure these two types of information using partial Kullback-Leibler divergences. Defined this way, good and bad information sum to total information. This segregation of information into good and bad components requires a validation target distribution; in a DA OSSE setting, this can be the true Bayesian posterior, but in a real-world setting the validation target might be determined by a set of in situ observations.

Impact of spatio-temporal scale of adjustment on variational assimilation of hydrologic and hydrometeorological data in operational distributed hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.; Seo, D.; McKee, P.; Corby, R.

2009-12-01

One of the large challenges in data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is to reduce the large degrees of freedom involved in the inverse problem to avoid overfitting. To assess the sensitivity of the performance of DA to the dimensionality of the inverse problem, we design and carry out real-world experiments in which the control vector in variational DA (VAR) is solved at different scales in space and time, e.g., lumped, semi-distributed, and fully-distributed in space, and hourly, 6 hourly, etc., in time. The size of the control vector is related to the degrees of freedom in the inverse problem. For the assessment, we use the prototype 4-dimenational variational data assimilator (4DVAR) that assimilates streamflow, precipitation and potential evaporation data into the NWS Hydrology Laboratory’s Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). In this talk, we present the initial results for a number of basins in Oklahoma and Texas.

Assimilating AOD retrievals from GOCI and VIIRS to forecast surface PM2.5 episodes over Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Jiongming; Liu, Zhiquan; Wang, Xuemei; Bresch, Jamie; Ban, Junmei; Chen, Dan; Kim, Jhoon

2018-04-01

In this study, Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) AOD and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) AOD data were assimilated to forecast surface PM2.5 concentrations over Eastern China, by using the three-dimensional variational (3DAVR) data assimilation (DA) system, to compare DA impacts by assimilating AOD retrievals from these two types of satellites. Three experiments were conducted, including a CONTROL without the AOD assimilation, and GOCIDA and VIIRSDA with the assimilation of AOD retrievals from GOCI and VIIRS, respectively. By utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model, 48-h forecasts were initialized at each 06 UTC from 19 November to 06 December 2013. These forecasts were evaluated with 248 ground-based measurements from the air quality monitoring network across 67 China cities. The results show that overall the CONTROL underestimated surface PM2.5 concentrations, especially over Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ) region and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. Both the GOCIDA and VIIRSDA produced higher surface PM2.5 concentrations mainly over Eastern China, which fits well with the PM2.5 measurements at these eastern sites, with more than 8% error reductions (ER). Moreover, compared to CONTROL, GOCIDA reduced 14.0% and 6.4% error on JJJ region and YRD region, respectively, while VIIRSDA reduced respectively 2.0% and 13.4% error over the corresponding areas. During the heavy polluted period, VIIRSDA improved all sites within YRD region, and GOCIDA enhanced 84% sites. Meanwhile, GOCIDA improved 84% sites on JJJ region, while VIIRSDA did not affect that region. These geographic distinctions might result from spatial dissimilarity between GOCI AOD and VIIRS AOD at time intervals. Moreover, the larger increment produced by AOD DA under stable meteorological conditions could lead to a longer duration (e.g., 1-2 days, > 2 days) of AOD DA impacts. Even though with AOD DA, surface PM2.5 concentrations were still underestimated clearly over heavy polluted periods. And 3% sites performed worse, where low PM2.5 values were observed and CONTROL performed well. With this study, the results indicate that AOD DA can partially improve the accuracy of PM2.5 forecasts. And the obvious geographic differences on forecasts emphasize the potential and importance of combining AOD retrievals from GOCI and VIIRS into data assimilation.

The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; King, Robert; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian

2015-04-01

The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). At present the analysis from separate ocean and atmosphere DA systems are combined to produced coupled forecasts. The aim of coupled DA is to produce a more consistent analysis for coupled forecasts which may lead to less initialisation shock and improved forecast performance. The HadGEM3 coupled model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To isolate the impact of the coupled DA, 13-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day and 10-day forecast runs, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA SST data. The performance of the coupled DA is similar to the existing separate ocean and atmosphere DA systems. This is despite the fact that the assimilation error covariances have not yet been tuned for coupled DA. In addition, the coupled model also exhibits some biases which do not affect the uncoupled models. An example is precipitation and run off errors affecting the ocean salinity. This of course impacts the performance of the ocean data assimilation. This does, however, highlight a particular benefit of data assimilation in that it can help to identify short term model biases by using, for example, the differences between the observations and model background (innovations) and the mean increments. Coupled DA has the distinct advantage that this gives direct information about the coupled model short term biases. By identifying the biases and developing solutions this will improve the short range coupled forecasts, and may also improve the coupled model on climate timescales.

An Investigation of Multi-Satellite Stratospheric Measurements on Tropospheric Weather Predictions over Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Min

The troposphere and stratosphere are the two closest atmospheric layers to the Earth's surface. These two layers are separated by the so-called tropopause. On one hand, these two layers are largely distinguished, on the other hand, lots of evidences proved that connections are also existed between these two layers via various dynamical and chemical feedbacks. Both tropospheric and stratospheric waves can propagate through the tropopause and affect the down streams, despite the fact that this propagation of waves is relatively weaker than the internal interactions in both atmospheric layers. Major improvements have been made in numerical weather predictions (NWP) via data assimilation (DA) in the past 30 years. From optimal interpolation to variational methods and Kalman Filter, great improvements are also made in the development of DA technology. The availability of assimilating satellite radiance observation and the increasing amount of satellite measurements enabled the generation of better atmospheric initials for both global and regional NWP systems. The selection of DA schemes is critical for regional NWP systems. The performance of three major data assimilation (3D-Var, Hybrid, and EnKF) schemes on regional weather forecasts over the continental United States during winter and summer is investigated. Convergence rate in the variational methods can be slightly accelerated especially in summer by the inclusion of ensembles. When the regional model lid is set at 50-mb, larger improvements (10˜20%) in the initials are obtained over the tropopause and lower troposphere. Better forecast skills (˜10%) are obtained in all three DA schemes in summer. Among these three DA schemes, slightly better (˜1%) forecast skills are obtained in Hybrid configuration than 3D-Var. Overall better forecast skills are obtained in summer via EnKF scheme. An extra 22% skill in predicting summer surface pressure but 10% less skills in winter are given by EnKF when compared to 3D-Var. The different forecast skills obtained between variational methods and EnKF are mainly due to the opposite incremental features over ocean and mountainous regions and the inclusion of ensembles. Diurnal variations are observed in predictions. Variations in temperature and humidity are mainly produced by the one-time assimilation in a day and the variations in wind predictions are mainly come from model systematic errors. The assimilation of microwave and infrared satellite measurements alone is compared. Compared to microwave measurements, less than 1% extra performance skill is obtained over the tropopause when infrared measurements are assimilated alone. Large differences are observed in winter analysis when Hybrid scheme is applied. Compared to infrared measurements, an averaged extra 5% performance skill is obtained when microwave measurements are assimilated alone. Predictions made by microwave configuration (MW) shows an extra 3% forecast skill than infrared configuration (IR) at early forecasts. Major differences between MW and IR are located over the tropopause and lower troposphere. Extra 3% and 15% forecast skills for the tropopause wind and temperature are obtained by assimilating microwave measurements alone, respectively. Infrared measurements show slightly better forecast skills at lower troposphere at later forecast lead times. The impacts of the extended stratospheric layers by raising regional model lid from 50-mb to 10-mb and then to 1-mb and the assimilated stratospheric satellite measurements on tropospheric weather predictions are explored in the last section. An extra 10% performance skill over the initial tropopause is obtained by extending the model top to 1-mb. Significant improvements (15˜50%) in initials are obtained over tropopause and lower troposphere by assimilating stratospheric measurements. In the predictions, the stratospheric information can propagate through the tropopause layers and affect the lower troposphere after 2-3 days' propagation. The major improvements made by the extended stratospheric layers and measurements are located in the tropopause. An averaged extra 5% forecast skill is obtained by raising the model lid from 10-mb to 1-mb. An extra 7% forecast skill is obtained in the tropospheric humidity by assimilating stratospheric measurements. Significant improvements in the tropopause and tropospheric predictions are observed when multi-satellite stratospheric measurements extended to 1-mb are assimilated in regional NWP system. Major positive impacts on the tropospheric weather predictions are observed in the first 72-h forecast lead times due to the downward propagation of the microwave stratospheric measurements. A two-season comparison study shows that the assimilation of microwave stratospheric measurements extended to 1-mb will lead to an adjusted stratospheric temperature distribution which may related to an adjusted BDC. Small impacts on the tropospheric general circulations are also found. The tropospheric forecast skills are slightly improved in response to the stratospheric initial conditions and adjusted tropospheric general circulations. For the prediction of heavy precipitation events, an extra 14% forecast skill is obtained when the microwave stratospheric measurements extend to 1-mb are assimilated. The results obtained in this thesis indicate that the assimilation of satellite microwave measurements has the advantages for short-term regional weather forecast using ensemble related data assimilation scheme. Also, this thesis proposed that the assimilation of microwave stratospheric measurements extended to 1-mb can slightly improve the tropospheric weather forecast skills as a result of the tropospheric general circulations responded to the adjusted stratospheric initials.

Toward the S3DVAR data assimilation software for the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcucci, Rossella; Celestino, Simone; Toumi, Ralf; Laccetti, Giuliano

2017-07-01

Data Assimilation (DA) is an uncertainty quantification technique used to incorporate observed data into a prediction model in order to improve numerical forecasted results. The forecasting model used for producing oceanographic prediction into the Caspian Sea is the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Here we propose the computational issues we are facing in a DA software we are developing (we named S3DVAR) which implements a Scalable Three Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation model for assimilating sea surface temperature (SST) values collected into the Caspian Sea with observations provided by the Group of High resolution sea surface temperature (GHRSST). We present the algorithmic strategies we employ and the numerical issues on data collected in two of the months which present the most significant variability in water temperature: August and March.

Coupled Data Assimilation in Navy ESPC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, C. N.; Spence, P. L.; Frolov, S.; Rowley, C. D.; Bishop, C. H.; Wei, M.; Ruston, B.; Smedstad, O. M.

2017-12-01

Data assimilation under global coupled Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) presents significantly greater challenges than data assimilation in forecast models of a single earth system like the ocean and atmosphere. In forecasts of a single component, data assimilation has broad flexibility in adjusting boundary conditions to reduce forecast errors; coupled ESPC requires consistent simultaneous adjustment of multiple components within the earth system: air, ocean, ice, and others. Data assimilation uses error covariances to express how to consistently adjust model conditions in response to differences between forecasts and observations; in coupled ESPC, these covariances must extend from air to ice to ocean such that changes within one fluid are appropriately balanced with corresponding adjustments in the other components. We show several algorithmic solutions that allow us to resolve these challenges. Specifically, we introduce the interface solver method that augments existing stand-alone systems for ocean and atmosphere by allowing them to be influenced by relevant measurements from the coupled fluid. Plans are outlined for implementing coupled data assimilation within ESPC for the Navy's global coupled model. Preliminary results show the impact of assimilating SST-sensitive radiances in the atmospheric model and first results of hybrid DA in a 1/12 degree model of the global ocean.

Streamflow hindcasting in European river basins via multi-parametric ensemble of the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

There have been tremendous improvements in distributed hydrologic modeling (DHM) which made a process-based simulation with a high spatiotemporal resolution applicable on a large spatial scale. Despite of increasing information on heterogeneous property of a catchment, DHM is still subject to uncertainties inherently coming from model structure, parameters and input forcing. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction via DHM using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is, however, often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. If parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by DHM may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we present a global multi-parametric ensemble approach to incorporate parametric uncertainty of DHM in DA to improve streamflow predictions. To effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters with limited number of ensemble, MPR method is incorporated with DA. Lagged particle filtering is utilized to consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes. The hindcasting experiments are implemented to evaluate impacts of the proposed DA method on streamflow predictions in multiple European river basins having different climate and catchment characteristics. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be stable with limited ensemble members and viable for practical uses.

A hybrid approach to generating search subspaces in dynamically constrained 4-dimensional data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaremchuk, Max; Martin, Paul; Beattie, Christopher

2017-09-01

Development and maintenance of the linearized and adjoint code for advanced circulation models is a challenging issue, requiring a significant proportion of total effort in operational data assimilation (DA). The ensemble-based DA techniques provide a derivative-free alternative, which appears to be competitive with variational methods in many practical applications. This article proposes a hybrid scheme for generating the search subspaces in the adjoint-free 4-dimensional DA method (a4dVar) that does not use a predefined ensemble. The method resembles 4dVar in that the optimal solution is strongly constrained by model dynamics and search directions are supplied iteratively using information from the current and previous model trajectories generated in the process of optimization. In contrast to 4dVar, which produces a single search direction from exact gradient information, a4dVar employs an ensemble of directions to form a subspace in order to proceed. In the earlier versions of a4dVar, search subspaces were built using the leading EOFs of either the model trajectory or the projections of the model-data misfits onto the range of the background error covariance (BEC) matrix at the current iteration. In the present study, we blend both approaches and explore a hybrid scheme of ensemble generation in order to improve the performance and flexibility of the algorithm. In addition, we introduce balance constraints into the BEC structure and periodically augment the search ensemble with BEC eigenvectors to avoid repeating minimization over already explored subspaces. Performance of the proposed hybrid a4dVar (ha4dVar) method is compared with that of standard 4dVar in a realistic regional configuration assimilating real data into the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). It is shown that the ha4dVar converges faster than a4dVar and can be potentially competitive with 4dvar both in terms of the required computational time and the forecast skill.

Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation With a Martian GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawson, W.; Richardson, M. I.; McCleese, D. J.; Anderson, J. L.; Chen, Y.; Snyder, C.

2007-12-01

Quantitative study of Mars weather and climate will ultimately stem from analysis of its dynamic and thermodynamic fields. Of all the observations of Mars available to date, such fields are most easily derived from mapping data (radiances) of the martian atmosphere as measured by orbiting infrared spectrometers and radiometers (e.g., MGS / TES and MRO / MCS). Such data-derived products are the solutions to inverse problems, and while individual profile retrievals have been the popular data-derived products in the planetary sciences, the terrestrial meteorological community has gained much ground over the last decade by employing techniques of data assimilation (DA) to analyze radiances. Ancillary information is required to close an inverse problem (i.e., to disambiguate the family of possibilities that are consistent with the observations), and DA practitioners inevitably rely on numerical models for this information (e.g., general circulation models (GCMs)). Data assimilation elicits maximal information content from available observations, and, by way of the physics encoded in the numerical model, spreads this information spatially, temporally, and across variables, thus allowing global extrapolation of limited and non-simultaneous observations. If the model is skillful, then a given, specific model integration can be corrected by the information spreading abilities of DA, and the resulting time sequence of "analysis" states are brought into agreement with the observations. These analysis states are complete, gridded estimates of all the fields one might wish to diagnose for scientific study of the martian atmosphere. Though a numerical model has been used to obtain these estimates, their fidelity rests in their simultaneous consistency with both the observations (to within their stated uncertainties) and the physics contained in the model. In this fashion, radiance observations can, say, be used to deduce the wind field. A new class of DA approaches based on Monte Carlo approximations, "ensemble-based methods," has matured enough to be both appropriate for use in planetary problems and exploitably within the reach of planetary scientists. Capitalizing on this new class of methods, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has developed a framework for ensemble-based DA that is flexible and modular in its use of various forecast models and data sets. The framework is called DART, the Data Assimilation Research Testbed, and it is freely available on-line. We have begun to take advantage of this rich software infrastructure, and are on our way toward performing state of the art DA in the martian atmosphere using Caltech's martian general circulation model, PlanetWRF. We have begun by testing and validating the model within DART under idealized scenarios, and we hope to address actual, available infrared remote sensing datasets from Mars orbiters in the coming year. We shall present the details of this approach and our progress to date.

Advancing Data assimilation for Baltic Monitoring and Forecasting Center: implementation and evaluation of HBP-PDAF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korabel, Vasily; She, Jun; Huess, Vibeke; Woge Nielsen, Jacob; Murawsky, Jens; Nerger, Lars

2017-04-01

The potential of an efficient data assimilation (DA) scheme to improve model forecast skill was successfully demonstrated by many operational centres around the world. The Baltic-North Sea region is one of the most heavily monitored seas. Ferryboxes, buoys, ADCP moorings, shallow water Argo floats, and research vessels are providing more and more near-real time observations. Coastal altimetry has now providing increasing amount of high resolution sea level observations, which will be significantly expanded by the launch of SWOT satellite in next years. This will turn operational DA into a valuable tool for improving forecast quality in the region. This motivated us to focus on advancing DA for the Baltic Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (BAL MFC) in order to create a common framework for operational data assimilation in the Baltic Sea. We have implemented HBM-PDAF system based on the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF), a highly versatile and optimised parallel suit with a choice of sequential schemes originally developed at AWI, and a hydrodynamic HIROMB-BOOS Model (HBM). At initial phase, only the satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Level 3 data has been assimilated. Several related aspects are discussed, including improvements of the forecast quality for both surface and subsurface fields, the estimation of ensemble-based forecast error covariance, as well as possibilities of assimilating new types of observations, such as in-situ salinity and temperature profiles, coastal altimetry, and ice concentration.

Improving Forecasts Through Realistic Uncertainty Estimates: A Novel Data Driven Method for Model Uncertainty Quantification in Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S. D.; Moradkhani, H.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Geenens, G.

2016-12-01

Effective combination of model simulations and observations through Data Assimilation (DA) depends heavily on uncertainty characterisation. Many traditional methods for quantifying model uncertainty in DA require some level of subjectivity (by way of tuning parameters or by assuming Gaussian statistics). Furthermore, the focus is typically on only estimating the first and second moments. We propose a data-driven methodology to estimate the full distributional form of model uncertainty, i.e. the transition density p(xt|xt-1). All sources of uncertainty associated with the model simulations are considered collectively, without needing to devise stochastic perturbations for individual components (such as model input, parameter and structural uncertainty). A training period is used to derive the distribution of errors in observed variables conditioned on hidden states. Errors in hidden states are estimated from the conditional distribution of observed variables using non-linear optimization. The theory behind the framework and case study applications are discussed in detail. Results demonstrate improved predictions and more realistic uncertainty bounds compared to a standard perturbation approach.

Model Uncertainty Quantification Methods For Data Assimilation In Partially Observed Multi-Scale Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S. D.; van Leeuwen, P. J.

2017-12-01

Model Uncertainty Quantification remains one of the central challenges of effective Data Assimilation (DA) in complex partially observed non-linear systems. Stochastic parameterization methods have been proposed in recent years as a means of capturing the uncertainty associated with unresolved sub-grid scale processes. Such approaches generally require some knowledge of the true sub-grid scale process or rely on full observations of the larger scale resolved process. We present a methodology for estimating the statistics of sub-grid scale processes using only partial observations of the resolved process. It finds model error realisations over a training period by minimizing their conditional variance, constrained by available observations. Special is that these realisations are binned conditioned on the previous model state during the minimization process, allowing for the recovery of complex error structures. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through numerical experiments on the multi-scale Lorenz 96' model. We consider different parameterizations of the model with both small and large time scale separations between slow and fast variables. Results are compared to two existing methods for accounting for model uncertainty in DA and shown to provide improved analyses and forecasts.

An evaluation of the potential of Sentinel 1 for improving flash flood predictions via soil moisture-data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenci, Luca; Pulvirenti, Luca; Boni, Giorgio; Chini, Marco; Matgen, Patrick; Gabellani, Simone; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Pierdicca, Nazzareno

2017-11-01

The assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates (soil moisture-data assimilation, SM-DA) into hydrological models has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow simulations. The improved capacity to monitor the closeness to saturation of small catchments, such as those characterizing the Mediterranean region, can be exploited to enhance flash flood predictions. When compared to other microwave sensors that have been exploited for SM-DA in recent years (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer - ASCAT), characterized by low spatial/high temporal resolution, the Sentinel 1 (S1) mission provides an excellent opportunity to monitor systematically soil moisture (SM) at high spatial resolution and moderate temporal resolution. The aim of this research was thus to evaluate the impact of S1-based SM-DA for enhancing flash flood predictions of a hydrological model (Continuum) that is currently exploited for civil protection applications in Italy. The analysis was carried out in a representative Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods, located in north-western Italy, during the time period October 2014-February 2015. It provided some important findings: (i) revealing the potential provided by S1-based SM-DA for improving discharge predictions, especially for higher flows; (ii) suggesting a more appropriate pre-processing technique to be applied to S1 data before the assimilation; and (iii) highlighting that even though high spatial resolution does provide an important contribution in a SM-DA system, the temporal resolution has the most crucial role. S1-derived SM maps are still a relatively new product and, to our knowledge, this is the first work published in an international journal dealing with their assimilation within a hydrological model to improve continuous streamflow simulations and flash flood predictions. Even though the reported results were obtained by analysing a relatively short time period, and thus should be supported by further research activities, we believe this research is timely in order to enhance our understanding of the potential contribution of the S1 data within the SM-DA framework for flash flood risk mitigation.

Sensitivity of CAM-Chem/DART MOPITT CO Assimilation Performance to the Choice of Ensemble System Configuration: A Case Study for Fires in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, A. F., Jr.; Tang, W.

2017-12-01

Assimilating observational data of chemical constituents into a modeling system is a powerful approach in assessing changes in atmospheric composition and estimating associated emissions. However, the results of such chemical data assimilation (DA) experiments are largely subject to various key factors such as: a) a priori information, b) error specification and representation, and c) structural biases in the modeling system. Here we investigate the sensitivity of an ensemble-based data assimilation state and emission estimates to these key factors. We focus on investigating the assimilation performance of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)/CAM-Chem with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) in representing biomass burning plumes in the Amazonia during the 2008 fire season. We conduct the following ensemble DA MOPITT CO experiments: 1) use of monthly-average NCAR's FINN surface fire emissionss, 2) use of daily FINN surface fire emissions, 3) use of daily FINN emissions with climatological injection heights, and 4) use of perturbed FINN emission parameters to represent not only the uncertainties in combustion activity but also in combustion efficiency. We show key diagnostics of assimilation performance for these experiments and verify with available ground-based and aircraft-based measurements.

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability using High-Resolution Cloud Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, P. M.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.

2016-12-01

Norris and da Silva recently published a method to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation (CDA). The gridcolumn model includes assumed-PDF intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used are MODIS cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. The new approach not only significantly reduces mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated observables, but also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other CDA methods, is the lack of information content in passive cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top and thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard is helpful, better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

A weakly-constrained data assimilation approach to address rainfall-runoff model structural inadequacy in streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Haksu; Seo, Dong-Jun; Noh, Seong Jin

2016-11-01

This paper presents a simple yet effective weakly-constrained (WC) data assimilation (DA) approach for hydrologic models which accounts for model structural inadequacies associated with rainfall-runoff transformation processes. Compared to the strongly-constrained (SC) DA, WC DA adjusts the control variables less while producing similarly or more accurate analysis. Hence the adjusted model states are dynamically more consistent with those of the base model. The inadequacy of a rainfall-runoff model was modeled as an additive error to runoff components prior to routing and penalized in the objective function. Two example modeling applications, distributed and lumped, were carried out to investigate the effects of the WC DA approach on DA results. For distributed modeling, the distributed Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model was applied to the TIFM7 Basin in Missouri, USA. For lumped modeling, the lumped SAC-SMA model was applied to nineteen basins in Texas. In both cases, the variational DA (VAR) technique was used to assimilate discharge data at the basin outlet. For distributed SAC-SMA, spatially homogeneous error modeling yielded updated states that are spatially much more similar to the a priori states, as quantified by Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), than spatially heterogeneous error modeling by up to ∼10 times. DA experiments using both lumped and distributed SAC-SMA modeling indicated that assimilating outlet flow using the WC approach generally produce smaller mean absolute difference as well as higher correlation between the a priori and the updated states than the SC approach, while producing similar or smaller root mean square error of streamflow analysis and prediction. Large differences were found in both lumped and distributed modeling cases between the updated and the a priori lower zone tension and primary free water contents for both WC and SC approaches, indicating possible model structural deficiency in describing low flows or evapotranspiration processes for the catchments studied. Also presented are the findings from this study and key issues relevant to WC DA approaches using hydrologic models.

How Hydroclimate Influences the Effectiveness of Particle Filter Data Assimilation of Streamflow in Initializing Short- to Medium-range Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, E.; Wood, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Short- to medium-range (1- to 7-day) streamflow forecasts are important for flood control operations and in issuing potentially life-save flood warnings. In the U.S., the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue such forecasts in real time, depending heavily on a manual data assimilation (DA) approach. Forecasters adjust model inputs, states, parameters and outputs based on experience and consideration of a range of supporting real-time information. Achieving high-quality forecasts from new automated, centralized forecast systems will depend critically on the adequacy of automated DA approaches to make analogous corrections to the forecasting system. Such approaches would further enable systematic evaluation of real-time flood forecasting methods and strategies. Toward this goal, we have implemented a real-time Sequential Importance Resampling particle filter (SIR-PF) approach to assimilate observed streamflow into simulated initial hydrologic conditions (states) for initializing ensemble flood forecasts. Assimilating streamflow alone in SIR-PF improves simulated streamflow and soil moisture during the model spin up period prior to a forecast, with consequent benefits for forecasts. Nevertheless, it only consistently limits error in simulated snow water equivalent during the snowmelt season and in basins where precipitation falls primarily as snow. We examine how the simulated initial conditions with and without SIR-PF propagate into 1- to 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasts. Forecasts are evaluated in terms of reliability and skill over a 10-year period from 2005-2015. The focus of this analysis is on how interactions between hydroclimate and SIR-PF performance impact forecast skill. To this end, we examine forecasts for 5 hydroclimatically diverse basins in the western U.S. Some of these basins receive most of their precipitation as snow, others as rain. Some freeze throughout the mid-winter while others experience significant mid-winter melt events. We describe the methodology and present seasonal and inter-basin variations in DA-enhanced forecast skill.

Carbon cycling of European croplands: A framework for the assimilation of optical and microwave Earth observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revill, Andrew; Sus, Oliver; Williams, Mathew

2013-04-01

Croplands are traditionally managed to maximise the production of food, feed, fibre and bioenergy. Advancements in agricultural technologies, together with land-use change, have approximately doubled World grain harvests over the past 50 years. Cropland ecosystems also play a significant role in the global carbon (C) cycle and, through changes to C storage in response to management activities, they can provide opportunities for climate change mitigation. However, quantifying and understanding the cropland C cycle is complex, due to variable environmental drivers, varied management practices and often highly heterogeneous landscapes. Efforts to upscale processes using simulation models must resolve these challenges. Here we show how data assimilation (DA) approaches can link C cycle modelling to Earth observation (EO) and reduce uncertainty in upscaling. We evaluate a framework for the assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) time series, empirically derived from EO optical and radar sensors, for state-updating a model of crop development and C fluxes. Sensors are selected with fine spatial resolutions (20-50 m) to resolve variability across field sizes typically used in European agriculture. Sequential DA is used to improve the canopy development simulation, which is validated by comparing time-series LAI and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) predictions to independent ground measurements and eddy covariance observations at multiple European cereal crop sites. Significant empirical relationships were established between the LAI ground measurements and the optical reflectance and radar backscatter, which allowed for single LAI calibrations being valid for all the cropland sites for each sensor. The DA of all EO LAI estimates results indicated clear adjustments in LAI and an enhanced representation of daily CO2 exchanges, particularly around the time of peak C uptake. Compared to the simulation without DA, the assimilation of all EO LAI estimates improved the predicted at-harvest cumulative NEE for all cropland sites by an average of 69%. The use of radar sensors, being relatively unaffected by cloud cover and sensitive to the structural properties of the crop, significantly improves the analyses when compared to the combined, and individual, use of the optical LAI estimates. When assimilating the radar derived LAI only, the estimated at-harvest cumulative NEE was improved by 79% when compared to the simulation without DA. Future developments would include the spatial upscaling of the existing model framework and the assimilation of additional state variables, such as soil moisture.

Augmenting an operational forecasting system for the North and Baltic Seas by in situ T and S data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losa, Svetlana; Danilov, Sergey; Schröter, Jens; Nerger, Lars; Maßmann, Silvia; Janssen, Frank

2014-05-01

In order to improve the hydrography forecast of the North and Baltic Seas, the operational circulation model of the German Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) has been augmented by a data assimilation (DA) system. The DA system has been developed based on the Singular Evolution Interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter algorithm (Pham, 1998) coded within the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (Nerger et al., 2004, Nerger and Hiller, 2012). Previously the only data assimilated were sea surface temperature (SST) measurements obtained with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aboard NOAA's polar orbiting satellites. While the quality of the forecast has been significantly improved by assimilating the satellite data (Losa et al., 2012, Losa et al., 2014), assimilation of in situ observational temperature (T) and salinity (S) profiles has allowed for further improvement. Assimilating MARNET time series and CTD and Scanfish measurements, however, required a careful calibration of the DA system with respect to local analysis. The study addresses the problem of the local SEIK analysis accounting for the data within a certain radius. The localisation radius is considered spatially variable and dependent on the system local dynamics. As such, we define the radius of the data influence based on the energy ratio of the baroclinic and barotropic flows. D. T. Pham, J. Verron, L. Gourdeau, 1998. Singular evolutive Kalman filters for data assimilation in oceanography, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Earth and Planetary Sciences, 326, 255-260. L. Nerger, W. Hiller, J. Schröter, 2004. PDAF - The Parallel Data Assimilation Framework: Experiences with Kalman Filtering, In: Zwieflhofer, W., Mozdzynski, G. (Eds.), Use of high performance computing in meteorology: proceedings of the Eleventh ECMWF Workshop on the Use of High Performance Computing in Meteorology. Singapore: World Scientific, Reading, UK, 63-83. L. Nerger, W. Hiller, 2012. Software for Ensemble-based Data Assimilation Systems —Implementation Strategies and Scalability, Computers and Geosciences, 55, 110-118. S. N. Losa, S. Danilov, J. Schröter, L. Nerger, S. Maßmann, F. Janssen, 2012. Assimilating NOAA SST data into the BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Inference about the data. Journal of Marine Systems, 105-108, 152-162. S. N. Losa, S. Danilov, J. Schröter, L. Nerger, S. Maßmann, F. Janssen, 2014. Assimilating NOAA SST data into the BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part.2 Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics. Journal of Marine Systems, 129, 259-270.

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System for Local Modeling Applications and Improved Situational Awareness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

2014-01-01

As part of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Early Adopter (EA) program, the NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has implemented a data assimilation (DA) routine into the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for soil moisture retrievals from the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The SMAP EA program promotes application-driven research to provide a fundamental understanding of how SMAP data products will be used to improve decision-making at operational agencies. SPoRT has partnered with select NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that use output from a real-time regional configuration of LIS, without soil moisture DA, to initialize local numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and enhance situational awareness. Improvements to local NWP with the current LIS have been demonstrated; however, a better representation of the land surface through assimilation of SMOS (and eventually SMAP) retrievals is expected to lead to further model improvement, particularly during warm-season months. SPoRT will collaborate with select WFOs to assess the impact of soil moisture DA on operational forecast situations. Assimilation of the legacy SMOS instrument data provides an opportunity to develop expertise in preparation for using SMAP data products shortly after the scheduled launch on 5 November 2014. SMOS contains a passive L-band radiometer that is used to retrieve surface soil moisture at 35-km resolution with an accuracy of 0.04 cu cm cm (exp -3). SMAP will feature a comparable passive L-band instrument in conjunction with a 3-km resolution active radar component of slightly degraded accuracy. A combined radar-radiometer product will offer unprecedented global coverage of soil moisture at high spatial resolution (9 km) for hydrometeorological applications, balancing the resolution and accuracy of the active and passive instruments, respectively. The LIS software framework manages land surface model (LSM) simulations and includes an Ensemble Kalman Filter for conducting land surface DA. SPoRT has added a module to read, quality-control and bias-correct swaths of Level II SMOS soil moisture retrievals prior to assimilation within LIS. The impact of SMOS DA is being tested using the Noah LSM. Experiments are being conducted to examine the impacts of SMOS soil moisture DA on the resulting LISNoah fields and subsequent NWP simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with LIS-Noah output. LIS-Noah soil moisture will be validated against in situ observations from Texas A&M's North American Soil Moisture Database to reveal the impact and possible improvement in soil moisture trends through DA. WRF model NWP case studies will test the impacts of DA on the simulated near-surface and boundary-layer environments, and precipitation during both quiescent and disturbed weather scenarios. Emphasis will be placed on cases with large analysis increments, especially due to contributions from regional irrigation patterns that are not represented by precipitation input in the baseline LIS-Noah run. This poster presentation will describe the soil moisture DA methodology and highlight LIS-Noah and WRF simulation results with and without assimilation.

Insights about data assimilation frameworks for integrating GRACE with hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumacher, Maike; Kusche, Jürgen; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Döll, Petra; Schuh, Wolf-Dieter

2016-04-01

Improving the understanding of changes in the water cycle represents a challenging objective that requires merging information from various disciplines. Debates exist on selecting an appropriate assimilation technique to integrate GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC) into hydrological models in order to downscale and disaggregate GRACE TWSC, overcome model limitations, and improve monitoring and forecast skills. Yet, the effect of the specific data assimilation technique in conjunction with ill-conditioning, colored noise, resolution mismatch between GRACE and model, and other complications is still unclear. Due to its simplicity, ensemble Kalman filters or smoothers (EnKF/S) are often applied. In this study, we show that modification of the filter approach might open new avenues to improve the integration process. Particularly, we discuss an improved calibration and data assimilation (C/DA) framework (Schumacher et al., 2016), which is based on the EnKF and was extended by the square root analysis scheme (SQRA) and the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter. In addition, we discuss an off-line data blending approach (Van Dijk et al., 2014) that offers the chance to merge multi-model ensembles with GRACE observations. The investigations include: (i) a theoretical comparison, focusing on similarities and differences of the conceptual formulation of the filter algorithms, (ii) a practical comparison, for which the approaches were applied to an ensemble of runs of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM), as well as (iii) an impact assessment of the GRACE error structure on C/DA results. First, a synthetic experiment over the Mississippi River Basin (USA) was used to gain insights about the C/DA set-up before applying it to real data. The results indicated promising performances when considering alternative methods, e.g. applying the SEIK algorithm improved the correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE) of TWSC by 0.1 and 6 mm, with respect to the EnKF. We successfully transferred our framework to the Murray-Darling Basin (Australia), one of the largest and driest river basins over the world. Finally, we provide recommendations on an optimal C/DA strategy for real GRACE data integrations. Schumacher M, Kusche J, Döll P (2016): A Systematic Impact Assessment of GRACE Error Correlation on Data Assimilation in Hydrological Models. J Geod Van Dijk AIJM, Renzullo LJ, Wada Y, Tregoning P (2014): A global water cycle reanalysis (2003-2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci

Paleo Data Assimilation of Pseudo-Tree-Ring-Width Chronologies in a Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah Hassanabadi, B.; Acevedo, W.; Reich, S.; Cubasch, U.

2016-12-01

Using the Time-Averaged Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and a forward model, we assimilate the pseudo Tree-Ring-Width (TRW) chronologies into an Atmospheric Global Circulation model. This study investigates several aspects of Paleo-Data Assimilation (PDA) within a perfect-model set-up: (i) we test the performance of several forward operators in the framework of a PDA-based climate reconstruction, (ii) compare the PDA-based simulations' skill against the free ensemble runs and (iii) inverstigate the skill of the "online" (with cycling) DA and the "off-line" (no-cycling) DA. In our experiments, the "online" (with cycling) PDA approach did not outperform the "off-line" (no-cycling) one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating a particular pseudo-TRW chronology is modulated by the strength of the yearly internal variability of the model at the chronology site. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.

Improving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Su, C.-H.; Crow, W. T.; Robertson, D. E.; Leahy, C.

2014-09-01

Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM-DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM-DA is a particularly attractive tool. Within this context, we assimilate active and passive satellite soil moisture (SSM) retrievals using an ensemble Kalman filter to improve operational flood prediction within a large semi-arid catchment in Australia (>40 000 km2). We assess the importance of accounting for channel routing and the spatial distribution of forcing data by applying SM-DA to a lumped and a semi-distributed scheme of the probability distributed model (PDM). Our scheme also accounts for model error representation and seasonal biases and errors in the satellite data. Before assimilation, the semi-distributed model provided more accurate streamflow prediction (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NS = 0.77) than the lumped model (NS = 0.67) at the catchment outlet. However, this did not ensure good performance at the "ungauged" inner catchments. After SM-DA, the streamflow ensemble prediction at the outlet was improved in both the lumped and the semi-distributed schemes: the root mean square error of the ensemble was reduced by 27 and 31%, respectively; the NS of the ensemble mean increased by 7 and 38%, respectively; the false alarm ratio was reduced by 15 and 25%, respectively; and the ensemble prediction spread was reduced while its reliability was maintained. Our findings imply that even when rainfall is the main driver of flooding in semi-arid catchments, adequately processed SSM can be used to reduce errors in the model soil moisture, which in turn provides better streamflow ensemble prediction. We demonstrate that SM-DA efficacy is enhanced when the spatial distribution in forcing data and routing processes are accounted for. At ungauged locations, SM-DA is effective at improving streamflow ensemble prediction, however, the updated prediction is still poor since SM-DA does not address systematic errors in the model.

Enhanced Soil Moisture Initialization Using Blended Soil Moisture Product and Regional Optimization of LSM-RTM Coupled Land Data Assimilation System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, A. S.; Indu, J.

2017-12-01

Prediction of soil moisture dynamics is high priority research challenge because of the complex land-atmosphere interaction processes. Soil moisture (SM) plays a decisive role in governing water and energy balance of the terrestrial system. An accurate SM estimate is imperative for hydrological and weather prediction models. Though SM estimates are available from microwave remote sensing and land surface model (LSM) simulations, it is affected by uncertainties from several sources during estimation. Past studies have generally focused on land data assimilation (DA) for improving LSM predictions by assimilating soil moisture from single satellite sensor. This approach is limited by the large time gap between two consequent soil moisture observations due to satellite repeat cycle of more than three days at the equator. To overcome this, in the present study, we have performed DA using ensemble products from the soil moisture operational product system (SMOPS) blended soil moisture retrievals from different satellite sensors into Noah LSM. Before the assimilation period, the Noah LSM is initialized by cycling through seven multiple loops from 2008 to 2010 forcing with Global data assimilation system (GDAS) data over the Indian subcontinent. We assimilated SMOPS into Noah LSM for a period of two years from 2010 to 2011 using Ensemble Kalman Filter within NASA's land information system (LIS) framework. Results show that DA has improved Noah LSM prediction with a high correlation of 0.96 and low root mean square difference of 0.0303 m3/m3 (figure 1a). Further, this study has also investigated the notion of assimilating microwave brightness temperature (Tb) as a proxy for SM estimates owing to the close proximity of Tb and SM. Preliminary sensitivity analysis show a strong need for regional parameterization of radiative transfer models (RTMs) to improve Tb simulation. Towards this goal, we have optimized the forward RTM using swarm optimization technique for direct Tb assimilation. The results indicate an improvement in Tb simulations based on the multi polarization difference index approach with a correlation of 0.81 (figure 1b (e)) and bias of < 5 K with respect to the SMOS Tb.

Data Assimilation in the Solar Wind: Challenges and First Results.

PubMed

Lang, Matthew; Browne, Philip; van Leeuwen, Peter Jan; Owens, Mathew

2017-11-01

Data assimilation (DA) is used extensively in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to improve forecast skill. Indeed, improvements in forecast skill in NWP models over the past 30 years have directly coincided with improvements in DA schemes. At present, due to data availability and technical challenges, DA is underused in space weather applications, particularly for solar wind prediction. This paper investigates the potential of advanced DA methods currently used in operational NWP centers to improve solar wind prediction. To develop the technical capability, as well as quantify the potential benefit, twin experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in the solar wind model ENLIL. Boundary conditions are provided by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge coronal model and synthetic observations of density, temperature, and momentum generated every 4.5 h at 0.6 AU. While in situ spacecraft observations are unlikely to be routinely available at 0.6 AU, these techniques can be applied to remote sensing of the solar wind, such as with Heliospheric Imagers or interplanetary scintillation. The LETKF can be seen to improve the state at the observation location and advect that improvement toward the Earth, leading to an improvement in forecast skill in near-Earth space for both the observed and unobserved variables. However, sharp gradients caused by the analysis of a single observation in space resulted in artificial wavelike structures being advected toward Earth. This paper is the first attempt to apply DA to solar wind prediction and provides the first in-depth analysis of the challenges and potential solutions.

Data Assimilation in the Solar Wind: Challenges and First Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Matthew; Browne, Philip; van Leeuwen, Peter Jan; Owens, Mathew

2017-11-01

Data assimilation (DA) is used extensively in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to improve forecast skill. Indeed, improvements in forecast skill in NWP models over the past 30 years have directly coincided with improvements in DA schemes. At present, due to data availability and technical challenges, DA is underused in space weather applications, particularly for solar wind prediction. This paper investigates the potential of advanced DA methods currently used in operational NWP centers to improve solar wind prediction. To develop the technical capability, as well as quantify the potential benefit, twin experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in the solar wind model ENLIL. Boundary conditions are provided by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge coronal model and synthetic observations of density, temperature, and momentum generated every 4.5 h at 0.6 AU. While in situ spacecraft observations are unlikely to be routinely available at 0.6 AU, these techniques can be applied to remote sensing of the solar wind, such as with Heliospheric Imagers or interplanetary scintillation. The LETKF can be seen to improve the state at the observation location and advect that improvement toward the Earth, leading to an improvement in forecast skill in near-Earth space for both the observed and unobserved variables. However, sharp gradients caused by the analysis of a single observation in space resulted in artificial wavelike structures being advected toward Earth. This paper is the first attempt to apply DA to solar wind prediction and provides the first in-depth analysis of the challenges and potential solutions.

Assimilation of SMOS Retrievals in the Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay B.; Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Crosson, William L.

2016-01-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite provides retrievals of soil moisture in the upper 5 cm with a 30-50 km resolution and a mission accuracy requirement of 0.04 cm(sub 3 cm(sub -3). These observations can be used to improve land surface model soil moisture states through data assimilation. In this paper, SMOS soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into the Noah land surface model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter within the NASA Land Information System. Bias correction is implemented using Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching, with points aggregated by either land cover or soil type to reduce sampling error in generating the CDFs. An experiment was run for the warm season of 2011 to test SMOS data assimilation and to compare assimilation methods. Verification of soil moisture analyses in the 0-10 cm upper layer and root zone (0-1 m) was conducted using in situ measurements from several observing networks in the central and southeastern United States. This experiment showed that SMOS data assimilation significantly increased the anomaly correlation of Noah soil moisture with station measurements from 0.45 to 0.57 in the 0-10 cm layer. Time series at specific stations demonstrate the ability of SMOS DA to increase the dynamic range of soil moisture in a manner consistent with station measurements. Among the bias correction methods, the correction based on soil type performed best at bias reduction but also reduced correlations. The vegetation-based correction did not produce any significant differences compared to using a simple uniform correction curve.

Assimilation of SMOS Retrievals in the Land Information System

PubMed Central

Blankenship, Clay B.; Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Crosson, William L.

2018-01-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite provides retrievals of soil moisture in the upper 5 cm with a 30-50 km resolution and a mission accuracy requirement of 0.04 cm3 cm−3. These observations can be used to improve land surface model soil moisture states through data assimilation. In this paper, SMOS soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into the Noah land surface model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter within the NASA Land Information System. Bias correction is implemented using Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching, with points aggregated by either land cover or soil type to reduce sampling error in generating the CDFs. An experiment was run for the warm season of 2011 to test SMOS data assimilation and to compare assimilation methods. Verification of soil moisture analyses in the 0-10 cm upper layer and root zone (0-1 m) was conducted using in situ measurements from several observing networks in the central and southeastern United States. This experiment showed that SMOS data assimilation significantly increased the anomaly correlation of Noah soil moisture with station measurements from 0.45 to 0.57 in the 0-10 cm layer. Time series at specific stations demonstrate the ability of SMOS DA to increase the dynamic range of soil moisture in a manner consistent with station measurements. Among the bias correction methods, the correction based on soil type performed best at bias reduction but also reduced correlations. The vegetation-based correction did not produce any significant differences compared to using a simple uniform correction curve. PMID:29367795

Evaluating a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter snow cover data assimilation method to estimate SWE within a high-resolution hydrologic modeling framework across Western US mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oaida, C. M.; Andreadis, K.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.; Levoe, S.

2017-12-01

Accurately estimating how much snow water equivalent (SWE) is stored in mountainous regions characterized by complex terrain and snowmelt-driven hydrologic cycles is not only greatly desirable, but also a big challenge. Mountain snowpack exhibits high spatial variability across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales due to a multitude of physical and climatic factors, making it difficult to observe or estimate in its entirety. Combing remotely sensed data and high resolution hydrologic modeling through data assimilation (DA) has the potential to provide a spatially and temporally continuous SWE dataset at horizontal scales that capture sub-grid snow spatial variability and are also relevant to stakeholders such as water resource managers. Here, we present the evaluation of a new snow DA approach that uses a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in tandem with the Variable Infiltration Capacity macro-scale hydrologic model across the Western United States, at a daily temporal resolution, and a horizontal resolution of 1.75 km x 1.75 km. The LETKF is chosen for its relative simplicity, ease of implementation, and computational efficiency and scalability. The modeling/DA system assimilates daily MODIS Snow Covered Area and Grain Size (MODSCAG) fractional snow cover over, and has been developed to efficiently calculate SWE estimates over extended periods of time and covering large regional-scale areas at relatively high spatial resolution, ultimately producing a snow reanalysis-type dataset. Here we focus on the assessment of SWE produced by the DA scheme over several basins in California's Sierra Nevada Mountain range where Airborne Snow Observatory data is available, during the last five water years (2013-2017), which include both one of the driest and one of the wettest years. Comparison against such a spatially distributed SWE observational product provides a greater understanding of the model's ability to estimate SWE and SWE spatial variability, and highlights under which conditions snow cover DA can add value in estimating SWE.

Setting Up a Sentinel 1 Based Soil Moisture - Data Assimilation System for Flash Flood Risk Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenci, Luca; Pulvirenti, Luca; Boni, Giorgio; Chini, Marco; Matgen, Patrick; Gabellani, Simone; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Pierdicca, Nazzareno

2017-04-01

Several studies have shown that the assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture products (SM-DA) within hydrological modelling is able to reduce the uncertainty of discharge predictions. This can be exploited for improving early warning systems (EWS) and it is thus particularly useful for flash flood risk mitigation (Cenci et al., 2016a). The objective of this research was to evaluate the potentialities of an advanced SM-DA system based on the assimilation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations derived from Sentinel 1 (S1) acquisitions. A time-continuous, spatially-distributed, physically-based hydrological model was used: Continuum (Silvestro et al., 2013). The latter is currently exploited for civil protection activities in Italy, both at national and at regional scale. Therefore, its adoption allows for a better understanding of the real potentialities of the aforementioned SM-DA system for improving EWS. The novelty of this research consisted in the use of S1-derived SM products obtained by using a multitemporal retrieval algorithm (Cenci et al., 2016b) in which the correction of the vegetation effect was obtained by means of both SAR (Cosmo-SkyMed) and optical (Landsat) images. The maps were characterised by a comparatively higher spatial/lower temporal resolution (respectively, 100 m and 12 days) w.r.t. maps obtained from commonly used microwave sensors for such applications (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer, ASCAT). The experiment was carried out in the period October 2014 - February 2015 in an exemplifying Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods: the Orba Basin (Italy). The Nudging assimilation scheme was chosen for its computational efficiency, particularly useful for operational applications. The impact of the assimilation was evaluated by comparing simulated and observed discharge values. In particular, it was analysed the impact of the assimilation on higher flows. Results were compared with those obtained by assimilating an ASCAT-derived SM product (H08) that can be considered at high spatial resolution (1 km) for hydrological applications and high temporal resolution (36 h) (Wagner et al., 2013). Findings revealed the potentialities of a S1-based SM-DA system for improving discharge predictions, especially of higher flows, and suggested the more appropriate pre-processing techniques to apply to S1 data before the assimilation. The comparison with H08 highlighted the importance of the temporal resolution of the observations. Results are promising but further research is needed before the actual implementation of the aforementioned S1-based SM-DA system for operational applications. References - Cenci L., et al.: Assimilation of H-SAF Soil Moisture Products for Flash Flood Early Warning Systems. Case Study: Mediterranean Catchments, IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens.}, 9(12), 5634-5646, doi:10.1109/JSTARS.2016.2598475, 2016a. - Cenci L., et al.: Satellite Soil Moisture Assimilation: Preliminary Assessment of the Sentinel 1 Potentialities, 2016 IEEE Int. Geosci. Remote Sens. Symp. (IGARSS), Beijing, 3098-3101, doi:10.1109/IGARSS.2016.7729801, 2016b. - Silvestro F., et al.: Exploiting Remote Sensing Land Surface Temperature in Distributed Hydrological Modelling: the Example of the Continuum Model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17(1), 39-62, doi:10.5194/hess-17-39-2013, 2013. - Wagner W., et al.: The ASCAT Soil Moisture Product: A Review of its Specifications, Validation Results, and Emerging Applications, Meteorol. Zeitschrift, 22(1), 5-33, doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0399, 2013.

SSDA code to apply data assimilation in soil water flow modeling: Documentation and user manual

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil water flow models are based on simplified assumptions about the mechanisms, processes, and parameters of water retention and flow. That causes errors in soil water flow model predictions. Data assimilation (DA) with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) corrects modeling results based on measured s...

Impact of ozone observations on the structure of a tropical cyclone using coupled atmosphere-chemistry data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, S.; Park, S. K.; Zupanski, M.

2015-04-01

Since the air quality forecast is related to both chemistry and meteorology, the coupled atmosphere-chemistry data assimilation (DA) system is essential to air quality forecasting. Ozone (O3) plays an important role in chemical reactions and is usually assimilated in chemical DA. In tropical cyclones (TCs), O3 usually shows a lower concentration inside the eyewall and an elevated concentration around the eye, impacting atmospheric as well as chemical variables. To identify the impact of O3 observations on TC structure, including atmospheric and chemical information, we employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with an ensemble-based DA algorithm - the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF). For a TC case that occurred over the East Asia, our results indicate that the ensemble forecast is reasonable, accompanied with larger background state uncertainty over the TC, and also over eastern China. Similarly, the assimilation of O3 observations impacts atmospheric and chemical variables near the TC and over eastern China. The strongest impact on air quality in the lower troposphere was over China, likely due to the pollution advection. In the vicinity of the TC, however, the strongest impact on chemical variables adjustment was at higher levels. The impact on atmospheric variables was similar in both over China and near the TC. The analysis results are validated using several measures that include the cost function, root-mean-squared error with respect to observations, and degrees of freedom for signal (DFS). All measures indicate a positive impact of DA on the analysis - the cost function and root mean square error have decreased by 16.9 and 8.87%, respectively. In particular, the DFS indicates a strong positive impact of observations in the TC area, with a weaker maximum over northeast China.

Practical implementation of a particle filter data assimilation approach to estimate initial hydrologic conditions and initialize medium-range streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Elizabeth; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Mendoza, Pablo; Newman, Andy; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

In an automated forecast system, hydrologic data assimilation (DA) performs the valuable function of correcting raw simulated watershed model states to better represent external observations, including measurements of streamflow, snow, soil moisture, and the like. Yet the incorporation of automated DA into operational forecasting systems has been a long-standing challenge due to the complexities of the hydrologic system, which include numerous lags between state and output variations. To help demonstrate that such methods can succeed in operational automated implementations, we present results from the real-time application of an ensemble particle filter (PF) for short-range (7 day lead) ensemble flow forecasts in western US river basins. We use the System for Hydromet Applications, Research and Prediction (SHARP), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in collaboration with the University of Washington, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. SHARP is a fully automated platform for short-term to seasonal hydrologic forecasting applications, incorporating uncertainty in initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and in hydrometeorological predictions through ensemble methods. In this implementation, IHC uncertainty is estimated by propagating an ensemble of 100 temperature and precipitation time series through conceptual and physically-oriented models. The resulting ensemble of derived IHCs exhibits a broad range of possible soil moisture and snow water equivalent (SWE) states. The PF selects and/or weights and resamples the IHCs that are most consistent with external streamflow observations, and uses the particles to initialize a streamflow forecast ensemble driven by ensemble precipitation and temperature forecasts downscaled from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). We apply this method in real-time for several basins in the western US that are important for water resources management, and perform a hindcast experiment to evaluate the utility of PF-based data assimilation on streamflow forecasts skill. This presentation describes findings, including a comparison of sequential and non-sequential particle weighting methods.

DARLA: Data Assimilation and Remote Sensing for Littoral Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jessup, A.; Holman, R. A.; Chickadel, C.; Elgar, S.; Farquharson, G.; Haller, M. C.; Kurapov, A. L.; Özkan-Haller, H. T.; Raubenheimer, B.; Thomson, J. M.

2012-12-01

DARLA is 5-year collaborative project that couples state-of-the-art remote sensing and in situ measurements with advanced data assimilation (DA) modeling to (a) evaluate and improve remote sensing retrieval algorithms for environmental parameters, (b) determine the extent to which remote sensing data can be used in place of in situ data in models, and (c) infer bathymetry for littoral environments by combining remotely-sensed parameters and data assimilation models. The project uses microwave, electro-optical, and infrared techniques to characterize the littoral ocean with a focus on wave and current parameters required for DA modeling. In conjunction with the RIVET (River and Inlets) Project, extensive in situ measurements provide ground truth for both the remote sensing retrieval algorithms and the DA modeling. Our goal is to use remote sensing to constrain data assimilation models of wave and circulation dynamics in a tidal inlet and surrounding beaches. We seek to improve environmental parameter estimation via remote sensing fusion, determine the success of using remote sensing data to drive DA models, and produce a dynamically consistent representation of the wave, circulation, and bathymetry fields in complex environments. The objectives are to test the following three hypotheses: 1. Environmental parameter estimation using remote sensing techniques can be significantly improved by fusion of multiple sensor products. 2. Data assimilation models can be adequately constrained (i.e., forced or guided) with environmental parameters derived from remote sensing measurements. 3. Bathymetry on open beaches, river mouths, and at tidal inlets can be inferred from a combination of remotely-sensed parameters and data assimilation models. Our approach is to conduct a series of field experiments combining remote sensing and in situ measurements to investigate signature physics and to gather data for developing and testing DA models. A preliminary experiment conducted at the Field Research Facility at Duck, NC in September 2010 focused on assimilation of tower-based electo-optical, infrared, and radar measurements in predictions of longshore currents. Here we provide an overview of our contribution to the RIVET I experiment at New River Inlet, NC in May 2012. During the course of the 3-week measurement period, continuous tower-based remote sensing measurements were made using electro-optical, infrared, and radar techniques covering the nearshore zone and the inlet mouth. A total of 50 hours of airborne measurements were made using high-resolution infrared imagers and a customized along track interferometric synthetic aperture radar (ATI SAR). The airborne IR imagery provides kilometer-scale mapping of frontal features that evolve as the inlet flow interacts with the oceanic wave and current fields. The ATI SAR provides maps of the two-dimensional surface currents. Near-surface measurements of turbulent velocities and surface waves using SWIFT drifters, designed to measures near-surface properties relevant to remote sensing, complimented the extensive in situ measurements by RIVET investigators.

Extraction of wind and temperature information from hybrid 4D-Var assimilation of stratospheric ozone using NAVGEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Douglas R.; Hoppel, Karl W.; Kuhl, David D.

2018-03-01

Extraction of wind and temperature information from stratospheric ozone assimilation is examined within the context of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) hybrid 4-D variational assimilation (4D-Var) data assimilation (DA) system. Ozone can improve the wind and temperature through two different DA mechanisms: (1) through the flow-of-the-day ensemble background error covariance that is blended together with the static background error covariance and (2) via the ozone continuity equation in the tangent linear model and adjoint used for minimizing the cost function. All experiments assimilate actual conventional data in order to maintain a similar realistic troposphere. In the stratosphere, the experiments assimilate simulated ozone and/or radiance observations in various combinations. The simulated observations are constructed for a case study based on a 16-day cycling truth experiment (TE), which is an analysis with no stratospheric observations. The impact of ozone on the analysis is evaluated by comparing the experiments to the TE for the last 6 days, allowing for a 10-day spin-up. Ozone assimilation benefits the wind and temperature when data are of sufficient quality and frequency. For example, assimilation of perfect (no applied error) global hourly ozone data constrains the stratospheric wind and temperature to within ˜ 2 m s-1 and ˜ 1 K. This demonstrates that there is dynamical information in the ozone distribution that can potentially be used to improve the stratosphere. This is particularly important for the tropics, where radiance observations have difficulty constraining wind due to breakdown of geostrophic balance. Global ozone assimilation provides the largest benefit when the hybrid blending coefficient is an intermediate value (0.5 was used in this study), rather than 0.0 (no ensemble background error covariance) or 1.0 (no static background error covariance), which is consistent with other hybrid DA studies. When perfect global ozone is assimilated in addition to radiance observations, wind and temperature error decreases of up to ˜ 3 m s-1 and ˜ 1 K occur in the tropical upper stratosphere. Assimilation of noisy global ozone (2 % errors applied) results in error reductions of ˜ 1 m s-1 and ˜ 0.5 K in the tropics and slightly increased temperature errors in the Northern Hemisphere polar region. Reduction of the ozone sampling frequency also reduces the benefit of ozone throughout the stratosphere, with noisy polar-orbiting data having only minor impacts on wind and temperature when assimilated with radiances. An examination of ensemble cross-correlations between ozone and other variables shows that a single ozone observation behaves like a potential vorticity (PV) charge, or a monopole of PV, with rotation about a vertical axis and vertically oriented temperature dipole. Further understanding of this relationship may help in designing observation systems that would optimize the impact of ozone on the dynamics.

The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian; Guiavarch, Catherine; Shelly, Ann

2014-05-01

The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HADGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). This model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To show the impact of coupled DA, one-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day forecast runs, started twice a day, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA data. These all show the coupled DA system functioning well. Evidence of imbalances and initialisation shocks has also been looked for.

Advancing Data Assimilation in Operational Hydrologic Forecasting: Progresses, Challenges, and Emerging Opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Yuqiong; Weerts, A.; Clark, M.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J; Kumar, S.; Moradkhani, H.; Seo, D.-J.; Schwanenberg, D.; Smith, P.; van Dijk, A. I. J. M.;

ASCAT soil moisture data assimilation through the Ensemble Kalman Filter for improving streamflow simulation in Mediterranean catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loizu, Javier; Massari, Christian; Álvarez-Mozos, Jesús; Casalí, Javier; Goñi, Mikel

2016-04-01

Assimilation of Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) observations obtained from remote sensing techniques have been shown to improve streamflow prediction at different time scales of hydrological modeling. Different sensors and methods have been tested for their application in SSM estimation, especially in the microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum. The available observation devices include passive microwave sensors such as the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) onboard the Aqua satellite and the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. On the other hand, active microwave systems include Scatterometers (SCAT) onboard the European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS-1/2) and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard MetOp-A satellite. Data assimilation (DA) include different techniques that have been applied in hydrology and other fields for decades. These techniques include, among others, Kalman Filtering (KF), Variational Assimilation or Particle Filtering. From the initial KF method, different techniques were developed to suit its application to different systems. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), extensively applied in hydrological modeling improvement, shows its capability to deal with nonlinear model dynamics without linearizing model equations, as its main advantage. The objective of this study was to investigate whether data assimilation of SSM ASCAT observations, through the EnKF method, could improve streamflow simulation of mediterranean catchments with TOPLATS hydrological complex model. The DA technique was programmed in FORTRAN, and applied to hourly simulations of TOPLATS catchment model. TOPLATS (TOPMODEL-based Land-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme) was applied on its lumped version for two mediterranean catchments of similar size, located in northern Spain (Arga, 741 km2) and central Italy (Nestore, 720 km2). The model performs a separated computation of energy and water balances. In those balances, the soil is divided into two layers, the upper Surface Zone (SZ), and the deeper Transmission Zone (TZ). In this study, the SZ depth was fixed to 5 cm, for adequate assimilation of observed data. Available data was distributed as follows: first, the model was calibrated for the 2001-2007 period; then the 2007-2010 period was used for satellite data rescaling purposes. Finally, data assimilation was applied during the validation (2010-2013) period. Application of the EnKF required the following steps: 1) rescaling of satellite data, 2) transformation of rescaled data into Soil Water Index (SWI) through a moving average filter, where a T = 9 calibrated value was applied, 3) generation of a 50 member ensemble through perturbation of inputs (rainfall and temperature) and three selected parameters, 4) validation of the ensemble through the compliance of two criteria based on ensemble's spread, mean square error and skill and, 5) Kalman Gain calculation. In this work, comparison of three satellite data rescaling techniques: 1) cumulative distribution Function (CDF) matching, 2) variance matching and 3) linear least square regression was also performed. Results obtained in this study showed slight improvements of hourly Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) in both catchments, with the different rescaling methods evaluated. Larger improvements were found in terms of seasonal simulated volume error reduction.

Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acevedo, Walter; Fallah, Bijan; Reich, Sebastian; Cubasch, Ulrich

2017-05-01

Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in the model. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.

Kalman filter data assimilation: targeting observations and parameter estimation.

PubMed

Bellsky, Thomas; Kostelich, Eric J; Mahalov, Alex

2014-06-01

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

Kalman filter data assimilation: Targeting observations and parameter estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bellsky, Thomas, E-mail: bellskyt@asu.edu; Kostelich, Eric J.; Mahalov, Alex

2014-06-15

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly locatedmore » observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.« less

GRACE-Assimilated Drought Indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, Bruce; Teng, Bill; Loeser, Carlee; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matt

2018-01-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.

NASA SPoRT Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Transition Activities Using WRF, LIS and GSI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Blankenship, Clay B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Berndt, Emily B.

2014-01-01

weather research and forecasting ===== The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has numerous modeling and data assimilation (DA) activities in which the WRF model is a key component. SPoRT generates realtime, research satellite products from the MODIS and VIIRS instruments, making the data available to NOAA/NWS partners running the WRF/EMS, including: (1) 2-km northwestern-hemispheric SST composite, (2) daily, MODIS green vegetation fraction (GVF) over CONUS, and (3) NASA Land Information System (LIS) runs of the Noah LSM over the southeastern CONUS. Each of these datasets have been utilized by specific SPoRT partners in local EMS model runs, with select offices evaluating the impacts using a set of automated scripts developed by SPoRT that manage data acquisition and run the NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package. SPoRT is engaged in DA research with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Ensemble Kalman Filter in LIS for soil moisture DA. Ongoing DA projects using GSI include comparing the impacts of assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances versus retrieved profiles, and an analysis of extra-tropical cyclones with intense non-convective winds. As part of its Early Adopter activities for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, SPoRT is conducting bias correction and soil moisture DA within LIS to improve simulations using the NASA Unified-WRF (NU-WRF) for both the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity and upcoming SMAP mission data. SPoRT has also incorporated real-time global GVF data into LIS and WRF from the VIIRS product being developed by NOAA/NESDIS. This poster will highlight the research and transition activities SPoRT conducts using WRF, NU-WRF, EMS, LIS, and GSI.

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas, R. Quinn; Brooks, Evan B.; Jersild, Annika L.

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model–data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions,more » DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 10 5 km 2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO 2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO 2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO 2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present predictions of stem biomass productivity under elevated CO 2, decreased precipitation, and increased nutrient availability that include estimates of uncertainty for the southeastern US. Overall, we (1) demonstrated how three decades of research in southeastern US planted pine forests can be used to develop DA techniques that use multiple locations, multiple data streams, and multiple ecosystem experiment types to optimize parameters and (2) developed a tool for the development of future predictions of forest productivity for natural resource managers that leverage a rich dataset of integrated ecosystem observations across a region.« less

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

DOE PAGES

Thomas, R. Quinn; Brooks, Evan B.; Jersild, Annika L.; ...

2017-07-26

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model–data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions,more » DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 10 5 km 2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO 2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO 2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO 2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present predictions of stem biomass productivity under elevated CO 2, decreased precipitation, and increased nutrient availability that include estimates of uncertainty for the southeastern US. Overall, we (1) demonstrated how three decades of research in southeastern US planted pine forests can be used to develop DA techniques that use multiple locations, multiple data streams, and multiple ecosystem experiment types to optimize parameters and (2) developed a tool for the development of future predictions of forest productivity for natural resource managers that leverage a rich dataset of integrated ecosystem observations across a region.« less

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn Thomas, R.; Brooks, Evan B.; Jersild, Annika L.; Ward, Eric J.; Wynne, Randolph H.; Albaugh, Timothy J.; Dinon-Aldridge, Heather; Burkhart, Harold E.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Fox, Thomas R.; Gonzalez-Benecke, Carlos A.; Martin, Timothy A.; Noormets, Asko; Sampson, David A.; Teskey, Robert O.

2017-07-01

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model-data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions, DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 105 km2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present predictions of stem biomass productivity under elevated CO2, decreased precipitation, and increased nutrient availability that include estimates of uncertainty for the southeastern US. Overall, we (1) demonstrated how three decades of research in southeastern US planted pine forests can be used to develop DA techniques that use multiple locations, multiple data streams, and multiple ecosystem experiment types to optimize parameters and (2) developed a tool for the development of future predictions of forest productivity for natural resource managers that leverage a rich dataset of integrated ecosystem observations across a region.

Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to assumptions and inputs in the algorithms that are incompatible with those encoded within CLM. It is probable that VOD describes changes in biomass more accurately than absolute values, so in additional to sequential assimilation of observations, we have tested alternative filter algorithms, and assimilating VOD anomalies.

Assimilation of neural network soil moisture in land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Fernandez, Nemesio; de Rosnay, Patricia; Albergel, Clement; Aires, Filipe; Prigent, Catherine; Kerr, Yann; Richaume, Philippe; Muñoz-Sabater, Joaquin; Drusch, Matthias

2017-04-01

In this study a set of land surface data assimilation (DA) experiments making use of satellite derived soil moisture (SM) are presented. These experiments have two objectives: (1) to test the information content of satellite remote sensing of soil moisture for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and (2) to test a simplified assimilation of these data through the use of a Neural Network (NN) retrieval. Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data were used. The SMOS soil moisture dataset was obtained specifically for this project training a NN using SMOS brightness temperatures as input and using as reference for the training European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) H-TESSEL SM fields. In this way, the SMOS NN SM dataset has a similar climatology to that of the model and it does not present a global bias with respect to the model. The DA experiments are computed using a surface-only Land Data Assimilation System (so-LDAS) based on the HTESSEL land surface model. This system is very computationally efficient and allows to perform long surface assimilation experiments (one whole year, 2012). SMOS NN SM DA experiments are compared to ASCAT SM DA experiments. In both cases, experiments with and without 2 m air temperature and relative humidity DA are discussed using different observation errors for the ASCAT and SMOS datasets. Seasonal, geographical and soil-depth-related differences between the results of those experiments are presented and discussed. The different SM analysed fields are evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM. On average, the SM analysis gives in general similar results to the model open loop with no assimilation even if significant differences can be seen for specific sites with in situ measurements. The sensitivity to observation errors to the SM dataset slightly differs depending on the networks of in situ measurements, however it is relatively low for the tests conducted here. Finally, the effect of the soil moisture analysis on the NWP is evaluated comparing experiments for different configurations of the system, with and without (Open Loop) soil moisture data assimilation. ssimilation of ASCAT soil moisture improves the forecast in the tropics and adds information with respect to the near surface conventional observations. In contrast, SMOS degrades the forecast in the Tropics in July-September. In the Southern hemisphere ASCAT degrades the forecast in July-September both alone and using 2m air temperature and relative humidity. On the other hand, experiments using SMOS (even without screen level variables) improve the forecast for all the seasons, in particular, in July-December. In the northern hemisphere both with ASCAT and SMOS, the experiments using 2m air temperature and relative humidity improve the forecast in April-September. SMOS alone has a significant positive effect in July-September for experiments with low observation error. Maps of the forecast skill with respect to the open loop experiment show that SMOS improves the forecast in North America and to a lesser extent in northern Asia for up to 72 hours.

Improved Assimilation of Streamflow and Satellite Soil Moisture with the Evolutionary Particle Filter and Geostatistical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Hongxiang; Moradkhani, Hamid; Abbaszadeh, Peyman

2017-04-01

Assimilation of satellite soil moisture and streamflow data into hydrologic models using has received increasing attention over the past few years. Currently, these observations are increasingly used to improve the model streamflow and soil moisture predictions. However, the performance of this land data assimilation (DA) system still suffers from two limitations: 1) satellite data scarcity and quality; and 2) particle weight degeneration. In order to overcome these two limitations, we propose two possible solutions in this study. First, the general Gaussian geostatistical approach is proposed to overcome the limitation in the space/time resolution of satellite soil moisture products thus improving their accuracy at uncovered/biased grid cells. Secondly, an evolutionary PF approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), the so-called EPF-MCMC, is developed to further reduce weight degeneration and improve the robustness of the land DA system. This study provides a detailed analysis of the joint and separate assimilation of streamflow and satellite soil moisture into a distributed Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model, with the use of recently developed EPF-MCMC and the general Gaussian geostatistical approach. Performance is assessed over several basins in the USA selected from Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and located in different climate regions. The results indicate that: 1) the general Gaussian approach can predict the soil moisture at uncovered grid cells within the expected satellite data quality threshold; 2) assimilation of satellite soil moisture inferred from the general Gaussian model can significantly improve the soil moisture predictions; and 3) in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic measures, the EPF-MCMC can achieve better streamflow predictions. These results recommend that the geostatistical model is a helpful tool to aid the remote sensing technique and the EPF-MCMC is a reliable and effective DA approach in hydrologic applications.

Evaluation of the Tropical Pacific Observing System from the Data Assimilation Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

hereafter, SIDA systems) have the capacity to assimilate salinity profiles imposing a multivariate (mainly T-S) balance relationship (summarized in...Fujii et al., 2011). Current SIDA systems in operational centers generally use Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCM) with resolution typically 1...long-term (typically 20-30 years) ocean DA runs are often performed with SIDA systems in operational centers for validation and calibration of SI

OpenDA-WFLOW framework for improving hydrologic predictions using distributed hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; Kockx, Arno; Hummel, Stef

2017-04-01

Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions (Liu et al., 2012) and increase the potential for early warning and/or smart water management. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not yet been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. The objective of this work is to highlight the development of a generic linkage of the open source OpenDA package and the open source community hydrologic modeling framework Openstreams/WFLOW and its application in operational hydrological forecasting on various spatial scales. The coupling between OpenDA and Openstreams/wflow framework is based on the emerging standard Basic Model Interface (BMI) as advocated by CSDMS using cross-platform webservices (i.e. Apache Thrift) developed by Hut et al. (2016). The potential application of the OpenDA-WFLOW for operational hydrologic forecasting including its integration with Delft-FEWS (used by more than 40 operational forecast centers around the world (Werner et al., 2013)) is demonstrated by the presented case studies. We will also highlight the possibility to give real-time insight into the working of the DA methods applied for supporting the forecaster as mentioned as one of the burning issues by Liu et al., (2012).

Optimality in Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, Grey; Yatheendradas, Soni

2016-04-01

It costs a lot more to develop and launch an earth-observing satellite than it does to build a data assimilation system. As such, we propose that it is important to understand the efficiency of our assimilation algorithms at extracting information from remote sensing retrievals. To address this, we propose that it is necessary to adopt completely general definition of "optimality" that explicitly acknowledges all differences between the parametric constraints of our assimilation algorithm (e.g., Gaussianity, partial linearity, Markovian updates) and the true nature of the environmetnal system and observing system. In fact, it is not only possible, but incredibly straightforward, to measure the optimality (in this more general sense) of any data assimilation algorithm as applied to any intended model or natural system. We measure the information content of remote sensing data conditional on the fact that we are already running a model and then measure the actual information extracted by data assimilation. The ratio of the two is an efficiency metric, and optimality is defined as occurring when the data assimilation algorithm is perfectly efficient at extracting information from the retrievals. We measure the information content of the remote sensing data in a way that, unlike triple collocation, does not rely on any a priori presumed relationship (e.g., linear) between the retrieval and the ground truth, however, like triple-collocation, is insensitive to the spatial mismatch between point-based measurements and grid-scale retrievals. This theory and method is therefore suitable for use with both dense and sparse validation networks. Additionally, the method we propose is *constructive* in the sense that it provides guidance on how to improve data assimilation systems. All data assimilation strategies can be reduced to approximations of Bayes' law, and we measure the fractions of total information loss that are due to individual assumptions or approximations in the prior (i.e., the model uncertainty distribution), and in the likelihood (i.e., the observation operator and observation uncertainty distribution). In this way, we can directly identify the parts of a data assimilation algorithm that contribute most to assimilation error in a way that (unlike traditional DA performance metrics) considers nonlinearity in the model and observation and non-optimality in the fit between filter assumptions and the real system. To reiterate, the method we propose is theoretically rigorous but also dead-to-rights simple, and can be implemented in no more than a few hours by a competent programmer. We use this to show that careful applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter use substantially less than half of the information contained in remote sensing soil moisture retrievals (LPRM, AMSR-E, SMOS, and SMOPS). We propose that this finding may explain some of the results from several recent large-scale experiments that show lower-than-expected value to assimilating soil moisture retrievals into land surface models forced by high-quality precipitation data. Our results have important implications for the SMAP mission because over half of the SMAP-affiliated "early adopters" plan to use the EnKF as their primary method for extracting information from SMAP retrievals.

Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties. Part I: Methodology and evaluation

DOE PAGES

Li, Zhijin; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Feng, Sha; ...

2015-01-20

We produce fine-resolution, three-dimensional fields of meteorological and other variables for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system is implemented in a multiscale data assimilation (MS-DA) framework that is used within the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2 km. The MS-DA algorithm uses existing reanalysis products and constrains fine-scale atmospheric properties by assimilating high-resolution observations. A set of experiments show that the data assimilation analysis realistically reproduces the intensity, structure, and time evolution of clouds and precipitation associated with a mesoscale convective system.more » Evaluations also show that the large-scale forcing derived from the fine-resolution analysis has an overall accuracy comparable to the existing ARM operational product. For enhanced applications, the fine-resolution fields are used to characterize the contribution of subgrid variability to the large-scale forcing and to derive hydrometeor forcing, which are presented in companion papers.« less

Comparisons of Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation and Model Output Statistics in Improving Atmospheric Chemistry Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Chaoqun; Wang, Tijian; Zang, Zengliang; Li, Zhijin

2018-07-01

Atmospheric chemistry models usually perform badly in forecasting wintertime air pollution because of their uncertainties. Generally, such uncertainties can be decreased effectively by techniques such as data assimilation (DA) and model output statistics (MOS). However, the relative importance and combined effects of the two techniques have not been clarified. Here, a one-month air quality forecast with the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was carried out in a virtually operational setup focusing on Hebei Province, China. Meanwhile, three-dimensional variational (3DVar) DA and MOS based on one-dimensional Kalman filtering were implemented separately and simultaneously to investigate their performance in improving the model forecast. Comparison with observations shows that the chemistry forecast with MOS outperforms that with 3DVar DA, which could be seen in all the species tested over the whole 72 forecast hours. Combined use of both techniques does not guarantee a better forecast than MOS only, with the improvements and degradations being small and appearing rather randomly. Results indicate that the implementation of MOS is more suitable than 3DVar DA in improving the operational forecasting ability of WRF-Chem.

Ionospheric Storm Reconstructions with a Multimodel Ensemble Prdiction System (MEPS) of Data Assimilation Models: Mid and Low Latitude Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.

2016-12-01

As part of the NASA-NSF Space Weather Modeling Collaboration, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics system that is based on Data Assimilation (DA) models. MEPS is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models that cover the globe. Ensemble modeling can be conducted for the mid-low latitude ionosphere using the four GAIM data assimilation models, including the Gauss Markov (GM), Full Physics (FP), Band Limited (BL) and 4DVAR DA models. These models can assimilate Total Electron Content (TEC) from a constellation of satellites, bottom-side electron density profiles from digisondes, in situ plasma densities, occultation data and ultraviolet emissions. The four GAIM models were run for the March 16-17, 2013, geomagnetic storm period with the same data, but we also systematically added new data types and re-ran the GAIM models to see how the different data types affected the GAIM results, with the emphasis on elucidating differences in the underlying ionospheric dynamics and thermospheric coupling. Also, for each scenario the outputs from the four GAIM models were used to produce an ensemble mean for TEC, NmF2, and hmF2. A simple average of the models was used in the ensemble averaging to see if there was an improvement of the ensemble average over the individual models. For the scenarios considered, the ensemble average yielded better specifications than the individual GAIM models. The model differences and averages, and the consequent differences in ionosphere-thermosphere coupling and dynamics will be discussed.

Ensemble data assimilation of total column ozone using a coupled meteorology-chemistry model and its impact on the structure of Typhoon Nabi (2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, S.; Park, S. K.; Zupanski, M.

2015-09-01

Ozone (O3) plays an important role in chemical reactions and is usually incorporated in chemical data assimilation (DA). In tropical cyclones (TCs), O3 usually shows a lower concentration inside the eyewall and an elevated concentration around the eye, impacting meteorological as well as chemical variables. To identify the impact of O3 observations on TC structure, including meteorological and chemical information, we developed a coupled meteorology-chemistry DA system by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and an ensemble-based DA algorithm - the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF). For a TC case that occurred over East Asia, Typhoon Nabi (2005), our results indicate that the ensemble forecast is reasonable, accompanied with larger background state uncertainty over the TC, and also over eastern China. Similarly, the assimilation of O3 observations impacts meteorological and chemical variables near the TC and over eastern China. The strongest impact on air quality in the lower troposphere was over China, likely due to the pollution advection. In the vicinity of the TC, however, the strongest impact on chemical variables adjustment was at higher levels. The impact on meteorological variables was similar in both over China and near the TC. The analysis results are verified using several measures that include the cost function, root mean square (RMS) error with respect to observations, and degrees of freedom for signal (DFS). All measures indicate a positive impact of DA on the analysis - the cost function and RMS error have decreased by 16.9 and 8.87 %, respectively. In particular, the DFS indicates a strong positive impact of observations in the TC area, with a weaker maximum over northeastern China.

Scientific Studies of the High-Latitude Ionosphere with the Ionosphere Dynamics and ElectroDynamics - Data Assimilation (IDED-DA) Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-23

conduct simulations with a high-latitude data assimilation model. The specific objectives are to study magnetosphere-ionosphere ( M -I) coupling processes...based on three physics-based models, including a magnetosphere-ionosphere ( M -I) electrodynamics model, an ionosphere model, and a magnetic...inversion code. The ionosphere model is a high-resolution version of the Ionosphere Forecast Model ( IFM ), which is a 3-D, multi-ion model of the ionosphere

Data Assimilation to Extract Soil Moisture Information From SMAP Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolassa, J.; Reichle, R. H.; Liu, Q.; Alemohammad, S. H.; Gentine, P.

2017-01-01

Statistical techniques permit the retrieval of soil moisture estimates in a model climatology while retaining the spatial and temporal signatures of the satellite observations. As a consequence, they can be used to reduce the need for localized bias correction techniques typically implemented in data assimilation (DA) systems that tend to remove some of the independent information provided by satellite observations. Here, we use a statistical neural network (NN) algorithm to retrieve SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) surface soil moisture estimates in the climatology of the NASA Catchment land surface model. Assimilating these estimates without additional bias correction is found to significantly reduce the model error and increase the temporal correlation against SMAP CalVal in situ observations over the contiguous United States. A comparison with assimilation experiments using traditional bias correction techniques shows that the NN approach better retains the independent information provided by the SMAP observations and thus leads to larger model skill improvements during the assimilation. A comparison with the SMAP Level 4 product shows that the NN approach is able to provide comparable skill improvements and thus represents a viable assimilation approach.

Improved Monitoring of Vegetation Productivity using Continuous Assimilation of Radiometric Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baret, F.; Lauvernet, C.; Weiss, M.; Prevot, L.; Rochdi, N.

Canopy functioning models describe crop production from meteorological and soil inputs. However, because of the large number of variables and parameters used, and the poor knowledge of the actual values of some of them, the time course of the canopy and thus final production simulated by these models is often not very accurate. Satellite observations sensors allow controlling the simulations through assimilation of the radiometric data within radiative transfer models coupled to canopy functioning models. An assimilation scheme is presented with application to wheat crops. The coupling between radiative transfer models and canopy functioning models is described. The assimilation scheme is then applied to an experiment achieved within the ReSeDA project. Several issues relative to the assimilation process are discussed. They concern the type of canopy functioning model used, the possibility to assimilate biophysical products rather than radiances, and the use of ancillary information. Further, considerations associated to the problems linked to high spatial and temporal resolution data are listed and illustrated by preliminary results acquired within the ADAM project. Further discussion is made on the required temporal sampling for space observations.

Data Assimilation using observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture for improving sub-seasonal-to-seasonal forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Mazrooei, A.; Lakshmi, V.; Wood, A.

2017-12-01

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts of soil moisture and streamflow provides critical information for water and agricultural systems to support short-term planning and mangement. This study evaluates the role of observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture from SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission in improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasting using data assimilation (DA). We first show the ability to forecast soil moisture at monthly-to-seaasonal time scale by forcing climate forecasts with NASA's Land Information System and then compares the developed soil moisture forecast with the SMAP data over the Southeast US. Our analyses show significant skill in forecasting real-time soil moisture over 1-3 months using climate information. We also show that the developed soil moisture forecasts capture the observed severe drought conditions (2007-2008) over the Southeast US. Following that, we consider both SMAP data and observed streamflow for improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasts for a pilot study area, Tar River basin, in NC. Towards this, we consider variational assimilation (VAR) of gauge-measured daily streamflow data in improving initial hydrologic conditions of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The utility of data assimilation is then assessed in improving S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture through a retrospective analyses. Furthermore, the optimal frequency of data assimilation and optimal analysis window (number of past observations to use) are also assessed in order to achieve the maximum improvement in S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture. Potential utility of updating initial conditions using DA and providing skillful forcings are also discussed.

Multiple complexes of nitrogen assimilatory enzymes in spinach chloroplasts: possible mechanisms for the regulation of enzyme function.

PubMed

Kimata-Ariga, Yoko; Hase, Toshiharu

2014-01-01

Assimilation of nitrogen is an essential biological process for plant growth and productivity. Here we show that three chloroplast enzymes involved in nitrogen assimilation, glutamate synthase (GOGAT), nitrite reductase (NiR) and glutamine synthetase (GS), separately assemble into distinct protein complexes in spinach chloroplasts, as analyzed by western blots under blue native electrophoresis (BN-PAGE). GOGAT and NiR were present not only as monomers, but also as novel complexes with a discrete size (730 kDa) and multiple sizes (>120 kDa), respectively, in the stromal fraction of chloroplasts. These complexes showed the same mobility as each monomer on two-dimensional (2D) SDS-PAGE after BN-PAGE. The 730 kDa complex containing GOGAT dissociated into monomers, and multiple complexes of NiR reversibly converted into monomers, in response to the changes in the pH of the stromal solvent. On the other hand, the bands detected by anti-GS antibody were present not only in stroma as a conventional decameric holoenzyme complex of 420 kDa, but also in thylakoids as a novel complex of 560 kDa. The polypeptide in the 560 kDa complex showed slower mobility than that of the 420 kDa complex on the 2D SDS-PAGE, implying the assembly of distinct GS isoforms or a post-translational modification of the same GS protein. The function of these multiple complexes was evaluated by in-gel GS activity under native conditions and by the binding ability of NiR and GOGAT with their physiological electron donor, ferredoxin. The results indicate that these multiplicities in size and localization of the three nitrogen assimilatory enzymes may be involved in the physiological regulation of their enzyme function, in a similar way as recently described cases of carbon assimilatory enzymes.

Improving aerosol vertical retrieval for NWP application: Studying the impact of IR-sensed aerosol on data assimilation systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyola, Mayra; Marquis, Jared; Ruston, Benjamin; Campbell, James; Baker, Nancy; Westphal, Douglas; Zhang, Jianglong; Hyer, Edward

2017-04-01

Radiometric measurements from passive infrared (IR) sensors are important in numerical weather prediction (NWP) because they are sensitive to surface temperatures and atmospheric temperature profiles. However, these measurements are also sensitive to absorbing and scattering constituents in the atmosphere. Dust aerosols absorb in the IR and are found over many global regions with irregular spatial and temporal frequency. Retrievals of temperature using IR data are thus vulnerable to dust-IR radiance biases, most notably over tropical oceans where accurate surface and atmospheric temperatures are critical to accurate prediction of tropical cyclone development. Previous studies have shown that dust aerosols can bias retrieved brightness temperatures (BT) by up to 10K in some IR channels that are assimilated to constrain atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles. Other BT-derived parameters such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are susceptible to negative biases of at least 1K or higher, which conflicts with the accuracy requirement for most research and operational applications (i.e., +/- 0.3 K). This problem is not limited to just satellite retrievals. BT bias also impacts the incorporation of background fields from NWP analyses in data assimilation (DA) systems. The effect of aerosols on IR fluxes at the ocean surface is a function of both aerosol loading and vertical profile. Therefore, knowledge of the aerosol vertical distribution, and understanding of how well this distribution is captured by NWP models, is necessary to ensuring proper treatment of aerosol-affected radiances in both retrieval and data assimilation. This understanding can be achieved by conducting modeling studies and by the exploitation of a robust observational dataset, such as satellite-based lidar profiling, which can be used to characterize aerosol type and distribution. In this talk, we describe such an application using the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (NAAPS) and Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS). We describe the impact of aerosol-biased radiances on operational DA, and thus the quantitative impact of dust on model profiles of temperature and water vapor mixing ratio before and after data assimilation, using collocated hyperspectral Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIs) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) observations over the Tropical Atlantic. We then describe how the NAVDAS radiance assimilation system responds when coupled with NAAPS dust concentration fields, and thus how the model representation of dust compares with observations.. The result is a conceptual description of how IR-absorbing dust impacts radiance DA for operational weather modeling, and a first-order description of how adept current aerosol transport models are for providing compulsory corrections.

A pseudoproxy assessment of data assimilation for reconstructing the atmosphere-ocean dynamics of hydroclimate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiger, Nathan J.; Smerdon, Jason E.

2017-10-01

Because of the relatively brief observational record, the climate dynamics that drive multiyear to centennial hydroclimate variability are not adequately characterized and understood. Paleoclimate reconstructions based on data assimilation (DA) optimally fuse paleoclimate proxies with the dynamical constraints of climate models, thus providing a coherent dynamical picture of the past. DA is therefore an important new tool for elucidating the mechanisms of hydroclimate variability over the last several millennia. But DA has so far remained untested for global hydroclimate reconstructions. Here we explore whether or not DA can be used to skillfully reconstruct global hydroclimate variability along with the driving climate dynamics. Through a set of idealized pseudoproxy experiments, we find that an established DA reconstruction approach can in principle be used to reconstruct hydroclimate at both annual and seasonal timescales. We find that the skill of such reconstructions is generally highest near the proxy sites. This set of reconstruction experiments is specifically designed to estimate a realistic upper bound for the skill of this DA approach. Importantly, this experimental framework allows us to see where and for what variables the reconstruction approach may never achieve high skill. In particular for tree rings, we find that hydroclimate reconstructions depend critically on moisture-sensitive trees, while temperature reconstructions depend critically on temperature-sensitive trees. Real-world DA-based reconstructions will therefore likely require a spatial mixture of temperature- and moisture-sensitive trees to reconstruct both temperature and hydroclimate variables. Additionally, we illustrate how DA can be used to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of drought with two examples: tropical drivers of multiyear droughts in the North American Southwest and in equatorial East Africa. This work thus provides a foundation for future DA-based hydroclimate reconstructions using real-proxy networks while also highlighting the utility of this important tool for hydroclimate research.

Estimation of bathymetric depth and slope from data assimilation of swath altimetry into a hydrodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durand, Michael; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Alsdorf, Douglas E.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Moller, Delwyn; Wilson, Matthew

2008-10-01

The proposed Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission would provide measurements of water surface elevation (WSE) for characterization of storage change and discharge. River channel bathymetry is a significant source of uncertainty in estimating discharge from WSE measurements, however. In this paper, we demonstrate an ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) methodology for estimating bathymetric depth and slope from WSE measurements and the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model. We performed two proof-of-concept experiments using synthetically generated SWOT measurements. The experiments demonstrated that bathymetric depth and slope can be estimated to within 3.0 microradians or 50 cm, respectively, using SWOT WSE measurements, within the context of our DA and modeling framework. We found that channel bathymetry estimation accuracy is relatively insensitive to SWOT measurement error, because uncertainty in LISFLOOD-FP inputs (such as channel roughness and upstream boundary conditions) is likely to be of greater magnitude than measurement error.

Choice of Control Variables in Variational Data Assimilation and Its Analysis and Forecast Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yuanfu; Sun, Jenny; Fang, Wei-ting

2014-05-01

Choice of control variables directly impacts the analysis qualify of a variational data assimilation and its forecasts. A theory on selecting control variables for wind and moisture field is introduced for 3DVAR or 4DVAR. For a good control variable selection, Parseval's theory is applied to 3-4DVAR and the behavior of different control variables is illustrated in physical and Fourier space in terms of minimization condition, meteorological dynamic scales and practical implementation. The computational and meteorological benefits will be discussed. Numerical experiments have been performed using WRF-DA for wind control variables and CRTM for moisture control variables. It is evident of the WRF forecast improvement and faster convergence of CRTM satellite data assimilation.

A data assimilation experiment of RASTA airborne cloud radar data during HyMeX IOP16

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saussereau, Gaël; Caumont, Olivier; Delanoë, Julien

2015-04-01

The main goal of HyMeX first special observing period (SOP1), which took place from 5 September to 5 November 2012, was to document the heavy precipitation events and flash floods that regularly affect the north-western Mediterranean coastal areas. In the two-month campaign, around twenty rainfall events were documented in France, Italy, and Spain. Among the instrumental platforms that were deployed during SOP1, the Falcon 20 of the Safire unit (http://www.safire.fr/) made numerous flights in storm systems so as to document their thermodynamic, microphysical, and dynamical properties. In particular, the RASTA cloud radar (http://rali.projet.latmos.ipsl.fr/) was aboard this aircraft. This radar measures vertical profiles of reflectivity and Doppler velocity above and below the aircraft. This unique instrument thus allows us to document the microphysical properties and the speed of wind and hydrometeors in the clouds, quasi-continuously in time and at a 60-m vertical resolution. For this field campaign, a special version of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) Arome system was developed to cover the whole north-western Mediterranean basin. This version, called Arome-WMed, ran in real time during the SOP in order to, notably, schedule the airborne operations, especially in storm systems. Like the operational version, Arome-WMed delivers forecasts at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km with a one-moment microphysical scheme that predicts the evolution of six water species: water vapour, cloud liquid water, rainwater, pristine ice, snow, and graupel. Its three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation (DA) system ingests every three hours (at 00 UTC, 03 UTC, etc.) numerous observations (radiosoundings, ground automatic weather stations, radar, satellite, GPS, etc.). In order to provide improved initial conditions to Arome-WMed, especially for heavy precipitation events, RASTA data were assimilated in Arome-WMed 3DVar DA system for IOP16 (26 October 2012), to begin with. There were two flights on 26 October and thus RASTA data were assimilated at 2+2 consecutive analysis times (06, 09, 12, and 15 UTC). This task involved a preliminary step to convert the original data into vertical profiles that are suitable for assimilation: the data were averaged to remove noise and match the model's resolution, they were converted to appropriate physical quantities and in a format that is readable by the DA system, etc.). The presentation will show the impact of RASTA data on Arome-WMed analyses and forecasts, both with respect to RASTA data and to independent data (either also assimilated or not).

Data Assimilation in the Presence of Forecast Bias: The GEOS Moisture Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, Dick P.; Todling, Ricardo

1999-01-01

We describe the application of the unbiased sequential analysis algorithm developed by Dee and da Silva (1998) to the GEOS DAS moisture analysis. The algorithm estimates the persistent component of model error using rawinsonde observations and adjusts the first-guess moisture field accordingly. Results of two seasonal data assimilation cycles show that moisture analysis bias is almost completely eliminated in all observed regions. The improved analyses cause a sizable reduction in the 6h-forecast bias and a marginal improvement in the error standard deviations.

Indices and Dynamics of Global Hydroclimate Over the Past Millennium from Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiger, N. J.; Smerdon, J. E.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions based on data assimilation (DA) are at the forefront of model-data syntheses in that such reconstructions optimally fuse proxy data with climate models. DA-based paleoclimate reconstructions have the benefit of being physically-consistent across the reconstructed climate variables and are capable of providing dynamical information about past climate phenomena. Here we use a new implementation of DA, that includes updated proxy system models and climate model bias correction procedures, to reconstruct global hydroclimate on seasonal and annual timescales over the last millennium. This new global hydroclimate product includes reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and global surface temperature along with dynamical variables including the Nino 3.4 index, the latitudinal location of the intertropical convergence zone, and an index of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Here we present a validation of the reconstruction product and also elucidate the causes of severe drought in North America and in equatorial Africa. Specifically, we explore the connection between droughts in North America and modes of ocean variability in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We also link drought over equatorial Africa to shifts of the intertropical convergence zone and modes of ocean variability.

A Quality Control study of the distribution of NOAA MIRS Cloudy retrievals during Hurricane Sandy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S. J.

2013-12-01

Cloudy radiance present a difficult challenge to data assimilation (DA) systems, through both the radiative transfer system as well the hydrometers required to resolve the cloud and precipitation. In most DA systems the hydrometers are not control variables due to many limitations. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) is producing products from the NPP-ATMS satellite where the scene is cloud and precipitation affected. The test case that we present here is the life time of Hurricane and then Superstorm Sandy in October 2012. As a quality control study we shall compare the retrieved water vapor content during the lifetime of Sandy with the first guess and the analysis from the NOAA Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system. The assessment involves the gross error check system against the first guess with different values for the observational error's variance to see if the difference is within three standard deviations. We shall also compare against the final analysis at the relevant cycles to see if the products which have been retrieved through a cloudy radiance are similar, given that the DA system does not assimilate cloudy radiances yet.

Impact of Representing Model Error in a Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Track Forecast of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutty, Govindan; Muraleedharan, Rohit; Kesarkar, Amit P.

2018-03-01

Uncertainties in the numerical weather prediction models are generally not well-represented in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) systems. The performance of an ensemble-based DA system becomes suboptimal, if the sources of error are undersampled in the forecast system. The present study examines the effect of accounting for model error treatments in the hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter—three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA system (hybrid) in the track forecast of two tropical cyclones viz. Hudhud and Thane, formed over the Bay of Bengal, using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model. We investigated the effect of two types of model error treatment schemes and their combination on the hybrid DA system; (i) multiphysics approach, which uses different combination of cumulus, microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes, (ii) stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, which perturbs the horizontal wind and potential temperature tendencies, (iii) a combination of both multiphysics and SKEB scheme. Substantial improvements are noticed in the track positions of both the cyclones, when flow-dependent ensemble covariance is used in 3DVAR framework. Explicit model error representation is found to be beneficial in treating the underdispersive ensembles. Among the model error schemes used in this study, a combination of multiphysics and SKEB schemes has outperformed the other two schemes with improved track forecast for both the tropical cyclones.

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Mathew; Schwarz, Paul A.; Law, Beverly E.; Kurpius, Meredith R.

2005-01-01

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Towards a satellite driven land surface model using SURFEX modelling platform Offline Data Assimilation: an assessment of the method over Europe and the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albergel, Clément; Munier, Simon; Leroux, Delphine; Fairbairn, David; Dorigo, Wouter; Decharme, Bertrand; Calvet, Jean-Christophe

2017-04-01

Modelling platforms including Land Surface Models (LSMs), forced by gridded atmospheric variables and coupled to river routing models are necessary to increase our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle. These LSMs need to simulate biogeophysical variables like Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (SSM, RZSM), Leaf Area Index (LAI) in a way that is fully consistent with the representation of surface/energy fluxes and river discharge simulations. Global SSM and LAI products are now operationally available from spaceborne instruments and they can be used to constrain LSMs through Data Assimilation (DA) techniques. In this study, an offline data assimilation system implemented in Météo-France's modelling platform (SURFEX) is tested over Europe and the Mediterranean basin to increase prediction accuracy for land surface variables. The resulting Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) makes use of a simplified Extended Kalman Filter (SEKF). It is able to ingests information from satellite derived (i) SSM from the latest version of the ESA Climate Change Initiative as well as (ii) LAI from the Copernicus GLS project to constrain the multilayer, CO2-responsive version of the Interactions Between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere model (ISBA) coupled with Météo-France's version of the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways continental hydrological system (ISBA-CTRIP). ERA-Interim observations based atmospheric forcing with precipitations corrected from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre observations (GPCC) is used to force ISBA-CTRIP at a resolution of 0.5 degree over 2000-2015. The model sensitivity to the assimilated observations is presented and a set of statistical diagnostics used to evaluate the impact of assimilating SSM and LAI on different model biogeophysical variables are provided. It is demonstrated that the assimilation scheme works effectively. The SEKF is able to extract useful information from the data signal at the grid scale and distribute the RZSM and LAI increments throughout the model impacting soil moisture, terrestrial vegetation and water cycle, surface carbon and energy fluxes.

Snow multivariable data assimilation for hydrological predictions in mountain areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazzi, Gaia; Campo, Lorenzo; Gabellani, Simone; Rudari, Roberto; Castelli, Fabio; Cremonese, Edoardo; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Stevenin, Hervé; Ratto, Sara Maria

2016-04-01

The seasonal presence of snow on alpine catchments strongly impacts both surface energy balance and water resource. Thus, the knowledge of the snowpack dynamics is of critical importance for several applications, such as water resource management, floods prediction and hydroelectric power production. Several independent data sources provide information about snowpack state: ground-based measurements, satellite data and physical models. Although all these data types are reliable, each of them is affected by specific flaws and errors (respectively dependency on local conditions, sensor biases and limitations, initialization and poor quality forcing data). Moreover, there are physical factors that make an exhaustive reconstruction of snow dynamics complicated: snow intermittence in space and time, stratification and slow phenomena like metamorphism processes, uncertainty in snowfall evaluation, wind transportation, etc. Data Assimilation (DA) techniques provide an objective methodology to combine observational and modeled information to obtain the most likely estimate of snowpack state. Indeed, by combining all the available sources of information, the implementation of DA schemes can quantify and reduce the uncertainties of the estimations. This study presents SMASH (Snow Multidata Assimilation System for Hydrology), a multi-layer snow dynamic model, strengthened by a robust multivariable data assimilation algorithm. The model is physically based on mass and energy balances and can be used to reproduce the main physical processes occurring within the snowpack: accumulation, density dynamics, melting, sublimation, radiative balance, heat and mass exchanges. The model is driven by observed forcing meteorological data (air temperature, wind velocity, relative air humidity, precipitation and incident solar radiation) to provide a complete estimate of snowpack state. The implementation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) scheme enables to assimilate simultaneously ground-based and remotely sensed data of different snow-related variables (snow albedo and surface temperature, Snow Water Equivalent from passive microwave sensors and Snow Cover Area). SMASH performance was evaluated in the period June 2012 - December 2013 at the meteorological station of Torgnon (Tellinod, 2 160 msl), located in Aosta Valley, a mountain region in northwestern Italy. The EnKF algorithm was firstly tested by assimilating several ground-based measurements: snow depth, land surface temperature, snow density and albedo. The assimilation of snow observed data revealed an overall considerable enhancement of model predictions with respect to the open loop experiments. A first attempt to integrate also remote sensed information was performed by assimilating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) from METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG), leading to good results. The analysis allowed identifying the snow depth and the snowpack surface temperature as the most impacting variables in the assimilation process. In order to pinpoint an optimal number of ensemble instances, SMASH performances were also quantitatively evaluated by varying the instances amount. Furthermore, the impact of the data assimilation frequency was analyzed by varying the assimilation time step (3h, 6h, 12h, 24h).

Preparing for the Future Nankai Trough Tsunami: A Data Assimilation and Inversion Analysis From Various Observational Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulia, Iyan E.; Inazu, Daisuke; Waseda, Takuji; Gusman, Aditya Riadi

2017-10-01

The future Nankai Trough tsunami is one of the imminent threats to the Japanese coastal communities that could potentially cause a catastrophic event. As a part of the countermeasure efforts for such an occurrence, this study analyzes the efficacy of combining tsunami data assimilation (DA) and waveform inversion (WI). The DA is used to continuously refine a wavefield model whereas the WI is used to estimate the tsunami source. We consider a future scenario of the Nankai Trough tsunami recorded at various observational systems, including ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges, global positioning system (GPS) buoys, and ship height positioning data. Since most of the OBP gauges are located inside the source region, the recorded tsunami signals exhibit significant offsets from surface measurements due to coseismic seafloor deformation effects. Such biased data are not applicable to the standard DA, but can be taken into account in the WI. On the other hand, the use of WI for the ship data may not be practical because a considerably large precomputed tsunami database is needed to cope with the spontaneous ship locations. The DA is more suitable for such an observational system as it can be executed sequentially in time and does not require precomputed scenarios. Therefore, the combined approach of DA and WI allows us to concurrently make use of all observational resources. Additionally, we introduce a bias correction scheme for the OBP data to improve the accuracy, and an adaptive thinning of observations to determine the efficient number of observations.

Snow multivariable data assimilation for hydrological predictions in Alpine sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazzi, Gaia; Thirel, Guillaume; Campo, Lorenzo; Gabellani, Simone; Stevenin, Hervè

2017-04-01

Snowpack dynamics (snow accumulation and ablation) strongly impacts on hydrological processes in Alpine areas. During the winter season the presence of snow cover (snow accumulation) reduces the drainage in the basin with a resulting lower watershed time of concentration in case of possible rainfall events. Moreover, the release of the significant water volume stored in winter (snowmelt) considerably contributes to the total discharge during the melting period. Therefore when modeling hydrological processes in snow-dominated catchments the quality of predictions deeply depends on how the model succeeds in catching snowpack dynamics. The integration of a hydrological model with a snow module allows improving predictions of river discharges. Besides the well-known modeling limitations (uncertainty in parameterizations; possible errors affecting both meteorological forcing data and initial conditions; approximations in boundary conditions), there are physical factors that make an exhaustive reconstruction of snow dynamics complicated: snow intermittence in space and time, stratification and slow phenomena like metamorphism processes, uncertainty in snowfall evaluation, wind transportation, etc. Data Assimilation (DA) techniques provide an objective methodology to combine several independent snow-related data sources (model simulations, ground-based measurements and remote sensed observations) in order to obtain the most likely estimate of snowpack state. This study presents SMASH (Snow Multidata Assimilation System for Hydrology), a multi-layer snow dynamic model strengthened by a multivariable DA framework for hydrological purposes. The model is physically based on mass and energy balances and can be used to reproduce the main physical processes occurring within the snowpack: accumulation, density dynamics, melting, sublimation, radiative balance, heat and mass exchanges. The model is driven by observed forcing meteorological data (air temperature, wind velocity, relative air humidity, precipitation and incident solar radiation) to provide a complete estimate of snowpack state. The implementation of a DA scheme enables to assimilate simultaneously ground-based observations of different snow-related variables (snow depth, snow density, surface temperature and albedo). SMASH performances are evaluated by using observed data supplied by meteorological stations located in three experimental Alpine sites: Col de Porte (1325 m, France); Torgnon (2160 m, Italy); Weissfluhjoch (2540 m, Switzerland). A comparison analysis between the resulting performaces of Particle Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter schemes is shown.

Scalable Methods for Uncertainty Quantification, Data Assimilation and Target Accuracy Assessment for Multi-Physics Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khuwaileh, Bassam

High fidelity simulation of nuclear reactors entails large scale applications characterized with high dimensionality and tremendous complexity where various physics models are integrated in the form of coupled models (e.g. neutronic with thermal-hydraulic feedback). Each of the coupled modules represents a high fidelity formulation of the first principles governing the physics of interest. Therefore, new developments in high fidelity multi-physics simulation and the corresponding sensitivity/uncertainty quantification analysis are paramount to the development and competitiveness of reactors achieved through enhanced understanding of the design and safety margins. Accordingly, this dissertation introduces efficient and scalable algorithms for performing efficient Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), Data Assimilation (DA) and Target Accuracy Assessment (TAA) for large scale, multi-physics reactor design and safety problems. This dissertation builds upon previous efforts for adaptive core simulation and reduced order modeling algorithms and extends these efforts towards coupled multi-physics models with feedback. The core idea is to recast the reactor physics analysis in terms of reduced order models. This can be achieved via identifying the important/influential degrees of freedom (DoF) via the subspace analysis, such that the required analysis can be recast by considering the important DoF only. In this dissertation, efficient algorithms for lower dimensional subspace construction have been developed for single physics and multi-physics applications with feedback. Then the reduced subspace is used to solve realistic, large scale forward (UQ) and inverse problems (DA and TAA). Once the elite set of DoF is determined, the uncertainty/sensitivity/target accuracy assessment and data assimilation analysis can be performed accurately and efficiently for large scale, high dimensional multi-physics nuclear engineering applications. Hence, in this work a Karhunen-Loeve (KL) based algorithm previously developed to quantify the uncertainty for single physics models is extended for large scale multi-physics coupled problems with feedback effect. Moreover, a non-linear surrogate based UQ approach is developed, used and compared to performance of the KL approach and brute force Monte Carlo (MC) approach. On the other hand, an efficient Data Assimilation (DA) algorithm is developed to assess information about model's parameters: nuclear data cross-sections and thermal-hydraulics parameters. Two improvements are introduced in order to perform DA on the high dimensional problems. First, a goal-oriented surrogate model can be used to replace the original models in the depletion sequence (MPACT -- COBRA-TF - ORIGEN). Second, approximating the complex and high dimensional solution space with a lower dimensional subspace makes the sampling process necessary for DA possible for high dimensional problems. Moreover, safety analysis and design optimization depend on the accurate prediction of various reactor attributes. Predictions can be enhanced by reducing the uncertainty associated with the attributes of interest. Accordingly, an inverse problem can be defined and solved to assess the contributions from sources of uncertainty; and experimental effort can be subsequently directed to further improve the uncertainty associated with these sources. In this dissertation a subspace-based gradient-free and nonlinear algorithm for inverse uncertainty quantification namely the Target Accuracy Assessment (TAA) has been developed and tested. The ideas proposed in this dissertation were first validated using lattice physics applications simulated using SCALE6.1 package (Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) and Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) lattice models). Ultimately, the algorithms proposed her were applied to perform UQ and DA for assembly level (CASL progression problem number 6) and core wide problems representing Watts Bar Nuclear 1 (WBN1) for cycle 1 of depletion (CASL Progression Problem Number 9) modeled via simulated using VERA-CS which consists of several multi-physics coupled models. The analysis and algorithms developed in this dissertation were encoded and implemented in a newly developed tool kit algorithms for Reduced Order Modeling based Uncertainty/Sensitivity Estimator (ROMUSE).

OHD/HL - XEFS

Science.gov Websites

Assimilator Ensemble Post-processor (EnsPost) Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) Ensemble Verification capabilities (see diagram below): the Ensemble Pre-processor, the Ensemble Post-processor, the Hydrologic Model (OpenDA, http://www.openda.org/joomla/index.php) to be used within the CHPS environment. Ensemble Post

On the importance of the heterogeneity assumption in the characterization of reservoir geomechanical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoccarato, C.; Baù, D.; Bottazzi, F.; Ferronato, M.; Gambolati, G.; Mantica, S.; Teatini, P.

2016-10-01

The geomechanical analysis of a highly compartmentalized reservoir is performed to simulate the seafloor subsidence due to gas production. The available observations over the hydrocarbon reservoir consist of bathymetric surveys carried out before and at the end of a 10-yr production life. The main goal is the calibration of the reservoir compressibility cM, that is, the main geomechanical parameter controlling the surface response. Two conceptual models are considered: in one (i) cM varies only with the depth and the vertical effective stress (heterogeneity due to lithostratigraphic variability); in another (ii) cM varies also in the horizontal plane, that is, it is spatially distributed within the reservoir stratigraphic units. The latter hypothesis accounts for a possible partitioning of the reservoir due to the presence of sealing faults and thrusts that suggests the idea of a block heterogeneous system with the number of reservoir blocks equal to the number of uncertain parameters. The method applied here relies on an ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) algorithm (i.e. the ensemble smoother, ES), which incorporates the information from the bathymetric measurements into the geomechanical model response to infer and reduce the uncertainty of the parameter cM. The outcome from conceptual model (i) indicates that DA is effective in reducing the cM uncertainty. However, the maximum settlement still remains underestimated, while the areal extent of the subsidence bowl is overestimated. We demonstrate that the selection of the heterogeneous conceptual model (ii) allows to reproduce much better the observations thus removing a clear bias of the model structure. DA allows significantly reducing the cM uncertainty in the five blocks (out of the seven) characterized by large volume and large pressure decline. Conversely, the assimilation of land displacements only partially constrains the prior cM uncertainty in the reservoir blocks marginally contributing to the cumulative seafloor subsidence, that is, blocks with low pressure.

The ABC model: a non-hydrostatic toy model for use in convective-scale data assimilation investigations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrie, Ruth Elizabeth; Bannister, Ross Noel; Priestley Cullen, Michael John

2017-12-01

In developing methods for convective-scale data assimilation (DA), it is necessary to consider the full range of motions governed by the compressible Navier-Stokes equations (including non-hydrostatic and ageostrophic flow). These equations describe motion on a wide range of timescales with non-linear coupling. For the purpose of developing new DA techniques that suit the convective-scale problem, it is helpful to use so-called toy models that are easy to run and contain the same types of motion as the full equation set. Such a model needs to permit hydrostatic and geostrophic balance at large scales but allow imbalance at small scales, and in particular, it needs to exhibit intermittent convection-like behaviour. Existing toy models are not always sufficient for investigating these issues. A simplified system of intermediate complexity derived from the Euler equations is presented, which supports dispersive gravity and acoustic modes. In this system, the separation of timescales can be greatly reduced by changing the physical parameters. Unlike in existing toy models, this allows the acoustic modes to be treated explicitly and hence inexpensively. In addition, the non-linear coupling induced by the equation of state is simplified. This means that the gravity and acoustic modes are less coupled than in conventional models. A vertical slice formulation is used which contains only dry dynamics. The model is shown to give physically reasonable results, and convective behaviour is generated by localised compressible effects. This model provides an affordable and flexible framework within which some of the complex issues of convective-scale DA can later be investigated. The model is called the ABC model after the three tunable parameters introduced: A (the pure gravity wave frequency), B (the modulation of the divergent term in the continuity equation), and C (defining the compressibility).

Exploring coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Polly; Fowler, Alison; Lawless, Amos; Haines, Keith

2014-05-01

The successful application of data assimilation techniques to operational numerical weather prediction and ocean forecasting systems has led to an increased interest in their use for the initialisation of coupled atmosphere-ocean models in prediction on seasonal to decadal timescales. Coupled data assimilation presents a significant challenge but offers a long list of potential benefits including improved use of near-surface observations, reduction of initialisation shocks in coupled forecasts, and generation of a consistent system state for the initialisation of coupled forecasts across all timescales. In this work we explore some of the fundamental questions in the design of coupled data assimilation systems within the context of an idealised one-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The system is based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) atmosphere model and a K-Profile Parameterisation (KKP) mixed layer ocean model developed by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) climate group at the University of Reading. It employs a strong constraint incremental 4D-Var scheme and is designed to enable the effective exploration of various approaches to performing coupled model data assimilation whilst avoiding many of the issues associated with more complex models. Working with this simple framework enables a greater range and quantity of experiments to be performed. Here, we will describe the development of our simplified single-column coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var assimilation system and present preliminary results from a series of identical twin experiments devised to investigate and compare the behaviour and sensitivities of different coupled data assimilation methodologies. This includes comparing fully and weakly coupled assimilations with uncoupled assimilation, investigating whether coupled assimilation can eliminate or lessen initialisation shock in coupled model forecasts, and exploring the effect of the assimilation window length in coupled assimilations. These experiments will facilitate a greater theoretical understanding of the coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation problem and thus help guide the design and implementation of different coupling strategies within operational systems. This research is funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The ESA funded component is part of the Data Assimilation Projects - Coupled Model Data Assimilation initiative whose goal is to advance data assimilation techniques in fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models (see http://www.esa-da.org/). It is being conducted in parallel to the development of prototype weakly coupled data assimilation systems at both the UK Met Office and ECMWF.

Impact of GPS-Integrated Water Vapour assimilation on Regional Climate Model simulations of heavy precipitation events in the western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldas-Alvarez, Alberto; Khodayar, Samiro

2017-04-01

An accurate representation of the devastating heavy precipitation events, that typically strike the western Mediterranean regions by autumn, is still a challenge for current weather prediction models. The misrepresentation of the atmospheric moisture distribution and the convective processes where it plays a role have been pointed out as sources of error in their prediction. Provided the fast variability of water vapour in the atmosphere, an improved representation of its distribution is expected from the Data Assimilation (DA) of very frequent measurements, such is the case of Global Positioning System derived Integrated Water Vapour (GPS-IWV). Moreover, an improved representation of the model physics is expected from the application of the DA on fine-scale model grids. The presented research work aims at assessing the impact of the selective assimilation of GPS-IWV retrievals on the representation of the atmospheric moisture distribution in relation to heavy precipitation in seasonal simulations over the western Mediterranean. COSMO simulations in CLimate Mode (CCLM) are run with two different horizontal resolutions (2.8 km and 7 km) to reproduce the period September 2012 to March 2013, encompassing the Special Observation Period 1 (SOP1) of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX). A state-of-art GPS-IWV data set, specially homogenized for the western Mediterranean countries spanning the aforementioned seven month period is selectively assimilated into the model runs with a high frequency (10 minutes). The impact of such assimilation combined with the grid refinement of the model is assessed in the representation of the atmospheric moisture distribution and its influence in the processes leading to deep moist convection and heavy rain. Observational data sets of precipitation obtained with the Climate Prediction Centre MORPHing technique (CMORPH), from the HyMeX rain gauge network as well as the GPS-IWV retrievals are employed to validate our model results and support the process studies. Results show remarkable discrepancies in the representation of the temporal evolution of IWV by CCLM well corrected by the assimilation. This rectification of the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere influences the intensity and location of extreme precipitation, albeit the sign and extent of this influence was shown to be event-dependent.

A study on characteristics of retrospective optimal interpolation with WRF testbed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Noh, N.; Lim, G.

2012-12-01

This study presents the application of retrospective optimal interpolation (ROI) with Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Song et al. (2009) suggest ROI method which is an optimal interpolation (OI) that gradually assimilates observations over the analysis window for variance-minimum estimate of an atmospheric state at the initial time of the analysis window. Song and Lim (2011) improve the method by incorporating eigen-decomposition and covariance inflation. ROI method assimilates the data at post analysis time using perturbation method (Errico and Raeder, 1999) without adjoint model. In this study, ROI method is applied to WRF model to validate the algorithm and to investigate the capability. The computational costs for ROI can be reduced due to the eigen-decomposition of background error covariance. Using the background error covariance in eigen-space, 1-profile assimilation experiment is performed. The difference between forecast errors with assimilation and without assimilation is obviously increased as time passed, which means the improvement of forecast error by assimilation. The characteristics and strength/weakness of ROI method are investigated by conducting the experiments with other data assimilation method.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Xiaochun; Wei, Yihao; Shi, Lanxin

Glutamine synthetase (GS; EC 6.3.1.2) plays a crucial role in the assimilation and re-assimilation of ammonia derived from a wide variety of metabolic processes during plant growth and development. Here, three developmentally regulated isoforms of GS holoenzyme in the leaf of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) seedlings are described using native-PAGE with a transferase activity assay. The isoforms showed different mobilities in gels, with GSII>GSIII>GSI. The cytosolic GSI was composed of three subunits, GS1, GSr1, and GSr2, with the same molecular weight (39.2kDa), but different pI values. GSI appeared at leaf emergence and was active throughout the leaf lifespan. GSIImore » and GSIII, both located in the chloroplast, were each composed of a single 42.1kDa subunit with different pI values. GSII was active mainly in green leaves, while GSIII showed brief but higher activity in green leaves grown under field conditions. LC-MS/MS experiments revealed that GSII and GSIII have the same amino acid sequence, but GSII has more modification sites. With a modified blue native electrophoresis (BNE) technique and in-gel catalytic activity analysis, only two GS isoforms were observed: one cytosolic and one chloroplastic. Mass calibrations on BNE gels showed that the cytosolic GS1 holoenzyme was ~490kDa and likely a dodecamer, and the chloroplastic GS2 holoenzyme was ~240kDa and likely a hexamer. Lastly, our experimental data suggest that the activity of GS isoforms in wheat is regulated by subcellular localization, assembly, and modification to achieve their roles during plant development.« less

Satellite-Scale Snow Water Equivalent Assimilation into a High-Resolution Land Surface Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Lannoy, Gabrielle J.M.; Reichle, Rolf H.; Houser, Paul R.; Arsenault, Kristi R.; Verhoest, Niko E.C.; Paulwels, Valentijn R.N.

2009-01-01

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used in a suite of synthetic experiments to assimilate coarse-scale (25 km) snow water equivalent (SWE) observations (typical of satellite retrievals) into fine-scale (1 km) model simulations. Coarse-scale observations are assimilated directly using an observation operator for mapping between the coarse and fine scales or, alternatively, after disaggregation (re-gridding) to the fine-scale model resolution prior to data assimilation. In either case observations are assimilated either simultaneously or independently for each location. Results indicate that assimilating disaggregated fine-scale observations independently (method 1D-F1) is less efficient than assimilating a collection of neighboring disaggregated observations (method 3D-Fm). Direct assimilation of coarse-scale observations is superior to a priori disaggregation. Independent assimilation of individual coarse-scale observations (method 3D-C1) can bring the overall mean analyzed field close to the truth, but does not necessarily improve estimates of the fine-scale structure. There is a clear benefit to simultaneously assimilating multiple coarse-scale observations (method 3D-Cm) even as the entire domain is observed, indicating that underlying spatial error correlations can be exploited to improve SWE estimates. Method 3D-Cm avoids artificial transitions at the coarse observation pixel boundaries and can reduce the RMSE by 60% when compared to the open loop in this study.

Application of data assimilation methods for analysis and integration of observed and modeled Arctic Sea ice motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, Walter Neil

This thesis demonstrates the applicability of data assimilation methods to improve observed and modeled ice motion fields and to demonstrate the effects of assimilated motion on Arctic processes important to the global climate and of practical concern to human activities. Ice motions derived from 85 GHz and 37 GHz SSM/I imagery and estimated from two-dimensional dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models are compared to buoy observations. Mean error, error standard deviation, and correlation with buoys are computed for the model domain. SSM/I motions generally have a lower bias, but higher error standard deviations and lower correlation with buoys than model motions. There are notable variations in the statistics depending on the region of the Arctic, season, and ice characteristics. Assimilation methods are investigated and blending and optimal interpolation strategies are implemented. Blending assimilation improves error statistics slightly, but the effect of the assimilation is reduced due to noise in the SSM/I motions and is thus not an effective method to improve ice motion estimates. However, optimal interpolation assimilation reduces motion errors by 25--30% over modeled motions and 40--45% over SSM/I motions. Optimal interpolation assimilation is beneficial in all regions, seasons and ice conditions, and is particularly effective in regimes where modeled and SSM/I errors are high. Assimilation alters annual average motion fields. Modeled ice products of ice thickness, ice divergence, Fram Strait ice volume export, transport across the Arctic and interannual basin averages are also influenced by assimilated motions. Assimilation improves estimates of pollutant transport and corrects synoptic-scale errors in the motion fields caused by incorrect forcings or errors in model physics. The portability of the optimal interpolation assimilation method is demonstrated by implementing the strategy in an ice thickness distribution (ITD) model. This research presents an innovative method of combining a new data set of SSM/I-derived ice motions with three different sea ice models via two data assimilation methods. The work described here is the first example of assimilating remotely-sensed data within high-resolution and detailed dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models. The results demonstrate that assimilation is a valuable resource for determining accurate ice motion in the Arctic.

On operational flood forecasting system involving 1D/2D coupled hydraulic model and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthélémy, S.; Ricci, S.; Morel, T.; Goutal, N.; Le Pape, E.; Zaoui, F.

2018-07-01

In the context of hydrodynamic modeling, the use of 2D models is adapted in areas where the flow is not mono-dimensional (confluence zones, flood plains). Nonetheless the lack of field data and the computational cost constraints limit the extensive use of 2D models for operational flood forecasting. Multi-dimensional coupling offers a solution with 1D models where the flow is mono-dimensional and with local 2D models where needed. This solution allows for the representation of complex processes in 2D models, while the simulated hydraulic state is significantly better than that of the full 1D model. In this study, coupling is implemented between three 1D sub-models and a local 2D model for a confluence on the Adour river (France). A Schwarz algorithm is implemented to guarantee the continuity of the variables at the 1D/2D interfaces while in situ observations are assimilated in the 1D sub-models to improve results and forecasts in operational mode as carried out by the French flood forecasting services. An implementation of the coupling and data assimilation (DA) solution with domain decomposition and task/data parallelism is proposed so that it is compatible with operational constraints. The coupling with the 2D model improves the simulated hydraulic state compared to a global 1D model, and DA improves results in 1D and 2D areas.

Integrating models with data in ecology and palaeoecology: advances towards a model-data fusion approach.

PubMed

Peng, Changhui; Guiot, Joel; Wu, Haibin; Jiang, Hong; Luo, Yiqi

2011-05-01

It is increasingly being recognized that global ecological research requires novel methods and strategies in which to combine process-based ecological models and data in cohesive, systematic ways. Model-data fusion (MDF) is an emerging area of research in ecology and palaeoecology. It provides a new quantitative approach that offers a high level of empirical constraint over model predictions based on observations using inverse modelling and data assimilation (DA) techniques. Increasing demands to integrate model and data methods in the past decade has led to MDF utilization in palaeoecology, ecology and earth system sciences. This paper reviews key features and principles of MDF and highlights different approaches with regards to DA. After providing a critical evaluation of the numerous benefits of MDF and its current applications in palaeoecology (i.e., palaeoclimatic reconstruction, palaeovegetation and palaeocarbon storage) and ecology (i.e. parameter and uncertainty estimation, model error identification, remote sensing and ecological forecasting), the paper discusses method limitations, current challenges and future research direction. In the ongoing data-rich era of today's world, MDF could become an important diagnostic and prognostic tool in which to improve our understanding of ecological processes while testing ecological theory and hypotheses and forecasting changes in ecosystem structure, function and services. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Event attribution using data assimilation in an intermediate complexity atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metref, Sammy; Hannart, Alexis; Ruiz, Juan; Carrassi, Alberto; Bocquet, Marc; Ghil, Michael

2016-04-01

A new approach, coined DADA (Data Assimilation for Detection and Attribution) has been recently introduced by Hannart et al. 2015, and is potentially useful for near real time, systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events The method is purposely designed to allow its operability at meteorological centers by synergizing causal attribution with Data Assimilation (DA) methods usually designed to deal with large nonlinear models. In Hannart et al. 2015, the DADA proposal is illustrated in the context of a low-order nonlinear model (forced three-variable Lorenz model) that is of course not realistic to represent the events considered. As a continuation of this stream of work, we therefore propose an implementation of the DADA approach in a realistic intermediate complexity atmospheric model (ICTP AGCM, nicknamed SPEEDY). The SPEEDY model is based on a spectral dynamical core developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (see Held and Suarez 1994). It is a hydrostatic, r-coordinate, spectral-transform model in the vorticity-divergence form described by Bourke (1974). A synthetic dataset of observations of an extreme precipitation event over Southeastern South America is extracted from a long SPEEDY simulation under present climatic conditions (i.e. factual conditions). Then, following the DADA approach, observations of this event are assimilated twice in the SPEEDY model: first in the factual configuration of the model and second under its counterfactual, pre-industrial configuration. We show that attribution can be performed based on the likelihood ratio as in Hannart et al. 2015, but we further extend this result by showing that the likelihood can be split in space, time and variables in order to help identify the specific physical features of the event that bear the causal signature. References: Hannart A., A. Carrassi, M. Bocquet, M. Ghil, P. Naveau, M. Pulido, J. Ruiz, P. Tandeo (2015) DADA: Data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events, Climatic Change, (in press). Held I. M. and M. J. Suarez, (1994): A Proposal for the Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Atmospheric General Circulation Models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 1825-1830. Bourke W. (1972): A multi-level spectral model. I. Formulation and hemispheric integrations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 687-701.

Multisource data assimilation in a Richards equation-based integrated hydrological model: a real-world application to an experimental hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camporese, M.; Botto, A.

2017-12-01

Data assimilation is becoming increasingly popular in hydrological and earth system modeling, as it allows for direct integration of multisource observation data in modeling predictions and uncertainty reduction. For this reason, data assimilation has been recently the focus of much attention also for integrated surface-subsurface hydrological models, whereby multiple terrestrial compartments (e.g., snow cover, surface water, groundwater) are solved simultaneously, in an attempt to tackle environmental problems in a holistic approach. Recent examples include the joint assimilation of water table, soil moisture, and river discharge measurements in catchment models of coupled surface-subsurface flow using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Although the EnKF has been specifically developed to deal with nonlinear models, integrated hydrological models based on the Richards equation still represent a challenge, due to strong nonlinearities that may significantly affect the filter performance. Thus, more studies are needed to investigate the capabilities of EnKF to correct the system state and identify parameters in cases where the unsaturated zone dynamics are dominant. Here, the model CATHY (CATchment HYdrology) is applied to reproduce the hydrological dynamics observed in an experimental hillslope, equipped with tensiometers, water content reflectometer probes, and tipping bucket flow gages to monitor the hillslope response to a series of artificial rainfall events. We assimilate pressure head, soil moisture, and subsurface outflow with EnKF in a number of assimilation scenarios and discuss the challenges, issues, and tradeoffs arising from the assimilation of multisource data in a real-world test case, with particular focus on the capability of DA to update the subsurface parameters.

Ensemble streamflow assimilation with the National Water Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Gochis, D.

2017-12-01

Through case studies of flooding across the US, we compare the performance of the National Water Model (NWM) data assimilation (DA) scheme to that of a newly implemented ensemble Kalman filter approach. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) is an operational implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system. As of August 2016, the NWM forecasts of distributed hydrologic states and fluxes (including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water) over the contiguous United States have been publicly disseminated by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) . It also provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches up to 30 days in advance. The NWM employs a nudging scheme to assimilate more than 6,000 USGS streamflow observations and provide initial conditions for its forecasts. A problem with nudging is how the forecasts relax quickly to open-loop bias in the forecast. This has been partially addressed by an experimental bias correction approach which was found to have issues with phase errors during flooding events. In this work, we present an ensemble streamflow data assimilation approach combining new channel-only capabilities of the NWM and HydroDART (a coupling of the offline WRF-Hydro model and NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed; DART). Our approach focuses on the single model state of discharge and incorporates error distributions on channel-influxes (overland and groundwater) in the assimilation via an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In order to avoid filter degeneracy associated with a limited number of ensemble at large scale, DART's covariance inflation (Anderson, 2009) and localization capabilities are implemented and evaluated. The current NWM data assimilation scheme is compared to preliminary results from the EnKF application for several flooding case studies across the US.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model Coupled Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, A.; Anderson, J. L.; Moncrieff, M.; Collins, N.; Danabasoglu, G.; Hoar, T.; Karspeck, A. R.; Neale, R. B.; Raeder, K.; Tribbia, J. J.

2014-12-01

We present a quantitative evaluation of the simulated MJO in analyses produced with a coupled data assimilation (CDA) framework developed at the National Center for Atmosphere Research. This system is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM; previously known as the Community Climate System Model -CCSM) interfaced to a community facility for ensemble data assimilation (Data Assimilation Research Testbed - DART). The system (multi-component CDA) assimilates data into each of the respective ocean/atmosphere/land model components during the assimilation step followed by an exchange of information between the model components during the forecast step. Note that this is an advancement over many existing prototypes of coupled data assimilation systems, which typically assimilate observations only in one of the model components (i.e., single-component CDA). The more realistic treatment of air-sea interactions and improvements to the model mean state in the multi-component CDA recover many aspects of MJO representation, from its space-time structure and propagation (see Figure 1) to the governing relationships between precipitation and sea surface temperature on intra-seasonal scales. Standard qualitative and process-based diagnostics identified by the MJO Task Force (currently under the auspices of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation) have been used to detect the MJO signals across a suite of coupled model experiments involving both multi-component and single-component DA experiments as well as a free run of the coupled CESM model (i.e., CMIP5 style without data assimilation). Short predictability experiments during the boreal winter are used to demonstrate that the decay rates of the MJO convective anomalies are slower in the multi-component CDA system, which allows it to retain the MJO dynamics for a longer period. We anticipate that the knowledge gained through this study will enhance our understanding of the MJO feedback mechanisms across the air-sea interface, especially regarding ocean impacts on the MJO as well as highlight the capability of coupled data assimilation systems for related tropical intraseasonal variability predictions.

A New Methodology for the Extension of the Impact of Data Assimilation on Ocean Wave Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-01

Assimilation method The analysis fields used were corrected by an assimilation method developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Insti- tute ( Breivik and Reistad...523–535 525 becomes equal to the solution obtained by optimal interpolation (see Bratseth 1986 and Breivik and Reistad 1994). The iterations begin with...updated accordingly. A more detailed description of the assimilation method is given in Breivik and Reistad (1994). 2.3 Kolmogorov–Zurbenko filters

Optimal Access to NASA Water Cycle Data for Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; Arctur, D. K.; Espinoza, G. E.; Rui, H.; Strub, R. F.; Vollmer, B.

2016-12-01

A "Digital Divide" in data representation exists between the preferred way of data access by the hydrology community (i.e., as time series of discrete spatial objects) and the common way of data archival by earth science data centers (i.e., as continuous spatial fields, one file per time step). This Divide has been an obstacle, specifically, between the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. Hydrologic Information System (CUAHSI HIS) and NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). An optimal approach to bridging the Divide, developed by the GES DISC, is to reorganize data from the way they are archived to some way that is optimal for the desired method of data access. Specifically for CUAHSI HIS, selected data sets were reorganized into time series files, one per geographical "point." These time series files, termed "data rods," are pre-generated or virtual (generated on-the-fly). Data sets available as data rods include North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)-Land, and Groundwater and Soil Moisture Conditions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Data Assimilation drought indicators for North America Drought Monitor (GRACE-DA-DM). In order to easily avail the operational water resources community the benefits of optimally reorganized data, we have developed multiple methods of making these data more easily accessible and usable. These include direct access via RESTful Web services, a browser-based Web map and statistical tool for selected NLDAS variables for the U.S. (CONUS), a HydroShare app (Data Rods Explorer, under development) on the Tethys Platform, and access via the GEOSS Portal. Examples of drought-related applications of these data and data access methods are provided.

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Execute Cycled GSI/WRF Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Berndt, Emily; Li, Xuanli; Watson, Leela

2014-01-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) are the operational systems that make up the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) analysis used by National Weather Service forecasters. The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) manages and distributes the code for the WRF and GSI, but it is up to individual researchers to link the systems together and write scripts to run the systems, which can take considerable time for those not familiar with the code. The objective of this project is to develop and disseminate a set of dynamic scripts that mimic the unique cycling configuration of the operational NAM to enable researchers to develop new modeling and data assimilation techniques that can be easily transferred to operations. The current version of the SPoRT GSI/WRF Scripts (v3.0.1) is compatible with WRF v3.3 and GSI v3.0.

Time delayed Ensemble Nudging Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Zhe; Abarbanel, Henry

Optimal nudging method based on time delayed embedding theory has shows potentials on analyzing and data assimilation in previous literatures. To extend the application and promote the practical implementation, new nudging assimilation method based on the time delayed embedding space is presented and the connection with other standard assimilation methods are studied. Results shows the incorporating information from the time series of data can reduce the sufficient observation needed to preserve the quality of numerical prediction, making it a potential alternative in the field of data assimilation of large geophysical models.

New isoforms and assembly of glutamine synthetase in the leaf of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaochun; Wei, Yihao; Shi, Lanxin; Ma, Xinming; Theg, Steven M.

2015-01-01

Glutamine synthetase (GS; EC 6.3.1.2) plays a crucial role in the assimilation and re-assimilation of ammonia derived from a wide variety of metabolic processes during plant growth and development. Here, three developmentally regulated isoforms of GS holoenzyme in the leaf of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) seedlings are described using native-PAGE with a transferase activity assay. The isoforms showed different mobilities in gels, with GSII>GSIII>GSI. The cytosolic GSI was composed of three subunits, GS1, GSr1, and GSr2, with the same molecular weight (39.2kDa), but different pI values. GSI appeared at leaf emergence and was active throughout the leaf lifespan. GSII and GSIII, both located in the chloroplast, were each composed of a single 42.1kDa subunit with different pI values. GSII was active mainly in green leaves, while GSIII showed brief but higher activity in green leaves grown under field conditions. LC-MS/MS experiments revealed that GSII and GSIII have the same amino acid sequence, but GSII has more modification sites. With a modified blue native electrophoresis (BNE) technique and in-gel catalytic activity analysis, only two GS isoforms were observed: one cytosolic and one chloroplastic. Mass calibrations on BNE gels showed that the cytosolic GS1 holoenzyme was ~490kDa and likely a dodecamer, and the chloroplastic GS2 holoenzyme was ~240kDa and likely a hexamer. Our experimental data suggest that the activity of GS isoforms in wheat is regulated by subcellular localization, assembly, and modification to achieve their roles during plant development. PMID:26307137

New isoforms and assembly of glutamine synthetase in the leaf of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.)

DOE PAGES

Wang, Xiaochun; Wei, Yihao; Shi, Lanxin; ...

2015-08-24

Glutamine synthetase (GS; EC 6.3.1.2) plays a crucial role in the assimilation and re-assimilation of ammonia derived from a wide variety of metabolic processes during plant growth and development. Here, three developmentally regulated isoforms of GS holoenzyme in the leaf of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) seedlings are described using native-PAGE with a transferase activity assay. The isoforms showed different mobilities in gels, with GSII>GSIII>GSI. The cytosolic GSI was composed of three subunits, GS1, GSr1, and GSr2, with the same molecular weight (39.2kDa), but different pI values. GSI appeared at leaf emergence and was active throughout the leaf lifespan. GSIImore » and GSIII, both located in the chloroplast, were each composed of a single 42.1kDa subunit with different pI values. GSII was active mainly in green leaves, while GSIII showed brief but higher activity in green leaves grown under field conditions. LC-MS/MS experiments revealed that GSII and GSIII have the same amino acid sequence, but GSII has more modification sites. With a modified blue native electrophoresis (BNE) technique and in-gel catalytic activity analysis, only two GS isoforms were observed: one cytosolic and one chloroplastic. Mass calibrations on BNE gels showed that the cytosolic GS1 holoenzyme was ~490kDa and likely a dodecamer, and the chloroplastic GS2 holoenzyme was ~240kDa and likely a hexamer. Lastly, our experimental data suggest that the activity of GS isoforms in wheat is regulated by subcellular localization, assembly, and modification to achieve their roles during plant development.« less

MATLAB algorithm to implement soil water data assimilation with the Ensemble Kalman Filter using HYDRUS.

PubMed

Valdes-Abellan, Javier; Pachepsky, Yakov; Martinez, Gonzalo

2018-01-01

Data assimilation is becoming a promising technique in hydrologic modelling to update not only model states but also to infer model parameters, specifically to infer soil hydraulic properties in Richard-equation-based soil water models. The Ensemble Kalman Filter method is one of the most widely employed method among the different data assimilation alternatives. In this study the complete Matlab© code used to study soil data assimilation efficiency under different soil and climatic conditions is shown. The code shows the method how data assimilation through EnKF was implemented. Richards equation was solved by the used of Hydrus-1D software which was run from Matlab. •MATLAB routines are released to be used/modified without restrictions for other researchers•Data assimilation Ensemble Kalman Filter method code.•Soil water Richard equation flow solved by Hydrus-1D.

Sensitivity Analysis of a Lagrangian Sea Ice Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabatel, Matthias; Rampal, Pierre; Bertino, Laurent; Carrassi, Alberto; Jones, Christopher K. R. T.

2017-04-01

Large changes in the Arctic sea ice have been observed in the last decades in terms of the ice thickness, extension and drift. Understanding the mechanisms behind these changes is of paramount importance to enhance our modeling and forecasting capabilities. For 40 years, models have been developed to describe the non-linear dynamical response of the sea ice to a number of external and internal factors. Nevertheless, there still exists large deviations between predictions and observations. There are related to incorrect descriptions of the sea ice response and/or to the uncertainties about the different sources of information: parameters, initial and boundary conditions and external forcing. Data assimilation (DA) methods are used to combine observations with models, and there is nowadays an increasing interest of DA for sea-ice models and observations. We consider here the state-of-the art sea-ice model, neXtSIM te{Rampal2016a}, which is based on a time-varying Lagrangian mesh and makes use of the Elasto-Brittle rheology. Our ultimate goal is designing appropriate DA scheme for such a modelling facility. This contribution reports about the first milestone along this line: a sensitivity analysis in order to quantify forecast error to guide model development and to set basis for further Lagrangian DA methods. Specific features of the sea-ice dynamics in relation to the wind are thus analysed. Virtual buoys are deployed across the Arctic domain and their trajectories of motion are analysed. The simulated trajectories are also compared to real buoys trajectories observed. The model response is also compared with that one from a model version not including internal forcing to highlight the role of the rheology. Conclusions and perspectives for the general DA implementation are also discussed. \\bibitem{Rampal2016a} P. Rampal, S. Bouillon, E. Ólason, and M. Morlighem. ne{X}t{SIM}: a new {L}agrangian sea ice model. The Cryosphere, 10 (3): 1055-1073, 2016.

Using Data Assimilation in Real-Time Hydrological Modeling of Groundwater and Stream Flow in Silkeborg, Denmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, X.; Kidmose, J.; Madsen, H.; Zheng, C.; Refsgaard, J. C.

2017-12-01

Climate adaptation strategies have nowadays been used more and more frequently in European cities, such as low impact development to increase infiltration and thus reduce the risk of urban flooding. An alternative approach to cope with the increased precipitation under the future climate condition is by using real-time management techniques to operate the drainage system. In the present study, we developed a real-time hydrological modeling system which can forecast both surface water and groundwater in the city of Silkeborg, Denmark. The model is based on MIKE SHE code, and operates on 50 × 50 m grid cell with hourly time step. Real-time observation data, i.e. groundwater head data from 35 wells and 4 stream flow gauging stations, are used in a data assimilation (DA) framework in order to correct bias in each calculation cell. The DA framework is based on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) where uncertainties from forcing data, model parameters as well as observations are taken into consideration. A case study has been carried out where the DA enabled MIKE SHE model was executed in conjunction with the rainfall products from the Danish Meteorological Institute: short term weather forecast coming from HIRLAM model with temporal resolution of 10 minutes and 8 hours lead time, and longer term forecast coming from HARMONIE model with temporal resolution of 1 hour and 48 hour lead time. The results show that DA can visibly increase the model performance for both groundwater head and stream discharge simulations. Even for the short period when observation data are not available (June 2016), the DA based model can still outperform the model without DA. In the forecasting mode, the simulated stream discharge is much more responsive to the increase of rainfall than groundwater as expected. The predicted and observed groundwater head in some areas only varies in the magnitude of a few centimeters, which does not have so much practical meaning in reality, whereas in other areas it could be as high as 1 m depending on the underlying geology.

Initialization and simulation of a landfalling typhoon using a variational bogus mapped data assimilation (BMDA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Wang, B.; Wang, Y.

2007-12-01

Recently, a new data assimilation method called “3-dimensional variational data assimilation of mapped observation (3DVM)” has been developed by the authors. We have shown that the new method is very efficient and inexpensive compared with its counterpart 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar). The new method has been implemented into the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5V1 (MM5_3DVM). In this study, we apply the new method to the bogus data assimilation (BDA) available in the original MM5 with the 4DVar. By the new approach, a specified sea-level pressure (SLP) field (bogus data) is incorporated into MM5 through the 3DVM (for convenient, we call it variational bogus mapped data assimilation - BMDA) instead of the original 4DVar data assimilation. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the new 3DVM method, initialization and simulation of a landfalling typhoon - typhoon Dan (1999) over the western North Pacific with the new method are compared with that with its counterpart 4DVar in MM5. Results show that the initial structure and the simulated intensity and track are improved more significantly using 3DVM than 4DVar. Sensitivity experiments also show that the simulated typhoon track and intensity are more sensitive to the size of the assimilation window in the 4DVar than that in the 3DVM. Meanwhile, 3DVM takes much less computing cost than its counterpart 4DVar for a given time window.

Ensemble Data Assimilation of Wind and Photovoltaic Power Information in the Convection-permitting High-Resolution Model COSMO-DE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Declair, Stefan; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Potthast, Roland

2016-04-01

Determining the amount of weather dependent renewable energy is a demanding task for transmission system operators (TSOs) and wind and photovoltaic (PV) prediction errors require the use of reserve power, which generate costs and can - in extreme cases - endanger the security of supply. In the project EWeLiNE funded by the German government, the German Weather Service and the Fraunhofer Institute on Wind Energy and Energy System Technology develop innovative weather- and power forecasting models and tools for grid integration of weather dependent renewable energy. The key part in energy prediction process chains is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. Wind speed and irradiation forecast from NWP system are however subject to several sources of error. The quality of the wind power prediction is mainly penalized by forecast error of the NWP model in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which is characterized by high spatial and temporal fluctuations of the wind speed. For PV power prediction, weaknesses of the NWP model to correctly forecast i.e. low stratus, the absorption of condensed water or aerosol optical depth are the main sources of errors. Inaccurate radiation schemes (i.e. the two-stream parametrization) are also known as a deficit of NWP systems with regard to irradiation forecast. To mitigate errors like these, NWP model data can be corrected by post-processing techniques such as model output statistics and calibration using historical observational data. Additionally, latest observations can be used in a pre-processing technique called data assimilation (DA). In DA, not only the initial fields are provided, but the model is also synchronized with reality - the observations - and hence the model error is reduced in the forecast. Besides conventional observation networks like radiosondes, synoptic observations or air reports of wind, pressure and humidity, the number of observations measuring meteorological information indirectly such as satellite radiances, radar reflectivities or GPS slant delays strongly increases. The numerous wind farm and PV plants installed in Germany potentially represent a dense meteorological network assessing irradiation and wind speed through their power measurements. The accuracy of the NWP data may thus be enhanced by extending the observations in the assimilation by this new source of information. Wind power data can serve as indirect measurements of wind speed at hub height. The impact on the NWP model is potentially interesting since conventional observation network lacks measurements in this part of the PBL. Photovoltaic power plants can provide information on clouds, aerosol optical depth or low stratus in terms of remote sensing: the power output is strongly dependent on perturbations along the slant between sun position and PV panel. Additionally, since the latter kind of data is not limited to the vertical column above or below the detector. It may thus complement satellite data and compensate weaknesses in the radiation scheme. In this contribution, the DA method (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, LETKF) is shortly sketched. Furthermore, the computation of the model power equivalents is described and first assimilation results are presented and discussed.

Advanced Doubling Adding Method for Radiative Transfer in Planetary Atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Quanhua; Weng, Fuzhong

2006-12-01

The doubling adding method (DA) is one of the most accurate tools for detailed multiple-scattering calculations. The principle of the method goes back to the nineteenth century in a problem dealing with reflection and transmission by glass plates. Since then the doubling adding method has been widely used as a reference tool for other radiative transfer models. The method has never been used in operational applications owing to tremendous demand on computational resources from the model. This study derives an analytical expression replacing the most complicated thermal source terms in the doubling adding method. The new development is called the advanced doubling adding (ADA) method. Thanks also to the efficiency of matrix and vector manipulations in FORTRAN 90/95, the advanced doubling adding method is about 60 times faster than the doubling adding method. The radiance (i.e., forward) computation code of ADA is easily translated into tangent linear and adjoint codes for radiance gradient calculations. The simplicity in forward and Jacobian computation codes is very useful for operational applications and for the consistency between the forward and adjoint calculations in satellite data assimilation.

Usefulness of Wave Data Assimilation to the WAVE WATCH III Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J. K.; Dykes, J. D.; Yaremchuk, M.; Wittmann, P.

2017-12-01

In-situ and remote-sensed wave data are more abundant currently than in years past, with excellent accuracy at global scales. Forecast skill of the WAVE WATCH III model is improved by assimilation of these measurements and they are also useful for model validation and calibration. It has been known that the impact of assimilation in wind-sea conditions is not large, but spectra that result in large swell with long term propagation are identified and assimilated, the improved accuracy of the initial conditions improve the long-term forecasts. The Navy's assimilation method started with the simple Optimal Interpolation (OI) method. Operationally, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center uses the sequential 2DVar scheme, but a new approach has been tested based on an adjoint-free method to variational assimilation in WAVE WATCH III. We will present the status of wave data assimilation into the WAVE WATCH III numerical model and upcoming development of this new adjoint-free variational approach.

A comparison of linear and non-linear data assimilation methods using the NEMO ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchgessner, Paul; Tödter, Julian; Nerger, Lars

2015-04-01

The assimilation behavior of the widely used LETKF is compared with the Equivalent Weight Particle Filter (EWPF) in a data assimilation application with an idealized configuration of the NEMO ocean model. The experiments show how the different filter methods behave when they are applied to a realistic ocean test case. The LETKF is an ensemble-based Kalman filter, which assumes Gaussian error distributions and hence implicitly requires model linearity. In contrast, the EWPF is a fully nonlinear data assimilation method that does not rely on a particular error distribution. The EWPF has been demonstrated to work well in highly nonlinear situations, like in a model solving a barotropic vorticity equation, but it is still unknown how the assimilation performance compares to ensemble Kalman filters in realistic situations. For the experiments, twin assimilation experiments with a square basin configuration of the NEMO model are performed. The configuration simulates a double gyre, which exhibits significant nonlinearity. The LETKF and EWPF are both implemented in PDAF (Parallel Data Assimilation Framework, http://pdaf.awi.de), which ensures identical experimental conditions for both filters. To account for the nonlinearity, the assimilation skill of the two methods is assessed by using different statistical metrics, like CRPS and Histograms.

Assimilating MODIS-based albedo and snow cover fraction into the Common Land Model to improve snow depth simulation with direct insertion and deterministic ensemble Kalman filter methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jianhui; Shu, Hong

2014-09-01

This study assesses the analysis performance of assimilating the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based albedo and snow cover fraction (SCF) separately or jointly into the physically based Common Land Model (CoLM). A direct insertion method (DI) is proposed to assimilate the black and white-sky albedos into the CoLM. The MODIS-based albedo is calculated with the MODIS bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model parameters product (MCD43B1) and the solar zenith angle as estimated in the CoLM for each time step. Meanwhile, the MODIS SCF (MOD10A1) is assimilated into the CoLM using the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) method. A new DEnKF-albedo assimilation scheme for integrating the DI and DEnKF assimilation schemes is proposed. Our assimilation results are validated against in situ snow depth observations from November 2008 to March 2009 at five sites in the Altay region of China. The experimental results show that all three data assimilation schemes can improve snow depth simulations. But overall, the DEnKF-albedo assimilation shows the best analysis performance as it significantly reduces the bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) during the snow accumulation and ablation periods at all sites except for the Fuyun site. The SCF assimilation via DEnKF produces better results than the albedo assimilation via DI, implying that the albedo assimilation that indirectly updates the snow depth state variable is less efficient than the direct SCF assimilation. For the Fuyun site, the DEnKF-albedo scheme tends to overestimate the snow depth accumulation with the maximum bias and RMSE values because of the large positive innovation (observation minus forecast).

Efficient Methods to Assimilate Satellite Retrievals Based on Information Content. Part 2; Suboptimal Retrieval Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joiner, J.; Dee, D. P.

1998-01-01

One of the outstanding problems in data assimilation has been and continues to be how best to utilize satellite data while balancing the tradeoff between accuracy and computational cost. A number of weather prediction centers have recently achieved remarkable success in improving their forecast skill by changing the method by which satellite data are assimilated into the forecast model from the traditional approach of assimilating retrievals to the direct assimilation of radiances in a variational framework. The operational implementation of such a substantial change in methodology involves a great number of technical details, e.g., pertaining to quality control procedures, systematic error correction techniques, and tuning of the statistical parameters in the analysis algorithm. Although there are clear theoretical advantages to the direct radiance assimilation approach, it is not obvious at all to what extent the improvements that have been obtained so far can be attributed to the change in methodology, or to various technical aspects of the implementation. The issue is of interest because retrieval assimilation retains many practical and logistical advantages which may become even more significant in the near future when increasingly high-volume data sources become available. The central question we address here is: how much improvement can we expect from assimilating radiances rather than retrievals, all other things being equal? We compare the two approaches in a simplified one-dimensional theoretical framework, in which problems related to quality control and systematic error correction are conveniently absent. By assuming a perfect radiative transfer model and perfect knowledge of radiance and background error covariances, we are able to formulate a nonlinear local error analysis for each assimilation method. Direct radiance assimilation is optimal in this idealized context, while the traditional method of assimilating retrievals is suboptimal because it ignores the cross-covariances between background errors and retrieval errors. We show that interactive retrieval assimilation (where the same background used for assimilation is also used in the retrieval step) is equivalent to direct assimilation of radiances with suboptimal analysis weights. We illustrate and extend these theoretical arguments with several one-dimensional assimilation experiments, where we estimate vertical atmospheric profiles using simulated data from both the High-resolution InfraRed Sounder 2 (HIRS2) and the future Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS).

Triple collocation-based estimation of spatially correlated observation error covariance in remote sensing soil moisture data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Kai; Shu, Hong; Nie, Lei; Jiao, Zhenhang

2018-01-01

Spatially correlated errors are typically ignored in data assimilation, thus degenerating the observation error covariance R to a diagonal matrix. We argue that a nondiagonal R carries more observation information making assimilation results more accurate. A method, denoted TC_Cov, was proposed for soil moisture data assimilation to estimate spatially correlated observation error covariance based on triple collocation (TC). Assimilation experiments were carried out to test the performance of TC_Cov. AMSR-E soil moisture was assimilated with a diagonal R matrix computed using the TC and assimilated using a nondiagonal R matrix, as estimated by proposed TC_Cov. The ensemble Kalman filter was considered as the assimilation method. Our assimilation results were validated against climate change initiative data and ground-based soil moisture measurements using the Pearson correlation coefficient and unbiased root mean square difference metrics. These experiments confirmed that deterioration of diagonal R assimilation results occurred when model simulation is more accurate than observation data. Furthermore, nondiagonal R achieved higher correlation coefficient and lower ubRMSD values over diagonal R in experiments and demonstrated the effectiveness of TC_Cov to estimate richly structuralized R in data assimilation. In sum, compared with diagonal R, nondiagonal R may relieve the detrimental effects of assimilation when simulated model results outperform observation data.

Effects of sounding temperature assimilation on weather forecasting - Model dependence studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.; Halem, M.; Atlas, R.

1979-01-01

In comparing various methods for the assimilation of remote sounding information into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the problem of model dependence for the different results obtained becomes important. The paper investigates two aspects of the model dependence question: (1) the effect of increasing horizontal resolution within a given model on the assimilation of sounding data, and (2) the effect of using two entirely different models with the same assimilation method and sounding data. Tentative conclusions reached are: first, that model improvement as exemplified by increased resolution, can act in the same direction as judicious 4-D assimilation of remote sounding information, to improve 2-3 day numerical weather forecasts. Second, that the time continuous 4-D methods developed at GLAS have similar beneficial effects when used in the assimilation of remote sounding information into NWP models with very different numerical and physical characteristics.

Ozone data assimilation with GEOS-Chem: a comparison between 3-D-Var, 4-D-Var, and suboptimal Kalman filter approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, K.; Sandu, A.; Bowman, K. W.; Parrington, M.; Jones, D. B. A.; Lee, M.

2011-08-01

Chemistry transport models determine the evolving chemical state of the atmosphere by solving the fundamental equations that govern physical and chemical transformations subject to initial conditions of the atmospheric state and surface boundary conditions, e.g., surface emissions. The development of data assimilation techniques synthesize model predictions with measurements in a rigorous mathematical framework that provides observational constraints on these conditions. Two families of data assimilation methods are currently widely used: variational and Kalman filter (KF). The variational approach is based on control theory and formulates data assimilation as a minimization problem of a cost functional that measures the model-observations mismatch. The Kalman filter approach is rooted in statistical estimation theory and provides the analysis covariance together with the best state estimate. Suboptimal Kalman filters employ different approximations of the covariances in order to make the computations feasible with large models. Each family of methods has both merits and drawbacks. This paper compares several data assimilation methods used for global chemical data assimilation. Specifically, we evaluate data assimilation approaches for improving estimates of the summertime global tropospheric ozone distribution in August 2006 based on ozone observations from the NASA Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. The resulting analyses are compared against independent ozonesonde measurements to assess the effectiveness of each assimilation method. All assimilation methods provide notable improvements over the free model simulations, which differ from the ozonesonde measurements by about 20 % (below 200 hPa). Four dimensional variational data assimilation with window lengths between five days and two weeks is the most accurate method, with mean differences between analysis profiles and ozonesonde measurements of 1-5 %. Two sequential assimilation approaches (three dimensional variational and suboptimal KF), although derived from different theoretical considerations, provide similar ozone estimates, with relative differences of 5-10 % between the analyses and ozonesonde measurements. Adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques are used to explore the role of of uncertainties in ozone precursors and their emissions on the distribution of tropospheric ozone. A novel technique is introduced that projects 3-D-Variational increments back to an equivalent initial condition, which facilitates comparison with 4-D variational techniques.

Development of WRF-ROI system by incorporating eigen-decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Noh, N.; Song, H.; Lim, G.

2011-12-01

This study presents the development of WRF-ROI system, which is the implementation of Retrospective Optimal Interpolation (ROI) to the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). ROI is a new data assimilation algorithm introduced by Song et al. (2009) and Song and Lim (2009). The formulation of ROI is similar with that of Optimal Interpolation (OI), but ROI iteratively assimilates an observation set at a post analysis time into a prior analysis, possibly providing the high quality reanalysis data. ROI method assimilates the data at post analysis time using perturbation method (Errico and Raeder, 1999) without adjoint model. In previous study, ROI method is applied to Lorenz 40-variable model (Lorenz, 1996) to validate the algorithm and to investigate the capability. It is therefore required to apply this ROI method into a more realistic and complicated model framework such as WRF. In this research, the reduced-rank formulation of ROI is used instead of a reduced-resolution method. The computational costs can be reduced due to the eigen-decomposition of background error covariance in the reduced-rank method. When single profile of observations is assimilated in the WRF-ROI system by incorporating eigen-decomposition, the analysis error tends to be reduced if compared with the background error. The difference between forecast errors with assimilation and without assimilation is obviously increased as time passed, which means the improvement of forecast error by assimilation.

The Value of Information from a GRACE-Enhanced Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwayama, Y.; Bernknopf, R.; Brookshire, D.; Macauley, M.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Rodell, M.; Vail, P.; Thompson, A.

2015-12-01

In this project, we develop a framework to estimate the economic value of information from the Gravity and Climate Experiment (GRACE) for drought monitoring and to understand how the GRACE Data Assimilation (GRACE-DA) system can inform decision making to improve regional economic outcomes. Specifically, we consider the potential societal value of further incorporating GRACE-DA information into the U.S. Drought Monitor mapmaking process. Research activities include (a) a literature review, (b) a series of listening sessions with experts and stakeholders, (c) the development of a conceptual economic framework based on a Bayesian updating procedure, and (d) an econometric analysis and retrospective case study to understand the GRACE-DA contribution to agricultural policy and production decisions. Taken together, the results from these research activities support our conclusion that GRACE-DA has the potential to lower the variance associated with our understanding of drought and that this improved understanding has the potential to change policy decisions that lead to tangible societal benefits.

Improving estimates of water resources in a semi-arid region by assimilating GRACE data into the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tangdamrongsub, Natthachet; Steele-Dunne, Susan C.; Gunter, Brian C.; Ditmar, Pavel G.; Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; Sun, Yu; Xia, Ting; Wang, Zhongjing

2017-04-01

An accurate estimation of water resources dynamics is crucial for proper management of both agriculture and the local ecology, particularly in semi-arid regions. Imperfections in model physics, uncertainties in model land parameters and meteorological data, as well as the human impact on land changes often limit the accuracy of hydrological models in estimating water storages. To mitigate this problem, this study investigated the assimilation of terrestrial water storage variation (TWSV) estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. The region considered was the Hexi Corridor in northern China. The hydrological model used for the analysis was PCR-GLOBWB, driven by satellite-based forcing data from April 2002 to December 2010. The impact of the GRACE data assimilation (DA) scheme was evaluated in terms of the TWSV, as well as the variation of individual hydrological storage estimates. The capability of GRACE DA to adjust the storage level was apparent not only for the entire TWSV but also for the groundwater component. In this study, spatially correlated errors in GRACE data were taken into account, utilizing the full error variance-covariance matrices provided as a part of the GRACE data product. The benefits of this approach were demonstrated by comparing the EnKF results obtained with and without taking into account error correlations. The results were validated against in situ groundwater data from five well sites. On average, the experiments showed that GRACE DA improved the accuracy of groundwater storage estimates by as much as 25 %. The inclusion of error correlations provided an equal or greater improvement in the estimates. In contrast, a validation against in situ streamflow data from two river gauges showed no significant benefits of GRACE DA. This is likely due to the limited spatial and temporal resolution of GRACE observations. Finally, results of the GRACE DA study were used to assess the status of water resources over the Hexi Corridor over the considered 9-year time interval. Areally averaged values revealed that TWS, soil moisture, and groundwater storages over the region decreased with an average rate of approximately 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 cm yr-1 in terms of equivalent water heights, respectively. A particularly rapid decline in TWS (approximately -0.4 cm yr-1) was seen over the Shiyang River basin located in the southeastern part of Hexi Corridor. The reduction mostly occurred in the groundwater layer. An investigation of the relationship between water resources and agricultural activities suggested that groundwater consumption required to maintain crop yield in the growing season for this specific basin was likely the cause of the groundwater depletion.

Accelerating assimilation development for new observing systems using EFSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lien, Guo-Yuan; Hotta, Daisuke; Kalnay, Eugenia; Miyoshi, Takemasa; Chen, Tse-Chun

2018-03-01

To successfully assimilate data from a new observing system, it is necessary to develop appropriate data selection strategies, assimilating only the generally useful data. This development work is usually done by trial and error using observing system experiments (OSEs), which are very time and resource consuming. This study proposes a new, efficient methodology to accelerate the development using ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO). First, non-cycled assimilation of the new observation data is conducted to compute EFSO diagnostics for each observation within a large sample. Second, the average EFSO conditionally sampled in terms of various factors is computed. Third, potential data selection criteria are designed based on the non-cycled EFSO statistics, and tested in cycled OSEs to verify the actual assimilation impact. The usefulness of this method is demonstrated with the assimilation of satellite precipitation data. It is shown that the EFSO-based method can efficiently suggest data selection criteria that significantly improve the assimilation results.

Backbone and stereospecific (13)C methyl Ile (δ1), Leu and Val side-chain chemical shift assignments of Crc.

PubMed

Sharma, Rakhi; Sahu, Bhubanananda; Ray, Malay K; Deshmukh, Mandar V

2015-04-01

Carbon catabolite repression (CCR) allows bacteria to selectively assimilate a preferred compound among a mixture of several potential carbon sources, thus boosting growth and economizing the cost of adaptability to variable nutrients in the environment. The RNA-binding catabolite repression control (Crc) protein acts as a global post-transcriptional regulator of CCR in Pseudomonas species. Crc triggers repression by inhibiting the expression of genes involved in transport and catabolism of non-preferred substrates, thus indirectly favoring assimilation of preferred one. We report here a nearly complete backbone and stereospecific (13)C methyl side-chain chemical shift assignments of Ile (δ1), Leu and Val of Crc (~ 31 kDa) from Pseudomonas syringae Lz4W.

Assimilation of Dual-Polarimetric Radar Observations with WRF GSI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xuanli; Mecikalski, John; Fehnel, Traci; Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi

2014-01-01

Dual-polarimetric (dual-pol) radar typically transmits both horizontally and vertically polarized radio wave pulses. From the two different reflected power returns, more accurate estimate of liquid and solid cloud and precipitation can be provided. The upgrade of the traditional NWS WSR-88D radar to include dual-pol capabilities will soon be completed for the entire NEXRAD network. Therefore, the use of dual-pol radar network will have a broad impact in both research and operational communities. The assimilation of dual-pol radar data is especially challenging as few guidelines have been provided by previous research. It is our goal to examine how to best use dual-pol radar data to improve forecast of severe storm and forecast initialization. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The community GSI system runs in independently environment, yet works functionally equivalent to operational centers. With collaboration with the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, this study explores regional assimilation of the dual-pol radar variables from the WSR-88D radars for real case storms. Our presentation will highlight our recent effort on incorporating the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific differential phase (KDP), and radial velocity (VR) data for initializing convective storms, with a significant focus being on an improved representation of hydrometeor fields. In addition, discussion will be provided on the development of enhanced assimilation procedures in the GSI system with respect to dual-pol variables. Beyond the dual-pol variable assimilation procedure developing within a GSI framework, highresolution (=1 km) WRF model simulations and storm scale data assimilation experiments will be examined, emphasizing both model initialization and short-term forecast of precipitation fields and processes. Further details of the methodology of data assimilation, the impact of different dual-pol variables, the influence on precipitation forecast will be presented at the conference.

Culture Training: Validation Evidence for the Culture Assimilator.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitchell, Terence R.; And Others

The culture assimilator, a programed self-instructional approach to culture training, is described and a series of laboratory experiments and field studies validating the culture assimilator are reviewed. These studies show that the culture assimilator is an effective method of decreasing some of the stress experienced when one works with people…

Aerosol Observability and Predictability: From Research to Operations for Chemical Weather Forecasting. Lagrangian Displacement Ensembles for Aerosol Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

da Silva, Arlindo

2010-01-01

A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of assimilating AOD retrievals from MODIS (on both Aqua and TERRA satellites) from AERONET for validation. The impact on the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting will be fully documented.

Observations and High-Resolution Numerical Simulations of a Non-Developing Tropical Disturbance in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

potential energy CFSR Climate Forecast System Reanalysis COAMPS Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System DA data assimilation DART Data...developing (TCS025) tropical disturbance using the adjoint and tangent linear models for the Coupled Ocean – Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS...for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ELDORA ELectra DOppler RAdar EOL Earth Observing Laboratory GPS global positioning system GTS Global

User's Guide - WRF Lightning Assimilation

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes how to run WRF with the lightning assimilation technique described in Heath et al. (2016). The assimilation method uses gridded lightning data to trigger and suppress sub-grid deep convection in Kain-Fritsch.

A case study of aerosol data assimilation with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model over the contiguous United States using 3D-Var and optimal interpolation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Youhua; Pagowski, Mariusz; Chai, Tianfeng; Pan, Li; Lee, Pius; Baker, Barry; Kumar, Rajesh; Delle Monache, Luca; Tong, Daniel; Kim, Hyun-Cheol

2017-12-01

This study applies the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D-Var assimilation tool originally developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to improve surface PM2.5 predictions over the contiguous United States (CONUS) by assimilating aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM2.5 in version 5.1 of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. An optimal interpolation (OI) method implemented earlier (Tang et al., 2015) for the CMAQ modeling system is also tested for the same period (July 2011) over the same CONUS. Both GSI and OI methods assimilate surface PM2.5 observations at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC, and MODIS AOD at 18:00 UTC. The assimilations of observations using both GSI and OI generally help reduce the prediction biases and improve correlation between model predictions and observations. In the GSI experiments, assimilation of surface PM2.5 (particle matter with diameter < 2.5 µm) leads to stronger increments in surface PM2.5 compared to its MODIS AOD assimilation at the 550 nm wavelength. In contrast, we find a stronger OI impact of the MODIS AOD on surface aerosols at 18:00 UTC compared to the surface PM2.5 OI method. GSI produces smoother result and yields overall better correlation coefficient and root mean squared error (RMSE). It should be noted that the 3D-Var and OI methods used here have several big differences besides the data assimilation schemes. For instance, the OI uses relatively big model uncertainties, which helps yield smaller mean biases, but sometimes causes the RMSE to increase. We also examine and discuss the sensitivity of the assimilation experiments' results to the AOD forward operators.

Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and land-surface models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.P.; Slater, A.G.; Barrett, A.P.; Hay, L.E.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.H.

2006-01-01

This paper describes a data assimilation method that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA) to update hydrologic model states in a mountainous catchment in Colorado. The assimilation method uses SCA information as part of an ensemble Kalman filter to alter the sub-basin distribution of snow as well as the basin water balance. This method permits an optimal combination of model simulations and observations, as well as propagation of information across model states. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with a fairly simple snowpack/water-balance model to evaluate effects of the data assimilation scheme on simulations of streamflow. The assimilation of SCA information results in minor improvements in the accuracy of streamflow simulations near the end of the snowmelt season. The small effect from SCA assimilation is initially surprising. It can be explained both because a substantial portion of snowmelts before any bare ground is exposed, and because the transition from 100% to 0% snow coverage occurs fairly quickly. Both of these factors are basin-dependent. Satellite SCA information is expected to be most useful in basins where snow cover is ephemeral. The data assimilation strategy presented in this study improved the accuracy of the streamflow simulation, indicating that SCA is a useful source of independent information that can be used as part of an integrated data assimilation strategy. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study on the characteristics of retrospective optimal interpolation using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Shin-Woo; Noh, Nam-Kyu; Lim, Gyu-Ho

2013-04-01

This study presents the introduction of retrospective optimal interpolation (ROI) and its application with Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Song et al. (2009) suggested ROI method which is an optimal interpolation (OI) that gradually assimilates observations over the analysis window for variance-minimum estimate of an atmospheric state at the initial time of the analysis window. The assimilation window of ROI algorithm is gradually increased, similar with that of the quasi-static variational assimilation (QSVA; Pires et al., 1996). Unlike QSVA method, however, ROI method assimilates the data at post analysis time using perturbation method (Verlaan and Heemink, 1997) without adjoint model. Song and Lim (2011) improved this method by incorporating eigen-decomposition and covariance inflation. The computational costs for ROI can be reduced due to the eigen-decomposition of background error covariance which can concentrate ROI analyses on the error variances of governing eigenmodes by transforming the control variables into eigenspace. A total energy norm is used for the normalization of each control variables. In this study, ROI method is applied to WRF model with Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) to validate the algorithm and to investigate the capability. Horizontal wind, pressure, potential temperature, and water vapor mixing ratio are used for control variables and observations. Firstly, 1-profile assimilation experiment is performed. Subsequently, OSSE's are performed using the virtual observing system which consists of synop, ship, and sonde data. The difference between forecast errors with assimilation and without assimilation is obviously increased as time passed, which means the improvement of forecast error with the assimilation by ROI. The characteristics and strength/weakness of ROI method are also investigated by conducting the experiments with 3D-Var (3-dimensional variational) method and 4D-Var (4-dimensional variational) method. In the initial time, ROI produces a larger forecast error than that of 4D-Var. However, the difference between the two experimental results is decreased gradually with time, and the ROI shows apparently better result (i.e., smaller forecast error) than that of 4D-Var after 9-hour forecast.

Assimilation of SBUV Version 8 Radiances into the GEOS Ozone DAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Martin D.; Stajner, Ivanka; Bhartia, Pawan K.

2004-01-01

In operational weather forecasting, the assimilation of brightness temperatures from satellite sounders, instead of assimilation of 1D-retrievals has become increasingly common practice over the last two decades. Compared to these systems, assimilation of trace gases is still at a relatively early stage of development, and efforts to directly assimilate radiances instead of retrieved products have just begun a few years ago, partially because it requires much more computation power due to the employment of a radiative transport forward model (FM). This paper will focus on a method to assimilate SBUV/2 radiances (albedos) into the Global Earth Observation System Ozone Data Assimilation Scheme (GEOS-03DAS). While SBUV-type instruments cannot compete with newer sensors in terms of spectral and horizontal resolution, they feature a continuous data record back to 1978, which makes them very valuable for trend studies. Assimilation can help spreading their ground coverage over the whole globe, as has been previously demonstrated with the GEOS-03DAS using SBUV Version 6 ozone profiles. Now, the DAS has been updated to use the newly released SBUV Version 8 data. We will compare pre]lmlnarv results of SBUV radiance assimilation with the assimilation of retrieved ozone profiles, discuss methods to deal with the increased computational load, and try to assess the error characteristics and future potential of the new approach.

A Hybrid Forward-Adjoint Data Assimilation Method for Reconstructing the Temporal Evolution of Mantle Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Q.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Quantifying past mantle dynamic processes represents a major challenge in understanding the temporal evolution of the solid earth. Mantle convection modeling with data assimilation is one of the most powerful tools to investigate the dynamics of plate subduction and mantle convection. Although various data assimilation methods, both forward and inverse, have been created, these methods all have limitations in their capabilities to represent the real earth. Pure forward models tend to miss important mantle structures due to the incorrect initial condition and thus may lead to incorrect mantle evolution. In contrast, pure tomography-based models cannot effectively resolve the fine slab structure and would fail to predict important subduction-zone dynamic processes. Here we propose a hybrid data assimilation method that combines the unique power of the sequential and adjoint algorithms, which can properly capture the detailed evolution of the downgoing slab and the tomographically constrained mantle structures, respectively. We apply this new method to reconstructing mantle dynamics below the western U.S. while considering large lateral viscosity variations. By comparing this result with those from several existing data assimilation methods, we demonstrate that the hybrid modeling approach recovers the realistic 4-D mantle dynamics to the best.

The remarkable diversity of plant PEPC (phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase): recent insights into the physiological functions and post-translational controls of non-photosynthetic PEPCs.

PubMed

O'Leary, Brendan; Park, Joonho; Plaxton, William C

2011-05-15

PEPC [PEP (phosphoenolpyruvate) carboxylase] is a tightly controlled enzyme located at the core of plant C-metabolism that catalyses the irreversible β-carboxylation of PEP to form oxaloacetate and Pi. The critical role of PEPC in assimilating atmospheric CO(2) during C(4) and Crassulacean acid metabolism photosynthesis has been studied extensively. PEPC also fulfils a broad spectrum of non-photosynthetic functions, particularly the anaplerotic replenishment of tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates consumed during biosynthesis and nitrogen assimilation. An impressive array of strategies has evolved to co-ordinate in vivo PEPC activity with cellular demands for C(4)-C(6) carboxylic acids. To achieve its diverse roles and complex regulation, PEPC belongs to a small multigene family encoding several closely related PTPCs (plant-type PEPCs), along with a distantly related BTPC (bacterial-type PEPC). PTPC genes encode ~110-kDa polypeptides containing conserved serine-phosphorylation and lysine-mono-ubiquitination sites, and typically exist as homotetrameric Class-1 PEPCs. In contrast, BTPC genes encode larger ~117-kDa polypeptides owing to a unique intrinsically disordered domain that mediates BTPC's tight interaction with co-expressed PTPC subunits. This association results in the formation of unusual ~900-kDa Class-2 PEPC hetero-octameric complexes that are desensitized to allosteric effectors. BTPC is a catalytic and regulatory subunit of Class-2 PEPC that is subject to multi-site regulatory phosphorylation in vivo. The interaction between divergent PEPC polypeptides within Class-2 PEPCs adds another layer of complexity to the evolution, physiological functions and metabolic control of this essential CO(2)-fixing plant enzyme. The present review summarizes exciting developments concerning the functions, post-translational controls and subcellular location of plant PTPC and BTPC isoenzymes.

Ionospheric data assimilation applied to HF geolocation in the presence of traveling ionospheric disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, C. N.; Rankov, N. R.; Bust, G. S.; Miller, E.; Gaussiran, T.; Calfas, R.; Doyle, J. D.; Teig, L. J.; Werth, J. L.; Dekine, I.

2017-07-01

Ionospheric data assimilation is a technique to evaluate the 3-D time varying distribution of electron density using a combination of a physics-based model and observations. A new ionospheric data assimilation method is introduced that has the capability to resolve traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). TIDs are important because they cause strong delay and refraction to radio signals that are detrimental to the accuracy of high-frequency (HF) geolocation systems. The capability to accurately specify the ionosphere through data assimilation can correct systems for the error caused by the unknown ionospheric refraction. The new data assimilation method introduced here uses ionospheric models in combination with observations of HF signals from known transmitters. The assimilation methodology was tested by the ability to predict the incoming angles of HF signals from transmitters at a set of nonassimilated test locations. The technique is demonstrated and validated using observations collected during 2 days of a dedicated campaign of ionospheric measurements at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico in January 2014. This is the first time that full HF ionospheric data assimilation using an ensemble run of a physics-based model of ionospheric TIDs has been demonstrated. The results show a significant improvement over HF angle-of-arrival prediction using an empirical model and also over the classic method of single-site location using an ionosonde close to the midpoint of the path. The assimilative approach is extendable to include other types of ionospheric measurements.

Ensemble Data Assimilation of Photovoltaic Power Information in the Convection-permitting High-Resolution Model COSMO-DE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Declair, Stefan; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Potthast, Roland

2017-04-01

Determining the amount of weather dependent renewable energy is a demanding task for transmission system operators (TSOs) and wind and photovoltaic (PV) prediction errors require the use of reserve power, which generate costs and can - in extreme cases - endanger the security of supply. In the project EWeLiNE funded by the German government, the German Weather Service and the Fraunhofer Institute on Wind Energy and Energy System Technology develop innovative weather- and power forecasting models and tools for grid integration of weather dependent renewable energy. The key part in energy prediction process chains is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. Irradiation forecasts from NWP systems are however subject to several sources of error. For PV power prediction, weaknesses of the NWP model to correctly forecast i.e. low stratus, absorption of condensed water or aerosol optical depths are the main sources of errors. Inaccurate radiation schemes (i.e. the two-stream parametrization) are also known as a deficit of NWP systems with regard to irradiation forecast. To mitigate errors like these, latest observations can be used in a pre-processing technique called data assimilation (DA). In DA, not only the initial fields are provided, but the model is also synchronized with reality - the observations - and hence forecast errors are reduced. Besides conventional observation networks like radiosondes, synoptic observations or air reports of wind, pressure and humidity, the number of observations measuring meteorological information indirectly by means of remote sensing such as satellite radiances, radar reflectivities or GPS slant delays strongly increases. Numerous PV plants installed in Germany potentially represent a dense meteorological network assessing irradiation through their power measurements. Forecast accuracy may thus be enhanced by extending the observations in the assimilation by this new source of information. PV power plants can provide information on clouds, aerosol optical depth or low stratus in terms of remote sensing: the power output is strongly dependent on perturbations along the slant between sun position and PV panel. Since these data are not limited to the vertical column above or below the detector, it may thus complement satellite data and compensate weaknesses in the radiation scheme. In this contribution, the used DA technique (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, LETKF) is shortly sketched. Furthermore, the computation of the model power equivalents is described and first results are presented and discussed.

Data assimilation method based on the constraints of confidence region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yong; Li, Siming; Sheng, Yao; Wang, Luheng

2018-03-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.

State and parameter estimation of two land surface models using the ensemble Kalman filter and the particle filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongjuan; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Vereecken, Harry

2017-09-01

Land surface models (LSMs) use a large cohort of parameters and state variables to simulate the water and energy balance at the soil-atmosphere interface. Many of these model parameters cannot be measured directly in the field, and require calibration against measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, sensible and/or latent heat, and/or observations of the thermal and/or moisture state of the soil. Here, we evaluate the usefulness and applicability of four different data assimilation methods for joint parameter and state estimation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC-3L) and the Community Land Model (CLM) using a 5-month calibration (assimilation) period (March-July 2012) of areal-averaged SPADE soil moisture measurements at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths in the Rollesbroich experimental test site in the Eifel mountain range in western Germany. We used the EnKF with state augmentation or dual estimation, respectively, and the residual resampling PF with a simple, statistically deficient, or more sophisticated, MCMC-based parameter resampling method. The performance of the calibrated LSM models was investigated using SPADE water content measurements of a 5-month evaluation period (August-December 2012). As expected, all DA methods enhance the ability of the VIC and CLM models to describe spatiotemporal patterns of moisture storage within the vadose zone of the Rollesbroich site, particularly if the maximum baseflow velocity (VIC) or fractions of sand, clay, and organic matter of each layer (CLM) are estimated jointly with the model states of each soil layer. The differences between the soil moisture simulations of VIC-3L and CLM are much larger than the discrepancies among the four data assimilation methods. The EnKF with state augmentation or dual estimation yields the best performance of VIC-3L and CLM during the calibration and evaluation period, yet results are in close agreement with the PF using MCMC resampling. Overall, CLM demonstrated the best performance for the Rollesbroich site. The large systematic underestimation of water storage at 50 cm depth by VIC-3L during the first few months of the evaluation period questions, in part, the validity of its fixed water table depth at the bottom of the modeled soil domain.

Data assimilation to extract soil moisture information from SMAP observations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study compares different methods to extract soil moisture information through the assimilation of Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations. Neural Network(NN) and physically-based SMAP soil moisture retrievals were assimilated into the NASA Catchment model over the contiguous United Sta...

Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Wick, Gary A.; Neiman, Paul J.

2013-01-01

This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

Evaluation of Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment Products on South Florida Nested Simulations with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Ocean Model 7:285-322 Halliwell GR Jr, Weisberg RH, Mayer DA (2003) A synthetic float analysis of upper-limb meridional overturning circulation ...encompasses a variety of coastal regions (the broad Southwest Florida shelf, the narrow Atlantic Keys shelf, the shallow Florida Bay, and Biscayne...products. The results indicate that the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns in a coastal area that is characterized by complex topography and

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume

2013-01-01

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Model Uncertainty Quantification Methods In Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S. D.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Moradkhani, H.

2017-12-01

Data Assimilation involves utilising observations to improve model predictions in a seamless and statistically optimal fashion. Its applications are wide-ranging; from improving weather forecasts to tracking targets such as in the Apollo 11 mission. The use of Data Assimilation methods in high dimensional complex geophysical systems is an active area of research, where there exists many opportunities to enhance existing methodologies. One of the central challenges is in model uncertainty quantification; the outcome of any Data Assimilation study is strongly dependent on the uncertainties assigned to both observations and models. I focus on developing improved model uncertainty quantification methods that are applicable to challenging real world scenarios. These include developing methods for cases where the system states are only partially observed, where there is little prior knowledge of the model errors, and where the model error statistics are likely to be highly non-Gaussian.

Lifetime Segmented Assimilation Trajectories and Health Outcomes in Latino and Other Community Residents

PubMed Central

Marsiglia, Flavio F.; Kulis, Stephen; Kellison, Joshua G.

2010-01-01

Objectives. Under an ecodevelopmental framework, we examined lifetime segmented assimilation trajectories (diverging assimilation pathways influenced by prior life conditions) and related them to quality-of-life indicators in a diverse sample of 258 men in the Pheonix, AZ, metropolitan area. Methods. We used a growth mixture model analysis of lifetime changes in socioeconomic status, and used acculturation to identify distinct lifetime segmented assimilation trajectory groups, which we compared on life satisfaction, exercise, and dietary behaviors. We hypothesized that lifetime assimilation change toward mainstream American culture (upward assimilation) would be associated with favorable health outcomes, and downward assimilation change with unfavorable health outcomes. Results. A growth mixture model latent class analysis identified 4 distinct assimilation trajectory groups. In partial support of the study hypotheses, the extreme upward assimilation trajectory group (the most successful of the assimilation pathways) exhibited the highest life satisfaction and the lowest frequency of unhealthy food consumption. Conclusions. Upward segmented assimilation is associated in adulthood with certain positive health outcomes. This may be the first study to model upward and downward lifetime segmented assimilation trajectories, and to associate these with life satisfaction, exercise, and dietary behaviors. PMID:20167890

Effect of different molecular weight organic components on the increase of microbial growth potential of secondary effluent by ozonation.

PubMed

Zhao, Xin; Hu, Hong-Ying; Yu, Tong; Su, Chang; Jiang, Haochi; Liu, Shuming

2014-11-01

Ozonation has been widely applied in advanced wastewater treatment. In this study, the effect of ozonation on assimilable organic carbon (AOC) levels in secondary effluents was investigated, and AOC variation of different molecular weight (MW) organic components was analyzed. Although the removal efficiencies were 47%-76% and 94%-100% for UV254 and color at ozone dosage of 10mg/L, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in secondary effluents was hardly removed by ozonation. The AOC levels increased by 70%-780% at an ozone dosage range of 1-10mg/L. AOC increased significantly in the instantaneous ozone demand phase, and the increase in AOC was correlated to the decrease in UV254 during ozonation. The results of MW distribution showed that, ozonation led to the transformation of larger molecules into smaller ones, but the increase in low MW (<1kDa) fraction did not contribute much to AOC production. The change of high MW (>100kDa and 10-100kDa) fractions itself during ozonation was the main reason for the increase of AOC levels. Furthermore, the oxidation of organic matters with high MWs (>100kDa and 10-100kDa) resulted in more AOC production than those with low MWs (1-10kDa and <1kDa). The results indicated that removing large molecules in secondary effluents could limit the increase of AOC during ozonation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Sensitivity of WRF precipitation field to assimilation sources in northeastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzana, Jesús; Merino, Andrés; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-González, Sergio; Gascón, Estíbaliz; Hermida, Lucía; Sánchez, José Luis; López, Laura; Marcos, José Luis

2015-04-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) of precipitation is a challenge. Models predict precipitation after solving many physical processes. In particular, mesoscale NWP models have different parameterizations, such as microphysics, cumulus or radiation schemes. These facilitate, according to required spatial and temporal resolutions, precipitation fields with increasing reliability. Nevertheless, large uncertainties are inherent to precipitation forecasting. Consequently, assimilation methods are very important. The Atmospheric Physics Group at the University of León in Spain and the Castile and León Supercomputing Center carry out daily weather prediction based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. Forecasts of severe precipitation affecting the Ebro Valley, in the southern Pyrenees range of northeastern Spain, are crucial in the decision-making process for managing reservoirs or initializing runoff models. These actions can avert floods and ensure uninterrupted economic activity in the area. We investigated a set of cases corresponding to intense or severe precipitation patterns, using a rain gauge network. Simulations were performed with a dual objective, i.e., to analyze forecast improvement using a specific assimilation method, and to study the sensitivity of model outputs to different types of assimilation data. A WRF forecast model initialized by an NCEP SST analysis was used as the control run. The assimilation was based on the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) developed by NOAA. The MADIS data used were METAR, maritime, ACARS, radiosonde, and satellite products. The results show forecast improvement using the suggested assimilation method, and differences in the accuracy of forecast precipitation patterns varied with the assimilation data source.

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume; Koster, Randal D. (Editor)

2014-01-01

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume

2014-01-01

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Information loss in approximately bayesian data assimilation: a comparison of generative and discriminative approaches to estimating agricultural yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Data assimilation and regression are two commonly used methods for predicting agricultural yield from remote sensing observations. Data assimilation is a generative approach because it requires explicit approximations of the Bayesian prior and likelihood to compute the probability density function...

The Culture Assimilator: An Approach to Cross-Cultural Training. Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fiedler, Fred E.; And Others

The construction of self-administered, programed, culture training manuals, called "Culture Assimilators," is described here. These programs provide an apparently effective method for assisting members of one culture to interact and adjust successfully with members of another culture. Culture assimilators have been constructed for the…

Assessment of model behavior and acceptable forcing data uncertainty in the context of land surface soil moisture estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumedah, Gift; Walker, Jeffrey P.

2017-03-01

The sources of uncertainty in land surface models are numerous and varied, from inaccuracies in forcing data to uncertainties in model structure and parameterizations. Majority of these uncertainties are strongly tied to the overall makeup of the model, but the input forcing data set is independent with its accuracy usually defined by the monitoring or the observation system. The impact of input forcing data on model estimation accuracy has been collectively acknowledged to be significant, yet its quantification and the level of uncertainty that is acceptable in the context of the land surface model to obtain a competitive estimation remain mostly unknown. A better understanding is needed about how models respond to input forcing data and what changes in these forcing variables can be accommodated without deteriorating optimal estimation of the model. As a result, this study determines the level of forcing data uncertainty that is acceptable in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) to competitively estimate soil moisture in the Yanco area in south eastern Australia. The study employs hydro genomic mapping to examine the temporal evolution of model decision variables from an archive of values obtained from soil moisture data assimilation. The data assimilation (DA) was undertaken using the advanced Evolutionary Data Assimilation. Our findings show that the input forcing data have significant impact on model output, 35% in root mean square error (RMSE) for 5cm depth of soil moisture and 15% in RMSE for 15cm depth of soil moisture. This specific quantification is crucial to illustrate the significance of input forcing data spread. The acceptable uncertainty determined based on dominant pathway has been validated and shown to be reliable for all forcing variables, so as to provide optimal soil moisture. These findings are crucial for DA in order to account for uncertainties that are meaningful from the model standpoint. Moreover, our results point to a proper treatment of input forcing data in general land surface and hydrological model estimation.

A Hybrid Approach to Data Assimilation for Reconstructing the Evolution of Mantle Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Quan; Liu, Lijun

2017-11-01

Quantifying past mantle dynamic processes represents a major challenge in understanding the temporal evolution of the solid earth. Mantle convection modeling with data assimilation is one of the most powerful tools to investigate the dynamics of plate subduction and mantle convection. Although various data assimilation methods, both forward and inverse, have been created, these methods all have limitations in their capabilities to represent the real earth. Pure forward models tend to miss important mantle structures due to the incorrect initial condition and thus may lead to incorrect mantle evolution. In contrast, pure tomography-based models cannot effectively resolve the fine slab structure and would fail to predict important subduction-zone dynamic processes. Here we propose a hybrid data assimilation approach that combines the unique power of the sequential and adjoint algorithms, which can properly capture the detailed evolution of the downgoing slab and the tomographically constrained mantle structures, respectively. We apply this new method to reconstructing mantle dynamics below the western U.S. while considering large lateral viscosity variations. By comparing this result with those from several existing data assimilation methods, we demonstrate that the hybrid modeling approach recovers the realistic 4-D mantle dynamics the best.

A multi-source data assimilation framework for flood forecasting: Accounting for runoff routing lags

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, S.; Xie, X.

2015-12-01

In the flood forecasting practice, model performance is usually degraded due to various sources of uncertainties, including the uncertainties from input data, model parameters, model structures and output observations. Data assimilation is a useful methodology to reduce uncertainties in flood forecasting. For the short-term flood forecasting, an accurate estimation of initial soil moisture condition will improve the forecasting performance. Considering the time delay of runoff routing is another important effect for the forecasting performance. Moreover, the observation data of hydrological variables (including ground observations and satellite observations) are becoming easily available. The reliability of the short-term flood forecasting could be improved by assimilating multi-source data. The objective of this study is to develop a multi-source data assimilation framework for real-time flood forecasting. In this data assimilation framework, the first step is assimilating the up-layer soil moisture observations to update model state and generated runoff based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method, and the second step is assimilating discharge observations to update model state and runoff within a fixed time window based on the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) method. This smoothing technique is adopted to account for the runoff routing lag. Using such assimilation framework of the soil moisture and discharge observations is expected to improve the flood forecasting. In order to distinguish the effectiveness of this dual-step assimilation framework, we designed a dual-EnKF algorithm in which the observed soil moisture and discharge are assimilated separately without accounting for the runoff routing lag. The results show that the multi-source data assimilation framework can effectively improve flood forecasting, especially when the runoff routing has a distinct time lag. Thus, this new data assimilation framework holds a great potential in operational flood forecasting by merging observations from ground measurement and remote sensing retrivals.

A Global Carbon Assimilation System using a modified EnKF assimilation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Zheng, X.; Chen, Z.; Dan, B.; Chen, J. M.; Yi, X.; Wang, L.; Wu, G.

2014-10-01

A Global Carbon Assimilation System based on Ensemble Kalman filter (GCAS-EK) is developed for assimilating atmospheric CO2 abundance data into an ecosystem model to simultaneously estimate the surface carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2 distribution. This assimilation approach is based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), but with several new developments, including using analysis states to iteratively estimate ensemble forecast errors, and a maximum likelihood estimation of the inflation factors of the forecast and observation errors. The proposed assimilation approach is tested in observing system simulation experiments and then used to estimate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2 distributions from 2002 to 2008. The results showed that this assimilation approach can effectively reduce the biases and uncertainties of the carbon fluxes simulated by the ecosystem model.

Development of the Nonstationary Incremental Analysis Update Algorithm for Sequential Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Song, Hyo-Jong; Jung, Jaehee; Lim, Gyu-Ho

2017-04-01

This study introduces a altered version of the incremental analysis updates (IAU), called the nonstationary IAU (NIAU) method, to enhance the assimilation accuracy of the IAU while retaining the continuity of the analysis. Analogous to the IAU, the NIAU is designed to add analysis increments at every model time step to improve the continuity in the intermittent data assimilation. Still, unlike the IAU, the NIAU method applies time-evolved forcing employing the forward operator as rectifications to the model. The solution of the NIAU is better than that of the IAU, of which analysis is performed at the start of the time window for adding the IAU forcing, in terms of the accuracy of the analysis field. It is because, in the linear systems, the NIAU solution equals that in an intermittent data assimilation method at the end of the assimilation interval. To have the filtering property in the NIAU, a forward operator to propagate the increment is reconstructed with only dominant singular vectors. An illustration of those advantages of the NIAU is given using the simple 40-variable Lorenz model.

Adjoint-Based Climate Model Tuning: Application to the Planet Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Guokun; Köhl, Armin; Matei, Ion; Stammer, Detlef

2018-01-01

The adjoint method is used to calibrate the medium complexity climate model "Planet Simulator" through parameter estimation. Identical twin experiments demonstrate that this method can retrieve default values of the control parameters when using a long assimilation window of the order of 2 months. Chaos synchronization through nudging, required to overcome limits in the temporal assimilation window in the adjoint method, is employed successfully to reach this assimilation window length. When assimilating ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the observations of air temperature and the radiative fluxes are the most important data for adjusting the control parameters. The global mean net longwave fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere are significantly improved by tuning two model parameters controlling the absorption of clouds and water vapor. The global mean net shortwave radiation at the surface is improved by optimizing three model parameters controlling cloud optical properties. The optimized parameters improve the free model (without nudging terms) simulation in a way similar to that in the assimilation experiments. Results suggest a promising way for tuning uncertain parameters in nonlinear coupled climate models.

Rainfall assimilation in RAMS by means of the Kuo parameterisation inversion: method and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlandi, A.; Ortolani, A.; Meneguzzo, F.; Levizzani, V.; Torricella, F.; Turk, F. J.

2004-03-01

In order to improve high-resolution forecasts, a specific method for assimilating rainfall rates into the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System model has been developed. It is based on the inversion of the Kuo convective parameterisation scheme. A nudging technique is applied to 'gently' increase with time the weight of the estimated precipitation in the assimilation process. A rough but manageable technique is explained to estimate the partition of convective precipitation from stratiform one, without requiring any ancillary measurement. The method is general purpose, but it is tuned for geostationary satellite rainfall estimation assimilation. Preliminary results are presented and discussed, both through totally simulated experiments and through experiments assimilating real satellite-based precipitation observations. For every case study, Rainfall data are computed with a rapid update satellite precipitation estimation algorithm based on IR and MW satellite observations. This research was carried out in the framework of the EURAINSAT project (an EC research project co-funded by the Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme within the topic 'Development of generic Earth observation technologies', Contract number EVG1-2000-00030).

Assimilating concentration observations for transport and dispersion modeling in a meandering wind field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Beyer-Lout, Anke; Long, Kerrie J.; Young, George S.

Assimilating concentration data into an atmospheric transport and dispersion model can provide information to improve downwind concentration forecasts. The forecast model is typically a one-way coupled set of equations: the meteorological equations impact the concentration, but the concentration does not generally affect the meteorological field. Thus, indirect methods of using concentration data to influence the meteorological variables are required. The problem studied here involves a simple wind field forcing Gaussian dispersion. Two methods of assimilating concentration data to infer the wind direction are demonstrated. The first method is Lagrangian in nature and treats the puff as an entity using feature extraction coupled with nudging. The second method is an Eulerian field approach akin to traditional variational approaches, but minimizes the error by using a genetic algorithm (GA) to directly optimize the match between observations and predictions. Both methods show success at inferring the wind field. The GA-variational method, however, is more accurate but requires more computational time. Dynamic assimilation of a continuous release modeled by a Gaussian plume is also demonstrated using the genetic algorithm approach.

A statistical data assimilation method for seasonal streamflow forecasting to optimize hydropower reservoir management in data-scarce regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, R.; Mai, J.; Latraverse, M.; Tolson, B.

2017-12-01

Probabilistic ensemble forecasts generated by the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) methodology are subject to biases due to errors in the hydrological model's initial states. In day-to-day operations, hydrologists must compensate for discrepancies between observed and simulated states such as streamflow. However, in data-scarce regions, little to no information is available to guide the streamflow assimilation process. The manual assimilation process can then lead to more uncertainty due to the numerous options available to the forecaster. Furthermore, the model's mass balance may be compromised and could affect future forecasts. In this study we propose a data-driven approach in which specific variables that may be adjusted during assimilation are defined. The underlying principle was to identify key variables that would be the most appropriate to modify during streamflow assimilation depending on the initial conditions such as the time period of the assimilation, the snow water equivalent of the snowpack and meteorological conditions. The variables to adjust were determined by performing an automatic variational data assimilation on individual (or combinations of) model state variables and meteorological forcing. The assimilation aimed to simultaneously optimize: (1) the error between the observed and simulated streamflow at the timepoint where the forecasts starts and (2) the bias between medium to long-term observed and simulated flows, which were simulated by running the model with the observed meteorological data on a hindcast period. The optimal variables were then classified according to the initial conditions at the time period where the forecast is initiated. The proposed method was evaluated by measuring the average electricity generation of a hydropower complex in Québec, Canada driven by this method. A test-bed which simulates the real-world assimilation, forecasting, water release optimization and decision-making of a hydropower cascade was developed to assess the performance of each individual process in the reservoir management chain. Here the proposed method was compared to the PF algorithm while keeping all other elements intact. Preliminary results are encouraging in terms of power generation and robustness for the proposed approach.

Quasi-static ensemble variational data assimilation: a theoretical and numerical study with the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fillion, Anthony; Bocquet, Marc; Gratton, Serge

2018-04-01

The analysis in nonlinear variational data assimilation is the solution of a non-quadratic minimization. Thus, the analysis efficiency relies on its ability to locate a global minimum of the cost function. If this minimization uses a Gauss-Newton (GN) method, it is critical for the starting point to be in the attraction basin of a global minimum. Otherwise the method may converge to a local extremum, which degrades the analysis. With chaotic models, the number of local extrema often increases with the temporal extent of the data assimilation window, making the former condition harder to satisfy. This is unfortunate because the assimilation performance also increases with this temporal extent. However, a quasi-static (QS) minimization may overcome these local extrema. It accomplishes this by gradually injecting the observations in the cost function. This method was introduced by Pires et al. (1996) in a 4D-Var context. We generalize this approach to four-dimensional strong-constraint nonlinear ensemble variational (EnVar) methods, which are based on both a nonlinear variational analysis and the propagation of dynamical error statistics via an ensemble. This forces one to consider the cost function minimizations in the broader context of cycled data assimilation algorithms. We adapt this QS approach to the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS), an exemplar of nonlinear deterministic four-dimensional EnVar methods. Using low-order models, we quantify the positive impact of the QS approach on the IEnKS, especially for long data assimilation windows. We also examine the computational cost of QS implementations and suggest cheaper algorithms.

Aerosol EnKF at GMAO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchard, Virginie; Da Silva, Arlindo; Todling, Ricardo

2017-01-01

In the GEOS near real-time system, as well as in MERRA-2 which is the latest reanalysis produced at NASAs Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), the assimilation of aerosol observations is performed by means of a so-called analysis splitting method. In line with the transition of the GEOS meteorological data assimilation system to a hybrid Ensemble-Variational formulation, we are updating the aerosol component of our assimilation system to an ensemble square root filter(EnSRF; Whitaker and Hamill (2002)) type of scheme.We present a summary of our preliminary results of the assimilation of column integrated aerosol observations (Aerosol Optical Depth; AOD) using an Ensemble Square Root Filters (EnSRF) scheme and the ensemble members produced routinely by the meteorological assimilation.

Parameter estimation in physically-based integrated hydrological models with the ensemble Kalman filter: a practical application.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botto, Anna; Camporese, Matteo

2017-04-01

Hydrological models allow scientists to predict the response of water systems under varying forcing conditions. In particular, many physically-based integrated models were recently developed in order to understand the fundamental hydrological processes occurring at the catchment scale. However, the use of this class of hydrological models is still relatively limited, as their prediction skills heavily depend on reliable parameter estimation, an operation that is never trivial, being normally affected by large uncertainty and requiring huge computational effort. The objective of this work is to test the potential of data assimilation to be used as an inverse modeling procedure for the broad class of integrated hydrological models. To pursue this goal, a Bayesian data assimilation (DA) algorithm based on a Monte Carlo approach, namely the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is combined with the CATchment HYdrology (CATHY) model. In this approach, input variables (atmospheric forcing, soil parameters, initial conditions) are statistically perturbed providing an ensemble of realizations aimed at taking into account the uncertainty involved in the process. Each realization is propagated forward by the CATHY hydrological model within a parallel R framework, developed to reduce the computational effort. When measurements are available, the EnKF is used to update both the system state and soil parameters. In particular, four different assimilation scenarios are applied to test the capability of the modeling framework: first only pressure head or water content are assimilated, then, the combination of both, and finally both pressure head and water content together with the subsurface outflow. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in a real-world scenario, an artificial hillslope was designed and built to provide real measurements for the DA analyses. The experimental facility, located in the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering of the University of Padova (Italy), consists of a reinforced concrete box containing a soil prism with maximum height of 3.5 m, length of 6 m and width of 2 m. The hillslope is equipped with six pairs of tensiometers and water content reflectometers, to monitor the pressure head and soil moisture content, respectively. Moreover, two tipping bucket flow gages were used to measure the surface and subsurface discharges at the outlet. A 12-day long experiment was carried out, during which a series of four rainfall events with constant rainfall rate were generated, interspersed with phases of drainage. During the experiment, measurements were collected at a relatively high resolution of 0.5 Hz. We report here on the capability of the data assimilation framework to estimate sets of plausible parameters that are consistent with the experimental setup.

Assimilation of satellite surface-height anomalies data into a Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) over the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanajura, C. A. S.; Lima, L. N.; Belyaev, K. P.

2015-09-01

The data of sea height anomalies calculated along the tracks of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellites are assimilated into the HYCOM hydrodynamic ocean model developed at the University of Miami, USA. We used a known method of data assimilation, the so-called ensemble method of the optimal interpolation scheme (EnOI). In this work, we study the influence of the assimilation of sea height anomalies on other variables of the model. The behavior of the time series of the analyzed and predicted values of the model is compared with a reference calculation (free run), i.e., with the behavior of model variables without assimilation but under the same initial and boundary conditions. The results of the simulation are also compared with the independent data of observations on moorings of the Pilot Research Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) and the data of the ARGO floats using objective metrics. The investigations demonstrate that data assimilation under specific conditions results in a significant improvement of the 24-h prediction of the ocean state. The experiments also show that the assimilated fields of the ocean level contain a clearly pronounced mesoscale variability; thus they quantitatively differ from the dynamics obtained in the reference experiment.

Improvement of aerosol optical properties modeling over Eastern Asia with MODIS AOD assimilation in a global non-hydrostatic icosahedral aerosol transport model.

PubMed

Dai, Tie; Schutgens, Nick A J; Goto, Daisuke; Shi, Guangyu; Nakajima, Teruyuki

2014-12-01

A new global aerosol assimilation system adopting a more complex icosahedral grid configuration is developed. Sensitivity tests for the assimilation system are performed utilizing satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the results over Eastern Asia are analyzed. The assimilated results are validated through independent Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations. Our results reveal that the ensemble and local patch sizes have little effect on the assimilation performance, whereas the ensemble perturbation method has the largest effect. Assimilation leads to significantly positive effect on the simulated AOD field, improving agreement with all of the 12 AERONET sites over the Eastern Asia based on both the correlation coefficient and the root mean square difference (assimilation efficiency). Meanwhile, better agreement of the Ångström Exponent (AE) field is achieved for 8 of the 12 sites due to the assimilation of AOD only. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Upscaling with data assimilation in soil hydrology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Most of measurements in soil hydrology are point-based, and methods are needed to use the point-based data for estimating soil water contents at larger societally-important scales, such as field, hillslope or watershed. One group of appropriate methods involves data assimilation which is a methodolo...

Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index into the Community Land Model with Explicit Carbon and Nitrogen Components using Data Assimilation Research Testbed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, X.; Fu, C.; Yang, Z. L.; Guo, W.

2017-12-01

Information of the spatial and temporal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) is crucial to understand the exchanges of momentum, carbon, energy, and water between the terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere, while both in-situ observation and model simulation usually show distinct deficiency in terms of LAI coverage and value. Land data assimilation, combined with observation and simulation together, is a promising way to provide variable estimation. The Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) developed and maintained by the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) provides a powerful tool to facilitate the combination of assimilation algorithms, models, and real (as well as synthetic) observations to better understanding of all three. Here we systematically investigated the effects of data assimilation on improving LAI simulation based on NCAR Community Land Model with the prognostic carbon-nitrogen option (CLM4CN) linked with DART using the deterministic Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF). Random 40-member atmospheric forcing was used to drive the CLM4CN with or without LAI assimilation. The Global Land Surface Satellite LAI data (GLASS LAI) LAI is assimilated into the CLM4CN at a frequency of 8 days, and LAI (and leaf carbon / nitrogen) are adjusted at each time step. The results show that assimilating remotely sensed LAI into the CLM4CN is an effective method for improving model performance. In detail, the CLM4-CN simulated LAI systematically overestimates global LAI, especially in low latitude with the largest bias of 5 m2/m2. While if updating both LAI and leaf carbon and leaf nitrogen simultaneously during assimilation, the analyzed LAI can be corrected, especially in low latitude regions with the bias controlled around ±1 m2/m2. Analyzed LAI could also represent the seasonal variation except for the Southern Temperate (23°S-90°S). The obviously improved regions located in the center of Africa, Amazon, the South of Eurasia, the northeast of China, and the west of Europe, where were mainly covered by evergreen/deciduous forests and mixed forests. In addition, the best method for LAI assimilation should include the EAKF method, the accepted percentage of all observation, as well as the carbon-nitrogen control.

Comparison Between the Use of SAR and Optical Data for Wheat Yield Estimations Using Crop Model Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvestro, Paolo Cosmo; Yang, Hao; Jin, X. L.; Yang, Guijun; Casa, Raffaele; Pignatti, Stefano

2016-08-01

The ultimate aim of this work is to develop methods for the assimilation of the biophysical variables estimated by remote sensing in a suitable crop growth model. Two strategies were followed, one based on the use of Leaf Area Index (LAI) estimated by optical data, and the other based on the use of biomass estimated by SAR. The first one estimates LAI from the reflectance measured by the optical sensors on board of HJ1A, HJ1B and Landsat, using a method based on the training of artificial neural networks (ANN) with PROSAIL model simulations. The retrieved LAI is used to improve wheat yield estimation, using assimilation methods based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter, which assimilate the biophysical variables into growth crop model. The second strategy estimates biomass from SAR imagery. Polarimetric decomposition methods were used based on multi-temporal fully polarimetric Radarsat-2 data during the entire growing season. The estimated biomass was assimilating to FAO Aqua crop model for improving the winter wheat yield estimation, with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. These procedures were used in a spatial application with data collected in the rural area of Yangling (Shaanxi Province) in 2014 and were validated for a number of wheat fields for which ground yield data had been recorded and according to statistical yield data for the area.

Application of a data assimilation method via an ensemble Kalman filter to reactive urea hydrolysis transport modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Juxiu Tong; Bill X. Hu; Hai Huang

2014-03-01

With growing importance of water resources in the world, remediations of anthropogenic contaminations due to reactive solute transport become even more important. A good understanding of reactive rate parameters such as kinetic parameters is the key to accurately predicting reactive solute transport processes and designing corresponding remediation schemes. For modeling reactive solute transport, it is very difficult to estimate chemical reaction rate parameters due to complex processes of chemical reactions and limited available data. To find a method to get the reactive rate parameters for the reactive urea hydrolysis transport modeling and obtain more accurate prediction for the chemical concentrations,more » we developed a data assimilation method based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method to calibrate reactive rate parameters for modeling urea hydrolysis transport in a synthetic one-dimensional column at laboratory scale and to update modeling prediction. We applied a constrained EnKF method to pose constraints to the updated reactive rate parameters and the predicted solute concentrations based on their physical meanings after the data assimilation calibration. From the study results we concluded that we could efficiently improve the chemical reactive rate parameters with the data assimilation method via the EnKF, and at the same time we could improve solute concentration prediction. The more data we assimilated, the more accurate the reactive rate parameters and concentration prediction. The filter divergence problem was also solved in this study.« less

A multivariate variational objective analysis-assimilation method. Part 2: Case study results with and without satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, Gary L.; Kidder, Stanley Q.; Scott, Robert W.

1988-01-01

The variational multivariate assimilation method described in a companion paper by Achtemeier and Ochs is applied to conventional and conventional plus satellite data. Ground-based and space-based meteorological data are weighted according to the respective measurement errors and blended into a data set that is a solution of numerical forms of the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation for a dry atmosphere. The analyses serve first, to evaluate the accuracy of the model, and second to contrast the analyses with and without satellite data. Evaluation criteria measure the extent to which: (1) the assimilated fields satisfy the dynamical constraints, (2) the assimilated fields depart from the observations, and (3) the assimilated fields are judged to be realistic through pattern analysis. The last criterion requires that the signs, magnitudes, and patterns of the hypersensitive vertical velocity and local tendencies of the horizontal velocity components be physically consistent with respect to the larger scale weather systems.

Advances in Land Data Assimilation at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf

2009-01-01

Research in land surface data assimilation has grown rapidly over the last decade. In this presentation we provide a brief overview of key research contributions by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The GSFC contributions to land assimilation primarily include the continued development and application of the Land Information System (US) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In particular, we have developed a method to generate perturbation fields that are correlated in space, time, and across variables and that permit the flexible modeling of errors in land surface models and observations, along with an adaptive filtering approach that estimates observation and model error input parameters. A percentile-based scaling method that addresses soil moisture biases in model and observational estimates opened the path to the successful application of land data assimilation to satellite retrievals of surface soil moisture. Assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals into the NASA Catchment model provided superior surface and root zone assimilation products (when validated against in situ measurements and compared to the model estimates or satellite observations alone). The multi-model capabilities of US were used to investigate the role of subsurface physics in the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations. Results indicate that the potential of surface soil moisture assimilation to improve root zone information is higher when the surface to root zone coupling is stronger. Building on this experience, GSFC leads the development of the Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product for the planned NASA Soil-Moisture-Active-Passive (SMAP) mission. A key milestone was the design and execution of an Observing System Simulation Experiment that quantified the contribution of soil moisture retrievals to land data assimilation products as a function of retrieval and land model skill and yielded an estimate of the error budget for the SMAP L4_SM product. Terrestrial water storage observations from GRACE satellite system were also successfully assimilated into the NASA Catchment model and provided improved estimates of groundwater variability when compared to the model estimates alone. Moreover, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST) observations from the ISCCP archive were assimilated using a bias estimation module that was specifically designed for LST assimilation. As with soil moisture, LST assimilation provides modest yet statistically significant improvements when compared to the model or satellite observations alone. To achieve the improvement, however, the LST assimilation algorithm must be adapted to the specific formulation of LST in the land model. An improved method for the assimilation of snow cover observations was also developed. Finally, the coupling of LIS to the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enabled investigations into how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of planetary boundary layer scheme and land surface model varies across surface moisture regimes, and how it can be quantified and evaluated against observations. The on-going development and integration of land assimilation modules into the Land Information System will enable the use of GSFC software with a variety of land models and make it accessible to the research community.

A Comparison of Methods for a Priori Bias Correction in Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sujay V.; Reichle, Rolf H.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Yatheendradas, Soni; Santanello, Joseph A.

2011-01-01

Data assimilation is being increasingly used to merge remotely sensed land surface variables such as soil moisture, snow and skin temperature with estimates from land models. Its success, however, depends on unbiased model predictions and unbiased observations. Here, a suite of continental-scale, synthetic soil moisture assimilation experiments is used to compare two approaches that address typical biases in soil moisture prior to data assimilation: (i) parameter estimation to calibrate the land model to the climatology of the soil moisture observations, and (ii) scaling of the observations to the model s soil moisture climatology. To enable this research, an optimization infrastructure was added to the NASA Land Information System (LIS) that includes gradient-based optimization methods and global, heuristic search algorithms. The land model calibration eliminates the bias but does not necessarily result in more realistic model parameters. Nevertheless, the experiments confirm that model calibration yields assimilation estimates of surface and root zone soil moisture that are as skillful as those obtained through scaling of the observations to the model s climatology. Analysis of innovation diagnostics underlines the importance of addressing bias in soil moisture assimilation and confirms that both approaches adequately address the issue.

The Goddard Snow Radiance Assimilation Project: An Integrated Snow Radiance and Snow Physics Modeling Framework for Snow/cold Land Surface Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, E.; Tedesco, M.; Reichle, R.; Choudhury, B.; Peters-Lidard C.; Foster, J.; Hall, D.; Riggs, G.

2006-01-01

Microwave-based retrievals of snow parameters from satellite observations have a long heritage and have so far been generated primarily by regression-based empirical "inversion" methods based on snapshots in time. Direct assimilation of microwave radiance into physical land surface models can be used to avoid errors associated with such retrieval/inversion methods, instead utilizing more straightforward forward models and temporal information. This approach has been used for years for atmospheric parameters by the operational weather forecasting community with great success. Recent developments in forward radiative transfer modeling, physical land surface modeling, and land data assimilation are converging to allow the assembly of an integrated framework for snow/cold lands modeling and radiance assimilation. The objective of the Goddard snow radiance assimilation project is to develop such a framework and explore its capabilities. The key elements of this framework include: a forward radiative transfer model (FRTM) for snow, a snowpack physical model, a land surface water/energy cycle model, and a data assimilation scheme. In fact, multiple models are available for each element enabling optimization to match the needs of a particular study. Together these form a modular and flexible framework for self-consistent, physically-based remote sensing and water/energy cycle studies. In this paper we will describe the elements and the integration plan. All modules will operate within the framework of the Land Information System (LIS), a land surface modeling framework with data assimilation capabilities running on a parallel-node computing cluster. Capabilities for assimilation of snow retrieval products are already under development for LIS. We will describe plans to add radiance-based assimilation capabilities. Plans for validation activities using field measurements will also be discussed.

Evaluation of the observation operator Jacobian for leaf area index data assimilation with an extended Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rüdiger, Christoph; Albergel, CléMent; Mahfouf, Jean-FrançOis; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Walker, Jeffrey P.

2010-05-01

To quantify carbon and water fluxes between the vegetation and the atmosphere in a consistent manner, land surface models now include interactive vegetation components. These models treat the vegetation biomass as a prognostic model state, allowing the model to dynamically adapt the vegetation states to environmental conditions. However, it is expected that the prediction skill of such models can be greatly increased by assimilating biophysical observations such as leaf area index (LAI). The Jacobian of the observation operator, a central aspect of data assimilation methods such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the variational assimilation methods, provides the required linear relationship between the observation and the model states. In this paper, the Jacobian required for assimilating LAI into the Interaction between the Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere-A-gs land surface model using the EKF is studied. In particular, sensitivity experiments were undertaken on the size of the initial perturbation for estimating the Jacobian and on the length of the time window between initial state and available observation. It was found that small perturbations (0.1% of the state) typically lead to accurate estimates of the Jacobian. While other studies have shown that the assimilation of LAI with 10 day assimilation windows is possible, 1 day assimilation intervals can be chosen to comply with numerical weather prediction requirements. Moreover, the seasonal dependence of the Jacobian revealed contrasted groups of Jacobian values due to environmental factors. Further analyses showed the Jacobian values to vary as a function of the LAI itself, which has important implications for its assimilation in different seasons, as the size of the LAI increments will subsequently vary due to the variability of the Jacobian.

Aerosol Data Assimilation at GMAO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

da Silva, Arlindo M.; Buchard, Virginie

2017-01-01

This presentation presents an overview of the aerosol data assimilation work performed at GMAO. The GMAO Forward Processing system and the biomass burning emissions from QFED are first presented. Then, the current assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), performed by means of the analysis splitting method is briefly described, followed by some results on the quality control of observations using a Neural Network trained using AERONET AOD. Some applications are shown such as the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 using the MERRA-2 aerosol dataset. Finally preliminary results on the EnKF implementation for aerosol assimilation are presented.

Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a sediment transport model of China's largest freshwater lake: spatial and temporal effects.

PubMed

Zhang, Peng; Chen, Xiaoling; Lu, Jianzhong; Zhang, Wei

2015-12-01

Numerical models are important tools that are used in studies of sediment dynamics in inland and coastal waters, and these models can now benefit from the use of integrated remote sensing observations. This study explores a scheme for assimilating remotely sensed suspended sediment (from charge-coupled device (CCD) images obtained from the Huanjing (HJ) satellite) into a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. Optimal interpolation is used as the assimilation method, and model predictions are obtained by combining four remote sensing images. The parameters for optimal interpolation are determined through a series of assimilation experiments evaluating the sediment predictions based on field measurements. The model with assimilation of remotely sensed sediment reduces the root-mean-square error of the predicted sediment concentrations by 39.4% relative to the model without assimilation, demonstrating the effectiveness of the assimilation scheme. The spatial effect of assimilation is explored by comparing model predictions with remotely sensed sediment, revealing that the model with assimilation generates reasonable spatial distribution patterns of suspended sediment. The temporal effect of assimilation on the model's predictive capabilities varies spatially, with an average temporal effect of approximately 10.8 days. The current velocities which dominate the rate and direction of sediment transport most likely result in spatial differences in the temporal effect of assimilation on model predictions.

The use of satellite data assimilation methods in regional NWP for solar irradiance forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurzrock, Frederik; Cros, Sylvain; Chane-Ming, Fabrice; Potthast, Roland; Linguet, Laurent; Sébastien, Nicolas

2016-04-01

As an intermittent energy source, the injection of solar power into electricity grids requires irradiance forecasting in order to ensure grid stability. On time scales of more than six hours ahead, numerical weather prediction (NWP) is recognized as the most appropriate solution. However, the current representation of clouds in NWP models is not sufficiently precise for an accurate forecast of solar irradiance at ground level. Dynamical downscaling does not necessarily increase the quality of irradiance forecasts. Furthermore, incorrectly simulated cloud evolution is often the cause of inaccurate atmospheric analyses. In non-interconnected tropical areas, the large amplitudes of solar irradiance variability provide abundant solar yield but present significant problems for grid safety. Irradiance forecasting is particularly important for solar power stakeholders in these regions where PV electricity penetration is increasing. At the same time, NWP is markedly more challenging in tropic areas than in mid-latitudes due to the special characteristics of tropical homogeneous convective air masses. Numerous data assimilation methods and strategies have evolved and been applied to a large variety of global and regional NWP models in the recent decades. Assimilating data from geostationary meteorological satellites is an appropriate approach. Indeed, models converting radiances measured by satellites into cloud properties already exist. Moreover, data are available at high temporal frequencies, which enable a pertinent cloud cover evolution modelling for solar energy forecasts. In this work, we present a survey of different approaches which aim at improving cloud cover forecasts using the assimilation of geostationary meteorological satellite data into regional NWP models. Various approaches have been applied to a variety of models and satellites and in different regions of the world. Current methods focus on the assimilation of cloud-top information, derived from infrared channels. For example, those information have been directly assimilated by modifying the water vapour profile in the initial conditions of the WRF model in California using GOES satellite imagery. In Europe, the assimilation of cloud-top height and relative humidity has been performed in an indirect approach using an ensemble Kalman filter. In this case Meteosat SEVIRI cloud information has been assimilated in the COSMO model. Although such methods generally provide improved cloud cover forecasts in mid-latitudes, the major limitation is that only clear-sky or completely cloudy cases can be considered. Indeed, fractional clouds cause a measured signal mixing cold clouds and warmer Earth surface. If the model's initial state is directly forced by cloud properties observed by satellite, the changed model fields have to be smoothed in order to avoid numerical instability. Other crucial aspects which influence forecast quality in the case of satellite radiance assimilation are channel selection, bias and error treatment. The overall promising satellite data assimilation methods in regional NWP have not yet been explicitly applied and tested under tropical conditions. Therefore, a deeper understanding on the benefits of such methods is necessary to improve irradiance forecast schemes.

Data assimilation of non-conventional observations using GEOS-R flash lightning: 1D+4D-VAR approach vs. assimilation of images (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navon, M. I.; Stefanescu, R.

2013-12-01

Previous assimilation of lightning used nudging approaches. We develop three approaches namely, 3D-VAR WRFDA and1D+nD-VAR (n=3,4) WRFDA . The present research uses Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) as a proxy between lightning data and model variables. To test performance of aforementioned schemes, we assess quality of resulting analysis and forecasts of precipitation compared to those from a control experiment and verify them against NCEP stage IV precipitation. Results demonstrate that assimilating lightning observations improves precipitation statistics during the assimilation window and for 3-7 h thereafter. The 1D+4D-VAR approach yielded the best performance significantly improving precipitation rmse errors by 25% and 27.5%,compared to control during the assimilation window for two tornadic test cases. Finally we propose a new approach to assimilate 2-D images of lightning flashes based on pixel intensity, mitigating dimensionality by a reduced order method.

Data assimilation of citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.

2017-12-01

Many studies in data assimilation in hydrology have focused on the integration of satellite remote sensing and in-situ monitoring data into hydrologic or land surface models. For flood predictions also, recent studies have demonstrated to assimilate remotely sensed inundation information with flood inundation models. In actual flood disaster situations, citizen collected information including local reports by residents and rescue teams and more recently tweets via social media also contain valuable information. The main interest of this study is how to effectively use such citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping. Here we propose a new data assimilation technique based on pre-conducted ensemble inundation simulations and update inundation depth distributions sequentially when local data becomes available. The propose method is composed by the following two-steps. The first step is based on weighting average of preliminary ensemble simulations, whose weights are updated by Bayesian approach. The second step is based on an optimal interpolation, where the covariance matrix is calculated from the ensemble simulations. The proposed method was applied to case studies including an actual flood event occurred. It considers two situations with more idealized one by assuming continuous flood inundation depth information is available at multiple locations. The other one, which is more realistic case during such a severe flood disaster, assumes uncertain and non-continuous information is available to be assimilated. The results show that, in the first idealized situation, the large scale inundation during the flooding was estimated reasonably with RMSE < 0.4 m in average. For the second more realistic situation, the error becomes larger (RMSE 0.5 m) and the impact of the optimal interpolation becomes comparatively less effective. Nevertheless, the applications of the proposed data assimilation method demonstrated a high potential of this method for assimilating citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping in the future.

Treating Sample Covariances for Use in Strongly Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Polly J.; Lawless, Amos S.; Nichols, Nancy K.

2018-01-01

Strongly coupled data assimilation requires cross-domain forecast error covariances; information from ensembles can be used, but limited sampling means that ensemble derived error covariances are routinely rank deficient and/or ill-conditioned and marred by noise. Thus, they require modification before they can be incorporated into a standard assimilation framework. Here we compare methods for improving the rank and conditioning of multivariate sample error covariance matrices for coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation. The first method, reconditioning, alters the matrix eigenvalues directly; this preserves the correlation structures but does not remove sampling noise. We show that it is better to recondition the correlation matrix rather than the covariance matrix as this prevents small but dynamically important modes from being lost. The second method, model state-space localization via the Schur product, effectively removes sample noise but can dampen small cross-correlation signals. A combination that exploits the merits of each is found to offer an effective alternative.

Assimilation efficiency for sediment-sorbed benzo(a)pyrene by Diporeia spp.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lydy, M.J.; Landrum, P.F.

1993-01-01

Two methods are currently available for determining contaminant assimilation efficiencies (AE) from ingested material in benthic invertebrates. These methods were compared using the Great Lakes amphipod Diporeia spp. and [14C]benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) sorbed to Florissant sediment (< 63 µm). The first approach, the direct measurement method, uses total organic carbon as a tracer and yielded AE values ranging from 45.9~50.4%. The second approach, the dual-labeled method, uses 51Cr as a non-assimilated tracer and did not yield AE values for our data. The inability of the dual-labeled approach to estimate AEs was due, in part, to the selective feeding by Diporeia resulting in a failure of the non-assimilated tracer (51Cr) to track with the assimilated tracer ([14C]BaP). The failure of the dual-labeled approach was not a result of an uneven distribution of the labels among particle size classes, but more likely resulted from differential sorption of the two isotopically labeled materials to particles of differing composition. The [14C]BaP apparently sorbs to organic particles that are selectively ingested, while the 51Cr apparently sorbs to particles which are selectively excluded by Diporeia. The dual-labeled approach would be a viable and easier experimental approach for determining AE values if the characteristics that govern selective feeding can be determined.

Assimilation of river altimetry data for effective bed elevation and roughness coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brêda, João Paulo L. F.; Paiva, Rodrigo C. D.; Bravo, Juan Martin; Passaia, Otávio

2017-04-01

Hydrodynamic models of large rivers are important prediction tools of river discharge, height and floods. However, these techniques still carry considerable errors; part of them related to parameters uncertainties related to river bathymetry and roughness coefficient. Data from recent spatial altimetry missions offers an opportunity to reduce parameters uncertainty through inverse methods. This study aims to develop and access different methods of altimetry data assimilation to improve river bottom levels and Manning roughness estimations in a 1-D hydrodynamic model. The case study was a 1,100 km reach of the Madeira River, a tributary of the Amazon. The tested assimilation methods are direct insertion, linear interpolation, SCE-UA global optimization algorithm and a Kalman Filter adaptation. The Kalman Filter method is composed by new physically based covariance functions developed from steady-flow and backwater equations. It is accessed the benefits of altimetry missions with different spatio-temporal resolutions, such as ICESAT-1, Envisat and Jason 2. Level time series of 5 gauging stations and 5 GPS river height profiles are used to assess and validate the assimilation methods. Finally, the potential of future missions are discussed, such as ICESAT-2 and SWOT satellites.

Investigating the role of background and observation error correlations in improving a model forecast of forest carbon balance using four dimensional variational data assimilation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinnington, Ewan; Casella, Eric; Dance, Sarah; Lawless, Amos; Morison, James; Nichols, Nancy; Wilkinson, Matthew; Quaife, Tristan

2016-04-01

Forest ecosystems play an important role in sequestering human emitted carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere and therefore greatly reduce the effect of anthropogenic induced climate change. For that reason understanding their response to climate change is of great importance. Efforts to implement variational data assimilation routines with functional ecology models and land surface models have been limited, with sequential and Markov chain Monte Carlo data assimilation methods being prevalent. When data assimilation has been used with models of carbon balance, background "prior" errors and observation errors have largely been treated as independent and uncorrelated. Correlations between background errors have long been known to be a key aspect of data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. More recently, it has been shown that accounting for correlated observation errors in the assimilation algorithm can considerably improve data assimilation results and forecasts. In this paper we implement a 4D-Var scheme with a simple model of forest carbon balance, for joint parameter and state estimation and assimilate daily observations of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange (NEE) taken at the Alice Holt forest CO2 flux site in Hampshire, UK. We then investigate the effect of specifying correlations between parameter and state variables in background error statistics and the effect of specifying correlations in time between observation error statistics. The idea of including these correlations in time is new and has not been previously explored in carbon balance model data assimilation. In data assimilation, background and observation error statistics are often described by the background error covariance matrix and the observation error covariance matrix. We outline novel methods for creating correlated versions of these matrices, using a set of previously postulated dynamical constraints to include correlations in the background error statistics and a Gaussian correlation function to include time correlations in the observation error statistics. The methods used in this paper will allow the inclusion of time correlations between many different observation types in the assimilation algorithm, meaning that previously neglected information can be accounted for. In our experiments we compared the results using our new correlated background and observation error covariance matrices and those using diagonal covariance matrices. We found that using the new correlated matrices reduced the root mean square error in the 14 year forecast of daily NEE by 44 % decreasing from 4.22 g C m-2 day-1 to 2.38 g C m-2 day-1.

An Initial Assessment of the Impact of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Assimilation on Navy Global and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, N. L.; Tsu, J.; Swadley, S. D.

2017-12-01

We assess the impact of assimilation of CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) ocean surface winds observations into the NAVGEM[i] global and COAMPS®[ii] mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Both NAVGEM and COAMPS® used the NRL 4DVar assimilation system NAVDAS-AR[iii]. Long term monitoring of the NAVGEM Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI) indicates that the forecast error reduction for ocean surface wind vectors (ASCAT and WindSat) are significantly larger than for SSMIS wind speed observations. These differences are larger than can be explained by simply two pieces of information (for wind vectors) versus one (wind speed). To help understand these results, we conducted a series of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to compare the assimilation of ASCAT wind vectors with the equivalent (computed) ASCAT wind speed observations. We found that wind vector assimilation was typically 3 times more effective at reducing the NAVGEM forecast error, with a higher percentage of beneficial observations. These results suggested that 4DVar, in the absence of an additional nonlinear outer loop, has limited ability to modify the analysis wind direction. We examined several strategies for assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface wind speed observations. In the first approach, we assimilated CYGNSS as wind speed observations, following the same methodology used for SSMIS winds. The next two approaches converted CYGNSS wind speed to wind vectors, using NAVGEM sea level pressure fields (following Holton, 1979), and using NAVGEM 10-m wind fields with the AER Variational Analysis Method. Finally, we compared these methods to CYGNSS wind speed assimilation using multiple outer loops with NAVGEM Hybrid 4DVar. Results support the earlier studies suggesting that NAVDAS-AR wind speed assimilation is sub-optimal. We present detailed results from multi-month NAVGEM assimilation runs along with case studies using COAMPS®. Comparisons include the fit of analyses and forecasts with in-situ observations and analyses from other NWP centers (e.g. ECMWF and GFS). [i] NAVy Global Environmental Model [ii] COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory for the Navy's Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System. [iii] NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System

Ocean Data Assimilation in Support of Climate Applications: Status and Perspectives.

PubMed

Stammer, D; Balmaseda, M; Heimbach, P; Köhl, A; Weaver, A

2016-01-01

Ocean data assimilation brings together observations with known dynamics encapsulated in a circulation model to describe the time-varying ocean circulation. Its applications are manifold, ranging from marine and ecosystem forecasting to climate prediction and studies of the carbon cycle. Here, we address only climate applications, which range from improving our understanding of ocean circulation to estimating initial or boundary conditions and model parameters for ocean and climate forecasts. Because of differences in underlying methodologies, data assimilation products must be used judiciously and selected according to the specific purpose, as not all related inferences would be equally reliable. Further advances are expected from improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information in data assimilation systems. Ultimately, data assimilation into coupled climate system components is needed to support ocean and climate services. However, maintaining the infrastructure and expertise for sustained data assimilation remains challenging.

CDEP Consortium on Ocean Data Assimilation for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (ODASI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele; Zebiak, Stephen; Kinter, James; Behringer, David; Rosati, Antonio; Kaplan, Alexey

2005-01-01

The ODASI consortium is focused activity of the NOAA/OGP/Climate Diagnostics and Experimental Prediction Program with the goal of improving ocean data assimilation methods and their implementations in support of seasonal forecasts with coupled general circulation models. The consortium is undertaking coordinated assimilation experiments, with common forcing data sets and common input data streams. With different assimilation systems and different models, we aim to understand what approach works best in improving forecast skill in the equatorial Pacific. The presentation will provide an overview of the consortium goals and plans and recent results focused towards evaluating data impacts.

Assimilation of total lightning data using the three-dimensional variational method at convection-allowing resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong; Zhang, Yijun; Xu, Liangtao; Zheng, Dong; Yao, Wen

2017-08-01

A large number of observational analyses have shown that lightning data can be used to indicate areas of deep convection. It is important to assimilate observed lightning data into numerical models, so that more small-scale information can be incorporated to improve the quality of the initial condition and the subsequent forecasts. In this study, the empirical relationship between flash rate, water vapor mixing ratio, and graupel mixing ratio was used to adjust the model relative humidity, which was then assimilated by using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting model in cycling mode at 10-min intervals. To find the appropriate assimilation time-window length that yielded significant improvement in both the initial conditions and subsequent forecasts, four experiments with different assimilation time-window lengths were conducted for a squall line case that occurred on 10 July 2007 in North China. It was found that 60 min was the appropriate assimilation time-window length for this case, and longer assimilation window length was unnecessary since no further improvement was present. Forecasts of 1-h accumulated precipitation during the assimilation period and the subsequent 3-h accumulated precipitation were significantly improved compared with the control experiment without lightning data assimilation. The simulated reflectivity was optimal after 30 min of the forecast, it remained optimal during the following 42 min, and the positive effect from lightning data assimilation began to diminish after 72 min of the forecast. Overall, the improvement from lightning data assimilation can be maintained for about 3 h.

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations . Part II; Sensitivity Tests and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

da Silva, Arlindo M.; Norris, Peter M.

2013-01-01

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

A survey of implicit particle filters for data assimilation [Implicit particle filters for data assimilation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chorin, Alexandre J.; Morzfeld, Matthias; Tu, Xuemin

Implicit particle filters for data assimilation update the particles by first choosing probabilities and then looking for particle locations that assume them, guiding the particles one by one to the high probability domain. We provide a detailed description of these filters, with illustrative examples, together with new, more general, methods for solving the algebraic equations and with a new algorithm for parameter identification.

Land Surface Model Biases and their Impacts on the Assimilation of Snow-related Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, K. R.; Kumar, S.; Hunter, S. M.; Aman, R.; Houser, P. R.; Toll, D.; Engman, T.; Nigro, J.

2007-12-01

Some recent snow modeling studies have employed a wide range of assimilation methods to incorporate snow cover or other snow-related observations into different hydrological or land surface models. These methods often include taking both model and observation biases into account throughout the model integration. This study focuses more on diagnosing the model biases and presenting their subsequent impacts on assimilating snow observations and modeled snowmelt processes. In this study, the land surface model, the Community Land Model (CLM), is used within the Land Information System (LIS) modeling framework to show how such biases impact the assimilation of MODIS snow cover observations. Alternative in-situ and satellite-based observations are used to help guide the CLM LSM in better predicting snowpack conditions and more realistic timing of snowmelt for a western US mountainous region. Also, MODIS snow cover observation biases will be discussed, and validation results will be provided. The issues faced with inserting or assimilating MODIS snow cover at moderate spatial resolutions (like 1km or less) will be addressed, and the impacts on CLM will be presented.

A Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Data Assimilation Method Tailored to the Inner Radiation Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guild, T. B.; O'Brien, T. P., III; Mazur, J. E.

2014-12-01

The Earth's radiation belts are composed of energetic protons and electrons whose fluxes span many orders of magnitude, whose distributions are log-normal, and where data-model differences can be large and also log-normal. This physical system thus challenges standard data assimilation methods relying on underlying assumptions of Gaussian distributions of measurements and data-model differences, where innovations to the model are small. We have therefore developed a data assimilation method tailored to these properties of the inner radiation belt, analogous to the ensemble Kalman filter but for the unique cases of non-Gaussian model and measurement errors, and non-linear model and measurement distributions. We apply this method to the inner radiation belt proton populations, using the SIZM inner belt model [Selesnick et al., 2007] and SAMPEX/PET and HEO proton observations to select the most likely ensemble members contributing to the state of the inner belt. We will describe the algorithm, the method of generating ensemble members, our choice of minimizing the difference between instrument counts not phase space densities, and demonstrate the method with our reanalysis of the inner radiation belt throughout solar cycle 23. We will report on progress to continue our assimilation into solar cycle 24 using the Van Allen Probes/RPS observations.

Can we reliably estimate managed forest carbon dynamics using remotely sensed data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallman, Thomas Luke; Exbrayat, Jean-Francois; Bloom, A. Anthony; Williams, Mathew

2015-04-01

Forests are an important part of the global carbon cycle, serving as both a large store of carbon and currently as a net sink of CO2. Forest biomass varies significantly in time and space, linked to climate, soils, natural disturbance and human impacts. This variation means that the global distribution of forest biomass and their dynamics are poorly quantified. Terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) are rarely evaluated for their predictions of forest carbon stocks and dynamics, due to a lack of knowledge on site specific factors such as disturbance dates and / or managed interventions. In this regard, managed forests present a valuable opportunity for model calibration and improvement. Spatially explicit datasets of planting dates, species and yield classification, in combination with remote sensing data and an appropriate data assimilation (DA) framework can reduce prediction uncertainty and error. We use a Baysian approach to calibrate the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using a Metropolis Hastings-Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MH-MCMC) framework. Forest management information is incorporated into the data assimilation framework as part of ecological and dynamic constraints (EDCs). The key advantage here is that DALEC simulates a full carbon balance, not just the living biomass, and that both parameter and prediction uncertainties are estimated as part of the DA analysis. DALEC has been calibrated at two managed forests, in the USA (Pinus taeda; Duke Forest) and UK (Picea sitchensis; Griffin Forest). At each site DALEC is calibrated twice (exp1 & exp2). Both calibrations (exp1 & exp2) assimilated MODIS LAI and HWSD estimates of soil carbon stored in soil organic matter, in addition to common management information and prior knowledge included in parameter priors and the EDCs. Calibration exp1 also utilises multiple site level estimates of carbon storage in multiple pools. By comparing simulations we determine the impact of site-level observations on uncertainty and error on predictions, and which observations are key to constraining ecosystem processes. Preliminary simulations indicate that DALEC calibration exp1 accurately simulated the assimilated observations for forest and soil carbon stock estimates including, critically for forestry, standing wood stocks (R2 = 0.92, bias = -4.46 MgC ha-1, RMSE = 5.80 MgC ha-1). The results from exp1 indicate the model is able to find parameters that are both consistent with EDC and observations. In the absence of site-level stock observations (exp2) DALEC accurately estimates foliage and fine root pools, while the median estimate of above ground litter and wood stocks (R2 = 0.92, bias = -48.30 MgC ha-1, RMSE = 50.30 MgC ha-1) are over- and underestimated respectively, site-level observations are within model uncertainty. These results indicate that we can estimate managed forests dynamics using remotely sensed data, particularly as remotely sensed above ground biomass maps become available to provide constraint to correct biases in woody accumulation.

Effects of 4D-Var data assimilation using remote sensing precipitation products in a WRF over the complex Heihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Xiaoduo; Li, Xin; Cheng, Guodong

2017-04-01

Traditionally, ground-based, in situ observations, remote sensing, and regional climate modeling, individually, cannot provide the high-quality precipitation data required for hydrological prediction, especially over complex terrain. Data assimilation techniques are often used to assimilate ground observations and remote sensing products into models for dynamic downscaling. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assimilate two satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 and FY-2D) using the 4D-Var data assimilation method. The results show that the assimilation of remote sensing precipitation products can improve the initial WRF fields of humidity and temperature, thereby improving precipitation forecasting and decreasing the spin-up time. Hence, assimilating TRMM and FY-2D remote sensing precipitation products using WRF 4D-Var can be viewed as a positive step toward improving the accuracy and lead time of numerical weather prediction models, particularly for short-term weather forecasting. Future work is proposed to assimilate a suite of remote sensing data, e.g., the combination of precipitation and soil moisture data, into a WRF model to improve 7-8 day forecasts of precipitation and other atmospheric variables.

Mathematical foundations of hybrid data assimilation from a synchronization perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penny, Stephen G.

2017-12-01

The state-of-the-art data assimilation methods used today in operational weather prediction centers around the world can be classified as generalized one-way coupled impulsive synchronization. This classification permits the investigation of hybrid data assimilation methods, which combine dynamic error estimates of the system state with long time-averaged (climatological) error estimates, from a synchronization perspective. Illustrative results show how dynamically informed formulations of the coupling matrix (via an Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF) can lead to synchronization when observing networks are sparse and how hybrid methods can lead to synchronization when those dynamic formulations are inadequate (due to small ensemble sizes). A large-scale application with a global ocean general circulation model is also presented. Results indicate that the hybrid methods also have useful applications in generalized synchronization, in particular, for correcting systematic model errors.

Mathematical foundations of hybrid data assimilation from a synchronization perspective.

PubMed

Penny, Stephen G

2017-12-01

The state-of-the-art data assimilation methods used today in operational weather prediction centers around the world can be classified as generalized one-way coupled impulsive synchronization. This classification permits the investigation of hybrid data assimilation methods, which combine dynamic error estimates of the system state with long time-averaged (climatological) error estimates, from a synchronization perspective. Illustrative results show how dynamically informed formulations of the coupling matrix (via an Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF) can lead to synchronization when observing networks are sparse and how hybrid methods can lead to synchronization when those dynamic formulations are inadequate (due to small ensemble sizes). A large-scale application with a global ocean general circulation model is also presented. Results indicate that the hybrid methods also have useful applications in generalized synchronization, in particular, for correcting systematic model errors.

Lessons from a low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model and applications to a high-dimensional chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haussaire, Jean-Matthieu; Bocquet, Marc

2016-04-01

Atmospheric chemistry models are becoming increasingly complex, with multiphasic chemistry, size-resolved particulate matter, and possibly coupled to numerical weather prediction models. In the meantime, data assimilation methods have also become more sophisticated. Hence, it will become increasingly difficult to disentangle the merits of data assimilation schemes, of models, and of their numerical implementation in a successful high-dimensional data assimilation study. That is why we believe that the increasing variety of problems encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry data assimilation puts forward the need for simple low-order models, albeit complex enough to capture the relevant dynamics, physics and chemistry that could impact the performance of data assimilation schemes. Following this analysis, we developped a low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model named L95-GRS [1]. The advective wind is simulated by the Lorenz-95 model, while the chemistry is made of 6 reactive species and simulates ozone concentrations. With this model, we carried out data assimilation experiments to estimate the state of the system as well as the forcing parameter of the wind and the emissions of chemical compounds. This model proved to be a powerful playground giving insights on the hardships of online and offline estimation of atmospheric pollution. Building on the results on this low-order model, we test advanced data assimilation methods on a state-of-the-art chemical transport model to check if the conclusions obtained with our low-order model still stand. References [1] Haussaire, J.-M. and Bocquet, M.: A low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model for testing online and offline data assimilation schemes, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 7347-7394, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-7347-2015, 2015.

Scalable and balanced dynamic hybrid data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauranne, Tuomo; Amour, Idrissa; Gunia, Martin; Kallio, Kari; Lepistö, Ahti; Koponen, Sampsa

2017-04-01

Scalability of complex weather forecasting suites is dependent on the technical tools available for implementing highly parallel computational kernels, but to an equally large extent also on the dependence patterns between various components of the suite, such as observation processing, data assimilation and the forecast model. Scalability is a particular challenge for 4D variational assimilation methods that necessarily couple the forecast model into the assimilation process and subject this combination to an inherently serial quasi-Newton minimization process. Ensemble based assimilation methods are naturally more parallel, but large models force ensemble sizes to be small and that results in poor assimilation accuracy, somewhat akin to shooting with a shotgun in a million-dimensional space. The Variational Ensemble Kalman Filter (VEnKF) is an ensemble method that can attain the accuracy of 4D variational data assimilation with a small ensemble size. It achieves this by processing a Gaussian approximation of the current error covariance distribution, instead of a set of ensemble members, analogously to the Extended Kalman Filter EKF. Ensemble members are re-sampled every time a new set of observations is processed from a new approximation of that Gaussian distribution which makes VEnKF a dynamic assimilation method. After this a smoothing step is applied that turns VEnKF into a dynamic Variational Ensemble Kalman Smoother VEnKS. In this smoothing step, the same process is iterated with frequent re-sampling of the ensemble but now using past iterations as surrogate observations until the end result is a smooth and balanced model trajectory. In principle, VEnKF could suffer from similar scalability issues as 4D-Var. However, this can be avoided by isolating the forecast model completely from the minimization process by implementing the latter as a wrapper code whose only link to the model is calling for many parallel and totally independent model runs, all of them implemented as parallel model runs themselves. The only bottleneck in the process is the gathering and scattering of initial and final model state snapshots before and after the parallel runs which requires a very efficient and low-latency communication network. However, the volume of data communicated is small and the intervening minimization steps are only 3D-Var, which means their computational load is negligible compared with the fully parallel model runs. We present example results of scalable VEnKF with the 4D lake and shallow sea model COHERENS, assimilating simultaneously continuous in situ measurements in a single point and infrequent satellite images that cover a whole lake, with the fully scalable VEnKF.

You are not always what we think you eat. Selective assimilation across multiple whole-stream isotopic tracer studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dodds, W. K.; Collins, S. M.; Hamilton, S. K.

Analyses of 21 15N stable isotope tracer experiments, designed to examine food web dynamics in streams around the world, indicated that the isotopic composition of food resources assimilated by primary consumers (mostly invertebrates) poorly reflected the presumed food sources. Modeling indicated that consumers assimilated only 33–50% of the N available in sampled food sources such as decomposing leaves, epilithon, and fine particulate detritus over feeding periods of weeks or more. Thus, common methods of sampling food sources consumed by animals in streams do not sufficiently reflect the pool of N they assimilate. Lastly, Isotope tracer studies, combined with modeling andmore » food separation techniques, can improve estimation of N pools in food sources that are assimilated by consumers.« less

You are not always what we think you eat. Selective assimilation across multiple whole-stream isotopic tracer studies

DOE PAGES

Dodds, W. K.; Collins, S. M.; Hamilton, S. K.; ...

2014-10-01

Analyses of 21 15N stable isotope tracer experiments, designed to examine food web dynamics in streams around the world, indicated that the isotopic composition of food resources assimilated by primary consumers (mostly invertebrates) poorly reflected the presumed food sources. Modeling indicated that consumers assimilated only 33–50% of the N available in sampled food sources such as decomposing leaves, epilithon, and fine particulate detritus over feeding periods of weeks or more. Thus, common methods of sampling food sources consumed by animals in streams do not sufficiently reflect the pool of N they assimilate. Lastly, Isotope tracer studies, combined with modeling andmore » food separation techniques, can improve estimation of N pools in food sources that are assimilated by consumers.« less

Variational fine-grained data assimilation schemes for atmospheric chemistry transport and transformation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penenko, Alexey; Penenko, Vladimir; Tsvetova, Elena

2015-04-01

The paper concerns data assimilation problem for an atmospheric chemistry transport and transformation models. Data assimilation is carried out within variation approach on a single time step of the approximated model. A control function is introduced into the model source term (emission rate) to provide flexibility to adjust to data. This function is evaluated as the minimum of the target functional combining control function norm to a misfit between measured and model-simulated analog of data. This provides a flow-dependent and physically-plausible structure of the resulting analysis and reduces the need to calculate model error covariance matrices that are sought within conventional approach to data assimilation. Extension of the atmospheric transport model with a chemical transformations module influences data assimilation algorithms performance. This influence is investigated with numerical experiments for different meteorological conditions altering convection-diffusion processes characteristics, namely strong, medium and low wind conditions. To study the impact of transformation and data assimilation, we compare results for a convection-diffusion model (without data assimilation), convection-diffusion with assimilation, convection-diffusion-reaction (without data assimilation) and convection-diffusion-reaction-assimilation models. Both high dimensionalities of the atmospheric chemistry models and a real-time mode of operation demand for computational efficiency of the algorithms. Computational issues with complicated models can be solved by using a splitting technique. As the result a model is presented as a set of relatively independent simple models equipped with a kind of coupling procedure. With regard to data assimilation two approaches can be identified. In a fine-grained approach data assimilation is carried out on the separate splitting stages [1,2] independently on shared measurement data. The same situation arises when constructing a hybrid model out of two models each having its own assimilation scheme. In integrated schemes data assimilation is carried out with respect to the split model as a whole. First approach is more efficient from computational point of view, for in some important cases it can be implemented without iterations [2]. Its shortcoming is that control functions in different part of the model are adjusted independently thus having less evident physical sense. With the aid of numerical experiments we compare the two approaches. Work has been partially supported by COST Action ES1004 STSM Grants #16817 and #21654, RFBR 14-01-31482 mol a and 14-01-00125, Programmes # 4 Presidium RAS and # 3 MSD RAS, integration projects SB RAS #8 and #35. References: [1] V. V. Penenko Variational methods of data assimilation and inverse problems for studying the atmosphere, ocean, and environment Num. Anal. and Appl., 2009 V 2 No 4, 341-351. [2] A.V. Penenko and V.V. Penenko. Direct data assimilation method for convection-diffusion models based on splitting scheme. Computational technologies, 19(4):69-83, 2014.

Towards Improved Snow Water Equivalent Estimation via GRACE Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forman, Bart; Reichle, Rofl; Rodell, Matt

2011-01-01

Passive microwave (e.g. AMSR-E) and visible spectrum (e.g. MODIS) measurements of snow states have been used in conjunction with land surface models to better characterize snow pack states, most notably snow water equivalent (SWE). However, both types of measurements have limitations. AMSR-E, for example, suffers a loss of information in deep/wet snow packs. Similarly, MODIS suffers a loss of temporal correlation information beyond the initial accumulation and final ablation phases of the snow season. Gravimetric measurements, on the other hand, do not suffer from these limitations. In this study, gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used in a land surface model data assimilation (DA) framework to better characterize SWE in the Mackenzie River basin located in northern Canada. Comparisons are made against independent, ground-based SWE observations, state-of-the-art modeled SWE estimates, and independent, ground-based river discharge observations. Preliminary results suggest improved SWE estimates, including improved timing of the subsequent ablation and runoff of the snow pack. Additionally, use of the DA procedure can add vertical and horizontal resolution to the coarse-scale GRACE measurements as well as effectively downscale the measurements in time. Such findings offer the potential for better understanding of the hydrologic cycle in snow-dominated basins located in remote regions of the globe where ground-based observation collection if difficult, if not impossible. This information could ultimately lead to improved freshwater resource management in communities dependent on snow melt as well as a reduction in the uncertainty of river discharge into the Arctic Ocean.

Enhancing the USDA Global Crop Assessment Decision Support System Using SMAP Soil Moisture Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolten, J. D.; Mladenova, I. E.; Crow, W. T.; Reynolds, C. A.

2016-12-01

The Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) is a subdivision of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) that is in charge with providing information on current and expected crop supply and demand estimates. Knowledge of the amount of water in the root zone is an essential source of information for the crop analysts as it governs the crop development and crop growth, which in turn determine the end-of-season yields. USDA FAS currently relies on root zone soil moisture (RZSM) estimates generated using the modified two-layer Palmer Model (PM). PM is a simple water-balance hydrologic model that is driven by daily precipitation observations and minimum and maximum temperature data. These forcing data are based on ground meteorological station measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and gridded weather data from the former U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), currently called U.S. Air Force 557th Weather Wing. The PM was extended by adding a data assimilation (DA) unit that provides the opportunity to routinely ingest satellite-based soil moisture observations. This allows us to adjust for precipitation-related inaccuracies and enhance the quality of the PM soil moisture estimates. The current operational DA system is based on a 1-D Ensample Kalman Filter approach and relies on observations obtained from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity Mission (SMOS). Our talk will demonstrate the value of assimilating two satellite products (i.e. a passive and active) and discuss work that is done in preparation for ingesting soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission.

Yeast identification: reassessment of assimilation tests as sole universal identifiers.

PubMed

Spencer, J; Rawling, S; Stratford, M; Steels, H; Novodvorska, M; Archer, D B; Chandra, S

2011-11-01

To assess whether assimilation tests in isolation remain a valid method of identification of yeasts, when applied to a wide range of environmental and spoilage isolates. Seventy-one yeast strains were isolated from a soft drinks factory. These were identified using assimilation tests and by D1/D2 rDNA sequencing. When compared to sequencing, assimilation test identifications (MicroLog™) were 18·3% correct, a further 14·1% correct within the genus and 67·6% were incorrectly identified. The majority of the latter could be attributed to the rise in newly reported yeast species. Assimilation tests alone are unreliable as a universal means of yeast identification, because of numerous new species, variability of strains and increasing coincidence of assimilation profiles. Assimilation tests still have a useful role in the identification of common species, such as the majority of clinical isolates. It is probable, based on these results, that many yeast identifications reported in older literature are incorrect. This emphasizes the crucial need for accurate identification in present and future publications. © 2011 The Authors. Letters in Applied Microbiology © 2011 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

The Failure to Construct Proof Based on Assimilation and Accommodation Framework from Piaget

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Netti, Syukma; Nusantara, Toto; Subanji; Abadyo; Anwar, Lathiful

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe the process of a proof construction. It is more specific on the failure of the process. Piaget's frameworks, assimilation and accommodation, were used to analyze it. Method of this research was qualitative method. Data were collected by asking five students working on problems of proof using think aloud…

Application of the Newtonian nudging data assimilation method for the Biebrza River flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miroslaw-Swiatek, Dorota

2010-05-01

Data assimilation provides a tool for integrating observations of spatially distributed environmental variables with model predictions. In this paper a simple data assimilation technique, the Newtonian nudging to individual observations method, has been implemented in the 1D St. Venant equations. The method involves adding a term to the prognostic equation. This term is proportional to the difference between the value calculated in the model at a given point in time and space and the one resulted from observations. Improving the model with available measurement observations is accomplished by adequate weighting functions, that can incorporate prior knowledge about the spatial and temporal variability of the state variables being assimilated. The article contains a description of the numerical model, which employs the finite element method (FEM) to solve the 1D St. Venant equations modified by the ‘nudging' method. The developed model was applied to the Biebrza River, situated in the north-eastern part of Poland, flowing through the last extensive, fairly undisturbed river-marginal peatland in Europe. A 41 km long reach of the Lower Biebrza River described by 68 cross-sections was selected for the study. The observed water stage collected by automatic sensors was the subject of the data assimilation in the Newtonian nudging to individual observations method. The water level observation data were collected in four observation points along a river with time interval 6 hours for one year. The obtained results show a prediction with no nudging and influence of the nudging term on water stages forecast. The developed model enables integrating water stage observation with an unsteady river flow model for improved water level prediction.

An Extended Kalman Filter to Assimilate Altimetric Data into a Non-Linear Model of the Tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gourdeau, L.; Verron, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Busalacchi, A. J.

1997-01-01

A new implementation of the extended Kaman filter is developed for the purpose of assimilating altimetric observations into a primitive equation model of the tropical Pacific. Its specificity consists in defining the errors into a reduced basis that evolves in time with the model dynamic. Validation by twin experiments is conducted and the method is shown to be efficient in quasi real conditions. Data from the first 2 years of the Topex/Poseidon mission are assimilated into the Gent & Cane [1989] model. Assimilation results are evaluated against independent in situ data, namely TAO mooring observations.

Ensemble-based assimilation of fractional snow-covered area satellite retrievals to estimate the snow distribution at Arctic sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalstad, Kristoffer; Westermann, Sebastian; Vikhamar Schuler, Thomas; Boike, Julia; Bertino, Laurent

2018-01-01

With its high albedo, low thermal conductivity and large water storing capacity, snow strongly modulates the surface energy and water balance, which makes it a critical factor in mid- to high-latitude and mountain environments. However, estimating the snow water equivalent (SWE) is challenging in remote-sensing applications already at medium spatial resolutions of 1 km. We present an ensemble-based data assimilation framework that estimates the peak subgrid SWE distribution (SSD) at the 1 km scale by assimilating fractional snow-covered area (fSCA) satellite retrievals in a simple snow model forced by downscaled reanalysis data. The basic idea is to relate the timing of the snow cover depletion (accessible from satellite products) to the peak SSD. Peak subgrid SWE is assumed to be lognormally distributed, which can be translated to a modeled time series of fSCA through the snow model. Assimilation of satellite-derived fSCA facilitates the estimation of the peak SSD, while taking into account uncertainties in both the model and the assimilated data sets. As an extension to previous studies, our method makes use of the novel (to snow data assimilation) ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA) scheme combined with analytical Gaussian anamorphosis to assimilate time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Sentinel-2 fSCA retrievals. The scheme is applied to Arctic sites near Ny-Ålesund (79° N, Svalbard, Norway) where field measurements of fSCA and SWE distributions are available. The method is able to successfully recover accurate estimates of peak SSD on most of the occasions considered. Through the ES-MDA assimilation, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) for the fSCA, peak mean SWE and peak subgrid coefficient of variation is improved by around 75, 60 and 20 %, respectively, when compared to the prior, yielding RMSEs of 0.01, 0.09 m water equivalent (w.e.) and 0.13, respectively. The ES-MDA either outperforms or at least nearly matches the performance of other ensemble-based batch smoother schemes with regards to various evaluation metrics. Given the modularity of the method, it could prove valuable for a range of satellite-era hydrometeorological reanalyses.

Joint Assimilation of SMOS Brightness Temperature and GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations for Improved Soil Moisture Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girotto, Manuela; Reichle, Rolf H.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Rodell, Matthew

2017-01-01

Observations from recent soil moisture missions (e.g. SMOS) have been used in innovative data assimilation studies to provide global high spatial (i.e. 40 km) and temporal resolution (i.e. 3-days) soil moisture profile estimates from microwave brightness temperature observations. In contrast with microwave-based satellite missions that are only sensitive to near-surface soil moisture (0 - 5 cm), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides accurate measurements of the entire vertically integrated terrestrial water storage column but, it is characterized by low spatial (i.e. 150,000 km2) and temporal (i.e. monthly) resolutions. Data assimilation studies have shown that GRACE-TWS primarily affects (in absolute terms) deeper moisture storages (i.e., groundwater). This work hypothesizes that unprecedented soil water profile accuracy can be obtained through the joint assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage and SMOS brightness temperature observations. A particular challenge of the joint assimilation is the use of the two different types of measurements that are relevant for hydrologic processes representing different temporal and spatial scales. The performance of the joint assimilation strongly depends on the chosen assimilation methods, measurement and model error spatial structures. The optimization of the assimilation technique constitutes a fundamental step toward a multi-variate multi-resolution integrative assimilation system aiming to improve our understanding of the global terrestrial water cycle.

Joint assimilation of SMOS brightness temperature and GRACE terrestrial water storage observations for improved soil moisture estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girotto, M.; Reichle, R. H.; De Lannoy, G.; Rodell, M.

2017-12-01

Observations from recent soil moisture missions (e.g. SMOS) have been used in innovative data assimilation studies to provide global high spatial (i.e. 40 km) and temporal resolution (i.e. 3-days) soil moisture profile estimates from microwave brightness temperature observations. In contrast with microwave-based satellite missions that are only sensitive to near-surface soil moisture (0-5 cm), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides accurate measurements of the entire vertically integrated terrestrial water storage column but, it is characterized by low spatial (i.e. 150,000 km2) and temporal (i.e. monthly) resolutions. Data assimilation studies have shown that GRACE-TWS primarily affects (in absolute terms) deeper moisture storages (i.e., groundwater). This work hypothesizes that unprecedented soil water profile accuracy can be obtained through the joint assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage and SMOS brightness temperature observations. A particular challenge of the joint assimilation is the use of the two different types of measurements that are relevant for hydrologic processes representing different temporal and spatial scales. The performance of the joint assimilation strongly depends on the chosen assimilation methods, measurement and model error spatial structures. The optimization of the assimilation technique constitutes a fundamental step toward a multi-variate multi-resolution integrative assimilation system aiming to improve our understanding of the global terrestrial water cycle.

Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-09-01

Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

Assimilating Eulerian and Lagrangian data in traffic-flow models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Chao; Cochrane, Courtney; DeGuire, Joseph; Fan, Gaoyang; Holmes, Emma; McGuirl, Melissa; Murphy, Patrick; Palmer, Jenna; Carter, Paul; Slivinski, Laura; Sandstede, Björn

2017-05-01

Data assimilation of traffic flow remains a challenging problem. One difficulty is that data come from different sources ranging from stationary sensors and camera data to GPS and cell phone data from moving cars. Sensors and cameras give information about traffic density, while GPS data provide information about the positions and velocities of individual cars. Previous methods for assimilating Lagrangian data collected from individual cars relied on specific properties of the underlying computational model or its reformulation in Lagrangian coordinates. These approaches make it hard to assimilate both Eulerian density and Lagrangian positional data simultaneously. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach that allows us to assimilate both Eulerian and Lagrangian data. We show that the proposed algorithm is accurate and works well in different traffic scenarios and regardless of whether ensemble Kalman or particle filters are used. We also show that the algorithm is capable of estimating parameters and assimilating real traffic observations and synthetic observations obtained from microscopic models.

Biomass burning source characterization requirements in air quality models with and without data assimilation: challenges and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyer, E. J.; Zhang, J. L.; Reid, J. S.; Curtis, C. A.; Westphal, D. L.

2007-12-01

Quantitative models of the transport and evolution of atmospheric pollution have graduated from the laboratory to become a part of the operational activity of forecast centers. Scientists studying the composition and variability of the atmosphere put great efforts into developing methods for accurately specifying sources of pollution, including natural and anthropogenic biomass burning. These methods must be adapted for use in operational contexts, which impose additional strictures on input data and methods. First, only input data sources available in near real-time are suitable for use in operational applications. Second, operational applications must make use of redundant data sources whenever possible. This is a shift in philosophy: in a research context, the most accurate and complete data set will be used, whereas in an operational context, the system must be designed with maximum redundancy. The goal in an operational context is to produce, to the extent possible, consistent and timely output, given sometimes inconsistent inputs. The Naval Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS), a global operational aerosol analysis and forecast system, recently began incorporating assimilation of satellite-derived aerosol optical depth. Assimilation of satellite AOD retrievals has dramatically improved aerosol analyses and forecasts from this system. The use of aerosol data assimilation also changes the strategy for improving the smoke source function. The absolute magnitude of emissions events can be refined through feedback from the data assimilation system, both in real- time operations and in post-processing analysis of data assimilation results. In terms of the aerosol source functions, the largest gains in model performance are now to be gained by reducing data latency and minimizing missed detections. In this presentation, recent model development work on the Fire Locating and Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) system that provides smoke aerosol boundary conditions for NAAPS is described, including redundant integration of multiple satellite platforms and development of feedback loops between the data assimilation system and smoke source.

The Role of Scale and Model Bias in ADAPT's Photospheric Eatimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Godinez Vazquez, Humberto C.; Hickmann, Kyle Scott; Arge, Charles Nicholas

2015-05-20

The Air Force Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport model (ADAPT), is a magnetic flux propagation based on Worden-Harvey (WH) model. ADAPT would be used to provide a global photospheric map of the Earth. A data assimilation method based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), a method of Monte Carlo approximation tied with Kalman filtering, is used in calculating the ADAPT models.

Ensemble kalman filtering to perform data assimilation with soil water content probes and pedotransfer functions in modeling water flow in variably saturated soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Data from modern soil water contents probes can be used for data assimilation in soil water flow modeling, i.e. continual correction of the flow model performance based on observations. The ensemble Kalman filter appears to be an appropriate method for that. The method requires estimates of the unce...

Chemical Source Inversion using Assimilated Constituent Observations in an Idealized Two-dimensional System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tangborn, Andrew; Cooper, Robert; Pawson, Steven; Sun, Zhibin

2009-01-01

We present a source inversion technique for chemical constituents that uses assimilated constituent observations rather than directly using the observations. The method is tested with a simple model problem, which is a two-dimensional Fourier-Galerkin transport model combined with a Kalman filter for data assimilation. Inversion is carried out using a Green's function method and observations are simulated from a true state with added Gaussian noise. The forecast state uses the same spectral spectral model, but differs by an unbiased Gaussian model error, and emissions models with constant errors. The numerical experiments employ both simulated in situ and satellite observation networks. Source inversion was carried out by either direct use of synthetically generated observations with added noise, or by first assimilating the observations and using the analyses to extract observations. We have conducted 20 identical twin experiments for each set of source and observation configurations, and find that in the limiting cases of a very few localized observations, or an extremely large observation network there is little advantage to carrying out assimilation first. However, in intermediate observation densities, there decreases in source inversion error standard deviation using the Kalman filter algorithm followed by Green's function inversion by 50% to 95%.

DasPy – Open Source Multivariate Land Data Assimilation Framework with High Performance Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xujun; Li, Xin; Montzka, Carsten; Kollet, Stefan; Vereecken, Harry; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan

2015-04-01

Data assimilation has become a popular method to integrate observations from multiple sources with land surface models to improve predictions of the water and energy cycles of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. In recent years, several land data assimilation systems have been developed in different research agencies. Because of the software availability or adaptability, these systems are not easy to apply for the purpose of multivariate land data assimilation research. Multivariate data assimilation refers to the simultaneous assimilation of observation data for multiple model state variables into a simulation model. Our main motivation was to develop an open source multivariate land data assimilation framework (DasPy) which is implemented using the Python script language mixed with C++ and Fortran language. This system has been evaluated in several soil moisture, L-band brightness temperature and land surface temperature assimilation studies. The implementation allows also parameter estimation (soil properties and/or leaf area index) on the basis of the joint state and parameter estimation approach. LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) is implemented as the main data assimilation algorithm, and uncertainties in the data assimilation can be represented by perturbed atmospheric forcings, perturbed soil and vegetation properties and model initial conditions. The CLM4.5 (Community Land Model) was integrated as the model operator. The CMEM (Community Microwave Emission Modelling Platform), COSMIC (COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Interaction Code) and the two source formulation were integrated as observation operators for assimilation of L-band passive microwave, cosmic-ray soil moisture probe and land surface temperature measurements, respectively. DasPy is parallelized using the hybrid MPI (Message Passing Interface) and OpenMP (Open Multi-Processing) techniques. All the input and output data flow is organized efficiently using the commonly used NetCDF file format. Online 1D and 2D visualization of data assimilation results is also implemented to facilitate the post simulation analysis. In summary, DasPy is a ready to use open source parallel multivariate land data assimilation framework.

Bayesian Modeling of the Assimilative Capacity Component of Stream Nutrient Export

EPA Science Inventory

Implementing stream restoration techniques and best management practices to reduce nonpoint source nutrients implies enhancement of the assimilative capacity for the stream system. In this paper, a Bayesian method for evaluating this component of a TMDL load capacity is developed...

Analysis of the hydrological response of a distributed physically-based model using post-assimilation (EnKF) diagnostics of streamflow and in situ soil moisture observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trudel, Mélanie; Leconte, Robert; Paniconi, Claudio

2014-06-01

Data assimilation techniques not only enhance model simulations and forecast, they also provide the opportunity to obtain a diagnostic of both the model and observations used in the assimilation process. In this research, an ensemble Kalman filter was used to assimilate streamflow observations at a basin outlet and at interior locations, as well as soil moisture at two different depths (15 and 45 cm). The simulation model is the distributed physically-based hydrological model CATHY (CATchment HYdrology) and the study site is the Des Anglais watershed, a 690 km2 river basin located in southern Quebec, Canada. Use of Latin hypercube sampling instead of a conventional Monte Carlo method to generate the ensemble reduced the size of the ensemble, and therefore the calculation time. Different post-assimilation diagnostics, based on innovations (observation minus background), analysis residuals (observation minus analysis), and analysis increments (analysis minus background), were used to evaluate assimilation optimality. An important issue in data assimilation is the estimation of error covariance matrices. These diagnostics were also used in a calibration exercise to determine the standard deviation of model parameters, forcing data, and observations that led to optimal assimilations. The analysis of innovations showed a lag between the model forecast and the observation during rainfall events. Assimilation of streamflow observations corrected this discrepancy. Assimilation of outlet streamflow observations improved the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) between the model forecast (one day) and the observation at both outlet and interior point locations, owing to the structure of the state vector used. However, assimilation of streamflow observations systematically increased the simulated soil moisture values.

Using optimal interpolation to assimilate surface measurements and satellite AOD for ozone and PM2.5: A case study for July 2011.

PubMed

Tang, Youhua; Chai, Tianfeng; Pan, Li; Lee, Pius; Tong, Daniel; Kim, Hyun-Cheol; Chen, Weiwei

2015-10-01

We employed an optimal interpolation (OI) method to assimilate AIRNow ozone/PM2.5 and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data into the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to improve the ozone and total aerosol concentration for the CMAQ simulation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). AIRNow data assimilation was applied to the boundary layer, and MODIS AOD data were used to adjust total column aerosol. Four OI cases were designed to examine the effects of uncertainty setting and assimilation time; two of these cases used uncertainties that varied in time and location, or "dynamic uncertainties." More frequent assimilation and higher model uncertainties pushed the modeled results closer to the observation. Our comparison over a 24-hr period showed that ozone and PM2.5 mean biases could be reduced from 2.54 ppbV to 1.06 ppbV and from -7.14 µg/m³ to -0.11 µg/m³, respectively, over CONUS, while their correlations were also improved. Comparison to DISCOVER-AQ 2011 aircraft measurement showed that surface ozone assimilation applied to the CMAQ simulation improves regional low-altitude (below 2 km) ozone simulation. This paper described an application of using optimal interpolation method to improve the model's ozone and PM2.5 estimation using surface measurement and satellite AOD. It highlights the usage of the operational AIRNow data set, which is available in near real time, and the MODIS AOD. With a similar method, we can also use other satellite products, such as the latest VIIRS products, to improve PM2.5 prediction.

A variational data assimilation system for the range dependent acoustic model using the representer method: Theoretical derivations.

PubMed

Ngodock, Hans; Carrier, Matthew; Fabre, Josette; Zingarelli, Robert; Souopgui, Innocent

2017-07-01

This study presents the theoretical framework for variational data assimilation of acoustic pressure observations into an acoustic propagation model, namely, the range dependent acoustic model (RAM). RAM uses the split-step Padé algorithm to solve the parabolic equation. The assimilation consists of minimizing a weighted least squares cost function that includes discrepancies between the model solution and the observations. The minimization process, which uses the principle of variations, requires the derivation of the tangent linear and adjoint models of the RAM. The mathematical derivations are presented here, and, for the sake of brevity, a companion study presents the numerical implementation and results from the assimilation simulated acoustic pressure observations.

Detecting Non-Gaussian and Lognormal Characteristics of Temperature and Water Vapor Mixing Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kliewer, A.; Fletcher, S. J.; Jones, A. S.; Forsythe, J. M.

2017-12-01

Many operational data assimilation and retrieval systems assume that the errors and variables come from a Gaussian distribution. This study builds upon previous results that shows that positive definite variables, specifically water vapor mixing ratio and temperature, can follow a non-Gaussian distribution and moreover a lognormal distribution. Previously, statistical testing procedures which included the Jarque-Bera test, the Shapiro-Wilk test, the Chi-squared goodness-of-fit test, and a composite test which incorporated the results of the former tests were employed to determine locations and time spans where atmospheric variables assume a non-Gaussian distribution. These tests are now investigated in a "sliding window" fashion in order to extend the testing procedure to near real-time. The analyzed 1-degree resolution data comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Forecast System (GFS) six hour forecast from the 0Z analysis. These results indicate the necessity of a Data Assimilation (DA) system to be able to properly use the lognormally-distributed variables in an appropriate Bayesian analysis that does not assume the variables are Gaussian.

Estimation of Turbulent Heat Fluxes by Assimilation of Land Surface Temperature Observations From GOES Satellites Into an Ensemble Kalman Smoother Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Tongren; Bateni, S. M.; Neale, C. M. U.; Auligne, T.; Liu, Shaomin

2018-03-01

In different studies, land surface temperature (LST) observations have been assimilated into the variational data assimilation (VDA) approaches to estimate turbulent heat fluxes. The VDA methods yield accurate turbulent heat fluxes, but they need an adjoint model, which is difficult to derive and code. They also cannot directly calculate the uncertainty of their estimates. To overcome the abovementioned drawbacks, this study assimilates LST data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite into the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) data assimilation system to estimate turbulent heat fluxes. EnKS does not need to derive the adjoint term and directly generates statistical information on the accuracy of its predictions. It uses the heat diffusion equation to simulate LST. EnKS with the state augmentation approach finds the optimal values for the unknown parameters (i.e., evaporative fraction and neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient, CHN) by minimizing the misfit between LST observations from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite and LST estimations from the heat diffusion equation. The augmented EnKS scheme is tested over six Ameriflux sites with a wide range of hydrological and vegetative conditions. The results show that EnKS can predict not only the model parameters and turbulent heat fluxes but also their uncertainties over a variety of land surface conditions. Compared to the variational method, EnKS yields suboptimal turbulent heat fluxes. However, suboptimality of EnKS is small, and its results are comparable to those of the VDA method. Overall, EnKS is a feasible and reliable method for estimation of turbulent heat fluxes.

Building occupancy simulation and data assimilation using a graph-based agent-oriented model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Sanish; Hu, Xiaolin

2018-07-01

Building occupancy simulation and estimation simulates the dynamics of occupants and estimates their real-time spatial distribution in a building. It requires a simulation model and an algorithm for data assimilation that assimilates real-time sensor data into the simulation model. Existing building occupancy simulation models include agent-based models and graph-based models. The agent-based models suffer high computation cost for simulating large numbers of occupants, and graph-based models overlook the heterogeneity and detailed behaviors of individuals. Recognizing the limitations of existing models, this paper presents a new graph-based agent-oriented model which can efficiently simulate large numbers of occupants in various kinds of building structures. To support real-time occupancy dynamics estimation, a data assimilation framework based on Sequential Monte Carlo Methods is also developed and applied to the graph-based agent-oriented model to assimilate real-time sensor data. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the developed model and the data assimilation framework. The major contributions of this work are to provide an efficient model for building occupancy simulation that can accommodate large numbers of occupants and an effective data assimilation framework that can provide real-time estimations of building occupancy from sensor data.

On the Direct Assimilation of Along-track Sea Surface Height Observations into a Free-surface Ocean Model Using a Weak Constraints Four Dimensional Variational (4dvar) Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngodock, H.; Carrier, M.; Smith, S. R.; Souopgui, I.; Martin, P.; Jacobs, G. A.

2016-02-01

The representer method is adopted for solving a weak constraints 4dvar problem for the assimilation of ocean observations including along-track SSH, using a free surface ocean model. Direct 4dvar assimilation of SSH observations along the satellite tracks requires that the adjoint model be integrated with Dirac impulses on the right hand side of the adjoint equations for the surface elevation equation. The solution of this adjoint model will inevitably include surface gravity waves, and it constitutes the forcing for the tangent linear model (TLM) according to the representer method. This yields an analysis that is contaminated by gravity waves. A method for avoiding the generation of the surface gravity waves in the analysis is proposed in this study; it consists of removing the adjoint of the free surface from the right hand side (rhs) of the free surface mode in the TLM. The information from the SSH observations will still propagate to all other variables via the adjoint of the balance relationship between the barotropic and baroclinic modes, resulting in the correction to the surface elevation. Two assimilation experiments are carried out in the Gulf of Mexico: one with adjoint forcing included on the rhs of the TLM free surface equation, and the other without. Both analyses are evaluated against the assimilated SSH observations, SSH maps from Aviso and independent surface drifters, showing that the analysis that did not include adjoint forcing in the free surface is more accurate. This study shows that when a weak constraint 4dvar approach is considered for the assimilation of along-track SSH observations using a free surface model, with the aim of correcting the mesoscale circulation, an independent model error should not be assigned to the free surface.

Continuous assimilation of simulated Geosat altimetric sea level into an eddy-resolving numerical ocean model. I - Sea level differences. II - Referenced sea level differences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Warren B.; Tai, Chang-Kou; Holland, William R.

1990-01-01

The optimal interpolation method of Lorenc (1981) was used to conduct continuous assimilation of altimetric sea level differences from the simulated Geosat exact repeat mission (ERM) into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic eddy-resolving numerical ocean box model that simulates the statistics of mesoscale eddy activity in the western North Pacific. Assimilation was conducted continuously as the Geosat tracks appeared in simulated real time/space, with each track repeating every 17 days, but occurring at different times and locations within the 17-day period, as would have occurred in a realistic nowcast situation. This interpolation method was also used to conduct the assimilation of referenced altimetric sea level differences into the same model, performing the referencing of altimetric sea sevel differences by using the simulated sea level. The results of this dynamical interpolation procedure are compared with those of a statistical (i.e., optimum) interpolation procedure.

Water Budget Estimation by Assimilating Multiple Observations and Hydrological Modeling Using Constrained Ensemble Kalman Filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, M.; Wood, E. F.

2004-05-01

This study explores a method to estimate various components of the water cycle (ET, runoff, land storage, etc.) based on a number of different info sources, including both observations and observation-enhanced model simulations. Different from existing data assimilations, this constrained Kalman filtering approach keeps the water budget perfectly closed while updating the states of the underlying model (VIC model) optimally using observations. Assimilating different data sources in this way has several advantages: (1) physical model is included to make estimation time series smooth, missing-free, and more physically consistent; (2) uncertainties in the model and observations are properly addressed; (3) model is constrained by observation thus to reduce model biases; (4) balance of water is always preserved along the assimilation. Experiments are carried out in Southern Great Plain region where necessary observations have been collected. This method may also be implemented in other applications with physical constraints (e.g. energy cycles) and at different scales.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 2: Sensitivity tests and results

PubMed Central

Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

2018-01-01

Part 1 of this series presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of global circulation model (GCM) sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud data, thereby permitting parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation for large-scale models. This article performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed reduce mean and standard deviation biases significantly with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud-top pressure and that it also improves the simulated rotational–Raman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows non-gradient-based jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast, where the background state has a clear swath. This article also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in passive-radiometer-retrieved cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification from Riishojgaard provides some help in this respect, by better honouring inversion structures in the background state. PMID:29618848

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-Resolution Cloud Observations. Part 2: Sensitivity Tests and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

2016-01-01

Part 1 of this series presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of global circulation model (GCM) sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud data, thereby permitting parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation for large-scale models. This article performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed reduce mean and standard deviation biases significantly with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud-top pressure and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Raman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows non-gradient-based jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast, where the background state has a clear swath. This article also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in passive-radiometer-retrieved cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification from Riishojgaard provides some help in this respect, by better honouring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 2: Sensitivity tests and results.

PubMed

Norris, Peter M; da Silva, Arlindo M

2016-07-01

Part 1 of this series presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of global circulation model (GCM) sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud data, thereby permitting parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation for large-scale models. This article performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed reduce mean and standard deviation biases significantly with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud-top pressure and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Raman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows non-gradient-based jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast, where the background state has a clear swath. This article also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in passive-radiometer-retrieved cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification from Riishojgaard provides some help in this respect, by better honouring inversion structures in the background state.

Multigrid solvers and multigrid preconditioners for the solution of variational data assimilation problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debreu, Laurent; Neveu, Emilie; Simon, Ehouarn; Le Dimet, Francois Xavier; Vidard, Arthur

2014-05-01

In order to lower the computational cost of the variational data assimilation process, we investigate the use of multigrid methods to solve the associated optimal control system. On a linear advection equation, we study the impact of the regularization term on the optimal control and the impact of discretization errors on the efficiency of the coarse grid correction step. We show that even if the optimal control problem leads to the solution of an elliptic system, numerical errors introduced by the discretization can alter the success of the multigrid methods. The view of the multigrid iteration as a preconditioner for a Krylov optimization method leads to a more robust algorithm. A scale dependent weighting of the multigrid preconditioner and the usual background error covariance matrix based preconditioner is proposed and brings significant improvements. [1] Laurent Debreu, Emilie Neveu, Ehouarn Simon, François-Xavier Le Dimet and Arthur Vidard, 2014: Multigrid solvers and multigrid preconditioners for the solution of variational data assimilation problems, submitted to QJRMS, http://hal.inria.fr/hal-00874643 [2] Emilie Neveu, Laurent Debreu and François-Xavier Le Dimet, 2011: Multigrid methods and data assimilation - Convergence study and first experiments on non-linear equations, ARIMA, 14, 63-80, http://intranet.inria.fr/international/arima/014/014005.html

Delineating Facies Spatial Distribution by Integrating Ensemble Data Assimilation and Indicator Geostatistics with Level Set Transformation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammond, Glenn Edward; Song, Xuehang; Ye, Ming

A new approach is developed to delineate the spatial distribution of discrete facies (geological units that have unique distributions of hydraulic, physical, and/or chemical properties) conditioned not only on direct data (measurements directly related to facies properties, e.g., grain size distribution obtained from borehole samples) but also on indirect data (observations indirectly related to facies distribution, e.g., hydraulic head and tracer concentration). Our method integrates for the first time ensemble data assimilation with traditional transition probability-based geostatistics. The concept of level set is introduced to build shape parameterization that allows transformation between discrete facies indicators and continuous random variables. Themore » spatial structure of different facies is simulated by indicator models using conditioning points selected adaptively during the iterative process of data assimilation. To evaluate the new method, a two-dimensional semi-synthetic example is designed to estimate the spatial distribution and permeability of two distinct facies from transient head data induced by pumping tests. The example demonstrates that our new method adequately captures the spatial pattern of facies distribution by imposing spatial continuity through conditioning points. The new method also reproduces the overall response in hydraulic head field with better accuracy compared to data assimilation with no constraints on spatial continuity on facies.« less

An OSSE Study for Deep Argo Array using the GFDL Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, You-Soon; Zhang, Shaoqing; Rosati, Anthony; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Xiaosong

2018-03-01

An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system was designed to investigate the impact of deep ocean Argo profile assimilation in a biased numerical climate system. Based on the modern Argo observational array and an artificial extension to full depth, "observations" drawn from one coupled general circulation model (CM2.0) were assimilated into another model (CM2.1). Our results showed that coupled data assimilation with simultaneous atmospheric and oceanic constraints plays a significant role in preventing deep ocean drift. However, the extension of the Argo array to full depth did not significantly improve the quality of the oceanic climate estimation within the bias magnitude in the twin experiment. Even in the "identical" twin experiment for the deep Argo array from the same model (CM2.1) with the assimilation model, no significant changes were shown in the deep ocean, such as in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the Antarctic bottom water cell. The small ensemble spread and corresponding weak constraints by the deep Argo profiles with medium spatial and temporal resolution may explain why the deep Argo profiles did not improve the deep ocean features in the assimilation system. Additional studies using different assimilation methods with improved spatial and temporal resolution of the deep Argo array are necessary in order to more thoroughly understand the impact of the deep Argo array on the assimilation system.

Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Zhang, X.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

2014-01-01

Data assimilation has been demonstrated very useful in improving both global and regional numerical weather prediction. Alaska has very coarser surface observation sites. On the other hand, it gets much more satellite overpass than lower 48 states. How to utilize satellite data to improve numerical prediction is one of hot topics among weather forecast community in Alaska. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at University of Alaska is conducting study on satellite data assimilation for WRF model. AIRS/CRIS sounder profile data are used to assimilate the initial condition for the customized regional WRF model (GINA-WRF model). Normalized standard deviation, RMSE, and correlation statistic analysis methods are applied to analyze one case of 48 hours forecasts and one month of 24-hour forecasts in order to evaluate the improvement of regional numerical model from Data assimilation. The final goal of the research is to provide improved real-time short-time forecast for Alaska regions.

Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

PubMed

Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

2004-01-01

In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

Assimilation of satellite altimeter data into an open ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogeler, Armin; SchröTer, Jens

1995-08-01

Geosat sea surface height data are assimilated into an eddy-resolving quasi-geostrophic open ocean model using the adjoint technique. The method adjusts the initial conditions for all layers and is successful on the timescale of a few weeks. Time-varying values for the open boundaries are prescribed by a much larger quasi-geostrophic model of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Both models have the same resolution of approximately 20×20 km (1/3°×1/6°), have three layers, and include realistic bottom topography and coastlines. The open model box is embedded in the African sector of the ACC. For continuous assimilation of satellite data into the larger model the nudging technique is applied. These results are used for the adjoint optimization procedure as boundary conditions and as a first guess for the initial condition. For the open model box the difference between model and satellite sea surface height that remains after the nudging experiment amounts to a 19-cm root-mean-square error (rmse). By assimilation into the regional model this value can be reduced to a 6-cm rmse for an assimilation period of 20 days. Several experiments which attempt to improve the convergence of the iterative optimization method are reported. Scaling and regularization by smoothing have to be applied carefully. Especially during the first 10 iterations, the convergence can be improved considerably by low-pass filtering of the cost function gradient. The result of a perturbation experiment shows that for longer assimilation periods the influence of the boundary values becomes dominant and they should be determined inversely by data assimilation into the open ocean model.

Assimilation of LAI time-series in crop production models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kooistra, Lammert; Rijk, Bert; Nannes, Louis

2014-05-01

Agriculture is worldwide a large consumer of freshwater, nutrients and land. Spatial explicit agricultural management activities (e.g., fertilization, irrigation) could significantly improve efficiency in resource use. In previous studies and operational applications, remote sensing has shown to be a powerful method for spatio-temporal monitoring of actual crop status. As a next step, yield forecasting by assimilating remote sensing based plant variables in crop production models would improve agricultural decision support both at the farm and field level. In this study we investigated the potential of remote sensing based Leaf Area Index (LAI) time-series assimilated in the crop production model LINTUL to improve yield forecasting at field level. The effect of assimilation method and amount of assimilated observations was evaluated. The LINTUL-3 crop production model was calibrated and validated for a potato crop on two experimental fields in the south of the Netherlands. A range of data sources (e.g., in-situ soil moisture and weather sensors, destructive crop measurements) was used for calibration of the model for the experimental field in 2010. LAI from cropscan field radiometer measurements and actual LAI measured with the LAI-2000 instrument were used as input for the LAI time-series. The LAI time-series were assimilated in the LINTUL model and validated for a second experimental field on which potatoes were grown in 2011. Yield in 2011 was simulated with an R2 of 0.82 when compared with field measured yield. Furthermore, we analysed the potential of assimilation of LAI into the LINTUL-3 model through the 'updating' assimilation technique. The deviation between measured and simulated yield decreased from 9371 kg/ha to 8729 kg/ha when assimilating weekly LAI measurements in the LINTUL model over the season of 2011. LINTUL-3 furthermore shows the main growth reducing factors, which are useful for farm decision support. The combination of crop models and sensor techniques shows promising results for precision agriculture application and thereby for reduction of the footprint agriculture has on the world's resources.

Adjustment of trendy, gaming and less assimilated tweens in the United States

PubMed Central

Comulada, W. Scott; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Carey, George; Poris, Michelle; Lord, Lynwood R.; Mayfield Arnold, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Youth transitioning from childhood to adolescence (tweens) are exposed to increasing amounts of media and advertisement. Tweens have also emerged as a major marketing segment for corporate America with increasing buying power.We examine how tweens relate to popular culture messages and the association of different orientations to popular culture on adjustment. A secondary data analysis was conducted on a marketing survey of 3527 tweens, aged 10–14 years, obtained from 49 schools using stratified sampling methods. A sample of children nationwide described their preferences on popular culture and measures of psychosocial adjustment. Using cluster analysis, we identified three main clusters or adaptation styles of tweens: (1) those who enjoyed gaming, (2) trendy youth and (3) youth less assimilated into popular culture. There were differences in clusters based on adjustment indices. Gaming and trendy tweens reported higher self-perceptions of being smart, caring and confident compared to less assimilated tweens. However, gaming and trendy tweens worried more about fitting in than less assimilated tweens. Gaming and trendy tweens also endorsed future goals and traditional values more strongly than less assimilated tweens. Trendy tweens reported the strongest positive feelings about substance use. Results suggest that for each method of adaptation (gamer, trendy and less assimilated), there are unique differences in adjustment that can impact the child’s future. Parents and service providers must recognize the complexity of these decisions and be sensitive to the unique needs of youth as they move from childhood to adolescence. PMID:25580153

Adjustment of trendy, gaming and less assimilated tweens in the United States.

PubMed

Comulada, W Scott; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Carey, George; Poris, Michelle; Lord, Lynwood R; Mayfield Arnold, Elizabeth

2011-09-01

Youth transitioning from childhood to adolescence (tweens) are exposed to increasing amounts of media and advertisement. Tweens have also emerged as a major marketing segment for corporate America with increasing buying power.We examine how tweens relate to popular culture messages and the association of different orientations to popular culture on adjustment. A secondary data analysis was conducted on a marketing survey of 3527 tweens, aged 10-14 years, obtained from 49 schools using stratified sampling methods. A sample of children nationwide described their preferences on popular culture and measures of psychosocial adjustment. Using cluster analysis, we identified three main clusters or adaptation styles of tweens: (1) those who enjoyed gaming, (2) trendy youth and (3) youth less assimilated into popular culture. There were differences in clusters based on adjustment indices. Gaming and trendy tweens reported higher self-perceptions of being smart, caring and confident compared to less assimilated tweens. However, gaming and trendy tweens worried more about fitting in than less assimilated tweens. Gaming and trendy tweens also endorsed future goals and traditional values more strongly than less assimilated tweens. Trendy tweens reported the strongest positive feelings about substance use. Results suggest that for each method of adaptation (gamer, trendy and less assimilated), there are unique differences in adjustment that can impact the child's future. Parents and service providers must recognize the complexity of these decisions and be sensitive to the unique needs of youth as they move from childhood to adolescence.

Data assimilation using a GPU accelerated path integral Monte Carlo approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, John C.; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.

2011-09-01

The answers to data assimilation questions can be expressed as path integrals over all possible state and parameter histories. We show how these path integrals can be evaluated numerically using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method designed to run in parallel on a graphics processing unit (GPU). We demonstrate the application of the method to an example with a transmembrane voltage time series of a simulated neuron as an input, and using a Hodgkin-Huxley neuron model. By taking advantage of GPU computing, we gain a parallel speedup factor of up to about 300, compared to an equivalent serial computation on a CPU, with performance increasing as the length of the observation time used for data assimilation increases.

River discharge estimation from synthetic SWOT-type observations using variational data assimilation and the full Saint-Venant hydraulic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oubanas, Hind; Gejadze, Igor; Malaterre, Pierre-Olivier; Mercier, Franck

2018-04-01

The upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography satellite mission, to be launched in 2021, will measure river water surface elevation, slope and width, with an unprecedented level of accuracy for a remote sensing tool. This work investigates the river discharge estimation from synthetic SWOT observations, in the presence of strong uncertainties in the model inputs, i.e. the river bathymetry and bed roughness. The estimation problem is solved by a novel variant of the standard variational data assimilation, the '4D-Var' method, involving the full Saint-Venant 1.5D-network hydraulic model SIC2. The assimilation scheme simultaneously estimates the discharge, bed elevation and bed roughness coefficient and is designed to assimilate both satellite and in situ measurements. The method is tested on a 50 km-long reach of the Garonne River during a five-month period of the year 2010, characterized by multiple flooding events. First, the impact of the sampling frequency on discharge estimation is investigated. Secondly, discharge as well as the spatially distributed bed elevation and bed roughness coefficient are determined simultaneously. Results demonstrate feasibility and efficiency of the chosen combination of the estimation method and of the hydraulic model. Assimilation of the SWOT data results into an accurate estimation of the discharge at observation times, and a local improvement in the bed level and bed roughness coefficient. However, the latter estimates are not generally usable for different independent experiments.

Retrieval of land parameters by multi-sensor information using the Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernetskiy, Maxim; Gobron, Nadine; Gomez-Dans, Jose; Disney, Mathias

2016-07-01

Upcoming satellite constellations will substantially increase the amount of Earth Observation (EO) data, and presents us with the challenge of consistently using all these available information to infer the state of the land surface, parameterised through Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). A promising approach to this problem is the use of physically based models that describe the processes that generate the images, using e.g. radiative transfer (RT) theory. However, these models need to be inverted to infer the land surface parameters from the observations, and there is often not enough information in the EO data to satisfactorily achieve this. Data assimilation (DA) approaches supplement the EO data with prior information in the form of models or prior parameter distributions, and have the potential for solving the inversion problem. These methods however are computationally expensive. In this study, we show the use of fast surrogate models of the RT codes (emulators) based on Gaussian Processes (Gomez-Dans et al, 2016) embedded with the Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EO-LDAS) framework (Lewis et al 2012) in order to estimate the surface of the land surface from a heterogeneous set of optical observations. The study uses time series of moderate spatial resolution observations from MODIS (250 m), MERIS (300 m) and MISR (275 m) over one site to infer the temporal evolution of a number of land surface parameters (and associated uncertainties) related to vegetation: leaf area index (LAI), leaf chlorophyll content, etc. These parameter estimates are then used as input to an RT model (semidiscrete or PROSAIL, for example) to calculate fluxes such as broad band albedo or fAPAR. The study demonstrates that blending different sensors in a consistent way using physical models results in a rich and coherent set of land surface parameters retrieved, with quantified uncertainties. The use of RT models also allows for the consistent prediction of fluxes, with a simple mechanism for propagating the uncertainty in the land surface parameters to the flux estimates.

BEATBOX v1.0: Background Error Analysis Testbed with Box Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knote, Christoph; Barré, Jérôme; Eckl, Max

2018-02-01

The Background Error Analysis Testbed (BEATBOX) is a new data assimilation framework for box models. Based on the BOX Model eXtension (BOXMOX) to the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP), this framework allows users to conduct performance evaluations of data assimilation experiments, sensitivity analyses, and detailed chemical scheme diagnostics from an observation simulation system experiment (OSSE) point of view. The BEATBOX framework incorporates an observation simulator and a data assimilation system with the possibility of choosing ensemble, adjoint, or combined sensitivities. A user-friendly, Python-based interface allows for the tuning of many parameters for atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation research as well as for educational purposes, for example observation error, model covariances, ensemble size, perturbation distribution in the initial conditions, and so on. In this work, the testbed is described and two case studies are presented to illustrate the design of a typical OSSE experiment, data assimilation experiments, a sensitivity analysis, and a method for diagnosing model errors. BEATBOX is released as an open source tool for the atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation communities.

POD/DEIM reduced-order strategies for efficient four dimensional variational data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ştefănescu, R.; Sandu, A.; Navon, I. M.

2015-08-01

This work studies reduced order modeling (ROM) approaches to speed up the solution of variational data assimilation problems with large scale nonlinear dynamical models. It is shown that a key requirement for a successful reduced order solution is that reduced order Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions accurately represent their full order counterparts. In particular, accurate reduced order approximations are needed for the forward and adjoint dynamical models, as well as for the reduced gradient. New strategies to construct reduced order based are developed for proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) ROM data assimilation using both Galerkin and Petrov-Galerkin projections. For the first time POD, tensorial POD, and discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) are employed to develop reduced data assimilation systems for a geophysical flow model, namely, the two dimensional shallow water equations. Numerical experiments confirm the theoretical framework for Galerkin projection. In the case of Petrov-Galerkin projection, stabilization strategies must be considered for the reduced order models. The new reduced order shallow water data assimilation system provides analyses similar to those produced by the full resolution data assimilation system in one tenth of the computational time.

Multi-Scale 4DVAR Assimilation of Glider Teams on the North Carolina Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborne, J. J. V.; Carrier, M.; Book, J. W.; Barron, C. N.; Rice, A. E.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, L.; Souopgui, I.; Teague, W. J.

2017-12-01

We demonstrate a method to assimilate glider profile data from multiple gliders in close proximity ( 10 km or less). Gliders were deployed in a field experiment from 17 May until 4 June 2017, north of Cape Hatteras and inshore of the Gulf Stream. Gliders were divided into two teams, generally two or three gliders per team. One team was tasked with station keeping and the other with moving and sampling regions of high variability in temperature and salinity. Glider data are assimilated into the Relocatable Navy Coastal Ocean Model (RELO NCOM) with four dimensional variational assimilation (NCOM-4DVAR). RELO NCOM is used by the US Navy to predict the ocean. RELO NCOM is a baroclinic, Boussinesq, free-surface, and hydrostatic ocean model with a flexible sigma-z vertical coordinate. Two domains are used, one focused north and one focused south of Cape Hatteras. The domains overlap near the gliders, thus providing two forecasts near the gliders. Both domains have 1 km horizontal resolution. Data are assimilated in a newly-developed multi-scale data-processing and assimilating approach using NCOM-4DVAR. This enables NCOM-4DVAR to use many more observations than standard NCOM-4DVAR, improving the analysis and forecast. Assimilation experiments use station-keeping glider data, moving glider data, or all glider data. Sea surface temperature (SST) data and satellite altimeter (SSH) data are also assimilated. An additional experiment omits glider data but still assimilates SST and SSH data. Conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) profiles from the R/V Savannah are used for validation, including data from an underway CTD (UCTD). Data from glider teams have the potential to significantly improve model forecasts. Missions using teams of gliders can be planned to maximize data assimilation for optimal impact on model predictions.

Next generation initiation techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, Tom; Derber, John; Zupanski, Milija; Cohn, Steve; Verlinde, Hans

1993-01-01

Four-dimensional data assimilation strategies can generally be classified as either current or next generation, depending upon whether they are used operationally or not. Current-generation data-assimilation techniques are those that are presently used routinely in operational-forecasting or research applications. They can be classified into the following categories: intermittent assimilation, Newtonian relaxation, and physical initialization. It should be noted that these techniques are the subject of continued research, and their improvement will parallel the development of next generation techniques described by the other speakers. Next generation assimilation techniques are those that are under development but are not yet used operationally. Most of these procedures are derived from control theory or variational methods and primarily represent continuous assimilation approaches, in which the data and model dynamics are 'fitted' to each other in an optimal way. Another 'next generation' category is the initialization of convective-scale models. Intermittent assimilation systems use an objective analysis to combine all observations within a time window that is centered on the analysis time. Continuous first-generation assimilation systems are usually based on the Newtonian-relaxation or 'nudging' techniques. Physical initialization procedures generally involve the use of standard or nonstandard data to force some physical process in the model during an assimilation period. Under the topic of next-generation assimilation techniques, variational approaches are currently being actively developed. Variational approaches seek to minimize a cost or penalty function which measures a model's fit to observations, background fields and other imposed constraints. Alternatively, the Kalman filter technique, which is also under investigation as a data assimilation procedure for numerical weather prediction, can yield acceptable initial conditions for mesoscale models. The third kind of next-generation technique involves strategies to initialize convective scale (non-hydrostatic) models.

I Know There Is No Justice: Palestinian Perceptions of Higher Education in Jordan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marar, Marianne Maurice

2011-01-01

This qualitative study utilizes critical ethnography methods to illustrate Palestinian refugee perceptions of higher education in Jordan. Participants addressed their assimilation to the Jordanian national identity as a means of obtaining education. Content and access to education were more important than assimilation, maintenance of ethnic…

An integrated error estimation and lag-aware data assimilation scheme for real-time flood forecasting

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The performance of conventional filtering methods can be degraded by ignoring the time lag between soil moisture and discharge response when discharge observations are assimilated into streamflow modelling. This has led to the ongoing development of more optimal ways to implement sequential data ass...

DasPy 1.0 - the Open Source Multivariate Land Data Assimilation Framework in combination with the Community Land Model 4.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, X.; Li, X.; He, G.; Kumbhar, P.; Montzka, C.; Kollet, S.; Miyoshi, T.; Rosolem, R.; Zhang, Y.; Vereecken, H.; Franssen, H.-J. H.

2015-08-01

Data assimilation has become a popular method to integrate observations from multiple sources with land surface models to improve predictions of the water and energy cycles of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. Multivariate data assimilation refers to the simultaneous assimilation of observation data from multiple model state variables into a simulation model. In recent years, several land data assimilation systems have been developed in different research agencies. Because of the software availability or adaptability, these systems are not easy to apply for the purpose of multivariate land data assimilation research. We developed an open source multivariate land data assimilation framework (DasPy) which is implemented using the Python script language mixed with the C++ and Fortran programming languages. LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) is implemented as the main data assimilation algorithm, and uncertainties in the data assimilation can be introduced by perturbed atmospheric forcing data, and represented by perturbed soil and vegetation parameters and model initial conditions. The Community Land Model (CLM) was integrated as the model operator. The implementation allows also parameter estimation (soil properties and/or leaf area index) on the basis of the joint state and parameter estimation approach. The Community Microwave Emission Modelling platform (CMEM), COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Interaction Code (COSMIC) and the Two-Source Formulation (TSF) were integrated as observation operators for the assimilation of L-band passive microwave, cosmic-ray soil moisture probe and land surface temperature measurements, respectively. DasPy has been evaluated in several assimilation studies of neutron count intensity (soil moisture), L-band brightness temperature and land surface temperature. DasPy is parallelized using the hybrid Message Passing Interface and Open Multi-Processing techniques. All the input and output data flows are organized efficiently using the commonly used NetCDF file format. Online 1-D and 2-D visualization of data assimilation results is also implemented to facilitate the post simulation analysis. In summary, DasPy is a ready to use open source parallel multivariate land data assimilation framework.

A Method of Successive Corrections of the Control Subspace in the Reduced-Order Variational Data Assimilation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-01

Evensen, G., 2003: The ensemble Kalman filter : Theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dyn., 53, 343–357, doi:10.1007/s10236-003...0036-9. ——, 2006: Data Assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman Filter . Springer, 288 pp. Fang, F., C. C. Pain, I. M. Navon, G. J. Gorman, M. D. Piggott, P. A...E. J. Kostelich, M. Corazza, E. Kalnay, and D. J. Patil, 2004: A local ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation. Tellus, 56A, 415–428

Variability in Tropospheric Ozone over China Derived from Assimilated GOME-2 Ozone Profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Peet, J. C. A.; van der A, R. J.; Kelder, H. M.

2016-08-01

A tropospheric ozone dataset is derived from assimilated GOME-2 ozone profiles for 2008. Ozone profiles are retrieved with the OPERA algorithm, using the optimal estimation method. The retrievals are done on a spatial resolution of 160×160 km on 16 layers ranging from the surface up to 0.01 hPa. By using the averaging kernels in the data assimilation, the algorithm maintains the high resolution vertical structures of the model, while being constrained by observations with a lower vertical resolution.

Assimilation of MODIS and VIIRS AOD to improve aerosols forecasts with FV3-GOCART

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagowski, M.

2017-12-01

In 2016 NOAA chose the FV3 dynamical core as a basis for its future global modeling system. We present an implementation of aerosol module in the FV3 model and its assimilation framework. The parameterization of aerosols is based on the GOCART scheme. The assimilation methodology relies on hybrid 3D-Var and EnKF methods. Aerosol observations include aerosol optical depth at 550 nm from VIIRS satellite. Results and evaluation of the system against independent observations and NASA's MERRA-2 is shown.

A simple lightning assimilation technique for improving ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme to improve retrospective simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assimilation method has a straightforward approach: force KF deep convection where lightning is observed and, optionally, suppress deep convection where lightning is absent. WRF simulations were made with and without lightning assimilation over the continental United States for July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. The simulations were evaluated against NCEP stage-IV precipitation data and MADIS near-surface meteorological observations. In general, the use of lightning assimilation considerably improves the simulation of summertime rainfall. For example, the July 2012 monthly averaged bias of 6 h accumulated rainfall is reduced from 0.54 to 0.07 mm and the spatial correlation is increased from 0.21 to 0.43 when lightning assimilation is used. Statistical measures of near-surface meteorological variables also are improved. Consistent improvements also are seen for the July 2013 case. These results suggest that this lightning assimilation technique has the potential to substantially improve simulation of warm-season rainfall in retrospective WRF applications. The

A Simple Lightning Assimilation Technique For Improving ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme to improve retrospective simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assimilation method has a straightforward approach: Force KF deep convection where lightning is observed and, optionally, suppress deep convection where lightning is absent. WRF simulations were made with and without lightning assimilation over the continental United States for July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. The simulations were evaluated against NCEP stage-IV precipitation data and MADIS near-surface meteorological observations. In general, the use of lightning assimilation considerably improves the simulation of summertime rainfall. For example, the July 2012 monthly-averaged bias of 6-h accumulated rainfall is reduced from 0.54 mm to 0.07 mm and the spatial correlation is increased from 0.21 to 0.43 when lightning assimilation is used. Statistical measures of near-surface meteorological variables also are improved. Consistent improvements also are seen for the July 2013 case. These results suggest that this lightning assimilation technique has the potential to substantially improve simulation of warm-season rainfall in retrospective WRF appli

A nudging-based data assimilation method: the Back and Forth Nudging (BFN) algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auroux, D.; Blum, J.

2008-03-01

This paper deals with a new data assimilation algorithm, called Back and Forth Nudging. The standard nudging technique consists in adding to the equations of the model a relaxation term that is supposed to force the observations to the model. The BFN algorithm consists in repeatedly performing forward and backward integrations of the model with relaxation (or nudging) terms, using opposite signs in the direct and inverse integrations, so as to make the backward evolution numerically stable. This algorithm has first been tested on the standard Lorenz model with discrete observations (perfect or noisy) and compared with the variational assimilation method. The same type of study has then been performed on the viscous Burgers equation, comparing again with the variational method and focusing on the time evolution of the reconstruction error, i.e. the difference between the reference trajectory and the identified one over a time period composed of an assimilation period followed by a prediction period. The possible use of the BFN algorithm as an initialization for the variational method has also been investigated. Finally the algorithm has been tested on a layered quasi-geostrophic model with sea-surface height observations. The behaviours of the two algorithms have been compared in the presence of perfect or noisy observations, and also for imperfect models. This has allowed us to reach a conclusion concerning the relative performances of the two algorithms.

Role of Forcing Uncertainty and Background Model Error Characterization in Snow Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sujay V.; Dong, Jiarul; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Mocko, David; Gomez, Breogan

2017-01-01

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

Skin Temperature Analysis and Bias Correction in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Radakovich, Jon D.; daSilva, Arlindo; Todling, Ricardo; Verter, Frances

2006-01-01

In an initial investigation, remotely sensed surface temperature is assimilated into a coupled atmosphere/land global data assimilation system, with explicit accounting for biases in the model state. In this scheme, an incremental bias correction term is introduced in the model's surface energy budget. In its simplest form, the algorithm estimates and corrects a constant time mean bias for each gridpoint; additional benefits are attained with a refined version of the algorithm which allows for a correction of the mean diurnal cycle. The method is validated against the assimilated observations, as well as independent near-surface air temperature observations. In many regions, not accounting for the diurnal cycle of bias caused degradation of the diurnal amplitude of background model air temperature. Energy fluxes collected through the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) are used to more closely inspect the surface energy budget. In general, sensible heat flux is improved with the surface temperature assimilation, and two stations show a reduction of bias by as much as 30 Wm(sup -2) Rondonia station in Amazonia, the Bowen ratio changes direction in an improvement related to the temperature assimilation. However, at many stations the monthly latent heat flux bias is slightly increased. These results show the impact of univariate assimilation of surface temperature observations on the surface energy budget, and suggest the need for multivariate land data assimilation. The results also show the need for independent validation data, especially flux stations in varied climate regimes.

Towards the operational estimation of a radiological plume using data assimilation after a radiological accidental atmospheric release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiarek, Victor; Vira, Julius; Bocquet, Marc; Sofiev, Mikhail; Saunier, Olivier

2011-06-01

In the event of an accidental atmospheric release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, accurate real-time forecasting of the activity concentrations of radionuclides is required by the decision makers for the preparation of adequate countermeasures. The accuracy of the forecast plume is highly dependent on the source term estimation. On several academic test cases, including real data, inverse modelling and data assimilation techniques were proven to help in the assessment of the source term. In this paper, a semi-automatic method is proposed for the sequential reconstruction of the plume, by implementing a sequential data assimilation algorithm based on inverse modelling, with a care to develop realistic methods for operational risk agencies. The performance of the assimilation scheme has been assessed through the intercomparison between French and Finnish frameworks. Two dispersion models have been used: Polair3D and Silam developed in two different research centres. Different release locations, as well as different meteorological situations are tested. The existing and newly planned surveillance networks are used and realistically large multiplicative observational errors are assumed. The inverse modelling scheme accounts for strong error bias encountered with such errors. The efficiency of the data assimilation system is tested via statistical indicators. For France and Finland, the average performance of the data assimilation system is strong. However there are outlying situations where the inversion fails because of a too poor observability. In addition, in the case where the power plant responsible for the accidental release is not known, robust statistical tools are developed and tested to discriminate candidate release sites.

The Impact of Assimilation of GPM Clear Sky Radiance on HWRF Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, C. L.; Pu, Z.

2016-12-01

The impact of GPM microwave imager (GMI) clear sky radiances on hurricane forecasting is examined by ingesting GMI level 1C recalibrated brightness temperature into the NCEP Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)- based ensemble-variational hybrid data assimilation system for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) system. The GMI clear sky radiances are compared with the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) simulated radiances to closely study the quality of the radiance observations. The quality check result indicates the presence of bias in various channels. A static bias correction scheme, in which the appropriate bias correction coefficients for GMI data is evaluated by applying regression method on a sufficiently large sample of data representative to the observational bias in the regions of concern, is used to correct the observational bias in GMI clear sky radiances. Forecast results with and without assimilation of GMI radiance are compared using hurricane cases from recent hurricane seasons (e.g., Hurricane Joaquin in 2015). Diagnoses of data assimilation results show that the bias correction coefficients obtained from the regression method can correct the inherent biases in GMI radiance data, significantly reducing observational residuals. The removal of biases also allows more data to pass GSI quality control and hence to be assimilated into the model. Forecast results for hurricane Joaquin demonstrates that the quality of analysis from the data assimilation is sensitive to the bias correction, with positive impacts on the hurricane track forecast when systematic biases are removed from the radiance data. Details will be presented at the symposium.

Assimilation of SMOS (and SMAP) Retrieved Soil Moisture into the Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan; Stano, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Goal: Accurate, high-resolution (approx.3 km) soil moisture in near-real time. Situational awareness (drought assessment, flood and fire threat). Local modeling applications (to improve sfc-PBL exchanges) Method: Assimilate satellite soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model. Combines high-resolution geophysical model data with latest satellite observations.

Nonlinear problems in data-assimilation : Can synchronization help?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tribbia, J. J.; Duane, G. S.

2009-12-01

Over the past several years, operational weather centers have initiated ensemble prediction and assimilation techniques to estimate the error covariance of forecasts in the short and the medium range. The ensemble techniques used are based on linear methods. The theory This technique s been shown to be a useful indicator of skill in the linear range where forecast errors are small relative to climatological variance. While this advance has been impressive, there are still ad hoc aspects of its use in practice, like the need for covariance inflation which are troubling. Furthermore, to be of utility in the nonlinear range an ensemble assimilation and prediction method must be capable of giving probabilistic information for the situation where a probability density forecast becomes multi-modal. A prototypical, simplest example of such a situation is the planetary-wave regime transition where the pdf is bimodal. Our recent research show how the inconsistencies and extensions of linear methodology can be consistently treated using the paradigm of synchronization which views the problems of assimilation and forecasting as that of optimizing the forecast model state with respect to the future evolution of the atmosphere.

Parameter estimation of anisotropic Manning's n coefficient for advanced circulation (ADCIRC) modeling of estuarine river currents (lower St. Johns River)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Henok K.; Bacopoulos, Peter

2017-05-01

A rich dataset of time- and space-varying velocity measurements for a macrotidal estuary was used in the development of a vector-based formulation of bottom roughness in the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The updates to the parallel code of ADCIRC to include directionally based drag coefficient are briefly discussed in the paper, followed by an application of the data assimilation (nudging analysis) to the lower St. Johns River (northeastern Florida) for parameter estimation of anisotropic Manning's n coefficient. The method produced converging estimates of Manning's n values for ebb (0.0290) and flood (0.0219) when initialized with uniform and isotropic setting of 0.0200. Modeled currents, water levels and flows were improved at observation locations where data were assimilated as well as at monitoring locations where data were not assimilated, such that the method increases model skill locally and non-locally with regard to the data locations. The methodology is readily transferrable to other circulation/estuary models, given pre-developed quality mesh/grid and adequate data available for assimilation.

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Execute Cycled WRF/GSI Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Berndt, Emily; Li, Quanli; Watson, Leela

2014-01-01

Automating the coupling of data assimilation (DA) and modeling systems is a unique challenge in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) research community. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released well-documented tools such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system that can be easily downloaded, installed, and run by researchers on their local systems. However, developing a coupled system in which the various preprocessing, DA, model, and postprocessing capabilities are all integrated can be labor-intensive if one has little experience with any of these individual systems. Additionally, operational modeling entities generally have specific coupling methodologies that can take time to understand and develop code to implement properly. To better enable collaborating researchers to perform modeling and DA experiments with GSI, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a set of Perl scripts that couple GSI and WRF in a cycling methodology consistent with the use of real-time, regional observation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). Because Perl is open source, the code can be easily downloaded and executed regardless of the user's native shell environment. This paper will provide a description of this open-source code and descriptions of a number of the use cases that have been performed by SPoRT collaborators using the scripts on different computing systems.

Assimilation of MODIS Ice Surface Temperature and Albedo into the Snow and Ice Model CROCUS Over the Greenland Ice Sheet Along the K-transect Stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navari, M.; Margulis, S. A.; Bateni, S. M.; Alexander, P. M.; Tedesco, M.

2016-12-01

Estimating the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) is an important component of current and future projections of sea level rise. In situ measurement provides direct estimates of the SMB, but are inherently limited by their spatial extent and representativeness. Given this limitation, physically based regional climate models (RCMs) are critical for understanding GrIS physical processes and estimating of the GrIS SMB. However, the uncertainty in estimates of SMB from RCMs is still high. Surface remote sensing (RS) has been used as a complimentary tool to characterize various aspects related to the SMB. The difficulty of using these data streams is that the links between them and the SMB terms are most often indirect and implicit. Given the lack of in situ information, imperfect models, and under-utilized RS data it is critical to merge the available data in a systematic way to better characterize the spatial and temporal variation of the GrIS SMB. This work proposes a data assimilation (DA) framework that yields temporally-continuous and physically consistent SMB estimates that benefit from state-of-the-art models and relevant remote sensing data streams. Ice surface temperature (IST) is the most important factor that regulates partitioning of the net radiation into the subsurface snow/ice, sensible and latent heat fluxes and plays a key role in runoff generation. Therefore it can be expected that a better estimate of surface temperature from a data assimilation system would contribute to a better estimate of surface mass fluxes. Albedo plays an important role in the surface energy balance of the GrIS. However, even advanced albedo modules are not adequate to simulate albedo over the GrIS. Therefore, merging remotely sensed albedo product into a physically based model has a potential to improve the estimates of the GrIS SMB. In this work a MODIS-derived IST and a 16-day albedo product are independently assimilated into the snow and ice model CROCUS. Comparison of our results against the in situ SMB measurements over the K-transect stations shows that assimilation of IST does not considerably improve the GrIS SMB terms. The main reason is hypothesized to be due to a cold bias in the IST product. On the other hand, assimilation of 16-day albedo product reduces the RMSE of the posterior estimates of the SMB by 63%.

Dual Assimilation of Microwave and Thermal-Infrared Satellite Observations of Soil Moisture into NLDAS for Improved Drought Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hain, C.; Crow, W. T.; Anderson, M. C.; Zhan, X.; Wardlow, B.; Svoboda, M. D.; Mecikalski, J. R.

2011-12-01

Our research group is currently developing an operational data assimilation (DA) system for the optimal assimilation of thermal infrared (TIR) and microwave (MV) soil moisture (SM) and insertion of near real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) into the Noah land-surface model component of the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). NLDAS produces the hydrologic products (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff) used by NCEP for operational drought monitoring, but these products are sensitive to model input errors in soil texture (affecting infiltration rates) and prescribed precipitation rates. Periodic updates of SM state variables in LSMs achieved by assimilating diagnostic moisture information retrieved using satellite remote sensing have been shown to compensate for model errors and result in improved hydrologic output. The work proposed here will build on a project currently funded under the Climate Test Bed Program entitled "A GOES Thermal-Based Drought Early Warning Index for NIDIS", which is developing an operational TIR SM index (Evaporative Stress Index; ESI) based on maps of the ratio of actual to potential ET (fPET) generated with the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance algorithm. The research team has demonstrated that diagnostic information about SM and evapotranspiration (ET) from MW and TIR remote sensing can significantly reduce SM drifts in LSMs such as Noah. The two different SM retrievals have been shown to be quite complementary: TIR provides relatively high spatial (down to 100 m) and low temporal resolution (due to cloud cover) retrievals over a wide range of GVF, while MW provides relatively low spatial (25 to 60 km) and high temporal resolution (can retrieve through cloud cover), but only over areas with low GVF. Furthermore, MW retrievals are sensitive to SM only in the first few centimeters of the soil profile, while TIR provides information about SM conditions integrated over the full root-zone, reflected in the observed canopy temperature. The added value of TIR over MW alone is most significant in areas of moderate to dense vegetation cover where MW retrievals have very little sensitivity to SM at any depth. Finally, climatological estimates of GVF currently used in the operational NLDAS are not always representative of observed seasonal and intra-seasonal GVF conditions, especially in regions experiencing drought conditions. A detailed methodology of the assimilation system will be presented along with an analysis of initial results, with an emphasis on comparisons with in-situ SM observations and standard drought metrics.

On the problem of data assimilation by means of synchronization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szendro, Ivan G.; RodríGuez, Miguel A.; López, Juan M.

2009-10-01

The potential use of synchronization as a method for data assimilation is investigated in a Lorenz96 model. Data representing the reality are obtained from a Lorenz96 model with added noise. We study the assimilation scheme by means of synchronization for different noise intensities. We use a novel plot representation of the synchronization error in a phase diagram consisting of two variables: the amplitude and the width of the error after a suitable logarithmic transformation (the so-called mean-variance of logarithms diagram). Our main result concerns the existence of an "optimal" coupling for which the synchronization is maximal. We finally show how this allows us to quantify the degree of assimilation, providing a criterion for the selection of optimal couplings and validity of models.

Data Assimilation in the ADAPT Photospheric Flux Transport Model

DOE PAGES

Hickmann, Kyle S.; Godinez, Humberto C.; Henney, Carl J.; ...

2015-03-17

Global maps of the solar photospheric magnetic flux are fundamental drivers for simulations of the corona and solar wind and therefore are important predictors of geoeffective events. However, observations of the solar photosphere are only made intermittently over approximately half of the solar surface. The Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model uses localized ensemble Kalman filtering techniques to adjust a set of photospheric simulations to agree with the available observations. At the same time, this information is propagated to areas of the simulation that have not been observed. ADAPT implements a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF)more » to accomplish data assimilation, allowing the covariance structure of the flux-transport model to influence assimilation of photosphere observations while eliminating spurious correlations between ensemble members arising from a limited ensemble size. We give a detailed account of the implementation of the LETKF into ADAPT. Advantages of the LETKF scheme over previously implemented assimilation methods are highlighted.« less

Short-Term Retrospective Land Data Assimilation Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houser, P. R.; Cosgrove, B. A.; Entin, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D.; ODonnell, G.; Mitchell, K.; Marshall, C.; Lohmann, D.; Schaake, J. C.; Duan, Q.;

Variational data assimilation for tropospheric chemistry modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbern, Hendrik; Schmidt, Hauke; Ebel, Adolf

1997-07-01

The method of variational adjoint data assimilation has been applied to assimilate chemistry observations into a comprehensive tropospheric gas phase model. The rationale of this method is to find the correct initial values for a subsequent atmospheric chemistry model run when observations scattered in time are available. The variational adjoint technique is esteemed to be a promising tool for future advanced meteorological forecasting. The stimulating experience gained with the application of four-dimensional variational data assimilation in this research area has motivated the attempt to apply the technique to air quality modeling and analysis of the chemical state of the atmosphere. The present study describes the development and application of the adjoint of the second-generation regional acid deposition model gas phase mechanism, which is used in the European air pollution dispersion model system. Performance results of the assimilation scheme using both model-generated data and real observations are presented for tropospheric conditions. In the former case it is demonstrated that time series of only few or even one measured key species convey sufficient information to improve considerably the analysis of unobserved species which are directly coupled with the observed species. In the latter case a Lagrangian approach is adopted where trajectory calculations between two comprehensively furnished measurement sites are carried out. The method allows us to analyze initial data for air pollution modeling even when only sparse observations are available. Besides remarkable improvements of the model performance by properly analyzed initial concentrations, it is shown that the adjoint algorithm offers the feasibility to estimate the sensitivity of ozone concentrations relative to its precursors.

Data assimilation experiments using diffusive back-and-forth nudging for the NEMO ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruggiero, G. A.; Ourmières, Y.; Cosme, E.; Blum, J.; Auroux, D.; Verron, J.

2015-04-01

The diffusive back-and-forth nudging (DBFN) is an easy-to-implement iterative data assimilation method based on the well-known nudging method. It consists of a sequence of forward and backward model integrations, within a given time window, both of them using a feedback term to the observations. Therefore, in the DBFN, the nudging asymptotic behaviour is translated into an infinite number of iterations within a bounded time domain. In this method, the backward integration is carried out thanks to what is called backward model, which is basically the forward model with reversed time step sign. To maintain numeral stability, the diffusion terms also have their sign reversed, giving a diffusive character to the algorithm. In this article the DBFN performance to control a primitive equation ocean model is investigated. In this kind of model non-resolved scales are modelled by diffusion operators which dissipate energy that cascade from large to small scales. Thus, in this article, the DBFN approximations and their consequences for the data assimilation system set-up are analysed. Our main result is that the DBFN may provide results which are comparable to those produced by a 4Dvar implementation with a much simpler implementation and a shorter CPU time for convergence. The conducted sensitivity tests show that the 4Dvar profits of long assimilation windows to propagate surface information downwards, and that for the DBFN, it is worth using short assimilation windows to reduce the impact of diffusion-induced errors. Moreover, the DBFN is less sensitive to the first guess than the 4Dvar.

Combining existing numerical models with data assimilation using weighted least-squares finite element methods.

PubMed

Rajaraman, Prathish K; Manteuffel, T A; Belohlavek, M; Heys, Jeffrey J

2017-01-01

A new approach has been developed for combining and enhancing the results from an existing computational fluid dynamics model with experimental data using the weighted least-squares finite element method (WLSFEM). Development of the approach was motivated by the existence of both limited experimental blood velocity in the left ventricle and inexact numerical models of the same flow. Limitations of the experimental data include measurement noise and having data only along a two-dimensional plane. Most numerical modeling approaches do not provide the flexibility to assimilate noisy experimental data. We previously developed an approach that could assimilate experimental data into the process of numerically solving the Navier-Stokes equations, but the approach was limited because it required the use of specific finite element methods for solving all model equations and did not support alternative numerical approximation methods. The new approach presented here allows virtually any numerical method to be used for approximately solving the Navier-Stokes equations, and then the WLSFEM is used to combine the experimental data with the numerical solution of the model equations in a final step. The approach dynamically adjusts the influence of the experimental data on the numerical solution so that more accurate data are more closely matched by the final solution and less accurate data are not closely matched. The new approach is demonstrated on different test problems and provides significantly reduced computational costs compared with many previous methods for data assimilation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Multi-site assimilation of a terrestrial biosphere model (BETHY) using satellite derived soil moisture data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Mousong; Sholze, Marko

2017-04-01

We investigated the importance of soil moisture data on assimilation of a terrestrial biosphere model (BETHY) for a long time period from 2010 to 2015. Totally, 101 parameters related to carbon turnover, soil respiration, as well as soil texture were selected for optimization within a carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS). Soil moisture data from Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) product was derived for 10 sites representing different plant function types (PFTs) as well as different climate zones. Uncertainty of SMOS soil moisture data was also estimated using triple collocation analysis (TCA) method by comparing with ASCAT dataset and BETHY forward simulation results. Assimilation of soil moisture to the system improved soil moisture as well as net primary productivity(NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) when compared with soil moisture derived from in-situ measurements and fluxnet datasets. Parameter uncertainties were largely reduced relatively to prior values. Using SMOS soil moisture data for assimilation of a terrestrial biosphere model proved to be an efficient approach in reducing uncertainty in ecosystem fluxes simulation. It could be further used in regional an global assimilation work to constrain carbon dioxide concentration simulation by combining with other sources of measurements.

A reanalysis of ozone on Mars from assimilation of SPICAM observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, James A.; Lewis, Stephen R.; Patel, Manish R.; Lefèvre, Franck

2018-03-01

We have assimilated for the first time SPICAM retrievals of total ozone into a Martian global circulation model to provide a global reanalysis of the ozone cycle. Disagreement in total ozone between model prediction and assimilation is observed between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180° and at northern polar (60°N-90°N) latitudes during northern fall (LS = 150-195°). Large percentage differences in total ozone at northern fall polar latitudes identified through the assimilation process are linked with excessive northward transport of water vapour west of Tharsis and over Arabia Terra. Modelling biases in water vapour can also explain the underestimation of total ozone between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180°. Heterogeneous uptake of odd hydrogen radicals are unable to explain the outstanding underestimation of northern polar total ozone in late northern fall. Assimilation of total ozone retrievals results in alterations of the modelled spatial distribution of ozone in the southern polar winter high altitude ozone layer. This illustrates the potential use of assimilation methods in constraining total ozone where SPICAM cannot observe, in a region where total ozone is especially important for potential investigations of the polar dynamics.

POD/DEIM reduced-order strategies for efficient four dimensional variational data assimilation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ştefănescu, R., E-mail: rstefane@vt.edu; Sandu, A., E-mail: sandu@cs.vt.edu; Navon, I.M., E-mail: inavon@fsu.edu

2015-08-15

This work studies reduced order modeling (ROM) approaches to speed up the solution of variational data assimilation problems with large scale nonlinear dynamical models. It is shown that a key requirement for a successful reduced order solution is that reduced order Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions accurately represent their full order counterparts. In particular, accurate reduced order approximations are needed for the forward and adjoint dynamical models, as well as for the reduced gradient. New strategies to construct reduced order based are developed for proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) ROM data assimilation using both Galerkin and Petrov–Galerkin projections. For the first time POD, tensorialmore » POD, and discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) are employed to develop reduced data assimilation systems for a geophysical flow model, namely, the two dimensional shallow water equations. Numerical experiments confirm the theoretical framework for Galerkin projection. In the case of Petrov–Galerkin projection, stabilization strategies must be considered for the reduced order models. The new reduced order shallow water data assimilation system provides analyses similar to those produced by the full resolution data assimilation system in one tenth of the computational time.« less

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Overview and Research Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auligne, T.

2017-12-01

In 2001 NOAA/NESDIS, NOAA/NWS, NOAA/OAR, and NASA, subsequently joined by the US Navy and Air Force, came together to form the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) for the common purpose of accelerating the use of satellite data in environmental numerical prediction modeling by developing, using, and anticipating advances in numerical modeling, satellite-based remote sensing, and data assimilation methods. The primary focus was to bring these advances together to improve operational numerical model-based forecasting, under the premise that these partners have common technical and logistical challenges assimilating satellite observations into their modeling enterprises that could be better addressed through cooperative action and/or common solutions. Over the last 15 years, the JCSDA has made and continues to make major contributions to operational assimilation of satellite data. The JCSDA is a multi-agency U.S. government-owned-and-operated organization that was conceived as a venue for the several agencies NOAA, NASA, USAF and USN to collaborate on advancing the development and operational use of satellite observations into numerical model-based environmental analysis and forecasting. The primary mission of the JCSDA is to "accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction systems." This mission is fulfilled through directed research targeting the following key science objectives: Improved radiative transfer modeling; new instrument assimilation; assimilation of humidity, clouds, and precipitation observations; assimilation of land surface observations; assimilation of ocean surface observations; atmospheric composition; and chemistry and aerosols. The goal of this presentation is to briefly introduce the JCSDA's mission and vision, and to describe recent research activities across various JCSDA partners.

Assimilation of Altimeter Data into a Quasigeostrophic Model of the Gulf Stream System. Part 2; Assimilation Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Capotondi, Antonietta; Holland, William R.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

1995-01-01

The improvement in the climatological behavior of a numerical model as a consequence of the assimilation of surface data is investigated. The model used for this study is a quasigeostrophic (QG) model of the Gulf Stream region. The data that have been assimilated are maps of sea surface height that have been obtained as the superposition of sea surface height variability deduced from the Geosat altimeter measurements and a mean field constructed from historical hydrographic data. The method used for assimilating the data is the nudging technique. Nudging has been implemented in such a way as to achieve a high degree of convergence of the surface model fields toward the observations. Comparisons of the assimilation results with available in situ observations show a significant improvement in the degree of realism of the climatological model behavior, with respect to the model in which no data are assimilated. The remaining discrepancies in the model mean circulation seem to be mainly associated with deficiencies in the mean component of the surface data that are assimilated. On the other hand, the possibility of building into the model more realistic eddy characteristics through the assimilation of the surface eddy field proves very successful in driving components of the mean model circulation that are in relatively good agreement with the available observations. Comparisons with current meter time series during a time period partially overlapping the Geosat mission show that the model is able to 'correctly' extrapolate the instantaneous surface eddy signals to depths of approximately 1500 m. The correlation coefficient between current meter and model time series varies from values close to 0.7 in the top 1500 m to values as low as 0.1-0.2 in the deep ocean.

An algorithm for variational data assimilation of contact concentration measurements for atmospheric chemistry models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penenko, Alexey; Penenko, Vladimir

2014-05-01

Contact concentration measurement data assimilation problem is considered for convection-diffusion-reaction models originating from the atmospheric chemistry study. High dimensionality of models imposes strict requirements on the computational efficiency of the algorithms. Data assimilation is carried out within the variation approach on a single time step of the approximated model. A control function is introduced into the source term of the model to provide flexibility for data assimilation. This function is evaluated as the minimum of the target functional that connects its norm to a misfit between measured and model-simulated data. In the case mathematical model acts as a natural Tikhonov regularizer for the ill-posed measurement data inversion problem. This provides flow-dependent and physically-plausible structure of the resulting analysis and reduces a need to calculate model error covariance matrices that are sought within conventional approach to data assimilation. The advantage comes at the cost of the adjoint problem solution. This issue is solved within the frameworks of splitting-based realization of the basic convection-diffusion-reaction model. The model is split with respect to physical processes and spatial variables. A contact measurement data is assimilated on each one-dimensional convection-diffusion splitting stage. In this case a computationally-efficient direct scheme for both direct and adjoint problem solution can be constructed based on the matrix sweep method. Data assimilation (or regularization) parameter that regulates ratio between model and data in the resulting analysis is obtained with Morozov discrepancy principle. For the proper performance the algorithm takes measurement noise estimation. In the case of Gaussian errors the probability that the used Chi-squared-based estimate is the upper one acts as the assimilation parameter. A solution obtained can be used as the initial guess for data assimilation algorithms that assimilate outside the splitting stages and involve iterations. Splitting method stage that is responsible for chemical transformation processes is realized with the explicit discrete-analytical scheme with respect to time. The scheme is based on analytical extraction of the exponential terms from the solution. This provides unconditional positive sign for the evaluated concentrations. Splitting-based structure of the algorithm provides means for efficient parallel realization. The work is partially supported by the Programs No 4 of Presidium RAS and No 3 of Mathematical Department of RAS, by RFBR project 11-01-00187 and Integrating projects of SD RAS No 8 and 35. Our studies are in the line with the goals of COST Action ES1004.

Seasonal photosynthetic gas exchange and water-use efficiency in a constitutive CAM plant, the giant saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea).

PubMed

Bronson, Dustin R; English, Nathan B; Dettman, David L; Williams, David G

2011-11-01

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and the capacity to store large quantities of water are thought to confer high water use efficiency (WUE) and survival of succulent plants in warm desert environments. Yet the highly variable precipitation, temperature and humidity conditions in these environments likely have unique impacts on underlying processes regulating photosynthetic gas exchange and WUE, limiting our ability to predict growth and survival responses of desert CAM plants to climate change. We monitored net CO(2) assimilation (A(net)), stomatal conductance (g(s)), and transpiration (E) rates periodically over 2 years in a natural population of the giant columnar cactus Carnegiea gigantea (saguaro) near Tucson, Arizona USA to investigate environmental and physiological controls over carbon gain and water loss in this ecologically important plant. We hypothesized that seasonal changes in daily integrated water use efficiency (WUE(day)) in this constitutive CAM species would be driven largely by stomatal regulation of nighttime transpiration and CO(2) uptake responding to shifts in nighttime air temperature and humidity. The lowest WUE(day) occurred during time periods with extreme high and low air vapor pressure deficit (D(a)). The diurnal with the highest D(a) had low WUE(day) due to minimal net carbon gain across the 24 h period. Low WUE(day) was also observed under conditions of low D(a); however, it was due to significant transpiration losses. Gas exchange measurements on potted saguaro plants exposed to experimental changes in D(a) confirmed the relationship between D(a) and g(s). Our results suggest that climatic changes involving shifts in air temperature and humidity will have large impacts on the water and carbon economy of the giant saguaro and potentially other succulent CAM plants of warm desert environments.

Application of optimal data assimilation techniques in oceanography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, R.N.

Application of optimal data assimilation methods in oceanography is, if anything, more important than it is in numerical weather prediction, due to the sparsity of data. Here, a general framework is presented and practical examples taken from the author`s work are described, with the purpose of conveying to the reader some idea of the state of the art of data assimilation in oceanography. While no attempt is made to be exhaustive, references to other lines of research are included. Major challenges to the community include design of statistical error models and handling of strong nonlinearity.

Grain growth prediction based on data assimilation by implementing 4DVar on multi-phase-field model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Shin-ichi; Nagao, Hiromichi; Kasuya, Tadashi; Inoue, Junya

2017-12-01

We propose a method to predict grain growth based on data assimilation by using a four-dimensional variational method (4DVar). When implemented on a multi-phase-field model, the proposed method allows us to calculate the predicted grain structures and uncertainties in them that depend on the quality and quantity of the observational data. We confirm through numerical tests involving synthetic data that the proposed method correctly reproduces the true phase-field assumed in advance. Furthermore, it successfully quantifies uncertainties in the predicted grain structures, where such uncertainty quantifications provide valuable information to optimize the experimental design.

Assessing Extratropical Influence on Tropical Climatology and Variability with Regional Coupled Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, F.; Liu, Z.; Liu, Y.; Zhang, S.; Jacob, R. L.

2017-12-01

The Regional Coupled Data Assimilation (RCDA) method is introduced as a tool to study coupled climate dynamics and teleconnections. The RCDA method is built on an ensemble-based coupled data assimilation (CDA) system in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The RCDA method limits the data assimilation to the desired model components (e.g. atmosphere) and regions (e.g. the extratropics), and studies the ensemble-mean model response (e.g. tropical response to "observed" extratropical atmospheric variability). When applied to the extratropical influence on tropical climate, the RCDA method has shown some unique advantages, namely the combination of a fully coupled model, real-world observations and an ensemble approach. Tropical variability (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO) and climatology (e.g. asymmetric Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ) were initially thought to be determined mostly by local forcing and ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropics. Since late 20th century, numerous studies have showed that extratropical forcing could affect, or even largely determine some aspects of the tropical climate. Due to the coupled nature of the climate system, however, the challenge of determining and further quantifying the causality of extratropical forcing on the tropical climate remains. Using the RCDA method, we have demonstrated significant control of extratropical atmospheric forcing on ENSO variability in a CGCM, both with model-generated and real-world observation datasets. The RCDA method has also shown robust extratropical impact on the tropical double-ITCZ bias in a CGCM. The RCDA method has provided the first systematic and quantitative assessment of extratropical influence on tropical climatology and variability by incorporating real world observations in a CGCM.

IASI Radiance Data Assimilation in Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, K.; Hyoung-Wook, C.; Jo, Y.

2016-12-01

Korea institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) is developing NWP model with data assimilation systems. Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) system, one of the data assimilation systems, has been developed for KIAPS Integrated Model (KIM) based on cubed-sphere grid and has successfully assimilated real data. LETKF data assimilation system has been extended to 4D- LETKF which considers time-evolving error covariance within assimilation window and IASI radiance data assimilation using KPOP (KIAPS package for observation processing) with RTTOV (Radiative Transfer for TOVS). The LETKF system is implementing semi operational prediction including conventional (sonde, aircraft) observation and AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) radiance data from April. Recently, the semi operational prediction system updated radiance observations including GPS-RO, AMV, IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) data at July. A set of simulation of KIM with ne30np4 and 50 vertical levels (of top 0.3hPa) were carried out for short range forecast (10days) within semi operation prediction LETKF system with ensemble forecast 50 members. In order to only IASI impact, our experiments used only conventional and IAIS radiance data to same semi operational prediction set. We carried out sensitivity test for IAIS thinning method (3D and 4D). IASI observation number was increased by temporal (4D) thinning and the improvement of IASI radiance data impact on the forecast skill of model will expect.

Aerosol data assimilation in the chemical transport model MOCAGE during the TRAQA/ChArMEx campaign: aerosol optical depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sič, Bojan; El Amraoui, Laaziz; Piacentini, Andrea; Marécal, Virginie; Emili, Emanuele; Cariolle, Daniel; Prather, Michael; Attié, Jean-Luc

2016-11-01

In this study, we describe the development of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) assimilation module in the chemistry transport model (CTM) MOCAGE (Modèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle). Our goal is to assimilate the spatially averaged 2-D column AOD data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and to estimate improvements in a 3-D CTM assimilation run compared to a direct model run. Our assimilation system uses 3-D-FGAT (first guess at appropriate time) as an assimilation method and the total 3-D aerosol concentration as a control variable. In order to have an extensive validation dataset, we carried out our experiment in the northern summer of 2012 when the pre-ChArMEx (CHemistry and AeRosol MEditerranean EXperiment) field campaign TRAQA (TRAnsport à longue distance et Qualité de l'Air dans le bassin méditerranéen) took place in the western Mediterranean basin. The assimilated model run is evaluated independently against a range of aerosol properties (2-D and 3-D) measured by in situ instruments (the TRAQA size-resolved balloon and aircraft measurements), the satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instrument and ground-based instruments from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) network. The evaluation demonstrates that the AOD assimilation greatly improves aerosol representation in the model. For example, the comparison of the direct and the assimilated model run with AERONET data shows that the assimilation increased the correlation (from 0.74 to 0.88), and reduced the bias (from 0.050 to 0.006) and the root mean square error in the AOD (from 0.12 to 0.07). When compared to the 3-D concentration data obtained by the in situ aircraft and balloon measurements, the assimilation consistently improves the model output. The best results as expected occur when the shape of the vertical profile is correctly simulated by the direct model. We also examine how the assimilation can influence the modelled aerosol vertical distribution. The results show that a 2-D continuous AOD assimilation can improve the 3-D vertical profile, as a result of differential horizontal transport of aerosols in the model.

Rates of nitrification and nitrate assimilation in the Changjiang River estuary and adjacent waters based on the nitrogen isotope dilution method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wentao; Yu, Zhiming; Wu, Zaixing; Song, Shuqun; Song, Xiuxian; Yuan, Yongquan; Cao, Xihua

2018-07-01

Being supplied from both terrestrial inputs and internal regeneration, nitrate is usually in excess in the Changjiang River estuary (CRE) and adjacent waters (CREAW). As significant reactions in the nitrogen cycle, nitrate assimilation and nitrification rates were calculated by field incubation experiments following the isotope dilution method during June and November 2014. Besides this, distribution of other field parameters in the CREAW were also investigated. The results showed that the nitrate assimilation rates were higher in nearshore areas and lower in offshore areas. The nitrate assimilation rates were also higher during June, at 0.3-11.9 μmol L-1 d-1, whereas the rates were 0-3.2 μmol L-1 d-1 in November. The highest rate was observed in the surface water of the estuary, where the chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration reached 11.02 μg L-1. In addition, the phytoplankton community structure affected the nitrate assimilation rates, and dinoflagellates presented weaker nitrate assimilation abilities than those of diatoms. By contrast, the nitrification rates were higher in nearshore areas in June but higher in offshore areas in November. The nitrification rates were 0-4.1 μmol L-1 d-1 and 0-3.6 μmol L-1 d-1 in June and November, respectively. At most sites, the nitrification rates were positively correlated with the ammonium concentrations and were higher in November, which might be attributable to the higher temperature. Moreover, a theoretical calculation was used to study the regional nitrate flux throughout the vertical water column. The results showed that a gradual supplement from nitrification might replenish the nitrate consumed by assimilation far from the CRE. The overall result was that terrestrial input remained the primary source of estuarine nitrate; however, the role of internal nitrate regeneration, which would be effective for primary production in the CREAW, should also be highlighted as a source of nitrate, especially in offshore areas.

Examining Dense Data Usage near the Regions with Severe Storms in All-Sky Microwave Radiance Data Assimilation and Impacts on GEOS Hurricane Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Min-Jeong; Jin, Jianjun; McCarty, Will; El Akkraoui, Amal; Todling, Ricardo; Gelaro, Ron

2018-01-01

Many numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers assimilate radiances affected by clouds and precipitation from microwave sensors, with the expectation that these data can provide critical constraints on meteorological parameters in dynamically sensitive regions to make significant impacts on forecast accuracy for precipitation. The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center assimilates all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave sensors such as all-sky GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiance in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), which includes the GEOS atmospheric model, the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) atmospheric analysis system, and the Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS). So far, most of NWP centers apply same large data thinning distances, that are used in clear-sky radiance data to avoid correlated observation errors, to all-sky microwave radiance data. For example, NASA GMAO is applying 145 km thinning distances for most of satellite radiance data including microwave radiance data in which all-sky approach is implemented. Even with these coarse observation data usage in all-sky assimilation approach, noticeable positive impacts from all-sky microwave data on hurricane track forecasts were identified in GEOS-5 system. The motivation of this study is based on the dynamic thinning distance method developed in our all-sky framework to use of denser data in cloudy and precipitating regions due to relatively small spatial correlations of observation errors. To investigate the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance on hurricane forecasts, several hurricane cases selected between 2016-2017 are examined. The dynamic thinning distance method is utilized in our all-sky approach to understand the sources and mechanisms to explain the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave radiance sensors like Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU-A), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and GMI on GEOS-5 analyses and forecasts of various hurricanes.

Assimilation of CryoSat-2 altimetry to a hydrodynamic model of the Brahmaputra river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Raphael; Nygaard Godiksen, Peter; Ridler, Marc-Etienne; Madsen, Henrik; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2016-04-01

Remote sensing provides valuable data for parameterization and updating of hydrological models, for example water level measurements of inland water bodies from satellite radar altimeters. Satellite altimetry data from repeat-orbit missions such as Envisat, ERS or Jason has been used in many studies, also synthetic wide-swath altimetry data as expected from the SWOT mission. This study is one of the first hydrologic applications of altimetry data from a drifting orbit satellite mission, namely CryoSat-2. CryoSat-2 is equipped with the SIRAL instrument, a new type of radar altimeter similar to SRAL on Sentinel-3. CryoSat-2 SARIn level 2 data is used to improve a 1D hydrodynamic model of the Brahmaputra river basin in South Asia set up in the DHI MIKE 11 software. CryoSat-2 water levels were extracted over river masks derived from Landsat imagery. After discharge calibration, simulated water levels were fitted to the CryoSat-2 data along the Assam valley by adapting cross section shapes and datums. The resulting hydrodynamic model shows accurate spatio-temporal representation of water levels, which is a prerequisite for real-time model updating by assimilation of CryoSat-2 altimetry or multi-mission data in general. For this task, a data assimilation framework has been developed and linked with the MIKE 11 model. It is a flexible framework that can assimilate water level data which are arbitrarily distributed in time and space. Different types of error models, data assimilation methods, etc. can easily be used and tested. Furthermore, it is not only possible to update the water level of the hydrodynamic model, but also the states of the rainfall-runoff models providing the forcing of the hydrodynamic model. The setup has been used to assimilate CryoSat-2 observations over the Assam valley for the years 2010 to 2013. Different data assimilation methods and localizations were tested, together with different model error representations. Furthermore, the impact of different filtering and clustering methods and error descriptions of the CryoSat-2 observations was evaluated. Performance improvement in terms of discharge and water level forecast due to the assimilation of satellite altimetry data was then evaluated. The model forecasts were also compared to climatology and persistence forecasts. Using ensemble based filters, the evaluation was done not only based on performance criteria for the central forecast such as root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), but also based on sharpness, reliability and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of the ensemble of probabilistic forecasts.

Measurement of 14CO2 Assimilation in Soils: an Experiment for the Biological Exploration of Mars

PubMed Central

Hubbard, Jerry S.; Hobby, George L.; Horowitz, Norman H.; Geiger, Paul J.; Morelli, Frank A.

1970-01-01

A method is described for the measurement of 14CO2 assimilation by microorganisms in soils. A determination involves exposing soil to 14CO2, pyrolyzing the exposed soil, trapping the organic pyrolysis products on a column of firebrick coated with CuO, combusting the trapped organics by heating, and measuring the radioactivity in the CO2 produced in the combustion. The detection of significant levels of 14C in the trapped organic fraction appears to be an unambiguous indication of biological activity. The 14CO2 which is adsorbed or exchanged into soils by nonbiological processes does not interfere. The method easily detects the 14CO2 fixed by 102 to 103 algae after light exposure for 3 to 24 hr. Assimilation of 14C is also demonstrable in dark-exposed soils containing 105 to 106 heterotrophic bacteria. Possible applications of the method in the biological exploration of Mars are discussed. Images PMID:16349879

Methods of sequential estimation for determining initial data in numerical weather prediction. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohn, S. E.

1982-01-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear differential equations, in which initial values are known incompletely and inaccurately. Observational data available at the initial time must therefore be supplemented by data available prior to the initial time, a problem known as meteorological data assimilation. A further complication in NWP is that solutions of the governing equations evolve on two different time scales, a fast one and a slow one, whereas fast scale motions in the atmosphere are not reliably observed. This leads to the so called initialization problem: initial values must be constrained to result in a slowly evolving forecast. The theory of estimation of stochastic dynamic systems provides a natural approach to such problems. For linear stochastic dynamic models, the Kalman-Bucy (KB) sequential filter is the optimal data assimilation method, for linear models, the optimal combined data assimilation-initialization method is a modified version of the KB filter.

Ocean Predictability and Uncertainty Forecasts Using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, M.; Hogan, P. J.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Ocean predictability and uncertainty are studied with an ensemble system that has been developed based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using the Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology. One of the advantages of this method is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is implicitly supplied with the ensemble avoiding the difficult task of developing tangent linear and adjoint models out of HYCOM with the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate for 4D-VAR. The flow-dependent background covariance from the ensemble will be an indispensable part in the next generation hybrid 4D-Var/ensemble data assimilation system. The predictability and uncertainty for the ocean forecasts are studied initially for the Gulf of Mexico. The results are compared with another ensemble system using Ensemble Transfer (ET) method which has been used in the Navy's operational center. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

Data Assimilation Methods on a Non-conservative Adaptive Mesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guider, Colin Thomas; Rabatel, Matthias; Carrassi, Alberto; Jones, Christopher K. R. T.

2017-04-01

Adaptive mesh methods are used to model a wide variety of physical phenomena. Some of these models, in particular those of sea ice movement, are particularly interesting in that they use a remeshing process to remove and insert mesh points at various points in their evolution. This presents a challenge in developing compatible data assimilation schemes, as the dimension of the state space we wish to estimate can change over time when these remeshings occur. In this work, we first describe a remeshing scheme for an adaptive mesh in one dimension. We then develop advanced data assimilation methods that are appropriate for such a moving and remeshed grid. We hope to extend these techniques to two-dimensional models, like the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM te{ns}. \\bibitem{ns} P. Rampal, S. Bouillon, E. Ólason, and M. Morlighem. ne{X}t{SIM}: a new {L}agrangian sea ice model. {The Cryosphere}, 10 (3): 1055-1073, 2016.

Comparison of Flow-Dependent and Static Error Correlation Models in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, K.; Stajner, I.; Pawson, S.

2003-01-01

In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Implicit assimilation for marine ecological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weir, B.; Miller, R.; Spitz, Y. H.

2012-12-01

We use a new data assimilation method to estimate the parameters of a marine ecological model. At a given point in the ocean, the estimated values of the parameters determine the behaviors of the modeled planktonic groups, and thus indicate which species are dominant. To begin, we assimilate in situ observations, e.g., the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study, the Hawaii Ocean Time-series, and Ocean Weather Station Papa. From there, we estimate the parameters at surrounding points in space based on satellite observations of ocean color. Given the variation of the estimated parameters, we divide the ocean into regions meant to represent distinct ecosystems. An important feature of the data assimilation approach is that it refines the confidence limits of the optimal Gaussian approximation to the distribution of the parameters. This enables us to determine the ecological divisions with greater accuracy.

Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bröcker, Jochen

2014-06-01

Estimating trajectories and parameters of dynamical systems from observations is a problem frequently encountered in various branches of science; geophysicists for example refer to this problem as data assimilation. Unlike as in estimation problems with exchangeable observations, in data assimilation the observations cannot easily be divided into separate sets for estimation and validation; this creates serious problems, since simply using the same observations for estimation and validation might result in overly optimistic performance assessments. To circumvent this problem, a result is presented which allows us to estimate this optimism, thus allowing for a more realistic performance assessment in data assimilation. The presented approach becomes particularly simple for data assimilation methods employing a linear error feedback (such as synchronization schemes, nudging, incremental 3DVAR and 4DVar, and various Kalman filter approaches). Numerical examples considering a high gain observer confirm the theory.

Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates.

PubMed

Bröcker, Jochen

2014-06-01

Estimating trajectories and parameters of dynamical systems from observations is a problem frequently encountered in various branches of science; geophysicists for example refer to this problem as data assimilation. Unlike as in estimation problems with exchangeable observations, in data assimilation the observations cannot easily be divided into separate sets for estimation and validation; this creates serious problems, since simply using the same observations for estimation and validation might result in overly optimistic performance assessments. To circumvent this problem, a result is presented which allows us to estimate this optimism, thus allowing for a more realistic performance assessment in data assimilation. The presented approach becomes particularly simple for data assimilation methods employing a linear error feedback (such as synchronization schemes, nudging, incremental 3DVAR and 4DVar, and various Kalman filter approaches). Numerical examples considering a high gain observer confirm the theory.

A Probabilistic Collocation Based Iterative Kalman Filter for Landfill Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiang, Z.; Zeng, L.; Wu, L.

2016-12-01

Due to the strong spatial heterogeneity of landfill, uncertainty is ubiquitous in gas transport process in landfill. To accurately characterize the landfill properties, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been employed to assimilate the measurements, e.g., the gas pressure. As a Monte Carlo (MC) based method, the EnKF usually requires a large ensemble size, which poses a high computational cost for large scale problems. In this work, we propose a probabilistic collocation based iterative Kalman filter (PCIKF) to estimate permeability in a liquid-gas coupling model. This method employs polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to represent and propagate the uncertainties of model parameters and states, and an iterative form of Kalman filter to assimilate the current gas pressure data. To further reduce the computation cost, the functional ANOVA (analysis of variance) decomposition is conducted, and only the first order ANOVA components are remained for PCE. Illustrated with numerical case studies, this proposed method shows significant superiority in computation efficiency compared with the traditional MC based iterative EnKF. The developed method has promising potential in reliable prediction and management of landfill gas production.

Generalized Background Error covariance matrix model (GEN_BE v2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Descombes, G.; Auligné, T.; Vandenberghe, F.; Barker, D. M.

2014-07-01

The specification of state background error statistics is a key component of data assimilation since it affects the impact observations will have on the analysis. In the variational data assimilation approach, applied in geophysical sciences, the dimensions of the background error covariance matrix (B) are usually too large to be explicitly determined and B needs to be modeled. Recent efforts to include new variables in the analysis such as cloud parameters and chemical species have required the development of the code to GENerate the Background Errors (GEN_BE) version 2.0 for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) community model to allow for a simpler, flexible, robust, and community-oriented framework that gathers methods used by meteorological operational centers and researchers. We present the advantages of this new design for the data assimilation community by performing benchmarks and showing some of the new features on data assimilation test cases. As data assimilation for clouds remains a challenge, we present a multivariate approach that includes hydrometeors in the control variables and new correlated errors. In addition, the GEN_BE v2.0 code is employed to diagnose error parameter statistics for chemical species, which shows that it is a tool flexible enough to involve new control variables. While the generation of the background errors statistics code has been first developed for atmospheric research, the new version (GEN_BE v2.0) can be easily extended to other domains of science and be chosen as a testbed for diagnostic and new modeling of B. Initially developed for variational data assimilation, the model of the B matrix may be useful for variational ensemble hybrid methods as well.

Generalized background error covariance matrix model (GEN_BE v2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Descombes, G.; Auligné, T.; Vandenberghe, F.; Barker, D. M.; Barré, J.

2015-03-01

The specification of state background error statistics is a key component of data assimilation since it affects the impact observations will have on the analysis. In the variational data assimilation approach, applied in geophysical sciences, the dimensions of the background error covariance matrix (B) are usually too large to be explicitly determined and B needs to be modeled. Recent efforts to include new variables in the analysis such as cloud parameters and chemical species have required the development of the code to GENerate the Background Errors (GEN_BE) version 2.0 for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) community model. GEN_BE allows for a simpler, flexible, robust, and community-oriented framework that gathers methods used by some meteorological operational centers and researchers. We present the advantages of this new design for the data assimilation community by performing benchmarks of different modeling of B and showing some of the new features in data assimilation test cases. As data assimilation for clouds remains a challenge, we present a multivariate approach that includes hydrometeors in the control variables and new correlated errors. In addition, the GEN_BE v2.0 code is employed to diagnose error parameter statistics for chemical species, which shows that it is a tool flexible enough to implement new control variables. While the generation of the background errors statistics code was first developed for atmospheric research, the new version (GEN_BE v2.0) can be easily applied to other domains of science and chosen to diagnose and model B. Initially developed for variational data assimilation, the model of the B matrix may be useful for variational ensemble hybrid methods as well.

[Simulating of carbon fluxes in bamboo forest ecosystem using BEPS model based on the LAI assimilated with Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter].

PubMed

Li, Xue Jian; Mao, Fang Jie; Du, Hua Qiang; Zhou, Guo Mo; Xu, Xiao Jun; Li, Ping Heng; Liu, Yu Li; Cui, Lu

2016-12-01

LAI is one of the most important observation data in the research of carbon cycle of forest ecosystem, and it is also an important parameter to drive process-based ecosystem model. The Moso bamboo forest (MBF) and Lei bamboo forest (LBF) were selected as the study targets. Firstly, the MODIS LAI time series data during 2014-2015 was assimilated with Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter method. Secondly, the high quality assimilated MBF LAI and LBF LAI were used as input dataset to drive BEPS model for simulating the gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and total ecosystem respiration (TER) of the two types of bamboo forest ecosystem, respectively. The modeled carbon fluxes were evaluated by the observed carbon fluxes data, and the effects of different quality LAI inputs on carbon cycle simulation were also studied. The LAI assimilated using Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter of MBF and LBF were significantly correlated with the observed LAI, with high R 2 of 0.81 and 0.91 respectively, and lower RMSE and absolute bias, which represented the great improvement of the accuracy of MODIS LAI products. With the driving of assimilated LAI, the modeled GPP, NEE, and TER were also highly correlated with the flux observation data, with the R 2 of 0.66, 0.47, and 0.64 for MBF, respectively, and 0.66, 0.45, and 0.73 for LBF, respectively. The accuracy of carbon fluxes modeled with assimilated LAI was higher than that acquired by the locally adjusted cubic-spline capping method, in which, the accuracy of mo-deled NEE for MBF and LBF increased by 11.2% and 11.8% at the most degrees, respectively.

The Impact of Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Cloud-Cleared Radiances on Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Matthew (2016) Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pei; Li, Jun; Li, Zhenglong; Lim, Agnes H. N.; Li, Jinlong; Schmit, Timothy J.; Goldberg, Mitchell D.

2017-12-01

Hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders provide high vertical resolution atmospheric sounding information that can improve the forecast skill in numerical weather prediction. Commonly, only clear radiances are assimilated, because IR sounder observations are highly affected by clouds. A cloud-clearing (CC) technique, which removes the cloud effects from an IR cloudy field of view (FOV) and derives the cloud-cleared radiances (CCRs) or clear-sky equivalent radiances, can be an alternative yet effective way to take advantage of the thermodynamic information from cloudy skies in data assimilation. This study develops a Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-based CC method for deriving Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) CCRs under partially cloudy conditions. Due to the lack of absorption bands on VIIRS, two important quality control steps are implemented in the CC process. Validation using VIIRS clear radiances indicates that the CC method can effectively obtain the CrIS CCRs for FOVs with partial cloud cover. To compare the impacts from assimilation of CrIS original radiances and CCRs, three experiments are carried out on two storm cases, Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Hurricane Matthew (2016), using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation assimilation system and Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research Version models. At the analysis time, more CrIS observations are assimilated when using CrIS CCRs than with CrIS original radiances. Comparing temperature, specific humidity, and U/V winds with radiosondes indicates that the data impacts are growing larger with longer time forecasts (beyond 72 h forecast). Hurricane track forecasts also show improvements from the assimilation of CrIS CCRs due to better weather system forecasts. The impacts of CCRs on intensity are basically neutral with mixed positive and negative results.

Development of KIAPS Observation Processing Package for Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Jeon-Ho; Chun, Hyoung-Wook; Lee, Sihye; Han, Hyun-Jun; Ha, Su-Jin

2015-04-01

The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) was founded in 2011 by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) to develop Korea's own global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system as nine year (2011-2019) project. Data assimilation team at KIAPS has been developing the observation processing system (KIAPS Package for Observation Processing: KPOP) to provide optimal observations to the data assimilation system for the KIAPS Global Model (KIAPS Integrated Model - Spectral Element method based on HOMME: KIM-SH). Currently, the KPOP is capable of processing the satellite radiance data (AMSU-A, IASI), GPS Radio Occultation (GPS-RO), AIRCRAFT (AMDAR, AIREP, and etc…), and synoptic observation (SONDE and SURFACE). KPOP adopted Radiative Transfer for TOVS version 10 (RTTOV_v10) to get brightness temperature (TB) for each channel at top of the atmosphere (TOA), and Radio Occultation Processing Package (ROPP) 1-dimensional forward module to get bending angle (BA) at each tangent point. The observation data are obtained from the KMA which has been composited with BUFR format to be converted with ODB that are used for operational data assimilation and monitoring at the KMA. The Unified Model (UM), Community Atmosphere - Spectral Element (CAM-SE) and KIM-SH model outputs are used for the bias correction (BC) and quality control (QC) of the observations, respectively. KPOP provides radiance and RO data for Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) and also provides SONDE, SURFACE and AIRCRAFT data for Three-Dimensional Variational Assimilation (3DVAR). We are expecting all of the observation type which processed in KPOP could be combined with both of the data assimilation method as soon as possible. The preliminary results from each observation type will be introduced with the current development status of the KPOP.

Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew

2003-01-01

Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis in China: Evaluation of 1 Year Period Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi; Pan, Yinong; Wang, Shuyu; Xu, Jianjun; Tang, Jianping

2017-10-01

Globally, reanalysis data sets are widely used in assessing climate change, validating numerical models, and understanding the interactions between the components of a climate system. However, due to the relatively coarse resolution, most global reanalysis data sets are not suitable to apply at the local and regional scales directly with the inadequate descriptions of mesoscale systems and climatic extreme incidents such as mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, tropical cyclones, regional droughts, and heat waves. In this study, by using a data assimilation system of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation, and a mesoscale atmospheric model of Weather Research and Forecast model, we build a regional reanalysis system. This is preliminary and the first experimental attempt to construct a high-resolution reanalysis for China main land. Four regional test bed data sets are generated for year 2013 via three widely used methods (classical dynamical downscaling, spectral nudging, and data assimilation) and a hybrid method with data assimilation coupled with spectral nudging. Temperature at 2 m, precipitation, and upper level atmospheric variables are evaluated by comparing against observations for one-year-long tests. It can be concluded that the regional reanalysis with assimilation and nudging methods can better produce the atmospheric variables from surface to upper levels, and regional extreme events such as heat waves, than the classical dynamical downscaling. Compared to the ERA-Interim global reanalysis, the hybrid nudging method performs slightly better in reproducing upper level temperature and low-level moisture over China, which improves regional reanalysis data quality.

Enhanced Assimilation of InSAR Displacement and Well Data for Groundwater Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullin, A.; Jonsson, S.

2016-12-01

Ground deformation related to aquifer exploitation can cause damage to buildings and infrastructure leading to major economic losses and sometimes even loss of human lives. Understanding reservoir behavior helps in assessing possible future ground movement and water depletion hazard of a region under study. We have developed an InSAR-based data assimilation framework for groundwater reservoirs that efficiently incorporates InSAR data for improved reservoir management and forecasts. InSAR displacement data are integrated with the groundwater modeling software MODFLOW using ensemble-based assimilation approaches. We have examined several Ensemble Methods for updating model parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and model variables like pressure head while simultaneously providing an estimate of the uncertainty. A realistic three-dimensional aquifer model was built to demonstrate the capability of the Ensemble Methods incorporating InSAR-derived displacement measurements. We find from these numerical tests that including both ground deformation and well water level data as observations improves the RMSE of the hydraulic conductivity estimate by up to 20% comparing to using only one type of observations. The RMSE estimation of this property after the final time step is similar for Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), Ensemble Smoother (ES) and ES with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA) methods. The results suggest that the high spatial and temporal resolution subsidence observations from InSAR are very helpful for accurately quantifying hydraulic parameters. We have tested the framework on several different examples and have found good performance in improving aquifer properties estimation, which should prove useful for groundwater management. Our ongoing work focuses on assimilating real InSAR-derived time series and hydraulic head data for calibrating and predicting aquifer properties of basin-wide groundwater systems.

Assimilation of satellite altimetry data in hydrological models for improved inland surface water information: Case studies from the "Sentinel-3 Hydrologic Altimetry Processor prototypE" project (SHAPE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, David; Pimentel, Rafael; Fabry, Pierre; Bercher, Nicolas; Roca, Mónica; Garcia-Mondejar, Albert; Fernandes, Joana; Lázaro, Clara; Ambrózio, Américo; Restano, Marco; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-04-01

This communication is about the Sentinel-3 Hydrologic Altimetry Processor prototypE (SHAPE) project, with a focus on the components dealing with assimilation of satellite altimetry data into hydrological models. The SHAPE research and development project started in September 2015, within the Scientific Exploitation of Operational Missions (SEOM) programme of the European Space Agency. The objectives of the project are to further develop and assess recent improvement in altimetry data, processing algorithms and methods for assimilation in hydrological models, with the overarching goal to support improved scientific use of altimetry data and improved inland water information. The objective is also to take scientific steps towards a future Inland Water dedicated processor on the Sentinel-3 ground segment. The study focuses on three main variables of interest in hydrology: river stage, river discharge and lake level. The improved altimetry data from the project is used to estimate river stage, river discharge and lake level information in a data assimilation framework using the hydrological dynamic and semi-distributed model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment). This model has been developed by SMHI and includes data assimilation module based on the Ensemble Kalman filter method. The method will be developed and assessed for a number of case studies with available in situ reference data and satellite altimetry data based on mainly the CryoSat-2 mission on which the new processor will be run; Results will be presented from case studies on the Amazon and Danube rivers and Lake Vänern (Sweden). The production of alti-hydro products (water level time series) are improved thanks to the use of water masks. This eases the geo-selection of the CryoSat-2 altimetric measurements since there are acquired from a geodetic orbit and are thus spread along the river course in space and and time. The specific processing of data from this geodetic orbit space-time pattern will be discussed as well as the subsequent possible strategies for data assimilation into models (and eventually highlight a generalized approach toward multi-mission data processing). Notably, in case of data assimilation along the course of rivers, the river slope might be estimated and compensated for, in order to produce local water level "pseudo time series" at arbitrary locations, and specifically at model's inlets.

High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup for the Eastern Range and Wallops Flight Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

2015-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, ground processing, and weather advisories, watches, and warnings at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally-driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the local forecasters. Surface winds during the transition seasons (spring and fall) pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to better forecast a variety of unique weather phenomena. Global and national scale models cannot properly resolve important local-scale weather features at each location due to their horizontal resolutions being much too coarse. Therefore, a properly tuned local data assimilation (DA) and forecast model at a high resolution is needed to provide improved capability. To accomplish this, a number of sensitivity tests were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to determine the best DA/model configuration for operational use at each of the space launch ranges to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature. A set of Perl scripts to run the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)/WRF in real-time were provided by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT). The GSI can analyze many types of observational data including satellite, radar, and conventional data. The GSI/WRF scripts use a cycled GSI system similar to the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The scripts run a 12-hour pre-cycle in which data are assimilated from 12 hours prior up to the model initialization time. A number of different model configurations were tested for both the ER and WFF by varying the horizontal resolution on which the data assimilation was done. Three different grid configurations were run for the ER and two configurations were run for WFF for archive cases from 27 Aug 2013 through 10 Nov 2013. To quantify model performance, standard model output will be compared to the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) data. The MADIS observation data will be compared to the WRF forecasts using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package. In addition, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Stage IV precipitation data will be used to validate the WRF precipitation forecasts. The author will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for each space launch range.

Estimating Convection Parameters in the GFDL CM2.1 Model Using Ensemble Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shan; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Lu, Lv; Zhu, Jiang; Zhang, Xuefeng; Wu, Xinrong; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Lin, Xiaopei

2018-04-01

Parametric uncertainty in convection parameterization is one major source of model errors that cause model climate drift. Convection parameter tuning has been widely studied in atmospheric models to help mitigate the problem. However, in a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM), convection parameters which impact the ocean as well as the climate simulation may have different optimal values. This study explores the possibility of estimating convection parameters with an ensemble coupled data assimilation method in a CGCM. Impacts of the convection parameter estimation on climate analysis and forecast are analyzed. In a twin experiment framework, five convection parameters in the GFDL coupled model CM2.1 are estimated individually and simultaneously under both perfect and imperfect model regimes. Results show that the ensemble data assimilation method can help reduce the bias in convection parameters. With estimated convection parameters, the analyses and forecasts for both the atmosphere and the ocean are generally improved. It is also found that information in low latitudes is relatively more important for estimating convection parameters. This study further suggests that when important parameters in appropriate physical parameterizations are identified, incorporating their estimation into traditional ensemble data assimilation procedure could improve the final analysis and climate prediction.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 7: Proceedings of the Workshop on the GEOS-1 Five-year Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Schubert, Siegfried; Rood, Richard

1995-01-01

The primary objective of the three-day workshop on results from the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) five-year assimilation was to provide timely feedback from the data users concerning the strengths and weaknesses of version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilated products. A second objective was to assess user satisfaction with the current methods of data access and retrieval. There were a total of 49 presentations, with about half (23) of the presentations from scientists from outside of Goddard. The first two days were devoted to applications of data: studies of the energy diagnostics, precipitation and diabatic heating, hydrological modeling and moisture transport, cloud forcing and validation, various aspects of intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability, ocean wind stress applications, and validation of surface fluxes. The last day included talks from the National Meteorological Center (NMC), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), the United States Navy, and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Development Of A Data Assimilation Capability For RAPID

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emery, C. M.; David, C. H.; Turmon, M.; Hobbs, J.; Allen, G. H.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2017-12-01

The global decline of in situ observations associated with the increasing ability to monitor surface water from space motivates the creation of data assimilation algorithms that merge computer models and space-based observations to produce consistent estimates of terrestrial hydrology that fill the spatiotemporal gaps in observations. RAPID is a routing model based on the Muskingum method that is capable of estimating river streamflow over large scales with a relatively short computing time. This model only requires limited inputs: a reach-based river network, and lateral surface and subsurface flow into the rivers. The relatively simple model physics imply that RAPID simulations could be significantly improved by including a data assimilation capability. Here we present the early developments of such data assimilation approach into RAPID. Given the linear and matrix-based structure of the model, we chose to apply a direct Kalman filter, hence allowing for the preservation of high computational speed. We correct the simulated streamflows by assimilating streamflow observations and our early results demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. Additionally, the use of in situ gauges at continental scales motivates the application of our new data assimilation scheme to altimetry measurements from existing (e.g. EnviSat, Jason 2) and upcoming satellite missions (e.g. SWOT), and ultimately apply the scheme globally.

The pre-Argo ocean reanalyses may be seriously affected by the spatial coverage of moored buoys

PubMed Central

Sivareddy, S.; Paul, Arya; Sluka, Travis; Ravichandran, M.; Kalnay, Eugenia

2017-01-01

Assimilation methods, meant to constrain divergence of model trajectory from reality using observations, do not exactly satisfy the physical laws governing the model state variables. This allows mismatches in the analysis in the vicinity of observation locations where the effect of assimilation is most prominent. These mismatches are usually mitigated either by the model dynamics in between the analysis cycles and/or by assimilation at the next analysis cycle. However, if the observations coverage is limited in space, as it was in the ocean before the Argo era, these mechanisms may be insufficient to dampen the mismatches, which we call shocks, and they may remain and grow. Here we show through controlled experiments, using real and simulated observations in two different ocean models and assimilation systems, that such shocks are generated in the ocean at the lateral boundaries of the moored buoy network. They thrive and propagate westward as Rossby waves along these boundaries. However, these shocks are essentially eliminated by the assimilation of near-homogenous global Argo distribution. These findings question the fidelity of ocean reanalysis products in the pre-Argo era. For example, a reanalysis that ignores Argo floats and assimilates only moored buoys, wrongly represents 2008 as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole year. PMID:28429748

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fer, I.; Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.; Richardson, A. D.

2016-12-01

Our ability to forecast ecosystems is limited by how well we parameterize ecosystem models. Direct measurements for all model parameters are not always possible and inverse estimation of these parameters through Bayesian methods is computationally costly. A solution to computational challenges of Bayesian calibration is to approximate the posterior probability surface using a Gaussian Process that emulates the complex process-based model. Here we report the integration of this method within an ecoinformatics toolbox, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application with two ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2.1. SIPNET is a simple model, allowing application of MCMC methods both to the model itself and to its emulator. We used both approaches to assimilate flux (CO2 and latent heat), soil respiration, and soil carbon data from Bartlett Experimental Forest. This comparison showed that emulator is reliable in terms of convergence to the posterior distribution. A 10000-iteration MCMC analysis with SIPNET itself required more than two orders of magnitude greater computation time than an MCMC run of same length with its emulator. This difference would be greater for a more computationally demanding model. Validation of the emulator-calibrated SIPNET against both the assimilated data and out-of-sample data showed improved fit and reduced uncertainty around model predictions. We next applied the validated emulator method to the ED2, whose complexity precludes standard Bayesian data assimilation. We used the ED2 emulator to assimilate demographic data from a network of inventory plots. For validation of the calibrated ED2, we compared the model to results from Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM), a novel synthesis of successional patterns in Forest Inventory and Analysis data. Our results revealed that while the pre-assimilation ED2 formulation cannot capture the emergent demographic patterns from ESM analysis, constrained model parameters controlling demographic processes increased their agreement considerably.

Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amicarelli, A.; Gariazzo, C.; Finardi, S.; Pelliccioni, A.; Silibello, C.

2008-05-01

Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM10 concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode.

Data Assimilation by delay-coordinate nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pazo, Diego; Lopez, Juan Manuel; Carrassi, Alberto

2016-04-01

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay-coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay-coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time-step. Numerical experiments with a low order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an un-optimized formulation of the delay-nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay-coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal-to-decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures.

Specification and Prediction of the Radiation Environment Using Data Assimilative VERB code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shprits, Yuri; Kellerman, Adam

2016-07-01

We discuss how data assimilation can be used for the reconstruction of long-term evolution, bench-marking of the physics based codes and used to improve the now-casting and focusing of the radiation belts and ring current. We also discuss advanced data assimilation methods such as parameter estimation and smoothing. We present a number of data assimilation applications using the VERB 3D code. The 3D data assimilative VERB allows us to blend together data from GOES, RBSP A and RBSP B. 1) Model with data assimilation allows us to propagate data to different pitch angles, energies, and L-shells and blends them together with the physics-based VERB code in an optimal way. We illustrate how to use this capability for the analysis of the previous events and for obtaining a global and statistical view of the system. 2) The model predictions strongly depend on initial conditions that are set up for the model. Therefore, the model is as good as the initial conditions that it uses. To produce the best possible initial conditions, data from different sources (GOES, RBSP A, B, our empirical model predictions based on ACE) are all blended together in an optimal way by means of data assimilation, as described above. The resulting initial conditions do not have gaps. This allows us to make more accurate predictions. Real-time prediction framework operating on our website, based on GOES, RBSP A, B and ACE data, and 3D VERB, is presented and discussed.

Sequential estimation and satellite data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.

1986-01-01

The central theme of this review article is the role that dynamics plays in estimating the state of the atmosphere and of the ocean from incomplete and noisy data. Objective analysis and inverse methods represent an attempt at relying mostly on the data and minimizing the role of dynamics in the estimation. Four-dimensional data assimilation tries to balance properly the roles of dynamical and observational information. Sequential estimation is presented as the proper framework for understanding this balance, and the Kalman filter as the ideal, optimal procedure for data assimilation. The optimal filter computes forecast error covariances of a given atmospheric or oceanic model exactly, and hence data assimilation should be closely connected with predictability studies. This connection is described, and consequences drawn for currently active areas of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, namely, mesoscale meteorology, medium and long-range forecasting, and upper-ocean dynamics.

A new data assimilation engine for physics-based thermospheric density models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, E. K.; Henney, C. J.; Hock-Mysliwiec, R.

2017-12-01

The successful assimilation of data into physics-based coupled Ionosphere-Thermosphere models requires rethinking the filtering techniques currently employed in fields such as tropospheric weather modeling. In the realm of Ionospheric-Thermospheric modeling, the estimation of system drivers is a critical component of any reliable data assimilation technique. How to best estimate and apply these drivers, however, remains an open question and active area of research. The recently developed method of Iterative Re-Initialization, Driver Estimation and Assimilation (IRIDEA) accounts for the driver/response time-delay characteristics of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere system relative to satellite accelerometer observations. Results from two near year-long simulations are shown: (1) from a period of elevated solar and geomagnetic activity during 2003, and (2) from a solar minimum period during 2007. This talk will highlight the challenges and successes of implementing a technique suited for both solar min and max, as well as expectations for improving neutral density forecasts.

Transportation assimilation revisited: New evidence from repeated cross-sectional survey data

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Based on single cross-sectional data, prior research finds evidence of “transportation assimilation” among U.S. immigrants: the length of stay in the U.S. is negatively correlated with public transit use. This paper revisits this question by using repeated cross-sectional data, and examines the trend of transportation assimilation over time. Methods and results Using 1980, 1990, 2000 1% census and 2010 (1%) American Community Survey, I examine the relationship between the length of stay in the U.S. and public transit ridership among immigrants. I first run regressions separately in four data sets: I regress public transit ridership on the length of stay, controlling for other individual and geographic variables. I then compare the magnitudes of the relationship in four regressions. To study how the rate of transportation assimilation changes over time, I pool the data set and regress public transit ridership on the length of stay and its interactions with year dummies to compare the coefficients across surveys. Results confirm the conclusion of transportation assimilation: as the length of stay in the U.S. increases, an immigrant’s public transit use decreases. However, the repeated cross-section analysis suggests the assimilation rate has been decreasing in the past few decades. Conclusions This paper finds evidence of transportation assimilation: immigrants become less likely to ride public transit as the length of stay in the U.S. increases. The assimilation rate, however, has been decreasing over time. This paper finds that the rate of public transit ridership among new immigrants upon arrival, the geographic distribution of immigrants, and the changing demographics of the U.S. immigrants play roles in affecting the trend of transportation assimilation. PMID:29668676

Comparison of Surface Ground Temperature from Satellite Observations and the Off-Line Land Surface GEOS Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, R.; Houser, P.; Joiner, J.

1998-01-01

The surface ground temperature (Tg) is an important meteorological variable, because it represents an integrated thermal state of the land surface determined by a complex surface energy budget. Furthermore, Tg affects both the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. Through these fluxes. the surface budget is coupled with the atmosphere above. Accurate Tg data are useful for estimating the surface radiation budget and fluxes, as well as soil moisture. Tg is not included in conventional synoptical weather station reports. Currently, satellites provide Tg estimates globally. It is necessary to carefully consider appropriate methods of using these satellite data in a data assimilation system. Recently, an Off-line Land surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) system was implemented at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA-GSFC. One of the goals of OLGA is to assimilate satellite-derived Tg data. Prior to the Tg assimilation, a thorough investigation of satellite- and model-derived Tg, including error estimates, is required. In this study we examine the Tg from the n Project (ISCCP DI) data and the OLGA simulations. The ISCCP data used here are 3-hourly DI data (2.5x2.5 degree resolution) for 1992 summer months (June, July, and August) and winter months (January and February). The model Tg for the same periods were generated by OLGA. The forcing data for this OLGA 1992 simulation were generated from the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) at Data Assimilation Office NASA-GSFC. We examine the discrepancies between ISCCP and OLGA Tg with a focus on its spatial and temporal characteristics, particularly on the diurnal cycle. The error statistics in both data sets, including bias, will be estimated. The impact of surface properties, including vegetation cover and type, topography, etc, on the discrepancies will be addressed.

Comparison of different filter methods for data assimilation in the unsaturated zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Natascha; Berkhahn, Simon; Erdal, Daniel; Neuweiler, Insa

2016-04-01

The unsaturated zone is an important compartment, which plays a role for the division of terrestrial water fluxes into surface runoff, groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration. For data assimilation in coupled systems it is therefore important to have a good representation of the unsaturated zone in the model. Flow processes in the unsaturated zone have all the typical features of flow in porous media: Processes can have long memory and as observations are scarce, hydraulic model parameters cannot be determined easily. However, they are important for the quality of model predictions. On top of that, the established flow models are highly non-linear. For these reasons, the use of the popular Ensemble Kalman filter as a data assimilation method to estimate state and parameters in unsaturated zone models could be questioned. With respect to the long process memory in the subsurface, it has been suggested that iterative filters and smoothers may be more suitable for parameter estimation in unsaturated media. We test the performance of different iterative filters and smoothers for data assimilation with a focus on parameter updates in the unsaturated zone. In particular we compare the Iterative Ensemble Kalman Filter and Smoother as introduced by Bocquet and Sakov (2013) as well as the Confirming Ensemble Kalman Filter and the modified Restart Ensemble Kalman Filter proposed by Song et al. (2014) to the original Ensemble Kalman Filter (Evensen, 2009). This is done with simple test cases generated numerically. We consider also test examples with layering structure, as a layering structure is often found in natural soils. We assume that observations are water content, obtained from TDR probes or other observation methods sampling relatively small volumes. Particularly in larger data assimilation frameworks, a reasonable balance between computational effort and quality of results has to be found. Therefore, we compare computational costs of the different methods as well as the quality of open loop model predictions and the estimated parameters. Bocquet, M. and P. Sakov, 2013: Joint state and parameter estimation with an iterative ensemble Kalman smoother, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 20(5): 803-818. Evensen, G., 2009: Data assimilation: The ensemble Kalman filter. Springer Science & Business Media. Song, X.H., L.S. Shi, M. Ye, J.Z. Yang and I.M. Navon, 2014: Numerical comparison of iterative ensemble Kalman filters for unsaturated flow inverse modeling. Vadose Zone Journal 13(2), 10.2136/vzj2013.05.0083.

Global SWOT Data Assimilation of River Hydrodynamic Model; the Twin Simulation Test of CaMa-Flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeshima, D.; Yamazaki, D.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

CaMa-Flood is a global scale model for simulating hydrodynamics in large scale rivers. It can simulate river hydrodynamics such as river discharge, flooded area, water depth and so on by inputting water runoff derived from land surface model. Recently many improvements at parameters or terrestrial data are under process to enhance the reproducibility of true natural phenomena. However, there are still some errors between nature and simulated result due to uncertainties in each model. SWOT (Surface water and Ocean Topography) is a satellite, which is going to be launched in 2021, can measure open water surface elevation. SWOT observed data can be used to calibrate hydrodynamics model at river flow forecasting and is expected to improve model's accuracy. Combining observation data into model to calibrate is called data assimilation. In this research, we developed data-assimilated river flow simulation system in global scale, using CaMa-Flood as river hydrodynamics model and simulated SWOT as observation data. Generally at data assimilation, calibrating "model value" with "observation value" makes "assimilated value". However, the observed data of SWOT satellite will not be available until its launch in 2021. Instead, we simulated the SWOT observed data using CaMa-Flood. Putting "pure input" into CaMa-Flood produce "true water storage". Extracting actual daily swath of SWOT from "true water storage" made simulated observation. For "model value", we made "disturbed water storage" by putting "noise disturbed input" to CaMa-Flood. Since both "model value" and "observation value" are made by same model, we named this twin simulation. At twin simulation, simulated observation of "true water storage" is combined with "disturbed water storage" to make "assimilated value". As the data assimilation method, we used ensemble Kalman filter. If "assimilated value" is closer to "true water storage" than "disturbed water storage", the data assimilation can be marked effective. Also by changing the input disturbance of "disturbed water storage", acceptable rate of uncertainty at the input may be discussed.

Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research (CG/AR) Quarterly Report Number 21

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-30

ended April 30. Research activity and/or results Dr. Yoo-Jeong Noh C3VP/CLEX-10 satellite and aircraft data analysis The manuscript that was...a contractor to the National Environmental Satellite , Data , & Information Service’s (NESDIS) Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) at the World Weather...cira.colostate.edu Data Assimilation Methods Environmental Modeling and Assimilation Forsythe John CIRA forsythe@cira.colostate.edu Satellite

Do Assimilated Drifter Velocities Improve Lagrangian Predictability in an Operational Ocean Model?

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

extended Kalman filter . Molcard et al. (2005) used a statistical method to cor- relate model and drifter velocities. Taillandier et al. (2006) describe the... temperature and salinity observations. Trajectory angular differ- ences are also reduced. 1. Introduction The importance of Lagrangian forecasts was seen... Temperature , salinity, and sea surface height (SSH, measured along-track by satellite altimeters) observa- tions are typically assimilated in

Bioluminescence-Based Method for Measuring Assimilable Organic Carbon in Pretreatment Water for Reverse Osmosis Membrane Desalination ▿

PubMed Central

Weinrich, Lauren A.; Schneider, Orren D.; LeChevallier, Mark W.

2011-01-01

A bioluminescence-based assimilable organic carbon (AOC) test was developed for determining the biological growth potential of seawater within the reverse osmosis desalination pretreatment process. The test uses Vibrio harveyi, a marine organism that exhibits constitutive luminescence and is nutritionally robust. AOC was measured in both a pilot plant and a full-scale desalination plant pretreatment. PMID:21148685

Leading Change: College-School Collaboration to Assimilate New Administrative Software for an Arab High School in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arar, Khalid

2016-01-01

The study traced the assimilation of new administrative software in an Arab school, assisted by collaboration between the school and an Arab academic teacher-training college in Israel. The research used a mixed-method paradigm. A questionnaire consisting of 81 items was administered to 55 of the school's teachers in two stages to elicit their…

A Multi-Level Investigation into the Antecedents of Enterprise Architecture (EA) Assimilation in the U.S. Federal Government: A Longitudinal Mixed Methods Research Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Makiya, George K.

2012-01-01

This dissertation reports on a multi-dimensional longitudinal investigation of the factors that influence Enterprise Architecture (EA) diffusion and assimilation within the U.S. federal government. The study uses publicly available datasets of 123 U.S. federal departments and agencies, as well as interview data among CIOs and EA managers within…

Assimilation of sea ice concentration data in the Arctic via DART/CICE5 in the CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Bitz, C. M.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hendricks, J.; Hoar, T. J.; Raeder, K.

2016-12-01

Arctic sea ice cover has been experiencing significant reduction in the past few decades. Climate models predict that the Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in late summer within a few decades. Better sea ice prediction is crucial for regional and global climate prediction that are vital to human activities such as maritime shipping and subsistence hunting, as well as wildlife protection as animals face habitat loss. The physical processes involved with the persistence and re-emergence of sea ice cover are found to extend the predictability of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness at the regional scale up to several years. This motivates us to investigate sea ice predictability stemming from initial values of the sea ice cover. Data assimilation is a useful technique to combine observations and model forecasts to reconstruct the states of sea ice in the past and provide more accurate initial conditions for sea ice prediction. This work links the most recent version of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE5) within the Community Earth System Model version 1.5 (CESM1.5) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The linked DART/CICE5 is ideal to assimilate multi-scale and multivariate sea ice observations using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The study is focused on the assimilation of SIC data that impact SIC, sea ice thickness, and snow thickness. The ensemble sea ice model states are constructed by introducing uncertainties in atmospheric forcing and key model parameters. The ensemble atmospheric forcing is a reanalysis product generated with DART and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). We also perturb two model parameters that are found to contribute significantly to the model uncertainty in previous studies. This study applies perfect model observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to investigate data assimilation algorithms and post-processing methods. One of the ensemble members of a CICE5 free run is chosen as the truth. Daily synthetic observations are obtained by adding 15% random noise to the truth. Experiments assimilating the synthetic observations are then conducted to test the effectiveness of different data assimilation algorithms (e.g., localization and inflation) and post-processing methods (e.g., how to distribute the total increment of SIC into each ice thickness category).

Does Ocean Color Data Assimilation Improve Estimates of Global Ocean Inorganic Carbon?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson

2012-01-01

Ocean color data assimilation has been shown to dramatically improve chlorophyll abundances and distributions globally and regionally in the oceans. Chlorophyll is a proxy for phytoplankton biomass (which is explicitly defined in a model), and is related to the inorganic carbon cycle through the interactions of the organic carbon (particulate and dissolved) and through primary production where inorganic carbon is directly taken out of the system. Does ocean color data assimilation, whose effects on estimates of chlorophyll are demonstrable, trickle through the simulated ocean carbon system to produce improved estimates of inorganic carbon? Our emphasis here is dissolved inorganic carbon, pC02, and the air-sea flux. We use a sequential data assimilation method that assimilates chlorophyll directly and indirectly changes nutrient concentrations in a multi-variate approach. The results are decidedly mixed. Dissolved organic carbon estimates from the assimilation model are not meaningfully different from free-run, or unassimilated results, and comparisons with in situ data are similar. pC02 estimates are generally worse after data assimilation, with global estimates diverging 6.4% from in situ data, while free-run estimates are only 4.7% higher. Basin correlations are, however, slightly improved: r increase from 0.78 to 0.79, and slope closer to unity at 0.94 compared to 0.86. In contrast, air-sea flux of C02 is noticeably improved after data assimilation. Global differences decline from -0.635 mol/m2/y (stronger model sink from the atmosphere) to -0.202 mol/m2/y. Basin correlations are slightly improved from r=O.77 to r=0.78, with slope closer to unity (from 0.93 to 0.99). The Equatorial Atlantic appears as a slight sink in the free-run, but is correctly represented as a moderate source in the assimilation model. However, the assimilation model shows the Antarctic to be a source, rather than a modest sink and the North Indian basin is represented incorrectly as a sink rather than the source indicated by the free-run model and data estimates.

Farmland Drought Evaluation Based on the Assimilation of Multi-Temporal Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data into AquaCrop Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Guijun; Yang, Hao; Jin, Xiuliang; Pignatti, Stefano; Casa, Faffaele; Silverstro, Paolo Cosmo

2016-08-01

Drought is the most costly natural disasters in China and all over the world. It is very important to evaluate the drought-induced crop yield losses and further improve water use efficiency at regional scale. Firstly, crop biomass was estimated by the combined use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical remote sensing data. Then the estimated biophysical variable was assimilated into crop growth model (FAO AquaCrop) by the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method from farmland scale to regional scale.At farmland scale, the most important crop parameters of AquaCrop model were determined to reduce the used parameters in assimilation procedure. The Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) method was used for assessing the contribution of different crop parameters to model output. Moreover, the AquaCrop model was calibrated using the experiment data in Xiaotangshan, Beijing.At regional scale, spatial application of our methods were carried out and validated in the rural area of Yangling, Shaanxi Province, in 2014. This study will provide guideline to make irrigation decision of balancing of water consumption and yield loss.

Observability of global rivers with future SWOT observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Colby; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric

2017-04-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is designed to provide global observations of water surface elevation and slope from which river discharge can be estimated using a data assimilation system. This mission will provide increased spatial and temporal coverage compared to current altimeters, with an expected accuracy for water level elevations of 10 cm on rivers greater than 100 m wide. Within the 21-day repeat cycle, a river reach will be observed 2-4 times on average. Due to the relationship between the basin orientation and the orbit, these observations are not evenly distributed in time, which will impact the derived discharge values. There is, then, a need for a better understanding of how the mission will observe global river basins. In this study, we investigate how SWOT will observe global river basins and how the temporal and spatial sampling impacts the discharge estimated from assimilation. SWOT observations can be assimilated using the Inverse Streamflow Routing (ISR) model of Pan and Wood [2013] with a fixed interval Kalman smoother. Previous work has shown that the ISR assimilation method can be used to reproduce the spatial and temporal dynamics of discharge within many global basins: however, this performance was strongly impacted by the spatial and temporal availability of discharge observations. In this study, we apply the ISR method to 32 global basins with different geometries and crossing patterns for the future orbit, assimilating theoretical SWOT-retrieved "gauges". Results show that the model performance varies significantly across basins and is driven by the orientation, flow distance, and travel time in each. Based on these properties, we quantify the "observability" of each basin and relate this to the performance of the assimilation. Applying this metric globally to a large variety of basins we can gain a better understanding of the impact that SWOT observations may have across basin scales. By determining the availability of SWOT observations in this manner, hydrologic data assimilation approaches like ISR can be optimized to provide useful discharge estimates in sparsely gauged regions where spatially and temporally consistent discharge records are most valuable. Pan, M; Wood, E F 2013 Inverse streamflow routing, HESS 17(11):4577-4588

Dynamic Tsunami Data Assimilation (DTDA) Based on Green's Function: Theory and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Satake, K.; Gusman, A. R.; Maeda, T.

2017-12-01

Tsunami data assimilation estimates the tsunami arrival time and height at Points of Interest (PoIs) by assimilating tsunami data observed offshore into a numerical simulation, without the need of calculating initial sea surface height at the source (Maeda et al., 2015). The previous tsunami data assimilation has two main problems: one is that it requires quite large calculating time because the tsunami wavefield of the whole interested region is computed continuously; another is that it relies on dense observation network such as Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) in Japan or Cascadia Initiative (CI) in North America (Gusman et al., 2016), which is not practical for some area. Here we propose a new approach based on Green's function to speed up the tsunami data assimilation process and to solve the problem of sparse observation: Dynamic Tsunami Data Assimilation (DTDA). If the residual between the observed and calculated tsunami height is not zero, there will be an assimilation response around the station, usually a Gaussian-distributed sea surface displacement. The Green's function Gi,j is defined as the tsunami waveform at j-th grid caused by the propagation of assimilation response at i-th station. Hence, the forecasted waveforms at PoIs are calculated as the superposition of the Green's functions. In case of sparse observation, we could use the aircraft and satellite observations. The previous assimilation approach is not practical because it costs much time to assimilate moving observation, and to compute the tsunami wavefield of the interested region. In contrast, DTDA synthesizes the waveforms quickly as long as the Green's functions are calculated in advance. We apply our method to a hypothetic earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra Island similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake. Currently there is no dense observation network in that area, making it difficult for the previous assimilation approach. We used DTDA with aircraft and satellite observation above the Indian Ocean, to forecast the tsunami in Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. It shows that DTDA provides reliable tsunami forecasting for these countries, and the tsunami early warning can be issued half an hour before the tsunami arrives to reduce the damage along the coast.

A joint data assimilation system (Tan-Tracker) to simultaneously estimate surface CO2 fluxes and 3-D atmospheric CO2 concentrations from observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, X.; Xie, Z.; Liu, Y.; Cai, Z.; Fu, Y.; Zhang, H.; Feng, L.

2014-12-01

We have developed a novel framework ("Tan-Tracker") for assimilating observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, based on the POD-based (proper orthogonal decomposition) ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation method (PODEn4DVar). The high flexibility and the high computational efficiency of the PODEn4DVar approach allow us to include both the atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the surface CO2 fluxes as part of the large state vector to be simultaneously estimated from assimilation of atmospheric CO2 observations. Compared to most modern top-down flux inversion approaches, where only surface fluxes are considered as control variables, one major advantage of our joint data assimilation system is that, in principle, no assumption on perfect transport models is needed. In addition, the possibility for Tan-Tracker to use a complete dynamic model to consistently describe the time evolution of CO2 surface fluxes (CFs) and the atmospheric CO2 concentrations represents a better use of observation information for recycling the analyses at each assimilation step in order to improve the forecasts for the following assimilations. An experimental Tan-Tracker system has been built based on a complete augmented dynamical model, where (1) the surface atmosphere CO2 exchanges are prescribed by using a persistent forecasting model for the scaling factors of the first-guess net CO2 surface fluxes and (2) the atmospheric CO2 transport is simulated by using the GEOS-Chem three-dimensional global chemistry transport model. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) for assimilating synthetic in situ observations of surface CO2 concentrations are carefully designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the Tan-Tracker system. In particular, detailed comparisons are made with its simplified version (referred to as TT-S) with only CFs taken as the prognostic variables. It is found that our Tan-Tracker system is capable of outperforming TT-S with higher assimilation precision for both CO2 concentrations and CO2 fluxes, mainly due to the simultaneous estimation of CO2 concentrations and CFs in our Tan-Tracker data assimilation system. A experiment for assimilating the real dry-air column CO2 retrievals (XCO2) from the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observation Satellite (GOSAT) further demonstrates its potential wide applications.

Quantitative impact of aerosols on numerical weather prediction. Part II: Impacts to IR radiance assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquis, J. W.; Campbell, J. R.; Oyola, M. I.; Ruston, B. C.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

This is part II of a two-part series examining the impacts of aerosol particles on weather forecasts. In this study, the aerosol indirect effects on weather forecasts are explored by examining the temperature and moisture analysis associated with assimilating dust contaminated hyperspectral infrared radiances. The dust induced temperature and moisture biases are quantified for different aerosol vertical distribution and loading scenarios. The overall impacts of dust contamination on temperature and moisture forecasts are quantified over the west coast of Africa, with the assistance of aerosol retrievals from AERONET, MPL, and CALIOP. At last, methods for improving hyperspectral infrared data assimilation in dust contaminated regions are proposed.

GPS=A Good Candidate for Data Assimilation?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poli, P.; Joiner, J.; Kursinski, R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) enables positioning anywhere about our planet. The microwave signals sent by the 24 transmitters are sensitive to the atmosphere. Using the radio occultation technique, it is possible to perform soundings, with a Low Earth Orbiter (700 km) GPS receiver. The insensitiveness to clouds and aerosols, the relatively high vertical resolution (1.5 km), the self-calibration and stability of the GPS make it a priori a potentially good observing system candidate for data assimilation. A low-computing cost simple method to retrieve both temperature and humidity will be presented. Comparisons with radiosonde show the capability of the GPS to resolve the tropopause. Options for using GPS for data assimilation and remaining issues will be discussed.

Data assimialation for real-time prediction and reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shprits, Y.; Kellerman, A. C.; Podladchikova, T.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Ghil, M.

2015-12-01

We discuss the how data assimilation can be used for the analysis of individual satellite anomalies, development of long-term evolution reconstruction that can be used for the specification models, and use of data assimilation to improve the now-casting and focusing of the radiation belts. We also discuss advanced data assimilation methods such as parameter estimation and smoothing.The 3D data assimilative VERB allows us to blend together data from GOES, RBSP A and RBSP B. Real-time prediction framework operating on our web site based on GOES, RBSP A, B and ACE data and 3D VERB is presented and discussed. In this paper we present a number of application of the data assimilation with the VERB 3D code. 1) Model with data assimilation allows to propagate data to different pitch angles, energies, and L-shells and blends them together with the physics based VERB code in an optimal way. We illustrate how we use this capability for the analysis of the previous events and for obtaining a global and statistical view of the system. 2) The model predictions strongly depend on initial conditions that are set up for the model. Therefore the model is as good as the initial conditions that it uses. To produce the best possible initial condition data from different sources ( GOES, RBSP A, B, our empirical model predictions based on ACE) are all blended together in an optimal way by means of data assimilation as described above. The resulting initial condition does not have gaps. That allows us to make a more accurate predictions.

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 6: A multiyear assimilation with the GEOS-1 system: Overview and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Schubert, Siegfried; Rood, Richard; Park, Chung-Kyu; Wu, Chung-Yu; Kondratyeva, Yelena; Molod, Andrea; Takacs, Lawrence; Seablom, Michael; Higgins, Wayne

1995-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center has produced a multiyear global assimilated data set with version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS). One of the main goals of this project, in addition to benchmarking the GEOS-1 system, was to produce a research quality data set suitable for the study of short-term climate variability. The output, which is global and gridded, includes all prognostic fields and a large number of diagnostic quantities such as precipitation, latent heating, and surface fluxes. Output is provided four times daily with selected quantities available eight times per day. Information about the observations input to the GEOS-1 DAS is provided in terms of maps of spatial coverage, bar graphs of data counts, and tables of all time periods with significant data gaps. The purpose of this document is to serve as a users' guide to NASA's first multiyear assimilated data set and to provide an early look at the quality of the output. Documentation is provided on all the data archives, including sample read programs and methods of data access. Extensive comparisons are made with the corresponding operational European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses, as well as various in situ and satellite observations. This document is also intended to alert users of the data about potential limitations of assimilated data, in general, and the GEOS-1 data, in particular. Results are presented for the period March 1985-February 1990.

Unscented Kalman filter assimilation of time-lapse self-potential data for monitoring solute transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Yi-an; Liu, Lanbo; Zhu, Xiaoxiong

2017-08-01

Monitoring the extent and evolution of contaminant plumes in local and regional groundwater systems from existing landfills is critical in contamination control and remediation. The self-potential survey is an efficient and economical nondestructive geophysical technique that can be used to investigate underground contaminant plumes. Based on the unscented transform, we have built a Kalman filtering cycle to conduct time-lapse data assimilation for monitoring the transport of solute based on the solute transport experiment using a bench-scale physical model. The data assimilation was formed by modeling the evolution based on the random walk model and observation correcting based on the self-potential forward. Thus, monitoring self-potential data can be inverted by the data assimilation technique. As a result, we can reconstruct the dynamic process of the contaminant plume instead of using traditional frame-to-frame static inversion, which may cause inversion artifacts. The data assimilation inversion algorithm was evaluated through noise-added synthetic time-lapse self-potential data. The result of the numerical experiment shows validity, accuracy and tolerance to the noise of the dynamic inversion. To validate the proposed algorithm, we conducted a scaled-down sandbox self-potential observation experiment to generate time-lapse data that closely mimics the real-world contaminant monitoring setup. The results of physical experiments support the idea that the data assimilation method is a potentially useful approach for characterizing the transport of contamination plumes using the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) data assimilation technique applied to field time-lapse self-potential data.

Bioavailability of particle-associated silver, cadmium, and zinc to the estuarine amphipod Leptocheirus plumulosus through dietary ingestion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlekat, C.E.; Decho, Alan W.; Chandler, G.T.

2000-01-01

We conducted experiments to determine effects of particle type on assimilatory metal bioavailability to Leptocheirus plumulosus, an infaunal, estuarine amphipod that is commonly used in sediment toxicity tests. The following particles were used to represent natural food items encountered by this surface-deposit and suspension-feeding amphipod: bacterial exopolymeric sediment coatings, polymeric coatings made from Spartina alterniflora extract, amorphous iron oxide coatings, the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum, the chlorophyte Dunaliella tertiolecta, processed estuarine sediment, and fresh estuarine sediment. Bioavailability of the gamma-emitting radioisotopes 110mAg, 109Cd, and 65Zn was measured as the efficiency with which L. plumulosus assimilated metals from particles using pulse-chase methods. Ag and Cd assimilation efficiencies were highest from bacterial exopolymeric coatings. Zn assimilation efficiency exhibited considerable interexperimental variation; the highest Zn assimilation efficiencies were measured from phytoplankton and processed sediment. In general, Ag and Cd assimilation efficiencies from phytoplankton were low and not related to the proportion of metal associated with cell cytosol or cytoplasm, a phenomenon reported for other particle-ingesting invertebrates. Amphipod digestive processes explain differences in Ag and Cd assimilation efficiencies between exopolymeric coatings and phytoplankton. Results highlight the importance of labile polymeric organic carbon sediment coatings in dietary metals uptake by this benthic invertebrate, rather than recalcitrant organic carbon, mineralogical features such as iron oxides, or phytoplankton.

Assimilation of Ocean-Color Plankton Functional Types to Improve Marine Ecosystem Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavatta, S.; Brewin, R. J. W.; Skákala, J.; Polimene, L.; de Mora, L.; Artioli, Y.; Allen, J. I.

2018-02-01

We assimilated phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) derived from ocean color into a marine ecosystem model, to improve the simulation of biogeochemical indicators and emerging properties in a shelf sea. Error-characterized chlorophyll concentrations of four PFTs (diatoms, dinoflagellates, nanoplankton, and picoplankton), as well as total chlorophyll for comparison, were assimilated into a physical-biogeochemical model of the North East Atlantic, applying a localized Ensemble Kalman filter. The reanalysis simulations spanned the years 1998-2003. The skill of the reference and reanalysis simulations in estimating ocean color and in situ biogeochemical data were compared by using robust statistics. The reanalysis outperformed both the reference and the assimilation of total chlorophyll in estimating the ocean-color PFTs (except nanoplankton), as well as the not-assimilated total chlorophyll, leading the model to simulate better the plankton community structure. Crucially, the reanalysis improved the estimates of not-assimilated in situ data of PFTs, as well as of phosphate and pCO2, impacting the simulation of the air-sea carbon flux. However, the reanalysis increased further the model overestimation of nitrate, in spite of increases in plankton nitrate uptake. The method proposed here is easily adaptable for use with other ecosystem models that simulate PFTs, for, e.g., reanalysis of carbon fluxes in the global ocean and for operational forecasts of biogeochemical indicators in shelf-sea ecosystems.

The potential for geostationary remote sensing of NO2 to improve weather prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Mizzi, A. P.; Anderson, J. L.; Fung, I. Y.; Cohen, R. C.

2016-12-01

Observations of surface winds remain sparse making it challenging to simulate and predict the weather in circumstances of light winds that are most important for poor air quality. Direct measurements of short-lived chemicals from space might be a solution to this challenge. Here we investigate the application of data assimilation of NO­2 columns as will be observed from geostationary orbit to improve predictions and retrospective analysis of surface wind fields. Specifically, synthetic NO2 observations are sampled from a "nature run (NR)" regarded as the true atmosphere. Then NO2 observations are assimilated using EAKF methods into a "control run (CR)" which differs from the NR in the wind field. Wind errors are generated by introducing (1) errors in the initial conditions, (2) creating a model error by using two different formulations for the planetary boundary layer, (3) and by combining both of these effects. The assimilation reduces wind errors by up to 50%, indicating the prospects for future geostationary atmospheric composition measurements to improve weather forecasting are substantial. We also examine the assimilation sensitivity to the data assimilation window length. We find that due to the temporal heterogeneity of wind errors, the success of this application favors chemical observations of high frequency, such as those from geostationary platform. We also show the potential to improve soil moisture field by assimilating NO­2 columns.

Molecular characterization of a novel algal glutamine synthetase (GS) and an algal glutamate synthase (GOGAT) from the colorful outer mantle of the giant clam, Tridacna squamosa, and the putative GS-GOGAT cycle in its symbiotic zooxanthellae.

PubMed

Fam, Rachel R S; Hiong, Kum C; Choo, Celine Y L; Wong, Wai P; Chew, Shit F; Ip, Yuen K

2018-05-20

Giant clams harbor symbiotic zooxanthellae (Symbiodinium), which are nitrogen-deficient, mainly in the fleshy and colorful outer mantle. This study aimed to sequence and characterize the algal Glutamine Synthetase (GS) and Glutamate Synthase (GLT), which constitute the glutamate synthase cycle (or GS-GOGAT cycle, whereby GOGAT is the protein acronym of GLT) of nitrogen assimilation, from the outer mantle of the fluted giant clam, Tridacna squamosa. We had identified a novel GS-like cDNA coding sequence of 2325 bp, and named it as T. squamosa Symbiodinium GS1 (TSSGS1). The deduced TSSGS1 sequence had 774 amino acids with a molecular mass of 85 kDa, and displayed the characteristics of GS1 and Nucleotide Diphosphate Kinase. The cDNA coding sequence of the algal GLT, named as T. squamosa Symbiodinium GLT (TSSGLT), comprised 6399 bp, encoding a protein of 2133 amino acids and 232.4 kDa. The zooxanthellal origin of TSSGS1 and TSSGOGAT was confirmed by sequence comparison and phylogenetic analyses. Indeed, TSSGS1 and TSSGOGAT were expressed predominately in the outer mantle, which contained the majority of the zooxanthellae. Immunofluorescence microscopy confirmed the expression of TSSGS1 and TSSGOGAT in the cytoplasm and the plastids, respectively, of the zooxanthellae in the outer mantle. It can be concluded that the symbiotic zooxanthellae of T. squamosa possesses a glutamate synthase (TSSGS1-TSSGOGAT) cycle that can assimilate endogenous ammonia produced by the host clam into glutamate, which can act as a substrate for amino acid syntheses. Thus, our results provide insights into why intact giant clam-zooxanthellae associations do not excrete ammonia under normal circumstances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constitutive expression of catABC genes in the aniline-assimilating bacterium Rhodococcus species AN-22: production, purification, characterization and gene analysis of CatA, CatB and CatC

PubMed Central

Matsumura, Eitaro; Sakai, Masashi; Hayashi, Katsuaki; Murakami, Shuichiro; Takenaka, Shinji; Aoki, Kenji

2005-01-01

The aniline-assimilating bacterium Rhodococcus sp. AN-22 was found to constitutively synthesize CatB (cis,cis-muconate cycloisomerase) and CatC (muconolactone isomerase) in its cells growing on non-aromatic substrates, in addition to the previously reported CatA (catechol 1,2-dioxygenase). The bacterium maintained the specific activity of the three enzymes at an almost equal level during cultivation on succinate. CatB and CatC were purified to homogeneity and characterized. CatB was a monomer with a molecular mass of 44 kDa. The enzyme was activated by Mn2+, Co2+ and Mg2+. Native CatC was a homo-octamer with a molecular mass of 100 kDa. The enzyme was stable between pH 7.0 and 10.5 and was resistant to heating up to 90 °C. Genes coding for CatA, CatB and CatC were cloned and named catA, catB and catC respectively. The catABC genes were transcribed as one operon. The deduced amino acid sequences of CatA, CatB and CatC showed high identities with those from other Gram-positive micro-organisms. A regulator gene such as catR encoding a regulatory protein was not observed around the cat gene cluster of Rhodococcus sp. AN-22, but a possible relic of catR was found in the upstream region of catA. Reverse transcriptase-PCR and primer extension analyses showed that the transcriptional start site of the cat gene cluster was located 891 bp upstream of the catA initiation codon in the AN-22 strain growing on both aniline and succinate. Based on these data, we concluded that the bacterium constitutively transcribed the catABC genes and translated its mRNA into CatA, CatB and CatC. PMID:16156722

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 1: Method.

PubMed

Norris, Peter M; da Silva, Arlindo M

2016-07-01

A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC.

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-Resolution Cloud Observations. Part 1: Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Peter M.; Da Silva, Arlindo M.

2016-01-01

A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 1: Method

PubMed Central

Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

2018-01-01

A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC. PMID:29618847

Rain radar measurement error estimation using data assimilation in an advection-based nowcasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merker, Claire; Ament, Felix; Clemens, Marco

2017-04-01

The quantification of measurement uncertainty for rain radar data remains challenging. Radar reflectivity measurements are affected, amongst other things, by calibration errors, noise, blocking and clutter, and attenuation. Their combined impact on measurement accuracy is difficult to quantify due to incomplete process understanding and complex interdependencies. An improved quality assessment of rain radar measurements is of interest for applications both in meteorology and hydrology, for example for precipitation ensemble generation, rainfall runoff simulations, or in data assimilation for numerical weather prediction. Especially a detailed description of the spatial and temporal structure of errors is beneficial in order to make best use of the areal precipitation information provided by radars. Radar precipitation ensembles are one promising approach to represent spatially variable radar measurement errors. We present a method combining ensemble radar precipitation nowcasting with data assimilation to estimate radar measurement uncertainty at each pixel. This combination of ensemble forecast and observation yields a consistent spatial and temporal evolution of the radar error field. We use an advection-based nowcasting method to generate an ensemble reflectivity forecast from initial data of a rain radar network. Subsequently, reflectivity data from single radars is assimilated into the forecast using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. The spread of the resulting analysis ensemble provides a flow-dependent, spatially and temporally correlated reflectivity error estimate at each pixel. We will present first case studies that illustrate the method using data from a high-resolution X-band radar network.

A Variational Assimilation Method for Satellite and Conventional Data: Model 2 (version 1)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, Gary L.

1991-01-01

The Model II variational data assimilation model is the second of the four variational models designed to blend diverse meteorological data into a dynamically constrained data set. Model II differs from Model I in that it includes the thermodynamic equation as the fifth dynamical constraint. Thus, Model II includes all five of the primative equations that govern atmospheric flow for a dry atmosphere.

Simultaneous Estimation of Model State Variables and Observation and Forecast Biases Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pauwels, V. R. N.; DeLannoy, G. J. M.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.; Vereecken, H.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Data assimilation problems in glaciology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapero, Daniel

Rising sea levels due to mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica threaten to inundate coastal areas the world over. For the purposes of urban planning and hazard mitigation, policy makers would like to know how much sea-level rise can be anticipated in the next century. To make these predictions, glaciologists use mathematical models of ice sheet flow, together with remotely-sensed observations of the current state of the ice sheets. The quantities that are observable over large spatial scales are the ice surface elevation and speed, and the elevation of the underlying bedrock. There are other quantities, such as the viscosity within the ice and the friction coefficient for sliding over the bed, that are just as important in dictating how fast the glacier flows, but that are not observable at large scales using current methods. These quantities can be inferred from observations by using data assimilation methods, applied to a model of glacier flow. In this dissertation, I will describe my work on data assimilation problems in glaciology. My main contributions so far have been: computing the bed stress underneath the three biggest Greenland outlet glaciers; developing additional tools for glacier modeling and data assimilation in the form of the open-source library icepack ; and improving the statistical methodology through the user of total variation priors.

Stochastic spectral projection of electrochemical thermal model for lithium-ion cell state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagade, Piyush; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Oh, Dukjin

2017-03-01

A novel approach for integrating a pseudo-two dimensional electrochemical thermal (P2D-ECT) model and data assimilation algorithm is presented for lithium-ion cell state estimation. This approach refrains from making any simplifications in the P2D-ECT model while making it amenable for online state estimation. Though deterministic, uncertainty in the initial states induces stochasticity in the P2D-ECT model. This stochasticity is resolved by spectrally projecting the stochastic P2D-ECT model on a set of orthogonal multivariate Hermite polynomials. Volume averaging in the stochastic dimensions is proposed for efficient numerical solution of the resultant model. A state estimation framework is developed using a transformation of the orthogonal basis to assimilate the measurables with this system of equations. Effectiveness of the proposed method is first demonstrated by assimilating the cell voltage and temperature data generated using a synthetic test bed. This validated method is used with the experimentally observed cell voltage and temperature data for state estimation at different operating conditions and drive cycle protocols. The results show increased prediction accuracy when the data is assimilated every 30s. High accuracy of the estimated states is exploited to infer temperature dependent behavior of the lithium-ion cell.

Determination of ocean surface heat fluxes by a variational method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roquet, H.; Planton, S.; Gaspar, P.

1993-06-01

A new technique of determination of the "nonsolar" heat flux (sum of the latent, sensible, and net infrared fluxes) at the ocean surface is proposed. It applies when oceanic advection remains weak and thus relies on a one-dimensional modeling approach. It is based on a variational data assimilation scheme using the adjoint equation formalism. This allows to take advantage of all observed data with their error estimates. Results from experiments performed with station Papa (Gulf of Alaska) and Long-Term Upper Ocean Study (LOTUS, Sargasso Sea) data sets are discussed. The temperature profiles assimilation allows the one-dimensional model to reproduce correctly the temperature evolution at the surface and under the oceanic mixed layer at the two sites. The retrieved fluxes are compared to the fluxes calculated through classical empirical formulae. The diurnal dependence of the fluxes at the LOTUS site is particularly investigated. The results are also compared with those obtained using a simpler technique based on an iterative shooting method and allowing the assimilation of the only sea surface temperature. This second comparison reveals that the variability of the retrieved fluxes is damped when temperature in the inner ocean are assimilated. This is the case for the diurnal cycle at the LOTUS mooring. When the available current data at this site are assimilated, the diurnal variability of the retrieved fluxes is further decreased. This points out a model discrepancy in the representation of mixing processes associated to internal wave activity. The remaining part of the diurnal cycle is significant and could be due to a direct effect of air-sea temperature difference.

Mantle-circulation models with sequential data assimilation: inferring present-day mantle structure from plate-motion histories.

PubMed

Bunge, Hans-Peter; Richards, M A; Baumgardner, J R

2002-11-15

Data assimilation is an approach to studying geodynamic models consistent simultaneously with observables and the governing equations of mantle flow. Such an approach is essential in mantle circulation models, where we seek to constrain an unknown initial condition some time in the past, and thus cannot hope to use first-principles convection calculations to infer the flow history of the mantle. One of the most important observables for mantle-flow history comes from models of Mesozoic and Cenozoic plate motion that provide constraints not only on the surface velocity of the mantle but also on the evolution of internal mantle-buoyancy forces due to subducted oceanic slabs. Here we present five mantle circulation models with an assimilated plate-motion history spanning the past 120 Myr, a time period for which reliable plate-motion reconstructions are available. All models agree well with upper- and mid-mantle heterogeneity imaged by seismic tomography. A simple standard model of whole-mantle convection, including a factor 40 viscosity increase from the upper to the lower mantle and predominantly internal heat generation, reveals downwellings related to Farallon and Tethys subduction. Adding 35% bottom heating from the core has the predictable effect of producing prominent high-temperature anomalies and a strong thermal boundary layer at the base of the mantle. Significantly delaying mantle flow through the transition zone either by modelling the dynamic effects of an endothermic phase reaction or by including a steep, factor 100, viscosity rise from the upper to the lower mantle results in substantial transition-zone heterogeneity, enhanced by the effects of trench migration implicit in the assimilated plate-motion history. An expected result is the failure to account for heterogeneity structure in the deepest mantle below 1500 km, which is influenced by Jurassic plate motions and thus cannot be modelled from sequential assimilation of plate motion histories limited in age to the Cretaceous. This result implies that sequential assimilation of past plate-motion models is ineffective in studying the temporal evolution of core-mantle-boundary heterogeneity, and that a method for extrapolating present-day information backwards in time is required. For short time periods (of the order of perhaps a few tens of Myr) such a method exists in the form of crude 'backward' convection calculations. For longer time periods (of the order of a mantle overturn), a rigorous approach to extrapolating information back in time exists in the form of iterative nonlinear optimization methods that carry assimilated information into the past through the use of an adjoint mantle convection model.

Improving estimates of water resources in a semi-arid region by assimilating GRACE data into the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tangdamrongsub, Natthachet; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Gunter, Brian; Ditmar, Pavel; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Sun, Yu; Xia, Ting; Wang, Zhongjing

2016-04-01

An accurate estimate of water resources is critical for proper management of both agriculture and the local ecology, particularly in semi-arid regions where water is scarce. Imperfections in model physics, uncertainties in model land parameters and meteorological data, and the human impact on land changes often limit the accuracy of hydrological models in estimating water storages. To address this problem, this study investigated the assimilation of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach. The region considered was the Hexi Corridor of Northern China. The hydrological model used for the analysis was PCR-GLOBWB, driven by satellite-based forcing data from April 2002 to December 2010. The performance of the GRACE Data Assimilation (DA) scheme was evaluated in terms of its impact on the TWS as well as on the individual hydrological storage estimates. The capability of GRACE DA to adjust the storage level was apparent not only in the TWS but also in the groundwater component, which had annual amplitude, phase, and long-term trend estimates closer to the GRACE observations. This study also assessed the impact of considering correlated errors in GRACE-based estimates. These were derived based on the error propagation approach using the full error variance-covariance matrices provided as a part of the GRACE data product. The assessment was carried out by comparing the EnKF results after excluding (EnKF 1D) and including (EnKF 3D) error correlations with the in situ groundwater data from 5 well sites, and the in situ streamflow data from two river gauges. Both EnKF 1D and 3D improved groundwater and streamflow estimates compared to the results from the PCR-GLOBWB alone (Ensemble Open Loop, EnOL). Although EnKF 3D was inferior to 1D at some groundwater measurement locations, on average, it showed equal or greater improvement in all metrics. For example, the improvement in the correlation coefficient (average from 5 locations) was from 0.06 to 0.63 (1D) and to 0.70 (3D). The RMS difference reduced from 2.06 to 1.55 cm (1D) and 1.19 cm (3D). A modest improvement in the streamflow estimates was similar in 1D and 3D cases. In addition, results from the 9-year long GRACE DA study were used to assess the status of water resources over the Hexi Corridor. Areally-averaged values revealed that TWS, soil moisture, and groundwater storages over the region decreased with an average rate of approximately 0.3, 0.2, 0.1 cm/yr, respectively during the study period. A substantial decline in TWS (approximately -0.5 cm/yr) was seen over the Shiyang River Basin in particular, and the reduction mostly occurred in the groundwater layer. An investigation of the relationship between water resources and agriculture in the region was conducted. It showed that the groundwater consumption required to maintain the growing period in this specific basin was probably the cause of the groundwater depletion.

Predicting non-stationary algal dynamics following changes in hydrometeorological conditions using data assimilation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Seo, D. J.

2017-12-01

When water temperature (TW) increases due to changes in hydrometeorological conditions, the overall ecological conditions change in the aquatic system. The changes can be harmful to human health and potentially fatal to fish habitat. Therefore, it is important to assess the impacts of thermal disturbances on in-stream processes of water quality variables and be able to predict effectiveness of possible actions that may be taken for water quality protection. For skillful prediction of in-stream water quality processes, it is necessary for the watershed water quality models to be able to reflect such changes. Most of the currently available models, however, assume static parameters for the biophysiochemical processes and hence are not able to capture nonstationaries seen in water quality observations. In this work, we assess the performance of the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) in predicting algal dynamics following TW increase. The study area is located in the Republic of Korea where waterway change due to weir construction and drought concurrently occurred around 2012. In this work we use data assimilation (DA) techniques to update model parameters as well as the initial condition of selected state variables for in-stream processes relevant to algal growth. For assessment of model performance and characterization of temporal variability, various goodness-of-fit measures and wavelet analysis are used.

Nearest clusters based partial least squares discriminant analysis for the classification of spectral data.

PubMed

Song, Weiran; Wang, Hui; Maguire, Paul; Nibouche, Omar

2018-06-07

Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) is one of the most effective multivariate analysis methods for spectral data analysis, which extracts latent variables and uses them to predict responses. In particular, it is an effective method for handling high-dimensional and collinear spectral data. However, PLS-DA does not explicitly address data multimodality, i.e., within-class multimodal distribution of data. In this paper, we present a novel method termed nearest clusters based PLS-DA (NCPLS-DA) for addressing the multimodality and nonlinearity issues explicitly and improving the performance of PLS-DA on spectral data classification. The new method applies hierarchical clustering to divide samples into clusters and calculates the corresponding centre of every cluster. For a given query point, only clusters whose centres are nearest to such a query point are used for PLS-DA. Such a method can provide a simple and effective tool for separating multimodal and nonlinear classes into clusters which are locally linear and unimodal. Experimental results on 17 datasets, including 12 UCI and 5 spectral datasets, show that NCPLS-DA can outperform 4 baseline methods, namely, PLS-DA, kernel PLS-DA, local PLS-DA and k-NN, achieving the highest classification accuracy most of the time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon-dependent alleviation of ammonia toxicity for algae cultivation and associated mechanisms exploration.

PubMed

Lu, Qian; Chen, Paul; Addy, Min; Zhang, Renchuan; Deng, Xiangyuan; Ma, Yiwei; Cheng, Yanling; Hussain, Fida; Chen, Chi; Liu, Yuhuan; Ruan, Roger

2018-02-01

Ammonia toxicity in wastewater is one of the factors that limit the application of algae technology in wastewater treatment. This work explored the correlation between carbon sources and ammonia assimilation and applied a glucose-assisted nitrogen starvation method to alleviate ammonia toxicity. In this study, ammonia toxicity to Chlorella sp. was observed when NH 3 -N concentration reached 28.03mM in artificial wastewater. Addition of alpha-ketoglutarate in wastewater promoted ammonia assimilation, but low utilization efficiency and high cost of alpha-ketoglutarate limits its application in wastewater treatment. Comparison of three common carbon sources, glucose, citric acid, and sodium bicarbonate, indicates that in terms of ammonia assimilation, glucose is the best carbon source. Experimental results suggest that organic carbon with good ability of generating energy and hydride donor may be critical to ammonia assimilation. Nitrogen starvation treatment assisted by glucose increased ammonia removal efficiencies and algal viabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal-to-decadal predictability in the Nordic Seas and Arctic with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Counillon, Francois; Kimmritz, Madlen; Keenlyside, Noel; Wang, Yiguo; Bethke, Ingo

2017-04-01

The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model combines the Norwegian Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method. The prediction skills of different versions of the system (with 30 members) are tested in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic region. Comparing the hindcasts branched from a SST-only assimilation run with a free ensemble run of 30 members, we are able to dissociate the predictability rooted in the external forcing from the predictability harvest from SST derived initial conditions. The latter adds predictability in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the Nordic Seas regions and overall there is very little degradation or forecast drift. Combined assimilation of SST and T-S profiles further improves the prediction skill in the Nordic Seas and into the Arctic. These lead to multi-year predictability in the high-latitudes. Ongoing developments of strongly coupled assimilation (ocean and sea ice) of ice concentration in idealized twin experiment will be shown, as way to further enhance prediction skill in the Arctic.

Variational Assimilation of GOME Total-Column Ozone Satellite Data in a 2D Latitude-Longitude Tracer-Transport Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eskes, H. J.; Piters, A. J. M.; Levelt, P. F.; Allaart, M. A. F.; Kelder, H. M.

1999-10-01

A four-dimensional data-assimilation method is described to derive synoptic ozone fields from total-column ozone satellite measurements. The ozone columns are advected by a 2D tracer-transport model, using ECMWF wind fields at a single pressure level. Special attention is paid to the modeling of the forecast error covariance and quality control. The temporal and spatial dependence of the forecast error is taken into account, resulting in a global error field at any instant in time that provides a local estimate of the accuracy of the assimilated field. The authors discuss the advantages of the 4D-variational (4D-Var) approach over sequential assimilation schemes. One of the attractive features of the 4D-Var technique is its ability to incorporate measurements at later times t > t0 in the analysis at time t0, in a way consistent with the time evolution as described by the model. This significantly improves the offline analyzed ozone fields.

Spatialized Application of Remotely Sensed Data Assimilation Methods for Farmland Drought Monitoring Using Two Different Crop Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvestro, Paolo Cosmo; Casa, Raffaele; Pignatti, Stefano; Castaldi, Fabio; Yang, Hao; Guijun, Yang

2016-08-01

The aim of this work was to develop a tool to evaluate the effect of water stress on yield losses at the farmland and regional scale, by assimilating remotely sensed biophysical variables into crop growth models. Biophysical variables were retrieved from HJ1A, HJ1B and Landsat 8 images, using an algorithm based on the training of artificial neural networks on PROSAIL.For the assimilation, two crop models of differing degree of complexity were used: Aquacrop and SAFY. For Aquacrop, an optimization procedure to reduce the difference between the remotely sensed and simulated CC was developed. For the modified version of SAFY, the assimilation procedure was based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter.These procedures were tested in a spatialized application, by using data collected in the rural area of Yangling (Shaanxi Province) between 2013 and 2015Results were validated by utilizing yield data both from ground measurements and statistical survey.

Dynamic calibration of agent-based models using data assimilation.

PubMed

Ward, Jonathan A; Evans, Andrew J; Malleson, Nicolas S

2016-04-01

A widespread approach to investigating the dynamical behaviour of complex social systems is via agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we describe how such models can be dynamically calibrated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard method of data assimilation. Our goal is twofold. First, we want to present the EnKF in a simple setting for the benefit of ABM practitioners who are unfamiliar with it. Second, we want to illustrate to data assimilation experts the value of using such methods in the context of ABMs of complex social systems and the new challenges these types of model present. We work towards these goals within the context of a simple question of practical value: how many people are there in Leeds (or any other major city) right now? We build a hierarchy of exemplar models that we use to demonstrate how to apply the EnKF and calibrate these using open data of footfall counts in Leeds.

A review on reflective remote sensing and data assimilation techniques for enhanced agroecosystem modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorigo, W. A.; Zurita-Milla, R.; de Wit, A. J. W.; Brazile, J.; Singh, R.; Schaepman, M. E.

2007-05-01

During the last 50 years, the management of agroecosystems has been undergoing major changes to meet the growing demand for food, timber, fibre and fuel. As a result of this intensified use, the ecological status of many agroecosystems has been severely deteriorated. Modeling the behavior of agroecosystems is, therefore, of great help since it allows the definition of management strategies that maximize (crop) production while minimizing the environmental impacts. Remote sensing can support such modeling by offering information on the spatial and temporal variation of important canopy state variables which would be very difficult to obtain otherwise. In this paper, we present an overview of different methods that can be used to derive biophysical and biochemical canopy state variables from optical remote sensing data in the VNIR-SWIR regions. The overview is based on an extensive literature review where both statistical-empirical and physically based methods are discussed. Subsequently, the prevailing techniques of assimilating remote sensing data into agroecosystem models are outlined. The increasing complexity of data assimilation methods and of models describing agroecosystem functioning has significantly increased computational demands. For this reason, we include a short section on the potential of parallel processing to deal with the complex and computationally intensive algorithms described in the preceding sections. The studied literature reveals that many valuable techniques have been developed both for the retrieval of canopy state variables from reflective remote sensing data as for assimilating the retrieved variables in agroecosystem models. However, for agroecosystem modeling and remote sensing data assimilation to be commonly employed on a global operational basis, emphasis will have to be put on bridging the mismatch between data availability and accuracy on one hand, and model and user requirements on the other. This could be achieved by integrating imagery with different spatial, temporal, spectral, and angular resolutions, and the fusion of optical data with data of different origin, such as LIDAR and radar/microwave.

Operational Hydrological Forecasting During the Iphex-iop Campaign - Meet the Challenge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Jing; Wu, Di; Gourley, Jonathan; Zhang, Sara Q.; Crow, Wade; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Barros, Ana P.

2016-01-01

An operational streamflow forecasting testbed was implemented during the Intense Observing Period (IOP) of the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx-IOP) in May-June 2014 to characterize flood predictability in complex terrain. Specifically, hydrological forecasts were issued daily for 12 headwater catchments in the Southern Appalachians using the Duke Coupled surface-groundwater Hydrology Model (DCHM) forced by hourly atmospheric fields and QPFs (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) produced by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. Previous day hindcasts forced by radar-based QPEs (Quantitative Precipitation Estimates) were used to provide initial conditions for present day forecasts. This manuscript first describes the operational testbed framework and workflow during the IPHEx-IOP including a synthesis of results. Second, various data assimilation approaches are explored a posteriori (post-IOP) to improve operational (flash) flood forecasting. Although all flood events during the IOP were predicted by the IPHEx operational testbed with lead times of up to 6 h, significant errors of over- and, or under-prediction were identified that could be traced back to the QPFs and subgrid-scale variability of radar QPEs. To improve operational flood prediction, three data-merging strategies were pursued post-IOP: (1) the spatial patterns of QPFs were improved through assimilation of satellite-based microwave radiances into NU-WRF; (2) QPEs were improved by merging raingauge observations with ground-based radar observations using bias-correction methods to produce streamflow hindcasts and associated uncertainty envelope capturing the streamflow observations, and (3) river discharge observations were assimilated into the DCHM to improve streamflow forecasts using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the fixed-lag Ensemble Kalman Smoother (EnKS), and the Asynchronous EnKF (i.e. AEnKF) methods. Both flood hindcasts and forecasts were significantly improved by assimilating discharge observations into the DCHM. Specifically, Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) values as high as 0.98, 0.71 and 0.99 at 15-min time-scales were attained for three headwater catchments in the inner mountain region demonstrating that the assimilation of discharge observations at the basins outlet can reduce the errors and uncertainties in soil moisture at very small scales. Success in operational flood forecasting at lead times of 6, 9, 12 and 15 h was also achieved through discharge assimilation with NSEs of 0.87, 0.78, 0.72 and 0.51, respectively. Analysis of experiments using various data assimilation system configurations indicates that the optimal assimilation time window depends both on basin properties and storm-specific space-time-structure of rainfall, and therefore adaptive, context-aware configurations of the data assimilation system are recommended to address the challenges of flood prediction in headwater basins.

Operational hydrological forecasting during the IPHEx-IOP campaign - Meet the challenge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Jing; Wu, Di; Gourley, Jonathan; Zhang, Sara Q.; Crow, Wade; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Barros, Ana P.

2016-10-01

An operational streamflow forecasting testbed was implemented during the Intense Observing Period (IOP) of the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx-IOP) in May-June 2014 to characterize flood predictability in complex terrain. Specifically, hydrological forecasts were issued daily for 12 headwater catchments in the Southern Appalachians using the Duke Coupled surface-groundwater Hydrology Model (DCHM) forced by hourly atmospheric fields and QPFs (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) produced by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. Previous day hindcasts forced by radar-based QPEs (Quantitative Precipitation Estimates) were used to provide initial conditions for present day forecasts. This manuscript first describes the operational testbed framework and workflow during the IPHEx-IOP including a synthesis of results. Second, various data assimilation approaches are explored a posteriori (post-IOP) to improve operational (flash) flood forecasting. Although all flood events during the IOP were predicted by the IPHEx operational testbed with lead times of up to 6 h, significant errors of over- and, or under-prediction were identified that could be traced back to the QPFs and subgrid-scale variability of radar QPEs. To improve operational flood prediction, three data-merging strategies were pursued post-IOP: (1) the spatial patterns of QPFs were improved through assimilation of satellite-based microwave radiances into NU-WRF; (2) QPEs were improved by merging raingauge observations with ground-based radar observations using bias-correction methods to produce streamflow hindcasts and associated uncertainty envelope capturing the streamflow observations, and (3) river discharge observations were assimilated into the DCHM to improve streamflow forecasts using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the fixed-lag Ensemble Kalman Smoother (EnKS), and the Asynchronous EnKF (i.e. AEnKF) methods. Both flood hindcasts and forecasts were significantly improved by assimilating discharge observations into the DCHM. Specifically, Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) values as high as 0.98, 0.71 and 0.99 at 15-min time-scales were attained for three headwater catchments in the inner mountain region demonstrating that the assimilation of discharge observations at the basin's outlet can reduce the errors and uncertainties in soil moisture at very small scales. Success in operational flood forecasting at lead times of 6, 9, 12 and 15 h was also achieved through discharge assimilation with NSEs of 0.87, 0.78, 0.72 and 0.51, respectively. Analysis of experiments using various data assimilation system configurations indicates that the optimal assimilation time window depends both on basin properties and storm-specific space-time-structure of rainfall, and therefore adaptive, context-aware configurations of the data assimilation system are recommended to address the challenges of flood prediction in headwater basins.

Undoing an Epidemiological Paradox: The Tobacco Industry’s Targeting of US Immigrants

PubMed Central

Acevedo-Garcia, Dolores; Barbeau, Elizabeth; Bishop, Jennifer Anne; Pan, Jocelyn; Emmons, Karen M.

2004-01-01

Objectives. We sought to ascertain whether the tobacco industry has conceptualized the US immigrant population as a separate market. Methods. We conducted a content analysis of major tobacco industry documents. Results. The tobacco industry has engaged in 3 distinct marketing strategies aimed at US immigrants: geographically based marketing directed toward immigrant communities, segmentation based on immigrants’ assimilation status, and coordinated marketing focusing on US immigrant groups and their countries of origin. Conclusions. Public health researchers should investigate further the tobacco industry’s characterization of the assimilated and non-assimilated immigrant markets, and its specific strategies for targeting these groups, in order to develop informed national and international tobacco control countermarketing strategies designed to protect immigrant populations and their countries of origin. PMID:15569972

State and parameter estimation of spatiotemporally chaotic systems illustrated by an application to Rayleigh-Bénard convection.

PubMed

Cornick, Matthew; Hunt, Brian; Ott, Edward; Kurtuldu, Huseyin; Schatz, Michael F

2009-03-01

Data assimilation refers to the process of estimating a system's state from a time series of measurements (which may be noisy or incomplete) in conjunction with a model for the system's time evolution. Here we demonstrate the applicability of a recently developed data assimilation method, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter, to nonlinear, high-dimensional, spatiotemporally chaotic flows in Rayleigh-Bénard convection experiments. Using this technique we are able to extract the full temperature and velocity fields from a time series of shadowgraph measurements. In addition, we describe extensions of the algorithm for estimating model parameters. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of our data assimilation technique to a broad class of experimental situations exhibiting spatiotemporal chaos.

Assimilation of Precipitation Measurement Missions Microwave Radiance Observations With GEOS-5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, Jianjun; Kim, Min-Jeong; McCarty, Will; Akella, Santha; Gu, Wei

2015-01-01

The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Core Observatory satellite was launched in February, 2014. The GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) is a conically scanning radiometer measuring 13 channels ranging from 10 to 183 GHz and sampling between 65 S 65 N. This instrument is a successor to the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), which has observed 9 channels at frequencies ranging 10 to 85 GHz between 40 S 40 N since 1997. This presentation outlines the base procedures developed to assimilate GMI and TMI radiances in clear-sky conditions, including quality control methods, thinning decisions, and the estimation of, observation errors. This presentation also shows the impact of these observations when they are incorporated into the GEOS-5 atmospheric data assimilation system.

Development and implementation of a remote-sensing and in situ data-assimilating version of CMAQ for operational PM2.5 forecasting. Part 1: MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data-assimilation design and testing.

PubMed

McHenry, John N; Vukovich, Jeffery M; Hsu, N Christina

2015-12-01

This two-part paper reports on the development, implementation, and improvement of a version of the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that assimilates real-time remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) information and ground-based PM2.5 monitor data in routine prognostic application. The model is being used by operational air quality forecasters to help guide their daily issuance of state or local-agency-based air quality alerts (e.g. action days, health advisories). Part 1 describes the development and testing of the initial assimilation capability, which was implemented offline in partnership with NASA and the Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) Regional Planning Organization (RPO). In the initial effort, MODIS-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) data are input into a variational data-assimilation scheme using both the traditional Dark Target and relatively new "Deep Blue" retrieval methods. Evaluation of the developmental offline version, reported in Part 1 here, showed sufficient promise to implement the capability within the online, prognostic operational model described in Part 2. In Part 2, the addition of real-time surface PM2.5 monitoring data to improve the assimilation and an initial evaluation of the prognostic modeling system across the continental United States (CONUS) is presented. Air quality forecasts are now routinely used to understand when air pollution may reach unhealthy levels. For the first time, an operational air quality forecast model that includes the assimilation of remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth and ground based PM2.5 observations is being used. The assimilation enables quantifiable improvements in model forecast skill, which improves confidence in the accuracy of the officially-issued forecasts. This helps air quality stakeholders be more effective in taking mitigating actions (reducing power consumption, ride-sharing, etc.) and avoiding exposures that could otherwise result in more serious air quality episodes or more deleterious health effects.

Data assimilation experiment of precipitable water vapor observed by a hyper-dense GNSS receiver network using a nested NHM-LETKF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oigawa, Masanori; Tsuda, Toshitaka; Seko, Hiromu; Shoji, Yoshinori; Realini, Eugenio

2018-05-01

We studied the assimilation of high-resolution precipitable water vapor (PWV) data derived from a hyper-dense global navigation satellite system network around Uji city, Kyoto, Japan, which had a mean inter-station distance of about 1.7 km. We focused on a heavy rainfall event that occurred on August 13-14, 2012, around Uji city. We employed a local ensemble transform Kalman filter as the data assimilation method. The inhomogeneity of the observed PWV increased on a scale of less than 10 km in advance of the actual rainfall detected by the rain gauge. Zenith wet delay data observed by the Uji network showed that the characteristic length scale of water vapor distribution during the rainfall ranged from 1.9 to 3.5 km. It is suggested that the assimilation of PWV data with high horizontal resolution (a few km) improves the forecast accuracy. We conducted the assimilation experiment of high-resolution PWV data, using both small horizontal localization radii and a conventional horizontal localization radius. We repeated the sensitivity experiment, changing the mean horizontal spacing of the PWV data from 1.7 to 8.0 km. When the horizontal spacing of assimilated PWV data was decreased from 8.0 to 3.5 km, the accuracy of the simulated hourly rainfall amount worsened in the experiment that used the conventional localization radius for the assimilation of PWV. In contrast, the accuracy of hourly rainfall amounts improved when we applied small horizontal localization radii. In the experiment that used the small horizontal localization radii, the accuracy of the hourly rainfall amount was most improved when the horizontal resolution of the assimilated PWV data was 3.5 km. The optimum spatial resolution of PWV data was related to the characteristic length scale of water vapor variability.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Assimilation of altimeter data into a quasigeostrophic ocean model using optimal interpolation and eofs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rienecker, M. M.; Adamec, D.

1995-01-01

An ensemble of fraternal-twin experiments is used to assess the utility of optimal interpolation and model-based vertical empirical orthogonal functions (eofs) of streamfunction variability to assimilate satellite altimeter data into ocean models. Simulated altimeter data are assimilated into a basin-wide 3-layer quasi-geostrophic model with a horizontal grid spacing of 15 km. The effects of bottom topography are included and the model is forced by a wind stress curl distribution which is constant in time. The simulated data are extracted, along altimeter tracks with spatial and temporal characteristics of Geosat, from a reference model ocean with a slightly different climatology from that generated by the model used for assimilation. The use of vertical eofs determined from the model-generated streamfunction variability is shown to be effective in aiding the model's dynamical extrapolation of the surface information throughout the rest of the water column. After a single repeat cycle (17 days), the analysis errors are reduced markedly from the initial level, by 52% in the surface layer, 41% in the second layer and 11% in the bottom layer. The largest differences between the assimilation analysis and the reference ocean are found in the nonlinear regime of the mid-latitude jet in all layers. After 100 days of assimilation, the error in the upper two layers has been reduced by over 50% and that in the bottom layer by 38%. The essence of the method is that the eofs capture the statistics of the dynamical balances in the model and ensure that this balance is not inappropriately disturbed during the assimilation process. This statistical balance includes any potential vorticity homogeneity which may be associated with the eddy stirring by mid-latitude surface jets.

Newtonian nudging for a Richards equation-based distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paniconi, Claudio; Marrocu, Marino; Putti, Mario; Verbunt, Mark

The objective of data assimilation is to provide physically consistent estimates of spatially distributed environmental variables. In this study a relatively simple data assimilation method has been implemented in a relatively complex hydrological model. The data assimilation technique is Newtonian relaxation or nudging, in which model variables are driven towards observations by a forcing term added to the model equations. The forcing term is proportional to the difference between simulation and observation (relaxation component) and contains four-dimensional weighting functions that can incorporate prior knowledge about the spatial and temporal variability and characteristic scales of the state variable(s) being assimilated. The numerical model couples a three-dimensional finite element Richards equation solver for variably saturated porous media and a finite difference diffusion wave approximation based on digital elevation data for surface water dynamics. We describe the implementation of the data assimilation algorithm for the coupled model and report on the numerical and hydrological performance of the resulting assimilation scheme. Nudging is shown to be successful in improving the hydrological simulation results, and it introduces little computational cost, in terms of CPU and other numerical aspects of the model's behavior, in some cases even improving numerical performance compared to model runs without nudging. We also examine the sensitivity of the model to nudging term parameters including the spatio-temporal influence coefficients in the weighting functions. Overall the nudging algorithm is quite flexible, for instance in dealing with concurrent observation datasets, gridded or scattered data, and different state variables, and the implementation presented here can be readily extended to any of these features not already incorporated. Moreover the nudging code and tests can serve as a basis for implementation of more sophisticated data assimilation techniques in a Richards equation-based hydrological model.

Combined Application of UHPLC-QTOF/MS, HPLC-ELSD and 1 H-NMR Spectroscopy for Quality Assessment of DA-9801, A Standardised Dioscorea Extract.

PubMed

Kang, Kyo Bin; Ryu, Jayoung; Cho, Youngwoong; Choi, Sang-Zin; Son, Miwon; Sung, Sang Hyun

2017-05-01

DA-9801, a standardised 50% aqueous ethanolic extract of a mixture of Dioscorea japonica and D. nipponica, is a botanical drug candidate for the treatment of diabetic neuropathy, which finished its US phase II clinical trials recently. An advanced quality control method is needed for further development of DA-9801, considering its high contents of both primary and secondary metabolites. Development of a quality assessment strategy for DA-9801, based on the combination of UHPLC-QTOF/MS, HPLC-ELSD, and 1 H-NMR spectroscopy. The method was developed and tested with 15 batch products of DA-9801. The steroidal saponins of DA-9801 were tentatively identified by UHPLC-QTOF/MS and were quantified with the validated HPLC-ELSD method. Primary metabolites of DA-9801 were identified and profiled using 1 H-NMR spectrometry. The batch-to-batch equivalence of DA-9801 was tested with the 1 H-NMR spectra using spectral binning, correlation analysis, and principal component analysis. Six major saponins of DA-9801 were tentatively identified by UHPLC-QTOF/MS. Among them, protodioscin and dioscin were quantified by the validated HPLC-ELSD method. Twenty-six metabolites were identified in 1 H-NMR spectra. The similarity between DA-9801 batches could be evaluated with the NMR spectra of DA-9801. The 1 H-NMR method also revealed that two Dioscorea species contributed distinct amino acids to the contents of DA-9801. This study validates the effectiveness of UHPLC-QTOF/MS, HPLC-ELSD, and 1 H NMR-combined method for quality control of DA-9801 and its crude materials. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assimilating GRACE terrestrial water storage data into a conceptual hydrology model for the River Rhine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widiastuti, E.; Steele-Dunne, S. C.; Gunter, B.; Weerts, A.; van de Giesen, N.

2009-12-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is a key component of the terrestrial and global hydrological cycles, and plays a major role in the Earth’s climate. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellite mission provided the first space-based dataset of TWS variations, albeit with coarse resolution and limited accuracy. Here, we examine the value of assimilating GRACE observations into a well-calibrated conceptual hydrology model of the Rhine river basin. In this study, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and smoother (EnKS) were applied to assimilate the GRACE TWS variation data into the HBV-96 rainfall run-off model, from February 2003 to December 2006. Two GRACE datasets were used, the DMT-1 models produced at TU Delft, and the CSR-RL04 models produced by UT-Austin . Each center uses its own data processing and filtering methods, yielding two different estimates of TWS variations and therefore two sets of assimilated TWS estimates. To validate the results, the model estimated discharge after the data assimilation was compared with measured discharge at several stations. As expected, the updated TWS was generally somewhere between the modeled and observed TWS in both experiments and the variance was also lower than both the prior error covariance and the assumed GRACE observation error. However, the impact on the discharge was found to depend heavily on the assimilation strategy used, in particular on how the TWS increments were applied to the individual storage terms of the hydrology model.

Incorporating Parallel Computing into the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, Jay W.

1998-01-01

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining actual observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the earth system than the observations or forecast alone can provide. The output of data assimilation, sometimes called the analysis, are regular, gridded datasets of observed and unobserved variables. Analysis plays a key role in numerical weather prediction and is becoming increasingly important for climate research. These applications, and the need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system pose computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. The mission of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to provide datasets for climate research and to support NASA satellite and aircraft missions. The system used to create these datasets is the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The core components of the the GEOS DAS are: the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM), the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS), the Observer, the on-line Quality Control (QC) system, the Coupler (which feeds analysis increments back to the GCM), and an I/O package for processing the large amounts of data the system produces (which will be described in another presentation in this session). The discussion will center on the following issues: the computational complexity for the whole GEOS DAS, assessment of the performance of the individual elements of GEOS DAS, and parallelization strategy for some of the components of the system.

The Kalman Filter and High Performance Computing at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyster, Peter M.

1999-01-01

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining actual observations with model simulations to produce a more accurate description of the earth system than the observations alone provide. The output of data assimilation, sometimes called "the analysis", are accurate regular, gridded datasets of observed and unobserved variables. This is used not only for weather forecasting but is becoming increasingly important for climate research. For example, these datasets may be used to assess retrospectively energy budgets or the effects of trace gases such as ozone. This allows researchers to understand processes driving weather and climate, which have important scientific and policy implications. The primary goal of the NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to provide datasets for climate research and to support NASA satellite and aircraft missions. This presentation will: (1) describe ongoing work on the advanced Kalman/Lagrangian filter parallel algorithm for the assimilation of trace gases in the stratosphere; and (2) discuss the Kalman filter in relation to other presentations from the DAO on Four Dimensional Data Assimilation at this meeting. Although the designation "Kalman filter" is often used to describe the overarching work, the series of talks will show that the scientific software and the kind of parallelization techniques that are being developed at the DAO are very different depending on the type of problem being considered, the extent to which the problem is mission critical, and the degree of Software Engineering that has to be applied.

Assimilation of attenuated data from X-band network radars using ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jing

To use reflectivity data from X-band radars for quantitative precipitation estimation and storm-scale data assimilation, the effect of attenuation must be properly accounted for. Traditional approaches try to make correction to the attenuated reflectivity first before using the data. An alternative, theoretically more attractive approach builds the attenuation effect into the reflectivity observation operator of a data assimilation system, such as an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), allowing direct assimilation of the attenuated reflectivity and taking advantage of microphysical state estimation using EnKF methods for a potentially more accurate solution. This study first tests the approach for the CASA (Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere) X-band radar network configuration through observing system simulation experiments (OSSE) for a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) that has more significant attenuation than isolated storms. To avoid the problem of potentially giving too much weight to fully attenuated reflectivity, an analytical, echo-intensity-dependent model for the observation error (AEM) is developed and is found to improve the performance of the filter. By building the attenuation into the forward observation operator and combining it with the application of AEM, the assimilation of attenuated CASA observations is able to produce a reasonably accurate analysis of the QLCS inside CASA radar network coverage. Compared with foregoing assimilation of radar data with weak radar reflectivity or assimilating only radial velocity data, our method can suppress the growth of spurious echoes while obtaining a more accurate analysis in the terms of root-mean-square (RMS) error. Sensitivity experiments are designed to examine the effectiveness of AEM by introducing multiple sources of observation errors into the simulated observations. The performance of such an approach in the presence of resolution-induced model error is also evaluated and good results are obtained. The same EnKF framework with attenuation correction is used to test different possible configurations of 2 hypothetical radars added to the existing network of 4 CASA radars through OSSEs. Though plans to expand the CASA radar network did not materialize, such experiments can provide guidance in the site selection of future X-band or other short-wavelength radar networks, as well as examining the benefit of X-band radar networks that consist of a much larger number of radars. Two QLCSs with different propagation speeds are generated and serve as the truth for our OSSEs. Assimilation and forecast results are compared among the OSSEs, assimilating only X-band or short-wavelength radar data. Overall, radar networks with larger downstream spatial coverage tend to provide overall the best analyses and 1-hour forecasts. The best analyses and forecasts of convective scale structure, however, are obtained when Dual- or Multi-Doppler coverage is preferred, even at the expense of minor loss in spatial coverage. Built-in attenuation correction is then applied, for the first time, to a real case (the 24 May 2011 tornadic storm near Chickasha, Oklahoma), using data from the X-band CASA radars. The attenuation correction procedure is found to be very effective---the analyses obtained using attenuated data are better than those obtained using pre-corrected data when all the values of reflectivity observations are assimilated. The effectiveness of the procedure is further examined by comparing the deterministic and ensemble forecasts started from the analysis of each experiment. The deterministic forecast experiment results indicate that assimilating un-corrected observations directly actually retains some information that might be lost in the pre-corrected CASA observations by forecasting a longer-lasting trailing line, similar to that observed in WSR-88D data. In the ensemble forecasts, assimilating un-corrected observations directly, using our attenuation-correcting EnKF, results in a forecast with a more intense tornado track than the experiment that assimilates all values of pre-corrected CASA data. This work is the first to assimilate attenuated observations from a radar network in OSSEs, as well as the first attempt to directly assimilate real, uncorrected CASA data into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model using EnKF.

Nonlinear data assimilation for the regional modeling of maximum ozone values.

PubMed

Božnar, Marija Zlata; Grašič, Boštjan; Mlakar, Primož; Gradišar, Dejan; Kocijan, Juš

2017-11-01

We present a new method of data assimilation with the aim of correcting the forecast of the maximum values of ozone in regional photo-chemical models for areas over complex terrain using multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks. Up until now, these types of models have been used as a single model for one location when forecasting concentrations of air pollutants. We propose a method for constructing a more ambitious model: a single model, which can be used at several locations because the model is spatially transferable and is valid for the whole 2D domain. To achieve this goal, we introduce three novel ideas. The new method improves correlation at measurement station locations by 10% on average and improves by approximately 5% elsewhere.

Data Assimilation for Applied Meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haupt, S. E.

2012-12-01

Although atmospheric models provide a best estimate of the future state of the atmosphere, due to sensitivity to initial condition, it is difficult to predict the precise future state. For applied problems, however, users often depend on having accurate knowledge of that future state. To improve prediction of a particular realization of an evolving flow field requires knowledge of the current state of that field and assimilation of local observations into the model. This talk will consider how dynamic assimilation can help address the concerns of users of atmospheric forecasts. First, we will look at the value of assimilation for the renewable energy industry. If the industry decision makers can have confidence in the wind and solar power forecasts, they can build their power allocations around the expected renewable resource, saving money for the ratepayers as well as reducing carbon emissions. We will assess the value to that industry of assimilating local real-time observations into the model forecasts and the value that is provided. The value of the forecasts with assimilation is important on both short (several hour) to medium range (within two days). A second application will be atmospheric transport and dispersion problems. In particular, we will look at assimilation of concentration data into a prediction model. An interesting aspect of this problem is that the dynamics are a one-way coupled system, with the fluid dynamic equations affecting the concentration equation, but not vice versa. So when the observations are of the concentration, one must infer the fluid dynamics. This one-way coupled system presents a challenge: one must first infer the changes in the flow field from observations of the contaminant, then assimilate that to recover both the advecting flow and information on the subgrid processes that provide the mixing. To accomplish such assimilation requires a robust method to match the observed contaminant field to that modeled. One approach is to separate the problem into a transport portion and a dispersion portion, representing the resolved flow and the unresolved portion. One then treats the resolved portion in a Lagrangian framework and the unresolved in an Eulerian framework to pose an optimization problem for both the transport and dispersion variables. We demonstrate how this problem can be solved by assimilating the data dynamically using a genetic algorithm variation approach (GA-Var). This technique is demonstrated on both a basic Gaussian puff problem and a Large Eddy Simulation. Finally we will show how assimilation can help bridge the gap between modeling flows at the mesoscale and flows at the fine scale that is often important for resolving flow around local features. By assimilating mesoscale model data into a computational fluid dynamics model, we can force the fine scale model to with the features at the mesoscale, providing a coupling mechanism.

Variational data assimilation schemes for transport and transformation models of atmospheric chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penenko, Alexey; Penenko, Vladimir; Tsvetova, Elena; Antokhin, Pavel

2016-04-01

The work is devoted to data assimilation algorithm for atmospheric chemistry transport and transformation models. In the work a control function is introduced into the model source term (emission rate) to provide flexibility to adjust to data. This function is evaluated as the constrained minimum of the target functional combining a control function norm with a norm of the misfit between measured data and its model-simulated analog. Transport and transformation processes model is acting as a constraint. The constrained minimization problem is solved with Euler-Lagrange variational principle [1] which allows reducing it to a system of direct, adjoint and control function estimate relations. This provides a physically-plausible structure of the resulting analysis without model error covariance matrices that are sought within conventional approaches to data assimilation. High dimensionality of the atmospheric chemistry models and a real-time mode of operation demand for computational efficiency of the data assimilation algorithms. Computational issues with complicated models can be solved by using a splitting technique. Within this approach a complex model is split to a set of relatively independent simpler models equipped with a coupling procedure. In a fine-grained approach data assimilation is carried out quasi-independently on the separate splitting stages with shared measurement data [2]. In integrated schemes data assimilation is carried out with respect to the split model as a whole. We compare the two approaches both theoretically and numerically. Data assimilation on the transport stage is carried out with a direct algorithm without iterations. Different algorithms to assimilate data on nonlinear transformation stage are compared. In the work we compare data assimilation results for both artificial and real measurement data. With these data we study the impact of transformation processes and data assimilation to the performance of the modeling system [3]. The work has been partially supported by RFBR grant 14-01-00125 and RAS Presidium II.4P. References: [1] Penenko V.V., Tsvetova E.A., Penenko A.V. Development of variational approach for direct and inverse problems of atmospheric hydrodynamics and chemistry // IZVESTIYA ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS, 2015, v 51 , p. 311 - 319 [2] A.V. Penenko and V.V. Penenko. Direct data assimilation method for convection-diffusion models based on splitting scheme. Computational technologies, 19(4):69-83, 2014. [3] A. Penenko; V. Penenko; R. Nuterman; A. Baklanov and A. Mahura Direct variational data assimilation algorithm for atmospheric chemistry data with transport and transformation model, Proc. SPIE 9680, 21st International Symposium Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, 968076 (November 19, 2015); doi:10.1117/12.2206008;http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2206008

Assimilation of flood extent data with 2D flood inundation models for localised intense rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, J. C.; Wood, M.; Bermúdez, M.; Hostache, R.; Freer, J. E.; Bates, P. D.; Coxon, G.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing of flood inundation extent has long been a potential source of data for constraining and correcting simulations of floodplain inundation. Hydrodynamic models and the computing resources to run them have developed to the extent that simulation of flood inundation in two-dimensional space is now feasible over large river basins in near real-time. However, despite substantial evidence that there is useful information content within inundation extent data, even from low resolution SAR such as that gathered by Envisat ASAR in wide swath mode, making use of the information in a data assimilation system has proved difficult. He we review recent applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter for assimilating SAR data, with a focus on the River Severn UK and compare these with complementary research that has looked at the internal error sources and boundary condition errors using detailed terrestrial data that is not available in most locations. Previous applications of the EnKF to this reach have focused on upstream boundary conditions as the source of flow error, however this description of errors was too simplistic for the simulation of summer flood events where localised intense rainfall can be substantial. Therefore, we evaluate the introduction of uncertain lateral inflows to the ensemble. A further limitation of the existing EnKF based methods is the need to convert flood extent to water surface elevations by intersecting the shoreline location with a high quality digital elevation model (e.g. LiDAR). To simplify this data processing step, we evaluate a method to directly assimilate inundation extent as a EnKF model state rather than assimilating water heights, potentially allowing the scheme to be used where high-quality terrain data are sparse.

Accounting for Location Error in Kalman Filters: Integrating Animal Borne Sensor Data into Assimilation Schemes

PubMed Central

Sengupta, Aritra; Foster, Scott D.; Patterson, Toby A.; Bravington, Mark

2012-01-01

Data assimilation is a crucial aspect of modern oceanography. It allows the future forecasting and backward smoothing of ocean state from the noisy observations. Statistical methods are employed to perform these tasks and are often based on or related to the Kalman filter. Typically Kalman filters assumes that the locations associated with observations are known with certainty. This is reasonable for typical oceanographic measurement methods. Recently, however an alternative and abundant source of data comes from the deployment of ocean sensors on marine animals. This source of data has some attractive properties: unlike traditional oceanographic collection platforms, it is relatively cheap to collect, plentiful, has multiple scientific uses and users, and samples areas of the ocean that are often difficult of costly to sample. However, inherent uncertainty in the location of the observations is a barrier to full utilisation of animal-borne sensor data in data-assimilation schemes. In this article we examine this issue and suggest a simple approximation to explicitly incorporate the location uncertainty, while staying in the scope of Kalman-filter-like methods. The approximation stems from a Taylor-series approximation to elements of the updating equation. PMID:22900005

Comparing WSA coronal and solar wind model predictions driven by line-of-sight and vector HMI ADAPT maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arge, C. N.; Henney, C. J.; Shurkin, K.; Wallace, S.

2017-12-01

As the primary input to nearly all coronal models, reliable estimates of the global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution are critical for accurate modeling and understanding of solar and heliospheric magnetic fields. The Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model generates synchronic (i.e., globally instantaneous) maps by evolving observed solar magnetic flux using relatively well understood transport processes when measurements are not available and then updating modeled flux with new observations (available from both the Earth and the far-side of the Sun) using data assimilation methods that rigorously take into account model and observational uncertainties. ADAPT is capable of assimilating line-of-sight and vector magnetic field data from all observatory sources including the expected photospheric vector magnetograms from the Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager (PHI) on the Solar Orbiter, as well as those generated using helioseismic methods. This paper compares Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal and solar wind modeling results at Earth and STEREO A & B using ADAPT input model maps derived from both line-of-site and vector SDO/HMI magnetograms that include methods for incorporating observations of a large, newly emerged (July 2010) far-side active region (AR11087).

Forecast skill score assessment of a relocatable ocean prediction system, using a simplified objective analysis method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onken, Reiner

2017-11-01

A relocatable ocean prediction system (ROPS) was employed to an observational data set which was collected in June 2014 in the waters to the west of Sardinia (western Mediterranean) in the framework of the REP14-MED experiment. The observational data, comprising more than 6000 temperature and salinity profiles from a fleet of underwater gliders and shipborne probes, were assimilated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which is the heart of ROPS, and verified against independent observations from ScanFish tows by means of the forecast skill score as defined by Murphy(1993). A simplified objective analysis (OA) method was utilised for assimilation, taking account of only those profiles which were located within a predetermined time window W. As a result of a sensitivity study, the highest skill score was obtained for a correlation length scale C = 12.5 km, W = 24 h, and r = 1, where r is the ratio between the error of the observations and the background error, both for temperature and salinity. Additional ROPS runs showed that (i) the skill score of assimilation runs was mostly higher than the score of a control run without assimilation, (i) the skill score increased with increasing forecast range, and (iii) the skill score for temperature was higher than the score for salinity in the majority of cases. Further on, it is demonstrated that the vast number of observations can be managed by the applied OA method without data reduction, enabling timely operational forecasts even on a commercially available personal computer or a laptop.

Comparison of the applicability of Demirjian and Willems methods for dental age estimation in children from the Thrace region, Turkey.

PubMed

Ozveren, N; Serindere, G

2018-04-01

Dental age (DA) estimation is frequently used in the fields of orthodontics, paediatric dentistry and forensic science. DA estimation methods use radiology, and are reliable and non-destructive according to the literature. The Demirjian method is currently the most frequently used method, but recently, the Willems method was reported to have given results that were more accurate for some regions. The aim of this study was to detect and compare the accuracy of DA estimation methods for children and adolescents from the Thrace region, Turkey. The mean difference between the chronological age (CA) and the DA was selected as the primary outcome measure, and the difference range according to sex and age group was selected as the secondary outcome. Panoramic radiographs (n=766) from a Thrace region population (380 males and 386 females) ranging in age from 6 to 14.99 years old were evaluated. DA was calculated using both the Demirjian and the Willems methods. The mean CA of the subjects was 11.39±2.34 years (males=11.08±2.42 years and females=11.70±2.23 years). The mean difference values between the CA and the DA (CA-DA) using the Demirjian method and the Willems method were -0.87 and -0.17 for females, respectively, and -1.04 and -0.40 for males, respectively. For the different age groups, the differences between the CA and the DA calculated using the Demirjian method (CA-DA) ranged from -0.53 to -1.46 years for males and from -0.19 to -1.20 years for females, while the mean differences between the CA and the DA calculated by the Willems method (CA-DA) ranged from -0.19 to -0.50 years for males and from 0.20 to -0.49 years for females. The results suggest that the Willems method produced more accurate results for almost all age groups of both sexes, and it is better suited for children from the Thrace region of Turkey, than the Demirjian method. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementation of Coupled Skin Temperature Analysis and Bias Correction in a Global Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radakovich, Jon; Bosilovich, M.; Chern, Jiun-dar; daSilva, Arlindo

2004-01-01

The NASA/NCAR Finite Volume GCM (fvGCM) with the NCAR CLM (Community Land Model) version 2.0 was integrated into the NASA/GMAO Finite Volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS). A new method was developed for coupled skin temperature assimilation and bias correction where the analysis increment and bias correction term is passed into the CLM2 and considered a forcing term in the solution to the energy balance. For our purposes, the fvDAS CLM2 was run at 1 deg. x 1.25 deg. horizontal resolution with 55 vertical levels. We assimilate the ISCCP-DX (30 km resolution) surface temperature product. The atmospheric analysis was performed 6-hourly, while the skin temperature analysis was performed 3-hourly. The bias correction term, which was updated at the analysis times, was added to the skin temperature tendency equation at every timestep. In this presentation, we focus on the validation of the surface energy budget at the in situ reference sites for the Coordinated Enhanced Observation Period (CEOP). We will concentrate on sites that include independent skin temperature measurements and complete energy budget observations for the month of July 2001. In addition, MODIS skin temperature will be used for validation. Several assimilations were conducted and preliminary results will be presented.

Satellite Data Assimilation within KIAPS-LETKF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Y.; Lee, S., Sr.; Cho, K.

2016-12-01

Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) has been developing an ensemble data assimilation system using four-dimensional local ensemble transform kalman filter (LETKF; Hunt et al., 2007) within KIAPS Integrated Model (KIM), referred to as "KIAPS-LETKF". KIAPS-LETKF system was successfully evaluated with various Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) with NCAR Community Atmospheric Model - Spectral Element (Kang et al., 2013), which has fully unstructured quadrilateral meshes based on the cubed-sphere grid as the same grid system of KIM. Recently, assimilation of real observations has been conducted within the KIAPS-LETKF system with four-dimensional covariance functions over the 6-hr assimilation window. Then, conventional (e.g., sonde, aircraft, and surface) and satellite (e.g., AMSU-A, IASI, GPS-RO, and AMV) observations have been provided by the KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP). Wind speed prediction was found most beneficial due to ingestion of AMV and for the temperature prediction the improvement in assimilation is mostly due to ingestion of AMSU-A and IASI. However, some degradation in the simulation of the GPS-RO is presented in the upper stratosphere, even though GPS-RO leads positive impacts on the analysis and forecasts. We plan to test the bias correction method and several vertical localization strategies for radiance observations to improve analysis and forecast impacts.

Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2010-10-01

The value of coupled assimilation is discussed using an intermediate coupled model in which the wind stress is the only atmospheric state which is slavery to model sea surface temperature (SST). In the coupled assimilation analysis, based on the coupled wind-ocean state covariance calculated from the coupled state ensemble, the ocean state is adjusted by assimilating wind data using the ensemble Kalman filter. As revealed by a series of assimilation experiments using simulated observations, the coupled assimilation of wind observations yields better results than the assimilation of SST observations. Specifically, the coupled assimilation of wind observations can help to improve the accuracy of the surface and subsurface currents because the correlation between the wind and ocean currents is stronger than that between SST and ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the coupled assimilation of wind data can decrease the initial condition errors in the surface/subsurface currents that can significantly contribute to SST forecast errors. The value of the coupled assimilation of wind observations is further demonstrated by comparing the prediction skills of three 12-year (1997-2008) hindcast experiments initialized by the ocean-only assimilation scheme that assimilates SST observations, the coupled assimilation scheme that assimilates wind observations, and a nudging scheme that nudges the observed wind stress data, respectively. The prediction skills of two assimilation schemes are significantly better than those of the nudging scheme. The prediction skills of assimilating wind observations are better than assimilating SST observations. Assimilating wind observations for the 2007/2008 La Niña event triggers better predictions, while assimilating SST observations fails to provide an early warning for that event.

Ensemble Kalman Filter versus Ensemble Smoother for Data Assimilation in Groundwater Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Cao, Z.; Zhou, H.

2017-12-01

Groundwater modeling calls for an effective and robust integrating method to fill the gap between the model and data. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), a real-time data assimilation method, has been increasingly applied in multiple disciplines such as petroleum engineering and hydrogeology. In this approach, the groundwater models are sequentially updated using measured data such as hydraulic head and concentration data. As an alternative to the EnKF, the Ensemble Smoother (ES) was proposed with updating models using all the data together, and therefore needs a much less computational cost. To further improve the performance of the ES, an iterative ES was proposed for continuously updating the models by assimilating measurements together. In this work, we compare the performance of the EnKF, the ES and the iterative ES using a synthetic example in groundwater modeling. The hydraulic head data modeled on the basis of the reference conductivity field are utilized to inversely estimate conductivities at un-sampled locations. Results are evaluated in terms of the characterization of conductivity and groundwater flow and solute transport predictions. It is concluded that: (1) the iterative ES could achieve a comparable result with the EnKF, but needs a less computational cost; (2) the iterative ES has the better performance than the ES through continuously updating. These findings suggest that the iterative ES should be paid much more attention for data assimilation in groundwater modeling.

Real data assimilation for optimization of frictional parameters and prediction of afterslip in the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake inferred from slip velocity by an adjoint method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kano, Masayuki; Miyazaki, Shin'ichi; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Hiyoshi, Yoshihisa; Ito, Kosuke; Hirahara, Kazuro

2015-10-01

Data assimilation is a technique that optimizes the parameters used in a numerical model with a constraint of model dynamics achieving the better fit to observations. Optimized parameters can be utilized for the subsequent prediction with a numerical model and predicted physical variables are presumably closer to observations that will be available in the future, at least, comparing to those obtained without the optimization through data assimilation. In this work, an adjoint data assimilation system is developed for optimizing a relatively large number of spatially inhomogeneous frictional parameters during the afterslip period in which the physical constraints are a quasi-dynamic equation of motion and a laboratory derived rate and state dependent friction law that describe the temporal evolution of slip velocity at subduction zones. The observed variable is estimated slip velocity on the plate interface. Before applying this method to the real data assimilation for the afterslip of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, a synthetic data assimilation experiment is conducted to examine the feasibility of optimizing the frictional parameters in the afterslip area. It is confirmed that the current system is capable of optimizing the frictional parameters A-B, A and L by adopting the physical constraint based on a numerical model if observations capture the acceleration and decaying phases of slip on the plate interface. On the other hand, it is unlikely to constrain the frictional parameters in the region where the amplitude of afterslip is less than 1.0 cm d-1. Next, real data assimilation for the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake is conducted to incorporate slip velocity data inferred from time dependent inversion of Global Navigation Satellite System time-series. The optimized values of A-B, A and L are O(10 kPa), O(102 kPa) and O(10 mm), respectively. The optimized frictional parameters yield the better fit to the observations and the better prediction skill of slip velocity afterwards. Also, further experiment shows the importance of employing a fine-mesh model. It will contribute to the further understanding of the frictional properties on plate interfaces and lead to the forecasting system that provides useful information on the possibility of consequent earthquakes.

Identification of Candida Species Using MP65 Gene and Evaluation of the Candida albicans MP65 Gene Expression in BALB/C Mice.

PubMed

Bineshian, Farahnaz; Yadegari, Mohammad Hossien; Sharifi, Zohre; Akbari Eidgahi, Mohammadreza; Nasr, Reza

2015-05-01

Systemic candidiasis is a major public health concern. In particular, in immunocompromised people, such as patients with neutropenia, patients with Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and cancer who are undergoing antiballistic chemotherapy or bone marrow transplants, and people with diabetes. Since the clinical signs and symptoms are nonspecific, early diagnosis is often difficult. The 65-kDa mannoprotein (MP65) gene of Candida albicans is appropriate for detection and identification of systemic candidiasis. This gene encodes a putative b-glucanase mannoprotein of 65 kDa, which plays a major role in the host-fungus relationship, morphogenesis and pathogenicity. The current study aimed to identify different species of Candida (C. albicans, C. glabrata and C. parapsilosis) using the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) technique and also to evaluate C. albicans MP65 gene expression in BALB/C mice. All yeast isolates were identified on cornmeal agar supplemented with tween-80, germ tube formation in serum, and assimilation of carbon sources in the API 20 C AUX yeast identification system. Polymerase Chain Reaction was performed on all samples using species-specific primers for the MP65 65 kDa gene. After RNA extraction, cDNA synthesis was performed by the Maxime RT Pre Mix kit. Candida albicans MP65 gene expression was evaluated by quantitative Real-Time (q Real-Time) and Real-Time (RT) PCR techniques. The 2-ΔΔCT method was used to analyze relative changes in gene expression of MP65. For statistical analysis, nonparametric Wilcoxon test was applied using the SPSS version 16 software. Using biochemical methods, one hundred, six and one isolates of clinical samples were determined as C. albicans, C. glabrata and C. parapsilosis, respectively. Species-specific primers for PCR experiments were applied to clinical specimens, and in all cases a single expected band for C. albicans, C. glabrata and C. parapsilosis was obtained (475, 361 and 124 base pairs, respectively). All species isolated by culture methods (100% positivity) were evaluated with PCR using species-specific primers to identify Candida species. Relative expression of Mp65 genes increased significantly after C. albicans injection into the mice (P < 0.05). The results of the current study showed that the PCR method is reproducible for rapid identification of Candida species with specific primers. Mp65 gene expression of C. albicans after injection into the mice was 2.3 folds higher than before injection, with this difference being significant. These results indicated that increase of Mp65 gene expression might be an early stage of infection; however definitive conclusions require further studies.

Performance Evaluation of EnKF-based Hydrogeological Site Characterization using Color Coherent Vectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moslehi, M.; de Barros, F.

2017-12-01

Complexity of hydrogeological systems arises from the multi-scale heterogeneity and insufficient measurements of their underlying parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and porosity. An inadequate characterization of hydrogeological properties can significantly decrease the trustworthiness of numerical models that predict groundwater flow and solute transport. Therefore, a variety of data assimilation methods have been proposed in order to estimate hydrogeological parameters from spatially scarce data by incorporating the governing physical models. In this work, we propose a novel framework for evaluating the performance of these estimation methods. We focus on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach that is a widely used data assimilation technique. It reconciles multiple sources of measurements to sequentially estimate model parameters such as the hydraulic conductivity. Several methods have been used in the literature to quantify the accuracy of the estimations obtained by EnKF, including Rank Histograms, RMSE and Ensemble Spread. However, these commonly used methods do not regard the spatial information and variability of geological formations. This can cause hydraulic conductivity fields with very different spatial structures to have similar histograms or RMSE. We propose a vision-based approach that can quantify the accuracy of estimations by considering the spatial structure embedded in the estimated fields. Our new approach consists of adapting a new metric, Color Coherent Vectors (CCV), to evaluate the accuracy of estimated fields achieved by EnKF. CCV is a histogram-based technique for comparing images that incorporate spatial information. We represent estimated fields as digital three-channel images and use CCV to compare and quantify the accuracy of estimations. The sensitivity of CCV to spatial information makes it a suitable metric for assessing the performance of spatial data assimilation techniques. Under various factors of data assimilation methods such as number, layout, and type of measurements, we compare the performance of CCV with other metrics such as RMSE. By simulating hydrogeological processes using estimated and true fields, we observe that CCV outperforms other existing evaluation metrics.

Robust Hydrological Forecasting for High-resolution Distributed Models Using a Unified Data Assimilation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, F.; Liang, X.

2017-12-01

Reliable real-time hydrological forecasting, to predict important phenomena such as floods, is invaluable to the society. However, modern high-resolution distributed models have faced challenges when dealing with uncertainties that are caused by the large number of parameters and initial state estimations involved. Therefore, to rely on these high-resolution models for critical real-time forecast applications, considerable improvements on the parameter and initial state estimation techniques must be made. In this work we present a unified data assimilation algorithm called Optimized PareTo Inverse Modeling through Inverse STochastic Search (OPTIMISTS) to deal with the challenge of having robust flood forecasting for high-resolution distributed models. This new algorithm combines the advantages of particle filters and variational methods in a unique way to overcome their individual weaknesses. The analysis of candidate particles compares model results with observations in a flexible time frame, and a multi-objective approach is proposed which attempts to simultaneously minimize differences with the observations and departures from the background states by using both Bayesian sampling and non-convex evolutionary optimization. Moreover, the resulting Pareto front is given a probabilistic interpretation through kernel density estimation to create a non-Gaussian distribution of the states. OPTIMISTS was tested on a low-resolution distributed land surface model using VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) and on a high-resolution distributed hydrological model using the DHSVM (Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model). In the tests streamflow observations are assimilated. OPTIMISTS was also compared with a traditional particle filter and a variational method. Results show that our method can reliably produce adequate forecasts and that it is able to outperform those resulting from assimilating the observations using a particle filter or an evolutionary 4D variational method alone. In addition, our method is shown to be efficient in tackling high-resolution applications with robust results.

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, D.

1999-01-01

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Validation Test Report for the Navy Coastal Ocean Model Four-Dimensional Variational Assimilation (NCOM 4DVAR) System Version 1.0

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-14

assimilated directly into a free surface ocean  model using NCOM 4DVAR methods without generating gravity waves.  The  latter is a serious  problem  that... The  bias of buoyancy frequency  in  the   left plot of figure 4‐19  reveals that  the  NCOM 4DVAR is doing fairly well at predicting  the   stratification ...Test Report for the Navy Coastal Ocean Model Four-Dimensional Variational Assimilation (NCOM 4DVAR) System Version 1.0 Scott Smith matthew carrier

The performance of immigrants in the Norwegian labor market.

PubMed

Hayfron, J E

1998-01-01

"This paper tests the assimilation hypothesis with Norwegian data. Using both cross-section and cohort analyses, the results show that the 1970-1979 immigrant cohort experienced an earnings growth of about 11% between 1980 and 1990, when their earnings profile was compared to that of natives. This is lower than the 19% assimilation rate predicted by the cross-section method. On the contrary, the results reveal a rapid earnings divergence across cohorts, and between the 1960-1969 cohort and natives." excerpt

A Weak Constraint 4D-Var Assimilation System for the Navy Coastal Model Using the Representer Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

the help of the Parametric Fortrai compiler (PFC), Erwig et al. 2007 . Some general circulation models of the complexity of NCOM have seen 1 similar...the Mir general circulation model (MITgcm, Marotzke et al. 1999) also used in the ECCO consortium assimilation experiments ( Stammer et al. 2002...using the« inverse Regional Ocean Modeling System (IROMS, Di Lorenzo et al. 2007 ) with horizontal resolutions of 10 and 30km. The CCS is a large

A hybrid variational ensemble data assimilation for the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, N.; Bojarova, J.; Vignes, O.

2014-02-01

A hybrid variational ensemble data assimilation has been developed on top of the HIRLAM variational data assimilation. It provides the possibility of applying a flow-dependent background error covariance model during the data assimilation at the same time as full rank characteristics of the variational data assimilation are preserved. The hybrid formulation is based on an augmentation of the assimilation control variable with localised weights to be assigned to a set of ensemble member perturbations (deviations from the ensemble mean). The flow-dependency of the hybrid assimilation is demonstrated in single simulated observation impact studies and the improved performance of the hybrid assimilation in comparison with pure 3-dimensional variational as well as pure ensemble assimilation is also proven in real observation assimilation experiments. The performance of the hybrid assimilation is comparable to the performance of the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation. The sensitivity to various parameters of the hybrid assimilation scheme and the sensitivity to the applied ensemble generation techniques are also examined. In particular, the inclusion of ensemble perturbations with a lagged validity time has been examined with encouraging results.

Development of a software framework for data assimilation and its applications for streamflow forecasting in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.; Yorozu, K.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Data assimilation methods have received increased attention to accomplish uncertainty assessment and enhancement of forecasting capability in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modeling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for sequential data assimilation, so called MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modeling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. Sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models based on MPI-OHyMoS considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for short-term streamflow forecasting of several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and remotely-sensed rainfall data such as X-band or C-band radar is estimated and mitigated in the sequential data assimilation.

Assimilation by lunar mare basalts: Melting of crustal material and dissolution of anorthite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finnila, A. B.; Hess, P. C.; Rutherford, M. J.

1994-07-01

We discuss techniques for calculating the amount of crustal assimilation possible in lunar magma chambers and dikes based on thermal energy balances, kinetic rates, and simple fluid mechanical constraints. Assuming parent magmas of picritic compositions, we demonstrate the limits on the capacity of such magmas to melt and dissolve wall rock of anorthitic, troctolitic, noritic, and KREEP (quartz monzodiorite) compositions. Significant melting of the plagioclase-rich crustal lithologies requires turbulent convection in the assimilating magma and an efficient method of mixing in the relatively buoyant and viscous new melt. Even when this occurs, the major element chemistry of the picritic magmas will change by less than 1-2 wt %. Diffusion coefficients measured for Al2O3 from an iron-free basalt and an orange glass composition are 10-12 sq m/s at 1340 C and 10-11 sq m/s at 1390 C. These rates are too slow to allow dissolution of plagioclase to significantly affect magma compositions. Picritic magmas can melt significant quantities of KREEP, which suggests that their trace element chemistry may still be affected by assimilation processes; however, mixing viscous melts of KREEP composition with the fluid picritic magmas could be prohibitively difficult. We conclude that only a small part of the total major element chemical variation in the mare basalt and volcanic glass collection is due to assimilation/fractional crystallization processes near the lunar surface. Instead, most of the chemical variation in the lunar basalts and volcanic glasses must result from assimilation at deeper levels or from having distinct source regions in a heterogeneous lunar mantle.

Assimilation by lunar mare basalts: Melting of crustal material and dissolution of anorthite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finnila, A. B.; Hess, P. C.; Rutherford, M. J.

1994-01-01

We discuss techniques for calculating the amount of crustal assimilation possible in lunar magma chambers and dikes based on thermal energy balances, kinetic rates, and simple fluid mechanical constraints. Assuming parent magmas of picritic compositions, we demonstrate the limits on the capacity of such magmas to melt and dissolve wall rock of anorthitic, troctolitic, noritic, and KREEP (quartz monzodiorite) compositions. Significant melting of the plagioclase-rich crustal lithologies requires turbulent convection in the assimilating magma and an efficient method of mixing in the relatively buoyant and viscous new melt. Even when this occurs, the major element chemistry of the picritic magmas will change by less than 1-2 wt %. Diffusion coefficients measured for Al2O3 from an iron-free basalt and an orange glass composition are 10(exp -12) sq m/s at 1340 C and 10(exp -11) sq m/s at 1390 C. These rates are too slow to allow dissolution of plagioclase to significantly affect magma compositions. Picritic magmas can melt significant quantities of KREEP, which suggests that their trace element chemistry may still be affected by assimilation processes; however, mixing viscous melts of KREEP composition with the fluid picritic magmas could be prohibitively difficult. We conclude that only a small part of the total major element chemical variation in the mare basalt and volcanic glass collection is due to assimilation/fractional crystallization processes near the lunar surface. Instead, most of the chemical variation in the lunar basalts and volcanic glasses must result from assimilation at deeper levels or from having distinct source regions in a heterogeneous lunar mantle.

Reconstructing East African rainfall and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures over the last centuries using data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, François; Goosse, Hugues

2018-06-01

The relationship between the East African rainfall and Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) is well established. The potential interest of this covariance to improve reconstructions of both variables over the last centuries is examined here. This is achieved through an off-line method of data assimilation based on a particle filter, using hydroclimate-related records at four East African sites (Lake Naivasha, Lake Challa, Lake Malawi and Lake Masoko) and SSTs-related records at six oceanic sites spread over the Indian Ocean to constrain the Last Millennium Ensemble of simulations performed by CESM1. Skillful reconstructions of the Indian SSTs and East African rainfall can be obtained based on the assimilation of only one of these variables, when assimilating pseudo-proxy data deduced from the model CESM1. The skill of these reconstructions increases with the number of particles selected in the particle filter, although the improvement becomes modest beyond 99 particles. When considering a more realistic framework, the skill of the reconstructions is strongly deteriorated because of the model biases and the uncertainties of the real proxy-based reconstructions. However, it is still possible to obtain a skillful reconstruction of SSTs over most of the Indian Ocean only based on the assimilation of the six SST-related proxy records selected, as far as a local calibration is applied at all individual sites. This underlines once more the critical role of an adequate integration of the signal inferred from proxy records into the climate models for reconstructions based on data assimilation.

Efficient ensemble forecasting of marine ecology with clustered 1D models and statistical lateral exchange: application to the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreano, Denis; Tsiaras, Kostas; Triantafyllou, George; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-07-01

Forecasting the state of large marine ecosystems is important for many economic and public health applications. However, advanced three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem models, such as the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), are computationally expensive, especially when implemented within an ensemble data assimilation system requiring several parallel integrations. As an alternative to 3D ecological forecasting systems, we propose to implement a set of regional one-dimensional (1D) water-column ecological models that run at a fraction of the computational cost. The 1D model domains are determined using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-based clustering method and satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data. Regionally averaged Chl-a data is assimilated into the 1D models using the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter. To laterally exchange information between subregions and improve the forecasting skills, we introduce a new correction step to the assimilation scheme, in which we assimilate a statistical forecast of future Chl-a observations based on information from neighbouring regions. We apply this approach to the Red Sea and show that the assimilative 1D ecological models can forecast surface Chl-a concentration with high accuracy. The statistical assimilation step further improves the forecasting skill by as much as 50%. This general approach of clustering large marine areas and running several interacting 1D ecological models is very flexible. It allows many combinations of clustering, filtering and regression technics to be used and can be applied to build efficient forecasting systems in other large marine ecosystems.

Assimilation of surface NO2 and O3 observations into the SILAM chemistry transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vira, J.; Sofiev, M.

2014-08-01

This paper describes assimilation of trace gas observations into the chemistry transport model SILAM using the 3D-Var method. Assimilation results for year 2012 are presented for the prominent photochemical pollutants ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Both species are covered by the Airbase observation database, which provides the observational dataset used in this study. Attention is paid to the background and observation error covariance matrices, which are obtained primarily by iterative application of a posteriori diagnostics. The diagnostics are computed separately for two months representing summer and winter conditions, and further disaggregated by time of day. This allows deriving background and observation error covariance definitions which include both seasonal and diurnal variation. The consistency of the obtained covariance matrices is verified using χ2 diagnostics. The analysis scores are computed for a control set of observation stations withheld from assimilation. Compared to a free-running model simulation, the correlation coefficient for daily maximum values is improved from 0.8 to 0.9 for O3 and from 0.53 to 0.63 for NO2.

Nonlinear data assimilation: towards a prediction of the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svedin, Andreas

The solar cycle is the cyclic variation of solar activity, with a span of 9-14 years. The prediction of the solar cycle is an important and unsolved problem with implications for communications, aviation and other aspects of our high-tech society. Our interest is model-based prediction, and we present a self-consistent procedure for parameter estimation and model state estimation, even when only one of several model variables can be observed. Data assimilation is the art of comparing, combining and transferring observed data into a mathematical model or computer simulation. We use the 3DVAR methodology, based on the notion of least squares, to present an implementation of a traditional data assimilation. Using the Shadowing Filter — a recently developed method for nonlinear data assimilation — we outline a path towards model based prediction of the solar cycle. To achieve this end we solve a number of methodological challenges related to unobserved variables. We also provide a new framework for interpretation that can guide future predictions of the Sun and other astrophysical objects.

Trends in the application of dynamic allocation methods in multi-arm cancer clinical trials.

PubMed

Pond, Gregory R; Tang, Patricia A; Welch, Stephen A; Chen, Eric X

2010-06-01

Dynamic allocation (DA) methods which attempt to balance baseline prognostic factors between treatment arms, can be used in multi-arm clinical trials to sequentially allocate patients to treatment. Although some experts express concern regarding the validity of inference from trials using DA, others believe DA methods produce more credible results. A review of published multi-arm cancer clinical trials was conducted to explore the frequency of DA use in oncology. Multi-arm phase III clinical trials of at least 100 patients per arm, published in 13 major oncology journals from 1995-2005 were manually reviewed. Information about reported use of DA methods, or randomization via random permuted blocks (PB), was extracted along with trial characteristics. Of 476 published clinical trials, 112 (23.5%) reported using some form of DA method, while 103 (21.6%) reported using PB methods. Most trials (403 or 84.7%) reported stratifying on at least one baseline factor. The mean number of stratification factors was 2.70 per trial, and 78.6% of DA trials reported 3 or more stratification factors compared with 30.2% of non-DA trials (p < 0.001). The frequency of DA use increased over time, with 20.2%, 21.3%, 25.8%, 28.8% and 38.9% of trials reported use in 1995-2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively. Use of DA methods was more frequently reported in trials involving an academic co-operative group (28.4% vs. 13.8%), however, no difference was observed between industry-funded and other-funded trials (24.0% vs. 23.2%) or geographical region (19.7% of North American trials, 26.2% of European trials and 21.7% of multinational/other trials). As a retrospective analysis, the true frequency of DA use is likely underreported. Few trials gave complete details of the allocation method used, thus it is possible some manuscripts reported incorrect allocation methods. Journals were selected which were assumed to publish most large, multi-arm clinical trials in cancer from 1995-2005, however, some trials were likely reported in journals other than what was reviewed. DA methods are frequently used in multi-arm cancer clinical trials. The use of DA appears to becoming more common over time and are used more frequently when an academic cooperative group is involved. No relationship between industry funded trials or geographic region and allocation method was observed. Clinical Trials 2010; 7: 227-234. http://ctj.sagepub.com.

DUAL STATE-PARAMETER UPDATING SCHEME ON A CONCEPTUAL HYDROLOGIC MODEL USING SEQUENTIAL MONTE CARLO FILTERS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Shiiba, Michiharu; Kim, Sunmin

Applications of data assimilation techniques have been widely used to improve upon the predictability of hydrologic modeling. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) filters, known as "particle filters" provide the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. This paper proposes a dual state-parameter updating scheme (DUS) based on SMC methods to estimate both state and parameter variables of a hydrologic model. We introduce a kernel smoothing method for the robust estimation of uncertain model parameters in the DUS. The applicability of the dual updating scheme is illustrated using the implementation of the storage function model on a middle-sized Japanese catchment. We also compare performance results of DUS combined with various SMC methods, such as SIR, ASIR and RPF.

Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelaro, Ronald

2012-01-01

The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems

MODIS Data Assimilation in the CROPGRO model for improving soybean yield estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richetti, J.; Monsivais-Huertero, A.; Ahmad, I.; Judge, J.

2017-12-01

Soybean is one of the main agricultural commodities in the world. Thus, having better estimates of its agricultural production is important. Improving the soybean crop models in Brazil is crucial for better understanding of the soybean market and enhancing decision making, because Brazil is the second largest soybean producer in the world, Parana state is responsible for almost 20% of it, and by itself would be the fourth greatest soybean producer in the world. Data assimilation techniques provide a method to improve spatio-temporal continuity of crops through integration of remotely sensed observations and crop growth models. This study aims to use MODIS EVI to improve DSSAT-CROPGRO soybean yield estimations in the Parana state, southern Brazil. The method uses the Ensemble Kalman filter which assimilates MODIS Terra and Aqua combined products (MOD13Q1 and MYD13Q1) into the CROPGRO model to improve the agricultural production estimates through update of light interception data over time. Expected results will be validated with monitored commercial farms during the period of 2013-2014.

Sampling strategies based on singular vectors for assimilated models in ocean forecasting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fattorini, Maria; Brandini, Carlo; Ortolani, Alberto

2016-04-01

Meteorological and oceanographic models do need observations, not only as a ground truth element to verify the quality of the models, but also to keep model forecast error acceptable: through data assimilation techniques which merge measured and modelled data, natural divergence of numerical solutions from reality can be reduced / controlled and a more reliable solution - called analysis - is computed. Although this concept is valid in general, its application, especially in oceanography, raises many problems due to three main reasons: the difficulties that have ocean models in reaching an acceptable state of equilibrium, the high measurements cost and the difficulties in realizing them. The performances of the data assimilation procedures depend on the particular observation networks in use, well beyond the background quality and the used assimilation method. In this study we will present some results concerning the great impact of the dataset configuration, in particular measurements position, on the evaluation of the overall forecasting reliability of an ocean model. The aim consists in identifying operational criteria to support the design of marine observation networks at regional scale. In order to identify the observation network able to minimize the forecast error, a methodology based on Singular Vectors Decomposition of the tangent linear model is proposed. Such a method can give strong indications on the local error dynamics. In addition, for the purpose of avoiding redundancy of information contained in the data, a minimal distance among data positions has been chosen on the base of a spatial correlation analysis of the hydrodynamic fields under investigation. This methodology has been applied for the choice of data positions starting from simplified models, like an ideal double-gyre model and a quasi-geostrophic one. Model configurations and data assimilation are based on available ROMS routines, where a variational assimilation algorithm (4D-var) is included as part of the code These first applications have provided encouraging results in terms of increased predictability time and reduced forecast error, also improving the quality of the analysis used to recover the real circulation patterns from a first guess quite far from the real state.

Data Assimilation of InSAR Surface Deformation Measurements for the Estimation of Reservoir Geomechanical Parameters in the Upper Adriatic Sedimentary Basin, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bau, D. A.; Alzraiee, A.; Ferronato, M.; Gambolati, G.; Teatini, P.

2012-12-01

In the last decades, extensive work has been conducted to estimate land subsidence due the development of deep gas reservoirs situated in the Upper Adriatic sedimentary basin, Italy. These modeling efforts have stemmed from the development finite-element (FE) coupled reservoir-geomechanical models that can simulate the deformation due to the change in pore pressure induced by hydrocarbon production from the geological formations. However, the application of these numerical models has often been limited by the uncertainty in the hydrogeological and poro-mechanical input parameters that are necessary to simulate the impact on ground surface levels of past and/or future gas-field development scenarios. Resolving these uncertainties is of paramount importance, particularly the Northern Adriatic region, given the low elevation above the mean sea level observed along most of the coastline and in the areas surrounding the Venice Lagoon. In this work, we present a state-of-the-art data assimilation (DA) framework to incorporate measurements of displacement of the land surface obtained using Satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques into the response of geomechanical simulation models. In Northern Italy, InSAR measurement campaigns have been carried out over a depleted gas reservoir, referred to as "Lombardia", located at a depth of about 1200 m in the sedimentary basin of the Po River plain. In the last years, this reservoir has been used for underground gas storage and recovery (GSR). Because of the pore pressure periodical alternation produced by GSR, reservoir formations have undergone loading/unloading cycles, experiencing effective stress changes that have induced periodical variation of ground surface levels. Over the Lombardia reservoir, the pattern, magnitude and timing of time-laps land displacements both in the vertical and in the East-West directions have been acquired from 2003 until 2008. The availability of these data opens new pathways towards the improvement of current land subsidence modeling efforts. The DA framework presented here allows for merging, within an automated process, InSAR data into coupled reservoir-geomechanical model results. The framework relies upon Bayesian-based ensemble smoothing algorithms and has the potential to significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with compressibility vs. effective stress constitutive laws, as well as key geomechanical parameters characterizing the orthotropic behavior of the reservoir porous media and their spatial distribution. The DA framework is here applied using InSAR data collected over the "Lombardia" reservoir. The flexibility of smoothing algorithms is such that spatially distributed and possibly correlated measurement errors are accounted for in a relatively straightforward fashion, so that surface deformation data that are considered more reliable can be assigned a larger weight within the model calibration. A series of numerical simulation results are presented in order to assess the capabilities of the DA framework, its effectiveness, advantages and limitations.

Understanding Determinants of Consumer Mobile Health Usage Intentions, Assimilation, and Channel Preferences

PubMed Central

Chen, Liwei; Pye, Jessica; Baird, Aaron

2013-01-01

Background Consumer use of mobile devices as health service delivery aids (mHealth) is growing, especially as smartphones become ubiquitous. However, questions remain as to how consumer traits, health perceptions, situational characteristics, and demographics may affect consumer mHealth usage intentions, assimilation, and channel preferences. Objective We examine how consumers’ personal innovativeness toward mobile services (PIMS), perceived health conditions, health care availability, health care utilization, demographics, and socioeconomic status affect their (1) mHealth usage intentions and extent of mHealth assimilation, and (2) preference for mHealth as a complement or substitute for in-person doctor visits. Methods Leveraging constructs from research in technology acceptance, technology assimilation, consumer behavior, and health informatics, we developed a cross-sectional online survey to study determinants of consumers’ mHealth usage intentions, assimilation, and channel preferences. Data were collected from 1132 nationally representative US consumers and analyzed by using moderated multivariate regressions and ANOVA. Results The results indicate that (1) 430 of 1132 consumers in our sample (37.99%) have started using mHealth, (2) a larger quantity of consumers are favorable to using mHealth as a complement to in-person doctor visits (758/1132, 66.96%) than as a substitute (532/1132, 47.00%), and (3) consumers’ PIMS and perceived health conditions have significant positive direct influences on mHealth usage intentions, assimilation, and channel preferences, and significant positive interactive influences on assimilation and channel preferences. The independent variables within the moderated regressions collectively explained 59.70% variance in mHealth usage intentions, 60.41% in mHealth assimilation, 34.29% in preference for complementary use of mHealth, and 45.30% in preference for substitutive use of mHealth. In a follow-up ANOVA examination, we found that those who were more favorable toward using mHealth as a substitute for in-person doctor visits than as a complement indicated stronger intentions to use mHealth (F 1,702=20.14, P<.001) and stronger assimilation of mHealth (F 1,702=41.866, P<.001). Conclusions Multiple predictors are shown to have significant associations with mHealth usage intentions, assimilation, and channel preferences. We suggest that future initiatives to promote mHealth should shift targeting of consumers from coarse demographics to nuanced considerations of individual dispositions toward mobile service innovations, complementary or substitutive channel use preferences, perceived health conditions, health services availability and utilization, demographics, and socioeconomic characteristics. PMID:23912839

Potential of space-borne GNSS reflectometry to constrain simulations of the ocean circulation. A case study for the South African current system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saynisch, Jan; Semmling, Maximilian; Wickert, Jens; Thomas, Maik

2015-11-01

The Agulhas current system transports warm and salty water masses from the Indian Ocean into the Southern Ocean and into the Atlantic. The transports impact past, present, and future climate on local and global scales. The size and variability, however, of the respective transports are still much debated. In this study, an idealized model based twin experiment is used to study whether sea surface height (SSH) anomalies estimated from reflected signals of the Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R) can be used to determine the internal water mass properties and transports of the Agulhas region. A space-borne GNSS-R detector on the International Space Station (ISS) is assumed and simulated. The detector is able to observe daily SSH fields with a spatial resolution of 1-5∘. Depending on reflection geometry, the precision of a single SSH observation is estimated to reach 3 cm (20 cm) when the carrier phase (code delay) information of the reflected GNSS signal is used. The average precision over the Agulhas region is 7 cm (42 cm). The proposed GNSS-R measurements surpass the radar-based satellite altimetry missions in temporal and spatial resolution but are less precise. Using the estimated GNSS-R characteristics, measurements of SSH are generated by sampling a regional nested general circulation model of the South African oceans. The artificial observations are subsequently assimilated with a 4DVAR adjoint data assimilation method into the same ocean model but with a different initial state and forcing. The assimilated and the original, i.e., the sampled model state, are compared to systematically identify improvements and degradations in the model variables that arise due to the assimilation of GNSS-R based SSH observations. We show that SSH and the independent, i.e., not assimilated model variables velocity, temperature, and salinity improve by the assimilation of GNSS-R based SSH observations. After the assimilation of 90 days of SSH observations, improvements in the independent variables cover the whole water column. Locally, up to 39 % of the original model state are recovered. Shorter assimilation windows result in enhanced reproduction of the observed and assimilated SSH but are accompanied by an insufficient or wrong recovery of sub-surface water properties. The assimilation of real GNSS-R observations, when available, and consequently the estimation of Agulhas water mass properties and the leakage of heat and salt into the Atlantic will benefit from this model-based study.

Simplification of the Kalman filter for meteorological data assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, Dick P.

1991-01-01

The paper proposes a new statistical method of data assimilation that is based on a simplification of the Kalman filter equations. The forecast error covariance evolution is approximated simply by advecting the mass-error covariance field, deriving the remaining covariances geostrophically, and accounting for external model-error forcing only at the end of each forecast cycle. This greatly reduces the cost of computation of the forecast error covariance. In simulations with a linear, one-dimensional shallow-water model and data generated artificially, the performance of the simplified filter is compared with that of the Kalman filter and the optimal interpolation (OI) method. The simplified filter produces analyses that are nearly optimal, and represents a significant improvement over OI.

Application of Observed Precipitation in NCEP Global and Regional Data Assimilation Systems, Including Reanalysis and Land Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, K. E.

2006-12-01

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global precipitation analyses by other institutions. Other global precipitation analyses produced by other methodologies are also used by EMC in certain applications, such as CPC's well-known satellite-IR based technique known as "GPI", and satellite-microwave based estimates from NESDIS or NASA. Finally, the presentation will cover the three assimilation methods used by EMC to assimilate precipitation data, including 1) 3D-VAR variational assimilation in NCEP's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), 2) direct insertion of precipitation-inferred vertical latent heating profiles in NCEP's N. American Data Assimilation System (NDAS) and its N. American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) counterpart, and 3) direct use of observed precipitation to drive the Noah land model component of NCEP's Global and N. American Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS and NLDAS). In the applications of precipitation analyses in data assimilation at NCEP, the analyses are temporally disaggregated to hourly or less using time-weights calculated from A) either radar-based estimates or an analysis of hourly gauge-observations for the CONUS-domain daily precipitation analyses, or B) global model forecasts of 6-hourly precipitation (followed by linear interpolation to hourly or less) for the global CMAP precipitation analysis.

Data Assimilation on a Quantum Annealing Computer: Feasibility and Scalability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, G. S.; Halem, M.; Chapman, D. R.; Pelissier, C. S.

2014-12-01

Data assimilation is one of the ubiquitous and computationally hard problems in the Earth Sciences. In particular, ensemble-based methods require a large number of model evaluations to estimate the prior probability density over system states, and variational methods require adjoint calculations and iteration to locate the maximum a posteriori solution in the presence of nonlinear models and observation operators. Quantum annealing computers (QAC) like the new D-Wave housed at the NASA Ames Research Center can be used for optimization and sampling, and therefore offers a new possibility for efficiently solving hard data assimilation problems. Coding on the QAC is not straightforward: a problem must be posed as a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) and mapped to a spherical Chimera graph. We have developed a method for compiling nonlinear 4D-Var problems on the D-Wave that consists of five steps: Emulating the nonlinear model and/or observation function using radial basis functions (RBF) or Chebyshev polynomials. Truncating a Taylor series around each RBF kernel. Reducing the Taylor polynomial to a quadratic using ancilla gadgets. Mapping the real-valued quadratic to a fixed-precision binary quadratic. Mapping the fully coupled binary quadratic to a partially coupled spherical Chimera graph using ancilla gadgets. At present the D-Wave contains 512 qbits (with 1024 and 2048 qbit machines due in the next two years); this machine size allows us to estimate only 3 state variables at each satellite overpass. However, QAC's solve optimization problems using a physical (quantum) system, and therefore do not require iterations or calculation of model adjoints. This has the potential to revolutionize our ability to efficiently perform variational data assimilation, as the size of these computers grows in the coming years.

Water flux characterization through hydraulic head and temperature data assimilation: Numerical modeling and sandbox experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, Lei; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Chen, Cheng; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

2018-03-01

Spatial distribution of groundwater recharge/discharge fluxes has an important impact on mass and energy exchanges in shallow streambeds. During the last two decades, extensive studies have been devoted to the quantification of one-dimensional (1-D) vertical exchange fluxes. Nevertheless, few studies were conducted to characterize two-dimensional (2-D) heterogeneous flux fields that commonly exist in real-world cases. In this study, we used an iterative ensemble smoother (IES) to quantify the spatial distribution of 2-D exchange fluxes by assimilating hydraulic head and temperature measurements. Four assimilation scenarios corresponding to different potential field applications were tested. In the first three scenarios, the heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields were first inferred from hydraulic head and/or temperature measurements, and then the flux fields were derived through Darcy's law using the estimated conductivity fields. In the fourth scenario, the flux fields were estimated directly from the temperature measurements, which is more efficient and especially suitable for the situation that a complete knowledge of flow boundary conditions is unavailable. We concluded that, the best estimation could be achieved through jointly assimilating hydraulic head and temperature measurements, and temperature data were superior to the head data when they were used independently. Overall, the IES method provided more robust and accurate vertical flux estimations than those given by the widely used analytical solution-based methods. Furthermore, IES gave reasonable uncertainty estimations, which were unavailable in traditional methods. Since temperature can be accurately monitored with high spatial and temporal resolutions, the coupling of heat tracing techniques and IES provides promising potential in quantifying complex exchange fluxes under field conditions.

Sequential data assimilation for a distributed hydrologic model considering different time scale of internal processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.; Kim, S.

2011-12-01

Applications of the sequential data assimilation methods have been increasing in hydrology to reduce uncertainty in the model prediction. In a distributed hydrologic model, there are many types of state variables and each variable interacts with each other based on different time scales. However, the framework to deal with the delayed response, which originates from different time scale of hydrologic processes, has not been thoroughly addressed in the hydrologic data assimilation. In this study, we propose the lagged filtering scheme to consider the lagged response of internal states in a distributed hydrologic model using two filtering schemes; particle filtering (PF) and ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF). The EnKF is one of the widely used sub-optimal filters implementing an efficient computation with limited number of ensemble members, however, still based on Gaussian approximation. PF can be an alternative in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions involved. In case of PF, advanced particle regularization scheme is implemented together to preserve the diversity of the particle system. In case of EnKF, the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) are implemented. Each filtering method is parallelized and implemented in the high performance computing system. A distributed hydrologic model, the water and energy transfer processes (WEP) model, is applied for the Katsura River catchment, Japan to demonstrate the applicability of proposed approaches. Forecasted results via PF and EnKF are compared and analyzed in terms of the prediction accuracy and the probabilistic adequacy. Discussions are focused on the prospects and limitations of each data assimilation method.

A sequential data assimilation approach for the joint reconstruction of mantle convection and surface tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocher, M.; Coltice, N.; Fournier, A.; Tackley, P. J.

2016-01-01

With the progress of mantle convection modelling over the last decade, it now becomes possible to solve for the dynamics of the interior flow and the surface tectonics to first order. We show here that tectonic data (like surface kinematics and seafloor age distribution) and mantle convection models with plate-like behaviour can in principle be combined to reconstruct mantle convection. We present a sequential data assimilation method, based on suboptimal schemes derived from the Kalman filter, where surface velocities and seafloor age maps are not used as boundary conditions for the flow, but as data to assimilate. Two stages (a forecast followed by an analysis) are repeated sequentially to take into account data observed at different times. Whenever observations are available, an analysis infers the most probable state of the mantle at this time, considering a prior guess (supplied by the forecast) and the new observations at hand, using the classical best linear unbiased estimate. Between two observation times, the evolution of the mantle is governed by the forward model of mantle convection. This method is applied to synthetic 2-D spherical annulus mantle cases to evaluate its efficiency. We compare the reference evolutions to the estimations obtained by data assimilation. Two parameters control the behaviour of the scheme: the time between two analyses, and the amplitude of noise in the synthetic observations. Our technique proves to be efficient in retrieving temperature field evolutions provided the time between two analyses is ≲10 Myr. If the amplitude of the a priori error on the observations is large (30 per cent), our method provides a better estimate of surface tectonics than the observations, taking advantage of the information within the physics of convection.

Lightning Forecasts and Data Assimilation into Numerical Weather Prediction Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacGorman, D. R.; Mansell, E. R.; Fierro, A.; Ziegler, C.

2012-12-01

This presentation reviews two aspects of lightning in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: forecasting lightning and assimilating lightning data into NWP models to improve weather forecasts. One of the earliest routine forecasts of lightning was developed for fire weather operations. This approach used a multi-parameter regression analysis of archived cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data and archived NWP data to optimize the combination of model state variables to use in forecast equations for various CG rates. Since then, understanding of how storms produce lightning has improved greatly. As the treatment of ice in microphysics packages used by NWP models has improved and the horizontal resolution of models has begun approaching convection-permitting scales (with convection-resolving scales on the horizon), it is becoming possible to use this improved understanding in NWP models to predict lightning more directly. An important role for data assimilation in NWP models is to depict the location, timing, and spatial extent of thunderstorms during model spin-up so that the effects of prior convection that can strongly influence future thunderstorm activity, such as updrafts and outflow boundaries, can be included in the initial state of a NWP model run. Radar data have traditionally been used, but systems that map lightning activity with varying degrees of coverage, detail, and detection efficiency are now available routinely over large regions and reveal information about storms that is complementary to the information provided by radar. Because data from lightning mapping systems are compact, easily handled, and reliably indicate the location and timing of thunderstorms, even in regions with little or no radar coverage, several groups have investigated techniques for assimilating these data into NWP models. This application will become even more valuable with the launch of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper on the GOES-R satellite, which will extend routine coverage even farther into remote regions and provides the most promising means for routine thunderstorm detection over oceans. On-going research is continually expanding the methods used to assimilate lightning data, which began with simple techniques for assimilating CG data and now are being extended to assimilate total lightning data. Most approaches either have used the lightning data simply to indicate where the subgrid scale convective parameterization of a model should produce deep convection or have used the lightning data to indicate how to modify a model variable related to thunderstorms, such as rainfall rate or water vapor mixing ratio. The developing methods for explicitly predicting lightning activity provide another, more direct means for assimilating total lightning data, besides providing information valuable to the general public and to many governmental and commercial enterprises. Such a direct approach could be particularly useful for ensemble techniques used to produce probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts.

Data Synthesis and Data Assimilation at Global Change Experiments and Fluxnet Toward Improving Land Process Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi

The project was conducted during the period from 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2017 with three major tasks: (1) data synthesis and development of data assimilation (DA) techniques to constrain modeled ecosystem feedback to climate change; (2) applications of DA techniques to improve process models at different scales from ecosystem to regions and the globe; and 3) improvements of modeling soil carbon (C) dynamics by land surface models. During this period, we have synthesized published data from soil incubation experiments (e.g., Chen et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016; Feng et al., 2016), global change experiments (e.g., Li et al., 2013; Shi etmore » al., 2015, 2016; Liang et al., 2016) and fluxnet (e.g., Niu et al., 2012., Xia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016). These data have been organized into multiple data products and have been used to identify general mechanisms and estimate parameters for model improvement. We used the data sets that we collected and the DA techniques to improve model performance of both ecosystem models and global land models. The objectives are: 1) to improve model simulations of litter and soil carbon storage (e.g., Schädel et al., 2013; Hararuk and Luo, 2014; Hararuk et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015); 2) to explore the effects of CO 2, warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., van Groenigen et al., 2014; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Feng et al., 2017); and 3) to estimate parameters variability in different ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 2016). We developed a traceability framework, which was based on matrix approaches and decomposed the modeled steady-state terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage capacity into four can trace the difference in ecosystem carbon storage capacity among different biomes to four traceable components: net primary productivity (NPP), baseline C residence times, environmental scalars and climate forcing (Xia et al., 2013). With this framework, we can diagnose the differences in modeled carbon storage across ecosystems, biomes, and models. This framework has been successfully implemented by several global land models, such as CABLE (Xia et al., 2013), LPJ-GUESS (Ahlström et al., 2015), CLM (Hararuk et al., 2014; Huang et al., 2017, submitted; Shi et al., 2017, submitted), and ORCHIDEE (Huang et al., 2017, unpublished). Moreover, we have identified the theoretical foundation of the determinants of transient C storage dynamics by adding another term, C storage potential, to the steady-state traceability framework (Luo et al., 2017). The theoretical foundation of transient C storage dynamics has been applied to develop a transient traceability framework to explore the traceable components of transient C storage dynamics responded to the rising CO 2 and climate change in the two contrasting ecosystem types Duke needleleaved forest and Harvard deciduous broadleaved forest (Jiang et al., 2017, in revision). Overall, with the data synthesis, data assimilation techniques, and the steady-state and transient traceability frameworks, we have greatly improved land process models for predicting responses and feedback of terrestrial C dynamics to global change. The matrix approaches has the potential to be applied in theoretical research on nitrogen and phosphorus cycle, and therefore, the coupling of carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus.« less

Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation Using the Adjoint Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Jian-Wen

The calculus of variations is used to confirm that variational four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) using the adjoint method can be implemented when the numerical model equations have a finite number of first-order discontinuous points. These points represent the on/off switches associated with physical processes, for which the Jacobian matrix of the model equation does not exist. Numerical evidence suggests that, in some situations when the adjoint method is used for FDDA, the temperature field retrieved using horizontal wind data is numerically not unique. A physical interpretation of this type of non-uniqueness of the retrieval is proposed in terms of energetics. The adjoint equations of a numerical model can also be used for model-parameter estimation. A general computational procedure is developed to determine the size and distribution of any internal model parameter. The procedure is then applied to a one-dimensional shallow -fluid model in the context of analysis-nudging FDDA: the weighting coefficients used by the Newtonian nudging technique are determined. The sensitivity of these nudging coefficients to the optimal objectives and constraints is investigated. Experiments of FDDA using the adjoint method are conducted using the dry version of the hydrostatic Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM4) and its adjoint. The minimization procedure converges and the initialization experiment is successful. Temperature-retrieval experiments involving an assimilation of the horizontal wind are also carried out using the adjoint of MM4.

Validation of a Wave Data Assimilation System Based on SWAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flampourisi, Stylianos; Veeramony, Jayaram; Orzech, Mark D.; Ngodock, Hans E.

2013-04-01

SWAN is one of the most broadly used models for wave predictions in the nearshore, with known and extensively studied limitations due to the physics and/or to the numerical implementation. In order to improve the performance of the model, a 4DVAR data assimilation system based on a tangent linear code and the corresponding adjoint from the numerical SWAN model has been developed at NRL(Orzech et. al., 2013), by implementing the methodology of Bennett 2002. The assimilation system takes into account the nonlinear triad and quadruplet interactions, depth-limited breaking, wind forcing, bottom friction and white-capping. Using conjugate gradient method, the assimilation system minimizes a quadratic penalty functional (which represents the overall error of the simulation) and generates the correction of the forward simulation in spatial, temporal and spectral domain. The weights are given to the output of the adjoint by calculating the covariance to an ensemble of forward simulations according to Evensen 2009. This presentation will focus on the extension of the system to a weak-constrainted data assimilation system and on the extensive validation of the system by using wave spectra for forcing, assimilation and validation, from FRF Duck, North Carolina, during August 2011. During this period, at the 17 m waverider buoy location, the wind speed was up to 35 m/s (due to Hurricane Irene) and the significant wave height varied from 0.5 m to 6 m and the peak period between 5 s and 18 s. In general, this study shows significant improvement of the integrated spectral properties, but the main benefit of assimilating the wave spectra (and not only their integrated properties) is that the accurate simulation of separated, in frequency and in direction, wave systems is possible even nearshore, where non-linear phenomena are dominant. The system is ready to be used for more precise reanalysis of the wave climate and climate variability, and determination of coastal hazards in regional or local scales, in case of available wave data. References: Orzech, M.D., J. Veeramony, and H.E. Ngodock, 2013: A variational assimilation system for nearshore wave modeling. J. Atm. & Oc. Tech., in press.

Towards Improved High-Resolution Land Surface Hydrologic Reanalysis Using a Physically-Based Hydrologic Model and Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Davis, K. J.; Zhang, F.; Duffy, C.; Yu, X.

2014-12-01

A coupled physically based land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM, has been developed by incorporating a land surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land surface scheme is adapted from the Noah land surface model. Flux-PIHM has been implemented and manually calibrated at the Shale Hills watershed (0.08 km2) in central Pennsylvania. Model predictions of discharge, point soil moisture, point water table depth, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and soil temperature show good agreement with observations. When calibrated only using discharge, and soil moisture and water table depth at one point, Flux-PIHM is able to resolve the observed 101 m scale soil moisture pattern at the Shale Hills watershed when an appropriate map of soil hydraulic properties is provided. A Flux-PIHM data assimilation system has been developed by incorporating EnKF for model parameter and state estimation. Both synthetic and real data assimilation experiments have been performed at the Shale Hills watershed. Synthetic experiment results show that the data assimilation system is able to simultaneously provide accurate estimates of multiple parameters. In the real data experiment, the EnKF estimated parameters and manually calibrated parameters yield similar model performances, but the EnKF method significantly decreases the time and labor required for calibration. The data requirements for accurate Flux-PIHM parameter estimation via data assimilation using synthetic observations have been tested. Results show that by assimilating only in situ outlet discharge, soil water content at one point, and the land surface temperature averaged over the whole watershed, the data assimilation system can provide an accurate representation of watershed hydrology. Observations of these key variables are available with national and even global spatial coverage (e.g., MODIS surface temperature, SMAP soil moisture, and the USGS gauging stations). National atmospheric reanalysis products, soil databases and land cover databases (e.g., NLDAS-2, SSURGO, NLCD) can provide high resolution forcing and input data. Therefore the Flux-PIHM data assimilation system could be readily expanded to other watersheds to provide regional scale land surface and hydrologic reanalysis with high spatial temporal resolution.

Acclimation of Foliar Respiration and Photosynthesis in Response to Experimental Warming in a Temperate Steppe in Northern China

PubMed Central

Chi, Yonggang; Xu, Ming; Shen, Ruichang; Yang, Qingpeng; Huang, Bingru; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-01-01

Background Thermal acclimation of foliar respiration and photosynthesis is critical for projection of changes in carbon exchange of terrestrial ecosystems under global warming. Methodology/Principal Findings A field manipulative experiment was conducted to elevate foliar temperature (T leaf) by 2.07°C in a temperate steppe in northern China. R d/T leaf curves (responses of dark respiration to T leaf), A n/T leaf curves (responses of light-saturated net CO2 assimilation rates to T leaf), responses of biochemical limitations and diffusion limitations in gross CO2 assimilation rates (A g) to T leaf, and foliar nitrogen (N) concentration in Stipa krylovii Roshev. were measured in 2010 (a dry year) and 2011 (a wet year). Significant thermal acclimation of R d to 6-year experimental warming was found. However, A n had a limited ability to acclimate to a warmer climate regime. Thermal acclimation of R d was associated with not only the direct effects of warming, but also the changes in foliar N concentration induced by warming. Conclusions/Significance Warming decreased the temperature sensitivity (Q 10) of the response of R d/A g ratio to T leaf. Our findings may have important implications for improving ecosystem models in simulating carbon cycles and advancing understanding on the interactions between climate change and ecosystem functions. PMID:23457574

Volcanic Ash Data Assimilation System for Atmospheric Transport Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, K.; Shimbori, T.; Sato, E.; Tokumoto, T.; Hayashi, Y.; Hashimoto, A.

2017-12-01

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has two operations for volcanic ash forecasts, which are Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast (VAFF) and Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA). In these operations, the forecasts are calculated by atmospheric transport models including the advection process, the turbulent diffusion process, the gravitational fall process and the deposition process (wet/dry). The initial distribution of volcanic ash in the models is the most important but uncertain factor. In operations, the model of Suzuki (1983) with many empirical assumptions is adopted to the initial distribution. This adversely affects the reconstruction of actual eruption plumes.We are developing a volcanic ash data assimilation system using weather radars and meteorological satellite observation, in order to improve the initial distribution of the atmospheric transport models. Our data assimilation system is based on the three-dimensional variational data assimilation method (3D-Var). Analysis variables are ash concentration and size distribution parameters which are mutually independent. The radar observation is expected to provide three-dimensional parameters such as ash concentration and parameters of ash particle size distribution. On the other hand, the satellite observation is anticipated to provide two-dimensional parameters of ash clouds such as mass loading, top height and particle effective radius. In this study, we estimate the thickness of ash clouds using vertical wind shear of JMA numerical weather prediction, and apply for the volcanic ash data assimilation system.

The Improvement of Spatial-Temporal PM2.5 Resolution in Taiwan by Using Data Assimilation Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yong-Qing; Lin, Yuan-Chien

2017-04-01

Forecasting air pollution concentration, e.g., the concentration of PM2.5, is of great significance to protect human health and the environment. Accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentrations is limited in number and the data quality of air quality monitoring stations. The spatial and temporal variations of PM2.5 concentrations are measured by 76 National Air Quality Monitoring Stations (built by the TW-EPA) in Taiwan. The National Air Quality Monitoring Stations are costly and scarce because of the highly precise instrument and their size. Therefore, many places still out of the range of National Air Quality Monitoring Stations. Recently, there are an enormous number of portable air quality sensors called "AirBox" developed jointly by the Taiwan government and a private company. By virtue of its price and portative, the AirBox can provide higher resolution of space-time PM2.5 measurement. However, the spatiotemporal distribution and data quality are different between AirBox and National Air Quality Monitoring Stations. To integrate the heterogeneous PM2.5 data, the data assimilation method should be performed before further analysis. In this study, we propose a data assimilation method based on Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), which is a variant of classic Kalman Filter, can be used to combine additional heterogeneous data from different source while modeling to improve the estimation of spatial-temporal PM2.5 concentration. The assimilation procedure uses the advantages of the two kinds of heterogeneous data and merges them to produce the final estimation. The results have shown that by combining AirBox PM2.5 data as additional information in our model based EnKF can bring the better estimation of spatial-temporal PM2.5 concentration and improve the it's space-time resolution. Under the approach proposed in this study, higher spatial-temporal resoultion could provide a very useful information for a better spatial-temporal data analysis and further environmental management, such as air pollution source localization and micro-scale air pollution analysis. Keywords: PM2.5, Data Assimilation, Ensemble Kalman Filter, Air Quality

Improving Incremental Balance in the GSI 3DVAR Analysis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Errico, Ronald M.; Yang, Runhua; Kleist, Daryl T.; Parrish, David F.; Derber, John C.; Treadon, Russ

2008-01-01

The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system is a unified global/regional 3DVAR analysis code that has been under development for several years at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center. It has recently been implemented into operations at NCEP in both the global and North American data assimilation systems (GDAS and NDAS). An important aspect of this development has been improving the balance of the analysis produced by GSI. The improved balance between variables has been achieved through the inclusion of a Tangent Linear Normal Mode Constraint (TLNMC). The TLNMC method has proven to be very robust and effective. The TLNMC as part of the global GSI system has resulted in substantial improvement in data assimilation both at NCEP and at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO).

Optimizing Tsunami Forecast Model Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Nyland, D. L.; Huang, P. Y.

2015-12-01

Recent tsunamis provide a means to determine the accuracy that can be expected of real-time tsunami forecast models. Forecast accuracy using two different tsunami forecast models are compared for seven events since 2006 based on both real-time application and optimized, after-the-fact "forecasts". Lessons learned by comparing the forecast accuracy determined during an event to modified applications of the models after-the-fact provide improved methods for real-time forecasting for future events. Variables such as source definition, data assimilation, and model scaling factors are examined to optimize forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy is also compared for direct forward modeling based on earthquake source parameters versus accuracy obtained by assimilating sea level data into the forecast model. Results show that including assimilated sea level data into the models increases accuracy by approximately 15% for the events examined.

Downscaling ocean conditions: Experiments with a quasi-geostrophic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, A.; Thompson, K. R.

2013-12-01

The predictability of small-scale ocean variability, given the time history of the associated large-scales, is investigated using a quasi-geostrophic model of two wind-driven gyres separated by an unstable, mid-ocean jet. Motivated by the recent theoretical study of Henshaw et al. (2003), we propose a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large-scale in order to recover the small-scale details of the quasi-geostrophic circulation. The similarity of this method to the spectral nudging of limited area atmospheric models is discussed. Results from the spectral nudging of the quasi-geostrophic model, and an independent multivariate regression-based approach, show that important features of the ocean circulation, including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and the associated pinch-off eddies, can be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scale modes. We next propose a hybrid approach for assimilating both the large-scales and additional observed time series from a limited number of locations that alone are too sparse to recover the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques. The hybrid approach improved significantly the recovery of the small-scales. The results highlight the importance of the coupling between length scales in downscaling applications, and the value of assimilating limited point observations after the large-scales have been set correctly. The application of the hybrid and spectral nudging to practical ocean forecasting, and projecting changes in ocean conditions on climate time scales, is discussed briefly.

A Multigrid NLS-4DVar Data Assimilation Scheme with Advanced Research WRF (ARW)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Tian, X.

2017-12-01

The motions of the atmosphere have multiscale properties in space and/or time, and the background error covariance matrix (Β) should thus contain error information at different correlation scales. To obtain an optimal analysis, the multigrid three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme is used widely when sequentially correcting errors from large to small scales. However, introduction of the multigrid technique into four-dimensional variational data assimilation is not easy, due to its strong dependence on the adjoint model, which has extremely high computational costs in data coding, maintenance, and updating. In this study, the multigrid technique was introduced into the nonlinear least-squares four-dimensional variational assimilation (NLS-4DVar) method, which is an advanced four-dimensional ensemble-variational method that can be applied without invoking the adjoint models. The multigrid NLS-4DVar (MG-NLS-4DVar) scheme uses the number of grid points to control the scale, with doubling of this number when moving from a coarse to a finer grid. Furthermore, the MG-NLS-4DVar scheme not only retains the advantages of NLS-4DVar, but also sufficiently corrects multiscale errors to achieve a highly accurate analysis. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed MG-NLS-4DVar scheme were evaluated by several groups of observing system simulation experiments using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model. MG-NLS-4DVar outperformed NLS-4DVar, with a lower computational cost.

Data assimilation experiments using the diffusive back and forth nudging for the NEMO ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruggiero, G. A.; Ourmières, Y.; Cosme, E.; Blum, J.; Auroux, D.; Verron, J.

2014-07-01

The Diffusive Back and Forth Nudging (DBFN) is an easy-to-implement iterative data assimilation method based on the well-known Nudging method. It consists in a sequence of forward and backward model integrations, within a given time window, both of them using a feedback term to the observations. Therefore in the DBFN, the Nudging asymptotic behavior is translated into an infinite number of iterations within a bounded time domain. In this method, the backward integration is carried out thanks to what is called backward model, which is basically the forward model with reversed time step sign. To maintain numeral stability the diffusion terms also have their sign reversed, giving a diffusive character to the algorithm. In this article the DBFN performance to control a primitive equation ocean model is investigated. In this kind of model non-resolved scales are modeled by diffusion operators which dissipate energy that cascade from large to small scales. Thus, in this article the DBFN approximations and their consequences on the data assimilation system set-up are analyzed. Our main result is that the DBFN may provide results which are comparable to those produced by a 4Dvar implementation with a much simpler implementation and a shorter CPU time for convergence.

Lessons Learned from Assimilating Altimeter Data into a Coupled General Circulation Model with the GMAO Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian; Vernieres, Guillaume; Rienecker, Michele; Jacob, Jossy; Kovach, Robin

2011-01-01

Satellite altimetry measurements have provided global, evenly distributed observations of the ocean surface since 1993. However, the difficulties introduced by the presence of model biases and the requirement that data assimilation systems extrapolate the sea surface height (SSH) information to the subsurface in order to estimate the temperature, salinity and currents make it difficult to optimally exploit these measurements. This talk investigates the potential of the altimetry data assimilation once the biases are accounted for with an ad hoc bias estimation scheme. Either steady-state or state-dependent multivariate background-error covariances from an ensemble of model integrations are used to address the problem of extrapolating the information to the sub-surface. The GMAO ocean data assimilation system applied to an ensemble of coupled model instances using the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 is used in the investigation. To model the background error covariances, the system relies on a hybrid ensemble approach in which a small number of dynamically evolved model trajectories is augmented on the one hand with past instances of the state vector along each trajectory and, on the other, with a steady state ensemble of error estimates from a time series of short-term model forecasts. A state-dependent adaptive error-covariance localization and inflation algorithm controls how the SSH information is extrapolated to the sub-surface. A two-step predictor corrector approach is used to assimilate future information. Independent (not-assimilated) temperature and salinity observations from Argo floats are used to validate the assimilation. A two-step projection method in which the system first calculates a SSH increment and then projects this increment vertically onto the temperature, salt and current fields is found to be most effective in reconstructing the sub-surface information. The performance of the system in reconstructing the sub-surface fields is particularly impressive for temperature, but not as satisfactory for salt.

Establishment and analysis of High-Resolution Assimilation Dataset of water-energy cycle over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Xiaohang; Liao, Xiaohan; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping

2015-04-01

For better prediction and understanding of water-energy exchange process and land-atmospheric interaction, the in-situ observed meteorological data which were acquired from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) were assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the monthly Green Vegetation Coverage (GVF) data, which was calculated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of Earth Observing System Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (EOS-MODIS), Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) system were also integrated in the WRF model over China. Further, the High-Resolution Assimilation Dataset of water-energy cycle over China (HRADC) was produced by WRF model. This dataset include 25 km horizontal resolution near surface meteorological data such as air temperature, humidity, ground temperature, and pressure at 19 levels, soil temperature and soil moisture at 4 levels, green vegetation coverage, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and ground heat flux for 3 hours. In this study, we 1) briefly introduce the cycling 3D-Var assimilation method; 2) Compare results of meteorological elements such as 2 m temperature, precipitation and ground temperature generated by the HRADC with the gridded observation data from CMA, and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) output data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). It is found that the results of 2 m temperature were improved compared with the control simulation and has effectively reproduced the observed patterns, and the simulated results of ground temperature, 0-10 cm soil temperature and specific humidity were as much closer to GLDAS outputs. Root mean square errors are reduced in assimilation run than control run, and the assimilation run of ground temperature, 0-10 cm soil temperature, radiation and surface fluxes were agreed well with the GLDAS outputs over China. The HRADC could be used in further research on the long period climatic effects and characteristics of water-energy cycle over China.

Improving Snow Modeling by Assimilating Observational Data Collected by Citizen Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crumley, R. L.; Hill, D. F.; Arendt, A. A.; Wikstrom Jones, K.; Wolken, G. J.; Setiawan, L.

2017-12-01

Modeling seasonal snow pack in alpine environments includes a multiplicity of challenges caused by a lack of spatially extensive and temporally continuous observational datasets. This is partially due to the difficulty of collecting measurements in harsh, remote environments where extreme gradients in topography exist, accompanied by large model domains and inclement weather. Engaging snow enthusiasts, snow professionals, and community members to participate in the process of data collection may address some of these challenges. In this study, we use SnowModel to estimate seasonal snow water equivalence (SWE) in the Thompson Pass region of Alaska while incorporating snow depth measurements collected by citizen scientists. We develop a modeling approach to assimilate hundreds of snow depth measurements from participants in the Community Snow Observations (CSO) project (www.communitysnowobs.org). The CSO project includes a mobile application where participants record and submit geo-located snow depth measurements while working and recreating in the study area. These snow depth measurements are randomly located within the model grid at irregular time intervals over the span of four months in the 2017 water year. This snow depth observation dataset is converted into a SWE dataset by employing an empirically-based, bulk density and SWE estimation method. We then assimilate this data using SnowAssim, a sub-model within SnowModel, to constrain the SWE output by the observed data. Multiple model runs are designed to represent an array of output scenarios during the assimilation process. An effort to present model output uncertainties is included, as well as quantification of the pre- and post-assimilation divergence in modeled SWE. Early results reveal pre-assimilation SWE estimations are consistently greater than the post-assimilation estimations, and the magnitude of divergence increases throughout the snow pack evolution period. This research has implications beyond the Alaskan context because it increases our ability to constrain snow modeling outputs by making use of snow measurements collected by non-expert, citizen scientists.

Moving horizon estimation for assimilating H-SAF remote sensing data into the HBV hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montero, Rodolfo Alvarado; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Krahe, Peter; Lisniak, Dmytro; Sensoy, Aynur; Sorman, A. Arda; Akkol, Bulut

2016-06-01

Remote sensing information has been extensively developed over the past few years including spatially distributed data for hydrological applications at high resolution. The implementation of these products in operational flow forecasting systems is still an active field of research, wherein data assimilation plays a vital role on the improvement of initial conditions of streamflow forecasts. We present a novel implementation of a variational method based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE), in application to the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV, to simultaneously assimilate remotely sensed snow covered area (SCA), snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture (SM) and in situ measurements of streamflow data using large assimilation windows of up to one year. This innovative application of the MHE approach allows to simultaneously update precipitation, temperature, soil moisture as well as upper and lower zones water storages of the conceptual model, within the assimilation window, without an explicit formulation of error covariance matrixes and it enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the agreement of simulated and observed variables. The framework is tested in two data-dense sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. Results show a potential improvement of the lead time performance of streamflow forecasts by using perfect time series of state variables generated by the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model itself. The framework is also tested using new operational data products from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) of EUMETSAT. This study is the first application of H-SAF products to hydrological forecasting systems and it verifies their added value. Results from assimilating H-SAF observations lead to a slight reduction of the streamflow forecast skill in all three cases compared to the assimilation of streamflow data only. On the other hand, the forecast skill of soil moisture shows a significant improvement.

Subsurface characterization with localized ensemble Kalman filter employing adaptive thresholding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delijani, Ebrahim Biniaz; Pishvaie, Mahmoud Reza; Boozarjomehry, Ramin Bozorgmehry

2014-07-01

Ensemble Kalman filter, EnKF, as a Monte Carlo sequential data assimilation method has emerged promisingly for subsurface media characterization during past decade. Due to high computational cost of large ensemble size, EnKF is limited to small ensemble set in practice. This results in appearance of spurious correlation in covariance structure leading to incorrect or probable divergence of updated realizations. In this paper, a universal/adaptive thresholding method is presented to remove and/or mitigate spurious correlation problem in the forecast covariance matrix. This method is, then, extended to regularize Kalman gain directly. Four different thresholding functions have been considered to threshold forecast covariance and gain matrices. These include hard, soft, lasso and Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation (SCAD) functions. Three benchmarks are used to evaluate the performances of these methods. These benchmarks include a small 1D linear model and two 2D water flooding (in petroleum reservoirs) cases whose levels of heterogeneity/nonlinearity are different. It should be noted that beside the adaptive thresholding, the standard distance dependant localization and bootstrap Kalman gain are also implemented for comparison purposes. We assessed each setup with different ensemble sets to investigate the sensitivity of each method on ensemble size. The results indicate that thresholding of forecast covariance yields more reliable performance than Kalman gain. Among thresholding function, SCAD is more robust for both covariance and gain estimation. Our analyses emphasize that not all assimilation cycles do require thresholding and it should be performed wisely during the early assimilation cycles. The proposed scheme of adaptive thresholding outperforms other methods for subsurface characterization of underlying benchmarks.

Tsunami Modeling and Prediction Using a Data Assimilation Technique with Kalman Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnier, G.; Dunham, E. M.

2016-12-01

Earthquake-induced tsunamis cause dramatic damages along densely populated coastlines. It is difficult to predict and anticipate tsunami waves in advance, but if the earthquake occurs far enough from the coast, there may be enough time to evacuate the zones at risk. Therefore, any real-time information on the tsunami wavefield (as it propagates towards the coast) is extremely valuable for early warning systems. After the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, a dense tsunami-monitoring network (S-net) based on cabled ocean-bottom pressure sensors has been deployed along the Pacific coast in Northeastern Japan. Maeda et al. (GRL, 2015) introduced a data assimilation technique to reconstruct the tsunami wavefield in real time by combining numerical solution of the shallow water wave equations with additional terms penalizing the numerical solution for not matching observations. The penalty or gain matrix is determined though optimal interpolation and is independent of time. Here we explore a related data assimilation approach using the Kalman filter method to evolve the gain matrix. While more computationally expensive, the Kalman filter approach potentially provides more accurate reconstructions. We test our method on a 1D tsunami model derived from the Kozdon and Dunham (EPSL, 2014) dynamic rupture simulations of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. For appropriate choices of model and data covariance matrices, the method reconstructs the tsunami wavefield prior to wave arrival at the coast. We plan to compare the Kalman filter method to the optimal interpolation method developed by Maeda et al. (GRL, 2015) and then to implement the method for 2D.

Application Of Multi-grid Method On China Seas' Temperature Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Xie, Y.; He, Z.; Liu, K.; Han, G.; Ma, J.; Li, D.

2006-12-01

Correlation scales have been used in traditional scheme of 3-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation to estimate the background error covariance for the numerical forecast and reanalysis of atmosphere and ocean for decades. However there are still some drawbacks of this scheme. First, the correlation scales are difficult to be determined accurately. Second, the positive definition of the first-guess error covariance matrix cannot be guaranteed unless the correlation scales are sufficiently small. Xie et al. (2005) indicated that a traditional 3D-Var only corrects some certain wavelength errors and its accuracy depends on the accuracy of the first-guess covariance. And in general, short wavelength error can not be well corrected until long one is corrected and then inaccurate first-guess covariance may mistakenly take long wave error as short wave ones and result in erroneous analysis. For the purpose of quickly minimizing the errors of long and short waves successively, a new 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, called multi-grid data assimilation scheme, is proposed in this paper. By assimilating the shipboard SST and temperature profiles data into a numerical model of China Seas, we applied this scheme in two-month data assimilation and forecast experiment which ended in a favorable result. Comparing with the traditional scheme of 3D-Var, the new scheme has higher forecast accuracy and a lower forecast Root-Mean-Square (RMS) error. Furthermore, this scheme was applied to assimilate the SST of shipboard, AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.0 SST and temperature profiles at the same time, and a ten-month forecast experiment on sea temperature of China Seas was carried out, in which a successful forecast result was obtained. Particularly, the new scheme is demonstrated a great numerical efficiency in these analyses.

Assimilation by Lunar Mare Basalts: Melting of Crustal Material and Dissolution of Anorthite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finnila, A. B.; Hess, P. C.; Rutherford, M. J.

1994-01-01

We discuss techniques for calculating the amount of crustal assimilation possible in lunar magma chambers and dikes based on thermal energy balances, kinetic rates, and simple fluid mechanical constraints. Assuming parent magmas of picritic compositions, we demonstrate the limits on the capacity of such magmas to melt and dissolve wall rock of anorthitic, troctolitic, noritic, and KREEP (quartz monzodiorite) compositions. Significant melting of the plagioclase-rich crustal lithologies requires turbulent convection in the assimilating magma and an efficient method of mixing in the relatively buoyant and viscous new melt. Even when this occurs, the major element chemistry of the picritic magmas will change by less than 1-2 wt %. Diffusion coefficients measured for Al2O3 from an iron-free basalt and an orange glass composition are 10(exp -12) m(exp 2) s(exp -1) at 1340 C and 10(exp -11) m(exp 2) s(exp -1) at 1390 C. These rates are too slow to allow dissolution of plagioclase to significantly affect magma compositions. Picritic magmas can melt significant quantities of KREEP, which suggests that their trace element chemistry may still be affected by assimilation processes; however, mixing viscous melts of KREEP composition with the fluid picritic magmas could be prohibitively difficult. We conclude that only a small part of the total major element chemical variation in the mare basalt and volcanic glass collection is due to assimilation/fractional crystallization processes near the lunar surface. Instead, most of the chemical variation in the lunar basalts and volcanic glasses must result from assimilation at deeper levels or from having distinct source regions in a heterogeneous lunar mantle.

Insights on multivariate updates of physical and biogeochemical ocean variables using an Ensemble Kalman Filter and an idealized model of upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Liuqian; Fennel, Katja; Bertino, Laurent; Gharamti, Mohamad El; Thompson, Keith R.

2018-06-01

Effective data assimilation methods for incorporating observations into marine biogeochemical models are required to improve hindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of the ocean's biogeochemical state. Recent assimilation efforts have shown that updating model physics alone can degrade biogeochemical fields while only updating biogeochemical variables may not improve a model's predictive skill when the physical fields are inaccurate. Here we systematically investigate whether multivariate updates of physical and biogeochemical model states are superior to only updating either physical or biogeochemical variables. We conducted a series of twin experiments in an idealized ocean channel that experiences wind-driven upwelling. The forecast model was forced with biased wind stress and perturbed biogeochemical model parameters compared to the model run representing the "truth". Taking advantage of the multivariate nature of the deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter (DEnKF), we assimilated different combinations of synthetic physical (sea surface height, sea surface temperature and temperature profiles) and biogeochemical (surface chlorophyll and nitrate profiles) observations. We show that when biogeochemical and physical properties are highly correlated (e.g., thermocline and nutricline), multivariate updates of both are essential for improving model skill and can be accomplished by assimilating either physical (e.g., temperature profiles) or biogeochemical (e.g., nutrient profiles) observations. In our idealized domain, the improvement is largely due to a better representation of nutrient upwelling, which results in a more accurate nutrient input into the euphotic zone. In contrast, assimilating surface chlorophyll improves the model state only slightly, because surface chlorophyll contains little information about the vertical density structure. We also show that a degradation of the correlation between observed subsurface temperature and nutrient fields, which has been an issue in several previous assimilation studies, can be reduced by multivariate updates of physical and biogeochemical fields.

Evaluating Snow Data Assimilation Framework for Streamflow Forecasting Applications Using Hindcast Verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2012-12-01

Snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation is a key factor in producing reliable streamflow simulations and forecasts in snow dominated areas. However, measuring or predicting SWE has significant uncertainty. Sequential data assimilation, which updates states using both observed and modeled data based on error estimation, has been shown to reduce streamflow simulation errors but has had limited testing for forecasting applications. In the current study, a snow data assimilation framework integrated with the National Weather System River Forecasting System (NWSRFS) is evaluated for use in ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). Seasonal water supply ESP hindcasts are generated for the North Fork of the American River Basin (NFARB) in northern California. Parameter sets from the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm and the Multistep Automated Calibration Scheme (MACS) are tested both with and without sequential data assimilation. The traditional ESP method considers uncertainty in future climate conditions using historical temperature and precipitation time series to generate future streamflow scenarios conditioned on the current basin state. We include data uncertainty analysis in the forecasting framework through the DREAM-based parameter set which is part of a recently developed Integrated Uncertainty and Ensemble-based data Assimilation framework (ICEA). Extensive verification of all tested approaches is undertaken using traditional forecast verification measures, including root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), volumetric bias, joint distribution, rank probability score (RPS), and discrimination and reliability plots. In comparison to the RFC parameters, the DREAM and MACS sets show significant improvement in volumetric bias in flow. Use of assimilation improves hindcasts of higher flows but does not significantly improve performance in the mid flow and low flow categories.

Capability of GPGPU for Faster Thermal Analysis Used in Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaki, Ryoji; Akita, Takeshi; Shima, Eiji

A thermal mathematical model plays an important role in operations on orbit as well as spacecraft thermal designs. The thermal mathematical model has some uncertain thermal characteristic parameters, such as thermal contact resistances between components, effective emittances of multilayer insulation (MLI) blankets, discouraging make up efficiency and accuracy of the model. A particle filter which is one of successive data assimilation methods has been applied to construct spacecraft thermal mathematical models. This method conducts a lot of ensemble computations, which require large computational power. Recently, General Purpose computing in Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) has been attracted attention in high performance computing. Therefore GPGPU is applied to increase the computational speed of thermal analysis used in the particle filter. This paper shows the speed-up results by using GPGPU as well as the application method of GPGPU.

The Case for Dynamic Assessment in Speech and Language Therapy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hasson, Natalie

2007-01-01

This paper highlights the appeal of dynamic assessment (DA) for speech and language therapists (SLTs), and describes the usefulness of various DA models and methods. It describes the background to DA, and the uses to which DA has been put, by educational psychologists in the UK, and by SLTs in the USA. The research and development of methods of DA…

Atlas Assimilation Patterns in Different Types of Adult Craniocervical Junction Malformations.

PubMed

Ferreira, Edson Dener Zandonadi; Botelho, Ricardo Vieira

2015-11-01

This is a cross-sectional analysis of resonance magnetic images of 111 patients with craniocervical malformations and those of normal subjects. To test the hypothesis that atlas assimilation is associated with basilar invagination (BI) and atlas's anterior arch assimilation is associated with craniocervical instability and type I BI. Atlas assimilation is the most common malformation in the craniocervical junction. This condition has been associated with craniocervical instability and BI in isolated cases. We evaluated midline Magnetic Resonance Images (MRIs) (and/or CT scans) from patients with craniocervical junction malformation and normal subjects. The patients were separated into 3 groups: Chiari type I malformation, BI type I, and type II. The atlas assimilations were classified according to their embryological origins as follows: posterior, anterior, and both arches assimilation. We studied the craniometric values of 111 subjects, 78 with craniocervical junction malformation and 33 without malformations. Of the 78 malformations, 51 patients had Chiari type I and 27 had BI, of whom 10 presented with type I and 17 with type II BI. In the Chiari group, 41 showed no assimilation of the atlas. In the type I BI group, all patients presented with anterior arch assimilation, either in isolation or associated with assimilation of the posterior arch. 63% of the patients with type II BI presented with posterior arch assimilation, either in isolation or associated with anterior arch assimilation. In the control group, no patients had atlas assimilation. Anterior atlas assimilation leads to type I BI. Posterior atlas assimilation more frequently leads to type II BI. Separation in terms of anterior versus posterior atlas assimilation reflects a more accurate understanding of the clinical and embryological differences in craniocervical junction malformations. N/A.

Multifunctional Collaborative Modeling and Analysis Methods in Engineering Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ransom, Jonathan B.; Broduer, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Engineers are challenged to produce better designs in less time and for less cost. Hence, to investigate novel and revolutionary design concepts, accurate, high-fidelity results must be assimilated rapidly into the design, analysis, and simulation process. This assimilation should consider diverse mathematical modeling and multi-discipline interactions necessitated by concepts exploiting advanced materials and structures. Integrated high-fidelity methods with diverse engineering applications provide the enabling technologies to assimilate these high-fidelity, multi-disciplinary results rapidly at an early stage in the design. These integrated methods must be multifunctional, collaborative, and applicable to the general field of engineering science and mechanics. Multifunctional methodologies and analysis procedures are formulated for interfacing diverse subdomain idealizations including multi-fidelity modeling methods and multi-discipline analysis methods. These methods, based on the method of weighted residuals, ensure accurate compatibility of primary and secondary variables across the subdomain interfaces. Methods are developed using diverse mathematical modeling (i.e., finite difference and finite element methods) and multi-fidelity modeling among the subdomains. Several benchmark scalar-field and vector-field problems in engineering science are presented with extensions to multidisciplinary problems. Results for all problems presented are in overall good agreement with the exact analytical solution or the reference numerical solution. Based on the results, the integrated modeling approach using the finite element method for multi-fidelity discretization among the subdomains is identified as most robust. The multiple-method approach is advantageous when interfacing diverse disciplines in which each of the method's strengths are utilized. The multifunctional methodology presented provides an effective mechanism by which domains with diverse idealizations are interfaced. This capability rapidly provides the high-fidelity results needed in the early design phase. Moreover, the capability is applicable to the general field of engineering science and mechanics. Hence, it provides a collaborative capability that accounts for interactions among engineering analysis methods.

Assimilation of surface NO2 and O3 observations into the SILAM chemistry transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vira, J.; Sofiev, M.

2015-02-01

This paper describes the assimilation of trace gas observations into the chemistry transport model SILAM (System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition) using the 3D-Var method. Assimilation results for the year 2012 are presented for the prominent photochemical pollutants ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Both species are covered by the AirBase observation database, which provides the observational data set used in this study. Attention was paid to the background and observation error covariance matrices, which were obtained primarily by the iterative application of a posteriori diagnostics. The diagnostics were computed separately for 2 months representing summer and winter conditions, and further disaggregated by time of day. This enabled the derivation of background and observation error covariance definitions, which included both seasonal and diurnal variation. The consistency of the obtained covariance matrices was verified using χ2 diagnostics. The analysis scores were computed for a control set of observation stations withheld from assimilation. Compared to a free-running model simulation, the correlation coefficient for daily maximum values was improved from 0.8 to 0.9 for O3 and from 0.53 to 0.63 for NO2.

A Systematic Error Correction Method for TOVS Radiances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joiner, Joanna; Rokke, Laurie; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Treatment of systematic errors is crucial for the successful use of satellite data in a data assimilation system. Systematic errors in TOVS radiance measurements and radiative transfer calculations can be as large or larger than random instrument errors. The usual assumption in data assimilation is that observational errors are unbiased. If biases are not effectively removed prior to assimilation, the impact of satellite data will be lessened and can even be detrimental. Treatment of systematic errors is important for short-term forecast skill as well as the creation of climate data sets. A systematic error correction algorithm has been developed as part of a 1D radiance assimilation. This scheme corrects for spectroscopic errors, errors in the instrument response function, and other biases in the forward radiance calculation for TOVS. Such algorithms are often referred to as tuning of the radiances. The scheme is able to account for the complex, air-mass dependent biases that are seen in the differences between TOVS radiance observations and forward model calculations. We will show results of systematic error correction applied to the NOAA 15 Advanced TOVS as well as its predecessors. We will also discuss the ramifications of inter-instrument bias with a focus on stratospheric measurements.

An approximate Kalman filter for ocean data assimilation: An example with an idealized Gulf Stream model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

1995-01-01

A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kalman filter based on approximation of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudomeasurements are examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform an empirical nudging scheme used in a previous study. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.

Assimilation of seasonal chlorophyll and nutrient data into an adjoint three-dimensional ocean carbon cycle model: Sensitivity analysis and ecosystem parameter optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Polzin, Dierk; Winguth, Arne M. E.

2007-03-01

An adjoint method is applied to a three-dimensional global ocean biogeochemical cycle model to optimize the ecosystem parameters on the basis of SeaWiFS surface chlorophyll observation. We showed with identical twin experiments that the model simulated chlorophyll concentration is sensitive to perturbation of phytoplankton and zooplankton exudation, herbivore egestion as fecal pellets, zooplankton grazing, and the assimilation efficiency parameters. The assimilation of SeaWiFS chlorophyll data significantly improved the prediction of chlorophyll concentration, especially in the high-latitude regions. Experiments that considered regional variations of parameters yielded a high seasonal variance of ecosystem parameters in the high latitudes, but a low variance in the tropical regions. These experiments indicate that the adjoint model is, despite the many uncertainties, generally capable to optimize sensitive parameters and carbon fluxes in the euphotic zone. The best fit regional parameters predict a global net primary production of 36 Pg C yr-1, which lies within the range suggested by Antoine et al. (1996). Additional constraints of nutrient data from the World Ocean Atlas showed further reduction in the model-data misfit and that assimilation with extensive data sets is necessary.

An approximate Kalman filter for ocean data assimilation: An example with an idealized Gulf Stream model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

1995-04-01

A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kaiman filter based on approximations of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudomeasurements are examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform an empirical nudging scheme used in a previous study. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.

Development of adaptive observation strategy using retrospective optimal interpolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, N.; Kim, S.; Song, H.; Lim, G.

2011-12-01

Retrospective optimal interpolation (ROI) is a method that is used to minimize cost functions with multiple minima without using adjoint models. Song and Lim (2011) perform the experiments to reduce the computational costs for implementing ROI by transforming the control variables into eigenvectors of background error covariance. We adapt the ROI algorithm to compute sensitivity estimates of severe weather events over the Korean peninsula. The eigenvectors of the ROI algorithm is modified every time the observations are assimilated. This implies that the modified eigenvectors shows the error distribution of control variables which are updated by assimilating observations. So, We can estimate the effects of the specific observations. In order to verify the adaptive observation strategy, High-impact weather over the Korean peninsula is simulated and interpreted using WRF modeling system and sensitive regions for each high-impact weather is calculated. The effects of assimilation for each observation type is discussed.

A new version of variational integrated technology for environmental modeling with assimilation of available data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penenko, Vladimir; Tsvetova, Elena; Penenko, Aleksey

2014-05-01

A modeling technology based on coupled models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry are presented [1-3]. It is the result of application of variational methods in combination with the methods of decomposition and splitting. The idea of Euler's integrating factors combined with technique of adjoint problems is also used. In online technologies, a significant part of algorithmic and computational work consist in solving the problems like convection-diffusion-reaction and in organizing data assimilation techniques based on them. For equations of convection-diffusion, the methodology gives us the unconditionally stable and monotone discrete-analytical schemes in the frames of methods of decomposition and splitting. These schemes are exact for locally one-dimensional problems respect to the spatial variables. For stiff systems of equations describing transformation of gas and aerosol substances, the monotone and stable schemes are also obtained. They are implemented by non- iterative algorithms. By construction, all schemes for different components of state functions are structurally uniform. They are coordinated among themselves in the sense of forward and inverse modeling. Variational principles are constructed taking into account the fact that the behavior of the different dynamic and chemical components of the state function is characterized by high variability and uncertainty. Information on the parameters of models, sources and emission impacts is also not determined precisely. Therefore, to obtain the consistent solutions, we construct methods of the sensitivity theory taking into account the influence of uncertainty. For this purpose, new methods of data assimilation of hydrodynamic fields and gas-aerosol substances measured by different observing systems are proposed. Optimization criteria for data assimilation problems are defined so that they include a set of functionals evaluating the total measure of uncertainties. The latter are explicitly introduced into the equations of the model of processes as desired deterministic control functions. This method of data assimilation with control functions is implemented by direct algorithms. The modeling technology presented here focuses on various scientific and applied problems of environmental prediction and design, including risk assessment in relation to existing and potential sources of natural and anthropogenic influences. The work is partially supported by the Programs No 4 of Presidium RAS and No 3 of Mathematical Department of RAS; by RFBR projects NN 11-01-00187 and 14-01-31482; by Integrating projects of SD RAS No 8 and 35. Our studies are in the line with the goals of COST Action ES1004. References 1. V. Penenko, A.Baklanov, E. Tsvetova and A. Mahura. Direct and Inverse Problems in a Variational Concept of Environmental Modeling, Pure and Applied Geoph. 2012.V.169:447-465. 2. A.V. Penenko, Discrete-analytic schemes for solving an inverse coefficient heat conduction problem in a layered medium with gradient methods, Numerical Analysis and Applications, 2012. V. 5:326-341. 3. V. Penenko, E. Tsvetova. Variational methods for constructing the monotone approximations for atmospheric chemistry models, Numerical analysis and applications, 2013. V. 6: 210-220.

The Impact of Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Near-Surface Observations on the Predictability of Atmospheric Conditions over Complex Terrain: Results from Recent MATERHORN Field Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Z.; Zhang, H.

2013-12-01

Near-surface atmospheric observations are the main conventional observations for weather forecasts. However, in modern numerical weather prediction, the use of surface observations, especially those data over complex terrain, remains a unique challenge. There are fundamental difficulties in assimilating surface observations with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR). In our early study[1] (Pu et al. 2013), a series of observing system simulation experiments was performed with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and compared with 3DVAR for its ability to assimilate surface observations with 3DVAR. Using the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, results demonstrate that the EnKF can overcome some fundamental limitations that 3DVAR has in assimilating surface observations over complex terrain. Specifically, through its flow-dependent background error term, the EnKF produces more realistic analysis increments over complex terrain in general. Over complex terrain, the EnKF clearly performs better than 3DVAR, because it is more capable of handling surface data in the presence of terrain misrepresentation. With this presentation, we further examine the impact of EnKF data assimilation on the predictability of atmospheric conditions over complex terrain with the WRF model and the observations obtained from the most recent field experiments of the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) Program. The MATERHORN program provides comprehensive observations over mountainous regions, allowing the opportunity to study the predictability of atmospheric conditions over complex terrain in great details. Specifically, during fall 2012 and spring 2013, comprehensive observations were collected of soil states, surface energy budgets, near-surface atmospheric conditions, and profiling measurements from multiple platforms (e.g., balloon, lidar, radiosondes, etc.) over Dugway Proving Ground (DPG), Utah. With the near-surface observations and sounding data obtained during the MATERHORN fall 2012 field experiment, a month-long cycled EnKF analysis and forecast was produced with the WRF model and an advanced EnKF data assimilation system. Results are compared with the WRF near real-time forecasting during the same month and a set of analysis with 3DVAR data assimilation. Overall evaluation suggests some useful insights on the impacts of different data assimilation methods, surface and soil states, terrain representation on the predictability of atmospheric conditions over mountainous terrain. Details will be presented. References [1] Pu, Z., H. Zhang, and J. A. Anderson,. 'Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of near-surface observations over complex terrain: Comparison with 3DVAR for short-range forecasts.' Tellus A, vol. 65,19620. 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0. 19620.

A data assimilation system combining CryoSat-2 data and hydrodynamic river models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Raphael; Ridler, Marc-Etienne; Godiksen, Peter Nygaard; Madsen, Henrik; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2018-02-01

There are numerous hydrologic studies using satellite altimetry data from repeat-orbit missions such as Envisat or Jason over rivers. This study is one of the first examples for the combination of altimetry from drifting-ground track satellite missions, namely CryoSat-2, with a river model. CryoSat-2 SARIn Level 2 data is used to improve a 1D hydrodynamic model of the Brahmaputra River in South Asia, which is based on the Saint-Venant equations for unsteady flow and set up in the MIKE HYDRO River software. After calibration of discharge and water level the hydrodynamic model can accurately and bias-free represent the spatio-temporal variations of water levels. A data assimilation framework has been developed and linked with the model. It is a flexible framework that can assimilate water level data which are arbitrarily distributed in time and space. The setup has been used to assimilate CryoSat-2 water level observations over the Assam valley for the years 2010-2015, using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF). Performance improvement in terms of discharge forecasting skill was then evaluated. For experiments with synthetic CryoSat-2 data the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) was improved by up to 32%, whilst for experiments assimilating real data it could be improved by up to 10%. The developed methods are expected to be transferable to other rivers and altimeter missions. The model setup and calibration is based almost entirely on globally available remote sensing data.

A mesoscale hybrid data assimilation system based on the JMA nonhydrostatic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, K.; Kunii, M.; Kawabata, T. T.; Saito, K. K.; Duc, L. L.

2015-12-01

This work evaluates the potential of a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system for predicting severe weather events from a deterministic point of view. This hybrid system is an adjoint-based 4D-Var system using a background error covariance matrix constructed from the mixture of a so-called NMC method and perturbations in a local ensemble transform Kalman filter data assimilation system, both of which are based on the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model. To construct the background error covariance matrix, we investigated two types of schemes. One is a spatial localization scheme and the other is neighboring ensemble approach, which regards the result at a horizontally spatially shifted point in each ensemble member as that obtained from a different realization of ensemble simulation. An assimilation of a pseudo single-observation located to the north of a tropical cyclone (TC) yielded an analysis increment of wind and temperature physically consistent with what is expected for a mature TC in both hybrid systems, whereas an analysis increment in a 4D-Var system using a static background error covariance distorted a structure of the mature TC. Real data assimilation experiments applied to 4 TCs and 3 local heavy rainfall events showed that hybrid systems and EnKF provided better initial conditions than the NMC-based 4D-Var, both for predicting the intensity and track forecast of TCs and for the location and amount of local heavy rainfall events.

Response of rhizosphere soil microbial to Deyeuxia angustifolia encroaching in two different vegetation communities in alpine tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lin; Xing, Ming; Lv, Jiangwei; Wang, Xiaolong; Chen, Xia

2017-02-01

Deyeuxia angustifolia (Komarov) Y. L Chang is an herb species originating from the birch forests in the Changbai Mountain. Recently, this species has been found encroaching into large areas in the western slopes of the alpine tundra in the Changbai Mountain, threatening the tundra ecosystem. In this study, we systematically assessed the response of the rhizosphere soil microbial to D. angustifolia encroaching in alpine tundra by conducting experiments for two vegetation types (shrubs and herbs) by real-time PCR and Illumina Miseq sequencing methods. The treatments consisted of D. angustifolia sites (DA), native sites (NS, NH) and encroaching sites (ES, EH). Our results show that (1) Rhizosphere soil properties of the alpine tundra were significantly impacted by D. angustifolia encroaching; microbial nutrient cycling and soil bacterial communities were shaped to be suitable for D. angustifolia growth; (2) The two vegetation community rhizosphere soils responded differently to D. angustifolia encroaching; (3) By encroaching into both vegetation communities, D. angustifolia could effectively replace the native species by establishing positive plant-soil feedback. The strong adaptation and assimilative capacity contributed to D. angustifolia encroaching in the alpine tundra. Our research indicates that D. angustifolia significantly impacts the rhizosphere soil microbial of the alpine tundra.

Response of rhizosphere soil microbial to Deyeuxia angustifolia encroaching in two different vegetation communities in alpine tundra.

PubMed

Li, Lin; Xing, Ming; Lv, Jiangwei; Wang, Xiaolong; Chen, Xia

2017-02-21

Deyeuxia angustifolia (Komarov) Y. L Chang is an herb species originating from the birch forests in the Changbai Mountain. Recently, this species has been found encroaching into large areas in the western slopes of the alpine tundra in the Changbai Mountain, threatening the tundra ecosystem. In this study, we systematically assessed the response of the rhizosphere soil microbial to D. angustifolia encroaching in alpine tundra by conducting experiments for two vegetation types (shrubs and herbs) by real-time PCR and Illumina Miseq sequencing methods. The treatments consisted of D. angustifolia sites (DA), native sites (NS, NH) and encroaching sites (ES, EH). Our results show that (1) Rhizosphere soil properties of the alpine tundra were significantly impacted by D. angustifolia encroaching; microbial nutrient cycling and soil bacterial communities were shaped to be suitable for D. angustifolia growth; (2) The two vegetation community rhizosphere soils responded differently to D. angustifolia encroaching; (3) By encroaching into both vegetation communities, D. angustifolia could effectively replace the native species by establishing positive plant-soil feedback. The strong adaptation and assimilative capacity contributed to D. angustifolia encroaching in the alpine tundra. Our research indicates that D. angustifolia significantly impacts the rhizosphere soil microbial of the alpine tundra.

Exploring New Pathways in Precipitation Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur; Zhang, Sara Q.

2004-01-01

Precipitation assimilation poses a special challenge in that the forward model for rain in a global forecast system is based on parameterized physics, which can have large systematic errors that must be rectified to use precipitation data effectively within a standard statistical analysis framework. We examine some key issues in precipitation assimilation and describe several exploratory studies in assimilating rainfall and latent heating information in NASA's global data assimilation systems using the forecast model as a weak constraint. We present results from two research activities. The first is the assimilation of surface rainfall data using a time-continuous variational assimilation based on a column model of the full moist physics. The second is the assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating retrievals from microwave sensors using a variational technique with physical parameters in the moist physics schemes as a control variable. We will show the impact of assimilating these data on analyses and forecasts. Among the lessons learned are (1) that the time-continuous application of moisture/temperature tendency corrections to mitigate model deficiencies offers an effective strategy for assimilating precipitation information, and (2) that the model prognostic variables must be allowed to directly respond to an improved rain and latent heating field within an analysis cycle to reap the full benefit of assimilating precipitation information. of microwave radiances versus retrieval information in raining areas, and initial efforts in developing ensemble techniques such as Kalman filter/smoother for precipitation assimilation. Looking to the future, we discuss new research directions including the assimilation

A variational ensemble scheme for noisy image data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yin; Robinson, Cordelia; Heitz, Dominique; Mémin, Etienne

2014-05-01

Data assimilation techniques aim at recovering a system state variables trajectory denoted as X, along time from partially observed noisy measurements of the system denoted as Y. These procedures, which couple dynamics and noisy measurements of the system, fulfill indeed a twofold objective. On one hand, they provide a denoising - or reconstruction - procedure of the data through a given model framework and on the other hand, they provide estimation procedures for unknown parameters of the dynamics. A standard variational data assimilation problem can be formulated as the minimization of the following objective function with respect to the initial discrepancy, η, from the background initial guess: δ« J(η(x)) = 1∥Xb (x) - X (t ,x)∥2 + 1 tf∥H(X (t,x ))- Y (t,x)∥2dt. 2 0 0 B 2 t0 R (1) where the observation operator H links the state variable and the measurements. The cost function can be interpreted as the log likelihood function associated to the a posteriori distribution of the state given the past history of measurements and the background. In this work, we aim at studying ensemble based optimal control strategies for data assimilation. Such formulation nicely combines the ingredients of ensemble Kalman filters and variational data assimilation (4DVar). It is also formulated as the minimization of the objective function (1), but similarly to ensemble filter, it introduces in its objective function an empirical ensemble-based background-error covariance defined as: B ≡ <(Xb - )(Xb - )T>. (2) Thus, it works in an off-line smoothing mode rather than on the fly like sequential filters. Such resulting ensemble variational data assimilation technique corresponds to a relatively new family of methods [1,2,3]. It presents two main advantages: first, it does not require anymore to construct the adjoint of the dynamics tangent linear operator, which is a considerable advantage with respect to the method's implementation, and second, it enables the handling of a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix that can be consistently adjusted to the background error. These nice advantages come however at the cost of a reduced rank modeling of the solution space. The B matrix is at most of rank N - 1 (N is the size of the ensemble) which is considerably lower than the dimension of state space. This rank deficiency may introduce spurious correlation errors, which particularly impact the quality of results associated with a high resolution computing grid. The common strategy to suppress these distant correlations for ensemble Kalman techniques is through localization procedures. In this paper we present key theoretical properties associated to different choices of methods involved in this setup and compare with an incremental 4DVar method experimentally the performances of several variations of an ensemble technique of interest. The comparisons have been led on the basis of a Shallow Water model and have been carried out both with synthetic data and real observations. We particularly addressed the potential pitfalls and advantages of the different methods. The results indicate an advantage in favor of the ensemble technique both in quality and computational cost when dealing with incomplete observations. We highlight as the premise of using ensemble variational assimilation, that the initial perturbation used to build the initial ensemble has to fit the physics of the observed phenomenon . We also apply the method to a stochastic shallow-water model which incorporate an uncertainty expression if the subgrid stress tensor related to the ensemble spread. References [1] A. C. Lorenc, The potential of the ensemble kalman filter for nwp - a comparison with 4d-var, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 129, pp. 3183-3203, 2003. [2] C. Liu, Q. Xiao, and B. Wang, An Ensemble-Based Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme. Part I: Technical Formulation and Preliminary Test, Mon. Wea. Rev., Vol. 136(9), pp. 3363-3373, 2008. [3] M. Buehner, Ensemble-derived stationary and flow-dependent background-error covariances: Evaluation in a quasi- operational NWP setting, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 131(607), pp. 1013-1043, April 2005.

Balanced Atmospheric Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hastermann, Gottfried; Reinhardt, Maria; Klein, Rupert; Reich, Sebastian

2017-04-01

The atmosphere's multi-scale structure poses several major challenges in numerical weather prediction. One of these arises in the context of data assimilation. The large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere are balanced in the sense that acoustic or rapid internal wave oscillations generally come with negligibly small amplitudes. If triggered artificially, however, through inappropriate initialization or by data assimilation, such oscillations can have a detrimental effect on forecast quality as they interact with the moist aerothermodynamics of the atmosphere. In the setting of sequential Bayesian data assimilation, we therefore investigate two different strategies to reduce these artificial oscillations induced by the analysis step. On the one hand, we develop a new modification for a local ensemble transform Kalman filter, which penalizes imbalances via a minimization problem. On the other hand, we modify the first steps of the subsequent forecast to push the ensemble members back to the slow evolution. We therefore propose the use of certain asymptotically consistent integrators that can blend between the balanced and the unbalanced evolution model seamlessly. In our work, we furthermore present numerical results and performance of the proposed methods for two nonlinear ordinary differential equation models, where we can identify the different scales clearly. The first one is a Lorenz 96 model coupled with a wave equation. In this case the balance relation is linear and the imbalances are caused only by the localization of the filter. The second one is the elastic double pendulum where the balance relation itself is already highly nonlinear. In both cases the methods perform very well and could significantly reduce the imbalances and therefore increase the forecast quality of the slow variables.

Assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading in the watercolor configuration.

PubMed

Kimura, Eiji; Kuroki, Mikako

2014-01-01

A colored line flanking a darker contour will appear to spread its color onto an area enclosed by the line (watercolor effect). The watercolor effect has been characterized as an assimilative effect, but non-assimilative color spreading has also been demonstrated in the same spatial configuration; e.g., when a black inner contour (IC) is paired with a blue outer contour (OC), yellow color spreading can be observed. To elucidate visual mechanisms underlying these different color spreading effects, this study investigated the effects of luminance ratio between the double contours on the induced color by systematically manipulating the IC and the OC luminance (Experiment 1) as well as the background luminance (Experiment 2). The results showed that the luminance conditions suitable for assimilative and non-assimilative color spreading were nearly opposite. When the Weber contrast of the IC to the background luminance (IC contrast) was smaller in size than that of the OC (OC contrast), the induced color became similar to the IC color (assimilative spreading). In contrast, when the OC contrast was smaller than or equal to the IC contrast, the induced color became yellow (non-assimilative spreading). Extending these findings, Experiment 3 showed that bilateral color spreading, i.e., assimilative spreading on one side and non-assimilative spreading on the other side, can also be observed in the watercolor configuration. These results suggest that the assimilative and the non-assimilative spreading were mediated by different visual mechanisms. The properties of the assimilative spreading are consistent with the model proposed to account for neon color spreading (Grossberg and Mingolla, 1985) and extended for the watercolor effect (Pinna and Grossberg, 2005). However, the present results suggest that additional mechanisms are needed to account for the non-assimilative color spreading.

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, J. W.; Guo, J.; Lyster, P. M.

1999-01-01

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Theoretical Advances in Sequential Data Assimilation for the Atmosphere and Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.

2007-05-01

We concentrate here on two aspects of advanced Kalman--filter-related methods: (i) the stability of the forecast- assimilation cycle, and (ii) parameter estimation for the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The nonlinear stability of a prediction-assimilation system guarantees the uniqueness of the sequentially estimated solutions in the presence of partial and inaccurate observations, distributed in space and time; this stability is shown to be a necessary condition for the convergence of the state estimates to the true evolution of the turbulent flow. The stability properties of the governing nonlinear equations and of several data assimilation systems are studied by computing the spectrum of the associated Lyapunov exponents. These ideas are applied to a simple and an intermediate model of atmospheric variability and we show that the degree of stabilization depends on the type and distribution of the observations, as well as on the data assimilation method. These results represent joint work with A. Carrassi, A. Trevisan and F. Uboldi. Much is known by now about the main physical mechanisms that give rise to and modulate the El-Nino/Southern- Oscillation (ENSO), but the values of several parameters that enter these mechanisms are an important unknown. We apply Extended Kalman Filtering (EKF) for both model state and parameter estimation in an intermediate, nonlinear, coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Model behavior is very sensitive to two key parameters: (a) "mu", the ocean-atmosphere coupling coefficient between the sea-surface temperature (SST) and wind stress anomalies; and (b) "delta-s", the surface-layer coefficient. Previous work has shown that "delta- s" determines the period of the model's self-sustained oscillation, while "mu' measures the degree of nonlinearity. Depending on the values of these parameters, the spatio-temporal pattern of model solutions is either that of a delayed oscillator or of a westward propagating mode. Assimilation of SST data from the NCEP- NCAR Reanalysis-2 shows that the parameters can vary on fairly short time scales and switch between values that approximate the two distinct modes of ENSO behavior. Rapid adjustments of these parameters occur, in particular, during strong ENSO events. Ways to apply EKF parameter estimation efficiently to state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs will be discussed. These results arise from joint work with D. Kondrashov and C.-j. Sun.

Lidar data assimilation for improved analyses of volcanic aerosol events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Anne Caroline; Elbern, Hendrik

2014-05-01

Observations of hazardous events with release of aerosols are hardly analyzable by today's data assimilation algorithms, without producing an attenuating bias. Skillful forecasts of unexpected aerosol events are essential for human health and to prevent an exposure of infirm persons and aircraft with possibly catastrophic outcome. Typical cases include mineral dust outbreaks, mostly from large desert regions, wild fires, and sea salt uplifts, while the focus aims for volcanic eruptions. In general, numerical chemistry and aerosol transport models cannot simulate such events without manual adjustments. The concept of data assimilation is able to correct the analysis, as long it is operationally implemented in the model system. Though, the tangent-linear approximation, which describes a substantial precondition for today's cutting edge data assimilation algorithms, is not valid during unexpected aerosol events. As part of the European COPERNICUS (earth observation) project MACC II and the national ESKP (Earth System Knowledge Platform) initiative, we developed a module that enables the assimilation of aerosol lidar observations, even during unforeseeable incidences of extreme emissions of particulate matter. Thereby, the influence of the background information has to be reduced adequately. Advanced lidar instruments comprise on the one hand the aspect of radiative transfer within the atmosphere and on the other hand they can deliver a detailed quantification of the detected aerosols. For the assimilation of maximal exploited lidar data, an appropriate lidar observation operator is constructed, compatible with the EURAD-IM (European Air Pollution and Dispersion - Inverse Model) system. The observation operator is able to map the modeled chemical and physical state on lidar attenuated backscatter, transmission, aerosol optical depth, as well as on the extinction and backscatter coefficients. Further, it has the ability to process the observed discrepancies with lidar data in a variational data assimilation algorithm. The implemented method is tested by the assimilation of CALIPSO attenuated backscatter data that were taken during the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April 2010. It turned out that the implemented module is fully capable to integrate unexpected aerosol events in an automatic way into reasonable analyses. The estimations of the aerosol mass concentrations showed promising properties for the application of observations that are taken by lidar systems with both, higher and lower sophistication than CALIOP.

A New Quality Control Method base on IRMCD for Wind Profiler Observation towards Future Assimilation Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Min; Zhang, Yu

2017-04-01

A wind profiler network with a total of 65 profiling radars was operated by the MOC/CMA in China until July 2015. In this study, a quality control procedure is constructed to incorporate the profiler data from the wind-profiling network into the local data assimilation and forecasting system (BJRUC). The procedure applies a blacklisting check that removes stations with gross errors and an outlier check that rejects data with large deviations from the background. Instead of the bi-weighting method, which has been commonly implemented in outlier elimination for one-dimensional scalar observations, an outlier elimination method is developed based on the iterated reweighted minimum covariance determinant (IRMCD) for multi-variate observations such as wind profiler data. A quality control experiment is separately performed for subsets containing profiler data tagged in parallel with/without rain flags at every 00UTC/12UTC from 20 June to 30 Sep 2015. From the results, we find that with the quality control, the frequency distributions of the differences between the observations and model background become more Gaussian-like and meet the requirements of a Gaussian distribution for data assimilation. Further intensive assessment for each quality control step reveals that the stations rejected by blacklisting contain poor data quality, and the IRMCD rejects outliers in a robust and physically reasonable manner.

Assimilation of SeaWiFS Ocean Chlorophyll Data into a Three-Dimensional Global Ocean Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.

2005-01-01

Assimilation of satellite ocean color data is a relatively new phenomenon in ocean sciences. However, with routine observations from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), launched in late 1997, and now with new data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradometer (MODIS) Aqua, there is increasing interest in ocean color data assimilation. Here SeaWiFS chlorophyll data were assimilated with an established thre-dimentional global ocean model. The assimilation improved estimates of hlorophyll and primary production relative to a free-run (no assimilation) model. This represents the first attempt at ocean color data assimilation using NASA satellites in a global model. The results suggest the potential of assimilation of satellite ocean chlorophyll data for improving models.

Sensitive detection of dopamine via leucodopaminechrome on polyacrylic acid-coated ceria nanorods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Weiqin; Zheng, Liang; Liu, Yan; Zhao, Xueqin; Weng, Jian; Zhang, Yang

2017-09-01

The major hurdle in detection of dopamine (DA) by electro-analysis is the presence of physiological interferents with a similar oxidation potential of DA. The conventional method is to enlarge the difference of their oxidation potentials. Here, we report an unconventional method to detect DA via leucodopaminechrome on CeO2 nanorods. Leucodopaminechrome is produced from the cyclization of dopamine-quinone, a product of two-electron oxidation of DA. Thus, its concentration is proportional to the DA concentration. Determining DA is demonstrated by measuring the reduction current of leucodopaminechrome on CeO2 nanorods. CeO2 nanorods demonstrate high electrocatalytic activity for reduction of leucodopaminechrome with a low potential at -0.27 V. The low detection potential of leucodopaminechrome can avoid the interference from ascorbic acid (AA) and uric acid (UA). Therefore, detecting DA via leucodopaminechrome is an effective method to avoid interference from AA and UA, and the suggested biosensor also displays good reproducibility and stability.

Development of a decision aid for the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia: A four stage method using a Delphi consensus study.

PubMed

Lamers, Romy E D; Cuypers, Maarten; Garvelink, Mirjam M; de Vries, Marieke; Bosch, J L H Ruud; Kil, Paul J M

2016-07-01

To develop a web-based decision aid (DA) for the treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms due to benign prostatic hyperplasia (LUTS/BPH). From February-September 2014 we performed a four-stage development method: 1: Two-round Delphi consensus method among urologists, 2: Identifying patients' needs and expectations, 3: Development of DA content and structure, 4: Usability testing with LUTS/BPH patients. 1 (N=15): Dutch urologists reached consensus on 61% of the statements concerning users' criteria, decision options, structure, and medical content. 2 (N=24): Consensus was reached in 69% on statements concerning the need for improvement of information provision, the need for DA development and that the DA should clarify patients' preferences. 3: DA development based on results from stage 1 and stage 2. 4 (N=10): Pros of the DA were clear information provision, systematic design and easy to read and re-read. A LUTS/BPH DA containing VCEs(**) was developed in cooperation with urologists and patients following a structured 4 stage method and was stated to be well accepted. This method can be adopted for the development of DAs to support other medical decision issues. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Avoiding drift related to linear analysis update with Lagrangian coordinate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois; Bertino, Laurent

2015-04-01

When applying data assimilation to Lagrangian coordinate models, it is profitable to correct its grid (position, volume). In isopycnal ocean coordinate model, such information is provided by the layer thickness that can be massless but must remains positive (truncated Gaussian distribution). A linear gaussian analysis does not ensure positivity for such variable. Existing methods have been proposed to handle this issue - e.g. post processing, anamorphosis or resampling - but none ensures conservation of the mean, which is imperative in climate application. Here, a framework is introduced to test a new method, which proceed as following. First, layers for which analysis yields negative values are iteratively grouped with neighboring layers, resulting in a probability density function with a larger mean and smaller standard deviation that prevent appearance of negative values. Second, analysis increments of the grouped layer are uniformly distributed, which prevent massless layers to become filled and vice-versa. The new method is proved fully conservative with e.g. OI or 3DVAR but a small drift remains with ensemble-based methods (e.g. EnKF, DEnKF, …) during the update of the ensemble anomaly. However, the resulting drift with the latter is small (an order of magnitude smaller than with post-processing) and the increase of the computational cost moderate. The new method is demonstrated with a realistic application in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) that provides climate prediction by assimilating sea surface temperature with the Ensemble Kalman Filter in a fully coupled Earth System model (NorESM) with an isopycnal ocean model (MICOM). Over 25-year analysis period, the new method does not impair the predictive skill of the system but corrects the artificial steric drift introduced by data assimilation, and provide estimate in good agreement with IPCC AR5.

4DVAR data Assimilation with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Impact on the Water Mass Distributions in the Yellow Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Joon-Ho; Kim, Taekyun; Pang, Ig-Chan; Moon, Jae-Hong

2018-04-01

In this study, we evaluate the performance of the recently developed incremental strong constraint 4-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation applied to the Yellow Sea (YS) using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Two assimilation experiments are compared: assimilating remote-sensed sea surface temperature (SST) and both the SST and in-situ profiles measured by shipboard CTD casts into a regional ocean modeling from January to December of 2011. By comparing the two assimilation experiments against a free-run without data assimilation, we investigate how the assimilation affects the hydrographic structures in the YS. Results indicate that the SST assimilation notably improves the model behavior at the surface when compared to the nonassimilative free-run. The SST assimilation also has an impact on the subsurface water structure in the eastern YS; however, the improvement is seasonally dependent, that is, the correction becomes more effective in winter than in summer. This is due to a strong stratification in summer that prevents the assimilation of SST from affecting the subsurface temperature. A significant improvement to the subsurface temperature is made when the in-situ profiles of temperature and salinity are assimilated, forming a tongue-shaped YS bottom cold water from the YS toward the southwestern seas of Jeju Island.

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Data into a Land Surface Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf H.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Rodell, Matt

2008-01-01

The NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) system of satellites provides observations of large-scale, monthly terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes. In. this presentation we describe a land data assimilation system that ingests GRACE observations and show that the assimilation improves estimates of water storage and fluxes, as evaluated against independent measurements. The ensemble-based land data assimilation system uses a Kalman smoother approach along with the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). We assimilated GRACE-derived TWS anomalies for each of the four major sub-basins of the Mississippi into the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). Compared with the open-loop (no assimilation) CLSM simulation, assimilation estimates of groundwater variability exhibited enhanced skill with respect to measured groundwater. Assimilation also significantly increased the correlation between simulated TWS and gauged river flow for all four sub-basins and for the Mississippi River basin itself. In addition, model performance was evaluated for watersheds smaller than the scale of GRACE observations, in the majority of cases, GRACE assimilation led to increased correlation between TWS estimates and gauged river flow, indicating that data assimilation has considerable potential to downscale GRACE data for hydrological applications. We will also describe how the output from the GRACE land data assimilation system is now being prepared for use in the North American Drought Monitor.

Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS Temperature Profiles using the NCEP GFS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Reale, Oreste; Iredell, Lena; Rosenberg, Robert

2013-01-01

We have previously conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using AIRS Version-5 quality controlled temperature profiles as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The data assimilation and forecast system we used was the Goddard Earth Observing System Model , Version-5 (GEOS-5) Data Assimilation System (DAS), which represents a combination of the NASA GEOS-5 forecast model with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Grid Point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) global analysis scheme. All analyses and forecasts were run at a 0.5deg x 0.625deg spatial resolution. Data assimilation experiments were conducted in four different seasons, each in a different year. Three different sets of data assimilation experiments were run during each time period: Control; AIRS T(p); and AIRS Radiance. In the "Control" analysis, all the data used operationally by NCEP was assimilated, but no AIRS data was assimilated. Radiances from the Aqua AMSU-A instrument were also assimilated operationally by NCEP and are included in the "Control". The AIRS Radiance assimilation adds AIRS observed radiance observations for a select set of channels to the data set being assimilated, as done operationally by NCEP. In the AIRS T(p) assimilation, all information used in the Control was assimilated as well as Quality Controlled AIRS Version-5 temperature profiles, i.e., AIRS T(p) information was substituted for AIRS radiance information. The AIRS Version-5 temperature profiles were presented to the GSI analysis as rawinsonde profiles, assimilated down to a case-by-case appropriate pressure level p(sub best) determined using the Quality Control procedure. Version-5 also determines case-by-case, level-by-level error estimates of the temperature profiles, which were used as the uncertainty of each temperature measurement. These experiments using GEOS-5 have shown that forecasts resulting from analyses using the AIRS T(p) assimilation system were superior to those from the Radiance assimilation system, both with regard to global 7 day forecast skill and also the ability to predict storm tracks and intensity.

Experimental study and neural network modeling of sugarcane bagasse pretreatment with H2SO4 and O3 for cellulosic material conversion to sugar.

PubMed

Gitifar, Vahid; Eslamloueyan, Reza; Sarshar, Mohammad

2013-11-01

In this study, pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse and subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis is investigated using two categories of pretreatment methods: dilute acid (DA) pretreatment and combined DA-ozonolysis (DAO) method. Both methods are accomplished at different solid ratios, sulfuric acid concentrations, autoclave residence times, bagasse moisture content, and ozonolysis time. The results show that the DAO pretreatment can significantly increase the production of glucose compared to DA method. Applying k-fold cross validation method, two optimal artificial neural networks (ANNs) are trained for estimations of glucose concentrations for DA and DAO pretreatment methods. Comparing the modeling results with experimental data indicates that the proposed ANNs have good estimation abilities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adjoint assimilation of altimetric, surface drifter, and hydrographic data in a quasi-geostrophic model of the Azores Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrow, Rosemary; de Mey, Pierre

1995-12-01

The flow characteristics in the region of the Azores Current are investigated by assimilating TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS 1 altimeter data into the multilevel Harvard quasigeostrophic (QG) model with open boundaries (Miller et al., 1983) using an adjoint variational scheme (Moore, 1991). The study site lies in the path of the Azores Current, where a branch retroflects to the south in the vicinity of the Madeira Rise. The region was the site of an intensive field program in 1993, SEMAPHORE. We had two main aims in this adjoint assimilation project. The first was to see whether the adjoint method could be applied locally to optimize an initial guess field, derived from the continous assimilation of altimetry data using optimal interpolation (OI). The second aim was to assimilate a variety of different data sets and evaluate their importance in constraining our QG model. The adjoint assimilation of surface data was effective in optimizing the initial conditions from OI. After 20 iterations the cost function was generally reduced by 50-80%, depending on the chosen data constraints. The primary adjustment process was via the barotropic mode. Altimetry proved to be a good constraint on the variable flow field, in particular, for constraining the barotropic field. The excellent data quality of the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter data provided smooth and reliable forcing; but for our mesoscale study in a region of long decorrelation times O(30 days), the spatial coverage from the combined T/P and ERS 1 data sets was more important for constraining the solution and providing stable flow at all levels. Surface drifters provided an excellent constraint on both the barotropic and baroclinic model fields. More importantly, the drifters provided a reliable measure of the mean field. Hydrographic data were also applied as a constraint; in general, hydrography provided a weak but effective constraint on the vertical Rossby modes in the model. Finally, forecasts run over a 2-month period indicate that the initial conditions optimized by the 20-day adjoint assimilation provide more stable, longer-term forecasts.