Deflection by kinetic impact: Sensitivity to asteroid properties

DOE PAGES

Bruck Syal, Megan; Michael Owen, J.; Miller, Paul L.

2016-05-01

Impacting an asteroid with a spacecraft traveling at high speed delivers an impulsive change in velocity to the body. In certain circumstances, this strategy could be used to deflect a hazardous asteroid, moving its orbital path off of an Earth-impacting course. However, the efficacy of momentum delivery to asteroids by hypervelocity impact is sensitive to both the impact conditions (particularly velocity) and specific characteristics of the target asteroid. We numerically model asteroid response to kinetic impactors under a wide range of initial conditions, using an Adaptive Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics code. Impact velocities spanning 1–30 km/s were investigated, yielding, for amore » particular set of assumptions about the modeled target material, a power-law dependence consistent with a velocity-scaling exponent of μ = 0.44. Target characteristics including equation of state, strength model, porosity, rotational state, and shape were varied, and corresponding changes in asteroid response were documented. Moreover, the kinetic-impact momentum-multiplication factor, β, decreases with increasing asteroid cohesion and increasing porosity. Although increased porosity lowers β, larger porosities result in greater deflection velocities, as a consequence of reduced target masses for asteroids of fixed size. Porosity also lowers disruption risk for kinetic impacts near the threshold of disruption. Including fast (P = 2.5 h) and very fast (P = 100 s) rotation did not significantly alter β but did affect the risk of disruption by the impact event. Asteroid shape is found to influence the efficiency of momentum delivery, as local slope conditions can change the orientation of the crater ejecta momentum vector. Our results emphasize the need for asteroid characterization studies to bracket the range of target conditions expected at near-Earth asteroids while also highlighting some of the principal uncertainties associated with the kinetic-impact deflection strategy.« less

On the post mitigation impact risk assessment of possible targets for an asteroid deflection demonstration mission in the NEOShield project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggl, Siegfried

2014-05-01

Mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts. Yet, only the realization of a mitigation demonstration mission can confirm such a claim. The NEOShield project, an international collaboration under European leadership, aims to draw a comprehensive picture of the scientific as well as technical requirements to such an endeavor. One of the top priorities of such a demonstration mission is, of course, that a previously harmless target asteroid shall not be turned into a potentially hazardous object. Given the inherently large uncertainties in an asteroid's physical parameters, as well as the additional uncertainties introduced during the deflection attempt, an in depth analysis of the change in asteroid impact probabilities after a deflection event becomes necessary. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential deflection test missions and discuss the influence of orbital, physical and mitigation induced uncertainties.

Dealing with the Asteroid Impact Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David

2001-01-01

The small fraction of the asteroids with Earth-crossing or Earth-approaching orbits is of special interest to us because many will eventually impact our planet. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics, although we have little information on the possible variability of this flux over time. The effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts (such as the KT impactor 65 million years ago), nuclear explosive testing, and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile roughly 15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near one million megatons energy. The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. These include the relative risk of different impact scenarios and the associated costs and probability of success of countermeasures. It is generally agreed that the first step is to survey and catalogue the thousand-or-so Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), and we review the status of the Spaceguard NEA Survey. We compare the efficiency of various ground and space-based approaches and consider the challenges of international coordination and the problems and opportunities associated with communicating the results with the press and the public. It is also important to reflect on how the impact hazard might be dealt with by both national governments and international decision-making bodies, and to anticipate ways of mitigating the danger if a NEA were located on an apparent Earth-impact trajectory. As the most extreme known example of a natural hazard with low probability but severe global consequences. the NEA impact hazard calls for the most careful consideration and planning.

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test in the AIDA Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Andrew; Rivkin, Andrew; Michel, Patrick

2016-04-01

The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will be the first space experiment to demonstrate asteroid impact hazard mitigation by using a kinetic impactor. AIDA is a joint ESA-NASA cooperative project, that includes the ESA Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) rendezvous mission and the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission. The AIDA target is the near-Earth binary asteroid 65803 Didymos, which will make an unusually close approach to Earth in October, 2022. The ~300-kg DART spacecraft is designed to impact the Didymos secondary at 7 km/s and demonstrate the ability to modify its trajectory through momentum transfer. DART and AIM are currently Phase A studies supported by NASA and ESA respectively. The primary goals of AIDA are (1) perform a full-scale demonstration of the spacecraft kinetic impact technique for deflection of an asteroid, by targeting an object larger than ~100 m and large enough to qualify as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid; (2) measure the resulting asteroid deflection, by targeting the secondary member of a binary NEO and measuring the period change of the binary orbit; (3) understand the hyper-velocity collision effects on an asteroid, including the long-term dynamics of impact ejecta; and validate models for momentum transfer in asteroid impacts, based on measured physical properties of the asteroid surface and sub-surface. The primary DART objectives are to demonstrate a hyper-velocity impact on the Didymos moon and to determine the resulting deflection from ground-based observatories. The DART impact on the Didymos secondary will cause a measurable change in the orbital period of the binary. Supporting Earth-based optical and radar observations and numerical simulation studies are an integral part of the DART mission. The baseline DART mission launches in December, 2020 to impact the Didymos secondary in September, 2022. There are multiple launch opportunities for DART leading to impact around the 2022 Didymos close approach to Earth. The AIM spacecraft will be launched in Dec. 2020 and arrive at Didymos in spring, 2022, several months before the DART impact. AIM will characterize the Didymos binary system by means of remote sensing and in-situ instruments both before and after the DART impact. The asteroid deflection will be measured to higher accuracy, and additional results of the DART impact, like the impact crater, will be studied in great detail by the AIM mission. The combined DART and AIM missions will provide the first measurements of momentum transfer efficiency β from hyper-velocity kinetic impact at full scale on an asteroid, where the impact conditions of the projectile are known, and physical properties and internal structures of the target asteroid are also characterized. The DART impact on the Didymos secondary is predicted to cause a ~4.4 minute change in the binary orbit period, assuming β=1, and is expected to be observable within a few days. The predicted β would be in the range 1.1 to 1.3 for a porous target material based on a variety of numerical and analytical methods, but may be much larger if the target is non-porous. The DART kinetic impact is predicted to make a crater of ~6 to ~17 meters diameter, depending on target physical properties, but will also release a large volume of particulate ejecta that may be directly observable from Earth or even resolvable as a coma or an ejecta tail by ground-based telescopes.

Synergistic approach of asteroid exploitation and planetary protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, J. P.; McInnes, C. R.

2012-02-01

The asteroid and cometary impact hazard has long been recognised as an important issue requiring risk assessment and contingency planning. At the same time asteroids have also been acknowledged as possible sources of raw materials for future large-scale space engineering ventures. This paper explores possible synergies between these two apparently opposed views; planetary protection and space resource exploitation. In particular, the paper assumes a 5 tonne low-thrust spacecraft as a baseline for asteroid deflection and capture (or resource transport) missions. The system is assumed to land on the asteroid and provide a continuous thrust able to modify the orbit of the asteroid according to the mission objective. The paper analyses the capability of such a near-term system to provide both planetary protection and asteroid resources to Earth. Results show that a 5 tonne spacecraft could provide a high level of protection for modest impact hazards: airburst and local damage events (caused by 15-170 m diameter objects). At the same time, the same spacecraft could also be used to transport to bound Earth orbits significant quantities of material through judicious use of orbital dynamics and passively safe aero-capture manoeuvres or low energy ballistic capture. As will be shown, a 5 tonne low-thrust spacecraft could potentially transport between 12 and 350 times its own mass of asteroid resources by means of ballistic capture or aero-capture trajectories that pose very low dynamical pressures on the object.

Post Deflection Impact Risk Analysis of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggl, S.; Hestroffer, D.

2017-09-01

Collisions between potentially hazardous near-Earth objects and our planet are among the few natural disasters that can be avoided by human intervention. The complexity of such an endeavor necessitates an asteroid orbit deflection test mission, however, ensuring all relevant knowledge is present when an asteroid on a collision course with the Earth is indeed discovered. The double asteroid redirection test (DART) mission concept currently investigated by NASA would serve such a purpose. The aim of our research is to make certain that DART does not turn a previously harmless asteroid into a potentially dangerous one.

Perspectives on the Near-Earth Object Impact Hazard After Chelyabinsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. R.

2013-12-01

Until this year, the NEO impact hazard had been regarded as a theoretical example of a very low probability high consequence natural disaster. There had been no confirmed examples of fatalities directly due to asteroid or meteoroid strikes. (There still aren't.) The several megaton Tunguska event in 1908 was in a remote, unpopulated place. So human beings have been witnessing only the tiniest analogs of asteroid strikes, the night-sky meteors and occasional bolides, which - on rare occasions - yield meteoritic fragments that puncture holes in roofs. Though the NEO impact hazard has occasionally been treated in the natural hazards literature, interest primarily remained in the planetary science and aerospace communities. The Chelyabinsk asteroid impact on 15 February 2013 was a real disaster, occurring near a city with a population exceeding a million. Well over a thousand people were injured, thousands of buildings suffered at least superficial damage (mainly to windows), schools and sports facilities were closed, and emergency responders swarmed across the city and surrounding rural areas. While the consequences were very small compared with larger natural disasters, which kill tens of thousands of people annually worldwide, this specific case - for the first time - has permitted a calibration of the consequences of the rare impacts asteroid astronomers have been predicting. There now are reasons to expect that impacts by bodies tens of meters in diameter are several times more frequent than had been thought and each impact is more damaging than previously estimated. The Chelyabinsk event, produced by a 20 meter diameter asteroid, specifically suggests that asteroids just 15 meters diameter, or even smaller, could be very dangerous and damaging; indeed, a more common steeper impact angle would have produced more consequential damage on the ground. This contrasts with estimates a decade earlier [NASA NEO Science Definition Team report, 2003] that asteroids smaller than 40 to 50 meters diameter would explode harmlessly in the upper atmosphere. Given the observed size-frequency relation for NEOs, this means that dangerous impacts could be many tens of times more frequent than had been thought. New observing campaigns (e.g. ATLAS) oriented towards finding roughly half of the frequent smaller impactors meters to tens of meters in size during their final days to weeks before impact will soon result in warnings every few years of a potentially dangerous impact, perhaps requiring evacuation or instructions to shelter-in-place, even though most will turn out to be essentially harmless events. Warnings may become even more frequent as prudent emergency managers take into account the large uncertainties in sizes and destructive potential of these 'final plungers.' So emergency management officials around the world should at least be aware of the potential for a NEO impact to produce a real, if generally minor and local, natural disaster. Fortunately, success of the Spaceguard search for civilization-threatening large NEOs (> 1 km diameter) over the last 15 years has nearly retired the risk of global calamity by impact. So attention turns to the much smaller impacts that are far less dangerous, but soon will be frequently predicted and so cannot be ignored.

Laser Simulations of the Destructive Impact of Nuclear Explosions on Hazardous Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aristova, E. Yu.; Aushev, A. A.; Baranov, V. K.; Belov, I. A.; Bel'kov, S. A.; Voronin, A. Yu.; Voronich, I. N.; Garanin, R. V.; Garanin, S. G.; Gainullin, K. G.; Golubinskii, A. G.; Gorodnichev, A. V.; Denisova, V. A.; Derkach, V. N.; Drozhzhin, V. S.; Ericheva, I. A.; Zhidkov, N. V.; Il'kaev, R. I.; Krayukhin, A. A.; Leonov, A. G.; Litvin, D. N.; Makarov, K. N.; Martynenko, A. S.; Malinov, V. I.; Mis'ko, V. V.; Rogachev, V. G.; Rukavishnikov, A. N.; Salatov, E. A.; Skorochkin, Yu. V.; Smorchkov, G. Yu.; Stadnik, A. L.; Starodubtsev, V. A.; Starodubtsev, P. V.; Sungatullin, R. R.; Suslov, N. A.; Sysoeva, T. I.; Khatunkin, V. Yu.; Tsoi, E. S.; Shubin, O. N.; Yufa, V. N.

2018-01-01

We present the results of preliminary experiments at laser facilities in which the processes of the undeniable destruction of stony asteroids (chondrites) in space by nuclear explosions on the asteroid surface are simulated based on the principle of physical similarity. We present the results of comparative gasdynamic computations of a model nuclear explosion on the surface of a large asteroid and computations of the impact of a laser pulse on a miniature asteroid simulator confirming the similarity of the key processes in the fullscale and model cases. The technology of fabricating miniature mockups with mechanical properties close to those of stony asteroids is described. For mini-mockups 4-10 mm in size differing by the shape and impact conditions, we have made an experimental estimate of the energy threshold for the undeniable destruction of a mockup and investigated the parameters of its fragmentation at a laser energy up to 500 J. The results obtained confirm the possibility of an experimental determination of the criteria for the destruction of asteroids of various types by a nuclear explosion in laser experiments. We show that the undeniable destruction of a large asteroid is possible at attainable nuclear explosion energies on its surface.

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivkin, A.; Cheng, A. F.; Stickle, A. M.; Richardson, D. C.; Barnouin, O. S.; Thomas, C.; Fahnestock, E.

2017-12-01

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) will be the first space experiment to demonstrate asteroid impact hazard mitigation by using a kinetic impactor. DART is currently in Preliminary Design Phase ("Phase B"), and is part of the Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA), a joint ESA-NASA cooperative project. The AIDA target is the near-Earth binary asteroid 65803 Didymos, an S-class system that will make a close approach to Earth in fall 2022. The DART spacecraft is designed to impact the Didymos secondary at 6 km/s and demonstrate the ability to modify its trajectory through momentum transfer. The primary goals of AIDA are (1) perform a full-scale demonstration of the spacecraft kinetic impact technique for deflection of an asteroid; (2) measure the resulting asteroid deflection, by targeting the secondary member of a binary NEO and measuring the resulting changes of the binary orbit; and (3) study hyper-velocity collision effects on an asteroid, validating models for momentum transfer in asteroid impacts. The DART impact on the Didymos secondary will change the orbital period of the binary by several minutes, which can be measured by Earth-based optical and radar observations. The baseline DART mission launches in late 2020 to impact the Didymos secondary in 2022 near the time of its close pass of Earth, which enables an array of ground- and space-based observatories to participate in gathering data. The AIDA project will provide the first measurements of momentum transfer efficiency from hyper-velocity kinetic impact at full scale on an asteroid, where the impact conditions of the projectile are known, and physical properties and internal structures of the target asteroid are characterized or constrained. The DART kinetic impact is predicted to make a crater of 6 to 17 meters diameter, depending on target physical properties, but will also release a large volume of particulate ejecta that may be directly observable from Earth or even resolvable as a coma or an ejecta tail by ground-based telescopes.

Planetary Defense: Are we currently looking for our keys under the lamp post?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuth, J. A., III; Barbee, B.; Leung, R. Y.

2016-12-01

Planetary Defense is a serious and important endeavor and the approach taken to date is a sensible beginning. Finding and cataloging all potentially hazardous asteroids and supporting research into relevant topics required to divert such a threat to our home planet is a necessary, but far from sufficient set of activities required to ensure the survival of our species. Concentrating our efforts on the asteroid threat is relatively easy. Most asteroids move in near-circular orbits, are relatively close to the ecliptic plane and are likely to be detected as hazards many decades in advance of a potential impact. The single most likely problem that will be encountered in deflecting such a threat will be developing the political will to fund the project while there is still ample time for multiple deflection techniques to be applied successfully. While asteroid threats can be mitigated, comets are the invisible danger lurking in the vast, dark parking lot that is the outer solar system. Very few comets falling into the inner solar system will be detected more than two years before their arrival: refinement of a new comet's trajectory requires months of observation before its hazard potential can be realistically assessed and knowledge of the composition, mass and shape of the body cannot be refined sufficiently to design a deflection campaign without much more observational effort. To make matters worse, because of the highly elliptical orbits of most new comets, some of which can be far out of the ecliptic plane while a few can even be in retrograde orbits, the impact velocity of a typical comet will be significantly higher than that of an asteroid. If this increase is only a factor of two, then a typical comet carries four times the impact energy of an asteroid of similar size, though much higher multipliers are possible. The distribution of meteor stream velocities can be examined to place bounds on this threat. Finally, the time required to assemble and launch an asteroid deflection mission starting from scratch and with a high probability of success could exceed three years from mission approval. Based on the recent passage of Comet Siding Spring one must therefore conclude that a successful comet deflection mission must begin well before a hazardous comet is even detected, much less characterized as a significant threat.

Rapid design and optimization of low-thrust rendezvous/interception trajectory for asteroid deflection missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuang; Zhu, Yongsheng; Wang, Yukai

2014-02-01

Asteroid deflection techniques are essential in order to protect the Earth from catastrophic impacts by hazardous asteroids. Rapid design and optimization of low-thrust rendezvous/interception trajectories is considered as one of the key technologies to successfully deflect potentially hazardous asteroids. In this paper, we address a general framework for the rapid design and optimization of low-thrust rendezvous/interception trajectories for future asteroid deflection missions. The design and optimization process includes three closely associated steps. Firstly, shape-based approaches and genetic algorithm (GA) are adopted to perform preliminary design, which provides a reasonable initial guess for subsequent accurate optimization. Secondly, Radau pseudospectral method is utilized to transcribe the low-thrust trajectory optimization problem into a discrete nonlinear programming (NLP) problem. Finally, sequential quadratic programming (SQP) is used to efficiently solve the nonlinear programming problem and obtain the optimal low-thrust rendezvous/interception trajectories. The rapid design and optimization algorithms developed in this paper are validated by three simulation cases with different performance indexes and boundary constraints.

Meteoritic and other constraints on the internal structure and impact history of small asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Edward R. D.; Wilson, Lionel

2005-03-01

Studies of the internal structure of asteroids, which are crucial for understanding their impact history and for hazard mitigation, appear to be in conflict for the S-type asteroids, Eros, Gaspra, and Ida. Spacecraft images and geophysical data show that they are fractured, coherent bodies, whereas models of catastrophic asteroidal impacts, family and satellite formation, and studies of asteroid spin rates, and other diverse properties of asteroids and planetary craters suggest that such asteroids are gravitationally bound aggregates of rubble. These conflicting views may be reconciled if 10-50 km S-type asteroids formed as rubble piles, but were later consolidated into coherent bodies. Many meteorites are breccias that testify to a long history of impact fragmentation and consolidation by alteration, metamorphism, igneous and impact processes. Ordinary chondrites, which are the best analogs for S asteroids, are commonly breccias. Some may have formed in cratering events, but many appear to have formed during disruption and reaccretion of their parent asteroids. Some breccias were lithified during metamorphism, and a few were lithified by injected impact melt, but most are regolith and fragmental breccias that were lithified by mild or moderate shock, like their lunar analogs. Shock experiments show that porous chondritic powders can be consolidated during mild shock by small amounts of silicate melt that glues grains together, and by friction and pressure welding of silicate and metallic Fe,Ni grains. We suggest that the same processes that converted impact debris into meteorite breccias also consolidated asteroidal rubble. Internal voids would be partly filled with regolith by impact-induced seismic shaking. Consolidation of this material beneath large craters would lithify asteroidal rubble to form a more coherent body. Fractures on Ida that were created by antipodal impacts and are concentrated in and near large craters, and small positive gravity anomalies associated with the Psyche and Himeros craters on Eros, are consistent with this concept. Spin data suggest that smaller asteroids 0.6-6 km in size are unconsolidated rubble piles. C-type asteroids, which are more porous than S-types, and their analogs, the volatile-rich carbonaceous chondrites, were probably not lithified by shock.

The Explored Asteroids: Science and Exploration in the Space Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sears, D. W. G.

2015-11-01

Interest in asteroids is currently high in view of their scientific importance, the impact hazard, and the in situ resource opportunities they offer. They are also a case study of the intimate relationship between science and exploration. A detailed review of the twelve asteroids that have been visited by eight robotic spacecraft is presented here. While the twelve explored asteroids have many features in common, like their heavily cratered and regolith covered surfaces, they are a remarkably diverse group. Some have low-eccentricity orbits in the main belt, while some are potentially hazardous objects. They range from dwarf planets to primary planetesimals to fragments of larger precursor objects to tiny shards. One has a moon. Their surface compositions range from basaltic to various chondrite-like compositions. Here their properties are reviewed and what was confirmed and what was newly learned is discussed, and additionally the explored asteroids are compared with comets and meteorites. Several topics are developed. These topics are the internal structure of asteroids, water distribution in the inner solar system and its role in shaping surfaces, and the meteoritic links.

Catastrophic Disruption Threshold and Maximum Deflection from Kinetic Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, A. F.

2017-12-01

The use of a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid on a collision course with Earth was described in the NASA Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives (2007) as the most mature approach for asteroid deflection and mitigation. The NASA DART mission will demonstrate asteroid deflection by kinetic impact at the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 65803 Didymos in October, 2022. The kinetic impactor approach is considered to be applicable with warning times of 10 years or more and with hazardous asteroid diameters of 400 m or less. In principle, a larger kinetic impactor bringing greater kinetic energy could cause a larger deflection, but input of excessive kinetic energy will cause catastrophic disruption of the target, leaving possibly large fragments still on collision course with Earth. Thus the catastrophic disruption threshold limits the maximum deflection from a kinetic impactor. An often-cited rule of thumb states that the maximum deflection is 0.1 times the escape velocity before the target will be disrupted. It turns out this rule of thumb does not work well. A comparison to numerical simulation results shows that a similar rule applies in the gravity limit, for large targets more than 300 m, where the maximum deflection is roughly the escape velocity at momentum enhancement factor β=2. In the gravity limit, the rule of thumb corresponds to pure momentum coupling (μ=1/3), but simulations find a slightly different scaling μ=0.43. In the smaller target size range that kinetic impactors would apply to, the catastrophic disruption limit is strength-controlled. A DART-like impactor won't disrupt any target asteroid down to significantly smaller size than the 50 m below which a hazardous object would not penetrate the atmosphere in any case unless it is unusually strong.

Impacts and evolution: future prospects.

PubMed

Morrison, David

2003-01-01

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.

Impacts and evolution: future prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David

2003-01-01

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.

Tsunami Generation from Asteroid Airburst and Ocean Impact and Van Dorn Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Darrel

2016-01-01

Airburst - In the simulations explored energy from the airburst couples very weakly with the water making tsunami dangerous over a shorter distance than the blast for asteroid sizes up to the maximum expected size that will still airburst (approx.250MT). Future areas of investigation: - Low entry angle airbursts create more cylindrical blasts and might couple more efficiently - Bursts very close to the ground will increase coupling - Inclusion of thermosphere (>80km altitude) may show some plume collapse effects over a large area although with much less pressure center dot Ocean Impact - Asteroid creates large cavity in ocean. Cavity backfills creating central jet. Oscillation between the cavity and jet sends out tsunami wave packet. - For deep ocean impact waves are deep water waves (Phase speed = 2x Group speed) - If the tsunami propagation and inundation calculations are correct for the small (<250MT) asteroids in these simulations where they impact deep ocean basins, the resulting tsunami is not a significant hazard unless particularly close to vulnerable communities. Future work: - Shallow ocean impact. - Effect of continental shelf and beach profiles - Tsunami vs. blast damage radii for impacts close to populated areas - Larger asteroids below presumed threshold of global effects (Ø200 - 800m).

Waves Generated by Asteroid Impacts and Their Hazard Consequences on The Shorelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzedine, S. M.; Miller, P. L.; Dearborn, D. S.

2014-12-01

We have performed numerical simulations of a hypothetical asteroid impact onto the ocean in support of an emergency preparedness, planning, and management exercise. We addressed the scenario from asteroid entry; to ocean impact (splash rim); to wave generation, propagation, and interaction with the shoreline. For the analysis we used GEODYN, a hydrocode, to simulate the impact and generate the source wave for the large-scale shallow water wave program, SWWP. Using state-of-the-art, high-performance computing codes we simulated three impact areas — two are located on the West Coast near Los Angeles's shoreline and the San Francisco Bay, respectively, and the third is located in the Gulf of Mexico, with a possible impact location between Texas and Florida. On account of uncertainty in the exact impact location within the asteroid risk corridor, we examined multiple possibilities for impact points within each area. Uncertainty in the asteroid impact location was then convolved and represented as uncertainty in the shoreline flooding zones. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, and partially funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at LLNL under tracking code 12-ERD-005.

A global response roadmap to the asteroid impact threat: The NEOShield perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perna, D.; Barucci, M. A.; Drube, L.; Falke, A.; Fulchignoni, M.; Harris, A. W.; Harris, A. W.; Kanuchova, Z.

2015-12-01

Besides being of great scientific interest, near-Earth objects represent a well-founded threat to life on our planet. Nonetheless, up to now there has been no concerted international plan on how to deal with the impact threat, and how to prepare and implement mitigation measures. The NEOShield project is funded by the European Commission to address such issues, to investigate the feasibility of techniques to prevent a potentially catastrophic impact on Earth by an asteroid or a comet, and to develop detailed designs of appropriate space missions to test deflection techniques. In this work we present and discuss the scientific and strategic aspects of the asteroid impact threat, highlighting the necessary steps so as to be ready to react to future hazardous objects.

The hazard of near-Earth asteroid impacts on earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Clark R.

2004-05-01

Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) have struck the Earth throughout its existence. During epochs when life was gaining a foothold ˜4 Ga, the impact rate was thousands of times what it is today. Even during the Phanerozoic, the numbers of NEAs guarantee that there were other impacts, possibly larger than the Chicxulub event, which was responsible for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinctions. Astronomers have found over 2500 NEAs of all sizes, including well over half of the estimated 1100 NEAs >1 km diameter. NEAs are mostly collisional fragments from the inner half of the asteroid belt and range in composition from porous, carbonaceous-chondrite-like to metallic. Nearly one-fifth of them have satellites or are double bodies. When the international telescopic Spaceguard Survey, which has a goal of discovering 90% of NEAs >1 km diameter, is completed, perhaps as early as 2008, nearly half of the remaining impact hazard will be from land or ocean impacts by bodies 70-600 m diameter. (Comets are expected to contribute only about 1% of the total risk.) The consequences of impacts for civilization are potentially enormous, but impacts are so rare that worldwide mortality from impacts will have dropped to only about 150 per year (averaged over very long durations) after the Spaceguard goal has, presumably, ruled out near-term impacts by 90% of the most dangerous ones; that is, in the mid-range between very serious causes of death (disease, auto accidents) and minor but frightening ones (like shark attacks). Differences in perception concerning this rather newly recognized hazard dominate evaluation of its significance. The most likely type of impact events we face are hyped or misinterpreted predicted impacts or near-misses involving small NEAs.

The impact rate on Earth.

PubMed

Bland, Philip A

2005-12-15

Recent data, and modelling of the interaction between asteroids and the atmosphere, has defined a complete size-frequency distribution for terrestrial impactors, from meteorite-sized objects up to kilometre-sized asteroids, for both the upper atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Although there remain significant uncertainties in the incidence of specific size-fractions of impactors, these estimates allow us to constrain the threat posed by impacts to human populations. It is clear that impacts remain a significant natural hazard, but uniquely, they are a threat that we can accurately predict, and take steps to avoid.

The Physical, Geological, and Dynamical Nature of Asteroid (101955) Bennu - Target of OSIRIS-REx

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauretta, Dante

2014-11-01

OSIRIS-REx will survey asteroid (101955) Bennu to understand its properties, assess its resource potential, refine the impact hazard, and return a sample to Earth. This mission launches in 2016. Bennu is different from all other near-Earth asteroids previously visited by spacecraft. (433) Eros, target of the NEAR-Shoemaker mission, and (25143) Itokawa, target of Hayabusa, are both high-albedo, S-type asteroids with irregular shapes. In contrast, Bennu has a low albedo, is a B-type asteroid, and has a distinct spheroidal shape. While Eros and Itokawa are similar to ordinary chondrites, Bennu is likely related to carbonaceous chondrites, meteorites that record the history of volatiles and organic compounds in the early Solar System.We performed an extensive campaign to determine the properties of Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. Combining these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models yields a hypothetical timeline for Bennu’s formation and evolution. Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of Solar System history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the Solar System. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the main belt ~0.7 - 2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large, carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near-Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky-induced drift and interaction with giant-planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary encounters modified Bennu’s spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. Bennu is a Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an ~1-in-2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner Solar System after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS-REx will return samples from this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) for the AIDA Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stickle, Angela; Cheng, Andy F.; Michel, Patrick; Barnouin, Olivier S.; Campo Bagatin, Adriano; Miller, Paul L.; Pravec, Petr; Richardson, Derek C.; Schwartz, Stephen R.; Tsiganis, Kleomenis; Ulamec, Stephan; AIDA Impact Modeling and Simulation Working Group

2016-10-01

The Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will be the first space experiment to demonstrate asteroid impact hazard mitigation using a kinetic impactor. AIDA is a joint ESA-NASA cooperative project, consisting of the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which provides the kinetic impactor, and the ESA Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) rendezvous spacecraft. DART is a Phase A study supported by NASA, and AIM is a Phase B1 study supported by ESA. The AIDA target is the near-Earth binary asteroid 65803 Didymos, which will make a close approach to Earth in October, 2022. The DART spacecraft is designed to impact the Didymos secondary at ~6 km/s and deflect its trajectory, changing the orbital period of the binary. This change can be measured by Earth-based optical and radar observations. The primary goals of AIDA are to (1) perform a full-scale demonstration of asteroid deflection by kinetic impact; (2) measure the resulting deflection; and (3) validate and improve models for momentum transfer in high-speed impacts on an asteroid. The combined DART and AIM missions will provide the first measurements of momentum transfer efficiency from a kinetic impact at full scale on an asteroid, where the impact conditions of the projectile are known, and physical properties and internal structures of the target asteroid are also characterized. In addition to a predicted 4.4 minute change in the binary orbit period, assuming unit momentum transfer efficiency, the DART kinetic impact is predicted to induce forced librations of the Didymos secondary of possibly several degrees amplitude. Models predict the impact will create a 6-17 meter diameter crater, depending on target physical properties, and it will release a volume of particulate ejecta that may be directly observable from Earth or even resolvable as a coma or an ejecta tail by ground-based telescopes. Current simulations of the DART impact provide predictions for momentum transfer, crater size, and ejecta mass following impact. Additional work benchmarking impact hydrocodes with one another provides a way to bound the uncertainty in these critical simulations, allowing better predictions for the momentum transfer to the moon of Didymos.

Spacewatch Survey of the Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McMillan, Robert S.

2000-01-01

The purpose of the Spacewatch project is to explore the various populations of small objects throughout the solar system. Statistics on all classes of small bodies are needed to infer their physical and dynamical evolution. More Earth Approachers need to be found to assess the impact hazard. (We have adopted the term "Earth Approacher", EA, to include all those asteroids, nuclei of extinct short period comets, and short period comets that can approach close to Earth. The adjective "near" carries potential confusion, as we have found in communicating with the media, that the objects are always near Earth, following it like a cloud.) Persistent and voluminous accumulation of astrometry of incidentally observed main belt asteroids MBAs will eventually permit the Minor Planet Center (MPQ to determine the orbits of large numbers (tens of thousands) of asteroids. Such a large body of information will ultimately allow better resolution of orbit classes and the determinations of luminosity functions of the various classes, Comet and asteroid recoveries are essential services to planetary astronomy. Statistics of objects in the outer solar system (Centaurs, scattered-disk objects, and Trans-Neptunian Objects; TNOs) ultimately will tell part of the story of solar system evolution. Spacewatch led the development of sky surveying by electronic means and has acted as a responsible interface to the media and general public on this discipline and on the issue of the hazard from impacts by asteroids and comets.

The Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM): Studying the geophysics of small binaries, measuring asteroid deflection and studying impact physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kueppers, Michael; Michel, Patrick; AIM Team

2016-10-01

Binary asteroids and their formation mechanisms are of particular interest for understanding the evolution of the small bodies in the solar system. Also, hazards to Earth from impact of near-Earth asteroids and their mitigation have drawn considerable interest over the last decades.Those subjects are both addressed by ESA's Asteroid Impact mission, which is part of the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) currently under study in collaboration between NASA and ESA. NASA's DART mission will impact a projectile into the minor component of the binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos in 2022. The basic idea is to demonstrate the effect of the impact on the orbital period of the secondary around the primary. ESA's AIM will monitor the Didymos system for several months around the DART impact time.AIM will be launched in aurumn 2020. It is foreseen to arrive at Didymos in April 2022. The mission takes advantage of a close approach of Didymos to Earth. The next opportunity would arise in 2040 only.AIM will stay near Didymos for approximately 6 months. Most of the time it will be placed on the illuminated side of the system, at distances of approximately 35 km and 10 km. AIM is expected to move away from Didymos for some time around the DART impact.The reference payload for AIM includes two visual imagers, a hyperspectral camera, a lidar, a thermal infrared imager, a monostatic high frequency radar, and a bistatic low frequency radar. In addition, AIM will deploy a small lander on the secondary asteroid, and two cubesats that will be used for additional, more risky investigations close to or on the surface of the asteroid.Major contributions from AIM are expected in the study of the geophysics of small asteroids (including for the first time, radar measurements of an interior structure), the formation of binary asteroids, the momentum enhancement factor from the DART impact (through measuring the mass and the change of orbit of the seondary), and impact physics through observing the outcome of an impact with well known impact conditions. In addition, AIM will test new technologies (Cubesats in interplanetary space, Intersatellite links, optical telecommunication in deep space, infrared navigation).

Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, William; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

2015-08-01

Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid's orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.

Integrated Blowoff and Breakup Calculations for Asteroid Deflection by Nuclear Ablation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruck Syal, M.; Owen, M.; Dearborn, D. S.; Miller, P. L.

2016-12-01

When the warning timing is short, hazardous asteroids or comets can only be deflected off of an Earth-impacting trajectory by a nuclear device [1]. Here we model asteroid response to a standoff nuclear explosion, a problem which requires sub-millimeter spatial resolution at the body's surface to fully capture x-ray energy deposition. The first stage of the calculation focuses on modeling blowoff momentum from vaporized material, using a problem domain confined to the uppermost surface of the asteroid. Once the blowoff momentum transfer process is complete, the problem is remapped into a coarser resolution and the remainder of the asteroid body is added to the calculation, so that asteroid response can be tracked over longer timescales. This two-stage approach enables an integrated assessment of both the efficacy of momentum delivery and damage incurred by the bulk of the asteroid. Investigating the degree of post-ablation fracture, fragmentation, and fragment dispersion is necessary for modeling the outcomes of cases intended to fully fragment and disperse the body (disruption), as well as cases where the bulk of the asteroid should remain intact (deflection). We begin with 500-m spherical asteroids but also extend our analysis to radar-derived asteroid shape models. [1] Dearborn, D.S.P., Miller, P.L., 2014. Deflecting or Disrupting a Threatening Object, in: Pelton, J.N., Allahdadi, F. (Eds.), Handbook of Cosmic Hazards and Planetary Defense, Springer. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52- 07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-699631.

An Optimal Mitigation Strategy Against the Asteroid Impact Threat with Short Warning Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Barbee, Brent W.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results.

Modeling Momentum Transfer from Kinetic Impacts: Implications for Redirecting Asteroids

DOE PAGES

Stickle, A. M.; Atchison, J. A.; Barnouin, O. S.; ...

2015-05-19

Kinetic impactors are one way to deflect a potentially hazardous object headed for Earth. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is designed to test the effectiveness of this approach and is a joint effort between NASA and ESA. The NASA-led portion is the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) and is composed of a ~300-kg spacecraft designed to impact the moon of the binary system 65803 Didymos. The deflection of the moon will be measured by the ESA-led Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) (which will characterize the moon) and from ground-based observations. Because the material properties and internal structure ofmore » the target are poorly constrained, however, analytical models and numerical simulations must be used to understand the range of potential outcomes. Here, we describe a modeling effort combining analytical models and CTH simulations to determine possible outcomes of the DART impact. We examine a wide parameter space and provide predictions for crater size, ejecta mass, and momentum transfer following the impact into the moon of the Didymos system. For impacts into “realistic” asteroid types, these models produce craters with diameters on the order of 10 m, an imparted Δv of 0.5–2 mm/s and a momentum enhancement of 1.07 to 5 for a highly porous aggregate to a fully dense rock.« less

Dynamical features of hazardous near-Earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emel'yanenko, V. V.; Naroenkov, S. A.

2015-07-01

We discuss the dynamical features of near-Earth objects moving in dangerous proximity to Earth. We report the computation results for the motions of all observed near-Earth objects over a 600-year-long time period: 300 years in the past and 300 years in the future. We analyze the dynamical features of Earth-approaching objects. In particular, we established that the observed distribution of geocentric velocities of dangerous objects depends on their size. No bodies with geocentric velocities smaller that 5 kms-1 have been found among hazardous objects with absolute magnitudes H <18, whereas 9% of observed objects with H <27 pass near Earth moving at such velocities. On the other hand, we found a tendency for geocentric velocities to increase at H >29. We estimated the distribution of absolute magnitudes of hazardous objects based on our analysis of the data for the asteroids that have passed close to Earth. We inferred the Earth-impact frequencies for objects of different sizes. Impacts of objects with H <18 with Earth occur on average once every 0.53 Myr, and impacts of objects with H <27—once every 130-240 years. We show that currently about 0.1% of all near-Earth objects with diameters greater than 10 m have been discovered. We point out the discrepancies between the estimates of impact rates of Chelyabinsk-type objects, determined from fireball observations and from the data of telescopic asteroid tracking surveys. These estimates can be reconciled assuming that Chelyabinsk-sized asteroids have very low albedos (about 0.02 on average).

Impact Hazard Assessment for 2011 AG5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chesley, Steven R.; Bhaskaran, S.; Chodas, P. W.; Grebow, D.; Landau, D.; Petropoulos, A. E.; Sims, J. A.; Yeomans, D. K.

2012-10-01

2011 AG5 is a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid roughly 140 m in diameter. The current orbit determination, based on 213 optical measurements from 2010-Nov-08.6 to 2011-Sep-21.4, allows for the possibility of an Earth impact on 2040-Feb-05.2 with probability 0.2%. The 2040 potential impact is a 17:10 resonant return from a 2023 Earth encounter, where if the asteroid passes through a 365 km keyhole, it will go on to impact in 2040. We discuss the critical points on the decision tree for averting this potential impact. The decision to proceed with a deflection mission should not be made prematurely, when there is still a chance for eliminating the impact hazard through observations rather than intervention, and yet the decision must not be delayed past the point where it is no longer feasible to achieve a deflection. Thus the decision tree is informed by the evolution of the asteroid’s orbital uncertainty and by the available mission scenarios. We approach the orbital prediction problem by assessing the expected future evolution of the orbital uncertainty at the 2040 encounter based on various observational scenarios. We find that observations made at the next favorable apparition in 2013 are 95% likely to eliminate the possibility of a 2040 impact altogether. With the addition of 2015-16 observations, this likelihood increases to about 99%. Conversely, if the asteroid turns out to really be on an Earth impacting trajectory, the 2013 observations could raise the chance of impact to 10-15%, and observations in 2015-2016 could raise the chance of impact to 70%. On the deflection side, we describe a range of viable kinetic deflection mission scenarios. Mission timelines allow detailed planning to be delayed until after the 2013 observations and spacecraft fabrication to be delayed until after the 2015-16 observations. The full report is available at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news175.html.

Numerical and Probabilistic Analysis of Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazard Mitigation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

object on Jupiter are reminders and warning signals that we should take seriously. The extinction of the dinosaurs has been attributed to the impact of a...experimentally determined absorption patterns. These energy deposition processes are independent, so a piecemeal approach is physically reasonable . We

The Spaceguard Survey: Report of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David (Editor)

1992-01-01

Impacts by Earth-approaching asteroids and comets pose a significant hazard to life and property. Although the annual probability of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid or comet is extremely small, the consequences of such a collision are so catastrophic that it is prudent to assess the nature of the threat and to prepare to deal with it. The first step in any program for the prevention or mitigation of impact catastrophes must involve a comprehensive search for Earth-crossing asteroids and comets and a detailed analysis of their orbits. At the request of the U.S. Congress, NASA has carried out a preliminary study to define a program for dramatically increasing the detection rate of Earth-crossing objects, as documented in this workshop report.

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test in the AIDA Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Andrew; Reed, Cheryl; Rivkin, Andrew

2016-07-01

The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will be the first space experiment to demonstrate asteroid impact hazard mitigation by using a kinetic impactor. AIDA is a joint ESA-NASA cooperative project, consisting of the ESA Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) rendezvous mission and the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission. The AIDA target is the near-Earth binary asteroid 65803 Didymos, which will make an unusually close approach to Earth in October, 2022. The DART spacecraft is designed to impact the Didymos secondary at 7 km/s and demonstrate the ability to modify its trajectory through momentum transfer. DART and AIM are currently Phase A studies supported by NASA and ESA respectively. The primary goals of AIDA are (1) perform a full-scale demonstration of the spacecraft kinetic impact technique for deflection of an asteroid; (2) measure the resulting asteroid deflection, by targeting the secondary member of a binary NEO and measuring the resulting changes of the binary orbit; and (3) study hyper-velocity collision effects on an asteroid, validating models for momentum transfer in asteroid impacts based on measured physical properties of the asteroid surface and sub-surface, and including long-term dynamics of impact ejecta. The primary DART objectives are to demonstrate a hyper-velocity impact on the Didymos moon and to determine the resulting deflection from ground-based observations. The DART impact on the Didymos secondary will change the orbital period of the binary which can be measured by supporting Earth-based optical and radar observations. The baseline DART mission launches in December, 2020 to impact the Didymos secondary in September,2022. There are multiple launch opportunities for DART leading to impact around the 2022 Didymos close approach to Earth. The AIM spacecraft will be launched in Dec. 2020 and arrive at Didymos in spring, 2022, several months before the DART impact. AIM will characterize the Didymos binary system by means of remote sensing and in-situ instruments both before and after the DART impact. The asteroid deflection will be measured to higher accuracy, and additional results of the DART impact, like the impact crater, will be studied in detail by the AIM mission. The combined DART and AIM missions will provide the first measurements of momentum transfer efficiency from hyper-velocity kinetic impact at full scale on an asteroid, where the impact conditions of the projectile are known, and physical properties and internal structures of the target asteroid are also characterized. The DART impact on the Didymos secondary is predicted to cause a 4.4 minute change in the binary orbit period, assuming unit momentum transfer efficiency. The predicted transfer efficiency would be in the range 1.1 to 1.3 for a porous target material based on a variety of numerical and analytical methods, but may be much larger if the target is non-porous. The DART kinetic impact is predicted to make a crater of 6 to 17 meters diameter, depending on target physical properties, but will also release a large volume of particulate ejecta that may be directly observable from Earth or even resolvable as a coma or an ejecta tail by ground-based telescopes.

Analysis of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, J. O.; Burkhard, C. D.; Dotson, J. L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Mathias, D. L.; Aftosmis, M. J.; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Morrison, D. D.; Sears, D. W. G.; Berger, M. J.

2015-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration initiated a new project focused on Planetary Defense on October 1, 2014. The new project is funded by NASAs Near Earth Object Program (Lindley Johnson, Program Executive). This presentation describes the objectives, functions and plans of four tasks encompassed in the new project and their inter-relations. Additionally, this project provides for outreach to facilitate partnerships with other organizations to help meet the objectives of the planetary defense community. The four tasks are (1) Characterization of Near Earth Asteroids, (2) Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup (3) Surface Impact Modeling and (4) Physics-Based Impact Risk Assessment.

Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): A Space-Based System Concept for Revolutionizing Earth Protection and Utilization of Near-Earth Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazanek, Daniel D.; Roithmayr, Carlos M.; Antol, Jeffrey; Kay-Bunnell, Linda; Werner, Martin R.; Park, Sang-Young; Kumar, Renjith R.

2002-01-01

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS is a future spacebased system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This paper provides a summary of CAPS and discusses several key areas and technologies that are being investigated.

The Impact Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David

1994-01-01

The Earth has been subject to hypervelocity impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive cur-rent search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. We know the steep power-law relationship between NEO numbers and size, with many more small bodies than large ones. We also know that few objects less than about 50 m in diameter (with kinetic energy near 10 megatons) penetrate the atmosphere and are capable of doing surface damage. But there is a spectrum of possible impact hazards associated with objects from this 10-megaton threshold all the way up to NEOs 5 km or larger in diameter, which are capable of inflicting severe damage on the environment, leading to mass extinction's of species. Detailed analysis has shown that, in general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. However, the impact hazard differs from the others in that it can be largely prevented by a comprehensive survey for threatening objects and the application of technological solutions to deflect or destroy objects that are found to have orbits that will lead to collision with the Earth.

Asteroids in the service of humanity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crawford, Ian A.

2013-07-01

There are at least three compelling reasons for the human race to initiate a major programme to explore and better understand the 'minor planets' of the Solar System: (1) Enhancing scientific knowledge; (2) Mitigating the impact hazard; and (3) Utilizing extraterrestrial resources. Strong synergies exist between all three. Moreover, all these activities would benefit from greater international cooperation in space exploration by the World's space agencies, and the recognition that asteroids are important targets for human and robotic exploration.

Numerical and probabilistic analysis of asteroid and comet impact hazard mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Plesko, Catherine S; Weaver, Robert P; Huebner, Walter F

2010-09-09

The possibility of asteroid and comet impacts on Earth has received significant recent media and scientific attention. Still, there are many outstanding questions about the correct response once a potentially hazardous object (PHO) is found. Nuclear munitions are often suggested as a deflection mechanism because they have a high internal energy per unit launch mass. However, major uncertainties remain about the use of nuclear munitions for hazard mitigation. There are large uncertainties in a PHO's physical response to a strong deflection or dispersion impulse like that delivered by nuclear munitions. Objects smaller than 100 m may be solid, and objectsmore » at all sizes may be 'rubble piles' with large porosities and little strength. Objects with these different properties would respond very differently, so the effects of object properties must be accounted for. Recent ground-based observations and missions to asteroids and comets have improved the planetary science community's understanding of these objects. Computational power and simulation capabilities have improved such that it is possible to numerically model the hazard mitigation problem from first principles. Before we know that explosive yield Y at height h or depth -h from the target surface will produce a momentum change in or dispersion of a PHO, we must quantify energy deposition into the system of particles that make up the PHO. Here we present the initial results of a parameter study in which we model the efficiency of energy deposition from a stand-off nuclear burst onto targets made of PHO constituent materials.« less

Impact trajectories of the asteroid Apophis in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, L. L.; Bashakov, A. A.; Borisova, T. P.; Petrov, N. A.; Pitjev, N. P.; Shaidulin, V. S.

2012-07-01

The asteroid Apophis is one of the most hazardous near-Earth asteroids. As a result of the scattering of Apophis' potential trajectories after its close approach in 2029, and its possible approach in 2036, there are many dangerous trajectories including impact trajectories after 2036. The purpose of this study is to identify and investigate these trajectories. We use the Everhart integrator; the DE405, DE423, and EPM2008 ephemerides; and two sets of initial data for Apophis (those collected by NASA in 2006 and by the IAA in 2010). More than 50 possible encounters in this century are presented, including 13 encounters between 2036 and 2050. The minimum geocentric distances obtained using a different ephemeris and initial conditions differ little between themselves. Analogous results in (Yeomans et al., 2009) are consistent with our results.

Asteroid Apophis: Evaluating the impact hazards of such bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuvalov, V. V.; Svettsov, V. V.; Artem'eva, N. A.; Trubetskaya, I. A.; Popova, O. P.; Glazachev, D. O.

2017-01-01

Soon after the discovery of asteroid 99942 Apophis, it was classified as a potentially hazardous object with a high probability of an impact on the Earth in 2029. Although subsequent observations have substantially reduced the probability of a collision, it has not been ruled out; moreover, similar-sized asteroids in orbits intersecting the Earth's orbit may well be discovered in the near future. We conduct a numerical simulation of an atmospheric passage and an impact on the Earth's surface of a stony cosmic body with a diameter of 300 m and kinetic energy of about 1000 Mt, which roughly corresponds to the parameters of the asteroid Apophis, at atmospheric entry angles of 90° (vertical stroke), 45°, and 30°. The simulation is performed by solving three-dimensional equations of hydrodynamics and radiative transfer equations in the approximations of radiative heat conduction and volume emission. The following hazards are considered: an air shock wave, ejecta from the crater, thermal radiation, and ionospheric disturbances. Our calculations of the overpressure and wind speed on the Earth's surface show that the zone of destruction of the weakest structures can be as large as 700-1000 km in diameter; a decrease in the flight path angle to the surface leads to a marked increase in the area affected by the shock wave. The ionospheric disturbances are global in nature and continue for hours: at distances of several thousand kilometers at altitudes of more than 100 km, air density disturbances are tens of percent and the vertical and horizontal velocity components reach hundreds of meters per second. The impact of radiation on objects on the Earth's surface is estimated by solving the equation of radiative transfer along rays passing through a luminous area. In clear weather, the size of the zone where thermal heating may ignite wood can be as large as 200 km, and the zone of individual fire outbreaks associated with the ignition of flammable materials can be twice as large. In the 100-km central area, which is characterized by very strong thermal damage, there is ignition of structures, roofs, clothes, etc. The human hazardous area increases with the decrease in the trajectory angle, and people may experience thermal effects at distances of up to 250-400 km from the crater.

An Overview of the Chelyabinsk Impact Event (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chodas, P. W.; Chesley, S.

2013-12-01

On February 15, 2013, a small asteroid called 2012 DA14 was about to make a much anticipated extremely close flyby of the Earth, when an even smaller asteroid stole the show by impacting into the Earth's atmosphere near Chelyabinsk, Russia, releasing half a megaton of energy and creating a shock wave that reportedly injured more than a thousand people. The passage of a 40-meter asteroid within the ring of geosynchrounous satellites is rare, calculated to be a once-in-40-year event, and yet it was upstaged on the same day by an actual Earth impact of a previously unseen 20-meter asteroid, an event expected to occur only about once per century, on average. Infrasound-based estimates of the released energy from this impact lie in the range of from 450 to 700 kilotons, making the Chelyabinsk fireball the largest impact event since the Tunguska explosion over Siberia in 1908. From the standpoint of acquiring data, it is incredibly fortunate that this impact occurred when and where it did, i.e., near a large city, during the morning commute hours, in a country where continuously operating "dash-cams" are ubiquitous, and in an era when videos can quickly be uploaded and viewed worldwide. There are over 400 videos of the event or its effects catalogued to date, half of them viewing the fireball directly or showing its lightflash. Some of these were available online within an hour of the event, and they enabled a quick scientific assessment of both the size of the fireball and its approximate trajectory. Social media played a key role by providing an early alert to scientists and by calling attention to the online videos. Even a cursory examination of the trajectory of the fireball path revealed that the impactor entered at a very shallow entry angle (later determined to be about 17 deg to the horizontal), and that it entered from the general direction of the Sun. It was clear that the east-to-west trajectory of the Chelyabinsk impactor was very different from the south-to-north path of 2012 DA14. With such clearly different trajectories, we could assure the public with confidence that the two asteroids were unrelated. There have been several detailed analyses of the approach trajectory of the Chelyabinsk impactor, all of them indicating that the asteroid approached the Earth from within 20 degrees of the sunline. Thus, this object could not have been detected on its final approach by any of the asteroid search programs, which optically scan the night sky, well away from direction of the Sun. It is worth noting, however, that the even smaller object 2009 TC3, was discovered by a NASA-funded asteroid survey program on its final plunge to an impact in Sudan in October 2008, but it approached the Earth from the side opposite the Sun. The Chelyabinsk impact event reminds us of the hazard posed by near-Earth asteroids, and validates NASA-funded efforts to find and track as many of these potentially hazardous objects as possible.

Near-Earth Object (NEO) Hazard Background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazanek, Daniel D.

2005-01-01

The fundamental problem regarding NEO hazards is that the Earth and other planets, as well as their moons, share the solar system with a vast number of small planetary bodies and orbiting debris. Objects of substantial size are typically classified as either comets or asteroids. Although the solar system is quite expansive, the planets and moons (as well as the Sun) are occasionally impacted by these objects. We live in a cosmic shooting gallery where collisions with Earth occur on a regular basis. Because the number of smaller comets and asteroids is believed to be much greater than larger objects, the frequency of impacts is significantly higher. Fortunately, the smaller objects, which are much more numerous, are usually neutralized by the Earth's protective atmosphere. It is estimated that between 1000 and 10,000 tons of debris fall to Earth each year, most of it in the form of dust particles and extremely small meteorites. With no atmosphere, the Moon's surface is continuously impacted with dust and small debris. On November 17 and 18, 1999, during the annual Leonid meteor shower, several lunar surface impacts were observed by amateur astronomers in North America. The Leonids result from the Earth's passage each year through the debris ejected from Comet Tempel-Tuttle. These annual showers provide a periodic reminder of the possibility of a much more consequential cosmic collision, and the heavily cratered lunar surface acts a constant testimony to the impact threat. The impact problem and those planetary bodies that are a threat have been discussed in great depth in a wide range of publications and books, such as The Spaceguard Survey , Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids, and Cosmic Catastrophes. This paper gives a brief overview on the background of this problem and address some limitations of ground-based surveys for detection of small and/or faint near-Earth objects.

Near Earth Asteroid redirect missions based on gravity assist maneuver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledkov, Anton; Shustov, Boris M.; Eismont, Natan; Boyarsky, Michael; Nazirov, Ravil; Fedyaev, Konstantin

During last years several events attracted world community attention to the hazards of hitting the Earth by sky objects. One of these objects is Apophis asteroid what was expected with nonzero probability to hit the Earth in 2036. Luckily after more precise measurements this event is considered as practically improbable. But the other object has really reached the Earth, entered the atmosphere in the Chelyabinsk area and caused vast damages. After this the hazardous near Earth objects problem received practical confirmation of the necessity to find the methods of its resolution. The methods to prevent collision of the dangerous sky object with the Earth proposed up to now look not practical enough if one mentions such as gravitational tractor or changing the reflectivity of the asteroid surface. Even the method supposing the targeting of the spacecraft to the hazardous object in order to deflect it from initial trajectory by impact does not work because its low mass as compared with the mass of asteroid to be deflected. For example the mass of the Apophis is estimated to be about 40 million tons but the spacecraft which can be launched to intercept the asteroid using contemporary launchers has the mass not more than 5 tons. So the question arises where to find the heavier projectile which is possible to direct to the dangerous object? The answer proposed in our paper is very simple: to search it among small near Earth asteroids. As small ones we suppose those which have the cross section size not more than 12-15 meters and mass not exceeding 1500 -1700 tons. According to contemporary estimates the number of such asteroids is not less than 100000. The other question is how to redirect such asteroid to the dangerous one. In the paper the possibilities are studied to use for that purpose gravity assist maneuvers near Earth. It is shown that even among asteroids included in contemporary catalogue there are the ones which could be directed to the trajectory of the gravity assist maneuver near Earth resulted by following impact with dangerous asteroid. As example of the last one the Apophis was chosen. The required delta-V pulse to be applied to the candidate projectile asteroid to fulfill mentioned change of initial trajectory was confirmed to be comparatively small: not exceeding 10 m/s, and the smallest is about 2 m/s. To fulfilled this maneuver it is necessary to land and to mount on the surface of the asteroid projectile the spacecraft with sufficient amount of propellant onboard. The possible trajectories and demanded maneuvers were explored and it was confirmed that for contemporary space technology it is doable for the small asteroids belonging to the determined by our studies list of candidates supposing some reservations, namely the mass of the found asteroids. This was not considered as decisive obstacle because up to now only about 1% of small enough asteroids are included in catalogue so the list of the appropriate ones is far from to be closed. The studies have been fulfilled aimed to develop the methods to reached required accuracies of asteroid projectile trajectory parameters determination. With existing methods used for the usual spacecraft the limits of achievable accuracies demand the corrections delta-V maneuvers which may exceed the nominal ones. As a result the proposed conception of hazardous asteroids deflection becomes problematic. To overcome this obstacle in the paper new method of trajectory parameters determination is proposed and explored. Practically it is radio interferometer method when one transponder is placed on the asteroid target and two others together with the asteroid projectile form tetrahedron. This system begins to operate in vicinity of target asteroid in autonomous regime and expected to allow reaching the demanded low enough correction maneuver values. Paper gives the estimations of the accuracy of these three bodies relative motion parameters and expected limit values of correction maneuvers needed for hitting the target object. As additional option of planetary defense system construction the idea to redirect small near Earth asteroids onto the orbits resonance with the Earth orbit is explored. It is shown that it is possible to reach it by the use gravity assist maneuvers as it was described above by applying small velocity impulses to the asteroids. At least 11 asteroids were found demanded small enough delta-V for transferring them on such trajectories. After executing these maneuvers one can receive the system of asteroids approaching to the Earth practically each month with a possibility to use them as projectiles or for the purposes of delivering to the Earth their soil samples.

Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): Preliminary Space-Based Concept and Study Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazanek, Daniel D.; Roithmayr, Carlos M.; Antol, Jeffrey; Park, Sang-Young; Koons, Robert H.; Bremer, James C.; Murphy, Douglas G.; Hoffman, James A.; Kumar, Renjith R.; Seywald, Hans

2005-01-01

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) is a future space-based system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This Technical Memorandum provides a compilation of key related topics and analyses performed during the CAPS study, which was performed under the Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts (RASC) program, and discusses technologies that could enable the implementation of this future system.

Offshore Breaking of Impact Tsunami: Van Dorn was Right

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korycansky, D. G.; Lynett, P. J.

2005-01-01

Tsunami generated by the impacts of asteroids and comets into the Earth s oceans are widely recognized as a potentially catastrophic hazard to the Earth s population (e.g. Chapman and Morrison 1994, Nature, 367, 33; Hills et al. 1994, in Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids, (ed. T. Gehrels), 779; Atkinson et al. 2000, Report of the UK Task Force on Potentially Hazardous NEOs; Ward and Asphaug 2000, Icarus, 145, 64). A peculiarity of ocean impacts is the potential global effects of an impact that would otherwise be of only regional or local importance should it occur on land. This is, of course, due to the ability of waves to propagate globally, as seen by the terrible effects of the recent earthquake off the coast of Sumatra. The overall process of an impact tsunami is complex and falls into several distinct phases: 1) initial impact of the bolide into the ocean and formation of a transient cavity in the water, 2) collapse of the cavity and propagation of large waves from the impact center outward over deep water (typically several km in depth), 3) initial effects on wave amplitude as shallower water of the continental slope is reached ("wave shoaling"), possible breaking of waves in relatively shallow water (less than 100 m depth), on continental shelves, and 5) final contact of waves with the shore and their progression onto dry land ("run-up" and "run-in"). Here we report on numerical calculations (and semi-analytic theory) covering phases 3 and 4.

Edge-on View of Near-Earth Asteroids

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-16

NEOWISE, the asteroid-hunting portion of NASA WISE mission, illustrates the differences between orbits of a typical near-Earth asteroid blue and a potentially hazardous asteroid, or PHA orange. PHAs are a subset of the near-Earth asteroids NEAs.

Survey and Risk Assessment of Near Earth Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, H. B.

2010-07-01

In 1994, 21 fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 impacted Jupiter with a velocity of about 60 km/s, which is the first grand collision between celestial bodies observed by human beings. The impact makes us informed definitely that the earth is faced with the small but serious threat of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Chinese scientists of Purple Mountain Observatory proposed a plan of Chinese Near Earth Object Survey (CNEOS) in the conference on NEOs held in the building of the World Headquarters of United Nations, New York in 1995. This project started in 1998. During the past 7 years, CNEOS proceeded in selecting observational site, manufacturing telescope and CCD detector, carrying out observation, reducing mass data, and assessing impact risk from NEOs. Will those so-called potential hazardous asteroids be the terminator of mankind? In 2007, NASA proposed the Spaceguard goal to detect, track, catalogue and characterize 90% of the potentially hazardous objects with diameters greater than 140 m. This dissertation reviews the current situation of research on asteroids and NEOs, which will greatly enhance our understanding of the planetary sciences. The project of CNEOS, including selecting observational site, manufacturing telescope and CCD detector, had been put in practice since 1998. The telescope of CNEOS is a 1.04/1.20/1.80 m Schmidt telescope, equipped with a 4096 by 4096 CCD detector which has drift-scanning function. In this dissertation, the advantage and disadvantage of drift-scanning and corresponding observational method are discussed. This dissertation discusses residential district of asteroids and distribution of visual magnitudes of asteroids. As a result, we draw three principles of observational plan. This dissertation also develops algorithms of pretreatment of astronomical image, extracting objects, and cross-identification, then discusses the methods of identifying and classifying of move objects, establishes software to realize the reduction of the mass data. Until November 2007, CNEOS had found 332 new asteroids including an Apollo type NEO and a Jupiter-family periodic comet. The observation quantity of CNEOS ranked the eighth among all 378 asteroid observation plans, and the accuracy of positional reduction was also quite well. The dissertation carries out the research of dynamics of asteroids. A software on orbit determination, differential correction, dynamical evolution and asteroid ephemeris is reconstructed. This dissertation reviews the history of impact prediction theory, and covers the linear techniques for analyzing encounters, consisting of precise orbit determination and propagation followed by target plane analysis. The impact probabilities and risks between three NEOs and the earth in 200 years are calculated. In this dissertation, a set of numerical algorithms are built to discuss the observational prediction of Northern Taurids under the effect of the lunar gravitational assembling in 2011. In addition, the earth satellite measurement, the lunar orbiter measurement and lunar laser ranging measurement are used to constrain the intermediate-range gravity from λ = 1.2×107 ˜ 3.8 × 108 m.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, Alan W.; Drube, Line, E-mail: alan.harris@dlr.de

The metal content of asteroids is of great interest, not only for theories of their origins and the evolution of the solar system but, in the case of near-Earth objects (NEOs), also for impact mitigation planning and endeavors in the field of planetary resources. However, since the reflection spectra of metallic asteroids are largely featureless, it is difficult to identify them and relatively few are known. We show how data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE)/NEOWISE thermal-infrared survey and similar surveys, fitted with a simple thermal model, can reveal objects likely to be metal rich. We provide a listmore » of candidate metal-rich NEOs. Our results imply that future infrared surveys with the appropriate instrumentation could discover many more metal-rich asteroids, providing valuable data for assessment of the impact hazard and the potential of NEOs as reservoirs of vital materials for future interplanetary space activities and, eventually perhaps, for use on Earth.« less

Two cubesat mission to study the Didymos asteroid system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahlund, J.-E.; Vinterhav, E.; Trigo-Rodríguez, J. M.; Hallmann, M.; Barabash, S.; Ivchenko, N.

2015-10-01

Among the growing interest about asteroid impact hazard mitigation in our community the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will be the first space experiment to use a kinetic impactor to demonstrate its capability as reliable deflection system [1]. As a part of the AIDA mission, we have proposed a set of two three-axis stabilized 3U CubeSats (with up to 5 science sensors) to simultaneously rendezvous at close range (<500m) with both the primary and the secondary component of the Didymos asteroid system. The CubeSats will be hosted on the ESA component of the AIDA mission, the monitoring satellite AIM (Asteroid Impact Mission). The CubeSats will characterise the magnetization, the main bulk chemical composition and presence of volatiles as well as do superresolution surface imaging of the Didymos components. The CubeSats will also support the plume characterisation resulting from the DART impact (Double Asteroid Redirection Test, a NASA component of the AIDA mission) at much closer range than the AIM main spacecraft, and provide imaging, composition, and temperature of the plume material. At end of the mission, the two CubeSats can optionally land on one of the asteroids for continued science operation. The science sensors consist of a dual fluxgate magnetometer (MAG), one miniaturized volatile composition analyser (VCA), a narrow angle camera (NAC) and a Video Emission Spectrometer (VES) with a diffraction grating for allowing a sequential chemical study of the emission spectra associated with the impact flare and the expanding plume. Consequently, the different envisioned instruments onboard the CubeSats can provide significant insight into the complex response of asteroid materials during impacts that has been theoretically studied using different techniques [2]. The two CubeSats will remain stowed in CubeSat dispensers aboard the main AIM spacecraft. They will be deployed and commissioned before the AIM impactor reaches the secondary and record the impact event from a closer vantage point than the main spacecraft. The two CubeSats are equipped with relative navigation systems capable of estimating the spacecraft position relative to the asteroids and propulsion system that allow them to operate close to the asteroid bodies. The two CubeSats will rely on mapping data relayed via the AIM main spacecraft but operate autonomously and individually based on schedules and navigation maps uploaded from ground. AIDA's target is the binary Apollo asteroid 65803 Didymos that is also catalogued as Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) because it experiences close approaches to Earth. Didymos' primary has a diameter of ˜800 meters and the secondary is ˜150 m across. Both bodies are separated about 1.1 km [3]. The rotation period and asymmetry of the secondary object is unknown, and it might be tidally locked to the larger primary body. At least the primary body is expected to be associated with ordinary chondrite material, consisting mostly of silicates, and metal, but the earlier made Xk classification suggested a rubble-pile type with large amount of volatile content. The secondary companion spectral class is unknown, but the total mass of the system suggests that the secondary companion could be of similar class. Detailed empirical information on the physical properties of the Didymos asteroid system, in particular the magnetic field, the (mineralogical) surface composition, the internal composition via the bulk density, the ages of surface units through crater counts and other morphological surface features is valuable in order to make progress in the asteroid field of science. Furthermore, the periodic effect of such a close dynamic system in the presence and temporal displacement of the surface regolith is EPSC Abstracts Vol. 10, EPSC2015-698, 2015 European Planetary Science Congress 2015 c Author(s) 2015 EPSC European Planetary Science Congress unknown, and could be followed using close-up video systems provided by the CubeSats. In conclusion, the proposed two CubeSats as part of the AIDA mission can therefore contribute significantly, since they can monitor the Didymos asteroid components at a very close range around hundred meters, and at the same time monitor in-situ an impact plume when it is created.

NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office at NASA HQ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daou, D.; Johnson, L.; Fast, K. E.; Landis, R.; Friedensen, V. P.; Kelley, M.

2017-09-01

NASA and its partners maintain a watch for near-Earth objects (NEOs), asteroids and comets that pass close to the Earth, as part of an ongoing effort to discover, catalog, and characterize these bodies. The PDCO is responsible for: • Ensuring the early detection of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) - asteroids and comets whose orbit are predicted to bring them within 0.05 Astronomical Units of Earth; and of a size large enough to reach Earth's surface - that is, greater than perhaps 30 to 50 meters; • Tracking and characterizing PHOs and issuing warnings about potential impacts; • Providing timely and accurate communications about PHOs; and • Performing as a lead coordination node in U.S. Government planning for response to an actual impact threat. The PDCO collaborates with other U.S. Government agencies, other national and international agencies, and professional and amateur astronomers around the world. The PDCO also is responsible for facilitating communications between the science community and the public should any potentially hazardous NEO be discovered. In addition, the PDCO works closely with the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs, its Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, and its Action Team on Near Earth Objects (also known as Action Team 14). The PDCO is a leading member of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), multinational endeavors recommended by the United Nations for an international response to the NEO impact hazard and established and operated by the spacecapable nations. The PDCO also communicates with the scientific community through channels such as NASA's Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG). In this talk, we will provide an update to the office's various efforts and new opportunities for partnerships in the continuous international effort for Planetary Defense.

NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office at NASA HQ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daou, D.; Johnson, L.; Fast, K. E.; Landis, R.; Friedensen, V. P.; Kelley, M.

2017-12-01

NASA and its partners maintain a watch for near-Earth objects (NEOs), asteroids and comets that pass close to the Earth, as part of an ongoing effort to discover, catalog, and characterize these bodies. The PDCO is responsible for: Ensuring the early detection of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) - asteroids and comets whose orbit are predicted to bring them within 0.05 Astronomical Units of Earth; and of a size large enough to reach Earth's surface - that is, greater than perhaps 30 to 50 meters; Tracking and characterizing PHOs and issuing warnings about potential impacts; Providing timely and accurate communications about PHOs; and Performing as a lead coordination node in U.S. Government planning for response to an actual impact threat. The PDCO collaborates with other U.S. Government agencies, other national and international agencies, and professional and amateur astronomers around the world. The PDCO also is responsible for facilitating communications between the science community and the public should any potentially hazardous NEO be discovered. In addition, the PDCO works closely with the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs, its Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, and its Action Team on Near Earth Objects (also known as Action Team 14). The PDCO is a leading member of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), multinational endeavors recommended by the United Nations for an international response to the NEO impact hazard and established and operated by the space-capable nations. The PDCO also communicates with the scientific community through channels such as NASA's Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG). In this talk, we will provide an update to the office's various efforts and new opportunities for partnerships in the continuous international effort for Planetary Defense.

The Impact Threat and Public Perception

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chodas, Paul W.

2000-01-01

Recent popular movies have raised public consciousness of the very real possibility of a comet or asteroid collision with the Earth, and a news report last year implying that asteroid 1997 XF11 had a distinct chance of hitting the Earth in the year 2028 further caught the public's eye. The report of possible impact was withdrawn the very next day, and the public perceived either that astronomers had made mistaken calculations, or that the pre-discovery observations found that day had been responsible for the revised prediction. But in fact, the original report of the possibility of impact in 2028 was simply a premature assessment. The XF11 affair has demonstrated the need for clarity and precision in public communications dealing with the possibility of Earth impact, as well as the importance of peer review before results are released to the press. This year, another potentially hazardous asteroid, 1999 AN10, has made the news, and this time there is indeed a remote chance of collision. Although impact is not possible during the asteroid's primary close approach in 2027, the uncertainties allow for a remarkably close passage, and embedded within the encounter's uncertainty region are many narrow "keyholes" which could bring the asteroid back for a close approach in a later year. Three keyholes have been identified which could perturb the asteroid onto trajectories that collide with the Earth in the years 2044, 2046, or 2039. At the time of this writing, the estimated impact probability for 1999 AN10 is on the order of 1 in 500,000, larger than for any other known object, but still significantly less than the probability of an undiscovered asteroid of equivalent size striking the Earth before 2044. Additional astrometric measurements of 1999 AN10 will likely drive its impact probability down to near-zero, but this may not happen for years, testing the public's reaction to a lingering remote possibility of impact. A side effect of the increasing discovery rate for Near Earth objects will be a growing number of cases like 1999 ANIO.

A Parameter Study on the Effect of Impactor Size for NASA’s DART Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truitt, Amanda; Weaver, Robert; Gisler, Galen

2018-06-01

We have modeled the impact of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft into the binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. While the primary object is approximately 800 meters across, its secondary body (“moonlet” Didymoon) has a diameter of 150 meters, which is thought to be a much more typical size for the kind of asteroid that would pose a hazard to Earth. DART will be the first demonstration of the kinetic impact technique to change the motion of an asteroid in space, an important consideration for understanding our capabilities in planetary defense of Near-Earth Asteroids. Recent modeling of this impact has used full-density solid aluminum spheres with a mass of approximately 500 kg. Many of the published scaling laws for crater size and diameter as well as ejecta modeling assume this type of impactor, although the actual spacecraft shape being considered for the DART Mission impact is not solid and does not contain a solid dedicated kinetic impactor – rather, the spacecraft itself is considered the impactor. Since the 500 kg hollow spacecraft is significantly larger (~100 x 100 x 200 cm) in size than a solid aluminum sphere (radius ~ 36 cm) the resulting impact dynamics are quite different. Here we have modeled both types of impacts and compare the results of the simulations for crater size, depth, and ejecta for a solid sphere (R = 36 cm) and cylindrical spacecraft (R = 20, 50, and 100 cm), while maintaining a constant mass and material density. This work will allow for a more robust comparison of the momentum enhancement β-factor, which describes the gain in a momentum transfer exerted by the impacting spacecraft on a Near-Earth Object due to ejecta momentum escape. (LA-UR-18-21571)

The Detection of Collisional and Scattering Processes in the Asteroid-Meteoroid Continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, H. R.; Connos, M. A.; Russell, C. T.; Wei, H. Y.

2014-04-01

Optical and radar observations have enabled the compilation of a useful inventory of near-Earth objects down to a diameter of approximately 500m, but at smaller diameters the catalogue is sparse. This is unacceptable for several reasons. First, the most hazardous size range based on damage per impact on Earth times expected impact rate is near 50m and second, we do not know if either the spatial distribution of objects or their behavior is similar to that of the larger objects. We have reason to believe they are importantly different. Near Earth Objects evolve due to collisions with other objects. Disruptive collisions of large objects say 200m in diameter are rare because such objects are "rare" and the impactors that could disrupt a 200m class object are rare. However, near the Earth, collisions are expected to occur at relative velocities of near 20 km/sec and such a speed could disrupt a body 106 times more massive (100 times larger diameter). Our studies show that collisions that can produce objects in the range 10 to 100m in diameter are "frequent" in near-Earth space. Our studies of the asteroid 2201 Oljato at Venus and asteroid 138175 near Earth indicates that both asteroids have coorbital debris clouds presumably caused by a past non-disruptive but debris-producing collision. This has the effect of spreading the hazardous material out of the known orbit so that a false sense of security is had when the parent body is safely past the Earth. We can detect a subset of the debris trail by their destructive impacts because they create a cloud of charged nanoscale dust which in turn creates a magnetic "cloud" that enables the dust cloud to be weighed and its location roughly identified. This shows spreading in longitude, latitude, and heliocentric radius from the parent on a time scale of decades. This is much faster than some modelers have expected and over a broader range, suggesting that the debris trail receives more of the impactor momentum than anticipated. This possibly depends on the elasticity of the target asteroid. In any event, we now have a new qualitative method of tracking debris tails of hazardous materials using existing assets in space

Broadband Photometry of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2013 RH74

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, M.; Ebelhar, S.

2013-11-01

The Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) 2013 RH74 was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey on September 15 2013 (MPEC 2013-S15) and has been designated as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) by the Minor Planet Center. We obtained six partial nights of broadband Bessel BVRI photometry at the JPL Table Mountain 0.6-m telescope (TMO), as summarized in Table 1. This object was detected by planetary radar soon after discovery (http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/index.html).

Arecibo Radar Observations of Near-Earth Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera-Valentin, Edgard G.; Taylor, Patrick A.; Virkki, Anne; Saran Bhiravarasu, Sriram; Venditti, Flaviane; Zambrano-Marin, Luisa Fernanda; Aponte-Hernandez, Betzaida

2017-10-01

The Arecibo S-Band (2.38 GHz, 12.6 cm; 1 MW) planetary radar system at the 305-m William E. Gordon Telescope in Arecibo, Puerto Rico is the most active, most powerful, and most sensitive planetary radar facility in the world. As such, Arecibo is vital for post-discovery characterization and orbital refinement of near-Earth asteroids. Since August 2016, the program has observed 100 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), of which 38 are classified as potentially hazardous to Earth and 31 are compliant with the NASA Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS). Arecibo observations are critical for identifying NEAs that may be on a collision course with Earth in addition to providing detailed physical characterization of the objects themselves in terms of size, shape, spin, and surface properties, which are valuable for assessing impact mitigation strategies. Here, we will present a sampling of the asteroid zoo observed by Arecibo, including press-noted asteroids 2014 JO25 and the (163693) Atira binary system.

Design of Spacecraft Missions to Test Kinetic Impact for Asteroid Deflection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hernandez, Sonia; Barbee, Brent W.

2011-01-01

There are currently over 8,000 known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and more are being discovered on a continual basis. More than 1,200 of these are classified as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) because their Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) with Earth's orbit is <= 0.05 AU and their estimated diameters are >= 150 m. To date, 178 Earth impact structures have been discovered, indicating that our planet has previously been struck with devastating force by NEAs and will be struck again. Such collisions are aperiodic events and can occur at any time. A variety of techniques have been proposed to defend our planet from NEA impacts by deflecting the incoming asteroid. However, none of these techniques have been tested. Unless rigorous testing is conducted to produce reliable asteroid deflection systems, we will be forced to deploy completely untested -- and therefore unreliable -- deflection missions when a sizable asteroid on a collision course with Earth is discovered. Such missions will have a high probability of failure. We propose to address this problem with a campaign of deflection technology test missions deployed to harmless NEAs. The objective of these missions is to safely evaluate and refine the mission concepts and asteroid deflection system designs. Our current research focuses on the kinetic impactor, one of the simplest proposed asteroid deflection techniques in which a spacecraft is sent to collide with an asteroid at high relative velocity. By deploying test missions in the near future, we can characterize the performance of this deflection technique and resolve any problems inherent to its execution before needing to rely upon it during a true emergency. In this paper we present the methodology and results of our survey, including lists of NEAs for which safe and effective kinetic impactor test missions may be conducted within the next decade. Full mission designs are also presented for the NEAs which offer the best mission opportunities.

ASPECT spectral imaging satellite proposal to AIDA/AIM CubeSat payload

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohout, Tomas; Näsilä, Antti; Tikka, Tuomas; Penttilä, Antti; Muinonen, Karri; Kestilä, Antti; Granvik, Mikael; Kallio, Esa

2016-04-01

ASPECT (Asteroid Spectral Imaging Mission) is a part of AIDA/AIM project and aims to study the composition of the Didymos binary asteroid and the effects of space weathering and shock metamorphism in order to gain understanding of the formation and evolution of the Solar System. The joint ESA/NASA AIDA (Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment) mission to binary asteroid Didymos consists of AIM (Asteroid Impact Mission, ESA) and DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test, NASA). DART is targeted to impact Didymos secondary component (Didymoon) and serve as a kinetic impactor to demonstrate deflection of potentially hazardous asteroids. AIM will serve as an observational spacecraft to evaluate the effects of the impact and resulting changes in the Didymos dynamic parameters. The AIM mission will also carry two CubeSat miniaturized satellites, released in Didymoon proximity. This arrangement opens up a possibility for secondary scientific experiments. ASPECT is one of the proposed CubeSat payloads. Whereas Didymos is a space-weathered binary asteroid, the DART impactor is expected to produce a crater and excavate fresh material from the secondary component (Didymoon). Spectral comparison of the mature surface to the freshly exposed material will allow to directly deter-mine space weathering effects. It will be also possible to study spectral shock effects within the impact crater. ASPECT will also demonstrate for the first time the joint spacecraft - CubeSat operations in asteroid proximity and miniature spectral imager operation in deep-space environment. Science objectives: 1. Study of the surface composition of the Didymos system. 2. Photometric observations (and modeling) under varying phase angle and distance. 3. Study of space weathering effects on asteroids (comparison of mature / freshly exposed material). 4. Study of shock effects (spectral properties of crater interior). 5. Observations during the DART impact. Engineering objectives: 1. Demonstration of CubeSat semi-autonomous operations in deep space environment. 2. Navigation in the vicinity of a binary asteroid. 3. Demonstration of a satellite survival during impact. 4. Demonstration of joint spacecraft - CubeSat operations. ASPECT is a 3U CubeSat (size of 3 units, Fig. 1) equipped with a spectral imager from 500 nm to 1600 nm (spatial resolution < 2 m, spectral resolution 10 - 30 nm; VIS channel 512 x 512 pixels, NIR channel 256 x 256 pixels), and a non-imaging spectrometer from 1600 - 2500 nm. The design is based on the Aalto-1 CubeSat Spectral Imager heritage. ASPECT will also demonstrate the capabilities of a CubeSat and a miniature spectral imager for the first time in deep-space environment. Acknowledgements: This work is done under Sys-Nova: R&D Studies Competition for Innovation contract with ESA.

Compositional differences between meteorites and near-Earth asteroids.

PubMed

Vernazza, P; Binzel, R P; Thomas, C A; DeMeo, F E; Bus, S J; Rivkin, A S; Tokunaga, A T

2008-08-14

Understanding the nature and origin of the asteroid population in Earth's vicinity (near-Earth asteroids, and its subset of potentially hazardous asteroids) is a matter of both scientific interest and practical importance. It is generally expected that the compositions of the asteroids that are most likely to hit Earth should reflect those of the most common meteorites. Here we report that most near-Earth asteroids (including the potentially hazardous subset) have spectral properties quantitatively similar to the class of meteorites known as LL chondrites. The prominent Flora family in the inner part of the asteroid belt shares the same spectral properties, suggesting that it is a dominant source of near-Earth asteroids. The observed similarity of near-Earth asteroids to LL chondrites is, however, surprising, as this meteorite class is relatively rare ( approximately 8 per cent of all meteorite falls). One possible explanation is the role of a size-dependent process, such as the Yarkovsky effect, in transporting material from the main belt.

The Contemporary Hazard of Cometary Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David

1994-01-01

Cosmic impacts pose a continuing hazard of loss of human life and property. Significant contemporary risk is associated with projectiles in the energy range from about 10 megatons of TNT up to the size of the K/T impactor. The lower threshold for damage is defined by the atmosphere of the Earth, which effectively shields us From smaller projectiles. Up to energies of about a gigaton of TNT, the effects are local or regional for impacts on the land, or coastal for ocean impacts, which can generate large tsunamis. A greater risk is associated with still larger impacts, which are capable of causing global ecological catastrophe, possibly leading to mass mortality From starvation and epidemics. If such a impact took place anywhere on Earth during our lifetimes, we would each be in danger, independent of where the projectile struck. Statistical estimates indicate that each human on this planet runs a risk of roughly 1 in 20,000 of dying from this cause. Prudence suggests that we should be concerned about such impacts and seek ways of avoiding them or mitigating their consequences. The primary objective of any program to deal with this hazard is to determine whether or not such a near-term impact is likely. The best approach for the asteroidal component is a comprehensive telescopic survey, which can discover all Earth-crossing asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter and provide decades of warning in which to plan ways to deflect or destroy a threatening object. Long-period comets, however, pose a much greater challenge, since they cannot be discovered long in advance of a possible impact, their orbits are harder to predict, and they are significantly more difficult to deflect or destroy.

New Hypervelocity Terminal Intercept Guidance Systems for Deflecting/Disrupting Hazardous Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyzhoft, Joshua Richard

Computational modeling and simulations of visual and infrared (IR) sensors are investigated for a new hypervelocity terminal guidance system of intercepting small asteroids (50 to 150 meters in diameter). Computational software tools for signal-to-noise ratio estimation of visual and IR sensors, estimation of minimum and maximum ranges of target detection, and GPU (Graphics Processing Units)-accelerated simulations of the IR-based terminal intercept guidance systems are developed. Scaled polyhedron models of known objects, such as the Rosetta mission's Comet 67P/C-G, NASA's OSIRIS-REx Bennu, and asteroid 433 Eros, are utilized in developing a GPU-based simulation tool for the IR-based terminal intercept guidance systems. A parallelized-ray tracing algorithm for simulating realistic surface-to-surface shadowing of irregular-shaped asteroids or comets is developed. Polyhedron solid-angle approximation is also considered. Using these computational models, digital image processing is investigated to determine single or multiple impact locations to assess the technical feasibility of new planetary defense mission concepts of utilizing a Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) or a Multiple Kinetic-energy Interceptor Vehicle (MKIV). Study results indicate that the IR-based guidance system outperforms the visual-based system in asteroid detection and tracking. When using an IR sensor, predicting impact locations from filtered images resulted in less jittery spacecraft control accelerations than conducting missions with a visual sensor. Infrared sensors have also the possibility to detect asteroids at greater distances, and if properly used, can aid in terminal phase guidance for proper impact location determination for the MKIV system. Emerging new topics of the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) estimation and the Full-Two-Body Problem (F2BP) formulation are also investigated to assess a potential near-Earth object collision risk and the proximity gravity effects of an irregular-shaped binary-asteroid target on a standoff nuclear explosion mission.

Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong

2012-01-01

The complex problem of protecting the Earth from the possibility of a catastrophic impact by a hazardous near-Earth object (NEO) has been recently reassessed in [1]. In a letter on NEOs from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to the U.S. Senate and Congress in 2010, the White House OSTP strongly recommended that NASA take the lead in conducting research activities for NEO detection, characterization, and deflection technologies. Furthermore, President Obama's new National Space Policy specifically directs NASA to "pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize NEOs to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet." The Planetary Defense Task Force of the NASA Advisory Council also recommended that the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) begin efforts to investigate asteroid deflection techniques. With national interest growing in the United States, the NEO threat detection and mitigation problem was recently identified as one of NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges. An innovative solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge problem was developed through a NIAC Phase I study (9/16/11 - 9/15/12), and it will be further investigated for a NIAC Phase II study (9/10/12 - 9/9/14). Various NEO deflection technologies, including nuclear explosions, kinetic impactors, and slow-pull gravity tractors, have been proposed and examined during the past two decades. Still, there is no consensus on how to reliably deflect or disrupt hazardous NEOs in a timely manner. It is expected that the most probable mission scenarios will have a mission lead time much shorter than 10 years, so the use of nuclear explosives becomes the most feasible method for planetary defense. Direct intercept missions with a short warning time will result in arrival closing velocities of 10-30 kilometers per second with respect to the target asteroid. Given such a large arrival delta V requirement, a rendezvous mission to the target asteroid is infeasible with existing launch vehicles. Furthermore, state-of-the-art penetrating subsurface nuclear explosion technology limits the penetrator's impact velocity to less than approximately 300 meters per second because higher impact velocities prematurely destroy the nuclear fuzing mechanisms. Therefore, significant advances in hypervelocity nuclear interceptor/ penetrator technology must be achieved to enable a last-minute nuclear disruption mission with intercept velocities as high as 30 kilometers per second. Consequently, a HAIV (Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle) mission architecture (Figure 1.1), which blends a hypervelocity kinetic impactor with a subsurface nuclear explosion for optimal fragmentation and dispersion of hazardous NEOs, has been developed through a Phase I study, and it will be further developed and validated through a Phase II study.

Amor: Investigating The Triple Asteroid System 2001 SN263

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T.; Bellerose, Julie; Lee, P.; Prettyman, T.; Lawrence, D.; Smith, P.; Gaffey, M.; Nolan, M.; Goldsten, J.; Thomas, P.; Veverka, J.; Farquhar, R.; Heldmann, J.; Reddy, V.; Williams, B.; Chartres, J.; DeRosee, R.; Dunham, D.

2010-10-01

The Amor mission will rendezvous and land at the triple Near-Earth Asteroid system (153591) 2001 SN263 and execute detailed, in-situ science investigations. The spacecraft reaches 2001 SN263 by using a two-year ΔVEGA (ΔV-Earth Gravity Assist) trajectory with a relatively low launch C3 of 33.5 km2/s2. Rendezvous will enable reconnaissance activities including global and regional imaging, shape modeling, system dynamics, and compositional mapping. After landing, Amor will conduct in-situ imaging (panoramic to microscopic scale) and compositional measurements to include elemental abundance. The main objectives are to 1) establish in-situ the long-hypothesized link between C-type asteroids and the primitive carbonaceous chondrite (CC) meteorites, 2) investigate the nature, origin and evolution of C-type asteroids, and 3) investigate the origin and evolution of a multiple asteroid system. The mission also addresses the distribution of volatiles and organic materials, impact hazards, and resources for future exploration. Amor is managed by NASA Ames Research Center in partnership with Orbital Sciences, KinetX, MDA, and Draper with heritage instruments provided by Ball Aerospace, JHU/APL, and Firestar Engineering. The science team brings experience from NEAR, Hayabusa, Deep Impact, Dawn, LCROSS, Kepler, and Mars missions. In this paper, we describe the science, mission design, and main operational challenges of performing in-situ science at this triple asteroid system. Challenges include landing on the asteroid components, thermal environment, short day-night cycles, and the operation of deployed instruments in a low gravity (10^-5 g) environment.

Dynamical history of the asteroid belt and implications for terrestrial pla net bombardment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minton, David Andrew

The main asteroid belt spans ~ 2-4 AU in heliocentric distance and is sparsely populated by rocky debris. The dynamical structure of the main belt records clues to past events in solar system history. Evidence from the structure of the Kuiper belt, an icy debris belt beyond Neptune, suggests that the giant planets were born in a more compact configuration and later experienced planetesimal-driven planet migration. Giant planet migration caused both mean motion and secular resonances to sweep across the main asteroid belt, raising the eccentricity of asteroids into planet-crossing orbits and depleting the belt. I show that the present-day semimajor axis and eccentricity distributions of large main belt asteroids are consistent with excitation and depletion due to resonance sweeping during the epoch of giant planet migration. I also use an analytical model of the sweeping of the n 6 secular resonance, to set limits on the migration speed of Saturn. After planet migration, dynamical chaos became the dominant loss mechanism for asteroids with diameters D [Special characters omitted.] 10 km in the current asteroid belt. I find that the dynamical loss history of test particles from this region is well described with a logarithmic decay law. My model suggests that the rate of impacts from large asteroids may have declined by a factor of three over the last ~ 3 Gy, and that the present-day impact flux of D > 10 km objects on the terrestrial planets is roughly an order of magnitude less than estimates used in crater chronologies and impact hazard risk assessments. Finally, I have quantified the change in the solar wind 6 Li/ 7 Li ratio due to the estimated in-fall of chondritic material and enhanced dust production during the epoch of planetesimal-driven giant planet migration. The solar photosphere is currently highly depleted in lithium relative to chondrites, and 6 Li is expected to be far less abundant in the sun than 7 Li due to the different nuclear reaction rates of the two isotopes. Evidence for a short- lived impact cataclysm that affected the entire inner solar system may be found in the composition of implanted solar wind particles in lunar regolith.

New Research by CCD Scanning for Comets and Asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gehrels, Tom; McMillan, Robert S.

1997-01-01

The purpose of Spacewatch is to explore the various populations of small objects within the solar system. Spacewatch provides data for studies of comets and asteroids, finds potential targets for space missions, and provides information on the environmental problem of possible impacts. Moving objects are discovered by scanning the sky with charge-coupled devices (CCDs) on the 0.9-meter Spacewatch Telescope of the University of Arizona on Kitt Peak. Each Spacewatch scan consists of three drift scan passes over an area of sky using a CCD filtered to a bandpass of 0.5-1.0 microns (approximately V+R+I with peak sensitivity at 0.7 micron). The effective exposure time for each pass is 143 seconds multiplied by the secant of the declination. We have been finding some 30,000 new asteroids per year and applying their statistics to the study of the collisional history of the solar system. As of the end of the observing run of Nov. 1997, Spacewatch had found a total of 153 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and 8 new comets since the project began in the 1980s, and had recovered one lost comet. The total number of NEAs found by Spacewatch big enough to be hazardous if they were to impact the Earth is 36. Spacewatch is also efficient in recovery of known comets and has detected and reported positions for more than 137,000 asteroids, mostly new ones in the main belt, including more than 16,000 asteroids designated by the Minor Planet Center (MPC).

Thermal Tomography of Asteroid Surface Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Alan W.; Drube, Line

2016-12-01

Knowledge of the surface thermal inertia of an asteroid can provide insight into its surface structure: porous material has a lower thermal inertia than rock. We develop a means to estimate thermal inertia values of asteroids and use it to show that thermal inertia appears to increase with spin period in the case of main-belt asteroids (MBAs). Similar behavior is found on the basis of thermophysical modeling for near-Earth objects (NEOs). We interpret our results in terms of rapidly increasing material density and thermal conductivity with depth, and provide evidence that thermal inertia increases by factors of 10 (MBAs) to 20 (NEOs) within a depth of just 10 cm. Our results are consistent with a very general picture of rapidly changing material properties in the topmost regolith layers of asteroids and have important implications for calculations of the Yarkovsky effect, including its perturbation of the orbits of potentially hazardous objects and those of asteroid family members after the break-up event. Evidence of a rapid increase of thermal inertia with depth is also an important result for studies of the ejecta-enhanced momentum transfer of impacting vehicles (“kinetic impactors”) in planetary defense.

THERMAL TOMOGRAPHY OF ASTEROID SURFACE STRUCTURE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, Alan W.; Drube, Line, E-mail: alan.harris@dlr.de

Knowledge of the surface thermal inertia of an asteroid can provide insight into its surface structure: porous material has a lower thermal inertia than rock. We develop a means to estimate thermal inertia values of asteroids and use it to show that thermal inertia appears to increase with spin period in the case of main-belt asteroids (MBAs). Similar behavior is found on the basis of thermophysical modeling for near-Earth objects (NEOs). We interpret our results in terms of rapidly increasing material density and thermal conductivity with depth, and provide evidence that thermal inertia increases by factors of 10 (MBAs) tomore » 20 (NEOs) within a depth of just 10 cm. Our results are consistent with a very general picture of rapidly changing material properties in the topmost regolith layers of asteroids and have important implications for calculations of the Yarkovsky effect, including its perturbation of the orbits of potentially hazardous objects and those of asteroid family members after the break-up event. Evidence of a rapid increase of thermal inertia with depth is also an important result for studies of the ejecta-enhanced momentum transfer of impacting vehicles (“kinetic impactors”) in planetary defense.« less

Asteroid diversion considerations and comparisons of diversion techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Owen, J. Michael; Miller, Paul; Rovny, Jared

The threat of asteroid impacts on Earth poses a low-probability but high consequence risk, with possible outcomes ranging from regional to global catastrophe. However, unique amongst such global threats we have the capability of averting such disasters. Diversion approaches by either kinetic impactor or nuclear energy deposition are the two most practical technologies for mitigating hazardous near Earth asteroids. One of the greatest challenges in understanding our options is the uncertain response of asteroids to such impulsive techniques, due both to our lack of knowledge of the composition and structure of these objects as well as their highly varied nature.more » Predicting whether we will simply divert or break up a given object is a crucial: the weak self-gravity and inferred weak structure of typical asteroids present the strong possibility the body will fragment for modest impulses. Predictive modeling of failure and fragmentation is one important tool for such studies. In this paper we apply advances in modeling failure and fracture using Adaptive Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (ASPH) to understand mega-cratering on asteroids as a validation exercise, and show examples of diverting the near Earth asteroid Bennu using both a kinetic impactor and ablative blow-off due to nuclear energy deposition.« less

Asteroid diversion considerations and comparisons of diversion techniques

DOE PAGES

Owen, J. Michael; Miller, Paul; Rovny, Jared; ...

2015-05-19

The threat of asteroid impacts on Earth poses a low-probability but high consequence risk, with possible outcomes ranging from regional to global catastrophe. However, unique amongst such global threats we have the capability of averting such disasters. Diversion approaches by either kinetic impactor or nuclear energy deposition are the two most practical technologies for mitigating hazardous near Earth asteroids. One of the greatest challenges in understanding our options is the uncertain response of asteroids to such impulsive techniques, due both to our lack of knowledge of the composition and structure of these objects as well as their highly varied nature.more » Predicting whether we will simply divert or break up a given object is a crucial: the weak self-gravity and inferred weak structure of typical asteroids present the strong possibility the body will fragment for modest impulses. Predictive modeling of failure and fragmentation is one important tool for such studies. In this paper we apply advances in modeling failure and fracture using Adaptive Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (ASPH) to understand mega-cratering on asteroids as a validation exercise, and show examples of diverting the near Earth asteroid Bennu using both a kinetic impactor and ablative blow-off due to nuclear energy deposition.« less

The global impact distribution of Near-Earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rumpf, Clemens; Lewis, Hugh G.; Atkinson, Peter M.

2016-02-01

Asteroids that could collide with the Earth are listed on the publicly available Near-Earth object (NEO) hazard web sites maintained by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA). The impact probability distribution of 69 potentially threatening NEOs from these lists that produce 261 dynamically distinct impact instances, or Virtual Impactors (VIs), were calculated using the Asteroid Risk Mitigation and Optimization Research (ARMOR) tool in conjunction with OrbFit. ARMOR projected the impact probability of each VI onto the surface of the Earth as a spatial probability distribution. The projection considers orbit solution accuracy and the global impact probability. The method of ARMOR is introduced and the tool is validated against two asteroid-Earth collision cases with objects 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA. In the analysis, the natural distribution of impact corridors is contrasted against the impact probability distribution to evaluate the distributions' conformity with the uniform impact distribution assumption. The distribution of impact corridors is based on the NEO population and orbital mechanics. The analysis shows that the distribution of impact corridors matches the common assumption of uniform impact distribution and the result extends the evidence base for the uniform assumption from qualitative analysis of historic impact events into the future in a quantitative way. This finding is confirmed in a parallel analysis of impact points belonging to a synthetic population of 10,006 VIs. Taking into account the impact probabilities introduced significant variation into the results and the impact probability distribution, consequently, deviates markedly from uniformity. The concept of impact probabilities is a product of the asteroid observation and orbit determination technique and, thus, represents a man-made component that is largely disconnected from natural processes. It is important to consider impact probabilities because such information represents the best estimate of where an impact might occur.

Climatic Effects of Medium-Sized Asteroid Impacts on Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, C.; Garcia, R. R.; Toon, O. B.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

2015-12-01

Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to a medium-sized (1 km) asteroid impact on the land. An impact of this size would cause local fires and may also generate submicron dust particles. Dust aerosols are injected into the upper atmosphere where they persist for ~3 years. Soot aerosols from fires are injected into the troposphere and absorb solar radiation heating the air which helps loft the soot into the stratosphere where it persists for ~10 years. Initially, these aerosols cause a heating of over 240 K in the stratosphere and up to a 70% reduction in downwelling solar radiation at the surface. Global average surface temperature cools by as much as -8.5 K, ocean temperature cools by -4.5 K, precipitation is reduced by 50%, and the ozone column is reduced by 55%. The surface UV Index exceeds 20 in the tropics for several years. These changes represent a significant hazard to life on a global scale. These results extend the work of Pierazzo et al. (2010), also using CESM, which found a significant impact on stratospheric ozone, but little change in surface temperature or precipitation, from a 1 km asteroid impact in the ocean.

Enhanced Gravity Tractor Technique for Planetary Defense

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazanek, Daniel D.; Reeves, David M.; Hopkins, Joshua B.; Wade, Darren W.; Tantardini, Marco; Shen, Haijun

2015-01-01

Given sufficient warning time, Earth-impacting asteroids and comets can be deflected with a variety of different "slow push/pull" techniques. The gravity tractor is one technique that uses the gravitational attraction of a rendezvous spacecraft to the impactor and a low-thrust, high-efficiency propulsion system to provide a gradual velocity change and alter its trajectory. An innovation to this technique, known as the Enhanced Gravity Tractor (EGT), uses mass collected in-situ to augment the mass of the spacecraft, thereby greatly increasing the gravitational force between the objects. The collected material can be a single boulder, multiple boulders, regolith or a combination of different sources. The collected mass would likely range from tens to hundreds of metric tons depending on the size of the impactor and warning time available. Depending on the propulsion system's capability and the mass collected, the EGT approach can reduce the deflection times by a factor of 10 to 50 or more, thus reducing the deflection times of several decades to years or less and overcoming the main criticism of the traditional gravity tractor approach. Additionally, multiple spacecraft can orbit the target in formation to provide the necessary velocity change and further reduce the time needed by the EGT technique to divert hazardous asteroids and comets. The robotic segment of NASA's Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) will collect a multi-ton boulder from the surface of a large Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) and will provide the first ever demonstration of the EGT technique and validate one method of collecting in-situ mass on an asteroid of hazardous size.

NASA Space Missions to Asteroids: Protecting the Earth from NEO Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David; Berry, William E. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

There is now a general recognition of the hazard of impacts on Earth by comets and asteroids, but there is yet no consensus concerning international actions that should be taken to protect the planet from such impacts. An essential step in the analysis of the situation involves estimating the relative hazard posed by comets and asteroids of different sizes and orbits. All recent studies agree that the larger impacts pose the greater danger, and that our primary concern from the perspective of total risk should be on impacts that are large enough to cause global ecological catastrophe. These global catastrophes are also of special interest, since they (alone among natural disasters) have the potential to destroy civilization. Studies of the sensitivity of the Earth's environment suggest that the energy threshold energy for causing a global catastrophe is at about 1 million megatons, corresponding to impactor diameters of 1.5 to 2 km. This information leads naturally to a strategy of concentrating on the larger NEOs, say those 1 km or more in diameter. This is the rationale for the Spaceguard Survey, which must be the highest priority in mitigation efforts. The second question concerns the value of developing standing defensive systems that could deflect or destroy an incoming NEO. In the case of the asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter, no such system is needed, since there will be ample time (at least several decades) between the discovery of the threatening object by Spaceguard and the requirement to take action against it. In the case of objects smaller than 1 km diameter, development of defensive systems is not cost-effective; there are many greater dangers to persons and property that are much more urgent. Only in the case of large long-period comets is there a rationale for standing defense systems. The question is also raised whether the risks inherent in developing and maintaining a defense system might be greater than the impact risks it is intended to guard against. These and related issues are the focus of much current international debate on defense of the planet against NEO impacts. Meanwhile, the most critical issue remains the expansion of the telescopic search for NEOs.

Looking Before We Leap: Recent Results From An Ongoing Quantitative Investigation Of Asteroid And Comet Impact Hazard Mitigation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesko, Catherine; Weaver, R. P.; Korycansky, D. G.; Huebner, W. F.

2010-10-01

The asteroid and comet impact hazard is now part of public consciousness, as demonstrated by movies, Super Bowl commercials, and popular news stories. However, there is a popular misconception that hazard mitigation is a solved problem. Many people think, `we'll just nuke it.’ There are, however, significant scientific questions remaining in the hazard mitigation problem. Before we can say with certainty that an explosive yield Y at height of burst h will produce a momentum change in or dispersion of a potentially hazardous object (PHO), we need to quantify how and where energy is deposited into the rubble pile or conglomerate that may make up the PHO. We then need to understand how shock waves propagate through the system, what causes them to disrupt, and how long gravitationally bound fragments take to recombine. Here we present numerical models of energy deposition from an energy source into various materials that are known PHO constituents, and rigid body dynamics models of the recombination of disrupted objects. In the energy deposition models, we explore the effects of porosity and standoff distance as well as that of composition. In the dynamical models, we explore the effects of fragment size and velocity distributions on the time it takes for gravitationally bound fragments to recombine. Initial models indicate that this recombination time is relatively short, as little as 24 hours for a 1 km sized PHO composed of 1000 meter-scale self-gravitating fragments with an initial velocity field of v/r = 0.001 1/s.

Waves generated by Asteroid impacts and their effects on US shorelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzedine, S. M.; Miller, P. L.; Dearborn, D. S.; Dennison, D. S.; Glascoe, L. G.; Antoun, T.

2013-12-01

On February 15, 2013 an undetected ~17-20-m diameter asteroid entered earth's atmosphere and, due to its large entry speed of 18.6 km/s and its shallow entry angle, the asteroid exploded in an airburst over Chelyabinsk, Russia, generating a bright flash, producing many small fragment meteorites and causing a powerful shock wave which released the equivalent of ~440 kt TNT of energy. About 16 hours after the Chelyabinsk asteroid, the elongated ~20m by ~40m (~30 m diameter) NEA 2012 DA14 with an estimated mass of 40 kt neared the earth surface at ~28,100km, ~2.2 earth's diameter. These two consecutive events, which were unrelated and had drastically different orbits, generated considerable attention and awareness from the public, confusion among the local residents, and raised the issue of emergency response and preparedness of local, state and government agencies. LLNL and other government agencies have performed numerical simulations of a postulated asteroid impact onto the ocean and generated data to support an emergency preparedness exercise. We illustrate the exercise through the application of several codes from source (asteroid entry) to ocean impact (splash rim) to wave generation, propagation and interaction with the shoreline. Using state-of-the-art high performance computing codes we simulate three impact sites; one site is located off the eat coat by Maryland's shoreline and two other sites on the west coast: the San Francisco bay and the Los Angeles bay shorelines, respectively. Simulations were conducted not only under deterministic conditions but also under conditions of uncertainty. Uncertainty assessment of flood hazards zones and structural integrity of infrastructures will be presented. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, and partially funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at LLNL under tracking code 12-ERD-005.

Detection of large color variation in the potentially hazardous asteroid (297274) 1996 SK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chien-Hsien; Ip, Wing-Huen; Lin, Zhong-Yi; Yoshida, Fumi; Cheng, Yu-Chi

2014-03-01

Low-inclination near-earth asteroid (NEA) (297274) 1996 SK, which is also classified as a potentially hazardous asteroid, has a highly eccentric orbit. It was studied by multi-wavelength photometry within the framework of an NEA color survey at Lulin Observatory. Here, we report the finding of large color variation across the surface of (297274) 1996 SK within one asteroidal rotation period of 4.656 ± 0.122 hours and classify it as an S-type asteroid according to its average colors of B — V = 0.767 ± 0.033, V — R = 0.482 ± 0.021, V — I = 0.801 ± 0.025 and the corresponding relative reflectance spectrum. These results might be indicative of differential space weathering or compositional inhomogeneity in the surface materials.

Seismic efficiency of meteor airbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svetsov, V. V.; Artemieva, N. A.; Shuvalov, V. V.

2017-08-01

We present the results of numerical simulation for impacts of relatively small asteroids and ice bodies of 30-100 m in size, decelerated in the atmosphere and exploding before they reach the surface, but still producing seismic effects due to the impact wave reaching the surface. The calculated magnitudes fall within the range of 4 to 6, and average seismic efficiency of these events is 2.5 × 10-5. The results obtained allow the seismic hazard from impacts of cosmic bodies to be estimated.

Near-Earth Objects. Chapter 27

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Alan W.; Drube, Line; McFadden, Lucy A.; Binzel, Richard P.

2014-01-01

A near-Earth object (NEO) is an asteroid or comet orbiting the Sun with a perihelion distance of less than 1.3 Astronomical Units (AU) (1 AU, an astronomical unit, is the mean distance between the Earth and the Sun, around 150 million kilometers). If the orbit of an NEO can bring it to within 0.05 AU of the Earth's orbit, and it is larger than about 120 meters, it is termed a potentially hazardous object (PHO); an object of this size is likely to survive passage through the atmosphere and cause extensive damage on impact. (The acronyms NEA and PHO are used when referring specifically to asteroids.)

Are we producing PHAs? On the target selection for a proposed mitigation demo-mission within the NEO-Shield project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggl, S.; Hestroffer, D.; Thuillot, W.

2013-09-01

The Chelyabinsk event on February 15th, 2013 has shown once again that even small near earth objects (NEOs) can become a real safety concern. Eventhough we believe to have the capabilities to avert larger potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can confirm this claim. The target selection process for such deflection demonstrations is a demanding task, as physical, dynamical and engineering aspects have to be considered in great detail. One of the top priorities of such a demonstration mission is, of course, that a harmless asteroid should not be turned into a potentially hazardous object (PHO). Given the potentially large uncertainties in the asteroid's physical parameters as well as the additional uncertainties introduced during the deflection attempt, an in depth analysis of the impact probabilities over the next century becomes necessary, in order to exclude an augmentation of potential risks. Assuming worst case scenarios regard- ing the orbital, physical and mitigation induced uncertainties, we provide a keyhole and impact risk analysis of a list of potential targets for the mitigation demomission proposed in the framework of the NEO-Shield project.

The Main Asteroid Belt: The Crossroads of the Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Patrick

2015-08-01

Orbiting the Sun between Mars and Jupiter, main belt asteroids are leftover planetary building blocks that never accreted enough material to become planets. They are therefore keys to understanding how the Solar System formed and evolved. They may also provide clues to the origin of life, as similar bodies may have delivered organics and water to the early Earth.Strong associations between asteroids and meteorites emerged thanks to multi-technique observations, modeling, in situ and sample return analyses. Spacecraft images revolutionized our knowledge of these small worlds. Asteroids are stunning in their diversity in terms of physical properties. Their gravity varies by more orders of magnitude than its variation among the terrestrial planets, including the Moon. Each rendezvous with an asteroid thus turned our geological understanding on its head as each asteroid is affected in different ways by a variety of processes such as landslides, faulting, and impact cratering. Composition also varies, from ice-rich to lunar-like to chondritic.Nearly every asteroid we see today, whether of primitive or evolved compositions, is the product of a complex history involving accretion and one or more episodes of catastrophic disruption that sometimes resulted in families of smaller asteroids that have distinct and indicative petrogenic relationships. These families provide the best data to study the impact disruption process at scales far larger than those accessible in laboratory. Tens, perhaps hundreds, of early asteroids grew large enough to thermally differentiate. Their traces are scattered pieces of their metal-rich cores and, more rarely, their mantles and crusts.Asteroids represent stages on the rocky road to planet formation. They have great stories to tell about the formation and evolution of our Solar System as well as other planetary systems: asteroid belts seem common around Sun-like stars. We will review our current knowledge on their properties, their link to other populations in the different parts of the Solar System, and the space missions devoted to these tracers of our origins, which, for a small fraction, are also potentially hazardous.

Short term impact risk assessment for asteroids 2011 AG5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bancelin, D.; Pravec, P.; Nolan, M.

2013-04-01

Among the potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) in orbit around the Earth, some of them can become a real threat. The most famous PHA presently known is asteroid (99942) Apophis which briefly presented an unusually high impact probability (up to 2.3 %) for a collision with the Earth in 2029. It remains the only asteroid to have reached level 4 of the Torino Scale. Even if Apophis is not a threat anymore, other PHAs are still monitored and now, only one asteroid is scaled to 1 with the highest impact probability. Asteroid 2011 AG5 has 1 chance over 500 to hit the Earth on 2040. This asteroid is challenging because it will remain of faint magnitude around 23.0 until its close encounter with the Earth in February 2023. It will come close to the Earth by 0.012 AU. Intensive ground-based (optical and mainly radar measurements) will be performed. Before this date, optical measurements would be possible (provided that large telescopes are used) and orbital refinement could be performed in order to improve the orbital uncertainty of this asteroid. Nevertheless, no physical data can be derived before 2023 and therefore, the influence of non gravitational forces, mainly Yarkovsky effect, can not be precisely determined. This non gravitational effect produces a secular drift da/dt (positive or negative) of the semi-major axis due to the anisotropic re-emission of the incident solar radiation. We propose here a dynamical study of the asteroid 2011 AG5. We discuss first the location of primary and secondary keyholes in the target plane of 2023 as well as the quantification of the impact probability. Secondary keyholes are due to two consecutive close encounters, the second usually happening near a keyhole or a resonant return. Then, we will address how those quantities evolve with future dedicated ground-based measurements. In a second part, we will discuss non gravitational perturbations through Yarkovsky effect. Assuming that this asteroid is a C or S-type, we can statistically derive some maximum intensity of Yarkovsky force, without any assumptions on the physical parameters. This will help to assess the maximum deviation expected on the geocentric distance expressed in the 2023 target plane. This deviation will have a direct consequence on the impact probability. Finally, a deeper study will include a Monte Carlo test on the orbital fit in order to compute virtual asteroids (VA) moving under gravity, relativistic and Yarkovsky perturbations. Using a simple model of Yarkovsky force as a perturbation along the transverse component and inversely proportional to the heliocentric square distance of the asteroid, we include a random deviation da/dt to assess the number of VA becoming virtual impactors (VI). We will compare this number to the one obtained with VA moving only under gravity and relativistic perturbations.

Flying Through Dust From Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2016-11-01

How can we tell what an asteroid is made of? Until now, weve relied on remote spectral observations, though NASAs recently launched OSIRIS-REx mission may soon change this by landing on an asteroid and returning with a sample.But what if we could learn more about the asteroids near Earth without needing to land on each one? It turns out that we can by flying through their dust.The aerogel dust collector of the Stardust mission. [NASA/JPL/Caltech]Ejected CluesWhen an airless body is impacted by the meteoroids prevalent throughout our solar system, ejecta from the body are flung into the space around it. In the case of small objects like asteroids, their gravitational pull is so weak that most of the ejected material escapes, forming a surrounding cloud of dust.By flying a spacecraft through this cloud, we could perform chemical analysis of the dust, thereby determining the asteroids composition. We could even capture some of the dust during a flyby (for example, by using an aerogel collector like in the Stardust mission) and bring it back home to analyze.So whats the best place to fly a dust-analyzing or -collecting spacecraft? To answer this, we need to know what the typical distribution of dust is around a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) a problem that scientists Jamey Szalay (Southwest Research Institute) and Mihly Hornyi (University of Colorado Boulder) address in a recent study.The colors show the density distribution for dust grains larger than 0.3 m around a body with a 10-km radius. The distribution is asymmetric, with higher densities on the apex side, shown here in the +y direction. [Szalay Hornyi 2016]Moon as a LaboratoryTo determine typical dust distributions around NEAs, Szalay and Hornyi first look at the distribution of dust around our own Moon, caused by the same barrage of meteorites wed expect to impact NEAs. The Moons dust cloud was measured in situ in 2013 and 2014 by the Lunar Dust Experiment (LDEX) on board the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer mission.From LDEXs measurements of the dust distribution around the Moon, Szalay and Hornyi next calculate how this distribution would change for different grain sizes if the body were instead much smaller i.e., a 10-km asteroid instead of the 1700-km Moon.Optimizing the Geometry for an EncounterThe authors find that the dust ejected from asteroids is distributed in an asymmetric shape around the body, with higher dust densities on the side of the asteroid facing its direction of travel. This is because meteoroid impacts arent isotropic: meteoroid showers tend to be directional, and amajority of meteoroids impact the asteroid from this apex side.Total number of impacts per square meter and predicted dust density for a family of potential trajectories for spacecraft flybys of a 10-km asteroid. [Szalay Hornyi 2016]Szalay and Hornyi therefore conclude that dust-analyzing missions would collect many times more dust impacts by transiting the apex side of the body. The authors evaluate a family of trajectories for a transiting spacecraft to determine the density of dust that the spacecraft will encounter and the impact rates expected from the dust particles.This information can help optimize the encounter geometry of a future mission to maximize the science return while minimizing the hazard due to dust impacts.CitationJamey R. Szalay and Mihly Hornyi 2016 ApJL 830 L29. doi:10.3847/2041-8205/830/2/L29

Scout: orbit analysis and hazard assessment for NEOCP objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnocchia, Davide; Chesley, Steven R.; Chamberlin, Alan B.

2016-10-01

It typically takes a few days for a newly discovered asteroid to be officially recognized as a real object. During this time, the tentative discovery is published on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) until additional observations confirm that the object is a real asteroid rather than an observational artifact or an artificial object. Also, NEOCP objects could have a limited observability window and yet be scientifically interesting, e.g., radar and lightcurve targets, mini-moons (temporary Earth captures), mission accessible targets, close approachers or even impactors. For instance, the only two asteroids discovered before an impact, 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA, both reached the Earth less than a day after discovery. For these reasons we developed Scout, an automated system that provides an orbital and hazard assessment for NEOCP objects within minutes after the observations are available. Scout's rapid analysis increases the chances of securing the trajectory of interesting NEOCP objects before the ephemeris uncertainty grows too large or the observing geometry becomes unfavorable. The generally short observation arcs, perhaps only a few hours or even less, lead severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process. To overcome these degeneracies Scout relies on systematic ranging, a technique that derives possible orbits by scanning a grid in the poorly constrained space of topocentric range and range rate, while the plane-of-sky position and motion are directly tied to the recorded observations. This scan allows us to derive a distribution of the possible orbits and in turn identify the NEOCP objects of most interest to prioritize followup efforts. In particular, Scout ranks objects according to the likelihood of an impact, estimates the close approach distance, the Earth-relative minimum orbit intersection distance and v-infinity, and computes scores to identify objects more likely to be an NEO, a km-sized NEO, a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid, and those on a geocentric orbit. Moreover, Scout provides an ephemeris service that makes use of the statistical information to support observers in their followup efforts.

OrbitMaster: An Online Tool for Investigating Solar System Dynamics and Visualizing Orbital Uncertainties in the Undergraduate Classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puckett, Andrew W.; Rector, Travis A.; Baalke, Ron; Ajiki, Osamu

2016-01-01

OrbitMaster is a 3-D orbit visualization tool designed for the undergraduate astronomy classroom. It has been adapted from AstroArts' interactive OrbitViewer applet under the GNU General Public License, as part of the Research-Based Science Education for Undergraduates (RBSEU) curriculum. New features allow the user to alter an asteroid's orbital parameters using slider controls, and to monitor its changing position and speed relative to both Sun and Earth. It detects close approaches and collisions with Earth, and calculates revised distances and impact speeds due to Earth's gravitational attraction. It can also display many asteroid orbits at once, with direct application to visualizing the uncertainty in a single asteroid's orbital parameters. When paired with Project Pluto's Find_Orb orbit determination software and a source of asteroid astrometry, this enables monitoring of changes in orbital uncertainties with time and/or additional observational data. See http://facstaff.columbusstate.edu/puckett_andrew/orbitmaster.html.A series of undergraduate labs using the OrbitMaster applet are available as part of the RBSEU curriculum. In the first lab, students gain hands-on experience with the mechanics of asteroid orbits and confirm Kepler's laws of planetary motion. In the second, they study the orbits of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids as they build their own "Killer Asteroids" and investigate the minimum and maximum speed limits that apply to Earth-impacting objects. In the third and fourth labs, they discover the kinetic energy-crater size relationship, engage in their own Crater Scene Investigation (C.S.I.) to estimate impactor size, and understand the regional consequences of impacts. These labs may be used separately, or in support of a further seven-week sequence culminating in an authentic research project in which students submit measurements to the Minor Planet Center to refine a real asteroid's orbit. As with all RBSE projects, the overarching goal is for students to learn science by actually doing science, and to retain knowledge learned in-context. For more information, see http://rbseu.uaa.alaska.edu.

Asteroid Origins Satellite (AOSAT) I: An On-orbit Centrifuge Science Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lightholder, Jack; Thoesen, Andrew; Adamson, Eric; Jakubowski, Jeremy; Nallapu, Ravi; Smallwood, Sarah; Raura, Laksh; Klesh, Andrew; Asphaug, Erik; Thangavelautham, Jekan

2017-04-01

Exploration of asteroids, comets and small moons (small bodies) can answer fundamental questions relating to the formation of the solar system, the availability of resources, and the nature of impact hazards. Near-earth asteroids and the small moons of Mars are potential targets of human exploration. But as illustrated by recent missions, small body surface exploration remains challenging, expensive, and fraught with risk. Despite their small size, they are among the most extreme planetary environments, with low and irregular gravity, loosely bound regolith, extreme temperature variation, and the presence of electrically charged dust. Here we describe the Asteroid Origins Satellite (AOSAT-I), an on-orbit, 3U CubeSat centrifuge using a sandwich-sized bed of crushed meteorite fragments to replicate asteroid surface conditions. Demonstration of this CubeSat will provide a low-cost pathway to physical asteroid model validation, shed light on the origin and geophysics of asteroids, and constrain the design of future landers, rovers, resource extractors, and human missions. AOSAT-I will conduct scientific experiments within its payload chamber while operating in two distinct modes: (1) as a nonrotating microgravity laboratory to investigate primary accretion, and (2) as a rotating centrifuge producing artificial milligravity to simulate surface conditions on asteroids, comets and small moons. AOSAT-I takes advantage of low-cost, off-the-shelf components, modular design, and the rapid assembly and instrumentation of the CubeSat standard, to answer fundamental questions in planetary science and reduce cost and risk of future exploration.

An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Barbee, Brent W.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (< 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results. Detailed technical descriptions of the study results are provided in a separate final technical report, which can be downloaded from the ADRC website (www.adrc.iastate.edu).

Hydrocode Models of Mitigation of a 170-Meter-Diameter Asteroid Using Energetic Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesko, C. S.; Gisler, G. R.; Heberling, T.; Nouanesengsy, B.; Patchett, J.; Sagert, I.; Tarnowsky, T. J.; Weaver, R.

2017-12-01

Binary asteroid 65803 Didymos is the target of the proposed NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission. The smaller member of the binary pair, S/2003 (65803) Didymos B, is approximately 170 meters in diameter. Didymos A is spectrally similar to H-LL ordinary chondrites and asteroids Eros and Itokawa, so we assume Didymos B is similar. We also assume it to be a rubble pile aggregate of material from Didymos A, and take further guidance on material properties from the AIM Didymos Reference Model V. 10 (P. Michel et al., 2015). We are modeling deflection attempts by kinetic impactor and nuclear stand-off burst against a hypothetical solo Didymos B asteroid as part of the NASA-NNSA inter-agency collaboration on impact hazard mitigation. The collaboration agreed on model initial conditions at our February 2017 Technical Interchange Meeting. The kinetic impactor is a 63.5 cm-diameter aluminum impactor striking at 10 km/s. We model the stand-off nuclear burst according to procedures described in Barbee et al. (Acta A. 2017) and Dearborn et al. (in press). We will present our model predictions and their implications for planetary defense mission design space.

Virtual Impactors: Search and Destroy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Andrea; Chesley, Steven R.; Boattini, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.

2000-05-01

If for an asteroid which has been observed only over a short arc and then lost there are orbits compatible with the observations resulting in collisions, recovery would be desirable to decide if it will actually impact. If recovery is essentially impractical, as is the case for many small asteroids in the 100- to 500-m-diameter range, the next best thing is to make sure that the lost asteroid is not on a collision course. We propose a method for achieving this guarantee, with an observational effort far smaller than the one required for recovery. The procedure involves the computation of an orbit that is compatible with the available observations and, by hypothesis, results in an impact at some later encounter; this we call a virtual impactor (VI). The collision at some future time is a strong constraint; thus the VI has a well determined orbit. We show that it is possible to compute for each given time of observation the skyprint of the VI, that is the set of astrometric positions compatible with an impact (or a near impact). The skyprint needs to be scanned by powerful enough telescopes to perform a negative observation; once this has been done for the skyprints of all VIs, collisions can be excluded even without recovery. We propose to apply this procedure to the case of the lost asteroid 1998 OX 4, for which we have found orbital solutions with impacts in the years 2014, 2038, 2044, and 2046. Suitable observing windows are found when the VI would be close to the Earth in 2001 and in 2003, and the corresponding skyprints are small enough to be covered with very few frames. This procedure might become more and more necessary in the future, as the number of discoveries of small potentially hazardous asteroids increases; we discuss the general principles and the validation procedures that should apply to such a VI removal campaign.

TC4 Observing Campaign: An Operational Test of NASA Planetary Defense Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, V.; Kelley, M. S.; Landis, R. R.

Impacts due to near-Earth objects ( 90% near-Earth asteroids, or NEAs, and 10% comets) are one of the natural hazards that can pose a great risk to life on Earth, but one that can potentially be mitigated, if the threat is detected with sufficient lead-time. While the probability of such an event is low, the outcome is so catastrophic that we are well justified in investing a modest effort to minimize this threat. Historically, asteroid impacts have altered the course of evolution on the Earth. In 2013 the Chelyabinsk meteor over Russia, which injured over 1600 people and caused $30M in damages, reinforced the importance of detecting and characterizing small NEAs that pose a greater threat than most large NEAs discovered so far. The NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) was established to ensure the early detection, tracking and characterization of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) and is the lead office for providing timely and accurate communications and coordination of U.S. Government planning for response to an actual impact threat. In an effort to test the operational readiness of all entities critical to planetary defense, the NASA PDCO is supporting a community-led exercise. The target of this exercise is 2012 TC4, a 20- meter diameter asteroid that is currently expected to pass by the Earth over Antarctica on Oct. 12, 2017 at a distance of only 2.3 Earth radii. The goal of the TC4 Observing Campaign is to recover, track, and characterize 2012 TC4 as a potential impactor in order to exercise the entire Planetary Defense system from observations, modeling, prediction, and communication. The paper will present an overview of the campaign and summarize early results from the exercise.

Chelyabinsk meteorite explains unusual spectral properties of Baptistina Asteroid Family

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, Vishnu; Sanchez, Juan A.; Bottke, William F.; Cloutis, Edward A.; Izawa, Matthew R. M.; O'Brien, David P.; Mann, Paul; Cuddy, Matthew; Le Corre, Lucille; Gaffey, Michael J.; Fujihara, Gary

2014-07-01

We investigated the spectral and compositional properties of Chelyabinsk meteorite to identify its possible parent body in the main asteroid belt. Our analysis shows that the meteorite contains two spectrally distinct but compositionally indistinguishable components of LL5 chondrite and shock blackened/impact melt material. Our X-ray diffraction analysis confirms that the two lithologies of the Chelyabinsk meteorite are extremely similar in modal mineralogy. The meteorite is compositionally similar to LL chondrite and its most probable parent asteroid in the main belt is a member of the Flora family. Our work confirms previous studies (e.g., Vernazza et al. [2008]. Nature 454, 858-860; de León, J., Licandro, J., Serra-Ricart, M., Pinilla-Alonso, N., Campins, H. [2010]. Astron. Astrophys. 517, A23; Dunn, T.L., Burbine, T.H., Bottke, W.F., Clark, J.P. [2013]. Icarus 222, 273-282), linking LL chondrites to the Flora family. Intimate mixture of LL5 chondrite and shock blackened/impact melt material from Chelyabinsk provides a spectral match with (8) Flora, the largest asteroid in the Flora family. The Baptistina family and Flora family overlap each other in dynamical space. Mineralogical analysis of (298) Baptistina and 11 small family members shows that their surface compositions are similar to LL chondrites, although their absorption bands are subdued and albedos lower when compared to typical S-type asteroids. A range of intimate mixtures of LL5 chondrite and shock blackened/impact melt material from Chelyabinsk provides spectral matches for all these BAF members. We suggest that the presence of a significant shock/impact melt component in the surface regolith of BAF members could be the cause of lower albedo and subdued absorption bands. The conceptual problem with part of this scenario is that impact melts are very rare within ordinary chondrites. Of the ∼42,000 ordinary chondrites, less than 0.5% (203) of them contain impact melts. A major reason that impact melts are rare in meteorites is that high impact velocities (V > 10 km/s) are needed to generate the necessary shock pressures and temperatures (e.g., Pierazzo, E., Melosh, H.J. [1998]. Hydrocode modeling of oblique impacts: The fate of the projectile. In: Origin of the Earth and Moon, Proceedings of the Conference. LPI Contribution No. 957) unless the target material is highly porous. Nearly all asteroid impacts within the main belt are at ∼5 km/s (Bottke, W.F., Nolan, M.C., Greenberg, R., Kolvoord, R.A. [1994]. Collisional lifetimes and impact statistics of near-Earth asteroids. In: Tucson, Gehrels T. (Ed.), Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids. The University of Arizona Press, Arizona, pp. 337-357), which prevents them from producing much impact melt unless they are highly porous. However, shock darkening is an equally efficient process that takes place at much lower impact velocities (∼2 km/s) and can cause the observed spectral effects. Spectral effects of shock darkening and impact melt are identical. The parent asteroid of BAF was either a member of the Flora family or had the same basic composition as the Floras (LL Chondrite). The shock pressures produced during the impact event generated enough impact melt or shock blackening to alter the spectral properties of BAF, but keep the BAF composition largely unchanged. Collisional mixing of shock blackened/impact melt and LL5 chondritic material could have created the Baptistina Asteroid Family with composition identical to those of the Floras, but with subdued absorption bands. Shock darkening and impact melt play an important role in altering the spectral and albedo properties of ordinary chondrites and our work confirms earlier work by Britt and Pieters (Britt, D.T., Pieters, C.M. [1994]. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 58, 3905-3919).

Elements of planetary protection against asteroid and comet hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steklov, A. F.; Vidmachenko, A. P.; Dashkiev, G. N.; Zhilyaev, B. E.

2018-05-01

The principles of protection against asteroid-comet hazard should constitute the main priority of the modern Proto-cosmic civilization on the planet Earth. Any impact of a fairly large asteroid or cometary nucleus with a size of 1 to 20 or more kilometers will lead to a global catastrophe and, perhaps, to the death of Mankind. Forces in order to withstand such a blow of the cosmic body during large space invasions, we do not have and, most likely, will not be for a long time . We need as soon as possible to create technical facilities and systems for long-term comfortable living of large colonies of people on the Moon, Mars, Venus and Mercury, having arranged there some elements of the biosphere. In these colonies people should live in extraterrestrial space settlements, and should periodically and constantly "outplay" scenarios of reliable and guaranteed re-population of the planet Earth by people. Such periodic "exercises" on the actual modeling of the return to the "post-catastrophic" Earth should ensure the survival of humanity even in the worst versions of the consequences of possible dangerous space invasions. That is, we should always be ready for the repopulation on the Earth by people and for the reconstruction of the basic elements of the man's biosphere.

(abstract) Scientific Objectivity and the Impact Hazard: Responsible Reporting Versus Crying Wolf

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weissman, Paul R.

1993-01-01

f comets and asteroids on the Earth pose a real hazard, comparable in probability to other hazards which society deems worthy of concern. As such, it is prudent and reasonable to investigate and institute means for evaluation of the exact nature of the hazard and possible means of mitigating the effects of impacts, primarily by preventing their occurrence through orbital deflection. Decisions as to the hazard and possible detection and deflection programs must be made through a rational public discussion of the issues, provided with the best possible information. Unfortunately, some individuals have tended to overstate the problem either in terms of the probability of impact or the expected effects of impacts. The net result of such actions is often to undermine public confidence in those attempting to promote an informal discussion of the impact hazard. This is particularily true in a time of declining budgets for both science and defense, and increased competition for federal R&D dollars. It is thus important that the community find means of promoting responsible actions by the members of the community, and for dealing with public release of information, within the bounds of academic and individual freedom. The purpose of this abstract is to promote a discussion of these issues within the community and to invite additional suggestions for methods to improve the providing of accurate information to the public, the media, and most importantly, to decision makers.

The Nature of Airbursts and their Contribution to the Impact Hazard (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M. B.

2009-12-01

Ongoing simulations of low-altitude airbursts from hypervelocity asteroid impacts have led to a re-evaluation of the impact hazard that accounts for the enhanced damage potential relative to the standard point-source approximations. Computational models demonstrate that the altitude of maximum energy deposition is not a good estimate of the equivalent height of a point explosion, because the center of mass of an exploding projectile maintains a significant fraction of its initial momentum and is transported downward in the form of a high-temperature jet of expanding gas. This “fireball” descends to a depth well beneath the burst altitude before its velocity becomes subsonic. The time scale of this descent is similar to the time scale of the explosion itself, so the jet simultaneously couples both its translational and its radial kinetic energy to the atmosphere. Because of this downward flow, larger blast waves and stronger thermal radiation pulses are experienced at the surface than would be predicted for a nuclear explosion of the same yield at the same burst height. For impacts with a kinetic energy below some threshold value, the hot jet of vaporized projectile loses its momentum before it can make contact with the Earth's surface. The 1908 Tunguska explosion is the largest observed example of this first type of airburst. For impacts above the threshold, the fireball descends all the way to the ground, where it expands radially, driving supersonic winds and radiating thermal energy at temperatures that can melt silicate surface materials. The Libyan Desert Glass event, 29 million years ago, may be an example of this second, larger, and more destructive type of airburst. The kinetic energy threshold that demarcates these two airburst types depends on asteroid velocity, density, strength, and impact angle. There is no evidence that the Tunguska fireball descended all the way to the surface, suggesting that its yield was about 5 megatons or lower. Better understanding of airbursts, combined with the diminishing number of undiscovered large asteroids, leads to the conclusion that airbursts represent a large and growing fraction of the total impact threat. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corp, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the US DOE under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. At altitude of maximum energy deposition (9 km) for a 15-megaton stony asteroid, its mass continues to descend at 9 km/s (60% of initial velocity).

The Impact Hazard in the Context of Other Natural Hazards and Predictive Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. R.

1998-09-01

The hazard due to impact of asteroids and comets has been recognized as analogous, in some ways, to other infrequent but consequential natural hazards (e.g. floods and earthquakes). Yet, until recently, astronomers and space agencies have felt no need to do what their colleagues and analogous agencies must do in order the assess, quantify, and communicate predictions to those with a practical interest in the predictions (e.g. public officials who must assess the threats, prepare for mitigation, etc.). Recent heightened public interest in the impact hazard, combined with increasing numbers of "near misses" (certain to increase as Spaceguard is implemented) requires that astronomers accept the responsibility to place their predictions and assessments in terms that may be appropriately considered. I will report on preliminary results of a multi-year GSA/NCAR study of "Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making" in which I have represented the impact hazard, while others have treated earthquakes, floods, weather, global climate change, nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, etc. The impact hazard presents an end-member example of a natural hazard, helping those dealing with more prosaic issues to learn from an extreme. On the other hand, I bring to the astronomical community some lessons long adopted in other cases: the need to understand the policy purposes of impact predictions, the need to assess potential societal impacts, the requirements to very carefully assess prediction uncertainties, considerations of potential public uses of the predictions, awareness of ethical considerations (e.g. conflicts of interest) that affect predictions and acceptance of predictions, awareness of appropriate means for publicly communicating predictions, and considerations of the international context (especially for a hazard that knows no national boundaries).

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, J. O.; Chodas, P. W.; Ulamec, S.; Mathias, D. L.; Burkhard, C. D.

2017-01-01

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, James O.; Chodas, Paul W.; Ulamec, Stephan; Mathias, Donovan L.; Burkhard, Craig D.

2017-01-01

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, and/or cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions for Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused by Natural Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, James O.; Chodas, Paul W.; Ulamec, Stephan; Mathias, Donovan L.; Burkhard, Craig D.

2017-01-01

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions about potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size range of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) what is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its structure and heterogeneity from the surface and throughout its interior? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as inputs for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) the devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact on land based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) how information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) how information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature to provide input for a new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in the creation of an appraisal of the threat from 2017 PDC with the least uncertainty possible, herein called the best-case.

Dynamics of ejecta from the binary asteroid Didymos, the target of the AIDA mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Patrick; Yu, Yang; Schwartz, Stephen; Naidu, Shantanu; Benner, Lance

2016-04-01

The AIDA space mission, a collaborative effort between ESA and NASA, aims to characterize the near-Earth asteroid binary (65803) Didymos and to perform a kinetic impactor demonstration on the small moon of the binary system. Our study presents a multi-scale dynamical model of the ejecta cloud produced by a hypervelocity impact, which enables us to compute the ejecta properties at different spatial and time scales. This model is applied to the impact into the small moon of Didymos on October 2022 as considered by the AIDA mission. We model the process by including as much practical information as possible, e.g., the gravitational environment influenced by the non-spherical shapes of the bodies (based on the observed shape of the primary), the solar tides, and the solar radiation pressure. Our simulations show where and for how long the ejecta cloud evolves with time for the considered ejecta initial conditions. This information is used to assess the potential hazard to the ESA Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) observing spacecraft and to determine the safest positions. This study is performed with support of the European Space Agency and in the framework of the NEOShield-2 project that has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 640351.

Asteroid Deflection: How, Where and When?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fargion, D.

2008-10-01

To deflect impact-trajectory of massive and spinning km^3 asteroid by a few terrestrial radiuses one need a large momentum exchange. The dragging of huge spinning bodies in space by external engine seems difficult or impossible. Our solution is based on the landing of multi screw-rockets, powered by mini-nuclear engines, on the body, that dig a small fraction of the soil surface to use as an exhaust propeller, ejecting it vertically in phase among themselves. Such a mass ejection increases the momentum exchange, their number redundancy guarantees the stability of the system. The slow landing (below ≃ 40 cm s^{-1}) of each engine-unity at those very low gravity field, may be achieved by safe rolling and bouncing along the surface. The engine array tuned activity, overcomes the asteroid angular velocity. Coherent turning of the jet heads increases the deflection efficiency. A procession along its surface may compensate at best the asteroid spin. A small skin-mass (about 2×10^4 tons) may be ejected by mini-nuclear engines. Such prototypes may also build first safe galleries for humans on the Moon. Conclusive deflecting tests might be performed on remote asteroids. The incoming asteroid 99942 Apophis (just 2% of km^3) may be deflected safely a few Earth radiuses. Its encounter maybe not just a hazard but an opportunity, learning how to land, to dig, to build and also to nest safe human station inside. Asteroids amplified deflections by gravity swing may be driven into longest planetary journeys, beginning i.e. with the preliminary landing of future missions on Mars' moon-asteroid Phobos or Deimos.

BAOBAB (Big And Outrageously Bold Asteroid Belt) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcfadden, L. A.; Thomas, C. A; Englander, J. A.; Ruesch, O.; Hosseini, S.; Goossens, S. J.; Mazarico, E. M.; Schmerr, N.

2017-01-01

One of the intriguing results of NASA's Dawn mission is the composition and structure of the Main Asteroid Belt's only known dwarf planet, Ceres [1]. It has a top layer of dehydrated clays and salts [2] and an icy-rocky mantle [3,4]. It is widely known that the asteroid belt failed to accrete as a planet by resonances between the Sun and Jupiter. About 20-30 asteroids >100 km diameter are probably differentiated protoplanets [5]. 1) how many more and which ones are fragments of protoplanets? 2) How many and which ones are primordial rubble piles left over from condensation of the solar nebula? 3) How would we go about gaining better and more complete characterization of the mass, interior structure and composition of the Main Belt asteroid population? 4) What is the relationship between asteroids and ocean worlds? Bulk parameters such as the mass, density, and porosity, are important to characterize the structure of any celestial body, and for asteroids in particular, they can shed light on the conditions in the early solar system. Asteroid density estimates exist but currently they are often based on assumed properties of taxonomic classes, or through astronomical survey data where interactions with asteroids are weak at best resulting in large measurement uncertainty. We only have direct density estimates from spacecraft encounters for a few asteroids at this time. Knowledge of the asteroids is significant not only to understand their role in solar system workings, but also to assess their potential as space resources, as impact hazards on Earth, or even as harboring life forms. And for the distant future, we want to know if the idea put forth in a contest sponsored by Physics Today, to surface the asteroids into highly reflecting, polished surfaces and use them as a massively segmented mirror for astrophysical exploration [6], is feasible.

Dynamics of ejecta from a binary asteroid impact in the framework of the AIDA mission: a NEOShield-2 contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Schwartz, S. R.; Michel, P.; Benner, L. A. M.

2015-10-01

The dynamics of the ejecta cloud that results from a binary asteroid impact is one of the tasks of the NEOShield-2 project, funded by the European Commission in its program Horizon 2020. Results from such an investigation will have great relevance to the Phase-A study of the AIDA space mission, a collaborative effort between ESA and NASA, which aims to perform a kinetic impactor demonstration. Our study presents a multi-scale dynamical model of the ejecta cloud produced by a hypervelocity impact, which enables us to check the behaviors of the ejecta at different spatial and time scales. This model is applied to the impact into the small moon of the binary Near- Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos on October 2022 as considered by the AIDA mission. We attempt to model the process by including as much practical information as possible, e.g., the gravitational environment influenced by the non-spherical shapes of the bodies based on observed shape of the primary), the solar tides, and the solar radiation pressure. Our simulations show the general patterns of motion of the ejecta cloud, which we use to assess the potential hazard to an observing spacecraft. We also look into the grain-scale dynamics of the ejecta during this process, which has influence on the re-accumulation of particles orbiting in the vicinity.

Risk to civilization: A planetary science perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

1988-01-01

One of the most profound changes in our perspective of the solar system resulting from the first quarter century of planetary exploration by spacecraft is the recognition that planets, including Earth, were bombarded by cosmic projectiles for 4.5 aeons and continue to be bombarded today. Although the planetary cratering rate is much lower now than it was during the first 0.5 aeons, sizeable Earth-approaching asteroids and comets continue to hit the Earth at a rate that poses a finite risk to civilization. The evolution of this planetary perspective on impact cratering is gradual over the last two decades. It took explorations of Mars and Mercury by early Mariner spacecraft and of the outer solar system by the Voyagers to reveal the significance of asteroidal and cometary impacts in shaping the morphologies and even chemical compositions of the planets. An unsettling implication of the new perspective is addressed: the risk to human civilization. Serious scientific attention was given to this issue in July 1981 at a NASA-sponsored Spacewatch Workshop in Snowmass, Colorado. The basic conclusion of the 1981 NASA sponsored workshop still stands: the risk that civilization might be destroyed by impact with an as-yet-undiscovered asteroid or comet exceeds risk levels that are sometimes deemed unacceptable by modern societies in other contexts. Yet these impact risks have gone almost undiscussed and undebated. The tentative quantitative assessment by some members of the 1981 workshop was that each year, civilization is threatened with destruction with a probability of about 1 in 100,000. The enormous spread in risk levels deemed by the public to be at the threshold of acceptability derives from a host of psychological factors that were widely discussed in the risk assessment literature. Slovic shows that public fears of hazards are greatest for hazards that are uncontrollable, involuntary, fatal, dreadful, globally catastrophic, and which have consequences that seem inequitable, especially if they affect future generations.

Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories Code-to-Code Comparison of Inter Lab Test Problem 1 for Asteroid Impact Hazard Mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weaver, Robert P.; Miller, Paul; Howley, Kirsten

The NNSA Laboratories have entered into an interagency collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to explore strategies for prevention of Earth impacts by asteroids. Assessment of such strategies relies upon use of sophisticated multi-physics simulation codes. This document describes the task of verifying and cross-validating, between Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), modeling capabilities and methods to be employed as part of the NNSA-NASA collaboration. The approach has been to develop a set of test problems and then to compare and contrast results obtained by use of a suite of codes, includingmore » MCNP, RAGE, Mercury, Ares, and Spheral. This document provides a short description of the codes, an overview of the idealized test problems, and discussion of the results for deflection by kinetic impactors and stand-off nuclear explosions.« less

Brazilian Participations in the International Astronomical Search Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, G. A.; Dalla-Costa, L. J.; Kalmus, A. T.; Kroth, E. C.; Matos, M. F.; Silva, A. L.; Silva, G. G.

2014-10-01

International Astronomical Search Collaboration (IASC) is an international educational project between universities, schools, observatories and research institutions. Its main objective is to enroll high school and college students in the monitoring and discovery of asteroids and Near Earth Objects (NEOs), especially Potentially Hazardous Asteroids. The methodology consists in the analysis of astronomical images obtained in several observatories in North America and Hawaii. The images are distributed throughout the school network and the results must be delivered in a 72-hour timeframe. Since 2010 Brazilian universities and schools have joined IASC, resulting in over a dozen new asteroids found (3 of them NEOs), and hundreds of measurements for already known asteroids. A major event in this collaboration was the All-Brazil Asteroid Search Campaign, which was conducted in September 2012. 2013 marks the fourth year of Brazilian participations in IASC, with one important milestone: the third straight appearance of a Brazilian institution in the Pan-STARRS campaign, which uses the PS1 telescope in Haleakala, Hawaii. We will present a summary of the overall results, as well as the latest news from 2013 campaigns. We will discuss the impact promoted by the past events, such as how the interest in astronomy changed before and after the campaigns, and it has helped the students to choose their future careers.

Planetary Perspective on Life on Early Mars and the Early Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleep, Norman H.; Zahnle, Kevin

1996-01-01

Impacts of asteroids and comets posed a major hazard to the continuous existence of early life on Mars as on the Earth. The chief danger was presented by globally distributed ejecta, which for very large impacts takes the form of transient thick rock vapor atmospheres; both planets suffered such impacts repeatedly. The exposed surface on both planets was sterilized when it was quickly heated to the temperature of condensed rock vapor by radiation and rock rain. Shallow water bodies were quickly evaporated and sterilized. Any surviving life must have been either in deep water or well below the surface.

The DLR AsteroidFinder for NEOs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottola, Stefano; Kuehrt, Ekkehard; Michaelis, Harald; Hoffmann, Harald; Spietz, Peter; Jansen, Frank; Thimo Grundmann, Jan; Hahn, Gerhard; Montenegro, Sergio; Findlay, Ross; Boerner, Anko; Messina, Gabriele; Behnke, Thomas; Tschentscher, Matthias; Scheibe, Karsten; Mertens, Volker; Heidecke, Ansgar

Potential Earth-impacting asteroids that spend most of their time interior to Earth's orbit are extremely difficult to be observed from the ground and remain largely undetected. Firstly, they are mostly located at small solar elongations, where the sky brightness and their faintness due to the large phase angle prevents their discovery. Secondly, these objects tend to have very long synodic orbital periods, which makes observation opportunities rare and impact warning times short. Because of these limitations, even the advent of next generation ground-based asteroid surveys is not likely to radically improve the situation (Veres et al. Icarus 203, p472, 2009). On the other hand, a small satellite with a suitable design can observe close to the Sun and detect these objects efficiently against a dark sky background. For this reason, DLR, the German Aerospace Center, has selected AsteroidFinder as the first experiment to be launched under its new compact satellite national program. The primary goal of the mission is to detect and characterize Near Earth Objects (NEOs), with a particular focus on the population of objects completely contained within Earth's orbit (IEOs or Inner Earth Objects). Current dynamical models predict the existence of more than 1000 such objects down to a size of 100m, of which, due to the abovementioned observation difficulties, only 10 have been discovered to date. Benefitting from the vantage point of a Low Earth Orbit (LEO), AsteroidFinder makes use of a small optical telescope to scan those regions of the sky that are close to the Sun, and therefore beyond the reach of ground based observatories. By estimating the population, the size and the orbital distribution of IEOs, AsteroidFinder will contribute to our knowledge of the inner Solar System, and to the assessment of the impact hazard for the Earth. A secondary goal of the mission is to demonstrate techniques that enable the space-based detection of space debris in the cm size range. With these mission goals, AsteroidFinder also addresses the programmatic goals of the ESA SSA initiative, both for the NEO and space debris domain. The AsteroidFinder mission is based on the DLR SSB standard platform, it employs a 400-cm2 clear-aperture, off-axis design telescope and an array of new technology CCDs. AsteroidFinder, which is presently in its Phase-B development stage, is planned to launch in 2013 with a one-year nominal mission duration and the possibility of an extension.

Ruling out Virtual Impactors with Negative Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, A.; Chesley, S. R.; Boattini, A.; Valsecchi, G. B.

1999-09-01

If, for an asteroid which has been observed only over a short arc then lost, there are orbits compatible with the observations resulting in collisions, recovery would be desirable to decide if it will actually impact. If recovery is essentially impractical, as is the case for many small asteroids in the 100 m to 500 m diameter range, the next best thing is to make sure that the lost asteroid is not on a collision course. We propose a method to achieve this guarantee, with an observational effort far smaller than the one required for recovery. The procedure involves the computation of an orbit which is compatible with the available observations and, by hypothesis, results in an impact at some later encounter; this we call a Virtual Impactor (VI). The collision at some future time is a strong constraint, thus the VI has a well determined orbit. We show that it is possible to compute for each given time of observation the skyprint of the VI, that is the set of astrometric positions compatible with an impact (or a near impact). The skyprint needs to be scanned by powerful enough telescopes to perform a negative observation; once this has been done for the skyprints of all VIs, collisions can be excluded even without recovery. We propose to apply this procedure to the case of the lost asteroid 1998 OX_4, for which we have found orbital solutions with impacts in the years 2014, 2038, 2044 and 2046. Suitable observing windows are found when the VI would be close to the Earth in 2001 and in 2003, and the corresponding skyprints are small enough to be covered with very few frames. This procedure might become more and more necessary in the future, as the number of discoveries of small potentially hazardous asteroids increases; we discuss the general principles and the validation procedures that should apply to such a VI removal campaign. This research has been funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI), by a NATO fellowship, by Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), by the University of Pisa, and by the Spaceguard Foundation.

On the Contribution of Asteroid Disruptions to the Interplanetary Dust Flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kehoe, T. J. J.; Kehoe, A. E.

2017-12-01

Recent modeling has shown the significant contribution of micron- to millimeter-sized particles released by the disruption of main-belt asteroids (MBAs) to the interplanetary dust particle (IDP) flux (e.g., Dermott et al., 2002; Nesvorný et al., 2003; Espy Kehoe et al., 2015). In this paper, we present the results of a study that indicates that the dust injected into the zodiacal cloud due to the catastrophic disruption of an asteroid is dominated by the release of its surface regolith particles. Our research suggests that disrupting a single asteroid with diameter O(100 km) will be enough to regenerate the entire zodiacal cloud. The breakup of smaller asteroids with diameters O(10 km) will likely produce more moderate, but still significant, changes in the dust environment of the inner solar system. As collisional disruptions of asteroids in this size range occur more frequently, it is important that we develop a better understanding of the injection of asteroidal material into the zodiacal cloud as a result of these type of events in order to determine the temporal evolution of the interplanetary dust flux. The results presented in this paper will lead to a better understanding of the threat to exploration activities due to the enhanced IDP flux resulting from the disruption of asteroidal regoliths. These findings can be employed to improve engineering models, for example, the NASA Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) that is widely utilized to assess the impact hazard to space hardware and activities in the inner solar system due to the natural meteoroid environment (McNamara et al., 2004). This is an important area of concern for current and future mission development purposes.

OSIRIS-REx Asterod Sample Return Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nakamura-Messinger, Keiki; Connolly, Harold C. Jr.; Messenger, Scott; Lauretta, Dante S.

2017-01-01

OSIRIS-REx is NASA's third New Frontiers Program mission, following New Horizons that completed a flyby of Pluto in 2015 and the Juno mission to Jupiter that has just begun science operations. The OSIRIS-REx mission's primary objective is to collect pristine surface samples of a carbonaceous asteroid and return to Earth for analysis. Carbonaceous asteroids and comets are 'primitive' bodies that preserved remnants of the Solar System starting materials and through their study scientists can learn about the origin and the earliest evolution of the Solar System. The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft was successfully launched on September 8, 2016, beginning its seven year journey to asteroid 101955 Bennu. The robotic arm will collect 60-2000 grams of material from the surface of Bennu and will return to Earth in 2023 for worldwide distribution by the Astromaterials Curation Facility at NASA Johnson Space Center. The name OSIRIS-REx embodies the mission objectives (1) Origins: Return and analyze a sample of a carbonaceous asteroid, (2) Spectral Interpretation: Provide ground-truth for remote observation of asteroids, (3) Resource Identification: Determine the mineral and chemical makeup of a near-Earth asteroid (4) Security: Measure the non-gravitational that changes asteroidal orbits and (5) Regolith Explorer: Determine the properties of the material covering an asteroid surface. Asteroid Bennu may preserve remnants of stardust, interstellar materials and the first solids to form in the Solar System and the molecular precursors to the origin of life and the Earth's oceans. Bennu is a potentially hazardous asteroid, with an approximately 1 in 2700 chance of impacting the Earth late in the 22nd century. OSIRIS-REx collects from Bennu will help formulate the types of operations and identify mission activities that astronauts will perform during their expeditions. Such information is crucial in preparing for humanity's next steps beyond low Earthy orbit and on to deep space destinations.

Robotic Reconnaissance Missions to Small Bodies and Their Potential Contributions to Human Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abell, P. A.; Rivkin, A. S.

2015-01-01

Introduction: Robotic reconnaissance missions to small bodies will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near- Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. The science and technical data obtained from robotic precursor missions that investigate the surface and interior physical characteristics of an object will help identify the pertinent physical properties that will maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for both robotic assets and crew operating in close proximity to, or at the surface of, a small body. These data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations. Small Body Strategic Knowledge Gaps: For the past several years NASA has been interested in identifying the key SKGs related to future human destinations. These SKGs highlight the various unknowns and/or data gaps of targets that the science and engineering communities would like to have filled in prior to committing crews to explore the Solar System. An action team from the Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) was formed specifically to identify the small body SKGs under the direction of the Human Exploration and Operations Missions Directorate (HEOMD), given NASA's recent interest in NEAs and the Martian moons as potential human destinations [1]. The action team organized the SKGs into four broad themes: 1) Identify human mission targets; 2) Understand how to work on and interact with the small body surface; 3) Understand the small body environment and its potential risk/benefit to crew, systems, and operational assets; and 4) Understand the small body resource potential. Each of these themes were then further subdivided into categories to address specific SKG issues. Robotic Precursor Contributions to SKGs: Robotic reconnaissance missions should be able to address specific aspects related to SKG themes 1 through 4. Theme 1 deals with the identification of human mission targets within the NEA population. The current guideline indicates that human missions to fastspinning, tumbling, or binary asteroids may be too risky to conduct successfully from an operational perspective. However, no spacecraft mission has been to any of these types of NEAs before. Theme 2 addresses the concerns about interacting on the small body surface under microgravity conditions, and how the surface and/or sub-surface properties affect or restrict the interaction for human exploration. The combination of remote sensing instruments and in situ payloads will provide good insight into the asteroid's surface and subsurface properties. SKG theme 3 deals with the environment in and around the small body that may present a nuisance or hazard to any assets operating in close proximity. Impact and surface experiments will help address issues related to particle size, particle longevity, internal structure, and the near-surface mechanical stability of the asteroid. Understanding or constraining these physical characteristics are important for mission planning. Theme 4 addresses the resource potential of the small body. This is a particularly important aspect of human exploration since the identification and utilization of resources is a key aspect for deep space mission architectures to the Martian system (i.e., Phobos and Deimos). Conclusions: Robotic reconnaissance of small bodies can provide a wealth of information relevant to the science and planetary defense of NEAs. However, such missions to investigate NEAs can also provide key insights into small body strategic knowledge gaps and contribute to the overall success for human exploration missions to asteroids.

Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Plesko, Catherine S; Clement, R Ryan; Weaver, Robert P

2009-01-01

The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of amore » comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.« less

Multi-color lightcurve observation of the asteroid (163249) 2002 GT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oshima, M.; Abe, S.

2014-07-01

NASA's Deep Impact/EPOXI spacecraft plans to encounter the asteroid (163249) 2002 GT, classified as a PHA (Potentially Hazardous Asteroid), on January 4, 2020. However, the taxonomic type and spin state of 2002 GT remain to be determined. We have carried out ground-based multi-color (B-V-R-I) lightcurve observations taking advantage of the 2002 GT Characterization Campaign by NASA. Multi-color lightcurve measurements allow us to estimate the rotation period and obtain strong constraints on the shape and pole orientation. Here we found that the rotation period of 2002 GT is estimated to be 3.7248 ± 0.1664 h. In mid-2013, 2002 GT passed at 0.015 au from the Earth, resulting an exceptional opportunity for ground-based characterization. Using the 0.81-m telescope of the Tenagra Observatory (110°52'44.8''W, +31°27'44.4''N, 1312 m) in Arizona, USA, and the Johnson-Cousins BVRI filters, we have found lightcurves of 2002 GT (Figure). The Tenagra II 0.81-m telescope is used for research of the Hayabusa2 target Asteroid (162173) 1999 JU_3. The lightcurves (relative magnitude) show that the rotation period of 2002 GT, the target of NASA's Deep Impact/EPOXI spacecraft, is estimated to be 3.7248 ± 0.1664 hr. On June 9, 2013, we had 7 hours of ground-based observations on 2002 GT from 4:00 to 11:00 UTC. The number of comparison stars for differential photometry was 34. Because of tracking the fast-moving asteroid, it was necessary to have the same comparison star among the fields of vision. We have also obtained absolute photometry of 2002 GT on June 13, 2013.

Incorporating Uncertainty into Spacecraft Mission and Trajectory Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juliana D., Feldhacker

The complex nature of many astrodynamic systems often leads to high computational costs or degraded accuracy in the analysis and design of spacecraft missions, and the incorporation of uncertainty into the trajectory optimization process often becomes intractable. This research applies mathematical modeling techniques to reduce computational cost and improve tractability for design, optimization, uncertainty quantication (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) in astrodynamic systems and develops a method for trajectory optimization under uncertainty (OUU). This thesis demonstrates the use of surrogate regression models and polynomial chaos expansions for the purpose of design and UQ in the complex three-body system. Results are presented for the application of the models to the design of mid-eld rendezvous maneuvers for spacecraft in three-body orbits. The models are shown to provide high accuracy with no a priori knowledge on the sample size required for convergence. Additionally, a method is developed for the direct incorporation of system uncertainties into the design process for the purpose of OUU and robust design; these methods are also applied to the rendezvous problem. It is shown that the models can be used for constrained optimization with orders of magnitude fewer samples than is required for a Monte Carlo approach to the same problem. Finally, this research considers an application for which regression models are not well-suited, namely UQ for the kinetic de ection of potentially hazardous asteroids under the assumptions of real asteroid shape models and uncertainties in the impact trajectory and the surface material properties of the asteroid, which produce a non-smooth system response. An alternate set of models is presented that enables analytic computation of the uncertainties in the imparted momentum from impact. Use of these models for a survey of asteroids allows conclusions to be drawn on the eects of an asteroid's shape on the ability to successfully divert the asteroid via kinetic impactor.

Defending Cultural Assets Against a Cosmic Impact Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, James; Camacho, Sergio

2016-04-01

Asteroid or comet impacts on Earth have the potential to destroy humanity's cultural heritage, ranging from local regions to total obliteration. Fortunately we now have means to cope with this hazard -- if and only if we devote resources to finding, intercepting and deflecting threatening objects. Early preparations have already begun. Under auspices of the UN's Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) an International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and a Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) have been set up. Upon validation of a threat by IAWN and SMPAG, agencies with capacity, funding and authority to launch intercept missions are to act. A model for this is the existing arrangement for organizing and dispatching UN peacekeeping forces. In this paper we describe current technical options and needed policy and legal developments to enable the world to divert threats and, if that fails or is impossible, to save lives through evacuation and civil defense. In parallel with those efforts, we advocate the creation of safe archives as backup for lost cultural treasures.

Satellite and Ground System Solutions at Your Fingertips

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

In the summer of 1998, the blockbuster action movie Armageddon captivated audiences with a thrilling doomsday plot about a meteor the size of Texas that was racing towards the Earth. Though the premise of the movie was purely fictional, the unfortunate reality is that near-Earth asteroids such as the one portrayed in the film do exist. On December 23, 2004, NASA announced that an asteroid it anticipated to pass near the Earth on April 13, 2029, had been assigned the highest score to date on the universally used Torino Impact Hazard Scale. At first, the flyby distance for the asteroid, dubbed MN4, was uncertain and an Earth impact could not be ruled out. The odds of impact were initially believed to be 1 in 300, high enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers around the world, but were then escalated to 1 in 37 on December 27. NASA officials noted, however, that these odds should not be of public concern, since they were likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data were received. The officials were correct in their assertion, as any chances of an impact with Earth in 2029 were completely ruled out later that same day. Integral Systems, Inc., a leading provider of satellite ground systems and the first company to offer an integrated suite of commercial-off-the-shelf software products for satellite command and control, is helping NASA keep a careful watch for any close-encountering asteroids with its tracking technology. The company supported the first NASA Discovery mission, the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) program, back in 1996, and has expanded its business by building more ground systems for a greater variety of satellites than any other company in the world. (NASA has since launched seven more Discovery missions, with the eighth lifting off earlier this year.) The experience gained from the company s participation in developing satellite command and control ground systems for the NEAR program has bolstered its flagship product line, the EPOCH Integrated Product Suite (IPS), first featured in Spinoff 1997, and led to the creation of its latest product, the Skylight Direct Broadcast Ground Terminal.

Discovery of Spin-Rate-Dependent Asteroid Thermal Inertia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Alan; Drube, Line

2016-10-01

Knowledge of the surface thermal inertia of an asteroid can provide insight into surface structure: porous material has a lower thermal inertia than rock. Using WISE/NEOWISE data and our new asteroid thermal-inertia estimator we show that the thermal inertia of main-belt asteroids (MBAs) appears to increase with spin period. Similar behavior is found in the case of thermophysically-modeled thermal inertia values of near-Earth objects (NEOs). We interpret our results in terms of rapidly increasing material density and thermal conductivity with depth, and provide evidence that thermal inertia increases by factors of 10 (MBAs) to 20 (NEOs) within a depth of just 10 cm. On the basis of a picture of depth-dependent thermal inertia our results suggest that, in general, thermal inertia values representative of solid rock are reached some tens of centimeters to meters below the surface in the case of MBAs (the median diameter in our dataset = 24 km). In the case of the much smaller (km-sized) NEOs a thinner porous surface layer is indicated, with large pieces of solid rock possibly existing just a meter or less below the surface. These conclusions are consistent with our understanding from in-situ measurements of the surfaces of the Moon, and a few asteroids, and suggest a very general picture of rapidly changing material properties in the topmost regolith layers of asteroids. Our results have important implications for calculations of the Yarkovsky effect, including its perturbation of the orbits of potentially hazardous objects and those of asteroid family members after the break-up event. Evidence of a rapid increase of thermal inertia with depth is also an important result for studies of the ejecta-enhanced momentum transfer of impacting vehicles ("kinetic impactors") in planetary defense.

Nuclear subsurface explosion modeling and hydrodynamic fragmentation simulation of hazardous asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premaratne, Pavithra Dhanuka

Disruption and fragmentation of an asteroid using nuclear explosive devices (NEDs) is a highly complex yet a practical solution to mitigating the impact threat of asteroids with short warning time. A Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) concept, developed at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC), consists of a primary vehicle that acts as kinetic impactor and a secondary vehicle that houses NEDs. The kinetic impactor (lead vehicle) strikes the asteroid creating a crater. The secondary vehicle will immediately enter the crater and detonate its nuclear payload creating a blast wave powerful enough to fragment the asteroid. The nuclear subsurface explosion modeling and hydrodynamic simulation has been a challenging research goal that paves the way an array of mission critical information. A mesh-free hydrodynamic simulation method, Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) was utilized to obtain both qualitative and quantitative solutions for explosion efficiency. Commercial fluid dynamics packages such as AUTODYN along with the in-house GPU accelerated SPH algorithms were used to validate and optimize high-energy explosion dynamics for a variety of test cases. Energy coupling from the NED to the target body was also examined to determine the effectiveness of nuclear subsurface explosions. Success of a disruption mission also depends on the survivability of the nuclear payload when the secondary vehicle approaches the newly formed crater at a velocity of 10 km/s or higher. The vehicle may come into contact with debris ejecting the crater which required the conceptual development of a Whipple shield. As the vehicle closes on the crater, its skin may also experience extreme temperatures due to heat radiated from the crater bottom. In order to address this thermal problem, a simple metallic thermal shield design was implemented utilizing a radiative heat transfer algorithm and nodal solutions obtained from hydrodynamic simulations.

Astronomical Research Institute Photometric Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linder, Tyler R.; Sampson, Ryan; Holmes, Robert

2013-01-01

The Astronomical Research Institute (ARI) conducts astrometric and photometric studies of asteroids with a concentration on near-Earth objects (NEOs). A 0.76-m autoscope was used for photometric studies of seven asteroids of which two were main-belt targets and five were NEOs, including one potentially hazardous asteroid (PHA). These objects are: 3122 Florence, 3960 Chaliubieju, 5143 Heracles, (6455) 1992 HE, (36284) 2000 DM8, (62128) 2000 SO1, and 2010 LF86.

Adventures in near-Earth object exploration.

PubMed

Asphaug, Erik

2006-06-02

Asteroids, because of the hazard they pose to Earth, are compelling targets for robotic and human space exploration. Yet because of their exotic low-gravity environment, simply landing on an asteroid appears to be much more challenging than we had appreciated 5 or 10 years ago. Thanks to a bold new mission from Japan that has made the first asteroid sample return attempt, this goal is now within our reach.

Broadband Photometry of Planetary Radar Target 2013 US3.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, Michael; Chesley, Jana; Rhoades, Heath

2018-05-01

The Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) 2013 US3 was discovered on October 24 2013 by the Mt. Lemmon Survey (MPEC 2013-U46) and has been identified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) as well as a possible spacecraft mission target (NHATS).

Sensitivity of Asteroid Impact Risk to Uncertainty in Asteroid Properties and Entry Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Dotson, Jessie L.; NASA Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

2017-10-01

A central challenge in assessing the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty inherent throughout all aspects of the problem. Many asteroid properties are not well characterized and can range widely from strong, dense, monolithic irons to loosely bound, highly porous rubble piles. Even for an object of known properties, the specific entry velocity, angle, and impact location can swing the potential consequence from no damage to causing millions of casualties. Due to the extreme rarity of large asteroid strikes, there are also large uncertainties in how different types of asteroids will interact with the atmosphere during entry, how readily they may break up or ablate, and how much surface damage will be caused by the resulting airbursts or impacts.In this work, we use our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to uncertainties in key asteroid properties, entry parameters, or modeling assumptions. The PAIR model combines physics-based analytic models of asteroid entry and damage in a probabilistic Monte Carlo framework to assess the risk posed by a wide range of potential impacts. The model samples from uncertainty distributions of asteroid properties and entry parameters to generate millions of specific impact cases, and models the atmospheric entry and damage for each case, including blast overpressure, thermal radiation, tsunami inundation, and global effects. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix and vary the different input parameters and compare the effect on the resulting range of damage produced. The goal of these studies is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.

Quantifying Coastal Hazard of Airburst-Generated Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V. V.; Boslough, M.

2017-12-01

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid-generated tsunami is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we have run a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles for tsunami modelers to use as source functions. We used hydrocodes to model airburst scenarios and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunami are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa, corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. The blast wave from an airburst propagates at a speed close to a tsunami speed only in the deepest part of the ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be usually achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst can generate tsunami with substantial coastal hazard to contribute to the overall impact risk.

Guided asteroid deflection by kinetic impact: Mapping keyholes to an asteroid's surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chesley, S.; Farnocchia, D.

2014-07-01

The kinetic impactor deflection approach is likely to be the optimal deflection strategy in most real-world cases, given the likelihood of decades of warning time provided by asteroid search programs and the probable small size of the next confirmed asteroid impact that would require deflection. However, despite its straightforward implementation, the kinetic impactor approach can have its effectiveness limited by the astrodynamics that govern the impactor spacecraft trajectory. First, the deflection from an impact is maximized when the asteroid is at perihelion, while an impact near perihelion can in some cases be energetically difficult to implement. Additionally, the asteroid change in velocity Δ V should aligned with the target's heliocentric velocity vector in order to maximize the deflection at a potential impact some years in the future. Thus the relative velocity should be aligned with or against the heliocentric velocity, which implies that the impactor and asteroid orbits should be tangent at the point of impact. However, for natural bodies such as meteorites colliding with the Earth, the relative velocity vectors tend to cluster near the sunward or anti- sunward directions, far from the desired direction. This is because there is generally a significant crossing angle between the orbits of the impactor and target and an impact at tangency is unusual. The point is that hitting the asteroid is not enough, but rather we desire to hit the asteroid at a point when the asteroid and spacecraft orbits are nearly tangent and when the asteroid is near perihelion. However, complicating the analysis is the fact that the impact of a spacecraft on an asteroid would create an ejecta plume that is roughly normal to the surface at the point of impact. This escaping ejecta provides additional momentum transfer that generally adds to the effectiveness of a kinetic deflection. The ratio β between the ejecta momentum and the total momentum (ejecta plus spacecraft) can range from around 1 for a porous, compressible body producing negligible ejecta, to 2 when the ejecta momentum matches the spacecraft momentum, and as high as 5--10 for rocky bodies that produce large, high-velocity ejecta fragments. If the impactor hits the centerpoint of a spherical asteroid the momentum of the escaping ejecta directly adds to the momentum of the impacting asteroid, but if the impact is oblique then the ejecta and spacecraft momenta are added to the asteroid in vector sum. This suggests the possibility that for a given intercept trajectory the asteroid deflection could include guidance by targeting an oblique impact that could steer the asteroid Δ V to a more optimal direction that is different from the relative velocity direction of the spacecraft. An oblique impact decreases the net Δ V magnitude, and yet could significantly increase the net deflection at the time of the threatening Earth encounter. We use asteroid (101955) Bennu, which is the target of the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission and which has a series of potential Earth impacts in the years from 2175--2196, as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the oblique impact. These future potential impacts will occur if the asteroid passes through one of a series of keyholes when the asteroid passes the Earth at roughly the lunar distance from the Earth in 2135. To study the Bennu deflection problem we simulate a hypervelocity spacecraft impact on Bennu in March 2021, after the OSIRIS-REx mission is complete. In our example, the spacecraft arrives from approximately the sunward direction, and targeting ahead or behind the center of the asteroid allows non-negligible transverse accelerations for modest values of β. A given impact location on the asteroid surface yields a given Δ V vector, and our approach starts by mapping the net Δ V components on the surface for an assumed value of β. Knowing the mapping from impact location to Δ V and also the mapping from Δ V to the future Earth miss distance allows us to map the surface locations where a spacecraft impact would lead to an Earth impact 150--200 years later. In effect, we are able to project Earth impact trajectories, or keyholes, onto the asteroid surface and, for a given value of β, we can target our impactor spacecraft for an area on the surface that avoids potential Earth impacts. Of course, at the present time we have little information on what is the appropriate value or range of values for β in the case of asteroid Bennu, or any other asteroid for that matter. However, if this information is made known, either through a precursor mission or better inferences as to its nature we can develop a distribution of β that can be used to better design an impact deflection strategy. Specifically, we can compute a map of Earth impact probability density on the surface of the asteroid based on an assumed probability density function for β. If we target the lowest impact probability density regions then we maximize the chance of a successful deflection. This approach has the potential to allow more efficient kinetic impactor deflection, and therefore the deflection of larger bodies than would otherwise be possible.

Asteroids, Comets, Meteors 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muinonen, K.; Penttilä, A.; Granvik, M.; Virkki, A.; Fedorets, G.; Wilkman, O.; Kohout, T.

2014-08-01

Asteroids, Comets, Meteors focuses on the research of small Solar System bodies. Small bodies are the key to understanding the formation and evolution of the Solar System, carrying signals from pre-solar times. Understanding the evolution of the Solar System helps unveil the evolution of extrasolar planetary systems. Societally, small bodies will be important future resources of minerals. The near-Earth population of small bodies continues to pose an impact hazard, whether it be small pieces of falling meteorites or larger asteroids or cometary nuclei capable of causing global environmental effects. The conference series entitled ''Asteroids, Comets, Meteors'' constitutes the leading international series in the field of small Solar System bodies. The first three conferences took place in Uppsala, Sweden in 1983, 1985, and 1989. The conference is now returning to Nordic countries after a quarter of a century. After the Uppsala conferences, the conference has taken place in Flagstaff, Arizona, U.S.A. in 1991, Belgirate, Italy in 1993, Paris, France in 1996, Ithaca, New York, U.S.A. in 1999, in Berlin, Germany in 2002, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 2005, in Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.A. in 2008, and in Niigata, Japan in 2012. ACM in Helsinki, Finland in 2014 will be the 12th conference in the series.

Simulations of hypervelocity impacts for asteroid deflection studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heberling, T.; Ferguson, J. M.; Gisler, G. R.; Plesko, C. S.; Weaver, R.

2016-12-01

The possibility of kinetic-impact deflection of threatening near-earth asteroids will be tested for the first time in the proposed AIDA (Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment) mission, involving two independent spacecraft, NASAs DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) and ESAs AIM (Asteroid Impact Mission). The impact of the DART spacecraft onto the secondary of the binary asteroid 65803 Didymos, at a speed of 5 to 7 km/s, is expected to alter the mutual orbit by an observable amount. The velocity imparted to the secondary depends on the geometry and dynamics of the impact, and especially on the momentum enhancement factor, conventionally called beta. We use the Los Alamos hydrocodes Rage and Pagosa to estimate beta in laboratory-scale benchmark experiments and in the large-scale asteroid deflection test. Simulations are performed in two- and three-dimensions, using a variety of equations of state and strength models for both the lab-scale and large-scale cases. This work is being performed as part of a systematic benchmarking study for the AIDA mission that includes other hydrocodes.

Impact: an Integrated Approach (Space and Ground) for Monitoring the Threat of Earth Orbit Corssing Celestial Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussolino, L.; Somma, R.

The threat of possible collision of asteroids and comets with our planet has reached an international stage since 1990 when U.S.A. Congress set up a dedicated committee for the analysis and the assessment of this problem.The U.N. organized a congress later on to summarize the current knowledge on this subject as well as the Europea Council recommended its member states to conduct studies to further deepen the understanding in terms of tackling and solving this kind of problem interesting the entire world. IMPACT is the acronym for " International Monitoring Program for Asteroids and Comets Threats " coming out as proposal from a study funded by the italian region PIEMONTE throughout the Civil Protection Bureau and performed by the Planetology Group of the Astronomical Observatory of Torino ( Italy ) and Alenia Spazio for the engineering part. They have carried out a series of analyses aimed at contributing in subsequent steps to the solution of the two fundamental problems associated to the potential impact threat : the assessment of the numbers of killers/terminators and the impact rates from one side and the development of the idea of considering space segments for supporting activities of discovery as well as the physical and mineralogical characterization using satellites in orbit around the Earth. other additional studies also funded by the European Space Agency where the space technology appears to offer a great contribution if conveniently integrated with the Earth networks for Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHA ) detection. An international approach for monitoring this threat for the Earth is then proposed.

THE PHYSICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF THE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS ASTEROID 2004 BL86: A FRAGMENT OF A DIFFERENTIATED ASTEROID

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reddy, Vishnu; Sanchez, Juan A.; Takir, Driss

The physical characterization of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) is important for impact hazard assessment and evaluating mitigation options. Close flybys of PHAs provide an opportunity to study their surface photometric and spectral properties that enable the identification of their source regions in the main asteroid belt. We observed PHA (357439) 2004 BL86 during a close flyby of the Earth at a distance of 1.2 million km (0.0080 AU) on 2015 January 26, with an array of ground-based telescopes to constrain its photometric and spectral properties. Lightcurve observations showed that the asteroid was a binary and subsequent radar observations confirmed themore » binary nature and gave a primary diameter of 300 m and a secondary diameter of 50–100 m. Our photometric observations were used to derive the phase curve of 2004 BL86 in the V-band. Two different photometric functions were fitted to this phase curve, the IAU H–G model and the Shevchenko model. From the fit of the H–G function we obtained an absolute magnitude of H = 19.51 ± 0.02 and a slope parameter of G = 0.34 ± 0.02. The Shevchenko function yielded an absolute magnitude of H = 19.03 ± 0.07 and a phase coefficient b = 0.0225 ± 0.0006. The phase coefficient was used to calculate the geometric albedo (Ag) using the relationship found by Belskaya and Schevchenko, obtaining a value of Ag = 40% ± 8% in the V-band. With the geometric albedo and the absolute magnitudes derived from the H–G and the Shevchenko functions we calculated the diameter (D) of 2004 BL86, obtaining D = 263 ± 26 and D = 328 ± 35 m, respectively. 2004 BL86 spectral band parameters and pyroxene chemistry are consistent with non-cumulate eucrite meteorites. A majority of these meteorites are derived from Vesta and are analogous with surface lava flows on a differentiated parent body. A non-diagnostic spectral curve match using the Modeling for Asteroids tool yielded a best-match with non-cumulate eucrite Bereba. Three other near-Earth asteroids (1993 VW, 1998 KK17, and 2000 XH44) that were observed by Burbine et al. also have spectral properties similar to 2004 BL86. The presence of eucrites with anomalous oxygen isotope ratios compared to the howardites, eucrites, and diogenites meteorites from Vesta suggests the possible presence of multiple differentiated bodies in the inner main belt or the contamination of Vesta’s surface with exogenic material. The spectral properties of both anomalous and Vestan eucrites are degenerate, making it difficult to identify the parent bodies of anomalous eucrites in the main belt and the NEO population using remote sensing. This makes it difficult to link 2004 BL86 directly to Vesta, although the Vesta family is the largest contributor of V-types to near-Earth space.« less

Non-seismic tsunamis: filling the forecast gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, C. W.; Titov, V. V.; Spillane, M. C.

2015-12-01

Earthquakes are the generation mechanism in over 85% of tsunamis. However, non-seismic tsunamis, including those generated by meteorological events, landslides, volcanoes, and asteroid impacts, can inundate significant area and have a large far-field effect. The current National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tsunami forecast system falls short in detecting these phenomena. This study attempts to classify the range of effects possible from these non-seismic threats, and to investigate detection methods appropriate for use in a forecast system. Typical observation platforms are assessed, including DART bottom pressure recorders and tide gauges. Other detection paths include atmospheric pressure anomaly algorithms for detecting meteotsunamis and the early identification of asteroids large enough to produce a regional hazard. Real-time assessment of observations for forecast use can provide guidance to mitigate the effects of a non-seismic tsunami.

The Osiris-Rex Mission - Sample Acquisitions Strategy and Evidence for the Nature of Regolith on Asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauretta, D. S.; Barucci, M. A.; Bierhaus, E. B.; Brucato, J. R.; Campins, H.; Christensen, P. R.; Clark, B. C.; Connolly, H. C.; Dotto, E.; Dworkin, J. P.;

Measuring the Yarkovsky effect with Las Cumbres Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenstreet, Sarah; Farnocchia, Davide; Lister, Tim

2017-10-01

The Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO) provides an ideal platform for follow-up and characterization of Solar System objects (e.g. asteroids, Kuiper Belt Objects, comets, Near-Earth Objects) and ultimately for the discovery of new objects. We have used LCO's global network of nine 1-meter telescopes to measure the Yarkovsky effect on tens of asteroids through precise astrometric measurements using the Gaia-DR1 catalog, providing lower uncertainty with each detection. The target asteroids were picked through simulated observations each month to determine the objects for which new astrometry would yield the most improvement. The Gaia-DR1 release has greatly improved the quality of the astrometry obtained, making the detection of the Yarkovsky effect more likely and secure by greatly reducing systematic catalog zonal errors. With the release of DR2 next year and the availability of good reference star colors, we will be able to take other more subtle effects into account in the astrometric reduction. In addition, the availability of the Gaia catalog would allow re-measurement of past data with more accurate star catalogs. The amount of Yarkovsky acceleration depends on several physical properties, such as the asteroid spin state, size, mass, and thermal properties, to which detection of the effect can give important constraints. The effect is also important for understanding the transportation of asteroids and meteorites into near-Earth space from the main belt, producing the NEOs and for the formation and evolution of asteroid families. Determining and modeling the Yarkovsky effect can be critical for accurate prediction of asteroid trajectories and even for impact hazard assessment. The measurements made with the help of LCO have significantly increased the number of known asteroids with Yarkovsky detections. LCO is ideally suited to perform these observations due to its ability to monitor several targets over several days by employing dynamic scheduling, weather avoidance, and use of multiple sites around the globe.

Exploring Extreme Retro-reflection by Asteroids Using Las Cumbres Observatory Robotic Telescope Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goguen, Jay D.; Bauer, James M.

2017-10-01

The reflectivity of solar system surfaces ‘spikes’ sharply when the Sun is less than 1 degree from directly behind the observer. The Galileo spacecraft measured the reflectivity of part of Europa’s surface to increase by as much as a factor of 8 as the observer moves from 5 degrees to the exact backscattering direction! One mechanism explains this spike as coherent light scattering that occurs only close to this unique retro-reflection geometry. Due to the tight linear alignment of the target, observer and Sun required to measure the peak brightness of the spike, accurate and complete measurements of the amplitude and decay of the spike exist for only a few targets. We used the unique capabilities of the automated Las Cumbres Observatory global telescope network (LCO) to systematically measure this extreme opposition surge for 60+ asteroids sampling a variety of taxonomic classes in the Bus/DeMeo taxonomy.Each asteroid was observed in the SDSS r’ and g’ filters during the ~8 hour interval when it passes within ~0.1 deg of the point opposite the Sun on the sky. Supporting observations of each asteroid with LCO collected over ~50 days measure asteroid rotation and phase angle brightness changes to enable accurate characterization of the retro-reflection spike. This data set vastly increases the number and variety of the surfaces characterized at such small phase angles compared to existing asteroid data. We examine how the spike characteristics vary with surface composition, albedo, and wavelength providing new constraints on physical models of this ubiquitous yet poorly understood phenomenon.Analysis and modeling of these measurements will advance our understanding of the physical mechanism responsible for this enhanced retro-reflection thereby improving our ability to characterize these surfaces from remote observations. The ability to infer surface physical properties from remote sensing data is a key capability for future asteroid missions, manned exploration, impact hazard assessment, and fundamental asteroid science.

Cutting-Edge Science from Arecibo Observatory: Introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmelz, Joan T.

2017-01-01

The Arecibo Observatory is home to the largest radio telescope in the world operating above 2 GHz, where molecule emission pertaining to the origins of life proliferate. It also houses the most powerful radar system on the planet, providing crucial information for the assessment of impact hazards of near-Earth asteroids (NEA). It was built to study the ionosphere with a radar system that can also monitor the effects of Space Weather and climate change. Arecibo has a proven track record for doing excellent science, even after 50 years of operations. This talk will include brief summaries of several Arecibo astronomy topics including the (1) latest attempts to resolve the Pleiades distance controversy, which include VLBI and Gaia; (2) galactic and extragalactic molecules; and (3) Arecibo 3D orbit determinations of potentially hazardous asteroids, and the crucial observation required to select Bennu as the target for the recently launched NASA OSIRIS-REx mission. This introduction will set the stage for the invited talks in this session, which include such topics as Fast Radio Bursts, galactic and extragalactic HI results, the pulsar emission problem, and NANOGrav. This work is supported by NSF and NASA.

Design of the optical communication system for the asteroid impact mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heese, C.; Sodnik, Z.; Carnelli, I.

2017-09-01

The Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) is part of the joint Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) project of ESA, DLR, Observatoire de la Côte d'Ázur, NASA, and Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL).

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: Multiple sources and global applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grezio, Anita; Babeyko, Andrey; Baptista, Maria Ana; Behrens, Jörn; Costa, Antonio; Davies, Gareth; Geist, Eric L.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; González, Frank I.; Griffin, Jonathan; Harbitz, Carl B.; LeVeque, Randall J.; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Omira, Rachid; Mueller, Christof; Paris, Raphaël; Parsons, Thomas E.; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Selva, Jacopo; Sørensen, Mathilde B.; Thio, Hong Kie

2017-01-01

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grezio, Anita; Babeyko, Andrey; Baptista, Maria Ana; Behrens, Jörn; Costa, Antonio; Davies, Gareth; Geist, Eric L.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; González, Frank I.; Griffin, Jonathan; Harbitz, Carl B.; LeVeque, Randall J.; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Omira, Rachid; Mueller, Christof; Paris, Raphaël.; Parsons, Tom; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Selva, Jacopo; Sørensen, Mathilde B.; Thio, Hong Kie

2017-12-01

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Thermal fatigue as the origin of regolith on small asteroids.

PubMed

Delbo, Marco; Libourel, Guy; Wilkerson, Justin; Murdoch, Naomi; Michel, Patrick; Ramesh, K T; Ganino, Clément; Verati, Chrystele; Marchi, Simone

2014-04-10

Space missions and thermal infrared observations have shown that small asteroids (kilometre-sized or smaller) are covered by a layer of centimetre-sized or smaller particles, which constitute the regolith. Regolith generation has traditionally been attributed to the fall back of impact ejecta and by the break-up of boulders by micrometeoroid impact. Laboratory experiments and impact models, however, show that crater ejecta velocities are typically greater than several tens of centimetres per second, which corresponds to the gravitational escape velocity of kilometre-sized asteroids. Therefore, impact debris cannot be the main source of regolith on small asteroids. Here we report that thermal fatigue, a mechanism of rock weathering and fragmentation with no subsequent ejection, is the dominant process governing regolith generation on small asteroids. We find that thermal fragmentation induced by the diurnal temperature variations breaks up rocks larger than a few centimetres more quickly than do micrometeoroid impacts. Because thermal fragmentation is independent of asteroid size, this process can also contribute to regolith production on larger asteroids. Production of fresh regolith originating in thermal fatigue fragmentation may be an important process for the rejuvenation of the surfaces of near-Earth asteroids, and may explain the observed lack of low-perihelion, carbonaceous, near-Earth asteroids.

Velocity distributions among colliding asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bottke, William F., Jr.; Nolan, Michael C.; Greenberg, Richard; Kolvoord, Robert A.

1994-01-01

The probability distribution for impact velocities between two given asteroids is wide, non-Gaussian, and often contains spikes according to our new method of analysis in which each possible orbital geometry for collision is weighted according to its probability. An average value would give a good representation only if the distribution were smooth and narrow. Therefore, the complete velocity distribution we obtain for various asteroid populations differs significantly from published histograms of average velocities. For all pairs among the 682 asteroids in the main-belt with D greater than 50 km, we find that our computed velocity distribution is much wider than previously computed histograms of average velocities. In this case, the most probable impact velocity is approximately 4.4 km/sec, compared with the mean impact velocity of 5.3 km/sec. For cases of a single asteroid (e.g., Gaspra or Ida) relative to an impacting population, the distribution we find yields lower velocities than previously reported by others. The width of these velocity distributions implies that mean impact velocities must be used with caution when calculating asteroid collisional lifetimes or crater-size distributions. Since the most probable impact velocities are lower than the mean, disruption events may occur less frequently than previously estimated. However, this disruption rate may be balanced somewhat by an apparent increase in the frequency of high-velocity impacts between asteroids. These results have implications for issues such as asteroidal disruption rates, the amount/type of impact ejecta available for meteoritical delivery to the Earth, and the geology and evolution of specific asteroids like Gaspra.

The Big Splash: Tsunami from Large Asteroid and Comet Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hills, J.; Goda, M.

Asteroid and comet impacts produce a large range of damage. Tsunami may produce most of the economic damage in large asteroid impacts. Large asteroid impacts produce worldwide darkness lasting several months that may kill more people by mass starvation, especially in developing countries, than would tsunami, but the dust should not severely affect economic infrastructure. The tsunami may even kill more people in developed countries with large coastal populations, such as the United States, than the starvation resulting from darkness. We have been determining which regions of Earth are most susceptible to asteroid tsunami by simulating the effect of a large asteroid impact into mid-ocean. We have modeled the effect of midAtlantic and midPacific impacts that produce craters 300 to 150 km in diameter. A KT-size impactor would cause the larger of these craters. We used a computer code that has successfully determined the runup and inundation from historical earthquake-generated tsunami. The code has been progressively improved to eliminate previous problems at the domain boundaries, so it now runs until the tsunami inundation is complete. We find that the larger of these two midAtlantic impacts would engulf the entire Florida Peninsula. The smaller one would inundate the eastern third of the peninsula while a tsunami passing through the Gulf of Cuba would inundate the West Coast of Florida. Impacts at three different sites in the Pacific show the great vulnerability of Tokyo and its surroundings to asteroid tsunami. Mainland Asia is relatively protected from asteroid tsunami. In Europe, the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic Providences of France are highly vulnerable to asteroid tsunami.

Meteorites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenniskens, Peter

2015-08-01

Meteorites have long been known to offer a unique window into planetary formation processes at the time of solar system formation and into the materials that rained down on Earth at the time of the origin of life. Their material properties determine the impact hazard of Near Earth Asteroids. Some insight into how future laboratory studies of meteorites and laboratory astrophysics simulations of relevant physical processes can help address open questions in these areas and generate new astronomical observations, comes from what was learned from the recent laboratory studies of freshly fallen meteorites. The rapid recovery of Almahata Sitta (a polymict Ureilite), Sutter's Mill (a CM chondrite regolith breccia), Novato (an L6 chondrite), and Chelyabinsk (an LL5 chondrite) each were followed by the creation of a meteorite consortium, which grew to over 50 researchers in the case of Chelyabinsk. New technologies were used to probe the organic content of the meteorites as well as their magnetic signatures, isotopic abundances, trapped noble gasses, and cosmogenic radio nucleides, amongst others. This has resulted in fascinating insight into the nature of the Ureilite parent body, the likely source region of the CM chondrites in the main asteroid belt, and the collisional environment of the CM parent body. This work has encouraged follow-up in the hope of catching more unique materials. Rapid response efforts are being developed that aim to recover meteorites as pristinely as possible from falls for which the approach orbit was measured. A significant increase in the number of known approach orbits for different meteorite types will help tie meteorite types to their asteroid family source regions. Work so far suggests that future laboratory studies may recognize multiple source regions for iron-rich ordinary chondrites, for example. Hope is that these source regions will give insight into the material properties of impacting asteroids. At least some future laboratory astrophysics experiments are expected to focus on clarifying the physical conditions during small asteroid impacts such as the one responsible for the Chelyabinsk airburst and the over 1200 injured who needed medical attention.

Radar observations of near-Earth asteroids from Arecibo Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera-Valentin, Edgard G.; Taylor, Patrick A.; Rodriguez-Ford, Linda A.; Zambrano Marin, Luisa Fernanda; Virkki, Anne; Aponte Hernandez, Betzaida

2016-10-01

The Arecibo S-Band (2.38 GHz, 12.6 cm, 1 MW) planetary radar system at the 305-m William E. Gordon Telescope in Arecibo, Puerto Rico is the most active and most sensitive planetary radar facility in the world. Since October 2015, we have detected 56 near-Earth asteroids, of which 17 are classified as potentially hazardous to Earth and 22 are compliant with the Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Target Study (NHATS) as possible future robotic- or human-mission destinations. We will present a sampling of the asteroid zoo observed by the Arecibo radar since the 2015 DPS meeting. This includes press-noted asteroids 2015 TB145, the so-called "Great Pumpkin", and 2003 SD220, the so-called "Christmas Eve asteroid".

Observation of asteroid 2013 TV135 supports my idea that a new impaction will come in 20 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Dayong

2014-03-01

Asteroid 2013 TV135 who will impact in 2023 was newly discovered by Ukrainian astronomers in 2013. It supports my idea that a new impaction will come in 20 years. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/asteroid20131017.html, http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2011.DFD.LA.24, http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2012.APR.K1.78, http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2013.APR.S2.14. The Sun's companion-dark hole, which is made of dark matter seasonal took its dark comets belt, dark matter, dark lives, and the pressed asteroids belt to impact near our earth. These impactions and dark matter's killers caused seasonal extinctions and produced new species. By many dark comets and asteroids impacting, the dark impaction model is a high probability impaction model; the impaction would not change the orbit of the invisible dark hole, so that it could keep accurate periodicity impactions. With the space-time center, the dark hole system is a negative Einstein's model by ``mass-energy coordinate.'' Sun and Dark hole build up the balance system. Through studying the model, the rule of the impaction can be calculated. Avoid Earth Extinction Association.

Unveiling Clues from Spacecraft Missions to Comets and Asteroids through Impact Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lederer, Susan M.; Jensen, Elizabeth; Fane, Michael; Smith, Douglas; Holmes, Jacob; Keller, Lindasy P.; Lindsay, Sean S.; Wooden, Diane H.; Whizin, Akbar; Cintala, Mark J.;

Momentum transfer in asteroid impacts. I. Theory and scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holsapple, Keith A.; Housen, Kevin R.

2012-11-01

When an asteroid experiences an impact, its path is changed. How much it changes is important to know for both asteroid evolution studies and for attempts to prevent an asteroid from impacting the Earth. In an impact process the total momentum of the material is conserved. However, not all of the material is of interest, but only that remaining with the asteroid. The ratio of the change of momentum of the remaining asteroid to that of the impactor is called the momentum multiplication factor; and is commonly given the symbol β. It has been known for some time that β can be greater than unity, and in some cases far greater. That could be a significant factor in attempts to deflect an asteroid with an impact, and can also be important in the stirring of objects in the asteroid belt due to mutual impacts. The escaping crater ejecta are the source of the momentum multiplication. Housen and Holsapple (Housen, K.R., Holsapple, K.A. [2011a]. Icarus 211, 856-875) have given a recent summary of ejecta characteristics and scaling. Here we use those ejecta results to determine how β depends on the impactor properties, on the asteroid size and composition, and establish the paths and time of flight of all of the ejecta particles. The approach is to add the contribution of each element of ejected mass accounting for its initial velocity, its trajectory and whether it escapes the asteroid. The goal in this paper is to provide a theoretical framework of the fundamental results which can be used as a test of the veracity of experiments and detailed numerical calculations of impacts. A subsequent paper will present direct laboratory results and numerical simulations of momentum multiplication in various geological materials.

Asteroid Impact Mission: relevance to asteroid mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, P.; Kueppers, M.; Carnelli, I.

2017-09-01

The Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) is the European (ESA) component of the AIDA mission in collaboration with NASA. The objectives of AIDA are: (1) to perform a test of asteroid deflection using a kinetic impactor with the USA (NASA) component DART, and (2) with AIM, to investigate the binary near-Earth asteroid Didymos, in particular its secondary and target of DART, with data of high value for mining purposes.

Observing Campaign for Potential Deep Impact Flyby Target 163249 (2002 GT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pittichova, Jana; Chesley, S. R.; Abell, P. A.; Benner, L. A. M.

2012-01-01

The Deep Impact spacecraft is currently on course for a Jan. 4, 2020 flyby of the sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroid 163249 (2002 GT). The re-targeting will be complete with a final small maneuver scheduled for Oct. 4, 2012. 2002 GT, which is also designated as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA), has a well-determined orbit and is approx 800 m in diameter (H=18.3). Little more is known about the nature of this object, but in mid-2013 it will pass near the Earth, affording an exceptional opportunity for ground-based characterization. At this apparition 2002 GT will be in range of Arecibo. In addition to Doppler measurements, radar delay observations with precisions of a few microseconds are expected and have a good chance of revealing whether the system is binary or not. The asteroid will be brighter than 16th mag., which will facilitate a host of observations at a variety of wavelengths. Light curve measurements across a wide range of viewing perspectives will reveal the rotation rate and ultimately lead to strong constraints on the shape and pole orientation. Visible and infrared spectra will constrain the mineralogy, taxonomy, albedo and size. Along with the radar observations, optical astrometry will further constrain the orbit, both to facilitate terminal guidance operations and to potentially reveal nongravitational forces acting on the asteroid. Coordinating all of these observations will be a significant task and we encourage interested observers to collaborate in this effort. The 2013 apparition of 2002 GT represents a unique opportunity to characterize a potential flyby target, which will aid interpretation of the high-resolution flyby imagery and aid planning and development of the flyby imaging sequence. The knowledge gained from this flyby will be highly relevant to the human exploration program at NASA, which desires more information on the physical characteristics of sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroids.

Recent optical observations of NHATS target 2015 DP155

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reshetnyk, V.; Godunova, V.; Sergeev, O.; Simon, A.

2018-05-01

We report light curve observations of the near-Earth asteroid 2015 DP155 which is on the NASA's list of potential future space mission targets (NHATS). It was first observed at Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala, on 2015, February 17 and has been classified by the Minor Planet Center as a potentially hazardous asteroid.

Highest Resolution Topography of 433 Eros and Implications for MUSES-C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, A. F.; Barnouin-Jha, O.

2003-01-01

The highest resolution observations of surface morphology and topography at asteroid 433 Eros were obtained by the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) Shoemaker spacecraft on 12 February 2001, as it landed within a ponded deposit on Eros. Coordinated observations were obtained by the imager and the laser rangefinder, at best image resolution of 1 cm/pixel and best topographic resolution of 0.4 m. The NEAR landing datasets provide unique information on rock size and height distributions and regolith processes. Rocks and soil can be distinguished photometrically, suggesting that bare rock is indeed exposed. The NEAR landing data are the only data at sufficient resolution to be relevant to hazard assessment on future landed missions to asteroids, such as the MUSES-C mission which will land on asteroid 25143 (1998 SF36) in order to obtain samples. In a typical region just outside the pond where NEAR landed, the areal coverage by resolved positive topographic features is 18%. At least one topographic feature in the vicinity of the NEAR landing site would have been hazardous for a spacecraft.

Maturation of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, J. O..; Burkhard, C. D.

2017-01-01

As described at IPPW 12 [1], NASA initiated a new research activity focused on Planetary Defense (PD) on October 1, 2014. The overarching function of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is to provide capabilities to assess impact damage of any Near-Earth Object (NEO) that could inflict on the Earth. The activity includes four interrelated efforts: Initial Conditions (at the atmospheric entry interface); Entry Modeling (energy deposition in the atmosphere); Hazards (on the surface including winds, over pressures, thermal exposures, craters, tsunami and earthquakes) and Risk (physics-based). This paper outlines progress by ATAP and highlights achievements that are complimentary to activities of interest to the International Planetary Probe community. The ATAPs work is sponsored by NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), a part of the agency's Science Mission Directorate [1] Arnold, J. O., et. al., Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense, IPPW 12 Cologne Germany, June 15-19. 2015.

AIDA: The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Michel, P.; Cheng, A. F.; Reed, C.; Ulamec, S.; Biele, J.; Abell, P.; Landis, R.

2013-09-01

The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission, a joint effort of ESA, JHU/APL, NASA, OCA, and DLR, is the first demonstration of asteroid deflection and assessment via kinetic impact. AIDA consists of two independent but mutually supporting mission elements, one of which is the asteroid kinetic impactor and the other is the characterization spacecraft. These two missions are, respectively, JHU/APL's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) and the European Space Agency's Asteroid Investigation Mission (AIM) missions. As in the separate DART and AIM studies, the target of this mission is the binary asteroid [65803] Didymos in October, 2022. For a successful joint mission, one spacecraft, DART, would impact the secondary of the Didymos system while AIM would observe and measure any change in the relative orbit. AIM will be the first probe to characterise a binary asteroid, especially from the dynamical point of view, but also considering its interior and subsurface composition. The mission concept focuses on the monitoring aspects i.e., the capability to determine in-situ the key physical properties of a binary asteroid playing a role in the system's dynamic behavior. DART will be the first ever space mission to deflect the trajectory of an asteroid in a measurable way.- It is expected that the deflection can be measured as a change in the relative orbit period with a precision better than 10%. The joint AIDA mission will return vital data to determine the momentum transfer efficiency of the kinetic impact [1,2].

A Killer Asteroids Research Project for Undergraduate Non-Majors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puckett, Andrew W.; Rector, T. A.

2009-01-01

We present a progress report on the development and testing of our Killer Asteroids Research Project, which enables the assessment of asteroid impact risk in the undergraduate classroom. This is part of an NSF CCLI grant to develop Research Based Science Education (RBSE) curricula for non-majors. Our curricula include six projects covering astrometric, photometric, and spectroscopic techniques, which are being tested at multiple schools of varying sizes around the country. We report on the second semester of testing this project with undergraduates at the University of Alaska Anchorage. Students use our Polaris Plugin for ImageJ to perform both astrometry and aperture photometry on research-grade astronomical images. The output is fed into Find_Orb, which uses a Monte Carlo method to compute orbital elements for thousands of possible orbits. The resulting orbit database is then fed into a planetarium program, which allows students to visualize the uncertainty region and to observe how that region changes with time and/or additional data. For potentially hazardous asteroids, impact risk is assessed by counting the number of "clone” orbits that strike a planet's surface. Alternatively, the output from our plugin can be used directly to measure the lightcurves of minor planets, leading to an improved understanding of their shapes. This plugin is the first FITS reader to produce correct time-stamps for minor planet observations found in the SDSS, which observes in drift-scan mode. Recent progress is promising. We are in dialogue with software engineers behind both Starry Night and Guide, helping to improve these planetarium programs as research tools. We are also constantly improving the Polaris Plugin, most recently to make it compatible with the astrometry format used by the websites NeoDys and AstDys.

ATLAS: A High-cadence All-sky Survey System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonry, J. L.; Denneau, L.; Heinze, A. N.; Stalder, B.; Smith, K. W.; Smartt, S. J.; Stubbs, C. W.; Weiland, H. J.; Rest, A.

2018-06-01

Technology has advanced to the point that it is possible to image the entire sky every night and process the data in real time. The sky is hardly static: many interesting phenomena occur, including variable stationary objects such as stars or QSOs, transient stationary objects such as supernovae or M dwarf flares, and moving objects such as asteroids and the stars themselves. Funded by NASA, we have designed and built a sky survey system for the purpose of finding dangerous near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). This system, the “Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System” (ATLAS), has been optimized to produce the best survey capability per unit cost, and therefore is an efficient and competitive system for finding potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) but also for tracking variables and finding transients. While carrying out its NASA mission, ATLAS now discovers more bright (m < 19) supernovae candidates than any ground based survey, frequently detecting very young explosions due to its 2 day cadence. ATLAS discovered the afterglow of a gamma-ray burst independent of the high energy trigger and has released a variable star catalog of 5 × 106 sources. This is the first of a series of articles describing ATLAS, devoted to the design and performance of the ATLAS system. Subsequent articles will describe in more detail the software, the survey strategy, ATLAS-derived NEA population statistics, transient detections, and the first data release of variable stars and transient light curves.

Chemical, thermal and impact processing of asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, E. R. D.; Taylor, G. J.; Newsom, H. E.; Herbert, F.; Zolensky, M.

1989-01-01

The geological effects of impacts, heating, melting, core formation, and aqueous alteration on asteroids are reviewed. A review of possible heat sources appears to favor an important role for electrical induction heating. The effects of each geologic process acting individually and in combination with others, are considered; it is concluded that there is much evidence for impacts during alteration, metamorphism and melting. These interactions vastly increased the geologic diversity of the asteroid belt. Subsequent impacts of cool asteroids did not reduce this diversity. Instead new rock types were created by mixing, brecciation and minor melting.

Near-Earth object intercept trajectory design for planetary defense

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vardaxis, George; Wie, Bong

2014-08-01

Tracking the orbit of asteroids and planning for asteroid missions have ceased to be a simple exercise, and become more of a necessity, as the number of identified potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroids increases. Several software tools such as Mystic, MALTO, Copernicus, SNAP, OTIS, and GMAT have been developed by NASA for spacecraft trajectory optimization and mission design. However, this paper further expands upon the development and validation of an Asteroid Mission Design Software Tool (AMiDST), through the use of approach and post-encounter orbital variations and analytic keyhole theory. Combining these new capabilities with that of a high-precision orbit propagator, this paper describes fictional mission trajectory design examples of using AMiDST as applied to a fictitious asteroid 2013 PDC-E. During the 2013 IAA Planetary Defense Conference, the asteroid 2013 PDC-E was used for an exercise where participants simulated the decision-making process for developing deflection and civil defense responses to a hypothetical asteroid threat.

Science case for the Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM): A component of the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Patrick; Cheng, A.; Küppers, M.; Pravec, P.; Blum, J.; Delbo, M.; Green, S. F.; Rosenblatt, P.; Tsiganis, K.; Vincent, J. B.; Biele, J.; Ciarletti, V.; Hérique, A.; Ulamec, S.; Carnelli, I.; Galvez, A.; Benner, L.; Naidu, S. P.; Barnouin, O. S.; Richardson, D. C.; Rivkin, A.; Scheirich, P.; Moskovitz, N.; Thirouin, A.; Schwartz, S. R.; Campo Bagatin, A.; Yu, Y.

2016-06-01

The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is a joint cooperation between European and US space agencies that consists of two separate and independent spacecraft that will be launched to a binary asteroid system, the near-Earth asteroid Didymos, to test the kinetic impactor technique to deflect an asteroid. The European Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) is set to rendezvous with the asteroid system to fully characterize the smaller of the two binary components a few months prior to the impact by the US Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft. AIM is a unique mission as it will be the first time that a spacecraft will investigate the surface, subsurface, and internal properties of a small binary near-Earth asteroid. In addition it will perform various important technology demonstrations that can serve other space missions. The knowledge obtained by this mission will have great implications for our understanding of the history of the Solar System. Having direct information on the surface and internal properties of small asteroids will allow us to understand how the various processes they undergo work and transform these small bodies as well as, for this particular case, how a binary system forms. Making these measurements from up close and comparing them with ground-based data from telescopes will also allow us to calibrate remote observations and improve our data interpretation of other systems. With DART, thanks to the characterization of the target by AIM, the mission will be the first fully documented impact experiment at asteroid scale, which will include the characterization of the target's properties and the outcome of the impact. AIDA will thus offer a great opportunity to test and refine our understanding and models at the actual scale of an asteroid, and to check whether the current extrapolations of material strength from laboratory-scale targets to the scale of AIDA's target are valid. Moreover, it will offer a first check of the validity of the kinetic impactor concept to deflect a small body and lead to improved efficiency for future kinetic impactor designs. This paper focuses on the science return of AIM, the current knowledge of its target from ground-based observations, and the instrumentation planned to get the necessary data.

Calculation methods for estimating the prospects of a space experiment by means of impact by asteroid Apophis on the Moon surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostrik, A. V.; Kazantsev, A. M.

2018-01-01

The problem of principal change of asteroid 99952 (Apophis) orbit is formulated. Aim of this change is the termination of asteroid motion in Solar system. Instead of the passive rescue tactics from asteroid threat, an option is proposed for using the asteroid for setting up a large-scale space experiment on the impact interaction of the asteroid with the Moon. The scientific and methodical apparatus for calculating the possibility of realization, searching and justification the scientific uses of this space experiment is considered.

Cat Mountain: A meteoritic sample of an impact-melted chondritic asteroid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kring, David A.

1993-01-01

Although impact cratering and collisional disruption are the dominant geologic processes affecting asteroids, samples of impact melt breccias comprise less than 1 percent of ordinary chondritic material and none exist among enstatite and carbonaceous chondrite groups. Because the average collisional velocity among asteroids is sufficiently large to produce impact melts, this paucity of impact-melted material is generally believed to be a sampling bias, making it difficult to determine the evolutionary history of chondritic bodies and how impact processes may have affected the physical properties of asteroids (e.g., their structural integrity and reflectance spectra). To help address these and related issues, the first petrographic description of a new chondritic impact melt breccia sample, tentatively named Cat Mountain, is presented.

The breakup of a main-belt asteroid 450 thousand years ago.

PubMed

Nesvorný, David; Vokrouhlický, David; Bottke, William F

2006-06-09

Collisions in the asteroid belt frequently lead to catastrophic breakups, where more than half of the target's mass is ejected into space. Several dozen large asteroids have been disrupted by impacts over the past several billion years. These impact events have produced groups of fragments with similar orbits called asteroid families. Here we report the discovery of a very young asteroid family around the object 1270 Datura. Our work takes advantage of a method for identification of recent breakups in the asteroid belt using catalogs of osculating (i.e., instantaneous) asteroid orbits. The very young families show up in these catalogs as clusters in a five-dimensional space of osculating orbital elements.

Scenario-Based Case Study Analysis of Asteroid Mitigation in the Short Response Time Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seery, B.; Greenaugh, K. C.

2017-12-01

Asteroid impact on Earth is a rare but inevitable occurrence, with potentially cataclysmic consequences. If a pending impact is discovered, mitigation options include civil-defense preparations as well as missions to deflect the asteroid and/or robustly disrupt and disperse it to an extent that only a negligible fraction remains on a threatening path (National Research Council's "Defending the Planet," 2010). If discovered with sufficient warning time, a kinetic impactor can deflect smaller objects, but response delays can rule out the option. If a body is too large to deflect by kinetic impactor, or the time for response is insufficient, deflection or disruption can be achieved with a nuclear device. The use of nuclear ablation is considered within the context of current capabilities, requiring no need for nuclear testing. Existing, well-understood devices are sufficient for the largest known Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration are collaborating to determine the critical characterization issues that define the boundaries for the asteroid-deflection options. Drawing from such work, we examine the timeline for a deflection mission, and how to provide the best opportunity for an impactor to suffice by minimizing the response time. This integrated problem considers the physical process of the deflection method (impact or ablation), along with the spacecraft, launch capability, risk analysis, and the available intercept flight trajectories. Our joint DOE/NASA team has conducted case study analysis of three distinctly different PHOs, on a hypothetical earth impacting trajectory. The size of the design reference bodies ranges from 100 - 500 meters in diameter, with varying physical parameters such as composition, spin state, and metallicity, to name a few. We assemble the design reference of the small body in question using known values for key parameters and expert elicitation to make educated guesses on the unknown parameters, including an estimate of the overall uncertainties in those values. Our scenario-based systems approach includes 2-D and 3-D physics-based modeling and simulations.

Bayesian modeling of the mass and density of asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dotson, Jessie L.; Mathias, Donovan

2017-10-01

Mass and density are two of the fundamental properties of any object. In the case of near earth asteroids, knowledge about the mass of an asteroid is essential for estimating the risk due to (potential) impact and planning possible mitigation options. The density of an asteroid can illuminate the structure of the asteroid. A low density can be indicative of a rubble pile structure whereas a higher density can imply a monolith and/or higher metal content. The damage resulting from an impact of an asteroid with Earth depends on its interior structure in addition to its total mass, and as a result, density is a key parameter to understanding the risk of asteroid impact. Unfortunately, measuring the mass and density of asteroids is challenging and often results in measurements with large uncertainties. In the absence of mass / density measurements for a specific object, understanding the range and distribution of likely values can facilitate probabilistic assessments of structure and impact risk. Hierarchical Bayesian models have recently been developed to investigate the mass - radius relationship of exoplanets (Wolfgang, Rogers & Ford 2016) and to probabilistically forecast the mass of bodies large enough to establish hydrostatic equilibrium over a range of 9 orders of magnitude in mass (from planemos to main sequence stars; Chen & Kipping 2017). Here, we extend this approach to investigate the mass and densities of asteroids. Several candidate Bayesian models are presented, and their performance is assessed relative to a synthetic asteroid population. In addition, a preliminary Bayesian model for probablistically forecasting masses and densities of asteroids is presented. The forecasting model is conditioned on existing asteroid data and includes observational errors, hyper-parameter uncertainties and intrinsic scatter.

Assessment of DSN Communication Coverage for Space Missions to Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kegege, Obadiah; Bittner, David; Gati, Frank; Bhasin, Kul

2012-01-01

A communication coverage gap exists for Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas. This communication coverage gap is on the southern hemisphere, centered at approximate latitude of -47deg and longitude of -45deg. The area of this communication gap varies depending on the altitude from the Earth s surface. There are no current planetary space missions that fall within the DSN communication gap because planetary bodies in the Solar system lie near the ecliptic plane. However, some asteroids orbits are not confined to the ecliptic plane. In recent years, Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) have passed within 100,000 km of the Earth. NASA s future space exploration goals include a manned mission to asteroids. It is important to ensure reliable and redundant communication coverage/capabilities for manned space missions to dangerous asteroids that make a sequence of close Earth encounters. In this paper, we will describe simulations performed to determine whether near-Earth objects (NEO) that have been classified as PHAs fall within the DSN communication coverage gap. In the study, we reviewed literature for a number of PHAs, generated binary ephemeris for selected PHAs using JPL s HORIZONS tool, and created their trajectories using Satellite Took Kit (STK). The results show that some of the PHAs fall within DSN communication coverage gap. This paper presents the simulation results and our analyses

KSC-07pd1306

NASA Image and Video Library

2007-05-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- Inside Astrotech's Hazardous Processing Facility, the Dawn spacecraft is weighed before fueling. Dawn is scheduled to launch June 30 aboard a Delta II rocket from Launch Complex 17-B at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Dawn's mission is to explore two of the asteroid belt's most intriguing and dissimilar occupants: asteroid Vesta and the dwarf planet Ceres. Photo credit: NASA/Charisse Nahser

Robotic Missions to Small Bodies and Their Potential Contributions to Human Exploration and Planetary Defense

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abell, Paul A.; Rivkin, Andrew S.

2015-01-01

Introduction: Robotic missions to small bodies will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration and planetary defense. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. The science and technical data obtained from robotic precursor missions that investigate the surface and interior physical characteristics of an object will help identify the pertinent physical properties that will maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for both robotic assets and crew operating in close proximity to, or at the surface of, a small body. These data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations. These data can also be applied for gaining an understanding of pertinent small body physical characteristics that would also be beneficial for formulating future impact mitigation procedures. Small Body Strategic Knowledge Gaps: For the past several years NASA has been interested in identifying the key SKGs related to future human destinations. These SKGs highlight the various unknowns and/or data gaps of targets that the science and engineering communities would like to have filled in prior to committing crews to explore the Solar System. An action team from the Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) was formed specifically to identify the small body SKGs under the direction of the Human Exploration and Operations Missions Directorate (HEOMD), given NASA's recent interest in NEAs and the Martian moons as potential human destinations. The action team organized the SKGs into four broad themes: 1) Identify human mission targets; 2) Understand how to work on and interact with the small body surface; 3) Understand the small body environment and its potential risk/benefit to crew, systems, and operational assets; and 4) Understand the small body resource potential. Of these four SKG themes, the first three have significant overlap with planetary defense considerations. The data obtained from investigations of small body physical characteristics under these three themes can be directly applicable to planetary defense initiatives. Conclusions: Missions to investigate small bodies can address small body strategic knowledge gaps and contribute to the overall success for human exploration missions to asteroids and the Martian moons. In addition, such reconnaissance of small bodies can also provide a wealth of information relevant to the science and planetary defense of NEAs.

Recent researches into solid bodies and magnetic fields in the solar system; Proceedings of the Topical Meeting and Symposium, Ottawa, Canada, May 16-June 2, 1982

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vette, J. I. (Editor); Runcorn, S. K. (Editor); Gruen, E. (Editor); Mcdonnell, J. A. M.

1982-01-01

Topics discussed include the magnetic history of the early solar system, impact processes in solid bodies (e.g., meteoroids and asteroids), and topics related to cometary missions. The section devoted to cometary missions lays particular stress on missions to Comet Halley; attention is given to such aspects of these missions as the investigation of hypervelocity impact on the Giotto Halley mission dust shield, the detection of energetic cometary and solar particles by the EPONA instrument on the Giotto mission, the dust hazard near Comet Halley in regard to the Vega project, and cometary ephemerides for spacecraft flyby missions.

An international program to protect the earth from impact catastrophe - Initial steps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David

1992-01-01

Risks posed by impacting objects of various sizes are analyzed using the Spaceguard Survey, the 1992 NASA report of International Near-Earth-Object (NEO) Detection workshop. The state-of-the-art technology makes it possible to discover and track nearly all earth-crossing asteroids and short-period comets large enough to threaten global catastrophe. To deal with this hazard a long-term telescopic search is required that reaches stellar magnitude 22 in order to achieve a nearly complete census of objects 1 km or larger. A program can be performed on the basis of an international network of six telescopes of 2-3 m aperture equipped with modern CCD detectors and automatic signal processing capability.

Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment for the Hypothetical PDC17 Impact Exercise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan

2017-01-01

Performing impact risk assessment for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC17) hypothetical impact exercise, to take place at the PDC17 conference, May 15-20, 2017. Impact scenarios and trajectories are developed and provided by NASA's Near Earth Objects Office at JPL (Paul Chodas). These results represent purely hypothetical impact scenarios, and do not reflect any known asteroid threat. Risk assessment was performed using the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model developed by the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) at NASA Ames Research Center. This presentation includes sample results that may be presented or used in discussions during the various stages of the impact exercisecenter dot Some cases represent alternate scenario options that may not be used during the actual impact exercise at the PDC17 conference. Updates to these initial assessments and/or additional scenario assessments may be performed throughout the impact exercise as different scenario options unfold.

Collision rates and impact velocities in the Main Asteroid Belt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farinella, Paolo; Davis, Donald R.

1992-01-01

Wetherill's (1967) algorithm is presently used to compute the mutual collision probabilities and impact velocities of a set of 682 asteroids with large-than-50-km radius representative of a bias-free sample of asteroid orbits. While collision probabilities are nearly independent of eccentricities, a significant decrease is associated with larger inclinations. Collisional velocities grow steeply with orbital eccentricity and inclination, but with curiously small variation across the asteroid belt. Family asteroids are noted to undergo collisions with other family members 2-3 times more often than with nonmembers.

The asteroid impact mission: testing laser communication in deep-space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnelli, I.; Mellab, K.; Heese, C.; Sodnik, Z.; Pesquita, V.; Gutierrez, B.

2017-09-01

In October 2022 the binary asteroid system 65803 Didymos will have an exceptionally close approach with the Earth flying by within only 0.088 AU. ESA is planning to leverage on this close encounter to launch a small mission of opportunity called Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) to explore and demonstrate new technologies for future science and exploration missions while addressing planetary defence and performing asteroid scientific investigations.

Near Earth Asteroids- Prospection, Orbit Modification and Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandl, W.; Bazso, A.

2014-04-01

The number of known Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) has increased continuously during the last decades. Now we understand the role of asteroid impacts for the evolution of life on Earth. To ensure that mankind will survive in the long run, we have to face the "asteroid threat" seriously. On one hand we will have to develop methods of detection and deflection for Hazardous Asteroids, on the other hand we can use these methods to modify their orbits and exploit their resources. Rare-earth elements, rare metals like platinum group elements, etc. may be extracted more easily from NEAs than from terrestrial soil, without environmental pollution or political and social problems. In a first step NEAs, which are expected to contain resources like nickel-iron, platinum group metals or rare-earth elements, will be prospected by robotic probes. Then a number of asteroids with a minimum bulk density of 2 g/cm^3 and a diameter of 150 to 500 m will be selected for mining. Given the long duration of an individual mission time of 10-20 years, the authors propose a "pipeline" concept. While the observation of NEAs can be done in parallel, the precursor missions of the the next phase can be launched in short intervals, giving time for technical corrections and upgrades. In this way a continuous data flow is established and there are no idle times. For our purpose Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) seem to be a favorable choice for the following reasons: They have frequent closeencounters to Earth, their minimum orbit intersection distance is less than 0.05 AU (Astronomic Units) and they have diameters exceeding 150 meters. The necessary velocity change (delta V) for a spaceship is below 12 km/s to reach the PHA. The authors propose to modify the orbits of the chosen PHAs by orbital maneuvers from solar orbits to stable Earth orbits beyond the Moon. To change the orbits of these celestial bodies it is necessary to develop advanced propulsion systems. They must be able to deliver high thrust and specific impulse to move the huge masses of the asteroids. Such a propulsion system could be the Bussard Fusion System, also known as the quiet-electricdischarge (QED) engine. It uses electrostatic fusion devices to generate electrical power. The fuel consists of Deuterium and Helium3 that are fusing to Helium4 plus protons releasing 18.3 MeV of energy per reaction. The charged protons escape from the confinement; their kinetic energy can be converted to electricity or be used directly as a plasma beam for generating thrust. For the reaction a specific energy of 3.5x1014 Joule/kg can be computed, i.e. orders-ofmagnitude higher than for any existing propulsion system. As an example we take the Asteroid with the designation 2008 EV5. It is classified as an Aten group asteroid with a mean diameter of 450 meters and belongs to spectral type S (stony asteroids). Our mass estimate (using a bulk density of 3 g/cm^3) is 1.4x1011 kg. To transfer 2008 EV5 to an Earth-like orbit the energy required is estimated to be in the order of 2.8x1018 Joule. This is the difference in Kepler energy between the NEA's current orbit and the Earth's orbit around the sun. Using the Bussard Fusion System the amount of fuel would be approx. 8000 kg of Helium3. To move an asteroid by remote control the authors propose to design unmanned space tugs which are propelled by Bussard Fusion Engines. A pair of space tugs is docked to each asteroid using drilling anchors. The fusion engines of the tugs then apply the thrust forces for the maneuvers. The first tug, which carries the main fuel quantity, applies the primary force for the orbital maneuvers. The second one adjust the flight track by short engine thrusts.

Conceptual Design of a Flight Validation Mission for a Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barbee, Brent W.; Wie, Bong; Steiner, Mark; Getzandanner, Kenneth

2013-01-01

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are asteroids and comets whose orbits approach or cross Earth s orbit. NEOs have collided with our planet in the past, sometimes to devastating effect, and continue to do so today. Collisions with NEOs large enough to do significant damage to the ground are fortunately infrequent, but such events can occur at any time and we therefore need to develop and validate the techniques and technologies necessary to prevent the Earth impact of an incoming NEO. In this paper we provide background on the hazard posed to Earth by NEOs and present the results of a recent study performed by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center s Mission Design Lab (MDL) in collaboration with Iowa State University s Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) to design a flight validation mission for a Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) as part of a Phase 2 NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) research project. The HAIV is a two-body vehicle consisting of a leading kinetic impactor and trailing follower carrying a Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payload. The HAIV detonates the NED inside the crater in the NEO s surface created by the lead kinetic impactor portion of the vehicle, effecting a powerful subsurface detonation to disrupt the NEO. For the flight validation mission, only a simple mass proxy for the NED is carried in the HAIV. Ongoing and future research topics are discussed following the presentation of the detailed flight validation mission design results produced in the MDL.

Multi-Organization Multi-Discipline Effort Developing a Mitigation Concept for Planetary Defense

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leung, Ronald Y.; Barbee, Brent W.; Seery, Bernard D.; Bambacus, Myra; Finewood, Lee; Greenaugh, Kevin C.; Lewis, Anthony; Dearborn, David; Miller, Paul L.; Weaver, Robert P.;

Coordinated Time Resolved Spectrophotometry of Asteroid 163249 (2002 GT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, Erin L.; Woodward, C.; Gordon, M.; Wagner, M. R.; Chesley, S.; Hicks, M.; Pittichova, J.; Pravec, P.

2013-10-01

The near-Earth asteroid 163249 (2002 GT), classified as a potentially hazardous asteroid (PHA), has been identified a potential rendezvous target for the NASA Deep Impact spacecraft on 4 Jan 2020. As part of a coordinated international effort to study this asteroid during its 2013 apparition (J. Pittichová et al. DPS 2013), we obtained simultaneous Sloan r-band photometry at the Steward Observatory Bok 2.3-m telescope (+90Prime) and optical spectroscopic observations covering a wavelength interval from ~5400 to ~8500 Angstrom at the MMT 6.5-m (+RedChannel spectrograph) on 2013 June 16 and 17 UT near close Earth approach (heliocentric distance ~1.07 AU; geocentric distance ~0.13 AU) at 180 sec intervals over the ~3.76 hr rotational period. Our objective was to obtain a temporal sequence of spectra to assess surface mineralogy (seeking to potentially detect the 0.7 micron absorption bands attributed to phylosilicate materials) and to determine whether variations in the spectral slope and/or surface mineralogy are evident as a function of rotational period. Here we present initial analysis of these datasets, describing the light-curve and the reflectance spectra as a function of rotational phase. These datasets will be incorporated into a larger compendium describing the characteristics of asteroid 163249. Acknowledgement: This research supported in part by NASA 12-PAST-12-0010 grant NNX13AJ11G , and an appointment (E.L.R.) to the NASA Postdoctoral Program at the Goddard Space Flight Center, administered by Oak Ridge Associated Universities through a contract with NASA. Observations reported here were obtained at the MMT Observatory, a joint facility of the Smithsonian Institution and the University of Arizona. P.P. was supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, Grant P209/12/0229.

MIT Project Apophis: Surface Evaulation & Tomography (SET) Mission Study for the April 2029 Earth Encounter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binzel, R. P.; Earle, A. M.; Vanatta, M.; Miller, D. W.

2017-12-01

Nature is providing a once-per-thousand year opportunity to study the geophysical outcome induced on an unprecedentedly large (350 meter) asteroid making an extremely close passage by the Earth (inside the distance of geosynchronous satellites) on Friday April 13, 2029. The aircraft carrier-sized (estimated 20 million metric ton) asteroid is named Apophis. While many previous spacecraft missions have studied asteroids, none has ever had the opportunity to study "live" the outcome of planetary tidal forces on their shapes, spin states, surface geology, and internal structure. Beyond the science interest directly observing this planetary process, the Apophis encounter provides an invaluable opportunity to gain knowledge for any eventuality of a known asteroid found to be on a certain impact trajectory. MIT's Project Apophis [1] is our response to nature's generous opportunity by developing a detailed mission concept for sending a spacecraft to orbit Apophis with the objectives of surveying its surface and interior structure before, during, and after its 2029 near-Earth encounter. The Surface Evaluation & Tomography (SET) mission concept we present is designed toward accomplishing three key science objectives: (1) bulk physical characterization, (2) internal structure, and (3) long-term orbit tracking. For its first mission objective, SET will study Apophis' bulk properties, including: shape, size, mass, volume, bulk density, surface geology, and composition, rotation rate, and spin state. The second mission objective is to characterize Apophis' internal structure before and after the encounter to determine its strength and cohesion - including tidally induced changes. Finally, the third objective studies the process of thermal re-radiation and consequential Yarkovsky drift, whose results will improve orbit predictions for Apophis as well as other potentially hazardous asteroids. [1] https://eapsweb.mit.edu/mit-project-apophis

ASTEX - a study of a lander and orbiter mission to two near-Earth asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehnhardt, Hermann; Nathues, Andreas; Harris, Alan; Astex Study Team

ASTEX stands for a feasibility study of an exploration mission to two near-Earth asteroids. The targets should have different mineralogical constitution, more specifically one asteroid should be of ‘primitive" nature, the other one should be "evolved". The scientific goal of such a mission is to explore the physical, geological and compositional constitution of the asteroids as planetary bodies as well as to provide information and constraints on the formation and evolution history of the objects per se and of the planetary system, here the asteroid belt, as a whole. Two aspects play an important role, i.e. the search and exploration for the origin and evolution of the primordial material for the formation of life in the solar system on one side and the understanding of the processes that have led to mineralogical differentiation of planetary embryos on the other side. The mission scenario consists of an orbiting and landing phase at each target. The immediate aims of the study are (1) to identify potential targets and to develop for selected pairs more detailed mission scenarios including the best possible propulsion systems to be used, (2) to define the scientific payload of the mission, (3) to analyse the requirements and options for the spacecraft bus and the lander system, and (4) to assess and to define requirements for the operational ground segment of the mission.This eight-months study is directed by the MPI for Solar System Research under support grant by DLR Bonn-Oberkassel and is performed in close collaboration between German scientific research institutes and industry. It is considered complementary to mission studies performed elsewhere and focussing on sample return and impact hazards and their remedy from near-Earth objects.

AIDA: the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Jean-Baptiste

2016-07-01

The Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission is a joint cooperation between European and US space agencies that consists of two separate and independent spacecraft that will be launched to a binary asteroid system, the near-Earth asteroid Didymos, to assess the possibility of deflecting an asteroid trajectory by using a kinetic impactor. The European Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) is under Phase A/B1 study at ESA from March 2015 until summer 2016. AIM is set to rendez-vous with the asteroid system a few months prior to the impact by the US Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft to fully characterize the smaller of the two binary components. AIM is a unique mission as it will be the first time that a spacecraft will investigate the surface, subsurface, and internal properties of a small binary near Earth asteroid. In addition it will perform various important technology demonstrations that can serve other space missions: AIM will release a set of CubeSats in deep space and a lander on the surface of the smaller asteroid and for the first time, deep-space inter-satellite linking will be demonstrated between the main spacecraft, the CubeSats, and the lander, and data will also be transmitted from interplanetary space to Earth by a laser communication system. The knowledge obtained by this mission will have great implications for our understanding of the history of the Solar System. Small asteroids are believed to result from collisions and other processes (e.g., spinup, shaking) that made them what they are now. Having direct information on their surface and internal properties will allow us to understand how these processes work and transform these small bodies as well as, for this particular case, how a binary system forms. So far, our understanding of the collisional process and the validation of numerical simulations of the impact process rely on impact experiments at laboratory scales. With DART, thanks to the characterization of the target by AIM, the mission will be the first fully documented impact experiment at asteroid scale, which will include the characterization of the target's properties and the outcome of the impact. By comparing our in situ measurements with ground-based data from telescopes, we can calibrate better the remote observations and improve our data interpretation of other systems. Therefore, AIDA offers a unique opportunity to test and refine our understanding and models at the actual scale of an asteroid. This will allow feeding small-body collisional evolution models with more realistic parameters to draw a more reliable story of the Solar System formation and evolution. Moreover, it will offer a first check of the validity of the kinetic impactor concept to deflect a small body trajectory and lead to improved efficiency for future kinetic impactor designs.

Thermal inertia as an indicator of rockiness variegation on near-Earth asteroid surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali-Lagoa, Victor; Delbo, Marco; Hanus, Josef

2016-10-01

Determining key physical properties of asteroids such as sizes and albedos or reflectance spectra is crucial to understand their origins and the processes that they have undergone during their evolution. In particular, one of the aims of NEOShield-2 project, funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, is to physically characterize small near Earth asteroids (NEA) in an effort to determine effective mitigation strategies in case of impact with our planet [Harris et al. 2013 2013AcAau,90,80H].We performed thermophysical modelling of NEAs, such as (1685) Toro, and potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), such as (33342) 1998 WT24. In addition to size, thermophysical models (TPM) of asteroids can constrain the surface thermal inertia, which is related to the material composition and physical nature, namely its "rockiness" or typical size of the particles on its surface. These have observable effects on the surface temperature distribution as a function of time and thus on the thermal infrared fluxes we observe, to which we can fit our model.In the case of WT24, its thermal inertia has been previously constrained to be in the range 100-300 SI units [Harris et al. 2007, Icarus 188, 414H]. But this was based on a spherical shape model approximation since no shape model was available by the time. Such a low thermal inertia value seems in disagreement with a relatively high metal content of the enstatite chondrites, the meteorite type to which WT24, classified as an E-type [Lazzarin et al. 2004 A&A 425L, 25L], has been spectrally associated. Using a three-dimensional model and spin vector based on radar observations [Busch et al. 2008 Icarus 197, 375B], our TPM produces a higher best-fitting value of the thermal inertia. We also find the intriguing possibility that the hemisphere of WT24 dominated by concave terrains, possibly be the result of an impact crater, has a higher thermal inertia. This would be similar to the case of our Moon, where young impact craters are rockier than older craters covered by fully developed (i.e., fine-grained) regolith resulting from the erosion of the rocks exposed to the space environment for longer time scales.

A new mechanism for the formation of regolith on asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delbo, Marco; Libourel, Guy; Wilkerson, Justin; Murdoch, Naomi; Michel, Patrick; Ramesh, Kt; Ganino, Clement; Verati, Chrystele; Marchi, Simone

2014-11-01

The soil of asteroids, like that of the Moon, and other rocky, airless bodies in the Solar System, is made of a layer of pebbles, sand, and dust called regolith.Previous works suggested that the regolith on asteroids is made from material ejected from impacts and re-accumulated on the surface and from surface rocks that are broken down by micrometeoroid impacts. However, this regolith formation process has problems to explain the regolith on km-sized and smaller asteroids: it is known that impact fragments can reach escape velocities and breaks free from the gravitational forces of these small asteroids, indicating the impact mechanism is not the dominant process for regolith creation. Other studies also reveal that there is too much regolith on small asteroids’ surfaces to have been deposited there solely by impacts over the millions of years of asteroids’ evolution.We proposed that another process is capable of gently breaking rocks at the surface of asteroids: thermal fatigue by temperature cycling. As asteroids spin about their rotation axes, their surfaces go in and out of shadow resulting in large surface temperature variations. The rapid heating and cooling creates thermal expansion and contraction in the asteroid material, initiating cracking and propagating existing cracks. As the process is repeated over and over, the crack damage increases with time, leading eventually to rock fragmentation (and production of new regolith).To study this process, in the laboratory, we subjected meteorites, used as asteroid material analogs, to 37 days of thermal cycles similar to those occurring on asteroids. We measured cracks widening at an average rate of 0.5 mm/y. Some fragments were also produced, indicating meteorite fragmentation. To scale our results to asteroid lifetime, we incorporated our measurements into a fracture model and we deduced that thermal cycling is more efficient than micrometeorite bombardment at fragmenting rock over millions of years on asteroids (see Delbo et al. 2014. Nature 508, 233-236).This work was supported by the French Agence National de la Recherche (ANR) SHOCKS,

Enhanced Gravity Tractor Derived from the Asteroid Redirect Mission for Deflecting Hypothetical Asteroid 2017 PDC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazanek, Daniel D.; Reeves, David M.; Abell, Paul A.; Shen, Haijun; Qu, Min

2017-01-01

The Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) concept would robotically visit a hazardous-size near-Earth asteroid (NEA) with a rendezvous spacecraft, collect a multi-ton boulder and regolith samples from its surface, demonstrate an innovative planetary defense technique known as the Enhanced Gravity Tractor (EGT), and return the asteroidal material to a stable orbit around the Moon, allowing astronauts to explore the returned material in the mid-2020s. Launch of the robotic vehicle to rendezvous with the ARM reference target, NEA (341843) 2008 EV5, would occur in late 2021 [1,2]. The robotic segment of the ARM concept uses a 40 kW Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) system with a specific impulse (Isp) of 2600 s, and would provide the first ever demonstration of the EGT technique on a hazardous-size asteroid and validate one method of collecting mass in-situ. The power, propellant, and thrust capability of the ARM robotic spacecraft can be scaled from a 40 kW system to 150 kW and 300 kW, which represent a likely future power level progression. The gravity tractor technique uses the gravitational attraction of a station-keeping spacecraft with the asteroid to provide a velocity change and gradually alter the trajectory of the asteroid. EGT utilizes a spacecraft with a high-efficiency propulsion system, such as Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP), along with mass collected in-situ to augment the mass of the spacecraft, thereby increasing the gravitational force between the objects [3]. As long as the spacecraft has sufficient thrust and propellant capability, the EGT force is only limited by the amount of in-situ mass collected and can be increased several orders of magnitude compared to the traditional gravity tractor technique in which only the spacecraft mass is used to generate the gravitational attraction force. This increase in available force greatly reduces the required deflection time. The collected material can be a single boulder, multiple boulders, regolith, or a combination of different material types using a variety of collection techniques. The EGT concept assumes that the ability to efficiently collect asteroid mass in-situ from a wide variety of asteroid types and environments is a future capability that will be developed and perfected in the future by the asteroid mining community. Additionally, it is anticipated that the mass collection would likely be performed by a single or multiple separable spacecraft to allow the SEP spacecraft to operate at safe distance from the asteroid.

Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M.

2015-12-01

Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a lunar distance several times a year. A survey optimized to discover and count these objects would rapidly reduce the uncertainty in their populations. An additional benefit would be early warning of an imminent impact to give authorities time to issue evacuation or take-cover instructions in circumstances for which there would be no time the prevent an impact.

THE ORIGIN OF ASTEROID 162173 (1999 JU{sub 3})

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campins, Humberto; De Leon, Julia; Morbidelli, Alessandro

Near-Earth asteroid (162173) 1999 JU{sub 3} (henceforth JU{sub 3}) is a potentially hazardous asteroid and the target of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency's Hayabusa-2 sample return mission. JU{sub 3} is also a backup target for two other sample return missions: NASA's OSIRIS-REx and the European Space Agency's Marco Polo-R. We use dynamical information to identify an inner-belt, low-inclination origin through the {nu}{sub 6} resonance, more specifically, the region with 2.15 AU < a < 2.5 AU and i < 8 Degree-Sign . The geometric albedo of JU{sub 3} is 0.07 {+-} 0.01, and this inner-belt region contains four well-defined low-albedomore » asteroid families (Clarissa, Erigone, Polana, and Sulamitis), plus a recently identified background population of low-albedo asteroids outside these families. Only two of these five groups, the background and the Polana family, deliver JU{sub 3}-sized asteroids to the {nu}{sub 6} resonance, and the background delivers significantly more JU{sub 3}-sized asteroids. The available spectral evidence is also diagnostic; the visible and near-infrared spectra of JU{sub 3} indicate it is a C-type asteroid, which is compatible with members of the background, but not with the Polana family because it contains primarily B-type asteroids. Hence, this background population of low-albedo asteroids is the most likely source of JU{sub 3}.« less

Penetrator Coring Apparatus for Cometary Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, David F.; Heinrich, Michael; Ai, Huirong Anita; Ahrens, Thomas J.

2004-01-01

Touch and go impact coring is an attractive technique for sampling cometary nuclei and asteroidal surface on account of the uncertain strength properties and low surface gravities of these objects. Initial coring experiments in low temperature (approx. 153K polycrystalline ice) and porous rock demonstrate that simultaneous with impact coring, measurements of both the penetration strength and constraints on the frictional properties of surface materials can be obtained upon core penetration and core sample extraction. The method of sampling an asteroid, to be deployed, on the now launched MUSES-C mission, employs a small gun device that fires into the asteroid and the resulted impact ejecta is collected for return to Earth. This technique is well suited for initial sampling in a very low gravity environment and deployment depends little on asteroid surface mechanical properties. Since both asteroids and comets are believed to have altered surface properties a simple sampling apparatus that preserves stratigraphic information, such as impact coring is an attractive alternate to impact ejecta collection.

Simulation of asteroid impact on ocean surfaces, subsequent wave generation and the effect on US shorelines

DOE PAGES

Ezzedine, Souheil M.; Lomov, Ilya; Miller, Paul L.; ...

2015-05-19

As part of a larger effort involving members of several other organizations, we have conducted numerical simulations in support of emergency-response exercises of postulated asteroid ocean impacts. We have addressed the problem from source (asteroid entry) to ocean impact (splash) to wave generation, propagation and interaction with the U.S. shoreline. We simulated three impact sites. The first site is located off the east coast by Maryland's shoreline. The second site is located off of the West coast, the San Francisco bay. The third set of sites are situated in the Gulf of Mexico. Asteroid impacts on the ocean surface aremore » conducted using LLNL's hydrocode GEODYN to create the impact wave source for the shallow water wave propagation code, SWWP, a shallow depth averaged water wave code.« less

Simulation of asteroid impact on ocean surfaces, subsequent wave generation and the effect on US shorelines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ezzedine, Souheil M.; Lomov, Ilya; Miller, Paul L.

As part of a larger effort involving members of several other organizations, we have conducted numerical simulations in support of emergency-response exercises of postulated asteroid ocean impacts. We have addressed the problem from source (asteroid entry) to ocean impact (splash) to wave generation, propagation and interaction with the U.S. shoreline. We simulated three impact sites. The first site is located off the east coast by Maryland's shoreline. The second site is located off of the West coast, the San Francisco bay. The third set of sites are situated in the Gulf of Mexico. Asteroid impacts on the ocean surface aremore » conducted using LLNL's hydrocode GEODYN to create the impact wave source for the shallow water wave propagation code, SWWP, a shallow depth averaged water wave code.« less

Calculating the momentum enhancement factor for asteroid deflection studies

DOE PAGES

Heberling, Tamra; Gisler, Galen; Plesko, Catherine; ...

2017-10-17

The possibility of kinetic-impact deflection of threatening near-Earth asteroids will be tested for the first time in the proposed AIDA (Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment) mission, involving NASAs DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test). The impact of the DART spacecraft onto the secondary of the binary asteroid 65803 Didymos at a speed of 5 to 7 km/s is expected to alter the mutual orbit by an observable amount. Furthermore, the velocity transferred to the secondary depends largely on the momentum enhancement factor, typically referred to as beta. Here, we use two hydrocodes developed at Los Alamos, RAGE and PAGOSA, to calculate anmore » approximate value for beta in laboratory-scale benchmark experiments. Convergence studies comparing the two codes show the importance of mesh size in estimating this crucial parameter.« less

Calculating the momentum enhancement factor for asteroid deflection studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heberling, Tamra; Gisler, Galen; Plesko, Catherine

The possibility of kinetic-impact deflection of threatening near-Earth asteroids will be tested for the first time in the proposed AIDA (Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment) mission, involving NASAs DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test). The impact of the DART spacecraft onto the secondary of the binary asteroid 65803 Didymos at a speed of 5 to 7 km/s is expected to alter the mutual orbit by an observable amount. Furthermore, the velocity transferred to the secondary depends largely on the momentum enhancement factor, typically referred to as beta. Here, we use two hydrocodes developed at Los Alamos, RAGE and PAGOSA, to calculate anmore » approximate value for beta in laboratory-scale benchmark experiments. Convergence studies comparing the two codes show the importance of mesh size in estimating this crucial parameter.« less

Dynamical Origin and Terrestrial Impact Flux of Large Near-Earth Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesvorný, David; Roig, Fernando

2018-01-01

Dynamical models of the asteroid delivery from the main belt suggest that the current impact flux of diameter D> 10 km asteroids on the Earth is ≃0.5–1 Gyr‑1. Studies of the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) population find a much higher flux, with ≃ 7 D> 10 km asteroid impacts per Gyr. Here we show that this problem is rooted in the application of impact probability of small NEAs (≃1.5 Gyr‑1 per object), whose population is well characterized, to large NEAs. In reality, large NEAs evolve from the main belt by different escape routes, have a different orbital distribution, and lower impact probabilities (0.8 ± 0.3 Gyr‑1 per object) than small NEAs. In addition, we find that the current population of two D> 10 km NEAs (Ganymed and Eros) is a slight fluctuation over the long-term average of 1.1+/- 0.5 D> 10 km NEAs in a steady state. These results have important implications for our understanding of the occurrence of the K/T-scale impacts on the terrestrial worlds.

The Asteroid Impact Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnelli, Ian; Galvez, Andres; Mellab, Karim

2016-04-01

The Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) is a small and innovative mission of opportunity, currently under study at ESA, intending to demonstrate new technologies for future deep-space missions while addressing planetary defense objectives and performing for the first time detailed investigations of a binary asteroid system. It leverages on a unique opportunity provided by asteroid 65803 Didymos, set for an Earth close-encounter in October 2022, to achieve a fast mission return in only two years after launch in October/November 2020. AIM is also ESA's contribution to an international cooperation between ESA and NASA called Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment (AIDA), consisting of two mission elements: the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission and the AIM rendezvous spacecraft. The primary goals of AIDA are to test our ability to perform a spacecraft impact on a near-Earth asteroid and to measure and characterize the deflection caused by the impact. The two mission components of AIDA, DART and AIM, are each independently valuable but when combined they provide a greatly increased scientific return. The DART hypervelocity impact on the secondary asteroid will alter the binary orbit period, which will also be measured by means of lightcurves observations from Earth-based telescopes. AIM instead will perform before and after detailed characterization shedding light on the dependence of the momentum transfer on the asteroid's bulk density, porosity, surface and internal properties. AIM will gather data describing the fragmentation and restructuring processes as well as the ejection of material, and relate them to parameters that can only be available from ground-based observations. Collisional events are of great importance in the formation and evolution of planetary systems, own Solar System and planetary rings. The AIDA scenario will provide a unique opportunity to observe a collision event directly in space, and simultaneously from ground-based optical and radar facilities. For the first time, an impact experiment at asteroid scale will be performed with accurate knowledge of the precise impact conditions and also the impact outcome, together with information on the physical properties of the target, ultimately validating at appropriate scales our knowledge of the process and impact simulations. AIM's important technology demonstration component includes a deep-space optical communication terminal and inter-satellite network with two CubeSats deployed in the vicinity of the Didymos system and a lander on the surface of the secondary. To achieve a low-cost objective AIM's technology and scientific payload are being combined to support both close-proximity navigation and scientific investigations. AIM will demonstrate the capability to achieve a small spacecraft design with a very large technological and scientific mission return.

Seismo-Acoustic Numerical Investigation of Land Impacts, Water Impacts, or Air Bursts of Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzedine, S. M.; Miller, P. L.; Dearborn, D. S.

2016-12-01

The annual probability of an asteroid impact is low, but over time, such catastrophic events are inevitable. Interest in assessing the impact consequences has led us to develop a physics-based framework to seamlessly simulate the event from entry to impact, including air, water and ground shock propagation and wave generation. The non-linear effects are simulated using the hydrodynamics code GEODYN. As effects propagate outward, they become a wave source for the linear-elastic-wave propagation code and simulated using SAW or SWWP, depends on whether the asteroid impacts the land or the ocean, respectively. The GEODYN-SAW-SWWP coupling is based on the structured adaptive-mesh-refinement infrastructure, SAMRAI, and has been used in FEMA table-top exercises conducted in 2013 and 2014, and more recently, the 2015 Planetary Defense Conference exercise. Moreover, during atmospheric entry, asteroids create an acoustic trace that could be used to infer several physical characteristics of asteroid itself. Using SAW we explore the physical space parameters in order to rank the most important characteristics; Results from these simulations provide an estimate of onshore and offshore effects and can inform more sophisticated inundation and structural models. The capabilities of this methodology are illustrated by providing results for different impact locations, and an exploration of asteroid size on the waves arriving at the shoreline of area cities. We constructed the maximum and minimum envelops of water-wave heights or acceleration spectra given the size of the asteroid and the location of the impact along the risk corridor. Such profiles can inform emergency response and disaster-mitigation efforts. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Seismo-Acoustic Numerical Investigation of Land Impacts, Water Impacts, or Air Bursts of Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzedine, S. M.; Dearborn, D. S.; Miller, P. L.

2017-12-01

The annual probability of an asteroid impact is low, but over time, such catastrophic events are inevitable. Interest in assessing the impact consequences has led us to develop a physics-based framework to seamlessly simulate the event from entry to impact, including air, water and ground shock propagation and wave generation. The non-linear effects are simulated using the hydrodynamics code GEODYN. As effects propagate outward, they become a wave source for the linear-elastic-wave propagation code and simulated using SAW or SWWP, depends on whether the asteroid impacts the land or the ocean, respectively. The GEODYN-SAW-SWWP coupling is based on the structured adaptive-mesh-refinement infrastructure, SAMRAI, and has been used in FEMA table-top exercises conducted in 2013 and 2014, and more recently, the 2015 Planetary Defense Conference exercise. Moreover, during atmospheric entry, asteroids create an acoustic trace that could be used to infer several physical characteristics of asteroid itself. Using SAW we explore the physical space parameters in order to rank the most important characteristics; Results from these simulations provide an estimate of onshore and offshore effects and can inform more sophisticated inundation and structural models. The capabilities of this methodology are illustrated by providing results for different impact locations, and an exploration of asteroid size on the waves arriving at the shoreline of area cities. We constructed the maximum and minimum envelops of water-wave heights or acceleration spectra given the size of the asteroid and the location of the impact along the risk corridor. Such profiles can inform emergency response and disaster-mitigation efforts. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Dynamical and Physical Properties of 65803 Didymos, the AIDA Mission Target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo Bagatin, A.; Richardson, D. C.; Tsiganis, K.; Cheng, A. F.; Michel, P.

2017-09-01

The near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 65803 Didymos is a binary system and is the target of the proposed Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission, which combines an orbiter (Asteroid Impact Mission, AIM, or the reduced-scope AIM Deflection Demonstration, AIM-D2) [1, 2] and a kinetic impactor experiment (Double Asteroid Redirection Test, DART) planned to impact the secondary of the Didymos binary system in October, 2022 [3]. The Dynamical and Physical Properties of Didymos Working Group supports the AIDA mission by addressing questions related to understanding the dynamical state of the system and inferring the physical properties of the components

Martian cratering. II - Asteroid impact history.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, W. K.

1971-01-01

This paper considers the extent to which Martian craters can be explained by considering asteroidal impact. Sections I, II, and III of this paper derive the diameter distribution of hypothetical asteroidal craters on Mars from recent Palomar-Leiden asteroid statistics and show that the observed Martian craters correspond to a bombardment by roughly 100 times the present number of Mars-crossing asteroids. Section IV discusses the early bombardment history of Mars, based on the capture theory of Opik and probable orbital parameters of early planetesimals. These results show that the visible craters and surface of Mars should not be identified with the initial, accreted surface. A backward extrapolation of the impact rates based on surviving Mars-crossing asteroids can account for the majority of Mars craters over an interval of several aeons, indicating that we see back in time no further than part-way into a period of intense bombardment. An early period of erosion and deposition is thus suggested. Section V presents a comparison with results and terminology of other authors.

A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, P. G.; Assink, J. D.; Astiz, L.; Blaauw, R.; Boslough, M. B.; Borovička, J.; Brachet, N.; Brown, D.; Campbell-Brown, M.; Ceranna, L.; Cooke, W.; de Groot-Hedlin, C.; Drob, D. P.; Edwards, W.; Evers, L. G.; Garces, M.; Gill, J.; Hedlin, M.; Kingery, A.; Laske, G.; Le Pichon, A.; Mialle, P.; Moser, D. E.; Saffer, A.; Silber, E.; Smets, P.; Spalding, R. E.; Spurný, P.; Tagliaferri, E.; Uren, D.; Weryk, R. J.; Whitaker, R.; Krzeminski, Z.

2013-11-01

Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (+/-100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×1012 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations based on the effects of nuclear weapons--almost always used with this technique--overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.

The effect of asteroid topography on surface ablation deflection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, Jay W.; Scheeres, Daniel J.

2017-02-01

Ablation techniques for deflecting hazardous asteroids deposit energy into the asteroid's surface, causing an effective thrust on the asteroid as the ablating material leaves normal to the surface. Although it has long been recognized that surface topography plays an important role in determining the deflection capabilities, most studies to date have ignored this aspect of the model. This paper focuses on understanding the topography for real asteroid shapes, and how this topography can change the deflection performance of an ablation technique. The near Earth asteroids Golevka, Bennu, and Itokawa are used as the basis for this study, as all three have high-resolution shape models available. This paper shows that naive targeting of an ablation method without accounting for the surface topography can lower the deflection performance by up to 20% in the cases studied in terms of the amount of acceleration applied in the desired direction. If the ablation thrust level is assumed to be 100 N, as used elsewhere in the literature, this misapplication of thrust translates to tens of kilometers per year in decreased semimajor axis change. However, if the ablation method can freely target any visible point on the surface of the asteroid, almost all of this performance can be recovered.

Simulations of impacts on rubble-pile asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deller, J.; Snodgrass, C.; Lowry, S.; Price, M.; Sierks, H.

2014-07-01

Rubble-pile asteroids can contain a high level of macroporosity. For some asteroids, porosities of 40 % or even more have been measured [1]. While little is known about the exact distribution of the voids inside rubble-pile asteroids, assumptions have to be made for the modeling of impact events on these bodies. Most hydrocodes do not distinguish between micro- and macroporosity, instead describing brittle material by a constitutive model as homogeneous. We developed a method to model rubble-pile structures in hypervelocity impact events explicitly. The formation of the asteroid is modelled as a gravitational aggregation of spherical `pebbles', that form the building blocks of our target. This aggregate is then converted into a high-resolution Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) model, which also accounts for macroporosity inside the pebbles. We present results of a study that quantifies the influence of our model parameters on the outcome of a typical impact event of two small main-belt asteroids. The existence of void space in our model increases the resistance against collisional disruption, a behavior observed before [2]. We show that for our model no a priori knowledge of the rubble-pile constituents in the asteroid is needed, as the choice of the corresponding parameters does not directly correlate with the impact outcome. The size distribution of the pebbles used as building blocks in the formation of an asteroid is only poorly constrained. As a starting point, we use a power law N(>r) ∝ r^α to describe the distribution of radii of the pebbles. Reasonable values for the slope α range around α=-2.5, as found in the size distribution of main-belt objects [3,4]. The cut-off values for pebbles, r_{min} and r_{max} are given by practical considerations: In the SPH formalism, properties are represented by weighted averages of particles within their smoothing length h, preventing the resolution of structures below that scale. Using spheres with radius in the range of h results in a practically monolithic body, as well as using spheres of a radius similar to the asteroid itself. We quantify the sensitivity of impact outcomes to the choice of parameters. Propagation of the shock front inside the asteroid depends on the pebble size distribution. While larger pebbles transmit the shock wave further into the structure, resulting in a steeper crater, small pebbles result in a more evenly distributed shock front and a wider crater. Because the shock wave is transmitted only at the small contact area of the pebbles, the shock wave is focused at the contact points and material can be compressed or damaged even at a distance to the impact zone. We create maps of the displacement of pebbles at the surface of the asteroid on the opposing site of the impact event. This can possibly be used to relate surface features on asteroids like Šteins or Itokawa to specific impact events.

Broadband Photometry Of The Potentially Asteroid 277475 (2005 WK4) and Corrected 52762 (1998 MT24) Colors.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, M.; Buratt, B.; Carcione, A.; Borlase, R.

2013-08-01

The Near-Earth Object (NEO) 277475 (2005 WK4) was discovered by the Siding Spring Survey (MPEC 2005-W79) on November 27, 2005. With a Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) of 0.004 AU and absolute magnitude H_V=20.1 mag, this object has been designated a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) by the Minor Planet Center. The asteroid made an Earth close-approach of 0.021 AU on August 09.2, 2013 and was extensively imaged by the JPL Planetary Radar Team ( http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-254 ).

DEEP-South: Preliminary Photometric Results from the KMTNet-CTIO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Myung-Jin; Moon, Hong-Kyu; Choi, Young-Jun; Yim, Hong-Suh; Bae, Young-Ho; Roh, Dong-Goo; Park, Jin Tae; Moon, Bora

2016-01-01

Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) successfully completed the development of Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet, Park et al. 2012) in mid-2015, following which it conducted test runs for several months. `DEep Ecliptic Patrol of the Southern sky' (DEEP-South, Moon et al. 2015), which will be used for asteroid and comet studies, will not only characterize targeted asteroids, carrying out blind surveys toward the sweet spots, but will also mine the data of such bodies using the KMTNet archive. We report preliminary lightcurves of four Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) from test runs at KMTNet-CTIO in the February - May 2015 period.

First known terrestrial impact of a binary asteroid from a main belt breakup event.

PubMed

Ormö, Jens; Sturkell, Erik; Alwmark, Carl; Melosh, Jay

2014-10-23

Approximately 470 million years ago one of the largest cosmic catastrophes occurred in our solar system since the accretion of the planets. A 200-km large asteroid was disrupted by a collision in the Main Asteroid Belt, which spawned fragments into Earth crossing orbits. This had tremendous consequences for the meteorite production and cratering rate during several millions of years following the event. The 7.5-km wide Lockne crater, central Sweden, is known to be a member of this family. We here provide evidence that Lockne and its nearby companion, the 0.7-km diameter, contemporaneous, Målingen crater, formed by the impact of a binary, presumably 'rubble pile' asteroid. This newly discovered crater doublet provides a unique reference for impacts by combined, and poorly consolidated projectiles, as well as for the development of binary asteroids.

Origin of igneous meteorites and differentiated asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, E.; Goldstein, J.; Asphaug, E.; Bottke, W.; Moskovitz, N.; Keil, K.

2014-07-01

Introduction: Igneously formed meteorites and asteroids provide major challenges to our understanding of the formation and evolution of the asteroid belt. The numbers and types of differentiated meteorites and non-chondritic asteroids appear to be incompatible with an origin by fragmentation of numerous Vesta-like bodies by hypervelocity impacts in the asteroid belt over 4 Gyr. We lack asteroids and achondrites from the olivine-rich mantles of the parent bodies of the 12 groups of iron meteorites and the ˜70 ungrouped irons, the 2 groups of pallasites and the 4--6 ungrouped pallasites. We lack mantle and core samples from the parent asteroids of the basaltic achondrites that do not come from Vesta, viz., angrites and the ungrouped eucrites like NWA 011 and Ibitira. How could core samples have been extracted from numerous differentiated bodies when Vesta's basaltic crust was preserved? Where is the missing Psyche family of differentiated asteroids including the complementary mantle and crustal asteroids [1]? Why are meteorites derived from far more differentiated parent bodies than chondritic parent bodies even though C and S class chondritic asteroids dominate the asteroid belt? New paradigm. Our studies of meteorites, impact modeling, and dynamical studies suggest a new paradigm in which differentiated asteroids accreted at 1--2 au less than 2 Myr after CAI formation [2]. They were rapidly melted by 26Al and disrupted by hit-and-run impacts [3] while still molten or semi-molten when planetary embryos were accreting. Metallic Fe-Ni bodies derived from core material cooled rapidly with little or no silicate insulation less than 4 Myr after CAI formation [4]. Fragments of differentiated planetesimals were subsequently tossed into the asteroid belt. Meteorite evidence for early disruption of differentiated asteroids. If iron meteorites were samples of Fe-Ni cores of bodies that cooled slowly inside silicate mantles over ˜50--100 Myr, irons from each core would have almost indistinguishable cooling rates as thermal gradients across cores would have been minimal. Irons in groups IIIAB, IVA, and IVB have chemical crystallization trends showing that they cooled in three separate bodies. However, each shows a wide range of cooling rates [4]. Group IVA irons cooled through 500°C at 6600--100 °C/Myr in a metallic body of radius 150 ± 50 km with scarcely any silicate insulation [5]. The Pb-Pb age of 4565.3 ± 0.1 Myr for a IVA iron [6] confirms that these irons cooled to ˜300°C only 2--3 Myr after CAI formation. Multiple hit-and-run impacts may have separated core and mantle material during accretion [7] as hypervelocity impacts do not efficiently separate cores from mantles. Thermal histories and magnetic properties of main group pallasites also require early catastrophic disruption of their primary parent body [8,9]. Conclusions. The anomalous properties of differentiated asteroids and meteorites cannot be explained by concealing differentiated planetesimals under chondritic crusts [10] as meteorite breccias and the apparent compositional homogeneity of asteroid families are inconsistent with this model. Like Burbine et al. [11], we attribute the lack of olivine mantle meteorites and asteroids to collisional grinding of weaker silicate and the preferential survival of stronger metallic Fe,Ni fragments. But we infer that asteroid break up occurred very early inside 2 au, not in the asteroid belt over 4 Gyr. Vesta may have preserved its crust due to early ejection into the asteroid belt. It is the smallest terrestrial planet --- not an archetypal differentiated asteroid.

Images of an Activated Asteroid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2016-08-01

In late April of this year, asteroid P/2016 G1 (PANSTARRS) was discovered streaking through space, a tail of dust extending behind it. What caused this asteroids dust activity?Asteroid or Comet?Images of asteroid P/2016 G1 at three different times: late April, late May, and mid June. The arrow in the center panel points out an asymmetric feature that can be explained if the asteroid initially ejected material in a single direction, perhaps due to an impact. [Moreno et al. 2016]Asteroid P/2016 G1 is an interesting case: though it has the orbital elements of a main-belt asteroid it orbits at just under three times the EarthSun distance, with an eccentricity of e ~ 0.21 its appearance is closer to that of a comet, with a dust tail extending 20 behind it.To better understand the nature and cause of this unusual asteroids activity, a team led by Fernando Moreno (Institute of Astrophysics of Andalusia, in Spain) performed deep observations of P/2016 G1 shortly after its discovery. The team used the 10.4-meter Great Canary Telescope to image the asteroid over the span of roughly a month and a half.A Closer Look at P/2016 G1P/2016 G1 lies in the inner region of the main asteroid belt, so it is unlikely to have any ices that suddenly sublimated, causing the outburst. Instead, Moreno and collaborators suggest that the asteroids tail may have been caused by an impact that disrupted the parent body.To test this idea, the team used computer simulations to model their observations of P/2016 G1s dust tail. Based on their models, they demonstrate that the asteroid was likely activated on February 10 2016 roughly 350 days before it reached perihelion in its orbit and its activity was a short-duration event, lasting only ~24 days. The teams models indicate that over these 24 days, the asteroid lost around 20 million kilograms of dust, and at its maximum activity level, it was ejecting around 8 kg/s!Comparison of the observation from late May (panel a) and two models: one in which the emission is all isotropic (panel b), and one in which the emission is initially directed (panel c). The second model better fits the observations. [Adapted from Moreno et al. 2016]Activation By ImpactTo reproduce the observed asymmetric features in the asteroids tail, Moreno and collaborators show that the ejected material could not have been completely isotropically emitted. Instead, the observations can be reproduced if the material was initially ejected all in the same direction (away from the Sun) at the time of the asteroids activation.These conclusions support the idea that the asteroids parent body was impacted by another object. The initial impact caused a large ejection of material, and the subsequent activity is due to the partial or total disruption of the asteroid as a result of the impact.To further test this model for P/2016 G1, the next step is to obtain higher-resolution and higher-sensitivity imaging (as could be provided by Hubble) of this unusual object. Such images would allow scientists to search for smaller fragments of the parent body that could remain near the dust tail.CitationF. Moreno et al 2016 ApJ 826 L22. doi:10.3847/2041-8205/826/2/L22

Hazards by meteoroid Impacts onto operational spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landgraf, M.; Jehn, R.; Flury, W.

Operational spacecraft in Earth orbit or on interplanetary trajectories are exposed to high-velocity particles that can cause damage to sensitive on-board instrumentation. In general there are two types of hazard: direct destruction of functional elements by impacts, and indirect disturbance of instruments by the generated impact plasma. The latter poses a threat especially for high-voltage instrumentation and electronics. While most meteoroids have sizes in the order of a few micrometre, and typical masses of 10-15 kg, the most dangerous population with sizes in the millimetre and masses in the milligramme range exhibits still substantial impact fluxes in the order of 2 × 10-11 m-2 s-1 . This level of activity can by significantly elevated during passages of the spacecraft through cometary trails, which on Earth cause events like the well-known Leonid and Perseid meteor streams. The total mass flux of micrometeoroids onto Earth is about 107 kg yr-1 , which is about one order of magnitude less than the estimated mass flux of large objects like comets and asteroids with individual masses above 105 kg. In order to protect spacecraft from the advert effects of meteoroid impacts, ESA performs safety operations on its spacecraft during meteor streams, supported by real-time measurements of the meteor activity. A summary of past and future activities is given.

Impact Tsunami Calculations: Hydrodynamical Simulations vs. Linear Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korycansky, E.; Asphaug, E.; Ward, S. N.

2003-01-01

Tsunamis generated by the impacts of asteroids and comets into the Earth oceans are widely recognized as a potential catastrophic hazard to the Earth s population. Our general conclusion is that linear theory is a reasonably accurate guide to behavior of tsunamis generated by impactors of moderate size, where the initial transient impact cavity is of moderate depth compared to the ocean depth. This is particularly the case for long wavelength waves that propagate fastest and would reach coastlines first. Such tsunamis would be generated in the open ocean by impactors of 300 meters in diameter, which might be expected to strike the Earth once every few thousand years, on the average. Larger impactors produce cavities deep enough to reach the ocean floor; even here, linear theory is applicable if the starting point is chosen at a later phase in the calculation when the impact crater has slumped back to produce a cavity of moderate depth and slope.

From detection to deflection: Mitigation techniques for hidden global threats of natural space objects with short warning time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussein, Alaa; Rozenheck, Oshri; Entrena Utrilla, Carlos Manuel

2016-09-01

Throughout recorded history, hundreds of Earth impacts have been reported, with some catastrophic localized consequences. Based on the International Space University (ISU) Planetary Defense project named READI, we address the impact event problem by giving recommendations for the development of a planetary defense program. This paper reviews the current detection and tracking techniques and gives a set of recommendations for a better preparation to shield Earth from asteroid and cometary impacts. We also extend the use of current deflection techniques and propose a new compilation of those to deflect medium-sized potentially hazardous objects (PHOs). Using an array of techniques from high-energy lasers to defensive missiles, we present a set of protective layers to defend our planet. The paper focused on threats with a short warning period from discovery to impact with Earth, within few years.

Consequences of impacts of small asteroids and comets with Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hills, J. G.

1994-01-01

The fragmentation of a small asteroid in the atmosphere greatly increases its cross sections for aerodynamic braking and energy dissipation. At a typical impact velocity of 22 km/s, the atmosphere absorbs more than half the kinetic energy of stony meteoroids with diameters, D(sub m), less than 220 m and iron meteoroids with D(sub m) less than 80 m. The corresponding diameter for comets with impact velocity 50 km/s is D(sub m) less than 1600 m. Most of the atmospheric energy dissipation occurs in a fraction of a scale height, so large meteors appear to 'explode' or 'flare' at the end of their visible paths. This dissipation of energy in the atmosphere protects the earth from direct impact damage (e.g., craters), but it produces a blast wave that can do considerable damage. The area of destruction around the impact point in which the over-pressure in the blast wave exceeds 4 lb/sq in = 2.8 x 10(exp 5) dynes/cu cm, which is enough to knock over trees and destroy buildings, increases rapidly from zero for chondritic meteoroids less than 56 m in diameter (15 megatons) to about 200 sq km for those 80 m in diameter (48 megatons); the probable diameter of the tunguska impactor of 1908 is about 80 m. Crater formation and earthquakes are not significant in land impacts by stony asteroids less than about 200 m in diameter because of the air protection. A tsunami is probably the most devastating type of damage for asteroids 200 m to 1 km in diameter. An impact by an asteroid this size anywhere in the Atlantic would devastate coastal areas on both sides of the ocean. An asteroid a few kilometers across would produce a tsunami that would reach the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains in the upper half of the East Coast of the United States. Most of Florida is protected from a tsunami by the gradual slope of the ocean off its coast, which causes most of the tsunami energy to be reflected back into the Atlantic. The atmosphere plume produced by asteroids with diameters exceeding about 120 m cannot be contained by the atmosphere, so this bubble of high-temperature gas forms a new layer on top of the atmosphere. The dust entrapped in this hot gas is likely to have optical depths exceeding tau = 10 for asteroids with diameters exceeding about 0.5 to 1 km. The optical flux from asteroids 60 m or more in diameter is enough to ignite pine forests. However, the blast wave from an impacting asteroid goes beyond the radius in which the fire starts. The blast wave tends to blow out the fire, so it is likely that the impact will char the forest, as at Tunguska, but the impact will not produce a sustained fire. Because comets dissipate their energy much higher in the atmosphere than asteroids, they illuminate a much larger region and their blast wave is weaker. So they are much more effective in producing large fires. This suggests that the KT impactor was a comet rather than an asteroid.

Asteroids IV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Patrick; DeMeo, Francesca E.; Bottke, William F.

Asteroids are fascinating worlds. Considered the building blocks of our planets, many of the authors of this book have devoted their scientific careers to exploring them with the tools of our trade: ground- and spacebased observations, in situ space missions, and studies that run the gamut from theoretical modeling efforts to laboratory work. Like fossils for paleontologists, or DNA for geneticists, they allow us to construct a veritable time machine and provide us with tantalizing glimpses of the earliest nature of our solar system. By investigating them, we can probe what our home system was like before life or even the planets existed. The origin and evolution of life on our planet is also intertwined with asteroids in a different way. It is believed that impacts on the primordial Earth may have delivered the basic components for life, with biology favoring attributes that could more easily survive the aftermath of such energetic events. In this fashion, asteroids may have banished many probable avenues for life to relative obscurity. Similarly, they may have also prevented our biosphere from becoming more complex until more recent eras. The full tale of asteroid impacts on the history of our world, and how human life managed to emerge from myriad possibilities, has yet to be fully told. The hazard posed by asteroid impacts to our civilization is low but singular. The design of efficient mitigation strategies strongly relies on asteroid detection by our ground- and spacebased surveys as well as knowledge of their physical properties. A more positive motivation for asteroid discovery is that the proximity of some asteroids to Earth may allow future astronauts to harvest their water and rare mineral resources for use in exploration. A key goal of asteroid science is therefore to learn how humans and robotic probes can interact with asteroids (and extract their materials) in an efficient way. We expect that these adventures may be commonplace in the future. Asteroids, like planets, are driven by a great variety of both dynamical and physical mechanisms. In fact, images sent back by space missions show a collection of small worlds whose characteristics seem designed to overthrow our preconceived notions. Given their wide range of sizes and surface compositions, it is clear that many formed in very different places and at different times within the solar nebula. These characteristics make them an exciting challenge for researchers who crave complex problems. The return of samples from these bodies may ultimately be needed to provide us with solutions. In the book Asteroids IV, the editors and authors have taken major strides in the long journey toward a much deeper understanding of our fascinating planetary ancestors. This book reviews major advances in 43 chapters that have been written and reviewed by a team of more than 200 international authorities in asteroids. It is aimed to be as comprehensive as possible while also remaining accessible to students and researchers who are interested in learning about these small but nonetheless important worlds. We hope this volume will serve as a leading reference on the topic of asteroids for the decade to come. We are deeply indebted to the many authors and referees for their tremendous efforts in helping us create Asteroids IV. We also thank the members of the Asteroids IV scientific organizing committee for helping us shape the structure and content of the book. The conference associated with the book, "Asteroids Comets Meteors 2014" held June 30-July 4, 2014, in Helsinki, Finland, did an outstanding job of demonstrating how much progress we have made in the field over the last decade. We are extremely grateful to our host Karri Muinonnen and his team. The editors are also grateful to the Asteroids IV production staff, namely Renée Dotson and her colleagues at the Lunar and Planetary Institute, for their efforts, their invaluable assistance, and their enthusiasm; they made life as easy and pleasant as possible for the editors, authors, and referees. They also thank Richard Binzel, the General Editor of the Space Science Series, for his strong support and advice during this process, as well as the staff at the University of Arizona Press. Finally, editor Patrick Michel would like to thank his wife Delphine, who married him on June 14, 2013, almost at the birth of the book process. He is grateful that she was willing to put up with him as he spent many of his nights and weekends working on the book. Thanks to her support, their trajectories are as bounded as a perfectly stable asteroid binary system, and this was probably the best way to experience from the start what her life would be like with a researcher! Co-editor Bottke would also like to thank his wife Veronica and his children Kristina-Marie, Laura, and Julie, who make up his own favorite asteroid family. Since Asteroids III, the size distribution of the family members has been steadily changing, and who knows how many tiny new members it will contain by Asteroids V! Co-editor DeMeo would like to thank her husband Alfredo for his support and encouragement throughout the process of creating this book. They met at the beginning of her career in research, becoming an asteroid pair and now continuing on the same orbit in life.

Doublet craters and the tidal disruption of binary asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melosh, H. J.; Stansberry, J. A.

1991-01-01

An evaluation is conducted of the possibility that the tidal disruption of a population of contact binary asteroids can account for terrestrial-impact 'doublet' craters. Detailed orbital integrations indicate that while such asteroids are often disrupted by tidal forces outside the Roche limit, the magnitude of the resulting separations is too small to account for the observed doublet craters. It is hypothesized that an initial population of km-scale earth-crossing objects encompassing 10-20 percent binaries must be responsible for doublet impacts, as may be verified by future observations of earth-approaching asteroids.

Stop hitting yourself: did most terrestrial impactors originate from the terrestrial planets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Alan; Asphaug, Erik; Elkins-Tanton, Linda

2014-11-01

Although the asteroid belt is the main source of impactors in the inner solar system today, it contains only 0.0006 Earth mass, or 0.05 Lunar mass. While the asteroid belt would have been more massive when it formed, it is unlikely to have had greater than 0.5 Lunar mass since the formation of Jupiter and the dissipation of the solar nebula. By comparison, giant impacts onto the terrestrial planets typically release debris equal to several per cent of the planets mass. The Moon-forming impact on Earth and the dichotomy forming impact on Mars, to consider but two of these major events, released 1.3 and 0.3 Lunar mass in debris respectively, many times the mass of the present day asteroid belt. This escaping impact debris is less long lived than the main asteroid belt, as it is injected on unstable, planet-crossing orbits, but this same factor also increases the impact probability with the terrestrial planets and asteroids. We show that as a result terrestrial ejecta played a major role in the impact history of the early inner solar system, and we expect the same is also likely to be true in other planetary systems.

Physical Characterization of the Near-Earth Object Population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Binzel, Richard P.

2003-01-01

This program seeks to address the fundamental question: What are the relationships between asteroids, comets, and meteorites? To answer this question, we are studying the population of asteroids near the Earth which likely contain both asteroids and extinct comets and which is the immediate source for meteorites. An analysis of new and existing visible wavelength spectral data for more than 100 (Near-Earth Objects) NEOs, and Keck albedo data for more than 20 NEOs is underway. New asteroid-meteorite links are being found, the NEO population and hazard is being characterized, and the extinct comet component is being constrained. These results are contained within the following publication work during the current period: 1 book, 2 book chapters, 1 published paper, 2 papers submitted, 2 papers in preparation, 1 Ph. D. thesis in preparation, and 7 meeting abstracts/presentations.

Deep Interior: Probing the Structure of Primitive Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asphaug, Erik; Scheeres, Daniel; Safaeinili, Ali

Deep Interior is a mature Discovery-class mission concept focused on probing the geophysical behavior of primitive bodies, from the mechanics of their exterior materials to the structures of their interiors. Its theme is to discover how small bodies work - to learn the natural origin and evolution of asteroids, comets and other primitive bodies through radar reflection tomography and through detailed observations of the local and global effects of cratering. Learning the structure and mechanical response of asteroids and comets is also a precursor to resource utilization and hazardous asteroid mitigation. Overall the mission is aligned with NASA strategic sub-goal 3C, to advance scientific knowledge of the origin and history of the solar system ... and the hazards and resources present as humans explore space. Deep Interior deploys no complex landers or sub-spacecraft; the scientific instruments are a radar and a camera. A blast cratering experiments triggered by grenades leads to a low cost seismological investigation which complements the radar investigation. A desired addition is an imaging spectrometer. The science instruments are high heritage, as are the navigation techniques for orbiting and station-keeping. The mission conducts the following investigations at one or more asteroids: Radar Reflection Tomography (RRT). The first science phase is to operate a penetrating radar during each several-month rendezvous, deployed in reflection mode in the manner of ongoing radar investigations underway by Mars Express, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and Kaguya. The RRT technique (Safaeinili et al., MAPS 2002) is analogous to performing a "CAT scan" from orbit: closely sampled radar echoes are processed to yield volumetric maps of mechanical and compositional boundaries, and to measure interior dielectric properties. Deep Interior utilizes a polar orbit (or station keeping) while the asteroid spins underneath; the result is to "peel the apple" with thousands of unique radar returns, providing global interior coverage. Camera images allow for the accurate reconstruction of spacecraft position at each radar acquisition. Radar flight heritage has been demonstrated by the MARSIS radar on Mars Express (Picardi et al., Science 2005; Plaut et al., Science 2007), the SHARAD radar onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (Seu et al., JGR 2007), and the LRS radar onboard Kaguya (Ono et al, EPS 2007). The Mars radars have discovered detailed subsurface structure to km depths in a variety of terrains; early results from Kaguya demonstrate its ability to detect structure to km depths in basaltic materials on the Moon. A reflection radar deployed in orbit about a primitive body will enjoy significant simplifying benefits compared to using the same instrument for Mars or lunar radar science: (1) The proximity of operations leads to a much higher signal to noise, +30 dB or more. (2) The lack of an ionosphere makes for far simpler data modeling and analysis, compared with what is being required at Mars. (3) The body is globally illuminated during every data acquisition and since the final processing is a fully coherent focused processing based on all available observations, it will remove any "clutter" ambiguities. Laboratory measurements of dielectric properties for a suite of meteorite materials (Heggy et al., LPSC 2007) show that a 10 MHz radar can penetrate a chondritic asteroid up to 5 km diameter, and a 100 MHz radar can penetrate a chondritic asteroid up to 1 km diameter. The dielectric properties of different meteorite types can be discriminated, allowing radar to be used for interior compositional analysis. The primary trade is higher definition navigation for higher-resolution imaging, presuming that penetration requirements are met. It appears reliable that a SHARAD-type radar can image the global interior of a chondritic asteroid up to several km diameter. Radar imaging might leave a number of key questions unanswered, and to directly probe the mechanical behavior of an asteroid we conclude each rendezvous by observing one or more explosion cratering experiments. Cratering (CRT). Cratering is the primary mode of geologic evolution of asteroids, and meteoroid impacts can trigger outbursts on cometary nuclei. The process is important to study for its own sake, and a cratering experiment offers three additional science benefits: (1) final crater diameter and morphology indicates the mechanical behavior of regolith and other exterior materials; (2) cratering exposes the subsurface for analysis of interior materials; and (3) cratering might trigger global reverberations that can be detected using before-and-after image comparisons of toppled boulders and landslides. Small cratering events may be of global consequence on small asteroids (Asphaug, MAPS, in press) and thus a grenade of only a few kg is likely to send a detectable resurfacing reverberation spanning the asteroid. This experiment thus serves as a low cost proxy for primitive body seismology. Global seismic response is quantified using techniques that have been developed on Earth based on estimates for the dynamical acceleration of preciariously balanced rocks (Brune et al., JGR 2003). Ideally the mission would have two cratering charges per rendezvous target, differing by ˜2 orders of magnitude in yield, to bracket local to global response. Cratering and landslide physics will also be studied in this novel microgravity setting, for the purpose of establishing scaling rules and addressing fundamental problems of dense granular flow. Moreover, many cubic meters of ejected regolith are exposed for analysis of size distribution, clast shape, spectral heterogeneity, and dynamics. In the case that the asteroid is metastable (e.g. a rapid rotator), the small cratering event might trigger a global avalanche, in which case Deep Interior will observe the formation of transitory debris disks or small moons (e.g. Scheeres et al., Science 2007). Hazards to the spacecraft from these blast events have been computed from scaling laws for crater ejecta mass-velocity distributions, and are found to be minimal when the spacecraft is a few km away. This hazard drops to zero if the spacecraft is below the horizon of the blast, because dust is cleared out by the solar wind in about a day. Long term debris (moonlets and rings) are easily avoided since stable orbits are dynamically constrained (Scheeres et al., Icarus 1996). Unforeseen impacts with orbiting debris would occur at only a few cm/s.

First known Terrestrial Impact of a Binary Asteroid from a Main Belt Breakup Event

PubMed Central

Ormö, Jens; Sturkell, Erik; Alwmark, Carl; Melosh, Jay

2014-01-01

Approximately 470 million years ago one of the largest cosmic catastrophes occurred in our solar system since the accretion of the planets. A 200-km large asteroid was disrupted by a collision in the Main Asteroid Belt, which spawned fragments into Earth crossing orbits. This had tremendous consequences for the meteorite production and cratering rate during several millions of years following the event. The 7.5-km wide Lockne crater, central Sweden, is known to be a member of this family. We here provide evidence that Lockne and its nearby companion, the 0.7-km diameter, contemporaneous, Målingen crater, formed by the impact of a binary, presumably ‘rubble pile’ asteroid. This newly discovered crater doublet provides a unique reference for impacts by combined, and poorly consolidated projectiles, as well as for the development of binary asteroids. PMID:25340551

Asteroid Impact Mission (aim) & Deflection Assessment: AN Opportunity to Understand Impact Dynamics and Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Fontaine, M.; Corral Van Damme, C.

2012-09-01

ESA's Future Preparation and Strategic Studies Office has carried out the Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) study with the objective of defining an affordable and fully independent mission element that ESA could contribute to an Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment campaign (AIDA), a joint effort of ESA, JHU/APL, NASA, OCA and DLR. The mission design foresees two independent spacecraft, one impactor (DART) and one rendezvous probe (AIM). The target of this mission is the binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos (1996 GT): one spacecraft, DART, would impact the secondary of the Didymos binary system while AIM would observe and measure any the change in the relative orbit. For this joint project, the timing of the experiment is set (maximum proximity of the target to Earth allowing for ground-based characterisation of the experiment) but the spacecraft are still able to pursue their missions fully independently. This paper describes in particular the AIM rendezvous mission concept.

Meteoroid impacts onto asteroids: A competitor for Yarkovsky and YORP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiegert, Paul A.

2015-05-01

The impact of a meteoroid onto an asteroid transfers linear and angular momentum to the larger body, which may affect its orbit and its rotational state. Here we show that the meteoroid environment of our Solar System can have an effect on small asteroids that is comparable to the Yarkovsky and Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effects under certain conditions. The momentum content of the meteoroids themselves is expected to generate an effect much smaller than that of the Yarkovsky effect. However, momentum transport by ejecta may increase the net effective force by one order of magnitude for iron or regolith surfaces, and two orders of magnitude for impacts into bare rock surfaces. The result is sensitive to the extrapolation of laboratory microcratering experiment results to real meteoroid-asteroid collisions and needs further study. If this extrapolation holds, then meteoroid impacts are more important to the dynamics of small rocky asteroids than had previously been considered. Asteroids orbiting on prograde orbits near the Earth encounter an anisotropic meteoroid environment, including a population of particles on retrograde orbits generally accepted to be material from long-period comets spiralling inwards under Poynting-Robertson drag. High relative speed (60 km s-1) impacts by meteoroids provide a small effective drag force that decreases asteroid semimajor axes and which is independent of their rotation pole. If small asteroids are bare instead of regolith covered, as is perhaps to be expected given their rapid rotation rates (Harris, A.W., Pravec, P. [2006]. In: Daniela, L., Sylvio Ferraz, M., Angel, F.J. (Eds.), Asteroids, Comets, Meteors. IAU Symposium, vol. 229, pp. 439-447), this effect may exceed the instantaneous Yarkovsky drift at sizes near and below one meter. Since one meter objects are the most abundant meteorite droppers at the Earth, the delivery of these important objects may be controlled by drag against the meteoroid environment. The rate of reorientation of asteroid spins is also substantially increased when momentum transport by ejecta is included. This has an indirect effect on the net Yarkovsky drift, particularly the diurnal variant, as the sign of the drift it creates depends on its rotational state. The net drift of an asteroid towards a resonance under the diurnal Yarkovsky effect can be slowed by more frequent pole reorientations or induced tumbling. This may make the effect of the meteoroid environment more important than the Yarkovsky effect at sizes even above one meter. Meteoroid impacts also affect asteroid spins at a level comparable to that of YORP at sizes smaller than tens of meters. Here the effect comes primarily from a small number of impacts by centimeter size particles. We conclude that recent measurements of the YORP effect have probably not been compromised, because of the targets' large sizes and because they are known or likely to be regolith-covered rather than bare rock. However, the effect of impacts increases sharply with decreasing size, and will likely become important for asteroids smaller than a few tens of meters in radius.

The Remote Observing Working Group for the Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivkin, A. S.; Pravec, P.; Thomas, C. A.; Thirouin, A.; Snodgrass, C.; Green, S.; Licandro, J.; Sickafoose, A. A.; Erasmus, N.; Howell, E. S.; Osip, D.; Thomas-Osip, J.; Moskovitz, N.; Scheirich, P.; Oszkiewicz, D.; Richardson, D. C.; Polishook, D.; Ryan, W. H.; Busch, M. W.

2017-09-01

The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) is a joint US-European mission concept designed to demonstrate the effectiveness of an kinetic impactor for planetary defense. Ground-based observing is a key component to AIDA and critical for its success. We present the observing campaign we have been conducting of the asteroid Didymos, the AIDA target, and plans for future work.

The future of planetary defense

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainzer, A.

2017-04-01

Asteroids and comets have impacted Earth in the past and will do so in the future. While the frequency of impacts is reasonably well understood on geologic timescales, it is difficult to predict the next sizeable impact on human timescales by extrapolation from population statistics alone. Fortunately, by identifying and tracking individual objects, we can make precise predictions of any potential close encounters with Earth. As more advance notice is provided, the range of possible mitigation options expands. While the chance of an impact is very small, the potential consequences can be severe, meaning that sensible risk reduction measures should be undertaken. By implementing surveys, the risk of an unforeseen impact can be greatly reduced: the first step is finding the objects. Fortunately, the worldwide community of professional and amateur astronomers has made significant progress in discovering large near-Earth objects (NEOs). More than 95% of NEOs capable of causing global devastation (objects larger than 1 km in diameter) have been discovered, and none of these pose an impact hazard in the near future. Infrastructure is in place to link observations and compute close approaches in real time. Interagency and international collaborations have been undertaken to strengthen cooperative efforts to plan potential mitigation and civil defense campaigns. Yet much remains to be done. Approximately 70% of NEOs larger than 140 m (large enough to cause severe regional damage) remain undiscovered. With the existing surveys, it will take decades to identify the rest. Progress can be accelerated by undertaking new surveys with improved sensitivity.