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Sample records for atlantic climate region

  1. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Impact on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey S.

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  2. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON NUTRIENT FLUXES IN STREAM FLOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of a national assessment process, researchers of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) are studying the impacts of climate variation and change on the natural and social systems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This poster presents research investigating climate impacts ...

  3. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON NUTRIENT FLUXES IN STREAM FLOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of a national assessment process, researchers of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) are studying the impacts of climate variation and change on the natural and social systems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This poster presents research investigating climate impacts ...

  4. IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

  5. IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

  6. Climate change and fire management in the mid-Atlantic region

    Treesearch

    Kenneth L. Clark; Nicholas Skowronski; Heidi Renninger; Robert. Scheller

    2014-01-01

    In this review, we summarize the potential impacts of climate change on wildfire activity in the mid-Atlantic region, and then consider how the beneficial uses of prescribed fire could conflict with mitigation needs for climate change, focusing on patters of carbon (C) sequestration by forests in the region. We use a synthesis of field studies, eddy flux tower...

  7. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study analyzes periodic variations in the climate of the mid-Atlantic Region over the last 100 years and uses general circulation models (GCMs) to project major climate trends for the next hundred years. Historical data include the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for th...

  8. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study analyzes periodic variations in the climate of the mid-Atlantic Region over the last 100 years and uses general circulation models (GCMs) to project major climate trends for the next hundred years. Historical data include the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for th...

  9. The potential impacts of climate change and variability on forests and forestry in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Treesearch

    Mary McKenney-Easterling; David R. DeWalle; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anthony R. Buda; Anthony R. Buda

    2000-01-01

    As part of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment, an evaluation is being made of the impacts of climate variability and potential future climate change on forests and forestry in the Mid-Atlantic Region. This paper provides a brief overview of the current status of forests in the region, and then focuses on 2 components of this evaluation: (1) modeling of the potential...

  10. Climate change in the circum-North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Peterson, Larry C.; Kipp, Nilva; Imbrie, John; Rind, David

    1989-01-01

    A survey of new and published palaeoclimate data indicates that both the high- and low-latitude North Atlantic regions were characterized by at least three synchronous periods of abrupt climate change during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition. Climate model results suggest that changes in the melting history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet may explain much of this nonlinear response of the climate system to astronomical (Milankovitch) forcing.

  11. Climate change in the circum-North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Peterson, Larry C.; Kipp, Nilva; Imbrie, John; Rind, David

    1989-01-01

    A survey of new and published palaeoclimate data indicates that both the high- and low-latitude North Atlantic regions were characterized by at least three synchronous periods of abrupt climate change during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition. Climate model results suggest that changes in the melting history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet may explain much of this nonlinear response of the climate system to astronomical (Milankovitch) forcing.

  12. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels o...

  13. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    Treesearch

    Marianne V. Moore; Michael L. Pace; John R. Mather; [and others; [Editor’s note: Patricia A. Flebbe is the SRS co-author for this publication.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests, and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and...

  14. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels o...

  15. VULNERABILITY OF ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, USA, TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Changes in the distribution of vegetation in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States were explored for two climate-change scenarios. The equilibrium vegetation ecology (EVE) model was used to project the distribution of life forms and to combine these into biomes for a doubl...

  16. VULNERABILITY OF ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, USA, TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Changes in the distribution of vegetation in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States were explored for two climate-change scenarios. The equilibrium vegetation ecology (EVE) model was used to project the distribution of life forms and to combine these into biomes for a doubl...

  17. Regional impacts of Atlantic Forest deforestation on climate and vegetation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holm, J. A.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2012-12-01

    The Brazilian Atlantic Forest was a large and important forest due to its high biodiversity, endemism, range in climate, and complex geography. The original Atlantic Forest was estimated to cover 150 million hectares, spanning large latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevation gradients. This unique environment helped contribute to a diverse assemblage of plants, mammals, birds, and reptiles. Unfortunately, due to land conversion into agriculture, pasture, urban areas, and increased forest fragmentation, only ~8-10% of the original Atlantic Forest remains. Tropical deforestation in the Americas can have considerable effects on local to global climates, and surrounding vegetation growth and survival. This study uses a fully coupled, global climate model (Community Earth System Model, CESM v.1.0.1) to simulate the full removal of the historical Atlantic Forest, and evaluate the regional climatic and vegetation responses due to deforestation. We used the fully coupled atmosphere and land surface components in CESM, and a partially interacting ocean component. The vegetated grid cell portion of the land surface component, the Community Landscape Model (CLM), is divided into 4 of 16 plant functional types (PFTs) with vertical layers of canopy, leaf area index, soil physical properties, and interacting hydrological features all tracking energy, water, and carbon state and flux variables, making CLM highly capable in predicting the complex nature and outcomes of large-scale deforestation. The Atlantic Forest removal (i.e. deforestation) was conducted my converting all woody stem PFTs to grasses in CLM, creating a land-use change from forest to pasture. By comparing the simulated historical Atlantic Forest (pre human alteration) to a deforested Atlantic Forest (close to current conditions) in CLM and CESM we found that live stem carbon, NPP (gC m-2 yr-1), and other vegetation dynamics inside and outside the Atlantic Forest region were largely altered. In addition to vegetation

  18. Climate Change in U.S. South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Fisheries Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roffer, M. A.; Hernandez, D. L.; Lamkin, J. T.; Pugliese, R.; Reichert, M.; Hall, C.

    2016-02-01

    A review of the recent evidence that climate change is affecting marine ecosystems in the U.S. fishery management zones of the South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean regions will be presented. This will include affects on the living marine resources (including fish, invertebrates, marine mammals and turtles), fisheries, habitat and people. Emphasis will be given on the effects that impact managed species and the likely new challenges that they present to fishery managers. The evidence is being derived from the results of the "Climate Variability and Fisheries Workshop: Setting Research Priorities for the Gulf of Mexico, South Atlantic, and Caribbean Regions," October 26-28, 2015 in St. Petersburg Beach, Florida. Commonalities and regional differences will be presented in terms of how climate variability is likely to impact distribution, catch, catchability, socioeconomics, and management.

  19. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper discusses the current status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems; how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential managemen...

  20. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper discusses the current status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems; how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential managemen...

  1. High-resolution Coupled Regional Climate Modeling in the Atlantic Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, J.; Patricola, C. M.; Chang, P.; Li, M.

    2011-12-01

    Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) that are used for centennial-scale climate projections typically lack sufficient horizontal resolution to properly resolve topographic features as well as fine-scale atmospheric and oceanic flow patterns that can have a significant impact on regional climate variability. A regional climate model can be used to carry out high-resolution climate simulations over specific regions on decadal timescales. Much of the research on regional climate modeling has been focused on the use of high-resolution uncoupled atmospheric models, but this approach neglects both the potential effects of air-sea feedbacks as well as the role of fine-scale oceanic phenomena, such as coastal upwelling, in regional climate variations. To address these omissions, we have developed a Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM), consisting of a high-resolution atmospheric model (WRF) coupled to a high-resolution ocean model (ROMS) in a region covering much of the Atlantic Ocean and surrounding continental areas. The two models use a common horizontal grid and exchange fluxes of momentum, heat, and freshwater every hour. We have carried out multi-year integrations using the CRCM at two different horizontal resolutions, 27km and 9km. We analyze tropical Atlantic variability in the CRCM simulations, focusing in particular on the statistics of simulated hurricanes, and the impact of air-sea interaction on the hurricane simulations. The CRCM produces fairly realistic hurricane activity, but with maximum intensities weaker than observations. To isolate the effect of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, we have also carried out a number of uncoupled (atmosphere-only) simulations of hurricane evolution initialized with "perfect initial conditions" obtained from the coupled integration, but using persisted sea surface temperatures as the surface boundary condition. Preliminary comparisons of the coupled and uncoupled simulations of hurricane evolution indicate that air

  2. North Atlantic Oscillation-related climate variability in a regional atmospheric model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Previdi, Michael; Veron, Dana E.

    2005-08-01

    Climate variability over the Greenland ice sheet associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is simulated with the Polar MM5 (PMM5) regional climate model (RCM). Two five-member monthly ensembles, each representative of high or low NAO extremes, are made, with data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA-40) used to provide the forcing for the RCM runs. Ensemble differences between the high and low NAO cases are discussed, and model output is compared to ERA-40 and to observations from automatic weather stations over Greenland. PMM5 is shown to reproduce several well-known features of NAO-related climate variability in the Greenland region, including colder near-surface air temperatures, lower sea level pressure, stronger westerly winds south of Greenland, and reduced precipitation over western Greenland and the Labrador Sea during high NAO months.

  3. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  4. Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, J.; Hoerling, M. P.; Folland, C. K.

    INTRODUCTION WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT REGIONAL - CLIMATE? WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS THAT GOVERN NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION VARIABILITY? Atmospheric Processes Ocean Forcing of the Atmosphere CONCLUDING COMMENTS ON THE OTHER ASPECTS OF NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE - VARIABILITY REFERENCES

  5. Phase Variability of the Recent Climate in the North Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Anisimov, Mikhail; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri; Sidorova, Alexandra

    2014-05-01

    The atmospheric pressure and near-surface temperature differences between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low for the period of 1900-2012 within the spatial-temporal average-out (20º latitude, 20º longitude and 12 years) were considered. The secular term of phase states of the system under consideration was found to divide into three non-intersecting subsets. Each of that was put in consequence with one of three climatic scenarios related to the periods of 1905-1935 (relatively warm phase), 1940-1970 (colder phase) and 1980-2000 (warmer phase). A life time of such a scenario lasted about 20-35 years, and the transition from one scenario to another covered 4-6 years, i.e. it run comparatively quickly. The revealed non-overlapping sub-aggregates of the thermodynamic indices related to each particular climate scenario gave an idea to follow the circulation peculiarities and the interrelated temperature differences within the limits of the Northern Atlantic ocean-atmosphere regional system. The results of this analysis bear evidence that the most probable intermittent strengthening and weakening of Hadley and Ferrell circulations occurred there in coincided phase. The analogous character of the climate system behavior was also detected in some other regional atmospheric activity centers that can be considered as a witness on the global nature of the detected phase type of modern climate inter-decadal variability. Hence, we have the grounds to suppose that mentioned above the short-period inter-decadal excitations of the modern climate have a global nature and appears everywhere. Finally, the attention was paid to the fact that at the early XXI century the thermodynamic state of the Northern Atlantic regional climate system has shown a tendency to face towards the situation, similar to the cooler scenario of the 1940-1970. We used the heat content of upper 700m Atlantic Ocean layer data from NODC to calculate its anomalies for the periods of 1955-1970, 1980-2000 and

  6. Latest Cretaceous climatic and environmental change in the South Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woelders, L.; Vellekoop, J.; Kroon, D.; Smit, J.; Casadío, S.; Prámparo, M. B.; Dinarès-Turell, J.; Peterse, F.; Sluijs, A.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Speijer, R. P.

    2017-05-01

    Latest Maastrichtian climate change caused by Deccan volcanism has been invoked as a cause of mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary ( 66.0 Ma). Yet late Maastrichtian climate and ecological changes are poorly documented, in particular on the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present upper Maastrichtian-lower Danian climate and biotic records from the Bajada del Jagüel (BJ) shelf site (Neuquén Basin, Argentina), employing the TEX86 paleothermometer, marine palynology (dinoflagellate cysts), and micropaleontology (foraminifera). These records are correlated to the astronomically tuned Ocean Drilling Program Site 1262 (Walvis Ridge). Collectively, we use these records to assess climatic and ecological effects of Deccan volcanism in the Southern Atlantic region. Both the TEX86-based sea surface temperature (SST) record at BJ and the bulk carbonate δ18O-based SST record of Site 1262 show a latest Maastrichtian warming of 2.5-4°C, at 450 to 150 kyr before the K-Pg boundary, coinciding with the a large Deccan outpouring phase. Benthic foraminiferal and dinocyst assemblage changes indicate that this warming resulted in enhanced runoff and stratification of the water column, likely resulting from more humid climate conditions in the Neuquén Basin. These climate conditions could have been caused by an expanding and strengthening thermal low over the South American continent. Biotic changes in response to late Maastrichtian environmental changes are rather limited, when compared to the major turnovers observed at many K-Pg boundary sites worldwide. This suggests that environmental perturbations during the latest Maastrichtian warming event were less severe than those following the K-Pg boundary impact.

  7. Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

    This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical

  8. Climate variability: The Atlantic's internal drum beat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2017-07-01

    The North Atlantic region experiences climate variability on a range of timescales. A climate reconstruction suggests that large-magnitude, multidecadal internal variability was a robust feature over the past 1,200 years.

  9. Assessing the link between Atlantic Niño 1 and drought over West Africa using CORDEX regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adeniyi, Mojisola Oluwayemisi; Dilau, Kabiru Alabi

    2016-12-01

    The skill of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models (ARPEGE, CCLM, HIRHAM, RACMO, REMO, PRECIS, RegCM3, RCA, WRF and CRCM) in simulating the climate (precipitation, temperature and drought) of West Africa is determined using a process-based metric. This is done by comparing the CORDEX models' simulated and observed correlation coefficients between Atlantic Niño Index 1 (ATLN1) and the climate over West Africa. Strong positive correlation is observed between ATLN1 and the climate parameters at the Guinea Coast (GC). The Atlantic Ocean has Niño behaviours through the ATLN indices which influence the climate of the tropics. Drought has distinct dipole structure of correlation with ATLN1 (negative at the Sahel); precipitation does not have distinct dipole structure of correlation, while temperature has almost a monopole correlation structure with ATLN1 over West Africa. The magnitude of the correlation increases with closeness to the equatorial eastern Atlantic. Correlations between ATLN1 and temperature are mostly stronger than those between ATLN1 and precipitation over the region. Most models have good performance over the GC, but ARPEGE has the highest skill at GC. The PRECIS is the most skilful over Savannah and RCA over Sahel. These models can be used to downscale the projected climate at the region of their highest skill.

  10. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #34: PUBLICATION OF FACT SHEET BY EPA REGION 3, "HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION?"

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's Global Change Research Program is pleased to announce the publication of a fact sheet entitled, "How Will Climate Change Affect the Mid-Atlantic Region?." This information sheet was prepared and published by EPA's Region 3 office. It summarizes key findings from the Mid-Atl...

  11. Regional seesaw between the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas during the last glacial abrupt climate events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wary, Mélanie; Eynaud, Frédérique; Swingedouw, Didier; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Matthiessen, Jens; Kissel, Catherine; Zumaque, Jena; Rossignol, Linda; Jouzel, Jean

    2017-06-01

    Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations constitute one of the most enigmatic features of the last glacial cycle. Their cold atmospheric phases have been commonly associated with cold sea-surface temperatures and expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Here, based on dinocyst analyses from the 48-30 ka interval of four sediment cores from the northern Northeast Atlantic and southern Norwegian Sea, we provide direct and quantitative evidence of a regional paradoxical seesaw pattern: cold Greenland and North Atlantic phases coincide with warmer sea-surface conditions and shorter seasonal sea-ice cover durations in the Norwegian Sea as compared to warm phases. Combined with additional palaeorecords and multi-model hosing simulations, our results suggest that during cold Greenland phases, reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and cold North Atlantic sea-surface conditions were accompanied by the subsurface propagation of warm Atlantic waters that re-emerged in the Nordic Seas and provided moisture towards Greenland summit.

  12. Response of Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity to Suppression of African Easterly Waves in a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, C. M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Atlantic tropical cyclones and African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked on the synoptic timescale, with about 85% of observed major Atlantic hurricanes originating from AEWs (e.g., Landsea et al. 1993). However, the influence of variability in AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is not fully understood; a positive correlation between AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity exists on the interannual timescale during just some periods of the observational record (e.g., Thorncroft and Hodges, 2001; Hopsch et al. 2007). This study investigates the impact of AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using regional climate model simulations in which AEWs were either prescribed or removed through the lateral boundary condition (LBC). The control simulation (10-member ensemble) was run at 27 km resolution and used 6-hourly LBCs from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and daily NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) V2 sea surface temperature (SST) from the year 2005. In the experiment AEWs were suppressed by filtering 2-10 day variability over tropical latitudes from the eastern LBC, located along the west coast of the Sahel. The difference in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency was insignificant between the simulations in which AEWs were prescribed versus suppressed, indicating that AEWs are not necessary to maintain climatological tropical cyclone frequency even though tropical cyclones readily originate from these features. This further implies that seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency is uninfluenced by variability in AEWs, and that the value of AEW variability as a predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclones is limited to the weekly timescale. However in response to filtering AEWs, accumulated cyclone energy significantly increased by about 15% of the control simulation mean and the spatial pattern of track density shifted in association with changes in steering winds. This suggests the importance of AEWs in impacting tropical cyclone

  13. An Investigation of the Relationship between the Components of School Climate and Leadership Behaviors on Student Achievement: Urban School Districts in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collins, Karmen J.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research study was to investigate the relationship between the components of school climate and leadership behaviors on student achievement in an urban school district in the mid-atlantic region. School climate and leadership behaviors for the participating school districts was determined by the School Climate Survey (Corner…

  14. An Investigation of the Relationship between the Components of School Climate and Leadership Behaviors on Student Achievement: Urban School Districts in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collins, Karmen J.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research study was to investigate the relationship between the components of school climate and leadership behaviors on student achievement in an urban school district in the mid-atlantic region. School climate and leadership behaviors for the participating school districts was determined by the School Climate Survey (Corner…

  15. Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

    SciTech Connect

    Saravanan, Ramalingam

    2015-01-09

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

  16. Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez, Jorge; Menendez, Melisa; Mendez, Fernando J.; Losada, Inigo J.

    2014-11-01

    One of the main sources of uncertainty in estimating climate projections affected by global warming is the choice of the global climate model (GCM). The aim of this study is to evaluate the skill of GCMs from CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region. It is well known that the seasonal and interannual variability of surface inland variables (e.g. precipitation and snow) and ocean variables (e.g. wave height and storm surge) are linked to the atmospheric circulation patterns. Thus, an automatic synoptic classification, based on weather types, has been used to assess whether GCMs are able to reproduce spatial patterns and climate variability. Three important factors have been analyzed: the skill of GCMs to reproduce the synoptic situations, the skill of GCMs to reproduce the historical inter-annual variability and the consistency of GCMs experiments during twenty-first century projections. The results of this analysis indicate that the most skilled GCMs in the study region are UKMO-HadGEM2, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC3.2(hires) for CMIP3 scenarios and ACCESS1.0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES and CMCC-CM for CMIP5 scenarios. These models are therefore recommended for the estimation of future regional multi-model projections of surface variables driven by the atmospheric circulation in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region.

  17. Abrupt climate variability in the North Atlantic region: Did the icebergs do it?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barker, S.; Chen, J.; Gong, X.; Jonkers, L.; Knorr, G.; Thornalley, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    We present high resolution records of temperature and ice rafted debris over the last ~440Kyr from a sediment core retrieved from the NE Atlantic. Our records reveal that episodes of ice rafting typically occurred after abrupt cooling at the site. Because the site is sensitive to the earliest phases of ice rafting as recorded by other sites across the wider Atlantic, this suggests that icebergs were not the trigger for North Atlantic cold events. Moreover we find a different relationship between cooling and the arrival of rafted ice at a site ~750km to the SE of ours. We suggest that asynchronous cooling between these locations can be explained by the more gradual southward migration of the North Atlantic polar front. We describe a mechanism that can explain the occurrence of abrupt stadial events over Greenland as a non-linear response as regional cooling continues beyond the threshold necessary for sustaining ocean circulation in its 'warm' mode with active convection north of Iceland. Thus while the freshwater derived from melting icebergs may provide a positive feedback for enhancing and prolonging stadial conditions, it is probably not the trigger for northern stadial events.

  18. Latest Cretaceous Climatic and Environmental Change in the South Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woelders, L.; Vellekoop, J.; Smit, J.; Kroon, D.; Casadío, S.; Prámparo, M.; Dinarès-turell, J.; Peterse, F.; Sluijs, A.; Speijer, R. P.

    2016-12-01

    It is generally assumed that the Chicxulub impact resulted in the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary mass extinction ( 66 Ma). However, there is continuing debate about the contribution of latest Maastrichtian climate changes, possibly caused by Deccan volcanism, to this mass extinction event. This debate is complicated because of the lack of high quality latest Maastrichtian climatological and ecological reconstructions. Here we present an astronomically tuned late Maastrichtian - early Danian record of bulk carbonate δ18O, a proxy record of sea surface temperature (SST), from Southern Atlantic Ocean Drilling Program Site 1262 (Walvis Ridge) and a late Maastrichtian TEX86 sea surface temperature record from the Bajada del Jagüel site in the Neuquén Basin (Argentina). The combination of these inferred temperature records with foraminiferal and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) data from Bajada del Jagüel allows to reconstruct environmental changes across this time interval in a mid-latitude, Southern Atlantic setting. Our results show that latest Maastrichtian warming of 2.5-4°C started gradually around 66.7 Ma, culminating in the interval between 450 to 150 kyr before the K-Pg boundary. Highest temperatures occurred 200 kyr before the K-Pg boundary. During the last 150 kyr of the Maastrichtian, the temperature trend reversed again at both sites. Benthic foraminiferal and dinocyst assemblage changes indicate that late Maastrichtian warming resulted in more humid climate conditions in the Neuquén basin, causing enhanced runoff and stratification of the water column. Vice versa, the subsequent cooling induced again a drier climate in the basin, resulting in reduced salinity stratification and better ventilation of the basin. We conclude that late Maastrichtian climate and sea level change caused distinct environmental perturbations in the Neuquén basin, although it remains uncertain to which extent late Maastrichtian climatological changes

  19. Holocene sea surface temperatures in the East African Coastal Current region and their relationship with North Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhnert, Henning; Kuhlmann, Holger; Mohtadi, Mahyar; Pätzold, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    The East African Coastal Current (EACC) is one of the western boundary currents of the Indian Ocean and represents the only pathway for southern water masses to enter the Arabian Sea. Today, sea surface temperatures (SST) in the western boundary currents region covary with those in large parts of the central tropical Indian Ocean. The latter play an important role in global climate by influencing the mean state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and associated Atlantic SST anomalies (Hoerling et al., 2001). In the EACC region paleoclimate data are sparse and its Holocene temperature history is unexplored. We present data from a 5 m long sediment core retrieved off northern Tanzania where the EACC flows northward year-round. Proximity to the Pangani River mouth provides a steady sediment supply. We have reconstructed SST from Mg/Ca and stable oxygen isotope ratios (^18O) of the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera species Globigerinoides ruber (sensu stricto). Our record spans the time period from 9700 to 1400 years BP at an average temporal resolution of 40 years. The Holocene is characterized by a sequence of intervals representing cool, warm, cool, and intermediate SST, with boundaries at 7.8, 5.6, and 4.4 ka BP. SST anomalies relative to the series mean range from -0.6 to +0.75 ° C. This pattern strikingly resembles a Northwest Atlantic foraminiferal ^18O record (Cléroux et al., 2012), with warm Indian SST corresponding to low Atlantic foraminiferal ^18O (indicating low sea surface density). This matches the modern situation on the interdecadal time-scale, where a warm Indian Ocean leads to a shift of the NAO towards a positive mean state, which is accompanied by SST warming over much of the low- and mid-latitude western Atlantic and a displacement of the Gulf Stream path. We hypothesize that this mechanism also operates on millennial time-scales to explain the obvious similarities in the SST patterns observed in the Northwest Atlantic and western

  20. An evaluation of a coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling system for regional climate studies: extreme events in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mooney, Priscilla A.; Mulligan, Frank J.

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the ability of a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean modelling system to simulate two extreme events in the North Atlantic. In this study we use the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST; Warner et al.) modelling system with only the atmosphere and ocean models activated. COAWST couples the atmosphere model (Weather Research and Forecasting model; WRF) to the ocean model (Regional Ocean Modelling System; ROMS) with the Model Coupling Toolkit. Results from the coupled system are compared with atmosphere only simulations of North Atlantic storms to evaluate the performance of the coupled modelling system. Two extreme events (Hurricane Katia and Hurricane Irene) were chosen to assess the level of improvement (or otherwise) arising from coupling WRF with ROMS. These two hurricanes involve different dynamics and present different challenges to the modeling system. This provides a robust assessment of the advantages or disadvantages of coupling WRF with ROMS for regional climate modelling studies of extreme events in the North Atlantic. We examine the ability of the coupled modelling system to simulate these two extreme events by comparing modelled storm tracks, storm intensities, wind speeds and sea surface temperatures with observations in all cases. The effect of domain size, and two different planetary boundary layers used in WRF are also reported.

  1. Late Pleistocene spread of (cool-)temperate forests in Northeast China and climate changes synchronous with the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stebich, Martina; Mingram, Jens; Han, Jingtai; Liu, Jiaqi

    2009-01-01

    The results presented here from the annually laminated sedimentary sequence of Sihailongwan lake provide the first comprehensive palaeoecological record covering the Late Pleniglacial to the Early Holocene (16,700-10,600 cal yrs. BP) from Northeast China. High-resolution pollen analyses have enabled the vegetational and climatic changes of the last glacial-interglacial transition to be reconstructed in more detail than has been previously possible. Moreover, a reliable chronology has been provided by both varve counting and 40 calibrated AMS 14C age determinations. Palaeobotanical evidence indicates predominantly steppe and open taiga-like woodland communities, with abundant Betula, Larix, Alnus fruticosa, Artemisia, grasses and sedges, which are typical of cold and dry conditions between 16,700 and 14,450 cal yrs. BP. The beginning expansion of Ulmus and Fraxinus marks the onset of the Late-glacial climatic amelioration at 14,450 cal yrs. BP. Dense deciduous forests, predominantly consisting of thermophilous broadleaf taxa, become established and widespread during the Early Holocene. Two short-term climatic reversals to colder and/or dryer conditions are recorded in the proxy data between 13,900 and 13,800 cal yrs. BP and 13,100 and 12,900 cal yrs. BP, correlating with the Oldest Dryas/Greenland Interstadial (GI) 1d event and the Gerzensee/Killarney/GI-1b oscillation, respectively. The prominent reappearance of Picea and Larix, coupled with a marked decrease in broadleaved trees, prior to the start of the Holocene, implies a climatic reversal compatible with the Younger Dryas event in the circum-Atlantic region. The evident synchroneity of climate changes in the North Atlantic region and East Asia supports the theory of strong atmospheric coupling between both regions.

  2. On the influence of multi-decadal North Atlantic climate variations on drought occurrence in the European Greater Alpine Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haslinger, Klaus; Schöner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    The development of drought is characterized by an evolving precipitation deficit taking place on different spatial and temporal scales. As recent studies show, meteorological drought characteristics, like intensity, seasonality and severity, exhibit multi-decadal changes. Internal variations of the climate system and the associated changes of dominant weather regimes are therefore considered the main driver of these drought features. In this study we analyze the connection between drought characteristics and large scale atmospheric and oceanic modes particularly those of the North Atlantic which are heavily influencing European climate. We use the dataset of Haslinger and Blöschl (2017) which consists of a collection of meteorological drought events occurring in the European Greater Alpine Region (GAR) over the past 210 years. Every event is determined by an extent in space and time and certain attributes as duration, intensity, temperature anomaly, region of most impact etc. In addition the monthly time series of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index (AMO) are used. Preliminary results show that late winter and spring droughts are associated with a positive phase of the NAO, which is particularly the case for the more continentally and Mediterranean influenced areas of the GAR. A regression analysis of the 30-year running mean NAO Index and drought intensities reveal a strong connection (r2 = 0.7) from 1820 until 1960. However, afterwards the correlation drops significantly (r2 = 0.3). This abrupt change might indicate a general regime shift considering long-term precipitation characteristics in the GAR. Haslinger K. and G Blöschl (2017): Space-time patterns of meteorological drought events in the European Greater Alpine Region, in preparation for Water Resources Research.

  3. Impact of the Gulf Stream SST front on North Atlantic climate variability: a high-resolution regional model study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsieh, J.; Li, M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    2011-12-01

    The inability of the current generation of global climate models to realistically resolve the Gulf Stream separation from the east coast of the North America leads to improper representation of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) front in these models, which further impacts the modeled climate variability. To evaluate the impact of this misrepresented SST front on the overlying atmosphere, ensembles of high-resolution regional atmospheric model simulations are carried out, forced with SST simulated by an intermediate resolution and a high-resolution regional ocean model. It is found that the difference in the representation of the Gulf Stream separation between the two ocean model simulations has a significant impact on the climatologies of regional precipitation, stormtracks, and even the remote large-scale mean background states. As the simulation of the Gulf Stream separation improves with the increase in the ocean model resolution, the associated shift in the SST front causes a northward shift of the winter storm track in upper levels as the synoptic disturbances propagate eastward. Moreover, a trough at low levels originates near the warm SST associated with the Gulf Stream separation and a strong anomalous ridge forms far downstream near the northeastern Atlantic and West Europe, which leads to a weaker subtropical jet near this region. These results support the notion of active frontal-scale air-sea interactions along the Gulf Stream Extension and highlight the importance of resolving frontal-scale structures along western boundary currents in climate models.

  4. Final Report on Hierarchical Coupled Modeling and Prediction of Regional Climate Change in the Atlantic Sector

    SciTech Connect

    Saravanan, Ramalingam

    2011-10-30

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: a) Carried out studies of climate changes in the past using a hierarchy of intermediate coupled models (Chang et al., 2008; Wan et al 2009; Wen et al., 2010a,b) b) Completed the development of a Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM; Patricola et al., 2011a,b) c) Carried out studies testing hypotheses testing the origin of systematic errors in the CRCM (Patricola et al., 2011a,b) d) Carried out studies of the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, in the context of barrier layer interactions (Balaguru et al)

  5. The Atlantic Climate Change Program

    SciTech Connect

    Molinari, R.L. ); Battisti, D. ); Bryan, K. ); Walsh, J. )

    1994-07-01

    The Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) is a component of NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program. ACCP is directed at determining the role of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean on global atmospheric climate. Efforts and progress in four ACCP elements are described. Advances include (1) descriptions of decadal and longer-term variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system of the North Atlantic; (2) development of tools needed to perform long-term model runs of coupled simulations of North Atlantic air-sea interaction; (3) definition of mean and time-dependent characteristics of the thermohaline circulation; and (4) development of monitoring strategies for various elements of the thermohaline circulation. 20 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Climatic trends in the North Atlantic region during the last 2,000 years in an orbitally forced AOGCM simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.

    2013-12-01

    The global coverage of temporal highly resolved proxy-based climate reconstructions is extending to cover the last 2,000 years. It is thus important to fully understand the effect of the orbital forcing at these time scales, as the imprint of the orbital forcing becomes clearer when analyzing climate on time scales longer than the last 1,000 years. The slow-varying orbital parameters affect the seasonal distribution of the incoming solar radiation. Although changes are not as pronounced compared to the mid-Holocene, still distinct differences exist, with lower insolation between February and May and higher insolation between July and October over the mid- and high northern latitudes 2,000 years ago compared to present. Here, we analyze a simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G forced only with changes in orbital variations for the last 2,000 years. Other factors such as solar activity and greenhouse gas changes are set to constant pre-industrial values. The modeled near-surface temperature trends reflect the expected orbitally induced insolation trends over the northern hemispheric continents and the Arctic, with increased temperatures during May and reduced temperatures during October. Over the North Atlantic Ocean, however SST trends are not directly consistent to changes in orbital forcing throughout the year, mostly showing little or slight uniform cooling trends. The strength of the maximum overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean also shows no clear-cut trends that can be linked to changes in external forcings. Other variables related to oceanic convection and surface heat fluxes indicate, however, spatially heterogeneous trend patterns. For example, regions south of Greenland and off Labrador show increases in convection that compensate the decreases over the Labrador and the Norwegian Sea. This pattern varies in intensity and spatial extent between the different winter half year months. Changes in oceanic convection and surface heat

  7. Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Jin, Jiming

    2015-07-01

    This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical-extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the

  8. Contribution of the North Atlantic Subtropical High to Regional Climate Model (RCM) Skill in Simulating Southeastern United States Summer Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, L.; Li, W.; Jin, J.

    2014-12-01

    This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating Southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show large biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western ridge. In WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7-deg northwestward compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated precipitation according to the "NASH western ridge - Southeast summer precipitation" relationship. Experiments utilizing the Four Dimensional Data Assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. The changes in tropical convecton induce a tropical-extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the precipitation biases over the SE US

  9. Differences in questing tick species distribution between Atlantic and continental climate regions in Spain.

    PubMed

    Barandika, J F; Olmeda, S A; Casado-Nistal, M A; Hurtado, A; Juste, R A; Valcárcel, F; Anda, P; García-Pérez, A L

    2011-01-01

    Climate and vegetation in Spain vary from north to south, affecting tick distribution and consequently the presence of tick-borne diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate throughout a 2-yr study the distribution of the different exophilic questing tick species present in 18 areas: eight located in central and 10 in northern Spain. The same methodology was used in both areas, sampling vegetation on a monthly basis by blanket dragging for 20- to 30-min intervals. A total of 12 species belonging to the genera Ixodes, Haemaphysalis, Rhipicephalus, Dermacentor, and Hyalomma was identified. Differences in species distribution and prevalence were dramatically different. The most frequent and abundant species in northern Spain were Ixodes ricinus (67% of adult ticks) and Haemaphysalis punctata (8%), whereas Hyalomma lusitanicum (86%) and Dermacentor marginatus (12%) were the most abundant in central Spain. There were important differences in the monthly seasonal patterns for the different tick species. These results highlight important differences in tick distribution in neighboring areas and underline the need for ongoing surveillance programs to monitor tick population dynamics and the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens.

  10. Future Climate Subtropical Cyclones over the Northeastern Atlantic as Modelled by an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Aleman, J. J.; Gaertner, M. A.; Sanchez, E.; Romera, R.

    2016-12-01

    Subtropical cyclones (STCs) are low pressure systems that share common characteristics with extratropical and tropical cyclones. They can have an impact in the society as high as that of tropical cyclones or even hurricanes. In addition, STCs can become tropical cyclones through the tropical transition process.In this survey, we undertake the key issue of knowing if there will be a change in their frecuency of occurrence and/or their intensitiy, since they can be affected by Climate Change due to a possible alteration of their environment of formation. This work is developed thanks to the ESCENA project from Spain, in which relatively high resolution RCMs (25 km) nested on GCMs are used to simulate future climate conditions in the Northeastern Atlatic basin and southwestern Europe. In this way, STCs can be studied for the first time in future conditions since they are governed by both synoptic (cutoff lows) and mesoscale (convecton) processes that actual GCMs could not represent well.

  11. How the Mediterranean and subtropical Atlantic (Gulf of Cadiz) SST gradient increased in the Pliocene (2.5 - 6 Ma) - implications for regional and global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzanova, A.; Herbert, T.; Peterson, L.

    2013-12-01

    The hydrological budget of the Mediterranean Sea results in the very salty and dense Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) flowing beneath the incoming Atlantic waters and into the deep North Atlantic through the Gulf of Cadiz. MOW has the potential to influence global climate on long timescales, as it is a salt source for deep-water formation in the North Atlantic. The intensity of MOW formation is in part governed by the temperature and salinity differences between the Mediterranean and Atlantic. Here we present alkenone-based, sea surface temperature (SST) record from the recent IODP Expedition 339 to the Gulf of Cadiz reconstructing conditions between ~2.5 Ma and ~6 Ma. IODP Expedition 339 in 2012 was the first time the Gulf of Cadiz has been systematically drilled for scientific study. We combine these new measurements with alkenone SST determinations from Pliocene sequences outcropping in the Mediterranean. We present a comparison of the evolution of Pliocene SST gradients between the inflowing Atlantic waters and waters in the central Mediterranean. During the Pliocene, the surface waters of the Gulf of Cadiz were as much as 7°C warmer than modern. The reconstructed temperatures show a ~1°C cooling for the Atlantic side of the Strait of Gibraltar over the span of the record. Between ~2.5 and ~3.5 Ma the Mediterranean and Atlantic surface waters show comparable temperatures analogous to the modern gradient between the sites. Surprisingly, between ~3.5 Ma and ~6 Ma the Gulf of Cadiz remained warm and stable while the Mediterranean cooled rapidly resulting in a large ~3°C gradient. This shift corresponds to a time period when the Mediterranean Sea is largely devoid of sapropels. The absence of sapropels suggests low freshwater input into the basin and the new SST data shows the added importance of temperature in inducing circulation changes in the Mediterranean. In conjunction with existing stable isotope and SST data for the Mediterranean Sea the new data from

  12. Modeling the Effects of Sahara Dust on the Climate and Water Cycle of the Tropical Atlantic/Caribbean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, W. K.; Kim, K.

    2006-12-01

    We have investigated the direct effects of air-borne dust particles generated by dust storm over the Sahara desert on the water cycle of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean region using the NASA finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM). Global aerosol forcings are computed from radiative transfer functions derived from global distributions of five species of aerosols, i.e., dust, black carbon, organic carbon, sulphate and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. Comparing fvGCM experiments without aerosol forcing, and with different combinations of aerosol forcing, we evaluate the impacts of aerosol direct heating on the onset, maintenance and evolution of the South American summer monsoon. We find that during the boreal summer, Saharan dust contribute to substantial heating of the atmosphere over the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic/Africa region through the "elevated heat pump" (EHP) mechanism, which works as follows. Absorption of solar radiation by the upper portion of the thick dust layer causes heating of the middle atmosphere, while the blocking of solar radiation by dust reduces surface solar radiation and leads to cooling over the desert land surface. When the dust layer is sufficiently thick, heating by the elevated portion of dust layer produces a pressure gradient in the mid-troposphere between the dust layer and the surrounding clean air. The pressure gradient draws in low level anomalous westerlies which brings in warm, moist air from the central and western Atlantic. The warm, moist air flows eastward, and rises above the cold surface air as they approach the West Africa continent, and converges in the middle troposphere to produce anomalous rain over the eastern Atlantic and West Africa coast. The latent heat of condensation from the increased rain causes more warm air to rise over the dust layer. Eventually, through the aforementioned aerosol heating and water cycle feedback, an anomalous Walker

  13. Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes

  14. Assessing the hydrological response from an ensemble of CMIP5 climate projections in the transition zone of the Atlantic region (Bay of Biscay)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meaurio, Maite; Zabaleta, Ane; Boithias, Laurie; Epelde, Ane Miren; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez-Pérez, Jose-Miguel; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Antiguedad, Iñaki

    2017-05-01

    The climate changes projected for the 21st century will have consequences on the hydrological response of catchments. These changes, and their consequences, are most uncertain in the transition zones. The study area, in the Bay of Biscay, is located in the transition zone of the European Atlantic region, where hydrological impact of climate change was scarcely studied. In order to address this scarcity, the hydrological impacts of climate change on river discharge were assessed. To do so, a hydrological modelling was carried out considering 16 climate scenarios that include 5 General Circulation Models (GCM) from the 5th report of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), 2 statistical downscaling methods and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways. Projections for future discharge (2011-2100) were divided into three 30-year horizons (2030s, 2060s and 2090s) and a comparison was made between these time horizons and the baseline (1961-2000). The results show that the downscaling method used resulted in a higher source of uncertainty than GCM itself. In addition, the uncertainties inherent to the methods used at all the levels do not affect the results equally along the year. In spite of those uncertainties, general trends for the 2090s predict seasonal discharge decreases by around -17% in autumn, -16% in spring, -11% in winter and -7% in summer. These results are in line with those predicted for the Atlantic region (France and the Iberian Peninsula). Trends for extreme flows were also analysed: the most significant show an increase in the duration (days) of low flows. From an environmental point of view, and considering the need to meet the objectives established by the Water Framework Directive (WFD), this will be a major challenge for the future planning on water management.

  15. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #17: PUBLICATION OF MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report, "Preparing for a Changing Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change - Mid-Atlantic Overview", summarizes the findings of the first Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment was led by a team from The Pennsylvani...

  16. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #17: PUBLICATION OF MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report, "Preparing for a Changing Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change - Mid-Atlantic Overview", summarizes the findings of the first Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment was led by a team from The Pennsylvani...

  17. Tephra constraints on Rapid Climate Events (TRACE): precise correlation of marine and ice-core records in the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, Siwan; Abbott, Peter; Bourne, Anna; Cook, Eliza; Griggs, Adam; Meara, Rhian

    2013-04-01

    Little has challenged our understanding of climate change more so than the abruptness with which large-scale shifts in temperature occurred during the last glacial period. Atmospheric temperature jumps occurring within decades over Greenland were closely matched by rapid changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and major re-organisation of the deep ocean circulation. Although these climatic instabilities are well-documented in various proxy records, the causal mechanisms of such short-lived oscillations remain poorly understood, largely due to the dating uncertainties that prevent the integration of different archives. Synchronisation of palaeoclimate records on a common timescale is inherently problematic, and unravelling the lead/lag responses (hence cause and effect) between the Earth's climate components is currently beyond our reach. TRACE - a 5 year project funded by the European Research Council - exploits the use of microscopic traces of volcanic events to precisely correlate the Greenland ice-cores with North Atlantic marine records. Tephrochronology has experienced a considerable step-change in recent years, with invisible layers of volcanic ash traced over much wider geographical regions than previously thought. What is more, recent work has identified new, previously unknown eruptions within both marine and ice-core records - several of which fall close to rapid climatic jumps imprinted in the proxy records. Here we draw upon examples of how these time-lines can be used to constrain the lead/lag responses between the atmospheric and oceanic systems during the last glacial period as well as some of the challenges that arise in the application of tephrochronology. Led by Swansea University, this project involves collaboration with groups at the University of Copenhagen, Aberystwyth University, Bangor University, University of St Andrews, Stockholm University, University of Tromsø and the University of East Anglia.

  18. Effects of Climate Change on Stormwater Capture Depths in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, I.; Moglen, G. E.; Hubacek, K.

    2014-12-01

    Increases in storm intensity and magnitude affects regional and local scale watershed hydrology and corresponding impacts. Information pertaining to the annual rainfall is valuable in flood mitigation and water quality concerns. The approach of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide onsite detention of various percentile capture depths stormwater management is examined here. Such information is pertinent to construct new or extend current undersized drainage infrastructures with consideration of future high intensity flood events which are anticipated to increase. In this study, the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate model (RCM) precipitation baseline (1973-2000) and future (2041-2070) data are used to generate annual 85% and 95% capture depths for Washington D.C.-Baltimore metropolitan area. The RCM data contain systematic biases and are therefore adjusted to produce appropriate estimates at the local scale. Depending on the adjustment technique used, the statistically transformed data leads to increased precipitation capture depths. In this study, several approaches: non-parametric, parametric, and modified parametric methods are employed for bias correction. Graphical comparisons of the adjustment techniques using National Climate Data Center (NCDC) and several model combinations (GCM+RCM) daily rainfall data are presented. Comparisons are made between NCDC daily rainfall and simulated (uncorrected and corrected) data to assess mean absolute error.

  19. Regional Climate Tutorial: Assessing Regional Climate Change and Its Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, E.; Fisher, A.

    2002-05-01

    Recent scientific progress now enables credible projections of global changes in climate over long time periods. But people will experience global climate change where they live and work, and have difficulty thinking of a future beyond their grandchildren's lifetime. Although the task of projecting climate change and its impacts is far more challenging for regional and relatively near-term time scales, these are the scales at which actions most easily can be taken to moderate negative impacts. This tutorial will summarize what is known about projecting changes in regional climate, and about assessing the impacts for sectors such as forests, agriculture, fresh water quantity and quality, coastal zones, human health, and ecosystems. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) is used to provide context and illustrate how adaptation within the region and feedback from other regions influence the impacts that might be experienced.

  20. A Regional Climate Mode Discovered in the North Atlantic: Dakar Niño/Niña.

    PubMed

    Oettli, Pascal; Morioka, Yushi; Yamagata, Toshio

    2016-01-07

    The interrannual variability of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies confined off Senegal is explored from a new viewpoint of the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The phenomenon may be classified into "coastal Niño/Niña" in the North Atlantic as discussed recently in the Northeastern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Oceans. The interannual variability of the regional mixed-layer temperature anomaly that evolves in boreal late fall and peaks in spring is associated with the alongshore wind anomaly, mixed-layer depth anomaly and cross-shore atmospheric pressure gradient anomaly, suggesting the existence of ocean-land-atmosphere coupled processes. The coupled warm (cold) event is named Dakar Niño (Niña). The oceanic aspect of the Dakar Niño (Niña) may be basically explained by anomalous warming (cooling) of the anomalously thin (thick) mixed-layer, which absorbs shortwave surface heat flux. In the case of Dakar Niña, however, enhancement of the entrainment at the bottom of the mixed-layer is not negligible.

  1. A Regional Climate Mode Discovered in the North Atlantic: Dakar Niño/Niña

    PubMed Central

    Oettli, Pascal; Morioka, Yushi; Yamagata, Toshio

    2016-01-01

    The interrannual variability of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies confined off Senegal is explored from a new viewpoint of the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The phenomenon may be classified into “coastal Niño/Niña” in the North Atlantic as discussed recently in the Northeastern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Oceans. The interannual variability of the regional mixed-layer temperature anomaly that evolves in boreal late fall and peaks in spring is associated with the alongshore wind anomaly, mixed-layer depth anomaly and cross-shore atmospheric pressure gradient anomaly, suggesting the existence of ocean-land-atmosphere coupled processes. The coupled warm (cold) event is named Dakar Niño (Niña). The oceanic aspect of the Dakar Niño (Niña) may be basically explained by anomalous warming (cooling) of the anomalously thin (thick) mixed-layer, which absorbs shortwave surface heat flux. In the case of Dakar Niña, however, enhancement of the entrainment at the bottom of the mixed-layer is not negligible. PMID:26739121

  2. Climatic variability in the Mediterranean region over the last 130 ka, sapropel formation and teleconnection with the North Atlantic and monsoon systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez Goñi, M. F.; Fletcher, W. J.; Landais, A.

    2009-04-01

    Since the identification of millennial-scale climatic variability in Greenland and the North Atlantic (Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) and Heinrich (H) events) several questions remain open regarding the expression of this variability in the Mediterranean region, the oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms involved and how other forcings such as orbital parameters affect this variability. Several high-resolution pollen-rich marine cores retrieved in the framework of the IMAGES and ODP programs and covering at least the last 50,000 years have been analysed in the last decade. An array of terrestrial and marine micropalaeontological (pollen, foraminifer), sedimentary (microcharcoal, ice rafted detritus) and geochemical (d18O and d13C) tracers from the same sample set has allowed us to establish a direct correlation between the evolution of the atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs. All the D-O events have a counterpart in western Mediterranean terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Cold sea surface temperatures (SST) were synchronous with the expansion of semi-desert landscapes indicating a decrease in winter precipitation likely related with the northward displacement of the westerlies. SST increases were contemporaneous with the expansion of this forest and, therefore, the establishment of the Mediterranean climate, i.e. wet and mild winters with warm and dry summers. The best expression of the Mediterranean climate occurred during the Eemian, D-O 24, 21, 17-16, 8-7, 1 and the Holocene. These maxima occurred always during precession minima (seasonality maxima). The comparison of Mediterranean and Atlantic terrestrial and marine palaeoclimatic records of the last glacial period with Greenland temperature changes reveals that the Mediterranean region is distinctly impacted by precession. The comparison of this contrasting latitudinal climatic scenario with the global methane record which is also modulated by precession during the last climatic cycle reveals that the amplitude of

  3. Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate.

    PubMed

    Sutton, Rowan T; Hodson, Daniel L R

    2005-07-01

    Recent extreme events such as the devastating 2003 European summer heat wave raise important questions about the possible causes of any underlying trends, or low-frequency variations, in regional climates. Here, we present new evidence that basin-scale changes in the Atlantic Ocean, probably related to the thermohaline circulation, have been an important driver of multidecadal variations in the summertime climate of both North America and western Europe. Our findings advance understanding of past climate changes and also have implications for decadal climate predictions.

  4. Potential Impact of North Atlantic Climate Variability on Ocean Biogeochemical Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Muhling, B.; Lee, S. K.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Enfield, D. B.; Lamkin, J. T.; Roffer, M. A.

    2016-02-01

    Previous studies have shown that upper ocean circulations largely determine primary production in the euphotic layers, here the global ocean model with biogeochemistry (GFDL's Modular Ocean Model with TOPAZ biogeochemistry) forced with the ERA-Interim is used to simulate the natural variability of biogeochemical processes in global ocean during 1979-present. Preliminary results show that the surface chlorophyll is overall underestimated in MOM-TOPAZ, but its spatial pattern is fairly realistic. Relatively high chlorophyll variability is shown in the subpolar North Atlantic, northeastern tropical Atlantic, and equatorial Atlantic. Further analysis suggests that the chlorophyll variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is affected by long-term climate variability. For the subpolar North Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is light-limited and is significantly correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation. A dipole pattern of chlorophyll variability is found between the northeastern tropical Atlantic and equatorial Atlantic. For the northeastern North Atlantic, the chlorophyll variability is significantly correlated with Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During the negative phase of AMM and AMO, the increased trade wind in the northeast North Atlantic can lead to increased upwelling of nutrients. In the equatorial Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is largely link to Atlantic-Niño and associated equatorial upwelling of nutrients. The potential impact of climate variability on the distribution of pelagic fishes (i.e. yellowfin tuna) are discussed.

  5. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omrani, N. E.; Thiéblemont, R. T.; Matthes, K. B.; Kodera, K.; Hansen, F.

    2016-02-01

    Quasi-decadal fluctuations of the Northern Atlantic climate have been mostly studied in the context of internal variability. The proposed mechanisms include the combined dynamical and thermodynamical oceanic feedback on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that can provide timescales longer than the short atmospheric memory. The quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has also been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship and its impact on the ocean circulation are, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here, we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes the intrinsic quasi-decadal variability of the NAO-ocean coupled system, simulated even without solar forcing. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

  6. Multidecadal variability and climate shift in the North Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seidov, Dan; Mishonov, Alexey; Reagan, James; Parsons, Rost

    2017-05-01

    Decadal variability of ocean heat content (OHC) and temperature trends over 60 years in the North Atlantic Ocean were analyzed using a new high-resolution ocean climatology based on quality-controlled historic in situ observations. Two 30 year ocean climates of 1955-1984 and 1985-2012 were compared to evaluate the climate shift in this region. The spatial distribution of the OHC climate shift is highly inhomogeneous, with the climate shift being the strongest southeast of the Gulf Stream Extension. This may be caused by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown in conjunction with heaving of warm subtropical water. The 30 year climate shift shows higher OHC gain in the Gulf Stream region than reported in shorter timescale estimates. The OHC change is generally coherent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. This coherence suggests that quasi-cyclicity of the OHC may exist, with a period of 60 to 80 years, superimposed on the slow basin-wide warming trend.

  7. Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mecking, J.; Hetzinger, S.; Halfar, J.; Keenlyside, N. S.; Kronz, A.; Steneck, R. S.; Adey, W. H.; Lebednik, P. A.

    2011-12-01

    Decadal- to multidecadal variability in the extra-tropical North Pacific is evident in 20th century instrumental records and has significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere climate and marine ecosystems. Several studies have discussed a potential linkage between North Pacific and Atlantic climate on various time scales. On decadal time scales no relationship could be confirmed, potentially due to sparse instrumental observations before 1950. Proxy data are limited and no multi-centennial high-resolution marine geochemical proxy records are available from the subarctic North Pacific. Here we present an annually-resolved record (1818-1967) of Mg/Ca variations from a North Pacific/ Bering Sea coralline alga that extends our knowledge in this region beyond available data. It shows for the first time a statistically significant link between decadal fluctuations in sea-level pressure (SLP) in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The record is a lagged proxy for decadal-scale variations of the Aleutian Low. It is significantly related to regional sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in late boreal winter on these time scales. Our data show that on decadal time scales a weaker Aleutian Low precedes a negative NAO by several years. This atmospheric link can explain the coherence of decadal North Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), as suggested by earlier studies using climate models and limited instrumental data.

  8. Climate, fishery and society interactions: Observations from the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C.

    2007-11-01

    Interdisciplinary studies comparing fisheries-dependent regions across the North Atlantic find a number of broad patterns. Large ecological shifts, disastrous to historical fisheries, have resulted when unfavorable climatic events occur atop overfishing. The "teleconnections" linking fisheries crises across long distances include human technology and markets, as well as climate or migratory fish species. Overfishing and climate-driven changes have led to a shift downwards in trophic levels of fisheries takes in some ecosystems, from dominance by bony fish to crustaceans. Fishing societies adapt to new ecological conditions through social reorganization that have benefited some people and places, while leaving others behind. Characteristic patterns of demographic change are among the symptoms of such reorganization. These general observations emerge from a review of recent case studies of individual fishing communities, such as those conducted for the North Atlantic Arc research project.

  9. Variability and predictability of the North Atlantic wave climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woolf, D. K.; Challenor, P. G.; Cotton, P. D.

    2002-10-01

    Wave climate across the ocean basins can be described using satellite altimetry; here, we concentrate on the North Atlantic region. Waves in the North Atlantic are strongly seasonal and peak in the winter season. The northeastern sector of the Atlantic and adjoining shelf seas also exhibit exceptionally high interannual variability in the winter, with monthly average significant wave height varying by up to a factor of 2 from one year to the next. The strength and geographical distribution of variability is broadly consistent throughout the winter months (December-March). A large fraction of these wave height anomalies is associated with a single pattern of pressure anomalies that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A predictor based on NAO dependence is "trained" from relatively recent satellite data and then tested against earlier satellite and in situ data. The predictor is successful in large areas of the North Atlantic, confirming a robust relationship between wave height anomalies and the NAO over the last few decades. A substantial rise (up to 0.6 m) in monthly mean wave heights on the northeastern Atlantic during the latter part of the twentieth century is attributable to changes in the NAO. Substantial residual anomalies in wave heights exist after the influence of the NAO has been subtracted; these are partly explained by a second pair of North Atlantic patterns in wave height anomalies and sea level pressure anomalies. This "East Atlantic" pattern is particularly influential in midwinter and affects the southern part of the northeastern sector (including the region of Seven Stones Light Vessel).

  10. Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oremus, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.

  11. State of mid-atlantic region forests in 2000

    Treesearch

    Kenneth W. Stolte; Barbara L. Conkling; Stephanie Fulton; M. Patricia Bradley

    2012-01-01

    Wet and warm climate, mountainous topography, and deep rich soils produced one of the most magnificent and diverse temperate forests in the world. In 1650 the Mid-Atlantic forests covered 95 percent of the region, but were greatly reduced in 1900 by extensive tree harvesting, and conversion to farms and pastures. Settlement of forests also led to severe wildfires, soil...

  12. Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Y.; Mochizuki, T.; Timmermann, A.; Kimoto, M.; Watanabe, M.

    2016-07-01

    The tropical Pacific cooling from the early 1990s to 2013 has contributed to the slowdown of globally averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The origin of this regional cooling trend still remains elusive. Here we demonstrate that the remote impact of Atlantic SST anomalies, as well as local atmosphere-ocean interactions, contributed to the eastern Pacific cooling during this period. By assimilating observed three-dimensional Atlantic temperature and salinity anomalies into a coupled general circulation model, we are able to qualitatively reproduce the observed Pacific decadal trends of SST and sea level pressure (SLP), albeit with reduced amplitude. Although a major part of the Pacific SLP trend can be explained by equatorial Pacific SST forcing only, the origin of this low-frequency variability can be traced back further to the remote impacts of equatorial Atlantic and South Atlantic SST trends. Atlantic SST impacts on the atmospheric circulation can also be detected for the Northeastern Pacific, thus providing a linkage between Atlantic climate and Western North American drought conditions.

  13. Tephra constraints on Rapid Climate Events (TRACE): precise correlation of marine and ice-core records during the last glacial period in the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, S. M.; Griggs, A. J.; Abbott, P. M.; Bourne, A. J.; Purcell, C. S.; Hall, I. R.; Scourse, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Little has challenged our understanding of climate change more so than the abruptness with which large-scale shifts in temperature occurred during the last glacial period. Atmospheric temperature jumps occurring within decades over Greenland were closely matched by rapid changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and major re-organisation of the deep ocean circulation. Although these climatic instabilities are well-documented in various proxy records, the causal mechanisms of such short-lived oscillations remain poorly understood, largely due to the dating uncertainties that prevent the integration of different archives. Synchronisation of palaeoclimate records on a common timescale is inherently problematic, and unravelling the lead/lag responses (hence cause and effect) between the Earth's climate components is currently beyond our reach. TRACE - a 5 year project funded by the European Research Council - exploits the use of microscopic traces of tephra deposits to precisely correlate the Greenland ice-cores with North Atlantic marine records. Here we draw upon examples of how these time-lines can be used to constrain the lead/lag responses between the atmospheric and oceanic systems during the last glacial period. High-resolution proxy data from North Atlantic marine cores MD04-2829CQ from the Rosemary Bank and MD04 2820CQ from the Goban Spur are integrated with the Greenland ice-cores according to the position of common tephra isochrons. These direct tie-lines allow us to focus in detail on the relative timing of rapid warming transitions between Greenland and the North Atlantic ocean during the last glacial period.

  14. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pinkney, Alfred E.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Evers, David C.; Hooper, Michael J.; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W.; Lazarus, Rebecca; Marshall, Harold G.; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A.; Schmerfeld, John J.; Sparling, Donald W.

    2015-01-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures

  15. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region.

    PubMed

    Pinkney, Alfred E; Driscoll, Charles T; Evers, David C; Hooper, Michael J; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W; Lazarus, Rebecca S; Marshall, Harold G; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A; Schmerfeld, John; Sparling, Donald W

    2015-07-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public-private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena-freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and

  16. Synchronous climate changes in Antarctica and the North Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steig, E.J.; Brook, E.J.; White, J.W.C.; Sucher, C.M.; Bender, M.L.; Lehman, S.J.; Morse, D.L.; Waddington, E.D.; Clow, G.D.

    1998-01-01

    Central Greenland ice cores provide evidence of abrupt changes in climate over the past 100,000 years. Many of these changes have also been identified in sedimentary and geochemical signatures in deep-sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic, confirming the link between millennial-scale climate variability and ocean thermohaline circulation. It is shown here that two of the most prominent North Atlantic events - the rapid warming that makes the end of the last glacial period and the Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas oscillation - are also recorded in an ice core from Taylor Dome, in the western Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. This result contrasts with evidence from ice cores in other regions of Antarctica, which show an asynchronous response between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

  17. Synchronous climate changes in antarctica and the north atlantic

    PubMed

    Steig; Brook; White; Sucher; Bender; Lehman; Morse; Waddington; Clow

    1998-10-02

    Central Greenland ice cores provide evidence of abrupt changes in climate over the past 100,000 years. Many of these changes have also been identified in sedimentary and geochemical signatures in deep-sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic, confirming the link between millennial-scale climate variability and ocean thermohaline circulation. It is shown here that two of the most prominent North Atlantic events-the rapid warming that marks the end of the last glacial period and the Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas oscillation-are also recorded in an ice core from Taylor Dome, in the western Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. This result contrasts with evidence from ice cores in other regions of Antarctica, which show an asynchronous response between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

  18. Linking Agulhas Leakage Variability and North Atlantic Climate MIS 1-5a

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dyez, K. A.; Zahn, R.; Hall, I. R.

    2014-12-01

    Agulhas leakage of warm, salty water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic is suggested to have altered Atlantic meridional overturning and climate in the North Atlantic. One way to assess such linkages with North Atlantic climate variability is to examine the past Agulhas hydrography via high-resolution marine records from the Agulhas Bank slope. Here we present one such hydrographic estimate from the Agulhas Bank slope in the Atlantic sector of the Agulhas Corridor using planktic foraminiferal (Globigerinoides ruber) δ18O and Mg/Ca-derived SST to estimate surface salinity. By focusing on the last 80,000 years this is the first quantitative fine-scale Agulhas leakage record that overlaps in time with the Greenland ice core record of abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic region. Periods of enhanced Agulhas Corridor salinity occur at Northern Hemisphere cool periods (glacial termination and Heinrich meltwater events) and are followed by rapid northern hemisphere warming. We show that the timing of maximal salinity events in relation to periods of North Atlantic freshwater perturbation is consistent with the concept suggested by climate models that Agulhas salinity oscillations could provide buoyancy compensation for the Atlantic and potentially even trigger increased convective activity in the North Atlantic, thereby restoring Atlantic overturning circulation after relatively weak states.

  19. Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianglin; Yang, Bao; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Luterbacher, Jürg; Osborn, Timothy J.; Briffa, Keith R.; Zorita, Eduardo

    2017-07-01

    The North Atlantic experiences climate variability on multidecadal scales, which is sometimes referred to as Atlantic multidecadal variability. However, the relative contributions of external forcing such as changes in solar irradiance or volcanic activity and internal dynamics to these variations are unclear. Here we provide evidence for persistent summer Atlantic multidecadal variability from AD 800 to 2010 using a network of annually resolved terrestrial proxy records from the circum-North Atlantic region. We find that large volcanic eruptions and solar irradiance minima induce cool phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability and collectively explain about 30% of the variance in the reconstruction on timescales greater than 30 years. We are then able to isolate the internally generated component of Atlantic multidecadal variability, which we define as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. We find that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is the largest contributor to Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past 1,200 years. We also identify coherence between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations, leading us to conclude that the apparent link between Atlantic multidecadal variability and regional to hemispheric climate does not arise solely from a common response to external drivers, and may instead reflect dynamic processes.

  20. Cenozoic climates: evidence from the North Atlantic

    SciTech Connect

    Berggren, W.A.

    1985-01-01

    Cenozoic biostratigraphy and climatology of the North Atlantic and adjacent land areas reflects the continuing fragmentation of Eurasia and concomitant changes on ocean-continent geometry. A latitudinal (zonal) Mesozoic circulation pattern evolved into a predominantly longitudinal (meridional) pattern during the Cenozoic in which the development of oceanic gateways and barriers gradually decreased the efficiency of poleward heat transfer resulting in the progressive climatic change which has taken place over the past 50 million years. Cenozoic distributional data from the North Atlantic and adjacent land areas will be reviewed from the following fields: a) terrestrial vertebrates and floras: b) marine calcareous microplankton and benthic foraminifera; c) other marine invertebrates. Available data suggests that the present climate in the northern hemisphere has resulted from a gradual, but inexorable, strengthening of latitudinal and vertical temperature gradients punctuated by several brief intervals of accelerated change. The absence of evidence for northern hemisphere polar glaciation prior to the late Neogene does not preclude seasonal cooling near the freezing point in post-Eocene time. Evidence for early Paleogene cold climates is not reflected in the fossil record.

  1. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #6: PUBLICATION OF FIRST REPORT FROM MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT (MARA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This research news edition announces the publication of the first report from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA). The report is entitled, *Climate Change Impacts in the Mid-Atlantic Region -- A Workshop Report.* MARA is being conducted as part of the USGCRP First Nation...

  2. Climatic Concepts and Regions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Paul F.

    Designed for students in grades 7 through 12, this teaching unit presents illustrative resource materials depicting concepts related to climate and geographic regions. Emphasis is on giving students an understanding of climatic elements and factors, not as isolated, disjointed entities, but as a dynamic interplay of forces having a very definite…

  3. Climatic Concepts and Regions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Paul F.

    Designed for students in grades 7 through 12, this teaching unit presents illustrative resource materials depicting concepts related to climate and geographic regions. Emphasis is on giving students an understanding of climatic elements and factors, not as isolated, disjointed entities, but as a dynamic interplay of forces having a very definite…

  4. North Atlantic-Fennoscandian Holocene climate trends and mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sejrup, Hans Petter; Seppä, Heikki; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; de Vernal, Anne; Renssen, Hans; Husum, Katrine; Jennings, Anne; Andrews, John T.

    2016-09-01

    To investigate the mechanisms behind Holocene regional climate trends from north of 58°N in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed and a temperature anomaly stack produced from 81 proxy derived summer temperature time series from 74 sites. The PC results show distinctly different trends for near-surface versus surface temperatures, demonstrating the importance of handling these separately. The first PC of weighted sea surface summer temperature time series and continental time series explains 45 ± 8% of the variance, where the uncertainty is the standard deviation of the distribution of variance explained across the 1000 age-uncertain ensemble members. PC1 has a relatively uniform expression over the whole region, closely following the summer insolation at 65°N. The second PC explains 22 ± 4% of the variance and shows a non-uniform expression, with loadings in opposite directions in the northern and southeastern parts of the region. Comparing the PC time series with model runs and with the timing of the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), suggest that this pattern reflects both topographic and albedo effects of the LIS as well as release of meltwater into the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Comparing the stack of gridded records with published global stacks reveals an unusual Holocene temperature development in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region most likely resulting from the location relative to the decaying LIS.

  5. Modeling the impact of changes in Atlantic sea surface temperature on the climate of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adeniyi, Mojisola O.

    2016-08-01

    This study assesses the impacts of warming/cooling of the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on the climate of West Africa using Version 4.4 of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. The 1-2 K cooling and warming of the Atlantic SST both result in tripole temperature and precipitation change structure, having a northwest-southeast orientation over West Africa. Findings reveal that the responses of precipitation and temperature to the Atlantic SST cooling are opposite to those for the Atlantic SST warming and these responses intensify with increased warming/cooling of the Atlantic SST. The structure of the change in climate is attributed to the response of atmospheric/soil moisture gradient and orientation of orography in West Africa.

  6. The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Alvarez, Francisco; Izquierdo, Alfredo; Keenlyside, Noel; Jacob, Daniela

    2017-06-01

    The key role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) on the seasonal cycle of the tropical Atlantic is investigated with a regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean model for two different coupled domains. Both domains include the equatorial Atlantic and a large portion of the northern tropical Atlantic, but one extends southward, and the other northwestward. The SAA is simulated as internal model variability in the former, and is prescribed as external forcing in the latter. In the first case, the model shows significant warm biases in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Angola-Benguela front zone. If the SAA is externally prescribed, these biases are substantially reduced. The biases are both of oceanic and atmospheric origin, and are influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions in coupled runs. The strong SST austral summer biases are associated with a weaker SAA, which weakens the winds over the southeastern tropical Atlantic, deepens the thermocline and prevents the local coastal upwelling of colder water. The biases in the basins interior in this season could be related to the advection and eddy transport of the coastal warm anomalies. In winter, the deeper thermocline and atmospheric fluxes are probably the main biases sources. Biases in incoming solar radiation and thus cloudiness seem to be a secondary effect only observed in austral winter. We conclude that the external prescription of the SAA south of 20°S improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle over the tropical Atlantic, revealing the fundamental role of this anticyclone in shaping the climate over this region.

  7. The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Alvarez, Francisco; Izquierdo, Alfredo; Keenlyside, Noel; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-08-01

    The key role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) on the seasonal cycle of the tropical Atlantic is investigated with a regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean model for two different coupled domains. Both domains include the equatorial Atlantic and a large portion of the northern tropical Atlantic, but one extends southward, and the other northwestward. The SAA is simulated as internal model variability in the former, and is prescribed as external forcing in the latter. In the first case, the model shows significant warm biases in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Angola-Benguela front zone. If the SAA is externally prescribed, these biases are substantially reduced. The biases are both of oceanic and atmospheric origin, and are influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions in coupled runs. The strong SST austral summer biases are associated with a weaker SAA, which weakens the winds over the southeastern tropical Atlantic, deepens the thermocline and prevents the local coastal upwelling of colder water. The biases in the basins interior in this season could be related to the advection and eddy transport of the coastal warm anomalies. In winter, the deeper thermocline and atmospheric fluxes are probably the main biases sources. Biases in incoming solar radiation and thus cloudiness seem to be a secondary effect only observed in austral winter. We conclude that the external prescription of the SAA south of 20°S improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle over the tropical Atlantic, revealing the fundamental role of this anticyclone in shaping the climate over this region.

  8. Aerosol interactions with African/Atlantic climate dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.

    2014-07-01

    Mechanistic relationships exist between variability of dust in the oceanic Saharan air layer (OSAL) and transient changes in the dynamics of Western Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This study provides evidence of possible interactions between dust in the OSAL region and African easterly jet-African easterly wave (AEJ-AEW) system in the climatology of boreal summer, when easterly wave activity peaks. Synoptic-scale changes in instability and precipitation in the African/Atlantic intertropical convergence zone are correlated with enhanced aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the OSAL region in response to anomalous 3D overturning circulations and upstream/downstream thermal anomalies at above and below the mean-AEJ level. Upstream and downstream anomalies are referred to the daily thermal/dynamical changes over the West African monsoon region and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Our hypothesis is that AOD in the OSAL is positively correlated with the downstream AEWs and negatively correlated with the upstream waves from climatological perspective. The similarity between the 3D pattern of thermal/dynamical anomalies correlated with dust outbreaks and those of AEWs provides a mechanism for dust radiative heating in the atmosphere to reinforce AEW activity. We proposed that the interactions of OSAL dust with regional climate mainly occur through coupling of dust with the AEWs.

  9. Origin of Southeast Tropical Atlantic Biases in Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Ping; Xu, Zhao

    2013-04-01

    Most coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) suffer from a prominent warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the southeast tropical Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa. The origin of the bias is not understood and remains highly controversial. Previous studies suggest that the origin of the bias stems from systematic errors of atmospheric models in simulating surface heat flux and coastal wind, or poorly simulated coastal upwelling. In this study, we show, using different reanalysis and observational data sets, IPCC model simulations, as well as a set of high-resolution regional climate model simulations, that systematic errors in ocean models make a significant contribution to the bias problem. In particular, (1) the strong warm bias at the Angola-Benguela front that is maintained by the local wind and the convergence of Angola and Benguela Current is caused by an overshooting of the Angola Current in ocean models and (2) the alongshore warm bias to the south of the front is caused by ocean model deficiencies in simulating the sharp thermocline in the equatorial Atlantic and along the Angola coast and the complex circulation system within the Benguela upwelling zone. We will further examine how regional air-sea feedbacks in the region can amplify systematic errors in the ocean and atmosphere model using a high resolution coupled regional climate model.

  10. Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lipschultz, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

  11. Climatic Perturbations of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Mid-Atlantic Estuaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harding, L. W.; Li, M.; Paerl, H.

    2008-12-01

    Climatic perturbations by drought-flood cycles, tropical storms, and hurricanes are increasingly important in Mid-Atlantic estuaries, leading to ecosystem-scale responses of the plankton system that have significant trophic implications. Recent observations support an emerging paradigm that climate dominates nutrient enrichment in these ecosystems, explaining seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton floral composition, biomass (chl-a), and primary productivity (PP). We present historical and recent data for the Chesapeake Bay and Albemarle-Pamlico Sound - Neuse River estuaries to quantify long-term trends against a backdrop of strong climatic forcing that evokes a high degree of interannual variability in these dynamic estuaries. Data sources include historical observations, monitoring cruises, individual research programs, and aircraft remote sensing of chlorophyll biomass. We describe climatic forcing of phytoplankton dynamics that principally reflects variability of freshwater flow and commensurate variability of nutrient loading and light availability. Analyses consist of spatial/temporal variability of chl-a; interannual variability of PP; statistical methods to classify regional climate; coincident forcing of floral composition, biomass, and PP by flow/climate. Data from these sources are being combined with climate analysis and biogeochemical modeling to support our current understanding, leading to predictive capabilities for phytoplankton dynamics in these rich ecosystems.

  12. ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN NAO VARIBILITY AND U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROCLIMATOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Variability in the climate of the US Mid-Atlantic Region is associated with larger scale variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Collectively, these three large-scal...

  13. ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN NAO VARIBILITY AND U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROCLIMATOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Variability in the climate of the US Mid-Atlantic Region is associated with larger scale variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Collectively, these three large-scal...

  14. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

    PubMed Central

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-01-01

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1–2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface. PMID:26369503

  15. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-09-15

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

  16. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-09-01

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

  17. Middle Atlantic Bight Marine Ecosystem: A Regional Forecast Model Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Coles, V. J.; Garraffo, Z. D.

    2011-12-01

    Changes in basin scale climate patterns can drive changes in mesoscale physical oceanographic processes and subsequent alterations of ecosystem states. Climatic variability can be induced in the northeastern shelfbreak large marine ecosystem by climate oscillations, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; and long-term trends, such as a warming pattern. Short term variability can be induced by changes in the water masses in the northern and southern boundaries, by Gulf Stream path and transport variations, and by local mesoscale and submesoscale features. A coupled bio-physical model (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) is being used to forecast the evolution of the frontal and current systems of the shelf and Gulf Stream, and subsequent changes in thermal conditions and ecosystem structure over the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB). This study aims to forecast the ocean state and nutrients in the MAB, and to investigate how cross-shelf exchanges of different water masses could affect nutrient budgets, primary and secondary production, and fish populations in coastal and shelf marine ecosystems. Preliminary results are shown for a regional MAB model nested to the global 1/12o HYCOM run at NOAA/NCEP/EMC using Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO) daily initialization. Elements of this simulation are nutrient influx condition at the northern and southern boundaries through regression to ocean thermodynamic variables, and nutrient input at the river mouths.

  18. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

    PubMed

    Keenlyside, N S; Latif, M; Jungclaus, J; Kornblueh, L; Roeckner, E

    2008-05-01

    The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.

  19. Mid-Atlantic Regional Wind Energy Institute

    SciTech Connect

    Courtney Lane

    2011-12-20

    As the Department of Energy stated in its 20% Wind Energy by 2030 report, there will need to be enhanced outreach efforts on a national, state, regional, and local level to communicate wind development opportunities, benefits and challenges to a diverse set of stakeholders. To help address this need, PennFuture was awarded funding to create the Mid-Atlantic Regional Wind Energy Institute to provide general education and outreach on wind energy development across Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Over the course of the two-year grant period, PennFuture used its expertise on wind energy policy and development in Pennsylvania and expanded it to other states in the Mid-Atlantic region. PennFuture accomplished this through reaching out and establishing connections with policy makers, local environmental groups, health and economic development organizations, and educational institutions and wind energy developers throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. PennFuture conducted two regional wind educational forums that brought together wind industry representatives and public interest organizations from across the region to discuss and address wind development in the Mid-Atlantic region. PennFuture developed the agenda and speakers in collaboration with experts on the ground in each state to help determine the critical issue to wind energy in each location. The sessions focused on topics ranging from the basics of wind development; model ordinance and tax issues; anti-wind arguments and counter points; wildlife issues and coalition building. In addition to in-person events, PennFuture held three webinars on (1) Generating Jobs with Wind Energy; (2) Reviving American Manufacturing with Wind Power; and (3) Wind and Transmission. PennFuture also created a web page for the institute (http://www.midatlanticwind.org) that contains an online database of fact sheets, research reports, sample advocacy letters, top anti-wind claims and information on how to

  20. Northern tropical Atlantic climate since late Medieval times from Northern Caribbean coral geochemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Paleoclimate reconstructions of different global climate modes over the last 1000 years provide the basis for testing the relative roles of forced and unforced variability climate system, which can help us improve projections of future climate change. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) has been characterized by a combination of persistent La Niña-like conditions, a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO), and increased Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The northern tropical Atlantic is sensitive to each of these climate patterns, but not all of them have the same regional fingerprint in the modern northern tropical Atlantic. The relative influence of different processes related to these climate patterns can help us better understand regional responses to climate change. The regional response of the northern tropical Atlantic is important because the tropical Atlantic Ocean is a large source of heat and moisture to the global climate system that can feedback onto global climate patterns. This study presents new coral Sr/Ca and δ18O data from the northern tropical Atlantic (Anegada, British Virgin Islands). Comparison of the sub-fossil corals that grew during the 13th and 14th Centuries with modern coral geochemical data from this site indicates relatively cooler mean conditions with a decrease in the oxygen isotopic composition of the water consistent with lower salinities. Similar average annual cycles between modern and sub-fossil Sr/Ca indicate no change in seasonal temperature range, but a difference in the relative phasing of the δ18O seasonal cycles indicates that the fresher mean conditions may be due to a more northerly position of the regional salinity front. This localized response is consistent with some, but not all of the expected regional responses to a La Niña-like state, a +NAO state, and increased AMOC. Understanding these differences can provide insight into the relative importance of advection versus surface fluxes for

  1. Modeling anthropogenic Climate Change of the northwest European Shelves and the northeast Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sein, D. V.; Gröger, M.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajewicz, U.

    2012-04-01

    The global general circulation models involved in IPCC simulations are usually too coarse to reproduce many regional processes, which could have an impact on the future climate change in regions such as the North Sea and Baltic Sea. We present a novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios and to investigate the interactions between the North Atlantic Ocean and the European shelves as well as their impact on the North Atlantic climate. A global ocean ¡V sea ice ¡V marine biogeochemistry model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. The model approach and the results of downscaled A1B scenario for the North Atlantic and North European shelves are presented. The applied regionally coupled model comprises the regional atmosphere model REMO, the global ocean model MPIOM with up to 5 km horizontal resolution in the North Sea, the marine biogeochemistry model HAMOCC and the hydrological discharge model HD. The coupled domain includes Europe, the North Atlantic and part of the Arctic Ocean. The lateral atmospheric and the surface ocean boundary conditions outside the coupled domain were prescribed using data from an A1B scenario simulation with the global ECHAM5/MPIOM model. Numerical experiments covering the period 1920-2100 were carried out. Future changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation focusing on different regions of North Atlantic and North European shelves were analyzed. In addition to the climate warming, other processes like northward shift of the Gulf Stream position, Atlantic MOC weakening, decrease of biological production in North Sea region, regional sea level rise, extreme floods and changes in amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle of river runoff were estimated.

  2. Cyclic growth in Atlantic region continental crust

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodwin, A. M.

    1986-01-01

    Atlantic region continental crust evolved in successive stages under the influence of regular, approximately 400 Ma-long tectonic cycles. Data point to a variety of operative tectonic processes ranging from widespread ocean floor consumption (Wilson cycle) to entirely ensialic (Ampferer-style subduction or simple crustal attenuation-compression). Different processes may have operated concurrently in some or different belts. Resolving this remains the major challenge.

  3. Synchronous response of marine plankton ecosystems to climate in the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Gregory; Edwards, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Over the last few decades, global warming has accelerated both the rate and magnitude of changes observed in many functional units of the Earth System. In this context, plankton are sentinel organisms because they are sensitive to subtle levels of changes in temperature and might help in identifying the current effects of climate change on pelagic ecosystems. In this paper, we performed a comparative approach in two regions of the North Atlantic (i.e. the Northeast Atlantic and the North Sea) to explore the relationships between changes in marine plankton, the regional physico-chemical environment and large-scale hydro-climatic forcing using four key indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern and Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) anomalies. Our analyses suggest that long-term changes in the states of the two ecosystems were synchronous and correlated to the same large-scale hydro-climatic variables: NHT anomalies, the AMO and to a lesser extent the EA pattern. No significant correlation was found between long-term ecosystem modifications and the state of the NAO. Our results suggest that the effect of climate on these ecosystems has mainly occurred in both regions through the modulation of the thermal regime.

  4. Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations.

    PubMed

    Mills, Katherine E; Pershing, Andrew J; Sheehan, Timothy F; Mountain, David

    2013-10-01

    North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Carbon uptake sensitivity of the North Atlantic to climate change: A model study with the Bergen Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goris, Nadine; Heinze, Christoph; Tjiputra, Jerry; Schwinger, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    The efficiency of the world's oceans to take up carbon is expected to decrease with ongoing climate change, thereby increasing the atmospheric burden of carbon. Here, the North Atlantic is a region of special interest as it is one of the most important oceanic carbon sinks, featuring an exceptionally high column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Several model studies have identified the carbon uptake of the North Atlantic as highly sensitive to climate change, but these studies are mostly global studies and are not concerned with a detailed attribution of the underlying mechanisms and their regional differences within the North Atlantic. Yet, quantifying the climate change induced CO2-uptake variability in the North Atlantic and identifying its main drivers is of high relevance for improving climate projections. In order to assess and understand the climate sensitivity of the CO2 uptake of the North Atlantic, we investigate the differences between two simulations (denoted as simulation COU and simulation BGC) carried out with the Bergen Earth System Model (BCM-C). While simulation COU features rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (based on observed records for 1850-1999 and the IPCC SRES-A2 scenario for 2000-2099) for radiation code and carbon fluxes, simulation BGC uses rising atmospheric concentrations only for the calculation of the carbon fluxes. The differences between those simulations identify climate induced changes. Our analysis confirms the important role of the North Atlantic for carbon uptake and demonstrates that this region is most sensitive to climate change (in comparison to other oceanic regions as defined in Tjiputra et al., 2010). We furthermore identify substantially different responses to climate change in different parts of the North Atlantic. Based on these differing responses, we divide the North Atlantic into 3 regions, namely the subpolar gyre region (SPG), the high latitude region (HL) and the rest of the North Atlantic (rNAT*, covering

  6. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  7. Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Chandler, Mark A.; Robinson, Marci M.

    2009-01-01

    The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

  8. Sub-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability in observations and the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reintges, Annika; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2017-06-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic sector. The corresponding index varies on a wide range of timescales, from days and months to decades and beyond. Sub-decadal NAO variability has been well documented, but the underlying mechanism is still under discussion. Other indices of North Atlantic sector climate variability such as indices of sea surface and surface air temperature or Arctic sea ice extent also exhibit pronounced sub-decadal variability. Here, we use sea surface temperature and sea level pressure observations, and the Kiel Climate Model to investigate the dynamics of the sub-decadal NAO variability. The sub-decadal NAO variability is suggested to originate from dynamical large-scale air-sea interactions. The adjustment of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to previous surface heat flux variability provides the memory of the coupled mode. The results stress the role of coupled feedbacks in generating sub-decadal North Atlantic sector climate variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability in that region.

  9. Sub-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability in observations and the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reintges, Annika; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2016-07-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic sector. The corresponding index varies on a wide range of timescales, from days and months to decades and beyond. Sub-decadal NAO variability has been well documented, but the underlying mechanism is still under discussion. Other indices of North Atlantic sector climate variability such as indices of sea surface and surface air temperature or Arctic sea ice extent also exhibit pronounced sub-decadal variability. Here, we use sea surface temperature and sea level pressure observations, and the Kiel Climate Model to investigate the dynamics of the sub-decadal NAO variability. The sub-decadal NAO variability is suggested to originate from dynamical large-scale air-sea interactions. The adjustment of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to previous surface heat flux variability provides the memory of the coupled mode. The results stress the role of coupled feedbacks in generating sub-decadal North Atlantic sector climate variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability in that region.

  10. Patagonian and southern South Atlantic view of Holocene climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Strelin, J. A.; Denton, G. H.; Anderson, R. F.; Vandergoes, M. J.; Finkel, R. C.; Schwartz, R.; Travis, S. G.; Garcia, J. L.; Martini, M. A.; Nielsen, S. H. H.

    2016-06-01

    We present a comprehensive 10Be chronology for Holocene moraines in the Lago Argentino basin, on the east side of the South Patagonian Icefield. We focus on three different areas, where prior studies show ample glacier moraine records exist because they were formed by outlet glaciers sensitive to climate change. The 10Be dated records are from the Lago Pearson, Herminita Península-Brazo Upsala, and Lago Frías areas, which span a distance of almost 100 km adjacent to the modern Icefield. New 10Be ages show that expanded glaciers and moraine building events occurred at least at 6120 ± 390 (n = 13), 4450 ± 220 (n = 7), 1450 or 1410 ± 110 (n = 18), 360 ± 30 (n = 5), and 240 ± 20 (n = 8) years ago. Furthermore, other less well-dated glacier expansions of the Upsala Glacier occurred between 1400 and ∼1000 and ∼2300 and ∼2000 years ago. The most extensive glaciers occurred over the interval from ∼6100 to ∼4500 years ago, and their margins over the last ∼600 years were well within and lower than those in the middle Holocene. The 10Be ages agree with 14C-limiting data for the glacier histories in this area. We then link southern South American, adjacent South Atlantic, and other Southern Hemisphere records to elucidate broader regional patterns of climate and their possible causes. In the early Holocene, a far southward position of the westerly winds fostered warmth, small Patagonian glaciers, and reduced sea ice coverage over the South Atlantic. Although we infer a pronounced southward displacement of the westerlies during the early Holocene, these conditions did not occur throughout the southern mid-high latitudes, an important exception being over the southwest Pacific sector. Subsequently, a northward locus and/or expansion of the winds over the Patagonia-South Atlantic sector promoted the largest glaciers between ∼6100 and ∼4500 years ago and greatest sea ice coverage. Over the last few millennia, the South Patagonian Icefield has experienced

  11. Surface Temperature Trends in the Arctic Atlantic Region Over the Last 2,000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korhola, A.; Hanhijarvi, S.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset of the recent warming trend.

  12. Climate science: Origins of Atlantic decadal swings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Booth, Ben

    2017-08-01

    Temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is the result of many competing physical processes, but the relative roles of these processes is a source of contention. Here, scientists present two perspectives on the debate.

  13. Ice core evidence for a very tight link between North Atlantic and east Asian glacial climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruth, Urs; Bigler, Matthias; Röthlisberger, Regine; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Hansson, Margareta E.; Johnsen, Sigfus J.; Lu, Huayu; Steffensen, Jørgen P.

    2007-02-01

    Corresponding millennial-scale climate changes have been reported from the North Atlantic region and from east Asia for the last glacial period on independent timescales only. To assess their degree of synchrony we suggest interpreting Greenland ice core dust parameters as proxies for the east Asian monsoon systems. This allows comparing North Atlantic and east Asian climate on the same timescale in high resolution ice core data without relative dating uncertainties. We find that during Dansgaard-Oeschger events North Atlantic region temperature and east Asian storminess were tightly coupled and changed synchronously within 5-10 years with no systematic lead or lag, thus providing instantaneous climatic feedback. The tight link between North Atlantic and east Asian glacial climate could have amplified changes in the northern polar cell to larger scales. We further find evidence for an early onset of a Younger Dryas-like event in continental Asia, which gives evidence for heterogeneous climate change within east Asia during the last deglaciation.

  14. Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Wei; Lee, June-Yi; Lu, Riyu; Dong, Buwen; Ha, Kyung-Ja

    2015-10-01

    The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

  15. Waveform Tomography of the North Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Celli, Nicolas Luca; Lebedev, Sergei; Schaeffer, Andrew; Gaina, Carmen

    2016-04-01

    The enormous volumes of newly available, broadband seismic data and the continuing development of waveform tomography techniques present us with an opportunity to resolve the structure of North Atlantic at a new level of detail. Dynamics of the North Atlantic Ridge and the Iceland Hotspot, evolution of the passive margins on both sides of the ocean, and the nature of the upper-mantle flow beneath the region are some of the important fundamental problems that we can make progress on using new, more detailed and accurate models of seismic structure and anisotropy within the lithosphere and underlying mantle. We assemble a very large waveform dataset including all publicly available data in the region, from both permanent and temporary seismic networks and experiments conducted in Northern and Western Europe, Iceland, Canada, USA, Greenland and Russia. The tomographic model is constrained by vertical-component waveform fits, computed using the Automated Multimode Inversion of surface, S and multiple S waves. Each seismogram fit provides a set of linear equations describing 1D average velocity perturbations with respect to a 3D reference velocity model within an approximate sensitivity region between the source and the receiver. The equations are then combined into a large linear system and jointly inverted for a model of shear- and compressional-wave speeds and azimuthal anisotropy within the lithosphere and underlying mantle. The isotropic-average shear speeds reflect the temperature and composition at depth, offering important new information on both regional- and basin-scale lithospheric structure and evolution. Azimuthal anisotropy provides evidence on the past and present deformation in the lithosphere and asthenosphere beneath the region, which can be interpreted together with other evidence from geological and geophysical data and recent plate kinematic models.

  16. Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balascio, N. L.; D'Andrea, W. J.; Bradley, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    Small glaciers and ice caps respond rapidly to climate variations, and records of their past extent provide information on the natural envelope of past climate variability. Millennial-scale trends in Holocene glacier size are well documented and correspond with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. However, there is only sparse and fragmentary evidence for higher-frequency variations in glacier size because in many Northern Hemisphere regions glacier advances of the past few hundred years were the most extensive and destroyed the geomorphic evidence of ice growth and retreat during the past several thousand years. Thus, most glacier records have been of limited use for investigating centennial-scale climate forcing and feedback mechanisms. Here we report a continuous record of glacier activity for the last 9.5 ka from southeast Greenland derived from high-resolution measurements on a proglacial lake sediment sequence. Physical and geochemical parameters show that the glaciers responded to previously documented Northern Hemisphere climatic excursions, including the "8.2 ka" cooling event, the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Neoglacial cooling, and 20th century warming. In addition, the sediments indicate centennial-scale oscillations in glacier size during the late Holocene. Beginning at 4.1 ka, a series of abrupt glacier advances occurred, each lasting ~100 years and followed by a period of retreat, that were superimposed on a gradual trend toward larger glacier size. Thus, while declining summer insolation caused long-term cooling and glacier expansion during the late Holocene, climate system dynamics resulted in repeated episodes of glacier expansion and retreat on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. These episodes coincided with ice rafting events in the North Atlantic Ocean and periods of regional ice cap expansion, which confirms their regional significance and indicates that considerable glacier activity on these timescales is a normal feature of

  17. Productivity Pulses and Rapid Climate Change in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rae, J. W. B.; Thornalley, D.; Burke, A.; Greenop, R.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Rees-Owen, R. L.

    2016-12-01

    The North Atlantic is often thought of as the powerhouse of rapid glacial climate change, with stadial and interstadial events linked to different modes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. However while these events have been invoked to trigger biogeochemical responses in far field settings, including the topical upwelling zones and Southern Ocean, less is known about productivity and CO2 change in the North Atlantic itself. Here we present a new high-resolution reconstruction of opal flux in the North Atlantic for the last 100 kyr. This demonstrates a strong coupling between biogeochemistry and rapid climate change, with opal minima observed during all interstadial events, and opal maxima during all stadials (both Heinrich and non-Heinrich). We suggest that high opal flux during stadials is a consequence of substantial reduction in overturning circulation, with a switch to a stratified regime dominated by upwelling of nutrient-rich deep waters, akin to the modern North Pacific. In contrast during interstadial events, an invigorated overturning circulation flushes nutrient-poor subtropical waters through the high latitudes and upper reaches of the North Atlantic. Our results challenge the paradigm that enhanced stratification necessarily drives lower productivity at high latitudes, and suggest that the North Atlantic may have played a more active role in millennial to centennial-scale glacial CO2 change than previously thought.

  18. Marine and terrestrial biotic response to climate variability across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary in the Mid-Atlantic region, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willard, D. A.; Aleman, W.; Edwards, L. E.; Farmer, J. R.; Self-Trail, J.

    2009-12-01

    Late Paleocene to early Eocene continental margin sediments provide an opportunity to examine rates and patterns of change in terrestrial and marine ecoystems during an interval of rapid global warming and increasing atmospheric carbon concentrations. We present Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) multiproxy data from a core obtained in 2007 from South Dover Bridge, Talbot County, Maryland. In it, we identified an apparently conformable Paleocene-Eocene contact at the Aquia Formation/Marlboro Clay boundary based on nannofossil, dinocyst, and pollen assemblages. A CaCO3 dissolution zone persists through the lower 91 cm of the Marlboro Clay. Terrestrial palynomorph concentration increases sharply at the base (<10 cm) of the dissolution zone, which is characterized by dominance (40-50%) of fern spores and distinctive palynofacies. Specimens of the dinocyst marker species Apectodinium augustum are present but not abundant. Planktic and benthic foraminifers and nannofossils are absent in the dissolution zone, except for distinct and reduced assemblages at 54 cm above the basal Marlboro contact. Marlboro Clay sediment above the dissolution zone contains a unique nannofossil assemblage that is restricted to this unit and is indicative of the PETM both regionally and globally. The re-occurrence of calcareous nannofossil species in the upper Marlboro that disappeared at the base of the dissolution zone suggests a return to normal oceanic conditions. Comparison of multi-proxy data from this high-sedimentation site with other PETM records is important to improve our understanding of the pattern and timing of vegetation, phytoplankton, and marine responses to climate variability associated with the PETM, both regionally and globally.

  19. North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate.

    PubMed

    Mohtadi, Mahyar; Prange, Matthias; Oppo, Delia W; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Merkel, Ute; Zhang, Xiao; Steinke, Stephan; Lückge, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    The response of the tropical climate in the Indian Ocean realm to abrupt climate change events in the North Atlantic Ocean is contentious. Repositioning of the intertropical convergence zone is thought to have been responsible for changes in tropical hydroclimate during North Atlantic cold spells, but the dearth of high-resolution records outside the monsoon realm in the Indian Ocean precludes a full understanding of this remote relationship and its underlying mechanisms. Here we show that slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas stadial affected the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate through changes to the Hadley circulation including a southward shift in the rising branch (the intertropical convergence zone) and an overall weakening over the southern Indian Ocean. Our results are based on new, high-resolution sea surface temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records of well-dated sedimentary archives from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 45,000 years, combined with climate model simulations of Atlantic circulation slowdown under Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 boundary conditions. Similar conditions in the east and west of the basin rule out a zonal dipole structure as the dominant forcing of the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate of millennial-scale events. Results from our simulations and proxy data suggest dry conditions in the northern Indian Ocean realm and wet and warm conditions in the southern realm during North Atlantic cold spells.

  20. Glacial to Holocene changes in trans-Atlantic Saharan dust transport and dust-climate feedbacks.

    PubMed

    Williams, Ross H; McGee, David; Kinsley, Christopher W; Ridley, David A; Hu, Shineng; Fedorov, Alexey; Tal, Irit; Murray, Richard W; deMenocal, Peter B

    2016-11-01

    Saharan mineral dust exported over the tropical North Atlantic is thought to have significant impacts on regional climate and ecosystems, but limited data exist documenting past changes in long-range dust transport. This data gap limits investigations of the role of Saharan dust in past climate change, in particular during the mid-Holocene, when climate models consistently underestimate the intensification of the West African monsoon documented by paleorecords. We present reconstructions of African dust deposition in sediments from the Bahamas and the tropical North Atlantic spanning the last 23,000 years. Both sites show early and mid-Holocene dust fluxes 40 to 50% lower than recent values and maximum dust fluxes during the deglaciation, demonstrating agreement with records from the northwest African margin. These quantitative estimates of trans-Atlantic dust transport offer important constraints on past changes in dust-related radiative and biogeochemical impacts. Using idealized climate model experiments to investigate the response to reductions in Saharan dust's radiative forcing over the tropical North Atlantic, we find that small (0.15°C) dust-related increases in regional sea surface temperatures are sufficient to cause significant northward shifts in the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, increased precipitation in the western Sahel and Sahara, and reductions in easterly and northeasterly winds over dust source regions. Our results suggest that the amplifying feedback of dust on sea surface temperatures and regional climate may be significant and that accurate simulation of dust's radiative effects is likely essential to improving model representations of past and future precipitation variations in North Africa.

  1. Glacial to Holocene changes in trans-Atlantic Saharan dust transport and dust-climate feedbacks

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Ross H.; McGee, David; Kinsley, Christopher W.; Ridley, David A.; Hu, Shineng; Fedorov, Alexey; Tal, Irit; Murray, Richard W.; deMenocal, Peter B.

    2016-01-01

    Saharan mineral dust exported over the tropical North Atlantic is thought to have significant impacts on regional climate and ecosystems, but limited data exist documenting past changes in long-range dust transport. This data gap limits investigations of the role of Saharan dust in past climate change, in particular during the mid-Holocene, when climate models consistently underestimate the intensification of the West African monsoon documented by paleorecords. We present reconstructions of African dust deposition in sediments from the Bahamas and the tropical North Atlantic spanning the last 23,000 years. Both sites show early and mid-Holocene dust fluxes 40 to 50% lower than recent values and maximum dust fluxes during the deglaciation, demonstrating agreement with records from the northwest African margin. These quantitative estimates of trans-Atlantic dust transport offer important constraints on past changes in dust-related radiative and biogeochemical impacts. Using idealized climate model experiments to investigate the response to reductions in Saharan dust’s radiative forcing over the tropical North Atlantic, we find that small (0.15°C) dust-related increases in regional sea surface temperatures are sufficient to cause significant northward shifts in the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, increased precipitation in the western Sahel and Sahara, and reductions in easterly and northeasterly winds over dust source regions. Our results suggest that the amplifying feedback of dust on sea surface temperatures and regional climate may be significant and that accurate simulation of dust’s radiative effects is likely essential to improving model representations of past and future precipitation variations in North Africa. PMID:28138515

  2. Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations.

    PubMed

    McCarthy, Gerard D; Haigh, Ivan D; Hirschi, Joël J-M; Grist, Jeremy P; Smeed, David A

    2015-05-28

    Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

  3. Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarthy, Gerard D.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Hirschi, Joël J.-M.; Grist, Jeremy P.; Smeed, David A.

    2015-05-01

    Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

  4. 77 FR 35357 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Commercial Atlantic Region Non-Sandbar Large Coastal Shark...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-13

    ...; Commercial Atlantic Region Non-Sandbar Large Coastal Shark Fishery Opening Date AGENCY: National Marine...-sandbar large coastal shark fishery. This action is necessary to inform fishermen and dealers about the fishery opening date. DATES: The commercial Atlantic region non-sandbar large coastal shark fishery will...

  5. Quaternary North Atlantic Surface Paleoceanography in Regions of Potential Deep-water Formation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruddiman, W. F.

    1984-01-01

    At the time scale of the Quaternary climate cycles, the sites of formation of North Atlantic Deep Water are not known. The interglacial extreme is presumably exemplified by the modern regions; the Norwegian, Greenland and Labrador Seas. During the major glacial-age coolings in the North Atlantic, the sites may have shifted well to the south, perhaps as far as the limit of the polar front at 40 to 50 N. Still other sites may have been important during intermediate climatic conditions. Because of the close coupling of high-latitude surface waters to North Atlantic Deep Water in the modern ocean, the history of sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillations across the high-latitude North Atlantic is relevant to an understanding of deep-water formation on the longer time scales.

  6. INDICATORS OF CHANGE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERSHEDS AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE IN UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric temperature in the past century relative to the preceding millennium strongly suggests that we are in a period of rapid global climate change. The mid-Atlantic region is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which...

  7. INDICATORS OF CHANGE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERSHEDS AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE IN UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric temperature in the past century relative to the preceding millennium strongly suggests that we are in a period of rapid global climate change. The mid-Atlantic region is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which...

  8. CARICOF - The Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are viewed as a critical building block in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The GFCS seeks to extend RCOFs to all vulnerable regions of the world such as the Caribbean, of which the entire population is exposed to water- and heat-related natural hazards. An RCOF is initially intended to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community. A focus is given on variations in climate conditions on a seasonal timescale. In this view, the relevance of a Caribbean RCOF (CARICOF) is the following: while the seasonality of the climate in the Caribbean has been well documented, major gaps in knowledge exist in terms of the drivers in the shifts of amplitude and phase of seasons (as evidenced from the worst region-wide drought period in recent history during 2009-2010). To address those gaps, CARICOF has brought together National Weather Services (NWSs) from 18 territories under the coordination of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), to produce region-wide, consensus, seasonal climate outlooks since March 2012. These outlooks include tercile rainfall forecasts, sea and air surface temperature forecasts as well as the likely evolution of the drivers of seasonal climate variability in the region, being amongst others the El Niño Southern Oscillation or tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea temperatures. Forecasts for both the national-scale forecasts made by the NWSs and CIMH's regional-scale forecast amalgamate output from several forecasting tools. These currently include: (1) statistical models such as Canonical Correlation Analysis run with the Climate Predictability Tool, providing tercile rainfall forecasts at weather station scale; (2) a global outlooks published by the WMO appointed Global Producing

  9. Regional influence of decadal to multidecadal Atlantic Oscillations in Morocco during the last 1200 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ait Brahim, Y.; Sifeddine, A.; Cheng, H.; Khodri, M.; Cruz, F. W., Sr.; Pérez-Zanón, N.; SHA, L.; Wassenburg, J. A.; Bouchaou, L.

    2016-12-01

    Climate projections predict a substantial increase of extreme heats and drought occurrences during the coming decades in Morocco, while already under severe water stress. It is however not clear what can be attributed to natural climate variability and to anthropogenic forcing, as hydroclimate variations observed in areas such as Morocco are highly influenced by the Atlantic climate modes. Since observational data sets are too short to resolve properly natural modes of variability acting on decadal to multidecadal timescales, high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are the only alternative to reconstruct climate variability in the remote past. However, the climate processes are still poorly understood in North Africa, which makes the investigation of hydroclimate variations during the last millennium in Morocco highly requested. Here, we present the first well-dated high resolution ( 1.7 years) stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) speleothem record from southwestern Morocco, covering the last 1200 years. Our record reveals substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords, with prevailing dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), wetter conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and a trend towards dry conditions during the current warm period. These coherent regional climate signals suggest common climate controls. Statistical analyses indicate that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last millennium. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably influenced the regional climate in North Africa through the influence on Sahara Low which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively.

  10. Impact of the North Atlantic circulation on the climate change patterns of North Sea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narayan, Nikesh; Mathis, Mortiz; Klein, Birgit; Klein, Holger; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    The physical properties of the North Sea are characterized by the exchange of water masses with the North Atlantic at the northern boundary and Baltic Sea to the east. The combined effects of localized forcing, tidal mixing and advection of water masses make the North Sea a challenging study area. Previous investigations indicated a possibility that the variability of the North Atlantic circulation and the strength of the sub-polar gyre (SPG) might influence the physical properties of the North Sea. The assessment of the complex interaction between the North Atlantic and the North Sea in a climate change scenario requires regionally coupled global RCP simulations with enhanced resolution of the North Sea and the North Atlantic. In this study we analyzed result from the regionally coupled ocean-atmosphere-biogeochemistry model system (MPIOM-REMO-HAMOCC) with a hydrodynamic (HD) model. The ocean model has a zoomed grid which provides the highest resolution over the West European Shelf by shifting its poles over Chicago and Central Europe. An index for the intensity of SPG was estimated by averaging the barotropic stream function (ψ) over the North Atlantic. Various threshold values for ψ were tested to define the strength of the SPG. These SPG indices have been correlated with North Sea hydrographic parameters at various levels to identify areas affected by SPG variability. The influence of the Atlantic's eastern boundary current, contributing more saline waters to the North West European shelf area is also investigated.

  11. Influence of the North Atlantic on European climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prömmel, Kerstin; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2017-04-01

    With the help of simulations performed with the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) we try to understand the processes and mechanisms leading to European climate extremes. These extremes include for example cold, warm or snowy winters. For the analysis of the underlying mechanisms we concentrate on modes like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), which are supposed to influence each other. The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The influence of the spatial resolution of MPI-ESM on the results is also investigated.

  12. The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lim, Young-Kwon

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

  13. Salt transport in the Subpolar Gyre amplifies North Atlantic climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Born, Andreas; Stocker, Thomas F.; Britt Sandø, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Transport of salt in the Irminger Current, the northern branch of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre coupling the eastern and western subpolar North Atlantic, plays an important role for climate variability across a wide range of time scales. High-resolution ocean modeling and observations indicate that salinities in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic decrease with enhanced circulation of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. This has led to the perception that a stronger SPG also transports less salt westward, which would weaken deep convection in the Labrador Sea and thus the gyre itself. In this study, we analyze a regional ocean model and a comprehensive global coupled climate model, and show that a stronger SPG transports more salt in the Irminger Current irrespective of lower salinities in its source region. The additional salt converges in the Labrador Sea and the Irminger Basin by eddy transports, increases surface salinity in the western SPG, and favors more intense deep convection. This is part of a positive feedback mechanism with large implications for climate variability and predictability.

  14. Management of hardwood forests in the mid-Atlantic region: past, present, and future

    Treesearch

    David A. Marquis

    1991-01-01

    Hardwood forests of the Mid-Atlantic region have a multitude of values. They provide timber for furniture, paper, and other products, habitats for wildlife, water for homes and industry, and opportunities for outdoor recreation activities of many types. They dominate much of our landscape, serve as reservoirs of biological diversity, alter climate, and affect our lives...

  15. State of mid-atlantic region forests in 2000-Summary Report

    Treesearch

    Kenneth W. Stolte

    2012-01-01

    Wet and warm climate, mountainous topography, and deep rich soils produced one of the most magnificent and diverse temperate forests in the world. In 1650 the Mid-Atlantic forests covered 95 percent of the region, but were greatly reduced in 1900 by extensive tree harvesting, and conversion to farms and pastures. Settlement of forests also led to severe wildfires, soil...

  16. Collaborative Project: Understanding Climate Model Biases in Tropical Atlantic and Their Impact on Simulations of Extreme Climate Events

    SciTech Connect

    Chang, Ping

    2016-01-04

    Recent studies have revealed that among all the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic has experienced the most pronounced warming trend over the 20th century. Many extreme climate events affecting the U.S., such as hurricanes, severe precipitation and drought events, are influenced by conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. It is therefore imperative to have accurate simulations of the climatic mean and variability in the Atlantic region to be able to make credible projections of future climate change affecting the U.S. and other countries adjoining the Atlantic Ocean. Unfortunately, almost all global climate models exhibit large biases in their simulations of tropical Atlantic climate. The atmospheric convection simulation errors in the Amazon region and the associated errors in the trade wind simulations are hypothesized to be a leading cause of the tropical Atlantic biases in climate models. As global climate models have resolutions that are too coarse to resolve some of the atmospheric and oceanic processes responsible for the model biases, we propose to use a high-resolution coupled regional climate model (CRCM) framework to address the tropical bias issue. We propose to combine the expertise in tropical coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling at Texas A&M University (TAMU) and the coupled land-atmosphere modeling expertise at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop a comprehensive CRCM for the Atlantic sector within a general and flexible modeling framework. The atmospheric component of the CRCM will be the NCAR WRF model and the oceanic component will be the Rutgers/UCLA ROMS. For the land component, we will use CLM modified at PNNL to include more detailed representations of vegetation and soil hydrology processes. The combined TAMU-PNNL CRCM model will be used to simulate the Atlantic climate, and the associated land-atmosphere-ocean interactions at a horizontal resolution of 9 km or finer. A particular focus of the model

  17. Building International Research Partnerships in the North Atlantic-Arctic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benway, Heather M.; Hofmann, Eileen; St. John, Michael

    2014-09-01

    The North Atlantic-Arctic region, which is critical to the health and socioeconomic well being of North America and Europe, is susceptible to climate-driven changes in circulation, biogeochemistry, and marine ecosystems. The need for strong investment in the study of biogeochemical and ecosystem processes and interactions with physical processes over a range of time and space scales in this region was clearly stated in the 2013 Galway Declaration, an intergovernmental statement on Atlantic Ocean cooperation (http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-459_en.htm). Subsequently, a workshop was held to bring together researchers from the United States, Canada, and Europe with expertise across multiple disciplines to discuss an international research initiative focused on key features, processes, and ecosystem services (e.g., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, spring bloom dynamics, fisheries, etc.) and associated sensitivities to climate changes.

  18. Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Men, Guang; Wan, Xiuquan; Liu, Zedong

    2016-10-01

    Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.

  19. The Relationship between Atlantic Overturning and Climate in the Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howe, J. N. W.; Piotrowski, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation play an important role in modulating global climate by controlling northward heat transport in the surface ocean and carbon storage in the deep ocean. We present a new high resolution 1.2 Myr record of neodymium isotopes (ɛNd) - a proxy for water mass mixing - measured on foraminifera and fish debris from site ODP 929 [6.0°N, 43.7°W, 4356 m] on the Ceara Rise in the western equatorial Atlantic Ocean. This record reveals a fundamental step-change in the nature of glacial Atlantic overturning across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition as well as providing new insight into the relationship between ocean circulation and greenhouse gas forcing during the period known as the "lukewarm" interglacials.Comparison with benthic foraminiferal carbon isotopes from the same core reveals periods of significant decoupling between ɛNd and δ13C, demonstrating that deep Atlantic water mass mixing proportions and nutrient chemistry can vary independently of one another. In contrast, comparison of the ɛNd record with benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes reveals a tight coupling, exhibiting the control of Northern Hemisphere climate on both ice volume and Atlantic overturning. The high resolution of the records allows cross spectral analysis of the phasing between authigenic ɛNd and both benthic foraminiferal δ13C and δ18O. This reveals that the different proxy records are coherent at time periods of 100-, 40- and 23-kyr which correlate with orbital forcing. However, the changes in each variable at these periods are not always in phase, indicating that the proxies exhibit different temporal responses to climatic forcings.

  20. Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models

    PubMed Central

    Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier; Drijfhout, Sybren; Mary, Yannick; Bennabi, Amine

    2017-01-01

    Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. PMID:28198383

  1. Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models.

    PubMed

    Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier; Drijfhout, Sybren; Mary, Yannick; Bennabi, Amine

    2017-02-15

    Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.

  2. Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier; Drijfhout, Sybren; Mary, Yannick; Bennabi, Amine

    2017-02-01

    Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.

  3. The Impact of North-South Shifts in the Sahel on North Atlantic Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, L.; Clement, A. C.; Mahowald, N. M.; Albani, S.; Swart, P. K.; Arienzo, M. M.

    2013-12-01

    Cool periods in the North Atlantic have been linked to hydrological changes over the Sahel region. It has been postulated that the Sahara-Sahel border shifted southwards during the last Heinrich event, which resulted in the semi-arid Sahel becoming more arid. This would drive changes in dust emission rates over North Africa. In fact proxy data indicates North Africa was dustier during the last Heinrich event than during the LGM. Recent analysis of CMIP5 models suggests the Western Sahel may become drier later this century. This may be analogous to past changes that have occurred in this region. Here we examine the implications of a southward shift in the Sahara-Sahel border in the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Imposed changes in soil erodibility over the Sahel region results in greater dust emission rates and transport across the tropical Atlantic. Greater dust loading cools local sea surface temperatures and may have implications on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Our idealized runs can be used to understand how changes in dust forced climate change during the past as well as how potential future hydrological changes over the western Sahel can impact Atlantic climate.

  4. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  5. Regional sun climate interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, A.

    2005-11-01

    It is a clear fact that the Earth's climate has been changing since the pre-industrial era, especially during the last three decades. This change is generally attributed to three main factors: greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and solar activity changes. However, these factors are not all-independent. Furthermore, contributions of the above-mentioned factors are still disputed. We sought whether a parallelism between the solar activity variations and the changes in the Earth's climate can be established. For this, we compared the solar irradiance model data reconstructed by J. Lean to surface air temperature variations of two countries: USA and Japan. Comparison was carried out in two categories: correlations and periodicities. We utilized data from a total of 60 stations, 18 in USA and 42 in Japan. USA data range from 1900 to 1995, while Japan data range from 1900 to 1990. Our analyses yielded a 42 per cent correlation for USA and a 79 per cent for Japan between the temperature and solar irradiance. Moreover, both data sets showed similar periodicities. Hence, our results indicate marked influence of solar activity variations on the Earth's climate.

  6. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

    2017-01-01

    Abrupt changes in climate have occurred in many locations around the globe over the last glacial cycle, with pronounced temperature swings on timescales of decades or less in the North Atlantic. The global pattern of these changes suggests that they reflect variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This review examines the evidence from ocean sediments for ocean circulation change over these abrupt events. The evidence for changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC associated with the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events is strong. Although it has been difficult to directly document changes in the AMOC over the relatively short Dansgaard-Oeschger events, there is recent evidence supporting AMOC changes over most of these oscillations as well. The lack of direct evidence for circulation changes over the shortest events leaves open the possibility of other driving mechanisms for millennial-scale climate variability.

  7. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

    2017-01-03

    Abrupt changes in climate have occurred in many locations around the globe over the last glacial cycle, with pronounced temperature swings on timescales of decades or less in the North Atlantic. The global pattern of these changes suggests that they reflect variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This review examines the evidence from ocean sediments for ocean circulation change over these abrupt events. The evidence for changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC associated with the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events is strong. Although it has been difficult to directly document changes in the AMOC over the relatively short Dansgaard-Oeschger events, there is recent evidence supporting AMOC changes over most of these oscillations as well. The lack of direct evidence for circulation changes over the shortest events leaves open the possibility of other driving mechanisms for millennial-scale climate variability.

  8. Pleistocene climates in the atlantic and pacific oceans: a comparison based on deep-sea sediments.

    PubMed

    Ericson, D B; Wollin, G

    1970-03-13

    Comparison of Pleistocene climatic records defined by variations in abundance of planktonic Foraminifera in three cores from the southeastern Pacific with similar records in cores from the Atlantic suggests that times of warm surface water in this region of the Pacific were at least partly synchronous with times of cool water in the Altantic. This conclusion opposes the Milankovitch theory of the causation of ice ages, but it harmonizes with a modified form of Simpson's hypothesis.

  9. The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens Atlantic forest tiger moths.

    PubMed

    Ferro, Viviane G; Lemes, Priscila; Melo, Adriano S; Loyola, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Climate change leads to species' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future.

  10. The Reduced Effectiveness of Protected Areas under Climate Change Threatens Atlantic Forest Tiger Moths

    PubMed Central

    Ferro, Viviane G.; Lemes, Priscila; Melo, Adriano S.; Loyola, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Climate change leads to species' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future. PMID:25229422

  11. Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, D J; Scourse, J D; Halloran, P R; Nederbragt, A J; Wanamaker, A D; Butler, P G; Richardson, C A; Heinemeier, J; Eiríksson, J; Knudsen, K L; Hall, I R

    2016-12-06

    Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ(18)O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ(18)O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000-1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing.

  12. Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium

    PubMed Central

    Reynolds, D. J.; Scourse, J. D.; Halloran, P. R.; Nederbragt, A. J.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Butler, P. G.; Richardson, C. A.; Heinemeier, J.; Eiríksson, J.; Knudsen, K. L.; Hall, I. R.

    2016-01-01

    Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ18O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ18O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000–1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing. PMID:27922004

  13. Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reynolds, D. J.; Scourse, J. D.; Halloran, P. R.; Nederbragt, A. J.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Butler, P. G.; Richardson, C. A.; Heinemeier, J.; Eiríksson, J.; Knudsen, K. L.; Hall, I. R.

    2016-12-01

    Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ18O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ18O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000-1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing.

  14. Linking North Atlantic Teleconnections to Latitudinal Variability of Wave Climate Along the North American Atlantic Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provancha, C.; Adams, P. N.; Hegermiller, C.; Storlazzi, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Shoreline change via coastal erosion and accretion is largely influenced by variations in ocean wave climate. Identifying the sources of these variations is challenging because the timing of wave energy delivery varies over multiple timescales within ocean basins. We present the results of an investigation of USACE Wave Information Studies hindcast hourly wave heights, periods, and directions along the North American Atlantic coast from 1980-2012, designed to explore links between wave climate and teleconnection patterns. Trends in median and extreme significant wave heights (SWHs) demonstrate that mean monthly SWHs increased from 1 to 5 cm/yr along the roughly 3000 km reach of study area, with changes in hurricane season waves appearing to be most influential in producing the overall trends. Distributions of SWHs categorized by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, show that positive-period NAO SWHs are greater than negative-period NAO SWHs along the entire eastern seaboard (25°N to 45°N). The most prominent wave direction off Cape Cod, MA during positive-period NAO is approximately 105°, as compared to approximately 75° during negative-period NAO. Prominent wave directions between Cape Canaveral, FL, and Savannah, GA exhibit a similar shift but during opposite phases of the NAO. The results of this analysis suggest that the atmosphere-ocean interactions associated with contrasting NAO phases can significantly change the wave climate observed offshore along the North American Atlantic coast, altering alongshore wave energy fluxes and sediment transport patterns along the coast.

  15. Waveform Tomography of the South Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Celli, N. L.; Lebedev, S.; Schaeffer, A. J.; Gaina, C.

    2016-12-01

    The rapid growth in broadband seismic data, along with developments in waveform tomography techniques, allow us to greatly improve the data sampling in the southern hemisphere and resolve the upper-mantle structure beneath the South Atlantic region at a new level of detail. We have gathered a very large waveform dataset, including all publicly available data from permanent and temporary networks. Our S-velocity tomographic model is constrained by vertical-component waveform fits, computed using the Automated Multimode Inversion of surface, S and multiple S waves. Each seismogram fit provides a set of linear equations describing 1D average velocity perturbations within approximate sensitivity volumes, with respect to a 3D reference model. All the equations are then combined into a large linear system and inverted jointly for a model of shear- and compressional-wave speeds and azimuthal anisotropy within the lithosphere and underlying mantle. The isotropic-average shear speeds are proxies for temperature and composition at depth, while azimuthal anisotropy provides evidence on the past and present deformation in the lithosphere and asthenosphere beneath the region. We resolve the complex boundaries of the mantle roots of South America's and Africa's cratons and the deep low-velocity anomalies beneath volcanic areas in South America. Pronounced lithospheric high seismic velocity anomalies beneath the Argentine Basin suggest that its anomalously deep seafloor, previously attributed to dynamic topography, is mainly due to anomalously cold, thick lithosphere. Major hotspots show low-velocity anomalies extending substantially deeper than those beneath the mid-ocean ridge. The Vema Hotspot shows a major, hot asthenospheric anomaly beneath thick, cold oceanic lithosphere. The mantle lithosphere beneath the Walvis Ridge—a hotspot track—shows normal cooling. The volcanic Cameroon Line, in contrast, is characterized by thin lithosphere beneath the locations of recent

  16. Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Booth, Ben B B; Dunstone, Nick J; Halloran, Paul R; Andrews, Timothy; Bellouin, Nicolas

    2012-04-04

    Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

  17. Holocene climate changes in the Cape Hatteras region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naughton, F.; Keigwin, L. D.; Peteet, D. M.; Desprat, S.; Oliveira, D.; Abrantes, F.

    2013-12-01

    In the last century many studies have been done in various naturally occurring archives to understand the nature, timing and causes of Holocene natural climate oscillations. Most of the available Holocene climatic reconstructions are however, not based on a direct comparison of terrestrial, marine and ice records making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the interactions of the atmosphere-ocean-land systems and their relationship in global climate variability. Few studies based on direct sea land comparison have been reported for some key areas of the eastern North Atlantic but almost none in the western North Atlantic. Here we present a direct comparison between terrestrial (pollen) and marine (planktonic δ18O) proxies from a well dated (ten AMS 14C dates on planktonic foraminifera and seaweed) slope core (KNR 178-2 JPC 32), retrieved close to Cape Hatteras (35°58.58'N, 74°42.77'W, 1006 m). This study provides information on eastern North America vegetation and on the northwestern Atlantic sea surface response to both Holocene long-term and rapid climate changes. Five intervals, marked mainly by changes in temperate trees are associated with long term climate shifts (12000-9150 ka; 9150-7250 ka; 7250-5350 ka; 5350-2800 ka; 2800-700 ka). Over these intervals, several abrupt cooling events are noted, as well as several indications of shifts in moisture. The comparison of our data with those available and unpublished records from several key sites of the North Atlantic region, gives insights into the nature, timing and causes of Holocene climate oscillations in the North Atlantic region and in particular off Cape Hatteras.

  18. Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boudreault, Mathieu; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Camargo, Suzana J.

    2017-04-01

    We analyze, using Poisson regressions, the main climate influences on North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The analysis is performed using not only various time series of basin-wide storm counts but also various series of regional clusters, taking into account shortcomings of the hurricane database through estimates of missing storms. The analysis confirms that tropical cyclones forming in different regions of the Atlantic are susceptible to different climate influences. We also investigate the presence of trends in these various time series, both at the basin-wide and cluster levels, and show that, even after accounting for possible missing storms, there remains an upward trend in the eastern part of the basin and a downward trend in the western part. Using model selection algorithms, we show that the best model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the recent past is constructed using Atlantic sea surface temperature and upper tropospheric temperature, while for the 1878-2015 period, the chosen covariates are Atlantic sea surface temperature and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We also note that the presence of these artificial trends can impact the selection of the best covariates. If the underlying series shows an upward trend, then the mean Atlantic sea surface temperature captures both interannual variability and the upward trend, artificial or not. The relative sea surface temperature is chosen instead for stationary counts. Finally, we show that the predictive capability of the statistical models investigated is low for U.S. landfalling hurricanes but can be considerably improved when forecasting combinations of clusters whose hurricanes are most likely to make landfall.

  19. West African Climate and Linkages with the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Basin and Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paz, S.; Tourre, Y. M.

    2010-09-01

    large-scale and multi-temporal circulation, with SLP (SST) ‘footprints' over the Atlantic Ocean (AMO) and the eastern Mediterranean (NAWA) climate, and their linkages with Sahelian climate variability. Winter AMO can thus be viewed as a valuable predictors for Sahel rainfall intensity. The AMO is expected to exhibit a predominantly positive phase for the upcoming decades which could enhance Sahelian rainfall during that period. Within the climate change context, the above results are important in regions where public health and socio-economical issues are highly dependent on multi-temporal climate variability. It is hoped that indices presented here can be used as predictors by modelers and decision-makers to improve mitigation of regional multi-disciplinary impacts from climate variability and contribute to early warning systems (EWS).

  20. Adjustment of the global climate to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Wei; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Chiang, John C. H.

    We explore the adjustment of the global climate to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC), with a particular focus on the energetics. The slowdown is induced by a sudden freshwater perturbation in the North Atlantic. Reduction in the AMOC decreases northward ocean heat transport (OHT) and leads to cooling in the northern high latitudes. This cooling results in a local reduction to the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiative heat loss and an increase in northward atmospheric heat transport (AHT). The energy for the increased northward AHT comes from a combination of increased downward radiative flux at the TOA in the southern tropics and anomalous heating from the ocean in the northern tropics, both of which are consequences of the southward shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Hence, viewed in the energetics framework, the atmospheric response to an AMOC slowdown extends throughout the Northern Hemisphere and into the tropics, and suggests an intimate coupling between the two regions. The mechanisms for the high-latitude-tropical coupling are examined. When comparing freshwater perturbation experiments in modern and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) background states, we found that the changes to the northward OHT, and the mechanisms of global adjustment to the AMOC slowdown, were qualitatively similar in both instances. The one major difference is that freshening in the LGM climate induces a significantly stronger sea ice feedback than in a modern climate, allowing greater local cooling of the North Atlantic, and causing a commensurately larger global climate adjustment.

  1. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Beaugrand, Grégory; Edwards, Martin; Brander, Keith; Luczak, Christophe; Ibanez, Frederic

    2008-11-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.

  2. Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond.

    PubMed Central

    Stenseth, Nils Chr; Ottersen, Geir; Hurrell, James W; Mysterud, Atle; Lima, Mauricio; Chan, Kung-Sik; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Adlandsvik, Bjørn

    2003-01-01

    Whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather and climate variability worldwide, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant climate pattern in the North Atlantic region. Both climate systems have been demonstrated to considerably influence ecological processes. Several other large-scale climate patterns also exist. Although less well known outside the field of climatology, these patterns are also likely to be of ecological interest. We provide an overview of these climate patterns within the context of the ecological effects of climate variability. The application of climate indices by definition reduces complex space and time variability into simple measures, 'packages of weather'. The disadvantages of using global climate indices are all related to the fact that another level of problems are added to the ecology-climate interface, namely the link between global climate indices and local climate. We identify issues related to: (i) spatial variation; (ii) seasonality; (iii) non-stationarity; (iv) nonlinearity; and (v) lack of correlation in the relationship between global and local climate. The main advantages of using global climate indices are: (i) biological effects may be related more strongly to global indices than to any single local climate variable; (ii) it helps to avoid problems of model selection; (iii) it opens the possibility for ecologists to make predictions; and (iv) they are typically readily available on Internet. PMID:14561270

  3. Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond.

    PubMed

    Stenseth, Nils Chr; Ottersen, Geir; Hurrell, James W; Mysterud, Atle; Lima, Mauricio; Chan, Kung-Sik; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Adlandsvik, Bjørn

    2003-10-22

    Whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather and climate variability worldwide, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant climate pattern in the North Atlantic region. Both climate systems have been demonstrated to considerably influence ecological processes. Several other large-scale climate patterns also exist. Although less well known outside the field of climatology, these patterns are also likely to be of ecological interest. We provide an overview of these climate patterns within the context of the ecological effects of climate variability. The application of climate indices by definition reduces complex space and time variability into simple measures, 'packages of weather'. The disadvantages of using global climate indices are all related to the fact that another level of problems are added to the ecology-climate interface, namely the link between global climate indices and local climate. We identify issues related to: (i) spatial variation; (ii) seasonality; (iii) non-stationarity; (iv) nonlinearity; and (v) lack of correlation in the relationship between global and local climate. The main advantages of using global climate indices are: (i) biological effects may be related more strongly to global indices than to any single local climate variable; (ii) it helps to avoid problems of model selection; (iii) it opens the possibility for ecologists to make predictions; and (iv) they are typically readily available on Internet.

  4. AVHRR images capture natural calamities in Mid-Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalluri, S. N. V.; Borak, J. S.

    The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Fblar Orbiting Environmental satellite is used to assess the severity of natural disasters including drought and vegetative conditions in this study. Satellite images captured the impact of extremely dry conditions suffered throughout the Mid-Atlantic region during the summer of 1999, which was dubbed as the drought of the century [Eos, August 17, 1999, p.365]. According to NOAA, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Rhode Island endured their driest periods from April through July 1999 in 105 years of recordkeeping. Based on statistics from the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, and West Virginia exhibited departures of 26%, 29%, 32%, and 35%, respectively from normal precipitation totals during the 1999 summer According to the National Weather Service, a deficiency of 15% or more over a 6-month period can be considered as the onset of drought. Reduced rainfall in this region resulted in low soil moisture, which has a significant impact on vegetation conditions.

  5. North Atlantic climate evolution through the Plio-Pleistocene climate transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, K. T.; Sosdian, S.; White, H. E.; Rosenthal, Y.

    2010-12-01

    During the Plio-Pleistocene, the Earth witnessed the growth of large northern hemisphere ice sheets and profound changes in both North Atlantic and global climate. Here, we present a ~ 3.2 Myr long, orbitally-resolved alkenone sea surface temperature (SST) record from Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 607 (41°N, 33°W, water depth 3427 m) in the North Atlantic Ocean. We employ a multi-proxy approach comparing these new observations with existing bottom water temperature (BWT) and stable isotope time series from the same site and SST time series from other sites, shedding new light on Plio-Pleistocene climate change. North Atlantic temperature records show a long-term cooling with two major steps occurring during the late Pliocene (3.1 to 2.4 Ma) and the mid-Pleistocene (1.5 to 0.8 Ma), closely timed with intervals of major change in northern hemisphere ice sheets. Existing evidence suggests that the late Pliocene cooling may have been caused by a thresholded response to secular changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2). While an explanation for the mid-Pleistocene cooling may involve glacial-interglacial changes in atmospheric CO 2, it seems to also require a change in the behavior of the ice sheets themselves. North Atlantic climate responses were closely phased with benthic oxygen isotope (δ 18O) changes during the "41 kyr world," indicating a strong common northern hemisphere high latitude imprint on North Atlantic climate signals. After the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT), North Atlantic SST records and the Site 607 benthic carbon isotope (δ 13C) record are more closely phased with δ 18O, whereas BWT significantly leads δ 18O in the 100 kyr band, suggesting a shift from a northern to a southern hemisphere influence on North Atlantic BWT. We propose that the expansion of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) across the MPT increased the production and export of Antarctic Bottom Water from the Southern Ocean and subsequently controlled its incursion

  6. Multidecadal Atlantic climate variability and its impact on marine pelagic communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Victoria; Edwards, Martin; Olhede, Sofia C.

    2014-05-01

    A large scale analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) and climate variability over the North Atlantic and its interactions with plankton over the North East Atlantic was carried out to better understand what drives both temperature and species abundance. The spatio-temporal pattern of SST was found to correspond to known climate indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The spatial influence of these indices is heterogeneous. Although the AMO is present across all regions, it is most strongly represented in the SST signal in the subpolar gyre region. The NAO instead is strongly weighted in the North Sea and the pattern of its influence is oscillatory in space with a wavelength of approximately 6000 km. Natural oscillations might obscure the influence of climate change effects, making it difficult to determine how much of the variation is attributable to longer term trends. In order to separate the influences of different climate signals the SST signals were decomposed in to spatial and temporal components using principal component analysis (PCA). A similar analysis is carried out on various indicator species of plankton: Calanus finmarchicus, Phytoplankton Colour Index and total copepod abundance, as well as phytoplankton and zooplankton communities. By comparing the two outputs it is apparent that the dominant driver is the recent warming trend, which has a negative influence on C. finmarchicus and total copepods, but has a positive one on phytoplankton colour. However natural oscillations also influence the abundance of plankton, in particular the AMO is a driver of diatom abundance. Fourier principal component analysis, an approach which is novel in terms of the ecological data, was used to analyse the behaviour of various communities averaged over space. The zooplankton community is found to be primarily influenced by climate warming trends. The analysis provides

  7. Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years.

    PubMed

    Mann, Michael E; Woodruff, Jonathan D; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Zhang, Zhihua

    2009-08-13

    Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here we place recent activity in a longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical cyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate uses a previously published statistical model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity driven by proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during medieval times (around ad 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The statistical model indicates that the medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results from the reinforcing effects of La-Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.

  8. Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Roebber, Paul

    2016-04-01

    We simulate the seasonal cycle of the Great Lakes' water temperature and lake ice using an idealized coupled lake-atmosphere-ice model. Under identical seasonally varying boundary conditions, this model exhibits more than one seasonally varying equilibrium solutions, which we associate with distinct regional climate regimes. Colder/warmer regimes are characterized by abundant/scarce amounts of wintertime ice and cooler/warmer summer temperatures, respectively. These regimes are also evident in the observations of the Great Lakes' climate variability over recent few decades, and are found to be most pronounced for Lake Superior, the deepest of the Great Lakes, consistent with model predictions. Multiple climate regimes of the Great Lakes also play a crucial role in the accelerated warming of the lakes relative to the surrounding land regions in response to larger-scale global warming. We discuss the physical origin and characteristics of multiple climate regimes over the lakes, as well as their implications for a longer-term regional climate variability.

  9. Influence of the Amazon/Orinoco Plume on the summertime Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

    2010-11-01

    A plume of fresh water forms in the Atlantic due to discharge from the Amazon and Orinoco rivers and creates a stable barrier layer near the surface that is associated with warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The boreal summer atmospheric response to this sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is investigated using a regional atmospheric model. Results from two ensembles, one with the plume SSTA removed, and the other with an idealized plume SSTA imposed, reveal that the scale of the SSTA forcing is large enough to influence the summer climate over the tropical western Atlantic and Central America. Rainfall increases over the SSTAs and downstream over the Caribbean Sea and Central America, as sensible and latent heating associated with the plume SSTAs force a Rossby/Kelvin wave dynamical response. The result is westward shift by 12° of longitude of the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone, a northward repositioning of the summertime subtropical anticyclone extension over the Gulf of Mexico, and increased moisture convergence into Central America. Warm SSTAs associated with the plume also influence simulated summer tropical Atlantic storms. The presence of the plume increases the number of Atlantic basin storms by 60% (i.e., 4.66 more storms). An increase in storm intensity also occurs, with a 61% increase of the number of storms that reach tropical storm and hurricane strength. However, these storms tend to be shorter lived and are associated with a 12% decrease in the number of tropical storm days. Storm trajectories also shift westward over the western Atlantic associated with the presence of the plume, bringing them closer to the U.S. coast as both the steering winds and vertical wind shear over the Atlantic are modified. These results suggest that the August storm systems may be more likely to track closer to the U.S. coast and/or over the Gulf of Mexico. Since the Amazon and Orinoco rivers are fed primarily by rainfall in the Amazon Basin during

  10. Path Dependence of Regional Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrington, Tyler; Zickfeld, Kirsten

    2013-04-01

    Path dependence of the climate response to CO2 forcing has been investigated from a global mean perspective, with evidence suggesting that long-term global mean temperature and precipitation changes are proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, and independent of emissions pathway. Little research, however, has been done on path dependence of regional climate changes, particularly in areas that could be affected by tipping points. Here, we utilize the UVic Earth System Climate Model version 2.9, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. It consists of a 3-dimensional ocean general circulation model, coupled with a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, and a thermodynamic energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere. This is then coupled with a terrestrial carbon cycle model and an ocean carbon-cycle model containing an inorganic carbon and marine ecosystem component. Model coverage is global with a zonal resolution of 3.6 degrees and meridional resolution of 1.8 degrees. The model is forced with idealized emissions scenarios across five cumulative emission groups (1300 GtC, 2300 GtC, 3300 GtC, 4300 GtC, and 5300 GtC) to explore the path dependence of (and the possibility of hysteresis in) regional climate changes. Emission curves include both fossil carbon emissions and emissions from land use changes, and span a variety of peak and decline scenarios with varying emission rates, as well as overshoot and instantaneous pulse scenarios. Tipping points being explored include those responsible for the disappearance of summer Arctic sea-ice, the irreversible melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the dieback of the Amazonian Rainforest. Preliminary results suggest that global mean climate change after cessation of CO2 emissions is independent of the emissions pathway, only varying with total cumulative emissions, in accordance with results from earlier studies. Forthcoming analysis will investigate path

  11. Regional Highlights of Climate Change

    Treesearch

    David L. Peterson; J.M. Wolken; Teresa Hollingsworth; Christian Giardina; J.S. Littell; Linda Joyce; Chris Swanston; Stephen Handler; Lindsey Rustad; Steve McNulty

    2014-01-01

    Climatic extremes, ecological disturbance, and their interactions are expected to have major effects on ecosystems and social systems in most regions of the United States in the coming decades. In Alaska, where the largest temperature increases have occurred, permafrost is melting, carbon is being released, and fire regimes are changing, leading to a...

  12. The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabbatelli, Thomas A.; Mann, Michael E.

    2007-09-01

    We analyzed annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts from 1871-2004, considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (August-October or `ASO') Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main development region (`MDR': 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted m = 15 ± 4 total named storms for the 2007 season.

  13. Impact of the North Atlantic dipole on climate changes over Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya

    2017-04-01

    Hydrophysical and meteorological characteristics of negative (1948-1976, 1999-2015) and positive (1977-1998) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) / Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in the North Atlantic and Eurasia are constructed and investigated. Specifically, the near-surface temperature, sea-level atmospheric pressure, wind speed, heat content of the upper 700 m ocean layer, water temperature and salinity at various depths, the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere are analyzed. The fields obtained from different sources (20thC_ReanV2c, ERA-20C, JRA-55, NCEP/NCAR, HadCRUT4, HadSLP2, NODC, Ishii, SODA, OAFlux, HadSST3, COBE2, ERSSTv4) are in good agreement and complement each other. This gives important information about the hydrometeorological conditions in the region under study. Analysis of these data has shown that in the upper 1000 m North Atlantic layer there is a thermal dipole which can be interpreted as an oceanic analog of the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An index of the North Atlantic Dipole (NAD) as the difference between the mean heat contents in the upper 700 m oceanic layer between the regions (50°-70° N; 60°-10° W) and (20°-40° N; 80°-30° W) is proposed. A possible physical mechanism of the internal oscillations with a quasi-60-year period in the North Atlantics-Eurasia system of ocean-atmosphere interactions is discussed. Dipole spatial structure from observations datasets and re-analyses were compared with the results of the Historical Experiment from the climate models of the CMIP5 project. It is found that several climate models reproduce dipole spatial structure of the near-surface temperature and sea level pressure anomalies similarly to these fields in the re-analyses considered. However, the phase diagrams of the gradient of near-surface temperature and sea level pressure between the Azores High and Island Low from climate models do not separate on subsets as the

  14. Did Paleogene North Atlantic rift-related eruptions drive early Eocene climate cooling?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jolley, David W.; Widdowson, Mike

    2005-02-01

    The delivery of volcanogenic sulphur into the upper atmosphere by explosive eruptions is known to cause significant temporary climate cooling. Therefore, phreatomagmatic and phreatoplinian eruptions occurring during the final rifting stages of active flood basalt provinces provide a potent mechanism for triggering climate change. During the early Eocene, the northeast Atlantic margin was subjected to repeated ashfall for 0.5 m.y. This was the result of extensive phreatomagmatic activity along 3000 km of the opening northeast Atlantic rift. These widespread, predominantly basaltic ashes are now preserved in marine sediments of the Balder Formation and its equivalents, and occur over an area extending from the Faroe Islands to Denmark and southern England. These ash-bearing sediments also contain pollen and spore floras derived from low diversity forests that grew in cooler, drier climates than were experienced either before or after these highly explosive eruptions. In addition, coeval plant macrofossil evidence from the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, USA, also shows a comparable pattern of vegetation change. The coincidence of the ashes and cooler climate pollen and spore floras in northwest Europe identifies volcanism as the primary cause of climate cooling. Estimates show that whilst relatively few phreatomagmatic eruptive centres along the 3000 km opening rift system could readily generate 0.5-1 °C cooling, on an annual basis, only persistent or repeated volcanic phases would have been able to achieve the long-term cooling effect observed in the floral record. We propose that the cumulative effect of repeated Balder Formation eruptions initiated a biodiversity crisis in the northeast Atlantic margin forests. Only the decline of this persistent volcanic activity, and the subsequent climatic warming at the start of the Eocene Thermal Maximum allowed the growth of subtropical forests to develop across the region.

  15. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  16. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  17. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    PubMed Central

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  18. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  19. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-06-23

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  20. Atlantic overturning responses to Late Pleistocene climate forcings.

    PubMed

    Lisiecki, Lorraine E; Raymo, Maureen E; Curry, William B

    2008-11-06

    The factors driving glacial changes in ocean overturning circulation are not well understood. On the basis of a comparison of 20 climate variables over the past four glacial cycles, the SPECMAP project proposed that summer insolation at high northern latitudes (that is, Milankovitch forcing) drives the same sequence of ocean circulation and other climate responses over 100-kyr eccentricity cycles, 41-kyr obliquity cycles and 23-kyr precession cycles. SPECMAP analysed the circulation response at only a few sites in the Atlantic Ocean, however, and the phase of circulation response has been shown to vary by site and orbital band. Here we test the SPECMAP hypothesis by measuring the phase of orbital responses in benthic delta(13)C (a proxy indicator of ocean nutrient content) at 24 sites throughout the Atlantic over the past 425 kyr. On the basis of delta(13)C responses at 3,000-4,010 m water depth, we find that maxima in Milankovitch forcing are associated with greater mid-depth overturning in the obliquity band but less overturning in the precession band. This suggests that Atlantic overturning is strongly sensitive to factors beyond ice volume and summer insolation at high northern latitudes. A better understanding of these processes could lead to improvements in model estimates of overturning rates, which range from a 40 per cent increase to a 40 per cent decrease at the Last Glacial Maximum and a 10-50 per cent decrease over the next 140 yr in response to projected increases in atmospheric CO(2) (ref. 4).

  1. Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

    2016-04-01

    Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is

  2. Climate history in the south Atlantic subtropical gyre over the last 4 Ma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wojcieszek, D. E.; Dekens, P. S.

    2010-12-01

    The early Pliocene (3-5 Ma) is the most recent time in the Earth’s history when climate was significantly warmer than today. Even though the climatic boundary conditions (i.e. incoming solar radiation, distribution of continents, atmospheric pCO2) were similar to today, the average global temperature was about 3-4°C warmer, ice sheets were smaller, and the sea level was about 35 m higher. Previous studies show that in the early Pliocene, in both Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, sea surface temperatures (SST) of the eastern equatorial and coastal upwelling regions were warmer than today (by ~2-9°C), while western equatorial warm pools had SST similar to today. As a consequence, zonal and meridional SST gradients were reduced. According to atmospheric modeling studies, the reduced gradients played a role in sustaining Pliocene warmth and the increasing gradients, caused by the cooling of the upwelling regions, favored the northern hemisphere glaciation. However, the lack of data from non-upwelling regions forces these models to interpolate SSTs based on the gradients in the modern ocean. This research is the first to provide data from a non-upwelling region in the south Atlantic subtropical gyre. We present G.sacculifer Mg/Ca and δ18O records at the ODP site 1264 (28.53°S; 2.85°E, 2505 m water depth), located on the Walvis Ridge in the south Atlantic subtropical gyre. The Mg/Ca SST record displays no long-term trend over the past 4 Ma. The south Atlantic subtropical gyre was not affected by the forcing that caused the 8-9°C cooling of the Benguela upwelling, as recorded at ODP sites 1082 and 1084. The difference between SST trends at ODP sites 1082 and 1084 and the ODP site 1264 indicate a significant change in SST gradients between south Atlantic subtropical gyre and the Benguela upwelling region. The complementary δ18O record will provide information about local salinity changes due to ice volume changes. The combined records will give us a thorough picture of

  3. Reliability of regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahrens, W.; Block, A.; Böhm, U.; Hauffe, D.; Keuler, K.; Kücken, M.; Nocke, Th.

    2003-04-01

    Quantification of uncertainty becomes more and more a key issue for assessing the trustability of future climate scenarios. In addition to the mean conditions, climate impact modelers focus in particular on extremes. Before generating such scenarios using e.g. dynamic regional climate models, a careful validation of present-day simulations should be performed to determine the range of errors for the quantities of interest under recent conditions as a raw estimate of their uncertainty in the future. Often, multiple aspects shall be covered together, and the required simulation accuracy depends on the user's demand. In our approach, a massive parallel regional climate model shall be used on the one hand to generate "long-term" high-resolution climate scenarios for several decades, and on the other hand to provide very high-resolution ensemble simulations of future dry spells or heavy rainfall events. To diagnosis the model's performance for present-day simulations, we have recently developed and tested a first version of a validation and visualization chain for this model. It is, however, applicable in a much more general sense and could be used as a common test bed for any regional climate model aiming at this type of simulations. Depending on the user's interest, integrated quality measures can be derived for near-surface parameters using multivariate techniques and multidimensional distance measures in a first step. At this point, advanced visualization techniques have been developed and included to allow for visual data mining and to qualitatively identify dominating aspects and regularities. Univariate techniques that are especially designed to assess climatic aspects in terms of statistical properties can then be used to quantitatively diagnose the error contributions of the individual used parameters. Finally, a comprehensive in-depth diagnosis tool allows to investigate, why the model produces the obtained near-surface results to answer the question if the

  4. Pairwise comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last 2,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanhijärvi, Sami; Tingley, Martin P.; Korhola, Atte

    2013-10-01

    Existing multi-proxy climate reconstruction methods assume the suitably transformed proxy time series are linearly related to the target climate variable, which is likely a simplifying assumption for many proxy records. Furthermore, with a single exception, these methods face problems with varying temporal resolutions of the proxy data. Here we introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. The resulting unitless composite time series is subsequently calibrated to the instrumental record to provide an estimate of past climate. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset

  5. Climate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Anthony J; Schoeman, David S

    2004-09-10

    It is now widely accepted that global warming is occurring, yet its effects on the world's largest ecosystem, the marine pelagic realm, are largely unknown. We show that sea surface warming in the Northeast Atlantic is accompanied by increasing phytoplankton abundance in cooler regions and decreasing phytoplankton abundance in warmer regions. This impact propagates up the food web (bottom-up control) through copepod herbivores to zooplankton carnivores because of tight trophic coupling. Future warming is therefore likely to alter the spatial distribution of primary and secondary pelagic production, affecting ecosystem services and placing additional stress on already-depleted fish and mammal populations.

  6. Tropical Rain Forest and Climate Dynamics of the Atlantic Lowland, Southern Brazil, during the Late Quaternary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behling, Hermann; Negrelle, Raquel R. B.

    2001-11-01

    Palynological analysis of a core from the Atlantic rain forest region in Brazil provides unprecedented insight into late Quaternary vegetational and climate dynamics within this southern tropical lowland. The 576-cm-long sediment core is from a former beach-ridge "valley," located 3 km inland from the Atlantic Ocean. Radio-carbon dates suggest that sediment deposition began prior to 35,000 14C yr B.P. Between ca. 37,500 and ca. 27,500 14C yr B.P. and during the last glacial maximum (LGM; ca. 27,500 to ca. 14,500 14C yr B.P.), the coastal rain forest was replaced by grassland and patches of cold-adapted forest. Tropical trees, such as Alchornea, Moraceae/Urticaceae, and Arecaceae, were almost completely absent during the LGM. Furthermore, their distributions were shifted at least 750 km further north, suggesting a cooling between 3°C and 7°C and a strengthening of Antarctic cold fronts during full-glacial times. A depauperate tropical rain forest developed as part of a successional sequence after ca. 12,300 14C yr B.P. There is no evidence that Araucaria trees occurred in the Atlantic lowland during glacial times. The rain forest was disturbed by marine incursions during the early Holocene period until ca. 6100 14C yr B.P., as indicated by the presence of microforaminifera. A closed Atlantic rain forest then developed at the study site.

  7. Quasi-periodic Climate Teleconnections via the North Atlantic Oscillation: A New Perspective From Tree Rings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyers, S. R.; Pagani, M.

    2004-12-01

    Internal modes of climate variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly contribute to regional weather patterns on an inter-annual basis. Changes in the behavior of these modes over decadal and/or centennial timescales may represent an important driver of past climate events and future climate change. Importantly, if the internal modes express band-limited (periodic to quasi-periodic) variability, they provide a useful template for climate forecasting. Unfortunately, our ability to directly quantify the periodic/quasi-periodic nature of climate response to the internal modes is constrained by the limited temporal extent of instrumental records. In this study we present a novel approach toward recognition of band-limited climatic effects of the NAO in proxy records that span the past 400 years. The spatial climatic response of the NAO between northern and southern Europe provides a framework for detecting the influence of the NAO in proxy climate records. Specifically, if the NAO-forced climate signal is present it should be strongly correlated and anti-phased between the northern and southern regions of western Europe. To prospect for the NAO signal in paleoclimate data we employ independent networks of tree ring width series from Scandinavia and the Mediterranean. These locations were selected because modern instrumental records of the NAO and precipitation are significantly correlated in these regions, and tree ring width sensitivity to climate variability is maximized. The tree-ring width data from western Europe reveals a distinct 25-year quasi-periodic synchronization of climate change between Scandinavia and the Mediterranean during the 17th-20th centuries. Based on the dipole character of this signal, we propose that it is representative of climate forcing via the NAO. On this timescale of climate variability, dry/cold climate events in northern Europe are closely tied to wet events in

  8. Interannual-to-decadal air-sea interactions in the tropical Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo

    2001-09-01

    The present research identifies modes of atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Atlantic region and the mechanisms by which air-sea interactions influence the regional climate. Novelties of the present work are (1)the use of relevant ocean and atmosphere variables important to identity coupled variability in the system. (2)The use of new data sets, including realistic diabatic heating. (3)The study of interactions between ocean and atmosphere relevant at interannual-to-decadal time scales. Two tropical modes of variability are identified during the period 1958-1993, the Atlantic Niño mode and the Interhemispheric mode. Those modes have defined structures in both ocean and atmosphere. Anomalous sea surface temperatures and winds are associated to anomalous placement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). They develop maximum amplitude during boreal summer and spring, respectively. The anomalous positioning of the ITCZ produces anomalous precipitation in some places like Nordeste, Brazil and the Caribbean region. Through the use of a diagnostic primitive equation model, it is found that the most important terms controlling local anomalous surface winds over the ocean are boundary layer temperature gradients and diabatic heating anomalies at low levels (below 780 mb). The latter is of particular importance in the deep tropics in producing the anomalous meridional response to the surface circulation. Simulated latent heat anomalies indicate that a thermodynamic feedback establishes positive feedbacks at both sides of the equator and west of 20°W in the deep tropics and a negative feedback in front of the north west coast of Africa for the Interhemispheric mode. This thermodynamic feedback only establishes negative feedbacks for the Atlantic Niño mode. Transients establish some connection between the tropical Atlantic and other basins. Interhemispheric gradients of surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic influence winds in the midlatitude North

  9. Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

  10. Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum.

    PubMed

    Shindell, D T; Schmidt, G A; Mann, M E; Rind, D; Waple, A

    2001-12-07

    We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 degrees to 0.4 degrees C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation as solar irradiance decreases. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 degrees to 2 degrees C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

  11. Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming.

    PubMed

    Zahn, Matthias; von Storch, Hans

    2010-09-16

    Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones-termed polar lows-constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase.

  12. Influence of the North Atlantic on climate change in the Barents Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glok, Natalia; Alekseev, Genrikh; Smirnov, Aleksander; Vyasilova, Anastasia

    2015-04-01

    This study is based on the observations taken from the meteorological archives, satellite and historic visual observations of sea ice, global SST, data of water temperature in the upper layer on the section in the Barents Sea. For processing data was used factor analysis, calculation of correlation matrices with different delay between the Barents Sea and selected areas in North Atlantic. It is shown that the inflow of Atlantic water into the Barents Sea has a major influence on the climate of the region and its changes affect the variations of all climate characteristics. Decadal and interannual changes of air temperature in the Barents Sea are closely related (correlation over 0.8) with temperature of water, coming from the Norwegian Sea. The effect of these changes is seen in the air temperature in the Kara Sea. Atlantic water inflow especially impact on winter sea ice in the Barents Sea. The correlation between the average water temperature at section along the Kola meridian and sea ice extent in the Barents Sea in May reaches values of -0.86. To enhance the predictive capability established dependence, the study was extended to the area of the North Atlantic, where temperature anomalies are formed. In the North Atlantic from the equator to 80 ° N were identified 6 areas where the average annual SST anomalies are associated with SST anomalies and sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents Sea. Detailed analysis with monthly SST from HadISST for 1951 - 2013 identified two areas with the greatest influence on the Barents Sea. One area is the northern region of the Gulf Stream and other is the equatorial region. The corresponding delays amounted to 26 months and 4-5 years. The relationship between changes AMO index, averaged over August-October, and SIE in the Barents Sea in January is evaluated. Correlation coefficient between them with 3 year delay is -0.54. Implemented study revealed the importance of teleconnection between SST anomalies in the North Atlantic and SST

  13. Multicentennial Agulhas leakage variability and links to North Atlantic climate during the past 80,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dyez, Kelsey A.; Zahn, Rainer; Hall, Ian R.

    2014-12-01

    New high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) estimates are presented from the Agulhas Bank slope in the Atlantic sector of the Agulhas Corridor using planktic foraminiferal (Globigerinoides ruber) δ18O and Mg/Ca-derived SST. By focusing on the last 80,000 years, this is the first fine-scale Agulhas leakage record that overlaps in time with much of the Greenland ice core record of abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic region. The multicentennial profiles indicate instances of warm SST and/or increased SSS coincident with Northern Hemisphere cool periods, followed by Northern Hemisphere warming. These periods of enhanced SST and SSS in the Agulhas Corridor occur at the last glacial termination (T1) and during North Atlantic cold episodes associated with Heinrich (H) meltwater events. To a first-order approximation, the timing of maximal salinity events in relation to periods of North Atlantic freshwater perturbation is consistent with the concept suggested by climate models that enhanced Agulhas leakage provides for buoyancy compensation and can potentially trigger increased convective activity in the North Atlantic, thereby restoring Atlantic overturning circulation after relatively weak states.

  14. Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

  15. Causes of Ocean Surface temperature Changes in Atlantic andPacific Topical Cyclogenesis Regions

    SciTech Connect

    Santer, B.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.; Gleckler, P.J.; Bonfils, C.; Wehner, M.F.; AchutaRao, K.; Barnett, T.P.; Boyle, J.S.; Bruggemann, W.; Fiorino, M.; Gillett, N.; Hansen, J.E.; Jones, P.D.; Klein, S.A.; Meehl,G.A.; Raper, S.C.B.; Reynolds, R.W.; Stott, P.A.; Taylor, K.E.; Washington, W.M.

    2006-01-31

    Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32 to 0.67 C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system, even under conservative assumptions regarding the magnitude of this variability. Model simulations that include external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors are generally capable of replicating observed SST changes in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

  16. Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, Bruno; Vogel, Hendrik; Crouzet, Christian; Etienne, David; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

    2016-04-01

    The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 event layers, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The layer thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale, summer-to-autumn convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both Atlantic (local events) and Mediterranean (meso-scale events) climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1300-1900). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both, the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950-1250). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of high-intensity flood events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in course of 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties in future evolution of flood intensity lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors between the two periods (greenhouse gases vs. solar/volcanic eruptions).

  17. Forests and People in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Treesearch

    Stephanie Fulton; Evan Mercer; M. Patricia Bradley

    2012-01-01

    Human populations in the Mid-Atlantic region over the last 250 years have increased nearly 100-fold, from an estimated few hundred thousand people to over 30 million people (Mercer and Murthy 2000). Increased population growth usually results in the conversion of forestland to nonforest uses, particularly agriculture, pastureland, and urban development. Not only is the...

  18. TRICARE Mid-Atlantic Region Business Planning Initiatives

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1999-06-01

    This paper discusses the business planning processes and the development of a business plan. A business plan reflects the ultimate goal of an...provides valuable information about business operations. An assessment of business planning initiatives within the TRICARE Mid-Atlantic Region is provided

  19. North Atlantic / Arctic Oscillations in the Pliocene: A Mechanism for Regional Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, Daniel; Csank, Adam; Lunt, Daniel; Haywood, Alan

    2010-05-01

    Pliocene climate is significantly warmer than modern globally, but particularly so in the North Atlantic and adjacent portions of the Arctic. In order to fully understand these changes we must examine not only the mean climate state, but also changes to the significant oscillatory modes of regional climate. The Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO/NAO) are the primary atmospheric oscillatory modes in the North Atlantic / Eastern Arctic region, observed mainly in mean sea level pressure, but accounting for typically a third of all climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Advanced General Circulation Models (GCMs) of both the modern and Mid-Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP) enable the study of AO/NAO changes between the two intervals and the examination of the causes and significance of any changes. Models show that there is a large change in the mean state of the pressure systems in the North Atlantic, on which the NAO index is based. While the mean Azores High remains relatively constant throughout Pliocene and modern simulations, the mean Icelandic Low is much deeper in MPWP models. By changing the various parameters that are different between the modern and Pliocene simulations, the cause of this change can be examined. The observed changes in mean AO/NAO state can be largely attributed to changes in the orography of the Rocky Mountains. Changes in the Pliocene NAO also include the seasonal and interannual variability seen in the indexes. While the Hadley Centre GCM, used in this study, consistently performs well in studies of regional climate change and atmospheric phenomenon, different GCMs have been shown to produce different NAO responses to climate change. Multiple models can be used to find patterns that are robust between different GCMs, which should be possible in the new PlioMIP study. Secondly, comparison with palaeoclimate proxy data can be used to ground truth the modelled changes. Although this will always be difficult with an interannual

  20. Low-frequency storminess signal at Bermuda linked to cooling events in the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hengstum, Peter J.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Kingston, Andrew W.; Williams, Bruce E.; Scott, David B.; Reinhardt, Eduard G.; Little, Shawna N.; Patterson, William P.

    2015-02-01

    North Atlantic climate archives provide evidence for increased storm activity during the Little Ice Age (150 to 600 calibrated years (cal years) B.P.) and centered at 1700 and 3000 cal years B.P., typically in centennial-scale sedimentary records. Meteorological (tropical versus extratropical storms) and climate forcings of this signal remain poorly understood, although variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are frequently hypothesized to be involved. Here we present records of late Holocene storminess and coastal temperature change from a Bermudian submarine cave that is hydrographically circulated with the coastal ocean. Thermal variability in the cave is documented by stable oxygen isotope values of cave benthic foraminifera, which document a close linkage between regional temperature change and NAO phasing during the late Holocene. However, erosion of terrestrial sediment into the submarine cave provides a "storminess signal" that correlates with higher-latitude storminess archives and broader North Atlantic cooling events. Understanding the driver of this storminess signal will require higher-resolution storm records to disentangle the contribution of tropical versus extratropical cyclones and a better understanding of cyclone activity during hemispheric cooling periods. Most importantly, however, the signal in Bermuda appears more closely correlated with proxy-based evidence for subtle AMOC reductions than NAO phasing.

  1. Relationship between solar irradiance and climatic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic since the Medieval Warm Period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso-Garcia, M.; Flower, B. P.; Kleiven, H. F.; Andrews, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    The potential role of solar irradiance as a climate forcing during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP)-Little Ice Age (LIA)-20th Century interval can be tested using several proxies. In this work we use the occurrence of fine sand sized lithic grains (63-150 μm) in North Atlantic marine sediments to study the climatic history of high latitudes because these lithic grains were ice-rafted either by icebergs or sea-ice. The Holocene ice-rafted debris (IRD) flux is much lower than the IRD flux during glacial periods but the occurrence of hematite-stained grains (HSG) from Paleozoic red beds, Icelandic volcanic glass, and detrital carbonate in the fine sand fraction has been used to track climatic variability at several North Atlantic areas: Feni Drift off Ireland, off eastern Greenland near Denmark Strait, and off Newfoundland (Bond et al, 2001). This controversial work suggested that during the Holocene major ice-rafting discharges matched solar irradiance variability patterns inferred from cosmogenic nuclides (10Be fluxes measured in Greenland ice cores and 14C records from tree rings) and hence, variations in the solar output may have paced centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the North Atlantic region. Since 2001 improved 10Be and 14C records have been released and several new sedimentological studies of subpolar North Atlantic marine sites suggested that other climatic forcings may have been involved in Holocene climate variability rather than solar activity (e.g. Moros et al., 2006; Andrews et al., 2009). Moreover, even the ice-rafted origin of the debris has been questioned at some sites. Here we present new high resolution North Atlantic IRD records from Denmark Strait off eastern Greenland and the Labrador Sea, in addition to recounts of sites on the Feni Drift off Ireland (Bond et al., 2001), to study climate variability in the subpolar North Atlantic since MWP. IRD counts are performed using the same technique as in Bond et al. (2001) to (1

  2. Climate Dynamics of Regional US Southeastern drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrigo, J.

    2008-12-01

    The phenomena of droughts both regional and continental have received considerable attention from both science and policy. Understanding the larger scale dynamics of these events is critical to improving predictability, management and mitigation strategies. The history of drought in the United States shows both long (multi-decadal) and short (seasonal or yearly) droughts in various regions. Some of the most severe droughts, such as those with the largest economic losses or that have received the most attention both from the scientific and broader communities have occurred in the Midwest/Great Plains (e.g. the "Dust Bowl" years, the 1988 drought) and generally correlate with continent-wide anomalies. The Southeast region of the US, while generally having a more humid temperature climate than the rest of the country, also is subject to periods of drought conditions. In this study we analyze long term records of PDSI in the southeastern United States. While some occurrences correlate with larger continental scale droughts, many severe southeastern droughts occur during a synoptic pattern correlating with wetter conditions through the greater Midwest, have a seasonal pattern different than larger continental scale anomalies, and show correlations with patterns in Atlantic tropical activity. While winter and spring deficits may initiate a drought, we find a proportionally larger decrease in summertime precipitation during severe drought periods. Some of this decrease may be related to the contribution of tropical systems, which increases in the periods following droughts. We suggest that the dynamics of drought in this region differ from the larger US pattern, and particularly need to account for the interaction between continental and tropical contributions. With an increasing population and areas of high agricultural productivity, we argue this region deserves further attention from both the scientific and larger community, that understanding these dynamics will

  3. Current Enhanced Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency: A Climate-Change Impact?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C.

    2010-12-01

    Previous studies of Atlantic tropical cyclone response to anthropogenic climate change have assumed that this has occurred as a quasi-linear trend from around the turn of the 20th century. However, comparison of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations with and without forcing by anthropogenic gases indicates that the warming due to climate change component was indistinguishable from natural variability until the mid 20th century (Meehl et al 2004). The global change trend became distinct from the annual variability by ~1975. This analysis suggests that internal variability may not be a dominant contributor to the current record temperatures in the MDR, in disagreement with early studies that concluded it was entirely due to internal variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) or similar. Other studies have shown that the warming in the MDR could be explained by changes in both radiative forcing from anthropogenic considerations or by a combination of both radiative and internal effects. Here we adopt the working hypothesis that anthropogenic forcing of climate change moved above the natural climate variability noise level after 1960 and that the majority of the current record level of MDR SST is due to anthropogenic forcing (see Gillett et al for a summary). While this will undoubtedly be controversial, we provide evidence that it fits the available evidence far better than the century-long linear increase that has been assumed in previous studies. We are considering the impacts of this hypothesis on all aspects of Atlantic tropical cyclones; however this presentation will focus on frequency. We first discuss the potential impacts of data errors and shown that these are negligible over the period of interest. We next utilize the association between tropical cyclone frequency and the MDR SST, the MDR SST anomaly compared to the tropics as a whole, and a Genesis Parameter (GP) that incorporates a range of environmental parameters. We find

  4. Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

    2004-12-01

    Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMs’ capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in

  5. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Climate Impact - Zonal and Meridional Coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Kirillov, Andrey; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  6. Effects of orbital-scale ITCZ fluctuations on the mid Cretaceous tropical Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hofmann, P.; Beckmann, B.; Flögel, S.; Wagner, T.

    2009-04-01

    Shifts of the Inter Tropic Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on Milankovitch time scales have profound effects on the climate-ocean system of tropical regions. Changes in wind systems, regional hydrology and continental runoff linked to past fluctuations of the ITCZ are well known to have triggered a complex chain of forcing and feedback mechanisms between the regional biosphere and geosphere. In our study we explore these relationships for the mid-Cretaceous super-greenhouse. We present proxy records from two regions of the Coniacian tropical Atlantic, ODP Site 959 (West Africa off Ivory Coast) and ODP Site 1261 (Northern South America off Suriname) and compare them with results of GENESIS Atmospheric General Circulation modeling. Our data suggest that bioproductivity in the eastern tropical Atlantic mainly followed a precession controlled cyclic pattern which was closely linked to changes in nutrient and freshwater supply via continental runoff from the African continent. Different from that bioproductivity in the western tropical Atlantic shows a strong obliquity and eccentricity cycle pattern. We propose that these differences in the west were mainly caused by fluctuations in wind-driven upwelling off northern South America with a constant and high supply of nutrients from the continent maintaining the ocean redox system anoxic without interruption. Bioproductivity from wind-driven upwelling in the west would have pushed the water column into repetitive sulfidic conditions (euxinia), as confirmed by geochemical evidence. Overall bioproductivity east and west of the tropical Atlantic was high supporting deposition of extensive black shale deposits. The observed differences in depositional patterns on both sides of the Coniacian tropical Atlantic support that (orbital-driven) fluctuations of the ITCZ were mainly responsible, with strong contrasts in regional moisture distribution over Africa and South America and local strengthening of the trade wind system causing

  7. The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hand, Ralf; Nour-Eddine, Omrani; Keenlyside Noel, S.; Richard, Greatbatch

    2015-04-01

    Here, we present an analysis of North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interaction in a warming climate, based on a long-term coupled general circulation model experiment forced by the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario. In addition to globally strongly increased SSTs as a direct response to the radiative forcing, the model run shows a distinct change of the local sea surface temperature (SST hereafter) pattern in the Gulf Stream region. This includes changes of the SST gradients in the region of the Gulf Stream SST front, likely as a response of the wind-driven part of the oceanic surface circulation. As a consequence of a massive slow-down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the northern North Atlantic furthermore shows a much weaker warming than the other oceans. The feedback of these changes on the atmosphere was studied in a set of sensitivity experiments based on the SST climatology of the coupled runs. The set consists of four runs: a control experiment based on the historical run, a run using the full SST from coupled RCP 8.5 run and two runs, where where we deconstructed the SST signal into a homogenous mean warming part and a local SST pattern change. In the region of the precipitation maximum in the historical run the future scenario shows an increase of absolute SSTs, but a a significant decrease in local precipitation. We show evidence that the local response in that region is connected to the (with respect to the historical run) weakened SST gradients rather than to the absolute SST. Consistently, the model shows enhanced precipitation north of this region, where the SST gradients are enhanced. The warming causes a decreased low-level convergence and upward motion in the region with reduced SST gradient. However, the signal restricts to the low and mid-troposphere and does not reach the higher model levels. There is little evidence for a large-scale response to the SST pattern changes in the Gulf Stream region

  8. Tropical Atlantic climate simulated in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doi, T.; Vecchi, G. A.; Rosati, A. J.; Delworth, T. L.

    2012-12-01

    Using two fully coupled ocean-atmosphere models of CM2.1 (the Climate Model version 2.1 developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) and CM2.5 (a new high-resolution climate model based on CM2.1), the characteristics and sources of SST and precipitation biases associated with the Atlantic ITCZ have been investigated. CM2.5 has an improved simulation of the annual mean and the annual cycle of the rainfall over the Sahel and the northern South America, while CM2.1 shows excessive Sahel rainfall and lack of northern South America rainfall in boreal summer. This marked improvement in CM2.5 is due to not only high-resolved orography, but also a significant reduction of biases in the seasonal meridional migration of the ITCZ. In particular, the seasonal northward migration of the ITCZ in boreal summer is coupled to the seasonal variation of the SST and a subsurface doming of the thermocline in the northeastern tropical Atlantic, known as the Guinea Dome. Improvements in the ITCZ allow for better representation of the coupled processes that are important for an abrupt seasonally phase-locked decay of the interannual SST anomaly in the northern tropical Atlantic. Nevertheless, the differences between CM2.5 and CM2.1 were not sufficient to reduce the warm SST biases in the eastern equatorial region and Angola-Benguela Area. The weak bias of southerly winds along the southwestern African coast associated with the excessive southward migration bias of the ITCZ may be a key to improve the warm SST biases there. Also, response of climate conditions in the Atlantic Hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) to doubling of atmospheric CO2 with CM2.5 has been explored. In the annual mean, the SST in the MDR warms by about 2°C in the CO2 doubling run relative to the Control run, the trade winds become weaker in the northern tropical Atlantic, and the rainfall increases over the ITCZ and its northern region. The amplitude of the annual cycle of the SST over the MDR is not

  9. Reconstructing medieval climate in the tropical North Atlantic with corals from Anegada, British Virgin Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Resolving the patterns of climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is key for exploring forced versus unforced variability during the last 1000 years. Tropical Atlantic climate is currently not well resolved during the MCA despite it being an important source of heat and moisture to the climate system today. To fill this data gap, we collected cores from Diploria strigosa corals brought onto the low-lying island of Anegada, British Virgin Islands (18.7˚N, 64.3˚S) during an overwash event and use paired analysis of Sr/Ca and δ18O in the skeletal aragonite to explore climate in the tropical Atlantic at the end of the MCA. The three sub-fossil corals used in this analysis overlap temporally and together span the years 1256-1372 C.E. An assessment of three modern corals from the study site indicates that the most robust features of climate reconstructions using Sr/Ca and δ18O in this species are the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability. The modern seasonal temperature range is 2.8 degrees Celsius and the similarity between the modern and sub-fossil coral Sr/Ca indicates a similar range during the MCA. Today seasonal salinity changes locally are driven in large part by the migration of a regional salinity front. The modern corals capture the related large seasonal seawater δ18O change, but the sub-fossil corals indicate stable seawater δ18O throughout the year, supporting the idea that this site remained on one side of the salinity front continuously throughout the year. Inter-annual variability in the region is influenced by the cross-equatorial SST gradient, the North Atlantic Oscillation and ENSO. Gridded instrumental SST from the area surrounding Anegada and coral geochemical records from nearby Puerto Rico demonstrate concentrations of variance in specific frequency bands associated with these phenomena. The sub-fossil coral shows no concentration of variance in the modern ENSO frequency band, consistent with reduced ENSO

  10. MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

  11. MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

  12. Sensitivity of modern climate to the presence, strength and salinity of Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange in a global general circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Valdes, Paul J.; Gregoire, Lauren; Flecker, Rachel; Gutjahr, Marcus

    2014-02-01

    Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is thought to be a key contributor to the strength and stability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), but the future of Mediterranean-Atlantic water exchange is uncertain. It is chiefly dependent on the difference between Mediterranean and Atlantic temperature and salinity characteristics, and as a semi-enclosed basin, the Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable to future changes in climate and water usage. Certainly, there is strong geologic evidence that the Mediterranean underwent dramatic salinity and sea-level fluctuations in the past. Here, we use a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model to examine the impact of changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange on global ocean circulation and climate. Our results suggest that MOW strengthens and possibly stabilises the AMOC not through any contribution towards NADW formation, but by delivering relatively warm, saline water to southbound Atlantic currents below 800 m. However, we find almost no climate signal associated with changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic flow strength. Mediterranean salinity, on the other hand, controls MOW buoyancy in the Atlantic and therefore affects its interaction with the shallow-intermediate circulation patterns that govern surface climate. Changing Mediterranean salinity by a factor of two reorganises shallow North Atlantic circulation, resulting in regional climate anomalies in the North Atlantic, Labrador and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas of ±4 °C or more. Although such major variations in salinity are believed to have occurred in the past, they are unlikely to occur in the near future. However, our work does suggest that changes in the Mediterranean's hydrological balance can impact global-scale climate.

  13. Arctic climate sensitivity to changes in North Pacific and North Atlantic ocean heat flux

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Praetorius, S. K.; Rugenstein, M.; Caldeira, K.

    2016-12-01

    -albedo feedback. Our findings indicate that Arctic temperatures are more sensitive to changes in heat flux sourced from the North Pacific than they are to changes in heat flux sourced from the North Atlantic, implying that changes in ocean heat flux patterns between regions have the potential to elicit non-linear Arctic climate responses

  14. Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Xidong; Weisberg, Robert H.; Black, Michael L.

    2017-02-01

    The paper uses observational data from 1950 to 2014 to investigate rapid intensification (RI) variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and its relationships with large-scale climate variations. RI is defined as a TC intensity increase of at least 15.4 m/s (30 knots) in 24 h. The seasonal RI distribution follows the seasonal TC distribution, with the highest number in September. Although an RI event can occur anywhere over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), there are three regions of maximum RI occurrence: (1) the western TNA of 12°N-18°N and 60°W-45°W, (2) the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, and (3) the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. RI events also show a minimum value in the eastern Caribbean Sea north of South America—a place called a hurricane graveyard due to atmospheric divergence and subsidence. On longer time scales, RI displays both interannual and multidecadal variability, but RI does not show a long-term trend due to global warming. The top three climate indices showing high correlations with RI are the June-November ENSO and Atlantic warm pool indices, and the January-March North Atlantic oscillation index. It is found that variabilities of vertical wind shear and TC heat potential are important for TC RI in the hurricane main development region, whereas relative humidity at 500 hPa is the main factor responsible for TC RI in the eastern TNA. However, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variables analyzed in this study do not show an important role in TC RI in the Gulf of Mexico and the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. This suggests that other factors such as small-scale changes of oceanic and atmospheric variables or TC internal processes may be responsible for TC RI in these two regions. Additionally, the analyses indicate that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are not critical to TC genesis and formation; however, once a tropical depression forms, large-scale climate

  15. Climate and recruitment of rocky shore intertidal invertebrates in the eastern North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Broitman, Bernardo R; Mieszkowska, Nova; Helmuth, Brian; Blanchette, Carol A

    2008-11-01

    Studies of the impacts of climate and climate change on biological systems often attempt to correlate ecological responses with basin-scale indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, such correlations, while useful for detecting long-term trends, are unable to provide a mechanism linking the physical environment and ecological processes. Here we evaluate the effects of the NAO on recruitment variability of rocky intertidal invertebrates in the North Atlantic examining two possible climate-related pathways. Using a highly conservative test we interpret associations with the NAO integrated over a season (three months) as an indicator of atmospheric effects on newly settled recruits (NAO3), and the effects of the NAO integrated over six months (NAO6) as an indicator of changes in ocean circulation affecting patterns of larval transport. Through an extensive literature survey we found 13 time series, restricted to southwest Ireland and Britain and comprising five species, that could be used for statistical analysis. Significant correlations with NAO3, our proxy for atmospheric effects, were observed in the south-central domain of our study region (southwest Ireland and south England). Significant correlations with NAO6, the proxy for ocean circulation effects, were detected on southwest Ireland. The associations were detected for three (two barnacles and a topshell) at two sites. These results suggest that the NAO can have effects on the recruitment of intertidal invertebrates through different pathways linked to climate and be distributed heterogeneously in space. Based on previous evidence and the sign and geographic location of significant correlations, we suggest that winter NAO effects are likely to occur as a result of effects on the survival of early life stages settling during spring or through changes in phenology. Our results argue that a combination of modeling and synthesis can be used to generate hypotheses regarding the effects of

  16. On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, Sebastian; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel

    2011-03-01

    Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall.

  17. Global scale climate trends associated with variable Atlantic thermohaline transport as inferred from changes in intense hurricane activity

    SciTech Connect

    Gray, W.M.; Sheaffer, J.D.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents a review of the most recent 100 years of data of hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic, and proposes that decadal variations of hurricane activity are but one of a host of observed concurrent global climate trends which may all link to multi-decadal scale variations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The data reviews shows that long term multi-decadal variations in hurricane activity appear to be linked (1) to mode-like variations of regional and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and (2) to concurrent trends in global air temperature, pressure anomalies, and atmospheric circulations. Many of these effects extend well beyond the tropical Atlantic. The pre-eminent effect which seems to dominate all others as a unifying process for these multi-decadal changes is variations in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. A synthesis process is suggested for specifying physically consistent global interactions linking the Atlantic conveyor and decadal trend associations in global climate data. In this way, some of the global data may yield factors which are useful for forecasting the onset and termination of new decadal trends of hurricane activity. 30 refs., 4 figs.

  18. Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

    2017-08-01

    For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not

  19. Advancing climate dynamics toward reliable regional climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping

    2013-06-01

    With a scientific consensus reached regarding the anthropogenic effect on global mean temperature, developing reliable regional climate projections has emerged as a new challenge for climate science. A national project was launched in China in 2012 to study ocean's role in regional climate change. This paper starts with a review of recent advances in the study of regional climate response to global warming, followed by a description of the Chinese project including the rationale, objectives, and plan for field observations. The 15 research articles that follow in the special issue are highlighted, representing some of the initial results from the project.

  20. Atlantic Flyway review: Region IV - Fall 2003

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, Chandler S.

    2004-01-01

    We welcome the Eden Mill station in northeastern Maryland to Region IV this year. With three stations reporting their worst year ever, we really need to be refreshed. After a cool and wet July, August was hot and wet in the east. Temperatures in September remained close to normal, but thanks to tropical storms Henri (6-8 Sep) and Isabel (18 Sep), rainfall was excessive in the Chesapeake Bay states. The entire Northeast had cool weather in October, starting with an early freeze on 3 Oct that triggered some good banding days in our region. Precipitation was unusually spotty in October, but plentiful at most of the Region IV stations. November temperatures were consistently well above the norm, starting with a record-breaking 81 ø in Baltimore on the 1st.Four of the five Maryland stations had their best day on 19 or 20 Oct. One might expect some of the Virginia coastal stations, Chincoteague, Kiptopeke, and Back Bay, to share the same best day, but they did not. Three stations reported an increase in birds per net hour this year, while seven had a decline. Summarizing the changes in rank in Table 2, Gray Catbird was the species with the most (5) increases in rank (in excess of decreases), followed by junco (4) and Myrtle Warbler and Swamp Sparrow (3 each). Yellowthroat had the most decreases (5), followed by redstart (3).Myrtle Warbler (4572) was once again the most commonly banded species in Region IV, followed by White-throated Sparrow (1723), Gray Catbird (1349), and Western Palm Warbler (1090). Michelle Davis' station on Key Biscayne is the envy of the rest of us. Her top eight species were all warblers and there was not a Myrtle among them. Imagine having Parula, Prairie, and Worm-eating warblers fighting for sixth place!Not showing among the top ten, however, are other surprises. Several banders commented on Sawwhet Owls and Bicknell's Thrushes. Deanna Dawson banded a Cerulean Warbler at Patuxent. Danny Bystrak caught 138 Swamp Sparrows at Jug Bay. In addition

  1. A Long, Consistent Surface Wind Dataset for Climate Change Analysis: Application over the Equatorial Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokinaga, H.; Xie, S.

    2010-12-01

    Surface wind change is a principal factor for spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) warming through changes in surface evaporation, ocean vertical mixing and wind-driven ocean circulation. However, historical ship-based measurements of sea surface wind speed displays a spurious upward trend due to increases in anemometer height. To correct this bias, we construct the Wave and Anemometer-based Sea-surface Wind (WASWind) dataset for the last six decades from ICOADS ship reports, applying height correction for anemometer measured winds, rejecting spurious Beaufort winds, and using wind wave height to estimate wind speed. WASWind substantially reduces the upward trend in wind speed and its trend patterns are quite similar to satellite-measured surface wind changes for the recent two decades. Surface wind changes in WASWind are consistent with historical sea level pressure observations over the global oceans, illustrating its utility for climate change analysis. As an example, WASWind captures relaxation of the equatorial trade winds coupled with a weakening of the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue over the last six decades. The surface wind changes are also consistent with those in atmospheric convection and subsurface temperature in this region, indicating that thermocline feedback plays a key role in recent climate change over the equatorial Atlantic.

  2. The influence of solar variability past, present and future, on North Atlantic climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunstone, Nick; Scaife, Adam; Ineson, Sarah; Gray, Lesley; Knight, Jeff; Lockwood, Mike; Maycock, Amanda

    2014-05-01

    There has long existed observational evidence for a link between solar activity (both the semi-regular 11-yr cycle and longer term variability) and regional climate variability. In the last few years progress is starting to be made in understanding such observational correlations from physical mechanistic viewpoint. Firstly, new observations of solar spectral irradiance from the SORCE satellite have raised the possibility of much larger variability in the UV than previously appreciated. Secondly, state of the art computer climate models now explicitly resolve the Earth's stratosphere allowing the influence of solar variability to be simulated here. By driving such climate models with the larger solar UV variability implied by the latest satellite observations, surface climate impacts have been shown in the Northern Hemisphere winter that are consistent with late 20th century climate data. Low solar activity is associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hence colder winters over northern Europe and the USA. We discuss the implications for seasonal/decadal climate prediction. Further work has examined the role of ocean feedbacks in amplifying this tropospheric response. There is robust statistical evidence that such a feedback operates in the observations and gives a lag of 3-4 years for the maximum tropospheric response after the maximum solar forcing. This lag does not generally appear to be reproduced by current climate models. We discuss how this observational evidence may be a valuable way of assessing the relative strength of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the present generation of climate models. The prolonged solar minimum during the transition between solar cycles 23 & 24, combined with the relatively low maximum activity of cycle 24, have increased suggestions that we may be coming to the end of the grand solar maximum which dominated the 20th century. A return to Maunder Minimum like solar activity is therefore a possible

  3. Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, B.; Vogel, H.; Crouzet, C.; Etienne, D.; Anselmetti, F. S.

    2016-02-01

    Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 event layers, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The layer thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale, summer-to-autumn convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both Atlantic (local events) and Mediterranean (mesoscale events) climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1300-1900). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950-1250). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of high-intensity flood events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in the course of the 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties in future evolution of flood intensity lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors between the two periods (greenhouse gases vs. solar and/or volcanic eruptions).

  4. Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Assis, Jorge; Araújo, Miguel B; Serrão, Ester A

    2017-07-15

    Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Evidence for multiple drivers of North Atlantic multi-decadal climate variability using CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terray, L.

    2012-12-01

    Observed North Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures have changed in a non-monotonic and non-uniform fashion over the last century. While future North Atlantic decadal-to-multi-decadal climate change will be driven by a combination of internal variability and anthropogenic as well as natural forcings, the relative importance of these effects is still unclear for the 20th century [Ting et al., 2009; Knight 2009; Ottera et al. 2010; DelSole et al., 2011; Booth et al. 2012]. Here we assess the relative roles of greenhouses gases, anthropogenic aerosols, natural forcings and internal variability to the North Atlantic surface temperature decadal fluctuations using CMIP5 multi-model historical simulations driven by estimates of observed external forcings. While the latter are the main source of decadal variability in the tropics and subtropics, there is a large contribution from the unforced component to subpolar Atlantic variations. Reconstruction of forced response patterns suggests that anthropogenic forcings are the main causes of the accelerated warming of the last three decades while internal variability has a dominant contribution to the early 20th-century temperature multi-decadal swings and recent abrupt changes in the subpolar Atlantic. Significant inter-model spread with regard to the spatial response patterns to anthropogenic forcing leads to substantial uncertainty as to robust attribution statements for the mid-to-late 20th century North Atlantic warm and cold periods. Comparing internal variability from preindustrial simulations with that estimated from the observed residual after removing the best estimate of the total forced response leads to a consistency metric which allows to identify models with a biased forced response.; CMIP5 multi-model ratio (ρ_LF) of the externally forced -natural and anthropogenic- variance, σ_EF to the total variance, σ_T, of fluctuations with a period greater than 10 years. Stippling indicates regions where the null

  6. A simple coupled model of tropical Atlantic decadal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kushnir, Yochanan; Seager, Richard; Miller, Jennifer; Chiang, John C. H.

    2002-12-01

    A linear, zonally averaged model of the interaction between the tropical Atlantic (TA) atmosphere and ocean is presented. A balance between evaporation and meridional heat advection in the mixed layer determines the sea surface temperature tendency. The atmosphere is a fixed-depth, sub-cloud layer in which the specific humidity anomaly is determined by a steady-state balance between evaporation, meridional advection, and a parameterized humidity exchange with the free atmosphere. When the model is integrated, forced with observed surface wind anomalies from 1965 to the present, its simulation of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is realistic and comparable to a simulation with a full ocean GCM. A statistical representation of surface winds and their relationship to the SST gradient across the equator is used to formulate and test a coupled model of their regional variability. Forced on both sides of the equator, in the trade-wind regions, with ``white-noise'' windspeed perturbations, the SST-wind relationship in the near-equatorial region feeds back positively on existing SST anomalies and gives rise to decadal variability.

  7. Surface Climate Variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during Winter: 1900-1989.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deser, Clara; Blackmon, Maurice L.

    1993-09-01

    The low-frequency variability of the surface climate over the North Atlantic during winter is described, using 90 years of weather observations from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. Results are based on empirical orthogonal function analysis of four components of the climate system: sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, wind, and sea level pressure. An important mode of variability of the wintertime surface climate over the North Atlantic during this century is characterized by a dipole pattern in SSTs and surface air temperatures, with anomalies of one sign cast of Newfoundland, and anomalies of the opposite polarity off the southeast coast of the United States. Wind fluctuations occur locally over the regions of large surface temperature anomalies, with stronger-than-normal winds overlying cooler-than-normal SSTs. This mode exhibits variability on quasi-decadal and biennial time scales. The decadal fluctuations are irregular in length, averaging 9 years before 1945 and 12 years afterward. There does not appear to be any difference between the wind-SST relationships on the different lime scales. The decadal fluctuations in SSTs east of Newfoundland are closely linked to decadal variations in sea ice in the Labrador Sea, with periods of greater than normal sea ice extent preceding by 2 years periods of colder-than-normal SSTs east of Newfoundland.Another dominant mode of variability is associated with the global surface warming trend during the 1920s and 1930s. The patterns of SST and air temperature change between 1900-29 and 1939-68 indicate that the warming was concentrated along the Gulf Stream east of Cape Hatteras. Warming also occurred over the Greenland Sea and the eastern subtropical Atlantic. The warming trend was accompanied by a decrease in the strength of the basin-scale atmospheric circulation (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation). In marked contrast to the dipole pattern, the wind changes occurred downstream of the

  8. Regional climate services: A regional partnership between NOAA and USDA

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate services in the Midwest and Northern Plains regions have been enhanced by a recent addition of the USDA Climate Hubs to NOAA’s existing network of partners. This new partnership stems from the intrinsic variability of intra and inter-annual climatic conditions, which makes decision-making fo...

  9. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  10. Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Climate and Hurricanes: An Overview of Recent Understanding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C.; Lee, S.; Enfield, D.

    2007-05-01

    The Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) with a large body of warm water is comprised of the Intra-Americas Sea (i.e., the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) and the western tropical North Atlantic. Located to its northeastern side is the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) that produces the tropical easterly trade winds. The easterly trade winds carry moisture from the tropical North Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea where the flow intensifies forming the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). The CLLJ then splits into two branches: One turning northward and connecting with the Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ), and the other one continuing westward across Central America into the eastern North Pacific. The easterly CLLJ and its moisture transport are maximized in the summer and winter, whereas they are minimized in the fall and spring. This semi-annual feature results from the semi-annual variation of sea level pressure in the Caribbean region owing to the westward extension and eastward retreat of the NASH. The summertime strong easterly CLLJ is associated with a maximum of sea level pressure, a relative minimum of rainfall (the mid-summer drought), and a minimum of tropical cyclogenesis in July in the Caribbean Sea. The NCAR community atmospheric model ensemble runs show that climate response to the AWP heating extends beyond the AWP region to the eastern North Pacific and North America, owing to the westward propagation of Rossby wave response. The effect of the AWP is to weaken the summertime NASH, especially at its southwestern edge. The AWP also strengthens the summertime continental low over the North American monsoon region. In response to these pressure changes, the easterly CLLJ and its moisture transport are weakened, but its semi-annual feature does not change. The AWP-induced change of atmospheric circulation changes the moisture convergence that results in increased rainfall in the AWP region and the eastern North Pacific. The model runs also show that the effect

  11. How Synchronous was the Transition into the Younger Dryas across the Euro-Atlantic Region?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenk, F.; Muschitiello, F.; Heikkilä, M. P.; Väliranta, M.; Tarasov, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Johansson, A. V.; Naslund, J. O.; Wohlfarth, B.

    2015-12-01

    Observations of a currently weakening subpolar gyre south of Greenland has again increased scientific attention regarding the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the regional to global climate. The rapid climate shift of the Younger Dryas (YD, GS-1) cold reversal during the last deglaciation is attributed to an abrupt slowdown or collapse of the AMOC due to a strong meltwater pulse and/or the rapid disintegration of the Laurentide Ice sheet. Although such a dramatic event is not expected for the future, the spatiotemporal climatic response to such a slowdown is an interesting test case. Two recently well dated proxy records around the North Sea region suggest a non-synchronous early cooling/onset of the YD compared to Greenland (NGRIP). Presentation #61803 discusses the hypothesis of a local cooling as a response to increased ice berg calving and/or meltwater from Fenno-Scandinavian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the late Alleröd warm phase (GI-1a). Here we study CCSM3 model output from the quasi-transient atmosphere-ocean simulation (TraCE) where no strong contribution from FIS is considered from the late Alleröd into the YD. We evaluate to which extent the spatiotemporal temperature response to the AMOC slowdown of the simulation is synchronous over the Euro-Atlantic region and how atmospheric teleconnections reorganize during the rapid shift into the YD. In addition, we run time-slice experiments at high spatial resolution of around 100 km with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.0.5 for the late Alleröd and YD to compare spatial climatic differences for both periods taking into account the regional influence from continental ice sheets in more detail.

  12. A link between North Atlantic cooling and dry events in the core SW monsoon region in Lonar Lake, central India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menzel, Philip; Gaye, Birgit; Prasad, Sushma; Plessen, Birgit; Stebich, Martina; Anoop, Ambili; Riedel, Nils; Basavaiah, Nathani

    2014-05-01

    A sediment core from Lonar Lake in central India covers the complete Holocene and was used to reconstruct the monsoon history of the core SW-monsoon region. We compare C/N ratios, stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, grain size, as well as amino acid derived degradation proxies with climatically sensitive proxies of other records from South Asia and the North Atlantic region. The comparison reveals some more or less contemporaneous climate shifts. At Lonar Lake, a general long term climate transition from wet conditions during the early Holocene to drier conditions during the late Holocene, delineating the insolation curve, can be reconstructed. Several phases of shorter term climate alteration that superimpose the general climate trend correlate with cold phases in the North Atlantic region. The most pronounced climate deteriorations indicated by our data occurred between 6.2 - 5.2, 4.65 - 3.9, and 2.05 - 0.55 cal ka BP. The strong dry phase between 4.65 - 3.9 cal ka BP at Lonar Lake corroborates the hypothesis that severe climate deterioration contributed to the decline of the Indus Civilisation about 3.9 ka BP.

  13. Imprint of Late Quaternary Climate Change on the Mid-Atlantic Landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavich, M.; Markewich, H.; Newell, W. L.; Litwin, R.; Smoot, J.; Brook, G.

    2009-12-01

    Recent geomorphic, lithostratigraphic, palynologic and chronostratigraphic investigations of the mid-Atlantic region show that much of the modern landscape flanking the Chesapeake Bay and the Potomac River is developed on late Quaternary sediments. These deposits, dated by OSL and 14C, include transgressive marine and estuarine sediments deposited between 120ka and 32ka, and parabolic dunes formed between 32ka and 15ka. The stacked estuarine units were deposited in a subsiding basin as eustatic sea level fell from +7m to -60m. The estuarine units contain pollen that provides evidence for millennial scale climate fluctuations. The dunes formed during the period of rapid expansion of the Laurentide Ice Sheet as sea level fell to -120m. Permafrost features such as frost wedges and periglacial “pots” formed during cold intervals associated with marine oxygen isotope stages 4 and 2. This periglacial climate, along with glacioisostatic adjustments to growth and decay of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, affected landscape processes at least as far south as the Potomac River valley. While many of these features were recognized in earlier mapping and stratigraphic investigations, OSL dating has greatly extended the range of available dates and significantly improved our understanding of the impacts of highly variable periglacial climate on this region.

  14. The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delworth, Thomas L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Xiaosong; Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Rong

    2016-07-01

    Pronounced climate changes have occurred since the 1970s, including rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, large-scale warming and increased tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. Anthropogenic radiative forcing is likely to have played a major role in these changes, but the relative influence of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability is not well established. The above changes have also occurred during a period in which the North Atlantic Oscillation has shown marked multidecadal variations. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in these rapid changes through its influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat transport. We use climate models to show that observed multidecadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation can induce multidecadal variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and poleward ocean heat transport in the Atlantic, extending to the Arctic. Our results suggest that these variations have contributed to the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, Northern Hemisphere warming, and changing Atlantic tropical storm activity, especially in the late 1990s and early 2000s. These multidecadal variations are superimposed on long-term anthropogenic forcing trends that are the dominant factor in long-term Arctic sea ice loss and hemispheric warming.

  15. Millennial-scale climate instabilities in the subtropical Atlantic during MIS 6 and 7

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheinwald, A.; Billups, K.

    2012-12-01

    We have constructed a high resolution (~200 year) planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope record spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 6 and 7 in the subtropical Atlantic (ODP Site 1059). The record fills a gap in a ~1 million year long time series of millennial-scale surface ocean hydrography in this region. Our ultimate goal is to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale climate signals in the northwestern subtropical Atlantic are linked to external driving factors such as the harmonics of precession. Results show that longer-term trends in the oxygen isotope data spanning MIS 6-7 closely follow precessional forcing allowing us to refine the original age model of Grützner et al. (2002). High frequency variations are superimposed on the long-term trend during both the glacial MIS 6 and the interglacial MIS 7. Spectral analyses indicate high concentration of power at millennial-scale periodicities of 10.9 kyr, 5.2 kyr, and 2.8 kyr. These periodicities are close to those expected from harmonics of precessional forcing during this interval of time (11.5 kyr, 5.8 kyr, 2.8 kyr). We will show the evolution of the millennial-scale periodicities in this region over the past 1 million years by splicing the record into published ones and unifying the age model.

  16. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Atlantic Coast

    Treesearch

    Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

    2009-01-01

    Observed 20th century climate changes in the Atlantic Coast bioregion include warmer air and sea surface temperatures, increased winter precipitation (especially rainfall), and an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events. Climate change impacts during the century include phenological shifts in plant and animals species, such as earlier occurrence of lilac...

  17. Particulate Matter Pollution and its Regional Transport in the Mid-Atlantic States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, H.; Goldberg, D. L.; Hembeck, L.; Canty, T. P.; Vinciguerra, T.; Ring, A.; Salawitch, R. J.; Dickerson, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    Particulate matter (PM) causes negative effects on human health, impair visibility in scenic areas, and affect regional/global climate. PM can be formed through chemical changes of precursors, including biogenic VOCs and anthropogenic SO2 and NOx often from fossil fuel combustion. In the past decades, PM pollution in the US has improved substantially. However, some areas in the Mid-Atlantic States are still designated as 'moderate' nonattainment by EPA. We utilize datasets obtained during the NASA 2011 DISCOVER-AQ campaign to characterize the composition and distribution of summertime PM pollution in the Mid-Atlantic States. Aircraft measurements and OMI satellite retrieval of major anthropogenic precursors (NO2 and SO2) are analyzed to investigate the regional transport of PM precursors from upwind sources. We compare PM concentration and chemical composition observed during the field campaign to CMAQ simulations with the latest EPA emission inventory. Specifically, we focus on the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) chemistry in CMAQ simulations using various biogenic VOCs estimates from the MEGAN and BEIS models. Airborne PM observations including PILS measurements from DISCOVER-AQ campaign and OMI retrievals of HCHO are also used to validate and improve the representation of SOA chemistry and PM pollution within CMAQ. The comparison reveals the source and evolution of PM pollution in the Mid-Atlantic States.

  18. Land use and environmental assessment in the central Atlantic region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexander, R. H.; Fitzpatrick, K.; Lins, H. F., Jr.; Mcginty, H. K., III

    1975-01-01

    Data from high altitude aircraft, LANDSAT and Skylab were used in a comprehensive regional survey of land use and its associated environmental impact in the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS). Each sensor system has advantages that were demonstrated by producing experimental land use maps and other data products, applying them to typical problems encountered in regional planning and environmental impact assessment, and presenting the results to prospective users for evaluation. An archival collection of imagery, maps, data summaries, and technical reports was assembled, constituting an environmental profile of the central Atlantic region. The investigation was organized into four closely-related modules, a land use information module, an environmental impact module, a user interaction and evaluation module, and a geographic information systems module. Results revealed a heterogeneous user community with diverse information needs, tending, however, definitely toward the higher-resolution sensor data and the larger-scale land use maps and related information products. Among project recommendations are greater efforts toward improving compatibility of federal, state, and local land use information programs, and greater efforts toward a broader exchange of imagery, computer tapes, and land use information derived therefrom.

  19. Multi-wavelength Observations of South Atlantic Anomaly Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, C. Y.; Tam, S. W. Y.; Chang, T. F.

    2015-12-01

    The South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is a region where the Earth's magnetic field is at its weakest. The energetic particles captured by the geomagnetic field can come closest to the Earth's surface forming a high-radiation region. The ISUAL (Imager of Sprites and Upper Atmospheric Lightning) is a scientific payload aboard the FORMOSAT-2 satellite. The scientific payload consists of an intensifier CCD Imager, an array photometer, and a six-channel spectrophotometers. ISUAL had been monitoring airglow and aurora in the global ionosphere. In this study, we will use ISUAL images and photometer data to analyze the background emissions in the SAA region. From the emission production mechanisms for different measurement channels, we can estimate the properties of the plasma precipitating from the inner radiation belt into the ionosphere of the SAA region. Besides, the ratios of different emissions are also discussed.

  20. Bahamian speleothems reveal Atlantic climate variability during Heinrich Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arienzo, M. M.; Swart, P. K.; Broad, K.; Clement, A. C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Kakuk, B.

    2010-12-01

    During the last glacial period there is confounding evidence for global millennial scale variability in climate, dominated by Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) events. These events have been documented in the ice core records, deep-sea sediment records and speleothems. Speleothem records have been studied from diverse localities such as South and Central America, Continental United States, Europe, and China, however, there is a significant lack of paleoclimate data from the subtropical Atlantic. Our analyses of stalagmites from the Bahamas reveal that Heinrich events are preserved in the geochemical signature of our samples. To date, over 15 stalagmites have been collected and dated from Blue Holes in the Bahamas. Currently submerged, the speleothems are collected using advanced diving technologies at depths ranging from 10-40 meters below sea level. Sample DC-09 was collected at 16.5 meters below sea level from Dan’s Cave, Abaco Island, Bahamas and was forming from approximately 13,700 to 30,000 ybp, determined from U/Th age dates. Sample DC-14 was collected at 23.5 meters below sea level from the same cave and was dated from 13,800 to 54,000 ybp. These samples provide a continuous record and replicate records from the same cave aid in the interpretation of the geochemical data. These samples have been analyzed for stable carbon and oxygen isotopes as well as trace elements at a 20 μm resolution. Preliminary analysis reveals enrichment in the carbon and oxygen isotope values with amplitudes as large as 4.5‰ associated with Heinrich events. This reflects a change from relatively arid to wetter conditions, which occur over periods as short as 50 years. When comparing the record from DC-09 to DC-14, DC-09 consists of a greater C and O change associated with each Heinrich Event. This is possibly driven in part by the differences in depth at which the samples were forming. There is a greater amount of material overlying the deeper sample, therefore

  1. Pliocene planktic foraminifer census data from the North Atlantic region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1996-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a long-term study of the climatic and oceanographic conditions of the Pliocene known as PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping). One of the major elements of the study involves the use of quantitative composition of planktic foraminifer assemblages to estimate seasurface temperatures and identify major oceanographic boundaries and water masses (Dowsett, 1991; Dowsett and Poore, 1991; Dowsett et al., 1992; Dowsett et al., 1994). We have analyzed more than 900 samples from 19 core sites in the North Atlantic Basin (Fig. 1) resulting in a large volume of raw census data. These data are presented here together to facilitate comparison of North Atlantic faunal assemblages. Latitude, longitude, water depth, source of faunal data and source of data used to construct age model (or publication from which age model was taken) are provided for each locality in Table 1. All ages refer to the geomagnetic polarity time scale of Berggren et al. (1985). Counts of species tabulated in each sample are given in Tables 2-20. DSDP and ODP sample designations are abbreviated in Tables 2-20 as core-section, depth within section in centimeters (eg. 10-5, 34 = core 10, section 5, 34 cm below top of section 5).

  2. The relationship between humans and climate across the North Atlantic: what can lacustrine biomarkers tell us?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Wet, G.; Castañeda, I. S.; Bradley, R. S.; Small, G.; Barrasso, T.

    2016-12-01

    While climate change has been implicated in the colonization/population dynamics of the North Atlantic region, researchers in many cases are forced to compare archaeological data with distant paleoclimate records, making these linkages tenuous. Our research utilizes novel organic biomarkers in lacustrine sediments to produce paired paleoclimate and human occupancy reconstructions to better address questions surrounding human migration and climate change. Here we present preliminary results from two prominent locations in the history of the European colonization of the North Atlantic. The first, carried out on the Norse "Eastern Settlement" in Southern Greenland, attempts to answer the long-standing question of whether climate change caused the demise of the colony in the 1400s C.E. Second, we use similar techniques to search for evidence of the first peopling of the Faroe Islands, a highly debated topic. The use of lacustrine biomarkers allows for numerous aspects of both paleoclimate and human presence in a catchment to be reconstructed. We reconstruct paleotemperatures using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) and alkenones (the UK37 Index), when present. Additionally, will analyze the difference in the hydrogen isotopic composition of long and short-chain plant leaf waxes as a proxy for lake water balance. Human occupancy in the region is investigated using fecal sterols and stanols, primarily created by the breakdown of cholesterol. Some of these compounds, such as coprostanol (the dominant sterol in human waste), provide strong evidence of human settlements and have been identified in some of our lake records. Our preliminary results suggest that temperatures were increasing in SW Greenland during the period when the Norse are thought to have died out, potentially challenging the long-standing view of climate deterioration being the primary cause of their demise. Primary productivity biomarkers from lake Eidisvatnet, in the Faroe Islands

  3. Regional Changes in Extreme Climatic Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, J. L.; Sloan, L. C.; Snyder, M. A.

    2002-12-01

    This study focuses on California as a climatically complex region that is vulnerable to changes in water supply and delivery. A regional climate model is employed to assess changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and precipitation. Significant increases in daily minimum and maximum temperatures occur with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Increases in daily temperatures lead to increases in prolonged heat waves and length of the growing season. Changes in total and extreme precipitation vary by geographic region.

  4. Solar influences on climate over the Atlantic / European sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gray, Lesley J.; Ball, Will; Misios, Stergios

    2017-02-01

    There is growing evidence that variability associated with the 11-year solar cycle has an impact at the Earth's surface and influences its weather and climate. Although the direct response to the Sun's variability is extremely small, a number of different mechanisms have been suggested that could amplify the signal, resulting in regional signals that are much larger than expected. In this paper the observed solar cycle signal at the Earth's surface is described, together with proposed mechanisms that involve modulation via the total incoming solar irradiance and via modulation of the ultra-violet part of the solar spectrum that influences ozone production in the stratosphere.

  5. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or

  6. Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Summer Climate of the Western Hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C.; Lee, S.; Enfield, D.

    2006-12-01

    The North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), being the strongest during the summer, determines the strength of the tropical easterly trade winds at its southern flank. The easterly trade winds carry moisture from the tropical North Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea where the flow intensifies forming the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ). The CLLJ then splits into two branches: one turning northward and connecting with the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), and the other one continuing westward across Central America into the eastern North Pacific. This paper finds that the easterly CLLJ is maximized in the summer and winter, whereas it is minimized in the fall and spring. The semi-annual feature of the CLLJ results from the semi-annual variation of sea level pressure in the Caribbean region owing to the westward extension and eastward retreat of the NASH. The Atlantic warm pool (AWP) with a large body of warm water is comprised of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the western tropical North Atlantic. The NCAR community atmospheric model and observational data are used to investigate the impact of the AWP on the summer climate of the Western Hemisphere. Two groups of the model ensemble runs with and without the AWP are performed and compared. The model results show that the AWP is to weaken the summertime NASH, especially at its southwestern edge. The AWP also strengthens the summertime continental low over the North American monsoon region. In response to these pressure changes, the strength of the CLLJ is weakened, but its semi-annual feature does not change. The weakening of the CLLJ decreases the westward moisture transport from the AWP and thus suppresses rainfall in the eastern North Pacific. Our model runs show that the effect of the AWP is to weaken the southerly wind of the GPLLJ. However, the AWP strengthens the northward moisture transport of the GPLLJ in the summer because the AWP-induced increase of specific humidity overcomes the weakening of

  7. Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Collins, Matthew; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hall, Alex; Hawkins, Ed; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Cassou, Christophe; Giannini, Alessandra; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

  8. Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodwell, M. J.; Rowell, D. P.; Folland, C. K.

    1999-03-01

    The weather over the North Atlantic Ocean, particularly in winter, is often characterized by strong eastward air-flow between the `Icelandic low' and the `Azores high', and by a `stormtrack' of weather systems which move towards western Europe. The North Atlantic Oscillation - an index of which can be defined as the difference in atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Azores and Iceland - is an important mode of variability in the global atmosphere, and is intimately related to the position and strength of the North Atlantic stormtrack owing to dynamic processes internal to the atmosphere,. Here we use a general circulation model of the atmosphere to investigate the ocean's role in forcing North Atlantic and European climate. Our simulations indicate that much of the multiannual to multidecadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation over the past half century may be reconstructed from a knowledge of North Atlantic sea surface temperature. We argue that sea surface temperature characteristics are `communicated' to the atmosphere through evaporation, precipitation and atmospheric-heating processes, leading to changes in temperature, precipitation and storminess over Europe. As it has recently been proposed that there may be significant multiannual predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns, our results are encouraging for the prediction of European winter climate up to several years in advance.

  9. East and central farming and forest region and Atlantic basin diversified farming region: LRRs N and S

    Treesearch

    Brad D. Lee; John M. Kabrick

    2017-01-01

    The central, unglaciated US east of the Great Plains to the Atlantic coast corresponds to the area covered by LRR N (East and Central Farming and Forest Region) and S (Atlantic Basin Diversified Farming Region). These regions roughly correspond to the Interior Highlands, Interior Plains, Appalachian Highlands, and the Northern Coastal Plains.

  10. The Pacific-Atlantic Dipole: A Climate Index with Effects on Trade Wind Strength and Central American Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gervais, M.; Moore, K.; Cowling, S.

    2009-05-01

    The interaction of moist easterly trade winds and high Central American topography creates tropical rainforests in the mountains of Central America. Understanding changes in precipitation in this region is important because these rain forests host a wealth of biodiversity and are sensitive to changes in precipitation. This study focuses on causes of interannual variability in Central American precipitation. Specifically, we find that the relative phases of the Atlantic Nino and Pacific El Nino Southern Oscillation are related to the strength of the trade winds and precipitation over Central America. These relative phases are quantified through the creation of the Pacific Atlantic Dipole index, which is the difference between the Atlantic Nino and the El Nino Southern Oscillation indices. An index of moisture transport over Central America is also created. We find that the Pacific- Atlantic dipole is positively correlated to both the moisture transport index and to a new Central American precipitation station data set, comprised of 43 stations and spanning the period 1961-2000. Composites of years of high and low Pacific-Atlantic dipole index reveal the spatial pattern associated with its variability. These showed that when the PAD is low (high), there is a strengthening (weakening) of the subtropical high and a decrease (increase) in pressure over the eastern equatorial Pacific. This causes an increase (decrease) in the trade wind strength and subsequently a decrease (increase) in Central American precipitation. We conclude that the PAD index represents a dipole in sea surface temperature and sea level pressure between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In the future, this could be used to predict interannual changes in trade wind strength and precipitation in Central America. With current changes in climate, a further understanding of this relationship may be important for the sensitive ecology in the region.

  11. How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

  12. Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

  13. Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhu, Jiang

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection.

  14. Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions

    PubMed Central

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Gleckler, P. J.; Bonfils, C.; Wehner, M. F.; AchutaRao, K.; Barnett, T. P.; Boyle, J. S.; Brüggemann, W.; Fiorino, M.; Gillett, N.; Hansen, J. E.; Jones, P. D.; Klein, S. A.; Meehl, G. A.; Raper, S. C. B.; Reynolds, R. W.; Taylor, K. E.; Washington, W. M.

    2006-01-01

    Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32°C to 0.67°C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906–2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model “20th-century” simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions. PMID:16968781

  15. Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions.

    PubMed

    Santer, B D; Wigley, T M L; Gleckler, P J; Bonfils, C; Wehner, M F; Achutarao, K; Barnett, T P; Boyle, J S; Brüggemann, W; Fiorino, M; Gillett, N; Hansen, J E; Jones, P D; Klein, S A; Meehl, G A; Raper, S C B; Reynolds, R W; Taylor, K E; Washington, W M

    2006-09-19

    Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32 degrees C to 0.67 degrees C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model "20th-century" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

  16. Regional Sun-Climate Interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, A.; Golbasi, O.

    It is a clear fact that the Earth's climate is changing since the pre-industrial era, especially during the last three decades. As a general assumption, this change is attributed to three main factors; greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and solar activity changes, although their shares on the climate change are not well established up to now. In this study, we deal with the question whether the solar activity affects the Earth's climate or not. We have chosen two parameters to check a possible relationship; the solar irradiance model data reconstructed by J. Lean and surface air temperatures of the Earth. For this investigation two countries were selected, one is the U.S.A and the other is Japan. The number of total stations used in this study is 80, 38 stations for U.S.A. and 42 stations for Japan. Our data cover the time period between 1905 - 2000 for the U.S.A. and 1900 - 1990 for Japan. Trends of these parameters show considerable agreement for the USA and good agreement for Japan. Their correlation coefficients are 42 % and 78 %, respectively. Both data sets show about similar periodicities. Our investigation shows that an effect of the Sun on the Earth's climate seems to exist.

  17. Regional climate service in Southern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schipper, Janus; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2013-04-01

    Climate change challenges science, politics, business and society at the international, national and regional level. The South German Climate Office at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is a contact for the structuring and dissemination of information on climate and climate change in the South German region. It provides scientifically based and user-oriented climate information. Thereby it builds a bridge between the climate sciences and society and provides scientific information on climate change in an understandable way. The expertise of KIT, in which several institutions operate on fundamental and applied climate research, and of partner institutions is the basis for the work in the climate office. The regional focus is on the south of Germany. Thematic focuses are e.g. regional climate modeling, trends in extreme weather events such as heavy rain and hail event, and issues for energy and water management. The South German Climate Office is one of four Regional Helmholtz Climate Offices, of which each has a regional and thematic focus. The users of the Climate Office can be summarized into three categories. First, there is the general public. This category consists mainly of non-professionals. Here, special attention is on an understandable translation of climate information. Attention is paid to application-related aspects, because each individual is affected in a different way by climate change. Typical examples of this category are school groups, citizens and the media. The second category consists of experts of other disciplines. Unlike the first category they are mainly interested in the exchange of results and data. It is important to the climate office to provide support for the use of climatological results. Typical representatives of this category are ministries, state offices, and companies. In the third and final category are scientists. In addition to the climatologists, this category also holds representatives from other scientific

  18. The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deser, Clara; Hurrell, James W.; Phillips, Adam S.

    2016-12-01

    This study highlights the expected range of projected winter air temperature and precipitation trends over the next 30-50 years due to unpredictable fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) superimposed upon forced anthropogenic climate change. The findings are based on a 40-member initial-condition ensemble of simulations covering the period 1920-2100 conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) at 1° spatial resolution. The magnitude (and in some regions, even the sign) of the projected temperature and precipitation trends over Europe, Russia and parts of the Middle East vary considerably across the ensemble depending on the evolution of the NAO in each individual member. Thus, internal variability of the NAO imparts substantial uncertainty to future changes in regional climate over the coming decades. To validate the model results, we apply a simple scaling approach that relates the margin-of-error on a trend to the statistics of the interannual variability. In this way, we can obtain the expected range of projected climate trends using the interannual statistics of the observed NAO record in combination with the model's radiatively-forced response (given by the ensemble-mean of the 40 simulations). The results of this observationally-based estimate are similar to those obtained directly from the CESM ensemble, attesting to the fidelity of the model's representation of the NAO and the utility of this approach. Finally, we note that the interannual statistics of the NAO and associated surface climate impacts are subject to uncertainty due to sampling fluctuations, even when based on a century of data.

  19. Relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic stepwise climate change during the 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Y.; Kimoto, M.; Watanabe, M.; Ishii, M.; Mochizuki, T.

    2012-11-01

    A linkage between climate change in the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans during the 1990s is investigated using three versions of the coupled climate model MIROC and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. From the early 1990s to the early 2000s, the observed sea surface temperature (SST) shows warming in the North Atlantic and a La Niña-like pattern in the Pacific. Associated with the SST pattern, the observations indicate a strengthened Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and enhanced precipitation in the tropical Atlantic. These SST and precipitation patterns are simulated well by hindcast experiments with external forcing and an initialized ocean anomaly state but are poorly simulated by uninitialized simulation with external forcing only. In particular, the observed La Niña-like SST pattern becomes prominent in ensemble members with large amplitudes of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index during 1996-1998. Our results suggest that ocean initialization in both the Pacific and the Atlantic plays an important role in predicting the Pacific stepwise climate change during the 1990s, which contributes to the accurate estimation of global temperature change in the coming decade. Forecasting typhoon frequency or marine fisheries production in the coming decade may be possible by improving the predictive skill of stepwise climate change.

  20. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  1. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, U.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual

  2. The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in Chesapeake Bay and the North Atlantic Ocean

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, T. M.; Hayo, K.; Thunell, R.C.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Willard, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    A new 2400-year paleoclimate reconstruction from Chesapeake Bay (CB) (eastern US) was compared to other paleoclimate records in the North Atlantic region to evaluate climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Using Mg/Ca ratios from ostracodes and oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera as proxies for temperature and precipitation-driven estuarine hydrography, results show that warmest temperatures in CB reached 16-17. ??C between 600 and 950. CE (Common Era), centuries before the classic European Medieval Warm Period (950-1100. CE) and peak warming in the Nordic Seas (1000-1400. CE). A series of centennial warm/cool cycles began about 1000. CE with temperature minima of ~. 8 to 9. ??C about 1150, 1350, and 1650-1800. CE, and intervening warm periods (14-15. ??C) centered at 1200, 1400, 1500 and 1600. CE. Precipitation variability in the eastern US included multiple dry intervals from 600 to 1200. CE, which contrasts with wet medieval conditions in the Caribbean. The eastern US experienced a wet LIA between 1650 and 1800. CE when the Caribbean was relatively dry. Comparison of the CB record with other records shows that the MCA and LIA were characterized by regionally asynchronous warming and complex spatial patterns of precipitation, possibly related to ocean-atmosphere processes. ?? 2010.

  3. The dynamical influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on continental climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Reilly, Christopher; Woollings, Tim; Zanna, Laure

    2017-04-01

    The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperature (SST) has been shown to influence the climate of the surrounding continents. However, it is unclear to what extent the observed impact of the AMO is related to the direct thermodynamical influence of the SST variability or the more complex changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. Here we use an analog method to decompose the observed impact of the AMO into dynamical and residual components of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation over the adjacent continents. Over Europe the decomposition exhibits strong seasonal dependence, with SAT anomalies being primarily dynamically driven in winter and spring, whereas in the summer the SAT anomalies are primarily thermodynamically driven. The overall precipitation response to the AMO is generally less significant than the SAT but is mostly dynamically driven in all seasons. The decomposition is also applied to the North American summer and the Sahel rainy season. Both dynamical and residual influences on the anomalous precipitation over the Sahel are substantial, with the former dominating over the western Sahel region and the latter being largest over the eastern Sahel region. The results have implications for understanding the spread in AMO variability in coupled climate models and decadal prediction systems.

  4. Clean Coal Technology: Region 4 Market Description, South Atlantic. Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-09-01

    The Region 4 Market Description Summary provides information that can be used in developing an understanding of the potential markets for clean coal technologies (CCTs) in the South Atlantic Region. This region (which geographically is Federal Region 4) consists of the following eight states: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. In order to understand the potential market. A description is provided of the region`s energy use, power generation capacity, and potential growth. Highlights of state government activities that could have a bearing on commercial deployment of CCTs are also presented. The potential markets characterized in this summary center on electric power generation by investor-owned, cooperative, and municipal electric utilities and involve planned new capacity additions and actions taken by utilities to comply with Phases I and II of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990. Regulations, policies, utility business strategies, and organizational changes that could impact the role of CCTs as a utility option are identified and discussed. The information used to develop the Region 4 Market Description is based mainly on an extensive review of plans and annual reports of 29 investor-owned, cooperative, and municipal coal-using electric utilities and public information on strategies and actions for complying with the CAAA of 1990.

  5. Impact of fluctuation of hydro-physical regime in the North Atlantic on the climate of Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Anisimov, Mikhail; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri

    2015-04-01

    In the mid-1970s a heat content in the North Atlantic Ocean has substantially changed. Because of its high energy value the event appears to have a significant impact on the regional environment. To verify this suggestion we analyzed the global ocean-atmosphere data related to the negative (1950-1970) and positive (1980-1999) phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The analysis of these data have shown the existence of a thermal dipole in the North Atlantic upper layer which can be interpreted in a sense as an oceanic counterpart of atmospheric NAO. To identify this North Atlantic Dipole (NAD) its index was considered as the ocean 0-100-m layer temperature difference between regions (20°-40°N; 80°-30°W) and (50°-70°N; 60°-10°W). Then the NAD index was suggested a possible physical mechanism factor of the regional ocean-atmosphere system variability which in turn could produce a draw effect on the recent climate of Eurasia. The study showed that the current phase (2000-2013) of the climate in the North Atlantic region becomes qualitatively similar to the situation, typical for period 1950-1970, when the index of continentality in the Eurasian region was a very high. There is a reason to believe that in the coming decades this index is likely to increase, that would be primarily manifested by relatively cold weather in winters and by hot-dry summer seasons. To assess the variability of ocean heat content it was used a General Ocean Circulation model developed at the Institute of numerical mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences. This model belongs to the class of σ-models, and its distinguishing feature is the splitting of the physical processes and spatial coordinates. By using the model there were performed numerical experiments for the evolution of hydrophysical regime of the North Atlantic Ocean at the period of 1958-2006, with a spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25° for 25 horizons with time window of 1 hour. As initial conditions for the

  6. Passive margin uplift around the North Atlantic region and its role in Northern Hemisphere late Cenozoic glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyles, Nicholas

    1996-02-01

    Tectonic-climatic models of late Cenozoic global cooling emphasize the importance of middle latitude uplifts (e.g., Tibetan Plateau and the American west) but ignore widespread tectonic events on the margins of the North Atlantic Ocean. Pleistocene glaciations, after 2.5 Ma, are characterized by circum North Atlantic continental ice sheets that formed by the coalescence of perennial snow fields on extensive plateau surfaces in eastern Canada, northwest Britain, and Scandinavia. Plateaus record Cenozoic uplift of peneplains in response to semisynchronous magmatic underplating and thermal buoyancy of rifted continental margins. High-standing plateaus are very sensitive to small reductions in summer temperature. As late Cenozoic climate cooling proceeded, driven by uplift in regions external to the North Atlantic region, elevated plateaus became sites for extensive snow fields and ultimately ice sheets. Circum-Atlantic uplift took place in the key latitudinal belt that is most sensitive to orbitally forced changes in solar irradiation; this, together with albedo effects from large snow fields, could have amplified the relatively weak Milankovitch signal.

  7. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations'' provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  8. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide ``A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations`` provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  9. "Climate Matters Documoments": Enabling Regionally-Specific Climate Awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) is a multidisciplinary program that enhances the ability of Pacific Island communities to understand, plan for, and adapt to climate-induced change. Using both social and physical science research methods, the Pacific RISA engages a network of regional decision-makers and stakeholders to help solve climate-related issues. Pacific RISA has a broad audience of local and regional decision-makers (i.e. natural resource managers, community planners, state and federal government agencies) and stakeholders (i.e. farmers and ranchers, fishermen, community and native islander groups). The RISA program engages with this audience through a mixed-method approach of two-way communication, including one-on-one interviews, workshops, consensus discussions and public presentations that allow us to tailor our efforts to the needs of specific stakeholders. A recent Pacific RISA project was the creation and production of four short, educational "documoment" videos that explore the different ways in which climate change in Hawaii affects stakeholders from different sectors. The documoments, generally titled "Climate Matters", start with a quote about why climate matters to each stakeholder: a rancher, a coastal hotel owner, the manager of a landfill, and the local branch of the National Weather Service. The narratives then have each stakeholder discussing how climate impacts their professional and personal lives, and describing the types of climate change they have experienced in the islands. Each video ends with a technical fact about how different climate variables in Hawaii (sea level, precipitation, ENSO) have actually changed within the last century of observational data. Freely available on www.PacificRISA.org, the Documoments have been viewed over 350 times, and have inspired similar video projects and received positive attention from different audiences of stakeholders and scientists. In other assessment work the

  10. Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyazilova, N.

    2010-09-01

    The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

  11. The Challenge of Simulating the Regional Climate over Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misra, V.; Mishra, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    In this study we show that the unique geography of the peninsular Florida with close proximity to strong mesoscale surface ocean currents among other factors warrants the use of relatively high resolution climate models to project Florida's hydroclimate. In the absence of such high resolution climate models we highlight the deficiencies of two relatively coarse spatial resolution CMIP5 models with respect to the warm western boundary current of the Gulf Stream. As a consequence it affects the coastal SST and the land-ocean contrast, affecting the rainy summer seasonal precipitation accumulation over peninsular Florida. We also show this through two sensitivity studies conducted with a regional coupled ocean atmosphere model with different bathymetries that dislocate and modulate the strength of the Gulf Stream that locally affects the SST in the two simulations. These studies show that a stronger and more easterly displaced Gulf Stream produces warmer coastal SST's along the Atlantic coast of Florida that enhances the precipitation over peninsular Florida relative to the other regional climate model simulation. However the regional model simulations indicate that variability of wet season rainfall variability in peninsular Florida becomes less dependent on the land-ocean contrast with a stronger Gulf Stream current.

  12. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  13. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  14. Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.; Cai, Wenju

    2016-06-01

    Complex interactions manifest between modes of tropical climate variability across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. For example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extends its influence on modes of variability in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, which in turn feed back onto ENSO. Interactions between pairs of modes can alter their strength, periodicity, seasonality, and ultimately their predictability, yet little is known about the role that a third mode plays. Here we examine the interactions and relative influences between pairs of climate modes using ensembles of 100-year partially coupled experiments in an otherwise fully coupled general circulation model. In these experiments, the air-sea interaction over each tropical ocean basin, as well as pairs of ocean basins, is suppressed in turn. We find that Indian Ocean variability has a net damping effect on ENSO and Atlantic Ocean variability, and conversely they each promote Indian Ocean variability. The connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic is most clearly revealed in the absence of Indian Ocean variability. Our model runs suggest a weak damping influence by Atlantic variability on ENSO, and an enhancing influence by ENSO on Atlantic variability.

  15. Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.; Cai, Wenju

    2017-04-01

    Complex interactions manifest between modes of tropical climate variability across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. For example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extends its influence on modes of variability in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, which in turn feed back onto ENSO. Interactions between pairs of modes can alter their strength, periodicity, seasonality, and ultimately their predictability, yet little is known about the role that a third mode plays. Here we examine the interactions and relative influences between pairs of climate modes using ensembles of 100-year partially coupled experiments in an otherwise fully coupled general circulation model. In these experiments, the air-sea interaction over each tropical ocean basin, as well as pairs of ocean basins, is suppressed in turn. We find that Indian Ocean variability has a net damping effect on ENSO and Atlantic Ocean variability, and conversely they each promote Indian Ocean variability. The connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic is most clearly revealed in the absence of Indian Ocean variability. Our model runs suggest a weak damping influence by Atlantic variability on ENSO, and an enhancing influence by ENSO on Atlantic variability.

  16. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    PubMed

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  17. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  18. The importance of the South Atlantic high pressure system for the Tropical Atlantic annual cycle: experiments with a regionally coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry; Jacob, Daniela; Wang, Qiang; Jung, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic (TA) are important for the climate in many regions. Because of this, it is important to simulate accurately the seasonal and interannual variability in this region. Currently, most of the coupled models suffer from serious biases in the TA. Identifying the causes of these biases is an important issue. Using a high-resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere regional model MPIOM- REMO (ROM) we explore the importance of the South Atlantic high pressure (SAH) for the simulated TA variability. In ROM a global ocean model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology. The coupling is active in the region covered by REMO, whereas in the rest of the ocean its circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Here we analyze two set of simulations that differ by the coupled area. In one of the setups, the atmospheric model domain includes the SAH, whereas in the second, the SAH is outside the region of active coupling. The first setup shows a much reduced warm bias in sea surface temperature (SST) in the warm pool and in the Angola-Bengela front. We analyze the contribution of the ocean and the atmosphere to these differences

  19. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-04

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition.

  20. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

    2012-01-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  1. Impacts of surface boundary conditions on regional climate model simulations of European climate during the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Raible, Christoph C.; Shao, Yaping

    2017-05-01

    We examine the influences of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vegetation on regional climate simulations over Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Simulated regional temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe are considerably improved when using revised SSTs based on proxy data. Likewise, the simulated permafrost is more accurately reproduced with the SST modifications. These improvements are partially related to the changed regional atmospheric circulation due to the revised SSTs, leading to colder and drier conditions over Western Europe. Further sensitivity tests with prescribed vegetation for LGM conditions provide evidence of the sensitivity of the simulated glacial climate. This study reveals the importance of considering more realistic SST and vegetation boundary conditions for a more accurate representation of regional climate variability under glacial conditions.

  2. A knowledge-based system for the diagnosis and prediction of short-term climatic changes in the North Atlantic

    SciTech Connect

    Rodionov, S.; Martin, J.H.

    1996-08-01

    Understanding and predicting climate change is the key problem in climatology. The most well-accepted current approach to this problem involves the development of general circulation models (GCMs). This approach is based on modeling fundamental physical principles in large computer programs. At the same time, however, an increasingly large proportion of the available information regarding the climate system exists in the form of heuristics, or empirical rules of thumb. The objective of the CESNA (Climatic Expert System For the North Atlantic) project is to develop a practical system that can manipulate this qualitative information in such a way as to facilitate insights into observed and anticipated climate changes. The methods used to reach this objective are based on concepts and techniques derived artificial intelligence research on representing and reasoning with uncertain knowledge. A recently completed evaluation of the prototype CESNA measured how well it could predict the sea temperature of the Kola section of the barents sea for the period 1965 to 1991 with a one-year lead time. The system`s predictions paralleled the observed temperatures with remarkable accuracy. Similar results were obtained for two other regions, the northwest Atlantic and the southeastern United States. Qualitatively, these experiments show that even though some rules may be poor predictors in a given year, the combined evidence from the remaining results in an accurate prediction. 37 refs., 1 fig.

  3. Distinguishing stratospheric sudden warmings from ENSO as key drivers of wintertime climate variability over the North Atlantic and Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polvani, Lorenzo; Sun, Lantao; Butler, Amy; Richter, Yaga; Deser, Clara

    2017-04-01

    Stratospheric conditions are increasingly being recognized as an important driver of North Atlantic and Eurasian climate variability. Mindful that the observational record is relatively short, and that internal climate variability can be large, we here analyze a new 10-member ensemble of integrations of a stratosphere-resolving, atmospheric general circulation model, forced with the observed evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) during 1952-2003. We confirm previous studies, and show that El Niño conditions enhance the frequency of occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), whereas La Niña does not appear to affect it. We note, however, large differences among ensemble members, suggesting caution when interpreting the relatively short observational record. More importantly, we emphasize that the majority of SSWs are not caused by anomalous tropical Pacific SSTs. Comparing composites of winters with and without SSWs in each ENSO phase separately, we demonstrate that stratospheric variability gives rise to large and statistically significant anomalies in tropospheric circulation and surface conditions over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. This indicates that, for those regions, climate variability of stratospheric origin is comparable in magnitude to variability originating from tropical Pacific SSTs, so that the occurrence of a single SSW in a given winter is able to completely alter seasonal climate predictions based solely on ENSO conditions

  4. Persistent positive North Atlantic oscillation mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

    PubMed

    Trouet, Valérie; Esper, Jan; Graham, Nicholas E; Baker, Andy; Scourse, James D; Frank, David C

    2009-04-03

    The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was the most recent pre-industrial era warm interval of European climate, yet its driving mechanisms remain uncertain. We present here a 947-year-long multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstruction and find a persistent positive NAO during the MCA. Supplementary reconstructions based on climate model results and proxy data indicate a clear shift to weaker NAO conditions into the Little Ice Age (LIA). Globally distributed proxy data suggest that this NAO shift is one aspect of a global MCA-LIA climate transition that probably was coupled to prevailing La Niña-like conditions amplified by an intensified Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA.

  5. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  6. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, L. G.; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Roberts, N. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

    2016-07-01

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ13C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  7. A composite annual-resolution stalagmite record of North Atlantic climate over the last three millennia

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Andy; C. Hellstrom, John; Kelly, Bryce F. J.; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Trouet, Valerie

    2015-01-01

    Annually laminated stalagmites can be used to construct a precise chronology, and variations in laminae thickness provide an annual growth-rate record that can be used as a proxy for past climate and environmental change. Here, we present and analyse the first composite speleothem annual growth-rate record based on five stalagmites from the same cave system in northwest Scotland, where precipitation is sensitive to North Atlantic climate variability and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our 3000-year record confirms persistently low growth-rates, reflective of positive NAO states, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Another persistently low growth period occurring at 290-550 CE coincides with the European Migration Period, and a subsequent period of sustained fast growth-rate (negative NAO) from 600-900 AD provides the climate context for the Viking Age in northern and western Europe. PMID:26068805

  8. Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizer, James; Goddard, Lisa; Guido, Zackry

    2015-04-01

    An integrated multi-disciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have joined forces with communities and institutions in the Caribbean, South Asia and West Africa to develop relevant, usable climate information and connect it to real decisions and development challenges. The overall objective of the "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience" program is to build community resilience to negative impacts of climate variability and change. We produce and provide science-based climate tools and information to vulnerable peoples and the public, private, and civil society organizations that serve them. We face significant institutional challenges because of the geographical and cultural distance between the locale of climate tool-makers and the locale of climate tool-users and because of the complicated, often-inefficient networks that link them. To use an accepted metaphor, there is great institutional difficulty in coordinating the supply of and the demand for useful climate products that can be put to the task of building local resilience and reducing climate vulnerability. Our program is designed to reduce the information constraint and to initiate a linkage that is more demand driven, and which provides a set of priorities for further climate tool generation. A demand-driven approach to the co-production of appropriate and relevant climate tools seeks to meet the direct needs of vulnerable peoples as these needs have been canvassed empirically and as the benefits of application have been adequately evaluated. We first investigate how climate variability and climate change affect the livelihoods of vulnerable peoples. In so doing we assess the complex institutional web within which these peoples live -- the public agencies that serve them, their forms of access to necessary information, the structural constraints

  9. Climate-related relative sea-level changes from Chesapeake Bay, U.S. Atlantic coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaw, Timothy; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Cahill, Niamh; Mann, Michael; Engelhart, Simon; Kopp, Robert; Brain, Matthew; Clear, Jennifer; Corbett, Reide; Nikitina, Daria; Garcia-Artola, Ane; Walker, Jennifer

    2017-04-01

    Proxy-based reconstructions of relative sea level (RSL) from the coastlines of the North Atlantic have revealed spatial and temporal variability in the rates of RSL rise during periods of known Late-Holocene climatic variability. Regional driving mechanisms for such variability include glacial isostatic adjustment, static-equilibrium of land-ice changes and/or ocean dynamic effects as well as more localized factors (e.g. sediment compaction and tidal range change). We present a 4000-year RSL reconstruction from salt-marsh sediments of the Chesapeake Bay using a foraminiferal-based transfer function and a composite chronology. A local contemporary training set of foraminifera was developed to calibrate fossil counterparts and provide estimates of paleo marsh elevation with vertical uncertainties of ±0.06m. A composite chronology combining 30 radiocarbon dates, pollen chronohorizons, regional pollution histories, and short-lived radionuclides was placed into a Bayesian age-depth framework yielding low temporal uncertainties averaging 40 years. A compression-only geotechnical model was applied to decompact the RSL record. We coupled the proxy reconstruction with direct observations from nearby tide gauge records before rates of RSL rise were quantified through application of an Errors-In-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process model. The RSL history for Chesapeake Bay shows 6 m of rise since 2000 BCE. Between 2000 BCE and 1300 BCE, rates of RSL increasing to 1.4 mm/yr precede a significant decrease to 0.8 mm/yr at 700 BCE. This minimum coincides with widespread climate cooling identified in multiple paleoclimate archives of the North Atlantic. An increase in the rate of RSL rise to 2.1 mm/yr at 200 CE similarly precedes a decrease in the rate of RSL rise at 1450 CE (1.3 mm/yr) that coincides with the Little Ice Age. Modern rates of RSL rise (3.6 mm/yr) are the fastest observed in the past 4000 years. The temporal length and decadal resolution of the RSL reconstruction

  10. The Opening of the Arctic-Atlantic Gateway: Tectonic, Oceanographic and Climatic Dynamics - an IODP Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geissler, W. H.; Knies, J.; Nielsen, T.; Gaina, C.; Matthiessen, J. J.; Gebhardt, C.; Damm, V.; Forwick, M.; Hjelstuen, B. O.; Hopper, J. R.; Husum, K.; Laberg, J. S.; Kuerschner, W.; Morigi, C.; Schreck, M.; Tripati, A. K.; Vogt, C. M.; Rebesco, M.; Nam, S. I.; Carlson, A. E.; De Schepper, S.; Lucchi, R.; Mattingsdal, R.; Jokat, W.; Stein, R. H.

    2014-12-01

    The modern polar cryosphere reflects an extreme climate state with profound temperature gradients towards high-latitudes. It developed in association with stepwise Cenozoic cooling, beginning with ephemeral glaciations and the appearance of sea ice in the late middle Eocene. The polar ocean gateways played a pivotal role in changing the polar and global climate, along with declining greenhouse gas levels. The opening of the Drake Passage finalized the oceanographic isolation of Antarctica, some 40 Ma ago. The Arctic Ocean was an isolated basin until the early Miocene when rifting and subsequent sea-floor spreading started between Greenland and Svalbard, initiating the opening of the Fram Strait / Arctic-Atlantic Gateway (AAG). Although this gateway is known to be important in Earth's past and modern climate, little is known about its Cenozoic development. However, the opening history and AAG's consecutive widening and deepening must have had a strong impact on circulation and water mass exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic. To study the AAG's complete history, ocean drilling at two primary sites and one alternate site located between 73°N and 78°N are proposed. These sites will provide unprecedented sedimentary records that will unveil (1) the history of shallow-water exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic, and (2) the development of the AAG to a deep-water connection and its influence on the global climate system. The specific overarching goals of our proposal are to study: • the influence of distinct tectonic events in the development of the AAG and the formation of deep water passage on the North Atlantic and Arctic paleoceanography, and • the role of the AAG in the climate transition from the Paleogene greenhouse to the Neogene icehouse for the long-term (~50 Ma) climate history of the northern North Atlantic.

  11. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH, MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA Region 3 to implement a long-term research, monitoring, and assessment program in the Mid-Atlantic region - the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). The MAIA mission is to develop a broad-based partnership to integrate scientific knowledge into the decision-making proc...

  12. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH, MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA Region 3 to implement a long-term research, monitoring, and assessment program in the Mid-Atlantic region - the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). The MAIA mission is to develop a broad-based partnership to integrate scientific knowledge into the decision-making proc...

  13. Investigation of IPCC AR4 coupled climate model North Atlantic mode water formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carman, Jessie C.; McClean, Julie L.

    The formation of mode waters in the North Atlantic was examined in the suite of ocean models that comprise the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). We constructed model climatologies for 1980-1999 from the 20th century simulations, and compared their mode water properties (temperature, salinity, formation rate, volume, turnover time, heat content) with data. In these models, we found biases in both the properties of the mode waters and their formation rates. For Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), property biases principally involved salinity errors; additionally, some models form SPMW in an anomalous region west of the British Isles, shifting the source location of waters entering the overturning cell and altering the Nordic Seas' involvement in the Meridional Overturning Circulation. For Subtropical Mode Water (STMW), property biases involved both salinity and temperature errors, while positioning of heat and water fluxes relative to the Gulf Stream and northwest Sargasso Sea influenced STMW formation rate. Deficiencies in STMW formation rate and volume produced a turnover time of 1-2 years, approximately half of that observed; these variations in mode water bulk properties imply variation in ocean heat storage and advection, and hence deficiencies in all the models' abilities to adequately respond to changes in climatic forcing.

  14. Regional climate science: lessons and opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P. W.; Miles, E. L.; Whitely Binder, L.

    2008-12-01

    Since its founding in 1995, the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington (UW) has achieved remarkable success at translating global- and regional-scale science into forms and products that are useful to, and used by, decision-makers. From GCM scenarios to research on the connection between global climate patterns and locally important factors like floods and wildfires, CIG's strong physical science foundation is matched by a vigorous and successful outreach program. As a result, CIG and its partner the Office of Washington State Climatologist at UW have made substantial progress at bridging the gap between climate science and decision-making, and are deeply involved in advising all levels of government and many business interests on adapting to climate variability and change. This talk will showcase some of the specific activities and tools, describe lessons learned, and illustrate how such efforts fit into a "National Climate Service."

  15. Climate reconstruction for the last two millennia in central Iberia: The role of East Atlantic (EA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their interplay over the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez-López, G.; Hernández, A.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Trigo, R. M.; Toro, M.; Granados, I.; Sáez, A.; Masqué, P.; Pueyo, J. J.; Rubio-Inglés, M. J.; Giralt, S.

    2016-10-01

    A multi-proxy characterization of the uppermost sedimentary infill of an Iberian alpine lake (Cimera, 2140 m a.s.l.) was performed to establish the climatic and environmental conditions for the Iberian Central Range (ICR) over the last two millennia. This multi-proxy characterization was used to reconstruct the intense runoff events, lake productivity and soil erosion in the lake catchment and interpret these factors in terms of temperature and precipitation variability. The Roman Period (RP; 200 BCE - 500 CE) beginning was characterized by an alternation between cold and warm periods as indicated by short-lived oscillations of intense runoff conditions and soil erosion, although warm conditions dominated the end of the period and the Early Middle Age (EMA; 500-900 CE) onset in the ICR. A noticeable decrease in intense runoff events and a progressive decrease in soil erosion during the late EMA indicated a shift to colder temperatures. In terms of precipitation, both the RP and EMA climate periods displayed a transition from dry to wet conditions that led to a decrease in lake productivity. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1300 CE) was characterized by warm and dry conditions with frequent intense runoff episodes and increases in lake productivity and soil erosion, whereas the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300-1850 CE) showed the opposite characteristics. The Industrial Era (1850-2012 CE) presented an increase in lake productivity that likely demonstrates the influence of global warming. The spatio-temporal integration of the Cimera record with other Iberian reconstructions has been used to identify the main climate drivers over this region. During the RP and EMA, N-S and E-W humidity gradients were dominant, whereas during the MCA and LIA, these gradients were not evident. These differences could be ascribed to interactions between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) phases. During the RP, the general warm conditions and the E-W humidity

  16. The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schimanke, S.; Meier, H. E. M.; Kjellström, E.; Strandberg, G.; Hordoir, R.

    2012-09-01

    Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical downscaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of changing external forcing conditions, the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first centuries followed by a gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases in the last centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a Little Ice Age (LIA), is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In particular, we find that a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO index in the LIA reduces them. In a second step, the regional ocean model (RCO-SCOBI) is used to investigate the impact of atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea, the water becomes fresher at all levels during the MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks.

  17. The Climate Shift and the Climate Variability in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez Parages, Jorge; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen

    2010-05-01

    The so-called "climate shift" (CS) was defined at the beginning of the nineties as a dramatic change between 1976-77 in the basic state of the tropical Pacific and in the ENSO dynamics. Nowadays, the 1976-1977 shift is interpreted as a phase change in a decadal scale oscillation (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO, Mantua et al. 1997) lasting from about 1976 to 1988 (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994, Miller et al. 1994). However, several changes in the global climate have been reported after the CS; as changes in the air-sea interactions and in the tropical and extratropical teleconnection patterns. The climate variability of the Mediterranean area is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Hurrell, 2003), which frequency and positive phase intensity has suffered an increase after the CS unprecedented in the instrumental period, in coincidence with extreme drought conditions in the Mediterranean region. This results remark the non-stationary variability of the NAO (Vicente-Serrano and López-Moreno, 2008b) and the existence of changes in the underlying dynamics. In addition, Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and ENSO have also shown to exhibit a strong and non- stationary influence in the Mediterranean basin, with maximum correlations at the beginning of the twenty century and since the CS (Mariotti et al. 2002), in concordance with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) evolution. A recent singular discovery show the influence of the Atlantic Niño on its Pacific counterpart (Rodríguez-Fonseca et al. 2009; Losada et al. 2009), a relation that was statistically pointed out in Polo et al. (2008a). These results remark the increasing importance of the TAV on the global climate and on the observed change, from the late 70's, in the global teleconnections. Although some studies point out the seasonal dependence of the leading modes of precipitation variability over Europe (Zveryaev, 2006), in this work, a gridded monthly terrestrial gauge

  18. Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal.

    PubMed

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

    2013-05-01

    The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or "unit" and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem.

  19. Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal

    PubMed Central

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

    2013-01-01

    The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or “unit” and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:23762521

  20. Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C.-Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Wehner, M. F.; Friedman, A. R.; Ruedy, R.

    2011-01-01

    The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

  1. Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation simulated in the CMIP5 models: A re-evaluation based on a revised index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyu, Kewei; Yu, Jin-Yi

    2017-04-01

    The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has pronounced influences on weather and climate across the globe. This study provides a direct comparison of the observed AMO-related surface temperature and precipitation anomalies to those simulated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. It is found that the model-simulated AMO-related features are obscured by the global signal in some key regions if the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) itself is used to represent the AMO as in previous studies. After the global mean SST is removed from the North Atlantic SST, the CMIP5 models show substantially better agreement with the observations in terms of the AMO-related worldwide impacts, such as the Pacific SST and the rainfall over the United States and India. These results suggest the removal of the global signal or signals originating in other ocean basins is a necessary procedure to uncover the AMO features in climate model simulations.

  2. Climatic Forcing of Intense North Atlantic Hurricane Activity over the Last Two Millennia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Lane, P.; Toomey, M.; Rodysill, J. R.; Hawkes, A. D.; van Henstum, P. J.; Wallace, D. J.; MacDonald, D.

    2013-12-01

    in the strength in the Labrador Current, likely increased tropical cyclone intensities during this time interval. Further, the southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone at this time, possibly related to increasing northern hemisphere ice at the onset of the Little Ice Age, may have led to increased tropical cyclone genesis off the southeastern United States. Given that this variability is observed only in the most intense storms, anti-phasing of intense hurricane activity between the East and Gulf coasts is likely not simply a function of changing hurricane tracks. Thus, in addition to climatic forcing of basin wide changes in intense hurricane activity, regional controls on the frequency of intense hurricanes (e.g., Loop Current penetration in the Gulf of Mexico and increased Gulf Stream transport along the eastern seaboard of the US), and shifting areas in tropical cyclone genesis likely also have driven variability in Atlantic paleohurricane records over the last two millennia.

  3. Pesticides in surface water of the Mid-Atlantic region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ferrari, Matthew J.; Ator, Scott W.; Blomquist, Joel D.; Dysart, Joel E.

    1997-01-01

    Water-quality data from 463 surface-water sites were compiled and analyzed to document the occurrence and distribution of pesticides in surface water of the Mid-Atlantic region as part of the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Those data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey from October 1973 through March 1997 were used in the analyses. Data are available for a large part of the Mid-Atlantic region, but large spatial gaps in the data do exist. USGS data bases contained analyses of surface-water samples for 127 pesticide compounds, including 12 degradates, but only 16 of the compounds were commonly detected. Atrazine, metolachlor, simazine, prometon, alachlor, tebuthiuron, cyanazine, diazinon, carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, pendimethalin, 2,4-D, dieldrin, DCPA, metribuzin, and desethylatrazine (an atrazine degradate) were detected in more than 100 of the samples analyzed. At least one pesticide was detected in about 75 percent of the samples collected and at more than 90 percent of the sites sampled. Concentrations greater than the Federal Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for drinking water of 3 micrograms per liter (ug/L) for atrazine were found in 67 of 2,076 samples analyzed; concentrations greater than the MCL of 2ug/L for alachlor were found in 13 of 1,693 samples analyzed, and concentrations greater than the MCL of 4 ug/L for simazine were found in 17 of 1,995 samples analyzed. Concentrations of four pesticides were greater than Federal Health Advisory levels for drinking water, and concentrations of nine pesticides were greater than Federal Ambient Water-Quality Criteria for the Protection of Aquatic Organisms. Streams draining basins with different land uses tend to have different pesticide detection frequencies and median concentrations. Median concentrations of herbicides tend to be highest in streams draining basins in which the major land use is agriculture, whereas median concentrations of insecticides

  4. Ibero Atlantic Forested Wetlands: Plant-Abiotic Interactions at a Regional Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez, P. R.; Ferreira, T.; Albuquerque, A.; Espirito-Santo, D.; Ramil-Rego, P.

    2005-05-01

    In biogeographical terms, forested wetlands are considered azonal ecosystems due to their special edaphic conditions. Duration of waterlogging decreases the effect of regional climate in vegetation communities. In this work we test this hypothesis by studying the relative contribution of spatial and environmental variation. Plant community composition and vertical structure were inventoried in inland forested wetlands along the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula. The study area ranges from latitude N 44° to 38° and includes Temperate and Mediterranean climate. Forested wetlands area was delimitated and sampled using plots where all the vascular plants and bryophytes were registered and their percentage cover estimated. Collected environmental regional variables included geographic, climatic, geologic and hydro geomorphologic data. Multivariate analysis was used to interpret species abundance data to assess the relative weight of environmental conditions and the spatial structure in the species data variation. Results of species-environment treatment revealed that tree overstorey species were determinant for vegetation types and that hydroperiod was the key abiotic variable classifying forested wetlands.

  5. Climate impacts of regional SO2 emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamarque, J. F.; Fiore, A. M.; Shindell, D. T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate impacts of regional SO2 emissions J.-F. Lamarque, A. M. Fiore and D. Shindell In this talk, we present the analysis of constant -forcing present-day simulations pertaining to the perturbation of SO2 emissions over the United States and China. Using 3 chemistry-climate models (CESM, GFDL and GISS), we show that the removal of SO2 anthropogenic emissions over each region leads to significant (at the 95% or above; significance is also assessed relative to internal variability as determined from a 200-year control simulation with perpetual year 2000 conditions) perturbations in temperature over multiple regions of the Northern Hemisphere. While more limited, significant perturbations in regional precipitation are also found. While the overall (global and zonal means) forcing from Chinese emissions is similar to the US case, we found that the regional response to the emissions has different regional distributions.

  6. Sensitivity of climate and Atlantic overturning circulation to uncertain ocean gateway configurations for the late Miocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradshaw, C.; Lunt, D. J.; Flecker, R.; Martinez-Mendez, G.

    2013-12-01

    The palaeorecord documents late Miocene (11.6-5.3 Ma) climate to be much warmer and wetter than today yet CO2 reconstructions are similar to modern levels. Given the apparent decoupling between CO2 and warmth for this period we investigate here the role of the oceans. The late Miocene experienced significant tectonic change including the restriction of some of the last ocean gateways to close (Panama Gateway and Indonesian Seaway) and open (Bering Strait and Barents/Kara Sea). However, the timing and configuration of these tectonic changes is uncertain. The final closure of the Panama Gateway is dated to the Pliocene, but continental mammal exchange suggests the existence of a Central American archipelago from the mid-late Miocene. The Bering Strait is typically assumed to have opened at the very end of the late Miocene/early Pliocene based on diatom exchange, but other marine and terrestrial evidence points to a much earlier, perhaps intermittent, opening. The timing of the restriction of the Indonesian Seaway is very poorly constrained at middle Miocene to Pliocene. The Barents Sea and Kara Sea shelves are documented as having being subject to extensive glacial erosion and post-glacial uplift since the Pliocene and throughout the Quaternary but records of uplift and erosion during the earlier Cenozoic are limited. However, the presence of significant preglacial sediments suggests that this region underwent tectonic uplift, volcanism and subsequent erosion during the Eocene-Miocene period although the age assignment of the data remains controversial. The Panama Gateway has been suggested to influence North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production through numerous modelling studies, the Bering Strait has been suggested to greatly impact NADW during the Quaternary, and the strength of Indonesian Throughflow is hypothesised to influence Agulhas Leakage, which, in turn, has been speculated to influence Atlantic meridional overturning and thus NADW production. Here, we

  7. A coupled regional climate-biosphere model for climate studies

    SciTech Connect

    Bossert, J.; Winterkamp, J.; Barnes, F.; Roads, J.

    1996-04-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The objective of this project has been to develop and test a regional climate modeling system that couples a limited-area atmospheric code to a biosphere scheme that properly represents surface processes. The development phase has included investigations of the impact of variations in surface forcing parameters, meteorological input data resolution, and model grid resolution. The testing phase has included a multi-year simulation of the summer climate over the Southwest United States at higher resolution than previous studies. Averaged results from a nine summer month simulation demonstrate the capability of the regional climate model to produce a representative climatology of the Southwest. The results also show the importance of strong summertime thermal forcing of the surface in defining this climatology. These simulations allow us to observe the climate at much higher temporal and spatial resolutions than existing observational networks. The model also allows us to see the full three-dimensional state of the climate and thereby deduce the dominant physical processes at any particular time.

  8. North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Abrupt Climate Change through the Last Glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, G., III; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Keigwin, L. D.; Giosan, L.

    2014-12-01

    The climate of the glacial North Atlantic was punctuated by catastrophic discharges of icebergs (Heinrich events), as well as by more mysterious, abrupt warming events associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. These events are suspected to be related to changes in AMOC and its influence on heat transport and the regional and global heat budget. Investigation of these rapid oscillations is often limited by the resolution of sediment records. High accumulation rates at our study site (33.69°N, 57.58°W, 4583m water depth) on the Bermuda Rise allow improved resolution by one to two orders of magnitude. Cores CDH19 (38.81m) and CDH13 (36.70m), were recovered during KNR191, the initial deployment of the RV Knorr's long coring system developed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution with support from the NSF. These cores contain high quality sediment sections that allow high resolution studies extending through the last glacial cycle at a key location for monitoring past oceanographic and climatic variability. Here we present detailed multi-proxy data from Bermuda Rise sediments reflecting deep ocean chemistry and dynamics of the last glaciation, and combine them with published data to produce a continuous, high resolution record spanning the last 70,000 years. CaCO3 burial fluxes, foraminifera stable isotopes, and sedimentary uranium-series disequilibria (including seawater-derived 231Pa /230Th), display coherent, complementary variability throughout the last glaciation. Glacial values in each proxy are consistent with reduced ventilation and overturning compared to the Holocene, with intervals that indicate substantial millennial reductions in each, and others when they briefly approach Holocene levels. In multiple instances, particularly spanning interstadials eight through twelve (IS8-IS12) our results are consistent with an abrupt, subcentennial acceleration in the export of excess 231Pa from the North Atlantic during stadial-interstadial transitions

  9. Climate Variability in the Subarctic Area for the Last Two Millennia: Influence of North Atlantic Sector and Millennial Trend.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolle, M.; Debret, M.; Massei, N.; Hormes, A.; Swingedouw, D.; Christophe, C.; de Vernal, A.; Arctic 2k Working Group

    2016-12-01

    Understanding climate variability for the last two millennia is an key issue to propose new constraints on climate modeling. This study is based on the Arctic2k database compiled by the PAGES Arctic2k working group. All records meet several quality criteria concerning location, time period span, resolution and age-dating control. All the proxy used are sensitivity to temperature changes. The database high quality allows to investigate climate variability from millennial trend to high frequencies. There is spatially heterogeneous record distribution throughout the Arctic-subarctic area, most of the archives being located in the North Atlantic sector. We divided the study region into 3 sectors (Siberia, Alaska and North Atlantic areas) and compared them to the global Arctic2k temperature reconstruction using statistics and signal analysis method (wavelet coherence). Wavelet coherence allows investigation of the relationships in time-frequency space between two time series and identification of common variability. The results highlight better significant correlations between North Atlantic and global Arctic signals. The results is confirmed by wavelet coherence, showing common variability at centennial to multi-centennial scales. Millennial trends showed significant cooling trends before 1900 A.D., except for two records. Cooling trends are consistent with reconstructed temperatures for north hemisphere and warming trends seemed to be the results of regional particularity. Studying millennial variability also highlights the inconsistency between some marine proxies which reflect summer temperatures. The characterization of centennial to multidecadal variability will be an important issue to link the high frequency variability of paleoclimate series to low frequency variability recorded by instrumental data.

  10. Robust features of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and its climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ting, Mingfang; Kushnir, Yochanan; Seager, Richard; Li, Cuihua

    2011-09-01

    Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), also known as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), is characterized by a sharp rise and fall of the North Atlantic basin-wide sea surface temperatures (SST) on multi-decadal time scales. Widespread consequences of these rapid temperature swings were noted in many previous studies. Among these are the drying of Sahel in the 1960-70s and change in the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes on multi-decadal time scales. Given the short instrumental data records (about a century long) the central question is whether these climate fluctuations are robustly linked with the AMV and to what extent are these connections subject to changes in a changing climate. Here we address this issue by using the CMIP3 simulations for the 20th, 21st, and pre-industrial eras with 23 IPCC models. While models tend to produce AMV of shorter time scales and less periodic than suggested by the observations, the spatial structures of the SST anomaly patterns, and their association with worldwide precipitation, are surprisingly similar between models (with differing external forcing) and observations. Our results confirm the strong link between AMV and Sahel rainfall and suggest a clear physical mechanism for the linkage in terms of meridional shifts of the Atlantic ITCZ. The results also help clarify influences that may not be robust, such as the impacts over North America, India, and Australia.

  11. Climatic variability between SST and river discharge at Amazon region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, M. E.; Silva, E. R. L.

    2012-04-01

    Climatic variability, related both to precipitation and river discharge, has been associated to ocean variability. Authors commonly relate Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variation to South America (SA) precipitation. Zonal displacement of Walker cell, with intensified subsidence over northern portion of SA, Subtropical Jet strengthening/weakening over extratropical latitudes of SA are, respectively, dynamical reasons scientifically accepted for increasing and depletion of precipitation at the respective areas. Many studies point out the influence of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in relation to precipitation/river discharge variability over northeast of Brazil. Aliseos variability at tropical Atlantic is also a physic process that contributes to explain precipitation and river flow variability over SA, mainly over the north portion. In this study, we aim to investigate the temporal correlation between SST, mainly from Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and rivers discharge at the Amazon region. Ji-Parana, Madeira and Tapajós river discharge in monthly and annual scale, between 1968 and 2008, were the time series selected to reach the purpose. Time series for river discharge were obtained from Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA, in Portuguese) and, SST data were obtained from CDC/NOAA. Before linear correlation computations between river discharge and SST have been made, seasonal cycle and linear tendency were removed from all original time series. Areas better correlated to river discharge at Amazon region show oceanic patterns apparently associated to PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and ENSO (El Niño-South Oscillation) variability, with absolute values greater than 0.3 and reaching 0.5 or 0.6. The spatial pattern observed at Pacific basin is similar to that showed by the first mode of PCA (Principal Component Analysis), such seen in many studies (the "horse shoe" pattern). In general, negative correlation values appear far more to the west of Pacific basin

  12. The Opening of the Arctic-Atlantic Gateway: Tectonic, Oceanographic and Climatic Dynamics - an IODP Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geissler, Wolfram; Knies, Jochen

    2016-04-01

    The modern polar cryosphere reflects an extreme climate state with profound temperature gradients towards high-latitudes. It developed in association with stepwise Cenozoic cooling, beginning with ephemeral glaciations and the appearance of sea ice in the late middle Eocene. The polar ocean gateways played a pivotal role in changing the polar and global climate, along with declining greenhouse gas levels. The opening of the Drake Passage finalized the oceanographic isolation of Antarctica, some 40 Ma ago. The Arctic Ocean was an isolated basin until the early Miocene when rifting and subsequent sea-floor spreading started between Greenland and Svalbard, initiating the opening of the Fram Strait / Arctic-Atlantic Gateway (AAG). Although this gateway is known to be important in Earth's past and modern climate, little is known about its Cenozoic development. However, the opening history and AAG's consecutive widening and deepening must have had a strong impact on circulation and water mass exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic. To study the AAG's complete history, ocean drilling at two primary sites and one alternate site located between 73°N and 78°N in the Boreas Basin and along the East Greenland continental margin are proposed. These sites will provide unprecedented sedimentary records that will unveil (1) the history of shallow-water exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic, and (2) the development of the AAG to a deep-water connection and its influence on the global climate system. The specific overarching goals of our proposal are to study: (1) the influence of distinct tectonic events in the development of the AAG and the formation of deep water passage on the North Atlantic and Arctic paleoceanography, and (2) the role of the AAG in the climate transition from the Paleogene greenhouse to the Neogene icehouse for the long-term (~50 Ma) climate history of the northern North Atlantic. Getting a continuous record of the

  13. Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11

    PubMed Central

    Kandiano, Evgenia S.; van der Meer, Marcel T. J.; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.; Bauch, Henning A.

    2017-01-01

    Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate. PMID:28393849

  14. Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.

    PubMed

    Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A

    2017-04-10

    Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

  15. Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kandiano, Evgenia S.; van der Meer, Marcel T. J.; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.; Bauch, Henning A.

    2017-04-01

    Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

  16. Combined influences of seasonal East Atlantic Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation to excite Atlantic multidecadal variability in a climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Cassou, Christophe

    2015-01-01

    The physical processes underlying the internal component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) are investigated from a 1,000-yr pre-industrial control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model. The low-frequency fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are shown to be the main precursor for the model AMV. The full life cycle of AMOC/AMV events relies on a complex time-evolving relationship with both North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) that must be considered from a seasonal perspective in order to isolate their action; the ocean is responsible for setting the multidecadal timescale of the fluctuations. AMOC rise leading to a warm phase of AMV is statistically preceded by wintertime NAO+ and EAP+ from ~Lag -40/-20 yrs. Associated wind stress anomalies induce an acceleration of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and enhanced northward transport of warm and saline subtropical water. Concurrent positive salinity anomalies occur in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas in link to local sea-ice decline; those are advected by the Eastern Greenland Current to the Labrador Sea participating to the progressive densification of the SPG and the intensification of ocean deep convection leading to AMOC strengthening. From ~Lag -10 yrs prior an AMOC maximum, opposite relationship is found with the NAO for both summer and winter seasons. Despite negative lags, NAO- at that time is consistent with the atmospheric response through teleconnection to the northward shift/intensification of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in link to the ongoing warming of tropical north Atlantic basin due to AMOC rise/AMV build-up. NAO- acts as a positive feedback for the full development of the model AMV through surface fluxes but, at the same time, prepares its termination through negative retroaction on AMOC. Relationship between EAP+ and AMOC is also present in summer from ~Lags -30/+10 yrs while winter EAP- is favored around the AMV peak. Based on

  17. Regional influence of decadal to multidecadal Atlantic Oscillations during the last two millennia in Morocco, inferred from two high resolution δ18O speleothem records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ait Brahim, Yassine; Sifeddine, Abdelfettah; Khodri, Myriam; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Cruz, Francisco W.; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Cheng, Hai

    2017-04-01

    Climate projections predict substantial increase of extreme heats and drought occurrences during the coming decades in Morocco. It is however not clear what can be attributed to natural climate variability and to anthropogenic forcing, as hydroclimate variations observed in areas such as Morocco are highly influenced by the Atlantic climate modes. Since observational data sets are too short to resolve properly natural modes of variability acting on decadal to multidecadal timescales, high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are the only alternative to reconstruct climate variability in the remote past. Herein, we present two high resolution and well dated speleothems oxygen isotope (δ18O) records sampled from Chaara and Ifoulki caves (located in Northeastern and Southwestern Morocco respectively) to investigate hydroclimate variations during the last 2000 years. Our results are supported by a monitoring network of δ18O in precipitation from 17 stations in Morocco. The new paleoclimate records are discussed in the light of existing continental and marine paleoclimate proxies in Morocco to identify significant correlations at various lead times with the main reconstructed oceanic and atmospheric variability modes and possible climate teleconnections that have potentially influenced the climate during the last two millennia in Morocco. The results reveal substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords. Evidence of dry conditions exist during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period and the Climate Warm Period (CWP) and humid conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) period. Statistical analyses suggest that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last two millennia. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably

  18. Southern Hemisphere water mass conversion linked with North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Pahnke, Katharina; Zahn, Rainer

    2005-03-18

    Intermediate water variability at multicentennial scales is documented by 340,000-year-long isotope time series from bottom-dwelling foraminifers at a mid-depth core site in the southwest Pacific. Periods of sudden increases in intermediate water production are linked with transient Southern Hemisphere warm episodes, which implies direct control of climate warming on intermediate water conversion at high southern latitudes. Coincidence with episodes of climate cooling and minimum or halted deepwater convection in the North Atlantic provides striking evidence for interdependence of water mass conversion in both hemispheres, with implications for interhemispheric forcing of ocean thermohaline circulation and climate instability.

  19. Atlantic Induced Pan-tropical Climate Variability in the Upper-ocean and Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

    2016-02-01

    During the last three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-Western Pacific but cooling over the Eastern Pacific. The Eastern Pacific cooling has recently been identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus. Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean, which could potentially contribute to this zonally asymmetric SST pattern. However, the mechanisms and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. To investigate these questions, we performed a `pacemaker' simulation by restoring the tropical Atlantic SST changes in a state-of-the-art climate model - the CESM1. Results show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnections, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute 55%-75% of the total tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. A hierarchy of oceanic and atmospheric models are then used to investigate the physical mechanisms of these teleconnections: the Atlantic warming enhances atmospheric deep convection, drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific through the Kelvin wave, and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution (Fig1a). These wind changes induce an Indo-Western Pacific warming via the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the upper Pacific Ocean by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean-dynamical processes (Fig1b). The teleconnection finally develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern with an enhanced trade wind and Walker circulation, similar as the observed changes during the satellite era. This mechanism reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought, and the Atlantic plays a key role in the tropical climate pattern formation and further the

  20. Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, J.; Schrum, C.; Cannaby, H.; Daewel, U.; Allen, I.; Artioli, Y.; Bopp, L.; Butenschon, M.; Fach, B. A.; Harle, J.; Pushpadas, D.; Salihoglu, B.; Wakelin, S.

    2014-02-01

    Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the

  1. Abrupt climate fluctuations in the tropics: the influence of Atlantic Ocean circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Street-Perrott, F. Alayne; Perrott, R. Alan

    1990-02-01

    Several prolonged droughts in the Sahel and tropical Mexico during the past 14,000 years were coincident with large injections of fresh water into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. The link between these phenomena lies in the thermohaline circulation of the oceans: input of fresh water decreases salinity leading to reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation and anomalies of sea surface temperature of the kind associated with decreased rainfall in the northern tropics. Ice-sheet disintegration, the most important source of fresh-water input to the oceans, should therefore be considered explicitly in models of past and future climate.

  2. Identification of sources contributing to Mid-Atlantic regional aerosol.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jong Hoon; Yoshida, Yasuko; Turpin, Barbara J; Hopke, Philip K; Poirot, Richard L; Lioy, Paul J; Oxley, James C

    2002-10-01

    Source types or source regions contributing to the concentration of atmospheric fine particles measured at Brigantine National Wildlife Refuge, NJ, were identified using a factor analysis model called Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). Cluster analysis of backward air trajectories on days of high- and low-factor concentrations was used to link factors to potential source regions. Brigantine is a Class I visibility area with few local sources in the center of the eastern urban corridor and is therefore a good location to study Mid-Atlantic regional aerosol. Sulfate (expressed as ammonium sulfate) was the most abundant species, accounting for 49% of annual average fine mass. Organic compounds (22%; expressed as 1.4 x organic carbon) and ammonium nitrate (10%) were the next abundant species. Some evidence herein suggests that secondary organic aerosol formation is an important contributor to summertime regional aerosol. Nine factors were identified that contributed to PM2.5 mass concentrations: coal combustion factors (66%, summer and winter), sea salt factors (9%, fresh and aged), motor vehicle/mixed combustion (8%), diesel/Zn-Pb (6%), incinerator/industrial (5%), oil combustion (4%), and soil (2%). The aged sea salt concentrations were highest in springtime, when the land breeze-sea breeze cycle is strongest. Comparison of backward air trajectories of high- and low-concentration days suggests that Brigantine is surrounded by sources of oil combustion, motor vehicle/mixed combustion, and waste incinerator/industrial emissions that together account for 17% of PM2.5 mass. The diesel/Zn-Pb factor was associated with sources north and west of Brigantine. Coal combustion factors were associated with coal-fired power plants west and southwest of the site. Particulate carbon was associated not only with oil combustion, motor vehicle/mixed combustion, waste incinerator/industrial, and diesel/Pb-Zn, but also with the coal combustion factors, perhaps through common transport.

  3. A Subtropical North Atlantic Regional Atmospheric Moisture Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bingham, F.; D'Addezio, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    The synergistic effects of evaporation (E), precipitation (P), and Ekman transport make the SPURS (Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study) region in the subtropical North Atlantic (15-30°N, 30-45°W) the ideal location for the world's highest open ocean sea surface salinity. Using the MERRA and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses, we reproduce the mean hydrologic state of the atmosphere over the SPURS region since 1979 and roughly deduce the change in salinity across the meridional domain due solely to interactions between E-P and Ekman transport. Our findings suggest a region that is highly evaporative at a mean rate of 4.87 mm/day with a standard deviation of 1.2 mm/day and little seasonality. Precipitation is much more variable with an annual fall maximum around 3 mm/day but only a mean rate of 1.37 mm/day with a standard deviation of 1.46 mm/day. The resulting E-P variable has a mean rate of 3.50 mm/day with a standard deviation of 1.92 mm/day and matches well with the moisture flux divergence term although the former is typically larger by a small margin. Strong prevailing easterly trade winds generate northward Ekman transports that advect water northward to the salinity maximum around 25°N. A short calculation shows that atmospheric moisture dynamics could potentially account for almost half of the change in salinity between 15°N and 25°N giving an estimate of the role that surface freshwater flux plays in the maintenance of the salinity maximum.

  4. A subtropical North Atlantic regional atmospheric moisture budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Addezio, Joseph M.; Bingham, Frederick M.

    2014-12-01

    The synergistic effects of evaporation (E), precipitation (P), and Ekman transport make the Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study (SPURS-1) region in the subtropical North Atlantic (15-30°N, 30-45°W) the natural location for the world's highest open ocean SSS maximum. Using the MERRA and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses, we reproduce the mean hydrologic state of the atmosphere over the SPURS-1 region since 1979 and roughly deduce the change in salinity across the meridional domain due solely to interactions between E-P and Ekman transport. Our findings suggest a region that is highly evaporative at a mean rate of 4.87 mm/d with a standard deviation of 1.2 mm/d and little seasonality. Precipitation is much more variable with an annual fall maximum around 3 mm/d but only a mean rate of 1.37 mm/d with a standard deviation of 1.46 mm/d. The resulting E-P variable has a mean rate of 3.50 mm/d with a standard deviation of 1.92 mm/d and matches well with the moisture flux divergence term although the former is typically larger by a small margin. Strong prevailing easterly trade winds generate northward Ekman transports that advect water toward the salinity maximum around 25°N. A short calculation shows that atmospheric moisture dynamics could potentially account for about one third of the change in salinity between 15°N and 25°N giving an estimate of the role that surface freshwater flux plays in the maintenance of the salinity maximum.

  5. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  6. Investigation into regional climate variability using tree-ring reconstruction, climate diagnostics and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barandiaran, Daniel A.

    This document is a summary of research conducted to develop and apply climate analysis tools toward a better understanding of the past and future of hydroclimate variability in the state of Utah. Two pilot studies developed data management and climate analysis tools subsequently applied to our region of interest. The first investigated the role of natural atmospheric forcing in the inter-annual variability of precipitation of the Sahel region in Africa, and found a previously undocumented link with the East Atlantic mode, which explains 29% of variance in regional precipitation. An analysis of output from an operational seasonal climate forecast model revealed a failure in the model to reproduce this linkage, thus highlighting a shortcoming in model performance. The second pilot study studied long-term trends in the strength of the Great Plains low-level jet, an driver of storm development in the region's wet spring season. Our analysis showed that since 1979 the low-level jet has strengthened as shifted the timing of peak activity, resulting in shifts both in time and location for peak precipitation, possibly the result of anthropogenic forcing. Our third study used a unique tree-ring dataset to create a reconstruction of April 1 snow water equivalent, an important measure of water supply in the Intermountain West, for the state of Utah to 1850. Analysis of the reconstruction shows the majority of snowpack variability occurs monotonically over the whole state at decadal to multidecadal frequencies. The final study evaluated decadal prediction performance of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We found that the analyzed models exhibit modest skill in prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and better skill in prediction of global temperature trends post 1960.

  7. The timber economy of the Mid-Atlantic region: some preliminary results from the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment

    Treesearch

    P.B. Aruna; D. Evan Mercer

    1999-01-01

    The Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA) is a multi-agency effort headed by the USEPA to assess the health and sustainability of ecosystems in an 8 state region. We present some preliminary results on the economic impact of forest industries from the socio-economic component of the MAIA forest assessment. Employment and income trends between1975-1995 are examined...

  8. Contrasted climatic trends in the Atlantic vs. Pacific gateways of the Arctic Ocean during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vernal, A.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; Rochon, A.

    2013-12-01

    The reconstruction of sea-surface conditions including sea ice cover was undertaken based on about 20 marine sediment cores collected in the Arctic Ocean and subarctic seas. The approach has been standardized and mostly relies on the modern analogue technique applied to dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, which permit simultaneous estimates of sea ice cover, summer sea-surface temperature and salinity. The results show some regionalism in both trends, amplitude and overall variability. In general, changes of small amplitude are recorded in the Canadian Arctic whereas a slight cooling trend with an increasing sea ice cover characterizes the Northern Baffin Bay and Fram Strait areas from mid to late Holocene. In contrast, the Chukchi Sea records show large amplitude variations with millennial pacing making difficult to define any trend. The Chukchi Sea data indicate reduced sea ice and warmer conditions during the mid-Holocene, notably around 6.5 and 3.5 ka, and also point to important variations during the last millennium. The overall results suggest a higher variability thus sensitivity to climate change, in the Chukchi Sea area than in the Eastern parts of the Arctic and subarctic regions, which are largely influenced by northern branches of the North Atlantic Drift. The climate sensitivity of the Chukchi Sea area may be related to the proximity of the Pacific gateway. Strong linkages between sea-surface conditions, sea ice cover and export rate seem tightly linked there with large scale atmospheric synopses in the North Pacific and possibly the tropical Pacific. The apparent consistency of the Mount Logan record (Fisher et al., the Holocene 2008) with those of the Chukchi Sea (de Vernal et al., Quat. Sci. Rev. 2013) tends to support the hypothesis of a strong influence of North Pacific atmospheric teleconnections on sea-surface conditions in the Western Arctic.

  9. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Hurrell, J.W.

    1995-08-01

    Greenland ice-core data have revealed large decadal climate variations over the North Atlantic that can be related to a major source of low-frequency variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the past decade, the Oscillation has remained in one extreme phase during the winters, contributing significantly to the recent wintertime warmth across Europe and to cold conditions in the northwest Atlantic. An evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals coherent large-scale changes since 1980 that are linked to recent dry conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereas northern Europe and parts of Scandinavia have generally experienced wetter than normal conditions. 27 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Atlantic and Pacific Influences on Mesoamerican Climate Over the Past Millennium (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahle, D. W.; Burnette, D. J.; Villanueva, J.; Cleaveland, M. K.

    2010-12-01

    Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the first exactly dated millennium-long tree-ring chronology in central Mexico. The chronology is sensitive to both precipitation and temperature, and has been used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June from AD 771-2008 for a large sector of Mesoamerica (most of central and southern Mexico). Fourier-transform spectral analyses of the 1,238-year long reconstruction indicate strong concentrations of variance at frequencies associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO; representing over 14% of the total reconstructed variance between periods of 4.5 and 5.5 years), and at multi-decadal frequencies potentially associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; representing over 10% of the total variance between periods of 50 and 75 years). Weaker but statistically significant concentrations of variance are also detected with the Multi-Taper Method of spectral analysis at subdecadal timescales potentially linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; 7.5 years) and at timescales possibly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (~33 years). The reconstruction is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the ENSO cold tongue region from 1871-2008 (during the boreal cool season, DJFM), and this SST correlation strengthens in the 20th Century (1931-2008). Summer drought tends to develop over central Mexico during El Nino events, and the record warm events observed in 1983 and 1998 were associated with the two most extremely dry June PDSI conditions in the past 1,238 years (reconstructed ranks 1 and 2 for 1983 and 1998, respectively). The reconstruction is also significantly correlated with SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic, and is coherent with long instrument-based indices of the NAO at periods near 7.5 years, but only during the 20th century. The June PDSI reconstruction is coherent (P<0.05) with a 600

  11. Ekman transport and upwelling during Younger Dryas estimated from wind stress from GENESIS Climate model experiments with variable North Atlantic heat convergence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ágústsdóttir, Anna María; Alley, Richard B.; Pollard, David; Peterson, William H.

    Reconstructed climatic changes during the Younger Dryas interval are similar to, but somewhat larger and more wide-spread than, those expected based on the direct atmospheric effects of reduced North Atlantic oceanic heat transport. The paleoclimatic data show that North Atlantic cooling during the Younger Dryas was accompanied by stronger winds in many regions, suggesting that enhanced wind-driven ocean upwelling may have served as a positive feedback on the cooling. We test this hypothesis using the GENESIS atmospheric general circulation model, and find that Younger Dryas-age specified reduction in North Atlantic oceanic heat transport increases tropical Ekman divergence by ≈10% in regions and at times of prominent upwelling, sufficient to affect tropical temperatures.

  12. Different regional climatic drivers of Holocene large wildfires in boreal forests of northeastern America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remy, Cécile C.; Hély, Christelle; Blarquez, Olivier; Magnan, Gabriel; Bergeron, Yves; Lavoie, Martin; Ali, Adam A.

    2017-03-01

    Global warming could increase climatic instability and large wildfire activity in circumboreal regions, potentially impairing both ecosystem functioning and human health. However, links between large wildfire events and climatic and/or meteorological conditions are still poorly understood, partly because few studies have covered a wide range of past climate-fire interactions. We compared palaeofire and simulated climatic data over the last 7000 years to assess causes of large wildfire events in three coniferous boreal forest regions in north-eastern Canada. These regions span an east-west cline, from a hilly region influenced by the Atlantic Ocean currently dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea to a flatter continental region dominated by Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana. The largest wildfires occurred across the entire study zone between 3000 and 1000 cal. BP. In western and central continental regions these events were triggered by increases in both the fire-season length and summer/spring temperatures, while in the eastern region close to the ocean they were likely responses to hydrological (precipitation/evapotranspiration) variability. The impact of climatic drivers on fire size varied spatially across the study zone, confirming that regional climate dynamics could modulate effects of global climate change on wildfire regimes.

  13. Atmosphere Processes Dynamic and Mountain Region Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davitashvili, T.; Khvedelidze, Z.; Javakhishvili, Kh.; Sharikadze, I.

    As is known, on the whole regional climate is depended on the Sun's lope relation to the horizon and the characteristics of the Earth relief. In the mountain regions (Caucasian region) compound relief conduce additional turbulence craetion and flow round stream increasing or decreasing. All that bring climate change special feature in the mountain regions. Climate formation and change internal factors are enough interconnected. We had study reverse connection between temperature, moisture, cloudness radiation balance, the Sun's activity and its components on the basis of the data over last 140 years. For the central months of the seasons, there was comparison day-night, monthly an annual motion of the radiation and temperature, temperature and Sun's activity, with account of cloud and moisture. Reverse connection between climate elements was valuated with help of correlation coefficient (r>0.8), but period of its reiteration analysis of the calculated fields the available natural data and the semiempirical calculation it was shown, that in the Western Georgia temperature was not increased unlike the Eastern Georgia.

  14. Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

    2014-12-01

    The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using ERA-Interim re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally- refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

  15. Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

    2013-12-01

    The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using NCEP/NCAR re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally-refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

  16. Educational Policy and Planning. Canada V. Review of Educational Policies in Canada: Atlantic Region.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

    The fifth volume in a series of six on educational planning and policies in Canada, this review focuses on the Atlantic region--New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island. Sections of the document discuss the historical development of the Atlantic provinces' system of education; give an overview of education--its aims and…

  17. Extratropical Cyclones over Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: Present and Future Climates projected by RegCM4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reboita, Michelle; Rodrigues, Marcelo; da Rocha, Rosmeri

    2017-04-01

    This study shows some of the climatological features of the extratropical cyclones in present and future climate over Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SAO). The projections were carried out with Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) nested in HadGEM2-ES global model outputs and using representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the CMIP5. The simulations considered the South America domain suggested by CORDEX, horizontal grid spacing of 50 km, 18 sigma-pressure levels in the vertical. An objective tracking scheme based on cyclonic relative vorticity calculated using the wind at 925 hPa was used to identify the cyclones. All cyclones with relative vorticity lower than the -1.5 x 10-5 s-1 and with lifetime higher or equal 24 hours were included in the climatology. Considering the period from 1979 to 2098, RegCM4 and HadGEM2-ES project a negative trend in the frequency of the extratropical cyclones over SAO, with the biggest negative trend occuring in the latitudinal band between 40°S and 57.5°S. This result can be associated with the southward displacement of the baroclinic zone which contributes to the cyclones move to south leaving the region analyzed. The three subregions with largest cyclogenetic activity discussed in the literature (southeast coast of Brazil - RG1, coast of Uruguay and southern Brazil - RG2; east coast of Argentina - RG3) were better reproduced in RegCM4 than in HadGEM2-ES. Therefore, RegCM4 downscaling ads value in the HadGEM2-ES projections. The frequency of cyclones in present (1979-2005) and future climate (2070-2098) is higher in winter and lower in summer. Regarding the mean characteristics of the cyclones (life time, travel distance, velocity, initial relative vorticity and total average vorticity), both models successfully reproduced those obtained in the reanalysis (NCEP1, NCEP2, CFSR, ERA40 and ERA-Interim) and there are no significant differences in the future climate compared with the present.

  18. HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GLOBAL SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERNS, MID-ATLANTIC CLIMATE STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT FLUXES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere temperature in the past century strongly suggests that we are now in a period of rapid global climate change. Also, the climate in the mid-Atlantic is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which affects the frequency and seve...

  19. HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GLOBAL SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERNS, MID-ATLANTIC CLIMATE STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT FLUXES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere temperature in the past century strongly suggests that we are now in a period of rapid global climate change. Also, the climate in the mid-Atlantic is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which affects the frequency and seve...

  20. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  1. Warm water events in the southeast Atlantic and their impact on regional and large-scale atmospheric conditions in the CMIP5 model output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ott, Irena; Lutz, Karin; Rathmann, Joachim; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2013-04-01

    Two types of El Niño-like events are described in the South Atlantic: the Atlantic Niño in the equatorial Atlantic and the Benguela Niño off the Namibian and Angolan coast. These warm water events are known to be associated with rainfall anomalies at the West and Southwest African coastal region and harm marine ecosystems and fish populations. The two phenomena are handled separately so far, but the identification of warm water events in our study - via similar variabilities of sea surface temperatures (SST) - based on observed SST data (HadISST1.1) as well as global climate model output from CMIP5, involved the definition of an area mean index that includes both Niño types from the Atlantic region. A multi-model ensemble of the CMIP5 output is used to investigate the impact of Atlantic Niño events on regional atmospheric conditions. Based on the Atlantic SST index, composite analyses give information about anomalous precipitation, air pressure, humidity, evaporation, horizontal wind and vertical air motion patterns over the African continent and the South Atlantic. The Atlantic variability mode is similar to the Pacific El Niño system, but more irregular and less intense. However, recent studies show that the Atlantic influences the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean by the modification of the Walker and Hadley circulations and associated wind stress, thermocline and SST anomalies, further amplified by the Bjerknes positive feedback. As a result, an Atlantic Niño is followed by a La Niña-like phenomenon in the Pacific area with a lag of six months. In our study, the CMIP5 output is considered with respect to its ability of describing the complex connection between the Atlantic and Pacific variability modes. For that purpose, the inter-ocean teleconnection is studied with correlation analyses of the ensemble members of the CMIP5 output by means of the Atlantic index, the Southern Oscillation (SOI) and the Pacific El Niño indices (Ni

  2. Sensitivity of the North Atlantic Basin to cyclic climatic forcing during the early Cretaceous

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dean, W.E.; Arthur, M.A.

    1999-01-01

    Striking cyclic interbeds of laminated dark-olive to black marlstone and bioturbated white to light-gray limestone of Neocomian (Early Cretaceous) age have been recovered at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) and Ocean Drilling Project (ODP) sites in the North Atlantic. These Neocomian sequences are equivalent to the Maiolica Formation that outcrops in the Tethyan regions of the Mediterranean and to thick limestone sequences of the Vocontian Trough of France. This lithologic unit marks the widespread deposition of biogenic carbonate over much of the North Atlantic and Tethyan seafloor during a time of overall low sealevel and a deep carbonate compensation depth. The dark clay-rich interbeds typically are rich in organic carbon (OC) with up to 5.5% OC in sequences in the eastern North Atlantic. These eastern North Atlantic sequences off northwest Africa, contain more abundant and better preserved hydrogen-rich, algal organic matter (type II kerogen) relative to the western North Atlantic, probably in response to coastal upwelling induced by an eastern boundary current in the young North Atlantic Ocean. The more abundant algal organic matter in sequences in the eastern North Atlantic is also expressed in the isotopic composition of the carbon in that organic matter. In contrast, organic matter in Neocomian sequences in the western North Atlantic along the continental margin of North America has geochemical and optical characteristics of herbaceous, woody, hydrogen-poor, humic, type III kerogen. The inorganic geochemical characteristics of the dark clay-rich (80% CaCO3) interbeds in both the eastern and western basins of the North Atlantic suggest that they contain minor amounts of relatively unweathered eolian dust derived from northwest Africa during dry intervals.

  3. Simulation by CMIP5 models of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Zhe; Luo, Feifei; Li, Shuanglin; Gao, Yongqi; Furevik, Tore; Svendsen, Lea

    2016-12-01

    This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as a mode of internal variability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the "Pre-industrial" experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models' "Historical" simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their "Pre-industrial" simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.

  4. Ice-Sheet Dynamics and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the North Atlantic across the Middle Pleistocene Transition (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodell, D. A.; Nicholl, J.

    2013-12-01

    During the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the climate system evolved from a more linear response to insolation forcing in the '41-kyr world' to one that was decidedly non-linear in the '100-kyr world'. Smaller ice sheets in the early Pleistocene gave way to larger ice sheets in the late Pleistocene with an accompanying change in ice sheet dynamics. We studied Sites U1308 (49° 52.7'N, 24° 14.3'W; 3871 m) and U1304 (53° 3.4'N, 33° 31.8'W; 3024 m) in the North Atlantic to determine how ice sheet dynamics and millennial-scale climate variability evolved as glacial boundary conditions changed across the MPT. The frequency of ice-rafted detritus (IRD) in the North Atlantic was greater during glacial stages prior to 650 ka (MIS 16), reflecting more frequent crossing of an ice volume threshold when the climate system spent more time in the 'intermediate ice volume' window, resulting in persistent millennial scale variability. The rarity of Heinrich Events containing detrital carbonate and more frequent occurrence of IRD events prior to 650 ka may indicate the presence of 'low-slung, slippery ice sheets' that flowed more readily than their post-MPT counterparts (Bailey et al., 2010). Ice volume surpassed a critical threshold across the MPT that permitted ice sheets to survive boreal summer insolation maxima, thereby increasing ice volume and thickness, lengthening glacial cycles, and activating the dynamical processes responsible for Laurentide Ice Sheet instability in the region of Hudson Strait (i.e., Heinrich events). The excess ice volume during post-MPT glacial maxima provided a large, unstable reservoir of freshwater to be released to the North Atlantic during glacial terminations with the potential to perturb Atlantic Meridional Overtunring Circulation. We speculate that orbital- and millennial-scale variability co-evolved across the MPT and the interaction of processes on orbital and suborbital time scales gave rise to the changing patterns of glacial

  5. Regional Actions to Address Climate Change Impacts on Water

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's ten regions work to address climate change on a local level, implementing regionally important solutions and working with stakeholders on the ground. Many regional partners work closely with EPA to better implement climate solutions

  6. 600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieten, Rolf; Winter, Amos; Scholz, Denis; Black, David; Spoetl, Christoph; Winterhalder, Sophie; Koltai, Gabriella; Schroeder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Terzer, Stefan; Zanchettin, Davide; Mangini, Augusto

    2016-04-01

    A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) describing low-frequency sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic ocean. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most recent AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years (Svendsen et al., 2014) with a time lag of 10-20 years. The lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time

  7. Nature Run for the North Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Region: System Evaluation and Regional Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kourafalou, V.; Androulidakis, I.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Kang, H.; Mehari, M. F.; Atlas, R. M.

    2016-02-01

    A prototype ocean Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) system, first developed and data validated in the Gulf of Mexico, has been applied on the extended North Atlantic Ocean hurricane region. The main objectives of this study are: a) to contribute toward a fully relocatable ocean OSSE system by expanding the Gulf of Mexico OSSE to the North Atlantic Ocean; b) demonstrate and quantify improvements in hurricane forecasting when the ocean component of coupled hurricane models is advanced through targeted observations and assimilation. The system is based on the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and has been applied on a 1/250 Mercator mesh for the free-running Nature Run (NR) and on a 1/120 Mercator mesh for the data assimilative forecast model (FM). A "fraternal twin" system is employed, using two different realizations for NR and FM, each configured to produce substantially different physics and truncation errors. The NR has been evaluated using a variety of available observations, such as from AVISO, GDEM climatology and GHRSST observations, plus specific regional products (upper ocean profiles from air-borne instruments, surface velocity maps derived from the historical drifter data set and tropical cyclone heat potential maps derived from altimetry observations). The utility of the OSSE system to advance the knowledge of regional air-sea interaction processes related to hurricane activity is demonstrated in the Amazon region (salinity induced surface barrier layer) and the Gulf Stream region (hurricane impact on the Gulf Stream extension).

  8. Origin of millennial-scale climate signals in the subtropical North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billups, K.

    2011-12-01

    In this study, I am testing the hypothesis that millennial-scale climate signals in the northwestern subtropical Atlantic are linked to external driving factors such as the harmonics of precession. The test is based on the observation that the precession period is not stationary through time. For example, between 900 and 340 Ka the time interval between successive precession minima (or maxima) ranges primarily from 17 kyr to 21 kyr with discrete intervals lasting up to ~30 kyr (spectral power centered on the 23 kyr and 19 kyr periodicities). After 340 Ka, however, precession minima (or maxima) consistently occur at longer intervals, between 21 kyr and 25 kyr (spectral power focused at the 23 kyr period). If in proxy records millennial-scale variations reflect the harmonics of precession, I expect that the millennial-scale periodicity associated with the 19 kyr precession period (e.g., the 4.8 kyr peak) loses power as the primary orbital peak loses power at 340 Ka. First order tests of this idea can be made using published planktic foraminiferal δ18O records from ODP Site 1059 (Hagen and Keigwin, 2002; Oppo et al., 2001) in the northwestern subtropical Atlantic spanning Marine Isotope Stages 2-6 (~20-150 Ka) and Site 1058 spanning MIS 12-22 (~450-900 Ka, Weirauch et al., 2008). After filtering the records to remove the 100 kyr cycle, the older time slice contains both precession peaks (23 and 19 kyr). Significant (95% confidence interval) suborbital peaks occur at 12 kyr, 5.7 kyr and 5.0 kyr, which are close to the periodicities of the expected harmonics. The younger time slice shows only one precession peak centered at ~23 kyr and significant (95% confidence interval) sub-orbital peaks at 11.2 kyr, and 5 kyr. Only the 11.2 kyr peak agrees with the expected period of the second harmonic of the 23 kyr precession peak. We are currently generating high resolution planktic foraminiferal stable isotope records in this region to span MIS 7, which, together with data from

  9. Variability of oceanic productivity in the North Atlantic during abrupt climate changes (Heinrich Events)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nave, S.; Labeyrie, L.; Gherardi, J.; Cortijo, E.; Abrantes, F.; Kissel, C.

    2006-12-01

    Evidences of strong millennial-scale climate variability, especially marked during MIS3, have been reported worldwide in high-resolution records. These pronounced climate changes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, are characterized by sudden shifts in temperature, dust content and concentration of methane. Some of the longest Dansgaard-Oescher stadials are closely related to massive iceberg surges, the Heinrich Events (HE), recognized by anomalous concentrations in ice-rafted debris in six peculiar layers in the North Atlantic. Besides the well-documented changes in hydrology, these iceberg discharges had probably a major impact on the marine ecosystem, but data to constrain this variability is lacking. In order to further our understanding on productivity feedbacks to massive iceberg discharges and associated hydrologic adjustments, we have done a high-resolution diatom and organic carbon analysis focused on 7 sedimentary sequences between 40ºN and 65ºN, each of them representative of a North Atlantic region. This study was conducted over two abrupt climate events of the last glacial period, Heinrich Event 1 (H1) and Heinrich Event 4 (H4). Our results show that during H4 event, productivity decreased drastically at all latitudes. No major blooms of siliceous phytoplankton were recorded during iceberg discharges, and hence production resulting from high nutrient supply does not seem to have occurred during HE as suggested by previous studies (Sancetta, 1992). Instead, the severe productivity decrease during H4 could be due to the establishment of a strong halocline and the consequent slowdown of the thermohaline circulation (reducing the mixed layer and therefore preventing the nutrient supply from deeper waters to the upper layer). However, during H1, although hydrologically similar, productivity was apparently not affected in northern latitudes, showing a progressive increase during the deglaciation period. Hence, our results suggest that the orbital forcing

  10. Last Glacial - Holocene climate variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Wenshen; Esper, Oliver; Gersonde, Rainer

    2016-03-01

    The Southern Ocean plays a major role in the glacial/interglacial global carbon cycle. However, there is a substantial lack of information from its Antarctic Zone south of the Polar Front (PF) to understand key climate processes (e.g., sea ice variability, productivity changes, CO2 source region, shifts of the Southern Westerly Wind) active in this region during the glacial/interglacial transition, due to the limited high-resolution sediment records from this area. To close this gap, we investigated high resolution diatom records from a series of sediment cores from the Atlantic and Western Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean between the modern PF and the Winter Sea Ice (WSI) edge. Summer Sea Surface Temperature (SSST) and sea ice information spanning the past 30 thousand years were derived from diatom transfer functions and indicators, which augment comprehensive information on past surface ocean conditions and related ocean and atmospheric circulation, as well as opal deposition. These complementary lines of evidences also provide important environmental boundary conditions for climate simulations understanding the past climate development in the high latitudes Southern Ocean. Our reconstructions show that the Last Glacial (LG) SSSTs south of the modern PF are 1-3 °C colder than modern conditions, WSI expanded to the modern PF. Our data suggests effective carbon export in the Antarctic Zone during the LG. Deglacial two steps of warming support the bipolar seesaw mechanism. Antarctic Zone is an important source region for the CO2 deglacial increase. The warming was more suppressed towards south, due to continuous ice discharge from Antarctica. The SSSTs exceeded modern values during the early Holocene optimum, when WSI extent probably retreated south of its modern position. The southern boundary of maximum opal deposition zone may have shifted to south of 55°S in the Bouvet Island area at this time. The mid-late Holocene cooling with WSI re-expanding to the

  11. North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the last 2000 years: Patterns, Consequences and Potential Climatic Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Lane, P.; Hawkes, A.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Ranasinghe, P. N.; Toomey, M.; MacDonald, D.

    2011-12-01

    1300 years ago. A reconstruction of intense hurricane landfalls from the Gulf coast documents some similar patterns that likely point to large scale climate forcing; however, some significant differences are evident. For example, the Gulf frequently experienced intense hurricanes during the 13th and 14th centuries, but a subsequent decline in activity has persisted through the historic period. This antiphasing of intense hurricane activity between the East and Gulf coasts may point to basin-wide changes in hurricane tracks, but regional controls on the frequency of intense hurricanes (e.g., loop current penetration in the Gulf of Mexico) may also have driven spatial variability in Atlantic paleohurricane records.

  12. Environmental changes in the North Atlantic Region: SCANNET as a collaborative approach for documenting, understanding and predicting changes.

    PubMed

    Callaghan, Terry V; Johansson, M; Heal, O W; Saelthun, N R; Barkved, L J; Bayfield, N; Brandt, O; Brooker, R; Christiansen, H H; Forchhammer, M; Høye, T T; Humlum, O; Järvinen, A; Jonasson, C; Kohler, J; Magnusson, B; Meltofte, H; Mortensen, L; Neuvonen, S; Pearce, I; Rasch, M; Turner, L; Hasholt, B; Huhta, E; Leskinen, E; Nielsen, N; Siikamäki, P

    2004-11-01

    The lands surrounding the North Atlantic Region (the SCANNET Region) cover a wide range of climate regimes, physical environments and availability of natural resources. Except in the extreme North, they have supported human populations and various cultures since at least the end of the last ice age. However, the region is also important at a wider geographical scale in that it influences the global climate and supports animals that migrate between the Arctic and all the other continents of the world. Climate, environment and land use in the region are changing rapidly and projections suggest that global warming will be amplified there while increasing land use might dramatically reduce the remaining wilderness areas. Because much of the region is sparsely populated--if populated at all--observational records of past environmental changes and their impacts are both few and of short duration. However, it is becoming very important to record the changes that are now in progress, to understand the drivers of these changes, and to predict future consequences of the changes. To facilitate research into understanding impacts of global change on the lands of the North Atlantic Regions, and also to monitor changes in real time, an EU-funded network of research sites and infrastructures was formed in 2000: this was called SCANNET--SCANdinavian/North European NETwork of Terrestrial Field Bases. SCANNET currently consists of 9 core sites and 5 sites within local networks that together cover the broad range of current climate and predicted change in the region. Climate observations are well replicated across the network, whereas each site has tended to select particular environmental and ecological subjects for intensive observation. This provides diversity of both subject coverage and expertise. In this paper, we summarize the findings of SCANNET to-date and outline its information bases in order to increase awareness of data on environmental change in the North Atlantic

  13. Regional and inter-annual variability in Atlantic zooplankton en route to the Arctic Ocean: potential effects of multi-path Atlantic water advection through Fram Strait and the Barents Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwasniewski, Slawomir; Gluchowska, Marta; Trudnowska, Emilia; Ormanczyk, Mateusz; Walczowski, Waldemar; Beszczynska-Moeller, Agnieszka

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic is among the regions where the climate change effects on ecosystem will be the most rapid and consequential, with Arctic amplification recognized as an integral part of the process. Great part of the changes are forced by advection of warm waters from the North Atlantic and the expected modifications of Arctic marine ecosystem will be induced not only by changing environmental conditions but also as a result of introducing Atlantic biota. Thus, the knowledge of physical and biological heterogeneity of Atlantic inflow is requisite for understanding the effects of climate change on biological diversity and ecosystem functioning in the Arctic. The complex and variable two-branched structure of the Atlantic Water flow via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea most likely has a strong influence on the ocean biology in these regions, especially in the pelagic realm. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems which form essential links between primary producers and grazer/predator consumers, thus they are important for functioning of the biological carbon pump. Changes in zooplankton distribution and abundance may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning, with regulatory effects on climate. Based on data collected in summers of 2012-2014, within the scope of the Polish-Norwegian PAVE research project, we investigate zooplankton distribution, abundance and selected structural characteristics of communities, in relation to water mass properties in the Atlantic Water complex flow to the Arctic Ocean. The main questions addressed here are: what are the differences in zooplankton patterns between the Fram Strait and Barents Sea branches, and how does the inter-annual variability of Atlantic Water advection relate to changes in zooplankton? The results of the investigation are precondition for foreseeing changes in the pelagic realm in the Arctic Ocean and are necessary for constructing and tuning plankton components of ecosystem models.

  14. Climatic Impact of a Change in North Atlantic Deep Water Formation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, D.

    1984-01-01

    The response of the ocean to climate changes is one of the most uncertain questions regarding the impact of increasing CO2 on climate and society. North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation apparently depends on a complex confluence of different water masses originating in different areas, all of which will presumably be affected by changes in wind, evaporation, etc., as the atmosphere warms. To analyze from first principles what the effect will be on NADW formation is a task which requires an ocean modeling capability not yet available. As a substitute, past climates can be investigated to see if there is any evidence for alterations in NADW formation. In addition, the possible impact of such changes on climate can be explored. An estimate of NADW sensitivity (at least in the past) and of the climate consequences can be studied. The North Atlantic surface water temperatures can be reconstructed to indicate a substantial cooling between 11,000 and 10,000 years B.P. Were NADW formation to have ceased, it would have resulted in cooler surface waters; whether the reconstructed temperatures were due to this or some other effect cannot be determined at this time. Nevertheless, it was decided that it would be useful to see what the effect these colder temperatures would have had on the climate.

  15. Satellite-based climate information within the WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obregón, A.; Nitsche, H.; Körber, M.; Kreis, A.; Bissolli, P.; Friedrich, K.; Rösner, S.

    2014-05-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) around the world to create science-based climate information on a regional scale within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The paper introduces the satellite component of the WMO Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring (RCC-CM) for Europe and the Middle East. The RCC-CM product portfolio is based on essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), spanning the atmospheric (radiation, clouds, water vapour) and terrestrial domains (snow cover, soil moisture). In the first part, the input data sets are briefly described, which are provided by the EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) Satellite Application Facilities (SAF), in particular CM SAF, and by the ESA (European Space Agency) Climate Change Initiative (CCI). In the second part, the derived RCC-CM products are presented, which are divided into two groups: (i) operational monitoring products (e.g. monthly means and anomalies) based on near-real-time environmental data records (EDRs) and (ii) climate information records (e.g. climatologies, time series, trend maps) based on long-term thematic climate data records (TCDRs) with adequate stability, accuracy and homogeneity. The products are provided as maps, statistical plots and gridded data, which are made available through the RCC-CM website (www.dwd.de/rcc-cm).

  16. A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robson, Jon; Ortega, Pablo; Sutton, Rowan

    2016-07-01

    In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had important climate impacts such as increased hurricane numbers and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Since the mid-1990s direct and indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately 0.45 °C or 1.5 × 1022 J, reversing the previous warming trend. By analysing observations and a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that this cooling is consistent with a reduction in the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transport, linked to record low densities in the deep Labrador Sea. The low density in the deep Labrador Sea is primarily due to deep ocean warming since 1995, but a long-term freshening also played a role. The observed upper ocean cooling since 2005 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols directly drive Atlantic temperatures.

  17. A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robson, Jon; Ortega, Pablo; Sutton, Rowan

    2017-04-01

    In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had important climate impacts, such as increased hurricane numbers, and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, since the mid-1990s direct and indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately -0.45C or -1.5x10x22 J, reversing the previous warming trend. By analysing observations and a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that this cooling is consistent with a reduction in the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transport, linked to record low densities in the deep Labrador Sea. The low density in the deep Labrador Sea is primarily due to Deep Ocean warming since 1995, but a long-term freshening also played a role. Finally, the observed upper ocean cooling since 2005 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols directly drive multi-decadal variability in Atlantic temperatures.

  18. Western North Atlantic evidence for millennial-scale changes in ocean circulation and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keigwin, L. D.; Jones, G. A.

    1994-06-01

    Two late Quaternary series of high resolution percent carbonate data from western North Atlantic sediment drifts (Bermuda Rise and Bahama Outer Ridge) show millennial-scale oscillations superimposed on the familiar, longer-period oscillations of orbital origin. The dominant high-frequency oscillation in these records has a quasi-period of about 4000 years. These percent CaCO3 changes most likely result from the influence of climate change on the flux of terrigenous material from eastern Canada, the resuspension of continental margin sediment by deep eddy kinetic energy, and carbonate dissolution. Sediment is transported to the Bermuda Rise by deep recirculating gyres and to the Bahama Outer Ridge by the deep western boundary current system. Stable isotope results on foraminifera across several of these oscillations from interstadial climate conditions and from a glacial inception display variability similar to that of percent CaCO3. Oxygen isotope ratios of planktonic foraminifera suggest large variations in near-surface temperature and/or salinity, and carbon isotope ratios of benthic foraminifera indicate that there were significant oscillations in the flux of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). These data support models which couple surface ocean conditions in the North Atlantic, production of NADW, North Atlantic heat flux, and evidence for temperature oscillations in ice cores.

  19. Probabilistic Predictions of Regional Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, G. R.; Sexton, D. M.; Booth, B. B.; Brown, K.; Collins, M.; Murphy, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    We present a methodology for quantifying the leading sources of uncertainty in climate change projections that allows more robust prediction of probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change than is possible, for example, with the multimodel ensemble in the the CMIP3 archive used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Uncertainty in equilibrium climate response has been systematically explored by varying uncertain parameters in the atmosphere, sea-ice and surface components in a ensemble of simulations with the third version of the Hadley Centre model coupled to a slab ocean. The ensemble is used to emulate the response for one million parameter combinations, ensuring robust prediction of the prior distributions of equilibrium response for this model. Posterior PDFs are estimated using a weighting scheme that calculates the likelihood for each model version, based upon its ability to reproduce a large set of observed seasonal-mean climate variables. Information from the CMIP3 simulations is used to assess the effect of structural uncertainty, and this is included as an additional variance in the weighting. The posterior distributions of equilibrium response are shown to be relatively robust to variation in key assumptions of the method. A time-scaling technique that maps equilibrium to transient change is then used to predict PDFs for transient regional climate change for specified emissions scenarios. The scaling uses a simple climate model (SCM), with global climate feedbacks and local response sampled from the equilibrium response, and other SCM parameters tuned to the response of other AOGCM ensembles. Use of the SCM allows efficient sampling of uncertainties not fully sampled by expensive GCM simulation, including uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the strength of carbon-cycle feedbacks. Uncertainties arising from statistical components of the method, such as emulation or scaling, are

  20. The Role of the Agulhas System in Regional and Global Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Ruijter, Wilhelmus P. M.; Beal, Lisa; Biastoch, Arne; Zahn, Rainer

    2013-03-01

    The AGU Chapman Conference on the Agulhas system was the first held on the African continent. There was a feeling of excitement among participants about the great diversity of ongoing research related to the Agulhas Current system, including its role in global and regional climate, its possible influence on human origins in southern Africa, its link to the Madagascar phytoplankton bloom, and its influence on South Atlantic hurricane development (Catarina) through warming related to Agulhas leakage over the past decades.

  1. Climate-driven range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters.

    PubMed

    Wynn, Russell B; Josey, Simon A; Martin, Adrian P; Johns, David G; Yésou, Pierre

    2007-10-22

    Global climate change is driving rapid distribution shifts in marine ecosystems; these are well established for lower trophic levels, but are harder to quantify for migratory top predators. By analysing a 25-year sightings-based dataset, we found evidence for rapid northwards range expansion of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus in northeast Atlantic waters. A 0.6 degrees C sea surface temperature increase in the mid-1990s is interpreted as an underlying controlling factor, while simultaneous northward shifts of plankton and prey fish species suggests a strong bottom-up control. Our results have important conservation implications and provide new evidence for climate-driven regime shift in Atlantic ecosystems.

  2. Building Partnerships and Research Collaborations to Address the Impacts of Arctic Change: The North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polk, J.; North, L. A.; Strenecky, B.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Arctic warming influence the various atmospheric and oceanic patterns that drive Caribbean and mid-latitude climate events, including extreme events like drought, tornadoes, and flooding in Kentucky and the surrounding region. Recently, the establishment of the North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) project at Western Kentucky University (WKU) in partnership with the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland Arctic Cooperation Network (IACN), and Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) provides a foundation from which to engage students in applied research from the local to global levels and more clearly understand the many tenets of climate change impacts in the Arctic within both a global and local community context. The NAC3 project encompasses many facets, including joint international courses, student internships, economic development, service learning, and applied research. In its first phase, the project has generated myriad outcomes and opportunities for bridging STEM disciplines with other fields to holistically and collaboratively address specific human-environmental issues falling under the broad umbrella of climate change. WKU and UNAK students desire interaction and exposure to other cultures and regions that are threatened by climate change and Iceland presents a unique opportunity to study influences such as oceanic processes, island economies, sustainable harvest of fisheries, and Arctic influences on climate change. The project aims to develop a model to bring partners together to conduct applied research on the complex subject of global environmental change, particularly in the Arctic, while simultaneously focusing on changing how we learn, develop community, and engage internationally to understand the impacts and find solutions.

  3. Abrupt climate changes and the effects of North Atlantic deepwater formation: Results from the GENESIS global climate model and comparison with data from the Younger Dryas event and the event at 8200 years bp and the present

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustsdottir, Anna Maria

    1998-10-01

    Abrupt changes in climate towards glacial conditions have occurred several times during the last tens of thousands of years. A reduction in ocean heat transport to the high-latitude North Atlantic, associated with reduction, shutdown, or southward shift in formation of North Atlantic Deepwater, is hypothesized to have caused or amplified abrupt cooling events. The model-data comparisons reported here provide strong support for this hypothesis for the Younger Dryas interval and the cold event about 8200 years ago, and show likely changes were such an oceanic change to occur in the near future. Different levels of North Atlantic ocean heat transport were specified in age-appropriate simulations using the GENESIS GCM climate model. For the Younger Dryas, simulated reduction in GENESIS ocean heat transport (in versions 1.02A and 2.0) from modern levels produces climate-anomaly patterns, including many seasonal changes, that closely match observations, however, observed changes far from the North Atlantic are somewhat larger than modeled. Both model and data indicate stronger winds during cold times. Modeled cold-time winds produce about 10% more tropical-ocean Ekman divergence in regions and at times of prominent upwelling. The cooling associated with this, but not calculated for the mixed- layer GENESIS model ocean, probably is important in model-data differences. Because of the success of GENESIS in simulating Younger Dryas changes around the North Atlantic but underestimating those beyond this region, the large changes simulated for a modern reduction of North Atlantic ocean heat transport likely march or underestimate those that would occur if such a change occurred in the near future. Reduction in ocean heat transport for 8200 years ago form modern levels produces an anomaly pattern somewhat like observations, but reduction form heat transport higher than modern produces a much better match. Together with other evidence, this suggests that this cold climate event

  4. Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    The relationship between the characteristics of wine and its geographic origin is frequently used to explain the hierarchy of high-quality wines. Port wine is produced from grapes grown in selected areas of the Douro valley, in Portugal, the so-called Região Demarcada do Douro, the first wine-producing region of the world (dating from 1758). The Douro region presents distinctive climatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Moreover Portugal possesses a large array of native varietals, producing an abundant diversity of different wines. The most protected wines, produced only with some authorised grape varietals in the demarcated regions, are labelled D.O.C. (Denominação de Origem Controlada, similar to the French Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée (AOC)) which secures a superior wine quality. Recent warming trends in Portugal are associated with the significant increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves, and the increase in the frequency of hot days and tropical nights, especially in spring and summer, together with a significant decrease in the frequency of cold waves and frost days (Santo et al., 2014). Moreover a predominantly negative tendency in precipitation indices was also found (de Lima et al., 2014). These trends and associated changes in temperature and precipitation regimes may exert strong influences on agriculture systems. In this work we have performed an analysis of the distinct behaviour of several meteorological fields in vintage versus non-vintage years for Port Wine on one hand and Alentejo and Dão/Bairrada DOC regions on the other hand, during the period spanning from 1964-1995. The relative importance of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and frost days is assessed for each individual month of the vegetative cycle and their importance to the wine quality is evaluated. Furthermore, composites of 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure fields over the Euro Atlantic region are also compared for years

  5. Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Vita, P.; Allocca, V.; Manna, F.; Fabbrocino, S.

    2012-05-01

    Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation. In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period. Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis. The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index. Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of different European countries and Mediterranean areas, the results

  6. Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.

    2011-01-01

    We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

  7. Regional climate downscaling: What's the point?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Wilby, Robert L.

    2012-01-01

    Dynamical and statistical downscaling of multidecadal global climate models provides finer spatial resolution information for climate impact assessments [Wilby and Fowler, 2010]. Increasingly, some scientists are using the language of "prediction" with respect to future regional climate change and impacts [e.g., Hurrell et al., 2009; Shapiro et al., 2010], yet others note serious reservations about the capability of downscaling to provide detailed, accurate predictions [see Kerr, 2011]. Dynamic downscaling is based on regional climate models (usually just the atmospheric part) that have finer horizontal grid resolution of surface features such as terrain [Castro et al., 2005]. Statistical downscaling uses transfer functions (e.g., regression relationships) representing observed relationships between larger-scale atmospheric variables and local quantities such as daily precipitation and/or temperature [Wilby and Fowler, 2010]. These approaches have been successful in improving the skill of numerical weather prediction. Statistical downscaling can also be used as the benchmark (the control) against which dynamic downscaling skill is judged [Landsea and Knaff, 2000

  8. Chapter 3. Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua.

    PubMed

    Mieszkowska, Nova; Genner, Martin J; Hawkins, Stephen J; Sims, David W

    2009-01-01

    During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, we describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging. Taken together, this evidence demonstrates that knowledge of spatial population ecology is critical for evaluating the effects of climate change and commercial harvesting. To explore the possible effects of climate change on cod, we first describe thermal influences on individual physiology, growth, activity and maturation. We then evaluate evidence that temperature has influenced population-level processes including direct effects on recruitment through enhanced growth and activity, and indirect effects through changes to larval food resources. Although thermal regimes clearly define the biogeographic range of the species, and strongly influence many aspects of cod biology, the evidence that population declines across the North Atlantic are strongly linked to fishing activity is now overwhelming. Although there is considerable concern about low spawning stock biomasses, high levels of fishing activity continues in many areas. Even with reduced fishing effort, the potential for recovery from low abundance may be compromised by unfavourable climate and Allee effects. Current stock assessment and management approaches are reviewed, alongside newly advocated methods for monitoring stock status and recovery. However, it remains uncertain whether the rebuilding of cod to historic population sizes and demographic structures will be possible in a warmer North Atlantic.

  9. A STRATEGY FOR INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION OF RIPARIAN BUFFERS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increased sediments, nutrients, and other contaminants in the Mid-Atlantic region contribute to environmental problems ranging from stream degradation to possibly Pfiesteria attacks in Chesapeake Bay. Restoring riparian areas - the filters between terrestrial watersheds and aquat...

  10. A STRATEGY FOR INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION OF RIPARIAN BUFFERS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increased sediments, nutrients, and other contaminants in the Mid-Atlantic region contribute to environmental problems ranging from stream degradation to possibly Pfiesteria attacks in Chesapeake Bay. Restoring riparian areas - the filters between terrestrial watersheds and aquat...

  11. Climate-scale sea surface height variability over the Northwest Atlantic slope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Guoqi; Chen, Nancy; Yen Kuo, Chun; Shum, Ck; Ma, Zhimin

    2016-04-01

    The Northwest Atlantic continental slope features strong interactions among the western boundary currents of the subpolar and subtropical gyres, and thus the sea level variability over the slope may have important implications for the large-scale ocean circulation. In this study, temporal and spatial sea level variability in the Northwest Atlantic continental slope has been investigated based on a merged satellite altimetry dataset and a monthly temperature and salinity dataset. The altimetric results are compared with steric height anomalies calculated from the temperature and salinity dataset. The study shows significant interannual and decadal sea level variability and secular change, with prominent regional differences and seemingly varying linkages to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variability in the North Atlantic. The interannual sea level variability in the western Labrador Sea is negatively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation primarily via the wintertime deep convection; whereas that over the Laurentian Fan is positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The thermosteric height anomalies are negatively (positively) correlated with the winter NAO index in the Labrador Sea (Laurentian Fan); while the halosteric height anomalies show opposite. The along-slope differences in the interannual and decadal variations and the secular trend of the sea surface height anomalies is compatible with an important interior pathway of the Labrador Sea Intermediate Water toward the central North Atlantic Basin reported in literature.

  12. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Producing Regional Climate Change Projections for Climate Impacts Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, R. W.; Mearns, L.; Anderson, C.; Bader, D.; Buonomo, E.; Caya, D.; Duffy, P.; Elguindi, N.; Giorgi, F.; Gutowski, W.; Held, I.; Nunes, A.; Jones, R.; Laprise, R.; Leung, L. R.; Middleton, D.; Moufouma-Okia, W.; Nychka, D.; Qian, Y.; Roads, J.; Sain, S.; Snyder, M.; Sloan, L.; Takle, E.

    2006-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is constructing projections of regional climate change over the coterminous United States and Canada in order to provide climate change information at decision relevant scales. A major goal of NARCCAP is to estimate uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate by using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). NARCCAP is using six nested regional climate models at 50 km resolution to dynamically downscale realizations of current climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2041-2070, following the A2 SRES emission scenario) from four AOGCMs. Global time slice simulations, also at 50 km resolution, will be performed using the GFDL AM2.1 and NCAR CAM3 atmospheric models forced by the AOGCM sea surface temperatures and will be compared with results of the regional models. Results from this multiple-RCM, multiple-AOGCM suite will be statistically analyzed to investigate the cascade of uncertainty as one type of model draws information from another. All output will be made available to the climate analysis and climate impacts assessment communities through an archiving and data distribution plan. The climate impacts community will have these data at unprecedented spatial and temporal (hourly to six-hourly) resolution to support decision-relevant evaluations for public policy. As part of our evaluation of uncertainties, simulations are presently being concluded that nest the participating RCMs within reanalyses of observations. These simulations can be viewed as nesting the RCMs within a GCM that is nearly perfect (constrained by available observations), allowing us to separate errors attributable to the RCMs from those attributable to the driving AOGCMs. Results to date indicate that skill is greater in winter than in summer, and greater for temperature than for precipitation. Temperature and precipitation errors

  13. Structure and impact of atmospheric blocking over the Euro-Atlantic region in present-day and future simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masato, G.; Woollings, T.; Hoskins, B. J.

    2014-02-01

    The spatial structure of winter atmospheric blocking and its impact on the surface temperatures are analyzed for the current climate and a strong CO2 emission scenario over the Euro-Atlantic sector, using four different global circulation models. The models perform very well in describing the spatial pattern of meteorological fields associated with blocking, despite the well-known negative bias associated with the European blocking frequency. While a slight increase in the frequency of the Atlantic blocking is observed for the future climate, the European blocking frequency remains unchanged, with a net eastward shift apparent for the European warm blocking events. Under enhanced CO2 forcing, Atlantic blocking is associated with reduced amplitudes for positive and negative anomalies both in the geopotential height at 500 hPa and in the surface temperature, in particular for the latter. The anomalies associated with the occurrence of the two types of European blocking (those dominated by warm and cold air masses) exhibit changed shapes and locations in both the geopotential height and surface temperature fields, with only the cold cases leading to severe cold weather conditions over Europe and most of the polar region. Moreover, the eastward shift and amplification of the anticyclone associated with the warm events in the future is found to generate strong positive surface temperature anomalies over the entire polar cap. As a whole, the results show a marked increase in the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to blocking in the future.

  14. Tropical Atlantic Impacts on the Decadal Climate Variability of the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. In particular, several recent works indicate that the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) may contribute to the climate variability over the equatorial Pacific. Inspired by these studies, our work aims at investigating the impact of the tropical Atlantic on the entire tropical climate system, and uncovering the physical dynamics under these tropical teleconnections. We first performed a 'pacemaker' simulation by restoring the satellite era tropical Atlantic SST changes in a fully coupled model - the CESM1. Results reveal that the Atlantic warming heats the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific, enhances the Walker circulation and drives the subsurface Pacific to a La Niña mode, contributing to 60-70% of the above tropical changes in the past 30 years. The same pan-tropical teleconnections have been validated by the statistics of observations and 106 CMIP5 control simulations. We then used a hierarchy of atmospheric and oceanic models with different complexities, to single out the roles of atmospheric dynamics, atmosphere-ocean fluxes, and oceanic dynamics in these teleconnections. With these simulations we established a two-step mechanism as shown in the schematic figure: 1) Atlantic warming generates an atmospheric deep convection and induces easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves, and westerly wind anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution. This circulation changes warms the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific with the wind-evaporation-SST effect, forming a temperature gradient over the Indo-Pacific basins. 2) The temperature gradient further generates a secondary atmospheric deep convection, which reinforces the easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and enhances the Walker circulation, triggering the Pacific to a La Ni

  15. Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhu, Jiang

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection. PMID:28070560

  16. Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gu, Guojun

    2005-01-01

    Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

  17. Moving Northward? First Record of Spilocuma Watlingi (Crustacea: Cumacea: Bodotriidae) in Mid-Atlantic Region, Maryland Coastal Bays, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales-Nunez, A. G.; Chigbu, P.

    2016-02-01

    Spilocuma watlingi is a species of Cumacea that appears to be confined to protected beaches inside of barrier islands. It ranges in distribution from the northern Gulf of Mexico (Alabama) to the South Atlantic Bight (Georgia and North Carolina) on the east coast of the United States. A benthic invertebrate sample collected from Sinepuxent Bay (Maryland) in August 2014, contained one ovigerous female of Spilocuma watlingi which is being reported for the first time in Maryland Coastal Bays (MCBs) and the Mid-Atlantic region. The occurrence of S. watlingi in the MCBs represents a major range extension for the species. The likely vectors for its introduction in the region include ship ballast water and hull fouling. It is also possible that because of climate change S. watlingi has begun to invade temperate waters, or the species was overlooked during previous studies. If so, this underscores the need for more studies on the diversity and abundance of benthic marine invertebrates in the Mid-Atlantic region.

  18. Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning.

    PubMed

    Villela, D M; Mattos, E A de; Pinto, A S; Vieira, S A; Martinelli, L A

    2012-08-01

    The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km², today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions.

  19. Detection of North Atlantic Polar Lows in Climate Mode Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahn, M.; von Storch, H.; Bakan, S.

    2007-12-01

    Polar lows are not properly resolved in global re-analyses. Atmospheric limited area models (LAMs), which post- process re-analysis data, may be an appropriate tool for describing the year-to-year variability and decadal trends in the formation of Polar Lows. The merits and potential of this approach are examined in case studies of reproducing polar low occurrences with a LAM. A series of three week long ensemble simulations of weather situations over the NE Atlantic with a RCM/LAM (CLM) was conducted and its capability to reproduce polar lows was investigated. To keep the influence of the initial field low, the simulations were begun approximately two weeks prior to the polar low formation. It is shown that polar lows can be reproduced with the LAM. When "spectral nudging" is applied a polar low develops in all ensemble members and the simulations are very insensitive to the initial conditions. However there are differences in detail compared to observational data, e.g extent of pressure decline and polar low's location. In a scond step towards our goal of determining trends in changing frequencies and characteristics, an algorithm for automatical detection polar lows has been designed and tested. This algorithm was applied to the output fields of a long-term simulation and first results are shown.

  20. Objective calibration of regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellprat, O.; Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; SchäR, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate models are subject to high parametric uncertainty induced by poorly confined model parameters of parameterized physical processes. Uncertain model parameters are typically calibrated in order to increase the agreement of the model with available observations. The common practice is to adjust uncertain model parameters manually, often referred to as expert tuning, which lacks objectivity and transparency in the use of observations. These shortcomings often haze model inter-comparisons and hinder the implementation of new model parameterizations. Methods which would allow to systematically calibrate model parameters are unfortunately often not applicable to state-of-the-art climate models, due to computational constraints facing the high dimensionality and non-linearity of the problem. Here we present an approach to objectively calibrate a regional climate model, using reanalysis driven simulations and building upon a quadratic metamodel presented by Neelin et al. (2010) that serves as a computationally cheap surrogate of the model. Five model parameters originating from different parameterizations are selected for the optimization according to their influence on the model performance. The metamodel accurately estimates spatial averages of 2 m temperature, precipitation and total cloud cover, with an uncertainty of similar magnitude as the internal variability of the regional climate model. The non-linearities of the parameter perturbations are well captured, such that only a limited number of 20-50 simulations are needed to estimate optimal parameter settings. Parameter interactions are small, which allows to further reduce the number of simulations. In comparison to an ensemble of the same model which has undergone expert tuning, the calibration yields similar optimal model configurations, but leading to an additional reduction of the model error. The performance range captured is much wider than sampled with the expert-tuned ensemble and the presented

  1. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  2. The Plio-Pleistocene development of Atlantic deep-water circulation and its influence on climate trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, David B.; Jung, Simon J. A.; Kroon, Dick

    2015-09-01

    Using benthic stable isotope records from 10 sites in the Atlantic Ocean, including two new records from Walvis Ridge in the Southeast Atlantic (Sites 1264 and 1267), we review changes in Atlantic deep-water circulation in the context of Plio-Pleistocene climate. Overall, we find non-linear responses of Atlantic deep-water circulation to a cooling climate, with differently evolving glacial and interglacial states. Our main conclusion is that peak North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production was reached between ˜2.0 and 1.5 Ma, most prominently seen by a maximum in ventilated (high δ13C) conditions in the mid-depth Southeast Atlantic (Site 1264). We infer that a major source of NADW at this time was the export of dense overflow water from the Nordic Seas into the abyssal East Atlantic. Sea surface temperature records from the North and South Atlantic support this notion and indicate that the peak NADW production between ˜2.0 and 1.5 Ma was compensated by a stronger warm surface-water return flow (i.e. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was enhanced), causing long-term (>105 year) heat piracy from the South to the North Atlantic. In the wider picture of Plio-Pleistocene climate evolution, we find that a long-term enhancement in the average state of AMOC (˜2.4-1.3 Ma) coincides with the "41-kyr world". Hence, we speculate that the transitory negative feedback response of enhanced AMOC to a cooling climate supplied heat to key areas of ice-sheet growth, acting to limit their size and maintain the "41-kyr world". Once a threshold in global cooling was reached, the strength of AMOC lessened, providing a positive feedback for the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition and the associated build-up of northern hemisphere ice-sheets.

  3. Influence of the North Atlantic dipole on climate changes over Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, I. V.

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, some hydrophysical and meteorological characteristics of negative (1948-1976 and 1999-2015) and positive (1977-1998) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in the North Atlantic and Eurasia are constructed and investigated. Specifically, the near-surface temperature, sea-level atmospheric pressure, wind speed, heat content of the upper 700 m ocean layer, water temperature and salinity at various depths, the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere are analyzed. The fields obtained are in good agreement and complement each other. This gives important information about the hydrometeorological conditions in the region under study. Analysis of these data has shown that in the upper 1000 m North Atlantic layer there is a thermal dipole which can be interpreted as an oceanic analog of the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An index of the North Atlantic Dipole (NAD) as the difference between the mean heat contents in the upper 700 m oceanic layer between the regions (50°-70° N; 60°-10° W) and (20°-40° N; 80°-30° W) is proposed. A possible physical mechanism of the internal oscillations with a quasi-60-year period in the North Atlantics- Eurasia system of ocean-atmosphere interactions is discussed.

  4. Using WRF for Regional Climate Modeling: An Emphasis on the Southeast U.S. for Future Air Quality

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation describes preliminary analysis of a five-member regional climate ensemble (developed by AMAD and its contractors, including UNC) to determine if there is any consensus on projected changes to the placement of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH, or Bermuda...

  5. Using WRF for Regional Climate Modeling: An Emphasis on the Southeast U.S. for Future Air Quality

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation describes preliminary analysis of a five-member regional climate ensemble (developed by AMAD and its contractors, including UNC) to determine if there is any consensus on projected changes to the placement of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH, or Bermuda...

  6. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This

  7. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Treesearch

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  8. Regional Climate Change Projections over Northeast Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassain Sales, Domingo; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; Cavalcante, Arnóbio M. B.; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco; Martins de Araújo Junior, Luiz; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro

    2013-04-01

    Climate change and climate change impact studies often require a spatial resolution beyond the horizontal grid spacing of the data generated by Global Climate Models (GCMs). Dynamical Downscaling is one of techniques that allow regionalization of information from such models, in which the GCM data drive a Regional Climate Model (RCM) that in turn, at least theoretically, presents the climatological fields in more detail and can add value to climatic analysis. In this context, CORDEX is a coordinated experiment that standardizes dynamical downscaling simulations over continental regions, to provide a contribution from the regional climate modeling community to the IPCC/AR5 and beyond. Because computer resources are limited, a modeling group involved in CORDEX typically chooses one or few of the suggested domains, and use one or a few CMIP5 GCM data to drive its regional model. At the State University of Ceará (UECE), in Brazil, we used RAMS6.0 (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Version 6.0), driven by HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Enviroment Model Version 2 - Earth System) data, over a extended CORDEX Central America domain (longitude: 124.5W to 24.5W, latitude: 33.5N to 17.5S). This work presents the evaluation of climatological features of precipitation and temperature over Northeast Brazil region (longitude: 47W to 34.5W, latitude: 2.5S to 17.5S) for 20 years of the historical period (1985-2005) evaluating short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079-2099) changes, under the RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 scenarios. For the historical period, the results were compared against several observed data sets, in order to evaluate the performance of RAMS6.0 nested to HadGEM2-ES. The correlation between the simulated and observed annual cycle of precipitation is high (above 0.93). RAMS6.0 shows a wet bias of 0.706 mm/day that is larger than HadGEM2-ES bias (0.197 mm/day), however the regional model corrects the month of maximum precipitation (the global model

  9. Addressing Challenges of regional climate modeling over the Greater Horn of Africa: Africa Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (AFRMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anyah, R.

    2009-04-01

    The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) has distinct climate characteristics compared to the rest of the continent. The GHA is replete with complex terrain comprising of some of the known tropical glacier covered high mountains of Kilimanjaro, Kenya and Rwenzori as well as the Great Rift Valley System (GRVS). The region also has several freshwater lakes that include Lake Victoria (second largest freshwater lake), and Lake Tanganyika (the second largest deepest freshwater lake). As a whole the complex GHA terrain presents an enabling environment where local and large scale climate systems frequently interact to create highly variable climate in both space and time. At the same time, inter-annual variability of the GHA climate is linked to perturbations in the global SSTs, especially over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, and to some extent, the Atlantic Ocean. These three global oceans, all at the same time or each at different times, intriguingly influence the interannual variability of the GHA climate. Interactions and feedbacks among these multiple climate drivers over the region present challenges in quantitative understanding of regional climate variability and changes based on typical empirical techniques. Therefore, there is need to also employ physically-based, regional climate models (RCMs) that can offer scope and capability to unveil cause-effect relationships between regional climate variability and individual or combination of processes. However, representation of the multiple sources of forcing to the GHA climate also poses a great challenge to RCMs as well. This presentation will give an overview of the AFRMIP project, whose primary objective is to undertake a systematic and comprehensive audit of the deficiencies and uncertainties in regional model simulations of the GHA climate. The project specifically seeks to build a coalition of a regional climate modeling community to address the following issues; (i) representation of the GHA

  10. A framework for regional modeling of past climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sloan, L. C.

    2006-09-01

    The methods of reconstructing ancient climate information from the rock record are summarized, and the climate forcing factors that have been active at global and regional scales through Earth history are reviewed. In this context, the challenges and approaches to modeling past climates by using a regional climate model are discussed. A significant challenge to such modeling efforts arises if the time period of interest occurred prior to the past ˜3 5 million years, at which point land sea distributions and topography markedly different from present must be specified at the spatial resolution required by regional climate models. Creating these boundary conditions requires a high degree of geologic knowledge, and also depends greatly upon the global climate model driving conditions. Despite this and other challenges, regional climate models represent an important and unique tool for paleoclimate investigations. Application of regional climate models to paleoclimate studies may provide another way to assess the overall performance of regional climate models.

  11. Ocean circulation in the southern Benguela region from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene: tracking Agulhas leakage into the SE Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrick, Benjamin; McClymont, Erin; Felder, Sojna; Leng, Melanie

    2013-04-01

    The transition from the warmth of the middle Pliocene to the large amplitude, 100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene provides a way to understand the forcings and impacts of regional and global climate change. Here, we investigate changes in ocean circulation over the period from 3.5 Ma to present using a marine sediment core, ODP Site 1087 (31o28'S, 15o19'E, 1374m water depth). ODP 1087 is located in the South-east Atlantic Ocean, outside the Benguela upwelling region. Its location allows investigation of the history of the heat and salt transfer to the Atlantic Ocean from the Indian Ocean ("Agulhas leakage"), which plays an important part in the global thermohaline circulation. It is not known how this transfer reacted to generally warmer global temperatures during the mid-Pliocene, nor to the transition to a globally cooler climate in the early Pleistocene. Our approach is to apply several organic geochemistry proxies and foraminiferal analyses to reconstruct the history of ODP 1087. These include the U37K' index to reconstruct sea surface temperatures, pigment analysis for understanding productivity changes, and foraminifera assemblage analysis to detect the presence of different water masses at the site. We have identified changes in SSTs and biological productivity that we argue to reflect shifts in the position of the Benguela upwelling cells, and a changing influence of Agulhas leakage. Our new data reveal a different organization in the Southeast Atlantic. It shows that during the Pliocene ODP 1087 was dominated by Benguela upwelling which had shifted south. We find no evidence for Agulhas leakage during the mid Pliocene, which could mean that Agulhas Leakage was severely reduced during the mid Pliocene. The implications of these results for understanding Plio-Pleistocene climate changes will be explored here.

  12. Observations of Saharan dust in the Caribbean and Implications for Regional Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, L.; Einaudi, Franco

    2001-01-01

    Massive quantities of dust aerosol, originating at source locations in the Saharan desert are frequently transported westward across the Atlantic. Saharan dust has been frequently identified at ground-based stations in South America, on Barbados, in Florida and in Texas. Recently, in July of 2000, the Puerto Rican Dust Experiment (PRiDE), consisting of researchers from the U.S. Navy, NASA, the University of Miami and the University of Puerto Rico joined together to study this important phenomenon. Numerical forecast models tracked each dust event as the dust left the African continent and transversed the Atlantic. Ground-based, ship-based, airborne and satellite sensors were used to characterize the physical and radiative properties of the dust aerosol. The dust plays an important role in terms of radiative forcing of regional climate. Satellite sensors such as NASA's EOS-MODIS aboard the Terra satellite will provide important continuing information on the dust aerosol and its climatic effects.

  13. Observations of Saharan dust in the Caribbean and Implications for Regional Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, L.; Einaudi, Franco

    2001-01-01

    Massive quantities of dust aerosol, originating at source locations in the Saharan desert are frequently transported westward across the Atlantic. Saharan dust has been frequently identified at ground-based stations in South America, on Barbados, in Florida and in Texas. Recently, in July of 2000, the Puerto Rican Dust Experiment (PRiDE), consisting of researchers from the U.S. Navy, NASA, the University of Miami and the University of Puerto Rico joined together to study this important phenomenon. Numerical forecast models tracked each dust event as the dust left the African continent and transversed the Atlantic. Ground-based, ship-based, airborne and satellite sensors were used to characterize the physical and radiative properties of the dust aerosol. The dust plays an important role in terms of radiative forcing of regional climate. Satellite sensors such as NASA's EOS-MODIS aboard the Terra satellite will provide important continuing information on the dust aerosol and its climatic effects.

  14. Aerosol-cloud interactions in the South-East Atlantic: knowledge gaps, planned observations to address them, and implications for global climate change modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Redemann, Jens; Wood, Robert; Zuidema, Paquita; Haywood, James; Luna, Bernadette; Abel, Steven

    2015-04-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (CLoud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded

  15. Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Knowledge Gaps, Planned Observations to Address Them, and Implications for Global Climate Change Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Redemann, Jens; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.; Haywood, J.; Luna, B.; Abel, S.

    2015-01-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded

  16. Decadal-Scale Tropical North Atlantic Climate Variability Recorded in Slow Growing Cape Verde Corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moses, C. S.; Swart, P. K.; Dodge, R. E.; Helmle, K. P.; Thorrold, S.

    2002-12-01

    The decadal to century scale climate variability of the tropical North Atlantic has major implications for both neighboring coastal and inland areas. Changes in patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and SST anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical North Atlantic are known to affect rainfall in Florida, South America, and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the number of major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic. Because of the significance of these connections, it is important to further increase our predictive capacity for the recognition of trends and cycles in tropical North Atlantic SST and SSTA. Located at 15° N latitude off the west coast of sub-Saharan Africa, the Cape Verde Islands are an ideal geographic location to search for records of the Tropical North Atlantic Index (TNA). Such patterns are present in proxy indicators of climate (O, C, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) recorded in the skeletons of slow growing corals, such as Siderastrea radians, found in Cape Verde (growth rate = 1-2 mm/yr). These corals represent an archive for SST and SSTA records that exceed the instrumental period of the eastern tropical North Atlantic. We cored corals from several different locations within the Cape Verde archipelago and analyzed them for stable isotopes (δ13C and δ18O) and minor elements (Sr, Mg, and Ba). The δ18O signal present in these corals shows a distinct relationship to the TNA over the better part of the last 100 years. In addition, the δ18O record in several of these corals also records the onset of the latest Sahel (11°-18° N in Africa) drought which began in 1970. The Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca records of these corals indicate a slight warming of the waters around Cape Verde during the last 100 years, as well as accurately recording the El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98. The correlations present between the records in these corals and the known instrumental record for the eastern tropical North Atlantic suggests that the fluctuations recorded in the proxy indicators may be

  17. Sensitivity of the regional climate in the Middle East and North Africa to volcanic perturbations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming

    2017-08-01

    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon, and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

  18. A Holocene temperature reconstruction from northern New Zealand: a test of North Atlantic Holocene climate patterns as a global template

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Holocene climate variability has been well defined in the North Atlantic (Walker et al., 2012), but the global extent of this climate change stratigraphy is debatable. If the North Atlantic serves as a global template for Holocene climate, then New Zealand (NZ) is ideally positioned to test this assertion, as it is distal from the northern drivers. Additionally, it is one of the few landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere that is influenced by both sub-tropical and extra-tropical climatic regimes, which may be more important controls in the southern mid-latitudes. Although much work has been done to characterise the Holocene in NZ using pollen, most of these records lack the resolution or sensitivity to determine whether abrupt or short-lived events occurred. The NZ-INTIMATE climate event stratigraphy lacks a type section for the Holocene (Alloway et al., 2007). Records from northern NZ typically show little change, other than a possible early Holocene warming. Here, we present a combined pollen and chironomid temperature reconstruction from Lake Pupuke (northern NZ), the first of its kind in NZ that covers the entire Holocene. By comparing mean annual temperatures reconstructed from fossil pollen and mean summer temperatures inferred from chironomid remains, we can assess changes in seasonality. Mean summer temperature was reconstructed from the chironomid record using a weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) model (n comp = 2, r2booth = 0.77, RMSEP = 1.4°C) developed from an expanded version of Dieffenbacher-Krall et al. (2007)'s chironomid training set. Preliminary results show evidence for cool summers during the early Holocene as well as around the period of the Little Ice Age as defined in the North Atlantic region. These and other climate patterns determined from the Pupuke chironomid and pollen records will be compared with other evidence from northern New Zealand and with the North Atlantic record of Holocene climate variability. References

  19. EURO-CORDEX regional climate models: Performance over Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stilinović, Tomislav; Güttler, Ivan; Srnec, Lidija; Branković, Čedo

    2017-04-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) are high-resolution version of a global climate models (GCMs) designed to achieve simulations at horizontal resolutions relevant for human activities on local and regional spatial scales, and to simulate relevant processes in historical and potential future climate conditions. In this study, a set of experiments the EURO-CORDEX simulations are evaluated over the Mediterranean region. All simulations were made at the two horizontal resolutions (50 km and 12.5 km) and compared with gridded pan-European gridded dataset E-OBSv11 at the regular 0.25°×0.25° grid for the two periods (1989-2008 for the ERA-Interim-driven ensemble of simulations; 1971-2000 for the GCMs-driven ensemble of simulations). We will evaluate the impacts of (1) the boundary conditions, (2) different horizontal resolutions (0.44°/50 km vs. 0.11°/12.5 km), and (3) the impact of convective parametrization on systematic errors, specialy in case of the RegCM4 model extensively used at DHMZ. For each simulation commonly used evaluation metrics are applied. They include: (1) spatially-averaged differences between RCMs and observations, (2) the spatial 95 th percentiles of simulated and observed temperature and precipitation, (3) spatial correlation coefficients between models and observations, (4) the ratio of spatial standard deviations between simulated and observed fields, and (5) the Spearman rank correlations between simulated and observed time-series of spatially-averaged temperature and precipitation. As commonly found in other studies, the total precipitation in RCM simulations is often overestimated and spatial correlations are noticeably lower than for temperature. The results highlight that, the RegCM4 is able to capture the (observed) spatial variability of the Mediterranean temperature climate. This is indicated by high spatial correlations with values larger than 0.9 and values of normalized standard deviation below 1 for Mediterranean region. The results

  20. Drivers of diel and regional variations of halocarbon emissions from the tropical North East Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hepach, H.; Quack, B.; Ziska, F.; Fuhlbrügge, S.; Atlas, E. L.; Peeken, I.; Krüger, K.; Wallace, D. W. R.

    2013-07-01

    Methyl iodide (CH3I}, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), which are produced naturally in the oceans, take part in ozone chemistry both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The significance of oceanic upwelling regions for emissions of these trace gases in the global context is still uncertain although they have been identified as important source regions. To better quantify the role of upwelling areas in current and future climate, this paper analyzes major factors that influenced halocarbon emissions from the tropical North East Atlantic including the Mauritanian upwelling during the DRIVE expedition. Diel and regional variability of oceanic and atmospheric CH3I, CHBr3 and CH2Br2 was determined along with biological and meteorological parameters at six 24 h-stations. Low oceanic concentrations of CH3I from 0.1-5.4 pmol L-1 were equally distributed throughout the investigation area. CHBr3 of 1.0-42.4 pmol L-1 and CH2Br2 of 1.0-9.4 pmol L-1 were measured with maximum concentrations close to the Mauritanian coast. Atmospheric mixing rations of CH3I of up to 3.3, CHBr3 to 8.9 and CH2Br2 to 3.1 ppt above the upwelling and 1.8, 12.8, respectively 2.2 ppt at a Cape Verdean coast were detected during the campaign. While diel variability in CH3I emissions could be mainly ascribed to oceanic non-biological production, no main driver was identified for its emissions in the entire study region. In contrast, oceanic bromocarbons resulted from biogenic sources which were identified as regional drivers of their sea-to-air fluxes. The diel impact of wind speed on bromocarbon emissions increased with decreasing distance to the coast. The height of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) was determined as an additional factor influencing halocarbon emissions. Oceanic and atmospheric halocarbons correlated well in the study region and in combination with high oceanic CH3I, CHBr3 and CH2Br2 concentrations, local hot spots of atmospheric halocarbons could solely

  1. 600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, A.; Vieten, R.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most-recently published AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years with a time lag of 10-20 years. The time lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time periods of decreased rainfall. Over the past 600 years there are two intervals of increased Mg/Ca and δ13C values

  2. The relationship of boundary layer clouds in the tropical southeast Atlantic to absorbing aerosols, meteorology and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuidema, P.; Adebiyi, A. A.; Ramajiguru, L.

    2015-12-01

    Ascension Island, a remote island located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean within the trade-wind region oat 8S, 14.5W, experiences the outflow of biomass-burning aerosols from continental Africa, over 2000 km away, from July through November, peaking in August and September. The shortwave-absorbing free-tropospheric aerosols, located in a region of high solar irradiance, provide a climate warming that is poorly represented in global aerosol climate models. The low clouds can respond to the smoke layer in myriad possible ways that are not yet well-documented. The shortwave-warming can stabilize the free-troposphere, enhancing the low cloud fraction. The deepening boundary layer and subsiding smoke layer also increase the likelihood of aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions. Interest in this climate regime is supporting an observational strategy of a year-long DOE ARM Mobile Facility deployment to Ascension (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds, or LASIC), and an NSF aircraft campaign (ObservatioNs of Fire's Impact on the southeast atlantic REgion, or ONFIRE) based on Sao Tome Island. These campaigns will be integrated with NASA, UK and African activities sharing similar goals based further south in Namibia. Initial analysis is distinguishing meteorology from aerosol impacts on the boundary layer cloud fields. The forward trajectories of emissions from over 24,000 fire sources on continental Africa show that a free-tropospheric jet can advect aerosols to above Ascension island in just one-two days. The fast transport time encourages retention of signatures of the fire sources, in particular the radiatively-crucial single-scattering albedo value. Thereafter, a deep land-based anticyclonic high recirculates over one-third of these trajectories back to the African continent, explaining the widespread extent of the aerosol layer. The free-tropospheric jet also reduces the mean atmospheric subsidence independently of shortwave absorption by the aerosols

  3. Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

    PubMed

    Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

    2016-03-15

    Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

  4. Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities

    PubMed Central

    Barton, Andrew D.; Finkel, Zoe V.; Stock, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951–2000) and future (2051–2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec−1), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec−1. The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles. PMID:26903635

  5. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  6. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  7. Climatic and limnological changes associated with the Younger Dryas in Atlantic Canada

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, S.E.; Smol, J.P.; Walker, I.R.

    1993-03-01

    Pollen, diatom and chironomid fossils from the sediments of a core from Brier Island Bog Lake, Nova Scotia were studied in an attempt to relate changes in microfossil composition to a climatic cooling in Atlantic Canada correlative with the European Younger Dryas ca. 10 to 11 ka. Our paleolimnological data were then compared to similar types of data from Splan Pond, New Brunswick to determine if there were any significant differences between a coastal and a more inland site. Nonarboreal pollen was dominant throughout the Brier Island core and the interval 10.0-11.0 ka did not show the typical decline in Picea and increases in tundra-like vegetation characteristic of many sites in Atlantic Canada. However, the limnological indicators did undergo marked changes in taxon composition. The chironomid assemblage was initially dominated by shallow-water, warm-adapted chironomid taxa followed by abundant Sergentia (a cold stenotherm) during 10-11 ka. Sergentia disappeared in the {open_quotes}post Younger Dryas{close_quotes} interval and the warm-adapted genera resumed dominance. Chironomid-inferred paleotemperature reconstructions revealed that at both Brier Island Bog Lake and Splan Pond, summer surface-water temperatures dropped abruptly to between 13 and 17{degrees}C during the 10-11 ka interval, suggesting that a cooler climate was present in Atlantic Canada correlative with the European Younger Dryas. Diatom assemblage changes during the same period corroborate the occurrence of limnological fluctuations. 40 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  8. The Barrier Layer of the Atlantic Warmpool: Formation Mechanism and Influence on the Mean Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Jang, C. J.

    2012-04-20

    Many Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) tend to overestimate the salinity in the Atlantic warm pool or the Northwestern Tropical Atlantic (NWTA) and underestimate the surface salinity in the subtropical salinity maxima region. Most of these models also suffer from a sea-surface temperature (SST) bias in the NWTA region, leading to suggestions that the upper ocean salinity stratification may need to be improved in order to improve the Barrier Layer (BL) simulations and thus the SST through BL-SST-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) feedbacks. In the present study, we use a CGCM to perform a set of idealized numerical experiments to test and understand the sensitivity of the BL and consequently SST in the NWTA region to freshwater flux and hence the upper ocean salinity stratification. We find that the BL of the NWTA is sensitive to upper ocean salinity changes in the Amazon river discharge region and the subtropical salinity maxima region. The BL phenomenon is further manifested by the formation of winter temperature inversions in our model simulations, the maximum magnitude of inversions being about 0.20 C. The atmo- spheric response causes a statistically significant reduction of mean precipitation and SST in the equatorial Atlantic region and helps improve the respective biases by 10-15 %. In the region of improved BL simulation, the SST change is positive and in the right direction of bias correction, albeit weak.

  9. Educator Effectiveness Series: Assessing School Climate. Q&A with Jonathan Cohen, Ph.D. REL Mid-Atlantic Webinar

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    The REL Mid-Atlantic Webinar discussed the elements in a positive school climate and shared different methods for assessing school data, including the Comprehensive School Climate Inventory. The Q&A presented in this document address the questions participants had for Dr. Cohen following the webinar. The webinar recording and PowerPoint…

  10. Seasonal Simulation of Atlantic Hurricanes using the FSU/COAPS Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cocke, S.; Shin, D.; Lim, Y.; Larow, T.

    2009-05-01

    We use the FSU/COAPS climate model to study cyclogenesis, evolution, intra- to interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin and possible changes in activity due to climate change. The first phase of this project involves the simulation of recent year climatic conditions using observed SSTs. The second phase, currently underway, will simulate future climate scenarios using SSTs from IPCC climate model projections. The climate model is run at moderately high resolution (T126 or approximately 1 degree) and with 27 vertical levels. The model generates hurricane-like vortices that bear remarkable resemblance to their real-world counterparts: a warm core with cyclonic inflow at lower levels, anticyclonic outflow aloft, deep central pressures and intense precipitation. The genesis location and tracks are consistent with climatological observations. While the model produces fewer very intense storms (Category 4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) than observed, the total number of storms and interannual variability is very reasonable when compared to the historical record. In order assess the ability to simulate tropical cyclone activity on seasonal timescales, we run an ensemble of 4 6-month simulations for 20 years (1986-2005) using prescribed weekly sea surface temperatures. The simulation time period covers the North Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to November 30. Each ensemble member was initialized with a different atmospheric initial condition (near June 1 of the respective year) from ECMWF analyses. We find that for the Atlantic Basin, the correlation between the simulated and observed number of storms was approximately 0.78. The seasonality of the storms was similar to the observed, with most storms occurring in August and September, though not as sharply peaked. We further found that there can be large sensitivity to cyclogenesis using different model parameterizations. Pending completion of the second phase of the project, and

  11. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

    PubMed Central

    Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

  12. Climate change. Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures.

    PubMed

    Steinman, Byron A; Mann, Michael E; Miller, Sonya K

    2015-02-27

    The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed "AMO" and "PMO," respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or "false pause" in warming of the past decade.

  13. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

    PubMed

    Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

    2014-12-08

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

  14. Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gogineni, Sivaprasad; Thomas, Robert H.; Abdalati, Waleed (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    The Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a NASA-sponsored initiative with the prime objective of understanding the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In October 1998, PARCA investigators met to review activities of the previous year, assess the program's progress, and plan future investigations directed at accomplishing that objective. Some exciting results were presented and discussed, including evidence of dramatic thinning of the ice sheet near the southeastern coast. Details of the investigations and many of the accomplishments are given in this report, but major highlights are given in the Executive Summary of the report.

  15. Destabilization of glacial climate by the radiative impact of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation disruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galbraith, Eric D.; Merlis, Timothy M.; Palter, Jaime B.

    2016-08-01

    During each of the dramatic global warmings that ended the Pleistocene ice ages, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was disrupted. It is not clear whether this was a contributing cause or simply an effect of deglaciation. Here we show that in an ensemble of simulations with a global climate model, AMOC disruption causes a consistent and sustained positive radiative imbalance of 0.4 W m-2. The imbalance is accommodated by heat accumulation in the ocean interior, representing an overall planetary warming, subsequently released by deep convection in the North Atlantic when the AMOC resumes. The results suggest a means by which AMOC disruptions could have helped to tip the planet out of stable glaciated states. However, the fact that AMOC disruptions occurred during prior Heinrich Stadials without causing deglaciation shows that other factors, such as ice sheet dynamics, or controls on CO2, were also key for deglaciation.

  16. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    PubMed Central

    French, Joshua P.; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

    2017-01-01

    We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference. PMID:28936474

  17. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    French, Joshua P.; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

    2017-07-01

    We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  18. Climate mode simulation of North Atlantic polar lows in a limited area model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahn, Matthias; von Storch, Hans; Bakan, Stephan

    2008-08-01

    Polar lows are not properly resolved in global re-analyses. In order to describe the year-to-year variability and decadal trends in the formation of such mesoscale storms, atmospheric limited area models, which post-process re-analysis data, may be an appropriate tool. In this study we demonstrate the merits and potential of this approach. A series of 3-week long ensemble simulations of weather situations over the NE Atlantic with a limited area model/regional climate model (CLM) are examined. The model was driven with NCEP-NCAR re-analyses at the lateral and lower boundaries. Additionally, the spectral nudging technique was used to enforce the large-scale circulation, as given by the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, on the simulation. The ensemble members differ by initial conditions taken from several consecutive days. In most of the cases, a polar low developed after a simulated time of about 2 weeks, that is, long after the initialization of the model calculations. The spectrally nudged version of the model is very insensitive to initial conditions. The observed polar lows were reproduced in all ensemble members. A reasonable correlation between the simulated polar low features and those derived from a satellite product (HOAPS-III) and operational high-resolution weather analyses (DWD) is found. The polar lows are considerably deepened compared to the driving NCEP-NCAR analysis, but the comparison with weather maps indicates some differences in detail. When CLM is run without the large-scale constraint of spectral nudging, considerable variability emerges across the different ensemble members and the observed polar low often does not emerge.

  19. Origin of millennial-scale climate instabilities in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billups, K.; Scheinwald, A.; Dahl, P.

    2013-12-01

    We have generated a high resolution (~250-500 year) planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope record (Globigerinoides ruber white, senso lato) spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 6 through 8 in the northwestern subtropical Atlantic (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 172 Site 1059). The record fills a gap in an about 1.3 million year long time series of millennial-scale surface ocean hydrography in this region. We test the hypothesis that sub-orbital climate signals are linked to a response to precession forcing in tropical latitudes. Power spectra provide evidence for an increase in the length of half precession cycles as the 19 kyr precession period disappears from the insolation forcing at about 320 Ka in first order support of the hypothesis. In the time series, half precession (and quarter precession cycles when present) are evident as double (and quadruple) peaks within the given precession framework. However, in the time series there is no match between the amplitude modulation of the precession signal and its harmonics. During the time interval between 340-0 Ka (MIS 9-1) when the temporal resolution is high (250 year time step), the power spectra also contain significant peaks in the Dansgaard-Oeschger band (~1-8-1.5 kyr). Comparison of filter output with the time series, however, illustrates that there are only few instances where these types of variations are distinct in the foraminiferal δ18O record. We conclude that the evolution of half precession cycles over the time interval is largely consistent with a response to low latitude insolation, such as introduced by insolation maxima at the equinoxes and solstices (e.g., Short et al., 1991). Our analysis also shows that quarter precession cycles are present in the time series, at least intermittently, but we cannot uniquely tie them to changes in the primary precession signal. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating variations in the original time series to guide interpretations of significant peaks in

  20. Decoupling of Northern North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Deep Circulation during Abrupt Glacial Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonkers, L.; Barker, S.; Hall, I. R.

    2014-12-01

    Abrupt climate change is a prominent feature of the ice ages. The prevailing view is that these changes are related to fluctuations in ocean circulation, possibly triggered by changes in freshwater forcing as a result of ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic. Here we investigate this view by presenting results from a sediment core in the Northern North Atlantic (ODP 983 60.4°N, 23.6°W, 1984m depth, ~12-35 kyr), which is ideally positioned to monitor changes in the flow speed of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Waters. The mean size of silt (10-63 μm) has been proposed as a useful flow speed indicator, but can be influenced the presence of ice-rafted detritus (IRD). We present grain size data obtained using a Coulter counter as well as a laser diffraction particle sizer, which we compare to the proportion of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (proxy for sea surface temperature) and manually counted coarse IRD. Grain size results are comparable for the two techniques and the influence of IRD is clearly visible in the mean size data. We use end-member modelling to derive an IRD-free estimate of flow speed variability and find clear reductions in the flow speed associated with IRD input. Sea surface temperature however, appears to vary independently from IRD input and hence deep circulation. In particular, IRD appears and current speed decreases after the onset of cooling and additional temperature variability is observed that is not associated with IRD events or changes in the deep circulation. These results question the classical view of freshwater forcing as the driver of abrupt climate change. We suggest that North Atlantic temperature variability may be related to shifts in position of the polar front and that, while IRD events may be coeval with changes in the deep circulation, these changes are not required to explain the abrupt temperature variability in the Northern North Atlantic.

  1. Climate services within a regional climate adaptation project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Heidenreich, Majana; Franke, Johannes; Riedel, Kathrin; Matschullat, Jörg; Bernhofer, Christian

    2013-04-01

    In recent years the demand for adapting to climate variability and change became more and more obvious. Thus a multitude of projects dealing with climate adaptation strategies and concrete measures was launched. Commonly, developing adaptation options is based on downscaled climate model outputs. These outputs have to be provided within the projects, but just providing the data is far from being sufficient. Obstacles connected with using climate projections for climate adaptation include uncertainties and bandwidths of climate projections and the inability of models to describe parameters such as extreme weather events, which are particularly relevant for many climate adaptation decisions. Climate scientists know that model outputs are no climate data and cannot be treated as observational data were treated in the past. Still, many practitioners demand precise values for future climate to replace past CLINO-values and to run their applications. Thus, climate adaptation involves adapting the instruments and processes used in deriving climate-related decisions. Communicating the challenges arising from this need in rethinking common procedures is of outstanding significance for any successful adaptation practice. Dealing with uncertainties of climate projections is a constant necessity, since they are always based on several simplifications, parameterisations and assumptions, e.g., on the future socioeconomic development or on climate sensitivity. Future climate should thus be communicated in bandwidths. Working with just one scenario, one climate model, or even working with ensemble means is risky as it evokes a higher than appropriate perceived confidence in the results. It encourages using familiar tools in processing climate information, rather than caution. Consequences are suboptimal adaption and misallocation of finances. We encourage working with bandwidths and testing climate adaptation options against a broad range of possible future climates. Climate

  2. Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

    2014-05-01

    Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study

  3. CONTAMINATION OF FISH IN STREAMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION: AN APPROACH TO REGIONAL INDICATOR SELECTION AND WILDLIFE ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The extent of contamination of fish in the Mid-Atlantic Region was evaluated as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Monitoring and Assessment Program's regional assessment in 1993 through 1994. Fish assemblages from wadeable streams were dominated by small, short-...

  4. Regional monitoring of environmental physics climate related anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Askary, Hesham

    2004-11-01

    sensing using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Terra, with microwave sensing using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). This approach has the potential to be superior to currently used methods by distinguishing aerosol particles from dust particles based on their grain sizes. The Middle East, particularly Egypt and the Gulf region, is selected for such application since it is located on the northern part of the desert belt, and hence is considered to be an excellent location for dust measurements. Egypt is subject to industrial pollution and therefore the complex interactions of dust with industrial aerosols can affect precipitation and Earth's radiation budget. Another location, Indo-Gangetic basin, India is also selected since it experiences heavy dust storms that originate from the Saharan desert during the pre-monsoon period. In the application over India, the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) technology was used. The second application in this dissertation is the study of precipitation variability over the Mid-Atlantic region to help understanding the behavior causing anomalies like flooding and drought events. The impacts of global climate phenomena such as El Nino and La-Nina are studied emphasizing how strongly they affect or cause these events on regional scales.

  5. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  6. Health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities in the Mid-Atlantic United States

    DOE PAGES

    Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Luckow, Patrick; Fisher, Jeremy; ...

    2016-07-14

    Electricity from fossil fuels contributes substantially to both climate change and the health burden of air pollution. Renewable energy sources are capable of displacing electricity from fossil fuels, but the quantity of health and climate benefits depend on site-specific attributes that are not often included in quantitative models. Here, we link an electrical grid simulation model to an air pollution health impact assessment model and US regulatory estimates of the impacts of carbon to estimate the health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities of different sizes in two different locations. We find that offshore wind in the Mid-Atlantic ismore » capable of producing health and climate benefits of between $54 and $120 per MWh of generation, with the largest simulated facility (3000 MW off the coast of New Jersey) producing approximately $690 million in benefits in 2017. The variability in benefits per unit generation is a function of differences in locations (Maryland versus New Jersey), simulated years (2012 versus 2017), and facility generation capacity, given complexities of the electrical grid and differences in which power plants are offset. In the end, this work demonstrates health and climate benefits of off shore wind, provides further evidence of the utility of geographically-refined modeling frameworks, and yields quantitative insights that would allow for inclusion of both climate and public health in benefits assessments of renewable energy.« less

  7. Health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities in the Mid-Atlantic United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Luckow, Patrick; Fisher, Jeremy; Kempton, Willett; Levy, Jonathan I.

    2016-07-01

    Electricity from fossil fuels contributes substantially to both climate change and the health burden of air pollution. Renewable energy sources are capable of displacing electricity from fossil fuels, but the quantity of health and climate benefits depend on site-specific attributes that are not often included in quantitative models. Here, we link an electrical grid simulation model to an air pollution health impact assessment model and US regulatory estimates of the impacts of carbon to estimate the health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities of different sizes in two different locations. We find that offshore wind in the Mid-Atlantic is capable of producing health and climate benefits of between 54 and 120 per MWh of generation, with the largest simulated facility (3000 MW off the coast of New Jersey) producing approximately 690 million in benefits in 2017. The variability in benefits per unit generation is a function of differences in locations (Maryland versus New Jersey), simulated years (2012 versus 2017), and facility generation capacity, given complexities of the electrical grid and differences in which power plants are offset. This work demonstrates health and climate benefits of offshore wind, provides further evidence of the utility of geographically-refined modeling frameworks, and yields quantitative insights that would allow for inclusion of both climate and public health in benefits assessments of renewable energy.

  8. Extratropical cyclones in a warmer, moister climate: A recent Atlantic analogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Muxingzi; Woollings, Tim; Hodges, Kevin; Masato, Giacomo

    2014-12-01

    Current climate model projections do not exhibit a large change in the intensity of extratropical cyclones. However, there are concerns that current models represent moist processes poorly, and this provides motivation for investigating observational evidence for how cyclones behave in warmer climates. In the North Atlantic in particular, recent decades provide a clear contrast between warm and cold climates due to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In this paper we investigate these periods as analogues which may provide a guide to future cyclone behavior. While temperature and moisture rise in recent warm periods as in the projections, differences in energetics and temperature gradients imply that these periods are only partial analogues. The main result from current reanalyses is that while increased cyclone-associated precipitation is seen in the recent warm periods, there is no robust evidence of an increase in cyclone intensity by other measures, such as maximum wind speed or vorticity. A set of low- and high-resolution model simulations are also studied, suggesting that changes in cyclone intensity may be different in higher-resolution reanalyses.

  9. Response of winter North Atlantic storm track to climate change in the CNRM-CM5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chauvin, Fabrice; Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    Climate variability in Europe in winter is largely controlled by North Atlantic storm tracks. These are associated with transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour, between the equator and mid latitudes. Extratropical cyclones have caused severe damages over some regions in north-western Europe, since they can combine extreme precipitation and strong winds. This is why it is relevant to study the impact of climate change on the extratropical cyclones, principally on their intensity, position or lifespan. Indeed, several recent studies have focused on this subject by using atmospheric reanalysis and general circulation models (GCMs). The main conclusions from the CMIP3 simulations showed a decreasing of the total number of cyclones and a poleward shift of their tracks in response to global warming. In the recent CMIP5 exercise, the consensus is not so clear, probably due to more complex feedbacks acting in the different models. Thus, the question of changes in North Atlantic storm-tracks with warming remains open. The main goal of this work is to explore the changes in the North Atlantic storm-tracks in the past and future decades and to analyze the contributions of the different external forcings (natural and anthropogenic) versus the internal variability. On this purpose, we use the Detection and Attribution (D&A) simulations performed with the coupled model CNRM-CM5. To characterize the extratropical cyclones and their tracks, a tracking scheme based on the detection of maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa is conducted. We show that the coupled model fairly well reproduces the storm genesis locations as well as the tracks pathways comparing to several atmospheric reanalysis products. In the recent historical period (1950-2005), the model shows a decrease in the number of storms in the southern North-Atlantic, when all the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are prescribed. Even if the role of internal variability is important in the last decades (the

  10. The Influence of Glacial Ice Sheets on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Through Atmospheric Circulation Change under Glacial Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherriff-Tadano, S.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Yoshimori, M.; Oka, A.; Chan, W. L.

    2014-12-01

    It is well known that glacial ice sheets (Laurentide, Fennoscandian and Antarctic ice sheets) exert a large influence on the climate including the atmospheric circulation. Moreover, recent climate modeling studies suggest that glacial ice sheets have a large impact on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, the process by which the ice sheets impact on the AMOC is not yet fully understood. On the other hand, recent studies showed that surface wind changes play a crucial role on changes to the AMOC under glacial climate. Therefore, in this study, we investigate in detail, the process by which the ice sheet modifies the AMOC through surface wind change. Here we conduct numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) separately. Our method consists of 2 steps. First, from AGCM experiments, we evaluate the effect of glacial ice sheets on the surface wind. Second, from OGCM experiments, we evaluate the influence of the wind stress change on the AMOC by applying the surface wind change as a boundary condition, while leaving other boundary conditions (surface heat and water fluxes) unchanged. In addition, we conduct several sensitivity experiments. Using the AGCM, we explore individual ice sheet effect, ice sheet topography effect and albedo effect on surface wind change. Moreover, using the OGCM, we change the surface wind gradually or apply the surface wind change only at a specific region in order to explore the wind change effect in detail. We find that glacial ice sheets largely intensify the AMOC by surface wind change under glacial climate. Compare to other regions, it reveals that the wind change at the North Atlantic (NA) is a key region. There, the northern glacial ice sheet topography intensifies the Icelandic Low and anti-cyclonic circulation over the Laurentide ice sheet. However, this wind effect is effective only when the NA is not widely covered by sea ice

  11. Climate programs update: USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub update

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    PROGRAM OVERVIEW: The overarching goal of the USDA SW Climate Hub is to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in addressing the effects of climate change including prolonged drought, increased insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. In the first year of operations, the SW Climate Hub (est. Februa...

  12. Resolving the phasing and forcing dynamics between North Atlantic climate and deep ocean circulation changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvali, Nil; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.; Kleiven, Helga (Kikki) F.; Haflidason, Haflidi; Mjell, Tor L.

    2017-04-01

    Multidecadal changes in North Atlantic climate (e.g., AMO/AMV) have been attributed to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suggested as a driver of overturning changes. While simulations find an in-phase relationship when AMOC modulates basin-wide climate, AMOC lags when basin scale climate is forced externally (e.g., volcanoes and solar). Unfortunately the observational records are too short to assess these multi-decadal scale dynamics. The surface climate reconstructions, based on annually resolved archives, have excellent time control raising the possibility for precise determination of phasing with other well dated records. Yet, all currently available reconstructions of deep ocean circulation have radiometric based age models; with inherent errors (±30-50 years minimum) preventing the determination of the absolute phasing between deep oce