Science.gov

Sample records for atlantic climate region

  1. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Impact on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey S.

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  2. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON NUTRIENT FLUXES IN STREAM FLOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of a national assessment process, researchers of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) are studying the impacts of climate variation and change on the natural and social systems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This poster presents research investigating climate impacts ...

  3. IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

  4. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study analyzes periodic variations in the climate of the mid-Atlantic Region over the last 100 years and uses general circulation models (GCMs) to project major climate trends for the next hundred years. Historical data include the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for th...

  5. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels o...

  6. VULNERABILITY OF ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, USA, TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Changes in the distribution of vegetation in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States were explored for two climate-change scenarios. The equilibrium vegetation ecology (EVE) model was used to project the distribution of life forms and to combine these into biomes for a doubl...

  7. Regional impacts of Atlantic Forest deforestation on climate and vegetation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holm, J. A.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2012-12-01

    The Brazilian Atlantic Forest was a large and important forest due to its high biodiversity, endemism, range in climate, and complex geography. The original Atlantic Forest was estimated to cover 150 million hectares, spanning large latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevation gradients. This unique environment helped contribute to a diverse assemblage of plants, mammals, birds, and reptiles. Unfortunately, due to land conversion into agriculture, pasture, urban areas, and increased forest fragmentation, only ~8-10% of the original Atlantic Forest remains. Tropical deforestation in the Americas can have considerable effects on local to global climates, and surrounding vegetation growth and survival. This study uses a fully coupled, global climate model (Community Earth System Model, CESM v.1.0.1) to simulate the full removal of the historical Atlantic Forest, and evaluate the regional climatic and vegetation responses due to deforestation. We used the fully coupled atmosphere and land surface components in CESM, and a partially interacting ocean component. The vegetated grid cell portion of the land surface component, the Community Landscape Model (CLM), is divided into 4 of 16 plant functional types (PFTs) with vertical layers of canopy, leaf area index, soil physical properties, and interacting hydrological features all tracking energy, water, and carbon state and flux variables, making CLM highly capable in predicting the complex nature and outcomes of large-scale deforestation. The Atlantic Forest removal (i.e. deforestation) was conducted my converting all woody stem PFTs to grasses in CLM, creating a land-use change from forest to pasture. By comparing the simulated historical Atlantic Forest (pre human alteration) to a deforested Atlantic Forest (close to current conditions) in CLM and CESM we found that live stem carbon, NPP (gC m-2 yr-1), and other vegetation dynamics inside and outside the Atlantic Forest region were largely altered. In addition to vegetation

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper discusses the current status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems; how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential managemen...

  9. High-resolution Coupled Regional Climate Modeling in the Atlantic Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, J.; Patricola, C. M.; Chang, P.; Li, M.

    2011-12-01

    Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) that are used for centennial-scale climate projections typically lack sufficient horizontal resolution to properly resolve topographic features as well as fine-scale atmospheric and oceanic flow patterns that can have a significant impact on regional climate variability. A regional climate model can be used to carry out high-resolution climate simulations over specific regions on decadal timescales. Much of the research on regional climate modeling has been focused on the use of high-resolution uncoupled atmospheric models, but this approach neglects both the potential effects of air-sea feedbacks as well as the role of fine-scale oceanic phenomena, such as coastal upwelling, in regional climate variations. To address these omissions, we have developed a Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM), consisting of a high-resolution atmospheric model (WRF) coupled to a high-resolution ocean model (ROMS) in a region covering much of the Atlantic Ocean and surrounding continental areas. The two models use a common horizontal grid and exchange fluxes of momentum, heat, and freshwater every hour. We have carried out multi-year integrations using the CRCM at two different horizontal resolutions, 27km and 9km. We analyze tropical Atlantic variability in the CRCM simulations, focusing in particular on the statistics of simulated hurricanes, and the impact of air-sea interaction on the hurricane simulations. The CRCM produces fairly realistic hurricane activity, but with maximum intensities weaker than observations. To isolate the effect of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, we have also carried out a number of uncoupled (atmosphere-only) simulations of hurricane evolution initialized with "perfect initial conditions" obtained from the coupled integration, but using persisted sea surface temperatures as the surface boundary condition. Preliminary comparisons of the coupled and uncoupled simulations of hurricane evolution indicate that air

  10. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  11. Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, J.; Hoerling, M. P.; Folland, C. K.

    INTRODUCTION WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT REGIONAL - CLIMATE? WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS THAT GOVERN NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION VARIABILITY? Atmospheric Processes Ocean Forcing of the Atmosphere CONCLUDING COMMENTS ON THE OTHER ASPECTS OF NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE - VARIABILITY REFERENCES

  12. Response of Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity to Suppression of African Easterly Waves in a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, C. M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Atlantic tropical cyclones and African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked on the synoptic timescale, with about 85% of observed major Atlantic hurricanes originating from AEWs (e.g., Landsea et al. 1993). However, the influence of variability in AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is not fully understood; a positive correlation between AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity exists on the interannual timescale during just some periods of the observational record (e.g., Thorncroft and Hodges, 2001; Hopsch et al. 2007). This study investigates the impact of AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using regional climate model simulations in which AEWs were either prescribed or removed through the lateral boundary condition (LBC). The control simulation (10-member ensemble) was run at 27 km resolution and used 6-hourly LBCs from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and daily NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) V2 sea surface temperature (SST) from the year 2005. In the experiment AEWs were suppressed by filtering 2-10 day variability over tropical latitudes from the eastern LBC, located along the west coast of the Sahel. The difference in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency was insignificant between the simulations in which AEWs were prescribed versus suppressed, indicating that AEWs are not necessary to maintain climatological tropical cyclone frequency even though tropical cyclones readily originate from these features. This further implies that seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency is uninfluenced by variability in AEWs, and that the value of AEW variability as a predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclones is limited to the weekly timescale. However in response to filtering AEWs, accumulated cyclone energy significantly increased by about 15% of the control simulation mean and the spatial pattern of track density shifted in association with changes in steering winds. This suggests the importance of AEWs in impacting tropical cyclone

  13. Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

    SciTech Connect

    Saravanan, Ramalingam

    2015-01-09

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

  14. Late Pleistocene spread of (cool-)temperate forests in Northeast China and climate changes synchronous with the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stebich, Martina; Mingram, Jens; Han, Jingtai; Liu, Jiaqi

    2009-01-01

    The results presented here from the annually laminated sedimentary sequence of Sihailongwan lake provide the first comprehensive palaeoecological record covering the Late Pleniglacial to the Early Holocene (16,700-10,600 cal yrs. BP) from Northeast China. High-resolution pollen analyses have enabled the vegetational and climatic changes of the last glacial-interglacial transition to be reconstructed in more detail than has been previously possible. Moreover, a reliable chronology has been provided by both varve counting and 40 calibrated AMS 14C age determinations. Palaeobotanical evidence indicates predominantly steppe and open taiga-like woodland communities, with abundant Betula, Larix, Alnus fruticosa, Artemisia, grasses and sedges, which are typical of cold and dry conditions between 16,700 and 14,450 cal yrs. BP. The beginning expansion of Ulmus and Fraxinus marks the onset of the Late-glacial climatic amelioration at 14,450 cal yrs. BP. Dense deciduous forests, predominantly consisting of thermophilous broadleaf taxa, become established and widespread during the Early Holocene. Two short-term climatic reversals to colder and/or dryer conditions are recorded in the proxy data between 13,900 and 13,800 cal yrs. BP and 13,100 and 12,900 cal yrs. BP, correlating with the Oldest Dryas/Greenland Interstadial (GI) 1d event and the Gerzensee/Killarney/GI-1b oscillation, respectively. The prominent reappearance of Picea and Larix, coupled with a marked decrease in broadleaved trees, prior to the start of the Holocene, implies a climatic reversal compatible with the Younger Dryas event in the circum-Atlantic region. The evident synchroneity of climate changes in the North Atlantic region and East Asia supports the theory of strong atmospheric coupling between both regions.

  15. Final Report on Hierarchical Coupled Modeling and Prediction of Regional Climate Change in the Atlantic Sector

    SciTech Connect

    Saravanan, Ramalingam

    2011-10-30

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: a) Carried out studies of climate changes in the past using a hierarchy of intermediate coupled models (Chang et al., 2008; Wan et al 2009; Wen et al., 2010a,b) b) Completed the development of a Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM; Patricola et al., 2011a,b) c) Carried out studies testing hypotheses testing the origin of systematic errors in the CRCM (Patricola et al., 2011a,b) d) Carried out studies of the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, in the context of barrier layer interactions (Balaguru et al)

  16. Managing Stormwater Runoff From Urban Areas in Consideration of Predicted Climate Change Impacts in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Mean annual temperature and precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic, USA, increased over the last century, and global climate models applied to this region generally project that these trends will continue throughout the year 2100. Higher temperatures and associated evapotranspiration may decrease total annual baseflow, even as stormflow events increase in magnitude and intensity, leading to more frequent and larger nutrient and sediment fluxes to receiving waters. Development will create more impervious surfaces, thereby increasing the ratio of stormflow to baseflow volumes. The possibility of increasing riverine flow associated with climate change this century necessitates an evaluation of various best management practices (BMPs) in urban areas to develop and utilize BMPs that optimize reductions in nutrient and sediment fluxes, as well as determine the extent to which these BMPs should be implemented. The headwaters of the Patuxent watershed are located in a highly developed urban corridor between Washington DC and Baltimore thus making it an ideal setting to explore potential climate change impacts in urban areas. Scenarios generated from a system of linked watershed and estuarine models were used to determine climate and land use change effects on Patuxent River runoff and estuarine water quality. The uncertainties of climate predictions and their implications regarding proactive mitigation approaches to manage pollutant fluxes from urban areas are discussed.

  17. The Atlantic Climate Change Program

    SciTech Connect

    Molinari, R.L. ); Battisti, D. ); Bryan, K. ); Walsh, J. )

    1994-07-01

    The Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) is a component of NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program. ACCP is directed at determining the role of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean on global atmospheric climate. Efforts and progress in four ACCP elements are described. Advances include (1) descriptions of decadal and longer-term variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system of the North Atlantic; (2) development of tools needed to perform long-term model runs of coupled simulations of North Atlantic air-sea interaction; (3) definition of mean and time-dependent characteristics of the thermohaline circulation; and (4) development of monitoring strategies for various elements of the thermohaline circulation. 20 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Climatic Trends in the Triassic to Early Jurassic Lacustrine Succession of East Greenland: Implications for Correlation in the North Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Steven

    2013-04-01

    The Triassic continental successions of the North Atlantic region are poorly age constrained and therefore regional correlation is problematic. Climatic trends offer potential as the basis of regional correlation. The Triassic of East Greenland lies in the northern continuation of the northern North Sea Rift and, following reconstruction, aligns with the Viking Graben. This position, between the northern North Sea, Norwegian Sea and the Barents Shelf successions, means it is key in constructing regional correlations and understanding both tectonic and climatic evolution throughout the Triassic of the North Atlantic region. Detailed sedimentological study of exceptional exposures through the largely lacustrine Mid-Late Triassic succession of East Greenland has provided the basis for a palaeoclimatic reconstruction. This has highlighted the occurrence of significant periods of increased aridity during the Late Ladinian and the Late Carnian which bracket the more humid conditions of the Early Carnian (the 'Carnian Pluvial Event'). Following the Late Carnian arid phase a gradual cooling through the Late Triassic and Early Jurassic is recorded. Comparisons and correlations are made with Triassic successions throughout the North Atlantic. Understanding climatic trends and the response of sedimentary systems to these has important implications for the construction of facies models and therefore the prediction of both reservoir and seal distribution in the prospective North Atlantic petroleum provinces.

  19. Climatic trends in the North Atlantic region during the last 2,000 years in an orbitally forced AOGCM simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.

    2013-12-01

    The global coverage of temporal highly resolved proxy-based climate reconstructions is extending to cover the last 2,000 years. It is thus important to fully understand the effect of the orbital forcing at these time scales, as the imprint of the orbital forcing becomes clearer when analyzing climate on time scales longer than the last 1,000 years. The slow-varying orbital parameters affect the seasonal distribution of the incoming solar radiation. Although changes are not as pronounced compared to the mid-Holocene, still distinct differences exist, with lower insolation between February and May and higher insolation between July and October over the mid- and high northern latitudes 2,000 years ago compared to present. Here, we analyze a simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G forced only with changes in orbital variations for the last 2,000 years. Other factors such as solar activity and greenhouse gas changes are set to constant pre-industrial values. The modeled near-surface temperature trends reflect the expected orbitally induced insolation trends over the northern hemispheric continents and the Arctic, with increased temperatures during May and reduced temperatures during October. Over the North Atlantic Ocean, however SST trends are not directly consistent to changes in orbital forcing throughout the year, mostly showing little or slight uniform cooling trends. The strength of the maximum overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean also shows no clear-cut trends that can be linked to changes in external forcings. Other variables related to oceanic convection and surface heat fluxes indicate, however, spatially heterogeneous trend patterns. For example, regions south of Greenland and off Labrador show increases in convection that compensate the decreases over the Labrador and the Norwegian Sea. This pattern varies in intensity and spatial extent between the different winter half year months. Changes in oceanic convection and surface heat

  20. Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes

  1. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #17: PUBLICATION OF MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report, "Preparing for a Changing Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change - Mid-Atlantic Overview", summarizes the findings of the first Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment was led by a team from The Pennsylvani...

  2. Correcting North Atlantic sea surface salinity biases in the Kiel Climate Model: influences on ocean circulation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, T.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2016-10-01

    A long-standing problem in climate models is the large sea surface salinity (SSS) biases in the North Atlantic. In this study, we describe the influences of correcting these SSS biases on the circulation of the North Atlantic as well as on North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal to multidecadal variability. We performed integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) with and without applying a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic. The quality of simulating the mean circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability is greatly enhanced in the freshwater flux-corrected integration which, by definition, depicts relatively small North Atlantic SSS biases. In particular, a large reduction in the North Atlantic cold sea surface temperature bias is observed and a more realistic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability simulated. Improvements relative to the non-flux corrected integration also comprise a more realistic representation of deep convection sites, sea ice, gyre circulation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The results suggest that simulations of North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability could strongly benefit from alleviating sea surface salinity biases in the North Atlantic, which may enhance the skill of decadal predictions in that region.

  3. Effects of Climate Change on Stormwater Capture Depths in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, I.; Moglen, G. E.; Hubacek, K.

    2014-12-01

    Increases in storm intensity and magnitude affects regional and local scale watershed hydrology and corresponding impacts. Information pertaining to the annual rainfall is valuable in flood mitigation and water quality concerns. The approach of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide onsite detention of various percentile capture depths stormwater management is examined here. Such information is pertinent to construct new or extend current undersized drainage infrastructures with consideration of future high intensity flood events which are anticipated to increase. In this study, the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate model (RCM) precipitation baseline (1973-2000) and future (2041-2070) data are used to generate annual 85% and 95% capture depths for Washington D.C.-Baltimore metropolitan area. The RCM data contain systematic biases and are therefore adjusted to produce appropriate estimates at the local scale. Depending on the adjustment technique used, the statistically transformed data leads to increased precipitation capture depths. In this study, several approaches: non-parametric, parametric, and modified parametric methods are employed for bias correction. Graphical comparisons of the adjustment techniques using National Climate Data Center (NCDC) and several model combinations (GCM+RCM) daily rainfall data are presented. Comparisons are made between NCDC daily rainfall and simulated (uncorrected and corrected) data to assess mean absolute error.

  4. Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saba, Vincent S.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Anderson, Whit G.; Winton, Michael; Alexander, Michael A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Rosati, Anthony; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment of projected global and regional ocean temperature change is based on global climate models that have coarse (˜100 km) ocean and atmosphere resolutions. In the Northwest Atlantic, the ensemble of global climate models has a warm bias in sea surface temperature due to a misrepresentation of the Gulf Stream position; thus, existing climate change projections are based on unrealistic regional ocean circulation. Here we compare simulations and an atmospheric CO2 doubling response from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmosphere resolution. We find that the highest resolution climate model (˜10 km ocean, ˜50 km atmosphere) resolves Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately. The CO2 doubling response from this model shows that upper-ocean (0-300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average. This enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to a change in water mass distribution that is related to a retreat of the Labrador Current and a northerly shift of the Gulf Stream. Both observations and the climate model demonstrate a robust relationship between a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and an increase in the proportion of Warm-Temperate Slope Water entering the Northwest Atlantic Shelf. Therefore, prior climate change projections for the Northwest Atlantic may be far too conservative. These results point to the need to improve simulations of basin and regional-scale ocean circulation.

  5. A Regional Climate Mode Discovered in the North Atlantic: Dakar Niño/Niña

    PubMed Central

    Oettli, Pascal; Morioka, Yushi; Yamagata, Toshio

    2016-01-01

    The interrannual variability of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies confined off Senegal is explored from a new viewpoint of the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The phenomenon may be classified into “coastal Niño/Niña” in the North Atlantic as discussed recently in the Northeastern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Oceans. The interannual variability of the regional mixed-layer temperature anomaly that evolves in boreal late fall and peaks in spring is associated with the alongshore wind anomaly, mixed-layer depth anomaly and cross-shore atmospheric pressure gradient anomaly, suggesting the existence of ocean-land-atmosphere coupled processes. The coupled warm (cold) event is named Dakar Niño (Niña). The oceanic aspect of the Dakar Niño (Niña) may be basically explained by anomalous warming (cooling) of the anomalously thin (thick) mixed-layer, which absorbs shortwave surface heat flux. In the case of Dakar Niña, however, enhancement of the entrainment at the bottom of the mixed-layer is not negligible. PMID:26739121

  6. Precipitation intercomparison of a set of satellite- and raingauge-derived datasets, ERA Interim reanalysis, and a single WRF regional climate simulation over Europe and the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skok, Gregor; Žagar, Nedjeljka; Honzak, Luka; Žabkar, Rahela; Rakovec, Jože; Ceglar, Andrej

    2016-01-01

    The study presents a precipitation intercomparison based on two satellite-derived datasets (TRMM 3B42, CMORPH), four raingauge-based datasets (GPCC, E-OBS, Willmott & Matsuura, CRU), ERA Interim reanalysis (ERAInt), and a single climate simulation using the WRF model. The comparison was performed for a domain encompassing parts of Europe and the North Atlantic over the 11-year period of 2000-2010. The four raingauge-based datasets are similar to the TRMM dataset with biases over Europe ranging from -7 % to +4 %. The spread among the raingauge-based datasets is relatively small over most of Europe, although areas with greater uncertainty (more than 30 %) exist, especially near the Alps and other mountainous regions. There are distinct differences between the datasets over the European land area and the Atlantic Ocean in comparison to the TRMM dataset. ERAInt has a small dry bias over the land; the WRF simulation has a large wet bias (+30 %), whereas CMORPH is characterized by a large and spatially consistent dry bias (-21 %). Over the ocean, both ERAInt and CMORPH have a small wet bias (+8 %) while the wet bias in WRF is significantly larger (+47 %). ERAInt has the highest frequency of low-intensity precipitation while the frequency of high-intensity precipitation is the lowest due to its lower native resolution. Both satellite-derived datasets have more low-intensity precipitation over the ocean than over the land, while the frequency of higher-intensity precipitation is similar or larger over the land. This result is likely related to orography, which triggers more intense convective precipitation, while the Atlantic Ocean is characterized by more homogenous large-scale precipitation systems which are associated with larger areas of lower intensity precipitation. However, this is not observed in ERAInt and WRF, indicating the insufficient representation of convective processes in the models. Finally, the Fraction Skill Score confirmed that both models perform

  7. Impacts of Sea Surface Salinity Bias Correction on North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Climate Variability in the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

    2016-04-01

    We investigated impacts of correcting North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) biases on the ocean circulation of the North Atlantic and on North Atlantic sector mean climate and climate variability in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Bias reduction was achieved by applying a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model. The quality of simulating the mean circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability is greatly enhanced in the freshwater flux-corrected integration which, by definition, depicts relatively small North Atlantic SSS biases. In particular, a large reduction in the North Atlantic cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias is observed and a more realistic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) simulated. Improvements relative to the non-flux corrected integration also comprise a more realistic representation of deep convection sites, sea ice, gyre circulation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The results suggest that simulations of North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability could strongly benefit from alleviating sea surface salinity biases in the North Atlantic, which may enhance the skill of decadal predictions in that region.

  8. Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate.

    PubMed

    Sutton, Rowan T; Hodson, Daniel L R

    2005-07-01

    Recent extreme events such as the devastating 2003 European summer heat wave raise important questions about the possible causes of any underlying trends, or low-frequency variations, in regional climates. Here, we present new evidence that basin-scale changes in the Atlantic Ocean, probably related to the thermohaline circulation, have been an important driver of multidecadal variations in the summertime climate of both North America and western Europe. Our findings advance understanding of past climate changes and also have implications for decadal climate predictions.

  9. Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate.

    PubMed

    Sutton, Rowan T; Hodson, Daniel L R

    2005-07-01

    Recent extreme events such as the devastating 2003 European summer heat wave raise important questions about the possible causes of any underlying trends, or low-frequency variations, in regional climates. Here, we present new evidence that basin-scale changes in the Atlantic Ocean, probably related to the thermohaline circulation, have been an important driver of multidecadal variations in the summertime climate of both North America and western Europe. Our findings advance understanding of past climate changes and also have implications for decadal climate predictions. PMID:15994552

  10. Climate, fishery and society interactions: Observations from the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C.

    2007-11-01

    Interdisciplinary studies comparing fisheries-dependent regions across the North Atlantic find a number of broad patterns. Large ecological shifts, disastrous to historical fisheries, have resulted when unfavorable climatic events occur atop overfishing. The "teleconnections" linking fisheries crises across long distances include human technology and markets, as well as climate or migratory fish species. Overfishing and climate-driven changes have led to a shift downwards in trophic levels of fisheries takes in some ecosystems, from dominance by bony fish to crustaceans. Fishing societies adapt to new ecological conditions through social reorganization that have benefited some people and places, while leaving others behind. Characteristic patterns of demographic change are among the symptoms of such reorganization. These general observations emerge from a review of recent case studies of individual fishing communities, such as those conducted for the North Atlantic Arc research project.

  11. Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Y.; Mochizuki, T.; Timmermann, A.; Kimoto, M.; Watanabe, M.

    2016-07-01

    The tropical Pacific cooling from the early 1990s to 2013 has contributed to the slowdown of globally averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The origin of this regional cooling trend still remains elusive. Here we demonstrate that the remote impact of Atlantic SST anomalies, as well as local atmosphere-ocean interactions, contributed to the eastern Pacific cooling during this period. By assimilating observed three-dimensional Atlantic temperature and salinity anomalies into a coupled general circulation model, we are able to qualitatively reproduce the observed Pacific decadal trends of SST and sea level pressure (SLP), albeit with reduced amplitude. Although a major part of the Pacific SLP trend can be explained by equatorial Pacific SST forcing only, the origin of this low-frequency variability can be traced back further to the remote impacts of equatorial Atlantic and South Atlantic SST trends. Atlantic SST impacts on the atmospheric circulation can also be detected for the Northeastern Pacific, thus providing a linkage between Atlantic climate and Western North American drought conditions.

  12. Tephra constraints on Rapid Climate Events (TRACE): precise correlation of marine and ice-core records during the last glacial period in the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, S. M.; Griggs, A. J.; Abbott, P. M.; Bourne, A. J.; Purcell, C. S.; Hall, I. R.; Scourse, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Little has challenged our understanding of climate change more so than the abruptness with which large-scale shifts in temperature occurred during the last glacial period. Atmospheric temperature jumps occurring within decades over Greenland were closely matched by rapid changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and major re-organisation of the deep ocean circulation. Although these climatic instabilities are well-documented in various proxy records, the causal mechanisms of such short-lived oscillations remain poorly understood, largely due to the dating uncertainties that prevent the integration of different archives. Synchronisation of palaeoclimate records on a common timescale is inherently problematic, and unravelling the lead/lag responses (hence cause and effect) between the Earth's climate components is currently beyond our reach. TRACE - a 5 year project funded by the European Research Council - exploits the use of microscopic traces of tephra deposits to precisely correlate the Greenland ice-cores with North Atlantic marine records. Here we draw upon examples of how these time-lines can be used to constrain the lead/lag responses between the atmospheric and oceanic systems during the last glacial period. High-resolution proxy data from North Atlantic marine cores MD04-2829CQ from the Rosemary Bank and MD04 2820CQ from the Goban Spur are integrated with the Greenland ice-cores according to the position of common tephra isochrons. These direct tie-lines allow us to focus in detail on the relative timing of rapid warming transitions between Greenland and the North Atlantic ocean during the last glacial period.

  13. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pinkney, Alfred E.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Evers, David C.; Hooper, Michael J.; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W.; Lazarus, Rebecca; Marshall, Harold G.; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A.; Schmerfeld, John J.; Sparling, Donald W.

    2015-01-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures

  14. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region.

    PubMed

    Pinkney, Alfred E; Driscoll, Charles T; Evers, David C; Hooper, Michael J; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W; Lazarus, Rebecca S; Marshall, Harold G; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A; Schmerfeld, John; Sparling, Donald W

    2015-07-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public-private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena-freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and

  15. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region.

    PubMed

    Pinkney, Alfred E; Driscoll, Charles T; Evers, David C; Hooper, Michael J; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W; Lazarus, Rebecca S; Marshall, Harold G; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A; Schmerfeld, John; Sparling, Donald W

    2015-07-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public-private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena-freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and

  16. Synchronous climate changes in antarctica and the north atlantic

    PubMed

    Steig; Brook; White; Sucher; Bender; Lehman; Morse; Waddington; Clow

    1998-10-01

    Central Greenland ice cores provide evidence of abrupt changes in climate over the past 100,000 years. Many of these changes have also been identified in sedimentary and geochemical signatures in deep-sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic, confirming the link between millennial-scale climate variability and ocean thermohaline circulation. It is shown here that two of the most prominent North Atlantic events-the rapid warming that marks the end of the last glacial period and the Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas oscillation-are also recorded in an ice core from Taylor Dome, in the western Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. This result contrasts with evidence from ice cores in other regions of Antarctica, which show an asynchronous response between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

  17. Synchronous climate changes in Antarctica and the North Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steig, E.J.; Brook, E.J.; White, J.W.C.; Sucher, C.M.; Bender, M.L.; Lehman, S.J.; Morse, D.L.; Waddington, E.D.; Clow, G.D.

    1998-01-01

    Central Greenland ice cores provide evidence of abrupt changes in climate over the past 100,000 years. Many of these changes have also been identified in sedimentary and geochemical signatures in deep-sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic, confirming the link between millennial-scale climate variability and ocean thermohaline circulation. It is shown here that two of the most prominent North Atlantic events - the rapid warming that makes the end of the last glacial period and the Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas oscillation - are also recorded in an ice core from Taylor Dome, in the western Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. This result contrasts with evidence from ice cores in other regions of Antarctica, which show an asynchronous response between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

  18. Synchronous climate changes in antarctica and the north atlantic

    PubMed

    Steig; Brook; White; Sucher; Bender; Lehman; Morse; Waddington; Clow

    1998-10-01

    Central Greenland ice cores provide evidence of abrupt changes in climate over the past 100,000 years. Many of these changes have also been identified in sedimentary and geochemical signatures in deep-sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic, confirming the link between millennial-scale climate variability and ocean thermohaline circulation. It is shown here that two of the most prominent North Atlantic events-the rapid warming that marks the end of the last glacial period and the Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas oscillation-are also recorded in an ice core from Taylor Dome, in the western Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. This result contrasts with evidence from ice cores in other regions of Antarctica, which show an asynchronous response between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. PMID:9756484

  19. Cenozoic climates: evidence from the North Atlantic

    SciTech Connect

    Berggren, W.A.

    1985-01-01

    Cenozoic biostratigraphy and climatology of the North Atlantic and adjacent land areas reflects the continuing fragmentation of Eurasia and concomitant changes on ocean-continent geometry. A latitudinal (zonal) Mesozoic circulation pattern evolved into a predominantly longitudinal (meridional) pattern during the Cenozoic in which the development of oceanic gateways and barriers gradually decreased the efficiency of poleward heat transfer resulting in the progressive climatic change which has taken place over the past 50 million years. Cenozoic distributional data from the North Atlantic and adjacent land areas will be reviewed from the following fields: a) terrestrial vertebrates and floras: b) marine calcareous microplankton and benthic foraminifera; c) other marine invertebrates. Available data suggests that the present climate in the northern hemisphere has resulted from a gradual, but inexorable, strengthening of latitudinal and vertical temperature gradients punctuated by several brief intervals of accelerated change. The absence of evidence for northern hemisphere polar glaciation prior to the late Neogene does not preclude seasonal cooling near the freezing point in post-Eocene time. Evidence for early Paleogene cold climates is not reflected in the fossil record.

  20. Climatic Concepts and Regions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Paul F.

    Designed for students in grades 7 through 12, this teaching unit presents illustrative resource materials depicting concepts related to climate and geographic regions. Emphasis is on giving students an understanding of climatic elements and factors, not as isolated, disjointed entities, but as a dynamic interplay of forces having a very definite…

  1. North Atlantic-Fennoscandian Holocene climate trends and mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sejrup, Hans Petter; Seppä, Heikki; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; de Vernal, Anne; Renssen, Hans; Husum, Katrine; Jennings, Anne; Andrews, John T.

    2016-09-01

    To investigate the mechanisms behind Holocene regional climate trends from north of 58°N in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed and a temperature anomaly stack produced from 81 proxy derived summer temperature time series from 74 sites. The PC results show distinctly different trends for near-surface versus surface temperatures, demonstrating the importance of handling these separately. The first PC of weighted sea surface summer temperature time series and continental time series explains 45 ± 8% of the variance, where the uncertainty is the standard deviation of the distribution of variance explained across the 1000 age-uncertain ensemble members. PC1 has a relatively uniform expression over the whole region, closely following the summer insolation at 65°N. The second PC explains 22 ± 4% of the variance and shows a non-uniform expression, with loadings in opposite directions in the northern and southeastern parts of the region. Comparing the PC time series with model runs and with the timing of the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), suggest that this pattern reflects both topographic and albedo effects of the LIS as well as release of meltwater into the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Comparing the stack of gridded records with published global stacks reveals an unusual Holocene temperature development in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region most likely resulting from the location relative to the decaying LIS.

  2. Impacts of the Atlantic Equatorial Mode in a warmer climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa

    2015-10-01

    The main source of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Tropical Atlantic at interannual time scales is the Equatorial Mode or Atlantic El Niño. It has been shown to affect the adjacent continents and also remote regions, leading to a weakened Indian Monsoon and promoting La Niña-type anomalies over the Pacific. However, its effects in a warmer climate are unknown. This work analyses the impact of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century by means of sensitivity experiments with an atmosphere general circulation model. The prescribed boundary conditions for the future climate are based on the outputs from models participating in the coupled model intercomparison project—phase V. Our results suggest that even if the characteristics of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century remained equal to those of the twentieth century, there will be an eastward shift of the main rainfall positive anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic and a weakening of the negative rainfall anomalies over the Asian monsoon due to the change in climatological SSTs. We also show that extratropical surface temperature anomalies over land related to the mode will change in regions like Southwestern Europe, East Australia, Asia or North America due to the eastward shift of the sea level pressure systems and related surface winds.

  3. Impacts of the Atlantic Equatorial Mode in a warmer climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa

    2015-04-01

    The main source of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in the Tropical Atlantic at interannual time scales is the Equatorial Mode or Atlantic El Niño. It has been shown to affect the adjacent continents and also remote regions, leading to a weakened Indian Monsoon and promoting La Niña-type anomalies over the Pacific. However, its effects in a warmer climate are unknown. This work analyses the impact of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the 21st Century by means of sensitivity experiments with an Atmosphere General Circulation Model. The prescribed boundary conditions for the future climate are based on the outputs from models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase V. Our results suggest that even if the characteristics of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the 21st Century remained equal to those of the 20th Century, there will be an eastward shift of the main rainfall positive anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and a weakening of the negative rainfall anomalies over the Asian monsoon due to the change in climatological SSTs. We also show that extratropical surface temperature anomalies over land related to the mode will change in regions like Southwestern Europe, East Australia, Asia or North America due to the eastward shift of the sea level pressure systems and related surface winds.

  4. The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Alvarez, Francisco; Izquierdo, Alfredo; Keenlyside, Noel; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-08-01

    The key role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) on the seasonal cycle of the tropical Atlantic is investigated with a regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean model for two different coupled domains. Both domains include the equatorial Atlantic and a large portion of the northern tropical Atlantic, but one extends southward, and the other northwestward. The SAA is simulated as internal model variability in the former, and is prescribed as external forcing in the latter. In the first case, the model shows significant warm biases in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Angola-Benguela front zone. If the SAA is externally prescribed, these biases are substantially reduced. The biases are both of oceanic and atmospheric origin, and are influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions in coupled runs. The strong SST austral summer biases are associated with a weaker SAA, which weakens the winds over the southeastern tropical Atlantic, deepens the thermocline and prevents the local coastal upwelling of colder water. The biases in the basins interior in this season could be related to the advection and eddy transport of the coastal warm anomalies. In winter, the deeper thermocline and atmospheric fluxes are probably the main biases sources. Biases in incoming solar radiation and thus cloudiness seem to be a secondary effect only observed in austral winter. We conclude that the external prescription of the SAA south of 20°S improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle over the tropical Atlantic, revealing the fundamental role of this anticyclone in shaping the climate over this region.

  5. Modeling the impact of changes in Atlantic sea surface temperature on the climate of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adeniyi, Mojisola O.

    2016-08-01

    This study assesses the impacts of warming/cooling of the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on the climate of West Africa using Version 4.4 of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. The 1-2 K cooling and warming of the Atlantic SST both result in tripole temperature and precipitation change structure, having a northwest-southeast orientation over West Africa. Findings reveal that the responses of precipitation and temperature to the Atlantic SST cooling are opposite to those for the Atlantic SST warming and these responses intensify with increased warming/cooling of the Atlantic SST. The structure of the change in climate is attributed to the response of atmospheric/soil moisture gradient and orientation of orography in West Africa.

  6. Aerosol interactions with African/Atlantic climate dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.

    2014-07-01

    Mechanistic relationships exist between variability of dust in the oceanic Saharan air layer (OSAL) and transient changes in the dynamics of Western Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This study provides evidence of possible interactions between dust in the OSAL region and African easterly jet-African easterly wave (AEJ-AEW) system in the climatology of boreal summer, when easterly wave activity peaks. Synoptic-scale changes in instability and precipitation in the African/Atlantic intertropical convergence zone are correlated with enhanced aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the OSAL region in response to anomalous 3D overturning circulations and upstream/downstream thermal anomalies at above and below the mean-AEJ level. Upstream and downstream anomalies are referred to the daily thermal/dynamical changes over the West African monsoon region and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Our hypothesis is that AOD in the OSAL is positively correlated with the downstream AEWs and negatively correlated with the upstream waves from climatological perspective. The similarity between the 3D pattern of thermal/dynamical anomalies correlated with dust outbreaks and those of AEWs provides a mechanism for dust radiative heating in the atmosphere to reinforce AEW activity. We proposed that the interactions of OSAL dust with regional climate mainly occur through coupling of dust with the AEWs.

  7. North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara

    2009-08-01

    Marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid change at local and global scales. To understand these changes, including the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic effects, and to predict the future state of marine ecosystems requires quantitative understanding of the physics, biogeochemistry and ecology of oceanic systems at mechanistic levels. Central to this understanding is the role played by dominant patterns or "modes" of atmospheric and oceanic variability, which orchestrate coherent variations in climate over large regions with profound impacts on ecosystems. We review the spatial structure of extratropical climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere and, specifically, focus on modes of climate variability over the extratropical North Atlantic. A leading pattern of weather and climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO refers to a redistribution of atmospheric mass between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic, and swings from one phase to another producing large changes in surface air temperature, winds, storminess and precipitation over the Atlantic as well as the adjacent continents. The NAO also affects the ocean through changes in heat content, gyre circulations, mixed layer depth, salinity, high latitude deep water formation and sea ice cover. Thus, indices of the NAO have become widely used to document and understand how this mode of variability alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. There is no unique way, however, to define the NAO. Several approaches are discussed including both linear (e.g., principal component analysis) and nonlinear (e.g., cluster analysis) techniques. The former, which have been most widely used, assume preferred atmospheric circulation states come in pairs, in which anomalies of opposite polarity have the same spatial structure. In contrast, nonlinear techniques search for recurrent patterns of a specific amplitude and sign. They reveal

  8. North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara

    2010-02-01

    Marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid change at local and global scales. To understand these changes, including the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic effects, and to predict the future state of marine ecosystems requires quantitative understanding of the physics, biogeochemistry and ecology of oceanic systems at mechanistic levels. Central to this understanding is the role played by dominant patterns or "modes" of atmospheric and oceanic variability, which orchestrate coherent variations in climate over large regions with profound impacts on ecosystems. We review the spatial structure of extratropical climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere and, specifically, focus on modes of climate variability over the extratropical North Atlantic. A leading pattern of weather and climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO refers to a redistribution of atmospheric mass between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic, and swings from one phase to another producing large changes in surface air temperature, winds, storminess and precipitation over the Atlantic as well as the adjacent continents. The NAO also affects the ocean through changes in heat content, gyre circulations, mixed layer depth, salinity, high latitude deep water formation and sea ice cover. Thus, indices of the NAO have become widely used to document and understand how this mode of variability alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. There is no unique way, however, to define the NAO. Several approaches are discussed including both linear (e.g., principal component analysis) and nonlinear (e.g., cluster analysis) techniques. The former, which have been most widely used, assume preferred atmospheric circulation states come in pairs, in which anomalies of opposite polarity have the same spatial structure. In contrast, nonlinear techniques search for recurrent patterns of a specific amplitude and sign. They reveal

  9. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, James W.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Ottersen, Geir; Visbeck, Martin

    Over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere the most prominent and recurrent pattern of atmospheric variability is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO refers to swings in the atmospheric sea level pressure difference between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic that are most noticeable during the boreal cold season (November-April) and are associated with changes in the mean wind speed and direction. Such changes alter the seasonal mean heat and moisture transport between the Atlantic and the neighboring continents, as well as the intensity and number of storms, their paths, and their weather. Significant changes in ocean surface temperature and heat content, ocean currents and their related heat transport, and sea ice cover in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions are also induced by changes in the NAO. Such climatic fluctuations affect agricultural harvests, water management, energy supply and demand, and fisheries yields. All these effects have led to many studies of the phenomenon; yet, despite this interest, unanswered questions remain regarding the climatic processes that govern NAO variability, how the phenomenon has varied in the past or will vary in the future, and whether it is at all predictable.

  10. ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN NAO VARIBILITY AND U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROCLIMATOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Variability in the climate of the US Mid-Atlantic Region is associated with larger scale variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Collectively, these three large-scal...

  11. Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lipschultz, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

  12. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-01-01

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface. PMID:26369503

  13. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-09-15

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

  14. Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

    In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

  15. Resolution dependence of simulated extreme wave climate in the North Atlantic in a changing climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmermans, B.; Stone, D. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Krishnan, H.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies have investigated how regional and global wave climate may change in a warmer world. The approach is often to project wave climate by using output from atmospheric circulation models, either as input to statistical downscaling methods that determine the resulting waves, or as forcing for numerical wind-wave models. An important influence on the wave climate is the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, but to date, many atmospheric models have been run at resolutions too low (~1.0 degree) to accurately reproduce such phenomenon, which in turn has lead to poor predictions of waves in affected regions. Tropical cyclones therefore remain an important source of uncertainty in projections of wave climate. However, output from recent high resolution simulations (~0.25 degree) of atmospheric circulation shows considerable improvement in the model's ability to simulate tropical cyclones. In order to investigate the importance of this issue on projections of waves, we present results of the analysis of wave climate in the North Atlantic, by forcing the global wave model, Wavewatch III, with both low and high resolution output from the Community Atmosphere Model 5.1, under atmospheric conditions of both the early 1990s, and conditions with a 2 degree increase in sea surface temperature and increased atmospheric CO2. Extremes of the wave climatology in the North Atlantic are examined and the consequences for the U.S. eastern seaboard are discussed.

  16. Impact of the atmospheric climate modes on wave climate in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Asensio, Adrián; Tsimplis, Michael N.; Marcos, Marta; Feng, Xiangbo; Gomis, Damià; Jordà, Gabriel; Josey, Simon

    2014-05-01

    This study establishes the relationships between the mean modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and present wave climate. The modes considered, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), the East Atlantic Western Russian pattern (EA/WR) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCAN), are obtained from the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre. The wave data sets used consist of buoy records and two high-resolution simulations of significant wave height (SWH), mean wave period (MWP) and mean wave direction (MWD) forced with ERA-40 (1958-2002) and ERA-INTERIM (1989-2008) wind fields. The results show the winter impact of each mode on wave parameters which are discussed regionally. The NAO and EA pattern increase winter SWH up to 1 m per unit index at the Scottish and Spanish coasts, respectively, during their positive phase; while EA pattern causes clockwise changes of winter MWD up to more than 60 degrees per unit index at the Bay of Biscay during its negative phase. EA/WR and SCAN patterns have a weaker impact.

  17. North Atlantic Climate Variability. An Oceanographers's Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Visbeck, M.

    Much of the interannual to decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is strongly linked to changes in the atmospheric forcing. The dominant mode of Atmospheric Variability is associated with changes in the strength and location of the westerly winds, a mode which is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation. The oceans response can be divided into three related categories. First there are changes in the upper ocean transports (Ekman transport) which directly alter the oceans heat transport (fast re- sponse) and because of changes in the planetary vorticity balance generate Rossby and Kelvin waves which then establish a new balanced state (slow response). Sec- ondly changes in the air-sea fluxes by a combination of variable atmospheric advection (wind vector) and efficiency of exchange (wind speed) perturb the upper ocean heat content. Part of that signal is then advected in regions of large mean ocean currents. Finally changes of the surface ocean density can alter the amount and type of newly formed water masses. Thus the characteristics and types of deep water vary possibly altering the rate of the ocean overturning. Specifically I will review recent findings about the oceans response to NAO forcing and the associated propagation of upper ocean heat content anomalies. I will discuss observations of decadal salinity variations in the Labrador Sea. and finally touch upon how a simple ecosystem is effected by the above.

  18. Mid-Atlantic Regional Wind Energy Institute

    SciTech Connect

    Courtney Lane

    2011-12-20

    As the Department of Energy stated in its 20% Wind Energy by 2030 report, there will need to be enhanced outreach efforts on a national, state, regional, and local level to communicate wind development opportunities, benefits and challenges to a diverse set of stakeholders. To help address this need, PennFuture was awarded funding to create the Mid-Atlantic Regional Wind Energy Institute to provide general education and outreach on wind energy development across Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Over the course of the two-year grant period, PennFuture used its expertise on wind energy policy and development in Pennsylvania and expanded it to other states in the Mid-Atlantic region. PennFuture accomplished this through reaching out and establishing connections with policy makers, local environmental groups, health and economic development organizations, and educational institutions and wind energy developers throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. PennFuture conducted two regional wind educational forums that brought together wind industry representatives and public interest organizations from across the region to discuss and address wind development in the Mid-Atlantic region. PennFuture developed the agenda and speakers in collaboration with experts on the ground in each state to help determine the critical issue to wind energy in each location. The sessions focused on topics ranging from the basics of wind development; model ordinance and tax issues; anti-wind arguments and counter points; wildlife issues and coalition building. In addition to in-person events, PennFuture held three webinars on (1) Generating Jobs with Wind Energy; (2) Reviving American Manufacturing with Wind Power; and (3) Wind and Transmission. PennFuture also created a web page for the institute (http://www.midatlanticwind.org) that contains an online database of fact sheets, research reports, sample advocacy letters, top anti-wind claims and information on how to

  19. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

    PubMed

    Keenlyside, N S; Latif, M; Jungclaus, J; Kornblueh, L; Roeckner, E

    2008-05-01

    The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.

  20. Cyclic growth in Atlantic region continental crust

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodwin, A. M.

    1986-01-01

    Atlantic region continental crust evolved in successive stages under the influence of regular, approximately 400 Ma-long tectonic cycles. Data point to a variety of operative tectonic processes ranging from widespread ocean floor consumption (Wilson cycle) to entirely ensialic (Ampferer-style subduction or simple crustal attenuation-compression). Different processes may have operated concurrently in some or different belts. Resolving this remains the major challenge.

  1. Northern tropical Atlantic climate since late Medieval times from Northern Caribbean coral geochemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Paleoclimate reconstructions of different global climate modes over the last 1000 years provide the basis for testing the relative roles of forced and unforced variability climate system, which can help us improve projections of future climate change. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) has been characterized by a combination of persistent La Niña-like conditions, a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO), and increased Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The northern tropical Atlantic is sensitive to each of these climate patterns, but not all of them have the same regional fingerprint in the modern northern tropical Atlantic. The relative influence of different processes related to these climate patterns can help us better understand regional responses to climate change. The regional response of the northern tropical Atlantic is important because the tropical Atlantic Ocean is a large source of heat and moisture to the global climate system that can feedback onto global climate patterns. This study presents new coral Sr/Ca and δ18O data from the northern tropical Atlantic (Anegada, British Virgin Islands). Comparison of the sub-fossil corals that grew during the 13th and 14th Centuries with modern coral geochemical data from this site indicates relatively cooler mean conditions with a decrease in the oxygen isotopic composition of the water consistent with lower salinities. Similar average annual cycles between modern and sub-fossil Sr/Ca indicate no change in seasonal temperature range, but a difference in the relative phasing of the δ18O seasonal cycles indicates that the fresher mean conditions may be due to a more northerly position of the regional salinity front. This localized response is consistent with some, but not all of the expected regional responses to a La Niña-like state, a +NAO state, and increased AMOC. Understanding these differences can provide insight into the relative importance of advection versus surface fluxes for

  2. Late Holocene climate change in the North Atlantic and equatorial Africa: Millennial-scale ITCZ migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russell, James M.; Johnson, Thomas C.

    2005-09-01

    Climate proxy data and numerical models suggest that latitudinal displacements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) occur during millennial-scale cold events in the North Atlantic region, but the potential effects of these ITCZ movements on the climate of equatorial regions are unclear. Here we present a 5400-year geochemical record of rainfall and drought from Lake Edward in equatorial Africa. We observe a non-linear correlation in which drought in equatorial Africa occurs during both cold and warm extremes in the North Atlantic's 1500-year quasi-cycle. We propose that this relationship occurs due to northward/southward displacement of the ITCZ from its equatorial mean position during warm/cold events. Our results show that millennial-scale high-latitude climate events are linked to changes in equatorial terrestrial climate even during the late Holocene and suggest important constraints on the mechanisms linking tropical and extratropical climate variability.

  3. Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations.

    PubMed

    Mills, Katherine E; Pershing, Andrew J; Sheehan, Timothy F; Mountain, David

    2013-10-01

    North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations.

  4. The potential role of the thermohaline circulation in 20th century North Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delworth, T. L.

    2002-05-01

    Areal mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the North Atlantic are characterized by substantial multidecadal fluctuations during the 20th century. A potential contributing mechanism to this variability is identified using an ensemble of coupled ocean-atmosphere integrations. One ensemble member produces a time series of areal mean SSTs which resembles the observed SSTs, and is used as a surrogate for the real climate system to probe potential mechanisms of Atlantic variability. It is shown that multidecadal fluctuations of the thermohaline circulation (THC) contribute substantially to the simulated multidecadal SST fluctuations. Additional experiments demonstrate that multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation are an important influence on the simulated THC by modulating the surface buoyancy flux over oceanic convective regions in the subpolar North Atlantic. Further, additional experiments suggest that such THC fluctuations may have some predictability on decadal timescales. The existence of such multidecadal variability has important implications for the detection of climate change.

  5. Carbon uptake sensitivity of the North Atlantic to climate change: A model study with the Bergen Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goris, Nadine; Heinze, Christoph; Tjiputra, Jerry; Schwinger, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    The efficiency of the world's oceans to take up carbon is expected to decrease with ongoing climate change, thereby increasing the atmospheric burden of carbon. Here, the North Atlantic is a region of special interest as it is one of the most important oceanic carbon sinks, featuring an exceptionally high column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Several model studies have identified the carbon uptake of the North Atlantic as highly sensitive to climate change, but these studies are mostly global studies and are not concerned with a detailed attribution of the underlying mechanisms and their regional differences within the North Atlantic. Yet, quantifying the climate change induced CO2-uptake variability in the North Atlantic and identifying its main drivers is of high relevance for improving climate projections. In order to assess and understand the climate sensitivity of the CO2 uptake of the North Atlantic, we investigate the differences between two simulations (denoted as simulation COU and simulation BGC) carried out with the Bergen Earth System Model (BCM-C). While simulation COU features rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (based on observed records for 1850-1999 and the IPCC SRES-A2 scenario for 2000-2099) for radiation code and carbon fluxes, simulation BGC uses rising atmospheric concentrations only for the calculation of the carbon fluxes. The differences between those simulations identify climate induced changes. Our analysis confirms the important role of the North Atlantic for carbon uptake and demonstrates that this region is most sensitive to climate change (in comparison to other oceanic regions as defined in Tjiputra et al., 2010). We furthermore identify substantially different responses to climate change in different parts of the North Atlantic. Based on these differing responses, we divide the North Atlantic into 3 regions, namely the subpolar gyre region (SPG), the high latitude region (HL) and the rest of the North Atlantic (rNAT*, covering

  6. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  7. Surface Temperature Trends in the Arctic Atlantic Region Over the Last 2,000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korhola, A.; Hanhijarvi, S.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset of the recent warming trend.

  8. Interglacial Climate Variability in the Mid-Latitude North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, M. R.; Farmer, E. J.

    2009-04-01

    It is widely believed that the last interglacial period had significantly elevated temperatures relative to the Holocene, and sea levels were around 6m above the modern level due to the partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. A pattern of enhanced peak interglacial warmth is particularly evident in the Arctic region, but these differences are thought to be significant at a wider scale as global mean surface temperatures were raised by around +2°C (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2006). Elevated last interglacial temperatures are likewise evident in the deep ocean. The positive temperature anomalies and changes in ocean circulation patterns have largely been ascribed to differences in the distribution of insolation. In this study we use high resolution records of last interglacial climate to examine the extent of variability in the subpolar North Atlantic, corresponding to the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e interval. Sea surface temperature (SST) estimates are calculated using a variety of planktonic foraminiferal transfer functions, based on faunal assemblage counts, which together with stable isotope and ice rafted debris (IRD) data are used to reconstruct surface hydrography. Benthic stable isotope data provide stratigraphic control and allow us to assess the relative dominance of northern waters of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in comparison to southern source waters such as the Antarctic Bottom Water. These records provide a detailed picture of climate variability for the period from 65 to 140 ka (approximately from the end of MIS 6 to early MIS 4). Last Interglacial temperature estimates also are compared to the previous and subsequent periods of interglacial warmth to assess the scale and extent of regional variability within the surface ocean environment. Our results highlight two features of particular interest: the internal variability of the MIS 5e period and the pronounced climate fluctuations during the MIS 5

  9. Sub-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability in observations and the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reintges, Annika; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2016-07-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic sector. The corresponding index varies on a wide range of timescales, from days and months to decades and beyond. Sub-decadal NAO variability has been well documented, but the underlying mechanism is still under discussion. Other indices of North Atlantic sector climate variability such as indices of sea surface and surface air temperature or Arctic sea ice extent also exhibit pronounced sub-decadal variability. Here, we use sea surface temperature and sea level pressure observations, and the Kiel Climate Model to investigate the dynamics of the sub-decadal NAO variability. The sub-decadal NAO variability is suggested to originate from dynamical large-scale air-sea interactions. The adjustment of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to previous surface heat flux variability provides the memory of the coupled mode. The results stress the role of coupled feedbacks in generating sub-decadal North Atlantic sector climate variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability in that region.

  10. Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, H.J.; Chandler, M.A.; Robinson, M.M.

    2009-01-01

    The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

  11. Patagonian and southern South Atlantic view of Holocene climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Strelin, J. A.; Denton, G. H.; Anderson, R. F.; Vandergoes, M. J.; Finkel, R. C.; Schwartz, R.; Travis, S. G.; Garcia, J. L.; Martini, M. A.; Nielsen, S. H. H.

    2016-06-01

    We present a comprehensive 10Be chronology for Holocene moraines in the Lago Argentino basin, on the east side of the South Patagonian Icefield. We focus on three different areas, where prior studies show ample glacier moraine records exist because they were formed by outlet glaciers sensitive to climate change. The 10Be dated records are from the Lago Pearson, Herminita Península-Brazo Upsala, and Lago Frías areas, which span a distance of almost 100 km adjacent to the modern Icefield. New 10Be ages show that expanded glaciers and moraine building events occurred at least at 6120 ± 390 (n = 13), 4450 ± 220 (n = 7), 1450 or 1410 ± 110 (n = 18), 360 ± 30 (n = 5), and 240 ± 20 (n = 8) years ago. Furthermore, other less well-dated glacier expansions of the Upsala Glacier occurred between ~1400 and ∼1000 and ∼2300 and ∼2000 years ago. The most extensive glaciers occurred over the interval from ∼6100 to ∼4500 years ago, and their margins over the last ∼600 years were well within and lower than those in the middle Holocene. The 10Be ages agree with 14C-limiting data for the glacier histories in this area. We then link southern South American, adjacent South Atlantic, and other Southern Hemisphere records to elucidate broader regional patterns of climate and their possible causes. In the early Holocene, a far southward position of the westerly winds fostered warmth, small Patagonian glaciers, and reduced sea ice coverage over the South Atlantic. Although we infer a pronounced southward displacement of the westerlies during the early Holocene, these conditions did not occur throughout the southern mid-high latitudes, an important exception being over the southwest Pacific sector. Subsequently, a northward locus and/or expansion of the winds over the Patagonia-South Atlantic sector promoted the largest glaciers between ∼6100 and ∼4500 years ago and greatest sea ice coverage. Over the last few millennia, the South Patagonian Icefield has experienced

  12. Using Three Global Climate Indices to Forecast Hurricane Activity in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giovannettone, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    Quantitative relationships between global climate indices and hurricane activity in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans have not been widely studied. A few studies have explored qualitative relationships between hurricane activity and such climate indices as the North Atlantic Oscillation and sea-surface temperatures, among others. The current work presents the most comprehensive analysis of the potential relationships between 39 different climate indices and hurricane activity using regression and frequency analysis. Attempts are made to develop statistical relationships between any one of these indices and hurricane activity in the eastern and western Pacific as well as the Atlantic Oceans. There were three climate indices, one per region, showing significantly higher correlation in each region. They were the ENSO Precipitation Index (EPI) in the western Pacific, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) in the eastern Pacific, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) in the Atlantic. The linear relationships between each index and hurricane numbers resulted in Pearson-R values of near 0.65 or greater. In addition, the Madden-Julian Oscillation showed some correlation with hurricane activity in each region and therefore was included in the analysis. Several important results were found during these analyses. For instance, the relationship between the AMM index and hurricane numbers in the Atlantic Ocean revealed that the average July - October AMM index was greater than -0.5 within a range of -5.0 to 5.0 for years within the last 70 years when the number of hurricanes during that same period was greater than 7. It is also shown that the number of hurricanes expected to be exceeded or not exceeded at frequencies of 50- to 100-years, for example, varies substantially depending on the range of AMM index values being analyzed. Similar results are shown for the eastern and western Pacific Ocean as well. Such relationships provide forecasters with a simple tool using only

  13. Regional Model Simulations of Cyclones Over The North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keup-Thiel, E.; Klepp, C.; Raschke, E.; Rockel, B.

    Regional model simulations have been carried out for selected cyclones to study wa- ter cycle components over the North Atlantic Ocean. The simulations have been per- formed with the regional model REMO which is based in the dynamical part on the regional weather forecast model system EM/DM of the German Weather Service and on the physical parameterizations of the climate model ECHAM4. Case studies have been done for special cyclones in January/February 1997. For these investigations the regional model REMO has been used with a horizontal resolution of 1/6 degrees, a vertical resolution on 20 levels and a timestep of 60 seconds. As input at the bound- aries and for initialization ECMWF-Analysis fields in T213 resolution were available. Water cycle components such as cloud liquid water content and precipitation are very important for climate simulations and weather forecasts. The uncertainties associated with quantitative estimates of the water cycle components are highlighted by a com- parison of satellite data with simulations of cyclones over the North Atlantic with the regional model REMO. The validation of model simulations with satellite data from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) clearly show the deficiencies of water cycle components. In this context several case studies will be presented and discussed. The vertically integrated water vapor of the regional model is in good agreement with the satellite data. In contrast to that the high precipitation rate in the cold air outbreak on the backside of the cold front derived from satellite data is generally underesti- mated by the regional model. Although the cold front precipitation itself and a small subsidence zone afterwards is well simulated. In line with this, the liquid water content is to low in the cold air outbreak but reasonable at the cold front itself.

  14. Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Wei; Lee, June-Yi; Lu, Riyu; Dong, Buwen; Ha, Kyung-Ja

    2015-10-01

    The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

  15. Marine and terrestrial biotic response to climate variability across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary in the Mid-Atlantic region, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willard, D. A.; Aleman, W.; Edwards, L. E.; Farmer, J. R.; Self-Trail, J.

    2009-12-01

    Late Paleocene to early Eocene continental margin sediments provide an opportunity to examine rates and patterns of change in terrestrial and marine ecoystems during an interval of rapid global warming and increasing atmospheric carbon concentrations. We present Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) multiproxy data from a core obtained in 2007 from South Dover Bridge, Talbot County, Maryland. In it, we identified an apparently conformable Paleocene-Eocene contact at the Aquia Formation/Marlboro Clay boundary based on nannofossil, dinocyst, and pollen assemblages. A CaCO3 dissolution zone persists through the lower 91 cm of the Marlboro Clay. Terrestrial palynomorph concentration increases sharply at the base (<10 cm) of the dissolution zone, which is characterized by dominance (40-50%) of fern spores and distinctive palynofacies. Specimens of the dinocyst marker species Apectodinium augustum are present but not abundant. Planktic and benthic foraminifers and nannofossils are absent in the dissolution zone, except for distinct and reduced assemblages at 54 cm above the basal Marlboro contact. Marlboro Clay sediment above the dissolution zone contains a unique nannofossil assemblage that is restricted to this unit and is indicative of the PETM both regionally and globally. The re-occurrence of calcareous nannofossil species in the upper Marlboro that disappeared at the base of the dissolution zone suggests a return to normal oceanic conditions. Comparison of multi-proxy data from this high-sedimentation site with other PETM records is important to improve our understanding of the pattern and timing of vegetation, phytoplankton, and marine responses to climate variability associated with the PETM, both regionally and globally.

  16. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  17. North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate.

    PubMed

    Mohtadi, Mahyar; Prange, Matthias; Oppo, Delia W; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Merkel, Ute; Zhang, Xiao; Steinke, Stephan; Lückge, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    The response of the tropical climate in the Indian Ocean realm to abrupt climate change events in the North Atlantic Ocean is contentious. Repositioning of the intertropical convergence zone is thought to have been responsible for changes in tropical hydroclimate during North Atlantic cold spells, but the dearth of high-resolution records outside the monsoon realm in the Indian Ocean precludes a full understanding of this remote relationship and its underlying mechanisms. Here we show that slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas stadial affected the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate through changes to the Hadley circulation including a southward shift in the rising branch (the intertropical convergence zone) and an overall weakening over the southern Indian Ocean. Our results are based on new, high-resolution sea surface temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records of well-dated sedimentary archives from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 45,000 years, combined with climate model simulations of Atlantic circulation slowdown under Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 boundary conditions. Similar conditions in the east and west of the basin rule out a zonal dipole structure as the dominant forcing of the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate of millennial-scale events. Results from our simulations and proxy data suggest dry conditions in the northern Indian Ocean realm and wet and warm conditions in the southern realm during North Atlantic cold spells. PMID:24784218

  18. North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate.

    PubMed

    Mohtadi, Mahyar; Prange, Matthias; Oppo, Delia W; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Merkel, Ute; Zhang, Xiao; Steinke, Stephan; Lückge, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    The response of the tropical climate in the Indian Ocean realm to abrupt climate change events in the North Atlantic Ocean is contentious. Repositioning of the intertropical convergence zone is thought to have been responsible for changes in tropical hydroclimate during North Atlantic cold spells, but the dearth of high-resolution records outside the monsoon realm in the Indian Ocean precludes a full understanding of this remote relationship and its underlying mechanisms. Here we show that slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas stadial affected the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate through changes to the Hadley circulation including a southward shift in the rising branch (the intertropical convergence zone) and an overall weakening over the southern Indian Ocean. Our results are based on new, high-resolution sea surface temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records of well-dated sedimentary archives from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 45,000 years, combined with climate model simulations of Atlantic circulation slowdown under Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 boundary conditions. Similar conditions in the east and west of the basin rule out a zonal dipole structure as the dominant forcing of the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate of millennial-scale events. Results from our simulations and proxy data suggest dry conditions in the northern Indian Ocean realm and wet and warm conditions in the southern realm during North Atlantic cold spells.

  19. Quaternary North Atlantic Surface Paleoceanography in Regions of Potential Deep-water Formation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruddiman, W. F.

    1984-01-01

    At the time scale of the Quaternary climate cycles, the sites of formation of North Atlantic Deep Water are not known. The interglacial extreme is presumably exemplified by the modern regions; the Norwegian, Greenland and Labrador Seas. During the major glacial-age coolings in the North Atlantic, the sites may have shifted well to the south, perhaps as far as the limit of the polar front at 40 to 50 N. Still other sites may have been important during intermediate climatic conditions. Because of the close coupling of high-latitude surface waters to North Atlantic Deep Water in the modern ocean, the history of sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillations across the high-latitude North Atlantic is relevant to an understanding of deep-water formation on the longer time scales.

  20. Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations.

    PubMed

    McCarthy, Gerard D; Haigh, Ivan D; Hirschi, Joël J-M; Grist, Jeremy P; Smeed, David A

    2015-05-28

    Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

  1. Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarthy, Gerard D.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Hirschi, Joël J.-M.; Grist, Jeremy P.; Smeed, David A.

    2015-05-01

    Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

  2. INDICATORS OF CHANGE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERSHEDS AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE IN UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric temperature in the past century relative to the preceding millennium strongly suggests that we are in a period of rapid global climate change. The mid-Atlantic region is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which...

  3. CARICOF - The Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are viewed as a critical building block in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The GFCS seeks to extend RCOFs to all vulnerable regions of the world such as the Caribbean, of which the entire population is exposed to water- and heat-related natural hazards. An RCOF is initially intended to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community. A focus is given on variations in climate conditions on a seasonal timescale. In this view, the relevance of a Caribbean RCOF (CARICOF) is the following: while the seasonality of the climate in the Caribbean has been well documented, major gaps in knowledge exist in terms of the drivers in the shifts of amplitude and phase of seasons (as evidenced from the worst region-wide drought period in recent history during 2009-2010). To address those gaps, CARICOF has brought together National Weather Services (NWSs) from 18 territories under the coordination of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), to produce region-wide, consensus, seasonal climate outlooks since March 2012. These outlooks include tercile rainfall forecasts, sea and air surface temperature forecasts as well as the likely evolution of the drivers of seasonal climate variability in the region, being amongst others the El Niño Southern Oscillation or tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea temperatures. Forecasts for both the national-scale forecasts made by the NWSs and CIMH's regional-scale forecast amalgamate output from several forecasting tools. These currently include: (1) statistical models such as Canonical Correlation Analysis run with the Climate Predictability Tool, providing tercile rainfall forecasts at weather station scale; (2) a global outlooks published by the WMO appointed Global Producing

  4. 77 FR 35357 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Commercial Atlantic Region Non-Sandbar Large Coastal Shark...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-13

    ...-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (16 U.S.C. 1801 et seq.). On January 24, 2012 (77 FR 3393... rule implementing the Atlantic HMS electronic dealer ] reporting system (76 FR 37750; June 28, 2011) or...; Commercial Atlantic Region Non-Sandbar Large Coastal Shark Fishery Opening Date AGENCY: National...

  5. The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lim, Young-Kwon

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

  6. Salt transport in the Subpolar Gyre amplifies North Atlantic climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Born, Andreas; Stocker, Thomas F.; Britt Sandø, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Transport of salt in the Irminger Current, the northern branch of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre coupling the eastern and western subpolar North Atlantic, plays an important role for climate variability across a wide range of time scales. High-resolution ocean modeling and observations indicate that salinities in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic decrease with enhanced circulation of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. This has led to the perception that a stronger SPG also transports less salt westward, which would weaken deep convection in the Labrador Sea and thus the gyre itself. In this study, we analyze a regional ocean model and a comprehensive global coupled climate model, and show that a stronger SPG transports more salt in the Irminger Current irrespective of lower salinities in its source region. The additional salt converges in the Labrador Sea and the Irminger Basin by eddy transports, increases surface salinity in the western SPG, and favors more intense deep convection. This is part of a positive feedback mechanism with large implications for climate variability and predictability.

  7. Building International Research Partnerships in the North Atlantic-Arctic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benway, Heather M.; Hofmann, Eileen; St. John, Michael

    2014-09-01

    The North Atlantic-Arctic region, which is critical to the health and socioeconomic well being of North America and Europe, is susceptible to climate-driven changes in circulation, biogeochemistry, and marine ecosystems. The need for strong investment in the study of biogeochemical and ecosystem processes and interactions with physical processes over a range of time and space scales in this region was clearly stated in the 2013 Galway Declaration, an intergovernmental statement on Atlantic Ocean cooperation (http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-459_en.htm). Subsequently, a workshop was held to bring together researchers from the United States, Canada, and Europe with expertise across multiple disciplines to discuss an international research initiative focused on key features, processes, and ecosystem services (e.g., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, spring bloom dynamics, fisheries, etc.) and associated sensitivities to climate changes.

  8. North Atlantic overturning and climate response to meltwater forcing during the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muschitiello, Francesco; Dokken, Trond; Väliranta, Minna; Björck, Svante; Davies, Siwan; Luoto, Tomi; Schenk, Frederik; Smittenberg, Rienk; Reimer, Paula; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    The last deglaciation (˜18-11 kyr BP) is an important analog to investigate the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to future ice-sheet melting and its impact on regional climate change. In this study we present synchronised terrestrial and marine proxy records that provide insight into freshwater run-off and climate variability in the eastern North Atlantic during the last deglaciation. The reconstructions show that atmospheric circulation rather than freshwater forcing primarily controls the stability of the AMOC. However, catastrophic meltwater drainage from the Scandinavian continent may have solicited complex feedbacks necessary to account for the rapid large-scale hydro-climate shifts and the major weakening of the overturning circulation system at the onset of the Younger Dryas stadial.

  9. Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Men, Guang; Wan, Xiuquan; Liu, Zedong

    2016-10-01

    Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.

  10. The Relationship between Atlantic Overturning and Climate in the Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howe, J. N. W.; Piotrowski, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation play an important role in modulating global climate by controlling northward heat transport in the surface ocean and carbon storage in the deep ocean. We present a new high resolution 1.2 Myr record of neodymium isotopes (ɛNd) - a proxy for water mass mixing - measured on foraminifera and fish debris from site ODP 929 [6.0°N, 43.7°W, 4356 m] on the Ceara Rise in the western equatorial Atlantic Ocean. This record reveals a fundamental step-change in the nature of glacial Atlantic overturning across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition as well as providing new insight into the relationship between ocean circulation and greenhouse gas forcing during the period known as the "lukewarm" interglacials.Comparison with benthic foraminiferal carbon isotopes from the same core reveals periods of significant decoupling between ɛNd and δ13C, demonstrating that deep Atlantic water mass mixing proportions and nutrient chemistry can vary independently of one another. In contrast, comparison of the ɛNd record with benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes reveals a tight coupling, exhibiting the control of Northern Hemisphere climate on both ice volume and Atlantic overturning. The high resolution of the records allows cross spectral analysis of the phasing between authigenic ɛNd and both benthic foraminiferal δ13C and δ18O. This reveals that the different proxy records are coherent at time periods of 100-, 40- and 23-kyr which correlate with orbital forcing. However, the changes in each variable at these periods are not always in phase, indicating that the proxies exhibit different temporal responses to climatic forcings.

  11. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  12. The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens Atlantic forest tiger moths.

    PubMed

    Ferro, Viviane G; Lemes, Priscila; Melo, Adriano S; Loyola, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Climate change leads to species' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future. PMID:25229422

  13. The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens Atlantic forest tiger moths.

    PubMed

    Ferro, Viviane G; Lemes, Priscila; Melo, Adriano S; Loyola, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Climate change leads to species' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future.

  14. Linking North Atlantic Teleconnections to Latitudinal Variability of Wave Climate Along the North American Atlantic Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provancha, C.; Adams, P. N.; Hegermiller, C.; Storlazzi, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Shoreline change via coastal erosion and accretion is largely influenced by variations in ocean wave climate. Identifying the sources of these variations is challenging because the timing of wave energy delivery varies over multiple timescales within ocean basins. We present the results of an investigation of USACE Wave Information Studies hindcast hourly wave heights, periods, and directions along the North American Atlantic coast from 1980-2012, designed to explore links between wave climate and teleconnection patterns. Trends in median and extreme significant wave heights (SWHs) demonstrate that mean monthly SWHs increased from 1 to 5 cm/yr along the roughly 3000 km reach of study area, with changes in hurricane season waves appearing to be most influential in producing the overall trends. Distributions of SWHs categorized by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, show that positive-period NAO SWHs are greater than negative-period NAO SWHs along the entire eastern seaboard (25°N to 45°N). The most prominent wave direction off Cape Cod, MA during positive-period NAO is approximately 105°, as compared to approximately 75° during negative-period NAO. Prominent wave directions between Cape Canaveral, FL, and Savannah, GA exhibit a similar shift but during opposite phases of the NAO. The results of this analysis suggest that the atmosphere-ocean interactions associated with contrasting NAO phases can significantly change the wave climate observed offshore along the North American Atlantic coast, altering alongshore wave energy fluxes and sediment transport patterns along the coast.

  15. Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Booth, Ben B B; Dunstone, Nick J; Halloran, Paul R; Andrews, Timothy; Bellouin, Nicolas

    2012-04-04

    Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

  16. Holocene climate changes in the Cape Hatteras region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naughton, F.; Keigwin, L. D.; Peteet, D. M.; Desprat, S.; Oliveira, D.; Abrantes, F.

    2013-12-01

    In the last century many studies have been done in various naturally occurring archives to understand the nature, timing and causes of Holocene natural climate oscillations. Most of the available Holocene climatic reconstructions are however, not based on a direct comparison of terrestrial, marine and ice records making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the interactions of the atmosphere-ocean-land systems and their relationship in global climate variability. Few studies based on direct sea land comparison have been reported for some key areas of the eastern North Atlantic but almost none in the western North Atlantic. Here we present a direct comparison between terrestrial (pollen) and marine (planktonic δ18O) proxies from a well dated (ten AMS 14C dates on planktonic foraminifera and seaweed) slope core (KNR 178-2 JPC 32), retrieved close to Cape Hatteras (35°58.58'N, 74°42.77'W, 1006 m). This study provides information on eastern North America vegetation and on the northwestern Atlantic sea surface response to both Holocene long-term and rapid climate changes. Five intervals, marked mainly by changes in temperate trees are associated with long term climate shifts (12000-9150 ka; 9150-7250 ka; 7250-5350 ka; 5350-2800 ka; 2800-700 ka). Over these intervals, several abrupt cooling events are noted, as well as several indications of shifts in moisture. The comparison of our data with those available and unpublished records from several key sites of the North Atlantic region, gives insights into the nature, timing and causes of Holocene climate oscillations in the North Atlantic region and in particular off Cape Hatteras.

  17. West African Climate and Linkages with the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Basin and Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paz, S.; Tourre, Y. M.

    2010-09-01

    large-scale and multi-temporal circulation, with SLP (SST) ‘footprints' over the Atlantic Ocean (AMO) and the eastern Mediterranean (NAWA) climate, and their linkages with Sahelian climate variability. Winter AMO can thus be viewed as a valuable predictors for Sahel rainfall intensity. The AMO is expected to exhibit a predominantly positive phase for the upcoming decades which could enhance Sahelian rainfall during that period. Within the climate change context, the above results are important in regions where public health and socio-economical issues are highly dependent on multi-temporal climate variability. It is hoped that indices presented here can be used as predictors by modelers and decision-makers to improve mitigation of regional multi-disciplinary impacts from climate variability and contribute to early warning systems (EWS).

  18. The effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Iraqi climate 1982-2000

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khidher, Salar Ali; Pilesjö, Petter

    2015-11-01

    In this study, we have analyzed the spatial and temporal correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the climate in Iraq, with a focus on precipitation, temperature, and number of Mediterranean cyclones. It was found that the influence of the NAO varies per climate indicator. For example, the influence is greater on precipitation than on temperature. One conclusion of the study is that the mean annual precipitation in Iraq increases during a negative phase of the NAO and decreases during a positive phase. In addition, the correlation between NAO and precipitation is more pronounced in the south of the country than in the middle and northern regions.

  19. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Beaugrand, Grégory; Edwards, Martin; Brander, Keith; Luczak, Christophe; Ibanez, Frederic

    2008-11-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.

  20. Multidecadal Atlantic climate variability and its impact on marine pelagic communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Victoria; Edwards, Martin; Olhede, Sofia C.

    2014-05-01

    A large scale analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) and climate variability over the North Atlantic and its interactions with plankton over the North East Atlantic was carried out to better understand what drives both temperature and species abundance. The spatio-temporal pattern of SST was found to correspond to known climate indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The spatial influence of these indices is heterogeneous. Although the AMO is present across all regions, it is most strongly represented in the SST signal in the subpolar gyre region. The NAO instead is strongly weighted in the North Sea and the pattern of its influence is oscillatory in space with a wavelength of approximately 6000 km. Natural oscillations might obscure the influence of climate change effects, making it difficult to determine how much of the variation is attributable to longer term trends. In order to separate the influences of different climate signals the SST signals were decomposed in to spatial and temporal components using principal component analysis (PCA). A similar analysis is carried out on various indicator species of plankton: Calanus finmarchicus, Phytoplankton Colour Index and total copepod abundance, as well as phytoplankton and zooplankton communities. By comparing the two outputs it is apparent that the dominant driver is the recent warming trend, which has a negative influence on C. finmarchicus and total copepods, but has a positive one on phytoplankton colour. However natural oscillations also influence the abundance of plankton, in particular the AMO is a driver of diatom abundance. Fourier principal component analysis, an approach which is novel in terms of the ecological data, was used to analyse the behaviour of various communities averaged over space. The zooplankton community is found to be primarily influenced by climate warming trends. The analysis provides

  1. Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years.

    PubMed

    Mann, Michael E; Woodruff, Jonathan D; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Zhang, Zhihua

    2009-08-13

    Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here we place recent activity in a longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical cyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate uses a previously published statistical model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity driven by proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during medieval times (around ad 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The statistical model indicates that the medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results from the reinforcing effects of La-Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.

  2. Barrier layers of the Atlantic warm pool: Formation mechanism and influence on weather and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balaguru, Karthik

    The aim of this research is to study the formation mechanism of Barrier Layers (BL) in the western tropical Atlantic and their influence on the tropical Atlantic climate at both short and long timescales. Many Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) tend to overestimate the salinity in the Atlantic warm pool or the Northwestern Tropical Atlantic (NWTA) and underestimate the surface salinity in the subtropical salinity maxima region. Most of these models also suffer from a sea-surface temperature (SST) bias in the NWTA region, leading to suggestions that the upper ocean salinity stratification may need to be improved in order to improve the BL simulations and thus the SST through BL-SST-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) feedbacks. We used a CGCM to perform a set of idealized numerical experiments to understand the sensitivity of the BL and consequently SST in the NWTA region to freshwater flux and hence the upper ocean salinity stratification. We find that the BL of the western tropical Atlantic is quite sensitive to upper ocean salinity changes in the Amazon River discharge region and the subtropical salinity maxima region. The BL phenomenon is further manifested by the formation of winter temperature inversions in our model simulations. However, in the region of improved BL simulation, the SST response is not statistically significant. SST response to Tropical Cyclones (TCs) is studied for the Atlantic region using a high-resolution coupled regional climate model (CRCM) and observational data sets. The presence of a BL, defined as the layer below the mixed layer that separates the base of the isothermal layer from the base of the isohaline layer, is found to modulate the SST response. The amplitude of TC-induced surface cooling is reduced by more than 35% in the presence of a BL, as a consequence of the weak thermal stratification. Furthermore, in locations when the BL exhibits a temperature inversion, TC-induced mixing can result in weak surface warming

  3. Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kageyama, M.; Mignot, J.; Swingedouw, D.; Marzin, C.; Alkama, R.; Marti, O.

    2009-09-01

    Paleorecords from distant locations on the globe show rapid and large amplitude climate variations during the last glacial period. Here we study the global climatic response to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a potential explanation for these climate variations and their possible connections. We analyse three glacial simulations obtained with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model and characterised by different AMOC strengths (18, 15 and 2 Sv) resulting from successive ~0.1 Sv freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic. These AMOC states suggest the existence of a freshwater threshold for which the AMOC collapses. A weak (18 to 15 Sv) AMOC decrease results in a North Atlantic and European cooling. This cooling is not homogeneous, with even a slight warming over the Norwegian Sea. Convection in this area is active in both experiments, but surprisingly stronger in the 15 Sv simulation, which appears to be related to interactions with the atmospheric circulation and sea-ice cover. Far from the North Atlantic, the climatic response is not significant. The climate differences for an AMOC collapse (15 to 2 Sv) are much larger and of global extent. The timing of the climate response to this AMOC collapse suggests teleconnection mechanisms. Our analyses focus on the North Atlantic and surrounding regions, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian monsoon region. The North Atlantic cooling associated with the AMOC collapse induces a cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly centred over this region, which modulates the eastward advection of cold air over the Eurasian continent. This can explain why the cooling is not as strong over western Europe as over the North Atlantic. In the Tropics, the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone appears to be strongest over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific and results from an adjustment of the atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. Finally, the Indian monsoon

  4. Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Roebber, Paul

    2016-04-01

    We simulate the seasonal cycle of the Great Lakes' water temperature and lake ice using an idealized coupled lake-atmosphere-ice model. Under identical seasonally varying boundary conditions, this model exhibits more than one seasonally varying equilibrium solutions, which we associate with distinct regional climate regimes. Colder/warmer regimes are characterized by abundant/scarce amounts of wintertime ice and cooler/warmer summer temperatures, respectively. These regimes are also evident in the observations of the Great Lakes' climate variability over recent few decades, and are found to be most pronounced for Lake Superior, the deepest of the Great Lakes, consistent with model predictions. Multiple climate regimes of the Great Lakes also play a crucial role in the accelerated warming of the lakes relative to the surrounding land regions in response to larger-scale global warming. We discuss the physical origin and characteristics of multiple climate regimes over the lakes, as well as their implications for a longer-term regional climate variability.

  5. A century of Amazon burning driven by Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makou, M.; Thompson, L. G.; Davis, M. E.; Eglinton, T. I.

    2011-12-01

    Very little is known about annual burning trends in the Amazon Basin prior to remote sensing of fires beginning in the late 1970's. Fires reduce Amazon forest biomass and species richness, release pollutant aerosols, and impact the carbon cycle, compelling further investigation of fire-climate dynamics. We measured organic compounds derived from vegetation burning in ice core samples from the Quelccaya Ice Cap in Peru at better than annual resolution to reconstruct wet and dry season burning throughout the Twentieth Century. Variations in the abundance of methyl hexadecanoate, which is produced by thermal alteration of vascular plant alkanoic acids, were used as a proxy for past fire activity. Concentrations of this compound in Quelccaya ice varied strongly on seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales over the last 100 years, with high-amplitude dry season variability and muted, decadal-scale changes in wet season fire activity. Decade-long periods of repeatedly enhanced burning occurred during the 1930's and 1960's when dry season precipitation was perpetually reduced, as evidenced by low stages of the Rio Negro. These decadal trends suggest that changes in dry season precipitation drive fire activity in the western Amazon and highlight the potential of Amazon forests to undergo repeated strong burning. Fires occurred during years when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the north tropical Atlantic were elevated and the north-south tropical Atlantic SST gradient was enhanced; this SST pattern likely displaced the intertropical convergence zone northward, driving subsidence and drought in the western and southern Amazon basin. Thus, our novel ice core record suggests that Amazon forest fire activity during the Twentieth Century was driven primarily by Atlantic climate processes, and future forest health will depend heavily on the evolution of tropical climate.

  6. The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabbatelli, Thomas A.; Mann, Michael E.

    2007-09-01

    We analyzed annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts from 1871-2004, considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (August-October or `ASO') Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main development region (`MDR': 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted m = 15 ± 4 total named storms for the 2007 season.

  7. Multi-model ensemble analysis of Pacific and Atlantic SST variability in unperturbed climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zanchettin, D.; Bothe, O.; Rubino, A.; Jungclaus, J. H.

    2016-08-01

    We assess internally-generated climate variability expressed by a multi-model ensemble of unperturbed climate simulations. We focus on basin-scale annual-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from twenty multicentennial pre-industrial control simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Ensemble spatial patterns of regional modes of variability and ensemble (cross-)wavelet-based phase-frequency diagrams of corresponding paired indices summarize the ensemble characteristics of inter-basin and regional-to-global SST interactions on a broad range of timescales. Results reveal that tropical and North Pacific SSTs are a source of simulated interannual global SST variability. The North Atlantic-average SST fluctuates in rough co-phase with the global-average SST on multidecadal timescales, which makes it difficult to discern the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) signal from the global signal. The two leading modes of tropical and North Pacific SST variability converge towards co-phase in the multi-model ensemble, indicating that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) results from a combination of tropical and extra-tropical processes. No robust inter- or multi-decadal inter-basin SST interaction arises from our ensemble analysis between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, though specific phase-locked fluctuations occur between Pacific and Atlantic modes of SST variability in individual simulations and/or periods within individual simulations. The multidecadal modulation of PDO by the AMV identified in observations appears to be a recurrent but not typical feature of ensemble-simulated internal variability. Understanding the mechanism(s) and circumstances favoring such inter-basin SST phasing and related uncertainties in their simulated representation could help constraining uncertainty in decadal climate predictions.

  8. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  9. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-06-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  10. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  11. Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

    2016-04-01

    Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is

  12. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  13. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  14. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    PubMed Central

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  15. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  16. Pairwise comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last 2,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanhijärvi, Sami; Tingley, Martin P.; Korhola, Atte

    2013-10-01

    Existing multi-proxy climate reconstruction methods assume the suitably transformed proxy time series are linearly related to the target climate variable, which is likely a simplifying assumption for many proxy records. Furthermore, with a single exception, these methods face problems with varying temporal resolutions of the proxy data. Here we introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. The resulting unitless composite time series is subsequently calibrated to the instrumental record to provide an estimate of past climate. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset

  17. Climate history in the south Atlantic subtropical gyre over the last 4 Ma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wojcieszek, D. E.; Dekens, P. S.

    2010-12-01

    The early Pliocene (3-5 Ma) is the most recent time in the Earth’s history when climate was significantly warmer than today. Even though the climatic boundary conditions (i.e. incoming solar radiation, distribution of continents, atmospheric pCO2) were similar to today, the average global temperature was about 3-4°C warmer, ice sheets were smaller, and the sea level was about 35 m higher. Previous studies show that in the early Pliocene, in both Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, sea surface temperatures (SST) of the eastern equatorial and coastal upwelling regions were warmer than today (by ~2-9°C), while western equatorial warm pools had SST similar to today. As a consequence, zonal and meridional SST gradients were reduced. According to atmospheric modeling studies, the reduced gradients played a role in sustaining Pliocene warmth and the increasing gradients, caused by the cooling of the upwelling regions, favored the northern hemisphere glaciation. However, the lack of data from non-upwelling regions forces these models to interpolate SSTs based on the gradients in the modern ocean. This research is the first to provide data from a non-upwelling region in the south Atlantic subtropical gyre. We present G.sacculifer Mg/Ca and δ18O records at the ODP site 1264 (28.53°S; 2.85°E, 2505 m water depth), located on the Walvis Ridge in the south Atlantic subtropical gyre. The Mg/Ca SST record displays no long-term trend over the past 4 Ma. The south Atlantic subtropical gyre was not affected by the forcing that caused the 8-9°C cooling of the Benguela upwelling, as recorded at ODP sites 1082 and 1084. The difference between SST trends at ODP sites 1082 and 1084 and the ODP site 1264 indicate a significant change in SST gradients between south Atlantic subtropical gyre and the Benguela upwelling region. The complementary δ18O record will provide information about local salinity changes due to ice volume changes. The combined records will give us a thorough picture of

  18. Influences of North Atlantic climate variability on low-flows in the Connecticut River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinschneider, Scott; Brown, Casey

    2011-10-01

    SummaryConnections between summertime, ecologically relevant low-flow indicators and both winter and spring climate phenomena are explored for the Connecticut River Basin, with an emphasis on assessing forecast potential. Low-flow streamflow statistics deemed important for ecological health, including minimum 1-day mean flows, minimum 7-day mean flows, and monthly streamflow averages from June to September, are derived from 61 years of continuous, daily streamflow data at 15 United States Geological Survey streamflow gauging stations across the basin. Relationships between the ecological flow indicators with leading sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure are investigated using correlation and composite analysis. Results suggest lagged relationships of up to 5 months between summer streamflow and the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, springtime east coast pressure trough, and springtime North Atlantic Tripole. These climate states have been linked to shifts between zonal and meridonal airflow as well as sea-surface temperature anomalies off the coast of the eastern US, both of which have implications for the movement of moisture systems over the study region. This study suggests that residual influences on airflow and sea-surface temperature persist into the summer following these earlier climate states, influencing low-flow hydrology in the region. As eco-hydrologic flow targets often conflict with other stakeholder objectives within a watershed, reservoir operators may utilize such lagged teleconnection patterns to predict annual low-flow characteristics in the region and help negotiate tradeoffs between traditional water management objectives and those emphasizing ecological conservation.

  19. Tropical Rain Forest and Climate Dynamics of the Atlantic Lowland, Southern Brazil, during the Late Quaternary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behling, Hermann; Negrelle, Raquel R. B.

    2001-11-01

    Palynological analysis of a core from the Atlantic rain forest region in Brazil provides unprecedented insight into late Quaternary vegetational and climate dynamics within this southern tropical lowland. The 576-cm-long sediment core is from a former beach-ridge "valley," located 3 km inland from the Atlantic Ocean. Radio-carbon dates suggest that sediment deposition began prior to 35,000 14C yr B.P. Between ca. 37,500 and ca. 27,500 14C yr B.P. and during the last glacial maximum (LGM; ca. 27,500 to ca. 14,500 14C yr B.P.), the coastal rain forest was replaced by grassland and patches of cold-adapted forest. Tropical trees, such as Alchornea, Moraceae/Urticaceae, and Arecaceae, were almost completely absent during the LGM. Furthermore, their distributions were shifted at least 750 km further north, suggesting a cooling between 3°C and 7°C and a strengthening of Antarctic cold fronts during full-glacial times. A depauperate tropical rain forest developed as part of a successional sequence after ca. 12,300 14C yr B.P. There is no evidence that Araucaria trees occurred in the Atlantic lowland during glacial times. The rain forest was disturbed by marine incursions during the early Holocene period until ca. 6100 14C yr B.P., as indicated by the presence of microforaminifera. A closed Atlantic rain forest then developed at the study site.

  20. EXCHANGING AND INTEGRATING DATA FOR REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    To answer questions posed by the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAlA) regarding the health of estuaries in the coastal U.S. mid-Atlantic region, researchers need data from several databases, operated by different organizations in various formats for their own purposes. Analy...

  1. Causes of Ocean Surface temperature Changes in Atlantic andPacific Topical Cyclogenesis Regions

    SciTech Connect

    Santer, B.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.; Gleckler, P.J.; Bonfils, C.; Wehner, M.F.; AchutaRao, K.; Barnett, T.P.; Boyle, J.S.; Bruggemann, W.; Fiorino, M.; Gillett, N.; Hansen, J.E.; Jones, P.D.; Klein, S.A.; Meehl,G.A.; Raper, S.C.B.; Reynolds, R.W.; Stott, P.A.; Taylor, K.E.; Washington, W.M.

    2006-01-31

    Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32 to 0.67 C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system, even under conservative assumptions regarding the magnitude of this variability. Model simulations that include external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors are generally capable of replicating observed SST changes in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

  2. Influence of the North Atlantic on climate change in the Barents Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glok, Natalia; Alekseev, Genrikh; Smirnov, Aleksander; Vyasilova, Anastasia

    2015-04-01

    This study is based on the observations taken from the meteorological archives, satellite and historic visual observations of sea ice, global SST, data of water temperature in the upper layer on the section in the Barents Sea. For processing data was used factor analysis, calculation of correlation matrices with different delay between the Barents Sea and selected areas in North Atlantic. It is shown that the inflow of Atlantic water into the Barents Sea has a major influence on the climate of the region and its changes affect the variations of all climate characteristics. Decadal and interannual changes of air temperature in the Barents Sea are closely related (correlation over 0.8) with temperature of water, coming from the Norwegian Sea. The effect of these changes is seen in the air temperature in the Kara Sea. Atlantic water inflow especially impact on winter sea ice in the Barents Sea. The correlation between the average water temperature at section along the Kola meridian and sea ice extent in the Barents Sea in May reaches values of -0.86. To enhance the predictive capability established dependence, the study was extended to the area of the North Atlantic, where temperature anomalies are formed. In the North Atlantic from the equator to 80 ° N were identified 6 areas where the average annual SST anomalies are associated with SST anomalies and sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents Sea. Detailed analysis with monthly SST from HadISST for 1951 - 2013 identified two areas with the greatest influence on the Barents Sea. One area is the northern region of the Gulf Stream and other is the equatorial region. The corresponding delays amounted to 26 months and 4-5 years. The relationship between changes AMO index, averaged over August-October, and SIE in the Barents Sea in January is evaluated. Correlation coefficient between them with 3 year delay is -0.54. Implemented study revealed the importance of teleconnection between SST anomalies in the North Atlantic and SST

  3. Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

  4. Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming.

    PubMed

    Zahn, Matthias; von Storch, Hans

    2010-09-16

    Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones-termed polar lows-constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase.

  5. Multicentennial Agulhas leakage variability and links to North Atlantic climate during the past 80,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dyez, Kelsey A.; Zahn, Rainer; Hall, Ian R.

    2014-12-01

    New high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) estimates are presented from the Agulhas Bank slope in the Atlantic sector of the Agulhas Corridor using planktic foraminiferal (Globigerinoides ruber) δ18O and Mg/Ca-derived SST. By focusing on the last 80,000 years, this is the first fine-scale Agulhas leakage record that overlaps in time with much of the Greenland ice core record of abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic region. The multicentennial profiles indicate instances of warm SST and/or increased SSS coincident with Northern Hemisphere cool periods, followed by Northern Hemisphere warming. These periods of enhanced SST and SSS in the Agulhas Corridor occur at the last glacial termination (T1) and during North Atlantic cold episodes associated with Heinrich (H) meltwater events. To a first-order approximation, the timing of maximal salinity events in relation to periods of North Atlantic freshwater perturbation is consistent with the concept suggested by climate models that enhanced Agulhas leakage provides for buoyancy compensation and can potentially trigger increased convective activity in the North Atlantic, thereby restoring Atlantic overturning circulation after relatively weak states.

  6. The Holocene climate variability in Southwestern Morocco and its link to the North Atlantic Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    SHA, L.; Cheng, H.; Cai, Y.; Edwards, R.; Yin, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Cruz, F.; Bouchaou, L.; Beraaouz, E.; Apaéstegui, J. E.

    2013-12-01

    Southwestern Morocco is located at the southeast side of the Azores High and thus the local climate is sensitive to the changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Two stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from Ifoulki and Win Timdouine Caves, Agadir, Morocco provide a high-resolution and absolutely dated climate history over the entire Holocene (last 11.5 ka). The broad similarity between the Ifoulki and Win Timdouine records for the past two millennia indicates that both records are not likely affected significantly by many possible local factors. The Win Timdouine record characterizes the full Holocene: a moderately wet early Holocene (~11.5 to 9 ka BP), wet mid-Holocene (~ 9 to 3 ka BP) and relatively dry late Holocene (~3 ka BP to present). Superimposed on the long-term trend of Holocene climate variations are eight climate events (wet) on millennial- centennial timescales that can be well linked to the Bond events documented primarily from fluctuations in ice-rafted debris throughout the Holocene in the North Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, both records inferred a relatively dry Medieval Warm Period (high δ18O values),which is consistent with previous tree-ring records from Morocco. In addition, the oscillated δ18O values indicate an unstable climate in this area during the LIA period. Comparing with the NAO proxy records, dryer Medieval Warm Period and relatively wetter Little Ice Age agree with positive and negative NAO conditions, respectively. This linkage may potentially be extrapolated to entire Holocene and therefore put the NAO variability in the context of Holocene climate change and probe its connection with climate changes in adjacent regions throughout the Holocene.

  7. Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

  8. Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, Bruno; Vogel, Hendrik; Crouzet, Christian; Etienne, David; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

    2016-04-01

    The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 event layers, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The layer thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale, summer-to-autumn convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both Atlantic (local events) and Mediterranean (meso-scale events) climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1300-1900). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both, the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950-1250). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of high-intensity flood events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in course of 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties in future evolution of flood intensity lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors between the two periods (greenhouse gases vs. solar/volcanic eruptions).

  9. Effects of orbital-scale ITCZ fluctuations on the mid Cretaceous tropical Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hofmann, P.; Beckmann, B.; Flögel, S.; Wagner, T.

    2009-04-01

    Shifts of the Inter Tropic Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on Milankovitch time scales have profound effects on the climate-ocean system of tropical regions. Changes in wind systems, regional hydrology and continental runoff linked to past fluctuations of the ITCZ are well known to have triggered a complex chain of forcing and feedback mechanisms between the regional biosphere and geosphere. In our study we explore these relationships for the mid-Cretaceous super-greenhouse. We present proxy records from two regions of the Coniacian tropical Atlantic, ODP Site 959 (West Africa off Ivory Coast) and ODP Site 1261 (Northern South America off Suriname) and compare them with results of GENESIS Atmospheric General Circulation modeling. Our data suggest that bioproductivity in the eastern tropical Atlantic mainly followed a precession controlled cyclic pattern which was closely linked to changes in nutrient and freshwater supply via continental runoff from the African continent. Different from that bioproductivity in the western tropical Atlantic shows a strong obliquity and eccentricity cycle pattern. We propose that these differences in the west were mainly caused by fluctuations in wind-driven upwelling off northern South America with a constant and high supply of nutrients from the continent maintaining the ocean redox system anoxic without interruption. Bioproductivity from wind-driven upwelling in the west would have pushed the water column into repetitive sulfidic conditions (euxinia), as confirmed by geochemical evidence. Overall bioproductivity east and west of the tropical Atlantic was high supporting deposition of extensive black shale deposits. The observed differences in depositional patterns on both sides of the Coniacian tropical Atlantic support that (orbital-driven) fluctuations of the ITCZ were mainly responsible, with strong contrasts in regional moisture distribution over Africa and South America and local strengthening of the trade wind system causing

  10. Link between North Atlantic wave climate and circulation changes

    SciTech Connect

    Cardone, V.J.; Greenwood, J.G.; Kushnir, Y.; Cane, M.A.

    1994-12-31

    A secular trend in the mean wave height of the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean has been proposed recently by Bacon and Carter (1991). This estimate was based mainly upon the analysis of wave observations from Seven Stones Light Vessel (SSLV) (1962--1986) located off the southwest tip of England, and Ocean Weather Station Lima (LIMA) (1975--1988) at 57{degree}N, 20{degree}W. The positive trend in the annual mean originates mainly in the monthly means for December, January and February. Kushnir (1994) reports a pattern of NA ocean-atmosphere interaction that indicates a change in the mean low level atmospheric circulation beginning around 1960. This change corresponds to a gradual increase in sea-level pressure in the central NA Ocean. Kushnir linked the change to interdecadal variations in NA sea surface temperature. This raises the possibility that the change in wave climate is associated with this interdecadal air-sea interaction. In this study, this possibility is explored by first hindcasting the sea state over the entire NA over a 10-year period using a calibrated hindcast method and then correlating the variations in the hindcast monthly and seasonal wave height means in the Northeast NA with variations in the circulation index used by Kushnir to monitor changes in the large-scale low level atmospheric circulation. The positive correlation found between these variations, especially during the winter, provides a plausible explanation for the proposed trend in wave climate off the Northwest Coast of Europe as a manifestation of a longer term interdecadal variation resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  11. Climate Dynamics of Regional US Southeastern drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrigo, J.

    2008-12-01

    The phenomena of droughts both regional and continental have received considerable attention from both science and policy. Understanding the larger scale dynamics of these events is critical to improving predictability, management and mitigation strategies. The history of drought in the United States shows both long (multi-decadal) and short (seasonal or yearly) droughts in various regions. Some of the most severe droughts, such as those with the largest economic losses or that have received the most attention both from the scientific and broader communities have occurred in the Midwest/Great Plains (e.g. the "Dust Bowl" years, the 1988 drought) and generally correlate with continent-wide anomalies. The Southeast region of the US, while generally having a more humid temperature climate than the rest of the country, also is subject to periods of drought conditions. In this study we analyze long term records of PDSI in the southeastern United States. While some occurrences correlate with larger continental scale droughts, many severe southeastern droughts occur during a synoptic pattern correlating with wetter conditions through the greater Midwest, have a seasonal pattern different than larger continental scale anomalies, and show correlations with patterns in Atlantic tropical activity. While winter and spring deficits may initiate a drought, we find a proportionally larger decrease in summertime precipitation during severe drought periods. Some of this decrease may be related to the contribution of tropical systems, which increases in the periods following droughts. We suggest that the dynamics of drought in this region differ from the larger US pattern, and particularly need to account for the interaction between continental and tropical contributions. With an increasing population and areas of high agricultural productivity, we argue this region deserves further attention from both the scientific and larger community, that understanding these dynamics will

  12. Climate impacts on multidecadal pCO2 variability in the North Atlantic: 1948-2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breeden, Melissa L.; McKinley, Galen A.

    2016-06-01

    The North Atlantic is the most intense region of ocean CO2 uptake in term of units per area. Here, we investigate multidecadal timescale variability of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) that is due to the natural carbon cycle, using a regional model forced with realistic climate and preindustrial atmospheric pCO2 for 1948-2009. Large-scale patterns of natural pCO2 variability are primarily associated with basin-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) that, in turn, is composed of two parts: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a long-term positive SST trend. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives a secondary mode of variability. For the primary mode, positive AMO and the SST trend modify pCO2 with different mechanisms and spatial patterns. Positive AMO is also associated with a significant reduction in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the subpolar gyre, due primarily to reduced vertical mixing; the net impact of positive AMO is to reduce pCO2 in the subpolar gyre. Through direct impacts on SST, the net effect of positive AMO is to increase pCO2 in the subtropical gyre. From 1980 to present, long-term SST warming has amplified AMO impacts on pCO2.

  13. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Climate Impact - Zonal and Meridional Coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Kirillov, Andrey; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  14. Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

    2004-12-01

    Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMs’ capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in

  15. Tropical Atlantic climate simulated in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doi, T.; Vecchi, G. A.; Rosati, A. J.; Delworth, T. L.

    2012-12-01

    Using two fully coupled ocean-atmosphere models of CM2.1 (the Climate Model version 2.1 developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) and CM2.5 (a new high-resolution climate model based on CM2.1), the characteristics and sources of SST and precipitation biases associated with the Atlantic ITCZ have been investigated. CM2.5 has an improved simulation of the annual mean and the annual cycle of the rainfall over the Sahel and the northern South America, while CM2.1 shows excessive Sahel rainfall and lack of northern South America rainfall in boreal summer. This marked improvement in CM2.5 is due to not only high-resolved orography, but also a significant reduction of biases in the seasonal meridional migration of the ITCZ. In particular, the seasonal northward migration of the ITCZ in boreal summer is coupled to the seasonal variation of the SST and a subsurface doming of the thermocline in the northeastern tropical Atlantic, known as the Guinea Dome. Improvements in the ITCZ allow for better representation of the coupled processes that are important for an abrupt seasonally phase-locked decay of the interannual SST anomaly in the northern tropical Atlantic. Nevertheless, the differences between CM2.5 and CM2.1 were not sufficient to reduce the warm SST biases in the eastern equatorial region and Angola-Benguela Area. The weak bias of southerly winds along the southwestern African coast associated with the excessive southward migration bias of the ITCZ may be a key to improve the warm SST biases there. Also, response of climate conditions in the Atlantic Hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) to doubling of atmospheric CO2 with CM2.5 has been explored. In the annual mean, the SST in the MDR warms by about 2°C in the CO2 doubling run relative to the Control run, the trade winds become weaker in the northern tropical Atlantic, and the rainfall increases over the ITCZ and its northern region. The amplitude of the annual cycle of the SST over the MDR is not

  16. Ocean climate of the South East Atlantic observed from satellite data and wind models [review article

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardman-Mountford, N. J.; Richardson, A. J.; Agenbag, J. J.; Hagen, E.; Nykjaer, L.; Shillington, F. A.; Villacastin, C.

    2003-10-01

    The near-coastal South East Atlantic Ocean off Africa is a unique and highly dynamic environment, comprising the cool Benguela Current, warm Angola Current and warm Agulhas Current. Strong coastal upwelling and the Congo River strongly influence primary production. Much of the present knowledge of the South East Atlantic has been derived from ship-borne measurements and in situ sensors, which cannot generally provide extensive spatial and temporal coverage. Similarly, previous satellite studies of the region have often focused on small spatial areas and limited time periods. This paper provides an improved understanding of seasonal and interannual variability in ocean dynamics along the South East Atlantic coast of Africa using time series of satellite and model derived data products. Eighteen years of satellite sea surface temperature data are complimented by 7 years of sea level data. Three years of chlorophyll a data illustrate the seasonal biological response, but the time series is not of sufficient length for investigating interannual variability in chlorophyll biomass. Modelled wind fields are used to describe atmospheric forcing of the surface ocean. This is the first synoptic-scale description of the South East Atlantic from a suite of large spatial coverage, long time series products. Previous studies of seasonal and interannual variability in the region are reviewed and used to interpret key oceanographic features and processes identified in the satellite data. Key findings of this study are: Descriptions of seasonal and interannual variability from these data show climate forcing of the South East Atlantic coast of Africa from both the northern and southern boundaries. Bimodal seasonal signals of equatorial origin propagate poleward along the Angolan coast, while the trade winds and events in the Agulhas region dominate the Agulhas Bank and Southern Benguela. The Northern Benguela is a mixed regime, under the influence of forcing from both directions

  17. Global scale climate trends associated with variable Atlantic thermohaline transport as inferred from changes in intense hurricane activity

    SciTech Connect

    Gray, W.M.; Sheaffer, J.D.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents a review of the most recent 100 years of data of hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic, and proposes that decadal variations of hurricane activity are but one of a host of observed concurrent global climate trends which may all link to multi-decadal scale variations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The data reviews shows that long term multi-decadal variations in hurricane activity appear to be linked (1) to mode-like variations of regional and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and (2) to concurrent trends in global air temperature, pressure anomalies, and atmospheric circulations. Many of these effects extend well beyond the tropical Atlantic. The pre-eminent effect which seems to dominate all others as a unifying process for these multi-decadal changes is variations in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. A synthesis process is suggested for specifying physically consistent global interactions linking the Atlantic conveyor and decadal trend associations in global climate data. In this way, some of the global data may yield factors which are useful for forecasting the onset and termination of new decadal trends of hurricane activity. 30 refs., 4 figs.

  18. Climate and recruitment of rocky shore intertidal invertebrates in the eastern North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Broitman, Bernardo R; Mieszkowska, Nova; Helmuth, Brian; Blanchette, Carol A

    2008-11-01

    Studies of the impacts of climate and climate change on biological systems often attempt to correlate ecological responses with basin-scale indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, such correlations, while useful for detecting long-term trends, are unable to provide a mechanism linking the physical environment and ecological processes. Here we evaluate the effects of the NAO on recruitment variability of rocky intertidal invertebrates in the North Atlantic examining two possible climate-related pathways. Using a highly conservative test we interpret associations with the NAO integrated over a season (three months) as an indicator of atmospheric effects on newly settled recruits (NAO3), and the effects of the NAO integrated over six months (NAO6) as an indicator of changes in ocean circulation affecting patterns of larval transport. Through an extensive literature survey we found 13 time series, restricted to southwest Ireland and Britain and comprising five species, that could be used for statistical analysis. Significant correlations with NAO3, our proxy for atmospheric effects, were observed in the south-central domain of our study region (southwest Ireland and south England). Significant correlations with NAO6, the proxy for ocean circulation effects, were detected on southwest Ireland. The associations were detected for three (two barnacles and a topshell) at two sites. These results suggest that the NAO can have effects on the recruitment of intertidal invertebrates through different pathways linked to climate and be distributed heterogeneously in space. Based on previous evidence and the sign and geographic location of significant correlations, we suggest that winter NAO effects are likely to occur as a result of effects on the survival of early life stages settling during spring or through changes in phenology. Our results argue that a combination of modeling and synthesis can be used to generate hypotheses regarding the effects of

  19. Rapid Climate Change Over The North Atlantic In A Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, N.

    An episode of rapid climate change is observed in a 300-year control integration of the National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model [CSM; Boville and Gent (1998), Journal of Climate, 11, 1115-1130 and articles in the same edition]. The changes are associated with the formation of sea ice over the Labrador sea and expansion into the North Atlantic south of Greenland. The sea ice expan- sion begins approximately 110 years into the simulation, and is accompanied by ma- jor changes in regional climate and more modest changes in the far field. Over the Labrador Sea winter surface temperature decline more than 10C in 8 years with total decreases of up to 15C. Over Greenland winter temperatures decrease by approxi- mately 6C, over the British Isles by 1C and over Northern Europe by approximately 0.75C. Changes in precipitation are less pronounced but are particularly clear (in- creases) over the British Isles. The cooling is also marked by changes in the winter circulation over the western North Atlantic, where sea level pressure rises of more than 10 hPa occurred markedly change the configuration of the Icelandic Low. Be- yond northern Europe associated climate changes are in some cases detectable but muted. The climate system recovers after approximately 90 years and over a period of about 10 years returns to a state similar to that of the initial 100 years. The causes of the rapid appearance of ice have not year been investigated, however summer SSTs in the Labrador Sea are cooling in the years prior to the appearance of winter sea ice suggesting that changes in ocean circulation may be involved. The rapid expansion of the sea ice once it began to appear suggests some degree of local positive feedback, possibly due to the lack of recovery of summer SSTs after the sea- sonal melting. The simulated climate shift shares features similar to those seen in the cooling episode of 8.2 kyrs ago [Alley, R.B. et al (1997), Geology, 25, 483-486; Von

  20. Rapid transmission of Climate Signals from the North Atlantic to the far Eastern Eurasian continent during the Last Deglacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokoyama, Y.; Suga, H.; Naruse, T.; Ogawa, N. O.; Kitazato, H.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Ohkouchi, N.

    2008-12-01

    experiment designed specifically for reconstructing climate changes due to the freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region was conducted using AOGCM (MIROC3.2). Almost instantaneous cooling trend is seen in the North Atlantic region after putting freshwater into the ocean between the 50-70 degree N. The initiation of cooler climate was found also in the North Western Pacific regions without any major delays. Consistent climate reconstructions from geochemical observation and AOGCM suggests that the major role played by the atmospheric systems due to changing in planetary wave field to transmit rapid climate signals from the North Atlantic to other part in the northern hemisphere.

  1. Impact of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability on Arctic Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahajan, S.; Zhang, R.; Delworth, T. L.

    2009-12-01

    Observations show a rapid decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness, and a rapid warming in Arctic surface air temperatures (SAT) in the past decade. Recent observational studies confirm the amplification of SAT anomalies over the Arctic region, as previously suggested by several modeling studies. While climate model projections clearly show that increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases lead to a warming trend over the Arctic, a recent study finds multidecadal variations of Arctic climate that are strongly correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMOC is often thought to be a major source of decadal/multidecadal variability in the climate system, and contributes to the observed AMO. The focus of this study is to evaluate the role of low frequency AMOC variability on Arctic climate in a 1000 years control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 coupled climate model. Simulated Arctic sea-ice extent anomaly is found to be highly anti-correlated with Arctic SAT anomaly, similar to observations. The coupled climate model also simulates the amplification of Arctic SAT anomalies by a factor of 4 of global SAT anomalies. A strong correlation is also found between the simulated AMO and Arctic SAT and sea-ice extent anomalies on decadal time-scales. The AMO is mainly induced by low frequency AMOC variations in the control simulation. Spatially, the AMO demonstrates the largest influence on the Bering, Labrador and Nordic Seas sea-ice concentration anomalies, similar to the observed spatial pattern of the Arctic sea-ice declining trend since 1979. Both observations and climate model simulations suggest a strong role of AMOC on decadal Arctic climate variability. Our model results suggest that the intensifying AMOC, in addition to anthropogenic greenhouse gases induced global warming, might have also contributed to the recent decline in Arctic sea-ice.

  2. Interglacial climates and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: is there an Arctic controversy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauch, Henning A.

    2013-03-01

    Arctic palaeorecords are important to understand the "natural range" of forcing and feedback mechanisms within the context of past and present climate change in this temperature-sensitive region. A wide array of methods and archives now provide a robust understanding of the Holocene climate evolution. By comparison rather little is still known about older interglacials, and in particular, on the effects of the northward propagation of heat transfer via the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation (AMOC) into the Arctic. Terrestrial records from this area often indicate a warmer and moister climate during past interglacials than in the Holocene implying a more vigorous AMOC activity. This is in conflict with marine data. Although recognized as very prominent interglacials in Antarctic ice cores, cross-latitudinal surface ocean temperature reconstructions show that little of the surface ocean warmth still identified in the Northeast Atlantic during older interglacial peaks (e.g., MIS5e, 9, 11) was further conveyed into the polar latitudes, and that each interglacial developed its own specific palaeoclimate features. Interactive processes between water mass overturning and the hydrological system of the Arctic, and how both developed together out of a glacial period with its particular ice sheet configuration and relative sea-level history, determined the efficiency of an evolving interglacial AMOC. Because of that glacial terminations developed some very specific water mass characteristics, which also affected the climate evolution of the ensuing interglacial periods. Moreover, the observed contrasts in the Arctic-directed meridional ocean heat flux between past interglacials have implications for the palaeoclimatic evaluation of this polar region. Crucial environmental factors of the Arctic climate system, such as the highly dynamical interactions between deep water mass flow, surface ocean temperature/salinity, sea ice, and atmosphere, exert strong feedbacks on

  3. Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, B.; Vogel, H.; Crouzet, C.; Etienne, D.; Anselmetti, F. S.

    2015-10-01

    The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 turbidites, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The deposit thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both, the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of these events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in course of 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors (greenhouse gases vs. solar/volcanic eruptions).

  4. Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, B.; Vogel, H.; Crouzet, C.; Etienne, D.; Anselmetti, F. S.

    2016-02-01

    Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 event layers, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The layer thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale, summer-to-autumn convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both Atlantic (local events) and Mediterranean (mesoscale events) climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1300-1900). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950-1250). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of high-intensity flood events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in the course of the 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties in future evolution of flood intensity lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors between the two periods (greenhouse gases vs. solar and/or volcanic eruptions).

  5. Evidence for multiple drivers of North Atlantic multi-decadal climate variability using CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terray, L.

    2012-12-01

    Observed North Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures have changed in a non-monotonic and non-uniform fashion over the last century. While future North Atlantic decadal-to-multi-decadal climate change will be driven by a combination of internal variability and anthropogenic as well as natural forcings, the relative importance of these effects is still unclear for the 20th century [Ting et al., 2009; Knight 2009; Ottera et al. 2010; DelSole et al., 2011; Booth et al. 2012]. Here we assess the relative roles of greenhouses gases, anthropogenic aerosols, natural forcings and internal variability to the North Atlantic surface temperature decadal fluctuations using CMIP5 multi-model historical simulations driven by estimates of observed external forcings. While the latter are the main source of decadal variability in the tropics and subtropics, there is a large contribution from the unforced component to subpolar Atlantic variations. Reconstruction of forced response patterns suggests that anthropogenic forcings are the main causes of the accelerated warming of the last three decades while internal variability has a dominant contribution to the early 20th-century temperature multi-decadal swings and recent abrupt changes in the subpolar Atlantic. Significant inter-model spread with regard to the spatial response patterns to anthropogenic forcing leads to substantial uncertainty as to robust attribution statements for the mid-to-late 20th century North Atlantic warm and cold periods. Comparing internal variability from preindustrial simulations with that estimated from the observed residual after removing the best estimate of the total forced response leads to a consistency metric which allows to identify models with a biased forced response.; CMIP5 multi-model ratio (ρ_LF) of the externally forced -natural and anthropogenic- variance, σ_EF to the total variance, σ_T, of fluctuations with a period greater than 10 years. Stippling indicates regions where the null

  6. The influence of solar variability past, present and future, on North Atlantic climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunstone, Nick; Scaife, Adam; Ineson, Sarah; Gray, Lesley; Knight, Jeff; Lockwood, Mike; Maycock, Amanda

    2014-05-01

    There has long existed observational evidence for a link between solar activity (both the semi-regular 11-yr cycle and longer term variability) and regional climate variability. In the last few years progress is starting to be made in understanding such observational correlations from physical mechanistic viewpoint. Firstly, new observations of solar spectral irradiance from the SORCE satellite have raised the possibility of much larger variability in the UV than previously appreciated. Secondly, state of the art computer climate models now explicitly resolve the Earth's stratosphere allowing the influence of solar variability to be simulated here. By driving such climate models with the larger solar UV variability implied by the latest satellite observations, surface climate impacts have been shown in the Northern Hemisphere winter that are consistent with late 20th century climate data. Low solar activity is associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hence colder winters over northern Europe and the USA. We discuss the implications for seasonal/decadal climate prediction. Further work has examined the role of ocean feedbacks in amplifying this tropospheric response. There is robust statistical evidence that such a feedback operates in the observations and gives a lag of 3-4 years for the maximum tropospheric response after the maximum solar forcing. This lag does not generally appear to be reproduced by current climate models. We discuss how this observational evidence may be a valuable way of assessing the relative strength of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the present generation of climate models. The prolonged solar minimum during the transition between solar cycles 23 & 24, combined with the relatively low maximum activity of cycle 24, have increased suggestions that we may be coming to the end of the grand solar maximum which dominated the 20th century. A return to Maunder Minimum like solar activity is therefore a possible

  7. A simple coupled model of tropical Atlantic decadal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kushnir, Yochanan; Seager, Richard; Miller, Jennifer; Chiang, John C. H.

    2002-12-01

    A linear, zonally averaged model of the interaction between the tropical Atlantic (TA) atmosphere and ocean is presented. A balance between evaporation and meridional heat advection in the mixed layer determines the sea surface temperature tendency. The atmosphere is a fixed-depth, sub-cloud layer in which the specific humidity anomaly is determined by a steady-state balance between evaporation, meridional advection, and a parameterized humidity exchange with the free atmosphere. When the model is integrated, forced with observed surface wind anomalies from 1965 to the present, its simulation of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is realistic and comparable to a simulation with a full ocean GCM. A statistical representation of surface winds and their relationship to the SST gradient across the equator is used to formulate and test a coupled model of their regional variability. Forced on both sides of the equator, in the trade-wind regions, with ``white-noise'' windspeed perturbations, the SST-wind relationship in the near-equatorial region feeds back positively on existing SST anomalies and gives rise to decadal variability.

  8. How Synchronous was the Transition into the Younger Dryas across the Euro-Atlantic Region?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenk, F.; Muschitiello, F.; Heikkilä, M. P.; Väliranta, M.; Tarasov, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Johansson, A. V.; Naslund, J. O.; Wohlfarth, B.

    2015-12-01

    Observations of a currently weakening subpolar gyre south of Greenland has again increased scientific attention regarding the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the regional to global climate. The rapid climate shift of the Younger Dryas (YD, GS-1) cold reversal during the last deglaciation is attributed to an abrupt slowdown or collapse of the AMOC due to a strong meltwater pulse and/or the rapid disintegration of the Laurentide Ice sheet. Although such a dramatic event is not expected for the future, the spatiotemporal climatic response to such a slowdown is an interesting test case. Two recently well dated proxy records around the North Sea region suggest a non-synchronous early cooling/onset of the YD compared to Greenland (NGRIP). Presentation #61803 discusses the hypothesis of a local cooling as a response to increased ice berg calving and/or meltwater from Fenno-Scandinavian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the late Alleröd warm phase (GI-1a). Here we study CCSM3 model output from the quasi-transient atmosphere-ocean simulation (TraCE) where no strong contribution from FIS is considered from the late Alleröd into the YD. We evaluate to which extent the spatiotemporal temperature response to the AMOC slowdown of the simulation is synchronous over the Euro-Atlantic region and how atmospheric teleconnections reorganize during the rapid shift into the YD. In addition, we run time-slice experiments at high spatial resolution of around 100 km with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.0.5 for the late Alleröd and YD to compare spatial climatic differences for both periods taking into account the regional influence from continental ice sheets in more detail.

  9. Land use and environmental assessment in the central Atlantic region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexander, R. H.; Fitzpatrick, K.; Lins, H. F., Jr.; Mcginty, H. K., III

    1975-01-01

    Data from high altitude aircraft, LANDSAT and Skylab were used in a comprehensive regional survey of land use and its associated environmental impact in the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS). Each sensor system has advantages that were demonstrated by producing experimental land use maps and other data products, applying them to typical problems encountered in regional planning and environmental impact assessment, and presenting the results to prospective users for evaluation. An archival collection of imagery, maps, data summaries, and technical reports was assembled, constituting an environmental profile of the central Atlantic region. The investigation was organized into four closely-related modules, a land use information module, an environmental impact module, a user interaction and evaluation module, and a geographic information systems module. Results revealed a heterogeneous user community with diverse information needs, tending, however, definitely toward the higher-resolution sensor data and the larger-scale land use maps and related information products. Among project recommendations are greater efforts toward improving compatibility of federal, state, and local land use information programs, and greater efforts toward a broader exchange of imagery, computer tapes, and land use information derived therefrom.

  10. Multi-wavelength Observations of South Atlantic Anomaly Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, C. Y.; Tam, S. W. Y.; Chang, T. F.

    2015-12-01

    The South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is a region where the Earth's magnetic field is at its weakest. The energetic particles captured by the geomagnetic field can come closest to the Earth's surface forming a high-radiation region. The ISUAL (Imager of Sprites and Upper Atmospheric Lightning) is a scientific payload aboard the FORMOSAT-2 satellite. The scientific payload consists of an intensifier CCD Imager, an array photometer, and a six-channel spectrophotometers. ISUAL had been monitoring airglow and aurora in the global ionosphere. In this study, we will use ISUAL images and photometer data to analyze the background emissions in the SAA region. From the emission production mechanisms for different measurement channels, we can estimate the properties of the plasma precipitating from the inner radiation belt into the ionosphere of the SAA region. Besides, the ratios of different emissions are also discussed.

  11. Particulate Matter Pollution and its Regional Transport in the Mid-Atlantic States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, H.; Goldberg, D. L.; Hembeck, L.; Canty, T. P.; Vinciguerra, T.; Ring, A.; Salawitch, R. J.; Dickerson, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    Particulate matter (PM) causes negative effects on human health, impair visibility in scenic areas, and affect regional/global climate. PM can be formed through chemical changes of precursors, including biogenic VOCs and anthropogenic SO2 and NOx often from fossil fuel combustion. In the past decades, PM pollution in the US has improved substantially. However, some areas in the Mid-Atlantic States are still designated as 'moderate' nonattainment by EPA. We utilize datasets obtained during the NASA 2011 DISCOVER-AQ campaign to characterize the composition and distribution of summertime PM pollution in the Mid-Atlantic States. Aircraft measurements and OMI satellite retrieval of major anthropogenic precursors (NO2 and SO2) are analyzed to investigate the regional transport of PM precursors from upwind sources. We compare PM concentration and chemical composition observed during the field campaign to CMAQ simulations with the latest EPA emission inventory. Specifically, we focus on the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) chemistry in CMAQ simulations using various biogenic VOCs estimates from the MEGAN and BEIS models. Airborne PM observations including PILS measurements from DISCOVER-AQ campaign and OMI retrievals of HCHO are also used to validate and improve the representation of SOA chemistry and PM pollution within CMAQ. The comparison reveals the source and evolution of PM pollution in the Mid-Atlantic States.

  12. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  13. The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delworth, Thomas L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Xiaosong; Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Rong

    2016-07-01

    Pronounced climate changes have occurred since the 1970s, including rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, large-scale warming and increased tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. Anthropogenic radiative forcing is likely to have played a major role in these changes, but the relative influence of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability is not well established. The above changes have also occurred during a period in which the North Atlantic Oscillation has shown marked multidecadal variations. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in these rapid changes through its influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat transport. We use climate models to show that observed multidecadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation can induce multidecadal variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and poleward ocean heat transport in the Atlantic, extending to the Arctic. Our results suggest that these variations have contributed to the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, Northern Hemisphere warming, and changing Atlantic tropical storm activity, especially in the late 1990s and early 2000s. These multidecadal variations are superimposed on long-term anthropogenic forcing trends that are the dominant factor in long-term Arctic sea ice loss and hemispheric warming.

  14. Pliocene planktic foraminifer census data from the North Atlantic region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    PRISM Project Members

    1996-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a long-term study of the climatic and oceanographic conditions of the Pliocene known as PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping). One of the major elements of the study involves the use of quantitative composition of planktic foraminifer assemblages to estimate seasurface temperatures and identify major oceanographic boundaries and water masses (Dowsett, 1991; Dowsett and Poore, 1991; Dowsett et al., 1992; Dowsett et al., 1994). We have analyzed more than 900 samples from 19 core sites in the North Atlantic Basin (Fig. 1) resulting in a large volume of raw census data. These data are presented here together to facilitate comparison of North Atlantic faunal assemblages. Latitude, longitude, water depth, source of faunal data and source of data used to construct age model (or publication from which age model was taken) are provided for each locality in Table 1. All ages refer to the geomagnetic polarity time scale of Berggren et al. (1985). Counts of species tabulated in each sample are given in Tables 2-20. DSDP and ODP sample designations are abbreviated in Tables 2-20 as core-section, depth within section in centimeters (eg. 10-5, 34 = core 10, section 5, 34 cm below top of section 5).

  15. Understanding long-term (1982-2013) multi-decadal change in the equatorial and subtropical South Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

    2016-04-01

    High-resolution observations along with atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses are diagnosed to understand how and why southeastern Atlantic SSTs have changed over the 1982-2013 period. Multiple datasets are used to evaluate confidence. Results indicate significant SST warming trends (0.5-1.5 K per 32-years) along the Guinean and Angolan/Namibian Coasts, and a cooling trend (-0.10 to -0.60 K per 32-years) over the subtropical South Atlantic between 18°S and 28°S. SST trends are shown to vary over the annual cycle with the greatest changes occurring during November-January. Analysis of the ocean surface heat balance reveals that the austral summer SST warming trend along the Angolan/Namibian Coast is associated with an increase in the net downward atmospheric heat flux. In addition, there is a decrease in coastal upwelling due to circulation changes related to a poleward shift of the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone and an intensification of the southwestern African thermal low. The cooling trend over the subtropical South Atlantic is also associated with the poleward shift of the South Atlantic anticyclone, as stronger surface winds enhance latent heat loss from the ocean over this region. Positive SST trends along the Guinean coast are found to be primarily associated with changes internal to the ocean, specifically, reduced coastal upwelling, diffusion, and enhanced horizontal transport of warmer water. These results highlight the need to better understand South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone and the continental thermal low interactions and their implications for present day climate variability and future climate change.

  16. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or

  17. Stability Behaviour of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Under Different Climate Conditions: The Thermal Component

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, G.; Eichinger, R.; Lohmann, G.; Prange, M.; Barker, S.

    2010-05-01

    During the Last Glacial Maximum the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) was characterized by a southward shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation sites and a relatively shallow NADW- overturning cell, compared to the present mode of operation. Furthermore, abrupt climate events during the last glacial are associated with rapid changes in the THC and accompanying changes of the inter-hemispheric northward oceanic heat transport. Using an interhemispheric box model of the Atlantic THC, coupled to a moist energy balance model of the atmosphere we present a new approach, which is based on the assumption that a completely sea ice covered North Atlantic would inhibit the generation of deep water. Therefore we introduce a dependence of the overturning strength from the sea ice extent in the North Atlantic. This approach can be viewed as a loss of efficiency of the inter-hemispheric density gradient in driving the overturning with cooler climate conditions. The transition from the present day climate to a colder climate forces the Atlantic THC to collapse in an intermediate climate state. This change in the stability behaviour is a consequence of the model response to gradual changes in the outgoing infra-red radiation at the top of the atmosphere. At cooler climate states the increasing atmosphere-ocean temperature contrast and associated ocean heat loss dominates the insulating effect of sea ice on North Atlantic temperature and promotes a sea ice growth. This effect is amplified by a weaker overturning circulation and decreased northward oceanic heat transport, which leads to a positive feedback loop and the existence of multiple equilibria in an intermediate climate state. Based on the reduction of the system to key variables governing the stability, we will also discuss the internal and structural stability of the system with the aid of numerical and analytical solutions to gain a deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics. A comparison with

  18. Clean Coal Technology: Region 4 Market Description, South Atlantic. Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-09-01

    The Region 4 Market Description Summary provides information that can be used in developing an understanding of the potential markets for clean coal technologies (CCTs) in the South Atlantic Region. This region (which geographically is Federal Region 4) consists of the following eight states: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. In order to understand the potential market. A description is provided of the region`s energy use, power generation capacity, and potential growth. Highlights of state government activities that could have a bearing on commercial deployment of CCTs are also presented. The potential markets characterized in this summary center on electric power generation by investor-owned, cooperative, and municipal electric utilities and involve planned new capacity additions and actions taken by utilities to comply with Phases I and II of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990. Regulations, policies, utility business strategies, and organizational changes that could impact the role of CCTs as a utility option are identified and discussed. The information used to develop the Region 4 Market Description is based mainly on an extensive review of plans and annual reports of 29 investor-owned, cooperative, and municipal coal-using electric utilities and public information on strategies and actions for complying with the CAAA of 1990.

  19. Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Gleckler, P. J.; Bonfils, C.; Wehner, M. F.; Achutarao, K.; Barnett, T. P.; Boyle, J. S.; Brüggemann, W.; Fiorino, M.; Gillett, N.; Hansen, J. E.; Jones, P. D.; Klein, S. A.; Meehl, G. A.; Raper, S. C. B.; Reynolds, R. W.; Taylor, K. E.; Washington, W. M.

    2006-09-01

    Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32°C to 0.67°C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model "20th-century" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

  20. Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions.

    PubMed

    Santer, B D; Wigley, T M L; Gleckler, P J; Bonfils, C; Wehner, M F; Achutarao, K; Barnett, T P; Boyle, J S; Brüggemann, W; Fiorino, M; Gillett, N; Hansen, J E; Jones, P D; Klein, S A; Meehl, G A; Raper, S C B; Reynolds, R W; Taylor, K E; Washington, W M

    2006-09-19

    Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32 degrees C to 0.67 degrees C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model "20th-century" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

  1. Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions

    PubMed Central

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Gleckler, P. J.; Bonfils, C.; Wehner, M. F.; AchutaRao, K.; Barnett, T. P.; Boyle, J. S.; Brüggemann, W.; Fiorino, M.; Gillett, N.; Hansen, J. E.; Jones, P. D.; Klein, S. A.; Meehl, G. A.; Raper, S. C. B.; Reynolds, R. W.; Taylor, K. E.; Washington, W. M.

    2006-01-01

    Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32°C to 0.67°C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906–2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model “20th-century” simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions. PMID:16968781

  2. Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Collins, Matthew; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hall, Alex; Hawkins, Ed; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Cassou, Christophe; Giannini, Alessandra; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

  3. How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Henderson, Naomi; Kim, Daehyun; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

    2013-01-01

    The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

  4. Cooling Induced Instability of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation as a Cause for Rapid Climate Transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, G.; Lohmann, G.; Prange, M.; Barker, S.; Laepple, T.

    2009-04-01

    Although there is considerable debate about differences between the modern and the glacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) it is commonly agreed that at peak glacial times the AMOC was characterised by a southward shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation sites and a relatively shallow NADW-cell. Recently the Paleoclimate Modelling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP) has shown that state of the art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models can successfully reproduce such changes. Interestingly, the AMOC response to glacial conditions in the PMIP has revealed that a southward shift of the downward branch and a shoaling of the NADW overturning cell is accompanied by a reduced overturning. Here we present a conceptual approach using an interhemipheric box model of the Atlantic overturning circulation. We assume that a completely sea ice covered North Atlantic box would inhibit the formation of NADW by its insulating effect of surface heat fluxes at the ocean surface. Therefore we introduce a dependence of the overturning strength from the sea ice extent in the North Atlantic. This approach can be viewed as a loss of efficiency of the inter-hemispheric density gradient in driving the overturning with cooler climate conditions. Using this concept we show that the transition from a modern climate state to a colder climate forces the system into millennial-scale oscillations at a threshold. The oscillations are activated by a southward migration of the sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic. The southward migration of the sea ice margin also provides a positive feedback on a weakening of the overturning by climate cooling, which leads to the existence of multiple equilibria in an intermediate climate state. The stability behaviour in our model suggests that changes in the North Atlantic sea-ice cover may have played a dominant role for Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations by determining the available surface area for deep water formation and the

  5. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1998-01-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  6. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1997-12-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  7. Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

  8. Passive margin uplift around the North Atlantic region and its role in Northern Hemisphere late Cenozoic glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyles, Nicholas

    1996-02-01

    Tectonic-climatic models of late Cenozoic global cooling emphasize the importance of middle latitude uplifts (e.g., Tibetan Plateau and the American west) but ignore widespread tectonic events on the margins of the North Atlantic Ocean. Pleistocene glaciations, after 2.5 Ma, are characterized by circum North Atlantic continental ice sheets that formed by the coalescence of perennial snow fields on extensive plateau surfaces in eastern Canada, northwest Britain, and Scandinavia. Plateaus record Cenozoic uplift of peneplains in response to semisynchronous magmatic underplating and thermal buoyancy of rifted continental margins. High-standing plateaus are very sensitive to small reductions in summer temperature. As late Cenozoic climate cooling proceeded, driven by uplift in regions external to the North Atlantic region, elevated plateaus became sites for extensive snow fields and ultimately ice sheets. Circum-Atlantic uplift took place in the key latitudinal belt that is most sensitive to orbitally forced changes in solar irradiation; this, together with albedo effects from large snow fields, could have amplified the relatively weak Milankovitch signal.

  9. Regional climate service in Southern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schipper, Janus; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2013-04-01

    Climate change challenges science, politics, business and society at the international, national and regional level. The South German Climate Office at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is a contact for the structuring and dissemination of information on climate and climate change in the South German region. It provides scientifically based and user-oriented climate information. Thereby it builds a bridge between the climate sciences and society and provides scientific information on climate change in an understandable way. The expertise of KIT, in which several institutions operate on fundamental and applied climate research, and of partner institutions is the basis for the work in the climate office. The regional focus is on the south of Germany. Thematic focuses are e.g. regional climate modeling, trends in extreme weather events such as heavy rain and hail event, and issues for energy and water management. The South German Climate Office is one of four Regional Helmholtz Climate Offices, of which each has a regional and thematic focus. The users of the Climate Office can be summarized into three categories. First, there is the general public. This category consists mainly of non-professionals. Here, special attention is on an understandable translation of climate information. Attention is paid to application-related aspects, because each individual is affected in a different way by climate change. Typical examples of this category are school groups, citizens and the media. The second category consists of experts of other disciplines. Unlike the first category they are mainly interested in the exchange of results and data. It is important to the climate office to provide support for the use of climatological results. Typical representatives of this category are ministries, state offices, and companies. In the third and final category are scientists. In addition to the climatologists, this category also holds representatives from other scientific

  10. On forecasting abnormal climatic events in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Servain, Jacques; Arnault, Sabine

    1995-09-01

    Modelling and observational evidence indicate that interannual variabilities of dynamic height and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea) are largely induced by preceding fluctuations in wind stress, mainly in the western equatorial basin. A wind-driven linear ocean model is used here to test the possibility of forecasting the abnormal dynamic heights. A control run of the model, forced by 1964-1993 wind stress monthly means, is first conducted. Yearly test runs (1964-1994) are subsequently performed from January to August by forcing the model with observed winds from January to May, and then by forcing with the May wind assumed to persist from June to August. During the last three decades the largest deviations of dynamic height simulated by the control run in the Gulf of Guinea in boreal summer would have been correctly forecast from wind data related only to conditions in May of each year. However, for weak climatic anomalies, the model may forecast overestimated values. For the most part (about 20 times during the last 30 years), the sign of the observed SST anomaly in the centre of the Gulf of Guinea during the boreal summer is identical to the sign of simulated anomalies of dynamic height deduced from both control and test runs. Along the eastern equatorial waveguide, the sea level forecasting skill slowly decreases from the first 2 weeks of June until the second 2 weeks of August, but remains high on both sides of the equator throughout boreal summer, as is expected from the adjustment in a linear ocean model. It is established that throughout the year in the Gulf of Guinea the accuracy of the 1-month forecast dynamic height anomaly provided by the simple linear method is greater than that of the 1-month forecast assuming persistence. Acknowledgements. The authors are grateful to Prof. A. K. Sen of the Institute of Radio Physics and Electronics, University of Calcutta for valuable discussions. One of

  11. The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in Chesapeake Bay and the North Atlantic Ocean

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, T. M.; Hayo, K.; Thunell, R.C.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Willard, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    A new 2400-year paleoclimate reconstruction from Chesapeake Bay (CB) (eastern US) was compared to other paleoclimate records in the North Atlantic region to evaluate climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Using Mg/Ca ratios from ostracodes and oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera as proxies for temperature and precipitation-driven estuarine hydrography, results show that warmest temperatures in CB reached 16-17. ??C between 600 and 950. CE (Common Era), centuries before the classic European Medieval Warm Period (950-1100. CE) and peak warming in the Nordic Seas (1000-1400. CE). A series of centennial warm/cool cycles began about 1000. CE with temperature minima of ~. 8 to 9. ??C about 1150, 1350, and 1650-1800. CE, and intervening warm periods (14-15. ??C) centered at 1200, 1400, 1500 and 1600. CE. Precipitation variability in the eastern US included multiple dry intervals from 600 to 1200. CE, which contrasts with wet medieval conditions in the Caribbean. The eastern US experienced a wet LIA between 1650 and 1800. CE when the Caribbean was relatively dry. Comparison of the CB record with other records shows that the MCA and LIA were characterized by regionally asynchronous warming and complex spatial patterns of precipitation, possibly related to ocean-atmosphere processes. ?? 2010.

  12. Impact of fluctuation of hydro-physical regime in the North Atlantic on the climate of Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Anisimov, Mikhail; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri

    2015-04-01

    In the mid-1970s a heat content in the North Atlantic Ocean has substantially changed. Because of its high energy value the event appears to have a significant impact on the regional environment. To verify this suggestion we analyzed the global ocean-atmosphere data related to the negative (1950-1970) and positive (1980-1999) phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The analysis of these data have shown the existence of a thermal dipole in the North Atlantic upper layer which can be interpreted in a sense as an oceanic counterpart of atmospheric NAO. To identify this North Atlantic Dipole (NAD) its index was considered as the ocean 0-100-m layer temperature difference between regions (20°-40°N; 80°-30°W) and (50°-70°N; 60°-10°W). Then the NAD index was suggested a possible physical mechanism factor of the regional ocean-atmosphere system variability which in turn could produce a draw effect on the recent climate of Eurasia. The study showed that the current phase (2000-2013) of the climate in the North Atlantic region becomes qualitatively similar to the situation, typical for period 1950-1970, when the index of continentality in the Eurasian region was a very high. There is a reason to believe that in the coming decades this index is likely to increase, that would be primarily manifested by relatively cold weather in winters and by hot-dry summer seasons. To assess the variability of ocean heat content it was used a General Ocean Circulation model developed at the Institute of numerical mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences. This model belongs to the class of σ-models, and its distinguishing feature is the splitting of the physical processes and spatial coordinates. By using the model there were performed numerical experiments for the evolution of hydrophysical regime of the North Atlantic Ocean at the period of 1958-2006, with a spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25° for 25 horizons with time window of 1 hour. As initial conditions for the

  13. Climate change signal over Northern Adriatic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zampieri, M.; Lionello, P.; Nikulin, G.

    2009-04-01

    In this study we collect the results of several regional climate models from various projects (PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, and others). Temperature, precipitation, Sea Level Pressure, 500hPa geopotential height and wind speed are analyzed for Venetia and the Northern Adriatic region. The agreement among models is analyzed for the control runs and for the scenario simulations, and the dispersion among models is evaluated. The importance of resolutions is addressed as well as the changes of climate extremes in future scenarios.

  14. The importance of the South Atlantic high pressure system for the Tropical Atlantic annual cycle: experiments with a regionally coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry; Jacob, Daniela; Wang, Qiang; Jung, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic (TA) are important for the climate in many regions. Because of this, it is important to simulate accurately the seasonal and interannual variability in this region. Currently, most of the coupled models suffer from serious biases in the TA. Identifying the causes of these biases is an important issue. Using a high-resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere regional model MPIOM- REMO (ROM) we explore the importance of the South Atlantic high pressure (SAH) for the simulated TA variability. In ROM a global ocean model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology. The coupling is active in the region covered by REMO, whereas in the rest of the ocean its circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Here we analyze two set of simulations that differ by the coupled area. In one of the setups, the atmospheric model domain includes the SAH, whereas in the second, the SAH is outside the region of active coupling. The first setup shows a much reduced warm bias in sea surface temperature (SST) in the warm pool and in the Angola-Bengela front. We analyze the contribution of the ocean and the atmosphere to these differences

  15. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide ``A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations`` provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  16. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations'' provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  17. Experimental evaluation of atmospheric aerosol turbidity in different Atlantic regions

    SciTech Connect

    Plakhina, I.N.; Pyrogov, S.M.

    1994-12-31

    The statistical estimation of the experimental values of atmospheric turbidity are considered over the different Atlantic regions: from clean atmospheric conditions to very turbid conditions influenced by air masses from Africa containing continental Sahara aerosol. The factors influencing the variability of atmospheric turbidity are also analyzed. The contribution of aerosol to atmospheric attenuation of the direct solar radiation is estimated. It is shown that aerosol is the main factor determining the values of the optical thickness and its variability. The single scattering albedo is evaluated. The influence of the Sahara dust on the total solar radiation over the ocean surface is estimated. Based on the found relationship between aerosol optical thickness, total atmosphere, and aerosol turbidity in the surface layer, the height of the homogeneous atmosphere has been estimated. In addition, the aerosol generation by ocean surface in storm conditions has been considered.

  18. "Climate Matters Documoments": Enabling Regionally-Specific Climate Awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) is a multidisciplinary program that enhances the ability of Pacific Island communities to understand, plan for, and adapt to climate-induced change. Using both social and physical science research methods, the Pacific RISA engages a network of regional decision-makers and stakeholders to help solve climate-related issues. Pacific RISA has a broad audience of local and regional decision-makers (i.e. natural resource managers, community planners, state and federal government agencies) and stakeholders (i.e. farmers and ranchers, fishermen, community and native islander groups). The RISA program engages with this audience through a mixed-method approach of two-way communication, including one-on-one interviews, workshops, consensus discussions and public presentations that allow us to tailor our efforts to the needs of specific stakeholders. A recent Pacific RISA project was the creation and production of four short, educational "documoment" videos that explore the different ways in which climate change in Hawaii affects stakeholders from different sectors. The documoments, generally titled "Climate Matters", start with a quote about why climate matters to each stakeholder: a rancher, a coastal hotel owner, the manager of a landfill, and the local branch of the National Weather Service. The narratives then have each stakeholder discussing how climate impacts their professional and personal lives, and describing the types of climate change they have experienced in the islands. Each video ends with a technical fact about how different climate variables in Hawaii (sea level, precipitation, ENSO) have actually changed within the last century of observational data. Freely available on www.PacificRISA.org, the Documoments have been viewed over 350 times, and have inspired similar video projects and received positive attention from different audiences of stakeholders and scientists. In other assessment work the

  19. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH, MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA Region 3 to implement a long-term research, monitoring, and assessment program in the Mid-Atlantic region - the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). The MAIA mission is to develop a broad-based partnership to integrate scientific knowledge into the decision-making proc...

  20. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  1. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  2. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

    2012-01-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  3. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition.

  4. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  5. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    PubMed

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  6. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, L. G.; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Roberts, N. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

    2016-07-01

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ13C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  7. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  8. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change. PMID:27365315

  9. A composite annual-resolution stalagmite record of North Atlantic climate over the last three millennia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Andy; C. Hellstrom, John; Kelly, Bryce F. J.; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Trouet, Valerie

    2015-06-01

    Annually laminated stalagmites can be used to construct a precise chronology, and variations in laminae thickness provide an annual growth-rate record that can be used as a proxy for past climate and environmental change. Here, we present and analyse the first composite speleothem annual growth-rate record based on five stalagmites from the same cave system in northwest Scotland, where precipitation is sensitive to North Atlantic climate variability and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our 3000-year record confirms persistently low growth-rates, reflective of positive NAO states, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Another persistently low growth period occurring at 290-550 CE coincides with the European Migration Period, and a subsequent period of sustained fast growth-rate (negative NAO) from 600-900 AD provides the climate context for the Viking Age in northern and western Europe.

  10. A composite annual-resolution stalagmite record of North Atlantic climate over the last three millennia

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Andy; C. Hellstrom, John; Kelly, Bryce F. J.; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Trouet, Valerie

    2015-01-01

    Annually laminated stalagmites can be used to construct a precise chronology, and variations in laminae thickness provide an annual growth-rate record that can be used as a proxy for past climate and environmental change. Here, we present and analyse the first composite speleothem annual growth-rate record based on five stalagmites from the same cave system in northwest Scotland, where precipitation is sensitive to North Atlantic climate variability and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our 3000-year record confirms persistently low growth-rates, reflective of positive NAO states, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Another persistently low growth period occurring at 290-550 CE coincides with the European Migration Period, and a subsequent period of sustained fast growth-rate (negative NAO) from 600-900 AD provides the climate context for the Viking Age in northern and western Europe. PMID:26068805

  11. Investigation of IPCC AR4 coupled climate model North Atlantic mode water formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carman, Jessie C.; McClean, Julie L.

    The formation of mode waters in the North Atlantic was examined in the suite of ocean models that comprise the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). We constructed model climatologies for 1980-1999 from the 20th century simulations, and compared their mode water properties (temperature, salinity, formation rate, volume, turnover time, heat content) with data. In these models, we found biases in both the properties of the mode waters and their formation rates. For Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), property biases principally involved salinity errors; additionally, some models form SPMW in an anomalous region west of the British Isles, shifting the source location of waters entering the overturning cell and altering the Nordic Seas' involvement in the Meridional Overturning Circulation. For Subtropical Mode Water (STMW), property biases involved both salinity and temperature errors, while positioning of heat and water fluxes relative to the Gulf Stream and northwest Sargasso Sea influenced STMW formation rate. Deficiencies in STMW formation rate and volume produced a turnover time of 1-2 years, approximately half of that observed; these variations in mode water bulk properties imply variation in ocean heat storage and advection, and hence deficiencies in all the models' abilities to adequately respond to changes in climatic forcing.

  12. Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizer, James; Goddard, Lisa; Guido, Zackry

    2015-04-01

    An integrated multi-disciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have joined forces with communities and institutions in the Caribbean, South Asia and West Africa to develop relevant, usable climate information and connect it to real decisions and development challenges. The overall objective of the "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience" program is to build community resilience to negative impacts of climate variability and change. We produce and provide science-based climate tools and information to vulnerable peoples and the public, private, and civil society organizations that serve them. We face significant institutional challenges because of the geographical and cultural distance between the locale of climate tool-makers and the locale of climate tool-users and because of the complicated, often-inefficient networks that link them. To use an accepted metaphor, there is great institutional difficulty in coordinating the supply of and the demand for useful climate products that can be put to the task of building local resilience and reducing climate vulnerability. Our program is designed to reduce the information constraint and to initiate a linkage that is more demand driven, and which provides a set of priorities for further climate tool generation. A demand-driven approach to the co-production of appropriate and relevant climate tools seeks to meet the direct needs of vulnerable peoples as these needs have been canvassed empirically and as the benefits of application have been adequately evaluated. We first investigate how climate variability and climate change affect the livelihoods of vulnerable peoples. In so doing we assess the complex institutional web within which these peoples live -- the public agencies that serve them, their forms of access to necessary information, the structural constraints

  13. Climate reconstruction for the last two millennia in central Iberia: The role of East Atlantic (EA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their interplay over the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez-López, G.; Hernández, A.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Trigo, R. M.; Toro, M.; Granados, I.; Sáez, A.; Masqué, P.; Pueyo, J. J.; Rubio-Inglés, M. J.; Giralt, S.

    2016-10-01

    A multi-proxy characterization of the uppermost sedimentary infill of an Iberian alpine lake (Cimera, 2140 m a.s.l.) was performed to establish the climatic and environmental conditions for the Iberian Central Range (ICR) over the last two millennia. This multi-proxy characterization was used to reconstruct the intense runoff events, lake productivity and soil erosion in the lake catchment and interpret these factors in terms of temperature and precipitation variability. The Roman Period (RP; 200 BCE - 500 CE) beginning was characterized by an alternation between cold and warm periods as indicated by short-lived oscillations of intense runoff conditions and soil erosion, although warm conditions dominated the end of the period and the Early Middle Age (EMA; 500-900 CE) onset in the ICR. A noticeable decrease in intense runoff events and a progressive decrease in soil erosion during the late EMA indicated a shift to colder temperatures. In terms of precipitation, both the RP and EMA climate periods displayed a transition from dry to wet conditions that led to a decrease in lake productivity. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1300 CE) was characterized by warm and dry conditions with frequent intense runoff episodes and increases in lake productivity and soil erosion, whereas the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300-1850 CE) showed the opposite characteristics. The Industrial Era (1850-2012 CE) presented an increase in lake productivity that likely demonstrates the influence of global warming. The spatio-temporal integration of the Cimera record with other Iberian reconstructions has been used to identify the main climate drivers over this region. During the RP and EMA, N-S and E-W humidity gradients were dominant, whereas during the MCA and LIA, these gradients were not evident. These differences could be ascribed to interactions between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) phases. During the RP, the general warm conditions and the E-W humidity

  14. Climatic Forcing of Intense North Atlantic Hurricane Activity over the Last Two Millennia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Lane, P.; Toomey, M.; Rodysill, J. R.; Hawkes, A. D.; van Henstum, P. J.; Wallace, D. J.; MacDonald, D.

    2013-12-01

    in the strength in the Labrador Current, likely increased tropical cyclone intensities during this time interval. Further, the southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone at this time, possibly related to increasing northern hemisphere ice at the onset of the Little Ice Age, may have led to increased tropical cyclone genesis off the southeastern United States. Given that this variability is observed only in the most intense storms, anti-phasing of intense hurricane activity between the East and Gulf coasts is likely not simply a function of changing hurricane tracks. Thus, in addition to climatic forcing of basin wide changes in intense hurricane activity, regional controls on the frequency of intense hurricanes (e.g., Loop Current penetration in the Gulf of Mexico and increased Gulf Stream transport along the eastern seaboard of the US), and shifting areas in tropical cyclone genesis likely also have driven variability in Atlantic paleohurricane records over the last two millennia.

  15. Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal.

    PubMed

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

    2013-05-01

    The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or "unit" and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:23762521

  16. Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal.

    PubMed

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

    2013-05-01

    The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or "unit" and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem.

  17. The Climate Shift and the Climate Variability in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez Parages, Jorge; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen

    2010-05-01

    The so-called "climate shift" (CS) was defined at the beginning of the nineties as a dramatic change between 1976-77 in the basic state of the tropical Pacific and in the ENSO dynamics. Nowadays, the 1976-1977 shift is interpreted as a phase change in a decadal scale oscillation (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO, Mantua et al. 1997) lasting from about 1976 to 1988 (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994, Miller et al. 1994). However, several changes in the global climate have been reported after the CS; as changes in the air-sea interactions and in the tropical and extratropical teleconnection patterns. The climate variability of the Mediterranean area is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Hurrell, 2003), which frequency and positive phase intensity has suffered an increase after the CS unprecedented in the instrumental period, in coincidence with extreme drought conditions in the Mediterranean region. This results remark the non-stationary variability of the NAO (Vicente-Serrano and López-Moreno, 2008b) and the existence of changes in the underlying dynamics. In addition, Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and ENSO have also shown to exhibit a strong and non- stationary influence in the Mediterranean basin, with maximum correlations at the beginning of the twenty century and since the CS (Mariotti et al. 2002), in concordance with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) evolution. A recent singular discovery show the influence of the Atlantic Niño on its Pacific counterpart (Rodríguez-Fonseca et al. 2009; Losada et al. 2009), a relation that was statistically pointed out in Polo et al. (2008a). These results remark the increasing importance of the TAV on the global climate and on the observed change, from the late 70's, in the global teleconnections. Although some studies point out the seasonal dependence of the leading modes of precipitation variability over Europe (Zveryaev, 2006), in this work, a gridded monthly terrestrial gauge

  18. Responses of carbon uptake and oceanic pCO2 to climate change in the North Atlantic: A model study with the Bergen Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goris, Nadine; Tjiputra, Jerry; Schwinger, Jörg; Heinze, Christoph

    2015-10-01

    Several model studies diagnose the carbon uptake of the North Atlantic as most sensitive to climate change when considered per unit area. Yet the main drivers of the modeled sensitivity and the share of biological production and physical transport are under debate. In order to contribute to this ongoing discussion, two simulations with the Bergen Earth System Model were carried out for period 1850-2099. One of the simulations (COU) includes the radiative effect of rising CO2 (i.e., climate change), while the second simulation (BGC) excludes this effect. The modeled carbon fluxes show substantially different responses to climate change for different parts of the North Atlantic. Based on these differences, we divide the North Atlantic into two regions, namely, the subpolar gyre (SPG) and the rest of the North Atlantic (rNAT*, covering mainly the subtropical gyre). The highest climate sensitivity is found in the SPG region (accounting for an uptake reduction of 8.06 Pg C over the period 1850-2099), while the response of the rNAT* region is moderate (reduction of 4.00 Pg C). We show that the changing CO2 fluxes in both SPG and rNAT* regions are driven by increasing oceanic pCO2. The pCO2 changes in the rNAT* region are caused by both changing physical and biogeochemical processes, while changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity are the primary contributor to the high climate sensitivity of the SPG region. We identify a reduced biological production to be responsible for the modeled response of DIC and alkalinity, yet the differences between biological contribution and contributions of ocean circulation and CO2 uptake are small, highlighting our need for a better understanding of the marine biological cycle.

  19. Sensitivity of climate and Atlantic overturning circulation to uncertain ocean gateway configurations for the late Miocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradshaw, C.; Lunt, D. J.; Flecker, R.; Martinez-Mendez, G.

    2013-12-01

    The palaeorecord documents late Miocene (11.6-5.3 Ma) climate to be much warmer and wetter than today yet CO2 reconstructions are similar to modern levels. Given the apparent decoupling between CO2 and warmth for this period we investigate here the role of the oceans. The late Miocene experienced significant tectonic change including the restriction of some of the last ocean gateways to close (Panama Gateway and Indonesian Seaway) and open (Bering Strait and Barents/Kara Sea). However, the timing and configuration of these tectonic changes is uncertain. The final closure of the Panama Gateway is dated to the Pliocene, but continental mammal exchange suggests the existence of a Central American archipelago from the mid-late Miocene. The Bering Strait is typically assumed to have opened at the very end of the late Miocene/early Pliocene based on diatom exchange, but other marine and terrestrial evidence points to a much earlier, perhaps intermittent, opening. The timing of the restriction of the Indonesian Seaway is very poorly constrained at middle Miocene to Pliocene. The Barents Sea and Kara Sea shelves are documented as having being subject to extensive glacial erosion and post-glacial uplift since the Pliocene and throughout the Quaternary but records of uplift and erosion during the earlier Cenozoic are limited. However, the presence of significant preglacial sediments suggests that this region underwent tectonic uplift, volcanism and subsequent erosion during the Eocene-Miocene period although the age assignment of the data remains controversial. The Panama Gateway has been suggested to influence North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production through numerous modelling studies, the Bering Strait has been suggested to greatly impact NADW during the Quaternary, and the strength of Indonesian Throughflow is hypothesised to influence Agulhas Leakage, which, in turn, has been speculated to influence Atlantic meridional overturning and thus NADW production. Here, we

  20. Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massey, Neil; Allen, Myles; Hall, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Projections of regional climate change have great utility for impact assessment at a local scale. The CORDEX climate projection framework presents a method of providing these regional projections by driving a regional climate model (RCM) with output from CMIP5 climate projection runs of global climate models (GCM). This produces an ensemble of regional climate projections, sampling the model uncertainty, the forcing uncertainty and the uncertainty of the response of the climate system to the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Using the weather@home project to compute large ensembles of RCMs via volunteer distributed computing presents another method of generating projections of climate variables and also allows the sampling of the uncertainty due to internal variability. weather@home runs both a RCM and GCM on volunteer's home computers, with the free-running GCM driving the boundaries of the RCM. The GCM is an atmosphere only model and requires forcing at the lower boundary with sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) data. By constructing SST and SIC projections, using projections of GHG and other atmospheric gases, and running the weather@home RCM and GCM with these forcings, large ensembles of projections of climate variables at regional scales can be made. To construct the SSTs and SICs, a statistical model is built to represent the response of SST and SIC to increases in GHG concentrations in the CMIP5 ensemble, for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This statistical model uses empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to represent the change in the long term trend of SSTs in the CMIP5 projections. A multivariate distribution of the leading principle components (PC) is produced using a copula and sampled to produce a timeseries of PCs which are recombined with the EOFs to generate a timeseries of SSTs, with internal variability added from observations. Hence, a large ensemble of SST projections is generated, with each SST

  1. North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Abrupt Climate Change through the Last Glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, G., III; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Keigwin, L. D.; Giosan, L.

    2014-12-01

    The climate of the glacial North Atlantic was punctuated by catastrophic discharges of icebergs (Heinrich events), as well as by more mysterious, abrupt warming events associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. These events are suspected to be related to changes in AMOC and its influence on heat transport and the regional and global heat budget. Investigation of these rapid oscillations is often limited by the resolution of sediment records. High accumulation rates at our study site (33.69°N, 57.58°W, 4583m water depth) on the Bermuda Rise allow improved resolution by one to two orders of magnitude. Cores CDH19 (38.81m) and CDH13 (36.70m), were recovered during KNR191, the initial deployment of the RV Knorr's long coring system developed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution with support from the NSF. These cores contain high quality sediment sections that allow high resolution studies extending through the last glacial cycle at a key location for monitoring past oceanographic and climatic variability. Here we present detailed multi-proxy data from Bermuda Rise sediments reflecting deep ocean chemistry and dynamics of the last glaciation, and combine them with published data to produce a continuous, high resolution record spanning the last 70,000 years. CaCO3 burial fluxes, foraminifera stable isotopes, and sedimentary uranium-series disequilibria (including seawater-derived 231Pa /230Th), display coherent, complementary variability throughout the last glaciation. Glacial values in each proxy are consistent with reduced ventilation and overturning compared to the Holocene, with intervals that indicate substantial millennial reductions in each, and others when they briefly approach Holocene levels. In multiple instances, particularly spanning interstadials eight through twelve (IS8-IS12) our results are consistent with an abrupt, subcentennial acceleration in the export of excess 231Pa from the North Atlantic during stadial-interstadial transitions

  2. A coupled regional climate-biosphere model for climate studies

    SciTech Connect

    Bossert, J.; Winterkamp, J.; Barnes, F.; Roads, J.

    1996-04-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The objective of this project has been to develop and test a regional climate modeling system that couples a limited-area atmospheric code to a biosphere scheme that properly represents surface processes. The development phase has included investigations of the impact of variations in surface forcing parameters, meteorological input data resolution, and model grid resolution. The testing phase has included a multi-year simulation of the summer climate over the Southwest United States at higher resolution than previous studies. Averaged results from a nine summer month simulation demonstrate the capability of the regional climate model to produce a representative climatology of the Southwest. The results also show the importance of strong summertime thermal forcing of the surface in defining this climatology. These simulations allow us to observe the climate at much higher temporal and spatial resolutions than existing observational networks. The model also allows us to see the full three-dimensional state of the climate and thereby deduce the dominant physical processes at any particular time.

  3. Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Gille, Sarah T.; Yoo, Changhyun

    2016-03-01

    During the past three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has shown dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-western Pacific but cooling over the eastern Pacific. Competing hypotheses relate this cooling, identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus, to the warming trends in either the Atlantic or Indian Ocean. However, the mechanisms, the relative importance and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnection, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute ~55-75% of the tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. The Atlantic warming drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific as Kelvin waves and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves. The wind changes induce an Indo-western Pacific warming through the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the tropical Pacific by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean dynamical processes. The teleconnection develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern. This mechanism, supported by observations and a hierarchy of climate models, reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought.

  4. The Opening of the Arctic-Atlantic Gateway: Tectonic, Oceanographic and Climatic Dynamics - an IODP Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geissler, Wolfram; Knies, Jochen

    2016-04-01

    The modern polar cryosphere reflects an extreme climate state with profound temperature gradients towards high-latitudes. It developed in association with stepwise Cenozoic cooling, beginning with ephemeral glaciations and the appearance of sea ice in the late middle Eocene. The polar ocean gateways played a pivotal role in changing the polar and global climate, along with declining greenhouse gas levels. The opening of the Drake Passage finalized the oceanographic isolation of Antarctica, some 40 Ma ago. The Arctic Ocean was an isolated basin until the early Miocene when rifting and subsequent sea-floor spreading started between Greenland and Svalbard, initiating the opening of the Fram Strait / Arctic-Atlantic Gateway (AAG). Although this gateway is known to be important in Earth's past and modern climate, little is known about its Cenozoic development. However, the opening history and AAG's consecutive widening and deepening must have had a strong impact on circulation and water mass exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic. To study the AAG's complete history, ocean drilling at two primary sites and one alternate site located between 73°N and 78°N in the Boreas Basin and along the East Greenland continental margin are proposed. These sites will provide unprecedented sedimentary records that will unveil (1) the history of shallow-water exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic, and (2) the development of the AAG to a deep-water connection and its influence on the global climate system. The specific overarching goals of our proposal are to study: (1) the influence of distinct tectonic events in the development of the AAG and the formation of deep water passage on the North Atlantic and Arctic paleoceanography, and (2) the role of the AAG in the climate transition from the Paleogene greenhouse to the Neogene icehouse for the long-term (~50 Ma) climate history of the northern North Atlantic. Getting a continuous record of the

  5. Combined influences of seasonal East Atlantic Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation to excite Atlantic multidecadal variability in a climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Cassou, Christophe

    2015-01-01

    The physical processes underlying the internal component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) are investigated from a 1,000-yr pre-industrial control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model. The low-frequency fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are shown to be the main precursor for the model AMV. The full life cycle of AMOC/AMV events relies on a complex time-evolving relationship with both North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) that must be considered from a seasonal perspective in order to isolate their action; the ocean is responsible for setting the multidecadal timescale of the fluctuations. AMOC rise leading to a warm phase of AMV is statistically preceded by wintertime NAO+ and EAP+ from ~Lag -40/-20 yrs. Associated wind stress anomalies induce an acceleration of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and enhanced northward transport of warm and saline subtropical water. Concurrent positive salinity anomalies occur in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas in link to local sea-ice decline; those are advected by the Eastern Greenland Current to the Labrador Sea participating to the progressive densification of the SPG and the intensification of ocean deep convection leading to AMOC strengthening. From ~Lag -10 yrs prior an AMOC maximum, opposite relationship is found with the NAO for both summer and winter seasons. Despite negative lags, NAO- at that time is consistent with the atmospheric response through teleconnection to the northward shift/intensification of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in link to the ongoing warming of tropical north Atlantic basin due to AMOC rise/AMV build-up. NAO- acts as a positive feedback for the full development of the model AMV through surface fluxes but, at the same time, prepares its termination through negative retroaction on AMOC. Relationship between EAP+ and AMOC is also present in summer from ~Lags -30/+10 yrs while winter EAP- is favored around the AMV peak. Based on

  6. Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Aixue; Deser, Clara

    2013-06-01

    level rise (SLR) is an inescapable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with potentially harmful effects on human populations in coastal and island regions. Observational evidence indicates that global sea level has risen in the 20th century, and climate models project an acceleration of this trend in the coming decades. Here we analyze rates of future SLR on regional scales in a 40-member ensemble of climate change projections with the Community Climate System Model Version 3. This unique ensemble allows us to assess uncertainty in the magnitude of 21st century SLR due to internal climate variability alone. We find that simulated regional SLR at mid-century can vary by a factor of 2 depending on location, with the North Atlantic and Pacific showing the greatest range. This uncertainty in regional SLR results primarily from internal variations in the wind-driven and buoyancy-driven ocean circulations.

  7. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Hurrell, J.W.

    1995-08-01

    Greenland ice-core data have revealed large decadal climate variations over the North Atlantic that can be related to a major source of low-frequency variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the past decade, the Oscillation has remained in one extreme phase during the winters, contributing significantly to the recent wintertime warmth across Europe and to cold conditions in the northwest Atlantic. An evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals coherent large-scale changes since 1980 that are linked to recent dry conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereas northern Europe and parts of Scandinavia have generally experienced wetter than normal conditions. 27 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, J.; Schrum, C.; Cannaby, H.; Daewel, U.; Allen, I.; Artioli, Y.; Bopp, L.; Butenschon, M.; Fach, B. A.; Harle, J.; Pushpadas, D.; Salihoglu, B.; Wakelin, S.

    2014-02-01

    Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the

  9. Southern Hemisphere water mass conversion linked with North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Pahnke, Katharina; Zahn, Rainer

    2005-03-18

    Intermediate water variability at multicentennial scales is documented by 340,000-year-long isotope time series from bottom-dwelling foraminifers at a mid-depth core site in the southwest Pacific. Periods of sudden increases in intermediate water production are linked with transient Southern Hemisphere warm episodes, which implies direct control of climate warming on intermediate water conversion at high southern latitudes. Coincidence with episodes of climate cooling and minimum or halted deepwater convection in the North Atlantic provides striking evidence for interdependence of water mass conversion in both hemispheres, with implications for interhemispheric forcing of ocean thermohaline circulation and climate instability.

  10. Southern Hemisphere water mass conversion linked with North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Pahnke, Katharina; Zahn, Rainer

    2005-03-18

    Intermediate water variability at multicentennial scales is documented by 340,000-year-long isotope time series from bottom-dwelling foraminifers at a mid-depth core site in the southwest Pacific. Periods of sudden increases in intermediate water production are linked with transient Southern Hemisphere warm episodes, which implies direct control of climate warming on intermediate water conversion at high southern latitudes. Coincidence with episodes of climate cooling and minimum or halted deepwater convection in the North Atlantic provides striking evidence for interdependence of water mass conversion in both hemispheres, with implications for interhemispheric forcing of ocean thermohaline circulation and climate instability. PMID:15774752

  11. Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and spring discharges in the Campania region (Southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vita, P.; Allocca, V.; Manna, F.; Fabbrocino, S.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is one of the issues most debated by the scientific community with a special focus to the combined effects of anthropogenic modifications of the atmosphere and the natural climatic cycles. Various scenarios have been formulated in order to forecast the global atmospheric circulation and consequently the variability of the global distribution of air temperature and rainfall. The effects of climate change have been analysed with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods, remaining mainly limited to the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle. Consequently the impact of the climate change on the recharge of regional aquifers and on the groundwater circulation is still a challenging topic especially in those areas whose aqueduct systems depend basically on springs or wells, such as the Campania region (Southern Italy). In order to analyse the long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater circulation, we analysed decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (Southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, in the period from 1921 to 2010, choosing 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations among those with the most continuous functioning as well as arranged in a homogeneous spatial distribution. Moreover, for the same period, we gathered the time series of the winter NAO index (December to March mean) and of the discharges of the Sanità spring, belonging to an extended carbonate aquifer (Cervialto Mount) located in the central-eastern area of the Campania region, as well as of two other shorter time series of spring discharges. The hydrogeological features of this aquifer, its relevance due to the feeding of an important regional aqueduct system, as well as the unique availability of a long-lasting time series of spring discharges, allowed us to

  12. Warm water events in the southeast Atlantic and their impact on regional and large-scale atmospheric conditions in the CMIP5 model output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ott, Irena; Lutz, Karin; Rathmann, Joachim; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2013-04-01

    Two types of El Niño-like events are described in the South Atlantic: the Atlantic Niño in the equatorial Atlantic and the Benguela Niño off the Namibian and Angolan coast. These warm water events are known to be associated with rainfall anomalies at the West and Southwest African coastal region and harm marine ecosystems and fish populations. The two phenomena are handled separately so far, but the identification of warm water events in our study - via similar variabilities of sea surface temperatures (SST) - based on observed SST data (HadISST1.1) as well as global climate model output from CMIP5, involved the definition of an area mean index that includes both Niño types from the Atlantic region. A multi-model ensemble of the CMIP5 output is used to investigate the impact of Atlantic Niño events on regional atmospheric conditions. Based on the Atlantic SST index, composite analyses give information about anomalous precipitation, air pressure, humidity, evaporation, horizontal wind and vertical air motion patterns over the African continent and the South Atlantic. The Atlantic variability mode is similar to the Pacific El Niño system, but more irregular and less intense. However, recent studies show that the Atlantic influences the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean by the modification of the Walker and Hadley circulations and associated wind stress, thermocline and SST anomalies, further amplified by the Bjerknes positive feedback. As a result, an Atlantic Niño is followed by a La Niña-like phenomenon in the Pacific area with a lag of six months. In our study, the CMIP5 output is considered with respect to its ability of describing the complex connection between the Atlantic and Pacific variability modes. For that purpose, the inter-ocean teleconnection is studied with correlation analyses of the ensemble members of the CMIP5 output by means of the Atlantic index, the Southern Oscillation (SOI) and the Pacific El Niño indices (Ni

  13. Contrasted climatic trends in the Atlantic vs. Pacific gateways of the Arctic Ocean during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vernal, A.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; Rochon, A.

    2013-12-01

    The reconstruction of sea-surface conditions including sea ice cover was undertaken based on about 20 marine sediment cores collected in the Arctic Ocean and subarctic seas. The approach has been standardized and mostly relies on the modern analogue technique applied to dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, which permit simultaneous estimates of sea ice cover, summer sea-surface temperature and salinity. The results show some regionalism in both trends, amplitude and overall variability. In general, changes of small amplitude are recorded in the Canadian Arctic whereas a slight cooling trend with an increasing sea ice cover characterizes the Northern Baffin Bay and Fram Strait areas from mid to late Holocene. In contrast, the Chukchi Sea records show large amplitude variations with millennial pacing making difficult to define any trend. The Chukchi Sea data indicate reduced sea ice and warmer conditions during the mid-Holocene, notably around 6.5 and 3.5 ka, and also point to important variations during the last millennium. The overall results suggest a higher variability thus sensitivity to climate change, in the Chukchi Sea area than in the Eastern parts of the Arctic and subarctic regions, which are largely influenced by northern branches of the North Atlantic Drift. The climate sensitivity of the Chukchi Sea area may be related to the proximity of the Pacific gateway. Strong linkages between sea-surface conditions, sea ice cover and export rate seem tightly linked there with large scale atmospheric synopses in the North Pacific and possibly the tropical Pacific. The apparent consistency of the Mount Logan record (Fisher et al., the Holocene 2008) with those of the Chukchi Sea (de Vernal et al., Quat. Sci. Rev. 2013) tends to support the hypothesis of a strong influence of North Pacific atmospheric teleconnections on sea-surface conditions in the Western Arctic.

  14. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  15. Atlantic and Pacific Influences on Mesoamerican Climate Over the Past Millennium (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahle, D. W.; Burnette, D. J.; Villanueva, J.; Cleaveland, M. K.

    2010-12-01

    Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the first exactly dated millennium-long tree-ring chronology in central Mexico. The chronology is sensitive to both precipitation and temperature, and has been used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June from AD 771-2008 for a large sector of Mesoamerica (most of central and southern Mexico). Fourier-transform spectral analyses of the 1,238-year long reconstruction indicate strong concentrations of variance at frequencies associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO; representing over 14% of the total reconstructed variance between periods of 4.5 and 5.5 years), and at multi-decadal frequencies potentially associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; representing over 10% of the total variance between periods of 50 and 75 years). Weaker but statistically significant concentrations of variance are also detected with the Multi-Taper Method of spectral analysis at subdecadal timescales potentially linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; 7.5 years) and at timescales possibly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (~33 years). The reconstruction is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the ENSO cold tongue region from 1871-2008 (during the boreal cool season, DJFM), and this SST correlation strengthens in the 20th Century (1931-2008). Summer drought tends to develop over central Mexico during El Nino events, and the record warm events observed in 1983 and 1998 were associated with the two most extremely dry June PDSI conditions in the past 1,238 years (reconstructed ranks 1 and 2 for 1983 and 1998, respectively). The reconstruction is also significantly correlated with SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic, and is coherent with long instrument-based indices of the NAO at periods near 7.5 years, but only during the 20th century. The June PDSI reconstruction is coherent (P<0.05) with a 600

  16. Paleoceanography of the Atlantic-Mediterranean exchange: Overview and first quantitative assessment of climatic forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogerson, M.; Rohling, E. J.; Bigg, G. R.; Ramirez, J.

    2012-06-01

    The Mediterranean Sea provides a major route for heat and freshwater loss from the North Atlantic and thus is an important cause of the high density of Atlantic waters. In addition to the traditional view that loss of fresh water via the Mediterranean enhances the general salinity of the North Atlantic, and the interior of the eastern North Atlantic in particular, it should be noted that Mediterranean water outflowing at Gibraltar is in fact cooler than compensating inflowing water. The consequence is that the Mediterranean is also a region of heat loss from the Atlantic and contributes to its large-scale cooling. Uniquely, this system can be understood physically via the constraints placed on it by a single hydraulic structure: the Gibraltar exchange. Here we review the existing knowledge about the physical structure of the Gibraltar exchange today and the evidential basis for arguments that it has been different in the past. Using a series of quantitative experiments, we then test prevailing concepts regarding the potential causes of these past changes. We find that (1) changes in the vertical position of the plume of Mediterranean water in the Atlantic are controlled by the vertical density structure of the Atlantic; (2) a prominent Early Holocene "contourite gap" within the Gulf of Cadiz is a response to reduced buoyancy loss in the eastern Mediterranean during the time of "sapropel 1" deposition; (3) changes in buoyancy loss from the Mediterranean during MIS3 caused changes in the bottom velocity field in the Gulf of Cadiz, but we note that the likely cause is reduced freshwater loss and not enhanced heat loss; and (4) strong exchange at Gibraltar during Atlantic freshening phases implies that the Gibraltar exchange provides a strong negative feedback to reduced Atlantic meridional overturning. Given the very counterintuitive way in which the Strait of Gibraltar system behaves, we recommend that without quantitative supporting work, qualitative interpretations

  17. Sensitivity of the North Atlantic Basin to cyclic climatic forcing during the early Cretaceous

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dean, W.E.; Arthur, M.A.

    1999-01-01

    Striking cyclic interbeds of laminated dark-olive to black marlstone and bioturbated white to light-gray limestone of Neocomian (Early Cretaceous) age have been recovered at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) and Ocean Drilling Project (ODP) sites in the North Atlantic. These Neocomian sequences are equivalent to the Maiolica Formation that outcrops in the Tethyan regions of the Mediterranean and to thick limestone sequences of the Vocontian Trough of France. This lithologic unit marks the widespread deposition of biogenic carbonate over much of the North Atlantic and Tethyan seafloor during a time of overall low sealevel and a deep carbonate compensation depth. The dark clay-rich interbeds typically are rich in organic carbon (OC) with up to 5.5% OC in sequences in the eastern North Atlantic. These eastern North Atlantic sequences off northwest Africa, contain more abundant and better preserved hydrogen-rich, algal organic matter (type II kerogen) relative to the western North Atlantic, probably in response to coastal upwelling induced by an eastern boundary current in the young North Atlantic Ocean. The more abundant algal organic matter in sequences in the eastern North Atlantic is also expressed in the isotopic composition of the carbon in that organic matter. In contrast, organic matter in Neocomian sequences in the western North Atlantic along the continental margin of North America has geochemical and optical characteristics of herbaceous, woody, hydrogen-poor, humic, type III kerogen. The inorganic geochemical characteristics of the dark clay-rich (80% CaCO3) interbeds in both the eastern and western basins of the North Atlantic suggest that they contain minor amounts of relatively unweathered eolian dust derived from northwest Africa during dry intervals.

  18. The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

    PubMed

    Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

    2004-06-01

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research. PMID:15264594

  19. Regional and inter-annual variability in Atlantic zooplankton en route to the Arctic Ocean: potential effects of multi-path Atlantic water advection through Fram Strait and the Barents Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwasniewski, Slawomir; Gluchowska, Marta; Trudnowska, Emilia; Ormanczyk, Mateusz; Walczowski, Waldemar; Beszczynska-Moeller, Agnieszka

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic is among the regions where the climate change effects on ecosystem will be the most rapid and consequential, with Arctic amplification recognized as an integral part of the process. Great part of the changes are forced by advection of warm waters from the North Atlantic and the expected modifications of Arctic marine ecosystem will be induced not only by changing environmental conditions but also as a result of introducing Atlantic biota. Thus, the knowledge of physical and biological heterogeneity of Atlantic inflow is requisite for understanding the effects of climate change on biological diversity and ecosystem functioning in the Arctic. The complex and variable two-branched structure of the Atlantic Water flow via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea most likely has a strong influence on the ocean biology in these regions, especially in the pelagic realm. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems which form essential links between primary producers and grazer/predator consumers, thus they are important for functioning of the biological carbon pump. Changes in zooplankton distribution and abundance may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning, with regulatory effects on climate. Based on data collected in summers of 2012-2014, within the scope of the Polish-Norwegian PAVE research project, we investigate zooplankton distribution, abundance and selected structural characteristics of communities, in relation to water mass properties in the Atlantic Water complex flow to the Arctic Ocean. The main questions addressed here are: what are the differences in zooplankton patterns between the Fram Strait and Barents Sea branches, and how does the inter-annual variability of Atlantic Water advection relate to changes in zooplankton? The results of the investigation are precondition for foreseeing changes in the pelagic realm in the Arctic Ocean and are necessary for constructing and tuning plankton components of ecosystem models.

  20. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  1. HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GLOBAL SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERNS, MID-ATLANTIC CLIMATE STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT FLUXES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere temperature in the past century strongly suggests that we are now in a period of rapid global climate change. Also, the climate in the mid-Atlantic is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which affects the frequency and seve...

  2. 600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieten, Rolf; Winter, Amos; Scholz, Denis; Black, David; Spoetl, Christoph; Winterhalder, Sophie; Koltai, Gabriella; Schroeder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Terzer, Stefan; Zanchettin, Davide; Mangini, Augusto

    2016-04-01

    A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) describing low-frequency sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic ocean. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most recent AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years (Svendsen et al., 2014) with a time lag of 10-20 years. The lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time

  3. Simulating Regional Climate Change in New Hampshire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komurcu, M.; Acosta, R. P.; Huber, M.

    2014-12-01

    Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulated future projections using smaller scale, higher resolution models is widely used to assess the regional impacts of climate change on weather, ecosystems and economy. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale Community Earth System Model (CESM) future projections using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 to simulate the possible effects of climate change in New Hampshire (NH). The first step to ensure that the downscaled model output is representative of the NH region is to find the correct WRF model set up for the region. This task is accomplished using CESM simulations of the historical period as forcing for WRF simulations and performing multiple sensitivity tests with different options for WRF physics parameterizations such as boundary layer, cloud microphysics and convection parameterizations. Simulated precipitation, temperature and other variables are compared with observations to obtain the more suitable model setup for NH. WRF simulations are performed on nested grids with 36, 12 and 4 km grid spacing, and the smallest grid sized nest is focused over NH. Furthermore, to prevent the drift of regional model from global model simulated climatology, WRF is reinitialized from GCM output every five days. Previous studies have shown that future regional climate model predictions of precipitation and snow water equivalent depend on the re-initialization interval of WRF from GCM forcing specifically over the western U.S, where topography is high. This problem is mainly because re-initialization erases the simulated memory for certain variables such as soil moisture. To evaluate whether re-initialization time-scale is also important in the Eastern US, in this study, the effects of 5-daily versus monthly re-initialization of WRF using CESM output on model simulated precipitation are also investigated. The obtained WRF model setup is

  4. A STRATEGY FOR INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION OF RIPARIAN BUFFERS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increased sediments, nutrients, and other contaminants in the Mid-Atlantic region contribute to environmental problems ranging from stream degradation to possibly Pfiesteria attacks in Chesapeake Bay. Restoring riparian areas - the filters between terrestrial watersheds and aquat...

  5. North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the last 2000 years: Patterns, Consequences and Potential Climatic Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Lane, P.; Hawkes, A.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Ranasinghe, P. N.; Toomey, M.; MacDonald, D.

    2011-12-01

    1300 years ago. A reconstruction of intense hurricane landfalls from the Gulf coast documents some similar patterns that likely point to large scale climate forcing; however, some significant differences are evident. For example, the Gulf frequently experienced intense hurricanes during the 13th and 14th centuries, but a subsequent decline in activity has persisted through the historic period. This antiphasing of intense hurricane activity between the East and Gulf coasts may point to basin-wide changes in hurricane tracks, but regional controls on the frequency of intense hurricanes (e.g., loop current penetration in the Gulf of Mexico) may also have driven spatial variability in Atlantic paleohurricane records.

  6. Last Glacial - Holocene climate variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Wenshen; Esper, Oliver; Gersonde, Rainer

    2016-03-01

    The Southern Ocean plays a major role in the glacial/interglacial global carbon cycle. However, there is a substantial lack of information from its Antarctic Zone south of the Polar Front (PF) to understand key climate processes (e.g., sea ice variability, productivity changes, CO2 source region, shifts of the Southern Westerly Wind) active in this region during the glacial/interglacial transition, due to the limited high-resolution sediment records from this area. To close this gap, we investigated high resolution diatom records from a series of sediment cores from the Atlantic and Western Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean between the modern PF and the Winter Sea Ice (WSI) edge. Summer Sea Surface Temperature (SSST) and sea ice information spanning the past 30 thousand years were derived from diatom transfer functions and indicators, which augment comprehensive information on past surface ocean conditions and related ocean and atmospheric circulation, as well as opal deposition. These complementary lines of evidences also provide important environmental boundary conditions for climate simulations understanding the past climate development in the high latitudes Southern Ocean. Our reconstructions show that the Last Glacial (LG) SSSTs south of the modern PF are 1-3 °C colder than modern conditions, WSI expanded to the modern PF. Our data suggests effective carbon export in the Antarctic Zone during the LG. Deglacial two steps of warming support the bipolar seesaw mechanism. Antarctic Zone is an important source region for the CO2 deglacial increase. The warming was more suppressed towards south, due to continuous ice discharge from Antarctica. The SSSTs exceeded modern values during the early Holocene optimum, when WSI extent probably retreated south of its modern position. The southern boundary of maximum opal deposition zone may have shifted to south of 55°S in the Bouvet Island area at this time. The mid-late Holocene cooling with WSI re-expanding to the

  7. A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robson, Jon; Ortega, Pablo; Sutton, Rowan

    2016-07-01

    In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had important climate impacts such as increased hurricane numbers and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Since the mid-1990s direct and indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately 0.45 °C or 1.5 × 1022 J, reversing the previous warming trend. By analysing observations and a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that this cooling is consistent with a reduction in the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transport, linked to record low densities in the deep Labrador Sea. The low density in the deep Labrador Sea is primarily due to deep ocean warming since 1995, but a long-term freshening also played a role. The observed upper ocean cooling since 2005 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols directly drive Atlantic temperatures.

  8. Climatic Impact of a Change in North Atlantic Deep Water Formation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, D.

    1984-01-01

    The response of the ocean to climate changes is one of the most uncertain questions regarding the impact of increasing CO2 on climate and society. North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation apparently depends on a complex confluence of different water masses originating in different areas, all of which will presumably be affected by changes in wind, evaporation, etc., as the atmosphere warms. To analyze from first principles what the effect will be on NADW formation is a task which requires an ocean modeling capability not yet available. As a substitute, past climates can be investigated to see if there is any evidence for alterations in NADW formation. In addition, the possible impact of such changes on climate can be explored. An estimate of NADW sensitivity (at least in the past) and of the climate consequences can be studied. The North Atlantic surface water temperatures can be reconstructed to indicate a substantial cooling between 11,000 and 10,000 years B.P. Were NADW formation to have ceased, it would have resulted in cooler surface waters; whether the reconstructed temperatures were due to this or some other effect cannot be determined at this time. Nevertheless, it was decided that it would be useful to see what the effect these colder temperatures would have had on the climate.

  9. Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gu, Guojun

    2005-01-01

    Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

  10. Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    The relationship between the characteristics of wine and its geographic origin is frequently used to explain the hierarchy of high-quality wines. Port wine is produced from grapes grown in selected areas of the Douro valley, in Portugal, the so-called Região Demarcada do Douro, the first wine-producing region of the world (dating from 1758). The Douro region presents distinctive climatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Moreover Portugal possesses a large array of native varietals, producing an abundant diversity of different wines. The most protected wines, produced only with some authorised grape varietals in the demarcated regions, are labelled D.O.C. (Denominação de Origem Controlada, similar to the French Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée (AOC)) which secures a superior wine quality. Recent warming trends in Portugal are associated with the significant increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves, and the increase in the frequency of hot days and tropical nights, especially in spring and summer, together with a significant decrease in the frequency of cold waves and frost days (Santo et al., 2014). Moreover a predominantly negative tendency in precipitation indices was also found (de Lima et al., 2014). These trends and associated changes in temperature and precipitation regimes may exert strong influences on agriculture systems. In this work we have performed an analysis of the distinct behaviour of several meteorological fields in vintage versus non-vintage years for Port Wine on one hand and Alentejo and Dão/Bairrada DOC regions on the other hand, during the period spanning from 1964-1995. The relative importance of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and frost days is assessed for each individual month of the vegetative cycle and their importance to the wine quality is evaluated. Furthermore, composites of 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure fields over the Euro Atlantic region are also compared for years

  11. Satellite-based climate information within the WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obregón, A.; Nitsche, H.; Körber, M.; Kreis, A.; Bissolli, P.; Friedrich, K.; Rösner, S.

    2014-05-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) around the world to create science-based climate information on a regional scale within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The paper introduces the satellite component of the WMO Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring (RCC-CM) for Europe and the Middle East. The RCC-CM product portfolio is based on essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), spanning the atmospheric (radiation, clouds, water vapour) and terrestrial domains (snow cover, soil moisture). In the first part, the input data sets are briefly described, which are provided by the EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) Satellite Application Facilities (SAF), in particular CM SAF, and by the ESA (European Space Agency) Climate Change Initiative (CCI). In the second part, the derived RCC-CM products are presented, which are divided into two groups: (i) operational monitoring products (e.g. monthly means and anomalies) based on near-real-time environmental data records (EDRs) and (ii) climate information records (e.g. climatologies, time series, trend maps) based on long-term thematic climate data records (TCDRs) with adequate stability, accuracy and homogeneity. The products are provided as maps, statistical plots and gridded data, which are made available through the RCC-CM website (www.dwd.de/rcc-cm).

  12. Building Partnerships and Research Collaborations to Address the Impacts of Arctic Change: The North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polk, J.; North, L. A.; Strenecky, B.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Arctic warming influence the various atmospheric and oceanic patterns that drive Caribbean and mid-latitude climate events, including extreme events like drought, tornadoes, and flooding in Kentucky and the surrounding region. Recently, the establishment of the North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) project at Western Kentucky University (WKU) in partnership with the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland Arctic Cooperation Network (IACN), and Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) provides a foundation from which to engage students in applied research from the local to global levels and more clearly understand the many tenets of climate change impacts in the Arctic within both a global and local community context. The NAC3 project encompasses many facets, including joint international courses, student internships, economic development, service learning, and applied research. In its first phase, the project has generated myriad outcomes and opportunities for bridging STEM disciplines with other fields to holistically and collaboratively address specific human-environmental issues falling under the broad umbrella of climate change. WKU and UNAK students desire interaction and exposure to other cultures and regions that are threatened by climate change and Iceland presents a unique opportunity to study influences such as oceanic processes, island economies, sustainable harvest of fisheries, and Arctic influences on climate change. The project aims to develop a model to bring partners together to conduct applied research on the complex subject of global environmental change, particularly in the Arctic, while simultaneously focusing on changing how we learn, develop community, and engage internationally to understand the impacts and find solutions.

  13. A role for land surface forcing of North Atlantic climate and isotope signals during the 8.2kyr event?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul

    2014-05-01

    An important example of abrupt climate change occurred 8200 years ago in the North Atlantic and is generally known as the 8.2kyr event. This abrupt ~160 year cooling appears to coincide with the final drainage of the ice-dammed Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The resultant influx of meltwater to the North Atlantic is assumed to have perturbed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, reducing northward heat transport and causing widespread cooling. Numerous lines of evidence support this theory, with reconstructions showing changes in deep water formation, reductions in salinity and evidence of sea-level rise. Coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations driven with realistic estimates of the meltwater flux show a regional cooling but fail to replicate the duration or the magnitude of this event in comparison with proxy archives. Meltwater injection was not the only rapid climate forcing in operation at this time. Drainage of the pro-glacial lakes would have had a profound effect on the boundary layer heat fluxes over North America, with potential teleconnections further afield. In this work we use an isotope-enabled version of the coupled GCM HadCM3 with boundary conditions appropriate for the time period of 9kyr (including ice sheets, greenhouse gases and orbital parameters). This model tracks oxygen isotopes throughout the hydrological cycle allowing more robust comparison with proxy archives. We analyse the impact of the removal of a lake area corresponding to Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at this time and present sensitivity tests designed to analyse the contributions from lake removal, orographic change and the assumed isotopic content of the pro-glacial lakes. The results show a distinct pattern of cooling across North America (in the annual mean) with an apparent teleconnection to the Barents Sea, where there is warming associated with sea-ice reduction. The isotopic implications depend on the initial isotopic content of the pro-glacial lake. Assuming

  14. Chapter 3. Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua.

    PubMed

    Mieszkowska, Nova; Genner, Martin J; Hawkins, Stephen J; Sims, David W

    2009-01-01

    During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, we describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging. Taken together, this evidence demonstrates that knowledge of spatial population ecology is critical for evaluating the effects of climate change and commercial harvesting. To explore the possible effects of climate change on cod, we first describe thermal influences on individual physiology, growth, activity and maturation. We then evaluate evidence that temperature has influenced population-level processes including direct effects on recruitment through enhanced growth and activity, and indirect effects through changes to larval food resources. Although thermal regimes clearly define the biogeographic range of the species, and strongly influence many aspects of cod biology, the evidence that population declines across the North Atlantic are strongly linked to fishing activity is now overwhelming. Although there is considerable concern about low spawning stock biomasses, high levels of fishing activity continues in many areas. Even with reduced fishing effort, the potential for recovery from low abundance may be compromised by unfavourable climate and Allee effects. Current stock assessment and management approaches are reviewed, alongside newly advocated methods for monitoring stock status and recovery. However, it remains uncertain whether the rebuilding of cod to historic population sizes and demographic structures will be possible in a warmer North Atlantic.

  15. Proceedings of second Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf Region Information Transfer Meeting (ITM)

    SciTech Connect

    Gould, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    The second Information Transfer Meeting (ITM) for the Atlantic OCS, held January 28-29, 1987 in Arlington, Virginia, included 20 presentations over a two-day period. The first morning, an overview of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Environmental Studies Program introduced a day of detailed presentations on active and recently completed North Atlantic, Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic and Multi-Regional Studies. The second day was devoted to panel discussions on non-energy minerals on the Atlantic OCS and environmental concerns on the Georges Bank. Summaries of all presentations are included. This document was developed from the ITM conference tapes, questions and answers taken by the conference rapporteur, and written materials provided by the speakers. Although verbatim transcripts are not contained in these Proceedings, detailed information about individual study objectives, findings, and policy implications may be obtained from the appropriate Principal Investigator(s). Addresses for all speakers and general attendees are provided in the Appendices.

  16. Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.

    2011-01-01

    We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

  17. Tropical Atlantic Impacts on the Decadal Climate Variability of the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. In particular, several recent works indicate that the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) may contribute to the climate variability over the equatorial Pacific. Inspired by these studies, our work aims at investigating the impact of the tropical Atlantic on the entire tropical climate system, and uncovering the physical dynamics under these tropical teleconnections. We first performed a 'pacemaker' simulation by restoring the satellite era tropical Atlantic SST changes in a fully coupled model - the CESM1. Results reveal that the Atlantic warming heats the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific, enhances the Walker circulation and drives the subsurface Pacific to a La Niña mode, contributing to 60-70% of the above tropical changes in the past 30 years. The same pan-tropical teleconnections have been validated by the statistics of observations and 106 CMIP5 control simulations. We then used a hierarchy of atmospheric and oceanic models with different complexities, to single out the roles of atmospheric dynamics, atmosphere-ocean fluxes, and oceanic dynamics in these teleconnections. With these simulations we established a two-step mechanism as shown in the schematic figure: 1) Atlantic warming generates an atmospheric deep convection and induces easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves, and westerly wind anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution. This circulation changes warms the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific with the wind-evaporation-SST effect, forming a temperature gradient over the Indo-Pacific basins. 2) The temperature gradient further generates a secondary atmospheric deep convection, which reinforces the easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and enhances the Walker circulation, triggering the Pacific to a La Ni

  18. Climate variability in the North Atlantic on decadal and multi-decadal time scales: A numerical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Wei

    The goal of this work is to understand the mechanisms that drive the decadal and multi-decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic. Natural climate variability on these particular time scales occupies a central position in discussions of anthropogenic climate changes, but many aspects related, to this issue are still poorly understood. The major tool used in this study is a coupled general circulation model consisting of the NCAR CCM3 and the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model. The simulated decadal variability in the North Atlantic is dominated by a tri-pole pattern in sea surface temperature and a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern in sea level pressure. The associated oceanic fluctuations are characterized by a delayed subtropical gyre response to anomalou's NAO surface wind stress forcing and advection of SST anomalies originating near the western boundary into the interior ocean. Separate ocean-alone experiments suggest that the SST variability can not be attributed solely to passive response of the ocean to atmospheric thermal forcing. It is also found that a quasi-oscillatory fluctuation of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic ocean with an approximate time scale of 30 years is present in the coupled but not in uncoupled simulations. The latter were forced with either Newtonian relaxation boundary conditions (based on a monthly climatology of the atmospheric state variables such as the surface air temperature and surface specific humidity) or with imposed monthly varying heat and fresh water flux conditions. These results suggest that the variability of the THC in this model is neither an ocean internal phenomenon nor a passive response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing. Rather, it is a coupled process involving both the ocean and the atmosphere. The THC oscillation appears to be driven by surface heat flux forcings while the effects of surface fresh water fluxes are secondary. Two delay effects are crucial for

  19. Providing Western Regional Climate Services - Perspectives from the Western Regional Climate Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    The western United States faces distinct challenges such as persistent drought, dwindling water resources amidst an expanding population, and climate-sensitive alpine environments. The complex terrain of the region compounds these challenges. The Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), one of six National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) university-based regional climate centers, has been providing climate services since 1986 that support the unique needs of stakeholders in the mountainous region of the western U.S. This includes meteorological data, tools, and products for thousands of stations across the West, and gridded data products, such as based on PRISM for example, that are used for drought assessment among other needs. WRCC and partners have developed numerous web-based tools and products to support decision-making and research pertinent to the West. Changing climate and variability along with the diverse physical and human geographies of the western U.S. require continuous advancements in climate knowledge and applications development. Examples include the need for tools and model downscaling that support and inform adaptation, mitigation and resiliency planning; web-based analytics that would allow users to interact and explore temporal and spatial data and relationships, and products from new satellite sensors that can provide higher resolution information on soil moisture and vegetation health given the sparseness of in-situ observations for the vastness of the West. This presentation provides an overview of some insights, opportunities and challenges of providing current and future climate services in the West.

  20. Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning.

    PubMed

    Villela, D M; Mattos, E A de; Pinto, A S; Vieira, S A; Martinelli, L A

    2012-08-01

    The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km², today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions.

  1. The Nature of the Decadal Variability of Surface Climate Over the North Atlantic Ocean --- --- Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Sea Ice Interaction Organized by Damped Ocean Mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, F.; Liu, Z.

    2008-12-01

    The nature of the observed 11-14 year decadal variability of the surface climate over the North Atlantic Ocean is investigated using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) and its data-atmosphere configuration. A 14-16 year damped ocean mode, characterized by the decadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is found to be able to organize coupled ocean--atmosphere-- sea ice interaction in the North Atlantic and produce the decadal variability of the surface climate in this region. In the coupled simulation, two physical processes were found to be critical. The SAT-convection feedback is the local effect of SAT on oceanic convections in the Labrador Sea. Under cold episodes of surface climate in the North Atlantic, the damped ocean mode is pushed to its "positive" mode when the cold air induces stronger convective activity in the Labrador Sea. The stronger convections produce more vigorous AMOC and more heat transport into the subpolar North Atlantic and generates warmer SST and SAT. This gives rise to the warm episodes of surface climate. The sea ice-convection feedback is the effect of salinity anomaly on oceanic convections. The aforementioned warmer SAT induces more sea ice melting and results in low sea surface salinity in the northern subpolar gyre, especially in Irminger Sea. After the low salinity is transported into Labrador Sea, it suppresses local convective activity and acts jointly with SAT-convection feedback to switch the damped ocean mode into its "negative" mode. The damped ocean mode was uncovered in the stochastic atmospheric simulation and found to be responsible for the decadal time scale in the coupled simulations. However, the stochastic atmospheric simulation fails maintaining the decadal variability of ocean temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic both at surface and subsurface. In fact, given the insurmountable damping effect of the stochastic atmosphere, it is impossible to sustain the decadal

  2. Objective calibration of regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellprat, O.; Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; SchäR, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate models are subject to high parametric uncertainty induced by poorly confined model parameters of parameterized physical processes. Uncertain model parameters are typically calibrated in order to increase the agreement of the model with available observations. The common practice is to adjust uncertain model parameters manually, often referred to as expert tuning, which lacks objectivity and transparency in the use of observations. These shortcomings often haze model inter-comparisons and hinder the implementation of new model parameterizations. Methods which would allow to systematically calibrate model parameters are unfortunately often not applicable to state-of-the-art climate models, due to computational constraints facing the high dimensionality and non-linearity of the problem. Here we present an approach to objectively calibrate a regional climate model, using reanalysis driven simulations and building upon a quadratic metamodel presented by Neelin et al. (2010) that serves as a computationally cheap surrogate of the model. Five model parameters originating from different parameterizations are selected for the optimization according to their influence on the model performance. The metamodel accurately estimates spatial averages of 2 m temperature, precipitation and total cloud cover, with an uncertainty of similar magnitude as the internal variability of the regional climate model. The non-linearities of the parameter perturbations are well captured, such that only a limited number of 20-50 simulations are needed to estimate optimal parameter settings. Parameter interactions are small, which allows to further reduce the number of simulations. In comparison to an ensemble of the same model which has undergone expert tuning, the calibration yields similar optimal model configurations, but leading to an additional reduction of the model error. The performance range captured is much wider than sampled with the expert-tuned ensemble and the presented

  3. Abrupt Climate Changes Caused by a Collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: Implications for Optimal Economic Climate Policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, K.; Bradford, D. F.

    2001-12-01

    Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). This circulation system now warms northwestern Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited THC collapse could produce severe cooling in northwestern Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Our analysis shows that significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions may be justified to avoid or delay even small (and arguably realistic) damages from an uncertain THC collapse. Detecting a change in the THC before a potential collapse enables the policy maker to improve climate policy (as measured by an increased per-capita consumption). The considerable economic value of detecting a potential THC collapse early enough has implications for the design of an ocean observation system.

  4. Using WRF for Regional Climate Modeling: An Emphasis on the Southeast U.S. for Future Air Quality

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation describes preliminary analysis of a five-member regional climate ensemble (developed by AMAD and its contractors, including UNC) to determine if there is any consensus on projected changes to the placement of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH, or Bermuda...

  5. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  6. Regional Feedbacks Between the Ocean and the Atmosphere in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, L.; Garcia, M.; Kelly, K. A.; Booth, J. F.

    2012-12-01

    The ocean acts to buffer changes in the climate system with the upper 800m of the ocean taking up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system. On interannual time scales, surface heat fluxes damp the low-frequency heat content anomalies in some areas of the ocean where heat anomalies can be released back to the atmosphere. Analysis of satellite altimetry observations of SSH (sea surface height) as a proxy for upper ocean heat content and net suface heat flux from OAFlux (Objectively Analyzed air-sea fluxes) 993-2009 allows the identification of the times of the year and the locations in the North Atlantic where heat content anomalies are driving surface fluxes. Heat content has six month persistence while surface flux has at most one month persistence. Times series for each month of the year at each location are created to examine the lagged correlation between upper ocean heat content and the net surface heat fluxes. The heat content anomalies south of the Gulf Stream in June through November are negatively correlated with surface fluxes in November with a warmer ocean leading to surface fluxes out of the ocean. In this region, the mixed-layer by November reaches 100 m and the previous summer's stored heat is accessible to the atmosphere. The high correlations continue into December and January. By February, the correlation is no longer significant. In the region between 15N and 40N off the coast of Africa, January through May heat content are anti-correlated with surface fluxes in May. In May at this location, the climatological sensible heat flux is into the ocean, the planetary boundary layer is stable and stratocumulus clouds are common. Significant correlations in the summer are also found in the central subpolar North Atlantic. This analysis suggests that locally ocean heat content anomalies can feedback to the atmosphere, but only during certain times of the year. The impact on the atmosphere in late fall and early winter can influence of the

  7. Ocean circulation in the southern Benguela region from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene: tracking Agulhas leakage into the SE Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrick, Benjamin; McClymont, Erin; Felder, Sojna; Leng, Melanie

    2013-04-01

    The transition from the warmth of the middle Pliocene to the large amplitude, 100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene provides a way to understand the forcings and impacts of regional and global climate change. Here, we investigate changes in ocean circulation over the period from 3.5 Ma to present using a marine sediment core, ODP Site 1087 (31o28'S, 15o19'E, 1374m water depth). ODP 1087 is located in the South-east Atlantic Ocean, outside the Benguela upwelling region. Its location allows investigation of the history of the heat and salt transfer to the Atlantic Ocean from the Indian Ocean ("Agulhas leakage"), which plays an important part in the global thermohaline circulation. It is not known how this transfer reacted to generally warmer global temperatures during the mid-Pliocene, nor to the transition to a globally cooler climate in the early Pleistocene. Our approach is to apply several organic geochemistry proxies and foraminiferal analyses to reconstruct the history of ODP 1087. These include the U37K' index to reconstruct sea surface temperatures, pigment analysis for understanding productivity changes, and foraminifera assemblage analysis to detect the presence of different water masses at the site. We have identified changes in SSTs and biological productivity that we argue to reflect shifts in the position of the Benguela upwelling cells, and a changing influence of Agulhas leakage. Our new data reveal a different organization in the Southeast Atlantic. It shows that during the Pliocene ODP 1087 was dominated by Benguela upwelling which had shifted south. We find no evidence for Agulhas leakage during the mid Pliocene, which could mean that Agulhas Leakage was severely reduced during the mid Pliocene. The implications of these results for understanding Plio-Pleistocene climate changes will be explored here.

  8. Drivers of diel and regional variations of halocarbon emissions from the tropical North East Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hepach, H.; Quack, B.; Ziska, F.; Fuhlbrügge, S.; Atlas, E. L.; Krüger, K.; Peeken, I.; Wallace, D. W. R.

    2014-02-01

    Methyl iodide (CH3I), bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), which are produced naturally in the oceans, take part in ozone chemistry both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The significance of oceanic upwelling regions for emissions of these trace gases in the global context is still uncertain although they have been identified as important source regions. To better quantify the role of upwelling areas in current and future climate, this paper analyzes major factors that influenced halocarbon emissions from the tropical North East Atlantic including the Mauritanian upwelling during the DRIVE expedition. Diel and regional variability of oceanic and atmospheric CH3I, CHBr3 and CH2Br2 was determined along with biological and physical parameters at six 24 h-stations. Low oceanic concentrations of CH3I from 0.1-5.4 pmol L-1 were equally distributed throughout the investigation area. CHBr3 and CH2Br2 from 1.0 to 42.4 pmol L-1 and to 9.4 pmol L-1, respectively were measured with maximum concentrations close to the Mauritanian coast. Atmospheric CH3I, CHBr3, and CH2Br2 of up to 3.3, 8.9, and 3.1 ppt, respectively were detected above the upwelling, as well as up to 1.8, 12.8, and 2.2 ppt at the Cape Verdean coast. While diel variability in CH3I emissions could be mainly ascribed to oceanic non-biological production, no main driver was identified for its emissions over the entire study region. In contrast, biological parameters showed the greatest influence on the regional distribution of sea-to-air fluxes of bromocarbons. The diel impact of wind speed on bromocarbon emissions increased with decreasing distance to the coast. The height of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) influenced halocarbon emissions via its influence on atmospheric mixing ratios. Oceanic and atmospheric halocarbons correlated well in the study region, and in combination with high oceanic CH3I, CHBr3 and CH2Br2 concentrations, local hot spots of atmospheric halocarbons could

  9. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This

  10. Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  11. Regional Climate Change Projections over Northeast Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassain Sales, Domingo; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; Cavalcante, Arnóbio M. B.; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco; Martins de Araújo Junior, Luiz; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro

    2013-04-01

    Climate change and climate change impact studies often require a spatial resolution beyond the horizontal grid spacing of the data generated by Global Climate Models (GCMs). Dynamical Downscaling is one of techniques that allow regionalization of information from such models, in which the GCM data drive a Regional Climate Model (RCM) that in turn, at least theoretically, presents the climatological fields in more detail and can add value to climatic analysis. In this context, CORDEX is a coordinated experiment that standardizes dynamical downscaling simulations over continental regions, to provide a contribution from the regional climate modeling community to the IPCC/AR5 and beyond. Because computer resources are limited, a modeling group involved in CORDEX typically chooses one or few of the suggested domains, and use one or a few CMIP5 GCM data to drive its regional model. At the State University of Ceará (UECE), in Brazil, we used RAMS6.0 (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Version 6.0), driven by HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Enviroment Model Version 2 - Earth System) data, over a extended CORDEX Central America domain (longitude: 124.5W to 24.5W, latitude: 33.5N to 17.5S). This work presents the evaluation of climatological features of precipitation and temperature over Northeast Brazil region (longitude: 47W to 34.5W, latitude: 2.5S to 17.5S) for 20 years of the historical period (1985-2005) evaluating short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079-2099) changes, under the RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 scenarios. For the historical period, the results were compared against several observed data sets, in order to evaluate the performance of RAMS6.0 nested to HadGEM2-ES. The correlation between the simulated and observed annual cycle of precipitation is high (above 0.93). RAMS6.0 shows a wet bias of 0.706 mm/day that is larger than HadGEM2-ES bias (0.197 mm/day), however the regional model corrects the month of maximum precipitation (the global model

  12. Challenging some tenets of Regional Climate Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laprise, R.; de Elía, R.; Caya, D.; Biner, S.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Diaconescu, E.; Leduc, M.; Alexandru, A.; Separovic, L.

    2008-08-01

    Nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are increasingly used for climate-change projections in order to achieve spatial resolutions that would be computationally prohibitive with coupled global climate models. RCMs are commonly thought to behave as a sort of sophisticated magnifying glass to perform dynamical downscaling, which is to add fine-scale details upon the large-scale flow provided as time-dependent lateral boundary condition. Regional climate modelling is a relatively new approach, initiated less than twenty years ago. The interest for the approach has grown rapidly as it offers a computationally affordable means of entering into appealing applications of timely societal relevance, such as high-resolution climate-change projections and seasonal prediction. There exists however a need for basic research aiming at establishing firmly the strengths and limitations of the technique. This paper synthesises the results of a stream of investigations on the merits and weaknesses of the nested approach, initiated almost a decade ago by some members of our team. This short paper revisits some commonly accepted notions amongst practitioners of Regional Climate Modelling, in the form of four tenets that will be challenged: (1) RCMs are capable of generating small-scale features absent in the driving fields supplied as lateral boundary conditions; (2) The generated small scales have the appropriate amplitudes and statistics; (3) The generated small scales accurately represent those that would be present in the driving data if it were not limited by resolution; (4) In performing dynamical downscaling, RCMs operate as a kind of sophisticated magnifying glass, in the sense that the small scales that are generated are uniquely defined for a given set of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). From the partial failure of the last two tenets emerges the notion of internal variability, which has often been thought to be negligible in one-way nested models due to the control

  13. Timescales and regions of the sensitivity of Atlantic meridional volume and heat transport: Toward observing system design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heimbach, Patrick; Wunsch, Carl; Ponte, Rui M.; Forget, Gael; Hill, Chris; Utke, Jean

    2011-09-01

    A dual (adjoint) model is used to explore elements of the oceanic state influencing the meridional volume and heat transports (MVT and MHT) in the sub-tropical North Atlantic so as to understand their variability and to provide the elements of useful observational program design. Focus is on the effect of temperature (and salinity) perturbations. On short timescales (months), as expected, the greatest sensitivities are to local disturbances, but as the timescales extend back to a decade and longer, the region of influence expands to occupy much of the Atlantic basin and significant areas of the global ocean, although the influence of any specific point or small area tends to be quite weak. The propagation of information in the dual solution is a clear manifestation of oceanic teleconnections. It takes place through identifiable "dual" Kelvin, Rossby, and continental shelf-waves with an interpretable physics, in particular in terms of dual expressions of barotropic and baroclinic adjustment processes. Among the notable features are the relatively fast timescales of influence (albeit weak in amplitude) between 26°N and the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, the absence of dominance of the sub-polar North Atlantic, significant connections to the Agulhas leakage region in the southeast Atlantic on timescales of 5-10 years, and the marked sensitivity propagation of Doppler-shifted Rossby waves in the Southern Ocean on timescales of a decade and beyond. Regional, as well as time-dependent, differences between MVT and MHT sensitivities highlight the lack of a simple correspondence between their variability. Some implications for observing systems for the purpose of climate science are discussed.

  14. Decadal-Scale Tropical North Atlantic Climate Variability Recorded in Slow Growing Cape Verde Corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moses, C. S.; Swart, P. K.; Dodge, R. E.; Helmle, K. P.; Thorrold, S.

    2002-12-01

    The decadal to century scale climate variability of the tropical North Atlantic has major implications for both neighboring coastal and inland areas. Changes in patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and SST anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical North Atlantic are known to affect rainfall in Florida, South America, and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the number of major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic. Because of the significance of these connections, it is important to further increase our predictive capacity for the recognition of trends and cycles in tropical North Atlantic SST and SSTA. Located at 15° N latitude off the west coast of sub-Saharan Africa, the Cape Verde Islands are an ideal geographic location to search for records of the Tropical North Atlantic Index (TNA). Such patterns are present in proxy indicators of climate (O, C, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) recorded in the skeletons of slow growing corals, such as Siderastrea radians, found in Cape Verde (growth rate = 1-2 mm/yr). These corals represent an archive for SST and SSTA records that exceed the instrumental period of the eastern tropical North Atlantic. We cored corals from several different locations within the Cape Verde archipelago and analyzed them for stable isotopes (δ13C and δ18O) and minor elements (Sr, Mg, and Ba). The δ18O signal present in these corals shows a distinct relationship to the TNA over the better part of the last 100 years. In addition, the δ18O record in several of these corals also records the onset of the latest Sahel (11°-18° N in Africa) drought which began in 1970. The Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca records of these corals indicate a slight warming of the waters around Cape Verde during the last 100 years, as well as accurately recording the El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98. The correlations present between the records in these corals and the known instrumental record for the eastern tropical North Atlantic suggests that the fluctuations recorded in the proxy indicators may be

  15. Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Knowledge Gaps, Planned Observations to Address Them, and Implications for Global Climate Change Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Redemann, Jens; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.; Haywood, J.; Luna, B.; Abel, S.

    2015-01-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded

  16. Aerosol-cloud interactions in the South-East Atlantic: knowledge gaps, planned observations to address them, and implications for global climate change modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Redemann, Jens; Wood, Robert; Zuidema, Paquita; Haywood, James; Luna, Bernadette; Abel, Steven

    2015-04-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (CLoud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded

  17. Wave heights in the 21st century Arctic Ocean simulated with a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khon, V. C.; Mokhov, I. I.; Pogarskiy, F. A.; Babanin, A.; Dethloff, K.; Rinke, A.; Matthes, H.

    2014-04-01

    While wave heights globally have been growing over recent decades, observations of their regional trends vary. Simulations of future wave climate can be achieved by coupling wave and climate models. At present, wave heights and their future trends in the Arctic Ocean remain unknown. We use the third-generation wave forecast model WAVEWATCH-III forced by winds and sea ice concentration produced within the regional model HIRHAM, under the anthropogenic scenario SRES-A1B. We find that significant wave height and its extremes will increase over different inner Arctic areas due to reduction of sea ice cover and regional wind intensification in the 21st century. The opposite tendency, with a slight reduction in wave height appears for the Atlantic sector and the Barents Sea. Our results demonstrate the complex wave response in the Arctic Ocean to a combined effect of wind and sea ice forcings in a climate-change scenario during the 21st century.

  18. 600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, A.; Vieten, R.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most-recently published AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years with a time lag of 10-20 years. The time lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time periods of decreased rainfall. Over the past 600 years there are two intervals of increased Mg/Ca and δ13C values

  19. The relationship of boundary layer clouds in the tropical southeast Atlantic to absorbing aerosols, meteorology and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuidema, P.; Adebiyi, A. A.; Ramajiguru, L.

    2015-12-01

    Ascension Island, a remote island located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean within the trade-wind region oat 8S, 14.5W, experiences the outflow of biomass-burning aerosols from continental Africa, over 2000 km away, from July through November, peaking in August and September. The shortwave-absorbing free-tropospheric aerosols, located in a region of high solar irradiance, provide a climate warming that is poorly represented in global aerosol climate models. The low clouds can respond to the smoke layer in myriad possible ways that are not yet well-documented. The shortwave-warming can stabilize the free-troposphere, enhancing the low cloud fraction. The deepening boundary layer and subsiding smoke layer also increase the likelihood of aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions. Interest in this climate regime is supporting an observational strategy of a year-long DOE ARM Mobile Facility deployment to Ascension (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds, or LASIC), and an NSF aircraft campaign (ObservatioNs of Fire's Impact on the southeast atlantic REgion, or ONFIRE) based on Sao Tome Island. These campaigns will be integrated with NASA, UK and African activities sharing similar goals based further south in Namibia. Initial analysis is distinguishing meteorology from aerosol impacts on the boundary layer cloud fields. The forward trajectories of emissions from over 24,000 fire sources on continental Africa show that a free-tropospheric jet can advect aerosols to above Ascension island in just one-two days. The fast transport time encourages retention of signatures of the fire sources, in particular the radiatively-crucial single-scattering albedo value. Thereafter, a deep land-based anticyclonic high recirculates over one-third of these trajectories back to the African continent, explaining the widespread extent of the aerosol layer. The free-tropospheric jet also reduces the mean atmospheric subsidence independently of shortwave absorption by the aerosols

  20. The Barrier Layer of the Atlantic Warmpool: Formation Mechanism and Influence on the Mean Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Jang, C. J.

    2012-04-20

    Many Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) tend to overestimate the salinity in the Atlantic warm pool or the Northwestern Tropical Atlantic (NWTA) and underestimate the surface salinity in the subtropical salinity maxima region. Most of these models also suffer from a sea-surface temperature (SST) bias in the NWTA region, leading to suggestions that the upper ocean salinity stratification may need to be improved in order to improve the Barrier Layer (BL) simulations and thus the SST through BL-SST-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) feedbacks. In the present study, we use a CGCM to perform a set of idealized numerical experiments to test and understand the sensitivity of the BL and consequently SST in the NWTA region to freshwater flux and hence the upper ocean salinity stratification. We find that the BL of the NWTA is sensitive to upper ocean salinity changes in the Amazon river discharge region and the subtropical salinity maxima region. The BL phenomenon is further manifested by the formation of winter temperature inversions in our model simulations, the maximum magnitude of inversions being about 0.20 C. The atmo- spheric response causes a statistically significant reduction of mean precipitation and SST in the equatorial Atlantic region and helps improve the respective biases by 10-15 %. In the region of improved BL simulation, the SST change is positive and in the right direction of bias correction, albeit weak.

  1. Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

    PubMed

    Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

    2016-03-15

    Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles. PMID:26903635

  2. Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities

    PubMed Central

    Barton, Andrew D.; Finkel, Zoe V.; Stock, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951–2000) and future (2051–2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec−1), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec−1. The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles. PMID:26903635

  3. Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

    PubMed

    Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

    2016-03-15

    Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

  4. Regional climate change in the Northern Adriatic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zampieri, M.; Giorgi, F.; Lionello, P.; Nikulin, G.

    An analysis of the climate change signal for seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Northern Adriatic region is presented here. We collected 43 regional climate simulations covering the target area, including experiments produced in the context of the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects, and additional experiments produced by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The ability of the models to simulate the present climate in terms of mean and interannual variability is discussed and the insufficient reproduction of some features, such as the intensity of summer precipitation, are shown. The contribution to the variance associated with the intermodel spread is computed. The changes of mean and interannual variability are analyzed for the period 2071-2100 in the PRUDENCE runs (A2 scenario) and the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (A1B scenario) for the other runs. Ensemble results show a major warming at the end of the 21st century. Warming will be larger in the A2 scenario (about 5.5 K in summer and 4 K in winter) than in the A1B. Precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer by 20% (+0.5 mm/day and -1 mm/day over the Alps, respectively). The climate change signal for scenario A1B in the period 2021-2050 is significant for temperature, but not yet for precipitation. In summer, interannual variability is projected to increase for temperature and for precipitation. Winter interannual variability change is different among scenarios. A reduction of precipitation is found for A2, while for A1B a reduction of temperature interannual variability is observed.

  5. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  6. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  7. Climatic and limnological changes associated with the Younger Dryas in Atlantic Canada

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, S.E.; Smol, J.P.; Walker, I.R.

    1993-03-01

    Pollen, diatom and chironomid fossils from the sediments of a core from Brier Island Bog Lake, Nova Scotia were studied in an attempt to relate changes in microfossil composition to a climatic cooling in Atlantic Canada correlative with the European Younger Dryas ca. 10 to 11 ka. Our paleolimnological data were then compared to similar types of data from Splan Pond, New Brunswick to determine if there were any significant differences between a coastal and a more inland site. Nonarboreal pollen was dominant throughout the Brier Island core and the interval 10.0-11.0 ka did not show the typical decline in Picea and increases in tundra-like vegetation characteristic of many sites in Atlantic Canada. However, the limnological indicators did undergo marked changes in taxon composition. The chironomid assemblage was initially dominated by shallow-water, warm-adapted chironomid taxa followed by abundant Sergentia (a cold stenotherm) during 10-11 ka. Sergentia disappeared in the {open_quotes}post Younger Dryas{close_quotes} interval and the warm-adapted genera resumed dominance. Chironomid-inferred paleotemperature reconstructions revealed that at both Brier Island Bog Lake and Splan Pond, summer surface-water temperatures dropped abruptly to between 13 and 17{degrees}C during the 10-11 ka interval, suggesting that a cooler climate was present in Atlantic Canada correlative with the European Younger Dryas. Diatom assemblage changes during the same period corroborate the occurrence of limnological fluctuations. 40 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  9. Influence of Regional Climate Model spatial resolution on wind climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Nikulin, G.; Jones, C.

    2010-12-01

    Global and regional climate models are being run at increasingly fine horizontal and vertical resolution with the goal of increased skill. However, relatively few studies have quantified the change in modeled wind climates that derives from applying a Regional Climate Model (RCM) at varying resolutions, and the response to varying resolution may be highly non-linear since most models run in climate mode are hydrostatic. Thus, herein we examine the influence of grid-resolution on modelled wind speeds and gusts and derived extremes thereof over southern Scandinavia using output from the Rossby Centre (RCA3) RCM run at four different resolutions from 50 x 50 km to 6 x 6 km, and with two different vertical grid-spacings. Domain averaged fifty-year return period wind speeds and wind gusts derived using the method of moments approach to compute the Gumbel parameters, increase with resolution (Table 1), though the change is strongly mediated by the model grid-cell surface characteristics. Power spectra of the 3-hourly model time-step ‘instantaneous’ wind speeds and daily wind gusts at all four resolutions show clear peaks in the variance associated with bi-annual, annual, seasonal and synoptic frequencies. The variance associated with these peaks is enhanced with increased resolution, though not in a monotonic fashion, and is more marked in wind gusts than wind speeds. Relative to in situ observations, the model generally underestimates the variance, particularly associated with the synoptic time scale, even for the highest resolution simulations. There is some evidence to suggest that the change in the power spectra with horizontal resolution is less marked in the transition from 12.5 km to 6.25 km, than from 50 to 25 km, or 25 km to 12.5 km.Table 1. Domain averaged mean annual wind speed (U), 50-year return period extreme wind speed (U50yr) and wind gust (Gust50yr) (m/s) from the four RCA3 simulations at different resolution based on output from 1987-2008. The

  10. Educator Effectiveness Series: Assessing School Climate. Q&A with Jonathan Cohen, Ph.D. REL Mid-Atlantic Webinar

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    The REL Mid-Atlantic Webinar discussed the elements in a positive school climate and shared different methods for assessing school data, including the Comprehensive School Climate Inventory. The Q&A presented in this document address the questions participants had for Dr. Cohen following the webinar. The webinar recording and PowerPoint…

  11. Seasonal Simulation of Atlantic Hurricanes using the FSU/COAPS Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cocke, S.; Shin, D.; Lim, Y.; Larow, T.

    2009-05-01

    We use the FSU/COAPS climate model to study cyclogenesis, evolution, intra- to interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin and possible changes in activity due to climate change. The first phase of this project involves the simulation of recent year climatic conditions using observed SSTs. The second phase, currently underway, will simulate future climate scenarios using SSTs from IPCC climate model projections. The climate model is run at moderately high resolution (T126 or approximately 1 degree) and with 27 vertical levels. The model generates hurricane-like vortices that bear remarkable resemblance to their real-world counterparts: a warm core with cyclonic inflow at lower levels, anticyclonic outflow aloft, deep central pressures and intense precipitation. The genesis location and tracks are consistent with climatological observations. While the model produces fewer very intense storms (Category 4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) than observed, the total number of storms and interannual variability is very reasonable when compared to the historical record. In order assess the ability to simulate tropical cyclone activity on seasonal timescales, we run an ensemble of 4 6-month simulations for 20 years (1986-2005) using prescribed weekly sea surface temperatures. The simulation time period covers the North Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to November 30. Each ensemble member was initialized with a different atmospheric initial condition (near June 1 of the respective year) from ECMWF analyses. We find that for the Atlantic Basin, the correlation between the simulated and observed number of storms was approximately 0.78. The seasonality of the storms was similar to the observed, with most storms occurring in August and September, though not as sharply peaked. We further found that there can be large sensitivity to cyclogenesis using different model parameterizations. Pending completion of the second phase of the project, and

  12. Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gogineni, Sivaprasad; Thomas, Robert H.; Abdalati, Waleed (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    The Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a NASA-sponsored initiative with the prime objective of understanding the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In October 1998, PARCA investigators met to review activities of the previous year, assess the program's progress, and plan future investigations directed at accomplishing that objective. Some exciting results were presented and discussed, including evidence of dramatic thinning of the ice sheet near the southeastern coast. Details of the investigations and many of the accomplishments are given in this report, but major highlights are given in the Executive Summary of the report.

  13. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

    PubMed Central

    Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

  14. Climate change. Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures.

    PubMed

    Steinman, Byron A; Mann, Michael E; Miller, Sonya K

    2015-02-27

    The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed "AMO" and "PMO," respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or "false pause" in warming of the past decade. PMID:25722410

  15. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

    PubMed

    Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

  16. Climate change. Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures.

    PubMed

    Steinman, Byron A; Mann, Michael E; Miller, Sonya K

    2015-02-27

    The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed "AMO" and "PMO," respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or "false pause" in warming of the past decade.

  17. Origin of millennial-scale climate instabilities in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billups, K.; Scheinwald, A.; Dahl, P.

    2013-12-01

    We have generated a high resolution (~250-500 year) planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope record (Globigerinoides ruber white, senso lato) spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 6 through 8 in the northwestern subtropical Atlantic (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 172 Site 1059). The record fills a gap in an about 1.3 million year long time series of millennial-scale surface ocean hydrography in this region. We test the hypothesis that sub-orbital climate signals are linked to a response to precession forcing in tropical latitudes. Power spectra provide evidence for an increase in the length of half precession cycles as the 19 kyr precession period disappears from the insolation forcing at about 320 Ka in first order support of the hypothesis. In the time series, half precession (and quarter precession cycles when present) are evident as double (and quadruple) peaks within the given precession framework. However, in the time series there is no match between the amplitude modulation of the precession signal and its harmonics. During the time interval between 340-0 Ka (MIS 9-1) when the temporal resolution is high (250 year time step), the power spectra also contain significant peaks in the Dansgaard-Oeschger band (~1-8-1.5 kyr). Comparison of filter output with the time series, however, illustrates that there are only few instances where these types of variations are distinct in the foraminiferal δ18O record. We conclude that the evolution of half precession cycles over the time interval is largely consistent with a response to low latitude insolation, such as introduced by insolation maxima at the equinoxes and solstices (e.g., Short et al., 1991). Our analysis also shows that quarter precession cycles are present in the time series, at least intermittently, but we cannot uniquely tie them to changes in the primary precession signal. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating variations in the original time series to guide interpretations of significant peaks in

  18. Pacific and Atlantic influences on Mesoamerican climate over the past millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahle, D. W.; Burnette, D. J.; Diaz, J. Villanueva; Heim, R. R.; Fye, F. K.; Paredes, J. Cerano; Soto, R. Acuna; Cleaveland, M. K.

    2012-09-01

    A new tree-ring reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Mesoamerica from AD 771 to 2008 identifies megadroughts more severe and sustained than any witnessed during the twentieth century. Correlation analyses indicate strong forcing of instrumental and reconstructed June PDSI over Mesoamerica from the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Spectral analyses of the 1,238-year reconstruction indicate significant concentrations of variance at ENSO, sub-decadal, bi-decadal, and multidecadal timescales. Instrumental and model-based analyses indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is important to warm season climate variability over Mexico. Ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic is not strongly correlated with the June PDSI reconstruction during the instrumental era, but may be responsible for the strong multidecadal variance detected in the reconstruction episodically over the past millennium. June drought indices in Mesoamerica are negatively correlated with gridded June PDSI over the United States from 1950 to 2005, based on both instrumental and reconstructed data. Interannual variability in this latitudinal moisture gradient is due in part to ENSO forcing, where warm events favor wet June PDSI conditions over the southern US and northern Mexico, but dryness over central and southern Mexico (Mesoamerica). Strong anti-phasing between multidecadal regimes of tree-ring reconstructed June PDSI over Mesoamerica and reconstructed summer (JJA) PDSI over the Southwest has also been detected episodically over the past millennium, including the 1950-1960s when La Niña and warm Atlantic SSTs prevailed, and the 1980-1990s when El Niño and cold Atlantic SSTs prevailed. Several Mesoamerican megadroughts are reconstructed when wetness prevailed over the Southwest, including the early tenth century Terminal Classic Drought, implicating El Niño and Atlantic SSTs in this intense and widespread drought that may have contributed to social

  19. Mid-Atlantic Region: A Report Identifying and Addressing the Educational Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    US Department of Education, 2011

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the deliberations of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Advisory Committee (RAC), one of 10 RACs established under the Educational Technical Assistance Act of 2002 (20 U.S.C. sections 9601 et. seq.) to assess the educational needs of the region. The committee's report outlines the educational needs across the District of Columbia and…

  20. Genomic organization of duplicated major histocompatibility complex class I regions in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

    PubMed Central

    Lukacs, Morten F; Harstad, Håvard; Grimholt, Unni; Beetz-Sargent, Marianne; Cooper, Glenn A; Reid, Linda; Bakke, Hege G; Phillips, Ruth B; Miller, Kristina M; Davidson, William S; Koop, Ben F

    2007-01-01

    Background We have previously identified associations between major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I and resistance towards bacterial and viral pathogens in Atlantic salmon. To evaluate if only MHC or also closely linked genes contributed to the observed resistance we ventured into sequencing of the duplicated MHC class I regions of Atlantic salmon. Results Nine BACs covering more than 500 kb of the two duplicated MHC class I regions of Atlantic salmon were sequenced and the gene organizations characterized. Both regions contained the proteasome components PSMB8, PSMB9, PSMB9-like and PSMB10 in addition to the transporter for antigen processing TAP2, as well as genes for KIFC1, ZBTB22, DAXX, TAPBP, BRD2, COL11A2, RXRB and SLC39A7. The IA region contained the recently reported MHC class I Sasa-ULA locus residing approximately 50 kb upstream of the major Sasa-UBA locus. The duplicated class IB region contained an MHC class I locus resembling the rainbow trout UCA locus, but although transcribed it was a pseudogene. No other MHC class I-like genes were detected in the two duplicated regions. Two allelic BACs spanning the UBA locus had 99.2% identity over 125 kb, while the IA region showed 82.5% identity over 136 kb to the IB region. The Atlantic salmon IB region had an insert of 220 kb in comparison to the IA region containing three chitin synthase genes. Conclusion We have characterized the gene organization of more than 500 kb of the two duplicated MHC class I regions in Atlantic salmon. Although Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout are closely related, the gene organization of their IB region has undergone extensive gene rearrangements. The Atlantic salmon has only one class I UCA pseudogene in the IB region while trout contains the four MHC UCA, UDA, UEA and UFA class I loci. The large differences in gene content and most likely function of the salmon and trout class IB region clearly argues that sequencing of salmon will not necessarily provide information

  1. On the Effects of Parameterized Mediterranean Overflow on North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, W.; Danabasoglu, G.; Large, W.

    2006-12-01

    A Mediterranean overflow parameterization has been implemented in the ocean component of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) to represent the sub-grid scale exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar and associated entrainment. It is evaluated by comparing solutions from the coarse resolution (nominally 3 degree) global ocean model to observations and high resolution process model results. The properties (temperature, salinity and volume) and depths of the inflow, outflow, entrainment and product waters are all close to observed estimates and stable after 300 years of integration. The seasonal cycle of the exchange has a reasonable amplitude, but its phase is advanced by three months from summer to spring. The improvement relative to either blocking the strait, or excavating a too wide channel is demonstrated. The effects on the circulation and properties of the North Atlantic are most prominent at about 1100 m. They include the formation of a realistic salt tongue across the basin and modified currents and younger water in the eastern basin offshore of the overflow. Climate impacts were assessed by comparing fully coupled climate models with and without the overflow parameterization after 300 years. The effects on North Atlantic sea surface temperature and heat flux do not match, suggesting an atmospheric response. Only minor differences were evident in the meridional overturning circulation and the ocean heat transport.

  2. Health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities in the Mid-Atlantic United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Luckow, Patrick; Fisher, Jeremy; Kempton, Willett; Levy, Jonathan I.

    2016-07-01

    Electricity from fossil fuels contributes substantially to both climate change and the health burden of air pollution. Renewable energy sources are capable of displacing electricity from fossil fuels, but the quantity of health and climate benefits depend on site-specific attributes that are not often included in quantitative models. Here, we link an electrical grid simulation model to an air pollution health impact assessment model and US regulatory estimates of the impacts of carbon to estimate the health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities of different sizes in two different locations. We find that offshore wind in the Mid-Atlantic is capable of producing health and climate benefits of between 54 and 120 per MWh of generation, with the largest simulated facility (3000 MW off the coast of New Jersey) producing approximately 690 million in benefits in 2017. The variability in benefits per unit generation is a function of differences in locations (Maryland versus New Jersey), simulated years (2012 versus 2017), and facility generation capacity, given complexities of the electrical grid and differences in which power plants are offset. This work demonstrates health and climate benefits of offshore wind, provides further evidence of the utility of geographically-refined modeling frameworks, and yields quantitative insights that would allow for inclusion of both climate and public health in benefits assessments of renewable energy.

  3. Regional climate: Design and analysis of computer experiments?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nychka, D. W.

    2011-12-01

    As attention shifts from broad global summaries of climate change to more specific regional impacts there is a need for data sciences to quantify the uncertainty in regional predictions. This talk will provide an overview on regional climate experiments with an emphasis on the statistical problems for interpreting these large and complex simulations. A regional climate model is a computer code based on physics that simulates the detailed flow of the atmosphere in a particular region from the large scale information of a global climate model. One intent is to compare simulations under current climate to future scenarios to infer the nature of climate change expected at a location. There exists a mature sub-discipline in engineering and statistics on the design and analysis of computer experiments. This talk will sketch how general methods from this area may apply to the interpretation of climate model experiments and to what extent the problems of interpreting climate projections are unique and require new ideas.

  4. The Influence of Glacial Ice Sheets on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Through Atmospheric Circulation Change under Glacial Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherriff-Tadano, S.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Yoshimori, M.; Oka, A.; Chan, W. L.

    2014-12-01

    It is well known that glacial ice sheets (Laurentide, Fennoscandian and Antarctic ice sheets) exert a large influence on the climate including the atmospheric circulation. Moreover, recent climate modeling studies suggest that glacial ice sheets have a large impact on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, the process by which the ice sheets impact on the AMOC is not yet fully understood. On the other hand, recent studies showed that surface wind changes play a crucial role on changes to the AMOC under glacial climate. Therefore, in this study, we investigate in detail, the process by which the ice sheet modifies the AMOC through surface wind change. Here we conduct numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) separately. Our method consists of 2 steps. First, from AGCM experiments, we evaluate the effect of glacial ice sheets on the surface wind. Second, from OGCM experiments, we evaluate the influence of the wind stress change on the AMOC by applying the surface wind change as a boundary condition, while leaving other boundary conditions (surface heat and water fluxes) unchanged. In addition, we conduct several sensitivity experiments. Using the AGCM, we explore individual ice sheet effect, ice sheet topography effect and albedo effect on surface wind change. Moreover, using the OGCM, we change the surface wind gradually or apply the surface wind change only at a specific region in order to explore the wind change effect in detail. We find that glacial ice sheets largely intensify the AMOC by surface wind change under glacial climate. Compare to other regions, it reveals that the wind change at the North Atlantic (NA) is a key region. There, the northern glacial ice sheet topography intensifies the Icelandic Low and anti-cyclonic circulation over the Laurentide ice sheet. However, this wind effect is effective only when the NA is not widely covered by sea ice

  5. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  6. A twentieth-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct the North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, W. A.; Matei, D.; Bersch, M.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Haak, H.; Lohmann, K.; Compo, G. P.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Marotzke, J.

    2015-04-01

    The observed North Atlantic multi-decadal variability for the period 1872-2009 is reconstructed with the Max Planck Institute ocean model, which is forced with an ensemble of the atmospheric twentieth century reanalysis. Special emphasis is put on the early part of the experiments, which includes a prominent climate variation during the 1920s. The experiments are in agreement with selected hydrographic records, indicating a transition from cold and fresh North Atlantic water properties, prior to the 1920 climate variation, towards warm and saline waters afterwards. Examining the variation reveals that sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies prior to the 1900s resemble a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation and associated weak winds result in a weak North Atlantic Current (NAC) and sub-polar gyre (SPG). This leads to a reduced transport of warm and saline waters into the higher latitudes. Simultaneously, Arctic freshwater release results in the accumulation of cold and fresh water properties, which cover the upper layers in the Labrador Sea and subsequently suppress convection. From the 1910s, the Arctic freshwater export is reduced, and, NAC and SPG are strengthened as a result of an increased SLP gradient over the North Atlantic. Concurrently, Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) increase. The intensified NAC, SPG, and AMOC redistribute sub-tropical water into the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, thereby increasing observed and modelled temperature and salinity during the 1920s.

  7. The role of meltwater-induced subsurface ocean warming in regulating the Atlantic meridional overturning in glacial climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brady, Esther C.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

    2011-10-01

    The Community Climate System Model version 3, (CCSM3) is used to investigate the effect of the high latitude North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature response in idealized freshwater hosing experiments on the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The hosing experiments covered a range of input magnitudes at two locations in a glacial background state. Subsurface subpolar ocean warms when freshwater is added to the high latitude North Atlantic (NATL cases) and weakly cools when freshwater is added to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM cases). All cases show subsurface ocean warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The sensitivity of the AMOC response to the location and magnitude of hosing is related to the induced subsurface temperature response, which affects the magnitude of the large-scale meridional pressure gradient at depth through the effect on upper ocean density. The high latitude subsurface warming induced in the NATL cases lowers the upper ocean density in the deepwater formation region enhancing a density reduction by local freshening. In the GOM cases the effect of SH warming partially offsets the effect of the high latitude freshening on the meridional density gradient. Following the end of hosing, a brief convective event occurs in the largest NATL cases which flushes some of the heat stored in the subsurface layers. This fuels a rapid rise in AMOC that lasts less than a couple of decades before subsequent freshening from increases in precipitation and sea ice melt reverses the initial increase in the meridional density gradient. Thereafter AMOC recovery slows to the rate found in comparable GOM cases. The result for these glacial transient hosing experiments is that the pace of the longer recovery is not sensitive to location of the imposed freshwater forcing.

  8. Climate programs update: USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub update

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    PROGRAM OVERVIEW: The overarching goal of the USDA SW Climate Hub is to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in addressing the effects of climate change including prolonged drought, increased insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. In the first year of operations, the SW Climate Hub (est. Februa...

  9. The timing of the last deglaciation in North Atlantic climate records.

    PubMed

    Waelbroeck, C; Duplessy, J C; Michel, E; Labeyrie, L; Paillard, D; Duprat, J

    2001-08-16

    To determine the mechanisms governing the last deglaciation and the sequence of events that lead to deglaciation, it is important to obtain a temporal framework that applies to both continental and marine climate records. Radiocarbon dating has been widely used to derive calendar dates for marine sediments, but it rests on the assumption that the 'apparent age' of surface water (the age of surface water relative to the atmosphere) has remained constant over time. Here we present new evidence for variation in the apparent age of surface water (or reservoir age) in the North Atlantic ocean north of 40 degrees N over the past 20,000 years. In two cores we found apparent surface-water ages to be larger than those of today by 1,230 +/- 600 and 1,940 +/- 750 years at the end of the Heinrich 1 surge event (15,000 years BP) and by 820 +/- 430 to 1,010 +/- 340 years at the end of the Younger Dryas cold episode. During the warm Bølling-Allerød period, between these two periods of large reservoir ages, apparent surface-water ages were comparable to present values. Our results allow us to reconcile the chronologies from ice cores and the North Atlantic marine records over the entire deglaciation period. Moreover, the data imply that marine carbon dates from the North Atlantic north of 40 degrees N will need to be corrected for these highly variable effects.

  10. Equilibrium of vegetation and climate at the European rear edge. A reference for climate change planning in mountainous Mediterranean regions.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Labourdette, Diego; Martínez, Felipe; Martín-López, Berta; Montes, Carlos; Pineda, Francisco D

    2011-05-01

    Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe's highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed.

  11. Results of APL rain gauge network measurements in mid-Atlantic coast region and comparisons of distributions with CCIR models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldhirsh, Julius; Gebo, Norman; Rowland, John

    1988-01-01

    In this effort are described cumulative rain rate distributions for a network of nine tipping bucket rain gauge systems located in the mid-Atlantic coast region in the vicinity of the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia. The rain gauges are situated within a gridded region of dimensions of 47 km east-west by 70 km north-south. Distributions are presented for the individual site measurements and the network average for the year period June 1, 1986 through May 31, 1987. A previous six year average distribution derived from measurements at one of the site locations is also presented. Comparisons are given of the network average, the CCIR (International Radio Consultative Committee) climatic zone, and the CCIR functional model distributions, the latter of which approximates a log normal at the lower rain rate and a gamma function at the higher rates.

  12. Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, B.; Corbett, D. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Kemp, A.; Lin, N.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2013-12-01

    Future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. Through ongoing, collaborative research we are employing new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic variability. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. We produced new, high-resolution proxy sea-level reconstructions to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset spans the alternation between the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' and 'Little Ice Age'. Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from four study areas (Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, future storm surges will be superimposed on background sea

  13. Climate Regionalization through Hierarchical Clustering: Options and Recommendations for Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badr, H. S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Dezfuli, A. K.

    2014-12-01

    Climate regionalization is an important but often under-emphasized step in studies of climate variability and predictions. While most investigations of regional climate or statistical/dynamical predictions do make at least an implicit attempt to focus on a study region or sub-regions that are climatically coherent in some respect, rigorous climate regionalization--in which the study area is divided on the basis of the most relevant climate metrics and at a resolution most appropriate to the data and the scientific question--has the potential to enhance the precision and explanatory power of climate studies in many cases. This is particularly true for climatically complex regions such as the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and Equatorial West Africa. Here we present an improved clustering method and a flexible, open-source software tool (R package "HiClimR") designed specifically for climate regionalization. As a demonstration, we apply HiClimR to regionalize the GHA on the basis of interannual precipitation variability in each calendar month and for three-month running seasons. Different clustering methods are tested to show the behavior of each method and provide recommendations for specific problems. This would underscore the applicability of our work to a wide range of climate issues, and enable researchers to easily and quickly learn how to apply our tools to their own problems. Both the proposed methodology and the R package can be easily used for a broad range of climate applications.

  14. A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America

    SciTech Connect

    Mearns, L. O.; Gutowski, William; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; McGinnis, Seth; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun

    2009-09-08

    There are two main uncertainties in determining future climate: the trajectories of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the response of the global climate system to any given set of future emissions [Meehl et al., 2007]. These uncertainties normally are elucidated via application of global climate models, which provide information at relatively coarse spatial resolutions. Greater interest in, and concern about, the details of climate change at regional scales has provided the motivation for the application of regional climate models, which introduces additional uncertainty [Christensen et al., 2007a]. These uncertainties in fi ne- scale regional climate responses, in contrast to uncertainties of coarser spatial resolution global models in which regional models are nested, now have been documented in numerous contexts [Christensen et al., 2007a] and have been found to extend to uncertainties in climate impacts [Wood et al., 2004; Oleson et al., 2007]. While European research in future climate projections has moved forward systematically to examine combined uncertainties from global and regional models [Christensen et al., 2007b], North American climate programs have lagged behind. To fi ll this research gap, scientists developed the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (-NARCCAP). The fundamental scientifi c motivation of this international program is to explore separate and combined uncertainties in regional projections of future climate change resulting from the use of multiple atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to drive multiple regional climate models (RCMs). An equally important, and related, motivation for this program is to provide the climate impacts and adaptation community with high- resolution regional climate change scenarios that can be used for studies of the societal impacts of climate change and possible adaptation strategies.

  15. Local and Remote Influences on Vertical Wind Shear over the Northern Tropical Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saravanan, R.; Zhu, X.

    2009-12-01

    Vertical wind shear is one of the most important parameters controlling the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes. It has been argued that in global warming scenarios, the mechanical effect of changing vertical wind shear may even trump the thermodynamic effect of increasing Atlantic sea surface temperatures, when it comes to projected trends in Atlantic hurricane activity. Despite its importance, little is known about the connection between vertical shear in the north Atlantic region and the global atmospheric circulation, apart from the well-known positive correlation with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we analyze the statistical relationship between vertical shear and features of the large-scale circulation such as the distribution of sea surface temperature and vertical motion. We examine whether this relationship is different on interannual timescales associated with ENSO as compared to the decadal timescales associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We also investigate how well the global general circulation models manage to simulate the observed vertical shear in this region, and its relationship to the large-scale circulation. Our analyses reveal an interesting sensitivity to air-sea coupling in model simulations of vertical shear. Another interesting property of vertical shear, as defined in the context of hurricane studies, is that it is positive definite, rather like precipitation. This means that it has a very nongaussian probability distribution on short timescales. We analyze how this nongaussianity changes when averaged over longer timescales.

  16. The Influence of North Atlantic Valves and Gateways on Neogene Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    Our current proxies for pCO2 suggest Neogene levels were relatively constant (~300 ± 100 ppm) except for the middle Miocene Climatic Optimum with estimates approaching 400 ± 100 ppm. Yet, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet became a polar ice sheet and permanent feature on Earth while large-scale Northern Hemisphere ice sheets waxed and waned with scant differences in pCO2. Three possibilities to explain these observations are: 1) our pCO2 proxies are incorrect; 2) Earth's climate is far more sensitive than our current model simulations suggest; or 3) tectonic differences overprinted accepted climate sensitivity to pCO2. Two marine gateways that influenced Neogene deep-water circulation are the Greenland-Scotland Ridge and the Central American Isthmus (CAI). Driven by mantle plume variations under Iceland, the GSR acted as a regulator of Northern Component Water (NCW, analogous to NADW) by controlling access to the dense polar waters to the north. During the latest Miocene and early Pliocene, mean depths along the GSR and NCW production were at their greatest. By the late Pliocene (~3 Ma), mantle plume activity increased and NCW production waned. Most researchers have focused on surface water changes (e.g., salinity) in relating closure of the CAI to Pliocene climate change. However, I propose that its primary influence came with the elimination of low-latitude, deep-water connection between the Atlantic and Pacific. Combined with vigorous NCW production, closure of the CAI re-distributed nutrients between the oceans. Carbon isotope and Cd/Ca profiles indicate that "modern" basin-to-basin differences started during the latest Miocene and were fully developed in the Pliocene. The South Atlantic path for NCW also delivered heat to the Southern Ocean, facilitating sea ice changes, as indicated by biosiliceous patterns. These tectonic boundary changes and their affects on surface and deep water circulation contributed to the Pliocene pause in global cooling that began in

  17. Regional Collaborations to Combat Climate Change: The Climate Science Centers as Strategies for Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morelli, T. L.; Palmer, R. N.

    2014-12-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) is part of a federal network of eight Climate Science Centers created to provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. The consortium approach taken by the CSCs allows the academic side of the Centers to gather expertise across departments, disciplines, and even institutions. This interdisciplinary approach is needed for successfully meeting regional needs for climate impact assessment, adaptive management, education, and stakeholder outreach. Partnership with the federal government facilitates interactions with the key on-the-ground stakeholders who are able to operationalize the results and conclusions of that research, monitor the progress of management actions, and provide feedback to refine future methodology and decisions as new information on climate impacts is discovered. For example, NE CSC researchers are analyzing the effect of climate change on the timing and volume of seasonal and annual streamflows and the concomitant effects on ecological and cultural resources; developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances which can enable adaptation of projected climate impacts; studying the effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought and stream temperature on brook trout habitats, spatial distribution and population persistence; and conducting assessments of northeastern regional climate projections and high-resolution downscaling. Project methods are being developed in collaboration with stakeholders and results are being shared broadly with federal, state, and other partners to implement and refine effective and adaptive management actions.

  18. First Evaluation of the CCAM Aerosol Simulation over Africa: Implications for Regional Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horowitz, H.; Garland, R. M.; Thatcher, M. J.; Naidoo, M.; van der Merwe, J.; Landman, W.; Engelbrecht, F.

    2015-12-01

    An accurate representation of African aerosols in climate models is needed to understand the regional and global radiative forcing and climate impacts of aerosols, at present and under future climate change. However, aerosol simulations in regional climate models for Africa have not been well-tested. Africa contains the largest single source of biomass-burning smoke aerosols and dust globally. Although aerosols are short-lived relative to greenhouse gases, black carbon in particular is estimated to be second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to warming on a global scale. Moreover, Saharan dust is exported great distances over the Atlantic Ocean, affecting nutrient transport to regions like the Amazon rainforest, which can further impact climate. Biomass burning aerosols are also exported from Africa, westward from Angola over the Atlantic Ocean and off the southeastern coast of South Africa to the Indian Ocean. Here, we perform the first extensive quantitative evaluation of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) aerosol simulation against monitored data, focusing on aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations over Africa. We analyze historical regional simulations for 1999 - 2012 from CCAM consistent with the experimental design of CORDEX at 50 km global horizontal resolution, through the dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim data reanalysis data, with the CMIP5 emissions inventory (RCP8.5 scenario). CCAM has a prognostic aerosol scheme for organic carbon, black carbon, sulfate, and dust, and non-prognostic sea salt. The CCAM AOD at 550nm was compared to AOD (observed at 440nm, adjusted to 550nm with the Ångström exponent) from long-term AERONET stations across Africa. Sites strongly impacted by dust and biomass burning and with long continuous records were prioritized. In general, the model captures the monthly trends of the AERONET data. This presentation provides a basis for understanding how well aerosol particles are represented over Africa in

  19. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  20. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2015-07-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  1. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2016-10-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  2. Mid-Atlantic Regional Training Center for Residential Construction Trades. Final Program Evaluation Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wasdyke (R. G.) & Associates, Annapolis, MD.

    A group of partners headed by the Home Builders Institute (HBI) created the Mid-Atlantic Regional Training (MART) Center for Residential Construction, with a primary focus on providing education and training services related to the masonry and carpentry trades at existing institutions in the District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, and West…

  3. ESTIMATING STREAMFLOW AND ASSOCIATED HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY, THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Methods to estimate streamflow and channel hydraulic geometry were developed for ungaged streams in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Observed mean annual streamflow and associated hydraulic geometry data from 75 gaging stations located in the Appalachian Plateau, the Ridge and Valley, an...

  4. A REGIONAL SCALE TOXICITY ASSESSMENT OF SEDIMENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), sediment samples were collected to assess toxicity on a regional scale in streams and rivers in the Mid-Atlantic U.S. in 1994, 1997 and 1998, and in the Colorado Rocky Mountains in 1994 and 1995. Sample sites...

  5. SELF-ORGANIZING MAPS FOR INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    A. new method was developed to perform an environmental assessment for the
    Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR). This was a combination of the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network and principal component analysis (PCA). The method is capable of clustering ecosystems in terms of envi...

  6. DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDEX OF BIOTIC INTEGRITY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    From 1993 to 1996, fish assemblage data were collected from 309 wadeable streams in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Highlands region as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program. Stream sites were selected with a probabilistic sampl...

  7. Manual for the Training of United States Fisheries Observer Corps Atlantic Region. Marine Bulletin 33.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merdinyan, Mark E.; Mortimer, Christine D.

    This manual has been produced for use in a four-week training program developed by University of Rhode Island fisheries educators for the training of United States citizens in the duties and responsibilities of observers placed on foreign fishing vessels operating in the Fisheries Conservation Zone in the Atlantic Region. The program combines…

  8. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #2: MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT (MARA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of this National Assessment effort mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990, EPA's Global Change Research Program is sponsoring the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA). With EPA sponsorship, a multi-disciplinary team of faculty members is leading the first a...

  9. Mid-Atlantic Region Special Education Instructional Materials Center. Final Technical Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cottrell, Raymond S.; Carter, Robert

    The final report of the Mid-Atlantic Region Special Education Instructional Materials Center (MAR-SEIMC) describes field services, information services, library services, and research and evaluation activities conducted from 1967 to August 1974. It is explained that 39 affiliate centers were established throughout Pennsylvania, New Jersey,…

  10. Connecting Regional Modeling Communities Across the Atlantic: The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII)

    EPA Science Inventory

    As any traveler crossing the Atlantic can attest, there certainly are differences between North America and Europe – differences in language, food, culture, and social attitudes, to name but a few. However, the “Old World” and “New World” have a lot in common as well; both region...

  11. Genetic discontinuity among regional populations of Lophelia perfusa in the North Atlantic Ocean

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morrison, Cheryl L.

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge of the degree to which populations are connected through larval dispersal is imperative to effective management, yet little is known about larval dispersal ability or population connectivity in Lophelia pertusa, the dominant framework-forming coral on the continental slope in the North Atlantic Ocean. Using nine microsatellite DNA markers, we assessed the spatial scale and pattern of genetic connectivity across a large portion of the range of L. pertusa in the North Atlantic Ocean. A Bayesian modeling approach found four distinct genetic groupings corresponding to ocean regions: Gulf of Mexico, coastal southeastern U.S., New England Seamounts, and eastern North Atlantic Ocean. An isolation-by-distance pattern was supported across the study area. Estimates of pairwise population differentiation were greatest with the deepest populations, the New England Seamounts (average FST = 0.156). Differentiation was intermediate with the eastern North Atlantic populations (FST = 0.085), and smallest between southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico populations (FST = 0.019), with evidence of admixture off the southeastern Florida peninsula. Connectivity across larger geographic distances within regions suggests that some larvae are broadly dispersed. Heterozygote deficiencies were detected within the majority of localities suggesting deviation from random mating. Gene flow between ocean regions appears restricted, thus, the most effective management scheme for L. pertusa involves regional reserve networks

  12. Genetic discontinuity among regional populations of Lophelia pertusa in the North Atlantic Ocean

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morrison, C.L.; Ross, S.W.; Nizinski, M.S.; Brooke, S.; Jarnegren, J.; Waller, R.G.; Johnson, R.L.; King, T.L.

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge of the degree to which populations are connected through larval dispersal is imperative to effective management, yet little is known about larval dispersal ability or population connectivity in Lophelia pertusa, the dominant framework-forming coral on the continental slope in the North Atlantic Ocean. Using nine microsatellite DNA markers, we assessed the spatial scale and pattern of genetic connectivity across a large portion of the range of L. pertusa in the North Atlantic Ocean. A Bayesian modeling approach found four distinct genetic groupings corresponding to ocean regions: Gulf of Mexico, coastal southeastern U. S., New England Seamounts, and eastern North Atlantic Ocean. An isolation-by-distance pattern was supported across the study area. Estimates of pairwise population differentiation were greatest with the deepest populations, the New England Seamounts (average FST = 0.156). Differentiation was intermediate with the eastern North Atlantic populations (FST = 0.085), and smallest between southeastern U. S. and Gulf of Mexico populations (FST = 0.019), with evidence of admixture off the southeastern Florida peninsula. Connectivity across larger geographic distances within regions suggests that some larvae are broadly dispersed. Heterozygote deficiencies were detected within the majority of localities suggesting deviation from random mating. Gene flow between ocean regions appears restricted, thus, the most effective management scheme for L. pertusa involves regional reserve networks. ?? 2011 US Government.

  13. A SURVEY OF FISH CONTAMINATION IN SMALL WADEABLE STREAMS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 1993 and 1994, fish tissue samples were collected from first, second and third order streams in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States.The tissue samples were prepared from whole fish from prioritized lists of Small Target Species and Large Target Species. The two types ...

  14. Curriculum Digest for the Training of United States Fisheries Observer Corps Atlantic Region. Marine Bulletin 34.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merdinyan, Mark E.; Mortimer, Christine D.

    This digest is intended to be used in conjunction with the text Manual for the Training of United States Fisheries Observers - Atlantic Region. The digest contains five elements; an organization of the training program into sections that allow cumulative learning experience; provides a chronology of these sections to provide optimum coverage and…

  15. INTEGRATION OF COASTAL ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS FOR THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAlA) Project began in 1994 as a partnership between USEPA's Region III Office and Office of Research and Development. This multi-year initiative was envisioned to: (1) improve the quality of environmental science and promote the use of sou...

  16. Supplementary report on the ground-water supplies of the Atlantic City region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barksdale, Henry C.; Sundstrom, Raymond W.; Brunstein, Maurice S.

    1936-01-01

    At present more potable water is taken from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand than from any other source of supply for the region. This sand is the sole source for some of the smaller communities on the barrier beaches. The original static head of the water in it at Atlantic City was between 20 and 25 feet above sea level. The head has been lowered more than 50 feet over much of the region,  and in parts of Atlantic City it has been lowered considerably more than 100 feet. A consideration of the principles governing the relation between salt water and fresh water in water-bearing sands indicates that the 800-foot sand probably contained salt water at a distance of 5 or 10 miles out from Atlantic City before any water was pumped from it. The evidence collected in this investigation indicates that the cone of depression created by the pumping from this sand in the Atlantic City region has probably extended inland to the intake area of the sand, the nearest part of which is probably about 40 miles from Atlantic City. If this is so, the conclusion is almost inescapable that it has also extended oceanward for a distance considerably greater than the 5 or 10 miles to the original zone of contact between the fresh and salt waters, and that salt water is probably being drawn toward the Atlantic City region through this sand. The time of its arrival will depend primarily upon the rate of pumping in the region and upon how much of the fresh water that originally lay between the region and the zone of contact must be removed before the salt water can reach the region. It may arrive in the near future if it advances in the form of a narrow tongue. On the other hand, if it advances along a broader front; so that more of the intervening fresh water must be pumped out of the formation, its arrival may be delayed for some time.

  17. The climate influence on the mid-depth Northeast Atlantic gyres viewed by cold-water corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montero-Serrano, Jean-Carlos; Frank, Norbert; Colin, Christophe; Wienberg, Claudia; Eisele, Markus

    2011-10-01

    The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition (expressed in epsilon units, $\\varepsilon$Nd) of reef framework-forming cold-water corals provides unique measures of water mass provenance and mixing within the Northeast Atlantic today and in the past. A reconstruction of near thermocline water $\\varepsilon$Nd from cold-water corals of the Gulf of Cádiz and Porcupine Seabight spanning over the past 300,000 years, now revealed that climate cooling during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 7.2 and MIS 8/9 led to a retraction of the mid-depth Subpolar Gyre (mSPG) to the west. Conversely, Northern Hemisphere warming and increasing fresh water fluxes to the northwest (Labrador Sea) favor a stronger eastward extension of the mSPG blocking the northward flow of temperate Atlantic water as observed during the early MIS 1 and the early stage MIS 5.5. These changes are likely the result of large-scale south-north displacement of the westerlies similar to present-day observations that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is linked with mid-depth ocean circulation. Based on these observations, we hypothesize that further climate warming will also strengthen the mSPG leading to a salt and temperature decrease in the Northeast Atlantic whereas salinity and temperature will increase in the temperate Atlantic. However, the amplitude of such changes on North Atlantic overturning remains to be tested.

  18. The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

  19. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  20. Changing number of Canada geese wintering in different regions of the Atlantic Flyway

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hestbeck, J.B.

    1998-01-01

    During the past 40 years, profound changes have occurred in the number of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) wintering in different regions of the Atlantic Flyway. To explain the declining number of wintering geese in the Chesapeake and Carolina regions and the increasing number in the mid-Atlantic region from 1984 to 1989, I tested several hypotheses concerning regional differences in production, survival, and movement. The observation of migratory geese neckbanded in northern Quebec and throughout the winter grounds, and the lack of a regional difference in the proportion of young in the harvest, indicated that regional differences in production on the breeding grounds was unlikely to explain the observed changes in mid-winter number. Average annual survival rates were highest for geese in the Chesapeake and lowest for geese in the mid-Atlantic indicating that differential survival between regions did not cause the large changes in mid-winter numbers between regions. Geese were more likely to move to, and remain in, the Chesapeake than any other region. Estimated movement patterns did not match observed changes in mid-winter counts. Consequently, the observed changes in number of wintering geese from 1984 to 1989 could not be explained by my analyses of differential production, survival, or movement. The survival and movement analyses, however, were based largely on data from migratory, northern breeding geese. In the aerial Midwinter Waterfowl Survey, migratory, northern-breeding geese cannot be distinguished from local, southern-breeding geese. The changes in mid-winter numbers may result from declining numbers of migratory, northern-breeding geese wintering in the Chesapeake and Carolinas and increasing numbers of local, southem-breeding geese remaining in the mid-Atlantic.

  1. Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Drange, Helge

    2016-06-01

    Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale periods without warming despite a long-term warming trend. We analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods may last 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the models, anomalous ocean heat uptake and storage are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The low-latitude East Pacific Ocean is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. During anomalously cold decades, roughly 35-50 % of the heat anomalies in the upper 700 m of the ocean are located in the Pacific Ocean, and 25 % in the Atlantic Ocean. Decadal-scale ocean heat anomalies, integrated over the upper 700 m, have a magnitude of about 7.5 × 1021 J. This is comparable to the ocean heat uptake needed to maintain a 10 year period without increasing surface temperature under global warming. On sub-decadal time scales the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans all have the ability to store large amounts of heat, contributing to variations in global surface temperature. The likelihood of decadal-scale non-warming periods decrease with global warming, firstly at the low latitude region stretching eastward from the tropical Atlantic towards the western Pacific. The North Atlantic and Southern Oceans have largest likelihood of non-warming decades in a warming world.

  2. Climate Variability In The Euro-atlantic Sector As Simulated By Echam4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menezes, I.; Corte-Real, J.; Ramos, A.; Conde, F.

    The atmosphere is a fundamental component of the climate system and its influence in local and global climates results from its composition, structure and motion. The best available tools to simulate future climates are coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 (T42 L19)[1] being a very relevant exam- ple of such a model due to its elaborated parametrizations of physical processes. The purpose of this work is twofold : (1) to assess the ability of ECHAM4 in reproducing the reference climate of 1961-1990, over the Euro-Atlantic sector (29N-71N; 67W- 59E) in terms of mean sea level pressure, surface temperature and total precipitation; (2) to evaluate the expected changes of the same climate elements in a warmer world. To attain the first goal the ECHAMSs control run output is compared with observed data obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU data set)[2-5]; to achieve the second objective, the modelSs control run is compared with its transient run forced by greenhouse gases. In both cases, comparisons are made in terms of mean values, variability in space and time and extremes. References [1] E. Roeckner, K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Dümenil, M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The atmospheric gen- eral circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp. [2] M. Hulme, D. Conway, P.D. Jones, T. Jiang, E.M. Barrow, and C. Turney (1995), Construction of a 1961-90 European climatology for climate change impacts and mod- elling applications, Int. J. Climatol., 15, 1333-1363. [3] M. Hulme (1994), The cost of climate data U a European experience, Weather, 49, 168-175. [4] M. Hulme, and M.G. New (1997), Dependence of large-scale precipitation clima- tologies on temporal and spatial sampling, J. Climate, 10, 1099-1113. 1 [5] C.J. Willmot, S.M. Robeson and M.J. Janis (1996

  3. Climate uncertainty and the regional economic impacts of global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Lopresti, C.A.

    1993-10-01

    The US Department of Energy funded pioneering research analyzing the effects of climate change and CO{sup 2} fertilization at the regional level in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region. That study used existing process models of the agricultural, water, energy, and forestry sectors and of the regional economy to conduct a wide-ranging, integrated analysis of the regional economic effects of climate change. Neither the full integration of the process models nor the full investigation of the uncertainties of climate and economic response to climate was accomplished because (1) the process models were time-consuming to run, and (2) the MINI( study used a single rich historical climate analog -- the 1930s `` Dustbowl`` period -- to depict climate change. More analysis was required to develop ranges of climate influences over more extreme climate conditions.

  4. Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

    2014-06-01

    There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies.

  5. Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

    2014-06-01

    There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. PMID:24677422

  6. Climatic bisection of the last interglacial warm period in the Polar North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauch, Henning A.; Kandiano, Evguenia S.; Helmke, Jan; Andersen, Nils; Rosell-Mele, Antoni; Erlenkeuser, Helmut

    2011-07-01

    New multiproxy marine data of the Eemian interglacial (MIS5e) from the Norwegian Sea manifest a cold event with near-glacial surface ocean summer temperatures (3-4 °C). This mid-Eemian cooling divided the otherwise relatively warm interglacial climate and was associated with widespread expansions of winter sea-ice and polar water masses due to changes in atmospheric circulation and ocean stability. While the data also verify a late rather than early last interglacial warm peak, which is in general disharmony with northern hemisphere insolation maximum and the regional climatic progression of the early Holocene, the cold event itself was likely instrumental for delaying the last interglacial climate development in the Polar North when compared with regions farther south. Such a 'climatic decoupling' of the Polar region may bear profound implications for the employment of Eemian conditions to help evaluate the present and future state of the Arctic cryosphere during a warming interglacial.

  7. Incorporating vegetation dynamics in regional climate change projections over the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alo, C. A.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2009-09-01

    Recent projections of climate change over the Mediterranean region based on general circulation models (e.g. IPCC AR4 GCMs) and regional climate models (e.g. PRUDENCE RCMs) generally show strong warming and pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially in the summer. While the role of vegetation in modulating the regional climate is widely recognized, most, if not all, of these GCM and RCM climate change projections do not account for the response of the dynamic biosphere to potential climate changes. Here, we present preliminary results from ongoing 15-year simulations over the Mediterranean region with a regional climate model (RegCM3) asynchronously coupled to a dynamic vegetation model (CLM-DGVM). Three experiments are performed in order to explore the impact of vegetation feedback on simulated changes in mean climate, climate variability and extreme climatic events (i.e., flood-inducing storms, droughts, heat waves, and extreme winds). This includes 1) a present day climate run with dynamic vegetation, 2) a future climate run with dynamic vegetation, and 3) a future climate run with static vegetation (i.e. vegetation fixed at the present day state). RegCM3 and CLM-DGVM are both run at a horizontal grid spacing of 20 km over a region covering the Mediterranean basin and parts of Central Europe and Northern Africa. Results illustrate the importance of including vegetation feedback in predictions of climate change impacts on Mediterranean climate variability, extreme climatic events and storms.

  8. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  9. Climate influence on Vibrio and associated human diseases during the past half-century in the coastal North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Grande, Chiara; Reid, Philip C; Hélaouët, Pierre; Edwards, Martin; Höfle, Manfred G; Brettar, Ingrid; Colwell, Rita R; Pruzzo, Carla

    2016-08-23

    Climate change is having a dramatic impact on marine animal and plant communities but little is known of its influence on marine prokaryotes, which represent the largest living biomass in the world oceans and play a fundamental role in maintaining life on our planet. In this study, for the first time to our knowledge, experimental evidence is provided on the link between multidecadal climatic variability in the temperate North Atlantic and the presence and spread of an important group of marine prokaryotes, the vibrios, which are responsible for several infections in both humans and animals. Using archived formalin-preserved plankton samples collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey over the past half-century (1958-2011), we assessed retrospectively the relative abundance of vibrios, including human pathogens, in nine areas of the North Atlantic and North Sea and showed correlation with climate and plankton changes. Generalized additive models revealed that long-term increase in Vibrio abundance is promoted by increasing sea surface temperatures (up to ∼1.5 °C over the past 54 y) and is positively correlated with the Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) climatic indices (P < 0.001). Such increases are associated with an unprecedented occurrence of environmentally acquired Vibrio infections in the human population of Northern Europe and the Atlantic coast of the United States in recent years. PMID:27503882

  10. Climate influence on Vibrio and associated human diseases during the past half-century in the coastal North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Grande, Chiara; Reid, Philip C; Hélaouët, Pierre; Edwards, Martin; Höfle, Manfred G; Brettar, Ingrid; Colwell, Rita R; Pruzzo, Carla

    2016-08-23

    Climate change is having a dramatic impact on marine animal and plant communities but little is known of its influence on marine prokaryotes, which represent the largest living biomass in the world oceans and play a fundamental role in maintaining life on our planet. In this study, for the first time to our knowledge, experimental evidence is provided on the link between multidecadal climatic variability in the temperate North Atlantic and the presence and spread of an important group of marine prokaryotes, the vibrios, which are responsible for several infections in both humans and animals. Using archived formalin-preserved plankton samples collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey over the past half-century (1958-2011), we assessed retrospectively the relative abundance of vibrios, including human pathogens, in nine areas of the North Atlantic and North Sea and showed correlation with climate and plankton changes. Generalized additive models revealed that long-term increase in Vibrio abundance is promoted by increasing sea surface temperatures (up to ∼1.5 °C over the past 54 y) and is positively correlated with the Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) climatic indices (P < 0.001). Such increases are associated with an unprecedented occurrence of environmentally acquired Vibrio infections in the human population of Northern Europe and the Atlantic coast of the United States in recent years.

  11. Pathways of fish invasions in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lapointe, Nicolas W. R.; Fuller, Pam; Neilson, Matthew; Murphy, Brian R.; Angermeier, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Non-native fish introductions are a major threat to biodiversity and fisheries, and occur through numerous pathways that vary regionally in importance. A key strategy for managing invasions is to focus prevention efforts on pathways posing the greatest risk of future introductions. We identified high-risk pathways for fish establishment in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States based on estimates of probability of establishment and records of previous introductions, which were considered in the context of emerging socioeconomic trends. We used estimates of propagule pressure, species’ environmental tolerance, and size of species pool to assess the risk of establishment by pathway. Pathways varied considerably in historic importance and species composition, with the majority of species introduced intentionally via stocking (primarily for sport, forage, or biocontrol) or bait release. Bait release, private stocking, illegal introductions intended to establish reproducing populations (e.g., of sport fish), aquaculture, and the sale of live organisms all create risks for future invasions in the Mid-Atlantic region. Of these pathways, bait release probably poses the greatest risk of introductions for the Mid-Atlantic region because propagule pressure is moderate, most released species are tolerant of local environmental conditions, and the pool of species available for transplantation is large. Our findings differ considerably from studies in other regions (e.g., bait release is a dominant pathway in the Mid-Atlantic region, whereas illegal introduction of sport fish is dominant in the western US and aquarium releases are dominant in Florida), demonstrating the need for regional-scale assessments of, and management strategies for, introduction pathways.

  12. Regional differences of relative sea level changes in the Northwest Atlantic: Historical trends and future projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Guoqi; Ma, Zhimin; Bao, Huizhi; Slangen, Aimée.

    2014-01-01

    Mean sea level is one of the most important indicators for climate variability and change. Here, we use tide-gauge data and satellite measurements to examine recent trends in the mean relative sea level (RSL) in the Northwest Atlantic. We then combine model output and satellite observations to provide sea level projections in the 21st century. The mean RSL trend based on historical tide-gauge data shows large regional variations, from 2 to 4 mm/yr (above the global mean RSL rise rate) in the southeast to -2 mm/yr in the northwest along East Canada. This spatial difference can to a large degree be attributed to that in the vertical land motion measured by the Global Positioning System (GPS). The combination of altimeter-measured sea level change with the GPS data can approximately account for tide-gauge measurements at most stations over 1993-2011. When the GPS data are used, the projected mean RSL rise between 1980-1999 and 2090-2099 ranges from 38 to 63 cm along the Scotia-Fundy and Newfoundland coasts and smaller along Labrador, the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence, and the St. Lawrence Estuary. In spite of considerable uncertainties the ocean steric and dynamical effect is the dominant contributor (35-70 cm) to the RSL rise along the Canadian east coast. The land-ice (glaciers and ice sheets) melt contributes to the RSL rise by 10-15 cm except at Nain where it is negligible. The effect of the vertical land uplift is large (40-50 cm) at Nain, Sept-iles and Rimouski, significantly reducing the magnitude of the RSL rise.

  13. Dynamic, Large-Magnitude CCD Changes in the Atlantic During the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kordesch, W.; Bohaty, S. M.; Palike, H.; Wilson, P. A.; Edgar, K. M.; Agnini, C.; Westerhold, T.; Roehl, U.

    2015-12-01

    The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~40.1 Ma) is a transient global warming event that abruptly reversed the long-term Eocene cooling trend. The primary driving mechanism(s) must be linked to a CO2 increase; however, geochemical modeling experiments show that prevailing hypotheses are incompatible with the paleoclimate record. To further examine changes in deep-sea carbonate burial, we identify the MECO for the first time at ODP Site 929 (Equatorial Atlantic; ~3935 m paleodepth) and present new lithological and geochemical data for this site, including benthic foraminiferal stable isotopes (δ18O and δ13C), XRF scanning data, and an orbitally tuned age model. We combine these records with data from a suite of Atlantic sites to form a depth transect between ~2-4 km (DSDP Site 523, ODP Site 1260 and 1263, IODP Site U1404) representing the first detailed record of carbonate dissolution in the Atlantic spanning the MECO. This compilation reveals dissolution at water depths as shallow as ~2 km (>1 km shallower than previous estimates) with multiple and discrete short-lived (<100 kyr) phases of carbonate compensation depth (CCD) shoaling during and after the event. Careful reevaluation of the Pacific CCD records combined with new results suggests similar short-term variability and magnitude of shoaling globally. These data provide new constraints on carbon release history during the MECO and, potentially, the forcing mechanisms for warming. The transient CCD shoaling events indicate multiple pulses of carbon input and acidification decoupled from deep-sea δ18O and δ13C records, indicating that these events must not have been driven directly by changes in temperature or carbon burial/storage - potentially reconciling some of the data-model discrepancies.

  14. Volume Transport Analysis in the South Atlantic Basin Associated with Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabral, L. S.; de Freitas Assad, L.; Landau, L.

    2013-05-01

    The South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) has a strong relation with the air-sea processes and the processes that happen on adjacent basis. Understand the transports performed by the SAO are fundamental to the climatic studies. Thus, this work aims to analyze the volume transport changes on a controlled area of the SAO associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes A1FI and B1 climate change scenarios. The results used were extracted from the oceanic fraction of three runs of the coupled Climatic Model 2.1, the Modular Ocean Model. The experiments used were the A1FI - characterized for high greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), the B1 - characterized for stabilization of its GHG concentration in 550 ppm, and the H2 - which represents the twentieth century climate. From the climate experiment the values of the year 2000 were extracted and for the A1FI and B1 the years 2050 and 2100 were extracted from each. Three sections were selected to represent the volume transport balance on the SAO. They are positioned between the 25°S and 70°S latitudes and 70°W and 20°E longitudes (Drake and AF-AA passages and 25°S). The volume transport integrated in the water column (VT) was calculated through the zonal and meridional velocities of the water for each experiment and section. Additionally, the VT anomalies were estimated through the difference between the climate change experiments and the climate experiments. These analysis made it possible to estimate the potential influence of the increase in GHG emission on the volume transports, which is directly associated with the ocean currents. For the Drake and AF-AA sections, the VT, associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (AACC), is eastward, which is in agreement with the scientific references. Also, these VT on Drake and AF-AA decrease both from 2000 to 2050 and 2000 to 2100 for the A1FI experiment. For the B1 experiment, the VT for the same two sections increase from 2000 to 2050 and decrease from 2000 to 2100

  15. Savannah River Region: Transition between the Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plains. Proceedings

    SciTech Connect

    Zullo, V.A.; Harris, W.B.; Price, V.

    1990-12-31

    The focus of the this conference of Coastal Plains geologists was on the Savannah River region of Georgia and South Carolina, and particularly on the geology of the US Department of Energy`s 300 square mile Savannah River Site (SRS) in western South Carolina. Current geological studies indicate that the Mesozoic-Cenozoic section in the Savannah River region is transitional between that of the Gulf Coastal Plain to the southwest and that of the Atlantic Coastal Plain to the northeast. With the transitional aspect of the region as its theme, the first session was devoted to overviews of Cretaceous and Paleogene geology in the Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plains. Succeeding presentations and resulting discussions dealt with more specific problems in structural, lithostratigraphic, hydrological, biostratigraphic, and cyclostratigraphic analysis, and of correlation to standard stratigraphic frameworks. For these conference proceedings, individual papers have been processed separately for the Energy Data Base.

  16. Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Mid-Atlantic Region (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.; Flores, F.; Zammit, D.; Kraemer, M.; Miles, J.

    2014-01-01

    Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Mid-Atlantic region.

  17. Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

    EPA Science Inventory

    An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

  18. Trophic interactions under climate fluctuations: the Atlantic puffin as an example.

    PubMed

    Durant, Joël M; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2003-07-22

    Co-occurrence in food requirements of offspring and food availability is a key factor determining breeding success. Prey availability is typically dependent on environmental conditions that are different from those influencing the predator's decision regarding whether or not to initiate breeding, and is not always optimal at the peak of reproduction requirements. We investigated this relationship to understand better what determines the fledging success of the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica). Colony data from Røst (northern Norway) covering a period of 27 years were analysed with parallel data on sea temperature and the size and abundance of the puffins' main prey (the Norwegian spring-spawning herring, Clupea harengus). By fitting statistical models to the fledging success, we found that one effect of climate on this population of Atlantic puffins is indirect and mediated by sea temperature affecting the availability of first-year herring. The best model also demonstrates that the breeding success of the Røst puffins may be quantitatively predicted from the size of first-year herring and sea temperature. PMID:12965010

  19. Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?

    PubMed

    Holland, Greg J; Webster, Peter J

    2007-11-15

    We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7 degrees C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945-1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.

  20. A space-time statistical climate model for hurricane intensification in the North Atlantic basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraza, Erik; Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2016-08-01

    Climate influences on hurricane intensification are investigated by averaging hourly intensification rates over the period 1975-2014 in 8° × 8° latitude-longitude grid cells. The statistical effects of hurricane intensity and sea-surface temperature (SST), along with the climatic effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are quantified using a Bayesian hierarchical model fit to the averaged data. As expected, stronger hurricanes tend to have higher intensification rates, especially over the warmest waters. Of the three climate variables considered, the NAO has the largest effect on intensification rates after controlling for intensity and SST. The model shows an average increase in intensification rates of 0.18 [0.06, 0.31] m s-1 h-1 (95 % credible interval) for every 1 standard deviation decrease in the NAO index. Weak trade winds associated with the negative phase of the NAO might result in less vertical wind shear and thus higher mean intensification rates.

  1. Ocean climate prior to breeding affects the duration of the nestling period in the Atlantic puffin

    PubMed Central

    Durant, Joël M; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2006-01-01

    Time-series covering 23 years for a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica L.) at Røst, northern Norway, was used to explore any indirect effects of climatic variations on chick production. By fitting statistical models on the duration of the nestling period, we found that it may be estimated using the average sea temperature and salinity at 0–20 m depth in March (having a positive and a negative effect, respectively). We propose that when the phytoplankton bloom occurs in early spring, adverse oceanographic conditions, i.e. low temperature and high salinity in March, have a negative effect on puffin reproduction by degradation of the prey availability (mainly Clupea harengus) for chick-feeding adults three months later. PMID:17148306

  2. Ocean climate prior to breeding affects the duration of the nestling period in the Atlantic puffin.

    PubMed

    Durant, Joël M; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2006-12-22

    Time-series covering 23 years for a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica L.) at Røst, northern Norway, was used to explore any indirect effects of climatic variations on chick production. By fitting statistical models on the duration of the nestling period, we found that it may be estimated using the average sea temperature and salinity at 0-20 m depth in March (having a positive and a negative effect, respectively). We propose that when the phytoplankton bloom occurs in early spring, adverse oceanographic conditions, i.e. low temperature and high salinity in March, have a negative effect on puffin reproduction by degradation of the prey availability (mainly Clupea harengus) for chick-feeding adults three months later. PMID:17148306

  3. Efficient Multifamily Homes in a Hot Humid Climate by Atlantic Housing Partners

    SciTech Connect

    Chaser, Dave; Martin, Eric

    2013-04-01

    With assistance from the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) and its Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Atlantic Housing Partners (AHP) has implemented a high performance, systems engineered package of measures. This report demonstrates how the initiative achieves Building America (BA) goals of 30%-50% energy savings. Specifically, the goals are documented as being achieved in the new construction multifamily housing sector in the hot humid climate. Results from energy modeling of the high performance package are presented. The role of utility allowance calculations, used as part of the low-income housing tax credit process, to value those energy savings is discussed, as is customer satisfaction with heat pump water heaters.

  4. Efficient Multifamily Homes in a Hot-Humid Climate by Atlantic Housing Partners

    SciTech Connect

    Chasar, D.; Martin, E.

    2013-04-01

    With assistance from the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) and its Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Atlantic Housing Partners (AHP) has implemented a high performance, systems engineered package of measures. This report demonstrates how the initiative achieves Building America (BA) goals of 30%-50% energy savings. Specifically, the goals are documented as being achieved in the new construction multifamily housing sector in the hot humid climate. Results from energy modeling of the high performance package are presented. The role of utility allowance calculations, used as part of the low-income housing tax credit process, to value those energy savings is discussed, as is customer satisfaction with heat pump water heaters.

  5. Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.

    PubMed

    Chung, Uran; Mack, Liz; Yun, Jin I; Kim, Soo-Hyung

    2011-01-01

    Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis 'Yoshino' and Prunus serrulata 'Kwanzan') in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r(2) = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r(2) = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = -2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines. PMID:22087317

  6. Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Chung, Uran; Mack, Liz; Yun, Jin I.; Kim, Soo-Hyung

    2011-01-01

    Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis ‘Yoshino’ and Prunus serrulata ‘Kwanzan’) in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r2 = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r2 = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = −2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s ) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines. PMID:22087317

  7. Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.

    PubMed

    Chung, Uran; Mack, Liz; Yun, Jin I; Kim, Soo-Hyung

    2011-01-01

    Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis 'Yoshino' and Prunus serrulata 'Kwanzan') in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r(2) = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r(2) = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = -2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines.

  8. Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook.

    PubMed

    Frederiksen, Morten; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Beaugrand, Grégory; Wanless, Sarah

    2013-02-01

    The boreal Northeast Atlantic is strongly affected by current climate change, and large shifts in abundance and distribution of many organisms have been observed, including the dominant copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which supports the grazing food web and thus many fish populations. At the same time, large-scale declines have been observed in many piscivorous seabirds, which depend on abundant small pelagic fish. Here, we combine predictions from a niche model of C. finmarchicus with long-term data on seabird breeding success to link trophic levels. The niche model shows that environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus has declined in southern areas with large breeding seabird populations (e.g. the North Sea), and predicts that this decline is likely to spread northwards during the 21st century to affect populations in Iceland and the Faroes. In a North Sea colony, breeding success of three common piscivorous seabird species [black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica)] was strongly positively correlated with local environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus, whereas this was not the case at a more northerly colony in west Norway. Large seabird populations seem only to occur where C. finmarchicus is abundant, and northward distributional shifts of common boreal seabirds are therefore expected over the coming decades. Whether or not population size can be maintained depends on the dispersal ability and inclination of these colonial breeders, and on the carrying capacity of more northerly areas in a warmer climate. PMID:23504776

  9. Climate variation in sub-Saharan region of west Africa: A study of rainfall variability in northern Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nnaji, Austine Osondu

    1999-12-01

    The identification of primary climate controls and their utilization in developing statistical models for precipitation forecast in northern Nigeria is the main goal of this research. The input consists of time series of seven ocean-atmospheric variables with 34 years of data, namely, north and south Atlantic sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, the north Atlantic oscillation, the southern oscillation index, Nigerian temperature and historic rainfall. Nineteen synoptic stations in the study area are selected and grouped into three sub-regions using cluster analysis. Fluctuation in rainfall within each sub-region is determined and the resultant trend modeled by least square multiple regression. Using Pearson's product moment correlation, the identified climate forcing agents are analyzed for association with rainfall in each of the three sub- regions. The correlation coefficients at different rainfall lags are tested for significance. Results indicate that different combinations of climate agents force rainfall in each sub-region, with some agents, such as sea level pressure and sea surface temperature, common to all sub-regions. In particular, the research identified south Atlantic sea surface temperature domains common to all sub-regions for the period 1961 to 1990 as 21s/15w, 21s/1w and 21s/3w. By employing identified climate agents in rainfall forecast for the sub-regions, seasonal and monthly models are derived, comparison of which, in time and space, indicate that the standardized seasonal model yields the least residual or error component. The standardized seasonal model successfully improved forecast in two out of three regions, and in a test forecast, the version that utilized both NDJ values of the explanatory variables and last year's rainfall.

  10. Transient Adjustment of the global climate to an abrupt Northern North Atlantic cooling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, G.; Chang, P.; Panetta, R.; Saravanan, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) is thought to play a key role in abrupt changes in Earth climate. In cold periods such as the Younger Dryas, the THC was much weaker than today. In an experiment with a fully coupled CCSM3 model an artificial freshwater flux is added to the Northern North Atlantic Ocean surface, which weakens the THC. The North Atlantic Ocean surface cools almost instantly after the freshwater flux onset. This cooling is subsequently spread throughout the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in the ITCZ moving southward. In the weakening THC, heat carried by the THC from Southern Hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere is reduced, resulting in a cooler Northern Hemisphere. It is still questioned what role the atmosphere plays in this process. There are two possible ways the atmosphere may change the ocean surface temperature. One is that the wind changes the ocean surface wind-driven circulation, leading to a change to the ocean heat budget. Another is that the atmosphere changes the ocean-atmosphere heat flux directly. Here we look into the second possibility by comparing the effects of freshwater flux in a fully coupled model to the effects of the same flux in a model constructed by coupling an atmospheric general circulation model (CAM3) to a thermodynamic slab ocean model. With use of appropriate Q-fluxes, the coupled model with the slab ocean has the same climatology as the fully coupled CCSM3 model. Perturbation Q-fluxes are constructed for the fresh water flux experiments using a restoring technique. We find that the atmosphere interacting with a thermodynamic slab ocean can spread the cooling from the Northern North Atlantic and cause the ITCZ to move southward, and that there is a cooling front propagating southward with a speed depending on the mixed layer depth: a deeper mixed layer depth results in a slower propagation. By applying the Q-flux perturbation only in the Northern North Atlantic Ocean, the effect of the ocean circulation change on

  11. Quantitative relationships between watershed-scale stressors and estuarine condition for mid-Atlantic region

    SciTech Connect

    Paul, J.F.; Hale, S.S.; Comeleo, R.L.; Copeland, J.; August, P.V.

    1995-12-31

    A pilot project has been conducted that developed quantitative relationships between watershed-scale (landscape) stressors and sediment contamination for sub-estuaries within Chesapeake Bay. The landscape stressors, land use patterns (derived from classified, contemporary satellite imagery) and point source pollution, were spatially analyzed for each individual watershed of 25 sub-estuaries using a geographic information system. Sediment contamination data for the sub-estuaries, available from the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), were statistically reduced to one principal component for the metals and organics. Non-parametric statistical techniques were used to develop empirical relationships between sediment contamination and developed land (positive), herbaceous land (negative) and point source loadings (positive). These analyses have been extended to (1) include approximately 80 subestuaries across the mid-Atlantic region for which EMAP data were available, and (2) relate landscape stressors with estuarine condition. The measure of estuarine condition was an index of benthic quality developed by EMAP. The only available land use data set for the entire mid-Atlantic region was from US Geological Survey Land Use Data Analysis database, which is of 1970s vintage. Because of the dramatic differences in spatial area of the sub-estuaries in the mid-Atlantic region, adjustments for differing hydrologic regimes had to be factored into the analysis. Results indicate that it is possible to develop relationships between watershed-scale stressors and estuarine condition across large geographic regions.

  12. Bias reduction in decadal predictions of West African monsoon rainfall using regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paxian, A.; Sein, D.; Panitz, H.-J.; Warscher, M.; Breil, M.; Engel, T.; Tödter, J.; Krause, A.; Cabos Narvaez, W. D.; Fink, A. H.; Ahrens, B.; Kunstmann, H.; Jacob, D.; Paeth, H.

    2016-02-01

    The West African monsoon rainfall is essential for regional food production, and decadal predictions are necessary for policy makers and farmers. However, predictions with global climate models reveal precipitation biases. This study addresses the hypotheses that global prediction biases can be reduced by dynamical downscaling with a multimodel ensemble of three regional climate models (RCMs), a RCM coupled to a global ocean model and a RCM applying more realistic soil initialization and boundary conditions, i.e., aerosols, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), vegetation, and land cover. Numerous RCM predictions have been performed with REMO, COSMO-CLM (CCLM), and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in various versions and for different decades. Global predictions reveal typical positive and negative biases over the Guinea Coast and the Sahel, respectively, related to a southward shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a positive tropical Atlantic SST bias. These rainfall biases are reduced by some regional predictions in the Sahel but aggravated by all RCMs over the Guinea Coast, resulting from the inherited SST bias, increased westerlies and evaporation over the tropical Atlantic and shifted African easterly waves. The coupled regional predictions simulate high-resolution atmosphere-ocean interactions strongly improving the SST bias, the ITCZ shift and the Guinea Coast and Central Sahel precipitation biases. Some added values in rainfall bias are found for more realistic SST and land cover boundary conditions over the Guinea Coast and improved vegetation in the Central Sahel. Thus, the ability of RCMs and improved boundary conditions to reduce rainfall biases for climate impact research depends on the considered West African region.

  13. [Climatic suitability of single cropping rice planting region in China].

    PubMed

    Duan, Ju-Qi; Zhou, Guang-Sheng

    2012-02-01

    To clarify the leading climate factors affecting the distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China at national and annual temporal scales and to reveal the potential distribution and climatic suitability divisions of this planting region in China could not only provide scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of single cropping rice production, modifying planting pattern, and introducing fine varieties, but also ensure the food security of China. In this paper, the potential climate factors affecting the single cropping rice distribution in China at regional and annual scales were selected from related literatures, and the single cropping rice geographic information from the national agro-meteorological observation stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), together with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and spatial analyst function of Arc-GIS software, were adopted to clarify the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China, and to construct a model about the relationships between the potential distribution of the planting region and the climate. The results showed that annual precipitation, moisture index, and days of not less than 18 degrees C stably were the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China, with their cumulative contribution rate reached 94.5% of all candidate climate factors. The model constructed in this paper could well simulate the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China. According to the appearance frequency, the low, medium and high climatic suitability divisions of single cropping rice planting region in China were clarified, and the climate characteristics of the planting region in each climatic suitability division were analyzed. PMID:22586968

  14. Synchrony of the Central Atlantic magmatic province and the Triassic-Jurassic boundary climatic and biotic crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzoli, Andrea; Bertrand, Hervé; Knight, Kim B.; Cirilli, Simonetta; Buratti, Nicoletta; Vérati, Chrystèle; Nomade, Sébastien; Renne, Paul R.; Youbi, Nasrrddine; Martini, Rossana; Allenbach, Karin; Neuwerth, Ralph; Rapaille, Cédric; Zaninetti, Louisette; Bellieni, Giuliano

    2004-11-01

    The evolution of life on Earth is marked by catastrophic extinction events, one of which occurred ca. 200 Ma at the transition from the Triassic Period to the Jurassic Period (Tr-J boundary), apparently contemporaneous with the eruption of the world's largest known continental igneous province, the Central Atlantic magmatic province. The temporal relationship of the Tr-J boundary and the province's volcanism is clarified by new multidisciplinary (stratigraphic, palynologic, geochronologic, paleomagnetic, geochemical) data that demonstrate that development of the Central Atlantic magmatic province straddled the Tr-J boundary and thus may have had a causal relationship with the climatic crisis and biotic turnover demarcating the boundary.

  15. Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

    PubMed Central

    Holt, Rebecca E.; Jørgensen, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life

  16. What caused the 2009 cold event in the Atlantic cold tongue region?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burmeister, Kristin; Brandt, Peter; Lübbecke, Joke F.

    2016-04-01

    The tropical Atlantic (TA) exhibits sea surface temperature (SST) variability on seasonal to inter-annual time scales. This variability is associated with changes of atmospheric dynamics, linking it to severe flooding or droughts in South America and West Africa. This study investigates processes in the TA that might have caused the extreme cold event in the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) region in 2009. During boreal spring, a strong negative Atlantic meridional mode event developed in the TA associated with northwesterly wind anomalies along the equator. Contrary to what would be expected from ENSO-like dynamics, these wind anomalies did not lead to a warming in the eastern equatorial Atlantic in boreal summer. Instead, from May to August 2009, an abrupt cooling took place in the ACT region resulting in the coldest August ACT SST on record. In the literature, two processes - equatorial wave reflection and meridional advection of subsurface temperatures - are discussed as potential causes of such an event. Whereas previous studies are mainly based on satellite data, reanalysis products and model output, we here use in situ measurements (data from Argo floats, PIRATA buoys, and TACE moorings, as well as CTD data of various ship cruises) in addition to satellite and reanalysis products to investigate the contribution of both processes to the strong surface cooling in the ACT region in 2009. Results based on the Argo float data confirm previous findings that equatorial wave reflection contributed to the cold event in the ACT region in 2009. They further indicate that higher baroclinic mode waves played an important role. The analysis of in situ and reanalysis temperature and velocity data does not suggest a significant contribution of meridional advection of subsurface temperatures for the onset of the 2009 cold event. The results indicate an asymmetry in the importance of meridional advection for non-ENSO-like cold and warm events with warm events more strongly affected

  17. Long distance dispersal and connectivity in amphi-Atlantic corals at regional and basin scales.

    PubMed

    Nunes, Flavia L D; Norris, Richard D; Knowlton, Nancy

    2011-01-01

    Among Atlantic scleractinian corals, species diversity is highest in the Caribbean, but low diversity and high endemism are observed in various peripheral populations in central and eastern Atlantic islands and along the coasts of Brazil and West Africa. The degree of connectivity between these distantly separated populations is of interest because it provides insight into processes at both evolutionary and ecological time scales, such as speciation, recruitment dynamics and the persistence of coral populations. To assess connectivity in broadly distributed coral species of the Atlantic, DNA sequence data from two nuclear markers were obtained for six coral species spanning their distributional ranges. At basin-wide scales, significant differentiation was generally observed among populations in the Caribbean, Brazil and West Africa. Concordance of patterns in connectivity among co-distributed taxa indicates that extrinsic barriers, such as the Amazon freshwater plume or long stretches of open ocean, restrict dispersal of coral larvae from region to region. Within regions, dispersal ability appears to be influenced by aspects of reproduction and life history. Two broadcasting species, Siderastrea siderea and Montastraea cavernosa, were able to maintain gene flow among populations separated by as much as 1,200 km along the coast of Brazil. In contrast, brooding species, such as Favia gravida and Siderastrea radians, had more restricted gene flow along the Brazilian coast.

  18. Long Distance Dispersal and Connectivity in Amphi-Atlantic Corals at Regional and Basin Scales

    PubMed Central

    Nunes, Flavia L. D.; Norris, Richard D.; Knowlton, Nancy

    2011-01-01

    Among Atlantic scleractinian corals, species diversity is highest in the Caribbean, but low diversity and high endemism are observed in various peripheral populations in central and eastern Atlantic islands and along the coasts of Brazil and West Africa. The degree of connectivity between these distantly separated populations is of interest because it provides insight into processes at both evolutionary and ecological time scales, such as speciation, recruitment dynamics and the persistence of coral populations. To assess connectivity in broadly distributed coral species of the Atlantic, DNA sequence data from two nuclear markers were obtained for six coral species spanning their distributional ranges. At basin-wide scales, significant differentiation was generally observed among populations in the Caribbean, Brazil and West Africa. Concordance of patterns in connectivity among co-distributed taxa indicates that extrinsic barriers, such as the Amazon freshwater plume or long stretches of open ocean, restrict dispersal of coral larvae from region to region. Within regions, dispersal ability appears to be influenced by aspects of reproduction and life history. Two broadcasting species, Siderastrea siderea and Montastraea cavernosa, were able to maintain gene flow among populations separated by as much as 1,200 km along the coast of Brazil. In contrast, brooding species, such as Favia gravida and Siderastrea radians, had more restricted gene flow along the Brazilian coast. PMID:21799816

  19. The stratigraphic record of recent climate change in mid-Atlantic USA

    SciTech Connect

    Brush, G.S.; Hilgartner, W.B.; Khan, H. )

    1994-06-01

    The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age recorded in sediments deposited in tributaries and marshes surrounding the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays in the mid-Atlantic region of USA, by changes in pollen and seeds of terrestrial and aquatic plants, and changes in influxes of charcoal, sediment, metals and nutrients. Fossil pollen and seeds portray a regional landscape characterized by conditions drier that present from about 1000 to 1200 AD. During the same period, high charcoal and sediment influxes indicate high fire frequency. This short dry interval was followed by an expansion of submerged aquatic plants, low marsh plants, and terrestrial plants that occupy wet habitats. Charcoal influxes are extremely low during the latter interval, which extended from about 1200 AD to 1500 AD. Plant macrofossil and pollen distributions indicate a second dry period extending from 1550 to 1650 AD, which appears similar to the earlier Medieval Warm interval.

  20. DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF A MACROINVERTEBRATE BIOTIC INTEGRITY INDEX (MBII) FOR REGIONALLY ASSESSING MID-ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS STREAMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The multimetric Macroinvertebrate Biotic Integrity Index (MBII) was developed from data collected at 574 wadeable stream reaches in the Mid-Atlantic Highlands region (MAHR) by the USEPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). Over 100 candidate metrics were eval...

  1. THE RESPONSE OF MARINE ECOSYSTEMS TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    A strong association is documented between variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and changes in various trophic levels of the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic. Examples are presented for phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, fish, marine diseases, whales and s...

  2. Millennial climatic changes in US and European loess deposits: Links between continental, North Atlantic and Greenland records.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousseau, D.; Antoine, P.; Hatte, C.; Sima, A.

    2007-12-01

    Loess sequences are key deposits at mid-latitudes in N Hemisphere, where no other complete records of past climatic changes are available. US and European sequences are thus ideally located to contribute testing the impact of abrupt climatic changes, described from North Atlantic and Greenland, as modeled by Ganopolski and Rahmstorf (2001). We present a synthesis of our high-resolution investigations in both continents by focusing on MIS 3 and 2. We show that the dust sedimentation, which lead to the loess formation, did not happen regularly, but better followed the dust deposition in Greenland corresponding to strong variations in the atmospheric circulation. Indeed all studied sequences show the alternation of pure or laminated loess with paleosols corresponding to artic brown soils, tundra gleys or embryonic gleys. Thus using i) grain size studies, ii) OSL and AMS dates, iii) d13C and mollusk analyses, and iv) the stratigraphical schemes and ongoing modeling experiments, we show that N Hemisphere loess sequences recorded millennial climatic variations even though with differences from one side to the other of the North Atlantic: while the general climatic history is recorded, the magnitude of the eolian events indicates differences. For example the strong N Atlantic coolings events (HE), expressed in the grain size studies by coarser material in Europe, cannot be identified in the US Great Plains. On the contrary, DO events are recorded by paleosols corresponding to finer sedimentation or stops/reductions in the dust deposition as also observed in the Greenland ice-cores. We conclude that climate variability in Western Europe appears strongly correlated with that in the North Atlantic area, at timescales at least as fine as centuries, while partly in North America.

  3. Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

  4. Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John; Mahajan, Salil; Lamarque, J-F

    2012-01-01

    A new high-resolution (0.9$^{\\circ}$x1.25$^{\\circ}$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$^{\\circ}$x1.4$^{\\circ}$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.

  5. Climate Forcing of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the last 6000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Woodruff, J. D.; Scileppi, E.; Lane, P.

    2006-12-01

    Reconstructions of extreme overwash events in backbarrier lagoons and wetlands from the Caribbean to the northeastern United States show similar patterns of event occurrence. Comparisons with instrumental and historical records indicate that most of these overwash layers were likely deposited by landfalling tropical cyclones. Over the last 6000 years intense tropical cyclones have deposited coarse grained laminae in a coastal lagoon on Vieques, Puerto Rico. Intervals with more frequent intense tropical cyclone strikes occurred at 5600-4200 years ago, 2500-1000 years ago, and 250 years ago to present. Similarly records from backbarrier wetlands in the New York/New Jersey Bight provide evidence of more frequent overwash in the last 300 years and 2200 to 900 years ago. An earlier active interval in New York is also evident and dates to sometime before 2700 years ago. Other shorter records from the northeastern United States also provide evidence of more frequent storm-induced deposition over the last few hundred years following a relative lull in overwash and presumably tropical cyclone landfalls. This increase in tropical cyclone landfalls occurs during the later half of the Little Ice Age (LIA) when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics were 2-3°C cooler than modern. Over the last several millennia a coherent pattern of climate change appears to have modulated intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic. The evolution of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability over the late Holocene likely played an important role in controlling the frequency of intense tropical cyclones in the entire North Atlantic Basin, with intervals of fewer strong El Niño events being more favorable to intense tropical cyclone activity. In addition, variations in the West African monsoon, possibly tied to ENSO, may be an important control on the frequency of North Atlantic intense tropical cyclones. With increases in intense convective storms over tropical

  6. Identifying predictors for regional climate in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maleski, J.; Martinez, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    Statistical climate models of a regional scale are useful for understanding local processes affecting climate and to improving seasonal forecasting. We explore local historical weather station precipitation and temperature measurements from the United States Historical Climatology Network (1895-2012) for 21 stations in the study area. Teleconnections considered as predictors include: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), Pacific North American pattern (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Bermuda High Index (BHI). Wilcoxon rank sum testing revealed a strong effect of ENSO on precipitation in the southern part of the study area and a weaker or opposite effect in middle to northern parts of the study area. Warm AMO and warm PDO phases greatly reduced the effect of El Nino rainfall in the study area. Rainfall, temperature and climate indices were examined using nonlinear time series analysis including singular spectrum analysis, convergent cross mapping and granger causality. Aside form seasonality we did not identify strong nonlinear effects. Seasonality was found to be an important factor for selecting lagged predictors in a multivariate time series regression model. Time series clustering was used to reduce the study area to four regions.

  7. The evolution of heat anomalies in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM and the implications for North Atlantic decadal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Old, C.; Haines, K.

    2003-04-01

    Observational records show that over pentadal and decadal timescales, heat anomalies form and decay in the North Atlantic Ocean. Due to the oceans capacity to store heat, long-term heat anomalies may feedback into the atmosphere through surface-flux processes producing a change in the climatic pattern. Similarly, changes in climate may change the oceans heat content, which can potentially alter the large-scale thermohaline circulation patterns. Hence an understanding of the evolution of oceanic heat anomalies will help determine the role of ocean-atmosphere thermal coupling in decadal scale climate variability. Gösta Walin (Tellus, 1982) developed a novel method for studying the thermal processes within a closed ocean basin through the sorting of water volumes into temperature classes. This allows the transformation rates of water between temperature classes due to advection in and out of the region, surface forcing and internal processes (mixing and diffusion) to be quantified independently. We apply this method to 100 years of monthly averaged data taken from the 1000-year control run of the Hadley Centres coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, HADCM3. The closed basin formed by the North Atlantic / Arctic Oceans extending from the Equator to the North Pole, with the Artic Ocean being bound by the Bering Strait, forms the transformation basin studied. The results presented are interpreted in terms of the filtered anomalous transformations about the 100-year mean transformations. It will be shown that the model produces significant anomalous transformations over decadal time-scales, and that one of the key factors in the anomalous transformations is the variation in the position of the isotherm outcroppings at the sea-surface, in contrast with the variations in the air-sea fluxes. These findings will be discussed in terms of the causes of decadal climate variability.

  8. Building a Regional Collaborative for Climate Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherba, O.; Carlton, C.

    2015-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area has a strong community of environmental educators with an articulated interest in expanding, elevating, and strengthening climate change programming. Based in this community, a group of educators identified a strong need for and interest in collaborating to increase capacity and knowledge, support pilot testing, and implement climate change best practices in educational and interpretive programs. Since its inception, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative has brought together over 25 organizations, ranging from wildlife refuges to nonprofit education centers and city park agencies. While still in its nascent phase, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative exemplifies the power of collective impact. With the backbone support of the Institute at the Golden Gate, the Collaborative has developed a common agenda and is making strides towards developing common measures of success. The initial development stages of this group present an interesting case study and highlight some of the challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned for others seeking to build their own collective impact initiative.

  9. Regional Climate Variations and Change for Terrestrial Ecosystems Workshop Review

    EPA Science Inventory

    North Carolina State University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership with the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center (SECSC), hosted the Regional Climate Variations and Change for ...

  10. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework ...

  11. Late Eocene to middle Miocene (33 to 13 million years ago) vegetation and climate development on the North American Atlantic Coastal Plain (IODP Expedition 313, Site M0027)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotthoff, U.; Greenwood, D. R.; McCarthy, F. M. G.; Müller-Navarra, K.; Prader, S.; Hesselbo, S. P.

    2014-08-01

    C higher than today, but ∼1.5 °C lower than preceding and following phases of the Miocene. We conclude that vegetation and regional climate in the hinterland of the New Jersey shelf did not react as sensitively to Oligocene and Miocene climate changes as other regions in North America or Europe due to the moderating effects of the North Atlantic. An additional explanation for the relatively low regional temperatures reconstructed for the mid-Miocene climatic optimum could be an uplift of the Appalachian Mountains during the Miocene, which would also have influenced the catchment area of our pollen record.

  12. Regional Climate Service in Northern Germany -The North German Climate Office

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinke, I.; Von Storch, H.

    2012-12-01

    The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.

  13. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  14. Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

    2007-01-01

    Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold

  15. Evolution of magmatic and hydrothermal activity in the western Arctic and North Atlantic regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorokhtin, N. O.; Lobkovsky, L. I.; Novikov, G. V.; Kozlov, E. E.; Bogdanova, O. Yu.; Nikiforov, S. L.

    2016-07-01

    This paper discusses the geodynamic evolution of the lithosphere in the Arctic region during the Phaneorozic and its polyphase lithotectonic reorganization. Spatiotemporal patterns of the mosaic junction of lithospheric plates of different age are presented for the Caledonian-Hercynian stage and for the Cenozoic evolution of the North Atlantic and Arctic oceanic basins. Special attention is given to the intersections of fault systems with different kinematics, which control the manifestation of peculiar magmatism and the formation of numerous mineral deposits. It is shown that the hydrothermal activity of the region is related to the ocean opening in the Eocene and is confined to the mid-ocean ridge.

  16. An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change.

    PubMed

    Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A; Collins, Mat; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran

    2008-05-27

    Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying the SST gradient that is most closely associated with June-August precipitation over the south Amazon. We use an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations forced by observed SST from 1949 to 2005. A large number of tropical Atlantic SST gradient indices are generated randomly and temporal correlations are examined between these indices and June-August precipitation averaged over the Amazon Basin south of the equator. The indices correlating most strongly with June-August southern Amazon precipitation form a cluster of near-meridional orientation centred near the equator. The location of the southern component of the gradient is particularly well defined in a region off the Brazilian tropical coast, consistent with known physical mechanisms. The chosen index appears to capture much of the Atlantic SST influence on simulated southern Amazon dry-season precipitation, and is significantly correlated with observed southern Amazon precipitation. We examine the index in 36 different coupled atmosphere-ocean model projections of climate change under a simple compound 1% increase in CO2. Within the large spread of responses, we find a relationship between the projected trend in the index and the Amazon dry-season precipitation trends. Furthermore, the magnitude of the trend relationship is consistent with the inter-annual variability relationship found in the AGCM simulations. This suggests that the index would be of use in quantifying uncertainties in climate change in the region. PMID:18267909

  17. Size Scaling in Western North Atlantic Loggerhead Turtles Permits Extrapolation between Regions, but Not Life Stages

    PubMed Central

    Marn, Nina; Klanjscek, Tin; Stokes, Lesley; Jusup, Marko

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Sea turtles face threats globally and are protected by national and international laws. Allometry and scaling models greatly aid sea turtle conservation and research, and help to better understand the biology of sea turtles. Scaling, however, may differ between regions and/or life stages. We analyze differences between (i) two different regional subsets and (ii) three different life stage subsets of the western North Atlantic loggerhead turtles by comparing the relative growth of body width and depth in relation to body length, and discuss the implications. Results and Discussion Results suggest that the differences between scaling relationships of different regional subsets are negligible, and models fitted on data from one region of the western North Atlantic can safely be used on data for the same life stage from another North Atlantic region. On the other hand, using models fitted on data for one life stage to describe other life stages is not recommended if accuracy is of paramount importance. In particular, young loggerhead turtles that have not recruited to neritic habitats should be studied and modeled separately whenever practical, while neritic juveniles and adults can be modeled together as one group. Even though morphometric scaling varies among life stages, a common model for all life stages can be used as a general description of scaling, and assuming isometric growth as a simplification is justified. In addition to linear models traditionally used for scaling on log-log axes, we test the performance of a saturating (curvilinear) model. The saturating model is statistically preferred in some cases, but the accuracy gained by the saturating model is marginal. PMID:26629702

  18. Regional Climate Predictability in the Extratropics

    SciTech Connect

    Robertson,A.W.:Ghil,M.

    2001-08-09

    The goal of this project was to develop a dynamical framework for extratropical climate predictability on decade-to-century timescales and subcontinental spatial scales,besed on the intraseasonal dynamics of the midlatitude atmosphere and their interaction with the ocean's longer timescales.A two-pronged approach was taken,based on (a)idealized,quasi-geostrophic,coupled models of the midlatitude ocean-atmosphere system,and(b)analysis of GCM results.

  19. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2014-09-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of India

  20. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  1. High resolution modeling of the regional climate variability over the Southeast of Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Da Silva, L. A.; Gomes, J.; Lyra, A.; Chan, C. S.; Marengo, J.; Vieira, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    Global changes of climate can potentially affect densely populated regions in the southeast of Brazil. These changes can arise from the variability of drivers such as solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic activities, as well as complex responses related to cloud cover and ocean temperatures. However, the precise function of each driver is still a topic of debate. At regional scale, climate models have been employed to assess the evolution of the climatic parameters and to project future changes. However, high-resolution (5 km) estimates are needed to identify specific areas that are vulnerable to events that could result in heavy rains, flooding, and mudslides. Here we investigate the sensibility of the regional precipitation patterns estimated employing the regional model Eta to the several schemes of cloud microphysics and the Betts-Miller-Janjic convection parameterization. This version of the model Eta is based on schemes of refined slope for the vertical coordinate and non-hydrostatic dynamics. Following other authors, the region model is embedded in the ERA-interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-ECMWF) reanalysis. The model free parameters are determined by minimizing the difference between models output and observations of the precipitation variability associated to the passage of could fronts and the south Atlantic Convergence Zone from 2000 to 2010. Additionally, the limitations of the model to assess regional effects of climate change and future strategies to increase its precision are discussed. This work is supported by FAPESP under the grant agreement nos. 2008/58161-1 (PFPMCG - Projeto Temático) and 2011/13976-0.

  2. Regional Scale Analyses of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, D. W.; Hayhoe, K.

    2006-12-01

    New statistically downscaled climate modeling techniques provide an opportunity for improved regional analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. Climate modeling outputs can often simultaneously meet the needs of those studying impacts on natural as well as managed ecosystems. Climate outputs can be used to drive existing forest or crop models, or livestock models (e.g., temperature-humidity index model predicting dairy milk production) for improved information on regional impact. High spatial resolution climate forecasts, combined with knowledge of seasonal temperatures or rainfall constraining species ranges, can be used to predict shifts in suitable habitat for invasive weeds, insects, and pathogens, as well as cash crops. Examples of climate thresholds affecting species range and species composition include: minimum winter temperature, duration of winter chilling (vernalization) hours (e.g., hours below 7.2 C), frost-free period, and frequency of high temperature stress days in summer. High resolution climate outputs can also be used to drive existing integrated pest management models predicting crop insect and disease pressure. Collectively, these analyses can be used to test hypotheses or provide insight into the impact of future climate change scenarios on species range shifts and threat from invasives, shifts in crop production zones, and timing and regional variation in economic impacts.

  3. Wave climate model of the Mid-Atlantic shelf and shoreline (Virginian Sea): Model development, shelf geomorphology, and preliminary results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldsmith, V.; Morris, W. D.; Byrne, R. J.; Whitlock, C. H.

    1974-01-01

    A computerized wave climate model is developed that applies linear wave theory and shelf depth information to predict wave behavior as they pass over the continental shelf as well as the resulting wave energy distributions along the coastline. Reviewed are also the geomorphology of the Mid-Atlantic Continental Shelf, wave computations resulting from 122 wave input conditions, and a preliminary analysis of these data.

  4. A Preliminary Synthesis of Modeled Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional Ozone Concentrations

    SciTech Connect

    Weaver, C. P.; Liang, X. Z.; Zhu, J.; Adams, P. J.; Amar, Praveen; Avise, J.; Caughey, M.; Chen, J.; Cohen, R. C.; Cooter, E.; Dawson, J. P.; Gilliam, R.; Gilliland, A.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Grambsch, A.; Grano, D.; Guenther, Alex; Gustafson, William I.; Harley, R. A.; He, Shan; Hemming, B.; Hogrefe, C.; Huang, H. -C.; Hunt, Sherri W.; Jacob, D.; Kinney, Patrick L.; Kunkel, K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lamb, Brian K.; Larkin, N.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Lin, J.; Lynn, B. H.; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Mass, Clifford S.; KcKenzie, D.; Mickley, L. J.; O'Neil, S.; Nolte, C.; Pandis, S. N.; Racherla, P. N.; Rosenzweig, C.; Russell, Armistead G.; Salathe, E.; Steiner, A. L.; Tagaris, Efthimios; Tao, Z.; Tonse, S.; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Williams, A.; Winner, D. A.; Woo, J.-H; Wu, S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    2009-12-01

    This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential impacts of global climate change (c. 2050) on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions between climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality, the ultimate goal of which is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential impacts of global change on air quality, including O3, particulate matter (PM), and mercury (Hg). The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment whose aim was to consider the effects of climate change alone, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the different groups, simulated global climate change causes increases in summertime O3 concentrations over some substantial regions of the country. These regional patterns of change, however, are not, in general, the same across the different simulations. These differences result from variations in the simulated patterns of mean changes in key meteorological drivers, such as temperature and surface insolation. Some regions, such as the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, show greater agreement across groups, whereas others, such as the West Coast and the Southeast, show wider disagreements. How isoprene nitrate chemistry is represented in the different modeling systems is an additional critical factor in the simulated O3 response to climate change.

  5. Climatic variability of river outflow in the Pantanal region and the influence of sea surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Carlos Batista; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Ambrizzi, Tércio

    2016-03-01

    This paper investigates possible linear relationships between climate, hydrology, and oceanic surface variability in the Pantanal region (in South America's central area), over interannual and interdecadal time ranges. In order to verify the mentioned relations, lagged correlation analysis and linear adjustment between river discharge at the Pantanal region and sea surface temperature were used. Composite analysis for atmospheric fields, air humidity flux divergence, and atmospheric circulation at low and high levels, for the period between 1970 and 2003, was analyzed. Results suggest that the river discharge in the Pantanal region is linearly associated with interdecadal and interannual oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making them good predictors to continental hydrological variables. Considering oceanic areas, 51 % of the annual discharge in the Pantanal region can be linearly explained by mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Subtropical North Pacific, Tropical North Pacific, Extratropical South Pacific, and Extratropical North Atlantic over the period. Considering a forecast approach in seasonal scale, 66 % of the monthly discharge variance in Pantanal, 3 months ahead of SST, is explained by the oceanic variables, providing accuracy around 65 %. Annual discharge values in the Pantanal region are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability (with 52 % of linear correlation), making it possible to consider an interdecadal variability and a consequent subdivision of the whole period in three parts: 1st (1970-1977), 2nd (1978-1996), and 3rd (1997-2003) subperiods. The three subperiods coincide with distinct PDO phases: negative, positive, and negative, respectively. Convergence of humidity flux at low levels and the circulation pattern at high levels help to explain the drier and wetter subperiods. During the wetter 2nd subperiod, the air humidity convergence at low levels is much more evident than during the other two

  6. A possible link between North Atlantic cooling and dry events in the core SW monsoon region identified from Lonar Lake in central India: Indication of a connection between solar output and monsoon variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menzel, P.; Gaye, B.; Prasad, S.; Plessen, B.; Stebich, M.; Anoop, A.; Riedel, N.; Basavaiah, N.

    2013-12-01

    Former comparison of climate sensitive proxies from natural archives of the northern monsoon domain with proxy data from mid and high latitude archives have proven a correlation between the proxies of both regions. But still some ambiguities concerning the mechanisms that drive this correlation exist. During our investigation of a sediment core from Lonar Lake in central India, which covers the complete Holocene sedimentation history of the lake, we could identify several phases of centennial scale climate alteration on the basis of stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, mineralogy, and amino acid derived degradation proxies. These phases correlate with climate sensitive proxies from the North Atlantic region as well as with 14C nuclide production rate, which indicates changes in solar output. The results from this first continuous, high resolution record of Holocene climate history from central India indicate sensitivity of monsoon climate to solar forcing. Additionally, a connection between North Atlantic climate and the climate of a region that is not affected by the Westerlies or shifts of the summer ITCZ to a position south of the investigation site could be identified.

  7. Cold-climate slope deposits and landscape modifications of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, Eastern USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Newell, W.L.; Dejong, B.D.

    2011-01-01

    The effects of Pleistocene cold-climate geomorphology are distributed across the weathered and eroded Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain uplands from the Wisconsinan terminal moraine south to Tidewater Virginia. Cold-climate deposits and landscape modifications are superimposed on antecedent landscapes of old, weathered Neogene upland gravels and Pleistocene marine terraces that had been built during warm periods and sea-level highstands. In New Jersey, sequences of surficial deposits define a long history of repeating climate change events. To the south across the Delmarva Peninsula and southern Maryland, most antecedent topography has been obscured by Late Pleistocene surficial deposits. These are spatially variable and are collectively described as a cold-climate alloformation. The cold-climate alloformation includes time-transgressive details of climate deterioration from at least marine isotope stage (MIS) 4 through the end of MIS 2. Some deposits and landforms within the alloformation may be as young as the Younger Dryas. Southwards along the trend of the Potomac River, these deposits and their climatic affinities become diffused. In Virginia, a continuum of erosion and surficial deposits appears to be the product of ‘normal’ temperate, climate-forced processes. The cold-climate alloformation and more temperate deposits in Virginia are being partly covered by Holocene alluvium and bay mud.

  8. US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sang-Ki; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Enfield, David B.; Weaver, Scott J.; Wang, Chunzai; Atlas, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950-2014. We show that the four dominant springtime El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Niño and resurgent versus transitioning La Niña) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.

  9. US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sang-Ki; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Enfield, David B.; Weaver, Scott J.; Wang, Chunzai; Atlas, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950–2014. We show that the four dominant springtime El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Niño and resurgent versus transitioning La Niña) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.

  10. Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

    2010-12-01

    Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

  11. Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, R.E.; Kennedy, P. NCAR, Boulder, CO )

    1992-10-01

    A simulation of the climate response to Amazon deforestation has been carried out. Precipitation is decreased on the average by 25 percent or 1.4 mm/day, with ET and runoff both decreasing by 0.7 mm/day. Modifications of surface energy balance through change of albedo and roughness are complicated by cloud feedbacks. The initial decrease of the absorption of solar radiation by higher surface albedos is largely cancelled by a reduction in cloud cover, but consequent reduction in downward longwave has a substantial impact on surface energy balance. Smoke aerosols might have an effect comparable to deforestation during burning season. 8 refs.

  12. Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: a linear baroclinic response to surface heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Rohit; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Baehr, Johanna; Bader, Jürgen

    2016-07-01

    The observed prominent multidecadal variations in the central to eastern (C-E) European summer temperature are closely related to the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). Using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis project version 2 data for the period of 1930-2012, we present a mechanism by which the multidecadal variations in the C-E European summer temperature are associated to a linear baroclinic atmospheric response to the AMV-related surface heat flux. Our results suggest that over the north-western Atlantic, the positive heat flux anomaly triggers a surface baroclinic pressure response to diabatic heating with a negative surface pressure anomaly to the east of the heat source. Further downstream, this response induces an east-west wave-like pressure anomaly. The east-west wave-like response in the sea level pressure structure, to which we refer as North-Atlantic-European East West (NEW) mode, is independent of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and is the principal mode of variations during summer over the Euro-Atlantic region at multidecadal time scales. The NEW mode causes warming of the C-E European region by creating an atmospheric blocking-like situation. Our findings also suggest that this NEW mode is responsible for the multidecadal variations in precipitation over the British Isles and north-western Europe.

  13. Origin of millennial-scale climate signals in the subtropical North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billups, Katharina; Scheinwald, Andre

    2014-06-01

    We present a high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope record (Globigerinoides ruber) spanning marine oxygen isotope stages (MISs) 6 through 8 in the northwestern subtropical Atlantic Ocean (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 172 Site 1059). The record fills a gap to produce an about 1.3 Myr long continuous time series of high-frequency (> ~1/12 kyr) surface ocean hydrography, the first of this kind. We test the hypothesis that the suborbital climate signals (i.e., half and quarter precession cycles) are linked to precession forcing in tropical latitudes. Semiprecession cycles present between 0 and 320 ka are of the right periodicity to relate to the dominant precession forcing (23 kyr). These cycles are evident as double peaks within the given precession framework, and there is good match in the amplitude modulation of the filter output and the δ18O time series. Quarter precession cycles dominate the suborbital spectra between 320 ka and 1.3 Ma. Periodicities are close to those expected from the harmonics of the dominant precession peaks in the δ18O record, but present in the time series only intermittently, and their amplitude modulation does not match that of the primary precession period. Thus, only the half precession cycles evidence a response to low-latitude insolation such as that introduced by insolation maxima at the equinoxes or solstices during the course of a precession cycle. Additionally, we find well-defined, rapid (~1.5-2 kyr) variations across the first of the interglacial maxima of MIS 7 adding to evidence of non-ice sheet-related forcing factors in driving climate instabilities.

  14. Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on Ocean Heat Uptake and Transient Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostov, Y. K.; Armour, K.; Marshall, J.

    2013-12-01

    The transient adjustment of the forced climate system towards equilibrium is characterized by two fundamental timescales: a 'fast' response of the atmosphere and the near-surface component of the climate system (the ocean's mixed layer and the land domain), and a 'slow' response of the deeper ocean. Two-layer energy balance models (EBMs) represent these inherent timescales very well and can be successfully calibrated to reproduce the output of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Using an idealized EBM framework, we analyze ocean heat uptake in AOGCMs forced with an abrupt greenhouse perturbation. We consider a set of models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). By fitting a two-layer EBM, we estimate the effective heat capacity of the ocean and the rate at which temperature anomalies propagate downward to intermediate depths, for each AOGCM. We further show that these EBM parameters can be related to physical properties of the CMIP5 transient simulations, such as the globally averaged depth scale of heat penetration below the mixed layer. Various dynamical processes represented in complex AOGCMs contribute to ocean heat uptake. Here we focus on the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its global imprint on the rate of surface warming. We show that the upper AMOC cell plays an essential role in setting both the effective thermal capacity of the world ocean and the rate of vertical heat transport. The strength and the downward extent of the AMOC differ vastly across the CMIP5 ensemble, and this provides a major source of intermodel variability in ocean heat uptake. In turn, ocean heat storage affects the spread of transient sea surface temperature (SST) responses. Models with a deeper and stronger AMOC take up more heat below the mixed layer and reach a smaller fraction of the equilibrium SST response on multi-decadal timescales.

  15. Simulation of Climatic Changes in the Arctic and North Atlantic During Recent Decades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The interactions of the atmosphere and ice-ocean system in the Arctic will be studied using a coupled ice-ocean model which will also use ice drift derived from microwave observations as forcing. We especially search for linkages between the recent large climatic shifts in the Arctic Ocean and atmosphere for which period we also have microwave sea ice data. The coupled model area covers the whole N. Atlantic thus interactions between the lower latitudes are also investigated because we anticipate that the same large scale atmospheric patterns which dominate the midlatitudes extend their influence on the Arctic. The model hindcast for 1951-1993 shows clear decadal variability in the leading modes of ocean circulation. No specific low-freq modes are expected for the ice drift because its spectrum is white. However, the ice drift exhibits two see-saw patterns in response to the leading atmospheric circulation mode ('Arctic Oscillation'), one of them is the well-known out of phase relationship between Baffin Bay and Barents-Kara Seas, the other one is between Siberian shelf and Alaskan Coast (Hakkinen and Geiger, 2000).

  16. Mechanisms Determining the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing in a Non-Flux-Adjusted Coupled Climate Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorpe, R. B.; Gregory, J. M.; Johns, T. C.; Wood, R. A.; Mitchell, J. F. B.

    2001-07-01

    Models of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) show a range of responses to the high-latitude warming and freshening characteristic of global warming scenarios. Most simulate a weakening of the THC, with some suggesting possible interruption of the circulation, but others exhibit little change. The mechanisms of the THC response to climate change using the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which gives a good simulation of the present-day THC and does not require flux adjustment, were studied. In a range of climate change simulations, the strength of the THC in HadCM3 is proportional to the meridional gradient of steric height (equivalent to column-integrated density) between 30°S and 60°N. During an integration in which CO2 increases at 2% per year for 70 yr, the THC weakens by about 20%, and it stabilizes at this level if the CO2 is subsequently held constant. Changes in surface heat and water fluxes are the cause of the reduction in the steric height gradient that derives the THC weakening, 60% being due to temperature change (greater warming at high latitudes) and 40% to salinity change (decreasing at high latitude, increasing at low latitude). The level at which the THC stabilizes is determined by advective feedbacks. As the circulation slows down, less heat is advected northward, which counteracts the in situ warming. At the same time, northward salinity advection increases because of a strong increase in salinity in the subtropical Atlantic, due to a greater atmospheric export of freshwater from the Atlantic to the Pacific. This change in interbasin transport means that salinity effects stabilize the circulation, in contrast to a single basin model of the THC, where salinity effects are destabilizing. These results suggest that the response of the Atlantic THC to anthropogenic forcing may be partly determined by events occurring outside the Atlantic basin.

  17. Non-stationarities in land-atmosphere-climate interactions in Europe and the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romberg, Karin; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2016-04-01

    Interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere are of major importance for the regional and global climate. Soil moisture thereby plays a key role: availability of water in the soils is one of the drivers of evaporation and thus impacts on temperature and precipitation. Regions of strong soil moisture-atmosphere coupling include the Mediterranean area while in other regions of Europe non-local effects such as the advection of dry (moist) air are more important. However, previous studies have also shown that climate is fundamentally non-stationary and that such non-stationarities occur on various spatial and temporal scales. These studies have mainly focused on sea-surface-atmosphere interactions or circulation-climate interactions. Thus, the question arises whether soil-moisture-atmosphere-climate interactions also show a non-stationary behavior. As a first step, Varimax-rotated s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce dimensions of soil moisture fields, circulation variables as well as of 2m temperature fields. The resulting PC loadings represent the spatial patterns while the PC scores are the corresponding time coefficients. For the analysis of non-stationarities, the time coefficients of soil moisture and temperature are further used in 30-year running correlation and feedback parameter analyses. Furthermore, correlation analyses are carried out for the circulation variables and soil moisture or temperature, as changes of the atmospheric circulation are a potential source of non-stationarities. All analyses focus on the boreal summer season 1950-2009. Results show substantial non-stationaries in the relationship between soil moisture and temperature in several regions in the European and Mediterranean domain. Depending on the region considered, these changes are accompanied by modifications in different large-scale circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavia pattern or a high pressure system centered

  18. The early Mesozoic Birdsboro central Atlantic margin basin in the Mid-Atlantic region, eastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Faill, R.T.

    2003-01-01

    The early Mesozoic Birdsboro basin (new name) was a single, elongate depositional trough in the present Mid-Atlantic area of the eastern United States, extending north-eastward from central Virginia across Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey into southern New York. What now remains after erosion comprises the Barboursville, Culpeper, Gettysburg, and Newark remnants. Some 7?? km of late Triassic and early Jurassic continental sediments of varying provenances entered and spread across in the Birdsboro basin in several depositional environments. The five resulting sedimentary lithosomes include feldspathic sandstone, quartzose sandstone, red silty mudstone, gray shale, and fanglomerate. The extensive interbedding, intertonguing, and lateral gradation among these lithosomes suggest that they were contemporary and closely interrelated. The feldspathic sandstone lithosome contains sediment with a southeastern provenance that accumulated in a bajada environment extending the length of the southeastern side of the basin. Sediment in the quartzose sandstone lithosome had a northwestern provenance-the coarse-grained fraction formed regional alluvial fans at the mouths of four major input centers. The finer-grained fraction was deposited in the distal reaches of these fans and in the playa environments in the interfan areas; this fraction formed the red silty mudstone lithosome. Gray/black shales and argillites of the gray shale lithosome accumulated in lacustrine environments in the interfan areas. The fanglomerate lithosome comprises numerous small, lobate deposits of poorly sorted sediment along both basin margins. The location and time of activity of the northwest input centers largely determined the distribution and areal extent of the various depositional environments and consequent lithosome along the length and across the width of the basin. The Birdsboro basin was deformed (tilted, faulted, and folded) sometime after the deposition of the youngest preserved rocks

  19. Anthropogenic and climatic influences on carbon fluxes from eastern North America to the Atlantic Ocean: A process-based modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Najjar, Raymond G.; Ren, Wei; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Pan, Shufen

    2015-04-01

    The magnitude, spatiotemporal patterns, and controls of carbon flux from land to the ocean remain uncertain. Here we applied a process-based land model with explicit representation of carbon processes in streams and rivers to examine how changes in climate, land conversion, management practices, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition affected carbon fluxes from eastern North America to the Atlantic Ocean, specifically the Gulf of Maine (GOM), Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), and South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Our simulation results indicate that the mean annual fluxes (±1 standard deviation) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the past three decades (1980-2008) were 2.37 ± 0.60, 1.06 ± 0.20, and 3.57 ± 0.72 Tg C yr-1, respectively. Carbon export demonstrated substantial spatial and temporal variability. For the region as a whole, the model simulates a significant decrease in riverine DIC fluxes from 1901 to 2008, whereas there were no significant trends in DOC or POC fluxes. In the SAB, however, there were significant declines in the fluxes of all three forms of carbon, and in the MAB subregion, DIC and POC fluxes declined significantly. The only significant trend in the GOM subregion was an increase in DIC flux. Climate variability was the primary cause of interannual variability in carbon export. Land conversion from cropland to forest was the primary factor contributing to decreases in all forms of C export, while nitrogen deposition and fertilizer use, as well as atmospheric CO2 increases, tended to increase DOC, POC, and DIC fluxes.

  20. Regional climate model performance in the Lake Victoria basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Karina; Chamberlain, Jill; Buontempo, Carlo; Bain, Caroline

    2015-03-01

    Lake Victoria, the second largest freshwater lake in the world, plays a crucial role in the hydrology of equatorial eastern Africa. Understanding how climate change may alter rainfall and evaporation patterns is thus of vital importance for the economic development and the livelihood of the region. Regional rainfall distribution appears, up to a large extent, to be controlled by local drivers which may be not well resolved in general circulation model simulations. We investigate the performance over the Lake Victoria basin of an ensemble of UK Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model (HadRM3P) simulations at 50 km, driven by five members of the Hadley Centre global perturbed-physics ensemble (QUMP). This is part of the validation of an ensemble of simulations that has been used to assess the impacts of climate change over the continent over the period 1950-2099. We find that the regional climate model is able to simulate a lake/land breeze over Lake Victoria, which is a significant improvement over the driving global climate model and a vital step towards reproducing precipitation characteristics in the region. The local precipitation correlates well with large-scale processes in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, which is in agreement with observations. We find that the spatial pattern of precipitation in the region and the diurnal cycle of convection is well represented although the amount of rainfall over the lake appears to be overestimated in most seasons. Reducing the observational uncertainty in precipitation over the lake through future field campaigns would enable this model bias to be better quantified. We conclude that increasing the spatial resolution of the model significantly improves its ability to simulate the current climate of the Lake Victoria basin. We suggest that, despite the higher computational costs, the inclusion of a model which allows two-way interactions between the lake and its surroundings should be seriously considered for

  1. Scrap tire management in the New York/Mid Atlantic region

    SciTech Connect

    Blumenthal, M.

    1995-05-01

    The Scrap Tire Management Council (STMC) is a North American tire manufactures sponsored, advocacy organization, created to identify and promote environmentally and economically sound markets for scrap tires. The primary goal of the Council is to assist in the creation of demand for 100 percent of the annually generated scrap tires in the United States. Based on current market demand and projected market growth, we envision the primary goal to be met by the turn of the century. A national overview of the scrap tire situation is presented, and then the situations in New York/Mid Atlantic region are discussed.

  2. Vegetation and climate development on the Atlantic Coastal Plain during the late Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (IODP Expedition 313)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prader, Sabine; Kotthoff, Ulrich; McCarthy, Francine; Greenwood, David

    2015-04-01

    which was reminiscent of Oligocene and early Miocene ecosystems analyzed in previous studies (e.g. Kotthoff et al. 2014). The ecosystem was characterized by oak-hickory forests which probably dominated in the lowlands, while frequent occurrence of conifer pollen (Pinus, Picea, Abies, Sciadopitys, and Tsuga canadensis) indicate that conifer forests prevailed in higher altitudes during the MMCO. We assume that the Miocene uplift of the Appalachian Mountains (e.g. Gallen et al., 2013) led to the proliferation of mountainous taxa and thus to an increase of related pollen taxa in the palynological record. References: Gallen, S. F., Wegmann, K. W., Bohnenstieh, D. W. R.: Miocene rejuvenation of topographic relief in the southern Appalachians, GSA Today, 23, 4-10, 2013. Kotthoff, U., McCarthy, F.M.G., Greenwood, D.R., Müller-Navarra, K., Prader, S., Hesselbo, S.P., (2014): Vegetation and climate development on the Atlantic Coastal Plain from 33 to 13 million years ago (IODP expedition 313). Climate of the Past 10, 1523-1539.

  3. Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges.

    PubMed

    Kueppers, Lara M; Snyder, Mark A; Sloan, Lisa C; Zavaleta, Erika S; Fulfrost, Brian

    2005-11-01

    In the coming century, anthropogenic climate change will threaten the persistence of restricted endemic species, complicating conservation planning. Although most efforts to quantify potential shifts in species' ranges use global climate model (GCM) output, regional climate model (RCM) output may be better suited to predicting shifts by restricted species, particularly in regions with complex topography or other regionally important climate-forcing factors. Using a RCM-based future climate scenario, we found that potential ranges of two California endemic oaks, Quercus douglasii and Quercus lobata, shrink considerably (to 59% and 54% of modern potential range sizes, respectively) and shift northward. This result is markedly different from that obtained by using a comparable GCM-based scenario, under which these species retain 81% and 73% of their modern potential range sizes, respectively. The difference between RCM- and GCM-based scenarios is due to greater warming and larger precipitation decreases during the growing season predicted by the RCM in these species' potential ranges. Based on the modeled regional climate change, <50% of protected land area currently containing these species is expected to contain them under a future midrange "business-as-usual" path of greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. Atmospheric Electric Field measurements at Eastern North Atlantic ARM Climate Research Facility: Global Electric Circuit Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopes, Francisco; Silva, Hugo; Nitschke, Kim; Azevedo, Eduardo

    2016-04-01

    The Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) facility of the ARM programme (established an supported by the U.S. Department of Energy with the collaboration of the local government and University of the Azores), is located at Graciosa Island of the Azores Archipelago (39° N; 28° W). It constitutes a strategic observatory for Atmospheric Electricity since it is located in the Atlantic Ocean basin exposed to clean marine aerosol conditions which reduces the well known spectral signature of atmospheric pollution and enables the study of the so called Global Electrical Circuit (GEC). First evidences of the existence of a GEC affecting the Earth's Electric Environment has retrieved by the Carnegie cruise expedition, in what became known as the Carnegie Curve. Those measurements were made in the Ocean in several campaigns and the present studies aims at reconsidering measurements in similar conditions but in a long-term basis, at least 5 years. This will contribute to the understanding of the long-term evolution of the Ionospheric Potential (IP). In literature there is theoretical evidence that it is decreasing IP in strength, but that conjecture is still lacking valid experimental evidence. Moreover, to clearly identify the GEC signal two effects must be taken into account: the effect of surface radon gas variation, because the Azores Archipelago is a seismic active region the possible influence of Earthquakes cannot be discarded easily; the effect of short-term solar activity on the Atmospheric Electricity modulation, solar flares emitting solar particles (e.g., solar energetic protons) need to be considered in this study.

  5. Atmospheric and Climate Aspects of Russian Regions Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golitsyn, G. S.; Dubovsky, S. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Mokhov, I. I.; Khomyakov, P. M.

    Russia is one of the first countries created the national program of sustainable devel- opment. The Presidential Decree SOn the national strategy of the Russian Federation & cedil;in the environment protection and sustainable developmentT was issued by in 1994. Atmospheric and climate aspects play very important roles in the sustainable devel- opment at the regional level in Russia as well as at national one. Last year Russian Academy of Sciences in collaboration with some leaders of the local Russian au- thorities started the Project SSustainable development of Russia and its regionsT. In & cedil; this project the problems of Russian socio-economical development are considered together with regional atmospheric and climate changes, environmental and natural resources, population, urbanization, energetic and new technology development, and so on. The main problems of Russian regions socio-economical development related to global and local climate changes, environmental and natural resources, urbanization will be discussed.

  6. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Sensitivity of the climate response to regional aerosol emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasoar, Matthew; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shawki, Dilshad

    2015-04-01

    Short-lived emissions like aerosols and their precursors have inhomogeneous distributions in the atmosphere. As a result, aerosol radiative forcing of the climate is highly uneven, and depends on both the location of emission as well as circulation patterns. Unlike well-mixed greenhouse gases such as CO2, the climate response to aerosol forcing may therefore be very dependent on the source region, and so understanding how the sensitivity of the climate varies with emission and forcing location has implications for the design of policy regarding short-lived climate forcers, as well as for understanding the coupling between radiative forcing and climate response. Using the UK Met Office's HadGEM3 composition-climate model, we have performed a series of experiments to investigate the climate response to aerosol species from different key anthropogenic emission regions, in particular East Asia, South Asia, the USA, and the whole northern mid-latitude band. Recent results from these simulations will be presented, focusing in particular on the patterns of climate forcing due to Asian anthropogenic emissions, and the resulting responses in surface temperature and precipitation. Large-scale circulation changes, driven by regional temperature gradients, are found to play an important role in explaining the observed climate responses, which can be substantial even in in parts of the world far from the location of the forcing. The correct magnitude of aerosol forcing remains, however, one of the greatest uncertainties in our current understanding of anthropogenic influences on climate. Aerosol radiative forcing varies considerably between different composition-climate models, and to explore the implications of this for climate responses we use the GISS Model-E2 and NCAR CESM1 models in addition to HadGEM3. These reveal a remarkable variation in the simulated climate response as a result of differences in the radiative forcing from identical perturbations to regional sulphate

  8. Climate aberrations during the middle Miocene: evidence from the eastern North Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quaijtaal, W.; Donders, T.; Schouten, S.; Louwye, S.

    2013-12-01

    During the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO; 17-14.5 Ma) the relatively warm climate of the Miocene reached peak temperatures. After the MMCO, the global climate started cooling through several short-lived cooling events, represented by positive oxygen isotope excursions: the Mi-events (Miocene isotope events). One of the more severe events, Mi-3, is associated with East Antarctic Ice Sheet growth and potential Northern Hemisphere ice expansion, as well as marine and terrestrial species turnover and aridification. The causes and consequences of the Mi-events are not well constrained yet. CO2 reconstructions combined with the abovementioned consequences suggest that a drawdown of CO2 and/or changes in ocean led to the changes surrounding Mi-3. A minimum node in both eccentricity and obliquity amplitude modulation, an orbital configuration creating favourable conditions for ice growth, has been suggested as a possible triggering mechanism as well. However, an exact cause cannot be pinpointed yet and more high-resolution records are needed in order to investigate the impact and order of events surrounding the Mi-events. Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Leg 307 recovered such a high resolution record from the middle Miocene of the Porcupine Basin (offshore south-western Ireland). We have analyzed well-preserved palynomorphs (mainly organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts, acritarchs and pollen) and organic molecules for paleothermometry (e.g. TEX86 and UK'37) from site U1318. With these proxies, the development of the Mi-3 event and following Mi-4 have been reconstructed in high resolution (ca. 13 kyr), by assessing e.g. temperature, sea level, thermocline depth and productivity. A pronounced cooling can be observed at Mi-3, and to a lesser degree in Mi-4 as well, together with a sea-level fall and a turnover in the dinocyst record. Our findings also include indications of aridification and a change in wind patterns during Mi-3. This confirms the dramatic

  9. Regional Climate Model Projections for the State of Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Salathe, E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yongxin

    2010-05-05

    Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional heterogeneity of the climate of the State of Washington. If future large-scale weather patterns interact differently with the local terrain and coastlines than current weather patterns, local changes in temperature and precipitation could be quite different from the coarse-scale changes projected by global models. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year climate simulations using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970-1999) to the mid 21st century (2030-2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in

  10. The influence of surface waves on water circulation in a mid-Atlantic continental shelf region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitlock, C. H.; Talay, T. A.

    1974-01-01

    The importance of wave-induced currents in different weather conditions and water depths (18.3 m and 36.6 m) is assessed in a mid-Atlantic continental-shelf region. A review of general circulation conditions is conducted. Factors which perturb the general circulation are examined using analytic techniques and limited experimental data. Actual wind and wave statistics for the region are examined. Relative magnitudes of the various currents are compared on a frequency of annual occurrence basis. Results indicated that wave-induced currents are often the same order of magnitude as other currents in the region and become more important at higher wind and wave conditions. Wind-wave and ocean-swell characteristics are among those parameters which must be monitored for the analytical computation of continental-shelf circulation.

  11. Regionally coherent Little Ice Age cooling in the Atlantic Warm Pool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Richey, J.N.; Poore, R.Z.; Flower, B.P.; Quinn, T.M.; Hollander, D.J.

    2009-01-01

    We present 2 new decadal-resolution foraminiferal Mg/Ca-SST records covering the past 6-8 centuries from the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). These records provide evidence for a Little Ice Age (LIA) cooling of 2??C, consistent with a published Mg/Ca record from Pigmy Basin. Comparison of these 3 records with existing SST proxy records from the GOM-Caribbean region show that the magnitude of LIA cooling in the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) was significantly larger than the mean hemispheric cooling of <1??C. We propose that a reduction in the intensity and spatial extent of the AWP during the LIA, combined with associated changes in atmospheric circulation may account for the regional SST patterns observed in the GOM-Caribbean region during the LIA. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenigk, Torben; Caian, Mihaela; Nikulin, Grigory; Schimanke, Semjon

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data and satellite sea ice data for the period 1980-2013. We find significant correlations between ice areas in both September and November and winter sea level pressure, air temperature and precipitation. The prediction skill is improved when using November sea ice conditions as predictor compared to September. This is particularly true for predicting winter NAO-like patterns and blocking situations in the Euro-Atlantic area. We find that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be most important for the sign of the following winter NAO—negative after low ice—but amplitude and extension of the patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. November ice variability in the Greenland Sea provides the best prediction skill for central and western European temperature and ice variations in the Laptev/East Siberian Seas have the largest impact on the blocking number in the Euro-Atlantic region. Over North America, prediction skill is largest using September ice areas from the Pacific Arctic sector as predictor. Composite analyses of high and low regional autumn ice conditions reveal that the atmospheric response is not entirely linear suggesting changing predictive skill dependent on sign and amplitude of the anomaly. The results confirm the importance of realistic sea ice initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. However, correlations do seldom exceed 0.6 indicating that Arctic sea ice variations can only explain a part of winter climate variations in northern mid and high latitudes.

  13. Direct and Indirect ENSO Influences on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Renguang

    2016-04-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the strongest signals in the tropics and imposes large influences on climate in many regions, such as the Indian summer monsoon, central American precipitation, and the South China Sea precipitation. ENSO affects regional climate variability both directly and indirectly. The direct influence is through concurrent atmospheric circulation response to anomalous heating associated with equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies. The indirect influence is by first inducing regional SST anomalies through the so-called "atmospheric bridge" and then atmospheric circulation response to the regional SST anomalies. Previous studies are either focused on the direct influence of ENSO via concurrent atmospheric change or the indirect influence of ENSO via regional SST anomalies. In this talk, the presenter will distinguish the direct and indirect influences of ENSO and demonstrate how the two types of influences may play together in leading to regional climate variability. Summer climate anomalies in three regions will be used for illustration: the Indian summer monsoon, central American summer precipitation, and the South China Sea summer precipitation.

  14. Storm activity in North Atlantic and precipitation anomalies in European region during winter seasons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyazilova, N. A.; Vyazilova, A. E.

    2009-09-01

    The purpose of this paper is to show the storm activity influence on the formation of wet and dry zone in North Atlantic and European region during winter seasons 1994/95, 2006/07 and 2007/08 years with positive mode of NAO, 1995/96, 2000/01 and 2005/06 years with negative mode of NAO. The study of storm activity includes the analyses of cyclonic intensity and cyclone track number. Analyses of cyclonic intensity based on calculation cyclone centers number (CCN) and sum of cyclone centers MSLP anomalies (CCMA). This analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm and the 6-hourly MSLP from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses 2 from 1979 to 2009. Precipitation anomalies were calculated from CMAP archive. Analyses had included the calculation of cyclone track number in all region [30°N-80°N, 50°W-70°E]and selected latitude zone for long cyclones (with lifetime more 2 day) and short cyclones (with lifetime less 2 day). The study had shown the special features of CCN and CCMA patterns in region for long and short cyclones. The study shows, that every winter season short cyclone track number twice as much long cyclone track number. However, the contribution of long cyclones in main determines the CCMA in region. Study had shown that winter seasons with positive NAO mode Nord Europe were outstanding by strong positive precipitation anomalies and strong cyclonic intensity, and during winter seasons with negative NAO mode in this region were observed negative precipitation anomalies and weak cyclonic activity. Standartizide anomalies of integral CCMA for selected latitude zone [55°N-80°N, 50°W-70°E] had shown the intensification of cyclonic activity over North Atlantic and North European region in last years.

  15. Recycling of construction debris as aggregate in the Mid-Atlantic Region, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, G.R.; Menzie, W.D.; Hyun, H.

    2004-01-01

    Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and portland cement concrete (RPCC) are abundant and available substitutes for natural aggregate in many areas. This paper presents an overview of factors that affect recycled aggregate cost, availability, and engineering performance, and the results of a survey of business practices in the Mid-Atlantic region. For RAP, processing costs are less than those for virgin natural aggregate. Use of efficient asphalt pavement stripping technology, on-site reclamation, and linked two-way transport of asphalt debris and processed asphalt paving mix between asphalt mix plants and paving sites has led to extensive recycling of asphalt pavement in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US. Most of the sites that recycle asphalt pavement (RAP) are located in or near urban areas close to important transportation corridors. RPCC is a viable aggregate source in urban settings where unit costs for processed aggregate from RPCC and natural aggregate are comparable. Disposal fees charged at RPCC recycling sites help defray processing costs and the significantly lower tipping fees at recycling sites versus landfill disposal sites encourage recycling of construction debris as aggregate. Construction contractors and construction debris recycling centers, many of which have the ability to crush and process concrete debris at the job site, produce most RPCC. Production of RPCC aggregate from construction debris that is processed on site using portable equipment moved to the construction site eliminates transportation costs for aggregate and provides an economic incentive for RPCC use. Processing costs, quality and performance issues, and lack of large quantities where needed limit RPCC use. Most RPCC suppliers in the Mid-Atlantic area are located in counties with population densities greater than 400 people/km2 (1036 people/mile2) and that have high unit-value costs and limited local availability of natural aggregate. ?? 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Projections of African drought extremes in CORDEX regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gbobaniyi, Emiola; Nikulin, Grigory; Jones, Colin; Kjellström, Erik

    2013-04-01

    We investigate trends in drought extremes for different climate regions of the African continent over a combined historical and future period 1951-2100. Eight CMIP5 coupled atmospheric global climate models (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR) under two forcing scenarios, the relative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with spatial resolution varying from about 1° to 3° are downscaled to 0.44° resolution by the Rossby Centre (SMHI) regional climate model RCA4. We use data from the ensuing ensembles of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations to explore three drought indices namely: standardized precipitation index (SPI), moisture index (MI) and difference in precipitation and evaporation (P-E). Meteorological and agricultural drought conditions are assessed in our analyses and a climate change signal is obtained for the SPI by calculating gamma functions for future SPI with respect to a baseline present climate. Results for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are inter-compared to assess uncertainties in the future projections. We show that there is a pronounced sensitivity to the choice of forcing GCM which indicates that assessments of future drought conditions in Africa would benefit from large model ensembles. We also note that the results are sensitive to the choice of drought index. We discuss both spatial and temporal variability of drought extremes for different climate zones of Africa and the importance of the ensemble mean. Our study highlights the usefulness of CORDEX simulations in identifying possible future impacts of climate at local and regional scales.

  17. Nonstationary impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the response of mid-latitude Eurasian climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Tingting; Shi, Zhengguo; Wang, Hongli; An, Zhisheng

    2016-04-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), although a local atmospheric mode over the North Atlantic Ocean, plays an important remote role in the Eurasian climate. However, the link between the NAO and Eurasian climate might be unstable. Here, we present a study on the relationship between the winter NAO and mid-latitude Eurasian climate, especially the mid-latitude East Asian precipitation, mainly based on meteorological data and output from an 1155-year-long coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulation. The results show that the winter NAO exerts a remarkable effect on the changes in mid-latitude Eurasian climate; however, the impact of the NAO is nonstationary. According to the model output, the impact of the NAO varies synchronously with the NAO variance with a period of around 150 years. During the high NAO variance period, the NAO has significant correlation with mid-latitude East Asian precipitation; low NAO variance periods do not. The variation of the NAO-precipitation teleconnection may arise from the changing influence of NAO on the local temperature. The NAO signal moves eastward by a zonally oriented wave train, where it modulates the atmospheric circulation structure, and thus results in the nonstationary relationship between the NAO and mid-latitude East Asian precipitation.

  18. Protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Tanja; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Williams, Eloise; Menne, Bettina

    2014-06-01

    "How far are we in implementing climate change and health action in the WHO European Region?" This was the question addressed to representatives of WHO European Member States of the working group on health in climate change (HIC). Twenty-two Member States provided answers to a comprehensive questionnaire that focused around eight thematic areas (Governance; Vulnerability, impact and adaptation (health) assessments; Adaptation strategies and action plans; Climate change mitigation; Strengthening health systems; Raising awareness and building capacity; Greening health services; and Sharing best practices). Strong areas of development are climate change vulnerability and impact assessments, as well as strengthening health systems and awareness raising. Areas where implementation would benefit from further action are the development of National Health Adaptation Plans, greening health systems, sharing best practice and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors. At the Parma Conference in 2010, the European Ministerial Commitment to Act on climate change and health and the European Regional Framework for Action to protect health from climate change were endorsed by fifty three European Member States. The results of this questionnaire are the most comprehensive assessment so far of the progress made by WHO European Member States to protecting public health from climate change since the agreements in Parma and the World Health Assembly Resolution in 2008.

  19. Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

    PubMed

    Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

    2013-12-01

    Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes.

  20. Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

    PubMed

    Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

    2013-12-01

    Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes. PMID

  1. CLIMLINK: Climate forcing factors for marine environmental change during the mid- and late Holocene - a link between the NE Atlantic and the Baltic Sea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polovodova Asteman, Irina; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; Bąk, Małgorzata; Binczewska, Anna; Borówka, Ryszard; Dobosz, Sławomir; Jansen, Eystein; Kaniak, Aleksandra; Moros, Matthias; Perner, Kerstin; Sławinska, Joanna

    2015-04-01

    Climate change has a strong amplifying effect on the environment of marginal seas such as the Baltic Sea. Owing to the connection of the Baltic Sea with the Atlantic (and the resultant pathway of water exchange via the narrow Danish Straits), changes in the Baltic region are suggested to be driven by external oceanic and atmospheric forcing originating in the Atlantic, particularly in the eastern Nordic seas, the Skagerrak, and the Kattegat. CLIMLINK aims to reconstruct mid- to late Holocene ecosystem changes in these regions and identify linkages, common forcing factors and effects for the Baltic Sea on a millennial to decadal time scale. High-resolution sediment records from selected key sites in the Norwegian Trench, and central Baltic Sea are studied by using a multi-proxy approach. Micropalaeontological studies of diatoms and foraminifera are combined with geochemical proxies, such as stable isotopes, Mg/Ca, TOC, TIC, C/N, XRF and magnetic susceptibility in order to achieve a more comprehensive view on environmental changes during the last 6000 to 8000 years. The chronology of the sediment cores is secured by using multiple dating tools: Hg-pollution records, 137Cs, 210Pb, 14C and tephra layers. Herein we present the initial results of the project.

  2. Impact of regional climate change on human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

    2005-11-01

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  3. A regional approach to climate adaptation in the Nile Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butts, Michael B.; Buontempo, Carlo; Lørup, Jens K.; Williams, Karina; Mathison, Camilla; Jessen, Oluf Z.; Riegels, Niels D.; Glennie, Paul; McSweeney, Carol; Wilson, Mark; Jones, Richard; Seid, Abdulkarim H.

    2016-10-01

    The Nile Basin is one of the most important shared basins in Africa. Managing and developing the water resources within the basin must not only address different water uses but also the trade-off between developments upstream and water use downstream, often between different countries. Furthermore, decision-makers in the region need to evaluate and implement climate adaptation measures. Previous work has shown that the Nile flows can be highly sensitive to climate change and that there is considerable uncertainty in climate projections in the region with no clear consensus as to the direction of change. Modelling current and future changes in river runoff must address a number of challenges; including the large size of the basin, the relative scarcity of data, and the corresponding dramatic variety of climatic conditions and diversity in hydrological characteristics. In this paper, we present a methodology, to support climate adaptation on a regional scale, for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods, droughts and water scarcity within the basin.

  4. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.

  5. Impact of regional climate change on human health.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

    2005-11-17

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  6. Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

    2014-12-01

    Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  7. Simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes using a coupled regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, S.; Mohr, K. I.

    2014-12-01

    The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. Global climate models, although capable of resolving synoptic-scale South American climate features, are inadequate for fully-resolving the strong gradients between climate regimes and the complex orography which define the Tropical Andes given their low spatial and temporal resolution. Recent computational advances now make practical regional climate modeling with prognostic mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled models, such as the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, to climate research. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the both the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data. More recently, COAWST simulations have also been shown to sensibly reproduce the entire annual cycle of rainfall (Oct 2003 - Oct 2004) with historical climate model input. Using future global climate model input for COAWST, the present work involves year-long cycle spanning October to October for the years 2031, 2059, and 2087 assuming the most likely regional climate pathway (RCP): RCP 6.0. COAWST output is used to investigate how global climate change impacts the spatial distribution, precipitation rates, and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns in the Central Andes vary in these yearly "snapshots". Initial results show little change to precipitation coverage or its diurnal cycle, however precipitation amounts did tend drier over the Brazilian Plateau and wetter over the Western Amazon and Central Andes. These results suggest potential adjustments to large-scale climate features (such as the Bolivian High).

  8. The WASCAL regional climate simulations for West Africa - how to add value to existing climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnault, J.; Heinzeller, D.; Klein, C.; Dieng, D.; Smiatek, G.; Bliefernicht, J.; Sylla, M. B.; Kunstmann, H.

    2015-12-01

    With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. WASCAL (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) is a large-scale research-focused program designed to enhance the resilience of human and environmental systems to climate change and increased variability. An integral part of its climate services is the provisioning of a new set of high resolution, ensemble-based regional climate change scenarios for the region of West Africa. In this contribution, we present the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate projections and provide information on the dissemination of the data. We discuss the model performance over the validation period for two of the three regional climate models employed, the Weather Research & Forecasting Tool (WRF) and the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Model COSMO in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM), and give details about a novel precipitation database used to verify the models. Particular attention is paid to the representation of the dynamics of the West African Summer Monsoon and to the added value of our high resolution models over existing data sets. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained from the WRF model runs for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 and compare them to current state-of-the-art projections from the CORDEX project. As an example, the figure shows the different climate change signals obtained for the total annual rainfall with respect to the 1980-2010 mean (WRF-E: WASCAL 12km high-resolution run MPI-ESM + WRFV3.5.1, CORDEX-E: 50km medium-resolution run MPI-ESM + RCA4, CORDEX-G: 50km medium-resolution run GFDL-ESM + RCA4).

  9. Informing Decisions with a Climate Synthesis Product: Implications for Regional Climate Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guido, Z.; Hill, D.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.

    2012-12-01

    The demand for regional climate information is increasing and spurring efforts to provide a broad slate of climate services that inform policy and resource management and elevate general knowledge. Routine syntheses of existing climate-related information may be an effective strategy for connecting climate information to decision making, but few studies have formally assessed their contribution to informing decisions. During the 2010-2011 winter, drought conditions expanded and intensified in Arizona and New Mexico, creating an opportunity to develop and evaluate a pithy, monthly regional climate communication product—La Niña Drought Tracker—that synthesized and interpreted drought and climate information. Six issues were published and subsequently evaluated through an online survey. On average, 417 people consulted the publication each month. Many of the survey respondents indicated that they made at least one drought-related decision, and the product at least moderately influenced the majority of those decisions, some of which helped mitigate economic losses and reduce climate vulnerability. The product also improved understanding of climate and drought for more than 90 percent of the respondents and helped the majority of them better prepare for drought. These, and other results demonstrate that routine interpretation and synthesis of existing climate information can help enhance access to and understanding and use of climate information in decision-making. Moreover, developing regional, contextual knowledge within climate service programs can facilitate the implementation of activities like the Tracker that enhance the use of climate information without engaging in time-consuming collaborative processes that can prevent the timely production of the services. We present results from the case study of the Tracker and place it within the context of the challenges and opportunities associated with providing climate services, particularly those services that

  10. COMPARISON OF MID-WESTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS EXPOSURE CRITERIA FOR PETROLEUM AND COMBUSTION BY-PRODUCTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional background levels of exposure to fish from petroleum and combustion by-products were determined for the state of Ohio (mid-Western) and the mid-Atlantic region. Exposures were measured using bile metabolites that fluoresce at 290/335 nm for naphthalene (NAPH)-type compou...

  11. DETERMINING BACKGROUND EXPOSURE TO PETROLEUM AND COMBUSTION BY-PRODUCTS: COMPARISON OF MID-WESTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional background levels of exposure to fish from petroleum and combustion by-products were determined for the state of Ohio and the mid-Atlantic region. Exposures were measured using bile metabolites that fluoresce at 290/335 nm for naphthalene(NAPH)-type compounds and at 380...

  12. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STREAM CHEMISTRY AND WATERSHED LAND COVER DATA IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, U.S.

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to investigate the relationship between stream chemistry and watershed land cover at the regional scale, we analyzed data from 368 wadeable streams sampled in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. during spring 1993-1994. Study sites were selected using a probability sampl...

  13. Meltwater and precipitation runoff to the North Atlantic, Arctic, and Gulf of Mexico from the Laurentide Ice Sheet and adjacent regions during the Younger Dryas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teller, James T.

    1990-12-01

    Runoff from North America may have played a significant role in ocean circulation and climate change during the last deglaciation. Because the driving force behind such changes may have been related to salinity of the north flowing Atlantic Ocean conveyor circulation, it is critical to know the volume, timing, and location of fresh water entering the North Atlantic from the melting Laurentide Ice Sheet. During the Younger Dryas cold episode, 11,000-10,000 years B.P., there was a two-fold increase in the volume of meltwater plus precipitation runoff, to more than 1700 km³ yr-1, flowing through the St. Lawrence valley to the North Atlantic, mainly because retreating ice allowed the glacial Lake Agassiz basin to drain eastward into the Great Lakes at this time. There was a corresponding decline in discharge from Lake Agassiz through the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico. Runoff to the Arctic Ocean also increased at about the beginning of the Younger Dryas, from 740 to 900 km³ yr-1, because of the capture of what is now the headwater region of the Mackenzie River watershed. This, in combination with rising sea level and warming climate, may have increased the amount of pack ice reaching the North Atlantic through the Norwegian Sea from the Arctic Ocean. At 10,000 years B.P., eastward overflow from the western interior of North America was blocked by advancing ice, again forcing overflow to the Gulf of Mexico and, possibly, to the northwest into the Arctic Ocean. Although total runoff to the oceans from all regions draining from the Laurentide Ice Sheet did not vary substantially between 12,000 and 9000 years B.P., if discharge to the Gulf of Mexico is excluded, fresh water reaching the North Atlantic averaged 4000 km³ yr-1 during the Younger Dryas, in contrast to 2870 km³ yr-1 just before this cold episode and 3440 km³ yr-1 just after it.

  14. Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2009-12-01

    Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach

  15. REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION: EVALUATION OF INTEGRATION METHODS AND ASSESSMENTS RESULTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes methods for quantitative regional assessment developed by the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program. The goal of ReVA is to develop regional-scale assessments of the magnitude, extent, distribution, and uncertainty of current and anticipated envir...

  16. ENSO influence on the North Atlantic European climate: a non-linear and non-stationary approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López-Parages, Jorge; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia

    2016-10-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on the North Atlantic European sector (NAE) is still under discussion. Recent studies have found a non stationary feature of this teleconnection, suggesting an effective modulating role of the ocean mean state. Nevertheless, physical explanations about the underlying mechanisms have been little studied in the available literature. In addition, ENSO events show different SST spatial patterns, phases, and amplitudes, which can also influence on the related remote impacts. In view of all this, in the present study a set of partially coupled experiments have been performed with a global atmospheric general circulation model in which different SST ENSO patterns are superimposed over distinct Pacific and Atlantic SST mean states. These SST background conditions are constructed according to the observational difference between periods with a distinct impact of ENSO on the leading Euro-Mediterranean rainfall mode in late winter-early spring. Our results point to two distinct mechanisms associated with ENSO that can be modulated by the SST mean state: (1) the thermally driven direct circulation (Walker and Hadley cells) connecting the Atlantic and Pacific basins, and (2) the Rossby wave propagation from the tropical Pacific to the North Atlantic. The former elucidates that the positive NAO-like pattern usually related to La Niña events could be only valid for selected decades. The latter explains a reinforced signature of Eastern Pacific Niños on the Euro-Mediterranean rainfall when the tropical Pacific is warmer than usual and the North Atlantic is colder than usual. This feature is consistent with the changing ENSO impact identified in previous studies and demonstrates how the ENSO teleconnection with the NAE climate at interannual timecales could be modulated by multidecadal changes in the SST. According to our results, the assumption of stationarity which is still common to many studies of ENSO teleconnections clearly has to