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Sample records for australia monitoring prediction

  1. Using a multi-parameter monitoring methodology to predict failures in the cryogenic plant of the cold neutron source at Australia's OPAL reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Weijian; Thiering, Russell

    2012-06-01

    A 5 kW Brayton-cycle helium refrigeration plant provides cooling at 20 K to the Cold Neutron Source (CNS) at Australia's OPAL Reactor. During several years of operation to the present day, the plant has experienced an unusually high number of turbine and compressor failures. The root cause for some of the failures is known, but for others remains to be determined. All of the failures were catastrophic without any prior warning from standard industrial monitoring based on singular process variables such as temperature, pressure and vibration. The failures and the down time they caused have been very costly. As the operator of the plant, we have developed a multi-parameter monitoring (MPM) methodology to track the performance of the plant. The methodology utilises indicators obtained from a combination of process variables based on their thermodynamic relations. By studying the historical trends of appropriate indicators, especially during the past failures, we have found some indicators that would be able to improve our predictive capability so that we can avoid similar failures in the future.

  2. Building a Continental Scale Land Cover Monitoring Framework for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thankappan, Medhavy; Lymburner, Leo; Tan, Peter; McIntyre, Alexis; Curnow, Steven; Lewis, Adam

    2012-04-01

    Land cover information is critical for national reporting and decision making in Australia. A review of information requirements for reporting on national environmental indicators identified the need for consistent land cover information to be compared against a baseline. A Dynamic Land Cover Dataset (DLCD) for Australia has been developed by Geoscience Australia and the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently, to provide a comprehensive and consistent land cover information baseline to enable monitoring and reporting for sustainable farming practices, water resource management, soil erosion, and forests at national and regional scales. The DLCD was produced from the analysis of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data at 250-metre resolution derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the period from 2000 to 2008. The EVI time series data for each pixel was modelled as 12 coefficients based on the statistical, phenological and seasonal characteristics. The time series were then clustered in coefficients spaces and labelled using ancillary information on vegetation and land use at the catchment scale. The accuracy of the DLCD was assessed using field survey data over 25,000 locations provided by vegetation and land management agencies in State and Territory jurisdictions, and by ABARES. The DLCD is seen as the first in a series of steps to build a framework for national land cover monitoring in Australia. A robust methodology to provide annual updates to the DLCD is currently being developed at Geoscience Australia. There is also a growing demand from the user community for land cover information at better spatial resolution than currently available through the DLCD. Global land cover mapping initiatives that rely on Earth observation data offer many opportunities for national and international programs to work in concert and deliver better outcomes by streamlining efforts on development and

  3. ECLSS predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.; Chien, Steve A.

    1991-01-01

    On Space Station Freedom (SSF), design iterations have made clear the need to keep the sensor complement small. Along with the unprecendented duration of the mission, it is imperative that decisions regarding placement of sensors be carefully examined and justified during the design phase. In the ECLSS Predictive Monitoring task, we are developing AI-based software to enable design engineers to evaluate alternate sensor configurations. Based on techniques from model-based reasoning and information theory, the software tool makes explicit the quantitative tradeoffs among competing sensor placements, and helps designers explore and justify placement decisions. This work is being applied to the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) testbed at MSFC to assist design personnel in placing sensors for test purposes to evaluate baseline configurations and ultimately to select advanced life support system technologies for evolutionary SSF.

  4. Multi-proxy monitoring approaches at Kangaroo Island, South Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dixon, Bronwyn; Drysdale, Russell; Tyler, Jonathan; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-04-01

    Interpretations of geochemical signals preserved in young speleothems are greatly enhanced by comprehensive cave-site monitoring. In the light of this, a cave monitoring project is being conducted concurrently with the development of a new palaeoclimate record from Kelly Hill Cave (Kangaroo Island, South Australia). The site is strategically located because it is situated between longer-lived monitoring sites in southeastern and southwestern Australia, as well as being climatically 'upstream' from major population and agricultural centres. This study aims to understand possible controls on speleothem δ18O in Kelly Hill Cave through i. identification of local and regional δ18O drivers in precipitation; and ii. preservation and modification of climatic signals within the epikarst as indicated by dripwater δ18O. These aims are achieved through analysis of a five-year daily rainfall (amount and δ18O) dataset in conjunction with in-cave drip monitoring. Drivers of precipitation δ18O were identified through linear regression between δ18O values and local meteorological variables, air-parcel back trajectories, and synoptic-typing. Synoptically driven moisture sources were identified through the use of NCEP/NCAR climate reanalysis sea-level pressure, precipitable moisture, and outgoing longwave radiation data in order to trace moisture sources and travel mechanisms from surrounding ocean basins. Local controls on δ18O at Kelly Hill Cave are consistent with published interpretations of southern Australia sites, with oxygen isotopes primarily controlled by rainfall amount on both daily and monthly time scales. Back-trajectory analysis also supports previous observations that the Southern Ocean is the major source for moisture-bearing cold-front systems. However, synoptic typing of daily rainfall δ18O and amount extremes reveals a previously unreported tropical connection and moisture source. This tropical connection appears to be strongest in summer and autumn, but

  5. HABs Monitoring and Prediction

    EPA Science Inventory

    Monitoring techniques for harmful algal blooms (HABs) vary across temporal and spatial domains. Remote satellite imagery provides information on water quality at relatively broad spatial and lengthy temporal scales. At the other end of the spectrum, local in-situ monitoring tec...

  6. HABs Monitoring and Prediction

    EPA Science Inventory

    Monitoring techniques for harmful algal blooms (HABs) vary across temporal and spatial domains. Remote satellite imagery provides information on water quality at relatively broad spatial and lengthy temporal scales. At the other end of the spectrum, local in-situ monitoring tec...

  7. Monitoring fossil fuel sources of methane in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loh, Zoe; Etheridge, David; Luhar, Ashok; Hibberd, Mark; Thatcher, Marcus; Noonan, Julie; Thornton, David; Spencer, Darren; Gregory, Rebecca; Jenkins, Charles; Zegelin, Steve; Leuning, Ray; Day, Stuart; Barrett, Damian

    2017-04-01

    CSIRO has been active in identifying and quantifying methane emissions from a range of fossil fuel sources in Australia over the past decade. We present here a history of the development of our work in this domain. While we have principally focused on optimising the use of long term, fixed location, high precision monitoring, paired with both forward and inverse modelling techniques suitable either local or regional scales, we have also incorporated mobile ground surveys and flux calculations from plumes in some contexts. We initially developed leak detection methodologies for geological carbon storage at a local scale using a Bayesian probabilistic approach coupled to a backward Lagrangian particle dispersion model (Luhar et al. JGR, 2014), and single point monitoring with sector analysis (Etheridge et al. In prep.) We have since expanded our modelling techniques to regional scales using both forward and inverse approaches to constrain methane emissions from coal mining and coal seam gas (CSG) production. The Surat Basin (Queensland, Australia) is a region of rapidly expanding CSG production, in which we have established a pair of carefully located, well-intercalibrated monitoring stations. These data sets provide an almost continuous record of (i) background air arriving at the Surat Basin, and (ii) the signal resulting from methane emissions within the Basin, i.e. total downwind methane concentration (comprising emissions including natural geological seeps, agricultural and biogenic sources and fugitive emissions from CSG production) minus background or upwind concentration. We will present our latest results on monitoring from the Surat Basin and their application to estimating methane emissions.

  8. Therapeutic monitoring of clozapine in Australia: the need for consensus.

    PubMed

    Oo, Thein Z; Wilson, John F; Naidoo, Divania; Chetty, Manoranjenni

    2006-10-01

    In the absence of well-defined guidelines for the monitoring of plasma concentrations of clozapine, this study examined the practices of seven laboratories from four states in Australia. Laboratories analyzed 5 freeze-dried serum samples containing a mixture of clozapine and norclozapine in varying concentrations and the measurement data were analyzed for accuracy and precision. Additional information on laboratory practices was obtained through questionnaire responses. Measurement precision amongst the laboratories was good but there were significant differences in the accuracy of measurements from one laboratory. There were differences in the ranges for which assays had been validated and in suggested therapeutic ranges. These differences could have a significant impact on the interpretation of measured concentrations and patient care, and emphasize the need for consensus in this area. Repeat concentration measurements are recommended in the case of drug concentration measurements that are inconsistent with clinical observations or previous measurements.

  9. Does Soil Moisture Influence Climate Variability and Predictability over Australia?.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timbal, B.; Power, S.; Colman, R.; Viviand, J.; Lirola, S.

    2002-05-01

    Interannual variations of Australian climate are strongly linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. However, the impact of other mechanisms on prediction, such as atmosphere-land surface interactions, has been less frequently investigated. Here, the impact of soil moisture variability on interannual climate variability and predictability is examined using the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre atmospheric general circulation model. Two sets of experiments are run, each with five different initial conditions. In the first set of experiments, soil moisture is free to vary in response to atmospheric forcing in each experiment according to a set of simple prognostic equations. A potential predictability index is computed as the ratio of the model's internal variability to its external forced variability. This estimates the level of predictability obtained assuming perfect knowledge of future ocean surface temperatures. A second set of five experiments with prescribed soil moisture is performed. A comparison between these two sets of experiments reveals that fluctuations of soil moisture increase the persistence, the variance, and the potential predictability of surface temperature and rainfall. The interrelationship between these two variables is also strongly dependent upon the soil water content. Results are particularly marked over Australia in this model. A novel feature of this study is the focus on the effectiveness of ENSO-based statistical seasonal forecasting over Australia. Forecasting skill is shown to be crucially dependent upon soil moisture variability over the continent. In fact, surface temperature forecasts in this manner are not possible without soil moisture variability. This result suggests that a better representation of land-surface interaction has the potential to increase the skill of seasonal prediction schemes.

  10. Monitoring drug markets in the Internet age and the evolution of drug monitoring systems in Australia.

    PubMed

    Burns, Lucy; Roxburgh, Amanda; Bruno, Raimondo; Van Buskirk, Joe

    2014-01-01

    In Australia, drug monitoring systems have been in place for more than a decade allowing for the measurement of ongoing trends in drug use and the detection of new drugs. The Drug Trends Unit at the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre monitors drugs through four separate systems. The Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS) measures the price, purity, and availability of drugs that are primarily injected. The Ecstasy and Related Drugs Reporting System (EDRS) monitors psychostimulants that are used recreationally. The National Illicit Drugs Indicator Project (NIDIP) analyzes indicator data including drug-related hospitalizations and deaths. Finally, the Drugs and Emerging Technologies Project (DNeT) analyzes the role of the Internet in the procurement and use of novel psychoactive substances. This paper provides an overview of each component of the system, demonstrating how the system has evolved over time.

  11. Monitoring the Galactic Centre with the Australia Telescope Compact Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkar, A.; Eckart, A.; Straubmeier, C.; Kunneriath, D.; Jalali, B.; Sabha, N.; Shahzamanian, B.; García-Marín, M.; Valencia-S, M.; Sjouwerman, L.; Britzen, S.; Karas, V.; Dovčiak, M.; Donea, A.; Zensus, A.

    2016-05-01

    The supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), at the centre of the Milky Way undergoes regular flaring activity, which is thought to arise from the innermost region of the accretion flow. Between 2010 and 2014, we performed monitoring observations of the Galactic Centre to study the flux-density variations at 3 mm using the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). We obtain light curves of Sgr A* by subtracting the contributions from the extended emission around it, and the elevation and time-dependent gains of the telescope. We perform structure function analysis and the Bayesian blocks representation to detect flare events. The observations detect six instances of significant variability in the flux density of Sgr A* in three observations, with variations between 0.5 and 1.0 Jy, which last for 1.5-3 h. We use the adiabatically expanding plasmon model to explain the short time-scale variations in the flux density. We derive the physical quantities of the modelled flare emission, such as the source expansion speed vexp, source sizes, spectral indices and the turnover frequency. These parameters imply that the expanding source components are either confined to the immediate vicinity of Sgr A* by contributing to the corona or the disc, or have a bulk motion greater than vexp. No exceptional flux-density variation on short flare time-scales was observed during the approach and the flyby of the dusty S-cluster object (DSO/G2). This is consistent with its compactness and the absence of a large bow shock.

  12. Australia.

    PubMed

    1989-03-01

    The smallest continent and one of the largest countries, Australia is a country of diverse geographical conditions and differing cultures of people unified by one predominant language and political system. Mountains, desert and rivers are some of the varying landscape features of Australia, although the climate and condition for most of the country is tropical. Original Australians, a hunting-gathering people called Aborigines, came to Australia over 38,000 years ago. Today the Aborigines compose about 1% of the population and live in traditional tribal areas as well as cities. The 1st European settlement came in 1788 from Great Britain. After World War II, the population doubled. Although the population is primarily composed of British and Irish immigrants, immigrants from other European countries such as Italy and Greece as well as refugees from Indochina, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are a significant factor to the growing Australian population. Australian and Aboriginal culture has took hold and took notice in the areas of opera, art, literature and film. The Australian Commonwealth is based on a constitution similar to that of the United States government. The National Parliament is bicameral with both the Senate and the House of Representatives having a select number of elected officials from each state and territory. The Australian economy is predominantly reliant on the sale of mineral and agricultural exports. History, economic changes, defense, international relations and notes to the traveler are also discussed in this overview of Australia.

  13. Monitoring International Interest in Transnational Academic Mobility to Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, John L.

    2011-01-01

    This research examines the issue of transnational academic mobility of academic staff looking at potential moves to higher education institutions in Australia. By establishing a web-based portal, attracting interested parties from around the world with information about Australian universities and subsequent career opportunities, web analytics are…

  14. The appropriateness of opt-out consent for monitoring childhood obesity in Australia.

    PubMed

    Lacy, K; Kremer, P; de Silva-Sanigorski, A; Allender, S; Leslie, E; Jones, L; Fornaro, S; Swinburn, B

    2012-10-01

    Childhood obesity monitoring is a fundamental component of obesity prevention but is poorly done in Australia. Monitoring obesity prevalence in children provides important population health data that can be used to track trends over time, identify areas at greatest risk of obesity, determine the effectiveness of interventions and policies, raise awareness and stimulate action. High participation rates are essential for effective monitoring because these provide more representative data. Passive ('opt-out') consent has been shown to provide high participation rates in international childhood obesity monitoring programs and in a recent Australian federal initiative monitoring early child development. A federal initiative structured like existing child development monitoring programs, but with the authority to collect height and weight measurements using opt-out consent, is recommended to monitor rates of childhood obesity in Australia.

  15. Seasonal Dynamical Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spillman, C. M.; Alves, O.

    2009-05-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is now recognised as the primary cause of mass coral bleaching events. Coral bleaching occurs during times of stress, particularly when SSTs exceed the coral colony's tolerance level. Global warming is potentially a serious threat to the future of the world's reef systems with predictions by the international community that bleaching will increase in both frequency and severity. Advance warning of anomalous sea surface temperatures, and thus potential bleaching events, would allow for the implementation of management strategies to minimise reef damage. Seasonal SST forecasts from the coupled ocean-atmosphere model POAMA (Bureau of Meteorology) have skill in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) several months into the future. We will present model forecasts and probabilistic products for use in reef management, and assess model skill in the region. These products will revolutionise the way in which coral bleaching events are monitored and assessed in the Great Barrier Reef and Australian region.

  16. Designing optimal greenhouse gas monitoring networks for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziehn, T.; Law, R. M.; Rayner, P. J.; Roff, G.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric transport inversion is commonly used to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) flux estimates from concentration measurements. The optimal location of ground-based observing stations that supply these measurements can be determined by network design. Here, we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) in reverse mode together with a Bayesian inverse modelling framework to derive optimal GHG observing networks for Australia. This extends the network design for carbon dioxide (CO2) performed by Ziehn et al. (2014) to also minimise the uncertainty on the flux estimates for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both individually and in a combined network using multiple objectives. Optimal networks are generated by adding up to five new stations to the base network, which is defined as two existing stations, Cape Grim and Gunn Point, in southern and northern Australia respectively. The individual networks for CO2, CH4 and N2O and the combined observing network show large similarities because the flux uncertainties for each GHG are dominated by regions of biologically productive land. There is little penalty, in terms of flux uncertainty reduction, for the combined network compared to individually designed networks. The location of the stations in the combined network is sensitive to variations in the assumed data uncertainty across locations. A simple assessment of economic costs has been included in our network design approach, considering both establishment and maintenance costs. Our results suggest that, while site logistics change the optimal network, there is only a small impact on the flux uncertainty reductions achieved with increasing network size.

  17. Critical design features for establishing a childhood obesity monitoring program in Australia.

    PubMed

    Lacy, Kathleen E; Nichols, Melanie S; de Silva, Andrea M; Allender, Steven E; Swinburn, Boyd A; Leslie, Eva R; Jones, Laura V; Kremer, Peter J

    2015-01-01

    Efforts to combat childhood obesity in Australia are hampered by the lack of quality epidemiological data to routinely monitor the prevalence and distribution of the condition. This paper summarises the literature on issues relevant to childhood obesity monitoring and makes recommendations for implementing a school-based childhood obesity monitoring program in Australia. The primary purpose of such a program would be to collect population-level health data to inform both policy and the development and evaluation of community-based obesity prevention interventions. Recommendations are made for the types of data to be collected, data collection procedures and program management and evaluation. Data from an obesity monitoring program are crucial for directing and informing policies, practices and services, identifying subgroups at greatest risk of obesity and evaluating progress towards meeting obesity-related targets. Such data would also increase the community awareness necessary to foster change.

  18. Prediction of Bluetongue virus seropositivity on pastoral properties in northern Australia using remotely sensed bioclimatic variables.

    PubMed

    Klingseisen, Bernhard; Stevenson, Mark; Corner, Robert

    2013-06-01

    To monitor Bluetongue virus (BTV) activity in northern and eastern Australia the National Arbovirus Monitoring Program (NAMP) collects data from a network of sentinel herds. Groups of young cattle, previously unexposed to infection, are regularly tested to detect evidence of seroconversion. While this approach has been successful in fulfilling international surveillance requirements, it is labour and cost intensive and operationally challenging in the remote area of the northern Australian rangelands. The aim of this study was to assess the suitability of remotely sensed data as a means for predicting the distribution of BTV seroprevalence. For the period 2000-2009, bioclimatic variables were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data products for the entire Northern Territory. A generalised linear model, based on the seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and minimum land surface temperature, was developed to predict BTV seropositivity. The odds of seropositivity in locations with NDVI estimates >0.45 was 3.90 (95% CI 1.11 to 13.7) times that of locations where NDVI estimates were between 0 and 0.45. Unit increases in minimum night land surface temperature in the previous winter increased the odds of seropositivity by a factor of 1.40 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.91). The area under a Receiver Operator Characteristic curve generated on the basis of the model predictions was 0.8. Uncertainty in the model's predictions was attributed to the spatio-temporal inconsistency in the precision of the available serosurveillance data. The discriminatory ability of models of this type could be improved by ensuring that exact location details and date of NAMP BTV test events are consistently recorded. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Predicted Spatial Spread of Canine Rabies in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Fleming, Peter J. S.; Ward, Michael P.; Davis, Stephen A.

    2017-01-01

    Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a new infectious case appeared 120 km from the index case. We found 21% of initial value settings resulted in canine rabies spreading 120km, and on doing so at a median speed of 67 km/year. Parameters governing dog movements and behaviour, around which there is a paucity of knowledge, explained most of the variance in model outcomes. Dog density, especially when interactions with other parameters were included, explained some of the variance in whether rabies spread 120km, but dog demography (mean lifespan and mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide a clear research direction if Australia is to improve its preparedness for rabies. PMID:28114327

  20. Predicted Spatial Spread of Canine Rabies in Australia.

    PubMed

    Johnstone-Robertson, Simon P; Fleming, Peter J S; Ward, Michael P; Davis, Stephen A

    2017-01-01

    Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a new infectious case appeared 120 km from the index case. We found 21% of initial value settings resulted in canine rabies spreading 120km, and on doing so at a median speed of 67 km/year. Parameters governing dog movements and behaviour, around which there is a paucity of knowledge, explained most of the variance in model outcomes. Dog density, especially when interactions with other parameters were included, explained some of the variance in whether rabies spread 120km, but dog demography (mean lifespan and mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide a clear research direction if Australia is to improve its preparedness for rabies.

  1. A survey of the management of neuromuscular blockade monitoring in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Phillips, S; Stewart, P A; Bilgin, A B

    2013-05-01

    This survey of anaesthetists in Australia and New Zealand aimed to investigate their attitudes and practice relating to the management of neuromuscular blockade monitoring. All medical practitioner members (3188) of the Australian and New Zealand Societies of Anaesthetists were invited to complete an anonymous survey, which was available online for two months. A total of 678 survey questionnaires were completed (response rate 21%). Most respondents (71.4%) underestimated the incidence of residual neuromuscular blockade and 63.2% believed this to be a significant clinical problem. Objective monitoring of neuromuscular function was used routinely only by 17% of respondents, although 70% believed routine monitoring would reduce the incidence of residual neuromuscular blockade. Only 25% of respondents correctly indicated that quantitative train-of-four counts of greater than 90% were the accepted criteria for safe extubation, with 52% using clinical judgement only. Only 29% of respondents believed neuromuscular function monitors should be part of minimum monitoring standards; quantitative neuromuscular function monitors were not available in 42% of the hospitals in which the respondents practiced. Despite the low response rate, the large sample size and heterogeneity of respondents make the findings of this survey concerning. There is a need for more education, availability of appropriate monitoring equipment and evidence-based guidelines for management of neuromuscular blockade in Australia and New Zealand.

  2. Sun exposure predicts risk of ocular melanoma in Australia.

    PubMed

    Vajdic, Claire M; Kricker, Anne; Giblin, Michael; McKenzie, John; Aitken, Joanne; Giles, Graham G; Armstrong, Bruce K

    2002-09-10

    Previous studies examining sun exposure and ocular melanoma have produced inconsistent results. We investigated this association in a population-based case-control study in Australia. Cases (n = 290) aged 18-79 years were diagnosed between January 1996 and July 1998. Controls (n = 893) were randomly selected from the electoral rolls and frequency-matched to cases by age, sex and state. A self-administered questionnaire and a telephone interview measured sun exposure on weekdays and weekends at 10, 20, 30 and 40 years of age and over the whole of life for specific jobs and recreations. Multivariate logistic regression models of ocular melanoma and sun exposure contained age, sex, region of birth, eye color and measures of ocular and cutaneous sun sensitivity as covariates. Choroid and ciliary body melanoma (n = 246) was positively associated with time outdoors on weekdays and, less persuasively, total time outdoors but not ambient solar irradiance. Odds ratios increased with increasing exposure to OR 1.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1-2.8) for the highest quarter of sun exposure on weekdays up to 40 years of age for men and women together. The strongest positive associations were for total exposure up to 40 years of age, lifetime occupational exposure and total exposure at about 20 years of age in men; all had odds ratios between 2 and 3 in the highest exposure categories. There was inconclusive evidence for an association between sun exposure and iris (n = 25) or conjunctival (n = 19) melanomas. Sun exposure is an independent risk factor for choroidal and ciliary body melanoma in Australia. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  3. Perceived coping & concern predict terrorism preparedness in Australia.

    PubMed

    Stevens, Garry; Agho, Kingsley; Taylor, Melanie; Jones, Alison L; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

    2012-12-27

    In the aftermath of major terrorist incidents research shows population shifts towards protective behaviours, including specific preparedness and avoidance responses. Less is known about individual preparedness in populations with high assumed threat but limited direct exposure, such as Australia. In this study we aimed to determine whether individuals with high perceived coping and higher concern would show greater preparedness to respond to terrorism threats. Adults in New South Wales (NSW) completed terrorism perception and response questions as part of computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) in 2010 (N=2038). Responses were weighted against the NSW population. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between personal coping/concern factors and terrorism-related preparedness and avoidance behaviours, and to control for potential confounders such as socio-demographic and threat perception factors. Increased vigilance for suspicious behaviours was the most commonly reported behavioural response to perceived terrorism threat. Multivariate analyses showed that the factor combination of high perceived coping and higher concern was the most consistent predictor of terrorism preparedness behaviours and evacuation intentions, including increased vigilance (Adjusted Odd Ratios (AOR)=2.07, p=0.001) learning evacuation plans (AOR=1.61, p=0.05), establishing emergency contact plans (AOR=2.73, p<0.001), willingness to evacuate homes (AOR=2.20, p=0.039), and willingness to evacuate workplaces or public facilities (AOR=6.19, p=0.015) during potential future incidents. The findings of this study suggest that terrorism preparedness behaviours are strongly associated with perceived high coping but that this relationship is also mediated by personal concerns relating to this threat. Cognitive variables such as coping self-efficacy are increasingly targeted as part of natural hazard preparedness and are a viable intervention target for

  4. Improving Climate Prediction By Climate Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroy, S. S.; Redaelli, G.; Grassi, B.

    2014-12-01

    Various climate agencies are pursuing concepts of space-based atmospheric monitoring based on ideas of empirically verifiable accuracy in observations. Anticipating that atmospheric monitoring systems based in observing the emitted longwave spectrum, the reflected shortwave spectrum, and radio occultation are implemented, we seek to discover how long-term records in these quantities might be used to improve our ability to predict climate change. This is a follow-up to a previous study that found that climate monitoring by remote sensing better informs climate prediction than does climate monitoring in situ. We have used the output of a CMIP5 historical scenario to hind-cast observation types being considered for space-based atmospheric monitoring to modify ensemble prediction of multi-decadal climate change produced by a CMIP5 future scenario. Specifically, we have considered spatial fingerprints of 1970­-2005 averages and trends in hind-cast observations to improve global average surface air temperature change from 2005 to 2100. Correlations between hind-cast observations at individual locations on the globe and multi-decadal change are generally consistent with a null-correlation distribution. We have found that the modes in inter-model differences in hind-casts are clearly identified with tropical clouds, but only Arctic warming as can be identified in radio occultation observations correlates with multi-decadal change, but only with 80% confidence. Understanding how long-term monitoring can be used to improve climate prediction remains an unsolved problem, but it is anticipated that improving climate prediction will depend strongly on an ability to distinguish between climate forcing and climate response in remotely sensed observables.

  5. Perceived coping & concern predict terrorism preparedness in Australia

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In the aftermath of major terrorist incidents research shows population shifts towards protective behaviours, including specific preparedness and avoidance responses. Less is known about individual preparedness in populations with high assumed threat but limited direct exposure, such as Australia. In this study we aimed to determine whether individuals with high perceived coping and higher concern would show greater preparedness to respond to terrorism threats. Methods Adults in New South Wales (NSW) completed terrorism perception and response questions as part of computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) in 2010 (N=2038). Responses were weighted against the NSW population. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between personal coping/concern factors and terrorism-related preparedness and avoidance behaviours, and to control for potential confounders such as socio-demographic and threat perception factors. Results Increased vigilance for suspicious behaviours was the most commonly reported behavioural response to perceived terrorism threat. Multivariate analyses showed that the factor combination of high perceived coping and higher concern was the most consistent predictor of terrorism preparedness behaviours and evacuation intentions, including increased vigilance (Adjusted Odd Ratios (AOR)=2.07, p=0.001) learning evacuation plans (AOR=1.61, p=0.05), establishing emergency contact plans (AOR=2.73, p<0.001), willingness to evacuate homes (AOR=2.20, p=0.039), and willingness to evacuate workplaces or public facilities (AOR=6.19, p=0.015) during potential future incidents. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that terrorism preparedness behaviours are strongly associated with perceived high coping but that this relationship is also mediated by personal concerns relating to this threat. Cognitive variables such as coping self-efficacy are increasingly targeted as part of natural hazard preparedness

  6. Principles for the monitoring and evaluation of wetland extent, condition and function in Australia.

    PubMed

    Saintilan, Neil; Imgraben, Sarah

    2012-01-01

    The monitoring of resource condition is receiving renewed attention across several levels of government in Australia. This interest is linked to substantial investment in environmental remediation and aquatic ecosystem restoration in particular. In this context, it is timely to consider principles which ought to guide the development and implementation of monitoring programmes for wetland ecosystems. A framework is established which places monitoring in the context of the strategic adaptive management of wetlands. This framework requires there has to be clear goals for the extent and condition of the resource, with these goals being defined within thresholds of acceptable variability. Qualitative and, where possible, quantitative conceptual models linking management interventions to management goals should be the basis of indicator selection and assessment. The intensity of sampling ought to be informed by pilot surveys of statistical power in relation to the thresholds of acceptable variability identified within the management plan.

  7. Long-term marine litter monitoring in the remote Great Australian Bight, South Australia.

    PubMed

    Edyvane, K S; Dalgetty, A; Hone, P W; Higham, J S; Wace, N M

    2004-06-01

    The Anxious Bay beach litter clearance is the longest running annual survey of ocean-based litter in Australia. It's remoteness from centres of human population and location (with respect to prevailing winds and currents) make it an ideal place for monitoring ocean or ship-based litter in Australia's southern oceans and particularly, the Great Australian Bight. Over the 1991-1999 period, a large but gradual decline in the amount of beach washed litter was recorded (with minor peaks recorded during the 1992 and 1994 surveys). Beach washed litter decreased by approximately 86%, from 344 kg recorded in 1991 (13.2 kg/km) to 49 kg in 1999 (i.e. 1.9 kg/km), reaching a maximum of 390 kg in 1992 (or 15 kg/km of beach). However, a sharp increase in litter was recorded in 2000 (i.e. 252 kg or 9.7 kg/km). This increase in litter yield in 2000 is probably due to stronger than average onshore surface flow (or Ekman Transport) in the western Eyre Peninsula and Bight region. Prior to the survey in 2000, the results appeared to indicate that ocean litter on Anxious Bay beach was beginning to level out at around 50-70 kg/year (i.e. 2-3 kg/km). As the beach surveys involve the assumption that the beach is completely cleared of litter, this may represent a baseline level for ocean-based litter in the region. The yields and type of litter collected from the annual survey indicates that the majority of litter washed ashore originates from commercial fishing activities within the Great Australian Bight. Most of the fishing-related litter was directly sourced to the Southern Rock Lobster Fishery (i.e. bait buckets, baskets, pots), the Great Australian Bight Trawl Fishery (i.e. codends, trawl nets) and the Southern Shark Fishery (i.e. monofilament gillnets and longlines). Between 1994 and 1999, large reductions were observed in the amount of bait straps (77% reduction), lobster bait baskets/buckets (86% reduction), nets/ropes (62% reduction) and floats/buoys (83% reduction). Significantly

  8. Predictions of summer diapause in the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor (Acari: Penthaleidae), in Australia.

    PubMed

    Ridsdill-Smith, James; Pavri, Celia; De Boer, Egbert; Kriticos, Darren

    2005-06-01

    A prediction for the onset of a summer diapause in the eggs of the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor, was developed for Australia. In this species diapause eggs pass the summer in the cadavers of adult female mites. Adult female mites were collected for several weeks from pastures in spring at 18 sites in south-western Australia and dissected to determine the timing of the production of diapause eggs. Some sites were sampled for several years between 1990 and 1997. A model was developed to predict the time for onset of diapause. The week at which 90% of eggs were in diapause was predicted best by daylength (80.1% of the variability), then by duration of the long-term plant growing season (10.4%, of variability), leaving 9.5% due to other factors. A single chemical spray in spring 2 weeks before the production of 90% diapause eggs resulted in 99% fewer mites present in autumn 7-8 months later at three sites. The timing of the spring spray was the factor leading to successful control. This model was tested at 17 sites across the whole geographical distribution of the redlegged earth mite in Australia between 1998 and 2001. The observed week of 90% diapause was within 1 week of the predicted week on 81% of occasions, and 2 weeks earlier on 15% of occasions. A database was created for the predicted date of onset of 90% diapause for the whole distribution of the redlegged earth mite in southern Australia on a 10 km(2) grid. Australian farmers are using this for timing a spring spray to control mites in the following autumn.

  9. Predictive Processing, Source Monitoring, and Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Griffin, Juliet D.; Fletcher, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive and useful understanding of psychosis will require models that link multiple levels of explanation: the neurobiological, the cognitive, the subjective, the social. Until we can bridge several explanatory gaps, it is difficult to envisage understanding how neurobiological perturbations could manifest in bizarre beliefs or hallucinations, nor how trauma or social adversity could perturb lower-level brain processes. We propose that the predictive processing framework has much to offer in this respect. We show how it may underpin and complement source monitoring theories of delusions and hallucinations and how it easily extends, when considered in terms of a dynamic and hierarchical system, to provide a compelling model of several key clinical features of psychosis. Crucially, we see little conflict between source monitoring theories and predictive coding. The former acts as a higher level description of a set of capacities, and the latter aims to provide a deeper account of how these and other capacities may emerge. PMID:28375719

  10. Monitoring and adaptive resistance management in Australia for Bt-cotton: current status and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Downes, Sharon; Mahon, Rod; Olsen, Karen

    2007-07-01

    In the mid-1990 s the Australian Cotton industry adopted an insect-resistant variety of cotton (Ingard) which expresses the Bt toxin Cry1Ac that is specific to a group of insects including the target Helicoverpa armigera. A conservative resistance management plan (RMP), that restricted the area planted to Ingard, was implemented to preserve the efficacy of Cry1Ac until two-gene transgenic cotton was available. In 2004/05 Bollgard II replaced Ingard as the transgenic cotton available in Australia. It improves on Ingard by incorporating an additional insecticidal protein (Cry2Ab). If an appropriate refuge is grown, there is no restriction on the area planted to Bollgard II. In 2004/05 and 2005/06 the Bollgard II acreage represented approximately 80 of the total area planted to cotton in Australia. The sensitivity of field-collected populations of H. armigera to Bt products was assayed before and subsequent to the widespread deployment of Ingard cotton. In 2002 screens against Cry2Ab were developed in preparation for replacement of Ingard with Bollgard II. There have been no reported field failures of Bollgard II due to resistance. However, while alleles that confer resistance to H. armigera in the field are rare for Cry1Ac, they are surprisingly common for Cry2Ab. We present an overview of the current approach adopted in Australia to monitor and adaptively manage resistance to Bt-cotton in field populations of H. armigera and discuss the implications of our findings to date. We also highlight future challenges for resistance management in Australia, many of which extend to other Bt-crop and pest systems.

  11. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

    PubMed

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.

  12. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system

    PubMed Central

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe. PMID:25977759

  13. Predicting adolescent breakfast consumption in the UK and Australia using an extended theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Mullan, Barbara; Wong, Cara; Kothe, Emily

    2013-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) with the addition of risk awareness could predict breakfast consumption in a sample of adolescents from the UK and Australia. It was hypothesised that the TPB variables of attitudes, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control (PBC) would significantly predict intentions, and that inclusion of risk perception would increase the proportion of variance explained. Secondly it was hypothesised that intention and PBC would predict behaviour. Participants were recruited from secondary schools in Australia and the UK. A total of 613 participants completed the study (448 females, 165 males; mean=14years ±1.1). The TPB predicted 42.2% of the variance in intentions to eat breakfast. All variables significantly predicted intention with PBC as the strongest component. The addition of risk made a small but significant contribution to the prediction of intention. Together intention and PBC predicted 57.8% of the variance in breakfast consumption. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

  15. Integrated geodetic monitoring of subsidence due to groundwater abstraction in the Perth Basin, Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, A. L.; Filmer, M. S.; Featherstone, W. E.; Pigois, J. P.; Lyon, T.

    2016-12-01

    Small-magnitude subsidence due to groundwater abstraction was first observed in Perth, Western Australia, in the 2000s. Ongoing monitoring of ground deformation is required to avoid infrastructure damage, increased risk of seawater inundation and compromised integrity of geodetic benchmarks (e.g. tide-gauges). Subsidence measurements will also be used to provide constraints on aquifer storage properties, which is of significance to groundwater-resource management and proposed managed aquifer recharge. To these ends, a geodetic monitoring system in the Perth Basin has been established incorporating repeat levelling, continuous GPS and >20 years of InSAR data, including four years of TerraSAR-X (2012 to 2016), plus the first Sentinel-1A interferograms over Western Australia. The magnitude of subsidence ( 2-5 mm/yr) is at the limit detectable with InSAR, but through integration with high-precision repeat levelling, groundwater level records and geological information, we are able to constrain and interpret the spatial and temporal characteristics of the deformation field. InSAR datasets reveal a narrow subsiding coastal strip proximal to abstraction bores that came online since the early 2000s. Subsidence is also identified at the eastern margin of the Perth Basin, where seasonal variations of 10 mm measured with repeat-levelling are attributed to expansion and contraction of shallow clays. Elsewhere in the basin, high-resolution time-series from TerraSAR-X record non-linear, often seasonal vertical land motion, which correlates with changes in water levels at artesian monitoring bores. SAR coverage of the Perth Basin is ongoing and is now complemented by corner reflectors co-located with continuous GPS to tie measurements to a consistent reference frame. The ongoing collection of these and other geodetic data ensures that we are well placed to measure and monitor vertical land motion across the Perth Basin, including any effects of proposed managed aquifer recharge.

  16. Monitoring the control of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases in Australia: towards a national HPV surveillance strategy.

    PubMed

    Brotherton, Julia M L; Kaldor, John M; Garland, Suzanne M

    2010-09-01

    This paper describes a possible multifaceted approach to human papillomavirus (HPV) related surveillance in Australia following implementation of a national HPV vaccination program. We describe eight main components: monitoring of vaccine coverage, vaccine safety, type-specific HPV infection surveillance, cervical cytology (Pap screening) coverage and screen detected lesion prevalence, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, genital wart incidence, incidence of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, and knowledge, attitudes and beliefs about HPV and HPV vaccination. Australia is well placed to monitor the impact of its HPV vaccination program as well as to measure vaccine effectiveness with existing HPV vaccines, cervical screening and cancer registries.

  17. Effect based monitoring of seasonal ambient air exposures in Australia sampled by PUF passive air samplers

    PubMed Central

    Kennedy, Karen; Macova, Miroslava; Bartkow, Michael E.; Hawker, Darryl W.; Zhao, Bin; Denison, Michael S.; Mueller, Jochen F.

    2011-01-01

    There has been relatively little bioanalytical effect based monitoring conducted using samples derived from polyurethane foam (PUF) passive air samplers. Combining these techniques may provide a more convenient and cost effective means of monitoring the potential for biological effects resulting from exposure to complex mixtures in a range of scenarios. Seasonal polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels were monitored at sites around Australia using direct chemical analysis. In addition, both indirect acting genotoxicity (umuC assay) and aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) activity (chemically activated fluorescent gene expression [CAFLUX assay]), which are effects potentially relevant to subsequent carcinogenesis for these compounds, were measured. The levels of PAHs as well as genotoxicity and AhR activity were all higher in winter compared to summer and for sites in urban capital cities compared to other locations. Statistically significant relationships were found between the levels of PAHs and both genotoxicity and AhR activity. The dominant contributors to the total AhR activity, were found to be for compounds which are not resistant to H2SO4/silica gel treatment and were relatively rapidly metabolised that is consistent with a PAH type response. Relative potency estimates for individual PAHs determined for the first time on the CAFLUX assay were used to estimate the proportion of total AhR activity (≤ 3.0%) accounted by PAHs monitored. Observed responses are thus largely due to non-quantified AhR active compounds. PMID:21552507

  18. Monitoring temporal changes in use of two cathinones in a large urban catchment in Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Thai, Phong K; Lai, Foon Yin; Edirisinghe, Methsiri; Hall, Wayne; Bruno, Raimondo; O'Brien, Jake W; Prichard, Jeremy; Kirkbride, K Paul; Mueller, Jochen F

    2016-03-01

    Wastewater analysis was used to examine prevalence and temporal trends in the use of two cathinones, methylone and mephedrone, in an urban population (>200,000 people) in South East Queensland, Australia. Wastewater samples were collected from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant that serviced the catchment from 2011 to 2013. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to measure mephedrone and methylone in wastewater sample using direct injection mode. Mephedrone was not detected in any samples while methylone was detected in 45% of the samples. Daily mass loads of methylone were normalized to the population and used to evaluate methylone use in the catchment. Methylone mass loads peaked in 2012 but there was no clear temporal trend over the monitoring period. The prevalence of methylone use in the catchment was associated with the use of MDMA, the more popular analogue of methylone, as indicated by other complementary sources. Methylone use was stable in the study catchment during the monitoring period whereas mephedrone use has been declining after its peak in 2010. More research is needed on the pharmacokinetics of emerging illicit drugs to improve the applicability of wastewater analysis in monitoring their use in the population.

  19. Dengue fever and El Nino/Southern Oscillation in Queensland, Australia: a time series predictive model.

    PubMed

    Hu, Wenbiao; Clements, Archie; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

    2010-05-01

    It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3-12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (beta=-0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

  20. Predicting avian distributions to evaluate spatiotemporal overlap with locust control operations in eastern Australia.

    PubMed

    Szabo, Judit K; Davy, Pamela J; Hooper, Michael J; Astheimer, Lee B

    2009-12-01

    Locusts and grasshoppers cause considerable economic damage to agriculture worldwide. The Australian Plague Locust Commission uses multiple pesticides to control locusts in eastern Australia. Avian exposure to agricultural pesticides is of conservation concern, especially in the case of rare and threatened species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of pesticide exposure of native avian species during operational locust control based on knowledge of species occurrence in areas and times of application. Using presence-absence data provided by the Birds Australia Atlas for 1998 to 2002, we developed a series of generalized linear models to predict avian occurrences on a monthly basis in 0.5 degrees grid cells for 280 species over 2 million km2 in eastern Australia. We constructed species-specific models relating occupancy patterns to survey date and location, rainfall, and derived habitat preference. Model complexity depended on the number of observations available. Model output was the probability of occurrence for each species at times and locations of past locust control operations within the 5-year study period. Given the high spatiotemporal variability of locust control events, the variability in predicted bird species presence was high, with 108 of the total 280 species being included at least once in the top 20 predicted species for individual space-time events. The models were evaluated using field surveys collected between 2000 and 2005, at sites with and without locust outbreaks. Model strength varied among species. Some species were under- or over-predicted as times and locations of interest typically did not correspond to those in the prediction data set and certain species were likely attracted to locusts as a food source. Field surveys demonstrated the utility of the spatially explicit species lists derived from the models but also identified the presence of a number of previously unanticipated species. These results also emphasize

  1. A future geodetic monitoring system for vertical land motion in the Perth basin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filmer, Mick; Featherstone, Will; Morgan, Linda; Schenk, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    SAR imagery. The InSAR component is necessary to avoid reliance on discrete monitoring stations and to provide larger scale mapping of the subsidence. As the framework for an ongoing monitoring programme, images are being acquired from the German Aerospace Centre's (DLR's) TerraSAR-X satellite mission under a collaborative science project among Geoscience Australia, Curtin University of Technology, Landgate and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. This programme initially covers ~13 months (up to 30 images) and will provide sufficient data to lay the foundation for ongoing monitoring. This monitoring programme will be used to determine linear and non-linear VLM in Perth at time scales ranging from seasonal to long term over multiple years.

  2. Electromagnetic monitoring of stimulated hot dry rock systems - modelling and examples from South Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiel, S.; Peacock, J.; Heinson, G. S.; Reid, P.

    2011-12-01

    Realization of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) prescribes the need for novel technology to monitor the created reservoir. Conventionally, micro-earthquake arrays are used to monitor seismic events associated with the postulated pressure front of the injected fluid. We propose the additional use of the magnetotelluric (MT) technique which is directly sensitive to elevated electrical conductivity allowing mapping the conductive injected fluid in the subsurface. MT is a passive electromagnetic method that characterizes geoelectric structure by measuring the Earth's response to natural magnetic fields. Measuring the MT response before, during and after fluids are injected into the reservoir provides a tool to delineate reservoir boundaries at depth. This is important as electrical conductivity can change by a few orders of magnitude making a conductive fluid in resistive host rock a viable MT target at depth. Three-dimensional MT forward modelling illustrates the dependence of reservoir size and depth as well as the dampening effect of a conductive overburden, such as a sedimentary basin. Forward modelling suggests changes in the MT response of a proposed reservoir at 3.5km depth will be on the order of a few percent, advising an accurate and precise prior data set is collected. A test case from Paralana, South Australia will be presented illustrating results of MT responses before and after fluids are injected as well as time-lapse transfer function variability during the injection.

  3. Prescribing databases can be used to monitor trends in opioid analgesic prescribing in Australia.

    PubMed

    Hollingworth, Samantha A; Symons, Martyn; Khatun, Mohsina; Loveday, Bill; Ballantyne, Sue; Hall, Wayne D; Najman, Jake M

    2013-04-01

    There has been increased use of prescription opioid analgesics in Australia in the past 20 years with increasing evidence of related problems. A number of data sources collect information about the dispensed prescribing for opioid medications, but little is known about the extent to which these data sources agree on levels of opioid prescribing. In Queensland, all opioid prescriptions (S8 prescriptions) dispensed by community pharmacies must be submitted to the Drugs of Dependence Unit (DDU). This potentially comprises a 'gold standard' against which other data sources may be judged. There are two national data sources: the Pharmaceutical Benefits Schedule (PBS) for all medications subsidised by government; and an annual national survey of representative pharmacies, which assesses non-subsidised opioid prescribing. We examined the agreement between these data sources. The three data sources provided consistent estimates of use over time. The correlations between different data sources were high for most opioid analgesics. There was a substantial (60%) increase in the dispensed use of opioid analgesics and a 180% increase in the dispensed use of oxycodone over the period 2002-2009. Tramadol was the most used opioid-like medication. Since 2002 different data sources reveal similar trends, namely a substantial increase in the prescribing of opioid medications. With few exceptions, the conclusions derived from using any of these data sources were similar. Improved access to PBS data for relevant stakeholders could provide an efficient and cost-effective way to monitor use of prescription opioid analgesics. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

  4. Thermal sensitivity of Aedes aegypti from Australia: empirical data and prediction of effects on distribution.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Kelly; Hoffmann, Ary A; Johnson, Petrina; Ritchie, Scott; Kearney, Michael R

    2011-07-01

    An understanding of physiological sensitivity to temperature and its variability is important for predicting habitat suitability for disease vectors under different climatic regimes. In this study, we characterized the thermal sensitivity of larval developmental rates and survival in several Australian mainland populations of the dengue virus vector Aedes aegypti. Males developed more rapidly than females, but there were no differences among populations for development time or survival despite previously demonstrated genetic differentiation for neutral markers. Optimal development and survival temperatures were 37 degrees C and 25 degrees C, respectively. The values for maximal development and survival were similar to standard functions used in the container inhabiting simulation (CIMSIM) model for predicting population dynamics ofAe. aegypti populations, but CIMSIM assumed a lower optimal temperature. Heat stress experiments indicated that larvae could withstand water temperatures up to 44 degrees C regardless of the rate at which temperature was increased. Results from development time measured under constant temperatures could predict development time under fluctuating conditions, whereas CIMSIM predicted faster rates of development. This difference acts to reduce the predicted potential number of generations of Ae. aegypti per year in Australia, although it does not influence its predicted distribution, which depends critically on the nature of the aquatic breeding sites.

  5. A tunnel study to validate motor vehicle emission prediction software in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smit, R.; Kingston, P.; Wainwright, D. H.; Tooker, R.

    2017-02-01

    A tunnel emissions study was conducted to (partially) validate the Australian vehicle emissions software COPERT Australia and PIARC emission factors. The in-tunnel fleet mix differs substantially from the average on-road fleet, leading to lower emissions by a factor of about 2. Simulation with the PΔP software found that in-tunnel air-flow compensates to a large extent for road gradient impacts on NOx emissions. PIARC emission factors are conservative and exhibit the largest prediction errors, except for one very good agreement for LDV NOx. COPERT Australia is generally accurate at fleet level for CO, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10, when compared with other international studies, and consistently underestimates emissions by 7%-37%, depending on the pollutant. Possible contributing factors are under-representation of high/excessive emitting vehicles, inaccurate mileage correction factors, and lack of empirical emissions data for Australian diesel cars. The study results demonstrate a large uncertainty in speciated VOC and PAH emission factors.

  6. Monthly prediction of air temperature in Australia and New Zealand with machine learning algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Deo, R. C.; Carro-Calvo, L.; Saavedra-Moreno, B.

    2016-07-01

    Long-term air temperature prediction is of major importance in a large number of applications, including climate-related studies, energy, agricultural, or medical. This paper examines the performance of two Machine Learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP)) in a problem of monthly mean air temperature prediction, from the previous measured values in observational stations of Australia and New Zealand, and climate indices of importance in the region. The performance of the two considered algorithms is discussed in the paper and compared to alternative approaches. The results indicate that the SVR algorithm is able to obtain the best prediction performance among all the algorithms compared in the paper. Moreover, the results obtained have shown that the mean absolute error made by the two algorithms considered is significantly larger for the last 20 years than in the previous decades, in what can be interpreted as a change in the relationship among the prediction variables involved in the training of the algorithms.

  7. Radon monitoring and hazard prediction in Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elio, Javier; Crowley, Quentin; Scanlon, Ray; Hodgson, Jim; Cooper, Mark; Long, Stephanie

    2016-04-01

    Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas which forms as a decay product from uranium. It is the largest source of natural ionizing radiation affecting the global population. When radon is inhaled, its short-lived decay products can interact with lung tissue leading to DNA damage and development of lung cancer. Ireland has among the highest levels of radon in Europe and eighth highest of an OECD survey of 29 countries. Every year some two hundred and fifty cases of lung cancer in Ireland are linked to radon exposure. This new research project will build upon previous efforts of radon monitoring in Ireland to construct a high-resolution radon hazard map. This will be achieved using recently available high-resolution airborne gamma-ray spectrometry (radiometric) and soil geochemistry data (http://www.tellus.ie/), indoor radon concentrations (http://www.epa.ie/radiation), and new direct measurement of soil radon. In this regard, legacy indoor radon concentrations will be correlated with soil U and Th concentrations and other geogenic data. This is a new approach since the vast majority of countries with a national radon monitoring programme rely on indoor radon measurements, or have a spatially limited dataset of soil radon measurements. Careful attention will be given to areas where an indicative high radon hazard based on geogenic factors does not match high indoor radon concentrations. Where such areas exist, it may imply that some parameter(s) in the predictive model does not match that of the environment. These areas will be subjected to measurement of radon soil gas using a combination of time averaged (passive) and time dependant (active) measurements in order to better understand factors affecting production, transport and accumulation of radon in the natural environment. Such mapping of radon-prone areas will ultimately help to inform when prevention and remediation measures are necessary, reducing the radon exposure of the population. Therefore, given

  8. Monitoring Contrasting Land Management in the Savanna Landscapes of Northern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franklin, Donald C.; Petty, Aaron M.; Williamson, Grant J.; Brook, Barry W.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

    2008-04-01

    We compared measures of ecosystem state across six adjacent land-tenure groups in the intact tropical savanna landscapes of northern Australia. Tenure groups include two managed by Aboriginal owners, two national parks, a cluster of pastoral leases, and a military training area. This information is of relevance to the debate about the role of indigenous lands in the Australian conservation estate. The timing and frequency of fire was determined by satellite imagery; the biomass and composition of the herb-layer and the abundance of large feral herbivores by field surveys; and weediness by analysis of a Herbarium database. European tenures varied greatly in fire frequencies but were consistently burnt earlier in the dry season than the two Aboriginal tenures, the latter having intermediate fire frequencies. Weeds were more frequent in the European tenures, whilst feral animals were most abundant in the Aboriginal tenures. This variation strongly implies a signature of current management and/or recent environmental history. We identify indices suitable for monitoring of management outcomes in an extensive and sparsely populated landscape. Aboriginal land offers a unique opportunity for the conservation of biodiversity through the maintenance of traditional fire regimes. However, without financial support, traditional practices may prove unsustainable both economically and because exotic weeds and feral animals will alter fire regimes. An additional return on investment in Aboriginal land management is likely to be improved livelihoods and health outcomes for these disadvantaged communities.

  9. Monitoring contrasting land management in the savanna landscapes of northern Australia.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Donald C; Petty, Aaron M; Williamson, Grant J; Brook, Barry W; Bowman, David M J S

    2008-04-01

    We compared measures of ecosystem state across six adjacent land-tenure groups in the intact tropical savanna landscapes of northern Australia. Tenure groups include two managed by Aboriginal owners, two national parks, a cluster of pastoral leases, and a military training area. This information is of relevance to the debate about the role of indigenous lands in the Australian conservation estate. The timing and frequency of fire was determined by satellite imagery; the biomass and composition of the herb-layer and the abundance of large feral herbivores by field surveys; and weediness by analysis of a Herbarium database. European tenures varied greatly in fire frequencies but were consistently burnt earlier in the dry season than the two Aboriginal tenures, the latter having intermediate fire frequencies. Weeds were more frequent in the European tenures, whilst feral animals were most abundant in the Aboriginal tenures. This variation strongly implies a signature of current management and/or recent environmental history. We identify indices suitable for monitoring of management outcomes in an extensive and sparsely populated landscape. Aboriginal land offers a unique opportunity for the conservation of biodiversity through the maintenance of traditional fire regimes. However, without financial support, traditional practices may prove unsustainable both economically and because exotic weeds and feral animals will alter fire regimes. An additional return on investment in Aboriginal land management is likely to be improved livelihoods and health outcomes for these disadvantaged communities.

  10. A Sensitive Search for Predicted Methanol Maser Transitions with the Australia Telescope Compact Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chipman, A.; Ellingsen, S. P.; Sobolev, A. M.; Cragg, D. M.

    2016-11-01

    We have used the Australia Telescope Compact Array to search for a number of centimetre wavelength methanol transitions which are predicted to show weak maser emission towards star formation regions. Sensitive, high spatial, and spectral resolution observations towards four high-mass star formation regions which show emission in a large number of class II methanol maser transitions did not result in any detections. From these observations, we are able to place an upper limit of ≲ 1300 K on the brightness temperature of any emission from the 31A+-31A-, 17-2-18-3 E (vt = 1), 124-133 A-, 124-133 A+, and 41A+-41A- transitions of methanol in these sources on angular scales of 2 arcsec. This upper limit is consistent with current models for class II methanol masers in high-mass star formation regions and better constraints than those provided here will likely require observations with next-generation radio telescopes.

  11. Are High-Impact Species Predictable? An Analysis of Naturalised Grasses in Northern Australia

    PubMed Central

    van Klinken, Rieks D.; Panetta, F. Dane; Coutts, Shaun R.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of

  12. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations the CSIRO (Australia) monitoring program from aircraft 1972 - 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Beardsmore, D.J.; Pearman, G.I.

    1984-09-01

    Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations were measured in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Australia-New Zealand region and as far south as Antarctica for the period 1972-1981. The samples were collected from aircraft over a large range of latitudes and altitudes. The sampling program has been based on the cooperation of the Australia Department of Transport, Quantas Airways, Trans Australia Airlines, the United States, New Zealand and Australian Air Forces and occasional chartering of light aircraft for special purposes.

  13. Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Cook, David C.; Liu, Shuang; Edwards, Jacqueline; Villalta, Oscar N.; Aurambout, Jean-Philippe; Kriticos, Darren J.; Drenth, Andre; De Barro, Paul J.

    2012-01-01

    Benefit cost analysis is a tried and tested analytical framework that can clearly communicate likely net changes in producer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficult to predict policy benefits over time due to complex biophysical interactions between invasive species, their hosts, and the environment. In this paper, we demonstrate how a break-even style benefit cost analysis remains highly relevant to biosecurity decision-makers using the example of banana bunchy top virus, a plant pathogen targeted for eradication from banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of possible future incursion scenarios, we predict the exclusion benefits of the disease will avoid Aus$15.9-27.0 million in annual losses for the banana industry. For these exclusion benefits to be reduced to zero would require a bunchy top re-establishment event in commercial banana plantations three years in every four. Sensitivity analysis indicates that exclusion benefits can be greatly enhanced through improvements in disease surveillance and incursion response. PMID:22879960

  14. Evaluation of eight different methods to predict hillslope runoff rates for a grazing catchment in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fentie, B.; Yu, B.; Silburn, M. D.; Ciesiolka, C. A. A.

    2002-04-01

    Unlike the USLE/RUSLE models, which require only rainfall intensity data to quantify climatic effects on soil erosion, physically based erosion models require data on runoff rates as their input. However, runoff rate data are rarely measured in the field. This study evaluates eight models in terms of their performance in predicting peak ( Qp) and effective ( Qe) runoff rates required by erosion models. The eight models are: (1) a multiple regression model (MR), (2) a power function model (PF), (3) a scaling technique (ST), (4) a constant infiltration model (CI), (5) a constant runoff coefficient model (RC), (6) a spatially variable infiltration model (VI), (7) the CREAMS peak runoff rate equation ( Qp_CREAMS), and (8) an empirical peak runoff rate equation ( QP_SAL). Rainfall and runoff data from experimental plots in a grazing catchment in central Queensland (Australia) were used. A commonly used model efficiency statistic ( E) was used to compare the performance of these models. Models resulting in high E values are said to perform better than models resulting in low values of E. Hence, with E values of 0.85 and 0.81 in predicting Qp and Qe, respectively, the PF model ranked first. On the other hand, with an E value of -12.7, the Qp_CREAMS performed the worst in predicting peak runoff rates. On the basis of input data requirements and number of free parameters involved in each model, however, the VI model, with E values of 0.82 and 0.79 for Qp and Qe, respectively, is found to be the best choice when breakpoint rainfall is available for an event. If only peak rainfall intensity is available, the ST with E values of 0.80 and 0.63 for Qp and Qe, respectively, would be the best model to use to predict these two runoff rate characteristics for the site.

  15. Locust displacing winds in eastern Australia reassessed with observations from an insect monitoring radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Zhenhua; Drake, V. Alistair; Sidhu, Leesa; Taylor, John R.

    2017-07-01

    Based on previous investigations, adult Australian plague locusts are believed to migrate on warm nights (with evening temperatures >25 °C), provided daytime flight is suppressed by surface winds greater than the locusts' flight speed, which has been shown to be 3.1 m s-1. Moreover, adult locusts are believed to undertake briefer `dispersal' flights on nights with evening temperature >20 °C. To reassess the utility of these conditions for forecasting locust flight, contingency tests were conducted comparing the nights selected on these bases (predicted nights) for the months of November, January, and March and the nights when locust migration were detected with an insect monitoring radar (actual nights) over a 7-year period. In addition, the wind direction distributions and mean wind directions on all predicted nights and actual nights were compared. Observations at around 395 m above ground level (AGL), the height at which radar observations have shown that the greatest number of locusts fly, were used to determine the actual nights. Tests and comparisons were also made for a second height, 990 m AGL, as this was used in the previous investigation. Our analysis shows that the proposed criteria are successful from predicting migratory flight only in March, when the surface temperature is effective as a predicting factor. Surface wind speed has no predicting power. It is suggested that a strong daytime surface wind speed requirement should not be considered and other meteorological variables need to be added to the requirement of a warm surface temperature around dusk for the predictions to have much utility.

  16. Campaigns to Monitor Predicted Mesolensing Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Stefano, Rosanne; Lepine, S.; Matthews, J.

    2012-01-01

    When a nearby high-proper-motion star moves in front of a crowded stellar field, there is a high probability that it will lens one of the background stars. Lensing events can, in fact, be predicted. This makes it important to answer the question: when a lensing event is predicted, how best to plan an observing campaign to study the event and extract the parameters of the lens? How can we use such campaigns to discover planets or to compute the probability that the lens star has planets? We will discuss the specific example of the mesolens VB 10, which will have lensed a background star in December of 2011. Although the predicted low magnification and the presence of the Sun near the event location will have made conditions less than ideal for the study of this event, constraints on planets may have been derived by the time of the talk. Whatever the results,we will discuss what we learned by planning for this first-ever predicted mesolensing event. We will discuss the prospects for future predictions of individual events and of statistical predictions of multiple high-probability events.

  17. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  18. Development of a predictive model for ross river virus disease in Brisbane, Australia.

    PubMed

    Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Lindsay, Mike; Dale, Pat; McMichael, Anthony J; Mackenzie, John S; Tong, Shilu

    2004-08-01

    This paper describes the development of an empirical model to forecast epidemics of Ross River virus (RRV) disease using the multivariate seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) technique in Brisbane, Australia. We obtained computerized data on notified RRV disease cases, climate, high tide, and population sizes in Brisbane for the period 1985-2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two data sets: the data between January 1985 and December 2000 were used to construct a model, and those between January and December 2001 to validate it. The SARIMA models show that monthly precipitation (beta = 0.004, P = 0.031) was significantly associated with RRV transmission. However, there was no significant association between other climate variables (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and high tides) and RRV transmission. The predictive values in the model were generally consistent with actual values (root mean square percentage error = 0.94%). Therefore, this model may have applications as a decision supportive tool in disease control and risk-management planning programs.

  19. Time-lapse Geophysical Monitoring of the Subsurface Hydrology at Kings Park, Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adekoya, Tunde; McGrath, Gavan; Leopold, Matthias; Shragge, Jeffrey; Challis, Anthea; Stevens, Jason; Miller, Ben

    2015-04-01

    The increasing occurrence of drought stress throughout Southwestern Western Australia is postulated to have contributed to the decline of Banksia populations both in Kings Park, Perth, and in the Banksia woodlands in the greater Swan Coastal Plain region. To help quantify these assertions, there is an urgent need to better understand the base levels of soil moisture content - as well as seasonal variations thereof - in these geographical regions. We conducted time-lapse (TL) electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods on a monthly basis (May-August 2014). In addition, at each site we hand-augured test holes to a depth of 3-4 m and collected samples at 20-cm intervals to enable grain-size analysis, soil moisture content and water retention tests. PR2 capacitance probe measurements were also acquired when augering to enable a moisture content comparison study. The acquired TL ERT datasets were inverted using 2D EarthImager software and the temporal variations in resistivity were interpreted in terms of changes in moisture content. The TL ERT data reveal significant calendar variations in the spatial distribution of moisture content. The TL ERT inversions also detected isolated less resistive lithologies and the depth to groundwater. Processed TL GPR data were interpreted to show vertical variations in the vadose zone moisture content. The water content variations were consistent with the rainfall data. The grain-size distributions of the samples were analysed statistically. The apparent resistivity values from the analysed samples and observed volumetric water content are strongly correlated (R2=0.84) as may be expected from Archie's law. Soil moisture content analysis results including the PR2 probe measurements were plotted as a function of depth, the result shows vertical variations in moisture content with depth. The hydrological tests indicated the properties of the subsurface lithologies and confirm the responses of the

  20. Predicting Cereal Root Disease in Western Australia Using Soil DNA and Environmental Parameters.

    PubMed

    Poole, Grant J; Harries, Martin; Hüberli, D; Miyan, S; MacLeod, W J; Lawes, Roger; McKay, A

    2015-08-01

    Root diseases have long been prevalent in Australian grain-growing regions, and most management decisions to reduce the risk of yield loss need to be implemented before the crop is sown. The levels of pathogens that cause the major root diseases can be measured using DNA-based services such as PreDicta B. Although these pathogens are often studied individually, in the field they often occur as mixed populations and their combined effect on crop production is likely to vary across diverse cropping environments. A 3-year survey was conducted covering most cropping regions in Western Australia, utilizing PreDicta B to determine soilborne pathogen levels and visual assessments to score root health and incidence of individual crop root diseases caused by the major root pathogens, including Rhizoctonia solani (anastomosis group [AG]-8), Gaeumannomyces graminis var. tritici (take-all), Fusarium pseudograminearum, and Pratylenchus spp. (root-lesion nematodes) on wheat roots for 115, 50, and 94 fields during 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. A predictive model was developed for root health utilizing autumn and summer rainfall and soil temperature parameters. The model showed that pathogen DNA explained 16, 5, and 2% of the variation in root health whereas environmental parameters explained 22, 11, and 1% of the variation in 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. Results showed that R. solani AG-8 soil pathogen DNA, environmental soil temperature, and rainfall parameters explained most of the variation in the root health. This research shows that interactions between environment and pathogen levels before seeding can be utilized in predictive models to improve assessment of risk from root diseases to assist growers to plan more profitable cropping programs.

  1. Bell's palsy in children: Current treatment patterns in Australia and New Zealand. A PREDICT study.

    PubMed

    Babl, Franz E; Gardiner, Kaya K; Kochar, Amit; Wilson, Catherine L; George, Shane A; Zhang, Michael; Furyk, Jeremy; Thosar, Deepali; Cheek, John A; Krieser, David; Rao, Arjun S; Borland, Meredith L; Cheng, Nicholas; Phillips, Natalie T; Sinn, Kam K; Neutze, Jocelyn M; Dalziel, Stuart R

    2017-04-01

    The aetiology and clinical course of Bell's palsy may be different in paediatric and adult patients. There is no randomised placebo controlled trial (RCT) to show effectiveness of prednisolone for Bell's palsy in children. The aim of the study was to assess current practice in paediatric Bell's palsy in Australia and New Zealand Emergency Departments (ED) and determine the feasibility of conducting a multicentre RCT within the Paediatric Research in Emergency Departments International Collaborative (PREDICT). A retrospective analysis of ED medical records of children less than 18 years diagnosed with Bell's palsy between 1 January, 2012 and 31 December, 2013 was performed. Potential participants were identified from ED information systems using Bell's palsy related search terms. Repeat presentations during the same illness were excluded but relapses were not. Data on presentation, diagnosis and management were entered into an online data base (REDCap). Three hundred and twenty-three presentations were included from 14 PREDICT sites. Mean age at presentation was 9.0 (SD 5.0) years with 184 (57.0%) females. Most (238, 73.7%) presented to ED within 72 h of symptoms, 168 (52.0%) had seen a doctor prior. In ED, 218 (67.5%) were treated with steroids. Prednisolone was usually prescribed for 9 days at around 1 mg/kg/day, with tapering in 35.7%. Treatment of Bell's palsy in children presenting to Australasian EDs is varied. Prednisolone is commonly used in Australasian EDs, despite lack of high-level paediatric evidence. The study findings confirm the feasibility of an RCT of prednisolone for Bell's palsy in children. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  2. Monitoring and modelling walking track impacts in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Grant; Hawes, Martin; McPherson, Glen

    2004-07-01

    A program has been developed for monitoring the condition of unimproved walking tracks on a 1000-km track system in Western Tasmania, and it has been used as the basis of an eight-year study of track-impact development. The monitoring technique involves measuring track depth and two track-width indicators at permanently marked and widely dispersed sites, each site comprising ten transects located at 2-m intervals. Sites have been 'typed' on the basis of track slope, drainage and substrate characteristics, and the typing scheme has been tested and refined by assessing the relationship between type-usage groups and observed impacts. Analysis reveals that track depth and rates of erosion are strongly influenced by track type and to a lesser extent by usage, while track width is influenced mainly by usage and track bogginess. The time-invariant variable 'usage gradient' was introduced to compensate for the fact that usage levels on most walking tracks in Western Tasmania have varied over time. Data derived from multiple inspections at 2-3 year intervals since 1994 from over 250 sites have been used to derive impact/time curves for different type-'usage gradient' groups. Each of the impact variables can be approximated by the formula m = alphatBeta, where m is the expected value of the impact variable, t is chronological time, and alpha and Beta are constants characteristic of the impact variable and type-'usage gradient' group in question. The typing scheme and impact-development model have the potential to be used for systematically describing and predicting impacts over extensive systems of 'typed' tracks. The implications of these findings for the ongoing monitoring, sitting and management of walking tracks are discussed.

  3. Monitoring International Interest in Transnational Academic Mobility to Australia: A Mixed-Method Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, John L.

    2013-01-01

    In a recent study, the issue of transnational academic mobility of academic staff, considering moves to higher education institutions in Australia, was examined using a web-based portal that attracted interested parties from around the world with information about Australian academic career opportunities. Web analytics were used as the research…

  4. Sensitivity analysis of numerical weather prediction radiative schemes to forecast direct solar radiation over Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukkavilli, S. K.; Kay, M. J.; Taylor, R.; Prasad, A. A.; Troccoli, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) project requires forecasting timeframes which range from nowcasting to long-term forecasts (minutes to two years). As concentrating solar power (CSP) plant operators are one of the key stakeholders in the national energy market, research and development enhancements for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is a major subtask. This project involves comparing different radiative scheme codes to improve day ahead DNI forecasts on the national supercomputing infrastructure running mesoscale simulations on NOAA's Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model. ASEFS also requires aerosol data fusion for improving accurate representation of spatio-temporally variable atmospheric aerosols to reduce DNI bias error in clear sky conditions over southern Queensland & New South Wales where solar power is vulnerable to uncertainities from frequent aerosol radiative events such as bush fires and desert dust. Initial results from thirteen years of Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) deseasonalised DNI and MODIS NASA-Terra aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies demonstrated strong negative correlations in north and southeast Australia along with strong variability in AOD (~0.03-0.05). Radiative transfer schemes, DNI and AOD anomaly correlations will be discussed for the population and transmission grid centric regions where current and planned CSP plants dispatch electricity to capture peak prices in the market. Aerosol and solar irradiance datasets include satellite and ground based assimilations from the national BOM, regional aerosol researchers and agencies. The presentation will provide an overview of this ASEFS project task on WRF and results to date. The overall goal of this ASEFS subtask is to develop a hybrid numerical weather prediction (NWP) and statistical/machine learning multi-model ensemble strategy that meets future operational requirements of CSP plant operators.

  5. Epsilon Aur monitoring during predicted pulsation phase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waagen, Elizabeth O.; Templeton, Matthew R.

    2014-09-01

    Dr. Robert Stencel (University of Denver Astronomy Program) has requested that AAVSO observers monitor epsilon Aurigae from now through the end of the observing season. "Studies of the long-term, out-of-eclipse photometry of this enigmatic binary suggest that intervals of coherent pulsation occur at roughly 1/3 of the 27.1-year orbital period. Kloppenborg, et al. noted that stable variation patterns develop at 3,200-day intervals' implying that 'the next span of dates when such events might happen are circa JD ~2457000 (2014 December)'. "These out-of-eclipse light variations often have amplitudes of ~0.1 magnitude in U, and ~0.05 in V, with characteristic timescales of 60-100 days. The AAVSO light curve data to the present may indicate that this coherent phenomenon has begun, but we encourage renewed efforts by observers...to help deduce whether these events are internal to the F star, or externally-driven by tidal interaction with the companion star." Nightly observations or one observation every few days (CCD/PEP/DSLR, VUBR (amplitude too small for visual)) are requested. Finder charts with sequence may be created using the AAVSO Variable Star Plotter (http://www.aavso.org/vsp). Observations should be submitted to the AAVSO International Database. Epsilon Aur was the subject of major international campaigns and the AAVSO's Citizen Sky project as it went through its 27.1-year eclipse in 2009-2011. Over 700 observers worldwide submitted over 20,000 multicolor observations to the AAVSO International Database for this project. Much information on eps Aur is available from the AAVSO, including material on the Citizen Sky website (http://www.aavso.org/epsilon-aurigae and http://www.citizensky.org/content/star-our-project). The Journal of the AAVSO, Volume 40, No. 2 (2012) was devoted to discussion of and research results from this event. See full Alert Notice for more details and observations.

  6. Laboratory in complicated appendicitis prediction and predictive value of monitoring.

    PubMed

    Aydin, O U; Soylu, L; Dandin, O; Uysal Aydin, E; Karademir, S

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the study was that monitoring, which is used in diagnosis of acute appendicitis, and laboratory values, were evaluated for verifying diagnosis of complicated appendicitis and these parameters revealed cut-off values in complicated acute/non-complicated appendicitis. 195 patients, who had had an operation for acute appendicitis between January 2012 and March 2015 and who were proved to have acute complicated/non-complicated appendicitis from the results of histopathology consideration, were included in this study. Patients' age, preoperative serum, WBC, CRP, NLR and BT with USG results were evaluated.    RESULTS: Among the groups, there were no meaningful differences in the sense of age. Meaningful difference was obtained in between (p > 0.05), WBC, NLR, CRP and appendix diameter values.Serum in WBC >13800 (AUC = 0.614, p = 0.006, %95 GA: 0.541-0.682), in NLR > 4.87 (AUC = 0.641, p = 0.001, %95 GA: 0.569-0.708), in CRP > 5.98 (AUC = 0.651, p 11 mm (AUC = 0.630, p = 0.002, %95 GA: 0.558-0.698) values were obtained. The values that were obtained, were confirmed to be descriptive in analysis of complicated appendicitis and non-complicated appendicitis.According to the obtained cut-off values, serum WBC, diameter of appendicitis, NLR and CRP values', (OR) ratios were calculated for complicated appendicitis by being classified (odds ratio respectively; 3.103 (1.713-5.621), 2.765 (1.496-5.109), 3.025 (1.665-5.494), 2.313 (1.295-4.130)). It is important that treatment options are evaluated to be able to discriminate complicated appendicitis fast and with a high accuracy. In the case that serum WBC is higher than 13800. CRP is higher than 5.98, NLR is higher than 4.87 and appendicitis diameter is longer than 11mm, inflammation of appendicitis is complex with gangrene, perforation and abscess and it emphasizes the suggestion of surgical treatment option to patients (Tab. 4, Fig. 1, Ref. 28).

  7. Diversity "down under": monogeneans in the Antipodes (Australia) with a prediction of monogenean biodiversity worldwide.

    PubMed

    Whittington, I D

    1998-10-01

    There are approximately 25,000 species of fishes known in the world. The Monogenea are believed to be among the most host-specific of parasites and if each species of fish is host to a different species of monogenean, there could be almost 25,000 monogenean species on Earth. Currently, I estimate that between 3000 and 4000 of these are described. Australia has a rich marine fish fauna with approximately 3500 species of teleosts. If the same formula of one monogenean species per host fish species is applied, Australia marine fishes could host potentially 3500 species of monogeneans. The first monogenean species described from Australia was Encotyllabe pagrosomi MacCallum, 1917 and approximately 300 more species have since been described from the continent. Even in a region of Australia such as Heron Island on the Great Barrier Reef that has been a focus of sustained research on these parasites, only about 85 species are described from 40 of the most common, easily-caught species of fish. Reasons are discussed for the relatively small numbers of monogenean species described so far from Australia. Endemicity is difficult to judge, but only one is certain: Concinnocotyla australensis (Polystomatidae) from Neoceratodus forsteri (Dipnoi). Despite reductions in research funding, the value of parasite taxonomy must not be underestimated, particularly in regions of the world that have a rich diversity of potential hosts.

  8. The Murrumbidgee Monitoring Network: Supporting CEOP, GEWEX and Hydrological Research in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellett, K. M.; Western, A. W.; Walker, J. P.; Sirawardena, L.; Young, R. I.; Smith, A. B.; Flint, A. L.; Summerell, G.

    2006-12-01

    In 2001 a network of 18 soil moisture monitoring sites were installed across the 80,000 square km Murrumbidgee River catchment in Australia with the aim of evaluating the land surface component of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational weather forecasting model. Since that time the Murrumbidgee Monitoring Network (MMN) has evolved to include 46 sites for continuous measurement of root-zone soil moisture, soil temperature and precipitation, as well as observations of deep soil moisture and ground water variability. Much of these data will soon be incorporated into the World Climate Research Programme's Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) database (www.ceop.net) marking a substantial new contribution from the Australian continent. This paper provides an overview of the MMN and presents current results from applications in a number of regional-scale research projects including the Murray-Darling Basin GEWEX study and the National Airborne Field Experiment 2006 (NAFE'06) aimed at improving the retrieval of soil moisture and vegetation parameters from airborne and satellite platforms. The MMN also plays an integral role in the HYDROGRACE project with the objectives of (1) providing the first in-situ based validation of terrestrial water storage observations from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission and (2) improving regional-scale model simulations through data assimilation of GRACE observations. The MMN is part of the broader OzNet hydrological monitoring network throughout eastern Australia. Details on OzNet and the projects mentioned above are provided at www.oznet.unimelb.edu.au.

  9. Rainfall and sentinel chicken seroconversions predict human cases of Murray Valley encephalitis in the north of Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Selvey, Linda A; Johansen, Cheryl A; Broom, Annette K; Antão, Catarina; Lindsay, Michael D; Mackenzie, John S; Smith, David W

    2014-12-10

    Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a flavivirus that occurs in Australia and New Guinea. While clinical cases are uncommon, MVEV can cause severe encephalitis with high mortality. Sentinel chicken surveillance is used at many sites around Australia to provide an early warning system for risk of human infection in areas that have low population density and geographical remoteness. MVEV in Western Australia occurs in areas of low population density and geographical remoteness, resulting in logistical challenges with surveillance systems and few human cases. While epidemiological data has suggested an association between rainfall and MVEV activity in outbreak years, it has not been quantified, and the association between rainfall and sporadic cases is less clear. In this study we analysed 22 years of sentinel chicken and human case data from Western Australia in order to evaluate the effectiveness of sentinel chicken surveillance for MVEV and assess the association between rainfall and MVEV activity. Sentinel chicken seroconversion, human case and rainfall data from the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of Western Australia from 1990 to 2011 were analysed using negative binomial regression. Sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases were used as dependent variables in the model. The model was then tested against sentinel chicken and rainfall data from 2012 and 2013. Sentinel chicken seroconversion preceded all human cases except two in March 1993. Rainfall in the prior three months was significantly associated with both sentinel chicken seroconversion and human cases across the regions of interest. Sentinel chicken seroconversion was also predictive of human cases in the models. The model predicted sentinel chicken seroconversion in the Kimberley but not in the Pilbara, where seroconversions early in 2012 were not predicted. The latter may be due to localised MVEV activity in isolated foci at dams, which do not reflect broader virus activity in the region

  10. Changes in monthly unemployment rates may predict changes in the number of psychiatric presentations to emergency services in South Australia.

    PubMed

    Bidargaddi, Niranjan; Bastiampillai, Tarun; Schrader, Geoffrey; Adams, Robert; Piantadosi, Cynthia; Strobel, Jörg; Tucker, Graeme; Allison, Stephen

    2015-07-24

    To determine the extent to which variations in monthly Mental Health Emergency Department (MHED) presentations in South Australian Public Hospitals are associated with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) monthly unemployment rates. Times series modelling of relationships between monthly MHED presentations to South Australian Public Hospitals derived from the Integrated South Australian Activity Collection (ISAAC) data base and the ABS monthly unemployment rates in South Australia between January 2004-June 2011. Time series modelling using monthly unemployment rates from ABS as a predictor variable explains 69% of the variation in monthly MHED presentations across public hospitals in South Australia. Thirty-two percent of the variation in current month's male MHED presentations can be predicted by using the 2 months' prior male unemployment rate. Over 63% of the variation in monthly female MHED presentations can be predicted by either male or female prior monthly unemployment rates. The findings of this study highlight that even with the relatively favourable economic conditions, small shifts in monthly unemployment rates can predict variations in monthly MHED presentations, particularly for women. Monthly ABS unemployment rates may be a useful metric for predicting demand for emergency mental health services.

  11. Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

  12. ATLAS trigger operations: Monitoring with ``Xmon'' rate prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aukerman, Andrew; Hong, Tae Min

    2017-01-01

    We present the operations and online monitoring with the ``Xmon'' rate prediction system for the trigger system at the ATLAS Experiment. A two-level trigger system reduces the LHC's bunch-crossing rate, 40 MHz at design capacity, to an average recording rate of about 1 kHz, while maintaining a high efficiency of selecting events of interest. The Xmon system uses the luminosity value to predict trigger rates that are, in turn, compared with incoming rates. The predictions rely on past runs to parameterize the luminosity dependency of the event rate for a trigger algorithm. Some examples are given to illustrate the performance of the tool during recent operations.

  13. PREDICT prioritisation study: establishing the research priorities of paediatric emergency medicine physicians in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Deane, Heather Carol; Wilson, Catherine L; Babl, Franz E; Dalziel, Stuart R; Cheek, John Alexander; Craig, Simon S; Oakley, Ed; Borland, Meredith; Cheng, Nicholas G; Zhang, Michael; Cotterell, Elizabeth; Schuster, Tibor; Krieser, David

    2017-08-30

    The Paediatric Research in Emergency Departments International Collaborative (PREDICT) performs multicentre research in Australia and New Zealand. Research priorities are difficult to determine, often relying on individual interests or prior work. To identify the research priorities of paediatric emergency medicine (PEM) specialists working in Australia and New Zealand. Online surveys were administered in a two-stage, modified Delphi study. Eligible participants were PEM specialists (consultants and senior advanced trainees in PEM from 14 PREDICT sites). Participants submitted up to 3 of their most important research questions (survey 1). Responses were collated and refined, then a shortlist of refined questions was returned to participants for prioritisation (survey 2). A further prioritisation exercise was carried out at a PREDICT meeting using the Hanlon Process of Prioritisation. This determined the priorities of active researchers in PEM including an emphasis on the feasibility of a research question. One hundred and six of 254 (42%) eligible participants responded to survey 1 and 142/245 (58%) to survey 2. One hundred and sixty-eight (66%) took part in either or both surveys. Two hundred forty-six individual research questions were submitted in survey 1. Survey 2 established a prioritised list of 35 research questions. Priority topics from both the Delphi and Hanlon process included high flow oxygenation in intubation, fluid volume resuscitation in sepsis, imaging in cervical spine injury, intravenous therapy for asthma and vasopressor use in sepsis. This prioritisation process has established a list of research questions, which will inform multicentre PEM research in Australia and New Zealand. It has also emphasised the importance of the translation of new knowledge. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  14. Do they stay or do they go? Acoustic monitoring of whale sharks at Ningaloo Marine Park, Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Norman, B M; Whitty, J M; Beatty, S J; Reynolds, S D; Morgan, D L

    2017-10-10

    Whale sharks Rhincodon typus were monitored via acoustic transmitters at the northern end of Western Australia's Ningaloo Marine Park to establish the extent to which the species inhabits the region beyond the whale-shark ecotourism industry season, which usually extends from March to August in each year. Despite the vast majority (c. 98%) of photographic submissions of R. typus from Ningaloo Reef being between March and August, acoustic detections from the tagged R. typus at Ningaloo were recorded in all months of the year, but do not preclude the occurrence of extended absences. It is concluded that as a species, R. typus occurs year round at Ningaloo, where it generally remains in close proximity to the reef edge, but that some individuals move outside of the detection range of the array for extended periods. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  15. Postinjury immune monitoring: can multiple organ failure be predicted?

    PubMed

    Visser, Tjaakje; Pillay, Janesh; Koenderman, Leo; Leenen, Luke P H

    2008-12-01

    Multiple organ failure is the main cause of late morbidity and mortality after severe injury. This disease state is driven by a dysfunctional immune system. Prediction of multiple organ failure on the basis of clinical parameters appears to be insufficient. A better understanding of immunological pathogenesis underlying multiple organ failure may lead to better prediction and innovation in treatment strategy in order to increase the survival of trauma patients. Immune monitoring has increased the knowledge of the pathogenesis of multiple organ failure, but many mechanisms underlying its cause and development remain to be elucidated. Consequently, adequate predictive markers for diagnosis and monitoring still need to be developed. General markers of inflammation including cytokines are correlated with posttraumatic complications with a low sensitivity and specificity and are, therefore, of little use as prognostic markers. Current findings regarding the functionality of immune cells are promising and might be of prognostic value in the near future.

  16. Social/Ethical Issues in Predictive Insider Threat Monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Zabriskie, Mariah

    2011-01-01

    Combining traditionally monitored cybersecurity data with other kinds of organizational data is one option for inferring the motivations of individuals, which may in turn allow early prediction and mitigation of insider threats. While unproven, some researchers believe that this combination of data may yield better results than either cybersecurity or organizational data would in isolation. However, this nontraditional approach creates a potential conflict between goals, such as conflicts between organizational security improvements and individual privacy considerations. There are many facets to debate. Should warning signs of a potential malicious insider be addressed before a malicious event has occurred to prevent harm to the organization and discourage the insider from violating the organization’s rules? Would intervention violate employee trust or legal guidelines? What about the possibilities of misuse? Predictive approaches cannot be validated a priori; false accusations can affect the career of the accused; and collection/monitoring of certain types of data may affect employee morale. In this chapter, we explore some of the social and ethical issues stemming from predictive insider threat monitoring and discuss ways that a predictive modeling approach brings to the forefront social and ethical issues that should be considered and resolved by stakeholders and communities of interest.

  17. Imaging proteomics for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Nazeri, Arash; Ganjgahi, Habib; Roostaei, Tina; Nichols, Thomas; Zarei, Mojtaba

    2014-11-15

    Proteomic and imaging markers have been widely studied as potential biomarkers for diagnosis, monitoring and prognosis of Alzheimer's disease. In this study, we used Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset and performed parallel independent component analysis on cross sectional and longitudinal proteomic and imaging data in order to identify the best proteomic model for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer disease (AD). We used plasma proteins measurement and imaging data from AD and healthy controls (HC) at the baseline and 1 year follow-up. Group comparisons at baseline and changes over 1 year were calculated for proteomic and imaging data. The results were fed into parallel independent component analysis in order to identify proteins that were associated with structural brain changes cross sectionally and longitudinally. Regression model was used to find the best model that can discriminate AD from HC, monitor AD and to predict MCI converters from non-converters. We showed that five proteins are associated with structural brain changes in the brain. These proteins could discriminate AD from HC with 57% specificity and 89% sensitivity. Four proteins whose change over 1 year were associated with brain structural changes could discriminate AD from HC with sensitivity of 93%, and specificity of 92%. This model predicted MCI conversion to AD in 2 years with 94% accuracy. This model has the highest accuracy in prediction of MCI conversion to AD within the ADNI-1 dataset. This study shows that combination of selected plasma protein levels and MR imaging is a useful method in identifying potential biomarker.

  18. Findings from an ovine parasitological monitoring service provided by a rural veterinary practice in New South Wales, Australia.

    PubMed

    Kozaruk, M K; Churchill, R; Windsor, P A

    2015-04-01

    To describe an ovine parasitological monitoring service delivered by a rural veterinary practice and determine associations between flock, anthelmintic and monitoring factors and worm control. Retrospective study of records from a rural veterinary practice in south-eastern Australia over an 8.75-year period. Records of sheep producers using veterinary services for gastrointestinal parasite management from 1 August 2003 to 30 April 2012 were analysed. Results from pre- (FECt1 ) and post-treatment faecal egg counts (FECt2 ) were used to identify factors influencing anthelmintic effectiveness, calculated as faecal egg count reduction percentage (FECR%) by linear mixed model analyses. The trends in anthelmintic merchandising and uptake of veterinary services for parasite management were determined by logistic regression analyses. FECR% varied according to the treatment group used (P < 0.001), with an apparent decreasing effectiveness of the macrocylic lactone group over the duration of the study (P = 0.008). Wether and ram flocks displayed lower FECR% than ewe flocks (P < 0.05). Time between FECt1 and treatment (P = 0.031), as well as time between treatment and FECt2 (P < 0.001), had a significant negative association with FECR%. The proportion of properties purchasing 4-way combination anthelmintics increased significantly over the study period (P < 0.001), with declines observed in other anthelmintics (P < 0.05). The proportion of properties performing FECR% monitoring to those that purchased anthelmintics increased significantly over the study period (P = 0.001). Anthelmintic treatment type, sex of the flock and time between drenching and testing had the greatest influence on drench effectiveness (FECR%). An increasing reliance on 4-way combination drenches to manage gastrointestinal parasitism was demonstrated. Benefits of parasitological monitoring include: appropriate advice on parasitological management; observations on trends in regional anthelmintic usage

  19. Laboratory surveillance of invasive pneumococcal disease in Australia, 2003 predicting the future impact of the universal childhood conjugate vaccine program.

    PubMed

    Watson, Michael; Roche, Paul; Bayley, Kathy; Bell, Jan M; Collignon, Peter; Gilbert, Gwendolyn L; Hogg, Geoff; Keil, Anthony D; Krause, Vicki; Murphy, Denise; Smith, Helen V; Brown, Mitchell; Stylianopoulos, Joanne; Turnidge, John

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) laboratory surveillance program was carried out in Australia in 2003. This program provided data on the prevalence of pneumococcal serotypes and antimicrobial resistance. There were 1,995 isolates tested with 34 per cent (683) from children aged less than five years and 27 per cent (535) from the elderly aged more than 65 years. One thousand eight hundred and sixty were isolates from blood, 79 from CSF and 56 from other sterile sites. In young children, 84 per cent of isolates were a serotype and 92 per cent a serogroup in the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vPCV). Of penicillin resistant isolates in children less than five years of age 85 per cent and 98 per cent were a serotype and serogroup in the 7vPCV respectively. When the universal 7vPCV vaccine program in young children is introduced in 2005, a proportion of cases of IPD should also be prevented in young adults (estimated reduction of 54 cases annually) and elderly Australians (an estimated reduction of 110 cases annually) as a result of improved herd immunity. Pneumococcal serotypes with higher rates of penicillin resistance (19F, 14 and 6B) were more prevalent in the elderly than in young children. In contrast, erythromycin resistance was more common in children less than five years of age (24%) compared to the elderly (15%). The predominant serotype with erythromycin resistance in Australia was serotype 14 and thus there is likely to be a major reduction in erythromycin resistance as a result of 7vPCV vaccination. Continued surveillance of pneumococcal serotype distribution and antibiotic susceptibility will be essential in order to identify serotype replacement by non-vaccine serotypes and to monitor the overall impact of current and future vaccine programs on invasive pneumococcal disease in Australia, not only in young children but also in other age groups.

  20. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  1. Water utilization, evapotranspiration and soil moisture monitoring in the south east region of south Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccloy, K. R.; Shepherd, K. J.; Mcintosh, G. F. (Principal Investigator)

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. It was established that reliable estimates of sand and coastal scrub areas can be determined from LANDSAT image classification by the Vec classifier more economically than by conventional means from a map of the coastal zone produced by photointerpretation using 1:10,000 aerial photography. Current LANDSAT imagery is also suitable for monitoring for large scale storm damage to the zone, but the normal change in sand areas extent due to man's activity or other reasons, is about 5 to 10 m per year, occasionally being as great as 30 m per year, so that it is considered that LANDSAT D will have the resolution necessary to monitor these changes but not current imagery.

  2. Predicting the location and spatial extent of submerged coral reef habitat in the Great Barrier Reef world heritage area, Australia.

    PubMed

    Bridge, Tom; Beaman, Robin; Done, Terry; Webster, Jody

    2012-01-01

    Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef. Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR. Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs. Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High-quality bathymetry data can be used to identify these reefs, which may play an

  3. Predicting the Location and Spatial Extent of Submerged Coral Reef Habitat in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Bridge, Tom; Beaman, Robin; Done, Terry; Webster, Jody

    2012-01-01

    Aim Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef. Location Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Methods Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR. Results Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs. Main Conclusion Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High-quality bathymetry data can be used

  4. Monitoring of wild birds for Newcastle disease virus in north Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Hoque, M A; Burgess, G W; Karo-Karo, D; Cheam, A L; Skerratt, L F

    2012-01-01

    surveillance programs for NDVs in northern Australia.

  5. Continuous event monitoring via a Bayesian predictive approach.

    PubMed

    Di, Jianing; Wang, Daniel; Brashear, H Robert; Dragalin, Vladimir; Krams, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In clinical trials, continuous monitoring of event incidence rate plays a critical role in making timely decisions affecting trial outcome. For example, continuous monitoring of adverse events protects the safety of trial participants, while continuous monitoring of efficacy events helps identify early signals of efficacy or futility. Because the endpoint of interest is often the event incidence associated with a given length of treatment duration (e.g., incidence proportion of an adverse event with 2 years of dosing), assessing the event proportion before reaching the intended treatment duration becomes challenging, especially when the event onset profile evolves over time with accumulated exposure. In particular, in the earlier part of the study, ignoring censored subjects may result in significant bias in estimating the cumulative event incidence rate. Such a problem is addressed using a predictive approach in the Bayesian framework. In the proposed approach, experts' prior knowledge about both the frequency and timing of the event occurrence is combined with observed data. More specifically, during any interim look, each event-free subject will be counted with a probability that is derived using prior knowledge. The proposed approach is particularly useful in early stage studies for signal detection based on limited information. But it can also be used as a tool for safety monitoring (e.g., data monitoring committee) during later stage trials. Application of the approach is illustrated using a case study where the incidence rate of an adverse event is continuously monitored during an Alzheimer's disease clinical trial. The performance of the proposed approach is also assessed and compared with other Bayesian and frequentist methods via simulation.

  6. The value of model averaging and dynamical climate model predictions for improving statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts over Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pokhrel, Prafulla; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.

    2013-10-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts are valuable for planning and allocation of water resources. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology employs a statistical method to forecast seasonal streamflows. The method uses predictors that are related to catchment wetness at the start of a forecast period and to climate during the forecast period. For the latter, a predictor is selected among a number of lagged climate indices as candidates to give the "best" model in terms of model performance in cross validation. This study investigates two strategies for further improvement in seasonal streamflow forecasts. The first is to combine, through Bayesian model averaging, multiple candidate models with different lagged climate indices as predictors, to take advantage of different predictive strengths of the multiple models. The second strategy is to introduce additional candidate models, using rainfall and sea surface temperature predictions from a global climate model as predictors. This is to take advantage of the direct simulations of various dynamic processes. The results show that combining forecasts from multiple statistical models generally yields more skillful forecasts than using only the best model and appears to moderate the worst forecast errors. The use of rainfall predictions from the dynamical climate model marginally improves the streamflow forecasts when viewed over all the study catchments and seasons, but the use of sea surface temperature predictions provide little additional benefit.

  7. The Wake Vortex Prediction and Monitoring System WSVBS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerz, T.; Holzäpfel, F.

    2009-09-01

    Design and performance of the Wake Vortex Prediction and Monitoring System WSVBS are described. The WSVBS has been developed to tactically increase airport capacity for approach and landing on closely-spaced parallel runways. It is thought to dynamically adjust aircraft separations dependent on weather conditions and the resulting wake vortex behaviour without compromising safety. The WSVBS consists of components that consider meteorological conditions, aircraft glide path adherence, aircraft parameter combinations representing aircraft weight categories, the resulting wake-vortex behaviour, the surrounding safety areas, wake vortex monitoring, and the integration of the predictions into the arrival manager. The WSVBS has been designed and applied to Frankfurt Airport. However, its components are generic and can well be adjusted to any runway system and or airport location. The prediction horizon is larger than 45 min (as required by air traffic control) and updated every 10 minutes. It predicts the concepts of operations and procedures established by DFS and it further predicts additional temporal separations for in-trail traffic. A specific feature of the WSVBS is the usage of both measured and predicted meteorological quantities as input to wake vortex prediction. In ground proximity where the probability to encounter wake vortices is highest, the wake predictor employs measured environmental parameters that yield superior prediction results. For the less critical part aloft, which can not be monitored completely by instrumentation, the meteorological parameters are taken from dedicated numerical terminal weather predictions. The wake vortex model predicts envelopes for vortex position and strength which implicitly consider the quality of the meteorological input data. This feature is achieved by a training procedure which employs statistics of measured and predicted meteorological parameters and the resulting wake vortex behaviour. The WSVBS combines various

  8. Dynamic computing resource allocation in online flood monitoring and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, S.; Podhoranyi, M.; Vavrik, R.; Portero, A.

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents tools and methodologies for dynamic allocation of high performance computing resources during operation of the Floreon+ online flood monitoring and prediction system. The resource allocation is done throughout the execution of supported simulations to meet the required service quality levels for system operation. It also ensures flexible reactions to changing weather and flood situations, as it is not economically feasible to operate online flood monitoring systems in the full performance mode during non-flood seasons. Different service quality levels are therefore described for different flooding scenarios, and the runtime manager controls them by allocating only minimal resources currently expected to meet the deadlines. Finally, an experiment covering all presented aspects of computing resource allocation in rainfall-runoff and Monte Carlo uncertainty simulation is performed for the area of the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic.

  9. Review of the potential use of brown algal ecotoxicological assays in monitoring effluent discharge and pollution in southern Australia.

    PubMed

    Burridge, T R; Bidwell, J

    2002-01-01

    The temperate near-shore reefs of southern Australasia possess diverse assemblages of brown algal macrophytes which underpin major grazing and detrital food chains in medium to high energy coastal habitats. These 'kelp' communities are at risk from effluent discharge with documented decline of macrophyte stands in areas subject to outfall. Recent studies utilising reproductive endpoints of several Australian species in ecotoxicological assays have highlighted their sensitivity to pollution. Results indicate an acceptable degree of reproducibility for assays with variation in response between taxa presumably related to differing habitat requirements and potential for stress resulting from toxicant/pollution exposure. Species studied are drawn from the orders Laminariales and Fucales, with the latter in particular offering substantial scope for further investigation. The greatest diversity of fucoid algae is found in south-eastern Australia and closely related taxa occur in similar latitudes in both the southern and northern hemispheres. The broad distribution of taxa from both taxonomic groups enables ready comparison of assays from disparate locations and offers the potential for simple, routine toxicological testing and habitat monitoring across broad geographic ranges.

  10. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES.

    SciTech Connect

    LOFARO,R.; SOO,P.; VILLARAN,M.; GROVE,E.

    2001-03-29

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed.

  11. Use of three monitoring approaches to manage a major Chrysosporum ovalisporum bloom in the Murray River, Australia, 2016.

    PubMed

    Crawford, Adam; Holliday, Jon; Merrick, Chester; Brayan, John; van Asten, Mark; Bowling, Lee

    2017-04-01

    An unusual bloom of Chrysosporum ovalisporum (basionym Aphanizomenon ovalisporum) occurred for the first time in the Murray River and distributary rivers in New South Wales, Australia, from mid-February to early June 2016. At its greatest extent, it contaminated a combined river length of ca. 2360 km. Chrysosporum ovalisporum usually comprised >99% of the total bloom biovolume at most locations sampled, which at times exceeded 40 mm(3) l(-1). The origins of the bloom were most likely reservoirs on the upper Murray River, with cyanobacterial-infested water released from them contaminating the river systems downstream. An integrated approach using three analytical methods: (1) identification and enumeration by microscopy, (2) multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), and (3) toxin analysis, was used to obtain data for the assessment of risk to water users and management of the bloom. qPCR indicated some cyrA and stxA genes responsible for cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxin biosynthesis respectively were present, but mostly below the level of quantification. No mcyE genes for microcystin biosynthesis were detected. Toxin analysis also revealed that cylindrospermopsin, saxitoxin and microcystin were all below detection. Lack of measurable toxicity in a species usually considered a cylindrospermopsin producer elsewhere meant the possibility of relaxing management guidelines; however, high (Red) alerts needed to be maintained due to risk to water users from other biohazards potentially produced by the cyanobacteria such as contact irritants. A three-tiered monitoring strategy is suggested for monitoring cyanobacterial blooms to provide enhanced data for bloom management.

  12. Causal simulation and sensor planning in predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.

    1989-01-01

    Two issues are addressed which arise in the task of detecting anomalous behavior in complex systems with numerous sensor channels: how to adjust alarm thresholds dynamically, within the changing operating context of the system, and how to utilize sensors selectively, so that nominal operation can be verified reliably without processing a prohibitive amount of sensor data. The approach involves simulation of a causal model of the system, which provides information on expected sensor values, and on dependencies between predicted events, useful in assessing the relative importance of events so that sensor resources can be allocated effectively. The potential applicability of this work to the execution monitoring of robot task plans is briefly discussed.

  13. Predictive simulation of guide-wave structural health monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giurgiutiu, Victor

    2017-04-01

    This paper presents an overview of recent developments on predictive simulation of guided wave structural health monitoring (SHM) with piezoelectric wafer active sensor (PWAS) transducers. The predictive simulation methodology is based on the hybrid global local (HGL) concept which allows fast analytical simulation in the undamaged global field and finite element method (FEM) simulation in the local field around and including the damage. The paper reviews the main results obtained in this area by researchers of the Laboratory for Active Materials and Smart Structures (LAMSS) at the University of South Carolina, USA. After thematic introduction and research motivation, the paper covers four main topics: (i) presentation of the HGL analysis; (ii) analytical simulation in 1D and 2D; (iii) scatter field generation; (iv) HGL examples. The paper ends with summary, discussion, and suggestions for future work.

  14. Application of the extreme learning machine algorithm for the prediction of monthly Effective Drought Index in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Şahin, Mehmet

    2015-02-01

    The prediction of future drought is an effective mitigation tool for assessing adverse consequences of drought events on vital water resources, agriculture, ecosystems and hydrology. Data-driven model predictions using machine learning algorithms are promising tenets for these purposes as they require less developmental time, minimal inputs and are relatively less complex than the dynamic or physical model. This paper authenticates a computationally simple, fast and efficient non-linear algorithm known as extreme learning machine (ELM) for the prediction of Effective Drought Index (EDI) in eastern Australia using input data trained from 1957-2008 and the monthly EDI predicted over the period 2009-2011. The predictive variables for the ELM model were the rainfall and mean, minimum and maximum air temperatures, supplemented by the large-scale climate mode indices of interest as regression covariates, namely the Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole moment. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven model a performance comparison in terms of the prediction capabilities and learning speeds was conducted between the proposed ELM algorithm and the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm trained with Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation. The prediction metrics certified an excellent performance of the ELM over the ANN model for the overall test sites, thus yielding Mean Absolute Errors, Root-Mean Square Errors, Coefficients of Determination and Willmott's Indices of Agreement of 0.277, 0.008, 0.892 and 0.93 (for ELM) and 0.602, 0.172, 0.578 and 0.92 (for ANN) models. Moreover, the ELM model was executed with learning speed 32 times faster and training speed 6.1 times faster than the ANN model. An improvement in the prediction capability of the drought duration and severity by the ELM model was achieved. Based on these results we aver that out of the two machine learning

  15. Multivariate Drought Characterization in India for Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sreekumaran Unnithan, P.; Mondal, A.

    2016-12-01

    Droughts are one of the most important natural hazards that affect the society significantly in terms of mortality and productivity. The metric that is most widely used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to monitor and predict the occurrence, spread, intensification and termination of drought is based on the univariate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). However, droughts may be caused by the influence and interaction of many variables (such as precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, etc.), emphasizing the need for a multivariate approach for drought characterization. This study advocates and illustrates use of the recently proposed multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) in monitoring and prediction of drought and assessing its concerned risk in the Indian region. MSDI combines information from multiple sources: precipitation and soil moisture, and has been deemed to be a more reliable drought index. All-India monthly rainfall and soil moisture data sets are analysed for the period 1980 to 2014 to characterize historical droughts using both the univariate indices, the precipitation-based SPI and the standardized soil moisture index (SSI), as well as the multivariate MSDI using parametric and non-parametric approaches. We confirm that MSDI can capture droughts of 1986 and 1990 that aren't detected by using SPI alone. Moreover, in 1987, MSDI indicated a higher severity of drought when a deficiency in both soil moisture and precipitation was encountered. Further, this study also explores the use of MSDI for drought forecasts and assesses its performance vis-à-vis existing predictions from the IMD. Future research efforts will be directed towards formulating a more robust standardized drought indicator that can take into account socio-economic aspects that also play a key role for water-stressed regions such as India.

  16. Understanding invasion history and predicting invasive niches using genetic sequencing technology in Australia: case studies from Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae

    PubMed Central

    Shaik, Razia S.; Zhu, Xiaocheng; Clements, David R.; Weston, Leslie A.

    2016-01-01

    Part of the challenge in dealing with invasive plant species is that they seldom represent a uniform, static entity. Often, an accurate understanding of the history of plant introduction and knowledge of the real levels of genetic diversity present in species and populations of importance is lacking. Currently, the role of genetic diversity in promoting the successful establishment of invasive plants is not well defined. Genetic profiling of invasive plants should enhance our understanding of the dynamics of colonization in the invaded range. Recent advances in DNA sequencing technology have greatly facilitated the rapid and complete assessment of plant population genetics. Here, we apply our current understanding of the genetics and ecophysiology of plant invasions to recent work on Australian plant invaders from the Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae. The Cucurbitaceae study showed that both prickly paddy melon (Cucumis myriocarpus) and camel melon (Citrullus lanatus) were represented by only a single genotype in Australia, implying that each was probably introduced as a single introduction event. In contrast, a third invasive melon, Citrullus colocynthis, possessed a moderate level of genetic diversity in Australia and was potentially introduced to the continent at least twice. The Boraginaceae study demonstrated the value of comparing two similar congeneric species; one, Echium plantagineum, is highly invasive and genetically diverse, whereas the other, Echium vulgare, exhibits less genetic diversity and occupies a more limited ecological niche. Sequence analysis provided precise identification of invasive plant species, as well as information on genetic diversity and phylogeographic history. Improved sequencing technologies will continue to allow greater resolution of genetic relationships among invasive plant populations, thereby potentially improving our ability to predict the impact of these relationships upon future spread and better manage invaders possessing

  17. Understanding invasion history and predicting invasive niches using genetic sequencing technology in Australia: case studies from Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae.

    PubMed

    Shaik, Razia S; Zhu, Xiaocheng; Clements, David R; Weston, Leslie A

    2016-01-01

    Part of the challenge in dealing with invasive plant species is that they seldom represent a uniform, static entity. Often, an accurate understanding of the history of plant introduction and knowledge of the real levels of genetic diversity present in species and populations of importance is lacking. Currently, the role of genetic diversity in promoting the successful establishment of invasive plants is not well defined. Genetic profiling of invasive plants should enhance our understanding of the dynamics of colonization in the invaded range. Recent advances in DNA sequencing technology have greatly facilitated the rapid and complete assessment of plant population genetics. Here, we apply our current understanding of the genetics and ecophysiology of plant invasions to recent work on Australian plant invaders from the Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae. The Cucurbitaceae study showed that both prickly paddy melon (Cucumis myriocarpus) and camel melon (Citrullus lanatus) were represented by only a single genotype in Australia, implying that each was probably introduced as a single introduction event. In contrast, a third invasive melon, Citrullus colocynthis, possessed a moderate level of genetic diversity in Australia and was potentially introduced to the continent at least twice. The Boraginaceae study demonstrated the value of comparing two similar congeneric species; one, Echium plantagineum, is highly invasive and genetically diverse, whereas the other, Echium vulgare, exhibits less genetic diversity and occupies a more limited ecological niche. Sequence analysis provided precise identification of invasive plant species, as well as information on genetic diversity and phylogeographic history. Improved sequencing technologies will continue to allow greater resolution of genetic relationships among invasive plant populations, thereby potentially improving our ability to predict the impact of these relationships upon future spread and better manage invaders possessing

  18. Climate predictions accelerate decline for threatened macrozamia cycads from queensland, australia.

    PubMed

    Laidlaw, Melinda J; Forster, Paul I

    2012-12-14

    Changes in the potential habitat of five allopatric species of threatened Macrozamia cycads under scenarios of increased ambient temperature were examined. A lack of seed dispersal, poor recruitment, low seedling survival, obligate pollinator mutualisms and continued habitat loss have led to extant populations being largely restricted to refugia. Models predict that the area of suitable habitat will further contract and move upslope, resulting in a reduced incidence within protected areas with increasing annual mean temperature. Areas of potential habitat for all five species are also predicted to become increasingly isolated from one another, further reducing the exchange between metapopulations and subpopulations, exacerbating existing threatening processes.

  19. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

    2015-06-01

    Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  20. Predictive model for the growth of spoilage bacteria on modified atmosphere packaged Atlantic salmon produced in Australia.

    PubMed

    Powell, S M; Ratkowsky, D A; Tamplin, M L

    2015-05-01

    Most existing models for the spoilage of modified atmosphere packed Atlantic salmon are based on the growth of the spoilage organism Photobacterium phosphoreum. However, there is evidence that this organism is not the specific spoilage organism on salmon produced and packaged in Australia. We developed a predictive model for the growth of bacteria in Australian-produced Atlantic salmon stored under modified atmosphere conditions (30-98% carbon dioxide in nitrogen) at refrigeration temperatures (0-10 °C). As expected, both higher levels of carbon dioxide and lower temperatures decreased the observed growth rates of the total population. A Bělehrádek-type model for growth rate fitted the data best with an acceptably low root mean square error. At low temperatures (∼0 °C) the growth rates in this study were similar to those predicted by other models but at higher temperatures (∼10 °C) the growth rates were significantly lower in the current study.

  1. Remotely Monitoring Change in Vegetation Cover on the Montebello Islands, Western Australia, in Response to Introduced Rodent Eradication

    PubMed Central

    Lohr, Cheryl; Van Dongen, Ricky; Huntley, Bart; Gibson, Lesley; Morris, Keith

    2014-01-01

    The Montebello archipelago consists of 218 islands; 80 km from the north-west coast of Western Australia. Before 1912 the islands had a diverse terrestrial fauna. By 1952 several species were locally extinct. Between 1996 and 2011 rodents and cats were eradicated, and 5 mammal and 2 bird species were translocated to the islands. Monitoring of the broader terrestrial ecosystem over time has been limited. We used 20 dry-season Landsat images from 1988 to 2013 and estimation of green fraction cover in nadir photographs taken at 27 sites within the Montebello islands and six sites on Thevenard Island to assess change in vegetation density over time. Analysis of data averaged across the 26-year period suggests that 719 ha out of 2169 ha have increased in vegetation cover by up to 32%, 955 ha have remained stable and 0.6 ha have declined in vegetation cover. Over 492 ha (22%) had no vegetation cover at any time during the period analysed. Chronological clustering analysis identified two breakpoints in the average vegetation cover data occurring in 1997 and 2003, near the beginning and end of the rodent eradication activities. On many islands vegetation cover was declining prior to 1996 but increased after rodents were eradicated from the islands. Data for North West and Trimouille islands were analysed independently because of the potential confounding effect of native fauna being introduced to these islands. Mala (Lagorchestes hirsutus) and Shark Bay mice (Pseudomys fieldi) both appear to suppress native plant recruitment but not to the same degree as introduced rodents. Future research should assess whether the increase in vegetation cover on the Montebello islands is due to an increase in native or introduced plants. PMID:25436454

  2. Remotely monitoring change in vegetation cover on the Montebello Islands, Western Australia, in response to introduced rodent eradication.

    PubMed

    Lohr, Cheryl; Van Dongen, Ricky; Huntley, Bart; Gibson, Lesley; Morris, Keith

    2014-01-01

    The Montebello archipelago consists of 218 islands; 80 km from the north-west coast of Western Australia. Before 1912 the islands had a diverse terrestrial fauna. By 1952 several species were locally extinct. Between 1996 and 2011 rodents and cats were eradicated, and 5 mammal and 2 bird species were translocated to the islands. Monitoring of the broader terrestrial ecosystem over time has been limited. We used 20 dry-season Landsat images from 1988 to 2013 and estimation of green fraction cover in nadir photographs taken at 27 sites within the Montebello islands and six sites on Thevenard Island to assess change in vegetation density over time. Analysis of data averaged across the 26-year period suggests that 719 ha out of 2169 ha have increased in vegetation cover by up to 32%, 955 ha have remained stable and 0.6 ha have declined in vegetation cover. Over 492 ha (22%) had no vegetation cover at any time during the period analysed. Chronological clustering analysis identified two breakpoints in the average vegetation cover data occurring in 1997 and 2003, near the beginning and end of the rodent eradication activities. On many islands vegetation cover was declining prior to 1996 but increased after rodents were eradicated from the islands. Data for North West and Trimouille islands were analysed independently because of the potential confounding effect of native fauna being introduced to these islands. Mala (Lagorchestes hirsutus) and Shark Bay mice (Pseudomys fieldi) both appear to suppress native plant recruitment but not to the same degree as introduced rodents. Future research should assess whether the increase in vegetation cover on the Montebello islands is due to an increase in native or introduced plants.

  3. Environmental conditions predict helminth prevalence in red foxes in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Dybing, Narelle A; Fleming, Patricia A; Adams, Peter J

    2013-12-01

    Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are the most common and widely distributed wild carnivore worldwide. These predators harbour a wide range of parasites, many of which may have important conservation, agricultural and zoonotic repercussions. This project investigated the occurrence of helminth parasites from the intestines of 147 red foxes across 14 sampling localities of southwest Western Australia. Helminth parasites were detected in 58% of fox intestines: Dipylidium caninum (27.7% of foxes), Uncinaria stenocephala (18.2%), Toxocara canis (14.9%), Spirometra erinaceieuropaei (5.4%), Toxascaris leonina (4.7%), Taenia serialis (1.4%), Taenia hydatigena (0.7%), unidentified Taenia spp. (4.1%), Brachylaima cribbi (0.7%), Plagiorchis maculosus (0.7%) and an Acanthocephalan; family Centrorhynchidae (2.1%). Importantly, two cestodes of agricultural significance, Echinococcus granulosus and Taenia ovis, were not detected in red foxes in this study, despite the presence of suitable intermediate hosts in the diets of these animals. Parasite richness varied from 1-3 species per host, with average parasite number varying from 1-39 worms (across all helminth species). Regression analyses indicated that the presence of four helminth parasites was related to various environmental factors. The presence of S. erinaceieuropaei (p < 0.001), T. leonina (p < 0.01) and U. stenocephala (p < 0.01) was positively associated with average relative humidity which may affect the longevity of infective stages in the environment. The presence of S. erinaceieuropaei and U. stenocephala (p < 0.001) was positively associated with 5-y-average minimum temperature which could reflect poor survival of infective stages through cold winter conditions. The presence of T. canis and U. stenocephala (p < 0.001) was positively associated with the percentage cover of native vegetation at each sampling location, which is likely to reflect transmission from native prey species acting as paratenic hosts

  4. Assessing the repeatability of terrestrial laser scanning for monitoring gully topography: A case study from Aratula, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwin, Nicholas Robert; Armston, John; Stiller, Isaac; Muir, Jasmine

    2016-06-01

    Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) technology is a powerful tool for quantifying gully morphology and monitoring change over time. This is due to the high sampling density, sub-centimetre positional accuracies (x, y, z), flexibility of survey configurations and ability to link multiple TLS scans together. However, to ensure correct interpretation of results, research is needed to test the repeatability of TLS derived products to quantify the accuracy and separate 'false' from 'true' geomorphic change. In this study, we use the RIEGL VZ400 scanner to test the repeatability of TLS datasets for mapping gully morphology. We then quantify change following a rainfall event of approximately 100 mm. Our study site, located in south-east Queensland, Australia was chosen to be challenging from a repeatability perspective with high topographic variability. The TLS data capture involved three sets of linked scans: one survey pre-rainfall, to be compared to two surveys post-rainfall acquired on consecutive days. Change is considered negligible in the two post-rainfall scans to test survey repeatability. To verify TLS accuracy, an independent dataset of gully extent and spot heights were acquired using traditional total station techniques. Results confirm that the TLS datasets can be registered multi-temporally at sub-centimetre levels of accuracy in three dimensions. Total station and TLS elevation samples showed strong agreement with a mean error and standard deviation (SD) of residuals equal to 0.052 and 0.047 m, respectively (n = 889). Significantly, our repeatability tests found that return type and pulse deviation influence the accuracy and repeatability of DEMs in gully environments. Analysis of consecutive day datasets showed that DEMs derived from first return data recorded 40% higher SD of residual error than DEMs using multiple return data. A significant empirical relationship between pulse deviation and the variance of residuals for repeat DEMs is also shown (r2 = 0

  5. Mortality of Inshore Marine Mammals in Eastern Australia Is Predicted by Freshwater Discharge and Air Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Meager, Justin J.; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality. PMID:24740149

  6. Mortality of inshore marine mammals in eastern Australia is predicted by freshwater discharge and air temperature.

    PubMed

    Meager, Justin J; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality.

  7. A novel bridge scour monitoring and prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Michalis, Panagiotis; Zhang, Hanqing

    2015-04-01

    obtaining real time data, via novel electromagnetic sensors monitoring scour depth. Once the model is trained with data representative of the new system, bridge scour prediction can be performed for high/design flows or floods.

  8. The SupraThermal Ion Monitor for space weather predictions.

    PubMed

    Allegrini, F; Desai, M I; Livi, S; McComas, D J; Ho, G C

    2014-05-01

    Measurement of suprathermal energy ions in the heliosphere has always been challenging because (1) these ions are situated in the energy regime only a few times higher than the solar wind plasma, where intensities are orders of magnitude higher and (2) ion energies are below or close to the threshold of state-of-art solid-state detectors. Suprathermal ions accelerated at coronal mass ejection-driven shocks propagate out ahead of the shocks. These shocks can cause geomagnetic storms in the Earth's magnetosphere that can affect spacecraft and ground-based power and communication systems. An instrument with sufficient sensitivity to measure these ions can be used to predict the arrival of the shocks and provide an advance warning for potentially geo-effective space weather. In this paper, we present a novel energy analyzer concept, the Suprathermal Ion Monitor (STIM) that is designed to measure suprathermal ions with high sensitivity. We show results from a laboratory prototype and demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. A list of key performances is given, as well as a discussion of various possible detectors at the back end. STIM is an ideal candidate for a future space weather monitor in orbit upstream of the near-earth environment, for example, around L1. A scaled-down version is suitable for a CubeSat mission. Such a platform allows proofing the concept and demonstrating its performance in the space environment.

  9. Improving Flood Prediction By the Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture in Poorly Monitored Catchments.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvarez-Garreton, C. D.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Crow, W. T.; Su, C. H.; Robertson, D. E.

    2014-12-01

    Flood prediction in poorly monitored catchments is among the greatest challenges faced by hydrologists. To address this challenge, an increasing number of studies in the last decade have explored methods to integrate various existing observations from ground and satellites. One approach in particular, is the assimilation of satellite soil moisture (SM-DA) into rainfall-runoff models. The rationale is that satellite soil moisture (SSM) can be used to correct model soil water states, enabling more accurate prediction of catchment response to precipitation and thus better streamflow. However, there is still no consensus on the most effective SM-DA scheme and how this might depend on catchment scale, climate characteristics, runoff mechanisms, model and SSM products used, etc. In this work, an operational SM-DA scheme was set up in the poorly monitored, large (>40,000 km2), semi-arid Warrego catchment situated in eastern Australia. We assimilated passive and active SSM products into the probability distributed model (PDM) using an ensemble Kalman filter. We explored factors influencing the SM-DA framework, including relatively new techniques to remove model-observation bias, estimate observation errors and represent model errors. Furthermore, we explored the advantages of accounting for the spatial distribution of forcing and channel routing processes within the catchment by implementing and comparing lumped and semi-distributed model setups. Flood prediction is improved by SM-DA (Figure), with a 30% reduction of the average root-mean-squared difference of the ensemble prediction, a 20% reduction of the false alarm ratio and a 40% increase of the ensemble mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. SM-DA skill does not significantly change with different observation error assumptions, but the skill strongly depends on the observational bias correction technique used, and more importantly, on the performance of the open-loop model before assimilation. Our findings imply that proper

  10. Potential Wildlife Sentinels for Monitoring the Endemic Spread of Human Buruli Ulcer in South-East Australia

    PubMed Central

    Carson, Connor; Lavender, Caroline J.; Handasyde, Kathrine A.; O'Brien, Carolyn R.; Hewitt, Nick; Johnson, Paul D. R.; Fyfe, Janet A. M.

    2014-01-01

    The last 20 years has seen a significant series of outbreaks of Buruli/Bairnsdale Ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, in temperate south-eastern Australia (state of Victoria). Here, the prevailing view of M. ulcerans as an aquatic pathogen has been questioned by recent research identifying native wildlife as potential terrestrial reservoirs of infection; specifically, tree-dwelling common ringtail and brushtail possums. In that previous work, sampling of environmental possum faeces detected a high prevalence of M. ulcerans DNA in established endemic areas for human BU on the Bellarine Peninsula, compared with non-endemic areas. Here, we report research from an emergent BU focus recently identified on the Mornington Peninsula, confirming associations between human BU and the presence of the aetiological agent in possum faeces, detected by real-time PCR targeting M. ulcerans IS2404, IS2606 and KR. Mycobacterium ulcerans DNA was detected in 20/216 (9.3%) ground collected ringtail possum faecal samples and 4/6 (66.6%) brushtail possum faecal samples. The distribution of the PCR positive possum faecal samples and human BU cases was highly focal: there was a significant non-random cluster of 16 M. ulcerans positive possum faecal sample points detected by spatial scan statistics (P<0.0001) within a circle of radius 0.42 km, within which were located the addresses of 6/12 human cases reported from the area to date; moreover, the highest sample PCR signal strength (equivalent to ≥106 organisms per gram of faeces) was found in a sample point located within this cluster radius. Corresponding faecal samples collected from closely adjacent BU-free areas were predominantly negative. Possums may be useful sentinels to predict endemic spread of human BU in Victoria, for public health planning. Further research is needed to establish whether spatial associations represent evidence of direct or indirect transmission between possums and humans, and the mechanism by which

  11. A Database Approach for Predicting and Monitoring Baked Anode Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauzon-Gauthier, Julien; Duchesne, Carl; Tessier, Jayson

    2012-11-01

    The baked anode quality control strategy currently used by most carbon plants based on testing anode core samples in the laboratory is inadequate for facing increased raw material variability. The low core sampling rate limited by lab capacity and the common practice of reporting averaged properties based on some anode population mask a significant amount of individual anode variability. In addition, lab results are typically available a few weeks after production and the anodes are often already set in the reduction cells preventing early remedial actions when necessary. A database approach is proposed in this work to develop a soft-sensor for predicting individual baked anode properties at the end of baking cycle. A large historical database including raw material properties, process operating parameters and anode core data was collected from a modern Alcoa plant. A multivariate latent variable PLS regression method was used for analyzing the large database and building the soft-sensor model. It is shown that the general low frequency trends in most anode physical and mechanical properties driven by raw material changes are very well captured by the model. Improvements in the data infrastructure (instrumentation, sampling frequency and location) will be necessary for predicting higher frequency variations in individual baked anode properties. This paper also demonstrates how multivariate latent variable models can be interpreted against process knowledge and used for real-time process monitoring of carbon plants, and detection of faults and abnormal operation.

  12. Predicting career development in hard-of-hearing adolescents in Australia.

    PubMed

    Punch, Renée; Creed, Peter A; Hyde, Merv

    2005-01-01

    This article reports on a study investigating the career development of hard-of-hearing high school students attending regular classes with itinerant teacher support. We compared 65 hard-of-hearing students with a matched group of normally hearing peers on measures of career maturity, career indecision, perceived career barriers, and three variables associated with social cognitive career theory career decision-making self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and goals. In addition, the predictors of career maturity and career indecision were tested in both groups. Results indicated that (a) the two groups did not differ on measures of career maturity, (b) the SCCT variables were less predictive of career behaviors for the hard-of-hearing students than for the normally hearing students, and (c) perceived career barriers related to hearing loss predicted lower scores on career maturity attitude for the hard-of-hearing students. These findings are discussed in the context of career education and counseling interventions that may benefit young people who are hard of hearing.

  13. Sonographic monitoring of midline shift predicts outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Kiphuth, Ines C; Huttner, Hagen B; Breuer, Lorenz; Schwab, Stefan; Köhrmann, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and the evolution of subsequent perihemorrhagic edema lead to midline shift (MLS), which can be assessed by transcranial duplex sonography (TDS). In this observational study, we monitored MLS with TDS in patients with supratentorial ICH up to day 14 after the ictus, and then correlated MLS with the outcome 6 months after hospital discharge. Sixty-eight patients with spontaneous ICH (volume >20 cm(3)) were admitted during a 1-year period between April 2009 and April 2010. Sixty-one patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were eligible for analysis. TDS to measure MLS was performed upon admission and then subsequently, using serial examinations in 24-hour intervals up to day 14. Statistical tests were used to determine cut-off values for functional outcome and mortality after 6 months. The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score upon admission was 21 and the mean hematoma volume was 52 cm(3). NIHSS score, functional outcome, hematoma volume and MLS were correlated in the examined patient cohort. ICH score upon admission, hematoma volume and the extent of MLS on days 1-14 were predictive of functional outcome and death. Values of MLS showed two peaks, the first between day 2 and day 5 and the second between day 12 and day 14, indicating that edema progresses not only during the acute but also during the subacute phase. Depending on the time point, an MLS of 4.5-7.5 mm or greater indicated an impending failure of conservative therapy. An MLS of 12 mm or greater at any time indicated mortality with a sensitivity of 69%, a specificity of 100% and positive and negative predictive values of 100 and 74%, respectively. MLS seems to be a crucial factor for outcome after ICH. Apart from the hematoma volume itself, edema adds to the intracranial pressure. To monitor MLS in early patient management after ICH, TDS is a useful noninvasive bedside alternative, avoiding increased radiation exposure and repeated

  14. Health practitioners’ perceptions of adopting clinical prediction rules in the management of musculoskeletal pain: a qualitative study in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Kelly, Joan; Sterling, Michele; Rebbeck, Trudy; Bandong, Aila Nica; Leaver, Andrew; Mackey, Martin; Ritchie, Carrie

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To investigate health practitioners’ understanding and practice behaviours with regards to clinical prediction rules (CPRs) and explore their perceptions of adopting a new whiplash CPR. Design Qualitative study using six semistructured focus groups. Setting Primary and secondary care in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. Participants Physiotherapists (n=19), chiropractors (n=6) and osteopaths (n=3) were purposively sampled to include health practitioners who provide routine treatment to people with whiplash-associated disorders. Methods Focus group discussions (n=6) were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using an inductive thematic approach. Results Health practitioners’ understanding and use of CPRs were mixed. Clinicians considered components relating to acceptability (‘whether I agree with it’) and implementation (‘how I'll use it’) when deciding on whether to adopt a new CPR. Acceptability was informed by four themes: knowledge and understanding, CPR type, congruence and weighted value. Consideration of matters that promote implementation occurred once a CPR was deemed to be acceptable. Three themes were identified as potentially enhancing whiplash CPR implementation: the presence of an external driver of adoption, flexibility in how the CPR could be administered and guidance regarding communication of CPR output to patients. Conclusions Education on CPR purpose and fit with practice is needed to enhance the perceived acceptability of CPRs. Strategies that facilitate practitioner motivation, enable administrative flexibility and assist clinicians in communicating the results of the whiplash CPR could promote adoption of the whiplash CPR. PMID:28801412

  15. Artificial neural network model for earthquake prediction with radon monitoring.

    PubMed

    Külahci, Fatih; Inceöz, Murat; Doğru, Mahmut; Aksoy, Ercan; Baykara, Oktay

    2009-01-01

    Apart from the linear monitoring studies concerning the relationship between radon and earthquake, an artificial neural networks (ANNs) model approach is presented starting out from non-linear changes of the eight different parameters during the earthquake occurrence. A three-layer Levenberg-Marquardt feedforward learning algorithm is used to model the earthquake prediction process in the East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS). The proposed ANN system employs individual training strategy with fixed-weight and supervised models leading to estimations. The average relative error between the magnitudes of the earthquakes acquired by ANN and measured data is about 2.3%. The relative error between the test and earthquake data varies between 0% and 12%. In addition, the factor analysis was applied on all data and the model output values to see the statistical variation. The total variance of 80.18% was explained with four factors by this analysis. Consequently, it can be concluded that ANN approach is a potential alternative to other models with complex mathematical operations.

  16. The challenges of empirical impact prediction with monitored drought indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahl, Kerstin; Bachmair, Sophie; Blauhut, Veit; Kohn, Irene; Tijdeman, Erik

    2017-04-01

    Drought monitoring and early warning still relies primarily on drought indicators selected or combined from hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, modeled soil moisture, observed or modeled streamflow, and in some cases remotely sensed vegetation health. To guide the selection and give these indices more meaning for drought management decisions, a number of studies have investigated empirically the linkage between these indices and records of drought impact occurrence. These studies have been inspired by the damage function approach employed in risk assessments of other natural hazards. In this contribution we systematically review and assess the feasibility of finding impact-indicator link functions suitable for prediction. Impact information was derived from large archives of text-based, coded impact reports, such as the European Drought Impact report Inventory and the US Drought Impact Reporter and link functions were analyzed at various spatial scales for various subsets of impact types and drought events. The identified challenges include the rapid decrease of data when subsetting for specific impact sectors or smaller spatial areas, the choice of the link model, and a variety of potential dynamic changes to the underlying conditions between and even during drought events. Based on the assessment, recommendations for a successful and applicable link model include in particular a careful pre-processing of index and impact data and more systematic impact data collection in the future.

  17. Student Metacognitive Monitoring: Predicting Test Achievement from Judgment Accuracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valdez, Alfred

    2013-01-01

    Metacognitive monitoring processes have been shown to be critical determinants of human learning. Metacognitive monitoring consist of various knowledge estimates that enable learners to engage in self-regulatory processes important for both the acquisition of knowledge and the monitoring of one's knowledge when engaged in assessment. This study…

  18. Health practitioners' perceptions of adopting clinical prediction rules in the management of musculoskeletal pain: a qualitative study in Australia.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Joan; Sterling, Michele; Rebbeck, Trudy; Bandong, Aila Nica; Leaver, Andrew; Mackey, Martin; Ritchie, Carrie

    2017-08-11

    To investigate health practitioners' understanding and practice behaviours with regards to clinical prediction rules (CPRs) and explore their perceptions of adopting a new whiplash CPR. Qualitative study using six semistructured focus groups. Primary and secondary care in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. Physiotherapists (n=19), chiropractors (n=6) and osteopaths (n=3) were purposively sampled to include health practitioners who provide routine treatment to people with whiplash-associated disorders. Focus group discussions (n=6) were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using an inductive thematic approach. Health practitioners' understanding and use of CPRs were mixed. Clinicians considered components relating to acceptability ('whether I agree with it') and implementation ('how I'll use it') when deciding on whether to adopt a new CPR. Acceptability was informed by four themes: knowledge and understanding, CPR type, congruence and weighted value. Consideration of matters that promote implementation occurred once a CPR was deemed to be acceptable. Three themes were identified as potentially enhancing whiplash CPR implementation: the presence of an external driver of adoption, flexibility in how the CPR could be administered and guidance regarding communication of CPR output to patients. Education on CPR purpose and fit with practice is needed to enhance the perceived acceptability of CPRs. Strategies that facilitate practitioner motivation, enable administrative flexibility and assist clinicians in communicating the results of the whiplash CPR could promote adoption of the whiplash CPR. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  19. Investigation of the mud crab (Scylla serrata) as a potential bio-monitoring species for tropical coastal marine environments of Australia.

    PubMed

    van Oosterom, Jake; Codi King, Susan; Negri, Andrew; Humphrey, Craig; Mondon, Julie

    2010-02-01

    Mud crabs, Scylla serrata, were sampled from four estuaries (the Normanby, Herbert, Burdekin and Fitzroy Rivers) along the coast of northern Queensland, Australia, representing a pollution gradient from low to high contamination based upon previous chemical monitoring. Four biomarkers; glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activity, cholinesterase (ChE) inhibition and the urinary metabolite concentrations of naphthalene (NPH) and benzo-a-pyrene (BaP) were evaluated in S. serrata hepatopancreas, haemolymph and urine. Site-specific evidence of elevated GST activity and BaP metabolite concentrations and significant ChE inhibition was detected. Biomarker responses from this field study provide evidence of contaminant exposure of S. serrata from river estuaries along the coast of northern Queensland and indicate that further investigation is warranted. Based on the current results, and with further work on characterising the dose-response and seasonal variation in this species, mud crabs have great potential as indicator species for water quality and ecosystem monitoring programs across tropical coastal regions of Australia.

  20. Reliability and utility of citizen science reef monitoring data collected by Reef Check Australia, 2002-2015.

    PubMed

    Done, Terence; Roelfsema, Chris; Harvey, Andrew; Schuller, Laura; Hill, Jocelyn; Schläppy, Marie-Lise; Lea, Alexandra; Bauer-Civiello, Anne; Loder, Jennifer

    2017-04-15

    Reef Check Australia (RCA) has collected data on benthic composition and cover at >70 sites along >1000km of Australia's Queensland coast from 2002 to 2015. This paper quantifies the accuracy, precision and power of RCA benthic composition data, to guide its application and interpretation. A simulation study established that the inherent accuracy of the Reef Check point sampling protocol is high (<±7% error absolute), in the range of estimates of benthic cover from 1% to 50%. A field study at three reef sites indicated that, despite minor observer- and deployment-related biases, the protocol does reliably document moderate ecological changes in coral communities. The error analyses were then used to guide the interpretation of inter-annual variability and long term trends at three study sites in RCA's major 2002-2015 data series for the Queensland coast.

  1. The application of risk-adjusted control charts using the Paediatric Index of Mortality 2 for monitoring paediatric intensive care performance in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Baghurst, Peter A; Norton, Lynda; Slater, Anthony

    2008-07-01

    To assess the applicability of risk-adjusted sequential control charts using the Paediatric Index of Mortality version 2 for monitoring of the quality of paediatric intensive care. Observational study. A registry of patient admissions to paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in Australia and New Zealand. A total of 10,710 patients admitted to eight PICUs during a 24-month period. A series of risk-adjusted control charts was created for each PICU. Modified sequential probability ratio tests were used to test the hypothesis that the PICUs being monitored were 'out of control', where loss of control was arbitrarily defined as the odds of death exceeding twice the odds of dying as estimated by PIM2. In 24 months of monitoring, there was one alarm signal, suggesting the odds of deaths had doubled, and there was one signal, in another PICU, suggesting the odds of death had halved. The major advantage of risk-adjusted sequential control charts is that the technique allows unit performance to be monitored continuously over time, rather than intermittently, with the aim of rapidly detecting a change in performance as soon as possible after it occurs. This technique is suitable for continuously screening for a change in outcome within a PICU over time and complements other methods of monitoring the quality of paediatric intensive care.

  2. A summary of fault modelling and predictive health monitoring of rolling element bearings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Thalji, Idriss; Jantunen, Erkki

    2015-08-01

    The rolling element bearing is one of the most critical components that determine the machinery health and its remaining lifetime in modern production machinery. Robust Predictive Health Monitoring tools are needed to guarantee the healthy state of rolling element bearing s during the operation. A Predictive Health Monitoring tool indicates the upcoming failures which provide sufficient lead time for maintenance planning. The Predictive Health Monitoring tool aims to monitor the deterioration i.e. wear evolution rather than just detecting the defects. The Predictive Health Monitoring procedures contain detection, diagnosis and prognosis analysis, which are required to extract the features related to the faulty rolling element bearing and estimate the remaining useful lifetime. The purpose of this study is to review the Predictive Health Monitoring methods and explore their capabilities, advantages and disadvantage in monitoring rolling element bearings. Therefore, the study provides a critical review of the Predictive Health Monitoring methods of the entire defect evolution process i.e. over the whole lifetime and suggests enhancements for rolling element bearing monitoring.

  3. The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Saville, Benjamin R; Connor, Jason T; Ayers, Gregory D; Alvarez, JoAnn

    2014-08-01

    Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision-making process. © The Author(s), 2014.

  4. The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials

    PubMed Central

    Connor, Jason T.; Ayers, Gregory D; Alvarez, JoAnn

    2014-01-01

    Background Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. Purpose We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. Results For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Limitations Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. Conclusions The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision making process. PMID:24872363

  5. Application of GNSS-RTK derived topographical maps for rapid environmental monitoring: a case study of Jack Finnery Lake (Perth, Australia).

    PubMed

    Schloderer, Glen; Bingham, Matthew; Awange, Joseph L; Fleming, Kevin M

    2011-09-01

    In environmental monitoring, environmental impact assessments and environmental audits, topographical maps play an essential role in providing a means by which the locations of sampling sites may be selected, in assisting with the interpretation of physical features, and in indicating the impact or potential impact on an area due to changes in the system being monitored (e.g., spatially changing features such as wetlands). Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are hereby presented as a rapid method for monitoring spatial changes to support environmental monitoring decisions and policies. To validate the GNSS-based method, a comparison is made of results from a small-scale topographic survey using radio-based real-time kinematic GNSS (GNSS-RTK) and total station survey methods at Jack Finnery Lake, Perth, Australia. The accuracies achieved by the total station in this study were 2 cm horizontally and 6 cm vertically, while the GNSS-RTK also achieved an accuracy of 2 cm horizontally, but only 28 cm vertically. While the GNSS-RTK measurements were less accurate in the height component compared to those from the total station method, it is still capable of achieving accuracies sufficient for a topographic map at a scale of 1:1,750 that could support environmental monitoring tasks such as identifying spatial changes in small water bodies or wetlands. The time taken to perform the survey using GNSS-RTK, however, was much shorter compared to the total station method, thereby making it quite suitable for monitoring spatial changes within an environmental context, e.g., dynamic mining activities that require rapid surveys and the updating of the monitored data at regular intervals.

  6. Selecting optimum groundwater monitoring stations for earthquake observation and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, H.; Woo, N. C.

    2011-12-01

    In Korea, the National Groundwater Monitoring Network (NGMN), consisted of a total of 327 stations around the country up to date, has been established and operated to monitor the background level and quality of ground water since 1995. From some of the monitoring wells, we identified abnormal changes in groundwater due to earthquakes. Then, this project was initiated with the following objectives: a) to identify and characterize groundwater changes due to earthquakes from the NGMN wells, and b) to suggest groundwater monitoring wells that can be used as supplementary monitoring stations for present seismic network. To accomplish the objectives, we need to identify previous responding history of each well to the other earthquakes, and the well's hydrogeological setting. Groundwater responses to earthquake events are identified as the direction of water-level movement (rise/fall), the amount of absolute changes, and the time for recovery to the previous level. Then, the distribution of responded wells is analyzed for their locations with GIS tools. Finally, statistical analyses perform to identify the optimum monitoring stations, considering geological features and hydrogeological settings of the stations and the earthquake epicenters. In this presentation, we report the results of up-to-date study as a part of the above-mentioned program.

  7. Prediction monitoring and evaluation program; a progress report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunter, R.N.; Derr, J.S.

    1978-01-01

    As part of an attempt to separate useful predictions from inaccurate guesses, we have kept score on earthquake predictions from all sources brought to our attention over the past year and a half. The program was outlined in "Earthquake Prediction;Fact and Fallacy" by Roger N. Hunter (Earthquake Information Bulletin, vol. 8, no. 5, September-October 1976, p. 24-25). The program attracted a great deal of public attention, and, as a result, our files now contain over 2500 predictions from more than 230 different people. 

  8. Community monitoring for youth violence surveillance: testing a prediction model.

    PubMed

    Henry, David B; Dymnicki, Allison; Kane, Candice; Quintana, Elena; Cartland, Jenifer; Bromann, Kimberly; Bhatia, Shaun; Wisnieski, Elise

    2014-08-01

    Predictive epidemiology is an embryonic field that involves developing informative signatures for disorder and tracking them using surveillance methods. Through such efforts assistance can be provided to the planning and implementation of preventive interventions. Believing that certain minor crimes indicative of gang activity are informative signatures for the emergence of serious youth violence in communities, in this study we aim to predict outbreaks of violence in neighborhoods from pre-existing levels and changes in reports of minor offenses. We develop a prediction equation that uses publicly available neighborhood-level data on disorderly conduct, vandalism, and weapons violations to predict neighborhoods likely to have increases in serious violent crime. Data for this study were taken from the Chicago Police Department ClearMap reporting system, which provided data on index and non-index crimes for each of the 844 Chicago census tracts. Data were available in three month segments for a single year (fall 2009, winter, spring, and summer 2010). Predicted change in aggravated battery and overall violent crime correlated significantly with actual change. The model was evaluated by comparing alternative models using randomly selected training and test samples, producing favorable results with reference to overfitting, seasonal variation, and spatial autocorrelation. A prediction equation based on winter and spring levels of the predictors had area under the curve ranging from .65 to .71 for aggravated battery, and .58 to .69 for overall violent crime. We discuss future development of such a model and its potential usefulness in violence prevention and community policing.

  9. Predicting Activity Energy Expenditure Using the Actical[R] Activity Monitor

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heil, Daniel P.

    2006-01-01

    This study developed algorithms for predicting activity energy expenditure (AEE) in children (n = 24) and adults (n = 24) from the Actical[R] activity monitor. Each participant performed 10 activities (supine resting, three sitting, three house cleaning, and three locomotion) while wearing monitors on the ankle, hip, and wrist; AEE was computed…

  10. Interactions of Team Mental Models and Monitoring Behaviors Predict Team Performance in Simulated Anesthesia Inductions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burtscher, Michael J.; Kolbe, Michaela; Wacker, Johannes; Manser, Tanja

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated how two team mental model properties (similarity vs. accuracy) and two forms of monitoring behavior (team vs. systems) interacted to predict team performance in anesthesia. In particular, we were interested in whether the relationship between monitoring behavior and team performance was moderated by team…

  11. Predictive monitoring for early detection of sepsis in neonatal ICU patients.

    PubMed

    Fairchild, Karen D

    2013-04-01

    Predictive monitoring is an exciting new field involving analysis of physiologic data to detect abnormal patterns associated with critical illness. The first example of predictive monitoring being taken from inception (proof of concept) to reality (demonstration of improved outcomes) is the use of heart rate characteristics (HRC) monitoring to detect sepsis in infants in the neonatal ICU. The commercially available 'HeRO' monitor analyzes electrocardiogram data from existing bedside monitors for decreased HR variability and transient decelerations associated with sepsis, and converts these changes into a score (the HRC index or HeRO score). This score is the fold increase in probability that a patient will have a clinical deterioration from sepsis within 24 h. This review focuses on HRC monitoring and discusses future directions in predictive monitoring of ICU patients. In a randomized trial of 3003 very low birthweight infants, display of the HeRO score reduced mortality more than 20%. Ongoing research aims to combine respiratory and HR analysis to optimize care of ICU patients. Predictive monitoring has recently been shown to save lives. Harnessing and analyzing the vast amounts of physiologic data constantly displayed in ICU patients will lead to improved algorithms for early detection, prognosis, and therapy of critical illnesses.

  12. Predicting Activity Energy Expenditure Using the Actical[R] Activity Monitor

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heil, Daniel P.

    2006-01-01

    This study developed algorithms for predicting activity energy expenditure (AEE) in children (n = 24) and adults (n = 24) from the Actical[R] activity monitor. Each participant performed 10 activities (supine resting, three sitting, three house cleaning, and three locomotion) while wearing monitors on the ankle, hip, and wrist; AEE was computed…

  13. Interactions of Team Mental Models and Monitoring Behaviors Predict Team Performance in Simulated Anesthesia Inductions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burtscher, Michael J.; Kolbe, Michaela; Wacker, Johannes; Manser, Tanja

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated how two team mental model properties (similarity vs. accuracy) and two forms of monitoring behavior (team vs. systems) interacted to predict team performance in anesthesia. In particular, we were interested in whether the relationship between monitoring behavior and team performance was moderated by team…

  14. Northern Australia

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-16

    ... supplies water for the Ord River Irrigation Area and the town of Kununurra (pop. 6500) just to the north. At the top is the southern ... inlet at the left is Cambridge Gulf, the location of the town of Wyndham (pop. 850), the port for this region. This area is sparsely ... Australia location:  Australia and New Zealand thumbnail:  ...

  15. Tectonic events, sequence stratigraphy and prediction of petroleum play elements in the Cretaceous and Tertiary of the northern Carnarvon Basin, north west shelf, Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Romine, K.K.; Durrant, J.D.

    1996-12-31

    The Carnarvon Basin is one of Australia`s most prolific oil and gas provinces. A recent Paleocene discovery has initiated a shift in exploration interest from traditional Jurassic/Triassic plays to the younger Cretaceous and Tertiary section. To improve play element prediction, a sequence stratigraphic study has been completed, utilizing newly acquired, regional high-resolution seismic data and 80 wells. The occurrence and distribution of the key play elements, reservoir, source and seal, is controlled by the interaction of tectonic subsidence, eustasy and paleogeography, with traps and migration pathways set up and modified by regional tectonic events. For example, a major rifting event commenced in the latest Kimmeridgian-Tithonian that resulted in structuring of older Jurassic sediments and initiation of seafloor spreading in the adjacent Cuvier-Gascoyne Abyssal Plain in the Valanginian. This event was accompanied by a dramatic fall in eustasy that initiated the deposition of high-quality reservoir sandstones of the Tithonian-Valanginian age Barrow Delta. The post-rift phase of thermal cooling and rapid subsidence resulted in transgression, accompanied by deposition of backstepping parasequences of the Mardie Greensand, a potential thief zone and reservoir, and culminated in maximum transgression and deposition of seal and source facies of the Muclerong Shale. The improved sequence stratigraphic framework established in this study provides a predictive tool for the development and assessment of new plays.

  16. EPA perspective - exposure and effects prediction and monitoring

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk-based decisions for environmental chemicals often rely on estimates of human exposure and biological response. Biomarkers have proven a useful empirical tool for evaluating exposure and hazard predictions. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Preventio...

  17. EPA perspective - exposure and effects prediction and monitoring

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk-based decisions for environmental chemicals often rely on estimates of human exposure and biological response. Biomarkers have proven a useful empirical tool for evaluating exposure and hazard predictions. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Preventio...

  18. Earth Rotation Monitoring, UT1 Determinaiton and Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-20

    article. 2011 Metrologia 48 S165 (http://iopscience.iop.org/0026-1394/48/4/S06) Download details: IP Address: 138.162.8.57 The article was downloaded...unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Metrologia 48 (2011) S165?S170 14. ABSTRACT Monitoring the Earth?s rotation angle is essential in various domains...ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 IOP PUBLISHING METROLOGIA Metrologia 48

  19. Surveillance of Space in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newsam, G.

    operating in stations at Yarragadee, Western Australia and Mt Stromlo, Australian Capital Territory. Recently, however, Australia has also agreed to host a node of AFRL's Extended HANDS telescope network in Learmonth, Western Australia, and discussions are underway with researchers in Australian academia about also participating in this research program. In the RF regime, however, DSTO has substantial HF and microwave radar programs, elements of which could be readily adapted to surveillance of space. Proposals have already been developed internally within both programs for various forms of space surveillance systems including both broad area surveillance and imaging along with some very initial technology concept demonstrator systems. Recently proposals have also been floated to substantially increase Australia's civilian space surveillance programs including the Ionospheric Prediction Service's longstanding program to monitor the ionosphere and space weather, meteor radars and other systems. Finally Australia's bid to host the international Square Kilometre Array radio telescope has already generated concrete commitments to establish several very substantial RF arrays in Western Australia that may also provide instruments of unprecedented sensitivity and resolution for surveillance of space. The paper will survey these technology development programs and associated progress on integrating them into some sort of national program for space situational awareness.

  20. Monitoring the Immune Competence of Cancer Patients to Predict Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Serena; Kohrt, Holbrook; Maecker, Holden T.

    2014-01-01

    A new era of cancer immunotherapy has brought not only successful cancer vaccines but also immunomodulators, such as those that target checkpoint blockade in order to induce endogenous host immune responses. However, the immune system of cancer patients can be compromised through multiple means, including immune suppression by the tumor and by prior therapies such as chemotherapy and radiation. Therefore, a comprehensive means of assessing patient immunocompetence would seem helpful for determining whether patients are ready to benefit from immunotherapy, and perhaps even which immunotherapy might be most appropriate for them. Unfortunately, there are no standardized tests for immune competence, nor is there agreement on what to measure and what will be predictive of outcome. In this review, we will discuss the technologies and assays that might be most useful for this purpose. We argue for a comprehensive approach that should maximize the chances of developing predictive biomarkers for eventual clinical use. PMID:24487923

  1. Effect of broadcast baiting on abundance patterns of red imported fire ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and key local ant genera at long-term monitoring sites in Brisbane, Australia.

    PubMed

    McNaught, Melinda K; Wylie, F Ross; Harris, Evan J; Alston, Clair L; Burwell, Chris J; Jennings, Craig

    2014-08-01

    In 2001, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) was identified in Brisbane, Australia. An eradication program involving broadcast bait treatment with two insect growth regulators and a metabolic inhibitor began in September of that year and is currently ongoing. To gauge the impacts of these treatments on local ant populations, we examined long-term monitoring data and quantified abundance patterns of S. invicta and common local ant genera using a linear mixed-effects model. For S. invicta, presence in pitfalls reduced over time to zero on every site. Significantly higher numbers of S. invicta workers were collected on high-density polygyne sites, which took longer to disinfest compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. For local ants, nine genus groups of the 10 most common genera analyzed either increased in abundance or showed no significant trend. Five of these genus groups were significantly less abundant at the start of monitoring on high-density polygyne sites compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. The genus Pheidole significantly reduced in abundance over time, suggesting that it was affected by treatment efforts. These results demonstrate that the treatment regime used at the time successfully removed S. invicta from these sites in Brisbane, and that most local ant genera were not seriously impacted by the treatment. These results have important implications for current and future prophylactic treatment efforts, and suggest that native ants remain in treated areas to provide some biological resistance to S. invicta.

  2. Excess seawater nutrients, enlarged algal symbiont densities and bleaching sensitive reef locations: 2. A regional-scale predictive model for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, Scott A; Heron, Scott F; Brodie, Jon E; Done, Terence J; Masiri, Itsara; Hinrichs, Saskia

    2017-01-15

    A spatial risk assessment model is developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia) that helps identify reef locations at higher or lower risk of coral bleaching in summer heat-wave conditions. The model confirms the considerable benefit of discriminating nutrient-enriched areas that contain corals with enlarged (suboptimal) symbiont densities for the purpose of identifying bleaching-sensitive reef locations. The benefit of the new system-level understanding is showcased in terms of: (i) improving early-warning forecasts of summer bleaching risk, (ii) explaining historical bleaching patterns, (iii) testing the bleaching-resistant quality of the current marine protected area (MPA) network (iv) identifying routinely monitored coral health attributes, such as the tissue energy reserves and skeletal growth characteristics (viz. density and extension rates) that correlate with bleaching resistant reef locations, and (v) targeting region-specific water quality improvement strategies that may increase reef-scale coral health and bleaching resistance.

  3. Predicting and Monitoring Cancer Treatment Response with DW-MRI

    PubMed Central

    Thoeny, Harriet C.; Ross, Brian D.

    2010-01-01

    An imaging biomarker that would provide for an early quantitative metric of clinical treatment response in cancer patients would provide for a paradigm shift in cancer care. Currently, non-image based clinical outcome metrics include morphology, clinical and laboratory parameters however, these are obtained relatively late following treatment. Diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) holds promise for use as a cancer treatment response biomarker as it is sensitive to macromolecular and microstructural changes which can occur at the cellular level earlier than anatomical changes during therapy. Studies have shown that successful treatment of a many tumor types can be detected using DW-MRI as an early increase in the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values. Additionally, low pre-treatment ADC values of various tumors are often predictive of better outcome. These capabilities, once validated, could provide for an important opportunity to individualize therapy thereby minimizing unnecessary systemic toxicity associated with ineffective therapies with the additional advantage of improving overall patient health care and associated costs. In this report, we provide a brief technical overview of DW-MRI acquisition protocols, quantitative image analysis approaches and review studies which have implemented DW-MRI for the purpose of early prediction of cancer treatment response. PMID:20575076

  4. Fluid bolus therapy: monitoring and predicting fluid responsiveness.

    PubMed

    Carsetti, Andrea; Cecconi, Maurizio; Rhodes, Andrew

    2015-10-01

    When a condition of hypoperfusion has been identified, clinicians must decide whether fluids may increase blood flow or whether other therapeutic approaches are needed. For this purpose, several tests and parameters have been introduced in clinical practice to predict fluid responsiveness and guide therapy. Fluid challenge is the gold standard test to assess the preload dependence of the patients. Moreover, several parameters and tests avoiding fluid administration are now available. Pulse pressure variation and stroke volume variation are based on heart-lung interaction and can be used to assess fluid responsiveness. These parameters have several limitations and can really be used in a limited number of critically ill patients. End-expiratory occlusion test and passive leg raising have been proposed to overcome these limitations. The aim of resuscitation is to increase blood flow and perfusion pressure. Dynamic arterial elastance has been recently proposed to predict the pressure response after fluid challenge in preload-dependent patients. Finally, the effects of volume expansion of hemodynamic parameters do not necessarily reach the microcirculation, which should also be assessed. Nowadays, several parameters are available to assess fluid responsiveness. Clinicians need to know all of them, with their limitations, without forgetting that the final aim of all therapies is to improve the microcirculation.

  5. Coronas-F Orbit Monitoring and Re-Entry Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ivanov, N. M.; Kolyuka, Yu. F.; Afanasieva, T. I.; Gridchina, T. A.

    2007-01-01

    Russian scientific satellite CORONAS-F was launched on July, 31, 2001. The object was inserted in near-circular orbit with the inclination 82.5deg and a mean altitude approx. 520 km. Due to the upper atmosphere drag CORONAS-F was permanently descended and as a result on December, 6, 2005 it has finished the earth-orbital flight, having lifetime in space approx. 4.5 years. The satellite structural features and its flight attitude control led to the significant variations of its ballistic coefficient during the flight. It was a cause of some specific difficulties in the fulfillment of the ballistic and navigation support of this space vehicle flight. Besides the main mission objective CORONAS-F also has been selected by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) as a target object for the next regular international re-entry test campaign on a program of surveillance and re-entry prediction for the hazard space objects within their de-orbiting phases. Spacecraft (S/C) CORONAS-F kept its working state right up to the end of the flight - down to the atmosphere entry. This fact enabled to realization of the additional research experiments, concerning with an estimation of the atmospheric density within the low earth orbits (LEO) of the artificial satellites, and made possible to continue track the S/C during final phase of its flight by means of Russian regular command & tracking system, used for it control. Thus there appeared a unique possibility of using for tracking S/C at its de-orbiting phase not only passive radar facilities, belonging to the space surveillance systems and traditionally used for support of the IADC re-entry test campaigns, but also more precise active trajectory radio-tracking facilities from the ground control complex (GCC) applied for this object. Under the corresponding decision of the Russian side such capability of additional high-precise tracking control of the CORONAS-F flight in this period of time has been implemented

  6. Current status of therapeutic drug monitoring in Australia and New Zealand: a need for improved assay evaluation, best practice guidelines, and professional development.

    PubMed

    Norris, Ross L; Martin, Jennifer H; Thompson, Erin; Ray, John E; Fullinfaw, Robert O; Joyce, David; Barras, Michael; Jones, Graham R; Morris, Raymond G

    2010-10-01

    The measurement of drug concentrations, for clinical purposes, occurs in many diagnostic laboratories throughout Australia and New Zealand. However, the provision of a comprehensive therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) service requires the additional elements of pre- and postanalytical advice to ensure that concentrations reported are meaningful, interpretable, and clinically applicable to the individual patient. The aim of this project was to assess the status of TDM services in Australia and New Zealand. A range of professions involved in key aspects of TDM was surveyed by questionnaire in late 2007. Information gathered included: the list of drugs assayed; analytical methods used; interpretation services offered; interpretative methods used; and further monitoring advice provided. Fifty-seven responses were received, of which 42% were from hospitals (public and/or private); 11% a hospital (public and/or private) and pathology provider; and 47% a pathology provider only (public and/or private). Results showed that TDM is applied to a large number of different drugs. Poorly performing assay methods were used in some cases, even when published guidelines recommended alternative practices. Although there was a wide array of assays available, the evidence suggested a need for better selection of assay methods. In addition, only limited advice and/or interpretation of results was offered. Of concern, less than 50% of those providing advice on aminoglycoside dosing in adults used pharmacokinetic tools with six of 37 (16.2%) respondents using Bayesian pharmacokinetic tools, the method recommended in the Australian Therapeutic Guidelines: Antibiotic. In conclusion, the survey highlighted deficiencies in the provision of TDM services, in particular assay method selection and both quality and quantity of postanalytical advice. A range of recommendations, some of which may have international implications, are discussed. There is a need to include measures of impact on clinical

  7. Adverse events following immunisation with bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination: baseline data to inform monitoring in Australia following introduction of new unregistered BCG vaccine.

    PubMed

    Hendry, Alexandra J; Dey, Aditi; Beard, Frank H; Khandaker, Gulam; Hill, Richard; Macartney, Kristine K

    2016-12-24

    In recent years there has been a global shortage of bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine and, from September 2012, unregistered vaccines have needed to be used in Australia (a Danish product initially until the end of 2015, and a Polish product used in some jurisdictions from early 2016). We examined rates and types of adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) with BCG vaccine reported to the Therapeutic Goods Administration between 2009 and 2014 in children aged less than 7 years. Reporting rates of AEFI with BCG vaccine increased from 87 per 100,000 doses (registered Sanofi Pasteur product) in 2009 to 201 per 100,000 doses (unregistered Danish Statens Serum Institute product) in 2014, with Victoria having the highest rate each year. Substantial variation between jurisdictions exists, suggesting differential reporting of BCG vaccine doses administered and/or BCG vaccine-related AEFI. The most commonly reported reactions were abscess (31%), injection site reaction (27%) and lymphadenopathy/lymphadenitis (17%). This study provides baseline data on BCG vaccine safety to inform surveillance. Given the current use of unregistered vaccines in the context of vaccine supply issues, improved recording of both administered BCG vaccine doses and the reporting of BCG vaccine-related AEFI are required to facilitate close monitoring of vaccine safety.

  8. Predictive monitoring for sepsis and necrotizing enterocolitis to prevent shock.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Brynne A; Fairchild, Karen D

    2015-08-01

    Despite vigilant clinical assessment of infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), diagnosis of sepsis and necrotizing enterocolitis often does not occur until an infant has significant hemodynamic compromise. Predictive monitoring involves analysis of vital signs and other clinical data to identify infants at highest risk and to detect early-stage illness, leading to timelier treatment and improved outcomes. The first vital-sign predictive monitoring device developed for sepsis detection in babies in the NICU is the heart rate characteristics index (HeRO) monitor, which continuously analyzes the electrocardiogram signal for low heart rate variability and transient decelerations. Use of this monitor in very low birth weight infants (<1500 g) was shown in a large multicenter randomized clinical trial to significantly reduce mortality. The purpose of this review is (1) to summarize the physiologic changes in neonatal sepsis and progression to shock, (2) to review efforts toward risk stratification for sepsis shortly after birth based on demographic and physiologic scoring systems, (3) to describe development and implementation of heart rate characteristics monitoring and other important aspects of sepsis early warning systems, and (4) to provide an overview of current research analyzing multiple vital signs and other clinical variables in an attempt to develop even more effective predictive monitoring devices and systems.

  9. Monitoring of Physiological Parameters to Predict Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Al Rajeh, Ahmed M.; Hurst, John R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The value of monitoring physiological parameters to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations is controversial. A few studies have suggested benefit from domiciliary monitoring of vital signs, and/or lung function but there is no existing systematic review. Objectives: To conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of monitoring physiological parameters to predict COPD exacerbation. Methods: An electronic systematic search compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines was conducted. The search was updated to April 6, 2016. Five databases were examined: Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, or MEDLARS Online (Medline), Excerpta Medica dataBASE (Embase), Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED), Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and the Cochrane clinical trials database. Results: Sixteen articles met the pre-specified inclusion criteria. Fifteen of these articules reported positive results in predicting COPD exacerbation via monitoring of physiological parameters. Nine studies showed a reduction in peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2%) prior to exacerbation onset. Three studies for peak flow, and two studies for respiratory rate reported a significant variation prior to or at exacerbation onset. A particular challenge is accounting for baseline heterogeneity in parameters between patients. Conclusion: There is currently insufficient information on how physiological parameters vary prior to exacerbation to support routine domiciliary monitoring for the prediction of exacerbations in COPD. However, the method remains promising. PMID:27897995

  10. Monitoring Central Venous Catheter Resistance to Predict Imminent Occlusion: A Prospective Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Joshua; Tang, Li; Rubnitz, Jeffrey E; Brennan, Rachel C; Shook, David R; Stokes, Dennis C; Monagle, Paul; Curtis, Nigel; Worth, Leon J; Allison, Kim; Sun, Yilun; Flynn, Patricia M

    2015-01-01

    Long-term central venous catheters are essential for the management of chronic medical conditions, including childhood cancer. Catheter occlusion is associated with an increased risk of subsequent complications, including bloodstream infection, venous thrombosis, and catheter fracture. Therefore, predicting and pre-emptively treating occlusions should prevent complications, but no method for predicting such occlusions has been developed. We conducted a prospective trial to determine the feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of catheter-resistance monitoring, a novel approach to predicting central venous catheter occlusion in pediatric patients. Participants who had tunneled catheters and were receiving treatment for cancer or undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation underwent weekly catheter-resistance monitoring for up to 12 weeks. Resistance was assessed by measuring the inline pressure at multiple flow-rates via a syringe pump system fitted with a pressure-sensing transducer. When turbulent flow through the device was evident, resistance was not estimated, and the result was noted as "non-laminar." Ten patients attended 113 catheter-resistance monitoring visits. Elevated catheter resistance (>8.8% increase) was strongly associated with the subsequent development of acute catheter occlusion within 10 days (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-21.5; p <0.01; sensitivity, 75%; specificity, 67%). A combined prediction model comprising either change in resistance greater than 8.8% or a non-laminar result predicted subsequent occlusion (odds ratio = 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-22.8; p = 0.002; sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 63%). Participants rated catheter-resistance monitoring as highly acceptable. In this pediatric hematology and oncology population, catheter-resistance monitoring is feasible, acceptable, and predicts imminent catheter occlusion. Larger studies are required to validate these findings, assess the predictive value for

  11. Monitoring Central Venous Catheter Resistance to Predict Imminent Occlusion: A Prospective Pilot Study

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Joshua; Tang, Li; Rubnitz, Jeffrey E.; Brennan, Rachel C.; Shook, David R.; Stokes, Dennis C.; Monagle, Paul; Curtis, Nigel; Worth, Leon J.; Allison, Kim; Sun, Yilun; Flynn, Patricia M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Long-term central venous catheters are essential for the management of chronic medical conditions, including childhood cancer. Catheter occlusion is associated with an increased risk of subsequent complications, including bloodstream infection, venous thrombosis, and catheter fracture. Therefore, predicting and pre-emptively treating occlusions should prevent complications, but no method for predicting such occlusions has been developed. Methods We conducted a prospective trial to determine the feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of catheter-resistance monitoring, a novel approach to predicting central venous catheter occlusion in pediatric patients. Participants who had tunneled catheters and were receiving treatment for cancer or undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation underwent weekly catheter-resistance monitoring for up to 12 weeks. Resistance was assessed by measuring the inline pressure at multiple flow-rates via a syringe pump system fitted with a pressure-sensing transducer. When turbulent flow through the device was evident, resistance was not estimated, and the result was noted as “non-laminar.” Results Ten patients attended 113 catheter-resistance monitoring visits. Elevated catheter resistance (>8.8% increase) was strongly associated with the subsequent development of acute catheter occlusion within 10 days (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8–21.5; p <0.01; sensitivity, 75%; specificity, 67%). A combined prediction model comprising either change in resistance greater than 8.8% or a non-laminar result predicted subsequent occlusion (odds ratio = 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.0–22.8; p = 0.002; sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 63%). Participants rated catheter-resistance monitoring as highly acceptable. Conclusions In this pediatric hematology and oncology population, catheter-resistance monitoring is feasible, acceptable, and predicts imminent catheter occlusion. Larger studies are required to validate

  12. The Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS): Overview and Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Hao, Z.; Farahmand, A.; Nakhjiri, N.

    2013-12-01

    Development of reliable monitoring and prediction indices and tools are fundamental to drought preparedness and management. Motivated by the Global Drought Information Systems (GDIS) activities, this paper presents the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which provides near real-time drought information using both remote sensing observations and model simulations. The monthly data from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Land), North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), and remotely sensed precipitation data are used as input to GIDMaPS. Numerous indices have been developed for drought monitoring based on various indicator variables (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, water storage). Defining droughts based on a single variable (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture or runoff) may not be sufficient for reliable risk assessment and decision making. GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. In other words, MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions for overall characterization of droughts. The seasonal prediction component of GIDMaPS is based on a persistence model which requires historical data and near-past observations. The seasonal drought prediction component is based on two input data sets (MERRA and NLDAS) and three drought indicators (SPI, SSI and MSDI). The drought prediction model provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from several major droughts including the 2013 Namibia, 2012-2013 United States, 2011-2012 Horn of Africa, and 2010 Amazon Droughts will be presented. The results indicate

  13. In Brief: Unlocking Australia's oil and gas reserves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-11-01

    A collaboration to unlock stranded offshore oil and gas reserves through improved underwater pipeline design was launched in Perth, Australia, on 31 October. Called the Wealth From Oceans National Research Flagship's Collaboration Cluster on Subsea Pipelines, the A$11 million program brings together the research capabilities of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and six universities. With more than 80% of Australia's gas resources likely lying as far as 300 kilometers offshore at a depth greater than 1 kilometer, Flagship director Kate Wilson said that realizing the full potential of these resources requires developing economically viable and environmentally sound transportation technologies. ``Projects will investigate seabed characterization and morphology, structural integrity, pipeline monitoring, geohazards, and full-life reliability. This will involve everything from sophisticated computer modeling and seafloor movement prediction to understanding tsunami effects and exploring the use of autonomous underwater and remotely operated vehicles.''

  14. Intelligent real-time performance monitoring and quality prediction for batch/fed-batch cultivations.

    PubMed

    Undey, Cenk; Tatara, Eric; Cinar, Ali

    2004-02-19

    Supervision of batch bioprocess operations in real-time during the progress of a batch run offers many advantages over end-of-batch quality control. Multivariate statistical techniques such as multiway partial least squares (MPLS) provide an efficient modeling and supervision framework. A new type of MPLS modeling technique that is especially suitable for online real-time process monitoring and the multivariate monitoring charts are presented. This online process monitoring technique is also extended to include predictions of end-of-batch quality measurements during the progress of a batch run. Process monitoring, quality estimation and fault diagnosis activities are automated and supervised by embedding them into a real-time knowledge-based system (RTKBS). Interpretation of multivariate charts is also automated through a generic rule-base for efficient alarm handling. The integrated RTKBS and the implementation of MPLS-based process monitoring and quality control are illustrated using a fed-batch penicillin production benchmark process simulator.

  15. Improving Multi-Sensor Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Recovery Assessment Using Gravimetry Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.

    2015-04-01

    Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions and provides composite multi-index drought information for overall characterization of droughts. GIDMaPS includes a seasonal prediction component based on a statistical persistence-based approach. The prediction component of GIDMaPS provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation we present a new component in which the drought prediction information based on SPI, SSI and MSDI are conditioned on equivalent water height obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Using a Bayesian approach, GRACE information is used to evaluate persistence of drought. Finally, the deficit equivalent water height based on GRACE is used for assessing drought recovery. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from 2014

  16. Monitoring and management of streambank erosion and natural revegetation on the lower Gordon River, Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradbury, Jason; Cullen, Phillip; Dixon, Grant; Pemberton, Michael

    1995-03-01

    The wash from high-speed tourist cruise launches causes erosion of the formerly stable banks of the lower Gordon River within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. Speed and access restrictions on the operation of commercial cruise vessels have considerably slowed, but not halted erosion, which continues on the now destabilized banks. To assess the effectiveness of restrictions, bank erosion and natural revegetation are monitored at 48 sites using erosion pins, survey transects, and vegetation quadrats. The subjectively chosen sites are grouped on the basis of geomorphology and bank materials. The mean measured rate of erosion of estuarine banks slowed from 210 to 19 mm/year with the introduction of a 9 knot speed limit. In areas where cruise vessels continue to operate, alluvial banks were eroded at a mean rate of 11 mm/yr during the three-year period of the current management regime. Very similar alluvial banks no longer subject to commercial cruise boat traffic eroded at the slower mean rate of 3 mm/yr. Sandy levee banks have retreated an estimated maximum 10 m during the last 10-15 years. The mean rate of bank retreat slowed from 112 to 13 mm/yr with the exclusion of cruise vessels from the leveed section of the river. Revegetation of the eroded banks is proceeding slowly; however, since the major bank colonizers are very slow growing tree species, it is likely to be decades until revegetation can contribute substantially to bank stability.

  17. Efficacy of monitoring and empirical predictive modeling at improving public health protection at Chicago beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nevers, Meredith B.; Whitman, Richard L.

    2011-01-01

    Efforts to improve public health protection in recreational swimming waters have focused on obtaining real-time estimates of water quality. Current monitoring techniques rely on the time-intensive culturing of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) from water samples, but rapidly changing FIB concentrations result in management errors that lead to the public being exposed to high FIB concentrations (type II error) or beaches being closed despite acceptable water quality (type I error). Empirical predictive models may provide a rapid solution, but their effectiveness at improving health protection has not been adequately assessed. We sought to determine if emerging monitoring approaches could effectively reduce risk of illness exposure by minimizing management errors. We examined four monitoring approaches (inactive, current protocol, a single predictive model for all beaches, and individual models for each beach) with increasing refinement at 14 Chicago beaches using historical monitoring and hydrometeorological data and compared management outcomes using different standards for decision-making. Predictability (R2) of FIB concentration improved with model refinement at all beaches but one. Predictive models did not always reduce the number of management errors and therefore the overall illness burden. Use of a Chicago-specific single-sample standard-rather than the default 235 E. coli CFU/100 ml widely used-together with predictive modeling resulted in the greatest number of open beach days without any increase in public health risk. These results emphasize that emerging monitoring approaches such as empirical models are not equally applicable at all beaches, and combining monitoring approaches may expand beach access.

  18. Efficacy of monitoring and empirical predictive modeling at improving public health protection at Chicago beaches.

    PubMed

    Nevers, Meredith B; Whitman, Richard L

    2011-02-01

    Efforts to improve public health protection in recreational swimming waters have focused on obtaining real-time estimates of water quality. Current monitoring techniques rely on the time-intensive culturing of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) from water samples, but rapidly changing FIB concentrations result in management errors that lead to the public being exposed to high FIB concentrations (type II error) or beaches being closed despite acceptable water quality (type I error). Empirical predictive models may provide a rapid solution, but their effectiveness at improving health protection has not been adequately assessed. We sought to determine if emerging monitoring approaches could effectively reduce risk of illness exposure by minimizing management errors. We examined four monitoring approaches (inactive, current protocol, a single predictive model for all beaches, and individual models for each beach) with increasing refinement at 14 Chicago beaches using historical monitoring and hydrometeorological data and compared management outcomes using different standards for decision-making. Predictability (R(2)) of FIB concentration improved with model refinement at all beaches but one. Predictive models did not always reduce the number of management errors and therefore the overall illness burden. Use of a Chicago-specific single-sample standard-rather than the default 235 E. coli CFU/100 ml widely used-together with predictive modeling resulted in the greatest number of open beach days without any increase in public health risk. These results emphasize that emerging monitoring approaches such as empirical models are not equally applicable at all beaches, and combining monitoring approaches may expand beach access. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Drought: A comprehensive R package for drought monitoring, prediction and analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Cheng, Hongguang

    2015-04-01

    Drought may impose serious challenges to human societies and ecosystems. Due to complicated causing effects and wide impacts, a universally accepted definition of drought does not exist. The drought indicator is commonly used to characterize drought properties such as duration or severity. Various drought indicators have been developed in the past few decades for the monitoring of a certain aspect of drought condition along with the development of multivariate drought indices for drought characterizations from multiple sources or hydro-climatic variables. Reliable drought prediction with suitable drought indicators is critical to the drought preparedness plan to reduce potential drought impacts. In addition, drought analysis to quantify the risk of drought properties would provide useful information for operation drought managements. The drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis are important components in drought modeling and assessments. In this study, a comprehensive R package "drought" is developed to aid the drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis (available from R-Forge and CRAN soon). The computation of a suite of univariate and multivariate drought indices that integrate drought information from various sources such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff is available in the drought monitoring component in the package. The drought prediction/forecasting component consists of statistical drought predictions to enhance the drought early warning for decision makings. Analysis of drought properties such as duration and severity is also provided in this package for drought risk assessments. Based on this package, a drought monitoring and prediction/forecasting system is under development as a decision supporting tool. The package will be provided freely to the public to aid the drought modeling and assessment for researchers and practitioners.

  20. Categorical Drought Monitoring and Prediction in the United States Based on NLDAS-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Z.; Xia, Y.; Hao, F.; Singh, V. P.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is a pervasive natural hazard and is a billion-dollar disaster in the United States, which is comparable to hurricanes and tropical storms with greater economic impacts than extratropical storms, wildfires, blizzards, and ice storms combined. Drought early warning is of critical importance for drought preparedness planning and mitigation efforts to reduce potential impacts of drought, for which drought monitoring and prediction are the essential components. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has been widely used to track droughts and their impacts. USDM is a composite product that blends quantitative drought indicators and qualitative drought information from multiple sources and classifies drought conditions into different drought categories. Due to the wide application of USDM products, drought monitoring and prediction in the categorical form would be of great importance to aid decision makers to take appropriate measures for drought managements. Based on drought indices from North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2), this study proposes a statistical method for the categorical drought monitoring and prediction in the United States. The probabilities of drought conditions falling into different USDM drought categories can be estimated from the proposed method. The method is found to satisfactorily reconstruct historical USDM drought categories and predict future USDM drought categories, and has considerable potential to aid early drought warning in the United States.

  1. Predicting High Risk Adolescents' Substance Use over Time: The Role of Parental Monitoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Heddy Kovach; Shamblen, Stephen R.; Ringwalt, Chris L.; Hanley, Sean

    2012-01-01

    We examined whether parental monitoring at baseline predicted subsequent substance use in a high-risk youth population. Students in 14 alternative high schools in Washington State completed self-report surveys at three time points over the course of 2 years. Primary analyses included 1,423 students aged 14-20 who lived with at least one parent or…

  2. Improving flood prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture in poorly monitored catchments

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Flood prediction in poorly monitored catchments is among the greatest challenges faced by hydrologists. To address this challenge, an increasing number of studies in the last decade have explored methods to integrate various existing observations from ground and satellites. One approach in particula...

  3. Predicting Kindergarteners' Response to Early Reading Intervention: An Examination of Progress-Monitoring Measures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oslund, Eric L.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Taylor, Aaron B.; Simmons, Deborah C.; Simmons, Leslie; Kwok, Oi-Man; Johnson, Caitlin; Coyne, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of combinations of progress-monitoring measures: (a) curriculum-embedded phonemic awareness and alphabetic/decoding measures, and (b) Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS; Good & Kaminski, 2002) nonsense word fluency and phoneme segmentation fluency on reading outcomes of…

  4. Predicting High Risk Adolescents' Substance Use over Time: The Role of Parental Monitoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Heddy Kovach; Shamblen, Stephen R.; Ringwalt, Chris L.; Hanley, Sean

    2012-01-01

    We examined whether parental monitoring at baseline predicted subsequent substance use in a high-risk youth population. Students in 14 alternative high schools in Washington State completed self-report surveys at three time points over the course of 2 years. Primary analyses included 1,423 students aged 14-20 who lived with at least one parent or…

  5. Predictability and context determine differences in conflict monitoring between adolescence and adulthood.

    PubMed

    Chmielewski, Witold X; Roessner, Veit; Beste, Christian

    2015-10-01

    The ability to link contextual information to actions is an important aspect of conflict monitoring and response selection. These mechanisms depend on medial prefrontal networks. Although these areas undergo a protracted development from adolescence to adulthood, it has remained elusive how the influence of contextual information on conflict monitoring is modulated between adolescence and adulthood. Using event-related potentials (ERPs) and source localization techniques we show that the ability to link contextual information to actions is altered and that the predictability of upcoming events is an important factor to consider in this context. In adolescents, conflict monitoring functions are not as much modulated by predictability factors as in adults. It seems that adults exhibit a stronger anticipation of upcoming events than adolescents. This results in disadvantages for adults when the upcoming context is not predictable. In adolescents, problems to predict upcoming events therefore turn out to be beneficial. Two cognitive-neurophysiological factors are important for this: The first factor is related to altered conflict monitoring functions associated with modulations of neural activity in the medial frontal cortex. The second factor is related to altered perceptual processing of target stimuli associated with modulations of neural activity in parieto-occipital areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Monitoring western spruce budworm with pheromone- baited sticky traps to predict subsequent defoliation

    Treesearch

    Christine G. Niwa; David L. Overhulser

    2015-01-01

    A detailed procedure is described for monitoring western spruce budworm with pheromone-baited sticky traps and interpreting the results to predict defoliation the following year. Information provided includes timing of the survey, how to obtain traps and baits, how many traps are needed, trap assembly, field placement of traps, and how to evaluate the catches.

  7. Early behavioral inhibition and increased error monitoring predict later social phobia symptoms in childhood.

    PubMed

    Lahat, Ayelet; Lamm, Connie; Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; Pine, Daniel S; Henderson, Heather A; Fox, Nathan A

    2014-04-01

    Behavioral inhibition (BI) is an early childhood temperament characterized by fearful responses to novelty and avoidance of social interactions. During adolescence, a subset of children with stable childhood BI develop social anxiety disorder and concurrently exhibit increased error monitoring. The current study examines whether increased error monitoring in 7-year-old, behaviorally inhibited children prospectively predicts risk for symptoms of social phobia at age 9 years. A total of 291 children were characterized on BI at 24 and 36 months of age. Children were seen again at 7 years of age, when they performed a Flanker task, and event-related potential (ERP) indices of response monitoring were generated. At age 9, self- and maternal-report of social phobia symptoms were obtained. Children high in BI, compared to those low in BI, displayed increased error monitoring at age 7, as indexed by larger (i.e., more negative) error-related negativity (ERN) amplitudes. In addition, early BI was related to later childhood social phobia symptoms at age 9 among children with a large difference in amplitude between ERN and correct-response negativity (CRN) at age 7. Heightened error monitoring predicts risk for later social phobia symptoms in children with high BI. Research assessing response monitoring in children with BI may refine our understanding of the mechanisms underlying risk for later anxiety disorders and inform prevention efforts. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

  8. Reducing the predictive uncertainty associated with groundwater management decision-making in the Perth regional aquifer system of Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siade, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    The Perth Regional Aquifer Model (PRAMS) framework has been used for about a decade now to evaluate the potential anthropogenic impacts associated with management decisions that affect Perth's groundwater resources. A great wealth of data, expertise and numerical analysis have gone into the development of PRAMS over the years. However, there has been little quantitative work conducted on systemically addressing the uncertainty in the model's structure and predictions. PRAMS is designed to make a variety of regional and local-scale predictions and, both the nature and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with these predictions can vary significantly. A primary prediction to be addressed using the PRAMS framework, will be the effects of various deep-aquifer groundwater management scenarios on both the environmental and social concerns surrounding the superficial aquifer, which supports sensitive wetlands, and the negative impacts of seawater intrusion into the deep aquifers. A particular model-structure component that greatly affects the predictions associated with deep-aquifer groundwater extraction is the characterization of the local fault structure, i.e., whether or not faults are acting as barriers to groundwater flow. Therefore, uncertainty in fault characterization can subsequently lead to significant predictive uncertainty. However, new observation data can be obtained to reduce this uncertainty. In this study, an experimental design methodology is employed to optimally acquire new observations of state in such a way as to maximize the information obtained about the hydraulic properties of faults. Various information criteria are employed to develop optimal locations of new observation wells. The A-optimality criterion was found to be the most effective for comparing sampling strategies given the design assumptions, which include the parameter sets employed, hydraulic forcing, temporal considerations, and the use of the existing observation network. A

  9. Predictive monitoring of mobile patients by combining clinical observations with data from wearable sensors.

    PubMed

    Clifton, Lei; Clifton, David A; Pimentel, Marco A F; Watkinson, Peter J; Tarassenko, Lionel

    2014-05-01

    The majority of patients in the hospital are ambulatory and would benefit significantly from predictive and personalized monitoring systems. Such patients are well suited to having their physiological condition monitored using low-power, minimally intrusive wearable sensors. Despite data-collection systems now being manufactured commercially, allowing physiological data to be acquired from mobile patients, little work has been undertaken on the use of the resultant data in a principled manner for robust patient care, including predictive monitoring. Most current devices generate so many false-positive alerts that devices cannot be used for routine clinical practice. This paper explores principled machine learning approaches to interpreting large quantities of continuously acquired, multivariate physiological data, using wearable patient monitors, where the goal is to provide early warning of serious physiological determination, such that a degree of predictive care may be provided. We adopt a one-class support vector machine formulation, proposing a formulation for determining the free parameters of the model using partial area under the ROC curve, a method arising from the unique requirements of performing online analysis with data from patient-worn sensors. There are few clinical evaluations of machine learning techniques in the literature, so we present results from a study at the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust devised to investigate the large-scale clinical use of patient-worn sensors for predictive monitoring in a ward with a high incidence of patient mortality. We show that our system can combine routine manual observations made by clinical staff with the continuous data acquired from wearable sensors. Practical considerations and recommendations based on our experiences of this clinical study are discussed, in the context of a framework for personalized monitoring.

  10. Queensland, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1994-09-30

    STS068-253-045 (30 September-11 October 1994) --- Forest fires in southeastern Queensland, Australia. The smoke is blowing to the east. This is the southeastern edge of the Darling Downs, a wheat-growing and sheep pasture region just west of the Great Dividing Range, southwest of Brisbane. An extensive summer drought made the forests of the range highly susceptible to wildfire.

  11. Southeastern Australia

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-16

    ... SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument onboard NASA's Terra satellite. The year 2002 was one of Australia's hottest and driest on record, ... These data products were generated from a portion of the imagery acquired during Terra orbits 14999 and 16858. The panels cover an area ...

  12. Tectonic events, sequence stratigraphy and prediction of petroleum play elements in the Cretaceous and Tertiary of the northern Carnarvon Basin, north west shelf, Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Romine, K.K. ); Durrant, J.D. )

    1996-01-01

    The Carnarvon Basin is one of Australia's most prolific oil and gas provinces. A recent Paleocene discovery has initiated a shift in exploration interest from traditional Jurassic/Triassic plays to the younger Cretaceous and Tertiary section. To improve play element prediction, a sequence stratigraphic study has been completed, utilizing newly acquired, regional high-resolution seismic data and 80 wells. The occurrence and distribution of the key play elements, reservoir, source and seal, is controlled by the interaction of tectonic subsidence, eustasy and paleogeography, with traps and migration pathways set up and modified by regional tectonic events. For example, a major rifting event commenced in the latest Kimmeridgian-Tithonian that resulted in structuring of older Jurassic sediments and initiation of seafloor spreading in the adjacent Cuvier-Gascoyne Abyssal Plain in the Valanginian. This event was accompanied by a dramatic fall in eustasy that initiated the deposition of high-quality reservoir sandstones of the Tithonian-Valanginian age Barrow Delta. The post-rift phase of thermal cooling and rapid subsidence resulted in transgression, accompanied by deposition of backstepping parasequences of the Mardie Greensand, a potential thief zone and reservoir, and culminated in maximum transgression and deposition of seal and source facies of the Muclerong Shale. The improved sequence stratigraphic framework established in this study provides a predictive tool for the development and assessment of new plays.

  13. Predictive based monitoring of nuclear plant component degradation using support vector regression

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, Vivek; Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.

    2015-02-01

    Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are large installations comprised of many active and passive assets. Degradation monitoring of all these assets is expensive (labor cost) and highly demanding task. In this paper a framework based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for online surveillance of critical parameter degradation of NPP components is proposed. In this case, on time replacement or maintenance of components will prevent potential plant malfunctions, and reduce the overall operational cost. In the current work, we apply SVR equipped with a Gaussian kernel function to monitor components. Monitoring includes the one-step-ahead prediction of the component’s respective operational quantity using the SVR model, while the SVR model is trained using a set of previous recorded degradation histories of similar components. Predictive capability of the model is evaluated upon arrival of a sensor measurement, which is compared to the component failure threshold. A maintenance decision is based on a fuzzy inference system that utilizes three parameters: (i) prediction evaluation in the previous steps, (ii) predicted value of the current step, (iii) and difference of current predicted value with components failure thresholds. The proposed framework will be tested on turbine blade degradation data.

  14. A Study Protocol for the Australasian Oncofertility Registry: Monitoring Referral Patterns and the Uptake, Quality, and Complications of Fertility Preservation Strategies in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Anazodo, Antoinette C; Stern, Catharyn J; McLachlan, Robert I; Gerstl, Brigitte; Agresta, Franca; Cohn, Richard J; Jayasinghe, Yasmin; Wakefield, Claire E; Daly, Genevieve; Chan, Daisy; Gilbert, Lorrae; Kemertzis, Matthew; Orme, Lisa M; Wand, Handan; Viney, Rosalie; Gillam, Lynn; Deans, Rebecca; Jetti, Murali; Wu, John; Chapman, Michael; Ledger, William; Sullivan, Elizabeth A

    2016-09-01

    Improvements in cancer diagnosis and treatment in patients of a reproductive age have led to significant improvements in survival rates; however, a patient's fertility can be affected by both cancer and its treatment. As survival rates improve, there is an expectation by clinicians and patients that patient's reproductive potential should be considered and protected as much as possible. However, there is a lack of data about current fertility preservation (FP) uptake as well as accurate data on the acute or permanent reproductive risks of cancer treatment, complications of FP in cancer patients, and the use and success of assisted reproductive technology by cancer survivors. FP remains a major gap in acute cancer management with lifelong implications for cancer survivors. The FUTuRE Fertility research team has established the first binational multisite Australasian Oncofertility Registry, which is collecting a complete oncofertility data set from cancer and fertility centers in Australia and New Zealand. Outcomes from the research study will monitor referral, uptake, and complications of FP, document patient's reproductive potential after treatment, and collect data on the use of assisted reproductive technology following cancer treatment. The data will be linked to other routine health and administrative data sets to allow for other research projects to be carried out. The changes in oncofertility care will be benchmarked against the Australasian Oncofertility Charter. The data will be used to develop evidence-based guidelines and resources, including development of accurate risk projections for patients' risk of infertility, allowing clinicians to make recommendations for FP or assisted reproductive technology. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Number-12615000221550.

  15. Attitudes, values, and socio-demographic characteristics that predict acceptance of genetic engineering and applications of new technology in Australia.

    PubMed

    Mohr, Philip; Harrison, Adam; Wilson, Carlene; Baghurst, Katrine I; Syrette, Julie

    2007-09-01

    Studies of community reactions to biotechnology and genetic engineering (GE), in particular, have identified a number of correlates of acceptance, including the field of application of a technology and various characteristics of the perceiver. Factor analysis of acceptability ratings (N=686) of 12 applications of new technologies revealed three factors, denoting medical, societal, and indulgent applications. Acceptability ratings of each application and of GE in principle were regressed onto 18 demographic, attitudinal, trust, and value variables previously identified as potential correlates of acceptance. Predictive profiles for acceptance of medical and societal applications were largely similar. General receptiveness toward science and technology was the primary predictor of GE acceptance and a major predictor of acceptance for each application area. Environmental concern and self-transcendent (e.g., pro-nature) values did not predict acceptance in any instance. Findings clarify considerations associated with acceptance of biotechnological innovations and support arguments against knowledge- and trust-deficit explanations of resistance to technology.

  16. Cave Monitoring to Determine the Controls on δ18O From a Modern Speleothem Record in Semi-arid SE Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markowska, M.; Baker, A.; Andersen, M. S.; Jex, C.; Cuthbert, M. O.; Rau, G. C.; Graham, P. W.; Rutlidge, H.; Marjo, C.; Treble, P. C.

    2015-12-01

    Cave monitoring provides a crucial link between hydrological and climate processes and how they may in turn effect speleothem δ18O calcite composition. This is particularly important in arid environments where potential evapotranspiration (PET) exceeds precipitation (P) and may dominate the δ18O signature. In this study we investigate climate-karst-cave interactions driving the δ18O variability in modern drip water samples from Cathedral Cave in semi-arid SE Australia and use this information to interpret a modern sub-annually resolved speleothem record. Over a two-year monitoring campaign we established that mean composition of δ18O in modern drip waters was enriched by up to 2.9‰, relative to the weighted mean annual rainfall. Furthermore, fluctuations in δ18O over time were controlled by two processes (1) evaporation in the unsaturated zone, resulting in heavier values, and (2) recharge during infiltration events, resulting in isotopically lighter values. Large soil moisture deficits in the soil zone must therefore be surpassed to initiate infiltration, resulting in relatively infrequent (0-3 per year) infiltration events. A series of infiltration experiments were conducted to elucidate water flow delivery mechanisms and water residence times. We found that the hydrological pathways and resulting mixing processes that occurred in the unsaturated zone determined the isotopic variability in the drip water δ18O between individual drip sites, and that potential storage in the unsaturated zone is generally greater than 6 months. We establish that the δ18O record in speleothems from this cave do not exclusively record rainfall composition or amount but are overlaid with an evaporative signal that is strongly affected by the time since the last infiltration event, local hydrogeology, cave climate and disequilibrium during calcite deposition. This hypothesis was tested by reconstructing the δ18O proxy record in a speleothem growing for ~50 years in the

  17. Dynamic monitoring and prediction of Dianchi Lake cyanobacteria outbreaks in the context of rapid urbanization.

    PubMed

    Luo, Yi; Yang, Kun; Yu, Zhenyu; Chen, Junyi; Xu, Yufei; Zhou, Xiaolu; Yang, Yang

    2017-02-01

    Water crises have been among the most serious environmental problems worldwide since the twenty-first century. A water crisis is marked by a severe shortage of water resources and deteriorating water quality. As an important component of water resources, lake water quality has deteriorated rapidly in the context of fast urbanization and climate change. This deterioration has altered the water ecosystem structure and influenced lake functionality. To curb these trends, various strategies and procedures have been used in many urban lakes. Among these procedures, accurate and responsive water environment monitoring is the basis of the forecasting and prevention of large-scale cyanobacteria outbreaks and improvement of water quality. To dynamically monitor and predict the outbreak of cyanobacteria in Dianchi Lake, in this study, wireless sensors networks (WSNs) and the geographic information system (GIS) are used to monitor water quality at the macro-scale and meso-scale. Historical, real-time water quality and weather condition data were collected, and a combination prediction model (adaptive grey model (AGM) and back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN)) was proposed. The correlation coefficient (R) of the simulation experiment reached 0.995. Moreover, we conducted an empirical experiment in Dianchi Lake, Yunnan, China using the proposed method. R was 0.93, and the predicting error was 4.77. The results of the experiment suggest that our model has good performance for water quality prediction and can forecast cyanobacteria outbreaks. This system provides responsive forewarning and data support for lake protection and pollution control.

  18. AusSCORE II in predicting 30-day mortality after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Billah, Baki; Huq, Molla M; Smith, Julian A; Sufi, Fahim; Tran, Lavinia; Shardey, Gilbert C; Reid, Christopher M

    2014-11-01

    To update the Australian System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (AusSCORE) model for operative estimation of 30-day mortality risk after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting in the Australian population. Data were collected by the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons registry from 2001 to 2011 in 25 hospitals. A total of 31,250 patients underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and the outcome was 30-day mortality. A total of 2154 (6.9%) patients had 1 or multiple missing values. Missing values were estimated assuming missing completely at random and logistic regression with a generalized estimating equation was used to address within-hospital variance. Bootstrapping methods were used to construct and validate the updated model (AusSCORE II). Also the model was validated on an out-of-creation sample of 4700 patients who underwent bypass surgery in 2012. The average age of the patients was 65.6±12.9 years and 78.6% were male. Thirteen variables were selected in the updated model. The bootstrap discrimination and calibration of the AusSCORE II was very good (receiver operating characteristics [ROC], 82.0%; slope calibration, 0.987). The overall observed/AusSCORE II predicted mortality was 1.63% compared with the original AusSCORE predicted mortality of 1.01%. The validation of the AusSCORE II on the out-of-sample data also showed a high performance of the model (ROC, 84.5%; Hosmer-Lemoshow P value, .7654). The AusSCORE II model provides improved prediction of 30-day mortality and successfully stratifies patient risk. The model will be useful to improve the preoperative consultation regarding risk stratification in terms of 30-day mortality. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Acute prediction of laryngeal outcome during thyroid surgery by electromyographic laryngeal monitoring.

    PubMed

    Pavier, Yoann; Saroul, Nicolas; Pereira, Bruno; Tauveron, Igor; Gilain, Laurent; Mom, Thierry

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the contribution of laryngeal intraoperative nerve monitoring (IONM) during thyroidectomy in predicting postoperative laryngeal mobility. Between 2009 and 2012, 127 patients underwent thyroidectomy, during which 216 recurrent laryngeal nerves were stimulated with suprathreshold stimulations. Laryngeal mobility was examined through direct laryngoscopy. Statistical analysis was performed to determine specificity, sensitivity, negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value (PPV), and a threshold value in order to define a intraoperative diagnostic test. Nine patients had a unilateral laryngeal palsy. No bilateral laryngeal palsy was observed. The threshold value to assure the postoperative laryngeal mobility is 280 μV. For this value, specificity was 94.06%, sensitivity 100%, NPV 100%, and PPV 47.83%. Laryngeal IONM can predict a favorable outcome of laryngeal mobility in cases in which the response exceeds 280 μV. Under this value, the risk of palsy is about 50% suggesting a staged surgery. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Towards actionable climate change science for S2S climate monitoring and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    A great need and challenge in the prediction and attribution of climate variability on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales is to identify and express the nonstationarity of S2S variability, originating from anthropogenic climate change, in a usable form. Much of actionable climate science is produced for much shorter timescales than climate change, such as subseasonal and seasonal monitoring and prediction of anomalous or extreme climate events; while much of the information from climate change science is imparted in forms that are not directly usable for S2S prediction or monitoring. Traditional analyses of both observations of S2S variability and S2S model predictions ignore the nonstationarity of the data over multiple decades, when expressing statistics of S2S events. The extensive body of knowledge on climate change impacts and the attribution of shorter timescale climate events, including extremes, should provide a pathway towards actionable climate change science for S2S climate variability. Methods of attribution of S2S climate events to climate change are advancing (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852), but when does such information change the actions of those addressing the impacts of S2S climate variability? Robust scientific attribution of S2S climate variability to climate change should not only provide information for adaptation to there occurrence in future decades, but should help improve the interpretation and response to current subseasonal and seasonal climate events and their prediction. We describe the potential form of actionable climate information on S2S timescales and what is needed to connect recent work on climate change attribution to S2S prediction and monitoring.

  1. MINErosion 3: A user friendly hillslope model for predicting erosion from steep post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    So, Hwat-Bing; Khalifa, Ashraf; Carroll, Chris; Yu, Bofu

    2010-05-01

    Open-cut coal mining in Central Queensland involves the breaking up of overburden that overlies the coal seams using explosives, followed by removal with draglines which results in the formation of extensive overburden spoil-piles with steep slopes at the angle of repose (approximately 75 % or 37o). These spoil-piles are found in long multiple rows, with heights of up to 60 or 70 m above the original landscapes. They are generally highly saline and dispersive and hence highly erosive. Legislation requires that these spoil-piles be rehabilitated into a stable self sustaining ecosystem with no off-site pollution. The first stage in the rehabilitation of these landscapes is the lowering of slopes to create a landscape that is stable against geotechnical failure and erosion. This is followed by revegetation generally with grasses as pioneer vegetation to further reduce erosion and a mixture of native shrubs and trees. Minimizing erosion and excessive on-site discharges of sediment into the working areas may result in the temporary cessation of mining operation with significant financial consequences, while off site discharges may breach the mining lease conditions. The average cost of rehabilitation is around 22,000 per ha. With more than 50,000 ha of such spoil-piles in Queensland at present, the total cost of rehabilitation facing the industry is very high. Most of this comprised the cost of reshaping the landscape, largely associated with the amount of material movement necessary to achieve the desired landscape. Since soil and spoil-piles vary greatly in their erodibilities, a reliable and accurate method is required to determine a cost effective combination of slope length, slope gradient and vegetation that will result in acceptable rates of erosion. A user friendly hillslope computer package MINErosion 3, was developed to predict potential erosion to select suitable combinations of landscape design parameters (slope gradient, slope length and vegetation cover

  2. Prediction of vertical gradient of gravity and its significance for volcano monitoring - example from Teide volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahorec, Pavol; Vajda, Peter; Papčo, Juraj; Sainz-Maza Aparicio, Sergio; Pereda De Pablo, Jorge

    2016-09-01

    We present a detailed calculation of the topographic contribution to the vertical gradient of gravity (VGG) based on high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) and new developed software (Toposk) for the purpose of predicting the actual VGGs in the field. The calculations presented here were performed for the Central Volcanic Complex (CVC) of Tenerife. We aimed at identifying the most extreme VGGs within the CVC, as well as predicting the VGGs at benchmarks of the former microgravity/deformation network set up to monitor the 2004/5 unrest. We have carried out an observational campaign in June 2016 to verify the predicted VGG values, both the extreme ones and those at the benchmarks. The comparison between the predicted and the in-situ verified VGGs is presented here. We demonstrate the sensitivity of the VGG prediction to the choice of the topo-rock density, which is inherent to the volcanic areas with high variability of rock densities. We illustrate the significance of the use of actual VGG in volcano monitoring microgravimetric surveys on a couple of benchmarks of the CVC network.

  3. Monitoring the Damage State of Fiber Reinforced Composites Using an FBG Network for Failure Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Kocaman, Esat Selim; Akay, Erdem; Yilmaz, Cagatay; Turkmen, Halit Suleyman; Misirlioglu, Ibrahim Burc; Suleman, Afzal; Yildiz, Mehmet

    2017-01-01

    A structural health monitoring (SHM) study of biaxial glass fibre-reinforced epoxy matrix composites under a constant, high strain uniaxial fatigue loading is performed using fibre Bragg grating (FBG) optical sensors embedded in composites at various locations to monitor the evolution of local strains, thereby understanding the damage mechanisms. Concurrently, the temperature changes of the samples during the fatigue test have also been monitored at the same locations. Close to fracture, significant variations in local temperatures and strains are observed, and it is shown that the variations in temperature and strain can be used to predict imminent fracture. It is noted that the latter information cannot be obtained using external strain gages, which underlines the importance of the tracking of local strains internally. PMID:28772393

  4. The balanced mind: the variability of task-unrelated thoughts predicts error monitoring.

    PubMed

    Allen, Micah; Smallwood, Jonathan; Christensen, Joanna; Gramm, Daniel; Rasmussen, Beinta; Jensen, Christian Gaden; Roepstorff, Andreas; Lutz, Antoine

    2013-01-01

    Self-generated thoughts unrelated to ongoing activities, also known as "mind-wandering," make up a substantial portion of our daily lives. Reports of such task-unrelated thoughts (TUTs) predict both poor performance on demanding cognitive tasks and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) activity in the default mode network (DMN). However, recent findings suggest that TUTs and the DMN can also facilitate metacognitive abilities and related behaviors. To further understand these relationships, we examined the influence of subjective intensity, ruminative quality, and variability of mind-wandering on response inhibition and monitoring, using the Error Awareness Task (EAT). We expected to replicate links between TUT and reduced inhibition, and explored whether variance in TUT would predict improved error monitoring, reflecting a capacity to balance between internal and external cognition. By analyzing BOLD responses to subjective probes and the EAT, we dissociated contributions of the DMN, executive, and salience networks to task performance. While both response inhibition and online TUT ratings modulated BOLD activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) of the DMN, the former recruited a more dorsal area implying functional segregation. We further found that individual differences in mean TUTs strongly predicted EAT stop accuracy, while TUT variability specifically predicted levels of error awareness. Interestingly, we also observed co-activation of salience and default mode regions during error awareness, supporting a link between monitoring and TUTs. Altogether our results suggest that although TUT is detrimental to task performance, fluctuations in attention between self-generated and external task-related thought is a characteristic of individuals with greater metacognitive monitoring capacity. Achieving a balance between internally and externally oriented thought may thus aid individuals in optimizing their task performance.

  5. The balanced mind: the variability of task-unrelated thoughts predicts error monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Allen, Micah; Smallwood, Jonathan; Christensen, Joanna; Gramm, Daniel; Rasmussen, Beinta; Jensen, Christian Gaden; Roepstorff, Andreas; Lutz, Antoine

    2013-01-01

    Self-generated thoughts unrelated to ongoing activities, also known as “mind-wandering,” make up a substantial portion of our daily lives. Reports of such task-unrelated thoughts (TUTs) predict both poor performance on demanding cognitive tasks and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) activity in the default mode network (DMN). However, recent findings suggest that TUTs and the DMN can also facilitate metacognitive abilities and related behaviors. To further understand these relationships, we examined the influence of subjective intensity, ruminative quality, and variability of mind-wandering on response inhibition and monitoring, using the Error Awareness Task (EAT). We expected to replicate links between TUT and reduced inhibition, and explored whether variance in TUT would predict improved error monitoring, reflecting a capacity to balance between internal and external cognition. By analyzing BOLD responses to subjective probes and the EAT, we dissociated contributions of the DMN, executive, and salience networks to task performance. While both response inhibition and online TUT ratings modulated BOLD activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) of the DMN, the former recruited a more dorsal area implying functional segregation. We further found that individual differences in mean TUTs strongly predicted EAT stop accuracy, while TUT variability specifically predicted levels of error awareness. Interestingly, we also observed co-activation of salience and default mode regions during error awareness, supporting a link between monitoring and TUTs. Altogether our results suggest that although TUT is detrimental to task performance, fluctuations in attention between self-generated and external task-related thought is a characteristic of individuals with greater metacognitive monitoring capacity. Achieving a balance between internally and externally oriented thought may thus aid individuals in optimizing their task performance. PMID:24223545

  6. Development of a catchment/landscape erosion prediction model (MINErosion 4) for post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalifa, Ashraf; Yu, Bofu; Ghadiri, Hossain; Carroll, Chris; So, Hwat-Bing

    2010-05-01

    industry further require a tool that enables them to predict and manage the impact of on-site and offsite discharges from storm events and to identify the areas of high erosion risk. Work is in progress to develop a user friendly package MINErosion 4 by combining the hillslope model MINErosion 3 with ARC-GIS 9, which allows the prediction of sediment losses and deposition from proposed post-mining landscapes (designed based on criteria derived from MINErosion3) subjected to rainstorms with known recurrence intervals for selected locations. An option is provided to derive mean annual soil loss from these catchments and landscapes. Soil samples were collected from various locations on 6 minesites to provide a measure of variability in erodibilities across a minesite. The model was validated against 9 years of catchment data collected from previous projects and the agreement between predicted (Y) and measured (X) soil losses are good with regression equations of Y = 0.919 X (R2 = 0.81) for individual rainstorms, and Y= 1.473 X (R2 = 0.726) for average annual soil loss.

  7. Using skin impedance to improve prediction accuracy of continuous glucose monitoring system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Haixia; Liu, Jin; Shi, Ting; Li, Dachao; Du, Zhenhui; Xu, Kexin

    2008-02-01

    The continuous blood glucose monitoring system using interstitial fluid (ISF) extracted by ultrasound and vacuum is proposed in this paper. The skin impedance measurement is introduced into the system to monitor the skin permeability variation. Low-frequency ultrasound is applied on skin surface to enhance the skin permeability by disrupting the lipid bilayers of the stratum corneum (SC), and then ISF is extracted out of skin continuously by vacuum. The extracted ISF is diluted and the concentration of glucose in it is detected by a biosensor and used to predict the blood glucose concentration. The skin permeability is variable during the extraction, and its variation affects the prediction accuracy. The skin impedance is an excellent indicator of skin permeability in that the lipid bilayers of the SC, which offer electrical resistance to the skin, retard transdermal transport of molecules. So the skin impedance measured during the extraction is transformed to skin conductivity to estimate correlation coefficient between skin conductivity and permeability. Skin conductivity correlates well with skin permeability. The method and experiment system mentioned above may be significative for improving the prediction accuracy of continuous blood glucose monitoring system.

  8. Binary sensitivity of theta activity for gain and loss when monitoring parametric prediction errors.

    PubMed

    Janssen, Denise J C; Poljac, Edita; Bekkering, Harold

    2016-08-01

    Several theories have been proposed to account for the medial frontal activity that is elicited during the evaluation of outcomes. Respectively, these theories claim that the medial frontal response reflects (i) the absolute deviation between the value of an outcome and its expected value (i.e. an absolute prediction error); (ii) the deviation between actual and expected outcomes, with a specific sensitivity to outcomes that are worse than expected (i.e. a negative prediction error); (iii) a binary evaluation in terms of good and bad outcomes. In the current electroencephalography study, participants were presented with cues that induced specific predictions for the values of trial outcomes (a gain or loss of points). The actual outcomes occasionally deviated from the predicted values, producing prediction errors with parametrically varying size. Analysis of the medial frontal theta activity in response to the outcomes demonstrated a specific sensitivity to the occurrence of a loss of points when a gain had been predicted. However, the absolute deviation with respect to the predicted value did not modulate the theta response. This finding is consistent with the idea that outcome monitoring activity measured over medial frontal cortex is sensitive to the binary distinction between good and bad outcomes.

  9. Integrating monitor alarms with laboratory test results to enhance patient deterioration prediction.

    PubMed

    Bai, Yong; Do, Duc H; Harris, Patricia Rae Eileen; Schindler, Daniel; Boyle, Noel G; Drew, Barbara J; Hu, Xiao

    2015-02-01

    Patient monitors in modern hospitals have become ubiquitous but they generate an excessive number of false alarms causing alarm fatigue. Our previous work showed that combinations of frequently co-occurring monitor alarms, called SuperAlarm patterns, were capable of predicting in-hospital code blue events at a lower alarm frequency. In the present study, we extend the conceptual domain of a SuperAlarm to incorporate laboratory test results along with monitor alarms so as to build an integrated data set to mine SuperAlarm patterns. We propose two approaches to integrate monitor alarms with laboratory test results and use a maximal frequent itemsets mining algorithm to find SuperAlarm patterns. Under an acceptable false positive rate FPRmax, optimal parameters including the minimum support threshold and the length of time window for the algorithm to find the combinations of monitor alarms and laboratory test results are determined based on a 10-fold cross-validation set. SuperAlarm candidates are generated under these optimal parameters. The final SuperAlarm patterns are obtained by further removing the candidates with false positive rate>FPRmax. The performance of SuperAlarm patterns are assessed using an independent test data set. First, we calculate the sensitivity with respect to prediction window and the sensitivity with respect to lead time. Second, we calculate the false SuperAlarm ratio (ratio of the hourly number of SuperAlarm triggers for control patients to that of the monitor alarms, or that of regular monitor alarms plus laboratory test results if the SuperAlarm patterns contain laboratory test results) and the work-up to detection ratio, WDR (ratio of the number of patients triggering any SuperAlarm patterns to that of code blue patients triggering any SuperAlarm patterns). The experiment results demonstrate that when varying FPRmax between 0.02 and 0.15, the SuperAlarm patterns composed of monitor alarms along with the last two laboratory test results

  10. Application of the Artificial Neural Network model for prediction of monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index using hydrometeorological parameters and climate indices in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Şahin, Mehmet

    2015-07-01

    The forecasting of drought based on cumulative influence of rainfall, temperature and evaporation is greatly beneficial for mitigating adverse consequences on water-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, ecosystems, wildlife, tourism, recreation, crop health and hydrologic engineering. Predictive models of drought indices help in assessing water scarcity situations, drought identification and severity characterization. In this paper, we tested the feasibility of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a data-driven model for predicting the monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for eight candidate stations in eastern Australia using predictive variable data from 1915 to 2005 (training) and simulated data for the period 2006-2012. The predictive variables were: monthly rainfall totals, mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration, which were supplemented by large-scale climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and Indian Ocean Dipole) and the Sea Surface Temperatures (Nino 3.0, 3.4 and 4.0). A total of 30 ANN models were developed with 3-layer ANN networks. To determine the best combination of learning algorithms, hidden transfer and output functions of the optimum model, the Levenberg-Marquardt and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton backpropagation algorithms were utilized to train the network, tangent and logarithmic sigmoid equations used as the activation functions and the linear, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid equations used as the output function. The best ANN architecture had 18 input neurons, 43 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron, trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm using tangent sigmoid equation as the activation and output functions. An evaluation of the model performance based on statistical rules yielded time-averaged Coefficient of Determination, Root Mean Squared Error and the Mean Absolute

  11. Considerations on the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, D B; Zucca, J J; McCallen, D B; Pasyanos, M E; Flanagan, M P; Myers, S C; Walter, W R; Rodgers, A J; Harben, P E

    2007-07-09

    The use of 3-D geophysical models to predict nuclear test ban monitoring observables (phase travel times, amplitudes, dispersion, etc.) is widely anticipated to provide improvements in the basic seismic monitoring functions of detection, association, location, discrimination and yield estimation. A number of questions arise when contemplating a transition from 1-D, 2-D and 2.5-D models to constructing and using 3-D models, among them: (1) Can a 3-D geophysical model or a collection of 3-D models provide measurably improved predictions of seismic monitoring observables over existing 1-D models, or 2-D and 2 1/2-D models currently under development? (2) Is a single model that can predict all observables achievable, or must separate models be devised for each observable? How should joint inversion of disparate observable data be performed, if required? (3) What are the options for model representation? Are multi-resolution models essential? How does representation affect the accuracy and speed of observable predictions? (4) How should model uncertainty be estimated, represented and how should it be used? Are stochastic models desirable? (5) What data types should be used to construct the models? What quality control regime should be established? (6) How will 3-D models be used in operations? Will significant improvements in the basic monitoring functions result from the use of 3-D models? Will the calculation of observables through 3-D models be fast enough for real-time use or must a strategy of pre-computation be employed? (7) What are the theoretical limits to 3-D model development (resolution, uncertainty) and performance in predicting monitoring observables? How closely can those limits be approached with projected data availability, station distribution and inverse methods? (8) What priorities should be placed on the acquisition of event ground truth information, deployment of new stations, development of new inverse techniques, exploitation of large

  12. The Drought Task Force and Research on Understanding, Predicting, and Monitoring Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrie, D.; Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Hoerling, M. P.; Wood, E. F.; Koster, R. D.; Svoboda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Drought has caused serious social and economic impacts throughout the history of the United States. All Americans are susceptible to the direct and indirect threats drought poses to the Nation. Drought challenges agricultural productivity and reduces the quantity and quality of drinking water supplies upon which communities and industries depend. Drought jeopardizes the integrity of critical infrastructure, causes extensive economic and health impacts, harms ecosystems, and increases energy costs. Ensuring the availability of clean, sufficient, and reliable water resources is a top national and NOAA priority. The Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program, in partnership with the NOAA-led National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), is focused on improving our understanding of drought causes, evolution, amelioration, and impacts as well as improving our capability to monitor and predict drought. These capabilities and knowledge are critical to providing communities with actionable, reliable information to increase drought preparedness and resilience. This poster will present information on the MAPP-organized Drought Task Force, a consortium of investigators funded by the MAPP program in partnership with NIDIS to advance drought understanding, monitoring, and prediction. Information on Task Force activities, products, and MAPP drought initiatives will be described in the poster, including the Task Force's ongoing focus on the California drought, its predictability, and its causes.

  13. Optimizing monitoring design to increase predictive reliability of groundwater flow models at different scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wöhling, Thomas; Gosses, Moritz J.; Leyes Pérez, Miguel; Geiges, Andreas; Moore, Catherine R.; Osenbrück, Karsten; Scott, David M.

    2013-04-01

    Mathematical system models have become popular to make predictions about the impact of water resources management strategies and other projected future changes to the natural system. Monitoring networks are essential to track the states of the system as well as for the calibration and evaluation of corresponding hydro-system models. However, the installation, extension, and maintenance of observation networks often come with considerable expenses. It is, therefore, important to design monitoring networks in an optimal and cost-efficient way. In this study, the worth of a set of observations is defined by its ability to reduce the uncertainty of a model prediction. It is dependent on the problem-specific prediction target and its sensitivity to particular model parameters. For the estimation of predictive uncertainty, we adopt the uncertainty analysis approach by Moore and Doherty (2005) and extend the method to simultaneously optimize multiple observations using a modified Genetic Algorithm (GA) that can also sample from past states for higher efficiency. The proposed optimization algorithm is applied to derive the optimal placement of multiple hydraulic head and conductivity measurements to complement existing groundwater monitoring networks in two aquifers of distinctively different scales. The first case study is a regional aquifer (6346 km²) in the Central Canterbury Plains area of New Zealand. The prediction targets considered are the flux of groundwater discharging into the sea, low-land stream discharge, and stream ex-/infiltration fluxes. The second case study is a local shallow riparian aquifer (0.01 km²) located at the river Steinlach near Tübingen, Germany. The prediction target considered herein is the hyporheic exchange flux. For both studies, calibrated steady-state Modflow models have been developed. In both case studies and regardless of the prediction target, the optimization results show a higher utility of hydraulic conductivity observations

  14. Optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

    2010-12-01

    The process of decision making to protect groundwater resources requires a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties associated with modeling a natural system, such as: (1) measurement and computational errors; (2) uncertainties in the conceptual model and model-parameter estimates; (3) simplifications in model setup and numerical representation of governing processes, contribute to the uncertainties in the model predictions. Due to this combination of factors, the sources of predictive uncertainties are generally difficult to quantify individually. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks requires (1) detailed analyses of existing uncertainties related to model predictions of groundwater flow and contaminant transport, (2) optimization of the proposed monitoring network locations in terms of their efficiency to detect contaminants and provide early warning. We apply existing and newly-proposed methods to quantify predictive uncertainties and to optimize well locations. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of newly-developed optimization technique based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods which proved to be robust and computationally efficient. These techniques and algorithms are bundled in a software package called MADS. MADS (Model Analyses for Decision Support) is an object-oriented code that is capable of performing various types of model analyses and supporting model-based decision making. The code can be executed under different computational modes, which include (1) sensitivity analyses (global and local), (2) Monte Carlo analysis, (3) model calibration, (4) parameter estimation, (5) uncertainty quantification, and (6) model selection. The code can be externally coupled with any existing model simulator through integrated modules that read/write input and output files using a set of template and instruction files (consistent with the PEST

  15. Interactions of team mental models and monitoring behaviors predict team performance in simulated anesthesia inductions.

    PubMed

    Burtscher, Michael J; Kolbe, Michaela; Wacker, Johannes; Manser, Tanja

    2011-09-01

    In the present study, we investigated how two team mental model properties (similarity vs. accuracy) and two forms of monitoring behavior (team vs. systems) interacted to predict team performance in anesthesia. In particular, we were interested in whether the relationship between monitoring behavior and team performance was moderated by team mental model properties. Thirty-one two-person teams consisting of anesthesia resident and anesthesia nurse were videotaped during a simulated anesthesia induction of general anesthesia. Team mental models were assessed with a newly developed measurement tool based on the concept-mapping technique. Monitoring behavior was coded by two organizational psychologists using a structured observation system. Team performance was rated by two expert anesthetists using a performance-checklist. Moderated multiple regression analysis revealed that team mental model similarity moderated the relationship between team monitoring and performance; a higher level of team monitoring in the absence of a similar team mental model had a negative effect on performance. Furthermore, team mental model similarity and accuracy interacted to predict team performance. Our findings provide new insights on factors influencing the relationship between team processes and team performance in health care. When investigating the effectiveness of a specific team coordination behavior, team cognition has to be taken into account. This represents a necessary and compelling extension of the popular process-outcome relationship on which previous teamwork research in health care has focused. Moreover, the current study adds further external validity to the concept of team mental models by highlighting its usefulness in health care. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Southern Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    South-central Australia is home to several deserts, including the Simpson Desert, whose reddish-orange sands are seen in the upper left quadrant of this Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image from July 1, 2002. Several impermanent, salty, lakes stand whitely out against the arid terrain. The largest is North Lake Eyre, southwest of center. At bottom center, Spencer Gulf separates the triangular Eyre Peninsula from the Yorke Peninsula. The Gulf of St. Vincent separates Yorke Peninsula from the mainland. In Spencer Gulf, colorful blue-green swirls indicate the presence of a bloom of marine plants called phytoplankton, whose brightly colored photosynthetic pigments stain the water. Water quality in the Gulf is an ongoing problem for Australia, as irrigation projects have diverted the already small flow of freshwater that empties into the Gulf. Other problems include contamination with pesticides and agricultural and residential fertilizer. On both the Eyre Peninsula and in the Victoria Territory to the east of Spencer Gulf, dark-colored rectangles show the boundaries of parks and nature preserves where the natural, drought-tolerant vegetation thrives.

  17. Quantifying the prediction accuracy of a 1-D SVAT model at a range of ecosystems in the USA and Australia: evidence towards its use as a tool to study Earth's system interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petropoulos, G. P.; North, M. R.; Ireland, G.; Srivastava, P. K.; Rendall, D. V.

    2015-10-01

    This paper describes the validation of the SimSphere SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer) model conducted at a range of US and Australian ecosystem types. Specific focus was given to examining the models' ability in predicting shortwave incoming solar radiation (Rg), net radiation (Rnet), latent heat (LE), sensible heat (H), air temperature at 1.3 m (Tair 1.3 m) and air temperature at 50 m (Tair 50 m). Model predictions were compared against corresponding in situ measurements acquired for a total of 72 selected days of the year 2011 obtained from eight sites belonging to the AmeriFlux (USA) and OzFlux (Australia) monitoring networks. Selected sites were representative of a variety of environmental, biome and climatic conditions, to allow for the inclusion of contrasting conditions in the model evaluation. Overall, results showed a good agreement between the model predictions and the in situ measurements, particularly so for the Rg, Rnet, Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m parameters. The simulated Rg parameter exhibited a root mean square deviation (RMSD) within 25 % of the observed fluxes for 58 of the 72 selected days, whereas an RMSD within ~ 24 % of the observed fluxes was reported for the Rnet parameter for all days of study (RMSD = 58.69 W m-2). A systematic underestimation of Rg and Rnet (mean bias error (MBE) = -19.48 and -16.46 W m-2) was also found. Simulations for the Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m showed good agreement with the in situ observations, exhibiting RMSDs of 3.23 and 3.77 °C (within ~ 15 and ~ 18 % of the observed) for all days of analysis, respectively. Comparable, yet slightly less satisfactory simulation accuracies were exhibited for the H and LE parameters (RMSDs = 38.47 and 55.06 W m-2, ~ 34 and ~ 28 % of the observed). Highest simulation accuracies were obtained for the open woodland savannah and mulga woodland sites for most of the compared parameters. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index for all parameters ranges from 0.720 to 0.998, suggesting

  18. Evaluation of the predicted error of the soil moisture retrieval from C-band SAR by comparison against modelled soil moisture estimates over Australia.

    PubMed

    Doubková, Marcela; Van Dijk, Albert I J M; Sabel, Daniel; Wagner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

    2012-05-15

    The Sentinel-1 will carry onboard a C-band radar instrument that will map the European continent once every four days and the global land surface at least once every twelve days with finest 5 × 20 m spatial resolution. The high temporal sampling rate and operational configuration make Sentinel-1 of interest for operational soil moisture monitoring. Currently, updated soil moisture data are made available at 1 km spatial resolution as a demonstration service using Global Mode (GM) measurements from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) onboard ENVISAT. The service demonstrates the potential of the C-band observations to monitor variations in soil moisture. Importantly, a retrieval error estimate is also available; these are needed to assimilate observations into models. The retrieval error is estimated by propagating sensor errors through the retrieval model. In this work, the existing ASAR GM retrieval error product is evaluated using independent top soil moisture estimates produced by the grid-based landscape hydrological model (AWRA-L) developed within the Australian Water Resources Assessment system (AWRA). The ASAR GM retrieval error estimate, an assumed prior AWRA-L error estimate and the variance in the respective datasets were used to spatially predict the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient R between the two datasets. These were compared with the RMSE calculated directly from the two datasets. The predicted and computed RMSE showed a very high level of agreement in spatial patterns as well as good quantitative agreement; the RMSE was predicted within accuracy of 4% of saturated soil moisture over 89% of the Australian land mass. Predicted and calculated R maps corresponded within accuracy of 10% over 61% of the continent. The strong correspondence between the predicted and calculated RMSE and R builds confidence in the retrieval error model and derived ASAR GM error estimates. The ASAR GM and Sentinel-1 have

  19. Evaluation of the predicted error of the soil moisture retrieval from C-band SAR by comparison against modelled soil moisture estimates over Australia

    PubMed Central

    Doubková, Marcela; Van Dijk, Albert I.J.M.; Sabel, Daniel; Wagner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

    2012-01-01

    The Sentinel-1 will carry onboard a C-band radar instrument that will map the European continent once every four days and the global land surface at least once every twelve days with finest 5 × 20 m spatial resolution. The high temporal sampling rate and operational configuration make Sentinel-1 of interest for operational soil moisture monitoring. Currently, updated soil moisture data are made available at 1 km spatial resolution as a demonstration service using Global Mode (GM) measurements from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) onboard ENVISAT. The service demonstrates the potential of the C-band observations to monitor variations in soil moisture. Importantly, a retrieval error estimate is also available; these are needed to assimilate observations into models. The retrieval error is estimated by propagating sensor errors through the retrieval model. In this work, the existing ASAR GM retrieval error product is evaluated using independent top soil moisture estimates produced by the grid-based landscape hydrological model (AWRA-L) developed within the Australian Water Resources Assessment system (AWRA). The ASAR GM retrieval error estimate, an assumed prior AWRA-L error estimate and the variance in the respective datasets were used to spatially predict the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient R between the two datasets. These were compared with the RMSE calculated directly from the two datasets. The predicted and computed RMSE showed a very high level of agreement in spatial patterns as well as good quantitative agreement; the RMSE was predicted within accuracy of 4% of saturated soil moisture over 89% of the Australian land mass. Predicted and calculated R maps corresponded within accuracy of 10% over 61% of the continent. The strong correspondence between the predicted and calculated RMSE and R builds confidence in the retrieval error model and derived ASAR GM error estimates. The ASAR GM and Sentinel-1 have

  20. Accuracy of continuous noninvasive hemoglobin monitoring for the prediction of blood transfusions in trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Galvagno, Samuel M; Hu, Peter; Yang, Shiming; Gao, Cheng; Hanna, David; Shackelford, Stacy; Mackenzie, Colin

    2015-12-01

    Early detection of hemorrhagic shock is required to facilitate prompt coordination of blood component therapy delivery to the bedside and to expedite performance of lifesaving interventions. Standard physical findings and vital signs are difficult to measure during the acute resuscitation stage, and these measures are often inaccurate until patients deteriorate to a state of decompensated shock. The aim of this study is to examine a severely injured trauma patient population to determine whether a noninvasive SpHb monitor can predict the need for urgent blood transfusion (universal donor or additional urgent blood transfusion) during the first 12 h of trauma patient resuscitation. We hypothesize that trends in continuous SpHb, combined with easily derived patient-specific factors, can identify the immediate need for transfusion in trauma patients. Subjects were enrolled if directly admitted to the trauma center, >17 years of age, and with a shock index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) >0.62. Upon admission, a Masimo Radical-7 co-oximeter sensor (Masimo Corporation, Irvine, CA) was applied, providing measurement of continuous non-invasive hemoglobin (SpHb) levels. Blood was drawn and hemoglobin concentration analyzed and conventional pulse oximetry photopletysmograph signals were continuously recorded. Demographic information and both prehospital and admission vital signs were collected. The primary outcome was transfusion of at least one unit of packed red blood cells within 24 h of admission. Eight regression models (C1-C8) were evaluated for the prediction of blood use by comparing area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) at different time intervals after admission. 711 subjects had continuous vital signs waveforms available, to include heart rate (HR), SpHb and SpO2 trends. When SpHb was monitored for 15 min, SpHb did not increase AUROC for prediction of transfusion. The highest ROC was recorded for model C8 (age, sex, prehospital shock index, admission

  1. Predictive monitoring for respiratory decompensation leading to urgent unplanned intubation in the neonatal intensive care unit.

    PubMed

    Clark, Matthew T; Vergales, Brooke D; Paget-Brown, Alix O; Smoot, Terri J; Lake, Douglas E; Hudson, John L; Delos, John B; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J Randall

    2013-01-01

    Infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and especially those born with very low birth weight (VLBW; <1,500 g), are at risk for respiratory decompensation requiring endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation. Intubation and mechanical ventilation are associated with increased morbidity, particularly in urgent unplanned cases. We tested the hypothesis that the systemic response associated with respiratory decompensation can be detected from physiological monitoring and that statistical models of bedside monitoring data can identify infants at increased risk of urgent unplanned intubation. We studied 287 VLBW infants consecutively admitted to our NICU and found 96 events in 51 patients, excluding intubations occurring within 12 h of a previous extubation. In order of importance in a multivariable statistical model, we found that the characteristics of reduced O(2) saturation, especially as heart rate was falling; increased heart rate correlation with respiratory rate; and the amount of apnea were all significant independent predictors. The predictive model, validated internally by bootstrap, had a receiver-operating characteristic area of 0.84 ± 0.04. We propose that predictive monitoring in the NICU for urgent unplanned intubation may improve outcomes by allowing clinicians to intervene noninvasively before intubation is required.

  2. Lake Mackay, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-09-27

    Lake Mackay is the largest of hundreds of ephemeral lakes scattered throughout Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and is the second largest lake in Australia. The darker areas indicate some form of desert vegetation or algae, moisture within the soils, and lowest elevations where water pools. The image was acquired on September 19, 2010 and covers an area of 27 x 41 km. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched Dec. 18, 1999, on Terra. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and data products. The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER provides scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; wetlands evaluation; thermal pollution monitoring; coral reef degradation; surface temperature mapping of soils and geology; and measuring surface heat balance. The U.S. science team is located at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C. More information about ASTER is available at asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/. Image Credit: NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team

  3. Becoming a Woman Teacher: Memories of Learning to Be a Monitor in Western Australia in the 1920s and 1930s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trotman, Janina; O'Donoghue, Tom

    2010-01-01

    Oral testimonies generated in a research project involving a group of women graduates of Western Australia's state teachers' college indicate that contradictions existed between competing discourses of femininity and teaching in the State in the early decades of the twentieth century, and that these opened up new possibilities for women teachers.…

  4. In-Clinic Blood Pressure Prediction of Normal Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring in Pediatric Hypertension Referrals.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Philip K; Ferguson, Michael A; Zachariah, Justin P

    2016-07-01

    Since younger patients have low pretest probability of hypertension and are susceptible to reactive and masked hypertension, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) can be useful. To better target use in referred patients, we sought to define in-clinic systolic blood pressure (SBP) measures that predicted normal ABPM and target end organ damage. Data were collected on consecutive patients referred for high BP undergoing an ambulatory BP monitor from 2010 to 2013 (n = 248, 33.9% female, mean age 15.5 ± 3.6 years). Candidate in-clinic predictors were systolic maximum, minimum, or average BPs obtained by auscultative, oscillometric, or both. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the prediction of normal ABPM by in-clinic BP predictors. Separate models considered predicting left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) by in-clinic SBP vs. ABPM-defined hypertension. Identified predictor utility was tested with receiver operator characteristic curves. Maximum (OR 0.97 [95% CI 0.94-0.99]; P = .047), minimum (0.96 [0.94-0.99]; P = .002), and average (0.97 [0.95-1.00]; P = .04) in-clinic auscultative SBP predicted normal ABPM. Each had a c-statistic of 0.58. LVH was associated with in-clinic auscultative minimum SBP treated continuously (1.05, [1.01-1.10], P = .01) or dichotomized at the 90th percentile (8.23, [1.48-45.80], P = .02), as well as ABPM-defined hypertension (3.31, [1.23-8.91], P = .02). Both predictors had poor sensitivity and specificity. In youth, normal auscultative in-clinic systolic blood pressure indices weakly predicted normal ambulatory blood pressure and target end organ damage. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Remote Health Monitoring Outcome Success Prediction Using Baseline and First Month Intervention Data.

    PubMed

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Sideris, Costas; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Kalantarian, Haik; Sarrafzadeh, Majid; Eastwood, Jo-Ann

    2017-03-01

    Remote health monitoring (RHM) systems are becoming more widely adopted by clinicians and hospitals to remotely monitor and communicate with patients while optimizing clinician time, decreasing hospital costs, and improving quality of care. In the Women's heart health study (WHHS), we developed Wanda-cardiovascular disease (CVD), where participants received healthy lifestyle education followed by six months of technology support and reinforcement. Wanda-CVD is a smartphone-based RHM system designed to assist participants in reducing identified CVD risk factors through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. Many participants benefitted from this RHM system. In response to the variance in participants' success, we developed a framework to identify classification schemes that predicted successful and unsuccessful participants. We analyzed both contextual baseline features and data from the first month of intervention such as activity, blood pressure, and questionnaire responses transmitted through the smartphone. A prediction tool can aid clinicians and scientists in identifying participants who may optimally benefit from the RHM system. Targeting therapies could potentially save healthcare costs, clinician, and participant time and resources. Our classification scheme yields RHM outcome success predictions with an F-measure of 91.9%, and identifies behaviors during the first month of intervention that help determine outcome success. We also show an improvement in prediction by using intervention-based smartphone data. Results from the WHHS study demonstrates that factors such as the variation in first month intervention response to the consumption of nuts, beans, and seeds in the diet help predict patient RHM protocol outcome success in a group of young Black women ages 25-45.

  6. Predictive modeling of marine benthic macrofauna and its use to inform spatial monitoring design.

    PubMed

    Dowd, Michael; Grant, Jon; Lu, Lin

    2014-06-01

    This study undertakes ecological analysis focused on predictive modelling and design for spatial sampling. The approaches are applied to a set of coastal marine benthic macrofaunal observations, and associated environmental data, measured at 48 sites in St Anns Bay, Nova Scotia, Canada. A multivariate generalized least-squares regression was used to establish a predictive relationship between benthic fauna and the environment. Five ecological indices derived from faunal composition (abundance, richness, species number, diversity, AMBI) were treated as a multivariate response, and 10 environmental variables as candidate predictors. The multivariate regression also incorporated the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Predictive relationships were highly significant, and variable selection identified three key environmental predictors (median sediment grain size, porosity, and sulfide). Using these baseline data, we developed a procedure to identify a reduced sampling design for long-term monitoring of benthic faunal health. The procedure is based on a sequential (backward elimination) algorithm to identify the set of sites that contributed most to the overall information. This study provides a general and comprehensive statistical framework for treating environmental monitoring and sampling design. It can be extended beyond the statistical framework used, and applied to a range of ecological applications.

  7. A mixture Weibull proportional hazard model for mechanical system failure prediction utilising lifetime and monitoring data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qing; Hua, Cheng; Xu, Guanghua

    2014-02-01

    As mechanical systems increase in complexity, it is becoming more and more common to observe multiple failure modes. The system failure can be regarded as the result of interaction and competition between different failure modes. It is therefore necessary to combine multiple failure modes when analysing the failure of an overall system. In this paper, a mixture Weibull proportional hazard model (MWPHM) is proposed to predict the failure of a mechanical system with multiple failure modes. The mixed model parameters are estimated by combining historical lifetime and monitoring data of all failure modes. In addition, the system failure probability density is obtained by proportionally mixing the failure probability density of multiple failure modes. Monitoring data are input into the MWPHM to estimate the system reliability and predict the system failure time. A simulated sample set is used to verify the ability of the MWPHM to model multiple failure modes. Finally, the MWPHM and the traditional Weibull proportional hazard model (WPHM) are applied to a high-pressure water descaling pump, which has two failure modes: sealing ring wear and thrust bearing damage. Results show that the MWPHM is greatly superior in system failure prediction to the WPHM.

  8. Monitoring, fault detection and operation prediction of MSW incinerators using multivariate statistical methods.

    PubMed

    Tavares, Gilberto; Zsigraiová, Zdena; Semiao, Viriato; Carvalho, Maria da Graca

    2011-07-01

    This work proposes the application of two multivariate statistical methods, principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS), to a continuous process of a municipal solid waste (MSW) moving grate-type incinerator for process control--monitoring, fault detection and diagnosis--through the extraction of information from historical data. PCA model is built for process monitoring capable of detecting abnormal situations and the original 16-variable process dimension is reduced to eight, the first 4 being able to capture together 86% of the total process variation. PLS model is constructed to predict the generated superheated steam flow rate allowing for control of its set points. The model retained six of the original 13 variables, explaining together 90% of the input variation and almost 98% of the output variation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by applying those multivariate statistical methods to process data continuously measured in an actual incinerator. Both models exhibited very good performance in fault detection and isolation. In predicting the generated superheated steam flow rate for its set point control the PLS model performed very well with low prediction errors (RMSE of 3.1 and 4.1).

  9. Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2016-01-01

    As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

  10. Advanced in-production hotspot prediction and monitoring with micro-topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fanton, P.; Hasan, T.; Lakcher, A.; Le-Gratiet, B.; Prentice, C.; Simiz, J.-G.; La Greca, R.; Depre, L.; Hunsche, S.

    2017-03-01

    At 28nm technology node and below, hot spot prediction and process window control across production wafers have become increasingly critical to prevent hotspots from becoming yield-limiting defects. We previously established proof of concept for a systematic approach to identify the most critical pattern locations, i.e. hotspots, in a reticle layout by computational lithography and combining process window characteristics of these patterns with across-wafer process variation data to predict where hotspots may become yield impacting defects [1,2]. The current paper establishes the impact of micro-topography on a 28nm metal layer, and its correlation with hotspot best focus variations across a production chip layout. Detailed topography measurements are obtained from an offline tool, and pattern-dependent best focus (BF) shifts are determined from litho simulations that include mask-3D effects. We also establish hotspot metrology and defect verification by SEM image contour extraction and contour analysis. This enables detection of catastrophic defects as well as quantitative characterization of pattern variability, i.e. local and global CD uniformity, across a wafer to establish hotspot defect and variability maps. Finally, we combine defect prediction and verification capabilities for process monitoring by on-product, guided hotspot metrology, i.e. with sampling locations being determined from the defect prediction model and achieved prediction accuracy (capture rate) around 75%

  11. Short-term memory predictions across the lifespan: monitoring span before and after conducting a task.

    PubMed

    Bertrand, Julie Marilyne; Moulin, Chris John Anthony; Souchay, Céline

    2017-05-01

    Our objective was to explore metamemory in short-term memory across the lifespan. Five age groups participated in this study: 3 groups of children (4-13 years old), and younger and older adults. We used a three-phase task: prediction-span-postdiction. For prediction and postdiction phases, participants reported with a Yes/No response if they could recall in order a series of images. For the span task, they had to actually recall such series. From 4 years old, children have some ability to monitor their short-term memory and are able to adjust their prediction after experiencing the task. However, accuracy still improves significantly until adolescence. Although the older adults had a lower span, they were as accurate as young adults in their evaluation, suggesting that metamemory is unimpaired for short-term memory tasks in older adults. •We investigate metamemory for short-term memory tasks across the lifespan. •We find younger children cannot accurately predict their span length. •Older adults are accurate in predicting their span length. •People's metamemory accuracy was related to their short-term memory span.

  12. Real time monitoring of reticle etch process tool to investigate and predict critical dimension performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deming, Rick; Yung, Karmen; Guglielmana, Mark; Bald, Dan; Baik, Kiho; Abboud, Frank

    2007-03-01

    As mask pattern feature sizes shrink the need for tighter control of factors affecting critical dimensions (CD) increases at all steps in the mask manufacturing process. To support this requirement Intel Mask Operation is expanding its process and equipment monitoring capability. We intend to better understand the factors affecting the process and enhance our ability to predict reticle health and critical dimension performance. This paper describes a methodology by which one can predict the contribution of the dry etch process equipment to overall CD performance. We describe the architecture used to collect critical process related information from various sources both internal and external to the process equipment and environment. In addition we discuss the method used to assess the significance of each parameter and to construct the statistical model used to generate the predictions. We further discuss the methodology used to turn this model into a functioning real time prediction of critical dimension performance. Further, these predictions will be used to modify the manufacturing decision support system to provide early detection for process excursion.

  13. Research-Based Monitoring, Prediction, and Analysis Tools of the Spacecraft Charging Environment for Spacecraft Users

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti A.; Maddox, Marlo M.; Mays, Mona Leila

    2015-01-01

    The Space Weather Research Center (http://swrc. gsfc.nasa.gov) at NASA Goddard, part of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov), is committed to providing research-based forecasts and notifications to address NASA's space weather needs, in addition to its critical role in space weather education. It provides a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, tailored space weather alerts and products, and weekly summaries and reports. In this paper, we focus on how (near) real-time data (both in space and on ground), in combination with modeling capabilities and an innovative dissemination system called the integrated Space Weather Analysis system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), enable monitoring, analyzing, and predicting the spacecraft charging environment for spacecraft users. Relevant tools and resources are discussed.

  14. Research-Based Monitoring, Prediction, and Analysis Tools of the Spacecraft Charging Environment for Spacecraft Users

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti A.; Maddox, Marlo M.; Mays, Mona Leila

    2015-01-01

    The Space Weather Research Center (http://swrc. gsfc.nasa.gov) at NASA Goddard, part of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov), is committed to providing research-based forecasts and notifications to address NASA's space weather needs, in addition to its critical role in space weather education. It provides a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, tailored space weather alerts and products, and weekly summaries and reports. In this paper, we focus on how (near) real-time data (both in space and on ground), in combination with modeling capabilities and an innovative dissemination system called the integrated Space Weather Analysis system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), enable monitoring, analyzing, and predicting the spacecraft charging environment for spacecraft users. Relevant tools and resources are discussed.

  15. Brisbane, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1996-01-20

    STS072-721-010 (11-20 Jan. 1996) --- Astronauts aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour exposed this frame of Brisbane, the third largest city in Australia, as well as the capital of Queensland. The heart of the city is 12 miles from Moreton bay and is located on the Brisbane River. In the photograph this area is clearly visible due to the "W"-shaped bend in the river. Mount Coot-Na Park is the dark area on the upper edge of the frame. This area provides an overlook for the entire city. Moreton Island is the Exclamation shaped island protecting the harbor. Fraser Island is about 150 miles north of Brisbane. The international airport is directly above the river in this view.

  16. Differences between fully Bayesian and pragmatic methods to assess predictive uncertainty and optimal monitoring designs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wöhling, Thomas; Geiges, Andreas; Gosses, Moritz; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    Data acquisition for monitoring the state in different compartments of complex, coupled environmental systems is often time consuming and expensive. Therefore, experimental monitoring strategies are ideally designed such that most can be learned about the system at minimal costs. Bayesian methods for uncertainty quantification and optimal design (OD) of monitoring strategies are well suited to handle the non-linearity exhibited by most coupled environmental systems. However, their high computational demand restricts their applicability to models with comparatively low run-times. Therefore, pragmatic approaches have been used predominantly in the past where data worth and OD analyses have been restricted to linear or linearised problems and methods. Bayesian (nonlinear) and pragmatic (linear) OD approaches are founded on different assumptions and typically follow different steps in the modelling chain of 1) model calibration, 2) uncertainty quantification, and 3) optimal design analysis. The goal of this study is to follow through these steps for a Bayesian and a pragmatic approach and to discuss the impact of different assumptions (prior uncertainty), calibration strategies, and OD analysis methods on the proposed monitoring designs and their reliability to reduce predictive uncertainty. The OD framework PreDIA (Leube et al. 2012) is used for the nonlinear assessment with a conditional model ensemble obtained with Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulation representing the initial predictive uncertainty. PreDIA can consider any kind of uncertainties and non-linear (statistical) dependencies in data, models, parameters and system drivers during the OD process. In the pragmatic OD approach, the parameter calibration was performed with a non-linear global search and the initial predictive uncertainty was estimated using the PREDUNC utility (Moore and Doherty 2005) of PEST. PREDUNC was also used for the linear OD analysis. We applied PreDIA and PREDUNC for uncertainty

  17. Predicting and Monitoring Drought for a Rice Cultivation Season in the Humid Tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernando, D. N.; Robinson, D. A.

    2010-12-01

    The study presents an operational tool for predicting and monitoring drought applicable to the humid tropics. Using Sri Lanka as a case example, it examines the operational predictability of drought and investigates how moisture stress could be monitored as a season unfurls. Drought occurs frequently in Sri Lanka when rainfall associated with the main cultivation season - the Maha (October to March) - fails. During the period 1951-2008, there were 4 extreme [Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) <-2.0], 1 severe (-1.9 < SPI < -1.5), 5 moderate (-1.49 < SPI < -1.0) and 4 mild (-0.99 < SPI < -0.5) droughts. All extreme and severe droughts occurred in the post-1976 period. Such droughts have a profound impact on rice production. Maha seasonal droughts can be predicted on an operational basis by predicting the failure of the two rainfall regimes that supply moisture during the season. The contemporaneous westerly zonal wind at 850hPa (U850) over the domain 60°E-105°E and 5°S-15°N controls the strength of the October-November convective rainfall season - with failure of the season associated with anomalously strong U850. The contemporaneous northerly vertical shear of the mean meridional wind (Vs) in the domain 80°E-90°E and 0°N-20°N controls the strength of the December-February northeast monsoon season - with failure of the season associated with an anomalously weak Vs. Drought forecast skill was assessed for the period 1981-2002 using predicted fields of U850 issued in September, and Vs, issued in November from three Global Climate Model ensembles - i.e. the fully coupled Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP_CFS); the ECHAM4.5 forced with persisted sea surface temperature anomalies (ECHAM4.5_PSST) and the ECMAM4.5 forced with constructed analogues of sea surface temperature anomalies (ECHAM4.5_CA). The failure of October-November rainfall can be predicted with good skill over the rice cultivation regions in the

  18. Joint monitoring and prediction of accrual and event times in clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiaoxi; Long, Qi

    2012-11-01

    In many clinical trials, the primary endpoint is time to an event of interest, for example, time to cardiac attack or tumor progression, and the statistical power of these trials is primarily driven by the number of events observed during the trials. In such trials, the number of events observed is impacted not only by the number of subjects enrolled but also by other factors including the event rate and the follow-up duration. Consequently, it is important for investigators to be able to monitor and predict accurately patient accrual and event times so as to predict the times of interim and final analyses and enable efficient allocation of research resources, which have long been recognized as important aspects of trial design and conduct. The existing methods for prediction of event times all assume that patient accrual follows a Poisson process with a constant Poisson rate over time; however, it is fairly common in real-life clinical trials that the Poisson rate changes over time. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian joint modeling approach for monitoring and prediction of accrual and event times in clinical trials. We employ a nonhomogeneous Poisson process to model patient accrual and a parametric or nonparametric model for the event and loss to follow-up processes. Compared to existing methods, our proposed methods are more flexible and robust in that we model accrual and event/loss-to-follow-up times jointly and allow the underlying accrual rates to change over time. We evaluate the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate the methods using data from a real oncology trial. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Individual Differences in Fifth Graders' Literacy and Academic Language Predict Comprehension Monitoring Development: An Eye-Movement Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we investigated fifth graders' (n = 52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children…

  20. Individual Differences in Fifth Graders' Literacy and Academic Language Predict Comprehension Monitoring Development: An Eye-Movement Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we investigated fifth graders' (n = 52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children…

  1. A computational model to monitor and predict trends in bacterial resistance.

    PubMed

    Alawieh, Ali; Sabra, Zahraa; Bizri, Abdul Rahman; Davies, Christopher; White, Roger; Zaraket, Fadi A

    2015-09-01

    Current concern over the emergence of multidrug-resistant superbugs has renewed interest in approaches that can monitor existing trends in bacterial resistance and make predictions of future trends. Recent advances in bacterial surveillance and the development of online repositories of susceptibility tests across wide geographical areas provide an important new resource, yet there are only limited computational tools for its exploitation. Here we propose a hybrid computational model called BARDmaps for automated analysis of antibacterial susceptibility tests from surveillance records and for performing future predictions. BARDmaps was designed to include a structural computational model that can detect patterns among bacterial resistance changes as well as a behavioural computational model that can use the detected patterns to predict future changes in bacterial resistance. Data from the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) were used to validate and apply the model. BARDmaps was compared with standard curve-fitting approaches used in epidemiological research. Here we show that BARDmaps can reliably predict future trends in bacterial resistance across Europe. BARDmaps performed better than other curve-fitting approaches for predicting future resistance levels. In addition, BARDmaps was also able to detect abrupt changes in bacterial resistance in response to outbreaks and interventions as well as to compare bacterial behaviour across countries and drugs. In conclusion, BARDmaps is a reliable tool to automatically predict and analyse changes in bacterial resistance across Europe. We anticipate that BARDmaps will become an invaluable tool both for clinical providers and governmental agencies to help combat the threat posed by antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

  2. Internet-based monitoring and prediction system of coal stockpile behaviors under atmospheric conditions.

    PubMed

    Yilmaz, Nihat; Ozdeniz, A Hadi

    2010-03-01

    Spontaneous combustion on industrial-scale stockpiles causes environmental problems and economic losses for the companies consuming large amounts of coal. In this study, an effective monitoring and prediction system based on internet was developed and implemented to prevent losses and environmental problems. The system was performed in a coal stockpile with 5 m width, 10 m length, 3 m height, and having 120 t of weight. The inner temperature data of the stockpile was recorded by 17 temperature sensors placed inside the stockpile at certain points. Additionally, the data relating to the air temperature, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, and wind direction that are the parameters affecting the coal stockpile were also recorded. The recorded values were analyzed with artificial neural network and Statistical modeling methods for prediction of spontaneous combustion. Real-time measurement values and model outputs were published with a web page on internet. The internet-based system can also provide real-time monitoring (combustion alarms, system status) and tele-controlling (Parameter adjusting, system control) through internet exclusively with a standard web browser without the need of any additional software.

  3. Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

    PubMed

    Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

    2014-09-01

    Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology.

  4. Network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories for earthquake prediction research in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhuri, Hirok; Barman, Chiranjib; Iyengar, A.; Ghose, Debasis; Sen, Prasanta; Sinha, Bikash

    2013-08-01

    Present paper deals with a brief review of the research carried out to develop multi-parametric gas-geochemical monitoring facilities dedicated to earthquake prediction research in India by installing a network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories at different regions of the country. In an attempt to detect earthquake precursors, the concentrations of helium, argon, nitrogen, methane, radon-222 (222Rn), polonium-218 (218Po), and polonium-214 (214Po) emanating from hydrothermal systems are monitored continuously and round the clock at these observatories. In this paper, we make a cross correlation study of a number of geochemical anomalies recorded at these observatories. With the data received from each of the above observatories we attempt to make a time series analysis to relate magnitude and epicentral distance locations through statistical methods, empirical formulations that relate the area of influence to earthquake scale. Application of the linear and nonlinear statistical techniques in the recorded geochemical data sets reveal a clear signature of long-range correlation in the data sets.

  5. Predictive combinations of monitor alarms preceding in-hospital code blue events.

    PubMed

    Hu, Xiao; Sapo, Monica; Nenov, Val; Barry, Tod; Kim, Sunghan; Do, Duc H; Boyle, Noel; Martin, Neil

    2012-10-01

    Bedside monitors are ubiquitous in acute care units of modern healthcare enterprises. However, they have been criticized for generating an excessive number of false positive alarms causing alarm fatigue among care givers and potentially compromising patient safety. We hypothesize that combinations of regular monitor alarms denoted as SuperAlarm set may be more indicative of ongoing patient deteriorations and hence predictive of in-hospital code blue events. The present work develops and assesses an alarm mining approach based on finding frequent combinations of single alarms that are also specific to code blue events to compose a SuperAlarm set. We use 4-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) to investigate the influence of four algorithm parameters on the performance of the data mining approach. The results are obtained from millions of monitor alarms from a cohort of 223 adult code blue and 1768 control patients using a multiple 10-fold cross-validation experiment setup. Using the optimal setting of parameters determined in the cross-validation experiment, final SuperAlarm sets are mined from the training data and used on an independent test data set to simulate running a SuperAlarm set against live regular monitor alarms. The ANOVA shows that the content of a SuperAlarm set is influenced by a subset of key algorithm parameters. Simulation of the extracted SuperAlarm set shows that it can predict code blue events one hour ahead with sensitivity between 66.7% and 90.9% while producing false SuperAlarms for control patients that account for between 2.2% and 11.2% of regular monitor alarms depending on user-supplied acceptable false positive rate. We conclude that even though the present work is still preliminary due to the usage of a moderately-sized database to test our hypothesis it represents an effort to develop algorithms to alleviate the alarm fatigue issue in a unique way. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Absent otoacoustic emissions predict otitis media in young Aboriginal children: A birth cohort study in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children in an arid zone of Western Australia

    PubMed Central

    Lehmann, Deborah; Weeks, Sharon; Jacoby, Peter; Elsbury, Dimity; Finucane, Janine; Stokes, Annette; Monck, Ruth; Coates, Harvey

    2008-01-01

    Background Otitis media (OM) is the most common paediatric illness for which antibiotics are prescribed. In Australian Aboriginal children OM is frequently asymptomatic and starts at a younger age, is more common and more likely to result in hearing loss than in non-Aboriginal children. Absent transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs) may predict subsequent risk of OM. Methods 100 Aboriginal and 180 non-Aboriginal children in a semi-arid zone of Western Australia were followed regularly from birth to age 2 years. Tympanometry was conducted at routine field follow-up from age 3 months. Routine clinical examination by an ENT specialist was to be done 3 times and hearing assessment by an audiologist twice. TEOAEs were measured at ages <1 and 1–2 months. Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate the association between absent TEOAEs and subsequent risk of OM. Results At routine ENT specialist clinics, OM was detected in 55% of 184 examinations in Aboriginal children and 26% of 392 examinations in non-Aboriginal children; peak prevalence was 72% at age 5–9 months in Aboriginal children and 40% at 10–14 months in non-Aboriginal children. Moderate-severe hearing loss was present in 32% of 47 Aboriginal children and 7% of 120 non-Aboriginal children aged 12 months or more. TEOAE responses were present in 90% (46/51) of Aboriginal children and 99% (120/121) of non-Aboriginal children aged <1 month and in 62% (21/34) and 93% (108/116), respectively, in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children at age 1–2 months. Aboriginal children who failed TEOAE at age 1–2 months were 2.6 times more likely to develop OM subsequently than those who passed. Overall prevalence of type B tympanograms at field follow-up was 50% (n = 78) in Aboriginal children and 20% (n = 95) in non-Aboriginal children. Conclusion The burden of middle ear disease is high in all children, but particularly in Aboriginal children, one-third of whom suffer from moderate-severe hearing

  7. Prediction of Tumor Recurrence and Therapy Monitoring Using Ultrasound-Guided Photoacoustic Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Mallidi, Srivalleesha; Watanabe, Kohei; Timerman, Dmitriy; Schoenfeld, David; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2015-01-01

    Selection and design of individualized treatments remains a key goal in cancer therapeutics; prediction of response and tumor recurrence following a given therapy provides a basis for subsequent personalized treatment design. We demonstrate an approach towards this goal with the example of photodynamic therapy (PDT) as the treatment modality and photoacoustic imaging (PAI) as a non-invasive, response and disease recurrence monitor in a murine model of glioblastoma (GBM). PDT is a photochemistry-based, clinically-used technique that consumes oxygen to generate cytotoxic species, thus causing changes in blood oxygen saturation (StO2). We hypothesize that this change in StO2 can be a surrogate marker for predicting treatment efficacy and tumor recurrence. PAI is a technique that can provide a 3D atlas of tumor StO2 by measuring oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin. We demonstrate that tumors responding to PDT undergo approximately 85% change in StO2 by 24-hrs post-therapy while there is no significant change in StO2 values in the non-responding group. Furthermore, the 3D tumor StO2 maps predicted whether a tumor was likely to regrow at a later time point post-therapy. Information on the likelihood of tumor regrowth that normally would have been available only upon actual regrowth (10-30 days post treatment) in a xenograft tumor model, was available within 24-hrs of treatment using PAI, thus making early intervention a possibility. Given the advances and push towards availability of PAI in the clinical settings, the results of this study encourage applicability of PAI as an important step to guide and monitor therapies (e.g. PDT, radiation, anti-angiogenic) involving a change in StO2. PMID:25553116

  8. Experimental results on rock resistivity and its applications in monitoring and predicting natural disasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Jianguo; Zhu, Tao; Tang, Baolin

    2017-04-01

    There have been many earthquakes occurring in Chinese Mainland. These earthquakes, especially large earthquakes, often cause immeasurable loss. For instance, the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake killed 70, 000 people and caused 17, 000 people missing. It is well known that this earthquake was not predicted. Why? Were there no precursors? After analyzing the geo-electrical resistivity recording at Chengdu station which is only about 36 km to the epicenter, we find that resistivity had changed abnormally very significantly along NE direction but no outstanding abnormal changes had been observed along NW direction before the earthquake. Perhaps this non-consistent changes result in that this earthquake was not predicted. However, in another standpoint, can another observation way be found to supplement the current geo-electrical resistivity observation in Chinese Mainland in order to improve the probability of catching the precursor? This motivates us to conduct experiments in lab and field. Apparent resistivity data are acquired along three common-midpoint measuring lines during the fixed-rate uniaxial compression on two sets of dry man-made samples and a Magnetite sample. We construct the relative resistivity change images (RRCIs). Our results indicate that all RRCIs show a trending change with stress: with the increase of stress, the resistivity-decreased region (RDR) in the RRCIs shrinks/expands, while the resistivity-increased region (RIR) expands/shrinks gradually, which is in agreement with the field experimental results of earthquake monitoring (Feng et al., 2001). Our results encourage us to conclude that the trending changes in RRCI with stress could probably become a useful indicator in monitoring and predicting earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and large-scale geologic movements. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, Grant 41574083).

  9. Prediction of UV spectra and UV-radiation damage in actual plasma etching processes using on-wafer monitoring technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jinnai, Butsurin; Fukuda, Seiichi; Ohtake, Hiroto; Samukawa, Seiji

    2010-02-01

    UV radiation during plasma processing affects the surface of materials. Nevertheless, the interaction of UV photons with surface is not clearly understood because of the difficulty in monitoring photons during plasma processing. For this purpose, we have previously proposed an on-wafer monitoring technique for UV photons. For this study, using the combination of this on-wafer monitoring technique and a neural network, we established a relationship between the data obtained from the on-wafer monitoring technique and UV spectra. Also, we obtained absolute intensities of UV radiation by calibrating arbitrary units of UV intensity with a 126 nm excimer lamp. As a result, UV spectra and their absolute intensities could be predicted with the on-wafer monitoring. Furthermore, we developed a prediction system with the on-wafer monitoring technique to simulate UV-radiation damage in dielectric films during plasma etching. UV-induced damage in SiOC films was predicted in this study. Our prediction results of damage in SiOC films shows that UV spectra and their absolute intensities are the key cause of damage in SiOC films. In addition, UV-radiation damage in SiOC films strongly depends on the geometry of the etching structure. The on-wafer monitoring technique should be useful in understanding the interaction of UV radiation with surface and in optimizing plasma processing by controlling UV radiation.

  10. Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth A. Yackly

    2005-12-01

    The ''Enabling & Information Technology To Increase RAM for Advanced Powerplants'' program, by DOE request, was re-directed, de-scoped to two tasks, shortened to a 2-year period of performance, and refocused to develop, validate and accelerate the commercial use of enabling materials technologies and sensors for coal/IGCC powerplants. The new program was re-titled ''Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants''. This final report summarizes the work accomplished from March 1, 2003 to March 31, 2004 on the four original tasks, and the work accomplished from April 1, 2004 to July 30, 2005 on the two re-directed tasks. The program Tasks are summarized below: Task 1--IGCC Environmental Impact on high Temperature Materials: The first task was refocused to address IGCC environmental impacts on high temperature materials used in gas turbines. This task screened material performance and quantified the effects of high temperature erosion and corrosion of hot gas path materials in coal/IGCC applications. The materials of interest included those in current service as well as advanced, high-performance alloys and coatings. Task 2--Material In-Service Health Monitoring: The second task was reduced in scope to demonstrate new technologies to determine the inservice health of advanced technology coal/IGCC powerplants. The task focused on two critical sensing needs for advanced coal/IGCC gas turbines: (1) Fuel Quality Sensor to rapidly determine the fuel heating value for more precise control of the gas turbine, and detection of fuel impurities that could lead to rapid component degradation. (2) Infra-Red Pyrometer to continuously measure the temperature of gas turbine buckets, nozzles, and combustor hardware. Task 3--Advanced Methods for Combustion Monitoring and Control: The third task was originally to develop and validate advanced monitoring and control methods for coal/IGCC gas turbine combustion systems. This task was

  11. Accurate prediction of energy expenditure using a shoe-based activity monitor.

    PubMed

    Sazonova, Nadezhda; Browning, Raymond C; Sazonov, Edward

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a method for predicting energy expenditure (EE) using a footwear-based system with integrated accelerometer and pressure sensors. We developed a footwear-based device with an embedded accelerometer and insole pressure sensors for the prediction of EE. The data from the device can be used to perform accurate recognition of major postures and activities and to estimate EE using the acceleration, pressure, and posture/activity classification information in a branched algorithm without the need for individual calibration. We measured EE via indirect calorimetry as 16 adults (body mass index=19-39 kg·m) performed various low- to moderate-intensity activities and compared measured versus predicted EE using several models based on the acceleration and pressure signals. Inclusion of pressure data resulted in better accuracy of EE prediction during static postures such as sitting and standing. The activity-based branched model that included predictors from accelerometer and pressure sensors (BACC-PS) achieved the lowest error (e.g., root mean squared error (RMSE)=0.69 METs) compared with the accelerometer-only-based branched model BACC (RMSE=0.77 METs) and nonbranched model (RMSE=0.94-0.99 METs). Comparison of EE prediction models using data from both legs versus models using data from a single leg indicates that only one shoe needs to be equipped with sensors. These results suggest that foot acceleration combined with insole pressure measurement, when used in an activity-specific branched model, can accurately estimate the EE associated with common daily postures and activities. The accuracy and unobtrusiveness of a footwear-based device may make it an effective physical activity monitoring tool.

  12. Performance of ANFIS versus MLP-NN dissolved oxygen prediction models in water quality monitoring.

    PubMed

    Najah, A; El-Shafie, A; Karim, O A; El-Shafie, Amr H

    2014-02-01

    We discuss the accuracy and performance of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in training and prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. The model was used to analyze historical data generated through continuous monitoring of water quality parameters at several stations on the Johor River to predict DO concentrations. Four water quality parameters were selected for ANFIS modeling, including temperature, pH, nitrate (NO3) concentration, and ammoniacal nitrogen concentration (NH3-NL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the input parameters. The inputs with the greatest effect were those related to oxygen content (NO3) or oxygen demand (NH3-NL). Temperature was the parameter with the least effect, whereas pH provided the lowest contribution to the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the model, three statistical indices were used: the coefficient of determination (R (2)), the mean absolute prediction error, and the correlation coefficient. The performance of the ANFIS model was compared with an artificial neural network model. The ANFIS model was capable of providing greater accuracy, particularly in the case of extreme events.

  13. Lumped Parameter Modeling as a Predictive Tool for a Battery Status Monitor

    SciTech Connect

    Jon P. Christophersen; Chester G. Motloch; Chinh D. Ho; John L. Morrison; Ronald C. Fenton; Vincent S. Battaglia; Tien Q. Duong

    2003-10-01

    The Advanced Technology Development Program is currently evaluating the performance of the second generation of lithium-ion cells (i.e., Gen 2 cells). Both the Gen 2 Baseline and Variant C cells are tested in accordance with the cell-specific test plan, and are removed at roughly equal power fade increments and sent for destructive diagnostic analysis. The diagnostic laboratories did not need all test cells for analysis, and returned five spare cells to the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). INEEL used these cells for special pulse testing at various duty cycles, amplitudes, and durations to investigate the usefulness of the lumped parameter model (LPM) as a predictive tool in a battery status monitor (BSM). The LPM is a simplified linear model that accurately predicts the voltage response during certain pulse conditions. A database of parameter trends should enable dynamic predictions of state-of-charge and state-of-health conditions during in-vehicle pulsing. This information could be used by the BSM to provide accurate information to the vehicle control system.

  14. Prediction of the lens lifetime by monitoring lens degradation on laser-based microlithography tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michaeli, Albert; Rosner, Eylon; Root, Yehuda; Duenias, Hagay; Rubin, Shai

    2005-05-01

    The bulk stability of the lens material in Deep-UV lithography (Fused Silica and Calcium Fluoride), as well as the susceptibility of the lens anti-reflection coating to a thin layer of chemical contamination during laser irradiation over long period of time, are the keys for advanced lithography systems lifetime. Lens degradation impacts laser-based exposure systems" performance and therefore affects the product quality. There is a need for careful monitoring and prediction of lens lifetimes. This paper describes a method to calculate the degradation rate of optics and the lifetime prediction of these systems, along with some possible mechanisms for imaging degradation and factors that accelerate the degradation process. Currently, 'Pulse count' methods are used for such calculation; here we describe a new 'Energy based' method equal to 'Cumulative energy' through the projection lens. The paper compares the two methods using actual cases and shows the benefits of using the proposed method. We also suggest some new ways to deal with the problem. In addition, we report the learning from a project which entails developing a software application for automatic continuous tracking of degradation rates as well as the lens lifetime prediction across all Intel's laser based lithography tools.

  15. Monitors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, David

    1984-01-01

    Provides guidelines for selecting a monitor to suit specific applications, explains the process by which graphics images are produced on a CRT monitor, and describes four types of flat-panel displays being used in the newest lap-sized portable computers. A comparison chart provides prices and specifications for over 80 monitors. (MBR)

  16. Multiscale Modeling of Advanced Materials for Damage Prediction and Structural Health Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkowski, Luke

    Advanced aerospace materials, including fiber reinforced polymer and ceramic matrix composites, are increasingly being used in critical and demanding applications, challenging the current damage prediction, detection, and quantification methodologies. Multiscale computational models offer key advantages over traditional analysis techniques and can provide the necessary capabilities for the development of a comprehensive virtual structural health monitoring (SHM) framework. Virtual SHM has the potential to drastically improve the design and analysis of aerospace components through coupling the complementary capabilities of models able to predict the initiation and propagation of damage under a wide range of loading and environmental scenarios, simulate interrogation methods for damage detection and quantification, and assess the health of a structure. A major component of the virtual SHM framework involves having micromechanics-based multiscale composite models that can provide the elastic, inelastic, and damage behavior of composite material systems under mechanical and thermal loading conditions and in the presence of microstructural complexity and variability. Quantification of the role geometric and architectural variability in the composite microstructure plays in the local and global composite behavior is essential to the development of appropriate scale-dependent unit cells and boundary conditions for the multiscale model. Once the composite behavior is predicted and variability effects assessed, wave-based SHM simulation models serve to provide knowledge on the probability of detection and characterization accuracy of damage present in the composite. The research presented in this dissertation provides the foundation for a comprehensive SHM framework for advanced aerospace materials. The developed models enhance the prediction of damage formation as a result of ceramic matrix composite processing, improve the understanding of the effects of architectural and

  17. Sydney, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2002-06-11

    This image was acquired on October 12, 2002 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER will image Earth for the next 6 years to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA03498

  18. An integrated Modelling framework to monitor and predict trends of agricultural management (iMSoil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Armin; Della Peruta, Raneiro; Schaepman, Michael; Gomez, Marta; Mann, Stefan; Schulin, Rainer

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural systems lay at the interface between natural ecosystems and the anthroposphere. Various drivers induce pressures on the agricultural systems, leading to changes in farming practice. The limitation of available land and the socio-economic drivers are likely to result in further intensification of agricultural land management, with implications on fertilization practices, soil and pest management, as well as crop and livestock production. In order to steer the development into desired directions, tools are required by which the effects of these pressures on agricultural management and resulting impacts on soil functioning can be detected as early as possible, future scenarios predicted and suitable management options and policies defined. In this context, the use of integrated models can play a major role in providing long-term predictions of soil quality and assessing the sustainability of agricultural soil management. Significant progress has been made in this field over the last decades. Some of these integrated modelling frameworks include biophysical parameters, but often the inherent characteristics and detailed processes of the soil system have been very simplified. The development of such tools has been hampered in the past by a lack of spatially explicit soil and land management information at regional scale. The iMSoil project, funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the national research programme NRP68 "soil as a resource" (www.nrp68.ch) aims at developing and implementing an integrated modeling framework (IMF) which can overcome the limitations mentioned above, by combining socio-economic, agricultural land management, and biophysical models, in order to predict the long-term impacts of different socio-economic scenarios on the soil quality. In our presentation we briefly outline the approach that is based on an interdisciplinary modular framework that builds on already existing monitoring tools and model components that are

  19. Heavy metal monitoring, analysis and prediction in lakes and rivers: state of the art.

    PubMed

    Elzwayie, Adnan; Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin; Allawi, Mohammed Falah; El-Shafie, Ahmed

    2017-03-29

    Several research efforts have been conducted to monitor and analyze the impact of environmental factors on the heavy metal concentrations and physicochemical properties of water bodies (lakes and rivers) in different countries worldwide. This article provides a general overview of the previous works that have been completed in monitoring and analyzing heavy metals. The intention of this review is to introduce the historical studies to distinguish and understand the previous challenges faced by researchers in analyzing heavy metal accumulation. In addition, this review introduces a survey on the importance of time increment sampling (monthly and/or seasonally) to comprehend and determine the rate of change of different parameters on a monthly and seasonal basis. Furthermore, suggestions are made for future research to achieve more understandable figures on heavy metal accumulation by considering climate conditions. Thus, the intent of the current study is the provision of reliable models for predicting future heavy metal accumulation in water bodies in different climates and pollution conditions so that water management can be achieved using intelligent proactive strategies and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques.

  20. Monitoring the incidence and causes of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia: annual report of the OzFoodNet Network, 2008.

    PubMed

    2009-12-01

    In 2008, OzFoodNetsites reported 25,260 notifications of 9 diseases or conditions that are commonly transmitted by food. The most frequently notified infections were Campylobacter (15,535 notifications) and Salmonella (8,310 notifications). Public health authorities provided complete serotype and phage type information on 94% of all Salmonella infections in 2008. The most common Salmonella serotype notified in Australia during 2008 was Salmonella Typhimurium, and the most common phage type was S. Typhimurium 135. During 2008, OzFoodNet sites reported 1,545 outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness; affecting 25,555 people and resulting in 691 people being hospitalised. There were 99 deaths during these outbreaks. The majority (83%, 1,276/1,545) of outbreaks were due to person-to-person spread, but 7% (104/1,545) were transmitted by contaminated food. Foodborne outbreaks affected 1,454 persons including 96 hospitalisations. Eleven deaths were reported during these outbreaks. For these foodborne outbreaks, Salmonella was the most common aetiological agent and restaurants were the most common setting where foods were prepared. Twenty of these foodborne outbreaks were related to the consumption of eggs; the majority (n = 18) of these outbreaks were due to various phage types of S. Typhimurium. This report summarises the incidence of disease potentially transmitted by food in Australia and details outbreaks associated with various food vehicles in 2008. These data assist agencies to identify emerging disease, develop food safety policies, and prevent foodborne illness.

  1. Toward a categorical drought prediction system based on U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and climate forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Zengchao; Xia, Youlong; Luo, Lifeng; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua

    2017-08-01

    Disastrous impacts of recent drought events around the world have led to extensive efforts in drought monitoring and prediction. Various drought information systems have been developed with different indicators to provide early drought warning. The climate forecast from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) has been among the most salient progress in climate prediction and its application for drought prediction has been considerably growing. Since its development in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has played a critical role in drought monitoring with different drought categories to characterize drought severity, which has been employed to aid decision making by a wealth of users such as natural resource managers and authorities. Due to wide applications of USDM, the development of drought prediction with USDM drought categories would greatly aid decision making. This study presented a categorical drought prediction system for predicting USDM drought categories in the U.S., based on the initial conditions from USDM and seasonal climate forecasts from NMME. Results of USDM drought categories predictions in the U.S. demonstrate the potential of the prediction system, which is expected to contribute to operational early drought warning in the U.S.

  2. Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

    PubMed Central

    Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

    2015-01-01

    Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

  3. Remote health monitoring: predicting outcome success based on contextual features for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Liu, Jason J; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have produced a plethora of remote health monitoring (RHM) systems designed to enhance the care of patients with chronic diseases. Many RHM systems are designed to improve patient risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including physiological parameters such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, and lipid profiles such as low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL). There are several patient characteristics that could be determining factors for a patient's RHM outcome success, but these characteristics have been largely unidentified. In this paper, we analyze results from an RHM system deployed in a six month Women's Heart Health study of 90 patients, and apply advanced feature selection and machine learning algorithms to identify patients' key baseline contextual features and build effective prediction models that help determine RHM outcome success. We introduce Wanda-CVD, a smartphone-based RHM system designed to help participants with cardiovascular disease risk factors by motivating participants through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. We analyze key contextual features that secure positive patient outcomes in both physiological parameters and lipid profiles. Results from the Women's Heart Health study show that health threat of heart disease, quality of life, family history, stress factors, social support, and anxiety at baseline all help predict patient RHM outcome success.

  4. Autonomy support and responsibility-sharing predict blood glucose monitoring frequency among youth with diabetes.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yelena P; Rausch, Joseph; Rohan, Jennifer M; Hood, Korey K; Pendley, Jennifer S; Delamater, Alan; Drotar, Dennis

    2014-10-01

    Adolescence poses a number of special challenges for youth and their families managing the Type 1 diabetes medical regimen. Little is known on how family and youth factors and management of the regimen change over the course of early adolescence and predict adherence to the regimen during this developmental period. Youth with Type 1 diabetes (n = 239) and their maternal caregivers completed measures of diabetes-specific autonomy support, diabetes-related family conflict, regimen responsibility, and blood glucose monitoring frequency (BGMF) at 4 timepoints over a 3-year period. Autonomy support and BGMF significantly decreased over time and responsibility for the diabetes regimen shifted from the caregiver toward youth over time. Significant changes in perceived family conflict over time differed depending on the reporter. Baseline BGMF, changes in caregiver autonomy support, and changes in responsibility for the regimen significantly predicted changes in BGMF over time. This study documents changes in autonomy support, youth responsibility for the diabetes regimen, and BGMF during the transition into early adolescence. Higher levels of caregiver autonomy support preserve BGMF during a developmental period in which BGMF typically deteriorates.

  5. Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Xue, X.; Flamig, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A Hydrometeorological Extreme Mapping and Prediction System (HyXtreme-MaP), initially built upon the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, is driven by real-time quasi-global TRMM/GPM satellites and by the US Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar network with dual-polarimetric upgrade to simulate streamflow, actual ET, soil moisture and other hydrologic variables at 1/8th degree resolution quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) and at 250-meter 2.5-mintue resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS: http://flash.ou.edu).­ Multifaceted and collaborative by-design, this end-to-end research framework aims to not only integrate data, models, and applications but also brings people together (i.e., NOAA, NASA, University researchers, and end-users). This presentation will review the progresses, challenges and opportunities of such HyXTREME-MaP System used to monitor global floods and droughts, and also to predict flash floods over the CONUS.

  6. Ocean currents influence the genetic structure of an intertidal mollusc in southeastern Australia - implications for predicting the movement of passive dispersers across a marine biogeographic barrier.

    PubMed

    Miller, Adam D; Versace, Vincent L; Matthews, Ty G; Montgomery, Steven; Bowie, Kate C

    2013-05-01

    Major disjunctions among marine communities in southeastern Australia have been well documented, although explanations for biogeographic structuring remain uncertain. Converging ocean currents, environmental gradients, and habitat discontinuities have been hypothesized as likely drivers of structuring in many species, although the extent to which species are affected appears largely dependent on specific life histories and ecologies. Understanding these relationships is critical to the management of native and invasive species, and the preservation of evolutionary processes that shape biodiversity in this region. In this study we test the direct influence of ocean currents on the genetic structure of a passive disperser across a major biogeographic barrier. Donax deltoides (Veneroida: Donacidae) is an intertidal, soft-sediment mollusc and an ideal surrogate for testing this relationship, given its lack of habitat constraints in this region, and its immense dispersal potential driven by year-long spawning and long-lived planktonic larvae. We assessed allele frequencies at 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci across 11 sample locations spanning the barrier region and identified genetic structure consistent with the major ocean currents of southeastern Australia. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA sequence data indicated no evidence of genetic structuring, but signatures of a species range expansion corresponding with historical inundations of the Bassian Isthmus. Our results indicate that ocean currents are likely to be the most influential factor affecting the genetic structure of D. deltoides and a likely physical barrier for passive dispersing marine fauna generally in southeastern Australia.

  7. Ocean currents influence the genetic structure of an intertidal mollusc in southeastern Australia – implications for predicting the movement of passive dispersers across a marine biogeographic barrier

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Adam D; Versace, Vincent L; Matthews, Ty G; Montgomery, Steven; Bowie, Kate C

    2013-01-01

    Major disjunctions among marine communities in southeastern Australia have been well documented, although explanations for biogeographic structuring remain uncertain. Converging ocean currents, environmental gradients, and habitat discontinuities have been hypothesized as likely drivers of structuring in many species, although the extent to which species are affected appears largely dependent on specific life histories and ecologies. Understanding these relationships is critical to the management of native and invasive species, and the preservation of evolutionary processes that shape biodiversity in this region. In this study we test the direct influence of ocean currents on the genetic structure of a passive disperser across a major biogeographic barrier. Donax deltoides (Veneroida: Donacidae) is an intertidal, soft-sediment mollusc and an ideal surrogate for testing this relationship, given its lack of habitat constraints in this region, and its immense dispersal potential driven by year-long spawning and long-lived planktonic larvae. We assessed allele frequencies at 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci across 11 sample locations spanning the barrier region and identified genetic structure consistent with the major ocean currents of southeastern Australia. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA sequence data indicated no evidence of genetic structuring, but signatures of a species range expansion corresponding with historical inundations of the Bassian Isthmus. Our results indicate that ocean currents are likely to be the most influential factor affecting the genetic structure of D. deltoides and a likely physical barrier for passive dispersing marine fauna generally in southeastern Australia. PMID:23762511

  8. How many days of monitoring predict physical activity and sedentary behaviour in older adults?

    PubMed

    Hart, Teresa L; Swartz, Ann M; Cashin, Susan E; Strath, Scott J

    2011-06-16

    The number of days of pedometer or accelerometer data needed to reliably assess physical activity (PA) is important for research that examines the relationship with health. While this important research has been completed in young to middle-aged adults, data is lacking in older adults. Further, data determining the number of days of self-reports PA data is also void. The purpose of this study was to examine the number of days needed to predict habitual PA and sedentary behaviour across pedometer, accelerometer, and physical activity log (PA log) data in older adults. Participants (52 older men and women; age = 69.3 ± 7.4 years, range= 55-86 years) wore a Yamax Digiwalker SW-200 pedometer and an ActiGraph 7164 accelerometer while completing a PA log for 21 consecutive days. Mean differences each instrument and intensity between days of the week were examined using separate repeated measures analysis of variance for with pairwise comparisons. Spearman-Brown Prophecy Formulae based on Intraclass Correlations of .80, .85, .90 and .95 were used to predict the number of days of accelerometer or pedometer wear or PA log daily records needed to represent total PA, light PA, moderate-to-vigorous PA, and sedentary behaviour. Results of this study showed that three days of accelerometer data, four days of pedometer data, or four days of completing PA logs are needed to accurately predict PA levels in older adults. When examining time spent in specific intensities of PA, fewer days of data are needed for accurate prediction of time spent in that activity for ActiGraph but more for the PA log. To accurately predict average daily time spent in sedentary behaviour, five days of ActiGraph data are needed. The number days of objective (pedometer and ActiGraph) and subjective (PA log) data needed to accurately estimate daily PA in older adults was relatively consistent. Despite no statistical differences between days for total PA by the pedometer and ActiGraph, the magnitude of

  9. The estimation of visceral adipose tissue with a body composition monitor predicts the metabolic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Baudrand, R; Domínguez, J M; Tabilo, C; Figueroa, D; Jimenez, M; Eugenin, C; Carvajal, C; Moreno, M

    2013-07-01

    Central obesity has a higher risk of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and cardiovascular diseases. It is estimated by measuring waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), which are operator-dependent. The present study aimed to validate a body composition monitor (BCM) as a tool for estimating visceral adipose tissue (VAT), as well as to assess its capacity to predict the MetS and its correlation with anthropometric parameters. We measured WC, WHR and body mass index (BMI) in 60 recruited subjects. BCM estimated VAT (1-30 points). Body composition and resting energy expenditure (REE) were compared with bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and indirect calorimetry, respectively. VAT was estimated by BCM (range 1-30 points), We evaluated the capability of VAT, WC, BMI and WHR to predict the MetS by ATP-III criteria. The mean (SD) age of subjects was 36.8 (12.9) years, 80% were female, and 47% had the MetS. Body composition and REE estimated by BCM had a significant correlation with BIA (r = 0.85-0.91, P< 0.001) and REE (r = 0.86, P < 0.001), respectively, even after adjusting by sex. VAT estimation by BCM was positively correlated with WC (r = 0.75, P< 0.001) and WHR (r = 0.61, P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curves to predict the MetS was 0.93 for VAT, 0.81 for WC, 0.76 for WHR and 0.74 for BMI. VAT ≥10 points had a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 82% for predicting the MetS. VAT estimation by BCM efficiently predicts the MetS and correlates with anthropometric parameters of central obesity. Its routine use could facilitate cardiovascular risk estimation and follow-up in overweight and obese patients in ambulatory practice. © 2013 The Authors Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  10. Remote infrasound monitoring of Mount Etna: Observed and predicted network detection capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tailpied, Dorianne; Le Pichon, Alexis; Marchetti, Emanuele; Ripepe, Maurizio; Kallel, Mohamed; Ceranna, Lars

    2013-04-01

    Volcanic eruptions are unique and valuable calibrating sources of infrasonic waves worldwide detected by the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) and other experimental stations. Building a comprehensive database of volcanic signals is likely to help the scientific community to better characterize eruptive sequences and may help to prevent eruption disasters while on a longer term mitigate the impact of ash clouds on aviation. In this study, we assess the detection capability of the existing infrasound network to remotely detect the eruptive activity of Mount Etna with a high level of confidence, and predict the performance of the future ARISE infrastructure network (Atmospheric dynamics InfraStructure in Europe). This well-instrumented volcano offers a unique opportunity to validate attenuation models using multiyear near-and-far field recordings. The seasonal trend in the number of detections of Etna at the IS48 IMS station (Tunisia) is correlated to fine temporal fluctuations of the stratospheric waveguide structure. The modeling results are consistent with the observed detection capability of the existing network. In summer, during the downwind season, a minimum detectable amplitude of ~10 Pa at a reference distance of 1 km from the source is predicted. In winter, when upwind propagation occurs, detection thresholds increase up to ~100 Pa. When adding four experimental arrays to the existing IMS network, thresholds decrease down to ~20 Pa in winter. The simulation results provide here a realistic description of long-range infrasound propagation and allow predicting fine temporal fluctuations in the European infrasound network performance with potential application for civil aviation safety.

  11. Prediction of endotracheal intubation outcome in opioid-poisoned patients: A clinical approach to bispectral monitoring.

    PubMed

    Eizadi-Mood, Nastaran; Yaraghi, Ahmad; Alikhasi, Mahsa; Jabalameli, Mitra; Farsaei, Shadi; Sabzghabaee, Ali Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    Some opioid-poisoned patients do not respond appropriately to naloxone; consequently, intubation is required. Although various measures have been used to evaluate the level of consciousness of poisoned patients, no study has assessed the role of the bispectral index (BIS) to ascertain the depth of anesthesia in opioid-poisoned patients who require endotracheal intubation. To compare BIS scores between opioid-poisoned patients with and without intubation, and to determine the BIS cut-off point for endotracheal intubation in these patients. In the present cross-sectional study, conducted in an Iranian university referral hospital for poisoning emergencies between 2012 and 2013, opioid-poisoned patients (n=41) were divided into two groups according to their requirement for endotracheal intubation. BIS analyses were performed at the time of admission and at the time of intubation for those who required it. In addition, electromyography and signal quality index were evaluated for all patients at the time of admission, and cardiorespiratory monitoring was performed during the hospitalization period. Using ROC curves, and sensitivity and specificity analyses, the optimal BIS cut-off point for prediction of intubation of these patients was determined. The optimal cut-off point for prediction of intubation was BIS ≤78, which had a sensitivity of 86.7% (95% CI 66.1 to 98.8) and specificity of 88.5% (95% CI 73.9% to 98.8%); the positive and negative predictive values were 81.2 % and 92%, respectively. BIS may be considered an acceptable index to determine the need for intubation in opioid-poisoned patients whose response to naloxone is inadequate.

  12. Utility of the theory of planned behavior to predict nursing staff blood pressure monitoring behaviours.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Joan M; Cook, Paul F; Ingram, Jennifer C

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate constructs from the theory of planned behavior (TPB, Ajzen 2002) - attitudes, sense of control, subjective norms and intentions - as predictors of accuracy in blood pressure monitoring. Despite numerous initiatives aimed at teaching blood pressure measurement techniques, many healthcare providers measure blood pressures incorrectly. Descriptive, cohort design. Medical assistants and licensed practical nurses were asked to complete a questionnaire on TPB variables. These nursing staff's patients had their blood pressures measured and completed a survey about techniques used to measure their blood pressure. We correlated nursing staff's responses on the TBP questionnaire with their intention to measure an accurate blood pressure and with the difference between their actual blood pressure measurement and a second measurement taken by a researcher immediately after the clinic visit. Patients' perceptions of MAs' and LPNs' blood pressure measurement techniques were examined descriptively. Perceived control and social norm predicted intention to measure an accurate blood pressure, with a negative relationship between knowledge and intention. Consistent with the TPB, intention was the only significant predictor of blood pressure measurement accuracy. Theory of planned behavior constructs predicted the healthcare providers' intention to measure blood pressure accurately and intention predicted the actual accuracy of systolic blood pressure measurement. However, participants' knowledge about blood pressure measurement had an unexpected negative relationship with their intentions. These findings have important implications for nursing education departments and organisations which traditionally invest significant time and effort in annual competency training focused on knowledge enhancement by staff. This study suggests that a better strategy might involve efforts to enhance providers' intention to change, particularly by changing social norms or increasing

  13. Monitoring the incidence and causes of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia: annual report of the OzFoodNet Network, 2009.

    PubMed

    2010-12-01

    In 2009, OzFoodNet sites reported 27,037 notifications of 9 diseases or conditions that are commonly transmitted by food. The most frequently notified infections were Campylobacter (15,973 notifications) and Salmonella (9,533 notifications). Public health authorities provided complete serotype and phage type information on 92% of all Salmonella infections in 2009. The most common Salmonella serotype notified in Australia during 2009 was Salmonella Typhimurium, and the most common phage type was S. Typhimurium 170/108. During 2009, OzFoodNet sites reported 1,820 outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness, which affected 36,426 people and resulted in 1240 people being hospitalised. There were 118 deaths during these outbreaks. The majority (82%, 1496/1820) of outbreaks were due to person-to-person spread, 9% (163/1820) were suspected or confirmed to have been transmitted by contaminated food and 9% (161/1820) were due to either waterborne transmission or outbreaks with an unknown mode of transmission. Foodborne outbreaks affected 2679 persons including 342 hospitalisations. Eight deaths were reported during these foodborne outbreaks. Salmonella was the most common aetiological agent in foodborne outbreaks and restaurants were the most common setting where foods were prepared. Eighteen outbreaks were related to dishes containing raw or undercooked eggs; the majority (n=14) due to various phage types of S. Typhimurium. This report summarises the incidence of disease potentially transmitted by food in Australia and details outbreaks associated with various food vehicles in 2009. These data assist agencies to identify emerging sources of disease, develop food safety policies, and prevent foodborne illness.

  14. Australia's Political Structure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sawer, Geoffrey

    1984-01-01

    Australia is an independent nation-state, federally constituted under a democratic parliamentary system. Being part of the Commonwealth of Nations, with feelings of loyalty to the Crown, Australia is also a democratic monarchy. Its political structure is discussed. (RM)

  15. Lake Mackay, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2014-10-27

    This image from NASA Terra spacecraft shows Lake Mackay, the largest of hundreds of ephemeral lakes scattered throughout Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and is the second largest lake in Australia.

  16. Is the incidence of heart attack still decreasing in Australia? Developing reliable methods for monitoring trends in myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease (AUS-MOCHA): a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Nedkoff, Lee; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael S T; Hung, Joseph; Mathur, Sushma; Beilby, John; Reynolds, Anna; Briffa, Tom G; Lopez, Derrick

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Accurate monitoring of acute coronary heart disease (CHD) is essential for understanding the effects of primary and secondary prevention and for planning of healthcare services. The ability to reliably monitor acute CHD has been affected by new diagnostic tests for myocardial infarction (MI) and changing clinical classifications and management of CHD. Our study will develop new and reliable methods for monitoring population trends in incidence, outcomes and health service usage for acute CHD and chest pain. Methods and analysis The study cohort of all CHD will be identified from the Western Australian Data Linkage System using state-wide data sets for emergency department presentation, hospitalisations and mortality data for 2002–2014. This core linked data set will be supplemented with data from hospital medical record reviews, pathology data and hospital pharmacy dispensing databases. The consistency over time of the coding of the different subgroups of CHD/chest pain (ST-elevation MI, non-ST elevation MI, unstable angina, stable angina, other CHD, non-CHD chest pain) in linked data will be assessed using these data sources, and an algorithm developed detailing groups in which temporal trends can be reliably measured. This algorithm will be used for measurement of trends in incidence and outcomes of acute CHD, and to develop further methods for monitoring acute CHD using unlinked and linked data with varying availability of hospitalisation history. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval has been obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committees of the WA Department of Health (#2016/23) and The University of Western Australia (RA/4/1/7230). Findings will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals, and presentation at national and international conferences. There will also be a strong platform for dissemination of new monitoring methods via collaboration with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare which will assist with

  17. WIFIRE: A Scalable Data-Driven Monitoring, Dynamic Prediction and Resilience Cyberinfrastructure for Wildfires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altintas, I.; Block, J.; Braun, H.; de Callafon, R. A.; Gollner, M. J.; Smarr, L.; Trouve, A.

    2013-12-01

    Recent studies confirm that climate change will cause wildfires to increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades especially for California and in much of the North American West. The most critical sustainability issue in the midst of these ever-changing dynamics is how to achieve a new social-ecological equilibrium of this fire ecology. Wildfire wind speeds and directions change in an instant, and first responders can only be effective when they take action as quickly as the conditions change. To deliver information needed for sustainable policy and management in this dynamically changing fire regime, we must capture these details to understand the environmental processes. We are building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WIFIRE, for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. The WIFIRE integrated CI system supports social-ecological resilience to the changing fire ecology regime in the face of urban dynamics and climate change. Networked observations, e.g., heterogeneous satellite data and real-time remote sensor data is integrated with computational techniques in signal processing, visualization, modeling and data assimilation to provide a scalable, technological, and educational solution to monitor weather patterns to predict a wildfire's Rate of Spread. Our collaborative WIFIRE team of scientists, engineers, technologists, government policy managers, private industry, and firefighters architects implement CI pathways that enable joint innovation for wildfire management. Scientific workflows are used as an integrative distributed programming model and simplify the implementation of engineering modules for data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization while allowing integration with large-scale computing facilities. WIFIRE will be scalable to users with different skill-levels via specialized web interfaces and user-specified alerts for environmental events broadcasted to receivers before

  18. Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in COAL IGCC Powerplants

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth A. Yackly

    2004-09-30

    The ''Enabling & Information Technology To Increase RAM for Advanced Powerplants'' program, by DOE request, has been re-directed, de-scoped to two tasks, shortened to a 2-year period of performance, and refocused to develop, validate and accelerate the commercial use of enabling materials technologies and sensors for Coal IGCC powerplants. The new program has been re-titled as ''Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants'' to better match the new scope. This technical progress report summarizes the work accomplished in the reporting period April 1, 2004 to August 31, 2004 on the revised Re-Directed and De-Scoped program activity. The program Tasks are: Task 1--IGCC Environmental Impact on high Temperature Materials: This first materials task has been refocused to address Coal IGCC environmental impacts on high temperature materials use in gas turbines and remains in the program. This task will screen material performance and quantify the effects of high temperature erosion and corrosion of hot gas path materials in Coal IGCC applications. The materials of interest will include those in current service as well as advanced, high-performance alloys and coatings. Task 2--Material In-Service Health Monitoring: This second task develops and demonstrates new sensor technologies to determine the in-service health of advanced technology Coal IGCC powerplants, and remains in the program with a reduced scope. Its focus is now on only two critical sensor need areas for advanced Coal IGCC gas turbines: (1) Fuel Quality Sensor for detection of fuel impurities that could lead to rapid component degradation, and a Fuel Heating Value Sensor to rapidly determine the fuel heating value for more precise control of the gas turbine, and (2) Infra-Red Pyrometer to continuously measure the temperature of gas turbine buckets, nozzles, and combustor hardware.

  19. A Cloud Based Framework For Monitoring And Predicting Subsurface System Behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Versteeg, R. J.; Rodzianko, A.; Johnson, D. V.; Soltanian, M. R.; Dwivedi, D.; Dafflon, B.; Tran, A. P.; Versteeg, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Subsurface system behavior is driven and controlled by the interplay of physical, chemical, and biological processes which occur at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Capabilities to monitor, understand and predict this behavior in an effective and timely manner are needed for both scientific purposes and for effective subsurface system management. Such capabilities require three elements: Models, Data and an enabling cyberinfrastructure, which allow users to use these models and data in an effective manner. Under a DOE Office of Science funded STTR award Subsurface Insights and LBNL have designed and implemented a cloud based predictive assimilation framework (PAF) which automatically ingests, controls quality and stores heterogeneous physical and chemical subsurface data and processes these data using different inversion and modeling codes to provide information on the current state and evolution of subsurface systems. PAF is implemented as a modular cloud based software application with five components: (1) data acquisition, (2) data management, (3) data assimilation and processing, (4) visualization and result delivery and (5) orchestration. Serverside PAF uses ZF2 (a PHP web application framework) and Python and both open source (ODM2) and in house developed data models. Clientside PAF uses CSS and JS to allow for interactive data visualization and analysis. Client side modularity (which allows for a responsive interface) of the system is achieved by implementing each core capability of PAF (such as data visualization, user configuration and control, electrical geophysical monitoring and email/SMS alerts on data streams) as a SPA (Single Page Application). One of the recent enhancements is the full integration of a number of flow and mass transport and parameter estimation codes (e.g., MODFLOW, MT3DMS, PHT3D, TOUGH, PFLOTRAN) in this framework. This integration allows for autonomous and user controlled modeling of hydrological and geochemical processes. In

  20. Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Endo, E.T.; Murray, T.

    1991-01-01

    Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to

  1. Use of mobile and passive badge air monitoring data for NOX and ozone air pollution spatial exposure prediction models.

    PubMed

    Xu, Wei; Riley, Erin A; Austin, Elena; Sasakura, Miyoko; Schaal, Lanae; Gould, Timothy R; Hartin, Kris; Simpson, Christopher D; Sampson, Paul D; Yost, Michael G; Larson, Timothy V; Xiu, Guangli; Vedal, Sverre

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution exposure prediction models can make use of many types of air monitoring data. Fixed location passive samples typically measure concentrations averaged over several days to weeks. Mobile monitoring data can generate near continuous concentration measurements. It is not known whether mobile monitoring data are suitable for generating well-performing exposure prediction models or how they compare with other types of monitoring data in generating exposure models. Measurements from fixed site passive samplers and mobile monitoring platform were made over a 2-week period in Baltimore in the summer and winter months in 2012. Performance of exposure prediction models for long-term nitrogen oxides (NOX) and ozone (O3) concentrations were compared using a state-of-the-art approach for model development based on land use regression (LUR) and geostatistical smoothing. Model performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV). Models performed well using the mobile peak traffic monitoring data for both NOX and O3, with LOOCV R(2)s of 0.70 and 0.71, respectively, in the summer, and 0.90 and 0.58, respectively, in the winter. Models using 2-week passive samples for NOX had LOOCV R(2)s of 0.60 and 0.65 in the summer and winter months, respectively. The passive badge sampling data were not adequate for developing models for O3. Mobile air monitoring data can be used to successfully build well-performing LUR exposure prediction models for NOX and O3 and are a better source of data for these models than 2-week passive badge data.

  2. Monitoring and assessment of ingestive chewing sounds for prediction of herbage intake rate in grazing cattle.

    PubMed

    Galli, J R; Cangiano, C A; Pece, M A; Larripa, M J; Milone, D H; Utsumi, S A; Laca, E A

    2017-10-10

    Accurate measurement of herbage intake rate is critical to advance knowledge of the ecology of grazing ruminants. This experiment tested the integration of behavioral and acoustic measurements of chewing and biting to estimate herbage dry matter intake (DMI) in dairy cows offered micro-swards of contrasting plant structure. Micro-swards constructed with plastic pots were offered to three lactating Holstein cows (608±24.9 kg of BW) in individual grazing sessions (n=48). Treatments were a factorial combination of two forage species (alfalfa and fescue) and two plant heights (tall=25±3.8 cm and short=12±1.9 cm) and were offered on a gradient of increasing herbage mass (10 to 30 pots) and number of bites (~10 to 40 bites). During each grazing session, sounds of biting and chewing were recorded with a wireless microphone placed on the cows' foreheads and a digital video camera to allow synchronized audio and video recordings. Dry matter intake rate was higher in tall alfalfa than in the other three treatments (32±1.6 v. 19±1.2 g/min). A high proportion of jaw movements in every grazing session (23 to 36%) were compound jaw movements (chew-bites) that appeared to be a key component of chewing and biting efficiency and of the ability of cows to regulate intake rate. Dry matter intake was accurately predicted based on easily observable behavioral and acoustic variables. Chewing sound energy measured as energy flux density (EFD) was linearly related to DMI, with 74% of EFD variation explained by DMI. Total chewing EFD, number of chew-bites and plant height (tall v. short) were the most important predictors of DMI. The best model explained 91% of the variation in DMI with a coefficient of variation of 17%. Ingestive sounds integrate valuable information to remotely monitor feeding behavior and predict DMI in grazing cows.

  3. Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; De, S.; Goswami, B. N.; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  4. Multi-Scale Monitoring and Prediction of System Responses to Biostimulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hubbard, Susan; Williams, Ken; Steefel, Carl; Long, Phil; Kinsong Chen, Slater, Lee; Banfield, Jill

    2006-04-05

    To advance solutions needed for remediation of DOE contaminated sites, approaches are needed that can elucidate and predict reactions associated with coupled biological, geochemical, and hydrological processes over a variety of spatial scales and in heterogeneous environments. Our laboratory experimental experiments, which were conducted under controlled conditions, suggest that geophysical methods have the potential for elucidating system transformations that often occur during remediation, such as the generation of gases and precipitates. In this new ERSP project, we will Integrate hydrological, biogeochemical, and geophysical expertise and approaches to: (1) Explore the potential of geophysical methods for detecting changes in physical, chemical, and biological properties at the field scale; and (2) Explore the joint use of reactive transport modeling and geophysical monitoring information for improvements in both methods. A brief review of our previously-conducted laboratory results are given in Section II. Section III describes the approach for our new project, which will have both laboratory and field-scale components. The field scale component will be conducted at the Rifle, CO. site, which is described in Section IV.

  5. A feasibility study on the predictive emission monitoring system applied to the Hsinta power plant of Taiwan Power Company.

    PubMed

    Chien, T W; Chu, H; Hsu, W C; Tseng, T K; Hsu, C H; Chen, K Y

    2003-08-01

    The continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) can monitor flue gas emissions continuously and instantaneously. However, it has the disadvantages of enormous cost, easily producing errors in sampling periods of bad weather, lagging response in variable ambient environments, and missing data in daily zero and span tests and maintenance. The concept of a predictive emission monitoring system (PEMS) is to use the operating parameters of combustion equipment through thermodynamic or statistical methods to construct a mathematic model that can predict emissions by a computer program. The goal of this study is to set up a PEMS in a gas-fired combined cycle power generation unit at the Hsinta station of Taiwan Power Co. The emissions to be monitored include nitrogen oxides (NOx) and oxygen (O2) in flue gas. The major variables of the predictive model were determined based on the combustion theory. The data of these variables then were analyzed to establish a regression model. From the regression results, the influences of these variables are discussed and the predicted values are compared with the CEMS data for accuracy. In addition, according to the cost information, the capital and operation and maintenance costs for a PEMS can be much lower than those for a CEMS.

  6. DoD-GEIS Rift Valley Fever Monitoring and Prediction System as a Tool for Defense and US Diplomacy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Tucker, Compton J.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Witt, Clara J.; Gaydos, Joel C.; Russell, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Over the last 10 years the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (GEIS) partnering with NASA'S Goddard Space Flight Center and USDA's USDA-Center for Medical, Agricultural & Veterinary Entomology established and have operated the Rift Valley fever Monitoring and Prediction System to monitor, predict and assess the risk of Rift Valley fever outbreaks and other vector-borne diseases over Africa and the Middle East. This system is built on legacy DoD basic research conducted by Walter Reed Army Institute of Research overseas laboratory (US Army Medical Research Unit-Kenya) and the operational satellite environmental monitoring by NASA GSFC. Over the last 10 years of operation the system has predicted outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, South Africa and Mauritania. The ability to predict an outbreak several months before it occurs provides early warning to protect deployed forces, enhance public health in concerned countries and is a valuable tool use.d by the State Department in US Diplomacy. At the international level the system has been used by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAD) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to support their monitoring, surveillance and response programs in the livestock sector and human health. This project is a successful testament of leveraging resources of different federal agencies to achieve objectives of force health protection, health and diplomacy.

  7. The backend design of an environmental monitoring system upon real-time prediction of groundwater level fluctuation under the hillslope.

    PubMed

    Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Hong, Yao-Ming; Kan, Yao-Chiang

    2012-01-01

    The groundwater level represents a critical factor to evaluate hillside landslides. A monitoring system upon the real-time prediction platform with online analytical functions is important to forecast the groundwater level due to instantaneously monitored data when the heavy precipitation raises the groundwater level under the hillslope and causes instability. This study is to design the backend of an environmental monitoring system with efficient algorithms for machine learning and knowledge bank for the groundwater level fluctuation prediction. A Web-based platform upon the model-view controller-based architecture is established with technology of Web services and engineering data warehouse to support online analytical process and feedback risk assessment parameters for real-time prediction. The proposed system incorporates models of hydrological computation, machine learning, Web services, and online prediction to satisfy varieties of risk assessment requirements and approaches of hazard prevention. The rainfall data monitored from the potential landslide area at Lu-Shan, Nantou and Li-Shan, Taichung, in Taiwan, are applied to examine the system design.

  8. Monitoring the spread of myxoma virus in rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus populations on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. I. Natural occurrence of myxomatosis.

    PubMed Central

    Merchant, J. C.; Kerr, P. J.; Simms, N. G.; Robinson, A. J.

    2003-01-01

    A survey of rabbit populations in the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia, was carried out to establish the pattern of occurrence of myxomatosis in preparation for a deliberate release of myxoma virus. Myxomatosis was first detected in December and cases were found on most sites through to May. The serological profiles of rabbit populations suggested that their susceptibility to myxoma virus was generally low in winter and highest in spring and summer reflecting the presence of increasing numbers of susceptible young rabbits. This was consistent with the pattern of rabbit breeding, as determined from the distribution of births and reproductive activity in females and males, which occurred maximally in spring and early summer. The serology and age structure of rabbit populations on sites suggested that some rabbit populations can escape an annual myxomatosis epizootic. Although fleas were present on rabbits throughout the year and therefore not considered to be a limiting factor in the spread of myxomatosis, their numbers peaked at times coincident with peak rabbit breeding. It was concluded that mid to late spring was an optimal time for a deliberate release. PMID:12613753

  9. Monitoring the spread of myxoma virus in rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus populations on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. I. Natural occurrence of myxomatosis.

    PubMed

    Merchant, J C; Kerr, P J; Simms, N G; Robinson, A J

    2003-02-01

    A survey of rabbit populations in the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia, was carried out to establish the pattern of occurrence of myxomatosis in preparation for a deliberate release of myxoma virus. Myxomatosis was first detected in December and cases were found on most sites through to May. The serological profiles of rabbit populations suggested that their susceptibility to myxoma virus was generally low in winter and highest in spring and summer reflecting the presence of increasing numbers of susceptible young rabbits. This was consistent with the pattern of rabbit breeding, as determined from the distribution of births and reproductive activity in females and males, which occurred maximally in spring and early summer. The serology and age structure of rabbit populations on sites suggested that some rabbit populations can escape an annual myxomatosis epizootic. Although fleas were present on rabbits throughout the year and therefore not considered to be a limiting factor in the spread of myxomatosis, their numbers peaked at times coincident with peak rabbit breeding. It was concluded that mid to late spring was an optimal time for a deliberate release.

  10. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, Nabanita; Sukumarpillai, Abhilash; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Joseph, Susmitha; De, Soumyendu; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  11. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, N.; Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; de, S.; Goswami, B.; Kumar, A.

    2013-12-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  12. Real Time Monitoring and Prediction of the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations: An index based on Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis Technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherumadanakadan Thelliyil, S.; Ravindran, A. M.; Giannakis, D.; Majda, A.

    2016-12-01

    An improved index for real time monitoring and forecast verification of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) is introduced using the recently developed Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (NLSA) algorithm. Previous studies has demonstrated the proficiency of NLSA in capturing low frequency variability and intermittency of a time series. Using NLSA a hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami (LB) eigen functions are extracted from the unfiltered daily GPCP rainfall data over the south Asian monsoon region. Two modes representing the full life cycle of complex northeastward propagating boreal summer MISO are identified from the hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami eigen functions. These two MISO modes have a number of advantages over the conventionally used Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) MISO modes including higher memory and better predictability, higher fractional variance over the western Pacific, Western Ghats and adjoining Arabian Sea regions and more realistic representation of regional heat sources associated with the MISO. The skill of NLSA based MISO indices in real time prediction of MISO is demonstrated using hindcasts of CFSv2 extended range prediction runs. It is shown that these indices yield a higher prediction skill than the other conventional indices supporting the use of NLSA in real time prediction of MISO. Real time monitoring and prediction of MISO finds its application in agriculture, construction and hydro-electric power sectors and hence an important component of monsoon prediction.

  13. Statistical monitoring and dynamic simulation of a wastewater treatment plant: A combined approach to achieve model predictive control.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiaodong; Ratnaweera, Harsha; Holm, Johan Abdullah; Olsbu, Vibeke

    2017-05-15

    The on-line monitoring of Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) restrains wastewater treatment plants to achieve better control of aeration and chemical dosing. In this study, we applied principal components analysis (PCA) to find out significant variables for COD and TP prediction. Multiple regression method applied the variables suggested by PCA to predict influent COD and TP. Moreover, a model of full-scale wastewater treatment plant with moving bed bioreactor (MBBR) and ballasted separation process was developed to simulate the performance of wastewater treatment. The predicted COD and TP data by multiple regression served as model input for dynamic simulation. Besides, the wastewater characteristic of the wastewater treatment plant and MBBR model parameters were given for model calibration. As a result, R(2) of predicted COD and TP versus measured data are 81.6% and 77.2%, respectively. The model output in terms of sludge production and effluent COD based on predicted input data fitted measured data well, which provides possibility to enabled model predictive control of aeration and coagulant dosing in practice. This study provide a feasible and economical approach to overcome monitoring and modelling restrictions that limits model predictive control of wastewater treatment plant. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes : Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student's to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation's prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  15. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes :Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student`s to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation`s prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  16. Biomarkers for osteoporosis management: utility in diagnosis, fracture risk prediction and therapy monitoring.

    PubMed

    Garnero, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a systemic disease characterized by low bone mass and microarchitectural deterioration of bone tissue, resulting in an increased risk of fracture. While the level of bone mass can be estimated by measuring bone mineral density (BMD) using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), its measurement does not capture all the risk factors for fracture. Quantitative changes in skeletal turnover can be assessed easily and non-invasively by the measurement of serum and urinary biochemical markers; the most sensitive markers include serum osteocalcin, bone specific alkaline phosphatase, the N-terminal propeptide of type I collagen for bone formation, and the crosslinked C- (CTX) and N- (NTX) telopeptides of type I collagen for bone resorption. Advances in our knowledge of bone matrix biochemistry, most notably of post-translational modifications in type I collagen, are likely to lead to the development of new biochemical markers that reflect changes in the material property of bone, an important determinant of bone strength. Among those, the measurement of the urinary ratio of native (alpha) to isomerized (beta) CTX - an index of bone matrix maturation - has been shown to be predictive of fracture risk independently of BMD and bone turnover. In postmenopausal osteoporosis, levels of bone resorption markers above the upper limit of the premenopausal range are associated with an increased risk of hip, vertebral, and nonvertebral fracture, independent of BMD. Therefore, the combined use of BMD measurement and biochemical markers is helpful in risk assessment, especially in those women who are not identified as at risk by BMD measurement alone. Levels of bone markers decrease rapidly with antiresorptive therapies, and the levels reached after 3-6 months of therapy have been shown to be more strongly associated with fracture outcome than changes in BMD. Preliminary studies indicate that monitoring changes of bone formation markers could also be useful to monitor anabolic

  17. Coping with drought: A High Resolution Drought Monitoring and Prediction System for the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, M.; Nijssen, B.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    The Pacific Northwest (PNW) region in North America (defined here as the Columbia and Klamath River basins plus the coastal drainages) is a diverse geographic region with complex topography and a variety of climates. Agriculture (dryland and irrigated), forestry, fisheries, and hydropower provide significant economic benefit to the region and are directly dependent on the availability of sufficient water at the right time. Additional demands are made on water supplies by recreation, ecosystem services and emerging needs such as hydropower generation in support of wind energy integration. Several major droughts have occurred over the region in recent decades (notably 1977, 2001, and 2004), which have had significant consequences for the region's agricultural, hydropower production, and environment. An emerging need for the region is the coordination of existing regional climate activities, including a better awareness of the current water availability conditions across the region. The University of Washington has operated a surface water monitor for the continental United States since 2005, which provides near real-time estimates of surface water conditions at a spatial resolution of 1/2 degree in terms of soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and total moisture based on a suite of land surface models. A higher resolution Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (DMPS) for Washington State was originally implemented at 1/8 degree and later increased to 1/16 degree. This presentation describes the extension of this system to the entire PNW region at 1/16 degree. The expanded system provides daily updates of three primary drought-related indices based on near real-time station observations in the region: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Soil Moisture Percentiles (SMP). To make the drought measures relevant to water managers, surface water conditions are not only reported on a gridded map, but watershed-level drought summary

  18. Integrating Real-time and Manual Monitored Soil Moisture Data to Predict Hillslope Soil Moisture Variations with High Temporal Resolutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Qing; Lv, Ligang; Zhou, Zhiwen; Liao, Kaihua

    2016-04-01

    Spatial-temporal variability of soil moisture 15 has been remaining an challenge to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time soil moisture monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of soil moisture dynamics. In this study, we aimed to integrate the manual and real-time monitored soil moisture to depict the hillslope dynamics of soil moisture with good spatial coverage and temporal resolution. Linear (stepwise multiple linear regression-SMLR) and non-linear models (support vector machines-SVM) were used to predict soil moisture at 38 manual sites (collected 1-2 times per month) with soil moisture automatically collected at three real-time monitoring sites (collected every 5 mins). By comparing the accuracies of SMLR and SVM for each manual site, optimal soil moisture prediction model of this site was then determined. Results show that soil moisture at these 38 manual sites can be reliably predicted (root mean square errors<0.035 m3 m-3) using this approach. Absence or occurrence of subsurface flow can probably influence the choosing of SMLR or SVM in the prediction, respectively. Depth to bedrock, elevation, topographic wetness index, profile curvature, and relative difference of soil moisture and its standard deviation influenced the selection of prediction model since they related to the dynamics of soil water distribution and movement. By using this approach, hillslope soil moisture spatial distributions at un-sampled times and dates were predicted after a typical rainfall event. Missing information of hillslope soil moisture dynamics was then acquired successfully. This can be benefit for determining the hot spots and moments of soil water movement, as well as designing the proper soil moisture monitoring plan at the field scale.

  19. Model-based evaluation of subsurface monitoring networks for improved efficiency and predictive certainty of regional groundwater models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosses, M. J.; Wöhling, Th.; Moore, C. R.; Dann, R.; Scott, D. M.; Close, M.

    2012-04-01

    Groundwater resources worldwide are increasingly under pressure. Demands from different local stakeholders add to the challenge of managing this resource. In response, groundwater models have become popular to make predictions about the impact of different management strategies and to estimate possible impacts of changes in climatic conditions. These models can assist to find optimal management strategies that comply with the various stakeholder needs. Observations of the states of the groundwater system are essential for the calibration and evaluation of groundwater flow models, particularly when they are used to guide the decision making process. On the other hand, installation and maintenance of observation networks are costly. Therefore it is important to design monitoring networks carefully and cost-efficiently. In this study, we analyse the Central Plains groundwater aquifer (~ 4000 km2) between the Rakaia and Waimakariri rivers on the Eastern side of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. The large sedimentary groundwater aquifer is fed by the two alpine rivers and by recharge from the land surface. The area is mainly under agricultural land use and large areas of the land are irrigated. The other major water use is the drinking water supply for the city of Christchurch. The local authority in the region, Environment Canterbury, maintains an extensive groundwater quantity and quality monitoring programme to monitor the effects of land use and discharges on groundwater quality, and the suitability of the groundwater for various uses, especially drinking-water supply. Current and projected irrigation water demand has raised concerns about possible impacts on groundwater-dependent lowland streams. We use predictive uncertainty analysis and the Central Plains steady-state groundwater flow model to evaluate the worth of pressure head observations in the existing groundwater well monitoring network. The data worth of particular observations is dependent on the problem

  20. Monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Orr, Christopher Henry; Luff, Craig Janson; Dockray, Thomas; Macarthur, Duncan Whittemore

    2004-11-23

    The invention provides apparatus and methods which facilitate movement of an instrument relative to an item or location being monitored and/or the item or location relative to the instrument, whilst successfully excluding extraneous ions from the detection location. Thus, ions generated by emissions from the item or location can successfully be monitored during movement. The technique employs sealing to exclude such ions, for instance, through an electro-field which attracts and discharges the ions prior to their entering the detecting location and/or using a magnetic field configured to repel the ions away from the detecting location.

  1. Three Conservation Applications of Astronaut Photographs of Earth: Tidal Flat Loss (Japan), Elephant Impacts on Vegetation (Botswana), and Seagrass and Mangrove Monitoring (Australia)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Robinson, Julie A.; Minorukashiwagi; Maggiesuzuki; Duanenellis, M.; Bussing, Charles E.; Leelong, W. J.; McKenzie, Andlen J.

    2000-01-01

    NASA photographs taken from low Earth orbit can provide information relevant to conservation biology. This data source is now more accessible due to improvements in digitizing technology, Internet file transfer, and availability of image processing software. We present three examples of conservation-related projects that benefited from using orbital photographs. (1) A time series of photographs from the Space Shuttle showing wetland conversion in Japan was used as a tool for communicating about the impacts of tidal flat loss. Real-time communication with astronauts about a newsworthy event resulted in acquiring current imagery. These images and the availability of other high resolution digital images from NASA provided timely public information on the observed changes. (2) A Space Shuttle photograph of Chobe National Park in Botswana was digitally classified and analyzed to identify the locations of elephant-impacted woodland. Field validation later confirmed that areas identified on the image showed evidence of elephant impacts. (3) A summary map from intensive field surveys of seagrasses in Shoalwater Bay, Australia was used as reference data for a supervised classification of a digitized photograph taken from orbit. The classification was able to distinguish seagrasses, sediments and mangroves with accuracy approximating that in studies using other satellite remote sensing data. Orbital photographs are in the public domain and the database of nearly 400,000 photographs from the late 1960s to the present is available at a single searchable location on the Internet. These photographs can be used by conservation biologists for general information about the landscape and in quantitative applications.

  2. Monitoring the incidence and causes of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia: annual report of the OzFoodNet network, 2010.

    PubMed

    2012-09-30

    This report summarises the incidence of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia and details outbreaks associated with food in 2010. OzFoodNet sites reported 30,035 notifications of 9 diseases or conditions that are commonly transmitted by food. The most frequently notified infections were Campylobacter (16,968 notifications) and Salmonella (11,992 notifications). The most frequently notified Salmonella serotype was Salmonella Typhimurium, accounting for 44% of all Salmonella notifications. OzFoodNet sites also reported 1,640 outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness affecting 30,193 people and resulting in 722 people being hospitalised. There were 89 deaths associated with these outbreaks. The majority of outbreaks (81%, 1,330/1,640) were due to person-to-person spread, 9% (154/1,640) were suspected or confirmed to have been transmitted by contaminated food, 9% (155/1,640) had an unknown mode of transmission and 1 outbreak was due to transmission from animal to person. Foodborne and suspected foodborne outbreaks affected 2,146 persons and included 157 hospitalisations.Fifteen deaths were reported during these outbreaks. Salmonella was the most common aetiological agent identified in foodborne outbreaks and restaurants were the most frequently reported food preparation setting. A single food source was identified for 43 outbreaks, 21 of which were associated with the consumption of dishes containing raw or minimally cooked eggs; the majority (n=20) due to S. Typhimurium. These data assist agencies to document sources of foodborne disease, develop food safety policies, and prevent foodborne illness.

  3. Monitoring the incidence and causes of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia: Annual report of the OzFoodNet network, 2011.

    PubMed

    2015-06-30

    This report summarises the incidence of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia and details outbreaks associated with food in 2011. OzFoodNet sites reported 30,957 notifications of 9 diseases or conditions that may be transmitted by food. The most commonly notified infections were Campylobacter (17,733 notifications) followed by Salmonella (12,271 notifications). The most frequently notified Salmonella serotype was Salmonella Typhimurium, accounting for 48% of all Salmonella notifications. OzFoodNet sites also reported 1,719 outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness affecting 29,839 people and resulting in 872 people being hospitalised and 103 associated deaths. The majority of outbreaks (79% 1,352/1,719) were due to person-to-person transmission, 9% (151/1,719) were suspected or confirmed to be foodborne, 11% (192/1,719) were due to an unknown mode of transmission, 19 were due to community based Salmonella clusters, four were due to waterborne or suspected waterborne transmission and 1 outbreak was due to animal-to-person transmission. Foodborne and suspected foodborne outbreaks affected 2,104 persons and included 231 hospitalisations. There were 5 deaths reported during these outbreaks. Salmonella was the most common aetiological agent identified in foodborne outbreaks and restaurants were the most frequently reported food preparation setting. A single food source of infection was identified for 49 outbreaks, 26 of which were associated with the consumption of dishes containing raw or minimally cooked eggs and all of these outbreaks were due to S. Typhimurium. These data assist agencies to document sources of foodborne disease, develop food safety policies, and prevent foodborne illness.

  4. Monitoring Dolphins in an Urban Marine System: Total and Effective Population Size Estimates of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Ansmann, Ina C.; Lanyon, Janet M.; Seddon, Jennifer M.; Parra, Guido J.

    2013-01-01

    Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008–2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Nec). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554±22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510–598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193±6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181–207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446±56 (SE) (95% CI: 336–556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Nec = 56, 95% CI: 33–128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

  5. Development of Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Prediction Systems for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Initiative from NOAA's Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, K. E.

    2006-12-01

    The U.S. Congress, in response to persistent multi-year drought in the western continental U.S., has called upon NOAA to spearhead the development of a multi-agency National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). Within the NOAA Climate Program Office, the Climate Prediction Program of the Americas (CPPA) has sponsored a number of investigators to develop and demonstrate various approaches and components of drought monitoring and seasonal drought prediction, with the goal of transitioning these approaches and components to NOAA operational application for drought monitoring and prediction. This presentation will review these approaches and pilot results to date, as well review the contributing investigators and institutions. The approaches involve, for example, use of multiple land/hydrology models in both uncoupled "offline" mode and coupled mode (with coupling to atmospheric models). In uncoupled mode, ensemble predictions of land surface forcing, including precipitation, from multiple coupled global and regional seasonal climate prediction models will be used to force the uncoupled land/hydrology models. Considerable effort is being applied to developing "post-processing" algorithms to bias-correct and downscale the ensemble predictions of land surface forcing from the coupled models. Additionally, several investigations are focusing on development and execution of long multi-decadal retrospective "reanalysis" of U.S. land states such as soil moisture and snowpack. Such land reanalyses are critical for casting the seasonal predictions in terms of anomalies from the land model's climatology -- an essential method by overcoming the systematic errors in the land models. Once such tool for these land reanalyses is the N. American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), whose infrastructure was jointly developed by several collaborating institutions of CPPA forerunner programs, such as GAPP and GCIP.

  6. Real-Time Monitoring and Prediction of the Pilot Vehicle System (PVS) Closed-Loop Stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, Tanmay Kumar

    Understanding human control behavior is an important step for improving the safety of future aircraft. Considerable resources are invested during the design phase of an aircraft to ensure that the aircraft has desirable handling qualities. However, human pilots exhibit a wide range of control behaviors that are a function of external stimulus, aircraft dynamics, and human psychological properties (such as workload, stress factor, confidence, and sense of urgency factor). This variability is difficult to address comprehensively during the design phase and may lead to undesirable pilot-aircraft interaction, such as pilot-induced oscillations (PIO). This creates the need to keep track of human pilot performance in real-time to monitor the pilot vehicle system (PVS) stability. This work focused on studying human pilot behavior for the longitudinal axis of a remotely controlled research aircraft and using human-in-the-loop (HuIL) simulations to obtain information about the human controlled system (HCS) stability. The work in this dissertation is divided into two main parts: PIO analysis and human control model parameters estimation. To replicate different flight conditions, this study included time delay and elevator rate limiting phenomena, typical of actuator dynamics during the experiments. To study human control behavior, this study employed the McRuer model for single-input single-output manual compensatory tasks. McRuer model is a lead-lag controller with time delay which has been shown to adequately model manual compensatory tasks. This dissertation presents a novel technique to estimate McRuer model parameters in real-time and associated validation using HuIL simulations to correctly predict HCS stability. The McRuer model parameters were estimated in real-time using a Kalman filter approach. The estimated parameters were then used to analyze the stability of the closed-loop HCS and verify them against the experimental data. Therefore, the main contribution of

  7. Predicting the effects of landuse change on water and salt balance—a case study of a catchment affected by dryland salinity in NSW, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuteja, Narendra Kumar; Beale, Geoffrey; Dawes, Warrick; Vaze, Jai; Murphy, Brian; Barnett, Paul; Rancic, Aleksandra; Evans, Ray; Geeves, Guy; Rassam, Daud W.; Miller, Michelle

    2003-12-01

    An integrated and comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments is presented. The framework is applied to the Mandagery Creek catchment (1688 km 2), located in the south-eastern part of Australia. The catchment is affected by dryland salinity and the effects of landuse, climate, topography, soils and geology on water and salt balance are examined. Landuse change scenarios designed to: (a) increase the perennial content of the pastures and crop rotations and (b) increase the current remnant native woody vegetation with additional tree cover are investigated to determine the level of intervention required to develop ameliorative strategies. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in water flow and salt export are also estimated.

  8. Improving Radar QPE's in Complex Terrain for Improved Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cifelli, R.; Streubel, D. P.; Reynolds, D.

    2010-12-01

    Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is extremely challenging in regions of complex terrain due to a combination of issues related to sampling. In particular, radar beams are often blocked or scan above the liquid precipitation zone while rain gauge density is often too low to properly characterize the spatial distribution of precipitation. Due to poor radar coverage, rain gauge networks are used by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers as the principal source for QPE across the western U.S. The California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) uses point rainfall measurements and historical rainfall runoff relationships to derive river stage forecasts. The point measurements are interpolated to a 4 km grid using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data to develop a gridded 6-hour QPE product (hereafter referred to as RFC QPE). Local forecast offices can utilize the Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) software to improve local QPE’s and thus local flash flood monitoring and prediction. MPE uses radar and rain gauge data to develop a combined QPE product at 1-hour intervals. The rain gauge information is used to bias correct the radar precipitation estimates so that, in situations where the rain gauge density and radar coverage are adequate, MPE can take advantage of the spatial coverage of the radar and the “ground truth” of the rain gauges to provide an accurate QPE. The MPE 1-hour QPE analysis should provide better spatial and temporal resolution for short duration hydrologic events as compared to 6-hour analyses. These hourly QPEs are then used to correct radar derived rain rates used by the Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) software in forecast offices for issuance of flash flood warnings. Although widely used by forecasters across the eastern U.S., MPE is not used extensively by the NWS in the west. Part of the reason for the lack of use of MPE across the west is that there has

  9. Dynamically pre-trained deep recurrent neural networks using environmental monitoring data for predicting PM2.5.

    PubMed

    Ong, Bun Theang; Sugiura, Komei; Zettsu, Koji

    Fine particulate matter ([Formula: see text]) has a considerable impact on human health, the environment and climate change. It is estimated that with better predictions, US$9 billion can be saved over a 10-year period in the USA (State of the science fact sheet air quality. http://www.noaa.gov/factsheets/new, 2012). Therefore, it is crucial to keep developing models and systems that can accurately predict the concentration of major air pollutants. In this paper, our target is to predict [Formula: see text] concentration in Japan using environmental monitoring data obtained from physical sensors with improved accuracy over the currently employed prediction models. To do so, we propose a deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) that is enhanced with a novel pre-training method using auto-encoder especially designed for time series prediction. Additionally, sensors selection is performed within DRNN without harming the accuracy of the predictions by taking advantage of the sparsity found in the network. The numerical experiments show that DRNN with our proposed pre-training method is superior than when using a canonical and a state-of-the-art auto-encoder training method when applied to time series prediction. The experiments confirm that when compared against the [Formula: see text] prediction system VENUS (National Institute for Environmental Studies. Visual Atmospheric Environment Utility System. http://envgis5.nies.go.jp/osenyosoku/, 2014), our technique improves the accuracy of [Formula: see text] concentration level predictions that are being reported in Japan.

  10. GRACE in the Murray Darling Basin: Integrating Remote Sensing with Field Monitoring to Improve Hydrological Model Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellett, K. M.; Walker, J. P.; Grayson, R. B.; Smith, A.; Rodell, M.

    2004-05-01

    Hydrological processes occurring throughout the earth's surface lead to temporal changes in the distribution of mass, which subsequently cause subtle changes in the earth's gravity field. The GRACE mission (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) of NASA and the German Aerospace Centre will provide global data sets of changes in earth's gravity field at unprecedented accuracy over the next several years. This mission has the potential to provide the first-ever global measurements of changes in terrestrial water storage for large regions at monthly to annual time scales. In this paper we present a methodology designed to address two fundamental questions regarding the applicability of GRACE: (1) is the soil moisture component of terrestrial water storage change detectable in the vertically integrated gravity signal, and (2) can such large-scale measurements of gravity changes be used to improve our understanding and simulation of catchment-scale hydrological processes? The methodology involves three key components: (1) ground-based monitoring of gravity and terrestrial water storage changes at 40 sites throughout the Murrumbidgee catchment in Australia; (2) development of a modelling framework which includes the downscaling and disaggregation of GRACE data; and (3) using AMSR (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer) remotely-sensed surface soil moisture observations to further constrain the downscaling and disaggregation. The GRACE data will be processed through assimilation into a hydrological model of the entire Murray-Darling Basin, and the results verified against the monitoring network. Preliminary results from 18 monitoring sites installed in 2001 suggest that changes in root-zone soil moisture represent the dominant fraction of terrestrial water storage changes occurring in the Murrumbidgee and the magnitude of such changes (monthly changes as high as 130 mm at the point-scale and 38 mm at the mean catchment-scale) should produce a statistically significant

  11. Improving Drought Monitoring and Predictions Using Physically Based Evaporative Demand Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobbins, M. T.; Wood, A. W.; Werner, K.

    2011-12-01

    Existing drought monitors rely heavily on precipitation (Prcp) and temperature (T) data to derive moisture fluxes at the surface, often using estimates of evaporative demand (Eo) based only on T to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from land surface models (LSMs). An example of this is the popular Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). In the analysis of drought trends and dynamics, however, the choice of Eo-driver for LSMs is crucial: it significantly affects both the direction and magnitude of trends in estimated ET and soil moisture, particularly in energy-limited areas (in water-limited areas, ET and soil moisture trends are driven by Prcp trends). All else equal, in the long term, T-based Eo measures result in declining ET estimates (i.e., drying) as T rises, whereas using more appropriate, physically based Eo estimates will more accurately reflect observations of both wetting and drying under warming. With regard to the short-term variabilities more appropriate to monitoring ongoing droughts, we contend that, given that various requirements are met, using an appropriate Eo driver (i) as a drought metric in itself, (ii) to drive drought monitors' LSMs, and (iii) in combination with short-term Eo forecasts will enhance characterization of the evaporative dynamics of ongoing drought and permit more accurate predictions of drought development. The requirements of an appropriate Eo estimate are as follows: that at operationally appropriate time and space scales Eo is diagnostic of ET (i.e., ET and Eo co-vary in a complementary fashion); that the Eo formulation and driving data produce good estimates of Eo (i.e., the model is physically based in that it combines radiative and advective drivers, and produces Eo estimates that are accurate and unbiased with respect to observations from drivers that are available with limited latency on a daily basis) and at operational spatio-temporal resolutions; and that Eo can be forecast at operational time and space scales

  12. Using prediction uncertainty analysis to design hydrologic monitoring networks: Example applications from the Great Lakes water availability pilot project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.; Reeves, Howard W.

    2010-01-01

    The importance of monitoring networks for resource-management decisions is becoming more recognized, in both theory and application. Quantitative computer models provide a science-based framework to evaluate the efficacy and efficiency of existing and possible future monitoring networks. In the study described herein, two suites of tools were used to evaluate the worth of new data for specific predictions, which in turn can support efficient use of resources needed to construct a monitoring network. The approach evaluates the uncertainty of a model prediction and, by using linear propagation of uncertainty, estimates how much uncertainty could be reduced if the model were calibrated with addition information (increased a priori knowledge of parameter values or new observations). The theoretical underpinnings of the two suites of tools addressing this technique are compared, and their application to a hypothetical model based on a local model inset into the Great Lakes Water Availability Pilot model are described. Results show that meaningful guidance for monitoring network design can be obtained by using the methods explored. The validity of this guidance depends substantially on the parameterization as well; hence, parameterization must be considered not only when designing the parameter-estimation paradigm but also-importantly-when designing the prediction-uncertainty paradigm.

  13. Monitoring Food Security Indicators from Remote Sensing and Predicting Cereal Production in Afghanistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pervez, M. S.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.

    2015-12-01

    We extract percent of basin snow covered areas above 2500m elevation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500-meter 8-day snow cover composites to monitor accumulation and depletion of snow in the basin. While the accumulation and depletion of snow cover extent provides an indication of the temporal progression of the snow pack, it does not provide insight into available water for irrigation. Therefore, we use snow model results from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center to quantify snow water equivalent and volume of water available within the snowpack for irrigation. In an effort to understand how water availability, along with its inter-annual variability, relates to the food security of the country, we develop a simple, effective, and easy-to-implement model to identify irrigated areas across the country on both annual and mid-season basis. The model is based on applying thresholds to peak growing season vegetation indices—derived from 250-meter MODIS images—in a decision-tree classifier to separate irrigated crops from non-irrigated vegetation. The spatial distribution and areal estimates of irrigated areas from these maps compare well with irrigated areas classified from multiple snap shots of the landscape from Landsat 5 optical and thermal images over selected locations. We observed that the extents of irrigated areas varied depending on the availability of snowmelt and can be between 1.35 million hectares in a year with significant water deficit and 2.4 million hectares in a year with significant water surplus. The changes in the amount of available water generally can contribute up to a 30% change in irrigated areas. We also observed that the strong correlation between inter-annual variability of irrigated areas and the variability in the country's cereal production could be utilized to predict an annual estimate of cereal production, providing early indication of food security scenarios for the country.

  14. Shark Bay, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2017-09-27

    Hamelin Pool Marine Nature Reserve is located in the Shark Bay World Heritage Site in Western Australia. It is one of the very few places in the world where living stromatolites can be found. These are the first living examples of structures built by cyanobacteria. These bacteria are direct descendants of the oldest form of photosynthetic life on earth, dating back 3,500 million years (Wikipedia). The image was acquired December 30, 2010, covers an area of 34 x 46 km, and is located at 26.4 degrees south latitude, 114.1 degrees east longitude. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched Dec. 18, 1999, on Terra. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and data products. The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER provides scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; wetlands evaluation; thermal pollution monitoring; coral reef degradation; surface temperature mapping of soils and geology; and measuring surface heat balance. The U.S. science team is located at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C. More information about ASTER is available at asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/. Credit: NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team Image Addition Date: 2013-03-15 NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard

  15. Beliefs about the Potential Impacts of Exploiting Non-Timber Forest Products Predict Voluntary Participation in Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dantas Brites, Alice; Morsello, Carla

    2017-06-01

    Harvesting and trading non-timber forest products is advocated as a win-win strategy for conservation and development, yet it can produce negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Hence, monitoring exploitation outcomes is essential, and participatory monitoring has been suggested to be the most suitable approach. Among possible approaches, participatory monitoring is preferred because it is likely to increase people's awareness and beliefs regarding impacts or potential impacts, thus inducing behavioral changes, although the evidence in this regard is contradictory. We therefore evaluated whether people's beliefs about the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of non-timber forest product exploitation increased their likelihood of volunteering to monitor. We studied a community of forest inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon who harvested and traded a commercially important non-timber forest product. Two methods of data gathering were employed: (i) a survey of 166 adults (51 households) to evaluate people's beliefs and their stated intention to engage in four different monitoring tasks and (ii) four pilot monitoring tasks to evaluate who actually participated. Based on mixed-effects regressions, the results indicated that beliefs regarding both types of impacts could predict participation in certain tasks, although gender, age and schooling were occasionally stronger predictors. On average, people had stronger beliefs about potential socioeconomic impacts than about potential ecological impacts, with the former also predicting participation in ecological data gathering. This finding reinforces the importance of monitoring both types of impacts to help achieve the win-win outcomes originally proposed by non-timber forest product trade initiatives.

  16. Beliefs about the Potential Impacts of Exploiting Non-Timber Forest Products Predict Voluntary Participation in Monitoring.

    PubMed

    Dantas Brites, Alice; Morsello, Carla

    2017-06-01

    Harvesting and trading non-timber forest products is advocated as a win-win strategy for conservation and development, yet it can produce negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Hence, monitoring exploitation outcomes is essential, and participatory monitoring has been suggested to be the most suitable approach. Among possible approaches, participatory monitoring is preferred because it is likely to increase people's awareness and beliefs regarding impacts or potential impacts, thus inducing behavioral changes, although the evidence in this regard is contradictory. We therefore evaluated whether people's beliefs about the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of non-timber forest product exploitation increased their likelihood of volunteering to monitor. We studied a community of forest inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon who harvested and traded a commercially important non-timber forest product. Two methods of data gathering were employed: (i) a survey of 166 adults (51 households) to evaluate people's beliefs and their stated intention to engage in four different monitoring tasks and (ii) four pilot monitoring tasks to evaluate who actually participated. Based on mixed-effects regressions, the results indicated that beliefs regarding both types of impacts could predict participation in certain tasks, although gender, age and schooling were occasionally stronger predictors. On average, people had stronger beliefs about potential socioeconomic impacts than about potential ecological impacts, with the former also predicting participation in ecological data gathering. This finding reinforces the importance of monitoring both types of impacts to help achieve the win-win outcomes originally proposed by non-timber forest product trade initiatives.

  17. Trying to predict the unpredictable: Variations in device-based daily monitored diagnostic parameters can predict malignant arrhythmic events in patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy.

    PubMed

    Jędrzejczyk-Patej, Ewa; Kowalski, Oskar; Sredniawa, Beata; Pruszkowska, Patrycja; Sokal, Adam; Szulik, Mariola; Mazurek, Michał; Kowalczyk, Jacek; Kalarus, Zbigniew; Lenarczyk, Radosław

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of device-based diagnostic parameters in predicting ventricular arrhythmias in cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) recipients. Ninety-six CRT-D patients participating in TRUST CRT Trial were analyzed. The inclusion criteria were: heart failure in NYHA ≥ 3 class, QRS ≥ 120 ms, LVEF £ 35% and significant mechanical dyssynchrony. Patients were divided into those with (n = 31, 92 arrhythmias) and without (n = 65) appropriate ICD interventions within follow-up of 12.03 ± 6.7 months. Daily monitored device-based parameters: heart rate (HR), thoracic impedance (TI), HR variability and physical activity were analyzed in 4 time windows: within 10, 7, 3 days and 1 day before appropriate ICD interventions. A consistent pattern of changes in three monitored factors was observed prior to arrhythmia: 1) a gradual increase of day HR (from 103.43% of reference within 10-day window to 105.55% one day before, all p < 0.05 vs. reference); 2) variations in night HR (104.75% in 3 days, 107.65% one day before, all p < 0.05) and 3) TI decrease (from 97.8% in 10 days to 96.81% one day before, all p < 0.05). The combination of three parameters had better predictive value, which improved further after exclusion of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The predictive model combining HR and TI together with LVEF and NT-proBNP was more prognostic than the model involving LVEF and NT-proBNP alone (difference in AUC 0.05, 95% CI 0.0005-0.09, p = 0.04). Daily device-monitored parameters show significant variations prior to ventricular arrhythmia. Combination of multiple parameters improves arrhythmia predictive performance by its additive value to baseline risk factors, while presence of AF diminishes it.

  18. Is the incidence of heart attack still decreasing in Australia? Developing reliable methods for monitoring trends in myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease (AUS-MOCHA): a study protocol.

    PubMed

    Nedkoff, Lee; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael S T; Hung, Joseph; Mathur, Sushma; Beilby, John; Reynolds, Anna; Briffa, Tom G; Lopez, Derrick; Sanfilippo, Frank M

    2016-08-24

    Accurate monitoring of acute coronary heart disease (CHD) is essential for understanding the effects of primary and secondary prevention and for planning of healthcare services. The ability to reliably monitor acute CHD has been affected by new diagnostic tests for myocardial infarction (MI) and changing clinical classifications and management of CHD. Our study will develop new and reliable methods for monitoring population trends in incidence, outcomes and health service usage for acute CHD and chest pain. The study cohort of all CHD will be identified from the Western Australian Data Linkage System using state-wide data sets for emergency department presentation, hospitalisations and mortality data for 2002-2014. This core linked data set will be supplemented with data from hospital medical record reviews, pathology data and hospital pharmacy dispensing databases. The consistency over time of the coding of the different subgroups of CHD/chest pain (ST-elevation MI, non-ST elevation MI, unstable angina, stable angina, other CHD, non-CHD chest pain) in linked data will be assessed using these data sources, and an algorithm developed detailing groups in which temporal trends can be reliably measured. This algorithm will be used for measurement of trends in incidence and outcomes of acute CHD, and to develop further methods for monitoring acute CHD using unlinked and linked data with varying availability of hospitalisation history. Ethics approval has been obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committees of the WA Department of Health (#2016/23) and The University of Western Australia (RA/4/1/7230). Findings will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals, and presentation at national and international conferences. There will also be a strong platform for dissemination of new monitoring methods via collaboration with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare which will assist with promotion of these methods at state and national levels

  19. Children's Television in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, John P.

    1978-01-01

    Reviews developments in the television industry in Australia with specific reference to children's television. Advertising regulations and research and publications related to children's television are also noted. (RAO)

  20. Children's Television in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, John P.

    1978-01-01

    Reviews developments in the television industry in Australia with specific reference to children's television. Advertising regulations and research and publications related to children's television are also noted. (RAO)

  1. Space weather activities in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cole, D.

    Space Weather Plan Australia has a draft space weather plan to drive and focus appropriate research into services that meet future industry and social needs. The Plan has three main platforms, space weather monitoring and service delivery, support for priority research, and outreach to the community. The details of monitoring, service, research and outreach activities are summarised. A ground-based network of 14 monitoring stations from Antarctica to Papua New Guinea is operated by IPS, a government agency. These sites monitor ionospheric and geomagnetic characteristics, while two of them also monitor the sun at radio and optical wavelengths. Services provided through the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC) include real-time information on the solar, space, ionospheric and geomagnetic environments. Data are gathered automatically from monitoring sites and integrated with data exchanged internationally to create snapshots of current space weather conditions and forecasts of conditions up to several days ahead. IPS also hosts the WDC for Solar-Terrestrial Science and specialises in ground-based solar, ionospheric, and geomagnetic data sets, although recent in-situ magnetospheric measurements are also included. Space weather activities A research consortium operates the Tasman International Geospace Environment Radar (TIGER), an HF southward pointing auroral radar operating from Hobart (Tasmania). A second cooperative radar (Unwin radar) is being constructed in the South Island of New Zealand. This will intersect with TIGER over the auroral zone and enhance the ability of the radar to image the surge of currents that herald space environment changes entering the Polar Regions. Launched in November 2002, the micro satellite FEDSAT, operated by the Cooperative Research Centre for Satellite Systems, has led to successful space science programs and data streams. FEDSAT is making measurements of the magnetic field over Australia and higher latitudes. It also carries a

  2. Applications of satellite ocean color sensors for monitoring and predicting harmful algal blooms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stumpf, Richard P.

    2001-01-01

    The new satellite ocean color sensors offer a means of detecting and monitoring algal blooms in the ocean and coastal zone. Beginning with SeaWiFS (Sea Wide Field-of-view Sensor) in September 1997, these sensors provide coverage every 1 to 2 days with 1-km pixel view at nadir. Atmospheric correction algorithms designed for the coastal zone combined with regional chlorophyll algorithms can provide good and reproducible estimates of chlorophyll, providing the means of monitoring various algal blooms. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by Karenia brevis in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly amenable to remote observation. The Gulf of Mexico has relatively clear water and K. brevis, in bloom conditions, tends to produce a major portion of the phytoplankton biomass. A monitoring program has begun in the Gulf of Mexico that integrates field data from state monitoring programs with satellite imagery, providing an improved capability for the monitoring of K. brevis blooms.

  3. On the identification of representative in situ soil moisture monitoring stations for the validation of SMAP soil moisture products in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yee, Mei Sun; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Monerris, Alessandra; Rüdiger, Christoph; Jackson, Thomas J.

    2016-06-01

    The high spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture complicates the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture products using in situ monitoring stations. Therefore, a standard methodology for selecting the most representative stations for the purpose of validating satellites and land surface models is essential. Based on temporal stability and geostatistical studies using long-term soil moisture records, intensive ground measurements and airborne soil moisture products, this study investigates the representativeness of soil moisture monitoring stations within the Yanco study area for the validation of NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) products at 3 km for radar, 9 km for radar-radiometer and 36 km for radiometer pixels. This resulted in the identification of a number of representative stations according to the different scales. Although the temporal stability method was found to be suitable for identifying representative stations, stations based on the mean relative difference (MRD) were not necessarily the most representative of the areal average. Moreover, those identified from standard deviation of the relative difference (SDRD) may be dry-biased. It was also found that in the presence of heterogeneous land use, stations should be weighted based on proportions of agricultural land. Airborne soil moisture products were also shown to provide useful a priori information for identifying representative locations. Finally, recommendations are made regarding the design of future networks for satellite validation, and specifically the most representative stations for the Yanco area.

  4. Testing a Multi-Stage Screening System: Predicting Performance on Australia's National Achievement Test Using Teachers' Ratings of Academic and Social Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kettler, Ryan J.; Elliott, Stephen N.; Davies, Michael; Griffin, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    This study addresses the predictive validity of results from a screening system of academic enablers, with a sample of Australian elementary school students, when the criterion variable is end-of-year achievement. The investigation included (a) comparing the predictive validity of a brief criterion-referenced nomination system with more…

  5. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    1992-01-01

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  6. Heron Island, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Heron Island is located at the sourthern end of Australia's 2,050 km-long Great Barrier Reef. Surrounded by coral reef and home to over 1000 species of fish, scuba divers and scientists alike are drawn to the island's resort and research station. The true-color image above was taken by Space Imaging's Ikonos satellite with a resolution of 4 meters per pixel-high enough to see individual boats tied up at the small marina. The narrow channel leading from the marina to the ocean was blasted and dredged decades ago, before the island became a national park. Since then the Australian government has implemented conservation measures, such as limiting the number of tourists and removing or recycling, instead of incinerating, all trash. One of the applications of remote sensing data from Ikonos is environmental monitoring, including studies of coral reef health. For more information about the island, read Heron Island. Image by Robert Simmon, based on data copyright Space Imaging

  7. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-06-22

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales.

  8. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed Central

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-01-01

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685

  9. Plant functional types are more efficient than climate in predicting spectrums of trait variation in evergreen angiosperm trees of tropical Australia and China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Togashi, H. F.; Prentice, I. C. C.; Atkin, O. K.; Bloomfield, K. J.; Bradford, M.; Weerasinghe, L. K.; Harrison, S. P.; Evans, B. J.; Liddell, M. J.; Wang, H.; Cao, K. F.; Fan, Z.

    2015-12-01

    The representation of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) in current generation of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) is excessively simplistically. Key ecophysiological properties, such as photosynthesis biochemistry, are most times merely averaged and trade-off with other plant traits is often neglected. Validation of a PFT framework based in photosynthetic process is crucial to improve reliability of DGVMs. We present 431 leaf-biochemical and wood level measurements in evergreen angiosperm trees of tropical forests in Australia and China that were divided in four spectrums of plant trait variation: metabolic, structural, hydraulic and height dimensions. Plant traits divided in each of these dimensions adopt survival strategies reflected more clearly by trade-off within each spectrum, and in some extent across spectrums. Co-ordination theory (that Rubisco- and electron-transport limited rates of photosynthesis are co-limiting) and least-coast theory (that intercellular to ambient CO2 concentration minimizes the combined costs per unit carbon assimilation, regulating maximum height and wood density) expectations matched PFT (which takes in account canopy position and light access, and life spam) variation. Our findings suggest that climate (air moisture, air temperature, light) has lower power representing these dimensions, in comparison to the PFT framework.

  10. Community Music in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Gillian

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a historical perspective to the development of community music in Australia. Finding political support in Australia's progressive arts policies of the late 1970s, community music is discussed as embracing the principles of access and equity and supporting the development of musical skills in the context of social change and…

  11. Handbook on Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Texas Education Agency, Austin.

    A study unit on Australia for secondary students is divided into eight sections. Section 1 introduces students to the states, territories, and capitals of the country. Section two, land and people, discusses the size, location, geology, climate, flora and fauna, and population of Australia. Sections 3 and 4 outline Australian history and include…

  12. Online Training in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuzic, Joze

    2013-01-01

    On-line training is becoming an interesting phenomenon in Australia and has attracted a lot of interest across many industries and businesses (Chan and Ngai, 2007). The research reported here looks at the use of online training in corporations in Australia. It focuses on two aspects of online training, the factors that "warrant" its…

  13. Natural disasters in Australia.

    PubMed

    Leivesley, S

    1984-06-01

    The history of natural hazards in Australia and their physical, economic and social consequences are discussed in this paper. The lack of any national programme for hazard mitigation is identified, alongside an overview of Australia as a country where major disasters are accepted as a part of everyday life.

  14. Australia's earliest planispheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orchiston, W.

    2003-12-01

    Australia's earliest-known planispheres were made by a Sydney amateur astronomer named George Butterfield in 1870 and 1877, although a similar but more crudely-made 'noctural dial' was created by Philip Parker King in 1852. This paper discusses these pioneering endeavours, other nineteenth century attempts to popularise astronomy, and the prevailing astronomical climate in Australia at that time.

  15. Handbook on Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Texas Education Agency, Austin.

    A study unit on Australia for secondary students is divided into eight sections. Section 1 introduces students to the states, territories, and capitals of the country. Section two, land and people, discusses the size, location, geology, climate, flora and fauna, and population of Australia. Sections 3 and 4 outline Australian history and include…

  16. Long-term final void salinity prediction for a post-mining landscape in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancock, G. R.; Wright, A.; de Silva, H.

    2005-02-01

    Opencast mining alters surface and subsurface hydrology of a landscape both during and post-mining. At mine closure, following opencast mining in mines with low overburden to coal ratios, a void is left in the final landform. This final void is the location of the active mine pit at closure. Voids are generally not infilled within the mines' lifetime, because of the prohibitive cost of earthwork operations, and they become post-mining water bodies or pit lakes. Water quality is a significant issue for pit lakes. Groundwater within coal seams and associated rocks can be saline, depending on the nature of the strata and groundwater circulation patterns. This groundwater may be preferentially drawn to and collected in the final void. Surface runoff to the void will not only collect salts from rainfall and atmospheric fallout, but also from the ground surface and the weathering of fresh rock. As the void water level rises, its evaporative surface area increases, concentrating salts that are held in solution. This paper presents a study of the long term, water quality trends in a post-mining final void in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia. This process is complex and occurs long term, and modelling offers the only method of evaluating water quality. Using available geochemical, climate and hydrogeological data as inputs into a mass-balance model, water quality in the final void was found to increase rapidly in salinity through time (2452 to 8909 mg l-1 over 500 years) as evaporation concentrates the salt in the void and regional groundwater containing high loads of salt continues to flow into the void.

  17. A Study of Pattern Prediction in the Monitoring Data of Earthen Ruins with the Internet of Things.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yun; Wang, Xin; Eshragh, Faezeh; Wang, Xuanhong; Chen, Xiaojiang; Fang, Dingyi

    2017-05-11

    An understanding of the changes of the rammed earth temperature of earthen ruins is important for protection of such ruins. To predict the rammed earth temperature pattern using the air temperature pattern of the monitoring data of earthen ruins, a pattern prediction method based on interesting pattern mining and correlation, called PPER, is proposed in this paper. PPER first finds the interesting patterns in the air temperature sequence and the rammed earth temperature sequence. To reduce the processing time, two pruning rules and a new data structure based on an R-tree are also proposed. Correlation rules between the air temperature patterns and the rammed earth temperature patterns are then mined. The correlation rules are merged into predictive rules for the rammed earth temperature pattern. Experiments were conducted to show the accuracy of the presented method and the power of the pruning rules. Moreover, the Ming Dynasty Great Wall dataset was used to examine the algorithm, and six predictive rules from the air temperature to rammed earth temperature based on the interesting patterns were obtained, with the average hit rate reaching 89.8%. The PPER and predictive rules will be useful for rammed earth temperature prediction in protection of earthen ruins.

  18. A Study of Pattern Prediction in the Monitoring Data of Earthen Ruins with the Internet of Things

    PubMed Central

    Xiao, Yun; Wang, Xin; Eshragh, Faezeh; Wang, Xuanhong; Chen, Xiaojiang; Fang, Dingyi

    2017-01-01

    An understanding of the changes of the rammed earth temperature of earthen ruins is important for protection of such ruins. To predict the rammed earth temperature pattern using the air temperature pattern of the monitoring data of earthen ruins, a pattern prediction method based on interesting pattern mining and correlation, called PPER, is proposed in this paper. PPER first finds the interesting patterns in the air temperature sequence and the rammed earth temperature sequence. To reduce the processing time, two pruning rules and a new data structure based on an R-tree are also proposed. Correlation rules between the air temperature patterns and the rammed earth temperature patterns are then mined. The correlation rules are merged into predictive rules for the rammed earth temperature pattern. Experiments were conducted to show the accuracy of the presented method and the power of the pruning rules. Moreover, the Ming Dynasty Great Wall dataset was used to examine the algorithm, and six predictive rules from the air temperature to rammed earth temperature based on the interesting patterns were obtained, with the average hit rate reaching 89.8%. The PPER and predictive rules will be useful for rammed earth temperature prediction in protection of earthen ruins. PMID:28492467

  19. Prediction of landslide activation at locations in Beskidy Mountains using standard and real-time monitoring methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarczyk, Z.

    2012-04-01

    The paper presents landslide monitoring methods used for prediction of landslide activity at locations in the Carpathian Mountains (SE Poland). Different types of monitoring methods included standard and real-time early warning measurement with use of hourly data transfer to the Internet were used. Project financed from the EU funds was carried out for the purpose of public road reconstruction. Landslides with low displacement rates (varying from few mm to over 5cm/year) had size of 0.4-2.2mln m3. Flysch layers involved in mass movements represented mixture of clayey soils and sandstones of high moisture content and plasticity. Core sampling and GPR scanning were used for recognition of landslide size and depths. Laboratory research included index, IL oedometer, triaxial and direct shear laboratory tests. GPS-RTK mapping was employed for actualization of landslide morphology. Instrumentation consisted of standard inclinometers, piezometers and pore pressure transducers. Measurements were carried 2006-2011, every month. In May 2010 the first in Poland real-time monitoring system was installed at landslide complex over the Szymark-Bystra public road. It included in-place uniaxial sensors and 3D continuous inclinometers installed to the depths of 12-16m with tilt sensors every 0.5m. Vibrating wire pore pressure and groundwater level transducers together with automatic meteorological station analyzed groundwater and weather conditions. Obtained monitoring and field investigations data provided parameters for LEM and FEM slope stability analysis. They enabled prediction and control of landslide behaviour before, during and after stabilization or partly stabilization works. In May 2010 after the maximum precipitation (100mm/3hours) the rates of observed displacements accelerated to over 11cm in a few days and damaged few standard inclinometer installations. However permanent control of the road area was possible by continuous inclinometer installations. Comprehensive

  20. Comparative Sensitivity of Intraoperative Motor Evoked Potential Monitoring in Predicting Postoperative Neurologic Deficits: Nondegenerative versus Degenerative Myelopathy.

    PubMed

    Clark, Aaron J; Safaee, Michael; Chou, Dean; Weinstein, Philip R; Molinaro, Annette M; Clark, John P; Mummaneni, Praveen V

    2016-08-01

    Retrospective review. Intraoperative motor evoked potential (MEP) monitoring in spine surgery may assist surgeons in taking corrective measures to prevent neurologic deficits. The efficacy of monitoring MEPs intraoperatively in patients with myelopathy from nondegenerative causes has not been quantified. We compared the sensitivity and specificity of intraoperative MEP monitoring in patients with myelopathy caused by nondegenerative processes to patients with degenerative cervicothoracic spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). We retrospectively reviewed our myelopathy surgical cases during a 1-year period to identify patients with degenerative CSM and CSM of nondegenerative causes and collected data on intraoperative MEP changes and postoperative new deficits. Categorical variables were analyzed by Fisher exact test. Receiver operator curves assessed intraoperative MEP monitoring performance in the two groups. In all, 144 patients were identified: 102 had degenerative CSM and 42 had CSM of nondegenerative causes (24 extra-axial tumors, 12 infectious processes, 5 traumatic fractures, and 1 rheumatoid arthritis). For degenerative CSM, there were 11 intraoperative MEP alerts and 7 new deficits (p < 0.001). The corresponding sensitivity was 71% and the specificity was 94%. In the nondegenerative group, there were 11 intraoperative MEP alerts and 3 deficits, which was not significant (p > 0.99). The sensitivity (33%) and specificity (74%) were lower. Among patients with degenerative CSM, the model performed well for predicting postoperative deficits (area under the curve [AUC] 0.826), which appeared better than the nondegenerative group, although it did not reach statistical significance (AUC 0.538, p = 0.16). Based on this large retrospective analysis, intraoperative MEP monitoring in surgery for nondegenerative CSM cases appears to be less sensitive to cord injury and less predictive of postoperative deficits when compared with degenerative CSM cases.

  1. Comparative Sensitivity of Intraoperative Motor Evoked Potential Monitoring in Predicting Postoperative Neurologic Deficits: Nondegenerative versus Degenerative Myelopathy

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Aaron J.; Safaee, Michael; Chou, Dean; Weinstein, Philip R.; Molinaro, Annette M.; Clark, John P.; Mummaneni, Praveen V.

    2015-01-01

    Study Design  Retrospective review. Objective  Intraoperative motor evoked potential (MEP) monitoring in spine surgery may assist surgeons in taking corrective measures to prevent neurologic deficits. The efficacy of monitoring MEPs intraoperatively in patients with myelopathy from nondegenerative causes has not been quantified. We compared the sensitivity and specificity of intraoperative MEP monitoring in patients with myelopathy caused by nondegenerative processes to patients with degenerative cervicothoracic spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). Methods  We retrospectively reviewed our myelopathy surgical cases during a 1-year period to identify patients with degenerative CSM and CSM of nondegenerative causes and collected data on intraoperative MEP changes and postoperative new deficits. Categorical variables were analyzed by Fisher exact test. Receiver operator curves assessed intraoperative MEP monitoring performance in the two groups. Results  In all, 144 patients were identified: 102 had degenerative CSM and 42 had CSM of nondegenerative causes (24 extra-axial tumors, 12 infectious processes, 5 traumatic fractures, and 1 rheumatoid arthritis). For degenerative CSM, there were 11 intraoperative MEP alerts and 7 new deficits (p < 0.001). The corresponding sensitivity was 71% and the specificity was 94%. In the nondegenerative group, there were 11 intraoperative MEP alerts and 3 deficits, which was not significant (p > 0.99). The sensitivity (33%) and specificity (74%) were lower. Among patients with degenerative CSM, the model performed well for predicting postoperative deficits (area under the curve [AUC] 0.826), which appeared better than the nondegenerative group, although it did not reach statistical significance (AUC 0.538, p = 0.16). Conclusions  Based on this large retrospective analysis, intraoperative MEP monitoring in surgery for nondegenerative CSM cases appears to be less sensitive to cord injury and less predictive of postoperative

  2. Modeling and Monitoring for Predictive Simulation of Earthquake Generation in the Japan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsu'Ura, M.; Noda, A.; Terakawa, T.; Hashimoto, C.; Fukuyama, E.

    2008-12-01

    We can regard earthquakes as releases of tectonically accumulated elastic strain energy through dynamic fault ruptures. Given this, the entire earthquake generation process generally consists of tectonic loading due to relative plate motion, quasi-static rupture nucleation, dynamic rupture propagation and stop, and fault strength recovery. In the 1990s earthquake generation physics has made great progress, and so we can now quantitatively describe the entire earthquake generation process with coupled nonlinear equations, consisting of a slip-response function that relates fault slip to shear stress change, a fault constitutive law that prescribes shear strength change with fault slip and contact time, and relative plate motion as driving forces. Recently, we completed a physics-based simulation system for the entire earthquake generation process in and around Japan, where the four plates of Pacific, North American, Philippine Sea and Eurasian are interacting with each other. The total system consists of three basic simulation models for quasi-static stress accumulation, dynamic rupture propagation and seismic wave propagation, developed on a realistic 3- D structure model. Then, given past slip histories and present stress states, we can now predict next step seismic/aseismic fault-slip motion through computation with the combined simulation system. We show two examples of the combined simulation for the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mw=8.2) and the 2003 Tokachi- oki earthquake (Mw=8.1). The first example demonstrates that when the stress state is close to a critical level, dynamic rupture develops into a large earthquake, but when the stress state is much lower than the critical level, started rupture is not accelerated. The second example demonstrates that we can quantitatively evaluate the strong ground motions produced by potential interplate earthquakes through computer simulation, if the realistic plate-interface geometry, fault constitutive parameters and

  3. Evaluation of the ability of three physical activity monitors to predict weight change and estimate energy expenditure.

    PubMed

    Correa, John B; Apolzan, John W; Shepard, Desti N; Heil, Daniel P; Rood, Jennifer C; Martin, Corby K

    2016-07-01

    Activity monitors such as the Actical accelerometer, the Sensewear armband, and the Intelligent Device for Energy Expenditure and Activity (IDEEA) are commonly validated against gold standards (e.g., doubly labeled water, or DLW) to determine whether they accurately measure total daily energy expenditure (TEE) or activity energy expenditure (AEE). However, little research has assessed whether these parameters or others (e.g., posture allocation) predict body weight change over time. The aims of this study were to (i) test whether estimated energy expenditure or posture allocation from the devices was associated with weight change during and following a low-calorie diet (LCD) and (ii) compare free-living TEE and AEE predictions from the devices against DLW before weight change. Eighty-seven participants from 2 clinical trials wore 2 of the 3 devices simultaneously for 1 week of a 2-week DLW period. Participants then completed an 8-week LCD and were weighed at the start and end of the LCD and 6 and 12 months after the LCD. More time spent walking at baseline, measured by the IDEEA, significantly predicted greater weight loss during the 8-week LCD. Measures of posture allocation demonstrated medium effect sizes in their relationships with weight change. Bland-Altman analyses indicated that the Sensewear and the IDEEA accurately estimated TEE, and the IDEEA accurately measured AEE. The results suggest that the ability of energy expenditure and posture allocation to predict weight change is limited, and the accuracy of TEE and AEE measurements varies across activity monitoring devices, with multi-sensor monitors demonstrating stronger validity.

  4. Evaluation of the ability of three physical activity monitors to predict weight change and estimate energy expenditure

    PubMed Central

    Correa, John B.; Apolzan, John W.; Shepard, Desti N.; Heil, Daniel P.; Rood, Jennifer C.; Martin, Corby K.

    2016-01-01

    Activity monitors such as the Actical accelerometer, the Sensewear armband, and the Intelligent Device for Energy Expenditure and Activity (IDEEA) are commonly validated against gold standards (e.g., doubly labeled water, or DLW) to determine whether they accurately measure total daily energy expenditure (TEE) or activity energy expenditure (AEE). However, little research has assessed whether these parameters or others (e.g., posture allocation) predict body weight change over time. The aims of this study were to (i) test whether estimated energy expenditure or posture allocation from the devices was associated with weight change during and following a low-calorie diet (LCD) and (ii) compare free-living TEE and AEE predictions from the devices against DLW before weight change. Eighty-seven participants from 2 clinical trials wore 2 of the 3 devices simultaneously for 1 week of a 2-week DLW period. Participants then completed an 8-week LCD and were weighed at the start and end of the LCD and 6 and 12 months after the LCD. More time spent walking at baseline, measured by the IDEEA, significantly predicted greater weight loss during the 8-week LCD. Measures of posture allocation demonstrated medium effect sizes in their relationships with weight change. Bland–Altman analyses indicated that the Sensewear and the IDEEA accurately estimated TEE, and the IDEEA accurately measured AEE. The results suggest that the ability of energy expenditure and posture allocation to predict weight change is limited, and the accuracy of TEE and AEE measurements varies across activity monitoring devices, with multi-sensor monitors demonstrating stronger validity. PMID:27270210

  5. Autonomous monitoring of control hardware to predict off-normal conditions using NIF automatic Alignment Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Awwal, A; Wilhelmsen, K; Leach, R; Kamm, V M; Burkhart, S; Lowe-Webb, R; Cohen, S

    2011-07-20

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a high power laser system capable of supporting high-energy-density experimentation as a user facility for the next 30 years. In order to maximize the facility availability, preventive maintenance enhancements are being introduced into the system. An example of such an enhancement is a camera-based health monitoring system, integrated into the automated alignment system, which provides an opportunity to monitor trends in measurements such as average beam intensity, size of the beam, and pixel saturation. The monitoring system will generate alerts based on observed trends in measurements to allow scheduled pro-active maintenance before routine off-normal detection stops system operations requiring unscheduled intervention.

  6. Analysis of long-term water quality for effective river health monitoring in peri-urban landscapes--a case study of the Hawkesbury-Nepean river system in NSW, Australia.

    PubMed

    Pinto, U; Maheshwari, B L; Ollerton, R L

    2013-06-01

    The Hawkesbury-Nepean River (HNR) system in South-Eastern Australia is the main source of water supply for the Sydney Metropolitan area and is one of the more complex river systems due to the influence of urbanisation and other activities in the peri-urban landscape through which it flows. The long-term monitoring of river water quality is likely to suffer from data gaps due to funding cuts, changes in priority and related reasons. Nevertheless, we need to assess river health based on the available information. In this study, we demonstrated how the Factor Analysis (FA), Hierarchical Agglomerative Cluster Analysis (HACA) and Trend Analysis (TA) can be applied to evaluate long-term historic data sets. Six water quality parameters, viz., temperature, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, oxides of nitrogen, suspended solids and reactive silicates, measured at weekly intervals between 1985 and 2008 at 12 monitoring stations located along the 300 km length of the HNR system were evaluated to understand the human and natural influences on the river system in a peri-urban landscape. The application of FA extracted three latent factors which explained more than 70 % of the total variance of the data and related to the 'bio-geographical', 'natural' and 'nutrient pollutant' dimensions of the HNR system. The bio-geographical and nutrient pollution factors more likely related to the direct influence of changes and activities of peri-urban natures and accounted for approximately 50 % of variability in water quality. The application of HACA indicated two major clusters representing clean and polluted zones of the river. On the spatial scale, one cluster was represented by the upper and lower sections of the river (clean zone) and accounted for approximately 158 km of the river. The other cluster was represented by the middle section (polluted zone) with a length of approximately 98 km. Trend Analysis indicated how the point sources influence river water quality on spatio

  7. Decision analyses for optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

    2011-12-01

    Model-based decision making related to environmental management problems is a challenging problem. There has been substantial theoretical research and practical applications related to this problem. However, there are very few cases in which the actual decision analyses have been tested in the field to evaluate their adequacy. Over the last several years, we have performed a series of decision analyses to support optimization of a monitoring network at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) site. The problem deals with contaminant transport in the regional aquifer beneath the LANL site. At three separate stages, the existing monitoring network was augmented based on analyses of the existing uncertainties; in total, five new monitoring wells were proposed. At each stage, the data collected at the new monitoring wells demonstrated the adequacy of the prior uncertainty and decision analyses. The decision analyses required a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties, including measurement errors and uncertainties in the conceptualization and model parameters, contributed to the uncertainties in the model predictions. The decision analyses were computationally intensive requiring on the order of one million model simulations; computational efficiency is achieved using (1) high-performance computing (LANL multiprocessor clusters), (2) novel computational techniques for model analysis, and (3) a simple analytical 3D simulator to simulate contaminant transport. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks required optimization of the proposed new monitoring well locations in order to reduce existing model-prediction uncertainties and environmental risk. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of novel techniques for optimization (SQUADS based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods; Vesselinov & Harp, 2011) and uncertainty quantification (ABAGUS: Agent

  8. Predicting reading outcomes in the classroom using a computer-based phonological awareness screening and monitoring assessment (Com-PASMA).

    PubMed

    Carson, Karyn; Boustead, Therese; Gillon, Gail

    2014-12-01

    The screening and monitoring of phonological awareness (PA) in the classroom is of great importance to the early identification and prevention of reading disorder. This study investigated whether a time-efficient computer-based PA screening and monitoring assessment (Com-PASMA) could accurately predict end-of-year reading outcomes for 5-year-old children in the first year of schooling. A longitudinal design was employed where the Com-PASMA was used to measure the PA ability of 95 5-year-old children at the start, middle, and end of the first year of school. Of this group, 21 children presented with spoken language impairment. Reading outcomes were formally measured after 1 year of schooling. School-entry measures of PA using the Com-PASMA (p < .001), in conjunction with language ability (p = .004), accounted for 68.9% of the variance in end-of-year word decoding ability. Sensitivity and specificity calculations demonstrated that the Com-PASMA was 92% accurate at school-entry, and 94% accurate by the middle of the school year in predicting reading outcomes at 6-years of age. Results suggest that a time-efficient computer-based method of screening and monitoring PA can support the early identification of reading difficulties in the first year of schooling.

  9. Supramaximal stimulation during intraoperative facial nerve monitoring as a simple parameter to predict early functional outcome after parotidectomy.

    PubMed

    Mamelle, Elisabeth; Bernat, Isabelle; Pichon, Soizic; Granger, Benjamin; Sain-Oulhen, Charlotte; Lamas, Georges; Tankéré, Frédéric

    2013-07-01

    A supramaximal stimulation at 2 mA during intraoperative electromyographic (EMG) facial nerve monitoring appears to be a simple and effective parameter to predict immediate postoperative injury. To assess the role of systematic intraoperative facial nerve monitoring in predicting the early functional outcomes obtained after parotidectomy. Data were collected from patients who underwent parotidectomy. Intraoperative EMG monitoring of the facial nerve was performed by registering two parameters, event intensity (>100 μV) and amplitude of response after a supramaximal stimulation at 2 mA, at the beginning and end of gland removal. Early postoperative clinical functional facial nerve disorder was assessed at day 2. Overall, 50 patients were included and an early facial dysfunction was detected in 27 cases (54%). The maximal response amplitude after supramaximal stimulation at the trunk of the facial nerve was higher in patients with normal facial function compared with those with poor outcomes at the end of surgery (p < 0.01). The postdissection to predissection ratios of maximal response amplitude, but not the stimulation thresholds, were indicative of a nerve conduction block and were significantly lower in the patient group with a poor outcome compared with the group with a normal facial outcome (p < 0.02).

  10. Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity Predict Action Monitoring and the Error-Related Negativity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, A. Eve; Watson, Jason M.; Strayer, David L.

    2012-01-01

    Neuroscience suggests that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is responsible for conflict monitoring and the detection of errors in cognitive tasks, thereby contributing to the implementation of attentional control. Though individual differences in frontally mediated goal maintenance have clearly been shown to influence outward behavior in…

  11. Monitoring and predicting shrink potential and future processing quality of potato tubers

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Long-term storage of potato tubers increases risks, which are often attributed to shrink and quality loss. To minimize shrink and ensure high quality tubers, producers must closely monitor the condition of the crop during storage and make necessary adjustments to management plans. Evaluation procedu...

  12. A predictive model for anti-degradation monitoring of the Delaware River mainstem

    EPA Science Inventory

    The non-tidal portion of the Delaware River can be considered to be in minimally disturbed condition, but there is increasing pressure on the watershed. Thus, the primary goal of this research was to develop a monitoring tool that can be used by the Delaware River Basin Commissi...

  13. Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity Predict Action Monitoring and the Error-Related Negativity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, A. Eve; Watson, Jason M.; Strayer, David L.

    2012-01-01

    Neuroscience suggests that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is responsible for conflict monitoring and the detection of errors in cognitive tasks, thereby contributing to the implementation of attentional control. Though individual differences in frontally mediated goal maintenance have clearly been shown to influence outward behavior in…

  14. Environmental sampling to predict fecal prevalence of Salmonella in an intensively monitored dairy herd

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Although dairy cattle are known reservoirs for salmonellae, cattle that are shedding this organism are often asymptomatic and difficult to identify. A dairy herd that was experiencing an outbreak of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica Cerro was monitored for two years. Fecal samples from the lacta...

  15. Tuberculosis notifications in Australia, 2011.

    PubMed

    Bareja, Christina; Waring, Justin; Stapledon, Richard; Toms, Cindy; Douglas, Paul

    2014-12-31

    The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System received 1,385 tuberculosis (TB) notifications in 2011, representing a rate of 6.2 cases per 100,000 population. While Australia has maintained a rate of 5 to 6 cases per 100,000 for TB since the mid-1980s, there has been a steady increase in incidence over the past decade. In 2011, Australia's overseas-born population continued to represent the majority of TB notifications (88%) with a notification rate of 20.2 per 100,000. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born Indigenous population has fluctuated over the last decade and showed no clear trend; however, in 2011 the notification rate was 4.9 per 100,000, which is a notable decrease from the 7.5 per 100,000 recorded in 2010. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born non-Indigenous population has continued to remain low at 0.9 per 100,000. Australia continued to record only a small number of multi-drug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) cases nationally (n=25), all of which were identified in the overseas-born population. To ensure that Australia can retain its low TB rate and work toward reducing rates further, it is essential that Australia maintains good centralised national TB reporting to monitor trends and identify at-risk populations, and continues to contribute to global TB control initiatives. This work is copyright. You may download, display, print and reproduce the whole or part of this work in unaltered form for your own personal use or, if you are part of an organisation, for internal use within your organisation, but only if you or your organisation do not use the reproduction for any commercial purpose and retain this copyright notice and all disclaimer notices as part of that reproduction. Apart from rights to use as permitted by the Copyright Act 1968 or allowed by this copyright notice, all other rights are reserved and you are not allowed to reproduce the whole or any part of this work in any way (electronic or otherwise) without first being given the

  16. Intensity of territorial marking predicts wolf reproduction: implications for wolf monitoring.

    PubMed

    Llaneza, Luis; García, Emilio J; López-Bao, José Vicente

    2014-01-01

    The implementation of intensive and complex approaches to monitor large carnivores is resource demanding, restricted to endangered species, small populations, or small distribution ranges. Wolf monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult, but the management of such contentious species requires regular estimations of abundance to guide decision-makers. The integration of wolf marking behaviour with simple sign counts may offer a cost-effective alternative to monitor the status of wolf populations over large spatial scales. We used a multi-sampling approach, based on the collection of visual and scent wolf marks (faeces and ground scratching) and the assessment of wolf reproduction using howling and observation points, to test whether the intensity of marking behaviour around the pup-rearing period (summer-autumn) could reflect wolf reproduction. Between 1994 and 2007 we collected 1,964 wolf marks in a total of 1,877 km surveyed and we searched for the pups' presence (1,497 howling and 307 observations points) in 42 sampling sites with a regular presence of wolves (120 sampling sites/year). The number of wolf marks was ca. 3 times higher in sites with a confirmed presence of pups (20.3 vs. 7.2 marks). We found a significant relationship between the number of wolf marks (mean and maximum relative abundance index) and the probability of wolf reproduction. This research establishes a real-time relationship between the intensity of wolf marking behaviour and wolf reproduction. We suggest a conservative cutting point of 0.60 for the probability of wolf reproduction to monitor wolves on a regional scale combined with the use of the mean relative abundance index of wolf marks in a given area. We show how the integration of wolf behaviour with simple sampling procedures permit rapid, real-time, and cost-effective assessments of the breeding status of wolf packs with substantial implications to monitor wolves at large spatial scales.

  17. Individual differences in fifth graders’ reading and language predict their comprehension monitoring development: An eye-movement study

    PubMed Central

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we investigated fifth-graders’ (n=52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation, and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children read two sentences; the second included either a plausible or implausible word in the context of the first sentence. Stronger readers had shorter reading times overall suggesting faster processing of text. Generally fifth-graders reacted to the implausible word (i.e., longer gaze duration on the implausible v. the plausible word, which reflects lexical access). Students with stronger academic language, compared to those with weaker academic language, generally spent more time re-reading the implausible target compared to the plausible target. This difference increased from fall to spring. Results support the centrality of academic language for meaning integration, setting standards of coherence, and utilizing comprehension repair strategies. PMID:27065721

  18. Model-Based Hookload Monitoring and Prediction at Drilling Rigs using Neural Networks and Forward-Selection Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnaout, A.; Fruhwirth, R.; Winter, M.; Esmael, B.; Thonhauser, G.

    2012-04-01

    The use of neural networks and advanced machine learning techniques in the oil & gas industry is a growing trend in the market. Especially in drilling oil & gas wells, prediction and monitoring different drilling parameters is an essential task to prevent serious problems like "Kick", "Lost Circulation" or "Stuck Pipe" among others. The hookload represents the weight load of the drill string at the crane hook. It is one of the most important parameters. During drilling the parameter "Weight on Bit" is controlled by the driller whereby the hookload is the only measure to monitor how much weight on bit is applied to the bit to generate the hole. Any changes in weight on bit will be directly reflected at the hookload. Furthermore any unwanted contact between the drill string and the wellbore - potentially leading to stuck pipe problem - will appear directly in the measurements of the hookload. Therefore comparison of the measured to the predicted hookload will not only give a clear idea on what is happening down-hole, it also enables the prediction of a number of important events that may cause problems in the borehole and yield in some - fortunately rare - cases in catastrophes like blow-outs. Heuristic models using highly sophisticated neural networks were designed for the hookload prediction; the training data sets were prepared in cooperation with drilling experts. Sensor measurements as well as a set of derived feature channels were used as input to the models. The contents of the final data set can be separated into (1) features based on rig operation states, (2) real-time sensors features and (3) features based on physics. A combination of novel neural network architecture - the Completely Connected Perceptron and parallel learning techniques which avoid trapping into local error minima - was used for building the models. In addition automatic network growing algorithms and highly sophisticated stopping criterions offer robust and efficient estimation of the

  19. Post-discharge electrocardiogram Holter monitoring in recently hospitalised individuals with chronic atrial fibrillation to enhance therapeutic monitoring and identify potentially predictive phenotypes.

    PubMed

    Ball, Jocasta; Carrington, Melinda J; Thompson, David R; Horowitz, John D; Stewart, Simon

    2015-10-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia managed in clinical practice. Maintenance of intended rate or rhythm control following hospitalisation is a key therapeutic goal. The purpose of this study was to assess post-discharge maintenance of intended AF control and classify potentially predictive heart rate (HR) phenotypes via electrocardiogram (ECG) Holter monitoring. In a sub-study of a multicentre randomised controlled trial comparing AF-specific management with usual care, 24-hour ECG Holter monitoring was undertaken in 133 patients 7-14 days post-discharge. Intended rate and rhythm control were compared to Holter data. Analysis of the frequency distribution of mean hour-to-hour differences identified those with labile HRs. Mean age was 71 ± 10 years, 67 (50%) were male and mean HR was 72 ± 14 bpm. Most (89%) had persistent AF (median time in AF=39% (IQR 0-100%)). Uncontrolled HR (>90 bpm for >10% of recording) occurred in 35 (26%) patients and 49 (37%) patients did not achieve their intended rate (n=26) or rhythm control (n=23). Patients in the upper quartile of mean hour-to-hour HR variability were identified as persistently labile (n=33). A further group (n=22) with periodically labile HRs was identified. Those with coronary artery disease (OR 0.34; 95% CI 0.13-0.91, p=0.033) or renal disease/dysfunction (OR 0.24; 95% CI 0.06-0.98, p=0.047) were less likely to demonstrate HR stability (n=78). Post-discharge ECG Holter monitoring of AF patients represents a valuable tool to identify deviations in intended rhythm/rate control and adjust therapeutic management accordingly. It may also identify individuals who demonstrate labile HRs. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  20. Can the early condition at admission of a high-risk infant aid in the prediction of mortality and poor neurodevelopmental outcome? A population study in Australia.

    PubMed

    Greenwood, Sarah; Abdel-Latif, Mohamed E; Bajuk, Barbara; Lui, Kei

    2012-07-01

    The aim of this article was to evaluate the Revised Clinical Risk Index for Babies' (CRIB-II) severity of illness score as a predictor of moderate to severe functional disability (FD) in very premature infants. Population study of infants born <29 weeks' gestation cared for in all Neonatal Intensive Care Unit in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory between 1998 and 2003. FD at 2-3 years corrected age was defined as developmental delay (quotient < 2 standard deviation), non-ambulatory cerebral palsy (needing aids to walk), blindness (acuity <6/60 in better eye) or deafness (hearing aids). Sensitivity and specificity of CRIB-II scores to predict FD were performed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Of study population of 2210, 480 (21.7%) died before hospital discharge. Among 1328 infants assessed, 217 (16.3%) had FD, 109 (8.2%) developmental delay, 75 (5.6%) cerebral palsy and 54 (4.1%) blindness or deafness. CRIB-II performed significantly better than gestation or birthweight (BW) alone in predicting mortality (area under the curve (AUC) ± standard error 0.83 ± 0.01, vs. 0.78 ± 0.01 and 0.76 ± 0.01, respectively). CRIB-II scores were significantly higher in FD than non-FD children (11.9 ± 2.9 vs. 10.1 ± 2.6), but the AUC for CRIB-II (0.68 ± 0.02) did not significantly differ from that of gestation (0.65 ± 0.02) and BW (0.65 ± 0.02). CRIB-II improved prediction of mortality but did not perform better than gestational age or BW in predicting FD. We would caution clinicians against using the infant's condition at admission to predict long-term outcome. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2012 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  1. Early evidence about the predicted unintended consequences of standardised packaging of tobacco products in Australia: a cross-sectional study of the place of purchase, regular brands and use of illicit tobacco

    PubMed Central

    Scollo, Michelle; Zacher, Meghan; Durkin, Sarah; Wakefield, Melanie

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To test for early evidence whether, following the standardisation of tobacco packaging, smokers in Australia were—as predicted by the tobacco industry—less likely to purchase from small mixed business retailers, more likely to purchase cheap brands imported from Asia and more likely to use illicit tobacco. Design Serial cross-sectional population telephone surveys in November 2011 (a year prior to implementation), 2012 (during roll-out) and 2013 (a year after implementation). Setting/participants Smokers aged 18 years and over identified in an annual population survey in the Australian state of Victoria (2011: n=754; 2012: n=590; 2013: n=601). Main outcome measures Changes between 2011 and 2013 in: proportions of current smokers who purchased their last cigarette from discount outlets such as supermarkets compared with small mixed business retail outlets; prevalence of regular use of low-cost brands imported from Asia and use of unbranded tobacco. Results The proportion of smokers purchasing from supermarkets did not increase between 2011 (65.4%) and 2013 (65.7%; p=0.98), and the percentage purchasing from small mixed business outlets did not decline (2011: 9.2%; 2012: 11.2%; p=0.32). The prevalence of low-cost Asian brands was low and did not increase between 2011 (1.1%) and 2013 (0.9%; p=0.98). The proportion reporting current use of unbranded illicit tobacco was 2.3% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2013 (p=0.46). In 2013, 2.6% of cigarette smokers reported having purchased one or more packets of cigarettes in non-compliant packaging in the past 3 months; 1.7% had purchased one or more packets from an informal seller in the past year. Conclusions One year after implementation, this study found no evidence of the major unintended consequences concerning loss of smoker patrons from small retail outlets, flooding of the market by cheap Asian brands and use of illicit tobacco predicted by opponents of plain packaging in Australia. PMID:25168041

  2. Early evidence about the predicted unintended consequences of standardised packaging of tobacco products in Australia: a cross-sectional study of the place of purchase, regular brands and use of illicit tobacco.

    PubMed

    Scollo, Michelle; Zacher, Meghan; Durkin, Sarah; Wakefield, Melanie

    2014-07-18

    To test for early evidence whether, following the standardisation of tobacco packaging, smokers in Australia were--as predicted by the tobacco industry--less likely to purchase from small mixed business retailers, more likely to purchase cheap brands imported from Asia and more likely to use illicit tobacco. Serial cross-sectional population telephone surveys in November 2011 (a year prior to implementation), 2012 (during roll-out) and 2013 (a year after implementation). Smokers aged 18 years and over identified in an annual population survey in the Australian state of Victoria (2011: n=754; 2012: n=590; 2013: n=601). Changes between 2011 and 2013 in: proportions of current smokers who purchased their last cigarette from discount outlets such as supermarkets compared with small mixed business retail outlets; prevalence of regular use of low-cost brands imported from Asia and use of unbranded tobacco. The proportion of smokers purchasing from supermarkets did not increase between 2011 (65.4%) and 2013 (65.7%; p=0.98), and the percentage purchasing from small mixed business outlets did not decline (2011: 9.2%; 2012: 11.2%; p=0.32). The prevalence of low-cost Asian brands was low and did not increase between 2011 (1.1%) and 2013 (0.9%; p=0.98). The proportion reporting current use of unbranded illicit tobacco was 2.3% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2013 (p=0.46). In 2013, 2.6% of cigarette smokers reported having purchased one or more packets of cigarettes in non-compliant packaging in the past 3 months; 1.7% had purchased one or more packets from an informal seller in the past year. One year after implementation, this study found no evidence of the major unintended consequences concerning loss of smoker patrons from small retail outlets, flooding of the market by cheap Asian brands and use of illicit tobacco predicted by opponents of plain packaging in Australia. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence

  3. Australia Great Barrier Reef

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2001-04-11

    The Great Barrier Reef extends for 2,000 kilometers along the northeastern coast of Australia. It is not a single reef, but a vast maze of reefs, passages, and coral cays islands that are part of the reef.

  4. Weipa, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2014-08-21

    This image from NASA Terra spacecraft shows the world largest bauxite mine found near Weipa, Queensland, Australia. The rich aluminum deposits were first recognized on the end of the Cape York Peninsula in 1955, and mining began in 1960.

  5. Noncontact monitoring of surface-wave nonlinearity for predicting the remaining life of fatigued steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogi, Hirotsugu; Hirao, Masahiko; Aoki, Shinji

    2001-07-01

    A nonlinear acoustic measurement is studied for fatigue damage monitoring. An electromagnetic acoustic transducer (EMAT) magnetostrictively couples to a surface-shear-wave resonance along the circumference of a rod specimen during rotating bending fatigue of carbon steels. Excitation of the EMAT at half of the resonance frequency caused the standing wave to contain only the second-harmonic component, which was received by the same EMAT to determine the second-harmonic amplitude. Thus measured surface-wave nonlinearity always showed two distinct peaks at 60% and 85% of the total life. We attribute the earlier peak to crack nucleation and growth, and the later peak to an increase of free dislocations associated with crack extension in the final stage. This noncontact resonance-EMAT measurement can monitor the evolution of the surface-shear-wave nonlinearity throughout the metal's fatigue life and detect the pertinent precursors of the eventual failure.

  6. Monitoring ankylosing spondylitis: clinically useful markers and prediction of clinical outcomes.

    PubMed

    Braun, Juergen; Kiltz, Uta; Sarholz, Michael; Heldmann, Frank; Regel, Andrea; Baraliakos, Xenofon

    2015-01-01

    Patient assessment in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) is multidimensional, and monitoring of disease activity, function and radiographic progression is complex. There is no simple 'gold standard' for measuring disease activity in all individual patients, as disease activity in axSpA is the sum of many different aspects and a complexity that cannot be represented by a single variable. Limited spinal mobility is a cardinal sign of ankylosing spondylitis and loss of spinal mobility has been reported to be a prognostic factor and most often evaluated with the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index. Imaging of the spine and assessment of safety aspects plays an important role in the monitoring of patients with axSpA. The timeframe for collecting information regarding disease activity, function and radiographic progression are recommended on an individual basis.

  7. Radar monitoring of hydrology in Maryland's forested coastal plain wetlands: Implications for predicted climate change and improved mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiner Lang, Megan

    Wetlands provide important services to society but Mid-Atlantic wetlands are at high risk for loss, with forested wetlands being especially vulnerable. Hydrology (flooding and soil moisture) controls wetland function and extent but it may be altered due to changes in climate and anthropogenic influence. Wetland hydrology must better understood in order to predict and mitigate the impact of these changes. Broad-scale forested wetland hydrology is difficult to monitor using ground-based and traditional remote sensing methods. C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could improve the capability to monitor forested wetland hydrology but the abilities and limitations of these data need further investigation. This study examined: (1) the link between climate and wetland hydrology; (2) the ability of ENVISAT SAR (C-HH and C-VV) data to monitor inundation and soil moisture in forested wetlands; (3) limitations inherent to C-band data (incidence angle, polarization, and phenology) when monitoring forested wetland hydrology; and (4) the accuracy of forested wetland maps produced using SAR data. The study was primarily conducted near the Patuxent River in Maryland but the influence of incidence angle was considered along the Roanoke River in North Carolina. This study showed: (1) climate was highly correlated with wetland inundation; (2) significant differences in C-VV and C-HH backscatter existed between forested areas of varying hydrology (uplands and wetlands) throughout the year; (3) C-HH backscatter was better correlated to hydrology than C-VV backscatter; (4) correlations were stronger during the leaf-off season; (5) the difference in backscatter between flooded and non-flooded areas did not sharply decline with incidence angle, as predicted; and (6) maps produced using SAR data had relatively high accuracy levels. Based on these findings, I concluded that hydrology is influenced by climate at the study site, and C-HH data should be able to monitor changes in

  8. The Health Behavior Schedule-II for Diabetes Predicts Self-Monitoring of Blood Glucose

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frank, Maxwell T.; Cho, Sungkun; Heiby, Elaine M.; Lee, Chun-I; Lahtela, Adrienne L.

    2006-01-01

    The Health Behavior Schedule-II for Diabetes (HBS-IID) is a 27-item questionnaire that was evaluated as a predictor of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG). The HBS-IID was completed by 96 adults with Type 2 diabetes. Recent glycosylated hemoglobin HbA1c and fasting blood glucose results were taken from participants' medical records. Only 31.3%…

  9. Regional scale monitoring of atmospheric water vapor content with GNSS infrastructure and numerical model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozsa, Szabolcs; Zeno Gyongyosi, Andras; Bartholy, Judit; Kern, Aniko; Weidinger, Tamas; Decsi, Anna; Kenyeres, Ambrus; Dombai, Ferenc; Adam, Jozsef

    2013-04-01

    Water, which is present in the troposphere in all three phases, has a unique feature among atmospheric components. Besides the formation of clouds and precipitation, it has a key role in atmospheric energy transport and it is the most important greenhouse gas. Due to its temporal and spatial variability, the monitoring of water in the atmosphere requires observations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The water content in the air can be measured directly by radiosondes, in order to monitor the vertical structure of the lower 30-35 km. In addition, remote sensing devices installed on spacecrafts, airframes and the Earth's surface are also available for the measurement of water content. These sensors yield the total water amount of a column of air, the so-called precipitable water (PW) content, in units of kg m-2 or mm. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are capable to monitor various parameters of the atmosphere. With the establishment of the active GNSS network in Hungary, it became feasible to quantify and monitor PW from GNSS observations. The advantage of this solution is the high spatial and temporal resolution of the observations. Modeling of the weather system is performed by the numerical solution of the atmospheric hydro-thermodynamic set of equations. Based on the actual weather as initial condition, the parameters of the expected weather can be estimated. In this study two different meteorological models (WRF and DBCRAS) - run at the Department of Meteorology at Eotvos Lorand University for weather research and forecasting purposes - are compared with the PW estimates provided by the GNSS infrastructure for 7 months in 2011. Deviation between measured data from different sources is near 1 mm in most cases. Forecast PW values show larger deviation from measured data, which results from weather condition dependent forecast errors.

  10. Nuclear magnetic resonance monitoring of treatment and prediction of outcome in multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed Central

    Miller, D H; Thompson, A J

    1999-01-01

    Magnetic resonance (MR) techniques provide an objective, sensitive and quantitative assessment of the evolving pathology in multiple sclerosis. There is an increasing definition of the pathological specificity of newer techniques, and more robust correlations with clinical evolution are emerging. As the pathophysiological basis of in vivo nuclear MR signal abnormalities is further elucidated, it is likely that the importance of MR as a tool to monitor new therapies will increase. PMID:10603620

  11. MOBILESAT: Australia's own

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagg, Michael

    1990-01-01

    Australia will be introducing a dedicated Mobile Satellite Communications System following the launch of the AUSSAT-B satellites late in 1991. The Mobile Satellite System, MOBILESAT, will provide circuit switched voice/data services and packet-switched data services for land, aeronautical and maritime users. Here, an overview is given of the development program being undertaken within Australia to enable a fully commercial service to be introduced in 1992.

  12. Prediction and characterization of multiple extremal paths in continuously monitored qubits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewalle, Philippe; Chantasri, Areeya; Jordan, Andrew N.

    2017-04-01

    We examine optimal paths between initial and final states for diffusive quantum trajectories in continuously monitored pure-state qubits, obtained as extrema of a stochastic path integral. We demonstrate the possibility of "multipaths" in the dynamics of continuously monitored qubit systems, wherein multiple optimal paths travel between the same pre- and postselected states over the same time interval. Optimal paths are expressed as solutions to a Hamiltonian dynamical system. The onset of multipaths may be determined by analyzing the evolution of a Lagrangian manifold in this phase space and is mathematically analogous to the formation of caustics in ray optics or semiclassical physics. Additionally, we develop methods for finding optimal traversal times between states or optimal final states given an initial state and evolution time; both give insight into the measurement dynamics of continuously monitored quantum states. We apply our methods in two systems: a qubit with two noncommuting observables measured simultaneously and a qubit measured in one observable while subject to a Rabi drive. In the two-observable case we find multipaths due to caustics, bounded by a diverging Van Vleck determinant, and their onset time. We also find multipaths generated by paths with different winding numbers around the Bloch sphere in both systems.

  13. Ambulatory BP monitoring and clinic BP in predicting small-for-gestational-age infants during pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Eguchi, K; Ohmaru, T; Ohkuchi, A; Hirashima, C; Takahashi, K; Suzuki, H; Kario, K; Matsubara, S; Suzuki, Mitsuaki

    2016-01-01

    The significance of ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) monitoring during pregnancy has not been established. We performed a prospective study to elucidate whether ABP measures are associated with small-for-gestational-age birth weight (SGA). We studied 146 pregnant women who were seen for maternal medical checkups or suspected hypertension. ABP monitoring was performed for further assessment of hypertension. The outcome measure was SGA. The subjects were classified by their medical history and ABP as having preeclampsia or gestational hypertension (n=68 cases), chronic hypertension (n=48) or white-coat hypertension (n=30). There were 50 (34.2%) cases of SGA by the fetal growth reference standard. In multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusting for age, body mass index, the presence of prior pregnancy, current smoking habit and the use of antihypertensive medications, 24-h SBP (per 10 mm Hg (odds ratio (OR): 1.74; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28-2.38; P<0.001)) was more closely associated with SGA than clinic BP (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 0.92-2.13; P=0.11). The results were essentially the same if 24-h BP was replaced by awake or sleep SBP. Ambulatory diastolic BP showed the same tendency. However, abnormal circadian rhythm was not associated with the outcome. In conclusion, ambulatory BP monitoring measures performed during pregnancy were more closely associated with SGA than clinic BP.

  14. Epileptic Seizure Detection and Prediction Based on Continuous Cerebral Blood Flow Monitoring--a Review.

    PubMed

    Tewolde, Senay; Oommen, Kalarickal; Lie, Donald Y C; Zhang, Yuanlin; Chyu, Ming-Chien

    2015-01-01

    Epilepsy is the third most common neurological illness, affecting 1% of the world's population. Despite advances in medicine, about 25 to 30% of the patients do not respond to or cannot tolerate the severe side effects of medical treatment, and surgery is not an option for the majority of patients with epilepsy. The objective of this article is to review the current state of research on seizure detection based on cerebral blood flow (CBF) data acquired by thermal diffusion flowmetry (TDF), and CBF-based seizure prediction. A discussion is provided on the applications, advantages, and disadvantages of TDF in detecting and localizing seizure foci, as well as its role in seizure prediction. Also presented are an overview of the present challenges and possible future research directions (along with methodological guidelines) of the CBF-based seizure detection and prediction methods.

  15. The Challenges of Developing a Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction (Alfred Wegener Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Eric F.

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ("From Observations to Decisions") recognizes that "water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity", and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the developments at Princeton University towards a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict

  16. Intensity of Territorial Marking Predicts Wolf Reproduction: Implications for Wolf Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    García, Emilio J.

    2014-01-01

    Background The implementation of intensive and complex approaches to monitor large carnivores is resource demanding, restricted to endangered species, small populations, or small distribution ranges. Wolf monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult, but the management of such contentious species requires regular estimations of abundance to guide decision-makers. The integration of wolf marking behaviour with simple sign counts may offer a cost-effective alternative to monitor the status of wolf populations over large spatial scales. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a multi-sampling approach, based on the collection of visual and scent wolf marks (faeces and ground scratching) and the assessment of wolf reproduction using howling and observation points, to test whether the intensity of marking behaviour around the pup-rearing period (summer-autumn) could reflect wolf reproduction. Between 1994 and 2007 we collected 1,964 wolf marks in a total of 1,877 km surveyed and we searched for the pups' presence (1,497 howling and 307 observations points) in 42 sampling sites with a regular presence of wolves (120 sampling sites/year). The number of wolf marks was ca. 3 times higher in sites with a confirmed presence of pups (20.3 vs. 7.2 marks). We found a significant relationship between the number of wolf marks (mean and maximum relative abundance index) and the probability of wolf reproduction. Conclusions/Significance This research establishes a real-time relationship between the intensity of wolf marking behaviour and wolf reproduction. We suggest a conservative cutting point of 0.60 for the probability of wolf reproduction to monitor wolves on a regional scale combined with the use of the mean relative abundance index of wolf marks in a given area. We show how the integration of wolf behaviour with simple sampling procedures permit rapid, real-time, and cost-effective assessments of the breeding status of wolf packs with substantial implications to monitor

  17. A new air quality monitoring and early warning system: Air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction.

    PubMed

    Yang, Zhongshan; Wang, Jian

    2017-10-01

    Air pollution in many countries is worsening with industrialization and urbanization, resulting in climate change and affecting people's health, thus, making the work of policymakers more difficult. It is therefore both urgent and necessary to establish amore scientific air quality monitoring and early warning system to evaluate the degree of air pollution objectively, and predict pollutant concentrations accurately. However, the integration of air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction to establish an air quality system is not common. In this paper, we propose a new air quality monitoring and early warning system, including an assessment module and forecasting module. In the air quality assessment module, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to determine the main pollutants and evaluate the degree of air pollution more scientifically. In the air pollutant concentration prediction module, a novel hybridization model combining complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, a modified cuckoo search and differential evolution algorithm, and an Elman neural network, is proposed to improve the forecasting accuracy of six main air pollutant concentrations. To verify the effectiveness of this system, pollutant data for two cities in China are used. The result of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation shows that the major air pollutants in Xi'an and Jinan are PM10 and PM2.5 respectively, and that the air quality of Xi'an is better than that of Jinan. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed hybrid model is remarkably superior to all benchmark models on account of its higher prediction accuracy and stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A case-control study of non-monitored ECG metrics preceding in-hospital bradyasystolic cardiac arrest: implication for predictive monitor alarms.

    PubMed

    Hu, Xiao; Do, Duc; Bai, Yong; Boyle, Noel G

    2013-01-01

    We investigated whether additional electrocardiographic (ECG) metrics not available on current patient monitors could predict bradyasystolic cardiac arrest in hospitalized adult patients. A retrospective case-control design was used to study eight ECG metrics from 22 adult bradyasystolic patients and their 45 control patients. The eight ECG metrics included heart rate, QRS width, interval from P-wave peak to QRS onset (PRp), heart rate-corrected interval from QRS onset to T-wave peak (QTpc), amplitude of QRS peak (rAmp), amplitude of P-wave (pAmp), amplitude of T-wave (tAmp), and absolute difference in the ECG amplitudes at QRS onset and offset divided by rAmp, that is, relative J-point amplitude (relJAmp). We derived the maximal true-positive rate (TPR) of detecting cardiac arrest at a globally minimal false-positive rate (FPR) for each metric and for the absolute slope values resulted from a linear fitting of the time series of these metrics. We also recorded the first time crossing the detection threshold to the time of arrest as lead time. Conditions of relJAmp >20% and PRp >196.6 ms, respectively, achieved a TPR of 22.7% and 27.3% with zero FPRs. The lead prediction time of these two conditions was 5.7 ± 6.8 hours and 8.0 ± 7.2 hours, respectively. Performance of triggers based on the absolute slope values depended on the window length used for linear fitting. rAmp slope of a 2-hour window, PRp slope of a 30-minute window, and relJAmp slope of a 2-hour window achieved the best TPR of 27.3% (FPR = 2.3%, lead time = 6.5 ± 5.7 hours), 14.3% (FPR=0.0%, lead time = 10.9 ± 10.9), and 18.2% (FPR = 2.3%, lead time = 8.8 ± 9.8), respectively. McNemar test showed that only relJAmp >20.0% is significantly different from the baseline trigger of HR >149.3 bpm (p=0.046). In addition, metrics-based and slope-based triggers were complementary as an "OR" combination of two single-metric triggers raised the TPR up to 45.4% with zero FPR. It is feasible to compute

  19. COMPLEMENTARY CO-KRIGING: SPATIAL PREDICTION USING DATA COMBINED FROM, SEVERAL POLLUTION MONITORING NETWORKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We consider the problem of optimal spatial prediction of an environmental variable using data from more than one sampling network. A model incorporating spatial dependence and measurement errors with network-specific biases and variances serves as the basis for the analysis of th...

  20. MRI Biomarkers for Hand-Motor Outcome Prediction and Therapy Monitoring following Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Horn, U.; Grothe, M.

    2016-01-01

    Several biomarkers have been identified which enable a considerable prediction of hand-motor outcome after cerebral damage already in the subacute stage after stroke. We here review the value of MRI biomarkers in the evaluation of corticospinal integrity and functional recruitment of motor resources. Many of the functional imaging parameters are not feasible early after stroke or for patients with high impairment and low compliance. Whereas functional connectivity parameters have demonstrated varying results on their predictive value for hand-motor outcome, corticospinal integrity evaluation using structural imaging showed robust and high predictive power for patients with different levels of impairment. Although this is indicative of an overall higher value of structural imaging for prediction, we suggest that this variation be explained by structure and function relationships. To gain more insight into the recovering brain, not only one biomarker is needed. We rather argue for a combination of different measures in an algorithm to classify fine-graded subgroups of patients. Approaches to determining biomarkers have to take into account the established markers to provide further information on certain subgroups. Assessing the best therapy approaches for individual patients will become more feasible as these subgroups become specified in more detail. This procedure will help to considerably save resources and optimize neurorehabilitative therapy. PMID:27747108

  1. MRI Biomarkers for Hand-Motor Outcome Prediction and Therapy Monitoring following Stroke.

    PubMed

    Horn, U; Grothe, M; Lotze, M

    2016-01-01

    Several biomarkers have been identified which enable a considerable prediction of hand-motor outcome after cerebral damage already in the subacute stage after stroke. We here review the value of MRI biomarkers in the evaluation of corticospinal integrity and functional recruitment of motor resources. Many of the functional imaging parameters are not feasible early after stroke or for patients with high impairment and low compliance. Whereas functional connectivity parameters have demonstrated varying results on their predictive value for hand-motor outcome, corticospinal integrity evaluation using structural imaging showed robust and high predictive power for patients with different levels of impairment. Although this is indicative of an overall higher value of structural imaging for prediction, we suggest that this variation be explained by structure and function relationships. To gain more insight into the recovering brain, not only one biomarker is needed. We rather argue for a combination of different measures in an algorithm to classify fine-graded subgroups of patients. Approaches to determining biomarkers have to take into account the established markers to provide further information on certain subgroups. Assessing the best therapy approaches for individual patients will become more feasible as these subgroups become specified in more detail. This procedure will help to considerably save resources and optimize neurorehabilitative therapy.

  2. Predictable pollution: an assessment of weather balloons and associated impacts on the marine environment--an example for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Owen R; Hamann, Mark; Smith, Walter; Taylor, Heidi

    2014-02-15

    Efforts to curb pollution in the marine environment are covered by national and international legislation, yet weather balloons are released into the environment with no salvage agenda. Here, we assess impacts associated with weather balloons in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA). We use modeling to assess the probability of ocean endpoints for released weather balloons and predict pathways post-release. In addition, we use 21 months of data from beach cleanup events to validate our results and assess the abundance and frequency of weather balloon fragments in the GBRWHA. We found between 65% and 70% of balloons land in the ocean and ocean currents largely determine final endpoints. Beach cleanup data revealed 2460 weather balloon fragments were recovered from 24 sites within the GBRWHA. This is the first attempt to quantify this problem and these data will add support to a much-needed mitigation strategy for weather balloon waste. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The Need for Regular Monitoring and Prediction of Ephemeral Water Bodies in SERVIR Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Eric

    2017-01-01

    With remote sensing and modeling techniques available today it is possible to regularly identify and monitor the presence of surface water globally, for a wide range of applications. Many of the available datasets and tools, however, do not adequately resolve small or ephemeral water bodies in a timely enough fashion to make local and subnational decisions about water resources management in developing regions. This presentation introduces a specific need focused on a basin in Senegal to develop a capability to identify and disseminate timely information on small and ephemeral water bodies, and we seek feedback on methods proposed to address this need.

  4. Near-infrared diffuse optical monitoring of cerebral blood flow and oxygenation for the prediction of vasovagal syncope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Ran; Shang, Yu; Wang, Siqi; Evans, Joyce M.; Rayapati, Abner; Randall, David C.; Yu, Guoqiang

    2014-01-01

    Significant drops in arterial blood pressure and cerebral hemodynamics have been previously observed during vasovagal syncope (VVS). Continuous and simultaneous monitoring of these physiological variables during VVS is rare, but critical for determining which variable is the most sensitive parameter to predict VVS. The present study used a novel custom-designed diffuse correlation spectroscopy flow-oximeter and a finger plethysmograph to simultaneously monitor relative changes of cerebral blood flow (rCBF), cerebral oxygenation (i.e., oxygenated/deoxygenated/total hemoglobin concentration: r[HbO2]/r[Hb]/rTHC), and mean arterial pressure (rMAP) during 70 deg head-up tilt (HUT) in 14 healthy adults. Six subjects developed presyncope during HUT. Two-stage physiological responses during HUT were observed in the presyncopal group: slow and small changes in measured variables (i.e., Stage I), followed by rapid and dramatic decreases in rMAP, rCBF, r[HbO2], and rTHC (i.e., Stage II). Compared to other physiological variables, rCBF reached its breakpoint between the two stages earliest and had the largest decrease (76±8%) during presyncope. Our results suggest that rCBF has the best sensitivity for the assessment of VVS. Most importantly, a threshold of ˜50% rCBF decline completely separated the subjects from those without presyncope, suggesting its potential for predicting VVS.

  5. Prediction of antidepressant response to venlafaxine by a combination of early response assessment and therapeutic drug monitoring.

    PubMed

    Stamm, T J; Becker, D; Sondergeld, L M; Wiethoff, K; Hiemke, C; O'Malley, G; Ricken, R; Bauer, M; Adli, M

    2014-07-01

    Early assessment of a therapeutic response is a central goal in antidepressant treatment. The present study examined the potential for therapeutic drug monitoring and symptom rating to predict venlafaxine treatment efficacy (measured by overall patient response and remission). 88 patients were uptitrated homogenously to 225 mg/day venlafaxine. Serum concentrations of venlafaxine (VEN) and its active metabolite O-desmethylvenlafaxine (ODV) were measured at week 2. Continuous psychopathometric ratings were measured for up to 6 weeks by independent study raters. An early improvement was significantly more common in venlafaxine responders than non-responders (χ(2); p=0.007). While ODV serum levels were significantly higher in responders (t test; p=0.006), VEN serum levels, sum level of VEN+ODV and the ratio of ODV/VEN levels were not. Moreover, patients who showed an early response combined with an ODV serum level above the median of 222 ng/mL were significantly more likely to achieve full response (binary logistic model; p<0.01). Sensitivity (84% for early response) and specificity (81% for combination of early response and therapeutic drug monitoring) were sufficient to qualify as a reasonable screening instrument. Our results indicate that early improvement and ODV serum concentration are predictive of therapeutic outcome and can thus be used to guide use of the antidepressant venlafaxine. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  6. Can intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring during cervical spine decompression predict post-operative segmental C5 palsy?

    PubMed Central

    Blaskiewicz, Donald J.; Ramirez, Bertha; Zhang, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Background C5 nerve root palsy is a known complication after cervical laminectomy or laminoplasty, characterized by weakness of the deltoid and bicep brachii muscles. The efficacy of intraoperative monitoring of these muscles is currently unclear. In the current prospective study, intraoperative monitoring through somatosensory (SSEPs), motor (TcMEPs) evoked potentials and real-time electromyography activity (EMG) were analyzed for their ability to detect or prevent deltoid muscle weakness after surgery. Methods One hundred consecutive patients undergoing laminectomy/laminoplasty with or without fusion were enrolled. Intraoperative SSEPs, TcMEPs and EMGs from each patient were studied and analyzed. Results Intraoperative EMG activity of the C5 nerve root was detected in 34 cases, 10 of which demonstrated a sustained and repetitive EMG activity lasting 5 or more minutes. Paresis of the unilateral deltoid muscle developed in 5 patients, all from the group with sustained C5 EMG activity. None of the patients with weakness of deltoid muscle after surgery demonstrated any abnormal change in TcMEP or SSEP. Conclusions Real-time EMG recordings were sensitive to C5 nerve root irritation, whilst SSEPs and TcMEPs were not. Sustained EMG activity of the C5 nerve root during surgery is a possible warning sign of irritation or injury to the nerve. PMID:27757428

  7. Ionosphere monitoring and forecast activities within the IAG working group "Ionosphere Prediction"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoque, Mainul; Garcia-Rigo, Alberto; Erdogan, Eren; Cueto Santamaría, Marta; Jakowski, Norbert; Berdermann, Jens; Hernandez-Pajares, Manuel; Schmidt, Michael; Wilken, Volker

    2017-04-01

    Ionospheric disturbances can affect technologies in space and on Earth disrupting satellite and airline operations, communications networks, navigation systems. As the world becomes ever more dependent on these technologies, ionospheric disturbances as part of space weather pose an increasing risk to the economic vitality and national security. Therefore, having the knowledge of ionospheric state in advance during space weather events is becoming more and more important. To promote scientific cooperation we recently formed a Working Group (WG) called "Ionosphere Predictions" within the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) under Sub-Commission 4.3 "Atmosphere Remote Sensing" of the Commission 4 "Positioning and Applications". The general objective of the WG is to promote the development of ionosphere prediction algorithm/models based on the dependence of ionospheric characteristics on solar and magnetic conditions combining data from different sensors to improve the spatial and temporal resolution and sensitivity taking advantage of different sounding geometries and latency. Our presented work enables the possibility to compare total electron content (TEC) prediction approaches/results from different centers contributing to this WG such as German Aerospace Center (DLR), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), Technische Universität München (TUM) and GMV. DLR developed a model-assisted TEC forecast algorithm taking benefit from actual trends of the TEC behavior at each grid point. Since during perturbations, characterized by large TEC fluctuations or ionization fronts, this approach may fail, the trend information is merged with the current background model which provides a stable climatological TEC behavior. The presented solution is a first step to regularly provide forecasted TEC services via SWACI/IMPC by DLR. UPC forecast model is based on applying linear regression to a temporal window of TEC maps in the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) domain

  8. Why savannah monitor lizards hyperventilate during activity: a comparison of model predictions and experimental data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tobias; Hicks, James W

    2004-12-15

    The functional and structural factors that limit maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max) in lizards are not completely understood. Using an integrative model describing the interactive nature of the individual oxygen transport conductances, we performed an analysis of the oxygen transport system in the highly aerobic lizard Varanus exanthematicus with specific reference to the sensitivity of VO2 max to potential limitations in the ventilatory system. Our analysis predicts that DLO2 must increase more than three-fold at VO2 max and even with this increase in DLO2 , the VO2 max may be sensitive to factors that alter lung ventilation and/or lower lung PO2. To test the predictions of the model analysis, we experimentally determined the effects of reducing inspired O2 on VO2 max during treadmill exercise. We conclude from both our theoretical and experimental analyses that V. exanthematicus operates near the functional limits of its lung.

  9. Using Predictions Based on Geostatistics to Monitor Trends in Aspergillus flavus Strain Composition.

    PubMed

    Orum, T V; Bigelow, D M; Cotty, P J; Nelson, M R

    1999-09-01

    ABSTRACT Aspergillus flavus is a soil-inhabiting fungus that frequently produces aflatoxins, potent carcinogens, in cottonseed and other seed crops. A. flavus S strain isolates, characterized on the basis of sclerotial morphology, are highly toxigenic. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the percentage of the A. flavus isolates that are S strain (S strain incidence) were used to predict patterns across areas of more than 30 km(2). Spatial autocorrelation in S strain incidence in Yuma County, AZ, was shown to extend beyond field boundaries to adjacent fields. Variograms revealed both short-range (2 to 6 km) and long-range (20 to 30 km) spatial structure in S strain incidence. S strain incidence at 36 locations sampled in July 1997 was predicted with a high correlation between expected and observed values (R = 0.85, P = 0.0001) by kriging data from July 1995 and July 1996. S strain incidence at locations sampled in October 1997 and March 1998 was markedly less than predicted by kriging data from the same months in prior years. Temporal analysis of four locations repeatedly sampled from April 1995 through July 1998 also indicated a major reduction in S strain incidence in the Texas Hill area after July 1997. Surface maps generated by kriging point data indicated a similarity in the spatial pattern of S strain incidence among all sampling dates despite temporal changes in the overall S strain incidence. Geostatistics provided useful descriptions of variability in S strain incidence over space and time.

  10. Tuberculosis notifications in Australia, 2010.

    PubMed

    Bareja, Christina; Waring, Justin; Stapledon, Richard

    2014-03-31

    The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System received 1,353 tuberculosis (TB) notifications in 2010, representing a rate of 6.1 cases per 100,000 population. While rates of 5 to 6 cases per 100,000 population for TB have been maintained in Australia, since first achieved in the mid-1980s, there has been a steady increase in incidence over the past decade. The incidence in the Australian-born Indigenous population was 7.5 per 100,000 population, which is 11 times the incidence reported in the Australian-born non-Indigenous population of 0.7 per 100,000 population. Overseas-born people accounted for 90% of all cases notified in 2010 and represented a rate of 24 per 100,000 population. International students have been recognised as an increasingly important group, representing 25% of all overseas-born cases notified in 2010, and are a focus of this report. Household or other close contact with TB or past residence in a high risk country were the most commonly reported risk factors for TB infection. Outcome data for the 2009 TB cohort indicate that treatment success was attained in more than 95% of cases. As Australia continues to contribute to global TB control it is important to maintain good centralised national reporting of TB to identify populations at risk and monitor trends in TB. copyright@health.gov.au

  11. Prediction and monitoring of the carcinogenicity of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs).

    PubMed

    Shaw, G R; Connell, D W

    1994-01-01

    Chemical carcinogenesis is a multistage process that includes initiation, promotion, and progression. Some carcinogenic PACs have been shown to activate proto-oncogenes and deactivate tumor-suppression genes in the carcinogenic process. The function of DNA repair processes appears to be changed in some cases by PACs. Many PACs are well known for their carcinogenic activity, but for this activity to be exerted, metabolic activation by microsomal enzymes must occur. The enzyme system responsible for PAC activation is the mixed-function oxidase system and, in particular, cytochrome P-450. In the case of PAHs, oxidation predominantly produces reactive diol-epoxides that can then be converted to carbonium ions as the reactive electrophiles that can then covalently bind to DNA. Regions of high activity exist in PAHs, namely, the "bay," "K," and "L" regions which are associated with pi electron distribution. The diol-epoxides can exist in either syn or anti forms, each of which has two enantiomers producing four stereoisomers in all. Energy considerations favor the formation of the anti form. Nitrogen-containing PACs can be metabolically activated in a manner similar to that for PAHs, or the nitrogen atom can be oxidized to form hydroxylamines. These reactive electrophiles can then form covalently bound DNA adducts. The monitoring of DNA adducts has been used in risk assessment for human exposure to PACs. This form of biomonitoring has advantages over the monitoring of external exposure or body levels of the chemicals in question. In the case of PACs, binding to DNA is an important step in the multistage carcinogenic process. The estimation of DNA adducts has been used in the monitoring of humans exposed to PAHs in a wide range of industrial situations. Recent research has shown a dose-response relationship between PAH adduct levels and human cancer, thus developing molecular epidemiology as a relevant science for the field of risk assessment. Techniques have been

  12. Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2006-01-01

    their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

  13. Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2006-01-01

    their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

  14. Investigation of Bearing Fatigue Damage Life Prediction Using Oil Debris Monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Bolander, Nathan; Haynes, Chris; Toms, Allison M.

    2011-01-01

    Research was performed to determine if a diagnostic tool for detecting fatigue damage of helicopter tapered roller bearings can be used to determine remaining useful life (RUL). The taper roller bearings under study were installed on the tail gearbox (TGB) output shaft of UH- 60M helicopters, removed from the helicopters and subsequently installed in a bearing spall propagation test rig. The diagnostic tool was developed and evaluated experimentally by collecting oil debris data during spall progression tests on four bearings. During each test, data from an on-line, in-line, inductance type oil debris sensor was monitored and recorded for the occurrence of pitting damage. Results from the four bearings tested indicate that measuring the debris generated when a bearing outer race begins to spall can be used to indicate bearing damage progression and remaining bearing life.

  15. In situ damage monitoring in vibration mechanics: diagnostics and predictive maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basseville, M.; Benveniste, A.; Gach-Devauchelle, B.; Goursat, M.; Bonnecase, D.; Dorey, P.; Prevosto, M.; Olagnon, M.

    1993-09-01

    A system identification approach is presented for damage monitoring in vibration mechanics. Identification, detection, and diagnostics are performed using accelerometer measurements from the system at work so that the excitation is not controlled, usually not observed and may involve turbulent phenomena. Targeted applications include power engineering (rotating machines, core and pipes of nuclear power plants), civil engineering (large buildings subject to hurricanes or earthquakes, bridges, dams, offshore structures), aeronautics (wings and other structures subject to strength), automobile, rail transportation etc. The method is illustrated by a laboratory example, and the results of 3 years industrial usage. This paper is a progress report on a 10 year project involving three people almost permanently. We describe here the whole approach but omit the technical details which are available in previous papers.

  16. Obesity, albuminuria, and gamma-glutamyl transferase predict incidence of hypertension in indigenous Australians in rural and remote communities in northern Australia.

    PubMed

    Li, Ming; McDermott, Robyn

    2015-04-01

    To describe the incidence of hypertension in a cohort of Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. A follow-up study conducted among 1831 indigenous population aged 15 years and over without hypertension at baseline from 19 communities in North Queensland during 1997-2008. Main measurements included baseline and follow-up weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting glucose, lipids (triglycerides and cholesterol), gamma-glutamyl transferase, urinary albumin creatinine ratio, self-reported tobacco smoking, alcohol intake and physical activity. Hundred cases of hypertension developed over 2633.4 person-years giving a crude incidence of hypertension of 22.6 (16.2-31.4) per 1000 person-years in females and 60.0 (47.1-76.6) per 1000 person-years for males. Age standardized overall incidence was 51.9 per 1000 person-years. Aboriginal participants were twice as likely as Torres Strait Islanders to develop hypertension, which increased with age. Obesity (BMI >30) strongly predicted incident hypertension independently of age or sex (adjusted hazard ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.9-4.8). Albuminuria and elevated gamma-glutamyl transferase increased the risk of hypertension (adjusted hazard ratio 1.4-1.7) in this population. Incidence of hypertension in indigenous Australian adults is nearly double than that of the general Australian population. High background prevalence of obesity, diabetes and albuminuria contributes to this excess. As well as early detection and management of high blood pressure, albuminuria and diabetes in primary care settings, attention should be equally focused on community-level prevention and management of obesity.

  17. Prediction and monitoring of clear air turbulence: An evaluation of the applicability of the rawinsonde system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, J. L.

    1978-01-01

    The applicability of rawinsonde data for either detection or prediction of clear air turbulence is discussed. The mechanism currently believed responsible for the development of CAT is reviewed. Since previous studies determined that the most significant factor for the existence of turbulent layers is the magnitude of the vertical shear, certain theoretically derived shear criteria was applied to statistical and diagnostic comparisons of rawinsonde and Jimsphere/Jimsonde conjunctive vertical profiles. It is determined that the Rawinsonde system cannot reliably be used as a CAT detector in a single-station sense.

  18. How many clinic BP readings are needed to predict cardiovascular events as accurately as ambulatory BP monitoring?

    PubMed

    Eguchi, K; Hoshide, S; Shimada, K; Kario, K

    2014-12-01

    We tested the hypothesis that multiple clinic blood pressure (BP) readings over an extended baseline period would be as predictive as ambulatory BP (ABP) for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Clinic and ABP monitoring were performed in 457 hypertensive patients at baseline. Clinic BP was measured monthly and the means of the first 3, 5 and 10 clinic BP readings were taken as the multiple clinic BP readings. The subjects were followed up, and stroke, HARD CVD, and ALL CVD events were determined as outcomes. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, ambulatory systolic BP (SBP) best predicted three outcomes independently of baseline and multiple clinic SBP readings. The mean of 10 clinic SBP readings predicted stroke (hazards ratio (HR)=1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.02-1.90, P=0.04) and ALL CVD (HR=1.41, 95% CI=1.13-1.74, P=0.002) independently of baseline clinic SBP. Clinic SBPs by three and five readings were not associated with any CVD events, except that clinic SBP by three readings was associated with ALL CVD (P=0.015). Besides ABP values, the mean of the first 10 clinic SBP values was a significant predictor of stroke and ALL CVD events. It is important to take more than several clinic BP readings early after the baseline period for the risk stratification of future CVD events.

  19. Comparison of two online flocculation monitoring techniques for predicting turbidity removal by granular media filtration.

    PubMed

    Ball, T; Carrière, A; Barbeau, B

    2011-07-01

    Particulate matter removal in drinking water treatment via direct granular filtration requires specific flocculation conditions (a process typically termed 'high energy flocculation'). Predicting filtered water turbidity based on flocculated water characteristics remains difficult. This study has sought to establish a relationship between filtered water turbidity and the flocculated water characteristics. Flocculation oflow-turbidity raw water was evaluated online using a Photometric Dispersion Analyser (PDA) and a Dynamic Particle Analyser in a modified jar test followed by a bench-scale anthracite filter. Coagulants used were alum, PASS100 and ferric sulphate, in addition to a polydiallyldimethylammonium chloride (polyDADMAC) cationic polymer. They were dosed in warm and cold waters, and flocculated with intensities (G) from 0 to 100 s(-1). Of the two instruments selected to analyse flocculation performance, the Dynamic Particle Analyser was shown to be the most sensitive, detecting small changes in floc growth kinetics and even floc growth under low flocculation conditions which remained undetected by the PDA. Floc size was shown to be insufficient in predicting particulate matter removal by direct granular filtration as measured by turbidity, although a threshold d(v) value (50 microm) could be identified for the test conditions evaluated in this project, above which turbidity was systematically lower than 0.2 NTU.

  20. Temporal epilepsy seizures monitoring and prediction using cross-correlation and chaos theory.

    PubMed

    Haddad, Tahar; Ben-Hamida, Naim; Talbi, Larbi; Lakhssassi, Ahmed; Aouini, Sadok

    2014-01-01

    Temporal seizures due to hippocampal origins are very common among epileptic patients. Presented is a novel seizure prediction approach employing correlation and chaos theories. The early identification of seizure signature allows for various preventive measures to be undertaken. Electro-encephalography signals are spectrally broken down into the following sub-bands: delta; theta; alpha; beta; and gamma. The proposed approach consists of observing a high correlation level between any pair of electrodes for the lower frequencies and a decrease in the Lyapunov index (chaos or entropy) for the higher frequencies. Power spectral density and statistical analysis tools were used to determine threshold levels for the lower frequencies. After studying all five sub-bands, the analysis has revealed that the seizure signature can be extracted from the delta band and the high frequencies. High frequencies are defined as both the gamma band and the ripples occurring within the 60-120 Hz sub-band. To validate the proposed approach, six patients from both sexes and various age groups with temporal epilepsies originating from the hippocampal area were studied using the Freiburg database. An average seizure prediction of 30 min, an anticipation accuracy of 72%, and a false-positive rate of 0% were accomplished throughout 200 h of recording time.

  1. Use of flow cytometry to monitor cell damage and predict fermentation activity of dried yeasts.

    PubMed

    Attfield, P V; Kletsas, S; Veal, D A; van Rooijen, R; Bell, P J

    2000-08-01

    Viable dried yeast is used as an inoculum for many fermentations in the baking and wine industries. The fermentative activity of yeast in bread dough or grape must is a critical parameter of process efficiency. Here, it is shown that fluorescent stains and flow cytometry can be used in concert to predict the abilities of populations of dried bakers' and wine yeasts to ferment after rehydration. Fluorescent dyes that stain cells only if they have damaged membrane potential (oxonol) or have increased membrane permeability (propidium iodide) were used to analyse, by flow cytometry, populations of rehydrated yeasts. A strong relationship (r2 = 0.99) was found between the percentages of populations staining with the oxonol and the degree of cell membrane damage as measured by the more traditional method of leakage of intracellular compounds. There were also were good negative relationships (r2 > or = 0.83) between fermentation by rehydrated bakers' or wine dry yeasts and percentage of populations staining with either oxonol or propidium iodide. Fluorescent staining with flow cytometry confirmed that factors such as vigour of dried yeast mixing in water, soaking before stirring, rehydration in water or fermentation medium and temperature of rehydration have profound effects on subsequent yeast vitality. These experiments indicate the potential of flow cytometry as a rapid means of predicting the fermentation performance of dried bakers' and wine yeasts.

  2. Transient stability enhancement of modern power grid using predictive Wide-Area Monitoring and Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yousefian, Reza

    This dissertation presents a real-time Wide-Area Control (WAC) designed based on artificial intelligence for large scale modern power systems transient stability enhancement. The WAC using the measurements available from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) at generator buses, monitors the global oscillations in the system and optimally augments the local excitation system of the synchronous generators. The complexity of the power system stability problem along with uncertainties and nonlinearities makes the conventional modeling non-practical or inaccurate. In this work Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm on the benchmark of Neural Networks (NNs) is used to map the nonlinearities of the system in real-time. This method different from both the centralized and the decentralized control schemes, employs a number of semi-autonomous agents to collaborate with each other to perform optimal control theory well-suited for WAC applications. Also, to handle the delays in Wide-Area Monitoring (WAM) and adapt the RL toward the robust control design, Temporal Difference (TD) is proposed as a solver for RL problem or optimal cost function. However, the main drawback of such WAC design is that it is challenging to determine if an offline trained network is valid to assess the stability of the power system once the system is evolved to a different operating state or network topology. In order to address the generality issue of NNs, a value priority scheme is proposed in this work to design a hybrid linear and nonlinear controllers. The algorithm so-called supervised RL is based on mixture of experts, where it is initialized by linear controller and as the performance and identification of the RL controller improves in real-time switches to the other controller. This work also focuses on transient stability and develops Lyapunov energy functions for synchronous generators to monitor the stability stress of the system. Using such energies as a cost function guarantees the convergence

  3. On the monitoring and prediction of flash floods in small and medium-sized catchments - the EXTRUSO project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiemann, Stefan; Eltner, Anette; Sardemann, Hannes; Spieler, Diana; Singer, Thomas; Thanh Luong, Thi; Janabi, Firas Al; Schütze, Niels; Bernard, Lars; Bernhofer, Christian; Maas, Hans-Gerd

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods regularly cause severe socio-economic damage worldwide. In parallel, climate change is very likely to increase the number of such events, due to an increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events (EASAC 2013). Whereas recent work primarily addresses the resilience of large catchment areas, the major impact of hydro-meteorological extremes caused by heavy precipitation is on small areas. Those are very difficult to observe and predict, due to sparse monitoring networks and only few means for hydro-meteorological modelling, especially in small catchment areas. The objective of the EXTRUSO project is to identify and implement appropriate means to close this gap by an interdisciplinary approach, combining comprehensive research expertise from meteorology, hydrology, photogrammetry and geoinformatics. The project targets innovative techniques for achieving spatio-temporal densified monitoring and simulations for the analysis, prediction and warning of local hydro-meteorological extreme events. The following four aspects are of particular interest: 1. The monitoring, analysis and combination of relevant hydro-meteorological parameters from various sources, including existing monitoring networks, ground radar, specific low-cost sensors and crowdsourcing. 2. The determination of relevant hydro-morphological parameters from different photogrammetric sensors (e.g. camera, laser scanner) and sensor platforms (e.g. UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) and UWV (unmanned water vehicle)). 3. The continuous hydro-meteorological modelling of precipitation, soil moisture and water flows by means of conceptual and data-driven modelling. 4. The development of a collaborative, web-based service infrastructure as an information and communication point, especially in the case of an extreme event. There are three major applications for the planned information system: First, the warning of local extreme events for the population in potentially affected areas, second, the support

  4. Monitoring of the stress state variations of the Southern California for the purpose of earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gokhberg, M.; Garagash, I.; Bondur, V.; Steblov, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    The three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California was developed, including a mountain relief, fault tectonics and characteristic internal features such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface. The initial stress state of the model is governed by the gravitational forces and horizontal tectonic motions estimated from GPS observations. The analysis shows that the three-dimensional geomechanical models allows monitoring of the changes in the stress state during the seismic process in order to constrain the distribution of the future places with increasing seismic activity. This investigation demonstrates one of possible approach to monitor upcoming seismicity for the periods of days - weeks - months. Continuous analysis of the stress state was carried out during 2009-2014. Each new earthquake with М~1 and above from USGS catalog was considered as the new defect of the Earth crust which has some definite size and causes redistribution of the stress state. Overall calculation technique was based on the single function of the Earth crust damage, recalculated each half month. As a result each half month in the upper crust layers and partially in the middle layers we revealed locations of the maximal values of the stress state parameters: elastic energy density, shear stress, proximity of the earth crust layers to their strength limit. All these parameters exhibit similar spatial and temporal distribution. How follows from observations all four strongest events with М ~ 5.5-7.2 occurred in South California during the analyzed period were prefaced by the parameters anomalies in peculiar advance time of weeks-months in the vicinity of 10-50 km from the upcoming earthquake. After the event the stress state source disappeared. The figure shows migration of the maximums of the stress state variations gradients (parameter D) in the vicinity of the epicenter of the earthquake 04.04.2010 with М=7.2 in the period of 01.01.2010-01.05.2010. Grey lines

  5. Monitoring and Predicting Wildfire Using Fire Indices and CIMP5 Data (Case study: Golestan National Park)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirzadeh, S. J.; Salehnia, N.; Banezhad, B.; Bannayan, M.

    2015-12-01

    Fire occurrence in fields and forest, is quite high in Iran which has intensified recently and it may be due to climate changes. Golestan National Park, is the first national park in Iran which is registered in the list of UNESCO World Heritage as one of the 50 Earth ecological reserves. In 2014, a number of fire occurred in this park. In this study, attempt to monitor Angstrom and Nestrov indexes in order to forecast future fire in the study area. For this purpose, Atmosphere General Circulation model data; Miroc4h, in 0.562*0.562 scale in CIMP5, are used for fire occurred during 4 days in this area. Calculations show that these indicators provide suitable results in fire forecasting, generally. Angstrom index, decreases to 1 or lower almost in 3 fire, in the starting day or one day before; while critical index values is lower than 2. In recent days before first fire, Nestrov index increases above 10000, which is the critical value. It also increases to 25000 during the other fires. Nestrov index increases during the happening of 4 fire without any decrease. The results show that Angstrom index can forecast the day of starting fires better than Nestrov. Conclusively, the results showed that outputs of CIMP5 can be used in forecasting fire, well. It seems that the value index better not to be dependent on daily precipitation but on consecutive and continues precipitations during serial days.

  6. Monitoring and Prediction of Precipitable Water Vapor using GPS data in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ansari, Kutubuddin; Althuwaynee, Omar F.; Corumluoglu, Ozsen

    2016-12-01

    Although Global Positioning System (GPS) primarily provide accurate estimates of position, velocity and time of the receiver, as the signals pass through the atmoshphere carrying its signatures, thus offers opportunities for atmoshpheric applications. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is a vital component of the atmosphere and significantly influences atmospheric processes like rainfall and atmospheric temperature. The developing networks of continuously operating GPS can be used to efficiently estimate PWV. The Turkish Permanent GPS Network (TPGN) is employed to monitor PWV information in Turkey. This work primarily aims to derive long-term data of PWV by using atmospheric path delays observed through continuously operating TPGN from November 2014 to October 2015. A least square mathematical approach was then applied to establish the relation of the observed PWV to rainfall and temperature. The modeled PWV was correlated with PWV estimated from GPS data, with an average correlation of 67.10 %-88.60 %. The estimated root mean square error (RMSE) varied from 2.840 to 6.380, with an average of 4.697. Finally, data of TPGN, rainfall, and temperature were obtained for less than 2 months (November 2015 to December 2015) and assessed to validate the mathematical model. This study provides a basis for determining PWV by using rainfall and temperature data.

  7. [Predictive variables for mental retardation in a Pediatric Epilepsy Monitoring Unit. Neuropsychological assessment].

    PubMed

    López-Sala, A; Palacio-Navarro, A; Donaire, A; García, G; Colomé, R; Boix, C; Sans, A; Campistol, J; Sanmartí, F X

    2010-03-03

    We sought to describe the epidemiological and clinical data from our patients in the Pediatric Epilepsy Monitoring Unit (PEMU) of the Sant Joan de Deu Hospital of Barcelona, and determine the variables of risk for mental retardation. A retrospective review of PEMU reports and hospital discharge summaries from March 2005 to December 2008 was conducted. The data from patients with intelligence quotient (IQ) estimated, older than 3 years of age and with epileptic electroencephalography (EEG) activity was analyzed in 158 patients (8.8 +/- 5.2 years; 55.1% boys). Of those pediatric patients, 63 had IQ less than 70 and 47 an IQ greater than or equal to 70. Intractable epilepsy was present in all of them. The percentage of the patients with mental retardation is significantly higher in patients with onset of epilepsy before 24 months (68.3%) than patients with later onset (27.7%). Onset of seizures, EEG findings and epilepsy etiology are significant risk factors for mental retardation. Early age at seizure, multifocal epilepsy and cryptogenic etiology are factors of worse prognosis to normal development of cognitive functions in pediatric intractable epilepsy.

  8. Chemiluminescence as a condition monitoring method for thermal aging and lifetime prediction of an HTPB elastomer.

    SciTech Connect

    Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Minier, Leanna M. G.; Celina, Mathias Christopher; Trujillo, Ana B.

    2007-03-01

    Chemiluminescence (CL) has been applied as a condition monitoring technique to assess aging related changes in a hydroxyl-terminated-polybutadiene based polyurethane elastomer. Initial thermal aging of this polymer was conducted between 110 and 50 C. Two CL methods were applied to examine the degradative changes that had occurred in these aged samples: isothermal 'wear-out' experiments under oxygen yielding initial CL intensity and 'wear-out' time data, and temperature ramp experiments under inert conditions as a measure of previously accumulated hydroperoxides or other reactive species. The sensitivities of these CL features to prior aging exposure of the polymer were evaluated on the basis of qualifying this method as a quick screening technique for quantification of degradation levels. Both the techniques yielded data representing the aging trends in this material via correlation with mechanical property changes. Initial CL rates from the isothermal experiments are the most sensitive and suitable approach for documenting material changes during the early part of thermal aging.

  9. Airborne monitoring of crop canopy temperatures for irrigation scheduling and yield prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Millard, J. P.; Jackson, R. D.; Reginato, R. J.; Idso, S. B.; Goettelman, R. C.; Lapado, R. L.

    1977-01-01

    The aim of the program discussed was to develop techniques for remotely measuring crop irrigation needs and predicting crop yields, with emphasis on wheat. Airborne measurements, using an IR line scanner and color IR photography, were made to evaluate the feasibility of measuring minimum and maximum (dawn and afternoon) crop temperatures to compute a parameter, termed 'stress degree day' (SDD) - a valuable indicator of crop water needs, which can be related to irrigation scheduling and yield. Crop canopy temperature measurements by airborne IR techniques revealed the superiority of thermal IR data over color IR photography. Water stress undetected in the latter technique was clearly detected in thermal imagery. Color IR photography, however, is valuable in discerning vegetation. The pseudo-colored temperature-difference images (and pseudo-colored images, reading directly in daily SDD increments) are shown to be well suited for assessing plant water status and, thus, for determining the irrigation needs and crop yield potentials.

  10. A Business Analytics Software Tool for Monitoring and Predicting Radiology Throughput Performance.

    PubMed

    Jones, Stephen; Cournane, Seán; Sheehy, Niall; Hederman, Lucy

    2016-12-01

    Business analytics (BA) is increasingly being utilised by radiology departments to analyse and present data. It encompasses statistical analysis, forecasting and predictive modelling and is used as an umbrella term for decision support and business intelligence systems. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether utilising BA technologies could contribute towards improved decision support and resource management within radiology departments. A set of information technology requirements were identified with key stakeholders, and a prototype BA software tool was designed, developed and implemented. A qualitative evaluation of the tool was carried out through a series of semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Feedback was collated, and emergent themes were identified. The results indicated that BA software applications can provide visibility of radiology performance data across all time horizons. The study demonstrated that the tool could potentially assist with improving operational efficiencies and management of radiology resources.

  11. Monitoring methods and predictive models for water status in Jonathan apples.

    PubMed

    Trincă, Lucia Carmen; Căpraru, Adina-Mirela; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Volf, Irina; Chiruţă, Ciprian

    2014-02-01

    Evaluation of water status in Jonathan apples was performed for 20 days. Loss moisture content (LMC) was carried out through slow drying of wholes apples and the moisture content (MC) was carried out through oven drying and lyophilisation for apple samples (chunks, crushed and juice). We approached a non-destructive method to evaluate LMC and MC of apples using image processing and multilayer neural networks (NN) predictor. We proposed a new simple algorithm that selects the texture descriptors based on initial set heuristically chosen. Both structure and weights of NN are optimised by a genetic algorithm with variable length genotype that led to a high precision of the predictive model (R(2)=0.9534). In our opinion, the developing of this non-destructive method for the assessment of LMC and MC (and of other chemical parameters) seems to be very promising in online inspection of food quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Healthcare in Australia.

    PubMed

    Dalton-Brown, Sally

    2016-07-01

    No single issue has dominated health practitioners' ethical debates in 2014 in Australia, but a controversial decision on gene patenting and the media focus on "Dr. Death," euthanasia campaigner Dr. Philip Nitschke, have given new life to these two familiar (and global) debates. Currently a dying with dignity bill, drafted by the Australian Green Party, is under examination. The Senate inquiry into the bill received more than 663 submissions, with 57% opposed and 43% in support of the bill, which has now been referred to a Senate committee. Will this be another of Australia's failed attempts to legalize euthanasia? The trial of Dr. Nitschke begins on November 10, 2014.

  13. Cyclone Chris Hits Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    This false-color image shows Cyclone Chris shortly after it hit Australia's northwestern coast on February 6, 2002. This scene was acquired by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite. (Please note that this scene has not been reprojected.) Cyclone Chris is one of the most powerful storms ever to hit Australia. Initially, the storm contained wind gusts of up to 200 km per hour (125 mph), but shortly after making landfall it weakened to a Category 4 storm. Meteorologists expect the cyclone to weaken quickly as it moves further inland.

  14. Monitoring and predicting community mental health centre utilization in Auckland, New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Hall, G B

    1988-01-01

    Deinstitutionalization of mental health care has been in progress in many countries for over a quarter of a century. A comprehensive and detailed literature has evolved focussing on this process and its implications for alternative forms of combatting the incidence of mental illness. Most notably, literature has concentrated on the need for community-based mental health services both to prevent hospitalization in the first place and to ease the return of the hospital patient into the outside environment. In this paper the evolution of such a community-based system in metropolitan Auckland, New Zealand is discussed. More specifically, the focus is on the utilization of four community-based centres, with a view to plan better growth or reduction of service provision. Two dimensions of centre use, spatial and sociodemographic, are analysed and incorporated into four predictive models that, with appropriate refinement, can be used to determine the likely level of centre use in unserviced parts of the metropolitan area. Distance of individuals from centre locations is shown to be a significant factor in affecting use for three suburban primary prevention and intervention centres, whilst distance is non-significant for an inner-city aftercare facility. Also, various combinations of socio-demographic variables, reflecting service-specific needs for specific groups in the population, are shown to contribute significantly to predicting centre use. The paper presents the results against a policy backdrop in New Zealand where community mental health services are very much experimental in nature. The results reaffirm the importance of community mental health care in fulfilling an important need in society that health care administrators should take seriously in future policy developments.

  15. Prediction of acute mountain sickness by monitoring arterial oxygen saturation during ascent.

    PubMed

    Karinen, Heikki M; Peltonen, Juha E; Kähönen, Mika; Tikkanen, Heikki O

    2010-01-01

    Acute mountain sickness (AMS) is a common problem while ascending at high altitude. AMS may progress rapidly to fatal results if the acclimatization process fails or symptoms are neglected and the ascent continues. Extensively reduced arterial oxygen saturation at rest (R-Spo₂) has been proposed as an indicator of inadequate acclimatization and impending AMS. We hypothesized that climbers less likely to develop AMS on further ascent would have higher Spo₂ immediately after exercise (Ex-Spo₂) at high altitudes than their counterparts and that these postexercise measurements would provide additional value for resting measurements to plan safe ascent. The study was conducted during eight expeditions with 83 ascents. We measured R-Spo₂ and Ex-Spo₂ after moderate daily exercise [50 m walking, target heart rate (HR) 150 bpm] at altitudes of 2400 to 5300 m during ascent. The Lake Louise Questionnaire was used in the diagnosis of AMS. Ex-Spo₂ was lower at all altitudes among those climbers suffering from AMS during the expeditions than among those climbers who did not get AMS at any altitude during the expeditions. Reduced R-Spo₂ and Ex-Spo₂ measured at altitudes of 3500 and 4300 m seem to predict impending AMS at altitudes of 4300 m (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01) and 5300 m (both p < 0.01). Elevated resting HR did not predict impending AMS at these altitudes. Better aerobic capacity, younger age, and higher body mass index (BMI) were also associated with AMS (all p < 0.01). In conclusion, those climbers who successfully maintain their oxygen saturation at rest, especially during exercise, most likely do not develop AMS. The results suggest that daily evaluation of Spo₂ during ascent both at rest and during exercise can help to identify a population that does well at altitude.

  16. Prediction of hypertensive crisis based on average, variability and approximate entropy of 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.

    PubMed

    Schoenenberger, A W; Erne, P; Ammann, S; Perrig, M; Bürgi, U; Stuck, A E

    2008-01-01

    Approximate entropy (ApEn) of blood pressure (BP) can be easily measured based on software analysing 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), but the clinical value of this measure is unknown. In a prospective study we investigated whether ApEn of BP predicts, in addition to average and variability of BP, the risk of hypertensive crisis. In 57 patients with known hypertension we measured ApEn, average and variability of systolic and diastolic BP based on 24-h ABPM. Eight of these fifty-seven patients developed hypertensive crisis during follow-up (mean follow-up duration 726 days). In bivariate regression analysis, ApEn of systolic BP (P<0.01), average of systolic BP (P=0.02) and average of diastolic BP (P=0.03) were significant predictors of hypertensive crisis. The incidence rate ratio of hypertensive crisis was 14.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8, 631.5; P<0.01) for high ApEn of systolic BP as compared to low values. In multivariable regression analysis, ApEn of systolic (P=0.01) and average of diastolic BP (P<0.01) were independent predictors of hypertensive crisis. A combination of these two measures had a positive predictive value of 75%, and a negative predictive value of 91%, respectively. ApEn, combined with other measures of 24-h ABPM, is a potentially powerful predictor of hypertensive crisis. If confirmed in independent samples, these findings have major clinical implications since measures predicting the risk of hypertensive crisis define patients requiring intensive follow-up and intensified therapy.

  17. An observational study of skin conductance monitoring as a means of predicting hypotension from spinal anaesthesia for caesarean delivery.

    PubMed

    Ledowski, T; Paech, M J; Browning, R; Preuss, J; Schug, S A

    2010-07-01

    Hypotension after spinal anaesthesia is a common and important complication at caesarean delivery. Skin conductance monitoring has been shown to predict post-spinal hypotension in elderly patients and may be a rapid, non-invasive means of predicting risk in the obstetric population. Women having elective caesarean delivery were included in this observational pilot trial. Baseline data were obtained for blood pressure, heart rate and skin conductance variables before administration of spinal anaesthesia and at 1-min intervals for 20 min thereafter. Correlations between baseline data and minimum post-spinal blood pressure were calculated, and the predictive value of baseline variables was estimated by use of receiver operator characteristics. Forty women completed the study. Spinal anaesthesia was followed in most cases by a significant reduction from baseline in systolic blood pressure [0-9% n=2 (5%), 10-20% n=21 (52.5%), 20-30% n=12 (30%), >30% n=5 (12.5%)]. Minimum systolic blood pressure was >100 mmHg in 25 (62%), 80-100 mmHg in 12 (30%) and < 80 mmHg in 3 (7.5%) patients. Fasting times, spinal block distribution, baseline heart rate, blood pressure or baseline skin conductance did not predict post-spinal hypotension or neonatal outcome. In contrast to a previous report in elderly patients, we were unable to demonstrate a significant relationship between baseline sympathetic tone, measured by skin conductance, and hypotension following spinal anaesthesia in women undergoing elective caesarean delivery. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Role of CT Perfusion in Monitoring and Prediction of Response to Therapy of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Preda, Lorenzo; Moscatelli, Marco Elvio Manlio; Cossu Rocca, Maria

    2014-01-01

    This review aims to summarize the technique and clinical applications of CT perfusion (CTp) of head and neck cancer. The most common pathologic type (90%) of head and neck cancer is squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC): its diagnostic workup relies on CT and MRI, as they provide an accurate staging for the disease by determining tumour volume, assessing its extension, and detecting of lymph node metastases. Compared with conventional CT and MRI, CTp allows for obtaining measures of tumour vascular physiology and functional behaviour, and it has been demonstrated to be a feasible and useful tool in predicting local outcomes in patients undergoing radiation therapy and chemotherapy and may help monitor both treatments. PMID:25140324

  19. Flooding in Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-07

    On Jan. 7, 2011, NASA Terra spacecraft captured this image of the inundated city of Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia. Torrential rains in NE Australia caused the Fitzroy River to overflow its banks and flood much of the city.

  20. Monitoring and predicting eutrophication of Sri Lankan inland waters using ASTER satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahanayaka, D. D. G. L.; Wijeyaratne, M. J. S.; Tonooka, H.; Minato, A.; Ozawa, S.; Perera, B. D. C.

    2014-10-01

    This study focused on determining the past changes and predicting the future trends in eutrophication of the Bolgoda North lake, Sri Lanka using in situ Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) measurements and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer (ASTER) satellite data. This Lake is located in a mixed land use area with industries, some agricultural lands, middle income and high income housing, tourist hotels and low income housing. From March to October 2013, water samples from five sampling sites were collected once a month parallel to ASTER overpass and Chl-a, nitrate and phosphate contents of each sample were measured using standard laboratory methods. Cloud-free ASTER scenes over the lake during the 2000-2013 periods were acquired for Chl-a estimation and trend analysis. All ASTER images were atmospherically corrected using FLAASH software and in-situ Chl-a data were regressed with atmospherically corrected three ASTER VNIR band ratios of the same date. The regression equation of the band ratio and Chl-a content with the highest correlation, which was the green/red band ratio was used to develop algorithm for generation of 15-m resolution Chl-a distribution maps. According to the ASTER based Chl-a distribution maps it was evident that eutrophication of this lake has gradually increased from 2008-2011. Results also indicated that there had been significantly high eutrophic conditions throughout the year 2013 in several regions, especially in water stagnant areas and adjacent to freshwater outlets. Field observations showed that this lake is receiving various discharges from factories. Unplanned urbanization and inadequacy of proper facilities in the nearby industries for waste management have resulted in the eutrophication of the water body. If the present trends of waste disposal and unplanned urbanization continue, enormous environmental problems would be resulted in future. Results of the present study showed that information from satellite remote

  1. A global observing system for monitoring and prediction of sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Lee-Lueng

    The rise of global sea level is a direct consequence of climate change. A one-meter rise by the end of the century is estimated to have global economic impacts by trillions of US dollars and displacement of 10% of the world’s population if no adaptation is applied. Before the advent of satellite observations of sea surface height with radar altimetry, it was not possible to make direct determination of the global mean sea level. The sparsely located tide gauges were not able to sample the uneven spatial distribution of sea level change, leading to biased measurement. The 20-year record from satellite altimetry is the first directly measured time series of the global mean sea level. The satellite’s uniform global sampling also reveals the complex geographic pattern of sea level change over the past 20 years, underscoring the uncertainty from sparse tide gauge measurement. The contributions to recent sea level rise have roughly equal partitions among the steric effect from ocean warming, the melting of mountain glaciers, and the melting of polar ice sheets. The measurement of the change of Earth’s gravity field from the GRACE Mission has for the first time provided direct observation of the mass added to the ocean from ice melting. The difference between altimetry and gravity measurements is attributed to the steric sea level change, which has been observed by an in-situ network of float measurement (Argo). The intercomparison of satellite and in-situ observations has provided cross-calibration and mutual validation of the measurement system, demonstrating a calibrated measurement system for global sea level. The ability to diagnose sea level change in terms of its various components represents a key step towards understanding the physical processes. In order to assess the societal impact of sea level rise, one must be able to predict its regional pattern, which involves a host of other factors. The prediction of sea level change thus requires an Earth system

  2. An integrated modeling approach for monitoring and predicting common reed (Phragmites australis) colonization in a managed South Carolina estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Samuel Peter

    Recently, research efforts have focused on the development and testing of geographic information processing (GIP) techniques to more effectively identify and monitor invasive plant species in coastal ecosystems. While these efforts are progressing, particularly with refinements in hyperspectral image processing, there remains a lack of practical, science-based tools for decision-making with respect to the monitoring and mitigation of invasive plant species. Therefore, a geographic information systems (GIS) model is proposed to quantify the probability of a future exotic plant invasion in a user-defined area of interest. The primary objective of this investigation is to present conceptual and technical descriptions of a proposed modeling approach for prediction of common reed (Phragmites australis) colonization in a managed coastal wetland environment. Successful validation and adoption of the model will promote continued discourse regarding the impact of invasive species in coastal ecosystems, while providing the management community with a valuable decision support tool. Three main chapters comprise this manuscript; Chapter 1 focuses on the evaluation of remote sensing data and techniques for directly identifying Phragmites australis in a coastal ecosystem; Chapter 2 describes proposed, GIS-based models for predicting Phragmites colonization and future growth projections; and Chapter 3 discusses the results of the compiled relative suitability index (RSI) compilation and growth models, and considers the key management implications of the investigation. In the absence of a universal eradication solution for the invasive species Phragmites australis, an integrated management approach that utilizes a suite of dynamic, geo-spatial techniques in concert with more traditional practices is ultimately recommended. Keywords. Invasive species, estuary, NERRS, Phragmites, GIS-based models, remote sensing, coastal resource management, geographic information processing.

  3. Monitoring and predicting the fecal indicator bacteria concentrations from agricultural, mixed land use and urban stormwater runoff.

    PubMed

    Paule-Mercado, M A; Ventura, J S; Memon, S A; Jahng, D; Kang, J-H; Lee, C-H

    2016-04-15

    While the urban runoff are increasingly being studied as a source of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), less is known about the occurrence of FIB in watershed with mixed land use and ongoing land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this study, Escherichia coli (EC) and fecal streptococcus (FS) were monitored from 2012 to 2013 in agricultural, mixed and urban LULC and analyzed according to the most probable number (MPN). Pearson correlation was used to determine the relationship between FIB and environmental parameters (physicochemical and hydrometeorological). Multiple linear regressions (MLR) were used to identify the significant parameters that affect the FIB concentrations and to predict the response of FIB in LULC change. Overall, the FIB concentrations were higher in urban LULC (EC=3.33-7.39; FS=3.30-7.36log10MPN/100mL) possibly because of runoff from commercial market and 100% impervious cover (IC). Also, during early-summer season; this reflects a greater persistence and growth rate of FIB in a warmer environment. During intra-event, however, the FIB concentrations varied according to site condition. Anthropogenic activities and IC influenced the correlation between the FIB concentrations and environmental parameters. Stormwater temperature (TEMP), turbidity, and TSS positively correlated with the FIB concentrations (p>0.01), since IC increased, implying an accumulation of bacterial sources in urban activities. TEMP, BOD5, turbidity, TSS, and antecedent dry days (ADD) were the most significant explanatory variables for FIB as determined in MLR, possibly because they promoted the FIB growth and survival. The model confirmed the FIB concentrations: EC (R(2)=0.71-0.85; NSE=0.72-0.86) and FS (R(2)=0.65-0.83; NSE=0.66-0.84) are predicted to increase due to urbanization. Therefore, these findings will help in stormwater monitoring strategies, designing the best management practice for FIB removal and as input data for stormwater models.

  4. The GEO Water Strategy: Advances in Monitoring, Modeling, and Predicting Groundwater Variations at Regional to Local Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, N. L.; Heinrich, L.; Kukuri, N.; Plag, H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Rodell, M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater remains one of the most important freshwater resources, especially during droughts and as global warming increases. For informed decisions on managing these resources sustainably, it is important to have sound assessments of the current state of groundwater resources as well as future predictions. This requires reliable groundwater quantity and quality data. However global access to this data is limited. As part of the GEOSS Water Strategy, the International Groundwater Assessment Centre (IGRAC) is therefore implementing the Global Groundwater Monitoring Network (GGMN). The GGMN facilitates periodic assessments of changes in groundwater quantity and quality by aggregating data and information from existing groundwater monitoring networks and regional hydrogeological knowledge (Fig. 1). The GGMN is a participatory process that relies upon contributions from regional and national networks of groundwater experts. Such observation data, along with local well data, surface displacements observed by and GPS data and InSAR, and local in situ gravity data, are necessary for evaluation and simulation of groundwater, leading to improved understanding and prediction of groundwater variations. In conjunction with these observations, regional scale groundwater variations are derived as a residual from land surface-groundwater models through extraction of the total mass of water using geo-rectified Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. Such model-based studies have quantified overdraft and regions at risk of groundwater depletion in parts of Asia, US, and Africa (Fig. 2).We provide an overview of these systems, planned missions, and new model-based approaches toward local-scale methods for assimilation of well data for several regions.igure 1. Example of GGMN (Example of Botswana with fictitious data, with local precipitation map) igure 2. GRACE-derived groundwater storage in northwestern India for 2002 - 2008, relative to the mean. Deviations from

  5. Sequential Anti-Cytomegalovirus Response Monitoring May Allow Prediction of Cytomegalovirus Reactivation after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Dammann, Elke; Pabst, Brigitte; Wölk, Benno; Esser, Ruth; Yildiz, Meral; Eder, Matthias; Stadler, Michael; Bader, Peter; Martin, Hans; Jarisch, Andrea; Schneider, Gisbert; Klingebiel, Thomas; Ganser, Arnold; Weissinger, Eva M.; Koehl, Ulrike

    2012-01-01

    Background Reconstitution of cytomegalovirus-specific CD3+CD8+ T cells (CMV-CTLs) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is necessary to bring cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation under control. However, the parameters determining protective CMV-CTL reconstitution remain unclear to date. Design and Methods In a prospective tri-center study, CMV-CTL reconstitution was analyzed in the peripheral blood from 278 patients during the year following HSCT using 7 commercially available tetrameric HLA-CMV epitope complexes. All patients included could be monitored with at least CMV-specific tetramer. Results CMV-CTL reconstitution was detected in 198 patients (71%) after allogeneic HSCT. Most importantly, reconstitution with 1 CMV-CTL per µl blood between day +50 and day +75 post-HSCT discriminated between patients with and without CMV reactivation in the R+/D+ patient group, independent of the CMV-epitope recognized. In addition, CMV-CTLs expanded more daramtaically in patients experiencing only one CMV-reactivation than those without or those with multiple CMV reactivations. Monitoring using at least 2 tetramers was possible in 63% (n = 176) of the patients. The combinations of particular HLA molecules influenced the numbers of CMV-CTLs detected. The highest CMV-CTL count obtained for an individual tetramer also changed over time in 11% of these patients (n = 19) resulting in higher levels of HLA-B*0801 (IE-1) recognizing CMV-CTLs in 14 patients. Conclusions Our results indicate that 1 CMV-CTL per µl blood between day +50 to +75 marks the beginning of an immune response against CMV in the R+/D+ group. Detection of CMV-CTL expansion thereafter indicates successful resolution of the CMV reactivation. Thus, sequential monitoring of CMV-CTL reconstitution can be used to predict patients at risk for recurrent CMV reactivation. PMID:23272059

  6. Predictive modeling in Clostridium acetobutylicum fermentations employing Raman spectroscopy and multivariate data analysis for real-time culture monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zu, Theresah N. K.; Liu, Sanchao; Germane, Katherine L.; Servinsky, Matthew D.; Gerlach, Elliot S.; Mackie, David M.; Sund, Christian J.

    2016-05-01

    The coupling of optical fibers with Raman instrumentation has proven to be effective for real-time monitoring of chemical reactions and fermentations when combined with multivariate statistical data analysis. Raman spectroscopy is relatively fast, with little interference from the water peak present in fermentation media. Medical research has explored this technique for analysis of mammalian cultures for potential diagnosis of some cancers. Other organisms studied via this route include Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and some Bacillus sp., though very little work has been performed on Clostridium acetobutylicum cultures. C. acetobutylicum is a gram-positive anaerobic bacterium, which is highly sought after due to its ability to use a broad spectrum of substrates and produce useful byproducts through the well-known Acetone-Butanol-Ethanol (ABE) fermentation. In this work, real-time Raman data was acquired from C. acetobutylicum cultures grown on glucose. Samples were collected concurrently for comparative off-line product analysis. Partial-least squares (PLS) models were built both for agitated cultures and for static cultures from both datasets. Media components and metabolites monitored include glucose, butyric acid, acetic acid, and butanol. Models were cross-validated with independent datasets. Experiments with agitation were more favorable for modeling with goodness of fit (QY) values of 0.99 and goodness of prediction (Q2Y) values of 0.98. Static experiments did not model as well as agitated experiments. Raman results showed the static experiments were chaotic, especially during and shortly after manual sampling.

  7. Easy-to-use, general, and accurate multi-Kinect calibration and its application to gait monitoring for fall prediction.

    PubMed

    Staranowicz, Aaron N; Ray, Christopher; Mariottini, Gian-Luca

    2015-01-01

    Falls are the most-common causes of unintentional injury and death in older adults. Many clinics, hospitals, and health-care providers are urgently seeking accurate, low-cost, and easy-to-use technology to predict falls before they happen, e.g., by monitoring the human walking pattern (or "gait"). Despite the wide popularity of Microsoft's Kinect and the plethora of solutions for gait monitoring, no strategy has been proposed to date to allow non-expert users to calibrate the cameras, which is essential to accurately fuse the body motion observed by each camera in a single frame of reference. In this paper, we present a novel multi-Kinect calibration algorithm that has advanced features when compared to existing methods: 1) is easy to use, 2) it can be used in any generic Kinect arrangement, and 3) it provides accurate calibration. Extensive real-world experiments have been conducted to validate our algorithm and to compare its performance against other multi-Kinect calibration approaches, especially to show the improved estimate of gait parameters. Finally, a MATLAB Toolbox has been made publicly available for the entire research community.

  8. Uncertainty in Predicted Neighborhood-Scale Green Stormwater Infrastructure Performance Informed by field monitoring of Hydrologic Abstractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smalls-Mantey, L.; Jeffers, S.; Montalto, F. A.

    2013-12-01

    Human alterations to the environment provide infrastructure for housing and transportation but have drastically changed local hydrology. Excess stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces generates erosion, overburdens sewer infrastructure, and can pollute receiving bodies. Increased attention to green stormwater management controls is based on the premise that some of these issues can be mitigated by capturing or slowing the flow of stormwater. However, our ability to predict actual green infrastructure facility performance using physical or statistical methods needs additional validation, and efforts to incorporate green infrastructure controls into hydrologic models are still in their infancy stages. We use more than three years of field monitoring data to derive facility specific probability density functions characterizing the hydrologic abstractions provided by a stormwater treatment wetland, streetside bioretention facility, and a green roof. The monitoring results are normalized by impervious area treated, and incorporated into a neighborhood-scale agent model allowing probabilistic comparisons of the stormwater capture outcomes associated with alternative urban greening scenarios. Specifically, we compare the uncertainty introduced into the model by facility performance (as represented by the variability in the abstraction), to that introduced by both precipitation variability, and spatial patterns of emergence of different types of green infrastructure. The modeling results are used to update a discussion about the potential effectiveness of urban green infrastructure implementation plans.

  9. Developing LED UV fluorescence sensors for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment.

    PubMed

    Li, Wen-Tao; Jin, Jing; Li, Qiang; Wu, Chen-Fei; Lu, Hai; Zhou, Qing; Li, Ai-Min

    2016-04-15

    Online monitoring dissolved organic matter (DOM) is urgent for water treatment management. In this study, high performance size exclusion chromatography with multi-UV absorbance and multi-emission fluorescence scans were applied to spectrally characterize samples from 16 drinking water sources across Yangzi River and Huai River Watersheds. The UV absorbance indices at 254 nm and 280 nm referred to the same DOM components and concentration, and the 280 nm UV light could excite both protein-like and humic-like fluorescence. Hence a novel UV fluorescence sensor was developed out using only one UV280 light-emitting diode (LED) as light source. For all samples, enhanced coagulation was mainly effective for large molecular weight biopolymers; while anion exchange further substantially removed humic substances. During chlorination tests, UVA280 and UVA254 showed similar correlations with yields of disinfection byproducts (DBPs); the humic-like fluorescence obtained from LED sensors correlated well with both trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids yields, while the correlation between protein-like fluorescence and trihalomethanes was relatively poor. Anion exchange exhibited more reduction of DBPs yields as well as UV absorbance and fluorescence signals than enhanced coagulation. The results suggest that the LED UV fluorescence sensors are very promising for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment.

  10. Land Use Regression Models for Ultrafine Particles and Black Carbon Based on Short-Term Monitoring Predict Past Spatial Variation.

    PubMed

    Montagne, Denise R; Hoek, Gerard; Klompmaker, Jochem O; Wang, Meng; Meliefste, Kees; Brunekreef, Bert

    2015-07-21

    Health effects of long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) have not been investigated in epidemiological studies because of the lack of spatially resolved UFP exposure data. Short-term monitoring campaigns used to develop land use regression (LUR) models for UFP typically had moderate performance. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate spatial and spatiotemporal LUR models for UFP and Black Carbon (BC), including their ability to predict past spatial contrasts. We measured 30 min at each of 81 sites in Amsterdam and 80 in Rotterdam, The Netherlands in three different seasons. Models were developed using traffic, land use, reference site measurements, routinely measured pollutants and weather data. The percentage explained variation (R(2)) was 0.35-0.40 for BC and 0.33-0.42 for UFP spatial models. Traffic variables were present in every model. The coefficients for the spatial predictors were similar in spatial and spatiotemporal models. The BC LUR model explained 61% of the spatial variation in a previous campaign with longer sampling duration, better than the model R(2). The UFP LUR model explained 36% of UFP spatial variation measured 10 years earlier, similar to the model R(2). Short-term monitoring campaigns may be an efficient tool to develop LUR models.

  11. Daily ambient NO2 concentration predictions using satellite ozone monitoring instrument NO2 data and land use regression.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hyung Joo; Koutrakis, Petros

    2014-02-18

    Although ground measurements have contributed to revealing the association between ambient air pollution and health effects in epidemiological studies, exposure measurement errors are likely to be caused because of the sparse spatial distribution of ground monitors. In this study, we estimate daily ground NO2 concentrations in the New England region, U.S., for the period 2005-2010 using satellite remote sensing data in combination with land use regression. To estimate ground-level NO2 concentrations, we constructed a mixed effects model by taking advantage of spatial and temporal variability in satellite Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) tropospheric column NO2 densities. Using fine-scale land use parameters, we derived NO2 concentrations at point locations, which can be further used for subject-specific exposure estimates in epidemiological studies. A mixed effects model showed a reasonably high predictive power for daily NO2 concentrations (cross-validation R(2) = 0.79). We observed that the model performed similarly in each season, year, and state. The spatial patterns of model estimates reflected emission source areas (such as high populated/traffic areas) in the study region and revealed the seasonal characteristics of NO2. This study suggests that a combination of satellite remote sensing and land use regression can be useful for both spatially and temporally resolved exposure assessments of NO2.

  12. Satellite Irrigation Monitoring and Management Support in California with the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melton, F. S.; Johnson, L.; Lund, C.; Michaelis, A.; Pierce, L.; Guzman, A.; Hiatt, S.; Purdy, A. J.; Lee, C.; Rosevelt, C.; Fletcher, N.; Votava, P.; Milesi, C.; Hashimoto, H.; Wang, W.; Sheffner, E. J.; Nemani, R.

    2011-12-01

    Satellite data can be used to map crop evapotranspiration over large areas and make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate, but requires the development of new tools and computing frameworks to support operational use in irrigation scheduling and water management. We present findings from the development and deployment of a prototype system for irrigation scheduling and management support. The system utilizes the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to integrate satellite observations and meteorological observations to map basal crop coefficient (Kcb) and evapotranspiration (ETcb) values for multiple crop types in the Central Valley of California at spatial resolutions that are useful for irrigation management at the field level (30m). Integration of data from the NOAA NWS Forecasted Reference Evapotranspiration (FRET) system also allows forecasting of irrigation demand with lead times of up to one week, supporting both irrigation scheduling and water delivery planning. Information is distributed to agricultural producers and water managers via a web-based irrigation management decision support system, web services, and hand held devices. We also present comparisons of estimates of ETcb from the prototype system against estimates from other methods, including surface renewal stations, energy balance models, and water balance models driven with data from wireless sensor networks deployed in operational agricultural fields across California.

  13. Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lin, Bing; Chambers, Lin H.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Minnis, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

  14. Momentary affect predicts bodily movement in daily life: an ambulatory monitoring study.

    PubMed

    Schwerdtfeger, Andreas; Eberhardt, Ragna; Chmitorz, Andrea; Schaller, Eva

    2010-10-01

    There is converging evidence that physical activity influences affective states. It has been found that aerobic exercise programs can significantly diminish negative affect. Moreover, among healthy individuals, moderate levels of physical activity seem to increase energetic arousal and positive affect. However, the predictive utility of affective states for bodily movement has rarely been investigated. In this study, we examined whether momentarily assessed affect is associated with bodily movement in everyday life. Using a previously published data set (Schwerdtfeger, Eberhardt, & Chmitorz, 2008), we reanalyzed 12-hr ecological momentary assessment (EMA) data from 124 healthy volunteers. Electronic momentary positive-activated affect (EMA-PAA) and negative affect (EMA-NA) were assessed via handheld computers, and bodily movement was recorded via accelerosensors. Generalized linear mixed models were calculated. Results indicated that EMAPAA increases were accompanied by bodily movement increases of varying intensity. EMA-NA was also positively associated with increases in certain kinds of bodily movement. In light of previous research, this finding suggests that affect and bodily movement may have circular effects on each other.

  15. Use of Continuous Monitors and Autosamplers to Predict Unmeasured Water-Quality Constituents in Tributaries of the Tualatin River, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, Chauncey W.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2010-01-01

    Management of water quality in streams of the United States is becoming increasingly complex as regulators seek to control aquatic pollution and ecological problems through Total Maximum Daily Load programs that target reductions in the concentrations of certain constituents. Sediment, nutrients, and bacteria, for example, are constituents that regulators target for reduction nationally and in the Tualatin River basin, Oregon. These constituents require laboratory analysis of discrete samples for definitive determinations of concentrations in streams. Recent technological advances in the nearly continuous, in situ monitoring of related water-quality parameters has fostered the use of these parameters as surrogates for the labor intensive, laboratory-analyzed constituents. Although these correlative techniques have been successful in large rivers, it was unclear whether they could be applied successfully in tributaries of the Tualatin River, primarily because these streams tend to be small, have rapid hydrologic response to rainfall and high streamflow variability, and may contain unique sources of sediment, nutrients, and bacteria. This report evaluates the feasibility of developing correlative regression models for predicting dependent variables (concentrations of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and Escherichia coli bacteria) in two Tualatin River basin streams: one draining highly urbanized land (Fanno Creek near Durham, Oregon) and one draining rural agricultural land (Dairy Creek at Highway 8 near Hillsboro, Oregon), during 2002-04. An important difference between these two streams is their response to storm runoff; Fanno Creek has a relatively rapid response due to extensive upstream impervious areas and Dairy Creek has a relatively slow response because of the large amount of undeveloped upstream land. Four other stream sites also were evaluated, but in less detail. Potential explanatory variables included continuously monitored streamflow

  16. Radiotracer applications in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Airey, P.L.; Charlton, J.S.

    1994-12-31

    Radioisotope tracers have been applied in Australia since the early 1950`s to a wide range of industrial and environmental problems. A number of key projects are described. A development of a commercial service through the Tracerco Australasia joint venture is outlined. The challenges and opportunities facing tracer technology in the modem industrial era are examined.

  17. Agricultural Education in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farquhar, R. N.

    This document is an English-language abstract (approximately 1,500 words) of a comprehensive survey of education and training for agriculture in Australia. The present facilities are described, and then set against estimates of present and future needs. Constructive proposals are made as to how these needs can best be met by agricultural…

  18. Australia's Regional Youth Exodus.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gabriel, M.

    2002-01-01

    Examines media coverage of youth outmigration from Tasmania in the context of Australia's regional crisis. Focuses on how young people are constructed by others and positioned in others' visions of their rural home towns. Discusses two recurring narratives: strategies to keep youth at home, and preoccupation with the "best and brightest"…

  19. Australia: Education and Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Devlin, Edward

    2004-01-01

    This new addition to the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers (AACRAO) library of international publications is a guide for United States admissions officers to the structure and content of the education system of Australia together with a formal set of placement recommendations based upon the author's research.…

  20. Australia: a continuing genocide?

    PubMed

    Short, Damien

    2010-01-01

    Debates about genocide in Australia have for the most part focussed on past frontier killings and child removal practices. This article, however, focuses on contemporary culturally destructive policies, and the colonial structures that produce them, through the analytical lens of the concept of genocide. The article begins with a discussion of the meaning of cultural genocide, locating the idea firmly in Lemkin's work before moving on to engage with the debates around Lemkin's distinction between genocide and cultural 'diffusion.' In contrast to those scholars who prefer the word 'ethnocide,' the underlying conceptual contention is that the term 'cultural genocide' simply describes a key method of genocide and should be viewed, without the need for qualification, as genocide. While direct physical killing and genocidal child removal practices may have ceased in Australia, some indigenous activists persuasively contend that genocide is a continuing process in an Australia that has failed to decolonise. Concurring with these views the article argues that the contemporary expression of continuing genocidal relations in Australia can be seen principally, and perversely, in the colonial state's official reconciliation process, native title land rights regime and the recent interventionist 'solutions' to indigenous 'problems' in the Northern Territory.

  1. Agricultural Education in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farquhar, R. N.

    This document is an English-language abstract (approximately 1,500 words) of a comprehensive survey of education and training for agriculture in Australia. The present facilities are described, and then set against estimates of present and future needs. Constructive proposals are made as to how these needs can best be met by agricultural…

  2. Australia's Regional Youth Exodus.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gabriel, M.

    2002-01-01

    Examines media coverage of youth outmigration from Tasmania in the context of Australia's regional crisis. Focuses on how young people are constructed by others and positioned in others' visions of their rural home towns. Discusses two recurring narratives: strategies to keep youth at home, and preoccupation with the "best and brightest"…

  3. Media Matters in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daniels, Kell

    1998-01-01

    Describes how a teacher helped transform a K-12 Christian school near Sydney, Australia, from a book-bound media studies program into a hands-on learning experience for students. Various projects allow students to operate advanced equipment, evaluate their own and their peers' work, present research results to the class, and produce live media…

  4. Australia's nuclear graveyard

    SciTech Connect

    Milliken, R.

    1987-04-01

    Britain and Australia have become locked in a battle of wills and wits over a nuclear legacy that is now more than 30 years old. At stake is the issue of who will pay to clean up a stretch of the central Australian outback where at least 23 kilograms of plutonium are buried in nuclear graveyards or scattered in fine particles on the ground. The plutonium was left there after a series of British nuclear weapons tests in the 1950s and 1960s. The cost of cleaning it up today, and rendering the ground safe the the Aborigines who claim it as their tribal homeland, has been estimated at up to $158 million. Australia's minister for resources, Senator Gareth Evans, went to London in October 1986 to try to involve the British in the cleanup. But Britain is still taking the stand that it had discharged any obligations on this score long ago. This question is at the heart of controversy that began mounting in the late 1970s over the British nuclear tests. It was then that Aborigines and test veterans from Britain and Australia started alleging that they had been exposed to unduly high doses of radiation. Clearly, the nuclear tests, which began as a political exercise between Britain and Australia more than 30 years ago, seem destined to remain the source of much legal, diplomatic, and financial fallout between the two countries for a long time to come.

  5. Jack Hills, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2009-06-02

    This image acquired by NASA Terra spacecraft, shows the oldest material on Earth which has yet been dated by man is a zircon mineral of 4.4 billion years old from a sedimentary gneiss in the Jack Hills of the Narre Gneiss Terrane of Australia.

  6. Career Development in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCowan, Colin; Mountain, Elizabeth

    Australia has a federal system, comprising the national Commonwealth government and eight state and territory governments. At the Commonwealth level, the ministries of Education, Training and Youth Affairs, and Employment, Workplace Relations and Small Business have primary roles in the career information and services field. Education and training…

  7. Classification in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKinlay, John

    Despite some inroads by the Library of Congress Classification and short-lived experimentation with Universal Decimal Classification and Bliss Classification, Dewey Decimal Classification, with its ability in recent editions to be hospitable to local needs, remains the most widely used classification system in Australia. Although supplemented at…

  8. Australia: Education and Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Devlin, Edward

    2004-01-01

    This new addition to the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers (AACRAO) library of international publications is a guide for United States admissions officers to the structure and content of the education system of Australia together with a formal set of placement recommendations based upon the author's research.…

  9. Earth - Eastern Australia Coast

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2001-02-28

    This false color image of the Eastern Coast of Australia was obtained by NASA’s Galileo spacecraft at about 3:00 p.m. PST, Dec. 8, 1990, at a range of more than 35,000 miles. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00121

  10. Teaching about Australia. ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prior, Warren R.

    Many reasons can be offered for teaching about Australia. The field of Australian studies offers many opportunities for U.S. teachers and students to critically analyze aspects of their own culture, for there are many experiences in the history of Australia that parallel the U.S. experience. Australia and the United States have strong ongoing…

  11. Australia: a full house.

    PubMed

    Short, R

    1994-01-01

    Australia had a population of 17.6 million in 1991. In 1992, Australia's population grew at the rate of 1.06%, 0.8% due to natural increase and 0.26% from immigration. The recent Australian Bureau of Statistics Report estimates that it will grow to 18.9 million by the end of the century and 23.1 million by 2025, assuming fertility remains at current levels and net migration stabilizes at 70,000 per annum from the year 2000. The World Bank estimates that Australia's population will stabilize at 25 million some time in the future. Since Australia's politicians and economists fail to understand that the country already has a large enough population, no national population policy has been declared. The Department of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs, responsible for all population issues, gives no thought to the long-term environmental consequences of the rapidly growing population and determines the annual migrant intake simply on the basis of the nation's economic needs, demands from new immigrants for admission of their next of kin, and humanitarian considerations with regard to refugees. Population growth in Australia needs to be checked as soon as possible. Reducing the annual migrant intake to below 50,000, Australia could achieve a stable population of approximately 23 million by 2040; the annual intake of 150,000 immigrants will grow the population to 37 million. The total fertility rate (TFR) has been below replacement level since 1976, but the population's skewed age distribution will cause it to continue to grow through natural increase at the current rate of approximately 0.8% per year for some time to come. Improving educational opportunities for women and ensuring that all have ready access to modern contraception could help produce a further decline in TFR. Moreover, education about contraception must be made a part of every school curriculum. Steps taken now may avert any future flood of millions of ecological refugees from Southeast Asia, particularly

  12. Lake Eyre, Simpson Desert, South Australia, Australia

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1990-12-10

    STS035-501-007 (2-10 Dec. 1990) --- The STS-35 crewmembers aboard the Earth-orbiting Space Shuttle Columbia photographed this view of the Arid Simpson Desert of Australia with a handheld Rolleiflex camera. Lake Eyre is normally dry; however, the STS-35 crew was able to recognize water in the lowest parts of the lake (dark pink area) and possibly in Lake Blanche east of Lake Eyre. Lake Frome lies in the distance separated from Lake Torrens (top right) by dark hills of Flinders Range. The Finke River (bottom left to middle) flows into the Eyre basin from the northwest. Although it is the largest river entering the basin, Finke's floods seldom reach Lake Eyre. The dark brown patch in the foreground is an area of ancient, brown lateritic soils partly covered by dunes.

  13. Comparison of predicted pesticide concentrations in groundwater from SCI-GROW and PRZM-GW models with historical monitoring data.

    PubMed

    Estes, Tammara L; Pai, Naresh; Winchell, Michael F

    2016-06-01

    A key factor in the human health risk assessment process for the registration of pesticides by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is an estimate of pesticide concentrations in groundwater used for drinking water. From 1997 to 2011, these estimates were obtained from the EPA empirical model SCI-GROW. Since 2012, these estimates have been obtained from the EPA deterministic model PRZM-GW, which has resulted in a significant increase in estimated groundwater concentrations for many pesticides. Historical groundwater monitoring data from the National Ambient Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program (1991-2014) were compared with predicted groundwater concentrations from both SCI-GROW (v.2.3) and PRZM-GW (v.1.07) for 66 different pesticides of varying environmental fate properties. The pesticide environmental fate parameters associated with over- and underprediction of groundwater concentrations by the two models were evaluated. In general, SCI-GROW2.3 predicted groundwater concentrations were close to maximum historically observed groundwater concentrations. However, for pesticides with soil organic carbon content values below 1000 L kg(-1) and no simulated hydrolysis, PRZM-GW overpredicted, often by greater than 100 ppb. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

  14. MRI monitoring of intratumoral drug delivery and prediction of the therapeutic effect with a multifunctional thermosensitive liposome.

    PubMed

    Tagami, Tatsuaki; Foltz, Warren D; Ernsting, Mark J; Lee, Carol M; Tannock, Ian F; May, Jonathan P; Li, Shyh-Dar

    2011-09-01

    Non-invasive in vivo imaging of drug distribution enables real-time monitoring and prediction of therapeutic responses to treatment. We have developed a thermosensitive liposomal formulation (HaT: Hyperthermia-activated-cytoToxic) consisting of DPPC and Brij78, a formulation that enhanced drug delivery compared to the lyso-lipid temperature sensitive liposomes (LTSL). Here we report the development of a multifunctional HaT liposome co-encapsulating Gd-DTPA (an MRI probe) and doxorubicin (DOX), which simultaneously releases and reports on drug delivery in a locally heated tumor. The temperature-dependent release profiles of DOX from HaT were closely related to the change in the MR T(1) relaxation time, in which DOX was 100% released at 40-42 °C in 3 min, accompanied by a 60% reduction in T(1). By T(1) relaxometry analysis, no Gd-DTPA leakage was detected in 30 min at 30-37 °C. In the in vivo study, DOX uptake in the tumor was quantitatively correlated with T(1) response (R(2) = 0.98) and the patterns of the T(1) image and the intratumoral DOX uptake were matched, in which both signals were predominantly detected in the highly perfused tumor periphery. Finally, the extent of T(1) relaxation enhancement in the heated tumor successfully predicted the antitumor efficacy in a standard pharmacological response model (R(2) = 0.98). Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. [Predictive value of uterine artery velocity waveforms in monitoring of pregnancies with high obstetrical risk antiphospholipid syndrome: the Rouen experience].

    PubMed

    Seror, J; Verspyck, E; Borg, J-Y; Berkane, N; Marpeau, L

    2010-01-01

    Anti-phospholipid syndrome (APLS) and obstetrical complications have been associated for years. The purpose of this study was to define a high obstetrical risk subpopulation of APLS and search predictive criteria of complications likely to improve monitoring of pregnancy. We conducted a retrospective study at the CHU of Rouen between 1998 and January 2008. Pregnancies were included for patients with APLS according to the criteria of Sydney without repeated miscarriages item. The study involved 20 pregnancies from eight patients. Fourteen pregnancies gave birth to living children or 70 %, 28.6 % were complicated with pre-eclampsia, 50 % of haemolysis elevated liver enzymes low platelets (HELLP) syndrome associated with a 28.6 % stunting and 42 % of premature birth. Patients received treatment involving aspirin and heparin. The obstetrical prognosis was significantly poorer in the subgroup with APLS notch bilateral persistent middle of the term of birth of 35.5 versus 28 weeks of gestation, and median birth weight of 950 g versus 2780 g (p<0.05). Patients were selected according to the more specific criteria of APLS (thrombosis and fetal loss) and a history of severe obstetrical complications. In some series, these complications play a major role; in others, they are unsignificant. Rate, in this study, is high (47 %) and the presence of bilateral notch seems to be an excellent predictive marker of vascular complications in this population. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  16. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  17. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  18. Clinical evaluation of an automated artificial pancreas using zone-model predictive control and health monitoring system.

    PubMed

    Harvey, Rebecca A; Dassau, Eyal; Bevier, Wendy C; Seborg, Dale E; Jovanovič, Lois; Doyle, Francis J; Zisser, Howard C

    2014-06-01

    This study was performed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a fully automated artificial pancreas using zone-model predictive control (zone-MPC) with the health monitoring system (HMS) during unannounced meals and overnight and exercise periods. A fully automated closed-loop artificial pancreas was evaluated in 12 subjects (eight women, four men) with type 1 diabetes (mean±SD age, 49.4±10.4 years; diabetes duration, 32.7±16.0 years; glycosylated hemoglobin, 7.3±1.2%). The zone-MPC controller used an a priori model that was initialized using the subject's total daily insulin. The controller was designed to keep glucose levels between 80 and 140 mg/dL. A hypoglycemia prediction algorithm, a module of the HMS, was used in conjunction with the zone controller to alert the user to consume carbohydrates if the glucose level was predicted to fall below 70 mg/dL in the next 15 min. The average time spent in the 70-180 mg/dL range, measured by the YSI glucose and lactate analyzer (Yellow Springs Instruments, Yellow Springs, OH), was 80% for the entire session, 92% overnight from 12 a.m. to 7 a.m., and 69% and 61% for the 5-h period after dinner and breakfast, respectively. The time spent < 60 mg/dL for the entire session by YSI was 0%, with no safety events. The HMS sent appropriate warnings to prevent hypoglycemia via short and multimedia message services, at an average of 3.8 treatments per subject. The combination of the zone-MPC controller and the HMS hypoglycemia prevention algorithm was able to safely regulate glucose in a tight range with no adverse events despite the challenges of unannounced meals and moderate exercise.

  19. A drought prediction and monitoring system to reduce drought vulnerability and improve water management in Washington State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, S.; Steinemann, A.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2009-12-01

    Water resources in Washington State are mostly derived from spring and summer melting of mountain snowpacks that accumulate in the previous winter. As the climate warms, the natural reservoir that is provided by mountain snowpacks is likely to decline, and recent studies have shown that the state’s water resources are particularly vulnerable to climate variability and climate change for this reason. Better use of weather and climate forecasts in the decision-making processes is one strategy for adapting to these ongoing changes in the physical climate. Major strides have been made toward improving climate forecasts, particularly in the Pacific Northwest where the ENSO signal is strong. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) provides seasonal climate outlooks over the United States. We examine the potential of these forecasts to provide useful information for Washington State under drought conditions by using CPC forecasts to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model (LSM) based on a Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (DMPS) developed at the University of Washington. This system uses the VIC model to generate the initial hydrologic state, and the CPC seasonal climate ensembles to provide hydrologic assessments of drought conditions up to a lead -time of 6 months. The hydrologic initial state is generated by forcing the model with observed precipitation and temperature forcings. The system uses the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Soil Moisture Percentile (SMP) based on LSM derived soil moisture (SM), runoff over the state as indices for drought characterization. We describe the implementation of DMPS and its evaluation in terms of drought prediction skill over the period 1995-2007 for which CPC forecast archives are available.

  20. Monitoring Process Water Quality Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy and Partial Least Squares Regression with Prediction Uncertainty Estimation.

    PubMed

    Skou, Peter B; Berg, Thilo A; Aunsbjerg, Stina D; Thaysen, Dorrit; Rasmussen, Morten A; van den Berg, Frans

    2017-03-01

    Reuse of process water in dairy ingredient production-and food processing in general-opens the possibility for sustainable water regimes. Membrane filtration processes are an attractive source of process water recovery since the technology is already utilized in the dairy industry and its use is expected to grow considerably. At Arla Foods Ingredients (AFI), permeate from a reverse osmosis polisher filtration unit is sought to be reused as process water, replacing the intake of potable water. However, as for all dairy and food producers, the process water quality must be monitored continuously to ensure food safety. In the present investigation we found urea to be the main organic compound, which potentially could represent a microbiological risk. Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in combination with multivariate modeling has a long-standing reputation as a real-time measurement technology in quality assurance. Urea was quantified Using NIRS and partial least squares regression (PLS) in the concentration range 50-200 ppm (RMSEP = 12 ppm, R(2 )= 0.88) in laboratory settings with potential for on-line application. A drawback of using NIRS together with PLS is that uncertainty estimates are seldom reported but essential to establishing real-time risk assessment. In a multivariate regression setting, sample-specific prediction errors are needed, which complicates the uncertainty estimation. We give a straightforward strategy for implementing an already developed, but seldom used, method for estimating sample-specific prediction uncertainty. We also suggest an improvement. Comparing independent reference analyses with the sample-specific prediction error estimates showed that the method worked on industrial samples when the model was appropriate and unbiased, and was simple to implement.

  1. Optimization of Early Response Monitoring and Prediction of Cancer Antiangiogenesis Therapy via Noninvasive PET Molecular Imaging Strategies of Multifactorial Bioparameters.

    PubMed

    Bao, Xiao; Wang, Ming-Wei; Luo, Jian-Min; Wang, Si-Yang; Zhang, Yong-Ping; Zhang, Ying-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Antiangiogenesis therapy (AAT) has provided substantial benefits regarding improved outcomes and survival for suitable patients in clinical settings. Therefore, the early definition of therapeutic effects is urgently needed to guide cancer AAT. We aimed to optimize the early response monitoring and prediction of AAT efficacy, as indicated by the multi-targeted anti-angiogenic drug sunitinib in U87MG tumors, using noninvasive positron emission computed tomography (PET) molecular imaging strategies of multifactorial bioparameters. Methods: U87MG tumor mice were treated via intragastric injections of sunitinib (80 mg/kg) or vehicle for 7 consecutive days. Longitudinal MicroPET/CT scans with (18)F-FDG, (18)F-FMISO, (18)F-ML-10 and (18)F-Alfatide II were acquired to quantitatively measure metabolism, hypoxia, apoptosis and angiogenesis on days 0, 1, 3, 7 and 13 following therapy initiation. Tumor tissues from a dedicated group of mice were collected for immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of key biomarkers (Glut-1, CA-IX, TUNEL, ανβ3 and CD31) at the time points of PET imaging. The tumor sizes and mouse weights were measured throughout the study. The tumor uptake (ID%/gmax), the ratios of the tumor/muscle (T/M) for each probe, and the tumor growth ratios (TGR) were calculated and used for statistical analyses of the differences and correlations. Results: Sunitinib successfully inhibited U87MG tumor growth with significant differences in the tumor size from day 9 after sunitinib treatment compared with the control group (P < 0.01). The uptakes of (18)F-FMISO (reduced hypoxia), (18)F-ML-10 (increased apoptosis) and (18)F-Alfatide II (decreased angiogenesis) in the tumor lesions significantly changed during the early stage (days 1 to 3) of sunitinib treatment; however, the uptake of (18)F-FDG (increased glucose metabolism) was significantly different during the late stage. The PET imaging data of each probe were all confirmed via ex vivo IHC of the relevant

  2. Acoustic signal emission monitoring as a novel method to predict steam pops during radiofrequency ablation: preliminary observations.

    PubMed

    Chik, William W B; Kosobrodov, Roman; Bhaskaran, Abhishek; Barry, Michael Anthony Tony; Nguyen, Doan Trang; Pouliopoulos, Jim; Byth, Karen; Sivagangabalan, Gopal; Thomas, Stuart P; Ross, David L; McEwan, Alistair; Kovoor, Pramesh; Thiagalingam, Aravinda

    2015-04-01

    predictably occur before imminent steam popping during RF ablations. Such acoustic emissions can be carefully monitored during an ablation and may be useful to prevent serious complications during RF delivery. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. IMOS, an Integrated Marine Observing System for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seuront, L.; Leterme, S. C.

    2009-04-01

    IMOS is a distributed set of equipment and data-information services which collectively contribute to meeting the needs of marine climate research in Australia. The observing system provides data in the open oceans around Australia out to a few thousand kilometres as well as the coastal oceans through 11 facilities (Argo Australia, Ships of Opportunity, Southern Ocean Time Series, Australian National Facility for Ocean Gliders, Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Facility, Australian National Mooring Network, Australian Coastal Ocean Radar Network, Australian Acoustic Tagging and Monitoring System, Facility for Automated Intelligent Monitoring of Marine Systems, eMarine Information Infrastructure and Satellite Remote Sensing) and 5 nodes (Blue Water, Great Barrier Reef Ocean Observing System, New South Wales IMOS, Southern Australia IMOS and Western Australia IMOS).The data are made available to researchers through the electronic Marine Information Infrastructure (eMII). Specifically, IMOS also incorporates a National Reference Station infrastructure (NRS) based on 9 stations in the coastal ocean around Australia. The NRS is (i) multi-disciplinary and integrated with the collection of over 60 marine parameters, (ii) modular, which allows for deployment with or without a surface signature, and (iii) versatilely based on regionally scaled logistics. After introducing the philosophy of IMOS and its implementation, the first results obtained through a suite of facilities will be illustrated across different nodes.

  4. Methods Developed by the Tools for Engine Diagnostics Task to Monitor and Predict Rotor Damage in Real Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baaklini, George Y.; Smith, Kevin; Raulerson, David; Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.; Sawicki, Jerzy T.; Brasche, Lisa

    2003-01-01

    Tools for Engine Diagnostics is a major task in the Propulsion System Health Management area of the Single Aircraft Accident Prevention project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program. The major goal of the Aviation Safety Program is to reduce fatal aircraft accidents by 80 percent within 10 years and by 90 percent within 25 years. The goal of the Propulsion System Health Management area is to eliminate propulsion system malfunctions as a primary or contributing factor to the cause of aircraft accidents. The purpose of Tools for Engine Diagnostics, a 2-yr-old task, is to establish and improve tools for engine diagnostics and prognostics that measure the deformation and damage of rotating engine components at the ground level and that perform intermittent or continuous monitoring on the engine wing. In this work, nondestructive-evaluation- (NDE-) based technology is combined with model-dependent disk spin experimental simulation systems, like finite element modeling (FEM) and modal norms, to monitor and predict rotor damage in real time. Fracture mechanics time-dependent fatigue crack growth and damage-mechanics-based life estimation are being developed, and their potential use investigated. In addition, wireless eddy current and advanced acoustics are being developed for on-wing and just-in-time NDE engine inspection to provide deeper access and higher sensitivity to extend on-wing capabilities and improve inspection readiness. In the long run, these methods could establish a base for prognostic sensing while an engine is running, without any overt actions, like inspections. This damage-detection strategy includes experimentally acquired vibration-, eddy-current- and capacitance-based displacement measurements and analytically computed FEM-, modal norms-, and conventional rotordynamics-based models of well-defined damages and critical mass imbalances in rotating disks and rotors.

  5. Neurodegeneration severity can be predicted from early microglia alterations monitored in vivo in a mouse model of chronic glaucoma

    PubMed Central

    Bosco, Alejandra; Romero, Cesar O.; Breen, Kevin T.; Chagovetz, Alexis A.; Steele, Michael R.; Ambati, Balamurali K.; Vetter, Monica L.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Microglia serve key homeostatic roles, and respond to neuronal perturbation and decline with a high spatiotemporal resolution. The course of all chronic CNS pathologies is thus paralleled by local microgliosis and microglia activation, which begin at early stages of the disease. However, the possibility of using live monitoring of microglia during early disease progression to predict the severity of neurodegeneration has not been explored. Because the retina allows live tracking of fluorescent microglia in their intact niche, here we investigated their early changes in relation to later optic nerve neurodegeneration. To achieve this, we used the DBA/2J mouse model of inherited glaucoma, which develops progressive retinal ganglion cell degeneration of variable severity during aging, and represents a useful model to study pathogenic mechanisms of retinal ganglion cell decline that are similar to those in human glaucoma. We imaged CX3CR1+/GFP microglial cells in vivo at ages ranging from 1 to 5 months by confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (cSLO) and quantified cell density and morphological activation. We detected early microgliosis at the optic nerve head (ONH), where axonopathy first manifests, and could track attenuation of this microgliosis induced by minocycline. We also observed heterogeneous and dynamic patterns of early microglia activation in the retina. When the same animals were aged and analyzed for the severity of optic nerve pathology at 10 months of age, we found a strong correlation with the levels of ONH microgliosis at 3 to 4 months. Our findings indicate that live imaging and monitoring the time course and levels of early retinal microgliosis and microglia activation in glaucoma could serve as indicators of future neurodegeneration severity. PMID:25755083

  6. Monitoring MRD with flow cytometry: an effective method to predict relapse for ALL patients after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiao-Su; Liu, Yan-Rong; Zhu, Hong-Hu; Xu, Lan-Ping; Liu, Dai-Hong; Liu, Kai-Yan; Huang, Xiao-Jun

    2012-02-01

    This study evaluated the prognostic value of minimal residual disease (MRD) monitoring by four-color flow cytometry (FCM) in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). MRD was examined with four-color FCM at different time points in 139 patients (including pediatric and adult patients) with ALL after allo-HSCT. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RQ-PCR) was applied to evaluate the MRD of Philadelphia chromosome-positive ALL (Ph+ ALL) patients. Patients who were FCM-positive (FCM+) after transplantation had a lower event-free survival (EFS) of 0.54 and a higher cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) of 0.54 compared to an EFS of 0.80 and a CIR of 0.08 in FCM-negative (FCM-) patients (EFS, p < 0.001; CIR, p < 0.001). Similar results were obtained in high-risk patients and Ph+ ALL patients. Moreover, a FCM+ status after the second month post-HSCT (defined as MRD positive) proved to be a predictor of leukemia relapse. Multivariate analysis for EFS, OS and CIR showed that MRD status after transplantation was an independent prognostic factor (p < 0.001, p = 0.013, and p < 0.001, respectively). A good correlation was found between the MRD results of FCM and RQ-PCR (n = 126 pairs, Spearman r = 0.8139, p < 0.001). MRD monitoring by four-color FCM post-transplantation is an important tool for relapse prediction in ALL patients. Prompt and appropriate pre-emptive anti-leukemia treatment could be considered based on the status of MRD after HSCT.

  7. Serial Monitoring of Circulating Tumor Cells Predicts Outcome of Induction Biochemotherapy plus Maintenance Biotherapy for Metastatic Melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Koyanagi, Kazuo; O’Day, Steven J.; Boasberg, Peter; Atkins, Michael B.; Wang, He-Jing; Gonzalez, Rene; Lewis, Karl; Thompson, John A.; Anderson, Clay M.; Lutzky, Jose; Amatruda, Thomas T.; Hersh, Evan; Richards, Jon; Weber, Jeffrey S.; Hoon, Dave S. B.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Molecular biomarkers in blood are promising for assessment of tumor progression and treatment response. We hypothesized that serial monitoring of circulating tumor cells (CTC) using multimarker quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR (qRT) assays could be a surrogate predictor of outcome for melanoma patients enrolled in a multicenter phase II clinical trial of biochemotherapy (BCT) combined with maintenance biotherapy (mBT). Experimental Design Blood specimens were collected from 87 patients before and during induction BCT and mBT for stage IV melanoma. Expression of five melanoma-associated CTC biomarkers (MART-1, GalNAc-T, PAX-3, MAGE-A3, and Mitf) was assessed by qRT and correlated with treatment response and disease outcome. Results The number of positive CTC biomarkers decreased overall during induction BCT (P<0.0001). CTC biomarker detection after two cycles of BCT was correlated with treatment response (P=0.005) and overall survival (OS) (P=0.001): an increase in the number of CTC biomarkers was associated with poor response (P=0.006) and OS (P<0.0001). Multivariate analyses using a Cox proportional-hazards model identified the change in CTC biomarkers after two cycles of BCT as an independent prognostic factor for disease progression (risk ratio, 12.6; 95% CI, 4.78 to 33.4; P<0.0001) and OS (risk ratio, 6.11; 95% CI, 2.37 to 15.7; P=0.0005). Conclusion Serial monitoring of CTC during induction BCT may be useful for predicting the therapeutic efficacy and disease outcome in patients receiving BCT and mBT for stage IV melanoma. PMID:20371696

  8. Geothermal development in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burns, K. L.; Creelman, R. A.; Buckingham, N. W.; Harrington, H. J.

    In Australia, natural hot springs and hot artesian bores have been developed for recreational and therapeutic purposes. A district heating system at Portland, in the Otway Basin of western Victoria, has provided uninterrupted service for 12 Sears without significant problems, is servicing a building area of 18 990 sq m, and has prospects of expansion to manufacturing uses. A geothermal well has provided hot water for paper manufacture at Traralgon, in the Gippsland Basin of eastern Victoria. Power production from hot water aquifers was tested at Mulka in South Australia, and is undergoing a four-year production trial at Birdsville in Queensland. An important Hot Dry Rock resource has been confirmed in the Cooper Basin. It has been proposed to build an HDR experimental facility to test power production from deep conductive resources in the Sydney Basin near Muswellbrook.

  9. Geothermal development in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.L.; Creelman, R.A.; Buckingham, N.W.; Harrington, H.J. |

    1995-03-01

    In Australia, natural hot springs and hot artesian bores have been developed for recreational and therapeutic purposes. A district heating system at Portland, in the Otway Basin of western Victoria, has provided uninterrupted service for 12 Sears without significant problems, is servicing a building area of 18 990 m{sup 2}, and has prospects of expansion to manufacturing uses. A geothermal well has provided hot water for paper manufacture at Traralgon, in the Gippsland Basin of eastern Victoria. Power production from hot water aquifers was tested at Mulka in South Australia, and is undergoing a four-year production trial at Birdsville in Queensland. An important Hot Dry Rock resource has been confirmed in the Cooper Basin. It has been proposed to build an HDR experimental facility to test power production from deep conductive resources in the Sydney Basin near Muswellbrook.

  10. Population options for Australia.

    PubMed

    Ruddock, P

    1999-01-01

    In an address to the Australian Population Association Biennial Conference during October 1998, the Immigration and Multicultural Affairs Minister Philip Ruddock argued that neither the zero net overseas migration policy nor the massive boost in immigration are in the national interest of Australia. Environmental groups generally view that Australia should adopt a policy of zero net overseas migration. On the other hand, business and industry bodies consider that a substantial increase in the migration intake is needed in order to increase economic growth and to reduce the impact of an aging population. Moreover, some are concerned about population targets reaching up to 50 million in 50 years time. Thus, management of immigration policy is a difficult balancing act between competing objectives. The Minister concluded that their immigration program must operate on a totally global and nondiscriminatory basis regarding matters such as race, religion, color, and ethnic origin.

  11. Tissue banking in australia.

    PubMed

    Ireland, Lynette; McKelvie, Helen

    2003-01-01

    The legal structure for the regulation of tissue banking has existed for many years. In Australia, the donation of human tissue is regulated by legislation in each of the eight States and Territories. These substantially uniform Acts were passed in the late 1970's and early 1980's, based on model legislation and underpinned by the concept of consensual giving. However, it was not until the early 1990's that tissue banking came under the notice of regulatory authorities. Since then the Australian Government has moved quickly to oversee the tissue banking sector in Australia. Banked human tissue has been deemed to be a therapeutic good under the Therapeutic Goods Act 1989, and tissue banks are required to be licensed by the Therapeutic Goods Administration and are audited for compliance with the Code of Good Manufacturing Practice- Human Blood and Tissues. In addition, tissue banks must comply with a myriad of other standards, guidelines and recommendations.

  12. The regolith in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ollier, C. D.

    1988-12-01

    Australian regolith materials are described, many of which are complex. Much Australian regolith dates back to the Tertiary, Mesozoic or earlier. There is a progressive change in the nature of alluvium through the Tertiary. Aridity, revealed through sand dunes and evaporites, is confined to the Quaternary. Ferricretes and silcretes are formed on lower slopes, often followed by inversion of relief. Tectonic isolation of Australia as well as climatic change is responsible for the change in the nature of terrestrial sediments since the Cretaceous.

  13. Estimating Foodborne Gastroenteritis, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Kirk, Martyn D.; Becker, Niels; Gregory, Joy E.; Unicomb, Leanne; Millard, Geoffrey; Stafford, Russell; Lalor, Karin

    2005-01-01

    We estimated for Australia the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to foodborne gastroenteritis in a typical year, circa 2000. The total amount of infectious gastroenteritis was measured by using a national telephone survey. The foodborne proportion was estimated from Australian data on each of 16 pathogens. To account for uncertainty, we used simulation techniques to calculate 95% credibility intervals (CrI). The estimate of incidence of gastroenteritis in Australia is 17.2 million (95% confidence interval 14.5–19.9 million) cases per year. We estimate that 32% (95% CrI 24%–40%) are foodborne, which equals 0.3 (95% CrI 0.2–0.4) episodes per person, or 5.4 million (95% CrI 4.0–6.9 million) cases annually in Australia. Norovirus, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, Campylobacter spp., and Salmonella spp. cause the most illnesses. In addition, foodborne gastroenteritis causes ≈15,000 (95% CrI 11,000–18,000) hospitalizations and 80 (95% CrI 40–120) deaths annually. This study highlights global public health concerns about foodborne diseases and the need for standardized methods, including assessment of uncertainty, for international comparison. PMID:16102316

  14. Usefulness of ambulatory radionuclide monitoring of left ventricular function early after acute myocardial infarction for predicting residual myocardial ischemia

    SciTech Connect

    Breisblatt, W.M.; Weiland, F.L.; McLain, J.R.; Tomlinson, G.C.; Burns, M.J.; Spaccavento, L.J.

    1988-11-15

    Ambulatory radionuclide monitoring of left ventricular function was performed with the nuclear Vest device in 35 patients early after acute myocardial infarction. Patients were evaluated during post-infarction treadmill, other activities that included mental stress and cold pressor challenge, and with stress thallium imaging and cardiac catheterization. Of the 35 patients evaluated, 14 had ischemic responses on treadmill testing and 21 had negative responses. By contrast, 20 had redistribution by thallium imaging suggesting ischemia. Vest studies demonstrated 56 responses suggestive of ischemia in 23 patients. Twenty-two occurred during exercise and 13 with mental stress. Seventy-five percent were silent and only 39% had associated electrocardiographic changes. Vest responses were compared in patients whose thallium scan was indicative of ischemia (thallium-positive) and those without ischemia (thallium-negative). Ejection fraction was higher in the thallium-positive group (0.52 +/- 0.11), as compared with thallium-negative patients (0.44 +/- 0.1). With exercise, ejection fraction decreased for the thallium-positive patients from 0.52 +/- 0.11 to 0.40 +/- 0.09 at peak exercise. For thallium-negative patients, ejection fraction changes were not significant. During mental stress, ejection fraction decreased from 0.51 +/- 0.11 to 0.45 +/- 0.12 for thallium-positive patients while thallium-negative patients were unchanged. Vest-measured decreases in ejection fraction of greater than or equal to 5 units during exercise were highly sensitive (90%), specific (73%) and predictive (82%) of a positive thallium scan. The same response for mental stress was specific (87%) and predictive (85%) of a positive scan result.

  15. Predicting the timing of first generation egg hatch for the pest redlegged earth mite Halotydeus destructor (Acari: Penthaleidae).

    PubMed

    McDonald, Garrick; Umina, Paul A; Macfadyen, Sarina; Mangano, Peter; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2015-03-01

    Integrated pest management in Australian winter grain crops is challenging, partly because the timing and severity of pest outbreaks cannot currently be predicted, and this often results in prophylactic applications of broad spectr