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Sample records for australia monitoring prediction

  1. Using a multi-parameter monitoring methodology to predict failures in the cryogenic plant of the cold neutron source at Australia's OPAL reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Weijian; Thiering, Russell

    2012-06-01

    A 5 kW Brayton-cycle helium refrigeration plant provides cooling at 20 K to the Cold Neutron Source (CNS) at Australia's OPAL Reactor. During several years of operation to the present day, the plant has experienced an unusually high number of turbine and compressor failures. The root cause for some of the failures is known, but for others remains to be determined. All of the failures were catastrophic without any prior warning from standard industrial monitoring based on singular process variables such as temperature, pressure and vibration. The failures and the down time they caused have been very costly. As the operator of the plant, we have developed a multi-parameter monitoring (MPM) methodology to track the performance of the plant. The methodology utilises indicators obtained from a combination of process variables based on their thermodynamic relations. By studying the historical trends of appropriate indicators, especially during the past failures, we have found some indicators that would be able to improve our predictive capability so that we can avoid similar failures in the future.

  2. ECLSS predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.; Chien, Steve A.

    1991-01-01

    On Space Station Freedom (SSF), design iterations have made clear the need to keep the sensor complement small. Along with the unprecendented duration of the mission, it is imperative that decisions regarding placement of sensors be carefully examined and justified during the design phase. In the ECLSS Predictive Monitoring task, we are developing AI-based software to enable design engineers to evaluate alternate sensor configurations. Based on techniques from model-based reasoning and information theory, the software tool makes explicit the quantitative tradeoffs among competing sensor placements, and helps designers explore and justify placement decisions. This work is being applied to the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) testbed at MSFC to assist design personnel in placing sensors for test purposes to evaluate baseline configurations and ultimately to select advanced life support system technologies for evolutionary SSF.

  3. HABs Monitoring and Prediction

    EPA Science Inventory

    Monitoring techniques for harmful algal blooms (HABs) vary across temporal and spatial domains. Remote satellite imagery provides information on water quality at relatively broad spatial and lengthy temporal scales. At the other end of the spectrum, local in-situ monitoring tec...

  4. Therapeutic monitoring of clozapine in Australia: the need for consensus.

    PubMed

    Oo, Thein Z; Wilson, John F; Naidoo, Divania; Chetty, Manoranjenni

    2006-10-01

    In the absence of well-defined guidelines for the monitoring of plasma concentrations of clozapine, this study examined the practices of seven laboratories from four states in Australia. Laboratories analyzed 5 freeze-dried serum samples containing a mixture of clozapine and norclozapine in varying concentrations and the measurement data were analyzed for accuracy and precision. Additional information on laboratory practices was obtained through questionnaire responses. Measurement precision amongst the laboratories was good but there were significant differences in the accuracy of measurements from one laboratory. There were differences in the ranges for which assays had been validated and in suggested therapeutic ranges. These differences could have a significant impact on the interpretation of measured concentrations and patient care, and emphasize the need for consensus in this area. Repeat concentration measurements are recommended in the case of drug concentration measurements that are inconsistent with clinical observations or previous measurements.

  5. Monitoring drug markets in the Internet age and the evolution of drug monitoring systems in Australia.

    PubMed

    Burns, Lucy; Roxburgh, Amanda; Bruno, Raimondo; Van Buskirk, Joe

    2014-01-01

    In Australia, drug monitoring systems have been in place for more than a decade allowing for the measurement of ongoing trends in drug use and the detection of new drugs. The Drug Trends Unit at the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre monitors drugs through four separate systems. The Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS) measures the price, purity, and availability of drugs that are primarily injected. The Ecstasy and Related Drugs Reporting System (EDRS) monitors psychostimulants that are used recreationally. The National Illicit Drugs Indicator Project (NIDIP) analyzes indicator data including drug-related hospitalizations and deaths. Finally, the Drugs and Emerging Technologies Project (DNeT) analyzes the role of the Internet in the procurement and use of novel psychoactive substances. This paper provides an overview of each component of the system, demonstrating how the system has evolved over time.

  6. Monitoring the Galactic Centre with the Australia Telescope Compact Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkar, A.; Eckart, A.; Straubmeier, C.; Kunneriath, D.; Jalali, B.; Sabha, N.; Shahzamanian, B.; García-Marín, M.; Valencia-S, M.; Sjouwerman, L.; Britzen, S.; Karas, V.; Dovčiak, M.; Donea, A.; Zensus, A.

    2016-05-01

    The supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), at the centre of the Milky Way undergoes regular flaring activity, which is thought to arise from the innermost region of the accretion flow. Between 2010 and 2014, we performed monitoring observations of the Galactic Centre to study the flux-density variations at 3 mm using the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). We obtain light curves of Sgr A* by subtracting the contributions from the extended emission around it, and the elevation and time-dependent gains of the telescope. We perform structure function analysis and the Bayesian blocks representation to detect flare events. The observations detect six instances of significant variability in the flux density of Sgr A* in three observations, with variations between 0.5 and 1.0 Jy, which last for 1.5-3 h. We use the adiabatically expanding plasmon model to explain the short time-scale variations in the flux density. We derive the physical quantities of the modelled flare emission, such as the source expansion speed vexp, source sizes, spectral indices and the turnover frequency. These parameters imply that the expanding source components are either confined to the immediate vicinity of Sgr A* by contributing to the corona or the disc, or have a bulk motion greater than vexp. No exceptional flux-density variation on short flare time-scales was observed during the approach and the flyby of the dusty S-cluster object (DSO/G2). This is consistent with its compactness and the absence of a large bow shock.

  7. Australia.

    PubMed

    1989-03-01

    The smallest continent and one of the largest countries, Australia is a country of diverse geographical conditions and differing cultures of people unified by one predominant language and political system. Mountains, desert and rivers are some of the varying landscape features of Australia, although the climate and condition for most of the country is tropical. Original Australians, a hunting-gathering people called Aborigines, came to Australia over 38,000 years ago. Today the Aborigines compose about 1% of the population and live in traditional tribal areas as well as cities. The 1st European settlement came in 1788 from Great Britain. After World War II, the population doubled. Although the population is primarily composed of British and Irish immigrants, immigrants from other European countries such as Italy and Greece as well as refugees from Indochina, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are a significant factor to the growing Australian population. Australian and Aboriginal culture has took hold and took notice in the areas of opera, art, literature and film. The Australian Commonwealth is based on a constitution similar to that of the United States government. The National Parliament is bicameral with both the Senate and the House of Representatives having a select number of elected officials from each state and territory. The Australian economy is predominantly reliant on the sale of mineral and agricultural exports. History, economic changes, defense, international relations and notes to the traveler are also discussed in this overview of Australia.

  8. Monitoring International Interest in Transnational Academic Mobility to Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, John L.

    2011-01-01

    This research examines the issue of transnational academic mobility of academic staff looking at potential moves to higher education institutions in Australia. By establishing a web-based portal, attracting interested parties from around the world with information about Australian universities and subsequent career opportunities, web analytics are…

  9. Seasonal Dynamical Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spillman, C. M.; Alves, O.

    2009-05-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is now recognised as the primary cause of mass coral bleaching events. Coral bleaching occurs during times of stress, particularly when SSTs exceed the coral colony's tolerance level. Global warming is potentially a serious threat to the future of the world's reef systems with predictions by the international community that bleaching will increase in both frequency and severity. Advance warning of anomalous sea surface temperatures, and thus potential bleaching events, would allow for the implementation of management strategies to minimise reef damage. Seasonal SST forecasts from the coupled ocean-atmosphere model POAMA (Bureau of Meteorology) have skill in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) several months into the future. We will present model forecasts and probabilistic products for use in reef management, and assess model skill in the region. These products will revolutionise the way in which coral bleaching events are monitored and assessed in the Great Barrier Reef and Australian region.

  10. Designing optimal greenhouse gas monitoring networks for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziehn, T.; Law, R. M.; Rayner, P. J.; Roff, G.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric transport inversion is commonly used to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) flux estimates from concentration measurements. The optimal location of ground-based observing stations that supply these measurements can be determined by network design. Here, we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) in reverse mode together with a Bayesian inverse modelling framework to derive optimal GHG observing networks for Australia. This extends the network design for carbon dioxide (CO2) performed by Ziehn et al. (2014) to also minimise the uncertainty on the flux estimates for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both individually and in a combined network using multiple objectives. Optimal networks are generated by adding up to five new stations to the base network, which is defined as two existing stations, Cape Grim and Gunn Point, in southern and northern Australia respectively. The individual networks for CO2, CH4 and N2O and the combined observing network show large similarities because the flux uncertainties for each GHG are dominated by regions of biologically productive land. There is little penalty, in terms of flux uncertainty reduction, for the combined network compared to individually designed networks. The location of the stations in the combined network is sensitive to variations in the assumed data uncertainty across locations. A simple assessment of economic costs has been included in our network design approach, considering both establishment and maintenance costs. Our results suggest that, while site logistics change the optimal network, there is only a small impact on the flux uncertainty reductions achieved with increasing network size.

  11. Predicted Spatial Spread of Canine Rabies in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Fleming, Peter J. S.; Ward, Michael P.; Davis, Stephen A.

    2017-01-01

    Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a new infectious case appeared 120 km from the index case. We found 21% of initial value settings resulted in canine rabies spreading 120km, and on doing so at a median speed of 67 km/year. Parameters governing dog movements and behaviour, around which there is a paucity of knowledge, explained most of the variance in model outcomes. Dog density, especially when interactions with other parameters were included, explained some of the variance in whether rabies spread 120km, but dog demography (mean lifespan and mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide a clear research direction if Australia is to improve its preparedness for rabies. PMID:28114327

  12. Perceived coping & concern predict terrorism preparedness in Australia

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In the aftermath of major terrorist incidents research shows population shifts towards protective behaviours, including specific preparedness and avoidance responses. Less is known about individual preparedness in populations with high assumed threat but limited direct exposure, such as Australia. In this study we aimed to determine whether individuals with high perceived coping and higher concern would show greater preparedness to respond to terrorism threats. Methods Adults in New South Wales (NSW) completed terrorism perception and response questions as part of computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) in 2010 (N=2038). Responses were weighted against the NSW population. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between personal coping/concern factors and terrorism-related preparedness and avoidance behaviours, and to control for potential confounders such as socio-demographic and threat perception factors. Results Increased vigilance for suspicious behaviours was the most commonly reported behavioural response to perceived terrorism threat. Multivariate analyses showed that the factor combination of high perceived coping and higher concern was the most consistent predictor of terrorism preparedness behaviours and evacuation intentions, including increased vigilance (Adjusted Odd Ratios (AOR)=2.07, p=0.001) learning evacuation plans (AOR=1.61, p=0.05), establishing emergency contact plans (AOR=2.73, p<0.001), willingness to evacuate homes (AOR=2.20, p=0.039), and willingness to evacuate workplaces or public facilities (AOR=6.19, p=0.015) during potential future incidents. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that terrorism preparedness behaviours are strongly associated with perceived high coping but that this relationship is also mediated by personal concerns relating to this threat. Cognitive variables such as coping self-efficacy are increasingly targeted as part of natural hazard preparedness

  13. Improving Climate Prediction By Climate Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroy, S. S.; Redaelli, G.; Grassi, B.

    2014-12-01

    Various climate agencies are pursuing concepts of space-based atmospheric monitoring based on ideas of empirically verifiable accuracy in observations. Anticipating that atmospheric monitoring systems based in observing the emitted longwave spectrum, the reflected shortwave spectrum, and radio occultation are implemented, we seek to discover how long-term records in these quantities might be used to improve our ability to predict climate change. This is a follow-up to a previous study that found that climate monitoring by remote sensing better informs climate prediction than does climate monitoring in situ. We have used the output of a CMIP5 historical scenario to hind-cast observation types being considered for space-based atmospheric monitoring to modify ensemble prediction of multi-decadal climate change produced by a CMIP5 future scenario. Specifically, we have considered spatial fingerprints of 1970­-2005 averages and trends in hind-cast observations to improve global average surface air temperature change from 2005 to 2100. Correlations between hind-cast observations at individual locations on the globe and multi-decadal change are generally consistent with a null-correlation distribution. We have found that the modes in inter-model differences in hind-casts are clearly identified with tropical clouds, but only Arctic warming as can be identified in radio occultation observations correlates with multi-decadal change, but only with 80% confidence. Understanding how long-term monitoring can be used to improve climate prediction remains an unsolved problem, but it is anticipated that improving climate prediction will depend strongly on an ability to distinguish between climate forcing and climate response in remotely sensed observables.

  14. Principles for the monitoring and evaluation of wetland extent, condition and function in Australia.

    PubMed

    Saintilan, Neil; Imgraben, Sarah

    2012-01-01

    The monitoring of resource condition is receiving renewed attention across several levels of government in Australia. This interest is linked to substantial investment in environmental remediation and aquatic ecosystem restoration in particular. In this context, it is timely to consider principles which ought to guide the development and implementation of monitoring programmes for wetland ecosystems. A framework is established which places monitoring in the context of the strategic adaptive management of wetlands. This framework requires there has to be clear goals for the extent and condition of the resource, with these goals being defined within thresholds of acceptable variability. Qualitative and, where possible, quantitative conceptual models linking management interventions to management goals should be the basis of indicator selection and assessment. The intensity of sampling ought to be informed by pilot surveys of statistical power in relation to the thresholds of acceptable variability identified within the management plan.

  15. Long-term marine litter monitoring in the remote Great Australian Bight, South Australia.

    PubMed

    Edyvane, K S; Dalgetty, A; Hone, P W; Higham, J S; Wace, N M

    2004-06-01

    The Anxious Bay beach litter clearance is the longest running annual survey of ocean-based litter in Australia. It's remoteness from centres of human population and location (with respect to prevailing winds and currents) make it an ideal place for monitoring ocean or ship-based litter in Australia's southern oceans and particularly, the Great Australian Bight. Over the 1991-1999 period, a large but gradual decline in the amount of beach washed litter was recorded (with minor peaks recorded during the 1992 and 1994 surveys). Beach washed litter decreased by approximately 86%, from 344 kg recorded in 1991 (13.2 kg/km) to 49 kg in 1999 (i.e. 1.9 kg/km), reaching a maximum of 390 kg in 1992 (or 15 kg/km of beach). However, a sharp increase in litter was recorded in 2000 (i.e. 252 kg or 9.7 kg/km). This increase in litter yield in 2000 is probably due to stronger than average onshore surface flow (or Ekman Transport) in the western Eyre Peninsula and Bight region. Prior to the survey in 2000, the results appeared to indicate that ocean litter on Anxious Bay beach was beginning to level out at around 50-70 kg/year (i.e. 2-3 kg/km). As the beach surveys involve the assumption that the beach is completely cleared of litter, this may represent a baseline level for ocean-based litter in the region. The yields and type of litter collected from the annual survey indicates that the majority of litter washed ashore originates from commercial fishing activities within the Great Australian Bight. Most of the fishing-related litter was directly sourced to the Southern Rock Lobster Fishery (i.e. bait buckets, baskets, pots), the Great Australian Bight Trawl Fishery (i.e. codends, trawl nets) and the Southern Shark Fishery (i.e. monofilament gillnets and longlines). Between 1994 and 1999, large reductions were observed in the amount of bait straps (77% reduction), lobster bait baskets/buckets (86% reduction), nets/ropes (62% reduction) and floats/buoys (83% reduction). Significantly

  16. Monitoring and adaptive resistance management in Australia for Bt-cotton: current status and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Downes, Sharon; Mahon, Rod; Olsen, Karen

    2007-07-01

    In the mid-1990 s the Australian Cotton industry adopted an insect-resistant variety of cotton (Ingard) which expresses the Bt toxin Cry1Ac that is specific to a group of insects including the target Helicoverpa armigera. A conservative resistance management plan (RMP), that restricted the area planted to Ingard, was implemented to preserve the efficacy of Cry1Ac until two-gene transgenic cotton was available. In 2004/05 Bollgard II replaced Ingard as the transgenic cotton available in Australia. It improves on Ingard by incorporating an additional insecticidal protein (Cry2Ab). If an appropriate refuge is grown, there is no restriction on the area planted to Bollgard II. In 2004/05 and 2005/06 the Bollgard II acreage represented approximately 80 of the total area planted to cotton in Australia. The sensitivity of field-collected populations of H. armigera to Bt products was assayed before and subsequent to the widespread deployment of Ingard cotton. In 2002 screens against Cry2Ab were developed in preparation for replacement of Ingard with Bollgard II. There have been no reported field failures of Bollgard II due to resistance. However, while alleles that confer resistance to H. armigera in the field are rare for Cry1Ac, they are surprisingly common for Cry2Ab. We present an overview of the current approach adopted in Australia to monitor and adaptively manage resistance to Bt-cotton in field populations of H. armigera and discuss the implications of our findings to date. We also highlight future challenges for resistance management in Australia, many of which extend to other Bt-crop and pest systems.

  17. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system

    PubMed Central

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe. PMID:25977759

  18. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

    PubMed

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.

  19. Monitoring the control of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases in Australia: towards a national HPV surveillance strategy.

    PubMed

    Brotherton, Julia M L; Kaldor, John M; Garland, Suzanne M

    2010-09-01

    This paper describes a possible multifaceted approach to human papillomavirus (HPV) related surveillance in Australia following implementation of a national HPV vaccination program. We describe eight main components: monitoring of vaccine coverage, vaccine safety, type-specific HPV infection surveillance, cervical cytology (Pap screening) coverage and screen detected lesion prevalence, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, genital wart incidence, incidence of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, and knowledge, attitudes and beliefs about HPV and HPV vaccination. Australia is well placed to monitor the impact of its HPV vaccination program as well as to measure vaccine effectiveness with existing HPV vaccines, cervical screening and cancer registries.

  20. Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

  1. Predicting avian distributions to evaluate spatiotemporal overlap with locust control operations in eastern Australia.

    PubMed

    Szabo, Judit K; Davy, Pamela J; Hooper, Michael J; Astheimer, Lee B

    2009-12-01

    Locusts and grasshoppers cause considerable economic damage to agriculture worldwide. The Australian Plague Locust Commission uses multiple pesticides to control locusts in eastern Australia. Avian exposure to agricultural pesticides is of conservation concern, especially in the case of rare and threatened species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of pesticide exposure of native avian species during operational locust control based on knowledge of species occurrence in areas and times of application. Using presence-absence data provided by the Birds Australia Atlas for 1998 to 2002, we developed a series of generalized linear models to predict avian occurrences on a monthly basis in 0.5 degrees grid cells for 280 species over 2 million km2 in eastern Australia. We constructed species-specific models relating occupancy patterns to survey date and location, rainfall, and derived habitat preference. Model complexity depended on the number of observations available. Model output was the probability of occurrence for each species at times and locations of past locust control operations within the 5-year study period. Given the high spatiotemporal variability of locust control events, the variability in predicted bird species presence was high, with 108 of the total 280 species being included at least once in the top 20 predicted species for individual space-time events. The models were evaluated using field surveys collected between 2000 and 2005, at sites with and without locust outbreaks. Model strength varied among species. Some species were under- or over-predicted as times and locations of interest typically did not correspond to those in the prediction data set and certain species were likely attracted to locusts as a food source. Field surveys demonstrated the utility of the spatially explicit species lists derived from the models but also identified the presence of a number of previously unanticipated species. These results also emphasize

  2. Monitoring temporal changes in use of two cathinones in a large urban catchment in Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Thai, Phong K; Lai, Foon Yin; Edirisinghe, Methsiri; Hall, Wayne; Bruno, Raimondo; O'Brien, Jake W; Prichard, Jeremy; Kirkbride, K Paul; Mueller, Jochen F

    2016-03-01

    Wastewater analysis was used to examine prevalence and temporal trends in the use of two cathinones, methylone and mephedrone, in an urban population (>200,000 people) in South East Queensland, Australia. Wastewater samples were collected from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant that serviced the catchment from 2011 to 2013. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to measure mephedrone and methylone in wastewater sample using direct injection mode. Mephedrone was not detected in any samples while methylone was detected in 45% of the samples. Daily mass loads of methylone were normalized to the population and used to evaluate methylone use in the catchment. Methylone mass loads peaked in 2012 but there was no clear temporal trend over the monitoring period. The prevalence of methylone use in the catchment was associated with the use of MDMA, the more popular analogue of methylone, as indicated by other complementary sources. Methylone use was stable in the study catchment during the monitoring period whereas mephedrone use has been declining after its peak in 2010. More research is needed on the pharmacokinetics of emerging illicit drugs to improve the applicability of wastewater analysis in monitoring their use in the population.

  3. Thermal sensitivity of Aedes aegypti from Australia: empirical data and prediction of effects on distribution.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Kelly; Hoffmann, Ary A; Johnson, Petrina; Ritchie, Scott; Kearney, Michael R

    2011-07-01

    An understanding of physiological sensitivity to temperature and its variability is important for predicting habitat suitability for disease vectors under different climatic regimes. In this study, we characterized the thermal sensitivity of larval developmental rates and survival in several Australian mainland populations of the dengue virus vector Aedes aegypti. Males developed more rapidly than females, but there were no differences among populations for development time or survival despite previously demonstrated genetic differentiation for neutral markers. Optimal development and survival temperatures were 37 degrees C and 25 degrees C, respectively. The values for maximal development and survival were similar to standard functions used in the container inhabiting simulation (CIMSIM) model for predicting population dynamics ofAe. aegypti populations, but CIMSIM assumed a lower optimal temperature. Heat stress experiments indicated that larvae could withstand water temperatures up to 44 degrees C regardless of the rate at which temperature was increased. Results from development time measured under constant temperatures could predict development time under fluctuating conditions, whereas CIMSIM predicted faster rates of development. This difference acts to reduce the predicted potential number of generations of Ae. aegypti per year in Australia, although it does not influence its predicted distribution, which depends critically on the nature of the aquatic breeding sites.

  4. A tunnel study to validate motor vehicle emission prediction software in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smit, R.; Kingston, P.; Wainwright, D. H.; Tooker, R.

    2017-02-01

    A tunnel emissions study was conducted to (partially) validate the Australian vehicle emissions software COPERT Australia and PIARC emission factors. The in-tunnel fleet mix differs substantially from the average on-road fleet, leading to lower emissions by a factor of about 2. Simulation with the PΔP software found that in-tunnel air-flow compensates to a large extent for road gradient impacts on NOx emissions. PIARC emission factors are conservative and exhibit the largest prediction errors, except for one very good agreement for LDV NOx. COPERT Australia is generally accurate at fleet level for CO, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10, when compared with other international studies, and consistently underestimates emissions by 7%-37%, depending on the pollutant. Possible contributing factors are under-representation of high/excessive emitting vehicles, inaccurate mileage correction factors, and lack of empirical emissions data for Australian diesel cars. The study results demonstrate a large uncertainty in speciated VOC and PAH emission factors.

  5. A future geodetic monitoring system for vertical land motion in the Perth basin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filmer, Mick; Featherstone, Will; Morgan, Linda; Schenk, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    SAR imagery. The InSAR component is necessary to avoid reliance on discrete monitoring stations and to provide larger scale mapping of the subsidence. As the framework for an ongoing monitoring programme, images are being acquired from the German Aerospace Centre's (DLR's) TerraSAR-X satellite mission under a collaborative science project among Geoscience Australia, Curtin University of Technology, Landgate and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. This programme initially covers ~13 months (up to 30 images) and will provide sufficient data to lay the foundation for ongoing monitoring. This monitoring programme will be used to determine linear and non-linear VLM in Perth at time scales ranging from seasonal to long term over multiple years.

  6. Electromagnetic monitoring of stimulated hot dry rock systems - modelling and examples from South Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiel, S.; Peacock, J.; Heinson, G. S.; Reid, P.

    2011-12-01

    Realization of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) prescribes the need for novel technology to monitor the created reservoir. Conventionally, micro-earthquake arrays are used to monitor seismic events associated with the postulated pressure front of the injected fluid. We propose the additional use of the magnetotelluric (MT) technique which is directly sensitive to elevated electrical conductivity allowing mapping the conductive injected fluid in the subsurface. MT is a passive electromagnetic method that characterizes geoelectric structure by measuring the Earth's response to natural magnetic fields. Measuring the MT response before, during and after fluids are injected into the reservoir provides a tool to delineate reservoir boundaries at depth. This is important as electrical conductivity can change by a few orders of magnitude making a conductive fluid in resistive host rock a viable MT target at depth. Three-dimensional MT forward modelling illustrates the dependence of reservoir size and depth as well as the dampening effect of a conductive overburden, such as a sedimentary basin. Forward modelling suggests changes in the MT response of a proposed reservoir at 3.5km depth will be on the order of a few percent, advising an accurate and precise prior data set is collected. A test case from Paralana, South Australia will be presented illustrating results of MT responses before and after fluids are injected as well as time-lapse transfer function variability during the injection.

  7. Monthly prediction of air temperature in Australia and New Zealand with machine learning algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Deo, R. C.; Carro-Calvo, L.; Saavedra-Moreno, B.

    2016-07-01

    Long-term air temperature prediction is of major importance in a large number of applications, including climate-related studies, energy, agricultural, or medical. This paper examines the performance of two Machine Learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP)) in a problem of monthly mean air temperature prediction, from the previous measured values in observational stations of Australia and New Zealand, and climate indices of importance in the region. The performance of the two considered algorithms is discussed in the paper and compared to alternative approaches. The results indicate that the SVR algorithm is able to obtain the best prediction performance among all the algorithms compared in the paper. Moreover, the results obtained have shown that the mean absolute error made by the two algorithms considered is significantly larger for the last 20 years than in the previous decades, in what can be interpreted as a change in the relationship among the prediction variables involved in the training of the algorithms.

  8. A Sensitive Search for Predicted Methanol Maser Transitions with the Australia Telescope Compact Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chipman, A.; Ellingsen, S. P.; Sobolev, A. M.; Cragg, D. M.

    2016-11-01

    We have used the Australia Telescope Compact Array to search for a number of centimetre wavelength methanol transitions which are predicted to show weak maser emission towards star formation regions. Sensitive, high spatial, and spectral resolution observations towards four high-mass star formation regions which show emission in a large number of class II methanol maser transitions did not result in any detections. From these observations, we are able to place an upper limit of ≲ 1300 K on the brightness temperature of any emission from the 31A+-31A-, 17-2-18-3 E (vt = 1), 124-133 A-, 124-133 A+, and 41A+-41A- transitions of methanol in these sources on angular scales of 2 arcsec. This upper limit is consistent with current models for class II methanol masers in high-mass star formation regions and better constraints than those provided here will likely require observations with next-generation radio telescopes.

  9. Monitoring contrasting land management in the savanna landscapes of northern Australia.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Donald C; Petty, Aaron M; Williamson, Grant J; Brook, Barry W; Bowman, David M J S

    2008-04-01

    We compared measures of ecosystem state across six adjacent land-tenure groups in the intact tropical savanna landscapes of northern Australia. Tenure groups include two managed by Aboriginal owners, two national parks, a cluster of pastoral leases, and a military training area. This information is of relevance to the debate about the role of indigenous lands in the Australian conservation estate. The timing and frequency of fire was determined by satellite imagery; the biomass and composition of the herb-layer and the abundance of large feral herbivores by field surveys; and weediness by analysis of a Herbarium database. European tenures varied greatly in fire frequencies but were consistently burnt earlier in the dry season than the two Aboriginal tenures, the latter having intermediate fire frequencies. Weeds were more frequent in the European tenures, whilst feral animals were most abundant in the Aboriginal tenures. This variation strongly implies a signature of current management and/or recent environmental history. We identify indices suitable for monitoring of management outcomes in an extensive and sparsely populated landscape. Aboriginal land offers a unique opportunity for the conservation of biodiversity through the maintenance of traditional fire regimes. However, without financial support, traditional practices may prove unsustainable both economically and because exotic weeds and feral animals will alter fire regimes. An additional return on investment in Aboriginal land management is likely to be improved livelihoods and health outcomes for these disadvantaged communities.

  10. Radon monitoring and hazard prediction in Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elio, Javier; Crowley, Quentin; Scanlon, Ray; Hodgson, Jim; Cooper, Mark; Long, Stephanie

    2016-04-01

    Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas which forms as a decay product from uranium. It is the largest source of natural ionizing radiation affecting the global population. When radon is inhaled, its short-lived decay products can interact with lung tissue leading to DNA damage and development of lung cancer. Ireland has among the highest levels of radon in Europe and eighth highest of an OECD survey of 29 countries. Every year some two hundred and fifty cases of lung cancer in Ireland are linked to radon exposure. This new research project will build upon previous efforts of radon monitoring in Ireland to construct a high-resolution radon hazard map. This will be achieved using recently available high-resolution airborne gamma-ray spectrometry (radiometric) and soil geochemistry data (http://www.tellus.ie/), indoor radon concentrations (http://www.epa.ie/radiation), and new direct measurement of soil radon. In this regard, legacy indoor radon concentrations will be correlated with soil U and Th concentrations and other geogenic data. This is a new approach since the vast majority of countries with a national radon monitoring programme rely on indoor radon measurements, or have a spatially limited dataset of soil radon measurements. Careful attention will be given to areas where an indicative high radon hazard based on geogenic factors does not match high indoor radon concentrations. Where such areas exist, it may imply that some parameter(s) in the predictive model does not match that of the environment. These areas will be subjected to measurement of radon soil gas using a combination of time averaged (passive) and time dependant (active) measurements in order to better understand factors affecting production, transport and accumulation of radon in the natural environment. Such mapping of radon-prone areas will ultimately help to inform when prevention and remediation measures are necessary, reducing the radon exposure of the population. Therefore, given

  11. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations the CSIRO (Australia) monitoring program from aircraft 1972 - 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Beardsmore, D.J.; Pearman, G.I.

    1984-09-01

    Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations were measured in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Australia-New Zealand region and as far south as Antarctica for the period 1972-1981. The samples were collected from aircraft over a large range of latitudes and altitudes. The sampling program has been based on the cooperation of the Australia Department of Transport, Quantas Airways, Trans Australia Airlines, the United States, New Zealand and Australian Air Forces and occasional chartering of light aircraft for special purposes.

  12. Predicting Cereal Root Disease in Western Australia Using Soil DNA and Environmental Parameters.

    PubMed

    Poole, Grant J; Harries, Martin; Hüberli, D; Miyan, S; MacLeod, W J; Lawes, Roger; McKay, A

    2015-08-01

    Root diseases have long been prevalent in Australian grain-growing regions, and most management decisions to reduce the risk of yield loss need to be implemented before the crop is sown. The levels of pathogens that cause the major root diseases can be measured using DNA-based services such as PreDicta B. Although these pathogens are often studied individually, in the field they often occur as mixed populations and their combined effect on crop production is likely to vary across diverse cropping environments. A 3-year survey was conducted covering most cropping regions in Western Australia, utilizing PreDicta B to determine soilborne pathogen levels and visual assessments to score root health and incidence of individual crop root diseases caused by the major root pathogens, including Rhizoctonia solani (anastomosis group [AG]-8), Gaeumannomyces graminis var. tritici (take-all), Fusarium pseudograminearum, and Pratylenchus spp. (root-lesion nematodes) on wheat roots for 115, 50, and 94 fields during 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. A predictive model was developed for root health utilizing autumn and summer rainfall and soil temperature parameters. The model showed that pathogen DNA explained 16, 5, and 2% of the variation in root health whereas environmental parameters explained 22, 11, and 1% of the variation in 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. Results showed that R. solani AG-8 soil pathogen DNA, environmental soil temperature, and rainfall parameters explained most of the variation in the root health. This research shows that interactions between environment and pathogen levels before seeding can be utilized in predictive models to improve assessment of risk from root diseases to assist growers to plan more profitable cropping programs.

  13. Time-lapse Geophysical Monitoring of the Subsurface Hydrology at Kings Park, Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adekoya, Tunde; McGrath, Gavan; Leopold, Matthias; Shragge, Jeffrey; Challis, Anthea; Stevens, Jason; Miller, Ben

    2015-04-01

    The increasing occurrence of drought stress throughout Southwestern Western Australia is postulated to have contributed to the decline of Banksia populations both in Kings Park, Perth, and in the Banksia woodlands in the greater Swan Coastal Plain region. To help quantify these assertions, there is an urgent need to better understand the base levels of soil moisture content - as well as seasonal variations thereof - in these geographical regions. We conducted time-lapse (TL) electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods on a monthly basis (May-August 2014). In addition, at each site we hand-augured test holes to a depth of 3-4 m and collected samples at 20-cm intervals to enable grain-size analysis, soil moisture content and water retention tests. PR2 capacitance probe measurements were also acquired when augering to enable a moisture content comparison study. The acquired TL ERT datasets were inverted using 2D EarthImager software and the temporal variations in resistivity were interpreted in terms of changes in moisture content. The TL ERT data reveal significant calendar variations in the spatial distribution of moisture content. The TL ERT inversions also detected isolated less resistive lithologies and the depth to groundwater. Processed TL GPR data were interpreted to show vertical variations in the vadose zone moisture content. The water content variations were consistent with the rainfall data. The grain-size distributions of the samples were analysed statistically. The apparent resistivity values from the analysed samples and observed volumetric water content are strongly correlated (R2=0.84) as may be expected from Archie's law. Soil moisture content analysis results including the PR2 probe measurements were plotted as a function of depth, the result shows vertical variations in moisture content with depth. The hydrological tests indicated the properties of the subsurface lithologies and confirm the responses of the

  14. Sensitivity analysis of numerical weather prediction radiative schemes to forecast direct solar radiation over Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukkavilli, S. K.; Kay, M. J.; Taylor, R.; Prasad, A. A.; Troccoli, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) project requires forecasting timeframes which range from nowcasting to long-term forecasts (minutes to two years). As concentrating solar power (CSP) plant operators are one of the key stakeholders in the national energy market, research and development enhancements for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is a major subtask. This project involves comparing different radiative scheme codes to improve day ahead DNI forecasts on the national supercomputing infrastructure running mesoscale simulations on NOAA's Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model. ASEFS also requires aerosol data fusion for improving accurate representation of spatio-temporally variable atmospheric aerosols to reduce DNI bias error in clear sky conditions over southern Queensland & New South Wales where solar power is vulnerable to uncertainities from frequent aerosol radiative events such as bush fires and desert dust. Initial results from thirteen years of Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) deseasonalised DNI and MODIS NASA-Terra aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies demonstrated strong negative correlations in north and southeast Australia along with strong variability in AOD (~0.03-0.05). Radiative transfer schemes, DNI and AOD anomaly correlations will be discussed for the population and transmission grid centric regions where current and planned CSP plants dispatch electricity to capture peak prices in the market. Aerosol and solar irradiance datasets include satellite and ground based assimilations from the national BOM, regional aerosol researchers and agencies. The presentation will provide an overview of this ASEFS project task on WRF and results to date. The overall goal of this ASEFS subtask is to develop a hybrid numerical weather prediction (NWP) and statistical/machine learning multi-model ensemble strategy that meets future operational requirements of CSP plant operators.

  15. Campaigns to Monitor Predicted Mesolensing Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Stefano, Rosanne; Lepine, S.; Matthews, J.

    2012-01-01

    When a nearby high-proper-motion star moves in front of a crowded stellar field, there is a high probability that it will lens one of the background stars. Lensing events can, in fact, be predicted. This makes it important to answer the question: when a lensing event is predicted, how best to plan an observing campaign to study the event and extract the parameters of the lens? How can we use such campaigns to discover planets or to compute the probability that the lens star has planets? We will discuss the specific example of the mesolens VB 10, which will have lensed a background star in December of 2011. Although the predicted low magnification and the presence of the Sun near the event location will have made conditions less than ideal for the study of this event, constraints on planets may have been derived by the time of the talk. Whatever the results,we will discuss what we learned by planning for this first-ever predicted mesolensing event. We will discuss the prospects for future predictions of individual events and of statistical predictions of multiple high-probability events.

  16. Monitoring International Interest in Transnational Academic Mobility to Australia: A Mixed-Method Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, John L.

    2013-01-01

    In a recent study, the issue of transnational academic mobility of academic staff, considering moves to higher education institutions in Australia, was examined using a web-based portal that attracted interested parties from around the world with information about Australian academic career opportunities. Web analytics were used as the research…

  17. Monitoring and modelling walking track impacts in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Grant; Hawes, Martin; McPherson, Glen

    2004-07-01

    A program has been developed for monitoring the condition of unimproved walking tracks on a 1000-km track system in Western Tasmania, and it has been used as the basis of an eight-year study of track-impact development. The monitoring technique involves measuring track depth and two track-width indicators at permanently marked and widely dispersed sites, each site comprising ten transects located at 2-m intervals. Sites have been 'typed' on the basis of track slope, drainage and substrate characteristics, and the typing scheme has been tested and refined by assessing the relationship between type-usage groups and observed impacts. Analysis reveals that track depth and rates of erosion are strongly influenced by track type and to a lesser extent by usage, while track width is influenced mainly by usage and track bogginess. The time-invariant variable 'usage gradient' was introduced to compensate for the fact that usage levels on most walking tracks in Western Tasmania have varied over time. Data derived from multiple inspections at 2-3 year intervals since 1994 from over 250 sites have been used to derive impact/time curves for different type-'usage gradient' groups. Each of the impact variables can be approximated by the formula m = alphatBeta, where m is the expected value of the impact variable, t is chronological time, and alpha and Beta are constants characteristic of the impact variable and type-'usage gradient' group in question. The typing scheme and impact-development model have the potential to be used for systematically describing and predicting impacts over extensive systems of 'typed' tracks. The implications of these findings for the ongoing monitoring, sitting and management of walking tracks are discussed.

  18. Diversity "down under": monogeneans in the Antipodes (Australia) with a prediction of monogenean biodiversity worldwide.

    PubMed

    Whittington, I D

    1998-10-01

    There are approximately 25,000 species of fishes known in the world. The Monogenea are believed to be among the most host-specific of parasites and if each species of fish is host to a different species of monogenean, there could be almost 25,000 monogenean species on Earth. Currently, I estimate that between 3000 and 4000 of these are described. Australia has a rich marine fish fauna with approximately 3500 species of teleosts. If the same formula of one monogenean species per host fish species is applied, Australia marine fishes could host potentially 3500 species of monogeneans. The first monogenean species described from Australia was Encotyllabe pagrosomi MacCallum, 1917 and approximately 300 more species have since been described from the continent. Even in a region of Australia such as Heron Island on the Great Barrier Reef that has been a focus of sustained research on these parasites, only about 85 species are described from 40 of the most common, easily-caught species of fish. Reasons are discussed for the relatively small numbers of monogenean species described so far from Australia. Endemicity is difficult to judge, but only one is certain: Concinnocotyla australensis (Polystomatidae) from Neoceratodus forsteri (Dipnoi). Despite reductions in research funding, the value of parasite taxonomy must not be underestimated, particularly in regions of the world that have a rich diversity of potential hosts.

  19. Monitoring and predicting the 2007 U.S. drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Lifeng; Wood, Eric F.

    2007-11-01

    Severe droughts developed in the West and Southeast of the U.S. starting early in 2007. The development of the droughts is well monitored and predicted by our model-based Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (DMAPS). Using the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) realtime meteorological forcing and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, DMAPS is capable of providing a quantitative assessment of the drought in near realtime. Using seasonal climate forecasts from NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) as one input, DMAPS successfully predicted the evolution of the droughts several months in advance. The realtime monitoring and prediction of drought with the system will provide invaluable information for drought preparation and drought impact assessment at national and local scales.

  20. The Murrumbidgee Monitoring Network: Supporting CEOP, GEWEX and Hydrological Research in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellett, K. M.; Western, A. W.; Walker, J. P.; Sirawardena, L.; Young, R. I.; Smith, A. B.; Flint, A. L.; Summerell, G.

    2006-12-01

    In 2001 a network of 18 soil moisture monitoring sites were installed across the 80,000 square km Murrumbidgee River catchment in Australia with the aim of evaluating the land surface component of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational weather forecasting model. Since that time the Murrumbidgee Monitoring Network (MMN) has evolved to include 46 sites for continuous measurement of root-zone soil moisture, soil temperature and precipitation, as well as observations of deep soil moisture and ground water variability. Much of these data will soon be incorporated into the World Climate Research Programme's Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) database (www.ceop.net) marking a substantial new contribution from the Australian continent. This paper provides an overview of the MMN and presents current results from applications in a number of regional-scale research projects including the Murray-Darling Basin GEWEX study and the National Airborne Field Experiment 2006 (NAFE'06) aimed at improving the retrieval of soil moisture and vegetation parameters from airborne and satellite platforms. The MMN also plays an integral role in the HYDROGRACE project with the objectives of (1) providing the first in-situ based validation of terrestrial water storage observations from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission and (2) improving regional-scale model simulations through data assimilation of GRACE observations. The MMN is part of the broader OzNet hydrological monitoring network throughout eastern Australia. Details on OzNet and the projects mentioned above are provided at www.oznet.unimelb.edu.au.

  1. Laboratory surveillance of invasive pneumococcal disease in Australia, 2003 predicting the future impact of the universal childhood conjugate vaccine program.

    PubMed

    Watson, Michael; Roche, Paul; Bayley, Kathy; Bell, Jan M; Collignon, Peter; Gilbert, Gwendolyn L; Hogg, Geoff; Keil, Anthony D; Krause, Vicki; Murphy, Denise; Smith, Helen V; Brown, Mitchell; Stylianopoulos, Joanne; Turnidge, John

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) laboratory surveillance program was carried out in Australia in 2003. This program provided data on the prevalence of pneumococcal serotypes and antimicrobial resistance. There were 1,995 isolates tested with 34 per cent (683) from children aged less than five years and 27 per cent (535) from the elderly aged more than 65 years. One thousand eight hundred and sixty were isolates from blood, 79 from CSF and 56 from other sterile sites. In young children, 84 per cent of isolates were a serotype and 92 per cent a serogroup in the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vPCV). Of penicillin resistant isolates in children less than five years of age 85 per cent and 98 per cent were a serotype and serogroup in the 7vPCV respectively. When the universal 7vPCV vaccine program in young children is introduced in 2005, a proportion of cases of IPD should also be prevented in young adults (estimated reduction of 54 cases annually) and elderly Australians (an estimated reduction of 110 cases annually) as a result of improved herd immunity. Pneumococcal serotypes with higher rates of penicillin resistance (19F, 14 and 6B) were more prevalent in the elderly than in young children. In contrast, erythromycin resistance was more common in children less than five years of age (24%) compared to the elderly (15%). The predominant serotype with erythromycin resistance in Australia was serotype 14 and thus there is likely to be a major reduction in erythromycin resistance as a result of 7vPCV vaccination. Continued surveillance of pneumococcal serotype distribution and antibiotic susceptibility will be essential in order to identify serotype replacement by non-vaccine serotypes and to monitor the overall impact of current and future vaccine programs on invasive pneumococcal disease in Australia, not only in young children but also in other age groups.

  2. ATLAS trigger operations: Monitoring with ``Xmon'' rate prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aukerman, Andrew; Hong, Tae Min

    2017-01-01

    We present the operations and online monitoring with the ``Xmon'' rate prediction system for the trigger system at the ATLAS Experiment. A two-level trigger system reduces the LHC's bunch-crossing rate, 40 MHz at design capacity, to an average recording rate of about 1 kHz, while maintaining a high efficiency of selecting events of interest. The Xmon system uses the luminosity value to predict trigger rates that are, in turn, compared with incoming rates. The predictions rely on past runs to parameterize the luminosity dependency of the event rate for a trigger algorithm. Some examples are given to illustrate the performance of the tool during recent operations.

  3. Predicting the Location and Spatial Extent of Submerged Coral Reef Habitat in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Bridge, Tom; Beaman, Robin; Done, Terry; Webster, Jody

    2012-01-01

    Aim Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef. Location Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Methods Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR. Results Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs. Main Conclusion Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High-quality bathymetry data can be used

  4. Social/Ethical Issues in Predictive Insider Threat Monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Zabriskie, Mariah

    2011-01-01

    Combining traditionally monitored cybersecurity data with other kinds of organizational data is one option for inferring the motivations of individuals, which may in turn allow early prediction and mitigation of insider threats. While unproven, some researchers believe that this combination of data may yield better results than either cybersecurity or organizational data would in isolation. However, this nontraditional approach creates a potential conflict between goals, such as conflicts between organizational security improvements and individual privacy considerations. There are many facets to debate. Should warning signs of a potential malicious insider be addressed before a malicious event has occurred to prevent harm to the organization and discourage the insider from violating the organization’s rules? Would intervention violate employee trust or legal guidelines? What about the possibilities of misuse? Predictive approaches cannot be validated a priori; false accusations can affect the career of the accused; and collection/monitoring of certain types of data may affect employee morale. In this chapter, we explore some of the social and ethical issues stemming from predictive insider threat monitoring and discuss ways that a predictive modeling approach brings to the forefront social and ethical issues that should be considered and resolved by stakeholders and communities of interest.

  5. Imaging proteomics for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Nazeri, Arash; Ganjgahi, Habib; Roostaei, Tina; Nichols, Thomas; Zarei, Mojtaba

    2014-11-15

    Proteomic and imaging markers have been widely studied as potential biomarkers for diagnosis, monitoring and prognosis of Alzheimer's disease. In this study, we used Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset and performed parallel independent component analysis on cross sectional and longitudinal proteomic and imaging data in order to identify the best proteomic model for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer disease (AD). We used plasma proteins measurement and imaging data from AD and healthy controls (HC) at the baseline and 1 year follow-up. Group comparisons at baseline and changes over 1 year were calculated for proteomic and imaging data. The results were fed into parallel independent component analysis in order to identify proteins that were associated with structural brain changes cross sectionally and longitudinally. Regression model was used to find the best model that can discriminate AD from HC, monitor AD and to predict MCI converters from non-converters. We showed that five proteins are associated with structural brain changes in the brain. These proteins could discriminate AD from HC with 57% specificity and 89% sensitivity. Four proteins whose change over 1 year were associated with brain structural changes could discriminate AD from HC with sensitivity of 93%, and specificity of 92%. This model predicted MCI conversion to AD in 2 years with 94% accuracy. This model has the highest accuracy in prediction of MCI conversion to AD within the ADNI-1 dataset. This study shows that combination of selected plasma protein levels and MR imaging is a useful method in identifying potential biomarker.

  6. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  7. Monitoring of wild birds for Newcastle disease virus in north Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Hoque, M A; Burgess, G W; Karo-Karo, D; Cheam, A L; Skerratt, L F

    2012-01-01

    surveillance programs for NDVs in northern Australia.

  8. Understanding invasion history and predicting invasive niches using genetic sequencing technology in Australia: case studies from Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae.

    PubMed

    Shaik, Razia S; Zhu, Xiaocheng; Clements, David R; Weston, Leslie A

    2016-01-01

    Part of the challenge in dealing with invasive plant species is that they seldom represent a uniform, static entity. Often, an accurate understanding of the history of plant introduction and knowledge of the real levels of genetic diversity present in species and populations of importance is lacking. Currently, the role of genetic diversity in promoting the successful establishment of invasive plants is not well defined. Genetic profiling of invasive plants should enhance our understanding of the dynamics of colonization in the invaded range. Recent advances in DNA sequencing technology have greatly facilitated the rapid and complete assessment of plant population genetics. Here, we apply our current understanding of the genetics and ecophysiology of plant invasions to recent work on Australian plant invaders from the Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae. The Cucurbitaceae study showed that both prickly paddy melon (Cucumis myriocarpus) and camel melon (Citrullus lanatus) were represented by only a single genotype in Australia, implying that each was probably introduced as a single introduction event. In contrast, a third invasive melon, Citrullus colocynthis, possessed a moderate level of genetic diversity in Australia and was potentially introduced to the continent at least twice. The Boraginaceae study demonstrated the value of comparing two similar congeneric species; one, Echium plantagineum, is highly invasive and genetically diverse, whereas the other, Echium vulgare, exhibits less genetic diversity and occupies a more limited ecological niche. Sequence analysis provided precise identification of invasive plant species, as well as information on genetic diversity and phylogeographic history. Improved sequencing technologies will continue to allow greater resolution of genetic relationships among invasive plant populations, thereby potentially improving our ability to predict the impact of these relationships upon future spread and better manage invaders possessing

  9. Understanding invasion history and predicting invasive niches using genetic sequencing technology in Australia: case studies from Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae

    PubMed Central

    Shaik, Razia S.; Zhu, Xiaocheng; Clements, David R.; Weston, Leslie A.

    2016-01-01

    Part of the challenge in dealing with invasive plant species is that they seldom represent a uniform, static entity. Often, an accurate understanding of the history of plant introduction and knowledge of the real levels of genetic diversity present in species and populations of importance is lacking. Currently, the role of genetic diversity in promoting the successful establishment of invasive plants is not well defined. Genetic profiling of invasive plants should enhance our understanding of the dynamics of colonization in the invaded range. Recent advances in DNA sequencing technology have greatly facilitated the rapid and complete assessment of plant population genetics. Here, we apply our current understanding of the genetics and ecophysiology of plant invasions to recent work on Australian plant invaders from the Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae. The Cucurbitaceae study showed that both prickly paddy melon (Cucumis myriocarpus) and camel melon (Citrullus lanatus) were represented by only a single genotype in Australia, implying that each was probably introduced as a single introduction event. In contrast, a third invasive melon, Citrullus colocynthis, possessed a moderate level of genetic diversity in Australia and was potentially introduced to the continent at least twice. The Boraginaceae study demonstrated the value of comparing two similar congeneric species; one, Echium plantagineum, is highly invasive and genetically diverse, whereas the other, Echium vulgare, exhibits less genetic diversity and occupies a more limited ecological niche. Sequence analysis provided precise identification of invasive plant species, as well as information on genetic diversity and phylogeographic history. Improved sequencing technologies will continue to allow greater resolution of genetic relationships among invasive plant populations, thereby potentially improving our ability to predict the impact of these relationships upon future spread and better manage invaders possessing

  10. Use of three monitoring approaches to manage a major Chrysosporum ovalisporum bloom in the Murray River, Australia, 2016.

    PubMed

    Crawford, Adam; Holliday, Jon; Merrick, Chester; Brayan, John; van Asten, Mark; Bowling, Lee

    2017-04-01

    An unusual bloom of Chrysosporum ovalisporum (basionym Aphanizomenon ovalisporum) occurred for the first time in the Murray River and distributary rivers in New South Wales, Australia, from mid-February to early June 2016. At its greatest extent, it contaminated a combined river length of ca. 2360 km. Chrysosporum ovalisporum usually comprised >99% of the total bloom biovolume at most locations sampled, which at times exceeded 40 mm(3) l(-1). The origins of the bloom were most likely reservoirs on the upper Murray River, with cyanobacterial-infested water released from them contaminating the river systems downstream. An integrated approach using three analytical methods: (1) identification and enumeration by microscopy, (2) multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), and (3) toxin analysis, was used to obtain data for the assessment of risk to water users and management of the bloom. qPCR indicated some cyrA and stxA genes responsible for cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxin biosynthesis respectively were present, but mostly below the level of quantification. No mcyE genes for microcystin biosynthesis were detected. Toxin analysis also revealed that cylindrospermopsin, saxitoxin and microcystin were all below detection. Lack of measurable toxicity in a species usually considered a cylindrospermopsin producer elsewhere meant the possibility of relaxing management guidelines; however, high (Red) alerts needed to be maintained due to risk to water users from other biohazards potentially produced by the cyanobacteria such as contact irritants. A three-tiered monitoring strategy is suggested for monitoring cyanobacterial blooms to provide enhanced data for bloom management.

  11. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

    2015-06-01

    Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  12. Predictive model for the growth of spoilage bacteria on modified atmosphere packaged Atlantic salmon produced in Australia.

    PubMed

    Powell, S M; Ratkowsky, D A; Tamplin, M L

    2015-05-01

    Most existing models for the spoilage of modified atmosphere packed Atlantic salmon are based on the growth of the spoilage organism Photobacterium phosphoreum. However, there is evidence that this organism is not the specific spoilage organism on salmon produced and packaged in Australia. We developed a predictive model for the growth of bacteria in Australian-produced Atlantic salmon stored under modified atmosphere conditions (30-98% carbon dioxide in nitrogen) at refrigeration temperatures (0-10 °C). As expected, both higher levels of carbon dioxide and lower temperatures decreased the observed growth rates of the total population. A Bělehrádek-type model for growth rate fitted the data best with an acceptably low root mean square error. At low temperatures (∼0 °C) the growth rates in this study were similar to those predicted by other models but at higher temperatures (∼10 °C) the growth rates were significantly lower in the current study.

  13. Climate predictions accelerate decline for threatened macrozamia cycads from queensland, australia.

    PubMed

    Laidlaw, Melinda J; Forster, Paul I

    2012-12-14

    Changes in the potential habitat of five allopatric species of threatened Macrozamia cycads under scenarios of increased ambient temperature were examined. A lack of seed dispersal, poor recruitment, low seedling survival, obligate pollinator mutualisms and continued habitat loss have led to extant populations being largely restricted to refugia. Models predict that the area of suitable habitat will further contract and move upslope, resulting in a reduced incidence within protected areas with increasing annual mean temperature. Areas of potential habitat for all five species are also predicted to become increasingly isolated from one another, further reducing the exchange between metapopulations and subpopulations, exacerbating existing threatening processes.

  14. Environmental conditions predict helminth prevalence in red foxes in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Dybing, Narelle A; Fleming, Patricia A; Adams, Peter J

    2013-12-01

    Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are the most common and widely distributed wild carnivore worldwide. These predators harbour a wide range of parasites, many of which may have important conservation, agricultural and zoonotic repercussions. This project investigated the occurrence of helminth parasites from the intestines of 147 red foxes across 14 sampling localities of southwest Western Australia. Helminth parasites were detected in 58% of fox intestines: Dipylidium caninum (27.7% of foxes), Uncinaria stenocephala (18.2%), Toxocara canis (14.9%), Spirometra erinaceieuropaei (5.4%), Toxascaris leonina (4.7%), Taenia serialis (1.4%), Taenia hydatigena (0.7%), unidentified Taenia spp. (4.1%), Brachylaima cribbi (0.7%), Plagiorchis maculosus (0.7%) and an Acanthocephalan; family Centrorhynchidae (2.1%). Importantly, two cestodes of agricultural significance, Echinococcus granulosus and Taenia ovis, were not detected in red foxes in this study, despite the presence of suitable intermediate hosts in the diets of these animals. Parasite richness varied from 1-3 species per host, with average parasite number varying from 1-39 worms (across all helminth species). Regression analyses indicated that the presence of four helminth parasites was related to various environmental factors. The presence of S. erinaceieuropaei (p < 0.001), T. leonina (p < 0.01) and U. stenocephala (p < 0.01) was positively associated with average relative humidity which may affect the longevity of infective stages in the environment. The presence of S. erinaceieuropaei and U. stenocephala (p < 0.001) was positively associated with 5-y-average minimum temperature which could reflect poor survival of infective stages through cold winter conditions. The presence of T. canis and U. stenocephala (p < 0.001) was positively associated with the percentage cover of native vegetation at each sampling location, which is likely to reflect transmission from native prey species acting as paratenic hosts

  15. Continuous event monitoring via a Bayesian predictive approach.

    PubMed

    Di, Jianing; Wang, Daniel; Brashear, H Robert; Dragalin, Vladimir; Krams, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In clinical trials, continuous monitoring of event incidence rate plays a critical role in making timely decisions affecting trial outcome. For example, continuous monitoring of adverse events protects the safety of trial participants, while continuous monitoring of efficacy events helps identify early signals of efficacy or futility. Because the endpoint of interest is often the event incidence associated with a given length of treatment duration (e.g., incidence proportion of an adverse event with 2 years of dosing), assessing the event proportion before reaching the intended treatment duration becomes challenging, especially when the event onset profile evolves over time with accumulated exposure. In particular, in the earlier part of the study, ignoring censored subjects may result in significant bias in estimating the cumulative event incidence rate. Such a problem is addressed using a predictive approach in the Bayesian framework. In the proposed approach, experts' prior knowledge about both the frequency and timing of the event occurrence is combined with observed data. More specifically, during any interim look, each event-free subject will be counted with a probability that is derived using prior knowledge. The proposed approach is particularly useful in early stage studies for signal detection based on limited information. But it can also be used as a tool for safety monitoring (e.g., data monitoring committee) during later stage trials. Application of the approach is illustrated using a case study where the incidence rate of an adverse event is continuously monitored during an Alzheimer's disease clinical trial. The performance of the proposed approach is also assessed and compared with other Bayesian and frequentist methods via simulation.

  16. The Wake Vortex Prediction and Monitoring System WSVBS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerz, T.; Holzäpfel, F.

    2009-09-01

    Design and performance of the Wake Vortex Prediction and Monitoring System WSVBS are described. The WSVBS has been developed to tactically increase airport capacity for approach and landing on closely-spaced parallel runways. It is thought to dynamically adjust aircraft separations dependent on weather conditions and the resulting wake vortex behaviour without compromising safety. The WSVBS consists of components that consider meteorological conditions, aircraft glide path adherence, aircraft parameter combinations representing aircraft weight categories, the resulting wake-vortex behaviour, the surrounding safety areas, wake vortex monitoring, and the integration of the predictions into the arrival manager. The WSVBS has been designed and applied to Frankfurt Airport. However, its components are generic and can well be adjusted to any runway system and or airport location. The prediction horizon is larger than 45 min (as required by air traffic control) and updated every 10 minutes. It predicts the concepts of operations and procedures established by DFS and it further predicts additional temporal separations for in-trail traffic. A specific feature of the WSVBS is the usage of both measured and predicted meteorological quantities as input to wake vortex prediction. In ground proximity where the probability to encounter wake vortices is highest, the wake predictor employs measured environmental parameters that yield superior prediction results. For the less critical part aloft, which can not be monitored completely by instrumentation, the meteorological parameters are taken from dedicated numerical terminal weather predictions. The wake vortex model predicts envelopes for vortex position and strength which implicitly consider the quality of the meteorological input data. This feature is achieved by a training procedure which employs statistics of measured and predicted meteorological parameters and the resulting wake vortex behaviour. The WSVBS combines various

  17. Dynamic computing resource allocation in online flood monitoring and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, S.; Podhoranyi, M.; Vavrik, R.; Portero, A.

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents tools and methodologies for dynamic allocation of high performance computing resources during operation of the Floreon+ online flood monitoring and prediction system. The resource allocation is done throughout the execution of supported simulations to meet the required service quality levels for system operation. It also ensures flexible reactions to changing weather and flood situations, as it is not economically feasible to operate online flood monitoring systems in the full performance mode during non-flood seasons. Different service quality levels are therefore described for different flooding scenarios, and the runtime manager controls them by allocating only minimal resources currently expected to meet the deadlines. Finally, an experiment covering all presented aspects of computing resource allocation in rainfall-runoff and Monte Carlo uncertainty simulation is performed for the area of the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic.

  18. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES.

    SciTech Connect

    LOFARO,R.; SOO,P.; VILLARAN,M.; GROVE,E.

    2001-03-29

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed.

  19. Mortality of Inshore Marine Mammals in Eastern Australia Is Predicted by Freshwater Discharge and Air Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Meager, Justin J.; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality. PMID:24740149

  20. Mortality of inshore marine mammals in eastern Australia is predicted by freshwater discharge and air temperature.

    PubMed

    Meager, Justin J; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality.

  1. Causal simulation and sensor planning in predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.

    1989-01-01

    Two issues are addressed which arise in the task of detecting anomalous behavior in complex systems with numerous sensor channels: how to adjust alarm thresholds dynamically, within the changing operating context of the system, and how to utilize sensors selectively, so that nominal operation can be verified reliably without processing a prohibitive amount of sensor data. The approach involves simulation of a causal model of the system, which provides information on expected sensor values, and on dependencies between predicted events, useful in assessing the relative importance of events so that sensor resources can be allocated effectively. The potential applicability of this work to the execution monitoring of robot task plans is briefly discussed.

  2. Remotely Monitoring Change in Vegetation Cover on the Montebello Islands, Western Australia, in Response to Introduced Rodent Eradication

    PubMed Central

    Lohr, Cheryl; Van Dongen, Ricky; Huntley, Bart; Gibson, Lesley; Morris, Keith

    2014-01-01

    The Montebello archipelago consists of 218 islands; 80 km from the north-west coast of Western Australia. Before 1912 the islands had a diverse terrestrial fauna. By 1952 several species were locally extinct. Between 1996 and 2011 rodents and cats were eradicated, and 5 mammal and 2 bird species were translocated to the islands. Monitoring of the broader terrestrial ecosystem over time has been limited. We used 20 dry-season Landsat images from 1988 to 2013 and estimation of green fraction cover in nadir photographs taken at 27 sites within the Montebello islands and six sites on Thevenard Island to assess change in vegetation density over time. Analysis of data averaged across the 26-year period suggests that 719 ha out of 2169 ha have increased in vegetation cover by up to 32%, 955 ha have remained stable and 0.6 ha have declined in vegetation cover. Over 492 ha (22%) had no vegetation cover at any time during the period analysed. Chronological clustering analysis identified two breakpoints in the average vegetation cover data occurring in 1997 and 2003, near the beginning and end of the rodent eradication activities. On many islands vegetation cover was declining prior to 1996 but increased after rodents were eradicated from the islands. Data for North West and Trimouille islands were analysed independently because of the potential confounding effect of native fauna being introduced to these islands. Mala (Lagorchestes hirsutus) and Shark Bay mice (Pseudomys fieldi) both appear to suppress native plant recruitment but not to the same degree as introduced rodents. Future research should assess whether the increase in vegetation cover on the Montebello islands is due to an increase in native or introduced plants. PMID:25436454

  3. Predicting career development in hard-of-hearing adolescents in Australia.

    PubMed

    Punch, Renée; Creed, Peter A; Hyde, Merv

    2005-01-01

    This article reports on a study investigating the career development of hard-of-hearing high school students attending regular classes with itinerant teacher support. We compared 65 hard-of-hearing students with a matched group of normally hearing peers on measures of career maturity, career indecision, perceived career barriers, and three variables associated with social cognitive career theory career decision-making self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and goals. In addition, the predictors of career maturity and career indecision were tested in both groups. Results indicated that (a) the two groups did not differ on measures of career maturity, (b) the SCCT variables were less predictive of career behaviors for the hard-of-hearing students than for the normally hearing students, and (c) perceived career barriers related to hearing loss predicted lower scores on career maturity attitude for the hard-of-hearing students. These findings are discussed in the context of career education and counseling interventions that may benefit young people who are hard of hearing.

  4. Assessing the repeatability of terrestrial laser scanning for monitoring gully topography: A case study from Aratula, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwin, Nicholas Robert; Armston, John; Stiller, Isaac; Muir, Jasmine

    2016-06-01

    Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) technology is a powerful tool for quantifying gully morphology and monitoring change over time. This is due to the high sampling density, sub-centimetre positional accuracies (x, y, z), flexibility of survey configurations and ability to link multiple TLS scans together. However, to ensure correct interpretation of results, research is needed to test the repeatability of TLS derived products to quantify the accuracy and separate 'false' from 'true' geomorphic change. In this study, we use the RIEGL VZ400 scanner to test the repeatability of TLS datasets for mapping gully morphology. We then quantify change following a rainfall event of approximately 100 mm. Our study site, located in south-east Queensland, Australia was chosen to be challenging from a repeatability perspective with high topographic variability. The TLS data capture involved three sets of linked scans: one survey pre-rainfall, to be compared to two surveys post-rainfall acquired on consecutive days. Change is considered negligible in the two post-rainfall scans to test survey repeatability. To verify TLS accuracy, an independent dataset of gully extent and spot heights were acquired using traditional total station techniques. Results confirm that the TLS datasets can be registered multi-temporally at sub-centimetre levels of accuracy in three dimensions. Total station and TLS elevation samples showed strong agreement with a mean error and standard deviation (SD) of residuals equal to 0.052 and 0.047 m, respectively (n = 889). Significantly, our repeatability tests found that return type and pulse deviation influence the accuracy and repeatability of DEMs in gully environments. Analysis of consecutive day datasets showed that DEMs derived from first return data recorded 40% higher SD of residual error than DEMs using multiple return data. A significant empirical relationship between pulse deviation and the variance of residuals for repeat DEMs is also shown (r2 = 0

  5. Potential Wildlife Sentinels for Monitoring the Endemic Spread of Human Buruli Ulcer in South-East Australia

    PubMed Central

    Carson, Connor; Lavender, Caroline J.; Handasyde, Kathrine A.; O'Brien, Carolyn R.; Hewitt, Nick; Johnson, Paul D. R.; Fyfe, Janet A. M.

    2014-01-01

    The last 20 years has seen a significant series of outbreaks of Buruli/Bairnsdale Ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, in temperate south-eastern Australia (state of Victoria). Here, the prevailing view of M. ulcerans as an aquatic pathogen has been questioned by recent research identifying native wildlife as potential terrestrial reservoirs of infection; specifically, tree-dwelling common ringtail and brushtail possums. In that previous work, sampling of environmental possum faeces detected a high prevalence of M. ulcerans DNA in established endemic areas for human BU on the Bellarine Peninsula, compared with non-endemic areas. Here, we report research from an emergent BU focus recently identified on the Mornington Peninsula, confirming associations between human BU and the presence of the aetiological agent in possum faeces, detected by real-time PCR targeting M. ulcerans IS2404, IS2606 and KR. Mycobacterium ulcerans DNA was detected in 20/216 (9.3%) ground collected ringtail possum faecal samples and 4/6 (66.6%) brushtail possum faecal samples. The distribution of the PCR positive possum faecal samples and human BU cases was highly focal: there was a significant non-random cluster of 16 M. ulcerans positive possum faecal sample points detected by spatial scan statistics (P<0.0001) within a circle of radius 0.42 km, within which were located the addresses of 6/12 human cases reported from the area to date; moreover, the highest sample PCR signal strength (equivalent to ≥106 organisms per gram of faeces) was found in a sample point located within this cluster radius. Corresponding faecal samples collected from closely adjacent BU-free areas were predominantly negative. Possums may be useful sentinels to predict endemic spread of human BU in Victoria, for public health planning. Further research is needed to establish whether spatial associations represent evidence of direct or indirect transmission between possums and humans, and the mechanism by which

  6. A novel bridge scour monitoring and prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Michalis, Panagiotis; Zhang, Hanqing

    2015-04-01

    obtaining real time data, via novel electromagnetic sensors monitoring scour depth. Once the model is trained with data representative of the new system, bridge scour prediction can be performed for high/design flows or floods.

  7. Northern Australia

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-16

    article title:  Tropical Northern Australia     View Larger Image ... Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) images of tropical northern Australia were acquired on June 1, 2000 (Terra orbit 2413) during the long dry ...

  8. A Database Approach for Predicting and Monitoring Baked Anode Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauzon-Gauthier, Julien; Duchesne, Carl; Tessier, Jayson

    2012-11-01

    The baked anode quality control strategy currently used by most carbon plants based on testing anode core samples in the laboratory is inadequate for facing increased raw material variability. The low core sampling rate limited by lab capacity and the common practice of reporting averaged properties based on some anode population mask a significant amount of individual anode variability. In addition, lab results are typically available a few weeks after production and the anodes are often already set in the reduction cells preventing early remedial actions when necessary. A database approach is proposed in this work to develop a soft-sensor for predicting individual baked anode properties at the end of baking cycle. A large historical database including raw material properties, process operating parameters and anode core data was collected from a modern Alcoa plant. A multivariate latent variable PLS regression method was used for analyzing the large database and building the soft-sensor model. It is shown that the general low frequency trends in most anode physical and mechanical properties driven by raw material changes are very well captured by the model. Improvements in the data infrastructure (instrumentation, sampling frequency and location) will be necessary for predicting higher frequency variations in individual baked anode properties. This paper also demonstrates how multivariate latent variable models can be interpreted against process knowledge and used for real-time process monitoring of carbon plants, and detection of faults and abnormal operation.

  9. Investigation of the mud crab (Scylla serrata) as a potential bio-monitoring species for tropical coastal marine environments of Australia.

    PubMed

    van Oosterom, Jake; Codi King, Susan; Negri, Andrew; Humphrey, Craig; Mondon, Julie

    2010-02-01

    Mud crabs, Scylla serrata, were sampled from four estuaries (the Normanby, Herbert, Burdekin and Fitzroy Rivers) along the coast of northern Queensland, Australia, representing a pollution gradient from low to high contamination based upon previous chemical monitoring. Four biomarkers; glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activity, cholinesterase (ChE) inhibition and the urinary metabolite concentrations of naphthalene (NPH) and benzo-a-pyrene (BaP) were evaluated in S. serrata hepatopancreas, haemolymph and urine. Site-specific evidence of elevated GST activity and BaP metabolite concentrations and significant ChE inhibition was detected. Biomarker responses from this field study provide evidence of contaminant exposure of S. serrata from river estuaries along the coast of northern Queensland and indicate that further investigation is warranted. Based on the current results, and with further work on characterising the dose-response and seasonal variation in this species, mud crabs have great potential as indicator species for water quality and ecosystem monitoring programs across tropical coastal regions of Australia.

  10. Artificial neural network model for earthquake prediction with radon monitoring.

    PubMed

    Külahci, Fatih; Inceöz, Murat; Doğru, Mahmut; Aksoy, Ercan; Baykara, Oktay

    2009-01-01

    Apart from the linear monitoring studies concerning the relationship between radon and earthquake, an artificial neural networks (ANNs) model approach is presented starting out from non-linear changes of the eight different parameters during the earthquake occurrence. A three-layer Levenberg-Marquardt feedforward learning algorithm is used to model the earthquake prediction process in the East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS). The proposed ANN system employs individual training strategy with fixed-weight and supervised models leading to estimations. The average relative error between the magnitudes of the earthquakes acquired by ANN and measured data is about 2.3%. The relative error between the test and earthquake data varies between 0% and 12%. In addition, the factor analysis was applied on all data and the model output values to see the statistical variation. The total variance of 80.18% was explained with four factors by this analysis. Consequently, it can be concluded that ANN approach is a potential alternative to other models with complex mathematical operations.

  11. Reliability and utility of citizen science reef monitoring data collected by Reef Check Australia, 2002-2015.

    PubMed

    Done, Terence; Roelfsema, Chris; Harvey, Andrew; Schuller, Laura; Hill, Jocelyn; Schläppy, Marie-Lise; Lea, Alexandra; Bauer-Civiello, Anne; Loder, Jennifer

    2017-04-15

    Reef Check Australia (RCA) has collected data on benthic composition and cover at >70 sites along >1000km of Australia's Queensland coast from 2002 to 2015. This paper quantifies the accuracy, precision and power of RCA benthic composition data, to guide its application and interpretation. A simulation study established that the inherent accuracy of the Reef Check point sampling protocol is high (<±7% error absolute), in the range of estimates of benthic cover from 1% to 50%. A field study at three reef sites indicated that, despite minor observer- and deployment-related biases, the protocol does reliably document moderate ecological changes in coral communities. The error analyses were then used to guide the interpretation of inter-annual variability and long term trends at three study sites in RCA's major 2002-2015 data series for the Queensland coast.

  12. Student Metacognitive Monitoring: Predicting Test Achievement from Judgment Accuracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valdez, Alfred

    2013-01-01

    Metacognitive monitoring processes have been shown to be critical determinants of human learning. Metacognitive monitoring consist of various knowledge estimates that enable learners to engage in self-regulatory processes important for both the acquisition of knowledge and the monitoring of one's knowledge when engaged in assessment. This study…

  13. Application of GNSS-RTK derived topographical maps for rapid environmental monitoring: a case study of Jack Finnery Lake (Perth, Australia).

    PubMed

    Schloderer, Glen; Bingham, Matthew; Awange, Joseph L; Fleming, Kevin M

    2011-09-01

    In environmental monitoring, environmental impact assessments and environmental audits, topographical maps play an essential role in providing a means by which the locations of sampling sites may be selected, in assisting with the interpretation of physical features, and in indicating the impact or potential impact on an area due to changes in the system being monitored (e.g., spatially changing features such as wetlands). Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are hereby presented as a rapid method for monitoring spatial changes to support environmental monitoring decisions and policies. To validate the GNSS-based method, a comparison is made of results from a small-scale topographic survey using radio-based real-time kinematic GNSS (GNSS-RTK) and total station survey methods at Jack Finnery Lake, Perth, Australia. The accuracies achieved by the total station in this study were 2 cm horizontally and 6 cm vertically, while the GNSS-RTK also achieved an accuracy of 2 cm horizontally, but only 28 cm vertically. While the GNSS-RTK measurements were less accurate in the height component compared to those from the total station method, it is still capable of achieving accuracies sufficient for a topographic map at a scale of 1:1,750 that could support environmental monitoring tasks such as identifying spatial changes in small water bodies or wetlands. The time taken to perform the survey using GNSS-RTK, however, was much shorter compared to the total station method, thereby making it quite suitable for monitoring spatial changes within an environmental context, e.g., dynamic mining activities that require rapid surveys and the updating of the monitored data at regular intervals.

  14. A summary of fault modelling and predictive health monitoring of rolling element bearings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Thalji, Idriss; Jantunen, Erkki

    2015-08-01

    The rolling element bearing is one of the most critical components that determine the machinery health and its remaining lifetime in modern production machinery. Robust Predictive Health Monitoring tools are needed to guarantee the healthy state of rolling element bearing s during the operation. A Predictive Health Monitoring tool indicates the upcoming failures which provide sufficient lead time for maintenance planning. The Predictive Health Monitoring tool aims to monitor the deterioration i.e. wear evolution rather than just detecting the defects. The Predictive Health Monitoring procedures contain detection, diagnosis and prognosis analysis, which are required to extract the features related to the faulty rolling element bearing and estimate the remaining useful lifetime. The purpose of this study is to review the Predictive Health Monitoring methods and explore their capabilities, advantages and disadvantage in monitoring rolling element bearings. Therefore, the study provides a critical review of the Predictive Health Monitoring methods of the entire defect evolution process i.e. over the whole lifetime and suggests enhancements for rolling element bearing monitoring.

  15. Tectonic events, sequence stratigraphy and prediction of petroleum play elements in the Cretaceous and Tertiary of the northern Carnarvon Basin, north west shelf, Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Romine, K.K.; Durrant, J.D.

    1996-12-31

    The Carnarvon Basin is one of Australia`s most prolific oil and gas provinces. A recent Paleocene discovery has initiated a shift in exploration interest from traditional Jurassic/Triassic plays to the younger Cretaceous and Tertiary section. To improve play element prediction, a sequence stratigraphic study has been completed, utilizing newly acquired, regional high-resolution seismic data and 80 wells. The occurrence and distribution of the key play elements, reservoir, source and seal, is controlled by the interaction of tectonic subsidence, eustasy and paleogeography, with traps and migration pathways set up and modified by regional tectonic events. For example, a major rifting event commenced in the latest Kimmeridgian-Tithonian that resulted in structuring of older Jurassic sediments and initiation of seafloor spreading in the adjacent Cuvier-Gascoyne Abyssal Plain in the Valanginian. This event was accompanied by a dramatic fall in eustasy that initiated the deposition of high-quality reservoir sandstones of the Tithonian-Valanginian age Barrow Delta. The post-rift phase of thermal cooling and rapid subsidence resulted in transgression, accompanied by deposition of backstepping parasequences of the Mardie Greensand, a potential thief zone and reservoir, and culminated in maximum transgression and deposition of seal and source facies of the Muclerong Shale. The improved sequence stratigraphic framework established in this study provides a predictive tool for the development and assessment of new plays.

  16. Surveillance of Space in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newsam, G.

    operating in stations at Yarragadee, Western Australia and Mt Stromlo, Australian Capital Territory. Recently, however, Australia has also agreed to host a node of AFRL's Extended HANDS telescope network in Learmonth, Western Australia, and discussions are underway with researchers in Australian academia about also participating in this research program. In the RF regime, however, DSTO has substantial HF and microwave radar programs, elements of which could be readily adapted to surveillance of space. Proposals have already been developed internally within both programs for various forms of space surveillance systems including both broad area surveillance and imaging along with some very initial technology concept demonstrator systems. Recently proposals have also been floated to substantially increase Australia's civilian space surveillance programs including the Ionospheric Prediction Service's longstanding program to monitor the ionosphere and space weather, meteor radars and other systems. Finally Australia's bid to host the international Square Kilometre Array radio telescope has already generated concrete commitments to establish several very substantial RF arrays in Western Australia that may also provide instruments of unprecedented sensitivity and resolution for surveillance of space. The paper will survey these technology development programs and associated progress on integrating them into some sort of national program for space situational awareness.

  17. PREDICT: Privacy and Security Enhancing Dynamic Information Monitoring

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-03

    aggregation, secure multiparty communication protocols were developed and evaluated [22]. These protocols permit the evaluation of certain functions...Li Xiong, Privacy Enhancing Dynamic Information Collection and Monitoring, Invited talk, Kyoto University, Kyoto , Japan, July 2015. [3] Li Xiong

  18. Selecting optimum groundwater monitoring stations for earthquake observation and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, H.; Woo, N. C.

    2011-12-01

    In Korea, the National Groundwater Monitoring Network (NGMN), consisted of a total of 327 stations around the country up to date, has been established and operated to monitor the background level and quality of ground water since 1995. From some of the monitoring wells, we identified abnormal changes in groundwater due to earthquakes. Then, this project was initiated with the following objectives: a) to identify and characterize groundwater changes due to earthquakes from the NGMN wells, and b) to suggest groundwater monitoring wells that can be used as supplementary monitoring stations for present seismic network. To accomplish the objectives, we need to identify previous responding history of each well to the other earthquakes, and the well's hydrogeological setting. Groundwater responses to earthquake events are identified as the direction of water-level movement (rise/fall), the amount of absolute changes, and the time for recovery to the previous level. Then, the distribution of responded wells is analyzed for their locations with GIS tools. Finally, statistical analyses perform to identify the optimum monitoring stations, considering geological features and hydrogeological settings of the stations and the earthquake epicenters. In this presentation, we report the results of up-to-date study as a part of the above-mentioned program.

  19. Prediction monitoring and evaluation program; a progress report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunter, R.N.; Derr, J.S.

    1978-01-01

    As part of an attempt to separate useful predictions from inaccurate guesses, we have kept score on earthquake predictions from all sources brought to our attention over the past year and a half. The program was outlined in "Earthquake Prediction;Fact and Fallacy" by Roger N. Hunter (Earthquake Information Bulletin, vol. 8, no. 5, September-October 1976, p. 24-25). The program attracted a great deal of public attention, and, as a result, our files now contain over 2500 predictions from more than 230 different people. 

  20. Excess seawater nutrients, enlarged algal symbiont densities and bleaching sensitive reef locations: 2. A regional-scale predictive model for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, Scott A; Heron, Scott F; Brodie, Jon E; Done, Terence J; Masiri, Itsara; Hinrichs, Saskia

    2017-01-15

    A spatial risk assessment model is developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia) that helps identify reef locations at higher or lower risk of coral bleaching in summer heat-wave conditions. The model confirms the considerable benefit of discriminating nutrient-enriched areas that contain corals with enlarged (suboptimal) symbiont densities for the purpose of identifying bleaching-sensitive reef locations. The benefit of the new system-level understanding is showcased in terms of: (i) improving early-warning forecasts of summer bleaching risk, (ii) explaining historical bleaching patterns, (iii) testing the bleaching-resistant quality of the current marine protected area (MPA) network (iv) identifying routinely monitored coral health attributes, such as the tissue energy reserves and skeletal growth characteristics (viz. density and extension rates) that correlate with bleaching resistant reef locations, and (v) targeting region-specific water quality improvement strategies that may increase reef-scale coral health and bleaching resistance.

  1. Community monitoring for youth violence surveillance: testing a prediction model.

    PubMed

    Henry, David B; Dymnicki, Allison; Kane, Candice; Quintana, Elena; Cartland, Jenifer; Bromann, Kimberly; Bhatia, Shaun; Wisnieski, Elise

    2014-08-01

    Predictive epidemiology is an embryonic field that involves developing informative signatures for disorder and tracking them using surveillance methods. Through such efforts assistance can be provided to the planning and implementation of preventive interventions. Believing that certain minor crimes indicative of gang activity are informative signatures for the emergence of serious youth violence in communities, in this study we aim to predict outbreaks of violence in neighborhoods from pre-existing levels and changes in reports of minor offenses. We develop a prediction equation that uses publicly available neighborhood-level data on disorderly conduct, vandalism, and weapons violations to predict neighborhoods likely to have increases in serious violent crime. Data for this study were taken from the Chicago Police Department ClearMap reporting system, which provided data on index and non-index crimes for each of the 844 Chicago census tracts. Data were available in three month segments for a single year (fall 2009, winter, spring, and summer 2010). Predicted change in aggravated battery and overall violent crime correlated significantly with actual change. The model was evaluated by comparing alternative models using randomly selected training and test samples, producing favorable results with reference to overfitting, seasonal variation, and spatial autocorrelation. A prediction equation based on winter and spring levels of the predictors had area under the curve ranging from .65 to .71 for aggravated battery, and .58 to .69 for overall violent crime. We discuss future development of such a model and its potential usefulness in violence prevention and community policing.

  2. Predicting Activity Energy Expenditure Using the Actical[R] Activity Monitor

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heil, Daniel P.

    2006-01-01

    This study developed algorithms for predicting activity energy expenditure (AEE) in children (n = 24) and adults (n = 24) from the Actical[R] activity monitor. Each participant performed 10 activities (supine resting, three sitting, three house cleaning, and three locomotion) while wearing monitors on the ankle, hip, and wrist; AEE was computed…

  3. Interactions of Team Mental Models and Monitoring Behaviors Predict Team Performance in Simulated Anesthesia Inductions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burtscher, Michael J.; Kolbe, Michaela; Wacker, Johannes; Manser, Tanja

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated how two team mental model properties (similarity vs. accuracy) and two forms of monitoring behavior (team vs. systems) interacted to predict team performance in anesthesia. In particular, we were interested in whether the relationship between monitoring behavior and team performance was moderated by team…

  4. EPA perspective - exposure and effects prediction and monitoring

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk-based decisions for environmental chemicals often rely on estimates of human exposure and biological response. Biomarkers have proven a useful empirical tool for evaluating exposure and hazard predictions. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Preventio...

  5. Earth Rotation Monitoring, UT1 Determinaiton and Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-20

    article. 2011 Metrologia 48 S165 (http://iopscience.iop.org/0026-1394/48/4/S06) Download details: IP Address: 138.162.8.57 The article was downloaded...unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Metrologia 48 (2011) S165?S170 14. ABSTRACT Monitoring the Earth?s rotation angle is essential in various domains...ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 IOP PUBLISHING METROLOGIA Metrologia 48

  6. In Brief: Unlocking Australia's oil and gas reserves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-11-01

    A collaboration to unlock stranded offshore oil and gas reserves through improved underwater pipeline design was launched in Perth, Australia, on 31 October. Called the Wealth From Oceans National Research Flagship's Collaboration Cluster on Subsea Pipelines, the A$11 million program brings together the research capabilities of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and six universities. With more than 80% of Australia's gas resources likely lying as far as 300 kilometers offshore at a depth greater than 1 kilometer, Flagship director Kate Wilson said that realizing the full potential of these resources requires developing economically viable and environmentally sound transportation technologies. ``Projects will investigate seabed characterization and morphology, structural integrity, pipeline monitoring, geohazards, and full-life reliability. This will involve everything from sophisticated computer modeling and seafloor movement prediction to understanding tsunami effects and exploring the use of autonomous underwater and remotely operated vehicles.''

  7. Monitoring the Immune Competence of Cancer Patients to Predict Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Serena; Kohrt, Holbrook; Maecker, Holden T.

    2014-01-01

    A new era of cancer immunotherapy has brought not only successful cancer vaccines but also immunomodulators, such as those that target checkpoint blockade in order to induce endogenous host immune responses. However, the immune system of cancer patients can be compromised through multiple means, including immune suppression by the tumor and by prior therapies such as chemotherapy and radiation. Therefore, a comprehensive means of assessing patient immunocompetence would seem helpful for determining whether patients are ready to benefit from immunotherapy, and perhaps even which immunotherapy might be most appropriate for them. Unfortunately, there are no standardized tests for immune competence, nor is there agreement on what to measure and what will be predictive of outcome. In this review, we will discuss the technologies and assays that might be most useful for this purpose. We argue for a comprehensive approach that should maximize the chances of developing predictive biomarkers for eventual clinical use. PMID:24487923

  8. Coronas-F Orbit Monitoring and Re-Entry Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ivanov, N. M.; Kolyuka, Yu. F.; Afanasieva, T. I.; Gridchina, T. A.

    2007-01-01

    Russian scientific satellite CORONAS-F was launched on July, 31, 2001. The object was inserted in near-circular orbit with the inclination 82.5deg and a mean altitude approx. 520 km. Due to the upper atmosphere drag CORONAS-F was permanently descended and as a result on December, 6, 2005 it has finished the earth-orbital flight, having lifetime in space approx. 4.5 years. The satellite structural features and its flight attitude control led to the significant variations of its ballistic coefficient during the flight. It was a cause of some specific difficulties in the fulfillment of the ballistic and navigation support of this space vehicle flight. Besides the main mission objective CORONAS-F also has been selected by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) as a target object for the next regular international re-entry test campaign on a program of surveillance and re-entry prediction for the hazard space objects within their de-orbiting phases. Spacecraft (S/C) CORONAS-F kept its working state right up to the end of the flight - down to the atmosphere entry. This fact enabled to realization of the additional research experiments, concerning with an estimation of the atmospheric density within the low earth orbits (LEO) of the artificial satellites, and made possible to continue track the S/C during final phase of its flight by means of Russian regular command & tracking system, used for it control. Thus there appeared a unique possibility of using for tracking S/C at its de-orbiting phase not only passive radar facilities, belonging to the space surveillance systems and traditionally used for support of the IADC re-entry test campaigns, but also more precise active trajectory radio-tracking facilities from the ground control complex (GCC) applied for this object. Under the corresponding decision of the Russian side such capability of additional high-precise tracking control of the CORONAS-F flight in this period of time has been implemented

  9. Adverse events following immunisation with bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination: baseline data to inform monitoring in Australia following introduction of new unregistered BCG vaccine.

    PubMed

    Hendry, Alexandra J; Dey, Aditi; Beard, Frank H; Khandaker, Gulam; Hill, Richard; Macartney, Kristine K

    2016-12-24

    In recent years there has been a global shortage of bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine and, from September 2012, unregistered vaccines have needed to be used in Australia (a Danish product initially until the end of 2015, and a Polish product used in some jurisdictions from early 2016). We examined rates and types of adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) with BCG vaccine reported to the Therapeutic Goods Administration between 2009 and 2014 in children aged less than 7 years. Reporting rates of AEFI with BCG vaccine increased from 87 per 100,000 doses (registered Sanofi Pasteur product) in 2009 to 201 per 100,000 doses (unregistered Danish Statens Serum Institute product) in 2014, with Victoria having the highest rate each year. Substantial variation between jurisdictions exists, suggesting differential reporting of BCG vaccine doses administered and/or BCG vaccine-related AEFI. The most commonly reported reactions were abscess (31%), injection site reaction (27%) and lymphadenopathy/lymphadenitis (17%). This study provides baseline data on BCG vaccine safety to inform surveillance. Given the current use of unregistered vaccines in the context of vaccine supply issues, improved recording of both administered BCG vaccine doses and the reporting of BCG vaccine-related AEFI are required to facilitate close monitoring of vaccine safety.

  10. Southeastern Australia

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-16

    ... SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument onboard NASA's Terra satellite. The year 2002 was one of Australia's hottest and driest on record, ... These data products were generated from a portion of the imagery acquired during Terra orbits 14999 and 16858. The panels cover an area ...

  11. Reducing the predictive uncertainty associated with groundwater management decision-making in the Perth regional aquifer system of Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siade, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    The Perth Regional Aquifer Model (PRAMS) framework has been used for about a decade now to evaluate the potential anthropogenic impacts associated with management decisions that affect Perth's groundwater resources. A great wealth of data, expertise and numerical analysis have gone into the development of PRAMS over the years. However, there has been little quantitative work conducted on systemically addressing the uncertainty in the model's structure and predictions. PRAMS is designed to make a variety of regional and local-scale predictions and, both the nature and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with these predictions can vary significantly. A primary prediction to be addressed using the PRAMS framework, will be the effects of various deep-aquifer groundwater management scenarios on both the environmental and social concerns surrounding the superficial aquifer, which supports sensitive wetlands, and the negative impacts of seawater intrusion into the deep aquifers. A particular model-structure component that greatly affects the predictions associated with deep-aquifer groundwater extraction is the characterization of the local fault structure, i.e., whether or not faults are acting as barriers to groundwater flow. Therefore, uncertainty in fault characterization can subsequently lead to significant predictive uncertainty. However, new observation data can be obtained to reduce this uncertainty. In this study, an experimental design methodology is employed to optimally acquire new observations of state in such a way as to maximize the information obtained about the hydraulic properties of faults. Various information criteria are employed to develop optimal locations of new observation wells. The A-optimality criterion was found to be the most effective for comparing sampling strategies given the design assumptions, which include the parameter sets employed, hydraulic forcing, temporal considerations, and the use of the existing observation network. A

  12. Tectonic events, sequence stratigraphy and prediction of petroleum play elements in the Cretaceous and Tertiary of the northern Carnarvon Basin, north west shelf, Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Romine, K.K. ); Durrant, J.D. )

    1996-01-01

    The Carnarvon Basin is one of Australia's most prolific oil and gas provinces. A recent Paleocene discovery has initiated a shift in exploration interest from traditional Jurassic/Triassic plays to the younger Cretaceous and Tertiary section. To improve play element prediction, a sequence stratigraphic study has been completed, utilizing newly acquired, regional high-resolution seismic data and 80 wells. The occurrence and distribution of the key play elements, reservoir, source and seal, is controlled by the interaction of tectonic subsidence, eustasy and paleogeography, with traps and migration pathways set up and modified by regional tectonic events. For example, a major rifting event commenced in the latest Kimmeridgian-Tithonian that resulted in structuring of older Jurassic sediments and initiation of seafloor spreading in the adjacent Cuvier-Gascoyne Abyssal Plain in the Valanginian. This event was accompanied by a dramatic fall in eustasy that initiated the deposition of high-quality reservoir sandstones of the Tithonian-Valanginian age Barrow Delta. The post-rift phase of thermal cooling and rapid subsidence resulted in transgression, accompanied by deposition of backstepping parasequences of the Mardie Greensand, a potential thief zone and reservoir, and culminated in maximum transgression and deposition of seal and source facies of the Muclerong Shale. The improved sequence stratigraphic framework established in this study provides a predictive tool for the development and assessment of new plays.

  13. Monitoring of Physiological Parameters to Predict Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Al Rajeh, Ahmed M.; Hurst, John R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The value of monitoring physiological parameters to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations is controversial. A few studies have suggested benefit from domiciliary monitoring of vital signs, and/or lung function but there is no existing systematic review. Objectives: To conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of monitoring physiological parameters to predict COPD exacerbation. Methods: An electronic systematic search compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines was conducted. The search was updated to April 6, 2016. Five databases were examined: Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, or MEDLARS Online (Medline), Excerpta Medica dataBASE (Embase), Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED), Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and the Cochrane clinical trials database. Results: Sixteen articles met the pre-specified inclusion criteria. Fifteen of these articules reported positive results in predicting COPD exacerbation via monitoring of physiological parameters. Nine studies showed a reduction in peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2%) prior to exacerbation onset. Three studies for peak flow, and two studies for respiratory rate reported a significant variation prior to or at exacerbation onset. A particular challenge is accounting for baseline heterogeneity in parameters between patients. Conclusion: There is currently insufficient information on how physiological parameters vary prior to exacerbation to support routine domiciliary monitoring for the prediction of exacerbations in COPD. However, the method remains promising. PMID:27897995

  14. Predictive monitoring for sepsis and necrotizing enterocolitis to prevent shock.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Brynne A; Fairchild, Karen D

    2015-08-01

    Despite vigilant clinical assessment of infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), diagnosis of sepsis and necrotizing enterocolitis often does not occur until an infant has significant hemodynamic compromise. Predictive monitoring involves analysis of vital signs and other clinical data to identify infants at highest risk and to detect early-stage illness, leading to timelier treatment and improved outcomes. The first vital-sign predictive monitoring device developed for sepsis detection in babies in the NICU is the heart rate characteristics index (HeRO) monitor, which continuously analyzes the electrocardiogram signal for low heart rate variability and transient decelerations. Use of this monitor in very low birth weight infants (<1500 g) was shown in a large multicenter randomized clinical trial to significantly reduce mortality. The purpose of this review is (1) to summarize the physiologic changes in neonatal sepsis and progression to shock, (2) to review efforts toward risk stratification for sepsis shortly after birth based on demographic and physiologic scoring systems, (3) to describe development and implementation of heart rate characteristics monitoring and other important aspects of sepsis early warning systems, and (4) to provide an overview of current research analyzing multiple vital signs and other clinical variables in an attempt to develop even more effective predictive monitoring devices and systems.

  15. The Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS): Overview and Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Hao, Z.; Farahmand, A.; Nakhjiri, N.

    2013-12-01

    Development of reliable monitoring and prediction indices and tools are fundamental to drought preparedness and management. Motivated by the Global Drought Information Systems (GDIS) activities, this paper presents the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which provides near real-time drought information using both remote sensing observations and model simulations. The monthly data from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Land), North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), and remotely sensed precipitation data are used as input to GIDMaPS. Numerous indices have been developed for drought monitoring based on various indicator variables (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, water storage). Defining droughts based on a single variable (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture or runoff) may not be sufficient for reliable risk assessment and decision making. GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. In other words, MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions for overall characterization of droughts. The seasonal prediction component of GIDMaPS is based on a persistence model which requires historical data and near-past observations. The seasonal drought prediction component is based on two input data sets (MERRA and NLDAS) and three drought indicators (SPI, SSI and MSDI). The drought prediction model provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from several major droughts including the 2013 Namibia, 2012-2013 United States, 2011-2012 Horn of Africa, and 2010 Amazon Droughts will be presented. The results indicate

  16. Monitoring Central Venous Catheter Resistance to Predict Imminent Occlusion: A Prospective Pilot Study

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Joshua; Tang, Li; Rubnitz, Jeffrey E.; Brennan, Rachel C.; Shook, David R.; Stokes, Dennis C.; Monagle, Paul; Curtis, Nigel; Worth, Leon J.; Allison, Kim; Sun, Yilun; Flynn, Patricia M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Long-term central venous catheters are essential for the management of chronic medical conditions, including childhood cancer. Catheter occlusion is associated with an increased risk of subsequent complications, including bloodstream infection, venous thrombosis, and catheter fracture. Therefore, predicting and pre-emptively treating occlusions should prevent complications, but no method for predicting such occlusions has been developed. Methods We conducted a prospective trial to determine the feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of catheter-resistance monitoring, a novel approach to predicting central venous catheter occlusion in pediatric patients. Participants who had tunneled catheters and were receiving treatment for cancer or undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation underwent weekly catheter-resistance monitoring for up to 12 weeks. Resistance was assessed by measuring the inline pressure at multiple flow-rates via a syringe pump system fitted with a pressure-sensing transducer. When turbulent flow through the device was evident, resistance was not estimated, and the result was noted as “non-laminar.” Results Ten patients attended 113 catheter-resistance monitoring visits. Elevated catheter resistance (>8.8% increase) was strongly associated with the subsequent development of acute catheter occlusion within 10 days (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8–21.5; p <0.01; sensitivity, 75%; specificity, 67%). A combined prediction model comprising either change in resistance greater than 8.8% or a non-laminar result predicted subsequent occlusion (odds ratio = 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.0–22.8; p = 0.002; sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 63%). Participants rated catheter-resistance monitoring as highly acceptable. Conclusions In this pediatric hematology and oncology population, catheter-resistance monitoring is feasible, acceptable, and predicts imminent catheter occlusion. Larger studies are required to validate

  17. Intelligent real-time performance monitoring and quality prediction for batch/fed-batch cultivations.

    PubMed

    Undey, Cenk; Tatara, Eric; Cinar, Ali

    2004-02-19

    Supervision of batch bioprocess operations in real-time during the progress of a batch run offers many advantages over end-of-batch quality control. Multivariate statistical techniques such as multiway partial least squares (MPLS) provide an efficient modeling and supervision framework. A new type of MPLS modeling technique that is especially suitable for online real-time process monitoring and the multivariate monitoring charts are presented. This online process monitoring technique is also extended to include predictions of end-of-batch quality measurements during the progress of a batch run. Process monitoring, quality estimation and fault diagnosis activities are automated and supervised by embedding them into a real-time knowledge-based system (RTKBS). Interpretation of multivariate charts is also automated through a generic rule-base for efficient alarm handling. The integrated RTKBS and the implementation of MPLS-based process monitoring and quality control are illustrated using a fed-batch penicillin production benchmark process simulator.

  18. Improving Multi-Sensor Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Recovery Assessment Using Gravimetry Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.

    2015-04-01

    Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions and provides composite multi-index drought information for overall characterization of droughts. GIDMaPS includes a seasonal prediction component based on a statistical persistence-based approach. The prediction component of GIDMaPS provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation we present a new component in which the drought prediction information based on SPI, SSI and MSDI are conditioned on equivalent water height obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Using a Bayesian approach, GRACE information is used to evaluate persistence of drought. Finally, the deficit equivalent water height based on GRACE is used for assessing drought recovery. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from 2014

  19. Efficacy of monitoring and empirical predictive modeling at improving public health protection at Chicago beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nevers, Meredith B.; Whitman, Richard L.

    2011-01-01

    Efforts to improve public health protection in recreational swimming waters have focused on obtaining real-time estimates of water quality. Current monitoring techniques rely on the time-intensive culturing of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) from water samples, but rapidly changing FIB concentrations result in management errors that lead to the public being exposed to high FIB concentrations (type II error) or beaches being closed despite acceptable water quality (type I error). Empirical predictive models may provide a rapid solution, but their effectiveness at improving health protection has not been adequately assessed. We sought to determine if emerging monitoring approaches could effectively reduce risk of illness exposure by minimizing management errors. We examined four monitoring approaches (inactive, current protocol, a single predictive model for all beaches, and individual models for each beach) with increasing refinement at 14 Chicago beaches using historical monitoring and hydrometeorological data and compared management outcomes using different standards for decision-making. Predictability (R2) of FIB concentration improved with model refinement at all beaches but one. Predictive models did not always reduce the number of management errors and therefore the overall illness burden. Use of a Chicago-specific single-sample standard-rather than the default 235 E. coli CFU/100 ml widely used-together with predictive modeling resulted in the greatest number of open beach days without any increase in public health risk. These results emphasize that emerging monitoring approaches such as empirical models are not equally applicable at all beaches, and combining monitoring approaches may expand beach access.

  20. Efficacy of monitoring and empirical predictive modeling at improving public health protection at Chicago beaches.

    PubMed

    Nevers, Meredith B; Whitman, Richard L

    2011-02-01

    Efforts to improve public health protection in recreational swimming waters have focused on obtaining real-time estimates of water quality. Current monitoring techniques rely on the time-intensive culturing of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) from water samples, but rapidly changing FIB concentrations result in management errors that lead to the public being exposed to high FIB concentrations (type II error) or beaches being closed despite acceptable water quality (type I error). Empirical predictive models may provide a rapid solution, but their effectiveness at improving health protection has not been adequately assessed. We sought to determine if emerging monitoring approaches could effectively reduce risk of illness exposure by minimizing management errors. We examined four monitoring approaches (inactive, current protocol, a single predictive model for all beaches, and individual models for each beach) with increasing refinement at 14 Chicago beaches using historical monitoring and hydrometeorological data and compared management outcomes using different standards for decision-making. Predictability (R(2)) of FIB concentration improved with model refinement at all beaches but one. Predictive models did not always reduce the number of management errors and therefore the overall illness burden. Use of a Chicago-specific single-sample standard-rather than the default 235 E. coli CFU/100 ml widely used-together with predictive modeling resulted in the greatest number of open beach days without any increase in public health risk. These results emphasize that emerging monitoring approaches such as empirical models are not equally applicable at all beaches, and combining monitoring approaches may expand beach access.

  1. Drought: A comprehensive R package for drought monitoring, prediction and analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Cheng, Hongguang

    2015-04-01

    Drought may impose serious challenges to human societies and ecosystems. Due to complicated causing effects and wide impacts, a universally accepted definition of drought does not exist. The drought indicator is commonly used to characterize drought properties such as duration or severity. Various drought indicators have been developed in the past few decades for the monitoring of a certain aspect of drought condition along with the development of multivariate drought indices for drought characterizations from multiple sources or hydro-climatic variables. Reliable drought prediction with suitable drought indicators is critical to the drought preparedness plan to reduce potential drought impacts. In addition, drought analysis to quantify the risk of drought properties would provide useful information for operation drought managements. The drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis are important components in drought modeling and assessments. In this study, a comprehensive R package "drought" is developed to aid the drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis (available from R-Forge and CRAN soon). The computation of a suite of univariate and multivariate drought indices that integrate drought information from various sources such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff is available in the drought monitoring component in the package. The drought prediction/forecasting component consists of statistical drought predictions to enhance the drought early warning for decision makings. Analysis of drought properties such as duration and severity is also provided in this package for drought risk assessments. Based on this package, a drought monitoring and prediction/forecasting system is under development as a decision supporting tool. The package will be provided freely to the public to aid the drought modeling and assessment for researchers and practitioners.

  2. A Study Protocol for the Australasian Oncofertility Registry: Monitoring Referral Patterns and the Uptake, Quality, and Complications of Fertility Preservation Strategies in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Anazodo, Antoinette C; Stern, Catharyn J; McLachlan, Robert I; Gerstl, Brigitte; Agresta, Franca; Cohn, Richard J; Jayasinghe, Yasmin; Wakefield, Claire E; Daly, Genevieve; Chan, Daisy; Gilbert, Lorrae; Kemertzis, Matthew; Orme, Lisa M; Wand, Handan; Viney, Rosalie; Gillam, Lynn; Deans, Rebecca; Jetti, Murali; Wu, John; Chapman, Michael; Ledger, William; Sullivan, Elizabeth A

    2016-09-01

    Improvements in cancer diagnosis and treatment in patients of a reproductive age have led to significant improvements in survival rates; however, a patient's fertility can be affected by both cancer and its treatment. As survival rates improve, there is an expectation by clinicians and patients that patient's reproductive potential should be considered and protected as much as possible. However, there is a lack of data about current fertility preservation (FP) uptake as well as accurate data on the acute or permanent reproductive risks of cancer treatment, complications of FP in cancer patients, and the use and success of assisted reproductive technology by cancer survivors. FP remains a major gap in acute cancer management with lifelong implications for cancer survivors. The FUTuRE Fertility research team has established the first binational multisite Australasian Oncofertility Registry, which is collecting a complete oncofertility data set from cancer and fertility centers in Australia and New Zealand. Outcomes from the research study will monitor referral, uptake, and complications of FP, document patient's reproductive potential after treatment, and collect data on the use of assisted reproductive technology following cancer treatment. The data will be linked to other routine health and administrative data sets to allow for other research projects to be carried out. The changes in oncofertility care will be benchmarked against the Australasian Oncofertility Charter. The data will be used to develop evidence-based guidelines and resources, including development of accurate risk projections for patients' risk of infertility, allowing clinicians to make recommendations for FP or assisted reproductive technology. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Number-12615000221550.

  3. MINErosion 3: A user friendly hillslope model for predicting erosion from steep post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    So, Hwat-Bing; Khalifa, Ashraf; Carroll, Chris; Yu, Bofu

    2010-05-01

    Open-cut coal mining in Central Queensland involves the breaking up of overburden that overlies the coal seams using explosives, followed by removal with draglines which results in the formation of extensive overburden spoil-piles with steep slopes at the angle of repose (approximately 75 % or 37o). These spoil-piles are found in long multiple rows, with heights of up to 60 or 70 m above the original landscapes. They are generally highly saline and dispersive and hence highly erosive. Legislation requires that these spoil-piles be rehabilitated into a stable self sustaining ecosystem with no off-site pollution. The first stage in the rehabilitation of these landscapes is the lowering of slopes to create a landscape that is stable against geotechnical failure and erosion. This is followed by revegetation generally with grasses as pioneer vegetation to further reduce erosion and a mixture of native shrubs and trees. Minimizing erosion and excessive on-site discharges of sediment into the working areas may result in the temporary cessation of mining operation with significant financial consequences, while off site discharges may breach the mining lease conditions. The average cost of rehabilitation is around 22,000 per ha. With more than 50,000 ha of such spoil-piles in Queensland at present, the total cost of rehabilitation facing the industry is very high. Most of this comprised the cost of reshaping the landscape, largely associated with the amount of material movement necessary to achieve the desired landscape. Since soil and spoil-piles vary greatly in their erodibilities, a reliable and accurate method is required to determine a cost effective combination of slope length, slope gradient and vegetation that will result in acceptable rates of erosion. A user friendly hillslope computer package MINErosion 3, was developed to predict potential erosion to select suitable combinations of landscape design parameters (slope gradient, slope length and vegetation cover

  4. Categorical Drought Monitoring and Prediction in the United States Based on NLDAS-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Z.; Xia, Y.; Hao, F.; Singh, V. P.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is a pervasive natural hazard and is a billion-dollar disaster in the United States, which is comparable to hurricanes and tropical storms with greater economic impacts than extratropical storms, wildfires, blizzards, and ice storms combined. Drought early warning is of critical importance for drought preparedness planning and mitigation efforts to reduce potential impacts of drought, for which drought monitoring and prediction are the essential components. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has been widely used to track droughts and their impacts. USDM is a composite product that blends quantitative drought indicators and qualitative drought information from multiple sources and classifies drought conditions into different drought categories. Due to the wide application of USDM products, drought monitoring and prediction in the categorical form would be of great importance to aid decision makers to take appropriate measures for drought managements. Based on drought indices from North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2), this study proposes a statistical method for the categorical drought monitoring and prediction in the United States. The probabilities of drought conditions falling into different USDM drought categories can be estimated from the proposed method. The method is found to satisfactorily reconstruct historical USDM drought categories and predict future USDM drought categories, and has considerable potential to aid early drought warning in the United States.

  5. Predicting High Risk Adolescents' Substance Use over Time: The Role of Parental Monitoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Heddy Kovach; Shamblen, Stephen R.; Ringwalt, Chris L.; Hanley, Sean

    2012-01-01

    We examined whether parental monitoring at baseline predicted subsequent substance use in a high-risk youth population. Students in 14 alternative high schools in Washington State completed self-report surveys at three time points over the course of 2 years. Primary analyses included 1,423 students aged 14-20 who lived with at least one parent or…

  6. Improving flood prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture in poorly monitored catchments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Flood prediction in poorly monitored catchments is among the greatest challenges faced by hydrologists. To address this challenge, an increasing number of studies in the last decade have explored methods to integrate various existing observations from ground and satellites. One approach in particula...

  7. Predicting Kindergarteners' Response to Early Reading Intervention: An Examination of Progress-Monitoring Measures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oslund, Eric L.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Taylor, Aaron B.; Simmons, Deborah C.; Simmons, Leslie; Kwok, Oi-Man; Johnson, Caitlin; Coyne, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of combinations of progress-monitoring measures: (a) curriculum-embedded phonemic awareness and alphabetic/decoding measures, and (b) Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS; Good & Kaminski, 2002) nonsense word fluency and phoneme segmentation fluency on reading outcomes of…

  8. Development of a catchment/landscape erosion prediction model (MINErosion 4) for post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalifa, Ashraf; Yu, Bofu; Ghadiri, Hossain; Carroll, Chris; So, Hwat-Bing

    2010-05-01

    industry further require a tool that enables them to predict and manage the impact of on-site and offsite discharges from storm events and to identify the areas of high erosion risk. Work is in progress to develop a user friendly package MINErosion 4 by combining the hillslope model MINErosion 3 with ARC-GIS 9, which allows the prediction of sediment losses and deposition from proposed post-mining landscapes (designed based on criteria derived from MINErosion3) subjected to rainstorms with known recurrence intervals for selected locations. An option is provided to derive mean annual soil loss from these catchments and landscapes. Soil samples were collected from various locations on 6 minesites to provide a measure of variability in erodibilities across a minesite. The model was validated against 9 years of catchment data collected from previous projects and the agreement between predicted (Y) and measured (X) soil losses are good with regression equations of Y = 0.919 X (R2 = 0.81) for individual rainstorms, and Y= 1.473 X (R2 = 0.726) for average annual soil loss.

  9. Predictive monitoring of mobile patients by combining clinical observations with data from wearable sensors.

    PubMed

    Clifton, Lei; Clifton, David A; Pimentel, Marco A F; Watkinson, Peter J; Tarassenko, Lionel

    2014-05-01

    The majority of patients in the hospital are ambulatory and would benefit significantly from predictive and personalized monitoring systems. Such patients are well suited to having their physiological condition monitored using low-power, minimally intrusive wearable sensors. Despite data-collection systems now being manufactured commercially, allowing physiological data to be acquired from mobile patients, little work has been undertaken on the use of the resultant data in a principled manner for robust patient care, including predictive monitoring. Most current devices generate so many false-positive alerts that devices cannot be used for routine clinical practice. This paper explores principled machine learning approaches to interpreting large quantities of continuously acquired, multivariate physiological data, using wearable patient monitors, where the goal is to provide early warning of serious physiological determination, such that a degree of predictive care may be provided. We adopt a one-class support vector machine formulation, proposing a formulation for determining the free parameters of the model using partial area under the ROC curve, a method arising from the unique requirements of performing online analysis with data from patient-worn sensors. There are few clinical evaluations of machine learning techniques in the literature, so we present results from a study at the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust devised to investigate the large-scale clinical use of patient-worn sensors for predictive monitoring in a ward with a high incidence of patient mortality. We show that our system can combine routine manual observations made by clinical staff with the continuous data acquired from wearable sensors. Practical considerations and recommendations based on our experiences of this clinical study are discussed, in the context of a framework for personalized monitoring.

  10. Predictive based monitoring of nuclear plant component degradation using support vector regression

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, Vivek; Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.

    2015-02-01

    Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are large installations comprised of many active and passive assets. Degradation monitoring of all these assets is expensive (labor cost) and highly demanding task. In this paper a framework based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for online surveillance of critical parameter degradation of NPP components is proposed. In this case, on time replacement or maintenance of components will prevent potential plant malfunctions, and reduce the overall operational cost. In the current work, we apply SVR equipped with a Gaussian kernel function to monitor components. Monitoring includes the one-step-ahead prediction of the component’s respective operational quantity using the SVR model, while the SVR model is trained using a set of previous recorded degradation histories of similar components. Predictive capability of the model is evaluated upon arrival of a sensor measurement, which is compared to the component failure threshold. A maintenance decision is based on a fuzzy inference system that utilizes three parameters: (i) prediction evaluation in the previous steps, (ii) predicted value of the current step, (iii) and difference of current predicted value with components failure thresholds. The proposed framework will be tested on turbine blade degradation data.

  11. Application of the Artificial Neural Network model for prediction of monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index using hydrometeorological parameters and climate indices in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Şahin, Mehmet

    2015-07-01

    The forecasting of drought based on cumulative influence of rainfall, temperature and evaporation is greatly beneficial for mitigating adverse consequences on water-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, ecosystems, wildlife, tourism, recreation, crop health and hydrologic engineering. Predictive models of drought indices help in assessing water scarcity situations, drought identification and severity characterization. In this paper, we tested the feasibility of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a data-driven model for predicting the monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for eight candidate stations in eastern Australia using predictive variable data from 1915 to 2005 (training) and simulated data for the period 2006-2012. The predictive variables were: monthly rainfall totals, mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration, which were supplemented by large-scale climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and Indian Ocean Dipole) and the Sea Surface Temperatures (Nino 3.0, 3.4 and 4.0). A total of 30 ANN models were developed with 3-layer ANN networks. To determine the best combination of learning algorithms, hidden transfer and output functions of the optimum model, the Levenberg-Marquardt and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton backpropagation algorithms were utilized to train the network, tangent and logarithmic sigmoid equations used as the activation functions and the linear, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid equations used as the output function. The best ANN architecture had 18 input neurons, 43 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron, trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm using tangent sigmoid equation as the activation and output functions. An evaluation of the model performance based on statistical rules yielded time-averaged Coefficient of Determination, Root Mean Squared Error and the Mean Absolute

  12. Southern Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    South-central Australia is home to several deserts, including the Simpson Desert, whose reddish-orange sands are seen in the upper left quadrant of this Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image from July 1, 2002. Several impermanent, salty, lakes stand whitely out against the arid terrain. The largest is North Lake Eyre, southwest of center. At bottom center, Spencer Gulf separates the triangular Eyre Peninsula from the Yorke Peninsula. The Gulf of St. Vincent separates Yorke Peninsula from the mainland. In Spencer Gulf, colorful blue-green swirls indicate the presence of a bloom of marine plants called phytoplankton, whose brightly colored photosynthetic pigments stain the water. Water quality in the Gulf is an ongoing problem for Australia, as irrigation projects have diverted the already small flow of freshwater that empties into the Gulf. Other problems include contamination with pesticides and agricultural and residential fertilizer. On both the Eyre Peninsula and in the Victoria Territory to the east of Spencer Gulf, dark-colored rectangles show the boundaries of parks and nature preserves where the natural, drought-tolerant vegetation thrives.

  13. Dynamic monitoring and prediction of Dianchi Lake cyanobacteria outbreaks in the context of rapid urbanization.

    PubMed

    Luo, Yi; Yang, Kun; Yu, Zhenyu; Chen, Junyi; Xu, Yufei; Zhou, Xiaolu; Yang, Yang

    2016-12-24

    Water crises have been among the most serious environmental problems worldwide since the twenty-first century. A water crisis is marked by a severe shortage of water resources and deteriorating water quality. As an important component of water resources, lake water quality has deteriorated rapidly in the context of fast urbanization and climate change. This deterioration has altered the water ecosystem structure and influenced lake functionality. To curb these trends, various strategies and procedures have been used in many urban lakes. Among these procedures, accurate and responsive water environment monitoring is the basis of the forecasting and prevention of large-scale cyanobacteria outbreaks and improvement of water quality. To dynamically monitor and predict the outbreak of cyanobacteria in Dianchi Lake, in this study, wireless sensors networks (WSNs) and the geographic information system (GIS) are used to monitor water quality at the macro-scale and meso-scale. Historical, real-time water quality and weather condition data were collected, and a combination prediction model (adaptive grey model (AGM) and back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN)) was proposed. The correlation coefficient (R) of the simulation experiment reached 0.995. Moreover, we conducted an empirical experiment in Dianchi Lake, Yunnan, China using the proposed method. R was 0.93, and the predicting error was 4.77. The results of the experiment suggest that our model has good performance for water quality prediction and can forecast cyanobacteria outbreaks. This system provides responsive forewarning and data support for lake protection and pollution control.

  14. Quantifying the prediction accuracy of a 1-D SVAT model at a range of ecosystems in the USA and Australia: evidence towards its use as a tool to study Earth's system interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petropoulos, G. P.; North, M. R.; Ireland, G.; Srivastava, P. K.; Rendall, D. V.

    2015-10-01

    This paper describes the validation of the SimSphere SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer) model conducted at a range of US and Australian ecosystem types. Specific focus was given to examining the models' ability in predicting shortwave incoming solar radiation (Rg), net radiation (Rnet), latent heat (LE), sensible heat (H), air temperature at 1.3 m (Tair 1.3 m) and air temperature at 50 m (Tair 50 m). Model predictions were compared against corresponding in situ measurements acquired for a total of 72 selected days of the year 2011 obtained from eight sites belonging to the AmeriFlux (USA) and OzFlux (Australia) monitoring networks. Selected sites were representative of a variety of environmental, biome and climatic conditions, to allow for the inclusion of contrasting conditions in the model evaluation. Overall, results showed a good agreement between the model predictions and the in situ measurements, particularly so for the Rg, Rnet, Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m parameters. The simulated Rg parameter exhibited a root mean square deviation (RMSD) within 25 % of the observed fluxes for 58 of the 72 selected days, whereas an RMSD within ~ 24 % of the observed fluxes was reported for the Rnet parameter for all days of study (RMSD = 58.69 W m-2). A systematic underestimation of Rg and Rnet (mean bias error (MBE) = -19.48 and -16.46 W m-2) was also found. Simulations for the Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m showed good agreement with the in situ observations, exhibiting RMSDs of 3.23 and 3.77 °C (within ~ 15 and ~ 18 % of the observed) for all days of analysis, respectively. Comparable, yet slightly less satisfactory simulation accuracies were exhibited for the H and LE parameters (RMSDs = 38.47 and 55.06 W m-2, ~ 34 and ~ 28 % of the observed). Highest simulation accuracies were obtained for the open woodland savannah and mulga woodland sites for most of the compared parameters. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index for all parameters ranges from 0.720 to 0.998, suggesting

  15. Evaluation of the predicted error of the soil moisture retrieval from C-band SAR by comparison against modelled soil moisture estimates over Australia

    PubMed Central

    Doubková, Marcela; Van Dijk, Albert I.J.M.; Sabel, Daniel; Wagner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

    2012-01-01

    The Sentinel-1 will carry onboard a C-band radar instrument that will map the European continent once every four days and the global land surface at least once every twelve days with finest 5 × 20 m spatial resolution. The high temporal sampling rate and operational configuration make Sentinel-1 of interest for operational soil moisture monitoring. Currently, updated soil moisture data are made available at 1 km spatial resolution as a demonstration service using Global Mode (GM) measurements from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) onboard ENVISAT. The service demonstrates the potential of the C-band observations to monitor variations in soil moisture. Importantly, a retrieval error estimate is also available; these are needed to assimilate observations into models. The retrieval error is estimated by propagating sensor errors through the retrieval model. In this work, the existing ASAR GM retrieval error product is evaluated using independent top soil moisture estimates produced by the grid-based landscape hydrological model (AWRA-L) developed within the Australian Water Resources Assessment system (AWRA). The ASAR GM retrieval error estimate, an assumed prior AWRA-L error estimate and the variance in the respective datasets were used to spatially predict the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient R between the two datasets. These were compared with the RMSE calculated directly from the two datasets. The predicted and computed RMSE showed a very high level of agreement in spatial patterns as well as good quantitative agreement; the RMSE was predicted within accuracy of 4% of saturated soil moisture over 89% of the Australian land mass. Predicted and calculated R maps corresponded within accuracy of 10% over 61% of the continent. The strong correspondence between the predicted and calculated RMSE and R builds confidence in the retrieval error model and derived ASAR GM error estimates. The ASAR GM and Sentinel-1 have

  16. Evaluation of the predicted error of the soil moisture retrieval from C-band SAR by comparison against modelled soil moisture estimates over Australia.

    PubMed

    Doubková, Marcela; Van Dijk, Albert I J M; Sabel, Daniel; Wagner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

    2012-05-15

    The Sentinel-1 will carry onboard a C-band radar instrument that will map the European continent once every four days and the global land surface at least once every twelve days with finest 5 × 20 m spatial resolution. The high temporal sampling rate and operational configuration make Sentinel-1 of interest for operational soil moisture monitoring. Currently, updated soil moisture data are made available at 1 km spatial resolution as a demonstration service using Global Mode (GM) measurements from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) onboard ENVISAT. The service demonstrates the potential of the C-band observations to monitor variations in soil moisture. Importantly, a retrieval error estimate is also available; these are needed to assimilate observations into models. The retrieval error is estimated by propagating sensor errors through the retrieval model. In this work, the existing ASAR GM retrieval error product is evaluated using independent top soil moisture estimates produced by the grid-based landscape hydrological model (AWRA-L) developed within the Australian Water Resources Assessment system (AWRA). The ASAR GM retrieval error estimate, an assumed prior AWRA-L error estimate and the variance in the respective datasets were used to spatially predict the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient R between the two datasets. These were compared with the RMSE calculated directly from the two datasets. The predicted and computed RMSE showed a very high level of agreement in spatial patterns as well as good quantitative agreement; the RMSE was predicted within accuracy of 4% of saturated soil moisture over 89% of the Australian land mass. Predicted and calculated R maps corresponded within accuracy of 10% over 61% of the continent. The strong correspondence between the predicted and calculated RMSE and R builds confidence in the retrieval error model and derived ASAR GM error estimates. The ASAR GM and Sentinel-1 have

  17. Prediction of vertical gradient of gravity and its significance for volcano monitoring - example from Teide volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahorec, Pavol; Vajda, Peter; Papčo, Juraj; Sainz-Maza Aparicio, Sergio; Pereda De Pablo, Jorge

    2016-09-01

    We present a detailed calculation of the topographic contribution to the vertical gradient of gravity (VGG) based on high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) and new developed software (Toposk) for the purpose of predicting the actual VGGs in the field. The calculations presented here were performed for the Central Volcanic Complex (CVC) of Tenerife. We aimed at identifying the most extreme VGGs within the CVC, as well as predicting the VGGs at benchmarks of the former microgravity/deformation network set up to monitor the 2004/5 unrest. We have carried out an observational campaign in June 2016 to verify the predicted VGG values, both the extreme ones and those at the benchmarks. The comparison between the predicted and the in-situ verified VGGs is presented here. We demonstrate the sensitivity of the VGG prediction to the choice of the topo-rock density, which is inherent to the volcanic areas with high variability of rock densities. We illustrate the significance of the use of actual VGG in volcano monitoring microgravimetric surveys on a couple of benchmarks of the CVC network.

  18. Using skin impedance to improve prediction accuracy of continuous glucose monitoring system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Haixia; Liu, Jin; Shi, Ting; Li, Dachao; Du, Zhenhui; Xu, Kexin

    2008-02-01

    The continuous blood glucose monitoring system using interstitial fluid (ISF) extracted by ultrasound and vacuum is proposed in this paper. The skin impedance measurement is introduced into the system to monitor the skin permeability variation. Low-frequency ultrasound is applied on skin surface to enhance the skin permeability by disrupting the lipid bilayers of the stratum corneum (SC), and then ISF is extracted out of skin continuously by vacuum. The extracted ISF is diluted and the concentration of glucose in it is detected by a biosensor and used to predict the blood glucose concentration. The skin permeability is variable during the extraction, and its variation affects the prediction accuracy. The skin impedance is an excellent indicator of skin permeability in that the lipid bilayers of the SC, which offer electrical resistance to the skin, retard transdermal transport of molecules. So the skin impedance measured during the extraction is transformed to skin conductivity to estimate correlation coefficient between skin conductivity and permeability. Skin conductivity correlates well with skin permeability. The method and experiment system mentioned above may be significative for improving the prediction accuracy of continuous blood glucose monitoring system.

  19. Integrating monitor alarms with laboratory test results to enhance patient deterioration prediction.

    PubMed

    Bai, Yong; Do, Duc H; Harris, Patricia Rae Eileen; Schindler, Daniel; Boyle, Noel G; Drew, Barbara J; Hu, Xiao

    2015-02-01

    Patient monitors in modern hospitals have become ubiquitous but they generate an excessive number of false alarms causing alarm fatigue. Our previous work showed that combinations of frequently co-occurring monitor alarms, called SuperAlarm patterns, were capable of predicting in-hospital code blue events at a lower alarm frequency. In the present study, we extend the conceptual domain of a SuperAlarm to incorporate laboratory test results along with monitor alarms so as to build an integrated data set to mine SuperAlarm patterns. We propose two approaches to integrate monitor alarms with laboratory test results and use a maximal frequent itemsets mining algorithm to find SuperAlarm patterns. Under an acceptable false positive rate FPRmax, optimal parameters including the minimum support threshold and the length of time window for the algorithm to find the combinations of monitor alarms and laboratory test results are determined based on a 10-fold cross-validation set. SuperAlarm candidates are generated under these optimal parameters. The final SuperAlarm patterns are obtained by further removing the candidates with false positive rate>FPRmax. The performance of SuperAlarm patterns are assessed using an independent test data set. First, we calculate the sensitivity with respect to prediction window and the sensitivity with respect to lead time. Second, we calculate the false SuperAlarm ratio (ratio of the hourly number of SuperAlarm triggers for control patients to that of the monitor alarms, or that of regular monitor alarms plus laboratory test results if the SuperAlarm patterns contain laboratory test results) and the work-up to detection ratio, WDR (ratio of the number of patients triggering any SuperAlarm patterns to that of code blue patients triggering any SuperAlarm patterns). The experiment results demonstrate that when varying FPRmax between 0.02 and 0.15, the SuperAlarm patterns composed of monitor alarms along with the last two laboratory test results

  20. Considerations on the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, D B; Zucca, J J; McCallen, D B; Pasyanos, M E; Flanagan, M P; Myers, S C; Walter, W R; Rodgers, A J; Harben, P E

    2007-07-09

    The use of 3-D geophysical models to predict nuclear test ban monitoring observables (phase travel times, amplitudes, dispersion, etc.) is widely anticipated to provide improvements in the basic seismic monitoring functions of detection, association, location, discrimination and yield estimation. A number of questions arise when contemplating a transition from 1-D, 2-D and 2.5-D models to constructing and using 3-D models, among them: (1) Can a 3-D geophysical model or a collection of 3-D models provide measurably improved predictions of seismic monitoring observables over existing 1-D models, or 2-D and 2 1/2-D models currently under development? (2) Is a single model that can predict all observables achievable, or must separate models be devised for each observable? How should joint inversion of disparate observable data be performed, if required? (3) What are the options for model representation? Are multi-resolution models essential? How does representation affect the accuracy and speed of observable predictions? (4) How should model uncertainty be estimated, represented and how should it be used? Are stochastic models desirable? (5) What data types should be used to construct the models? What quality control regime should be established? (6) How will 3-D models be used in operations? Will significant improvements in the basic monitoring functions result from the use of 3-D models? Will the calculation of observables through 3-D models be fast enough for real-time use or must a strategy of pre-computation be employed? (7) What are the theoretical limits to 3-D model development (resolution, uncertainty) and performance in predicting monitoring observables? How closely can those limits be approached with projected data availability, station distribution and inverse methods? (8) What priorities should be placed on the acquisition of event ground truth information, deployment of new stations, development of new inverse techniques, exploitation of large

  1. Short-term memory predictions across the lifespan: monitoring span before and after conducting a task.

    PubMed

    Bertrand, Julie Marilyne; Moulin, Chris John Anthony; Souchay, Céline

    2016-06-17

    Our objective was to explore metamemory in short-term memory across the lifespan. Five age groups participated in this study: 3 groups of children (4-13 years old), and younger and older adults. We used a three-phase task: prediction-span-postdiction. For prediction and postdiction phases, participants reported with a Yes/No response if they could recall in order a series of images. For the span task, they had to actually recall such series. From 4 years old, children have some ability to monitor their short-term memory and are able to adjust their prediction after experiencing the task. However, accuracy still improves significantly until adolescence. Although the older adults had a lower span, they were as accurate as young adults in their evaluation, suggesting that metamemory is unimpaired for short-term memory tasks in older adults.

  2. Optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

    2010-12-01

    The process of decision making to protect groundwater resources requires a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties associated with modeling a natural system, such as: (1) measurement and computational errors; (2) uncertainties in the conceptual model and model-parameter estimates; (3) simplifications in model setup and numerical representation of governing processes, contribute to the uncertainties in the model predictions. Due to this combination of factors, the sources of predictive uncertainties are generally difficult to quantify individually. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks requires (1) detailed analyses of existing uncertainties related to model predictions of groundwater flow and contaminant transport, (2) optimization of the proposed monitoring network locations in terms of their efficiency to detect contaminants and provide early warning. We apply existing and newly-proposed methods to quantify predictive uncertainties and to optimize well locations. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of newly-developed optimization technique based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods which proved to be robust and computationally efficient. These techniques and algorithms are bundled in a software package called MADS. MADS (Model Analyses for Decision Support) is an object-oriented code that is capable of performing various types of model analyses and supporting model-based decision making. The code can be executed under different computational modes, which include (1) sensitivity analyses (global and local), (2) Monte Carlo analysis, (3) model calibration, (4) parameter estimation, (5) uncertainty quantification, and (6) model selection. The code can be externally coupled with any existing model simulator through integrated modules that read/write input and output files using a set of template and instruction files (consistent with the PEST

  3. Tuberculosis notifications in Australia, 2011.

    PubMed

    Bareja, Christina; Waring, Justin; Stapledon, Richard; Toms, Cindy; Douglas, Paul

    2014-12-31

    The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System received 1,385 tuberculosis (TB) notifications in 2011, representing a rate of 6.2 cases per 100,000 population. While Australia has maintained a rate of 5 to 6 cases per 100,000 for TB since the mid-1980s, there has been a steady increase in incidence over the past decade. In 2011, Australia's overseas-born population continued to represent the majority of TB notifications (88%) with a notification rate of 20.2 per 100,000. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born Indigenous population has fluctuated over the last decade and showed no clear trend; however, in 2011 the notification rate was 4.9 per 100,000, which is a notable decrease from the 7.5 per 100,000 recorded in 2010. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born non-Indigenous population has continued to remain low at 0.9 per 100,000. Australia continued to record only a small number of multi-drug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) cases nationally (n=25), all of which were identified in the overseas-born population. To ensure that Australia can retain its low TB rate and work toward reducing rates further, it is essential that Australia maintains good centralised national TB reporting to monitor trends and identify at-risk populations, and continues to contribute to global TB control initiatives.

  4. Accuracy of continuous noninvasive hemoglobin monitoring for the prediction of blood transfusions in trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Galvagno, Samuel M; Hu, Peter; Yang, Shiming; Gao, Cheng; Hanna, David; Shackelford, Stacy; Mackenzie, Colin

    2015-12-01

    Early detection of hemorrhagic shock is required to facilitate prompt coordination of blood component therapy delivery to the bedside and to expedite performance of lifesaving interventions. Standard physical findings and vital signs are difficult to measure during the acute resuscitation stage, and these measures are often inaccurate until patients deteriorate to a state of decompensated shock. The aim of this study is to examine a severely injured trauma patient population to determine whether a noninvasive SpHb monitor can predict the need for urgent blood transfusion (universal donor or additional urgent blood transfusion) during the first 12 h of trauma patient resuscitation. We hypothesize that trends in continuous SpHb, combined with easily derived patient-specific factors, can identify the immediate need for transfusion in trauma patients. Subjects were enrolled if directly admitted to the trauma center, >17 years of age, and with a shock index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) >0.62. Upon admission, a Masimo Radical-7 co-oximeter sensor (Masimo Corporation, Irvine, CA) was applied, providing measurement of continuous non-invasive hemoglobin (SpHb) levels. Blood was drawn and hemoglobin concentration analyzed and conventional pulse oximetry photopletysmograph signals were continuously recorded. Demographic information and both prehospital and admission vital signs were collected. The primary outcome was transfusion of at least one unit of packed red blood cells within 24 h of admission. Eight regression models (C1-C8) were evaluated for the prediction of blood use by comparing area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) at different time intervals after admission. 711 subjects had continuous vital signs waveforms available, to include heart rate (HR), SpHb and SpO2 trends. When SpHb was monitored for 15 min, SpHb did not increase AUROC for prediction of transfusion. The highest ROC was recorded for model C8 (age, sex, prehospital shock index, admission

  5. Predictive monitoring for respiratory decompensation leading to urgent unplanned intubation in the neonatal intensive care unit

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Matthew T.; Vergales, Brooke D.; Paget-Brown, Alix O.; Smoot, Terri J.; Lake, Douglas E.; Hudson, John L.; Delos, John B.; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J. Randall

    2013-01-01

    Background Infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and especially those born with very low birth weight (VLBW; <1500 grams), are at risk for respiratory decompensation requiring endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation. Intubation and mechanical ventilation are associated with increased morbidity, particularly in urgent unplanned cases. Methods We tested the hypothesis that the systemic response associated with respiratory decompensation can be detected from physiological monitoring, and that statistical models of bedside monitoring data can identify infants at increased risk of urgent, unplanned intubation. We studied 287 VLBW infants consecutively admitted to our NICU and found 96 events in 51 patients, excluding intubations occurring within 12 hours of a previous extubation. Results In order of importance in a multivariable statistical model, we found the characteristics of reduced O2 saturation, especially as heart rate was falling, increased heart rate correlation with respiratory rate, and the amount of apnea all were significant independent predictors. The predictive model, validated internally by bootstrap, had receiver-operating characteristic area of 0.84 ± 0.04. Conclusions We propose that predictive monitoring in the NICU for urgent unplanned intubation may improve outcomes by allowing clinicians to intervene non-invasively before intubation is required. PMID:23138402

  6. Remote Health Monitoring Outcome Success Prediction Using Baseline and First Month Intervention Data.

    PubMed

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Sideris, Costas; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Kalantarian, Haik; Sarrafzadeh, Majid; Eastwood, Jo-Ann

    2017-03-01

    Remote health monitoring (RHM) systems are becoming more widely adopted by clinicians and hospitals to remotely monitor and communicate with patients while optimizing clinician time, decreasing hospital costs, and improving quality of care. In the Women's heart health study (WHHS), we developed Wanda-cardiovascular disease (CVD), where participants received healthy lifestyle education followed by six months of technology support and reinforcement. Wanda-CVD is a smartphone-based RHM system designed to assist participants in reducing identified CVD risk factors through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. Many participants benefitted from this RHM system. In response to the variance in participants' success, we developed a framework to identify classification schemes that predicted successful and unsuccessful participants. We analyzed both contextual baseline features and data from the first month of intervention such as activity, blood pressure, and questionnaire responses transmitted through the smartphone. A prediction tool can aid clinicians and scientists in identifying participants who may optimally benefit from the RHM system. Targeting therapies could potentially save healthcare costs, clinician, and participant time and resources. Our classification scheme yields RHM outcome success predictions with an F-measure of 91.9%, and identifies behaviors during the first month of intervention that help determine outcome success. We also show an improvement in prediction by using intervention-based smartphone data. Results from the WHHS study demonstrates that factors such as the variation in first month intervention response to the consumption of nuts, beans, and seeds in the diet help predict patient RHM protocol outcome success in a group of young Black women ages 25-45.

  7. Monitoring, fault detection and operation prediction of MSW incinerators using multivariate statistical methods.

    PubMed

    Tavares, Gilberto; Zsigraiová, Zdena; Semiao, Viriato; Carvalho, Maria da Graca

    2011-07-01

    This work proposes the application of two multivariate statistical methods, principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS), to a continuous process of a municipal solid waste (MSW) moving grate-type incinerator for process control--monitoring, fault detection and diagnosis--through the extraction of information from historical data. PCA model is built for process monitoring capable of detecting abnormal situations and the original 16-variable process dimension is reduced to eight, the first 4 being able to capture together 86% of the total process variation. PLS model is constructed to predict the generated superheated steam flow rate allowing for control of its set points. The model retained six of the original 13 variables, explaining together 90% of the input variation and almost 98% of the output variation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by applying those multivariate statistical methods to process data continuously measured in an actual incinerator. Both models exhibited very good performance in fault detection and isolation. In predicting the generated superheated steam flow rate for its set point control the PLS model performed very well with low prediction errors (RMSE of 3.1 and 4.1).

  8. A mixture Weibull proportional hazard model for mechanical system failure prediction utilising lifetime and monitoring data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qing; Hua, Cheng; Xu, Guanghua

    2014-02-01

    As mechanical systems increase in complexity, it is becoming more and more common to observe multiple failure modes. The system failure can be regarded as the result of interaction and competition between different failure modes. It is therefore necessary to combine multiple failure modes when analysing the failure of an overall system. In this paper, a mixture Weibull proportional hazard model (MWPHM) is proposed to predict the failure of a mechanical system with multiple failure modes. The mixed model parameters are estimated by combining historical lifetime and monitoring data of all failure modes. In addition, the system failure probability density is obtained by proportionally mixing the failure probability density of multiple failure modes. Monitoring data are input into the MWPHM to estimate the system reliability and predict the system failure time. A simulated sample set is used to verify the ability of the MWPHM to model multiple failure modes. Finally, the MWPHM and the traditional Weibull proportional hazard model (WPHM) are applied to a high-pressure water descaling pump, which has two failure modes: sealing ring wear and thrust bearing damage. Results show that the MWPHM is greatly superior in system failure prediction to the WPHM.

  9. Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2016-01-01

    As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

  10. Research-Based Monitoring, Prediction, and Analysis Tools of the Spacecraft Charging Environment for Spacecraft Users

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti A.; Maddox, Marlo M.; Mays, Mona Leila

    2015-01-01

    The Space Weather Research Center (http://swrc. gsfc.nasa.gov) at NASA Goddard, part of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov), is committed to providing research-based forecasts and notifications to address NASA's space weather needs, in addition to its critical role in space weather education. It provides a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, tailored space weather alerts and products, and weekly summaries and reports. In this paper, we focus on how (near) real-time data (both in space and on ground), in combination with modeling capabilities and an innovative dissemination system called the integrated Space Weather Analysis system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), enable monitoring, analyzing, and predicting the spacecraft charging environment for spacecraft users. Relevant tools and resources are discussed.

  11. Differences between fully Bayesian and pragmatic methods to assess predictive uncertainty and optimal monitoring designs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wöhling, Thomas; Geiges, Andreas; Gosses, Moritz; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    Data acquisition for monitoring the state in different compartments of complex, coupled environmental systems is often time consuming and expensive. Therefore, experimental monitoring strategies are ideally designed such that most can be learned about the system at minimal costs. Bayesian methods for uncertainty quantification and optimal design (OD) of monitoring strategies are well suited to handle the non-linearity exhibited by most coupled environmental systems. However, their high computational demand restricts their applicability to models with comparatively low run-times. Therefore, pragmatic approaches have been used predominantly in the past where data worth and OD analyses have been restricted to linear or linearised problems and methods. Bayesian (nonlinear) and pragmatic (linear) OD approaches are founded on different assumptions and typically follow different steps in the modelling chain of 1) model calibration, 2) uncertainty quantification, and 3) optimal design analysis. The goal of this study is to follow through these steps for a Bayesian and a pragmatic approach and to discuss the impact of different assumptions (prior uncertainty), calibration strategies, and OD analysis methods on the proposed monitoring designs and their reliability to reduce predictive uncertainty. The OD framework PreDIA (Leube et al. 2012) is used for the nonlinear assessment with a conditional model ensemble obtained with Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulation representing the initial predictive uncertainty. PreDIA can consider any kind of uncertainties and non-linear (statistical) dependencies in data, models, parameters and system drivers during the OD process. In the pragmatic OD approach, the parameter calibration was performed with a non-linear global search and the initial predictive uncertainty was estimated using the PREDUNC utility (Moore and Doherty 2005) of PEST. PREDUNC was also used for the linear OD analysis. We applied PreDIA and PREDUNC for uncertainty

  12. Individual Differences in Fifth Graders' Literacy and Academic Language Predict Comprehension Monitoring Development: An Eye-Movement Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we investigated fifth graders' (n = 52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children…

  13. A computational model to monitor and predict trends in bacterial resistance.

    PubMed

    Alawieh, Ali; Sabra, Zahraa; Bizri, Abdul Rahman; Davies, Christopher; White, Roger; Zaraket, Fadi A

    2015-09-01

    Current concern over the emergence of multidrug-resistant superbugs has renewed interest in approaches that can monitor existing trends in bacterial resistance and make predictions of future trends. Recent advances in bacterial surveillance and the development of online repositories of susceptibility tests across wide geographical areas provide an important new resource, yet there are only limited computational tools for its exploitation. Here we propose a hybrid computational model called BARDmaps for automated analysis of antibacterial susceptibility tests from surveillance records and for performing future predictions. BARDmaps was designed to include a structural computational model that can detect patterns among bacterial resistance changes as well as a behavioural computational model that can use the detected patterns to predict future changes in bacterial resistance. Data from the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) were used to validate and apply the model. BARDmaps was compared with standard curve-fitting approaches used in epidemiological research. Here we show that BARDmaps can reliably predict future trends in bacterial resistance across Europe. BARDmaps performed better than other curve-fitting approaches for predicting future resistance levels. In addition, BARDmaps was also able to detect abrupt changes in bacterial resistance in response to outbreaks and interventions as well as to compare bacterial behaviour across countries and drugs. In conclusion, BARDmaps is a reliable tool to automatically predict and analyse changes in bacterial resistance across Europe. We anticipate that BARDmaps will become an invaluable tool both for clinical providers and governmental agencies to help combat the threat posed by antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

  14. Ocean currents influence the genetic structure of an intertidal mollusc in southeastern Australia - implications for predicting the movement of passive dispersers across a marine biogeographic barrier.

    PubMed

    Miller, Adam D; Versace, Vincent L; Matthews, Ty G; Montgomery, Steven; Bowie, Kate C

    2013-05-01

    Major disjunctions among marine communities in southeastern Australia have been well documented, although explanations for biogeographic structuring remain uncertain. Converging ocean currents, environmental gradients, and habitat discontinuities have been hypothesized as likely drivers of structuring in many species, although the extent to which species are affected appears largely dependent on specific life histories and ecologies. Understanding these relationships is critical to the management of native and invasive species, and the preservation of evolutionary processes that shape biodiversity in this region. In this study we test the direct influence of ocean currents on the genetic structure of a passive disperser across a major biogeographic barrier. Donax deltoides (Veneroida: Donacidae) is an intertidal, soft-sediment mollusc and an ideal surrogate for testing this relationship, given its lack of habitat constraints in this region, and its immense dispersal potential driven by year-long spawning and long-lived planktonic larvae. We assessed allele frequencies at 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci across 11 sample locations spanning the barrier region and identified genetic structure consistent with the major ocean currents of southeastern Australia. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA sequence data indicated no evidence of genetic structuring, but signatures of a species range expansion corresponding with historical inundations of the Bassian Isthmus. Our results indicate that ocean currents are likely to be the most influential factor affecting the genetic structure of D. deltoides and a likely physical barrier for passive dispersing marine fauna generally in southeastern Australia.

  15. Ocean currents influence the genetic structure of an intertidal mollusc in southeastern Australia – implications for predicting the movement of passive dispersers across a marine biogeographic barrier

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Adam D; Versace, Vincent L; Matthews, Ty G; Montgomery, Steven; Bowie, Kate C

    2013-01-01

    Major disjunctions among marine communities in southeastern Australia have been well documented, although explanations for biogeographic structuring remain uncertain. Converging ocean currents, environmental gradients, and habitat discontinuities have been hypothesized as likely drivers of structuring in many species, although the extent to which species are affected appears largely dependent on specific life histories and ecologies. Understanding these relationships is critical to the management of native and invasive species, and the preservation of evolutionary processes that shape biodiversity in this region. In this study we test the direct influence of ocean currents on the genetic structure of a passive disperser across a major biogeographic barrier. Donax deltoides (Veneroida: Donacidae) is an intertidal, soft-sediment mollusc and an ideal surrogate for testing this relationship, given its lack of habitat constraints in this region, and its immense dispersal potential driven by year-long spawning and long-lived planktonic larvae. We assessed allele frequencies at 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci across 11 sample locations spanning the barrier region and identified genetic structure consistent with the major ocean currents of southeastern Australia. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA sequence data indicated no evidence of genetic structuring, but signatures of a species range expansion corresponding with historical inundations of the Bassian Isthmus. Our results indicate that ocean currents are likely to be the most influential factor affecting the genetic structure of D. deltoides and a likely physical barrier for passive dispersing marine fauna generally in southeastern Australia. PMID:23762511

  16. Internet-based monitoring and prediction system of coal stockpile behaviors under atmospheric conditions.

    PubMed

    Yilmaz, Nihat; Ozdeniz, A Hadi

    2010-03-01

    Spontaneous combustion on industrial-scale stockpiles causes environmental problems and economic losses for the companies consuming large amounts of coal. In this study, an effective monitoring and prediction system based on internet was developed and implemented to prevent losses and environmental problems. The system was performed in a coal stockpile with 5 m width, 10 m length, 3 m height, and having 120 t of weight. The inner temperature data of the stockpile was recorded by 17 temperature sensors placed inside the stockpile at certain points. Additionally, the data relating to the air temperature, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, and wind direction that are the parameters affecting the coal stockpile were also recorded. The recorded values were analyzed with artificial neural network and Statistical modeling methods for prediction of spontaneous combustion. Real-time measurement values and model outputs were published with a web page on internet. The internet-based system can also provide real-time monitoring (combustion alarms, system status) and tele-controlling (Parameter adjusting, system control) through internet exclusively with a standard web browser without the need of any additional software.

  17. Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

    PubMed

    Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

    2014-09-01

    Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology.

  18. Network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories for earthquake prediction research in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhuri, Hirok; Barman, Chiranjib; Iyengar, A.; Ghose, Debasis; Sen, Prasanta; Sinha, Bikash

    2013-08-01

    Present paper deals with a brief review of the research carried out to develop multi-parametric gas-geochemical monitoring facilities dedicated to earthquake prediction research in India by installing a network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories at different regions of the country. In an attempt to detect earthquake precursors, the concentrations of helium, argon, nitrogen, methane, radon-222 (222Rn), polonium-218 (218Po), and polonium-214 (214Po) emanating from hydrothermal systems are monitored continuously and round the clock at these observatories. In this paper, we make a cross correlation study of a number of geochemical anomalies recorded at these observatories. With the data received from each of the above observatories we attempt to make a time series analysis to relate magnitude and epicentral distance locations through statistical methods, empirical formulations that relate the area of influence to earthquake scale. Application of the linear and nonlinear statistical techniques in the recorded geochemical data sets reveal a clear signature of long-range correlation in the data sets.

  19. Prediction of Tumor Recurrence and Therapy Monitoring Using Ultrasound-Guided Photoacoustic Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Mallidi, Srivalleesha; Watanabe, Kohei; Timerman, Dmitriy; Schoenfeld, David; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2015-01-01

    Selection and design of individualized treatments remains a key goal in cancer therapeutics; prediction of response and tumor recurrence following a given therapy provides a basis for subsequent personalized treatment design. We demonstrate an approach towards this goal with the example of photodynamic therapy (PDT) as the treatment modality and photoacoustic imaging (PAI) as a non-invasive, response and disease recurrence monitor in a murine model of glioblastoma (GBM). PDT is a photochemistry-based, clinically-used technique that consumes oxygen to generate cytotoxic species, thus causing changes in blood oxygen saturation (StO2). We hypothesize that this change in StO2 can be a surrogate marker for predicting treatment efficacy and tumor recurrence. PAI is a technique that can provide a 3D atlas of tumor StO2 by measuring oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin. We demonstrate that tumors responding to PDT undergo approximately 85% change in StO2 by 24-hrs post-therapy while there is no significant change in StO2 values in the non-responding group. Furthermore, the 3D tumor StO2 maps predicted whether a tumor was likely to regrow at a later time point post-therapy. Information on the likelihood of tumor regrowth that normally would have been available only upon actual regrowth (10-30 days post treatment) in a xenograft tumor model, was available within 24-hrs of treatment using PAI, thus making early intervention a possibility. Given the advances and push towards availability of PAI in the clinical settings, the results of this study encourage applicability of PAI as an important step to guide and monitor therapies (e.g. PDT, radiation, anti-angiogenic) involving a change in StO2. PMID:25553116

  20. Prediction of UV spectra and UV-radiation damage in actual plasma etching processes using on-wafer monitoring technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jinnai, Butsurin; Fukuda, Seiichi; Ohtake, Hiroto; Samukawa, Seiji

    2010-02-01

    UV radiation during plasma processing affects the surface of materials. Nevertheless, the interaction of UV photons with surface is not clearly understood because of the difficulty in monitoring photons during plasma processing. For this purpose, we have previously proposed an on-wafer monitoring technique for UV photons. For this study, using the combination of this on-wafer monitoring technique and a neural network, we established a relationship between the data obtained from the on-wafer monitoring technique and UV spectra. Also, we obtained absolute intensities of UV radiation by calibrating arbitrary units of UV intensity with a 126 nm excimer lamp. As a result, UV spectra and their absolute intensities could be predicted with the on-wafer monitoring. Furthermore, we developed a prediction system with the on-wafer monitoring technique to simulate UV-radiation damage in dielectric films during plasma etching. UV-induced damage in SiOC films was predicted in this study. Our prediction results of damage in SiOC films shows that UV spectra and their absolute intensities are the key cause of damage in SiOC films. In addition, UV-radiation damage in SiOC films strongly depends on the geometry of the etching structure. The on-wafer monitoring technique should be useful in understanding the interaction of UV radiation with surface and in optimizing plasma processing by controlling UV radiation.

  1. Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth A. Yackly

    2005-12-01

    The ''Enabling & Information Technology To Increase RAM for Advanced Powerplants'' program, by DOE request, was re-directed, de-scoped to two tasks, shortened to a 2-year period of performance, and refocused to develop, validate and accelerate the commercial use of enabling materials technologies and sensors for coal/IGCC powerplants. The new program was re-titled ''Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants''. This final report summarizes the work accomplished from March 1, 2003 to March 31, 2004 on the four original tasks, and the work accomplished from April 1, 2004 to July 30, 2005 on the two re-directed tasks. The program Tasks are summarized below: Task 1--IGCC Environmental Impact on high Temperature Materials: The first task was refocused to address IGCC environmental impacts on high temperature materials used in gas turbines. This task screened material performance and quantified the effects of high temperature erosion and corrosion of hot gas path materials in coal/IGCC applications. The materials of interest included those in current service as well as advanced, high-performance alloys and coatings. Task 2--Material In-Service Health Monitoring: The second task was reduced in scope to demonstrate new technologies to determine the inservice health of advanced technology coal/IGCC powerplants. The task focused on two critical sensing needs for advanced coal/IGCC gas turbines: (1) Fuel Quality Sensor to rapidly determine the fuel heating value for more precise control of the gas turbine, and detection of fuel impurities that could lead to rapid component degradation. (2) Infra-Red Pyrometer to continuously measure the temperature of gas turbine buckets, nozzles, and combustor hardware. Task 3--Advanced Methods for Combustion Monitoring and Control: The third task was originally to develop and validate advanced monitoring and control methods for coal/IGCC gas turbine combustion systems. This task was

  2. Monitoring the incidence and causes of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia: annual report of the OzFoodNet Network, 2008.

    PubMed

    2009-12-01

    In 2008, OzFoodNetsites reported 25,260 notifications of 9 diseases or conditions that are commonly transmitted by food. The most frequently notified infections were Campylobacter (15,535 notifications) and Salmonella (8,310 notifications). Public health authorities provided complete serotype and phage type information on 94% of all Salmonella infections in 2008. The most common Salmonella serotype notified in Australia during 2008 was Salmonella Typhimurium, and the most common phage type was S. Typhimurium 135. During 2008, OzFoodNet sites reported 1,545 outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness; affecting 25,555 people and resulting in 691 people being hospitalised. There were 99 deaths during these outbreaks. The majority (83%, 1,276/1,545) of outbreaks were due to person-to-person spread, but 7% (104/1,545) were transmitted by contaminated food. Foodborne outbreaks affected 1,454 persons including 96 hospitalisations. Eleven deaths were reported during these outbreaks. For these foodborne outbreaks, Salmonella was the most common aetiological agent and restaurants were the most common setting where foods were prepared. Twenty of these foodborne outbreaks were related to the consumption of eggs; the majority (n = 18) of these outbreaks were due to various phage types of S. Typhimurium. This report summarises the incidence of disease potentially transmitted by food in Australia and details outbreaks associated with various food vehicles in 2008. These data assist agencies to identify emerging disease, develop food safety policies, and prevent foodborne illness.

  3. Lumped Parameter Modeling as a Predictive Tool for a Battery Status Monitor

    SciTech Connect

    Jon P. Christophersen; Chester G. Motloch; Chinh D. Ho; John L. Morrison; Ronald C. Fenton; Vincent S. Battaglia; Tien Q. Duong

    2003-10-01

    The Advanced Technology Development Program is currently evaluating the performance of the second generation of lithium-ion cells (i.e., Gen 2 cells). Both the Gen 2 Baseline and Variant C cells are tested in accordance with the cell-specific test plan, and are removed at roughly equal power fade increments and sent for destructive diagnostic analysis. The diagnostic laboratories did not need all test cells for analysis, and returned five spare cells to the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). INEEL used these cells for special pulse testing at various duty cycles, amplitudes, and durations to investigate the usefulness of the lumped parameter model (LPM) as a predictive tool in a battery status monitor (BSM). The LPM is a simplified linear model that accurately predicts the voltage response during certain pulse conditions. A database of parameter trends should enable dynamic predictions of state-of-charge and state-of-health conditions during in-vehicle pulsing. This information could be used by the BSM to provide accurate information to the vehicle control system.

  4. Performance of ANFIS versus MLP-NN dissolved oxygen prediction models in water quality monitoring.

    PubMed

    Najah, A; El-Shafie, A; Karim, O A; El-Shafie, Amr H

    2014-02-01

    We discuss the accuracy and performance of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in training and prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. The model was used to analyze historical data generated through continuous monitoring of water quality parameters at several stations on the Johor River to predict DO concentrations. Four water quality parameters were selected for ANFIS modeling, including temperature, pH, nitrate (NO3) concentration, and ammoniacal nitrogen concentration (NH3-NL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the input parameters. The inputs with the greatest effect were those related to oxygen content (NO3) or oxygen demand (NH3-NL). Temperature was the parameter with the least effect, whereas pH provided the lowest contribution to the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the model, three statistical indices were used: the coefficient of determination (R (2)), the mean absolute prediction error, and the correlation coefficient. The performance of the ANFIS model was compared with an artificial neural network model. The ANFIS model was capable of providing greater accuracy, particularly in the case of extreme events.

  5. Multiscale Modeling of Advanced Materials for Damage Prediction and Structural Health Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkowski, Luke

    Advanced aerospace materials, including fiber reinforced polymer and ceramic matrix composites, are increasingly being used in critical and demanding applications, challenging the current damage prediction, detection, and quantification methodologies. Multiscale computational models offer key advantages over traditional analysis techniques and can provide the necessary capabilities for the development of a comprehensive virtual structural health monitoring (SHM) framework. Virtual SHM has the potential to drastically improve the design and analysis of aerospace components through coupling the complementary capabilities of models able to predict the initiation and propagation of damage under a wide range of loading and environmental scenarios, simulate interrogation methods for damage detection and quantification, and assess the health of a structure. A major component of the virtual SHM framework involves having micromechanics-based multiscale composite models that can provide the elastic, inelastic, and damage behavior of composite material systems under mechanical and thermal loading conditions and in the presence of microstructural complexity and variability. Quantification of the role geometric and architectural variability in the composite microstructure plays in the local and global composite behavior is essential to the development of appropriate scale-dependent unit cells and boundary conditions for the multiscale model. Once the composite behavior is predicted and variability effects assessed, wave-based SHM simulation models serve to provide knowledge on the probability of detection and characterization accuracy of damage present in the composite. The research presented in this dissertation provides the foundation for a comprehensive SHM framework for advanced aerospace materials. The developed models enhance the prediction of damage formation as a result of ceramic matrix composite processing, improve the understanding of the effects of architectural and

  6. An integrated Modelling framework to monitor and predict trends of agricultural management (iMSoil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Armin; Della Peruta, Raneiro; Schaepman, Michael; Gomez, Marta; Mann, Stefan; Schulin, Rainer

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural systems lay at the interface between natural ecosystems and the anthroposphere. Various drivers induce pressures on the agricultural systems, leading to changes in farming practice. The limitation of available land and the socio-economic drivers are likely to result in further intensification of agricultural land management, with implications on fertilization practices, soil and pest management, as well as crop and livestock production. In order to steer the development into desired directions, tools are required by which the effects of these pressures on agricultural management and resulting impacts on soil functioning can be detected as early as possible, future scenarios predicted and suitable management options and policies defined. In this context, the use of integrated models can play a major role in providing long-term predictions of soil quality and assessing the sustainability of agricultural soil management. Significant progress has been made in this field over the last decades. Some of these integrated modelling frameworks include biophysical parameters, but often the inherent characteristics and detailed processes of the soil system have been very simplified. The development of such tools has been hampered in the past by a lack of spatially explicit soil and land management information at regional scale. The iMSoil project, funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the national research programme NRP68 "soil as a resource" (www.nrp68.ch) aims at developing and implementing an integrated modeling framework (IMF) which can overcome the limitations mentioned above, by combining socio-economic, agricultural land management, and biophysical models, in order to predict the long-term impacts of different socio-economic scenarios on the soil quality. In our presentation we briefly outline the approach that is based on an interdisciplinary modular framework that builds on already existing monitoring tools and model components that are

  7. Monitoring the incidence and causes of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia: annual report of the OzFoodNet Network, 2009.

    PubMed

    2010-12-01

    In 2009, OzFoodNet sites reported 27,037 notifications of 9 diseases or conditions that are commonly transmitted by food. The most frequently notified infections were Campylobacter (15,973 notifications) and Salmonella (9,533 notifications). Public health authorities provided complete serotype and phage type information on 92% of all Salmonella infections in 2009. The most common Salmonella serotype notified in Australia during 2009 was Salmonella Typhimurium, and the most common phage type was S. Typhimurium 170/108. During 2009, OzFoodNet sites reported 1,820 outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness, which affected 36,426 people and resulted in 1240 people being hospitalised. There were 118 deaths during these outbreaks. The majority (82%, 1496/1820) of outbreaks were due to person-to-person spread, 9% (163/1820) were suspected or confirmed to have been transmitted by contaminated food and 9% (161/1820) were due to either waterborne transmission or outbreaks with an unknown mode of transmission. Foodborne outbreaks affected 2679 persons including 342 hospitalisations. Eight deaths were reported during these foodborne outbreaks. Salmonella was the most common aetiological agent in foodborne outbreaks and restaurants were the most common setting where foods were prepared. Eighteen outbreaks were related to dishes containing raw or undercooked eggs; the majority (n=14) due to various phage types of S. Typhimurium. This report summarises the incidence of disease potentially transmitted by food in Australia and details outbreaks associated with various food vehicles in 2009. These data assist agencies to identify emerging sources of disease, develop food safety policies, and prevent foodborne illness.

  8. Heavy metal monitoring, analysis and prediction in lakes and rivers: state of the art.

    PubMed

    Elzwayie, Adnan; Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin; Allawi, Mohammed Falah; El-Shafie, Ahmed

    2017-03-29

    Several research efforts have been conducted to monitor and analyze the impact of environmental factors on the heavy metal concentrations and physicochemical properties of water bodies (lakes and rivers) in different countries worldwide. This article provides a general overview of the previous works that have been completed in monitoring and analyzing heavy metals. The intention of this review is to introduce the historical studies to distinguish and understand the previous challenges faced by researchers in analyzing heavy metal accumulation. In addition, this review introduces a survey on the importance of time increment sampling (monthly and/or seasonally) to comprehend and determine the rate of change of different parameters on a monthly and seasonal basis. Furthermore, suggestions are made for future research to achieve more understandable figures on heavy metal accumulation by considering climate conditions. Thus, the intent of the current study is the provision of reliable models for predicting future heavy metal accumulation in water bodies in different climates and pollution conditions so that water management can be achieved using intelligent proactive strategies and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques.

  9. Is the incidence of heart attack still decreasing in Australia? Developing reliable methods for monitoring trends in myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease (AUS-MOCHA): a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Nedkoff, Lee; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael S T; Hung, Joseph; Mathur, Sushma; Beilby, John; Reynolds, Anna; Briffa, Tom G; Lopez, Derrick

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Accurate monitoring of acute coronary heart disease (CHD) is essential for understanding the effects of primary and secondary prevention and for planning of healthcare services. The ability to reliably monitor acute CHD has been affected by new diagnostic tests for myocardial infarction (MI) and changing clinical classifications and management of CHD. Our study will develop new and reliable methods for monitoring population trends in incidence, outcomes and health service usage for acute CHD and chest pain. Methods and analysis The study cohort of all CHD will be identified from the Western Australian Data Linkage System using state-wide data sets for emergency department presentation, hospitalisations and mortality data for 2002–2014. This core linked data set will be supplemented with data from hospital medical record reviews, pathology data and hospital pharmacy dispensing databases. The consistency over time of the coding of the different subgroups of CHD/chest pain (ST-elevation MI, non-ST elevation MI, unstable angina, stable angina, other CHD, non-CHD chest pain) in linked data will be assessed using these data sources, and an algorithm developed detailing groups in which temporal trends can be reliably measured. This algorithm will be used for measurement of trends in incidence and outcomes of acute CHD, and to develop further methods for monitoring acute CHD using unlinked and linked data with varying availability of hospitalisation history. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval has been obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committees of the WA Department of Health (#2016/23) and The University of Western Australia (RA/4/1/7230). Findings will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals, and presentation at national and international conferences. There will also be a strong platform for dissemination of new monitoring methods via collaboration with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare which will assist with

  10. Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Xue, X.; Flamig, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A Hydrometeorological Extreme Mapping and Prediction System (HyXtreme-MaP), initially built upon the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, is driven by real-time quasi-global TRMM/GPM satellites and by the US Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar network with dual-polarimetric upgrade to simulate streamflow, actual ET, soil moisture and other hydrologic variables at 1/8th degree resolution quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) and at 250-meter 2.5-mintue resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS: http://flash.ou.edu).­ Multifaceted and collaborative by-design, this end-to-end research framework aims to not only integrate data, models, and applications but also brings people together (i.e., NOAA, NASA, University researchers, and end-users). This presentation will review the progresses, challenges and opportunities of such HyXTREME-MaP System used to monitor global floods and droughts, and also to predict flash floods over the CONUS.

  11. Remote infrasound monitoring of Mount Etna: Observed and predicted network detection capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tailpied, Dorianne; Le Pichon, Alexis; Marchetti, Emanuele; Ripepe, Maurizio; Kallel, Mohamed; Ceranna, Lars

    2013-04-01

    Volcanic eruptions are unique and valuable calibrating sources of infrasonic waves worldwide detected by the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) and other experimental stations. Building a comprehensive database of volcanic signals is likely to help the scientific community to better characterize eruptive sequences and may help to prevent eruption disasters while on a longer term mitigate the impact of ash clouds on aviation. In this study, we assess the detection capability of the existing infrasound network to remotely detect the eruptive activity of Mount Etna with a high level of confidence, and predict the performance of the future ARISE infrastructure network (Atmospheric dynamics InfraStructure in Europe). This well-instrumented volcano offers a unique opportunity to validate attenuation models using multiyear near-and-far field recordings. The seasonal trend in the number of detections of Etna at the IS48 IMS station (Tunisia) is correlated to fine temporal fluctuations of the stratospheric waveguide structure. The modeling results are consistent with the observed detection capability of the existing network. In summer, during the downwind season, a minimum detectable amplitude of ~10 Pa at a reference distance of 1 km from the source is predicted. In winter, when upwind propagation occurs, detection thresholds increase up to ~100 Pa. When adding four experimental arrays to the existing IMS network, thresholds decrease down to ~20 Pa in winter. The simulation results provide here a realistic description of long-range infrasound propagation and allow predicting fine temporal fluctuations in the European infrasound network performance with potential application for civil aviation safety.

  12. WIFIRE: A Scalable Data-Driven Monitoring, Dynamic Prediction and Resilience Cyberinfrastructure for Wildfires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altintas, I.; Block, J.; Braun, H.; de Callafon, R. A.; Gollner, M. J.; Smarr, L.; Trouve, A.

    2013-12-01

    Recent studies confirm that climate change will cause wildfires to increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades especially for California and in much of the North American West. The most critical sustainability issue in the midst of these ever-changing dynamics is how to achieve a new social-ecological equilibrium of this fire ecology. Wildfire wind speeds and directions change in an instant, and first responders can only be effective when they take action as quickly as the conditions change. To deliver information needed for sustainable policy and management in this dynamically changing fire regime, we must capture these details to understand the environmental processes. We are building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WIFIRE, for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. The WIFIRE integrated CI system supports social-ecological resilience to the changing fire ecology regime in the face of urban dynamics and climate change. Networked observations, e.g., heterogeneous satellite data and real-time remote sensor data is integrated with computational techniques in signal processing, visualization, modeling and data assimilation to provide a scalable, technological, and educational solution to monitor weather patterns to predict a wildfire's Rate of Spread. Our collaborative WIFIRE team of scientists, engineers, technologists, government policy managers, private industry, and firefighters architects implement CI pathways that enable joint innovation for wildfire management. Scientific workflows are used as an integrative distributed programming model and simplify the implementation of engineering modules for data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization while allowing integration with large-scale computing facilities. WIFIRE will be scalable to users with different skill-levels via specialized web interfaces and user-specified alerts for environmental events broadcasted to receivers before

  13. Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in COAL IGCC Powerplants

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth A. Yackly

    2004-09-30

    The ''Enabling & Information Technology To Increase RAM for Advanced Powerplants'' program, by DOE request, has been re-directed, de-scoped to two tasks, shortened to a 2-year period of performance, and refocused to develop, validate and accelerate the commercial use of enabling materials technologies and sensors for Coal IGCC powerplants. The new program has been re-titled as ''Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants'' to better match the new scope. This technical progress report summarizes the work accomplished in the reporting period April 1, 2004 to August 31, 2004 on the revised Re-Directed and De-Scoped program activity. The program Tasks are: Task 1--IGCC Environmental Impact on high Temperature Materials: This first materials task has been refocused to address Coal IGCC environmental impacts on high temperature materials use in gas turbines and remains in the program. This task will screen material performance and quantify the effects of high temperature erosion and corrosion of hot gas path materials in Coal IGCC applications. The materials of interest will include those in current service as well as advanced, high-performance alloys and coatings. Task 2--Material In-Service Health Monitoring: This second task develops and demonstrates new sensor technologies to determine the in-service health of advanced technology Coal IGCC powerplants, and remains in the program with a reduced scope. Its focus is now on only two critical sensor need areas for advanced Coal IGCC gas turbines: (1) Fuel Quality Sensor for detection of fuel impurities that could lead to rapid component degradation, and a Fuel Heating Value Sensor to rapidly determine the fuel heating value for more precise control of the gas turbine, and (2) Infra-Red Pyrometer to continuously measure the temperature of gas turbine buckets, nozzles, and combustor hardware.

  14. Children's Television in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, John P.

    1978-01-01

    Reviews developments in the television industry in Australia with specific reference to children's television. Advertising regulations and research and publications related to children's television are also noted. (RAO)

  15. A Cloud Based Framework For Monitoring And Predicting Subsurface System Behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Versteeg, R. J.; Rodzianko, A.; Johnson, D. V.; Soltanian, M. R.; Dwivedi, D.; Dafflon, B.; Tran, A. P.; Versteeg, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Subsurface system behavior is driven and controlled by the interplay of physical, chemical, and biological processes which occur at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Capabilities to monitor, understand and predict this behavior in an effective and timely manner are needed for both scientific purposes and for effective subsurface system management. Such capabilities require three elements: Models, Data and an enabling cyberinfrastructure, which allow users to use these models and data in an effective manner. Under a DOE Office of Science funded STTR award Subsurface Insights and LBNL have designed and implemented a cloud based predictive assimilation framework (PAF) which automatically ingests, controls quality and stores heterogeneous physical and chemical subsurface data and processes these data using different inversion and modeling codes to provide information on the current state and evolution of subsurface systems. PAF is implemented as a modular cloud based software application with five components: (1) data acquisition, (2) data management, (3) data assimilation and processing, (4) visualization and result delivery and (5) orchestration. Serverside PAF uses ZF2 (a PHP web application framework) and Python and both open source (ODM2) and in house developed data models. Clientside PAF uses CSS and JS to allow for interactive data visualization and analysis. Client side modularity (which allows for a responsive interface) of the system is achieved by implementing each core capability of PAF (such as data visualization, user configuration and control, electrical geophysical monitoring and email/SMS alerts on data streams) as a SPA (Single Page Application). One of the recent enhancements is the full integration of a number of flow and mass transport and parameter estimation codes (e.g., MODFLOW, MT3DMS, PHT3D, TOUGH, PFLOTRAN) in this framework. This integration allows for autonomous and user controlled modeling of hydrological and geochemical processes. In

  16. Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Endo, E.T.; Murray, T.

    1991-01-01

    Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to

  17. Use of mobile and passive badge air monitoring data for NOX and ozone air pollution spatial exposure prediction models.

    PubMed

    Xu, Wei; Riley, Erin A; Austin, Elena; Sasakura, Miyoko; Schaal, Lanae; Gould, Timothy R; Hartin, Kris; Simpson, Christopher D; Sampson, Paul D; Yost, Michael G; Larson, Timothy V; Xiu, Guangli; Vedal, Sverre

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution exposure prediction models can make use of many types of air monitoring data. Fixed location passive samples typically measure concentrations averaged over several days to weeks. Mobile monitoring data can generate near continuous concentration measurements. It is not known whether mobile monitoring data are suitable for generating well-performing exposure prediction models or how they compare with other types of monitoring data in generating exposure models. Measurements from fixed site passive samplers and mobile monitoring platform were made over a 2-week period in Baltimore in the summer and winter months in 2012. Performance of exposure prediction models for long-term nitrogen oxides (NOX) and ozone (O3) concentrations were compared using a state-of-the-art approach for model development based on land use regression (LUR) and geostatistical smoothing. Model performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV). Models performed well using the mobile peak traffic monitoring data for both NOX and O3, with LOOCV R(2)s of 0.70 and 0.71, respectively, in the summer, and 0.90 and 0.58, respectively, in the winter. Models using 2-week passive samples for NOX had LOOCV R(2)s of 0.60 and 0.65 in the summer and winter months, respectively. The passive badge sampling data were not adequate for developing models for O3. Mobile air monitoring data can be used to successfully build well-performing LUR exposure prediction models for NOX and O3 and are a better source of data for these models than 2-week passive badge data.

  18. Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; De, S.; Goswami, B. N.; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  19. Three Conservation Applications of Astronaut Photographs of Earth: Tidal Flat Loss (Japan), Elephant Impacts on Vegetation (Botswana), and Seagrass and Mangrove Monitoring (Australia)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Robinson, Julie A.; Minorukashiwagi; Maggiesuzuki; Duanenellis, M.; Bussing, Charles E.; Leelong, W. J.; McKenzie, Andlen J.

    2000-01-01

    NASA photographs taken from low Earth orbit can provide information relevant to conservation biology. This data source is now more accessible due to improvements in digitizing technology, Internet file transfer, and availability of image processing software. We present three examples of conservation-related projects that benefited from using orbital photographs. (1) A time series of photographs from the Space Shuttle showing wetland conversion in Japan was used as a tool for communicating about the impacts of tidal flat loss. Real-time communication with astronauts about a newsworthy event resulted in acquiring current imagery. These images and the availability of other high resolution digital images from NASA provided timely public information on the observed changes. (2) A Space Shuttle photograph of Chobe National Park in Botswana was digitally classified and analyzed to identify the locations of elephant-impacted woodland. Field validation later confirmed that areas identified on the image showed evidence of elephant impacts. (3) A summary map from intensive field surveys of seagrasses in Shoalwater Bay, Australia was used as reference data for a supervised classification of a digitized photograph taken from orbit. The classification was able to distinguish seagrasses, sediments and mangroves with accuracy approximating that in studies using other satellite remote sensing data. Orbital photographs are in the public domain and the database of nearly 400,000 photographs from the late 1960s to the present is available at a single searchable location on the Internet. These photographs can be used by conservation biologists for general information about the landscape and in quantitative applications.

  20. Monitoring the incidence and causes of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia: annual report of the OzFoodNet network, 2010.

    PubMed

    2012-09-30

    This report summarises the incidence of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia and details outbreaks associated with food in 2010. OzFoodNet sites reported 30,035 notifications of 9 diseases or conditions that are commonly transmitted by food. The most frequently notified infections were Campylobacter (16,968 notifications) and Salmonella (11,992 notifications). The most frequently notified Salmonella serotype was Salmonella Typhimurium, accounting for 44% of all Salmonella notifications. OzFoodNet sites also reported 1,640 outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness affecting 30,193 people and resulting in 722 people being hospitalised. There were 89 deaths associated with these outbreaks. The majority of outbreaks (81%, 1,330/1,640) were due to person-to-person spread, 9% (154/1,640) were suspected or confirmed to have been transmitted by contaminated food, 9% (155/1,640) had an unknown mode of transmission and 1 outbreak was due to transmission from animal to person. Foodborne and suspected foodborne outbreaks affected 2,146 persons and included 157 hospitalisations.Fifteen deaths were reported during these outbreaks. Salmonella was the most common aetiological agent identified in foodborne outbreaks and restaurants were the most frequently reported food preparation setting. A single food source was identified for 43 outbreaks, 21 of which were associated with the consumption of dishes containing raw or minimally cooked eggs; the majority (n=20) due to S. Typhimurium. These data assist agencies to document sources of foodborne disease, develop food safety policies, and prevent foodborne illness.

  1. Monitoring the incidence and causes of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia: Annual report of the OzFoodNet network, 2011.

    PubMed

    2015-06-30

    This report summarises the incidence of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia and details outbreaks associated with food in 2011. OzFoodNet sites reported 30,957 notifications of 9 diseases or conditions that may be transmitted by food. The most commonly notified infections were Campylobacter (17,733 notifications) followed by Salmonella (12,271 notifications). The most frequently notified Salmonella serotype was Salmonella Typhimurium, accounting for 48% of all Salmonella notifications. OzFoodNet sites also reported 1,719 outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness affecting 29,839 people and resulting in 872 people being hospitalised and 103 associated deaths. The majority of outbreaks (79% 1,352/1,719) were due to person-to-person transmission, 9% (151/1,719) were suspected or confirmed to be foodborne, 11% (192/1,719) were due to an unknown mode of transmission, 19 were due to community based Salmonella clusters, four were due to waterborne or suspected waterborne transmission and 1 outbreak was due to animal-to-person transmission. Foodborne and suspected foodborne outbreaks affected 2,104 persons and included 231 hospitalisations. There were 5 deaths reported during these outbreaks. Salmonella was the most common aetiological agent identified in foodborne outbreaks and restaurants were the most frequently reported food preparation setting. A single food source of infection was identified for 49 outbreaks, 26 of which were associated with the consumption of dishes containing raw or minimally cooked eggs and all of these outbreaks were due to S. Typhimurium. These data assist agencies to document sources of foodborne disease, develop food safety policies, and prevent foodborne illness.

  2. Monitoring Dolphins in an Urban Marine System: Total and Effective Population Size Estimates of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Ansmann, Ina C.; Lanyon, Janet M.; Seddon, Jennifer M.; Parra, Guido J.

    2013-01-01

    Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008–2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Nec). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554±22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510–598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193±6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181–207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446±56 (SE) (95% CI: 336–556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Nec = 56, 95% CI: 33–128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

  3. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, N.; Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; de, S.; Goswami, B.; Kumar, A.

    2013-12-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  4. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, Nabanita; Sukumarpillai, Abhilash; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Joseph, Susmitha; De, Soumyendu; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  5. Heron Island, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Heron Island is located at the sourthern end of Australia's 2,050 km-long Great Barrier Reef. Surrounded by coral reef and home to over 1000 species of fish, scuba divers and scientists alike are drawn to the island's resort and research station. The true-color image above was taken by Space Imaging's Ikonos satellite with a resolution of 4 meters per pixel-high enough to see individual boats tied up at the small marina. The narrow channel leading from the marina to the ocean was blasted and dredged decades ago, before the island became a national park. Since then the Australian government has implemented conservation measures, such as limiting the number of tourists and removing or recycling, instead of incinerating, all trash. One of the applications of remote sensing data from Ikonos is environmental monitoring, including studies of coral reef health. For more information about the island, read Heron Island. Image by Robert Simmon, based on data copyright Space Imaging

  6. DoD-GEIS Rift Valley Fever Monitoring and Prediction System as a Tool for Defense and US Diplomacy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Tucker, Compton J.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Witt, Clara J.; Gaydos, Joel C.; Russell, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Over the last 10 years the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (GEIS) partnering with NASA'S Goddard Space Flight Center and USDA's USDA-Center for Medical, Agricultural & Veterinary Entomology established and have operated the Rift Valley fever Monitoring and Prediction System to monitor, predict and assess the risk of Rift Valley fever outbreaks and other vector-borne diseases over Africa and the Middle East. This system is built on legacy DoD basic research conducted by Walter Reed Army Institute of Research overseas laboratory (US Army Medical Research Unit-Kenya) and the operational satellite environmental monitoring by NASA GSFC. Over the last 10 years of operation the system has predicted outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, South Africa and Mauritania. The ability to predict an outbreak several months before it occurs provides early warning to protect deployed forces, enhance public health in concerned countries and is a valuable tool use.d by the State Department in US Diplomacy. At the international level the system has been used by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAD) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to support their monitoring, surveillance and response programs in the livestock sector and human health. This project is a successful testament of leveraging resources of different federal agencies to achieve objectives of force health protection, health and diplomacy.

  7. A feasibility study on the predictive emission monitoring system applied to the Hsinta power plant of Taiwan Power Company.

    PubMed

    Chien, T W; Chu, H; Hsu, W C; Tseng, T K; Hsu, C H; Chen, K Y

    2003-08-01

    The continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) can monitor flue gas emissions continuously and instantaneously. However, it has the disadvantages of enormous cost, easily producing errors in sampling periods of bad weather, lagging response in variable ambient environments, and missing data in daily zero and span tests and maintenance. The concept of a predictive emission monitoring system (PEMS) is to use the operating parameters of combustion equipment through thermodynamic or statistical methods to construct a mathematic model that can predict emissions by a computer program. The goal of this study is to set up a PEMS in a gas-fired combined cycle power generation unit at the Hsinta station of Taiwan Power Co. The emissions to be monitored include nitrogen oxides (NOx) and oxygen (O2) in flue gas. The major variables of the predictive model were determined based on the combustion theory. The data of these variables then were analyzed to establish a regression model. From the regression results, the influences of these variables are discussed and the predicted values are compared with the CEMS data for accuracy. In addition, according to the cost information, the capital and operation and maintenance costs for a PEMS can be much lower than those for a CEMS.

  8. The backend design of an environmental monitoring system upon real-time prediction of groundwater level fluctuation under the hillslope.

    PubMed

    Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Hong, Yao-Ming; Kan, Yao-Chiang

    2012-01-01

    The groundwater level represents a critical factor to evaluate hillside landslides. A monitoring system upon the real-time prediction platform with online analytical functions is important to forecast the groundwater level due to instantaneously monitored data when the heavy precipitation raises the groundwater level under the hillslope and causes instability. This study is to design the backend of an environmental monitoring system with efficient algorithms for machine learning and knowledge bank for the groundwater level fluctuation prediction. A Web-based platform upon the model-view controller-based architecture is established with technology of Web services and engineering data warehouse to support online analytical process and feedback risk assessment parameters for real-time prediction. The proposed system incorporates models of hydrological computation, machine learning, Web services, and online prediction to satisfy varieties of risk assessment requirements and approaches of hazard prevention. The rainfall data monitored from the potential landslide area at Lu-Shan, Nantou and Li-Shan, Taichung, in Taiwan, are applied to examine the system design.

  9. Testing a Multi-Stage Screening System: Predicting Performance on Australia's National Achievement Test Using Teachers' Ratings of Academic and Social Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kettler, Ryan J.; Elliott, Stephen N.; Davies, Michael; Griffin, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    This study addresses the predictive validity of results from a screening system of academic enablers, with a sample of Australian elementary school students, when the criterion variable is end-of-year achievement. The investigation included (a) comparing the predictive validity of a brief criterion-referenced nomination system with more…

  10. Plant functional types are more efficient than climate in predicting spectrums of trait variation in evergreen angiosperm trees of tropical Australia and China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Togashi, H. F.; Prentice, I. C. C.; Atkin, O. K.; Bloomfield, K. J.; Bradford, M.; Weerasinghe, L. K.; Harrison, S. P.; Evans, B. J.; Liddell, M. J.; Wang, H.; Cao, K. F.; Fan, Z.

    2015-12-01

    The representation of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) in current generation of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) is excessively simplistically. Key ecophysiological properties, such as photosynthesis biochemistry, are most times merely averaged and trade-off with other plant traits is often neglected. Validation of a PFT framework based in photosynthetic process is crucial to improve reliability of DGVMs. We present 431 leaf-biochemical and wood level measurements in evergreen angiosperm trees of tropical forests in Australia and China that were divided in four spectrums of plant trait variation: metabolic, structural, hydraulic and height dimensions. Plant traits divided in each of these dimensions adopt survival strategies reflected more clearly by trade-off within each spectrum, and in some extent across spectrums. Co-ordination theory (that Rubisco- and electron-transport limited rates of photosynthesis are co-limiting) and least-coast theory (that intercellular to ambient CO2 concentration minimizes the combined costs per unit carbon assimilation, regulating maximum height and wood density) expectations matched PFT (which takes in account canopy position and light access, and life spam) variation. Our findings suggest that climate (air moisture, air temperature, light) has lower power representing these dimensions, in comparison to the PFT framework.

  11. Statistical monitoring and dynamic simulation of a wastewater treatment plant: A combined approach to achieve model predictive control.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiaodong; Ratnaweera, Harsha; Holm, Johan Abdullah; Olsbu, Vibeke

    2017-02-07

    The on-line monitoring of Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) restrains wastewater treatment plants to achieve better control of aeration and chemical dosing. In this study, we applied principal components analysis (PCA) to find out significant variables for COD and TP prediction. Multiple regression method applied the variables suggested by PCA to predict influent COD and TP. Moreover, a model of full-scale wastewater treatment plant with moving bed bioreactor (MBBR) and ballasted separation process was developed to simulate the performance of wastewater treatment. The predicted COD and TP data by multiple regression served as model input for dynamic simulation. Besides, the wastewater characteristic of the wastewater treatment plant and MBBR model parameters were given for model calibration. As a result, R(2) of predicted COD and TP versus measured data are 81.6% and 77.2%, respectively. The model output in terms of sludge production and effluent COD based on predicted input data fitted measured data well, which provides possibility to enabled model predictive control of aeration and coagulant dosing in practice. This study provide a feasible and economical approach to overcome monitoring and modelling restrictions that limits model predictive control of wastewater treatment plant.

  12. Handbook on Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Texas Education Agency, Austin.

    A study unit on Australia for secondary students is divided into eight sections. Section 1 introduces students to the states, territories, and capitals of the country. Section two, land and people, discusses the size, location, geology, climate, flora and fauna, and population of Australia. Sections 3 and 4 outline Australian history and include…

  13. Australia's earliest planispheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orchiston, W.

    2003-12-01

    Australia's earliest-known planispheres were made by a Sydney amateur astronomer named George Butterfield in 1870 and 1877, although a similar but more crudely-made 'noctural dial' was created by Philip Parker King in 1852. This paper discusses these pioneering endeavours, other nineteenth century attempts to popularise astronomy, and the prevailing astronomical climate in Australia at that time.

  14. Online Training in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuzic, Joze

    2013-01-01

    On-line training is becoming an interesting phenomenon in Australia and has attracted a lot of interest across many industries and businesses (Chan and Ngai, 2007). The research reported here looks at the use of online training in corporations in Australia. It focuses on two aspects of online training, the factors that "warrant" its…

  15. Community Music in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Gillian

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a historical perspective to the development of community music in Australia. Finding political support in Australia's progressive arts policies of the late 1970s, community music is discussed as embracing the principles of access and equity and supporting the development of musical skills in the context of social change and…

  16. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes : Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student's to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation's prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  17. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes :Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student`s to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation`s prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  18. Coping with drought: A High Resolution Drought Monitoring and Prediction System for the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, M.; Nijssen, B.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    The Pacific Northwest (PNW) region in North America (defined here as the Columbia and Klamath River basins plus the coastal drainages) is a diverse geographic region with complex topography and a variety of climates. Agriculture (dryland and irrigated), forestry, fisheries, and hydropower provide significant economic benefit to the region and are directly dependent on the availability of sufficient water at the right time. Additional demands are made on water supplies by recreation, ecosystem services and emerging needs such as hydropower generation in support of wind energy integration. Several major droughts have occurred over the region in recent decades (notably 1977, 2001, and 2004), which have had significant consequences for the region's agricultural, hydropower production, and environment. An emerging need for the region is the coordination of existing regional climate activities, including a better awareness of the current water availability conditions across the region. The University of Washington has operated a surface water monitor for the continental United States since 2005, which provides near real-time estimates of surface water conditions at a spatial resolution of 1/2 degree in terms of soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and total moisture based on a suite of land surface models. A higher resolution Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (DMPS) for Washington State was originally implemented at 1/8 degree and later increased to 1/16 degree. This presentation describes the extension of this system to the entire PNW region at 1/16 degree. The expanded system provides daily updates of three primary drought-related indices based on near real-time station observations in the region: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Soil Moisture Percentiles (SMP). To make the drought measures relevant to water managers, surface water conditions are not only reported on a gridded map, but watershed-level drought summary

  19. Model-based evaluation of subsurface monitoring networks for improved efficiency and predictive certainty of regional groundwater models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosses, M. J.; Wöhling, Th.; Moore, C. R.; Dann, R.; Scott, D. M.; Close, M.

    2012-04-01

    Groundwater resources worldwide are increasingly under pressure. Demands from different local stakeholders add to the challenge of managing this resource. In response, groundwater models have become popular to make predictions about the impact of different management strategies and to estimate possible impacts of changes in climatic conditions. These models can assist to find optimal management strategies that comply with the various stakeholder needs. Observations of the states of the groundwater system are essential for the calibration and evaluation of groundwater flow models, particularly when they are used to guide the decision making process. On the other hand, installation and maintenance of observation networks are costly. Therefore it is important to design monitoring networks carefully and cost-efficiently. In this study, we analyse the Central Plains groundwater aquifer (~ 4000 km2) between the Rakaia and Waimakariri rivers on the Eastern side of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. The large sedimentary groundwater aquifer is fed by the two alpine rivers and by recharge from the land surface. The area is mainly under agricultural land use and large areas of the land are irrigated. The other major water use is the drinking water supply for the city of Christchurch. The local authority in the region, Environment Canterbury, maintains an extensive groundwater quantity and quality monitoring programme to monitor the effects of land use and discharges on groundwater quality, and the suitability of the groundwater for various uses, especially drinking-water supply. Current and projected irrigation water demand has raised concerns about possible impacts on groundwater-dependent lowland streams. We use predictive uncertainty analysis and the Central Plains steady-state groundwater flow model to evaluate the worth of pressure head observations in the existing groundwater well monitoring network. The data worth of particular observations is dependent on the problem

  20. Dynamically pre-trained deep recurrent neural networks using environmental monitoring data for predicting PM2.5.

    PubMed

    Ong, Bun Theang; Sugiura, Komei; Zettsu, Koji

    Fine particulate matter ([Formula: see text]) has a considerable impact on human health, the environment and climate change. It is estimated that with better predictions, US$9 billion can be saved over a 10-year period in the USA (State of the science fact sheet air quality. http://www.noaa.gov/factsheets/new, 2012). Therefore, it is crucial to keep developing models and systems that can accurately predict the concentration of major air pollutants. In this paper, our target is to predict [Formula: see text] concentration in Japan using environmental monitoring data obtained from physical sensors with improved accuracy over the currently employed prediction models. To do so, we propose a deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) that is enhanced with a novel pre-training method using auto-encoder especially designed for time series prediction. Additionally, sensors selection is performed within DRNN without harming the accuracy of the predictions by taking advantage of the sparsity found in the network. The numerical experiments show that DRNN with our proposed pre-training method is superior than when using a canonical and a state-of-the-art auto-encoder training method when applied to time series prediction. The experiments confirm that when compared against the [Formula: see text] prediction system VENUS (National Institute for Environmental Studies. Visual Atmospheric Environment Utility System. http://envgis5.nies.go.jp/osenyosoku/, 2014), our technique improves the accuracy of [Formula: see text] concentration level predictions that are being reported in Japan.

  1. Real-Time Monitoring and Prediction of the Pilot Vehicle System (PVS) Closed-Loop Stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, Tanmay Kumar

    Understanding human control behavior is an important step for improving the safety of future aircraft. Considerable resources are invested during the design phase of an aircraft to ensure that the aircraft has desirable handling qualities. However, human pilots exhibit a wide range of control behaviors that are a function of external stimulus, aircraft dynamics, and human psychological properties (such as workload, stress factor, confidence, and sense of urgency factor). This variability is difficult to address comprehensively during the design phase and may lead to undesirable pilot-aircraft interaction, such as pilot-induced oscillations (PIO). This creates the need to keep track of human pilot performance in real-time to monitor the pilot vehicle system (PVS) stability. This work focused on studying human pilot behavior for the longitudinal axis of a remotely controlled research aircraft and using human-in-the-loop (HuIL) simulations to obtain information about the human controlled system (HCS) stability. The work in this dissertation is divided into two main parts: PIO analysis and human control model parameters estimation. To replicate different flight conditions, this study included time delay and elevator rate limiting phenomena, typical of actuator dynamics during the experiments. To study human control behavior, this study employed the McRuer model for single-input single-output manual compensatory tasks. McRuer model is a lead-lag controller with time delay which has been shown to adequately model manual compensatory tasks. This dissertation presents a novel technique to estimate McRuer model parameters in real-time and associated validation using HuIL simulations to correctly predict HCS stability. The McRuer model parameters were estimated in real-time using a Kalman filter approach. The estimated parameters were then used to analyze the stability of the closed-loop HCS and verify them against the experimental data. Therefore, the main contribution of

  2. Long-term final void salinity prediction for a post-mining landscape in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancock, G. R.; Wright, A.; de Silva, H.

    2005-02-01

    Opencast mining alters surface and subsurface hydrology of a landscape both during and post-mining. At mine closure, following opencast mining in mines with low overburden to coal ratios, a void is left in the final landform. This final void is the location of the active mine pit at closure. Voids are generally not infilled within the mines' lifetime, because of the prohibitive cost of earthwork operations, and they become post-mining water bodies or pit lakes. Water quality is a significant issue for pit lakes. Groundwater within coal seams and associated rocks can be saline, depending on the nature of the strata and groundwater circulation patterns. This groundwater may be preferentially drawn to and collected in the final void. Surface runoff to the void will not only collect salts from rainfall and atmospheric fallout, but also from the ground surface and the weathering of fresh rock. As the void water level rises, its evaporative surface area increases, concentrating salts that are held in solution. This paper presents a study of the long term, water quality trends in a post-mining final void in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia. This process is complex and occurs long term, and modelling offers the only method of evaluating water quality. Using available geochemical, climate and hydrogeological data as inputs into a mass-balance model, water quality in the final void was found to increase rapidly in salinity through time (2452 to 8909 mg l-1 over 500 years) as evaporation concentrates the salt in the void and regional groundwater containing high loads of salt continues to flow into the void.

  3. Improving Radar QPE's in Complex Terrain for Improved Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cifelli, R.; Streubel, D. P.; Reynolds, D.

    2010-12-01

    Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is extremely challenging in regions of complex terrain due to a combination of issues related to sampling. In particular, radar beams are often blocked or scan above the liquid precipitation zone while rain gauge density is often too low to properly characterize the spatial distribution of precipitation. Due to poor radar coverage, rain gauge networks are used by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers as the principal source for QPE across the western U.S. The California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) uses point rainfall measurements and historical rainfall runoff relationships to derive river stage forecasts. The point measurements are interpolated to a 4 km grid using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data to develop a gridded 6-hour QPE product (hereafter referred to as RFC QPE). Local forecast offices can utilize the Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) software to improve local QPE’s and thus local flash flood monitoring and prediction. MPE uses radar and rain gauge data to develop a combined QPE product at 1-hour intervals. The rain gauge information is used to bias correct the radar precipitation estimates so that, in situations where the rain gauge density and radar coverage are adequate, MPE can take advantage of the spatial coverage of the radar and the “ground truth” of the rain gauges to provide an accurate QPE. The MPE 1-hour QPE analysis should provide better spatial and temporal resolution for short duration hydrologic events as compared to 6-hour analyses. These hourly QPEs are then used to correct radar derived rain rates used by the Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) software in forecast offices for issuance of flash flood warnings. Although widely used by forecasters across the eastern U.S., MPE is not used extensively by the NWS in the west. Part of the reason for the lack of use of MPE across the west is that there has

  4. Improving Drought Monitoring and Predictions Using Physically Based Evaporative Demand Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobbins, M. T.; Wood, A. W.; Werner, K.

    2011-12-01

    Existing drought monitors rely heavily on precipitation (Prcp) and temperature (T) data to derive moisture fluxes at the surface, often using estimates of evaporative demand (Eo) based only on T to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from land surface models (LSMs). An example of this is the popular Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). In the analysis of drought trends and dynamics, however, the choice of Eo-driver for LSMs is crucial: it significantly affects both the direction and magnitude of trends in estimated ET and soil moisture, particularly in energy-limited areas (in water-limited areas, ET and soil moisture trends are driven by Prcp trends). All else equal, in the long term, T-based Eo measures result in declining ET estimates (i.e., drying) as T rises, whereas using more appropriate, physically based Eo estimates will more accurately reflect observations of both wetting and drying under warming. With regard to the short-term variabilities more appropriate to monitoring ongoing droughts, we contend that, given that various requirements are met, using an appropriate Eo driver (i) as a drought metric in itself, (ii) to drive drought monitors' LSMs, and (iii) in combination with short-term Eo forecasts will enhance characterization of the evaporative dynamics of ongoing drought and permit more accurate predictions of drought development. The requirements of an appropriate Eo estimate are as follows: that at operationally appropriate time and space scales Eo is diagnostic of ET (i.e., ET and Eo co-vary in a complementary fashion); that the Eo formulation and driving data produce good estimates of Eo (i.e., the model is physically based in that it combines radiative and advective drivers, and produces Eo estimates that are accurate and unbiased with respect to observations from drivers that are available with limited latency on a daily basis) and at operational spatio-temporal resolutions; and that Eo can be forecast at operational time and space scales

  5. Using prediction uncertainty analysis to design hydrologic monitoring networks: Example applications from the Great Lakes water availability pilot project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.; Reeves, Howard W.

    2010-01-01

    The importance of monitoring networks for resource-management decisions is becoming more recognized, in both theory and application. Quantitative computer models provide a science-based framework to evaluate the efficacy and efficiency of existing and possible future monitoring networks. In the study described herein, two suites of tools were used to evaluate the worth of new data for specific predictions, which in turn can support efficient use of resources needed to construct a monitoring network. The approach evaluates the uncertainty of a model prediction and, by using linear propagation of uncertainty, estimates how much uncertainty could be reduced if the model were calibrated with addition information (increased a priori knowledge of parameter values or new observations). The theoretical underpinnings of the two suites of tools addressing this technique are compared, and their application to a hypothetical model based on a local model inset into the Great Lakes Water Availability Pilot model are described. Results show that meaningful guidance for monitoring network design can be obtained by using the methods explored. The validity of this guidance depends substantially on the parameterization as well; hence, parameterization must be considered not only when designing the parameter-estimation paradigm but also-importantly-when designing the prediction-uncertainty paradigm.

  6. Monitoring Food Security Indicators from Remote Sensing and Predicting Cereal Production in Afghanistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pervez, M. S.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.

    2015-12-01

    We extract percent of basin snow covered areas above 2500m elevation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500-meter 8-day snow cover composites to monitor accumulation and depletion of snow in the basin. While the accumulation and depletion of snow cover extent provides an indication of the temporal progression of the snow pack, it does not provide insight into available water for irrigation. Therefore, we use snow model results from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center to quantify snow water equivalent and volume of water available within the snowpack for irrigation. In an effort to understand how water availability, along with its inter-annual variability, relates to the food security of the country, we develop a simple, effective, and easy-to-implement model to identify irrigated areas across the country on both annual and mid-season basis. The model is based on applying thresholds to peak growing season vegetation indices—derived from 250-meter MODIS images—in a decision-tree classifier to separate irrigated crops from non-irrigated vegetation. The spatial distribution and areal estimates of irrigated areas from these maps compare well with irrigated areas classified from multiple snap shots of the landscape from Landsat 5 optical and thermal images over selected locations. We observed that the extents of irrigated areas varied depending on the availability of snowmelt and can be between 1.35 million hectares in a year with significant water deficit and 2.4 million hectares in a year with significant water surplus. The changes in the amount of available water generally can contribute up to a 30% change in irrigated areas. We also observed that the strong correlation between inter-annual variability of irrigated areas and the variability in the country's cereal production could be utilized to predict an annual estimate of cereal production, providing early indication of food security scenarios for the country.

  7. On the identification of representative in situ soil moisture monitoring stations for the validation of SMAP soil moisture products in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yee, Mei Sun; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Monerris, Alessandra; Rüdiger, Christoph; Jackson, Thomas J.

    2016-06-01

    The high spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture complicates the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture products using in situ monitoring stations. Therefore, a standard methodology for selecting the most representative stations for the purpose of validating satellites and land surface models is essential. Based on temporal stability and geostatistical studies using long-term soil moisture records, intensive ground measurements and airborne soil moisture products, this study investigates the representativeness of soil moisture monitoring stations within the Yanco study area for the validation of NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) products at 3 km for radar, 9 km for radar-radiometer and 36 km for radiometer pixels. This resulted in the identification of a number of representative stations according to the different scales. Although the temporal stability method was found to be suitable for identifying representative stations, stations based on the mean relative difference (MRD) were not necessarily the most representative of the areal average. Moreover, those identified from standard deviation of the relative difference (SDRD) may be dry-biased. It was also found that in the presence of heterogeneous land use, stations should be weighted based on proportions of agricultural land. Airborne soil moisture products were also shown to provide useful a priori information for identifying representative locations. Finally, recommendations are made regarding the design of future networks for satellite validation, and specifically the most representative stations for the Yanco area.

  8. Applications of satellite ocean color sensors for monitoring and predicting harmful algal blooms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stumpf, Richard P.

    2001-01-01

    The new satellite ocean color sensors offer a means of detecting and monitoring algal blooms in the ocean and coastal zone. Beginning with SeaWiFS (Sea Wide Field-of-view Sensor) in September 1997, these sensors provide coverage every 1 to 2 days with 1-km pixel view at nadir. Atmospheric correction algorithms designed for the coastal zone combined with regional chlorophyll algorithms can provide good and reproducible estimates of chlorophyll, providing the means of monitoring various algal blooms. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by Karenia brevis in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly amenable to remote observation. The Gulf of Mexico has relatively clear water and K. brevis, in bloom conditions, tends to produce a major portion of the phytoplankton biomass. A monitoring program has begun in the Gulf of Mexico that integrates field data from state monitoring programs with satellite imagery, providing an improved capability for the monitoring of K. brevis blooms.

  9. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    1992-01-01

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  10. Monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Orr, Christopher Henry; Luff, Craig Janson; Dockray, Thomas; Macarthur, Duncan Whittemore

    2004-11-23

    The invention provides apparatus and methods which facilitate movement of an instrument relative to an item or location being monitored and/or the item or location relative to the instrument, whilst successfully excluding extraneous ions from the detection location. Thus, ions generated by emissions from the item or location can successfully be monitored during movement. The technique employs sealing to exclude such ions, for instance, through an electro-field which attracts and discharges the ions prior to their entering the detecting location and/or using a magnetic field configured to repel the ions away from the detecting location.

  11. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed Central

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-01-01

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685

  12. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-06-22

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales.

  13. MOBILESAT: Australia's own

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagg, Michael

    1990-01-01

    Australia will be introducing a dedicated Mobile Satellite Communications System following the launch of the AUSSAT-B satellites late in 1991. The Mobile Satellite System, MOBILESAT, will provide circuit switched voice/data services and packet-switched data services for land, aeronautical and maritime users. Here, an overview is given of the development program being undertaken within Australia to enable a fully commercial service to be introduced in 1992.

  14. Early evidence about the predicted unintended consequences of standardised packaging of tobacco products in Australia: a cross-sectional study of the place of purchase, regular brands and use of illicit tobacco

    PubMed Central

    Scollo, Michelle; Zacher, Meghan; Durkin, Sarah; Wakefield, Melanie

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To test for early evidence whether, following the standardisation of tobacco packaging, smokers in Australia were—as predicted by the tobacco industry—less likely to purchase from small mixed business retailers, more likely to purchase cheap brands imported from Asia and more likely to use illicit tobacco. Design Serial cross-sectional population telephone surveys in November 2011 (a year prior to implementation), 2012 (during roll-out) and 2013 (a year after implementation). Setting/participants Smokers aged 18 years and over identified in an annual population survey in the Australian state of Victoria (2011: n=754; 2012: n=590; 2013: n=601). Main outcome measures Changes between 2011 and 2013 in: proportions of current smokers who purchased their last cigarette from discount outlets such as supermarkets compared with small mixed business retail outlets; prevalence of regular use of low-cost brands imported from Asia and use of unbranded tobacco. Results The proportion of smokers purchasing from supermarkets did not increase between 2011 (65.4%) and 2013 (65.7%; p=0.98), and the percentage purchasing from small mixed business outlets did not decline (2011: 9.2%; 2012: 11.2%; p=0.32). The prevalence of low-cost Asian brands was low and did not increase between 2011 (1.1%) and 2013 (0.9%; p=0.98). The proportion reporting current use of unbranded illicit tobacco was 2.3% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2013 (p=0.46). In 2013, 2.6% of cigarette smokers reported having purchased one or more packets of cigarettes in non-compliant packaging in the past 3 months; 1.7% had purchased one or more packets from an informal seller in the past year. Conclusions One year after implementation, this study found no evidence of the major unintended consequences concerning loss of smoker patrons from small retail outlets, flooding of the market by cheap Asian brands and use of illicit tobacco predicted by opponents of plain packaging in Australia. PMID:25168041

  15. Comparative Sensitivity of Intraoperative Motor Evoked Potential Monitoring in Predicting Postoperative Neurologic Deficits: Nondegenerative versus Degenerative Myelopathy

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Aaron J.; Safaee, Michael; Chou, Dean; Weinstein, Philip R.; Molinaro, Annette M.; Clark, John P.; Mummaneni, Praveen V.

    2015-01-01

    Study Design  Retrospective review. Objective  Intraoperative motor evoked potential (MEP) monitoring in spine surgery may assist surgeons in taking corrective measures to prevent neurologic deficits. The efficacy of monitoring MEPs intraoperatively in patients with myelopathy from nondegenerative causes has not been quantified. We compared the sensitivity and specificity of intraoperative MEP monitoring in patients with myelopathy caused by nondegenerative processes to patients with degenerative cervicothoracic spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). Methods  We retrospectively reviewed our myelopathy surgical cases during a 1-year period to identify patients with degenerative CSM and CSM of nondegenerative causes and collected data on intraoperative MEP changes and postoperative new deficits. Categorical variables were analyzed by Fisher exact test. Receiver operator curves assessed intraoperative MEP monitoring performance in the two groups. Results  In all, 144 patients were identified: 102 had degenerative CSM and 42 had CSM of nondegenerative causes (24 extra-axial tumors, 12 infectious processes, 5 traumatic fractures, and 1 rheumatoid arthritis). For degenerative CSM, there were 11 intraoperative MEP alerts and 7 new deficits (p < 0.001). The corresponding sensitivity was 71% and the specificity was 94%. In the nondegenerative group, there were 11 intraoperative MEP alerts and 3 deficits, which was not significant (p > 0.99). The sensitivity (33%) and specificity (74%) were lower. Among patients with degenerative CSM, the model performed well for predicting postoperative deficits (area under the curve [AUC] 0.826), which appeared better than the nondegenerative group, although it did not reach statistical significance (AUC 0.538, p = 0.16). Conclusions  Based on this large retrospective analysis, intraoperative MEP monitoring in surgery for nondegenerative CSM cases appears to be less sensitive to cord injury and less predictive of postoperative

  16. Predictable pollution: an assessment of weather balloons and associated impacts on the marine environment--an example for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Owen R; Hamann, Mark; Smith, Walter; Taylor, Heidi

    2014-02-15

    Efforts to curb pollution in the marine environment are covered by national and international legislation, yet weather balloons are released into the environment with no salvage agenda. Here, we assess impacts associated with weather balloons in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA). We use modeling to assess the probability of ocean endpoints for released weather balloons and predict pathways post-release. In addition, we use 21 months of data from beach cleanup events to validate our results and assess the abundance and frequency of weather balloon fragments in the GBRWHA. We found between 65% and 70% of balloons land in the ocean and ocean currents largely determine final endpoints. Beach cleanup data revealed 2460 weather balloon fragments were recovered from 24 sites within the GBRWHA. This is the first attempt to quantify this problem and these data will add support to a much-needed mitigation strategy for weather balloon waste.

  17. Autonomous monitoring of control hardware to predict off-normal conditions using NIF automatic Alignment Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Awwal, A; Wilhelmsen, K; Leach, R; Kamm, V M; Burkhart, S; Lowe-Webb, R; Cohen, S

    2011-07-20

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a high power laser system capable of supporting high-energy-density experimentation as a user facility for the next 30 years. In order to maximize the facility availability, preventive maintenance enhancements are being introduced into the system. An example of such an enhancement is a camera-based health monitoring system, integrated into the automated alignment system, which provides an opportunity to monitor trends in measurements such as average beam intensity, size of the beam, and pixel saturation. The monitoring system will generate alerts based on observed trends in measurements to allow scheduled pro-active maintenance before routine off-normal detection stops system operations requiring unscheduled intervention.

  18. Decision analyses for optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

    2011-12-01

    Model-based decision making related to environmental management problems is a challenging problem. There has been substantial theoretical research and practical applications related to this problem. However, there are very few cases in which the actual decision analyses have been tested in the field to evaluate their adequacy. Over the last several years, we have performed a series of decision analyses to support optimization of a monitoring network at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) site. The problem deals with contaminant transport in the regional aquifer beneath the LANL site. At three separate stages, the existing monitoring network was augmented based on analyses of the existing uncertainties; in total, five new monitoring wells were proposed. At each stage, the data collected at the new monitoring wells demonstrated the adequacy of the prior uncertainty and decision analyses. The decision analyses required a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties, including measurement errors and uncertainties in the conceptualization and model parameters, contributed to the uncertainties in the model predictions. The decision analyses were computationally intensive requiring on the order of one million model simulations; computational efficiency is achieved using (1) high-performance computing (LANL multiprocessor clusters), (2) novel computational techniques for model analysis, and (3) a simple analytical 3D simulator to simulate contaminant transport. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks required optimization of the proposed new monitoring well locations in order to reduce existing model-prediction uncertainties and environmental risk. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of novel techniques for optimization (SQUADS based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods; Vesselinov & Harp, 2011) and uncertainty quantification (ABAGUS: Agent

  19. Predicting reading outcomes in the classroom using a computer-based phonological awareness screening and monitoring assessment (Com-PASMA).

    PubMed

    Carson, Karyn; Boustead, Therese; Gillon, Gail

    2014-12-01

    The screening and monitoring of phonological awareness (PA) in the classroom is of great importance to the early identification and prevention of reading disorder. This study investigated whether a time-efficient computer-based PA screening and monitoring assessment (Com-PASMA) could accurately predict end-of-year reading outcomes for 5-year-old children in the first year of schooling. A longitudinal design was employed where the Com-PASMA was used to measure the PA ability of 95 5-year-old children at the start, middle, and end of the first year of school. Of this group, 21 children presented with spoken language impairment. Reading outcomes were formally measured after 1 year of schooling. School-entry measures of PA using the Com-PASMA (p < .001), in conjunction with language ability (p = .004), accounted for 68.9% of the variance in end-of-year word decoding ability. Sensitivity and specificity calculations demonstrated that the Com-PASMA was 92% accurate at school-entry, and 94% accurate by the middle of the school year in predicting reading outcomes at 6-years of age. Results suggest that a time-efficient computer-based method of screening and monitoring PA can support the early identification of reading difficulties in the first year of schooling.

  20. Environmental sampling to predict fecal prevalence of Salmonella in an intensively monitored dairy herd

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Although dairy cattle are known reservoirs for salmonellae, cattle that are shedding this organism are often asymptomatic and difficult to identify. A dairy herd that was experiencing an outbreak of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica Cerro was monitored for two years. Fecal samples from the lacta...

  1. Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity Predict Action Monitoring and the Error-Related Negativity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, A. Eve; Watson, Jason M.; Strayer, David L.

    2012-01-01

    Neuroscience suggests that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is responsible for conflict monitoring and the detection of errors in cognitive tasks, thereby contributing to the implementation of attentional control. Though individual differences in frontally mediated goal maintenance have clearly been shown to influence outward behavior in…

  2. Monitoring and predicting shrink potential and future processing quality of potato tubers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Long-term storage of potato tubers increases risks, which are often attributed to shrink and quality loss. To minimize shrink and ensure high quality tubers, producers must closely monitor the condition of the crop during storage and make necessary adjustments to management plans. Evaluation procedu...

  3. Model-Based Hookload Monitoring and Prediction at Drilling Rigs using Neural Networks and Forward-Selection Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnaout, A.; Fruhwirth, R.; Winter, M.; Esmael, B.; Thonhauser, G.

    2012-04-01

    The use of neural networks and advanced machine learning techniques in the oil & gas industry is a growing trend in the market. Especially in drilling oil & gas wells, prediction and monitoring different drilling parameters is an essential task to prevent serious problems like "Kick", "Lost Circulation" or "Stuck Pipe" among others. The hookload represents the weight load of the drill string at the crane hook. It is one of the most important parameters. During drilling the parameter "Weight on Bit" is controlled by the driller whereby the hookload is the only measure to monitor how much weight on bit is applied to the bit to generate the hole. Any changes in weight on bit will be directly reflected at the hookload. Furthermore any unwanted contact between the drill string and the wellbore - potentially leading to stuck pipe problem - will appear directly in the measurements of the hookload. Therefore comparison of the measured to the predicted hookload will not only give a clear idea on what is happening down-hole, it also enables the prediction of a number of important events that may cause problems in the borehole and yield in some - fortunately rare - cases in catastrophes like blow-outs. Heuristic models using highly sophisticated neural networks were designed for the hookload prediction; the training data sets were prepared in cooperation with drilling experts. Sensor measurements as well as a set of derived feature channels were used as input to the models. The contents of the final data set can be separated into (1) features based on rig operation states, (2) real-time sensors features and (3) features based on physics. A combination of novel neural network architecture - the Completely Connected Perceptron and parallel learning techniques which avoid trapping into local error minima - was used for building the models. In addition automatic network growing algorithms and highly sophisticated stopping criterions offer robust and efficient estimation of the

  4. Australia's polio risk.

    PubMed

    Martin, Nicolee; Paterson, Beverley J; Durrheim, David N

    2014-06-30

    Australia, like all polio-free countries and regions, remains at risk of a wild poliovirus importation until polio is eradicated globally. The most probable route of importation will be through a traveller arriving in Australia either by air or sea from a polio-endemic or re-infected country. While the overall risk of an imported wild poliovirus infection leading to transmission within Australia is assessed as being low, some areas of the country have been identified as at increased risk. Local areas with relatively high arrivals from polio endemic countries, areas of low vaccination coverage and the potential for transmission to occur when these 2 factors are combined, were identified by this review as Australia's main polio risk. The risk of an importation event leading to locally acquired cases is mitigated by generally high polio vaccination coverage in Australia. This high coverage extends to residents of the Torres Strait Islands who are in close proximity to Papua New Guinea, a country identified as at high risk of poliovirus transmission should an importation occur. In 2012, all states and territories had vaccination coverage of greater than 90% at 1 year of age and all exceeded 93% at 2 years of age. Population immunity to wild poliovirus type 1, which remains the major cause of paralysis globally, has been estimated at 82%. This is sufficient to prevent outbreaks of this type in Australia. Of the 211 eligible non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases classified between 2008 and 2011, 91% (193) were vaccinated against polio at least once. High quality surveillance for AFP, which is supplemented by sentinel enterovirus and environmental surveillance activities, gives confidence that an imported case would be detected and appropriate public health action would ensue.

  5. Individual differences in fifth graders’ reading and language predict their comprehension monitoring development: An eye-movement study

    PubMed Central

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we investigated fifth-graders’ (n=52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation, and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children read two sentences; the second included either a plausible or implausible word in the context of the first sentence. Stronger readers had shorter reading times overall suggesting faster processing of text. Generally fifth-graders reacted to the implausible word (i.e., longer gaze duration on the implausible v. the plausible word, which reflects lexical access). Students with stronger academic language, compared to those with weaker academic language, generally spent more time re-reading the implausible target compared to the plausible target. This difference increased from fall to spring. Results support the centrality of academic language for meaning integration, setting standards of coherence, and utilizing comprehension repair strategies. PMID:27065721

  6. Cyclone Chris Hits Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    This false-color image shows Cyclone Chris shortly after it hit Australia's northwestern coast on February 6, 2002. This scene was acquired by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite. (Please note that this scene has not been reprojected.) Cyclone Chris is one of the most powerful storms ever to hit Australia. Initially, the storm contained wind gusts of up to 200 km per hour (125 mph), but shortly after making landfall it weakened to a Category 4 storm. Meteorologists expect the cyclone to weaken quickly as it moves further inland.

  7. Noncontact monitoring of surface-wave nonlinearity for predicting the remaining life of fatigued steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogi, Hirotsugu; Hirao, Masahiko; Aoki, Shinji

    2001-07-01

    A nonlinear acoustic measurement is studied for fatigue damage monitoring. An electromagnetic acoustic transducer (EMAT) magnetostrictively couples to a surface-shear-wave resonance along the circumference of a rod specimen during rotating bending fatigue of carbon steels. Excitation of the EMAT at half of the resonance frequency caused the standing wave to contain only the second-harmonic component, which was received by the same EMAT to determine the second-harmonic amplitude. Thus measured surface-wave nonlinearity always showed two distinct peaks at 60% and 85% of the total life. We attribute the earlier peak to crack nucleation and growth, and the later peak to an increase of free dislocations associated with crack extension in the final stage. This noncontact resonance-EMAT measurement can monitor the evolution of the surface-shear-wave nonlinearity throughout the metal's fatigue life and detect the pertinent precursors of the eventual failure.

  8. Monitoring ankylosing spondylitis: clinically useful markers and prediction of clinical outcomes.

    PubMed

    Braun, Juergen; Kiltz, Uta; Sarholz, Michael; Heldmann, Frank; Regel, Andrea; Baraliakos, Xenofon

    2015-01-01

    Patient assessment in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) is multidimensional, and monitoring of disease activity, function and radiographic progression is complex. There is no simple 'gold standard' for measuring disease activity in all individual patients, as disease activity in axSpA is the sum of many different aspects and a complexity that cannot be represented by a single variable. Limited spinal mobility is a cardinal sign of ankylosing spondylitis and loss of spinal mobility has been reported to be a prognostic factor and most often evaluated with the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index. Imaging of the spine and assessment of safety aspects plays an important role in the monitoring of patients with axSpA. The timeframe for collecting information regarding disease activity, function and radiographic progression are recommended on an individual basis.

  9. Radar monitoring of hydrology in Maryland's forested coastal plain wetlands: Implications for predicted climate change and improved mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiner Lang, Megan

    Wetlands provide important services to society but Mid-Atlantic wetlands are at high risk for loss, with forested wetlands being especially vulnerable. Hydrology (flooding and soil moisture) controls wetland function and extent but it may be altered due to changes in climate and anthropogenic influence. Wetland hydrology must better understood in order to predict and mitigate the impact of these changes. Broad-scale forested wetland hydrology is difficult to monitor using ground-based and traditional remote sensing methods. C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could improve the capability to monitor forested wetland hydrology but the abilities and limitations of these data need further investigation. This study examined: (1) the link between climate and wetland hydrology; (2) the ability of ENVISAT SAR (C-HH and C-VV) data to monitor inundation and soil moisture in forested wetlands; (3) limitations inherent to C-band data (incidence angle, polarization, and phenology) when monitoring forested wetland hydrology; and (4) the accuracy of forested wetland maps produced using SAR data. The study was primarily conducted near the Patuxent River in Maryland but the influence of incidence angle was considered along the Roanoke River in North Carolina. This study showed: (1) climate was highly correlated with wetland inundation; (2) significant differences in C-VV and C-HH backscatter existed between forested areas of varying hydrology (uplands and wetlands) throughout the year; (3) C-HH backscatter was better correlated to hydrology than C-VV backscatter; (4) correlations were stronger during the leaf-off season; (5) the difference in backscatter between flooded and non-flooded areas did not sharply decline with incidence angle, as predicted; and (6) maps produced using SAR data had relatively high accuracy levels. Based on these findings, I concluded that hydrology is influenced by climate at the study site, and C-HH data should be able to monitor changes in

  10. Regional scale monitoring of atmospheric water vapor content with GNSS infrastructure and numerical model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozsa, Szabolcs; Zeno Gyongyosi, Andras; Bartholy, Judit; Kern, Aniko; Weidinger, Tamas; Decsi, Anna; Kenyeres, Ambrus; Dombai, Ferenc; Adam, Jozsef

    2013-04-01

    Water, which is present in the troposphere in all three phases, has a unique feature among atmospheric components. Besides the formation of clouds and precipitation, it has a key role in atmospheric energy transport and it is the most important greenhouse gas. Due to its temporal and spatial variability, the monitoring of water in the atmosphere requires observations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The water content in the air can be measured directly by radiosondes, in order to monitor the vertical structure of the lower 30-35 km. In addition, remote sensing devices installed on spacecrafts, airframes and the Earth's surface are also available for the measurement of water content. These sensors yield the total water amount of a column of air, the so-called precipitable water (PW) content, in units of kg m-2 or mm. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are capable to monitor various parameters of the atmosphere. With the establishment of the active GNSS network in Hungary, it became feasible to quantify and monitor PW from GNSS observations. The advantage of this solution is the high spatial and temporal resolution of the observations. Modeling of the weather system is performed by the numerical solution of the atmospheric hydro-thermodynamic set of equations. Based on the actual weather as initial condition, the parameters of the expected weather can be estimated. In this study two different meteorological models (WRF and DBCRAS) - run at the Department of Meteorology at Eotvos Lorand University for weather research and forecasting purposes - are compared with the PW estimates provided by the GNSS infrastructure for 7 months in 2011. Deviation between measured data from different sources is near 1 mm in most cases. Forecast PW values show larger deviation from measured data, which results from weather condition dependent forecast errors.

  11. The Health Behavior Schedule-II for Diabetes Predicts Self-Monitoring of Blood Glucose

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frank, Maxwell T.; Cho, Sungkun; Heiby, Elaine M.; Lee, Chun-I; Lahtela, Adrienne L.

    2006-01-01

    The Health Behavior Schedule-II for Diabetes (HBS-IID) is a 27-item questionnaire that was evaluated as a predictor of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG). The HBS-IID was completed by 96 adults with Type 2 diabetes. Recent glycosylated hemoglobin HbA1c and fasting blood glucose results were taken from participants' medical records. Only 31.3%…

  12. Nuclear magnetic resonance monitoring of treatment and prediction of outcome in multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed Central

    Miller, D H; Thompson, A J

    1999-01-01

    Magnetic resonance (MR) techniques provide an objective, sensitive and quantitative assessment of the evolving pathology in multiple sclerosis. There is an increasing definition of the pathological specificity of newer techniques, and more robust correlations with clinical evolution are emerging. As the pathophysiological basis of in vivo nuclear MR signal abnormalities is further elucidated, it is likely that the importance of MR as a tool to monitor new therapies will increase. PMID:10603620

  13. Ambulatory BP monitoring and clinic BP in predicting small-for-gestational-age infants during pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Eguchi, K; Ohmaru, T; Ohkuchi, A; Hirashima, C; Takahashi, K; Suzuki, H; Kario, K; Matsubara, S; Suzuki, Mitsuaki

    2016-01-01

    The significance of ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) monitoring during pregnancy has not been established. We performed a prospective study to elucidate whether ABP measures are associated with small-for-gestational-age birth weight (SGA). We studied 146 pregnant women who were seen for maternal medical checkups or suspected hypertension. ABP monitoring was performed for further assessment of hypertension. The outcome measure was SGA. The subjects were classified by their medical history and ABP as having preeclampsia or gestational hypertension (n=68 cases), chronic hypertension (n=48) or white-coat hypertension (n=30). There were 50 (34.2%) cases of SGA by the fetal growth reference standard. In multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusting for age, body mass index, the presence of prior pregnancy, current smoking habit and the use of antihypertensive medications, 24-h SBP (per 10 mm Hg (odds ratio (OR): 1.74; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28-2.38; P<0.001)) was more closely associated with SGA than clinic BP (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 0.92-2.13; P=0.11). The results were essentially the same if 24-h BP was replaced by awake or sleep SBP. Ambulatory diastolic BP showed the same tendency. However, abnormal circadian rhythm was not associated with the outcome. In conclusion, ambulatory BP monitoring measures performed during pregnancy were more closely associated with SGA than clinic BP.

  14. Monitoring and temperature-based prediction of the whitemarked tussock moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in blueberry.

    PubMed

    Isaacs, Rufus; Van Timmeren, Steven

    2009-04-01

    Larvae of the whitemarked tussock moth, Orgyia leucostigma (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), defoliate and contaminate blueberries, Vaccinium corymbosum L., in eastern North America, but infestations are often not detected until economic damage has been caused. To improve monitoring techniques and understand the phenology of the whitemarked tussock moth in blueberry, we compared four trap types and determined temperature-based phenology of this pest over two growing seasons. Large delta traps captured the greatest number of male moths, and similar moth captures were found with or without monthly lure changing. Traps placed at field perimeters adjacent to woods trapped significantly more moths than those inside fields, whereas position in the canopy (high versus low) did not affect captures. Under laboratory conditions, the lower developmental threshold for larvae was 12.3 degrees C, in close agreement with field studies indicating a 12.8 degrees C threshold. Using the 12.8 degrees C threshold, monitoring of O. leucostigma cohorts on caged blueberry plants revealed a spring generation with egg hatch starting at 206 +/- 3 growing degree-days (GDD) and a late-summer generation with egg hatch starting at 1,157 +/- 52 GDD. Combined use of optimized monitoring methods and the phenology model for O. leucostigma is expected to improve integrated management of this pest in blueberry.

  15. The Challenges of Developing a Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction (Alfred Wegener Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Eric F.

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ("From Observations to Decisions") recognizes that "water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity", and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the developments at Princeton University towards a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict

  16. Teaching about Australia. ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prior, Warren R.

    Many reasons can be offered for teaching about Australia. The field of Australian studies offers many opportunities for U.S. teachers and students to critically analyze aspects of their own culture, for there are many experiences in the history of Australia that parallel the U.S. experience. Australia and the United States have strong ongoing…

  17. Media Matters in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daniels, Kell

    1998-01-01

    Describes how a teacher helped transform a K-12 Christian school near Sydney, Australia, from a book-bound media studies program into a hands-on learning experience for students. Various projects allow students to operate advanced equipment, evaluate their own and their peers' work, present research results to the class, and produce live media…

  18. Career Development in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCowan, Colin; Mountain, Elizabeth

    Australia has a federal system, comprising the national Commonwealth government and eight state and territory governments. At the Commonwealth level, the ministries of Education, Training and Youth Affairs, and Employment, Workplace Relations and Small Business have primary roles in the career information and services field. Education and training…

  19. Australia's nuclear graveyard

    SciTech Connect

    Milliken, R.

    1987-04-01

    Britain and Australia have become locked in a battle of wills and wits over a nuclear legacy that is now more than 30 years old. At stake is the issue of who will pay to clean up a stretch of the central Australian outback where at least 23 kilograms of plutonium are buried in nuclear graveyards or scattered in fine particles on the ground. The plutonium was left there after a series of British nuclear weapons tests in the 1950s and 1960s. The cost of cleaning it up today, and rendering the ground safe the the Aborigines who claim it as their tribal homeland, has been estimated at up to $158 million. Australia's minister for resources, Senator Gareth Evans, went to London in October 1986 to try to involve the British in the cleanup. But Britain is still taking the stand that it had discharged any obligations on this score long ago. This question is at the heart of controversy that began mounting in the late 1970s over the British nuclear tests. It was then that Aborigines and test veterans from Britain and Australia started alleging that they had been exposed to unduly high doses of radiation. Clearly, the nuclear tests, which began as a political exercise between Britain and Australia more than 30 years ago, seem destined to remain the source of much legal, diplomatic, and financial fallout between the two countries for a long time to come.

  20. Australia's Regional Youth Exodus.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gabriel, M.

    2002-01-01

    Examines media coverage of youth outmigration from Tasmania in the context of Australia's regional crisis. Focuses on how young people are constructed by others and positioned in others' visions of their rural home towns. Discusses two recurring narratives: strategies to keep youth at home, and preoccupation with the "best and brightest"…

  1. Agricultural Education in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farquhar, R. N.

    This document is an English-language abstract (approximately 1,500 words) of a comprehensive survey of education and training for agriculture in Australia. The present facilities are described, and then set against estimates of present and future needs. Constructive proposals are made as to how these needs can best be met by agricultural…

  2. Australia: Education and Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Devlin, Edward

    2004-01-01

    This new addition to the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers (AACRAO) library of international publications is a guide for United States admissions officers to the structure and content of the education system of Australia together with a formal set of placement recommendations based upon the author's research.…

  3. MRI Biomarkers for Hand-Motor Outcome Prediction and Therapy Monitoring following Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Horn, U.; Grothe, M.

    2016-01-01

    Several biomarkers have been identified which enable a considerable prediction of hand-motor outcome after cerebral damage already in the subacute stage after stroke. We here review the value of MRI biomarkers in the evaluation of corticospinal integrity and functional recruitment of motor resources. Many of the functional imaging parameters are not feasible early after stroke or for patients with high impairment and low compliance. Whereas functional connectivity parameters have demonstrated varying results on their predictive value for hand-motor outcome, corticospinal integrity evaluation using structural imaging showed robust and high predictive power for patients with different levels of impairment. Although this is indicative of an overall higher value of structural imaging for prediction, we suggest that this variation be explained by structure and function relationships. To gain more insight into the recovering brain, not only one biomarker is needed. We rather argue for a combination of different measures in an algorithm to classify fine-graded subgroups of patients. Approaches to determining biomarkers have to take into account the established markers to provide further information on certain subgroups. Assessing the best therapy approaches for individual patients will become more feasible as these subgroups become specified in more detail. This procedure will help to considerably save resources and optimize neurorehabilitative therapy. PMID:27747108

  4. Australia: a full house.

    PubMed

    Short, R

    1994-01-01

    Australia had a population of 17.6 million in 1991. In 1992, Australia's population grew at the rate of 1.06%, 0.8% due to natural increase and 0.26% from immigration. The recent Australian Bureau of Statistics Report estimates that it will grow to 18.9 million by the end of the century and 23.1 million by 2025, assuming fertility remains at current levels and net migration stabilizes at 70,000 per annum from the year 2000. The World Bank estimates that Australia's population will stabilize at 25 million some time in the future. Since Australia's politicians and economists fail to understand that the country already has a large enough population, no national population policy has been declared. The Department of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs, responsible for all population issues, gives no thought to the long-term environmental consequences of the rapidly growing population and determines the annual migrant intake simply on the basis of the nation's economic needs, demands from new immigrants for admission of their next of kin, and humanitarian considerations with regard to refugees. Population growth in Australia needs to be checked as soon as possible. Reducing the annual migrant intake to below 50,000, Australia could achieve a stable population of approximately 23 million by 2040; the annual intake of 150,000 immigrants will grow the population to 37 million. The total fertility rate (TFR) has been below replacement level since 1976, but the population's skewed age distribution will cause it to continue to grow through natural increase at the current rate of approximately 0.8% per year for some time to come. Improving educational opportunities for women and ensuring that all have ready access to modern contraception could help produce a further decline in TFR. Moreover, education about contraception must be made a part of every school curriculum. Steps taken now may avert any future flood of millions of ecological refugees from Southeast Asia, particularly

  5. Near-infrared diffuse optical monitoring of cerebral blood flow and oxygenation for the prediction of vasovagal syncope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Ran; Shang, Yu; Wang, Siqi; Evans, Joyce M.; Rayapati, Abner; Randall, David C.; Yu, Guoqiang

    2014-01-01

    Significant drops in arterial blood pressure and cerebral hemodynamics have been previously observed during vasovagal syncope (VVS). Continuous and simultaneous monitoring of these physiological variables during VVS is rare, but critical for determining which variable is the most sensitive parameter to predict VVS. The present study used a novel custom-designed diffuse correlation spectroscopy flow-oximeter and a finger plethysmograph to simultaneously monitor relative changes of cerebral blood flow (rCBF), cerebral oxygenation (i.e., oxygenated/deoxygenated/total hemoglobin concentration: r[HbO2]/r[Hb]/rTHC), and mean arterial pressure (rMAP) during 70 deg head-up tilt (HUT) in 14 healthy adults. Six subjects developed presyncope during HUT. Two-stage physiological responses during HUT were observed in the presyncopal group: slow and small changes in measured variables (i.e., Stage I), followed by rapid and dramatic decreases in rMAP, rCBF, r[HbO2], and rTHC (i.e., Stage II). Compared to other physiological variables, rCBF reached its breakpoint between the two stages earliest and had the largest decrease (76±8%) during presyncope. Our results suggest that rCBF has the best sensitivity for the assessment of VVS. Most importantly, a threshold of ˜50% rCBF decline completely separated the subjects from those without presyncope, suggesting its potential for predicting VVS.

  6. Why savannah monitor lizards hyperventilate during activity: a comparison of model predictions and experimental data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tobias; Hicks, James W

    2004-12-15

    The functional and structural factors that limit maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max) in lizards are not completely understood. Using an integrative model describing the interactive nature of the individual oxygen transport conductances, we performed an analysis of the oxygen transport system in the highly aerobic lizard Varanus exanthematicus with specific reference to the sensitivity of VO2 max to potential limitations in the ventilatory system. Our analysis predicts that DLO2 must increase more than three-fold at VO2 max and even with this increase in DLO2 , the VO2 max may be sensitive to factors that alter lung ventilation and/or lower lung PO2. To test the predictions of the model analysis, we experimentally determined the effects of reducing inspired O2 on VO2 max during treadmill exercise. We conclude from both our theoretical and experimental analyses that V. exanthematicus operates near the functional limits of its lung.

  7. Can intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring during cervical spine decompression predict post-operative segmental C5 palsy?

    PubMed Central

    Blaskiewicz, Donald J.; Ramirez, Bertha; Zhang, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Background C5 nerve root palsy is a known complication after cervical laminectomy or laminoplasty, characterized by weakness of the deltoid and bicep brachii muscles. The efficacy of intraoperative monitoring of these muscles is currently unclear. In the current prospective study, intraoperative monitoring through somatosensory (SSEPs), motor (TcMEPs) evoked potentials and real-time electromyography activity (EMG) were analyzed for their ability to detect or prevent deltoid muscle weakness after surgery. Methods One hundred consecutive patients undergoing laminectomy/laminoplasty with or without fusion were enrolled. Intraoperative SSEPs, TcMEPs and EMGs from each patient were studied and analyzed. Results Intraoperative EMG activity of the C5 nerve root was detected in 34 cases, 10 of which demonstrated a sustained and repetitive EMG activity lasting 5 or more minutes. Paresis of the unilateral deltoid muscle developed in 5 patients, all from the group with sustained C5 EMG activity. None of the patients with weakness of deltoid muscle after surgery demonstrated any abnormal change in TcMEP or SSEP. Conclusions Real-time EMG recordings were sensitive to C5 nerve root irritation, whilst SSEPs and TcMEPs were not. Sustained EMG activity of the C5 nerve root during surgery is a possible warning sign of irritation or injury to the nerve. PMID:27757428

  8. Using Predictions Based on Geostatistics to Monitor Trends in Aspergillus flavus Strain Composition.

    PubMed

    Orum, T V; Bigelow, D M; Cotty, P J; Nelson, M R

    1999-09-01

    ABSTRACT Aspergillus flavus is a soil-inhabiting fungus that frequently produces aflatoxins, potent carcinogens, in cottonseed and other seed crops. A. flavus S strain isolates, characterized on the basis of sclerotial morphology, are highly toxigenic. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the percentage of the A. flavus isolates that are S strain (S strain incidence) were used to predict patterns across areas of more than 30 km(2). Spatial autocorrelation in S strain incidence in Yuma County, AZ, was shown to extend beyond field boundaries to adjacent fields. Variograms revealed both short-range (2 to 6 km) and long-range (20 to 30 km) spatial structure in S strain incidence. S strain incidence at 36 locations sampled in July 1997 was predicted with a high correlation between expected and observed values (R = 0.85, P = 0.0001) by kriging data from July 1995 and July 1996. S strain incidence at locations sampled in October 1997 and March 1998 was markedly less than predicted by kriging data from the same months in prior years. Temporal analysis of four locations repeatedly sampled from April 1995 through July 1998 also indicated a major reduction in S strain incidence in the Texas Hill area after July 1997. Surface maps generated by kriging point data indicated a similarity in the spatial pattern of S strain incidence among all sampling dates despite temporal changes in the overall S strain incidence. Geostatistics provided useful descriptions of variability in S strain incidence over space and time.

  9. Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2006-01-01

    their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

  10. Investigation of Bearing Fatigue Damage Life Prediction Using Oil Debris Monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Bolander, Nathan; Haynes, Chris; Toms, Allison M.

    2011-01-01

    Research was performed to determine if a diagnostic tool for detecting fatigue damage of helicopter tapered roller bearings can be used to determine remaining useful life (RUL). The taper roller bearings under study were installed on the tail gearbox (TGB) output shaft of UH- 60M helicopters, removed from the helicopters and subsequently installed in a bearing spall propagation test rig. The diagnostic tool was developed and evaluated experimentally by collecting oil debris data during spall progression tests on four bearings. During each test, data from an on-line, in-line, inductance type oil debris sensor was monitored and recorded for the occurrence of pitting damage. Results from the four bearings tested indicate that measuring the debris generated when a bearing outer race begins to spall can be used to indicate bearing damage progression and remaining bearing life.

  11. How many clinic BP readings are needed to predict cardiovascular events as accurately as ambulatory BP monitoring?

    PubMed

    Eguchi, K; Hoshide, S; Shimada, K; Kario, K

    2014-12-01

    We tested the hypothesis that multiple clinic blood pressure (BP) readings over an extended baseline period would be as predictive as ambulatory BP (ABP) for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Clinic and ABP monitoring were performed in 457 hypertensive patients at baseline. Clinic BP was measured monthly and the means of the first 3, 5 and 10 clinic BP readings were taken as the multiple clinic BP readings. The subjects were followed up, and stroke, HARD CVD, and ALL CVD events were determined as outcomes. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, ambulatory systolic BP (SBP) best predicted three outcomes independently of baseline and multiple clinic SBP readings. The mean of 10 clinic SBP readings predicted stroke (hazards ratio (HR)=1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.02-1.90, P=0.04) and ALL CVD (HR=1.41, 95% CI=1.13-1.74, P=0.002) independently of baseline clinic SBP. Clinic SBPs by three and five readings were not associated with any CVD events, except that clinic SBP by three readings was associated with ALL CVD (P=0.015). Besides ABP values, the mean of the first 10 clinic SBP values was a significant predictor of stroke and ALL CVD events. It is important to take more than several clinic BP readings early after the baseline period for the risk stratification of future CVD events.

  12. IMOS, an Integrated Marine Observing System for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seuront, L.; Leterme, S. C.

    2009-04-01

    IMOS is a distributed set of equipment and data-information services which collectively contribute to meeting the needs of marine climate research in Australia. The observing system provides data in the open oceans around Australia out to a few thousand kilometres as well as the coastal oceans through 11 facilities (Argo Australia, Ships of Opportunity, Southern Ocean Time Series, Australian National Facility for Ocean Gliders, Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Facility, Australian National Mooring Network, Australian Coastal Ocean Radar Network, Australian Acoustic Tagging and Monitoring System, Facility for Automated Intelligent Monitoring of Marine Systems, eMarine Information Infrastructure and Satellite Remote Sensing) and 5 nodes (Blue Water, Great Barrier Reef Ocean Observing System, New South Wales IMOS, Southern Australia IMOS and Western Australia IMOS).The data are made available to researchers through the electronic Marine Information Infrastructure (eMII). Specifically, IMOS also incorporates a National Reference Station infrastructure (NRS) based on 9 stations in the coastal ocean around Australia. The NRS is (i) multi-disciplinary and integrated with the collection of over 60 marine parameters, (ii) modular, which allows for deployment with or without a surface signature, and (iii) versatilely based on regionally scaled logistics. After introducing the philosophy of IMOS and its implementation, the first results obtained through a suite of facilities will be illustrated across different nodes.

  13. Temporal epilepsy seizures monitoring and prediction using cross-correlation and chaos theory.

    PubMed

    Haddad, Tahar; Ben-Hamida, Naim; Talbi, Larbi; Lakhssassi, Ahmed; Aouini, Sadok

    2014-01-01

    Temporal seizures due to hippocampal origins are very common among epileptic patients. Presented is a novel seizure prediction approach employing correlation and chaos theories. The early identification of seizure signature allows for various preventive measures to be undertaken. Electro-encephalography signals are spectrally broken down into the following sub-bands: delta; theta; alpha; beta; and gamma. The proposed approach consists of observing a high correlation level between any pair of electrodes for the lower frequencies and a decrease in the Lyapunov index (chaos or entropy) for the higher frequencies. Power spectral density and statistical analysis tools were used to determine threshold levels for the lower frequencies. After studying all five sub-bands, the analysis has revealed that the seizure signature can be extracted from the delta band and the high frequencies. High frequencies are defined as both the gamma band and the ripples occurring within the 60-120 Hz sub-band. To validate the proposed approach, six patients from both sexes and various age groups with temporal epilepsies originating from the hippocampal area were studied using the Freiburg database. An average seizure prediction of 30 min, an anticipation accuracy of 72%, and a false-positive rate of 0% were accomplished throughout 200 h of recording time.

  14. Geothermal development in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burns, K. L.; Creelman, R. A.; Buckingham, N. W.; Harrington, H. J.

    In Australia, natural hot springs and hot artesian bores have been developed for recreational and therapeutic purposes. A district heating system at Portland, in the Otway Basin of western Victoria, has provided uninterrupted service for 12 Sears without significant problems, is servicing a building area of 18 990 sq m, and has prospects of expansion to manufacturing uses. A geothermal well has provided hot water for paper manufacture at Traralgon, in the Gippsland Basin of eastern Victoria. Power production from hot water aquifers was tested at Mulka in South Australia, and is undergoing a four-year production trial at Birdsville in Queensland. An important Hot Dry Rock resource has been confirmed in the Cooper Basin. It has been proposed to build an HDR experimental facility to test power production from deep conductive resources in the Sydney Basin near Muswellbrook.

  15. Geothermal development in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.L.; Creelman, R.A.; Buckingham, N.W.; Harrington, H.J. |

    1995-03-01

    In Australia, natural hot springs and hot artesian bores have been developed for recreational and therapeutic purposes. A district heating system at Portland, in the Otway Basin of western Victoria, has provided uninterrupted service for 12 Sears without significant problems, is servicing a building area of 18 990 m{sup 2}, and has prospects of expansion to manufacturing uses. A geothermal well has provided hot water for paper manufacture at Traralgon, in the Gippsland Basin of eastern Victoria. Power production from hot water aquifers was tested at Mulka in South Australia, and is undergoing a four-year production trial at Birdsville in Queensland. An important Hot Dry Rock resource has been confirmed in the Cooper Basin. It has been proposed to build an HDR experimental facility to test power production from deep conductive resources in the Sydney Basin near Muswellbrook.

  16. Transient stability enhancement of modern power grid using predictive Wide-Area Monitoring and Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yousefian, Reza

    This dissertation presents a real-time Wide-Area Control (WAC) designed based on artificial intelligence for large scale modern power systems transient stability enhancement. The WAC using the measurements available from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) at generator buses, monitors the global oscillations in the system and optimally augments the local excitation system of the synchronous generators. The complexity of the power system stability problem along with uncertainties and nonlinearities makes the conventional modeling non-practical or inaccurate. In this work Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm on the benchmark of Neural Networks (NNs) is used to map the nonlinearities of the system in real-time. This method different from both the centralized and the decentralized control schemes, employs a number of semi-autonomous agents to collaborate with each other to perform optimal control theory well-suited for WAC applications. Also, to handle the delays in Wide-Area Monitoring (WAM) and adapt the RL toward the robust control design, Temporal Difference (TD) is proposed as a solver for RL problem or optimal cost function. However, the main drawback of such WAC design is that it is challenging to determine if an offline trained network is valid to assess the stability of the power system once the system is evolved to a different operating state or network topology. In order to address the generality issue of NNs, a value priority scheme is proposed in this work to design a hybrid linear and nonlinear controllers. The algorithm so-called supervised RL is based on mixture of experts, where it is initialized by linear controller and as the performance and identification of the RL controller improves in real-time switches to the other controller. This work also focuses on transient stability and develops Lyapunov energy functions for synchronous generators to monitor the stability stress of the system. Using such energies as a cost function guarantees the convergence

  17. Monitoring of the stress state variations of the Southern California for the purpose of earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gokhberg, M.; Garagash, I.; Bondur, V.; Steblov, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    The three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California was developed, including a mountain relief, fault tectonics and characteristic internal features such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface. The initial stress state of the model is governed by the gravitational forces and horizontal tectonic motions estimated from GPS observations. The analysis shows that the three-dimensional geomechanical models allows monitoring of the changes in the stress state during the seismic process in order to constrain the distribution of the future places with increasing seismic activity. This investigation demonstrates one of possible approach to monitor upcoming seismicity for the periods of days - weeks - months. Continuous analysis of the stress state was carried out during 2009-2014. Each new earthquake with М~1 and above from USGS catalog was considered as the new defect of the Earth crust which has some definite size and causes redistribution of the stress state. Overall calculation technique was based on the single function of the Earth crust damage, recalculated each half month. As a result each half month in the upper crust layers and partially in the middle layers we revealed locations of the maximal values of the stress state parameters: elastic energy density, shear stress, proximity of the earth crust layers to their strength limit. All these parameters exhibit similar spatial and temporal distribution. How follows from observations all four strongest events with М ~ 5.5-7.2 occurred in South California during the analyzed period were prefaced by the parameters anomalies in peculiar advance time of weeks-months in the vicinity of 10-50 km from the upcoming earthquake. After the event the stress state source disappeared. The figure shows migration of the maximums of the stress state variations gradients (parameter D) in the vicinity of the epicenter of the earthquake 04.04.2010 with М=7.2 in the period of 01.01.2010-01.05.2010. Grey lines

  18. The regolith in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ollier, C. D.

    1988-12-01

    Australian regolith materials are described, many of which are complex. Much Australian regolith dates back to the Tertiary, Mesozoic or earlier. There is a progressive change in the nature of alluvium through the Tertiary. Aridity, revealed through sand dunes and evaporites, is confined to the Quaternary. Ferricretes and silcretes are formed on lower slopes, often followed by inversion of relief. Tectonic isolation of Australia as well as climatic change is responsible for the change in the nature of terrestrial sediments since the Cretaceous.

  19. Monitoring methods and predictive models for water status in Jonathan apples.

    PubMed

    Trincă, Lucia Carmen; Căpraru, Adina-Mirela; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Volf, Irina; Chiruţă, Ciprian

    2014-02-01

    Evaluation of water status in Jonathan apples was performed for 20 days. Loss moisture content (LMC) was carried out through slow drying of wholes apples and the moisture content (MC) was carried out through oven drying and lyophilisation for apple samples (chunks, crushed and juice). We approached a non-destructive method to evaluate LMC and MC of apples using image processing and multilayer neural networks (NN) predictor. We proposed a new simple algorithm that selects the texture descriptors based on initial set heuristically chosen. Both structure and weights of NN are optimised by a genetic algorithm with variable length genotype that led to a high precision of the predictive model (R(2)=0.9534). In our opinion, the developing of this non-destructive method for the assessment of LMC and MC (and of other chemical parameters) seems to be very promising in online inspection of food quality.

  20. A Business Analytics Software Tool for Monitoring and Predicting Radiology Throughput Performance.

    PubMed

    Jones, Stephen; Cournane, Seán; Sheehy, Niall; Hederman, Lucy

    2016-12-01

    Business analytics (BA) is increasingly being utilised by radiology departments to analyse and present data. It encompasses statistical analysis, forecasting and predictive modelling and is used as an umbrella term for decision support and business intelligence systems. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether utilising BA technologies could contribute towards improved decision support and resource management within radiology departments. A set of information technology requirements were identified with key stakeholders, and a prototype BA software tool was designed, developed and implemented. A qualitative evaluation of the tool was carried out through a series of semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Feedback was collated, and emergent themes were identified. The results indicated that BA software applications can provide visibility of radiology performance data across all time horizons. The study demonstrated that the tool could potentially assist with improving operational efficiencies and management of radiology resources.

  1. Monitoring and Prediction of Precipitable Water Vapor using GPS data in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ansari, Kutubuddin; Althuwaynee, Omar F.; Corumluoglu, Ozsen

    2016-12-01

    Although Global Positioning System (GPS) primarily provide accurate estimates of position, velocity and time of the receiver, as the signals pass through the atmoshphere carrying its signatures, thus offers opportunities for atmoshpheric applications. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is a vital component of the atmosphere and significantly influences atmospheric processes like rainfall and atmospheric temperature. The developing networks of continuously operating GPS can be used to efficiently estimate PWV. The Turkish Permanent GPS Network (TPGN) is employed to monitor PWV information in Turkey. This work primarily aims to derive long-term data of PWV by using atmospheric path delays observed through continuously operating TPGN from November 2014 to October 2015. A least square mathematical approach was then applied to establish the relation of the observed PWV to rainfall and temperature. The modeled PWV was correlated with PWV estimated from GPS data, with an average correlation of 67.10 %-88.60 %. The estimated root mean square error (RMSE) varied from 2.840 to 6.380, with an average of 4.697. Finally, data of TPGN, rainfall, and temperature were obtained for less than 2 months (November 2015 to December 2015) and assessed to validate the mathematical model. This study provides a basis for determining PWV by using rainfall and temperature data.

  2. Monitoring and Predicting Wildfire Using Fire Indices and CIMP5 Data (Case study: Golestan National Park)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirzadeh, S. J.; Salehnia, N.; Banezhad, B.; Bannayan, M.

    2015-12-01

    Fire occurrence in fields and forest, is quite high in Iran which has intensified recently and it may be due to climate changes. Golestan National Park, is the first national park in Iran which is registered in the list of UNESCO World Heritage as one of the 50 Earth ecological reserves. In 2014, a number of fire occurred in this park. In this study, attempt to monitor Angstrom and Nestrov indexes in order to forecast future fire in the study area. For this purpose, Atmosphere General Circulation model data; Miroc4h, in 0.562*0.562 scale in CIMP5, are used for fire occurred during 4 days in this area. Calculations show that these indicators provide suitable results in fire forecasting, generally. Angstrom index, decreases to 1 or lower almost in 3 fire, in the starting day or one day before; while critical index values is lower than 2. In recent days before first fire, Nestrov index increases above 10000, which is the critical value. It also increases to 25000 during the other fires. Nestrov index increases during the happening of 4 fire without any decrease. The results show that Angstrom index can forecast the day of starting fires better than Nestrov. Conclusively, the results showed that outputs of CIMP5 can be used in forecasting fire, well. It seems that the value index better not to be dependent on daily precipitation but on consecutive and continues precipitations during serial days.

  3. Predictive monitoring for early detection of subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses in critical care

    PubMed Central

    Moorman, J. Randall; Rusin, Craig E.; Lee, Hoshik; Guin, Lauren E.; Clark, Matthew T.; Delos, John B.; Kattwinkel, John; Lake, Douglas E.

    2017-01-01

    We wish to save lives of patients admitted to ICUs. Their mortality is high enough based simply on the severity of the original injury or illness, but is further raised by events during their stay. We target those events that are subacute but potentially catastrophic, such as infection. Sepsis, for example, is a bacterial infection of the bloodstream, that is common in ICU patients and has a >25% risk of death. Logically, early detection and treatment with antibiotics should improve outcomes. Our fundamental precepts are (1) some potentially catastrophic medical and surgical illnesses have subclinical phases during which early diagnosis and treatment might have life-saving effects, (2) these phases are characterized by changes in the normal highly complex but highly adaptive regulation and interaction of the nervous system and other organs such as the heart and lungs, (3) teams of clinicians and quantitative scientists can work together to identify clinically important abnormalities of monitoring data, to develop algorithms that match the clinicians' eye in detecting abnormalities, and to undertake the clinical trials to test their impact on outcomes. PMID:22255587

  4. Chemiluminescence as a condition monitoring method for thermal aging and lifetime prediction of an HTPB elastomer.

    SciTech Connect

    Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Minier, Leanna M. G.; Celina, Mathias Christopher; Trujillo, Ana B.

    2007-03-01

    Chemiluminescence (CL) has been applied as a condition monitoring technique to assess aging related changes in a hydroxyl-terminated-polybutadiene based polyurethane elastomer. Initial thermal aging of this polymer was conducted between 110 and 50 C. Two CL methods were applied to examine the degradative changes that had occurred in these aged samples: isothermal 'wear-out' experiments under oxygen yielding initial CL intensity and 'wear-out' time data, and temperature ramp experiments under inert conditions as a measure of previously accumulated hydroperoxides or other reactive species. The sensitivities of these CL features to prior aging exposure of the polymer were evaluated on the basis of qualifying this method as a quick screening technique for quantification of degradation levels. Both the techniques yielded data representing the aging trends in this material via correlation with mechanical property changes. Initial CL rates from the isothermal experiments are the most sensitive and suitable approach for documenting material changes during the early part of thermal aging.

  5. Monitoring and predicting community mental health centre utilization in Auckland, New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Hall, G B

    1988-01-01

    Deinstitutionalization of mental health care has been in progress in many countries for over a quarter of a century. A comprehensive and detailed literature has evolved focussing on this process and its implications for alternative forms of combatting the incidence of mental illness. Most notably, literature has concentrated on the need for community-based mental health services both to prevent hospitalization in the first place and to ease the return of the hospital patient into the outside environment. In this paper the evolution of such a community-based system in metropolitan Auckland, New Zealand is discussed. More specifically, the focus is on the utilization of four community-based centres, with a view to plan better growth or reduction of service provision. Two dimensions of centre use, spatial and sociodemographic, are analysed and incorporated into four predictive models that, with appropriate refinement, can be used to determine the likely level of centre use in unserviced parts of the metropolitan area. Distance of individuals from centre locations is shown to be a significant factor in affecting use for three suburban primary prevention and intervention centres, whilst distance is non-significant for an inner-city aftercare facility. Also, various combinations of socio-demographic variables, reflecting service-specific needs for specific groups in the population, are shown to contribute significantly to predicting centre use. The paper presents the results against a policy backdrop in New Zealand where community mental health services are very much experimental in nature. The results reaffirm the importance of community mental health care in fulfilling an important need in society that health care administrators should take seriously in future policy developments.

  6. Prediction of hypertensive crisis based on average, variability and approximate entropy of 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.

    PubMed

    Schoenenberger, A W; Erne, P; Ammann, S; Perrig, M; Bürgi, U; Stuck, A E

    2008-01-01

    Approximate entropy (ApEn) of blood pressure (BP) can be easily measured based on software analysing 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), but the clinical value of this measure is unknown. In a prospective study we investigated whether ApEn of BP predicts, in addition to average and variability of BP, the risk of hypertensive crisis. In 57 patients with known hypertension we measured ApEn, average and variability of systolic and diastolic BP based on 24-h ABPM. Eight of these fifty-seven patients developed hypertensive crisis during follow-up (mean follow-up duration 726 days). In bivariate regression analysis, ApEn of systolic BP (P<0.01), average of systolic BP (P=0.02) and average of diastolic BP (P=0.03) were significant predictors of hypertensive crisis. The incidence rate ratio of hypertensive crisis was 14.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8, 631.5; P<0.01) for high ApEn of systolic BP as compared to low values. In multivariable regression analysis, ApEn of systolic (P=0.01) and average of diastolic BP (P<0.01) were independent predictors of hypertensive crisis. A combination of these two measures had a positive predictive value of 75%, and a negative predictive value of 91%, respectively. ApEn, combined with other measures of 24-h ABPM, is a potentially powerful predictor of hypertensive crisis. If confirmed in independent samples, these findings have major clinical implications since measures predicting the risk of hypertensive crisis define patients requiring intensive follow-up and intensified therapy.

  7. Predicting the timing of first generation egg hatch for the pest redlegged earth mite Halotydeus destructor (Acari: Penthaleidae).

    PubMed

    McDonald, Garrick; Umina, Paul A; Macfadyen, Sarina; Mangano, Peter; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2015-03-01

    Integrated pest management in Australian winter grain crops is challenging, partly because the timing and severity of pest outbreaks cannot currently be predicted, and this often results in prophylactic applications of broad spectrum pesticides. We developed a simple model to predict the median emergence in autumn of pest populations of the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor, a major field crop and pasture pest in southern Australia. Previous data and observations suggest that rainfall and temperature are critical for post-diapause egg hatch. We evaluated seven models that combined rainfall and temperature thresholds derived using three approaches against previously recorded hatch dates and 2013 field records. The performance of the models varied between Western Australia and south-eastern Australian States. In Western Australia, the key attributes of the best fitting model were more than 5 mm rain followed by mean day temperatures of below 20.5 °C for 10 days. In south-eastern Australia, the most effective model involved a temperature threshold reduced to 16 °C. These regional differences may reflect adaptation of H. destructor in south-eastern Australia to varied and uncertain temperature and rainfall regimes of late summer and autumn, relative to the hot and dry Mediterranean-type climate in Western Australia. Field sampling in 2013 revealed a spread of early hatch dates in isolated patches of habitat, ahead of predicted paddock scale hatchings. These regional models should assist in monitoring and subsequent management of H. destructor at the paddock scale.

  8. Role of CT Perfusion in Monitoring and Prediction of Response to Therapy of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Preda, Lorenzo; Moscatelli, Marco Elvio Manlio; Cossu Rocca, Maria

    2014-01-01

    This review aims to summarize the technique and clinical applications of CT perfusion (CTp) of head and neck cancer. The most common pathologic type (90%) of head and neck cancer is squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC): its diagnostic workup relies on CT and MRI, as they provide an accurate staging for the disease by determining tumour volume, assessing its extension, and detecting of lymph node metastases. Compared with conventional CT and MRI, CTp allows for obtaining measures of tumour vascular physiology and functional behaviour, and it has been demonstrated to be a feasible and useful tool in predicting local outcomes in patients undergoing radiation therapy and chemotherapy and may help monitor both treatments. PMID:25140324

  9. Monitoring and predicting eutrophication of Sri Lankan inland waters using ASTER satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahanayaka, D. D. G. L.; Wijeyaratne, M. J. S.; Tonooka, H.; Minato, A.; Ozawa, S.; Perera, B. D. C.

    2014-10-01

    This study focused on determining the past changes and predicting the future trends in eutrophication of the Bolgoda North lake, Sri Lanka using in situ Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) measurements and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer (ASTER) satellite data. This Lake is located in a mixed land use area with industries, some agricultural lands, middle income and high income housing, tourist hotels and low income housing. From March to October 2013, water samples from five sampling sites were collected once a month parallel to ASTER overpass and Chl-a, nitrate and phosphate contents of each sample were measured using standard laboratory methods. Cloud-free ASTER scenes over the lake during the 2000-2013 periods were acquired for Chl-a estimation and trend analysis. All ASTER images were atmospherically corrected using FLAASH software and in-situ Chl-a data were regressed with atmospherically corrected three ASTER VNIR band ratios of the same date. The regression equation of the band ratio and Chl-a content with the highest correlation, which was the green/red band ratio was used to develop algorithm for generation of 15-m resolution Chl-a distribution maps. According to the ASTER based Chl-a distribution maps it was evident that eutrophication of this lake has gradually increased from 2008-2011. Results also indicated that there had been significantly high eutrophic conditions throughout the year 2013 in several regions, especially in water stagnant areas and adjacent to freshwater outlets. Field observations showed that this lake is receiving various discharges from factories. Unplanned urbanization and inadequacy of proper facilities in the nearby industries for waste management have resulted in the eutrophication of the water body. If the present trends of waste disposal and unplanned urbanization continue, enormous environmental problems would be resulted in future. Results of the present study showed that information from satellite remote

  10. An integrated modeling approach for monitoring and predicting common reed (Phragmites australis) colonization in a managed South Carolina estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Samuel Peter

    Recently, research efforts have focused on the development and testing of geographic information processing (GIP) techniques to more effectively identify and monitor invasive plant species in coastal ecosystems. While these efforts are progressing, particularly with refinements in hyperspectral image processing, there remains a lack of practical, science-based tools for decision-making with respect to the monitoring and mitigation of invasive plant species. Therefore, a geographic information systems (GIS) model is proposed to quantify the probability of a future exotic plant invasion in a user-defined area of interest. The primary objective of this investigation is to present conceptual and technical descriptions of a proposed modeling approach for prediction of common reed (Phragmites australis) colonization in a managed coastal wetland environment. Successful validation and adoption of the model will promote continued discourse regarding the impact of invasive species in coastal ecosystems, while providing the management community with a valuable decision support tool. Three main chapters comprise this manuscript; Chapter 1 focuses on the evaluation of remote sensing data and techniques for directly identifying Phragmites australis in a coastal ecosystem; Chapter 2 describes proposed, GIS-based models for predicting Phragmites colonization and future growth projections; and Chapter 3 discusses the results of the compiled relative suitability index (RSI) compilation and growth models, and considers the key management implications of the investigation. In the absence of a universal eradication solution for the invasive species Phragmites australis, an integrated management approach that utilizes a suite of dynamic, geo-spatial techniques in concert with more traditional practices is ultimately recommended. Keywords. Invasive species, estuary, NERRS, Phragmites, GIS-based models, remote sensing, coastal resource management, geographic information processing.

  11. Monitoring and predicting the fecal indicator bacteria concentrations from agricultural, mixed land use and urban stormwater runoff.

    PubMed

    Paule-Mercado, M A; Ventura, J S; Memon, S A; Jahng, D; Kang, J-H; Lee, C-H

    2016-04-15

    While the urban runoff are increasingly being studied as a source of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), less is known about the occurrence of FIB in watershed with mixed land use and ongoing land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this study, Escherichia coli (EC) and fecal streptococcus (FS) were monitored from 2012 to 2013 in agricultural, mixed and urban LULC and analyzed according to the most probable number (MPN). Pearson correlation was used to determine the relationship between FIB and environmental parameters (physicochemical and hydrometeorological). Multiple linear regressions (MLR) were used to identify the significant parameters that affect the FIB concentrations and to predict the response of FIB in LULC change. Overall, the FIB concentrations were higher in urban LULC (EC=3.33-7.39; FS=3.30-7.36log10MPN/100mL) possibly because of runoff from commercial market and 100% impervious cover (IC). Also, during early-summer season; this reflects a greater persistence and growth rate of FIB in a warmer environment. During intra-event, however, the FIB concentrations varied according to site condition. Anthropogenic activities and IC influenced the correlation between the FIB concentrations and environmental parameters. Stormwater temperature (TEMP), turbidity, and TSS positively correlated with the FIB concentrations (p>0.01), since IC increased, implying an accumulation of bacterial sources in urban activities. TEMP, BOD5, turbidity, TSS, and antecedent dry days (ADD) were the most significant explanatory variables for FIB as determined in MLR, possibly because they promoted the FIB growth and survival. The model confirmed the FIB concentrations: EC (R(2)=0.71-0.85; NSE=0.72-0.86) and FS (R(2)=0.65-0.83; NSE=0.66-0.84) are predicted to increase due to urbanization. Therefore, these findings will help in stormwater monitoring strategies, designing the best management practice for FIB removal and as input data for stormwater models.

  12. Developing LED UV fluorescence sensors for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment.

    PubMed

    Li, Wen-Tao; Jin, Jing; Li, Qiang; Wu, Chen-Fei; Lu, Hai; Zhou, Qing; Li, Ai-Min

    2016-04-15

    Online monitoring dissolved organic matter (DOM) is urgent for water treatment management. In this study, high performance size exclusion chromatography with multi-UV absorbance and multi-emission fluorescence scans were applied to spectrally characterize samples from 16 drinking water sources across Yangzi River and Huai River Watersheds. The UV absorbance indices at 254 nm and 280 nm referred to the same DOM components and concentration, and the 280 nm UV light could excite both protein-like and humic-like fluorescence. Hence a novel UV fluorescence sensor was developed out using only one UV280 light-emitting diode (LED) as light source. For all samples, enhanced coagulation was mainly effective for large molecular weight biopolymers; while anion exchange further substantially removed humic substances. During chlorination tests, UVA280 and UVA254 showed similar correlations with yields of disinfection byproducts (DBPs); the humic-like fluorescence obtained from LED sensors correlated well with both trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids yields, while the correlation between protein-like fluorescence and trihalomethanes was relatively poor. Anion exchange exhibited more reduction of DBPs yields as well as UV absorbance and fluorescence signals than enhanced coagulation. The results suggest that the LED UV fluorescence sensors are very promising for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment.

  13. Predictive modeling in Clostridium acetobutylicum fermentations employing Raman spectroscopy and multivariate data analysis for real-time culture monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zu, Theresah N. K.; Liu, Sanchao; Germane, Katherine L.; Servinsky, Matthew D.; Gerlach, Elliot S.; Mackie, David M.; Sund, Christian J.

    2016-05-01

    The coupling of optical fibers with Raman instrumentation has proven to be effective for real-time monitoring of chemical reactions and fermentations when combined with multivariate statistical data analysis. Raman spectroscopy is relatively fast, with little interference from the water peak present in fermentation media. Medical research has explored this technique for analysis of mammalian cultures for potential diagnosis of some cancers. Other organisms studied via this route include Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and some Bacillus sp., though very little work has been performed on Clostridium acetobutylicum cultures. C. acetobutylicum is a gram-positive anaerobic bacterium, which is highly sought after due to its ability to use a broad spectrum of substrates and produce useful byproducts through the well-known Acetone-Butanol-Ethanol (ABE) fermentation. In this work, real-time Raman data was acquired from C. acetobutylicum cultures grown on glucose. Samples were collected concurrently for comparative off-line product analysis. Partial-least squares (PLS) models were built both for agitated cultures and for static cultures from both datasets. Media components and metabolites monitored include glucose, butyric acid, acetic acid, and butanol. Models were cross-validated with independent datasets. Experiments with agitation were more favorable for modeling with goodness of fit (QY) values of 0.99 and goodness of prediction (Q2Y) values of 0.98. Static experiments did not model as well as agitated experiments. Raman results showed the static experiments were chaotic, especially during and shortly after manual sampling.

  14. Land Use Regression Models for Ultrafine Particles and Black Carbon Based on Short-Term Monitoring Predict Past Spatial Variation.

    PubMed

    Montagne, Denise R; Hoek, Gerard; Klompmaker, Jochem O; Wang, Meng; Meliefste, Kees; Brunekreef, Bert

    2015-07-21

    Health effects of long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) have not been investigated in epidemiological studies because of the lack of spatially resolved UFP exposure data. Short-term monitoring campaigns used to develop land use regression (LUR) models for UFP typically had moderate performance. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate spatial and spatiotemporal LUR models for UFP and Black Carbon (BC), including their ability to predict past spatial contrasts. We measured 30 min at each of 81 sites in Amsterdam and 80 in Rotterdam, The Netherlands in three different seasons. Models were developed using traffic, land use, reference site measurements, routinely measured pollutants and weather data. The percentage explained variation (R(2)) was 0.35-0.40 for BC and 0.33-0.42 for UFP spatial models. Traffic variables were present in every model. The coefficients for the spatial predictors were similar in spatial and spatiotemporal models. The BC LUR model explained 61% of the spatial variation in a previous campaign with longer sampling duration, better than the model R(2). The UFP LUR model explained 36% of UFP spatial variation measured 10 years earlier, similar to the model R(2). Short-term monitoring campaigns may be an efficient tool to develop LUR models.

  15. Uncertainty in Predicted Neighborhood-Scale Green Stormwater Infrastructure Performance Informed by field monitoring of Hydrologic Abstractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smalls-Mantey, L.; Jeffers, S.; Montalto, F. A.

    2013-12-01

    Human alterations to the environment provide infrastructure for housing and transportation but have drastically changed local hydrology. Excess stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces generates erosion, overburdens sewer infrastructure, and can pollute receiving bodies. Increased attention to green stormwater management controls is based on the premise that some of these issues can be mitigated by capturing or slowing the flow of stormwater. However, our ability to predict actual green infrastructure facility performance using physical or statistical methods needs additional validation, and efforts to incorporate green infrastructure controls into hydrologic models are still in their infancy stages. We use more than three years of field monitoring data to derive facility specific probability density functions characterizing the hydrologic abstractions provided by a stormwater treatment wetland, streetside bioretention facility, and a green roof. The monitoring results are normalized by impervious area treated, and incorporated into a neighborhood-scale agent model allowing probabilistic comparisons of the stormwater capture outcomes associated with alternative urban greening scenarios. Specifically, we compare the uncertainty introduced into the model by facility performance (as represented by the variability in the abstraction), to that introduced by both precipitation variability, and spatial patterns of emergence of different types of green infrastructure. The modeling results are used to update a discussion about the potential effectiveness of urban green infrastructure implementation plans.

  16. Easy-to-use, general, and accurate multi-Kinect calibration and its application to gait monitoring for fall prediction.

    PubMed

    Staranowicz, Aaron N; Ray, Christopher; Mariottini, Gian-Luca

    2015-01-01

    Falls are the most-common causes of unintentional injury and death in older adults. Many clinics, hospitals, and health-care providers are urgently seeking accurate, low-cost, and easy-to-use technology to predict falls before they happen, e.g., by monitoring the human walking pattern (or "gait"). Despite the wide popularity of Microsoft's Kinect and the plethora of solutions for gait monitoring, no strategy has been proposed to date to allow non-expert users to calibrate the cameras, which is essential to accurately fuse the body motion observed by each camera in a single frame of reference. In this paper, we present a novel multi-Kinect calibration algorithm that has advanced features when compared to existing methods: 1) is easy to use, 2) it can be used in any generic Kinect arrangement, and 3) it provides accurate calibration. Extensive real-world experiments have been conducted to validate our algorithm and to compare its performance against other multi-Kinect calibration approaches, especially to show the improved estimate of gait parameters. Finally, a MATLAB Toolbox has been made publicly available for the entire research community.

  17. Daily ambient NO2 concentration predictions using satellite ozone monitoring instrument NO2 data and land use regression.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hyung Joo; Koutrakis, Petros

    2014-02-18

    Although ground measurements have contributed to revealing the association between ambient air pollution and health effects in epidemiological studies, exposure measurement errors are likely to be caused because of the sparse spatial distribution of ground monitors. In this study, we estimate daily ground NO2 concentrations in the New England region, U.S., for the period 2005-2010 using satellite remote sensing data in combination with land use regression. To estimate ground-level NO2 concentrations, we constructed a mixed effects model by taking advantage of spatial and temporal variability in satellite Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) tropospheric column NO2 densities. Using fine-scale land use parameters, we derived NO2 concentrations at point locations, which can be further used for subject-specific exposure estimates in epidemiological studies. A mixed effects model showed a reasonably high predictive power for daily NO2 concentrations (cross-validation R(2) = 0.79). We observed that the model performed similarly in each season, year, and state. The spatial patterns of model estimates reflected emission source areas (such as high populated/traffic areas) in the study region and revealed the seasonal characteristics of NO2. This study suggests that a combination of satellite remote sensing and land use regression can be useful for both spatially and temporally resolved exposure assessments of NO2.

  18. Co-evolution of Plant Biodiversity and Pedogeochemistry in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bui, E. N.; Gonzalez-Orozco, C.; Miller, J.

    2013-12-01

    With the geostatistical package geoR (Ribeiro and Diggle 2001), we used the National Geochemical Survey of Australia's 1315 reported total elemental concentrations for aluminium (Al), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sodium (Na), phosphorus (P), all in mg kg-1, for the fine earth (<2 mm) fraction as determined by X-ray fluorescence, and pH1:5 (soil:water) and EC1:5 (soil:water) (de Caritat and Cooper 2011) to predict pedogeochemistry at 127,259 sites, representing presence data for 1020 Acacia species across Australia. Species in the genus Acacia are widely distributed across Australia. Here we show that strong associations exist between plant communities, individual species, and pedogeochemistry. Acacia communities in southern Australia are associated with high pH and high electrical conductivity, high total Mg on greenstone-derived soils, and high total Ca and Mg concentrations on calcareous and saline soils. Many species that tolerate extreme pedogeochemical conditions are range restricted. Both Acacia distribution and pedogeochemistry reflect climatic conditions. Species with strong correlation to local edaphic conditions present a higher potential for loss resulting from climate change, due to abiotic constraints. References de Caritat, P. & Cooper, M. (2011). National Geochemical Survey of Australia: The Geochemical Atlas of Australia. Geoscience Australia, Record 2011/20 (2 Volumes), 557 pp. Ribeiro, P.J. & Diggle, P.J. (2001). geoR: A package for geostatistical analysis. R-News Vol 1, No 2. Available at: http://cran.r-project.org/.

  19. Satellite Irrigation Monitoring and Management Support in California with the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melton, F. S.; Johnson, L.; Lund, C.; Michaelis, A.; Pierce, L.; Guzman, A.; Hiatt, S.; Purdy, A. J.; Lee, C.; Rosevelt, C.; Fletcher, N.; Votava, P.; Milesi, C.; Hashimoto, H.; Wang, W.; Sheffner, E. J.; Nemani, R.

    2011-12-01

    Satellite data can be used to map crop evapotranspiration over large areas and make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate, but requires the development of new tools and computing frameworks to support operational use in irrigation scheduling and water management. We present findings from the development and deployment of a prototype system for irrigation scheduling and management support. The system utilizes the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to integrate satellite observations and meteorological observations to map basal crop coefficient (Kcb) and evapotranspiration (ETcb) values for multiple crop types in the Central Valley of California at spatial resolutions that are useful for irrigation management at the field level (30m). Integration of data from the NOAA NWS Forecasted Reference Evapotranspiration (FRET) system also allows forecasting of irrigation demand with lead times of up to one week, supporting both irrigation scheduling and water delivery planning. Information is distributed to agricultural producers and water managers via a web-based irrigation management decision support system, web services, and hand held devices. We also present comparisons of estimates of ETcb from the prototype system against estimates from other methods, including surface renewal stations, energy balance models, and water balance models driven with data from wireless sensor networks deployed in operational agricultural fields across California.

  20. Use of Continuous Monitors and Autosamplers to Predict Unmeasured Water-Quality Constituents in Tributaries of the Tualatin River, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, Chauncey W.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2010-01-01

    Management of water quality in streams of the United States is becoming increasingly complex as regulators seek to control aquatic pollution and ecological problems through Total Maximum Daily Load programs that target reductions in the concentrations of certain constituents. Sediment, nutrients, and bacteria, for example, are constituents that regulators target for reduction nationally and in the Tualatin River basin, Oregon. These constituents require laboratory analysis of discrete samples for definitive determinations of concentrations in streams. Recent technological advances in the nearly continuous, in situ monitoring of related water-quality parameters has fostered the use of these parameters as surrogates for the labor intensive, laboratory-analyzed constituents. Although these correlative techniques have been successful in large rivers, it was unclear whether they could be applied successfully in tributaries of the Tualatin River, primarily because these streams tend to be small, have rapid hydrologic response to rainfall and high streamflow variability, and may contain unique sources of sediment, nutrients, and bacteria. This report evaluates the feasibility of developing correlative regression models for predicting dependent variables (concentrations of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and Escherichia coli bacteria) in two Tualatin River basin streams: one draining highly urbanized land (Fanno Creek near Durham, Oregon) and one draining rural agricultural land (Dairy Creek at Highway 8 near Hillsboro, Oregon), during 2002-04. An important difference between these two streams is their response to storm runoff; Fanno Creek has a relatively rapid response due to extensive upstream impervious areas and Dairy Creek has a relatively slow response because of the large amount of undeveloped upstream land. Four other stream sites also were evaluated, but in less detail. Potential explanatory variables included continuously monitored streamflow

  1. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  2. Monitoring Process Water Quality Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy and Partial Least Squares Regression with Prediction Uncertainty Estimation.

    PubMed

    Skou, Peter B; Berg, Thilo A; Aunsbjerg, Stina D; Thaysen, Dorrit; Rasmussen, Morten A; van den Berg, Frans

    2017-03-01

    Reuse of process water in dairy ingredient production-and food processing in general-opens the possibility for sustainable water regimes. Membrane filtration processes are an attractive source of process water recovery since the technology is already utilized in the dairy industry and its use is expected to grow considerably. At Arla Foods Ingredients (AFI), permeate from a reverse osmosis polisher filtration unit is sought to be reused as process water, replacing the intake of potable water. However, as for all dairy and food producers, the process water quality must be monitored continuously to ensure food safety. In the present investigation we found urea to be the main organic compound, which potentially could represent a microbiological risk. Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in combination with multivariate modeling has a long-standing reputation as a real-time measurement technology in quality assurance. Urea was quantified Using NIRS and partial least squares regression (PLS) in the concentration range 50-200 ppm (RMSEP = 12 ppm, R(2 )= 0.88) in laboratory settings with potential for on-line application. A drawback of using NIRS together with PLS is that uncertainty estimates are seldom reported but essential to establishing real-time risk assessment. In a multivariate regression setting, sample-specific prediction errors are needed, which complicates the uncertainty estimation. We give a straightforward strategy for implementing an already developed, but seldom used, method for estimating sample-specific prediction uncertainty. We also suggest an improvement. Comparing independent reference analyses with the sample-specific prediction error estimates showed that the method worked on industrial samples when the model was appropriate and unbiased, and was simple to implement.

  3. Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus--a dengue threat for southern Australia?

    PubMed

    Russell, Richard C; Williams, Craig R; Sutherst, Robert W; Ritchie, Scott A

    2005-01-01

    Aedes albopictus, the so-called 'Asian tiger mosquito,' which has invaded areas of the Pacific, the Americas, Africa and Europe, and been intercepted in various Australian seaports in recent years, has now become established on a number of Torres Strait islands in northern Queensland and threatens to invade mainland Australia. As well as being a significant pest with day-biting tendencies, Ae. albopictus is a vector of dengue viruses and is capable of transmitting a number of other arboviruses. The species colonises domestic and peri-domestic containers, and can establish in temperate areas with cold winters. According to predictions made using the CSIRO climate matching software CLIMEX, Ae. albopictus could become established elsewhere in Australia, including southern Australia, and lead to these areas becoming receptive to dengue infections-a condition that currently does not exist because the vector Aedes aegypti is confined to Queensland and no species in southern Australia is known to be capable of transmitting dengue.

  4. Is Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Shanmugakumar, Sharanyaa; Playford, Denese; Burkitt, Tessa; Tennant, Marc; Bowles, Tom

    2016-03-31

    Objective Despite public interest in the rural workforce, there are few published data on the geographical distribution of Australia's rural surgeons, their practice skill set, career stage or work-life balance (on-call burden). Similarly, there has not been a peer-reviewed skills audit of rural training opportunities for surgical trainees. The present study undertook this baseline assessment for Western Australia (WA), which has some of the most remote practice areas in Australia.Methods Hospital staff from all WA Country Health Service hospitals with surgical service (20 of 89 rural health services) were contacted by telephone. A total of 18 of 20 provided complete data. The study questionnaire explored hospital and practice locations of practicing rural surgeons, on-call rosters, career stage, practice skill set and the availability of surgical training positions. Data were tabulated in excel and geographic information system geocoded. Descriptive statistics were calculated in Excel.Results Of the seven health regions for rural Western Australia, two (28.6%) were served by resident surgeons at a ratio consistent with Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS) guidelines. General surgery was offered in 16 (89%) hospitals. In total, 16 (89%) hospitals were served by fly-in, fly-out (FIFO) surgical services. Two hospitals with resident surgeons did not use FIFO services, but all hospitals without resident surgeons were served by FIFO surgical specialists. The majority of resident surgeons (62.5%) and FIFO surgeons (43.2%) were perceived to be mid-career by hospital staff members. Three hospitals (16.7%) offered all eight of the identified surgical skill sets, but 16 (89%) offered general surgery.Conclusions Relatively few resident rural surgeons are servicing large areas of WA, assisted by the widespread provision of FIFO surgical services. The present audit demonstrates strength in general surgical skills throughout regional WA, and augers well for the training

  5. Australia and Gondwanaland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Teichert, C.

    1959-01-01

    Along the western margin of the Australian continent there exist four major sedimentary basins, filled with predominantly marine rocks from Cambrian to Tertiary in age, and up to 40,000 feet thick. Seaward these basins continue into depressions recognizable in the continental shelf and even the continental slope. Their very presence, the nature of their sediments and the composition and relationships of their fossil faunas indicate the existence of an open ocean to the west of Australia since early Paleozoic time. Composition of the Australian fossil land vertebrate faunas suggests isolation of the Australian continent since at least Permian time. ?? 1959 Ferdinand Enke Verlag Stuttgart.

  6. Optimization of Early Response Monitoring and Prediction of Cancer Antiangiogenesis Therapy via Noninvasive PET Molecular Imaging Strategies of Multifactorial Bioparameters.

    PubMed

    Bao, Xiao; Wang, Ming-Wei; Luo, Jian-Min; Wang, Si-Yang; Zhang, Yong-Ping; Zhang, Ying-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Antiangiogenesis therapy (AAT) has provided substantial benefits regarding improved outcomes and survival for suitable patients in clinical settings. Therefore, the early definition of therapeutic effects is urgently needed to guide cancer AAT. We aimed to optimize the early response monitoring and prediction of AAT efficacy, as indicated by the multi-targeted anti-angiogenic drug sunitinib in U87MG tumors, using noninvasive positron emission computed tomography (PET) molecular imaging strategies of multifactorial bioparameters. Methods: U87MG tumor mice were treated via intragastric injections of sunitinib (80 mg/kg) or vehicle for 7 consecutive days. Longitudinal MicroPET/CT scans with (18)F-FDG, (18)F-FMISO, (18)F-ML-10 and (18)F-Alfatide II were acquired to quantitatively measure metabolism, hypoxia, apoptosis and angiogenesis on days 0, 1, 3, 7 and 13 following therapy initiation. Tumor tissues from a dedicated group of mice were collected for immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of key biomarkers (Glut-1, CA-IX, TUNEL, ανβ3 and CD31) at the time points of PET imaging. The tumor sizes and mouse weights were measured throughout the study. The tumor uptake (ID%/gmax), the ratios of the tumor/muscle (T/M) for each probe, and the tumor growth ratios (TGR) were calculated and used for statistical analyses of the differences and correlations. Results: Sunitinib successfully inhibited U87MG tumor growth with significant differences in the tumor size from day 9 after sunitinib treatment compared with the control group (P < 0.01). The uptakes of (18)F-FMISO (reduced hypoxia), (18)F-ML-10 (increased apoptosis) and (18)F-Alfatide II (decreased angiogenesis) in the tumor lesions significantly changed during the early stage (days 1 to 3) of sunitinib treatment; however, the uptake of (18)F-FDG (increased glucose metabolism) was significantly different during the late stage. The PET imaging data of each probe were all confirmed via ex vivo IHC of the relevant

  7. Optimization of Early Response Monitoring and Prediction of Cancer Antiangiogenesis Therapy via Noninvasive PET Molecular Imaging Strategies of Multifactorial Bioparameters

    PubMed Central

    Bao, Xiao; Wang, Ming-Wei; Luo, Jian-Min; Wang, Si-Yang; Zhang, Yong-Ping; Zhang, Ying-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Antiangiogenesis therapy (AAT) has provided substantial benefits regarding improved outcomes and survival for suitable patients in clinical settings. Therefore, the early definition of therapeutic effects is urgently needed to guide cancer AAT. We aimed to optimize the early response monitoring and prediction of AAT efficacy, as indicated by the multi-targeted anti-angiogenic drug sunitinib in U87MG tumors, using noninvasive positron emission computed tomography (PET) molecular imaging strategies of multifactorial bioparameters. Methods: U87MG tumor mice were treated via intragastric injections of sunitinib (80 mg/kg) or vehicle for 7 consecutive days. Longitudinal MicroPET/CT scans with 18F-FDG, 18F-FMISO, 18F-ML-10 and 18F-Alfatide II were acquired to quantitatively measure metabolism, hypoxia, apoptosis and angiogenesis on days 0, 1, 3, 7 and 13 following therapy initiation. Tumor tissues from a dedicated group of mice were collected for immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of key biomarkers (Glut-1, CA-IX, TUNEL, ανβ3 and CD31) at the time points of PET imaging. The tumor sizes and mouse weights were measured throughout the study. The tumor uptake (ID%/gmax), the ratios of the tumor/muscle (T/M) for each probe, and the tumor growth ratios (TGR) were calculated and used for statistical analyses of the differences and correlations. Results: Sunitinib successfully inhibited U87MG tumor growth with significant differences in the tumor size from day 9 after sunitinib treatment compared with the control group (P < 0.01). The uptakes of 18F-FMISO (reduced hypoxia), 18F-ML-10 (increased apoptosis) and 18F-Alfatide II (decreased angiogenesis) in the tumor lesions significantly changed during the early stage (days 1 to 3) of sunitinib treatment; however, the uptake of 18F-FDG (increased glucose metabolism) was significantly different during the late stage. The PET imaging data of each probe were all confirmed via ex vivo IHC of the relevant biomarkers

  8. Methods Developed by the Tools for Engine Diagnostics Task to Monitor and Predict Rotor Damage in Real Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baaklini, George Y.; Smith, Kevin; Raulerson, David; Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.; Sawicki, Jerzy T.; Brasche, Lisa

    2003-01-01

    Tools for Engine Diagnostics is a major task in the Propulsion System Health Management area of the Single Aircraft Accident Prevention project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program. The major goal of the Aviation Safety Program is to reduce fatal aircraft accidents by 80 percent within 10 years and by 90 percent within 25 years. The goal of the Propulsion System Health Management area is to eliminate propulsion system malfunctions as a primary or contributing factor to the cause of aircraft accidents. The purpose of Tools for Engine Diagnostics, a 2-yr-old task, is to establish and improve tools for engine diagnostics and prognostics that measure the deformation and damage of rotating engine components at the ground level and that perform intermittent or continuous monitoring on the engine wing. In this work, nondestructive-evaluation- (NDE-) based technology is combined with model-dependent disk spin experimental simulation systems, like finite element modeling (FEM) and modal norms, to monitor and predict rotor damage in real time. Fracture mechanics time-dependent fatigue crack growth and damage-mechanics-based life estimation are being developed, and their potential use investigated. In addition, wireless eddy current and advanced acoustics are being developed for on-wing and just-in-time NDE engine inspection to provide deeper access and higher sensitivity to extend on-wing capabilities and improve inspection readiness. In the long run, these methods could establish a base for prognostic sensing while an engine is running, without any overt actions, like inspections. This damage-detection strategy includes experimentally acquired vibration-, eddy-current- and capacitance-based displacement measurements and analytically computed FEM-, modal norms-, and conventional rotordynamics-based models of well-defined damages and critical mass imbalances in rotating disks and rotors.

  9. Monitoring MRD with flow cytometry: an effective method to predict relapse for ALL patients after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiao-Su; Liu, Yan-Rong; Zhu, Hong-Hu; Xu, Lan-Ping; Liu, Dai-Hong; Liu, Kai-Yan; Huang, Xiao-Jun

    2012-02-01

    This study evaluated the prognostic value of minimal residual disease (MRD) monitoring by four-color flow cytometry (FCM) in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). MRD was examined with four-color FCM at different time points in 139 patients (including pediatric and adult patients) with ALL after allo-HSCT. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RQ-PCR) was applied to evaluate the MRD of Philadelphia chromosome-positive ALL (Ph+ ALL) patients. Patients who were FCM-positive (FCM+) after transplantation had a lower event-free survival (EFS) of 0.54 and a higher cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) of 0.54 compared to an EFS of 0.80 and a CIR of 0.08 in FCM-negative (FCM-) patients (EFS, p < 0.001; CIR, p < 0.001). Similar results were obtained in high-risk patients and Ph+ ALL patients. Moreover, a FCM+ status after the second month post-HSCT (defined as MRD positive) proved to be a predictor of leukemia relapse. Multivariate analysis for EFS, OS and CIR showed that MRD status after transplantation was an independent prognostic factor (p < 0.001, p = 0.013, and p < 0.001, respectively). A good correlation was found between the MRD results of FCM and RQ-PCR (n = 126 pairs, Spearman r = 0.8139, p < 0.001). MRD monitoring by four-color FCM post-transplantation is an important tool for relapse prediction in ALL patients. Prompt and appropriate pre-emptive anti-leukemia treatment could be considered based on the status of MRD after HSCT.

  10. Neurodegeneration severity can be predicted from early microglia alterations monitored in vivo in a mouse model of chronic glaucoma

    PubMed Central

    Bosco, Alejandra; Romero, Cesar O.; Breen, Kevin T.; Chagovetz, Alexis A.; Steele, Michael R.; Ambati, Balamurali K.; Vetter, Monica L.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Microglia serve key homeostatic roles, and respond to neuronal perturbation and decline with a high spatiotemporal resolution. The course of all chronic CNS pathologies is thus paralleled by local microgliosis and microglia activation, which begin at early stages of the disease. However, the possibility of using live monitoring of microglia during early disease progression to predict the severity of neurodegeneration has not been explored. Because the retina allows live tracking of fluorescent microglia in their intact niche, here we investigated their early changes in relation to later optic nerve neurodegeneration. To achieve this, we used the DBA/2J mouse model of inherited glaucoma, which develops progressive retinal ganglion cell degeneration of variable severity during aging, and represents a useful model to study pathogenic mechanisms of retinal ganglion cell decline that are similar to those in human glaucoma. We imaged CX3CR1+/GFP microglial cells in vivo at ages ranging from 1 to 5 months by confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (cSLO) and quantified cell density and morphological activation. We detected early microgliosis at the optic nerve head (ONH), where axonopathy first manifests, and could track attenuation of this microgliosis induced by minocycline. We also observed heterogeneous and dynamic patterns of early microglia activation in the retina. When the same animals were aged and analyzed for the severity of optic nerve pathology at 10 months of age, we found a strong correlation with the levels of ONH microgliosis at 3 to 4 months. Our findings indicate that live imaging and monitoring the time course and levels of early retinal microgliosis and microglia activation in glaucoma could serve as indicators of future neurodegeneration severity. PMID:25755083

  11. Planning Australia’s Defense Forces

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-03-01

    Alexander, Australia Since Federation (Melbourne: Thomas Nelson (Australia) Ltd., 1976), p. 208-210. 5. Charles Wilson, Australia 1788-1988: The Creation...p. 2. 9. Hughes, p. 48. 10. Charles Wilson, Australia 1788-1988: The Creation of a Nation (Totowa, NJ: Barnes & Noble, 1988), p. 9. 11. Hughes, p. 52...Australia’s Defence Forces," Army Quarterly and Defence Journal," October 1986, p. 462. 15. Babbage , "Australia: Defence Palnning Patchy and Rudderless," 251

  12. Australia: The Dictation Test Redux?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNamara, Tim

    2009-01-01

    In its late colonial history and early years as an independent nation, Australia practised a policy of ruthless exclusion of immigrants on the basis of race by means of a language test: the notorious Dictation Test. In the 50 years following World War II, Australia adopted policies encouraging immigration with bipartisan political support.…

  13. Australia's marine virtual laboratory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Proctor, Roger; Gillibrand, Philip; Oke, Peter; Rosebrock, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In all modelling studies of realistic scenarios, a researcher has to go through a number of steps to set up a model in order to produce a model simulation of value. The steps are generally the same, independent of the modelling system chosen. These steps include determining the time and space scales and processes of the required simulation; obtaining data for the initial set up and for input during the simulation time; obtaining observation data for validation or data assimilation; implementing scripts to run the simulation(s); and running utilities or custom-built software to extract results. These steps are time consuming and resource hungry, and have to be done every time irrespective of the simulation - the more complex the processes, the more effort is required to set up the simulation. The Australian Marine Virtual Laboratory (MARVL) is a new development in modelling frameworks for researchers in Australia. MARVL uses the TRIKE framework, a java-based control system developed by CSIRO that allows a non-specialist user configure and run a model, to automate many of the modelling preparation steps needed to bring the researcher faster to the stage of simulation and analysis. The tool is seen as enhancing the efficiency of researchers and marine managers, and is being considered as an educational aid in teaching. In MARVL we are developing a web-based open source application which provides a number of model choices and provides search and recovery of relevant observations, allowing researchers to: a) efficiently configure a range of different community ocean and wave models for any region, for any historical time period, with model specifications of their choice, through a user-friendly web application, b) access data sets to force a model and nest a model into, c) discover and assemble ocean observations from the Australian Ocean Data Network (AODN, http://portal.aodn.org.au/webportal/) in a format that is suitable for model evaluation or data assimilation, and

  14. Predictive Tools for Evaluating Aeolian Sediment Redistribution After Experimental Floods: Monitoring Studies in the Colorado River Corridor, Grand Canyon, Arizona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Draut, A. E.; Rubin, D. M.; Fairley, H. C.; Melis, T. S.

    2004-12-01

    The Colorado River through Grand Canyon is subject to complex river management protocols and multi-faceted geomorphic research through the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. Predicting aeolian redistribution of sediment following experimental floods is important for assessing the potential of controlled flooding to help preserve archaeological sites by replenishing sediment deposits above the flood-stage elevation. We present initial results of an ongoing instrumentation program supported by the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center in which aeolian sediment transport rates, wind magnitude and direction, and precipitation are measured at multiple locations along the river corridor. These data allow resolution of seasonal and regional variability in wind intensity and direction, and resultant aeolian sediment transport, as well as precipitation patterns. Data collected since Fall 2003 indicate that wind velocities and sand transport were greatest during April and May 2004 at all locations studied (with winds locally >25 m/s, and transport rates locally >9 kg/m/day). Dominant wind direction during strong wind intervals varies with location, but during the April-May windy season the greatest transport potential was directed upstream in Marble Canyon (upper Grand Canyon). Such information can be used to evaluate the potential for aeolian reworking of new fluvial sand deposits, and restoration of higher-elevation aeolian deposits, following experimental beach/habitat building flows. These aeolian deposits, many of which contain and preserve archaeological material, comprise a critical part of the Grand Canyon ecosystem.

  15. Proton MR Spectroscopy and Diffusion MR Imaging Monitoring to Predict Tumor Response to Interstitial Photodynamic Therapy for Glioblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Toussaint, Magali; Pinel, Sophie; Auger, Florent; Durieux, Nicolas; Thomassin, Magalie; Thomas, Eloise; Moussaron, Albert; Meng, Dominique; Plénat, François; Amouroux, Marine; Bastogne, Thierry; Frochot, Céline; Tillement, Olivier; Lux, François; Barberi-Heyob, Muriel

    2017-01-01

    Despite recent progress in conventional therapeutic approaches, the vast majority of glioblastoma recur locally, indicating that a more aggressive local therapy is required. Interstitial photodynamic therapy (iPDT) appears as a very promising and complementary approach to conventional therapies. However, an optimal fractionation scheme for iPDT remains the indispensable requirement. To achieve that major goal, we suggested following iPDT tumor response by a non-invasive imaging monitoring. Nude rats bearing intracranial glioblastoma U87MG xenografts were treated by iPDT, just after intravenous injection of AGuIX® nanoparticles, encapsulating PDT and imaging agents. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) allowed us an original longitudinal follow-up of post-treatment effects to discriminate early predictive markers. We successfully used conventional MRI, T2 star (T2*), Diffusion Weighted Imaging (DWI) and MRS to extract relevant profiles on tissue cytoarchitectural alterations, local vascular disruption and metabolic information on brain tumor biology, achieving earlier assessment of tumor response. From one day post-iPDT, DWI and MRS allowed us to identify promising markers such as the Apparent Diffusion Coefficient (ADC) values, lipids, choline and myoInositol levels that led us to distinguish iPDT responders from non-responders. All these responses give us warning signs well before the tumor escapes and that the growth would be appreciated. PMID:28255341

  16. Using the MAVEN EUV Monitor to Validate Far-Side and Over-The-Limb Solar Activity Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eparvier, F. G.; Thiemann, E.; Chamberlin, P. C.; Woods, T. N.

    2015-12-01

    The Extreme Ultraviolet Monitor (EUVM) on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission measures the solar irradiance from the vantage point of Mars in three broad wavelength bands (0-7 nm, 17-22 nm, and 121-122 nm) at a cadence of 1-sec. Normal operations at Mars began in mid-November, 2014 and continue to the present. In November, 2014 the sub-Mars point on the Sun was approximately on the east limb of the solar disk as seen from Earth. Through the mission so far, the MAVEN EUVM has been measuring the EUV irradiance from a solar disk that has been decreasingly less observable from Earth. In June 2015, Mars and MAVEN were in conjunction from Earth, observing irradiance from a solar disk completely unviewable from Earth. The EUVM observations during this period show variability from active regions rotating and from flares. At many other times through the MAVEN mission, the EUVM has observed flares not visible from Earth. The MAVEN solar observations provide a unique opportunity to study the solar variability from multiple vantage points at both daily and sub-daily time scales. MAVEN EUVM observations of far side solar activity will be compared with predictions based on interpolation from Earth and from various far side imaging techniques such as helioseismic and H Ly-alpha backscatter imaging.

  17. Lithium-ion battery state of health monitoring and remaining useful life prediction based on support vector regression-particle filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Hancheng; Jin, Xiaoning; Lou, Yangbing; Wang, Changhong

    2014-12-01

    Lithium-ion batteries are used as the main power source in many electronic and electrical devices. In particular, with the growth in battery-powered electric vehicle development, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle systems. In order to provide timely maintenance and replacement of battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable and accurate battery health diagnostic that takes a prognostic approach. Therefore, this paper focuses on two main methods to determine a battery's health: (1) Battery State-of-Health (SOH) monitoring and (2) Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Both of these are calculated by using a filter algorithm known as the Support Vector Regression-Particle Filter (SVR-PF). Models for battery SOH monitoring based on SVR-PF are developed with novel capacity degradation parameters introduced to determine battery health in real time. Moreover, the RUL prediction model is proposed, which is able to provide the RUL value and update the RUL probability distribution to the End-of-Life cycle. Results for both methods are presented, showing that the proposed SOH monitoring and RUL prediction methods have good performance and that the SVR-PF has better monitoring and prediction capability than the standard particle filter (PF).

  18. AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO ADDRESSING NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE AIR QUALITY CONCERNS: THE INTEGRATION OF GIS, URBAN MORPHOLOGY, PREDICTIVE METEOROLOGY, AND AIR QUALITY MONITORING TOOLS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes a project that combines the capabilities of urban geography, raster-based GIS, predictive meteorological and air pollutant diffusion modeling, to support a neighborhood-scale air quality monitoring pilot study under the U.S. EPA EMPACT Program. The study ha...

  19. Development of a decision support system for crop disease monitoring, surveillance and prediction in Bomet county, Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otieno, O. M.

    2015-12-01

    The study proposes to use Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing techniques to spatially model Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) disease in maize growing areas in Kenya. Results from this work will be used for prediction, monitoring and to guide intervention on MLN. This will minimize maize yield losses resulting from MLN infestation and thus safeguard the livelihoods of maize farmers in Kenya. MLN was first reported in Kenya in September 2011 in Bomet county. It then subsequently spread to other parts in Kenya. Maize crops are susceptible to MLN at all growth stages. Once infected the only option left for the farmers is to burn their maize plantations. Infection rate and damage is very high affecting yields and sometimes causing complete loss of maize yield.The modelling exercise will cover the period prior to and after the incidence of MLN. Specifically, the analysis will integrate spatio-temporal information on maize phenology and field surveys with the intention of delineating the extent of MLN infestation and the degree of damage as a result of MLN. Additionally, the task will identify potential predisposing factors leading to MLN resurgence and spread and to predict potential areas where MLN is likely to spread and to estimate the potential impact of MLN on the farm holders. The area of study for this task will be Bomet County. Historical and current environmental and spatial indicators including temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation health and crop cover will be fed into a model in order to determine the main factors that aide the occurrence and the spread of MLN. Multi-spectral image processing will be used to produce indices to study maize crop health whilst image classification techniques will be used to identify crop cover clusters by differentiating the variations in spectral signatures in the area of study and hence distinguish infected, unaffected maize crops and other crop cover classes. Variables from these indicators will then be

  20. MISR Views Northern Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    MISR images of tropical northern Australia acquired on June 1, 2000 (Terra orbit 2413) during the long dry season. Left: color composite of vertical (nadir) camera blue, green, and red band data. Right: multi-angle composite of red band data only from the cameras viewing 60 degrees aft, 60 degrees forward, and nadir. Color and contrast have been enhanced to accentuate subtle details. In the left image, color variations indicate how different parts of the scene reflect light differently at blue, green, and red wavelengths; in the right image color variations show how these same scene elements reflect light differently at different angles of view. Water appears in blue shades in the right image, for example, because glitter makes the water look brighter at the aft camera's view angle. The prominent inland water body is Lake Argyle, the largest human-made lake in Australia, which supplies water for the Ord River Irrigation Area and the town of Kununurra (pop. 6500) just to the north. At the top is the southern edge of Joseph Bonaparte Gulf; the major inlet at the left is Cambridge Gulf, the location of the town of Wyndham (pop. 850), the port for this region. This area is sparsely populated, and is known for its remote, spectacular mountains and gorges. Visible along much of the coastline are intertidal mudflats of mangroves and low shrubs; to the south the terrain is covered by open woodland merging into open grassland in the lower half of the pictures.

    MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.

  1. Australia's Great Barrier Reef

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2001-01-01

    The Great Barrier Reef extends for 2,000 kilometers along the northeastern coast of Australia. It is not a single reef, but a vast maze of reefs, passages, and coral cays (islands that are part of the reef). This nadir true-color image was acquired by the MISR instrument on August 26, 2000 (Terra orbit 3679), and shows part of the southern portion of the reef adjacent to the central Queensland coast. The width of the MISR swath is approximately 380 kilometers, with the reef clearly visible up to approximately 200 kilometers from the coast. It may be difficult to see the myriad details in the browse image, but if you retrieve the higher resolution version, a zoomed display reveals the spectacular structure of the many reefs.

    The more northerly coastal area in this image shows the vast extent of sugar cane cultivation, this being the largest sugar producing area in Australia, centered on the city of Mackay. Other industries in the area include coal, cattle, dairying, timber, grain, seafood, and fruit. The large island off the most northerly part of the coast visible in this image is Whitsunday Island, with smaller islands and reefs extending southeast, parallel to the coast. These include some of the better known resort islands such as Hayman, Lindeman, Hamilton, and Brampton Islands.

    Further south, just inland of the small semicircular bay near the right of the image, is Rockhampton, the largest city along the central Queensland coast, and the regional center for much of central Queensland. Rockhampton is just north of the Tropic of Capricorn. Its hinterland is a rich pastoral, agricultural, and mining region.

    MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.

  2. Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Sheppard, Lianne; Sampson, Paul D.; Larson, Timothy V.; Keller, Joshua P.; Kaufman, Joel D.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. Objectives: We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. Methods: We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children’s Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). Results: In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R2 = 0.84–0.91) with lower R2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R2 = 0.00–0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. Conclusions: Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods ≤ 30 years. Citation: Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L, Sampson PD

  3. Integrating real-time and manual monitored data to predict hillslope soil moisture dynamics with high spatio-temporal resolution using linear and non-linear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Qing; Zhou, Zhiwen; Duncan, Emily W.; Lv, Ligang; Liao, Kaihua; Feng, Huihui

    2017-02-01

    Spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture (θ) is a challenge that remains to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time θ monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of θ dynamics. In this study, we integrated the manual and real-time monitored data to depict the hillslope θ dynamics with good spatial coverage and temporal resolution. Linear (stepwise multiple linear regression-SMLR) and non-linear (support vector machines-SVM) models were used to predict θ at 39 manual sites (collected 1-2 times per month) with θ collected at three real-time monitoring sites (collected every 5 mins). By comparing the accuracies of SMLR and SVM for each depth and manual site, an optimal prediction model was then determined at this depth of this site. Results showed that θ at the 39 manual sites can be reliably predicted (root mean square errors <0.028 m3 m-3) using both SMLR and SVM. The linear or non-linear relationship between θ at each manual site and at the three real-time monitoring sites was the main reason for choosing SMLR or SVM as the optimal prediction model. The subsurface flow dynamics was an important factor that determined whether the relationship was linear or non-linear. Depth to bedrock, elevation, topographic wetness index, profile curvature, and θ temporal stability influenced the selection of prediction model since they were related to the subsurface soil water distribution and movement. Using this approach, hillslope θ spatial distributions at un-sampled times and dates can be predicted. Missing information of hillslope θ dynamics can be acquired successfully.

  4. Algae Reefs in Shark Bay, Western Australia, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Numerous algae reefs are seen in Shark Bay, Western Australia, Australia (26.0S, 113.5E) especially in the southern portions of the bay. The south end is more saline because tidal flow in and out of the bay is restricted by sediment deposited at the north and central end of the bay opposite the mouth of the Wooramel River. This extremely arid region produces little sediment runoff so that the waters are very clear, saline and rich in algae.

  5. Adolescent suicide in Australia: rates, risk and resilience.

    PubMed

    McNamara, Patricia M

    2013-07-01

    Adolescent suicide rates in Australia have fallen significantly during recent years. The incidence, however, clearly remains a serious concern for young people, parents, professionals and policy makers. Some groups of Australian youth appear to be at heightened risk. Adolescents within the welfare system, indigenous, rural and refugee youth, along with same sex attracted young people often need very careful monitoring and support. Young men continue to take their lives more frequently than young women. Prevention programmes in Australia aim to develop resilience in young people, families and communities that can serve as protection against self harm and suicide. The improvement of mental health literacy, a fostering of adolescent self-efficacy and better access to early intervention strategies are currently privileged in national and state policies related to young people in Australia. More work is needed, however, to achieve a well integrated mental health framework capable of effectively addressing adolescent suicide prevention into the twenty-first century.

  6. A feasibility study of a predictive emissions monitoring system applied to taipower's nanpu and hsinta power plants.

    PubMed

    Chien, Tsung-Wen; Hsueh, Hsin-Ta; Chu, Hsin; Hsu, Wei-Chieh; Tu, Yueh-Yuan; Tsai, Hsien-Shiou; Chen, Kuo-Yi

    2010-08-01

    The Hsinta and Nanpu Power Stations are located in southern Taiwan. The Hsinta Power Station consists of five combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT), whereas the Nanpu Power Station consists of four. A project was undertaken to develop and deploy a predictive emissions monitoring system (PEMS) on CCGT unit 3 of Hsinta Power Station (HT-3) and CCGT unit 1 of Nanpu Power Station (NP-1) with the long-term goal of developing a universal model for this kind of power plant. After the first-year PEMS project at the Hsinta power plant, one goal of the second-year PEMS project was to set up a second PEMS at the Nanpu power plant and compare the PEM models applied the to two gas-fired combined cycle power generation units. Consequently, the second and third PEMS of Taiwan at CCGT HT-3 and NP-1 were finished. After comparing the differences among HT-1, HT-3, and NP-1 PEMS models, the pattern of model functionality indicated that this model could be applied to the other units of the same type and size. However, the PEMS function constant or parameter coefficients must be modified on a case-by-case basis. With regard to the PEMS model developed for HT-3, the relative accuracy (RA) of the 15-variable model with start-up mode is only 7.43% and met the criteria of draft PS-16. With regard to the PEMS model developed for NP-1, the RA of the 10-variable model with start-up mode was only 7.76% and also met the criteria of draft PS-16.

  7. Adult Learners' Week in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cross, John

    2002-01-01

    Promotional materials and activities for Australia's Adult Learners Week, which are shaped by a variety of stakeholders , include media strategies and a website. Activities are evaluated using a market research company and website and telephone hotline statistics. (SK)

  8. Australia's Next Top Fraction Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gould, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Peter Gould suggests Australia's next top fraction model should be a linear model rather than an area model. He provides a convincing argument and gives examples of ways to introduce a linear model in primary classrooms.

  9. Atmospheric transport modelling of time resolved 133Xe emissions from the isotope production facility ANSTO, Australia.

    PubMed

    Schöppner, M; Plastino, W; Hermanspahn, N; Hoffmann, E; Kalinowski, M; Orr, B; Tinker, R

    2013-12-01

    The verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) relies amongst other things on the continuous and worldwide monitoring of radioxenon. The characterization of the existing and legitimate background, which is produced mainly by nuclear power plants and isotope production facilities, is of high interest to improve the capabilities of the monitoring network. However, the emissions from legitimate sources can usually only be estimated. For this paper historic source terms of (133)Xe emissions from the isotope production facility at ANSTO, Sydney, Australia, have been made available in a daily resolution. Based on these high resolution data, different source term sets with weekly, monthly and yearly time resolution have been compiled. These different sets are then applied together with atmospheric transport modelling (ATM) to predict the concentration time series at two radioxenon monitoring stations. The results are compared with each other in order to examine the improvement of the prediction capability depending on the used time resolution of the most dominant source term in the region.

  10. Neutron scattering in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Knott, R.B.

    1994-12-31

    Neutron scattering techniques have been part of the Australian scientific research community for the past three decades. The High Flux Australian Reactor (HIFAR) is a multi-use facility of modest performance that provides the only neutron source in the country suitable for neutron scattering. The limitations of HIFAR have been recognized and recently a Government initiated inquiry sought to evaluate the future needs of a neutron source. In essence, the inquiry suggested that a delay of several years would enable a number of key issues to be resolved, and therefore a more appropriate decision made. In the meantime, use of the present source is being optimized, and where necessary research is being undertaken at major overseas neutron facilities either on a formal or informal basis. Australia has, at present, a formal agreement with the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (UK) for access to the spallation source ISIS. Various aspects of neutron scattering have been implemented on HIFAR, including investigations of the structure of biological relevant molecules. One aspect of these investigations will be presented. Preliminary results from a study of the interaction of the immunosuppressant drug, cyclosporin-A, with reconstituted membranes suggest that the hydrophobic drug interdigitated with lipid chains.

  11. Indigenous actinorhizal plants of Australia.

    PubMed

    Ganguli, Nishath K; Kennedy, Ivan R

    2013-11-01

    Indigenous species of actinorhizal plants of Casuarinaceae, Elaeagnaceae and Rhamnaceae are found in specific regions of Australia. Most of these plants belong to Casuarinaceae, the dominant actinorhizal family in Australia. Many of them have significant environmental and economical value. The other two families with their indigenous actinorhizal plants have only a minor presence in Australia. Most Australian actinorhizal plants have their native range only in Australia, whereas two of these plants are also found indigenously elsewhere. The nitrogen-fixing ability of these plants varies between species. This ability needs to be investigated in some of these plants. Casuarinas form a distinctive but declining part of the Australian landscape. Their potential has rarely been applied in forestry in Australia despite their well-known uses, which are being judiciously exploited elsewhere. To remedy this oversight, a programme has been proposed for increasing and improving casuarinas that would aid in greening more regions of Australia, increasing the soil fertility and the area of wild life habitat (including endangered species). Whether these improved clones would be productive with local strains of Frankia or they need an external inoculum of Frankia should be determined and the influence of mycorrhizal fungi on these clones also should be investigated.

  12. Cretaceous vertical motion of australia and the australian- antarctic discordance

    PubMed

    Gurnis; Muller; Moresi

    1998-03-06

    A three-dimensional model of mantle convection in which the known history of plate tectonics is imposed predicts the anomalous Cretaceous vertical motion of Australia and the present-day distinctive geochemistry and geophysics of the Australian-Antarctic Discordance. The dynamic models infer that a subducted slab associated with the long-lived Gondwanaland-Pacific converging margin passed beneath Australia during the Cretaceous, partially stagnated in the mantle transition zone, and is presently being drawn up by the Southeast Indian Ridge.

  13. Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.

    2016-04-01

    A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

  14. Novel approaches to effects-based monitoring: 21st century tools for bio-effects prediction and surveillance

    EPA Science Inventory

    Effects-based monitoring (EBM) has been employed as a complement to chemical monitoring to help address knowledge gaps between chemical occurrence and biological effects. We have piloted several pathway-based approaches to EBM, that utilize modern bioinformatic and high throughpu...

  15. Towards ecohydrological drought monitoring and prediction using a land data assimilation system: A case study on the Horn of Africa drought (2010-2011)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawada, Yohei; Koike, Toshio

    2016-07-01

    Despite the importance of the ecological and agricultural aspects of severe droughts, no drought monitoring and prediction framework based on a land data assimilation system (LDAS) has been developed to monitor and predict vegetation dynamics in the middle of droughts. In this study, we applied a LDAS that can simulate surface soil moisture, root-zone soil moisture, and vegetation dynamics to the Horn of Africa drought in 2010-2011 caused by the precipitation deficit in two consecutive rainy seasons. We successfully simulated the ecohydrological drought quantified by the model-estimated soil moistures and leaf area index (LAI). The root-zone soil moisture and LAI are good indicators of prolonged droughts because they reflect the long-term effects of past precipitation deficit. The precipitation deficit in 2010 significantly affected the land surface condition of the next rainy season in 2011, which indicated the importance of obtaining accurate initial soil moisture and LAI values for prediction of multiseasonal droughts. In addition, the general circulation model-based seasonal meteorological prediction showed good performance in predicting land surface conditions of the Horn of Africa drought.

  16. Chemometrics and in-line near infrared spectroscopic monitoring of a biopharmaceutical Chinese hamster ovary cell culture: prediction of multiple cultivation variables.

    PubMed

    Clavaud, Matthieu; Roggo, Yves; Von Daeniken, Ralph; Liebler, André; Schwabe, Jan-Oliver

    2013-07-15

    In the present study near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used to monitor the cultivation of mammalian Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells producing a monoclonal antibody in a fed-batch cell culture process. A temperature shift was applied during the cultivation. The cells were incubated at 37 °C and 33 °C. The Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) multiplex process analyzer spectroscopy was investigated to monitor cultivation variables of the CHO cell culture from 10 independent batches using two channels of the FT-NIR. The measurements were performed on production scale bioreactors of 12,500 L. The cell cultures were analyzed with the spectrometer coupled to a transflection sterilizable fiber optic probe inserted into the bioreactors. Multivariate data analysis (MVDA) employing unsupervised principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares regression methods (PLS) were applied. PCA demonstrated that 96% of the observed variability was explained by the process trajectory and the inter-batch variability. PCA was found to be a significant tool in identifying batch homogeneity between lots and in detecting abnormal fermentation runs. Seven different cell culture parameters such as osmolality, glucose concentration, product titer, packed cell volume (PCV), integrated viable packed cell volume (ivPCV), viable cell density (VCD), and integrated viable cell count (iVCC) were monitored inline and predicted by NIR. NIR spectra and reference analytics data were computed using control charts to evaluate the monitoring abilities. Control charts of each media component were under control by NIR spectroscopy. The PLS calibration plots offered accurate predictive capabilities for each media. This paper underlines the capability for inline prediction of multiple cultivation variables during bioprocess monitoring.

  17. The Radiometric Map of Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minty, Brian; Franklin, Ross; Milligan, Peter; Richardson, Murray; Wilford, John

    2009-12-01

    Geoscience Australia and the Australian State and Territory Geological Surveys have systematically surveyed most of the Australian continent over the past 40 years using airborne gamma-ray spectrometry to map potassium, uranium and thorium elemental concentrations at the Earth's surface. However, the individual surveys that comprise the national gamma-ray spectrometric radioelement database are not all registered to the same datum. This limits the usefulness of the database as it is not possible to easily combine surveys into regional compilations or make accurate comparisons between radiometric signatures in different survey areas. To solve these problems, Geoscience Australia has undertaken an Australia-Wide Airborne Geophysical Survey (AWAGS), funded under the Australian Government's Onshore Energy Security Program, to serve as a radioelement baseline for all current and future airborne gamma-ray spectrometric surveys in Australia. The AWAGS survey has been back-calibrated to the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) radioelement datum. We have used the AWAGS data to level the national radioelement database by estimating survey correction factors that, once applied, minimise both the differences in radioelement estimates between surveys (where these surveys overlap) and the differences between the surveys and the AWAGS traverses. The database is thus effectively levelled to the IAEA datum. The levelled database has been used to produce the first `Radiometric Map of Australia' - levelled and merged composite potassium (% K), uranium (ppm eU) and thorium (ppm eTh) grids over Australia at 100m resolution. Interpreters can use the map to reliably compare the radiometric signatures observed over different parts of Australia. This enables the assessment of key mineralogical and geochemical properties of bedrock and regolith materials from different geological provinces and regions with contrasting landscape histories.

  18. Modelling bloom formation of the toxic dinoflagellates Dinophysis acuminata and Dinophysis caudata in a highly modified estuary, south eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajani, Penelope; Larsson, Michaela E.; Rubio, Ana; Bush, Stephen; Brett, Steve; Farrell, Hazel

    2016-12-01

    Dinoflagellates belonging to the toxigenic genus Dinophysis are increasing in abundance in the Hawkesbury River, south-eastern Australia. This study investigates a twelve year time series of abundance and physico-chemical data to model these blooms. Four species were reported over the sampling campaign - Dinophysis acuminata, Dinophysis caudata, Dinophysis fortii and Dinophysis tripos-with D. acuminata and D. caudata being most abundant. Highest abundance of D. acuminata occurred in the austral spring (max. abundance 4500 cells l-1), whilst highest D. caudata occurred in the summer to autumn (max. 12,000 cells l-1). Generalised additive models revealed abundance of D. acuminata was significantly linked to season, thermal stratification and nutrients, whilst D. caudata was associated with nutrients, salinity and dissolved oxygen. The models' predictive capability was up to 60% for D. acuminata and 53% for D. caudata. Altering sampling strategies during blooms accompanied with in situ high resolution monitoring will further improve Dinophysis bloom prediction capability.

  19. Review of Australia's polio surveillance.

    PubMed

    Paterson, Beverley J; Durrheim, David N

    2013-06-30

    With eradication almost within reach, the importance of detecting every poliomyelitis case has taken on additional significance. The selected surveillance strategy must be effective and efficient. A review of polio surveillance in Australia was conducted to consider whether current strategies were optimal. Document review and semi-structured key informant interviews were used to conduct the review. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and thematically analysed. The review was an iterative process with feedback on the findings sought from interviewees. Since Western Pacific Regional polio-elimination status was certified, one imported adult case was detected in 2007 in Australia, with no evidence of further transmission, and no Australian paediatric cases identified. Respondents reported that: it was not possible to prevent importations; paediatric cases were more likely to be identified than adult cases; and there may be a low level of suspicion among clinicians. Case detection and outbreak mitigation were considered key reasons to undertake polio surveillance. While Australia has not achieved one of the key World Health Organization (WHO) surveillance targets, this did not compromise Australias polio-free status. Identified issues with polio surveillance were the potential for an importation with high attendant investigation and containment costs, low stool sample collection rates, and the opportunity to improve safeguards around the importation and laboratory storage of biological samples containing poliovirus. The review found strong support for ongoing polio surveillance, particularly to detect imported cases and to demonstrate commitment to maintaining a polio-free region. Existing polio surveillance strategies were considered appropriate for Australia.

  20. First ceratosaurian dinosaur from Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzgerald, Erich M. G.; Carrano, Matthew T.; Holland, Timothy; Wagstaff, Barbara E.; Pickering, David; Rich, Thomas H.; Vickers-Rich, Patricia

    2012-05-01

    The basal theropod dinosaur clade Ceratosauria, and its subclade Abelisauroidea, is characteristic of late Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate faunas in western Gondwana (South America, Africa, Madagascar, and India) and Europe. Yet unambiguous records of ceratosaurs have hitherto been absent from Australia, where the theropod assemblage appears to include several typically Laurasian clades. Here, we report the first evidence of ceratosaurs (and potentially abelisauroids) from eastern Gondwana--a diagnostic astragalocalcaneum from the Aptian (121-125 Ma) of Victoria, Australia. Ceratosauria thus occurred in both western and eastern Gondwana during the Early Cretaceous. This fossil adds to the poorly known dinosaur fauna of Australia, a major clade of basal theropods, emphasising that its mid-Cretaceous theropod diversity was surprisingly cosmopolitan despite relative geographic isolation, including clades that have been thought to be typical of both Gondwana and Laurasia--Ceratosauria, Spinosauridae, Carcharodontosauria, Tyrannosauroidea, and Deinonychosauria. Such a contemporaneous association of theropod clades is unknown from other Gondwanan continents and questions the views that the late Mesozoic dinosaur fauna of Australia was dominated by Gondwanan or Laurasian elements, extreme isolation, relictualism, and/or novelty as a `centre of origin'. The cosmopolitan theropod fauna of Australia probably reflects the global distribution of these clades early in their history, prior to significant continental breakup.

  1. First ceratosaurian dinosaur from Australia.

    PubMed

    Fitzgerald, Erich M G; Carrano, Matthew T; Holland, Timothy; Wagstaff, Barbara E; Pickering, David; Rich, Thomas H; Vickers-Rich, Patricia

    2012-05-01

    The basal theropod dinosaur clade Ceratosauria, and its subclade Abelisauroidea, is characteristic of late Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate faunas in western Gondwana (South America, Africa, Madagascar, and India) and Europe. Yet unambiguous records of ceratosaurs have hitherto been absent from Australia, where the theropod assemblage appears to include several typically Laurasian clades. Here, we report the first evidence of ceratosaurs (and potentially abelisauroids) from eastern Gondwana--a diagnostic astragalocalcaneum from the Aptian (121-125 Ma) of Victoria, Australia. Ceratosauria thus occurred in both western and eastern Gondwana during the Early Cretaceous. This fossil adds to the poorly known dinosaur fauna of Australia, a major clade of basal theropods, emphasising that its mid-Cretaceous theropod diversity was surprisingly cosmopolitan despite relative geographic isolation, including clades that have been thought to be typical of both Gondwana and Laurasia--Ceratosauria, Spinosauridae, Carcharodontosauria, Tyrannosauroidea, and Deinonychosauria. Such a contemporaneous association of theropod clades is unknown from other Gondwanan continents and questions the views that the late Mesozoic dinosaur fauna of Australia was dominated by Gondwanan or Laurasian elements, extreme isolation, relictualism, and/or novelty as a 'centre of origin'. The cosmopolitan theropod fauna of Australia probably reflects the global distribution of these clades early in their history, prior to significant continental breakup.

  2. Australia`s southeastern Bonaparte basin has plenty of potential

    SciTech Connect

    Miyazaki, S.

    1997-04-21

    Situated in the Timor Sea and Joseph Bonaparte Gulf regions, the Bonaparte basin is one of the Phanerozoic basins of what is now called the North West Shelf of Australia. This basin consists of a number of Paleozoic and Mesozoic synclines and horsts. Drilling success rate for this basin is one of the highest in Australia in the last 5 years. New opportunities are available in the southeastern Bonaparte basin, where seven vacant tracts have just been released for application for exploration permits. The paper discusses the regional geology, previous exploration activities, and potentials of the southern Petrel sub-basin and Darwin shelf.

  3. The statistical evaluation and comparison of ADMS-Urban model for the prediction of nitrogen dioxide with air quality monitoring network.

    PubMed

    Dėdelė, Audrius; Miškinytė, Auksė

    2015-09-01

    In many countries, road traffic is one of the main sources of air pollution associated with adverse effects on human health and environment. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is considered to be a measure of traffic-related air pollution, with concentrations tending to be higher near highways, along busy roads, and in the city centers, and the exceedances are mainly observed at measurement stations located close to traffic. In order to assess the air quality in the city and the air pollution impact on public health, air quality models are used. However, firstly, before the model can be used for these purposes, it is important to evaluate the accuracy of the dispersion modelling as one of the most widely used method. The monitoring and dispersion modelling are two components of air quality monitoring system (AQMS), in which statistical comparison was made in this research. The evaluation of the Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System (ADMS-Urban) was made by comparing monthly modelled NO2 concentrations with the data of continuous air quality monitoring stations in Kaunas city. The statistical measures of model performance were calculated for annual and monthly concentrations of NO2 for each monitoring station site. The spatial analysis was made using geographic information systems (GIS). The calculation of statistical parameters indicated a good ADMS-Urban model performance for the prediction of NO2. The results of this study showed that the agreement of modelled values and observations was better for traffic monitoring stations compared to the background and residential stations.

  4. POPs monitoring in Australia and New Zealand using plastic resin pellets, and International Pellet Watch as a tool for education and raising public awareness on plastic debris and POPs.

    PubMed

    Yeo, Bee Geok; Takada, Hideshige; Taylor, Heidi; Ito, Maki; Hosoda, Junki; Allinson, Mayumi; Connell, Sharnie; Greaves, Laura; McGrath, John

    2015-12-15

    Persistent organic pollutants (i.e. PCBs, DDTs, and HCHs) were analyzed along Australia and New Zealand North Island coastlines. PCB concentrations were high in urban areas (107-294 ng/g-pellet), with Sydney Harbour the most polluted. Hepta-chlorinated PCB was abundant, with ~30% in urban areas suggesting legacy pollution. DDT concentrations showed similar pattern except in rural agricultural sites, Taupo Bay and Ahipara, New Zealand (23 and 47 ng/g-pellet). p,p'-DDE predominance at these 2 sites suggested historical input; they also had high HCH concentrations (17 and 29 ng/g-pellet). The role of International Pellet Watch (IPW) in science communication was studied through feedbacks from IPW volunteers, case studies and examples. IPW data were categorized into understandable terms and tailored reports based on volunteers' backgrounds complemented with pollution maps. The effectiveness of IPW science communication has led to its use in awareness and education activities focusing on both POPs and plastic debris issues.

  5. Broad-spectrum monitoring strategies for predicting occult precipitation contribution to water balance in a coastal watershed in California: Ground-truthing, areal monitoring and isotopic analysis of fog in the San Francisco Bay region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koohafkan, M.; Thompson, S. E.; Leonardson, R.; Dufour, A.

    2013-12-01

    We showcase a fog monitoring study designed to quantitatively estimate the contribution of summer fog events to the water balance of a coastal watershed managed by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. Two decades of research now clearly show that fog and occult precipitation can be major contributors to the water balance of watersheds worldwide. Monitoring, understanding and predicting occult precipitation is therefore as hydrologically compelling as forecasting precipitation or evaporation, particularly in the face of climate variability. We combine ground-based monitoring and collection strategies with remote sensing technologies, time-lapse imagery, and isotope analysis to trace the ';signature' of fog in physical and ecological processes. Spatial coverage and duration of fog events in the watershed is monitored using time-lapse cameras and leaf wetness sensors strategically positioned to provide estimates of the fog bank extent and cloud base elevation, and this fine-scale data is used to estimate transpiration suppression by fog and is examined in the context of regional climate through the use of satellite imagery. Soil moisture sensors, throughfall collectors and advective fog collectors deployed throughout the watershed provide quantitative estimates of fog drip contribution to soil moisture and plants. Fog incidence records and streamflow monitoring provide daily estimates of fog contribution to streamflow. Isotope analysis of soil water, fog drip, stream water and vegetation samples are used to probe for evidence of direct root and leaf uptake of fog drip by plants. Using this diversity of fog monitoring methods, we develop an empirical framework for the inclusion of fog processes in water balance models.

  6. Energy expenditure prediction via a footwear-based physical activity monitor: Accuracy and comparison to other devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dannecker, Kathryn

    2011-12-01

    Accurately estimating free-living energy expenditure (EE) is important for monitoring or altering energy balance and quantifying levels of physical activity. The use of accelerometers to monitor physical activity and estimate physical activity EE is common in both research and consumer settings. Recent advances in physical activity monitors include the ability to identify specific activities (e.g. stand vs. walk) which has resulted in improved EE estimation accuracy. Recently, a multi-sensor footwear-based physical activity monitor that is capable of achieving 98% activity identification accuracy has been developed. However, no study has compared the EE estimation accuracy for this monitor and compared this accuracy to other similar devices. Purpose . To determine the accuracy of physical activity EE estimation of a footwear-based physical activity monitor that uses an embedded accelerometer and insole pressure sensors and to compare this accuracy against a variety of research and consumer physical activity monitors. Methods. Nineteen adults (10 male, 9 female), mass: 75.14 (17.1) kg, BMI: 25.07(4.6) kg/m2 (mean (SD)), completed a four hour stay in a room calorimeter. Participants wore a footwear-based physical activity monitor, as well as three physical activity monitoring devices used in research: hip-mounted Actical and Actigraph accelerometers and a multi-accelerometer IDEEA device with sensors secured to the limb and chest. In addition, participants wore two consumer devices: Philips DirectLife and Fitbit. Each individual performed a series of randomly assigned and ordered postures/activities including lying, sitting (quietly and using a computer), standing, walking, stepping, cycling, sweeping, as well as a period of self-selected activities. We developed branched (i.e. activity specific) linear regression models to estimate EE from the footwear-based device, and we used the manufacturer's software to estimate EE for all other devices. Results. The shoe

  7. Predicting risk-taking with and without substance use: the effects of parental monitoring, school bonding, and sports participation.

    PubMed

    Dever, Bridget V; Schulenberg, John E; Dworkin, Jodi B; O'Malley, Patrick M; Kloska, Deborah D; Bachman, Jerald G

    2012-12-01

    Risk-taking is statistically normative during adolescence, yet is associated with adverse outcomes including substance use. The present study draws the distinction between protective factors (effective for those identified as high risk takers) and promotive factors (effective for all) against substance use, focusing on parental monitoring, school bonding, and sports participation. A total of 36,514 8th and 10th grade participants in the national Monitoring the Future study were included. Although parental monitoring was associated with lower alcohol and marijuana use among all adolescents (i.e., promotive effect), these effects were strongest among the highest risk takers (i.e., protective effect) and females. School bonding was associated with lower levels of both alcohol and marijuana use among all groups of adolescents, but these promotive effects were weak. Sports participation was associated with higher levels of alcohol use among all males and among 8th grade females who did not identify as high risk takers. Despite being a risk factor for alcohol use, sports participation did demonstrate a promotive effect against marijuana use among 10th grade females only, and especially so for high risk-taking females (i.e., protective effect). Overall, these findings suggest that of the three mechanisms studied, parental monitoring emerged as the most promising entry point for substance use prevention and intervention across groups, particularly for females and high risk-taking adolescents.

  8. High Technology in Australia: Rhetoric or Reality?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sekhon, J. G.; Shannon, A. G.

    1985-01-01

    This paper outlines the imbalance in Australia's intellectual and high technology trade, and argues that if Australia is to move beyond being a high technology colony, a new attitude toward research and development needs to be engendered, particularly in the private sector of industry. It is noted that Australia supplies a small number of the…

  9. Contextualising Multilingualism in Australia Today

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, Robyn

    2015-01-01

    This paper will begin by looking at globalisation, education and transnationalism in the context of Australia's post-war immigration history leading to a brief examination of the international literature surrounding second and third generation immigration. A brief review of international educational trends in English language teaching in recent…

  10. Governing International Education in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sidhu, Ravinder

    2004-01-01

    This paper uses the international education sector in Australia as a case study to argue against understanding globalization as an exogenous force. It introduces the notion of globalization as a governmentality and discusses alternative interpretations which take into account notions of subjectivity, positionality and space/time. The paper…

  11. Education Policy Making in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Broadbent, R. F., Ed.

    Thirteen papers and a speech address the theme of who makes education policy in Australia. Kwong Lee Dow's address assesses national planning in uncertain times and urges flexibility. John Steinle outlines the operation of Australian policy-making and recommends developing think tanks. Edward Holdaway analyzes the complex relationship between…

  12. Improving Reading in Australia's Outback

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharratt, Lyn; Hayes, Peter; Coutts, James

    2015-01-01

    Ten years ago, six teachers established a program of literacy intervention and professional learning in remote northwestern Australia based on the Reading Recovery principles. This group of teachers was determined to learn what had to happen in order for them to make a difference with students and then to make it happen. Their work led to getting…

  13. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  14. The crustal thickness of Australia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clitheroe, G.; Gudmundsson, O.; Kennett, B.L.N.

    2000-01-01

    We investigate the crustal structure of the Australian continent using the temporary broadband stations of the Skippy and Kimba projects and permanent broadband stations. We isolate near-receiver information, in the form of crustal P-to-S conversions, using the receiver function technique. Stacked receiver functions are inverted for S velocity structure using a Genetic Algorithm approach to Receiver Function Inversion (GARFI). From the resulting velocity models we are able to determine the Moho depth and to classify the width of the crust-mantle transition for 65 broadband stations. Using these results and 51 independent estimates of crustal thickness from refraction and reflection profiles, we present a new, improved, map of Moho depth for the Australian continent. The thinnest crust (25 km) occurs in the Archean Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia; the thickest crust (61 km) occurs in Proterozoic central Australia. The average crustal thickness is 38.8 km (standard deviation 6.2 km). Interpolation error estimates are made using kriging and fall into the range 2.5-7.0 km. We find generally good agreement between the depth to the seismologically defined Moho and xenolith-derived estimates of crustal thickness beneath northeastern Australia. However, beneath the Lachlan Fold Belt the estimates are not in agreement, and it is possible that the two techniques are mapping differing parts of a broad Moho transition zone. The Archean cratons of Western Australia appear to have remained largely stable since cratonization, reflected in only slight variation of Moho depth. The largely Proterozoic center of Australia shows relatively thicker crust overall as well as major Moho offsets. We see evidence of the margin of the contact between the Precambrian craton and the Tasman Orogen, referred to as the Tasman Line. Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. A national satellite-based land-use regression model for air pollution exposure assessment in Australia.

    PubMed

    Knibbs, Luke D; Hewson, Michael G; Bechle, Matthew J; Marshall, Julian D; Barnett, Adrian G

    2014-11-01

    Land-use regression (LUR) is a technique that can improve the accuracy of air pollution exposure assessment in epidemiological studies. Most LUR models are developed for single cities, which places limitations on their applicability to other locations. We sought to develop a model to predict nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations with national coverage of Australia by using satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns combined with other predictor variables. We used a generalised estimating equation (GEE) model to predict annual and monthly average ambient NO2 concentrations measured by a national monitoring network from 2006 through 2011. The best annual model explained 81% of spatial variation in NO2 (absolute RMS error=1.4 ppb), while the best monthly model explained 76% (absolute RMS error=1.9 ppb). We applied our models to predict NO2 concentrations at the ~350,000 census mesh blocks across the country (a mesh block is the smallest spatial unit in the Australian census). National population-weighted average concentrations ranged from 7.3 ppb (2006) to 6.3 ppb (2011). We found that a simple approach using tropospheric NO2 column data yielded models with slightly better predictive ability than those produced using a more involved approach that required simulation of surface-to-column ratios. The models were capable of capturing within-urban variability in NO2, and offer the ability to estimate ambient NO2 concentrations at monthly and annual time scales across Australia from 2006-2011. We are making our model predictions freely available for research.

  16. Intrathoracic impedance vs daily weight monitoring for predicting worsening heart failure events: results of the Fluid Accumulation Status Trial (FAST).

    PubMed

    Abraham, William T; Compton, Steven; Haas, Garrie; Foreman, Blair; Canby, Robert C; Fishel, Robert; McRae, Scott; Toledo, Gloria B; Sarkar, Shantanu; Hettrick, Douglas A

    2011-01-01

    The relative sensitivity and unexplained detection rate of changes in intrathoracic impedance has not been compared with standard heart failure (HF) monitoring using daily weight changes. The Fluid Accumulation Status Trial (FAST) prospectively followed 156 HF patients with implanted cardioverter-defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator devices modified to record daily changes in intrathoracic impedance in a blinded fashion for 537±312 days. Daily impedance changes were used to calculate a fluid index that could be compared with a prespecified threshold. True positives were defined as adjudicated episodes of worsening HF occurring within 30 days of a fluid index above threshold or an acute weight gain. Unexplained detections were defined as threshold crossings or acute weight gains not associated with worsening HF. Impedance measurements were performed on >99% of follow-up days, compared with only 76% of days for weight measurements. Sixty-five HF events occurred during follow-up (0.32/patient-year). Forty HF events were detected by impedance but not weight, whereas 5 were detected by weight but not impedance. Sensitivity was greater (76% vs 23%; P<.0001) and unexplained detection rate was lower (1.9 vs 4.3/patient-year; P<.0001) for intrathoracic impedance monitoring at the threshold of 60Ω days compared with acute weight increases of 3 lbs in 1 day or 5 lbs in 3 days and also over a wide range of fluid index and weight thresholds. The sensitivity and unexplained detection rate of intrathoracic impedance monitoring was superior to that seen for acute weight changes. Intrathoracic impedance monitoring represents a useful adjunctive clinical tool for managing HF in patients with implanted devices.

  17. Petroleum system of the Gippsland Basin, Australia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bishop, Michele G.

    2000-01-01

    The Gippsland Basin Province 3930, located on the southeastern coast of Australia, is formed from two successive failed rifts that developed into a passive margin during the Cretaceous. Formation of this basin is related to the break up of Gondwana, which resulted in the separation of Antarctica from Australia, and the separation of the New Zealand and Lord Howe Rise continental crust from Australia. Coals and coaly shales of Late Cretaceous through Eocene age are the source rocks for oil and gas that accumulated predominantly in anticlinal traps. The basin was Australia?s major producing basin until 1996 when daily oil/condensate production from the North West Shelf surpassed it.

  18. Physiologic monitoring in extreme environments: application of microsensors and embedded processors to predict heat stress in fire fighters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Gelder, Carin; Pranger, L. Alex; Urias, Adrian R.; Lo, Ronalee; Wiesmann, William P.; Winchell, Robert J.; Kolka, Margaret A.; Stachenfeld, Nina; Bogucki, Sandy

    2002-05-01

    Interior structural firefighting involves heavy physical exertion under extreme environmental conditions. Personal protective clothing and equipment impose 50 lbs of weight on fire fighters and impede the evaporative cooling mechanisms normally responsible for thermoregulation during exercise. The intense heat of the fire ground further exacerbates the physiological stress on working fire fighters. Occupational morbidity and mortality statistics reflect the impact of such stressors on fire service personnel. Non-invasive physiological monitoring capabilities are needed to more precisely define the cardiovascular responses to the demands of fire fighting and identify markers of impending failure of compensatory mechanisms prior to collapse or onset of irreversible pathology. A suite of sensors designed to provide continuous remote monitoring of fire fighters has been developed. Oximetry sensors are incorporated into SCBA facemask to allow unencumbered monitoring and analysis of cardiovascular and pulmonary function. The present report also describes a model system for physiological studies of fire fighting. This system comprises a series of timed simulations of fire ground tasks performed by fire fighters in a heated environmental chamber. Preliminary testing confirms the feasibility of reliable oximetry signal acquisition under fire ground conditions.

  19. Monitoring of intracellular adenosine triphosphate in CD4(+) T cells to predict the occurrence of cytomegalovirus disease in kidney transplant recipients.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Jacoiste Asín, María Asunción; Fernández-Ruiz, Mario; López-Medrano, Francisco; Aquilino, Carolina; González, Esther; Ruiz-Merlo, Tamara; Gutiérrez, Eduardo; San Juan, Rafael; Paz-Artal, Estela; Andrés, Amado; Aguado, José Maria

    2016-10-01

    The measurement of intracellular concentrations of adenosine triphosphate (iATP) in phytohemagglutinin-stimulated CD4(+) T cells constitutes a surrogate marker for post-transplant cell-mediated immunity (CMI). This assay has shown suboptimal accuracy for predicting infection after kidney transplantation (KT). We hypothesize that its predictive capacity depends on the specific contribution of the CMI to host-pathogen interactions. We assessed iATP levels in 100 KT recipients at baseline and months 1, 3, and 6 (363 measurements). No association was found between iATP at month 1 and the risk for overall or bacterial infection, although such association was evident for cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease (multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio [per 50-unit increment]: 0.83; P-value = 0.048). There were no significant differences in mean iATP between stable patients (319.4 ng/ml) and those developing overall (304.1 ng/ml) or bacterial infection (346.9 ng/ml) over the 45 days following monitoring. However, iATP was significantly lower in patients who developed CMV disease (223.5 ng/ml; P-values <0.002). The optimal cutoff (265 ng/ml) for predicting CMV disease in patients not receiving antiviral prophylaxis yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values of 85.7%, 68.3%, 15.2%, and 98.6%, respectively. In conclusion, a non-pathogen-specific monitoring of CMI by means of iATP informs the risk of CMV disease in KT recipients.

  20. “Transference Ratios” to Predict Total Oxidized Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition – Part I, Monitoring Results

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of model-predicted “transference ratios” is currently under consideration by the US EPA in the formulation of a Secondary National Ambient Air Quality Standard for oxidized nitrogen and oxidized sulfur. This term is an empirical parameter defined for oxidized sulfur (TS)as th...

  1. Temporal overlap of humans and giant lizards (Varanidae; Squamata) in Pleistocene Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Gilbert J.; Louys, Julien; Cramb, Jonathan; Feng, Yue-xing; Zhao, Jian-xin; Hocknull, Scott A.; Webb, Gregory E.; Nguyen, Ai Duc; Joannes-Boyau, Renaud

    2015-10-01

    An obvious but key prerequisite to testing hypotheses concerning the role of humans in the extinction of late Quaternary 'megafauna' is demonstrating that humans and the extinct taxa overlapped, both temporally and spatially. In many regions, a paucity of reliably dated fossil occurrences of megafauna makes it challenging, if not impossible, to test many of the leading extinction hypotheses. The giant monitor lizards of Australia are a case in point. Despite commonly being argued to have suffered extinction at the hands of the first human colonisers (who arrived by 50 ka), it has never been reliably demonstrated that giant monitors and humans temporally overlapped in Australia. Here we present the results of an integrated U-Th and 14C dating study of a late Pleistocene fossil deposit that has yielded the youngest dated remains of giant monitor lizards in Australia. The site, Colosseum Chamber, is a cave deposit in the Mt Etna region, central eastern Australia. Sixteen new dates were generated and demonstrate that the bulk of the material in the deposit accumulated since ca. 50 ka. The new monitor fossil is, minimally, 30 ky younger than the previous youngest reliably dated record for giant lizards in Australia and for the first time, demonstrates that on a continental scale, humans and giant lizards overlapped in time. The new record brings the existing geochronological dataset for Australian giant monitor lizards to seven dated occurrences. With such sparse data, we are hesitant to argue that our new date represents the time of their extinction from the continent. Rather, we suspect that future fossil collecting will yield new samples both older and younger than 50 ka. Nevertheless, we unequivocally demonstrate that humans and giant monitor lizards overlapped temporally in Australia, and thus, humans can only now be considered potential drivers for their extinction.

  2. Adaptive management of pest resistance by Helicoverpa species (Noctuidae) in Australia to the Cry2Ab Bt toxin in Bollgard II® cotton

    PubMed Central

    Downes, Sharon; Mahon, Rodney J; Rossiter, Louise; Kauter, Greg; Leven, Tracey; Fitt, Gary; Baker, Geoff

    2010-01-01

    In Australia, monitoring Helicoverpa species for resistance to the Cry2Ab toxin in second generation Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton has precisely fulfilled its intended function: to warn of increases in resistance frequencies that may lead to field failures of the technology. Prior to the widespread adoption of two-gene Bt cotton, the frequency of Cry2Ab resistance alleles was at least 0.001 in H. armigera and H. punctigera. In the 5 years hence, there has been a significant and apparently exponential increase in the frequency of alleles conferring Cry2Ab resistance in field populations of H. punctigera. Herein we review the history of deploying and managing resistance to Bt cotton in Australia, outline the characteristics of the isolated resistance that likely impact on resistance evolution, and use a simple model to predict likely imminent resistance frequencies. We then discuss potential strategies to mitigate further increases in resistance frequencies, until the release of a third generation product. These include mandating larger structured refuges, applying insecticide to crops late in the season, and restricting the area of Bollgard II® cotton. The area planted to Bt-crops is anticipated to continue to rise worldwide; therefore the strategies being considered in Australia are likely to relate to other situations. PMID:25567948

  3. Land use change detection with LANDSAT-2 data for monitoring and predicting regional water quality degradation. [Arkansas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, H.; Steele, K. (Principal Investigator); Waite, W.; Rice, R.; Shinn, M.; Dillard, T.; Petersen, C.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Comparison between LANDSAT 1 and 2 imagery of Arkansas provided evidence of significant land use changes during the 1972-75 time period. Analysis of Arkansas historical water quality information has shown conclusively that whereas point source pollution generally can be detected by use of water quality data collected by state and federal agencies, sampling methodologies for nonpoint source contamination attributable to surface runoff are totally inadequate. The expensive undertaking of monitoring all nonpoint sources for numerous watersheds can be lessened by implementing LANDSAT change detection analyses.

  4. Epidemiology of osteoarthritis in Australia.

    PubMed

    March, Lynette M; Bagga, Hanish

    2004-03-01

    Arthritis affects around 3 million people in Australia, representing about 15% of the population. Osteoarthritis is the leading cause of pain and disability among the elderly. Osteoarthritis is the third leading cause of life-years lost due to disability. Obesity and joint injury are important potentially modifiable risk factors for the development of osteoarthritis. Obesity is also an important predictor of progression of osteoarthritis. Currently, about 19000 hip and 20000 knee replacements are performed for osteoarthritis in Australia each year. Prevalence of osteoarthritis and the need for total joint replacement surgery are likely to increase because of a combination of increasing risk factors (age, obesity, injury), increasing expectations for improved quality of life, and improved surgical and anaesthetic techniques making surgery possible for more people. Services to provide these cost-effective procedures need to be increased. Primary and secondary prevention programs aimed at reducing obesity, preventing injury and improving rehabilitation and physical activity are urgently required.

  5. Hydrologic monitoring in 1-km2 headwater catchments in Sierra Nevada forests for predictive modeling of hydrologic response to forest treatments across 140-km2 firesheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saksa, P. C.; Bales, R. C.; Conklin, M. H.; Martin, S. E.; Rice, R.

    2010-12-01

    As part of the Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Project, an eight-year study designed to measure the impacts of forest treatments (thinning, mastication, controlled burns) on multiple forest attributes, four headwater catchments were established to provide data on hydrologic response to treatments. These 1-km2 study catchments are each sited within 40-100 km2 firesheds, which in this case largely follow watershed boundaries, and which are the larger study areas for informing adaptive management of approximately 3,000 km2 of mixed-conifer forest in California’s central and southern Sierra Nevada. The aim of the hydrologic design was to put in place a ground-based monitoring network that would measure hydrologic attributes at representative locations, and when combined with remotely sensed data, provide a basis for predictive modeling of the larger study area. The selected locations employ instrument clusters, or groupings of instruments in a compact arrangement, to maximize the number of measurements possible and accessibility to the monitoring sites. The two study firesheds , located in the Tahoe and Sierra National Forests, cover a total of about 140-km2. Within each fireshed, two meteorological stations were placed near 1650-m and 2150-m, spanning the precipitation gradient from lower-elevation rain-dominated to higher-elevation snow-dominated systems. Two headwater streams draining approximately 1-km2 are monitored for stage, discharge, electrical conductivity, and sediment movement. Additionally, instrument nodes to monitor temperature, snow depth and soil moisture are installed within 0.5-1 km of the outlet and meterological stations. These nodes were placed to monitor end members of aspect, slope, elevation and canopy cover, which set the boundaries for the model outputs. High-resolution LiDAR provides the topographic and distributed vegetation characteristics, which are combined with field surveys and standard soils information to define the modeling

  6. Evolving telehealth reimbursement in Australia.

    PubMed

    Bursell, S-E; Zang, S; Keech, A C; Jenkins, A J

    2016-08-01

    Video-based consultation is the only telehealth service reimbursed by the Medicare Benefits Schedule in Australia, but the uptake of telehealth is still low and inconsistent. There is a clear need for the development of appropriate medical evidence to support implementation of telehealth services. With the ubiquitous use of mobile phones, mobile health becomes important in facilitating health services and impacting clinical outcomes anywhere.

  7. Hammersley Range, northern Western Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    The oval shaped basin of the sedimentary rocks of the Hammersley Range, northern Western Australia (23.0S, 119.0E) dominates the center of this near nadir view. The Fortescue River is the remarkably straight, fault controlled feature bordering the Hammersley on the north. Sand dunes are the main surface features in the northeast and southwest. Many dry lakebeds can be seen to the east as light grey colored patches along the watercourses.

  8. Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Along the coast of Queensland, Australia (18.0S, 147.5E), timbered foothills of the Great Dividing Range separate the semi-arid interior of Queensland from the farmlands of the coastal plains. Prominent cleared areas in the forest indicate deforestation for farm and pasture lands. Offshore, islands and the Great Barrier Reef display sand banks along the southern sides of the structures indicating a dominant southerly wind and current direction.

  9. Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kabuchanga, Eric; Flores, Africa; Malaso, Susan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Shaka, Ayub; Limaye, Ashutosh

    2014-01-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  10. Prediction and Monitoring Systems of Creep-Fracture Behavior of 9Cr-1Mo Steels for Teactor Pressure Vessels

    SciTech Connect

    Potirniche, Gabriel; Barlow, Fred D.; Charit, Indrajit; Rink, Karl

    2013-11-26

    A recent workshop on next-generation nuclear plant (NGNP) topics underscored the need for research studies on the creep fracture behavior of two materials under consideration for reactor pressure vessel (RPV) applications: 9Cr-1Mo and SA-5XX steels. This research project will provide a fundamental understanding of creep fracture behavior of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel welds for through modeling and experimentation and will recommend a design for an RPV structural health monitoring system. Following are the specific objectives of this research project: Characterize metallurgical degradation in welded modified 9Cr-1Mo steel resulting from aging processes and creep service conditions; Perform creep tests and characterize the mechanisms of creep fracture process; Quantify how the microstructure degradation controls the creep strength of welded steel specimens; Perform finite element (FE) simulations using polycrystal plasticity to understand how grain texture affects the creep fracture properties of welds; Develop a microstructure-based creep fracture model to estimate RPVs service life; Manufacture small, prototypic, cylindrical pressure vessels, subject them to degradation by aging, and measure their leak rates; Simulate damage evolution in creep specimens by FE analyses; Develop a model that correlates gas leak rates from welded pressure vessels with the amount of microstructural damage; Perform large-scale FE simulations with a realistic microstructure to evaluate RPV performance at elevated temperatures and creep strength; Develop a fracture model for the structural integrity of RPVs subjected to creep loads; and Develop a plan for a non-destructive structural health monitoring technique and damage detection device for RPVs.

  11. Analysis of ctDNA to predict prognosis and monitor treatment responses in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Cheng, He; Liu, Chen; Jiang, Jiahao; Luo, Guopei; Lu, Yu; Jin, Kaizhou; Guo, Meng; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Xu, Jin; Liu, Liang; Ni, Quanxing; Yu, Xianjun

    2017-05-15

    Cell-free circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in plasma has been used as a potential noninvasive biomarker for various tumors. Our study was performed to evaluate the clinical implications of ctDNA detection in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer. First, we attempted to prospectively screen a panel of 60 genes in cell-free DNA (cfDNA) from ten metastatic pancreatic cancer patients via exome sequencing. Second, droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) was used to identify potential mutations in a cohort of 188 patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer. Finally, to preliminary evaluate the potential role of ctDNA in monitoring tumor responses following chemotherapy, we detected the presence of ctDNA in serial plasma samples from 13 metastatic pancreatic cancer patients (Clinical trial: NCT02017015). The analysis revealed five somatic mutations at BRCA2, EGFR, KDR and ERBB2 gene loci. The frequencies of ctDNA mutation at BRCA2, KDR, EGFR, ERBB2 exon17 and ERBB2 exon27 were 11.7%, 13.8%, 13.3%, 13.3% and 6.4% respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified the ERBB2 exon17 mutation (p = 0.035, HR = 1.61) as an independent factor associated with overall survival among metastatic pancreatic cancer patients. Furthermore, the rate of coincident detection of ctDNA and response to treatment as assessed by CT imaging was 76.9% (10 of 13 cases), and the presence of ctDNA provided the earliest measure of treatment in 6 of 10 patients (60%). ctDNA sequencing may have clinical value for determining metastatic pancreatic cancer treatment and monitoring the tumor response.

  12. Super learner analysis of electronic adherence data improves viral prediction and may provide strategies for selective HIV RNA monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Petersen, Maya L.; LeDell, Erin; Schwab, Joshua; Sarovar, Varada; Gross, Robert; Reynolds, Nancy; Haberer, Jessica E.; Goggin, Kathy; Golin, Carol; Arnsten, Julia; Rosen, Marc; Remien, Robert; Etoori, David; Wilson, Ira; Simoni, Jane M.; Erlen, Judith A.; van der Laan, Mark J.; Liu, Honghu; Bangsberg, David R

    2015-01-01

    Objective Regular HIV RNA testing for all HIV positive patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expensive and has low yield since most tests are undetectable. Selective testing of those at higher risk of failure may improve efficiency. We investigated whether a novel analysis of adherence data could correctly classify virological failure and potentially inform a selective testing strategy. Design Multisite prospective cohort consortium. Methods We evaluated longitudinal data on 1478 adult patients treated with ART and monitored using the Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS) in 16 United States cohorts contributing to the MACH14 consortium. Since the relationship between adherence and virological failure is complex and heterogeneous, we applied a machine-learning algorithm (Super Learner) to build a model for classifying failure and evaluated its performance using cross-validation. Results Application of the Super Learner algorithm to MEMS data, combined with data on CD4+ T cell counts and ART regimen, significantly improved classification of virological failure over a single MEMS adherence measure. Area under the ROC curve, evaluated on data not used in model fitting, was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75, 0.80) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76, 0.81) for failure defined as single HIV RNA level >1000 copies/ml or >400 copies/ml, respectively. Our results suggest 25–31% of viral load tests could be avoided while maintaining sensitivity for failure detection at or above 95%, for a cost savings of $16–$29 per person-month. Conclusions Our findings provide initial proof-of-concept for the potential use of electronic medication adherence data to reduce costs through behavior-driven HIV RNA testing. PMID:25942462

  13. Monitoring and Predicting the Long Distance Transport of Fusarium graminearum, Causal Agent of Fusarium Head Blight in Wheat and Barley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prussin, Aaron Justin, II

    Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused by Fusarium graminearum , is a serious disease of wheat and barley that has caused several billion dollars in crop losses over the last decade in the United States. Spores of F. graminearum are released from corn and small grain residues left-over from the previous growing season and are transported long distances in the atmosphere before being deposited. Current risk assessment tools consider environmental conditions favorable for disease development, but do not include spore transport. Long distance transport models have been proposed for a number of plant pathogens, but many of these models have not been experimentally validated. In order to predict the atmospheric transport of F. graminearum, the potential source strength ( Qpot) of inoculum must be known. We conducted a series of laboratory and field experiments to estimate Qpot from a field-scale source of inoculum of F. graminearum. Perithecia were generated on artificial (carrot agar) and natural (corn stalk) substrates. Artificial substrate (carrot agar) produced 15+/-0.4 perithecia cm-2, and natural substrate (corn stalk) produced 44+/-2 perithecia cm-2. Individual perithecia were excised from both substrate types and allowed to release ascospores every 24 hours. Perithecia generated from artificial (carrot agar) and natural (corn stalk) substrates released a mean of 104+/-5 and 276+/-16 ascospores, respectively. A volumetric spore trap was placed inside a 3,716 m2 clonal source of inoculum in 2011 and 2012. Results indicated that ascospores were released under field conditions predominantly (>90%) during the night (1900 to 0700 hours). Estimates of Qpot for our field-scale sources of inoculum were approximately 4 billion ascospores per 3,716 m 2. Release-recapture studies were conducted from a clonal field-scale source of F. graminearum in 2011 and 2012. Microsatellites were used to identify the released clone of F. graminearum at distances up to 1 km from the source

  14. Methods and Tools for Monitoring and Prediction of the Large-Scale Environmental Impact of Railway Noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ELBERS, F. B. J.

    2000-03-01

    Due to environmental impact regulations there is a demand for methods and tools to determine noise reception levels near railway lines. Currently, a wide variety of methods and tools is available. Fast computers now enable us to develop powerful tools that combine simplified prediction methods with GIS systems. These new systems allow the study of noise reception levels and environmental impact on a large-scale (complete network, national or international), while more detailed and labour-intensive methods and tools are used when demanded by law. This paper presents a brief overview of the noise prediction methods and tools used in the Netherlands. The focus is on the advantages and restrictions of the different methods. Finally, the paper gives an overview of the actual advantages and restrictions of the recently extended Gerano method Gerano98 (Geographic Railway Noise). Gerano was originally based on the “basic Dutch calculation rules for railway noise”. Gerano98 was extended using simplified prediction schemes for the most relevant parts of the “detailed Dutch calculation rules for railway noise”. This most recent calculation method, combined with geographic input features, provides the possibility of determining noise impact and the noise measures to be taken on both the medium and large scale. Examples of the application of the methods and tools to specific (medium- and large-scale) projects are provided. The medium-scale project presents the results of a selection of the prefered line between Amsterdam and Zwolle. The large-scale project (the complete Dutch railway network) shows the results of the comparison of noise measures at source with noise barriers or housing insulation. For both projects the applicability and the usefulness of the methods in these situations is discussed. In conclusion four developments of the Gerano concept are described which have recently been finished or will be so in the near future.

  15. Monitoring and Predicting the Export and Fate of Global Ocean Net Primary Production: The EXPORTS Field Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Exports Science Definition Team

    2016-04-01

    Ocean ecosystems play a critical role in the Earth's carbon cycle and its quantification on global scales remains one of the greatest challenges in global ocean biogeochemistry. The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from Remote Sensing (EXPORTS) science plan is to develop a predictive understanding of the export and fate of global ocean primary production and its implications for the Earth's carbon cycle in present and future climates. NASA's satellite ocean-color data record has revolutionized our understanding of global marine systems. EXPORTS is designed to advance the utility of NASA ocean color assets to predict how changes in ocean primary production will impact the global carbon cycle. EXPORTS will create a predictive understanding of both the export of organic carbon from the euphotic zone and its fate in the underlying "twilight zone" (depths of 500 m or more) where variable fractions of exported organic carbon are respired back to CO2. Ultimately, it is the sequestration of deep organic carbon transport that defines the impact of ocean biota on atmospheric CO2 levels and hence climate. EXPORTS will generate a new, detailed understanding of ocean carbon transport processes and pathways linking upper ocean phytoplankton processes to the export and fate of organic matter in the underlying twilight zone using a combination of field campaigns, remote sensing and numerical modeling. The overarching objective for EXPORTS is to ensure the success of future satellite missions by establishing mechanistic relationships between remotely sensed signals and carbon cycle processes. Through a process-oriented approach, EXPORTS will foster new insights on ocean carbon cycling that will maximize its societal relevance and be a key component in the U.S. investment to understand Earth as an integrated system.

  16. Monitoring and Predicting Land-use Changes and the Hydrology of the Urbanized Paochiao Watershed in Taiwan Using Remote Sensing Data, Urban Growth Models and a Hydrological Model.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yu-Pin; Lin, Yun-Bin; Wang, Yen-Tan; Hong, Nien-Ming

    2008-02-04

    Monitoring and simulating urban sprawl and its effects on land-use patterns andhydrological processes in urbanized watersheds are essential in land-use and waterresourceplanning and management. This study applies a novel framework to the urbangrowth model Slope, Land use, Excluded land, Urban extent, Transportation, andHillshading (SLEUTH) and land-use change with the Conversion of Land use and itsEffects (CLUE-s) model using historical SPOT images to predict urban sprawl in thePaochiao watershed in Taipei County, Taiwan. The historical and predicted land-use datawas input into Patch Analyst to obtain landscape metrics. This data was also input to theGeneralized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model to analyze the effects of futureurban sprawl on the land-use patterns and watershed hydrology. The landscape metrics ofthe historical SPOT images show that land-use patterns changed between 1990-2000. TheSLEUTH model accurately simulated historical land-use patterns and urban sprawl in thePaochiao watershed, and simulated future clustered land-use patterns (2001-2025). TheCLUE-s model also simulated land-use patterns for the same period and yielded historical trends in the metrics of land-use patterns. The land-use patterns predicted by the SLEUTHand CLUE-s models show the significant impact urban sprawl will have on land-usepatterns in the Paochiao watershed. The historical and predicted land-use patterns in thewatershed tended to fragment, had regular shapes and interspersion patterns, but wererelatively less isolated in 2001-2025 and less interspersed from 2005-2025 compared withland-use pattern in 1990. During the study, the variability and magnitude of hydrologicalcomponents based on the historical and predicted land-use patterns were cumulativelyaffected by urban sprawl in the watershed; specifically, surface runoff increasedsignificantly by 22.0% and baseflow decreased by 18.0% during 1990-2025. The proposedapproach is an effective means of enhancing land

  17. Canine rabies in Australia: a review of preparedness and research needs.

    PubMed

    Sparkes, J; Fleming, P J S; Ballard, G; Scott-Orr, H; Durr, S; Ward, M P

    2015-06-01

    Australia is unique as a populated continent in that canine rabies is exotic, with only one likely incursion in 1867. This is despite the presence of a widespread free-ranging dog population, which includes the naturalized dingo, feral domestic dogs and dingo-dog cross-breeds. To Australia's immediate north, rabies has recently spread within the Indonesian archipelago, with outbreaks occurring in historically free islands to the east including Bali, Flores, Ambon and the Tanimbar Islands. Australia depends on strict quarantine protocols to prevent importation of a rabid animal, but the risk of illegal animal movements by fishing and recreational vessels circumventing quarantine remains. Predicting where rabies will enter Australia is important, but understanding dog population dynamics and interactions, including contact rates in and around human populations, is essential for rabies preparedness. The interactions among and between Australia's large populations of wild, free-roaming and restrained domestic dogs require quantification for rabies incursions to be detected and controlled. The imminent risk of rabies breaching Australian borders makes the development of disease spread models that will assist in the deployment of cost-effective surveillance, improve preventive strategies and guide disease management protocols vitally important. Here, we critically review Australia's preparedness for rabies, discuss prevailing assumptions and models, identify knowledge deficits in free-roaming dog ecology relating to rabies maintenance and speculate on the likely consequences of endemic rabies for Australia.

  18. The potential wind power resource in Australia: a new perspective.

    PubMed

    Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Australia's wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia's electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia's energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia's wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast's electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it's intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.

  19. Spatiotemporal fuzzy based climate forecasting for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montazerolghaem, M.; Vervoort, R. W.; Minasny, B.; McBratney, A.

    2012-12-01

    Variation in weather and climate events impacts agriculture production processes, and profits across years. Therefore, seasonal rainfall prediction is an important factor for strategic and tactical decision making in agricultural, land and water resource management. This study aims to apply optimal data-driven techniques for fine resolution climate classification and forecasting over South-eastern Australia. Data were used in this study were included daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data collected over 40 years from 107 weather stations in Southeast Australia acquired from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). Fuzzy-k means clustering techniques (FKM) were applied on one year weekly time series. Cluster centroids and memberships of rainfall and temperature weekly time series for one year period provide meaningful and insight into weather variability in time and space over the study. Stations are grouped based on their memberships in rainfall and temperature classes. The result showed that FKM is a useful method for trend analysis and pattern discovery in space and time. Outcomes indicate improvement in the climate classification of the area at the station level. An associate project is gathering higher spatial density on-farm data. This high-resolution climate data collected at the farm scale will be analyzed similarly in the future to improve spatial resolution of our classification. The second stage of this study consists of development of a fine-resolution forecasting model for predicting rainfall. FKM was applied on a metrics which included input and output time series to extract rules and relationships between them. After classification, rules were extracted within each class based on forecasting time, space and extreme climate events followed by effective sea surface temperature anomalies. These rules and a lookup table of input and output centroids were used for rainfall prediction in the form of weekly time series for the next six months. One

  20. Monitoring and modeling to predict Escherichia coli at Presque Isle Beach 2, City of Erie, Erie County, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zimmerman, Tammy M.

    2006-01-01

    The Lake Erie shoreline in Pennsylvania spans nearly 40 miles and is a valuable recreational resource for Erie County. Nearly 7 miles of the Lake Erie shoreline lies within Presque Isle State Park in Erie, Pa. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria at permitted Presque Isle beaches occasionally exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard, resulting in unsafe swimming conditions and closure of the beaches. E. coli concentrations and other water-quality and environmental data collected at Presque Isle Beach 2 during the 2004 and 2005 recreational seasons were used to develop models using tobit regression analyses to predict E. coli concentrations. All variables statistically related to E. coli concentrations were included in the initial regression analyses, and after several iterations, only those explanatory variables that made the models significantly better at predicting E. coli concentrations were included in the final models. Regression models were developed using data from 2004, 2005, and the combined 2-year dataset. Variables in the 2004 model and the combined 2004-2005 model were log10 turbidity, rain weight, wave height (calculated), and wind direction. Variables in the 2005 model were log10 turbidity and wind direction. Explanatory variables not included in the final models were water temperature, streamflow, wind speed, and current speed; model results indicated these variables did not meet significance criteria at the 95-percent confidence level (probabilities were greater than 0.05). The predicted E. coli concentrations produced by the models were used to develop probabilities that concentrations would exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters. Analysis of the exceedence probabilities helped determine a threshold probability for each model, chosen such that the correct number of exceedences and nonexceedences was maximized and the number of false positives and false negatives was

  1. A remote sensing tool to monitor and predict epidemiologic outbreaks of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrios, J. M.

    2009-04-01

    Lyme disease and Hanta virus infection are the result of the conjunction of several climatic and ecological conditions. Although both affections have different causal agents, they share an important characteristic which is the fact that rodents play an important role in the contagium. One of the most important agents in the dispersion of these diseases is the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareoulus). The bank vole is a common host for both, the Borrelia bacteria which via the ticks (Ixodes ricinus) reaches the human body and causes the Lyme disease, and the Nephropatia epidemica which is caused by Puumala Hantavirus and affects kidneys in humans. The prefered habitat of bank voles is broad-leaf forests with an important presence of beeches (Fagus sylvatica) and oaks (Quercus sp.) and a relatively dense low vegetation layer. These vegetation systems are common in West-Europe and their dynamics have a great influence in the bank voles population and, therefore, in the spreading of the infections this study is concerned about. The fact that the annual seed production is not stable in time has an important effect in bank voles population and, as it has been described in other studies, in the number of reported cases of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease. The years in which an abundant production of seeds is observed are referred to as mast years which are believed to obey to cyclic patterns and to certain climatological characteristics of the preceding years. Statistical analysis have confirmed the correlation in the behaviour of the number of infected cases and the presence of mast years. This project aims at the design of a remote sensing based system (INFOPRESS - INFectious disease Outbreak Prediction REmote Sensing based System) that should enable local and national health care instances to predict and locate the occurrence of infection outbreaks and design policies to counteract undesired effects. The predictive capabilities of the system are based on the

  2. A remote sensing tool to monitor and predict epidemiologic outbreaks of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrios, M.; Verstraeten, W. W.; Amipour, S.; Wambacq, J.; Aerts, J.-M.; Maes, P.; Berckmans, D.; Lagrou, K.; van Ranst, M.; Coppin, P.

    2009-04-01

    Lyme disease and Hanta virus infection are the result of the conjunction of several climatic and ecological conditions. Although both affections have different causal agents, they share an important characteristic which is the fact that rodents play an important role in the contagion. One of the most important agents in the dispersion of these diseases is the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareoulus). The bank vole is a common host for both, the Borrelia bacteria which via the ticks (Ixodes ricinus) reaches the human body and causes the Lyme disease, and the Nephropatia epidemica which is caused by Puumala Hantavirus and affects kidneys in humans. The prefered habitat of bank voles is broad-leaf forests with an important presence of beeches (Fagus sylvatica) and oaks (Quercus sp.) and a relatively dense low vegetation layer. These vegetation systems are common in West-Europe and their dynamics have a great influence in the bank voles population and, therefore, in the spreading of the infections this study is concerned about. The fact that the annual seed production is not stable in time has an important effect in bank voles population and, as it has been described in other studies, in the number of reported cases of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease. The years in which an abundant production of seeds is observed are referred to as mast years which are believed to obey to cyclic patterns and to certain climatologically characteristics of the preceding years. Statistical analysis have confirmed the correlation in the behaviour of the number of infected cases and the presence of mast years. This project aims at the design of a remote sensing based system (INFOPRESS - INFectious disease Outbreak Prediction REmote Sensing based System) that should enable local and national health care instances to predict and locate the occurrence of infection outbreaks and design policies to counteract undesired effects. The predictive capabilities of the system are based on the

  3. Use of predictive algorithms in-home monitoring of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Sanchez-Morillo, Daniel; Fernandez-Granero, Miguel A; Leon-Jimenez, Antonio

    2016-08-01

    Major reported factors associated with the limited effectiveness of home telemonitoring interventions in chronic respiratory conditions include the lack of useful early predictors, poor patient compliance and the poor performance of conventional algorithms for detecting deteriorations. This article provides a systematic review of existing algorithms and the factors associated with their performance in detecting exacerbations and supporting clinical decisions in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. An electronic literature search in Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and Cochrane library was conducted to identify relevant articles published between 2005 and July 2015. A total of 20 studies (16 COPD, 4 asthma) that included research about the use of algorithms in telemonitoring interventions in asthma and COPD were selected. Differences on the applied definition of exacerbation, telemonitoring duration, acquired physiological signals and symptoms, type of technology deployed and algorithms used were found. Predictive models with good clinically reliability have yet to be defined, and are an important goal for the future development of telehealth in chronic respiratory conditions. New predictive models incorporating both symptoms and physiological signals are being tested in telemonitoring interventions with positive outcomes. However, the underpinning algorithms behind these models need be validated in larger samples of patients, for longer periods of time and with well-established protocols. In addition, further research is needed to identify novel predictors that enable the early detection of deteriorations, especially in COPD. Only then will telemonitoring achieve the aim of preventing hospital admissions, contributing to the reduction of health resource utilization and improving the quality of life of patients.

  4. Pilot study on the short-term prediction of symptoms in children with hay fever monitored with e-Health technology.

    PubMed

    Costa, C; Menesatti, P; Brighetti, M A; Travaglini, A; Rimatori, V; Di Rienzo Businco, A; Pelosi, S; Bianchi, A; Matricardi, P M; Tripodi, S

    2014-11-01

    Forecasting symptoms of pollen-related allergic rhinoconjunctivitis at the level of individual patients would be useful to improve disease control and plan pharmacological intervention. Information Technology nowadays facilitates a more efficient and easier monitoring of patients with chronic diseases. We aimed this study at testing the efficiency of a model to short-term forecast symptoms of pollen-AR at the "individual" patient level. We analysed the data prospectively acquired from a group of 21 Italian children affected by pollen-related allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and recorded their symptoms and medication "Average Combined Score" (ACS) on a daily basis during April-June 2010-2011 through an informatics platform (Allergymonitor™). The dataset used for prediction included 15 variables in four categories: (A) date, (B) meteo-climatic, (C) atmospheric concentration of 5 pollen taxa, and (D) intensity of the patient's IgE sensitization. A Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis approach was used in order to predict ACS values above a fixed threshold value (0.5). The best performing predicting model correctly classified 77.8% ± 10.3% and 75.5% ± 13.2% of the recorded days in the model and test years, respectively. In this model, 9/21 patients showed ≥ 80% correct classification of the recorded days in both years. A better performance was associated with a higher degree of patient's atopic sensitization and a time lag > 1. Symptom forecasts of seasonal allergic rhinitis are possible in highly polysensitised patients in areas with complex pollen exposure. However, only predictive models tailored to the individual patient's allergic susceptibility are accurate enough. Multicenter studies in large population samples adopting the same acquisition data system on smart phones are now needed to confirm this encouraging outcome.

  5. Diffusion-Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Therapy Response Monitoring and Early Treatment Prediction of Photothermal Therapy.

    PubMed

    Fu, Guifeng; Zhu, Lei; Yang, Kai; Zhuang, Rongqiang; Xie, Jin; Zhang, Fan

    2016-03-02

    Photothermal therapy (PTT) as a relatively new cancer treatment method has attracted worldwide attention. Previous research on PTT has focused on its therapy efficiency and selectivity. The early prognosis of PTT, which is pivotal for the assessment of the treatment and the therapy stratification, however, has been rarely studied. In the present study, we investigated diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) as a tool for therapy monitoring and early prognosis of PTT. To this end, we injected PEGylated graphene oxide (GO-PEG) or iron oxide deposited graphene oxide (GO-IONP-PEG) to 4T1 tumor models and irradiated the tumors at different drug-light intervals to induce PTT. For GO-IONP-PEG injected animals, we also included therapy arms where an external magnetic field was applied to the tumors to improve the delivery of the nanoparticle transducers. DW-MRI was performed at different time points after PTT and the tumor apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) were analyzed and compared. Our studies show that photothermal agents, magnetic guidance, and drug-light intervals can all affect PTT treatment efficacy. Impressively, ADC value changes at early time points after PTT (less than 48 h) were found to be well-correlated with tumor growth suppression that was apparent days or weeks later. The changes were most sensitive to conditions that can extend the survival for more than 4 weeks, in which cases the 48 h ADC values were increased by more than 80%. These studies demonstrate for the first time that DW-MRI can be an accurate prognosis tool for PTT, suggesting an important role it can play in the future PTT evaluation and clinical translation of the modality.

  6. Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Australia and Germany. Australia Centre Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burke, Gerald, Ed.; Reuling, Jochen, Ed.

    This document contains 17 papers on vocational training and lifelong learning in Australia and Germany. The following papers are included: "Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Australia and Germany: Background" (Gerald Burke); "Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Australia: Observations and Conclusions from a…

  7. Predictive modeling of the outcomes of chemotherapy-induced (febrile) neutropenia prophylaxis with biosimilar filgrastim (MONITOR-GCSF study)

    PubMed Central

    Aapro, M.; Ludwig, H.; Bokemeyer, C.; Gascón, P.; Boccadoro, M.; Denhaerynck, K.; Krendyukov, A.; Gorray, M.; MacDonald, K.; Abraham, I.

    2016-01-01

    Background Risk models of chemotherapy-induced (CIN) and febrile neutropenia (FN) have to date focused on determinants measured at the start of chemotherapy. We extended this static approach with a dynamic approach of CIN/FN risk modeling at the start of each cycle. Design We applied predictive modeling using multivariate logistic regression to identify determinants of CIN/FN episodes and related hospitalizations and chemotherapy disturbances (CIN/FN consequences) in analyses at the patient (‘ever’ during the whole period of chemotherapy) and cycle-level (during a given chemotherapy cycle). Statistical dependence of cycle data being ‘nested’ under patients was managed using generalized estimation equations. Predictive performance of each model was evaluated using bootstrapped c concordance statistics. Results Static patient-level risk models of ‘ever’ experiencing CIN/FN adverse events and consequences during a planned chemotherapy regimen included predictors related to history, risk factors, and prophylaxis initiation and intensity. Dynamic cycle-level risk models of experiencing CIN/FN adverse events and consequences in an upcoming cycle included predictors related to history, risk factors, and prophylaxis initiation and intensity; as well as prophylaxis duration, CIN/FN in prior cycle, and treatment center characteristics. Conclusion(s) These ‘real-world evidence’ models provide clinicians with the ability to anticipate CIN/FN adverse events and their consequences at the start of a chemotherapy line (static models); and, innovatively, to assess risk of CIN/FN adverse events and their consequences at the start of each cycle (dynamic models). This enables individualized patient treatment and is consistent with the EORTC recommendation to re-appraise CIN/FN risk at the start of each cycle. Prophylaxis intensity (under-, correctly-, or over-prophylacted relative to current EORTC guidelines) is a major determinant. Under-prophylaxis is clinically

  8. Historical Thermometer Exposures in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, Neville; Tapp, Roger; Burrows, Kevin; Richards, David

    1996-06-01

    There is ample contempory evidence that most meteorological themometers in Australia were not exposed in Stevenson screens until very late in the nineteenth century, and in many places not until well into the twentieth century. There is also evidence, from a long-running comparision at Adelaide, that mean temperatures in a Stevenson screen are lower than in an open stand in Australian conditions. Thus, there are strong grounds for expecting that ninteenth century, and some early twentieth century, Australian temperatures are biased warm, relative to modern exposures.

  9. Evaluation of Non-Viral Surrogate Markers as Predictive Indicators for Monitoring Progression of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection: An Eight-Year Analysis in a Regional Center.

    PubMed

    Rafatpanah, Houshang; Essmailian, Leila; Hedayati-Moghaddam, Mohammad Reza; Vakili, Rosita; Norouzi, Mehdi; Sarvghad, Mohammad Reza; Hosseinpour, Ali Mohammad; Sharebiani, Hiva; Rezaee, S A Rahim

    2016-01-01

    Suitable methods for clinical monitoring of HIV-infected patients are crucial in resource-poor settings. Demographic data, clinical staging, and laboratory findings for 112 asymptomatic subjects positive for HIV were assessed at the first admission and the last visit from 2002 to 2010. Cox regression analysis showed hemoglobin (Hb) (HR = 0.643, P = 0.021) to be a predictive indicator for disease progression, while CD4, CD8, and platelet counts showed low HRs, despite having significant probability values. Hb and total lymphocyte count (TLC) rapidly declined from stage II to III (10.9 and 29.6%, respectively). Reduced CD4 and platelet counts and Hb during stage I were associated with disease progression, and TLC was correlated with CD4 counts at the last follow-up (P < 0.001). However, WHO TLC cutoff of 1,200 cell/mm(3) had 26.1% sensitivity and 98.6% specificity. ROC curve analysis suggested that a TLC cutoff of 1,800 cell/mm(3) was more reliable in this region. Statistical analysis and data mining findings showed that Hb and TLC, and their rapid decline from stage II to III, in addition to reduced platelet count, could be valuable markers for a surrogate algorithm for monitoring of HIV-infected subjects and starting anti-viral therapy in the absence of sophisticated detection assays.

  10. The use of GIS for monitoring and predicting urban growth in east and west St Paul, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.

    PubMed

    Hathout, S

    2002-11-01

    Most urban growth in Canada occurs in the urban-rural fringe. The increasing dispersal of the Canadian urban population is due to centrifugal forces pulling urbanites past the suburbs into the surrounding exurban communities. Most Canadian urban centres are located on prime agricultural land. Exurban sprawl devours an inordinate amount of the better agricultural land. The growth around the city of Winnipeg is a case in point. Within Winnipeg's urban field are the rural municipalities of East and West St Paul. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of urban growth on the agricultural land of these RMs as well as the rate of urban growth in both Municipalities based on database analysis using aerial photographs taken in 1960 and 1989 and Geographic Information System (GIS). East St Paul was found to have a higher rate of urbanization (from 10.14% to 43.75%) between 1960 and 1989 than West St Paul (from 7.36% to 23.57%). The growth prediction using Markov probability chain analysis showed that East St Paul will henceforth experience a reduced rate of increase than West St Paul. The rate of urbanization for both RMs is found to be comparable with areas surrounding other major cities such as Toronto. The largest increases in urban land use categories occurred in and around the existing exurban settlements. It was found that most urbanization take place on the most fertile soil.

  11. Effect-based tools for monitoring and predicting the ecotoxicological effects of chemicals in the aquatic environment.

    PubMed

    Connon, Richard E; Geist, Juergen; Werner, Inge

    2012-01-01

    Ecotoxicology faces the challenge of assessing and predicting the effects of an increasing number of chemical stressors on aquatic species and ecosystems. Herein we review currently applied tools in ecological risk assessment, combining information on exposure with expected biological effects or environmental water quality standards; currently applied effect-based tools are presented based on whether exposure occurs in a controlled laboratory environment or in the field. With increasing ecological relevance the reproducibility, specificity and thus suitability for standardisation of methods tends to diminish. We discuss the use of biomarkers in ecotoxicology including ecotoxicogenomics-based endpoints, which are becoming increasingly important for the detection of sublethal effects. Carefully selected sets of biomarkers allow an assessment of exposure to and effects of toxic chemicals, as well as the health status of organisms and, when combined with chemical analysis, identification of toxicant(s). The promising concept of "adverse outcome pathways (AOP)" links mechanistic responses on the cellular level with whole organism, population, community and potentially ecosystem effects and services. For most toxic mechanisms, however, practical application of AOPs will require more information and the identification of key links between responses, as well as key indicators, at different levels of biological organization, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services.

  12. Effect-Based Tools for Monitoring and Predicting the Ecotoxicological Effects of Chemicals in the Aquatic Environment

    PubMed Central

    Connon, Richard E.; Geist, Juergen; Werner, Inge

    2012-01-01

    Ecotoxicology faces the challenge of assessing and predicting the effects of an increasing number of chemical stressors on aquatic species and ecosystems. Herein we review currently applied tools in ecological risk assessment, combining information on exposure with expected biological effects or environmental water quality standards; currently applied effect-based tools are presented based on whether exposure occurs in a controlled laboratory environment or in the field. With increasing ecological relevance the reproducibility, specificity and thus suitability for standardisation of methods tends to diminish. We discuss the use of biomarkers in ecotoxicology including ecotoxicogenomics-based endpoints, which are becoming increasingly important for the detection of sublethal effects. Carefully selected sets of biomarkers allow an assessment of exposure to and effects of toxic chemicals, as well as the health status of organisms and, when combined with chemical analysis, identification of toxicant(s). The promising concept of “adverse outcome pathways (AOP)” links mechanistic responses on the cellular level with whole organism, population, community and potentially ecosystem effects and services. For most toxic mechanisms, however, practical application of AOPs will require more information and the identification of key links between responses, as well as key indicators, at different levels of biological organization, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. PMID:23112741

  13. T Cell Receptor Excision Circle (TREC) Monitoring after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation; a Predictive Marker for Complications and Clinical Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Gaballa, Ahmed; Sundin, Mikael; Stikvoort, Arwen; Abumaree, Muhamed; Uzunel, Mehmet; Sairafi, Darius; Uhlin, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a well-established treatment modality for a variety of malignant diseases as well as for inborn errors of the metabolism or immune system. Regardless of disease origin, good clinical effects are dependent on proper immune reconstitution. T cells are responsible for both the beneficial graft-versus-leukemia (GVL) effect against malignant cells and protection against infections. The immune recovery of T cells relies initially on peripheral expansion of mature cells from the graft and later on the differentiation and maturation from donor-derived hematopoietic stem cells. The formation of new T cells occurs in the thymus and as a byproduct, T cell receptor excision circles (TRECs) are released upon rearrangement of the T cell receptor. Detection of TRECs by PCR is a reliable method for estimating the amount of newly formed T cells in the circulation and, indirectly, for estimating thymic function. Here, we discuss the role of TREC analysis in the prediction of clinical outcome after allogeneic HSCT. Due to the pivotal role of T cell reconstitution we propose that TREC analysis should be included as a key indicator in the post-HSCT follow-up. PMID:27727179

  14. Surveillance of hospital-acquired infections in Australia--One Nation, Many States.

    PubMed

    Richards, Michael J; Russo, Phillip L

    2007-06-01

    Surveillance programmes for hospital-acquired infections differ amongst the Australian states. Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia have recent substantial initiatives in development of statewide programmes. Whilst the definitions for surgical site infections (SSIs) and bloodstream infections (BSI) developed by the Australian Infection Control Association (AICA) do not differ from the US National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance (NNIS) programme definitions for SSI and intensive care unit (ICU) acquired central line-associated BSI, only two states use NNIS risk adjustment methods in reporting infection rates. Differences exist in the surgical procedures under surveillance, ICU surveillance, hospital-wide BSI surveillance, staff health immunization surveillance, process measures such us surgical antibiotic prophylaxis and small hospital programmes. Only in the area of antibiotic use surveillance has national consensus been reached. In Victoria, NNIS risk adjustment had limited usefulness in predicting SSIs, especially after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) surveillance had limited acceptance, and is not undertaken in other states. Regular reporting of surgical antibiotic prophylaxis data has been followed by improvement in choice of antibiotic in some procedures. The South Australian programme for the surveillance of multiresistant organisms (MROs) has documented substantial improvement in meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) morbidity over time coincident with the introduction of hand hygiene programmes and other measures. In Queensland, statewide monitoring of needlestick injuries is established. In Victoria, the small hospital programme concentrated on process measures, and in Queensland with a standardized investigation pathways for "signal" events. Data quality presented substantial challenges in small Victorian hospitals. Whilst state-based programmes have facilitated

  15. Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penn, Ray

    1993-01-01

    Presents an annotated bibliography of 25 items published by the Australian Government Publications Service in 1992-93 that deal with a wide variety of issues, including trade performance, indigenous Australians, multiculturalism, the environment, aging, privacy versus law enforcement, urban life, health, violence against women, cultural tourism,…

  16. Hydrocarbon-related diagenesis: The key to understanding trap integrity and hydrocarbon charge history in Australia`s Timor Sea?

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, G.W.; Woods, E.P.; Lisk, M.; Fellows, M.

    1996-12-31

    In the Late Miocene, the effects of continental collision partially to completely breached many charged, Mesozoic traps in Australia`s Timor Sea. An integrated geophysical and geochemical study has shown that the biodegradation of hydrocarbons leaking from these Mesozoic traps produced hydrocarbon-related diagenetic zones or HRDZs within overlying, Eocene aquifer sands. These HRDZs, which are principally defined by zones of intense carbonate cementation, are seismically-resolvable, with both their size and velocity being directly related to the amount of hydrocarbons that have passed through the aquifer sands. Consequently, the integration of observations on the seismic, velocity and isotopic characteristics of the HRDZs, the nature of present-day hydrocarbon seepage (as defined by sniffer and ALF data), and geometric relationships between the reactivation (Miocene) and trap (Jurassic) fault geometries, can provide a powerful predictive tool for evaluating and ranking undrilled structures and prospects within the Timor Sea.

  17. Recent trends in cyclist fatalities in Australia.

    PubMed

    Boufous, Soufiane; Olivier, Jake

    2016-08-01

    The study examines trends in bicycling fatalities reported to the Australian police between 1991 and 2013. Trends were estimated using Poisson regression modelling. Overall, cycling fatalities decreased by 1.9% annually between 1991 and 2013. However, while deaths following multivehicle crashes decreased at a rate of 2.9% per annum (95% CI -4.0% to -1.8%), deaths from single vehicle crashes increased by 5.8% per annum (95% CI 4.1% to 7.5%). Over the study period, the average age of cyclists who died in single vehicle crashes (45.3 years, 95% CI 41.5 to 49.1) was significantly higher than cyclists who died in multivehicle crashes (36.2 years, 95% CI 34.7 to 37.7). The average age of deceased cyclists increased significantly for both types of crashes. The observed increase in single vehicle crashes need to be closely monitored in Australia and internationally. In-depth studies are needed to investigate the circumstances of fatal single bicycle crashes in order to develop appropriate countermeasures.

  18. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-01-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  19. Improving satellite rainfall accumulation using multiple microwave satellite soil moisture products is Australia

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Real-time satellite precipitation product is important input information for streamflow forecasting and for understanding hydrological cycles in ungauged basins. The inner basins of Australia are monitored by a very sparse gauge network and rainfall estimation in the regions does not capture the var...

  20. Access Granted: Modern Languages and Issues of Accessibility at University--A Case Study from Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Joshua; Caruso, Marinella

    2016-01-01

    Discussion about how to monitor and increase participation in languages study is gaining relevance in the UK, the US and Australia across various sectors, but particularly in higher education. In recent times levels of enrolment in modern languages at universities around the world have been described in terms of "crisis" or even…

  1. Examining the Evidence from TIMSS: Gender Differences in Year 8 Science Achievement in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomson, Sue

    2008-01-01

    Australia's continuing participation in international science studies such as TIMSS provides a useful lens through which to monitor achievement in science over time. Gender differences in science were not evident in the early years of TIMSS but appear to be growing. This article examines gender differences in science achievement in early secondary…

  2. A New Method to Predict the Epidemiology of Fungal Keratitis by Monitoring the Sales Distribution of Antifungal Eye Drops in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Ibrahim, Marlon Moraes; de Angelis, Rafael; Lima, Acacio Souza; Viana de Carvalho, Glauco Dreyer; Ibrahim, Fuad Moraes; Malki, Leonardo Tannus; de Paula Bichuete, Marina; de Paula Martins, Wellington; Rocha, Eduardo Melani

    2012-01-01

    Purpose Fungi are a major cause of keratitis, although few medications are licensed for their treatment. The aim of this study is to observe the variation in commercialisation of antifungal eye drops, and to predict the seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil. Methods Data from a retrospective study of antifungal eye drops sales from the only pharmaceutical ophthalmologic laboratory, authorized to dispense them in Brazil (Opthalmos) were gathered. These data were correlated with geographic and seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil between July 2002 and June 2008. Results A total of 26,087 antifungal eye drop units were sold, with a mean of 2.3 per patient. There was significant variation in antifungal sales during the year (p<0.01). A linear regression model displayed a significant association between reduced relative humidity and antifungal drug sales (R2 = 0.17,p<0.01). Conclusions Antifungal eye drops sales suggest that there is a seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis. A possible interpretation is that the third quarter of the year (a period when the climate is drier), when agricultural activity is more intense in Brazil, suggests a correlation with a higher incidence of fungal keratitis. A similar model could be applied to other diseases, that are managed with unique, or few, and monitorable medications to predict epidemiological aspects. PMID:22457787

  3. E-health in Australia and elsewhere: a comparison and lessons for the near future.

    PubMed

    Gajanayake, Randike; Sahama, Tony; Iannella, Renato

    2013-01-01

    Meticulous planning and preparation do not always guarantee that e-health programs unfold as predicted. e-health entails interdependent social interactions which are difficult to predict without past experience or reference to lessons learned. Judicious insight into past case studies and eventualities, therefore, is essential towards building a successful e-health solution. Australia's e-health program is at a crucial stage where appropriate policy considerations and operational changes are in order. In this paper, we present an initial exploration of prominent e-health initiatives of other countries to identify similarities, differences and to seek lessons towards making Australia's e-health initiative a better journey.

  4. Prediction of back-scatter radiations to a beam monitor chamber of medical linear accelerators by use of the digitized target-current-pulse analysis method.

    PubMed

    Suzuki, Yusuke; Hayashi, Naoki; Kato, Hideki; Fukuma, Hiroshi; Hirose, Yasujiro; Kawano, Makoto; Nishii, Yoshio; Nakamura, Masaru; Mukouyama, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    In small-field irradiation, the back-scattered radiation (BSR) affects the counts measured with a beam monitor chamber (BMC). In general, the effect of the BSR depends on the opened-jaw size. The effect is significantly large in small-field irradiation. Our purpose in this study was to predict the effect of BSR on LINAC output accurately with an improved target-current-pulse (TCP) technique. The pulse signals were measured with a system consisting of a personal computer and a digitizer. The pulse signals were analyzed with in-house software. The measured parameters were the number of pulses, the change in the waveform and the integrated signal values of the TCPs. The TCPs were measured for various field sizes with four linear accelerators. For comparison, Yu's method in which a universal counter was used was re-examined. The results showed that the variance of the measurements by the new method was reduced to approximately 1/10 of the variance by the previous method. There was no significant variation in the number of pulses due to a change in the field size in the Varian Clinac series. However, a change in the integrated signal value was observed. This tendency was different from the result of other investigations in the past. Our prediction method is able to define the cutoff voltage for the TCP acquired by digitizer. This functionality provides the capability of clearly classifying TCPs into signals and noise. In conclusion, our TCP analysis method can predict the effect of BSR on the BMC even for small-field irradiations.

  5. Favorable conditions noted for Australia shale oil

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-09-01

    After brief descriptions of the Rundle, Condor, and Stuart/Kerosene Creek oil shale projects in Queensland, the competitive advantages of oil shale development and the state and federal governments' attitudes towards an oil shale industry in Australia are discussed. It is concluded that Australia is the ideal country in which to start an oil shale industry.

  6. Unity in Diversity: Multicultural Education in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Barbara, Ed.; Harris, Joy, Ed.

    Papers presented at two institutes held in Australia to discuss multicultural education are presented. Topics discussed include demographic background of Australia, principles of Australian pluralism, problems and issues for teachers making decisions on curriculum, the educational experience of children of migrant origin, the objectives and…

  7. Australia's First Public Private Partnership School Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Peter

    2004-01-01

    The design and construction of nine schools has commenced in Australia using a Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) methodology. This is the first project in Australia where social infrastructure has been acquired in this way. The Australian project is being managed by the New South Wales (NSW) State Government through its Department of Education…

  8. Language Planning and Placenaming in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodges, Flavia

    2007-01-01

    Before colonisation Australia was fully named by its Indigenous population, but that complex network of naming was largely overlooked as Europeans introduced their own names for features and settlements. Each of Australia's states and territories now has a nomenclature authority, whose activities are coordinated through the Committee for…

  9. Imported case of poliomyelitis, Melbourne, Australia, 2007.

    PubMed

    Stewardson, Andrew J; Roberts, Jason A; Beckett, Carolyn L; Prime, Hayden T; Loh, Poh-Sien; Thorley, Bruce R; Daffy, John R

    2009-01-01

    Wild poliovirus-associated paralytic poliomyelitis has not been reported in Australia since 1977. We report type 1 wild poliovirus infection in a man who had traveled from Pakistan to Australia in 2007. Poliomyelitis should be considered for patients with acute flaccid paralysis or unexplained fever who have been to poliomyelitis-endemic countries.

  10. Serum immunoglobulin levels in Australia antigen positive and Australia antigen negative hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Peters, C. J.; Johnson, K. M.

    1972-01-01

    Ig levels were determined by radial immunodiffusion in uncomplicated cases of acute hepatitis with or without Australia antigenaemia. Initial sera from Australia antigen negative cases showed a striking elevation in IgM levels when compared to Australia antigen positive cases (6·5 versus 1·9 mg/ml). None of twenty-four Australia antigen positive cases exceeded 3 mg/ml IgM, and only 3/58 Australia antigen negative cases exhibited values below 3 mg/ml. Intial sera from Australia antigen positive and Australia antigen negative subjects did not differ in concentration of IgG, IgA, or IgD. Serial determinations of IgG revealed a transient fall in patients with Australia antigen positive hepatitis, and a rise in Australia antigen negative cases. Asymptomatic, Australia antigen positive, Guaymi Indian subjects were compared to matched Australia antigen negative controls from the same indigenous group and no differences in the concentration of IgG, IgM, IgA or IgD were found, although elevations of IgG and IgM were common in both groups. No evidence of abnormal proteins was found when sera were tested by cellulose acetate electrophoresis or by immunoelectrophoresis versus immunoglobulin-specific antisera. Ultracentrifugal analysis failed to detect `7S' IgM. PMID:4625396

  11. The remittances of migrant Tongan and Samoan nurses from Australia

    PubMed Central

    Connell, John; Brown, Richard PC

    2004-01-01

    Background Migration and remittances are of considerable importance in the small Pacific island states. There has been a significant migration of skilled health workers in recent decades to metropolitan fringe states, including Australia and New Zealand. This paper reports the findings of a re-analysis of survey of Samoan and Tongan migrants in Australia where the sample is split between nurse households and others. Methods The study analyzes the survey data with a view to comparing the remittance behaviour and determinants of remittances for nurses and other migrant households, using both descriptive, cross-tabulations and appropriate econometric methods. Results It is found that a significantly higher proportion of nurse households sent remittances home, and, on average remitted more. Remittances of nurse households did not decline significantly over time contrary to what has generally been predicted. This was in contrast to other migrant households in the sample, for whom remittances showed a sharp decline after 15 years absence. Remittances contribute much more to the income of migrant sending countries, than the cost of the additional human capital in nurse training. Conclusions Given the shortage of nurses in Australia and New Zealand, and therefore the high demand for immigrant nurses, investment by Pacific island governments and families in nurse training constitutes a rational use of economic resources. Policies encouraging investment in home countries may be more effective than policies directly discouraging brain drain in contributing to national development. PMID:15078577

  12. Sound symbolism in the languages of Australia.

    PubMed

    Haynie, Hannah; Bowern, Claire; Lapalombara, Hannah

    2014-01-01

    The notion that linguistic forms and meanings are related only by convention and not by any direct relationship between sounds and semantic concepts is a foundational principle of modern linguistics. Though the principle generally holds across the lexicon, systematic exceptions have been identified. These "sound symbolic" forms have been identified in lexical items and linguistic processes in many individual languages. This paper examines sound symbolism in the languages of Australia. We conduct a statistical investigation of the evidence for several common patterns of sound symbolism, using data from a sample of 120 languages. The patterns examined here include the association of meanings denoting "smallness" or "nearness" with front vowels or palatal consonants, and the association of meanings denoting "largeness" or "distance" with back vowels or velar consonants. Our results provide evidence for the expected associations of vowels and consonants with meanings of "smallness" and "proximity" in Australian languages. However, the patterns uncovered in this region are more complicated than predicted. Several sound-meaning relationships are only significant for segments in prominent positions in the word, and the prevailing mapping between vowel quality and magnitude meaning cannot be characterized by a simple link between gradients of magnitude and vowel F2, contrary to the claims of previous studies.

  13. Sound Symbolism in the Languages of Australia

    PubMed Central

    Haynie, Hannah; Bowern, Claire; LaPalombara, Hannah

    2014-01-01

    The notion that linguistic forms and meanings are related only by convention and not by any direct relationship between sounds and semantic concepts is a foundational principle of modern linguistics. Though the principle generally holds across the lexicon, systematic exceptions have been identified. These “sound symbolic” forms have been identified in lexical items and linguistic processes in many individual languages. This paper examines sound symbolism in the languages of Australia. We conduct a statistical investigation of the evidence for several common patterns of sound symbolism, using data from a sample of 120 languages. The patterns examined here include the association of meanings denoting “smallness” or “nearness” with front vowels or palatal consonants, and the association of meanings denoting “largeness” or “distance” with back vowels or velar consonants. Our results provide evidence for the expected associations of vowels and consonants with meanings of “smallness” and “proximity” in Australian languages. However, the patterns uncovered in this region are more complicated than predicted. Several sound-meaning relationships are only significant for segments in prominent positions in the word, and the prevailing mapping between vowel quality and magnitude meaning cannot be characterized by a simple link between gradients of magnitude and vowel F2, contrary to the claims of previous studies. PMID:24752356

  14. A Survey Study of Significent Achievements Accomplished By Snon-mainstreamt Seismologists In ¸ Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction Science In China Since 1970

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, I. W.

    10km depth comparative terres- trial stress survey measurement to identify earthquake focus zones in surveyed areas. Then, with an eight-direction abnormality monitoring instrument, and data processing with an effective network of instruments in China, active seismic areas and their main parameters can be intersected and calculated. (5) Impending earthquake prediction us- ing the characteristic dynamic changes of the satellite infrared impending earthquake 1 precursors. (6) Analysis and calculations of the power source of the global crustal movement. The paper summarizes the authorSs findings in these respects most that are still unknown to seismologists in the west. The above study enabled the author to con- tact and help some of these Snon-mainstreamT to contribute abstracts of their papers & cedil;to this NH10 session of EGS2002. Key Words: earthquake prediction, imminent earth- quake prediction, occurrence time, epicenter location, magnitude, precursors, sensors, instrument, astronomy-seismology, planet positions, magnetic storm. 2

  15. National space program in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brennan, G. M.

    1992-11-01

    An overview of the Australian space activity history and present status is presented in the following aspects: (1) full-scale space activities since the establishment of the Australian Space Board in 1987 and the start of governmental budgetary support to national space program; (2) cooperation with NASA and ESA through satellite ground stations in satellite communication and ground support; (3) Australian private enterprises contract to provide launch support for INTERSAT and other satellites and schedule to start mobile satellite communication all over the country; and (4) supporting the second ground station construction to facilitate acquisition of the southern Pacific Ocean data of the wide area covering from the end of Antarctic continent to the eastern end of New Zealand. The remote sensing equipment development, launch service business plan, present status of supersonic technology in Australia and Australian space policy are outlined.

  16. Skin cancer prevention in Australia.

    PubMed

    Sinclair, C; Foley, P

    2009-11-01

    Australia has one of the highest skin cancer incidence and mortality rates in the world. The reason for these high rates is due in part to the high ambient UV radiation levels, combined with a predominantly susceptible fair-skinned population. To address this problem, since 1980 Australians have been exposed to social marketing campaigns to raise awareness of skin cancer prevention. These campaigns have used mass media alongside interventions in schools, workplaces, and in community and leisure settings to motivate sun protective behaviour. As a result of these interventions it can be demonstrated that social marketing campaigns can be a very effective method to not only motivate behaviour change, reduce sunburn, and increase awareness but more importantly, reduce melanoma rates and bring positive economic returns to government. However long term investment in this area is required otherwise any population gains in behaviour are very likely to be quickly eroded.

  17. The abortion debate in Australia.

    PubMed

    Read, Christine Margaret

    2006-09-01

    I recently watched a fascinating documentary about the crusade of Dr Bertram Wainer in the 1960s to bring the practice of illegal abortion in Victoria to an end. It documented the profound horror of the backyard abortion that so often ended in infection, sterility or death, and served as a potent reminder of a practice to which we must never return. Of course that cant happen again, abortion is legal now, isnt it? In Victoria in 1969 a Supreme Court judge ruled that an abortion is not unlawful if a doctor believed that: the abortion is necessary to preserve the woman from serious danger to her life or physical or mental health (Menhennit ruling). In Australia today however, abortion law remains conditional, unclear and inconsistent and, except in the ACT, is still part of criminal statutes.

  18. Religion and BMI in Australia.

    PubMed

    Kortt, Michael A; Dollery, Brian

    2014-02-01

    We estimated the relationship between religion and body mass index (BMI) for a general and representative sample of the Australia population. Data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics survey were analysed for 9,408 adults aged 18 and older. OLS regression analyses revealed that religious denomination was significantly related to higher BMI, after controlling for socio-demographic, health behaviours, and psychosocial variables. 'Baptist' men had, on average, a 1.3 higher BMI compared to those reporting no religious affiliation. Among women, 'Non-Christians' had, on average, a 1 unit lower BMI compared to those reporting no religious affiliation while 'Other Christian' women reported, on average, a 1 unit higher BMI. Our results also indicate that there was a negative relationship between religious importance and BMI among Australian women.

  19. Ageing Holocaust survivors in Australia.

    PubMed

    Paratz, Elizabeth D; Katz, Benny

    2011-02-21

    In recent years, a phenomenon of "late effects of the Holocaust" has emerged, with impacts on the psychological and physical health of ageing Holocaust survivors. As Holocaust survivors age, they may experience heightened anxiety around normal processes of ageing, worsened post-traumatic stress disorder with cognitive decline, and fear of the medical system. Holocaust survivors are at increased risk of osteoporosis, cardiometabolic disease due to hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis dysfunction, cancer, and sequelae of Nazi medical experiments. From existing medical literature on this topic, practical principles of management are derived to create a framework for sensitive medical management of Holocaust survivors in Australia. The issues discussed are also relevant to the wider geriatric refugee or prisoner-of-war experience.

  20. Longitudinal monitoring of EGFR mutations in plasma predicts outcomes of NSCLC patients treated with EGFR TKIs: Korean Lung Cancer Consortium (KLCC-12-02).

    PubMed

    Lee, Ji Yun; Qing, Xu; Xiumin, Wei; Yali, Bai; Chi, Sangah; Bak, So Hyeon; Lee, Ho Yun; Sun, Jong-Mu; Lee, Se-Hoon; Ahn, Jin Seok; Cho, Eun Kyung; Kim, Dong-Wan; Kim, Hye Ryun; Min, Young Joo; Jung, Sin-Ho; Park, Keunchil; Mao, Mao; Ahn, Myung-Ju

    2016-02-09

    We hypothesized that plasma-based EGFR mutation analysis for NSCLC may be feasible for monitoring treatment response to EGFR TKIs and also predict drug resistance.Clinically relevant mutations including exon 19 deletion (ex19del), L858R and T790M were analyzed using droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) in longitudinally collected plasma samples (n = 367) from 81 NSCLC patients treated with EGFR TKI. Of a total 58 baseline cell-free DNA (cfDNA) samples available for ddPCR analysis, 43 (74.1%) had the same mutation in the matched tumors (clinical sensitivity: 70.8% [17/24] for L858R and 76.5% [26/34] for ex19del). The concordance rates of plasma with tissue-based results of EGFR mutations were 87.9% for L858R and 86.2% for ex19del. All 40 patients who were detected EGFR mutations at baseline showed a dramatic decrease of mutant copies (>50%) in plasma during the first two months after treatment. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 10.1 months for patients with undetectable EGFR v 6.3 months for detectable EGFR mutations in blood after two-month treatment (HR 3.88, 95% CI 1.48-10.19, P = 0.006). We observed emerging resistance with early detection of T790M as a secondary mutation in 14 (28.6%) of 49 patients. Plasma-based EGFR mutation analysis using ddPCR can monitor treatment response to EGFR TKIs and can lead to early detection of EGFR TKIs resistance. Further studies confirming clinical implications of EGFR mutation in plasma are warranted to guide optimal therapeutic strategies upon knowledge of treatment response and resistance.

  1. Under-coding in Australia limits the performance of DRG groupers.

    PubMed

    Reid, B; Palmer, G; Aisbett, C

    The Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) system is now used extensively in Australia to classify acute inpatients for many applications, including payments to hospitals. The quality of the inpatient separation data affects the performance of the DRG version, especially its predictive validity. Data from the State of Maryland, in the United States, contain more secondary diagnosis and procedure codes than Australian data. A comparison of the performance of DRG versions using data from Australia and Maryland allowed us to answer the following research question: What impact did these additional codes have on the performance of the DRGs? The best performance in predictive validity (R2) was obtained using the Maryland data no matter which DRG version was used. Casemix-adjusted code counts showed that more diagnoses were coded in Maryland. The most plausible reason for this was that conditions were not being recorded comprehensively by doctors in the medical record in Australia.

  2. Climatic evolution and control on carbonate deposition in northeast Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feary, David A.; Davies, Peter J.; Pigram, Christopher J.; Symonds, Philip A.

    1991-03-01

    The characteristics of carbonate facies deposited along continental margins are directly controlled by seawater temperature. The oxygen isotopic composition of foraminifera tests reflect seawater temperature, and accordingly isotopic and age data may be combined to derive a paleotemperature record. Paleotemperature data may be used both to account for the known distribution of carbonate facies, and also to predict facies characteristics in poorly known areas. Oxygen isotope data from Deep Sea Drilling Project holes throughout the southwest Pacific have been used to compile a paleotemperature curve for offshore northeast Australia. The accuracy of paleotemperature estimates used in this compilation is dependent on the precise estimation of global ice volumes; on the estimation of surface water isotopic ratios from near-surface planktonic foraminifera; on the accuracy of biological disequilibrium isotopic fractionation constants for benthonic foraminifera; and on the identification of recrystallization, encrustation, and selective dissolution of samples. Decreasing temperatures during much of the early Cenozoic portion of the northeast Australia paleotemperature curve reflect the global high-latitude cooling trend which persisted throughout the Tertiary following the earliest Eocence temperature maximum. Warning during the middle Oligocene to Recent part of the curve reflects northeast Australia's transition from a mid-latitude situation in a world with little climatic zonation, to a low latitude situation in a world with pronounced latitudinal temperature gradients. The carbonate buildups of northeast Australia directly reflect this climatic variation. Restricted warm temperate or subtropical buildups developed during the Eocene; carbonate buildups did not develop at all during the cool Oligocene; and subtropical buildups suceeded by tropical coral reefs first developed during the latest Oligocene or Early Miocene in the northernmost part of area, and later

  3. The Deep Ocean Sound Channel in Areas Around Australia,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-10-01

    Series, Southern Pacific Ocean. Tasman and Coral Seas , Australia to Northern New Zealand and Fiji, Int. 602 (Aus 4602)", with small corrections. 29...3780 1.46 34.71 7.90 1520.0 TABLE 7 PHYSICOCHEMICAL PROFILE OF A STATION IN THE TASMAN SEA , OFF TASMANIA, (JUNE 1975) Tasmanian Cruise Station D OP7507...0P7803 (Southern Indian Ocean), 0P7704 (Coral Sea ) and 0P7505 (Around Tasmania) have been used to determine the acoustical properties predicted for the

  4. Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

    PubMed

    Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication.

  5. Mesozoic/Cenozoic tectonic events around Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, R. Dietmar; Gaina, Carmen; Tikku, Anahita; Mihut, Dona; Cande, Steven C.; Stock, Joann M.

    We use an absolute and relative plate motion model for the plates around Australia to identify major plate tectonic events, evaluate their causes, and investigate their effects on anomalous intraplate subsidence or uplift and on the history of oceanic crustal accretion. An event at ˜136 Ma is marked by the onset of sea floor spreading between Greater India and Australia. At about this time long-lived subduction east of Australia ceased, probably due to subduction of the Phoenix-Pacific spreading ridge, changing this plate boundary to a transform margin. Between 130 and 80 Ma, Australia and East Antarctica moved eastward in the Atlantic-Indian mantle hotspot reference frame. This can be plausibly linked to ridge push from the NW-SE oriented spreading center NW of Australia and to the inferred geometry and continued subduction of the Phoenix plate beneath the West Antarctic margin. A drastic change in spreading direction between the Indian and Australian plates from NE-SW to N-S occurred at about 99 Ma, possibly caused by a change in absolute motion of the Pacific Plate. Chron 27 (˜61 Ma) marks the onset of relative motion between East and West Antarctica, and a change in the relative motion between Australia and Antarctica. It may be linked to the subduction of a segment of the Neo-Tethyan Ridge. Both events caused anomalous subsidence on the Northwest Shelf of Australia. The almost stationary position of Australia w.r.t. the mantle from ˜80 Ma to ˜40 Ma may reflect the progressive subduction of the Pacific-Phoenix ridge to the east of New Zealand preceding 80 Ma, resulting in a diminished trench suction force east of Australia. Preliminary reconstructions to close the Pacific-Australian plate circuit based on recently collected geophysical data indicate that a tectonic event at 43 Ma may mark the onset of renewed subduction east of Australia. At the same time spreading in the Wharton Basin between India and Australia ceased, and tectonic reactivation is

  6. Integrating trans-abdominal ultrasonography with fecal steroid metabolite monitoring to accurately diagnose pregnancy and predict the timing of parturition in the red panda (Ailurus fulgens styani).

    PubMed

    Curry, Erin; Browning, Lissa J; Reinhart, Paul; Roth, Terri L

    2017-02-23

    Red pandas (Ailurus fulgens styani) exhibit a variable gestation length and may experience a pseudopregnancy indistinguishable from true pregnancy; therefore, it is not possible to deduce an individual's true pregnancy status and parturition date based on breeding dates or fecal progesterone excretion patterns alone. The goal of this study was to evaluate the use of transabdominal ultrasonography for pregnancy diagnosis in red pandas. Two to three females were monitored over 4 consecutive years, generating a total of seven profiles (four pregnancies, two pseudopregnancies, and one lost pregnancy). Fecal samples were collected and assayed for progesterone (P4) and estrogen conjugate (EC) to characterize patterns associated with breeding activity and parturition events. Animals were trained for voluntary transabdominal ultrasound and examinations were performed weekly. Breeding behaviors and fecal EC data suggest that the estrus cycle of this species is 11-12 days in length. Fecal steroid metabolite analyses also revealed that neither P4 nor EC concentrations were suitable indicators of pregnancy in this species; however, a secondary increase in P4 occurred 69-71 days prior to parturition in all pregnant females, presumably coinciding with embryo implantation. Using ultrasonography, embryos were detected as early as 62 days post-breeding/50 days pre-partum and serial measurements of uterine lumen diameter were documented throughout four pregnancies. Advances in reproductive diagnostics, such as the implementation of ultrasonography, may facilitate improved husbandry of pregnant females and allow for the accurate prediction of parturition.

  7. Treatment Success in Trypanosoma cruzi Infection Is Predicted by Early Changes in Serially Monitored Parasite-Specific T and B Cell Responses

    PubMed Central

    Cooley, Gretchen; Albareda, María C.; Viotti, Rodolfo; Perez-Mazliah, Damián E.; Lococo, Bruno; Castro Eiro, Melisa; Laucella, Susana A.; Tarleton, Rick L.

    2016-01-01

    Background Chagas disease is the highest impact parasitic disease in Latin America. We have proposed that changes in Trypanosoma cruzi-specific immune responses might serve as surrogate indicators of treatment success. Herein, we addressed in a long-term follow-up study whether cure achieved after treatment can be predicted by changes in non-conventional indexes of anti-parasite serological and T cell activities. Methodology/Principal Findings T. cruzi-specific T cell responses, as measured by interferon-γ ELISPOT and T. cruzi-specific antibodies assessed by ELISA, hemagglutination and immunofluorescence tests as well as by a multiplex assay incorporating 14 recombinant T. cruzi proteins were measured in 33 patients at 48–150 months post-benznidazole treatment. Cure — as assessed by conventional serological tests — was associated with an early decline in T. cruzi-specific IFN-γ-producing T cells and in antibody titers measured by the multiplex serological assay. Changes in the functional status and potential of T. cruzi-specific T cells, indicative of reduced antigen stimulation, provided further evidence of parasitological cure following benznidazole treatment. Patients showing a significant reduction in T. cruzi-specific antibodies had higher pre-therapy levels of T. cruzi-specific IFN-γ- producing T cells compared to those with unaltered humoral responses post-treatment. Conclusions/Significance Monitoring of appropriate immunological responses can provide earlier and robust measures of treatment success in T. cruzi infection. PMID:27128444

  8. The significance of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio as a marker for predicting survival and monitoring chemotherapeutic effectiveness in patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Shibutani, Masatsune; Maeda, Kiyoshi; Nagahara, Hisashi; Iseki, Yasuhito; Hirakawa, Kosei; Ohira, Masaichi

    2016-01-01

    Inflammation has been reported to play an important role in cancer progression and various inflammatory markers have been reported to be useful prognostic markers. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the significance of the C-reactive protein to albumin (CRP/ALB) ratio in colorectal cancer patients who received palliative chemotherapy. We performed a retrospective review of 99 patients who underwent palliative chemotherapy for unresectable colorectal cancer between 2005 and 2010. The cutoff value of the CRP/ALB ratio was determined based on a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis. The relationship between the CRP/ALB ratio and survival was assessed. The cutoff value for the CRP/ALB ratio was 0.183. The high pretreatment CRP/ALB ratio group showed significantly worse overall survival. Patients with a high pretreatment CRP/ALB ratio and in whom the CRP/ALB ratio normalized after chemotherapy tended to have better overall survival than those in whom both the pretreatment and posttreatment CRP/ALB ratios were high. The CRP/ALB ratio is a useful marker for predicting survival and monitoring chemotherapeutic effectiveness in patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer.

  9. An Assessment of Policies Guiding School Emergency Disaster Management for Students with Disabilities in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Helen Joanna; Pagliano, Paul; Brown, Lawrence; Tsey, Komla

    2012-01-01

    Recent weather-related disasters (i.e., floods, fires) impacting Australia may potentially increase in frequency and severity as a result of predicted climate variability. The dearth of literature pertaining to school emergency response planning for vulnerable students with disabilities (including those with intellectual disabilities) when such…

  10. Coral reproduction in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Gilmour, James; Speed, Conrad W; Babcock, Russ

    2016-01-01

    Larval production and recruitment underpin the maintenance of coral populations, but these early life history stages are vulnerable to extreme variation in physical conditions. Environmental managers aim to minimise human impacts during significant periods of larval production and recruitment on reefs, but doing so requires knowledge of the modes and timing of coral reproduction. Most corals are hermaphroditic or gonochoric, with a brooding or broadcast spawning mode of reproduction. Brooding corals are a significant component of some reefs and produce larvae over consecutive months. Broadcast spawning corals are more common and display considerable variation in their patterns of spawning among reefs. Highly synchronous spawning can occur on reefs around Australia, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef. On Australia's remote north-west coast there have been fewer studies of coral reproduction. The recent industrial expansion into these regions has facilitated research, but the associated data are often contained within confidential reports. Here we combine information in this grey-literature with that available publicly to update our knowledge of coral reproduction in WA, for tens of thousands of corals and hundreds of species from over a dozen reefs spanning 20° of latitude. We identified broad patterns in coral reproduction, but more detailed insights were hindered by biased sampling; most studies focused on species of Acropora sampled over a few months at several reefs. Within the existing data, there was a latitudinal gradient in spawning activity among seasons, with mass spawning during autumn occurring on all reefs (but the temperate south-west). Participation in a smaller, multi-specific spawning during spring decreased from approximately one quarter of corals on the Kimberley Oceanic reefs to little participation at Ningaloo. Within these seasons, spawning was concentrated in March and/or April, and October and/or November, depending on the timing of the

  11. Japanese consumer categorisation of beef into quality grades, based on Meat Standards Australia methodology.

    PubMed

    Polkinghorne, Rod J; Nishimura, Takanori; Neath, Kate E; Watson, Ray

    2011-04-01

    The objective was to evaluate the sensory categorisation of beef by Japanese consumers, based on Meat Standards Australia methodology. Various cuts of beef, with a wide range of quality (from Australian and Japanese cattle) and three cooking methods (grill, yakiniku, shabu shabu), were evaluated by 1620 Japanese consumers in Tokyo and Osaka. Consumers rated each sample for four sensory attributes (tenderness, juiciness, flavor and overall satisfaction), then selected one of four grades (unsatisfactory/2-star, good everyday/3-star, better than everyday/4-star, and premium quality/5-star), based on the quality of the beef within each cooking method. Meat quality scores, denoted as MQ4 scores (weighted combination of the four sensory attributes) were calculated from the Japanese consumer test results, to describe the Japanese consumer rating of beef. The distribution of the Japanese consumer MQ4 scores showed a clear distinction between grades, with the majority of scores being included within the boundaries of each grade. The MQ4 score allocated approximately 64% of the samples to their correct consumer grades. The MQ4 score showed potential to be used as a tool in developing and monitoring a consumer-focused grading system that is able to predict Japanese consumer satisfaction of individual beef cuts prepared by different cooking methods.

  12. What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; England, Matthew H.; McIntosh, Peter C.; Meyers, Gary A.; Pook, Michael J.; Risbey, James S.; Gupta, Alexander Sen; Taschetto, Andréa S.

    2009-02-01

    Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living memory, the so-called ``Big Dry''. The ramifications for affected regions are dire, with acute water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying-out of two of Australia's major river systems and far-reaching ecosystem damage. Yet the drought's origins have remained elusive. For Southeast Australia, we show here that the ``Big Dry'' and other iconic 20th Century droughts, including the Federation Drought (1895-1902) and World War II drought (1937-1945), are driven by Indian Ocean variability, not Pacific Ocean conditions as traditionally assumed. Specifically, a conspicuous absence of Indian Ocean temperature conditions conducive to enhanced tropical moisture transport has deprived southeastern Australia of its normal rainfall quota. In the case of the ``Big Dry'', its unprecedented intensity is also related to recent higher temperatures.

  13. Total Solar Eclipse Australia - Nov. 13, 2012

    NASA Video Gallery

    On Nov. 13, 2012, a narrow corridor in the southern hemisphere experienced a total solar eclipse. The corridor lay mostly over the ocean but also cut across the northern tip of Australia where both...

  14. Salt reduction in Australia: from advocacy to action

    PubMed Central

    Trieu, Kathy; Dunford, Elizabeth; Nowson, Caryl; Jolly, Kellie-Ann; Greenland, Rohan; Reimers, Jenny; Bolam, Bruce

    2015-01-01

    , both are voluntary and the extent of industry uptake is not yet clear. There is also no parallel public awareness campaign to try and influence consumer behaviour relating to salt and no agreed mechanism for monitoring national changes in salt intake. The Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth) has recently instigated a State-level partnership to advance action and will launch its strategy in 2015. Conclusions In conclusion, salt reduction activities are currently being implemented through a variety of different programs but additional efforts and more robust national monitoring mechanisms are required to ensure that Australia is on track to achieve the proposed 30% reduction in salt intake within the next decade. PMID:26090332

  15. Evolution and phylogeography of the nonpathogenic calicivirus RCV-A1 in wild rabbits in Australia.

    PubMed

    Jahnke, Marlene; Holmes, Edward C; Kerr, Peter J; Wright, John D; Strive, Tanja

    2010-12-01

    Despite its potential importance for the biological control of European rabbits, relatively little is known about the evolution and molecular epidemiology of rabbit calicivirus Australia 1 (RCV-A1). To address this issue we undertook an extensive evolutionary analysis of 36 RCV-A1 samples collected from wild rabbit populations in southeast Australia between 2007 and 2009. Based on phylogenetic analysis of the entire capsid sequence, six clades of RCV-A1 were defined, each exhibiting strong population subdivision. Strikingly, our estimates of the time to the most recent common ancestor of RCV-A1 coincide with the introduction of rabbits to Australia in the mid-19th century. Subsequent divergence events visible in the RCV-A1 phylogenies likely reflect key moments in the history of the European rabbit in Australia, most notably the bottlenecks in rabbit populations induced by the two viral biocontrol agents used on the Australian continent, myxoma virus and rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV). RCV-A1 strains therefore exhibit strong phylogeographic separation and may constitute a useful tool to study recent host population dynamics and migration patterns, which in turn could be used to monitor rabbit control in Australia.

  16. The Efficacy of Intraoperative Neurophysiological Monitoring Using Transcranial Electrically Stimulated Muscle-evoked Potentials (TcE-MsEPs) for Predicting Postoperative Segmental Upper Extremity Motor Paresis After Cervical Laminoplasty

    PubMed Central

    Manabe, Hideki; Izumi, Bunichiro; Tanaka, Hiroyuki; Kawai, Kazumi; Tanaka, Nobuhiro

    2016-01-01

    Study Design: Prospective study. Objective: To investigate the efficacy of transcranial electrically stimulated muscle-evoked potentials (TcE-MsEPs) for predicting postoperative segmental upper extremity palsy following cervical laminoplasty. Summary of Background Data: Postoperative segmental upper extremity palsy, especially in the deltoid and biceps (so-called C5 palsy), is the most common complication following cervical laminoplasty. Some papers have reported that postoperative C5 palsy cannot be predicted by TcE-MsEPs, although others have reported that it can be predicted. Methods: This study included 160 consecutive cases that underwent open-door laminoplasty, and TcE-MsEP monitoring was performed in the biceps brachii, triceps brachii, abductor digiti minimi, tibialis anterior, and abductor hallucis. A >50% decrease in the wave amplitude was defined as an alarm point. According to the monitoring alarm, interventions were performed, which include steroid administration, foraminotomies, etc. Results: Postoperative deltoid and biceps palsy occurred in 5 cases. Among the 155 cases without segmental upper extremity palsy, there were no monitoring alarms. Among the 5 deltoid and biceps palsy cases, 3 had significant wave amplitude decreases in the biceps during surgery, and palsy occurred when the patients awoke from anesthesia (acute type). In the other 2 cases in which the palsy occurred 2 days after the operation (delayed type), there were no significant wave decreases. In all of the cases, the palsy was completely resolved within 6 months. Discussion: The majority of C5 palsies have been reported to occur several days after surgery, but some of them have been reported to occur immediately after surgery. Our results demonstrated that TcE-MsEPs can predict the acute type, whereas the delayed type cannot be predicted. Conclusions: A >50% wave amplitude decrease in the biceps is useful to predict acute-type segmental upper extremity palsy. Further examination

  17. Data Quality Monitoring in Clinical Trials: Has It Been Worth It? An Evaluation and Prediction of the Future by All Stakeholders.

    PubMed

    Daniel, David; Kalali, Amir; West, Mark; Walling, David; Hilt, Dana; Engelhardt, Nina; Alphs, Larry; Loebel, Antony; Vanover, Kim; Atkinson, Sarah; Opler, Mark; Sachs, Gary; Nations, Kari; Brady, Chris

    2016-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of the CNS Summit Data Quality Monitoring Workgroup analysis of current data quality monitoring techniques used in central nervous system (CNS) clinical trials. Based on audience polls conducted at the CNS Summit 2014, the panel determined that current techniques used to monitor data and quality in clinical trials are broad, uncontrolled, and lack independent verification. The majority of those polled endorse the value of monitoring data. Case examples of current data quality methodology are presented and discussed. Perspectives of pharmaceutical companies and trial sites regarding data quality monitoring are presented. Potential future developments in CNS data quality monitoring are described. Increased utilization of biomarkers as objective outcomes and for patient selection is considered to be the most impactful development in data quality monitoring over the next 10 years. Additional future outcome measures and patient selection approaches are discussed.

  18. Data Quality Monitoring in Clinical Trials: Has It Been Worth It? An Evaluation and Prediction of the Future by All Stakeholders

    PubMed Central

    Kalali, Amir; West, Mark; Walling, David; Hilt, Dana; Engelhardt, Nina; Alphs, Larry; Loebel, Antony; Vanover, Kim; Atkinson, Sarah; Opler, Mark; Sachs, Gary; Nations, Kari; Brady, Chris

    2016-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of the CNS Summit Data Quality Monitoring Workgroup analysis of current data quality monitoring techniques used in central nervous system (CNS) clinical trials. Based on audience polls conducted at the CNS Summit 2014, the panel determined that current techniques used to monitor data and quality in clinical trials are broad, uncontrolled, and lack independent verification. The majority of those polled endorse the value of monitoring data. Case examples of current data quality methodology are presented and discussed. Perspectives of pharmaceutical companies and trial sites regarding data quality monitoring are presented. Potential future developments in CNS data quality monitoring are described. Increased utilization of biomarkers as objective outcomes and for patient selection is considered to be the most impactful development in data quality monitoring over the next 10 years. Additional future outcome measures and patient selection approaches are discussed. PMID:27413584

  19. Immigration in two federations: Canada and Australia.

    PubMed

    Atchison, J

    1988-03-01

    The need for increasingly widespread application of a policy or program, settlement, and multiculturalism is urgent in both Canada and Australia. For both countries there is a clear pattern of coalescence and divergence and the distinct growth of immigration as a federal function. While Australia has strengthened federal functions in a area of increasingly geo-political need, Canada is moving towards a looser model of federalism. By 1918 both countries were strengthening their federal functions in immigration as discussions within the British Empire on the recommendations of the 1917 Dominions Royal Commission took root. Both countries were interested in agricultural immigration and land settlement. The Great Depression caused a major reduction in population growth rates. From 1933-1948 Canada had a poor record of providing sanctuary for Jews. In Australia, however, Jewish voluntary agencies were aiding the reception of refugees by 1937. The 1st permanent embodiment of commonwealth jurisdiction over immigration was the establishment of an Immigration Branch within the Department of Interior around 1938. Australia needed extra population for defense. The major structural link between government and the immigrant communities was through the Good Neighbor Movement, which began on a nationwide basis in 1950. Both Canada and Australia are major receiving countries for refugees. In 1973 Australia reached the position of effective, practical nondiscrimination achieved by Canada in 1967. Prime Minister Trudeau's policy was multiculturalism within a framework of bilingualism. By 1978 Australia had a new federalism policy, which in all areas concerned with immigrants, refugees and ethnicity, rationalized resources allocation and imposed a political philosophy. The foci of multiculturalism in Australia are 1) community languages; 2) creation of a tolerant, non-discriminatory society; and 3) equity and participation. In 1978 Australia specified population replacement and

  20. Serum KL-6 and surfactant protein-D as monitoring and predictive markers of interstitial lung disease in patients with systemic sclerosis and mixed connective tissue disease

    PubMed Central

    Hagiwara, Eri; Kitamura, Hideya; Yamanaka, Yumie; Ikeda, Satoshi; Sekine, Akimasa; Baba, Tomohisa; Okudela, Koji; Iwasawa, Tae; Takemura, Tamiko; Kuwano, Kazuyoshi; Ogura, Takashi

    2017-01-01

    Background Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is frequent complication of systemic sclerosis (SSc) and mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD). The disease is heterogeneous, and its outcome is unpredictable. Some patients have severe and progressive deterioration of ILD, which is the leading cause of mortality. We aimed to determine whether serum levels of Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6) and surfactant protein-D (SP-D) correlate with SSc/MCTD-associated ILD activity. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 40 patients with SSc/MCTD-associated ILD: 29 patients with SSc and 11 patients with MCTD. Measurement of serum KL-6 and SP-D levels, pulmonary function tests, and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) performed in parallel were reviewed. Results Serum KL-6 correlated positively with diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) (% predicted) and disease extent on HRCT, and the changes in serum levels of KL-6 were significantly related to the changes in forced vital capacity (FVC) in SSc/MCTD-associated ILD. On the other hand, multivariate logistic regression analyses with calculation of the area under the curve of the receiver-operating characteristic curve suggested that a higher serum level of SP-D was a significant predictor of FVC decline in SSc/MCTD-associated ILD. Conclusions Our study suggests that serum KL-6 can be a useful monitoring tool of SSc/MCTD-associated ILD activity. In contrast, serum SP-D may be a significant predictor of potential FVC decline in the short term. PMID:28275485

  1. Depressed Exercise Peak Ejection Rate Detected on Ambulatory Radionuclide Monitoring Reflects End-Stage Cardiac Inotropic Reserve and Predicts Mortality in Ischaemic Cardiomyopathy

    PubMed Central

    Carboni, Gian Piero

    2012-01-01

    Background Fifteen patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy and inducible ischaemia were studied to determine the mechanisms of mortality. Failure of the contractile reserve during daily life activities may reflect a prognostic index. Methods Single photon emission cardiac tomography and radionuclide ambulatory monitoring (Vest) data were analysed in all patients with a 7-year follow-up. Results At peak exercise on Vest, the 7 non-survivors (N-SURV) showed worse peak ejection rates (PERs) and ejection fractions (EFs) compared with the 8 survivors (SURV), (2 ± 0.6 vs. 3.3 ± 0.7; end-diastolic volumes (EDVs), P < 0.003), and (34 ± 10% vs. 50 ± 13%; P < 0.02), respectively. However, exercise peak filling rates (PFRs) (1.9 ± 0.6 vs. 2.7 ± 0.9; EDVs/s) and exercise heart rates (HRs), (97 ± 17 vs. 106 ± 10), did not differ between the two groups (P > 0.05). In SURV, exercise PERs, which represented rapid left ventricular (LV) emptying, were significantly correlated with exercise PFRs, representing rapid LV filling, (r = 0.71, P < 0.04) but not in N-SURV (r = 0.66, P > 0.05). Among SURV, the Frank-Starling mechanism was thus preserved but not in N-SURV. Upon Cox analysis, overall LV function parameters, exercise PER was the only predictive measure associated with mortality (b = - 0.018, relative hazard ratio = 0.98, P = 0.02). Conclusions Exercise PER reduced values reflected failure of the Frank-Starling mechanism, the incapacity of the heart to perform rapid contractile adaptations to daily life activities and a poor prognosis.

  2. Triclosan in individual human milk samples from Australia.

    PubMed

    Toms, Leisa-Maree L; Allmyr, Mats; Mueller, Jochen F; Adolfsson-Erici, Margaretha; McLachlan, Michael; Murby, John; Harden, Fiona A

    2011-12-01

    Triclosan is a chlorinated phenol ether that has been in widespread use as a broad-spectrum antibacterial agent for four decades. When compared to the limited international data available on human body burden of triclosan, results from a pooled blood study suggested that triclosan concentrations in Australia were a factor two higher than observed in Sweden. This study determined triclosan levels in individual human milk samples (n=151) collected between 2002 and 2005 from primiparous Australian mothers. It provided the first report of population triclosan levels and individual variation in Australia and gave a measure of infant exposure via breast feeding. The distribution of triclosan concentration was positively skewed, with 7.2% of the samples below the LOQ, 66% with a concentration of less than or equal to 1.0 ng g(-1)fresh weight and the remaining samples above 1 ng g(-1) reaching a maximum concentration of 19 ng g(-1)fresh weight. The mean and median triclosan concentrations were 1.3±2.7 ng g(-1)f.w. and 0.26 ng g(-1)f.w., respectively. The results of this study showed high variability in triclosan concentrations between individuals and no correlations with maternal age (p=0.094), maternal weight (p=0.971) or infant age at the time of sample collection (p=0.621). A large number of samples contained low or non-quantifiable concentrations of triclosan and so, in Australia, ubiquitous background exposure due to environmental sources is low. This means that body burden can be influenced by an individual's use of triclosan containing product. Given that triclosan containing product use is continuing, it is important that monitoring in both humans and the environment is continued and that triclosan containing products are adequately labeled so that an individual can choose to avoid exposure.

  3. Measles surveillance in Victoria, Australia.

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yung-Hsuan J.; Andrews, Ross M.; Lambert, Stephen B.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Many countries are implementing measles elimination strategies. In Australia, the State of Victoria has conducted enhanced measles surveillance since 1997 using case interviews and home-based specimen collection for laboratory confirmation. We attempted to identify features of notified cases that would better target surveillance resources. METHODS: We retrospectively classified notifications received from 1998 to 2003 as having been received in an epidemic (one or more laboratory-confirmed cases) or an interepidemic period (no laboratory-confirmed cases). We labelled the first case notified in any epidemic period that was not laboratory-confirmed at the time of notification as a "sentinel case". To maximize detection of sentinel cases while minimizing the follow-up of eventually discarded notifications, we generated algorithms using sentinel cases and interepidemic notifications. FINDINGS: We identified 10 sentinel cases with 422 interepidemic notifications from 1281 Victorian notifications. Sentinel cases were more likely to report fever at rash onset (odds ratio (OR) 15.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) CI: 2.1-688.9), cough (OR 10.4, 95% CI: 1.4-456.7), conjunctivitis (OR 7.9, 95% CI: 1.8-39.1), or year of birth between 1968 and 1981 (OR 31.8, 95% CI: 6.7-162.3). Prospective application of an algorithm consisting of fever at rash onset or born between 1968 and 1981 in the review period would have detected all sentinel cases and avoided the need for enhanced follow-up of 162 of the 422 eventually discarded notifications. CONCLUSION: Elimination strategies should be refined to suit regional and local priorities. The prospective application of an algorithm in Victoria is likely to reduce enhanced measles surveillance resource use in interepidemic periods, while still detecting early cases during measles outbreaks. PMID:16501727

  4. Unlocking Australia's Language Potential. Profiles of 9 Key Languages in Australia. Volume 7: Japanese.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marriott, Helen; And Others

    The report on the status of Japanese language teaching in Australia gives a broad view of Japanese study and discusses current educational issues in some detail. An introductory chapter offers a brief overview of the history, objectives, and issues of Japanese language instruction in Australia. The second chapter details features of instructional…

  5. ESO and Australia to Discuss Future Collaboration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1996-01-01

    For some time, the astronomical community in Australia has expressed interest in closer ties to ESO. One of the main reasons is the construction of the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT), of which the first 8.2 m unit telescope is scheduled for completion less than 2 years from now. The science of astronomy and astrophysics is highly developed in Australia and researchers in this country already have access to several excellent observational facilities, notably the 3.9 m optical telescope at the Siding Spring Observatory, the 64 m Parkes radio telescope and the Australia Telescope, one of the largest radio interferometric instruments in the world. On this important background, it is understandable that there is now an expressed desire among Australian scientists to participate in the VLT project and thus to partake in the front-line science and technology at the world's largest optical telescope. The related moves have been channelled through the Australian National Committee for Astronomy and the first formal contacts between Australia and ESO were made 1/2 year ago, cf. ESO Press Release 07/95 of 8 June 1995. ESO has welcomed the prospects of a closer, future collaboration with Australia, in particular because of the acknowledged expertise in that country within the important field of optical interferometry, a main feature of the VLT project. The Australian Government recently announced a new master plan 'Innovate Australia' which aims at updating and further development of science and technology in this country. It incorporates important support towards the modernization of the Australia Telescope, and certain funds are also foreseen for participation in international projects within the field of astronomy and astrophysics. At the request of the Australian Government, a high-ranking Australian delegation will visit the ESO Headquarters in Garching (Germany) in order to explore with ESO in some detail possible modes of future collaboration. This visit will take place

  6. MaxEnt analysis of a water distribution network in Canberra, ACT, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waldrip, Steven H.; Niven, Robert K.; Abel, Markus; Schlegel, Michael; Noack, Bernd R.

    2015-01-01

    A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method is developed to infer the state of a pipe flow network, for situations in which there is insufficient information to form a closed equation set. This approach substantially extends existing deterministic methods for the analysis of engineered flow networks (e.g. Newton's method or the Hardy Cross scheme). The network is represented as an undirected graph structure, in which the uncertainty is represented by a continuous relative entropy on the space of internal and external flow rates. The head losses (potential differences) on the network are treated as dependent variables, using specified pipe-flow resistance functions. The entropy is maximised subject to "observable" constraints on the mean values of certain flow rates and/or potential differences, and also "physical" constraints arising from the frictional properties of each pipe and from Kirchhoff's nodal and loop laws. A numerical method is developed in Matlab for solution of the integral equation system, based on multidimensional quadrature. Several nonlinear resistance functions (e.g. power-law and Colebrook) are investigated, necessitating numerical solution of the implicit Lagrangian by a double iteration scheme. The method is applied to a 1123-node, 1140-pipe water distribution network for the suburb of Torrens in the Australian Capital Territory, Australia, using network data supplied by water authority ACTEW Corporation Limited. A number of different assumptions are explored, including various network geometric representations, prior probabilities and constraint settings, yielding useful predictions of network demand and performance. We also propose this methodology be used in conjunction with in-flow monitoring systems, to obtain better inferences of user consumption without large investments in monitoring equipment and maintenance.

  7. Towards Automated Seismic Moment Tensor Inversion in Australia Using 3D Structural Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hingee, M.; Tkalcic, H.; Fichtner, A.; Sambridge, M.; Kennett, B. L.; Gorbatov, A.

    2009-12-01

    There is significant seismic activity in the region around Australia, largely due to the plate boundaries to the north and to the east of the mainland. This seismicity poses serious seismic and tsunamigenic hazard in a wider region, and risk to coastal areas of Australia, and is monitored by Geoscience Australia (GA) using a network of permanent broadband seismometers within Australia. Earthquake and tsunami warning systems were established by the Australian Government and have been using the waveforms from the GA seismological network. The permanent instruments are augmented by non-GA seismic stations based both within and outside of Australia. In particular, seismic moment tensor (MT) solutions for events around Australia as well as local distances are useful for both warning systems and geophysical studies in general. These monitoring systems, however, currently use only one dimensional, spherically-symmetric models of the Earth for source parameter determination. Recently, a novel 3D model of Australia and the surrounding area has been developed from spectral element simulations [1], taking into account not only velocity heterogeneities, but also radial anisotropy and seismic attenuation. This development, inter alia, introduces the potential of providing significant improvements in MT solution accuracy. Allowing reliable MT solutions with reduced dependence on non-GA stations is a secondary advantage. We studied the feasibility of using 1D versus 3D structural models. The accuracy of the 3D model has been investigated, confirming that these models are in most cases superior to the 1D models. A full MT inversion method using a point source approximation was developed as the first step, keeping in mind that for more complex source time functions, a finite source inversion will be needed. Synthetic experiments have been performed with random noise added to the signal to test the code in the both 1D and 3D setting, using a precomputed library of structural Greens

  8. The Newcastle (Australia) Airshed Management Action Plan (NAMAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Bridgman, H.A.; Cameron, C.

    1999-07-01

    The Newcastle (NSW Australia) Airshed Management Action Plan (NAMAP) has recently been completed, and is a forerunner toward urban air pollution management in Australia. NAMAP was developed by the Newcastle City Council in partnership with the community, science, and industry, as part of Council's commitments in it's environmental plan. Its purpose is to provide action strategies which will lead to improvements in Newcastle's air quality for future generations. Key issues addressed in the plan include: minimizing industrial emissions; reducing growth of vehicle kilometers traveled; improving energy efficiency; managing air quality from small and medium enterprises; reducing the impacts of solid fuel burning; improving management from councils own activities; making motor vehicle run clean; reviewing performance; and developing better solutions. Management strategies include community education, land use planning, regulation, economic incentives, monitoring, performance indicators and reporting. This paper describes the structure and development of NAMAP through stages from understanding the air pollution problem to recommending of action strategies for reduction and control. The development and implementation of NAMAP is particularly important as major changes in Newcastle's heavy industrial base will occur in the future, creating a restructuring in the relative importance of sources and primary emissions. NAMAP provides an excellent example of a cooperative effort to minimize air pollution problems in a small city.

  9. Coarse particulate matter emissions from cattle feedlots in Australia.

    PubMed

    McGinn, S M; Flesch, T K; Chen, D; Crenna, B; Denmead, O T; Naylor, T; Rowell, D

    2010-01-01

    Open cattle feedlots are a source of air pollutants that include particular matter (PM). Over 24 h, exposure to ambient concentrations of 50 microg m(-3) of the coarse-sized fraction PM (aerodynamic diameter <10 microm [PM(10)]) is recognized as a health concern for humans. The objective of our study was to document PM(10) concentration and emissions at two cattle feedlots in Australia over several days in summer. Two automated samplers were used to monitor the background and in-feedlot PM(10) concentrations. At the in-feedlot location, the PM(10) emission was calculated using a dispersion model. Our measurements revealed that the 24-h PM(10) concentrations on some of the days approached or exceeded the health criteria threshold of 50 microg m(-3) used in Australia. A key factor responsible for the generation of PM(10) was the increased activity of cattle in the evening that coincided with peak concentrations of PM(10) (maximum, 792 microg m(-3)) between 1930 and 2000 h. Rain coincided with a severe decline in PM(10) concentration and emission. A dispersion model used in our study estimated the emission of PM(10) between 31 and 60 g animal(-1) d(-1). These data contribute to needed information on PM(10) associated with livestock to develop results-based environmental policy.

  10. Does Lyme disease exist in Australia?

    PubMed

    Collignon, Peter J; Lum, Gary D; Robson, Jennifer Mb

    2016-11-07

    There is no convincing evidence that classic Lyme disease occurs in Australia, nor is there evidence that the causative agent, Borrelia burgdorferi, is found in Australian animals or ticks. Lyme disease, however, can be acquired overseas but diagnosed in Australia; most people presenting with laboratory-confirmed Lyme disease in Australia were infected in Europe. Despite the lack of evidence that Lyme disease can be acquired in Australia, growing numbers of patients, their supporters, and some politicians demand diagnoses and treatment according to the protocols of the "chronic Lyme disease" school of thought. Antibiotic therapy for chronic "Lyme disease-like illness" can cause harm to both the individual (eg, cannula-related intravenous sepsis) and the broader community (increased antimicrobial resistance rates). Until there is strong evidence from well performed clinical studies that bacteria present in Australia cause a chronic debilitating illness that responds to prolonged antibiotics, treating patients with "Lyme disease-like illness" with prolonged antibiotic therapy is unjustified, and is likely to do much more harm than good.

  11. Coral reproduction in Western Australia

    PubMed Central

    Speed, Conrad W.; Babcock, Russ

    2016-01-01

    Larval production and recruitment underpin the maintenance of coral populations, but these early life history stages are vulnerable to extreme variation in physical conditions. Environmental managers aim to minimise human impacts during significant periods of larval production and recruitment on reefs, but doing so requires knowledge of the modes and timing of coral reproduction. Most corals are hermaphroditic or gonochoric, with a brooding or broadcast spawning mode of reproduction. Brooding corals are a significant component of some reefs and produce larvae over consecutive months. Broadcast spawning corals are more common and display considerable variation in their patterns of spawning among reefs. Highly synchronous spawning can occur on reefs around Australia, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef. On Australia’s remote north-west coast there have been fewer studies of coral reproduction. The recent industrial expansion into these regions has facilitated research, but the associated data are often contained within confidential reports. Here we combine information in this grey-literature with that available publicly to update our knowledge of coral reproduction in WA, for tens of thousands of corals and hundreds of species from over a dozen reefs spanning 20° of latitude. We identified broad patterns in coral reproduction, but more detailed insights were hindered by biased sampling; most studies focused on species of Acropora sampled over a few months at several reefs. Within the existing data, there was a latitudinal gradient in spawning activity among seasons, with mass spawning during autumn occurring on all reefs (but the temperate south-west). Participation in a smaller, multi-specific spawning during spring decreased from approximately one quarter of corals on the Kimberley Oceanic reefs to little participation at Ningaloo. Within these seasons, spawning was concentrated in March and/or April, and October and/or November, depending on the timing of

  12. Monitoring microstructural evolution of alloy 617 with non-linear acoustics for remaining useful life prediction; multiaxial creep-fatigue and creep-ratcheting

    SciTech Connect

    Lissenden, Cliff; Hassan, Tasnin; Rangari, Vijaya

    2014-10-30

    The research built upon a prior investigation to develop a unified constitutive model for design-­by-­analysis of the intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) for a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) design of next generation nuclear plants (NGNPs). Model development requires a set of failure data from complex mechanical experiments to characterize the material behavior. Therefore uniaxial and multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting tests were conducted on the nickel-­base Alloy 617 at 850 and 950°C. The time dependence of material behavior, and the interaction of time dependent behavior (e.g., creep) with ratcheting, which is an increase in the cyclic mean strain under load-­controlled cycling, are major concerns for NGNP design. This research project aimed at characterizing the microstructure evolution mechanisms activated in Alloy 617 by mechanical loading and dwell times at elevated temperature. The acoustic harmonic generation method was researched for microstructural characterization. It is a nonlinear acoustics method with excellent potential for nondestructive evaluation, and even online continuous monitoring once high temperature sensors become available. It is unique because it has the ability to quantitatively characterize microstructural features well before macroscale defects (e.g., cracks) form. The nonlinear acoustics beta parameter was shown to correlate with microstructural evolution using a systematic approach to handle the complexity of multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting deformation. Mechanical testing was conducted to provide a full spectrum of data for: thermal aging, tensile creep, uniaxial fatigue, uniaxial creep-­fatigue, uniaxial creep-ratcheting, multiaxial creep-fatigue, and multiaxial creep-­ratcheting. Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Optical Microscopy were conducted to correlate the beta parameter with individual microstructure mechanisms. We researched

  13. Emergence of neural angiostrongyliasis in eastern Australia.

    PubMed

    Aghazadeh, Mahdis; Jones, Malcolm K; Aland, Kieran V; Reid, Simon A; Traub, Rebecca J; McCarthy, James S; Lee, Rogan

    2015-03-01

    Despite an apparent increase in cases of angiostrongyliasis in humans and animals in Australia, the epidemiology of infection with the two species of Angiostrongylus that co-exist in this country, namely A. cantonensis and A. mackerrasae, is poorly understood. This knowledge gap is particularly important with respect to A. mackerrasae, a species evidently native to Australia, as its ability to cause disease in humans is unknown. Likewise, there is little information on the roles of native and introduced species of rodents and molluscs as hosts of Angiostrongylus species in Australia. This review focuses on the gaps in the knowledge about the two species, highlighting the need for epidemiological and pathogenesis studies on the native lungworm A. mackerrasae.

  14. Corneal fibropapillomatosis in green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) in Australia.

    PubMed

    Flint, M; Limpus, C J; Patterson-Kane, J C; Murray, P J; Mills, P C

    2010-05-01

    Chelonid corneal fibropapillomatosis has not previously been recorded in Australian waters. During 2008, 724 green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) were examined in Queensland, Australia at two sites, Moreton Bay (n=155) and Shoalwater Bay (n=569), during annual monitoring. In the same calendar year, 63 turtles were submitted from various sites in southern Queensland for post-mortem examination at the University of Queensland. Four of the 787 animals (0.5%) were found to have corneal fibropapillomas of varying size, with similar gross and microscopical features to those reported in other parts of the world. Two animals with corneal fibropapillomas also had cutaneous fibropapillomas. Clinical assessment indicated that these lesions had detrimental effects on the vision of the turtles and therefore their potential ability to source food, avoid predators and interact with conspecifics. Importantly, these findings represent an emergence of this manifestation of fibropapillomatosis in green sea turtle populations in the southern Pacific Ocean.

  15. The Moho in Australia and New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salmon, M.; Kennett, B. L. N.; Stern, T.; Aitken, A. R. A.

    2013-12-01

    Australia and New Zealand share in part a history in the Gondwana supercontinent. Australia has a long and complex tectonic history with the last major accretion in the early Paleozoic, whereas New Zealand is still undergoing major plate boundary processes. The Australian continent is relatively well covered with both active and passive seismic techniques. Multiple sources of information are therefore available for building a model of Moho depth. Results from on-shore and off-shore refraction experiments are supplemented by receiver functions from a large number of portable stations and the recently augmented set of permanent stations. Moho picks from more than 10 500 km of full-crustal reflection profiles provide valuable additional constraints. The composite data set provides good sampling of much of Australia, though coverage remains low in some remote desert areas. The various datasets provide multiple estimates of the depth to Moho in many regions, and the consistency between the different techniques is high. Some of the thinnest crust lies beneath the Archean craton in the Pilbara, and in the neighbourhood of the Simpson desert. Thick crust is encountered beneath parts of the Proterozoic in Central Australia, and beneath the Paleozoic Lachlan fold belt in southeastern Australia. There are a number of zones of sharp contrast in depth to Moho, notably in the southern part of Central Australia. Despite most of the continental material around New Zealand being submerged, Moho data for this region is mainly onshore concentrating on the Australia-Pacific plate boundary. Two major wide-angle reflection transects provide the bulk of the active source data with just a few traditional reflection profiles offshore. The plate boundary provides an abundance of local earthquakes for tomographic imaging and this data is supplemented with receiver functions from both portable and permanent networks. Onshore the combined coverage is as dense as that of Australia, although it

  16. The Moho in Australia and New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salmon, Michelle; Kennett, Brian; Sambridge, Malcolm; Stern, Tim

    2013-04-01

    Australia and New Zealand share in part a history in the Gondwana supercontinent. Australia has a long and complex tectonic history with the last major accretion in the early Paleozoic, whereas New Zealand is still undergoing major plate boundary processes. The Australian continent is relatively well covered with both active and passive seismic techniques. Multiple sources of information are therefore available for building a model of Moho depth. Results from on-shore and off-shore refraction experiments are supplemented by receiver functions from a large number of portable stations and the recently augmented set of permanent stations. Moho picks from more than 10500 km of full-crustal reflection profiles provide valuable additional constraints. The composite data set provides good sampling of much of Australia, though coverage remains low in some remote desert areas. The various datasets provide multiple estimates of the depth to Moho in many regions, and the consistency between the different techniques is high. Some of the thinnest crust lies beneath the Archean craton in the Pilbara, and in the neighbourhood of the Simpson desert. Thick crust is encountered beneath parts of the Proterozoic in Central Australia, and beneath the Paleozoic Lachlan fold belt in southeastern Australia. There are a number of zones of sharp contrast in depth to Moho, notably in the southern part of Central Australia. Despite most of the continental material around New Zealand being submerged, Moho data for this region is mainly onshore concentrating on the Australia-Pacific plate boundary. Two major wide-angle reflection transects provide the bulk of the active source data with just a few traditional reflection profiles offshore. The plate bound- ary provides an abundance of local earthquakes for tomographic imaging and this data is supplemented with receiver functions from both portable and permanent networks.Onshore the combined coverage is as dense as that of Australia, although it

  17. Status of Women In Physics in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foley, C. P.

    2009-04-01

    The status of women in physics is Australia has remained mostly steady until recently, with the appointment of several eminent women in major government of public roles. Australia seems to maintain the same gender ratio for those studying and working in physics. There is no overall coordination of programs to assist women into the workplace but there is generally goodwill. Success in attracting and retaining women in the physics workforce appears to depend on the local culture, initiatives, and attitude of the most senior person in the organization.

  18. Are LGBT populations at a higher risk for suicidal behaviors in Australia? Research findings and implications.

    PubMed

    Skerrett, Delaney M; Kõlves, Kairi; De Leo, Diego

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this article is to review the Australian literature about suicidality in minority sexual identity and/or behavior groups in order to determine the evidence base for their reported higher vulnerability to suicidal behaviors than heterosexual and non-transgendered individuals in the Australian context, as well as to identify the factors that are predictive of suicidal behaviors in these groups in Australia. A literature search for all available years (until the end of 2012) was conducted using the databases Scopus, Medline, and Proquest for articles published in English in peer-reviewed academic journals. All peer-reviewed publications that provided empirical evidence for prevalence and predictive factors of suicidal behaviors among LGBT individuals (or a subset thereof) in Australia were included. Reference lists were also scrutinized to identify "gray" literature for inclusion. The results revealed that there is only limited research from Australia. Nevertheless, although no population-based studies have been published, research indicates that sexual minorities are indeed at a higher risk for suicidal behaviors. In order to further the understanding of suicidal behaviors and potential prevention among LGBT groups in the Australia, further research is needed, particularly on fatal suicidal behaviors.

  19. Advances in drug metabolism and pharmacogenetics research in Australia.

    PubMed

    Mackenzie, Peter I; Somogyi, Andrew A; Miners, John O

    2017-02-01

    Metabolism facilitates the elimination, detoxification and excretion in urine or bile (as biotransformation products) of a myriad of structurally diverse drugs and other chemicals. The metabolism of drugs, non-drug xenobiotics and many endogenous compounds is catalyzed by families of drug metabolizing enzymes (DMEs). These include the hemoprotein-containing cytochromes P450, which function predominantly as monooxygenases, and conjugation enzymes that transfer a sugar, sulfate, acetate or glutathione moiety to substrates containing a suitable acceptor functional group. Drug and chemical metabolism, especially the enzymes that catalyse these reactions, has been the research focus of several groups in Australia for over four decades. In this review, we highlight the role of recent and current drug metabolism research in Australia, including elucidation of the structure and function of enzymes from the various DME families, factors that modulate enzyme activity in humans (e.g. drug-drug interactions, gene expression and genetic polymorphism) and the application of in vitro approaches for the prediction of drug metabolism parameters in humans, along with the broader pharmacological/clinical pharmacological and toxicological significance of drug metabolism and DMEs and their relevance to drug discovery and development, and to clinical practice.

  20. Changing roles of population-based cancer registries in Australia.

    PubMed

    Roder, David; Creighton, Nicola; Baker, Deborah; Walton, Richard; Aranda, Sanchia; Currow, David

    2015-09-01

    Registries have key roles in cancer incidence, mortality and survival monitoring and in showing disparities across the population. Incidence monitoring began in New South Wales in 1972 and other jurisdictions soon followed. Registry data are used to evaluate outcomes of preventive, screening, treatment and support services. They have shown decreases in cancer incidence following interventions and have been used for workforce and other infrastructure planning. Crude markers of optimal radiotherapy and chemotherapy exist and registry data are used to show shortfalls against these markers. The data are also used to investigate cancer clusters and environmental concerns. Survival data are used to assess service performance and interval cancer data are used in screening accreditation. Registries enable determination of risk of multiple primary cancers. Clinical quality registries are used for clinical quality improvement. Population-based cancer registries and linked administrative data complement clinical registries by providing high-level system-wide data. The USA Commission on Cancer has long used registries for quality assurance and service accreditation. Increasingly population-based registry data in Australia are linked with administrative data on service delivery to assess system performance. Addition oftumour stage and otherprognostic indicators is important forthese analyses and is facilitated by the roll-out of structured pathology reporting. Data linkage with administrative data, following checks on the quality of these data, enables assessment of patterns of care and other performance indicators for health-system monitoring. Australian cancer registries have evolved and increasingly are contributing to broader information networks for health system management.

  1. Landsat Based Woody Vegetation Loss Detection in Queensland, Australia Using the Google Earth Engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johansen, K.; Phinn, S. R.; Taylor, M.

    2014-12-01

    Land clearing detection and woody Foliage Projective Cover (FPC) monitoring at the state and national level in Australia has mainly been undertaken by state governments and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) because of the considerable expense, expertise, sustained duration of activities and staffing levels needed. Only recently have services become available, providing low budget, generalized access to change detection tools suited to this task. The objective of this research was to examine if a globally available service, Google Earth Engine Beta, could be used to predict woody vegetation loss with accuracies approaching the methods used by TERN and the government of the state of Queensland, Australia. Two change detection approaches were investigated using Landsat Thematic Mapper time series and the Google Earth Engine Application Programming Interface: (1) CART and Random Forest classifiers; and (2) a normalized time series of Foliage Projective Cover (FPC) and NDVI combined with a spectral index. The CART and Random Forest classifiers produced high user's and producer's mapping accuracies of clearing (77-92% and 54-77%, respectively) when detecting change within epochs for which training data were available, but extrapolation to epochs without training data reduced the mapping accuracies. The use of FPC and NDVI time series provided a more robust approach for calculation of a clearing probability, as it did not rely on training data but instead on the difference of the normalized FPC / NDVI mean and standard deviation of a single year at the change point in relation to the remaining time series. However, the FPC and NDVI time series approach represented a trade-off between user's and producer's accuracies. Both change detection approaches explored in this research were sensitive to ephemeral greening and drying of the landscape. However, the developed normalized FPC and NDVI time series approach can be tuned to provide automated alerts for large

  2. Status of solid oxide fuel cell development in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Badwal, S.P.S.; Foger, K.

    1995-12-31

    Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited, owned by a consortium consisting of BHP -- Australia`s largest company; CSIRO -- Australia`s major R and D Organization; Energy Research and Development Corporation -- Federal Government agency; Strategic Industry Research Foundation -- Victorian State Government agency and five major main land electricity utilities Pacific Power (New South Wales), ETSA (South Australia), Generation Victoria (Victoria), QEC (Queensland), SECWA (Western Australia) has been established to provide a national focus for the development of SOFC technology in Australia with a number of universities and research organizations contributing to its program. In this paper the status of solid oxide fuel cell R and D in Australia and within Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd has been described. The SOFC development effort, the R and D infrastructure and significant achievements made since the incorporation of the Company in manufacture of single cells and stacks and their performance has been discussed.

  3. 76 FR 65988 - Importation of Mangoes From Australia

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-25

    ..., Mangifera indica L., from Australia into the Continental United States, A Pathway-Initiated Risk Analysis... (Mangifera indica) may be imported into the continental United States from Australia only under the...

  4. Predicting biological effects of environmental mixtures using exposure:activity ratios (EAR) derived from US EPA’s ToxCast data: Retrospective application to chemical monitoring data

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chemical monitoring has been widely used in environmental surveillance to assess exposure to environmental contaminants which could represent potential hazards to exposed organisms. However, the ability to detect chemicals in the environment has rapidly outpaced assessment of pot...

  5. 22 CFR 120.35 - Australia Implementing Arrangement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Australia Implementing Arrangement. 120.35 Section 120.35 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC IN ARMS REGULATIONS PURPOSE AND DEFINITIONS § 120.35 Australia Implementing Arrangement. Australia Implementing Arrangement means...

  6. Internationalization in Australia and Canada: Lessons for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Kelly

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the internationalization of postsecondary education in Australia and Canada. The author discusses the contextual similarities and differences between the two countries, the shifting rationale "from aid to trade" behind Australia's internationalization attempts and some of the reasons for Australia's success.…

  7. Biodiversity in Australia: What, Where, and for How Long?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Panizzon, Debra; Boulton, Andrew

    2000-01-01

    Australia's most serious environmental problem is the loss of biological diversity, or biodiversity. Australia harbors much of the world's species diversity and has remarkably high numbers of endemic species. Reviews current threats to biodiversity and efforts to protect and enhance it in Australia. (Contains 29 references.) (Author/ASK)

  8. 7 CFR 319.56-61 - Litchi from Australia.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Litchi from Australia. 319.56-61 Section 319.56-61... from Australia. Litchi (Litchi chinensis) may be imported into the continental United States from Australia only under the following conditions and in accordance with all other applicable provisions of...

  9. Global Position and Position Taking: The Case of Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marginson, Simon

    2007-01-01

    From 1990 to 2003, Australia's share of the global market in cross-border degrees grew from 1% to 9%. Full fee-paying foreign students now constitute one quarter of enrolments, and education is Australia's third largest services export. Positioned as an Anglo-American system on the edge of Asia, Australia has differentiated itself from the United…

  10. Sex Education in South Australia: The Past and the Present

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Talukdar, Joy; Aspland, Tania; Datta, Poulomee

    2013-01-01

    In South Australia, sex education has been controversial since its inception. The Australasian White Cross league and the Family Planning Association of South Australia were the pioneers of sex education in South Australia. The framing of a national framework and the implementation of the SHARE (Sexual Health and Relationships Education) project…

  11. The Future of Nuclear Science in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Dillich, Jack

    2002-07-01

    The replacement of Australia's only nuclear reactor, the 44 year old HIFAR, with a state-of-the-art research facility represents an exciting development in nuclear science. The design for the replacement reactor incorporates many safety features, including extraordinary defence-in-depth. The facilities will include advanced capabilities in the areas of radiopharmaceutical production and neutron scattering research. (author)

  12. "Smartening Up": Ongoing Challenges for Australia's Outback

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cradduck, Lucy

    2016-01-01

    As the international community moves inexorably towards a "smart" future, the position of Australia's non-urban areas in that future is less certain. The (re-elected) Australian federal government made a commitment to moving Australian cities forward as part of the international "smart city" movement. However, the effectiveness…

  13. Remote access laboratories in Australia and Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ku, H.; Ahfock, T.; Yusaf, T.

    2011-06-01

    Remote access laboratories (RALs) were first developed in 1994 in Australia and Switzerland. The main purposes of developing them are to enable students to do their experiments at their own pace, time and locations and to enable students and teaching staff to get access to facilities beyond their institutions. Currently, most of the experiments carried out through RALs in Australia are heavily biased towards electrical, electronic and computer engineering disciplines. However, the experiments carried out through RALs in Europe had more variety, in addition to the traditional electrical, electronic and computer engineering disciplines, there were experiments in mechanical and mechatronic disciplines. It was found that RALs are now being developed aggressively in Australia and Europe and it can be argued that RALs will develop further and faster in the future with improving Internet technology. The rising costs of real experimental equipment will also speed up their development because by making the equipment remotely accessible, the cost can be shared by more universities or institutions and this will improve their cost-effectiveness. Their development would be particularly rapid in large countries with small populations such as Australia, Canada and Russia, because of the scale of economy. Reusability of software, interoperability in software implementation, computer supported collaborative learning and convergence with learning management systems are the required development of future RALs.

  14. International Higher Education in Australia: Unplanned Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shah, Mahsood; Nair, Chenicheri Sid

    2011-01-01

    International education is the third largest export industry in Australia and is worth almost A$20 billion. The last ten years have witnessed significant growth in both onshore and offshore enrolments of international students in Australian universities. The offshore component of all Australian universities has been subject to scrutiny by the…

  15. Australia's Contribution to International School Librarianship.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hallein, Joe; And Others

    Australia has played a very active role in promoting and developing school librarianship on an international basis. Most aid projects in school library development have been in the Asia/Pacific region, but programs have been implemented in other areas as well. The largest school library development project that has been carried out by Australians…

  16. Language Planning and Language Policy in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liddicoat, Anthony, Ed.

    1991-01-01

    A five-year period of particular activity in Australian language policy and language planning culminated with the 1991 publication of the White Paper called Australia's Language, which outlines proposed government programs in languages until 1994. Many of the papers in this theme issue of the journal of the Applied Linguistics Association of…

  17. Teaching about National Conservation Strategy for Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenall, Annette

    1986-01-01

    This article describes the development and content of the National Conservation Strategy for Australia (NCSA). The Australian Department of Arts, Heritage, and Environment has produced a teacher's guide designed to help teachers bring the content of the NCSA to their classroom. A description of the guide and ordering information are provided. (JDH)

  18. Tertiary Education in Australia: Part I

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sands, Edward Wilfrid; Berends, Willem

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the foundation and development of universities in Australia and New Zealand and demonstrates how these universities were established on a secular basis. Educators from other continents with a mainly Christian history are often surprised that there is so little evidence of Christian input into the university sector in…

  19. The First Suggestopedia German Course in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gassner-Roberts, Sigrid

    An account of personal experiences and experiments with a suggestopedic German course taught at the University of Adelaide in Australia is presented. Summaries of the students' background and of their continuous achievements in the German class are provided. The class was conducted primarily according to the "Manual of Classroom Procedures…

  20. Worker Education in Australia and New Zealand.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagglund, George

    The history of the recent development of worker education in Australia and New Zealand shows that, in just the past 15 years or so, very significant improvements have occurred in delivery of trade union education. To a very large degree these developments took place because of the existence of a close relationship between the union movement and…

  1. Public Engagement and Nanotechnology in Australia.

    PubMed

    Dalton-Brown, Sally

    2016-07-01

    Upstream engagement is commonly regarded as necessary for the smooth implementation of new technologies, particularly when there is an impact on health. Is the healthcare context in Australia geared toward such public engagement? There are established engagement practices for issues of healthcare resourcing, for example; however, the situation becomes more complex with the introduction of a new technology such as nanomedicine.

  2. Medical e-commerce for regional Australia.

    PubMed

    Kumar, D K; Mikelaitis, P

    2001-12-01

    The residents of rural and regional Australia have less access to health care services than in capital cities. There is a reluctance of General Practitioners to practice in the country. New information technology and government initiatives are now addressing this problem. High bandwidth videoconferencing is now being routinely used to provide psychiatric consultations to areas without this service. But this (like many other implementations of telecommunication technologies to health) has resulted in loss of revenue to regional Australia while benefiting capital cities. Thus, the current implementation of telecommunication technology to health has resulted in loss of revenue of the regions while increasing the bias towards the cities. Further, the system is not economically viable and requires the Government to inject funds for the smooth operation of the system. This paper proposes the use of telecommunication technology for enabling the communities of regional Australia to access health facilities via physical and virtual clinics. The proposed technique is self supporting and is based in the country with the intent to prevent the drain of resources from regional Australia. The technique attempts to eradicate the problem at the root level by providing a business opportunity that is based in and to cater for the needs of the remote communities. The proposed system would provide health services by physical and virtual clinics and while serving the communities would be profit centres- and thus attracting doctors and other resources to the remote communities.

  3. Hendra Virus Infection in Dog, Australia, 2013

    PubMed Central

    Gabor, Melinda; Poe, Ian; Neale, Kristie; Chaffey, Kim; Finlaison, Deborah S.; Gu, Xingnian; Hick, Paul M.; Read, Andrew J.; Wright, Therese; Middleton, Deborah

    2015-01-01

    Hendra virus occasionally causes severe disease in horses and humans. In Australia in 2013, infection was detected in a dog that had been in contact with an infected horse. Abnormalities and viral RNA were found in the dog’s kidney, brain, lymph nodes, spleen, and liver. Dogs should be kept away from infected horses. PMID:26583697

  4. Occupational Forecasting of Librarians in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stall, Roy

    This paper reviews the principal sources and methods used by the Manpower Research and Information Branches of the Department of Employment and Industrial Relations (DEIR) to forecast the over or undersupply of librarians in Australia. After differentiating between manpower policy, planning, and forecasting, the role of the commonwealth government…

  5. Eritrea: Lessons for Australia's Language Policy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andreoni, Helen

    1997-01-01

    Discusses language policy matters and the management of cultural and linguistic diversity in the area of education, with particular reference to Eritrea in East Africa and its application to Australia's language situation. The article presents examples of the impact of the tyrannical imposition of language usage, including the long-term…

  6. Australia's Universities--Through the Looking Glass.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penington, David

    1991-01-01

    Upheaval in Australia's university system in recent years can be attributed in large part to two influences dating to 1987: accession of John Dawkins to the Ministry of Employment, Education, and Training and the advent of federal regulation of industrial relations in education, which has undermined the collegial decision-making tradition. (MSE)

  7. South Pacific: Australia comes back strong

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    Exploration and production action experienced mixed fortunes last year. Exploration improved markedly with increased Australian activity. Liquids output declined, but gas production was up overall. The paper discusses exploration, drilling, development, and production in Australia, the Zone of Cooperation, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea.

  8. Food Literacy at Secondary Schools in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ronto, Rimante; Ball, Lauren; Pendergast, Donna; Harris, Neil D.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Food literacy can encourage adolescents to develop healthy dietary patterns. This study examined home economics teachers' (HET) perspectives of the importance, curriculum, self-efficacy, and food environments regarding food literacy in secondary schools in Australia. Methods: A 20-item cross-sectional survey was completed by 205 HETs.…

  9. Mapping Music Education Research in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stevens, Robin S.; McPherson, Gary E.

    2004-01-01

    Music education research in Australia has grown almost exponentially over the past 25 years. Particularly in the area of doctoral research studies, there has been a substantial increase in the number of theses completed from two in 1977 to 72 in 2002. In addition, there have been increases in professional research undertaken by university…

  10. School Security Assessment Programme in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marrapodi, John

    2007-01-01

    This article describes a successful security risk management programme in Australia. The state-wide programme follows a structured risk management approach focusing on the safety and security of people, information, provision, and assets in the school environment. To assist school principals, a Security Risk Assessment Programme was developed on a…

  11. Improving the Quality of Teaching in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinham, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    Australia needs to more effectively attract, train, support, retain, recognize, and reward quality teachers throughout their careers. After a slow start and decades of debate, the pieces of the quality teaching puzzle are now coming together. Increased federal government intervention and financial support, along with state and territorial support…

  12. Internet advertising of artificial tanning in Australia.

    PubMed

    Team, Victoria; Markovic, Milica

    2006-08-01

    Artificial tanning, defined as deliberate exposure to ultraviolet rays produced by artificial tanning devices, is a new and emerging public health issue in Australia and globally. Epidemiological research suggests that artificial tanning may contribute to the incidence of melanoma, nonmelanoma skin cancer as well as other health problems. Given that Australia has a high incidence of skin cancer, we have undertaken a study to explore how artificial tanning has been promoted to its users. The aim was to analyze the completeness and accuracy of information about artificial tanning. A content analysis of web sites of tanning salons and distributors of tanning equipment in Australia was conducted. A total of 22 web sites were analyzed. None of the solarium operators or distributors of equipment provided full information about the risks of artificial tanning. Fifty-nine percent of web advertisements had no information and 41% provided only partial information regarding the risks of artificial tanning. Pictures with the image of bronze-tanned bodies, predominantly women, were used by all web advertisers. In light of the success of sun-safety campaigns in Australia, the findings of future epidemiological research on the prevalence of artificial tanning and sociological and anthropological research on why people utilize artificial tanning should be a basis for developing effective targeted health promotion on the elimination of artificial tanning in the country.

  13. The Teaching of Japanese in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marriott, Helen E.

    1992-01-01

    The article surveys the development of Japanese language courses in Australia, noting a variety of factors contribute to the growth and recent intensification of interest in the subject. It examines problems within Japanese language teaching and discusses further innovative course development, differentiation of needs, employer perceptions, and…

  14. The Inclusive Secondary School Teacher in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pearce, Michelle

    2009-01-01

    As a result of the 1992 Disability Discrimination Act in Australia and parental support for inclusion, regular teachers now include students with disabilities in their classes. Inclusion has been more successful in primary than in secondary schools. Secondary schools remain a challenge due to their traditional focus on curriculum, examinations,…

  15. Learning around Town: Learning Communities in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henderson, Liz; Castles, Rachel; McGrath, Majella; Brown, Tony

    This booklet explains the features and benefits of learning communities and summarizes Australia's experience with them. Part 1 traces the history of learning communities from the 1970s through the present, presents several definitions of the term "learning community," lists reasons for becoming a learning community, and explains the…

  16. The Outlook for Training in Australia's Industries.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Centre for Vocational Education Research, Leabrook (Australia).

    This book, which is intended primarily for Australia's vocational education and training (VET) sector, industry decision makers, and policymakers, provides an overview of occupational trends and the current training effort relating to occupations in Australian industry. Chapter 1 traces economic and labor market changes and the changing…

  17. Tertiary Education and Training in Australia, 2009

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2011

    2011-01-01

    Sourcing data from the National VET Provider Collection and the Higher Education Statistics Collection, this publication provides a summary of participation in tertiary education and training in Australia. It covers participation in Australian Qualifications Framework certificate I qualifications through to doctorates by research, as well as…

  18. GNSS Antenna Calibration Facility at Geoscience Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, A. R.; Moore, M. J.; Dawson, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    A GNSS antenna calibration facility has recently been established at Geoscience Australia. The facility includes a GEO++ robotic antenna calibration system, and an industrial robot (';KUKA'). Previous studies have highlighted the importance of accounting for the variation in antenna calibration due to the electromagnetic coupling between the antenna and monument. The reactive near-field effect has been reported to have the potential to produce a combination of a mean bias and change in periodic noise characteristics which then result in a velocity bias as well as a decrease in precision of coordinate estimates. Initially the priority of the calibration system will be to perform individual antenna calibrations for over 100 antennas purchased for high accuracy deformation surveys carried out in Western Australia, South Australia and south-east Australia. The principal aim of these deformation surveys is to detect intra-plate crustal deformation, where the magnitude of the signal is expected to be less than 1 mm/yr. The main role of the industrial robot is for research and development into GNSS algorithms and to further developments into antenna calibration. The industrial robot has a much higher payload capability of up to 60 kg. This makes it feasible to perform calibrations with a section of the monument still attached to the antenna, potentially providing a calibration which will better reflect the environment the signals are observed in. We will detail various experiments to be carried out on the industrial robot, and provide an update on the status and performance of the calibration facility.

  19. Francisella tularensis Subspecies holarctica, Tasmania, Australia, 2011

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Justin; McGregor, Alistair; Cooley, Louise; Ng, Jimmy; Brown, Mitchell; Ong, Chong Wei; Darcy, Catharine

    2012-01-01

    We report a case of ulceroglandular tularemia that developed in a woman after she was bitten by a ringtail possum (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) in a forest in Tasmania, Australia. Francisella tularensis subspecies holarctica was identified. This case indicates the emergence of F. tularensis type B in the Southern Hemisphere. PMID:22931809

  20. Australia: Evaluation and Quality in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woodhouse, David; Stokes, Terry

    2010-01-01

    Modern Australia evolved from separate colonies, which came together as a federation a century ago. The balance of state/federal responsibilities is relevant to most aspects of Australian life. This includes higher education, where universities are largely state owned but federally funded (with government funding declining), while the other higher…

  1. Australia: An Instructional Unit for Elementary Grades.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duea, Joan; And Others

    Designed to provide elementary teachers with materials for the study of Australia, this unit contains 19 lessons that include objectives, materials, procedures, suggested extension activities, and answer keys where needed. Following the 19 lessons are blackline masters for teacher transparencies, student worksheets, and extension activities. A…

  2. Social Inclusion and Critical Consciousness in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diemer, Matthew A.; Ortega, Lilyana

    2010-01-01

    Australia's Indigenous population is excluded from a range of opportunities, experiences and amenities that facilitate wellbeing, self-determination and social inclusion. This social exclusion constrains the career development and occupational attainment of Indigenous youth, which represent key routes to societal inclusion. Critical…

  3. An Environmentally Sustainable Development in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Ruth

    2003-01-01

    The future Kelvin Grove Urban Village in Queensland, Australia, is an example of how principles of environmentally sustainable design have translated into practice. Those responsible for the new project recognise the importance of building design that respects the environment by using resources efficiently and minimising pollution. The site's…

  4. Research Update: Outdoor Education Fatalities in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brookes, Andrew

    2007-01-01

    This paper is part of an on-going project to examine outdoor education related deaths in Australia since 1960. It records eleven incidents not included in previous papers in this series. A total of 14 students or staff died in the incidents. The paper reviews the incidents and identifies what further lessons can be learned about fatality…

  5. Teaching Near and Far - Broome, Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Herceg, Christina; Renouf, Tia

    2016-11-09

    Broome is a remote coastal town in Western Australia. As a general practitioner working in Broome, I have been involved in the education of general practice trainee registrars both locally and remotely, as a supervisor with two different training programs.

  6. Remote Access Laboratories in Australia and Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ku, H.; Ahfock, T.; Yusaf, T.

    2011-01-01

    Remote access laboratories (RALs) were first developed in 1994 in Australia and Switzerland. The main purposes of developing them are to enable students to do their experiments at their own pace, time and locations and to enable students and teaching staff to get access to facilities beyond their institutions. Currently, most of the experiments…

  7. Australia's Federated Network Universities: What Happened?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massingham, Peter

    2001-01-01

    Examines the performance of Australia's three federated network universities from an inter-organizational relations perspective. Investigates the influence of the political economy--network members' pursuit of funds and power--on the network's relationships and its performance. Describes how the strength of the network's political economy and the…

  8. New volcanoes discovered in southeast Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wendel, JoAnna

    2014-07-01

    Scientists have discovered three new active volcanoes in the Newer Volcanics Province (NVP) in southeast Australia. Researchers from Monash University in Melbourne describe in the Australian Journal of Earth Sciences how they used a combination of satellite photographs, detailed topography models from NASA, the distribution of magnetic minerals in the rocks, and site visits to analyze the region.

  9. Fifty years of changes in UV Index and implications for skin cancer in Australia.

    PubMed

    Lemus-Deschamps, Lilia; Makin, Jennifer K

    2012-07-01

    Surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation plays an important role in human health. Increased exposure to UV radiation increases the risk of skin cancer. In Australia, public campaigns to prevent skin cancer include the promotion of daily UV forecasts. If all other atmospheric factors are equal, stratospheric ozone decreases result in UV increases. Given that Australia still has the highest skin cancer rates in the world, it is important to monitor Australia's stratospheric ozone and UV radiation levels over time because of the effects cumulative exposure can have on humans. In this paper, two long-term ozone datasets derived from surface and satellite measurements, a radiation code and atmospheric meteorological fields are used to calculate clear-sky UV radiation over a 50-year period (1959-2009) for Australia. The deviations from 1970-1980 levels show that clear-sky UV is on the rise. After the 1990s, an overall annual increase from 2 to 6% above the 1970-1980 levels was observed at all latitudes. Examining the summer and winter deviations from 1970-1980 showed that the winter signal dominated the annual changes, with winter increases almost twice those in summer. With ozone levels not expected to recover to pre-depletion levels until the middle of this century, UV levels are expected to continue to rise. Combined with Australians favoring an outdoor life-style, when temperatures are warmer, under high levels of UV, the associated risk of skin cancer will increase.

  10. Fifty years of changes in UV Index and implications for skin cancer in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemus-Deschamps, Lilia; Makin, Jennifer K.

    2012-07-01

    Surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation plays an important role in human health. Increased exposure to UV radiation increases the risk of skin cancer. In Australia, public campaigns to prevent skin cancer include the promotion of daily UV forecasts. If all other atmospheric factors are equal, stratospheric ozone decreases result in UV increases. Given that Australia still has the highest skin cancer rates in the world, it is important to monitor Australia's stratospheric ozone and UV radiation levels over time because of the effects cumulative exposure can have on humans. In this paper, two long-term ozone datasets derived from surface and satellite measurements, a radiation code and atmospheric meteorological fields are used to calculate clear-sky UV radiation over a 50-year period (1959-2009) for Australia. The deviations from 1970-1980 levels show that clear-sky UV is on the rise. After the 1990s, an overall annual increase from 2 to 6% above the 1970-1980 levels was observed at all latitudes. Examining the summer and winter deviations from 1970-1980 showed that the winter signal dominated the annual changes, with winter increases almost twice those in summer. With ozone levels not expected to recover to pre-depletion levels until the middle of this century, UV levels are expected to continue to rise. Combined with Australians favoring an outdoor life-style, when temperatures are warmer, under high levels of UV, the associated risk of skin cancer will increase.

  11. Climate change, aeroallergens, natural particulates, and human health in Australia: state of the science and policy.

    PubMed

    Beggs, Paul John; Bennett, Charmian Margaret

    2011-03-01

    The objective of this article is to systematically review and assess what is known about the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates, and the associated human health impacts, and to examine responses to these in Australia, focusing on adaptation. Prior research was searched using several general and discipline-specific research databases. The review concludes that whereas there is little original research on the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates in Australia, or the human health consequences of these, research from overseas suggests that these impacts may be adverse and of considerable magnitude. More research is required to assess the impacts of climate change on these airborne particles and associated diseases in Australia and other parts of the Asia-Pacific. There are important policy implications of this review. There is a need for enhanced monitoring of the atmospheric environment and associated health conditions in Australia. Education about climate change and human health in general, and air quality and related diseases specifically, is required for the community, health professionals, and others. Improvements are needed in the preparedness of infrastructure, such as health care facilities and early warning systems, particularly for aeroallergens, and all of these adaptive policy responses require further research.

  12. FleaTickRisk: a meteorological model developed to monitor and predict the activity and density of three tick species and the cat flea in Europe.

    PubMed

    Beugnet, Frédéric; Chalvet-Monfray, Karine; Loukos, Harilaos

    2009-11-01

    Mathematical modelling is quite a recent tool in epidemiology. Geographical information system (GIS) combined with remote sensing (data collection and analysis) provide valuable models, but the integration of climatologic models in parasitology and epidemiology is less common. The aim of our model, called "FleaTickRisk", was to use meteorological data and forecasts to monitor the activity and density of some arthropods. Our parasitological model uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model integrating biological parameters. The WRF model provides a temperature and humidity picture four times a day (at 6:00, 12:00, 18:00 and 24:00 hours). Its geographical resolution is 27 x 27 km over Europe (area between longitudes 10.5 degrees W and 30 degrees E and latitudes 37.75 degrees N and 62 degrees N). The model also provides weekly forecasts. Past data were compared and revalidated using current meteorological data generated by ground stations and weather satellites. The WRF model also includes geographical information stemming from United States Geophysical Survey biotope maps with a 30'' spatial resolution (approximately 900 x 900 m). WRF takes into account specific climatic conditions due to valleys, altitudes, lakes and wind specificities. The biological parameters of Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus, Rhipicephalus sanguineus and Ctenocephalides felis felis were transformed into a matrix of activity. This activity matrix is expressed as a percentage, ranging from 0 to 100, for each interval of temperature x humidity. The activity of these arthropods is defined by their ability to infest hosts, take blood meals and reproduce. For each arthropod, the matrix was calculated using existing data collected under optimal temperature and humidity conditions, as well as the timing of the life cycle. The mathematical model integrating both the WRF model (meteorological data + geographical data) and the biological matrix provides two indexes: an

  13. Monitoring, safety systems for LNG and LPG operators

    SciTech Connect

    True, W.R.

    1998-11-16

    Operators in Korea and Australia have chosen monitoring and control systems in recent contracts for LNG and LPG storage. Korea Gas Corp. (Kogas) has hired Whessoe Varec, Calais, to provide monitoring systems for four LNG storage tanks being built at Kogas` Inchon terminal. For Elgas Ltd., Port Botany, Australia, Whessoe Varec has already shipped a safety valve-shutdown system to a new LPG cavern-storage facility under construction. The paper describes the systems, terminal monitoring, dynamic approach to tank management, and meeting the growing demand for LPG.

  14. Oldest coelacanth, from the Early Devonian of Australia.

    PubMed

    Johanson, Zerina; Long, John A; Talent, John A; Janvier, Philippe; Warren, James W

    2006-09-22

    Coelacanths are well-known sarcopterygian (lobe-finned) fishes, which together with lungfishes are the closest extant relatives of land vertebrates (tetrapods). Coelacanths have both living representatives and a rich fossil record, but lack fossils older than the late Middle Devonian (385-390 Myr ago), conflicting with current phylogenies implying coelacanths diverged from other sarcopterygians in the earliest Devonian (410-415 Myr ago). Here, we report the discovery of a new coelacanth from the Early Devonian of Australia (407-409 Myr ago), which fills in the approximately 20 Myr 'ghost range' between previous coelacanth records and the predicted origin of the group. This taxon is based on a single lower jaw bone, the dentary, which is deep and short in form and possesses a dentary sensory pore, otherwise seen in Carboniferous and younger taxa.

  15. ENSO controls interannual fire activity in southeast Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariani, M.; Fletcher, M.-S.; Holz, A.; Nyman, P.

    2016-10-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode controlling the variability in the ocean-atmosphere system in the South Pacific. While the ENSO influence on rainfall regimes in the South Pacific is well documented, its role in driving spatiotemporal trends in fire activity in this region has not been rigorously investigated. This is particularly the case for the highly flammable and densely populated southeast Australian sector, where ENSO is a major control over climatic variability. Here we conduct the first region-wide analysis of how ENSO controls fire activity in southeast Australia. We identify a significant relationship between ENSO and both fire frequency and area burnt. Critically, wavelet analyses reveal that despite substantial temporal variability in the ENSO system, ENSO exerts a persistent and significant influence on southeast Australian fire activity. Our analysis has direct application for developing robust predictive capacity for the increasingly important efforts at fire management.

  16. Induced urinary crystal formation as an analytical strategy for the prediction and monitoring of urolithiasis and other metabolism-related disorders

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Crystal formation reflects the entire composition of the surrounding solution. In case of urolithiasis, induced crystal formation in native urine has led to the development of the Bonn-Risk-Index (BRI), a valuable tool to quantify an individual's risk of calcium oxalate urolithiasis. If the progression of a disease is associated with characteristic changes in the activities of urinary components, this leads to an altered urinary crystallisation capacity. Therefore, the results of induced urinary crystal formation can be used to detect and monitor any disease linked to the altered urinary composition. Since crystal formation inherently takes into account the entire urinary composition, the influence of the disease on individual urinary parameters does not have to be known in order to monitor the consequent pathologic alterations. In this paper, we review the background of urinary crystal formation analysis and describe its established application in urolithiasis monitoring as well as potential further fields of clinical application. PMID:25206937

  17. Conservation Covenants on Private Land: Issues with Measuring and Achieving Biodiversity Outcomes in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzsimons, James A.; Carr, C. Ben

    2014-09-01

    Conservation covenants and easements have become essential tools to secure biodiversity outcomes on private land, and to assist in meeting international protection targets. In Australia, the number and spatial area of conservation covenants has grown significantly in the past decade. Yet there has been little research or detailed policy analysis of conservation covenanting in Australia. We sought to determine how conservation covenanting agencies were measuring the biodiversity conservation outcomes achieved on covenanted properties, and factors inhibiting or contributing to measuring these outcomes. In addition, we also investigated the drivers and constraints associated with actually delivering the biodiversity outcomes, drawing on detailed input from covenanting programs. Although all conservation covenanting programs had the broad aim of maintaining or improving biodiversity in their covenants in the long term, the specific stated objectives of conservation covenanting programs varied. Programs undertook monitoring and evaluation in different ways and at different spatial and temporal scales. Thus, it was difficult to determine the extent Australian conservation covenanting agencies were measuring the biodiversity conservation outcomes achieved on covenanted properties on a national scale. Lack of time available to covenantors to undertake management was one of the biggest impediments to achieving biodiversity conservation outcomes. A lack of financial resources and human capital to monitor, knowing what to monitor, inconsistent monitoring methodologies, a lack of benchmark data, and length of time to achieve outcomes were all considered potential barriers to monitoring the biodiversity conservation outcomes of conservation covenants.

  18. Conservation covenants on private land: issues with measuring and achieving biodiversity outcomes in Australia.

    PubMed

    Fitzsimons, James A; Carr, C Ben

    2014-09-01

    Conservation covenants and easements have become essential tools to secure biodiversity outcomes on private land, and to assist in meeting international protection targets. In Australia, the number and spatial area of conservation covenants has grown significantly in the past decade. Yet there has been little research or detailed policy analysis of conservation covenanting in Australia. We sought to determine how conservation covenanting agencies were measuring the biodiversity conservation outcomes achieved on covenanted properties, and factors inhibiting or contributing to measuring these outcomes. In addition, we also investigated the drivers and constraints associated with actually delivering the biodiversity outcomes, drawing on detailed input from covenanting programs. Although all conservation covenanting programs had the broad aim of maintaining or improving biodiversity in their covenants in the long term, the specific stated objectives of conservation covenanting programs varied. Programs undertook monitoring and evaluation in different ways and at different spatial and temporal scales. Thus, it was difficult to determine the extent Australian conservation covenanting agencies were measuring the biodiversity conservation outcomes achieved on covenanted properties on a national scale. Lack of time available to covenantors to undertake management was one of the biggest impediments to achieving biodiversity conservation outcomes. A lack of financial resources and human capital to monitor, knowing what to monitor, inconsistent monitoring methodologies, a lack of benchmark data, and length of time to achieve outcomes were all considered potential barriers to monitoring the biodiversity conservation outcomes of conservation covenants.

  19. Water conservation behavior in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Dolnicar, Sara; Hurlimann, Anna; Grün, Bettina

    2012-01-01

    Ensuring a nation's long term water supply requires the use of both supply-sided approaches such as water augmentation through water recycling, and demand-sided approaches such as water conservation. Conservation behavior can only be increased if the key drivers of such behavior are understood. The aim of this study is to reveal the main drivers from a comprehensive pool of hypothesized factors. An empirical study was conducted with 3094 Australians. Data was analyzed using multivariate linear regression analysis and decision trees to determine which factors best predict self-reported water conservation behavior. Two key factors emerge: high level of pro-environmental behavior; and pro-actively seeking out information about water. A number of less influential factors are also revealed. Public communication strategy implications are derived. PMID:22522412

  20. Data quality of a wearable vital signs monitor in the pre-hospital and emergency departments for enhancing prediction of needs for life-saving interventions in trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Liu, Nehemiah T; Holcomb, John B; Wade, Charles E; Darrah, Mark I; Salinas, Jose

    2015-01-01

    This study was designed to investigate the quality of data in the pre-hospital and emergency departments when using a wearable vital signs monitor and examine the efficacy of a combined model of standard vital signs and respective data quality indices (DQIs) for predicting the need for life-saving interventions (LSIs) in trauma patients. It was hypothesised that prediction of needs for LSIs in trauma patients is associated with data quality. Also, a model utilizing vital signs and DQIs to predict the needs for LSIs would be able to outperform models using vital signs alone. Data from 104 pre-hospital trauma patients transported by helicopter were analysed, including means and standard deviations of continuous vital signs, related DQIs and Glasgow coma scale (GCS) scores for LSI and non-LSI patient groups. DQIs involved percentages of valid measurements and mean deviation ratios. Various multivariate logistic regression models for predicting LSI needs were also obtained and compared through receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Demographics of patients were not statistically different between LSI and non-LSI patient groups. In addition, ROC curves demonstrated better prediction of LSI needs in patients using heart rate and DQIs (area under the curve [AUC] of 0.86) than using heart rate alone (AUC of 0.73). Likewise, ROC curves demonstrated better prediction using heart rate, total GCS score and DQIs (AUC of 0.99) than using heart rate and total GCS score (AUC of 0.92). AUCs were statistically different (p < 0.05). This study showed that data quality could be used in addition to continuous vital signs for predicting the need for LSIs in trauma patients. Importantly, trauma systems should incorporate processes to regulate data quality of physiologic data in the pre-hospital and emergency departments. By doing so, data quality could be improved and lead to better prediction of needs for LSIs in trauma patients.

  1. Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, A. G.; Hudson, D.; Wheeler, M. C.; Alves, O.; Hendon, H. H.; Pook, M. J.; Risbey, J. S.

    2014-10-01

    We assess the occurrence and probability of extreme heat over Australia in association with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which have previously been shown to be key drivers of intra-seasonal variations of Australian climate. In this study, extreme heat events are defined as occurring when weekly-mean maximum temperature anomalies exceed the 90th percentile. The observed probability of exceedance is reduced during the positive phase of the SAM and enhanced during the negative phase of the SAM over most of Australia. Persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea are described in terms of (1) split-flow blocking at 160°E and (2) high pressure systems located in the vicinity of the subtropical ridge (STRHs), about 10° north of the split-flow blocking region, for which we devise a simple index. Split-flow blocks and STRHs have contrasting impacts on the occurrence of extreme heat over Australia, with STRHs showing enhanced probability of upper decile heat events over southern Australia in all seasons. The observed probability of an upper decile heat event varies according to MJO phase and time of year, with the greatest impact of the MJO on extreme heat occurring over southern Australia (including the Mallee agricultural region) in spring during phases 2-3. We show that this modulation of the probability of extreme heat by the SAM, persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea, and the MJO is well simulated in the Bureau of Meteorology dynamical intra-seasonal/seasonal forecast model POAMA-2 at lead times of 2-3 weeks. We further show that predictability of heat extremes increases in association with the negative SAM phase, STRH and MJO, thus providing a basis for skilful intra-seasonal prediction of heat extremes.

  2. Baseline map of organic carbon in Australian soil to support national carbon accounting and monitoring under climate change.

    PubMed

    Viscarra Rossel, Raphael A; Webster, Richard; Bui, Elisabeth N; Baldock, Jeff A

    2014-09-01

    We can effectively monitor soil condition-and develop sound policies to offset the emissions of greenhouse gases-only with accurate data from which to define baselines. Currently, estimates of soil organic C for countries or continents are either unavailable or largely uncertain because they are derived from sparse data, with large gaps over many areas of the Earth. Here, we derive spatially explicit estimates, and their uncertainty, of the distribution and stock of organic C in the soil of Australia. We assembled and harmonized data from several sources to produce the most comprehensive set of data on the current stock of organic C in soil of the continent. Using them, we have produced a fine spatial resolution baseline map of organic C at the continental scale. We describe how we made it by combining the bootstrap, a decision tree with piecewise regression on environmental variables and geostatistical modelling of residuals. Values of stock were predicted at the nodes of a 3-arc-sec (approximately 90 m) grid and mapped together with their uncertainties. We then calculated baselines of soil organic C storage over the whole of Australia, its states and territories, and regions that define bioclimatic zones, vegetation classes and land use. The average amount of organic C in Australian topsoil is estimated to be 29.7 t ha(-1) with 95% confidence limits of 22.6 and 37.9 t ha(-1) . The total stock of organic C in the 0-30 cm layer of soil for the continent is 24.97 Gt with 95% confidence limits of 19.04 and 31.83 Gt. This represents approximately 3.5% of the total stock in the upper 30 cm of soil worldwide. Australia occupies 5.2% of the global land area, so the total organic C stock of Australian soil makes an important contribution to the global carbon cycle, and it provides a significant potential for sequestration. As the most reliable approximation of the stock of organic C in Australian soil in 2010, our estimates have important applications. They could support

  3. A dispersal-constrained habitat suitability model for predicting invasion of alpine vegetation.

    PubMed

    Williams, Nicholas S G; Hahs, Amy K; Morgan, John W

    2008-03-01

    Developing tools to predict the location of new biological invasions is essential if exotic species are to be controlled before they become widespread. Currently, alpine areas in Australia are largely free of exotic plant species but face increasing pressure from invasive species due to global warming and intensified human use. To predict the potential spread of highly invasive orange hawkweed (Hieracium aurantiacum) from existing founder populations on the Bogong High Plains in southern Australia, we developed an expert-based, spatially explicit, dispersal-constrained, habitat suitability model. The model combines a habitat suitability index, developed from disturbance, site wetness, and vegetation community parameters, with a phenomenological dispersal kernel that uses wind direction and observed dispersal distances. After generating risk maps that defined the relative suitability of H. aurantiacum establishment across the study area, we intensively searched several locations to evaluate the model. The highest relative suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment was southeast from the initial infestations. Native tussock grasslands and disturbed areas had high suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment. Extensive field searches failed to detect new populations. Time-step evaluation using the location of populations known in 1998-2000, accurately assigned high relative suitability for locations where H. aurantiacum had established post-2003 (AUC [area under curve] = 0.855 +/- 0.035). This suggests our model has good predictive power and will improve the ability to detect populations and prioritize areas for ongoing monitoring.

  4. Integrating real-time and manual monitored data to predict hillslope soil moisture dynamics with high spatio-temporal resolution using linear and non-linear models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture (') is a challenge that remains to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time ' monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of ' dynamic...

  5. Predicting Parental Monitoring Behaviours for Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Parents of School-Aged Children: An Application of the Integrative Behavioural Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Housely, Alexandra; Branscum, Paul; Cheney, Marshall; Hofford, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to identify theory-based psychosocial and environmental determinants of parental monitoring practices related to child sugar-sweetened beverage consumption. Design: Cross-sectional design. Method: Data were obtained from a convenience sample of parents (n = 270) with children attending an after-school…

  6. Daily electronic self-monitoring of subjective and objective symptoms in bipolar disorder—the MONARCA trial protocol (MONitoring, treAtment and pRediCtion of bipolAr disorder episodes): a randomised controlled single-blind trial

    PubMed Central

    Faurholt-Jepsen, Maria; Vinberg, Maj; Christensen, Ellen Margrethe; Frost, Mads; Bardram, Jakob; Kessing, Lars Vedel

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Electronic self-monitoring of affective symptoms using cell phones is suggested as a practical and inexpensive way to monitor illness activity and identify early signs of affective symptoms. It has never been tested in a randomised clinical trial whether electronic self-monitoring improves outcomes in bipolar disorder. We are conducting a trial testing the effect of using a Smartphone for self-monitoring in bipolar disorder. Methods We developed the MONARCA application for Android-based Smartphones, allowing patients suffering from bipolar disorder to do daily self-monitoring—including an interactive feedback loop between patients and clinicians through a web-based interface. The effect of the application was tested in a parallel-group, single-blind randomised controlled trial so far including 78 patients suffering from bipolar disorder in the age group 18–60 years who were given the use of a Smartphone with the MONARCA application (intervention group) or to the use of a cell phone without the application (placebo group) during a 6-month study period. The study was carried out from September 2011. The outcomes were changes in affective symptoms (primary), social functioning, perceived stress, self-rated depressive and manic symptoms, quality of life, adherence to medication, stress and cognitive functioning (secondary and tertiary). Analysis Recruitment is ongoing. Ethics Ethical permission has been obtained. Dissemination Positive, neutral and negative findings of the study will be published. Registration details The trial is approved by the Regional Ethics Committee in The Capital Region of Denmark (H-2-2011-056) and The Danish Data Protection Agency (2013-41-1710). The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT01446406. PMID:23883891

  7. Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis Misting for Control of Aedes in Cryptic Ground Containers in North Queensland, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Jacups, Susan P.; Rapley, Luke P.; Johnson, Petrina H.; Benjamin, Seleena; Ritchie, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    In Australia, dengue is not endemic, although the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established in far north Queensland (FNQ). Aedes albopictus has recently invaded the Torres Strait region, but is not established on mainland Australia. To maintain dengue-free, public health departments in FNQ closely monitor introduced dengue infections and confine outbreaks through rigorous vector control responses. To safeguard mainland Australia from Ae. albopictus establishment, pre-emptive strategies are required to reduce its breeding in difficult to access habitats. We compare the residual efficacy of VectoBac WDG, Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti) formulation, as a residual treatment when misted across a typical FNQ bushland using a backpack mister (Stihl SR 420 Mist Blower) at two dose rates up to 16 m. Semi-field condition results, over 16 weeks, indicate that Bti provided high mortality rates (> 80%) sustained for 11 weeks. Mist application penetrated 16 m of dense bushland without efficacy decline over distance. PMID:23358637

  8. Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis misting for control of Aedes in cryptic ground containers in north Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Jacups, Susan P; Rapley, Luke P; Johnson, Petrina H; Benjamin, Seleena; Ritchie, Scott A

    2013-03-01

    In Australia, dengue is not endemic, although the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established in far north Queensland (FNQ). Aedes albopictus has recently invaded the Torres Strait region, but is not established on mainland Australia. To maintain dengue-free, public health departments in FNQ closely monitor introduced dengue infections and confine outbreaks through rigorous vector control responses. To safeguard mainland Australia from Ae. albopictus establishment, pre-emptive strategies are required to reduce its breeding in difficult to access habitats. We compare the residual efficacy of VectoBac WDG, Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti) formulation, as a residual treatment when misted across a typical FNQ bushland using a backpack mister (Stihl SR 420 Mist Blower) at two dose rates up to 16 m. Semi-field condition results, over 16 weeks, indicate that Bti provided high mortality rates (> 80%) sustained for 11 weeks. Mist application penetrated 16 m of dense bushland without efficacy decline over distance.

  9. Pregnancy and Neonatal Diabetes Outcomes in Remote Australia (PANDORA) study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Diabetes in pregnancy carries an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes for both the mother and foetus, but it also provides an excellent early opportunity for intervention in the life course for both mother and baby. In the context of the escalating epidemic of chronic diseases among Indigenous Australians, it is vital that this risk is reduced as early as possible in the life course of the individual. The aims of the PANDORA Study are to: (i) accurately assess rates of diabetes in pregnancy in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia, where 38% of babies are born to Indigenous mothers; (ii) assess demographic, clinical, biochemical, anthropometric, socioeconomic and early life development factors that may contribute to key maternal and neonatal birth outcomes associated with diabetes in pregnancy; and (iii) monitor relevant post-partum clinical outcomes for both the mothers and their babies. Methods/Design Eligible participants are all NT women with diabetes in pregnancy aged 16 years and over. Information collected includes: standard antenatal clinical information, diagnosis and management of diabetes in pregnancy, socio-economic status, standard clinical birth information (delivery, gestational age, birth weight, adverse antenatal and birth outcomes). Cord blood is collected at the time of delivery and detailed neonatal anthropometric measurements performed within 72 hours of birth. Information will also be collected regarding maternal post-partum glucose tolerance and cardio-metabolic risk factor status, breastfeeding and growth of the baby up to 2 years post-partum in the first instance. Discussion This study will accurately document rates and outcomes of diabetes in pregnancy in the NT of Australia, including the high-risk Indigenous Australian population. The results of this study should contribute to policy and clinical guidelines with the goal of reducing the future risk of obesity and diabetes in both mothers and their offspring. PMID

  10. Land application of sewage sludge (biosolids) in Australia: risks to the environment and food crops.

    PubMed

    Pritchard, D L; Penney, N; McLaughlin, M J; Rigby, H; Schwarz, K

    2010-01-01

    Australia is a large exporter of agricultural products, with producers responsible for a range of quality assurance programs to ensure that food crops