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Sample records for australia monitoring prediction

  1. Predicting the course of AIDS in Australia.

    PubMed

    Solomon, P J; Wilson, S R; Swanson, C E; Cooper, D A

    1990-10-01

    There have been urgent demands for knowledge about the epidemic of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Australia. Accurate predictions are important for efficient allocation and planning of limited health-care resources. Ideal data for this purpose would be reliable knowledge of the past and present incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. However, since the incidence of the infection is unknown predictions can only be based on historical data of the incidence of AIDS. In this article, we show the limitations of such predictions by examining a broad range of mathematical models that successfully track the observed data (1187 cases diagnosed to December 31, 1988). In addition, we describe a simple method for prediction in subgroups where the numbers of cases observed so far are small. Four models representing different forms of departure from the simple exponential model provide the best fits to the Australian AIDS data. Regional variability and a possible effect resulting from the introduction of zidovudine were incorporated into the models. Significant regional variability in the course of the epidemic was observed between New South Wales, Victoria and the rest of the country. For Australia as a whole, the doubling time changed from less than one year before mid 1987 to more than two years after this time. Model fits were improved by fitting the models to just the four years of data from 1985. The models give comparable predictions for the first year (1989) of around 600 new cases. However, by 1993 the predictions vary considerably, ranging from 500 to 2300 new cases. It is predicted that between 3100 and 6700 cases are likely to be diagnosed in Australia between 1989 and 1993. The results from the subgroup prediction demonstrate that when the observed number of cases is small, then the range of predictions for a future time interval is very wide. For reliable long-term predictions that are necessary for public health planning, basic

  2. ECLSS predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.; Chien, Steve A.

    1991-01-01

    On Space Station Freedom (SSF), design iterations have made clear the need to keep the sensor complement small. Along with the unprecendented duration of the mission, it is imperative that decisions regarding placement of sensors be carefully examined and justified during the design phase. In the ECLSS Predictive Monitoring task, we are developing AI-based software to enable design engineers to evaluate alternate sensor configurations. Based on techniques from model-based reasoning and information theory, the software tool makes explicit the quantitative tradeoffs among competing sensor placements, and helps designers explore and justify placement decisions. This work is being applied to the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) testbed at MSFC to assist design personnel in placing sensors for test purposes to evaluate baseline configurations and ultimately to select advanced life support system technologies for evolutionary SSF.

  3. Building a Continental Scale Land Cover Monitoring Framework for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thankappan, Medhavy; Lymburner, Leo; Tan, Peter; McIntyre, Alexis; Curnow, Steven; Lewis, Adam

    2012-04-01

    Land cover information is critical for national reporting and decision making in Australia. A review of information requirements for reporting on national environmental indicators identified the need for consistent land cover information to be compared against a baseline. A Dynamic Land Cover Dataset (DLCD) for Australia has been developed by Geoscience Australia and the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently, to provide a comprehensive and consistent land cover information baseline to enable monitoring and reporting for sustainable farming practices, water resource management, soil erosion, and forests at national and regional scales. The DLCD was produced from the analysis of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data at 250-metre resolution derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the period from 2000 to 2008. The EVI time series data for each pixel was modelled as 12 coefficients based on the statistical, phenological and seasonal characteristics. The time series were then clustered in coefficients spaces and labelled using ancillary information on vegetation and land use at the catchment scale. The accuracy of the DLCD was assessed using field survey data over 25,000 locations provided by vegetation and land management agencies in State and Territory jurisdictions, and by ABARES. The DLCD is seen as the first in a series of steps to build a framework for national land cover monitoring in Australia. A robust methodology to provide annual updates to the DLCD is currently being developed at Geoscience Australia. There is also a growing demand from the user community for land cover information at better spatial resolution than currently available through the DLCD. Global land cover mapping initiatives that rely on Earth observation data offer many opportunities for national and international programs to work in concert and deliver better outcomes by streamlining efforts on development and

  4. HABs Monitoring and Prediction

    EPA Science Inventory

    Monitoring techniques for harmful algal blooms (HABs) vary across temporal and spatial domains. Remote satellite imagery provides information on water quality at relatively broad spatial and lengthy temporal scales. At the other end of the spectrum, local in-situ monitoring tec...

  5. Australia.

    PubMed

    1984-05-01

    This discussion of Australia covers the following: the people, geography, history, government, political conditions, economy, foreign relations and defense, and relations between the US and Australia. In 1983 the population of Australia totaled 15.3 million with an annual growth rate of 1.3%. The infant mortality rate is 9.9/1000 live births with a life expectancy of 74 years. The people of Australia are predominantly of British origin, and their culture and outlook are similar to those of the US. The aboriginal population is estimated to be 1% of the total. Much of Australia's culture is derived from European roots, but distinctive Australian trends have evolved from the environment, aboriginal culture, and the influence of Australia's neighbors. Australia, the world's smallest continent but 1 of the largest nations, is located below the Southeast Asian archipelago and is bounded on the east by the Pacific Ocean and on the west by the Indian Ocean. Most of the continent is a low, irregular plateau. Little is known of Australia before its discovery by Dutch explorers in the 17th century. On January 26, 1788 the Colony of New South Wales was founded and formal proclamation on the site of Sydney followed on February 7. Many of the 1st settlers were convicts. The mid-19th century began a policy of emancipation of convicts and assisted immigration of free people. The 1st federal Parliament was opened at Melbourne in May 1901. Australia passed the Statute of Westminster Adoption Act in 1942, which officially established Australia's complete autonomy in both internal and external affairs. The Commonwealth government was created with a constitution patterned partly on the US constitution. Australia is a fully independent nation within the Commonwealth. The federal Parliament is bicameral, consisting of a Senate and a House of Representatives. At the apex of the court system is the High Court of Australia. The 3 main political groups in Australia are the Liberal Party, the

  6. Australia.

    PubMed

    1984-05-01

    This discussion of Australia covers the following: the people, geography, history, government, political conditions, economy, foreign relations and defense, and relations between the US and Australia. In 1983 the population of Australia totaled 15.3 million with an annual growth rate of 1.3%. The infant mortality rate is 9.9/1000 live births with a life expectancy of 74 years. The people of Australia are predominantly of British origin, and their culture and outlook are similar to those of the US. The aboriginal population is estimated to be 1% of the total. Much of Australia's culture is derived from European roots, but distinctive Australian trends have evolved from the environment, aboriginal culture, and the influence of Australia's neighbors. Australia, the world's smallest continent but 1 of the largest nations, is located below the Southeast Asian archipelago and is bounded on the east by the Pacific Ocean and on the west by the Indian Ocean. Most of the continent is a low, irregular plateau. Little is known of Australia before its discovery by Dutch explorers in the 17th century. On January 26, 1788 the Colony of New South Wales was founded and formal proclamation on the site of Sydney followed on February 7. Many of the 1st settlers were convicts. The mid-19th century began a policy of emancipation of convicts and assisted immigration of free people. The 1st federal Parliament was opened at Melbourne in May 1901. Australia passed the Statute of Westminster Adoption Act in 1942, which officially established Australia's complete autonomy in both internal and external affairs. The Commonwealth government was created with a constitution patterned partly on the US constitution. Australia is a fully independent nation within the Commonwealth. The federal Parliament is bicameral, consisting of a Senate and a House of Representatives. At the apex of the court system is the High Court of Australia. The 3 main political groups in Australia are the Liberal Party, the

  7. Monitoring drug markets in the Internet age and the evolution of drug monitoring systems in Australia.

    PubMed

    Burns, Lucy; Roxburgh, Amanda; Bruno, Raimondo; Van Buskirk, Joe

    2014-01-01

    In Australia, drug monitoring systems have been in place for more than a decade allowing for the measurement of ongoing trends in drug use and the detection of new drugs. The Drug Trends Unit at the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre monitors drugs through four separate systems. The Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS) measures the price, purity, and availability of drugs that are primarily injected. The Ecstasy and Related Drugs Reporting System (EDRS) monitors psychostimulants that are used recreationally. The National Illicit Drugs Indicator Project (NIDIP) analyzes indicator data including drug-related hospitalizations and deaths. Finally, the Drugs and Emerging Technologies Project (DNeT) analyzes the role of the Internet in the procurement and use of novel psychoactive substances. This paper provides an overview of each component of the system, demonstrating how the system has evolved over time.

  8. Monitoring drug markets in the Internet age and the evolution of drug monitoring systems in Australia.

    PubMed

    Burns, Lucy; Roxburgh, Amanda; Bruno, Raimondo; Van Buskirk, Joe

    2014-01-01

    In Australia, drug monitoring systems have been in place for more than a decade allowing for the measurement of ongoing trends in drug use and the detection of new drugs. The Drug Trends Unit at the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre monitors drugs through four separate systems. The Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS) measures the price, purity, and availability of drugs that are primarily injected. The Ecstasy and Related Drugs Reporting System (EDRS) monitors psychostimulants that are used recreationally. The National Illicit Drugs Indicator Project (NIDIP) analyzes indicator data including drug-related hospitalizations and deaths. Finally, the Drugs and Emerging Technologies Project (DNeT) analyzes the role of the Internet in the procurement and use of novel psychoactive substances. This paper provides an overview of each component of the system, demonstrating how the system has evolved over time. PMID:24574080

  9. Monitoring the Galactic Centre with the Australia Telescope Compact Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkar, A.; Eckart, A.; Straubmeier, C.; Kunneriath, D.; Jalali, B.; Sabha, N.; Shahzamanian, B.; García-Marín, M.; Valencia-S, M.; Sjouwerman, L.; Britzen, S.; Karas, V.; Dovčiak, M.; Donea, A.; Zensus, A.

    2016-05-01

    The supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), at the centre of the Milky Way undergoes regular flaring activity, which is thought to arise from the innermost region of the accretion flow. Between 2010 and 2014, we performed monitoring observations of the Galactic Centre to study the flux-density variations at 3 mm using the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). We obtain light curves of Sgr A* by subtracting the contributions from the extended emission around it, and the elevation and time-dependent gains of the telescope. We perform structure function analysis and the Bayesian blocks representation to detect flare events. The observations detect six instances of significant variability in the flux density of Sgr A* in three observations, with variations between 0.5 and 1.0 Jy, which last for 1.5-3 h. We use the adiabatically expanding plasmon model to explain the short time-scale variations in the flux density. We derive the physical quantities of the modelled flare emission, such as the source expansion speed vexp, source sizes, spectral indices and the turnover frequency. These parameters imply that the expanding source components are either confined to the immediate vicinity of Sgr A* by contributing to the corona or the disc, or have a bulk motion greater than vexp. No exceptional flux-density variation on short flare time-scales was observed during the approach and the flyby of the dusty S-cluster object (DSO/G2). This is consistent with its compactness and the absence of a large bow shock.

  10. Australia.

    PubMed

    1989-03-01

    The smallest continent and one of the largest countries, Australia is a country of diverse geographical conditions and differing cultures of people unified by one predominant language and political system. Mountains, desert and rivers are some of the varying landscape features of Australia, although the climate and condition for most of the country is tropical. Original Australians, a hunting-gathering people called Aborigines, came to Australia over 38,000 years ago. Today the Aborigines compose about 1% of the population and live in traditional tribal areas as well as cities. The 1st European settlement came in 1788 from Great Britain. After World War II, the population doubled. Although the population is primarily composed of British and Irish immigrants, immigrants from other European countries such as Italy and Greece as well as refugees from Indochina, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are a significant factor to the growing Australian population. Australian and Aboriginal culture has took hold and took notice in the areas of opera, art, literature and film. The Australian Commonwealth is based on a constitution similar to that of the United States government. The National Parliament is bicameral with both the Senate and the House of Representatives having a select number of elected officials from each state and territory. The Australian economy is predominantly reliant on the sale of mineral and agricultural exports. History, economic changes, defense, international relations and notes to the traveler are also discussed in this overview of Australia. PMID:12177993

  11. Australia.

    PubMed

    1989-03-01

    The smallest continent and one of the largest countries, Australia is a country of diverse geographical conditions and differing cultures of people unified by one predominant language and political system. Mountains, desert and rivers are some of the varying landscape features of Australia, although the climate and condition for most of the country is tropical. Original Australians, a hunting-gathering people called Aborigines, came to Australia over 38,000 years ago. Today the Aborigines compose about 1% of the population and live in traditional tribal areas as well as cities. The 1st European settlement came in 1788 from Great Britain. After World War II, the population doubled. Although the population is primarily composed of British and Irish immigrants, immigrants from other European countries such as Italy and Greece as well as refugees from Indochina, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are a significant factor to the growing Australian population. Australian and Aboriginal culture has took hold and took notice in the areas of opera, art, literature and film. The Australian Commonwealth is based on a constitution similar to that of the United States government. The National Parliament is bicameral with both the Senate and the House of Representatives having a select number of elected officials from each state and territory. The Australian economy is predominantly reliant on the sale of mineral and agricultural exports. History, economic changes, defense, international relations and notes to the traveler are also discussed in this overview of Australia.

  12. Seasonal Dynamical Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spillman, C. M.; Alves, O.

    2009-05-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is now recognised as the primary cause of mass coral bleaching events. Coral bleaching occurs during times of stress, particularly when SSTs exceed the coral colony's tolerance level. Global warming is potentially a serious threat to the future of the world's reef systems with predictions by the international community that bleaching will increase in both frequency and severity. Advance warning of anomalous sea surface temperatures, and thus potential bleaching events, would allow for the implementation of management strategies to minimise reef damage. Seasonal SST forecasts from the coupled ocean-atmosphere model POAMA (Bureau of Meteorology) have skill in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) several months into the future. We will present model forecasts and probabilistic products for use in reef management, and assess model skill in the region. These products will revolutionise the way in which coral bleaching events are monitored and assessed in the Great Barrier Reef and Australian region.

  13. Monitoring International Interest in Transnational Academic Mobility to Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, John L.

    2011-01-01

    This research examines the issue of transnational academic mobility of academic staff looking at potential moves to higher education institutions in Australia. By establishing a web-based portal, attracting interested parties from around the world with information about Australian universities and subsequent career opportunities, web analytics are…

  14. Prediction and monitoring of volcanic activities

    SciTech Connect

    Sudradjat, A.

    1986-07-01

    This paper summarizes the state of the art for predicting and monitoring volcanic activities, and it emphasizes the experience obtained by the Volcanological Survey Indonesia for active volcanoes. The limited available funds, the large number of active volcanoes to monitor, and the high population density of the volcanic area are the main problems encountered. Seven methods of volcano monitoring are applied to the active volcanoes of Indonesia: seismicity, ground deformation, gravity and magnetic studies, self-potential studies, petrochemistry, gas monitoring, and visual observation. Seismic monitoring augmented by gas monitoring has proven to be effective, particularly for predicting individual eruptions at the after-initial phase. However, the success of the prediction depends on the characteristics of each volcano. In general, the initial eruption phase is the most difficult phenomenon to predict. The preparation of hazard maps and the continuous awareness of the volcanic eruption are the most practical ways to mitigate volcanic danger.

  15. Prediction of Bluetongue virus seropositivity on pastoral properties in northern Australia using remotely sensed bioclimatic variables.

    PubMed

    Klingseisen, Bernhard; Stevenson, Mark; Corner, Robert

    2013-06-01

    To monitor Bluetongue virus (BTV) activity in northern and eastern Australia the National Arbovirus Monitoring Program (NAMP) collects data from a network of sentinel herds. Groups of young cattle, previously unexposed to infection, are regularly tested to detect evidence of seroconversion. While this approach has been successful in fulfilling international surveillance requirements, it is labour and cost intensive and operationally challenging in the remote area of the northern Australian rangelands. The aim of this study was to assess the suitability of remotely sensed data as a means for predicting the distribution of BTV seroprevalence. For the period 2000-2009, bioclimatic variables were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data products for the entire Northern Territory. A generalised linear model, based on the seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and minimum land surface temperature, was developed to predict BTV seropositivity. The odds of seropositivity in locations with NDVI estimates >0.45 was 3.90 (95% CI 1.11 to 13.7) times that of locations where NDVI estimates were between 0 and 0.45. Unit increases in minimum night land surface temperature in the previous winter increased the odds of seropositivity by a factor of 1.40 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.91). The area under a Receiver Operator Characteristic curve generated on the basis of the model predictions was 0.8. Uncertainty in the model's predictions was attributed to the spatio-temporal inconsistency in the precision of the available serosurveillance data. The discriminatory ability of models of this type could be improved by ensuring that exact location details and date of NAMP BTV test events are consistently recorded.

  16. Prediction of Bluetongue virus seropositivity on pastoral properties in northern Australia using remotely sensed bioclimatic variables.

    PubMed

    Klingseisen, Bernhard; Stevenson, Mark; Corner, Robert

    2013-06-01

    To monitor Bluetongue virus (BTV) activity in northern and eastern Australia the National Arbovirus Monitoring Program (NAMP) collects data from a network of sentinel herds. Groups of young cattle, previously unexposed to infection, are regularly tested to detect evidence of seroconversion. While this approach has been successful in fulfilling international surveillance requirements, it is labour and cost intensive and operationally challenging in the remote area of the northern Australian rangelands. The aim of this study was to assess the suitability of remotely sensed data as a means for predicting the distribution of BTV seroprevalence. For the period 2000-2009, bioclimatic variables were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data products for the entire Northern Territory. A generalised linear model, based on the seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and minimum land surface temperature, was developed to predict BTV seropositivity. The odds of seropositivity in locations with NDVI estimates >0.45 was 3.90 (95% CI 1.11 to 13.7) times that of locations where NDVI estimates were between 0 and 0.45. Unit increases in minimum night land surface temperature in the previous winter increased the odds of seropositivity by a factor of 1.40 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.91). The area under a Receiver Operator Characteristic curve generated on the basis of the model predictions was 0.8. Uncertainty in the model's predictions was attributed to the spatio-temporal inconsistency in the precision of the available serosurveillance data. The discriminatory ability of models of this type could be improved by ensuring that exact location details and date of NAMP BTV test events are consistently recorded. PMID:23276403

  17. Designing optimal greenhouse gas monitoring networks for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziehn, T.; Law, R. M.; Rayner, P. J.; Roff, G.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric transport inversion is commonly used to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) flux estimates from concentration measurements. The optimal location of ground-based observing stations that supply these measurements can be determined by network design. Here, we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) in reverse mode together with a Bayesian inverse modelling framework to derive optimal GHG observing networks for Australia. This extends the network design for carbon dioxide (CO2) performed by Ziehn et al. (2014) to also minimise the uncertainty on the flux estimates for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both individually and in a combined network using multiple objectives. Optimal networks are generated by adding up to five new stations to the base network, which is defined as two existing stations, Cape Grim and Gunn Point, in southern and northern Australia respectively. The individual networks for CO2, CH4 and N2O and the combined observing network show large similarities because the flux uncertainties for each GHG are dominated by regions of biologically productive land. There is little penalty, in terms of flux uncertainty reduction, for the combined network compared to individually designed networks. The location of the stations in the combined network is sensitive to variations in the assumed data uncertainty across locations. A simple assessment of economic costs has been included in our network design approach, considering both establishment and maintenance costs. Our results suggest that, while site logistics change the optimal network, there is only a small impact on the flux uncertainty reductions achieved with increasing network size.

  18. Perceived coping & concern predict terrorism preparedness in Australia

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In the aftermath of major terrorist incidents research shows population shifts towards protective behaviours, including specific preparedness and avoidance responses. Less is known about individual preparedness in populations with high assumed threat but limited direct exposure, such as Australia. In this study we aimed to determine whether individuals with high perceived coping and higher concern would show greater preparedness to respond to terrorism threats. Methods Adults in New South Wales (NSW) completed terrorism perception and response questions as part of computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) in 2010 (N=2038). Responses were weighted against the NSW population. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between personal coping/concern factors and terrorism-related preparedness and avoidance behaviours, and to control for potential confounders such as socio-demographic and threat perception factors. Results Increased vigilance for suspicious behaviours was the most commonly reported behavioural response to perceived terrorism threat. Multivariate analyses showed that the factor combination of high perceived coping and higher concern was the most consistent predictor of terrorism preparedness behaviours and evacuation intentions, including increased vigilance (Adjusted Odd Ratios (AOR)=2.07, p=0.001) learning evacuation plans (AOR=1.61, p=0.05), establishing emergency contact plans (AOR=2.73, p<0.001), willingness to evacuate homes (AOR=2.20, p=0.039), and willingness to evacuate workplaces or public facilities (AOR=6.19, p=0.015) during potential future incidents. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that terrorism preparedness behaviours are strongly associated with perceived high coping but that this relationship is also mediated by personal concerns relating to this threat. Cognitive variables such as coping self-efficacy are increasingly targeted as part of natural hazard preparedness

  19. Improving Climate Prediction By Climate Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroy, S. S.; Redaelli, G.; Grassi, B.

    2014-12-01

    Various climate agencies are pursuing concepts of space-based atmospheric monitoring based on ideas of empirically verifiable accuracy in observations. Anticipating that atmospheric monitoring systems based in observing the emitted longwave spectrum, the reflected shortwave spectrum, and radio occultation are implemented, we seek to discover how long-term records in these quantities might be used to improve our ability to predict climate change. This is a follow-up to a previous study that found that climate monitoring by remote sensing better informs climate prediction than does climate monitoring in situ. We have used the output of a CMIP5 historical scenario to hind-cast observation types being considered for space-based atmospheric monitoring to modify ensemble prediction of multi-decadal climate change produced by a CMIP5 future scenario. Specifically, we have considered spatial fingerprints of 1970­-2005 averages and trends in hind-cast observations to improve global average surface air temperature change from 2005 to 2100. Correlations between hind-cast observations at individual locations on the globe and multi-decadal change are generally consistent with a null-correlation distribution. We have found that the modes in inter-model differences in hind-casts are clearly identified with tropical clouds, but only Arctic warming as can be identified in radio occultation observations correlates with multi-decadal change, but only with 80% confidence. Understanding how long-term monitoring can be used to improve climate prediction remains an unsolved problem, but it is anticipated that improving climate prediction will depend strongly on an ability to distinguish between climate forcing and climate response in remotely sensed observables.

  20. Predicting adolescent breakfast consumption in the UK and Australia using an extended theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Mullan, Barbara; Wong, Cara; Kothe, Emily

    2013-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) with the addition of risk awareness could predict breakfast consumption in a sample of adolescents from the UK and Australia. It was hypothesised that the TPB variables of attitudes, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control (PBC) would significantly predict intentions, and that inclusion of risk perception would increase the proportion of variance explained. Secondly it was hypothesised that intention and PBC would predict behaviour. Participants were recruited from secondary schools in Australia and the UK. A total of 613 participants completed the study (448 females, 165 males; mean=14years ±1.1). The TPB predicted 42.2% of the variance in intentions to eat breakfast. All variables significantly predicted intention with PBC as the strongest component. The addition of risk made a small but significant contribution to the prediction of intention. Together intention and PBC predicted 57.8% of the variance in breakfast consumption. PMID:23219456

  1. Long-term marine litter monitoring in the remote Great Australian Bight, South Australia.

    PubMed

    Edyvane, K S; Dalgetty, A; Hone, P W; Higham, J S; Wace, N M

    2004-06-01

    The Anxious Bay beach litter clearance is the longest running annual survey of ocean-based litter in Australia. It's remoteness from centres of human population and location (with respect to prevailing winds and currents) make it an ideal place for monitoring ocean or ship-based litter in Australia's southern oceans and particularly, the Great Australian Bight. Over the 1991-1999 period, a large but gradual decline in the amount of beach washed litter was recorded (with minor peaks recorded during the 1992 and 1994 surveys). Beach washed litter decreased by approximately 86%, from 344 kg recorded in 1991 (13.2 kg/km) to 49 kg in 1999 (i.e. 1.9 kg/km), reaching a maximum of 390 kg in 1992 (or 15 kg/km of beach). However, a sharp increase in litter was recorded in 2000 (i.e. 252 kg or 9.7 kg/km). This increase in litter yield in 2000 is probably due to stronger than average onshore surface flow (or Ekman Transport) in the western Eyre Peninsula and Bight region. Prior to the survey in 2000, the results appeared to indicate that ocean litter on Anxious Bay beach was beginning to level out at around 50-70 kg/year (i.e. 2-3 kg/km). As the beach surveys involve the assumption that the beach is completely cleared of litter, this may represent a baseline level for ocean-based litter in the region. The yields and type of litter collected from the annual survey indicates that the majority of litter washed ashore originates from commercial fishing activities within the Great Australian Bight. Most of the fishing-related litter was directly sourced to the Southern Rock Lobster Fishery (i.e. bait buckets, baskets, pots), the Great Australian Bight Trawl Fishery (i.e. codends, trawl nets) and the Southern Shark Fishery (i.e. monofilament gillnets and longlines). Between 1994 and 1999, large reductions were observed in the amount of bait straps (77% reduction), lobster bait baskets/buckets (86% reduction), nets/ropes (62% reduction) and floats/buoys (83% reduction). Significantly

  2. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

    PubMed

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe. PMID:25977759

  3. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

    PubMed

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.

  4. [Prediction and monitoring of severe acute pancreatitis].

    PubMed

    Gürlich, R; Maruna, P; Spicák, J

    2006-01-01

    Twenty to thirty percent patients with acute pancreatitis develop severe acute pancreatitis with high mortality and morbidity rate. Markers of severity of acute pancreatitis are clinically important for the early diagnosis of complications. We reviewed the literature for markers of acute pancreatitis. On their relevance for prediction of severe pancreatitis are given. Several markers can predict severe cases of acute pancreatitis with a different positive and negative predictive value. Useful predictors of severity may include serum procalcitonin and urinary trypsinogen activation peptide at the admission, serum interleukins-6 and -8 at 24 h, and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) in 48 hours interval. The valuable marker for daily monitoring appears to be serum procalcitonin.

  5. Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

  6. Prediction of beef eating quality in France using the Meat Standards Australia system.

    PubMed

    Legrand, I; Hocquette, J-F; Polkinghorne, R J; Pethick, D W

    2013-03-01

    An experiment was set up for (i) comparing Australian and French consumer preferences to beef and to (ii) quantify how well the Meat Standards Australia (MSA) grading model could predict the eating quality of beef in France. Six muscles from 18 Australian and 18 French cattle were tested as paired samples. In France, steaks were grilled 'medium' or 'rare', whereas in Australia 'medium' cooking was used. In total, 360 French consumers took part in the 'medium' cooking test, with each eating half Australian beef and half French beef and 180 French consumers tested the 'rare' beef. Consumers scored steaks for tenderness (tn), juiciness (ju), flavour liking (fl) and overall liking (ov). They also assigned a quality rating to each sample: 'unsatisfactory', 'satisfactory everyday quality' (3*), 'better than everyday quality' (4*) or 'premium quality' (5*). The prediction of the final ratings (3*, 4*, 5*) by the French consumers using the MSA-weighted eating quality score (0.3 tn + 0.1 ju + 0.3 fl + 0.3 ov) was over 70%, which is at least similar to the Australian experience. The boundaries between 'unsatisfactory', 3*, 4* and 5* were found to be ca. 38, 61 and 80, respectively. The differences between extreme classes are therefore slightly more important in France than in Australia. On average, even though it does not have predictive equations for bull meat, the mean predicted scores calculated by the MSA model deviated from observed values by a maximum of 5 points on a 0 to 100 scale except for the Australian oyster blade and the French topside, rump and outside (deviating by <15). Overall, the data indicate that it would be possible to manage a grading system in France as there is high agreement and consistency across consumers. The 'rare' and 'medium' results are also very similar, indicating that a common set of weightings and cut-offs can be employed.

  7. Monitoring temporal changes in use of two cathinones in a large urban catchment in Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Thai, Phong K; Lai, Foon Yin; Edirisinghe, Methsiri; Hall, Wayne; Bruno, Raimondo; O'Brien, Jake W; Prichard, Jeremy; Kirkbride, K Paul; Mueller, Jochen F

    2016-03-01

    Wastewater analysis was used to examine prevalence and temporal trends in the use of two cathinones, methylone and mephedrone, in an urban population (>200,000 people) in South East Queensland, Australia. Wastewater samples were collected from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant that serviced the catchment from 2011 to 2013. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to measure mephedrone and methylone in wastewater sample using direct injection mode. Mephedrone was not detected in any samples while methylone was detected in 45% of the samples. Daily mass loads of methylone were normalized to the population and used to evaluate methylone use in the catchment. Methylone mass loads peaked in 2012 but there was no clear temporal trend over the monitoring period. The prevalence of methylone use in the catchment was associated with the use of MDMA, the more popular analogue of methylone, as indicated by other complementary sources. Methylone use was stable in the study catchment during the monitoring period whereas mephedrone use has been declining after its peak in 2010. More research is needed on the pharmacokinetics of emerging illicit drugs to improve the applicability of wastewater analysis in monitoring their use in the population. PMID:26747989

  8. Monthly prediction of air temperature in Australia and New Zealand with machine learning algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Deo, R. C.; Carro-Calvo, L.; Saavedra-Moreno, B.

    2016-07-01

    Long-term air temperature prediction is of major importance in a large number of applications, including climate-related studies, energy, agricultural, or medical. This paper examines the performance of two Machine Learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP)) in a problem of monthly mean air temperature prediction, from the previous measured values in observational stations of Australia and New Zealand, and climate indices of importance in the region. The performance of the two considered algorithms is discussed in the paper and compared to alternative approaches. The results indicate that the SVR algorithm is able to obtain the best prediction performance among all the algorithms compared in the paper. Moreover, the results obtained have shown that the mean absolute error made by the two algorithms considered is significantly larger for the last 20 years than in the previous decades, in what can be interpreted as a change in the relationship among the prediction variables involved in the training of the algorithms.

  9. A future geodetic monitoring system for vertical land motion in the Perth basin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filmer, Mick; Featherstone, Will; Morgan, Linda; Schenk, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    SAR imagery. The InSAR component is necessary to avoid reliance on discrete monitoring stations and to provide larger scale mapping of the subsidence. As the framework for an ongoing monitoring programme, images are being acquired from the German Aerospace Centre's (DLR's) TerraSAR-X satellite mission under a collaborative science project among Geoscience Australia, Curtin University of Technology, Landgate and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. This programme initially covers ~13 months (up to 30 images) and will provide sufficient data to lay the foundation for ongoing monitoring. This monitoring programme will be used to determine linear and non-linear VLM in Perth at time scales ranging from seasonal to long term over multiple years.

  10. Radon monitoring and hazard prediction in Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elio, Javier; Crowley, Quentin; Scanlon, Ray; Hodgson, Jim; Cooper, Mark; Long, Stephanie

    2016-04-01

    Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas which forms as a decay product from uranium. It is the largest source of natural ionizing radiation affecting the global population. When radon is inhaled, its short-lived decay products can interact with lung tissue leading to DNA damage and development of lung cancer. Ireland has among the highest levels of radon in Europe and eighth highest of an OECD survey of 29 countries. Every year some two hundred and fifty cases of lung cancer in Ireland are linked to radon exposure. This new research project will build upon previous efforts of radon monitoring in Ireland to construct a high-resolution radon hazard map. This will be achieved using recently available high-resolution airborne gamma-ray spectrometry (radiometric) and soil geochemistry data (http://www.tellus.ie/), indoor radon concentrations (http://www.epa.ie/radiation), and new direct measurement of soil radon. In this regard, legacy indoor radon concentrations will be correlated with soil U and Th concentrations and other geogenic data. This is a new approach since the vast majority of countries with a national radon monitoring programme rely on indoor radon measurements, or have a spatially limited dataset of soil radon measurements. Careful attention will be given to areas where an indicative high radon hazard based on geogenic factors does not match high indoor radon concentrations. Where such areas exist, it may imply that some parameter(s) in the predictive model does not match that of the environment. These areas will be subjected to measurement of radon soil gas using a combination of time averaged (passive) and time dependant (active) measurements in order to better understand factors affecting production, transport and accumulation of radon in the natural environment. Such mapping of radon-prone areas will ultimately help to inform when prevention and remediation measures are necessary, reducing the radon exposure of the population. Therefore, given

  11. Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Cook, David C.; Liu, Shuang; Edwards, Jacqueline; Villalta, Oscar N.; Aurambout, Jean-Philippe; Kriticos, Darren J.; Drenth, Andre; De Barro, Paul J.

    2012-01-01

    Benefit cost analysis is a tried and tested analytical framework that can clearly communicate likely net changes in producer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficult to predict policy benefits over time due to complex biophysical interactions between invasive species, their hosts, and the environment. In this paper, we demonstrate how a break-even style benefit cost analysis remains highly relevant to biosecurity decision-makers using the example of banana bunchy top virus, a plant pathogen targeted for eradication from banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of possible future incursion scenarios, we predict the exclusion benefits of the disease will avoid Aus$15.9-27.0 million in annual losses for the banana industry. For these exclusion benefits to be reduced to zero would require a bunchy top re-establishment event in commercial banana plantations three years in every four. Sensitivity analysis indicates that exclusion benefits can be greatly enhanced through improvements in disease surveillance and incursion response. PMID:22879960

  12. Monitoring contrasting land management in the savanna landscapes of northern Australia.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Donald C; Petty, Aaron M; Williamson, Grant J; Brook, Barry W; Bowman, David M J S

    2008-04-01

    We compared measures of ecosystem state across six adjacent land-tenure groups in the intact tropical savanna landscapes of northern Australia. Tenure groups include two managed by Aboriginal owners, two national parks, a cluster of pastoral leases, and a military training area. This information is of relevance to the debate about the role of indigenous lands in the Australian conservation estate. The timing and frequency of fire was determined by satellite imagery; the biomass and composition of the herb-layer and the abundance of large feral herbivores by field surveys; and weediness by analysis of a Herbarium database. European tenures varied greatly in fire frequencies but were consistently burnt earlier in the dry season than the two Aboriginal tenures, the latter having intermediate fire frequencies. Weeds were more frequent in the European tenures, whilst feral animals were most abundant in the Aboriginal tenures. This variation strongly implies a signature of current management and/or recent environmental history. We identify indices suitable for monitoring of management outcomes in an extensive and sparsely populated landscape. Aboriginal land offers a unique opportunity for the conservation of biodiversity through the maintenance of traditional fire regimes. However, without financial support, traditional practices may prove unsustainable both economically and because exotic weeds and feral animals will alter fire regimes. An additional return on investment in Aboriginal land management is likely to be improved livelihoods and health outcomes for these disadvantaged communities.

  13. Monitoring Contrasting Land Management in the Savanna Landscapes of Northern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franklin, Donald C.; Petty, Aaron M.; Williamson, Grant J.; Brook, Barry W.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

    2008-04-01

    We compared measures of ecosystem state across six adjacent land-tenure groups in the intact tropical savanna landscapes of northern Australia. Tenure groups include two managed by Aboriginal owners, two national parks, a cluster of pastoral leases, and a military training area. This information is of relevance to the debate about the role of indigenous lands in the Australian conservation estate. The timing and frequency of fire was determined by satellite imagery; the biomass and composition of the herb-layer and the abundance of large feral herbivores by field surveys; and weediness by analysis of a Herbarium database. European tenures varied greatly in fire frequencies but were consistently burnt earlier in the dry season than the two Aboriginal tenures, the latter having intermediate fire frequencies. Weeds were more frequent in the European tenures, whilst feral animals were most abundant in the Aboriginal tenures. This variation strongly implies a signature of current management and/or recent environmental history. We identify indices suitable for monitoring of management outcomes in an extensive and sparsely populated landscape. Aboriginal land offers a unique opportunity for the conservation of biodiversity through the maintenance of traditional fire regimes. However, without financial support, traditional practices may prove unsustainable both economically and because exotic weeds and feral animals will alter fire regimes. An additional return on investment in Aboriginal land management is likely to be improved livelihoods and health outcomes for these disadvantaged communities.

  14. Real Time Monitoring of an Injection Test for an Enhanced Geothermal Reservoir, Paralana, South Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peacock, J.; Thiel, S.; Heinson, G. S.; Reid, P.

    2011-12-01

    Real-time monitoring of changes in subsurface material properties proves valuable in many geophysical aplications where fluids are present, including ground water, geothermal, CO2 sequestration, unconventional gas, and more. Reservoir stimulation typically includes pumping high pressure fluids into tight lithology with the intention of creating or extending the reservior. Unfortunately, the fracturing process and reservoir extension is not always predictable. Therefore, real time monitoring needs to be employed to better understand the system. Electromagnetic methods can exploit the large dynamic range of electrical conductivity from the surface, specifically the magnetotelluric (MT) can measure conductivity contrasts as a function of depth and time. Presented is an example of real-time monitoring of an enhanced geothermal system injection test at around 4~km depth using 11 MT stations with a remote reference. Its found that changes in the MT response are small, on the order of a few percent, but correlate with earthquake clusters measured by a micro-seismic array.

  15. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  16. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations the CSIRO (Australia) monitoring program from aircraft 1972 - 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Beardsmore, D.J.; Pearman, G.I.

    1984-09-01

    Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations were measured in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Australia-New Zealand region and as far south as Antarctica for the period 1972-1981. The samples were collected from aircraft over a large range of latitudes and altitudes. The sampling program has been based on the cooperation of the Australia Department of Transport, Quantas Airways, Trans Australia Airlines, the United States, New Zealand and Australian Air Forces and occasional chartering of light aircraft for special purposes.

  17. Predicting Cereal Root Disease in Western Australia Using Soil DNA and Environmental Parameters.

    PubMed

    Poole, Grant J; Harries, Martin; Hüberli, D; Miyan, S; MacLeod, W J; Lawes, Roger; McKay, A

    2015-08-01

    Root diseases have long been prevalent in Australian grain-growing regions, and most management decisions to reduce the risk of yield loss need to be implemented before the crop is sown. The levels of pathogens that cause the major root diseases can be measured using DNA-based services such as PreDicta B. Although these pathogens are often studied individually, in the field they often occur as mixed populations and their combined effect on crop production is likely to vary across diverse cropping environments. A 3-year survey was conducted covering most cropping regions in Western Australia, utilizing PreDicta B to determine soilborne pathogen levels and visual assessments to score root health and incidence of individual crop root diseases caused by the major root pathogens, including Rhizoctonia solani (anastomosis group [AG]-8), Gaeumannomyces graminis var. tritici (take-all), Fusarium pseudograminearum, and Pratylenchus spp. (root-lesion nematodes) on wheat roots for 115, 50, and 94 fields during 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. A predictive model was developed for root health utilizing autumn and summer rainfall and soil temperature parameters. The model showed that pathogen DNA explained 16, 5, and 2% of the variation in root health whereas environmental parameters explained 22, 11, and 1% of the variation in 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. Results showed that R. solani AG-8 soil pathogen DNA, environmental soil temperature, and rainfall parameters explained most of the variation in the root health. This research shows that interactions between environment and pathogen levels before seeding can be utilized in predictive models to improve assessment of risk from root diseases to assist growers to plan more profitable cropping programs.

  18. A model to predict CWD residence times in tropical forests along an altitudinal gradient in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torello-Raventos, Mireia; Ford, Andrew; Saiz, Gus; Bloomfield, Keith; Lloyd, Jon; Bird, Michael

    2014-05-01

    More reliable knowledge on the complex responses of vegetation to climate change is one of the most urgent needs for tropical forest preservation and recent data models indicate an increase of tree mortality in tropical forests as a consequence of climate change1. Coarse woody debris dynamics in tropical forests remain poorly understood2. Tropical forests are known for possessing a wide range of wood densities- with different wood traits and secondary wood chemical components-, adding complexity to the accurate estimations of coarse woody debris residence times (τ). Quantifying τ in these ecosystems along an altitudinal gradient provides a way to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics in the face of climate change. This study examines τ from different tree tropical forest species -ranging from soft to hardwoods- and under different decay status, to understand the effects of climate on the chemical and physical decay of CWD on an elevation gradient from 102 m above sea level (MAT = 23.7° C) to 1500 m above sea level (MAT = 16.7° C) in Australia. Wood density together with Carbon:Nitrogen ratio enabled prediction of the variation in τ between decay classes within tree species, between tree species and along the elevation gradient. τ increased with decreasing the decay status, increasing wood density and temperature also played an important role as τ increased with increasing site elevation. The study also highlighted the importance of including seasonal variation of climate in short term field studies, as a single wet season reduced the τ of the CWD compared to τ after a year of exposure. Intraspecific variation of plant traits and secondary wood chemicals explained the observed range in τ for species with similar wood densities, decreasing with increasing decayed status of the samples. This study will aid in the development of predictive relationships between wood density and environmental variables to infer carbon dynamics at local and global scale

  19. Predictive emission monitoring successfully replaces CEMS in gas turbine applications

    SciTech Connect

    1996-03-01

    As more and more regulations require enhanced monitoring of stack emissions, a number of industries are turning from conventional continuous emission monitoring systems (CEMS) to predictive emission monitoring systems (PEMS). PEMS typically cost less to install and operate than CEMS, and they frequently offer a number of additional advantages, including low maintenance and high reliability. The advantages of PEMS are discussed in this paper. 1 ref., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  20. Sensitivity analysis of numerical weather prediction radiative schemes to forecast direct solar radiation over Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukkavilli, S. K.; Kay, M. J.; Taylor, R.; Prasad, A. A.; Troccoli, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) project requires forecasting timeframes which range from nowcasting to long-term forecasts (minutes to two years). As concentrating solar power (CSP) plant operators are one of the key stakeholders in the national energy market, research and development enhancements for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is a major subtask. This project involves comparing different radiative scheme codes to improve day ahead DNI forecasts on the national supercomputing infrastructure running mesoscale simulations on NOAA's Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model. ASEFS also requires aerosol data fusion for improving accurate representation of spatio-temporally variable atmospheric aerosols to reduce DNI bias error in clear sky conditions over southern Queensland & New South Wales where solar power is vulnerable to uncertainities from frequent aerosol radiative events such as bush fires and desert dust. Initial results from thirteen years of Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) deseasonalised DNI and MODIS NASA-Terra aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies demonstrated strong negative correlations in north and southeast Australia along with strong variability in AOD (~0.03-0.05). Radiative transfer schemes, DNI and AOD anomaly correlations will be discussed for the population and transmission grid centric regions where current and planned CSP plants dispatch electricity to capture peak prices in the market. Aerosol and solar irradiance datasets include satellite and ground based assimilations from the national BOM, regional aerosol researchers and agencies. The presentation will provide an overview of this ASEFS project task on WRF and results to date. The overall goal of this ASEFS subtask is to develop a hybrid numerical weather prediction (NWP) and statistical/machine learning multi-model ensemble strategy that meets future operational requirements of CSP plant operators.

  1. Time-lapse Geophysical Monitoring of the Subsurface Hydrology at Kings Park, Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adekoya, Tunde; McGrath, Gavan; Leopold, Matthias; Shragge, Jeffrey; Challis, Anthea; Stevens, Jason; Miller, Ben

    2015-04-01

    The increasing occurrence of drought stress throughout Southwestern Western Australia is postulated to have contributed to the decline of Banksia populations both in Kings Park, Perth, and in the Banksia woodlands in the greater Swan Coastal Plain region. To help quantify these assertions, there is an urgent need to better understand the base levels of soil moisture content - as well as seasonal variations thereof - in these geographical regions. We conducted time-lapse (TL) electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods on a monthly basis (May-August 2014). In addition, at each site we hand-augured test holes to a depth of 3-4 m and collected samples at 20-cm intervals to enable grain-size analysis, soil moisture content and water retention tests. PR2 capacitance probe measurements were also acquired when augering to enable a moisture content comparison study. The acquired TL ERT datasets were inverted using 2D EarthImager software and the temporal variations in resistivity were interpreted in terms of changes in moisture content. The TL ERT data reveal significant calendar variations in the spatial distribution of moisture content. The TL ERT inversions also detected isolated less resistive lithologies and the depth to groundwater. Processed TL GPR data were interpreted to show vertical variations in the vadose zone moisture content. The water content variations were consistent with the rainfall data. The grain-size distributions of the samples were analysed statistically. The apparent resistivity values from the analysed samples and observed volumetric water content are strongly correlated (R2=0.84) as may be expected from Archie's law. Soil moisture content analysis results including the PR2 probe measurements were plotted as a function of depth, the result shows vertical variations in moisture content with depth. The hydrological tests indicated the properties of the subsurface lithologies and confirm the responses of the

  2. Monitoring and modelling walking track impacts in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Grant; Hawes, Martin; McPherson, Glen

    2004-07-01

    A program has been developed for monitoring the condition of unimproved walking tracks on a 1000-km track system in Western Tasmania, and it has been used as the basis of an eight-year study of track-impact development. The monitoring technique involves measuring track depth and two track-width indicators at permanently marked and widely dispersed sites, each site comprising ten transects located at 2-m intervals. Sites have been 'typed' on the basis of track slope, drainage and substrate characteristics, and the typing scheme has been tested and refined by assessing the relationship between type-usage groups and observed impacts. Analysis reveals that track depth and rates of erosion are strongly influenced by track type and to a lesser extent by usage, while track width is influenced mainly by usage and track bogginess. The time-invariant variable 'usage gradient' was introduced to compensate for the fact that usage levels on most walking tracks in Western Tasmania have varied over time. Data derived from multiple inspections at 2-3 year intervals since 1994 from over 250 sites have been used to derive impact/time curves for different type-'usage gradient' groups. Each of the impact variables can be approximated by the formula m = alphatBeta, where m is the expected value of the impact variable, t is chronological time, and alpha and Beta are constants characteristic of the impact variable and type-'usage gradient' group in question. The typing scheme and impact-development model have the potential to be used for systematically describing and predicting impacts over extensive systems of 'typed' tracks. The implications of these findings for the ongoing monitoring, sitting and management of walking tracks are discussed.

  3. Monitoring International Interest in Transnational Academic Mobility to Australia: A Mixed-Method Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, John L.

    2013-01-01

    In a recent study, the issue of transnational academic mobility of academic staff, considering moves to higher education institutions in Australia, was examined using a web-based portal that attracted interested parties from around the world with information about Australian academic career opportunities. Web analytics were used as the research…

  4. Epsilon Aur monitoring during predicted pulsation phase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waagen, Elizabeth O.; Templeton, Matthew R.

    2014-09-01

    Dr. Robert Stencel (University of Denver Astronomy Program) has requested that AAVSO observers monitor epsilon Aurigae from now through the end of the observing season. "Studies of the long-term, out-of-eclipse photometry of this enigmatic binary suggest that intervals of coherent pulsation occur at roughly 1/3 of the 27.1-year orbital period. Kloppenborg, et al. noted that stable variation patterns develop at 3,200-day intervals' implying that 'the next span of dates when such events might happen are circa JD ~2457000 (2014 December)'. "These out-of-eclipse light variations often have amplitudes of ~0.1 magnitude in U, and ~0.05 in V, with characteristic timescales of 60-100 days. The AAVSO light curve data to the present may indicate that this coherent phenomenon has begun, but we encourage renewed efforts by observers...to help deduce whether these events are internal to the F star, or externally-driven by tidal interaction with the companion star." Nightly observations or one observation every few days (CCD/PEP/DSLR, VUBR (amplitude too small for visual)) are requested. Finder charts with sequence may be created using the AAVSO Variable Star Plotter (http://www.aavso.org/vsp). Observations should be submitted to the AAVSO International Database. Epsilon Aur was the subject of major international campaigns and the AAVSO's Citizen Sky project as it went through its 27.1-year eclipse in 2009-2011. Over 700 observers worldwide submitted over 20,000 multicolor observations to the AAVSO International Database for this project. Much information on eps Aur is available from the AAVSO, including material on the Citizen Sky website (http://www.aavso.org/epsilon-aurigae and http://www.citizensky.org/content/star-our-project). The Journal of the AAVSO, Volume 40, No. 2 (2012) was devoted to discussion of and research results from this event. See full Alert Notice for more details and observations.

  5. A comparison of two generic trap types for monitoring mosquitoes through an annual cycle in tropical Australia.

    PubMed

    Bisevac, Lubomir; Franklin, Donald C; Williamson, Grant J; Whelan, Peter I

    2009-03-01

    We compare the community composition, abundance, and seasonality of mosquito species detected by the encephalitis virus surveillance (EVS) CO2 traps and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps. Traps were run concurrently for a year during routine weekly monitoring in the vicinity of the city of Darwin in northern Australia. The EVS CO2 traps detected far more individuals than CDC light traps notwithstanding a weaker suction fan, but species richness was similar. Regardless of variation in community composition among sites, differences between trap types were remarkably consistent. Seasonal trends in the abundance of 5 key species from each trap type were similar, but markedly more so in strongly seasonal species. Although EVS CO2 traps outperformed CDC light traps for routine monitoring, the historical transition from the latter to the former is unlikely to have major consequences for the identification of community composition or detection of seasonal trends in key species.

  6. Imaging proteomics for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Nazeri, Arash; Ganjgahi, Habib; Roostaei, Tina; Nichols, Thomas; Zarei, Mojtaba

    2014-11-15

    Proteomic and imaging markers have been widely studied as potential biomarkers for diagnosis, monitoring and prognosis of Alzheimer's disease. In this study, we used Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset and performed parallel independent component analysis on cross sectional and longitudinal proteomic and imaging data in order to identify the best proteomic model for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer disease (AD). We used plasma proteins measurement and imaging data from AD and healthy controls (HC) at the baseline and 1 year follow-up. Group comparisons at baseline and changes over 1 year were calculated for proteomic and imaging data. The results were fed into parallel independent component analysis in order to identify proteins that were associated with structural brain changes cross sectionally and longitudinally. Regression model was used to find the best model that can discriminate AD from HC, monitor AD and to predict MCI converters from non-converters. We showed that five proteins are associated with structural brain changes in the brain. These proteins could discriminate AD from HC with 57% specificity and 89% sensitivity. Four proteins whose change over 1 year were associated with brain structural changes could discriminate AD from HC with sensitivity of 93%, and specificity of 92%. This model predicted MCI conversion to AD in 2 years with 94% accuracy. This model has the highest accuracy in prediction of MCI conversion to AD within the ADNI-1 dataset. This study shows that combination of selected plasma protein levels and MR imaging is a useful method in identifying potential biomarker.

  7. Social/Ethical Issues in Predictive Insider Threat Monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Zabriskie, Mariah

    2011-01-01

    Combining traditionally monitored cybersecurity data with other kinds of organizational data is one option for inferring the motivations of individuals, which may in turn allow early prediction and mitigation of insider threats. While unproven, some researchers believe that this combination of data may yield better results than either cybersecurity or organizational data would in isolation. However, this nontraditional approach creates a potential conflict between goals, such as conflicts between organizational security improvements and individual privacy considerations. There are many facets to debate. Should warning signs of a potential malicious insider be addressed before a malicious event has occurred to prevent harm to the organization and discourage the insider from violating the organization’s rules? Would intervention violate employee trust or legal guidelines? What about the possibilities of misuse? Predictive approaches cannot be validated a priori; false accusations can affect the career of the accused; and collection/monitoring of certain types of data may affect employee morale. In this chapter, we explore some of the social and ethical issues stemming from predictive insider threat monitoring and discuss ways that a predictive modeling approach brings to the forefront social and ethical issues that should be considered and resolved by stakeholders and communities of interest.

  8. Predicting the Location and Spatial Extent of Submerged Coral Reef Habitat in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Bridge, Tom; Beaman, Robin; Done, Terry; Webster, Jody

    2012-01-01

    Aim Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef. Location Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Methods Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR. Results Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs. Main Conclusion Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High-quality bathymetry data can be used

  9. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  10. Improve predictive maintenance with HFE monitoring. [High Frequency Envelope

    SciTech Connect

    Page, E.A. ); Berggren, C. )

    1994-01-01

    New on-line machine vibration monitoring systems are offering substantially lower costs and simpler installation requirement. By incorporating high-frequency envelope (HFE) spectrum analysis, these systems can provide earlier and more reliable fault detection. These new capabilities are spurring a transition to on-line predictive monitoring of even noncritical machinery. These condition-monitoring systems automatically perform both conventional vibration analysis and HFE spectrum analysis. Conventional low-frequency spectrum analysis, between 0 to 10 kHz, is widely acknowledged as the most effective means of detecting imbalance, misalignment, mechanical resonances and looseness on machinery. HFE spectrum analysis, above 15 kHz, is now accepted as the most effective method for detecting machine faults, such as pitting or cracking in bearings and gears, insufficient lubrication, shaft rubbing and pump cavitation. The performance and economics of this method is discussed.

  11. Earth rotation monitoring, UT1 determination and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gambis, Daniel; Luzum, Brian

    2011-08-01

    Monitoring the Earth's rotation angle is essential in various domains linked to reference systems such as space navigation, precise orbit determinations of artificial Earth satellites including the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), positional astronomy and for geophysical studies on time scales ranging from a few hours to decades. Universal Time UT1 is based on the rotation of the Earth on its axis. Historically it was related to mean solar time on the meridian of Greenwich, sometimes known as Greenwich Mean Time. Monitoring Earth orientation, and in particular UT1, is the primary task of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). The Earth Orientation Center is responsible for monitoring Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) including long-term consistency and leap second announcements. The Rapid Service/Prediction Center is in charge of the rapid, near real-time solution and predictions. These two complementary services of the IERS provide Earth orientation information from results derived predominantly from Very Long Baseline Interferometry with valuable input from GNSS observations and global atmospheric angular momentum for both the combination and prediction of EOPs.

  12. Instability prediction by monitoring center of pressure during standing.

    PubMed

    Tortolero, Xavier; Masani, Kei; Thrasher, Timothy A; Popovic, Milos R

    2006-01-01

    Incorporating an instability predictor into a portable sensor has a number of clinically relevant applications. This study investigated the feasibility of developing a real-time assessment tool to predict stepping during standing by monitoring Center of Pressure (COP) measurements. Forward and backward perturbations were performed on 16 able-bodied subjects using a pulley system attached to the subjects' waist. A linear relationship was found between the peak COP velocity (COPv) and the peak COP position caused by the perturbations. As the peak COPv occurs considerably before the peak COP, the peak COP estimated using a regression equation from the peak COPv may serve as an instability predictor. By comparing stepping thresholds with the estimated peak COP, we found that the stepping predictor successfully predicted instability (stepping) earlier than those predictors using actual COP. Results show that the proposed model is a viable solution to predict stepping, and the feasibility of incorporating the model into a neuroprosthesis system for standing. PMID:17947140

  13. Continuous event monitoring via a Bayesian predictive approach.

    PubMed

    Di, Jianing; Wang, Daniel; Brashear, H Robert; Dragalin, Vladimir; Krams, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In clinical trials, continuous monitoring of event incidence rate plays a critical role in making timely decisions affecting trial outcome. For example, continuous monitoring of adverse events protects the safety of trial participants, while continuous monitoring of efficacy events helps identify early signals of efficacy or futility. Because the endpoint of interest is often the event incidence associated with a given length of treatment duration (e.g., incidence proportion of an adverse event with 2 years of dosing), assessing the event proportion before reaching the intended treatment duration becomes challenging, especially when the event onset profile evolves over time with accumulated exposure. In particular, in the earlier part of the study, ignoring censored subjects may result in significant bias in estimating the cumulative event incidence rate. Such a problem is addressed using a predictive approach in the Bayesian framework. In the proposed approach, experts' prior knowledge about both the frequency and timing of the event occurrence is combined with observed data. More specifically, during any interim look, each event-free subject will be counted with a probability that is derived using prior knowledge. The proposed approach is particularly useful in early stage studies for signal detection based on limited information. But it can also be used as a tool for safety monitoring (e.g., data monitoring committee) during later stage trials. Application of the approach is illustrated using a case study where the incidence rate of an adverse event is continuously monitored during an Alzheimer's disease clinical trial. The performance of the proposed approach is also assessed and compared with other Bayesian and frequentist methods via simulation.

  14. Dynamic computing resource allocation in online flood monitoring and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, S.; Podhoranyi, M.; Vavrik, R.; Portero, A.

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents tools and methodologies for dynamic allocation of high performance computing resources during operation of the Floreon+ online flood monitoring and prediction system. The resource allocation is done throughout the execution of supported simulations to meet the required service quality levels for system operation. It also ensures flexible reactions to changing weather and flood situations, as it is not economically feasible to operate online flood monitoring systems in the full performance mode during non-flood seasons. Different service quality levels are therefore described for different flooding scenarios, and the runtime manager controls them by allocating only minimal resources currently expected to meet the deadlines. Finally, an experiment covering all presented aspects of computing resource allocation in rainfall-runoff and Monte Carlo uncertainty simulation is performed for the area of the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic.

  15. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES.

    SciTech Connect

    LOFARO,R.; SOO,P.; VILLARAN,M.; GROVE,E.

    2001-03-29

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed.

  16. Understanding invasion history and predicting invasive niches using genetic sequencing technology in Australia: case studies from Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae

    PubMed Central

    Shaik, Razia S.; Zhu, Xiaocheng; Clements, David R.; Weston, Leslie A.

    2016-01-01

    Part of the challenge in dealing with invasive plant species is that they seldom represent a uniform, static entity. Often, an accurate understanding of the history of plant introduction and knowledge of the real levels of genetic diversity present in species and populations of importance is lacking. Currently, the role of genetic diversity in promoting the successful establishment of invasive plants is not well defined. Genetic profiling of invasive plants should enhance our understanding of the dynamics of colonization in the invaded range. Recent advances in DNA sequencing technology have greatly facilitated the rapid and complete assessment of plant population genetics. Here, we apply our current understanding of the genetics and ecophysiology of plant invasions to recent work on Australian plant invaders from the Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae. The Cucurbitaceae study showed that both prickly paddy melon (Cucumis myriocarpus) and camel melon (Citrullus lanatus) were represented by only a single genotype in Australia, implying that each was probably introduced as a single introduction event. In contrast, a third invasive melon, Citrullus colocynthis, possessed a moderate level of genetic diversity in Australia and was potentially introduced to the continent at least twice. The Boraginaceae study demonstrated the value of comparing two similar congeneric species; one, Echium plantagineum, is highly invasive and genetically diverse, whereas the other, Echium vulgare, exhibits less genetic diversity and occupies a more limited ecological niche. Sequence analysis provided precise identification of invasive plant species, as well as information on genetic diversity and phylogeographic history. Improved sequencing technologies will continue to allow greater resolution of genetic relationships among invasive plant populations, thereby potentially improving our ability to predict the impact of these relationships upon future spread and better manage invaders possessing

  17. Causal simulation and sensor planning in predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.

    1989-01-01

    Two issues are addressed which arise in the task of detecting anomalous behavior in complex systems with numerous sensor channels: how to adjust alarm thresholds dynamically, within the changing operating context of the system, and how to utilize sensors selectively, so that nominal operation can be verified reliably without processing a prohibitive amount of sensor data. The approach involves simulation of a causal model of the system, which provides information on expected sensor values, and on dependencies between predicted events, useful in assessing the relative importance of events so that sensor resources can be allocated effectively. The potential applicability of this work to the execution monitoring of robot task plans is briefly discussed.

  18. Climate predictions accelerate decline for threatened macrozamia cycads from queensland, australia.

    PubMed

    Laidlaw, Melinda J; Forster, Paul I

    2012-01-01

    Changes in the potential habitat of five allopatric species of threatened Macrozamia cycads under scenarios of increased ambient temperature were examined. A lack of seed dispersal, poor recruitment, low seedling survival, obligate pollinator mutualisms and continued habitat loss have led to extant populations being largely restricted to refugia. Models predict that the area of suitable habitat will further contract and move upslope, resulting in a reduced incidence within protected areas with increasing annual mean temperature. Areas of potential habitat for all five species are also predicted to become increasingly isolated from one another, further reducing the exchange between metapopulations and subpopulations, exacerbating existing threatening processes. PMID:24832522

  19. Climate predictions accelerate decline for threatened macrozamia cycads from queensland, australia.

    PubMed

    Laidlaw, Melinda J; Forster, Paul I

    2012-12-14

    Changes in the potential habitat of five allopatric species of threatened Macrozamia cycads under scenarios of increased ambient temperature were examined. A lack of seed dispersal, poor recruitment, low seedling survival, obligate pollinator mutualisms and continued habitat loss have led to extant populations being largely restricted to refugia. Models predict that the area of suitable habitat will further contract and move upslope, resulting in a reduced incidence within protected areas with increasing annual mean temperature. Areas of potential habitat for all five species are also predicted to become increasingly isolated from one another, further reducing the exchange between metapopulations and subpopulations, exacerbating existing threatening processes.

  20. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

    2015-06-01

    Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  1. Environmental conditions predict helminth prevalence in red foxes in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Dybing, Narelle A; Fleming, Patricia A; Adams, Peter J

    2013-12-01

    Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are the most common and widely distributed wild carnivore worldwide. These predators harbour a wide range of parasites, many of which may have important conservation, agricultural and zoonotic repercussions. This project investigated the occurrence of helminth parasites from the intestines of 147 red foxes across 14 sampling localities of southwest Western Australia. Helminth parasites were detected in 58% of fox intestines: Dipylidium caninum (27.7% of foxes), Uncinaria stenocephala (18.2%), Toxocara canis (14.9%), Spirometra erinaceieuropaei (5.4%), Toxascaris leonina (4.7%), Taenia serialis (1.4%), Taenia hydatigena (0.7%), unidentified Taenia spp. (4.1%), Brachylaima cribbi (0.7%), Plagiorchis maculosus (0.7%) and an Acanthocephalan; family Centrorhynchidae (2.1%). Importantly, two cestodes of agricultural significance, Echinococcus granulosus and Taenia ovis, were not detected in red foxes in this study, despite the presence of suitable intermediate hosts in the diets of these animals. Parasite richness varied from 1-3 species per host, with average parasite number varying from 1-39 worms (across all helminth species). Regression analyses indicated that the presence of four helminth parasites was related to various environmental factors. The presence of S. erinaceieuropaei (p < 0.001), T. leonina (p < 0.01) and U. stenocephala (p < 0.01) was positively associated with average relative humidity which may affect the longevity of infective stages in the environment. The presence of S. erinaceieuropaei and U. stenocephala (p < 0.001) was positively associated with 5-y-average minimum temperature which could reflect poor survival of infective stages through cold winter conditions. The presence of T. canis and U. stenocephala (p < 0.001) was positively associated with the percentage cover of native vegetation at each sampling location, which is likely to reflect transmission from native prey species acting as paratenic hosts

  2. Mortality of Inshore Marine Mammals in Eastern Australia Is Predicted by Freshwater Discharge and Air Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Meager, Justin J.; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality. PMID:24740149

  3. Predicting clinical image delivery time by monitoring PACS queue behavior.

    PubMed

    King, Nelson E; Documet, Jorge; Liu, Brent

    2006-01-01

    The expectation of rapid image retrieval from PACS users contributes to increased information technology (IT) infrastructure investments to increase performance as well as continuing demands upon PACS administrators to respond to "slow" system performance. The ability to provide predicted delivery times to a PACS user may curb user expectations for "fastest" response especially during peak hours. This, in turn, could result in a PACS infrastructure tailored to more realistic performance demands. A PACS with a stand-alone architecture under peak load typically holds study requests in a queue until the DICOM C-Move command can take place. We investigate the contents of a stand-alone architecture PACS RetrieveSend queue and identified parameters and behaviors that enable a more accurate prediction of delivery time. A prediction algorithm for studies delayed in a stand-alone PACS queue can be extendible to other potential bottlenecks such as long-term storage archives. Implications of a queue monitor in other PACS architectures are also discussed.

  4. Predicting career development in hard-of-hearing adolescents in Australia.

    PubMed

    Punch, Renée; Creed, Peter A; Hyde, Merv

    2005-01-01

    This article reports on a study investigating the career development of hard-of-hearing high school students attending regular classes with itinerant teacher support. We compared 65 hard-of-hearing students with a matched group of normally hearing peers on measures of career maturity, career indecision, perceived career barriers, and three variables associated with social cognitive career theory career decision-making self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and goals. In addition, the predictors of career maturity and career indecision were tested in both groups. Results indicated that (a) the two groups did not differ on measures of career maturity, (b) the SCCT variables were less predictive of career behaviors for the hard-of-hearing students than for the normally hearing students, and (c) perceived career barriers related to hearing loss predicted lower scores on career maturity attitude for the hard-of-hearing students. These findings are discussed in the context of career education and counseling interventions that may benefit young people who are hard of hearing. PMID:15778211

  5. A novel bridge scour monitoring and prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Michalis, Panagiotis; Zhang, Hanqing

    2015-04-01

    obtaining real time data, via novel electromagnetic sensors monitoring scour depth. Once the model is trained with data representative of the new system, bridge scour prediction can be performed for high/design flows or floods.

  6. The SupraThermal Ion Monitor for space weather predictions.

    PubMed

    Allegrini, F; Desai, M I; Livi, S; McComas, D J; Ho, G C

    2014-05-01

    Measurement of suprathermal energy ions in the heliosphere has always been challenging because (1) these ions are situated in the energy regime only a few times higher than the solar wind plasma, where intensities are orders of magnitude higher and (2) ion energies are below or close to the threshold of state-of-art solid-state detectors. Suprathermal ions accelerated at coronal mass ejection-driven shocks propagate out ahead of the shocks. These shocks can cause geomagnetic storms in the Earth's magnetosphere that can affect spacecraft and ground-based power and communication systems. An instrument with sufficient sensitivity to measure these ions can be used to predict the arrival of the shocks and provide an advance warning for potentially geo-effective space weather. In this paper, we present a novel energy analyzer concept, the Suprathermal Ion Monitor (STIM) that is designed to measure suprathermal ions with high sensitivity. We show results from a laboratory prototype and demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. A list of key performances is given, as well as a discussion of various possible detectors at the back end. STIM is an ideal candidate for a future space weather monitor in orbit upstream of the near-earth environment, for example, around L1. A scaled-down version is suitable for a CubeSat mission. Such a platform allows proofing the concept and demonstrating its performance in the space environment.

  7. The SupraThermal Ion Monitor for space weather predictions.

    PubMed

    Allegrini, F; Desai, M I; Livi, S; McComas, D J; Ho, G C

    2014-05-01

    Measurement of suprathermal energy ions in the heliosphere has always been challenging because (1) these ions are situated in the energy regime only a few times higher than the solar wind plasma, where intensities are orders of magnitude higher and (2) ion energies are below or close to the threshold of state-of-art solid-state detectors. Suprathermal ions accelerated at coronal mass ejection-driven shocks propagate out ahead of the shocks. These shocks can cause geomagnetic storms in the Earth's magnetosphere that can affect spacecraft and ground-based power and communication systems. An instrument with sufficient sensitivity to measure these ions can be used to predict the arrival of the shocks and provide an advance warning for potentially geo-effective space weather. In this paper, we present a novel energy analyzer concept, the Suprathermal Ion Monitor (STIM) that is designed to measure suprathermal ions with high sensitivity. We show results from a laboratory prototype and demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. A list of key performances is given, as well as a discussion of various possible detectors at the back end. STIM is an ideal candidate for a future space weather monitor in orbit upstream of the near-earth environment, for example, around L1. A scaled-down version is suitable for a CubeSat mission. Such a platform allows proofing the concept and demonstrating its performance in the space environment. PMID:24880387

  8. Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus infections: a review of history, ecology, and predictive models, with implications for tropical northern Australia.

    PubMed

    Jacups, Susan P; Whelan, Peter I; Currie, Bart J

    2008-04-01

    The purpose of the present article is to present a review of the Ross River virus (RRV) and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) literature in relation to potential implications for future disease in tropical northern Australia. Ross River virus infection is the most common and most widespread arboviral disease in Australia, with an average of 4,800 national notifications annually. Of recent concern is the sudden rise in BFV infections; the 2005-2006 summer marked the largest BFV epidemic on record in Australia, with 1,895 notifications. Although not life-threatening, infection with either virus can cause arthritis, myalgia, and fatigue for 6 months or longer, resulting in substantial morbidity and economic impact. The geographic distribution of mosquito species and their seasonal activity is determined in large part by temperature and rainfall. Predictive models can be useful tools in providing early warning systems for epidemics of RRV and BFV infection. Various models have been developed to predict RRV outbreaks, but these appear to be mostly only regionally valid, being dependent on local ecological factors. Difficulties have arisen in developing useful models for the tropical northern parts of Australia, and to date no models have been developed for the Northern Territory. Only one model has been developed for predicting BFV infections using climate and tide variables. It is predicted that the exacerbation of current greenhouse conditions will result in longer periods of high mosquito activity in the tropical regions where RRV and BFV are already common. In addition, the endemic locations may expand further within temperate regions, and epidemics may become more frequent in those areas. Further development of predictive models should benefit public health planning by providing early warning systems of RRV and BFV infection outbreaks in different geographical locations.

  9. The use of discriminant analysis in predicting the distribution of bluetongue virus in Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Ward, M P

    1994-01-01

    The climatic variables that were most useful in classifying the infection status of Queensland cattle herds with bluetongue virus were assessed using stepwise linear discriminant analysis. A discriminant function that included average annual rainfall and average daily maximum temperature was found to correctly classify 82.6% of uninfected herds and 72.4% of infected herds. Overall, the infection status of 74.1% of herds was correctly classified. The spatial distribution of infected herds was found to parallel that of the suspected vector, Culicoides brevitarsis. This evidence supports the role of this arthropod species as a vector of bluetongue viruses in Queensland. The effect of potential changes in temperature and rainfall (the so-called 'global warming' scenario) on the distribution of bluetongue virus infection of cattle herds in Queensland was then investigated. With an increase in both rainfall and temperature, the area of endemic bluetongue virus infection was predicted to extend a further 150 km in and in southern Queensland. The implications of this for sheep-raising in Queensland are discussed.

  10. Application of sequence stratigraphy to carbonate reservoir prediction, Early Palaeozoic eastern Warburton basin, South Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Xiaowen S.; Stuart, W.J.

    1996-01-01

    The Early Palaeozoic Warburton Basin underlies the gas and oil producing Cooper and Eromanga Basins. Postdepositional tectonism created high potential fracture porosities, complicating the stratigraphy and making reservoir prediction difficult. Sequence stratigraphy integrating core, cuttings, well-log, seismic and biostratigraphic data has recognized a carbonate-dominated to mixed carbonate/siliciclastic supersequence comprising several depositional sequences. Biostratigraphy based on trilobites and conodonts ensures reliable well and seismic correlations across structurally complex areas. Lithofacies interpretation indicates sedimentary environments ranging from carbonate inner shelf, peritidal, shelf edge, deep outer shelf and slope to basin. Log facies show gradually upward shallowing trends or abrupt changes indicating possible sequence boundaries. With essential depositional models and sequence analysis from well data, seismic facies suggest general reflection configurations including parallel-continuous layered patterns indicating uniform neuritic shelf, and mounded structures suggesting carbonate build-ups and pre-existing volcanic relief. Seismic stratigraphy also reveals inclined slope and onlapping margins of a possibly isolated platform geometry. The potential reservoirs are dolomitized carbonates containing oomoldic, vuggy, intercrystalline and fracture porosities in lowstand systems tracts either on carbonate mounds and shelf crests or below shelf edge. The source rock is a deep basinal argillaceous mudstone, and the seal is fine-grained siltstone/shale of the transgressive system tract.

  11. Application of sequence stratigraphy to carbonate reservoir prediction, Early Palaeozoic eastern Warburton basin, South Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Xiaowen S.; Stuart, W.J.

    1996-12-31

    The Early Palaeozoic Warburton Basin underlies the gas and oil producing Cooper and Eromanga Basins. Postdepositional tectonism created high potential fracture porosities, complicating the stratigraphy and making reservoir prediction difficult. Sequence stratigraphy integrating core, cuttings, well-log, seismic and biostratigraphic data has recognized a carbonate-dominated to mixed carbonate/siliciclastic supersequence comprising several depositional sequences. Biostratigraphy based on trilobites and conodonts ensures reliable well and seismic correlations across structurally complex areas. Lithofacies interpretation indicates sedimentary environments ranging from carbonate inner shelf, peritidal, shelf edge, deep outer shelf and slope to basin. Log facies show gradually upward shallowing trends or abrupt changes indicating possible sequence boundaries. With essential depositional models and sequence analysis from well data, seismic facies suggest general reflection configurations including parallel-continuous layered patterns indicating uniform neuritic shelf, and mounded structures suggesting carbonate build-ups and pre-existing volcanic relief. Seismic stratigraphy also reveals inclined slope and onlapping margins of a possibly isolated platform geometry. The potential reservoirs are dolomitized carbonates containing oomoldic, vuggy, intercrystalline and fracture porosities in lowstand systems tracts either on carbonate mounds and shelf crests or below shelf edge. The source rock is a deep basinal argillaceous mudstone, and the seal is fine-grained siltstone/shale of the transgressive system tract.

  12. Remotely monitoring change in vegetation cover on the Montebello Islands, Western Australia, in response to introduced rodent eradication.

    PubMed

    Lohr, Cheryl; Van Dongen, Ricky; Huntley, Bart; Gibson, Lesley; Morris, Keith

    2014-01-01

    The Montebello archipelago consists of 218 islands; 80 km from the north-west coast of Western Australia. Before 1912 the islands had a diverse terrestrial fauna. By 1952 several species were locally extinct. Between 1996 and 2011 rodents and cats were eradicated, and 5 mammal and 2 bird species were translocated to the islands. Monitoring of the broader terrestrial ecosystem over time has been limited. We used 20 dry-season Landsat images from 1988 to 2013 and estimation of green fraction cover in nadir photographs taken at 27 sites within the Montebello islands and six sites on Thevenard Island to assess change in vegetation density over time. Analysis of data averaged across the 26-year period suggests that 719 ha out of 2169 ha have increased in vegetation cover by up to 32%, 955 ha have remained stable and 0.6 ha have declined in vegetation cover. Over 492 ha (22%) had no vegetation cover at any time during the period analysed. Chronological clustering analysis identified two breakpoints in the average vegetation cover data occurring in 1997 and 2003, near the beginning and end of the rodent eradication activities. On many islands vegetation cover was declining prior to 1996 but increased after rodents were eradicated from the islands. Data for North West and Trimouille islands were analysed independently because of the potential confounding effect of native fauna being introduced to these islands. Mala (Lagorchestes hirsutus) and Shark Bay mice (Pseudomys fieldi) both appear to suppress native plant recruitment but not to the same degree as introduced rodents. Future research should assess whether the increase in vegetation cover on the Montebello islands is due to an increase in native or introduced plants.

  13. Remotely Monitoring Change in Vegetation Cover on the Montebello Islands, Western Australia, in Response to Introduced Rodent Eradication

    PubMed Central

    Lohr, Cheryl; Van Dongen, Ricky; Huntley, Bart; Gibson, Lesley; Morris, Keith

    2014-01-01

    The Montebello archipelago consists of 218 islands; 80 km from the north-west coast of Western Australia. Before 1912 the islands had a diverse terrestrial fauna. By 1952 several species were locally extinct. Between 1996 and 2011 rodents and cats were eradicated, and 5 mammal and 2 bird species were translocated to the islands. Monitoring of the broader terrestrial ecosystem over time has been limited. We used 20 dry-season Landsat images from 1988 to 2013 and estimation of green fraction cover in nadir photographs taken at 27 sites within the Montebello islands and six sites on Thevenard Island to assess change in vegetation density over time. Analysis of data averaged across the 26-year period suggests that 719 ha out of 2169 ha have increased in vegetation cover by up to 32%, 955 ha have remained stable and 0.6 ha have declined in vegetation cover. Over 492 ha (22%) had no vegetation cover at any time during the period analysed. Chronological clustering analysis identified two breakpoints in the average vegetation cover data occurring in 1997 and 2003, near the beginning and end of the rodent eradication activities. On many islands vegetation cover was declining prior to 1996 but increased after rodents were eradicated from the islands. Data for North West and Trimouille islands were analysed independently because of the potential confounding effect of native fauna being introduced to these islands. Mala (Lagorchestes hirsutus) and Shark Bay mice (Pseudomys fieldi) both appear to suppress native plant recruitment but not to the same degree as introduced rodents. Future research should assess whether the increase in vegetation cover on the Montebello islands is due to an increase in native or introduced plants. PMID:25436454

  14. Remotely monitoring change in vegetation cover on the Montebello Islands, Western Australia, in response to introduced rodent eradication.

    PubMed

    Lohr, Cheryl; Van Dongen, Ricky; Huntley, Bart; Gibson, Lesley; Morris, Keith

    2014-01-01

    The Montebello archipelago consists of 218 islands; 80 km from the north-west coast of Western Australia. Before 1912 the islands had a diverse terrestrial fauna. By 1952 several species were locally extinct. Between 1996 and 2011 rodents and cats were eradicated, and 5 mammal and 2 bird species were translocated to the islands. Monitoring of the broader terrestrial ecosystem over time has been limited. We used 20 dry-season Landsat images from 1988 to 2013 and estimation of green fraction cover in nadir photographs taken at 27 sites within the Montebello islands and six sites on Thevenard Island to assess change in vegetation density over time. Analysis of data averaged across the 26-year period suggests that 719 ha out of 2169 ha have increased in vegetation cover by up to 32%, 955 ha have remained stable and 0.6 ha have declined in vegetation cover. Over 492 ha (22%) had no vegetation cover at any time during the period analysed. Chronological clustering analysis identified two breakpoints in the average vegetation cover data occurring in 1997 and 2003, near the beginning and end of the rodent eradication activities. On many islands vegetation cover was declining prior to 1996 but increased after rodents were eradicated from the islands. Data for North West and Trimouille islands were analysed independently because of the potential confounding effect of native fauna being introduced to these islands. Mala (Lagorchestes hirsutus) and Shark Bay mice (Pseudomys fieldi) both appear to suppress native plant recruitment but not to the same degree as introduced rodents. Future research should assess whether the increase in vegetation cover on the Montebello islands is due to an increase in native or introduced plants. PMID:25436454

  15. Assessing the repeatability of terrestrial laser scanning for monitoring gully topography: A case study from Aratula, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwin, Nicholas Robert; Armston, John; Stiller, Isaac; Muir, Jasmine

    2016-06-01

    Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) technology is a powerful tool for quantifying gully morphology and monitoring change over time. This is due to the high sampling density, sub-centimetre positional accuracies (x, y, z), flexibility of survey configurations and ability to link multiple TLS scans together. However, to ensure correct interpretation of results, research is needed to test the repeatability of TLS derived products to quantify the accuracy and separate 'false' from 'true' geomorphic change. In this study, we use the RIEGL VZ400 scanner to test the repeatability of TLS datasets for mapping gully morphology. We then quantify change following a rainfall event of approximately 100 mm. Our study site, located in south-east Queensland, Australia was chosen to be challenging from a repeatability perspective with high topographic variability. The TLS data capture involved three sets of linked scans: one survey pre-rainfall, to be compared to two surveys post-rainfall acquired on consecutive days. Change is considered negligible in the two post-rainfall scans to test survey repeatability. To verify TLS accuracy, an independent dataset of gully extent and spot heights were acquired using traditional total station techniques. Results confirm that the TLS datasets can be registered multi-temporally at sub-centimetre levels of accuracy in three dimensions. Total station and TLS elevation samples showed strong agreement with a mean error and standard deviation (SD) of residuals equal to 0.052 and 0.047 m, respectively (n = 889). Significantly, our repeatability tests found that return type and pulse deviation influence the accuracy and repeatability of DEMs in gully environments. Analysis of consecutive day datasets showed that DEMs derived from first return data recorded 40% higher SD of residual error than DEMs using multiple return data. A significant empirical relationship between pulse deviation and the variance of residuals for repeat DEMs is also shown (r2 = 0

  16. Potential wildlife sentinels for monitoring the endemic spread of human buruli ulcer in South-East australia.

    PubMed

    Carson, Connor; Lavender, Caroline J; Handasyde, Kathrine A; O'Brien, Carolyn R; Hewitt, Nick; Johnson, Paul D R; Fyfe, Janet A M

    2014-01-01

    The last 20 years has seen a significant series of outbreaks of Buruli/Bairnsdale Ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, in temperate south-eastern Australia (state of Victoria). Here, the prevailing view of M. ulcerans as an aquatic pathogen has been questioned by recent research identifying native wildlife as potential terrestrial reservoirs of infection; specifically, tree-dwelling common ringtail and brushtail possums. In that previous work, sampling of environmental possum faeces detected a high prevalence of M. ulcerans DNA in established endemic areas for human BU on the Bellarine Peninsula, compared with non-endemic areas. Here, we report research from an emergent BU focus recently identified on the Mornington Peninsula, confirming associations between human BU and the presence of the aetiological agent in possum faeces, detected by real-time PCR targeting M. ulcerans IS2404, IS2606 and KR. Mycobacterium ulcerans DNA was detected in 20/216 (9.3%) ground collected ringtail possum faecal samples and 4/6 (66.6%) brushtail possum faecal samples. The distribution of the PCR positive possum faecal samples and human BU cases was highly focal: there was a significant non-random cluster of 16 M. ulcerans positive possum faecal sample points detected by spatial scan statistics (P<0.0001) within a circle of radius 0.42 km, within which were located the addresses of 6/12 human cases reported from the area to date; moreover, the highest sample PCR signal strength (equivalent to ≥10(6) organisms per gram of faeces) was found in a sample point located within this cluster radius. Corresponding faecal samples collected from closely adjacent BU-free areas were predominantly negative. Possums may be useful sentinels to predict endemic spread of human BU in Victoria, for public health planning. Further research is needed to establish whether spatial associations represent evidence of direct or indirect transmission between possums and humans, and the mechanism by

  17. Short range prediction and monitoring of downbursts over Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johny, C. J.; Prasad, V. S.; Singh, S. K.; Basu, Swati

    2016-05-01

    Convective downdraft motions and related outflow wind considered as an eventual source of potential damage which can be more severe in the aviation sector. A great variety of atmospheric environments can produce these downdraft motions. These events are not easily detectable using conventional weather radar or wind shear alert systems, while Doppler radars are useful for identifying these Downbursts. In order to identify the situations that can cause these downdraft events different diagnostic tools are designed. Recently launched Indian satellite INSAT-3D, with atmospheric sounder and imager on board, is capable of identifying regions of downburst occurrence and can help in monitoring them in real time. Some Downburst events reported over different parts of India, during January-April period is investigated using Microburst Wind Speed Potential Index (MWPI) and thermodynamic characteristics derived from the NCMRWF GFS (NGFS) model. An attempt is made to make a short range prediction of these events using MWPI computed from NGFS model forecasts. The results are validated with in-situ observations and also by employing INSAT-3D data and it is shown that the method has a reasonable success. All the investigated downdraft events are associated with the hybrid Microburst environment.

  18. Optimal characterization of pollutant sources in contaminated aquifers by integrating sequential-monitoring-network design and source identification: methodology and an application in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prakash, Om; Datta, Bithin

    2015-09-01

    Often, when pollution is first detected in groundwater, very few spatiotemporal pollutant concentration measurements are available. The contaminant concentration measurement data initially available are generally sparse and insufficient for accurate source characterization. This requires development of a contaminant monitoring plan and its field implementation to collect more data. The location of scientifically chosen monitoring points and the number of measurements are important considerations in improving the source-characterization process, especially in a complex contamination scenario. In order to improve the efficiency of source characterization, a feedback-based methodology is implemented, integrating sequential-monitoring-network design and a source identification method. The simulated annealing (SA) optimization algorithm is used to solve the models for optimal source identification and the monitoring-network-design optimization. This sequence is repeated a few times to improve the accuracy of source characterization. The methodology is based on the premise that concentration measurements from a sequence of implemented monitoring networks provide feedback information on the actual concentration in the site. This additional information, obtained as feedback from monitoring networks designed and implemented based on intermediate source characterization, can result in sequential improvement in the resulting source characterization. The performance of this methodology is evaluated by application to a contaminated aquifer site in New South Wales, Australia, where source location, source-activity initiation time and source-flux (mass per unit time) release history are considered as unknown variables. The performance evaluation results demonstrate potential applicability of the proposed sequential methodology.

  19. A summary of fault modelling and predictive health monitoring of rolling element bearings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Thalji, Idriss; Jantunen, Erkki

    2015-08-01

    The rolling element bearing is one of the most critical components that determine the machinery health and its remaining lifetime in modern production machinery. Robust Predictive Health Monitoring tools are needed to guarantee the healthy state of rolling element bearing s during the operation. A Predictive Health Monitoring tool indicates the upcoming failures which provide sufficient lead time for maintenance planning. The Predictive Health Monitoring tool aims to monitor the deterioration i.e. wear evolution rather than just detecting the defects. The Predictive Health Monitoring procedures contain detection, diagnosis and prognosis analysis, which are required to extract the features related to the faulty rolling element bearing and estimate the remaining useful lifetime. The purpose of this study is to review the Predictive Health Monitoring methods and explore their capabilities, advantages and disadvantage in monitoring rolling element bearings. Therefore, the study provides a critical review of the Predictive Health Monitoring methods of the entire defect evolution process i.e. over the whole lifetime and suggests enhancements for rolling element bearing monitoring.

  20. Prediction monitoring and evaluation program; a progress report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunter, R.N.; Derr, J.S.

    1978-01-01

    As part of an attempt to separate useful predictions from inaccurate guesses, we have kept score on earthquake predictions from all sources brought to our attention over the past year and a half. The program was outlined in "Earthquake Prediction;Fact and Fallacy" by Roger N. Hunter (Earthquake Information Bulletin, vol. 8, no. 5, September-October 1976, p. 24-25). The program attracted a great deal of public attention, and, as a result, our files now contain over 2500 predictions from more than 230 different people. 

  1. Application of GNSS-RTK derived topographical maps for rapid environmental monitoring: a case study of Jack Finnery Lake (Perth, Australia).

    PubMed

    Schloderer, Glen; Bingham, Matthew; Awange, Joseph L; Fleming, Kevin M

    2011-09-01

    In environmental monitoring, environmental impact assessments and environmental audits, topographical maps play an essential role in providing a means by which the locations of sampling sites may be selected, in assisting with the interpretation of physical features, and in indicating the impact or potential impact on an area due to changes in the system being monitored (e.g., spatially changing features such as wetlands). Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are hereby presented as a rapid method for monitoring spatial changes to support environmental monitoring decisions and policies. To validate the GNSS-based method, a comparison is made of results from a small-scale topographic survey using radio-based real-time kinematic GNSS (GNSS-RTK) and total station survey methods at Jack Finnery Lake, Perth, Australia. The accuracies achieved by the total station in this study were 2 cm horizontally and 6 cm vertically, while the GNSS-RTK also achieved an accuracy of 2 cm horizontally, but only 28 cm vertically. While the GNSS-RTK measurements were less accurate in the height component compared to those from the total station method, it is still capable of achieving accuracies sufficient for a topographic map at a scale of 1:1,750 that could support environmental monitoring tasks such as identifying spatial changes in small water bodies or wetlands. The time taken to perform the survey using GNSS-RTK, however, was much shorter compared to the total station method, thereby making it quite suitable for monitoring spatial changes within an environmental context, e.g., dynamic mining activities that require rapid surveys and the updating of the monitored data at regular intervals.

  2. Probabilistic predictions of climate change for Australia and southern Africa using the reliability ensemble average of IPCC CMIP3 model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moise, A. F.; Hudson, D. A.

    2008-08-01

    "Reliability ensemble averaging" (REA) is applied to a multimodel ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) to produce mean and probabilistic climate change projections for Australia and southern Africa. CMIP3 was conducted in preparation for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). REA produces a weighted average of the ensemble of climate change results, based on a measure of each model's bias and each model's degree of convergence in the predicted climate change. The methodology allows an assessment of the reliability of the projected climate change, the quantification of model uncertainty range, and the production of climate change projections in probabilistic form. Temperature and precipitation changes for three emission scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) are analyzed, with a special focus on the A2 scenario. Regional differences in temperature and rainfall changes are identified, and threshold probabilities and probability density functions (PDFs) for key subregions are produced. In summer for temperature the A2 scenario results show a narrow PDF over southwestern Australia, reflecting agreement between models, partially caused by down weighting of outlier models due to their large biases. In contrast, the PDF for southeastern Australia is much broader, and that for tropical Australia has a bimodal character. There are significant decreases in rainfall under the A2 scenario in winter in the southwest (25-30% decrease) (common in sign to all AOGCM simulations) and the southeast (15-25% decrease) of Australia. There are no changes above natural variability in summer, hence no significant changes in the magnitude of Australian monsoon rainfall. Over southern Africa the region of maximum warming is over the Kalahari Desert in summer and winter. Under the A2 scenario in summer, there is a significant increase in

  3. Tectonic events, sequence stratigraphy and prediction of petroleum play elements in the Cretaceous and Tertiary of the northern Carnarvon Basin, north west shelf, Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Romine, K.K.; Durrant, J.D.

    1996-12-31

    The Carnarvon Basin is one of Australia`s most prolific oil and gas provinces. A recent Paleocene discovery has initiated a shift in exploration interest from traditional Jurassic/Triassic plays to the younger Cretaceous and Tertiary section. To improve play element prediction, a sequence stratigraphic study has been completed, utilizing newly acquired, regional high-resolution seismic data and 80 wells. The occurrence and distribution of the key play elements, reservoir, source and seal, is controlled by the interaction of tectonic subsidence, eustasy and paleogeography, with traps and migration pathways set up and modified by regional tectonic events. For example, a major rifting event commenced in the latest Kimmeridgian-Tithonian that resulted in structuring of older Jurassic sediments and initiation of seafloor spreading in the adjacent Cuvier-Gascoyne Abyssal Plain in the Valanginian. This event was accompanied by a dramatic fall in eustasy that initiated the deposition of high-quality reservoir sandstones of the Tithonian-Valanginian age Barrow Delta. The post-rift phase of thermal cooling and rapid subsidence resulted in transgression, accompanied by deposition of backstepping parasequences of the Mardie Greensand, a potential thief zone and reservoir, and culminated in maximum transgression and deposition of seal and source facies of the Muclerong Shale. The improved sequence stratigraphic framework established in this study provides a predictive tool for the development and assessment of new plays.

  4. Privatizing Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Burr, M.T.

    1995-07-01

    The sun is setting on Australia`s long tradition of state involvement in business. As part of efforts begun in the late-1980`s to stem the tide of debt rising within Australian federal and state treasuries, government-owned entities are being corporatized and privatized, and private companies are sponsoring a large share of the country`s new infrastructure projects.

  5. EPA perspective - exposure and effects prediction and monitoring

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk-based decisions for environmental chemicals often rely on estimates of human exposure and biological response. Biomarkers have proven a useful empirical tool for evaluating exposure and hazard predictions. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Preventio...

  6. Interactions of Team Mental Models and Monitoring Behaviors Predict Team Performance in Simulated Anesthesia Inductions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burtscher, Michael J.; Kolbe, Michaela; Wacker, Johannes; Manser, Tanja

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated how two team mental model properties (similarity vs. accuracy) and two forms of monitoring behavior (team vs. systems) interacted to predict team performance in anesthesia. In particular, we were interested in whether the relationship between monitoring behavior and team performance was moderated by team…

  7. Predictive monitoring research: Summary of the PREMON system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.; Sellers, Suzanne M.; Atkinson, David J.

    1987-01-01

    Traditional approaches to monitoring are proving inadequate in the face of two important issues: the dynamic adjustment of expectations about sensor values when the behavior of the device is too complex to enumerate beforehand, and the selective but effective interpretation of sensor readings when the number of sensors becomes overwhelming. This system addresses these issues by building an explicit model of a device and applying common-sense theories of physics to model causality in the device. The resulting causal simulation of the device supports planning decisions about how to efficiently yet reliably utilize a limited number of sensors to verify correct operation of the device.

  8. Predicting the effect of maternal docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) supplementation to reduce early preterm birth in Australia and the United States using results of within country randomized controlled trials.

    PubMed

    Yelland, L N; Gajewski, B J; Colombo, J; Gibson, R A; Makrides, M; Carlson, S E

    2016-09-01

    The DHA to Optimize Mother Infant Outcome (DOMInO) and Kansas DHA Outcomes Study (KUDOS) were randomized controlled trials that supplemented mothers with 800 and 600mg DHA/day, respectively, or a placebo during pregnancy. DOMInO was conducted in Australia and KUDOS in the United States. Both trials found an unanticipated and statistically significant reduction in early preterm birth (ePTB; i.e., birth before 34 weeks gestation). However, in each trial, the number of ePTBs were small. We used a novel Bayesian approach to estimate statistically derived low, moderate or high risk for ePTB, and to test for differences between the DHA and placebo groups. In both trials, the model predicted DHA would significantly reduce the expected proportion of deliveries in the high risk group under the trial conditions of the parent studies. Among the next 300,000 births in Australia we estimated that 1112 ePTB (95% credible interval 51-2189) could be avoided by providing DHA. And in the USA we estimated that 106,030 ePTB (95% credible interval 6400 to 175,700) could be avoided with DHA.

  9. Predicting the effect of maternal docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) supplementation to reduce early preterm birth in Australia and the United States using results of within country randomized controlled trials.

    PubMed

    Yelland, L N; Gajewski, B J; Colombo, J; Gibson, R A; Makrides, M; Carlson, S E

    2016-09-01

    The DHA to Optimize Mother Infant Outcome (DOMInO) and Kansas DHA Outcomes Study (KUDOS) were randomized controlled trials that supplemented mothers with 800 and 600mg DHA/day, respectively, or a placebo during pregnancy. DOMInO was conducted in Australia and KUDOS in the United States. Both trials found an unanticipated and statistically significant reduction in early preterm birth (ePTB; i.e., birth before 34 weeks gestation). However, in each trial, the number of ePTBs were small. We used a novel Bayesian approach to estimate statistically derived low, moderate or high risk for ePTB, and to test for differences between the DHA and placebo groups. In both trials, the model predicted DHA would significantly reduce the expected proportion of deliveries in the high risk group under the trial conditions of the parent studies. Among the next 300,000 births in Australia we estimated that 1112 ePTB (95% credible interval 51-2189) could be avoided by providing DHA. And in the USA we estimated that 106,030 ePTB (95% credible interval 6400 to 175,700) could be avoided with DHA. PMID:27637340

  10. Predicting and Monitoring Cancer Treatment Response with DW-MRI

    PubMed Central

    Thoeny, Harriet C.; Ross, Brian D.

    2010-01-01

    An imaging biomarker that would provide for an early quantitative metric of clinical treatment response in cancer patients would provide for a paradigm shift in cancer care. Currently, non-image based clinical outcome metrics include morphology, clinical and laboratory parameters however, these are obtained relatively late following treatment. Diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) holds promise for use as a cancer treatment response biomarker as it is sensitive to macromolecular and microstructural changes which can occur at the cellular level earlier than anatomical changes during therapy. Studies have shown that successful treatment of a many tumor types can be detected using DW-MRI as an early increase in the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values. Additionally, low pre-treatment ADC values of various tumors are often predictive of better outcome. These capabilities, once validated, could provide for an important opportunity to individualize therapy thereby minimizing unnecessary systemic toxicity associated with ineffective therapies with the additional advantage of improving overall patient health care and associated costs. In this report, we provide a brief technical overview of DW-MRI acquisition protocols, quantitative image analysis approaches and review studies which have implemented DW-MRI for the purpose of early prediction of cancer treatment response. PMID:20575076

  11. Continuous Metabolic Monitoring Based on Multi-Analyte Biomarkers to Predict Exhaustion

    PubMed Central

    Kastellorizios, Michail; Burgess, Diane J.

    2015-01-01

    This work introduces the concept of multi-analyte biomarkers for continuous metabolic monitoring. The importance of using more than one marker lies in the ability to obtain a holistic understanding of the metabolism. This is showcased for the detection and prediction of exhaustion during intense physical exercise. The findings presented here indicate that when glucose and lactate changes over time are combined into multi-analyte biomarkers, their monitoring trends are more sensitive in the subcutaneous tissue, an implantation-friendly peripheral tissue, compared to the blood. This unexpected observation was confirmed in normal as well as type 1 diabetic rats. This study was designed to be of direct value to continuous monitoring biosensor research, where single analytes are typically monitored. These findings can be implemented in new multi-analyte continuous monitoring technologies for more accurate insulin dosing, as well as for exhaustion prediction studies based on objective data rather than the subject’s perception. PMID:26028477

  12. Continuous metabolic monitoring based on multi-analyte biomarkers to predict exhaustion.

    PubMed

    Kastellorizios, Michail; Burgess, Diane J

    2015-01-01

    This work introduces the concept of multi-analyte biomarkers for continuous metabolic monitoring. The importance of using more than one marker lies in the ability to obtain a holistic understanding of the metabolism. This is showcased for the detection and prediction of exhaustion during intense physical exercise. The findings presented here indicate that when glucose and lactate changes over time are combined into multi-analyte biomarkers, their monitoring trends are more sensitive in the subcutaneous tissue, an implantation-friendly peripheral tissue, compared to the blood. This unexpected observation was confirmed in normal as well as type 1 diabetic rats. This study was designed to be of direct value to continuous monitoring biosensor research, where single analytes are typically monitored. These findings can be implemented in new multi-analyte continuous monitoring technologies for more accurate insulin dosing, as well as for exhaustion prediction studies based on objective data rather than the subject's perception. PMID:26028477

  13. Continuous metabolic monitoring based on multi-analyte biomarkers to predict exhaustion.

    PubMed

    Kastellorizios, Michail; Burgess, Diane J

    2015-06-01

    This work introduces the concept of multi-analyte biomarkers for continuous metabolic monitoring. The importance of using more than one marker lies in the ability to obtain a holistic understanding of the metabolism. This is showcased for the detection and prediction of exhaustion during intense physical exercise. The findings presented here indicate that when glucose and lactate changes over time are combined into multi-analyte biomarkers, their monitoring trends are more sensitive in the subcutaneous tissue, an implantation-friendly peripheral tissue, compared to the blood. This unexpected observation was confirmed in normal as well as type 1 diabetic rats. This study was designed to be of direct value to continuous monitoring biosensor research, where single analytes are typically monitored. These findings can be implemented in new multi-analyte continuous monitoring technologies for more accurate insulin dosing, as well as for exhaustion prediction studies based on objective data rather than the subject's perception.

  14. Coronas-F Orbit Monitoring and Re-Entry Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ivanov, N. M.; Kolyuka, Yu. F.; Afanasieva, T. I.; Gridchina, T. A.

    2007-01-01

    Russian scientific satellite CORONAS-F was launched on July, 31, 2001. The object was inserted in near-circular orbit with the inclination 82.5deg and a mean altitude approx. 520 km. Due to the upper atmosphere drag CORONAS-F was permanently descended and as a result on December, 6, 2005 it has finished the earth-orbital flight, having lifetime in space approx. 4.5 years. The satellite structural features and its flight attitude control led to the significant variations of its ballistic coefficient during the flight. It was a cause of some specific difficulties in the fulfillment of the ballistic and navigation support of this space vehicle flight. Besides the main mission objective CORONAS-F also has been selected by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) as a target object for the next regular international re-entry test campaign on a program of surveillance and re-entry prediction for the hazard space objects within their de-orbiting phases. Spacecraft (S/C) CORONAS-F kept its working state right up to the end of the flight - down to the atmosphere entry. This fact enabled to realization of the additional research experiments, concerning with an estimation of the atmospheric density within the low earth orbits (LEO) of the artificial satellites, and made possible to continue track the S/C during final phase of its flight by means of Russian regular command & tracking system, used for it control. Thus there appeared a unique possibility of using for tracking S/C at its de-orbiting phase not only passive radar facilities, belonging to the space surveillance systems and traditionally used for support of the IADC re-entry test campaigns, but also more precise active trajectory radio-tracking facilities from the ground control complex (GCC) applied for this object. Under the corresponding decision of the Russian side such capability of additional high-precise tracking control of the CORONAS-F flight in this period of time has been implemented

  15. FUSE - Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    South Australian Science Teachers Journal, 1974

    1974-01-01

    Announces the establishment of a division of FUSE in Australia, at Sturt College of Advanced Education, for the purpose of disseminating the concept of unified science and to facilitate the development of unified science programs. (BR)

  16. Predictive monitoring for sepsis and necrotizing enterocolitis to prevent shock.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Brynne A; Fairchild, Karen D

    2015-08-01

    Despite vigilant clinical assessment of infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), diagnosis of sepsis and necrotizing enterocolitis often does not occur until an infant has significant hemodynamic compromise. Predictive monitoring involves analysis of vital signs and other clinical data to identify infants at highest risk and to detect early-stage illness, leading to timelier treatment and improved outcomes. The first vital-sign predictive monitoring device developed for sepsis detection in babies in the NICU is the heart rate characteristics index (HeRO) monitor, which continuously analyzes the electrocardiogram signal for low heart rate variability and transient decelerations. Use of this monitor in very low birth weight infants (<1500 g) was shown in a large multicenter randomized clinical trial to significantly reduce mortality. The purpose of this review is (1) to summarize the physiologic changes in neonatal sepsis and progression to shock, (2) to review efforts toward risk stratification for sepsis shortly after birth based on demographic and physiologic scoring systems, (3) to describe development and implementation of heart rate characteristics monitoring and other important aspects of sepsis early warning systems, and (4) to provide an overview of current research analyzing multiple vital signs and other clinical variables in an attempt to develop even more effective predictive monitoring devices and systems.

  17. Monitoring Central Venous Catheter Resistance to Predict Imminent Occlusion: A Prospective Pilot Study

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Joshua; Tang, Li; Rubnitz, Jeffrey E.; Brennan, Rachel C.; Shook, David R.; Stokes, Dennis C.; Monagle, Paul; Curtis, Nigel; Worth, Leon J.; Allison, Kim; Sun, Yilun; Flynn, Patricia M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Long-term central venous catheters are essential for the management of chronic medical conditions, including childhood cancer. Catheter occlusion is associated with an increased risk of subsequent complications, including bloodstream infection, venous thrombosis, and catheter fracture. Therefore, predicting and pre-emptively treating occlusions should prevent complications, but no method for predicting such occlusions has been developed. Methods We conducted a prospective trial to determine the feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of catheter-resistance monitoring, a novel approach to predicting central venous catheter occlusion in pediatric patients. Participants who had tunneled catheters and were receiving treatment for cancer or undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation underwent weekly catheter-resistance monitoring for up to 12 weeks. Resistance was assessed by measuring the inline pressure at multiple flow-rates via a syringe pump system fitted with a pressure-sensing transducer. When turbulent flow through the device was evident, resistance was not estimated, and the result was noted as “non-laminar.” Results Ten patients attended 113 catheter-resistance monitoring visits. Elevated catheter resistance (>8.8% increase) was strongly associated with the subsequent development of acute catheter occlusion within 10 days (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8–21.5; p <0.01; sensitivity, 75%; specificity, 67%). A combined prediction model comprising either change in resistance greater than 8.8% or a non-laminar result predicted subsequent occlusion (odds ratio = 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.0–22.8; p = 0.002; sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 63%). Participants rated catheter-resistance monitoring as highly acceptable. Conclusions In this pediatric hematology and oncology population, catheter-resistance monitoring is feasible, acceptable, and predicts imminent catheter occlusion. Larger studies are required to validate

  18. The Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS): Overview and Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Hao, Z.; Farahmand, A.; Nakhjiri, N.

    2013-12-01

    Development of reliable monitoring and prediction indices and tools are fundamental to drought preparedness and management. Motivated by the Global Drought Information Systems (GDIS) activities, this paper presents the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which provides near real-time drought information using both remote sensing observations and model simulations. The monthly data from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Land), North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), and remotely sensed precipitation data are used as input to GIDMaPS. Numerous indices have been developed for drought monitoring based on various indicator variables (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, water storage). Defining droughts based on a single variable (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture or runoff) may not be sufficient for reliable risk assessment and decision making. GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. In other words, MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions for overall characterization of droughts. The seasonal prediction component of GIDMaPS is based on a persistence model which requires historical data and near-past observations. The seasonal drought prediction component is based on two input data sets (MERRA and NLDAS) and three drought indicators (SPI, SSI and MSDI). The drought prediction model provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from several major droughts including the 2013 Namibia, 2012-2013 United States, 2011-2012 Horn of Africa, and 2010 Amazon Droughts will be presented. The results indicate

  19. Reducing the predictive uncertainty associated with groundwater management decision-making in the Perth regional aquifer system of Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siade, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    The Perth Regional Aquifer Model (PRAMS) framework has been used for about a decade now to evaluate the potential anthropogenic impacts associated with management decisions that affect Perth's groundwater resources. A great wealth of data, expertise and numerical analysis have gone into the development of PRAMS over the years. However, there has been little quantitative work conducted on systemically addressing the uncertainty in the model's structure and predictions. PRAMS is designed to make a variety of regional and local-scale predictions and, both the nature and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with these predictions can vary significantly. A primary prediction to be addressed using the PRAMS framework, will be the effects of various deep-aquifer groundwater management scenarios on both the environmental and social concerns surrounding the superficial aquifer, which supports sensitive wetlands, and the negative impacts of seawater intrusion into the deep aquifers. A particular model-structure component that greatly affects the predictions associated with deep-aquifer groundwater extraction is the characterization of the local fault structure, i.e., whether or not faults are acting as barriers to groundwater flow. Therefore, uncertainty in fault characterization can subsequently lead to significant predictive uncertainty. However, new observation data can be obtained to reduce this uncertainty. In this study, an experimental design methodology is employed to optimally acquire new observations of state in such a way as to maximize the information obtained about the hydraulic properties of faults. Various information criteria are employed to develop optimal locations of new observation wells. The A-optimality criterion was found to be the most effective for comparing sampling strategies given the design assumptions, which include the parameter sets employed, hydraulic forcing, temporal considerations, and the use of the existing observation network. A

  20. Tectonic events, sequence stratigraphy and prediction of petroleum play elements in the Cretaceous and Tertiary of the northern Carnarvon Basin, north west shelf, Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Romine, K.K. ); Durrant, J.D. )

    1996-01-01

    The Carnarvon Basin is one of Australia's most prolific oil and gas provinces. A recent Paleocene discovery has initiated a shift in exploration interest from traditional Jurassic/Triassic plays to the younger Cretaceous and Tertiary section. To improve play element prediction, a sequence stratigraphic study has been completed, utilizing newly acquired, regional high-resolution seismic data and 80 wells. The occurrence and distribution of the key play elements, reservoir, source and seal, is controlled by the interaction of tectonic subsidence, eustasy and paleogeography, with traps and migration pathways set up and modified by regional tectonic events. For example, a major rifting event commenced in the latest Kimmeridgian-Tithonian that resulted in structuring of older Jurassic sediments and initiation of seafloor spreading in the adjacent Cuvier-Gascoyne Abyssal Plain in the Valanginian. This event was accompanied by a dramatic fall in eustasy that initiated the deposition of high-quality reservoir sandstones of the Tithonian-Valanginian age Barrow Delta. The post-rift phase of thermal cooling and rapid subsidence resulted in transgression, accompanied by deposition of backstepping parasequences of the Mardie Greensand, a potential thief zone and reservoir, and culminated in maximum transgression and deposition of seal and source facies of the Muclerong Shale. The improved sequence stratigraphic framework established in this study provides a predictive tool for the development and assessment of new plays.

  1. Improving Multi-Sensor Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Recovery Assessment Using Gravimetry Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.

    2015-04-01

    Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions and provides composite multi-index drought information for overall characterization of droughts. GIDMaPS includes a seasonal prediction component based on a statistical persistence-based approach. The prediction component of GIDMaPS provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation we present a new component in which the drought prediction information based on SPI, SSI and MSDI are conditioned on equivalent water height obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Using a Bayesian approach, GRACE information is used to evaluate persistence of drought. Finally, the deficit equivalent water height based on GRACE is used for assessing drought recovery. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from 2014

  2. Efficacy of monitoring and empirical predictive modeling at improving public health protection at Chicago beaches.

    PubMed

    Nevers, Meredith B; Whitman, Richard L

    2011-02-01

    Efforts to improve public health protection in recreational swimming waters have focused on obtaining real-time estimates of water quality. Current monitoring techniques rely on the time-intensive culturing of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) from water samples, but rapidly changing FIB concentrations result in management errors that lead to the public being exposed to high FIB concentrations (type II error) or beaches being closed despite acceptable water quality (type I error). Empirical predictive models may provide a rapid solution, but their effectiveness at improving health protection has not been adequately assessed. We sought to determine if emerging monitoring approaches could effectively reduce risk of illness exposure by minimizing management errors. We examined four monitoring approaches (inactive, current protocol, a single predictive model for all beaches, and individual models for each beach) with increasing refinement at 14 Chicago beaches using historical monitoring and hydrometeorological data and compared management outcomes using different standards for decision-making. Predictability (R(2)) of FIB concentration improved with model refinement at all beaches but one. Predictive models did not always reduce the number of management errors and therefore the overall illness burden. Use of a Chicago-specific single-sample standard-rather than the default 235 E. coli CFU/100 ml widely used-together with predictive modeling resulted in the greatest number of open beach days without any increase in public health risk. These results emphasize that emerging monitoring approaches such as empirical models are not equally applicable at all beaches, and combining monitoring approaches may expand beach access.

  3. Efficacy of monitoring and empirical predictive modeling at improving public health protection at Chicago beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nevers, Meredith B.; Whitman, Richard L.

    2011-01-01

    Efforts to improve public health protection in recreational swimming waters have focused on obtaining real-time estimates of water quality. Current monitoring techniques rely on the time-intensive culturing of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) from water samples, but rapidly changing FIB concentrations result in management errors that lead to the public being exposed to high FIB concentrations (type II error) or beaches being closed despite acceptable water quality (type I error). Empirical predictive models may provide a rapid solution, but their effectiveness at improving health protection has not been adequately assessed. We sought to determine if emerging monitoring approaches could effectively reduce risk of illness exposure by minimizing management errors. We examined four monitoring approaches (inactive, current protocol, a single predictive model for all beaches, and individual models for each beach) with increasing refinement at 14 Chicago beaches using historical monitoring and hydrometeorological data and compared management outcomes using different standards for decision-making. Predictability (R2) of FIB concentration improved with model refinement at all beaches but one. Predictive models did not always reduce the number of management errors and therefore the overall illness burden. Use of a Chicago-specific single-sample standard-rather than the default 235 E. coli CFU/100 ml widely used-together with predictive modeling resulted in the greatest number of open beach days without any increase in public health risk. These results emphasize that emerging monitoring approaches such as empirical models are not equally applicable at all beaches, and combining monitoring approaches may expand beach access.

  4. Drought: A comprehensive R package for drought monitoring, prediction and analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Cheng, Hongguang

    2015-04-01

    Drought may impose serious challenges to human societies and ecosystems. Due to complicated causing effects and wide impacts, a universally accepted definition of drought does not exist. The drought indicator is commonly used to characterize drought properties such as duration or severity. Various drought indicators have been developed in the past few decades for the monitoring of a certain aspect of drought condition along with the development of multivariate drought indices for drought characterizations from multiple sources or hydro-climatic variables. Reliable drought prediction with suitable drought indicators is critical to the drought preparedness plan to reduce potential drought impacts. In addition, drought analysis to quantify the risk of drought properties would provide useful information for operation drought managements. The drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis are important components in drought modeling and assessments. In this study, a comprehensive R package "drought" is developed to aid the drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis (available from R-Forge and CRAN soon). The computation of a suite of univariate and multivariate drought indices that integrate drought information from various sources such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff is available in the drought monitoring component in the package. The drought prediction/forecasting component consists of statistical drought predictions to enhance the drought early warning for decision makings. Analysis of drought properties such as duration and severity is also provided in this package for drought risk assessments. Based on this package, a drought monitoring and prediction/forecasting system is under development as a decision supporting tool. The package will be provided freely to the public to aid the drought modeling and assessment for researchers and practitioners.

  5. Categorical Drought Monitoring and Prediction in the United States Based on NLDAS-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Z.; Xia, Y.; Hao, F.; Singh, V. P.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is a pervasive natural hazard and is a billion-dollar disaster in the United States, which is comparable to hurricanes and tropical storms with greater economic impacts than extratropical storms, wildfires, blizzards, and ice storms combined. Drought early warning is of critical importance for drought preparedness planning and mitigation efforts to reduce potential impacts of drought, for which drought monitoring and prediction are the essential components. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has been widely used to track droughts and their impacts. USDM is a composite product that blends quantitative drought indicators and qualitative drought information from multiple sources and classifies drought conditions into different drought categories. Due to the wide application of USDM products, drought monitoring and prediction in the categorical form would be of great importance to aid decision makers to take appropriate measures for drought managements. Based on drought indices from North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2), this study proposes a statistical method for the categorical drought monitoring and prediction in the United States. The probabilities of drought conditions falling into different USDM drought categories can be estimated from the proposed method. The method is found to satisfactorily reconstruct historical USDM drought categories and predict future USDM drought categories, and has considerable potential to aid early drought warning in the United States.

  6. Improving flood prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture in poorly monitored catchments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Flood prediction in poorly monitored catchments is among the greatest challenges faced by hydrologists. To address this challenge, an increasing number of studies in the last decade have explored methods to integrate various existing observations from ground and satellites. One approach in particula...

  7. Predicting High Risk Adolescents' Substance Use over Time: The Role of Parental Monitoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Heddy Kovach; Shamblen, Stephen R.; Ringwalt, Chris L.; Hanley, Sean

    2012-01-01

    We examined whether parental monitoring at baseline predicted subsequent substance use in a high-risk youth population. Students in 14 alternative high schools in Washington State completed self-report surveys at three time points over the course of 2 years. Primary analyses included 1,423 students aged 14-20 who lived with at least one parent or…

  8. Northern Australia

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-16

    ... reflect light differently at different angles of view. Water appears in blue shades in the right image, for example, because glitter ... lake in Australia, which supplies water for the Ord River Irrigation Area and the town of Kununurra (pop. 6500) just to the north. At the ...

  9. Research Progress of Farmland Drought Monitoring and Prediction Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Guijun; Yang, Hao; Jin, Xiuliang; Pignatti, Stefano; Casa, Raffaele; Pascucci, Simone; Silvesrtro, Paolo Cosmo

    2014-11-01

    Since the Kick-off of the Dragon-3 project Farmland Drought Monitoring and Prediction Based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data (ID: 10448), our research focuses on three points including 1) the monitoring of key biophysical variables of crop and soil in farmland drought by optical and radar remote sensing data, 2) the risk assessment of farmland drought by time series remote sensing and meteorological data, and 3) the crop loss evaluation under farmland drought mainly based on AquaCrop crop model. Our study area is mainly located in Beijing, and Shaanxi Province (semi-arid region), China. Experiment campaign and data analysis were carried out and some new methods aiming at farmland drought monitoring and prediction were developed, which highlighting the importance of ESA-NRSCC Dragon cooperation.

  10. Predictive monitoring of mobile patients by combining clinical observations with data from wearable sensors.

    PubMed

    Clifton, Lei; Clifton, David A; Pimentel, Marco A F; Watkinson, Peter J; Tarassenko, Lionel

    2014-05-01

    The majority of patients in the hospital are ambulatory and would benefit significantly from predictive and personalized monitoring systems. Such patients are well suited to having their physiological condition monitored using low-power, minimally intrusive wearable sensors. Despite data-collection systems now being manufactured commercially, allowing physiological data to be acquired from mobile patients, little work has been undertaken on the use of the resultant data in a principled manner for robust patient care, including predictive monitoring. Most current devices generate so many false-positive alerts that devices cannot be used for routine clinical practice. This paper explores principled machine learning approaches to interpreting large quantities of continuously acquired, multivariate physiological data, using wearable patient monitors, where the goal is to provide early warning of serious physiological determination, such that a degree of predictive care may be provided. We adopt a one-class support vector machine formulation, proposing a formulation for determining the free parameters of the model using partial area under the ROC curve, a method arising from the unique requirements of performing online analysis with data from patient-worn sensors. There are few clinical evaluations of machine learning techniques in the literature, so we present results from a study at the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust devised to investigate the large-scale clinical use of patient-worn sensors for predictive monitoring in a ward with a high incidence of patient mortality. We show that our system can combine routine manual observations made by clinical staff with the continuous data acquired from wearable sensors. Practical considerations and recommendations based on our experiences of this clinical study are discussed, in the context of a framework for personalized monitoring.

  11. Predictive based monitoring of nuclear plant component degradation using support vector regression

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, Vivek; Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.

    2015-02-01

    Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are large installations comprised of many active and passive assets. Degradation monitoring of all these assets is expensive (labor cost) and highly demanding task. In this paper a framework based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for online surveillance of critical parameter degradation of NPP components is proposed. In this case, on time replacement or maintenance of components will prevent potential plant malfunctions, and reduce the overall operational cost. In the current work, we apply SVR equipped with a Gaussian kernel function to monitor components. Monitoring includes the one-step-ahead prediction of the component’s respective operational quantity using the SVR model, while the SVR model is trained using a set of previous recorded degradation histories of similar components. Predictive capability of the model is evaluated upon arrival of a sensor measurement, which is compared to the component failure threshold. A maintenance decision is based on a fuzzy inference system that utilizes three parameters: (i) prediction evaluation in the previous steps, (ii) predicted value of the current step, (iii) and difference of current predicted value with components failure thresholds. The proposed framework will be tested on turbine blade degradation data.

  12. Predicted Interval Plots (PIPS): A Graphical Tool for Data Monitoring of Clinical Trials

    PubMed Central

    Li, Lingling; Evans, Scott R.; Uno, Hajime; Wei, L.J.

    2011-01-01

    Group sequential designs are often used in clinical trials to evaluate efficacy and/or futility. Many methods have been developed for different types of endpoints and scenarios. However, few of these methods convey information regarding effect sizes (e.g., treatment differences) and none uses prediction to convey information regarding potential effect size estimates and associated precision, with trial continuation. To address these limitations, Evans et al. (2007) proposed to use prediction and predicted intervals as a flexible and practical tool for quantitative monitoring of clinical trials. In this article, we reaffirm the importance and usefulness of this innovative approach and introduce a graphical summary, predicted interval plots (PIPS), to display the information obtained in the prediction process in a straightforward yet comprehensive manner. We outline the construction of PIPS and apply this method in two examples. The results and the interpretations of the PIPS are discussed. PMID:21423789

  13. MINErosion 3: A user friendly hillslope model for predicting erosion from steep post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    So, Hwat-Bing; Khalifa, Ashraf; Carroll, Chris; Yu, Bofu

    2010-05-01

    Open-cut coal mining in Central Queensland involves the breaking up of overburden that overlies the coal seams using explosives, followed by removal with draglines which results in the formation of extensive overburden spoil-piles with steep slopes at the angle of repose (approximately 75 % or 37o). These spoil-piles are found in long multiple rows, with heights of up to 60 or 70 m above the original landscapes. They are generally highly saline and dispersive and hence highly erosive. Legislation requires that these spoil-piles be rehabilitated into a stable self sustaining ecosystem with no off-site pollution. The first stage in the rehabilitation of these landscapes is the lowering of slopes to create a landscape that is stable against geotechnical failure and erosion. This is followed by revegetation generally with grasses as pioneer vegetation to further reduce erosion and a mixture of native shrubs and trees. Minimizing erosion and excessive on-site discharges of sediment into the working areas may result in the temporary cessation of mining operation with significant financial consequences, while off site discharges may breach the mining lease conditions. The average cost of rehabilitation is around 22,000 per ha. With more than 50,000 ha of such spoil-piles in Queensland at present, the total cost of rehabilitation facing the industry is very high. Most of this comprised the cost of reshaping the landscape, largely associated with the amount of material movement necessary to achieve the desired landscape. Since soil and spoil-piles vary greatly in their erodibilities, a reliable and accurate method is required to determine a cost effective combination of slope length, slope gradient and vegetation that will result in acceptable rates of erosion. A user friendly hillslope computer package MINErosion 3, was developed to predict potential erosion to select suitable combinations of landscape design parameters (slope gradient, slope length and vegetation cover

  14. Development of a catchment/landscape erosion prediction model (MINErosion 4) for post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalifa, Ashraf; Yu, Bofu; Ghadiri, Hossain; Carroll, Chris; So, Hwat-Bing

    2010-05-01

    industry further require a tool that enables them to predict and manage the impact of on-site and offsite discharges from storm events and to identify the areas of high erosion risk. Work is in progress to develop a user friendly package MINErosion 4 by combining the hillslope model MINErosion 3 with ARC-GIS 9, which allows the prediction of sediment losses and deposition from proposed post-mining landscapes (designed based on criteria derived from MINErosion3) subjected to rainstorms with known recurrence intervals for selected locations. An option is provided to derive mean annual soil loss from these catchments and landscapes. Soil samples were collected from various locations on 6 minesites to provide a measure of variability in erodibilities across a minesite. The model was validated against 9 years of catchment data collected from previous projects and the agreement between predicted (Y) and measured (X) soil losses are good with regression equations of Y = 0.919 X (R2 = 0.81) for individual rainstorms, and Y= 1.473 X (R2 = 0.726) for average annual soil loss.

  15. Human vision model to predict observer performance: detection of microcalcifications as a function of monitor phosphor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krupinski, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Jeffrey P.; Roehrig, Hans; Lubin, Jeffrey; Engstrom, Michael

    2003-05-01

    The goal was to develop an efficient method of optimizing CRT monitor performance for digital mammography. The Sarnoff JNDmetrix vision model is based on just-noticeable difference measurement and frequency-channel vision-modeling principles. Given 2 images as input the model returns accurate, robust estimates of discriminability. Model predictions are compared with human performance. Mammographic images with microcalcifications were viewed by six radiologists, once on a monitor with P45 and once on one with P104 phosphor. Results were compared with output of the model used to predict differences in perceptibility of calcifications using luminance data measured with a high-resolution CCD camera. Human performance was best with high contrast clusters and got worse with each decrease in contrast. Performance was better with the P45 than the P104 for targets at all contrast levels. The JNDmetrix model predicted the same pattern of results. Correlation between human and model observer performance was very high. We have demonstrated the utility of using a vision model to accurately predict human detection performance. The type of phosphor in a monitor influences observer performance at least for the detection of microcalcifications. The main reason is that the P104 has a higher luminance, but the P45 has a higher signal-to-noise ratio.

  16. A Study Protocol for the Australasian Oncofertility Registry: Monitoring Referral Patterns and the Uptake, Quality, and Complications of Fertility Preservation Strategies in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Anazodo, Antoinette C; Stern, Catharyn J; McLachlan, Robert I; Gerstl, Brigitte; Agresta, Franca; Cohn, Richard J; Jayasinghe, Yasmin; Wakefield, Claire E; Daly, Genevieve; Chan, Daisy; Gilbert, Lorrae; Kemertzis, Matthew; Orme, Lisa M; Wand, Handan; Viney, Rosalie; Gillam, Lynn; Deans, Rebecca; Jetti, Murali; Wu, John; Chapman, Michael; Ledger, William; Sullivan, Elizabeth A

    2016-09-01

    Improvements in cancer diagnosis and treatment in patients of a reproductive age have led to significant improvements in survival rates; however, a patient's fertility can be affected by both cancer and its treatment. As survival rates improve, there is an expectation by clinicians and patients that patient's reproductive potential should be considered and protected as much as possible. However, there is a lack of data about current fertility preservation (FP) uptake as well as accurate data on the acute or permanent reproductive risks of cancer treatment, complications of FP in cancer patients, and the use and success of assisted reproductive technology by cancer survivors. FP remains a major gap in acute cancer management with lifelong implications for cancer survivors. The FUTuRE Fertility research team has established the first binational multisite Australasian Oncofertility Registry, which is collecting a complete oncofertility data set from cancer and fertility centers in Australia and New Zealand. Outcomes from the research study will monitor referral, uptake, and complications of FP, document patient's reproductive potential after treatment, and collect data on the use of assisted reproductive technology following cancer treatment. The data will be linked to other routine health and administrative data sets to allow for other research projects to be carried out. The changes in oncofertility care will be benchmarked against the Australasian Oncofertility Charter. The data will be used to develop evidence-based guidelines and resources, including development of accurate risk projections for patients' risk of infertility, allowing clinicians to make recommendations for FP or assisted reproductive technology. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Number-12615000221550.

  17. A Study Protocol for the Australasian Oncofertility Registry: Monitoring Referral Patterns and the Uptake, Quality, and Complications of Fertility Preservation Strategies in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Anazodo, Antoinette C; Stern, Catharyn J; McLachlan, Robert I; Gerstl, Brigitte; Agresta, Franca; Cohn, Richard J; Jayasinghe, Yasmin; Wakefield, Claire E; Daly, Genevieve; Chan, Daisy; Gilbert, Lorrae; Kemertzis, Matthew; Orme, Lisa M; Wand, Handan; Viney, Rosalie; Gillam, Lynn; Deans, Rebecca; Jetti, Murali; Wu, John; Chapman, Michael; Ledger, William; Sullivan, Elizabeth A

    2016-09-01

    Improvements in cancer diagnosis and treatment in patients of a reproductive age have led to significant improvements in survival rates; however, a patient's fertility can be affected by both cancer and its treatment. As survival rates improve, there is an expectation by clinicians and patients that patient's reproductive potential should be considered and protected as much as possible. However, there is a lack of data about current fertility preservation (FP) uptake as well as accurate data on the acute or permanent reproductive risks of cancer treatment, complications of FP in cancer patients, and the use and success of assisted reproductive technology by cancer survivors. FP remains a major gap in acute cancer management with lifelong implications for cancer survivors. The FUTuRE Fertility research team has established the first binational multisite Australasian Oncofertility Registry, which is collecting a complete oncofertility data set from cancer and fertility centers in Australia and New Zealand. Outcomes from the research study will monitor referral, uptake, and complications of FP, document patient's reproductive potential after treatment, and collect data on the use of assisted reproductive technology following cancer treatment. The data will be linked to other routine health and administrative data sets to allow for other research projects to be carried out. The changes in oncofertility care will be benchmarked against the Australasian Oncofertility Charter. The data will be used to develop evidence-based guidelines and resources, including development of accurate risk projections for patients' risk of infertility, allowing clinicians to make recommendations for FP or assisted reproductive technology. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Number-12615000221550. PMID:26981848

  18. Application of the Artificial Neural Network model for prediction of monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index using hydrometeorological parameters and climate indices in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Şahin, Mehmet

    2015-07-01

    The forecasting of drought based on cumulative influence of rainfall, temperature and evaporation is greatly beneficial for mitigating adverse consequences on water-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, ecosystems, wildlife, tourism, recreation, crop health and hydrologic engineering. Predictive models of drought indices help in assessing water scarcity situations, drought identification and severity characterization. In this paper, we tested the feasibility of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a data-driven model for predicting the monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for eight candidate stations in eastern Australia using predictive variable data from 1915 to 2005 (training) and simulated data for the period 2006-2012. The predictive variables were: monthly rainfall totals, mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration, which were supplemented by large-scale climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and Indian Ocean Dipole) and the Sea Surface Temperatures (Nino 3.0, 3.4 and 4.0). A total of 30 ANN models were developed with 3-layer ANN networks. To determine the best combination of learning algorithms, hidden transfer and output functions of the optimum model, the Levenberg-Marquardt and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton backpropagation algorithms were utilized to train the network, tangent and logarithmic sigmoid equations used as the activation functions and the linear, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid equations used as the output function. The best ANN architecture had 18 input neurons, 43 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron, trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm using tangent sigmoid equation as the activation and output functions. An evaluation of the model performance based on statistical rules yielded time-averaged Coefficient of Determination, Root Mean Squared Error and the Mean Absolute

  19. Cave Monitoring to Determine the Controls on δ18O From a Modern Speleothem Record in Semi-arid SE Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markowska, M.; Baker, A.; Andersen, M. S.; Jex, C.; Cuthbert, M. O.; Rau, G. C.; Graham, P. W.; Rutlidge, H.; Marjo, C.; Treble, P. C.

    2015-12-01

    Cave monitoring provides a crucial link between hydrological and climate processes and how they may in turn effect speleothem δ18O calcite composition. This is particularly important in arid environments where potential evapotranspiration (PET) exceeds precipitation (P) and may dominate the δ18O signature. In this study we investigate climate-karst-cave interactions driving the δ18O variability in modern drip water samples from Cathedral Cave in semi-arid SE Australia and use this information to interpret a modern sub-annually resolved speleothem record. Over a two-year monitoring campaign we established that mean composition of δ18O in modern drip waters was enriched by up to 2.9‰, relative to the weighted mean annual rainfall. Furthermore, fluctuations in δ18O over time were controlled by two processes (1) evaporation in the unsaturated zone, resulting in heavier values, and (2) recharge during infiltration events, resulting in isotopically lighter values. Large soil moisture deficits in the soil zone must therefore be surpassed to initiate infiltration, resulting in relatively infrequent (0-3 per year) infiltration events. A series of infiltration experiments were conducted to elucidate water flow delivery mechanisms and water residence times. We found that the hydrological pathways and resulting mixing processes that occurred in the unsaturated zone determined the isotopic variability in the drip water δ18O between individual drip sites, and that potential storage in the unsaturated zone is generally greater than 6 months. We establish that the δ18O record in speleothems from this cave do not exclusively record rainfall composition or amount but are overlaid with an evaporative signal that is strongly affected by the time since the last infiltration event, local hydrogeology, cave climate and disequilibrium during calcite deposition. This hypothesis was tested by reconstructing the δ18O proxy record in a speleothem growing for ~50 years in the

  20. On-board predicting algorithm of radiation exposure for the International Space Station radiation monitoring system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benghin, V. V.

    2008-02-01

    Radiation monitoring system (RMS) has worked on-board the International Space Station (ISS) practically continuously beginning from August 2001. In June 2005, the RMS software was updated. New RMS software detects radiation environment worsening due to solar proton events and informs the crew about this. The algorithm of the on-board radiation environment predict is a part of the new software. This algorithm reveals dose rate increments on high-latitude parts of ISS orbit and calculates estimations of time intervals and dose rate values for ulterior crossings of high-latitude areas. A brief description of the on-board radiation exposure-predict algorithm is presented.

  1. Quantifying the prediction accuracy of a 1-D SVAT model at a range of ecosystems in the USA and Australia: evidence towards its use as a tool to study Earth's system interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petropoulos, G. P.; North, M. R.; Ireland, G.; Srivastava, P. K.; Rendall, D. V.

    2015-10-01

    This paper describes the validation of the SimSphere SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer) model conducted at a range of US and Australian ecosystem types. Specific focus was given to examining the models' ability in predicting shortwave incoming solar radiation (Rg), net radiation (Rnet), latent heat (LE), sensible heat (H), air temperature at 1.3 m (Tair 1.3 m) and air temperature at 50 m (Tair 50 m). Model predictions were compared against corresponding in situ measurements acquired for a total of 72 selected days of the year 2011 obtained from eight sites belonging to the AmeriFlux (USA) and OzFlux (Australia) monitoring networks. Selected sites were representative of a variety of environmental, biome and climatic conditions, to allow for the inclusion of contrasting conditions in the model evaluation. Overall, results showed a good agreement between the model predictions and the in situ measurements, particularly so for the Rg, Rnet, Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m parameters. The simulated Rg parameter exhibited a root mean square deviation (RMSD) within 25 % of the observed fluxes for 58 of the 72 selected days, whereas an RMSD within ~ 24 % of the observed fluxes was reported for the Rnet parameter for all days of study (RMSD = 58.69 W m-2). A systematic underestimation of Rg and Rnet (mean bias error (MBE) = -19.48 and -16.46 W m-2) was also found. Simulations for the Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m showed good agreement with the in situ observations, exhibiting RMSDs of 3.23 and 3.77 °C (within ~ 15 and ~ 18 % of the observed) for all days of analysis, respectively. Comparable, yet slightly less satisfactory simulation accuracies were exhibited for the H and LE parameters (RMSDs = 38.47 and 55.06 W m-2, ~ 34 and ~ 28 % of the observed). Highest simulation accuracies were obtained for the open woodland savannah and mulga woodland sites for most of the compared parameters. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index for all parameters ranges from 0.720 to 0.998, suggesting

  2. Evaluation of the predicted error of the soil moisture retrieval from C-band SAR by comparison against modelled soil moisture estimates over Australia.

    PubMed

    Doubková, Marcela; Van Dijk, Albert I J M; Sabel, Daniel; Wagner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

    2012-05-15

    The Sentinel-1 will carry onboard a C-band radar instrument that will map the European continent once every four days and the global land surface at least once every twelve days with finest 5 × 20 m spatial resolution. The high temporal sampling rate and operational configuration make Sentinel-1 of interest for operational soil moisture monitoring. Currently, updated soil moisture data are made available at 1 km spatial resolution as a demonstration service using Global Mode (GM) measurements from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) onboard ENVISAT. The service demonstrates the potential of the C-band observations to monitor variations in soil moisture. Importantly, a retrieval error estimate is also available; these are needed to assimilate observations into models. The retrieval error is estimated by propagating sensor errors through the retrieval model. In this work, the existing ASAR GM retrieval error product is evaluated using independent top soil moisture estimates produced by the grid-based landscape hydrological model (AWRA-L) developed within the Australian Water Resources Assessment system (AWRA). The ASAR GM retrieval error estimate, an assumed prior AWRA-L error estimate and the variance in the respective datasets were used to spatially predict the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient R between the two datasets. These were compared with the RMSE calculated directly from the two datasets. The predicted and computed RMSE showed a very high level of agreement in spatial patterns as well as good quantitative agreement; the RMSE was predicted within accuracy of 4% of saturated soil moisture over 89% of the Australian land mass. Predicted and calculated R maps corresponded within accuracy of 10% over 61% of the continent. The strong correspondence between the predicted and calculated RMSE and R builds confidence in the retrieval error model and derived ASAR GM error estimates. The ASAR GM and Sentinel-1 have

  3. Evaluation of the predicted error of the soil moisture retrieval from C-band SAR by comparison against modelled soil moisture estimates over Australia

    PubMed Central

    Doubková, Marcela; Van Dijk, Albert I.J.M.; Sabel, Daniel; Wagner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

    2012-01-01

    The Sentinel-1 will carry onboard a C-band radar instrument that will map the European continent once every four days and the global land surface at least once every twelve days with finest 5 × 20 m spatial resolution. The high temporal sampling rate and operational configuration make Sentinel-1 of interest for operational soil moisture monitoring. Currently, updated soil moisture data are made available at 1 km spatial resolution as a demonstration service using Global Mode (GM) measurements from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) onboard ENVISAT. The service demonstrates the potential of the C-band observations to monitor variations in soil moisture. Importantly, a retrieval error estimate is also available; these are needed to assimilate observations into models. The retrieval error is estimated by propagating sensor errors through the retrieval model. In this work, the existing ASAR GM retrieval error product is evaluated using independent top soil moisture estimates produced by the grid-based landscape hydrological model (AWRA-L) developed within the Australian Water Resources Assessment system (AWRA). The ASAR GM retrieval error estimate, an assumed prior AWRA-L error estimate and the variance in the respective datasets were used to spatially predict the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient R between the two datasets. These were compared with the RMSE calculated directly from the two datasets. The predicted and computed RMSE showed a very high level of agreement in spatial patterns as well as good quantitative agreement; the RMSE was predicted within accuracy of 4% of saturated soil moisture over 89% of the Australian land mass. Predicted and calculated R maps corresponded within accuracy of 10% over 61% of the continent. The strong correspondence between the predicted and calculated RMSE and R builds confidence in the retrieval error model and derived ASAR GM error estimates. The ASAR GM and Sentinel-1 have

  4. Considerations on the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, D B; Zucca, J J; McCallen, D B; Pasyanos, M E; Flanagan, M P; Myers, S C; Walter, W R; Rodgers, A J; Harben, P E

    2007-07-09

    The use of 3-D geophysical models to predict nuclear test ban monitoring observables (phase travel times, amplitudes, dispersion, etc.) is widely anticipated to provide improvements in the basic seismic monitoring functions of detection, association, location, discrimination and yield estimation. A number of questions arise when contemplating a transition from 1-D, 2-D and 2.5-D models to constructing and using 3-D models, among them: (1) Can a 3-D geophysical model or a collection of 3-D models provide measurably improved predictions of seismic monitoring observables over existing 1-D models, or 2-D and 2 1/2-D models currently under development? (2) Is a single model that can predict all observables achievable, or must separate models be devised for each observable? How should joint inversion of disparate observable data be performed, if required? (3) What are the options for model representation? Are multi-resolution models essential? How does representation affect the accuracy and speed of observable predictions? (4) How should model uncertainty be estimated, represented and how should it be used? Are stochastic models desirable? (5) What data types should be used to construct the models? What quality control regime should be established? (6) How will 3-D models be used in operations? Will significant improvements in the basic monitoring functions result from the use of 3-D models? Will the calculation of observables through 3-D models be fast enough for real-time use or must a strategy of pre-computation be employed? (7) What are the theoretical limits to 3-D model development (resolution, uncertainty) and performance in predicting monitoring observables? How closely can those limits be approached with projected data availability, station distribution and inverse methods? (8) What priorities should be placed on the acquisition of event ground truth information, deployment of new stations, development of new inverse techniques, exploitation of large

  5. Southern Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    South-central Australia is home to several deserts, including the Simpson Desert, whose reddish-orange sands are seen in the upper left quadrant of this Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image from July 1, 2002. Several impermanent, salty, lakes stand whitely out against the arid terrain. The largest is North Lake Eyre, southwest of center. At bottom center, Spencer Gulf separates the triangular Eyre Peninsula from the Yorke Peninsula. The Gulf of St. Vincent separates Yorke Peninsula from the mainland. In Spencer Gulf, colorful blue-green swirls indicate the presence of a bloom of marine plants called phytoplankton, whose brightly colored photosynthetic pigments stain the water. Water quality in the Gulf is an ongoing problem for Australia, as irrigation projects have diverted the already small flow of freshwater that empties into the Gulf. Other problems include contamination with pesticides and agricultural and residential fertilizer. On both the Eyre Peninsula and in the Victoria Territory to the east of Spencer Gulf, dark-colored rectangles show the boundaries of parks and nature preserves where the natural, drought-tolerant vegetation thrives.

  6. Neural correlates of error monitoring in adolescents prospectively predict initiation of tobacco use.

    PubMed

    Anokhin, Andrey P; Golosheykin, Simon

    2015-12-01

    Deficits in self-regulation of behavior can play an important role in the initiation of substance use and progression to regular use and dependence. One of the distinct component processes of self-regulation is error monitoring, i.e. detection of a conflict between the intended and actually executed action. Here we examined whether a neural marker of error monitoring, Error-Related Negativity (ERN), predicts future initiation of tobacco use. ERN was assessed in a prospective longitudinal sample at ages 12, 14, and 16 using a flanker task. ERN amplitude showed a significant increase with age during adolescence. Reduced ERN amplitude at ages 14 and 16, as well as slower rate of its developmental changes significantly predicted initiation of tobacco use by age 18 but not transition to regular tobacco use or initiation of marijuana and alcohol use. The present results suggest that attenuated development of the neural mechanisms of error monitoring during adolescence can increase the risk for initiation of tobacco use. The present results also suggest that the role of distinct neurocognitive component processes involved in behavioral regulation may be limited to specific stages of addiction. PMID:26296779

  7. Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2016-01-01

    As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

  8. Research-Based Monitoring, Prediction, and Analysis Tools of the Spacecraft Charging Environment for Spacecraft Users

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti A.; Maddox, Marlo M.; Mays, Mona Leila

    2015-01-01

    The Space Weather Research Center (http://swrc. gsfc.nasa.gov) at NASA Goddard, part of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov), is committed to providing research-based forecasts and notifications to address NASA's space weather needs, in addition to its critical role in space weather education. It provides a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, tailored space weather alerts and products, and weekly summaries and reports. In this paper, we focus on how (near) real-time data (both in space and on ground), in combination with modeling capabilities and an innovative dissemination system called the integrated Space Weather Analysis system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), enable monitoring, analyzing, and predicting the spacecraft charging environment for spacecraft users. Relevant tools and resources are discussed.

  9. Monitoring and prediction in Early Warning Systems (EWS) for rapid mass movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stähli, M.; Sättele, M.; Huggel, C.; McArdell, B. W.; Lehmann, P.; Van Herwijnen, A.; Berne, A.; Schleiss, M.; Ferrari, A.; Kos, A.; Or, D.; Springman, S. M.

    2014-11-01

    Rapid mass movements (RMM) pose a substantial risk to people and infrastructure. Reliable and cost-efficient measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. One of these measures includes establishing and advancing the State of Practice in the application of Early Warning Systems (EWS). EWS have been developed during the past decades and are rapidly increasing. In this document, we focus on the technical part of EWS, i.e. the prediction and timely recognition of imminent hazards, as well as on monitoring slopes at risk and released mass movements. Recent innovations in assessing spatial precipitation, as well as monitoring and modelling precursors, the triggering and deformation of RMM offer new opportunities for next-generation EWS. However, technical advancement can only be transferred into more reliable, operational EWS with an intense dialog between scientists, engineers and those in charge of warning. To this end, further experience with new comprehensive prototype systems jointly operated by scientists and practitioners will be essential.

  10. Differences between fully Bayesian and pragmatic methods to assess predictive uncertainty and optimal monitoring designs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wöhling, Thomas; Geiges, Andreas; Gosses, Moritz; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    Data acquisition for monitoring the state in different compartments of complex, coupled environmental systems is often time consuming and expensive. Therefore, experimental monitoring strategies are ideally designed such that most can be learned about the system at minimal costs. Bayesian methods for uncertainty quantification and optimal design (OD) of monitoring strategies are well suited to handle the non-linearity exhibited by most coupled environmental systems. However, their high computational demand restricts their applicability to models with comparatively low run-times. Therefore, pragmatic approaches have been used predominantly in the past where data worth and OD analyses have been restricted to linear or linearised problems and methods. Bayesian (nonlinear) and pragmatic (linear) OD approaches are founded on different assumptions and typically follow different steps in the modelling chain of 1) model calibration, 2) uncertainty quantification, and 3) optimal design analysis. The goal of this study is to follow through these steps for a Bayesian and a pragmatic approach and to discuss the impact of different assumptions (prior uncertainty), calibration strategies, and OD analysis methods on the proposed monitoring designs and their reliability to reduce predictive uncertainty. The OD framework PreDIA (Leube et al. 2012) is used for the nonlinear assessment with a conditional model ensemble obtained with Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulation representing the initial predictive uncertainty. PreDIA can consider any kind of uncertainties and non-linear (statistical) dependencies in data, models, parameters and system drivers during the OD process. In the pragmatic OD approach, the parameter calibration was performed with a non-linear global search and the initial predictive uncertainty was estimated using the PREDUNC utility (Moore and Doherty 2005) of PEST. PREDUNC was also used for the linear OD analysis. We applied PreDIA and PREDUNC for uncertainty

  11. Individual Differences in Fifth Graders' Literacy and Academic Language Predict Comprehension Monitoring Development: An Eye-Movement Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we investigated fifth graders' (n = 52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task,…

  12. Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

    PubMed

    Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

    2014-09-01

    Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology.

  13. Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

    PubMed

    Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

    2014-09-01

    Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology. PMID:25083792

  14. Internet-based monitoring and prediction system of coal stockpile behaviors under atmospheric conditions.

    PubMed

    Yilmaz, Nihat; Ozdeniz, A Hadi

    2010-03-01

    Spontaneous combustion on industrial-scale stockpiles causes environmental problems and economic losses for the companies consuming large amounts of coal. In this study, an effective monitoring and prediction system based on internet was developed and implemented to prevent losses and environmental problems. The system was performed in a coal stockpile with 5 m width, 10 m length, 3 m height, and having 120 t of weight. The inner temperature data of the stockpile was recorded by 17 temperature sensors placed inside the stockpile at certain points. Additionally, the data relating to the air temperature, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, and wind direction that are the parameters affecting the coal stockpile were also recorded. The recorded values were analyzed with artificial neural network and Statistical modeling methods for prediction of spontaneous combustion. Real-time measurement values and model outputs were published with a web page on internet. The internet-based system can also provide real-time monitoring (combustion alarms, system status) and tele-controlling (Parameter adjusting, system control) through internet exclusively with a standard web browser without the need of any additional software.

  15. Network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories for earthquake prediction research in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhuri, Hirok; Barman, Chiranjib; Iyengar, A.; Ghose, Debasis; Sen, Prasanta; Sinha, Bikash

    2013-08-01

    Present paper deals with a brief review of the research carried out to develop multi-parametric gas-geochemical monitoring facilities dedicated to earthquake prediction research in India by installing a network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories at different regions of the country. In an attempt to detect earthquake precursors, the concentrations of helium, argon, nitrogen, methane, radon-222 (222Rn), polonium-218 (218Po), and polonium-214 (214Po) emanating from hydrothermal systems are monitored continuously and round the clock at these observatories. In this paper, we make a cross correlation study of a number of geochemical anomalies recorded at these observatories. With the data received from each of the above observatories we attempt to make a time series analysis to relate magnitude and epicentral distance locations through statistical methods, empirical formulations that relate the area of influence to earthquake scale. Application of the linear and nonlinear statistical techniques in the recorded geochemical data sets reveal a clear signature of long-range correlation in the data sets.

  16. Predicting stump healing following amputation for peripheral vascular disease using the transcutaneous oxygen monitor.

    PubMed Central

    Dowd, G. S.

    1987-01-01

    In patients with peripheral vascular disease requiring amputation, a below-knee stump is likely to result in improved function compared to above-knee. Unfortunately, clinical assessment of skin circulation is inaccurate, making the decision of amputation level difficult. The transcutaneous oxygen monitor has been investigated as a method of assessing skin circulation. A prospective study using the monitor in 51 amputations based on clinical assessment has shown that a transcutaneous oxygen tension (tcPO2) greater than 40 mm Hg is associated with stump healing, while measurements below that level lead to an unpredictable outcome. Half of the patients undergoing above-knee amputation had a tcPO2 level greater than 40 mm Hg at the below-knee site, suggesting that a successful distal amputation might have been performed. A further prospective study of 50 patients requiring amputation for peripheral gangrene showed that when amputations were performed at the lowest level in the limb with a tcPO2 greater than 40 mm Hg there was a higher rate of below-knee amputations (72%) and a higher rate of successful stump healing. Review of the literature confirms the potential of the monitor as a non-invasive, simple and accurate method of predicting stump healing. Images Fig. 1 PMID:3566115

  17. Monitor units are not predictive of neutron dose for high-energy IMRT

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Due to the substantial increase in beam-on time of high energy intensity-modulated radiotherapy (>10 MV) techniques to deliver the same target dose compared to conventional treatment techniques, an increased dose of scatter radiation, including neutrons, is delivered to the patient. As a consequence, an increase in second malignancies may be expected in the future with the application of intensity-modulated radiotherapy. It is commonly assumed that the neutron dose equivalent scales with the number of monitor units. Methods Measurements of neutron dose equivalent were performed for an open and an intensity-modulated field at four positions: inside and outside of the treatment field at 0.2 cm and 15 cm depth, respectively. Results It was shown that the neutron dose equivalent, which a patient receives during an intensity-modulated radiotherapy treatment, does not scale with the ratio of applied monitor units relative to an open field irradiation. Outside the treatment volume at larger depth 35% less neutron dose equivalent is delivered than expected. Conclusions The predicted increase of second cancer induction rates from intensity-modulated treatment techniques can be overestimated when the neutron dose is simply scaled with monitor units. PMID:22883384

  18. Tuberculosis notifications in Australia, 2011.

    PubMed

    Bareja, Christina; Waring, Justin; Stapledon, Richard; Toms, Cindy; Douglas, Paul

    2014-12-31

    The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System received 1,385 tuberculosis (TB) notifications in 2011, representing a rate of 6.2 cases per 100,000 population. While Australia has maintained a rate of 5 to 6 cases per 100,000 for TB since the mid-1980s, there has been a steady increase in incidence over the past decade. In 2011, Australia's overseas-born population continued to represent the majority of TB notifications (88%) with a notification rate of 20.2 per 100,000. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born Indigenous population has fluctuated over the last decade and showed no clear trend; however, in 2011 the notification rate was 4.9 per 100,000, which is a notable decrease from the 7.5 per 100,000 recorded in 2010. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born non-Indigenous population has continued to remain low at 0.9 per 100,000. Australia continued to record only a small number of multi-drug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) cases nationally (n=25), all of which were identified in the overseas-born population. To ensure that Australia can retain its low TB rate and work toward reducing rates further, it is essential that Australia maintains good centralised national TB reporting to monitor trends and identify at-risk populations, and continues to contribute to global TB control initiatives.

  19. Prediction of Tumor Recurrence and Therapy Monitoring Using Ultrasound-Guided Photoacoustic Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Mallidi, Srivalleesha; Watanabe, Kohei; Timerman, Dmitriy; Schoenfeld, David; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2015-01-01

    Selection and design of individualized treatments remains a key goal in cancer therapeutics; prediction of response and tumor recurrence following a given therapy provides a basis for subsequent personalized treatment design. We demonstrate an approach towards this goal with the example of photodynamic therapy (PDT) as the treatment modality and photoacoustic imaging (PAI) as a non-invasive, response and disease recurrence monitor in a murine model of glioblastoma (GBM). PDT is a photochemistry-based, clinically-used technique that consumes oxygen to generate cytotoxic species, thus causing changes in blood oxygen saturation (StO2). We hypothesize that this change in StO2 can be a surrogate marker for predicting treatment efficacy and tumor recurrence. PAI is a technique that can provide a 3D atlas of tumor StO2 by measuring oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin. We demonstrate that tumors responding to PDT undergo approximately 85% change in StO2 by 24-hrs post-therapy while there is no significant change in StO2 values in the non-responding group. Furthermore, the 3D tumor StO2 maps predicted whether a tumor was likely to regrow at a later time point post-therapy. Information on the likelihood of tumor regrowth that normally would have been available only upon actual regrowth (10-30 days post treatment) in a xenograft tumor model, was available within 24-hrs of treatment using PAI, thus making early intervention a possibility. Given the advances and push towards availability of PAI in the clinical settings, the results of this study encourage applicability of PAI as an important step to guide and monitor therapies (e.g. PDT, radiation, anti-angiogenic) involving a change in StO2. PMID:25553116

  20. Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth A. Yackly

    2005-12-01

    The ''Enabling & Information Technology To Increase RAM for Advanced Powerplants'' program, by DOE request, was re-directed, de-scoped to two tasks, shortened to a 2-year period of performance, and refocused to develop, validate and accelerate the commercial use of enabling materials technologies and sensors for coal/IGCC powerplants. The new program was re-titled ''Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants''. This final report summarizes the work accomplished from March 1, 2003 to March 31, 2004 on the four original tasks, and the work accomplished from April 1, 2004 to July 30, 2005 on the two re-directed tasks. The program Tasks are summarized below: Task 1--IGCC Environmental Impact on high Temperature Materials: The first task was refocused to address IGCC environmental impacts on high temperature materials used in gas turbines. This task screened material performance and quantified the effects of high temperature erosion and corrosion of hot gas path materials in coal/IGCC applications. The materials of interest included those in current service as well as advanced, high-performance alloys and coatings. Task 2--Material In-Service Health Monitoring: The second task was reduced in scope to demonstrate new technologies to determine the inservice health of advanced technology coal/IGCC powerplants. The task focused on two critical sensing needs for advanced coal/IGCC gas turbines: (1) Fuel Quality Sensor to rapidly determine the fuel heating value for more precise control of the gas turbine, and detection of fuel impurities that could lead to rapid component degradation. (2) Infra-Red Pyrometer to continuously measure the temperature of gas turbine buckets, nozzles, and combustor hardware. Task 3--Advanced Methods for Combustion Monitoring and Control: The third task was originally to develop and validate advanced monitoring and control methods for coal/IGCC gas turbine combustion systems. This task was

  1. Performance of ANFIS versus MLP-NN dissolved oxygen prediction models in water quality monitoring.

    PubMed

    Najah, A; El-Shafie, A; Karim, O A; El-Shafie, Amr H

    2014-02-01

    We discuss the accuracy and performance of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in training and prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. The model was used to analyze historical data generated through continuous monitoring of water quality parameters at several stations on the Johor River to predict DO concentrations. Four water quality parameters were selected for ANFIS modeling, including temperature, pH, nitrate (NO3) concentration, and ammoniacal nitrogen concentration (NH3-NL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the input parameters. The inputs with the greatest effect were those related to oxygen content (NO3) or oxygen demand (NH3-NL). Temperature was the parameter with the least effect, whereas pH provided the lowest contribution to the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the model, three statistical indices were used: the coefficient of determination (R (2)), the mean absolute prediction error, and the correlation coefficient. The performance of the ANFIS model was compared with an artificial neural network model. The ANFIS model was capable of providing greater accuracy, particularly in the case of extreme events. PMID:23949111

  2. Lumped Parameter Modeling as a Predictive Tool for a Battery Status Monitor

    SciTech Connect

    Jon P. Christophersen; Chester G. Motloch; Chinh D. Ho; John L. Morrison; Ronald C. Fenton; Vincent S. Battaglia; Tien Q. Duong

    2003-10-01

    The Advanced Technology Development Program is currently evaluating the performance of the second generation of lithium-ion cells (i.e., Gen 2 cells). Both the Gen 2 Baseline and Variant C cells are tested in accordance with the cell-specific test plan, and are removed at roughly equal power fade increments and sent for destructive diagnostic analysis. The diagnostic laboratories did not need all test cells for analysis, and returned five spare cells to the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). INEEL used these cells for special pulse testing at various duty cycles, amplitudes, and durations to investigate the usefulness of the lumped parameter model (LPM) as a predictive tool in a battery status monitor (BSM). The LPM is a simplified linear model that accurately predicts the voltage response during certain pulse conditions. A database of parameter trends should enable dynamic predictions of state-of-charge and state-of-health conditions during in-vehicle pulsing. This information could be used by the BSM to provide accurate information to the vehicle control system.

  3. Performance of ANFIS versus MLP-NN dissolved oxygen prediction models in water quality monitoring.

    PubMed

    Najah, A; El-Shafie, A; Karim, O A; El-Shafie, Amr H

    2014-02-01

    We discuss the accuracy and performance of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in training and prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. The model was used to analyze historical data generated through continuous monitoring of water quality parameters at several stations on the Johor River to predict DO concentrations. Four water quality parameters were selected for ANFIS modeling, including temperature, pH, nitrate (NO3) concentration, and ammoniacal nitrogen concentration (NH3-NL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the input parameters. The inputs with the greatest effect were those related to oxygen content (NO3) or oxygen demand (NH3-NL). Temperature was the parameter with the least effect, whereas pH provided the lowest contribution to the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the model, three statistical indices were used: the coefficient of determination (R (2)), the mean absolute prediction error, and the correlation coefficient. The performance of the ANFIS model was compared with an artificial neural network model. The ANFIS model was capable of providing greater accuracy, particularly in the case of extreme events.

  4. Sydney, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    This image was acquired on October 12, 2002 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER will image Earth for the next 6 years to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.

    ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18,1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products. Dr. Anne Kahle at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, is the U.S. Science team leader; Bjorn Eng of JPL is the project manager. ASTER is the only high resolution imaging sensor on Terra. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, along-term research and technology program designed to examine Earth's land, oceans, atmosphere, ice and life as a total integrated system.

    The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; wetlands evaluation; thermal pollution monitoring; coral reef degradation; surface temperature mapping of soils and geology; and measuring surface heat balance.

    Size: 42 x 32 km (25.1 x 19.2 miles) Location: 33.7 deg. South lat., 151.4 deg. East long. Orientation: North at top Image Data: ASTER bands 1,2, and 3. Original Data Resolution: 15 m Date Acquired: October 12, 2001

  5. Ocean currents influence the genetic structure of an intertidal mollusc in southeastern Australia – implications for predicting the movement of passive dispersers across a marine biogeographic barrier

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Adam D; Versace, Vincent L; Matthews, Ty G; Montgomery, Steven; Bowie, Kate C

    2013-01-01

    Major disjunctions among marine communities in southeastern Australia have been well documented, although explanations for biogeographic structuring remain uncertain. Converging ocean currents, environmental gradients, and habitat discontinuities have been hypothesized as likely drivers of structuring in many species, although the extent to which species are affected appears largely dependent on specific life histories and ecologies. Understanding these relationships is critical to the management of native and invasive species, and the preservation of evolutionary processes that shape biodiversity in this region. In this study we test the direct influence of ocean currents on the genetic structure of a passive disperser across a major biogeographic barrier. Donax deltoides (Veneroida: Donacidae) is an intertidal, soft-sediment mollusc and an ideal surrogate for testing this relationship, given its lack of habitat constraints in this region, and its immense dispersal potential driven by year-long spawning and long-lived planktonic larvae. We assessed allele frequencies at 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci across 11 sample locations spanning the barrier region and identified genetic structure consistent with the major ocean currents of southeastern Australia. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA sequence data indicated no evidence of genetic structuring, but signatures of a species range expansion corresponding with historical inundations of the Bassian Isthmus. Our results indicate that ocean currents are likely to be the most influential factor affecting the genetic structure of D. deltoides and a likely physical barrier for passive dispersing marine fauna generally in southeastern Australia. PMID:23762511

  6. Planning Australia's hospital workforce.

    PubMed

    Harris, Mary; Gavel, Paul; Conn, Warwick

    2002-01-01

    Growing government support has been evident during the past decade for macro-level workforce planning to ensure that future populations have access to appropriate health care services. Population ageing is impacting on workforce requirements and on workforce supply within Australia and internationally. Changes in financing and the organisation of health services are impacting on the availability of training and on the quality of working life. The age and gender profile and career expectations of young Australians are changing. These factors are all adding to the importance and complexity of workforce planning. This paper draws on data from various sources to describe Australia's hospital workforce, to explore supply-side workforce trends and to discuss some contemporary issues of concern to policy makers and workforce planners. The paper finds that in recent years there has been a 3 per cent decline in the number of full time equivalent staff in public hospitals, while the number in the private hospital workforce has increased by 28 per cent. The paper concludes that, nationally, there are serious limitations in the data available to describe and monitor the hospital workforce and that there is a need to remedy this situation.

  7. Multiscale Modeling of Advanced Materials for Damage Prediction and Structural Health Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkowski, Luke

    Advanced aerospace materials, including fiber reinforced polymer and ceramic matrix composites, are increasingly being used in critical and demanding applications, challenging the current damage prediction, detection, and quantification methodologies. Multiscale computational models offer key advantages over traditional analysis techniques and can provide the necessary capabilities for the development of a comprehensive virtual structural health monitoring (SHM) framework. Virtual SHM has the potential to drastically improve the design and analysis of aerospace components through coupling the complementary capabilities of models able to predict the initiation and propagation of damage under a wide range of loading and environmental scenarios, simulate interrogation methods for damage detection and quantification, and assess the health of a structure. A major component of the virtual SHM framework involves having micromechanics-based multiscale composite models that can provide the elastic, inelastic, and damage behavior of composite material systems under mechanical and thermal loading conditions and in the presence of microstructural complexity and variability. Quantification of the role geometric and architectural variability in the composite microstructure plays in the local and global composite behavior is essential to the development of appropriate scale-dependent unit cells and boundary conditions for the multiscale model. Once the composite behavior is predicted and variability effects assessed, wave-based SHM simulation models serve to provide knowledge on the probability of detection and characterization accuracy of damage present in the composite. The research presented in this dissertation provides the foundation for a comprehensive SHM framework for advanced aerospace materials. The developed models enhance the prediction of damage formation as a result of ceramic matrix composite processing, improve the understanding of the effects of architectural and

  8. An integrated Modelling framework to monitor and predict trends of agricultural management (iMSoil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Armin; Della Peruta, Raneiro; Schaepman, Michael; Gomez, Marta; Mann, Stefan; Schulin, Rainer

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural systems lay at the interface between natural ecosystems and the anthroposphere. Various drivers induce pressures on the agricultural systems, leading to changes in farming practice. The limitation of available land and the socio-economic drivers are likely to result in further intensification of agricultural land management, with implications on fertilization practices, soil and pest management, as well as crop and livestock production. In order to steer the development into desired directions, tools are required by which the effects of these pressures on agricultural management and resulting impacts on soil functioning can be detected as early as possible, future scenarios predicted and suitable management options and policies defined. In this context, the use of integrated models can play a major role in providing long-term predictions of soil quality and assessing the sustainability of agricultural soil management. Significant progress has been made in this field over the last decades. Some of these integrated modelling frameworks include biophysical parameters, but often the inherent characteristics and detailed processes of the soil system have been very simplified. The development of such tools has been hampered in the past by a lack of spatially explicit soil and land management information at regional scale. The iMSoil project, funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the national research programme NRP68 "soil as a resource" (www.nrp68.ch) aims at developing and implementing an integrated modeling framework (IMF) which can overcome the limitations mentioned above, by combining socio-economic, agricultural land management, and biophysical models, in order to predict the long-term impacts of different socio-economic scenarios on the soil quality. In our presentation we briefly outline the approach that is based on an interdisciplinary modular framework that builds on already existing monitoring tools and model components that are

  9. An integrated climate service strategy for African drought monitoring and prediction: linking information to action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C.; Verdin, J. P.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M.

    2008-12-01

    For 23 years, the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has applied climate data analysis in support of timely food insecurity mitigation and adaptation in Africa. FEWS NET, therefore, provides a compelling example of a sector-specific climate service. We briefly review the phases, successes and shortcomings of the FEWS NET climate service, describe an improved long term climate service strategy, and present new research supporting an improved, integrated drought monitoring approach. Our new monitoring system emphasizes seamless links between historical precipitation archives, near real-time rainfall estimates, and 1-to-4 month statistical predictions. Assessment of forecast skill shows useful levels of accuracy for many regions during key periods of the growing season. Integrating these forecasts with near real time blended satellite-gauge precipitation observations facilitates early identification of mid-season agricultural drought. Integrated historical climate archives (1979-present) permit analysis of observed and forecast climate conditions in terms of historical probabilities and analogs. Tools specific to staple crops and pastoralist settings are then used to assess the likely impacts of hydrometeorological anomalies. These are geographically integrated with livelihoods information and interpreted in terms of current food security conditions and timelines to determine human consequences. A client-server web-mapping data portal will allow users to dynamically access the climate anomaly information, and visualize the results in conjunction with livelihood information.

  10. Direct Pressure Monitoring Accurately Predicts Pulmonary Vein Occlusion During Cryoballoon Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Kosmidou, Ioanna; Wooden, Shannnon; Jones, Brian; Deering, Thomas; Wickliffe, Andrew; Dan, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Cryoballoon ablation (CBA) is an established therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF). Pulmonary vein (PV) occlusion is essential for achieving antral contact and PV isolation and is typically assessed by contrast injection. We present a novel method of direct pressure monitoring for assessment of PV occlusion. Transcatheter pressure is monitored during balloon advancement to the PV antrum. Pressure is recorded via a single pressure transducer connected to the inner lumen of the cryoballoon. Pressure curve characteristics are used to assess occlusion in conjunction with fluoroscopic or intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) guidance. PV occlusion is confirmed when loss of typical left atrial (LA) pressure waveform is observed with recordings of PA pressure characteristics (no A wave and rapid V wave upstroke). Complete pulmonary vein occlusion as assessed with this technique has been confirmed with concurrent contrast utilization during the initial testing of the technique and has been shown to be highly accurate and readily reproducible. We evaluated the efficacy of this novel technique in 35 patients. A total of 128 veins were assessed for occlusion with the cryoballoon utilizing the pressure monitoring technique; occlusive pressure was demonstrated in 113 veins with resultant successful pulmonary vein isolation in 111 veins (98.2%). Occlusion was confirmed with subsequent contrast injection during the initial ten procedures, after which contrast utilization was rapidly reduced or eliminated given the highly accurate identification of occlusive pressure waveform with limited initial training. Verification of PV occlusive pressure during CBA is a novel approach to assessing effective PV occlusion and it accurately predicts electrical isolation. Utilization of this method results in significant decrease in fluoroscopy time and volume of contrast. PMID:23485956

  11. Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    This detailed view of the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia (19.5S, 149.5E) shows several small patch reefs within the overall reef system. The Great Barrier Reef, largest in the world, comprises thousands of individual reefs of great variety and are closely monitored by marine ecologists. These reefs are about 6000 years old and sit on top of much older reefs. The most rapid coral growth occurs on the landward side of the reefs.

  12. Molecular Similarity Methods for Predicting Cross-Reactivity With Therapeutic Drug Monitoring Immunoassays

    PubMed Central

    Krasowski, Matthew D.; Siam, Mohamed G.; Iyer, Manisha; Ekins, Sean

    2010-01-01

    Immunoassays are used for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) yet may suffer from cross-reacting compounds able to bind the assay antibodies in a manner similar to the target molecule. To our knowledge, there has been no investigation using computational tools to predict cross-reactivity with TDM immunoassays. The authors used molecular similarity methods to enable calculation of structural similarity for a wide range of compounds (prescription and over-the-counter medications, illicit drugs, and clinically significant metabolites) to the target molecules of TDM immunoassays. Utilizing different molecular descriptors (MDL public keys, functional class fingerprints, and pharmacophore fingerprints) and the Tanimoto similarity coefficient, the authors compared cross-reactivity data in the package inserts of immunoassays marketed for in vitro diagnostic use. Using MDL public keys and the Tanimoto similarity coefficient showed a strong and statistically significant separation between cross-reactive and non-cross-reactive compounds. Thus, two-dimensional shape similarity of cross-reacting molecules and the target molecules of TDM immunoassays provides a fast chemoinformatics methods for a priori prediction of potential of cross-reactivity that might be otherwise undetected. These methods could be used to reliably focus cross-reactivity testing on compounds with high similarity to the target molecule and limit testing of compounds with low similarity and ultimately with a very low probability of cross-reacting with the assay in vitro. PMID:19333148

  13. Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Xue, X.; Flamig, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A Hydrometeorological Extreme Mapping and Prediction System (HyXtreme-MaP), initially built upon the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, is driven by real-time quasi-global TRMM/GPM satellites and by the US Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar network with dual-polarimetric upgrade to simulate streamflow, actual ET, soil moisture and other hydrologic variables at 1/8th degree resolution quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) and at 250-meter 2.5-mintue resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS: http://flash.ou.edu).­ Multifaceted and collaborative by-design, this end-to-end research framework aims to not only integrate data, models, and applications but also brings people together (i.e., NOAA, NASA, University researchers, and end-users). This presentation will review the progresses, challenges and opportunities of such HyXTREME-MaP System used to monitor global floods and droughts, and also to predict flash floods over the CONUS.

  14. Remote health monitoring: predicting outcome success based on contextual features for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Liu, Jason J; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have produced a plethora of remote health monitoring (RHM) systems designed to enhance the care of patients with chronic diseases. Many RHM systems are designed to improve patient risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including physiological parameters such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, and lipid profiles such as low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL). There are several patient characteristics that could be determining factors for a patient's RHM outcome success, but these characteristics have been largely unidentified. In this paper, we analyze results from an RHM system deployed in a six month Women's Heart Health study of 90 patients, and apply advanced feature selection and machine learning algorithms to identify patients' key baseline contextual features and build effective prediction models that help determine RHM outcome success. We introduce Wanda-CVD, a smartphone-based RHM system designed to help participants with cardiovascular disease risk factors by motivating participants through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. We analyze key contextual features that secure positive patient outcomes in both physiological parameters and lipid profiles. Results from the Women's Heart Health study show that health threat of heart disease, quality of life, family history, stress factors, social support, and anxiety at baseline all help predict patient RHM outcome success. PMID:25570321

  15. FBG Sensor for Contact Level Monitoring and Prediction of Perforation in Cardiac Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Siu Chun Michael; Razavi, Mehdi; Nazeri, Alireza; Song, Gangbing

    2012-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of arrhythmia, and is characterized by a disordered contractile activity of the atria (top chambers of the heart). A popular treatment for AF is radiofrequency (RF) ablation. In about 2.4% of cardiac RF ablation procedures, the catheter is accidently pushed through the heart wall due to the application of excessive force. Despite the various capabilities of currently available technology, there has yet to be any data establishing how cardiac perforation can be reliably predicted. Thus, two new FBG based sensor prototypes were developed to monitor contact levels and predict perforation. Two live sheep were utilized during the study. It was observed during operation that peaks appeared in rhythm with the heart rate whenever firm contact was made between the sensor and the endocardial wall. The magnitude of these peaks varied with pressure applied by the operator. Lastly, transmural perforation of the left atrial wall was characterized by a visible loading phase and a rapid signal drop-off correlating to perforation. A possible pre-perforation signal was observed for the epoxy-based sensor in the form of a slight signal reversal (12–26% of loading phase magnitude) prior to perforation (occurring over 8 s). PMID:22368507

  16. Remote health monitoring: predicting outcome success based on contextual features for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Liu, Jason J; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have produced a plethora of remote health monitoring (RHM) systems designed to enhance the care of patients with chronic diseases. Many RHM systems are designed to improve patient risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including physiological parameters such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, and lipid profiles such as low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL). There are several patient characteristics that could be determining factors for a patient's RHM outcome success, but these characteristics have been largely unidentified. In this paper, we analyze results from an RHM system deployed in a six month Women's Heart Health study of 90 patients, and apply advanced feature selection and machine learning algorithms to identify patients' key baseline contextual features and build effective prediction models that help determine RHM outcome success. We introduce Wanda-CVD, a smartphone-based RHM system designed to help participants with cardiovascular disease risk factors by motivating participants through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. We analyze key contextual features that secure positive patient outcomes in both physiological parameters and lipid profiles. Results from the Women's Heart Health study show that health threat of heart disease, quality of life, family history, stress factors, social support, and anxiety at baseline all help predict patient RHM outcome success.

  17. Application of NCEP Land Data Assimilation Systems for Global and Regional Drought Analysis, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ek, M. B.; Xia, Y.; Meng, C. J.; Dong, J.

    2012-12-01

    Currently, NCEP/EMC includes three Land Data Assimilation Systems (LDASs): (1) Global LDAS (GLDAS), (2) North American LDAS (NLDAS), and (3) high resolution NLDAS on the Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project (HRAP) grid (HRAP-NLDAS). GLDAS was developed to provide initial conditions for NCEP coupled global weather and climate models, NLDAS to provide hydrometeorological products to support the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and HRAP-NLDAS for long-term and near real-time high-resolution (~4 km) hydrometeorological products to support hydrological research and application at National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers and the Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). These three systems are independent but closely related. The core model of the three systems is the NCEP operational land surface model (Noah) and the OHD operational hydrological model (SAC-HT); two additional land surface/hydrological models are used in NLDAS. The three systems are all moving towards being used for global and regional drought analysis, monitoring and prediction. The uncoupled GLDAS used the Noah land model in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), with blended atmospheric model and observed precipitation forcing used to generate long-term (1979-present) global hydrometeorological products (at ~38 km) as part of the proposed Global Drought Information System (GDIS) in association with the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projection (MAPP) Drought Task Force; use of GLDAS/Noah continues in the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). NLDAS is a quasi-operational system that supports U.S. operational drought monitoring and seasonal hydrological prediction, in particular for NIDIS. One key application of the near real-time updates is drought monitoring over the Continental United States (CONUS), shown at the "NLDAS Drought" tab of the NLDAS website (www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas). NLDAS is mature

  18. Prediction of endotracheal intubation outcome in opioid-poisoned patients: A clinical approach to bispectral monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Eizadi-Mood, Nastaran; Yaraghi, Ahmad; Alikhasi, Mahsa; Jabalameli, Mitra; Farsaei, Shadi; Sabzghabaee, Ali Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Some opioid-poisoned patients do not respond appropriately to naloxone; consequently, intubation is required. Although various measures have been used to evaluate the level of consciousness of poisoned patients, no study has assessed the role of the bispectral index (BIS) to ascertain the depth of anesthesia in opioid-poisoned patients who require endotracheal intubation. OBJECTIVE: To compare BIS scores between opioid-poisoned patients with and without intubation, and to determine the BIS cut-off point for endotracheal intubation in these patients. METHODS: In the present cross-sectional study, conducted in an Iranian university referral hospital for poisoning emergencies between 2012 and 2013, opioid-poisoned patients (n=41) were divided into two groups according to their requirement for endotracheal intubation. BIS analyses were performed at the time of admission and at the time of intubation for those who required it. In addition, electromyography and signal quality index were evaluated for all patients at the time of admission, and cardiorespiratory monitoring was performed during the hospitalization period. Using ROC curves, and sensitivity and specificity analyses, the optimal BIS cut-off point for prediction of intubation of these patients was determined. RESULTS: The optimal cut-off point for prediction of intubation was BIS ≤78, which had a sensitivity of 86.7% (95% CI 66.1 to 98.8) and specificity of 88.5% (95% CI 73.9% to 98.8%); the positive and negative predictive values were 81.2 % and 92%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: BIS may be considered an acceptable index to determine the need for intubation in opioid-poisoned patients whose response to naloxone is inadequate. PMID:26078616

  19. Australia's Political Structure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sawer, Geoffrey

    1984-01-01

    Australia is an independent nation-state, federally constituted under a democratic parliamentary system. Being part of the Commonwealth of Nations, with feelings of loyalty to the Crown, Australia is also a democratic monarchy. Its political structure is discussed. (RM)

  20. WIFIRE: A Scalable Data-Driven Monitoring, Dynamic Prediction and Resilience Cyberinfrastructure for Wildfires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altintas, I.; Block, J.; Braun, H.; de Callafon, R. A.; Gollner, M. J.; Smarr, L.; Trouve, A.

    2013-12-01

    Recent studies confirm that climate change will cause wildfires to increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades especially for California and in much of the North American West. The most critical sustainability issue in the midst of these ever-changing dynamics is how to achieve a new social-ecological equilibrium of this fire ecology. Wildfire wind speeds and directions change in an instant, and first responders can only be effective when they take action as quickly as the conditions change. To deliver information needed for sustainable policy and management in this dynamically changing fire regime, we must capture these details to understand the environmental processes. We are building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WIFIRE, for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. The WIFIRE integrated CI system supports social-ecological resilience to the changing fire ecology regime in the face of urban dynamics and climate change. Networked observations, e.g., heterogeneous satellite data and real-time remote sensor data is integrated with computational techniques in signal processing, visualization, modeling and data assimilation to provide a scalable, technological, and educational solution to monitor weather patterns to predict a wildfire's Rate of Spread. Our collaborative WIFIRE team of scientists, engineers, technologists, government policy managers, private industry, and firefighters architects implement CI pathways that enable joint innovation for wildfire management. Scientific workflows are used as an integrative distributed programming model and simplify the implementation of engineering modules for data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization while allowing integration with large-scale computing facilities. WIFIRE will be scalable to users with different skill-levels via specialized web interfaces and user-specified alerts for environmental events broadcasted to receivers before

  1. Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in COAL IGCC Powerplants

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth A. Yackly

    2004-09-30

    The ''Enabling & Information Technology To Increase RAM for Advanced Powerplants'' program, by DOE request, has been re-directed, de-scoped to two tasks, shortened to a 2-year period of performance, and refocused to develop, validate and accelerate the commercial use of enabling materials technologies and sensors for Coal IGCC powerplants. The new program has been re-titled as ''Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants'' to better match the new scope. This technical progress report summarizes the work accomplished in the reporting period April 1, 2004 to August 31, 2004 on the revised Re-Directed and De-Scoped program activity. The program Tasks are: Task 1--IGCC Environmental Impact on high Temperature Materials: This first materials task has been refocused to address Coal IGCC environmental impacts on high temperature materials use in gas turbines and remains in the program. This task will screen material performance and quantify the effects of high temperature erosion and corrosion of hot gas path materials in Coal IGCC applications. The materials of interest will include those in current service as well as advanced, high-performance alloys and coatings. Task 2--Material In-Service Health Monitoring: This second task develops and demonstrates new sensor technologies to determine the in-service health of advanced technology Coal IGCC powerplants, and remains in the program with a reduced scope. Its focus is now on only two critical sensor need areas for advanced Coal IGCC gas turbines: (1) Fuel Quality Sensor for detection of fuel impurities that could lead to rapid component degradation, and a Fuel Heating Value Sensor to rapidly determine the fuel heating value for more precise control of the gas turbine, and (2) Infra-Red Pyrometer to continuously measure the temperature of gas turbine buckets, nozzles, and combustor hardware.

  2. Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; De, S.; Goswami, B. N.; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  3. Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Endo, E.T.; Murray, T.

    1991-01-01

    Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to

  4. A Cloud Based Framework For Monitoring And Predicting Subsurface System Behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Versteeg, R. J.; Rodzianko, A.; Johnson, D. V.; Soltanian, M. R.; Dwivedi, D.; Dafflon, B.; Tran, A. P.; Versteeg, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Subsurface system behavior is driven and controlled by the interplay of physical, chemical, and biological processes which occur at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Capabilities to monitor, understand and predict this behavior in an effective and timely manner are needed for both scientific purposes and for effective subsurface system management. Such capabilities require three elements: Models, Data and an enabling cyberinfrastructure, which allow users to use these models and data in an effective manner. Under a DOE Office of Science funded STTR award Subsurface Insights and LBNL have designed and implemented a cloud based predictive assimilation framework (PAF) which automatically ingests, controls quality and stores heterogeneous physical and chemical subsurface data and processes these data using different inversion and modeling codes to provide information on the current state and evolution of subsurface systems. PAF is implemented as a modular cloud based software application with five components: (1) data acquisition, (2) data management, (3) data assimilation and processing, (4) visualization and result delivery and (5) orchestration. Serverside PAF uses ZF2 (a PHP web application framework) and Python and both open source (ODM2) and in house developed data models. Clientside PAF uses CSS and JS to allow for interactive data visualization and analysis. Client side modularity (which allows for a responsive interface) of the system is achieved by implementing each core capability of PAF (such as data visualization, user configuration and control, electrical geophysical monitoring and email/SMS alerts on data streams) as a SPA (Single Page Application). One of the recent enhancements is the full integration of a number of flow and mass transport and parameter estimation codes (e.g., MODFLOW, MT3DMS, PHT3D, TOUGH, PFLOTRAN) in this framework. This integration allows for autonomous and user controlled modeling of hydrological and geochemical processes. In

  5. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, N.; Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; de, S.; Goswami, B.; Kumar, A.

    2013-12-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  6. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, Nabanita; Sukumarpillai, Abhilash; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Joseph, Susmitha; De, Soumyendu; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  7. Is the incidence of heart attack still decreasing in Australia? Developing reliable methods for monitoring trends in myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease (AUS-MOCHA): a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Nedkoff, Lee; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael S T; Hung, Joseph; Mathur, Sushma; Beilby, John; Reynolds, Anna; Briffa, Tom G; Lopez, Derrick

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Accurate monitoring of acute coronary heart disease (CHD) is essential for understanding the effects of primary and secondary prevention and for planning of healthcare services. The ability to reliably monitor acute CHD has been affected by new diagnostic tests for myocardial infarction (MI) and changing clinical classifications and management of CHD. Our study will develop new and reliable methods for monitoring population trends in incidence, outcomes and health service usage for acute CHD and chest pain. Methods and analysis The study cohort of all CHD will be identified from the Western Australian Data Linkage System using state-wide data sets for emergency department presentation, hospitalisations and mortality data for 2002–2014. This core linked data set will be supplemented with data from hospital medical record reviews, pathology data and hospital pharmacy dispensing databases. The consistency over time of the coding of the different subgroups of CHD/chest pain (ST-elevation MI, non-ST elevation MI, unstable angina, stable angina, other CHD, non-CHD chest pain) in linked data will be assessed using these data sources, and an algorithm developed detailing groups in which temporal trends can be reliably measured. This algorithm will be used for measurement of trends in incidence and outcomes of acute CHD, and to develop further methods for monitoring acute CHD using unlinked and linked data with varying availability of hospitalisation history. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval has been obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committees of the WA Department of Health (#2016/23) and The University of Western Australia (RA/4/1/7230). Findings will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals, and presentation at national and international conferences. There will also be a strong platform for dissemination of new monitoring methods via collaboration with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare which will assist with

  8. Future clinical uses of neurophysiological biomarkers to predict and monitor treatment response for schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Light, Gregory A; Swerdlow, Neal R

    2015-05-01

    Advances in psychiatric neuroscience have transformed our understanding of impaired and spared brain functions in psychotic illnesses. Despite substantial progress, few (if any) laboratory tests have graduated to clinics to inform diagnoses, guide treatments, and monitor treatment response. Providers must rely on careful behavioral observation and interview techniques to make inferences about patients' inner experiences and then secondary deductions about impacted neural systems. Development of more effective treatments has also been hindered by a lack of translational quantitative biomarkers that can span the brain-behavior treatment knowledge gap. Here, we describe an example of a simple, low-cost, and translatable electroencephalography (EEG) measure that offers promise for improving our understanding and treatment of psychotic illnesses: mismatch negativity (MMN). MMN is sensitive to and/or predicts response to some pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions and accounts for substantial portions of variance in clinical, cognitive, and psychosocial functioning in schizophrenia (SZ). This measure has recently been validated for use in large-scale multisite clinical studies of SZ. Finally, MMN greatly improves our ability to forecast which individuals at high clinical risk actually develop a psychotic illness. These attributes suggest that MMN can contribute to personalized biomarker-guided treatment strategies aimed at ameliorating or even preventing the onset of psychosis. PMID:25752648

  9. Ambient seismic noise monitoring of a clay landslide: Toward failure prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mainsant, Guénolé; Larose, Eric; Brönnimann, Cornelia; Jongmans, Denis; Michoud, Clément; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2012-03-01

    Given that clay-rich landslides may become mobilized, leading to rapid mass movements (earthflows and debris flows), they pose critical problems in risk management worldwide. The most widely proposed mechanism leading to such flow-like movements is the increase in water pore pressure in the sliding mass, generating partial or complete liquefaction. This solid-to-liquid transition results in a dramatic reduction of mechanical rigidity in the liquefied zones, which could be detected by monitoring shear wave velocity variations. With this purpose in mind, the ambient seismic noise correlation technique has been applied to measure the variation in the seismic surface wave velocity in the Pont Bourquin landslide (Swiss Alps). This small but active composite earthslide-earthflow was equipped with continuously recording seismic sensors during spring and summer 2010. An earthslide of a few thousand cubic meters was triggered in mid-August 2010, after a rainy period. This article shows that the seismic velocity of the sliding material, measured from daily noise correlograms, decreased continuously and rapidly for several days prior to the catastrophic event. From a spectral analysis of the velocity decrease, it was possible to determine the location of the change at the base of the sliding layer. These results demonstrate that ambient seismic noise can be used to detect rigidity variations before failure and could potentially be used to predict landslides.

  10. Multi-Scale Monitoring and Prediction of System Responses to Biostimulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hubbard, Susan; Williams, Ken; Steefel, Carl; Long, Phil; Kinsong Chen, Slater, Lee; Banfield, Jill

    2006-04-05

    To advance solutions needed for remediation of DOE contaminated sites, approaches are needed that can elucidate and predict reactions associated with coupled biological, geochemical, and hydrological processes over a variety of spatial scales and in heterogeneous environments. Our laboratory experimental experiments, which were conducted under controlled conditions, suggest that geophysical methods have the potential for elucidating system transformations that often occur during remediation, such as the generation of gases and precipitates. In this new ERSP project, we will Integrate hydrological, biogeochemical, and geophysical expertise and approaches to: (1) Explore the potential of geophysical methods for detecting changes in physical, chemical, and biological properties at the field scale; and (2) Explore the joint use of reactive transport modeling and geophysical monitoring information for improvements in both methods. A brief review of our previously-conducted laboratory results are given in Section II. Section III describes the approach for our new project, which will have both laboratory and field-scale components. The field scale component will be conducted at the Rifle, CO. site, which is described in Section IV.

  11. Prediction of self-monitoring compliance: application of the theory of planned behaviour to chronic illness sufferers.

    PubMed

    McGuckin, Conor; Prentice, Garry R; McLaughlin, Christopher G; Harkin, Emma

    2012-01-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes and asthma are chronic illnesses that affect a substantial number of people. The continued high cost of clinic- and hospital-based care provision in these areas could be reduced by patients self-monitoring their condition more effectively. Such a move requires an understanding of how to predict self-monitoring compliance. Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB) makes it possible to predict those clients who will comply with medical guidelines, prescription drug intake and self-monitoring behaviours (peak flow or blood sugar levels). Ninety-seven clients attending a medical centre located in a large urbanised area of Northern Ireland completed TPB questionnaires. Significant amounts of variance explained by the TPB model indicated its usefulness as a predictor of self-monitoring behaviour intentions in the sample. The results also highlighted the importance of subjective norm and perceived behavioural control within the TPB in predicting intentions. The utility of the TPB in this study also provides evidence for health promotion professionals that costly clinic/hospital treatment provision can be reduced, whilst also being satisfied with ongoing client self-monitoring of their condition. PMID:22111866

  12. The backend design of an environmental monitoring system upon real-time prediction of groundwater level fluctuation under the hillslope.

    PubMed

    Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Hong, Yao-Ming; Kan, Yao-Chiang

    2012-01-01

    The groundwater level represents a critical factor to evaluate hillside landslides. A monitoring system upon the real-time prediction platform with online analytical functions is important to forecast the groundwater level due to instantaneously monitored data when the heavy precipitation raises the groundwater level under the hillslope and causes instability. This study is to design the backend of an environmental monitoring system with efficient algorithms for machine learning and knowledge bank for the groundwater level fluctuation prediction. A Web-based platform upon the model-view controller-based architecture is established with technology of Web services and engineering data warehouse to support online analytical process and feedback risk assessment parameters for real-time prediction. The proposed system incorporates models of hydrological computation, machine learning, Web services, and online prediction to satisfy varieties of risk assessment requirements and approaches of hazard prevention. The rainfall data monitored from the potential landslide area at Lu-Shan, Nantou and Li-Shan, Taichung, in Taiwan, are applied to examine the system design.

  13. A feasibility study on the predictive emission monitoring system applied to the Hsinta power plant of Taiwan Power Company.

    PubMed

    Chien, T W; Chu, H; Hsu, W C; Tseng, T K; Hsu, C H; Chen, K Y

    2003-08-01

    The continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) can monitor flue gas emissions continuously and instantaneously. However, it has the disadvantages of enormous cost, easily producing errors in sampling periods of bad weather, lagging response in variable ambient environments, and missing data in daily zero and span tests and maintenance. The concept of a predictive emission monitoring system (PEMS) is to use the operating parameters of combustion equipment through thermodynamic or statistical methods to construct a mathematic model that can predict emissions by a computer program. The goal of this study is to set up a PEMS in a gas-fired combined cycle power generation unit at the Hsinta station of Taiwan Power Co. The emissions to be monitored include nitrogen oxides (NOx) and oxygen (O2) in flue gas. The major variables of the predictive model were determined based on the combustion theory. The data of these variables then were analyzed to establish a regression model. From the regression results, the influences of these variables are discussed and the predicted values are compared with the CEMS data for accuracy. In addition, according to the cost information, the capital and operation and maintenance costs for a PEMS can be much lower than those for a CEMS.

  14. DoD-GEIS Rift Valley Fever Monitoring and Prediction System as a Tool for Defense and US Diplomacy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Tucker, Compton J.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Witt, Clara J.; Gaydos, Joel C.; Russell, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Over the last 10 years the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (GEIS) partnering with NASA'S Goddard Space Flight Center and USDA's USDA-Center for Medical, Agricultural & Veterinary Entomology established and have operated the Rift Valley fever Monitoring and Prediction System to monitor, predict and assess the risk of Rift Valley fever outbreaks and other vector-borne diseases over Africa and the Middle East. This system is built on legacy DoD basic research conducted by Walter Reed Army Institute of Research overseas laboratory (US Army Medical Research Unit-Kenya) and the operational satellite environmental monitoring by NASA GSFC. Over the last 10 years of operation the system has predicted outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, South Africa and Mauritania. The ability to predict an outbreak several months before it occurs provides early warning to protect deployed forces, enhance public health in concerned countries and is a valuable tool use.d by the State Department in US Diplomacy. At the international level the system has been used by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAD) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to support their monitoring, surveillance and response programs in the livestock sector and human health. This project is a successful testament of leveraging resources of different federal agencies to achieve objectives of force health protection, health and diplomacy.

  15. Prediction of stream fish assemblages from land use characteristics: implications for cost-effective design of monitoring programmes.

    PubMed

    Kristensen, Esben Astrup; Baattrup-Pedersen, Annette; Andersen, Hans Estrup

    2012-03-01

    Increasing human impact on stream ecosystems has resulted in a growing need for tools helping managers to develop conservations strategies, and environmental monitoring is crucial for this development. This paper describes the development of models predicting the presence of fish assemblages in lowland streams using solely cost-effective GIS-derived land use variables. Three hundred thirty-five stream sites were separated into two groups based on size. Within each group, fish abundance data and cluster analysis were used to determine the composition of fish assemblages. The occurrence of assemblages was predicted using a dataset containing land use variables at three spatial scales (50 m riparian corridor, 500 m riparian corridor and the entire catchment) supplemented by a dataset on in-stream variables. The overall classification success varied between 66.1-81.1% and was only marginally better when using in-stream variables than when applying only GIS variables. Also, the prediction power of a model combining GIS and in-stream variables was only slightly better than prediction based solely on GIS variables. The possibility of obtaining precise predictions without using costly in-stream variables offers great potential in the design of monitoring programmes as the distribution of monitoring sites along a gradient in ecological quality can be done at a low cost. PMID:21509511

  16. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes : Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student's to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation's prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  17. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes :Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student`s to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation`s prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  18. Coping with drought: A High Resolution Drought Monitoring and Prediction System for the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, M.; Nijssen, B.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    The Pacific Northwest (PNW) region in North America (defined here as the Columbia and Klamath River basins plus the coastal drainages) is a diverse geographic region with complex topography and a variety of climates. Agriculture (dryland and irrigated), forestry, fisheries, and hydropower provide significant economic benefit to the region and are directly dependent on the availability of sufficient water at the right time. Additional demands are made on water supplies by recreation, ecosystem services and emerging needs such as hydropower generation in support of wind energy integration. Several major droughts have occurred over the region in recent decades (notably 1977, 2001, and 2004), which have had significant consequences for the region's agricultural, hydropower production, and environment. An emerging need for the region is the coordination of existing regional climate activities, including a better awareness of the current water availability conditions across the region. The University of Washington has operated a surface water monitor for the continental United States since 2005, which provides near real-time estimates of surface water conditions at a spatial resolution of 1/2 degree in terms of soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and total moisture based on a suite of land surface models. A higher resolution Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (DMPS) for Washington State was originally implemented at 1/8 degree and later increased to 1/16 degree. This presentation describes the extension of this system to the entire PNW region at 1/16 degree. The expanded system provides daily updates of three primary drought-related indices based on near real-time station observations in the region: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Soil Moisture Percentiles (SMP). To make the drought measures relevant to water managers, surface water conditions are not only reported on a gridded map, but watershed-level drought summary

  19. Integrating Real-time and Manual Monitored Soil Moisture Data to Predict Hillslope Soil Moisture Variations with High Temporal Resolutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Qing; Lv, Ligang; Zhou, Zhiwen; Liao, Kaihua

    2016-04-01

    Spatial-temporal variability of soil moisture 15 has been remaining an challenge to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time soil moisture monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of soil moisture dynamics. In this study, we aimed to integrate the manual and real-time monitored soil moisture to depict the hillslope dynamics of soil moisture with good spatial coverage and temporal resolution. Linear (stepwise multiple linear regression-SMLR) and non-linear models (support vector machines-SVM) were used to predict soil moisture at 38 manual sites (collected 1-2 times per month) with soil moisture automatically collected at three real-time monitoring sites (collected every 5 mins). By comparing the accuracies of SMLR and SVM for each manual site, optimal soil moisture prediction model of this site was then determined. Results show that soil moisture at these 38 manual sites can be reliably predicted (root mean square errors<0.035 m3 m-3) using this approach. Absence or occurrence of subsurface flow can probably influence the choosing of SMLR or SVM in the prediction, respectively. Depth to bedrock, elevation, topographic wetness index, profile curvature, and relative difference of soil moisture and its standard deviation influenced the selection of prediction model since they related to the dynamics of soil water distribution and movement. By using this approach, hillslope soil moisture spatial distributions at un-sampled times and dates were predicted after a typical rainfall event. Missing information of hillslope soil moisture dynamics was then acquired successfully. This can be benefit for determining the hot spots and moments of soil water movement, as well as designing the proper soil moisture monitoring plan at the field scale.

  20. Model-based evaluation of subsurface monitoring networks for improved efficiency and predictive certainty of regional groundwater models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosses, M. J.; Wöhling, Th.; Moore, C. R.; Dann, R.; Scott, D. M.; Close, M.

    2012-04-01

    Groundwater resources worldwide are increasingly under pressure. Demands from different local stakeholders add to the challenge of managing this resource. In response, groundwater models have become popular to make predictions about the impact of different management strategies and to estimate possible impacts of changes in climatic conditions. These models can assist to find optimal management strategies that comply with the various stakeholder needs. Observations of the states of the groundwater system are essential for the calibration and evaluation of groundwater flow models, particularly when they are used to guide the decision making process. On the other hand, installation and maintenance of observation networks are costly. Therefore it is important to design monitoring networks carefully and cost-efficiently. In this study, we analyse the Central Plains groundwater aquifer (~ 4000 km2) between the Rakaia and Waimakariri rivers on the Eastern side of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. The large sedimentary groundwater aquifer is fed by the two alpine rivers and by recharge from the land surface. The area is mainly under agricultural land use and large areas of the land are irrigated. The other major water use is the drinking water supply for the city of Christchurch. The local authority in the region, Environment Canterbury, maintains an extensive groundwater quantity and quality monitoring programme to monitor the effects of land use and discharges on groundwater quality, and the suitability of the groundwater for various uses, especially drinking-water supply. Current and projected irrigation water demand has raised concerns about possible impacts on groundwater-dependent lowland streams. We use predictive uncertainty analysis and the Central Plains steady-state groundwater flow model to evaluate the worth of pressure head observations in the existing groundwater well monitoring network. The data worth of particular observations is dependent on the problem

  1. Monitoring Food Security Indicators from Remote Sensing and Predicting Cereal Production in Afghanistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pervez, M. S.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.

    2015-12-01

    We extract percent of basin snow covered areas above 2500m elevation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500-meter 8-day snow cover composites to monitor accumulation and depletion of snow in the basin. While the accumulation and depletion of snow cover extent provides an indication of the temporal progression of the snow pack, it does not provide insight into available water for irrigation. Therefore, we use snow model results from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center to quantify snow water equivalent and volume of water available within the snowpack for irrigation. In an effort to understand how water availability, along with its inter-annual variability, relates to the food security of the country, we develop a simple, effective, and easy-to-implement model to identify irrigated areas across the country on both annual and mid-season basis. The model is based on applying thresholds to peak growing season vegetation indices—derived from 250-meter MODIS images—in a decision-tree classifier to separate irrigated crops from non-irrigated vegetation. The spatial distribution and areal estimates of irrigated areas from these maps compare well with irrigated areas classified from multiple snap shots of the landscape from Landsat 5 optical and thermal images over selected locations. We observed that the extents of irrigated areas varied depending on the availability of snowmelt and can be between 1.35 million hectares in a year with significant water deficit and 2.4 million hectares in a year with significant water surplus. The changes in the amount of available water generally can contribute up to a 30% change in irrigated areas. We also observed that the strong correlation between inter-annual variability of irrigated areas and the variability in the country's cereal production could be utilized to predict an annual estimate of cereal production, providing early indication of food security scenarios for the country.

  2. Design of the Health Monitoring System for the Artificial Pancreas: Low Glucose Prediction Module

    PubMed Central

    Harvey, Rebecca A.; Dassau, Eyal; Zisser, Howard; Seborg, Dale E.; Jovanovič, Lois; Doyle, Francis J.

    2012-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to design and evaluate a safety system for the artificial pancreas device system (APDS). Safe operation of the APDS is a critical task, where the safety system is engaged only as needed to ensure reliable operation without positive feedback to the controller. Methods The Health Monitoring System (HMS) was designed as a modular system to ensure the safety of the APDS and the user. It was designed using a large set of ambulatory data and evaluated in silico by inducing hypoglycemia with a missed meal [bolus for a 65 g carbohydrate (CHO) meal] and administering rescue CHOs per HMS alerting. The HMS was validated in-clinic with a real-life challenge of a subject who overdosed insulin prior to admission. Results The HMS was evaluated for clinical use with a 15 min prediction horizon. Retrospectively, 93.5% of episodes were detected with 2.9 false alarms per day. During in silico evaluation, the HMS reduced the time spent <70 mg/dl from 15% to 3%. When the HMS was first tested in-clinic, the subject overdosed ~3 U of insulin prior to her arrival to a closed-loop session (against protocol). The controller reduced insulin delivery, and the HMS gave four alerts that were successfully received via clinical software and text and multimedia messages. Even with insulin reduction and CHO supplements, hypoglycemia was unavoidable but manageable due to the HMS, confirming that a safety system to detect adverse events is an essential part of the APDS. Conclusions The ability of the HMS to be an effective alert system that provides a safety layer to the APDS controller has been demonstrated in a clinical setting. PMID:23294779

  3. Testing a Multi-Stage Screening System: Predicting Performance on Australia's National Achievement Test Using Teachers' Ratings of Academic and Social Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kettler, Ryan J.; Elliott, Stephen N.; Davies, Michael; Griffin, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    This study addresses the predictive validity of results from a screening system of academic enablers, with a sample of Australian elementary school students, when the criterion variable is end-of-year achievement. The investigation included (a) comparing the predictive validity of a brief criterion-referenced nomination system with more…

  4. Using prediction uncertainty analysis to design hydrologic monitoring networks: Example applications from the Great Lakes water availability pilot project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.; Reeves, Howard W.

    2010-01-01

    The importance of monitoring networks for resource-management decisions is becoming more recognized, in both theory and application. Quantitative computer models provide a science-based framework to evaluate the efficacy and efficiency of existing and possible future monitoring networks. In the study described herein, two suites of tools were used to evaluate the worth of new data for specific predictions, which in turn can support efficient use of resources needed to construct a monitoring network. The approach evaluates the uncertainty of a model prediction and, by using linear propagation of uncertainty, estimates how much uncertainty could be reduced if the model were calibrated with addition information (increased a priori knowledge of parameter values or new observations). The theoretical underpinnings of the two suites of tools addressing this technique are compared, and their application to a hypothetical model based on a local model inset into the Great Lakes Water Availability Pilot model are described. Results show that meaningful guidance for monitoring network design can be obtained by using the methods explored. The validity of this guidance depends substantially on the parameterization as well; hence, parameterization must be considered not only when designing the parameter-estimation paradigm but also-importantly-when designing the prediction-uncertainty paradigm.

  5. Tritium monitoring in groundwater and evaluation of model predictions for the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Barnett, D.B.; Bergeron, M.P.; Cole, C.R.; Freshley, M.D.; Wurstner, S.K.

    1997-08-01

    The Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) disposal site, also known as the State-Approved Land Disposal Site (SALDS), receives treated effluent containing tritium, which is allowed to infiltrate through the soil column to the water table. Tritium was first detected in groundwater monitoring wells around the facility in July 1996. The SALDS groundwater monitoring plan requires revision of a predictive groundwater model and reevaluation of the monitoring well network one year from the first detection of tritium in groundwater. This document is written primarily to satisfy these requirements and to report on analytical results for tritium in the SALDS groundwater monitoring network through April 1997. The document also recommends an approach to continued groundwater monitoring for tritium at the SALDS. Comparison of numerical groundwater models applied over the last several years indicate that earlier predictions, which show tritium from the SALDS approaching the Columbia River, were too simplified or overly robust in source assumptions. The most recent modeling indicates that concentrations of tritium above 500 pCi/L will extend, at most, no further than {approximately}1.5 km from the facility, using the most reasonable projections of ETF operation. This extent encompasses only the wells in the current SALDS tritium-tracking network.

  6. Plant functional types are more efficient than climate in predicting spectrums of trait variation in evergreen angiosperm trees of tropical Australia and China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Togashi, H. F.; Prentice, I. C. C.; Atkin, O. K.; Bloomfield, K. J.; Bradford, M.; Weerasinghe, L. K.; Harrison, S. P.; Evans, B. J.; Liddell, M. J.; Wang, H.; Cao, K. F.; Fan, Z.

    2015-12-01

    The representation of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) in current generation of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) is excessively simplistically. Key ecophysiological properties, such as photosynthesis biochemistry, are most times merely averaged and trade-off with other plant traits is often neglected. Validation of a PFT framework based in photosynthetic process is crucial to improve reliability of DGVMs. We present 431 leaf-biochemical and wood level measurements in evergreen angiosperm trees of tropical forests in Australia and China that were divided in four spectrums of plant trait variation: metabolic, structural, hydraulic and height dimensions. Plant traits divided in each of these dimensions adopt survival strategies reflected more clearly by trade-off within each spectrum, and in some extent across spectrums. Co-ordination theory (that Rubisco- and electron-transport limited rates of photosynthesis are co-limiting) and least-coast theory (that intercellular to ambient CO2 concentration minimizes the combined costs per unit carbon assimilation, regulating maximum height and wood density) expectations matched PFT (which takes in account canopy position and light access, and life spam) variation. Our findings suggest that climate (air moisture, air temperature, light) has lower power representing these dimensions, in comparison to the PFT framework.

  7. Information Activities in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanada, Takeyoshi

    The last few years have seen an explosive growth in database and computer networking activities in Australia. At present there are six major information networks in Australia, which carry more than 400 locally produced databases and many others from overseas. AUSINET databases are exemplified. MIDAS (Multi-mode International Data Aquisition System) provides lower cost access to overseas databases than before. The paper also gives brief outline of various bodies which relate to information and library policy in Australia and regional cooperative activities.

  8. Ultrasound-Guided Diffuse Optical Tomography for Predicting and Monitoring Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy of Breast Cancers: Recent Progress

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Chen; Vavadi, Hamed; Merkulov, Alex; Li, Hai; Erfanzadeh, Mohsen; Mostafa, Atahar; Gong, Yanping; Salehi, Hassan; Tannenbaum, Susan; Zhu, Quing

    2016-01-01

    In this manuscript, we review the current progress of utilizing ultrasound-guided diffuse optical tomography (US-guided DOT) for predicting and monitoring neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) outcomes of breast cancer patients. We also report the recent advance on optical tomography systems toward portable and robust clinical use at multiple clinical sites. The first patient who has been closely monitored before NAC, at day 2, day 8, end of first three cycles of NAC, and before surgery is given as an example to demonstrate the potential of US-guided DOT technique. PMID:25887527

  9. Monitoring dolphins in an urban marine system: total and effective population size estimates of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia.

    PubMed

    Ansmann, Ina C; Lanyon, Janet M; Seddon, Jennifer M; Parra, Guido J

    2013-01-01

    Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008-2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne ) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Ne c). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554 ± 22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510-598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193 ± 6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181-207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446 ± 56 (SE) (95% CI: 336-556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Ne c = 56, 95% CI: 33-128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect abundance

  10. Three Conservation Applications of Astronaut Photographs of Earth: Tidal Flat Loss (Japan), Elephant Impacts on Vegetation (Botswana), and Seagrass and Mangrove Monitoring (Australia)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Robinson, Julie A.; Minorukashiwagi; Maggiesuzuki; Duanenellis, M.; Bussing, Charles E.; Leelong, W. J.; McKenzie, Andlen J.

    2000-01-01

    NASA photographs taken from low Earth orbit can provide information relevant to conservation biology. This data source is now more accessible due to improvements in digitizing technology, Internet file transfer, and availability of image processing software. We present three examples of conservation-related projects that benefited from using orbital photographs. (1) A time series of photographs from the Space Shuttle showing wetland conversion in Japan was used as a tool for communicating about the impacts of tidal flat loss. Real-time communication with astronauts about a newsworthy event resulted in acquiring current imagery. These images and the availability of other high resolution digital images from NASA provided timely public information on the observed changes. (2) A Space Shuttle photograph of Chobe National Park in Botswana was digitally classified and analyzed to identify the locations of elephant-impacted woodland. Field validation later confirmed that areas identified on the image showed evidence of elephant impacts. (3) A summary map from intensive field surveys of seagrasses in Shoalwater Bay, Australia was used as reference data for a supervised classification of a digitized photograph taken from orbit. The classification was able to distinguish seagrasses, sediments and mangroves with accuracy approximating that in studies using other satellite remote sensing data. Orbital photographs are in the public domain and the database of nearly 400,000 photographs from the late 1960s to the present is available at a single searchable location on the Internet. These photographs can be used by conservation biologists for general information about the landscape and in quantitative applications.

  11. Predicting, Monitoring, and Managing Hypercalcemia Secondary to 13-Cis-Retinoic Acid Therapy in Children With High-risk Neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Chen, Suet Ching; Murphy, Dermot; Sastry, Jairam; Shaikh, Mohamad G

    2015-08-01

    13-cis-retinoic acid is an established component of treatment for children with high-risk neuroblastoma. However, significant hypercalcemia is increasingly recognized as a potentially life-threatening dosage-related side effect. We present 2 patients with significant hypercalcemia secondary to 13-cis-retinoic acid and their management, and identified the predictive factors for susceptibility to hypercalcemia. Assessing glomerular filtration rate and concomitant medication help predict individual susceptibility to hypercalcemia. Calcium levels should be monitored at days 1, 7, and 14 of each course of retinoic acid. An algorithm for the management of hypercalcemia during the affected and subsequent cycles of retinoid therapy is proposed.

  12. Heron Island, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Heron Island is located at the sourthern end of Australia's 2,050 km-long Great Barrier Reef. Surrounded by coral reef and home to over 1000 species of fish, scuba divers and scientists alike are drawn to the island's resort and research station. The true-color image above was taken by Space Imaging's Ikonos satellite with a resolution of 4 meters per pixel-high enough to see individual boats tied up at the small marina. The narrow channel leading from the marina to the ocean was blasted and dredged decades ago, before the island became a national park. Since then the Australian government has implemented conservation measures, such as limiting the number of tourists and removing or recycling, instead of incinerating, all trash. One of the applications of remote sensing data from Ikonos is environmental monitoring, including studies of coral reef health. For more information about the island, read Heron Island. Image by Robert Simmon, based on data copyright Space Imaging

  13. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  14. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    1992-01-01

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  15. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-06-22

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales.

  16. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed Central

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-01-01

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685

  17. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-06-22

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685

  18. Online Training in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuzic, Joze

    2013-01-01

    On-line training is becoming an interesting phenomenon in Australia and has attracted a lot of interest across many industries and businesses (Chan and Ngai, 2007). The research reported here looks at the use of online training in corporations in Australia. It focuses on two aspects of online training, the factors that "warrant" its…

  19. Handbook on Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Texas Education Agency, Austin.

    A study unit on Australia for secondary students is divided into eight sections. Section 1 introduces students to the states, territories, and capitals of the country. Section two, land and people, discusses the size, location, geology, climate, flora and fauna, and population of Australia. Sections 3 and 4 outline Australian history and include…

  20. Women Astronomers: Australia: Women astronomers in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhathal, Ragbir

    2001-08-01

    Ragbir Bhathal summarizes the role played by women astronomers in Australia's astronomy, now and in the past. Australia has a great tradition in astronomy, from the early observations of Aboriginal people through the colonial drive to explore and understand, culminating in the established excellence of research there today. Women have contributed to this achievement in no small way, yet their contribution has been unremarked, if not ignored. Here I summarize the historical and present state of affairs and look forward to a brighter and more equitable future.

  1. Lake Eyre, Simpson Desert, South Australia, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Lake Eyre, Simpson Desert, South Australia, Australia (27.0S, 136.0E) is normally a dry lakebed for years on end. However on rare occasions small amounts of rainfall are recorded and ponding can be seen in low parts of the lake, as in this image, where an algae bloom in the water is seen as a dark pink area on the lakebed. The Finke Riverbed intersects Lake Eyre but it is normally a dry wash and seldom contributes water to the lake.

  2. On the identification of representative in situ soil moisture monitoring stations for the validation of SMAP soil moisture products in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yee, Mei Sun; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Monerris, Alessandra; Rüdiger, Christoph; Jackson, Thomas J.

    2016-06-01

    The high spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture complicates the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture products using in situ monitoring stations. Therefore, a standard methodology for selecting the most representative stations for the purpose of validating satellites and land surface models is essential. Based on temporal stability and geostatistical studies using long-term soil moisture records, intensive ground measurements and airborne soil moisture products, this study investigates the representativeness of soil moisture monitoring stations within the Yanco study area for the validation of NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) products at 3 km for radar, 9 km for radar-radiometer and 36 km for radiometer pixels. This resulted in the identification of a number of representative stations according to the different scales. Although the temporal stability method was found to be suitable for identifying representative stations, stations based on the mean relative difference (MRD) were not necessarily the most representative of the areal average. Moreover, those identified from standard deviation of the relative difference (SDRD) may be dry-biased. It was also found that in the presence of heterogeneous land use, stations should be weighted based on proportions of agricultural land. Airborne soil moisture products were also shown to provide useful a priori information for identifying representative locations. Finally, recommendations are made regarding the design of future networks for satellite validation, and specifically the most representative stations for the Yanco area.

  3. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  4. Monitoring

    DOEpatents

    Orr, Christopher Henry; Luff, Craig Janson; Dockray, Thomas; Macarthur, Duncan Whittemore

    2004-11-23

    The invention provides apparatus and methods which facilitate movement of an instrument relative to an item or location being monitored and/or the item or location relative to the instrument, whilst successfully excluding extraneous ions from the detection location. Thus, ions generated by emissions from the item or location can successfully be monitored during movement. The technique employs sealing to exclude such ions, for instance, through an electro-field which attracts and discharges the ions prior to their entering the detecting location and/or using a magnetic field configured to repel the ions away from the detecting location.

  5. Prediction of landslide activation at locations in Beskidy Mountains using standard and real-time monitoring methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarczyk, Z.

    2012-04-01

    The paper presents landslide monitoring methods used for prediction of landslide activity at locations in the Carpathian Mountains (SE Poland). Different types of monitoring methods included standard and real-time early warning measurement with use of hourly data transfer to the Internet were used. Project financed from the EU funds was carried out for the purpose of public road reconstruction. Landslides with low displacement rates (varying from few mm to over 5cm/year) had size of 0.4-2.2mln m3. Flysch layers involved in mass movements represented mixture of clayey soils and sandstones of high moisture content and plasticity. Core sampling and GPR scanning were used for recognition of landslide size and depths. Laboratory research included index, IL oedometer, triaxial and direct shear laboratory tests. GPS-RTK mapping was employed for actualization of landslide morphology. Instrumentation consisted of standard inclinometers, piezometers and pore pressure transducers. Measurements were carried 2006-2011, every month. In May 2010 the first in Poland real-time monitoring system was installed at landslide complex over the Szymark-Bystra public road. It included in-place uniaxial sensors and 3D continuous inclinometers installed to the depths of 12-16m with tilt sensors every 0.5m. Vibrating wire pore pressure and groundwater level transducers together with automatic meteorological station analyzed groundwater and weather conditions. Obtained monitoring and field investigations data provided parameters for LEM and FEM slope stability analysis. They enabled prediction and control of landslide behaviour before, during and after stabilization or partly stabilization works. In May 2010 after the maximum precipitation (100mm/3hours) the rates of observed displacements accelerated to over 11cm in a few days and damaged few standard inclinometer installations. However permanent control of the road area was possible by continuous inclinometer installations. Comprehensive

  6. Should managed populations be monitored every year?

    PubMed

    Hauser, Cindy E; Pople, Anthony R; Possingham, Hugh P

    2006-04-01

    We often need to estimate the size of wild populations to determine the appropriate management action, for example, to set a harvest quota. Monitoring is usually planned under the assumption that it must be carried out at fixed intervals in time, typically annually, before the harvest quota is set. However, monitoring can be very expensive, and we should weigh the cost of monitoring against the improvement that it makes in decision making. A less costly alternative to monitoring annually is to predict the population size using a population model and information from previous surveys. In this paper, the problem of monitoring frequency is posed within a decision-theory framework. We discover that a monitoring regime that varies according to the state of the system can outperform fixed-interval monitoring. This idea is illustrated using data for a red kangaroo (Macropus rufus) population in South Australia. Whether or not one should monitor in a given year is dependent on the estimated population density in the previous year, the uncertainty in that population estimate, and past rainfall. We discover that monitoring is important when a model-based prediction of population density is very uncertain. This may occur if monitoring has not taken place for several years, or if rainfall has been above average. Monitoring is also important when prior information suggests that the population is near a critical threshold in population abundance. However, monitoring is less important when the optimal management action would not be altered by new information.

  7. Autonomous monitoring of control hardware to predict off-normal conditions using NIF automatic Alignment Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Awwal, A; Wilhelmsen, K; Leach, R; Kamm, V M; Burkhart, S; Lowe-Webb, R; Cohen, S

    2011-07-20

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a high power laser system capable of supporting high-energy-density experimentation as a user facility for the next 30 years. In order to maximize the facility availability, preventive maintenance enhancements are being introduced into the system. An example of such an enhancement is a camera-based health monitoring system, integrated into the automated alignment system, which provides an opportunity to monitor trends in measurements such as average beam intensity, size of the beam, and pixel saturation. The monitoring system will generate alerts based on observed trends in measurements to allow scheduled pro-active maintenance before routine off-normal detection stops system operations requiring unscheduled intervention.

  8. Decision analyses for optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

    2011-12-01

    Model-based decision making related to environmental management problems is a challenging problem. There has been substantial theoretical research and practical applications related to this problem. However, there are very few cases in which the actual decision analyses have been tested in the field to evaluate their adequacy. Over the last several years, we have performed a series of decision analyses to support optimization of a monitoring network at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) site. The problem deals with contaminant transport in the regional aquifer beneath the LANL site. At three separate stages, the existing monitoring network was augmented based on analyses of the existing uncertainties; in total, five new monitoring wells were proposed. At each stage, the data collected at the new monitoring wells demonstrated the adequacy of the prior uncertainty and decision analyses. The decision analyses required a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties, including measurement errors and uncertainties in the conceptualization and model parameters, contributed to the uncertainties in the model predictions. The decision analyses were computationally intensive requiring on the order of one million model simulations; computational efficiency is achieved using (1) high-performance computing (LANL multiprocessor clusters), (2) novel computational techniques for model analysis, and (3) a simple analytical 3D simulator to simulate contaminant transport. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks required optimization of the proposed new monitoring well locations in order to reduce existing model-prediction uncertainties and environmental risk. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of novel techniques for optimization (SQUADS based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods; Vesselinov & Harp, 2011) and uncertainty quantification (ABAGUS: Agent

  9. Predictive data mining on monitoring data from the intensive care unit.

    PubMed

    Güiza, Fabian; Van Eyck, Jelle; Meyfroidt, Geert

    2013-08-01

    The widespread implementation of computerized medical files in intensive care units (ICUs) over recent years has made available large databases of clinical data for the purpose of developing clinical prediction models. The typical intensive care unit has several information sources from which data is electronically collected as time series of varying time resolutions. We present an overview of research questions studied in the ICU setting that have been addressed through the automatic analysis of these large databases. We focus on automatic learning methods, specifically data mining approaches for predictive modeling based on these time series of clinical data. On the one hand we examine short and medium term predictions, which have as ultimate goal the development of early warning or decision support systems. On the other hand we examine long term outcome prediction models and evaluate their performance with respect to established scoring systems based on static admission and demographic data.

  10. Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity Predict Action Monitoring and the Error-Related Negativity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, A. Eve; Watson, Jason M.; Strayer, David L.

    2012-01-01

    Neuroscience suggests that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is responsible for conflict monitoring and the detection of errors in cognitive tasks, thereby contributing to the implementation of attentional control. Though individual differences in frontally mediated goal maintenance have clearly been shown to influence outward behavior in…

  11. A predictive model for anti-degradation monitoring of the Delaware River mainstem

    EPA Science Inventory

    The non-tidal portion of the Delaware River can be considered to be in minimally disturbed condition, but there is increasing pressure on the watershed. Thus, the primary goal of this research was to develop a monitoring tool that can be used by the Delaware River Basin Commissi...

  12. Clinical relevance of total HCV core antigen testing for hepatitis C monitoring and for predicting patients' response to therapy.

    PubMed

    Maynard, M; Pradat, P; Berthillon, P; Picchio, G; Voirin, N; Martinot, M; Marcellin, P; Trepo, C

    2003-07-01

    To study the correlation between total Hepatitis C virus (HCV) Core antigen (Ag) and HCV-RNA, and to assess the proficiency of HCV Core Ag testing in monitoring and predicting virologic response during and after pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin combination therapy. A total of 307 samples from treated and untreated patients were used to assess the correlation between the total HCV Core Ag test and quantitative HCV-RNA assays (Superquant, and Quantiplex branched DNA 2.0 assay). Twenty-four patients received combination therapy for 48 weeks. Blood samples were collected at day 0, and week 2, 4, 12, 24, 48 and 72 for virologic evaluation. A linear relation exists between total HCV Core Ag and HCV-RNA levels. At 3 months the positive predictive value (PPV) of response to therapy was 100% with either HCV Core Ag or HCV-RNA. For HCV Core Ag the negative predictive value (NPV) was 100% whereas for HCV-RNA the NPV was 80% (P > 0.05). At month 1, the PPV was 95% and 100% when determined by HCV Core Ag and HCV-RNA, respectively. The NPV value was 100% for HCV Core Ag and 33% for HCV-RNA (P = 0.005). HCV Core Ag quantification could be useful in clinical practice to predict a sustained virological response early during therapy (4 weeks), reaching an optimal performance at month 3. The determination of total HCV Core Ag levels in serum, constitutes an accurate and reliable alternative to HCV-RNA for monitoring and predicting treatment outcome in patients receiving PEG-IFN/Ribavirin combination therapy.

  13. Model-Based Hookload Monitoring and Prediction at Drilling Rigs using Neural Networks and Forward-Selection Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnaout, A.; Fruhwirth, R.; Winter, M.; Esmael, B.; Thonhauser, G.

    2012-04-01

    The use of neural networks and advanced machine learning techniques in the oil & gas industry is a growing trend in the market. Especially in drilling oil & gas wells, prediction and monitoring different drilling parameters is an essential task to prevent serious problems like "Kick", "Lost Circulation" or "Stuck Pipe" among others. The hookload represents the weight load of the drill string at the crane hook. It is one of the most important parameters. During drilling the parameter "Weight on Bit" is controlled by the driller whereby the hookload is the only measure to monitor how much weight on bit is applied to the bit to generate the hole. Any changes in weight on bit will be directly reflected at the hookload. Furthermore any unwanted contact between the drill string and the wellbore - potentially leading to stuck pipe problem - will appear directly in the measurements of the hookload. Therefore comparison of the measured to the predicted hookload will not only give a clear idea on what is happening down-hole, it also enables the prediction of a number of important events that may cause problems in the borehole and yield in some - fortunately rare - cases in catastrophes like blow-outs. Heuristic models using highly sophisticated neural networks were designed for the hookload prediction; the training data sets were prepared in cooperation with drilling experts. Sensor measurements as well as a set of derived feature channels were used as input to the models. The contents of the final data set can be separated into (1) features based on rig operation states, (2) real-time sensors features and (3) features based on physics. A combination of novel neural network architecture - the Completely Connected Perceptron and parallel learning techniques which avoid trapping into local error minima - was used for building the models. In addition automatic network growing algorithms and highly sophisticated stopping criterions offer robust and efficient estimation of the

  14. Individual differences in fifth graders’ reading and language predict their comprehension monitoring development: An eye-movement study

    PubMed Central

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we investigated fifth-graders’ (n=52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation, and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children read two sentences; the second included either a plausible or implausible word in the context of the first sentence. Stronger readers had shorter reading times overall suggesting faster processing of text. Generally fifth-graders reacted to the implausible word (i.e., longer gaze duration on the implausible v. the plausible word, which reflects lexical access). Students with stronger academic language, compared to those with weaker academic language, generally spent more time re-reading the implausible target compared to the plausible target. This difference increased from fall to spring. Results support the centrality of academic language for meaning integration, setting standards of coherence, and utilizing comprehension repair strategies. PMID:27065721

  15. Predictable pollution: an assessment of weather balloons and associated impacts on the marine environment--an example for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Owen R; Hamann, Mark; Smith, Walter; Taylor, Heidi

    2014-02-15

    Efforts to curb pollution in the marine environment are covered by national and international legislation, yet weather balloons are released into the environment with no salvage agenda. Here, we assess impacts associated with weather balloons in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA). We use modeling to assess the probability of ocean endpoints for released weather balloons and predict pathways post-release. In addition, we use 21 months of data from beach cleanup events to validate our results and assess the abundance and frequency of weather balloon fragments in the GBRWHA. We found between 65% and 70% of balloons land in the ocean and ocean currents largely determine final endpoints. Beach cleanup data revealed 2460 weather balloon fragments were recovered from 24 sites within the GBRWHA. This is the first attempt to quantify this problem and these data will add support to a much-needed mitigation strategy for weather balloon waste.

  16. MOBILESAT: Australia's own

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagg, Michael

    1990-01-01

    Australia will be introducing a dedicated Mobile Satellite Communications System following the launch of the AUSSAT-B satellites late in 1991. The Mobile Satellite System, MOBILESAT, will provide circuit switched voice/data services and packet-switched data services for land, aeronautical and maritime users. Here, an overview is given of the development program being undertaken within Australia to enable a fully commercial service to be introduced in 1992.

  17. A water marker monitored by satellites to predict seasonal endemic cholera

    PubMed Central

    JUTLA, ANTARPREET; AKANDA, ALI SHAFQAT; HUQ, ANWAR; FARUQUE, ABU SYED GOLAM; COLWELL, RITA; ISLAM, SHAFIQUL

    2013-01-01

    The ability to predict an occurrence of cholera, a water-related disease, offers a significant public health advantage. Satellite based estimates of chlorophyll, a surrogate for plankton abundance, have been linked to cholera incidence. However, cholera bacteria can survive under a variety of coastal ecological conditions, thus constraining the predictive ability of the chlorophyll, since it provides only an estimate of greenness of seawater. Here, a new remote sensing based index is proposed: Satellite Water Marker (SWM), which estimates condition of coastal water, based on observed variability in the difference between blue (412 nm) and green (555 nm) wavelengths that can be related to seasonal cholera incidence. The index is bounded between physically separable wavelengths for relatively clear (blue) and turbid (green) water. Using SWM, prediction of cholera with reasonable accuracy, with at least two month in advance, can potentially be achieved in the endemic coastal regions. PMID:23878762

  18. Epileptic Seizure Detection and Prediction Based on Continuous Cerebral Blood Flow Monitoring--a Review.

    PubMed

    Tewolde, Senay; Oommen, Kalarickal; Lie, Donald Y C; Zhang, Yuanlin; Chyu, Ming-Chien

    2015-01-01

    Epilepsy is the third most common neurological illness, affecting 1% of the world's population. Despite advances in medicine, about 25 to 30% of the patients do not respond to or cannot tolerate the severe side effects of medical treatment, and surgery is not an option for the majority of patients with epilepsy. The objective of this article is to review the current state of research on seizure detection based on cerebral blood flow (CBF) data acquired by thermal diffusion flowmetry (TDF), and CBF-based seizure prediction. A discussion is provided on the applications, advantages, and disadvantages of TDF in detecting and localizing seizure foci, as well as its role in seizure prediction. Also presented are an overview of the present challenges and possible future research directions (along with methodological guidelines) of the CBF-based seizure detection and prediction methods. PMID:26288885

  19. Eruption forerunners from multiparameter monitoring and application for eruptions time predictability (Piton de la Fournaise)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmid, A.; Grasso, J. R.; Clarke, D.; Ferrazzini, V.; BachèLery, P.; Staudacher, T.

    2012-11-01

    Volcanic eruptions impact on societal risk, and volcanic hazard assessment is a necessary ingredient for decision-makers. However, the prediction of volcanic eruptions remains challenging due to the complexity and the non-linearity of volcanic processes. Identified forerunners such as increasing seismicity or deformation of the volcanic edifice prior to eruption are not deterministic. In this study, we use statistical methods to identify and discriminate precursory patterns to eruptions, on three sets of observables of Piton de la Fournaise volcano. We analyzed the short-term (i.e. the inter-eruptive period) time series of the seismicity rate, the deformation and the seismic velocity changes (deduced from seismic noise cross-correlations) over the period 1999-2006, with two main goals. First, we characterize the average pre-eruptive time patterns before 22 eruptions using superposed epoch analysis for the three observables. Using daily rate values, we resolve (1) a velocity change within 100-50 days from the eruptions onsets, then a plateau value up to eruption onset; (2) a power law increase in seismicity rate from noise level 15-10 days before eruption time; (3) an increase of displacement rate on the eruption day. These results support a three step mechanism leading to magma transfers toward the surface. Second we use pattern recognition techniques and the formalization of error diagrams to quantify the predictive power of each forerunner either as used independently or as combined to each other. We show that when seismicity rate alone performs the best prediction in the failure to predict versus alarm duration space, the combination of the displacement and seismicity data reduces the false alarm rate. We further propose a tool which explores the prediction results in order to optimize prediction strategy for decision-makers, as a function of the risk value.

  20. The Health Behavior Schedule-II for Diabetes Predicts Self-Monitoring of Blood Glucose

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frank, Maxwell T.; Cho, Sungkun; Heiby, Elaine M.; Lee, Chun-I; Lahtela, Adrienne L.

    2006-01-01

    The Health Behavior Schedule-II for Diabetes (HBS-IID) is a 27-item questionnaire that was evaluated as a predictor of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG). The HBS-IID was completed by 96 adults with Type 2 diabetes. Recent glycosylated hemoglobin HbA1c and fasting blood glucose results were taken from participants' medical records. Only 31.3%…

  1. Regional scale monitoring of atmospheric water vapor content with GNSS infrastructure and numerical model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozsa, Szabolcs; Zeno Gyongyosi, Andras; Bartholy, Judit; Kern, Aniko; Weidinger, Tamas; Decsi, Anna; Kenyeres, Ambrus; Dombai, Ferenc; Adam, Jozsef

    2013-04-01

    Water, which is present in the troposphere in all three phases, has a unique feature among atmospheric components. Besides the formation of clouds and precipitation, it has a key role in atmospheric energy transport and it is the most important greenhouse gas. Due to its temporal and spatial variability, the monitoring of water in the atmosphere requires observations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The water content in the air can be measured directly by radiosondes, in order to monitor the vertical structure of the lower 30-35 km. In addition, remote sensing devices installed on spacecrafts, airframes and the Earth's surface are also available for the measurement of water content. These sensors yield the total water amount of a column of air, the so-called precipitable water (PW) content, in units of kg m-2 or mm. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are capable to monitor various parameters of the atmosphere. With the establishment of the active GNSS network in Hungary, it became feasible to quantify and monitor PW from GNSS observations. The advantage of this solution is the high spatial and temporal resolution of the observations. Modeling of the weather system is performed by the numerical solution of the atmospheric hydro-thermodynamic set of equations. Based on the actual weather as initial condition, the parameters of the expected weather can be estimated. In this study two different meteorological models (WRF and DBCRAS) - run at the Department of Meteorology at Eotvos Lorand University for weather research and forecasting purposes - are compared with the PW estimates provided by the GNSS infrastructure for 7 months in 2011. Deviation between measured data from different sources is near 1 mm in most cases. Forecast PW values show larger deviation from measured data, which results from weather condition dependent forecast errors.

  2. Intensity of Territorial Marking Predicts Wolf Reproduction: Implications for Wolf Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    García, Emilio J.

    2014-01-01

    Background The implementation of intensive and complex approaches to monitor large carnivores is resource demanding, restricted to endangered species, small populations, or small distribution ranges. Wolf monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult, but the management of such contentious species requires regular estimations of abundance to guide decision-makers. The integration of wolf marking behaviour with simple sign counts may offer a cost-effective alternative to monitor the status of wolf populations over large spatial scales. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a multi-sampling approach, based on the collection of visual and scent wolf marks (faeces and ground scratching) and the assessment of wolf reproduction using howling and observation points, to test whether the intensity of marking behaviour around the pup-rearing period (summer-autumn) could reflect wolf reproduction. Between 1994 and 2007 we collected 1,964 wolf marks in a total of 1,877 km surveyed and we searched for the pups' presence (1,497 howling and 307 observations points) in 42 sampling sites with a regular presence of wolves (120 sampling sites/year). The number of wolf marks was ca. 3 times higher in sites with a confirmed presence of pups (20.3 vs. 7.2 marks). We found a significant relationship between the number of wolf marks (mean and maximum relative abundance index) and the probability of wolf reproduction. Conclusions/Significance This research establishes a real-time relationship between the intensity of wolf marking behaviour and wolf reproduction. We suggest a conservative cutting point of 0.60 for the probability of wolf reproduction to monitor wolves on a regional scale combined with the use of the mean relative abundance index of wolf marks in a given area. We show how the integration of wolf behaviour with simple sampling procedures permit rapid, real-time, and cost-effective assessments of the breeding status of wolf packs with substantial implications to monitor

  3. The Challenges of Developing a Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction (Alfred Wegener Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Eric F.

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ("From Observations to Decisions") recognizes that "water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity", and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the developments at Princeton University towards a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict

  4. COMPLEMENTARY CO-KRIGING: SPATIAL PREDICTION USING DATA COMBINED FROM, SEVERAL POLLUTION MONITORING NETWORKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We consider the problem of optimal spatial prediction of an environmental variable using data from more than one sampling network. A model incorporating spatial dependence and measurement errors with network-specific biases and variances serves as the basis for the analysis of th...

  5. MRI Biomarkers for Hand-Motor Outcome Prediction and Therapy Monitoring following Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Horn, U.; Grothe, M.

    2016-01-01

    Several biomarkers have been identified which enable a considerable prediction of hand-motor outcome after cerebral damage already in the subacute stage after stroke. We here review the value of MRI biomarkers in the evaluation of corticospinal integrity and functional recruitment of motor resources. Many of the functional imaging parameters are not feasible early after stroke or for patients with high impairment and low compliance. Whereas functional connectivity parameters have demonstrated varying results on their predictive value for hand-motor outcome, corticospinal integrity evaluation using structural imaging showed robust and high predictive power for patients with different levels of impairment. Although this is indicative of an overall higher value of structural imaging for prediction, we suggest that this variation be explained by structure and function relationships. To gain more insight into the recovering brain, not only one biomarker is needed. We rather argue for a combination of different measures in an algorithm to classify fine-graded subgroups of patients. Approaches to determining biomarkers have to take into account the established markers to provide further information on certain subgroups. Assessing the best therapy approaches for individual patients will become more feasible as these subgroups become specified in more detail. This procedure will help to considerably save resources and optimize neurorehabilitative therapy. PMID:27747108

  6. Near-infrared diffuse optical monitoring of cerebral blood flow and oxygenation for the prediction of vasovagal syncope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Ran; Shang, Yu; Wang, Siqi; Evans, Joyce M.; Rayapati, Abner; Randall, David C.; Yu, Guoqiang

    2014-01-01

    Significant drops in arterial blood pressure and cerebral hemodynamics have been previously observed during vasovagal syncope (VVS). Continuous and simultaneous monitoring of these physiological variables during VVS is rare, but critical for determining which variable is the most sensitive parameter to predict VVS. The present study used a novel custom-designed diffuse correlation spectroscopy flow-oximeter and a finger plethysmograph to simultaneously monitor relative changes of cerebral blood flow (rCBF), cerebral oxygenation (i.e., oxygenated/deoxygenated/total hemoglobin concentration: r[HbO2]/r[Hb]/rTHC), and mean arterial pressure (rMAP) during 70 deg head-up tilt (HUT) in 14 healthy adults. Six subjects developed presyncope during HUT. Two-stage physiological responses during HUT were observed in the presyncopal group: slow and small changes in measured variables (i.e., Stage I), followed by rapid and dramatic decreases in rMAP, rCBF, r[HbO2], and rTHC (i.e., Stage II). Compared to other physiological variables, rCBF reached its breakpoint between the two stages earliest and had the largest decrease (76±8%) during presyncope. Our results suggest that rCBF has the best sensitivity for the assessment of VVS. Most importantly, a threshold of ˜50% rCBF decline completely separated the subjects from those without presyncope, suggesting its potential for predicting VVS.

  7. Can intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring during cervical spine decompression predict post-operative segmental C5 palsy?

    PubMed Central

    Blaskiewicz, Donald J.; Ramirez, Bertha; Zhang, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Background C5 nerve root palsy is a known complication after cervical laminectomy or laminoplasty, characterized by weakness of the deltoid and bicep brachii muscles. The efficacy of intraoperative monitoring of these muscles is currently unclear. In the current prospective study, intraoperative monitoring through somatosensory (SSEPs), motor (TcMEPs) evoked potentials and real-time electromyography activity (EMG) were analyzed for their ability to detect or prevent deltoid muscle weakness after surgery. Methods One hundred consecutive patients undergoing laminectomy/laminoplasty with or without fusion were enrolled. Intraoperative SSEPs, TcMEPs and EMGs from each patient were studied and analyzed. Results Intraoperative EMG activity of the C5 nerve root was detected in 34 cases, 10 of which demonstrated a sustained and repetitive EMG activity lasting 5 or more minutes. Paresis of the unilateral deltoid muscle developed in 5 patients, all from the group with sustained C5 EMG activity. None of the patients with weakness of deltoid muscle after surgery demonstrated any abnormal change in TcMEP or SSEP. Conclusions Real-time EMG recordings were sensitive to C5 nerve root irritation, whilst SSEPs and TcMEPs were not. Sustained EMG activity of the C5 nerve root during surgery is a possible warning sign of irritation or injury to the nerve. PMID:27757428

  8. Using remote sensing and grid-based meteorological datasets for regional soybean crop yield prediction and crop monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mali, Preeti

    Regional crop yield estimations using crop models is a national priority due to its contributions to crop security assessment and food pricing policies. Many of these crop yield assessments are performed using time-consuming, intensive field surveys. This research was initiated to test the applicability of remote sensing and grid-based meteorological model data for providing improved and efficient predictive capabilities for crop bio-productivity. The soybean prediction model (Sinclair model) used in this research, requires daily data inputs to simulate yield which are temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, day length initialization of certain soil moisture parameters for each model run. The traditional meteorological datasets were compared with simulated South American Land Data Assimilation System (SALDAS) meteorological datasets for Sinclair model runs and for initializing soil moisture inputs. Considering the fact that grid-based meteorological data has the resolution of 1/8th of a degree, the estimations demonstrated a reasonable accuracy level and showed promise for increase in efficiency for regional level yield predictions. The research tested daily composited Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor (both AQUA and TERRA platform) and simulated Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor product (a new sensor planned to be launched in the near future) for crop growth and development based on phenological events. The AQUA and TERRA fusion based daily MODIS NDVI was utilized to develop a planting date estimation method. The results have shown that daily MODIS composited NDVI values have the capability for enhanced monitoring of soybean crop growth and development. The method was able to predict planting date within +/-3.4 days. A geoprocessing framework for extracting data from the grid data sources was developed. Overall, this study was able to demonstrate the utility of

  9. Evaluation of calving indicators measured by automated monitoring devices to predict the onset of calving in Holstein dairy cows.

    PubMed

    Ouellet, V; Vasseur, E; Heuwieser, W; Burfeind, O; Maldague, X; Charbonneau, É

    2016-02-01

    Dystocias are common in dairy cows and often adversely affect production, reproduction, animal welfare, labor, and economics within the dairy industry. An automated device that accurately predicts the onset of calving could potentially minimize the effect of dystocias by enabling producers to intervene early. Although many well-documented indicators can detect the imminence of calving, research is limited on their effectiveness to predict calving when measured by automated devices. The objective of this experiment was to determine if a decrease in vaginal temperature (VT), rumination (RT), and lying time (LT), or an increase in lying bouts (LB), as measured by 3 automated devices, could accurately predict the onset of calving within 24, 12, and 6 h. The combination of these 4 calving indicators was also evaluated. Forty-two multiparous Holstein cows housed in tie-stalls were fitted with a temperature logger inserted in the vaginal cavity 7±2 d before their expected calving date; VT was recorded at 1-min intervals. An ear-attached sensor recorded rumination time every hour based on ear movement while an accelerometer fitted to the right hind leg recorded cow position at 1-min intervals. On average, VT were 0.3±0.03°C lower, and RT and LT were 41±17 and 52±28 min lower, respectively, on the calving day compared with the previous 4 d. Cows had 2±1 more LB on the calving day. Of the 4 indicators, a decrease in VT≥0.1°C was best able to predict calving within the next 24 h with a sensitivity of 74%, specificity of 74%, positive and negative predictive values of 51 and 89%, and area under the curve of 0.80. Combining the indicators enhanced the performance to predict calving within the next 24, 12, and 6 h with best overall results obtained by combining the 3 devices for prediction within the next 24 h (sensitivity: 77%, specificity: 77%, positive and negative predictive values: 56 and 90%, area under the curve: 0.82). These results indicate that a device that

  10. Investigation of Bearing Fatigue Damage Life Prediction Using Oil Debris Monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Bolander, Nathan; Haynes, Chris; Toms, Allison M.

    2011-01-01

    Research was performed to determine if a diagnostic tool for detecting fatigue damage of helicopter tapered roller bearings can be used to determine remaining useful life (RUL). The taper roller bearings under study were installed on the tail gearbox (TGB) output shaft of UH- 60M helicopters, removed from the helicopters and subsequently installed in a bearing spall propagation test rig. The diagnostic tool was developed and evaluated experimentally by collecting oil debris data during spall progression tests on four bearings. During each test, data from an on-line, in-line, inductance type oil debris sensor was monitored and recorded for the occurrence of pitting damage. Results from the four bearings tested indicate that measuring the debris generated when a bearing outer race begins to spall can be used to indicate bearing damage progression and remaining bearing life.

  11. In situ damage monitoring in vibration mechanics: diagnostics and predictive maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basseville, M.; Benveniste, A.; Gach-Devauchelle, B.; Goursat, M.; Bonnecase, D.; Dorey, P.; Prevosto, M.; Olagnon, M.

    1993-09-01

    A system identification approach is presented for damage monitoring in vibration mechanics. Identification, detection, and diagnostics are performed using accelerometer measurements from the system at work so that the excitation is not controlled, usually not observed and may involve turbulent phenomena. Targeted applications include power engineering (rotating machines, core and pipes of nuclear power plants), civil engineering (large buildings subject to hurricanes or earthquakes, bridges, dams, offshore structures), aeronautics (wings and other structures subject to strength), automobile, rail transportation etc. The method is illustrated by a laboratory example, and the results of 3 years industrial usage. This paper is a progress report on a 10 year project involving three people almost permanently. We describe here the whole approach but omit the technical details which are available in previous papers.

  12. Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2006-01-01

    their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

  13. Potential of the Thermal Infrared Wavelength Region to predict semi-arid Soil Surface Properties for Remote Sensing Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisele, Andreas; Chabrillat, Sabine; Lau, Ian; Hecker, Christoph; Hewson, Robert; Carter, Dan; Wheaton, Buddy; Ong, Cindy; Cudahy, Thomas John; Kaufmann, Hermann

    2014-05-01

    Digital soil mapping with the means of passive remote sensing basically relies on the soils' spectral characteristics and an appropriate atmospheric window, where electromagnetic radiation transmits without significant attenuation. Traditionally the atmospheric window in the solar-reflective wavelength region (visible, VIS: 0.4 - 0.7 μm; near infrared, NIR: 0.7 - 1.1 μm; shortwave infrared, SWIR: 1.1 - 2.5 μm) has been used to quantify soil surface properties. However, spectral characteristics of semi-arid soils, typically have a coarse quartz rich texture and iron coatings that can limit the prediction of soil surface properties. In this study we investigated the potential of the atmospheric window in the thermal wavelength region (long wave infrared, LWIR: 8 - 14 μm) to predict soil surface properties such as the grain size distribution (texture) and the organic carbon content (SOC) for coarse-textured soils from the Australian wheat belt region. This region suffers soil loss due to wind erosion processes and large scale monitoring techniques, such as remote sensing, is urgently required to observe the dynamic changes of such soil properties. The coarse textured sandy soils of the investigated area require methods, which can measure the special spectral response of the quartz dominated mineralogy with iron oxide enriched grain coatings. By comparison, the spectroscopy using the solar-reflective region has limitations to discriminate such arid soil mineralogy and associated coatings. Such monitoring is important for observing potential desertification trends associated with coarsening of topsoil texture and reduction in SOC. In this laboratory study we identified the relevant LWIR wavelengths to predict these soil surface properties. The results showed the ability of multivariate analyses methods (PLSR) to predict these soil properties from the soil's spectral signature, where the texture parameters (clay and sand content) could be predicted well in the models

  14. Comparison of two online flocculation monitoring techniques for predicting turbidity removal by granular media filtration.

    PubMed

    Ball, T; Carrière, A; Barbeau, B

    2011-07-01

    Particulate matter removal in drinking water treatment via direct granular filtration requires specific flocculation conditions (a process typically termed 'high energy flocculation'). Predicting filtered water turbidity based on flocculated water characteristics remains difficult. This study has sought to establish a relationship between filtered water turbidity and the flocculated water characteristics. Flocculation oflow-turbidity raw water was evaluated online using a Photometric Dispersion Analyser (PDA) and a Dynamic Particle Analyser in a modified jar test followed by a bench-scale anthracite filter. Coagulants used were alum, PASS100 and ferric sulphate, in addition to a polydiallyldimethylammonium chloride (polyDADMAC) cationic polymer. They were dosed in warm and cold waters, and flocculated with intensities (G) from 0 to 100 s(-1). Of the two instruments selected to analyse flocculation performance, the Dynamic Particle Analyser was shown to be the most sensitive, detecting small changes in floc growth kinetics and even floc growth under low flocculation conditions which remained undetected by the PDA. Floc size was shown to be insufficient in predicting particulate matter removal by direct granular filtration as measured by turbidity, although a threshold d(v) value (50 microm) could be identified for the test conditions evaluated in this project, above which turbidity was systematically lower than 0.2 NTU.

  15. Comparison of two online flocculation monitoring techniques for predicting turbidity removal by granular media filtration.

    PubMed

    Ball, T; Carrière, A; Barbeau, B

    2011-07-01

    Particulate matter removal in drinking water treatment via direct granular filtration requires specific flocculation conditions (a process typically termed 'high energy flocculation'). Predicting filtered water turbidity based on flocculated water characteristics remains difficult. This study has sought to establish a relationship between filtered water turbidity and the flocculated water characteristics. Flocculation oflow-turbidity raw water was evaluated online using a Photometric Dispersion Analyser (PDA) and a Dynamic Particle Analyser in a modified jar test followed by a bench-scale anthracite filter. Coagulants used were alum, PASS100 and ferric sulphate, in addition to a polydiallyldimethylammonium chloride (polyDADMAC) cationic polymer. They were dosed in warm and cold waters, and flocculated with intensities (G) from 0 to 100 s(-1). Of the two instruments selected to analyse flocculation performance, the Dynamic Particle Analyser was shown to be the most sensitive, detecting small changes in floc growth kinetics and even floc growth under low flocculation conditions which remained undetected by the PDA. Floc size was shown to be insufficient in predicting particulate matter removal by direct granular filtration as measured by turbidity, although a threshold d(v) value (50 microm) could be identified for the test conditions evaluated in this project, above which turbidity was systematically lower than 0.2 NTU. PMID:21882562

  16. Implantable microelectromechanical sensors for diagnostic monitoring and post-surgical prediction of bone fracture healing.

    PubMed

    McGilvray, Kirk C; Unal, Emre; Troyer, Kevin L; Santoni, Brandon G; Palmer, Ross H; Easley, Jeremiah T; Demir, Hilmi Volkan; Puttlitz, Christian M

    2015-10-01

    The relationship between modern clinical diagnostic data, such as from radiographs or computed tomography, and the temporal biomechanical integrity of bone fracture healing has not been well-established. A diagnostic tool that could quantitatively describe the biomechanical stability of the fracture site in order to predict the course of healing would represent a paradigm shift in the way fracture healing is evaluated. This paper describes the development and evaluation of a wireless, biocompatible, implantable, microelectromechanical system (bioMEMS) sensor, and its implementation in a large animal (ovine) model, that utilized both normal and delayed healing variants. The in vivo data indicated that the bioMEMS sensor was capable of detecting statistically significant differences (p-value <0.04) between the two fracture healing groups as early as 21 days post-fracture. In addition, post-sacrifice micro-computed tomography, and histology data demonstrated that the two model variants represented significantly different fracture healing outcomes, providing explicit supporting evidence that the sensor has the ability to predict differential healing cascades. These data verify that the bioMEMS sensor can be used as a diagnostic tool for detecting the in vivo course of fracture healing in the acute post-treatment period.

  17. Implantable microelectromechanical sensors for diagnostic monitoring and post-surgical prediction of bone fracture healing.

    PubMed

    McGilvray, Kirk C; Unal, Emre; Troyer, Kevin L; Santoni, Brandon G; Palmer, Ross H; Easley, Jeremiah T; Demir, Hilmi Volkan; Puttlitz, Christian M

    2015-10-01

    The relationship between modern clinical diagnostic data, such as from radiographs or computed tomography, and the temporal biomechanical integrity of bone fracture healing has not been well-established. A diagnostic tool that could quantitatively describe the biomechanical stability of the fracture site in order to predict the course of healing would represent a paradigm shift in the way fracture healing is evaluated. This paper describes the development and evaluation of a wireless, biocompatible, implantable, microelectromechanical system (bioMEMS) sensor, and its implementation in a large animal (ovine) model, that utilized both normal and delayed healing variants. The in vivo data indicated that the bioMEMS sensor was capable of detecting statistically significant differences (p-value <0.04) between the two fracture healing groups as early as 21 days post-fracture. In addition, post-sacrifice micro-computed tomography, and histology data demonstrated that the two model variants represented significantly different fracture healing outcomes, providing explicit supporting evidence that the sensor has the ability to predict differential healing cascades. These data verify that the bioMEMS sensor can be used as a diagnostic tool for detecting the in vivo course of fracture healing in the acute post-treatment period. PMID:26174472

  18. Presepsin is an early monitoring biomarker for predicting clinical outcome in patients with sepsis.

    PubMed

    Ali, Fahmy T; Ali, Mohamed A M; Elnakeeb, Mostafa M; Bendary, Heba N M

    2016-09-01

    Despite their undoubted helpfulness in diagnosing sepsis, increased blood C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) levels have been described in many noninfectious conditions. Presepsin is a soluble fragment of the cluster of differentiation 14 involved in pathogen recognition by innate immunity. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic and prognostic performance of presepsin in comparison to PCT and CRP in patients presenting with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and suspected sepsis. Seventy-six subjects were enrolled in this study, including 51 patients with SIRS as well as 25 healthy subjects. Plasma presepsin, PCT and CRP levels were serially measured on admission and at days 1, 3, 7 and 15. Presepsin and PCT yielded similar diagnostic accuracy, whereas presepsin performed significantly better than CRP. Presepsin and PCT showed comparable performance for predicting 28-day mortality, and both biomarkers performed significantly better than CRP. In septic patients, presepsin revealed earlier concentration changes over time when compared to PCT and CRP. Presepsin and PCT could differentiate between septic and non-septic patients with comparable accuracy and both biomarkers showed similar performance for predicting 28-day mortality. Early changes in presepsin concentrations might reflect the appropriateness of the therapeutic modality and could be useful for making effective treatment decisions. PMID:27353646

  19. Monitoring of the stress state variations of the Southern California for the purpose of earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gokhberg, M.; Garagash, I.; Bondur, V.; Steblov, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    The three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California was developed, including a mountain relief, fault tectonics and characteristic internal features such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface. The initial stress state of the model is governed by the gravitational forces and horizontal tectonic motions estimated from GPS observations. The analysis shows that the three-dimensional geomechanical models allows monitoring of the changes in the stress state during the seismic process in order to constrain the distribution of the future places with increasing seismic activity. This investigation demonstrates one of possible approach to monitor upcoming seismicity for the periods of days - weeks - months. Continuous analysis of the stress state was carried out during 2009-2014. Each new earthquake with М~1 and above from USGS catalog was considered as the new defect of the Earth crust which has some definite size and causes redistribution of the stress state. Overall calculation technique was based on the single function of the Earth crust damage, recalculated each half month. As a result each half month in the upper crust layers and partially in the middle layers we revealed locations of the maximal values of the stress state parameters: elastic energy density, shear stress, proximity of the earth crust layers to their strength limit. All these parameters exhibit similar spatial and temporal distribution. How follows from observations all four strongest events with М ~ 5.5-7.2 occurred in South California during the analyzed period were prefaced by the parameters anomalies in peculiar advance time of weeks-months in the vicinity of 10-50 km from the upcoming earthquake. After the event the stress state source disappeared. The figure shows migration of the maximums of the stress state variations gradients (parameter D) in the vicinity of the epicenter of the earthquake 04.04.2010 with М=7.2 in the period of 01.01.2010-01.05.2010. Grey lines

  20. Healthcare in Australia.

    PubMed

    Dalton-Brown, Sally

    2016-07-01

    No single issue has dominated health practitioners' ethical debates in 2014 in Australia, but a controversial decision on gene patenting and the media focus on "Dr. Death," euthanasia campaigner Dr. Philip Nitschke, have given new life to these two familiar (and global) debates. Currently a dying with dignity bill, drafted by the Australian Green Party, is under examination. The Senate inquiry into the bill received more than 663 submissions, with 57% opposed and 43% in support of the bill, which has now been referred to a Senate committee. Will this be another of Australia's failed attempts to legalize euthanasia? The trial of Dr. Nitschke begins on November 10, 2014. PMID:27348826

  1. Monitoring methods and predictive models for water status in Jonathan apples.

    PubMed

    Trincă, Lucia Carmen; Căpraru, Adina-Mirela; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Volf, Irina; Chiruţă, Ciprian

    2014-02-01

    Evaluation of water status in Jonathan apples was performed for 20 days. Loss moisture content (LMC) was carried out through slow drying of wholes apples and the moisture content (MC) was carried out through oven drying and lyophilisation for apple samples (chunks, crushed and juice). We approached a non-destructive method to evaluate LMC and MC of apples using image processing and multilayer neural networks (NN) predictor. We proposed a new simple algorithm that selects the texture descriptors based on initial set heuristically chosen. Both structure and weights of NN are optimised by a genetic algorithm with variable length genotype that led to a high precision of the predictive model (R(2)=0.9534). In our opinion, the developing of this non-destructive method for the assessment of LMC and MC (and of other chemical parameters) seems to be very promising in online inspection of food quality.

  2. Airborne monitoring of crop canopy temperatures for irrigation scheduling and yield prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Millard, J. P.; Jackson, R. D.; Reginato, R. J.; Idso, S. B.; Goettelman, R. C.; Lapado, R. L.

    1977-01-01

    The aim of the program discussed was to develop techniques for remotely measuring crop irrigation needs and predicting crop yields, with emphasis on wheat. Airborne measurements, using an IR line scanner and color IR photography, were made to evaluate the feasibility of measuring minimum and maximum (dawn and afternoon) crop temperatures to compute a parameter, termed 'stress degree day' (SDD) - a valuable indicator of crop water needs, which can be related to irrigation scheduling and yield. Crop canopy temperature measurements by airborne IR techniques revealed the superiority of thermal IR data over color IR photography. Water stress undetected in the latter technique was clearly detected in thermal imagery. Color IR photography, however, is valuable in discerning vegetation. The pseudo-colored temperature-difference images (and pseudo-colored images, reading directly in daily SDD increments) are shown to be well suited for assessing plant water status and, thus, for determining the irrigation needs and crop yield potentials.

  3. Monitoring and Predicting Wildfire Using Fire Indices and CIMP5 Data (Case study: Golestan National Park)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirzadeh, S. J.; Salehnia, N.; Banezhad, B.; Bannayan, M.

    2015-12-01

    Fire occurrence in fields and forest, is quite high in Iran which has intensified recently and it may be due to climate changes. Golestan National Park, is the first national park in Iran which is registered in the list of UNESCO World Heritage as one of the 50 Earth ecological reserves. In 2014, a number of fire occurred in this park. In this study, attempt to monitor Angstrom and Nestrov indexes in order to forecast future fire in the study area. For this purpose, Atmosphere General Circulation model data; Miroc4h, in 0.562*0.562 scale in CIMP5, are used for fire occurred during 4 days in this area. Calculations show that these indicators provide suitable results in fire forecasting, generally. Angstrom index, decreases to 1 or lower almost in 3 fire, in the starting day or one day before; while critical index values is lower than 2. In recent days before first fire, Nestrov index increases above 10000, which is the critical value. It also increases to 25000 during the other fires. Nestrov index increases during the happening of 4 fire without any decrease. The results show that Angstrom index can forecast the day of starting fires better than Nestrov. Conclusively, the results showed that outputs of CIMP5 can be used in forecasting fire, well. It seems that the value index better not to be dependent on daily precipitation but on consecutive and continues precipitations during serial days.

  4. Chemiluminescence as a condition monitoring method for thermal aging and lifetime prediction of an HTPB elastomer.

    SciTech Connect

    Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Minier, Leanna M. G.; Celina, Mathias Christopher; Trujillo, Ana B.

    2007-03-01

    Chemiluminescence (CL) has been applied as a condition monitoring technique to assess aging related changes in a hydroxyl-terminated-polybutadiene based polyurethane elastomer. Initial thermal aging of this polymer was conducted between 110 and 50 C. Two CL methods were applied to examine the degradative changes that had occurred in these aged samples: isothermal 'wear-out' experiments under oxygen yielding initial CL intensity and 'wear-out' time data, and temperature ramp experiments under inert conditions as a measure of previously accumulated hydroperoxides or other reactive species. The sensitivities of these CL features to prior aging exposure of the polymer were evaluated on the basis of qualifying this method as a quick screening technique for quantification of degradation levels. Both the techniques yielded data representing the aging trends in this material via correlation with mechanical property changes. Initial CL rates from the isothermal experiments are the most sensitive and suitable approach for documenting material changes during the early part of thermal aging.

  5. Monitoring and predicting eutrophication of Sri Lankan inland waters using ASTER satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahanayaka, D. D. G. L.; Wijeyaratne, M. J. S.; Tonooka, H.; Minato, A.; Ozawa, S.; Perera, B. D. C.

    2014-10-01

    This study focused on determining the past changes and predicting the future trends in eutrophication of the Bolgoda North lake, Sri Lanka using in situ Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) measurements and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer (ASTER) satellite data. This Lake is located in a mixed land use area with industries, some agricultural lands, middle income and high income housing, tourist hotels and low income housing. From March to October 2013, water samples from five sampling sites were collected once a month parallel to ASTER overpass and Chl-a, nitrate and phosphate contents of each sample were measured using standard laboratory methods. Cloud-free ASTER scenes over the lake during the 2000-2013 periods were acquired for Chl-a estimation and trend analysis. All ASTER images were atmospherically corrected using FLAASH software and in-situ Chl-a data were regressed with atmospherically corrected three ASTER VNIR band ratios of the same date. The regression equation of the band ratio and Chl-a content with the highest correlation, which was the green/red band ratio was used to develop algorithm for generation of 15-m resolution Chl-a distribution maps. According to the ASTER based Chl-a distribution maps it was evident that eutrophication of this lake has gradually increased from 2008-2011. Results also indicated that there had been significantly high eutrophic conditions throughout the year 2013 in several regions, especially in water stagnant areas and adjacent to freshwater outlets. Field observations showed that this lake is receiving various discharges from factories. Unplanned urbanization and inadequacy of proper facilities in the nearby industries for waste management have resulted in the eutrophication of the water body. If the present trends of waste disposal and unplanned urbanization continue, enormous environmental problems would be resulted in future. Results of the present study showed that information from satellite remote

  6. A global observing system for monitoring and prediction of sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Lee-Lueng

    The rise of global sea level is a direct consequence of climate change. A one-meter rise by the end of the century is estimated to have global economic impacts by trillions of US dollars and displacement of 10% of the world’s population if no adaptation is applied. Before the advent of satellite observations of sea surface height with radar altimetry, it was not possible to make direct determination of the global mean sea level. The sparsely located tide gauges were not able to sample the uneven spatial distribution of sea level change, leading to biased measurement. The 20-year record from satellite altimetry is the first directly measured time series of the global mean sea level. The satellite’s uniform global sampling also reveals the complex geographic pattern of sea level change over the past 20 years, underscoring the uncertainty from sparse tide gauge measurement. The contributions to recent sea level rise have roughly equal partitions among the steric effect from ocean warming, the melting of mountain glaciers, and the melting of polar ice sheets. The measurement of the change of Earth’s gravity field from the GRACE Mission has for the first time provided direct observation of the mass added to the ocean from ice melting. The difference between altimetry and gravity measurements is attributed to the steric sea level change, which has been observed by an in-situ network of float measurement (Argo). The intercomparison of satellite and in-situ observations has provided cross-calibration and mutual validation of the measurement system, demonstrating a calibrated measurement system for global sea level. The ability to diagnose sea level change in terms of its various components represents a key step towards understanding the physical processes. In order to assess the societal impact of sea level rise, one must be able to predict its regional pattern, which involves a host of other factors. The prediction of sea level change thus requires an Earth system

  7. Role of CT Perfusion in Monitoring and Prediction of Response to Therapy of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Preda, Lorenzo; Moscatelli, Marco Elvio Manlio; Cossu Rocca, Maria

    2014-01-01

    This review aims to summarize the technique and clinical applications of CT perfusion (CTp) of head and neck cancer. The most common pathologic type (90%) of head and neck cancer is squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC): its diagnostic workup relies on CT and MRI, as they provide an accurate staging for the disease by determining tumour volume, assessing its extension, and detecting of lymph node metastases. Compared with conventional CT and MRI, CTp allows for obtaining measures of tumour vascular physiology and functional behaviour, and it has been demonstrated to be a feasible and useful tool in predicting local outcomes in patients undergoing radiation therapy and chemotherapy and may help monitor both treatments. PMID:25140324

  8. Monitoring and predicting the fecal indicator bacteria concentrations from agricultural, mixed land use and urban stormwater runoff.

    PubMed

    Paule-Mercado, M A; Ventura, J S; Memon, S A; Jahng, D; Kang, J-H; Lee, C-H

    2016-04-15

    While the urban runoff are increasingly being studied as a source of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), less is known about the occurrence of FIB in watershed with mixed land use and ongoing land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this study, Escherichia coli (EC) and fecal streptococcus (FS) were monitored from 2012 to 2013 in agricultural, mixed and urban LULC and analyzed according to the most probable number (MPN). Pearson correlation was used to determine the relationship between FIB and environmental parameters (physicochemical and hydrometeorological). Multiple linear regressions (MLR) were used to identify the significant parameters that affect the FIB concentrations and to predict the response of FIB in LULC change. Overall, the FIB concentrations were higher in urban LULC (EC=3.33-7.39; FS=3.30-7.36log10MPN/100mL) possibly because of runoff from commercial market and 100% impervious cover (IC). Also, during early-summer season; this reflects a greater persistence and growth rate of FIB in a warmer environment. During intra-event, however, the FIB concentrations varied according to site condition. Anthropogenic activities and IC influenced the correlation between the FIB concentrations and environmental parameters. Stormwater temperature (TEMP), turbidity, and TSS positively correlated with the FIB concentrations (p>0.01), since IC increased, implying an accumulation of bacterial sources in urban activities. TEMP, BOD5, turbidity, TSS, and antecedent dry days (ADD) were the most significant explanatory variables for FIB as determined in MLR, possibly because they promoted the FIB growth and survival. The model confirmed the FIB concentrations: EC (R(2)=0.71-0.85; NSE=0.72-0.86) and FS (R(2)=0.65-0.83; NSE=0.66-0.84) are predicted to increase due to urbanization. Therefore, these findings will help in stormwater monitoring strategies, designing the best management practice for FIB removal and as input data for stormwater models.

  9. Monitoring and predicting the fecal indicator bacteria concentrations from agricultural, mixed land use and urban stormwater runoff.

    PubMed

    Paule-Mercado, M A; Ventura, J S; Memon, S A; Jahng, D; Kang, J-H; Lee, C-H

    2016-04-15

    While the urban runoff are increasingly being studied as a source of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), less is known about the occurrence of FIB in watershed with mixed land use and ongoing land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this study, Escherichia coli (EC) and fecal streptococcus (FS) were monitored from 2012 to 2013 in agricultural, mixed and urban LULC and analyzed according to the most probable number (MPN). Pearson correlation was used to determine the relationship between FIB and environmental parameters (physicochemical and hydrometeorological). Multiple linear regressions (MLR) were used to identify the significant parameters that affect the FIB concentrations and to predict the response of FIB in LULC change. Overall, the FIB concentrations were higher in urban LULC (EC=3.33-7.39; FS=3.30-7.36log10MPN/100mL) possibly because of runoff from commercial market and 100% impervious cover (IC). Also, during early-summer season; this reflects a greater persistence and growth rate of FIB in a warmer environment. During intra-event, however, the FIB concentrations varied according to site condition. Anthropogenic activities and IC influenced the correlation between the FIB concentrations and environmental parameters. Stormwater temperature (TEMP), turbidity, and TSS positively correlated with the FIB concentrations (p>0.01), since IC increased, implying an accumulation of bacterial sources in urban activities. TEMP, BOD5, turbidity, TSS, and antecedent dry days (ADD) were the most significant explanatory variables for FIB as determined in MLR, possibly because they promoted the FIB growth and survival. The model confirmed the FIB concentrations: EC (R(2)=0.71-0.85; NSE=0.72-0.86) and FS (R(2)=0.65-0.83; NSE=0.66-0.84) are predicted to increase due to urbanization. Therefore, these findings will help in stormwater monitoring strategies, designing the best management practice for FIB removal and as input data for stormwater models. PMID:26895037

  10. The GEO Water Strategy: Advances in Monitoring, Modeling, and Predicting Groundwater Variations at Regional to Local Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, N. L.; Heinrich, L.; Kukuri, N.; Plag, H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Rodell, M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater remains one of the most important freshwater resources, especially during droughts and as global warming increases. For informed decisions on managing these resources sustainably, it is important to have sound assessments of the current state of groundwater resources as well as future predictions. This requires reliable groundwater quantity and quality data. However global access to this data is limited. As part of the GEOSS Water Strategy, the International Groundwater Assessment Centre (IGRAC) is therefore implementing the Global Groundwater Monitoring Network (GGMN). The GGMN facilitates periodic assessments of changes in groundwater quantity and quality by aggregating data and information from existing groundwater monitoring networks and regional hydrogeological knowledge (Fig. 1). The GGMN is a participatory process that relies upon contributions from regional and national networks of groundwater experts. Such observation data, along with local well data, surface displacements observed by and GPS data and InSAR, and local in situ gravity data, are necessary for evaluation and simulation of groundwater, leading to improved understanding and prediction of groundwater variations. In conjunction with these observations, regional scale groundwater variations are derived as a residual from land surface-groundwater models through extraction of the total mass of water using geo-rectified Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. Such model-based studies have quantified overdraft and regions at risk of groundwater depletion in parts of Asia, US, and Africa (Fig. 2).We provide an overview of these systems, planned missions, and new model-based approaches toward local-scale methods for assimilation of well data for several regions.igure 1. Example of GGMN (Example of Botswana with fictitious data, with local precipitation map) igure 2. GRACE-derived groundwater storage in northwestern India for 2002 - 2008, relative to the mean. Deviations from

  11. Teaching about Australia. ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prior, Warren R.

    Many reasons can be offered for teaching about Australia. The field of Australian studies offers many opportunities for U.S. teachers and students to critically analyze aspects of their own culture, for there are many experiences in the history of Australia that parallel the U.S. experience. Australia and the United States have strong ongoing…

  12. [Monitoring sheet covering long-term chemotherapy to predict individual adverse reaction patterns for patients with gynecologic chemotherapy].

    PubMed

    Doi, Chiaki; Iihara, Naomi; Kawazoe, Hitoshi; Fukuoka, Noriyasu; Houchi, Hitoshi; Kurosaki, Yuji; Morita, Shushi

    2007-06-01

    Monitoring the adverse reaction patterns specific to individual patients is important to avoid subsequent reactions. Gynecologic cancer chemotherapy is often implemented repeatedly with an altered protocol during prolonged terms. The purpose of this study was to develop and assess the efficacy of a worksheet that pharmacists can use to analyze adverse reaction patterns in individual patients with gynecologic chemotherapy. The worksheet which we developed consisted of multiple sections. One section is for necessary drug information for the proper use of antineoplastic agents. Another section is for the following items recorded by the pharmacists: a) patients' basic information such as stage of disease and protocol, b) state of implementation and break of chemotherapy and supportive therapy on calendar, and c) laboratory data and symptoms. We arranged the last item below the calendar and enabled pharmacists to easily assess individual adverse reactions coupled with the treatment course. Reviews of the developed worksheet indicated that the worksheet led to the convenient detection of individual adverse reaction patterns and effective prevention of additional adverse reactions. This monitoring sheet covering long-term chemotherapy which was designed to predict individual adverse reaction patterns will improve the individualization and safety of gynecologic chemotherapy.

  13. Predictive modeling in Clostridium acetobutylicum fermentations employing Raman spectroscopy and multivariate data analysis for real-time culture monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zu, Theresah N. K.; Liu, Sanchao; Germane, Katherine L.; Servinsky, Matthew D.; Gerlach, Elliot S.; Mackie, David M.; Sund, Christian J.

    2016-05-01

    The coupling of optical fibers with Raman instrumentation has proven to be effective for real-time monitoring of chemical reactions and fermentations when combined with multivariate statistical data analysis. Raman spectroscopy is relatively fast, with little interference from the water peak present in fermentation media. Medical research has explored this technique for analysis of mammalian cultures for potential diagnosis of some cancers. Other organisms studied via this route include Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and some Bacillus sp., though very little work has been performed on Clostridium acetobutylicum cultures. C. acetobutylicum is a gram-positive anaerobic bacterium, which is highly sought after due to its ability to use a broad spectrum of substrates and produce useful byproducts through the well-known Acetone-Butanol-Ethanol (ABE) fermentation. In this work, real-time Raman data was acquired from C. acetobutylicum cultures grown on glucose. Samples were collected concurrently for comparative off-line product analysis. Partial-least squares (PLS) models were built both for agitated cultures and for static cultures from both datasets. Media components and metabolites monitored include glucose, butyric acid, acetic acid, and butanol. Models were cross-validated with independent datasets. Experiments with agitation were more favorable for modeling with goodness of fit (QY) values of 0.99 and goodness of prediction (Q2Y) values of 0.98. Static experiments did not model as well as agitated experiments. Raman results showed the static experiments were chaotic, especially during and shortly after manual sampling.

  14. Daily ambient NO2 concentration predictions using satellite ozone monitoring instrument NO2 data and land use regression.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hyung Joo; Koutrakis, Petros

    2014-02-18

    Although ground measurements have contributed to revealing the association between ambient air pollution and health effects in epidemiological studies, exposure measurement errors are likely to be caused because of the sparse spatial distribution of ground monitors. In this study, we estimate daily ground NO2 concentrations in the New England region, U.S., for the period 2005-2010 using satellite remote sensing data in combination with land use regression. To estimate ground-level NO2 concentrations, we constructed a mixed effects model by taking advantage of spatial and temporal variability in satellite Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) tropospheric column NO2 densities. Using fine-scale land use parameters, we derived NO2 concentrations at point locations, which can be further used for subject-specific exposure estimates in epidemiological studies. A mixed effects model showed a reasonably high predictive power for daily NO2 concentrations (cross-validation R(2) = 0.79). We observed that the model performed similarly in each season, year, and state. The spatial patterns of model estimates reflected emission source areas (such as high populated/traffic areas) in the study region and revealed the seasonal characteristics of NO2. This study suggests that a combination of satellite remote sensing and land use regression can be useful for both spatially and temporally resolved exposure assessments of NO2.

  15. Uncertainty in Predicted Neighborhood-Scale Green Stormwater Infrastructure Performance Informed by field monitoring of Hydrologic Abstractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smalls-Mantey, L.; Jeffers, S.; Montalto, F. A.

    2013-12-01

    Human alterations to the environment provide infrastructure for housing and transportation but have drastically changed local hydrology. Excess stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces generates erosion, overburdens sewer infrastructure, and can pollute receiving bodies. Increased attention to green stormwater management controls is based on the premise that some of these issues can be mitigated by capturing or slowing the flow of stormwater. However, our ability to predict actual green infrastructure facility performance using physical or statistical methods needs additional validation, and efforts to incorporate green infrastructure controls into hydrologic models are still in their infancy stages. We use more than three years of field monitoring data to derive facility specific probability density functions characterizing the hydrologic abstractions provided by a stormwater treatment wetland, streetside bioretention facility, and a green roof. The monitoring results are normalized by impervious area treated, and incorporated into a neighborhood-scale agent model allowing probabilistic comparisons of the stormwater capture outcomes associated with alternative urban greening scenarios. Specifically, we compare the uncertainty introduced into the model by facility performance (as represented by the variability in the abstraction), to that introduced by both precipitation variability, and spatial patterns of emergence of different types of green infrastructure. The modeling results are used to update a discussion about the potential effectiveness of urban green infrastructure implementation plans.

  16. Developing LED UV fluorescence sensors for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment.

    PubMed

    Li, Wen-Tao; Jin, Jing; Li, Qiang; Wu, Chen-Fei; Lu, Hai; Zhou, Qing; Li, Ai-Min

    2016-04-15

    Online monitoring dissolved organic matter (DOM) is urgent for water treatment management. In this study, high performance size exclusion chromatography with multi-UV absorbance and multi-emission fluorescence scans were applied to spectrally characterize samples from 16 drinking water sources across Yangzi River and Huai River Watersheds. The UV absorbance indices at 254 nm and 280 nm referred to the same DOM components and concentration, and the 280 nm UV light could excite both protein-like and humic-like fluorescence. Hence a novel UV fluorescence sensor was developed out using only one UV280 light-emitting diode (LED) as light source. For all samples, enhanced coagulation was mainly effective for large molecular weight biopolymers; while anion exchange further substantially removed humic substances. During chlorination tests, UVA280 and UVA254 showed similar correlations with yields of disinfection byproducts (DBPs); the humic-like fluorescence obtained from LED sensors correlated well with both trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids yields, while the correlation between protein-like fluorescence and trihalomethanes was relatively poor. Anion exchange exhibited more reduction of DBPs yields as well as UV absorbance and fluorescence signals than enhanced coagulation. The results suggest that the LED UV fluorescence sensors are very promising for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment. PMID:26874469

  17. Developing LED UV fluorescence sensors for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment.

    PubMed

    Li, Wen-Tao; Jin, Jing; Li, Qiang; Wu, Chen-Fei; Lu, Hai; Zhou, Qing; Li, Ai-Min

    2016-04-15

    Online monitoring dissolved organic matter (DOM) is urgent for water treatment management. In this study, high performance size exclusion chromatography with multi-UV absorbance and multi-emission fluorescence scans were applied to spectrally characterize samples from 16 drinking water sources across Yangzi River and Huai River Watersheds. The UV absorbance indices at 254 nm and 280 nm referred to the same DOM components and concentration, and the 280 nm UV light could excite both protein-like and humic-like fluorescence. Hence a novel UV fluorescence sensor was developed out using only one UV280 light-emitting diode (LED) as light source. For all samples, enhanced coagulation was mainly effective for large molecular weight biopolymers; while anion exchange further substantially removed humic substances. During chlorination tests, UVA280 and UVA254 showed similar correlations with yields of disinfection byproducts (DBPs); the humic-like fluorescence obtained from LED sensors correlated well with both trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids yields, while the correlation between protein-like fluorescence and trihalomethanes was relatively poor. Anion exchange exhibited more reduction of DBPs yields as well as UV absorbance and fluorescence signals than enhanced coagulation. The results suggest that the LED UV fluorescence sensors are very promising for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment.

  18. Australia in the Pacific.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Kerry; Welch, Ian

    1988-01-01

    Discusses Australia's growth since European settlement and its development into a major world trader in industrial and high technology raw materials. Examines the country's expanding relations with New Zealand and other Pacific states which is the outgrowth of the realization that all will gain from greater international cooperation. (GEA)

  19. Library Automation in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blank, Karen L.

    1984-01-01

    Discussion of Australia's move toward library automation highlights development of a national bibliographic network, local and regional cooperation, integrated library systems, telecommunications, and online systems, as well as microcomputer usage, ergonomics, copyright issues, and national information policy. Information technology plans of the…

  20. Agricultural Education in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farquhar, R. N.

    This document is an English-language abstract (approximately 1,500 words) of a comprehensive survey of education and training for agriculture in Australia. The present facilities are described, and then set against estimates of present and future needs. Constructive proposals are made as to how these needs can best be met by agricultural…

  1. Australia's Regional Youth Exodus.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gabriel, M.

    2002-01-01

    Examines media coverage of youth outmigration from Tasmania in the context of Australia's regional crisis. Focuses on how young people are constructed by others and positioned in others' visions of their rural home towns. Discusses two recurring narratives: strategies to keep youth at home, and preoccupation with the "best and brightest" young…

  2. English in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jernudd, Bjorn H.

    This paper provides a review of "English Transported: Essays on Australasian English," edited by W. S. Ramson. The book is a collection of articles on the various types of English spoken mainly in Australia and New Zealand. Articles discuss such varieties as nineteenth and twentieth century Australian English, New Zealand English, Pidgin English…

  3. Use of Continuous Monitors and Autosamplers to Predict Unmeasured Water-Quality Constituents in Tributaries of the Tualatin River, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, Chauncey W.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2010-01-01

    Management of water quality in streams of the United States is becoming increasingly complex as regulators seek to control aquatic pollution and ecological problems through Total Maximum Daily Load programs that target reductions in the concentrations of certain constituents. Sediment, nutrients, and bacteria, for example, are constituents that regulators target for reduction nationally and in the Tualatin River basin, Oregon. These constituents require laboratory analysis of discrete samples for definitive determinations of concentrations in streams. Recent technological advances in the nearly continuous, in situ monitoring of related water-quality parameters has fostered the use of these parameters as surrogates for the labor intensive, laboratory-analyzed constituents. Although these correlative techniques have been successful in large rivers, it was unclear whether they could be applied successfully in tributaries of the Tualatin River, primarily because these streams tend to be small, have rapid hydrologic response to rainfall and high streamflow variability, and may contain unique sources of sediment, nutrients, and bacteria. This report evaluates the feasibility of developing correlative regression models for predicting dependent variables (concentrations of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and Escherichia coli bacteria) in two Tualatin River basin streams: one draining highly urbanized land (Fanno Creek near Durham, Oregon) and one draining rural agricultural land (Dairy Creek at Highway 8 near Hillsboro, Oregon), during 2002-04. An important difference between these two streams is their response to storm runoff; Fanno Creek has a relatively rapid response due to extensive upstream impervious areas and Dairy Creek has a relatively slow response because of the large amount of undeveloped upstream land. Four other stream sites also were evaluated, but in less detail. Potential explanatory variables included continuously monitored streamflow

  4. Australia: a full house.

    PubMed

    Short, R

    1994-01-01

    Australia had a population of 17.6 million in 1991. In 1992, Australia's population grew at the rate of 1.06%, 0.8% due to natural increase and 0.26% from immigration. The recent Australian Bureau of Statistics Report estimates that it will grow to 18.9 million by the end of the century and 23.1 million by 2025, assuming fertility remains at current levels and net migration stabilizes at 70,000 per annum from the year 2000. The World Bank estimates that Australia's population will stabilize at 25 million some time in the future. Since Australia's politicians and economists fail to understand that the country already has a large enough population, no national population policy has been declared. The Department of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs, responsible for all population issues, gives no thought to the long-term environmental consequences of the rapidly growing population and determines the annual migrant intake simply on the basis of the nation's economic needs, demands from new immigrants for admission of their next of kin, and humanitarian considerations with regard to refugees. Population growth in Australia needs to be checked as soon as possible. Reducing the annual migrant intake to below 50,000, Australia could achieve a stable population of approximately 23 million by 2040; the annual intake of 150,000 immigrants will grow the population to 37 million. The total fertility rate (TFR) has been below replacement level since 1976, but the population's skewed age distribution will cause it to continue to grow through natural increase at the current rate of approximately 0.8% per year for some time to come. Improving educational opportunities for women and ensuring that all have ready access to modern contraception could help produce a further decline in TFR. Moreover, education about contraception must be made a part of every school curriculum. Steps taken now may avert any future flood of millions of ecological refugees from Southeast Asia, particularly

  5. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  6. Clinical Evaluation of an Automated Artificial Pancreas Using Zone-Model Predictive Control and Health Monitoring System

    PubMed Central

    Harvey, Rebecca A.; Dassau, Eyal; Bevier, Wendy C.; Seborg, Dale E.; Jovanovič, Lois; Doyle, Francis J.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background: This study was performed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a fully automated artificial pancreas using zone-model predictive control (zone-MPC) with the health monitoring system (HMS) during unannounced meals and overnight and exercise periods. Subjects and Methods: A fully automated closed-loop artificial pancreas was evaluated in 12 subjects (eight women, four men) with type 1 diabetes (mean±SD age, 49.4±10.4 years; diabetes duration, 32.7±16.0 years; glycosylated hemoglobin, 7.3±1.2%). The zone-MPC controller used an a priori model that was initialized using the subject's total daily insulin. The controller was designed to keep glucose levels between 80 and 140 mg/dL. A hypoglycemia prediction algorithm, a module of the HMS, was used in conjunction with the zone controller to alert the user to consume carbohydrates if the glucose level was predicted to fall below 70 mg/dL in the next 15 min. Results: The average time spent in the 70–180 mg/dL range, measured by the YSI glucose and lactate analyzer (Yellow Springs Instruments, Yellow Springs, OH), was 80% for the entire session, 92% overnight from 12 a.m. to 7 a.m., and 69% and 61% for the 5-h period after dinner and breakfast, respectively. The time spent <60 mg/dL for the entire session by YSI was 0%, with no safety events. The HMS sent appropriate warnings to prevent hypoglycemia via short and multimedia message services, at an average of 3.8 treatments per subject. Conclusions: The combination of the zone-MPC controller and the HMS hypoglycemia prevention algorithm was able to safely regulate glucose in a tight range with no adverse events despite the challenges of unannounced meals and moderate exercise. PMID:24471561

  7. Predicting the timing of first generation egg hatch for the pest redlegged earth mite Halotydeus destructor (Acari: Penthaleidae).

    PubMed

    McDonald, Garrick; Umina, Paul A; Macfadyen, Sarina; Mangano, Peter; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2015-03-01

    Integrated pest management in Australian winter grain crops is challenging, partly because the timing and severity of pest outbreaks cannot currently be predicted, and this often results in prophylactic applications of broad spectrum pesticides. We developed a simple model to predict the median emergence in autumn of pest populations of the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor, a major field crop and pasture pest in southern Australia. Previous data and observations suggest that rainfall and temperature are critical for post-diapause egg hatch. We evaluated seven models that combined rainfall and temperature thresholds derived using three approaches against previously recorded hatch dates and 2013 field records. The performance of the models varied between Western Australia and south-eastern Australian States. In Western Australia, the key attributes of the best fitting model were more than 5 mm rain followed by mean day temperatures of below 20.5 °C for 10 days. In south-eastern Australia, the most effective model involved a temperature threshold reduced to 16 °C. These regional differences may reflect adaptation of H. destructor in south-eastern Australia to varied and uncertain temperature and rainfall regimes of late summer and autumn, relative to the hot and dry Mediterranean-type climate in Western Australia. Field sampling in 2013 revealed a spread of early hatch dates in isolated patches of habitat, ahead of predicted paddock scale hatchings. These regional models should assist in monitoring and subsequent management of H. destructor at the paddock scale.

  8. Predicting High Frequency Wind-wave Generated Seismic Noise: a Way to Remotely Monitor Sea-ice Mechanical State.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gimbert, F.; Tsai, V. C.

    2014-12-01

    It is commonly accepted that ambient ground motion within the 1 s to 10 s period range (including the so-called secondary microseism peak) is caused by ocean wave interactions that induce pressure fluctuations at the ocean floor through acoustic waves. In recent years, numerical ocean wave models have successfully predicted the maximum amplitude of the secondary microseism peak in the 4 s to 8 s range, where seismic energy is mainly caused by the interaction of ocean swells of typically 8 s to 16 s of periods, i.e. 100-400 m wavelengths, that travel in opposite directions as they are generated by distant storms, by single but fast moving storms or by coastal reflections. In contrast, little attention has been devoted to the contribution of local wind generated seas characterized by shorter period waves (1 s to 3 s ocean waves, i.e. 1-10 m wavelengths) in the generation of higher frequency seismic noise in coastal regions. While this noise content is becoming increasingly used by seismologists, for example for high resolution ground imaging from dense arrays, its absolute amplitude and frequency dependence has not yet been consistently predicted: this is the purpose of this talk. We present a simple analytical approach that allows the prediction of ambient seismic noise recorded on land in the 0.5 s to 3 s range from knowledge of the local wind field operating on the surrounding ocean. Ocean waves and their interactions are accounted for within hundreds of kilometers from coastal seismic stations, and a realistic ground structure is considered in the generation and propagation of Rayleigh waves. We show that the amplitude and frequency scaling of hourly noise spectra can be systematically predicted, and thus suggest that seismic stations can complement in-situ measurements in inferring wind sea properties in coastal regions. Furthermore, we use our new approach to demonstrate that seismic stations deployed on land can be used to remotely study ocean waves in sea ice

  9. Otosclerosis in South Australia.

    PubMed

    Gristwood, R E; Venables, W N

    1984-08-01

    In this paper we report on the prevalence of clinical otosclerosis in South Australia, and discuss some aspects of its distribution and character. Our data comes from an exhaustive search for stapedectomy patients in a relatively closed population within a fixed time span, and hence our figures represent a lower limit for the true prevalence and not an unbiased estimate. Nevertheless, even with no allowance for this downward bias it would seem that South Australia has a high prevalence of otosclerosis by world standards, particularly of obliterative cases. The highest prevalence is about 5 per 1 000 of population for men and 10 per 1 000 of population for women, which occurs in the 50-59 year old age group. In common with many other studies, our data shows a prevalence for females approximately twice that for males, over most age groups. PMID:6333941

  10. Geothermal development in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.L.; Creelman, R.A.; Buckingham, N.W.; Harrington, H.J. |

    1995-03-01

    In Australia, natural hot springs and hot artesian bores have been developed for recreational and therapeutic purposes. A district heating system at Portland, in the Otway Basin of western Victoria, has provided uninterrupted service for 12 Sears without significant problems, is servicing a building area of 18 990 m{sup 2}, and has prospects of expansion to manufacturing uses. A geothermal well has provided hot water for paper manufacture at Traralgon, in the Gippsland Basin of eastern Victoria. Power production from hot water aquifers was tested at Mulka in South Australia, and is undergoing a four-year production trial at Birdsville in Queensland. An important Hot Dry Rock resource has been confirmed in the Cooper Basin. It has been proposed to build an HDR experimental facility to test power production from deep conductive resources in the Sydney Basin near Muswellbrook.

  11. Optimization of Early Response Monitoring and Prediction of Cancer Antiangiogenesis Therapy via Noninvasive PET Molecular Imaging Strategies of Multifactorial Bioparameters

    PubMed Central

    Bao, Xiao; Wang, Ming-Wei; Luo, Jian-Min; Wang, Si-Yang; Zhang, Yong-Ping; Zhang, Ying-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Antiangiogenesis therapy (AAT) has provided substantial benefits regarding improved outcomes and survival for suitable patients in clinical settings. Therefore, the early definition of therapeutic effects is urgently needed to guide cancer AAT. We aimed to optimize the early response monitoring and prediction of AAT efficacy, as indicated by the multi-targeted anti-angiogenic drug sunitinib in U87MG tumors, using noninvasive positron emission computed tomography (PET) molecular imaging strategies of multifactorial bioparameters. Methods: U87MG tumor mice were treated via intragastric injections of sunitinib (80 mg/kg) or vehicle for 7 consecutive days. Longitudinal MicroPET/CT scans with 18F-FDG, 18F-FMISO, 18F-ML-10 and 18F-Alfatide II were acquired to quantitatively measure metabolism, hypoxia, apoptosis and angiogenesis on days 0, 1, 3, 7 and 13 following therapy initiation. Tumor tissues from a dedicated group of mice were collected for immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of key biomarkers (Glut-1, CA-IX, TUNEL, ανβ3 and CD31) at the time points of PET imaging. The tumor sizes and mouse weights were measured throughout the study. The tumor uptake (ID%/gmax), the ratios of the tumor/muscle (T/M) for each probe, and the tumor growth ratios (TGR) were calculated and used for statistical analyses of the differences and correlations. Results: Sunitinib successfully inhibited U87MG tumor growth with significant differences in the tumor size from day 9 after sunitinib treatment compared with the control group (P < 0.01). The uptakes of 18F-FMISO (reduced hypoxia), 18F-ML-10 (increased apoptosis) and 18F-Alfatide II (decreased angiogenesis) in the tumor lesions significantly changed during the early stage (days 1 to 3) of sunitinib treatment; however, the uptake of 18F-FDG (increased glucose metabolism) was significantly different during the late stage. The PET imaging data of each probe were all confirmed via ex vivo IHC of the relevant biomarkers

  12. Optimization of Early Response Monitoring and Prediction of Cancer Antiangiogenesis Therapy via Noninvasive PET Molecular Imaging Strategies of Multifactorial Bioparameters

    PubMed Central

    Bao, Xiao; Wang, Ming-Wei; Luo, Jian-Min; Wang, Si-Yang; Zhang, Yong-Ping; Zhang, Ying-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Antiangiogenesis therapy (AAT) has provided substantial benefits regarding improved outcomes and survival for suitable patients in clinical settings. Therefore, the early definition of therapeutic effects is urgently needed to guide cancer AAT. We aimed to optimize the early response monitoring and prediction of AAT efficacy, as indicated by the multi-targeted anti-angiogenic drug sunitinib in U87MG tumors, using noninvasive positron emission computed tomography (PET) molecular imaging strategies of multifactorial bioparameters. Methods: U87MG tumor mice were treated via intragastric injections of sunitinib (80 mg/kg) or vehicle for 7 consecutive days. Longitudinal MicroPET/CT scans with 18F-FDG, 18F-FMISO, 18F-ML-10 and 18F-Alfatide II were acquired to quantitatively measure metabolism, hypoxia, apoptosis and angiogenesis on days 0, 1, 3, 7 and 13 following therapy initiation. Tumor tissues from a dedicated group of mice were collected for immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of key biomarkers (Glut-1, CA-IX, TUNEL, ανβ3 and CD31) at the time points of PET imaging. The tumor sizes and mouse weights were measured throughout the study. The tumor uptake (ID%/gmax), the ratios of the tumor/muscle (T/M) for each probe, and the tumor growth ratios (TGR) were calculated and used for statistical analyses of the differences and correlations. Results: Sunitinib successfully inhibited U87MG tumor growth with significant differences in the tumor size from day 9 after sunitinib treatment compared with the control group (P < 0.01). The uptakes of 18F-FMISO (reduced hypoxia), 18F-ML-10 (increased apoptosis) and 18F-Alfatide II (decreased angiogenesis) in the tumor lesions significantly changed during the early stage (days 1 to 3) of sunitinib treatment; however, the uptake of 18F-FDG (increased glucose metabolism) was significantly different during the late stage. The PET imaging data of each probe were all confirmed via ex vivo IHC of the relevant biomarkers

  13. Melville Island, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    Melville Island, just off the coast of Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia (11.5S, 131.0E) is a sparsely inhabited tropical island with heavy woodland concentrations. The widespread and prominant smoke plumes were most likely set to renew pasture under open canopy woodland. Soil erosion is almost non- existant as can be seen by the clear and clean river flow. The offshore sediments are coastal current borne deposits from King Sound to the west.

  14. Neurodegeneration severity can be predicted from early microglia alterations monitored in vivo in a mouse model of chronic glaucoma

    PubMed Central

    Bosco, Alejandra; Romero, Cesar O.; Breen, Kevin T.; Chagovetz, Alexis A.; Steele, Michael R.; Ambati, Balamurali K.; Vetter, Monica L.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Microglia serve key homeostatic roles, and respond to neuronal perturbation and decline with a high spatiotemporal resolution. The course of all chronic CNS pathologies is thus paralleled by local microgliosis and microglia activation, which begin at early stages of the disease. However, the possibility of using live monitoring of microglia during early disease progression to predict the severity of neurodegeneration has not been explored. Because the retina allows live tracking of fluorescent microglia in their intact niche, here we investigated their early changes in relation to later optic nerve neurodegeneration. To achieve this, we used the DBA/2J mouse model of inherited glaucoma, which develops progressive retinal ganglion cell degeneration of variable severity during aging, and represents a useful model to study pathogenic mechanisms of retinal ganglion cell decline that are similar to those in human glaucoma. We imaged CX3CR1+/GFP microglial cells in vivo at ages ranging from 1 to 5 months by confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (cSLO) and quantified cell density and morphological activation. We detected early microgliosis at the optic nerve head (ONH), where axonopathy first manifests, and could track attenuation of this microgliosis induced by minocycline. We also observed heterogeneous and dynamic patterns of early microglia activation in the retina. When the same animals were aged and analyzed for the severity of optic nerve pathology at 10 months of age, we found a strong correlation with the levels of ONH microgliosis at 3 to 4 months. Our findings indicate that live imaging and monitoring the time course and levels of early retinal microgliosis and microglia activation in glaucoma could serve as indicators of future neurodegeneration severity. PMID:25755083

  15. Dynamic monitoring of beating periodicity of stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes as a predictive tool for preclinical safety assessment

    PubMed Central

    Abassi, Yama A; Xi, Biao; Li, Nan; Ouyang, Wei; Seiler, Alexander; Watzele, Manfred; Kettenhofen, Ralf; Bohlen, Heribert; Ehlich, Andreas; Kolossov, Eugen; Wang, Xiaobo; Xu, Xiao

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Cardiac toxicity is a major concern in drug development and it is imperative that clinical candidates are thoroughly tested for adverse effects earlier in the drug discovery process. In this report, we investigate the utility of an impedance-based microelectronic detection system in conjunction with mouse embryonic stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes for assessment of compound risk in the drug discovery process. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH Beating of cardiomyocytes was measured by a recently developed microelectronic-based system using impedance readouts. We used mouse stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes to obtain dose-response profiles for over 60 compounds, including ion channel modulators, chronotropic/ionotropic agents, hERG trafficking inhibitors and drugs known to induce Torsades de Pointes arrhythmias. KEY RESULTS This system sensitively and quantitatively detected effects of modulators of cardiac function, including some compounds missed by electrophysiology. Pro-arrhythmic compounds produced characteristic profiles reflecting arrhythmia, which can be used for identification of other pro-arrhythmic compounds. The time series data can be used to identify compounds that induce arrhythmia by complex mechanisms such as inhibition of hERG channels trafficking. Furthermore, the time resolution allows for assessment of compounds that simultaneously affect both beating and viability of cardiomyocytes. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Microelectronic monitoring of stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte beating provides a high throughput, quantitative and predictive assay system that can be used for assessment of cardiac liability earlier in the drug discovery process. The convergence of stem cell technology with microelectronic monitoring should facilitate cardiac safety assessment. PMID:21838757

  16. Methods Developed by the Tools for Engine Diagnostics Task to Monitor and Predict Rotor Damage in Real Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baaklini, George Y.; Smith, Kevin; Raulerson, David; Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.; Sawicki, Jerzy T.; Brasche, Lisa

    2003-01-01

    Tools for Engine Diagnostics is a major task in the Propulsion System Health Management area of the Single Aircraft Accident Prevention project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program. The major goal of the Aviation Safety Program is to reduce fatal aircraft accidents by 80 percent within 10 years and by 90 percent within 25 years. The goal of the Propulsion System Health Management area is to eliminate propulsion system malfunctions as a primary or contributing factor to the cause of aircraft accidents. The purpose of Tools for Engine Diagnostics, a 2-yr-old task, is to establish and improve tools for engine diagnostics and prognostics that measure the deformation and damage of rotating engine components at the ground level and that perform intermittent or continuous monitoring on the engine wing. In this work, nondestructive-evaluation- (NDE-) based technology is combined with model-dependent disk spin experimental simulation systems, like finite element modeling (FEM) and modal norms, to monitor and predict rotor damage in real time. Fracture mechanics time-dependent fatigue crack growth and damage-mechanics-based life estimation are being developed, and their potential use investigated. In addition, wireless eddy current and advanced acoustics are being developed for on-wing and just-in-time NDE engine inspection to provide deeper access and higher sensitivity to extend on-wing capabilities and improve inspection readiness. In the long run, these methods could establish a base for prognostic sensing while an engine is running, without any overt actions, like inspections. This damage-detection strategy includes experimentally acquired vibration-, eddy-current- and capacitance-based displacement measurements and analytically computed FEM-, modal norms-, and conventional rotordynamics-based models of well-defined damages and critical mass imbalances in rotating disks and rotors.

  17. Co-evolution of Plant Biodiversity and Pedogeochemistry in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bui, E. N.; Gonzalez-Orozco, C.; Miller, J.

    2013-12-01

    With the geostatistical package geoR (Ribeiro and Diggle 2001), we used the National Geochemical Survey of Australia's 1315 reported total elemental concentrations for aluminium (Al), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sodium (Na), phosphorus (P), all in mg kg-1, for the fine earth (<2 mm) fraction as determined by X-ray fluorescence, and pH1:5 (soil:water) and EC1:5 (soil:water) (de Caritat and Cooper 2011) to predict pedogeochemistry at 127,259 sites, representing presence data for 1020 Acacia species across Australia. Species in the genus Acacia are widely distributed across Australia. Here we show that strong associations exist between plant communities, individual species, and pedogeochemistry. Acacia communities in southern Australia are associated with high pH and high electrical conductivity, high total Mg on greenstone-derived soils, and high total Ca and Mg concentrations on calcareous and saline soils. Many species that tolerate extreme pedogeochemical conditions are range restricted. Both Acacia distribution and pedogeochemistry reflect climatic conditions. Species with strong correlation to local edaphic conditions present a higher potential for loss resulting from climate change, due to abiotic constraints. References de Caritat, P. & Cooper, M. (2011). National Geochemical Survey of Australia: The Geochemical Atlas of Australia. Geoscience Australia, Record 2011/20 (2 Volumes), 557 pp. Ribeiro, P.J. & Diggle, P.J. (2001). geoR: A package for geostatistical analysis. R-News Vol 1, No 2. Available at: http://cran.r-project.org/.

  18. The 2011 marine heat wave in Cockburn Sound, southwest Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rose, T. H.; Smale, D. A.; Botting, G.

    2012-07-01

    Over 2000 km of Western Australian coastline experienced a significant marine heat wave in February and March 2011. Seawater temperature anomalies of +2-4 °C were recorded at a number of locations, and satellite-derived SSTs (sea surface temperatures) were the highest on record. Here, we present seawater temperatures from southwestern Australia and describe, in detail, the marine climatology of Cockburn Sound, a large, multiple-use coastal embayment. We compared temperature and dissolved oxygen levels in 2011 with data from routine monitoring conducted from 2002-2010. A significant warming event, 2-4 °C in magnitude, persisted for > 8 weeks, and seawater temperatures at 10 to 20 m depth were significantly higher than those recorded in the previous 9 yr. Dissolved oxygen levels were depressed at most monitoring sites, being ~ 2 mg l-1 lower than usual in early March 2011. Ecological responses to short-term extreme events are poorly understood, but evidence from elsewhere along the Western Australian coastline suggests that the heat wave was associated with high rates of coral bleaching; fish, invertebrate and macroalgae mortalities; and algal blooms. However, there is a paucity of historical information on ecologically-sensitive habitats and taxa in Cockburn Sound, so that formal examinations of biological responses to the heat wave were not possible. The 2011 heat wave provided insights into conditions that may become more prevalent in Cockburn Sound, and elsewhere, if the intensity and frequency of short-term extreme events increases as predicted.

  19. The 2011 marine heat wave off southwest Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rose, T. H.; Smale, D. A.; Botting, G.

    2012-04-01

    Over 2000 km of Western Australian coastline experienced a significant marine heat wave in February and March 2011. Seawater temperature anomalies of +2-4 °C were recorded at a number of locations and satellite-derived SSTs were the highest on record. Here, we present seawater temperatures from southwestern Australia and describe, in detail, the marine climatology of Cockburn Sound; a large, multiple-use coastal embayment. We compared temperature and dissolved oxygen levels in 2011 with data from routine monitoring conducted from 2002-2010. A significant warming event, 2-4 °C in magnitude, persisted for >8 weeks, and seawater temperatures at 10 to 20 m depth were significantly higher than those recorded in the previous 9 yr. Dissolved oxygen levels were depressed at most monitoring sites, being ~2 mg l-1 lower than usual in early March 2011. Ecological responses to short-term extreme events are poorly understood, but evidence from elsewhere along the Western Australian coastline suggests that the heat wave was associated with high rates of coral bleaching, fish, invertebrate and macroalgae mortalities, and algal blooms. However, more ecological information from Cockburn Sound and other multiple-use embayments is urgently needed. The 2011 heat wave provided insights into conditions that may become more prevalent in Cockburn Sound, and elsewhere, if the intensity and frequency of short-term extreme events increases as predicted.

  20. Development of a decision support system for crop disease monitoring, surveillance and prediction in Bomet county, Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otieno, O. M.

    2015-12-01

    The study proposes to use Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing techniques to spatially model Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) disease in maize growing areas in Kenya. Results from this work will be used for prediction, monitoring and to guide intervention on MLN. This will minimize maize yield losses resulting from MLN infestation and thus safeguard the livelihoods of maize farmers in Kenya. MLN was first reported in Kenya in September 2011 in Bomet county. It then subsequently spread to other parts in Kenya. Maize crops are susceptible to MLN at all growth stages. Once infected the only option left for the farmers is to burn their maize plantations. Infection rate and damage is very high affecting yields and sometimes causing complete loss of maize yield.The modelling exercise will cover the period prior to and after the incidence of MLN. Specifically, the analysis will integrate spatio-temporal information on maize phenology and field surveys with the intention of delineating the extent of MLN infestation and the degree of damage as a result of MLN. Additionally, the task will identify potential predisposing factors leading to MLN resurgence and spread and to predict potential areas where MLN is likely to spread and to estimate the potential impact of MLN on the farm holders. The area of study for this task will be Bomet County. Historical and current environmental and spatial indicators including temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation health and crop cover will be fed into a model in order to determine the main factors that aide the occurrence and the spread of MLN. Multi-spectral image processing will be used to produce indices to study maize crop health whilst image classification techniques will be used to identify crop cover clusters by differentiating the variations in spectral signatures in the area of study and hence distinguish infected, unaffected maize crops and other crop cover classes. Variables from these indicators will then be

  1. AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO ADDRESSING NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE AIR QUALITY CONCERNS: THE INTEGRATION OF GIS, URBAN MORPHOLOGY, PREDICTIVE METEOROLOGY, AND AIR QUALITY MONITORING TOOLS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes a project that combines the capabilities of urban geography, raster-based GIS, predictive meteorological and air pollutant diffusion modeling, to support a neighborhood-scale air quality monitoring pilot study under the U.S. EPA EMPACT Program. The study ha...

  2. The Longitudinal Consistency of Mother-Child Reporting Discrepancies of Parental Monitoring and Their Ability to Predict Child Delinquent Behaviors Two Years Later

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Los Reyes, Andres; Goodman, Kimberly L.; Kliewer, Wendy; Reid-Quinones, Kathryn

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the longitudinal consistency of mother-child reporting discrepancies of parental monitoring and whether these discrepancies predict children's delinquent behaviors 2 years later. Participants included 335 mother/female-caregiver and child (46% boys, greater than 90% African American; age range 9-16 years [M = 12.11, SD = 1.60])…

  3. Electromagnetic induction in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lilley, F. E. M.

    Electromagnetic induction at the terrestrial surface is a general and ubiquitous process. This note, which covers research on the subject in Australia, reflects the writer's own interest and refers particularly to induction by natural source fields in the period range of 1 minute to 1 day.Such source fields arise external to Earth, in the ionosphere and beyond, in the magnetosphere. The process of electromagnetic induction by these fields involves the flow through Earth of tens of thousands of amperes, over scale lengths of thousands of kilometers.

  4. Australia: The Dictation Test Redux?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNamara, Tim

    2009-01-01

    In its late colonial history and early years as an independent nation, Australia practised a policy of ruthless exclusion of immigrants on the basis of race by means of a language test: the notorious Dictation Test. In the 50 years following World War II, Australia adopted policies encouraging immigration with bipartisan political support.…

  5. Australia's marine virtual laboratory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Proctor, Roger; Gillibrand, Philip; Oke, Peter; Rosebrock, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In all modelling studies of realistic scenarios, a researcher has to go through a number of steps to set up a model in order to produce a model simulation of value. The steps are generally the same, independent of the modelling system chosen. These steps include determining the time and space scales and processes of the required simulation; obtaining data for the initial set up and for input during the simulation time; obtaining observation data for validation or data assimilation; implementing scripts to run the simulation(s); and running utilities or custom-built software to extract results. These steps are time consuming and resource hungry, and have to be done every time irrespective of the simulation - the more complex the processes, the more effort is required to set up the simulation. The Australian Marine Virtual Laboratory (MARVL) is a new development in modelling frameworks for researchers in Australia. MARVL uses the TRIKE framework, a java-based control system developed by CSIRO that allows a non-specialist user configure and run a model, to automate many of the modelling preparation steps needed to bring the researcher faster to the stage of simulation and analysis. The tool is seen as enhancing the efficiency of researchers and marine managers, and is being considered as an educational aid in teaching. In MARVL we are developing a web-based open source application which provides a number of model choices and provides search and recovery of relevant observations, allowing researchers to: a) efficiently configure a range of different community ocean and wave models for any region, for any historical time period, with model specifications of their choice, through a user-friendly web application, b) access data sets to force a model and nest a model into, c) discover and assemble ocean observations from the Australian Ocean Data Network (AODN, http://portal.aodn.org.au/webportal/) in a format that is suitable for model evaluation or data assimilation, and

  6. Novel approaches to effects-based monitoring: 21st century tools for bio-effects prediction and surveillance

    EPA Science Inventory

    Effects-based monitoring (EBM) has been employed as a complement to chemical monitoring to help address knowledge gaps between chemical occurrence and biological effects. We have piloted several pathway-based approaches to EBM, that utilize modern bioinformatic and high throughpu...

  7. Migrant women in Australia.

    PubMed

    Misztal, B A

    1991-01-01

    The author compares the status of non-English speaking (NES) migrant women with that of their native-born counterparts in Australia. She concludes that "Australian born women and migrant women have certain experiences in common; low economic position, being the target of discriminatory practices in education and in work, and their overall marginality in the power structure. In addition their jobs have much in common: for all women are disadvantaged compared with men in terms of earnings, occupational status, and job mobility. However,...NES migrant women tend to be employed in much lower-level, lower-status, and lower-paying occupations than Australian born women.... They face circumstances unique to their ethnic groups which they share with the men of their ethnic groups. Migrant women, even more than indigenous working class women see the family as a site of solidarity and supportive alliance against a hostile or new environment...."

  8. MISR Views Northern Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    MISR images of tropical northern Australia acquired on June 1, 2000 (Terra orbit 2413) during the long dry season. Left: color composite of vertical (nadir) camera blue, green, and red band data. Right: multi-angle composite of red band data only from the cameras viewing 60 degrees aft, 60 degrees forward, and nadir. Color and contrast have been enhanced to accentuate subtle details. In the left image, color variations indicate how different parts of the scene reflect light differently at blue, green, and red wavelengths; in the right image color variations show how these same scene elements reflect light differently at different angles of view. Water appears in blue shades in the right image, for example, because glitter makes the water look brighter at the aft camera's view angle. The prominent inland water body is Lake Argyle, the largest human-made lake in Australia, which supplies water for the Ord River Irrigation Area and the town of Kununurra (pop. 6500) just to the north. At the top is the southern edge of Joseph Bonaparte Gulf; the major inlet at the left is Cambridge Gulf, the location of the town of Wyndham (pop. 850), the port for this region. This area is sparsely populated, and is known for its remote, spectacular mountains and gorges. Visible along much of the coastline are intertidal mudflats of mangroves and low shrubs; to the south the terrain is covered by open woodland merging into open grassland in the lower half of the pictures.

    MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.

  9. Australia's Great Barrier Reef

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2001-01-01

    The Great Barrier Reef extends for 2,000 kilometers along the northeastern coast of Australia. It is not a single reef, but a vast maze of reefs, passages, and coral cays (islands that are part of the reef). This nadir true-color image was acquired by the MISR instrument on August 26, 2000 (Terra orbit 3679), and shows part of the southern portion of the reef adjacent to the central Queensland coast. The width of the MISR swath is approximately 380 kilometers, with the reef clearly visible up to approximately 200 kilometers from the coast. It may be difficult to see the myriad details in the browse image, but if you retrieve the higher resolution version, a zoomed display reveals the spectacular structure of the many reefs.

    The more northerly coastal area in this image shows the vast extent of sugar cane cultivation, this being the largest sugar producing area in Australia, centered on the city of Mackay. Other industries in the area include coal, cattle, dairying, timber, grain, seafood, and fruit. The large island off the most northerly part of the coast visible in this image is Whitsunday Island, with smaller islands and reefs extending southeast, parallel to the coast. These include some of the better known resort islands such as Hayman, Lindeman, Hamilton, and Brampton Islands.

    Further south, just inland of the small semicircular bay near the right of the image, is Rockhampton, the largest city along the central Queensland coast, and the regional center for much of central Queensland. Rockhampton is just north of the Tropic of Capricorn. Its hinterland is a rich pastoral, agricultural, and mining region.

    MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.

  10. Nighttime assaults: using a national emergency department monitoring system to predict occurrence, target prevention and plan services

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Emergency department (ED) data have the potential to provide critical intelligence on when violence is most likely to occur and the characteristics of those who suffer the greatest health impacts. We use a national experimental ED monitoring system to examine how it could target violence prevention interventions towards at risk communities and optimise acute responses to calendar, holiday and other celebration-related changes in nighttime assaults. Methods A cross-sectional examination of nighttime assault presentations (6.01 pm to 6.00 am; n = 330,172) over a three-year period (31st March 2008 to 30th March 2011) to English EDs analysing changes by weekday, month, holidays, major sporting events, and demographics of those presenting. Results Males are at greater risk of assault presentation (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.14, 95% confidence intervals [CIs] 3.11-3.16; P < 0.001); with male:female ratios increasing on more violent nights. Risks peak at age 18 years. Deprived individuals have greater risks of presenting across all ages (AOR 3.87, 95% CIs 3.82-3.92; P < 0.001). Proportions of assaults from deprived communities increase midweek. Female presentations in affluent areas peak aged 20 years. By age 13, females from deprived communities exceed this peak. Presentations peak on Friday and Saturday nights and the eves of public holidays; the largest peak is on New Year’s Eve. Assaults increase over summer with a nadir in January. Impacts of annual celebrations without holidays vary. Some (Halloween, Guy Fawkes and St Patrick’s nights) see increased assaults while others (St George’s and Valentine’s Day nights) do not. Home nation World Cup football matches are associated with nearly a three times increase in midweek assault presentation. Other football and rugby events examined show no impact. The 2008 Olympics saw assaults fall. The overall calendar model strongly predicts observed presentations (R2 = 0.918; P < 0

  11. Chemometrics and in-line near infrared spectroscopic monitoring of a biopharmaceutical Chinese hamster ovary cell culture: prediction of multiple cultivation variables.

    PubMed

    Clavaud, Matthieu; Roggo, Yves; Von Daeniken, Ralph; Liebler, André; Schwabe, Jan-Oliver

    2013-07-15

    In the present study near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used to monitor the cultivation of mammalian Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells producing a monoclonal antibody in a fed-batch cell culture process. A temperature shift was applied during the cultivation. The cells were incubated at 37 °C and 33 °C. The Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) multiplex process analyzer spectroscopy was investigated to monitor cultivation variables of the CHO cell culture from 10 independent batches using two channels of the FT-NIR. The measurements were performed on production scale bioreactors of 12,500 L. The cell cultures were analyzed with the spectrometer coupled to a transflection sterilizable fiber optic probe inserted into the bioreactors. Multivariate data analysis (MVDA) employing unsupervised principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares regression methods (PLS) were applied. PCA demonstrated that 96% of the observed variability was explained by the process trajectory and the inter-batch variability. PCA was found to be a significant tool in identifying batch homogeneity between lots and in detecting abnormal fermentation runs. Seven different cell culture parameters such as osmolality, glucose concentration, product titer, packed cell volume (PCV), integrated viable packed cell volume (ivPCV), viable cell density (VCD), and integrated viable cell count (iVCC) were monitored inline and predicted by NIR. NIR spectra and reference analytics data were computed using control charts to evaluate the monitoring abilities. Control charts of each media component were under control by NIR spectroscopy. The PLS calibration plots offered accurate predictive capabilities for each media. This paper underlines the capability for inline prediction of multiple cultivation variables during bioprocess monitoring.

  12. Asian student migration to Australia.

    PubMed

    Shu, J; Hawthorne, L

    1996-01-01

    "This paper presents an overview of Asian student migration to Australia, together with an analysis of political and educational aspects of the overseas student programme. It focuses on some significant consequences of this flow for Australia. The characteristics of key student groups are contrasted to provide some perspective of the diversity of historical and cultural backgrounds, with the source countries of Malaysia, Indonesia and PRC [China] selected as case studies. Since the issue of PRC students in Australia has attracted considerable public attention and policy consideration, particular focus is placed on their experience." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

  13. Algae Reefs in Shark Bay, Western Australia, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Numerous algae reefs are seen in Shark Bay, Western Australia, Australia (26.0S, 113.5E) especially in the southern portions of the bay. The south end is more saline because tidal flow in and out of the bay is restricted by sediment deposited at the north and central end of the bay opposite the mouth of the Wooramel River. This extremely arid region produces little sediment runoff so that the waters are very clear, saline and rich in algae.

  14. Adolescent suicide in Australia: rates, risk and resilience.

    PubMed

    McNamara, Patricia M

    2013-07-01

    Adolescent suicide rates in Australia have fallen significantly during recent years. The incidence, however, clearly remains a serious concern for young people, parents, professionals and policy makers. Some groups of Australian youth appear to be at heightened risk. Adolescents within the welfare system, indigenous, rural and refugee youth, along with same sex attracted young people often need very careful monitoring and support. Young men continue to take their lives more frequently than young women. Prevention programmes in Australia aim to develop resilience in young people, families and communities that can serve as protection against self harm and suicide. The improvement of mental health literacy, a fostering of adolescent self-efficacy and better access to early intervention strategies are currently privileged in national and state policies related to young people in Australia. More work is needed, however, to achieve a well integrated mental health framework capable of effectively addressing adolescent suicide prevention into the twenty-first century.

  15. Adolescent suicide in Australia: rates, risk and resilience.

    PubMed

    McNamara, Patricia M

    2013-07-01

    Adolescent suicide rates in Australia have fallen significantly during recent years. The incidence, however, clearly remains a serious concern for young people, parents, professionals and policy makers. Some groups of Australian youth appear to be at heightened risk. Adolescents within the welfare system, indigenous, rural and refugee youth, along with same sex attracted young people often need very careful monitoring and support. Young men continue to take their lives more frequently than young women. Prevention programmes in Australia aim to develop resilience in young people, families and communities that can serve as protection against self harm and suicide. The improvement of mental health literacy, a fostering of adolescent self-efficacy and better access to early intervention strategies are currently privileged in national and state policies related to young people in Australia. More work is needed, however, to achieve a well integrated mental health framework capable of effectively addressing adolescent suicide prevention into the twenty-first century. PMID:23118313

  16. Atmospheric transport modelling of time resolved 133Xe emissions from the isotope production facility ANSTO, Australia.

    PubMed

    Schöppner, M; Plastino, W; Hermanspahn, N; Hoffmann, E; Kalinowski, M; Orr, B; Tinker, R

    2013-12-01

    The verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) relies amongst other things on the continuous and worldwide monitoring of radioxenon. The characterization of the existing and legitimate background, which is produced mainly by nuclear power plants and isotope production facilities, is of high interest to improve the capabilities of the monitoring network. However, the emissions from legitimate sources can usually only be estimated. For this paper historic source terms of (133)Xe emissions from the isotope production facility at ANSTO, Sydney, Australia, have been made available in a daily resolution. Based on these high resolution data, different source term sets with weekly, monthly and yearly time resolution have been compiled. These different sets are then applied together with atmospheric transport modelling (ATM) to predict the concentration time series at two radioxenon monitoring stations. The results are compared with each other in order to examine the improvement of the prediction capability depending on the used time resolution of the most dominant source term in the region.

  17. Australia's Next Top Fraction Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gould, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Peter Gould suggests Australia's next top fraction model should be a linear model rather than an area model. He provides a convincing argument and gives examples of ways to introduce a linear model in primary classrooms.

  18. Sustainability: Australia at the crossroads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Popp, Alexander

    2015-11-01

    A modelling study argues that comprehensive policy change could limit Australia's environmental pollution while maintaining a materials-intensive path to economic growth. But other paths are worth considering. See Article p.49

  19. Adult Learners' Week in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cross, John

    2002-01-01

    Promotional materials and activities for Australia's Adult Learners Week, which are shaped by a variety of stakeholders , include media strategies and a website. Activities are evaluated using a market research company and website and telephone hotline statistics. (SK)

  20. Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The Great Barrier Reef of Queensland, Australia extends for roughly 2,000 km along the northeast coast of Australia and is made up of thousands of individual reefs which define the edge of the Continental shelf. Swan Reef, the southern part of the reef system, is seen in this view. Water depths around the reefs are quite shallow (less than 1 to 36 meters) but only a few kilometers offshore, water depths can reach 1,000 meters.

  1. Rethinking "Commercial" Surrogacy in Australia.

    PubMed

    Millbank, Jenni

    2015-09-01

    This article proposes reconsideration of laws prohibiting paid surrogacy in Australia in light of increasing transnational commercial surrogacy. The social science evidence base concerning domestic surrogacy in developed economies demonstrates that payment alone cannot be used to differentiate "good" surrogacy arrangements from "bad" ones. Compensated domestic surrogacy and the introduction of professional intermediaries and mechanisms such as advertising are proposed as a feasible harm-minimisation approach. I contend that Australia can learn from commercial surrogacy practices elsewhere, without replicating them. PMID:25015592

  2. Rethinking "Commercial" Surrogacy in Australia.

    PubMed

    Millbank, Jenni

    2015-09-01

    This article proposes reconsideration of laws prohibiting paid surrogacy in Australia in light of increasing transnational commercial surrogacy. The social science evidence base concerning domestic surrogacy in developed economies demonstrates that payment alone cannot be used to differentiate "good" surrogacy arrangements from "bad" ones. Compensated domestic surrogacy and the introduction of professional intermediaries and mechanisms such as advertising are proposed as a feasible harm-minimisation approach. I contend that Australia can learn from commercial surrogacy practices elsewhere, without replicating them.

  3. Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.

    2016-04-01

    A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

  4. Neutron scattering in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Knott, R.B.

    1994-12-31

    Neutron scattering techniques have been part of the Australian scientific research community for the past three decades. The High Flux Australian Reactor (HIFAR) is a multi-use facility of modest performance that provides the only neutron source in the country suitable for neutron scattering. The limitations of HIFAR have been recognized and recently a Government initiated inquiry sought to evaluate the future needs of a neutron source. In essence, the inquiry suggested that a delay of several years would enable a number of key issues to be resolved, and therefore a more appropriate decision made. In the meantime, use of the present source is being optimized, and where necessary research is being undertaken at major overseas neutron facilities either on a formal or informal basis. Australia has, at present, a formal agreement with the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (UK) for access to the spallation source ISIS. Various aspects of neutron scattering have been implemented on HIFAR, including investigations of the structure of biological relevant molecules. One aspect of these investigations will be presented. Preliminary results from a study of the interaction of the immunosuppressant drug, cyclosporin-A, with reconstituted membranes suggest that the hydrophobic drug interdigitated with lipid chains.

  5. Indigenous actinorhizal plants of Australia.

    PubMed

    Ganguli, Nishath K; Kennedy, Ivan R

    2013-11-01

    Indigenous species of actinorhizal plants of Casuarinaceae, Elaeagnaceae and Rhamnaceae are found in specific regions of Australia. Most of these plants belong to Casuarinaceae, the dominant actinorhizal family in Australia. Many of them have significant environmental and economical value. The other two families with their indigenous actinorhizal plants have only a minor presence in Australia. Most Australian actinorhizal plants have their native range only in Australia, whereas two of these plants are also found indigenously elsewhere. The nitrogen-fixing ability of these plants varies between species. This ability needs to be investigated in some of these plants. Casuarinas form a distinctive but declining part of the Australian landscape. Their potential has rarely been applied in forestry in Australia despite their well-known uses, which are being judiciously exploited elsewhere. To remedy this oversight, a programme has been proposed for increasing and improving casuarinas that would aid in greening more regions of Australia, increasing the soil fertility and the area of wild life habitat (including endangered species). Whether these improved clones would be productive with local strains of Frankia or they need an external inoculum of Frankia should be determined and the influence of mycorrhizal fungi on these clones also should be investigated.

  6. Indigenous actinorhizal plants of Australia.

    PubMed

    Ganguli, Nishath K; Kennedy, Ivan R

    2013-11-01

    Indigenous species of actinorhizal plants of Casuarinaceae, Elaeagnaceae and Rhamnaceae are found in specific regions of Australia. Most of these plants belong to Casuarinaceae, the dominant actinorhizal family in Australia. Many of them have significant environmental and economical value. The other two families with their indigenous actinorhizal plants have only a minor presence in Australia. Most Australian actinorhizal plants have their native range only in Australia, whereas two of these plants are also found indigenously elsewhere. The nitrogen-fixing ability of these plants varies between species. This ability needs to be investigated in some of these plants. Casuarinas form a distinctive but declining part of the Australian landscape. Their potential has rarely been applied in forestry in Australia despite their well-known uses, which are being judiciously exploited elsewhere. To remedy this oversight, a programme has been proposed for increasing and improving casuarinas that would aid in greening more regions of Australia, increasing the soil fertility and the area of wild life habitat (including endangered species). Whether these improved clones would be productive with local strains of Frankia or they need an external inoculum of Frankia should be determined and the influence of mycorrhizal fungi on these clones also should be investigated. PMID:24287655

  7. Broad-spectrum monitoring strategies for predicting occult precipitation contribution to water balance in a coastal watershed in California: Ground-truthing, areal monitoring and isotopic analysis of fog in the San Francisco Bay region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koohafkan, M.; Thompson, S. E.; Leonardson, R.; Dufour, A.

    2013-12-01

    We showcase a fog monitoring study designed to quantitatively estimate the contribution of summer fog events to the water balance of a coastal watershed managed by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. Two decades of research now clearly show that fog and occult precipitation can be major contributors to the water balance of watersheds worldwide. Monitoring, understanding and predicting occult precipitation is therefore as hydrologically compelling as forecasting precipitation or evaporation, particularly in the face of climate variability. We combine ground-based monitoring and collection strategies with remote sensing technologies, time-lapse imagery, and isotope analysis to trace the ';signature' of fog in physical and ecological processes. Spatial coverage and duration of fog events in the watershed is monitored using time-lapse cameras and leaf wetness sensors strategically positioned to provide estimates of the fog bank extent and cloud base elevation, and this fine-scale data is used to estimate transpiration suppression by fog and is examined in the context of regional climate through the use of satellite imagery. Soil moisture sensors, throughfall collectors and advective fog collectors deployed throughout the watershed provide quantitative estimates of fog drip contribution to soil moisture and plants. Fog incidence records and streamflow monitoring provide daily estimates of fog contribution to streamflow. Isotope analysis of soil water, fog drip, stream water and vegetation samples are used to probe for evidence of direct root and leaf uptake of fog drip by plants. Using this diversity of fog monitoring methods, we develop an empirical framework for the inclusion of fog processes in water balance models.

  8. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  9. Energy expenditure prediction via a footwear-based physical activity monitor: Accuracy and comparison to other devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dannecker, Kathryn

    2011-12-01

    Accurately estimating free-living energy expenditure (EE) is important for monitoring or altering energy balance and quantifying levels of physical activity. The use of accelerometers to monitor physical activity and estimate physical activity EE is common in both research and consumer settings. Recent advances in physical activity monitors include the ability to identify specific activities (e.g. stand vs. walk) which has resulted in improved EE estimation accuracy. Recently, a multi-sensor footwear-based physical activity monitor that is capable of achieving 98% activity identification accuracy has been developed. However, no study has compared the EE estimation accuracy for this monitor and compared this accuracy to other similar devices. Purpose . To determine the accuracy of physical activity EE estimation of a footwear-based physical activity monitor that uses an embedded accelerometer and insole pressure sensors and to compare this accuracy against a variety of research and consumer physical activity monitors. Methods. Nineteen adults (10 male, 9 female), mass: 75.14 (17.1) kg, BMI: 25.07(4.6) kg/m2 (mean (SD)), completed a four hour stay in a room calorimeter. Participants wore a footwear-based physical activity monitor, as well as three physical activity monitoring devices used in research: hip-mounted Actical and Actigraph accelerometers and a multi-accelerometer IDEEA device with sensors secured to the limb and chest. In addition, participants wore two consumer devices: Philips DirectLife and Fitbit. Each individual performed a series of randomly assigned and ordered postures/activities including lying, sitting (quietly and using a computer), standing, walking, stepping, cycling, sweeping, as well as a period of self-selected activities. We developed branched (i.e. activity specific) linear regression models to estimate EE from the footwear-based device, and we used the manufacturer's software to estimate EE for all other devices. Results. The shoe

  10. Predicting risk-taking with and without substance use: the effects of parental monitoring, school bonding, and sports participation.

    PubMed

    Dever, Bridget V; Schulenberg, John E; Dworkin, Jodi B; O'Malley, Patrick M; Kloska, Deborah D; Bachman, Jerald G

    2012-12-01

    Risk-taking is statistically normative during adolescence, yet is associated with adverse outcomes including substance use. The present study draws the distinction between protective factors (effective for those identified as high risk takers) and promotive factors (effective for all) against substance use, focusing on parental monitoring, school bonding, and sports participation. A total of 36,514 8th and 10th grade participants in the national Monitoring the Future study were included. Although parental monitoring was associated with lower alcohol and marijuana use among all adolescents (i.e., promotive effect), these effects were strongest among the highest risk takers (i.e., protective effect) and females. School bonding was associated with lower levels of both alcohol and marijuana use among all groups of adolescents, but these promotive effects were weak. Sports participation was associated with higher levels of alcohol use among all males and among 8th grade females who did not identify as high risk takers. Despite being a risk factor for alcohol use, sports participation did demonstrate a promotive effect against marijuana use among 10th grade females only, and especially so for high risk-taking females (i.e., protective effect). Overall, these findings suggest that of the three mechanisms studied, parental monitoring emerged as the most promising entry point for substance use prevention and intervention across groups, particularly for females and high risk-taking adolescents.

  11. Australia Viewed by NIMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    This multispectral map of Australia and surrounding seas was obtained by the Galileo spacecraft's Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer shortly after closest approach on Dec. 8, 1990 from an altitude of about 50,000 miles. The image shows various ocean, land and atmospheric cloud features as they appear in three of the 408 infrared colors or wavelengths sensed by the instrument. The wavelength of 0.873 micron, represented as blue in the photo, shows regions of enhanced liquid water absorption, i.e. the Pacific and Indian oceans. The 0.984- micron band, represented as red, shows areas of enhanced ground reflection as on the Australian continent. This wavelength is also sensitive to the reflectivity of relatively thick clouds. The 0.939- micron wavelength, shown as green, is a strong water-vapor-absorbing band, and is used to accentuate clouds lying above the strongly absorbing lower atmosphere. When mixed with the red indicator of cloud reflection, the green produces a yellowish hue; this indicates thick clouds. The distinctive purplish color off the northeast coast marks the unusually shallow waters of the Great Barrier Reef and the Coral Sea. Here the blue denoting water absorption combines with the red denoting reflection from coral and surface marine organisms to produce this unusual color. The Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) on the Galileo spacecraft is a combined mapping (imaging) and spectral instrument. It can sense 408 contiguous wavelengths from 0.7 micron (deep red) to 5.2 microns, and can construct a map or image by mechanical scanning. It can spectroscopically analyze atmospheres and surfaces and construct thermal and chemical maps.

  12. The importance of utilizing 24-h Holter monitoring as a non-invasive method of predicting the mechanism of supraventricular tachycardia.

    PubMed

    Al Mehairi, M; Al Ghamdi, S A; Dagriri, K; Al Fagih, A

    2011-10-01

    Despite the emergence of advanced invasive technology in identifying the various types of arrhythmia mechanisms, 24-h ambulatory electrocardiogram monitoring as a non-invasive method remains an invaluable informative tool in delineating such mechanisms. Furthermore, one observational study has supported the utilization of 24-h Holter monitoring in exploring AV Node (AVN) characteristics sufficiently in correlation with invasive studies when limited to patients without Wolf Parkinson White syndrome showing a positive predictive value of 98% in their supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) assessment (Fukuda et al., 2005). We describe in this report suspected tachycardia initiation mechanism in three SVT cases based on 24-h Holter recordings. Premature atrial contraction with subsequent AVN fast pathway conduction block initiated the common type AVN re-entrant tachycardia (AVNRT). Dual AVN physiology was documented during the electrophysiological studies in all three cases and a definitive therapy was achieved by the AVN slow pathway modification.

  13. Rediscovering university teaching hospitals for Australia.

    PubMed

    Penington, David G

    2008-09-15

    Partnership between research and health services has a long history in other countries, but has been relatively recent in Australia, with several models arising in the 1960s and 1970s as research-based specialties developed. Since the implementation of Medibank, which became Medicare, Australian Health Care Agreements have been primarily crafted on the basis of transactional numbers, ignoring the need for links with teaching and research and the need to implement new developments. Education and research have been seen as the responsibility of the federal government, and hospitals are progressively less recognised or funded for these functions by the states. Australia's teaching hospitals are in danger of falling seriously behind those in other countries and losing their capacity to monitor quality, to innovate and to branch into new strategies in partnership with primary care services. We should look at initiatives in other countries such as the United Kingdom and Canada, which are making big strides in tackling similar issues. University hospitals hold the key, if appropriately linked with other services. The current Australian Health Care Agreements are on hold. A new agency is needed to support clinical and service-related research, with a new structure and track for federal government funding, and providing oversight of research and development, of clinical governance and quality of outcomes in health care, linked with new strategies for prevention and treatment. A component of the foreshadowed additional federal government funding for health should be sequestered to set up such an agency. PMID:18803539

  14. POPs monitoring in Australia and New Zealand using plastic resin pellets, and International Pellet Watch as a tool for education and raising public awareness on plastic debris and POPs.

    PubMed

    Yeo, Bee Geok; Takada, Hideshige; Taylor, Heidi; Ito, Maki; Hosoda, Junki; Allinson, Mayumi; Connell, Sharnie; Greaves, Laura; McGrath, John

    2015-12-15

    Persistent organic pollutants (i.e. PCBs, DDTs, and HCHs) were analyzed along Australia and New Zealand North Island coastlines. PCB concentrations were high in urban areas (107-294 ng/g-pellet), with Sydney Harbour the most polluted. Hepta-chlorinated PCB was abundant, with ~30% in urban areas suggesting legacy pollution. DDT concentrations showed similar pattern except in rural agricultural sites, Taupo Bay and Ahipara, New Zealand (23 and 47 ng/g-pellet). p,p'-DDE predominance at these 2 sites suggested historical input; they also had high HCH concentrations (17 and 29 ng/g-pellet). The role of International Pellet Watch (IPW) in science communication was studied through feedbacks from IPW volunteers, case studies and examples. IPW data were categorized into understandable terms and tailored reports based on volunteers' backgrounds complemented with pollution maps. The effectiveness of IPW science communication has led to its use in awareness and education activities focusing on both POPs and plastic debris issues. PMID:26586511

  15. POPs monitoring in Australia and New Zealand using plastic resin pellets, and International Pellet Watch as a tool for education and raising public awareness on plastic debris and POPs.

    PubMed

    Yeo, Bee Geok; Takada, Hideshige; Taylor, Heidi; Ito, Maki; Hosoda, Junki; Allinson, Mayumi; Connell, Sharnie; Greaves, Laura; McGrath, John

    2015-12-15

    Persistent organic pollutants (i.e. PCBs, DDTs, and HCHs) were analyzed along Australia and New Zealand North Island coastlines. PCB concentrations were high in urban areas (107-294 ng/g-pellet), with Sydney Harbour the most polluted. Hepta-chlorinated PCB was abundant, with ~30% in urban areas suggesting legacy pollution. DDT concentrations showed similar pattern except in rural agricultural sites, Taupo Bay and Ahipara, New Zealand (23 and 47 ng/g-pellet). p,p'-DDE predominance at these 2 sites suggested historical input; they also had high HCH concentrations (17 and 29 ng/g-pellet). The role of International Pellet Watch (IPW) in science communication was studied through feedbacks from IPW volunteers, case studies and examples. IPW data were categorized into understandable terms and tailored reports based on volunteers' backgrounds complemented with pollution maps. The effectiveness of IPW science communication has led to its use in awareness and education activities focusing on both POPs and plastic debris issues.

  16. First ceratosaurian dinosaur from Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzgerald, Erich M. G.; Carrano, Matthew T.; Holland, Timothy; Wagstaff, Barbara E.; Pickering, David; Rich, Thomas H.; Vickers-Rich, Patricia

    2012-05-01

    The basal theropod dinosaur clade Ceratosauria, and its subclade Abelisauroidea, is characteristic of late Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate faunas in western Gondwana (South America, Africa, Madagascar, and India) and Europe. Yet unambiguous records of ceratosaurs have hitherto been absent from Australia, where the theropod assemblage appears to include several typically Laurasian clades. Here, we report the first evidence of ceratosaurs (and potentially abelisauroids) from eastern Gondwana--a diagnostic astragalocalcaneum from the Aptian (121-125 Ma) of Victoria, Australia. Ceratosauria thus occurred in both western and eastern Gondwana during the Early Cretaceous. This fossil adds to the poorly known dinosaur fauna of Australia, a major clade of basal theropods, emphasising that its mid-Cretaceous theropod diversity was surprisingly cosmopolitan despite relative geographic isolation, including clades that have been thought to be typical of both Gondwana and Laurasia--Ceratosauria, Spinosauridae, Carcharodontosauria, Tyrannosauroidea, and Deinonychosauria. Such a contemporaneous association of theropod clades is unknown from other Gondwanan continents and questions the views that the late Mesozoic dinosaur fauna of Australia was dominated by Gondwanan or Laurasian elements, extreme isolation, relictualism, and/or novelty as a `centre of origin'. The cosmopolitan theropod fauna of Australia probably reflects the global distribution of these clades early in their history, prior to significant continental breakup.

  17. Review of Australia's polio surveillance.

    PubMed

    Paterson, Beverley J; Durrheim, David N

    2013-06-01

    With eradication almost within reach, the importance of detecting every poliomyelitis case has taken on additional significance. The selected surveillance strategy must be effective and efficient. A review of polio surveillance in Australia was conducted to consider whether current strategies were optimal. Document review and semi-structured key informant interviews were used to conduct the review. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and thematically analysed. The review was an iterative process with feedback on the findings sought from interviewees. Since Western Pacific Regional polio-elimination status was certified, one imported adult case was detected in 2007 in Australia, with no evidence of further transmission, and no Australian paediatric cases identified. Respondents reported that: it was not possible to prevent importations; paediatric cases were more likely to be identified than adult cases; and there may be a low level of suspicion among clinicians. Case detection and outbreak mitigation were considered key reasons to undertake polio surveillance. While Australia has not achieved one of the key World Health Organization (WHO) surveillance targets, this did not compromise Australias polio-free status. Identified issues with polio surveillance were the potential for an importation with high attendant investigation and containment costs, low stool sample collection rates, and the opportunity to improve safeguards around the importation and laboratory storage of biological samples containing poliovirus. The review found strong support for ongoing polio surveillance, particularly to detect imported cases and to demonstrate commitment to maintaining a polio-free region. Existing polio surveillance strategies were considered appropriate for Australia. PMID:24168089

  18. Australia`s southeastern Bonaparte basin has plenty of potential

    SciTech Connect

    Miyazaki, S.

    1997-04-21

    Situated in the Timor Sea and Joseph Bonaparte Gulf regions, the Bonaparte basin is one of the Phanerozoic basins of what is now called the North West Shelf of Australia. This basin consists of a number of Paleozoic and Mesozoic synclines and horsts. Drilling success rate for this basin is one of the highest in Australia in the last 5 years. New opportunities are available in the southeastern Bonaparte basin, where seven vacant tracts have just been released for application for exploration permits. The paper discusses the regional geology, previous exploration activities, and potentials of the southern Petrel sub-basin and Darwin shelf.

  19. Physiologic monitoring in extreme environments: application of microsensors and embedded processors to predict heat stress in fire fighters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Gelder, Carin; Pranger, L. Alex; Urias, Adrian R.; Lo, Ronalee; Wiesmann, William P.; Winchell, Robert J.; Kolka, Margaret A.; Stachenfeld, Nina; Bogucki, Sandy

    2002-05-01

    Interior structural firefighting involves heavy physical exertion under extreme environmental conditions. Personal protective clothing and equipment impose 50 lbs of weight on fire fighters and impede the evaporative cooling mechanisms normally responsible for thermoregulation during exercise. The intense heat of the fire ground further exacerbates the physiological stress on working fire fighters. Occupational morbidity and mortality statistics reflect the impact of such stressors on fire service personnel. Non-invasive physiological monitoring capabilities are needed to more precisely define the cardiovascular responses to the demands of fire fighting and identify markers of impending failure of compensatory mechanisms prior to collapse or onset of irreversible pathology. A suite of sensors designed to provide continuous remote monitoring of fire fighters has been developed. Oximetry sensors are incorporated into SCBA facemask to allow unencumbered monitoring and analysis of cardiovascular and pulmonary function. The present report also describes a model system for physiological studies of fire fighting. This system comprises a series of timed simulations of fire ground tasks performed by fire fighters in a heated environmental chamber. Preliminary testing confirms the feasibility of reliable oximetry signal acquisition under fire ground conditions.

  20. Islands of water in a sea of dry land: hydrological regime predicts genetic diversity and dispersal in a widespread fish from Australia's arid zone, the golden perch (Macquaria ambigua).

    PubMed

    Faulks, Leanne K; Gilligan, Dean M; Beheregaray, Luciano B

    2010-11-01

    Rivers provide an excellent system to study interactions between patterns of biodiversity structure and ecological processes. In these environments, gene flow is restricted by the spatial hierarchy and temporal variation of connectivity within the drainage network. In the Australian arid zone, this variability is high and rivers often exist as isolated waterholes connected during unpredictable floods. These conditions cause boom/bust cycles in the population dynamics of taxa, but their influence on spatial genetic diversity is largely unknown. We used a landscape genetics approach to assess the effect of hydrological variability on gene flow, spatial population structure and genetic diversity in an Australian freshwater fish, Macquaria ambigua. Our analysis is based on microsatellite data of 590 samples from 26 locations across the species range. Despite temporal isolation of populations, the species showed surprisingly high rates of dispersal, with population genetic structure only evident among major drainage basins. Within drainages, hydrological variability was a strong predictor of genetic diversity, being positively correlated with spring-time flow volume. We propose that increases in flow volume during spring stimulate recruitment booms and dispersal, boosting population size and genetic diversity. Although it is uncertain how the hydrological regime in arid Australia may change under future climate scenarios, management strategies for arid-zone fishes should mitigate barriers to dispersal and alterations to the natural flow regime to maintain connectivity and the species' evolutionary potential. This study contributes to our understanding of the influence of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on population and landscape processes.

  1. “Transference Ratios” to Predict Total Oxidized Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition – Part I, Monitoring Results

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of model-predicted “transference ratios” is currently under consideration by the US EPA in the formulation of a Secondary National Ambient Air Quality Standard for oxidized nitrogen and oxidized sulfur. This term is an empirical parameter defined for oxidized sulfur (TS)as th...

  2. Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia

    PubMed Central

    Cope, Robert C.; Cassey, Phillip; Hugo, Graeme J.; Ross, Joshua V.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To assess the risk of Ebola importation to Australia during the first six months of 2015, based upon the current outbreak in West Africa. Methodology: We assessed the risk under two distinct scenarios: (i) assuming that significant numbers of cases of Ebola remain confined to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and using historic passenger arrival data into Australia; and, (ii) assuming potential secondary spread based upon international flight data. A model appropriate to each scenario is developed, and parameterised using passenger arrival card or international flight data, and World Health Organisation case data from West Africa. These models were constructed based on WHO Ebola outbreak data as at 17 October 2014 and 3 December 2014. An assessment of the risk under each scenario is reported. On 27 October 2014 the Australian Government announced a policy change, that visas from affected countries would be refused/cancelled, and the predicted effect of this policy change is reported. Results: The current probability of at least one case entering Australia by 1 July 2015, having travelled directly from West Africa with historic passenger arrival rates into Australia, is 0.34. Under the new Australian Government policy of restricting visas from affected countries (as of 27 October 2014), the probability of at least one case entering Australia by 1 July 2015 is reduced to 0.16. The probability of at least one case entering Australia by 1 July 2015 via an outbreak from a secondary source country is approximately 0.12. Conclusions: Our models suggest that if the transmission of Ebola remains unchanged, it is possible that a case will enter Australia within the first six months of 2015, either directly from West Africa (even when current visa restrictions are considered), or via secondary outbreaks elsewhere. Government and medical authorities should be prepared to respond to this eventuality. Control measures within West Africa over recent months have

  3. Monitoring the source monitoring.

    PubMed

    Luna, Karlos; Martín-Luengo, Beatriz

    2013-11-01

    The hypothesis that the retrieval of correct source memory cues, those leading to a correct source attribution, increases confidence, whereas the retrieval of incorrect source memory cues, those leading to a source misattribution, decreases confidence was tested. Four predictions were derived from this hypothesis: (1) confidence should be higher for correct than incorrect source attribution except; (2) when no source cues are retrieved; (3) only the source misattributions inferred from the retrieval of incorrect source cues will be rated with low confidence; and (4) the number of source cues retrieved, either correct or incorrect, will affect the confidence in the source attributions. To test these predictions, participants read two narratives from two witnesses to a bank robbery, a customer and a teller. Then, participants completed a source monitoring test with four alternatives, customer, teller, both, or neither, and rated their confidence in their source attribution. Results supported the first three predictions, but they also suggested that the number of correct source monitoring cues retrieved did not play a role in the monitoring of the accuracy of the source attributions. Attributions made from the recovery of incorrect source cues could be tagged as dubious or uncertain, thus leading to lowered confidence irrespective of the number of incorrect source cues or whether another correct source cue was also recovered. This research has potential applications for eyewitness memory because it shows that confidence can be an indicator of the accuracy of a source attribution. PMID:23553316

  4. Australia: the coming of age.

    PubMed

    Kelley, A C

    1988-01-01

    Current demographic trends in Australia and their implications are assessed. The author concludes that "Australia faces a relatively favourable demographic future: ageing is proceeding at a slower pace here, the pattern of the labour force ageing is conducive to restructuring in the intermediate future, and a well-established immigration policy can be used to accommodate demographics with social and economic goals. The financing of social services for the aged will produce fewer concerns here partly because of less immediate demographic pressures and partly because of the orientation of the age-pension system." PMID:12233479

  5. British atomic tests in Australia.

    PubMed

    Suter, K

    1994-01-01

    The United Kingdom and Australia have reached agreement on the British payment for cleaning up the Maralinga (South Australia) site at which the UK tested some of its atomic weapons in the 1960s. The tests were conducted amid great secrecy and only in recent years has the truth about the health hazards fully emerged. The peace movement opposed the tests and its stand has been vindicated. Also vindicated have been the claims by Aborigines that more damage was done by the tests than was earlier admitted.

  6. Clavadoce (Annelida: Phyllodocidae) from Australia.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Robin S; Greaves, Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    The first records of the phyllodocid genus Clavadoce are provided from Australia, where the fifth species in the genus is now known: Clavadoce dorsolobata (Hartmann-Schröder, 1987) comb. nov. which is widely distributed in intertidal habitats in southeastern Australia. Clavadoce dorsolobata was described as Eumida (Sige) dorsolobata Hartmann-Schröder, 1987 and herein transferred to Clavadoce. Five species of Clavadoce are now known world wide, four of which are from different regions on the Pacific Ocean margin, while Clavadoce cristata is from the North Atlantic. The Australian species is the first record of Clavadoce for the southern hemisphere. PMID:27395480

  7. Land use change detection with LANDSAT-2 data for monitoring and predicting regional water quality degradation. [Arkansas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, H.; Steele, K. (Principal Investigator); Waite, W.; Rice, R.; Shinn, M.; Dillard, T.; Petersen, C.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Comparison between LANDSAT 1 and 2 imagery of Arkansas provided evidence of significant land use changes during the 1972-75 time period. Analysis of Arkansas historical water quality information has shown conclusively that whereas point source pollution generally can be detected by use of water quality data collected by state and federal agencies, sampling methodologies for nonpoint source contamination attributable to surface runoff are totally inadequate. The expensive undertaking of monitoring all nonpoint sources for numerous watersheds can be lessened by implementing LANDSAT change detection analyses.

  8. Comparison of chimerism and minimal residual disease monitoring for relapse prediction after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Terwey, Theis Helge; Hemmati, Philipp Georg; Nagy, Marion; Pfeifer, Heike; Gökbuget, Nicola; Brüggemann, Monika; Le Duc, Tanja Melinh; le Coutre, Philipp; Dörken, Bernd; Arnold, Renate

    2014-10-01

    Little data are available on the relative merits of chimerism and minimal residual disease (MRD) monitoring for relapse prediction after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). We performed a retrospective analysis of serial chimerism assessments in 101 adult HCT recipients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and of serial MRD assessments in a subgroup of 22 patients. All patients had received myeloablative conditioning. The cumulative incidence of relapse was significantly higher in the patients with increasing mixed chimerism (in-MC) compared with those with complete chimerism, low-level MC, and decreasing MC, but the sensitivity of in-MC detection with regard to relapse prediction was only modest. In contrast, MRD assessment was highly sensitive and specific. Patients with MRD positivity after HCT had the highest incidence of relapse among all prognostic groups analyzed. The median time from MRD positivity to relapse was longer than the median time from detection of in-MC, but in some cases in-MC preceded MRD positivity. We conclude that MRD assessment is a powerful prognostic tool that should be included in the routine post-transplantation monitoring of patients with ALL, but chimerism analysis may provide additional information in some cases. Integration of these tools and clinical judgment should allow optimal decision making with regard to post-transplantation therapeutic interventions.

  9. Integrating the probability integral method for subsidence prediction and differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry for monitoring mining subsidence in Fengfeng, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diao, Xinpeng; Wu, Kan; Zhou, Dawei; Li, Liang

    2016-01-01

    Differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (D-InSAR) is characterized mainly by high spatial resolution and high accuracy over a wide coverage range. Because of its unique advantages, the technology is widely used for monitoring ground surface deformations. However, in coal mining areas, the ground surface can suffer large-scale collapses in short periods of time, leading to inaccuracies in D-InSAR results and limiting its use for monitoring mining subsidence. We propose a data-processing method that overcomes these disadvantages by combining D-InSAR with the probability integral method used for predicting mining subsidence. Five RadarSat-2 images over Fengfeng coal mine, China, were used to demonstrate the proposed method and assess its effectiveness. Using this method, surface deformation could be monitored over an area of thousands of square kilometers, and more than 50 regions affected by subsidence were identified. For Jiulong mine, nonlinear subsidence cumulative results were obtained for a time period from January 2011 to April 2011, and the maximum subsidence value reached up to 299 mm. Finally, the efficiency and applicability of the proposed method were verified by comparing with data from leveling surveying.

  10. A Label-free Selected Reaction Monitoring Workflow Identifies a Subset of Pregnancy Specific Glycoproteins as Potential Predictive Markers of Early-onset Pre-eclampsia*

    PubMed Central

    Blankley, Richard T.; Fisher, Christal; Westwood, Melissa; North, Robyn; Baker, Philip N.; Walker, Michael J.; Williamson, Andrew; Whetton, Anthony D.; Lin, Wanchang; McCowan, Lesley; Roberts, Claire T.; Cooper, Garth J. S.; Unwin, Richard D.; Myers, Jenny E.

    2013-01-01

    Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a serious complication of pregnancy with potentially life threatening consequences for both mother and baby. Presently there is no test with the required performance to predict which healthy first-time mothers will go on to develop PE. The high specificity, sensitivity, and multiplexed nature of selected reaction monitoring holds great potential as a tool for the verification and validation of putative candidate biomarkersfor disease states. Realization of this potential involves establishing a high throughput, cost effective, reproducible sample preparation workflow. We have developed a semi-automated HPLC-based sample preparation workflow before a label-free selected reaction monitoring approach. This workflow has been applied to the search for novel predictive biomarkers for PE. To discover novel candidate biomarkers for PE, we used isobaric tagging to identify several potential biomarker proteins in plasma obtained at 15 weeks gestation from nulliparous women who later developed PE compared with pregnant women who remained healthy. Such a study generates a number of “candidate” biomarkers that require further testing in larger patient cohorts. As proof-of-principle, two of these proteins were taken forward for verification in a 100 women (58 PE, 42 controls) using label-free SRM. We obtained reproducible protein quantitation across the 100 samples and demonstrated significant changes in protein levels, even with as little as 20% change in protein concentration. The SRM data correlated with a commercial ELISA, suggesting that this is a robust workflow suitable for rapid, affordable, label-free verification of which candidate biomarkers should be taken forward for thorough investigation. A subset of pregnancy-specific glycoproteins (PSGs) had value as novel predictive markers for PE. PMID:23897580

  11. Monitoring and Predicting the Long Distance Transport of Fusarium graminearum, Causal Agent of Fusarium Head Blight in Wheat and Barley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prussin, Aaron Justin, II

    Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused by Fusarium graminearum , is a serious disease of wheat and barley that has caused several billion dollars in crop losses over the last decade in the United States. Spores of F. graminearum are released from corn and small grain residues left-over from the previous growing season and are transported long distances in the atmosphere before being deposited. Current risk assessment tools consider environmental conditions favorable for disease development, but do not include spore transport. Long distance transport models have been proposed for a number of plant pathogens, but many of these models have not been experimentally validated. In order to predict the atmospheric transport of F. graminearum, the potential source strength ( Qpot) of inoculum must be known. We conducted a series of laboratory and field experiments to estimate Qpot from a field-scale source of inoculum of F. graminearum. Perithecia were generated on artificial (carrot agar) and natural (corn stalk) substrates. Artificial substrate (carrot agar) produced 15+/-0.4 perithecia cm-2, and natural substrate (corn stalk) produced 44+/-2 perithecia cm-2. Individual perithecia were excised from both substrate types and allowed to release ascospores every 24 hours. Perithecia generated from artificial (carrot agar) and natural (corn stalk) substrates released a mean of 104+/-5 and 276+/-16 ascospores, respectively. A volumetric spore trap was placed inside a 3,716 m2 clonal source of inoculum in 2011 and 2012. Results indicated that ascospores were released under field conditions predominantly (>90%) during the night (1900 to 0700 hours). Estimates of Qpot for our field-scale sources of inoculum were approximately 4 billion ascospores per 3,716 m 2. Release-recapture studies were conducted from a clonal field-scale source of F. graminearum in 2011 and 2012. Microsatellites were used to identify the released clone of F. graminearum at distances up to 1 km from the source

  12. Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kabuchanga, Eric; Flores, Africa; Malaso, Susan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Shaka, Ayub; Limaye, Ashutosh

    2014-01-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  13. Frost monitoring and forecasting using MODIS Land Surface Temperature data and a Numerical Weather Prediction model forecasts for Eastern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limaye, A. S.; Kabuchanga, E. S.; Flores, A.; Mungai, J.; Sakwa, V. N.; Shaka, A.; Malaso, S.; Irwin, D.

    2014-12-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agriculture. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  14. Time-series model for predicting ambient TSP concentrations at monitors located near coal-fired power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Warren-Hicks, W.; Siple, G.

    1984-01-01

    The scope of this paper is to develop a time-series model applicable to a number of data sets containing total suspended particulate (TSP) data. The authors wanted the mathematical form of the model to be as simple as possible while maintaining a good fit to all the TSP data sets involved. To this end, data from three TSP monitoring sites, which are located near coal-fired power plants operated by Carolina Power and Light Company in North Carolina, were chosen for analysis. The data consisted of every-sixth-day, 24-hour TSP concentrations collected using a high-volume sampler and measured gravimetrically. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series, model was fit to each data set. The model was then used to fill in missing concentrations and forecast future values. Forecasted values were compared against measured maximum and averaged values.

  15. Monitoring and Predicting the Export and Fate of Global Ocean Net Primary Production: The EXPORTS Field Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Exports Science Definition Team

    2016-04-01

    Ocean ecosystems play a critical role in the Earth's carbon cycle and its quantification on global scales remains one of the greatest challenges in global ocean biogeochemistry. The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from Remote Sensing (EXPORTS) science plan is to develop a predictive understanding of the export and fate of global ocean primary production and its implications for the Earth's carbon cycle in present and future climates. NASA's satellite ocean-color data record has revolutionized our understanding of global marine systems. EXPORTS is designed to advance the utility of NASA ocean color assets to predict how changes in ocean primary production will impact the global carbon cycle. EXPORTS will create a predictive understanding of both the export of organic carbon from the euphotic zone and its fate in the underlying "twilight zone" (depths of 500 m or more) where variable fractions of exported organic carbon are respired back to CO2. Ultimately, it is the sequestration of deep organic carbon transport that defines the impact of ocean biota on atmospheric CO2 levels and hence climate. EXPORTS will generate a new, detailed understanding of ocean carbon transport processes and pathways linking upper ocean phytoplankton processes to the export and fate of organic matter in the underlying twilight zone using a combination of field campaigns, remote sensing and numerical modeling. The overarching objective for EXPORTS is to ensure the success of future satellite missions by establishing mechanistic relationships between remotely sensed signals and carbon cycle processes. Through a process-oriented approach, EXPORTS will foster new insights on ocean carbon cycling that will maximize its societal relevance and be a key component in the U.S. investment to understand Earth as an integrated system.

  16. Methods and Tools for Monitoring and Prediction of the Large-Scale Environmental Impact of Railway Noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ELBERS, F. B. J.

    2000-03-01

    Due to environmental impact regulations there is a demand for methods and tools to determine noise reception levels near railway lines. Currently, a wide variety of methods and tools is available. Fast computers now enable us to develop powerful tools that combine simplified prediction methods with GIS systems. These new systems allow the study of noise reception levels and environmental impact on a large-scale (complete network, national or international), while more detailed and labour-intensive methods and tools are used when demanded by law. This paper presents a brief overview of the noise prediction methods and tools used in the Netherlands. The focus is on the advantages and restrictions of the different methods. Finally, the paper gives an overview of the actual advantages and restrictions of the recently extended Gerano method Gerano98 (Geographic Railway Noise). Gerano was originally based on the “basic Dutch calculation rules for railway noise”. Gerano98 was extended using simplified prediction schemes for the most relevant parts of the “detailed Dutch calculation rules for railway noise”. This most recent calculation method, combined with geographic input features, provides the possibility of determining noise impact and the noise measures to be taken on both the medium and large scale. Examples of the application of the methods and tools to specific (medium- and large-scale) projects are provided. The medium-scale project presents the results of a selection of the prefered line between Amsterdam and Zwolle. The large-scale project (the complete Dutch railway network) shows the results of the comparison of noise measures at source with noise barriers or housing insulation. For both projects the applicability and the usefulness of the methods in these situations is discussed. In conclusion four developments of the Gerano concept are described which have recently been finished or will be so in the near future.

  17. Prediction and Monitoring Systems of Creep-Fracture Behavior of 9Cr-1Mo Steels for Teactor Pressure Vessels

    SciTech Connect

    Potirniche, Gabriel; Barlow, Fred D.; Charit, Indrajit; Rink, Karl

    2013-11-26

    A recent workshop on next-generation nuclear plant (NGNP) topics underscored the need for research studies on the creep fracture behavior of two materials under consideration for reactor pressure vessel (RPV) applications: 9Cr-1Mo and SA-5XX steels. This research project will provide a fundamental understanding of creep fracture behavior of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel welds for through modeling and experimentation and will recommend a design for an RPV structural health monitoring system. Following are the specific objectives of this research project: Characterize metallurgical degradation in welded modified 9Cr-1Mo steel resulting from aging processes and creep service conditions; Perform creep tests and characterize the mechanisms of creep fracture process; Quantify how the microstructure degradation controls the creep strength of welded steel specimens; Perform finite element (FE) simulations using polycrystal plasticity to understand how grain texture affects the creep fracture properties of welds; Develop a microstructure-based creep fracture model to estimate RPVs service life; Manufacture small, prototypic, cylindrical pressure vessels, subject them to degradation by aging, and measure their leak rates; Simulate damage evolution in creep specimens by FE analyses; Develop a model that correlates gas leak rates from welded pressure vessels with the amount of microstructural damage; Perform large-scale FE simulations with a realistic microstructure to evaluate RPV performance at elevated temperatures and creep strength; Develop a fracture model for the structural integrity of RPVs subjected to creep loads; and Develop a plan for a non-destructive structural health monitoring technique and damage detection device for RPVs.

  18. Serious Incident Management in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, Ike; Thorley-Smith, Sara

    2007-01-01

    As part of its efforts to ensure school safety, the government of New South Wales, Australia, has developed simulation exercises to better prepare principals to manage serious incidents, in collaboration with police. This article describes two initiatives implemented across NSW. The exercises provide principals in both secondary and primary…

  19. Afrikaans Language Maintenance in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hatoss, Aniko; Starks, Donna; van Rensburg, Henriette Janse

    2011-01-01

    Changes in the political climate in the home country have resulted in the emigration of South Africans to English speaking countries such as Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Despite the scale of movement of the South African population, language maintenance in these diasporic contexts has received little consideration. This paper…

  20. Contextualising Multilingualism in Australia Today

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, Robyn

    2015-01-01

    This paper will begin by looking at globalisation, education and transnationalism in the context of Australia's post-war immigration history leading to a brief examination of the international literature surrounding second and third generation immigration. A brief review of international educational trends in English language teaching in recent…

  1. Fleximode: Within Western Australia TAFE.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toussaint, Dorothy

    After fleximode was introduced into the Western Australian TAFE system, its cost and effectiveness compared with traditional delivery systems were evaluated. Fleximode, as practiced in Australia, was adapted from a mode of study pioneered in England. It offered students the independence of off-campus study in combination with access to college…

  2. Improving Reading in Australia's Outback

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharratt, Lyn; Hayes, Peter; Coutts, James

    2015-01-01

    Ten years ago, six teachers established a program of literacy intervention and professional learning in remote northwestern Australia based on the Reading Recovery principles. This group of teachers was determined to learn what had to happen in order for them to make a difference with students and then to make it happen. Their work led to getting…

  3. Demography of Muslims in Australia.

    PubMed

    Yusuf, F

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the origins and size of the Muslim population in Australia, at present about 1% of the total population. Their age distribution is younger and their sociodemographic characteristics are different from those of the rest of the Australian population. PMID:2298763

  4. Early College Entrance in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jung, Jae Yup; Young, Marie; Gross, Miraca U. M.

    2015-01-01

    Early college entry is an educational intervention that is being increasingly used in Australia. Following a review of the current Australian literature on early college entry, an overview is provided of the characteristics of, and the procedures associated with, one formal Australian early college entry program (the Early Admission for…

  5. Women and Literacy in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Macrae, Helen; Agostinelli, Jacinta

    The experiences, attitudes, and needs of three literacy learners and one paid literacy teacher in Melbourne, Australia, were examined. The analysis was framed by the following principles: (1) literacy is a feminist issue; (2) adult literacy education is best defined as broad, general education that is grounded in language and fosters depth and…

  6. Monitoring and Predicting Land-use Changes and the Hydrology of the Urbanized Paochiao Watershed in Taiwan Using Remote Sensing Data, Urban Growth Models and a Hydrological Model

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yu-Pin; Lin, Yun-Bin; Wang, Yen-Tan; Hong, Nien-Ming

    2008-01-01

    Monitoring and simulating urban sprawl and its effects on land-use patterns and hydrological processes in urbanized watersheds are essential in land-use and water-resource planning and management. This study applies a novel framework to the urban growth model Slope, Land use, Excluded land, Urban extent, Transportation, and Hillshading (SLEUTH) and land-use change with the Conversion of Land use and its Effects (CLUE-s) model using historical SPOT images to predict urban sprawl in the Paochiao watershed in Taipei County, Taiwan. The historical and predicted land-use data was input into Patch Analyst to obtain landscape metrics. This data was also input to the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model to analyze the effects of future urban sprawl on the land-use patterns and watershed hydrology. The landscape metrics of the historical SPOT images show that land-use patterns changed between 1990–2000. The SLEUTH model accurately simulated historical land-use patterns and urban sprawl in the Paochiao watershed, and simulated future clustered land-use patterns (2001–2025). The CLUE-s model also simulated land-use patterns for the same period and yielded historical trends in the metrics of land-use patterns. The land-use patterns predicted by the SLEUTH and CLUE-s models show the significant impact urban sprawl will have on land-use patterns in the Paochiao watershed. The historical and predicted land-use patterns in the watershed tended to fragment, had regular shapes and interspersion patterns, but were relatively less isolated in 2001–2025 and less interspersed from 2005–2025 compared with land-use pattern in 1990. During the study, the variability and magnitude of hydrological components based on the historical and predicted land-use patterns were cumulatively affected by urban sprawl in the watershed; specifically, surface runoff increased significantly by 22.0% and baseflow decreased by 18.0% during 1990–2025. The proposed approach is an

  7. The crustal thickness of Australia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clitheroe, G.; Gudmundsson, O.; Kennett, B.L.N.

    2000-01-01

    We investigate the crustal structure of the Australian continent using the temporary broadband stations of the Skippy and Kimba projects and permanent broadband stations. We isolate near-receiver information, in the form of crustal P-to-S conversions, using the receiver function technique. Stacked receiver functions are inverted for S velocity structure using a Genetic Algorithm approach to Receiver Function Inversion (GARFI). From the resulting velocity models we are able to determine the Moho depth and to classify the width of the crust-mantle transition for 65 broadband stations. Using these results and 51 independent estimates of crustal thickness from refraction and reflection profiles, we present a new, improved, map of Moho depth for the Australian continent. The thinnest crust (25 km) occurs in the Archean Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia; the thickest crust (61 km) occurs in Proterozoic central Australia. The average crustal thickness is 38.8 km (standard deviation 6.2 km). Interpolation error estimates are made using kriging and fall into the range 2.5-7.0 km. We find generally good agreement between the depth to the seismologically defined Moho and xenolith-derived estimates of crustal thickness beneath northeastern Australia. However, beneath the Lachlan Fold Belt the estimates are not in agreement, and it is possible that the two techniques are mapping differing parts of a broad Moho transition zone. The Archean cratons of Western Australia appear to have remained largely stable since cratonization, reflected in only slight variation of Moho depth. The largely Proterozoic center of Australia shows relatively thicker crust overall as well as major Moho offsets. We see evidence of the margin of the contact between the Precambrian craton and the Tasman Orogen, referred to as the Tasman Line. Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. Monitoring and modeling to predict Escherichia coli at Presque Isle Beach 2, City of Erie, Erie County, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zimmerman, Tammy M.

    2006-01-01

    The Lake Erie shoreline in Pennsylvania spans nearly 40 miles and is a valuable recreational resource for Erie County. Nearly 7 miles of the Lake Erie shoreline lies within Presque Isle State Park in Erie, Pa. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria at permitted Presque Isle beaches occasionally exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard, resulting in unsafe swimming conditions and closure of the beaches. E. coli concentrations and other water-quality and environmental data collected at Presque Isle Beach 2 during the 2004 and 2005 recreational seasons were used to develop models using tobit regression analyses to predict E. coli concentrations. All variables statistically related to E. coli concentrations were included in the initial regression analyses, and after several iterations, only those explanatory variables that made the models significantly better at predicting E. coli concentrations were included in the final models. Regression models were developed using data from 2004, 2005, and the combined 2-year dataset. Variables in the 2004 model and the combined 2004-2005 model were log10 turbidity, rain weight, wave height (calculated), and wind direction. Variables in the 2005 model were log10 turbidity and wind direction. Explanatory variables not included in the final models were water temperature, streamflow, wind speed, and current speed; model results indicated these variables did not meet significance criteria at the 95-percent confidence level (probabilities were greater than 0.05). The predicted E. coli concentrations produced by the models were used to develop probabilities that concentrations would exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters. Analysis of the exceedence probabilities helped determine a threshold probability for each model, chosen such that the correct number of exceedences and nonexceedences was maximized and the number of false positives and false negatives was

  9. A remote sensing tool to monitor and predict epidemiologic outbreaks of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrios, M.; Verstraeten, W. W.; Amipour, S.; Wambacq, J.; Aerts, J.-M.; Maes, P.; Berckmans, D.; Lagrou, K.; van Ranst, M.; Coppin, P.

    2009-04-01

    Lyme disease and Hanta virus infection are the result of the conjunction of several climatic and ecological conditions. Although both affections have different causal agents, they share an important characteristic which is the fact that rodents play an important role in the contagion. One of the most important agents in the dispersion of these diseases is the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareoulus). The bank vole is a common host for both, the Borrelia bacteria which via the ticks (Ixodes ricinus) reaches the human body and causes the Lyme disease, and the Nephropatia epidemica which is caused by Puumala Hantavirus and affects kidneys in humans. The prefered habitat of bank voles is broad-leaf forests with an important presence of beeches (Fagus sylvatica) and oaks (Quercus sp.) and a relatively dense low vegetation layer. These vegetation systems are common in West-Europe and their dynamics have a great influence in the bank voles population and, therefore, in the spreading of the infections this study is concerned about. The fact that the annual seed production is not stable in time has an important effect in bank voles population and, as it has been described in other studies, in the number of reported cases of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease. The years in which an abundant production of seeds is observed are referred to as mast years which are believed to obey to cyclic patterns and to certain climatologically characteristics of the preceding years. Statistical analysis have confirmed the correlation in the behaviour of the number of infected cases and the presence of mast years. This project aims at the design of a remote sensing based system (INFOPRESS - INFectious disease Outbreak Prediction REmote Sensing based System) that should enable local and national health care instances to predict and locate the occurrence of infection outbreaks and design policies to counteract undesired effects. The predictive capabilities of the system are based on the

  10. A remote sensing tool to monitor and predict epidemiologic outbreaks of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrios, J. M.

    2009-04-01

    Lyme disease and Hanta virus infection are the result of the conjunction of several climatic and ecological conditions. Although both affections have different causal agents, they share an important characteristic which is the fact that rodents play an important role in the contagium. One of the most important agents in the dispersion of these diseases is the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareoulus). The bank vole is a common host for both, the Borrelia bacteria which via the ticks (Ixodes ricinus) reaches the human body and causes the Lyme disease, and the Nephropatia epidemica which is caused by Puumala Hantavirus and affects kidneys in humans. The prefered habitat of bank voles is broad-leaf forests with an important presence of beeches (Fagus sylvatica) and oaks (Quercus sp.) and a relatively dense low vegetation layer. These vegetation systems are common in West-Europe and their dynamics have a great influence in the bank voles population and, therefore, in the spreading of the infections this study is concerned about. The fact that the annual seed production is not stable in time has an important effect in bank voles population and, as it has been described in other studies, in the number of reported cases of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease. The years in which an abundant production of seeds is observed are referred to as mast years which are believed to obey to cyclic patterns and to certain climatological characteristics of the preceding years. Statistical analysis have confirmed the correlation in the behaviour of the number of infected cases and the presence of mast years. This project aims at the design of a remote sensing based system (INFOPRESS - INFectious disease Outbreak Prediction REmote Sensing based System) that should enable local and national health care instances to predict and locate the occurrence of infection outbreaks and design policies to counteract undesired effects. The predictive capabilities of the system are based on the

  11. Use of predictive algorithms in-home monitoring of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Sanchez-Morillo, Daniel; Fernandez-Granero, Miguel A; Leon-Jimenez, Antonio

    2016-08-01

    Major reported factors associated with the limited effectiveness of home telemonitoring interventions in chronic respiratory conditions include the lack of useful early predictors, poor patient compliance and the poor performance of conventional algorithms for detecting deteriorations. This article provides a systematic review of existing algorithms and the factors associated with their performance in detecting exacerbations and supporting clinical decisions in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. An electronic literature search in Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and Cochrane library was conducted to identify relevant articles published between 2005 and July 2015. A total of 20 studies (16 COPD, 4 asthma) that included research about the use of algorithms in telemonitoring interventions in asthma and COPD were selected. Differences on the applied definition of exacerbation, telemonitoring duration, acquired physiological signals and symptoms, type of technology deployed and algorithms used were found. Predictive models with good clinically reliability have yet to be defined, and are an important goal for the future development of telehealth in chronic respiratory conditions. New predictive models incorporating both symptoms and physiological signals are being tested in telemonitoring interventions with positive outcomes. However, the underpinning algorithms behind these models need be validated in larger samples of patients, for longer periods of time and with well-established protocols. In addition, further research is needed to identify novel predictors that enable the early detection of deteriorations, especially in COPD. Only then will telemonitoring achieve the aim of preventing hospital admissions, contributing to the reduction of health resource utilization and improving the quality of life of patients. PMID:27097638

  12. Petroleum system of the Gippsland Basin, Australia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bishop, Michele G.

    2000-01-01

    The Gippsland Basin Province 3930, located on the southeastern coast of Australia, is formed from two successive failed rifts that developed into a passive margin during the Cretaceous. Formation of this basin is related to the break up of Gondwana, which resulted in the separation of Antarctica from Australia, and the separation of the New Zealand and Lord Howe Rise continental crust from Australia. Coals and coaly shales of Late Cretaceous through Eocene age are the source rocks for oil and gas that accumulated predominantly in anticlinal traps. The basin was Australia?s major producing basin until 1996 when daily oil/condensate production from the North West Shelf surpassed it.

  13. Temporal overlap of humans and giant lizards (Varanidae; Squamata) in Pleistocene Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Gilbert J.; Louys, Julien; Cramb, Jonathan; Feng, Yue-xing; Zhao, Jian-xin; Hocknull, Scott A.; Webb, Gregory E.; Nguyen, Ai Duc; Joannes-Boyau, Renaud

    2015-10-01

    An obvious but key prerequisite to testing hypotheses concerning the role of humans in the extinction of late Quaternary 'megafauna' is demonstrating that humans and the extinct taxa overlapped, both temporally and spatially. In many regions, a paucity of reliably dated fossil occurrences of megafauna makes it challenging, if not impossible, to test many of the leading extinction hypotheses. The giant monitor lizards of Australia are a case in point. Despite commonly being argued to have suffered extinction at the hands of the first human colonisers (who arrived by 50 ka), it has never been reliably demonstrated that giant monitors and humans temporally overlapped in Australia. Here we present the results of an integrated U-Th and 14C dating study of a late Pleistocene fossil deposit that has yielded the youngest dated remains of giant monitor lizards in Australia. The site, Colosseum Chamber, is a cave deposit in the Mt Etna region, central eastern Australia. Sixteen new dates were generated and demonstrate that the bulk of the material in the deposit accumulated since ca. 50 ka. The new monitor fossil is, minimally, 30 ky younger than the previous youngest reliably dated record for giant lizards in Australia and for the first time, demonstrates that on a continental scale, humans and giant lizards overlapped in time. The new record brings the existing geochronological dataset for Australian giant monitor lizards to seven dated occurrences. With such sparse data, we are hesitant to argue that our new date represents the time of their extinction from the continent. Rather, we suspect that future fossil collecting will yield new samples both older and younger than 50 ka. Nevertheless, we unequivocally demonstrate that humans and giant monitor lizards overlapped temporally in Australia, and thus, humans can only now be considered potential drivers for their extinction.

  14. Monitoring of urinary L-type fatty acid-binding protein predicts histological severity of acute kidney injury.

    PubMed

    Negishi, Kousuke; Noiri, Eisei; Doi, Kent; Maeda-Mamiya, Rui; Sugaya, Takeshi; Portilla, Didier; Fujita, Toshiro

    2009-04-01

    The present study aimed to evaluate whether levels of urinary L-type fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP) could be used to monitor histological injury in acute kidney injury (AKI) induced by cis-platinum (CP) injection and ischemia reperfusion (IR). Different degrees of AKI severity were induced by several renal insults (CP dose and ischemia time) in human L-FABP transgenic mice. Renal histological injury scores increased with both CP dose and ischemic time. In CP-induced AKI, urinary L-FABP levels increased exponentially even in the lowest dose group as early as 2 hours, whereas blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels increased at 48 hours. In IR-induced AKI, BUN levels increased only in the 30-minute ischemia group 24 hours after reperfusion; however, urinary L-FABP levels increased more than 100-fold, even in the 5-minute ischemia group after 1 hour. In both AKI models, urinary L-FABP levels showed a better correlation with final histological injury scores and glomerular filtration rates measured by fluorescein isothiocyanate-labeled inulin injection than with levels of BUN and urinary N-acetyl-D-glucosaminidase, especially at earlier time points. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that urinary L-FABP was superior to other biomarkers for the detection of significant histological injuries and functional declines. In conclusion, urinary L-FABP levels are better suited to allow the accurate and earlier detection of both histological and functional insults in ischemic and nephrotoxin-induced AKI compared with conventional renal markers.

  15. Predictive modeling of the outcomes of chemotherapy-induced (febrile) neutropenia prophylaxis with biosimilar filgrastim (MONITOR-GCSF study)

    PubMed Central

    Aapro, M.; Ludwig, H.; Bokemeyer, C.; Gascón, P.; Boccadoro, M.; Denhaerynck, K.; Krendyukov, A.; Gorray, M.; MacDonald, K.; Abraham, I.

    2016-01-01

    Background Risk models of chemotherapy-induced (CIN) and febrile neutropenia (FN) have to date focused on determinants measured at the start of chemotherapy. We extended this static approach with a dynamic approach of CIN/FN risk modeling at the start of each cycle. Design We applied predictive modeling using multivariate logistic regression to identify determinants of CIN/FN episodes and related hospitalizations and chemotherapy disturbances (CIN/FN consequences) in analyses at the patient (‘ever’ during the whole period of chemotherapy) and cycle-level (during a given chemotherapy cycle). Statistical dependence of cycle data being ‘nested’ under patients was managed using generalized estimation equations. Predictive performance of each model was evaluated using bootstrapped c concordance statistics. Results Static patient-level risk models of ‘ever’ experiencing CIN/FN adverse events and consequences during a planned chemotherapy regimen included predictors related to history, risk factors, and prophylaxis initiation and intensity. Dynamic cycle-level risk models of experiencing CIN/FN adverse events and consequences in an upcoming cycle included predictors related to history, risk factors, and prophylaxis initiation and intensity; as well as prophylaxis duration, CIN/FN in prior cycle, and treatment center characteristics. Conclusion(s) These ‘real-world evidence’ models provide clinicians with the ability to anticipate CIN/FN adverse events and their consequences at the start of a chemotherapy line (static models); and, innovatively, to assess risk of CIN/FN adverse events and their consequences at the start of each cycle (dynamic models). This enables individualized patient treatment and is consistent with the EORTC recommendation to re-appraise CIN/FN risk at the start of each cycle. Prophylaxis intensity (under-, correctly-, or over-prophylacted relative to current EORTC guidelines) is a major determinant. Under-prophylaxis is clinically

  16. The rise of new psychoactive substance use in Australia.

    PubMed

    Burns, Lucy; Roxburgh, Amanda; Matthews, Allison; Bruno, Raimondo; Lenton, Simon; Van Buskirk, Joe

    2014-01-01

    New Psychoactive Substances are now a feature of Australia's recreational drug market. Little is known, however, about the prevalence of use, the characteristics of people who use them and the relationship between the NPS and ecstasy markets. This study examined the prevalence and correlates of NPS use amongst a group of regular ecstasy users in Australia. Participants were recruited if they had used ecstasy at least six times in the previous six months, lived in a capital city and were over 16 years of age. Purposive sampling was used, recruiting through universities and colleges, word of mouth and street press. 654 participants were recruited in 2013. Respondents who had used an NPS in the past six months were compared to those who had not. NPS were used by 44% of the total sample. In 2013 2C-I (14%) and 2C-B (8%) were the most prevalent NPS. Respondents in the NPS group were younger and reported more frequent use of more types of drugs. They were also more likely to rate the purity of ecstasy as low relative to those in the no NPS group. NPS are now an established part of Australia's recreational drug scene and NPS with hallucinogenic effects are now used most commonly. Monitoring systems need to develop capacity to monitor this highly dynamic market.

  17. Mining in the Alligator Rivers Region, northern Australia: assessing potential and actual effects on ecosystem and human health.

    PubMed

    van Dam, R A; Humphrey, C L; Martin, P

    2002-12-27

    This paper presents an overview of issues related to surface water contamination arising from uranium mining activities in the Alligator Rivers Region (ARR) of northern Australia, and a program of research and monitoring that must assess the potential and actual effects on ecosystem and human health. The program of assessing effects on aquatic ecosystems involves a four-tiered approach including the derivation of local water quality guideline trigger values, direct toxicity assessment of mine waters prior to their release, creekside or in situ monitoring for early warning of adverse effects during mine water release, and longer-term monitoring of macroinvertebrate and fish communities. Bioaccumulation in aquatic biota is also assessed, and is an issue of importance not only to ecosystem health, but also to the health of local Aboriginal people. The aquatic animals they consume represent potential sources of radiological dose, and as a result, a major component of the program to assess potential effects on human health is the prediction of doses to Aboriginal people living downstream of mining activities. Acknowledging the assumptions and uncertainties, the calculation of concentration factors for local aquatic (and other) food sources allows the prediction of potential radiological exposure to people following hypothetical mine water releases. The approaches described form the basis of best-practice protocols that are relevant at both regional and national levels.

  18. T Cell Receptor Excision Circle (TREC) Monitoring after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation; a Predictive Marker for Complications and Clinical Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Gaballa, Ahmed; Sundin, Mikael; Stikvoort, Arwen; Abumaree, Muhamed; Uzunel, Mehmet; Sairafi, Darius; Uhlin, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a well-established treatment modality for a variety of malignant diseases as well as for inborn errors of the metabolism or immune system. Regardless of disease origin, good clinical effects are dependent on proper immune reconstitution. T cells are responsible for both the beneficial graft-versus-leukemia (GVL) effect against malignant cells and protection against infections. The immune recovery of T cells relies initially on peripheral expansion of mature cells from the graft and later on the differentiation and maturation from donor-derived hematopoietic stem cells. The formation of new T cells occurs in the thymus and as a byproduct, T cell receptor excision circles (TRECs) are released upon rearrangement of the T cell receptor. Detection of TRECs by PCR is a reliable method for estimating the amount of newly formed T cells in the circulation and, indirectly, for estimating thymic function. Here, we discuss the role of TREC analysis in the prediction of clinical outcome after allogeneic HSCT. Due to the pivotal role of T cell reconstitution we propose that TREC analysis should be included as a key indicator in the post-HSCT follow-up. PMID:27727179

  19. The use of GIS for monitoring and predicting urban growth in east and west St Paul, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.

    PubMed

    Hathout, S

    2002-11-01

    Most urban growth in Canada occurs in the urban-rural fringe. The increasing dispersal of the Canadian urban population is due to centrifugal forces pulling urbanites past the suburbs into the surrounding exurban communities. Most Canadian urban centres are located on prime agricultural land. Exurban sprawl devours an inordinate amount of the better agricultural land. The growth around the city of Winnipeg is a case in point. Within Winnipeg's urban field are the rural municipalities of East and West St Paul. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of urban growth on the agricultural land of these RMs as well as the rate of urban growth in both Municipalities based on database analysis using aerial photographs taken in 1960 and 1989 and Geographic Information System (GIS). East St Paul was found to have a higher rate of urbanization (from 10.14% to 43.75%) between 1960 and 1989 than West St Paul (from 7.36% to 23.57%). The growth prediction using Markov probability chain analysis showed that East St Paul will henceforth experience a reduced rate of increase than West St Paul. The rate of urbanization for both RMs is found to be comparable with areas surrounding other major cities such as Toronto. The largest increases in urban land use categories occurred in and around the existing exurban settlements. It was found that most urbanization take place on the most fertile soil.

  20. Effect-Based Tools for Monitoring and Predicting the Ecotoxicological Effects of Chemicals in the Aquatic Environment

    PubMed Central

    Connon, Richard E.; Geist, Juergen; Werner, Inge

    2012-01-01

    Ecotoxicology faces the challenge of assessing and predicting the effects of an increasing number of chemical stressors on aquatic species and ecosystems. Herein we review currently applied tools in ecological risk assessment, combining information on exposure with expected biological effects or environmental water quality standards; currently applied effect-based tools are presented based on whether exposure occurs in a controlled laboratory environment or in the field. With increasing ecological relevance the reproducibility, specificity and thus suitability for standardisation of methods tends to diminish. We discuss the use of biomarkers in ecotoxicology including ecotoxicogenomics-based endpoints, which are becoming increasingly important for the detection of sublethal effects. Carefully selected sets of biomarkers allow an assessment of exposure to and effects of toxic chemicals, as well as the health status of organisms and, when combined with chemical analysis, identification of toxicant(s). The promising concept of “adverse outcome pathways (AOP)” links mechanistic responses on the cellular level with whole organism, population, community and potentially ecosystem effects and services. For most toxic mechanisms, however, practical application of AOPs will require more information and the identification of key links between responses, as well as key indicators, at different levels of biological organization, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. PMID:23112741

  1. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-01-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  2. Hammersley Range, northern Western Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    The oval shaped basin of the sedimentary rocks of the Hammersley Range, northern Western Australia (23.0S, 119.0E) dominates the center of this near nadir view. The Fortescue River is the remarkably straight, fault controlled feature bordering the Hammersley on the north. Sand dunes are the main surface features in the northeast and southwest. Many dry lakebeds can be seen to the east as light grey colored patches along the watercourses.

  3. Evolving telehealth reimbursement in Australia.

    PubMed

    Bursell, S-E; Zang, S; Keech, A C; Jenkins, A J

    2016-08-01

    Video-based consultation is the only telehealth service reimbursed by the Medicare Benefits Schedule in Australia, but the uptake of telehealth is still low and inconsistent. There is a clear need for the development of appropriate medical evidence to support implementation of telehealth services. With the ubiquitous use of mobile phones, mobile health becomes important in facilitating health services and impacting clinical outcomes anywhere. PMID:27553999

  4. Gosses Bluff impact structure, Australia.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Milton, D. J.; Barlow, B. C.; Brown, A. R.; Glikson, A. Y.; Manwaring, E. A.; Moss, F. J.; Sedmik, E. C. E.; Van Son, J.; Brett, R.; Young, G. A.

    1972-01-01

    A comprehensive study has been carried out of the Gosses Bluff structure in Central Australia, which is a typical cryptoexplosion structure. The study included detailed geologic mapping, and seismic reflection and refraction, gravity, aeromagnetic, and ground magnetic surveys. It is concluded that the structure is an eroded crater formed by a single nearly instantaneous shock event, and that the event can be explained only by impact.

  5. Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Along the coast of Queensland, Australia (18.0S, 147.5E), timbered foothills of the Great Dividing Range separate the semi-arid interior of Queensland from the farmlands of the coastal plains. Prominent cleared areas in the forest indicate deforestation for farm and pasture lands. Offshore, islands and the Great Barrier Reef display sand banks along the southern sides of the structures indicating a dominant southerly wind and current direction.

  6. Prediction of back-scatter radiations to a beam monitor chamber of medical linear accelerators by use of the digitized target-current-pulse analysis method.

    PubMed

    Suzuki, Yusuke; Hayashi, Naoki; Kato, Hideki; Fukuma, Hiroshi; Hirose, Yasujiro; Kawano, Makoto; Nishii, Yoshio; Nakamura, Masaru; Mukouyama, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    In small-field irradiation, the back-scattered radiation (BSR) affects the counts measured with a beam monitor chamber (BMC). In general, the effect of the BSR depends on the opened-jaw size. The effect is significantly large in small-field irradiation. Our purpose in this study was to predict the effect of BSR on LINAC output accurately with an improved target-current-pulse (TCP) technique. The pulse signals were measured with a system consisting of a personal computer and a digitizer. The pulse signals were analyzed with in-house software. The measured parameters were the number of pulses, the change in the waveform and the integrated signal values of the TCPs. The TCPs were measured for various field sizes with four linear accelerators. For comparison, Yu's method in which a universal counter was used was re-examined. The results showed that the variance of the measurements by the new method was reduced to approximately 1/10 of the variance by the previous method. There was no significant variation in the number of pulses due to a change in the field size in the Varian Clinac series. However, a change in the integrated signal value was observed. This tendency was different from the result of other investigations in the past. Our prediction method is able to define the cutoff voltage for the TCP acquired by digitizer. This functionality provides the capability of clearly classifying TCPs into signals and noise. In conclusion, our TCP analysis method can predict the effect of BSR on the BMC even for small-field irradiations.

  7. Canine rabies in Australia: a review of preparedness and research needs.

    PubMed

    Sparkes, J; Fleming, P J S; Ballard, G; Scott-Orr, H; Durr, S; Ward, M P

    2015-06-01

    Australia is unique as a populated continent in that canine rabies is exotic, with only one likely incursion in 1867. This is despite the presence of a widespread free-ranging dog population, which includes the naturalized dingo, feral domestic dogs and dingo-dog cross-breeds. To Australia's immediate north, rabies has recently spread within the Indonesian archipelago, with outbreaks occurring in historically free islands to the east including Bali, Flores, Ambon and the Tanimbar Islands. Australia depends on strict quarantine protocols to prevent importation of a rabid animal, but the risk of illegal animal movements by fishing and recreational vessels circumventing quarantine remains. Predicting where rabies will enter Australia is important, but understanding dog population dynamics and interactions, including contact rates in and around human populations, is essential for rabies preparedness. The interactions among and between Australia's large populations of wild, free-roaming and restrained domestic dogs require quantification for rabies incursions to be detected and controlled. The imminent risk of rabies breaching Australian borders makes the development of disease spread models that will assist in the deployment of cost-effective surveillance, improve preventive strategies and guide disease management protocols vitally important. Here, we critically review Australia's preparedness for rabies, discuss prevailing assumptions and models, identify knowledge deficits in free-roaming dog ecology relating to rabies maintenance and speculate on the likely consequences of endemic rabies for Australia.

  8. Canine rabies in Australia: a review of preparedness and research needs.

    PubMed

    Sparkes, J; Fleming, P J S; Ballard, G; Scott-Orr, H; Durr, S; Ward, M P

    2015-06-01

    Australia is unique as a populated continent in that canine rabies is exotic, with only one likely incursion in 1867. This is despite the presence of a widespread free-ranging dog population, which includes the naturalized dingo, feral domestic dogs and dingo-dog cross-breeds. To Australia's immediate north, rabies has recently spread within the Indonesian archipelago, with outbreaks occurring in historically free islands to the east including Bali, Flores, Ambon and the Tanimbar Islands. Australia depends on strict quarantine protocols to prevent importation of a rabid animal, but the risk of illegal animal movements by fishing and recreational vessels circumventing quarantine remains. Predicting where rabies will enter Australia is important, but understanding dog population dynamics and interactions, including contact rates in and around human populations, is essential for rabies preparedness. The interactions among and between Australia's large populations of wild, free-roaming and restrained domestic dogs require quantification for rabies incursions to be detected and controlled. The imminent risk of rabies breaching Australian borders makes the development of disease spread models that will assist in the deployment of cost-effective surveillance, improve preventive strategies and guide disease management protocols vitally important. Here, we critically review Australia's preparedness for rabies, discuss prevailing assumptions and models, identify knowledge deficits in free-roaming dog ecology relating to rabies maintenance and speculate on the likely consequences of endemic rabies for Australia. PMID:24934203

  9. The potential wind power resource in Australia: a new perspective.

    PubMed

    Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Australia's wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia's electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia's energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia's wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast's electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it's intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.

  10. The potential wind power resource in Australia: a new perspective.

    PubMed

    Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Australia's wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia's electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia's energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia's wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast's electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it's intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale. PMID:24988222

  11. Astronomy in Australia - A Brief Historical Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffleit, Dorrit

    2000-08-01

    An astronomical event, the transit of Venus at Tahiti in 1769, led to the discovery of Eastern Australia by Captain James Cook and its colonization by the English in 1788. Beginning that very year, an observatory was erected, and ever since, Australia has played significant roles throughout the history of astronomy. Now the modern optical observatories at Mount Stromlo and Siding Spring have become important and friendly centers of international cooperation in research. In modern radio astronomy, Australia has been an outstanding pioneer.

  12. Ten years of publicly funded biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in Australia.

    PubMed

    Hopkins, Ashley M; Proudman, Susanna M; Vitry, Agnes I; Sorich, Michael J; Cleland, Leslie G; Wiese, Michael D

    2016-02-01

    Biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment were among the first high-cost medicines to be subsidised in Australia. High-cost medicines pose several challenges to the Australian National Medicines Policy, which aims to provide timely access to effective medicines at a cost individuals and the community can afford. Thus, novel restriction criteria were developed to encourage cost-effective use of bDMARDs. Government expenditure on bDMARD subsidies for RA treatment grew to about $383 million in 2014. Evidence that initiation and continuation criteria for bDMARDs meet usually applied cost-benefit criteria is lacking. The combined expenditure on tocilizumab, certolizumab pegol and golimumab (added to the Australian Government's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme in 2010) was $93 million in 2014, which is 210% over the initial estimate. Present and future challenges with regard to bDMARDs for RA and other high-cost drugs include improved expenditure predictions, monitoring of cost-effectiveness in relation to actual use and strategic development, regulation and use of biosimilars. Ten years of documentation on clinical and laboratory findings indicating eligibility to initiate and continue on bDMARDs remains un-used. These data represent an untapped opportunity to promote quality of use of bDMARDs and biosimilars and to improve cost predictions for high-cost drugs.

  13. Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Australia and Germany. Australia Centre Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burke, Gerald, Ed.; Reuling, Jochen, Ed.

    This document contains 17 papers on vocational training and lifelong learning in Australia and Germany. The following papers are included: "Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Australia and Germany: Background" (Gerald Burke); "Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Australia: Observations and Conclusions from a German Perspective"…

  14. Immigration and unemployment in Australia.

    PubMed

    Tsokhas, K

    1994-01-01

    "This article is presented in two parts. The first contains a discussion of Australia's migration programme, its different categories and changes in intakes. It also deals with the contribution made by immigration to the size of the labour force.... The second part deals with the effect of immigration on the unemployment rate and concludes that its effect is negligible or, at best, slightly positive.... Against this background the paper discusses factors contributing to the employment and unemployment experience of migrants, for whom English language proficiency and the possession of recognized skills and qualifications are important in determining employability." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

  15. Australia's national mental health policy.

    PubMed

    Whiteford, H A

    1993-10-01

    In April 1992 the health ministers of all Australian states, territories, and the federal government endorsed Australia's first National Mental Health Policy. The major principles outlined in the policy include protecting consumers' rights, setting national service standards, mainstreaming mental health services with general health services, better integrating inpatient and community mental health services to ensure continuity of care, and linking mental health services and other social and disability services. A five-year National Mental Health Plan, accompanied by additional federal funding, has also been released, with time frames for implementing the policy in all states and territories and at the federal level. PMID:8225277

  16. [Mental health services in Australia].

    PubMed

    Kisely, Steve; Lesage, Alain

    2014-01-01

    Canada is 1.5 times the size of Australia. Australia's population of 20 million is located principally on the east coast. Like Canada, the Australia has a federal system of Government with 5 States and two territories. Each State and territory has its own legislation on mental health. The federal (Commonwealth) Government is responsible for health care planning. In addition, the federal Government subsidizes an insurance program (Medicare) that covers visits to specialists and family physicians, while provincial governments are involved in the provision of hospital care and community mental health services. The Commonwealth government also subsidises the cost of medication through the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. These funds are supplemented by private health insurance. Mental health costs account for 6.5 per cent of all health care costs. Primary care treats the majority of common psychological disorders such as anxiety or depression, while specialist mental health services concentrate on those with severe mental illness. There have been 4 national mental health plans since 1992 with the long term aims of promoting mental health, increasing the quality and responsiveness of services, and creating a consistent approach to mental health service system reform among Australian states and territories. These systematic cycles of planning have first allowed a shift from psychiatric hospitals to community services, from reliance on psychiatric hospitals as pivotal to psychiatric care system. Community care budgets have increased, but overall have decreased with money not following patients; but recent deployment of federally funded through Medicare access to psychotherapy by psychologists for common mental disorders in primary care have increased overall budget. Concerns remain that shift to youth first onset psychosis clinics may come from older long-term psychotic patients, a form of discrimination whilst evidence amount of excess mortality by cardio

  17. The MAGSAT project in Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    The first version of the MAGSAT selection and reduction software was completed as well as a major enhancement to support geomagnetic vector data selection and reduction. All MAGSAT data over an area between 90 E and 180 E and between 0 and 50 S were reduced. This area includes the Australasian region and surrounding oceans. Nearly 200 profiles across Australia satisfied the criteria for data. The reduced geomagnetic field inferred to be caused by sources within the lithosphere was interpreted. During reduction, magnetic effects caused by all other causes were eliminated. Some possible correlation with major tectonic structures and known continental scale heat flow anomalies were noted.

  18. [Mental health services in Australia].

    PubMed

    Kisely, Steve; Lesage, Alain

    2014-01-01

    Canada is 1.5 times the size of Australia. Australia's population of 20 million is located principally on the east coast. Like Canada, the Australia has a federal system of Government with 5 States and two territories. Each State and territory has its own legislation on mental health. The federal (Commonwealth) Government is responsible for health care planning. In addition, the federal Government subsidizes an insurance program (Medicare) that covers visits to specialists and family physicians, while provincial governments are involved in the provision of hospital care and community mental health services. The Commonwealth government also subsidises the cost of medication through the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. These funds are supplemented by private health insurance. Mental health costs account for 6.5 per cent of all health care costs. Primary care treats the majority of common psychological disorders such as anxiety or depression, while specialist mental health services concentrate on those with severe mental illness. There have been 4 national mental health plans since 1992 with the long term aims of promoting mental health, increasing the quality and responsiveness of services, and creating a consistent approach to mental health service system reform among Australian states and territories. These systematic cycles of planning have first allowed a shift from psychiatric hospitals to community services, from reliance on psychiatric hospitals as pivotal to psychiatric care system. Community care budgets have increased, but overall have decreased with money not following patients; but recent deployment of federally funded through Medicare access to psychotherapy by psychologists for common mental disorders in primary care have increased overall budget. Concerns remain that shift to youth first onset psychosis clinics may come from older long-term psychotic patients, a form of discrimination whilst evidence amount of excess mortality by cardio

  19. Significance of different carbon forms and carbonic anhydrase activity in monitoring and prediction of algal blooms in the urban section of Jialing River, Chongqing, China.

    PubMed

    Nie, Yudong; Zhang, Zhi; Shen, Qian; Gao, Wenjin; Li, Yingfan

    2016-05-18

    The Three Gorges Dam is one of the largest hydroelectric power plants worldwide; its reservoir was preliminarily impounded in 2003 and finally impounded to 175 m in 2012. The impoundment caused some environmental problems, such as algal blooms. Carbonic anhydrase (CA) is an important biocatalyst in the carbon utilization by algae and plays an important role in algal blooms. CA has received considerable attention for its role in red tides in oceans, but less investigation has been focused on its role in algal blooms in fresh water. In this study, the seasonal variation of water quality parameters, different carbon forms, carbonic anhydrase activity (CAA), and the algal cell density of four sampling sites in the urban section of the Jialing River were investigated from November 1, 2013 to October 31, 2014. Results indicated that CAA exhibited a positive correlation with dissoluble organic carbon (DOC), pH, and temperature, but a negative correlation with CO2 and dissoluble inorganic carbon (DIC). Algal cell density exhibited a positive correlation with flow velocity (V), pH, particulate organic carbon (POC), and CAA, a negative correlation with CO2, and a negative partial correlation with DIC. The relationship between CAA and algal cell density for the entire year can be described as cells = 23.278CAA - 42.666POC + 139.547pH - 1057.106. The algal bloom prediction model for the key control period can be described as cells = -45.895CAA + 776.103V- 29.523DOC + 14.219PIC + 35.060POC + 19.181 (2 weeks in advance) and cells = 69.200CAA + 203.213V + 4.184CO2 + 38.911DOC + 40.770POC - 189.567 (4 weeks in advance). The findings in this study demonstrate that the carbon utilization by algae is conducted by CA and provide a new method of monitoring algal cell density and predicting algal blooms.

  20. Significance of different carbon forms and carbonic anhydrase activity in monitoring and prediction of algal blooms in the urban section of Jialing River, Chongqing, China.

    PubMed

    Nie, Yudong; Zhang, Zhi; Shen, Qian; Gao, Wenjin; Li, Yingfan

    2016-05-18

    The Three Gorges Dam is one of the largest hydroelectric power plants worldwide; its reservoir was preliminarily impounded in 2003 and finally impounded to 175 m in 2012. The impoundment caused some environmental problems, such as algal blooms. Carbonic anhydrase (CA) is an important biocatalyst in the carbon utilization by algae and plays an important role in algal blooms. CA has received considerable attention for its role in red tides in oceans, but less investigation has been focused on its role in algal blooms in fresh water. In this study, the seasonal variation of water quality parameters, different carbon forms, carbonic anhydrase activity (CAA), and the algal cell density of four sampling sites in the urban section of the Jialing River were investigated from November 1, 2013 to October 31, 2014. Results indicated that CAA exhibited a positive correlation with dissoluble organic carbon (DOC), pH, and temperature, but a negative correlation with CO2 and dissoluble inorganic carbon (DIC). Algal cell density exhibited a positive correlation with flow velocity (V), pH, particulate organic carbon (POC), and CAA, a negative correlation with CO2, and a negative partial correlation with DIC. The relationship between CAA and algal cell density for the entire year can be described as cells = 23.278CAA - 42.666POC + 139.547pH - 1057.106. The algal bloom prediction model for the key control period can be described as cells = -45.895CAA + 776.103V- 29.523DOC + 14.219PIC + 35.060POC + 19.181 (2 weeks in advance) and cells = 69.200CAA + 203.213V + 4.184CO2 + 38.911DOC + 40.770POC - 189.567 (4 weeks in advance). The findings in this study demonstrate that the carbon utilization by algae is conducted by CA and provide a new method of monitoring algal cell density and predicting algal blooms. PMID:27142237

  1. Hydrocarbon-related diagenesis: The key to understanding trap integrity and hydrocarbon charge history in Australia`s Timor Sea?

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, G.W.; Woods, E.P.; Lisk, M.; Fellows, M.

    1996-12-31

    In the Late Miocene, the effects of continental collision partially to completely breached many charged, Mesozoic traps in Australia`s Timor Sea. An integrated geophysical and geochemical study has shown that the biodegradation of hydrocarbons leaking from these Mesozoic traps produced hydrocarbon-related diagenetic zones or HRDZs within overlying, Eocene aquifer sands. These HRDZs, which are principally defined by zones of intense carbonate cementation, are seismically-resolvable, with both their size and velocity being directly related to the amount of hydrocarbons that have passed through the aquifer sands. Consequently, the integration of observations on the seismic, velocity and isotopic characteristics of the HRDZs, the nature of present-day hydrocarbon seepage (as defined by sniffer and ALF data), and geometric relationships between the reactivation (Miocene) and trap (Jurassic) fault geometries, can provide a powerful predictive tool for evaluating and ranking undrilled structures and prospects within the Timor Sea.

  2. Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penn, Ray

    1993-01-01

    Presents an annotated bibliography of 25 items published by the Australian Government Publications Service in 1992-93 that deal with a wide variety of issues, including trade performance, indigenous Australians, multiculturalism, the environment, aging, privacy versus law enforcement, urban life, health, violence against women, cultural tourism,…

  3. Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Happel, Sue

    Designed for intermediate grade students, this 4-week unit contains 11 lessons on Australian culture and geography. Topics covered are: the map, history, geography, climate, economy, people, education, religion, recreation, government, cities, transportation, communication, wildlife, and plantlife. Each lesson includes text and questions on the…

  4. Examining the Evidence from TIMSS: Gender Differences in Year 8 Science Achievement in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomson, Sue

    2008-01-01

    Australia's continuing participation in international science studies such as TIMSS provides a useful lens through which to monitor achievement in science over time. Gender differences in science were not evident in the early years of TIMSS but appear to be growing. This article examines gender differences in science achievement in early secondary…

  5. Treatment Success in Trypanosoma cruzi Infection Is Predicted by Early Changes in Serially Monitored Parasite-Specific T and B Cell Responses

    PubMed Central

    Cooley, Gretchen; Albareda, María C.; Viotti, Rodolfo; Perez-Mazliah, Damián E.; Lococo, Bruno; Castro Eiro, Melisa; Laucella, Susana A.; Tarleton, Rick L.

    2016-01-01

    Background Chagas disease is the highest impact parasitic disease in Latin America. We have proposed that changes in Trypanosoma cruzi-specific immune responses might serve as surrogate indicators of treatment success. Herein, we addressed in a long-term follow-up study whether cure achieved after treatment can be predicted by changes in non-conventional indexes of anti-parasite serological and T cell activities. Methodology/Principal Findings T. cruzi-specific T cell responses, as measured by interferon-γ ELISPOT and T. cruzi-specific antibodies assessed by ELISA, hemagglutination and immunofluorescence tests as well as by a multiplex assay incorporating 14 recombinant T. cruzi proteins were measured in 33 patients at 48–150 months post-benznidazole treatment. Cure — as assessed by conventional serological tests — was associated with an early decline in T. cruzi-specific IFN-γ-producing T cells and in antibody titers measured by the multiplex serological assay. Changes in the functional status and potential of T. cruzi-specific T cells, indicative of reduced antigen stimulation, provided further evidence of parasitological cure following benznidazole treatment. Patients showing a significant reduction in T. cruzi-specific antibodies had higher pre-therapy levels of T. cruzi-specific IFN-γ- producing T cells compared to those with unaltered humoral responses post-treatment. Conclusions/Significance Monitoring of appropriate immunological responses can provide earlier and robust measures of treatment success in T. cruzi infection. PMID:27128444

  6. Policy and Indigenous Languages in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKay, Graham

    2011-01-01

    The use of Indigenous languages has been declining over the period of non-Aboriginal settlement in Australia as a result of repressive policies, both explicit and implicit. The National Policy on Languages (Lo Bianco, 1987) was the high point of language policy in Australia, given its national scope and status and its attempt to encompass all…

  7. Favorable conditions noted for Australia shale oil

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-09-01

    After brief descriptions of the Rundle, Condor, and Stuart/Kerosene Creek oil shale projects in Queensland, the competitive advantages of oil shale development and the state and federal governments' attitudes towards an oil shale industry in Australia are discussed. It is concluded that Australia is the ideal country in which to start an oil shale industry.

  8. Focus on: Hendra virus in Australia.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Kristopher

    2014-11-29

    Cases of Hendra virus infection in horses in Australia have been seen regularly since the virus was first isolated in 1994. Kristopher Hughes, associate professor of equine medicine at Charles Sturt University in Australia, gives an overview of how knowledge of the virus has developed in the past 20 years.

  9. National Report on Schooling in Australia, 1991.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Australian Education Council, Melbourne.

    This report provides information about the schooling of over three million students in approximately 10,000 schools in Australia's eight states and territories during 1991. Chapter 1 describes the Australian Education Council and offers a national overview of schooling in Australia including the structure of schooling and how to achieve and…

  10. Rainfall-runoff modelling in northern Australia: A guide to modelling strategies in the tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petheram, C.; Rustomji, P.; Chiew, F. H. S.; Vleeshouwer, J.

    2012-09-01

    SummaryA prolonged drought across southern Australia has led to renewed interest in water resource development of northern Australia, and to increased demand for runoff predictions from ungauged catchments in Australia's tropics. In contrast to more temperate settings where there is a plethora of rainfall-runoff modelling studies, the world's tropical regions, including those of Australia, have received little attention and thus the predictive skill of various rainfall-runoff models and methods in tropical basins is less known. Using data from 105 catchments in tropical Australia, five daily rainfall-runoff models and three methods of regionalising model parameters were compared. When locally calibrated, the more complex rainfall-runoff models performed best. However, when the models were used to predict streamflow in 'ungauged' catchments the differences in model performance was negligible. The adoption of multiple criteria to select an optimal parameter set resulted in an improved ability to simulate low-flows with no loss in predictive capacity for higher flows. An 'informed' transposition of parameter sets from gauged to ungauged catchments was better than random assignment of intact parameter sets for medium to high-flows, but not for low-flows. Assigning model parameters on the basis of spatial proximity outperformed physical similarity methods, particular with respect to model bias. The use of spatially distributed rainfall data did not improve model performance over the use of catchment average rainfall data. When models were locally calibrated there was a weak inverse correlation between catchment area and model performance. However, constraining donor-target parameter allocation by similar catchment area did not improve predictive capability in ungauged catchments. Although model performance was not as good as that reported for southern Australia and other temperate regions of the world, this study confirmed that modelling strategies similar to those

  11. Understanding extreme rainfall events in Australia through historical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashcroft, Linden; Karoly, David John

    2016-04-01

    Historical climate data recovery is still an emerging field in the Australian region. The majority of Australia's instrumental climate analyses begin in 1900 for rainfall and 1910 for temperature, particularly those focussed on extreme event analysis. This data sparsity for the past in turn limits our understanding of long-term climate variability, constraining efforts to predict the impact of future climate change. To address this need for improved historical data in Australia, a new network of recovered climate observations has recently been developed, centred on the highly populated southeastern Australian region (Ashcroft et al., 2014a, 2014b). The dataset includes observations from more than 39 published and unpublished sources and extends from British settlement in 1788 to the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 1908. Many of these historical sources provide daily temperature and rainfall information, providing an opportunity to improve understanding of the multidecadal variability of Australia's extreme events. In this study we combine the historical data for three major Australian cities - Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide - with modern observations to examine extreme rainfall variability over the past 174 years (1839-2013). We first explore two case studies, combining instrumental and documentary evidence to support the occurrence of severe storms in Sydney in 1841 and 1844. These events appear to be at least as extreme as Sydney's modern 24-hour rainfall record. Next we use a suite of rainfall indices to assess the long-term variability of rainfall in southeastern Australia. In particular, we focus on the stationarity of the teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and extreme rainfall events. Using ENSO reconstructions derived from both palaeoclimatic and documentary sources, we determine the historical relationship between extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia and ENSO, and examine whether or not this

  12. The Protective Function of Meaning of Life on Life Satisfaction among Chinese Students in Australia and Hong Kong: A Cross-Cultural Comparative Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pan, Jia-Yan; Wong, Daniel Fu Keung; Joubert, Lynette; Chan, Cecilia Lai Wan

    2008-01-01

    Objective: The authors compared the predictive effects of acculturative stressors and meaning of life on life satisfaction between Chinese students in Australia and in Hong Kong. Participants: In 2006, the researchers recruited 606 Chinese students studying abroad at the University of Melbourne in Australia and at 6 universities in Hong Kong.…

  13. The remittances of migrant Tongan and Samoan nurses from Australia

    PubMed Central

    Connell, John; Brown, Richard PC

    2004-01-01

    Background Migration and remittances are of considerable importance in the small Pacific island states. There has been a significant migration of skilled health workers in recent decades to metropolitan fringe states, including Australia and New Zealand. This paper reports the findings of a re-analysis of survey of Samoan and Tongan migrants in Australia where the sample is split between nurse households and others. Methods The study analyzes the survey data with a view to comparing the remittance behaviour and determinants of remittances for nurses and other migrant households, using both descriptive, cross-tabulations and appropriate econometric methods. Results It is found that a significantly higher proportion of nurse households sent remittances home, and, on average remitted more. Remittances of nurse households did not decline significantly over time contrary to what has generally been predicted. This was in contrast to other migrant households in the sample, for whom remittances showed a sharp decline after 15 years absence. Remittances contribute much more to the income of migrant sending countries, than the cost of the additional human capital in nurse training. Conclusions Given the shortage of nurses in Australia and New Zealand, and therefore the high demand for immigrant nurses, investment by Pacific island governments and families in nurse training constitutes a rational use of economic resources. Policies encouraging investment in home countries may be more effective than policies directly discouraging brain drain in contributing to national development. PMID:15078577

  14. Artificial ultraviolet radiation and ocular melanoma in Australia.

    PubMed

    Vajdic, Claire M; Kricker, Anne; Giblin, Michael; McKenzie, John; Aitken, Joanne F; Giles, Graham G; Armstrong, Bruce K

    2004-12-10

    We examined risk of ocular melanoma with exposure to artificial sources of exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in a population-based epidemiologic study of 290 cases of ocular melanoma and 893 controls aged 18-79 years in Australia in 1996-1998. Cases were identified through a prospective survey of all ophthalmologists and cancer registries in Australia; 91.8% participated. Controls were sourced from electoral rolls; 67.4% of those who were eligible and contactable participated, while 27.3% could not be contacted. Exposure to welding and use of sunlamps, including sunbeds and tanning booths, was measured by telephone interview. Analyses used unconditional logistic regression and included age, sex, region of birth, eye color, ocular and cutaneous sun sensitivity and personal sun exposure as covariates. Risk of choroid and ciliary body melanoma in 246 cases increased significantly with longer duration of use of sunlamps, first use before 21 years of age and first use after 1980. These effects were independent of personal sun exposure. Risk of these melanomas also increased with increasing duration of welding exposure, although the trend was not significant overall. There was no evidence that these exposures increased the risk of iris (n = 25) or conjunctival (n = 19) melanomas. Personal exposure to sunlamps and welding predicts risk of choroid and ciliary body melanoma in Australia.

  15. Sound Symbolism in the Languages of Australia

    PubMed Central

    Haynie, Hannah; Bowern, Claire; LaPalombara, Hannah

    2014-01-01

    The notion that linguistic forms and meanings are related only by convention and not by any direct relationship between sounds and semantic concepts is a foundational principle of modern linguistics. Though the principle generally holds across the lexicon, systematic exceptions have been identified. These “sound symbolic” forms have been identified in lexical items and linguistic processes in many individual languages. This paper examines sound symbolism in the languages of Australia. We conduct a statistical investigation of the evidence for several common patterns of sound symbolism, using data from a sample of 120 languages. The patterns examined here include the association of meanings denoting “smallness” or “nearness” with front vowels or palatal consonants, and the association of meanings denoting “largeness” or “distance” with back vowels or velar consonants. Our results provide evidence for the expected associations of vowels and consonants with meanings of “smallness” and “proximity” in Australian languages. However, the patterns uncovered in this region are more complicated than predicted. Several sound-meaning relationships are only significant for segments in prominent positions in the word, and the prevailing mapping between vowel quality and magnitude meaning cannot be characterized by a simple link between gradients of magnitude and vowel F2, contrary to the claims of previous studies. PMID:24752356

  16. Sound symbolism in the languages of Australia.

    PubMed

    Haynie, Hannah; Bowern, Claire; Lapalombara, Hannah

    2014-01-01

    The notion that linguistic forms and meanings are related only by convention and not by any direct relationship between sounds and semantic concepts is a foundational principle of modern linguistics. Though the principle generally holds across the lexicon, systematic exceptions have been identified. These "sound symbolic" forms have been identified in lexical items and linguistic processes in many individual languages. This paper examines sound symbolism in the languages of Australia. We conduct a statistical investigation of the evidence for several common patterns of sound symbolism, using data from a sample of 120 languages. The patterns examined here include the association of meanings denoting "smallness" or "nearness" with front vowels or palatal consonants, and the association of meanings denoting "largeness" or "distance" with back vowels or velar consonants. Our results provide evidence for the expected associations of vowels and consonants with meanings of "smallness" and "proximity" in Australian languages. However, the patterns uncovered in this region are more complicated than predicted. Several sound-meaning relationships are only significant for segments in prominent positions in the word, and the prevailing mapping between vowel quality and magnitude meaning cannot be characterized by a simple link between gradients of magnitude and vowel F2, contrary to the claims of previous studies.

  17. The Efficacy of Intraoperative Neurophysiological Monitoring Using Transcranial Electrically Stimulated Muscle-evoked Potentials (TcE-MsEPs) for Predicting Postoperative Segmental Upper Extremity Motor Paresis After Cervical Laminoplasty

    PubMed Central

    Manabe, Hideki; Izumi, Bunichiro; Tanaka, Hiroyuki; Kawai, Kazumi; Tanaka, Nobuhiro

    2016-01-01

    Study Design: Prospective study. Objective: To investigate the efficacy of transcranial electrically stimulated muscle-evoked potentials (TcE-MsEPs) for predicting postoperative segmental upper extremity palsy following cervical laminoplasty. Summary of Background Data: Postoperative segmental upper extremity palsy, especially in the deltoid and biceps (so-called C5 palsy), is the most common complication following cervical laminoplasty. Some papers have reported that postoperative C5 palsy cannot be predicted by TcE-MsEPs, although others have reported that it can be predicted. Methods: This study included 160 consecutive cases that underwent open-door laminoplasty, and TcE-MsEP monitoring was performed in the biceps brachii, triceps brachii, abductor digiti minimi, tibialis anterior, and abductor hallucis. A >50% decrease in the wave amplitude was defined as an alarm point. According to the monitoring alarm, interventions were performed, which include steroid administration, foraminotomies, etc. Results: Postoperative deltoid and biceps palsy occurred in 5 cases. Among the 155 cases without segmental upper extremity palsy, there were no monitoring alarms. Among the 5 deltoid and biceps palsy cases, 3 had significant wave amplitude decreases in the biceps during surgery, and palsy occurred when the patients awoke from anesthesia (acute type). In the other 2 cases in which the palsy occurred 2 days after the operation (delayed type), there were no significant wave decreases. In all of the cases, the palsy was completely resolved within 6 months. Discussion: The majority of C5 palsies have been reported to occur several days after surgery, but some of them have been reported to occur immediately after surgery. Our results demonstrated that TcE-MsEPs can predict the acute type, whereas the delayed type cannot be predicted. Conclusions: A >50% wave amplitude decrease in the biceps is useful to predict acute-type segmental upper extremity palsy. Further examination

  18. Data Quality Monitoring in Clinical Trials: Has It Been Worth It? An Evaluation and Prediction of the Future by All Stakeholders

    PubMed Central

    Kalali, Amir; West, Mark; Walling, David; Hilt, Dana; Engelhardt, Nina; Alphs, Larry; Loebel, Antony; Vanover, Kim; Atkinson, Sarah; Opler, Mark; Sachs, Gary; Nations, Kari; Brady, Chris

    2016-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of the CNS Summit Data Quality Monitoring Workgroup analysis of current data quality monitoring techniques used in central nervous system (CNS) clinical trials. Based on audience polls conducted at the CNS Summit 2014, the panel determined that current techniques used to monitor data and quality in clinical trials are broad, uncontrolled, and lack independent verification. The majority of those polled endorse the value of monitoring data. Case examples of current data quality methodology are presented and discussed. Perspectives of pharmaceutical companies and trial sites regarding data quality monitoring are presented. Potential future developments in CNS data quality monitoring are described. Increased utilization of biomarkers as objective outcomes and for patient selection is considered to be the most impactful development in data quality monitoring over the next 10 years. Additional future outcome measures and patient selection approaches are discussed. PMID:27413584

  19. Data Quality Monitoring in Clinical Trials: Has It Been Worth It? An Evaluation and Prediction of the Future by All Stakeholders.

    PubMed

    Daniel, David; Kalali, Amir; West, Mark; Walling, David; Hilt, Dana; Engelhardt, Nina; Alphs, Larry; Loebel, Antony; Vanover, Kim; Atkinson, Sarah; Opler, Mark; Sachs, Gary; Nations, Kari; Brady, Chris

    2016-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of the CNS Summit Data Quality Monitoring Workgroup analysis of current data quality monitoring techniques used in central nervous system (CNS) clinical trials. Based on audience polls conducted at the CNS Summit 2014, the panel determined that current techniques used to monitor data and quality in clinical trials are broad, uncontrolled, and lack independent verification. The majority of those polled endorse the value of monitoring data. Case examples of current data quality methodology are presented and discussed. Perspectives of pharmaceutical companies and trial sites regarding data quality monitoring are presented. Potential future developments in CNS data quality monitoring are described. Increased utilization of biomarkers as objective outcomes and for patient selection is considered to be the most impactful development in data quality monitoring over the next 10 years. Additional future outcome measures and patient selection approaches are discussed.

  20. National space program in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brennan, G. M.

    1992-11-01

    An overview of the Australian space activity history and present status is presented in the following aspects: (1) full-scale space activities since the establishment of the Australian Space Board in 1987 and the start of governmental budgetary support to national space program; (2) cooperation with NASA and ESA through satellite ground stations in satellite communication and ground support; (3) Australian private enterprises contract to provide launch support for INTERSAT and other satellites and schedule to start mobile satellite communication all over the country; and (4) supporting the second ground station construction to facilitate acquisition of the southern Pacific Ocean data of the wide area covering from the end of Antarctic continent to the eastern end of New Zealand. The remote sensing equipment development, launch service business plan, present status of supersonic technology in Australia and Australian space policy are outlined.

  1. Radar Meteor Observations in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elford, W. G.

    1993-01-01

    During the last decade extensive meteor studies have been carried out in Australia using radio systems operating at frequencies between 2 and 30 MHz. Part of this program has been a deliberate effort to detect meteors above the "echo ceiling" of about 105 km associated with radars operating above 30 MHz. In fact the echo ceiling has been raised to 140 km with a dramatic increase in meteor flux [1]. The other aspect of these studies has been the use a low frequency (6-30MHz) surveillance radar to detect and record meteors over the horizon, using backscatter via ionospheric F-region. The power of the radar is such that the micrometeoroid limit is being approached [2]. The surveillance radar has confirmed the new estimates of meteor flux and extended to a mass limit of 0.2 microgram.

  2. Skin cancer prevention in Australia.

    PubMed

    Sinclair, C; Foley, P

    2009-11-01

    Australia has one of the highest skin cancer incidence and mortality rates in the world. The reason for these high rates is due in part to the high ambient UV radiation levels, combined with a predominantly susceptible fair-skinned population. To address this problem, since 1980 Australians have been exposed to social marketing campaigns to raise awareness of skin cancer prevention. These campaigns have used mass media alongside interventions in schools, workplaces, and in community and leisure settings to motivate sun protective behaviour. As a result of these interventions it can be demonstrated that social marketing campaigns can be a very effective method to not only motivate behaviour change, reduce sunburn, and increase awareness but more importantly, reduce melanoma rates and bring positive economic returns to government. However long term investment in this area is required otherwise any population gains in behaviour are very likely to be quickly eroded. PMID:19775367

  3. Evaluation of the anti-HER2 C6.5 diabody as a PET radiotracer to monitor HER2 status and predict response to trastuzumab treatment

    PubMed Central

    Reddy, Smitha; Shaller, Calvin C.; Doss, Mohan; Shchaveleva, Irina; Marks, James D.; Yu, Jian Q.; Robinson, Matthew K.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The rapid tumor targeting and pharmacokinetic properties of engineered antibodies make them potentially suitable for use in imaging strategies to predict and monitor response to targeted therapies. This study aims to evaluate C6.5 diabody (C6.5db), a non-covalent anti-HER2 single chain-Fv dimer, as a radiotracer for predicting response to HER2-targeted therapies such as trastuzumab. Experimental Design Immunodeficient mice bearing established HER2-positive tumor xenografts were injected with radioiodinated C6.5db and imaged using PET/CT. Radiotracer biodistribution was quantified using biopsied tumor and normal tissues. Potential competition between trastuzumab and C6.5db was examined in vitro by flow cytometry and co-immunoprecipitations. Results Biodistribution analysis of mice bearing xenografts with varying HER2 density revealed that the tumor uptake of 125I-C6.5db correlates with HER2 tumor density. In vitro competition experiments suggest that the C6.5db targets an epitope on HER2 that is distinct from that bound by trastuzumab. Treatment of SK-OV-3-tumored mice with trastuzumab for 3 d caused a 42% (P=0.002) decrease in tumor uptake of 125I-C6.5db. This is consistent with a dramatic decrease in the tumor PET signal of 124I-C6.5db after trastuzumab treatment. Furthermore, BT-474-tumored mice showed a ∼60% decrease (P=0.0026) in C6.5db uptake after 6 d of trastuzumab treatment. Immunohistochemistry of excised xenograft sections and in vitro flow cytometry revealed that the decreased C6.5db uptake upon trastuzumab treatment is not associated with HER2 downregulation. Conclusions These studies suggest that 124I-C6.5db-based imaging can be used to evaluate HER2 levels as a predictor of respone to HER2-directed therapies. PMID:21177408

  4. Differences in grass pollen allergen exposure across Australia

    PubMed Central

    Beggs, Paul J.; Katelaris, Constance H.; Medek, Danielle; Johnston, Fay H.; Burton, Pamela K.; Campbell, Bradley; Jaggard, Alison K.; Vicendese, Don; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Godwin, Ian; Huete, Alfredo R.; Erbas, Bircan; Green, Brett J.; Newnham, Rewi M.; Newbigin, Ed; Haberle, Simon G.; Davies, Janet M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma are important chronic diseases posing serious public health issues in Australia with associated medical, economic, and societal burdens. Pollen are significant sources of clinically relevant outdoor aeroallergens, recognised as both a major trigger for, and cause of, allergic respiratory diseases. This study aimed to provide a national, and indeed international, perspective on the state of Australian pollen data using a large representative sample. Methods Atmospheric grass pollen concentration is examined over a number of years within the period 1995 to 2013 for Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne, and Sydney, including determination of the ‘clinical’ grass pollen season and grass pollen peak. Results The results of this study describe, for the first time, a striking spatial and temporal variability in grass pollen seasons in Australia, with important implications for clinicians and public health professionals, and the Australian grass pollen-allergic community. Conclusions These results demonstrate that static pollen calendars are of limited utility and in some cases misleading. This study also highlights significant deficiencies and limitations in the existing Australian pollen monitoring and data. Implications Establishment of an Australian national pollen monitoring network would help facilitate advances in the clinical and public health management of the millions of Australians with asthma and allergic rhinitis. PMID:25648730

  5. Australia's TERN: Advancing Ecosystem Data Management in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phinn, S. R.; Christensen, R.; Guru, S.

    2013-12-01

    Globally, there is a consistent movement towards more open, collaborative and transparent science, where the publication and citation of data is considered standard practice. Australia's Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) is a national research infrastructure investment designed to support the ecosystem science community through all stages of the data lifecycle. TERN has developed and implemented a comprehensive network of ';hard' and ';soft' infrastructure that enables Australia's ecosystem scientists to collect, publish, store, share, discover and re-use data in ways not previously possible. The aim of this poster is to demonstrate how TERN has successfully delivered infrastructure that is enabling a significant cultural and practical shift in Australia's ecosystem science community towards consistent approaches for data collection, meta-data, data licensing, and data publishing. TERN enables multiple disciplines, within the ecosystem sciences to more effectively and efficiently collect, store and publish their data. A critical part of TERN's approach has been to build on existing data collection activities, networks and skilled people to enable further coordination and collaboration to build each data collection facility and coordinate data publishing. Data collection in TERN is through discipline based facilities, covering long term collection of: (1) systematic plot based measurements of vegetation structure, composition and faunal biodiversity; (2) instrumented towers making systematic measurements of solar, water and gas fluxes; and (3) satellite and airborne maps of biophysical properties of vegetation, soils and the atmosphere. Several other facilities collect and integrate environmental data to produce national products for fauna and vegetation surveys, soils and coastal data, as well as integrated or synthesised products for modelling applications. Data management, publishing and sharing in TERN are implemented through a tailored data

  6. An Assessment of Policies Guiding School Emergency Disaster Management for Students with Disabilities in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Helen Joanna; Pagliano, Paul; Brown, Lawrence; Tsey, Komla

    2012-01-01

    Recent weather-related disasters (i.e., floods, fires) impacting Australia may potentially increase in frequency and severity as a result of predicted climate variability. The dearth of literature pertaining to school emergency response planning for vulnerable students with disabilities (including those with intellectual disabilities) when such…

  7. Seasonal drivers of the epidemiology of arthropod-borne viruses in Australia.

    PubMed

    Geoghegan, Jemma L; Walker, Peter J; Duchemin, Jean-Bernard; Jeanne, Isabelle; Holmes, Edward C

    2014-11-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses are a major cause of emerging disease with significant public health and economic impacts. However, the factors that determine their activity and seasonality are not well understood. In Australia, a network of sentinel cattle herds is used to monitor the distribution of several such viruses and to define virus-free regions. Herein, we utilize these serological data to describe the seasonality, and its drivers, of three economically important animal arboviruses: bluetongue virus, Akabane virus and bovine ephemeral fever virus. Through epidemiological time-series analyses of sero-surveillance data of 180 sentinel herds between 2004-2012, we compared seasonal parameters across latitudes, ranging from the tropical north (-10°S) to the more temperate south (-40°S). This analysis revealed marked differences in seasonality between distinct geographic regions and climates: seasonality was most pronounced in southern regions and gradually decreased as latitude decreased toward the Equator. Further, we show that both the timing of epidemics and the average number of seroconversions have a strong geographical component, which likely reflect patterns of vector abundance through co-varying climatic factors, especially temperature and rainfall. Notably, despite their differences in biology, including insect vector species, all three viruses exhibited very similar seasonality. By revealing the factors that shape spatial and temporal distributions, our study provides a more complete understanding of arbovirus seasonality that will enable better risk predictions. PMID:25412443

  8. Seasonal Drivers of the Epidemiology of Arthropod-Borne Viruses in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Geoghegan, Jemma L.; Walker, Peter J.; Duchemin, Jean-Bernard; Jeanne, Isabelle; Holmes, Edward C.

    2014-01-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses are a major cause of emerging disease with significant public health and economic impacts. However, the factors that determine their activity and seasonality are not well understood. In Australia, a network of sentinel cattle herds is used to monitor the distribution of several such viruses and to define virus-free regions. Herein, we utilize these serological data to describe the seasonality, and its drivers, of three economically important animal arboviruses: bluetongue virus, Akabane virus and bovine ephemeral fever virus. Through epidemiological time-series analyses of sero-surveillance data of 180 sentinel herds between 2004–2012, we compared seasonal parameters across latitudes, ranging from the tropical north (−10°S) to the more temperate south (−40°S). This analysis revealed marked differences in seasonality between distinct geographic regions and climates: seasonality was most pronounced in southern regions and gradually decreased as latitude decreased toward the Equator. Further, we show that both the timing of epidemics and the average number of seroconversions have a strong geographical component, which likely reflect patterns of vector abundance through co-varying climatic factors, especially temperature and rainfall. Notably, despite their differences in biology, including insect vector species, all three viruses exhibited very similar seasonality. By revealing the factors that shape spatial and temporal distributions, our study provides a more complete understanding of arbovirus seasonality that will enable better risk predictions. PMID:25412443

  9. Limited sensitivity analysis of ARAIM availability for LPV-200 over Australia using real data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Mowafy, A.; Yang, C.

    2016-01-01

    Current availability of Advanced Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (ARAIM) for LPV-200 in aviation is experimentally investigated using real navigation data and GPS measurements collected at 60 stations across Australia. ARAIM algorithm and fault probabilities were first discussed. Availability sensitivity analysis due to changes in the elevation mask angle and the error model parameters URA, URE, and nominal biases for integrity and accuracy used for computation of the protection level is presented. It is shown that incorporation of other GNSS constellation with GPS in ARAIM is needed to achieve LPV-200 Australia wide. The inclusion of BeiDou with GPS at two tests sites in Western and Eastern Australia demonstrates the promising potential of achieving this goal.

  10. Making pregnancy safer in Australia: the importance of maternal death review.

    PubMed

    Kildea, Sue; Pollock, Wendy Elizabeth; Barclay, Lesley

    2008-04-01

    Australia is one of the safest countries in the world to birth. Because maternal deaths are rare, often the focus during pregnancy is on the well-being of the fetus. The relative safety of birth has fostered a shift in the focus of maternal health, from survival, to the model of care or the birth experience. Yet women still die in Australia as a result of child bearing and many of these deaths are associated with avoidable factors. The purpose of this paper is to outline the maternal death monitoring and review process in Australia and to present to clinicians the salient features of the most recently published Australian maternal death report. The notion of preventability and the potential for practice to have an effect on reducing maternal mortality are also discussed.

  11. Equity of health care in Australia.

    PubMed

    Lairson, D R; Hindson, P; Hauquitz, A

    1995-08-01

    This paper examines the equity characteristics of health care financing and delivery in Australia and compares its performance with recent findings on systems in Europe and the United States. Vertical equity of finance is evaluated with income and payment concentration indices derived from published survey data on taxes and expenditure by income decile. Horizontal equity of health care delivery is assessed with standardized expenditure concentration coefficients for three measures of health status and four types of health services, derived from household survey data on health care utilization, health status, income and demographics. Health cover is available to the entire population. Results show the financing system is slightly progressive despite the fact that 30% of payment comes from private sources, which are regressive. The equity index compares favorably to many European countries and is much better than the U.S. which has a regressive financing system. The Australian system fares less well in terms of equity of health care delivery. Several features favor privately insured higher income persons in use of health care and this is reflected, for some health status measures and types of service, in inequity favoring the better off. This contrasts with inequity favoring the less well off in many European countries and the U.S. This analysis provides a benchmark for monitoring the equity of the Australian system and provides information on the equity of a mixed private and public financing system that covers the entire population. This is relevant to the U.S. which is moving in this direction by extending private cover to the uninsured and to European countries that are increasing private sector involvement in health care financing. PMID:7481941

  12. Coral reproduction in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Gilmour, James; Speed, Conrad W; Babcock, Russ

    2016-01-01

    Larval production and recruitment underpin the maintenance of coral populations, but these early life history stages are vulnerable to extreme variation in physical conditions. Environmental managers aim to minimise human impacts during significant periods of larval production and recruitment on reefs, but doing so requires knowledge of the modes and timing of coral reproduction. Most corals are hermaphroditic or gonochoric, with a brooding or broadcast spawning mode of reproduction. Brooding corals are a significant component of some reefs and produce larvae over consecutive months. Broadcast spawning corals are more common and display considerable variation in their patterns of spawning among reefs. Highly synchronous spawning can occur on reefs around Australia, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef. On Australia's remote north-west coast there have been fewer studies of coral reproduction. The recent industrial expansion into these regions has facilitated research, but the associated data are often contained within confidential reports. Here we combine information in this grey-literature with that available publicly to update our knowledge of coral reproduction in WA, for tens of thousands of corals and hundreds of species from over a dozen reefs spanning 20° of latitude. We identified broad patterns in coral reproduction, but more detailed insights were hindered by biased sampling; most studies focused on species of Acropora sampled over a few months at several reefs. Within the existing data, there was a latitudinal gradient in spawning activity among seasons, with mass spawning during autumn occurring on all reefs (but the temperate south-west). Participation in a smaller, multi-specific spawning during spring decreased from approximately one quarter of corals on the Kimberley Oceanic reefs to little participation at Ningaloo. Within these seasons, spawning was concentrated in March and/or April, and October and/or November, depending on the timing of the

  13. Coral reproduction in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Gilmour, James; Speed, Conrad W; Babcock, Russ

    2016-01-01

    Larval production and recruitment underpin the maintenance of coral populations, but these early life history stages are vulnerable to extreme variation in physical conditions. Environmental managers aim to minimise human impacts during significant periods of larval production and recruitment on reefs, but doing so requires knowledge of the modes and timing of coral reproduction. Most corals are hermaphroditic or gonochoric, with a brooding or broadcast spawning mode of reproduction. Brooding corals are a significant component of some reefs and produce larvae over consecutive months. Broadcast spawning corals are more common and display considerable variation in their patterns of spawning among reefs. Highly synchronous spawning can occur on reefs around Australia, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef. On Australia's remote north-west coast there have been fewer studies of coral reproduction. The recent industrial expansion into these regions has facilitated research, but the associated data are often contained within confidential reports. Here we combine information in this grey-literature with that available publicly to update our knowledge of coral reproduction in WA, for tens of thousands of corals and hundreds of species from over a dozen reefs spanning 20° of latitude. We identified broad patterns in coral reproduction, but more detailed insights were hindered by biased sampling; most studies focused on species of Acropora sampled over a few months at several reefs. Within the existing data, there was a latitudinal gradient in spawning activity among seasons, with mass spawning during autumn occurring on all reefs (but the temperate south-west). Participation in a smaller, multi-specific spawning during spring decreased from approximately one quarter of corals on the Kimberley Oceanic reefs to little participation at Ningaloo. Within these seasons, spawning was concentrated in March and/or April, and October and/or November, depending on the timing of the

  14. Salt reduction in Australia: from advocacy to action

    PubMed Central

    Trieu, Kathy; Dunford, Elizabeth; Nowson, Caryl; Jolly, Kellie-Ann; Greenland, Rohan; Reimers, Jenny; Bolam, Bruce

    2015-01-01

    , both are voluntary and the extent of industry uptake is not yet clear. There is also no parallel public awareness campaign to try and influence consumer behaviour relating to salt and no agreed mechanism for monitoring national changes in salt intake. The Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth) has recently instigated a State-level partnership to advance action and will launch its strategy in 2015. Conclusions In conclusion, salt reduction activities are currently being implemented through a variety of different programs but additional efforts and more robust national monitoring mechanisms are required to ensure that Australia is on track to achieve the proposed 30% reduction in salt intake within the next decade. PMID:26090332

  15. Total Solar Eclipse Australia - Nov. 13, 2012

    NASA Video Gallery

    On Nov. 13, 2012, a narrow corridor in the southern hemisphere experienced a total solar eclipse. The corridor lay mostly over the ocean but also cut across the northern tip of Australia where both...

  16. The Goethe Institute with Implications for Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garrick, Natalie

    1976-01-01

    The work of the Goethe Institute in teaching German to foreigners and in fostering interest in German culture is described. The desirability of a change in attitude in Australia toward foreign language study is discussed. (RM)

  17. What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; England, Matthew H.; McIntosh, Peter C.; Meyers, Gary A.; Pook, Michael J.; Risbey, James S.; Gupta, Alexander Sen; Taschetto, Andréa S.

    2009-02-01

    Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living memory, the so-called ``Big Dry''. The ramifications for affected regions are dire, with acute water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying-out of two of Australia's major river systems and far-reaching ecosystem damage. Yet the drought's origins have remained elusive. For Southeast Australia, we show here that the ``Big Dry'' and other iconic 20th Century droughts, including the Federation Drought (1895-1902) and World War II drought (1937-1945), are driven by Indian Ocean variability, not Pacific Ocean conditions as traditionally assumed. Specifically, a conspicuous absence of Indian Ocean temperature conditions conducive to enhanced tropical moisture transport has deprived southeastern Australia of its normal rainfall quota. In the case of the ``Big Dry'', its unprecedented intensity is also related to recent higher temperatures.

  18. Epidemiology of malignant mesothelioma in Australia.

    PubMed

    Musk, A William; de Klerk, Nicholas H

    2004-08-01

    In Australia, consumption of asbestos peaked in about 1975 at around 70,000t per year--the majority being used for asbestos cement manufacture. Chrysotile, amphibole and crocidolite have all been mined in Australia and employment records from the single company which mined most of the crocidolite deposits at Wittenoom have formed the basis of an ongoing cohort mortality study of the workforce.

  19. Australia and the new reusable launch vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stalker, R. J.

    The new generation of reusable launch vehicles represented by ESA's Hermes and HOTOL, NASA's National Aerospace Plane, and the DFVLR's Saenger, promises to radically alter the economic basis of space flight by allowing such operations as the on-orbit servicing of satellites. Attention is presently drawn to the opportunities that arise for Australia's aerospace industry from the availability in Australia of two wind tunnel facilities capable of furnishing the requisite hypersonic aerothermodynamics testing capabilities for these vehicles' development.

  20. Monitoring microstructural evolution of alloy 617 with non-linear acoustics for remaining useful life prediction; multiaxial creep-fatigue and creep-ratcheting

    SciTech Connect

    Lissenden, Cliff; Hassan, Tasnin; Rangari, Vijaya

    2014-10-30

    The research built upon a prior investigation to develop a unified constitutive model for design-­by-­analysis of the intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) for a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) design of next generation nuclear plants (NGNPs). Model development requires a set of failure data from complex mechanical experiments to characterize the material behavior. Therefore uniaxial and multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting tests were conducted on the nickel-­base Alloy 617 at 850 and 950°C. The time dependence of material behavior, and the interaction of time dependent behavior (e.g., creep) with ratcheting, which is an increase in the cyclic mean strain under load-­controlled cycling, are major concerns for NGNP design. This research project aimed at characterizing the microstructure evolution mechanisms activated in Alloy 617 by mechanical loading and dwell times at elevated temperature. The acoustic harmonic generation method was researched for microstructural characterization. It is a nonlinear acoustics method with excellent potential for nondestructive evaluation, and even online continuous monitoring once high temperature sensors become available. It is unique because it has the ability to quantitatively characterize microstructural features well before macroscale defects (e.g., cracks) form. The nonlinear acoustics beta parameter was shown to correlate with microstructural evolution using a systematic approach to handle the complexity of multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting deformation. Mechanical testing was conducted to provide a full spectrum of data for: thermal aging, tensile creep, uniaxial fatigue, uniaxial creep-­fatigue, uniaxial creep-ratcheting, multiaxial creep-fatigue, and multiaxial creep-­ratcheting. Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Optical Microscopy were conducted to correlate the beta parameter with individual microstructure mechanisms. We researched

  1. Soil respiration dynamics under reduced rainfall in a eucalypt forest ecosystem in SE-Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinko-Najera, N.; Arndt, S. K.; Livesley, S. J.; Fest, B.

    2011-12-01

    Soil respiration is the major pathway by which CO2 is released from a forest ecosystem to the atmosphere. Hence it is a central part of the carbon balance and carbon sink strengths of forests. Soil respiration shows high spatial and temporal variability and is dependent on soil temperature and soil moisture. Its component fluxes are controlled by different carbon sources: decomposition of soil organic matter or litter (heterotrophic respiration) or allocation of assimilated carbon belowground (autotrophic respiration). As such, these processes may respond differently to environmental change. Heatwaves, fires and reduced rainfall are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity in south-eastern Australia. It is not clear how soil respiration processes will respond to this changing climate and the implications for Australia's forest carbon balance. Soil respiration has been measured under reduced rainfall treatments and control plots using closed-dynamic manual chambers linked to a Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometer in a temperate dry eucalypt forest. In addition soil greenhouse gas dynamics are monitored using automated chambers linked to a Fourier Transform Infra Red spectrometer. Forest net carbon exchange is determined using eddy-covariance measurements as part of a long-term ecosystem research project. This presentation focuses on data collected using manual chambers where soil respiration and its component heterotrophic (root exclusion), autotrophic (indirectly) and litter decomposition (indirectly) fluxes have been measured for 1.5 years with regards to their 1) spatial variability, 2) environmental drivers and 3) response to reduced rainfall (40%). First results show total soil respiration (TSR) decreased on average by 16% under reduced rainfall treatment and varied with season according to soil temperature with lowest rates during winter/autumn and highest rates during spring/summer. The contribution of heterotrophic respiration (RH) was on average 28% and

  2. Potential value of automated daily screening of cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator diagnostics for prediction of major cardiovascular events: results from Home-CARE (Home Monitoring in Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy) study

    PubMed Central

    Sack, Stefan; Wende, Christian Michael; Nägele, Herbert; Katz, Amos; Bauer, Wolfgang Rudolf; Barr, Craig Scott; Malinowski, Klaus; Schwacke, Harald; Leyva, Francisco; Proff, Jochen; Berdyshev, Sergey; Paul, Vincent

    2011-01-01

    Aim To investigate whether diagnostic data from implanted cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators (CRT-Ds) retrieved automatically at 24 h intervals via a Home Monitoring function can enable dynamic prediction of cardiovascular hospitalization and death. Methods and results Three hundred and seventy-seven heart failure patients received CRT-Ds with Home Monitoring option. Data on all deaths and hospitalizations due to cardiovascular reasons and Home Monitoring data were collected prospectively during 1-year follow-up to develop a predictive algorithm with a predefined specificity of 99.5%. Seven parameters were included in the algorithm: mean heart rate over 24 h, heart rate at rest, patient activity, frequency of ventricular extrasystoles, atrial–atrial intervals (heart rate variability), right ventricular pacing impedance, and painless shock impedance. The algorithm was developed using a 25-day monitoring window ending 3 days before hospitalization or death. While the retrospective sensitivities of the individual parameters ranged from 23.6 to 50.0%, the combination of all parameters was 65.4% sensitive in detecting cardiovascular hospitalizations and deaths with 99.5% specificity (corresponding to 1.83 false-positive detections per patient-year of follow-up). The estimated relative risk of an event was 7.15-fold higher after a positive predictor finding than after a negative predictor finding. Conclusion We developed an automated algorithm for dynamic prediction of cardiovascular events in patients treated with CRT-D devices capable of daily transmission of their diagnostic data via Home Monitoring. This tool may increase patients’ quality of life and reduce morbidity, mortality, and health economic burden, it now warrants prospective studies. ClinicalTrials.gov  NCT00376116. PMID:21852311

  3. Active Surveillance of Candidemia, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Slavin, Monica; Nguyen, Quoc; Marriott, Deborah; Playford, E. Geoffrey; Ellis, David; Sorrell, Tania

    2006-01-01

    Population-based surveillance for candidemia in Australia from 2001 to 2004 identified 1,095 cases. Annual overall and hospital-specific incidences were 1.81/100,000 and 0.21/1,000 separations (completed admissions), respectively. Predisposing factors included malignancy (32.1%), indwelling vascular catheters (72.6%), use of antimicrobial agents (77%), and surgery (37.1%). Of 919 episodes, 81.5% were inpatient healthcare associated (IHCA), 11.6% were outpatient healthcare associated (OHCA), and 6.9% were community acquired (CA). Concomitant illnesses and risk factors were similar in IHCA and OHCA candidemia. IHCA candidemia was associated with sepsis at diagnosis (p<0.001), death <30 days after infection (p<0.001), and prolonged hospital admission (p<0.001). Non–Candida albicans species (52.7%) caused 60.5% of cases acquired outside hospitals and 49.9% of IHCA candidemia (p = 0.02). The 30-day death rate was 27.7% in those >65 years of age. Adult critical care stay, sepsis syndrome, and corticosteroid therapy were associated with the greatest risk for death. Systematic epidemiologic studies that use standardized definitions for IHCA, OHCA, and CA candidemia are indicated. PMID:17176564

  4. Telemedicine in Australia. Recent developments.

    PubMed

    Crowe, B L; McDonald, I G

    1997-01-01

    There have been a number of important developments in Australia in the area of telemedicine. At the national level, the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Family and Community Affairs has been conducting the Inquiry into Health Information Management and Telemedicine. The Australian Health Ministers' Advisory Council has supported the establishment of a working party convened by the South Australian Health Commission to prepare a detailed report on issues relating to telemedicine. State governments have begun a number of telemedicine projects, including major initiatives in New South Wales and Victoria and the extensive development of telepsychiatry services in Queensland. Research activities in high-speed image transmission have been undertaken by the Australian Computing and Communications Institute and Telstra, and by the Australian Navy. The matter of the funding of both capital and recurrent costs of telemedicine services has not been resolved, and issues of security and privacy of medical information are subjects to discussion. The use of the Internet as a universal communications medium may provide opportunities for the expansion of telemedicine services, particularly in the area of continuing medical education. A need has been recognized for the coordinated evaluation of telemedicine services as cost-benefit considerations are seen to be very important.

  5. Return migration from Australia: a case study.

    PubMed

    Lukomskyj, O; Richards, P

    1986-09-01

    "The study investigates the departure from Australia of former settlers who arrived during the 1980 calendar year. The 1980 settler arrival cohort [consists] of 75,167 visaed migrants.... The study has three main aims: (i) to analyse departures from Australia of the 1980 settler arrival cohort with a view to gauging the success of Australia's immigration program in retaining settlers; (ii) to examine the retention rates of settlers with respect to characteristics...including age, sex, marital status, country of last residence, and settler eligibility category; and (iii) to consider implications of the findings." Australia's present immigration policy is discussed, previous research on return migration from Australia is summarized, and a detailed analysis of the departure data is presented. "This study found that by August 1984, 12.4 per cent of non-refugee settlers who arrived in Australia during 1980 had departed permanently but that only 0.6 per cent of the 1980 refugee cohort had done so." These figures represent a decline in immigrant departure rates since the 1960s and early 1970s. Small differences in departure rates by place of birth, age, and marital status, which may have demographic consequences if sustained over time, are noted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

  6. Dryland salinity in Western Australia: managing a changing water cycle.

    PubMed

    Taylor, R J; Hoxley, G

    2003-01-01

    Clearing of agricultural land has resulted in significant changes to the surface and groundwater hydrology. Currently about 10% of agricultural land in Western Australia is affected by dryland salinity and between a quarter and a third of the area is predicted to be lost to salinity before a new hydrological equilibrium is reached. This paper develops a general statement describing the changes to the surface and groundwater hydrology of the wheatbelt of Western Australia between preclearing, the year 2000 and into the future. For typical catchments in the wheatbelt it is estimated that average groundwater recharge and surface runoff have increased about tenfold when comparing the current hydrology to that preclearing. Saline groundwater discharge and flood volumes have also increased significantly. Saline groundwater discharge and associated salt load will probably double in the future in line with the predicted increase in the area of dryland salinity. In addition, future increases in the area of dryland salinity/permanent waterlogging will probably double the volumes in flood events and further increase surface runoff in average years. The outcomes of surface and groundwater management trials have been briefly described to estimate how the hydrology would be modified if the trials were implemented at a catchment scale. These results have been used to formulate possible integrated revegetation and drainage management strategies. The future hydrology and impacts with and without integrated management strategies have been compared. PMID:12793681

  7. Dryland salinity in Western Australia: managing a changing water cycle.

    PubMed

    Taylor, R J; Hoxley, G

    2003-01-01

    Clearing of agricultural land has resulted in significant changes to the surface and groundwater hydrology. Currently about 10% of agricultural land in Western Australia is affected by dryland salinity and between a quarter and a third of the area is predicted to be lost to salinity before a new hydrological equilibrium is reached. This paper develops a general statement describing the changes to the surface and groundwater hydrology of the wheatbelt of Western Australia between preclearing, the year 2000 and into the future. For typical catchments in the wheatbelt it is estimated that average groundwater recharge and surface runoff have increased about tenfold when comparing the current hydrology to that preclearing. Saline groundwater discharge and flood volumes have also increased significantly. Saline groundwater discharge and associated salt load will probably double in the future in line with the predicted increase in the area of dryland salinity. In addition, future increases in the area of dryland salinity/permanent waterlogging will probably double the volumes in flood events and further increase surface runoff in average years. The outcomes of surface and groundwater management trials have been briefly described to estimate how the hydrology would be modified if the trials were implemented at a catchment scale. These results have been used to formulate possible integrated revegetation and drainage management strategies. The future hydrology and impacts with and without integrated management strategies have been compared.

  8. Immigration in two federations: Canada and Australia.

    PubMed

    Atchison, J

    1988-03-01

    The need for increasingly widespread application of a policy or program, settlement, and multiculturalism is urgent in both Canada and Australia. For both countries there is a clear pattern of coalescence and divergence and the distinct growth of immigration as a federal function. While Australia has strengthened federal functions in a area of increasingly geo-political need, Canada is moving towards a looser model of federalism. By 1918 both countries were strengthening their federal functions in immigration as discussions within the British Empire on the recommendations of the 1917 Dominions Royal Commission took root. Both countries were interested in agricultural immigration and land settlement. The Great Depression caused a major reduction in population growth rates. From 1933-1948 Canada had a poor record of providing sanctuary for Jews. In Australia, however, Jewish voluntary agencies were aiding the reception of refugees by 1937. The 1st permanent embodiment of commonwealth jurisdiction over immigration was the establishment of an Immigration Branch within the Department of Interior around 1938. Australia needed extra population for defense. The major structural link between government and the immigrant communities was through the Good Neighbor Movement, which began on a nationwide basis in 1950. Both Canada and Australia are major receiving countries for refugees. In 1973 Australia reached the position of effective, practical nondiscrimination achieved by Canada in 1967. Prime Minister Trudeau's policy was multiculturalism within a framework of bilingualism. By 1978 Australia had a new federalism policy, which in all areas concerned with immigrants, refugees and ethnicity, rationalized resources allocation and imposed a political philosophy. The foci of multiculturalism in Australia are 1) community languages; 2) creation of a tolerant, non-discriminatory society; and 3) equity and participation. In 1978 Australia specified population replacement and

  9. Predicting biological effects of environmental mixtures using exposure:activity ratios (EAR) derived from US EPA’s ToxCast data: Retrospective application to chemical monitoring data

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chemical monitoring has been widely used in environmental surveillance to assess exposure to environmental contaminants which could represent potential hazards to exposed organisms. However, the ability to detect chemicals in the environment has rapidly outpaced assessment of pot...

  10. MaxEnt analysis of a water distribution network in Canberra, ACT, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waldrip, Steven H.; Niven, Robert K.; Abel, Markus; Schlegel, Michael; Noack, Bernd R.

    2015-01-01

    A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method is developed to infer the state of a pipe flow network, for situations in which there is insufficient information to form a closed equation set. This approach substantially extends existing deterministic methods for the analysis of engineered flow networks (e.g. Newton's method or the Hardy Cross scheme). The network is represented as an undirected graph structure, in which the uncertainty is represented by a continuous relative entropy on the space of internal and external flow rates. The head losses (potential differences) on the network are treated as dependent variables, using specified pipe-flow resistance functions. The entropy is maximised subject to "observable" constraints on the mean values of certain flow rates and/or potential differences, and also "physical" constraints arising from the frictional properties of each pipe and from Kirchhoff's nodal and loop laws. A numerical method is developed in Matlab for solution of the integral equation system, based on multidimensional quadrature. Several nonlinear resistance functions (e.g. power-law and Colebrook) are investigated, necessitating numerical solution of the implicit Lagrangian by a double iteration scheme. The method is applied to a 1123-node, 1140-pipe water distribution network for the suburb of Torrens in the Australian Capital Territory, Australia, using network data supplied by water authority ACTEW Corporation Limited. A number of different assumptions are explored, including various network geometric representations, prior probabilities and constraint settings, yielding useful predictions of network demand and performance. We also propose this methodology be used in conjunction with in-flow monitoring systems, to obtain better inferences of user consumption without large investments in monitoring equipment and maintenance.

  11. Measles surveillance in Victoria, Australia.

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yung-Hsuan J.; Andrews, Ross M.; Lambert, Stephen B.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Many countries are implementing measles elimination strategies. In Australia, the State of Victoria has conducted enhanced measles surveillance since 1997 using case interviews and home-based specimen collection for laboratory confirmation. We attempted to identify features of notified cases that would better target surveillance resources. METHODS: We retrospectively classified notifications received from 1998 to 2003 as having been received in an epidemic (one or more laboratory-confirmed cases) or an interepidemic period (no laboratory-confirmed cases). We labelled the first case notified in any epidemic period that was not laboratory-confirmed at the time of notification as a "sentinel case". To maximize detection of sentinel cases while minimizing the follow-up of eventually discarded notifications, we generated algorithms using sentinel cases and interepidemic notifications. FINDINGS: We identified 10 sentinel cases with 422 interepidemic notifications from 1281 Victorian notifications. Sentinel cases were more likely to report fever at rash onset (odds ratio (OR) 15.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) CI: 2.1-688.9), cough (OR 10.4, 95% CI: 1.4-456.7), conjunctivitis (OR 7.9, 95% CI: 1.8-39.1), or year of birth between 1968 and 1981 (OR 31.8, 95% CI: 6.7-162.3). Prospective application of an algorithm consisting of fever at rash onset or born between 1968 and 1981 in the review period would have detected all sentinel cases and avoided the need for enhanced follow-up of 162 of the 422 eventually discarded notifications. CONCLUSION: Elimination strategies should be refined to suit regional and local priorities. The prospective application of an algorithm in Victoria is likely to reduce enhanced measles surveillance resource use in interepidemic periods, while still detecting early cases during measles outbreaks. PMID:16501727

  12. Unlocking Australia's Language Potential. Profiles of 9 Key Languages in Australia. Volume 7: Japanese.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marriott, Helen; And Others

    The report on the status of Japanese language teaching in Australia gives a broad view of Japanese study and discusses current educational issues in some detail. An introductory chapter offers a brief overview of the history, objectives, and issues of Japanese language instruction in Australia. The second chapter details features of instructional…

  13. Modelling climate impact on water in Australia: issues, methods and uncertainty (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiew, F. H.

    2010-12-01

    Australia is going through a significant period of water reform. The increasing demand for water for cities, industries, irrigation and the environment, and the current prolonged drought in southern Australia and predictions of a drier future are putting immense pressure on water resources. The management challenge in Australia is compounded by the low runoff coefficient and high river flow variability in Australia compared to elsewhere in the world. To underpin water planning and management, several large modelling studies to assess historical and future water availability were recently completed. This paper will discuss the different methods that can be used to estimate future water availability. Simple rules of thumb based on climate elasticities of streamflow and Budyko-type energy and water balance equations can be used for data limited regions or where only mean annual estimates are required. More detailed studies will combine projections from global and regional climate models, methods to downscale climate model projections to catchment-scale climate series and hydrological models that properly consider potential changes in dominant hydrological processes in a warmer, drier and higher CO2 environment. This paper will show that the largest uncertainty in predicting future water availability is in the projections of regional climate, in particular rainfall. For example, there is little agreement between the different global climate models on the direction of change in rainfall in the northern half of continental Australia. However, over the highly populated and important agricultural regions of south-eastern Australia, a large majority of climate models indicate a drier future. The median result from hydrological modelling with future climate projections from more than 20 global climate models indicate that averaged across south-eastern Australia, there will be 10 percent less water (range of result from -30 percent to +10 percent) for a 1oC global warming

  14. Coarse particulate matter emissions from cattle feedlots in Australia.

    PubMed

    McGinn, S M; Flesch, T K; Chen, D; Crenna, B; Denmead, O T; Naylor, T; Rowell, D

    2010-01-01

    Open cattle feedlots are a source of air pollutants that include particular matter (PM). Over 24 h, exposure to ambient concentrations of 50 microg m(-3) of the coarse-sized fraction PM (aerodynamic diameter <10 microm [PM(10)]) is recognized as a health concern for humans. The objective of our study was to document PM(10) concentration and emissions at two cattle feedlots in Australia over several days in summer. Two automated samplers were used to monitor the background and in-feedlot PM(10) concentrations. At the in-feedlot location, the PM(10) emission was calculated using a dispersion model. Our measurements revealed that the 24-h PM(10) concentrations on some of the days approached or exceeded the health criteria threshold of 50 microg m(-3) used in Australia. A key factor responsible for the generation of PM(10) was the increased activity of cattle in the evening that coincided with peak concentrations of PM(10) (maximum, 792 microg m(-3)) between 1930 and 2000 h. Rain coincided with a severe decline in PM(10) concentration and emission. A dispersion model used in our study estimated the emission of PM(10) between 31 and 60 g animal(-1) d(-1). These data contribute to needed information on PM(10) associated with livestock to develop results-based environmental policy.

  15. Performance of APACHE III over time in Australia and New Zealand: a retrospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Paul, E; Bailey, M; Van Lint, A; Pilcher, V

    2012-11-01

    The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III-j model has been used for benchmarking intensive care unit (ICU) outcomes in Australia and New Zealand for over a decade. This study assessed performance of the APACHE III-j model in adult patients admitted to Australasian ICUs during a ten-year period. Data were extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database. Performance of APACHE III-j at different time points and within different age strata was evaluated by dividing the whole cohort into five 'two-year' groups. Calibration and discrimination were assessed by the Brier score, Hosmer-Lemeshow C and H statistics, Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR), Cox calibration regression, calibration curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model performance within diagnostic categories was evaluated. Between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2009, 558,585 ICU admissions which met inclusion criteria were included in the analysis. The mean (standard deviation) age was 60.8 (18.4) years and 58.3% were male. Overall observed mortality was 12.6%. The mean (standard deviation) APACHE III-j predicted mortality was 14.5% (21.8). Although discrimination (as measured by AUROC) was preserved over time, all other markers of model performance showed deterioration. There was a significant decrease in SMR in eight of ten most common diagnoses examined. This study demonstrates that performance of APACHE III-j model has deteriorated in Australasian hospitals and there is now a clear need for an updated modelling approach to improve mortality prediction, performance monitoring and quality of research undertaken in Australian and New Zealand ICUs.

  16. Interannual variability of solar energy generation in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davy, R.; Troccoli, A.

    2012-04-01

    Australia has an abundant solar energy resource that is likely to be used for energy generation on a large scale. Variable sources of electricity generation require knowledge of the nature of their variability at all time scales. This study examines the effect that El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have on solar radiation in Australia, in order to establish the role for seasonal forecasting of solar power. Calendar years are classified into their ENSO state using a sea surface temperature index. The ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalysis products are then used to estimate the effect of ENSO on global horizontal solar irradiance over the continent. A bootstrap technique is used to obtain confidence regions for the effect in both winter and summer. The main impact of ENSO occurs during winter over a large part of eastern Australia. Little impact was observed over the continent during summer. A similar analysis is conducted for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to ensure that the observed ENSO effect is not a manifestation of the IOD. This study indicates that the ENSO phenomenon may account for solar energy changes of more than 10% in some locations on a seasonal basis. We show that the solar radiation analysis is directly applicable to solar energy yield. Knowledge of this variability may influence the location of large solar generation plants. Also, there is a potential to predict solar energy a few months ahead by means of seasonal forecasting systems, which would help to assist with planning for electricity grid.

  17. Induced urinary crystal formation as an analytical strategy for the prediction and monitoring of urolithiasis and other metabolism-related disorders

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Crystal formation reflects the entire composition of the surrounding solution. In case of urolithiasis, induced crystal formation in native urine has led to the development of the Bonn-Risk-Index (BRI), a valuable tool to quantify an individual's risk of calcium oxalate urolithiasis. If the progression of a disease is associated with characteristic changes in the activities of urinary components, this leads to an altered urinary crystallisation capacity. Therefore, the results of induced urinary crystal formation can be used to detect and monitor any disease linked to the altered urinary composition. Since crystal formation inherently takes into account the entire urinary composition, the influence of the disease on individual urinary parameters does not have to be known in order to monitor the consequent pathologic alterations. In this paper, we review the background of urinary crystal formation analysis and describe its established application in urolithiasis monitoring as well as potential further fields of clinical application. PMID:25206937

  18. Coral reproduction in Western Australia

    PubMed Central

    Speed, Conrad W.; Babcock, Russ

    2016-01-01

    Larval production and recruitment underpin the maintenance of coral populations, but these early life history stages are vulnerable to extreme variation in physical conditions. Environmental managers aim to minimise human impacts during significant periods of larval production and recruitment on reefs, but doing so requires knowledge of the modes and timing of coral reproduction. Most corals are hermaphroditic or gonochoric, with a brooding or broadcast spawning mode of reproduction. Brooding corals are a significant component of some reefs and produce larvae over consecutive months. Broadcast spawning corals are more common and display considerable variation in their patterns of spawning among reefs. Highly synchronous spawning can occur on reefs around Australia, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef. On Australia’s remote north-west coast there have been fewer studies of coral reproduction. The recent industrial expansion into these regions has facilitated research, but the associated data are often contained within confidential reports. Here we combine information in this grey-literature with that available publicly to update our knowledge of coral reproduction in WA, for tens of thousands of corals and hundreds of species from over a dozen reefs spanning 20° of latitude. We identified broad patterns in coral reproduction, but more detailed insights were hindered by biased sampling; most studies focused on species of Acropora sampled over a few months at several reefs. Within the existing data, there was a latitudinal gradient in spawning activity among seasons, with mass spawning during autumn occurring on all reefs (but the temperate south-west). Participation in a smaller, multi-specific spawning during spring decreased from approximately one quarter of corals on the Kimberley Oceanic reefs to little participation at Ningaloo. Within these seasons, spawning was concentrated in March and/or April, and October and/or November, depending on the timing of

  19. Corneal fibropapillomatosis in green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) in Australia.

    PubMed

    Flint, M; Limpus, C J; Patterson-Kane, J C; Murray, P J; Mills, P C

    2010-05-01

    Chelonid corneal fibropapillomatosis has not previously been recorded in Australian waters. During 2008, 724 green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) were examined in Queensland, Australia at two sites, Moreton Bay (n=155) and Shoalwater Bay (n=569), during annual monitoring. In the same calendar year, 63 turtles were submitted from various sites in southern Queensland for post-mortem examination at the University of Queensland. Four of the 787 animals (0.5%) were found to have corneal fibropapillomas of varying size, with similar gross and microscopical features to those reported in other parts of the world. Two animals with corneal fibropapillomas also had cutaneous fibropapillomas. Clinical assessment indicated that these lesions had detrimental effects on the vision of the turtles and therefore their potential ability to source food, avoid predators and interact with conspecifics. Importantly, these findings represent an emergence of this manifestation of fibropapillomatosis in green sea turtle populations in the southern Pacific Ocean.

  20. The use of predictive microbiology by the Australian meat industry.

    PubMed

    Sumner, John; Krist, Karen

    2002-03-01

    In Australia, the key regulatory body, the Meat Standards Committee (MSC) of the Agricultural and Resource Management Council of Australia and New Zealand (ARMCANZ) and the Export Meat Industry Advisory Council (EMIAC) have accepted in principle the usefulness of predictive microbiology for science-based regulation. The predictive microbiology approach is being used in a range of areas including hot-boning, distribution of meat, retailing of meat, fermentation, plant breakdowns and extended chilling regimes. PMID:11934043

  1. Emergence of neural angiostrongyliasis in eastern Australia.

    PubMed

    Aghazadeh, Mahdis; Jones, Malcolm K; Aland, Kieran V; Reid, Simon A; Traub, Rebecca J; McCarthy, James S; Lee, Rogan

    2015-03-01

    Despite an apparent increase in cases of angiostrongyliasis in humans and animals in Australia, the epidemiology of infection with the two species of Angiostrongylus that co-exist in this country, namely A. cantonensis and A. mackerrasae, is poorly understood. This knowledge gap is particularly important with respect to A. mackerrasae, a species evidently native to Australia, as its ability to cause disease in humans is unknown. Likewise, there is little information on the roles of native and introduced species of rodents and molluscs as hosts of Angiostrongylus species in Australia. This review focuses on the gaps in the knowledge about the two species, highlighting the need for epidemiological and pathogenesis studies on the native lungworm A. mackerrasae.

  2. Leber hereditary optic neuropathy in Australia.

    PubMed

    Mackey, D A; Buttery, R G

    1992-08-01

    Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) presents with sudden onset of visual loss mainly in young adult males. LHON is not uncommon in Australia, accounting for 2% of invalid blind pensions. We have identified 20 unrelated families carrying mitochondrial DNA mutations associated with LHON and 135 of 291 individuals with documented LHON are currently alive in Australia. The mean age of onset of visual loss for males was 26 years and for females 27 years, with a range from six to 65 years. The mean risk of visual loss was 20% for males and 4% for females. There are over 1750 male and female carriers living in Australia who have not yet lost vision; 600 carriers are under 24 years of age. The expected number of new cases of blindness from LHON is three to four per year. PMID:1449769

  3. Alcohol policy and harm reduction in Australia.

    PubMed

    Loxley, Wendy; Gray, Dennis; Wilkinson, Celia; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Midford, Richard; Moore, David

    2005-11-01

    With consultations having been held across Australia this year as part of the process of developing a new National Alcohol Strategy, it seemed timely to invite my colleagues from the National Drug Research Institute who are experts in the alcohol field to write this Harm Reduction Digest. The authors have canvassed a range of alcohol policy options and discussed their effectiveness in reducing harm for what is arguably Australia's number one drug problem. Australia's response to alcohol and other drug problems has, historically, been based on 'harm minimization--incorporating supply reduction, demand reduction and harm reduction'. At this time where the policy options for alcohol are being set for the next 5 years in a climate of 'small government', removing restrictions of 'fair competition' in business and a belief in the free market, what does the research have to say about recommended policies and strategies to reduce alcohol-related harm? PMID:16361215

  4. Predicting Parental Monitoring Behaviours for Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Parents of School-Aged Children: An Application of the Integrative Behavioural Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Housely, Alexandra; Branscum, Paul; Cheney, Marshall; Hofford, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to identify theory-based psychosocial and environmental determinants of parental monitoring practices related to child sugar-sweetened beverage consumption. Design: Cross-sectional design. Method: Data were obtained from a convenience sample of parents (n = 270) with children attending an after-school…

  5. Are LGBT populations at a higher risk for suicidal behaviors in Australia? Research findings and implications.

    PubMed

    Skerrett, Delaney M; Kõlves, Kairi; De Leo, Diego

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this article is to review the Australian literature about suicidality in minority sexual identity and/or behavior groups in order to determine the evidence base for their reported higher vulnerability to suicidal behaviors than heterosexual and non-transgendered individuals in the Australian context, as well as to identify the factors that are predictive of suicidal behaviors in these groups in Australia. A literature search for all available years (until the end of 2012) was conducted using the databases Scopus, Medline, and Proquest for articles published in English in peer-reviewed academic journals. All peer-reviewed publications that provided empirical evidence for prevalence and predictive factors of suicidal behaviors among LGBT individuals (or a subset thereof) in Australia were included. Reference lists were also scrutinized to identify "gray" literature for inclusion. The results revealed that there is only limited research from Australia. Nevertheless, although no population-based studies have been published, research indicates that sexual minorities are indeed at a higher risk for suicidal behaviors. In order to further the understanding of suicidal behaviors and potential prevention among LGBT groups in the Australia, further research is needed, particularly on fatal suicidal behaviors.

  6. Are LGBT populations at a higher risk for suicidal behaviors in Australia? Research findings and implications.

    PubMed

    Skerrett, Delaney M; Kõlves, Kairi; De Leo, Diego

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this article is to review the Australian literature about suicidality in minority sexual identity and/or behavior groups in order to determine the evidence base for their reported higher vulnerability to suicidal behaviors than heterosexual and non-transgendered individuals in the Australian context, as well as to identify the factors that are predictive of suicidal behaviors in these groups in Australia. A literature search for all available years (until the end of 2012) was conducted using the databases Scopus, Medline, and Proquest for articles published in English in peer-reviewed academic journals. All peer-reviewed publications that provided empirical evidence for prevalence and predictive factors of suicidal behaviors among LGBT individuals (or a subset thereof) in Australia were included. Reference lists were also scrutinized to identify "gray" literature for inclusion. The results revealed that there is only limited research from Australia. Nevertheless, although no population-based studies have been published, research indicates that sexual minorities are indeed at a higher risk for suicidal behaviors. In order to further the understanding of suicidal behaviors and potential prevention among LGBT groups in the Australia, further research is needed, particularly on fatal suicidal behaviors. PMID:25569508

  7. Health care expenditure and life expectancy in Australia: how well do we perform?

    PubMed

    Taylor, R; Salkeld, G

    1996-06-01

    The Australian health care system consists of mixed public and private financing underpinned by Medicare, a universal government-run insurance scheme paid through taxation (and levy) on income. Australia has improved its ranking for life expectancy (at birth) since 1960, and in 1990 ranked ninth and seventh of 24 countries for females and males respectively; this is ahead of the United States and United Kingdom, and approximately equal to Canada. Australian hospital bed supply and utilisation are average, after deletion of day-only cases. The proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) spent on health, in relation to GDP per capita (adjusted for purchasing power), in Australia in 1990 was average, and the prices for health care from 1975 to 1990 did not increase when adjusted for inflation. Although 68 per cent of health expenditure emanates from public sources in Australia, this is lower than in the majority of European countries and Canada. Some countries are doing poorly (such as the United States, with lower than average life expectancy and higher than predicted health expenditure) and some countries are doing well (with higher than average life expectancy and lower than predicted health expenditure; for example, Japan). Australia has higher than average life expectancy and only slightly higher than predicted health expenditure per capita. Although the Australian system could be improved, there are no indications that radical changes are required. The relatively high life expectancy in Australia can be attributed to favourable social and economic conditions, successful public health programs, and the availability of universal quality health care. PMID:8768411

  8. Roaming yuppies: Hong Kong migration to Australia.

    PubMed

    Wong, S

    1994-01-01

    "Hong Kong has been the top source for Asian migration to Australia in recent years. The majority of the Hong Kong migrants are young, educated professionals. Using survey data conducted in Hong Kong on emigration tendencies, this article analyzes why they are leaving Hong Kong, what attracts them to Australia, and what impact this influx has on Australian society. It is speculated that this movement may create an enduring change in the identity of emigrant Hong Kongers and have a wider significance in the contradictory currents of geopolitics and geoeconomics which are simultaneously encouraging and resisting migration." PMID:12289778

  9. Roaming yuppies: Hong Kong migration to Australia.

    PubMed

    Wong, S

    1994-01-01

    "Hong Kong has been the top source for Asian migration to Australia in recent years. The majority of the Hong Kong migrants are young, educated professionals. Using survey data conducted in Hong Kong on emigration tendencies, this article analyzes why they are leaving Hong Kong, what attracts them to Australia, and what impact this influx has on Australian society. It is speculated that this movement may create an enduring change in the identity of emigrant Hong Kongers and have a wider significance in the contradictory currents of geopolitics and geoeconomics which are simultaneously encouraging and resisting migration."

  10. Dengue fever with encephalopathy in Australia.

    PubMed

    Row, D; Weinstein, P; Murray-Smith, S

    1996-03-01

    During an epidemic of dengue type 2 virus in the rural community of Charters Towers, North Queensland, Australia, in 1993, 210 cases presented to the local hospital with signs and symptoms of classic dengue fever. Two cases were noteworthy because of neurologic complications, which included drowsiness, short term memory loss, agitation, and seizure. The cases are presented in detail because they are the first cases of dengue-associated encephalopathy to be documented in Australia. An increasing number of cases of encephalopathy associated with classic dengue fever is being reported world wide, but the etiology of this clinical syndrome remains unknown.

  11. Status of Women In Physics in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foley, C. P.

    2009-04-01

    The status of women in physics is Australia has remained mostly steady until recently, with the appointment of several eminent women in major government of public roles. Australia seems to maintain the same gender ratio for those studying and working in physics. There is no overall coordination of programs to assist women into the workplace but there is generally goodwill. Success in attracting and retaining women in the physics workforce appears to depend on the local culture, initiatives, and attitude of the most senior person in the organization.

  12. Landsat Based Woody Vegetation Loss Detection in Queensland, Australia Using the Google Earth Engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johansen, K.; Phinn, S. R.; Taylor, M.

    2014-12-01

    Land clearing detection and woody Foliage Projective Cover (FPC) monitoring at the state and national level in Australia has mainly been undertaken by state governments and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) because of the considerable expense, expertise, sustained duration of activities and staffing levels needed. Only recently have services become available, providing low budget, generalized access to change detection tools suited to this task. The objective of this research was to examine if a globally available service, Google Earth Engine Beta, could be used to predict woody vegetation loss with accuracies approaching the methods used by TERN and the government of the state of Queensland, Australia. Two change detection approaches were investigated using Landsat Thematic Mapper time series and the Google Earth Engine Application Programming Interface: (1) CART and Random Forest classifiers; and (2) a normalized time series of Foliage Projective Cover (FPC) and NDVI combined with a spectral index. The CART and Random Forest classifiers produced high user's and producer's mapping accuracies of clearing (77-92% and 54-77%, respectively) when detecting change within epochs for which training data were available, but extrapolation to epochs without training data reduced the mapping accuracies. The use of FPC and NDVI time series provided a more robust approach for calculation of a clearing probability, as it did not rely on training data but instead on the difference of the normalized FPC / NDVI mean and standard deviation of a single year at the change point in relation to the remaining time series. However, the FPC and NDVI time series approach represented a trade-off between user's and producer's accuracies. Both change detection approaches explored in this research were sensitive to ephemeral greening and drying of the landscape. However, the developed normalized FPC and NDVI time series approach can be tuned to provide automated alerts for large

  13. Epidemiology of Down syndrome in South Australia, 1960-89.

    PubMed Central

    Staples, A J; Sutherland, G R; Haan, E A; Clisby, S

    1991-01-01

    During 1960-89 687 Down syndrome live births and 46 Down syndrome pregnancy terminations were identified in South Australia. Ascertainment was estimated to be virtually complete. The sex distribution of Down syndrome live births was found to be statistically different from the non-Down syndrome live-birth sex distribution (P less than .01). Smoothed maternal age-specific incidence was derived using both maternal age calculated to the nearest month and a discontinuous-slope regression model. The incidence of Down syndrome at birth for the study period was estimated to be 1.186 Down syndrome births/1,000 live births. Annual population incidence was shown to be correlated with trends in the maternal age distribution of confinements. If current trends in the maternal age distribution of confinements continue, the population incidence of Down syndrome in South Australia is predicted to exceed 1.5 Down syndrome births/1,000 live births during the 1990-94 quinquennium. PMID:1833972

  14. A dispersal-constrained habitat suitability model for predicting invasion of alpine vegetation.

    PubMed

    Williams, Nicholas S G; Hahs, Amy K; Morgan, John W

    2008-03-01

    Developing tools to predict the location of new biological invasions is essential if exotic species are to be controlled before they become widespread. Currently, alpine areas in Australia are largely free of exotic plant species but face increasing pressure from invasive species due to global warming and intensified human use. To predict the potential spread of highly invasive orange hawkweed (Hieracium aurantiacum) from existing founder populations on the Bogong High Plains in southern Australia, we developed an expert-based, spatially explicit, dispersal-constrained, habitat suitability model. The model combines a habitat suitability index, developed from disturbance, site wetness, and vegetation community parameters, with a phenomenological dispersal kernel that uses wind direction and observed dispersal distances. After generating risk maps that defined the relative suitability of H. aurantiacum establishment across the study area, we intensively searched several locations to evaluate the model. The highest relative suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment was southeast from the initial infestations. Native tussock grasslands and disturbed areas had high suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment. Extensive field searches failed to detect new populations. Time-step evaluation using the location of populations known in 1998-2000, accurately assigned high relative suitability for locations where H. aurantiacum had established post-2003 (AUC [area under curve] = 0.855 +/- 0.035). This suggests our model has good predictive power and will improve the ability to detect populations and prioritize areas for ongoing monitoring.

  15. Monitoring, safety systems for LNG and LPG operators

    SciTech Connect

    True, W.R.

    1998-11-16

    Operators in Korea and Australia have chosen monitoring and control systems in recent contracts for LNG and LPG storage. Korea Gas Corp. (Kogas) has hired Whessoe Varec, Calais, to provide monitoring systems for four LNG storage tanks being built at Kogas` Inchon terminal. For Elgas Ltd., Port Botany, Australia, Whessoe Varec has already shipped a safety valve-shutdown system to a new LPG cavern-storage facility under construction. The paper describes the systems, terminal monitoring, dynamic approach to tank management, and meeting the growing demand for LPG.

  16. Australia's savanna herbivores: bioclimatic distributions and an assessment of the potential impact of regional climate change.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Euan G; Bolitho, Elizabeth E

    2008-01-01

    The future impacts of climate change are predicted to significantly affect the survival of many species. Recent studies indicate that even species that are relatively mobile and/or have large geographic ranges may be at risk of range contractions or extinction. An ecologically and evolutionary significant group of mammals that has been largely overlooked in this research is Australia's large marsupial herbivores, the macropodids (kangaroos). The aims of our investigation were to define and compare the climatic conditions that influence the current distributions of four sympatric large macropodids in northern Australia (Macropus antilopinus, Macropus robustus, Macropus giganteus, and Macropus rufus) and to predict the potential future impact of climate change on these species. Our results suggest that contemporary distributions of these large macropodids are associated with well-defined climatic gradients (tropical and temperate conditions) and that climatic seasonality is also important. Bioclimatic modeling predicted an average reduction in northern Australian macropodid distributions of 48% +/- 16.4% in response to increases of 2.0 degrees C. At this temperature, the distribution of M. antilopinus was reduced by 89% +/-0.4%. We predict that increases of 6.0 degrees C may cause severe range reductions for all four macropodids (96% +/-2.1%) in northern Australia, and this range reduction may result in the extinction of M. antilopinus.

  17. Evaluation of aerial photography for predicting trends in structural attributes of Australian woodland including comparison with ground-based monitoring data.

    PubMed

    Fensham, Roderick J; Bray, Steven G; Fairfax, Russell J

    2007-06-01

    The accurate assessment of trends in the woody structure of savannas has important implications for greenhouse accounting and land-use industries such as pastoralism. Two recent assessments of live woody biomass change from north-east Australian eucalypt woodland between the 1980s and 1990s present divergent results. The first estimate is derived from a network of permanent monitoring plots and the second from woody cover assessments from aerial photography. The differences between the studies are reviewed and include sample density, spatial scale and design. Further analyses targeting potential biases in the indirect aerial photography technique are conducted including a comparison of basal area estimates derived from 28 permanent monitoring sites with basal area estimates derived by the aerial photography technique. It is concluded that the effect of photo-scale; or the failure to include appropriate back-transformation of biomass estimates in the aerial photography study are not likely to have contributed significantly to the discrepancy. However, temporal changes in the structure of woodlands, for example, woodlands maturing from many smaller trees to fewer larger trees or seasonal changes, which affect the relationship between cover and basal area could impact on the detection of trends using the aerial photography technique. It is also possible that issues concerning photo-quality may bias assessments through time, and that the limited sample of the permanent monitoring network may inadequately represent change at regional scales. PMID:16828220

  18. Sex Education in South Australia: The Past and the Present

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Talukdar, Joy; Aspland, Tania; Datta, Poulomee

    2013-01-01

    In South Australia, sex education has been controversial since its inception. The Australasian White Cross league and the Family Planning Association of South Australia were the pioneers of sex education in South Australia. The framing of a national framework and the implementation of the SHARE (Sexual Health and Relationships Education) project…

  19. Novel measles virus genotype, East Timor and Australia.

    PubMed

    Chibo, Doris; Riddell, Michaela; Catton, Michael; Birch, Christopher

    2002-07-01

    Measles outbreaks in 1999 in Queensland and Victoria, Australia, were caused by a novel strain of clade G virus (proposed name g3). Epidemiologic and molecular evidence supports independent circulation of this virus in Queensland, northern Australia, in addition to importation of the virus by East Timor refugees seeking safe haven in Australia. PMID:12095446

  20. Global Position and Position Taking: The Case of Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marginson, Simon

    2007-01-01

    From 1990 to 2003, Australia's share of the global market in cross-border degrees grew from 1% to 9%. Full fee-paying foreign students now constitute one quarter of enrolments, and education is Australia's third largest services export. Positioned as an Anglo-American system on the edge of Asia, Australia has differentiated itself from the United…

  1. Biodiversity in Australia: What, Where, and for How Long?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Panizzon, Debra; Boulton, Andrew

    2000-01-01

    Australia's most serious environmental problem is the loss of biological diversity, or biodiversity. Australia harbors much of the world's species diversity and has remarkably high numbers of endemic species. Reviews current threats to biodiversity and efforts to protect and enhance it in Australia. (Contains 29 references.) (Author/ASK)

  2. Library Development: Australia. IATUL Proceedings Vol. 15, 1983.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fjallbrant, Nancy, Ed.

    1983-01-01

    This issue of the IATUL (International Association of Technological University Libraries) Proceedings focuses on developments in Australian libraries. The first article, "University Librarianship in Australia" (D. H. Borchardt), reviews the growth of librarianship in Australia and examines some current issues. "Information Retrieval in Australia"…

  3. Internationalization in Australia and Canada: Lessons for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Kelly

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the internationalization of postsecondary education in Australia and Canada. The author discusses the contextual similarities and differences between the two countries, the shifting rationale "from aid to trade" behind Australia's internationalization attempts and some of the reasons for Australia's success.…

  4. Social Inclusion and Critical Consciousness in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diemer, Matthew A.; Ortega, Lilyana

    2010-01-01

    Australia's Indigenous population is excluded from a range of opportunities, experiences and amenities that facilitate wellbeing, self-determination and social inclusion. This social exclusion constrains the career development and occupational attainment of Indigenous youth, which represent key routes to societal inclusion. Critical…

  5. Improving the Quality of Teaching in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinham, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    Australia needs to more effectively attract, train, support, retain, recognize, and reward quality teachers throughout their careers. After a slow start and decades of debate, the pieces of the quality teaching puzzle are now coming together. Increased federal government intervention and financial support, along with state and territorial support…

  6. The First Suggestopedia German Course in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gassner-Roberts, Sigrid

    An account of personal experiences and experiments with a suggestopedic German course taught at the University of Adelaide in Australia is presented. Summaries of the students' background and of their continuous achievements in the German class are provided. The class was conducted primarily according to the "Manual of Classroom Procedures Based…

  7. Tertiary Education in Australia: Part I

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sands, Edward Wilfrid; Berends, Willem

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the foundation and development of universities in Australia and New Zealand and demonstrates how these universities were established on a secular basis. Educators from other continents with a mainly Christian history are often surprised that there is so little evidence of Christian input into the university sector in…

  8. School Security Assessment Programme in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marrapodi, John

    2007-01-01

    This article describes a successful security risk management programme in Australia. The state-wide programme follows a structured risk management approach focusing on the safety and security of people, information, provision, and assets in the school environment. To assist school principals, a Security Risk Assessment Programme was developed on a…

  9. Worker Education in Australia and New Zealand.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagglund, George

    The history of the recent development of worker education in Australia and New Zealand shows that, in just the past 15 years or so, very significant improvements have occurred in delivery of trade union education. To a very large degree these developments took place because of the existence of a close relationship between the union movement and…

  10. Medical e-commerce for regional Australia.

    PubMed

    Kumar, D K; Mikelaitis, P

    2001-12-01

    The residents of rural and regional Australia have less access to health care services than in capital cities. There is a reluctance of General Practitioners to practice in the country. New information technology and government initiatives are now addressing this problem. High bandwidth videoconferencing is now being routinely used to provide psychiatric consultations to areas without this service. But this (like many other implementations of telecommunication technologies to health) has resulted in loss of revenue to regional Australia while benefiting capital cities. Thus, the current implementation of telecommunication technology to health has resulted in loss of revenue of the regions while increasing the bias towards the cities. Further, the system is not economically viable and requires the Government to inject funds for the smooth operation of the system. This paper proposes the use of telecommunication technology for enabling the communities of regional Australia to access health facilities via physical and virtual clinics. The proposed technique is self supporting and is based in the country with the intent to prevent the drain of resources from regional Australia. The technique attempts to eradicate the problem at the root level by providing a business opportunity that is based in and to cater for the needs of the remote communities. The proposed system would provide health services by physical and virtual clinics and while serving the communities would be profit centres- and thus attracting doctors and other resources to the remote communities. PMID:11929136

  11. Language Planning and Language Policy in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liddicoat, Anthony, Ed.

    1991-01-01

    A five-year period of particular activity in Australian language policy and language planning culminated with the 1991 publication of the White Paper called Australia's Language, which outlines proposed government programs in languages until 1994. Many of the papers in this theme issue of the journal of the Applied Linguistics Association of…

  12. The Teaching of Japanese in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marriott, Helen E.

    1992-01-01

    The article surveys the development of Japanese language courses in Australia, noting a variety of factors contribute to the growth and recent intensification of interest in the subject. It examines problems within Japanese language teaching and discusses further innovative course development, differentiation of needs, employer perceptions, and…

  13. Internet advertising of artificial tanning in Australia.

    PubMed

    Team, Victoria; Markovic, Milica

    2006-08-01

    Artificial tanning, defined as deliberate exposure to ultraviolet rays produced by artificial tanning devices, is a new and emerging public health issue in Australia and globally. Epidemiological research suggests that artificial tanning may contribute to the incidence of melanoma, nonmelanoma skin cancer as well as other health problems. Given that Australia has a high incidence of skin cancer, we have undertaken a study to explore how artificial tanning has been promoted to its users. The aim was to analyze the completeness and accuracy of information about artificial tanning. A content analysis of web sites of tanning salons and distributors of tanning equipment in Australia was conducted. A total of 22 web sites were analyzed. None of the solarium operators or distributors of equipment provided full information about the risks of artificial tanning. Fifty-nine percent of web advertisements had no information and 41% provided only partial information regarding the risks of artificial tanning. Pictures with the image of bronze-tanned bodies, predominantly women, were used by all web advertisers. In light of the success of sun-safety campaigns in Australia, the findings of future epidemiological research on the prevalence of artificial tanning and sociological and anthropological research on why people utilize artificial tanning should be a basis for developing effective targeted health promotion on the elimination of artificial tanning in the country.

  14. Teaching Educational Leadership and Administration in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bates, Richard; Eacott, Scott

    2008-01-01

    Despite the ubiquity of programmes in educational administration and leadership little is known about the resources used to teach them. This article reviews the sources currently employed in such programmes in Australia by examining the textbooks, book chapters and journal articles specified for 53 separate units (papers) offered at 15 of the key…

  15. Enterprise Training in Australia. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayton, Geoff; McIntyre, John; Sweet, Richard; McDonald, Rod; Noble, Charles; Smith, Andrew; Roberts, Paul

    In the second phase of a two-phase study, enterprise training in Australia was examined through case studies of training at 12 Australian enterprises in 2 sectors. The six finance and insurance enterprises and six retail enterprises studied were selected to obtain a sample that was representative from the standpoints of enterprise size and…

  16. Hendra Virus Infection in Dog, Australia, 2013

    PubMed Central

    Gabor, Melinda; Poe, Ian; Neale, Kristie; Chaffey, Kim; Finlaison, Deborah S.; Gu, Xingnian; Hick, Paul M.; Read, Andrew J.; Wright, Therese; Middleton, Deborah

    2015-01-01

    Hendra virus occasionally causes severe disease in horses and humans. In Australia in 2013, infection was detected in a dog that had been in contact with an infected horse. Abnormalities and viral RNA were found in the dog’s kidney, brain, lymph nodes, spleen, and liver. Dogs should be kept away from infected horses. PMID:26583697

  17. Public Engagement and Nanotechnology in Australia.

    PubMed

    Dalton-Brown, Sally

    2016-07-01

    Upstream engagement is commonly regarded as necessary for the smooth implementation of new technologies, particularly when there is an impact on health. Is the healthcare context in Australia geared toward such public engagement? There are established engagement practices for issues of healthcare resourcing, for example; however, the situation becomes more complex with the introduction of a new technology such as nanomedicine. PMID:27348837

  18. Gender Inclusive Policy Developments in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Evelyn

    2002-01-01

    Traces two chronologies of gender-inclusive policy development in Australia's national and state education-policy arenas to demonstrate, from a feminist perspective, their limited applicability at the school level. Argues that more transformative conceptions of gender inclusiveness evident in the feminist academy be promoted in policy. (Contains…

  19. The History of Distance Education in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stacey, Elizabeth

    2005-01-01

    Australia's large distances and widely distributed population has meant that distance education has been an important part of its history. From the earliest provision of schooling by mail through a series of correspondence schools, both state and federal governments have provided a sound infrastructure to support distance education. Innovative…

  20. Australia: An Instructional Unit for Elementary Grades.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duea, Joan; And Others

    Designed to provide elementary teachers with materials for the study of Australia, this unit contains 19 lessons that include objectives, materials, procedures, suggested extension activities, and answer keys where needed. Following the 19 lessons are blackline masters for teacher transparencies, student worksheets, and extension activities. A…

  1. New Focus for Space Research in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cairns, Iver

    Australia was the fourth nation to launch a spacecraft into orbit from its own territory, in 1967. Its second satellite followed 35 years later, when FedSat was launched in December 2002. Australia had and continues to have world experts in many areas of space science and technology. Several of these have participated in international missions, even sometimes with government support and funding to collaborate on designing and building an instrument for an international mission (e.g., AATSR on ESA's Envisat). Despite this Australia has no coordinated national space effort or dedicated funding for space research. Few linkages existed between Universities, Government units, and industry or across the field. This talk describes efforts to change this situation by developing the first Decadal Plan for Australian Space Science. The Plan's vision is "World-leading innovative space science and technology, strong domestic capability, and international collaborations that build Australia a long term, productive presence in Space". The talk describes the process and summarises the recommendations of the Australian space science community. These include creation of a national coordination committee (ACCSS), scientific themes and goals, and the science, education, and outreach projects necessary to accomplish them. The science projects involve ground-based assets, spacecraft missions, theory/modelling programs, and technology development and testing.

  2. Hendra Virus Infection in Dog, Australia, 2013.

    PubMed

    Kirkland, Peter D; Gabor, Melinda; Poe, Ian; Neale, Kristie; Chaffey, Kim; Finlaison, Deborah S; Gu, Xingnian; Hick, Paul M; Read, Andrew J; Wright, Therese; Middleton, Deborah

    2015-12-01

    Hendra virus occasionally causes severe disease in horses and humans. In Australia in 2013, infection was detected in a dog that had been in contact with an infected horse. Abnormalities and viral RNA were found in the dog's kidney, brain, lymph nodes, spleen, and liver. Dogs should be kept away from infected horses.

  3. Remote Access Laboratories in Australia and Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ku, H.; Ahfock, T.; Yusaf, T.

    2011-01-01

    Remote access laboratories (RALs) were first developed in 1994 in Australia and Switzerland. The main purposes of developing them are to enable students to do their experiments at their own pace, time and locations and to enable students and teaching staff to get access to facilities beyond their institutions. Currently, most of the experiments…

  4. GNSS Antenna Calibration Facility at Geoscience Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, A. R.; Moore, M. J.; Dawson, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    A GNSS antenna calibration facility has recently been established at Geoscience Australia. The facility includes a GEO++ robotic antenna calibration system, and an industrial robot (';KUKA'). Previous studies have highlighted the importance of accounting for the variation in antenna calibration due to the electromagnetic coupling between the antenna and monument. The reactive near-field effect has been reported to have the potential to produce a combination of a mean bias and change in periodic noise characteristics which then result in a velocity bias as well as a decrease in precision of coordinate estimates. Initially the priority of the calibration system will be to perform individual antenna calibrations for over 100 antennas purchased for high accuracy deformation surveys carried out in Western Australia, South Australia and south-east Australia. The principal aim of these deformation surveys is to detect intra-plate crustal deformation, where the magnitude of the signal is expected to be less than 1 mm/yr. The main role of the industrial robot is for research and development into GNSS algorithms and to further developments into antenna calibration. The industrial robot has a much higher payload capability of up to 60 kg. This makes it feasible to perform calibrations with a section of the monument still attached to the antenna, potentially providing a calibration which will better reflect the environment the signals are observed in. We will detail various experiments to be carried out on the industrial robot, and provide an update on the status and performance of the calibration facility.

  5. Medical e-commerce for regional Australia.

    PubMed

    Kumar, D K; Mikelaitis, P

    2001-12-01

    The residents of rural and regional Australia have less access to health care services than in capital cities. There is a reluctance of General Practitioners to practice in the country. New information technology and government initiatives are now addressing this problem. High bandwidth videoconferencing is now being routinely used to provide psychiatric consultations to areas without this service. But this (like many other implementations of telecommunication technologies to health) has resulted in loss of revenue to regional Australia while benefiting capital cities. Thus, the current implementation of telecommunication technology to health has resulted in loss of revenue of the regions while increasing the bias towards the cities. Further, the system is not economically viable and requires the Government to inject funds for the smooth operation of the system. This paper proposes the use of telecommunication technology for enabling the communities of regional Australia to access health facilities via physical and virtual clinics. The proposed technique is self supporting and is based in the country with the intent to prevent the drain of resources from regional Australia. The technique attempts to eradicate the problem at the root level by providing a business opportunity that is based in and to cater for the needs of the remote communities. The proposed system would provide health services by physical and virtual clinics and while serving the communities would be profit centres- and thus attracting doctors and other resources to the remote communities.

  6. International Higher Education in Australia: Unplanned Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shah, Mahsood; Nair, Chenicheri Sid

    2011-01-01

    International education is the third largest export industry in Australia and is worth almost A$20 billion. The last ten years have witnessed significant growth in both onshore and offshore enrolments of international students in Australian universities. The offshore component of all Australian universities has been subject to scrutiny by the…

  7. Australia's international health relations in 2003

    PubMed Central

    Barraclough, Simon

    2005-01-01

    A survey for the year 2003 of significant developments in Australia's official international health relations, and their domestic ramifications, is presented. The discussion is set within the broader context of Australian foreign policy. Sources include official documents, media reports and consultations with officers of the Department of Health and Ageing responsible for international linkages. PMID:15720728

  8. The Outlook for Training in Australia's Industries.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Centre for Vocational Education Research, Leabrook (Australia).

    This book, which is intended primarily for Australia's vocational education and training (VET) sector, industry decision makers, and policymakers, provides an overview of occupational trends and the current training effort relating to occupations in Australian industry. Chapter 1 traces economic and labor market changes and the changing…

  9. Research Update: Outdoor Education Fatalities in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brookes, Andrew

    2007-01-01

    This paper is part of an on-going project to examine outdoor education related deaths in Australia since 1960. It records eleven incidents not included in previous papers in this series. A total of 14 students or staff died in the incidents. The paper reviews the incidents and identifies what further lessons can be learned about fatality…

  10. Latest statistics on cardiovascular disease in Australia.

    PubMed

    Waters, Anne-Marie; Trinh, Lany; Chau, Theresa; Bourchier, Michael; Moon, Lynelle

    2013-06-01

    The results presented herein summarize the most up-to-date cardiovascular statistics available at this time in Australia. The analysis presented here is based on and extends results published in two Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) reports, namely Cardiovascular disease: Australian facts 2011 and the cardiovascular disease (CVD) section of Australia's Health 2012. Despite significant improvements in the cardiovascular health of Australians in recent decades, CVD continues to impose a heavy burden on Australians in terms of illness, disability and premature death. Direct health care expenditure for CVD exceeds that for any other disease group. The most recent national data have been analysed to describe patterns and trends in CVD hospitalization and death rates, with additional analysis by Indigenous status, remoteness and socioeconomic group. The incidence of and case-fatality from major coronary events has also been examined. Although CVD death rates have declined steadily in Australia since the late 1960s, CVD still accounts for a larger proportion of deaths (33% in 2009) than any other disease group. Worryingly, the rate at which the coronary heart disease death rate has been falling in recent years has slowed in younger (35-54 years) age groups. Between 1998-99 and 2009-10, the overall rate of hospitalizations for CVD fell by 13%, with declines observed for most major CVDs. In conclusion, CVD disease remains a significant health problem in Australia despite decreasing death and hospitalization rates. PMID:23517328

  11. Food Literacy at Secondary Schools in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ronto, Rimante; Ball, Lauren; Pendergast, Donna; Harris, Neil D.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Food literacy can encourage adolescents to develop healthy dietary patterns. This study examined home economics teachers' (HET) perspectives of the importance, curriculum, self-efficacy, and food environments regarding food literacy in secondary schools in Australia. Methods: A 20-item cross-sectional survey was completed by 205 HETs.…

  12. Developing a National Geography Curriculum for Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maude, Alaric Mervyn

    2014-01-01

    Australia is in the process of implementing a national geography curriculum to replace the separate state and territory curriculums. The paper describes the process of curriculum development, and identifies the different groups that were involved. These included the board and staff of the national curriculum authority, geography teachers across…

  13. An Environmentally Sustainable Development in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Ruth

    2003-01-01

    The future Kelvin Grove Urban Village in Queensland, Australia, is an example of how principles of environmentally sustainable design have translated into practice. Those responsible for the new project recognise the importance of building design that respects the environment by using resources efficiently and minimising pollution. The site's…

  14. Deutsch in Australien (German in Australia)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Apelt, Hans-Peter

    1975-01-01

    German studies have expanded in the last 25 years in Australia. In 1974 the Goethe Institute conducted developmental conferences for German teachers, in cooperation with Australian universities and school authorities. Twelve universities have fully developed Germanistic Institutes. The Australian government has subsidized increasing numbers of…

  15. Tuberculosis notifications in Australia, 2012 and 2013.

    PubMed

    Toms, Cindy; Stapledon, Richard; Waring, Justin; Douglas, Paul

    2015-06-30

    The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System received 1,317 tuberculosis (TB) notifications in 2012 and 1,263 notifications in 2013. This represents a rate of 5.8 per 100,000 population in 2012 and 5.5 per 100,000 population in 2013 and a reversal of the upward trend in TB incidence reported since 2007. In 2012 and 2013, Australia's overseas-born population continued to represent the majority of TB notifications with an incidence rate of 19.5 per 100,000 and 18.4 per 100,000 respectively. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born Indigenous population has fluctuated over the last decade; however, it remained reasonably steady in 2012 and 2013 with an incidence rate of 4.5 per 100,000 and 4.6 per 100,000 respectively. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born non-Indigenous population has continued to remain low at 0.7 per 100,000 in 2012 and 0.8 per 100,000 in 2013. Australia continued to record only a small number of multi-drug resistant TB cases nationally (2012: n=20; 2013: n=22) of which nearly all were identified in the overseas-born population. This report demonstrates excellent and sustained control of TB in Australia and reflects Australia's commitment to reducing the global burden of TB.

  16. Tertiary Education and Training in Australia, 2009

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2011

    2011-01-01

    Sourcing data from the National VET Provider Collection and the Higher Education Statistics Collection, this publication provides a summary of participation in tertiary education and training in Australia. It covers participation in Australian Qualifications Framework certificate I qualifications through to doctorates by research, as well as…

  17. A School Level Environment Study in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cresswell, John; Fisher, Darrell

    This paper reports on a study that investigated the reliability and validity of a school-environment measuring instrument: the School Level Environment Questionnaire (SLEQ). Results were compared to teachers' and principals' perceptions of actual and ideal school environments. The questionnaire was sent to 60 schools throughout Australia where it…

  18. Remote access laboratories in Australia and Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ku, H.; Ahfock, T.; Yusaf, T.

    2011-06-01

    Remote access laboratories (RALs) were first developed in 1994 in Australia and Switzerland. The main purposes of developing them are to enable students to do their experiments at their own pace, time and locations and to enable students and teaching staff to get access to facilities beyond their institutions. Currently, most of the experiments carried out through RALs in Australia are heavily biased towards electrical, electronic and computer engineering disciplines. However, the experiments carried out through RALs in Europe had more variety, in addition to the traditional electrical, electronic and computer engineering disciplines, there were experiments in mechanical and mechatronic disciplines. It was found that RALs are now being developed aggressively in Australia and Europe and it can be argued that RALs will develop further and faster in the future with improving Internet technology. The rising costs of real experimental equipment will also speed up their development because by making the equipment remotely accessible, the cost can be shared by more universities or institutions and this will improve their cost-effectiveness. Their development would be particularly rapid in large countries with small populations such as Australia, Canada and Russia, because of the scale of economy. Reusability of software, interoperability in software implementation, computer supported collaborative learning and convergence with learning management systems are the required development of future RALs.

  19. The development of practice standards for radiation oncology in Australia: a tripartite approach.

    PubMed

    Kron, T; Dwyer, M; Smith, L; MacDonald, A; Pawsey, M; Raik, E; Arnold, A; Hill, B; Duchesne, G M

    2015-06-01

    In many areas of health care, practice standards have become an accepted method for professions to assess and improve the quality of care delivery. The aim of this work is to present the development of practice standards for radiation oncology in Australia, highlighting critical points and lessons learned. Following a review of radiotherapy services in Australia, a multidisciplinary group with support from the Australian Government developed practice standards for radiation oncology in Australia. The standards were produced in a multistep process including a nationwide survey of radiotherapy centres and piloting of the standards in a representative subset of all Australian radiotherapy centres. The standards are grouped into three sections: Facility management (covering staffing, data management, equipment and processes); Treatment planning and delivery (providing more detailed guidance on prescription, planning and delivery); Safety and quality management (including radiation safety, incident monitoring and clinical trials participation). Each of the 16 standards contains specific criteria, a commentary and suggestions for the evidence required to demonstrate compliance. The development of the standards was challenging and time consuming, but the collaborative efforts of the professions resulted in standards applicable throughout Australia and possibly further afield.

  20. Polygraph testing for deception in Australia: effective aid to crime investigation and adjudication?

    PubMed

    McMahon, Marilyn

    2003-08-01

    Polygraph testing--or the monitoring and analysing of selected physiological measures of an individual who is being interviewed, for the purpose of detecting deception--is controversial in Australia. Considerable mythology surrounds this method of detecting deception. Embedded in popular perceptions of crime fighting and utilised in high-profile criminal cases in Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland, polygraph testing is also explicitly prohibited from being used in crime investigation in New South Wales. Unlike in the United States, polygraph testing has not hitherto routinely been used by government departments and authorities as a preemployment screening tool, but is increasingly being offered in the private sector in Australia. This article examines the current scope of polygraph testing in Australia, describes different approaches to testing, briefly reviews recent information relating to validity and evaluates State legislation prohibiting the use of polygraph testing for specified purposes in New South Wales. Consequent to the continuing controversy regarding the accuracy of polygraph testing in detecting deception (and, conversely, truth-telling), it is argued that the emerging use of polygraph testing is problematic and common law principles rendering the results of such testing inadmissible in court do not constitute sufficient safeguard against inappropriate and intrusive testing. Future research should identify specific polygraph testing techniques and consider the most socially beneficial way of regulating this emerging area of practice.