Climatology and natural variability of the global hydrologic cycle in the GLA atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Mehta, V. M.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

1994-01-01

Time average climatology and low-frequency variabilities of the global hydrologic cycle (GHC) in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) were investigated in the present work. A 730-day experiment was conducted with the GLA GCM forced by insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow undergoing climatological annual cycles. Ifluences of interactive soil moisture on time average climatology and natural variability of the GHC were also investigated by conducting 365-day experiments with and without interactive soil moisture. Insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow were fixed at their July levels in the latter two experiments. Results show that the model's time average hydrologic cycle variables for July in all three experiments agree reasonably well with observations. Except in the case of precipitable water, the zonal average climates of the annual cycle experiment and the two perpetual July experiments are alike, i.e., their differences are within limits of the natural variability of the model's climate. Statistics of various components of the GHC, i.e., water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation, are significantly affected by the presence of interactive soil moisture. A long-term trend is found in the principal empirical modes of variability of ground wetness, evaporation, and sensible heat. Dominant modes of variability of these quantities over land are physically consistent with one another and with land surface energy balance requirements. The dominant mode of precipitation variability is found to be closely related to organized convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The precipitation variability has timescales in the range of 2 to 3 months and can be identified with the stationary component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The precipitation mode is not sensitive to the presence of interactive soil moisture but is closely linked to both the rotational and divergent components of atmospheric moisture transport. The present results indicate that globally coherent natural variability of the GHC in the GLA GCM has two basic timescales in the absence of annual cycles of external forcings: a long-term trend associated with atmosphere-soil moisture interaction which affects the model atmosphere mostly over midlatitude continental regions and a large-scale 2- to 3-month variability associated with atmospheric moist processes over the western Pacific Ocean.

An Examination of Sunspot Number Rates of Growth and Decay in Relation to the Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2006-01-01

On the basis of annual sunspot number averages, sunspot number rates of growth and decay are examined relative to both minimum and maximum amplitudes and the time of their occurrences using cycles 12 through present, the most reliably determined sunspot cycles. Indeed, strong correlations are found for predicting the minimum and maximum amplitudes and the time of their occurrences years in advance. As applied to predicting sunspot minimum for cycle 24, the next cycle, its minimum appears likely to occur in 2006, especially if it is a robust cycle similar in nature to cycles 17-23.

An Examination of Selected Geomagnetic Indices in Relation to the Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2006-01-01

Previous studies have shown geomagnetic indices to be useful for providing early estimates for the size of the following sunspot cycle several years in advance. Examined this study are various precursor methods for predicting the minimum and maximum amplitude of the following sunspot cycle, these precursors based on the aa and Ap geomagnetic indices and the number of disturbed days (NDD), days when the daily Ap index equaled or exceeded 25. Also examined is the yearly peak of the daily Ap index (Apmax), the number of days when Ap greater than or equal to 100, cyclic averages of sunspot number R, aa, Ap, NDD, and the number of sudden storm commencements (NSSC), as well the cyclic sums of NDD and NSSC. The analysis yields 90-percent prediction intervals for both the minimum and maximum amplitudes for cycle 24, the next sunspot cycle. In terms of yearly averages, the best regressions give Rmin = 9.8+/-2.9 and Rmax = 153.8+/-24.7, equivalent to Rm = 8.8+/-2.8 and RM = 159+/-5.5, based on the 12-mo moving average (or smoothed monthly mean sunspot number). Hence, cycle 24 is expected to be above average in size, similar to cycles 21 and 22, producing more than 300 sudden storm commencements and more than 560 disturbed days, of which about 25 will be Ap greater than or equal to 100. On the basis of annual averages, the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24 will be either 2006 or 2007.

Semi-annual Sq-variation in solar activity cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pogrebnoy, V.; Malosiev, T.

The peculiarities of semi-annual variation in solar activity cycle have been studied. The data from observatories having long observational series and located in different latitude zones were used. The following observatories were selected: Huancayo (magnetic equator), from 1922 to 1959; Apia (low latitudes), from 1912 to 1961; Moscow (middle latitudes), from 1947 to 1965. Based on the hourly values of H-components, the average monthly diurnal amplitudes (a difference between midday and midnight values), according to five international quiet days, were computed. Obtained results were compared with R (relative sunspot numbers) in the ranges of 0-30R, 40-100R, and 140-190R. It was shown, that the amplitude of semi-annual variation increases with R, from minimum to maximum values, on average by 45%. At equatorial Huancayo observatory, the semi-annual Sq(H)-variation appears especially clearly: its maximums take place at periods of equinoxes (March-April, September-October), and minimums -- at periods of solstices (June-July, December-January). At low (Apia observatory) and middle (Moscow observatory) latitudes, the character of semi-annual variation is somewhat different: it appears during the periods of equinoxes, but considerably less than at equator. Besides, with the growth of R, semi-annual variation appears against a background of annual variation, in the form of second peaks (maximum in June). At observatories located in low and middle latitudes, second peaks become more appreciable with an increase of R (March-April and September-October). During the periods of low solar activity, they are insignificant. This work has been carried out with the support from International Scientific and Technology Center (Project #KR-214).

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Atmospheric mold spore counts in relation to meteorological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katial, R. K.; Zhang, Yiming; Jones, Richard H.; Dyer, Philip D.

Fungal spore counts of Cladosporium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum were studied during 8 years in Denver, Colorado. Fungal spore counts were obtained daily during the pollinating season by a Rotorod sampler. Weather data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Daily averages of temperature, relative humidity, daily precipitation, barometric pressure, and wind speed were studied. A time series analysis was performed on the data to mathematically model the spore counts in relation to weather parameters. Using SAS PROC ARIMA software, a regression analysis was performed, regressing the spore counts on the weather variables assuming an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error structure. Cladosporium was found to be positively correlated (P<0.02) with average daily temperature, relative humidity, and negatively correlated with precipitation. Alternaria and Epicoccum did not show increased predictability with weather variables. A mathematical model was derived for Cladosporium spore counts using the annual seasonal cycle and significant weather variables. The model for Alternaria and Epicoccum incorporated the annual seasonal cycle. Fungal spore counts can be modeled by time series analysis and related to meteorological parameters controlling for seasonallity; this modeling can provide estimates of exposure to fungal aeroallergens.

Periodic variations of atmospheric electric field on fair weather conditions at YBJ, Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bin; Zou, Dan; Chen, Ben Yuan; Zhang, Jin Ye; Xu, Guo Wang

2013-05-01

Observations of atmospheric electric field on fair weather conditions from the plateau station, YBJ, Tibet (90°31‧50″ E, 30°06‧38″ N), over the period from 2006 to 2011, are presented in this work. Its periodic modulations are analyzed in frequency-domain by Lomb-Scargle Periodogram method and in time-domain by folding method. The results show that the fair weather atmospheric electric field intensity is modulated weakly by annual cycle, solar diurnal cycle and its several harmonic components. The modulating amplitude of annual cycle is bigger than that of solar diurnal cycle. The annual minimum/maximum nearly coincides with spring/autumn equinox. The detailed spectrum analysis show that the secondary peaks (i.e. sidereal diurnal cycle and semi-sidereal diurnal cycle) nearly disappear along with their primary peaks when the primary signals are subtracted from electric field data sequence. The average daily variation curve exhibits dual-fluctuations, and has obviously seasonal dependence. The mean value is bigger in summer and autumn, but smaller in spring and winter. The daytime fluctuation is affected by the sunrise and sunset effect, the occurring time of which have a little shift with seasons. However, the nightly one has a great dependence on season conditions.

Radiation exposure of German aircraft crews under the impact of solar cycle 23 and airline business factors.

PubMed

Frasch, Gerhard; Kammerer, Lothar; Karofsky, Ralf; Schlosser, Andrea; Stegemann, Ralf

2014-12-01

The exposure of German aircraft crews to cosmic radiation varies both with solar activity and operational factors of airline business. Data come from the German central dose registry and cover monthly exposures of up to 37,000 German aircraft crewmembers that were under official monitoring. During the years 2004 to 2009 of solar cycle 23 (i.e., in the decreasing phase of solar activity), the annual doses of German aircraft crews increased by an average of 20%. Decreasing solar activity allows more galactic radiation to reach the atmosphere, increasing high-altitude doses. The rise results mainly from the less effective protection from the solar wind but also from airline business factors. Both cockpit and cabin personnel differ in age-dependent professional and social status. This status determines substantially the annual effective dose: younger cabin personnel and the elder pilots generally receive higher annual doses than their counterparts. They also receive larger increases in their annual dose when the solar activity decreases. The doses under this combined influence of solar activity and airline business factors result in a maximum of exposure for German aircrews for this solar cycle. With the increasing solar activity of the current solar cycle 24, the doses are expected to decrease again.

Cloud Climatology for Land Stations Worldwide, 1971-2009 (NDP-026D)

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, C. J. [University of Arizona; Warren, S. G. [University of Washington; Eastman, R. [University of Washington

2012-08-01

Surface synoptic weather reports for 39 years have been processed to provide a climatology of clouds for each of over 5000 land-based weather stations with long periods of record both day and night. For each station, this digital archive includes: multi-year annual, seasonal and monthly averages for day and night separately; seasonal and monthly averages by year; averages for eight times per day; and analyses of the first harmonic for the annual and diurnal cycles. Averages are given for total cloud cover, clear-sky frequency, and 9 cloud types: 5 in the low level (fog, St, Sc, Cu, Cb), 3 in the middle level (Ns, As, Ac) and one in the high level (all cirriform clouds combined). Cloud amounts and frequencies of occurrence are given for all types. In addition, non-overlapped amounts are given for middle and high cloud types, and average base heights are given for low cloud types. Nighttime averages were obtained by using only those reports that met an "illuminance criterion" (i.e., made under adequate moonlight or twilight), thus making possible the determination of diurnal cycles and nighttime trends for cloud types.The authors have also produced an online, gridded atlas of the cloud observations contained in NDP-026D. The Online Cloud Atlas containing NDP-026D data is available via the University of Washington.

Prelude to Cycle 23: The Case for a Fast-Rising, Large Amplitude Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1996-01-01

For the common data-available interval of cycles 12 to 22, we show that annual averages of sunspot number for minimum years (R(min)) and maximum years (R(max)) and of the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (aa(min)) are consistent with the notion that each has embedded within its respective record a long-term, linear, secular increase. Extrapolating each of these fits to cycle 23, we infer that it will have R(min) = 12.7 +/- 5.7, R(max) = 176.7 +/- 61.8, and aa(min) = 21.0 +/- 5.0 (at the 95-percent level of confidence), suggesting that cycle 23 will have R(min) greater than 7.0, R(max) greater than 114.9, and aa(min) greater than 16.0 (at the 97.5-percent level of confidence). Such values imply that cycle 23 will be larger than average in size and, consequently (by the Waidmeier effect), will be a fast riser. We also infer from the R(max) and aa(min) records the existence of an even- odd cycle effect, one in which the odd-following cycle is numerically larger in value than the even-leading cycle. For cycle 23, the even-odd cycle effect suggests that R(max) greater than 157.6 and aa(min) greater than 19.0, values that were recorded for cycle 22, the even-leading cycle of the current even-odd cycle pair (cycles 22 and 23). For 1995, the annual average of the aa index measured about 22, while for sunspot number, it was about 18. Because aa(min) usually lags R(min) by 1 year (true for 8 of 11 cycles) and 1996 seems destined to be the year of R(min) for cycle 23, it may be that aa(min) will occur in 1997, although it could occur in 1996 in conjunction with R(min) (true for 3 of 11 cycles). Because of this ambiguity in determining aa(min), no formal prediction based on the correlation of R(max) against aa(min), having r = 0.90, or of R(max) against the combined effects of R(min) and aa(min)-the bivariate technique-having r = 0.99, is possible until 1997, at the earliest.

Cradle-to-Gate Life-Cycle Inventory and Impact Assessment of Wood Fuel Pellet Manufacturing from Hardwood Flooring Residues in the Southeastern United States

Treesearch

Daniel Reed; Richard Bergman; Jae-Woo Kim; Adam Tayler; David Harper; David Jones; Chris Knowles; Maureen E. Puettmann

2012-01-01

In this article, we present cradle-to-gate life-cycle inventory (LCI) data for wood fuel pellets manufactured in the Southeast United States. We surveyed commercial pellet manufacturers in 2010, collecting annual production data for 2009. Weighted-average inputs to, and emissions from, the pelletization process were determined. The pellet making unit process was...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dubin, F S; Halfon, A; Herzog, P

The ice-generating HP-ICES uses the heat of fusion of water as a heat source for the heat pump, thus converting the water into ice. The ice will be stored in a bin and used the following summer for cooling which, therefore, could be considered a by-product of heating. The annual overall Coefficient of Performance is expected to reach a value of 4.85 and related to source energy a value of 4.85 x 0.31 = 1.5. In a detailed case study on the Market Square project in Washington, D.C., it was found that for the HP-ICES the annual source energy inputmore » is about 60% and the life cycle annual average cost is 40% of the corresponding quantities for a conventional central system with equal heating and cooling capacity. The annual average operating and administration cost for the HP-ICES is less than 70% of the corresponding costs for the conventional system, while the first cost of the HP-ICES is about 70% larger than the first cost of the conventional system. With the values assumed for the discount rate, interest rate, etc., the return on investment was found to be about 15%, which gives a discounted payback period of about 6.7 years. For the Park Plaza in Boston, the annual source energy input for the HP-ICES is 35% and the energy cost is about 30% of the corresponding quantities for the conventional system. The annual average operating and administration cost for the HP-ICES is 4.5 times as great as the first cost for the conventional system. The return on investment is 13% and the payback is 8 years. These results show that the HP-ICES can be better both in energy usage and in life cycle cost than a conventional system of the same heating and cooling capacity, and holds great promise as an energy saving system.« less

The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress in a model simulation of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacfic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dake; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Rothstein, Lewis M.

1994-01-01

The climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is simulated using a newly developed upper ocean model. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress are investigated in a hierarchy of numerical experiments with various combinations of vertical mixing algorithms and surface-forcing products. It is found that the large SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific is, to a large extent, controlled by the annually varying mixed layer depth which, in turn, is mainly determined by the competing effects of solar radiation and wind forcing. With the application of our hybrid vertical mixing scheme the model-simulated SST annual cycle is much improved in both amplitude and phase as compared to the case of a constant mixed layer depth. Beside the strong effects on vertical mixing, solar radiation is the primary heating term in the surface layer heat budget, and wind forcing influences SST by driving oceanic advective processes that redistribute heat in the upper ocean. For example, the SST seasonal cycle in the western Pacific basically follows the semiannual variation of solar heating, and the cycle in the central equatorial region is significantly affected by the zonal advective heat flux associated with the seasonally reversing South Equatorial Current. It has been shown in our experiments that the amount of heat flux modification needed to eliminate the annual mean SST errors in the model is, on average, no larger than the annual mean uncertainties among the various surface flux products used in this study. Whereas a bias correction is needed to account for remaining uncertainties in the annual mean heat flux, this study demonstrates that with proper treatment of mixed layer physics and realistic forcing functions the seasonal variability of SST is capable of being simulated successfully in response to external forcing without relying on a relaxation or damping formulation for the dominant surface heat flux contributions.

FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1989-2000

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-01

predict interim business cycles. FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS FISCAL YEARS 1989 - 2000 HISTORICAL FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH ECONOMIC ...During previous economic cycles, changes in the general aviation industry have generally paralleled changes in business activity. Empirical results have...FiFAA-APO 89- MARCH 198 US eat e T of 0rrs orci Fedra Aviatio Ad instato 0 NA II I1 Technical Report Documentation Page 1 ReotN.2. Government

Systems analysis techniques for annual cycle thermal energy storage solar systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baylin, F.

1980-07-01

Community-scale annual cycle thermal energy storage solar systems are options for building heat and cooling. A variety of approaches are feasible in modeling ACTES solar systems. The key parameter in such efforts, average collector efficiency, is examined, followed by several approaches for simple and effective modeling. Methods are also examined for modeling building loads for structures based on both conventional and passive architectural designs. Two simulation models for sizing solar heating systems with annual storage are presented. Validation is presented by comparison with the results of a study of seasonal storage systems based on SOLANSIM, an hour-by-hour simulation. These models are presently used to examine the economic trade-off between collector field area and storage capacity. Programs directed toward developing other system components such as improved tanks and solar ponds or design tools for ACTES solar systems are examined.

Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swenson, Sean; Milly, P.C.D.

2006-01-01

Satellite gravimetric observations of monthly changes in continental water storage are compared with outputs from five climate models. All models qualitatively reproduce the global pattern of annual storage amplitude, and the seasonal cycle of global average storage is reproduced well, consistent with earlier studies. However, global average agreements mask systematic model biases in low latitudes. Seasonal extrema of low‐latitude, hemispheric storage generally occur too early in the models, and model‐specific errors in amplitude of the low‐latitude annual variations are substantial. These errors are potentially explicable in terms of neglected or suboptimally parameterized water stores in the land models and precipitation biases in the climate models.

Hemispheric Differences in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Transport and Tracers Annual Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tweedy, Olga; Waugh, D.; Stolarski, R.; Oman, L.

2016-01-01

Transport of long-lived tracers (such as O, CO, and N O) in the lower stratosphere largely determines the composition of the entire stratosphere. Stratospheric transport includes the mean residual circulation (with air rising in the tropics and sinking in the polar and middle latitudes), plus two-way isentropic (quasi-horizontal) mixing by eddies. However, the relative importance of two transport components remains uncertain. Previous studies quantified the relative role of these processes based on tropics-wide average characteristics under common assumption of well-mixed tropics. However, multiple instruments provide us with evidence that show significant differences in the seasonal cycle of ozone between the Northern (0-20N) and Southern (0-20S) tropical (NT and ST respectively) lower stratosphere. In this study we investigate these differences in tracer seasonality and quantify transport processes affecting tracers annual cycle amplitude using simulations from Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and compare them to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite. We detect the observed contrast between the ST and NT in GEOSCCM and WACCM: annual cycle in ozone and other chemical tracers is larger in the NT than in the ST but opposite is true for the annual cycle in vertical advection. Ozone budgets in the models, analyzed based on the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) framework, demonstrate a major role of quasi-horizontal mixing vertical advection in determining the NTST ozone distribution and behavior. Analysis of zonal variations in the NT and ST ozone annual cycles further suggests important role of North American and Asian Summer Monsoons (associated with strong isentropic mixing) on the lower stratospheric ozone in the NT. Furthermore, multi model comparison shows that most CCMs reproduce the observed characteristic of ozone annual cycle quite well. Thus, latitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered in order to understand the balance between upwelling and quasi- horizontal mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere and the paradigm of well mixed tropics has to be reconsidered.

Seasonal and weekly variability of Atlantic inflow into the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, Peter; Berx, Bee; Gallego, Alejandro; Hall, Rob; Heywood, Karen

2017-04-01

Quantifying the variability of Atlantic inflow is necessary for managing the North Sea ecosystem and for producing accurate models for forecasting, for example, oil spill trajectories. The JONSIS hydrographic section (2.23°W to 0° at 59.28°N) crosses the path of the main inflow of Atlantic water into the northwestern North Sea. 122 occupations between 1989 and 2015 are examined to determine the annual cycle of thermohaline-driven volume transport into the North Sea. Thermohaline transport is at a minimum (0.1 Sv) during winter when it is driven by a horizontal salinity gradient across a zonal bottom front; it is at a maximum (0.35 Sv) in early autumn when it is driven by a horizontal temperature gradient that develops across the same front. The amplitude of the annual cycle of temperature-driven transport (0.15 Sv) is bigger than the amplitude of the annual cycle of salinity-driven transport (0.025 Sv). The annual cycles are approximately six months out of phase. Our quantitative results are the first to be based on a long-term dataset, and we advance previous understanding by identifying a salinity-driven flow in winter. Week-to-week variability of the Atlantic inflow is examined from ten Seaglider occupations of the JONSIS section in October and November 2013. Tidal ellipses produced from glider dive-average current observations are in good agreement with ellipses produced from tide model predictions. Total transport is derived by referencing geostrophic shear to dive-average-current observations once the tidal component of the flow has been removed. Total transport through the section during the deployment (0.5-1 Sv) is bigger than the thermohaline component (0.1-0.2 Sv), suggesting non-thermohaline forcings (e.g. wind forcing) are important at that time of year. Thermohaline transport during the glider deployment is in agreement with the annual cycle derived from the long-term observations. The addition of the glider-derived barotropic current permits a more accurate estimate of the transport than is possible from long-term hydrographic monitoring, and enables the separation of barotropic and depth-varying components. These results refine our understanding of the variability of Atlantic inflow into the North Sea on key timescales, and of the contribution of frontal flow to shelf sea circulation.

Impact of the Mountain Pine Beetle on the Forest Carbon Cycle in British Columbia from 1999 TO 2008 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J. M.; Czurylowicz, P.; Mo, G.; Black, T. A.

2013-12-01

The unprecedented mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) (MPB) outbreak in British Columbia starting in 1998 affected about 50% of the lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests occupying about 50% of the land area of the province. The impact of this outbreak on the C cycle is assessed in this study. Annual leaf area index (LAI) maps of the affected area from 1999 to 2008 were produced using SPOT VEGETATION data, and net ecosystem production (NEP) was modeled using inputs of LAI, land cover, soil texture and daily meteorological data with the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). Both LAI and NEP were validated using field measurements. LAI was found to decrease on average by 20% compared to pre-outbreak conditions, while NEP decreased on average by 90%. Annual NEP values ranged from 2.4 to -8.0 Tg C between 1999 and 2008, with the ecosystem changing from a carbon sink to a carbon source in 2000. The annual average NEP was -2.9 Tg C over the 10 years, resulting in a total loss of carbon of 29 Tg C to the atmosphere. The inter-annual variability of both LAI and NEP was characterized by substantial initial decreases followed by steady increases from 2006 to 2008 with NEP returning to near carbon neutrality in 2008 (-1.8 Pg C/y). The impact of this MPB outbreak appears to be less dramatic than previously anticipated. The apparent fast recovery of LAI and NEP after MPB attacks is examined under the framework of ecosystem resilience which was manifested in the form of secondary overstory and understory growth and increased production of non-attacked host trees.

Global Frequency and Distribution of Lightning as Observed from Space by the Optical Transient Detector

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christian, Hugh J.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Boccippio, Dennis J.; Boeck, William L.; Bucchler, Dennis E.; Driscoll, Kevin T.; Goodman, Steven J.; Hall, John M.; Koshak, William J.; Mach, Douglas M.;

How well the Reliable Ensemble Averaging Method (REA) for 15 CMIP5 GCMs simulations works for Mexico?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colorado, G.; Salinas, J. A.; Cavazos, T.; de Grau, P.

2013-05-01

15 CMIP5 GCMs precipitation simulations were combined in a weighted ensemble using the Reliable Ensemble Averaging (REA) method, obtaining the weight of each model. This was done for a historical period (1961-2000) and for the future emissions based on low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiating forcing for the period 2075-2099. The annual cycle of simple ensemble of the historical GCMs simulations, the historical REA average and the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS3.1) database was compared in four zones of México. In the case of precipitation we can see the improvements by using the REA method, especially in the two northern zones of México where the REA average is more close to the observations (CRU) that the simple average. However in the southern zones although there is an improvement it is not as good as it is in the north, particularly in the southeast where instead of the REA average is able to reproduce qualitatively good the annual cycle with the mid-summer drought it was greatly underestimated. The main reason is because the precipitation is underestimated for all the models and the mid-summer drought do not even exists in some models. In the REA average of the future scenarios, as we can expected, the most drastic decrease in precipitation was simulated using the RCP8.5 especially in the monsoon area and in the south of Mexico in summer and in winter. In the center and southern of Mexico however, the same scenario in autumn simulates an increase of precipitation.

On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index () in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the is inferred to correlate best against the parameter incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the and is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the , which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide () index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the and , the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period).

Long-term monitoring of airborne pollen in Alaska and the Yukon: Possible implications for global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, J.H.

Airborne pollen and spores have been sampled since 1978 in Fairbanks and 1982 Anchorage and other Alaska-Yukon locations for medical and ecological purposes. Comparative analyses of pre- and post-1986 data subsets reveal that after 1986 (1) pollen is in the air earlier, (2) the multiyear average of degree-days promoting pollen onset is little changed while (3) annual variation in degree-days at onset is greater, (4) pollen and spore annual productions are considerably higher, and (5) there is more year-to-year variation in pollen production. These changes probably reflect directional changes in certain weather variables, and there is some indication that theymore » are of global change significance, i.e., related to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Correlations with pollen data suggest that weather variables of high influence are temperatures during specific periods following pollen dispersal in the preceding year and the average temperature in April of the current year. Annual variations in pollen dispersal might be roughly linked to the 11 year sunspot cycle through air temperature mediators. Weather in 1990, apparent pollen production cycles under endogenous control, and the impending sunspot maximum portend a very severe pollen season in 199 existing but unfunded sampling projects.« less

Water: Rethinking Management in an Age of Scarcity. Worldwatch Paper 62.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Postel, Sandra

This document, which examines various topics and issues related to the management of freshwater supplies, is organized into 6 main sections. These sections include: (1) the water cycle and renewable supplies, providing data on distribution of such supplies by continent and average annual per capita runoff produced in selected countries with…

Effect of diversified crop rotations on groundwater levels and crop water productivity in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaolin; Chen, Yuanquan; Pacenka, Steven; Gao, Wangsheng; Ma, Li; Wang, Guangya; Yan, Peng; Sui, Peng; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2015-03-01

Water shortage is the major bottleneck that limits sustainable yield of agriculture in the North China Plain. Due to the over-exploitation of groundwater for irrigating the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping systems, a groundwater crisis is becoming increasingly serious. To help identify more efficient and sustainable utilization of the limited water resources, the water consumption and water use efficiency of five irrigated cropping systems were calculated and the effect of cropping systems on groundwater table changes was estimated based on a long term field experiment from 2003 to 2013 in the North China Plain interpreted using a soil-water-balance model. The five cropping systems included sweet potato → cotton → sweet potato → winter wheat-summer maize (SpCSpWS, 4-year cycle), ryegrass-cotton → peanuts → winter wheat-summer maize (RCPWS, 3-year cycle), peanuts → winter wheat-summer maize (PWS, 2-year cycle), winter wheat-summer maize (WS, 1-year cycle), and continuous cotton (Cont C). The five cropping systems had a wide range of annual average actual evapotranspiration (ETa): Cont C (533 mm/year) < SpCSpWS (556 mm/year) < PWS (615 mm/year) < RCPWS (650 mm/year) < WS rotation (734 mm/year). The sequence of the simulated annual average groundwater decline due to the five cropping systems was WS (1.1 m/year) > RCPWS (0.7 m/year) > PWS (0.6 m/year) > SPCSPWS and Cont C (0.4 m/year). The annual average economic output water use efficiency (WUEe) increased in the order SpCSpWS (11.6 yuan ¥ m-3) > RCPWS (9.0 ¥ m-3) > PWS (7.3 ¥ m-3) > WS (6.8 ¥ m-3) > Cont C (5.6 ¥ m-3) from 2003 to 2013. Results strongly suggest that diversifying crop rotations could play a critically important role in mitigating the over-exploitation of the groundwater, while ensuring the food security or boosting the income of farmers in the North China Plain.

A Gridded Climatology of Clouds over Land (1971-1996) and Ocean (1954-2008) from Surface Observations Worldwide (NDP-026E)*

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, C. J. [University of Arizona; Warren, S. G. [University of Washington

2007-01-01

Surface synoptic weather reports from ships and land stations worldwide were processed to produce a global cloud climatology which includes: total cloud cover, the amount and frequency of occurrence of nine cloud types within three levels of the troposphere, the frequency of occurrence of clear sky and of precipitation, the base heights of low clouds, and the non-overlapped amounts of middle and high clouds. Synoptic weather reports are made every three hours; the cloud information in a report is obtained visually by human observers. The reports used here cover the period 1971-96 for land and 1954-2008 for ocean. This digital archive provides multi-year monthly, seasonal, and annual averages in 5x5-degree grid boxes (or 10x10-degree boxes for some quantities over the ocean). Daytime and nighttime averages, as well as the diurnal average (average of day and night), are given. Nighttime averages were computed using only those reports that met an "illuminance criterion" (i.e., made under adequate moonlight or twilight), thus minimizing the "night-detection bias" and making possible the determination of diurnal cycles and nighttime trends for cloud types. The phase and amplitude of the first harmonic of both the diurnal cycle and the annual cycle are given for the various cloud types. Cloud averages for individual years are also given for the ocean for each of 4 seasons, and for each of the 12 months (daytime-only averages for the months). [Individual years for land are not gridded, but are given for individual stations in a companion data set, CDIAC's NDP-026D).] This analysis used 185 million reports from 5388 weather stations on continents and islands, and 50 million reports from ships; these reports passed a series of quality-control checks. This analysis updates (and in most ways supercedes) the previous cloud climatology constructed by the authors in the 1980s. Many of the long-term averages described here are mapped on the University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Web site. The Online Cloud Atlas containing NDP-026E data is available via the University of Washington.

Evaluation of the accuracy of an offline seasonally-varying matrix transport model for simulating ideal age

DOE PAGES

Bardin, Ann; Primeau, Francois; Lindsay, Keith; ...

2016-07-21

Newton-Krylov solvers for ocean tracers have the potential to greatly decrease the computational costs of spinning up deep-ocean tracers, which can take several thousand model years to reach equilibrium with surface processes. One version of the algorithm uses offline tracer transport matrices to simulate an annual cycle of tracer concentrations and applies Newton’s method to find concentrations that are periodic in time. Here we present the impact of time-averaging the transport matrices on the equilibrium values of an ideal-age tracer. We compared annually-averaged, monthly-averaged, and 5-day-averaged transport matrices to an online simulation using the ocean component of the Community Earthmore » System Model (CESM) with a nominal horizontal resolution of 1° × 1° and 60 vertical levels. We found that increasing the time resolution of the offline transport model reduced a low age bias from 12% for the annually-averaged transport matrices, to 4% for the monthly-averaged transport matrices, and to less than 2% for the transport matrices constructed from 5-day averages. The largest differences were in areas with strong seasonal changes in the circulation, such as the Northern Indian Ocean. As a result, for many applications the relatively small bias obtained using the offline model makes the offline approach attractive because it uses significantly less computer resources and is simpler to set up and run.« less

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.

Wind conditions on migration influence the annual survival of a neotropical migrant, the western yellow-breasted chat (Icteria virens auricollis).

PubMed

Huang, Andrew C; Bishop, Christine A; McKibbin, René; Drake, Anna; Green, David J

2017-08-10

Long-distance migratory birds in North America have undergone precipitous declines over the past half-century. Although the trend is clear, for many migrating species underpinning the exact causes poses a challenge to conservation due to the numerous stressors that they encounter. Climate conditions during all phases of their annual cycle can have important consequences for their survival. Here, using 15 years of capture-recapture dataset, we determined the effects of various climate factors during the breeding, wintering, and migrating stages on the annual survival of a western yellow-breasted chat (Icteria virens auricollis) population breeding in southwestern Canada. El Niño effects over the entire annual cycle had little influence on the annual apparent survival of yellow-breasted chats. However, we found evidence that wind conditions during migration, specifically average westerly wind speed or the frequency of storm events, had significant adverse effects on adult annual apparent survival. In comparison, precipitation levels on wintering ground had little to no influence on adult annual apparent survival, whereas growing degree days on the breeding ground had moderate but positive effects. In the face of climate change and its predicted impacts on climate processes, understanding the influence of weather conditions on the survival of migrating birds can allow appropriate conservation strategies to be adopted for chats and other declining neotropical migrants.

The carbon cycle and hurricanes in the United States between 1900 and 2011.

PubMed

Dahal, Devendra; Liu, Shuguang; Oeding, Jennifer

2014-06-06

Hurricanes cause severe impacts on forest ecosystems in the United States. These events can substantially alter the carbon biogeochemical cycle at local to regional scales. We selected all tropical storms and more severe events that made U.S. landfall between 1900 and 2011 and used hurricane best track database, a meteorological model (HURRECON), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), U. S. Department of Agirculture Forest Service biomass dataset, and pre- and post-MODIS data to quantify individual event and annual biomass mortality. Our estimates show an average of 18.2 TgC/yr of live biomass mortality for 1900-2011 in the US with strong spatial and inter-annual variability. Results show Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused the highest aboveground biomass mortality with 59.5 TgC. Similarly 1954 had the highest annual mortality with 68.4 TgC attributed to landfalling hurricanes. The results presented are deemed useful to further investigate historical events, and the methods outlined are potentially beneficial to quantify biomass loss in future events.

Atlas of the global distribution of atmospheric heating during the global weather experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

1991-01-01

Global distributions of atmospheric heating for the annual cycle of the Global Weather Experiment are estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Level 3b data set. Distributions of monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged heating are presented for isentropic and isobaric layers within the troposphere and for the troposphere as a whole. The distributions depict a large-scale structure of atmospheric heating that appears spatially and temporally consistent with known features of the global circulation and the seasonal evolution.

Water and tritium movement through the unsaturated zone at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Illinois, 1981-85

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Patrick C.; Healy, Richard W.

1993-01-01

The movement of water and tritium through the unsaturated zone was studied at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Bureau County, Illinois, from 1981 to 1985. Water and tritium movement occurred in an annual, seasonally timed cycle; recharge to the saturated zone generally occurred in the spring and early summer. Mean annual precipitation (1982-85) was 871 mm (millimeters); mean annual recharge to the disposal trenches (July 1982 through June 1984) was estimated to be 107 mm. Average annual tritium flux below the study trenches was estimated to be 3.4 mCi/yr (millicuries per year). Site geology, climate, and waste-disposal practices influenced the spatial and temporal variability of water and tritium movement. Of the components of the water budget, evapotranspiration contributed most to the temporal variability of water and tritium movement. Disposal trenches are constructed in complexly layered glacial and postglacial deposits that average 17 m (meters) in thickness and overlie a thick sequence of Pennsylvanian shale. The horizontal saturated hydraulic conductivity of the clayey-silt to sand-sized glacial and postglacial deposits ranges from 4.8x10 -1 to 3.4x10 4 mm/d (millimeters per day). A 120-m-long horizontal tunnel provided access for hydrologic measurements and collection of sediment and water samples from the unsaturated and saturated geologic deposits below four disposal trenches. Trench-cover and subtrench deposits were monitored with soil-moisture tensiometers, vacuum and gravity lysimeters, piezometers, and a nuclear soil-moisture gage. A cross-sectional, numerical ground-water-flow model was used to simulate water movement in the variably saturated geologic deposits in the tunnel area. Concurrent studies at the site provided water-budget data for estimating recharge to the disposal trenches. Vertical water movement directly above the trenches was impeded by a zone of compaction within the clayey-silt trench covers. Water entered the trenches primarily at the trench edges where the compacted zone was absent and the cover was relatively thin. Collapse holes in the trench covers that resulted from inadequate compaction of wastes within the trenches provided additional preferential pathways for surface-water drainage into the trenches; drainage into one collapse hole during a rainstorm was estimated to be 1,700 L (liters). Till deposits near trench bases induced lateral water and tritium movement. Limited temporal variation in water movement and small flow gradients (relative to the till deposits) were detected in the unsaturated subtrench sand deposit; maximum gradients during the spring recharge period averaged 1.62 mm/mm (millimeter per millimeter). Time-of-travel of water moving from the trench covers to below the trenches was estimated to be as rapid as 41 days (assuming individual water molecules move this distance in one recharge cycle). Tritium concentrations in water from the unsaturated zone ranged from 200 (background) to 10,000,000 pCi/L (picocuries per liter). Tritium concentrations generally were higher below trench bases (averaging 91,000 pCi/L) than below intertrench sediments (averaging 3,300 pCi/L), and in the subtrench Toulon Member of the Glasford Formation (sand) (averaging 110,000 pCi/L) than in the Hulick Till Member of the Glasford Formation (clayey silt) (averaging 59,000 pCi/L). Average subtrench tritium concentration increased from 28,000 to 100,000 pCi/L during the study period. Within the trench covers, there was a strong seasonal trend in tritium concentrations; the highest concentrations occurred in late summer when soil-moisture contents were at a minimum. Subtrench tritium movement occurred in association with the annual cycle of water movement, as well as independently of the cycle, in apparent response to continuous water movement through the subtrench sand deposits and to the deterioration of trench-waste containers. The increase in concen

Water and tritium movement through the unsaturated zone at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Illinois, 1981-85

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Patrick C.; Healy, R.W.

1991-01-01

The movement of water and tritium through the unsaturated zone was studied at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Bureau County, Illinois, from 1981 to 1985. Water and tritium movement occurred in an annual, seasonally timed cycle; recharge to the saturated zone generally occurred in the spring and early summer. Mean annual precipitation (1982-85) was 871 millimeters; mean annual recharge to the disposal trenches (July 1982 through June 1984) was estimated to be 107 millimeters. Average annual tritium flux below the study trenches was estimated to be 3.4 millicuries per year. Site geology, climate, and waste-disposal practices influenced the spatial and temporal variability of water and tritium movement. Of the components of the water budget, evapotranspiration contributed most to the temporal variability of water and tritium movement. Disposal trenches are constructed in complexly layered glacial and postglacial deposits that average 17 meters in thickness and overlie a thick sequence of Pennsylvanian shale. The horizontal saturated hydraulic conductivity of the clayey-silt to sand-sized glacial and postglacial deposits ranges from 4.8x10^-1 to 3.4x10^4 millimeters per day. A 120-meter-long horizontal tunnel provided access for hydrologic measurements and collection of sediment and water samples from the unsaturated and saturated geologic deposits below four disposal trenches. Trench-cover and subtrench deposits were monitored with soil-moisture tensiometers, vacuum and gravity lysimeters, piezometers, and a nuclear soil-moisture gage. A cross-sectional, numerical ground-water-flow model was used to simulate water movement in the variably saturated geologic deposits in the tunnel area. Concurrent studies at the site provided water-budget data for estimating recharge to the disposal trenches. Vertical water movement directly above the trenches was impeded by a zone of compaction within the clayey-silt trench covers. Water entered the trenches primarily at the trench edges where the compacted zone was absent and the cover was relatively thin. Collapse holes in the trench covers that resulted from inadequate compaction of wastes within the trenches provided additional preferential pathways for surface-water drainage into the trenches; drainage into one collapse hole during a rainstorm was estimated to be 1,700 liters. Till deposits near trench bases induced lateral water and tritium movement. Limited temporal variation in water movement and small flow gradients (relative to the till deposits) were detected in the unsaturated subtrench sand deposit; maximum gradients during the spring recharge period averaged 1.62 millimeters per millimeter. Time-of-travel of water moving from the trench covers to below the trenches was estimated to be as rapid as 41 days (assuming individual water molecules move this distance in one recharge cycle). Tritium concentrations in water from the unsaturated zone ranged from 200 (background) to 10,000,000 pCi/L (picocuries per liter). Tritium concentrations generally were higher below trench bases (averaging 91,000 pCi/L) than below intertrench sediments (averaging 3,300 pCi/L), and in the subtrench Toulon Member of the Glasford Formation (sand) (averaging 110,000 pCi/L) than in the Hulick Till Member of the Glasford Formation (clayey silt) (averaging 59,000 pCi/L). Average subtrench tritium concentration increased from 28,000 to 100,000 pCi/L during the study period. Within the trench covers, there was a strong seasonal trend in tritium concentrations; the highest concentrations occurred in late summer when soil-moisture contents were at a minimum. Subtrench tritium movement occurred in association with the annual cycle of water movement, as well as independently of the cycle, in apparent response to continuous water movement through the subtrench sand deposits and to the deterioration of trench-waste containers. The increase in concentrations of tritium with incre

A climatology of the California Current System from a network of underwater gliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudnick, Daniel L.; Zaba, Katherine D.; Todd, Robert E.; Davis, Russ E.

2017-05-01

Autonomous underwater gliders offer the possibility of sustained observation of the coastal ocean. Since 2006 Spray underwater gliders in the California Underwater Glider Network (CUGN) have surveyed along California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) lines 66.7, 80.0, and 90.0, constituting the world's longest sustained glider network, to our knowledge. In this network, gliders dive between the surface and 500 m, completing a cycle in 3 h and covering 3 km in that time. Sections extend 350-500 km offshore and take 2-3 weeks to occupy. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, and depth-average velocity. The CUGN has amassed over 10,000 glider-days, covering over 210,000 km with over 95,000 dives. These data are used to produce a climatology whose products are for each variable a mean field, an annual cycle, and the anomaly from the annual cycle. The analysis includes a weighted least-squares fit to derive the mean and annual cycle, and an objective map to produce the anomaly. The final results are variables on rectangular grids in depth, distance offshore, and time. The mean fields are finely resolved sections across the main flows in the California Current System, including the poleward California Undercurrent and the equatorward California Current. The annual cycle shows a phase change from the surface to the thermocline, reflecting the effects of air/sea fluxes at the surface and upwelling in the thermocline. The interannual anomalies are examined with an emphasis on climate events of the last ten years including the 2009-2010 El Niño, the 2010-2011 La Niña, the warm anomaly of 2014-2015, and the 2015-2016 El Niño.

Future ocean hypercapnia driven by anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO2 cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeil, B.

2016-02-01

Elevated carbon dioxide concentrations in seawater (hypercapnia) can induce neurological, physiological and behavioural deficiencies in marine animals. Prediction of the onset and evolution of hypercapnia in the ocean requires a good understanding of annual oceanic carbon dioxide variability, but relevant global observational data are sparse. Here we diagnose global ocean patterns of monthly carbon variability based on observations that allow us to examine the evolution of surface ocean CO2 levels over the entire annual cycle under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that some oceanic regions undergo an up to 10-fold amplification of the natural cycle of CO2 by 2100, if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise throughout this century (RCP8.5). Projections from a suite of Earth System Climate Models are broadly consistent with the findings from our data based approach. Our predicted amplification in the annual CO2 cycle displays distinct global patterns that may expose major fisheries in the Southern, Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans to high CO2 events many decades earlier than expected from average atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We suggest that these ocean 'CO2 hotspots' evolve as a combination of the strong seasonal dynamics of CO2 and the long-term effective storage of anthropogenic CO2 that lowers the buffer capacity in those regions, causing a non-linear CO2 amplification over the annual cycle. The onset of ocean hypercapnia events (pCO2 >1000 µatm) is forecast for atmospheric CO2 concentrations that exceed 650 ppm, with hypercapnia spreading to up to one half of the surface ocean by the year 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) with potential implications for fisheries over the coming century.

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

Modeling thermospheric neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying

Satellite drag prediction requires determination of thermospheric neutral density. The NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) and the global-mean Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM) were used to quantify thermospheric neutral density and its variations, focusing on annual/semiannual variation, the effect of using measured solar irradiance on model calculations of solar-cycle variation, and global change in the thermosphere. Satellite drag data and the MSIS00 empirical model were utilized to compare to the TIEGCM simulations. The TIEGCM simulations indicated that eddy diffusion and its annual/semiannual variation is a mechanism for annual/semiannual density variation in the thermosphere. It was found that eddy diffusion near the turbopause can effectively influence thermospheric neutral density. Eddy diffusion, together with annual insolation variation and large-scale circulation, generated global annual/semiannual density variation observed by satellite drag. Using measured solar irradiance as solar input for the TIEGCM improved the solar-cycle dependency of the density calculation shown in F10.7 -based thermospheric empirical models. It has been found that the empirical models overestimate density at low solar activity. The TIEGCM simulations did not show such solar-cycle dependency. Using historic measurements of CO2 and F 10.7, simulations of the global-mean TIMEGCM showed that thermospheric neutral density at 400 km had an average long-term decrease of 1.7% per decade from 1970 to 2000. A forecast of density decrease for solar cycle 24 suggested that thermospheric density will decrease at 400 km from present to the end of solar cycle 24 at a rate of 2.7% per decade. Reduction in thermospheric density causes less atmospheric drag on earth-orbiting space objects. The implication of this long-term decrease of thermospheric neutral density is that it will increase the lifetime of satellites, but also it will increase the amount of space junk.

Analysis of the breakdown of the Antarctic circumpolar vortex using TOMS ozone data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, Kenneth P.

1987-01-01

Climatological analysis of data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on the Nimbus 7 satellite has shown that the annual cycles of ozone are very different in the Arctic and Antarctic. The annual cycle in the Arctic is a relatively smooth annual sine wave; but in the Antarctic the circumpolar vortex breaks down rapidly during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September through November), producing a rapid rise in total ozone and a sawtooth-shaped annual cycle. The evolution of the Antarctic total ozone field during the vortex breakdown was studied by computing areally-integrated ozone amounts from the TOMS data. This technique avoids substantial difficulties with using zonally-averaged ozone amounts to study the asymmetric breakdown phenomenon. Variability of total ozone is found to be large both within an individual year and between different years. During the last decade monthly-mean total ozone values in the Antarctic during the springtime vortex breakdown period have decreased dramatically. The ozone-area statistics indicate that the decrease has resulted in part from changes in the timing of the vortex breakdown and resultant ozone increase, which have occurred later during recent years. Analysis of the spatial scales involved in the ozone transport and mixing that occur during the vortex breakdown is now underway. Reliable calculation of diagnostic quantities like areally-integrated ozone is possible only with the high-resolution, two-dimensional, daily coverage provided by the TOMS instrument.

Comparison of methods for extracting annual cycle with changing amplitude in climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Q.; Fu, Z.

2017-12-01

Changes of annual cycle gains a growing concern recently. The basic hypothesis regards annual cycle as constant. Climatology mean within a time period is usually used to depict the annual cycle. Obviously this hypothesis contradicts with the fact that annual cycle is changing every year. For the lack of a unified definition about annual cycle, the approaches adopted in extracting annual cycle are various and may lead to different results. The precision and validity of these methods need to be examined. In this work we numerical experiments with known monofrequent annual cycle are set to evaluate five popular extracting methods: fitting sinusoids, complex demodulation, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Nonlinear Mode Decomposition (NMD) and Seasonal trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). Three different types of changing amplitude will be generated: steady, linear increasing and nonlinearly varying. Comparing the annual cycle extracted by these methods with the generated annual cycle, we find that (1) NMD performs best in depicting annual cycle itself and its amplitude change, (2) fitting sinusoids, complex demodulation and EEMD methods are more sensitive to long-term memory(LTM) of generated time series thus lead to overfitting annual cycle and too noisy amplitude, oppositely the result of STL underestimate the amplitude variation (3)all of them can present the amplitude trend correctly in long-time scale but the errors on account of noise and LTM are common in some methods over short time scales.

Annual incidence of mortality related to hypertensive disease in Canada and associations with heliophysical parameters.

PubMed

Caswell, Joseph M; Carniello, Trevor N; Murugan, Nirosha J

2016-01-01

Increasing research into heliobiology and related fields has revealed a myriad of potential relationships between space weather factors and terrestrial biology. Additionally, many studies have indicated cyclicity in incidence of various diseases along with many aspects of cardiovascular function. The current study examined annual mortality associated with hypertensive diseases in Canada from 1979 to 2009 for periodicities and linear relationships with a range of heliophysical parameters. Analyses indicated a number of significant lagged correlations between space weather and hypertensive mortality, with solar wind plasma beta identified as the likely source of these relationships. Similar periodicities were observed for geomagnetic activity and hypertensive mortality. A significant rhythm was revealed for hypertensive mortality centered on a 9.6-year cycle length, while geomagnetic activity was fit with a 10.1-year cycle. Cross-correlograms of mortality with space weather demonstrated a 10.67-year periodicity coinciding with the average 10.6-year solar cycle length for the time period examined. Further quantification and potential implications are discussed.

Annual incidence of mortality related to hypertensive disease in Canada and associations with heliophysical parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caswell, Joseph M.; Carniello, Trevor N.; Murugan, Nirosha J.

2016-01-01

Increasing research into heliobiology and related fields has revealed a myriad of potential relationships between space weather factors and terrestrial biology. Additionally, many studies have indicated cyclicity in incidence of various diseases along with many aspects of cardiovascular function. The current study examined annual mortality associated with hypertensive diseases in Canada from 1979 to 2009 for periodicities and linear relationships with a range of heliophysical parameters. Analyses indicated a number of significant lagged correlations between space weather and hypertensive mortality, with solar wind plasma beta identified as the likely source of these relationships. Similar periodicities were observed for geomagnetic activity and hypertensive mortality. A significant rhythm was revealed for hypertensive mortality centered on a 9.6-year cycle length, while geomagnetic activity was fit with a 10.1-year cycle. Cross-correlograms of mortality with space weather demonstrated a 10.67-year periodicity coinciding with the average 10.6-year solar cycle length for the time period examined. Further quantification and potential implications are discussed.

Pennsylvania forests 2014

Treesearch

Thomas A. Albright; William H. McWilliams; Richard H. Widmann; Brett J. Butler; Susan J. Crocker; Cassandra M. Kurtz; Shawn Lehman; Tonya W. Lister; Patrick D. Miles; Randall S. Morin; Rachel Riemann; James E. Smith

2017-01-01

This report summarizes the third cycle of annualized inventory of Pennsylvania with field data collected from 2009 through 2014. Pennsylvania has 16.9 million acres of forest land dominated by sawtimber stands of oak/hickory and maple/beech/birch forest-type groups. Volumes continue to increase as the forests age with an average of 2,244 cubic feet per acre on...

Hemispheric Differences in the Annual Cycle of Tropical Lower Stratosphere Transport and Tracers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tweedy, O. V.; Waugh, D. W.; Stolarski, R. S.; Oman, Luke D.; Randel, W. J.; Abalos, M.

2017-01-01

Transport in the tropical lower stratosphere plays a major role in determining the composition of the entire stratosphere. Previous studies that quantified the relative role of transport processes have generally assumed well-mixed tropics and focused on tropical-�wide average characteristics. However, it has recently been shown that there is a hemispheric difference in the annual cycle of tropical lower stratosphere ozone and other tracers, with a larger amplitude in the northern tropics (NT) than in the southern tropics (ST). In this study, we examined the ability of chemistry climate models (CCMs) to reproduce the hemispheric differences in ozone (O3) and other tracers (i.e., hydrochloric acid, or HCl and nitrous oxide, or N2O), and then use the CCMs to examine the cause of these differences. Examination of CCM simulations from the CCMVal-2 project shows that the majority of the CCMs produce the observed feature of a larger annual cycle in the NT than ST O3 and other tracers. However, only around a third of the models produce an ozone annual cycle similar to that observed. Transformed Eulerian Mean analysis of two of the CCMs shows that seasonality in vertical advection drives the seasonality in ST O3 and N2O while seasonality of horizontal mixing drives the seasonality in NT O3 and N2O, with a large increase in horizontal mixing during northern summer (associated with the Asian monsoon). Thus, latitudinal and longitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered to fully understand the balance between transport processes in tropical lower stratosphere.

Observations of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a) at AGAGE and SOGE monitoring stations in 1994-2004 and derived global and regional emission estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greally, B. R.; Manning, A. J.; Reimann, S.; McCulloch, A.; Huang, J.; Dunse, B. L.; Simmonds, P. G.; Prinn, R. G.; Fraser, P. J.; Cunnold, D. M.; O'Doherty, S.; Porter, L. W.; Stemmler, K.; Vollmer, M. K.; Lunder, C. R.; Schmidbauer, N.; Hermansen, O.; Arduini, J.; Salameh, P. K.; Krummel, P. B.; Wang, R. H. J.; Folini, D.; Weiss, R. F.; Maione, M.; Nickless, G.; Stordal, F.; Derwent, R. G.

2007-03-01

Ground-based in situ measurements of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH3CHF2) which is regulated under the Kyoto Protocol are reported under the auspices of the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) and SOGE (System of Observation of halogenated Greenhouse gases in Europe) programs. Observations of HFC-152a at five locations (four European and one Australian) over a 10 year period were recorded. The annual average growth rate of HFC-152a in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere has risen from 0.11 ppt/yr to 0.6 ppt/yr from 1994 to 2004. The Southern Hemisphere annual average growth rate has risen from 0.09 ppt/yr to 0.4 ppt/yr from 1998 to 2004. The 2004 average mixing ratio for HFC-152a was 5.0 ppt and 1.8 ppt in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively. The annual cycle observed for this species in both hemispheres is approximately consistent with measured annual cycles at the same locations in other gases which are destroyed by OH. Yearly global emissions of HFC-152a from 1994 to 2004 are derived using the global mean HFC-152a observations and a 12-box 2-D model. The global emission of HFC-152a has risen from 7 Kt/yr to 28 Kt/yr from 1995 to 2004. On the basis of observations of above-baseline elevations in the HFC-152a record and a consumption model, regional emission estimates for Europe and Australia are calculated, indicating accelerating emissions from Europe since 2000. The overall European emission in 2004 ranges from 1.5 to 4.0 Kt/year, 5-15% of global emissions for 1,1-difluoroethane, while the Australian contribution is negligible at 5-10 tonnes/year, <0.05% of global emissions.

The predicted CLARREO sampling error of the inter-annual SW variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doelling, D. R.; Keyes, D. F.; Nguyen, C.; Macdonnell, D.; Young, D. F.

2009-12-01

The NRC Decadal Survey has called for SI traceability of long-term hyper-spectral flux measurements in order to monitor climate variability. This mission is called the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and is currently defining its mission requirements. The requirements are focused on the ability to measure decadal change of key climate variables at very high accuracy. The accuracy goals are set using anticipated climate change magnitudes, but the accuracy achieved for any given climate variable must take into account the temporal and spatial sampling errors based on satellite orbits and calibration accuracy. The time period to detect a significant trend in the CLARREO record depends on the magnitude of the sampling calibration errors relative to the current inter-annual variability. The largest uncertainty in climate feedbacks remains the effect of changing clouds on planetary energy balance. Some regions on earth have strong diurnal cycles, such as maritime stratus and afternoon land convection; other regions have strong seasonal cycles, such as the monsoon. However, when monitoring inter-annual variability these cycles are only important if the strength of these cycles vary on decadal time scales. This study will attempt to determine the best satellite constellations to reduce sampling error and to compare the error with the current inter-annual variability signal to ensure the viability of the mission. The study will incorporate Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) (Monthly TOA/Surface Averages) SRBAVG product TOA LW and SW climate quality fluxes. The fluxes are derived by combining Terra (10:30 local equator crossing time) CERES fluxes with 3-hourly 5-geostationary satellite estimated broadband fluxes, which are normalized using the CERES fluxes, to complete the diurnal cycle. These fluxes were saved hourly during processing and considered the truth dataset. 90°, 83° and 74° inclination precessionary orbits as well as sun-synchronous orbits will be evaluated. This study will focus on the SW radiance, since these low earth orbits are only in daylight for half the orbit. The precessionary orbits were designed to cycle through all solar zenith angles over the course of a year. The inter-annual variability sampling error will be stratified globally/zonally and annually/seasonally and compared with the corresponding truth anomalies.

Studying Basin Water Balance Variations at Inter- and Intra-annual Time Scales Based On the Budyko Hypothesis and GRACE Gravimetry Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, H.

2017-12-01

Increasing intensity in global warming and anthropogenic activities has triggered significant changes over regional climates and landscapes, which, in turn, drive the basin water cycle and hydrological balance into a complex and unstable state. Budyko hypothesis is a powerful tool to characterize basin water balance and hydrological variations at long-term average scale. However, due to the absence of basin water storage change, applications of Budyko theory to the inter-annual and intra-annual time scales has been prohibited. The launch of GRACE gavimetry satellites provides a great opportunity to quantify terrestrial water storage change, which can be further introduced into the Budyko hypothesis to reveal the inter- and intra-annual response of basin water components under impacts of climate variability and/or human activities. This research targeted Hai River Basin (in China) and Murray-Darling Basin (in Australia), which have been identified with a continuous groundwater depletion trend as well as impacts by extreme climates in the past decade. This can help us to explore how annual or seasonal precipitation were redistributed to evapotranspiration and runoff via changing basin water storage. Moreover, the impacts of vegetation on annual basin water balance will be re-examined. Our results are expected to provide deep insights about the water cycle and hydrological behaviors for the targeted basins, as well as a proof for a consideration of basin water storage change into the Budyko model at inter- or intra-annual time steps.

Growth reductions in naturally regenerated southern pine stands in Alabama and Georgia

Treesearch

G.A. Ruark; C.E. Thomas; W.A. Bechtold; D.M. May

1991-01-01

Data from Forest Inventory and analysis (FIA) units of the USDA Forest Service were used to compare average annual stand-level basal area accretion onto survivor pines in naturally regenerated pine stands throughout Alabama and Georgia. Growth rates measured between 1972-82 were compared to growth rates during the previous 10-year survey cycle in each state. Separate...

Interseasonal movements of greater sage-grouse, migratory behavior, and an assessment of the core regions concept in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, Bradley C.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Beck, Jeffrey L.; Bedrosian, Bryan; Holloran, Matthew J.; Johnson, Gregory D.; Kaczor, Nicholas W.; Kirol, Christopher P.; Mandich, Cheryl A.; Marshall, David; McKee, Gwyn; Olson, Chad; Swanson, Christopher C.; Walker, Brett L.

2012-01-01

Animals can require different habitat types throughout their annual cycles. When considering habitat prioritization, we need to explicitly consider habitat requirements throughout the annual cycle, particularly for species of conservation concern. Understanding annual habitat requirements begins with quantifying how far individuals move across landscapes between key life stages to access required habitats. We quantified individual interseasonal movements for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) using radio-telemetry spanning the majority of the species distribution in Wyoming. Sage-grouse are currently a candidate for listing under the United States Endangered Species Act and Wyoming is predicted to remain a stronghold for the species. Sage-grouse use distinct seasonal habitats throughout their annual cycle for breeding, brood rearing, and wintering. Average movement distances in Wyoming from nest sites to summer-late brood-rearing locations were 8.1 km (SE = 0.3 km; n = 828 individuals) and the average subsequent distances moved from summer sites to winter locations were 17.3 km (SE = 0.5 km; n = 607 individuals). Average nest-to-winter movements were 14.4 km (SE = 0.6 km; n = 434 individuals). We documented remarkable variation in the extent of movement distances both within and among sites across Wyoming, with some individuals remaining year-round in the same vicinity and others moving over 50 km between life stages. Our results suggest defining any of our populations as migratory or non-migratory is innappropriate as individual strategies vary widely. We compared movement distances of birds marked using Global Positioning System (GPS) and very high frequency (VHF) radio marking techniques and found no evidence that the heavier GPS radios limited movement. Furthermore, we examined the capacity of the sage-grouse core regions concept to capture seasonal locations. As expected, we found the core regions approach, which was developed based on lek data, was generally better at capturing the nesting locations than summer or winter locations. However, across Wyoming the sage-grouse breeding core regions still contained a relatively high percentage of summer and winter locations and seem to be a reasonable surrogate for non-breeding habitat when no other information exists. We suggest that conservation efforts for greater sage-grouse implicitly incorporate seasonal habitat needs because of high variation in the amount of overlap among breeding core regions and non-breeding habitat.

The Modulated Annual Cycle: An Alternative Reference Frame for Climate Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2007-12-01

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle (AC). There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, the annual cycle is taken to be an exact repetition of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this study, we have reexamined the reference frame for anomalies by reexamining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle. We therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of an MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we reexamine some familiar physical processes: in particular, the sea surface temperature (SST) reemergence and the ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. Two additional examples are also presented of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as "decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate" for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. We also point out the drawbacks related to the stationary assumption in previous studies of extreme weather and climate and propose instead the appropriateness of choosing a non-stationary framework to study extreme weather and climate events. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change.

The modulated annual cycle: an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhaohua; Schneider, Edwin K.; Kirtman, Ben P.; Sarachik, E. S.; Huang, Norden E.; Tucker, Compton J.

2008-12-01

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle. There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, this annual cycle is taken to be an exact repeat of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this paper, we re-examine the reference frame for anomalies by re-examining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle: we therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of a MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we re-examine some familiar physical processes: in particular SST re-emergence and ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of an explanation of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. In addition to the examples of reinterpretation of physics of well known climate phenomena, we also present an example of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as “decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate” for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change.

Observed Seasonal to Decadal-Scale Responses in Mesospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis

2010-01-01

The 14-yr (1991-2005) time series of mesospheric water vapor from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques for their6 seasonal and longer-period terms from 45S to 45N. The distribution of annual average water vapor shows a decrease from a maximum of 6.5 ppmv at 0.2 hPa to about 3.2 ppmv at 0.01 hPa, in accord with the effects of the photolysis of water vapor due to the Lyman-flux. The distribution of the semi-annual cycle amplitudes is nearly hemispherically symmetric at the low latitudes, while that of the annual cycles show larger amplitudes in the northern hemisphere. The diagnosed 11-yr, or solar cycle, max minus min, water vapor values are of the order of several percent at 0.2 hPa to about 23% at 0.01 hPa. The solar cycle terms have larger values in the northern than in the southern hemisphere, particularly in the middle mesosphere, and the associated linear trend terms are anomalously large in the same region. Those anomalies are due, at least in part, to the fact that the amplitudes of the seasonal cycles were varying at northern mid latitudes during 1991-2005, while the corresponding seasonal terms of the MLR model do not allow for that possibility. Although the 11-yr variation in water vapor is essentially hemispherically-symmetric and anti-phased with the solar cycle flux near 0.01 hPa, the concurrent temperature variations produce slightly colder conditions at the northern high latitudes at solar minimum. It is concluded that this temperature difference is most likely the reason for the greater occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds at the northern versus the southern high latitudes at solar minimum during the HALOE time period.

The impact of biotic/abiotic interfaces in mineral nutrient cycling: A study of soils of the Santa Cruz chronosequence, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Art F.; Schulz, Marjorie S.; Vivit, Davison V.; Bullen, Tomas D.; Fitzpatrick, John A.

2012-01-01

The fraction of a mineral nutrient annually cycled through the plants, compared to that lost from pore water discharge, is defined their respective fluxes Fj,plants = qj,plants/(qj,plants + qj,discharge) with average values for K and Ca (FK,plants = 0.99; FCa,plants = 0.93) much higher than for Mg and Na (FMg,plants 0.64; FNa,plants = 0.28). The discrimination against Rb and Sr by plants is described by fractionation factors (KSr/Ca = 0.86; KRb/K = 0.83) which are used in Rayleigh fractionation-mixing calculations to fit seasonal patterns in solute K and Ca cycling. KRb/K and K24Mg/22Mg values (derived from isotope data in the literature) fall within fractionation envelopes bounded by inputs from rainfall and mineral weathering. KSr/Ca and K44Ca/40Ca fractionation factors fall outside these envelopes indicating that Ca nutrient cycling is closed to these external inputs. Small net positive K and Ca fluxes (6–14 mol m-2 yr-1), based on annual mass balances, indicate that the soils are accumulating mineral nutrients, probably as a result of long-term environmental disequilibrium.

The Carbon Cycle and Hurricanes in the United States between 1900 and 2011

PubMed Central

Dahal, Devendra; Liu, Shuguang; Oeding, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Hurricanes cause severe impacts on forest ecosystems in the United States. These events can substantially alter the carbon biogeochemical cycle at local to regional scales. We selected all tropical storms and more severe events that made U.S. landfall between 1900 and 2011 and used hurricane best track database, a meteorological model (HURRECON), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), U. S. Department of Agirculture Forest Service biomass dataset, and pre- and post-MODIS data to quantify individual event and annual biomass mortality. Our estimates show an average of 18.2 TgC/yr of live biomass mortality for 1900–2011 in the US with strong spatial and inter-annual variability. Results show Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused the highest aboveground biomass mortality with 59.5 TgC. Similarly 1954 had the highest annual mortality with 68.4 TgC attributed to landfalling hurricanes. The results presented are deemed useful to further investigate historical events, and the methods outlined are potentially beneficial to quantify biomass loss in future events. PMID:24903486

The carbon cycle and hurricanes in the United States between 1900 and 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dahal, Devendra; Liu, Shu-Guang; Oeding, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Hurricanes cause severe impacts on forest ecosystems in the United States. These events can substantially alter the carbon biogeochemical cycle at local to regional scales. We selected all tropical storms and more severe events that made U.S. landfall between 1900 and 2011 and used hurricane best track database, a meteorological model (HURRECON), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), U. S. Department of Agirculture Forest Service biomass dataset, and pre- and post-MODIS data to quantify individual event and annual biomass mortality. Our estimates show an average of 18.2 TgC/yr of live biomass mortality for 1900–2011 in the US with strong spatial and inter-annual variability. Results show Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused the highest aboveground biomass mortality with 59.5 TgC. Similarly 1954 had the highest annual mortality with 68.4 TgC attributed to landfalling hurricanes. The results presented are deemed useful to further investigate historical events, and the methods outlined are potentially beneficial to quantify biomass loss in future events.

A Comparison of Wolf's Reconstructed Record of Annual Sunspot Number with Schwabe's Observed Record of Clusters of Spots for the Interval of 1826-1868

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1998-01-01

Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, the discoverer of the sunspot cycle, observed the Sun routinely from Desau, Germany during the interval of 1826-1869, averaging about 290 observing days per year. His yearly counts of 'clusters of spots' (or, more correctly, the yearly number of newly appearing sunspot groups) provided a simple means for describing the overt features of the sunspot cycle (i.e., the timing and relative strengths of cycle minimum and maximum). In 1848, Rudolf Wolf, a Swiss astronomer, having become aware of Schwabe's discovery, introduced his now familiar 'relative sunspot number' and established an international cadre of observers for monitoring the future behavior of the sunspot cycle and for reconstructing its past behavior (backwards in time to 1818, based on daily sunspot number estimates). While Wolf's reconstruction is complete (without gaps) only from 1849 (hence, the beginning of the modern era), the immediately preceding interval of 1818-1848 is incomplete, being based on an average of 260 observing days per year. In this investigation, Wolf's reconstructed record of annual sunspot number is compared against Schwabe's actual observing record of yearly counts of clusters of spots. The comparison suggests that Wolf may have misplaced (by about 1-2 yr) and underestimated (by about 16 units of sunspot number) the maximum amplitude for cycle 7. If true, then, cycle 7's ascent and descent durations should measure about 5 years each instead of 7 and 3 years, respectively, the extremes of the distributions, and its maximum amplitude should measure about 96 instead of 70. This study also indicates that cycle 9's maximum amplitude is more reliably determined than cycle 8's and that both appear to be of comparable size (about 130 units of sunspot number) rather than being significantly different. Therefore, caution is urged against the indiscriminate use of the pre-modern era sunspot numbers in long-term studies of the sunspot cycle, since such use may lead to specious results.

Dust deposition and ambient PM10 concentration in northwest China: spatial and temporal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiao-Xiao; Sharratt, Brenton; Chen, Xi; Wang, Zi-Fa; Liu, Lian-You; Guo, Yu-Hong; Li, Jie; Chen, Huan-Sheng; Yang, Wen-Yi

2017-02-01

Eolian dust transport and deposition are important geophysical processes which influence global bio-geochemical cycles. Currently, reliable deposition data are scarce in central and east Asia. Located at the boundary of central and east Asia, Xinjiang Province of northwestern China has long played a strategic role in cultural and economic trade between Asia and Europe. In this paper, we investigated the spatial distribution and temporal variation in dust deposition and ambient PM10 (particulate matter in aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 µm) concentration from 2000 to 2013 in Xinjiang Province. This variation was assessed using environmental monitoring records from 14 stations in the province. Over the 14 years, annual average dust deposition across stations in the province ranged from 255.7 to 421.4 t km-2. Annual dust deposition was greater in southern Xinjiang (663.6 t km-2) than northern (147.8 t km-2) and eastern Xinjiang (194.9 t km-2). Annual average PM10 concentration across stations in the province varied from 100 to 196 µg m-3 and was 70, 115 and 239 µg m-3 in northern, eastern and southern Xinjiang, respectively. The highest annual dust deposition (1394.1 t km-2) and ambient PM10 concentration (352 µg m-3) were observed in Hotan, which is located in southern Xinjiang and at the southern boundary of the Taklamakan Desert. Dust deposition was more intense during the spring and summer than other seasons. PM10 was the main air pollutant that significantly influenced regional air quality. Annual average dust deposition increased logarithmically with ambient PM10 concentration (R2 ≥ 0.81). While the annual average dust storm frequency remained unchanged from 2000 to 2013, there was a positive relationship between dust storm days and dust deposition and PM10 concentration across stations. This study suggests that sand storms are a major factor affecting the temporal variability and spatial distribution of dust deposition in northwest China.

Annual Cycle of Surface Longwave Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Pamela E.; Smith, G. Louis; Wilber, Anne C.; Stackhouse, Paul W.

2011-01-01

The annual cycles of upward and downward longwave fluxes at the Earth s surface are investigated by use of the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Data Set. Because of the immense difference between the heat capacity of land and ocean, the surface of Earth is partitioned into these two categories. Principal component analysis is used to quantify the annual cycles. Over land, the first principal component describes over 95% of the variance of the annual cycle of the upward and downward longwave fluxes. Over ocean the first term describes more than 87% of these annual cycles. Empirical orthogonal functions show the corresponding geographical distributions of these cycles. Phase plane diagrams of the annual cycles of upward longwave fluxes as a function of net shortwave flux show the thermal inertia of land and ocean.

Cloth media filtration and membrane microfiltration: serial operation.

PubMed

Tooker, Nicholas Brewster; Darby, Jeannie L

2007-02-01

A combined system comprised of a cloth media filter and a membrane microfilter operated in series was used to treat secondary effluent. The study objective was to investigate the effect of premembrane filtration on the maximum sustainable membrane flux, transmembrane pressure, and effluent quality. The maximum sustainable time-averaged flux under predefined operating conditions (i.e., 15-minute process cycle, 24-hour chemical cleaning cycle, and 30-day intensive cleaning cycle) was 127 L/m(2)x h. Typical flux rates for secondary effluent ranged from 40 to 55 L/m(2) x h. Effluent water quality from the combined system was high and independent of membrane flux and influent quality. Average membrane effluent water quality values were 0.04 NTU for turbidity and 1.4 mg/L for 5-day biochemical oxygen demand. Neither total nor fecal coliforms were detected. Based on the results presented herein, prefiltration would provide an annualized cost savings of approximately 12% over microfiltration alone for a 3.8 x 10(3) m(3)/d treatment facility.

Tax credits, insurance, and in vitro fertilization in the U.S. military health care system.

PubMed

Wu, Mae; Henne, Melinda; Propst, Anthony

2012-06-01

The FAMILY Act, an income tax credit for infertility treatments, was introduced into the U.S. Senate on May 12, 2011. We estimated the costs and utilization of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in the military if infertility treatment became a tax credit or TRICARE benefit. We surveyed 7 military treatment facilities (MTFs) that offer IVF, with a 100% response rate. We first modeled the impact of the FAMILY Act on the MTFs. We then assessed the impact and costs of a TRICARE benefit for IVF. In 2009, MTFs performed 810 IVF cycles with average patient charges of $4961 and estimated pharmacy costs of $2K per cycle. With implementation of the FAMILY Act, we estimate an increase in IVF demand at the MTFs to 1165 annual cycles. With a TRICARE benefit, estimated demand would increase to 6,924 annual IVF cycles. MTF pharmacy costs would increase to $7.3 annually. TRICARE medical and pharmacy costs would exceed $24.4 million and $6.5 million, respectively. In conclusion, if the FAMILY Act becomes law, demand for IVF at MTFs will increase 29%, with a 50% decrease in patient medical expenses after tax credits. MTF pharmacy costs will rise, and additional staffing will be required to meet the demand. If IVF becomes a TRICARE benefit, demand for IVF will increase at least 2-fold. Current MTFs would be unable to absorb the increased demand, leading to increased TRICARE treatment costs at civilian centers.

Recent advances in lunar base simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johenning, B.; Koelle, H. H.

This article reports about the results of the latest computer runs of a lunar base simulation model. The lunar base consists of 20 facilities for lunar mining, processing and fabrication. The infrastructure includes solar and nuclear power plants, a central workshop, habitat and farm. Lunar products can be used for construction of solar power systems (SPS) or other spacecraft at several space locations. The simulation model evaluates the mass, energy and manpower flows between the elements of the system as well as system cost and cost of products on an annual basis for a given operational period. The 1983 standard model run over a fifty-years life cycle (beginning about the year 2000) was accomplished for a mean annual production volume of 78 180 Mg of hardware products for export resulting in average specific manufacturing cost of 8.4 $/kg and total annual cost of 1.25 billion dollars during the life cycle. The reference space transportation system uses LOX/LH 2 propulsion for which at the average 210 500 Mg LOX per year is produced on the moon. The sensitivity analysis indicates the importance of bootstrapping as well as the influence of market size, space transportation cost and specific resources demand on the mean lunar manufacturing cost. The option using lunar resources turns out to be quite attractive from the economical viewpoint. Systems analysis by this lunar base model and further trade-offs will be a useful tool to confirm this.

Reconstructing Century-Scale Changes in Nitrogen Cycling in Forests Throughout the United States using Tree-Ring δ15N Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerhart-Barley, L.; McLauchlan, K. K.; Battles, J. J.; Craine, J. M.; Higuera, P. E.; Mack, M. C.; McNeil, B. E.; Nelson, D. M.; Pederson, N.; Perakis, S. S.

2016-12-01

In recent decades, human perturbation of the global nitrogen (N) cycle has been immense with reactive nitrogen supply to ecosystems from anthropogenic sources now exceeding that of natural fixation. The impact of these perturbations on ecosystem nutrient cycling and plant communities is limited by the lack of long-term `baseline' assessments of N cycling prior to anthropogenic influences. Stable N isotope analysis (δ15N) of dendrochronological records have the potential to provide this baseline data, but to date have focused on short term, regional assessments. Here, we address this question with a data set incorporating 311 individual trees and 7,661 δ15N measurements from 50 sites throughout the contiguous United States. These sites represent the diversity of US forest types, climate conditions, N deposition, soil types, and disturbance histories. The chronologies span, on average, the last 162 calendar years, with the oldest chronology dating back to 1572 C.E. Consequently, this study is the first century- and continental-scale assessment of ecosystem N cycling using tree-ring chronologies. When aggregated, the chronologies show a consistent decline from 1825 C.E. to present, indicating declining N availability in US forests, despite global increases in N supply. Environmental factors such as mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), and mean annual nitrogen deposition (Ndep) did not contribute to average site δ15N values; however, MAP and MAT significantly affected temporal trajectories in tree-ring δ15N, with more negative slopes toward present occurring in regions with low MAT and high MAP. Quantity of atmospheric N deposition had no discernible impact on mean δ15N values or on the temporal slope. This lack of response is either because levels of N deposition are too low to produce a discernible response in any meaningful aspects of the N cycle, and/or the δ15N signature of depositional N is similar enough to ecosystem N pools that atmospheric N inputs do not produce a significant effect. The declines in N availability indicated by these data may be exacerbated by projected climate trends, which predict increasing temperatures and drier conditions, potentially reducing overall carbon uptake in US forests.

Estimating the Mean Annual Surface Air Temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for Sunspot Cycle 24, the Current Ongoing Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

As noted by Gray et al., Sir William Herschel was the first to suggest a possible close connection between the Sun and the Earth’s climate. The Sun, being the source of energy that impacts and drives the Earth’s climate system, displays a variety of changes over both short and long term time scales, the most obvious examples being the somewhat regular waxing and waning of sunspots with time (i.e., the sunspot cycle (SC)), first described by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, a German apothecary and amateur astronomer who observed the Sun from Dessau, Germany, and the now well established variation of the Sun’s irradiance over the SC. Other factors related to the SC have been linked to changes in climate as well. Some of these other factors include the role of cosmic rays and the solar wind (i.e., the geomagnetic cycle) on climate, as well as the apparent close association between trends in global and northern hemispheric temperature and the length of the SC, although some investigators have described the inferred association between climate and, in particular, SC length as now being weak. More recently, Solheim et al. have reported on the relation between SC length and the average temperature in the same and immediately following SC for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. They noted that while they found no significant trend (correlation) between SC length and the average temperature when measured for the same cycle, in contrast, they found a significant negative trend when SC length was compared with the following cycle’s average temperature. From this observation, they suggested that average northern hemispheric temperature during the present ongoing SC (SC24) will be lower by about 0.9 °C than was seen in SC23 (spanning 1996–2007, based on yearly averages of sunspot number (SSN), and onset for SC24 occurring in 2008). The purpose of this Technical Publication (TP) is to examine the annual variations of the Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT) and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI) in relation to SSN and the SC in order to determine their likely values during SC24. Hence, it may provide insight as to whether solar forcing of global temperature is now lessening as a contributor to global warming, thereby indicating a possible cooling in the near term immediate future that potentially could ameliorate the effect of increased anthropogenic warming.

Evaluation of Near-Tropopause Ozone Distributions in the Global Modeling Initiative Combined Stratosphere/Troposphere Model with Ozonesonde Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Considine, David B.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Olsen, Mark A.

2008-01-01

The NASA Global Modeling Initiative has developed a combined stratosphere/troposphere chemistry and transport model which fully represents the processes governing atmospheric composition near the tropopause. We evaluate model ozone distributions near the tropopause, using two high vertical resolution monthly mean ozone profile climatologies constructed with ozonesonde data, one by averaging on pressure levels and the other relative to the thermal tropopause. Model ozone is high biased at the SH tropical and NH midlatitude tropopause by approx. 45% in a 4 deg. latitude x 5 deg. longitude model simulation. Increasing the resolution to 2 deg. x 2.5 deg. increases the NH tropopause high bias to approx. 60%, but decreases the tropical tropopause bias to approx. 30%, an effect of a better-resolved residual circulation. The tropopause ozone biases appear not to be due to an overly vigorous residual circulation or excessive stratosphere/troposphere exchange, but are more likely due to insufficient vertical resolution or excessive vertical diffusion near the tropopause. In the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, model/measurement intercomparisons are strongly affected by the averaging technique. NH and tropical mean model lower stratospheric biases are less than 20%. In the upper troposphere, the 2 deg. x 2.5 deg. simulation exhibits mean high biases of approx. 20% and approx. 35% during April in the tropics and NH midlatitudes, respectively, compared to the pressure averaged climatology. However, relative-to-tropopause averaging produces upper troposphere high biases of approx. 30% and 70% in the tropics and NH midlatitudes. This is because relative-to-tropopause averaging better preserves large cross-tropopause O3 gradients, which are seen in the daily sonde data, but not in daily model profiles. The relative annual cycle of ozone near the tropopause is reproduced very well in the model Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In the tropics, the model amplitude of the near tropopause annual cycle is weak. This is likely due to the annual amplitude of mean vertical upwelling near the tropopause, which analysis suggests is approx. 30% weaker than in the real atmosphere.

The Martian annual atmospheric pressure cycle - Years without great dust storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tillman, James E.; Johnson, Neal C.; Guttorp, Peter; Percival, Donald B.

1993-01-01

A model of the annual cycle of pressure on Mars for a 2-yr period, chosen to include one year at the Viking Lander 2 and to minimize the effect of great dust storms at the 22-deg N Lander 1 site, was developed by weighted least squares fitting of the Viking Lander pressure measurements to an annual mean, and fundamental and the first four harmonics of the annual cycle. Close agreement was obtained between the two years, suggesting that an accurate representation of the annual CO2 condensation-sublimation cycle can be established for such years. This model is proposed as the 'nominal' Martian annual pressure cycle, and applications are suggested.

A note on the annual cycles of surface heat balance and temperature over a continent. [North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Crane, G.

1974-01-01

A surface heating function, defined as the ratio of the time derivative of the mean annual temperature curve to the surface heat balance, is computed from the annual temperature range and heat balance data for the North American continent. An annual cycle of the surface heat balance is then reconstructed from the surface heating function and the annual temperature curve, and an annual cycle of evaporative plus turbulent heat loss is recomputed from the annual cycles of radiation balance and surface heat balance for the continent. The implications of these results for long range weather forecasting are discussed.

Iowa Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2012 IECC as Compared to the 2009 IECC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-06-15

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) yields positive benefits for Iowa homeowners. Moving to the 2012 IECC from the 2009 IECC is cost effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Iowa homeowners will save $7,573 with the 2012 IECC. After accounting for upfront costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceeding cumulative cash outlays) in 1 year for the 2012 IECC. Average annual energy savings are $454 for the 2012 IECC.

Texas Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2012 IECC as Compared to the 2009 IECC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-06-15

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) yields positive benefits for Texas homeowners. Moving to the 2012 IECC from the 2009 IECC is cost effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Texas homeowners will save $3,456 with the 2012 IECC. After accounting for upfront costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceeding cumulative cash outlays) in 2 years for the 2012 IECC. Average annual energy savings are $259 for the 2012 IECC.

Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

2001-01-01

Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern Hemisphere at mid and high latitudes also get strongly influenced by the annual cycles of solar heating. The SST influence is largely limited to the oceanic regions of these latitudes; (3) The annual mode of precipitation over Amazonia has an equatorial regime revealing a maxima in the month of March associated with SST, and another maxima in the month of January associated with the solar annual cycles, respectively. The baseline simulation, which has both annual cycles, depicts both annual modes and its rainfall is virtually equal to the sum of those two modes; (4) Rainfall over Sahelian-Africa is significantly reduced (increased) in simulations lacking (invoking) solar irradiation with (without) the annual cycle. In fact, the dominant influence of solar irradiation emerges in almost all monsoonal-land regions: India, Southeast Asia, as well as Australia. The only exception is the Continental United States, where solar annual cycle shows only a relatively minor influence on the annual mode of rainfall.

Product lifetime, energy efficiency and climate change: A case study of air conditioners in Japan.

PubMed

Nishijima, Daisuke

2016-10-01

This study proposed a modelling technique for estimating life-cycle CO2 emissions of durable goods by considering changes in product lifetime and energy efficiency. The stock and flow of durable goods was modelled by Weibull lifetime distributions and the trend in annual energy efficiency (i.e., annual electricity consumption) of an "average" durable good was formulated as a reverse logistic curve including a technologically critical value (i.e., limit energy efficiency) with respect to time. I found that when the average product lifetime is reduced, there is a trade-off between the reduction in emissions during product use (use phase), due to the additional purchases of new, more energy-efficient air conditioners, and the increase in emissions arising from the additional production of new air conditioners stimulated by the reduction of the average product lifetime. A scenario analysis focused on residential air conditioners in Japan during 1972-2013 showed that for a reduction of average lifetime of 1 year, if the air conditioner energy efficiency limit can be improved by 1.4% from the estimated current efficiency level, then CO2 emissions can be reduced by approximately the same amount as for an extension of average product lifetime of 1 year. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sunshine duration and its variability in the main ridge of the Karkonosze Mountains in relation to with atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Grzegorz; Migała, Krzysztof; Pawliczek, Piotr

2018-02-01

Sunshine duration analysis was based on a series of measurements spanning the period from 1901 to 2014 for Śnieżka (1603 m a.s.l.) and from 1961 to 2000 for Szrenica (1362 m a.s.l.). The average annual sunshine duration (SD) on Śnieżka is 1423.0 h, which is among the lowest values in Poland. On average, the main ridge of the Karkonosze range receives 31% of potential sunshine duration in annual terms: from 25% in December to 36% in August and May. The changes in sunshine duration recorded on Śnieżka point to the existence of two cycles: a short one of approx. 2-4 years and a long one of approx. 60 years. The former most probably reflects the rhythm of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Oscillation), while the latter reflects the impact of ocean circulation associated with the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) mechanism. Annual SD totals for the years 1901-2014 exhibit a slight trend to an increase of approx. 2.5 h/10 years, and the rate of increase during the winter quarter is many times higher than during the other seasons. Average monthly sunshine duration differences between Śnieżka and Szrenica are positive for all months of the year with the average monthly difference being 10 to 11 h. This means that the average radiation conditions on Śnieżka are more favourable than the main ridge of the Karkonosze range, which lies at an altitude 200 to 250 m lower. Average daily sunshine durations recorded on Śnieżka are only shorter than those on Szrenica for macro-types of atmospheric circulation with advection from the south.

Net community production and calcification from 7 years of NOAA Station Papa Mooring measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fassbender, Andrea J.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Cronin, Meghan F.

2016-02-01

Seven years of near-continuous observations from the Ocean Station Papa (OSP) surface mooring were used to evaluate drivers of marine carbon cycling in the eastern subarctic Pacific. Processes contributing to mixed layer carbon inventory changes throughout each deployment year were quantitatively assessed using a time-dependent mass balance approach in which total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon were used as tracers. By using two mixed layer carbon tracers, it was possible to isolate the influences of net community production (NCP) and calcification. Our results indicate that the annual NCP at OSP is 2 ± 1 mol C m-2 yr-1 and the annual calcification is 0.3 ± 0.3 mol C m-2 yr-1. Piecing together evidence for potentially significant dissolved organic carbon cycling in this region, we estimate a particulate inorganic carbon to particulate organic carbon ratio between 0.15 and 0.25. This is at least double the global average, adding to the growing evidence that calcifying organisms play an important role in carbon export at this location. These results, coupled with significant seasonality in the NCP, suggest that carbon cycling near OSP may be more complex than previously thought and highlight the importance of continuous observations for robust assessments of biogeochemical cycling.

Net community production at Ocean Station Papa observed with nitrate and oxygen sensors on profiling floats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, Joshua N.; Johnson, Kenneth S.; Sakamoto, Carole M.; Jannasch, Hans W.; Coletti, Luke J.; Riser, Stephen C.; Swift, Dana D.

2016-06-01

Six profiling floats equipped with nitrate and oxygen sensors were deployed at Ocean Station P in the Gulf of Alaska. The resulting six calendar years and 10 float years of nitrate and oxygen data were used to determine an average annual cycle for net community production (NCP) in the top 35 m of the water column. NCP became positive in February as soon as the mixing activity in the surface layer began to weaken, but nearly 3 months before the traditionally defined mixed layer began to shoal from its winter time maximum. NCP displayed two maxima, one toward the end of May and another in August with a summertime minimum in June corresponding to the historical peak in mesozooplankton biomass. The average annual NCP was determined to be 1.5 ± 0.6 mol C m-2 yr-1 using nitrate and 1.5 ± 0.7 mol C m-2 yr-1 using oxygen. The results from oxygen data proved to be quite sensitive to the gas exchange model used as well as the accuracy of the oxygen measurement. Gas exchange models optimized for carbon dioxide flux generally ignore transport due to gas exchange through the injection of bubbles, and these models yield NCP values that are two to three time higher than the nitrate-based estimates. If nitrate and oxygen NCP rates are assumed to be related by the Redfield model, we show that the oxygen gas exchange model can be optimized by tuning the exchange terms to reproduce the nitrate NCP annual cycle.

Dynamics of natural prokaryotes, viruses, and heterotrophic nanoflagellates in alpine karstic groundwater

PubMed Central

Wilhartitz, Inés C; Kirschner, Alexander K T; Brussaard, Corina P D; Fischer, Ulrike R; Wieltschnig, Claudia; Stadler, Hermann; Farnleitner, Andreas H

2013-01-01

Abstract Seasonal dynamics of naturally occurring prokaryotes, viruses, and heterotrophic nanoflagellates in two hydro-geologically contrasting alpine karst springs were monitored over three annual cycles. To our knowledge, this study is the first to shed light on the occurrence and possible interrelationships between these three groups in karstic groundwater. Hydrological and microbiological standard indicators were recovered simultaneously in order to estimate surface influence, especially during rainfall events. Data revealed a strong dependence of the microbial communities on the prevailing hydrological situation. Prokaryotic numbers averaged 5.1 × 107 and 1.3 × 107 cells L−1, and heterotrophic nanoflagellate abundance averaged 1.1 × 104 and 3 × 103 cells L−1 in the limestone spring type (LKAS2) and the dolomitic spring type (DKAS1), respectively. Viral abundance in LKAS2 and DKAS1 averaged 9.4 × 108 and 1.1 × 108 viruses L−1. Unlike in DKAS1, the dynamic spring type LKAS2 revealed a clear difference between base flow and high discharge conditions. The virus-to-prokaryotes ratio was generally lower by a factor of 2–3, at higher average water residence times. Furthermore, the high prokaryotes-to-heterotrophic nanoflagellate ratios, namely about 4700 and 5400 for LKAS2 and DKAS1, respectively, pointed toward an uncoupling of these two groups in the planktonic fraction of alpine karstic aquifers. Seasonal dynamics of naturally occurring prokaryotes, viruses and heterotrophic nanoflagellates in two hydro-geologically contrasting alpine karst springs were monitored over three annual cycles. Data revealed a strong dependence of the microbial communities on the prevailing hydrological situation. PMID:23828838

Invasion of non-native grasses causes a drop in soil carbon storage in California grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koteen, Laura E.; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Harte, John

2011-10-01

Vegetation change can affect the magnitude and direction of global climate change via its effect on carbon cycling among plants, the soil and the atmosphere. The invasion of non-native plants is a major cause of land cover change, of biodiversity loss, and of other changes in ecosystem structure and function. In California, annual grasses from Mediterranean Europe have nearly displaced native perennial grasses across the coastal hillsides and terraces of the state. Our study examines the impact of this invasion on carbon cycling and storage at two sites in northern coastal California. The results suggest that annual grass invasion has caused an average drop in soil carbon storage of 40 Mg/ha in the top half meter of soil, although additional mechanisms may also contribute to soil carbon losses. We attribute the reduction in soil carbon storage to low rates of net primary production in non-native annuals relative to perennial grasses, a shift in rooting depth and water use to primarily shallow sources, and soil respiratory losses in non-native grass soils that exceed production rates. These results indicate that even seemingly subtle land cover changes can significantly impact ecosystem functions in general, and carbon storage in particular.

Annual cycle of dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) related to phytoplankton succession in the Southern North Sea.

PubMed

Speeckaert, Gaëlle; Borges, Alberto V; Champenois, Willy; Royer, Colin; Gypens, Nathalie

2018-05-01

The influence of abiotic and biotic variables on the concentration of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO), were investigated during an annual cycle in 2016 in the Belgian Coastal Zone (BCZ, North Sea). We reported strong seasonal variations in the concentration of these compounds linked to the phytoplankton succession with high DMS(P,O) producers (mainly Phaeocystis globosa) occurring in spring and low DMS(P,O) producers (various diatoms species) occurring in early spring and autumn. Spatial gradients of DMS and DMSP were related to those of phytoplankton biomass itself related to the inputs of nutrients from the Scheldt estuary. However, the use of a relationship with Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is not sufficient to predict DMSP. Accounting for the phytoplankton composition, two different DMSP versus Chl-a correlations could be established, one for diatoms and another one for Phaeocystis colonies. We also reported high nearshore DMSO concentrations uncoupled to Chl-a and DMSP concentrations but linked to high suspended particulate matter (SPM) presumably coming from the Scheldt estuary as indicated by the positive relationship between annual average SPM and salinity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiscale assessment of water limitations on forest carbon cycling in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

2016-12-01

Water is a key environmental constraint on carbon uptake, storage, and release by forests in the western United States. Climate in this region is becoming warmer and drier, thus highlighting the need to better understand how forest carbon cycling responds to variation in water availability. Here, we describe how forest carbon cycling varied spatially along local to regional gradients in climatic water availability. We examined local variation in net primary productivity (NPP) and aboveground biomass (AGB) using 12 intensive field plots in Oregon's Cascade Mountains. Regional analysis of forest NPP and AGB was based on federal forest inventories (>8,000 plots) in Washington, Oregon, and California, multiple biomass maps and MODIS NPP (2003-2012). We also quantified annual forest AGB mortality due to bark beetles and fires across the region from 2003-2012 by combining several disturbance and biomass data sets. Over each spatial extent, forest NPP and AGB increased curvilinearly with average growing-year climate moisture index, computed as the cumulative difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from October-September and averaged over preceding decades. Thus, climatic water availability strongly constrains forest carbon uptake and storage, particularly in the driest areas, but also in the wettest. Forest AGB mortality rates from bark beetles and fires peaked in moderately dry forests and then declining rapidly in the wettest areas. Annual forest AGB mortality from bark beetles was about twice as high as from fires. Bark beetle impacts were most pronounced in the Rock Mountains, while fire impacts were most pronounced in western portion of the region. Our multiscale analysis based on field inventory and remote sensing data sets demonstrates that climatic water availability is a key environmental constraint on forest carbon cycling in the western US. Consequently, continued warming and drying can be expected to have substantial impacts on forest carbon cycling in this region over the coming century.

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, David F.; Howard, Russell A.

1994-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

Spacecraft Charging Modeling - NASCAP-2K 2013 Annual Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-20

is given by 311198 2 3 2 3 104.21106.110 −−− ×=×××= JmeTN ee . The electron energy created per cycle is greater than 5×10-6 J, corresponding to 2... EEE EF e m2 n3 22T  . • Average temperature as defined by M. Thomsen6 and given in Equation 1. • Temperature parameter of a Maxwellian fit to the

Drivers of multi-century trends in the atmospheric CO2 mean annual cycle in a prognostic ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liptak, Jessica; Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Lindsay, Keith

2017-03-01

The amplitude of the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 is a diagnostic of seasonal surface-atmosphere carbon exchange. Atmospheric observations show that this quantity has increased over most of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during the last 3 decades, likely from a combination of enhanced atmospheric CO2, climate change, and anthropogenic land use change. Accurate climate prediction requires accounting for long-term interactions between the environment and carbon cycling; thus, analysis of the evolution of the mean annual cycle in a fully prognostic Earth system model may provide insight into the multi-decadal influence of environmental change on the carbon cycle. We analyzed the evolution of the mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 simulated by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) from 1950 to 2300 under three scenarios designed to separate the effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2 fertilization, and land use change. The NH CO2 seasonal amplitude increase in the CESM mainly reflected enhanced primary productivity during the growing season due to climate change and the combined effects of CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition over the mid- and high latitudes. However, the simulations revealed shifts in key climate drivers of the atmospheric CO2 seasonality that were not apparent before 2100. CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition in boreal and temperate ecosystems were the largest contributors to mean annual cycle amplification over the midlatitudes for the duration of the simulation (1950-2300). Climate change from boreal ecosystems was the main driver of Arctic CO2 annual cycle amplification between 1950 and 2100, but CO2 fertilization had a stronger effect on the Arctic CO2 annual cycle amplitude during 2100-2300. Prior to 2100, the NH CO2 annual cycle amplitude increased in conjunction with an increase in the NH land carbon sink. However, these trends decoupled after 2100, underscoring that an increasing atmospheric CO2 annual cycle amplitude does not necessarily imply a strengthened terrestrial carbon sink.

Life cycle cost analysis of aging aircraft airframe maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperry, Kenneth Robert

Scope and method of study. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between an aircraft's age and its annual airframe maintenance costs. Common life cycle costing methodology has previously not recognized the existence of this cost growth potential, and has therefor not determined the magnitude nor significance of this cost element. This study analyzed twenty-five years of DOT Form 41-airframe maintenance cost data for the Boeing 727, 737, 747 and McDonnell Douglas DC9 and DC-10 aircraft. Statistical analysis included regression analysis, Pearson's r, and t-tests to test the null hypothesis. Findings and conclusion. Airframe maintenance cost growth was confirmed to be increasing after an aircraft's age exceeded its designed service objective of approximately twenty-years. Annual airframe maintenance cost growth increases were measured ranging from 3.5% annually for a DC-9, to approximately 9% annually for a DC-10 aircraft. Average measured coefficient of determination between age and airframe maintenance, exceeded .80, confirming a strong relationship between cost: and age. The statistical significance of the difference between airframe costs sampled in 1985, compared to airframe costs sampled in 1998 was confirmed by t-tests performed on each subject aircraft group. Future cost forecasts involving aging aircraft subjects must address cost growth due to aging when attempting to model an aircraft's economic service life.

Annual and longitudinal variations of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lolk, Nina K.

1992-01-01

The climatological annual cycle of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) simulated by an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was studied. The longitudinal variation of transports, degree of geostrophy, and the relationship between Ekman pumping and vertical displacement of the thermocline were emphasized. The longitudinal variation was explored using six sections along 150 deg E, 180 deg, 160 deg W, 140 deg W, 125 deg W, and 110 deg W. A primitive equation OGCM of the Pacific Ocean was run for three years and the fields used were from the third year. The fields consisted of zonal, meridional, and vertical current components and temperature and salinity averaged every three days. The model was forced with the Hellerman and Rosenstein climatological wind stress. The mean annual eastward transport (19.9 Sv) was largest at 160 deg W. The maximum-current boundaries along 160 deg W were 9.2 deg N (1.0 deg), 5.1 deg N (1.1 deg), and 187 m (90.6 m). The annual-cycle amplitude of the NECC was greatest between 160 deg W and 140 deg W. Although the NECC is geostrophic to the first order, deviations from geostrophy were found in the boreal spring and summer near the southern boundary and near the surface. Meridional local acceleration played a role between 3 deg N-5 deg N.

Future ocean hypercapnia driven by anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO2 cycle.

PubMed

McNeil, Ben I; Sasse, Tristan P

2016-01-21

High carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in sea-water (ocean hypercapnia) can induce neurological, physiological and behavioural deficiencies in marine animals. Prediction of the onset and evolution of hypercapnia in the ocean requires a good understanding of annual variations in oceanic CO2 concentration, but there is a lack of relevant global observational data. Here we identify global ocean patterns of monthly variability in carbon concentration using observations that allow us to examine the evolution of surface-ocean CO2 levels over the entire annual cycle under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We predict that the present-day amplitude of the natural oscillations in oceanic CO2 concentration will be amplified by up to tenfold in some regions by 2100, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise throughout this century (according to the RCP8.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The findings from our data are broadly consistent with projections from Earth system climate models. Our predicted amplification of the annual CO2 cycle displays distinct global patterns that may expose major fisheries in the Southern, Pacific and North Atlantic oceans to hypercapnia many decades earlier than is expected from average atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We suggest that these ocean 'CO2 hotspots' evolve as a combination of the strong seasonal dynamics of CO2 concentration and the long-term effective storage of anthropogenic CO2 in the oceans that lowers the buffer capacity in these regions, causing a nonlinear amplification of CO2 concentration over the annual cycle. The onset of ocean hypercapnia (when the partial pressure of CO2 in sea-water exceeds 1,000 micro-atmospheres) is forecast for atmospheric CO2 concentrations that exceed 650 parts per million, with hypercapnia expected in up to half the surface ocean by 2100, assuming a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Such extensive ocean hypercapnia has detrimental implications for fisheries during the twenty-first century.

Future ocean hypercapnia driven by anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO2 cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeil, Ben I.; Sasse, Tristan P.

2016-01-01

High carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in sea-water (ocean hypercapnia) can induce neurological, physiological and behavioural deficiencies in marine animals. Prediction of the onset and evolution of hypercapnia in the ocean requires a good understanding of annual variations in oceanic CO2 concentration, but there is a lack of relevant global observational data. Here we identify global ocean patterns of monthly variability in carbon concentration using observations that allow us to examine the evolution of surface-ocean CO2 levels over the entire annual cycle under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We predict that the present-day amplitude of the natural oscillations in oceanic CO2 concentration will be amplified by up to tenfold in some regions by 2100, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise throughout this century (according to the RCP8.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The findings from our data are broadly consistent with projections from Earth system climate models. Our predicted amplification of the annual CO2 cycle displays distinct global patterns that may expose major fisheries in the Southern, Pacific and North Atlantic oceans to hypercapnia many decades earlier than is expected from average atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We suggest that these ocean ‘CO2 hotspots’ evolve as a combination of the strong seasonal dynamics of CO2 concentration and the long-term effective storage of anthropogenic CO2 in the oceans that lowers the buffer capacity in these regions, causing a nonlinear amplification of CO2 concentration over the annual cycle. The onset of ocean hypercapnia (when the partial pressure of CO2 in sea-water exceeds 1,000 micro-atmospheres) is forecast for atmospheric CO2 concentrations that exceed 650 parts per million, with hypercapnia expected in up to half the surface ocean by 2100, assuming a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Such extensive ocean hypercapnia has detrimental implications for fisheries during the twenty-first century.

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

Establishing a baseline precipitation and temperature regime for the Guianas from observations and reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bovolo, C. Isabella; Pereira, Ryan; Parkin, Geoff; Wagner, Thomas

2010-05-01

The tropical rainforests of the Guianas, north of the Amazon, are home to several Amerindian communities, hold high levels of biodiversity and, importantly, remain some of the world's most pristine and intact rainforests. Not only do they have important functions in the global carbon cycle, but they regulate the local and regional climate and help generate rain over vast distances. Despite their significance however, the climate and hydrology of this region is poorly understood. It is important to establish the current climate regime of the area as a baseline against which any impacts of future climate change or deforestation can be measured but observed historical climate datasets are generally sparse and of low quality. Here we examine the available precipitation and temperature datasets for the region and derive tentative precipitation and temperature maps focussed on Guyana. To overcome the limitations in the inadequate observational data coverage we also make use of a reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ECMWF ERA40 dataset comprises a spatially consistent global historical climate for the period 1957-2002 at a ~125 km2 (1.125 degree) resolution at the equator and is particularly valuable for establishing the climate of data-poor areas. Once validated for the area of interest, ERA40 is used to determine the precipitation and temperature regime of the Guianas. Grid-cell by grid-cell analysis provides a complete picture of spatial patterns of averaged monthly precipitation variability across the area, vital for establishing a basis from which to compare any future effects of climate change. This is the first comprehensive study of the recent historical climate and its variability in this area, placing a new hydroclimate monitoring and research program at the Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, Guyana, into the broader climate context. Mean differences (biases) and annual average spatial correlations are examined between modelled ERA40 and observed time series comparing the seasonal cycles and the yearly, monthly and monthly anomaly time series. This is to evaluate if the reanalysis data correctly reproduces the areally averaged observed mean annual precipitation, interannual variability and seasonal precipitation cycle over the region. Results show that reanalysis precipitation for the region compares favourably with areally averaged observations where available, although the model underestimates precipitation in some zones of higher elevation. Also ERA40 data is slightly positively biased along the coast and negatively biased inland. Comparisons between observed and modelled data show that although correlations of annual time series are low (<0.6), correlations of monthly time series reach 0.8 demonstrating that the model captures much of the seasonal variation in precipitation. However correlations between monthly precipitation anomalies, where the averaged seasonal cycle has been removed from the comparison, are lower (< 0.6). As precipitation observations are not assimilated into the reanalysis these results provide a good validation of model performance. The seasonal cycle of precipitation is found to be highly variable across the region. Two wet-seasons (June and December) occur in northern Guyana which relate to the twice yearly passage of the inter-tropical convergence zone whereas a single wet season (April-August) occurs in the savannah zone, which stretches from Venezuela through the southern third of Guyana. The climate transition zone lies slightly north of the distinctive forest-savannah boundary which suggests that the boundary may be highly sensitive to future alterations in climate, such as those due to climate change or deforestation.

Eco-hydrological Responses to Soil and Water Conservation in the Jinghe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, H.; Jia, Y.; Qiu, Y.

2011-12-01

The Jinghe River Basin is one of the most serious soil erosion areas in the Loess Plateau. Many measures of soil and water conservation were applied in the basin. Terrestrial ecosystem model BIOME-BGC and distributed hydrological model WEP-L were used to build eco-hydrological model and verified by field observation and literature values. The model was applied in the Jinghe River Basin to analyze eco-hydrological responses under the scenarios of vegetation type change due to soil and water conservation polices. Four scenarios were set under the measures of conversion of cropland to forest, forestation on bare land, forestation on slope wasteland and planting grass on bare land. Analysis results show that the soil and water conservation has significant effects on runoff and the carbon cycle in the Jinghe River Basin: the average annual runoff would decrease and the average annual NPP and carbon storage would increase. Key words: soil and water conservation; conversion of cropland to forest; eco-hydrology response; the Jinghe River Basin

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature, Tropospheric Humidity and Lapse Rate on the Annual Cycle of the Clear-Sky Greenhouse Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, H.; Liu, W.

2000-01-01

The implication of this work will provide modeling study a surrogate of annual cycle of the greenhouse effect. For example, the model should be able to simulate the annual cycle before it can be used for global change study.

Speeds of coronal mass ejections: SMM observations from 1980 and 1984-1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hundhausen, A. J.; Burkepile, J. T.; St. Cyr, O. C.

1994-01-01

The speeds of 936 features in 673 coronal mass ejections have been determined from trajectories observed with the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph in 1980 and 1984 to 1989. The distribution of observed speeds has a range (from 5th to 95th percentile) of 35 to 911 km/s; the average and median speeds are 349 and 285 km/s. The speed distributions of some selected classes of mass ejections are significantly different. For example, the speeds of 331 'outer loops' range from 80 to 1042 km/s; the average and median speeds for this class of ejections are 445 and 372 km/s. The speed distributions from each year of SMM observations show significant changes, with the annual average speeds varying from 157 (1984) to 458 km/s (1985). These variations are not simply related to the solar activity cycle; the annual averages from years near the sunspot maxima and minimum are not significantly different. The widths, latitudes, and speeds of mass ejections determined from the SMM observations are only weakly correlated. In particular, mass ejection speeds vary only slightly with the heliographic latitudes of the ejection. High-latitude ejections, which occur well poleward of the active latitudes, have speeds similar to active latitude ejections.

The Impact of Sea Ice Concentration Accuracies on Climate Model Simulations with the GISS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Rind, David; Healy, Richard J.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated climate to sea ice concentration specifications in the type of simulation done in the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP), with specified oceanic boundary conditions. Results show that sea ice concentration uncertainties of +/- 7% can affect simulated regional temperatures by more than 6 C, and biases in sea ice concentrations of +7% and -7% alter simulated annually averaged global surface air temperatures by -0.10 C and +0.17 C, respectively, over those in the control simulation. The resulting 0.27 C difference in simulated annual global surface air temperatures is reduced by a third, to 0.18 C, when considering instead biases of +4% and -4%. More broadly, least-squares fits through the temperature results of 17 simulations with ice concentration input changes ranging from increases of 50% versus the control simulation to decreases of 50% yield a yearly average global impact of 0.0107 C warming for every 1% ice concentration decrease, i.e., 1.07 C warming for the full +50% to -50% range. Regionally and on a monthly average basis, the differences can be far greater, especially in the polar regions, where wintertime contrasts between the +50% and -50% cases can exceed 30 C. However, few statistically significant effects are found outside the polar latitudes, and temperature effects over the non-polar oceans tend to be under 1 C, due in part to the specification of an unvarying annual cycle of sea surface temperatures. The +/- 7% and 14% results provide bounds on the impact (on GISS GCM simulations making use of satellite data) of satellite-derived ice concentration inaccuracies, +/- 7% being the current estimated average accuracy of satellite retrievals and +/- 4% being the anticipated improved average accuracy for upcoming satellite instruments. Results show that the impact on simulated temperatures of imposed ice concentration changes is least in summer, encouragingly the same season in which the satellite accuracies are thought to be worst. Hence the impact of satellite inaccuracies is probably less than the use of an annually averaged satellite inaccuracy would suggest.

Hydrological simulation of a small ungauged agricultural watershed Semrakalwana of Northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Himanshu; Denis, Derrick Mario; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Kumar, Mukesh; Srivastava, Santosh Kumar; Denis, Anjelo Francis; Kumar, Rajendra

2017-10-01

A study was conducted to develop a hydrological model for agriculture dominated Semra watershed (4.31 km2) and Semrakalwana village at Allahabad using a semi distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. In model evaluation it was found that the SWAT does not require much calibration, and therefore, can be employed in unguaged watershed. A seasonal (Kharif, Rabi and Zaid seasons) and annual water budget analysis was performed to quantify various components of the hydrologic cycle. The average annual surface runoff varied from 379 to 386 mm while the evapotranspiration of the village was in the range of 359-364 mm. The average annual percolation and return flow was found to be 265-272 mm and 147-255 mm, respectively. The initial soil water content of the village was found in the range of 328-335 mm while the final soil water content was 356-362 mm. The study area fall under a rain-fed river basin (Tons River basin) with no contribution from snowmelt, the winter and summer season is highly affected by less water availability for crops and municipal use. Seasonal (Rabi, Kharif and Zaid crop seasons) and annual water budget of Semra watershed and Semrakalwana village evoke the need of conservation structures such as check dams, farm ponds, percolation tank, vegetative barrier, etc. to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements for winter and summer period.

Automated Monitoring of Carbon Fluxes in a Northern Rocky Mountain Forest Indicates Above-Average Net Primary Productivity During the 2015 Western U.S. Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenzel, J.; Hudiburg, T. W.

2016-12-01

As global temperatures rise in the 21st century, "hotter" droughts will become more intense and persistent, particularly in areas which already experience seasonal drought. Because forests represent a large and persistent terrestrial carbon sink which has previously offset a significant proportion of anthropogenic carbon emissions, forest carbon cycle responses to drought have become a prominent research concern. However, robust mechanistic modeling of carbon balance responses to projected drought effects requires improved observation-driven representations of carbon cycle processes; many such component processes are rarely monitored in complex terrain, are modeled or unrepresented quantities at eddy covariance sites, or are monitored at course temporal scales that are not conducive to elucidating process responses at process time scales. In the present study, we demonstrate the use of newly available and affordable automated dendrometers for the estimation of intra-seasonal Net Primary Productivity (NPP) in a Northern Rocky Mountain conifer forest which is impacted by seasonal drought. Results from our pilot study suggest that NPP was restricted by mid-summer moisture deficit under the extraordinary 2015 Western U.S. drought, with greater than 90% off stand growth occurring prior to August. Examination of growth on an inter-annual scale, however, suggests that the study site experienced above-average NPP during this exceptionally hot year. Taken together, these findings indicate that intensifying mid-summer drought in regional forests has affected the timing but has not diminished the magnitude of this carbon flux. By employing automated instrumentation for the intra-annual assessment of NPP, we reveal that annual NPP in regional forests is largely determined before mid-summer and is therefore surprisingly resilient to intensities of seasonal drought that exceed normal conditions of the 20th century.

Evidence for skipped spawning in a potamodromous cyprinid, humpback chub (Gila cypha), with implications for demographic parameter estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearson, Kristen Nicole; Kendall, William L.; Winkelman, Dana L.; Persons, William R.

2015-01-01

Our findings reveal evidence for skipped spawning in a potamodromous cyprinid, humpback chub (HBC; Gila cypha  ). Using closed robust design mark-recapture models, we found, on average, spawning HBC transition to the skipped spawning state () with a probability of 0.45 (95% CRI (i.e. credible interval): 0.10, 0.80) and skipped spawners remain in the skipped spawning state () with a probability of 0.60 (95% CRI: 0.26, 0.83), yielding an average spawning cycle of every 2.12 years, conditional on survival. As a result, migratory skipped spawners are unavailable for detection during annual sampling events. If availability is unaccounted for, survival and detection probability estimates will be biased. Therefore, we estimated annual adult survival probability (S), while accounting for skipped spawning, and found S remained reasonably stable throughout the study period, with an average of 0.75 ((95% CRI: 0.66, 0.82), process varianceσ2 = 0.005), while skipped spawning probability was highly dynamic (σ2 = 0.306). By improving understanding of HBC spawning strategies, conservation decisions can be based on less biased estimates of survival and a more informed population model structure.

Climatological Data For Clouds Over the Globe From Surface Observations, 1982-1991: The Total Cloud Edition (1994) (NDP-026a)

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, Carole J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); Warren, Stephen G. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; London, Julius [Department of Astrophysical, Planetary, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

1994-01-01

Routine, synoptic surface weather reports from ships and land stations over the entire globe, for the10-year period December 1981 through November 1991, were processed for total cloud cover and the frequencies of occurrence of clear sky, sky-obscured due to precipitation, and sky-obscured due to fog. Archived data, consisting of various annual, seasonal and monthly averages, are provided in grid boxes that are typically 2.5° × 2.5° for land and 5° × 5° for ocean. Day and nighttime averages are also given separately for each season. Several derived quantities, such as interannual variations and annual and diurnal harmonics, are provided as well. This data set incorporates an improved representation of nighttime cloudiness by utilizing only those nighttime observations for which the illuminance due to moonlight exceeds a specified threshold. This reduction in the night-detection bias increases the computed global average total cloud cover by about 2%. The impact on computed diurnal cycles is even greater, particularly over the oceans where it is found (in contrast to previous surface-based climatologies), that cloudiness is often greater at night than during the day.

28 CFR 505.2 - Annual determination of average cost of incarceration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION COST OF INCARCERATION FEE § 505.2 Annual determination of average cost of... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual determination of average cost of... average cost of incarceration. This calculation is reviewed annually and the revised figure is published...

A mathematical model of reservoir sediment quality prediction based on land-use and erosion processes in watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junakova, N.; Balintova, M.; Junak, J.

2017-10-01

The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model for determining of total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) content in eroded soil particles with emphasis on prediction of bottom sediment quality in reservoirs. The adsorbed nutrient concentrations are calculated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) extended by the determination of the average soil nutrient concentration in top soils. The average annual vegetation and management factor is divided into five periods of the cropping cycle. For selected plants, the average plant nutrient uptake divided into five cropping periods is also proposed. The average nutrient concentrations in eroded soil particles in adsorbed form are modified by sediment enrichment ratio to obtain the total nutrient content in transported soil particles. The model was designed for the conditions of north-eastern Slovakia. The study was carried out in the agricultural basin of the small water reservoir Klusov.

50 CFR 216.242 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—8270 (an average of 1654 annually). (Q) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—1400 (an average of 280 annually). (R) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—2690 (an average of 538 annually). (S) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—2515 (an average of 503 annually). (T) Pilot whales...

50 CFR 216.242 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—8270 (an average of 1654 annually). (Q) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—1400 (an average of 280 annually). (R) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—2690 (an average of 538 annually). (S) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—2515 (an average of 503 annually). (T) Pilot whales...

Dynamics of upwelling annual cycle in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li-Chiao; Jin, Fei-Fei; Wu, Chau-Ron; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2017-04-01

The annual upwelling is an important component of the equatorial Atlantic annual cycle. A simple theory is proposed using the framework of Zebiak-Cane (ZC) ocean model for insights into the dynamics of the upwelling annual cycle. It is demonstrated that in the Atlantic equatorial region this upwelling is dominated by Ekman processing in the west, whereas in the east it is primarily owing to shoaling and deepening of the thermocline resulting from equatorial mass meridional recharge/discharge and zonal redistribution processes associated with wind-driven equatorial ocean waves. This wind-driven wave upwelling plays an important role in the development of the annual cycle in the sea surface temperature of the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Atlantic.

Michigan Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2012 IECC as Compared to the Michigan Uniform Energy Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-07-03

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) yields positive benefits for Michigan homeowners. Moving to the 2012 IECC from the Michigan Uniform Energy Code is cost-effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Michigan homeowners will save $10,081 with the 2012 IECC. Each year, the reduction to energy bills will significantly exceed increased mortgage costs. After accounting for up-front costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceeding cumulative cash outlays) in 1 year for the 2012 IECC. Average annual energy savings are $604 for the 2012 IECC.

Ohio Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2012 IECC as Compared to the 2009 IECC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-07-03

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) yields positive benefits for Ohio homeowners. Moving to the 2012 IECC from the 2009 IECC is cost-effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Ohio homeowners will save $5,151 with the 2012 IECC. Each year, the reduction to energy bills will significantly exceed increased mortgage costs. After accounting for up-front costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceeding cumulative cash outlays) in 1 year for the 2012 IECC. Average annual energy savings are $330 for the 2012 IECC.

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

Proxy-based reconstruction of erythemal UV doses over Estonia for 1955 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eerme, K.; Veismann, U.; Lätt, S.

2006-08-01

A proxy-based reconstruction of the erythemally-weighted UV doses for 1955-2004 has been performed for the Tartu-Tõravere Meteorological Station (58°16' N, 26°28' E, 70 m a.s.l.) site. The pyrheliometer-measured daily sum of direct irradiance on partly cloudy and clear days, and the pyranometer-measured daily sum of global irradiance on overcast days were used as the cloudiness influence related proxies. The TOMS ozone data have been used for detecting the daily deviations from the climatic value (averaged annual cycle). In 1998-2004, the biases between the measured and reconstructed daily doses in 55.5% of the cases were within ±10% and in 83.5% of the cases within ±20%, on average. In the summer half-year these amounts were 62% and 88%, respectively. In most years the results for longer intervals did not differ significantly, if no correction was made for the daily deviations of total ozone from its climatic value. The annual and summer half-yearly erythemal doses (contributing, on average, 89% of the annual value) agreed within ±2%, except for the years after major volcanic eruptions and one extremely fine weather year (2002). Using the daily relative sunshine duration as a proxy without detailed correction for atmospheric turbidity results in biases of 2-4% in the summer half-yearly dose in the years after major volcanic eruptions and a few other years of high atmospheric turbidity. The year-to-year variations of the summer half-yearly erythemal dose in 1955-2004 were found to be within 92-111% relative to their average value. Exclusion of eight extreme years reduces this range for the remaining to 95-105.5%. Due to the quasi-periodic alternation of wet and dry periods, the interval of cloudy summers 1976-1993 regularly manifests summer half-yearly erythemal dose values lower than the 1955-2004 average. Since 1996/1997 midwinters have been darker than on average.

Geomagnetic detection of the sectorial solar magnetic field and the historical peculiarity of minimum 23-24

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, J.

2012-01-01

[1] Analysis is made of the geomagnetic-activityaaindex covering solar cycle 11 to the beginning of 24, 1868–2011. Autocorrelation shows 27.0-d recurrent geomagnetic activity that is well-known to be prominent during solar-cycle minima; some minima also exhibit a smaller amount of 13.5-d recurrence. Previous work has shown that the recent solar minimum 23–24 exhibited 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence in geomagnetic and heliospheric data, but those recurrence intervals were not prominently present during the preceding minima 21–22 and 22–23. Using annual-averages and solar-cycle averages of autocorrelations of the historicalaadata, we put these observations into a long-term perspective: none of the 12 minima preceding 23–24 exhibited prominent 9.0 and 6.7-d geomagnetic activity recurrence. We show that the detection of these recurrence intervals can be traced to an unusual combination of sectorial spherical-harmonic structure in the solar magnetic field and anomalously low sunspot number. We speculate that 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence is related to transient large-scale, low-latitude organization of the solar dynamo, such as seen in some numerical simulations.

The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 2. Observed and Modeled Ice Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colgan, William Terence; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert S.; Steffen, Konrad; Zwally, H. Jay; Phillips, Thomas; Abdalati, Waleed

2012-01-01

Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.

The impact of biotic/abiotic interfaces in mineral nutrient cycling: A study of soils of the Santa Cruz chronosequence, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, A.F.; Schulz, M.S.; Vivit, D.V.; Bullen, T.D.; Fitzpatrick, J.

2012-01-01

Biotic/abiotic interactions between soil mineral nutrients and annual grassland vegetation are characterized for five soils in a marine terrace chronosequence near Santa Cruz, California. A Mediterranean climate, with wet winters and dry summers, controls the annual cycle of plant growth and litter decomposition, resulting in net above-ground productivities of 280-600gm -2yr -1. The biotic/abiotic (A/B) interface separates seasonally reversible nutrient gradients, reflecting biological cycling in the shallower soils, from downward chemical weathering gradients in the deeper soils. The A/B interface is pedologically defined by argillic clay horizons centered at soil depths of about one meter which intensify with soil age. Below these horizons, elevated solute Na/Ca, Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios reflect plagioclase and smectite weathering along pore water flow paths. Above the A/B interface, lower cation ratios denote temporal variability due to seasonal plant nutrient uptake and litter leaching. Potassium and Ca exhibit no seasonal variability beneath the A/B interface, indicating closed nutrient cycling within the root zone, whereas Mg variability below the A/B interface denotes downward leakage resulting from higher inputs of marine aerosols and lower plant nutrient requirements.The fraction of a mineral nutrient annually cycled through the plants, compared to that lost from pore water discharge, is defined their respective fluxes F j,plants=q j,plants/(q j,plants+q j,discharge) with average values for K and Ca (F K,plants=0.99; F Ca,plants=0.93) much higher than for Mg and Na (F Mg,plants 0.64; F Na,plants=0.28). The discrimination against Rb and Sr by plants is described by fractionation factors (K Sr/Ca=0.86; K Rb/K=0.83) which are used in Rayleigh fractionation-mixing calculations to fit seasonal patterns in solute K and Ca cycling. K Rb/K and K24Mg/22Mg values (derived from isotope data in the literature) fall within fractionation envelopes bounded by inputs from rainfall and mineral weathering. K Sr/Ca and K44Ca/40Ca fractionation factors fall outside these envelopes indicating that Ca nutrient cycling is closed to these external inputs. Small net positive K and Ca fluxes (6-14molm -2yr -1), based on annual mass balances, indicate that the soils are accumulating mineral nutrients, probably as a result of long-term environmental disequilibrium. ?? 2011.

Regionalization of winter low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bingham, R.H.

1986-01-01

Procedures were developed for estimating winter (December-April) low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to West Tennessee streams, and another set applies to Middle and East Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by the activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for West Tennessee are 22% - 35% and for middle and East Tennessee 31% - 36%. Statistical analyses indicate that summer low-flow characteristics are the same as annual low-flow characteristics, and that winter low flows are larger than annual low flows. Streamflow-recession indexes, in days per log cycle of decrease in discharge, were used to account for effects of geology on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that contribute to streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow-recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems of the Caatinga Biome.

PubMed

Menezes, R S C; Sampaio, E V S B; Giongo, V; Pérez-Marin, A M

2012-08-01

The biogeochemical cycles of C, N, P and water, the impacts of land use in the stocks and flows of these elements and how they can affect the structure and functioning of Caatinga were reviewed. About half of this biome is still covered by native secondary vegetation. Soils are deficient in nutrients, especially N and P. Average concentrations of total soil P and C in the top layer (0-20 cm) are 196 mg kg(-1) and 9.3 g kg(-1), corresponding to C stocks around 23 Mg ha(-1). Aboveground biomass of native vegetation varies from 30 to 50 Mg ha(-1), and average root biomass from 3 to 12 Mg ha(-1). Average annual productivities and biomass accumulation in different land use systems vary from 1 to 7 Mg ha(-1) year(-1). Biological atmospheric N2 fixation is estimated to vary from 3 to 11 kg N ha(-1) year-1 and 21 to 26 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) in mature and secondary Caatinga, respectively. The main processes responsible for nutrient and water losses are fire, soil erosion, runoff and harvest of crops and animal products. Projected climate changes in the future point to higher temperatures and rainfall decreases. In face of the high intrinsic variability, actions to increase sustainability should improve resilience and stability of the ecosystems. Land use systems based on perennial species, as opposed to annual species, may be more stable and resilient, thus more adequate to face future potential increases in climate variability. Long-term studies to investigate the potential of the native biodiversity or adapted exotic species to design sustainable land use systems should be encouraged.

OCCURRENCE OF HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS OVER THE GRAND MODERN MAXIMUM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mursula, K.; Holappa, L.; Lukianova, R., E-mail: kalevi.mursula@oulu.fi

2015-03-01

In the declining phase of the solar cycle (SC), when the new-polarity fields of the solar poles are strengthened by the transport of same-signed magnetic flux from lower latitudes, the polar coronal holes expand and form non-axisymmetric extensions toward the solar equator. These extensions enhance the occurrence of high-speed solar wind (SW) streams (HSS) and related co-rotating interaction regions in the low-latitude heliosphere, and cause moderate, recurrent geomagnetic activity (GA) in the near-Earth space. Here, using a novel definition of GA at high (polar cap) latitudes and the longest record of magnetic observations at a polar cap station, we calculatemore » the annually averaged SW speeds as proxies for the effective annual occurrence of HSS over the whole Grand Modern Maximum (GMM) from 1920s onward. We find that a period of high annual speeds (frequent occurrence of HSS) occurs in the declining phase of each of SCs 16-23. For most cycles the HSS activity clearly reaches a maximum in one year, suggesting that typically only one strong activation leading to a coronal hole extension is responsible for the HSS maximum. We find that the most persistent HSS activity occurred in the declining phase of SC 18. This suggests that cycle 19, which marks the sunspot maximum period of the GMM, was preceded by exceptionally strong polar fields during the previous sunspot minimum. This gives interesting support for the validity of solar dynamo theory during this dramatic period of solar magnetism.« less

The spatial and temporal variation of total suspended solid concentration in Pearl River Estuary during 1987-2015 based on remote sensing.

PubMed

Wang, Chongyang; Li, Weijiao; Chen, Shuisen; Li, Dan; Wang, Danni; Liu, Jia

2018-03-15

The movement and migration of total suspended solid (TSS) are the essential component of global material cycling and change. Based on the TSS concentrations retrieved from 112 scenes of Landsat remote sensing imageries during 1987-2015, the spatial and temporal variations of TSS concentration in high flow season and low flow seasons of six sub-regions (west shoal, west channel, middle shoal, east channel, east shoal and Pearl River Estuary Chinese White Dolphin National Nature Reserve and its adjacent waters (NNR)) of Pearl River Estuary (PRE) were analyzed and compared by statistical simulation. It was found that TSS concentrations in east and west shoals were about 23mg/L and 64mg/L higher than that of the middle shoal, respectively. There was a significant decreasing trend of TSS concentration from the northwest (223.7mg/L) to southeast (51.4mg/L) of study area, with an average reduction of 5.86mg/Lperkm, which mainly attributes to unique interaction of runoff and tide in PRE. In high flow season, there existed a significant and definite annual cycle period (5-8years) of TSS concentration change primarily responding to the periodic variation of precipitation. There were five full-fledged period changes of TSS detected in west shoal and west channel (the years of changes in 1988, 1994, 1998, 2003, 2010, 2015), while there were the last four cycle periods found in middle shoal, east channel, east shoal and NNR only. TSS concentrations in shoals and channels of PRE showed a significant decreased trend mainly due to the dam construction at the same time, with an average annual TSS concentration decrease of 5.7-10.1mg/L in high flow season from 1988 to 2015. There was no significant change trend of TSS concentration in NNR before 2003, but the TSS concentration decreased significantly after the establishment of the NNR since June 2003, with an average annual decrease of 9.7mg/L from 2004 to 2015. It was deduced that man-made protection measures had a great influence on the variation trend and intensity of TSS concentration in PRE, but had little effect on the cycle of TSS changes, indicating that the cyclical change is a very strong natural law. In low flow season, there was no significant change trend of TSS concentrations in PRE except that TSS concentrations in west channel and middle shoal showed a weak increasing trend (2.1mg/L and 2.9mg/L, respectively), which is probably because of controlled discharge for avoiding the intrusion of saltwater in PRE. Evidently, the change trend and cycle periods of TSS concentration in high- and low-flow seasons in six sub-regions of PRE had significant difference. The decreasing trend and cycle periods of TSS concentration mainly occurred in high flow season. The change trend and cycle periods of TSS concentration in low flow season was relatively small in PRE. The study shows that long series mapping of Landsat remote sensing images is an effective way to help understanding the spatial and temporal variation of TSS concentrations of estuaries and coasts, and to increase awareness of environmental change and human activity effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global surface-based cloud observation for ISCCP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Visual observations of cloud cover are hindered at night due to inadequate illumination of the clouds. This usually leads to an underestimation of the average cloud cover at night, especially for the amounts of middle and high clouds, in climatologies on surface observations. The diurnal cycles of cloud amounts, if based on all the surface observations, are therefore in error, but they can be obtained more accurately if the nighttime observations are screened to select those made under sufficient moonlight. Ten years of nighttime weather observations from the northern hemisphere in December were classified according to the illuminance of moonlight or twilight on the cloud tops, and a threshold level of illuminance was determined, above which the clouds are apparently detected adequately. This threshold corresponds to light from a full moon at an elevation angle of 6 degrees or from a partial moon at higher elevation, or twilight from the sun less than 9 degrees below the horizon. It permits the use of about 38% of the observations made with the sun below the horizon. The computed diurnal cycles of total cloud cover are altered considerably when this moonlight criterion is imposed. Maximum cloud cover over much of the ocean is now found to be at night or in the morning, whereas computations obtained without benefit of the moonlight criterion, as in our published atlases, showed the time of maximum to be noon or early afternoon in many regions. Cloud cover is greater at night than during the day over the open oceans far from the continents, particularly in summer. However, near noon maxima are still evident in the coastal regions, so that the global annual average oceanic cloud cover is still slightly greater during the day than at night, by 0.3%. Over land, where daytime maxima are still obtained but with reduced amplitude, average cloud cover is 3.3% greater during the daytime. The diurnal cycles of total cloud cover we obtain are compared with those of ISCCP for a few regions; they are generally in better agreement if the moonlight criterion is imposed on the surface observations. Using the moonlight criterion, we have analyzed ten years (1982-1991) of surface weather observations over land and ocean, worldwide, for total cloud cover and for the frequency of occurrence of clear sky, fog and precipitation The global average cloud cover (average of day and night) is about 2% higher if we impose the moonlight criterion than if we use all observations. The difference is greater in winter than in summer, because of the fewer hours of darkness in the summer. The amplitude of the annual cycle of total cloud cover over the Arctic Ocean and at the South Pole is diminished by a few percent when the moonlight criterion is imposed. The average cloud cover for 1982-1991 is found to be 55% for northern hemisphere land, 53% for southern hemisphere land, 66% for northern hemisphere ocean, and 70% for southern hemisphere ocean, giving a global average of 64%. The global average for daytime is 64.6% for nighttime 63.3%.

Water limitations on forest carbon cycling and conifer traits along a steep climatic gradient in the Cascade Mountains, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

2015-11-01

Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades, and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the transition from low-elevation, dry western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) woodlands to higher-elevation, wetter ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. We examined 12 sites in mature forests that spanned a 1300 mm yr-1 gradient in mean growing-year climate moisture index (CMIgy ), computed annually (1964 to 2013) as monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration and summed October to September. Maximum leaf area, annual aboveground productivity, and aboveground live tree biomass increased with CMIgy (r2 = 0.67-0.88, P < 0.05), approximately 50-, 30-, and 10-fold along this drier to wetter gradient. Interannual fluctuations in CMI affected the annual radial growth of 91 % of juniper, 51 % of pine, and 12 % of fir individuals from 1964 to 2013. The magnitude of the site-average growth-CMI correlations decreased with increased CMIgy (r2 = 0.53, P < 0.05). All three species, particularly fir, experienced pronounced declines in radial growth from c. 1985 to 1994, coinciding with a period of sustained below-average CMIgy and extensive insect outbreak. Traits of stress-tolerant juniper included short stature, high wood density for cavitation resistance, and high investment in water transport relative to leaf area. Species occupying wetter areas invested more resources in height growth in response to competition for light relative to investment in hydraulic architecture. Consequently, maximum tree height, leaf area : sapwood area ratio, and stem wood density were all correlated with CMIgy . The tight coupling of forest carbon cycling and species traits with water availability suggests that warmer and drier conditions projected for the 21st century could have significant biogeochemical, ecological, and social consequences in the Pacific Northwest.

Water limitations on forest carbon cycling and conifer traits along a steep climatic gradient in the Cascade Mountains, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

2015-09-01

Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the transition from low-elevation, dry western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) woodlands to higher-elevation, wetter ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. We examined 12 sites in mature forests that spanned a 1300 mm yr-1 gradient in mean growing-year climate moisture index (CMIgy ), computed annually (1964 to 2013) as monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration and summed October to September. Maximum leaf area, annual aboveground productivity, and aboveground live tree biomass increased with CMIgy (r2 = 0.58-0.85, P < 0.05), approximately 50-, 30-, and 10-fold along this drier to wetter gradient. Interannual fluctuations in CMI affected the annual radial growth of 91 % of juniper, 51 % of pine, and 12 % of fir from 1964 to 2013. The magnitude of the site-average growth-CMI correlations decreased with increased CMIgy (r2 = 0.65, P < 0.05). All three species, particularly fir, experienced pronounced declines in radial growth from ca. 1985 to 1994, coinciding with a period of sustained below-average CMIgy and extensive insect outbreak. Traits of stress-tolerant juniper included short stature, high wood density for cavitation resistance, and high investment in water transport relative to leaf area. Species occupying wetter areas invested more resources in height growth in response to competition for light relative to investment in hydraulic architecture. Correspondingly, maximum tree height, leaf area:sapwood area ratio, and stem wood density were all correlated with CMIgy . The tight coupling of forest carbon cycling and species traits with water availability suggests that warmer and drier conditions projected for the 21st century could have significant biogeochemical, ecological, and social consequences in the Pacific Northwest.

Apple dwarfing rootstocks and interstocks affect the type of growth units produced during the annual growth cycle: precocious transition to flowering affects the composition and vigour of annual shoots.

PubMed

Seleznyova, Alla N; Tustin, D Stuart; Thorp, T Grant

2008-04-01

Precocious flowering in apple trees is often associated with a smaller tree size. The hypothesis was tested that floral evocation in axillary buds, induced by dwarfing rootstocks, reduces the vigour of annual shoots developing from these buds compared with shoots developing from vegetative buds. The experimental system provided a wide range of possible tree vigour using 'Royal Gala' scions and M.9 (dwarfing) and MM.106 (non-dwarfing) as rootstocks and interstocks. Second-year annual shoots were divided into growth units corresponding to periods (flushes) of growth namely, vegetative spur, extension growth unit, uninterrupted growth unit, floral growth unit (bourse) and extended bourse. The differences between the floral and vegetative shoots were quantified by the constituent growth units produced. The dwarfing influence was expressed, firstly, in reduced proportions of shoots that contained at least one extension growth unit and secondly, in reduced proportions of bicyclic shoots (containing two extension growth units) and shoots with an uninterrupted growth unit. In treatments where floral shoots were present, they were markedly less vigorous than vegetative shoots with respect to both measures. In treatments with M.9 rootstock, vegetative and floral shoots produced on average 0.52 and 0.17 extension growth units, compared with 0.77 extension growth units per shoot in the MM.106 rootstock treatment. Remarkably, the number of nodes per extension growth unit was not affected by the rootstock/interstock treatments. These results showed that rootstocks/interstocks affect the type of growth units produced during the annual growth cycle, reducing the number of extension growth units, thus affecting the composition and vigour of annual shoots. This effect is particularly amplified by the transition to flowering induced by dwarfing rootstocks. The division of annual shoot into growth units will also be useful for measuring and modelling effects of age on apple tree architecture.

20 CFR 30.805 - What evidence does OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced compensable wage-loss... OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced... the Social Security Administration to establish a covered Part E employee's presumed average annual...

20 CFR 30.805 - What evidence does OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced compensable wage-loss... OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced... the Social Security Administration to establish a covered Part E employee's presumed average annual...

Changes in the Amplitude and Phase of the Annual Cycle: quantifying from surface wind series in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Tao

2013-04-01

Climate change is not only reflected in the changes in annual means of climate variables but also in the changes in their annual cycles (seasonality), especially in the regions outside the tropics. Changes in the timing of seasons, especially the wind season, have gained much attention worldwide in recent decade or so. We introduce long-range correlated surrogate data to Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method, which represent the statistic characteristics of data better than white noise. The new method we named Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Long-range Correlated noise (EEMD-LRC) and applied to 600 station wind speed records. This new method is applied to investigate the trend in the amplitude of the annual cycle of China's daily mean surface wind speed for the period 1971-2005. The amplitude of seasonal variation decrease significantly in the past half century over China, which can be well explained by Annual Cycle component from EEMD-LRC. Furthermore, the phase change of annual cycle lead to strongly shorten of wind season in spring, and corresponding with strong windy day frequency change over Northern China.

TRMM-Based Lightning Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2011-01-01

Gridded climatologies of total lightning flash rates seen by the spaceborne Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) have been updated. OTD collected data from May 1995 to March 2000. LIS data (equatorward of about 38 deg) has been added for 1998-2010. Flash counts from each instrument are scaled by the best available estimates of detection efficiency. The long LIS record makes the merged climatology most robust in the tropics and subtropics, while the high latitude data is entirely from OTD. The mean global flash rate from the merged climatology is 46 flashes per second. The peak annual flash rate at 0.5 deg scale is 160 fl/square km/yr in eastern Congo. The peak monthly average flash rate at 2.5 scale is 18 fl/square km/mo, from early April to early May in the Brahmaputra Valley of far eastern India. Lightning decreases in this region during the monsoon season, but increases further north and west. A monthly average peak from early August to early September in northern Pakistan also exceeds any monthly averages from Africa, despite central Africa having the greatest yearly average. Most continental regions away from the equator have an annual cycle with lightning flash rates peaking in late spring or summer. The main exceptions are India and southeast Asia, with springtime peaks in April and May. For landmasses near the equator, flash rates peak near the equinoxes. For many oceanic regions, the peak flash rates occur in autumn. This is particularly noticeable for the Mediterranean and North Atlantic. Landmasses have a strong diurnal cycle of lightning, with flash rates generally peaking between 3-5 pm local solar time. The central United States flash rates peak later, in late evening or early night. Flash rates peak after midnight in northern Argentina. These regions are known for large, intense, long-lived mesoscale convective systems.

Rapid changes in the seasonal sea level cycle along the US Gulf coast in the early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Calafat, F. M.; Luther, M. E.

2013-12-01

The seasonal cycle is an energetic component in the sea level spectrum and dominates the intra-annual sea level variability outside the semidiurnal and diurnal tidal bands in most regions. Changes in the annual or semi-annual amplitudes or phase lags have an immediate impact on marine coastal systems. Increases in the amplitudes or phase shifts towards the storm surge season may for instance exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding and/or beach erosion, and the ecological health of estuarine systems is also coupled to the seasonal sea level cycle. Here, we investigate the temporal variability of the seasonal harmonics along the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastline using records from 13 tide gauges providing at least 30 years of data in total and at least 15 years for the period after 1990. The longest records go back to the early 20th century. Running Fourier analysis (with a window length of 5-years) is used to extract the seasonal harmonics from the observations. The resulting time series show a considerable decadal variability and no longer-term changes are found in the phase lags and the semi-annual amplitude. The amplitude of the dominating annual cycle in contrast shows a tendency towards higher values since the turn of the century at tide gauges in the eastern part of the GOM. This increase of up to more than 25% is found to be significant at the 90% confidence level for most tide gauges along the coastline of West Florida and at the 75% confidence level for virtually all stations in the eastern GOM (from Key West to Dauphin Island). Monthly mean sea level sub-series show that the changes are partly due to smaller values in the cold season but mostly a result of higher values in the warm season, i.e. sea levels tend to be higher during the hurricane season. We use information on the steric sea level component, sea surface and air temperature, wind forcing, precipitation, and sea level pressure to explain the mechanisms driving the decadal variability in the annual amplitude and the rapid increase over the last decade in the eastern GOM. We have developed several multiple regression models (MRM) with a varying number of independent predictors to reconstruct the temporal changes back to the mid and early 20th century (depending on data availability of the predictors). The models are able to explain up to 85% of the observed variability (70% on average across sites) and major parts of the rapid increase in the early 21st century. Multicollinearity between the predictors makes it difficult to quantify the contribution of individual parameters to the increase but sensitivity tests outline that changes in the annual cycle of the air surface temperature (which in turn directly propagates into the sea surface temperature) played a dominant role. The MRMs allow us to reconstruct the seasonal sea level cycle back to the early 20th century at all tide gauge sites and will be used in a follow-up study in combination with regional climate model output to assess potential future changes.

Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, A. J.; Moore, S. M.; Sampson, K. M.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.

2015-12-01

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.

Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States.

PubMed

Monaghan, Andrew J; Moore, Sean M; Sampson, Kevin M; Beard, Charles B; Eisen, Rebecca J

2015-07-01

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010-11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlo Espinoza, Jhan; Ronchail, Josyane; Loup Guyot, Jean; Junquas, Clementine; Drapeau, Guillaume; Martinez, Jean Michel; Santini, William; Vauchel, Philippe; Lavado, Waldo; Ordoñez, Julio; Espinoza, Raúl

2012-06-01

In this work we document and analyze the hydrological annual cycles characterized by a rapid transition between low and high flows in the Amazonas River (Peruvian Amazon) and we show how these events, which may impact vulnerable riverside residents, are related to regional climate variability. Our analysis is based on comprehensive discharge, rainfall and average suspended sediment data sets. Particular attention is paid to the 2010-11 hydrological year, when an unprecedented abrupt transition from the extreme September 2010 drought (8300 m3 s-1) to one of the four highest discharges in April 2011 (49 500 m3 s-1) was recorded at Tamshiyacu (Amazonas River). This unusual transition is also observed in average suspended sediments. Years with a rapid increase in discharge are characterized by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during austral summer, corresponding to a La Niña-like mode. It originates a geopotential height wave train over the subtropical South Pacific and southeastern South America, with a negative anomaly along the southern Amazon and the southeastern South Atlantic convergence zone region. As a consequence, the monsoon flux is retained over the Amazon and a strong convergence of humidity occurs in the Peruvian Amazon basin, favoring high rainfall and discharge. These features are also reported during the 2010-11 austral summer, when an intense La Niña event characterized the equatorial Pacific.

Three-Dimensional Water and Carbon Cycle Modeling at High Spatial-Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, C.; Zhuang, Q.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems in cryosphere are very sensitive to the global climate change due to the presence of snow covers, mountain glaciers and permafrost, especially when the increase in near surface air temperature is almost twice as large as the global average. However, few studies have investigated the water and carbon cycle dynamics using process-based hydrological and biogeochemistry modeling approach. In this study, we used three-dimensional modeling approach at high spatial-temporal resolutions to investigate the water and carbon cycle dynamics for the Tanana Flats Basin in interior Alaska with emphases on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. The results have shown that: (1) lateral flow plays an important role in water and carbon cycle, especially in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. (2) approximately 2.0 × 104 kg C yr-1 DOC is exported to the hydrological networks and it compromises 1% and 0.01% of total annual gross primary production (GPP) and total organic carbon stored in soil, respectively. This study has established an operational and flexible framework to investigate and predict the water and carbon cycle dynamics under the changing climate.

Convective organization in the Pacific ITCZ: Merging OLR, TOVS, and SSM/I information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayes, Patrick M.; Mcguirk, James P.

1993-01-01

One of the most striking features of the planet's long-time average cloudiness is the zonal band of concentrated convection lying near the equator. Large-scale variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has been well documented in studies of the planetary spatial scales and seasonal/annual/interannual temporal cycles of convection. Smaller-scale variability is difficult to study over the tropical oceans for several reasons. Conventional surface and upper-air data are virtually non-existent in some regions; diurnal and annual signals overwhelm fluctuations on other time scales; and analyses of variables such as geopotential and moisture are generally less reliable in the tropics. These problems make the use of satellite data an attractive alternative and the preferred means to study variability of tropical weather systems.

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present and projected future climate conditions: a models' intercomparison perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, V.

2010-09-01

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of several GCMs and RCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report on their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for present and (in the case of the GCMs) projected future climate conditions. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few data sets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta. This occurs in spite of common nesting of the RCMs into the same run of the same AGCM, and even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. We find consistently that, for a given model, increases in the resolution do not alter the net water balance, while speeding up the hydrological cycle through the enhancement of both precipitation and evaporation by the same amount. We propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face difficulties in representing the water balance even on a relatively large scale. Moreover, since for some models the hydrological balance estimates obtained with the runoff fields do not agree with those obtained via precipitation and evaporation, some deficiencies of the land models are also apparent. In the case of the GCMs, the span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are, surprisingly, comparable to those of the RCMs. Both RCMs and GCMs greatly outperform the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses in representing the present climate conditions. The reanalyses result to be largely inadequate for describing the hydrology of the Danube river basin, both for the reconstruction of the long-term averages and of the seasonal cycle. The reanalyses cannot in any sense be used as verification. In global warming conditions, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. We note that for some of the diagnostics the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of "average" model, and it often falls between the models’ clusters. We suggest that these results should be carefully considered in the perspective of auditing climate models and assessing their ability to simulate future climate changes.

Evolution of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the late Holocene and insolation driven change in the tropical annual SST cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loubere, Paul; Creamer, Winifred; Haas, Jonathan

2013-01-01

South American lake sediment records indicate that El Nino events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) became more frequent after 3000 calendar years BP. The reason for this evolution of ENSO behavior remains in question. An important trigger for ocean-atmosphere state switching in the tropical ocean is the annual cycle of sea surface temperature south of the equator along the margin of South America. This annual cycle can be reconstructed from the oxygen isotope records of the surf clam Mesodesma donacium. We provide evidence that these isotope records, as preserved in archeological deposits in coastal central Peru, reflect seasonal paleo-SST. We find that the annual SST cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific became larger over the 4500-2500 calendar year BP interval. This is consistent with increased ENSO variability. The magnification of the annual SST cycle can be attributed to changing insolation, indicating that ENSO is sensitive to the intensity and seasonal timing of solar heating of the southern EEP.

Periodicity of sunspot group number during the Maunder Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, P. X.

2017-12-01

Applying the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) method to the yearly average sunspot group (SG) number reconstructed by Svalgaard & Schatten, we investigate the periodicity of SG number from 1610 to 2015. Our main findings are summarized below. Periodicities of 3.56 ± 0.24 (Quasi-Triennial Oscillations), 9.22 ± 0.13 (Schwabe Cycle), 16.91 ± 0.99 (Hale Cycle), 49.25 ± 0.96, 118.64 ± 2.52 (Centennial Gleissberg Cycle), and 206.32 ± 4.60 yr are statistically significant in the SG numbers. During the Maunder Minimum (MM), the occurrences of the Schwabe Cycle and the Hale Cycle, extracted from SG numbers, are suspended; before and after the MM, Schwabe Cycle and the Hale Cycle, extracted from SG numbers, all exist. The results of applying the Morlet Wavelet Analysis to the SG number confirm that, for SG number, the occurrence of the Schwabe Cycle is suspended during the MM, and, before and after the MM, the Schwabe Cycle all exist. Then we investigate the periodicity in the annual 10Be data from 1391 to 1983, which are given in a supplementary file to McCracken & Beer, using HHT and the Morlet wavelet transform. We find that, for the 10Be data, the Schwabe Cycle and the Hale Cycle persist throughout the MM. Our results support the suggestion that the Schwabe Cycle is too weak to be detected in the sunspot data.

Rapid increase in cosmogenic 14C in AD 775 measured in New Zealand kauri trees indicates short-lived increase in 14C production spanning both hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güttler, D.; Adolphi, F.; Beer, J.; Bleicher, N.; Boswijk, G.; Christl, M.; Hogg, A.; Palmer, J.; Vockenhuber, C.; Wacker, L.; Wunder, J.

2015-02-01

In 2012, Miyake et al. reported a sudden and strong increase of the atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) content in Japanese cedar trees of 1.2% between AD 774 and 775. While their findings were quickly confirmed by a German oak chronology for the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the question remained if the effect was seen in both hemispheres. Here we present the first annually resolved Southern Hemisphere (SH) 14C record spanning the interval AD 760-787, using New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) chronology wood. An almost identical distinct increase compared to Northern Hemisphere data was observed, suggesting a cosmic event with globally uniform impact as a potential cause for the increase. Deploying a carbon cycle box model a worldwide averaged net 14C production of 2.2 ×108 14C atoms cm-2 was estimated, which is 3.7 times higher than the average annual 14C production. The immediate appearance of the event in tree rings on both hemispheres suggests a short duration event of significantly less than 1 yr.

Annual and solar cycle dependencies of SuperDARN scatter occurrence and ionospheric convection measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lester, M.; Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.

2012-12-01

The Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) provides a long term data series which enables investigations of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The network has been in existence essentially since 1995 when 6 radars were operational in the northern hemisphere and 4 in the southern hemisphere. We have been involved in an analysis of the data over the lifetime of the project and present results here from two key studies. In the first study we calculated the amount of ionospheric scatter which is observed by the radars and see clear annual and solar cycle variations in both hemispheres. The recent extended solar minimum also produces a significant effect in the scatter occurrence. In the second study, we have determined the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection for the interval 1996 - 2011. We find that the average latitude of the HMB at midnight is 61° magnetic latitude during solar the maximum of 2003, but it moves significantly poleward during solar minimum, averaging 64° latitude during 1996, and 68° during 2010. This poleward motion is observed despite the increasing number of low latitude radars built in recent years as part of the StormDARN network, and so is not an artefact of data coverage. We believe that the recent extreme solar minimum led to an average HMB location that was further poleward than the previous solar cycle. We have also calculated the Open-Closed field line Boundary (OCB) from auroral images during a subset of the interval (2000 - 2002) and find that on average the HMB is located equatorward of the OCB by ~7o. We suggest that the HMB may be a useful proxy for the OCB when global images are not available. The work presented in this paper has been undertaken as part of the European Cluster Assimilation Technology (ECLAT) project which is funded through the EU FP7 programme and involves groups at Leicester, Helsinki, Uppsala, FMI, Graz and St. Petersburg. The aim of the project is to provide additional data sets, primarily ground based data, to the Cluster Active Archive, and its successor the Cluster Final Archive, in order to enhance the scientific productivity of the archives.

Bet hedging via seed banking in desert evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): demographic evidence from natural populations.

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Ferrière, Régis; Kane, Michael J; Venable, D Lawrence

2007-02-01

Bet hedging is one solution to the problem of an unpredictably variable environment: fitness in the average environment is sacrificed in favor of lower variation in fitness if this leads to higher long-run stochastic mean fitness. While bet hedging is an important concept in evolutionary ecology, empirical evidence that it occurs is scant. Here we evaluate whether bet hedging occurs via seed banking in natural populations of two species of desert evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae), one annual and one perennial. Four years of data on plants and 3 years of data on seeds yielded two transitions for the entire life cycle. One year was exceptionally dry, leading to reproductive failure in the sample areas, and the other was above average in precipitation, leading to reproductive success in four of five populations. Stochastic simulations of population growth revealed patterns indicative of bet hedging via seed banking, particularly in the annual populations: variance in fitness and fitness in the average environment were lower with seed banking than without, whereas long-run stochastic mean fitness was higher with seed banking than without across a wide range of probabilities of the wet year. This represents a novel, unusually rigorous demonstration of bet hedging from field data.

The role of temperature in the variability and extremes of electricity and gas demand in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, H. E.; Hoskins, B. J.; Scaife, A. A.

2016-11-01

The daily relationship of electricity and gas demand with temperature in Great Britain is analysed from 1975 to 2013 and 1996 to 2013 respectively. The annual mean and annual cycle amplitude of electricity demand exhibit low frequency variability. This low frequency variability is thought to be predominantly driven by socio-economic changes rather than temperature variation. Once this variability is removed, both daily electricity and gas demand have a strong anti-correlation with temperature (r elec = -0.90 , r gas = -0.94). However these correlations are inflated by the changing demand-temperature relationship during spring and autumn. Once the annual cycles of temperature and demand are removed, the correlations are {r}{{elec}}=-0.60 and {r}{{gas}}=-0.83. Winter then has the strongest demand-temperature relationship, during which a 1 °C reduction in daily temperature typically gives a ˜1% increase in daily electricity demand and a 3%-4% increase in gas demand. Extreme demand periods are assessed using detrended daily temperature observations from 1772. The 1 in 20 year peak day electricity and gas demand estimates are, respectively, 15% (range 14%-16%) and 46% (range 44%-49%) above their average winter day demand during the last decade. The risk of demand exceeding recent extreme events, such as during the winter of 2009/2010, is also quantified.

Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abahous, H.; Ronchail, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Kenny, L.; Bouchaou, L.

2017-11-01

In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932-2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932-2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.

Climatic Variability of Precipitation from the Seasonal Cycle to ENSO Using GPCP's Merged Data Product and SSM/I-Based Microwave Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Huffman, George; Nelkin, Eric

1999-01-01

Satellite estimates and gauge observations of precipitation are useful in understanding the water cycle, analyzing climatic variability, and validating climate models. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) released a community merged precipitation data set for the period July 1987 through the present, and has recently extended that data set back to 1986. One objective of this study is to use GPCP estimates to describe and quantify the seasonal variation of precipitation, with emphasis on the Asian summer monsoon. Another focus is the 1997-98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and associated extreme precipitation events. The summer monsoon tends to be drier than normal in El Nino ears. This was not observed for 1997 or 1998, while for 1997 the NCEP model produced the largest summer rain rates over India in years. This inconsistency will be examined. The average annual global precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day as estimated by GPCP, which is similar to values computed from long-term climatologies. From 30 deg N to 30 deg S the average precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day over land with a maximum in the annual cycle occurring in February-March, when the Amazon basin receives abundant rainfall. The average precipitation rate is 3.1 mm day over the tropical oceans, with a peak earlier in the season (November-December), corresponding with the transition from a strong Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from June to November to a strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) from December to March. The seasonal evolution of C, C, the Asian summer monsoon stands out with rains in excess of 15 mm day off the coast of Burma in June. The GPROF pentad data also captures the onset of the tropical Pacific rainfall patterns associated with the 1997-98 ENSO. From February to October 1997 at least four rain-producing systems traveled from West to East in the equatorial corridor. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions occurred in May-June 1998. GPCP and GPROF were used to construct precipitation-based ENSO indices to monitor El Ninos (EL) and La Ninas and (LI).

Stand age and climate drive forest carbon balance recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Besnard, Simon; Carvalhais, Nuno; Clevers, Jan; Herold, Martin; Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus

2016-04-01

Forests play an essential role in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, especially in the C exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. Ecological disturbances and forest management are drivers of forest dynamics and strongly impact the forest C budget. However, there is a lack of knowledge on the exogenous and endogenous factors driving forest C recovery. Our analysis includes 68 forest sites in different climate zones to determine the relative influence of stand age and climate conditions on the forest carbon balance recovery. In this study, we only included forest regrowth after clear-cut stand replacement (e.g. harvest, fire), and afforestation/reforestation processes. We synthesized net ecosystem production (NEP), gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Re), the photosynthetic respiratory ratio (GPP to Re ratio), the ecosystem carbon use efficiency (CUE), that is NEP to GPP ratio, and CUEclimax, where GPP is derived from the climate conditions. We implemented a non-linear regression analysis in order to identify the best model representing the C flux patterns with stand age. Furthermore, we showed that each C flux have a non-linear relationship with stand age, annual precipitation (P) and mean annual temperature (MAT), therefore, we proposed to use non-linear transformations of the covariates for C fluxes'estimates. Non-linear stand age and climate models were, therefore, used to establish multiple linear regressions for C flux predictions and for determining the contribution of stand age and climate in forest carbon recovery. Our findings depicted that a coupled stand age-climate model explained 33% (44%, average site), 62% (76%, average site), 56% (71%, average site), 41% (59%, average site), 50% (65%, average site) and 36% (50%, average site) of the variance of annual NEP, GPP, Re, photosynthetic respiratory ratio, CUE and CUEclimax across sites, respectively. In addition, we showed that gross fluxes (e.g. GPP and Re) are mainly climatically driven with 54.2% (68.4%, average site) and 54.1% (71.0%, average site) of GPP and Re variability, respectively, explained by the sum of MAT and P. However, annual NEP, GPP to Re ratio and CUEclimax are affected by both forest stand age and climate conditions, in particular MAT. The key result is that forest stand age plays a crucial role in determining CUE (36.4% and 48.2% for all years per site and average site, respectively), while climate conditions have less effect on CUE (13.6% and 15.4% for all years per site and average site, respectively). These findings are relevant for the implementation of Earth system models and imply that information both on forest stand age and climate conditions are critical to improve the accuracy of global terrestrial C models's estimates.

Intra-annual variation in habitat choice by an endemic woodpecker: Implications for forest management and conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-del-Rey, Eduardo; Fernández-Palacios, José María; Muñoz, Pascual Gil

2009-09-01

The Canary Islands great spotted woodpecker Dendrocopos major canariensis is an endemic bird restricted to the Pinus canariensis forests of Tenerife and Gran Canaria. Classification tree models were applied to explore the relationship of the occurrence of this picid and habitat variables between two contrasting periods (breeding vs. non-breeding seasons) and for the entire annual cycle. During the reproductive period the availability of mature trees (DBH > 60 cm), and snags (dead trees), for nesting and roosting, characterize the breeding territory. Outside the breeding season the choice of locations was driven by a tree cover larger than 28.5% and the presence of trees taller than 8.5 m on average, a pattern explained by the availability of pine seeds in the cones of well-developed canopies, and less so by predation risk. Overall, during the annual cycle, well-developed canopy sites influenced the presence of this picidae (tree cover > 38%) and on more open sites (<38%) the presence of mature trees (DBH> 60 cm) became the second most important predictor of occurrence. We suggest that food abundance and availability could be the ultimate factor explaining the intra-annual variation observed, with the availability of snags being an important factor during nesting. In the range of this endemic, we recommend selective cuts in pine plantations, to allow the trees to set seed and improve their crops, minimizing the elimination of snags, and killing some large pine trees if the priority is to expand the distributional range of the woodpecker.

How tropical cyclone inter-annual timing and trajectory control gross primary productivity in the SE US at seasonal and annual timescales and impacts on mountain forest eco-hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, L.; Barros, A.

2015-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are an important source of freshwater input to the SE US eco-hydrologic function. Soil moisture, a temporal integral of precipitation, is critical to plant photosynthesis and carbon assimilation. In this study, we investigate the impact TCs have on gross primary productivity (GPP) in the SE US using the physically-based Duke Coupled Hydrology Model with Vegetation (DCHM-V) which includes coupled water and energy cycles and a biochemical representation of photosynthesis. A parsimonious evaluation of model-estimated GPP against all available AmeriFlux data in the SE US is presented. We characterize the seasonality of vegetation activity in the SE US by simulating water, energy, and carbon fluxes using the DCHM-V at high spatial (4 km) and temporal (30-min) resolution over the period 2002 - 2012. The model is run offline using atmospheric forcing data from NLDAS-2, precipitation from StageIV, and phenology indices from MODIS FPAR/LAI. Analysis of model results show the tendency for low GPP to occur in the Appalachian Mountains during peak summer months when water stress limits stomatal function. We contrast these simulations with model runs where periods of TC activity are replaced with the monthly climatological diurnal cycle from NARR. Results show that the timing and trajectory of TCs are key to understanding their impact on GPP across the SE US. Specifically: 1) Timing of moisture input from TCs greatly influences the vegetation response. TCs during peak summer months increase GPP and years with TCs falling in peak summer months see much higher annual GPP averages; 2) Years of drought and low plant productivity (2006-2007, 2011-2012) in the SE US tend to have TCs that fall later in the year when the additional moisture input does not have a significant impact on vegetation activity; and 3) TC path impacts regional GPP averages. The mountain region shows large inter- and intra-annual variability in plant productivity and high sensitivity to water stress. The Appalachian mountain region tends to have higher GPP when TC trajectories are closer in proximity.

Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

2018-04-01

The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

50 CFR 217.172 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... dolphin (Grampus griseus)—100 (an average of 20 annually). (vi) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—100 (an... right whale (Eubalaena glacialis)—120 (an average of 24 annually). (ii) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—145 (an average of 29 annually). (iii) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—390 (an average of 78...

50 CFR 217.172 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... dolphin (Grampus griseus)—100 (an average of 20 annually). (vi) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—100 (an... right whale (Eubalaena glacialis)—120 (an average of 24 annually). (ii) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—145 (an average of 29 annually). (iii) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—390 (an average of 78...

The role of fire in the boreal carbon budget

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, J.W.; Trumbore, S.E.; Stocks, B.J.; Hirsch, A.; Gower, S.T.; O'Neill, K. P.; Kasischke, E.S.

2000-01-01

To reconcile observations of decomposition rates, carbon inventories, and net primary production (NPP), we estimated long-term averages for C exchange in boreal forests near Thompson, Manitoba. Soil drainage as defined by water table, moss cover, and permafrost dynamics, is the dominant control on direct fire emissions. In upland forests, an average of about 10-30% of annual NPP was likely consumed by fire over the past 6500 years since these landforms and ecosystems were established. This long-term, average fire emission is much larger than has been accounted for in global C cycle models and may forecast an increase in fire activity for this region. While over decadal to century times these boreal forests may be acting as slight net sinks for C from the atmosphere to land, periods of drought and severe fire activity may result in net sources of C from these systems.

ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT AND DRIFT, MODELED AS A VISCOUS FLUID.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ling, Chi-Hai; Parkinson, Claire L.

1986-01-01

A dynamic/thermodynamic numerical model of sea ice has been used to calculate the yearly cycle of sea ice thicknesses, concentrations, and velocities in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The model combines the formulations of two previous models, taking the thermodynamics and momentum equations from the model of Parkinson and Washington and adding the constitutive equation and equation of state from the model of Ling, Rasmussen, and Campbell. Simulated annually averaged ice drift vectors compare well with observed ice drift from the Arctic Ocean Buoy Program.

A Survey of Employment Opportunities in the Atmospheric Sciences, 1981-1991.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, Howard P.

1993-06-01

Results from an analysis of 11 years of the AMS Employment Announcements newsletter are discussed. The strongest signals in the record of various job categories are the annual cycle in advertisements of tenure-track faculty positions and the interannual variations in the overall market, which are dominated by private-sector positions. On average, there are 23±9 new positions announced each month, with maxima in March and November and the minimum in July. The overall market grew throughout the mid-1980s, but has declined in recent years.

Annual Cycles of Deep-ocean, Biogeochemical Export Fluxes and Biological Pump Processes in Subtropical and Subantarctic Waters, Southwest Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nodder, S.; Chiswell, S.; Northcote, L.

2016-02-01

One of the key aspects of the global carbon cycle is the efficiency and spatio-temporal variability of the biological pump. In this paper, the annual cycles of particle fluxes, derived from moored sediment trap data collected from 2000-12 in subtropical (STW) and subantarctic waters (SAW), east of New Zealand, are presented. These observations are the most comprehensive export flux time-series from temperate Southern Hemisphere latitudes to date. With high levels of variability, fluxes in SAW were markedly lower than in STW, reflecting the picophytoplankton-dominated communities in the iron-limited, high nutrient-low chlorophyll SAW. Austral spring chlorophyll blooms in surface STW were near-synchronous with elevated fluxes of bio-siliceous, carbonate and organic carbon-rich materials to the deep ocean, probably facilitated by diatom sedimentation. Lithogenic fluxes were also high in STW, compared to SAW, reflecting proximity to the New Zealand landmass. In contrast, the highest biogenic fluxes in SAW occurred in spring when surface chlorophyll concentrations were low, while highest annual chlorophyll concentrations were in summer with no associated flux increase. We hypothesize that the high spring export in SAW occurs from subsurface chlorophyll accumulations that are not evident from remote-sensing satellites. This material was also rich in biogenic silica, perhaps related to the preferential export of diatoms and other silica-producing organisms, such as silicoflagellates and radiolarians. Particle fluxes in STW are similar to that of other mesotrophic to oligotrophic waters ( 6-7 mgC m-2 d-1), whereas export from SAW is below global averages ( 3 mgC m-2 d-1), and is characterized by carbonate-dominated and prominent bio-siliceous deposition.

On-road PM2.5 pollution exposure in multiple transport microenvironments in Delhi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, Rahul; Gani, Shahzad; Guttikunda, Sarath K.; Wilson, Daniel; Tiwari, Geetam

2015-12-01

PM2.5 pollution in Delhi averaged 150 μg/m3 from 2012 through 2014, which is 15 times higher than the World Health Organization's annual-average guideline. For this setting, we present on-road exposure of PM2.5 concentrations for 11 transport microenvironments along a fixed 8.3-km arterial route, during morning rush hour. The data collection was carried out using a portable TSI DustTrak DRX 8433 aerosol monitor, between January and May (2014). The monthly-average measured ambient concentrations varied from 130 μg/m3 to 250 μg/m3. The on-road PM2.5 concentrations exceeded the ambient measurements by an average of 40% for walking, 10% for cycle, 30% for motorised two wheeler (2W), 30% for open-windowed (OW) car, 30% for auto rickshaw, 20% for air-conditioned as well as for OW bus, 20% for bus stop, and 30% for underground metro station. On the other hand, concentrations were lower by 50% inside air-conditioned (AC) car and 20% inside the metro rail carriage. We find that the percent exceedance for open modes (cycle, auto rickshaw, 2W, OW car, and OW bus) reduces non-linearly with increasing ambient concentration. The reduction is steeper at concentrations lower than 150 μg/m3 than at higher concentrations. After accounting for air inhalation rate and speed of travel, PM2.5 mass uptake per kilometer during cycling is 9 times of AC car, the mode with the lowest exposure. At current level of concentrations, an hour of cycling in Delhi during morning rush-hour period results in PM2.5 dose which is 40% higher than an entire-day dose in cities like Tokyo, London, and New York, where ambient concentrations range from 10 to 20 μg/m3.

Spatial variations in annual cycles of body-size spectra of planktonic ciliates and their environmental drivers in marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Xu, Henglong; Jiang, Yong; Xu, Guangjian

2016-11-15

Body-size spectra has proved to be a useful taxon-free resolution to summarize a community structure for bioassessment. The spatial variations in annual cycles of body-size spectra of planktonic ciliates and their environmental drivers were studied based on an annual dataset. Samples were biweekly collected at five stations in a bay of the Yellow Sea, northern China during a 1-year cycle. Based on a multivariate approach, the second-stage analysis, it was shown that the annual cycles of the body-size spectra were significantly different among five sampling stations. Correlation analysis demonstrated that the spatial variations in the body-size spectra were significantly related to changes of environmental conditions, especially dissolved nitrogen, alone or in combination with salinity and dissolve oxygen. Based on results, it is suggested that the nutrients may be the environmental drivers to shape the spatial variations in annual cycles of planktonic ciliates in terms of body-size spectra in marine ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual, semi-annual and ter-annual variations of gravity wave momentum flux in 13 years of SABER data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dan; Preusse, Peter; Ern, Manfred; Strube, Cornelia

2017-04-01

In this study, the variations at different time scales such as the annual cycle, the semiannual oscillation (SAO), the ter-annual cycle (about four monthly) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal mean GW amplitudes and GW momentum flux (GWMF) have been investigated using satellite observations from 2002-2014 and combining ECMWF high resolution data with the GORGRAT model. The global distribution (patterns) of spectral amplitudes of GW momentum flux in stratosphere and mesosphere (from 30 km to 90 km) show that the annual cycle is the most predominant variation, and then are SAO, ter-annual cycle and QBO. For annual components, two relatively isolated amplitude maxima appear in each hemisphere: a subtropical maximum is associated with convective sources in summer, a mid and high latitude maximum is associated with the polar vortex in winter. In the subtropics, GWs propagate upward obliquely to the higher latitudes. The winter maximum in the southern hemisphere has larger momentum flux than that one in the northern hemisphere. While on the SH the phase (i.e. time corresponding to the maximum GWMF) continuously descends with the maximum in July in the upper mesosphere and in September in the lower stratosphere, on the northern hemisphere, the phase has no visible altitude dependence with a maximum in December. For semiannual variations, in the MLT (70-80 km) region, there is an obvious enhancement of spectral amplitude at equatorial latitudes which relate to the dissipation of convectively forced GWs. The SAO in absolute momentum flux and the annual cycle in zonal momentum flux indicated that the variations at mid-latitudes (about from 30°-40°) are not a SAO signals but rather an annual cycle when the direction of GWMF is considered. The ter-annual cycle may be related to the duration of active convection in subtropical latitudes (from June to Sep. in north hemisphere) Indications for QBO are found latitude extension to mid-latitudes in stratosphere of both hemispheres and equatorial mesopause. Using these four dominant components of time scales and performing sinusoidal fits of GWMF we find that the patterns also at high latitudes are consistent with the range of 50°S to 50°N continuously covered by SABER.

Soil nitrogen cycling and nitrous oxide flux in a Rocky Mountain Douglas-fir forest - Effects of fertilization, irrigation and carbon addition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matson, Pamela A.; Gower, Stith T.; Volkmann, Carol; Billow, Christine; Grier, Charles C.

1992-01-01

Nitrous oxide fluxes and soil nitrogen transformations were measured in experimentally-treated high elevation Douglas-fir forests in northwestern New Mexico, USA. On an annual basis, forests that were fertilized with 200 kg N/ha emitted an average of 0.66 kg/ha of N2O-N, with highest fluxes occurring in July and August when soils were both warm and wet. Control, irrigated, and woodchip treated plots did not differ, and annual average fluxes ranged from 0.03 to 0.23 kg/ha. Annual net nitrogen mineralization and nitrate production were estimated in soil and forest floor using in situ incubations; fertilized soil mineralized 277 kg/ha/y in contrast to 18 kg/ha/y in control plots. Relative recovery of 15NH4-N applied to soil in laboratory incubations was principally in the form of NO3-N in the fertilized soils, while recovery was mostly in microbial biomass-N in the other treatments. Fertilization apparently added nitrogen that exceeded the heterotrophic microbial demand, resulting in higher rates of nitrate production and higher nitrous oxide fluxes. Despite the elevated nitrous oxide emission resulting from fertilization, we estimate that global inputs of nitrogen into forests are not currently contributing significantly to the increasing concentrations of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere.

The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdiyarso, Daniel; Purbopuspito, Joko; Kauffman, J. Boone; Warren, Matthew W.; Sasmito, Sigit D.; Donato, Daniel C.; Manuri, Solichin; Krisnawati, Haruni; Taberima, Sartji; Kurnianto, Sofyan

2015-12-01

Mangroves provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including nutrient cycling, soil formation, wood production, fish spawning grounds, ecotourism and carbon (C) storage. High rates of tree and plant growth, coupled with anaerobic, water-logged soils that slow decomposition, result in large long-term C storage. Given their global significance as large sinks of C, preventing mangrove loss would be an effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy. It has been reported that C stocks in the Indo-Pacific region contain on average 1,023 MgC ha-1 (ref. ). Here, we estimate that Indonesian mangrove C stocks are 1,083 +/- 378 MgC ha-1. Scaled up to the country-level mangrove extent of 2.9 Mha (ref. ), Indonesia’s mangroves contained on average 3.14 PgC. In three decades Indonesia has lost 40% of its mangroves, mainly as a result of aquaculture development. This has resulted in annual emissions of 0.07-0.21 Pg CO2e. Annual mangrove deforestation in Indonesia is only 6% of its total forest loss; however, if this were halted, total emissions would be reduced by an amount equal to 10-31% of estimated annual emissions from land-use sectors at present. Conservation of carbon-rich mangroves in the Indonesian archipelago should be a high-priority component of strategies to mitigate climate change.

On Diffusive Climatological Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffel, D. H.; Drazin, P. G.

1981-11-01

A simple, zonally and annually averaged, energy-balance climatological model with diffusive heat transport and nonlinear albedo feedback is solved numerically. Some parameters of the model are varied, one by one, to find the resultant effects on the steady solution representing the climate. In particular, the outward radiation flux, the insulation distribution and the albedo parameterization are varied. We have found an accurate yet simple analytic expression for the mean annual insolation as a function of latitude and the obliquity of the Earth's rotation axis; this has enabled us to consider the effects of the oscillation of the obliquity. We have used a continuous albedo function which fits the observed values; it considerably reduces the sensitivity of the model. Climatic cycles, calculated by solving the time-dependent equation when parameters change slowly and periodically, are compared qualitatively with paleoclimatic records.

Spatial and temporal patterns of dengue in Guangdong province of China.

PubMed

Wang, Chenggang; Yang, Weizhong; Fan, Jingchun; Wang, Furong; Jiang, Baofa; Liu, Qiyong

2015-03-01

The aim of the study was to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue in Guangdong for 1978 to 2010. Time series analysis was performed using data on annual dengue incidence in Guangdong province for 1978-2010. Annual average dengue incidences for each city were mapped for 4 periods by using the geographical information system (GIS). Hot spot analysis was used to identify spatial patterns of dengue cases for 2005-2010 by using the CrimeStat III software. The incidence of dengue in Guangdong province had fallen steadily from 1978 to 2010. The time series was a random sequence without regularity and with no fixed cycle. The geographic range of dengue fever had expanded from 1978 to 2010. Cases were mostly concentrated in Zhanjiang and the developed regions of Pearl River Delta and Shantou. © 2013 APJPH.

Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Ries, Leslie; Reeves, Rick; Regetz, James; Oberhauser, Karen S.

2012-01-01

Understanding the impacts of climate on migratory species is complicated by the fact that these species travel through several climates that may be changing in diverse ways throughout their complete migratory cycle. Most studies are not designed to tease out the direct and indirect effects of climate at various stages along the migration route. We assess the impacts of spring and summer climate conditions on breeding monarch butterflies, a species that completes its annual migration cycle over several generations. No single, broad-scale climate metric can explain summer breeding phenology or the substantial year-to-year fluctuations observed in population abundances. As such, we built a Poisson regression model to help explain annual arrival times and abundances in the Midwestern United States. We incorporated the climate conditions experienced both during a spring migration/breeding phase in Texas as well as during subsequent arrival and breeding during the main recruitment period in Ohio. Using data from a state-wide butterfly monitoring network in Ohio, our results suggest that climate acts in conflicting ways during the spring and summer seasons. High spring precipitation in Texas is associated with the largest annual population growth in Ohio and the earliest arrival to the summer breeding ground, as are intermediate spring temperatures in Texas. On the other hand, the timing of monarch arrivals to the summer breeding grounds is not affected by climate conditions within Ohio. Once in Ohio for summer breeding, precipitation has minimal impacts on overall abundances, whereas warmer summer temperatures are generally associated with the highest expected abundances, yet this effect is mitigated by the average seasonal temperature of each location in that the warmest sites receive no benefit of above average summer temperatures. Our results highlight the complex relationship between climate and performance for a migrating species and suggest that attempts to understand how monarchs will be affected by future climate conditions will be challenging.

Variable C : N : P stoichiometry of dissolved organic matter cycling in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Letscher, R. T.; Moore, J. K.; Teng, Y. -C.; ...

2014-06-16

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays an important role in the ocean's biological carbon pump by providing an advective/mixing pathway for ~ 20% of export production. DOM is known to have a stoichiometry depleted in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) compared to the particulate organic matter pool, a~fact that is often omitted from biogeochemical-ocean general circulation models. However the variable C : N : P stoichiometry of DOM becomes important when quantifying carbon export from the upper ocean and linking the nutrient cycles of N and P with that of carbon. Here we utilize recent advances in DOM observational data coveragemore » and offline tracer-modeling techniques to objectively constrain the variable production and remineralization rates of the DOM C / N / P pools in a simple biogeochemical-ocean model of DOM cycling. The optimized DOM cycling parameters are then incorporated within the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling (BEC) component of the Community Earth System Model and validated against the compilation of marine DOM observations. The optimized BEC simulation including variable DOM C : N : P cycling was found to better reproduce the observed DOM spatial gradients than simulations that used the canonical Redfield ratio. Global annual average export of dissolved organic C, N, and P below 100 m was found to be 2.28 Pg C yr -1 (143 Tmol C yr -1), 16.4 Tmol N yr -1, and 1 Tmol P yr -1, respectively with an average export C : N : P stoichiometry of 225 : 19 : 1 for the semilabile (degradable) DOM pool. DOC export contributed ~ 25% of the combined organic C export to depths greater than 100 m.« less

Variable C : N : P stoichiometry of dissolved organic matter cycling in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Letscher, R. T.; Moore, J. K.; Teng, Y. -C.; ...

2015-01-12

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays an important role in the ocean's biological carbon pump by providing an advective/mixing pathway for ~ 20% of export production. DOM is known to have a stoichiometry depleted in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) compared to the particulate organic matter pool, a fact that is often omitted from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models. However the variable C : N : P stoichiometry of DOM becomes important when quantifying carbon export from the upper ocean and linking the nutrient cycles of N and P with that of carbon. Here we utilize recent advances in DOM observationalmore » data coverage and offline tracer-modeling techniques to objectively constrain the variable production and remineralization rates of the DOM C : N : P pools in a simple biogeochemical-ocean model of DOM cycling. The optimized DOM cycling parameters are then incorporated within the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling (BEC) component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and validated against the compilation of marine DOM observations. The optimized BEC simulation including variable DOM C : N : P cycling was found to better reproduce the observed DOM spatial gradients than simulations that used the canonical Redfield ratio. Global annual average export of dissolved organic C, N, and P below 100 m was found to be 2.28 Pg C yr -1 (143 Tmol C yr -1, 16.4 Tmol N yr -1, and 1 Tmol P yr -1, respectively, with an average export C : N : P stoichiometry of 225 : 19 : 1 for the semilabile (degradable) DOM pool. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export contributed ~ 25% of the combined organic C export to depths greater than 100 m.« less

An international survey of the health economics of IVF and ICSI.

PubMed

Collins, JohnA

2002-01-01

The health economics of IVF and ICSI involve assessments of utilization, cost, cost-effectiveness and ability to pay. In 48 countries, utilization averaged 289 IVF/ICSI cycles per million of population per annum, ranging from two in Kazachstan, to 1657 in Israel. Higher national utilization of IVF/ICSI was associated with higher quality of health services, as indicated by lower infant mortality rates. IVF and ICSI are scientifically demanding and personnel-intensive, and are therefore expensive procedures. The average cost per IVF/ICSI cycle in 2002 would be US$9547 in the USA, and US$3518 in 25 other countries. Price elasticity estimates suggest that a 10% decrease in IVF/ICSI cost would generate a 30% increase in utilization. The average cost-effectiveness ratios in 2002 would be US$58,394 per live birth in the USA, and US$22,048 in other countries. In three randomized controlled trials, incremental costs per additional live birth with IVF compared with conventional therapy were US$ -26,586, $79,472 and $47,749. The national costs of IVF/ICSI treatment would be US$1.00 per capita in one current model, but the costs to individual couples range from 10% of annual household expenditures in European countries to 25% in Canada and the USA.

Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Runge, T.

2013-02-01

We study solar wind-ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) - 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10-22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008-2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008-2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 1010 W and 2.7 × 1010 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind-ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind-ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

Seasonal patterns in carbon dioxide in 15 mid-continent (USA) reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John R.; Obrecht, Daniel V.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Balmer, Michelle B.; Filstrup, Christopher T.; Downing, John A.

2016-01-01

Evidence suggests that lakes are important sites for atmospheric CO2 exchange and so play a substantial role in the global carbon budget. Previous research has 2 weaknesses: (1) most data have been collected only during the open-water or summer seasons, and (2) data are concentrated principally on natural lakes in northern latitudes. Here, we report on the full annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 exchanges of 15 oligotrophic to eutrophic reservoirs in the Glacial Till Plains of the United States. With one exception, these reservoirs showed an overall loss of CO2 during the year, with most values within the lower range reported for temperate lakes. There was a strong cross-system seasonal pattern: an average of 70% of total annual CO2 efflux occurred by the end of spring mixis; some 20% of annual flux was reabsorbed during summer stratification; and the remaining 50% of efflux was lost during autumnal mixing. Net annual flux was negatively correlated with depth and positively correlated with both water residence time and DOC, with the smallest annual CO2 efflux measured in shallow fertile impoundments. Strong correlations yield relationships allowing regional up-scaling of CO2 evasion. Understanding lacustrine CO2 uptake and evasion requires seasonal analyses across the full range of lake trophic states and morphometric attributes.

50 CFR 218.171 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...); (2) Northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus)—220 (an average of 44 annually); (3) California sea lion (Zalophus californianus)—570 (an average of 114 annually); (4) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—70 (an average of 14 annually); (5) Harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardsi) (Washington Inland...

The influence of north Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the west

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Peterson, David H.

1989-01-01

The annual cycle and nonseasonal variability of streamflow over western North America and Hawaii is studied in terms of atmospheric forcing elements. This study uses several decades of monthly average streamflow beginning as early as the late 1800's over a network of 38 stations. In addition to a strong annual cycle in mean streamflow and its variance at most of the stations, there is also a distinct annual cycle in the autocorrelation of anomalies that is related to the interplay between the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation. Of particular importance to these lag effects is the well-known role of water stored as snow pack, which controls the delay between peak precipitation and peak flow and also introduces persistence into the nonseasonal streamflow anomalies, with time scales from 1 month to over 1 year. The degree to which streamflow is related to winter atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific and western North America is tested using correlations with time averaged, gridded sea level pressure (SLP), which begins in 1899. Streamflow fluctuations show significant large-scale correlations for the winter (December through February) mean SLP anomaly patterns over the North Pacific with maximum correlations ranging from 0.3 to about 0.6. For streams along the west coast corridor the circulation pattern associated with positive streamflow anomalies is low pressure centered off the coast to the west or northwest, indicative of increased winter storms and an anomalous westerly-to-southwesterly wind component. For streams in the interior positive streamflow anomalies are associated with a positive SLP anomaly stationed remotely over the central North Pacific, and with negative but generally weaker SLP anomalies locally. One important influence on streamflow variability is the strength of the Aleutian Low in winter. This is represented by the familiar Pacific-North America (PNA) index and also by an index defined herein the “CNP” (Central North Pacific). This index, beginning in 1899, is taken to be the average of the SLP anomaly south of the Aleutians and the western Gulf of Alaska. Correlations between PNA or CNP and regional anomalies reflect streamflow the alternations in strength and position of the mean North Pacific storm track entering North America as well as shifts in the trade winds over the subtropical North Pacific. Regions whose streamflow is best tuned to the PNA or CNP include coastal Alaska, the northwestern United States, and Hawaii; the latter two regions have the opposite sign anomaly as the former. The pattern of streamflow variations associated with El Niño is similar, but the El Niño signal also includes a tendency for greater than normal streamflow in the southwestern United States. These indices are significantly correlated with streamflow at one to two seasons in advance of the December–August period, which may allow modestly skillful forecasts. It is important to note that streamflow variability in some areas, such as British Columbia and California, does not respond consistently to these broad scale Pacific atmospheric circulation indices, but is related to regional atmospheric anomaly features over the eastern North Pacific. Spatially, streamflow anomalies are fairly well correlated over scales of several hundred kilometers. Inspection of the spatial anomalies of stream-flow in this study suggest an asymmetry in the spatial pattern of positive versus negative streamflow anomalies in the western United States: dry patterns have tended to be larger and more spatially coherent than wet patterns.

Semiannual and annual variations in the height of the ionospheric F2-peak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rishbeth, H.; Sedgemore-Schulthess, K. J. F.; Ulich, T.

2000-03-01

Ionosonde data from sixteen stations are used to study the semiannual and annual variations in the height of the ionospheric F2-peak, hmF2. The semiannual variation, which peaks shortly after equinox, has an amplitude of about 8 km at an average level of solar activity (10.7 cm flux = 140 units), both at noon and midnight. The annual variation has an amplitude of about 11 km at northern midlatitudes, peaking in early summer; and is larger at southern stations, where it peaks in late summer. Both annual and semiannual amplitudes increase with increasing solar activity by day, but not at night. The semiannual variation in hmF2 is unrelated to the semiannual variation of the peak electron density NmF2, and is not reproduced by the CTIP and TIME-GCM computational models of the quiet-day thermosphere and ionosphere. The semiannual variation in hmF2 is approximately isobaric , in that its amplitude corresponds quite well to the semiannual variation in the height of fixed pressure-levels in the thermosphere, as represented by the MSIS empirical model. The annual variation is not isobaric . The annual mean of hmF2 increases with solar 10.7 cm flux, both by night and by day, on average by about 0.45 km/flux unit, rather smaller than the corresponding increase of height of constant pressure-levels in the MSIS model. The discrepancy may be due to solar-cycle variations of thermospheric winds. Although geomagnetic activity, which affects thermospheric density and temperature and therefore hmF2 also, is greatest at the equinoxes, this seems to account for less than half the semiannual variation of hmF2. The rest may be due to a semiannual variation of tidal and wave energy transmitted to the thermosphere from lower levels in the atmosphere.

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Variability during 2003-05 from GRACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zlotnicki, Victor; Wahr, John; Fukumori, Ichiro; Song, Yuhe T.

2006-01-01

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003 - November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling-assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cm(sub H2O) (1 cm(sub H2O) similar to 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cm(sub H2O) estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cm(sub H2O) (1.1 and 0.6 cm(sub H2O) with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv ( Sv equivalent to 10(exp 6) m(exp 3) s(exp -1)) of barotropic transport variability per cm(sub H2O) of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40 de - 65 deg S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Variability during 2003-05 from GRACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zlotnicki, Victor; Wahr, John; Fukumori, Ichiro; Song, Yuhe T.

2007-01-01

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003-November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling-assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cmH2O (1 cmH2O approx. 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cmH2O estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cmH2O (1.1 and 0.6 cmH2O with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv (Sv equiv 10(exp 6)cu m/s) of barotropic transport variability per cmH2O of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40(deg)- 65(deg)S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.

Hydrology and water quality of the headwaters of the River Severn: Stream acidity recovery and interactions with plantation forestry under an improving pollution climate.

PubMed

Neal, Colin; Robinson, Mark; Reynolds, Brian; Neal, Margaret; Rowland, Philip; Grant, Simon; Norris, David; Williams, Bronwen; Sleep, Darren; Lawlor, Alan

2010-10-01

This paper presents new information on the hydrology and water quality of the eroding peatland headwaters of the River Severn in mid-Wales and links it to the impact of plantation conifer forestry further down the catchment. The Upper Hafren is dominated by low-growing peatland vegetation, with an average annual precipitation of around 2650 mm with around 250 mm evaporation. With low catchment permeability, stream response to rainfall is "flashy" with the rising limb to peak stormflow typically under an hour. The water quality is characteristically "dilute"; stormflow is acidic and enriched in aluminium and iron from the acid organic soil inputs. Baseflow is circum-neutral and calcium and bicarbonate bearing due to the inputs of groundwater enriched from weathering of the underlying rocks. Annual cycling is observed for the nutrients reflecting uptake and decomposition processes linked to the vegetation and for arsenic implying seasonal water-logging within the peat soils and underlying glacial drift. Over the decadal scale, sulphate and nitrate concentrations have declined while Gran alkalinity, dissolved organic carbon and iron have increased, indicating a reduction in stream acidification. Within the forested areas the water quality is slightly more concentrated and acidic, transgressing the boundary for acid neutralisation capacity as a threshold for biological damage. Annual sulphate and aluminium concentrations are double those observed in the Upper Hafren, reflecting the influence of forestry and the greater ability of trees to scavenge pollutant inputs from gaseous and mist/cloud-water sources compared to short vegetation. Acidification is decreasing more rapidly in the forest compared to the eroding peatland possibly due to the progressive harvesting of the mature forest reducing the scavenging of acidifying inputs. For the Lower Hafren, long-term average annual precipitation is slightly lower, with lower average altitude, at around 2520mm and evaporation is around double that of the Upper Hafren. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alabama Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2009 and 2012 IECC as Compared to the 2006 IECC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-06-15

The 2009 and 2012 International Energy Conservation Codes (IECC) yield positive benefits for Alabama homeowners. Moving to either the 2009 or 2012 IECC from the 2006 IECC is cost effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Alabama homeowners will save $2,117 over 30 years under the 2009 IECC, with savings still higher at $6,182 with the 2012 IECC. After accounting for upfront costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceeding cumulative cash outlays) in 2 years for both the 2009 and 2012 IECC. Average annual energy savings aremore » $168 for the 2009 IECC and $462 for the 2012 IECC.« less

50 CFR 216.272 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... electra)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (S) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (T) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (U) Killer whale... percent of the number of takes indicated below): (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera...

50 CFR 217.142 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... method and amount of take: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Cetaceans: (A) Bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus)—75 (an average of 15 annually) (B) Gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus)—10 (an average of 2 annually) (C) Beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Ringed...

Historical Changes in Precipitation and Streamflow in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin, 1915-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Aichele, Stephen S.

2007-01-01

The total amount of water in the Great Lakes Basin is important in the long-term allocation of water to human use and to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. The water available during low-flow periods is particularly important because the short-term demands for the water can exceed the supply. Precipitation increased over the last 90 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Total annual precipitation increased by 4.5 inches from 1915 to 2004 (based on the average of 34 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations), 3.5 inches from 1935 to 2004 (average of 34 stations), and 4.2 inches from 1955 to 2004 (average of 37 stations). Variability in precipitation from year to year was large, but there were numerous years with relatively low precipitation in the 1930s and 1960s and many years with relatively high precipitation after about 1970. Annual runoff increased over the last 50 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Mean annual runoff increased by 2.6 inches, based on the average of 43 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations from 1955 to 2004 on streams that were relatively free of human influences. Variability in runoff from year to year was large, but on average runoff was relatively low from 1955 to about 1970 and relatively high from about 1970 to 1995. Runoff increased at all stations in the basin except in and near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where relatively small runoff decreases occurred. Changes in annual runoff for the 16 stations with data from 1935 to 2004 were similar to the changes from 1955 to 2004. The mean annual 7-day low runoff (the lowest annual average of 7 consecutive days of runoff) increased from 1955 to 2004 by 0.048 cubic feet per second per square mile based on the average of 27 stations. Runoff in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin from 1955 to 2004 increased for all months except April. November through January and July precipitation and runoff increased by similar amounts. There were differences between precipitation and runoff changes for February, March, and April, which were likely due to lower ratios of snowfall to rain and earlier snowmelt runoff in recent years. Increases in precipitation were larger than increases in runoff for May, June, August, September, and October. Some of this difference could be due to the different locations of the precipitation and streamflow stations in the basin. Part of the difference may be explained by changes in evapotranspiration. Some of the few highly urbanized and highly regulated stations analyzed in this report had larger increases in annual 7-day low-runoff from 1955 to 2004 than any of the stations in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin that are on streams relatively free of human influences. This demonstrates the human influence over time on very low streamflows. Changes-even over periods as long as 90 years-can be part of longer cycles. Previous studies of Great Lakes Basin precipitation and St. Lawrence River streamflow, using data from the mid-1800s to the late-1900s, showed low precipitation and streamflow in the late 1800s and early 1900s relative to earlier and later periods.

Alluvial groundwater recharge estimation in semi-arid environment using remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, Victor Hugo R.; Montenegro, Suzana; Almeida, Cristiano N.; Silva, Bernardo B.; Oliveira, Leidjane M.; Gusmão, Ana Cláudia V.; Freitas, Emerson S.; Montenegro, Abelardo A. A.

2017-05-01

Data limitations on groundwater (GW) recharge over large areas are still a challenge for efficient water resource management, especially in semi-arid regions. Thus, this study seeks to integrate hydrological cycle variables from satellite imagery to estimate the spatial distribution of GW recharge in the Ipanema river basin (IRB), which is located in the State of Pernambuco in Northeast Brazil. Remote sensing data, including monthly maps (2011-2012) of rainfall, runoff and evapotranspiration, are used as input for the water balance method within Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Rainfall data are derived from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Version 7 (3B43V7) product and present the same monthly average temporal distributions from 15 rain gauges that are distributed over the study area (r = 0.93 and MAE = 12.7 mm), with annual average estimates of 894.3 (2011) and 300.7 mm (2012). The runoff from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) method, which is based on regional soil information and Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor image, represents 29% of the TMPA rainfall that was observed across two years of study. Actual evapotranspiration data, which were provided by the SEBAL application of MODIS images, present annual averages of 1213 (2011) and 1067 (2012) mm. The water balance results reveal a large inter-annual difference in the IRB GW recharge, which is characterized by different rainfall regimes, with averages of 30.4 (2011) and 4.7 (2012) mm year-1. These recharges were mainly observed between January and July in regions with alluvial sediments and highly permeable soils. The GW recharge approach with remote sensing is compared to the WTF (Water Table Fluctuation) method, which is used in an area of alluvium in the IRB. The estimates from these two methods exhibit reliable annual agreement, with average values of 154.6 (WTF) and 124.6 (water balance) mm in 2011. These values correspond to 14.89 and 13.53% of the rainfall that was recorded at the rain gauges and the TMPA, respectively. Only the WTF method indicates a very low recharge of 15.9 mm for the second year. The values in this paper provide reliable insight regarding the use of remotely sensed data to evaluate the rates of alluvial GW recharge in regions where the potential runoff cannot be disregarded from WB equation and must be calculated spatially.

Thermal structure of the TTL and its relation to stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of water.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre Juárez, M.; Ao, C. O.; Schr\\O der, T. M.; Hermann, R.

2004-12-01

The annual cycle of the TTL fine scale thermal structure is described as captured by GPS radio occultation and the pressure levels of the ECMWF weather analysis. This annual cycle is compared to the annual cycle in water concentrations at the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere measured by HALOE. It is found that the saturation mixing ratios at the Cold Point Tropopause temperatures are consistent and sligthly below HALOE values with some temporal lag. This suggests that if dehydration mechanisms other than those associated with slow vertical asscent are working effectively, they must be counterbalanced by other hydration mechanisms. A comparison between saturation mixing ratios at the temperatures captured by GPS radio occultation and HALOE concentrations of water vapor show an annual cycle dominated by supersaturation in the boreal winter months, when the upward mass fluxes are larger, and subsaturation in the summer. The longitudinal dependence of these cycles is discussed and so is its possible implication for the seasonality of statospheric-tropospheric exchange of water.

Surface deformations as indicators of deep ebullition fluxes in a large northern peatland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glaser, P.H.; Chanton, J.P.; Morin, P.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Siegel, D.I.; Ruud, O.; Chasar, L.I.; Reeve, A.S.

2004-01-01

Peatlands deform elastically during precipitation cycles by small (??3 cm) oscillations in surface elevation. In contrast, we used a Global Positioning System network to measure larger oscillations that exceeded 20 cm over periods of 4-12 hours during two seasonal droughts at a bog and fen site in northern Minnesota. The second summer drought also triggered 19 depressuring cycles in an overpressured stratum under the bog site. The synchronicity between the largest surface deformations and the depressuring cycles indicates that both phenomena are produced by the episodic release of large volumes of gas from deep semi-elastic compartments confined by dense wood layers. We calculate that the three largest surface deformations were associated with the release of 136 g CH4 m-2, which exceeds by an order of magnitude the annual average chamber fluxes measured at this site. Ebullition of gas from the deep peat may therefore be a large and previously unrecognized source of radiocarbon depleted methane emissions from northern peatlands. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Seasonal dynamics in community structure, abundance, body size and sex ratio in two species of Neotropical annual fishes.

PubMed

Lanés, L E K; Godoy, R S; Maltchik, L; Polačik, M; Blažek, R; Vrtílek, M; Reichard, M

2016-11-01

Seven ephemeral pools on the coastal plain of southern Brazil were found to be inhabited by three annual and 22 non-annual fish species. Two common annual species (Austrolebias minuano and Cynopoecilus fulgens) exhibited clear seasonal dynamics, with the appearance of young fishes in the austral autumn (May to June) and a decline in abundance over the seasonal cycle. The third annual species, Austrolebias wolterstorffii, was rare. No seasonal dynamics were observed in non-annual fishes. The relative abundance of non-annual fishes compared with annual fishes increased over the seasonal cycle, but they coexisted widely. The size structure of annual fishes suggested the presence of a single age cohort in most pools though a second age cohort was registered in one pool in August, coinciding with a large flooding. Strong sexual dimorphism in body size was found in C. fulgens throughout the seasonal cycle, while no sexual dimorphism in body size was found in A. minuano. Female-biased sex ratios were recorded in both common annual fish species in the last three sampling dates (in spring), but not during the first two sampling dates (in winter). The natural lifespan of annual fishes was <8 months. Annual fishes disappeared before habitat desiccation in half of the pools, while non-annual fishes were still present. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Groundwater and surface water scaling over the continental US using a hyperresolution, integrated hydrologic model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, A. J.; Moore, S. M.; Sampson, K. M.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.

2014-12-01

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.

Response of nitric and nitrous oxide fluxes to N fertilizer application in greenhouse vegetable cropping systems in southeast China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yaojun; Lin, Feng; Jin, Yaguo; Wang, Xiaofei; Liu, Shuwei; Zou, Jianwen

2016-01-01

It is of great concern worldwide that active nitrogenous gases in the global nitrogen cycle contribute to regional and global-scale environmental issues. Nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) are generally interrelated in soil nitrogen biogeochemical cycles, while few studies have simultaneously examined these two gases emission from typical croplands. Field experiments were conducted to measure N2O and NO fluxes in response to chemical N fertilizer application in annual greenhouse vegetable cropping systems in southeast China. Annual N2O and NO fluxes averaged 52.05 and 14.87 μg N m−2 h−1 for the controls without N fertilizer inputs, respectively. Both N2O and NO emissions linearly increased with N fertilizer application. The emission factors of N fertilizer for N2O and NO were estimated to be 1.43% and 1.15%, with an annual background emission of 5.07 kg N2O-N ha−1 and 1.58 kg NO-N ha−1, respectively. The NO-N/N2O-N ratio was significantly affected by cropping type and fertilizer application, and NO would exceed N2O emissions when soil moisture is below 54% WFPS. Overall, local conventional input rate of chemical N fertilizer could be partially reduced to attain high yield of vegetable and low N2O and NO emissions in greenhouse vegetable cropping systems in China. PMID:26848094

Implementing and Evaluating Variable Soil Thickness in the Community Land Model, Version 4.5 (CLM4.5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunke, Michael A.; Broxton, Patrick; Pelletier, Jon

2016-05-01

One of the recognized weaknesses of land surface models as used in weather and climate models is the assumption of constant soil thickness due to the lack of global estimates of bedrock depth. Using a 30 arcsecond global dataset for the thickness of relatively porous, unconsolidated sediments over bedrock, spatial variation in soil thickness is included here in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). The number of soil layers for each grid cell is determined from the average soil depth for each 0.9° latitude x 1.25° longitude grid cell. Including variable soil thickness affects the simulations most inmore » regions with shallow bedrock corresponding predominantly to areas of mountainous terrain. The greatest changes are to baseflow, with the annual minimum generally occurring earlier, while smaller changes are seen in surface fluxes like latent heat flux and surface runoff in which only the annual cycle amplitude is increased. These changes are tied to soil moisture changes which are most substantial in locations with shallow bedrock. Total water storage (TWS) anomalies do not change much over most river basins around the globe, since most basins contain mostly deep soils. However, it was found that TWS anomalies substantially differ for a river basin with more mountainous terrain. Additionally, the annual cycle in soil temperature are affected by including realistic soil thicknesses due to changes to heat capacity and thermal conductivity.« less

Response of nitric and nitrous oxide fluxes to N fertilizer application in greenhouse vegetable cropping systems in southeast China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yaojun; Lin, Feng; Jin, Yaguo; Wang, Xiaofei; Liu, Shuwei; Zou, Jianwen

2016-02-05

It is of great concern worldwide that active nitrogenous gases in the global nitrogen cycle contribute to regional and global-scale environmental issues. Nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) are generally interrelated in soil nitrogen biogeochemical cycles, while few studies have simultaneously examined these two gases emission from typical croplands. Field experiments were conducted to measure N2O and NO fluxes in response to chemical N fertilizer application in annual greenhouse vegetable cropping systems in southeast China. Annual N2O and NO fluxes averaged 52.05 and 14.87 μg N m(-2) h(-1) for the controls without N fertilizer inputs, respectively. Both N2O and NO emissions linearly increased with N fertilizer application. The emission factors of N fertilizer for N2O and NO were estimated to be 1.43% and 1.15%, with an annual background emission of 5.07 kg N2O-N ha(-1) and 1.58 kg NO-N ha(-1), respectively. The NO-N/N2O-N ratio was significantly affected by cropping type and fertilizer application, and NO would exceed N2O emissions when soil moisture is below 54% WFPS. Overall, local conventional input rate of chemical N fertilizer could be partially reduced to attain high yield of vegetable and low N2O and NO emissions in greenhouse vegetable cropping systems in China.

Climate Prediction Center global monthly soil moisture data set at 0.5° resolution for 1948 to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Yun; van den Dool, Huug

2004-05-01

We have produced a 0.5° × 0.5° monthly global soil moisture data set for the period from 1948 to the present. The land model is a one-layer "bucket" water balance model, while the driving input fields are Climate Prediction Center monthly global precipitation over land, which uses over 17,000 gauges worldwide, and monthly global temperature from global Reanalysis. The output consists of global monthly soil moisture, evaporation, and runoff, starting from January 1948. A distinguishing feature of this data set is that all fields are updated monthly, which greatly enhances utility for near-real-time purposes. Data validation shows that the land model does well; both the simulated annual cycle and interannual variability of soil moisture are reasonably good against the limited observations in different regions. A data analysis reveals that, on average, the land surface water balance components have a stronger annual cycle in the Southern Hemisphere than those in the Northern Hemisphere. From the point of view of soil moisture, climates can be characterized into two types, monsoonal and midlatitude climates, with the monsoonal ones covering most of the low-latitude land areas and showing a more prominent annual variation. A global soil moisture empirical orthogonal function analysis and time series of hemisphere means reveal some interesting patterns (like El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and long-term trends in both regional and global scales.

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.2 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—10 (an average of 2 annually); and (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually). (ii) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (B) Pygmy or dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an...

50 CFR 218.2 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—10 (an average of 2 annually); and (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually). (ii) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (B) Pygmy or dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an...

50 CFR 218.2 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—10 (an average of 2 annually); and (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually). (ii) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (B) Pygmy or dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an...

Trends in summer bottom-water temperatures on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf from 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Turner, R Eugene; Rabalais, Nancy N; Justić, Dubravko

2017-01-01

We quantified trends in the 1985 to 2015 summer bottom-water temperature on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) continental shelf for data collected at 88 stations with depths ranging from 3 to 63 m. The analysis was supplemented with monthly data collected from 1963 to 1965 in the same area. The seasonal summer peak in average bottom-water temperature varied concurrently with air temperature, but with a 2- to 5-month lag. The summer bottom-water temperature declined gradually with depth from 30 oC at stations closest to the shore, to 20 oC at the offshore edge of the study area, and increased an average 0.051 oC y-1 between1963 and 2015. The bottom-water warming in summer for all stations was 1.9 times faster compared to the rise in local summer air temperatures, and 6.4 times faster than the concurrent increase in annual global ocean sea surface temperatures. The annual rise in average summer bottom-water temperatures on the subtropical nGOM continental shelf is comparable to the few published temperature trend estimates from colder environments. These recent changes in the heat storage on the nGOM continental shelf will affect oxygen and carbon cycling, spatial distribution of fish and shrimp, and overall species diversity.

Marginal costs of water savings from cooling system retrofits: a case study for Texas power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loew, Aviva; Jaramillo, Paulina; Zhai, Haibo

2016-10-01

The water demands of power plant cooling systems may strain water supply and make power generation vulnerable to water scarcity. Cooling systems range in their rates of water use, capital investment, and annual costs. Using Texas as a case study, we examined the cost of retrofitting existing coal and natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plants with alternative cooling systems, either wet recirculating towers or air-cooled condensers for dry cooling. We applied a power plant assessment tool to model existing power plants in terms of their key plant attributes and site-specific meteorological conditions and then estimated operation characteristics of retrofitted plants and retrofit costs. We determined the anticipated annual reductions in water withdrawals and the cost-per-gallon of water saved by retrofits in both deterministic and probabilistic forms. The results demonstrate that replacing once-through cooling at coal-fired power plants with wet recirculating towers has the lowest cost per reduced water withdrawals, on average. The average marginal cost of water withdrawal savings for dry-cooling retrofits at coal-fired plants is approximately 0.68 cents per gallon, while the marginal recirculating retrofit cost is 0.008 cents per gallon. For NGCC plants, the average marginal costs of water withdrawal savings for dry-cooling and recirculating towers are 1.78 and 0.037 cents per gallon, respectively.

Soil nitrogen cycling and nitrous oxide flux in a Rocky Mountain Douglas-fir forest - Effects of fertilization, irrigation and carbon addition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matson, Pamela A.; Gower, Stith T.; Volkmann, Carol; Billow, Christine; Grier, Charles C.

1992-01-01

Nitrous oxide fluxes and soil nitrogen transformations were measured in experimentally-treated high elevation Douglas-fir forests in northwestern New Mexico. On an annual basis, forests that were fertilized with 200 kg N/ha emitted an average of 0.66 kg/ha of N2O-N, with highest fluxes occurring in July and August when soils were both warm and wet. Control, irrigated, and woodchip treated plots were not different from each other, and annual average fluxes ranged from 0.03 to 0.23 kg/ha. Fertilized soil mineralized 277 kg/ha per year in contrast to 18 kg/ha per year in control plots. Relative recovery of (N-15)H4-N applied to soil in laboratory incubations was principally in the form of NO3-N in the fertilized soils, while recovery was mostly in microbial biomass-N in the other treatments. Fertilization apparently added nitrogen that exceeded the heterotrophic microbial demand, resulting in higher rates of nitrate production and higher nitrous oxide fluxes. Global inputs of nitrogen into forests are not currently contributing significantly to the increasing concentrations of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2008-01-01

Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize the probable levels of atrazine for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks. Sites with a high probability of exceeding a benchmark for human health or aquatic life can be prioritized for monitoring.

Isotope evidence of paleo - El Nino - Southern Oscillation cycles in loess-paleosol record in the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Hongfang; Follmer, L.R.; Chao-li, Liu

2000-01-01

The ??13C of soil carbonate in rhizoconcretions collected from a loess-paleosol sequence in the central United States indicates that growing-season C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated by 35% on a 900 ?? 200 yr time scale during the late Wisconsinan glaciation. The pattern appears in phase with advance and retreat of the southern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet, suggesting influence by paleo-El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation cycles. The ??13C of soil organic matter indicates that the annual average C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated only by 18%, with a periodicity of 450 ?? 100 yr, and closely matched the cyclic pattern of loess-paleosol layers. It suggests a periodic enhancement of the penetration of the Gulf of Mexico air over the region during this time.

Estimation of average annual streamflows and power potentials for Alaska and Hawaii

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verdin, Kristine L.

2004-05-01

This paper describes the work done to develop average annual streamflow estimates and power potential for the states of Alaska and Hawaii. The Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used, along with climatic datasets, to develop flow and power estimates for every stream reach in the EDNA database. Estimates of average annual streamflows were derived using state-specific regression equations, which were functions of average annual precipitation, precipitation intensity, drainage area, and other elevation-derived parameters. Power potential was calculated through the use of the average annual streamflow and the hydraulic head of each reach, which is calculated from themore » EDNA digital elevation model. In all, estimates of streamflow and power potential were calculated for over 170,000 stream segments in the Alaskan and Hawaiian datasets.« less

Dynamical diagnostics of the SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific: part I a linear coupled framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ying-Ying; Jin, Fei-Fei

2018-03-01

The eastern equatorial Pacific has a pronounced westward propagating SST annual cycle resulting from ocean-atmosphere interactions with equatorial semiannual solar forcing and off-equatorial annual solar forcing conveyed to the equator. In this two-part paper, a simple linear coupled framework is proposed to quantify the internal dynamics and external forcing for a better understanding of the linear part of the dynamics annual cycle. It is shown that an essential internal dynamical factor is the SST damping rate which measures the coupled stability in a similar way as the Bjerknes instability index for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It comprises three major negative terms (dynamic damping due to the Ekman pumping feedback, mean circulation advection, and thermodynamic feedback) and two positive terms (thermocline feedback and zonal advection). Another dynamical factor is the westward-propagation speed that is mainly determined by the thermodynamic feedback, the Ekman pumping feedback, and the mean circulation. The external forcing is measured by the annual and semiannual forcing factors. These linear internal and external factors, which can be estimated from data, determine the amplitude of the annual cycle.

Looking beyond fertilizer: Assessing the contribution of nitrogen from hydrologic inputs and organic matter to plant growth in the cranberry agroecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stackpoole, S.M.; Kosola, K.R.; Workmaster, B.A.A.; Guldan, N.M.; Browne, B.A.; Jackson, R. D.

2011-01-01

Even though nitrogen (N) is a key nutrient for successful cranberry production, N cycling in cranberry agroecosystems is not completely understood. Prior research has focused mainly on timing and uptake of ammonium fertilizer, but the objective of our study was to evaluate the potential for additional N contributions from hydrologic inputs (flooding, irrigation, groundwater, and precipitation) and organic matter (OM). Plant biomass, soil, surface and groundwater samples were collected from five cranberry beds (cranberry production fields) on four different farms, representing both upland and lowland systems. Estimated average annual plant uptake (63.3 ?? 22.5 kg N ha-1 year-1) exceeded total average annual fertilizer inputs (39.5 ?? 11.6 kg N ha-1 year-1). Irrigation, precipitation, and floodwater N summed to an average 23 ?? 0.7 kg N ha-1 year-1, which was about 60% of fertilizer N. Leaf and stem litterfall added 5.2 ?? 1.2 and 24.1 ?? 3.0 kg N ha-1 year-1 respectively. The estimated net N mineralization rate from the buried bag technique was 5 ?? 0.2 kg N ha-1 year-1, which was nearly 15% of fertilizer N. Dissolved organic nitrogen represented a significant portion of the total N pool in both surface water and soil samples. Mixed-ion exchange resin core incubations indicated that 80% of total inorganic N from fertilizer, irrigation, precipitation, and mineralization was nitrate, and approximately 70% of recovered inorganic N from groundwater was nitrate. There was a weak but significant negative relationship between extractable soil ammonium concentrations and ericoid mycorrhizal colonization (ERM) rates (r = -0.22, P < 0.045). Growers may benefit from balancing the N inputs from hydrologic sources and OM relative to fertilizer N in order to maximize the benefits of ERM fungi in actively mediating N cycling in cranberry agroecosystems. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Eating disorders, menstrual dysfunction, weight change and DMPA use predict bone density change in college-aged women.

PubMed

Nieves, Jeri W; Ruffing, Jamie A; Zion, Marsha; Tendy, Susan; Yavorek, Trudy; Lindsay, Robert; Cosman, Felicia

2016-03-01

There are limited longitudinal studies that have evaluated bone mineral density (BMD) changes in college-aged women. Our objective was to simultaneously evaluate factors influencing 4-year BMD change. This was a longitudinal cohort study of healthy, physically active women in the US Military Academy (n=91; average age=18.4years). Assessments over four years included: height, weight, calcium intake, physical fitness, menstrual function (annual number cycles), oral contraceptives (OCs) or depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) use, and eating disorder behavior (Eating Disorder Inventory; (EDI)). BMD was measured annually at the lumbar spine and total hip by dual X-ray absorptiometry and calcaneal BMD by PIXI. Slope of 4year BMD change at each skeletal site (spine total hip and calcaneus) was calculated for each woman. BMD gains occurred at the spine in 50% and the hip in 36% of women. In unadjusted analyses, spine bone gain was positively related to menstrual cycle frequency (p=0.04). Spine and hip BMD loss occurred in those using DMPA (p<0.01) and those with the highest EDI quartile scores (p<0.05). BMD change was unrelated to OC use. Hip and calcaneus BMD decreased with weight loss (average 4.8+2.2lb/year) as compared to those with stable weight/weight gain (p<0.05). In multivariable analysis, spine BMD increase was significantly related to African American (AA) race, normal EDI score and normal menses. Hip BMD increase was related to AA race, weight increase and normal menses. DMPA use was associated with spine, hip, and calcaneus bone loss. On average, BMD may modestly increase in college-aged women, in the absence of risk factors. However, risk factors including subclinical eating disorders, weight loss, menstrual dysfunction and DMPA use can have significant detrimental effects on BMD in young healthy physically active women. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Monthly Averaged Variability of TOA Fluxes from CERES using EBAF, ERBE-like and FLASHFlux Data From 2001 to Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stackhouse, Paul; Wong, Takmeng; Kratz, David; Gupta, Shashi; Wiber, Anne; Edwards, Anne

2010-05-01

The FLASHFlux (Fast Longwave and Shortwave radiative Fluxes from CERES and MODIS) project derives daily averaged gridded top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative fluxes within one week of observation. Production of CERES based TOA and surface fluxes is achieved by using the latest CERES calibration that is assumed constant in time and by making simplifying assumptions in the computation of time and space averaged quantities. Together these assumptions result in approximately a 1% increase in the uncertainty for FLASHFlux products over CERES. Analysis has clearly demonstrated that the global-annual mean outgoing longwave radiation shows a decrease of ~0.75 Wm-2, from 2007 to 2008, while the global-annual mean reflected shortwave radiation shows a decrease of 0.14 Wm-2 over that same period. Thus, the combined longwave and shortwave changes have resulted in an increase of ~0.89 Wm-2 in net radiation into the Earth climate system in 2008. A time series of TOA fluxes was constructed from CERES EBAF, CERES ERBE-like and FLASHFLUX. Relative to this multi-dataset average from 2001 to 2008, the 2008 global-annual mean anomalies are -0.54/-0.26/+0.80 Wm-2, respectively, for the longwave/shortwave/net radiation. These flux values, which were published in the NOAA 2008 State of the Climate Report, are within their corresponding 2-sigma interannual variabilities for this period. This paper extends these results through 2009, where the net flux is observed to recover. The TOA LW variability is also compared to AIRS OLR showing excellent agreement in the anomalies. The variability appears very well correlated to the to the 2007-2009 La Nina/El Nino cycles, which altered the global distribution of clouds, total column water vapor and temperature. Reassessments of these results are expected when newer Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data are released.

Seasonal Variation of High-latitude Geomagnetic Activity Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

The coupling of the solar wind and auroral region has been examined by using westward electrojet indices since 1966 - 2014. We have studied the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years for solar cycles 20 - 24. The classical two-equinox activity pattern in geomagnetic activity was seen in multi-year averages but it was found in less than one third of the years examined. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. We identified the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966 - 2014) and IL (1995 - 2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in 2/3 and at either solstice in 1/3 of the years examined. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. An exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Temporal variation and trends of inorganic nutrients in the coastal upwelling of the NW Spain (Atlantic Galician rías)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doval, M. D.; López, A.; Madriñán, M.

2016-02-01

The temporal variability of inorganic nutrients (nitrate, nitrite, ammonium, phosphate and silicate) in five coastal upwelling Galician rías (Ría de Vigo, Ría de Pontevedra, Ría de Arousa, Ría de Muros and Ría de Ares-Betanzos) was assessed by considering biweekly values at 10 oceanographic stations for the decade 2002-2011. The long trends (1993-2011) of biweekly and annual average series for one station (mouth of Ría de Arousa, A0) were compared with decadal trends. A marked seasonal variability in all surface inorganic nutrients was observed. The average of the ten annual cycles (2002-2011) of each variable was calculated in order to obtain the average seasonal cycles. Maximum surface values occurred from the end of October to the end of February (8-24 μmol L- 1 dissolved inorganic nitrogen, 5-22 μmol L- 1 silicate and 0.5-1.8 μmol L- 1 phosphate). Minimum surface values (0.9-3.0 μmol L- 1 dissolved inorganic nitrogen, 0.6-2.5 μmol L- 1 silicate and 0.15-0.6 μmol L- 1 phosphate) detected from the beginning of May to the end of September. The highest nutrient concentrations (> 35%) recorded in the inner stations (V3, P3, A3, M2 and L3), as compared to the outer stations (V5, P4, A0, M5 and L1), indicated a more estuarine behaviour of these areas. Trends of the deseasonalised nutrient data were highly dependent on factors as length of the series, the initial year and the time integration period considered. The results found for these trends should be taken with caution due to the change in the sign of the slopes and the moderate accuracy of the models. Considering the variables whose trends did not change sign, ammonium and silicate showed a slightly positive trend for the biweekly-averaged series in A0 station during the periods 2002-2011 and 1993-2011.

39 CFR 3010.21 - Calculation of annual limitation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... notice of rate adjustment and dividing the sum by 12 (Recent Average). Then, a second simple average CPI... Recent Average and dividing the sum by 12 (Base Average). Finally, the annual limitation is calculated by dividing the Recent Average by the Base Average and subtracting 1 from the quotient. The result is...

39 CFR 3010.21 - Calculation of annual limitation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... notice of rate adjustment and dividing the sum by 12 (Recent Average). Then, a second simple average CPI... Recent Average and dividing the sum by 12 (Base Average). Finally, the annual limitation is calculated by dividing the Recent Average by the Base Average and subtracting 1 from the quotient. The result is...

39 CFR 3010.21 - Calculation of annual limitation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... notice of rate adjustment and dividing the sum by 12 (Recent Average). Then, a second simple average CPI... Recent Average and dividing the sum by 12 (Base Average). Finally, the annual limitation is calculated by dividing the Recent Average by the Base Average and subtracting 1 from the quotient. The result is...

A Comparison of Wolf's Reconstructed Record of Annual Sunspot Number with Schwabe's Observed Record of 'Clusters of Spots' for the Interval of 1826-1868

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1997-01-01

On the basis of a comparison of Wolf s reconstructed record of yearly averages of sunspot number against Schwabe's observations of yearly counts of 'clusters of spots' (i.e., the yearly number of newly appearing sunspot groups) during the interval of 1826-1868, one infers that Wolf probably misplaced and underestimated the maximum amplitude for cycle 7. In particular, Schwabe's data suggest that the maximum amplitude for cycle 7 occurred in 1828 rather than in 1830 and that it measured about 86.3 (+/-13.9; i.e., the 90% confidence level) rather than 70.4. If true, then, the ascent and descent durations for cycle 7 should be 5 years each instead of 7 and 3 years, respectively. Likewise, on the basis of the same comparison, one infers that the maximums for cycles 8 and 9, occurring, respectively, in 1837 and 1848, were of comparable size (approximately 130), although, quite possibly, the one for cycle 8 may have been smaller. Lastly, presuming the continued action of the 'odd-even' effect (i.e., the odd-numbered following cycle of Hale even-odd cycle pairs having a maximum amplitude that is of comparable or larger size than the even-numbered leading cycle) during the earlier pre-modem era of cycles 6-9, one infers that Wolf's estimate for the size of cycle 6 probably is too low.

Spatio-temporal variability of lake CH4 fluxes and its influence on annual estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natchimuthu, S.; Sundgren, I.; Gålfalk, M.; Klemedtsson, L.; Crill, P. M.; Danielsson, Å.; Bastviken, D.

2014-12-01

Lakes are major sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere and it has been shown that lakes contribute significantly to the global CH4 budget. However, the data behind these global estimates are snapshots in time and space only and they typically lack information on spatial and temporal variability of fluxes which can potentially lead to biased estimates. Recent studies have shown that diffusive flux, gas exchange velocity (k), ebullition and concentration of CH4 in the surface water can vary significantly in space within lakes. CH4 fluxes can also change at a broad range of temporal scales in response to seasons, temperature, lake mixing events, short term weather events like pressure variations, shifting winds and diel cycles. We sampled CH4 fluxes and surface water concentrations from three lakes of differing characteristics in southwest Sweden over two annual cycles, approximately every 14 days from April to October 2012 and from April to November 2013. CH4 fluxes were measured using floating chambers distributed in the lakes based on depth categories and dissolved CH4 concentrations were determined by a headspace equilibration method. We observed significant differences in CH4 concentration, diffusion, ebullition and total fluxes between and within the lakes. The fluxes increased exponentially with temperature in all three lakes and water temperature, for example, explained 53-78% of variations in total fluxes in the lakes. Based on our data which relied on improved spatial and temporal information, we demonstrate that measurements which do not take into account of the spatial variability in the lakes could substantially bias the whole lake estimates. For instance, in one of the lakes, measurements from the central parts of the lake represented only 58% of our estimates from all chambers on an average. In addition, we consider how intensive sampling in one season of the year may affect the annual estimates due to the complex interaction of temperature, air pressure and lake mixing events on CH4 fluxes. For example, samples collected when the average air temperatures during chamber deployments were above 15 °C overestimated the total fluxes by 17-157% in all lakes when compared to averages from all measurement times.

Simulation of ground-water flow and evaluation of water-management alternatives in the Assabet River Basin, Eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.

2004-01-01

Water-supply withdrawals and wastewater disposal in the Assabet River Basin in eastern Massachusetts alter the flow and water quality in the basin. Wastewater discharges and stream-flow depletion from ground-water withdrawals adversely affect water quality in the Assabet River, especially during low-flow months (late summer) and in headwater areas. Streamflow depletion also contributes to loss of aquatic habitat in tributaries to the river. In 19972001, water-supply withdrawals averaged 9.9 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Wastewater discharges to the Assabet River averaged 11 Mgal/d and included about 5.4 Mgal/d that originated from sources outside of the basin. The effects of current (2004) and future withdrawals and discharges on water resources in the basin were investigated in this study. Steady-state and transient ground-water-flow models were developed, by using MODFLOW-2000, to simulate flow in the surficial glacial deposits and underlying crystalline bedrock in the basin. The transient model simulated the average annual cycle at dynamic equilibrium in monthly intervals. The models were calibrated to 19972001 conditions of water withdrawals, wastewater discharges, water levels, and nonstorm streamflow (base flow plus wastewater discharges). Total flow through the simulated hydrologic system averaged 195 Mgal/d annually. Recharge from precipitation and ground-water discharge to streams were the dominant inflow and outflow, respectively. Evapotranspiration of ground water from wetlands and non-wetland areas also were important losses from the hydrologic system. Water-supply withdrawals and infiltration to sewers averaged 5 and 1.3 percent, respectively, of total annual out-flows and were larger components (12 percent in September) of the hydrologic system during low-flow months. Water budgets for individual tributary and main stem subbasins identified areas, such as the Fort Meadow Brook and the Assabet Main Stem Upper subbasins, where flows resulting from anthropo-genic activities were relatively large percentages, compared to other subbasins, (more than 20 percent in September) of total out-flows. Wastewater flows in the Assabet River accounted for 55, 32, and 20 percent of total nonstorm streamflow (base flow plus wastewater discharge) out of the Assabet Main Stem Upper, Middle, and Lower subbasins, respectively, in an average September. The ground-water-flow models were used to evaluate water-management alternatives by simulating hypothetical scenarios of altered withdrawals and discharges. A scenario that included no water management quantified nonstorm stream-flows that would result without withdrawals, discharges, septic-system return flow, or consumptive use. Tributary flows in this scenario increased in most subbasins by 2 to 44 percent relative to 19972001 conditions. The increases resulted mostly from variable combinations of decreased withdrawals and decreased infiltration to sewers. Average annual nonstorm streamflow in the Assabet River decreased slightly in this scenario, by 2 to 3 percent annually, because gains in ground-water discharge were offset by the elimination of wastewater discharges. A second scenario quantified the effects of increasing withdrawals and discharges to currently permitted levels. In this simulation, average annual tributary flows decreased in most subbasins, by less than 1 to 10 percent relative to 19972001 conditions. In the Assabet River, flows increased slightly, 1 to 5 percent annually, and the percentage of wastewater in the river increased to 69, 42, and 27 percent of total nonstorm streamflow out of the Assabet Main Stem Upper, Middle, and Lower subbasins, respectively, in an average September. A third set of scenarios quantified the effects of ground-water discharge of wastewater at four hypothetical sites, while maintaining 19972000 wastewater discharges to the Assabet River. Wastewater, discharged at a constant rate that varied among sites from 0.3 to 1

Development of an extended-burnup Mark B design. First semi-annual progress report, July-December 1978. Report BAW-1532-1. [PWR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1979-10-01

The primary objective of this program is to develop and demonstrate an improved PWR fuel assembly design capable of batch average burnups of 45,000-50,000 MWd/mtU. To accomplish this, a number of technical areas must be investigated to verify acceptable extended-burnup fuel performance. This report is the first semi-annual progress report for the program, and it describes work performed during the July-December 1978 time period. Efforts during this period included the definition of a preliminary design for a high-burnup fuel rod, physics analyses of extended-burnup fuel cycles, studies of the physics characteristics of changes in fuel assembly metal-to-water ratios, and developmentmore » of a design concept for post-irradiation examination equipment to be utilized in examining high-burnup lead-test assemblies.« less

Predictions of Sunspot Cycle 24: A Comparison with Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, N. J.; Jain, R.

2017-12-01

The space weather is largely affected due to explosions on the Sun viz. solar flares and CMEs, which, however, in turn depend upon the magnitude of the solar activity i e. number of sunspots and their magnetic configuration. Owing to these space weather effects, predictions of sunspot cycle are important. Precursor techniques, particularly employing geomagnetic indices, are often used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude of a sunspot cycle. Based on the average geomagnetic activity index aa (since 1868 onwards) for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, Bhatt et al. (2009) made two predictions for sunspot cycle 24 considering 2008 as the year of sunspot minimum: (i) The annual maximum amplitude would be 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy) indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23, and (ii) smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum would be in October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy). However, observations reveal that the sunspot minima extended up to 2009, and the maximum amplitude attained is 79, with a monthly mean sunspot number maximum of 102.3 in February 2014. In view of the observations and particularly owing to the extended solar minimum in 2009, we re-examined our prediction model and revised the prediction results. We find that (i) The annual maximum amplitude of cycle 24 = 71.2 ± 19.6 and (ii) A smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum in January 2014±4 months. We discuss our failure and success aspects and present improved predictions for the maximum amplitude as well as for the timing, which are now in good agreement with the observations. Also, we present the limitations of our forecasting in the view of long term predictions. We show if year of sunspot minimum activity and magnitude of geomagnetic activity during sunspot minimum are taken correctly then our prediction method appears to be a reliable indicator to forecast the sunspot amplitude of the following solar cycle. References:Bhatt, N.J., Jain, R. & Aggarwal, M.: 2009, Sol. Phys. 260, 225

A benefit-cost analysis of ten tree species in Modesto, California, U.S.A

Treesearch

E.G. McPherson

2003-01-01

Tree work records for ten species were analyzed to estimate average annual management costs by dbh class for six activity areas. Average annual benefits were calculated by dbh class for each species with computer modeling. Average annual net benefits per tree were greatest for London plane (Platanus acerifolia) ($178.57), hackberry (...

Using Screening Level Environmental Life Cycle Assessment to Aid Decision Making: A Case Study of a College Annual Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ingwersen, Wesley W.; Curran, Mary Ann; Gonzalez, Michael A.; Hawkins, Troy R.

2012-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare the life cycle environmental impacts of the University of Cincinnati College of Engineering and Applied Sciences' current printed annual report to a version distributed via the internet. Design/methodology/approach: Life cycle environmental impacts of both versions of the report are modeled using…

Beach response dynamics of a littoral cell using a 17-year single-point time series of sand thickness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, P.L.; Hubbard, D.M.; Dugan, J.E.

2012-01-01

A 17-year time series of near-daily sand thickness measurements at a single intertidal location was compared with 5. years of semi-annual 3-dimensional beach surveys at the same beach, and at two other beaches within the same littoral cell. The daily single point measurements correlated extremely well with the mean beach elevation and shoreline position of ten high-spatial resolution beach surveys. Correlations were statistically significant at all spatial scales, even for beach surveys 10s of kilometers downcoast, and therefore variability at the single point monitoring site was representative of regional coastal behavior, allowing us to examine nearly two decades of continuous coastal evolution. The annual cycle of beach oscillations dominated the signal, typical of this region, with additional, less intense spectral peaks associated with seasonal wave energy fluctuations (~. 45 to 90. days), as well as full lunar (~. 29. days) and semi-lunar (~. 13. days; spring-neap cycle) tidal cycles. Sand thickness variability was statistically linked to wave energy with a 2. month peak lag, as well as the average of the previous 7-8. months of wave energy. Longer term anomalies in sand thickness were also apparent on time scales up to 15. months. Our analyses suggest that spatially-limited morphological data sets can be extremely valuable (with robust validation) for understanding the details of beach response to wave energy over timescales that are not resolved by typical survey intervals, as well as the regional behavior of coastal systems. ?? 2011.

Ecological life cycle of Chaerophyllum procumbens variety shortii (Apiacheae), a winter annual of the North American dedicuous forest

Treesearch

Carol C. Baskin; Tracy S. Hawkins; Jerry M. Baskin

2004-01-01

Numerous winter annuals occur in temperate eastern North America. Based on life cycle information and flowering period, the flora of northeastern USA and adjacent Canada described in Gray's Manual of Botany (Fernald 1950) contains 96 winter annuals (C. Baskin unpublished). This list includes native and introduced species in 57 genera and 23 families. The majority...

Anomalously Strong and Rapid Drying of the Tropical Lower Stratosphere in 2016: Connections to Both the QBO and ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurst, D. F.; Davis, S. M.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Lambert, A.; Read, W. G.; Hall, E.; Jordan, A. F.

2017-12-01

Variations in tropical lower stratospheric water vapor are generally attributable to annual cycles in the Brewer-Dobson circulation and inter-annual phenomenon like the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extremes in tropical lower stratospheric water vapor (SWV) occur when these annual and inter-annual changes are constructively superimposed. The atypical progression of the 2015-16 QBO led to a strong and rapid cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere during 2016. From December 2015 to November 2016, monthly tropical mean (15°S-15°N) coldpoint temperature (CPT) anomalies decreased 3.2°C, from 1.1 to -2.1°C. Accordingly, monthly tropical mean SWV anomalies at 83 hPa dropped 1.9 ppm, from 0.85 to -1.05 ppm. This decline in SWV anomalies is equivalent to 40% of the long-term December average tropical abundance of SWV at 83 hPa. The 2016 decreases in tropical anomalies of both CPTs and SWV were not zonally uniform, with average Eastern Hemisphere reductions greater by 2°C and 0.9 ppm (50%), respectively. Since the QBO typically has a zonally uniform effect on tropical CPTs, this implies a zonally non-uniform mechanism like ENSO also influenced CPTs during 2016. The transition of ENSO from strong El Niño to weak La Niña conditions in 2016 would induce this zonal non-uniformity by shifting convective activity from the Eastern Pacific to the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Evidence indicates the simultaneous cooling of tropical CPTs by both the QBO and ENSO during 2016 rapidly dried the tropical lower stratosphere with anomalous strength, especially in the Eastern Hemisphere.

Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle

DOE PAGES

Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine; ...

2017-06-08

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyos, Isabel; Baquero-Bernal, Astrid; Hagemann, Stefan

2013-09-01

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while precipitation is better represented by Delaware. Among the three datasets that permit an analysis of surface water and energy balances (REMO, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR), REMO best demonstrates the closure property of the surface water balance within the basin, while NCEP/NCAR does not demonstrate this property well. The three datasets represent the energy balance fairly well, although some inconsistencies were found in the individual balance components for NCEP/NCAR.

The Annual Cycle of Water Vapor on Mars as Observed by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Michael D.; Vondrak, Richard R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Spectra taken by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) have been used to monitor the latitude, longitude, and seasonal dependence of water vapor for over one full Martian year (March 1999-March 2001). A maximum in water vapor abundance is observed at high latitudes during mid-summer in both hemispheres, reaching a maximum value of approximately 100 pr-micrometer in the north and approximately 50 pr-micrometer in the south. Low water vapor abundance (<5 pr-micrometer) is observed at middle and high latitudes in the fall and winter of both hemispheres. There are large differences in the hemispheric (north versus south) and seasonal (perihelion versus aphelion) behavior of water vapor. The latitudinal and seasonal dependence of the decay of the northern summer water vapor maximum implies cross-equatorial transport of water to the southern hemisphere, while there is little or no corresponding transport during the decay of the southern hemisphere summer maximum. The latitude-longitude dependence of annually-averaged water vapor (corrected for topography) has a significant positive correlation with albedo and significant negative correlations with thermal inertia and surface pressure. Comparison of TES results with those retrieved from the Viking Orbiter Mars Atmospheric Water Detectors (MAWD) experiments shows some similar features, but also many significant differences. The southern hemisphere maximum observed by TES was not observed by MAWD and the large latitudinal gradient in annually-averaged water vapor observed by MAWD does not appear in the TES results.

Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marsula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993–2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future.

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1 2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1,2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

50 CFR 218.112 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... average of 119274 annually). (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—1890 (an...) Short-beaked common dolphin—10 (an average of 2 annually); (vii) Northern elephant seal—10 (an average...

50 CFR 218.112 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... average of 119274 annually). (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—1890 (an...) Short-beaked common dolphin—10 (an average of 2 annually); (vii) Northern elephant seal—10 (an average...

50 CFR 218.112 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... average of 119274 annually). (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—1890 (an...) Short-beaked common dolphin—10 (an average of 2 annually); (vii) Northern elephant seal—10 (an average...

Minnesota Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2009 and 2012 IECC as Compared to the Minnesota Residential Energy Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-04-01

The 2009 and 2012 International Energy Conservation Codes (IECC) yield positive benefits for Minnesota homeowners. Moving to either the 2009 or 2012 IECC from the current Minnesota Residential Energy Code is cost effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Minnesota homeowners will save $1,277 over 30 years under the 2009 IECC, with savings still higher at $9,873 with the 2012 IECC. After accounting for upfront costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceed cumulative cash outlays) in 3 years for the 2009 IECC and 1 year for themore » 2012 IECC. Average annual energy savings are $122 for the 2009 IECC and $669 for the 2012 IECC.« less

Arizona Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2009 and 2012 IECC as Compared to the 2006 IECC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-04-01

The 2009 and 2012 International Energy Conservation Codes (IECC) yield positive benefits for Arizona homeowners. Moving to either the 2009 or 2012 IECC from the 2006 IECC is cost-effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Arizona homeowners will save $3,245 over 30 years under the 2009 IECC, with savings still higher at $6,550 with the 2012 IECC. After accounting for upfront costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceeding cumulative cash outlays) in 1 year for the 2009 and 2 years with the 2012 IECC. Average annual energymore » savings are $231 for the 2009 IECC and $486 for the 2012 IECC.« less

Wisconsin Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2009 and 2012 IECC as Compared to the Wisconsin Uniform Dwelling Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-04-01

The 2009 and 2012 International Energy Conservation Codes (IECC) yield positive benefits for Wisconsin homeowners. Moving to either the 2009 or 2012 IECC from the current Wisconsin state code is cost effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Wisconsin homeowners will save $2,484 over 30 years under the 2009 IECC, with savings still higher at $10,733 with the 2012 IECC. After accounting for upfront costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceeding cumulative cash outlays) in 1 year for both the 2009 and 2012 IECC. Average annual energymore » savings are $149 for the 2009 IECC and $672 for the 2012 IECC.« less

The Diurnal Cycle of Clouds and Precipitation at the ARM SGP Site: An Atmospheric State-Based Analysis and Error Decomposition of a Multiscale Modeling Framework Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wei; Marchand, Roger; Fu, Qiang

2017-12-01

Long-term reflectivity data collected by a millimeter cloud radar at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are used to examine the diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation and are compared with the diurnal cycle simulated by a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) climate model. The study uses a set of atmospheric states that were created specifically for the SGP and for the purpose of investigating under what synoptic conditions models compare well with observations on a statistical basis (rather than using case studies or seasonal or longer time scale averaging). Differences in the annual mean diurnal cycle between observations and the MMF are decomposed into differences due to the relative frequency of states, the daily mean vertical profile of hydrometeor occurrence, and the (normalized) diurnal variation of hydrometeors in each state. Here the hydrometeors are classified as cloud or precipitation based solely on the reflectivity observed by a millimeter radar or generated by a radar simulator. The results show that the MMF does not capture the diurnal variation of low clouds well in any of the states but does a reasonable job capturing the diurnal variations of high clouds and precipitation in some states. In particular, the diurnal variations in states that occur during summer are reasonably captured by the MMF, while the diurnal variations in states that occur during the transition seasons (spring and fall) are not well captured. Overall, the errors in the annual composite are due primarily to errors in the daily mean of hydrometeor occurrence (rather than diurnal variations), but errors in the state frequency (that is, the distribution of weather states in the model) also play a significant role.

The biogeochemistry of arsenic in a remote UK upland site: trends in rainfall and runoff, and comparisons with urban rivers.

PubMed

Rowland, A P; Neal, C; Reynolds, B; Jarvie, H P; Sleep, D; Lawlor, A J; Neal, M

2011-05-01

Ten years of monitoring of rainfall and streams in the remote acidic and acid sensitive moorland and afforested moorland of upland mid-Wales reveals concentrations of arsenic (As) typically <1 µg L(-1). On average, the lowest concentrations occur within rainfall and they have declined over time probably in response to reductions in global emissions. There is a corresponding reduction within the streams except for forested systems where concentrations up to doubled following clear-fell. Within the streams there are both annual cycling and diurnal cycling of As. The annual cycling gives maxima during the summer months and this probably reflects the importance of groundwater inputs and mineralisation/desorption from the surface soil layers. Correspondingly, the diurnal cycling occurs during the summer months at low flow periods with As concentrations highest in the afternoon/evening. For the urban/industrial basins of northern England with historically a much higher As deposition, land contamination and effluent discharges, comparative data indicate As concentrations around three fold higher: strong seasonal patterns are observed for the same reasons as with the uplands. Across the sites, the As concentrations are over an order of magnitude lower than that of environmental concern. Nonetheless, the results clearly show the effects of declining emissions on rainfall deposition and some indication of areas of historic contamination. Arsenic is mainly present in the <0.45 fraction, but cross-flow filtration indicates that approx. 43% is in the colloidal phase at the clean water sites, and 16% in the colloidal phase at the contaminated sites. Part of this colloidal component may well be associated with organic carbon.

Characterizing the annual cycle of African dust transport to the Caribbean Basin and South America and its impact on the environment and air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prospero, Joseph M.; Collard, François-Xavier; Molinié, Jack; Jeannot, Alexis

2014-07-01

Decades of aerosol measurements on Barbados have yielded a detailed picture of African mineral dust transport to the Caribbean Basin that shows a strong seasonal cycle with a maximum in boreal summer and a minimum in winter. Satellite aerosol products suggest that in spring, there is a comparable transport to northeastern South America. Here we characterize the complete annual cycle of dust transport to the western Atlantic by linking the Barbados record to multiyear records of airborne particulate matter less than 10 µm diameter (PM10) measured in air quality programs at Cayenne (French Guiana) and Guadeloupe. Comparisons of PM10 at these sites with concurrent dust measurements at Barbados demonstrate that high PM10 levels are almost entirely due to dust. Cayenne PM10 peaks in spring in a cycle which is consistent with satellite aerosol optical depth and suggests that the Sahel is the dominant source. The persistent transport of dust during much of the year could impact a wide range of environmental processes over a broad region that extends from the southern United States to the Amazon Basin. Finally, the average 24 h PM10 concentrations at Cayenne and Guadeloupe frequently exceed the World Health Organization air quality guideline. Thus soil dust PM10 could be a significant, but generally unrecognized, health factor at western Atlantic sites and also in other relatively remote regions affected by long-range dust from Africa. Because dust emissions and transport are highly sensitive to climate variability, climate change in coming decades could greatly affect a wide range of biogeochemical processes and human health in this region.

Effect of soil in nutrient cycle assessment at dairy farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Leeuwen, Maricke; de Boer, Imke; van Dam, Jos; van Middelaar, Corina; Stoof, Cathelijne

2016-04-01

Annual farm nutrient cycle assessments give valuable insight in the nutrient cycles and nutrient losses at dairy farms. It describes nutrient use efficiencies for the entire farm and for the underlying components cattle, manure, crops and soil. In many modelling studies, soil is kept as a constant factor, while soil quality is vital for soil functioning of the ecosystem. Improving soil quality will improve the nutrient cycle, and will also have positive effect on the soil functions crop production, water cycling and greenhouse gas mitigation. Spatial variation of soil properties within a farm, however, are not included in annual nutrient cycle assessments. Therefore it is impossible to identify fields where most profit can be gained by improving farm management at field level, and it is not possible to identify and to quantify nutrient flow path ways. The aim of this study is to develop a framework to improve the annual nutrient cycle assessment at Dutch dairy farms, by including soil properties and their spatial variation within farms. Soil type and soil quality will be described by visual soil assessment of soil quality characteristics. The visual observations will be linked to the nutrient cycle assessment, using soil-hydrological model SWAP. We will demonstrate how soil quality at field level can impact on crop production, eutrophication potential and greenhouse gas potential at farm level. Also, we will show how this framework can be used by farmers to improve their farm management. This new approach is focusing on annual nutrient cycle assessment, but could also be used in life cycle assessment. It will improve understanding of soil functioning and dairy farm management.

Quantification of tidally-influenced seasonal groundwater discharge to the Bay of Bengal by seepage meter study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debnath, Palash; Mukherjee, Abhijit

2016-06-01

Submarine groundwater discharges (SGD) play a major role in solute transport and nutrient flux to the ocean. We have conducted a spatio-temporal high-resolution lunar-tidal cycle-scale seepage meter experiment during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, to quantify the spatio-temporal patterns and variability of SGD, its terrestrial (T-SGD) and marine components (M-SGD). The measured daily average SGD rates range from no discharge to 3.6 m3 m-2 d-1 during pre-monsoon season and 0.08-5.9 m3 m-2 d-1 during post-monsoon seasons, depending on the tidal pattern. The uncertainty for SGD measurement is calculated as ±0.8% to ±11% for pre-monsoon and ±1.8% to ±17% for post-monsoon respectively. A linear, inverse relationship was observed between the calculated T-SGD and M-SGD components, which varied along the distance from the coast and position in the tidal-cycle, spatial and temporal (daily) variations of seepage rates within the lunar tidal cycle period distinctly demonstrate the influence of tides on groundwater seepage rate. As an instance, for the identification of the bulk discharge location, the centroid of the integrated SGD rate has been calculated and found to be near 20 m offshore area. The average discharge rate per unit area further extrapolated to total SGD fluxes to the Bay of Bengal from eastern Indian coast by extrapolation of the annual and seasonal fluxes observed in the study area, which are first direct/experimental estimate of SGD to the Bay of Bengal. Approximations suggest that in present-day condition, total average annual SGD to the Bay of Bengal is about 8.98 ± 0.6 × 108 m3/y. This is suggested that the SGD input to the ocean through the Bay of Bengal is approximately 0.9% of the global input from the inter-tidal zone and that has an implication on the mass balance of discharging solutes/nutrients to the global oceans. High T-SGD input is observed for all season, which is largest toward landward direction from the delineated saltwater-freshwater interface. The high magnitude of T-SGD could play an important role in mass balance of fresh water discharge and solute transport to the global ocean, thereby influence coastal ecohydrological systems.

Chloride cycling in two forested lake watersheds in the west-central Adirondack Mountains, New York, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, N.E.

1991-01-01

The chemistry of precipitation, throughfall, soil water, ground water, and surface water was evaluated in two forested lake-watersheds over a 4-yr period to assess factors controlling C1- cycling. Results indicate that C1- cycling in these watersheds is more complex than the generally held view of the rapid transport of atmospherically derived C1- through the ecosystem. The annual throughfall Cl- flux for individual species in the northern hardwood forest was 2 to 5 times that of precipitation (56 eq ha-1), whereas the Na+ throughfall flux, in general, was similar to the precipitation flux. Concentrations of soil-water Cl- sampled from ceramic tension lysimeters at 20 cm below land surface generally exceeded the Na+ concentrations and averaged 31 ??eq L-1, the highest of any waters sampled in the watersheds, except throughfall under red spruce which averaged 34 ??eq L-1. Chloride was concentrated prior to storms and mobilized rapidly during storms as suggested by increases in streamwater Cl- concentrations with increasing flow. Major sources of Cl- in both watersheds are the forest floor and hornblende weathering in the soils and till. In the Panther Lake watershed, which contains mainly thick deposits of till( > 3 m), hornblende weathering results in a net Cl- flux 3 times greater than that in the Woods Lake watershed, which contains mainly thin deposits of till. The estimated accumulation rate of Cl- in the biomass of the two watersheds was comparable to the precipitation Cl- flux.The chemistry of precipitation, throughfall, soil water, ground water, and surface water was evaluated in two forested lake-watersheds over a 4-yr period to assess factors controlling Cl- cycling. Results indicate that Cl- cycling in these watersheds is more complex than the generally held view of the rapid transport of atmospherically derived Cl- through the excosystem. The annual throughfall Cl- flux for individual species in the northern hardwood forest was 2 to 5 times that of precipitation (56 eq ha-1), whereas the Na+ throughfall flux, in general, was similar to the precipitation flux. Concentrations of soil-water Cl- sampled from ceramic tension lysimeters at 20 cm below land surface generally exceeded the Na+ concentrations and averaged 31 ??eq L-1, the highest of any waters sampled in the watersheds, except throughfall under red spruce which averaged 34 ??eq L-1. Chloride was concentrated prior to storms and mobilized rapidly during storms as suggested by increases in streamwater Cl- concentrations with increasing flow. Major sources of Cl- in both watersheds are the forest floor and hornblende weathering in the soils and till. In the Panther Lake watershed, which contains mainly thick deposits of till (> 3 m), hornblende weathering results in a net Cl- flux 3 times greater than that in the Woods Lake watershed, which contains mainly thin deposits of till. The estimated accumulation rate of Cl- in the biomass of the two watersheds was comparable to the precipitation Cl- flux.

Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1926-1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Kegel, Rainer; Harris, Neil R. P.

1998-04-01

Total ozone measurements have been made at Arosa, Switzerland (47°N), from 1926 through the present day, forming the longest total ozone series in the world. The record has been recently homogenized. Ozone trends are calculated to be -(2.3±0.6)% per decade for annual means (larger losses are found in winter and spring, approximately -4% per decade for trends in January, February, and March) when a simple linear change from 1970 to 1996 is assumed. In addition, total ozone trends are calculated using multiple regression models involving combinations of explanatory variables for the 11-year solar cycle, local meteorological conditions (the Mount Säntis high-altitude temperature record), stratospheric aerosol loading from volcanoes, and stratospheric chlorine loading. When the terms for the solar cycle, the stratospheric aerosol loading and the high mountain temperature record were included, the annually averaged ozone trends were found to be -(1.9±0.6)% per decade. While a statistically significant relation is found between total ozone and indices of aerosol loadings of the stratosphere, the recent decrease in total ozone cannot be accounted for by the higher average aerosol content in the second half of the century. Finally, the decrease in ozone in the stratosphere is estimated to be approximately 30% larger than that found for total ozone, when a crude estimate of the increase in tropospheric ozone is included. The acceleration observed in total ozone trends between the 1970s and the 1980s over northern midlatitudes [e.g., Harris et al., 1997] might be partially attributed to the larger increase in tropospheric ozone in the 1970s.

Sex Difference in Draft-Legal Ultra-Distance Events - A Comparison between Ultra-Swimming and Ultra-Cycling.

PubMed

Salihu, Lejla; Rüst, Christoph Alexander; Rosemann, Thomas; Knechtle, Beat

2016-04-30

Recent studies reported that the sex difference in performance in ultra-endurance sports such as swimming and cycling changed over the years. However, the aspect of drafting in draft-legal ultra-endurance races has not yet been investigated. This study investigates the sex difference in ultra-swimming and ultra-cycling draft-legal races where drafting - swimming or cycling behind other participants to save energy and have more power at the end of the race to overtake them, is allowed. The change in performance of the annual best and the annual three best in an ultra-endurance swimming race (16-km 'Faros Swim Marathon') over 38 years and in a 24-h ultra-cycling race ('World Cycling Race') over 13 years were compared and analysed with respect to sex difference. Furthermore, performances of the fastest female and male finishers ever were compared. In the swimming event, the sex difference of the annual best male and female decreased non-significantly (P = 0.262) from 5.3% (1976) to 1.0% (2013). The sex gap of speed in the annual three fastest swimmers decreased significantly (P = 0.043) from 5.9 ± 1.6% (1979) to 4.7 ± 3.1% (2013). In the cycling event, the difference in cycling speed between the annual best male and female decreased significantly (P = 0.026) from 33.31% (1999) to 10.89% (2011). The sex gap of speed in the annual three fastest decreased significantly (P = 0.001) from 32.9 ± 0.6% (1999) to 16.4 ± 5.9% (2011). The fastest male swimmer ever (swimming speed 5.3 km/h, race time: 03:01:55 h:min:s) was 1.5% faster than the fastest female swimmer (swimming speed 5.2 km/h, race time: 03:04:09 h:min:s). The three fastest male swimmers ever (mean 5.27 ± 0.13 km/h) were 4.4% faster than the three fastest female swimmers (mean 5.05 ± 0.20 km/h) (P < 0.05). In the cycling event, the best male ever (cycling speed 45.8 km/h) was 26.4% faster than the best female (cycling speed 36.1 km/h). The three fastest male cyclists ever (45.9 km/h) (mean 45.85 ± 0.05 km/h) were 32.1% faster (P < 0.05) than the three fastest female cyclists ever (34.7 km/h) (mean 34.70 ± 1.87 km/h). In summary, in draft-legal ultra-distance events such as swimming and cycling, the sex difference in the annual top and annual top three swimmers and cyclists decreased (i.e. non-linearly in swimmers and linearly in cyclists) over the years. The sex difference of the fastest athletes ever was smaller in swimming (1.5%) than in cycling (26.4%). This finding is different from reports about races where drafting was not possible or even prohibited and where the sex difference remained stable over years.

Sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics of the surface air temperature annual cycle to variations in annual mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Guseva, M. S.

2006-05-01

The ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR data over 1958 1998 were used to estimate the sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics (APCs) of the annual cycle (AC) of the surface air temperature (SAT) T s. The results were compared with outputs of the ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and INM RAS general circulation models and the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity, which were run with variations in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol specified over 1860 2100. The analysis was performed in terms of the linear regression coefficients b of SAT AC APCs on the local annual mean temperature and in terms of the sensitivity characteristic D = br 2, which takes into account not only the linear regression coefficient but also its statistical significance (via the correlation coefficient r). The reanalysis data were used to reveal the features of the tendencies of change in the SAT AC APCs in various regions, including areas near the snow-ice boundary, storm-track ocean regions, large desert areas, and the tropical Pacific. These results agree with earlier observations. The model computations are in fairly good agreement with the reanalysis data in regions of statistically significant variations in SAT AC APCs. The differences between individual models and the reanalysis data can be explained, in particular, in terms of the features of the sea-ice schemes used in the models. Over the land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the absolute values of D for the fall phase time and the interval of exceeding exhibit a positive intermodel correlation with the absolute value of D for the annual-harmonic amplitude. Over the ocean, the models reproducing larger (in modulus) sensitivity parameters of the SAT annual-harmonic amplitude are generally characterized by larger (in modulus) negative sensitivity values of the semiannual-harmonic amplitude T s, 2, especially at latitudes characteristic of the sea-ice boundary. In contrast to the averaged fields of AC APCs and their interannual standard deviations, the sensitivity parameters of the SAT AC APCs on a regional scale vary noticeably for various types of anthropogenic forcing.

Forcing and Responses of the Surface Energy Budget at Summit, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Nathaniel B.

Energy exchange at the Greenland Ice Sheet surface governs surface temperature variability, a factor critical for representing increasing surface melt extent, which portends a rise in global sea level. A comprehensive set of cloud, tropospheric, near-surface and sub-surface measurements at Summit Station is utilized to determine the driving forces and subsequent responses of the surface energy budget (SEB). This budget includes radiative, turbulent, and ground heat fluxes, and ultimately controls the evolution of surface temperature. At Summit Station, clouds radiatively warm the surface in all months with an annual average cloud radiative forcing value of 33 W m -2, largely driven by the occurrence of liquid-bearing clouds. The magnitude of the surface temperature response is dependent on how turbulent and ground heat fluxes modulate changes to radiative forcing. Relationships between forcing terms and responding surface fluxes show that changes in the upwelling longwave radiation compensate for 65-85% (50- 60%) of the total change in radiative forcing in the winter (summer). The ground heat flux is the second largest response term (16% annually), especially during winter. Throughout the annual cycle, the sensible heat flux response is comparatively constant (9%) and latent heat flux response is only 1.5%, becoming more of a factor in modulating surface temperature responses during the summer. Combining annual cycles of these responses with cloud radiative forcing results, clouds warm the surface by an estimated 7.8°C annually. A reanalysis product (ERA-I), operational model (CFSv2), and climate model (CESM) are evaluated utilizing the comprehensive set of SEB observations and process-based relationships. Annually, surface temperatures in each model are warmer than observed with overall poor representation of the coldest surface temperatures. Process-based relationships between different SEB flux terms offer insight into how well a modeling framework represents physical processes and the ability to distinguish errors in forcing versus those in physical representation. Such relationships convey that all three models underestimate the response of surface temperatures to changes in radiative forcing. These results provide a method to expose model deficiencies and indicate the importance of representing surface, sub-surface and boundary-layer processes when portraying cloud impacts on surface temperature variability.

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

The annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winder, M.; Cloern, J.E.

2010-01-01

Terrestrial plants are powerful climate sentinels because their annual cycles of growth, reproduction and senescence are finely tuned to the annual climate cycle having a period of one year. Consistency in the seasonal phasing of terrestrial plant activity provides a relatively low-noise background from which phenological shifts can be detected and attributed to climate change. Here, we ask whether phytoplankton biomass also fluctuates over a consistent annual cycle in lake, estuarine-coastal and ocean ecosystems and whether there is a characteristic phenology of phytoplankton as a consistent phase and amplitude of variability. We compiled 125 time series of phytoplankton biomass (chloro-phyll a concentration) from temperate and subtropical zones and used wavelet analysis to extract their dominant periods of variability and the recurrence strength at those periods. Fewer than half (48%) of the series had a dominant 12-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the canonical spring-bloom pattern. About 20 per cent had a dominant six-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the spring and autumn or winter and summer blooms of temperate lakes and oceans. These annual patterns varied in recurrence strength across sites, and did not persist over the full series duration at some sites. About a third of the series had no component of variability at either the six-or 12-month period, reflecting a series of irregular pulses of biomass. These findings show that there is high variability of annual phytoplankton cycles across ecosystems, and that climate-driven annual cycles can be obscured by other drivers of population variability, including human disturbance, aperiodic weather events and strong trophic coupling between phytoplankton and their consumers. Regulation of phytoplankton biomass by multiple processes operating at multiple time scales adds complexity to the challenge of detecting climate-driven trends in aquatic ecosystems where the noise to signal ratio is high. ?? 2010 The Royal Society.

Modeling the spatial-temporal dynamics of net primary production in Yangtze River Basin using IBIS model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Z.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Q.; Wei, X.; Jiang, Z.; Zhou, G.; Zhang, X.; Han, J.

2011-01-01

The climate change has significantly affected the carbon cycling in Yangtze River Basin. To better understand the alternation pattern for the relationship between carbon cycling and climate change, the net primary production (NPP) were simulated in the study area from 1956 to 2006 by using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The results showed that the average annual NPP per square meter was about 0.518 kg C in Yangtze River Basin. The high NPP levels were mainly distributed in the southeast area of Sichuan, and the highest value reached 1.05 kg C/m2. The NPP increased based on the simulated temporal trends. The spatiotemporal variability of the NPP in the vegetation types was obvious, and it was depended on the climate and soil condition. We found the drought climate was one of critical factor that impacts the alterations of the NPP in the area by the simulation. ?? 2011 IEEE.

Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregon’s urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Law, Beverly E.; Still, Christopher Jason; Schmidt, Andres

Our overarching goal was to develop and utilize an observation-based analysis framework to assess interactions between climate and mosaics of land use, land cover and urbanization on regional carbon, water, and energy dynamics, and potential changes associated with land management and climate. Carbon, water and energy cycling was quantified for the range of current and potential land uses under present and future climates. The study region of Oregon has a strong climatic gradient from the coastal mesic forests (2500mm ppt) to the Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, and the Northern Great Basin semi-arid “cold desert” to the east (300 mm). Themore » study was focused on the effects of (1) conversion of semi-arid sagebrush and Willamette Valley agricultural crops to bioenergy production; (2) afforestation of idle land and rangelands deemed suitable for forests or poplar crops under future climate conditions. We found that net ecosystem production (NEP), the net of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration, was 10 times higher in the high biomass forests of the Coast Range compared with drier regions like sagebrush in the Northern Great Basin, which was nearly zero (Schmidt et al. 2016). The state total NEP averaged about 30 teragrams carbon (Tg C) per year for the years 2012 to 2014 using our model framework that we developed for predictions of current and future NEP, and compared well with our detailed inventory estimates (28 Tg C annual average for 2011-2015 for forests only; Law et al. 2017). Running our model framework until the year 2050, we found that climate alone only increased NEP by less than 1 Tg C per decade (~3%) using the current trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions, however, changes are expected to be more rapid in subsequent years. We evaluated the possibility of land use change from grass seed crops to poplar for bioenergy, which slightly increased NEP by 2050. The most important variable for carbon sequestration estimates (net carbon sources and sinks) is net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), which accounts for NEP and losses associated with harvest removals and wildfire emissions. Here, we focus on forests because they have the largest effect on carbon sequestration. We found that NECB in Oregon averaged 18.8 Tg C per year in 2011-2015, offsetting fossil fuel emissions (16 Tg C per year). Annual fire emissions reducing NECB by about 5% (0.97 Tg C per year) in the state. The mesic Coast Range and West Cascades ecoregions that make up the western third of Oregon account for 60% of the forest NECB. This analysis illustrates that annual emissions from forests disturbances are low relative to annual fossil fuel emissions for the same area (Law et al. 2017, Hudiburg et al. in review).« less

Emissions from photovoltaic life cycles.

PubMed

Fthenakis, Vasilis M; Kim, Hyung Chul; Alsema, Erik

2008-03-15

Photovoltaic (PV) technologies have shown remarkable progress recently in terms of annual production capacity and life cycle environmental performances, which necessitate timely updates of environmental indicators. Based on PV production data of 2004-2006, this study presents the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, and heavy metal emissions from four types of major commercial PV systems: multicrystalline silicon, monocrystalline silicon, ribbon silicon, and thin-film cadmium telluride. Life-cycle emissions were determined by employing average electricity mixtures in Europe and the United States during the materials and module production for each PV system. Among the current vintage of PV technologies, thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV emits the least amount of harmful air emissions as it requires the least amount of energy during the module production. However, the differences in the emissions between different PV technologies are very small in comparison to the emissions from conventional energy technologies that PV could displace. As a part of prospective analysis, the effect of PV breeder was investigated. Overall, all PV technologies generate far less life-cycle air emissions per GWh than conventional fossil-fuel-based electricity generation technologies. At least 89% of air emissions associated with electricity generation could be prevented if electricity from photovoltaics displaces electricity from the grid.

Year-to-year variations in annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations.

PubMed

Martz, D E; Rood, A S; George, J L; Pearson, M D; Langner, G H

1991-09-01

Annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations in 40 residences in and around Grand Junction, CO, have been measured repeatedly since 1984 using commercial alpha-track monitors (ATM) deployed for successive 12-mo time periods. Data obtained provide a quantitative measure of the year-to-year variations in the annual average Rn concentrations in these structures over this 6-y period. A mean coefficient of variation of 25% was observed for the year-to-year variability of the measurements at 25 sampling stations for which complete data were available. Individual coefficients of variation at the various stations ranged from a low of 7.7% to a high of 51%. The observed mean coefficient of variation includes contributions due to the variability in detector response as well as the true year-to-year variation in the annual average Rn concentrations. Factoring out the contributions from the measured variability in the response of the detectors used, the actual year-to-year variability of the annual average Rn concentrations was approximately 22%.

20 CFR 30.811 - How will OWCP calculate the duration and extent of a covered Part E employee's initial period of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... exceed 50 percent of his or her average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $15,000 as compensation... did not exceed 75 percent of such average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $10,000 as... EEOICPA Determinations of Average Annual Wage and Percentages of Loss § 30.811 How will OWCP calculate the...

20 CFR 30.811 - How will OWCP calculate the duration and extent of a covered Part E employee's initial period of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... exceed 50 percent of his or her average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $15,000 as compensation... did not exceed 75 percent of such average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $10,000 as... EEOICPA Determinations of Average Annual Wage and Percentages of Loss § 30.811 How will OWCP calculate the...

Annual mass drownings of the Serengeti wildebeest migration influence nutrient cycling and storage in the Mara River

PubMed Central

Rosi, Emma J.; Post, David M.

2017-01-01

The annual migration of ∼1.2 million wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) through the Serengeti Mara Ecosystem is the largest remaining overland migration in the world. One of the most iconic portions of their migration is crossing of the Mara River, during which thousands drown annually. These mass drownings have been noted, but their frequency, size, and impact on aquatic ecosystems have not been quantified. Here, we estimate the frequency and size of mass drownings in the Mara River and model the fate of carcass nutrients through the river ecosystem. Mass drownings (>100 individuals) occurred in at least 13 of the past 15 y; on average, 6,250 carcasses and 1,100 tons of biomass enter the river each year. Half of a wildebeest carcass dry mass is bone, which takes 7 y to decompose, thus acting as a long-term source of nutrients to the Mara River. Carcass soft tissue decomposes in 2–10 wk, and these nutrients are mineralized by consumers, assimilated by biofilms, transported downstream, or moved back into the terrestrial ecosystem by scavengers. These inputs comprise 34–50% of the assimilated diet of fish when carcasses are present and 7–24% via biofilm on bones after soft tissue decomposition. Our results show a terrestrial animal migration can have large impacts on a river ecosystem, which may influence nutrient cycling and river food webs at decadal time scales. Similar mass drownings may have played an important role in rivers throughout the world when large migratory herds were more common features of the landscape. PMID:28630330

Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mursula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993-2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Consumptive water use associated with food waste: case study of fresh mango in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridoutt, B. G.; Juliano, P.; Sanguansri, P.; Sellahewa, J.

2009-07-01

In many parts of the world, freshwater is already a scarce and overexploited natural resource, raising concerns about global food security and damage to freshwater ecosystems. This situation is expected to intensify with the FAO estimating that world food production must double by 2050. Food chains must therefore become much more efficient in terms of consumptive water use. For the small and geographically well-defined Australian mango industry, having an average annual production of 44 692 t of marketable fresh fruit, the average virtual water content (sum of green, blue and gray water) at orchard gate was 2298 l kg-1. However, due to wastage in the distribution and consumption stages of the product life cycle, the average virtual water content of one kg of Australian-grown fresh mango consumed by an Australian household was 5218 l. This latter figure compares to an Australian-equivalent water footprint of 217 l kg-1, which is the volume of direct water use by an Australian household having an equivalent potential to contribute to water scarcity. Nationally, distribution and consumption waste in the food chain of Australian-grown fresh mango to Australian households represented an annual waste of 26.7 Gl of green water and 16.6 Gl of blue water. These findings suggest that interventions to reduce food chain waste will likely have as great or even greater impact on freshwater resource availability as other water use efficiency measures in agriculture and food production.

Relationships between annual cycles of testosterone, corticosterone, and body condition in male red-spotted garter snakes, Thamnophis sirtalis concinnus.

PubMed

Moore, I T; Lerner, J P; Lerner, D T; Mason, R T

2000-01-01

Over a 2-yr period, we investigated the annual cycles of plasma testosterone and corticosterone and the relationships between these hormones and body condition in a wild population of male red-spotted garter snakes, Thamnophis sirtalis concinnus. In the 10 mo that were sampled, a peak in testosterone was observed in late summer during gametogenesis and declining through the spring breeding period. Corticosterone and testosterone cycles were positively correlated, in contrast to many vertebrates, suggesting the lack of a direct negative interaction between the two hormones. Body condition, defined as the residual of the regression of mass on snout-vent length, also cycled annually, with individuals being more robust during the summer than during the spring or fall. Individuals with a positive body condition had significantly lower plasma levels of corticosterone than did individuals with a negative body condition, supporting the energetic role of glucocorticoids. There was no relationship between body condition and testosterone. This study suggests that annual cycles of testosterone, corticosterone, and body condition can be associated with one another, and considering all three simultaneously is necessary to understand their control and function.

The Annual Cycle of the Japan Sea Throughflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kida, S.; Qiu, B.; Yang, J.; Lin, X.

2016-02-01

The mechanism responsible for the annual cycle of the flows through the straits of Japan Sea is investigated using a two-layer model. Japan Sea is one of the marginal sea located in the western North Pacific that is separated from the Pacific by the islands of Japan. Three narrow and shallow straits, the Tsushima, Tsugaru, and Soya Straits, connect this sea towards the Pacific Ocean and Okhotsk Sea and observations show that the flow through these three straits vary annually with a maximum transport in summer-fall and a minimum transport in winter. The variability is large for Soya (north) and Tsushima (south) Straits but weak for the Tsugaru Strait (middle). We find the subpolar winds located to the north of Soya Strait to be the primary forcing agent of this annual cycle rather than the subtropical winds located to the east of Japan. The subpolar winds generate baroclinic Kelvin waves that perturb the sea surface height at the Soya Strait, cause barotropic adjustment to occur within the Japan Sea, and change the flow at the other straits. The shallow topography at the straits plays an important role. This mechanism explains why the annual cycle at the three straits occur almost synchronously. We also find the around-island integral constraint a useful tool for explaining how the magnitude of the annual cycle at the three straits are controlled. The theorem show the magnitude and direction of the flow controlled largely by the ratio of the meridional length of the two islands that is bounded by the three straits..

Trends and annual cycles in soundings of Arctic tropospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christiansen, Bo; Jepsen, Nis; Kivi, Rigel; Hansen, Georg; Larsen, Niels; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik

2017-08-01

Ozone soundings from nine Nordic stations have been homogenized and interpolated to standard pressure levels. The different stations have very different data coverage; the longest period with data is from the end of the 1980s to 2014. At each pressure level the homogenized ozone time series have been analysed with a model that includes both low-frequency variability in the form of a polynomial, an annual cycle with harmonics, the possibility for low-frequency variability in the annual amplitude and phasing, and either white noise or noise given by a first-order autoregressive process. The fitting of the parameters is performed with a Bayesian approach not only giving the mean values but also confidence intervals. The results show that all stations agree on a well-defined annual cycle in the free troposphere with a relatively confined maximum in the early summer. Regarding the low-frequency variability, it is found that Scoresbysund, Ny Ålesund, Sodankylä, Eureka, and Ørland show similar, significant signals with a maximum near 2005 followed by a decrease. This change is characteristic for all pressure levels in the free troposphere. A significant change in the annual cycle was found for Ny Ålesund, Scoresbysund, and Sodankylä. The changes at these stations are in agreement with the interpretation that the early summer maximum is appearing earlier in the year. The results are shown to be robust to the different settings of the model parameters such as the order of the polynomial, number of harmonics in the annual cycle, and the type of noise.

Alternatives to the Moving Average

Treesearch

Paul C. van Deusen

2001-01-01

There are many possible estimators that could be used with annual inventory data. The 5-year moving average has been selected as a default estimator to provide initial results for states having available annual inventory data. User objectives for these estimates are discussed. The characteristics of a moving average are outlined. It is shown that moving average...

SEX-LINKED CHANGES IN PHASE 1 BIOTRANSFORMATION OF PHENOL IN BROOK TROUT OVER AN ANNUAL REPRODUCTIVE CYCLE

EPA Science Inventory

The microsomal metabolism of phenol (11 degrees C) over an annual reproductive cycle from June to December has been studied using fall spawning adult brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Incubations were optimized for time, cofactor connection, pH, and microsomal protein concentr...

Transparency Master: The Annual Aphid Cycle.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sessions, Mary Lynne

1983-01-01

Aphids, often referred to as plant lice, can be found in great numbers on stems, leaves, and flowers of many plants. In many cases these organisms are potentially harmful to their plant hosts. Provided is a description of the annual life cycle of the aphid and an accompanying transparency master. (Author/JN)

Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest carbon loss from dead trees. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of drought impact on forest carbon stocks at the continental level and will provide critical data for future model improvement to better predict the vegetation mortality under droughts.

Precipitable water vapor characterization in the coastal regions of China based on ground-based GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhaoyang; Zhou, Xinghua; Liu, Yanxiong; Zhou, Dongxu; Zhang, Huayi; Sun, Weikang

2017-12-01

Water vapor plays an important role in climate change; thus, studying the spatial distribution and temporal variation of precipitable water vapor (PWV) in the coastal regions of China would help researchers to understand the climate characteristics of those regions. In this paper, 6-year 1-h interval PWV were derived from 27 Global Positioning System stations observations of Chinese coastal GPS observation network, surface meteorological data and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) reanalysis products. The present study provides the use of these data to investigate the spatial-temporal variability of water vapor throughout the coastal regions of China. Latitude is the main factor affecting the spatial distribution of GPS-derived PWV; that is, PWV decreased by about 1.5 mm for each 1° increase of latitude. For regions at the same latitude, a region that is relatively close to the ocean will have a higher content of PWV. The PWV in the southeastern and southwestern coastal regions of China is significantly higher in summer; this may be influenced by the southeastern and southwestern water vapor inflow corridors. The PWV obviously varies monthly, reaching a minimum in January; however, the timing of the maximum varied but usually appeared in June, July or August and was affected by the monsoons. The PWV varies largely between summer and winter with a larger gradient of change in PWV with latitude in winter than in summer. The positive correlation coefficient between PWV and the surface temperature varied in different seasons; this is related to the changes of temperature and the horizontal motion of water vapor. Use of the Fast Fourier Transform method showed that the PWV time series data have multi-scale characteristics. The amplitude and phase of the PWV time series in annual, semiannual, four month and seasonal cycles were extracted through harmonic wave analysis. The amplitude of four month and seasonal cycles did not pass significance testing. The maximum amplitude of the annual PWV cycle is located in mid-latitudes with 22.09 mm, which gradually decreases towards high latitude and equator area. The peak time of annual PWV cycle occurs in July, which does not agree with the timing of the maximum monthly average PWV. The semiannual cycle amplitudes is between 0.42 and 6.32 mm, with no significant correlation between their distribution and latitude. The peak time of semiannual PWV cycles is during about January-March and July-September, and the peak time gradually becomes late from north to south.

The cost of fear

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Thomas E.

2011-01-01

What should parents do when they detect indications of more predators nearby that might eat their babies? This scenario is commonly faced by parents in the wild, and the consequences are important. The number of offspring that organisms produce has a major influence on fitness and, when averaged across a population, affects whether this population will increase or decrease. Offspring production thus has critical implications for evolution via fitness, and ecology and conservation via demography. On page 1398 of this issue, Zanette et al. (1) show that the fear of predation can, by itself, strongly affect the number of offspring produced over an annual cycle by song sparrows (see the figure).

75 FR 41556 - Proposed Collection Renewal; Correction

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-16

... global education in the classroom. Estimated annual number of respondents: 300. Estimated average time to... the annual World Wise Schools Conference. The information is used as a record of attendance. 2. Title... global education in the classroom. Estimated annual number of responses: 300. Estimated average time to...

Seasonality of Carbonate Chemistry and CO2 Flux in a Northwestern Gulf of Mexico estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, H.; Hu, X.

2016-02-01

Estuaries are important CO2 source to the atmosphere and exhibit significant spatial and temporal variability. Currently, relatively little is known regarding the role of subtropical semiarid estuaries in the carbon cycle and their carbonate chemistry. In this study we examined seasonality of carbonate system and CO2 flux in the Mission-Aransas estuary, a shallow subtropical semiarid estuary in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico, during a one-year period (05/2014-04/2015). This estuary includes three interconnected coastal bays (Aransas, Copano, and Mesquite) that have little direct freshwater input from rivers. Average pH (total scale) was 8.017±0.096 and varied between 7.515 and 8.317. Annual mean total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) were 2183.2±180.4 µmol kg-1 and 2467.2±206.7 µmol·kg-1, respectively. Both DIC and TA decreased from June to October, 2014 with increasing salinity, then started to increase when salinity decreased after heavy precipitation evens in November, 2014. Contrary to DIC and TA patterns, the highest carbonate saturation state (4.89) with respect to aragonite (Ωaragonite) was observed in August 2014, and the lowest (0.20) in March 2015. Overall, high Ωaragonite (>4.0) occurred in hypersaline seawater (salinity>35). Calculated annual average pCO2 was 487±138 µatm, with the annual high occurring in early summer (May to June, 2014, 544±76 µatm) and annual low at 352±33 µatm in winter (January to February, 2015). During the flooding period from January to April, 2015, DIC and TA decreased dramatically while pCO2 first decreased to below the atmosphere level and then increased with maximum level reaching nearly 1700 µatm, indicating a trophic state transition during the development and relaxation periods of the flood. Average annual CO2 flux in this estuary was estimated to be 7.0±2.0 109g-C·yr-1. The highest CO2 efflux (20.6±10.9 mmol·m-2·d-1) occurred in August, 2014, and this estuary turned to a CO2 sink (-1.9±0.6 mmol·m-2·d-1) briefly in February, 2015.

Ionospheric winter anomaly and annual anomaly observed from Formosat-3/COSMIC Radio Occultation observations during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sai Gowtam, V.; Tulasi Ram, S.

2017-10-01

Ionospheric winter and annual anomalies have been investigated during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 using high-resolution global 3D - data of the FORMOSAT - 3/COSMIC (Formosa satellite - 3/Constellation Observing System for Meterology, Ionosphere and Climate) radio occultation observations. Our detailed analysis shows that the occurrence of winter anomaly at low-latitudes is confined only to the early morning to afternoon hours, whereas, the winter anomaly at mid-latitudes is almost absent at all local times during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. Further, in the topside ionosphere (altitudes of 400 km and above), the winter anomaly is completely absent at all local times. In contrast, the ionospheric annual anomaly is consistently observed at all local times and altitudes during this ascending phase of solar cycle 24. The annual anomaly exhibits strong enhancements over southern EIA crest latitudes during day time and around Weddle Sea Anomaly (WSA) region during night times. The global mean annual asymmetry index is also computed to understand the altitudinal variation. The global mean AI maximizes around 300-500 km altitudes during the low solar active periods (2008-10), whereas it extends up to 600 km during moderate to high (2011) solar activity period. These findings from our study provide new insights to the current understanding of the annual anomaly.

Criterion 6, indicator 37 : average wage rates, annual average income, and annual injury rates in major forest employment categories

Treesearch

Kenneth Skog; Susan J. Alexander; John Bergstrom; Ken Cordell; Elizabeth Hill; James Howard; Rebecca Westby

2011-01-01

Average annual incomes for forest management and protection includes salaries for full-time permanent employees of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, which have increased from a median of $41,300 in 1992 to $48,200 in 2000, to $50,500 in 2006 (all in 2005$). Salary of full-time permanent employees in state forestry agencies in 1998, for entry level...

Effects of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray cycles on the modulation of the annual average temperature at two sites in southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frigo, Everton; Antonelli, Francesco; da Silva, Djeniffer S. S.; Lima, Pedro C. M.; Pacca, Igor I. G.; Bageston, José V.

2018-04-01

Quasi-periodic variations in solar activity and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on decadal and bidecadal timescales have been suggested as a climate forcing mechanism for many regions on Earth. One of these regions is southern Brazil, where the lowest values during the last century were observed for the total geomagnetic field intensity at the Earth's surface. These low values are due to the passage of the center of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA), which crosses the Brazilian territory from east to west following a latitude of ˜ 26°. In areas with low geomagnetic intensity, such as the SAMA, the incidence of GCRs is increased. Consequently, possible climatic effects related to the GCRs tend to be maximized in this region. In this work, we investigate the relationship between the ˜ 11-year and ˜ 22-year cycles that are related to solar activity and GCRs and the annual average temperature recorded between 1936 and 2014 at two weather stations, both located near a latitude of 26° S but at different longitudes. The first of these stations (Torres - TOR) is located in the coastal region, and the other (Iraí - IRA) is located in the interior, around 450 km from the Atlantic Ocean. Sunspot data and the solar modulation potential for cosmic rays were used as proxies for the solar activity and the GCRs, respectively. Our investigation of the influence of decadal and bidecadal cycles in temperature data was carried out using the wavelet transform coherence (WTC) spectrum. The results indicate that periodicities of 11 years may have continuously modulated the climate at TOR via a nonlinear mechanism, while at IRA, the effects of this 11-year modulation period were intermittent. Four temperature maxima, separated by around 20 years, were detected in the same years at both weather stations. These temperature maxima are almost coincident with the maxima of the odd solar cycles. Furthermore, these maxima occur after transitions from even to odd solar cycles, that is, after some years of intense GCR flux. The obtained results offer indirect mathematical evidence that solar activity and GCR variations contributed to climatic changes in southern Brazil during the last century. A comparison of the results obtained for the two weather stations indicates that the SAMA also contributes indirectly to these temperature variations. The contribution of other mechanisms also related to solar activity cannot be excluded.

Methane emissions to the troposphere from the Amazon floodplain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Devol, Allen H.; Richey, Jeffrey E.; Clark, Wayne A.; King, Stagg L.; Martinelli, Luiz A.

1988-01-01

The magnitudes of CH4 emissions to the troposphere from the Amazon River floodplain and the mechanism of these emissions were investigated using the data of 94 individual flux measurements made along a 1700-km stretch of the river during July/August 1985. The overall average rate of CH4 emission from wetlands was found to be 390 mg CH4/sq m per day, with the highest emissions (590 mg CH4/sq m per day) attributed to the water surfaces covered by aquatic macrophytes. Ebullition was the dominant mechanism of emission, accounting for 85 percent of the total. Surface-water CH4 concentrations were highly supersaturated, averaging 6.4 micromolar. The annual emission of CH4 from the Amazon Basin to the troposphere, estimated from the area and the known emission rate, is about 10 CH4 Tg/yr, indicating the importance of the area in the global atmospheric CH4 cycle.

50 CFR 218.31 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...); (x) Melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) False killer... annually); (xiv) Pygmy killer whale (Ferresa attenuatta)—50 (an average of 10 annually); (xv) Rough-toothed... method of take and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter...

50 CFR 218.31 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...); (x) Melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) False killer... annually); (xiv) Pygmy killer whale (Ferresa attenuatta)—50 (an average of 10 annually); (xv) Rough-toothed... method of take and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter...

Diel and seasonal nitrous oxide fluxes determined by floating chamber and gas transfer equation methods in agricultural irrigation watersheds in southeast China.

PubMed

Wu, Shuang; Chen, Jie; Li, Chen; Kong, Delei; Yu, Kai; Liu, Shuwei; Zou, Jianwen

2018-02-07

Agricultural nitrate leaching and runoff incurs high nitrogen loads in agricultural irrigation watersheds, constituting one of important sources of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Two independent sampling campaigns of N 2 O flux measurement over diel cycles and N 2 O flux measurements once a week over annual cycles were carried out in an agricultural irrigation watershed in southeast China using floating chamber (chamber-based) and gas transfer equation (model-based) methods. The diel and seasonal patterns of N 2 O fluxes did not differ between the two measurement methods. The diel variation in N 2 O fluxes was characterized by the pattern that N 2 O fluxes were greater during nighttime than daytime periods with a single flux peak at midnight. The diel variation in N 2 O fluxes was closely associated with water environment and chemistry. The time interval of 9:00-11:00 a.m. was identified to be the sampling time best representing daily N 2 O flux measurements in agricultural irrigation watersheds. Seasonal N 2 O fluxes showed large variation, with some flux peaks corresponding to agricultural irrigation and drainage episodes and heavy rainfall during the crop-growing period of May to November. On average, N 2 O fluxes calculated by model-based methods were 27% lower than those determined by the chamber-based techniques over diel or annual cycles. Overall, more measurement campaigns are highly needed to assess regional agricultural N 2 O budget with low uncertainties.

Assessment of variability in the hydrological cycle of the Loess Plateau, China: examining dependence structures of hydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, A.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Investigating variability in dependence structures of hydrological processes is of critical importance for developing an understanding of mechanisms of hydrological cycles in changing environments. In focusing on this topic, present work involves the following: (1) identifying and eliminating serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity in monthly streamflow (Q), precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) series using the ARMA-GARCH model (ARMA: autoregressive moving average; GARCH: generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity); (2) describing dependence structures of hydrological processes using partial copula coupled with the ARMA-GARCH model and identifying their variability via copula-based likelihood-ratio test method; and (3) determining conditional probability of annual Q under different climate scenarios on account of above results. This framework enables us to depict hydrological variables in the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity and to examine dependence structures of hydrological processes while excluding the influence of covariates by using partial copula-based ARMA-GARCH model. Eight major catchments across the Loess Plateau (LP) are used as study regions. Results indicate that (1) The occurrence of change points in dependence structures of Q and P (PE) varies across the LP. Change points of P-PE dependence structures in all regions almost fully correspond to the initiation of global warming, i.e., the early 1980s. (3) Conditional probabilities of annual Q under various P and PE scenarios are estimated from the 3-dimensional joint distribution of (Q, P and PE) based on the above change points. These findings shed light on mechanisms of the hydrological cycle and can guide water supply planning and management, particularly in changing environments.

Annual nitrate drawdown observed by SOCCOM profiling floats and the relationship to annual net community production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Kenneth S.; Plant, Joshua N.; Dunne, John P.; Talley, Lynne D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-08-01

Annual nitrate cycles have been measured throughout the pelagic waters of the Southern Ocean, including regions with seasonal ice cover and southern hemisphere subtropical zones. Vertically resolved nitrate measurements were made using in situ ultraviolet spectrophotometer (ISUS) and submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzer (SUNA) optical nitrate sensors deployed on profiling floats. Thirty-one floats returned 40 complete annual cycles. The mean nitrate profile from the month with the highest winter nitrate minus the mean profile from the month with the lowest nitrate yields the annual nitrate drawdown. This quantity was integrated to 200 m depth and converted to carbon using the Redfield ratio to estimate annual net community production (ANCP) throughout the Southern Ocean south of 30°S. A well-defined, zonal mean distribution is found with highest values (3-4 mol C m-2 yr-1) from 40 to 50°S. Lowest values are found in the subtropics and in the seasonal ice zone. The area weighted mean was 2.9 mol C m-2 yr-1 for all regions south of 40°S. Cumulative ANCP south of 50°S is 1.3 Pg C yr-1. This represents about 13% of global ANCP in about 14% of the global ocean area.