Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, W. R.; Hashim, M.

2015-03-01

The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

Productivity, mortality, and population trends of wolves in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

1977-01-01

Population parameters, mortality causes, and mechanisms of a population decline were studied in wolves (Canis lupus lycaon) from 1968 to 1976 in the Superior National Forest. The main method was aerial radio-tracking of 129 wolves and their packmates. Due to a decline in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the wolf population decreased during most of the study. Average annual productivity varied from 1.5 to 3.3 pups per litter, and annual mortality rates from 7 to 65 percent. Malnutrition and intraspecific strife accounted equally for 58 percent of the mortality; human causes accounted for the remainder. As wolf numbers began to decline, pup starvation became apparent, followed by lower pup production, and then by increased intraspecific strife. At higher densities, adult pack wolves were the most secure members of the population, but as the population declined, they became the least secure because of intraspecific strife.

The CERAD Neuropsychologic Battery Total Score and the progression of Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Rossetti, Heidi C; Munro Cullum, C; Hynan, Linda S; Lacritz, Laura H

2010-01-01

To establish the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) neuropsychologic battery as a valid measure of cognitive progression in Alzheimer disease (AD) by deriving annualized CERAD Total Change Scores and corresponding confidence intervals in AD and controls from which to define clinically meaningful change. Subjects included 383 normal control (NC) and 655 AD subjects with serial data from the CERAD registry database. Annualized CERAD Total Change Scores were derived and Reliable Change Indexes (RCIs) calculated to establish statistically reliable change values. CERAD Change Scores were compared with annualized change scores from the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating Scale (CDR) Sum of Boxes, and Blessed Dementia Rating Scale (BDRS). For the CERAD Total Score, the AD sample showed significantly greater decline than the NC sample over the 4-year interval, with AD subjects declining an average of 22.2 points compared with the NCs' improving an average 2.8 points from baseline to last visit [Group x Time interaction [F(4,1031)=246.08, P<0.001)]. By Visit 3, the majority of AD subjects (65.2%) showed a degree of cognitive decline that fell outside the RCI. CERAD Change Scores significantly correlated (P<0.001) with MMSE (r=-0.66), CDR (r=-0.42), and BDRS (r=-0.38) change scores. Results support the utility of the CERAD Total Score as a measure of AD progression and provide comparative data for annualized change in CERAD Total Score and other summary measures.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles.

PubMed

Vourlitis, George L; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration (E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52% of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42% of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlitis, George L.; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration ( E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52 % of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42 % of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Single-treatment porcine zona pellucida immunocontraception associated with reduction of a population of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus).

PubMed

Rutberg, Allen T; Naugle, Ricky E; Verret, Frank

2013-12-01

Previous reports have demonstrated gradual reductions of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations through immunocontraception, with stabilization occurring after 2-4 yr of treatment, and subsequent reductions of 6-10% annually. These studies employed porcine zona pellucida (PZP) vaccines that required two initial treatments and annual retreatments. From 2005 to 2010, 258 adult and yearling female deer on Fripp Island, South Carolina, were treated with one of several PZP preparations designed to produce 2+ yr of effective contraception with a single treatment. These included several preparations of SpayVac and of native PZP-adjuvant emulsion plus PZP and QA-21 in timed-release pellets. Deer were chemically immobilized, ear-tagged, and administered initial treatments by hand in February-March. Some treated deer were boosted remotely with PZP-adjuvant emulsion 1.5 - 4.5 yr after initial treatments. Ground-based distance sampling was used to estimate deer population density at Fripp Island, a resort community, and at a relatively undeveloped neighboring control site, Hunting Island. Most vaccine preparations tested reduced fawning rates by 75% to 95% for at least 1 yr. From 2005 to 2011, deer density on Fripp Island declined by 50%, from 72 deer/km(2) to 36 deer/km(2), an average annual reduction of 11%. In contrast, population density on the Hunting Island control site fluctuated between 2005 and 2011, averaging 23 deer/km(2) (range, 19-28 deer/km(2)). Population declines on Fripp Island were associated with an increase in the proportion of treated females and with a progressive decrease in winter fawn:doe ratios, from 1.21 fawns/doe in 2005 to 0.19 fawns/doe in 2010. Winter fawn:doe ratios averaged 1.36 fawns/doe (range, 0.84 - 1.62 fawns/doe) at the Hunting Island control site. Annual survivorship averaged approximately 79% among ear-tagged females. The rate at which deer populations diminished in association with PZP treatments on Fripp Island was higher than that seen at other study sites, although the reasons for the more rapid decline on Fripp Island are not well understood.

Association Between Gun Law Reforms and Intentional Firearm Deaths in Australia, 1979-2013.

PubMed

Chapman, Simon; Alpers, Philip; Jones, Michael

2016-07-19

Rapid-fire weapons are often used by perpetrators in mass shooting incidents. In 1996 Australia introduced major gun law reforms that included a ban on semiautomatic rifles and pump-action shotguns and rifles and also initiated a program for buyback of firearms. To determine whether enactment of the 1996 gun laws and buyback program were followed by changes in the incidence of mass firearm homicides and total firearm deaths. Observational study using Australian government statistics on deaths caused by firearms (1979-2013) and news reports of mass shootings in Australia (1979-May 2016). Changes in intentional firearm death rates were analyzed with negative binomial regression, and data on firearm-related mass killings were compared. Implementation of major national gun law reforms. Changes in mass fatal shooting incidents (defined as ≥5 victims, not including the perpetrator) and in trends of rates of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and suicides, and total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population. From 1979-1996 (before gun law reforms), 13 fatal mass shootings occurred in Australia, whereas from 1997 through May 2016 (after gun law reforms), no fatal mass shootings occurred. There was also significant change in the preexisting downward trends for rates of total firearm deaths prior to vs after gun law reform. From 1979-1996, the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9) per 100,000 population (average decline of 3% per year; annual trend, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.963-0.976), whereas from 1997-2013 (after gun law reforms), the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) per 100,000 population (average decline of 4.9% per year; annual trend, 0.951; 95% CI, 0.940-0.962), with a ratio of trends in annual death rates of 0.981 (95% CI, 0.968-0.993). There was a statistically significant acceleration in the preexisting downward trend for firearm suicide (ratio of trends, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.970-0.993), but this was not statistically significant for firearm homicide (ratio of trends, 0.975; 95% CI, 0.949-1.001). From 1979-1996, the mean annual rate of total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths was 10.6 (95% CI, 10.0-11.2) per 100,000 population (average increase of 2.1% per year; annual trend, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.016-1.026), whereas from 1997-2013, the mean annual rate was 11.8 (95% CI, 11.3-12.3) per 100,000 (average decline of 1.4% per year; annual trend, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.980-0.993), with a ratio of trends of 0.966 (95% CI, 0.958-0.973). There was no evidence of substitution of other lethal methods for suicides or homicides. Following enactment of gun law reforms in Australia in 1996, there were no mass firearm killings through May 2016. There was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997 but also a decline in total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths of a greater magnitude. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to the gun law reforms.

Modeling of geomagnetic field secular variations observed in the Balkan area for purposes of regional topographic mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metodiev, Metodi; Trifonova, Petya; Buchvarov, Ivan

2014-05-01

The most significant of the Earth's magnetic field elements is the geomagnetic declination, which is widely used in geodesy, cartography and their associated navigational systems. The geomagnetic declination is incorporated in the naval navigation maps and is used in the navigation process. It is also a very important factor for aviation where declination data have major importance for every airport (civil or military). As the geomagnetic field changes with time but maps of the geomagnetic declination are not published annually and are reduced to an epoch in the past, it is necessary to define two additional parameters in the maps, needed to determine the value of the geomagnetic declination for a particular moment in the future: 1) estimated value of the annual declination variation and 2) a table with the average diurnal variation of the declination for a given month and hour. The goal of our research is to analyze the annual mean values of geomagnetic declination on the territory of the Balkan Peninsula for obtaining of a best fitting model of that parameter which can be used for prediction of the declination value for the next 10 years. The same study was performed in 1990 for the purposes of Bulgarian declination map's preparation. As a result, a linear model of the declination annual variation was obtained for the neighboring observatories and repeat stations data, and a map of the obtained values for the Bulgarian territory was drawn. We use the latest version of the GFZ Reference Internal Magnetic Model (GRIMM-3.0) to compare the magnetic field evolution predicted by that model between 2001 and 2010 to the data collected in five independent geomagnetic observatories in the Balkan region (PAG, SUA, PEG, IZN, GCK) over the same time interval. We conclude that the geomagnetic core field secular variation in this area is well described by the global model. The observed small-scale differences might indicate induced lithospheric anomalies but it is still an open question in geomagnetism whether induction by the slowly changing main field in conductive structures in the lithosphere is a measurable part of what is observed as secular variation at and above the Earth's surface. In our study we test different time-scale periods and different order polynomials to create the most appropriate prediction model and to estimate our results. We find that linear models which are used to determine the annual declination variation in cartography provide enough accurate information for the declination map's users.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frost, K.J.; Lowry, L.F.

In the weeks following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) harbor seals, Phocavitulina richardsi, swam through oil and inhaled aromatic hydrocarbons as they breathed at the air/water interface. Concentrations of fluorescent aromatic compounds in bile clearly indicated that most seals from oiled areas had been exposed to hydrocarbons. Before the EVOS, harbor seals in Prince William Sound were declining at an average annual rate of 12% in both oiled and unoiled areas. Aerial surveys in 1989 indicated a 43% decline at oiled sites versus an 11% decline at unoiled sites. By 1992, there were still 34% fewer seals at oiledmore » sites than before the spill.« less

Decreasing trends of suspended particulate matter and PM2.5 concentrations in Tokyo, 1990-2010.

PubMed

Hara, Kunio; Homma, Junichi; Tamura, Kenji; Inoue, Mariko; Karita, Kanae; Yano, Eiji

2013-06-01

In Tokyo, the annual average suspended particulate matter (SPM) and PM2.5 concentrations have decreased in the past two decades. The present study quantitatively evaluated these decreasing trends using data from air-pollution monitoring stations. Annual SPM and PM2.5 levels at 83 monitoring stations and hourly SPM and PM2.5 levels at four monitoring stations in Tokyo, operated by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, were used for analysis, together with levels of co-pollutants and meteorological conditions. Traffic volume in Tokyo was calculated from the total traveling distance of vehicles as reported by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism. High positive correlations between SPM levels and nitrogen oxide levels, sulfur dioxide levels, and traffic volume were determined. The annual average SPM concentration declined by 62.6%from 59.4 microg/m3 in 1994 to 22.2 microg/m3 in 2010, and PM2.5 concentration also declined by 49.8% from 29.3 microg/m3 in 2001 to 14.7 microg/m3 in 2010. Likewise, the frequencies of hourly average SPM and PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the daily guideline values have significantly decreased since 2001 and the hourly average SPM or PM2.5 concentrations per traffic volume for each time period have also significantly decreased since 2001. However SPM and PM2.5 concentrations increased at some monitoring stations between 2004 and 2006 and from 2009 despite strengthened environmental regulations and improvements in vehicle engine performance. The annual average SPM and PM2.5 concentrations were positively correlated with traffic volumes and in particular with the volume of diesel trucks. These results suggest that the decreasing levels of SPM and PM2.5 in Tokyo may be attributable to decreased traffic volumes, along with the effects of stricter governmental regulation and improvements to vehicle engine performance, including the fitting of devices for exhaust emission reduction.

Differential declines in syphilis-related mortality in the United States, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Barragan, Noel C; Moschetti, Kristin; Smith, Lisa V; Sorvillo, Frank; Kuo, Tony

2017-04-01

After reaching an all time low in 2000, the rate of syphilis in the United States has been steadily increasing. Parallel benchmarking of the disease's mortality burden has not been undertaken. Using ICD-10 classification, all syphilis-related deaths in the national Multiple Cause of Death dataset were examined for the period 2000-2014. Descriptive statistics and age-adjusted mortality rates were generated. Poisson regression was performed to analyze trends over time. A matched case-control analysis was conducted to assess the associations between syphilis-related deaths and comorbid conditions listed in the death records. A total of 1,829 deaths were attributed to syphilis; 32% (n = 593) identified syphilis as the underlying cause of death. Most decedents were men (60%) and either black (48%) or white (39%). Decedents aged ≥85 years had the highest average mortality rate (0.47 per 100,000 population; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.52). For the sampled period, the average annual decline in mortality was -2.90% (95% CI, -3.93% to -1.87%). However, the average annual percent change varied across subgroups of interest. Declines in U.S. syphilis mortality suggest early detection and improved treatment access likely helped attenuate disease progression; however, increases in the disease rate since 2000 may be offsetting the impact of these advancements. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Erosion of State Alcohol Excise Taxes in the United States.

PubMed

Naimi, Timothy S; Blanchette, Jason G; Xuan, Ziming; Chaloupka, Francis J

2018-01-01

In the United States, excessive alcohol consumption is responsible for 88,000 deaths annually and cost $249 billion, or $2.05 per drink, in 2010. Specific excise taxes, the predominant form of alcohol taxation in the United States, are based on the volume of alcohol sold rather than a percentage of price and can thus degrade over time because of inflation. The objective of this study was to describe changes in inflation-adjusted state alcohol excise taxes on a beverage-specific basis. State-level data on specific excise taxes were obtained from the Alcohol Policy Information System and the Tax Foundation. Excise tax rates were converted into the tax per standard U.S. drink (14 g of ethanol) for beer, wine, and distilled spirits, and converted into 2015 dollars using annual Consumer Price Index data. Across U.S. states, the average state alcohol excise tax per drink in 2015 was $0.03 for beer, $0.05 for distilled spirits, and $0.03 for wine. From 1991 to 2015, the average inflation-adjusted (in 2015 dollars) state alcohol excise tax rate declined 30% for beer, 32% for distilled spirits, and 27% for wine. Percentage declines in state excise taxes since their inception were more than twice as large as those from 1991 to 2015. In 2015, average state specific excise taxes were $0.05 or less per standard drink across all beverage types and have experienced substantial inflation-adjusted declines.

Climate change and runoff in south-western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silberstein, R. P.; Aryal, S. K.; Durrant, J.; Pearcey, M.; Braccia, M.; Charles, S. P.; Boniecka, L.; Hodgson, G. A.; Bari, M. A.; Viney, N. R.; McFarlane, D. J.

2012-12-01

SummaryThis paper presents the results of computer simulations of runoff from 13 major fresh and brackish river basins in south-western Australia (SWA) under climate projections obtained from 15 GCMs with three future global warming scenarios equivalent to global temperature rises of 0.7 °C, 1.0 °C and 1.3 °C by 2030. The objective was to apply an efficient methodology, consistent across a large region, to examine the implications of the best available projections in climate trends for future surface water resources. An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models was calibrated on stream flow data from 1975 to 2007 from 106 gauged catchments distributed throughout the basins of the study area. The sensitivity of runoff to projected changes in mean annual rainfall is examined using the climate 'elasticity' concept. Averaged across the study area, all 15 GCMs project declines in rainfall under all global warming scenarios with a median decline of 8% resulting in a median decline in runoff of 25%. Such uniformity in projections from GCMs is unusual. Over SWA the average annual runoff under the 5th wettest and 5th driest of the 45 projections of the 2030 climate declines by 10 and 42%, respectively. Under the 5th driest projection the runoff decline ranges from 53% in the northern region to 40% in the southern region. Strong regional variations in climate sensitivity are found with the proportional decline in runoff greatest in the northern region and the greatest volumetric declines in the wetter basins in the south. Since the mid 1970s stream flows into the major water supply reservoirs in SWA have declined by more than 50% following a 16% rainfall reduction. This has already had major implications for water resources planning and for the preservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the region. Our results indicate that this reduction in runoff is likely to continue if future climate projections eventuate.

A prospective study of decline in lung function in relation to welding emissions.

PubMed

Christensen, Sigve W; Bonde, Jens Peter; Omland, Oyvind

2008-02-26

Numerous cross-sectional studies have reported reduced lung function among welders but limitations of exposure assessment and design preclude causal inference. The aim of this study was to investigate if long-term exposure to welding fume particulates accelerates the age-related decline in lung function. Lung function was measured by spirometry in 1987 and 2004 among 68 steel welders and 32 non-welding production workers. The decline in forced expiratory volume (FEV1) was analysed in relation to cumulated exposure to fume particulates among welders during the follow-up period. Among smokers the decline in FEV1 through follow-up period was in average 150 ml larger among welders than non-welders while the difference was negligible among non-smokers. The results did not reach statistical significance and within welders the decline in lung function was not related to the cumulated welding particulate exposure during follow-up period Long-term exposure to welding emissions may accelerate the age-related decline of lung function but at exposure levels in the range of 1.5 to 6.5 mg/m3 the average annual excess loss of FEV1 is unlikely to exceed 25 ml in smokers and 10 ml in non-smokers.

Exploring the causes of Colorado River streamflow declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Udall, B. H.

2016-12-01

As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River (CR) is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized Apr-Sep flow at Lee's Ferry declined by 18.4%, a number that is closely matched (19.8%) by reconstructions for the same period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. However, basin-average annual precipitation over that period declined by only 4.4%. In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings (about 1.6°C over the 100-year record) for each of 24 sub-basins that make up the basin. We find that decreases in winter precipitation (the season that controls annual runoff) mostly occured in the northeast part of the basin while summer precipitation decreases (which have much less effect on annual runoff) occurred over much of the lower basin. Our model simulations suggest that about 2/3 of observed runoff declines are attributable to decreases in winter precipitation (most importantly, in the upper basin, where most of the basin's runoff is generated). The remaining 1/3 is attributable to warming temperatures. We also examine what appear to be changing characteristics of droughts in the basin. Compared with a prolonged drought in the 1960s, which was characterized by abnormally low precipitation and cool temperatures, temperatures during the ongoing millennial drought have been much warmer, but winter precipitation anomalies have been only slightly negative. During the 2000s drought, the basin-wide runoff anomaly has been about -3.8 km3/yr, with four sub-basins in the northeastern part of the basin accounting for about 2/3 of the annual runoff anomaly.

Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loery, G.; Nichols, J.D.

1985-01-01

The dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958-1983 using capture-recapture methods. The Jolly-Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was ?160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was ?57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was ?0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear-cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short-term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear-cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear-cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

Wind conditions on migration influence the annual survival of a neotropical migrant, the western yellow-breasted chat (Icteria virens auricollis).

PubMed

Huang, Andrew C; Bishop, Christine A; McKibbin, René; Drake, Anna; Green, David J

2017-08-10

Long-distance migratory birds in North America have undergone precipitous declines over the past half-century. Although the trend is clear, for many migrating species underpinning the exact causes poses a challenge to conservation due to the numerous stressors that they encounter. Climate conditions during all phases of their annual cycle can have important consequences for their survival. Here, using 15 years of capture-recapture dataset, we determined the effects of various climate factors during the breeding, wintering, and migrating stages on the annual survival of a western yellow-breasted chat (Icteria virens auricollis) population breeding in southwestern Canada. El Niño effects over the entire annual cycle had little influence on the annual apparent survival of yellow-breasted chats. However, we found evidence that wind conditions during migration, specifically average westerly wind speed or the frequency of storm events, had significant adverse effects on adult annual apparent survival. In comparison, precipitation levels on wintering ground had little to no influence on adult annual apparent survival, whereas growing degree days on the breeding ground had moderate but positive effects. In the face of climate change and its predicted impacts on climate processes, understanding the influence of weather conditions on the survival of migrating birds can allow appropriate conservation strategies to be adopted for chats and other declining neotropical migrants.

Water-level declines in the Madison area, Dane County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLeod, R.S.

1978-01-01

The effects of anticipated pumping were examined with the use of a digital model. The maximum water-level decline from the beginning of pumping in 1882 until 1975 was about 75 feet in the sandstone aquifer and 10 to 20 feet in the upper aquifer. Additional declines between 1975 and 2000 were computed to be 10 to 30 feet in the sandstone aquifer and 5 to 10 feet in the upper aquifer. The average annual streamflow of the Yahara River at the McFarland gaging station was reduced 32 percent from the beginning of pumping to 1975. An additional 7 percent reduction in streamflow was computed for the period 1975 to 2000.

Evaluating Ultraviolet Radiation Exposures Determined from TOMS Satellite Data at Sites of Amphibian Declines in Central and South America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Many amphibian species have experienced substantial population declines, or have disappeared altogether, during the last several decades at a number of amphibian census sites in Central and South America. This study addresses the use of satellite-derived trends in solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B; 280-320 nm) radiation exposures at these sites over the last two decades, and is intended to demonstrate a role for satellite observations in determining whether UV-B radiation is a contributing factor in amphibian declines. UV-B radiation levels at the Earth's surface were derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data, typically acquired daily since 1979. These data were used to calculate the daily erythemal (sunburning) UV-B, or UV-B(sub ery), exposures at the latitude, longitude, and elevation of each of 20 census sites. The annually averaged UV-B(sub ery) dose, as well as the maximum values, have been increasing in both Central and South America, with higher levels received at the Central American sites. The annually averaged UV-B(sub ery) exposures increased significantly from 1979-1998 at all 11 Central American sites examined (r(exp 2) = 0.60 - 0.79; P<=0.015), with smaller but significant increases at five of the nine South American sites (r(exp 2) = 0.24-0.42; P<=0.05). The contribution of the highest UV-B(sub ery) exposure levels (>= 6750 J/sq m*d) to the annual UV-B(sub ery) total has increased from approx. 5% to approx. 15% in Central America over the 19 year period, but actual daily exposures for each species are unknown. Synergy among UV-B radiation and other factors, especially those associated with alterations of water chemistry (e.g., acidification) in aqueous habitats is discussed. These findings justify further research concerning whether UV-B(sub ery) radiation plays a role in amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Mining review

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCartan, L.; Morse, D.E.; Plunkert, P.A.; Sibley, S.F.

2004-01-01

The average annual growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) from the third quarter of 2001 through the second quarter of 2003 in the United States was about 2.6 percent. GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters of 2003 were about 8 percent and 4 percent, respectively. The upward trends in many sectors of the U.S. economy in 2003, however, were shared by few of the mineral materials industries. Annual output declined in most nonfuel mining and mineral processing industries, although there was an upward turn toward yearend as prices began to increase.

Ground-water level data for North Carolina, 1988-90

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strickland, A.G.; Coble, R.W.; Edwards, L.A.; Pope, B.F.

1992-01-01

Continuous and periodic water-level measurements were made in 59 key wells throughout North Carolina. Additional measurements were made in 112 supplementary wells completed in Coastal Plain aquifers of the State. Changes in groundwater storage are shown in 3-year and 10-year hydrographs of selected wells in the State. The water table in the shallow aquifers was higher throughout most of 1989 and early 1990 than in 1988, indicating that these aquifers were sufficiently recharged by precipitation to replenish the late 1987-88 deficit in groundwater storage. Water levels in the heavily pumped Coastal Plain aquifers declined as a result of water being withdrawn from aquifer storage. Record low water levels were measured in 8 to 13 wells completed in the Castle Hayne aquifer and in 6 of 8 wells in the Peedee aquifer; the maximum annual declines during 1988-90 averaged 3.3 and 1.6 ft/yr, respectively, for these two aquifers. All wells in the Black Creek, upper Cape Fear, and lower Cape Fear aquifers had record low water levels during 1988-90, with maximum annual declines averaging 9.0, 2.2, and 2.6 ft/yr, respectively. Water levels in two of three wells in the Yorktown aquifer did not show a general downward trend during 1988-90, although water levels declined in the third well, reaching a record low in 1990. The effects of water withdrawals from major pumping centers in the North Carolina Coastal Plain are shown in potentiometric-surface maps of the Black Creek and lower Cape Fear aquifers.

Ground-Water Storage Change and Land Subsidence in Tucson Basin and Avra Valley, Southeastern Arizona, 1998-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pool, Donald R.; Anderson, Mark T.

2008-01-01

Gravity and land subsidence were measured annually at wells and benchmarks within two networks in Tucson Basin and Avra Valley from 1998 to 2002. Both networks are within the Tucson Active Management Area. Annual estimates of ground-water storage change, ground-water budgets, and land subsidence were made based on the data. Additionally, estimates of specific yield were made at wells within the monitored region. Increases in gravity and water-level rises followed above-average natural recharge during winter 1998 in Tucson Basin. Overall declining gravity and water-level trends from 1999 to 2002 in Tucson Basin reflected general declining ground-water storage conditions and redistribution of the recent recharge throughout a larger region of the aquifer. The volume of stored ground-water in the monitored portion of Tucson Basin increased 200,000 acre-feet from December 1997 to February 1999; however, thereafter an imbalance in ground-water pumpage in excess of recharge led to a net storage loss for the monitoring period by February 2002. Ground-water storage in Avra Valley increased 70,000 acre-feet during the monitoring period, largely as a result of artificial and incidental recharge in the monitored region. The water-budget for the combined monitored regions of Tucson Basin and Avra Valley was dominated by about 460,000 acre-feet of recharge during 1998 followed by an average-annual recharge rate of about 80,000 acre-feet per year from 1999 to 2002. Above-average recharge during winter 1998, followed by average-annual deficit conditions, resulted in an overall balanced water budget for the monitored period. Monitored variations in storage compared well with simulated average-annual conditions, except for above-average recharge from 1998 to 1999. The difference in observed and simulated conditions indicate that ground-water flow models can be improved by including climate-related variations in recharge rates rather than invariable rates of average-annual recharge. Observed land-subsidence during the monitoring period was less than 1 inch except in the central part of Tucson Basin where land subsidence was about 2-3 inches. Correlations of gravity-based storage and water-level change at 37 wells were variable and illustrate the complex nature of the aquifer system. Storage and water-level variations were insufficient to estimate specific yield at many wells. Correlations at several wells were poor, inverse, or resulted in unreasonably large values of specific yield. Causes of anomalously correlated gravity and water levels include significant storage change in thick unsaturated zones, especially near major ephemeral channels, and multiple aquifers that are poorly connected hydraulically. Good correlation of storage and water-level change at 10 wells that were not near major streams where significant changes in unsaturated zone storage occur resulted in an average specific-yield value of 0.27.

First and recurrent ischaemic heart disease events continue to decline in New Zealand, 2005-2015.

PubMed

Grey, Corina; Jackson, Rod; Wells, Susan; Wu, Billy; Poppe, Katrina; White, Harvey; Chan, Wing Cheuk; Kerr, Andrew J

2018-01-01

To examine recent trends in first and recurrent ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths and hospitalisations. Using anonymous patient-linkage of routinely collected data, all New Zealanders aged 35-84 years who experienced an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems I(CD)-coded IHD hospitalisation and/or IHD death between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015 were identified. A 10-year look-back period was used to differentiate those experiencing first from recurrent events. Age-standardised hospitalisation and mortality rates were calculated for each calendar year and trends compared by sex and age. 160 109 people experienced at least one IHD event (259 678 hospitalisations and 35 548 deaths) over the 11-year study period, and there was a steady decline in numbers (from almost 24 000 in 2005 to just over 16 000 in 2015) and in age-standardised rates each year. With the exception of deaths in younger (35-64 years) women with prior IHD, there was a significant decline in IHD events in men and women of all ages, with and without a history of IHD. The decline in IHD mortality was greater for those experiencing a first rather than recurrent IHD event (3.8%-5.2% vs 0%-3.7% annually on average). In contrast, the decline in IHD hospitalisations was greater for those experiencing a recurrent compared with a first IHD event (5.6%-7.3% vs 3.2%-5.7% annually on average). The substantial decline in IHD hospitalisations and mortality observed in New Zealanders with and without prior IHD between 2005 and 2015 suggests that primary and secondary prevention efforts have been effective in reducing the occurrence of IHD events. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Description of 2005-10 domestic water use for selected U.S. cities and guidance for estimating domestic water use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kenny, Joan F.; Juracek, Kyle E.

2012-01-01

Domestic water-use and related socioeconomic and climatic data for 2005-10 were used in an analysis of 21 selected U.S. cities to describe recent domestic per capita water use, investigate variables that potentially affect domestic water use, and provide guidance for estimating domestic water use. Domestic water use may be affected by a combination of several factors. Domestic per capita water use for the selected cities ranged from a median annual average of 43 to 177 gallons per capita per day (gpcd). In terms of year-to-year variability in domestic per capita water use for the selected cities, the difference from the median ranged from ± 7 to ± 26 percent with an overall median variability of ± 14 percent. As a percentage of total annual water use, median annual domestic water use for the selected cities ranged from 33 to 71 percent with an overall median of 57 percent. Monthly production and water sales data were used to calculate daily per capita water use rates for the lowest 3 consecutive months (low-3) and the highest 3 consecutive months (high-3) of usage. Median low-3 domestic per capita water use for 16 selected cities ranged from 40 to 100 gpcd. Median high-3 domestic per capita water use for 16 selected cities ranged from 53 to 316 gpcd. In general, the median domestic water use as a percentage of the median total water use for 16 selected cities was similar for the low-3 and high-3 periods. Statistical analyses of combined data for the selected cities indicated that none of the socioeconomic variables, including cost of water, were potentially useful as determinants of domestic water use at the national level. However, specific socioeconomic variables may be useful for the estimation of domestic water use at the State or local level. Different socioeconomic variables may be useful in different States. Statistical analyses indicated that specific climatic variables may be useful for the estimation of domestic water use for some, but not all, of the selected cities. National average public supply per capita water use declined from 185 gpcd in 1990 to 171 gpcd in 2005. National average domestic delivery per capita water use declined from 105 gpcd in 1990 to 99 gpcd in 2005. Average State domestic delivery per capita water use ranged from 51 to 189 gpcd in 2005. The average annual total per capita water use in 19 selected cities that provided data for each year declined from 167 gpcd in 2006 to 145 gpcd in 2010. During this time period, average per capita water use measured during the low-3 period each year declined from 115 to 102 gpcd, and average per capita use measured during the high-3 period declined from 250 to 211 gpcd. Continued collection of data on water deliveries to domestic populations, as well as updated estimates of the population served by these deliveries, is recommended for determination of regional and temporal trends in domestic per capita water use. Declines in various measures of per capita water use have been observed in recent years for several States with municipal water use data-collection programs. Domestic self-supplied water use historically has not been metered. Estimates of self-supplied domestic water use are made using estimates of the population that is not served by public water suppliers and per capita coefficients. For 2005, the average State domestic self-supplied per capita use in the United States ranged from 50 to 206 gpcd. The median domestic self-supplied per capita use was 76 gpcd for States in which standard coefficients were used, and 98 gpcd for States in which coefficients were based on domestic deliveries from public supply. In specific areas with scarce resources or increasing numbers of households with private wells, an assessment of domestic water use may require metering of households or development of more specific per capita coefficients to estimate water demand.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming.

PubMed

DeVivo, Melia T; Edmunds, David R; Kauffman, Matthew J; Schumaker, Brant A; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J; Richards, Bryan J; Schätzl, Hermann M; Cornish, Todd E

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

PubMed Central

DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schätzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd E.

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations. PMID:29049389

Change in Estimated GFR Associates with Coronary Heart Disease and Mortality

PubMed Central

Matsushita, Kunihiro; Bash, Lori D.; Franceschini, Nora; Astor, Brad C.; Coresh, Josef

2009-01-01

Kidney function predicts cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, but little is known about the association of changes in estimated GFR (eGFR) with clinical outcomes. We investigated whether 3- and 9-yr changes in eGFR associated with risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality among 13,029 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. After adjustment for baseline covariates including eGFR in Cox proportional hazards models, the quartile of participants with the greatest annual decline (annual decline ≥5.65%) in eGFR were at significantly greater risk for CHD and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.30 [95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.52] and 1.22 [95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.41], respectively) compared with the third quartile (annual decline between 0.33 and 0.47%). We observed similar results when we analyzed 9-yr changes in eGFR. Adjustment for covariates at the second eGFR used to estimate change reduced the association with CHD but not with mortality. Among participants with stage 3 chronic kidney disease, an increase in eGFR during the first 3 yr also associated with a higher risk for mortality, perhaps as a result of clinical instability. In conclusion, a steeper than average decline in eGFR associates with a higher risk for CHD and all-cause mortality. Increases in eGFR among participants with chronic kidney disease associate with similar increased risks. PMID:19892932

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schatzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ= 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

PubMed

Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

2012-03-01

1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Potentiometric surfaces, summer 2013 and winter 2015, and select hydrographs for the Southern High Plains aquifer, Cannon Air Force Base, Curry County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collison, Jake

2016-04-07

Cannon Air Force Base (Cannon AFB) is located in the High Plains physiographic region of east-central New Mexico, about 5 miles west of Clovis, New Mexico. The area surrounding Cannon AFB is primarily used for agriculture, including irrigated cropland and dairies. The Southern High Plains aquifer is the principal source of water for Cannon AFB, for the nearby town of Clovis, and for local agriculture and dairies. The Southern High Plains aquifer in the vicinity of Cannon AFB consists of three subsurface geological formations: the Chinle Formation of Triassic age, the Ogallala Formation of Tertiary age, and the Blackwater Draw Formation of Quaternary age. The Ogallala Formation is the main water-yielding formation of the Southern High Plains aquifer. Groundwater-supplied, center-pivot irrigation dominates pumping from the Southern High Plains aquifer in the area surrounding Cannon AFB, where the irrigation season typically extends from early March through October. The U.S. Geological Survey has been monitoring groundwater levels in the vicinity of Cannon AFB since 1954 and has developed general potentiometric-surface maps that show groundwater flow from northwest to southeast in the study area. While previous potentiometric-surface maps show the general direction of groundwater flow, a denser well network is needed to show details of groundwater flow at a local scale. Groundwater levels were measured in 93 wells during summer 2013 and 100 wells during winter 2015.The summer and winter potentiometric-surface maps display the presence of what is interpreted to be a groundwater trough trending from the northwest to the southeast through the study area. This groundwater trough may be the hydraulic expression of a Tertiary-age paleochannel. Groundwater north of the trough flows in a southerly direction into the trough, and groundwater south of the trough flows in an easterly direction into the trough.During the 18-month period between summer 2013 and winter 2015, changes in groundwater levels ranged from a rise of 10.0 to a decline of 3.8 feet. The regions to the north and south of the groundwater trough contained the majority of the rises in groundwater levels, whereas the regions within the trough contained the majority of the declines in groundwater levels. In contrast, the long-term groundwater-level trend in wells with 20 to 60 years of record is a steady decline in average annual water levels, with declines ranging from 0.41 to 2.81 feet per year. Overall, the northwestern part of the study area exhibits the smallest average annual declines, while the southeastern part of the study area exhibits the largest average annual declines.

The effect of changes in sea surface temperature on linear growth of Porites coral in Ambon Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corvianawatie, Corry, E-mail: corvianawatie@students.itb.ac.id; Putri, Mutiara R., E-mail: mutiara.putri@fitb.itb.ac.id; Cahyarini, Sri Y., E-mail: yuda@geotek.lipi.go.id

Coral is one of the most important organisms in the coral reef ecosystem. There are several factors affecting coral growth, one of them is changes in sea surface temperature (SST). The purpose of this research is to understand the influence of SST variability on the annual linear growth of Porites coral taken from Ambon Bay. The annual coral linear growth was calculated and compared to the annual SST from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST v3b) model. Coral growth was calculated by using Coral X-radiograph Density System (CoralXDS) software. Coral sample X-radiographs were used as input data.more » Chronology was developed by calculating the coral’s annual growth bands. A pair of high and low density banding patterns observed in the coral’s X-radiograph represent one year of coral growth. The results of this study shows that Porites coral extents from 2001-2009 and had an average growth rate of 1.46 cm/year. Statistical analysis shows that the annual coral linear growth declined by 0.015 cm/year while the annual SST declined by 0.013°C/year. SST and the annual linear growth of Porites coral in the Ambon Bay is insignificantly correlated with r=0.304 (n=9, p>0.05). This indicates that annual SST variability does not significantly influence the linear growth of Porites coral from Ambon Bay. It is suggested that sedimentation load, salinity, pH or other environmental factors may affect annual linear coral growth.« less

The Influence of Large-Scale Airborne Particle Decline and Traffic-Related Exposure on Children’s Lung Function

PubMed Central

Sugiri, Dorothea; Ranft, Ulrich; Schikowski, Tamara; Krämer, Ursula

2006-01-01

Between 1991 and 2000, ambient air pollution in East Germany changed to resemble West German pollution levels: The concentration of total suspended particles (TSPs) decreased on a broad scale while traffic increased. During that time, we analyzed total lung capacity (TLC) and airway resistance (Raw) of East and West German children. We tested children 5–7 years of age (n = 2,574) with cooperation-independent body plethysmography in repeated cross sections. We used random-effect models to determine the mutually adjusted association between lung function and short-term and chronic particle exposure and its interaction with living near a busy road. Annual averages of TSPs declined from 77 to 44 μg/m3; averages on the day of investigation declined from 133 to 30 μg/m3. Differences in lung function between East and West German children vanished during the investigation time. The association of TSPs with Raw and TLC was stronger in children living > 50 m away from busy roads. East German children from this group had an Raw 2.5% higher [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.0–5.1%] per 40-μg/m3 increase of daily TSP averages. TLC decreased by 6.2% (95% CI, 0.04–11.6%) per 40-μg/m3 increase in annual mean TSPs, and this effect was equally pronounced in East and West Germany. TSP exposure decreased on a broad scale between 1991 and 2000. Lower concentrations of TSPs were associated with better measures of lung function in 6-year-old children. For children living near busy roads, this effect was diminished. PMID:16451868

Potentiometric surfaces and water-level trends in the Cockfield (upper Claiborne) aquifer in southern Arkansas and the Wilcox (lower Wilcox) aquifer of northeastern and southern Arkansas, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodgers, Kirk D.

2015-01-01

Linear regression analysis of long-term hydrographs was used to determine the mean annual water-level rise and decline in the Wilcox aquifer in the northeastern and southern areas of Arkansas. In the northeastern area, the mean annual water level declined in all seven counties. The mean annual declines ranged from -0.55 ft/yr in Craighead County to -1.46 ft/yr in St. Francis County. In the southern area, the annual rise and decline calculations for wells with over 20 years of records indicate rising and declining water levels in Clark, Hot Spring, and Nevada Counties. The mean annual water level declined in all counties except Hot Spring County.

Population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, Jason L.; Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Wilson, Heather M.; Morse, Julie A.

2009-01-01

Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of λ to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.

Nesting success of Northern Pintails on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.

1996-01-01

We studied nesting chronology and success of Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska during the summers of 1991-1993. We found a total of 795 nests during three annual searches of a 27.4 km2 area. Minimum nest density averaged 9.67 nests per km2. Nesting success varied among years and ranged from 43.12% in 1991 to 10.74% in 1993 (average 23.95%). Most nest loss was the result of predation and tidal flooding. Daily nest survival probability declined with nest initiation date in all three years and also varied with nest age in 1992. Clutch size averaged 7.63 ± 0.067 (SE) eggs per nest and was larger than reported for other populations of Northern Pintails. Clutch size declined during the 44-47 day nesting interval at a greater rate than reported for other populations of Northern Pintails. We conclude that sub-arctic and prairie nesting Northern Pintails have similar reproductive potentials.

Bat reproduction declines when conditions mimic climate change projections for western North America.

PubMed

Adams, Rick A

2010-08-01

Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.

Physical Activity and Change in Mammographic Density

PubMed Central

Conroy, Shannon M.; Butler, Lesley M.; Harvey, Danielle; Gold, Ellen B.; Sternfeld, Barbara; Oestreicher, Nina; Greendale, Gail A.; Habel, Laurel A.

2010-01-01

One potential mechanism by which physical activity may protect against breast cancer is by decreasing mammographic density. Percent mammographic density, the proportion of dense breast tissue area to total breast area, declines with age and is a strong risk factor for breast cancer. The authors hypothesized that women who were more physically active would have a greater decline in percent mammographic density with age, compared with less physically active women. The authors tested this hypothesis using longitudinal data (1996–2004) from 722 participants in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN), a multiethnic cohort of women who were pre- and early perimenopausal at baseline, with multivariable, repeated-measures linear regression analyses. During an average of 5.6 years, the mean annual decline in percent mammographic density was 1.1% (standard deviation = 0.1). A 1-unit increase in total physical activity score was associated with a weaker annual decline in percent mammographic density by 0.09% (standard error = 0.03; P = 0.01). Physical activity was inversely associated with the change in nondense breast area (P < 0.01) and not associated with the change in dense breast area (P = 0.17). Study results do not support the hypothesis that physical activity reduces breast cancer through a mechanism that includes reduced mammographic density. PMID:20354074

Global and regional emissions estimates of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH3CHF2) from in situ and air archive observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmonds, P. G.; Rigby, M.; Manning, A. J.; Lunt, M. F.; O'Doherty, S.; McCulloch, A.; Fraser, P. J.; Henne, S.; Vollmer, M. K.; Mühle, J.; Weiss, R. F.; Salameh, P. K.; Young, D.; Reimann, S.; Wenger, A.; Arnold, T.; Harth, C. M.; Krummel, P. B.; Steele, L. P.; Dunse, B. L.; Miller, B. R.; Lunder, C. R.; Hermansen, O.; Schmidbauer, N.; Saito, T.; Yokouchi, Y.; Park, S.; Li, S.; Yao, B.; Zhou, L. X.; Arduini, J.; Maione, M.; Wang, R. H. J.; Ivy, D.; Prinn, R. G.

2016-01-01

High frequency, in situ observations from 11 globally distributed sites for the period 1994-2014 and archived air measurements dating from 1978 onward have been used to determine the global growth rate of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH3CHF2). These observations have been combined with a range of atmospheric transport models to derive global emission estimates in a top-down approach. HFC-152a is a greenhouse gas with a short atmospheric lifetime of about 1.5 years. Since it does not contain chlorine or bromine, HFC-152a makes no direct contribution to the destruction of stratospheric ozone and is therefore used as a substitute for the ozone depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). The concentration of HFC-152a has grown substantially since the first direct measurements in 1994, reaching a maximum annual global growth rate of 0.84 ± 0.05 ppt yr-1 in 2006, implying a substantial increase in emissions up to 2006. However, since 2007, the annual rate of growth has slowed to 0.38 ± 0.04 ppt yr-1 in 2010 with a further decline to an annual average rate of growth in 2013-2014 of -0.06 ± 0.05 ppt yr-1. The annual average Northern Hemisphere (NH) mole fraction in 1994 was 1.2 ppt rising to an annual average mole fraction of 10.1 ppt in 2014. Average annual mole fractions in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in 1998 and 2014 were 0.84 and 4.5 ppt, respectively. We estimate global emissions of HFC-152a have risen from 7.3 ± 5.6 Gg yr-1 in 1994 to a maximum of 54.4 ± 17.1 Gg yr-1 in 2011, declining to 52.5 ± 20.1 Gg yr-1 in 2014 or 7.2 ± 2.8 Tg-CO2 eq yr-1. Analysis of mole fraction enhancements above regional background atmospheric levels suggests substantial emissions from North America, Asia, and Europe. Global HFC emissions (so called "bottom up" emissions) reported by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are based on cumulative national emission data reported to the UNFCCC, which in turn are based on national consumption data. There appears to be a significant underestimate ( > 20 Gg) of "bottom-up" reported emissions of HFC-152a, possibly arising from largely underestimated USA emissions and undeclared Asian emissions.

From Lean Times to Enrollment Declines: The Governor's Commission on the Future of Higher Education in Michigan. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Widmayer, Patricia

Conditions in higher education in Michigan and the role of the Governor's Commission on the Future of Higher Education in Michigan are highlighted. The average college tuition rate in Michigan is the highest in the nation, and a critical maintenance and equipment problem exists. The Commission is composed of knowledgeable persons without vested…

Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease in the Americas - Will the Goal of a Decline of "25% by 2025" be Met?

PubMed

Ordunez, Pedro; Prieto-Lara, Elisa; Pinheiro Gawryszewski, Vilma; Hennis, Anselm J M; Cooper, Richard S

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the underlying cause 1.6 million deaths per year in the Americas, accounting for 30% of total mortality and 38% of by non-communicable deaths diseases (NCDs). A 25% reduction in premature mortality due four main NCDs was targeted by the 2011 High-level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of NCDs. While overall CVD mortality fell in the Americas during the past decade, trends in premature CVD mortality during the same period have not been described, particularly in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. This is a population-based trend-series study based on a total of 6,133,666 deaths to describe the trends and characteristics of premature mortality due to CVD and to estimates of the average annual percentage of change during the period 2000-2010 in the Americas. Premature mortality due to CVD in the Americas fell by 21% in the period 2000-2010 with a -2.5% average annual rate of change in the last 5 year-a statistically significant reduction of mortality-. Mortality from ischemic diseases, declined by 25% - 24% among men and 26% among women. Cerebrovascular diseases declined by 27% -26% among men and 28% among women. Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic, Bahamas, and Brazil had CVD premature mortality rates over 200 per 100,000 population, while the average for the Region was 132.7. US and Canada will meet the 25% reduction target before 2025. Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Panama, Guyana, and El Salvador did not significantly reduce premature mortality among men and Guyana, the Dominican Republic, and Panama did not achieve the required annual reduction in women. Trends in premature mortality due to CVD observed in last decade in the Americas would indicate that if these trends continue, the Region as a whole and a majority of its countries will be able to reach the goal of a 25% relative reduction in premature mortality even before 2025.

Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease in the Americas – Will the Goal of a Decline of “25% by 2025” be Met?

PubMed Central

Ordunez, Pedro; Prieto-Lara, Elisa; Pinheiro Gawryszewski, Vilma; Hennis, Anselm J. M.; Cooper, Richard S.

2015-01-01

Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the underlying cause 1.6 million deaths per year in the Americas, accounting for 30% of total mortality and 38% of by non-communicable deaths diseases (NCDs). A 25% reduction in premature mortality due four main NCDs was targeted by the 2011 High-level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of NCDs. While overall CVD mortality fell in the Americas during the past decade, trends in premature CVD mortality during the same period have not been described, particularly in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Methods This is a population-based trend-series study based on a total of 6,133,666 deaths to describe the trends and characteristics of premature mortality due to CVD and to estimates of the average annual percentage of change during the period 2000–2010 in the Americas. Findings Premature mortality due to CVD in the Americas fell by 21% in the period 2000–2010 with a -2.5% average annual rate of change in the last 5 year—a statistically significant reduction of mortality—. Mortality from ischemic diseases, declined by 25% - 24% among men and 26% among women. Cerebrovascular diseases declined by 27% -26% among men and 28% among women. Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic, Bahamas, and Brazil had CVD premature mortality rates over 200 per 100,000 population, while the average for the Region was 132.7. US and Canada will meet the 25% reduction target before 2025. Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Panama, Guyana, and El Salvador did not significantly reduce premature mortality among men and Guyana, the Dominican Republic, and Panama did not achieve the required annual reduction in women. Conclusions Trends in premature mortality due to CVD observed in last decade in the Americas would indicate that if these trends continue, the Region as a whole and a majority of its countries will be able to reach the goal of a 25% relative reduction in premature mortality even before 2025. PMID:26512989

Recharge studies on the High Plains in northern Lea County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Havens, John S.

1966-01-01

The area described in this report is that part of the southern High Plains principally within northern Lea County, N. Mex. ; it comprises about 1,400,000 acres. Hydrologic boundaries isolate the main aquifer of the area, the Ogallala Formation, from outside sources of natural recharge other than precipitation on the area. Natural recharge to this aquifer from the 15-inch average annual precipitation for the period 1949-60 is estimated to be about 95,000 acre-ft (acre-feet) which is between the 59,000 and 118,000 acre-ft a year obtained from the This estimate (1934) of ? to 1 inch a year. About one-sixth of the water pumped for irrigation, or an average of about 23,000 acre-ft a year in the period 1949-60, returns to the aquifer. The estimated long-term (1939-60) average annual recharge to the aquifer is about 77,000 acre-ft. Discharge from the aquifer is by pumping and underflow from the area. Gross pumpage averaged about 151,000 acre-ft a year in the period 1949-60. Underflow from the area is estimated to have been about 36,000 acre-ft a year. Thus, the estimated average annual discharge from the aquifer was about 187,000 acre-ft a year, and this exceeded recharge by about 69,000 acre-ft a year. This overdraft is reflected in a general net decline of the water table of 10 ft in the period 1950-60 and net declines of as much as 30 feet in local areas. Data obtained during this study indicate that about 100,000 acre-ft of water collects in closed depressions on the surface of the High Plains in years when precipitation is normal. Studies of water losses from ponds in selected depressions indicate that between 20 and 80 percent of this loss recharges the groundwater body and the balance is lost to evapotranspiration, principally evaporation. Artificial recharge facilities constructed in the depressions could put at least 50,000 acre-ft of water underground annually that otherwise would be lost to evaporation. Recharging through pits or spreading ponds would cost less per unit volume of water than recharge through wells.

Changes in flow in the Beaver-North Canadian River basin upstream from Canton Lake, western Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Kenneth L.; Tortorelli, Robert L.

1997-01-01

This report presents the results of an evaluation of hydrologic data for the Beaver-North Canadian River basin upstream from Canton Lake in western Oklahoma. It examines the climatic and hydrologic data for evidence of trends. The hydrologic data examined includes total annual flow, base flow, and annual peak discharges. This study was conducted to determine if there is evidence of trends present in hydrologic and climatic data. All available streamflow-gaging station data, with at least 10 or more years of record, were examined for trends. In addition, the data were divided into an 'early' period (ending in 1971), representing conditions before ground-water levels had declined appreciably, and a 'recent' period (1978-1994), reflecting the condition of declining ground-water levels, including the effects of storage reservoirs. Tests for trend, moving averages, and comparisons of median and average flows for an early period (ending in 1971) with those for the recent period (1978-1994) show that the total annual volume of flow and the magnitudes of instantaneous annual peak discharges measured at most gaging stations in the Beaver- North Canadian River basin have decreased in recent years. Precipitation records for the panhandle, however, show no corresponding changes. The changes in flow are most pronounced in the headwaters upstream from Woodward, but also are evident at Woodward and near Seiling, which represents the inflow to Canton Lake. The average annual discharge decreased between the early period and the recent period by the following amounts: near Guymon, 18,000 acre-feet; at Beaver, 68,000 acre-feet; at Woodward, 72,000 acre-feet; and near Seiling, 63,000 acre-feet. These decreases, expressed as a percentage of the average flows for the early period, were 91 percent near Guymon, 82 percent at Beaver, 49 percent at Woodward, and 37 percent near Seiling. The medians of the annual peak discharges decreased from the early period to the recent period by the following amounts: near Guymon, 98 percent; at Beaver, 86 percent; at Woodward, 80 percent; and near Seiling, 53 percent. The Guymon gage is not affected by reservoirs; the other three mainstem gaging stations are influenced by reservoirs, but the decreases in annual peak discharges are greater than can be explained by storage in those reservoirs. Base flows have undergone substantial change, but unlike the annual volumes the base flows show some increases and some decreases. Flow duration analyses show a shift in the distribution of annual flows. Less contribution is coming from large floods that formerly added substantially to the yearly average flows. Near Seiling, for example, the magnitudes of the large flows that occur less than about 20 percent of the time were greatly reduced in the recent period. A primary mechanism producing these decreased streamflows appears to be the depletion of ground water in the High Plains aquifer that underlies more than 90 percent of the basin. Changes in farming and conservation practices and in water use also may be having an effect.

Survival of northern pintails banded during winter in North America, 1950-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hestbeck, J.B.

1993-01-01

From 1950 through 1988, the continental breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) varied from 2.0 million to 9.9 million. Because pintails have high fidelity to certain wintering grounds along coasts and large bodies of water, management on these wintering areas may increase population size if changes in winter survival rate are related to changes in population size. I used band-recovery data to estimate survival rates for winter-banded pintails and to test for sex-specific, temporal, and geographic variation in survival rates. Survival rate estimates varied between 0.632 and 0.806 for males, and 0.421 and 0.769 for females. Males had higher (P lt 0.0001) average annual survival rates than females. Limited geographic variation occurred in estimates of average annual survival rates for males, and no variation occurred for females. Males had lower average annual survival rates in the Imperial Valley than in central California (P = 0.007) or in the Gulf Coast (P = 0.092). Little annual variation was found within time periods. However, longer-term variation was found in survival rate estimates for males and females. Males had higher (P = 0.054) average annual survival rates in the Pacific Flyway during 1959-61, a period of drought, breeding-population decline, and restrictive hunting regulations, than during 1950-58, a period with a higher breeding population and liberal regulations. The increase in wintering population size in the Pacific Flyway during the 1970's was associated with a higher average annual survival rate for females in the Pacific Flyway than during the 1950's. Results from the Pacific Flyway suggested that an interaction may exist between population size and the effect of harvest regulations on survival of males. Changes in harvest regulations appeared to have a greater effect at lower population levels.

Population dynamics of Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik: 1966-2012.

PubMed

Miquelle, Dale G; Smirnov, Evgeny N; Zaumyslova, Olga Yu; Soutyrina, Svetlana V; Johnson, Douglas H

2015-07-01

In 2010, the world's tiger (Panthera tigris) range countries agreed to the goal of doubling tiger numbers over 12 years, but whether such an increase is biologically feasible has not been assessed. Long-term monitoring of tigers in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), Russia provided an opportunity to determine growth rates of a recovering population. A 41-year growth phase was followed by a rapid decline in tiger numbers. Annual growth rates during the growth phase averaged 4.6%, beginning near 10% in the earliest years but quickly dropping below 5%. Sex ratio (females per male) mirrored growth rates, declining as population size increased. The rapid decline from 2009 to 2012 appeared to be tied to multiple factors, including poaching, severe winters and disease. Reproductive indicators of this population are similar to those of Bengal tiger populations, suggesting that growth rates may be similar. These results suggest that, first, tiger populations likely in general grow slowly: 3-5% yearly increases are realistic and larger growth rates are likely only when populations are highly depressed, mortality rates are low and prey populations are high relative to numbers of adult females. Second, while more research is needed, it should not be assumed that tiger populations with high prey densities will necessarily grow more quickly than populations with low prey densities. Third, while growth is slow, decline can be rapid. Fourth, because declines can happen so quickly, there is a constant need to monitor populations and be ready to respond with appropriate and timely conservation interventions if tiger populations are to remain secure. Finally, an average annual growth rate across all tiger populations of 6%, required to reach the Global Tiger Initiative's goal of doubling tiger numbers in 12 years, is a noble but unlikely scenario. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Hydrologic and related data for water-supply planning in an intensive-study area, northeastern Wichita County, Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kume, Jack; Dunlap, L.E.; Gutentag, E.D.; Thomas, J.G.

1979-01-01

Data are presented that result from an intensive geohydrologic study for water-supply planning in a 12-square-mile area in northeastern Wichita County, Kansas. These data include records of wells, test drilling, chemical analyses, ground-water levels, rainfall, soilmoisture, well yield, solar radiation, crop yield, and crop acreage. Data indicate that water levels in the unconsolidated aquifer are declining at an average annual rate of about 1 to 2 feet per year (1950-78). This decline is the aquifer's response to pumping by irrigation wells for watering corn, wheat, grain sorghum, and other crops.

Hysterectomy trends in Australia, 2000-2001 to 2013-2014: joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Wilson, Louise F; Pandeya, Nirmala; Mishra, Gita D

2017-10-01

Hysterectomy is a common gynecological procedure, particularly in middle and high income countries. The aim of this paper was to describe and examine hysterectomy trends in Australia from 2000-2001 to 2013-2014. For women aged 25 years and over, data on the number of hysterectomies performed in Australia annually were sourced from the National Hospital and Morbidity Database. Age-specific and age-standardized hysterectomy rates per 10 000 women were estimated with adjustment for hysterectomy prevalence in the population. Using joinpoint regression analysis, we estimated the average annual percentage change over the whole study period (2000-2014) and the annual percentage change for each identified trend line segment. A total of 431 162 hysterectomy procedures were performed between 2000-2001 and 2013-2014; an annual average of 30 797 procedures (for women aged 25+ years). The age-standardized hysterectomy rate, adjusted for underlying hysterectomy prevalence, decreased significantly over the whole study period [average annual percentage change -2.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.5%, -2.2%]. The trend was not linear with one joinpoint detected in 2008-2009. Between 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 there was a significant decrease in incidence (annual percentage change -4.4%; 95% CI -5.2%, -3.7%); from 2008-2009 to 2013-2014 the decrease was minimal and not significantly different from zero (annual percentage change -0.1%; 95% CI -1.7%, 1.5%). A similar change in trend was seen in all age groups. Hysterectomy rates in Australian women aged 25 years and over have declined in the first decade of the 21st century. However, in the last 5 years, rates appear to have stabilized. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Ozone response to emission reductions in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, Charles L.; Hidy, George M.

2018-06-01

Ozone (O3) formation in the southeastern US is studied in relation to nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions using long-term (1990s-2015) surface measurements of the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) network, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) O3 measurements, and EPA Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) nitrate deposition data. Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8 h O3 mixing ratios at EPA monitoring sites in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi exhibit statistically significant (p < 0.0001) linear correlations with annual NOx emissions in those states between 1996 and 2015. The annual fourth-highest daily peak 8 h O3 mixing ratios declined toward values of ˜ 45-50 ppbv and monthly O3 maxima decreased at rates averaging ˜ 1-1.5 ppbv yr-1. Mean annual total oxidized nitrogen (NOy) mixing ratios at SEARCH sites declined in proportion to NOx emission reductions. CASTNET data show declining wet and dry nitrate deposition since the late 1990s, with total (wet plus dry) nitrate deposition fluxes decreasing linearly in proportion to reductions of NOx emissions by ˜ 60 % in Alabama and Georgia. Annual nitrate deposition rates at Georgia and Alabama CASTNET sites correspond to 30 % of Georgia emission rates and 36 % of Alabama emission rates, respectively. The fraction of NOx emissions lost to deposition has not changed. SEARCH and CASTNET sites exhibit downward trends in mean annual nitric acid (HNO3) concentrations. Observed relationships of O3 to NOz (NOy-NOx) support past model predictions of increases in cycling of NO and increasing responsiveness of O3 to NOx. The study data provide a long-term record that can be used to examine the accuracy of process relationships embedded in modeling efforts. Quantifying observed O3 trends and relating them to reductions in ambient NOy species concentrations offers key insights into processes of general relevance to air quality management and provides important information supporting strategies for reducing O3 mixing ratios.

Tennessee's forest land area was stable 1999-2005 but early successional forest area declined

Treesearch

Christopher M. Oswalt

2008-01-01

A new analysis of the most recent (2005) annualized moving average data for Tennessee indicates that the area of forest land in the State remained stable between 1999 and 2005. Although trends in forest land area vary from region to region within the State, Tennessee neither lost nor gained forest land between 1999 and 2005. However, Tennessee had more than 2.5 times...

Mumps in the US Army 1980-86: should recruits be immunized?

PubMed Central

Arday, D R; Kanjarpane, D D; Kelley, P W

1989-01-01

The US Army's experience with mumps hospitalizations was examined for the years 1980 through 1986. One hundred fifty-two cases among active duty Army soldiers were identified. Mumps rates declined from 3.85 per 100,000 active duty soldiers per year in 1980 to 1.28 in 1985, but an outbreak during 1986 caused rates to jump to 6.65. Attack rates were found to decline dramatically with increasing age or length of military service, with 74 per cent of cases occurring in soldiers with three years or less of service. Rates for Blacks and Whites were similar, but were higher for other minorities. Complications reported were mild. A cost-benefit analysis, assuming all recruits were to be vaccinated, estimated average annual vaccination program costs of $286,789; this figure exceeds average annual reported hospitalized mumps disease costs of $61,525 by a factor of 4.7. Mumps attack rates would have to reach at least 15.0 per 100,000 per year before savings would equal recruit vaccination costs. Failure to show that a vaccine program would be cost-saving may be due to limitations in identifying cases or to the requirement that all recruits be immunized regardless of prior immune status. It is likely that a program to immunize susceptible individuals alone would show benefit. PMID:2494895

Lung function decline over 25 years of follow-up among black and white adults in the ARIC study cohort.

PubMed

Mirabelli, Maria C; Preisser, John S; Loehr, Laura R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Barr, R Graham; Couper, David J; Hankinson, John L; Hyun, Noorie; Folsom, Aaron R; London, Stephanie J

2016-04-01

Interpretation of longitudinal information about lung function decline from middle to older age has been limited by loss to follow-up that may be correlated with baseline lung function or the rate of decline. We conducted these analyses to estimate age-related decline in lung function across groups of race, sex, and smoking status while accounting for dropout from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We analyzed data from 13,896 black and white participants, aged 45-64 years at the 1987-1989 baseline clinical examination. Using spirometry data collected at baseline and two follow-up visits, we estimated annual population-averaged mean changes in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) by race, sex, and smoking status using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning-on-being-alive. Estimated rates of FEV1 decline estimated using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning on being alive were higher among white than black participants at age 45 years (e.g., male never smokers: black: -29.5 ml/year; white: -51.9 ml/year), but higher among black than white participants by age 75 (black: -51.2 ml/year; white: -26). Observed differences by race were more pronounced among men than among women. By smoking status, FEV1 declines were larger among current than former or never smokers at age 45 across all categories of race and sex. By age 60, FEV1 decline was larger among former and never than current smokers. Estimated annual declines generated using unweighted generalized estimating equations were smaller for current smokers at younger ages in all four groups of race and sex compared with results from weighted analyses that accounted for attrition. Using methods accounting for dropout from an approximately 25-year health study, estimated rates of lung function decline varied by age, race, sex, and smoking status, with largest declines observed among current smokers at younger ages. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Hearing conservation in the primary aluminium industry

PubMed Central

Frisch, N.; Dixon-Ernst, C.; Chesson, B. J.; Cullen, M. R.

2016-01-01

Background Noise-induced hearing loss has been an intractable problem for heavy industry. Aims To report our experience in reducing the incidence of age-corrected confirmed 10 dB hearing shifts (averaged over 2, 3 and 4kHz) in employees in the primary aluminium industry in Australia over the period 2006–13. Methods We analysed annual audiometric data to determine the number of permanent hearing shifts that occurred in employees in two bauxite mines, three alumina refineries and two aluminium smelters. Annual hearing shift rates were calculated based on the number of employees tested per year. Hearing conservation initiatives undertaken during the study period are described. An assessment of similar exposure group noise exposures was also undertaken to determine the magnitude of noise exposure reduction during the study period. Results Across all operations, hearing shift rates declined from 5.5% per year in 2006 to 1.3% per year in 2013 (P < 0.001). The decline in shift rates was greater in mines and refineries, where baseline shift rates were higher, than in smelter workers. Modest reductions in noise exposure occurred during the study period. Conclusions We observed a substantial decline in hearing shift rates during the study period. We describe the hearing conservation initiatives that were collectively associated with this decline. We suspect these initiatives could be deployed relatively easily and at modest cost in other industries with noise-exposed employees. PMID:26470945

Global Trends in the Affordability of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, 1990–2016

PubMed Central

Blecher, Evan; Liber, Alex C.; Nguyen, Binh; Stoklosa, Michal

2017-01-01

Introduction The objective of this study was to quantify changes in the affordability of sugar-sweetened beverages, a product implicated as a contributor to rising rates of obesity worldwide, as a function of product price and personal income. Methods We used international survey data in a retrospective analysis of 40 high-income and 42 low-income and middle-income countries from 1990 to 2016. Prices of sugar-sweetened beverages were from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s World Cost of Living Survey. Income and inflation data were from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database. The measure of affordability was the average annual percentage change in the relative-income price of sugar-sweetened beverages, which is the annual rate of change in the proportion of per capita gross domestic product needed to purchase 100 L of Coca-Cola in each country in each year of the study. Results In 79 of 82 countries, the proportion of income needed to purchase sugar-sweetened beverages declined on average (using annual measures) during the study period. This pattern, described as an increase in the affordability of sugar-sweetened beverages, indicated that sugar-sweetened beverages became more affordable more rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, a fact largely attributable to the higher rate of income growth in those countries than to a decline in the real price of sugar-sweetened beverages. Conclusion Without deliberate policy action to raise prices, sugar-sweetened beverages are likely to become more affordable and more widely consumed around the world. PMID:28472607

Global Trends in the Affordability of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, 1990-2016.

PubMed

Blecher, Evan; Liber, Alex C; Drope, Jeffrey M; Nguyen, Binh; Stoklosa, Michal

2017-05-04

The objective of this study was to quantify changes in the affordability of sugar-sweetened beverages, a product implicated as a contributor to rising rates of obesity worldwide, as a function of product price and personal income. We used international survey data in a retrospective analysis of 40 high-income and 42 low-income and middle-income countries from 1990 to 2016. Prices of sugar-sweetened beverages were from the Economist Intelligence Unit's World Cost of Living Survey. Income and inflation data were from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Database. The measure of affordability was the average annual percentage change in the relative-income price of sugar-sweetened beverages, which is the annual rate of change in the proportion of per capita gross domestic product needed to purchase 100 L of Coca-Cola in each country in each year of the study. In 79 of 82 countries, the proportion of income needed to purchase sugar-sweetened beverages declined on average (using annual measures) during the study period. This pattern, described as an increase in the affordability of sugar-sweetened beverages, indicated that sugar-sweetened beverages became more affordable more rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, a fact largely attributable to the higher rate of income growth in those countries than to a decline in the real price of sugar-sweetened beverages. Without deliberate policy action to raise prices, sugar-sweetened beverages are likely to become more affordable and more widely consumed around the world.

Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Runge, T.

2013-02-01

We study solar wind-ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) - 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10-22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008-2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008-2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 1010 W and 2.7 × 1010 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind-ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind-ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

Effects of shifting seasonal rainfall patterns on net primary productivity and carbon storage in tropical seasonally dry ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohr, T.; Manzoni, S.; Feng, X.; Menezes, R.; Porporato, A. M.

2013-12-01

Although seasonally dry ecosystems (SDEs), identified by prolonged drought followed by a short, but intense, rainy season, cover large regions of the tropics, their biogeochemical response to seasonal rainfall and soil carbon (C) sequestration potential are not well characterized. Both productivity and soil respiration are positively affected by seasonal soil moisture availability, creating a delicate balance between C deposition through litterfall and C losses through heterotrophic respiration. As climate change projections for the tropics predict decreased annual rainfall and increased dry season length, it is critical to understand how variations in seasonal rainfall distributions control this balance. To address this question, we develop a minimal model linking the seasonal behavior of the ensemble soil moisture, plant productivity, the related soil C inputs through litterfall, and soil C dynamics. The model is parameterized for a case study from a drought-deciduous caatinga ecosystem in northeastern Brazil. Results indicate that when altering the seasonal rainfall patterns for a fixed annual rainfall, both plant productivity and soil C sequestration potential are largely, and nonlinearly, dependent on wet season duration. Moreover, total annual rainfall plays a dominant role in describing this relationship, leading at times to the emergence of distinct optima in both primary production and C sequestration. Examining these results in the context of climate-driven changes to wet season duration and mean annual precipitation indicate that the initial hydroclimatic regime of a particular ecosystem is an important factor to predict both the magnitude and direction of the effects of shifting seasonal distributions on productivity and C storage. Although highly productive ecosystems will likely experience declining C storage with predicted climate shifts, those currently operating well below peak production can potentially see improved C stocks with the onset of declining rainfall due to reduced soil respiration. a) Annual average net primary productivity and b) the temporally averaged ensemble soil carbon concentration <(C_yr )> are plotted against the length of the wet season T_W, for six annual rainfall rates (m yr-1).

Relative efficiency and productivity: a preliminary exploration of public hospitals in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Hao; Dong, Siping; Liu, Tingfang

2014-04-06

Third-grade hospitals in Beijing have been rapidly developing in capacity and scale for many years. These hospitals receive a large number of patients, and ensuring their efficient operation is crucial in meeting people's healthcare needs. In this context, a study of their relative efficiency and productivity would be helpful to identify the driving factors and further improve their performance. After a review of literature, the current numbers of open beds and employees were selected as input variables. The number of outpatient and emergency visits and the number of discharged patients were selected as output variables. A total of 12 third-grade Class A general public hospitals in Beijing were selected for a preliminary study. The panel data from 2006-2009 were collected by the National Institute of Hospital Administration, Ministry of Health of P.R. China. Descriptive analysis and data envelopment analysis were used to analyze the data using Stata 10.0 and DEAP(V2.1) software. In the 2006-2009 period, descriptive results show that sample hospitals continuously expanded their capacity and scale, with growth rate of total revenue being the highest among all variables. The DEA results show that the average annual growth rate of productivity was 26.7%, and the rates were 47.3%, 21.3% and 13.8% respectively for two consecutive years. The average annual growth rate of technological change was 28.3%, and the rates were 49.4%, 21.5% and 16.4% respectively for two consecutive years. The average annual growth rate of technical efficiency change was -1.3%, and the rates were -1.4%, -0.02% and -2.2% respectively for two consecutive years. The sample hospitals in Beijing experienced substantial productivity growth, but annual growth rates were declining. Substantial technological change was the main contributor to the growth. Although some hospitals exhibited improvements in technical efficiency, there was a slight decline in general. To improve overall efficiency and productivity, both government and hospitals need to further drive positive technological change, technical change, and allocative efficiency of public hospitals. More empirical studies are needed to include more hospitals of all three grades at a larger scale.

Climate-simulated raceway pond culturing: quantifying the maximum achievable annual biomass productivity of Chlorella sorokiniana in the contiguous USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huesemann, M.; Chavis, A.; Edmundson, S.

Chlorella sorokiniana (DOE 1412) emerged as one of the most promising microalgae strains from the NAABB consortium project, with a remarkable doubling time under optimal conditions of 2.57 hr-1. However, its maximum achievable annual biomass productivity in outdoor ponds in the contiguous United States remained unknown. In order to address this knowledge gap, this alga was cultured in indoor LED-lighted and temperature-controlled raceways in nutrient replete freshwater (BG-11) medium at pH 7 under conditions simulating the daily sunlight intensity and water temperature fluctuations during three seasons in Southern Florida, an optimal outdoor pond culture location for this organism identified bymore » biomass growth modeling. Prior strain characterization indicated that the average maximum specific growth rate (µmax) at 36 ºC declined continuously with pH, with µmax corresponding to 5.92, 5.83, 4.89, and 4.21 day-1 at pH 6, 7, 8, and 9, respectively. In addition, the maximum specific growth rate declined nearly linearly with increasing salinity until no growth was observed above 35 g/L NaCl. In the climate-simulated culturing studies, the volumetric ash-free dry weight-based biomass productivities during the linear growth phase were 57, 69, and 97 mg/L-day for 30-year average light and temperature simulations for January (winter), March (spring), and July (summer), respectively, which corresponds to average areal productivities of 11.6, 14.1, and 19.9 g/m2-day at a constant pond depth of 20.5 cm. The photosynthetic efficiencies (PAR) in the three climate-simulated pond culturing experiments ranged from 4.1 to 5.1%. The annual biomass productivity was estimated as ca. 15 g/m2-day, nearly double the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) 2015 State of Technology annual cultivation productivity of 8.5 g/m2-day, but this is still significantly below the projected 2022 target of ca. 25 g/m2-day (U.S. DOE, 2016) for economic microalgal biofuel production, indicating the need for additional research in strain biology and system engineering.« less

Urine Volume and Change in Estimated GFR in a Community-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Sontrop, Jessica M.; Macnab, Jennifer J.; Suri, Rita S.; Moist, Louise; Salvadori, Marina; Garg, Amit X.

2011-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The effect of increased fluid intake on kidney function is unclear. This study evaluates the relationship between urine volume and renal decline over 6 years in a large community-based cohort. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This prospective cohort study was undertaken in Canada from 2002 to 2008. We obtained 24-hour urine samples from adult participants with an estimated GFR (eGFR) ≥60ml/min per 1.73 m2 at study entry. Percentage annual change in eGFR from baseline was categorized as average decline <1% per year, between 1% and 4.9% (mild-to-moderate decline) or ≥5% (rapid decline). Results 2148 participants provided valid 24-hour urine samples, grouped as <1 L/d (14.5%); 1 to 1.9 L/d (51.5%); 2 to 2.9 L/d (26.3%); and ≥3 L/d (7.7%). Baseline eGFR for each category of urine volume was 90, 88, 84, and 87 ml/min per 1.73 m2, respectively. Overall, eGFR declined by 1% per year, with 10% demonstrating rapid decline and 40% demonstrating mild-to-moderate decline. An inverse, graded relationship was evident between urine volume and eGFR decline: For each increasing category of 24-hour urine volume, percentage annual eGFR decline was progressively slower, from 1.3%, 1.0%, 0.8%, to 0.5%, respectively; P = 0.02. Compared with those with urine volume 1 to 1.9 L/d, those with urine volume ≥3 L/d were significantly less likely to demonstrate mild-to-moderate decline (adjusted odds ratio 0.66; 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.94) or rapid decline (adjusted odds ratio 0.46; 95% confidence interval 0.23 to 0.92); adjusted for age, gender, baseline eGFR, medication use for hypertension (including diuretics), proteinuria, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Conclusions In this community-based cohort, decline in kidney function was significantly slower in those with higher versus lower urine volume. PMID:21885793

The impact of the 2007-2009 recession on workers' health coverage.

PubMed

Fronstin, Paul

2011-04-01

IMPACT OF THE RECESSION: The 2007-2009 recession has taken its toll on the percentage of the population with employment-based health coverage. While, since 2000, there has been a slow erosion in the percentage of individuals under age 65 with employment-based health coverage, 2009 was the first year in which the percentage fell below 60 percent, and marked the largest one-year decline in coverage. FEWER WORKERS WITH COVERAGE: The percentage of workers with coverage through their own job fell from 53.2 percent in 2008 to 52 percent in 2009, a 2.4 percent decline in the likelihood that a worker has coverage through his or her own job. The percentage of workers with coverage as a dependent fell from 17 percent in 2008 to 16.3 percent in 2009, a 4.5 percent drop in the likelihood that a worker has coverage as a dependent. These declines occurred as the unemployment rate increased from an average of 5.8 percent in 2008 to 9.3 percent in 2009 (and reached a high of 10.1 percent during 2009). FIRM SIZE/INDUSTRY: The decline in the percentage of workers with coverage from their own job affected workers in private-sector firms of all sizes. Among public-sector workers, the decline from 73.4 percent to 73 percent was not statistically significant. Workers in all private-sector industries experienced a statistically significant decline in coverage between 2008 and 2009. HOURS WORKED: Full-time workers experienced a decline in coverage that was statistically significant while part-time workers did not. Among full-time workers, those employed full year experienced a statistically significant decline in coverage from their own job. Those employed full time but for only part of the year did not experience a statistically significant change in coverage. Among part-time workers, those employed full year experienced a statistically significant increase in the likelihood of having coverage in their own name, as did part-time workers employed for only part of the year. ANNUAL EARNINGS: The decline in the percentage of workers with coverage through their own job was limited to workers with lower annual earnings. Statistically significant declines were not found among any group of workers with annual earnings of at least $40,000. Workers with a high school education or less experienced a statistically significant decline in the likelihood of having coverage. Neither workers with a college degree nor those with a graduate degree experienced a statistically significant decline in coverage through their own job. Workers of all races experienced statistically significant declines in coverage between 2008 and 2009. Both men and women experienced a statistically significant decline in the percentage with health coverage through their own job. IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE WORK FORCE: The movement of workers from the manufacturing industry to the service sector continued between 2008 and 2009. The percentage of workers employed on a full-time basis decreased while the percentage working part time increased. While there was an overall decline in the percentage of full-time workers, that decline was limited to workers employed full year. The percentage of workers employed on a full-time, part-year basis increased between 2008 and 2009. The distribution of workers by annual earnings shifted from middle-income workers to lower-income workers between 2008 and 2009.

Selected low-flow frequency statistics for continuous-record streamgages in Georgia, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.

2016-04-13

This report presents the annual and monthly minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with the 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10 and 7Q10) for 197 continuous-record streamgages in Georgia. Streamgages used in the study included active and discontinued stations having a minimum of 10 complete climatic years of record as of September 30, 2013. The 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics were computed for 85 streamgages on unregulated streams with minimal diversions upstream, 43 streamgages on regulated streams, and 69 streamgages known, or considered, to be affected by varying degrees of diversions upstream. Descriptive information for each of these streamgages, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station number, station name, latitude, longitude, county, drainage area, and period of record analyzed also is presented.Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows for the 197 streamgages. Significant negative trends in the minimum annual 1-day and 7-day average streamflow were indicated for 77 of the 197 streamgages. Many of these significant negative trends are due to the period of record ending during one of the recent droughts in Georgia, particularly those streamgages with record through the 2013 water year. Long-term unregulated streamgages with 70 or more years of record indicate significant negative trends in the annual minimum 7-day average flow for central and southern Georgia. Watersheds for some of these streamgages have experienced minimal human impact, thus indicating that the significant negative trends observed in flows at the long-term streamgages may be influenced by changing climatological conditions. A Kendall-tau trend analysis of the annual air temperature and precipitation totals for Georgia indicated no significant trends. A comprehensive analysis of causes of the trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia is outside the scope of this study. Further study is needed to determine some of the causes, including both climatological and human impacts, of the significant negative trends in annual minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia.To assess the changes in the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics over time for long-term continuous streamgages with significant trends in record, the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics were computed on a decadal accumulated basis for 39 streamgages having 40 or more years of record that indicated a significant trend. Records from most of the streamgages showed a decline in 7Q10 statistics for the decades of 1980–89, 1990–99, and 2000–09 because of the recent droughts in Georgia. Twenty four of the 39 streamgages had complete records from 1980 to 2010, and records from 23 of these gages exhibited a decline in the 7Q10 statistics during this period, ranging from –6.3 to –76.2 percent with a mean of –27.3 percent. No attempts were made during this study to adjust streamflow records or statistical analyses on the basis of trends.The monthly and annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics for the entire period of record analyzed in the study are incorporated into the USGS StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for Georgia. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected streamgages.

Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs.

PubMed

van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey Allen; Manzello, Derek; Planes, Serge

2014-01-01

Coral reefs and the services they provide are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Here, we present updated global projections for these key threats to coral reefs based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 climate models using the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments. For all tropical reef locations, we project absolute and percentage changes in aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) for the period between 2006 and the onset of annual severe bleaching (thermal stress >8 degree heating weeks); a point at which it is difficult to believe reefs can persist as we know them. Severe annual bleaching is projected to start 10-15 years later at high-latitude reefs than for reefs in low latitudes under RCP8.5. In these 10-15 years, Ωarag keeps declining and thus any benefits for high-latitude reefs of later onset of annual bleaching may be negated by the effects of acidification. There are no long-term refugia from the effects of both acidification and bleaching. Of all reef locations, 90% are projected to experience severe bleaching annually by 2055. Furthermore, 5% declines in calcification are projected for all reef locations by 2034 under RCP8.5, assuming a 15% decline in calcification per unit of Ωarag. Drastic emissions cuts, such as those represented by RCP6.0, result in an average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching that is ~20 years later (2062 vs. 2044). However, global emissions are tracking above the current worst-case scenario devised by the scientific community, as has happened in previous generations of emission scenarios. The projections here for conditions on coral reefs are dire, but provide the most up-to-date assessment of what the changing climate and ocean acidification mean for the persistence of coral reefs. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Our "increasingly mobile society"? The curious persistence of a false belief.

PubMed

Wolf, Douglas A; Longino, Charles F

2005-02-01

We call attention to the widespread belief that the United States is an "increasingly mobile society," despite the fact that overall mobility has generally declined since about 1950, and interstate mobility has generally not increased during the same period. We review and extend past research documenting these mobility trends. We describe population-level mobility for people of all ages as well as for several adult age groups, using published data from the U.S. Current Population Survey. We use simple regression methods to estimate the size and significance of mobility trends. Overall mobility rates have declined for individuals of all ages and among all age groups. The largest average annual declines occur for 20- to 29-year-olds, although the rate of decline for those aged 65 and older is also large. Interstate mobility has declined slightly or remained constant, except among adults between 45 and 64 years old. Although there may be good reasons to worry about the future of family care provided to elderly individuals, increased geographic mobility does not appear to be one of them. We speculate on reasons why the false belief persists.

Fasting insulin levels and cognitive decline in older women without diabetes.

PubMed

van Oijen, Marieke; Okereke, Olivia I; Kang, Jae Hee; Pollak, Michael N; Hu, Frank B; Hankinson, Susan E; Grodstein, Francine

2008-01-01

Type 2 diabetes has been associated with an increased risk of dementia. To assess possible independent effects of insulin, we investigated the relation of insulin levels to cognitive decline in nondiabetic women. Fasting plasma insulin levels were measured in mid-life in 1,416 nondiabetic Nurses' Health Study participants, who also completed cognitive testing that began 10 years later (current age: 70-75 years). Over 4 years, 3 assessments of general cognition, verbal memory, category fluency and attention were administered. Primary outcomes were the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) performance, the global score (average of all tests) and verbal memory (average of verbal recall tests). Linear mixed-effects models were used to calculate the association between insulin and cognitive decline. Higher insulin levels were associated with a faster decline on the TICS and verbal memory. For analysis, batch-specific quartiles of insulin levels were constructed. Compared to the lowest quartile, adjusted differences in the annual rates of decline (with 95% CI values in parentheses) for the second, third and fourth quartiles were: TICS, -0.06 (-0.16, 0.03), -0.14 (-0.24, -0.04), and -0.09 (-0.19, 0.01) points (p trend = 0.04); verbal memory, -0.01 (-0.04, 0.02), -0.05 (-0.08, -0.02), and -0.02 (-0.05, 0.01) units (p trend = 0.02). These associations remained after multivariable adjustment. Our study provides evidence for a potential role of higher fasting insulin levels in cognitive decline, possibly independent of diabetes. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Seasonal and Inter-annual Variability in Modeled Larval Dispersal and Population Connectivity of Blue Crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyory, J.; Jones, B.; Ko, D. S.; Taylor, C.

2016-02-01

Larval dispersal trajectories and their resulting population connectivity patterns are known to be key drivers of population dynamics for many marine organisms. However, few studies to date have examined the temporal variability in population connectivity. Here, we model the larval dispersal and population connectivity of blue crabs in the northern Gulf of Mexico from 2003-2012 and use network analyses to understand how they vary over seasonal and inter-annual scales. We found that in all years, the Mississippi River Delta is a barrier to dispersal. Few larvae cross it and settle successfully. In some years (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009), 1-2 locations (Adams Bay and Chandeleur Sound) had high (> 0.3) betweenness centrality. These locations are likely to be important for maintaining population connectivity in the region, since more than 30% of larval pathways are predicted to pass through them. Connectivity matrices suggest that some estuaries have consistently high larval retention rates. These include West Cote Blanche Bay, Chandeleur Sound, and, in some years, Pensacola Bay and Atchafalaya Bay. Within the spawning season, we observe a decline in average vertex degree and average source strength in every year. This suggests that seasonal declines in the strength of along-shore currents produce consistent reductions in population connectivity through the spawning season.

Lower respiratory tract infection hospitalizations among American Indian/Alaska Native children and the general United States child population.

PubMed

Foote, Eric M; Singleton, Rosalyn J; Holman, Robert C; Seeman, Sara M; Steiner, Claudia A; Bartholomew, Michael; Hennessy, Thomas W

2015-01-01

The lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI)-associated hospitalization rate in American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) children aged <5 years declined during 1998-2008, yet remained 1.6 times higher than the general US child population in 2006-2008. Describe the change in LRTI-associated hospitalization rates for AI/AN children and for the general US child population aged <5 years. A retrospective analysis of hospitalizations with discharge ICD-9-CM codes for LRTI for AI/AN children and for the general US child population <5 years during 2009-2011 was conducted using Indian Health Service direct and contract care inpatient data and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, respectively. We calculated hospitalization rates and made comparisons to previously published 1998-1999 rates prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction. The average annual LRTI-associated hospitalization rate declined from 1998-1999 to 2009-2011 in AI/AN (35%, p<0.01) and the general US child population (19%, SE: 4.5%, p<0.01). The 2009-2011 AI/AN child average annual LRTI-associated hospitalization rate was 20.7 per 1,000, 1.5 times higher than the US child rate (13.7 95% CI: 12.6-14.8). The Alaska (38.9) and Southwest regions (27.3) had the highest rates. The disparity was greatest for infant (<1 year) pneumonia-associated and 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza-associated hospitalizations. Although the LRTI-associated hospitalization rate declined, the 2009-2011 AI/AN child rate remained higher than the US child rate, especially in the Alaska and Southwest regions. The residual disparity is likely multi-factorial and partly related to household crowding, indoor smoke exposure, lack of piped water and poverty. Implementation of interventions proven to reduce LRTI is needed among AI/AN children.

Quality of life after lacunar stroke: the Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes study.

PubMed

Dhamoon, Mandip S; McClure, Leslie A; White, Carole L; Lau, Helena; Benavente, Oscar; Elkind, Mitchell S V

2014-01-01

We sought to describe the course and predictors of quality of life (QOL) after lacunar stroke. We hypothesized that there is a decline in QOL after recovery from lacunar stroke. The Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes is a clinical trial in lacunar stroke patients with annual assessments of QOL with the stroke-specific QOL score. The overall score was used and analyzed as a continuous variable (range 0-5). We fit linear mixed models to assess the trend in QOL over time, assuming linearity of time, and adjusted for demographics, medical risk factors, cognitive factors, and functional status in univariable and multivariable models. Among 2870 participants, mean age was 63.4 years (SD 10.7), 63% were men, 51% White, 32% Hispanic, 36% had college education, 36% had diabetes, 89% had hypertension, and 10% had prior stroke. Mean poststroke Barthel Index (BI) score was 95.4 (assessed on average 6 months after stroke). In the final multivariable model, there was an average increase in QOL of .6% per year, and factors associated with decline in QOL over time included age (-.0003 per year, P < .0001), any college education (-.0013 per year, .01), prior stroke (-.004 per year, P < .0001), and BI (-.0002 per year, P < .0001). In this clinical trial of lacunar stroke patients, there was a slight annual increase in QOL overall, and age, level of education, and prior stroke were associated with changes in QOL over time. Multiple strokes may cause decline in QOL over time in the absence of recurrent events. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of ground water in the Houston District, Texas, 1970-74

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gabrysch, R.K.

1977-01-01

Total withdrawals of ground water in the Houston district, Texas , increased 9 percent from about 488 million gallons per day in 1970 to about 532 million gallons per day in 1974. The average annual rate of increase from 1960 to 1969 was about 6.3 percent. During 1970-74, increases in pumpage occurred in the Houston, Katy, and NASA areas; decreases occurred in the Pasadena and Alta Loma areas; and the pumpage in the Baytown-La Porte and Texas City areas remained almost constant. Water levels continued to decline throughout the district during 1970-74, but the rate of decline generally was not as great as in previous years. The greatest declines in the past several years were in the Houston area, but the center of decline is still in the Pasadena and Baytown-La Porte areas. The decrease in the rate of decline suggests that the aquifers in the Houston district could support the amount of pumping during 1970-74 with little, if any , further decline. Although saltwater encroachment has probably occurred in the district, particularly in Galveston County, no large increases in chloride were measured at the monitoring points. (Woodard-USGS)

Major mishaps among mobile offshore drilling units, 1955-1981: time trends and fatalities.

PubMed

Clemmer, D I; Diem, J E

1985-03-01

Major mishaps among mobile offshore drilling units worldwide from 1955-1981 were identified from industry and government sources. Based on annual numbers of rigs in service and typical staffing patterns, annual mishap rates and fatality rates for rig types and mishap categories were computed. While the frequency of major mishaps has increased in recent years, the mishap rate per 100 rig-years of service has remained stable. The overall stability obscures the fact that jack-up rigs have had an increasing mishap rate while the rate for other rig types combined has gradually declined. Although the fatal mishap rate has also remained constant, the annual fatality rate per 100 000 full time equivalent (FTE) workers has risen sharply. This can be attributed to increasing numbers of lives lost in environmental mishaps while deaths from operational mishaps have declined. There were 344 fatalities during the 27-year period. Although an average of some 13 deaths per year worldwide appears minimal, the relatively small size of the workforce gives this number significance particularly when it is noted that 'occupational' fatalities, those occurring in the course of routine operations, are not included. The overall fatality rate secondary to major mishaps was 84.3 per 100 000 FTE worker-years.

Hearing conservation in the primary aluminium industry.

PubMed

Donoghue, A M; Frisch, N; Dixon-Ernst, C; Chesson, B J; Cullen, M R

2016-04-01

Noise-induced hearing loss has been an intractable problem for heavy industry. To report our experience in reducing the incidence of age-corrected confirmed 10 dB hearing shifts (averaged over 2, 3 and 4 kHz) in employees in the primary aluminium industry in Australia over the period 2006-13. We analysed annual audiometric data to determine the number of permanent hearing shifts that occurred in employees in two bauxite mines, three alumina refineries and two aluminium smelters. Annual hearing shift rates were calculated based on the number of employees tested per year. Hearing conservation initiatives undertaken during the study period are described. An assessment of similar exposure group noise exposures was also undertaken to determine the magnitude of noise exposure reduction during the study period. Across all operations, hearing shift rates declined from 5.5% per year in 2006 to 1.3% per year in 2013 (P < 0.001). The decline in shift rates was greater in mines and refineries, where baseline shift rates were higher, than in smelter workers. Modest reductions in noise exposure occurred during the study period. We observed a substantial decline in hearing shift rates during the study period. We describe the hearing conservation initiatives that were collectively associated with this decline. We suspect these initiatives could be deployed relatively easily and at modest cost in other industries with noise-exposed employees. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine.

OCCURRENCE OF HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS OVER THE GRAND MODERN MAXIMUM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mursula, K.; Holappa, L.; Lukianova, R., E-mail: kalevi.mursula@oulu.fi

2015-03-01

In the declining phase of the solar cycle (SC), when the new-polarity fields of the solar poles are strengthened by the transport of same-signed magnetic flux from lower latitudes, the polar coronal holes expand and form non-axisymmetric extensions toward the solar equator. These extensions enhance the occurrence of high-speed solar wind (SW) streams (HSS) and related co-rotating interaction regions in the low-latitude heliosphere, and cause moderate, recurrent geomagnetic activity (GA) in the near-Earth space. Here, using a novel definition of GA at high (polar cap) latitudes and the longest record of magnetic observations at a polar cap station, we calculatemore » the annually averaged SW speeds as proxies for the effective annual occurrence of HSS over the whole Grand Modern Maximum (GMM) from 1920s onward. We find that a period of high annual speeds (frequent occurrence of HSS) occurs in the declining phase of each of SCs 16-23. For most cycles the HSS activity clearly reaches a maximum in one year, suggesting that typically only one strong activation leading to a coronal hole extension is responsible for the HSS maximum. We find that the most persistent HSS activity occurred in the declining phase of SC 18. This suggests that cycle 19, which marks the sunspot maximum period of the GMM, was preceded by exceptionally strong polar fields during the previous sunspot minimum. This gives interesting support for the validity of solar dynamo theory during this dramatic period of solar magnetism.« less

An evaluation of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) decline in the urban forest of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catton, H.A.; St., George; Remphrey, W.R.

2007-01-01

Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, has a large, indigenous population of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.). In the 1980s, many of these trees were showing signs of decline, a disease caused by a complex of abiotic and secondary biotic stressing agents. Potential causal factors were investigated by comparing various aspects of 120 bur oaks visually rated as healthy or declined based on crown dieback levels. The results indicated that many selected bur oak trees predated surrounding urban development and that declined trees were significantly older with more severe stem wounds and competition from surrounding trees than healthy specimens. Average annual growth ring widths of healthy and declined trees were similar in the early part of the 20th century. However, decline actually began decades before symptoms were noticed, coinciding with a period of in tense city-wide urban development, as growth of declined trees was slower than that of healthy trees beginning sporadically in the 1940s and consistently from 1974 to 2001. During the early years of decline, the year-by-year separation in ring width between the two categories was significantly positively related to precipitation levels. This suggested that in wet years, declined trees may have been surrounded by unfavorable water-logged soils, possibly as a result of natural drainage patterns being impeded by urban development. ?? 2007 International Society of Arboriculture.

Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010.

PubMed

Song, Xiao-Peng; Huang, Chengquan; Saatchi, Sassan S; Hansen, Matthew C; Townshend, John R

2015-01-01

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates-critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+-are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr(-1) and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr(-1) respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha(-1), ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha(-1)). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha(-1)•yr(-1) from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts.

Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010

PubMed Central

Song, Xiao-Peng; Huang, Chengquan; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Hansen, Matthew C.; Townshend, John R.

2015-01-01

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates―critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+―are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr−1 and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr−1 respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha−1, ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha−1). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha−1•yr−1 from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts. PMID:25951328

Demography of the Pryor Mountain wild horses, 1993-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roelle, James E.; Singer, Francis J.; Zeigenfuss, Linda C.; Ransom, Jason I.; Coates-Markle, Linda; Schoenecker, Kathryn A.

2010-01-01

Wild horses (Equus caballus) at Pryor Mountain were studied by direct observation from 1993 through 2007. All horses present were individually identifiable on the basis of coat coloration, head and leg markings, gender, and band associations. Of the 609 horses either present prior to foaling in 1993 or born since, ages were precisely known for 491 (observed as a foal). Ages for 52 horses were estimated through tooth eruption and wear patterns, and for the remaining 66 horses through body size, morphology, and anecdotal evidence concerning when they were present on the range. At varying intensities, never less than 30 days per year, all horses were inventoried and their band associations noted. Foals were paired with dams based on observations of attachment during the early days and weeks of life. Year of death was determined by identification of the carcass where possible. In the absence of finding a carcass, an animal that was not observed for 2 years was considered to have died in the year that it went missing. Animals that were removed from the herd and mares that were part of a contraception study were excluded from calculations of survival and foaling rates, respectively, as appropriate. The average prefoaling population over the 15 years of the study was 148.8 animals (range = 120-187), and the annual foal crop averaged 32.1 (range = 23-40). Large removals (19-60 animals) in four years helped maintain the herd at this level; apparent growth rate (calculated as though removals had not occurred) was 9.6 percent annually (? = 1.096, range = 0.977-1.220). This annual growth rate is relatively low compared to that for many western horse herds, at least in part because of a decline in foal survival. Sex ratio of the foal crop varied widely among years, but pooled across years did not differ from 50:50. Sex ratio in the herd changed mostly as a result of removals. The average age of both males and females in the herd increased during the course of the study. Annual survival of males did not differ from that of females, nor did gender affect annual survival of foals. Pooled across years, ages, and sexes, the annual survival rate was 0.899. Annual foal survival rate was 0.697 and declined through time, with a tendency toward recovery in 2005-2007. Foal survival was higher in larger bands, but did not differ between foals born to primiparous and multiparous mares. A few 2-year-old mares produced foals; foaling rate (excluding contracepted mares and foals they produced) increased through age 10, remained high through age 15, and declined thereafter. Overall foaling rate for mares =3 years of age was 0.576 foals per mare, with no apparent trend during the period of our study. Foaling rate in years following gathers was somewhat lower than in other years. There was a positive relation between foaling rate and band size. Primiparous mares were somewhat less likely to foal in the following year than were multiparous mares. Most stallions that acquired a harem did so at age 5 or 6, and the average age of harem stallions increased during our study. Most harems had 1-3 mares =2 years of age, but harem size varied with age of the stallion, increasing through about age 11 and declining thereafter. About 6 percent of bands had a satellite stallion (=5 years of age), but the mean number of mares did not differ between single- and multistallion bands. Most stallions left their natal band at age 2 or 3, but 17 percent remained with their natal band until age 4 or 5. Foal survival rate was positively related to precipitation, suggesting a possible link to forage production and availability mediated through mare fitness. There also was evidence for density-dependent population regulation, as both population growth rate and survival rate were negatively correlated with population size from the previous year. These and other factors were not sufficient to stabilize the population during our period of study, however, as evidenced by the necess

Prostate Brachytherapy Case Volumes by Academic and Nonacademic Practices: Implications for Future Residency Training

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orio, Peter F., E-mail: PORIO@lroc.harvard.edu; Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Nguyen, Paul L.

Purpose: The use of prostate brachytherapy has continued to decline in the United States. We examined the national practice patterns of both academic and nonacademic practices performing prostate brachytherapy by case volume per year to further characterize the decline and postulate the effect this trend might have on training the next generation of residents. Methods and Materials: Men diagnosed with prostate cancer who had undergone radiation therapy in 2004 to 2012 were identified. The annual brachytherapy case volume at each facility was determined and further categorized into ≤12 cases per year (ie, an average of ≤1 cases per month), 13more » to 52 cases per year, and ≥53 cases per year (ie, an average of ≥1 cases per week) in academic practices versus nonacademic practices. Results: In 2004 to 2012, academic practices performing an average of ≤1 brachytherapy cases per month increased from 56.4% to 73.7%. In nonacademic practices, this percentage increased from 60.2% to 77.4% (P<.0001 for both). Practices performing an average of ≥1 cases per week decreased among both academic practices (from 6.7% to 1.5%) and nonacademic practices (from 4.5% to 2.7%). Conclusions: Both academic and nonacademic radiation oncology practices have demonstrated a significant reduction in the use of prostate brachytherapy from 2004 to 2012. With the case volume continuing to decline, it is unclear whether we are prepared to train the next generation of residents in this critical modality.« less

Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; He, Cenlin

2018-01-01

In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. However, questions remain about how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the detrended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.; Yan, Y.

2017-12-01

In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Yet questions remain on how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over the recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the de-trended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

Spatial–temporal changes in potential evaporation patterns based on the Cloud model and their possible causes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Yuelu; Huang, Shengzhi; Chang, Jianxia

It is of importance to comprehensively investigate the spatial-temporal changes in potential evaporation patterns, which helps guide the long-term water resource allocation and irrigation managements. In this study, the Cloud model was adopted to quantify the average, uniformity, and stability of annual potential evaporation in the Wei River Basin (WRB), a typical arid and semi-arid region in China.. The cross wavelet analysis was then applied to explore the correlations between potential evaporation and Arctic Oscillation (AO)/El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with an aim to determine the possible causes of potential evaporation variations. Results indicated that: (1) the average of annualmore » potential evaporation in the WRB first declined and then increased, which was similar with its stability, whilst its dispersion degree exhibited a decreasing trend, implying that potential evaporation has a small inter-annual variation; (2) the average of potential evaporation in the western basin was obviously smaller than that in the other areas, while its uniformity and stability in the Guanzhong plain and the Loess Plateau areas are larger than those in other areas, particularly in the western basin where the uniformity and stability are the smallest; (3) both AO and ENSO exhibited strong correlations with potential evaporation variations, indicating that both AO and ENSO have played an important role in the annual potential evaporation variations in the WRB.« less

OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

For 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned about $404 billion in net oil export revenues (unadjusted for inflation). This represents a 46% decline from the $753 billion earned in 2014, mainly as a result of a precipitous fall in average annual crude oil prices during the year, and to a lesser extent to decreases in the level of OPEC net oil exports. The 2015 revenue total was the lowest earnings for OPEC since 2004.

Education and disability trends of older Americans, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Tsai, Yuping

2017-09-01

Trends in disability among older Americans has declined since the 1980s. The study examines whether the trend continues to decline and whether educational disparities exist in the prevalence of functional limitations. I used the 2000-2014 National Health Interview Survey and included adults aged ≥65 years. Functional limitations was measured by three outcomes: the need for help with activities of daily living (ADLs) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and physical function limitations. I used a set of logistic models to estimate the average annual change rate of functional limitations. I examined whether the annual rate of change differed by education, age group and sex. During 2000-2014, the annual increase rate of ADL limitations was 1.7% (P < 0.001) and was 2.0% (P < 0.001) for physical function limitations; IADL limitation did not change significantly. All subgroups experienced an increase in ADL and physical function limitations except for adults with a more than high school education. The lower-educated group had a higher proportion and a higher annual rate of increase in all outcomes. Increasing trends in chronic conditions may contribute to the increasing trend in functional limitations. The study highlighted a large educational disparity in late-life disability among older Americans. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Trends in hip fracture epidemiology in Australia: possible impact of bisphosphonates and hormone replacement therapy.

PubMed

Fisher, A A; O'Brien, E D; Davis, M W

2009-08-01

The purposes of this study were to analyse trends in hip fracture (HF) epidemiology over a 13-year period (1994-2007) in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), to assess the potential impact of concurrent changes in hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and bisphosphonate use and to present a new prediction of HFs in Australia up to 2021. Annual sex- and age-specific incidence rates (per 100,000 population) were determined and standardized using the Australian 2006 population. The projected number of HFs was estimated by two models applying age- and sex-specific HF rates averaged for 2002-2006 (model 1) or continuously changing as observed in this period (model 2, Poisson regression) to the projected population. In 2006 compared to 2001, the population > or = 60 years in the ACT increased by 19.7%. Over the last 5 years the average annual incidence HF rate compared to the previous 3-year period decreased in females > or = 60 years of age by 28.3%. Between 2001 and 2006 the number of prescriptions for HRT dispensed in the ACT declined by 54.6, while the number of prescriptions for bisphosphonate increased by 245%, accompanied by a decline in standardized incidence of HF rates of 36.4%, mainly in women (42.1%). This represents an annual cost for bisphosphonates per one prevented HF, of $A45,250 or $A576 person/year. Compared to 2006 the total number of HFs in Australia according to model 1 will increase in 2011 by 20.1% and in 2021 by 58.8%, but according to model 2 will decrease by 15.5% in 2011 and 27.5% in 2021. Our data suggest that the previously predicted rising trend in HFs in elderly women reversed, but did not so for men. This was coincident with a significant fall in HRT use and increased prescribing of bisphosphonates, which is cost-effective. However caution should be used in attributing causation as this is an ecological study. If trends in HF observed in 2002-2006 continue, the absolute number of HFs in Australia in 2011-2021 will stabilise or decline (which is more likely), despite the rapid ageing of the population.

Decline in spirometric variables in grain workers from start of employment: differential effect of duration of follow up.

PubMed Central

Zejda, J E; Pahwa, P; Dosman, J A

1992-01-01

Prospective study of 164 young men from the start of employment in grain elevators showed that of those seen at the initial evaluation of respiratory state only 30% were available for a complete four year follow up. The drop out of subjects could represent a health related selection leading to the underestimation of respiratory effects of exposure to grain dust as assessed in the survivor group. This hypothesis was examined by comparisons of longitudinal changes in lung function in four groups defined by the duration of follow up involving the initial examination and periodic evaluations after one, two, and four years of work. Sixty four men were tested only on the initial examination (group I), 18 underwent two (group II), 31 underwent three (group III), and 51 (group IV) all four examinations. The groups had similar mean ages (range: 19.4-20.1 years), mean duration of previous exposure to grain dust (range: 8-13 weeks), smoking habits, lung function, and prevalences of respiratory symptoms evaluated on the initial occasion. The average decline in lung function over the first year was associated with duration of follow up. The annual decline in FVC (ml) was 58 in group II, 41 in group III and -55 (increase) in group IV; the decline in FEV1 (ml) was 224, 130, and 70 respectively. The differences for the annual declines of FEV1, FEF25-759 Vmax509 and Vmax25 were significant between groups II and IV, and the FEF25-759 Vmax509 and Vmax25 differed significantly between groups II and III. The results show that the restriction of analysis to the survivors may underestimate the relation between work and respiratory impairment. PMID:1515349

Fasting Insulin Levels and Cognitive Decline in Older Women without Diabetes

PubMed Central

van Oijen, Marieke; Okereke, Olivia I.; Kang, Jae Hee; Pollak, Michael N.; Hu, Frank B.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Grodstein, Francine

2008-01-01

Background Type 2 diabetes has been associated with an increased risk of dementia. To assess possible independent effects of insulin, we investigated the relation of insulin levels to cognitive decline in nondiabetic women. Methods Fasting plasma insulin levels were measured in mid-life in 1,416 nondiabetic Nurses’ Health Study participants, who also completed cognitive testing that began 10 years later (current age: 70–75 years). Over 4 years, 3 assessments of general cognition, verbal memory, category fluency and attention were administered. Primary outcomes were the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) performance, the global score (average of all tests) and verbal memory (average of verbal recall tests). Linear mixed-effects models were used to calculate the association between insulin and cognitive decline. Results Higher insulin levels were associated with a faster decline on the TICS and verbal memory. For analysis, batch-specific quartiles of insulin levels were constructed. Compared to the lowest quartile, adjusted differences in the annual rates of decline (with 95% CI values in parentheses) for the second, third and fourth quartiles were: TICS, −0.06 (−0.16, 0.03), −0.14 (−0.24, −0.04), and −0.09 (−0.19, 0.01) points (p trend = 0.04); verbal memory, −0.01 (−0.04, 0.02), −0.05 (−0.08, −0.02), and −0.02 (−0.05, 0.01) units (p trend = 0.02). These associations remained after multivariable adjustment. Conclusions Our study provides evidence for a potential role of higher fasting insulin levels in cognitive decline, possibly independent of diabetes. PMID:18421217

Wet, Dry, Dim, or Bright? The Future of Water Resources in North Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brikowski, T. H.

2009-12-01

Future water resource availability in North Texas (Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex) is likely to be limited by the combined impact of decadal-scale and longer term climate changes. Two decadal precipitation anomalies are statistically distinguishable in the historical record (dry/wet, Table 1). These correspond temporally with the onset of global dimming/brightening events (hydrologic cycle retardation/acceleration) respectively (Table 1). Surface water hydrologic parameters are variably correlated with these events, depending on the degree of time-integration of each process. Precipitation correlates most strongly with the decadal anomalies. Runoff changes during these periods were magnified relative to precipitation changes, presumably an effect of soil moisture changes, and over the basin as a whole correlate best with the global events. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) attempts to capture such effects, and also correlates most strongly with the global events. The most important time-integrators of the system, reservoirs, show mixed correlation in terms of total storage with the decadal and longer term climate periods. Reservoir flood releases (excess storage) correlate with decadal precipitation anomalies, in part reflecting short-term consumption influences. Major reservoirs in the area post-date the dry period, precluding direct evaluation of sustainability from historical records. Historical correlations versus PDSI can be combined with climate-model based PDSI projections to evaluate future sustainability. Climate projections based on a mean of 19 IPCC intermediate scenario (SRESa1b) models indicate an approximately 10% reduction in mean annual precipitation, and warming of 2oC by 2050 in this region. Steady lowering of mean annual PDSI results, with a 50% probability that annual PDSI will average -0.5 by 2050. Average climate will move from humid (Aridity Index=35) to semi-humid (AI=27), and runoff can be expected to decline accordingly. Probability of a continuous two-year drought, historically sufficient to trigger Stage 3 drought restrictions, more than doubles to 15%/yr by 2050. Based on least-squares fit of historical PDSI and streamflow, median predicted watershed runoff declines by 23%. This reduction brings projected reservoir input to approximately the same value as current annual consumption from those reservoirs. These projected reservoir inflow changes would limit water supply sustainability in North Texas. Inflow declines are similar whether caused by recurrence of observed decadal precipitation variations or long term climate change. The magnitude of these declines (20%) is similar to projected shortfalls based only on population growth by 2050. Evidently both a serious conservation program and currently planned water importation projects will be required to maintain water supply in North Texas.Table 1: Departures from mean and probability that change is random for indicated climate periods

Estimates of average annual tributary inflow to the lower Colorado River, Hoover Dam to Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Owen-Joyce, Sandra J.

1987-01-01

Estimates of tributary inflow by basin or area and by surface water or groundwater are presented in this report and itemized by subreaches in tabular form. Total estimated average annual tributary inflow to the Colorado River between Hoover Dam and Mexico, excluding the measured tributaries, is 96,000 acre-ft or about 1% of the 7.5 million acre-ft/yr of Colorado River water apportioned to the States in the lower Colorado River basin. About 62% of the tributary inflow originates in Arizona, 30% in California, and 8% in Nevada. Tributary inflow is a small component in the water budget for the river. Most of the quantities of unmeasured tributary inflow were estimated in previous studies and were based on mean annual precipitation for 1931-60. Because mean annual precipitation for 1951-80 did not differ significantly from that of 1931-60, these tributary inflow estimates are assumed to be valid for use in 1984. Measured average annual runoff per unit drainage area on the Bill Williams River has remained the same. Surface water inflow from unmeasured tributaries is infrequent and is not captured in surface reservoirs in any of the States; it flows to the Colorado River gaging stations. Estimates of groundwater inflow to the Colorad River valley. Average annual runoff can be used in a water budget; although in wet years, runoff may be large enough to affect the calculation of consumptive use and to be estimated from hydrographs for the Colorado River valley are based on groundwater recharge estimates in the bordering areas, which have not significantly changed through time. In most areas adjacent to the Colorado River valley, groundwater pumpage is small and pumping has not significantly affected the quantity of groundwater discharged to the Colorado River valley. In some areas where groundwater pumpage exceeds the quantity of groundwater discharge and water levels have declined, the quantity of discharge probably has decreased and groundwater inflow to the Colorado River valley will eventually be reduced if not stopped completely. Groundwater discharged at springs below Hoover Dam is unused and flows directly to the Colorado River. (Lantz-PTT)

Cognitive Decline Is Associated with Risk Aversion and Temporal Discounting in Older Adults without Dementia

PubMed Central

James, Bryan D.; Boyle, Patricia A.; Yu, Lei; Han, S. Duke; Bennett, David A.

2015-01-01

Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that subtle age-related changes in cognition can detrimentally affect individual preferences that are critical for maintaining health and well being. PMID:25838074

Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

PubMed

James, Bryan D; Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Han, S Duke; Bennett, David A

2015-01-01

Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that subtle age-related changes in cognition can detrimentally affect individual preferences that are critical for maintaining health and well being.

Organic Seston Dynamics in Upland Neotropical Streams: Implications for Amphibian Declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, S. D.; Colon-Gaud, C.; Whiles, M. R.; Hunte-Brown, M.; Connelly, S.; Kilham, S.; Pringle, C. M.; Lips, K. R.; Brenes, R.

2005-05-01

Organic seston represents food for filter feeders and a mechanism for downstream transport of energy and nutrients. As part of a study assessing the ecological impacts of stream-breeding anuran extirpations, we examined seston dynamics in 2 stream reaches with tadpoles (El Cope) and 2 without (Fortuna) in the Panamanian uplands. All reaches are high gradient with annual average discharge ranging from 46-102 L/s. Samples were collected multiple times per month at various discharges, sieved into fine (<754μm, >98μm) and very fine (<98μm, >1.6μm) fractions, and processed to estimate ash-free dry mass (AFDM), total C, and total N. Average annual concentrations ranged from 0.52- 2.51 mg/L (fine) and 2.04-3.14 mg/L (very fine), and total export ranged from 0.27-7,981 mg/s across all streams. On average, very fine particles comprised 78% of export from El Cope sites and 61% from Fortuna streams. Average total N export ranged from 5.32-30.53 mg/s in El Cope sites and 1.71-6.04 mg/s at Fortuna. Average particle quality (C/N) in El Cope streams was higher (7.6) than Fortuna streams (11.5). Lower export of very fine particles and lower seston quality in Fortuna streams suggests the loss of tadpoles may influence seston dynamics and quality in these systems.

Duration of the Arctic sea ice melt season: Regional and interannual variability, 1979-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belchansky, G.I.; Douglas, David C.; Platonov, Nikita G.

2004-01-01

Melt onset dates, freeze onset dates, and melt season duration were estimated over Arctic sea ice, 1979–2001, using passive microwave satellite imagery and surface air temperature data. Sea ice melt duration for the entire Northern Hemisphere varied from a 104-day minimum in 1983 and 1996 to a 124-day maximum in 1989. Ranges in melt duration were highest in peripheral seas, numbering 32, 42, 44, and 51 days in the Laptev, Barents-Kara, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas, respectively. In the Arctic Ocean, average melt duration varied from a 75-day minimum in 1987 to a 103-day maximum in 1989. On average, melt onset in annual ice began 10.6 days earlier than perennial ice, and freeze onset in perennial ice commenced 18.4 days earlier than annual ice. Average annual melt dates, freeze dates, and melt durations in annual ice were significantly correlated with seasonal strength of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Following high-index AO winters (January–March), spring melt tended to be earlier and autumn freeze later, leading to longer melt season durations. The largest increases in melt duration were observed in the eastern Siberian Arctic, coincident with cyclonic low pressure and ice motion anomalies associated with high-index AO phases. Following a positive AO shift in 1989, mean annual melt duration increased 2–3 weeks in the northern East Siberian and Chukchi Seas. Decreasing correlations between consecutive-year maps of melt onset in annual ice during 1979–2001 indicated increasing spatial variability and unpredictability in melt distributions from one year to the next. Despite recent declines in the winter AO index, recent melt distributions did not show evidence of reestablishing spatial patterns similar to those observed during the 1979–88 low-index AO period. Recent freeze distributions have become increasingly similar to those observed during 1979–88, suggesting a recurrent spatial pattern of freeze chronology under low-index AO conditions.

Relative efficiency and productivity: a preliminary exploration of public hospitals in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Third-grade hospitals in Beijing have been rapidly developing in capacity and scale for many years. These hospitals receive a large number of patients, and ensuring their efficient operation is crucial in meeting people’s healthcare needs. In this context, a study of their relative efficiency and productivity would be helpful to identify the driving factors and further improve their performance. Methods After a review of literature, the current numbers of open beds and employees were selected as input variables. The number of outpatient and emergency visits and the number of discharged patients were selected as output variables. A total of 12 third-grade Class A general public hospitals in Beijing were selected for a preliminary study. The panel data from 2006–2009 were collected by the National Institute of Hospital Administration, Ministry of Health of P.R. China. Descriptive analysis and data envelopment analysis were used to analyze the data using Stata 10.0 and DEAP(V2.1) software. Results In the 2006–2009 period, descriptive results show that sample hospitals continuously expanded their capacity and scale, with growth rate of total revenue being the highest among all variables. The DEA results show that the average annual growth rate of productivity was 26.7%, and the rates were 47.3%, 21.3% and 13.8% respectively for two consecutive years. The average annual growth rate of technological change was 28.3%, and the rates were 49.4%, 21.5% and 16.4% respectively for two consecutive years. The average annual growth rate of technical efficiency change was -1.3%, and the rates were -1.4%, -0.02% and -2.2% respectively for two consecutive years. Conclusions The sample hospitals in Beijing experienced substantial productivity growth, but annual growth rates were declining. Substantial technological change was the main contributor to the growth. Although some hospitals exhibited improvements in technical efficiency, there was a slight decline in general. To improve overall efficiency and productivity, both government and hospitals need to further drive positive technological change, technical change, and allocative efficiency of public hospitals. More empirical studies are needed to include more hospitals of all three grades at a larger scale. PMID:24708701

Community-based intervention packages facilitated by NGOs demonstrate plausible evidence for child mortality impact.

PubMed

Ricca, Jim; Kureshy, Nazo; LeBan, Karen; Prosnitz, Debra; Ryan, Leo

2014-03-01

Evidence exists that community-based intervention packages can have substantial child and newborn mortality impact, and may help more countries meet Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) targets. A non-governmental organization (NGO) project using such programming in Mozambique documented an annual decline in under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 9.3% in a province in which Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data showed a 4.2% U5MR decline during the same period. To test the generalizability of this finding, the same analysis was applied to a group of projects funded by the US Agency for International Development. Projects supported implementation of community-based intervention packages aimed at increasing use of health services while improving preventive and home-care practices for children under five. All projects collect baseline and endline population coverage data for key child health interventions. Twelve projects fitted the inclusion criteria. U5MR decline was estimated by modelling these coverage changes in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and comparing with concurrent measured DHS mortality data. Average coverage changes for all interventions exceeded average concurrent trends. When population coverage changes were modelled in LiST, they were estimated to give a child mortality improvement in the project area that exceeded concurrent secular trend in the subnational DHS region in 11 of 12 cases. The average improvement in modelled U5MR (5.8%) was more than twice the concurrent directly measured average decline (2.5%). NGO projects implementing community-based intervention packages appear to be effective in reducing child mortality in diverse settings. There is plausible evidence that they raised coverage for a variety of high-impact interventions and improved U5MR by more than twice the concurrent secular trend. All projects used community-based strategies that achieved frequent interpersonal contact for health behaviour change. Further study of the effectiveness and scalability of similar packages should be part of the effort to accelerate progress towards MDG 4.

Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnell, Peter

2016-04-01

It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

Human activity and climate variability impacts on sediment discharge and runoff in the Yellow River of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yi; Wang, Fei; Mu, Xingmin; Guo, Lanqin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju

2017-07-01

We analyze the variability of sediment discharge and runoff in the Hekou-Longmen segment in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Our analysis is based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), sediment discharge, runoff, and monthly meteorological data (1961-2010). The climate conditions are controlled via monthly regional average precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) that are calculated with the Penman-Monteith method. Data regarding water and soil conservation infrastructure and their effects were investigated as causal factors of runoff and sediment discharge changes. The results indicated the following conclusions: (1) The sediment concentration, sediment discharge, and annual runoff, varied considerably during the study period and all of these factors exhibited larger coefficients of variation than ET0 and precipitation. (2) Sediment discharge, annual runoff, and sediment concentration significantly declined over the study period in a linear fashion. This was accompanied by an increase in ET0 and decline in precipitation that were not significant. (3) Within paired years with similar precipitation and potential evapotranspiration conditions (SPEC), all pairs showed a decline in runoff, sediment discharge, and sediment concentration. (4) Human impacts in this region were markedly high as indicated by NDVI, and soil and water measurements, and especially the soil and water conservation infrastructure resulting in an approximately 312 Mt year-1 of sediment deposition during 1960-1999.

Factors influencing wild turkey hen survival in southcentral Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, M.W.; Garner, D.L.; Klaas, E.E.

1999-01-01

A decline in the population of eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) in southcentral Iowa necessitated more current estimates of population parameters. Survival of 126 eastern wild turkey hens in southcentral Iowa was investigated during 1993-96. Estimates of annual survival averaged 0.676 ?? 0.048% (x?? ?? SE) for adults and 0.713 ?? 0.125 for subadults. Mammalian predators, primarily coyotes (Canis latrans) and red fox (Vulpes fulva) accounted for 64% of all documented mortality. Age-specific annual survival distributions differed within years (P < 0.03), but no difference was detected in survival between age classes across years (P = 0.49). Based on chronological dates, survival of adult hens differed among seasons across years (P = 0.03). However, seasonal survival was not different when estimates were based on hen behavior (p = 0.48). Risk of mortality for hens increased by 2.0% for every 100-m increase in dispersal distance, decreased by 2.0% for every 10-ha increase in home range size, and decreased by 3.5% for each 1.0% increase in proportion of home range in woody cover. Although the exact cause of the population decline remains unknown, we suggest it was more likely related to a decrease in production than changes in hen survival. Declining turkey populations would likely benefit more from management designed to increase reproduction rather than hen survival.

Observed trends in ambient concentrations of C 2-C 8 hydrocarbons in the United Kingdom over the period from 1993 to 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dollard, G. J.; Dumitrean, P.; Telling, S.; Dixon, J.; Derwent, R. G.

Hourly measurements of up to 26 C 2-C 8 hydrocarbons have been made at eight urban background sites, three urban-industrial sites, a kerbside and a rural site in the UK from 1993 onwards up until the end of December 2004. Average annual mean benzene and 1,3-butadiene concentrations at urban background locations have declined at about -20% per year and the observed declines have exactly mimicked the inferred declines in benzene and 1,3-butadiene emissions over the same period. Ninety-day rolling mean concentrations of ethylene, propylene, n- and i-butane, n- and i-pentane, isoprene and propane at urban and rural sites have also declined steadily by between -10% and -30% per year. Rolling mean concentrations of acetylene, 2- and 3-methylpentane, n-hexane, n-heptane, cis- and trans-but-2-ene, cis- and trans-pent-2-ene, toluene, ethylbenzene and o-, m- and p-xylene at a roadside location in London have all declined at between -14% and -21% per year. These declines demonstrate that motor vehicle exhaust catalysts and evaporative canisters have effectively and efficiently controlled vehicular emissions of hydrocarbons in the UK. Urban ethane concentrations arising largely from natural gas leakage have remained largely unchanged over this same period.

Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5 Models: the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Yang, Q.; Overland, J. E.; Stabeno, P. J.

2016-12-01

With fast declining of sea ice cover in the Arctic, the timing of sea ice break-up and freeze-up is an urgent economic, social and scientific issue. Based on daily sea ice concentration data we assess three parameters: the dates of sea ice break-up and freeze-up and the annual sea ice duration in the Pacific Arctic. The sea ice duration is shrinking, with the largest trend during the past decade (1990-2015); this declining trend will continue based on CMIP5 model projections. The seven CMIP5 models used in current study are able to simulate all three parameters well when compared with observations. Comparisons made at eight Chukchi Sea mooring sites and the eight Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) boxes show consistent results as well. The 30-year averaged trend for annual sea ice duration is projected to be -0.68 days/year to -1.2 days/year for 2015-2044. This is equivalent 20 to 36 days reduction in the annual sea ice duration. A similar magnitude of the negative trend is also found at all eight DBO boxes. The reduction in annual sea ice duration will include both earlier break-up dates and later freeze-up date. However, models project that a later freeze-up contributes more than early break-up to the overall shortening of annual sea ice duration. Around the Bering Strait future changes are the smallest, with less than 20-days change in duration during next 30 years. Upto 60 days reduction of the sea ice duration is projected for the decade of 2030-2044 in the East Siberia, the Chukchi and the Beaufort Seas.

Palila abundance estimates and trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banko, Paul C.; Brink, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard

2014-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2014 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2013 population was estimated at 1,492−2,132 birds (point estimate: 1,799) and the 2014 population was estimated at 1,697−2,508 (point estimate: 2,070). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2014, and there was no difference in their detection probability due to count sequence. This suggests that greater precision in population estimates can be achieved if future surveys include repeat visits. No palila were detected outside the core survey area in 2013 or 2014, suggesting that most if not all palila inhabit the western slope during the survey period. Since 2003, the size of the area containing all annual palila detections do not indicate a significant change among years, suggesting that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2003, palila numbers fluctuated moderately (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.21). After peaking in 2003, population estimates declined steadily through 2011; since 2010, estimates have fluctuated moderately above the 2011 minimum (CV = 0.18). The average rate of decline during 1998−2014 was 167 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall declining trend in abundance. Over the 16-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 68% decline in the population.

Annual primary production: Patterns and mechanisms of change in a nutrient-rich tidal ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jassby, Alan D.; Cloern, James E.; Cole, B.E.

2002-01-01

Although nutrient supply often underlies long-term changes in aquatic primary production, other regulatory processes can be important. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a complex of tidal waterways forming the landward portion of the San Francisco Estuary, has ample nutrient supplies, enabling us to examine alternate regulatory mechanisms over a 21-yr period. Delta-wide primary productivity was reconstructed from historical water quality data for 1975–1995. Annual primary production averaged 70 g C m−2, but it varied by over a factor of five among years. At least four processes contributed to this variability: (1) invasion of the clam Potamocorbula amurensis led to a persistent decrease in phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) after 1986; (2) a long-term decline in total suspended solids—probably at least partly because of upstream dam construction—increased water transparency and phytoplankton growth rate; (3) river inflow, reflecting climate variability, affected biomass through fluctuations in flushing and growth rates through fluctuations in total suspended solids; and (4) an additional pathway manifesting as a long-term decline in winter phytoplankton biomass has been identified, but its genesis is uncertain. Overall, the Delta lost 43% in annual primary production during the period. Given the evidence for food limitation of primary consumers, these findings provide a partial explanation for widespread Delta species declines over the past few decades. Turbid nutrient-rich systems such as the Delta may be inherently more variable than other tidal systems because certain compensatory processes are absent. Comparisons among systems, however, can be tenuous because conclusions about the magnitude and mechanisms of variability are dependent on length of data record.  

Lung Function before and after a Large Chlorine Gas Release in Graniteville, South Carolina

PubMed Central

Karmaus, Wilfried J. J.; Mohr, Lawrence C.; Cai, Bo; Balte, Pallavi; Gibson, James J.; Ownby, Dennis; Lawson, Andrew B.; Vena, John E.; Svendsen, Erik R.

2016-01-01

Rationale: On January 6, 2005 a train derailment led to an estimated 54,915-kg release of chlorine at a local textile mill in Graniteville, South Carolina. Objectives: We used the employee health spirometry records of the textile to identify enduring effects of chlorine gas exposure resulting from the incident on the lung function of workers employed at the textile mill. Methods: Spirometry records from 1,807 mill workers (7,332 observations) were used from 4 years before and 18 months after the disaster. Longitudinal analysis using marginal regression models produced annual population mean estimates for FEV1, FVC, and FEV1/FVC ratio. Covariate adjustment was made for sex, age, smoking, height, season tested, technician, obesity, season × year interactions, and smoker × year interactions. The increased prevalence of mill workers having accelerated FEV1 decline was also evaluated after the chlorine spill. Measurements and Main Results: In the year of the accident, we observed a significant reduction in mean FEV1 (–4.2% predicted; P = 0.019) when compared with the year before the incident. In the second year, partial recovery in the mean FVC % predicted level was seen, but the cohort’s average FEV1/FVC ratio continued to decrease over time. Severe annual FEV1 decline was most prevalent in the year of the accident, and independent of mill worker smoking status. Conclusions: The Graniteville mill worker cohort revealed significant reductions in lung function immediately after the chlorine incident. Improvement was seen in the second year; but the proportion of mill workers experiencing accelerated FEV1 annual decline significantly increased in the 18 months after the chlorine incident. PMID:26695511

2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

Evaluation of the national control of diarrhoeal disease programme in the Philippines, 1980-93.

PubMed Central

Baltazar, Jane C.; Nadera, Dinah P.; Victora, Cesar G.

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the National Control of Diarrhoeal Disease Programme (NCDDP) in the Philippines over the period 1980-93, describing levels and trends in programme activities, and relating them to severe diarrhoea morbidity and mortality among under-5-year-olds. METHODS: Routinely collected data on morbidity and mortality trends were obtained from health statistics reports of the Health Intelligence Service and the NCDDP. Socioeconomic indicators, including annual average family income and expenditures, gross national product, and unemployment rates, were derived from the Philippine population census data collected by the National Statistics Office. FINDINGS: In relation to baseline levels, diarrhoea mortality among infants and young children fell by about 5% annually over the 18-year period under review. The decline was faster than those related to acute respiratory infections (ARIs) among children of similar age and to perinatal causes. Diarrhoea hospital admission rates registered an annual decline of 2.4% relative to the baseline level. CONCLUSION:These findings suggest that the programme had a substantial impact; the period under review also witnessed some degree of improvement in other factors with positive influences on health, such as exclusive breastfeeding, nutrition and environmental sanitation. The quality, particularly completeness and reliability, of the existing data did not allow further analysis, thus, making it difficult to conclude beyond doubt that the observed trends indicate that they were solely due to NCDDP. PMID:12219155

Risk factors for lung function decline in a large cohort of young cystic fibrosis patients.

PubMed

Cogen, Jonathan; Emerson, Julia; Sanders, Don B; Ren, Clement; Schechter, Michael S; Gibson, Ronald L; Morgan, Wayne; Rosenfeld, Margaret

2015-08-01

To identify novel risk factors and corroborate previously identified risk factors for mean annual decline in FEV1% predicted in a large, contemporary, United States cohort of young cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. Retrospective observational study of participants in the EPIC Observational Study, who were Pseudomonas-negative and ≤12 years of age at enrollment in 2004-2006. The associations between potential demographic, clinical, and environmental risk factors evaluated during the baseline year and subsequent mean annual decline in FEV1 percent predicted were evaluated using generalized estimating equations. The 946 participants in the current analysis were followed for a mean of 6.2 (SD 1.3) years. Mean annual decline in FEV1% predicted was 1.01% (95%CI 0.85-1.17%). Children with one or no F508del mutations had a significantly smaller annual decline in FEV1 compared to F508del homozygotes. In a multivariable model, risk factors during the baseline year associated with a larger subsequent mean annual lung function decline included female gender, frequent or productive cough, low BMI (<66th percentile, median in the cohort), ≥1 pulmonary exacerbation, high FEV1 (≥115% predicted, in the top quartile), and respiratory culture positive for methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant S. aureus, or Stenotrophomonas maltophilia. We have identified a range of risk factors for FEV1 decline in a large cohort of young, CF patients who were Pa negative at enrollment, including novel as well as previously identified characteristics. These results could inform the design of a clinical trial in which rate of FEV1 decline is the primary endpoint and identify high-risk groups that may benefit from closer monitoring. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Annual temperature anomaly trends correlate with coral reef trajectory across the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegl, B. M.; Wieters, E.; Bruckner, A.; Purkis, S.

2013-05-01

The future survival of coral reefs depends on the envelope of critical climatic conditions determining the severity of impacts on the ecosystem. While coral health is strongly determined by extreme heat events, that lead to bleaching and often death, chronic "heat loading" may also disadvantage corals by making them more susceptible to, for example, diseases. On the other hand, it has been shown that coral living in hotter areas have higher bleaching thresholds and may be affected by less mortality at extreme events. This level at which heat anomalies lead to coral mortality varies widely across oceans, from ~31 deg C across the Caribbean to ~32 deg C in the Great Barrier Reef to 37.5 deg C in the Persian/Arabian Gulf. Thus, there clearly exists local adaptation and the extremes required to kill reefs strongly vary among regions. This could be be interpreted as suggesting that as long as bleaching temperatures are not reached, increased overall heat content expressed by a positive annual thermal anomaly, might actually foster coral resilience. Is there evidence for or against such an argument? Bleaching events have been occurring worldwide with variable recurrence and variable subsequent recovery. Despite demonstrated adaptation to higher-than-usual mean summer temperatures, reefs in the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea are on a declining trajectory. This coincides with consistent warming in the region. Mean annual anomalies of ocean temperature (since 1870) and atmospheric temperatures (since 1950) increase throughout the region. Since 1994 (Red Sea) and 1998 (southern Arabian Gulf) all mean annual anomalies have been positive and this period has coincided with repeated, severe bleaching events. In the Eastern Pacific (Galapagos and Easter Island), the trend of mean annual temperature anomalies has been declining and coral cover has been increasing. Thus, trends in coral cover and mean annual anomaly are negatively correlated in both regions. Despite strong impacts due to bleaching in 1983 and 1998, and increasing variance in anomalies (both positive and negative) the E-Pacific presently maintains an upward trend in coral cover and colony frequency. In the Red Sea , variance in anomalies increased but exclusively towards positive values. In the Gulf, variance declined towards stronger and only positive anomalies. In both regions, this raised thermal envelope is associated with reef decline. This is most dramatic in the Gulf, with six bleaching events since 1996, but also obvious in the Red Sea (bleaching in 1998, 2005 and 2010). Both Gulf and Red Sea suffer also from other mortality factors, such as diseases and predator outbreaks. Decline in reef health is therefore not uniquely linked to bleaching, but other mortality factors are also linked to changes in the thermal envelope. Chronic effects of increased average temperatures seem to define a reef trajectory more closely than the effects of individual, albeit strong, episodic disturbances.

Cognitive Decline in Older Persons Initiating Anticholinergic Medications

PubMed Central

Shah, Raj C.; Janos, Alicia L.; Kline, Julia E.; Yu, Lei; Leurgans, Sue E.; Wilson, Robert S.; Wei, Peter; Bennett, David A.; Heilman, Kenneth M.; Tsao, Jack W.

2013-01-01

Background This study examines the effect of initiating medications with anticholinergic activity on the cognitive functions of older persons. Methods Participants were 896 older community-dwelling, Catholic clergy without baseline dementia. Medication data was collected annually. The Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden Scale was utilized to identify use of a medication with probable or definite anticholinergic activity. Participants had at least two annual cognitive evaluations. Results Over a mean follow-up of 10 years, the annual rate of global cognitive function decline for never users, prevalent users, and incident users was −0.062 (SE = 0.005), −0.081(SE = 0.011), and −0.096 (SE = 0.007) z-score units/year, respectively. Compared to never users, incident users had a more rapid decline (difference = −0.034 z-score units/year, SE = 0.008, p<0.001) while prevalent users did not have a significantly more rapid decline (p = 0.1). Conclusions Older persons initiating a medication with anticholinergic activity have a steeper annual decline in cognitive functioning than those who are not taking these medications. PMID:23741303

Influence of declining mean annual rainfall on the behavior and yield of sediment and particulate organic carbon from tropical watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, Ayron M.; MacKenzie, Richard A.; Giardina, Christian P.; Bruland, Gregory L.

2018-04-01

The capacity to forecast climate and land-use driven changes to runoff, soil erosion and sediment transport in the tropics is hindered by a lack of long-term data sets and model study systems. To address these issues we utilized three watersheds characterized by similar shape, geology, soils, vegetation cover, and land use arranged across a 900 mm gradient in mean annual rainfall (MAR). Using this space-for-time design, we quantified suspended sediment (SS) and particulate organic carbon (POC) export over 18 months to examine how large-scale climate trends (MAR) affect sediment supply and delivery patterns (hysteresis) in tropical watersheds. Average daily SS yield ranged from 0.128 to 0.618 t km- 2 while average daily POC ranged from 0.002 to 0.018 t km- 2. For the largest storm events, we found that sediment delivery exhibited similar clockwise hysteresis patterns among the watersheds, with no significant differences in the similarity function between watershed pairs, indicating that: (1) in-stream and near-stream sediment sources drive sediment flux; and (2) the shape and timing of hysteresis is not affected by MAR. With declining MAR, the ratio of runoff to baseflow and inter-storm length between pulse events both increased. Despite increases in daily rainfall and the number of days with large rainfall events increasing with MAR, there was a decline in daily SS yield possibly due to the exhaustion of sediment supply by frequent runoff events in high MAR watersheds. By contrast, mean daily POC yield increased with increasing MAR, possibly as a result of increased soil organic matter decomposition, greater biomass, or increased carbon availability in higher MAR watersheds. We compared results to modeled values using the Load Estimator (LOADEST) FORTRAN model, confirming the negative relationship between MAR and sediment yield. However, because of its dependency on mean daily flow, LOADEST tended to under predict sediment yield, a result of its poor ability to capture the high variability in tropical streamflow. Taken together, results indicate that declines in MAR can have contrasting effects on hydrological processes in tropical watersheds, with consequences for instream ecology, downstream water users, and nearshore habitat.

Occupation and three-year incidence of respiratory symptoms and lung function decline: the ARIC Study.

PubMed

Mirabelli, Maria C; London, Stephanie J; Charles, Luenda E; Pompeii, Lisa A; Wagenknecht, Lynne E

2012-03-20

Specific occupations are associated with adverse respiratory health. Inhalation exposures encountered in these jobs may place workers at risk of new-onset respiratory disease. We analyzed data from 8,967 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a longitudinal cohort study. Participants included in this analysis were free of chronic cough and phlegm, wheezing, asthma, chronic bronchitis, emphysema, and other chronic lung conditions at the baseline examination, when they were aged 45-64 years. Using data collected in the baseline and first follow-up examination, we evaluated associations between occupation and the three-year incidence of cough, phlegm, wheezing, and airway obstruction and changes in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) measured by spirometry. All associations were adjusted for age, cigarettes per day, race, smoking status, and study center. During the approximately three-year follow-up, the percentage of participants developing chronic cough was 3%; chronic phlegm, 3%; wheezing, 3%; and airway obstruction, defined as FEV1 < lower limit of normal (LLN) and FEV1/FVC < LLN, 2%. The average annual declines in FEV1 and FVC were 56 mL and 66 mL, respectively, among men and 40 mL and 52 mL, respectively, among women. Relative to a referent category of managerial and administrative support occupations, elevated risks of new-onset chronic cough and chronic phlegm were observed for mechanics and repairers (chronic cough: RR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.02, 3.21; chronic phlegm: RR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.23, 3.57) and cleaning and building service workers (chronic cough: RR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.01, 3.37; chronic phlegm: RR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.27, 4.08). Despite the elevated risk of new-onset symptoms, employment in cleaning and building services was associated with attenuated lung function decline, particularly among men, who averaged annual declines in FEV1 and FVC of 14 mL and 23 mL, respectively, less than the declines observed in the referent population. Employment in mechanic and repair jobs and cleaning and building service occupations are associated with increased incidence of respiratory symptoms. Specific occupations affect the respiratory health of adults without pre-existing respiratory health symptoms and conditions, though long-term health consequences of inhalation exposures in these jobs remain largely unexplored.

Occupation and three-year incidence of respiratory symptoms and lung function decline: the ARIC Study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Specific occupations are associated with adverse respiratory health. Inhalation exposures encountered in these jobs may place workers at risk of new-onset respiratory disease. Methods We analyzed data from 8,967 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a longitudinal cohort study. Participants included in this analysis were free of chronic cough and phlegm, wheezing, asthma, chronic bronchitis, emphysema, and other chronic lung conditions at the baseline examination, when they were aged 45-64 years. Using data collected in the baseline and first follow-up examination, we evaluated associations between occupation and the three-year incidence of cough, phlegm, wheezing, and airway obstruction and changes in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) measured by spirometry. All associations were adjusted for age, cigarettes per day, race, smoking status, and study center. Results During the approximately three-year follow-up, the percentage of participants developing chronic cough was 3%; chronic phlegm, 3%; wheezing, 3%; and airway obstruction, defined as FEV1 < lower limit of normal (LLN) and FEV1/FVC < LLN, 2%. The average annual declines in FEV1 and FVC were 56 mL and 66 mL, respectively, among men and 40 mL and 52 mL, respectively, among women. Relative to a referent category of managerial and administrative support occupations, elevated risks of new-onset chronic cough and chronic phlegm were observed for mechanics and repairers (chronic cough: RR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.02, 3.21; chronic phlegm: RR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.23, 3.57) and cleaning and building service workers (chronic cough: RR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.01, 3.37; chronic phlegm: RR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.27, 4.08). Despite the elevated risk of new-onset symptoms, employment in cleaning and building services was associated with attenuated lung function decline, particularly among men, who averaged annual declines in FEV1 and FVC of 14 mL and 23 mL, respectively, less than the declines observed in the referent population. Conclusions Employment in mechanic and repair jobs and cleaning and building service occupations are associated with increased incidence of respiratory symptoms. Specific occupations affect the respiratory health of adults without pre-existing respiratory health symptoms and conditions, though long-term health consequences of inhalation exposures in these jobs remain largely unexplored. PMID:22433119

A Survey of Employment Opportunities in the Atmospheric Sciences, 1981-1991.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, Howard P.

1993-06-01

Results from an analysis of 11 years of the AMS Employment Announcements newsletter are discussed. The strongest signals in the record of various job categories are the annual cycle in advertisements of tenure-track faculty positions and the interannual variations in the overall market, which are dominated by private-sector positions. On average, there are 23±9 new positions announced each month, with maxima in March and November and the minimum in July. The overall market grew throughout the mid-1980s, but has declined in recent years.

Air quality impact of the coal-fired power plants in the northern passageway of the China West-East Power Transmission Project.

PubMed

Xue, Zhigang; Hao, Jiming; Chai, Fahe; Duan, Ning; Chen, Yizhen; Li, Jindan; Chen, Fu; Liu, Simei; Pu, Wenqing

2005-12-01

This paper analyzes the air quality impacts of coal-fired power plants in the northern passageway of the West-East Power Transmission Project in China. A three-layer Lagrangian model called ATMOS, was used to simulate the spatial distribution of incremental sulfur dioxide (SO2) and coarse particulate matter (PM10) concentrations under different emission control scenarios. In the year 2005, the emissions from planned power plants mainly affected the air quality of Shanxi, Shaanxi, the common boundary of Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, and the area around the boundary between Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. In these areas, the annually averaged incremental SO2 and PM10 concentrations exceed 2 and 2.5 microg/m3, respectively. The maximum increases of the annually averaged SO2 and PM10 concentrations are 8.3 and 7.2 microg/m3, respectively, which occur around Hancheng city, near the boundary of the Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces. After integrated control measures are considered, the maximum increases of annually averaged SO2 and PM10 concentrations fall to 4.9 and 4 microg/m3, respectively. In the year 2010, the areas affected by planned power plants are mainly North Shaanxi, North Ningxia, and Northwest Shanxi. The maximum increases of the annually averaged SO2 and PM10, concentrations are, respectively, 6.3 and 5.6 microg/m3, occurring in Northwest Shanxi, which decline to 4.4 and 4.1 microg/m3 after the control measures are implemented. The results showed that the proposed power plants mainly affect the air quality of the region where the power plants are built, with little impact on East China where the electricity will be used. The influences of planned power plants on air quality will be decreased greatly by implementing integrated control measures.

Occupational fatalities in the United States commercial fishing industry, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Lincoln, Jennifer M; Lucas, Devin L

2010-10-01

The occupational fatality rate among commercial fishermen decreased in the United States during 1992-2008; however, commercial fishing continues to be one of the most dangerous occupations in the United States, with an average annual fatality rate of 129 deaths per 100,000 fishermen in 2008. By contrast, the average annual occupational fatality rate among all US workers during the same period was four deaths per 100,000 workers. During the 1990s, numerous safety interventions were developed for Alaska fisheries that resulted in a significant decline in the state's commercial fishing fatality rate. In 2007, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) expanded surveillance of commercial fishing fatalities to the rest of the United States. The purpose of this report is to identify the hazards and risk factors for all causes of occupational mortality in the US commercial fishing industry, and to explore how those hazards and risk factors differ among fisheries and locations. During 2000-2009, 504 commercial fishing fatalities occurred in the United States. Most (261, 52%) occurred following a vessel disaster (defined as a sinking, capsizing, or other event in which the crew was forced to abandon ship) or a fall overboard (155, 31%). Fatalities occurred in Alaska (133, 26%), Northeast (124, 25%), Gulf of Mexico (116, 23%), West Coast (83, 16%), and the Mid- and South Atlantic (41, 8%) regions. Fatalities occurred most commonly while fishing for shellfish (226, 47%), groundfish (144, 30%) and pelagic fish (97, 20%). Average annual fatality rates were calculated for selected fisheries. The Northeast multispecies groundfish fleet had the highest average annual fatality rate (600 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent [FTE] fishermen) followed by the Atlantic scallop fleet (425 deaths per 100,000 FTE fishermen) and the West Coast Dungeness crab fleet (310 deaths per 100,000 FTE fishermen). To reduce fatalities among fishermen at greatest risk, additional prevention measures tailored to specific high-risk fisheries should be considered.

Annual Report to the Nation: Overall cancer mortality declines

Cancer.gov

The 2018 Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer finds overall cancer death rates continue to decline and cancer incidence dropped in men and remained stable in women. A companion study reports on recent changes in prostate cancer trends.

Phenotypic variation and differentiated gene expression of Australian plants in response to declining rainfall

PubMed Central

Fowler, William; Lim, Sim Lin; Enright, Neal; He, Tianhua

2016-01-01

Declining rainfall is projected to have negative impacts on the demographic performance of plant species. Little is known about the adaptive capacity of species to respond to drying climates, and whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change. In fire-prone ecosystems, episodic recruitment of perennial plant species in the first year post-fire imposes a specific selection environment, offering a unique opportunity to quantify the scope for adaptive response to climate change. We examined the growth of seedlings of four fire-killed species under control and drought conditions for seeds from populations established in years following fire receiving average-to-above-average winter rainfall, or well-below-average winter rainfall. We show that offspring of plants that had established under drought had more efficient water uptake, and/or stored more water per unit biomass, or developed denser leaves, and all maintained higher survival in simulated drought than did offspring of plants established in average annual rainfall years. Adaptive phenotypic responses were not consistent across all traits and species, while plants that had established under severe drought or established in years with average-to-above-average rainfall had an overall different physiological response when growing either with or without water constraints. Seedlings descended from plants established under severe drought also had elevated gene expression in key pathways relating to stress response. Our results demonstrate the capacity for rapid adaptation to climate change through phenotypic variation and regulation of gene expression. However, effective and rapid adaptation to climate change may vary among species depending on their capacity to maintain robust populations under multiple stresses. PMID:28018654

Phenotypic variation and differentiated gene expression of Australian plants in response to declining rainfall.

PubMed

D'Agui, Haylee; Fowler, William; Lim, Sim Lin; Enright, Neal; He, Tianhua

2016-11-01

Declining rainfall is projected to have negative impacts on the demographic performance of plant species. Little is known about the adaptive capacity of species to respond to drying climates, and whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change. In fire-prone ecosystems, episodic recruitment of perennial plant species in the first year post-fire imposes a specific selection environment, offering a unique opportunity to quantify the scope for adaptive response to climate change. We examined the growth of seedlings of four fire-killed species under control and drought conditions for seeds from populations established in years following fire receiving average-to-above-average winter rainfall, or well-below-average winter rainfall. We show that offspring of plants that had established under drought had more efficient water uptake, and/or stored more water per unit biomass, or developed denser leaves, and all maintained higher survival in simulated drought than did offspring of plants established in average annual rainfall years. Adaptive phenotypic responses were not consistent across all traits and species, while plants that had established under severe drought or established in years with average-to-above-average rainfall had an overall different physiological response when growing either with or without water constraints. Seedlings descended from plants established under severe drought also had elevated gene expression in key pathways relating to stress response. Our results demonstrate the capacity for rapid adaptation to climate change through phenotypic variation and regulation of gene expression. However, effective and rapid adaptation to climate change may vary among species depending on their capacity to maintain robust populations under multiple stresses.

Productivity of public hospitals in Nepal: a data envelopment analysis

PubMed Central

Ashton, Toni

2017-01-01

Objectives Public hospitals in Nepal account for a major share of the total health budget. Therefore, questions are often asked about the performance of these hospitals. Existing measures of performance are limited to historical ratio analyses without any benchmarks. The objective of this study is to explore the trends in inputs, outputs and productivity changes in Nepalese public hospitals from 2011–2012 to 2013–2014. Setting and participants The study was conducted among 32 Nepalese public hospitals (23 district level and 9 higher level) for the three fiscal years from 2011–2012 to 2013–2014. Outcome measures First, basic ratio analyses were conducted for the input and output measures over the study years. Then, Malmquist productivity change scores were obtained using data envelopment analysis. Aggregated as well as separate analyses were conducted for district level and higher level hospitals. Results Real expenditures of the sampled hospitals declined over the 3-year period from an average of US$ 371 000 in year 1 to US$ 368 730 in year 2 and US$ 328680 in year 3. The average aggregated hospital outputs increased marginally from 8276 in 2011–2012 to 8613 in 2013–2014. The total factor productivity of the study hospitals declined by 6.9% annually from 2011–2012 to 2013–2014. Of the total 32 hospitals, productivity increased in only 12 (37.5%) hospitals and declined in the remaining 20 hospitals. The total factor productivity loss was influenced by a decline in technology change, despite an increase in efficiency. Conclusions In general, productivity of the study hospitals declined over the study period. Availability and accessibility of accurate, detailed and consistent measures of hospital inputs and outputs is a major challenge for this type of analysis. PMID:28729314

Did it fall or was it pushed? The contribution of trends in established risk factors to the decline in premature coronary heart disease mortality in New Zealand.

PubMed

Tobias, Martin; Taylor, Richard; Yeh, Li-Chia; Huang, Ken; Mann, Stewart; Sharpe, Norman

2008-04-01

To estimate the contribution of trends in three risk factors--systolic blood pressure (SBP), total blood cholesterol (TBC) and cigarette smoking--to the decline in premature coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in New Zealand from 1980-2004. Risk factor prevalence data by 10-year age group (35-64 years) and sex was sourced from six national or Auckland regional health surveys and three population censuses (the latter only for smoking). The data were smoothed using two-point moving averages, then further smoothed by fitting quadratic regression equations (SBP and TBC) or splines (smoking). Risk factor/CHD mortality hazard ratios estimated by expert working groups for the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study 2001 were used to translate average annual changes in risk factor prevalences to the corresponding percentage changes in premature CHD mortality. The expected trends in CHD mortality were then compared with the observed trend to estimate the contribution of each risk factor to the decline. Approximately 80% (73% for males, 87% for females) of the decline in premature CHD mortality from 1980 to 2004 is estimated to have resulted from the joint trends in population SBP and TBC distributions and smoking prevalence. Overall, approximately 42%, 36% and 22% of the joint risk factor effect was contributed by trends in SBP, TBC and smoking respectively. Our estimate for the joint risk factor contribution to the CHD mortality decline of 80% exceeds those of two earlier New Zealand studies, but agrees closely with a similar Australian study. This provides an indicator of the scope that still remains for further reduction in CHD mortality through primary and secondary prevention.

Spatial and temporal multiyear sea ice distributions in the Arctic: A neural network analysis of SSM/I data, 1988-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belchansky, G.I.; Douglas, David C.; Alpatsky, I.V.; Platonov, Nikita G.

2004-01-01

Arctic multiyear sea ice concentration maps for January 1988-2001 were generated from SSM/I brightness temperatures (19H, 19V, and 37V) using modified multiple layer perceptron neural networks. Learning data for the neural networks were extracted from ice maps derived from Okean and ERS satellite imagery to capitalize on the stability of active radar multiyear ice signatures. Evaluations of three learning algorithms and several topologies indicated that networks constructed with error back propagation learning and 3-20-1 topology produced the most consistent and physically plausible results. Operational neural networks were developed specifically with January learning data, and then used to estimate daily multiyear ice concentrations from daily-averaged SSM/I brightness temperatures during January. Monthly mean maps were produced for analysis by averaging the respective daily estimates. The 14-year series of January multiyear ice distributions revealed dense and persistent cover in the central Arctic surrounded by expansive regions of highly fluctuating interannual cover. Estimates of total multiyear ice area by the neural network were intermediate to those of other passive microwave algorithms, but annual fluctuations and trends were similar among all algorithms. When compared to Radarsat estimates of multiyear ice concentration in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas (1997-1999), average discrepancies were small (0.9-2.5%) and spatial coherency was reasonable, indicating the neural network's Okean and ERS learning data facilitated passive microwave inversion that emulated backscatter signatures. During 1988-2001, total January multiyear ice area declined at a significant linear rate of -54.3 x 103 km2/yr-1 (-1.4%/yr-1). The most persistent and extensive decline in multiyear ice concentration (-3.3%/yr-1) occurred in the southern Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. In autumn 1996, a large multiyear ice recruitment of over 106 km2 (mostly in the Siberian Arctic) fully replenished the previous 8-year decline in total area, but it was followed by an accelerated and compensatory decline during the subsequent 4 years. Seventy-five percent of the interannual variation in January multiyear sea ice area was explained by linear regression on two atmospheric parameters: the previous inter's (JFM) Arctic Oscillation index as a proxy to melt duration and the previous year's average sea level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait as a proxy to annual ice export. Consecutive year changes (1994-2001) in January multiyear ice volume were significantly correlated with duration of the intervening melt season (R2 = 0.73, -80.0 km3/d-1), emphasizing a large thermodynamic influence on the Arctic's mass sea ice balance during summers with anomalous melt durations.

Adolescent homicide victimization in Johannesburg, South Africa: incidence and epidemiological characteristics (2001-2009).

PubMed

Swart, Lu-Anne; Seedat, Mohamed; Nel, Juan

2016-09-01

This study describes the incidence and epidemiological characteristics of adolescent homicides (15-19 years) in Johannesburg, South Africa. A retrospective population-based study was conducted on cases drawn from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System. A total of 590 adolescent homicides were registered for 2001-2009 corresponding to an average annual homicide rate of 23.4/100,000. The average annual rate was 39.8/100,000 for males and 7.9/100,000 for females. Black and coloured adolescents had the highest homicide rates. There was a considerable decline in the firearm homicide rates over the study period. In contrast, sharp instrument and blunt force homicides increased. Public places were the predominant scenes for male deaths, while female homicides occurred primarily in residential locations. Most male homicides took place over weekend nights. Alcohol was a prominent feature of homicides. The high homicide rates reported in this study underscore the need to develop interventions directed specifically at adolescents. Prevention efforts are required to pay particular attention to black and coloured adolescent males, and to address the availability of weapons and alcohol use among adolescents.

An Organochronology and Deep History of a North Carolina Tidal Marsh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, J. T.; Kemp, A.; Horton, B.

2016-12-01

Tidal marshes have survived for millennia in a dynamic equilibrium with sea level. A record of their history can be found in the sediments underlying modern marshes. Since the industrial revolution the rate of relative sea-level rise has been increasing and the equilibrium is changing. To reconstruct the history of these marshes we analyzed a 1000 year record of soil organic matter content (SOM) from Tump Point, Cedar Island, North Carolina. SOM concentration is a function of the standing biomass at the time of its creation, its subsequent preservation, and annual input of inorganic matter. SOM and inorganic concentration determine the soil bulk density and volume. The standing biomass, sediment organic matter input, and consequent carbon sequestration are functions of hydroperiod or, by proxy, the paleo-marsh elevation (PME) below mean high water. The annual input of inorganic matter is determined by the depth, duration, and frequency of flooding, concentration of total suspended solids (TSS), and settling velocity. Using an inverse modeling technique we were able to solve the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM) for PME and relative sea level that would have resulted in the observed SOM chronologies. The TSS was inferred from the accretion rates derived from dated core sections. Consistent with foraminifera-derived relative sea-level reconstructions, the MEM-derived rate of SLR doubled after 1700 CE compared with the previous 900 years, and the PME has declined and is approaching the lower limit of the vegetation. We estimate that C-sequestration prior to 1260 varied between 15 and 40 (average 30) g C m-2 y-1, but has since declined to a range of 5 to 33 (average 16) g C m-2 y-1. The decline in carbon sequestration can be attributed to the acceleration in rate of sea-level rise and is a trend that probably will characterize most tidal wetlands in the future.

Lower respiratory tract infection hospitalizations among American Indian/Alaska Native children and the general United States child population

PubMed Central

Foote, Eric M.; Singleton, Rosalyn J.; Holman, Robert C.; Seeman, Sara M.; Steiner, Claudia A.; Bartholomew, Michael; Hennessy, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Background The lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI)-associated hospitalization rate in American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) children aged <5 years declined during 1998–2008, yet remained 1.6 times higher than the general US child population in 2006–2008. Purpose Describe the change in LRTI-associated hospitalization rates for AI/AN children and for the general US child population aged <5 years. Methods A retrospective analysis of hospitalizations with discharge ICD-9-CM codes for LRTI for AI/AN children and for the general US child population <5 years during 2009–2011 was conducted using Indian Health Service direct and contract care inpatient data and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, respectively. We calculated hospitalization rates and made comparisons to previously published 1998–1999 rates prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction. Results The average annual LRTI-associated hospitalization rate declined from 1998–1999 to 2009–2011 in AI/AN (35%, p<0.01) and the general US child population (19%, SE: 4.5%, p<0.01). The 2009–2011 AI/AN child average annual LRTI-associated hospitalization rate was 20.7 per 1,000, 1.5 times higher than the US child rate (13.7 95% CI: 12.6–14.8). The Alaska (38.9) and Southwest regions (27.3) had the highest rates. The disparity was greatest for infant (<1 year) pneumonia-associated and 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza-associated hospitalizations. Conclusions Although the LRTI-associated hospitalization rate declined, the 2009–2011 AI/AN child rate remained higher than the US child rate, especially in the Alaska and Southwest regions. The residual disparity is likely multi-factorial and partly related to household crowding, indoor smoke exposure, lack of piped water and poverty. Implementation of interventions proven to reduce LRTI is needed among AI/AN children. PMID:26547082

Inequalities in Maternal Health Care Utilization in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Multiyear and Multi-Country Analysis

PubMed Central

Alam, Nazmul; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Dumont, Alexandre; Fournier, Pierre

2015-01-01

To assess social inequalities in the use of antenatal care (ANC), facility based delivery (FBD), and modern contraception (MC) in two contrasting groups of countries in sub-Saharan Africa divided based on their progress towards maternal mortality reduction. Six countries were included in this study. Three countries (Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Uganda) had <350 MMR in 2010 with >4.5% average annual reduction rate while another three (Cameroon, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) had >550 MMR in 2010 with only <1.5% average annual reduction rate. All of these countries had at least three rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) before 2012. We measured rate ratios and differences, as well as relative and absolute concentration indices in order to examine within-country geographical and wealth-based inequalities in the utilization of ANC, FBD, and MC. In the countries which have made sufficient progress (i.e. Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Uganda), ANC use increased by 8.7, 9.3 and 5.7 percent, respectively, while the utilization of FBD increased by 4.7, 0.7 and 20.2 percent, respectively, over the last decade. By contrast, utilization of these services either plateaued or decreased in countries which did not make progress towards reducing maternal mortality, with the exception of Cameroon. Utilization of MC increased in all six countries but remained very low, with a high of 40.5% in Zimbabwe and low of 16.1% in Cameroon as of 2011. In general, relative measures of inequalities were found to have declined overtime in countries making progress towards reducing maternal mortality. In countries with insufficient progress towards maternal mortality reduction, these indicators remained stagnant or increased. Absolute measures for geographical and wealth-based inequalities remained high invariably in all six countries. The increasing trend in the utilization of maternal care services was found to concur with a steady decline in maternal mortality. Relative inequality declined overtime in countries which made progress towards reducing maternal mortality. PMID:25853423

Lower respiratory tract infection hospitalizations among American Indian/Alaska Native children and the general United States child population.

PubMed

Foote, Eric M; Singleton, Rosalyn J; Holman, Robert C; Seeman, Sara M; Steiner, Claudia A; Bartholomew, Michael; Hennessy, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Background The lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI)-associated hospitalization rate in American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) children aged <5 years declined during 1998-2008, yet remained 1.6 times higher than the general US child population in 2006-2008. Purpose Describe the change in LRTI-associated hospitalization rates for AI/AN children and for the general US child population aged <5 years. Methods A retrospective analysis of hospitalizations with discharge ICD-9-CM codes for LRTI for AI/AN children and for the general US child population <5 years during 2009-2011 was conducted using Indian Health Service direct and contract care inpatient data and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, respectively. We calculated hospitalization rates and made comparisons to previously published 1998-1999 rates prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction. Results The average annual LRTI-associated hospitalization rate declined from 1998-1999 to 2009-2011 in AI/AN (35%, p<0.01) and the general US child population (19%, SE: 4.5%, p<0.01). The 2009-2011 AI/AN child average annual LRTI-associated hospitalization rate was 20.7 per 1,000, 1.5 times higher than the US child rate (13.7 95% CI: 12.6-14.8). The Alaska (38.9) and Southwest regions (27.3) had the highest rates. The disparity was greatest for infant (<1 year) pneumonia-associated and 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza-associated hospitalizations. Conclusions Although the LRTI-associated hospitalization rate declined, the 2009-2011 AI/AN child rate remained higher than the US child rate, especially in the Alaska and Southwest regions. The residual disparity is likely multi-factorial and partly related to household crowding, indoor smoke exposure, lack of piped water and poverty. Implementation of interventions proven to reduce LRTI is needed among AI/AN children.

Trends in lake chemistry in response to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, 1993-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mast, M. Alisa; Ingersoll, George P.

2011-01-01

In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, began a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. The purpose of this report is to describe trends in the chemical composition of these high-elevation lakes. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) are evaluated over a similar period of record to determine likely drivers of changing lake chemistry. Sulfate concentrations in precipitation decreased over the past two decades at high-elevation monitoring stations in the Rocky Mountain region. The trend in deposition chemistry is consistent with regional declines in sulfur dioxide emissions resulting from installation of emission controls at large stationary sources. Trends in nitrogen deposition were not as widespread as those for sulfate. About one-half of monitoring stations showed increases in ammonium concentrations, but few showed significant changes in nitrate concentrations. Trends in nitrogen deposition appear to be inconsistent with available emission inventories, which indicate modest declines in nitrogen emissions in the Rocky Mountain region since the mid-1990s. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainties in emission inventories or changes in atmospheric transformations of nitrogen species that may be affecting deposition processes. Analysis of long-term climate records indicates that average annual mean air temperature minimums have increased from 0.57 to 0.75 °C per decade in mountain areas of the region with warming trends being more pronounced in Colorado. Trends in annual precipitation were not evident over the period 1990 to 2006, although wetter than average years during 1995 to 1997 and drier years during 2001 to 2004 caused a notable decline in precipitation in the middle part of the record.

Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abahous, H.; Ronchail, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Kenny, L.; Bouchaou, L.

2017-11-01

In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932-2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932-2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.

Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yuk S.; Braban, Christine F.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Dore, Anthony J.; Simmons, Ivan; van Dijk, Netty; Poskitt, Janet; Dos Santos Pereira, Gloria; Keenan, Patrick O.; Conolly, Christopher; Vincent, Keith; Smith, Rognvald I.; Heal, Mathew R.; Sutton, Mark A.

2018-01-01

A unique long-term dataset from the UK National Ammonia Monitoring Network (NAMN) is used here to assess spatial, seasonal and long-term variability in atmospheric ammonia (NH3: 1998-2014) and particulate ammonium (NH4+: 1999-2014) across the UK. Extensive spatial heterogeneity in NH3 concentrations is observed, with lowest annual mean concentrations at remote sites (< 0.2 µg m-3) and highest in the areas with intensive agriculture (up to 22 µg m-3), while NH4+ concentrations show less spatial variability (e.g. range of 0.14 to 1.8 µg m-3 annual mean in 2005). Temporally, NH3 concentrations are influenced by environmental conditions and local emission sources. In particular, peak NH3 concentrations are observed in summer at background sites (defined by 5 km grid average NH3 emissions < 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and in areas dominated by sheep farming, driven by increased volatilization of NH3 in warmer summer temperatures. In areas where cattle, pig and poultry farming is dominant, the largest NH3 concentrations are in spring and autumn, matching periods of manure application to fields. By contrast, peak concentrations of NH4+ aerosol occur in spring, associated with long-range transboundary sources. An estimated decrease in NH3 emissions by 16 % between 1998 and 2014 was reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Annually averaged NH3 data from NAMN sites operational over the same period (n = 59) show an indicative downward trend, although the reduction in NH3 concentrations is smaller and non-significant: Mann-Kendall (MK), -6.3 %; linear regression (LR), -3.1 %. In areas dominated by pig and poultry farming, a significant reduction in NH3 concentrations between 1998 and 2014 (MK: -22 %; LR: -21 %, annually averaged NH3) is consistent with, but not as large as the decrease in estimated NH3 emissions from this sector over the same period (-39 %). By contrast, in cattle-dominated areas there is a slight upward trend (non-significant) in NH3 concentrations (MK: +12 %; LR: +3.6 %, annually averaged NH3), despite the estimated decline in NH3 emissions from this sector since 1998 (-11 %). At background and sheep-dominated sites, NH3 concentrations increased over the monitoring period. These increases (non-significant) at background (MK: +17 %; LR: +13 %, annually averaged data) and sheep-dominated sites (MK: +15 %; LR: +19 %, annually averaged data) would be consistent with the concomitant reduction in SO2 emissions over the same period, leading to a longer atmospheric lifetime of NH3, thereby increasing NH3 concentrations in remote areas. The observations for NH3 concentrations not decreasing as fast as estimated emission trends are consistent with a larger downward trend in annual particulate NH4+ concentrations (1999-2014: MK: -47 %; LR: -49 %, p < 0.01, n = 23), associated with a lower formation of particulate NH4+ in the atmosphere from gas phase NH3.

Surface- and ground-water relations on the Portneuf river, and temporal changes in ground-water levels in the Portneuf Valley, Caribou and Bannock Counties, Idaho, 2001-02

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barton, Gary J.

2004-01-01

The State of Idaho and local water users are concerned that streamflow depletion in the Portneuf River in Caribou and Bannock Counties is linked to ground-water withdrawals for irrigated agriculture. A year-long field study during 2001 02 that focused on monitoring surface- and ground-water relations was conducted, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, to address some of the water-user concerns. The study area comprised a 10.2-mile reach of the Portneuf River downstream from the Chesterfield Reservoir in the broad Portneuf Valley (Portneuf River Valley reach) and a 20-mile reach of the Portneuf River in a narrow valley downstream from the Portneuf Valley (Pebble-Topaz reach). During the field study, the surface- and ground-water relations were dynamic. A losing river reach was delineated in the middle of the Portneuf River Valley reach, centered approximately 7.2 miles downstream from Chesterfield Reservoir. Two seepage studies conducted in the Portneuf Valley during regulated high flows showed that the length of the losing river reach increased from 2.6 to nearly 6 miles as the irrigation season progressed.Surface- and ground-water relations in the Portneuf Valley also were characterized from an analysis of specific conductance and temperature measurements. In a gaining reach, stratification of specific conductance and temperature across the channel of the Portneuf River was an indicator of ground water seeping into the river.An evolving method of using heat as a tracer to monitor surface- and ground-water relations was successfully conducted with thermistor arrays at four locations. Heat tracing monitored a gaining reach, where ground water was seeping into the river, and monitored a losing reach, where surface water was seeping down through the riverbed (also referred to as a conveyance loss), at two locations.Conveyance losses in the Portneuf River Valley reach were greatest, about 20 cubic feet per second, during the mid-summer regulated high flows. Conveyance losses in the Pebble-Topaz reach were greatest, about 283 cubic feet per second, during the spring regulated high flows and were attributed to a hydroelectric project.Comparison of water levels in 30 wells in the Portneuf Valley during September and October 1968 and 2001 indicated long-term declines since 1968; the median decline was 3.4 feet. September and October were selected for characterizing long-term ground-water-level fluctuations because declines associated with irrigation reach a maximum at the end of the irrigation season. The average annual snowpack in the study area has declined significantly; 1945 85 average annual snowpack was 16.1 inches, whereas 1986 through 2002 average annual snowpack was 11.6 inches. Water-level declines during 1998 2002 may be partially attributable to the extended dry climatic conditions. It is unclear whether the declines could be partially attributed to increases in ground-water withdrawals. Between 1968 and 1980, water rights for ground-water withdrawals nearly doubled from 23,500 to 46,000 acre-feet per year. During this period, ground-water levels were relatively constant and did not exhibit a declining trend that could be related to increased ground-water withdrawal rights. However, ground-water withdrawals are not measured in the valley; thus, the amount of water pumped is not known. Since the 1990s, there have been several years when the Chesterfield Reservoir has not completely refilled, and the water in storage behind the reservoir has been depleted by the middle of the irrigation season. In this situation, surface-water diversions for irrigation were terminated before the end of the irrigation season, and irrigators, who were relying in part on diversions from the Portneuf River, had to rely solely on ground water as an alternate supply. Smaller volumes of water in the Chesterfield Reservoir since the 1990s indicate a growing demand for ground-water supplies.

Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

2017-09-20

Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services.

PubMed

Boone, Randall B; Conant, Richard T; Sircely, Jason; Thornton, Philip K; Herrero, Mario

2018-03-01

Rangelands are Earth's dominant land cover and are important providers of ecosystem services. Reliance on rangelands is projected to grow, thus understanding the sensitivity of rangelands to future climates is essential. We used a new ecosystem model of moderate complexity that allows, for the first time, to quantify global changes expected in rangelands under future climates. The mean global annual net primary production (NPP) may decline by 10 g C m -2  year -1 in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but herbaceous NPP is projected to increase slightly (i.e., average of 3 g C m -2  year -1 ). Responses vary substantially from place-to-place, with large increases in annual productivity projected in northern regions (e.g., a 21% increase in productivity in the US and Canada) and large declines in western Africa (-46% in sub-Saharan western Africa) and Australia (-17%). Soil organic carbon is projected to increase in Australia (9%), the Middle East (14%), and central Asia (16%) and decline in many African savannas (e.g., -18% in sub-Saharan western Africa). Livestock are projected to decline 7.5 to 9.6%, an economic loss of from $9.7 to $12.6 billion. Our results suggest that forage production in Africa is sensitive to changes in climate, which will have substantial impacts on the livelihoods of the more than 180 million people who raise livestock on those rangelands. Our approach and the simulation tool presented here offer considerable potential for forecasting future conditions, highlight regions of concern, and support analyses where costs and benefits of adaptations and policies may be quantified. Otherwise, the technical options and policy and enabling environment that are needed to facilitate widespread adaptation may be very difficult to elucidate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in the atmospheric evaporative demand in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agustin Brena-Naranjo, Jose; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Laverde-Barajas, Miguel

2015-04-01

An important driver of the hydrological cycle is the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED). Previous studies using measurements of evaporation in pans have found evidence that AED has been declining over the second half of the 20th century. Such trends have been mostly attributed to a global decline in near surface wind speed (mainly driven by changes in land cover such as the terrestrial surface roughness) whereas other variables controlling AED such as the vapor pressure deficit, solar radiation and air temperature having a more limited role (such changes are driven by long-term climatic variations). The objective of this work is to assess the temporal and spatial observed changes in pan evaporation in 151 meteorological stations located across Mexico for the period 1961-2010. The stations were located on a climatic gradient, with aridity indexes ranging between 0.3 and 10. The radiative and aerodynamic controls attributed to the observed trends are analyzed with outputs by the Noah model from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The results show a consistent decline in annual pan evaporation between 1961 and 1992 whereas the trend was reverted from 1992 until 2010. Statistically significant negative changes using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test were found in 43% of the stations for the 1961-1992 and 20% for 1992-2010, respectively. Among the climatological variables extracted from GLDAS, it was the annual wind speed that gave the highest statistical correlation. This work agrees with previous studies in other regions of the world suggesting that pan evaporation has been on average declining until 1990 followed by a slightly positive trend during the last twenty years. Finally, we show that the magnitude of change in those regions dominated by wind and those dominated by radiative processes are strongly different.

Adult survival of Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in a Pacific colony

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Scott A.; Roberts, Bay D.; Fadely, Brian S.

1993-01-01

Breeding Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla survived at a mean annual rate of 0.926 in four years at a colony in Alaska. Survival rates observed in sexed males (0.930) and females (0.937) did not differ significantly. The rate of return among nonbreeding Kittiwakes (0.839) was lower than that of known breeders, presumably because more nonbreeders moved away from the study plots where they were marked. Individual nonbreeders frequented sites up to 5 km apart on the same island, while a few established breeders moved up to 2.5 km between years. Mate retention in breeding Kittiwakes averaged 69% in three years. Among pairs that split, the cause of changing mates was about equally divided between death (46%) and divorce (54%). Average adult life expectancy was estimated at 13.0 years. Combined with annual productivity averaging 0.17 chick per nest, the observed survival was insufficient for maintaining population size. Rather, an irregular decline observed in the study colony since 1981 is consistent with the model of a closed population with little or no recruitment. Compared to their Atlantic counterparts, Pacific Kittiwakes have low productivity and high survival. The question arises whether differences reflect phenotypic plasticity or genetically determined variation in population parameters.

Reconstructing Century-Scale Changes in Nitrogen Cycling in Forests Throughout the United States using Tree-Ring δ15N Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerhart-Barley, L.; McLauchlan, K. K.; Battles, J. J.; Craine, J. M.; Higuera, P. E.; Mack, M. C.; McNeil, B. E.; Nelson, D. M.; Pederson, N.; Perakis, S. S.

2016-12-01

In recent decades, human perturbation of the global nitrogen (N) cycle has been immense with reactive nitrogen supply to ecosystems from anthropogenic sources now exceeding that of natural fixation. The impact of these perturbations on ecosystem nutrient cycling and plant communities is limited by the lack of long-term `baseline' assessments of N cycling prior to anthropogenic influences. Stable N isotope analysis (δ15N) of dendrochronological records have the potential to provide this baseline data, but to date have focused on short term, regional assessments. Here, we address this question with a data set incorporating 311 individual trees and 7,661 δ15N measurements from 50 sites throughout the contiguous United States. These sites represent the diversity of US forest types, climate conditions, N deposition, soil types, and disturbance histories. The chronologies span, on average, the last 162 calendar years, with the oldest chronology dating back to 1572 C.E. Consequently, this study is the first century- and continental-scale assessment of ecosystem N cycling using tree-ring chronologies. When aggregated, the chronologies show a consistent decline from 1825 C.E. to present, indicating declining N availability in US forests, despite global increases in N supply. Environmental factors such as mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), and mean annual nitrogen deposition (Ndep) did not contribute to average site δ15N values; however, MAP and MAT significantly affected temporal trajectories in tree-ring δ15N, with more negative slopes toward present occurring in regions with low MAT and high MAP. Quantity of atmospheric N deposition had no discernible impact on mean δ15N values or on the temporal slope. This lack of response is either because levels of N deposition are too low to produce a discernible response in any meaningful aspects of the N cycle, and/or the δ15N signature of depositional N is similar enough to ecosystem N pools that atmospheric N inputs do not produce a significant effect. The declines in N availability indicated by these data may be exacerbated by projected climate trends, which predict increasing temperatures and drier conditions, potentially reducing overall carbon uptake in US forests.

Annual decline in forced expiratory volume is steeper in aluminum potroom workers than in workers without exposure to potroom fumes

PubMed Central

Henneberger, Paul K.; Einvik, Gunnar; Virji, Mohammed Abbas; Bakke, Berit; Kongerud, Johny

2016-01-01

Background Aluminum potroom exposure is associated with increased mortality of COPD but the association between potroom exposure and annual decline in lung function is unknown. We have measured lung volumes annually using spirometry from 1986 to 1996. The objective was to compare annual decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (dFEV1) and forced vital capacity (dFVC). Methods The number of aluminum potroom workers was 4,546 (81% males) and the number of workers in the reference group was 651 (76% males). The number of spirometries in the index group and the references were 24,060 and 2,243, respectively. Results After adjustment for confounders, the difference in dFEV1 and dFVC between the index and reference groups were 13.5 (P < 0.001) and −8.0 (P = 0.060) ml/year. Conclusion Aluminum potroom operators have increased annual decline in FEV1 relative to a comparable group with non‐exposure to potroom fumes and gases. Am. J. Ind. Med. 59:322–329, 2016. © 2016 The Authors. American Journal of Industrial Medicine Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26853811

The Wages of Older Men.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carliner, Geoffrey

1982-01-01

Net depreciation rates in human capital are estimated from wage data on a longitudinal sample of men aged 45 to 64. The results indicate that wage rates begin to decline in the early 50s at rates under one percent annually and decline at about two percent annually after age 60. (Author)

Meteorological factors affecting the sudden decline in Lake Urmia's water level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkian, Foroozan; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Ziaie, Bahareh

2018-01-01

Lake Urmia, in northwest Iran, is the second most saline lake in the world. During the past two decades, the level of water has markedly decreased. In this paper, climate of the lake region is investigated by using data from four meteorological stations near the lake. The data include climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, number of rain days, and evaporation. Climate around the lake is examined by way of climate classification in the periods before and after the reduction in water level. Rainfall in the lake catchment is also evaluated using both gauge and satellite data. The results show a significant decreasing trend in mean annual precipitation and wind speed and an increasing trend in annual average temperature and sunshine hours at the four stations. Precipitation and wind speed have decreased by 37 mm and 2.7 m/s, respectively, and the mean annual temperature and sunshine hours have increased by 1.4 °C and 41.6 days, respectively, over these six decades. Only the climate of the Tabriz region is seen to have significantly changed, going from semiarid to arid. Gauge records and satellite data show a large-scale decreasing trend in rainfall since 1995. The correlation between rainfall and year-to-year changes in lake level is 0.69 over the period 1965 to 2010. The relationship is particularly strong from the early 1990s to 2005. This suggests that precipitation has played an important role in the documented decline of the lake.

Mortality with musculoskeletal disorders as underlying cause in Sweden 1997-2013: a time trend aggregate level study.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Englund, Martin

2016-04-14

The aim was to assess time trend of mortality with musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) as underlying cause of death in Sweden from 1997 to 2013. We obtained data on MSD as underlying cause of death across age and sex groups from the National Board of Health and Welfare's Cause of Death Register. Age-standardized mortality rates per million population for all MSD, its six major subgroups, and all other ICD-10 (International Classification of Disease) chapters were calculated. We computed the average annual percent change (AAPC) in the mortality rates across age/sex groups using joinpoint regression analysis by fitting a regression line to the natural logarithm of the age-standardized mortality rates and calendar year as a predictor. There were a total of 7 976 deaths (0.5% of all causes deaths) with MSD as the underlying cause of death (32.5% of these deaths caused by rheumatoid arthritis [RA]). The overall age-standardized mortality rates (95% CI) were 16.0 (15.4 to 16.7) and 24.9 (24.1 to 25.7) per million among men and women, respectively (women/men rate ratio 1.55; 95%CI 1.47 to 1.63). On average, mortality rate declined by 2.3% per year and only circulatory system mortality had a more favourable decline than mortality with MSD as underlying cause. Among MSD the highest decline was observed in RA (3.7% per year) during study period. Across age groups, while there were generally stable or declining trends, spondylopathies and osteoporosis mortality among people ≥ 75 years increased by 2 and 1.5% per year, respectively. In overall, mortality with MSD as underlying cause has declined in Sweden over last two decades, with the highest decline for RA. However, there are variations across MSD subgroups which warrants further investigations.

Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2014-01-01

Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( λ ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

Prescription drug spending trends in the United States: looking beyond the turning point.

PubMed

Aitken, Murray; Berndt, Ernst R; Cutler, David M

2009-01-01

Annual growth in real prescription drug spending averaged 9.9 percent during 1997-2007 but has slowed since 2003, falling to 1.6 percent in 2007. More patent expirations, increased generic penetration, and reduced new product innovations have contributed to this turning point. We document trends and identify underlying components: declines in the role of blockbuster drugs, increased importance of biologics and vaccines relative to traditional pharmaceuticals, and a changing medication mix away from those prescribed principally by primary care physicians toward those mostly prescribed by specialists. We conclude with policy implications.

Bison body size and climate change.

PubMed

Martin, Jeff M; Mead, Jim I; Barboza, Perry S

2018-05-01

The relationship between body size and temperature of mammals is poorly resolved, especially for large keystone species such as bison ( Bison bison ). Bison are well represented in the fossil record across North America, which provides an opportunity to relate body size to climate within a species. We measured the length of a leg bone (calcaneal tuber, DstL) in 849 specimens from 60 localities that were dated by stratigraphy and 14 C decay. We estimated body mass ( M ) as M  = (DstL/11.49) 3 . Average annual temperature was estimated from δ 18 O values in the ice cores from Greenland. Calcaneal tuber length of  Bison  declined over the last 40,000 years, that is, average body mass was 37% larger (910 ± 50 kg) than today (665 ± 21 kg). Average annual temperature has warmed by 6°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (~24-18 kya) and is predicted to further increase by 4°C by the end of the 21st century. If body size continues to linearly respond to global temperature, Bison body mass will likely decline by an additional 46%, to 357 ± 54 kg, with an increase of 4°C globally. The rate of mass loss is 41 ± 10 kg per°C increase in global temperature. Changes in body size of Bison may be a result of migration, disease, or human harvest but those effects are likely to be local and short-term and not likely to persist over the long time scale of the fossil record. The strong correspondence between body size of bison and air temperature is more likely the result of persistent effects on the ability to grow and the consequences of sustaining a large body mass in a warming environment. Continuing rises in global temperature will likely depress body sizes of bison, and perhaps other large grazers, without human intervention.

Demographics of an experimentally released population of elk in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murrow, Jennifer L.; Clark, Joseph D.; Delozier, E. Kim

2009-01-01

We assessed the potential for reestablishing elk (Cervus elaphus) in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), USA, by estimating vital rates of experimentally released animals from 2001 to 2006. Annual survival rates for calves ranged from 0.333 to 1.0 and averaged 0.592. Annual survival for subadult and adult elk (i.e., ≥1 yr of age) ranged from 0.690 to 0.933, depending on age and sex. We used those and other vital rates to model projected population growth and viability using a stochastic individual-based model. The annual growth rate (λ) of the modeled population over a 25-year period averaged 0.996 and declined from 1.059 the first year to 0.990 at year 25. The modeled population failed to attain a positive 25-year mean growth rate in 46.0% of the projections. Poor calf recruitment was an important determinant of low population growth. Predation by black bears (Ursus americanus) was the dominant calf mortality factor. Most of the variance of growth projections was due to demographic variation resulting from the small population size (n  =  61). Management actions such as predator control may help increase calf recruitment, but our projections suggest that the GSMNP elk population may be at risk for some time because of high demographic variation.

Mixed conifer forest mortality and establishment before and after prescribed fire in Sequoia National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mutch, L.S.; Parsons, D.J.

1998-01-01

Pre-and post-burn tree mortality rates, size structure, basal area, and ingrowth were determined for four 1.0 ha mixed conifer forest stands in the Log Creek and Tharp's Creek watersheds of Sequoia National Park. Mean annual mortality between 1986 and 1990 was 0.8% for both watersheds. In the fall of 1990, the Tharp's Creek watershed was treated with a prescribed burn. Between 1991 and 1995, mean annual mortality was 1.4% in the unburned Log Creek watershed and 17.2% in the burned Tharp's Creek watershed. A drought from 1987 to 1992 likely contributed to the mortality increase in the Log Creek watershed. The high mortality in the Tharp's Creek watershed was primarily related to crown scorch from the 1990 fire and was modeled with logistic regression for white fir (Abies concolor [Gord. and Glend.]) and sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana [Dougl.]). From 1989 to 1994, basal area declined an average of 5% per year in the burned Tharp's Creek watershed, compared to average annual increases of less than 1% per year in the unburned Log Creek watershed and in the Tharp's watershed prior to burning. Post-burn size structure was dramatically changed in the Tharp's Creek stands: 75% of trees ???50 cm and 25% of trees >50 cm were killed by the fire.

Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

Temporal and Longitudinal Mercury Trends in Burbot (Lota lota) in the Russian Arctic.

PubMed

Pelletier, Alexander R; Castello, Leandro; Zhulidov, Alexander V; Gurtovaya, Tatiana Yu; Robarts, Richard D; Holmes, Robert M; Zhulidov, Daniel A; Spencer, Robert G M

2017-11-21

Current understanding of mercury (Hg) dynamics in the Arctic is hampered by a lack of data in the Russian Arctic region, which comprises about half of the entire Arctic watershed. This study quantified temporal and longitudinal trends in total mercury (THg) concentrations in burbot (Lota lota) in eight rivers of the Russian Arctic between 1980 and 2001, encompassing an expanse of 118 degrees of longitude. Burbot THg concentrations declined by an average of 2.6% annually across all eight rivers during the study period, decreasing by 39% from 0.171 μg g -1 wet weight (w.w.) in 1980 to 0.104 μg g -1 w.w. in 2001. THg concentrations in burbot also declined by an average of 1.8% per 10° of longitude from west to east across the study area between 1988 and 2001. These results, in combination with those of previous studies, suggest that Hg trends in Arctic freshwater fishes before 2001 were spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as those in the North American Arctic were mostly increasing while those in the Russian Arctic were mostly decreasing. It is suggested that Hg trends in Arctic animals may be influenced by both depositional and postdepositional processes.

Adult survival and productivity of Northern Fulmars in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Scott A.

1987-01-01

The population dynamics of Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) were studied at the Semidi Islands in the western Gulf of Alaska. Fulmars occurred in a broad range of color phases, and annual survival was estimated from the return of birds in the rarer plumage classes. A raw estimate of mean annual survival over a 5-year period was 0.963, but a removal experiment indicated the raw value was probably biased downward. The estimate of annual survival adjusted accordingly was 0.969. Mortality during the breeding season was less than 10% of the annual total, and postbreeding mortality of failed breeders was three to four times higher than that of successful breeders. Breeding success averaged 41% over 9 years. About 5% of experienced birds failed to breed each year due to physical destruction of their breeding sites, mate-loss, or other causes. An estimated 30% of the birds near the colony in one year were of prebreeding age. A comparison of population parameters in Pacific and Atlantic fulmars indicates that higher survival in the prebreeding years is the likely basis for population growth in the northeastern Atlantic. The correlation of breeding success and survival suggests both parameters may decline with age.

[Impact and forecasting of hepatitis A immunization in French armed forces, 1990-2004].

PubMed

Richard, V; Haus, R; Verret, C; Molinier, S; Hugard, L; Nicand, E; Spiegel, A; Buisson, Y

2006-10-01

Hepatitis A is a public health problem specially for migrants or travellers from industrialized countries with a low hepatitis A endemic level. French armed forces adopted an immunization strategy which first targeted overseas forces and subsequently was extended to all armed forces. In this work we studied the impact of this policy. Epidemiological surveillance data from 1990 to 2004 was analyzed by Poisson regression and exponential models of decrease used to forecast future rates. From the 826 cases of hepatitis A reported during the study period, 266 (32.2%) occurred in overseas forces and 560 (67.8%) in forces stationed in France. Three periods could be identified in the decline of annual incidence: before 1994, with an average rate of 23.2 per 100,000; from 1994 to 1998: 10.2; and after 1998: 1.2 for all French armed forces. For overseas armed forces, the average rate was 117 per 100,000 before 1994 and 17.1 from 1994 to 1998 (p<0.001). For armed forces stationed in France, the average rate was 12.2 per 100,000 before 1998 and 0.9 after (p<0.001). For overseas armed forces, models clearly described the declining incidence subsequent to targeted immunization in 1995 and for armed forces stationed in France, the decline with generalized immunization starting in 1998. The impact of immunization against hepatitis A virus was significant both in an overseas population and in a population staying in France where the risk level can be considered low due to the low endemic rate in France. These results suggest that immunization should be proposed not only for travellers but also for the general population based on real knowledge of the situation and cost-effectiveness analyses.

High and variable mortality of leatherback turtles reveal possible anthropogenic impacts.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, P; Robinson, N J; Sanz-Aguilar, A; Spotila, J R; Paladino, F V; Tavecchia, G

2017-08-01

The number of nesting leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the eastern Pacific Ocean has declined dramatically since the late 1980s. This decline has been attributed to egg poaching and interactions with fisheries. However, it is not clear how much of the decline should also be ascribed to variability in the physical characteristics of the ocean. We used data on individually marked turtles that nest at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, to address whether climatic variability affects survival and inter-breeding interval. Because some turtles might nest undetected, we used capture-recapture models to model survival probability accounting for a detection failure. In addition, as the probability of reproduction is constrained by past nesting events, we formulated a new parameterization to estimate inter-breeding intervals and contrast hypotheses on the role of climatic covariates on reproductive frequency. Average annual survival for the period 1993-2011 was low (0.78) and varied over time ranging from 0.49 to 0.99 with a negative temporal trend mainly due to the high mortality values registered after 2004. Survival probability was not associated with the Multivariate ENSO Index of the South Pacific Ocean (MEI) but this index explained 24% of the temporal variability in the reproductive frequency. The probability of a turtle to permanently leave after the first encounter was 26%. This high proportion of transients might be associated with a high mortality cost of the first reproduction or with a long-distance nesting dispersal after the first nesting season. Although current data do not allow separating these two hypotheses, low encounter rate at other locations and high investment in reproduction, supports the first hypothesis. The low and variable annual survival probability has largely contributed to the decline of this leatherback population. The lack of correlation between survival probability and the most important climatic driver of oceanic processes in the Pacific discards a climate-related decline and point to anthropogenic sources of mortality as the main causes responsible for the observed population decline. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Medical Malpractice Claims in Radiation Oncology: A Population-Based Study 1985-2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marshall, Deborah C.; Punglia, Rinaa S.; Fox, Dov

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine trends in radiation oncology malpractice claims and expenses during the last 28 years and to compare radiation oncology malpractice claims to those of other specialties. Methods and Materials: We performed a retrospective analysis of closed malpractice claims filed from 1985 to 2012, collected by a nationwide medical liability insurance trade association. We analyzed characteristics and trends among closed claims, indemnity payments (payments to plaintiff), and litigation expenses. We also compared radiation oncology malpractice claims to those of 21 other medical specialties. Time series dollar amounts were adjusted for inflation (2012 was themore » index year). Results: There were 1517 closed claims involving radiation oncology, of which 342 (22.5%) were paid. Average and median indemnity payments were $276,792 and $122,500, respectively, ranking fifth and eighth, respectively, among the 22 specialty groups. Linear regression modeling of time trends showed decreasing total numbers of claims (β = −1.96 annually, P=.003), increasing average litigation expenses paid (β = +$1472 annually, P≤.001), and no significant changes in average indemnity payments (β = −$681, P=.89). Conclusions: Medical professional liability claims filed against radiation oncologists are not common and have declined in recent years. However, indemnity payments in radiation oncology are large relative to those of many other specialties. In recent years, the average indemnity payment has been stable, whereas litigation expenses have increased.« less

Bottom trawl assessment of Lake Ontario prey fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weidel, Brian C.; Connerton, Michael J.; Holden, Jeremy

2018-01-01

Managing Lake Ontario fisheries in an ecosystem-context requires prey fish community and population data. Since 1978, multiple annual bottom trawl surveys have quantified prey fish dynamics to inform management relative to published Fish Community Objectives. In 2017, two whole-lake surveys collected 341 bottom trawls (spring: 204, fall: 137), at depths from 8-225m, and captured 751,350 fish from 29 species. Alewife were 90% of the total fish catch while Deepwater Sculpin, Round Goby, and Rainbow Smelt comprised the majority of the remaining total catch (3.8, 3.1, and 1.1% respectively). The adult Alewife abundance index for US waters increased in 2017 relative to 2016, however the index for Canadian waters declined. Adult Alewife condition, assessed by the predicted weight of a 165 mm fish (6.5 inches), declined in 2017 from record high values observed in spring 2016. Spring 2017 Alewife condition was slightly less than the 10-year average, but the fall value was well below the 10-year average, likely due to increased Age-1 Alewife abundance. The Age-1 Alewife abundance index was the highest observed in 40 years, and 8-times higher than the previous year. The Age-1 index estimates Alewife reproductive success the preceding year. The warm summer and winter of 2016 likely contributed to the large year class. In contrast the relatively cool 2017 spring and cold winter may result in a lower than average 2017 year class. Abundance indices for Rainbow Smelt, Cisco, and Emerald Shiner either declined or remained at low levels in 2017. Pelagic prey fish diversity continues to be low since a single species, Alewife, dominates the catch. Deepwater Sculpin were the most abundant benthic prey fish in 2017 because Round Goby abundance declined sharply from 2016. Slimy Sculpin density continued to decline and the 2017 biomass index for US waters was the lowest ever observed. Prior to Round Goby proliferation, juvenile Slimy Sculpin comprised ~10% of the Slimy Sculpin catch, but since 2004, the percent of juveniles within the total catch is less than 0.5%, suggesting Round Goby are limiting Slimy Sculpin reproduction. Despite Slimy Sculpin declines, benthic prey fish community diversity has increased as Deepwater Sculpin and Round Goby comprise more of the community.

[Climate suitability for tea growing in Zhejiang Province].

PubMed

Jin, Zhi-Feng; Ye, Jian-Gang; Yang, Zai-Qiang; Sun, Rui; Hu, Bo; Li, Ren-Zhong

2014-04-01

It is important to quantitatively assess the climate suitability of tea and its response to climate change. Based on meteorological indices of tea growth and daily meteorological data from 1971 to 2010 in Zhejiang Province, three climate suitability models for single climate factors, including temperature, precipitation and sunshine, were established at a 10-day scale by using the fuzzy mathematics method, and a comprehensive climate suitability model was established with the geometric average method. The results indicated that the climate suitability was high in the tea growth season in Zhejiang Province, and the three kinds of climate suitability were all higher than 0.6. As for the single factor climate suitability, temperature suitability was the highest and sunshine suitability was the lowest. There were obvious inter-annual variations of tea climate suitability, with a decline trend in the 1970s, less variation in the 1980s, and an obvious incline trend after the 1990s. The change tendency of climate suitability for spring tea was similar with that of annual climate suitability, lower in the 1980s, higher in the 1970s and after the 1990s. However, the variation amplitude of the climate suitability for spring tea was larger. The climate suitability for summer tea and autumn tea showed a decline trend from 1971 to 2010.

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Linbo

2015-09-25

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s.

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Linbo

2015-01-01

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s. PMID:26404333

Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lute, A. C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2015-02-01

Projected warming will have significant impacts on snowfall accumulation and melt, with implications for water availability and management in snow-dominated regions. Changes in snowfall extremes are confounded by projected increases in precipitation extremes. Downscaled climate projections from 20 global climate models were bias-corrected to montane Snowpack Telemetry stations across the western United States to assess mid-21st century changes in the mean and variability of annual snowfall water equivalent (SFE) and extreme snowfall events, defined by the 90th percentile of cumulative 3 day SFE amounts. Declines in annual SFE and number of snowfall days were projected for all stations. Changes in the magnitude of snowfall event quantiles were sensitive to historical winter temperature. At climatologically cooler locations, such as in the Rocky Mountains, changes in the magnitude of snowfall events mirrored changes in the distribution of precipitation events, with increases in extremes and less change in more moderate events. By contrast, declines in snowfall event magnitudes were found for all quantiles in warmer locations. Common to both warmer and colder sites was a relative increase in the magnitude of snowfall extremes compared to annual SFE and a larger fraction of annual SFE from snowfall extremes. The coefficient of variation of annual SFE increased up to 80% in warmer montane regions due to projected declines in snowfall days and the increased contribution of snowfall extremes to annual SFE. In addition to declines in mean annual SFE, more frequent low-snowfall years and less frequent high-snowfall years were projected for every station.

Racial and Residential Differences in U.S. Infant Death Rates: A Temporal Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Nan E.; Zaki, Khalida P.

1988-01-01

Compares annual rates of neonatal, postneonatal mortality to annual rates of low birth weight, 1963-1982. Shows that same level of decline in incidence of low birth weight is associated with greater decline in mortality rates of non-White than White infants and for nonmetro than metro infants. Contains 15 references. (Author/DHP)

Decline in in-patient treatments of genital warts among young Australians following the national HPV vaccination program

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There has been a rapid decline in the number of young heterosexuals diagnosed with genital warts at outpatient sexual health services since the national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program started in Australia in 2007. We assessed the impact of the vaccination program on the number of in-patient treatments for genital warts. Methods Data on in-patient treatments of genital warts in all private hospitals were extracted from the Medicare website. Medicare is the universal health insurance scheme of Australia. In the vaccine period (2007–2011) and pre-vaccine period (2000–2007) we calculated the percentage change in treatment numbers and trends in annual treatment rates in private hospitals. Australian population data were used to calculate rates. Summary rate ratios of average annual trends were determined. Results Between 2000 and 2011, 6,014 women and 936 men aged 15–44 years underwent in-patient treatment for genital warts in private hospitals. In 15–24 year old women, there was a significant decreasing trend in annual treatment rates of vulval/vaginal warts in the vaccine period (overall decrease of 85.3% in treatment numbers from 2007 to 2011) compared to no significant trend in the pre-vaccine period (summary rate ratio (SRR) = 0.33, p < 0.001). In 25–34 year old women, declining trends were seen in both vaccine and pre-vaccine periods (overall decrease of 33% vs. 24.3%), but the rate of change was greater in the vaccine period (SRR = 0.60, p < 0.001). In 35–44 year old women, there was no significant change in both periods (SRR = 0.91, p = 0.14). In 15–24 year old men, there was a significant decreasing trend in annual treatment rates of penile warts in the vaccine period (decrease of 70.6%) compared to an increasing trend in the pre-vaccine period (SRR = 0.76, p = 0.02). In 25–34 year old men there was a significant decreasing trend in the vaccine period compared to no change in the pre-vaccine period (SRR = 0.81, p = 0.04) and in 35–44 year old men there was no significant change in rates of penile warts both periods, but the rate of change was greater in the vaccine period (SRR = 0.70, p = 0.02). Conclusions The marked decline in in-patient treatment of vulval/vaginal warts in the youngest women is probably attributable to the HPV vaccine program. The moderate decline in in-patient treatments for penile warts in men probably reflects herd immunity. PMID:23506489

Decline in in-patient treatments of genital warts among young Australians following the national HPV vaccination program.

PubMed

Ali, Hammad; Guy, Rebecca J; Wand, Handan; Read, Tim Rh; Regan, David G; Grulich, Andrew E; Fairley, Christopher K; Donovan, Basil

2013-03-18

There has been a rapid decline in the number of young heterosexuals diagnosed with genital warts at outpatient sexual health services since the national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program started in Australia in 2007. We assessed the impact of the vaccination program on the number of in-patient treatments for genital warts. Data on in-patient treatments of genital warts in all private hospitals were extracted from the Medicare website. Medicare is the universal health insurance scheme of Australia. In the vaccine period (2007-2011) and pre-vaccine period (2000-2007) we calculated the percentage change in treatment numbers and trends in annual treatment rates in private hospitals. Australian population data were used to calculate rates. Summary rate ratios of average annual trends were determined. Between 2000 and 2011, 6,014 women and 936 men aged 15-44 years underwent in-patient treatment for genital warts in private hospitals. In 15-24 year old women, there was a significant decreasing trend in annual treatment rates of vulval/vaginal warts in the vaccine period (overall decrease of 85.3% in treatment numbers from 2007 to 2011) compared to no significant trend in the pre-vaccine period (summary rate ratio (SRR) = 0.33, p < 0.001). In 25-34 year old women, declining trends were seen in both vaccine and pre-vaccine periods (overall decrease of 33% vs. 24.3%), but the rate of change was greater in the vaccine period (SRR = 0.60, p < 0.001). In 35-44 year old women, there was no significant change in both periods (SRR = 0.91, p = 0.14). In 15-24 year old men, there was a significant decreasing trend in annual treatment rates of penile warts in the vaccine period (decrease of 70.6%) compared to an increasing trend in the pre-vaccine period (SRR = 0.76, p = 0.02). In 25-34 year old men there was a significant decreasing trend in the vaccine period compared to no change in the pre-vaccine period (SRR = 0.81, p = 0.04) and in 35-44 year old men there was no significant change in rates of penile warts both periods, but the rate of change was greater in the vaccine period (SRR = 0.70, p = 0.02). The marked decline in in-patient treatment of vulval/vaginal warts in the youngest women is probably attributable to the HPV vaccine program. The moderate decline in in-patient treatments for penile warts in men probably reflects herd immunity.

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Zhang, Hongliang

2018-01-01

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.

Climate variability, vulnerability, and coping mechanism in Alaknanda catchment, Central Himalaya, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Kireet; Joshi, Sneh; Joshi, Varun

2008-06-01

A study was carried out to discover trends in the rainfall and temperature pattern of the Alaknanda catchment in the Central Himalaya. Data on the annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall for the last decade, and average annual temperatures over the last few decades were analyzed. Nonparametric methods (Mann-Kendall and Sen's method) were employed to identify trends. The Mann-Kendall test shows a decline in rainfall and rise in temperature, and these trends were found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level for both transects. Sen's method also confirms this trend. This aspect has to be considered seriously for the simple reason that if the same trend continues in the future, more chances of drought are expected. The impact of climate change has been well perceived by the people of the catchment, and a coping mechanism has been developed at the local level.

Global fund financing to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries under the new funding model 2014-2017: an analysis of national allocations and regional grants.

PubMed

Zelman, Brittany; Melgar, Melissa; Larson, Erika; Phillips, Allison; Shretta, Rima

2016-02-25

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM) has been the largest financial supporter of malaria since 2002. In 2011, the GFATM transitioned to a new funding model (NFM), which prioritizes grants to high burden, lower income countries. This shift raises concerns that some low endemic countries, dependent on GFATM financing to achieve their malaria elimination goals, would receive less funding under the NFM. This study aims to understand the projected increase or decrease in national and regional funding from the GFATM's NFM to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries. Average annual disbursements under the old funding model were compared to average annual national allocations for all eligible 34 malaria-eliminating countries for the period of 2014-2017. Regional grant funding to countries that are due to receive additional support was then included in the comparison and analysed. Estimated funding ranges for the countries under the NFM were calculated using the proposed national allocation plus the possible adjustments and additional funding. Finally, the minimum and maximum funding estimates were compared to average annual disbursements under the old funding model. A cumulative 31 % decrease in national financing from the GFATM is expected for the countries included in this analysis. Regional grants augment funding for almost half of the eliminating countries, and increase the cumulative percent change in GTFAM funding to 32 %, though proposed activities may not be funded directly through national malaria programmes. However, if countries receive the maximum possible funding, 46 % of the countries included in this analysis would receive less than they received under the previous funding model. Many malaria-eliminating countries have projected national declines in funding from the GFATM under the NFM. While regional grants enhance funding for eliminating countries, they may not be able to fill country-level funding gaps for local commodities and implementation. If the GFATM is able to nuance its allocation methodology to mitigate drastic funding declines for malaria investments in low transmission countries, the GFATM can ensure previous investments are not lost. By aligning with WHO's Global Technical Strategy for Malaria and investing in both high- and low-endemic countries, the Global Fund can tip the scale on a global health threat and contribute toward the goal of eventual malaria eradication.

Evidence of disease-related amphibian decline in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, Erin; Corn, Paul Stephen; Pessier, Allan P.; Green, D. Earl

2003-01-01

The recent discovery of a pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) associated with declines of frogs in the American and Australian tropics, suggests that at least the proximate cause, may be known for many previously unexplained amphibian declines. We have monitored boreal toads in Colorado since 1991 at four sites using capturea??recapture of adults and counts of egg masses to examine the dynamics of this metapopulation. Numbers of male toads declined in 1996 and 1999 with annual survival rate averaging 78% from 1991 to 1994, 45% in 1995 and 3% between 1998 and 1999. Numbers of egg masses also declined. An etiological diagnosis of chytridiomycosis consistent with infections by the genus Batrachochytrium was made in six wild adult toads. Characteristic histomorphological features (i.e. intracellular location, shape of thalli, presence of discharge tubes and rhizoids) of chytrid organisms, and host tissue response (acanthosis and hyperkeratosis) were observed in individual toads. These characteristics were indistinguishable from previously reported mortality events associated with chytrid fungus. We also observed epizootiological features consistent with mortality events associated with chytrid fungus: an increase in the ratio of female:male toads captured, an apparent spread of mortalities within the metapopulation and mortalities restricted to post metamorphic animals. Eleven years of population data suggest that this metapopulation of toads is in danger of extinction, pathological and epizootiological evidence indicates that B. dendrobatidis has played a proximate role in this process

Recharge and Groundwater Use in the North China Plain for Six Irrigated Crops for an Eleven Year Period

PubMed Central

Yang, Xiaolin; Chen, Yuanquan; Pacenka, Steven; Gao, Wangsheng; Zhang, Min; Sui, Peng; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2015-01-01

Water tables are dropping by approximately one meter annually throughout the North China Plain mainly due to water withdrawals for irrigating winter wheat year after year. In order to examine whether the drawdown can be reduced we calculate the net water use for an 11 year field experiment from 2003 to 2013 where six irrigated crops (winter wheat, summer maize, cotton, peanuts, sweet potato, ryegrass) were grown in different crop rotations in the North China Plain. As part of this experiment moisture contents were measured each at 20 cm intervals in the top 1.8 m. Recharge and net water use were calculated based on these moisture measurement. Results showed that winter wheat and ryegrass had the least recharge with an average of 27 mm/year and 39 mm/year, respectively; cotton had the most recharge with an average of 211 mm/year) followed by peanuts with 118 mm/year, sweet potato with 76 mm/year, and summer maize with 44 mm/year. Recharge depended on the amount of irrigation water pumped from the aquifer and was therefore a poor indicator of future groundwater decline. Instead net water use (recharge minus irrigation) was found to be a good indicator for the decline of the water table. The smallest amount of net (ground water) used was cotton with an average of 14 mm/year, followed by peanut with 32 mm/year, summer maize with 71 mm/year, sweet potato with 74 mm/year. Winter wheat and ryegrass had the greatest net water use with the average of 198 mm/year and 111 mm/year, respectively. Our calculations showed that any single crop would use less water than the prevalent winter wheat summer maize rotation. This growing one crop instead of two will reduce the decline of groundwater and in some rain rich years increase the ground water level, but will result in less income for the farmers. PMID:25625765

Pneumonia Mortality in Children Aged <5 Years in 56 Countries: A Retrospective Analysis of Trends from 1960 to 2012.

PubMed

Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Cao, Qing; Ding, Cheng; Cui, Yuanxia; Zhou, Yuqing; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Xu, Kaijin; Ruan, Bing; Li, Lanjuan

2017-10-30

Pneumonia is now the second leading cause of death for children aged <5 years worldwide. However, analyses of the long-term evolution of under-5 mortality from pneumonia are still scarce in the literature. We aimed to explore long-term trends of under-5 mortality from pneumonia in 56 countries from 1960 to 2012. Data on under-5 mortality from pneumonia were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. Long-term trends were assessed for 56 countries and for 4 national income transition groups. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to detect distinct period segments of long-term trends and estimate the annual percent of changes of each period segment. The average mortality rate from pneumonia for children aged 0-4 years in 56 countries declined from 163.0 per 100000 children (95% confidence interval [CI], 119.4 to 212.8) in 1960 to 9.9 per 100000 children (95% CI, 6.4 to 13.4) in 2012, with an average annual percent of change of -5.6% (95% CI, -7.2% to -3.9%). The temporal trends of childhood mortality were different between national income transition groups. Our findings suggest a striking overall downward trend in under-5 mortality from pneumonia between 1960 and 2012. However, the rate and absolute terms of decline differ by national income transition group. These variable patterns between national income transition groups may inform further intervention setting and priority setting. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997-2010).

PubMed

Balch, Jennifer K; Nagy, R Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Bowman, David M J S; Moritz, Max A; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Williamson, Grant J

2016-06-05

Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997-2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997–2010)

PubMed Central

Balch, Jennifer K.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Moritz, Max A.; Williamson, Grant J.

2016-01-01

Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997–2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216509

Utilization Trends in Diagnostic Imaging for a Commercially Insured Population: A Study of Massachusetts Residents 2009 to 2013.

PubMed

Flaherty, Stephen; Mortele, Koenraad J; Young, Gary J

2018-06-01

To report utilization trends in diagnostic imaging among commercially insured Massachusetts residents from 2009 to 2013. Current Procedural Terminology codes were used to identify diagnostic imaging claims in the Massachusetts All-Payer Claims Database for the years 2009 to 2013. We reported utilization and spending annually by imaging modality using total claims, claims per 1,000 individuals, total expenditures, and average per claim payments. The number of diagnostic imaging claims per insured MA resident increased only 0.6% from 2009 to 2013, whereas nonradiology claims increased by 6% annually. Overall diagnostic imaging expenditures, adjusted for inflation, were 27% lower in 2009 than 2013, compared with an 18% increase in nonimaging expenditures. Average payments per claim were lower in 2013 than 2009 for all modalities except nuclear medicine. Imaging procedure claims per 1,000 MA residents increased from 2009 to 2013 by 13% in MRI, from 147 to 166; by 17% in ultrasound, from 453 to 530; and by 12% in radiography (x-ray), from 985 to 1,100. However, CT claims per 1,000 fell by 37%, from 341 to 213, and nuclear medicine declined 57%, from 89 claims per 1,000 to 38. Diagnostic imaging utilization exhibited negligible growth over the study period. Diagnostic imaging expenditures declined, largely the result of falling payments per claim in most imaging modalities, in contrast with increased utilization and spending on nonimaging services. Utilization of MRI, ultrasound, and x-ray increased from 2009 to 2013, whereas CT and nuclear medicine use decreased sharply, although CT was heavily impacted by billing code changes. Copyright © 2018 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular Disease and Patterns of Change in Functional Status Over 15 Years: Findings From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

PubMed

Kucharska-Newton, Anna; Griswold, Michael; Yao, Zhihao Howard; Foraker, Randi; Rose, Kathryn; Rosamond, Wayne; Wagenknecht, Lynne; Koton, Silvia; Pompeii, Lisa; Windham, B Gwen

2017-03-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of premature disability, yet few prospective studies have examined functional status (FS) among persons with CVD. Our aim was to examine patterns of change in FS prior to and after hospitalization for nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure among members of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study cohort. FS was assessed using a modified Rosow-Breslau questionnaire administered during routine annual telephone interviews conducted from 1993 through 2007 among 15 277 ARIC study participants. An FS score was constructed as a summary measure of responses to questions about participants' ability to perform selected tasks of daily living (eg, walking half a mile, climbing stairs). Incidence of CVD was assessed through ARIC surveillance of hospitalized events. Rate of change in FS over time prior to and following a CVD event was examined using generalized estimating equations. A decline in FS was observed on average 2 years prior to a myocardial infarction hospitalization and on average 3 years prior to a stroke or heart failure hospitalization. FS post-myocardial infarction declined relative to pre-event levels but improved to close to pre-myocardial infarction levels within 3 years. Decline in FS following incident heart failure and stroke remained over time. Observed patterns of change in FS did not differ appreciably by race or sex. This study documents that a decline in FS precedes incidence of CVD-related hospitalization by at least 2 years, providing a strong argument for routine preventative assessment of FS among older adults. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Testicular cancer: marked birth cohort effects on incidence and a decline in mortality in southern Netherlands since 1970.

PubMed

Verhoeven, Rob; Houterman, Saskia; Kiemeney, Bart; Koldewijn, Evert; Coebergh, Jan Willem

2008-02-01

The aim of our study was to interpret the changing incidence, and to describe the mortality of patients with testicular cancer in the south of the Netherlands between 1970 and 2004. On the basis of data from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands, 5-year moving average standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated. An age-period-cohort (APC) Poisson regression analysis was performed to disentangle time and birth cohort effects on incidence. The incidence rate remained stable for all ages at about 3 per 100,000 person-years until 1989 but increased annually thereafter by 4% to 6 in 2004. This increase can almost completely be attributed to an increase in localised tumours. The largest increase was found for seminoma testicular cancer (TC) patients aged 35-39 and non-seminoma TC patients aged 20-24 years. Relatively more localised and tumours with lymph node metastases were detected in the later periods. APC analysis showed the best fit with an age-cohort model. An increase in incidence of TC was found for birth cohorts since 1950. The mortality rate dropped from 1.0 per 100,000 person-years in 1970 to 0.3 in 2005, with a steep annual decline of 12% in the period 1979-1986. In conclusion, the increase in incidence of TC was strongly correlated with birth cohorts since 1945. The increase in incidence is possibly caused by in utero or early life exposure to a yet unknown risk factor. There was a steep decline in mortality in the period 1979-1986. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Groundwater balance in the Khor Arbaat basin, Red Sea State, eastern Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsheikh, Abdalla E. M.; Zeielabdein, Khalid A. Elsayed; Babikir, Ibrahim A. A.

2009-12-01

The Khor Arbaat basin is the main source of potable water supply for the more than 750,000 inhabitants of Port Sudan, eastern Sudan. The variation in hydraulic conductivity and storage capacity is due to the heterogeneity of the sediments, which range from clay and silt to gravely sand and boulders. The water table rises during the summer and winter rainy seasons; it reaches its lowest level in the dry season. The storage capacity of the Khor Arbaat aquifer is estimated to be 21.75 × 106 m3. The annual recharge through the infiltration of flood water is about 1.93 × 106 m3. The groundwater recharge, calculated as underground inflow at the ‘upper gate’, is 1.33 × 105 m3/year. The total annual groundwater recharge is 2.06 × 106 m3. The annual discharge through underground outflow at the ‘lower gate’ (through which groundwater flows onto the coastal plain) is 3.29 × 105 m3/year. Groundwater discharge due to pumping from Khor Arbaat basin is 4.38 × 106 m3/year on average. The total annual groundwater discharge is about 4.7 × 106 m3. A deficit of 2.6 × 106 m3/year is calculated. Although the total annual discharge is twice the estimated annual recharge, additional groundwater flow from the fractured basement probably balances the annual groundwater budget since no decline is observed in the piezometric levels.

Seasonal and annual survival of adult Pacific brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David H.; Rexstad, Eric A.; Sedinger, James S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Dawe, Neil K.

1997-01-01

Declining mid-winter counts of Pacific brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) and reduced numbers of nesting birds on their main breeding grounds prompted us to assess factors that may be limiting recovery of this population. We estimated seasonal and annual survival rates of adult brant in 1986-93 from resightings of leg-banded birds. Brant were banded at a major colony on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska (Y-K Delta) in 1986-92, and resighted there in 1987-93 as well as at major fall and spring migration and wintering areas in 1990-93. Seasonal survival was the same for males and females. Mean monthly survival rate was lowest (P ≤ 0.05) in late spring migration (15 Apr-1 Jun), the period of greatest subsistence harvest on the breeding grounds, and highest in winter (1 Jan-1 Mar), the period of greatest sport harvest. Annual survival rate did not vary among years (F = 0.51; 5, 718 df; P = 0.91) and averaged 0.840 (SE = 0.031) from 1986 to 1993. Subsistence harvest has contributed to low population levels of Pacific brant.

What drives productivity loss in chronic rhinosinusitis? A SNOT-22 subdomain analysis.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Naweed I; Mace, Jess C; Smith, Timothy L; Rudmik, Luke

2018-01-01

Previous studies have shown declines in productivity due to chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) are correlated with disease-specific quality-of-life (QOL) measures. However, it is unclear which symptom domains contribute primarily to productivity loss. This investigation sought to assess the association between CRS-specific QOL subdomain impairment and productivity loss. Prospective, multi-institutional, observational cohort study. There were 198 patients with refractory CRS enrolled between August 2012 and June 2015. Baseline QOL measures were obtained across five subdomains of the 22-item SinoNasal Outcome Test (SNOT-22). Lost productivity time was determined from patient-reported measures of annual absenteeism, presenteeism, and lost leisure time, and then monetized using annual daily wage rates from the 2012 US National Census and 2013 Department of Labor statistics. Productivity losses correlated with impairments in both SNOT-22 psychological dysfunction (Spearman correlation coefficient [Rs] = 0.428, P < .001), and sleep dysfunction domain scores (Rs = 0.355, P < .001). Higher SNOT-22 total scores also significantly correlated with increased monetized productivity losses (Rs = 0.366, P < .001). The mean annual productivity cost was $11,820/patient, whereas patients with comorbid immunodeficiency ($23,285/patient), tobacco use ($23,195/patient), and steroid dependency ($18,910/patient) reported higher than average annual productivity costs. Multivariate linear regression found maximum annual productivity costs in adjusted psychological ($13,300/patient, P < .001) and sleep dysfunction ($9,275/patient, P < .001) domains. Impairments in sleep and psychological SNOT-22 domains correlate with productivity losses. Patients with comorbid immunodeficiency, smoking, and steroid dependency had higher than average productivity losses. Targeted management of psychological and sleep dysfunction in combination with standard symptom control may improve patient-centered care and reduce the annual economic burden of CRS. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:23-30, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Trends in summer bottom-water temperatures on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf from 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Turner, R Eugene; Rabalais, Nancy N; Justić, Dubravko

2017-01-01

We quantified trends in the 1985 to 2015 summer bottom-water temperature on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) continental shelf for data collected at 88 stations with depths ranging from 3 to 63 m. The analysis was supplemented with monthly data collected from 1963 to 1965 in the same area. The seasonal summer peak in average bottom-water temperature varied concurrently with air temperature, but with a 2- to 5-month lag. The summer bottom-water temperature declined gradually with depth from 30 oC at stations closest to the shore, to 20 oC at the offshore edge of the study area, and increased an average 0.051 oC y-1 between1963 and 2015. The bottom-water warming in summer for all stations was 1.9 times faster compared to the rise in local summer air temperatures, and 6.4 times faster than the concurrent increase in annual global ocean sea surface temperatures. The annual rise in average summer bottom-water temperatures on the subtropical nGOM continental shelf is comparable to the few published temperature trend estimates from colder environments. These recent changes in the heat storage on the nGOM continental shelf will affect oxygen and carbon cycling, spatial distribution of fish and shrimp, and overall species diversity.

Human Brucellosis Trends: Re-emergence and Prospects for Control Using a One Health Approach in Azerbaijan (1983-2009).

PubMed

Kracalik, I T; Abdullayev, R; Asadov, K; Ismayilova, R; Baghirova, M; Ustun, N; Shikhiyev, M; Talibzade, A; Blackburn, J K

2016-06-01

Brucellosis is one of the most common and widely spread zoonotic diseases in the world. Control of the disease in humans is dependent upon limiting the infection in animals through surveillance and vaccination. Given the dramatic economic and political changes that have taken place in the former Soviet Union, which have limited control, evaluating the status of human brucellosis in former Soviet states is crucial. We assessed annual spatial and temporal trends in the epidemiology of human brucellosis in Azerbaijan, 1983-2009, in conjunction with data from a livestock surveillance and control programme (2002-2009). To analyse trends, we used a combination of segmented regression and spatial analysis. From 1983 to 2009, a total of 11 233 cases of human brucellosis were reported. Up to the mid-1990s, the incidence of human brucellosis showed a pattern of re-emergence, increasing by 25% annually, on average. Following Soviet governance, the incidence rates peaked, increasing by 1.8% annually, on average, and subsequently decreasing by 5% annually, on average, during the period 2002-2009. Despite recent national declines in human incidence, we identified geographic changes in the case distribution characterized by a geographic expansion and an increasing incidence among districts clustered in the south-east, compared to a decrease of elsewhere in the country. Males were consistently, disproportionately afflicted (71%) and incidence was highest in the 15 to 19 age group (18.1 cases/100 000). During the period 2002-2009, >10 million small ruminants were vaccinated with Rev1. Our findings highlight the improving prospects for human brucellosis control following livestock vaccination; however, the disease appears to be re-emerging in south-eastern Azerbaijan. Sustained one health measures are needed to address changing patterns of brucellosis in Azerbaijan and elsewhere in the former Soviet Union. © 2015 The Authors. Zoonoses and Public Health Published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Hydrology and water quality of the headwaters of the River Severn: Stream acidity recovery and interactions with plantation forestry under an improving pollution climate.

PubMed

Neal, Colin; Robinson, Mark; Reynolds, Brian; Neal, Margaret; Rowland, Philip; Grant, Simon; Norris, David; Williams, Bronwen; Sleep, Darren; Lawlor, Alan

2010-10-01

This paper presents new information on the hydrology and water quality of the eroding peatland headwaters of the River Severn in mid-Wales and links it to the impact of plantation conifer forestry further down the catchment. The Upper Hafren is dominated by low-growing peatland vegetation, with an average annual precipitation of around 2650 mm with around 250 mm evaporation. With low catchment permeability, stream response to rainfall is "flashy" with the rising limb to peak stormflow typically under an hour. The water quality is characteristically "dilute"; stormflow is acidic and enriched in aluminium and iron from the acid organic soil inputs. Baseflow is circum-neutral and calcium and bicarbonate bearing due to the inputs of groundwater enriched from weathering of the underlying rocks. Annual cycling is observed for the nutrients reflecting uptake and decomposition processes linked to the vegetation and for arsenic implying seasonal water-logging within the peat soils and underlying glacial drift. Over the decadal scale, sulphate and nitrate concentrations have declined while Gran alkalinity, dissolved organic carbon and iron have increased, indicating a reduction in stream acidification. Within the forested areas the water quality is slightly more concentrated and acidic, transgressing the boundary for acid neutralisation capacity as a threshold for biological damage. Annual sulphate and aluminium concentrations are double those observed in the Upper Hafren, reflecting the influence of forestry and the greater ability of trees to scavenge pollutant inputs from gaseous and mist/cloud-water sources compared to short vegetation. Acidification is decreasing more rapidly in the forest compared to the eroding peatland possibly due to the progressive harvesting of the mature forest reducing the scavenging of acidifying inputs. For the Lower Hafren, long-term average annual precipitation is slightly lower, with lower average altitude, at around 2520mm and evaporation is around double that of the Upper Hafren. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of animal control measures on pet demographics in Santa Clara County, California, 1993-2006.

PubMed

Kass, Philip H; Johnson, Karen L; Weng, Hsin-Yi

2013-01-01

The measurable benefits of animal control programs are unknown and the aim of this study was to determine the impact of these programs on pet population changes. A prospective cross-sectional study of 1000 households was implemented in 2005 to evaluate characteristics of the owned and unowned population of dogs and cats in Santa Clara County, California. The same population was previously studied 12 years earlier. During this time period, the county instituted in 1994 and then subsequently disestablished a municipal spay/neuter voucher program for cats. Dog intakes declined from 1992-2005, as they similarly did for an adjacent county (San Mateo). However, cat intakes declined significantly more in Santa Clara County than San Mateo, with an average annual decline of approximately 700 cats for the 12 year period. Time series analysis showed a greater than expected decline in the number of cats surrendered to shelters in Santa Clara County during the years the voucher program was in effect (1994-2005). The net savings to the county by reducing the number of cat shelter intakes was estimated at approximately $1.5 million. The measurable benefits of animal control programs are unknown and the aim of this study was to determine the impact of these programs on pet population changes.

Temporal trends of PM10 and its impact on mortality in Lombardy, Italy.

PubMed

Carugno, Michele; Consonni, Dario; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Biggeri, Annibale; Baccini, Michela

2017-08-01

Exposure to particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM 10 ) entails well documented adverse effects on human health. In the last decade, concentration of PM 10 in Lombardy (10 million inhabitants), Italy, has been gradually decreasing. We evaluated how the mortality burden due to PM 10 varied in that same period. We focused on 13 areas of the Region in 2003-2014: 11 cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, 1 smaller alpine town and 1 agricultural province. For each area, we collected PM 10 annual average concentrations and natural mortality data, and we used the posterior area-specific effects from a previous Bayesian meta-analysis to estimate the short-term impact of PM 10 on mortality, in terms of deaths attributable (AD) to annual average exposures exceeding the WHO threshold of 20 μg/m 3 . PM 10 annual average values showed a non-homogenous decreasing trend in the investigated time period in most of the areas. Overall, the population-weighted exposure levels decreased, except for a peak in 2011, but never met the WHO threshold. In 2003-2006, PM 10 levels were responsible, on average, for 343.0 annual AD from natural causes that decreased to 253.5 in 2007-2010 and to 208.3 in 2011-2014. Overall we estimated that PM 10 was responsible for about 1% of all natural deaths (min-max range: 0.86%-1.42%); the impact was heterogeneous among areas. By collecting routinely available data for the most populated areas in Lombardy, we returned a picture of air pollution and health trends in the last decade. Notwithstanding the observed reduction in PM 10 between 2003 and 2014 and the resulting decline in the number of AD, the impact is still relevant. Hence, appropriate policies for emission reduction could have a further beneficial effect on population health. Studies based on routine data and local effect estimates are recommended to properly inform the policy-making process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tests for senescent decline in annual survival probabilities of common pochards, Aythya ferina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Blums, P.

1997-01-01

Senescent decline in survival probabilities of animals is a topic about which much has been written but little is known. Here, we present formal tests of senescence hypotheses, using 1373 recaptures from 8877 duckling (age 0) and 504 yearling Common Pochards (Aythya ferina) banded at a Latvian study site, 1975-1992. The tests are based on capture-recapture models that explicitly incorporate sampling probabilities that, themselves, may exhibit timeand age-specific variation. The tests provided no evidence of senescent decline in survival probabilities for this species. Power of the most useful test was low for gradual declines in annual survival probability with age, but good for steeper declines. We recommend use of this type of capture-recapture modeling and analysis for other investigations of senescence in animal survival rates.

Language decline across the life span: findings from the Nun Study.

PubMed

Kemper, S; Greiner, L H; Marquis, J G; Prenovost, K; Mitzner, T L

2001-06-01

The present study examines language samples from the Nun Study. Measures of grammatical complexity and idea density were obtained from autobiographies written over a 60-year span. Participants who had met criteria for dementia were contrasted with those who did not. Grammatical complexity initially averaged 4.78 (on a 0-to-7-point scale) for participants who did not meet criteria for dementia and declined .04 units per year; grammatical complexity for participants who met criteria for dementia initially averaged 3.86 and declined .03 units per year. Idea density averaged 5.35 propositions per 10 words initially for participants who did not meet criteria for dementia and declined an average of .03 units per year, whereas idea density averaged 4.34 propositions per 10 words initially for participants who met criteria for dementia and declined .02 units per year. Adult experiences, in general, did not moderate these declines.

The end of the decline in cervical cancer mortality in Spain: trends across the period 1981-2012.

PubMed

Cervantes-Amat, Marta; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Aragonés, Nuria; Pollán, Marina; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz

2015-04-15

In Spain, cervical cancer prevention is based on opportunistic screening, due to the disease's traditionally low incidence and mortality rates. Changes in sexual behaviour, tourism and migration have, however, modified the probability of exposure to human papilloma virus among Spaniards. This study thus sought to evaluate recent cervical cancer mortality trends in Spain. We used annual female population figures and individual records of deaths certified as cancer of cervix, reclassifying deaths recorded as unspecified uterine cancer to correct coding quality problems. Joinpoint models were fitted to estimate change points in trends, as well as the annual (APC) and average annual percentage change. Log-linear Poisson models were also used to study age-period-cohort effects on mortality trends and their change points. 1981 marked the beginning of a decline in cervical cancer mortality (APC(1981-2003): -3.2; 95% CI:-3.4;-3.0) that ended in 2003, with rates reaching a plateau in the last decade (APC2003-2012: 0.1; 95% CI:-0.9; 1.2). This trend, which was observable among women aged 45-46 years (APC(2003-2012): 1.4; 95% CI:-0.1;2.9) and over 65 years (APC(2003-2012): -0.1; 95% CI:-1.9;1.7), was clearest in Spain's Mediterranean and Southern regions. The positive influence of opportunistic screening is not strong enough to further reduce cervical cancer mortality rates in the country. Our results suggest that the Spanish Health Authorities should reform current prevention programmes and surveillance strategies in order to confront the challenges posed by cervical cancer.

Potential sensitivity of photosynthesis and isoprene emission to direct radiative effects of atmospheric aerosol pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strada, Susanna; Unger, Nadine

2016-04-01

A global Earth system model is applied to quantify the impacts of direct anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing on gross primary productivity (GPP) and isoprene emission. The impacts of different pollution aerosol sources (anthropogenic, biomass burning, and non-biomass burning) are investigated by performing sensitivity experiments. The model framework includes all known light and meteorological responses of photosynthesis, but uses fixed canopy structures and phenology. On a global scale, our results show that global land carbon fluxes (GPP and isoprene emission) are not sensitive to pollution aerosols, even under a global decline in surface solar radiation (direct + diffuse) by ˜ 9 %. At a regional scale, GPP and isoprene emission show a robust but opposite sensitivity to pollution aerosols in regions where forested canopies dominate. In eastern North America and Eurasia, anthropogenic pollution aerosols (mainly from non-biomass burning sources) enhance GPP by +5-8 % on an annual average. In the northwestern Amazon Basin and central Africa, biomass burning aerosols increase GPP by +2-5 % on an annual average, with a peak in the northwestern Amazon Basin during the dry-fire season (+5-8 %). The prevailing mechanism varies across regions: light scattering dominates in eastern North America, while a reduction in direct radiation dominates in Europe and China. Aerosol-induced GPP productivity increases in the Amazon and central Africa include an additional positive feedback from reduced canopy temperatures in response to increases in canopy conductance. In Eurasia and northeastern China, anthropogenic pollution aerosols drive a decrease in isoprene emission of -2 to -12 % on an annual average. Future research needs to incorporate the indirect effects of aerosols and possible feedbacks from dynamic carbon allocation and phenology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shyer, E.B.

The New York State Development of Environmental Conservation`s Division of Mineral Resources is responsible for regulating the oil and gas industry and receiving operator`s annual well production reports. Production year 1970 and 627 active gas wells with reported production of 3 billion cubic feet by New York State operators. Ten years later in 1980, production had more than tripled to 15.5 billion cubic feet and reported active gas wells increased to 1,966. During 1990, reported gas production was 25 billion cubic feet from 5,536 active gas wells. The average production per gas well in 1970 was 4,773 thousand cubic feet.more » Average gas production per well peaked in 1978 with a reported production of 14 billion cubic feet by 1,431 active gas wells which averaged 9,821 thousand cubic feet per well. By 1994 the average production per well had decreased to 3,800 thousand cubic feet, a decrease of approximately 60%. The decrease in average well production is more a reflection of the majority of older wells reaching the lower end of their decline curve than a decrease in overall per well production. The number of completed gas wells increased following the rising price of gas. In 1970 gas was $0.30 per thousand cubic feet. By 1984 the price per thousand cubic feet had peaked at $4. After 1984 the price of gas started to decline while the number of active gas wells continued to increase. Sharp increases in gas production for certain counties such as Steuben in 1972 and 1973 and Chautauqua in 1980-83 reflects the discoveries of new fields such as Adrian Reef and Bass Island, respectively. The Stagecoach Field discovered in 1989 in Tioga County is the newest high producing field in New York State.« less

Productivity of public hospitals in Nepal: a data envelopment analysis.

PubMed

Silwal, Pushkar Raj; Ashton, Toni

2017-07-20

Public hospitals in Nepal account for a major share of the total health budget. Therefore, questions are often asked about the performance of these hospitals. Existing measures of performance are limited to historical ratio analyses without any benchmarks. The objective of this study is to explore the trends in inputs, outputs and productivity changes in Nepalese public hospitals from 2011-2012 to 2013-2014. The study was conducted among 32 Nepalese public hospitals (23 district level and 9 higher level) for the three fiscal years from 2011-2012 to 2013-2014. First, basic ratio analyses were conducted for the input and output measures over the study years. Then, Malmquist productivity change scores were obtained using data envelopment analysis. Aggregated as well as separate analyses were conducted for district level and higher level hospitals. Real expenditures of the sampled hospitals declined over the 3-year period from an average of US$ 371 000 in year 1 to US$ 368 730 in year 2 and US$ 328680 in year 3. The average aggregated hospital outputs increased marginally from 8276 in 2011-2012 to 8613 in 2013-2014. The total factor productivity of the study hospitals declined by 6.9% annually from 2011-2012 to 2013-2014. Of the total 32 hospitals, productivity increased in only 12 (37.5%) hospitals and declined in the remaining 20 hospitals. The total factor productivity loss was influenced by a decline in technology change, despite an increase in efficiency. In general, productivity of the study hospitals declined over the study period. Availability and accessibility of accurate, detailed and consistent measures of hospital inputs and outputs is a major challenge for this type of analysis. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Arterial stiffness and decline of renal function in a primary care population.

PubMed

van Varik, Bernard J; Vossen, Liv M; Rennenberg, Roger J; Stoffers, Henri E; Kessels, Alfons G; de Leeuw, Peter W; Kroon, Abraham A

2017-01-01

Arterial stiffness is an important pathophysiological factor linking cardiovascular disease and kidney disease. Controversy exists as to whether arterial stiffness causes renal function decline, or kidney dysfunction leads to stiffening or whether the association is mutual. We aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between arterial stiffness and annual rate of renal function decline. We prospectively investigated in a primary care population whether carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and annual decline in eGFR in participants aged ⩾40 years without overt kidney disease. Baseline data on PWV and eGFR were available for 587 participants; follow-up measurements with a mean duration of 5.6 years were available for 222 patients. PWV, female gender and mean arterial pressure were independently associated with eGFR at baseline, although age confounded this association. More importantly, baseline PWV, age and eGFR were independent predictors of renal function decline. Stratification for age showed that the effect of PWV on rate of eGFR decline was amplified with advancing age. On the other hand, baseline eGFR did not determine annual change in PWV, suggesting a unidirectional association between arterial stiffness and eGFR. Arterial stiffness amplifies age-related renal function decline, suggesting that arterial stiffness plays a causal role in the development of renal damage, at least at later stages of age-related renal function decline, possibly through impaired renal autoregulation and increased arterial blood pressure pulsatility.

The effect of facility-based antiretroviral therapy programs on outpatient services in Kenya and Uganda.

PubMed

Wollum, Alexandra; Dansereau, Emily; Fullman, Nancy; Achan, Jane; Bannon, Kelsey A; Burstein, Roy; Conner, Ruben O; DeCenso, Brendan; Gasasira, Anne; Haakenstad, Annie; Hanlon, Michael; Ikilezi, Gloria; Kisia, Caroline; Levine, Aubrey J; Masters, Samuel H; Njuguna, Pamela; Okiro, Emelda A; Odeny, Thomas A; Allen Roberts, D; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Duber, Herbert C

2017-08-16

Considerable debate exists concerning the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) service scale-up on non-HIV services and overall health system performance in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we examined whether ART services affected trends in non-ART outpatient department (OPD) visits in Kenya and Uganda. Using a nationally representative sample of health facilities in Kenya and Uganda, we estimated the effect of ART programs on OPD visits from 2007 to 2012. We modeled the annual percent change in non-ART OPD visits using hierarchical mixed-effects linear regressions, controlling for a range of facility characteristics. We used four different constructs of ART services to capture the different ways in which the presence, growth, overall, and relative size of ART programs may affect non-ART OPD services. Our final sample included 321 health facilities (140 in Kenya and 181 in Uganda). On average, OPD and ART visits increased steadily in Kenya and Uganda between 2007 and 2012. For facilities where ART services were not offered, the average annual increase in OPD visits was 4·2% in Kenya and 13·5% in Uganda. Among facilities that provided ART services, we found average annual OPD volume increases of 7·2% in Kenya and 5·6% in Uganda, with simultaneous annual increases of 13·7% and 12·5% in ART volumes. We did not find a statistically significant relationship between annual changes in OPD services and the presence, growth, overall, or relative size of ART services. However, in a subgroup analysis, we found that Ugandan hospitals that offered ART services had statistically significantly less growth in OPD visits than Ugandan hospitals that did not provide ART services. Our findings suggest that ART services in Kenya and Uganda did not have a statistically significant deleterious effects on OPD services between 2007 and 2012, although subgroup analyses indicate variation by facility type. Our findings are encouraging, particularly given recent recommendations for universal access to ART, demonstrating that expanding ART services is not inherently linked to declines in other health services in sub-Saharan Africa.

Quantifying the magnitude of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff decline in Mian River Basin, China.

PubMed

Fan, Jing; Tian, Fei; Yang, Yonghui; Han, Shumin; Qiu, Guoyu

2010-01-01

Runoff in North China has been dramatically declining in recent decades. Although climate change and human activity have been recognized as the primary driving factors, the magnitude of impact of each of the above factors on runoff decline is still not entirely clear. In this study, Mian River Basin (a watershed that is heavily influenced by human activity) was used as a proxy to quantify the contributions of human and climate to runoff decline in North China. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to isolate the possible impacts of man and climate. SWAT simulations suggest that while climate change accounts for only 23.89% of total decline in mean annual runoff, human activity accounts for the larger 76.11% in the basin. The gap between the simulated and measured runoff has been widening since 1978, which can only be explained in terms of increasing human activity in the region. Furthermore, comparisons of similar annual precipitation in 3 dry-years and 3 wet-years representing hydrological processes in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to isolate the magnitude of runoff decline under similar annual precipitations. The results clearly show that human activity, rather than climate, is the main driving factor of runoff decline in the basin.

28 CFR 505.2 - Annual determination of average cost of incarceration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION COST OF INCARCERATION FEE § 505.2 Annual determination of average cost of... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual determination of average cost of... average cost of incarceration. This calculation is reviewed annually and the revised figure is published...

Decline of kidney function during the pre-dialysis period in chronic kidney disease patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Janmaat, Cynthia J; van Diepen, Merel; van Hagen, Cheyenne Ce; Rotmans, Joris I; Dekker, Friedo W; Dekkers, Olaf M

2018-01-01

Substantial heterogeneity exists in reported kidney function decline in pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD). By design, kidney function decline can be studied in CKD 3-5 cohorts or dialysis-based studies. In the latter, patients are selected based on the fact that they initiated dialysis, possibly leading to an overestimation of the true underlying kidney function decline in the pre-dialysis period. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the kidney function decline during pre-dialysis in CKD stage 3-5 patients, in these two different study types. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane to identify eligible studies reporting an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline (mL/min/1.73 m 2 ) in adult pre-dialysis CKD patients. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed to obtain weighted mean annual eGFR decline. We included 60 studies (43 CKD 3-5 cohorts and 17 dialysis-based studies). The meta-analysis yielded a weighted annual mean (95% CI) eGFR decline during pre-dialysis of 2.4 (95% CI: 2.2, 2.6) mL/min/1.73 m 2 in CKD 3-5 cohorts compared to 8.5 (95% CI: 6.8, 10.1) in dialysis-based studies (difference 6.0 [95% CI: 4.8, 7.2]). To conclude, dialysis-based studies report faster mean annual eGFR decline during pre-dialysis than CKD 3-5 cohorts. Thus, eGFR decline data from CKD 3-5 cohorts should be used to guide clinical decision making in CKD patients and for power calculations in randomized controlled trials with CKD progression during pre-dialysis as the outcome.

New BLS Data on Staff Nurse Compensation and Inflation-Adjusted Wages.

PubMed

McMenamin, Peter

2014-01-01

The wages of hospital staff RNs are a measure of the economic well-being of nurses across the board. The good news is the estimated average annual compensation for hospital RNs is now $107,307, consisting of $72,862 in wages and $34,445 in fringe benefits. The bad news is inflation has taken away virtually all of those increases. How long will it take the hospital industry to respond to the economic recovery, the decline of unemployment, and increased insurance coverage of the general population? Managing the transition will require greater attention to maintaining the equilibrium of hospital nurse wages.

[Estimating the year of eradication of tuberculosis in Japan].

PubMed

Ohmori, M

1991-12-01

The time of eradication of tuberculosis has been discussed for several countries, and based on those results, a new strategic plan and goals have been elaborated. Considering such developments, and in order to make a new tuberculosis control strategy, it is important to determine the point at which eradication of tuberculosis would be achieved in Japan. Styblo proposed the two conventional definitions of eradication of tuberculosis, namely that the incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis has fallen below 1 per million population or that the prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the general population has fallen below 1% and continues to decrease. The bacteriological results of new cases have been reported since 1975 in Japan. However, those results are still of doubtful validity and reliability. Therefore, the author estimated the year of eradication of tuberculosis, according to the criterion that tuberculosis is eradicated when the proportion of the population infected with tubercle bacilli is less than 1%. If the risk of infection is changing at a regular rate, it is possible to estimate the risk of infection at any time in the past and in the future. Once the risk of infection is determined, it is also possible to calculate the age-specific prevalence of infection and the proportion of the population infected with tubercle bacilli at various times in the past and in the future. In Japan, the risk of infection before World War II was assumed to be around 4% and not to vary with calendar year. And based on the data from the prevalence surveys in Okinawa in 1968 and 1973, the risk of infection was estimated 0.3% in 1968 and has declined on average, by 10 to 11% annually. At that time, Okinawa was the only area free from BCG vaccination in Japan. The incidence rate in Japan also has declined, on average, by 10% annually. However, since late 1970s, the annual speed of decline of the incidence rate has been slowed down. Therefore, I assumed that the recent trend of the infection risk is the same as the trend of the recent incidence rate among the 0-29 year age-group. The size of the effect of age on the risk of infection has been discussed. The author also considered age-effects in the model. The weight applied to the risk of infection by age was determined by examining the age-specific positive rate in the 1930s before the era when BCG vaccination was widely used.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

50 CFR 216.242 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—8270 (an average of 1654 annually). (Q) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—1400 (an average of 280 annually). (R) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—2690 (an average of 538 annually). (S) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—2515 (an average of 503 annually). (T) Pilot whales...

50 CFR 216.242 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—8270 (an average of 1654 annually). (Q) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—1400 (an average of 280 annually). (R) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—2690 (an average of 538 annually). (S) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—2515 (an average of 503 annually). (T) Pilot whales...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is.... While salvage is not taken into account in determining the annual allowances under this method, in no...

Diurnal, seasonal, and annual trends in atmospheric CO2 at southwest London during 2000-2012: Wind sector analysis and comparison with Mace Head, Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Paniagua, Iván Y.; Lowry, David; Clemitshaw, Kevin C.; Fisher, Rebecca E.; France, James L.; Lanoisellé, Mathias; Ramonet, Michel; Nisbet, Euan G.

2015-03-01

In-situ measurements of atmospheric CO2 have been made at Royal Holloway University of London (RHUL) in Egham (EGH), Surrey, UK from 2000 to 2012. The data were linked to the global scale using NOAA-calibrated gases. Measured CO2 varies on time scales that range from minutes to inter-annual and annual cycles. Seasonality and pollution episodes occur each year. Diurnal cycles vary with daylight and temperature, which influence the biological cycle of CO2 and the degree of vertical mixing. Anthropogenic emissions of CO2 dominate the variability during weekdays when transport cycles are greater than at weekends. Seasonal cycles are driven by temporal variations in biological activity and changes in combustion emissions. Maximum mole fractions (μmol/mol) (henceforth referred to by parts per million, ppm) occur in winter, with minima in late summer. The smallest seasonal amplitude observed, peak to trough, was 17.0 ppm CO2 in 2003, whereas the largest amplitude observed was 27.1 ppm CO2 in 2008. Meteorology can strongly modify the CO2 mole fractions at different time scales. Analysis of eight 45° wind sectors shows that the highest CO2 mole fractions were recorded from the E and SE sectors. Lowest mole fractions were observed for air masses from the S and SW. Back-trajectory and meteorological analyses of the data confirm that the dominant sources of CO2 are anthropogenic emissions from London and SE England. The largest annual rate of increase in the annual average of CO2, 3.26 ppm yr-1 (p < 0.05), was for the W sector with a smaller increase, 2.56 ppm yr-1 (p < 0.05), for the E sector. Calm winds showed an annual growth rate of 1.16 ppm yr-1 CO2 (p < 0.05) implying declining local sources. The EGH site shows an average growth rate of 2.5 ppm yr-1 CO2 (p < 0.05) over the measured period, which exceeds the observed global trend and contrasts with the decrease in CO2 emissions reported in UK greenhouse gas inventories. This is presumably because the region has had higher growth in combustion emissions than the global average, though the low growth rate in calm weather implies the local emissions have grown more slowly. The seasonal cycle at EGH had larger amplitudes than those recorded at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station (MHD) on the W coast of Ireland. Overall, the growth rate observed in annual average CO2 at EGH was larger than that at MHD by about 0.5 ppm yr-1.

Diurnal, seasonal, and annual trends in tropospheric CO in Southwest London during 2000-2015: Wind sector analysis and comparisons with urban and remote sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Paniagua, Iván Y.; Lowry, David; Clemitshaw, Kevin C.; Palmer, Paul I.; Fisher, Rebecca E.; France, James L.; Mendoza, Alberto; O'Doherty, Simon; Forster, Grant; Lanoisellé, M.; Nisbet, Euan G.

2018-03-01

Ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and meteorological parameters measured at the Egham (EGH) semi-rural site in SW London during 2000-2015 have permitted wind sector analysis of diurnal and seasonal cycles, and interpretation of long-term trends. CO daily amplitudes are used as a proxy for anthropogenic emissions. At EGH, morning and evening peaks in CO arise from the dominant contribution of road transport sources. Smaller amplitudes are observed during weekends than weekdays due to lower combustion emissions, and for mornings compared to evenings due to the timing of the development and break-up of the nocturnal inversion layer or planetary boundary layer (PBL). A wavelet transform revealed that the dominant mode of CO variability is the annual cycle, with apparent winter maxima likely due to increased CO emissions from domestic heating with summer minima ascribed to enhanced dispersion and dilution during the annual maximum of PBL mixing heights. Over the last two decades, both mitigation measures to reduce CO emissions and also a major switch to diesel cars, have accompanied a change at EGH from the dominance of local diurnal sources to a site measuring close to Atlantic background levels in summer months. CO observed in the S and SW wind sectors has declined by 4.7 and 5.9 ppb yr-1 respectively. The EGH CO record shows the highest levels in the early 2000s, with levels in E and calm winds comparable to those recorded at background stations in Greater London. However, since 2012, levels in S-SW sector have become more comparable with Mace Head background except during rush-hour periods. Marked declines in CO are observed during 2000-2008 for the NE, E, SE (London) and calm wind sectors, with the smallest declines observed for the S, SW and W (background) sectors. For the majority of wind sectors, the decline in CO is less noticeable since 2008, with an apparent stabilisation for NE, E and SE after 2009. The EGH CO data record exhibits a similar but slower exponential decay, but from a much lower starting concentration, than do CO data recorded at selected monitoring sites in urban areas in SE England. CO/CO2 residuals determined using hourly averaged datain the diurnal cycle demonstrate a clear decline in CO from 2000 to 2015 during daily periods of increased vehicle traffic, which is consistent with a sustained reduction in CO emissions from the road transport sector.

Decreasing trends in cardiovascular mortality in Turkey between 1988 and 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality increased in developed countries until the 1970s then started to decline. Turkey is about to complete its demographic transition, which may also influence mortality trends. This study evaluated trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality between 1988 and 2008. Methods The number of deaths by cause (ICD-8), age and sex were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) annually between 1988 and 2008. Population statistics were based on census data (1990 and 2000) and Turkstat projections. European population standardised mortality rates for CHD and stroke were calculated for men and women over 35 years old. Joinpoint Regression was used to identify the points at which a statistically significant (p < 0.05) change of the trend occurred. Results The CHD mortality rate increased by 2.9% in men and 2.0% in women annually from 1988 to 1994, then started to decline. The annual rate of decline for men was 1.7% between 1994–2008, whilst in women it was 2.8% between 1994–2000 and 6.7% between 2005–2008 (p < 0.05 for all periods). Stroke mortality declined between 1990–1994 (annual fall of 3.8% in both sexes), followed by a slight increase between 1994–2004 (0.6% in men, 1.1% in women), then a further decline until 2008 (annual reduction of 4.4% in men, 7.9% in women) (p < 0.05 for all periods). Conclusions A decrease in CVD mortality was observed from 1995 onwards in Turkey. The causes need to be explored in detail to inform future policy priorities in noncommunicable disease control. PMID:24079269

Anomalously Strong and Rapid Drying of the Tropical Lower Stratosphere in 2016: Connections to Both the QBO and ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurst, D. F.; Davis, S. M.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Lambert, A.; Read, W. G.; Hall, E.; Jordan, A. F.

2017-12-01

Variations in tropical lower stratospheric water vapor are generally attributable to annual cycles in the Brewer-Dobson circulation and inter-annual phenomenon like the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extremes in tropical lower stratospheric water vapor (SWV) occur when these annual and inter-annual changes are constructively superimposed. The atypical progression of the 2015-16 QBO led to a strong and rapid cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere during 2016. From December 2015 to November 2016, monthly tropical mean (15°S-15°N) coldpoint temperature (CPT) anomalies decreased 3.2°C, from 1.1 to -2.1°C. Accordingly, monthly tropical mean SWV anomalies at 83 hPa dropped 1.9 ppm, from 0.85 to -1.05 ppm. This decline in SWV anomalies is equivalent to 40% of the long-term December average tropical abundance of SWV at 83 hPa. The 2016 decreases in tropical anomalies of both CPTs and SWV were not zonally uniform, with average Eastern Hemisphere reductions greater by 2°C and 0.9 ppm (50%), respectively. Since the QBO typically has a zonally uniform effect on tropical CPTs, this implies a zonally non-uniform mechanism like ENSO also influenced CPTs during 2016. The transition of ENSO from strong El Niño to weak La Niña conditions in 2016 would induce this zonal non-uniformity by shifting convective activity from the Eastern Pacific to the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Evidence indicates the simultaneous cooling of tropical CPTs by both the QBO and ENSO during 2016 rapidly dried the tropical lower stratosphere with anomalous strength, especially in the Eastern Hemisphere.

Post Hoc Analyses of Randomized Clinical Trial for the Effect of Clopidogrel Added to Aspirin on Kidney Function.

PubMed

Ikeme, Jesse C; Pergola, Pablo E; Scherzer, Rebecca; Shlipak, Michael G; Benavente, Oscar R; Peralta, Carmen A

2017-07-07

Despite the high burden of CKD, few specific therapies are available that can halt disease progression. In animal models, clopidogrel has emerged as a potential therapy to preserve kidney function. The effect of clopidogrel on kidney function in humans has not been established. The Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes Study randomized participants with prior lacunar stroke to treatment with aspirin or aspirin plus clopidogrel. We compared annual eGFR decline and incidence of rapid eGFR decline (≥30% from baseline) using generalized estimating equations and interval-censored proportional hazards regression, respectively. We also stratified our analyses by baseline eGFR, systolic BP target, and time after randomization. At randomization, median age was 62 (interquartile range, 55-71) years old; 36% had a history of diabetes, 90% had hypertension, and the median eGFR was 81 (interquartile range, 65-94) ml/min per 1 m 2 . Persons receiving aspirin plus clopidogrel had an average annual change in kidney function of -1.39 (95% confidence interval, -1.15 to -1.62) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year compared with -1.52 (95% confidence interval, -1.30 to -1.74) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year among persons receiving aspirin only ( P =0.42). Rapid kidney function decline occurred in 21% of participants receiving clopidogrel plus aspirin compared with 22% of participants receiving aspirin plus placebo (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.79 to 1.10; P =0.42). Findings did not vary by baseline eGFR, time after randomization, or systolic BP target (all P values for interaction were >0.3). We found no effect of clopidogrel added to aspirin compared with aspirin alone on kidney function decline among persons with prior lacunar stroke. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Differentiating Natural and Anthropogenic Groundwater-Level Changes in Critical Habitats: An Example from Devils Hole, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halford, K. J.; Jackson, T.; Fenelon, J.

2017-12-01

Endangered species such as the Devils Hole pupfish can be affected by decadal groundwater-level changes of less than 1 ft. These relatively minor changes in long-term water levels primarily result from temporal variations in recharge and groundwater development. Natural groundwater-level changes are the summation of episodic rises from infrequent recharge events and steady declines from regional groundwater discharge. Rising water levels have been observed in Devils Hole and across southern Nevada in response to wetter conditions during 1970-2016 relative to the 1900-1970 period. Interpretation of water-level changes in Devils Hole were made tractable by differentiating naturally occurring rises from pumping effects with analytical water-level models. Effects of local and regional pumping on water-level changes in Devils Hole were differentiated easily with a calibrated groundwater-flow model after removing natural rising trends. Annual average water levels declined 2.3 ft from 1968-1972 in response to local pumping within 2 mi of Devils Hole and rose 1.7 ft from 1973-2016 in response to the cumulative effects of recharge, recovery from the cessation of local pumping, and long-term declines of regional pumping.

APOE, MAPT, and COMT and Parkinson's Disease Susceptibility and Cognitive Symptom Progression.

PubMed

Paul, Kimberly C; Rausch, Rebecca; Creek, Michelle M; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Bronstein, Jeff M; Bordelon, Yvette; Ritz, Beate

2016-04-02

Cognitive decline is well recognized in Parkinson's disease (PD) and a major concern for patients and caregivers. Apolipoprotein E (APOE), catechol-O-methyl transferase (COMT), and microtubule-associated protein tau (MAPT) are of interest related to their contributions to cognitive decline or dementia in PD. Here, we investigate whether APOE, COMT, or MAPT influence the rate of cognitive decline in PD patients. We relied on 634 PD patients and 879 controls to examine gene-PD susceptibility associations, and nested longitudinal cohort of 246 patients from the case-control study, which followed patients on average 5 years and 7.5 years into disease. We repeatedly assessed cognitive symptom progression with the MMSE and conducted a full neuropsychological battery on a subset of 183 cognitively normal patients. We used repeated-measures regression analyses to assess longitudinal associations between genotypes and cognitive progression scores. The MAPT H1 haplotype was associated with PD susceptibility. APOE 4 carriers (ɛ4+) (p = 0.03) and possibly COMT Met/Met (p = 0.06) carriers exhibited faster annual decline on the MMSE. Additionally, APOEɛ4+ carriers showed faster decline in many of the neuropsychological test scores. No such differences in neuropsychological outcomes were seen for the COMT genotypes. This work supports a growing set of research identifying overlapping etiology and pathology between synucleinopathies, such as PD, Alzheimer's disease, and tauopathies, especially in the context of cognitive dysfunction in PD. We provide support for the argument that APOE ɛ4+ and COMT Met/Met genotypes can be used as predictors of faster cognitive decline in PD.

Trends in rates of occupational fatal injuries in the United States (1983-92).

PubMed

Bailer, A J; Stayner, L T; Stout, N A; Reed, L D; Gilbert, S J

1998-07-01

An updated version of a national surveillance system of traumatic occupational fatalities was used to explore adjusted and unadjusted trends in rates of fatal injury. Data from the national traumatic occupational fatalities surveillance system were combined with data on employment from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poisson regression was then used to examine trends in rates of occupational fatality injuries while controlling for demographic and workplace characteristics. Adjusted annual changes in rates of fatal injuries ranged from a decline of 6.2% for workers in technical and administrative support occupations--for example, health, science, and engineering technicians, pilots, computer programmers--to an increase of 1.6% in machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors. For industries, annual changes ranged from a decline of 5.3% for workers in public administration--for example, justice, public order, and safety workers--to an increase of 2.6% for workers in the wholesale trade. By comparison, the annual decline over all industries and occupations was 3.1%. In many industries and occupations, an effect modification of annual trends by the age of the worker was also found with the oldest workers experiencing either no decline or a significant increase in rates of fatal injuries. This general pattern of decline, adjusted for the effects of demographic characteristics of the worker population, is encouraging; however, increases in rates of fatal injuries found in particular industries and occupations, suggest appropriate targets for increased injury prevention efforts.

Trends in rates of occupational fatal injuries in the United States (1983-92)

PubMed Central

Bailer, A. J.; Stayner, L. T.; Stout, N. A.; Reed, L. D.; Gilbert, S. J.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: An updated version of a national surveillance system of traumatic occupational fatalities was used to explore adjusted and unadjusted trends in rates of fatal injury. METHODS: Data from the national traumatic occupational fatalities surveillance system were combined with data on employment from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poisson regression was then used to examine trends in rates of occupational fatality injuries while controlling for demographic and workplace characteristics. RESULTS: Adjusted annual changes in rates of fatal injuries ranged from a decline of 6.2% for workers in technical and administrative support occupations--for example, health, science, and engineering technicians, pilots, computer programmers--to an increase of 1.6% in machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors. For industries, annual changes ranged from a decline of 5.3% for workers in public administration--for example, justice, public order, and safety workers--to an increase of 2.6% for workers in the wholesale trade. By comparison, the annual decline over all industries and occupations was 3.1%. In many industries and occupations, an effect modification of annual trends by the age of the worker was also found with the oldest workers experiencing either no decline or a significant increase in rates of fatal injuries. CONCLUSIONS: This general pattern of decline, adjusted for the effects of demographic characteristics of the worker population, is encouraging; however, increases in rates of fatal injuries found in particular industries and occupations, suggest appropriate targets for increased injury prevention efforts.   PMID:9816383

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: A multiscale joinpoint regression analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Although prostate cancer-related incidence and mortality have declined recently, striking racial/ethnic differences persist in the United States. Visualizing and modelling temporal trends of prostate cancer late-stage incidence, and how they vary according to geographic locations and race, should help explaining such disparities. Joinpoint regression is increasingly used to identify the timing and extent of changes in time series of health outcomes. Yet, most analyses of temporal trends are aspatial and conducted at the national level or for a single cancer registry. Methods Time series (1981-2007) of annual proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases were analyzed for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks in each county of Florida. Noise in the data was first filtered by binomial kriging and results were modelled using joinpoint regression. A similar analysis was also conducted at the state level and for groups of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties. Significant racial differences were detected using tests of parallelism and coincidence of time trends. A new disparity statistic was introduced to measure spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of racial disparities. Results State-level percentage of late-stage diagnosis decreased 50% since 1981; a decline that accelerated in the 90's when Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening was introduced. Analysis at the metropolitan and non-metropolitan levels revealed that the frequency of late-stage diagnosis increased recently in urban areas, and this trend was significant for white males. The annual rate of decrease in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines varied greatly among counties and racial groups. Most counties with non-significant average annual percent change (AAPC) were located in the Florida Panhandle for white males, whereas they clustered in South-eastern Florida for black males. The new disparity statistic indicated that the spatial extent of racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Conclusions Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes. PMID:22142274

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: a multiscale joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Goovaerts, Pierre; Xiao, Hong

2011-12-05

Although prostate cancer-related incidence and mortality have declined recently, striking racial/ethnic differences persist in the United States. Visualizing and modelling temporal trends of prostate cancer late-stage incidence, and how they vary according to geographic locations and race, should help explaining such disparities. Joinpoint regression is increasingly used to identify the timing and extent of changes in time series of health outcomes. Yet, most analyses of temporal trends are aspatial and conducted at the national level or for a single cancer registry. Time series (1981-2007) of annual proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases were analyzed for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks in each county of Florida. Noise in the data was first filtered by binomial kriging and results were modelled using joinpoint regression. A similar analysis was also conducted at the state level and for groups of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties. Significant racial differences were detected using tests of parallelism and coincidence of time trends. A new disparity statistic was introduced to measure spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of racial disparities. State-level percentage of late-stage diagnosis decreased 50% since 1981; a decline that accelerated in the 90's when Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening was introduced. Analysis at the metropolitan and non-metropolitan levels revealed that the frequency of late-stage diagnosis increased recently in urban areas, and this trend was significant for white males. The annual rate of decrease in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines varied greatly among counties and racial groups. Most counties with non-significant average annual percent change (AAPC) were located in the Florida Panhandle for white males, whereas they clustered in South-eastern Florida for black males. The new disparity statistic indicated that the spatial extent of racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes.

Honduras.

PubMed

1985-08-01

This discussion of Honduras covers the following: the history of the country's demographic situation; the government's overall approach to population problems; population data systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; the goverment's view of the importance of population policy in realizing development objectives; population size, growth, and natural increase; morbidity and mortality; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. Between the censuses of 1910-40, Honduras grew at an average annual rate of more than 1.5% per annum. The rate of population growth reached 2% per annum after 1940 and 3% after about 1955. By 1970-75 the rate of natural increase was estimated to be about 3.5% per annum, due to the net effect of a crude birthrate of 49/1000 and a crude death rate of about 14/1000. The rate of natural increase has remained around 3.5% in recent years, although the crude death rate has declined to 44/1000 and the crude death rate to about 10/1000. The government wants to substantially reduce the rate of population growth, primarily by means of modifying fertility and averting large-scale immigration of refugees in the future. It desires to reduce the country's high levels of mortality and to adjust patterns of spatial distribution, primarily to improve agricultural productivity and promote national economic intergration. The government also seeks to decrease the emigration of qualified personnel. In the past several years, the government of Honduras has increased its commitment to formulating and implementing explicit population policies as a means of attaining overall development objcetives. With a population of around 4.1 million inhabitants as of 1983, Honduras has been growing at an average annual rate of 3.4% in recent years. According to UN projections, the population is expected to grow to about 7 million by 2000. The average life expectancy at birth for both sexes was 55.3 years in 1974 and around 60 years as of 1982. The crude death rate was estimated to be 10/1000 during 1980-85; infant mortality declined from 117/1000 live births in 1971-72 to 86/1000 in 1978. Diarrheal disease is the single most important cause of death in Honduras, and mortality from other water-related diseases remains high in comparison with other Central American countries. Malnutrition also is serious. The government considers levels and trends of mortality to be unacceptable and is particularly concerned about the continuing high level of infant mortality. In recent years the crude birthrate averaged around 44/1000; the 1981 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey found the total fertility rate to be about 6.5 births/woman, which represents a 13% decline in the level of fertility between 1971-72 and 1981.

Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].

PubMed

Merrick, T W

1991-04-01

This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.

Ethnoracial differences in brain structure change and cognitive change.

PubMed

Gavett, Brandon E; Fletcher, Evan; Harvey, Danielle; Farias, Sarah Tomaszewski; Olichney, John; Beckett, Laurel; DeCarli, Charles; Mungas, Dan

2018-04-12

The purpose of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between structural MRI and cognition in a diverse sample. Older adults (n = 444; Mage = 74.5)-121 African Americans, 212 Whites, and 111 Hispanics-underwent an average of 5.3 annual study visits. Approximately half were cognitively normal at baseline (global Clinical Dementia Rating M = 0.5). Of the patients with dementia, most (79%) were diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease (AD). MRI measures of gray matter volume (baseline and change), and hippocampal and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volumes (baseline), were used to predict change in global cognition. Multilevel latent variable modeling was used to test the hypothesis that brain effects on cognitive change differed across ethnoracial groups. In a multivariable model, global gray matter change was the strongest predictor of cognitive decline in Whites and African Americans and specific temporal lobe change added incremental explanatory power in Whites. Baseline WMH volume was the strongest predictor of cognitive decline in Hispanics and made an incremental contribution in Whites. We found ethnoracial group differences in associations of brain variables with cognitive decline. The unique patterns in Whites appeared to suggest a greater influence of AD in this group. In contrast, cognitive decline in African Americans and Hispanics was most uniquely attributable to global gray matter change and baseline WMH, respectively. Brain changes underlying cognitive decline in older adults are heterogeneous and depend on fixed and modifiable risk factors that differ based on ethnicity and race. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Latin America: how a region surprised the experts.

PubMed

De Sherbinin, A

1993-02-01

In 1960-1970, family planning specialists and demographers worried that poverty, limited education, Latin machismo, and strong catholic ideals would obstruct family planning efforts to reduce high fertility in Latin America. It had the highest annual population growth rate in the world (2.8%), which would increase the population 2-fold in 25 years. Yet, the UN's 1992 population projection for Latin America and the Caribbean in the year 2000 was about 20% lower than its 1963 projection (just over 500 vs. 638 million). Since life expectancy increased simultaneously from 57 to 68 years, this reduced projection was caused directly by a large decline in fertility from 5.9 to 3. A regression analysis of 11 Latin American and Caribbean countries revealed that differences in the contraceptive prevalence rates accounted for 90% of the variation in the total fertility rate between countries. Thus, contraception played a key role in the fertility decline. The second most significant determinant of fertility decline was an increase in the average age at first marriage from about 20 to 23 years. Induced abortion and breast feeding did not contribute significantly to fertility decline. The major socioeconomic factors responsible for the decline included economic development and urbanization, resulting in improvements in health care, reduced infant and child mortality, and increases in female literacy, education, and labor force participation. Public and private family planning programs also contributed significantly to the decline. They expanded from cities to remote rural areas, thereby increasing access to contraception. By the early 1990s, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia had among the lowest levels of unmet need (13-24%) in developing countries. Other key factors of fertility decline were political commitment, strong communication efforts, and stress on quality services. Latin America provides hope to other regions where religion and culture promote a large family size.

20 CFR 30.805 - What evidence does OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced compensable wage-loss... OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced... the Social Security Administration to establish a covered Part E employee's presumed average annual...

20 CFR 30.805 - What evidence does OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced compensable wage-loss... OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced... the Social Security Administration to establish a covered Part E employee's presumed average annual...

A Prospective Study of the Incidence of Juvenile-Onset Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis After Implementation of a National HPV Vaccination Program.

PubMed

Novakovic, Daniel; Cheng, Alan T L; Zurynski, Yvonne; Booy, Robert; Walker, Paul J; Berkowitz, Robert; Harrison, Henley; Black, Robert; Perry, Christopher; Vijayasekaran, Shyan; Wabnitz, David; Burns, Hannah; Tabrizi, Sepehr N; Garland, Suzanne M; Elliott, Elizabeth; Brotherton, Julia M L

2018-01-04

Recurrent respiratory papillomatosis is a rare but morbid disease caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6 and 11. Infection is preventable through HPV vaccination. Following an extensive quadrivalent HPV vaccination program (females 12-26 years in 2007-2009) in Australia, we established a method to monitor incidence and demographics of juvenile-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (JORRP) cases. The Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit undertakes surveillance of rare pediatric diseases by contacting practitioners monthly. We enrolled pediatric otorhinolaryngologists and offered HPV typing. We report findings for 5 years to end 2016. The average annual incidence rate was 0.07 per 100000. The largest number of cases was reported in the first year, with decreasing annual frequency thereafter. Rates declined from 0.16 per 100000 in 2012 to 0.02 per 100000 in 2016 (P = .034). Among the 15 incident cases (60% male), no mothers were vaccinated prepregnancy, 20% had maternal history of genital warts, and 60% were first born; 13/15 were born vaginally. Genotyped cases were HPV-6 (n = 4) or HPV-11 (n = 3). To our knowledge, this is the first report internationally documenting decline in JORRP incidence in children following a quadrivalent HPV vaccination program. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effect of irrigation on needle morphology, shoot and stem growth in a drought-exposed Pinus sylvestris forest.

PubMed

Dobbertin, Matthias; Eilmann, Britta; Bleuler, Peter; Giuggiola, Arnaud; Graf Pannatier, Elisabeth; Landolt, Werner; Schleppi, Patrick; Rigling, Andreas

2010-03-01

In Valais, Switzerland, Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) are declining, mainly following drought. To assess the impact of drought on tree growth and survival, an irrigation experiment was initiated in 2003 in a mature pine forest, approximately doubling the annual precipitation. Tree crown transparency (lack of foliage) and leaf area index (LAI) were annually assessed. Seven irrigated and six control trees were felled in 2006, and needles, stem discs and branches were taken for growth analysis. Irrigation in 2004 and 2005, both with below-average precipitation, increased needle size, area and mass, stem growth and, with a 1-year delay, shoot length. This led to a relative decrease in tree crown transparency (-14%) and to an increase in stand LAI (+20%). Irrigation increased needle length by 70%, shoot length by 100% and ring width by 120%, regardless of crown transparency. Crown transparency correlated positively with mean needle size, shoot length and ring width and negatively with specific leaf area. Trees with high crown transparency (low growth, short needles) experienced similar increases in needle mass and growth with irrigation than trees with low transparency (high growth, long needles), indicating that seemingly declining trees were able to 'recover' when water supply became sufficient. A simple drought index before and during the irrigation explained most of the variation found in the parameters for both irrigated and control trees.

Selected approaches to estimate water-budget components of the High Plains, 1940 through 1949 and 2000 through 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanton, Jennifer S.; Qi, Sharon L.; Ryter, Derek W.; Falk, Sarah E.; Houston, Natalie A.; Peterson, Steven M.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Christenson, Scott C.

2011-01-01

The High Plains aquifer, underlying almost 112 million acres in the central United States, is one of the largest aquifers in the Nation. It is the primary water supply for drinking water, irrigation, animal production, and industry in the region. Expansion of irrigated agriculture throughout the past 60 years has helped make the High Plains one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Nation. Extensive withdrawals of groundwater for irrigation have caused water-level declines in many parts of the aquifer and increased concerns about the long-term sustainability of the aquifer. Quantification of water-budget components is a prerequisite for effective water-resources management. Components analyzed as part of this study were precipitation, evapotranspiration, recharge, surface runoff, groundwater discharge to streams, groundwater fluxes to and from adjacent geologic units, irrigation, and groundwater in storage. These components were assessed for 1940 through 1949 (representing conditions prior to substantial groundwater development and referred to as "pregroundwater development" throughout this report) and 2000 through 2009. Because no single method can perfectly quantify the magnitude of any part of a water budget at a regional scale, results from several methods and previously published work were compiled and compared for this study when feasible. Results varied among the several methods applied, as indicated by the range of average annual volumes given for each component listed in the following paragraphs. Precipitation was derived from three sources: the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, data developed using Next Generation Weather Radar and measured precipitation from weather stations by the Office of Hydrologic Development at the National Weather Service for the Sacramento-Soil Moisture Accounting model, and precipitation measured at weather stations and spatially distributed using an inverse-distance-weighted interpolation method. Precipitation estimates using these sources, as a 10-year average annual total volume for the High Plains, ranged from 192 to 199 million acre-feet (acre-ft) for 1940 through 1949 and from 185 to 199 million acre-ft for 2000 through 2009. Evapotranspiration was obtained from three sources: the National Weather Service Sacramento-Soil Moisture Accounting model, the Simplified-Surface-Energy-Balance model using remotely sensed data, and the Soil-Water-Balance model. Average annual total evapotranspiration estimated using these sources was 148 million acre-ft for 1940 through 1949 and ranged from 154 to 193 million acre-ft for 2000 through 2009. The maximum amount of shallow groundwater lost to evapotranspiration was approximated for areas where the water table was within 5 feet of land surface. The average annual total volume of evapotranspiration from shallow groundwater was 9.0 million acre-ft for 1940 through 1949 and ranged from 9.6 to 12.6 million acre-ft for 2000 through 2009. Recharge was estimated using two soil-water-balance models as well as previously published studies for various locations across the High Plains region. Average annual total recharge ranged from 8.3 to 13.2 million acre-ft for 1940 through 1949 and from 15.9 to 35.0 million acre-ft for 2000 through 2009. Surface runoff and groundwater discharge to streams were determined using discharge records from streamflow-gaging stations near the edges of the High Plains and the Base-Flow Index program. For 1940 through 1949, the average annual net surface runoff leaving the High Plains was 1.9 million acre-ft, and the net loss from the High Plains aquifer by groundwater discharge to streams was 3.1 million acre-ft. For 2000 through 2009, the average annual net surface runoff leaving the High Plains region was 1.3 million acre-ft and the net loss by groundwater discharge to streams was 3.9 million acre-ft. For 2000 through 2009, the average annual total estimated groundwater pumpage volume from two soil-water-balance models ranged from 8.7 to 16.2 million acre-ft. Average annual irrigation application rates for the High Plains ranged from 8.4 to 16.2 inches per year. The USGS Water-Use Program published estimated total annual pumpage from the High Plains aquifer for 2000 and 2005. Those volumes were greater than those estimated from the two soil-water-balance models. Total groundwater in storage in the High Plains aquifer was estimated as 3,173 million acre-ft prior to groundwater development and 2,907 million acre-ft in 2007. The average annual decrease of groundwater in storage between 2000 and 2007 was 10 million acre-ft per year.

Hemoglobin level in older persons and incident Alzheimer disease: prospective cohort analysis.

PubMed

Shah, R C; Buchman, A S; Wilson, R S; Leurgans, S E; Bennett, D A

2011-07-19

To test the hypothesis that level of hemoglobin is associated with incident Alzheimer disease (AD). A total of 881 community-dwelling older persons participating in the Rush Memory and Aging Project without dementia and a measure of hemoglobin level underwent annual cognitive assessments and clinical evaluations for AD. During an average of 3.3 years of follow-up, 113 persons developed AD. In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, and education, there was a nonlinear relationship between baseline level of hemoglobin such that higher and lower levels of hemoglobin were associated with AD risk (hazard ratio [HR] for the quadratic of hemoglobin 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.11). Findings were unchanged after controlling for multiple covariates. When compared to participants with clinically normal hemoglobin (n = 717), participants with anemia (n = 154) had a 60% increased hazard for developing AD (95% CI 1.02-2.52), as did participants with clinically high hemoglobin (n = 10, HR 3.39, 95% CI 1.25-9.20). Linear mixed-effects models showed that lower and higher hemoglobin levels were associated with a greater rate of global cognitive decline (parameter estimate for quadratic of hemoglobin = -0.008, SE -0.002, p < 0.001). Compared to participants with clinically normal hemoglobin, participants with anemia had a -0.061 z score unit annual decline in global cognitive function (SE 0.012, p < 0.001), as did participants with clinically high hemoglobin (-0.090 unit/year, SE 0.038, p = 0.018). In older persons without dementia, both lower and higher hemoglobin levels are associated with an increased hazard for developing AD and more rapid cognitive decline.

Ecological-economic assessment of the effects of freshwater flow in the Florida Everglades on recreational fisheries.

PubMed

Brown, Christina Estela; Bhat, Mahadev G; Rehage, Jennifer S; Mirchi, Ali; Boucek, Ross; Engel, Victor; Ault, Jerald S; Mozumder, Pallab; Watkins, David; Sukop, Michael

2018-06-15

This research develops an integrated methodology to determine the economic value to anglers of recreational fishery ecosystem services in Everglades National Park that could result from different water management scenarios. The study first used bio-hydrological models to link managed freshwater inflows to indicators of fishery productivity and ecosystem health, then link those models to anglers' willingness-to-pay for various attributes of the recreational fishing experience and monthly fishing effort. This approach allowed us to estimate the foregone economic benefits of failing to meet monthly freshwater delivery targets. The study found that the managed freshwater delivery to the Park had declined substantially over the years and had fallen short of management targets. This shortage in the flow resulted in the decline of biological productivity of recreational fisheries in downstream coastal areas. This decline had in turn contributed to reductions in the overall economic value of recreational ecosystem services enjoyed by anglers. The study estimated the annual value of lost recreational services at $68.81 million. The losses were greater in the months of dry season when the water shortage was higher and the number of anglers fishing also was higher than the levels in wet season. The study also developed conservative estimates of implicit price of water for recreation, which ranged from $11.88 per AF in November to $112.11 per AF in April. The annual average price was $41.54 per AF. Linking anglers' recreational preference directly to a decision variable such as water delivery is a powerful and effective way to make management decision. This methodology has relevant applications to water resource management, serving as useful decision-support metrics, as well as for policy and restoration scenario analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hemoglobin level in older persons and incident Alzheimer disease

PubMed Central

Buchman, A.S.; Wilson, R.S.; Leurgans, S.E.; Bennett, D.A.

2011-01-01

Objective: To test the hypothesis that level of hemoglobin is associated with incident Alzheimer disease (AD). Methods: A total of 881 community-dwelling older persons participating in the Rush Memory and Aging Project without dementia and a measure of hemoglobin level underwent annual cognitive assessments and clinical evaluations for AD. Results: During an average of 3.3 years of follow-up, 113 persons developed AD. In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, and education, there was a nonlinear relationship between baseline level of hemoglobin such that higher and lower levels of hemoglobin were associated with AD risk (hazard ratio [HR] for the quadratic of hemoglobin 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.11). Findings were unchanged after controlling for multiple covariates. When compared to participants with clinically normal hemoglobin (n = 717), participants with anemia (n = 154) had a 60% increased hazard for developing AD (95% CI 1.02–2.52), as did participants with clinically high hemoglobin (n = 10, HR 3.39, 95% CI 1.25–9.20). Linear mixed-effects models showed that lower and higher hemoglobin levels were associated with a greater rate of global cognitive decline (parameter estimate for quadratic of hemoglobin = −0.008, SE −0.002, p < 0.001). Compared to participants with clinically normal hemoglobin, participants with anemia had a −0.061 z score unit annual decline in global cognitive function (SE 0.012, p < 0.001), as did participants with clinically high hemoglobin (−0.090 unit/year, SE 0.038, p = 0.018). Conclusions: In older persons without dementia, both lower and higher hemoglobin levels are associated with an increased hazard for developing AD and more rapid cognitive decline. PMID:21753176

Survival and recovery rates of American woodcock banded in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krementz, David G.; Hines, James E.; Luukkonen, David R.

2003-01-01

American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population indices have declined since U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) monitoring began in 1968. Management to stop and/or reverse this population trend has been hampered by the lack of recent information on woodcock population parameters. Without recent information on survival rate trends, managers have had to assume that the recent declines in recruitment indices are the only parameter driving woodcock declines. Using program MARK, we estimated annual survival and recovery rates of adult and juvenile American woodcock, and estimated summer survival of local (young incapable of sustained flight) woodcock banded in Michigan between 1978 and 1998. We constructed a set of candidate models from a global model with age (local, juvenile, adult) and time (year)-dependent survival and recovery rates to no age or time-dependent survival and recovery rates. Five models were supported by the data, with all models suggesting that survival rates differed among age classes, and 4 models had survival rates that were constant over time. The fifth model suggested that juvenile and adult survival rates were linear on a logit scale over time. Survival rates averaged over likelihood-weighted model results were 0.8784 +/- 0.1048 (SE) for locals, 0.2646 +/- 0.0423 (SE) for juveniles, and 0.4898 +/- 0.0329 (SE) for adults. Weighted average recovery rates were 0.0326 +/- 0.0053 (SE) for juveniles and 0.0313 +/- 0.0047 (SE) for adults. Estimated differences between our survival estimates and those from prior years were small, and our confidence around those differences was variable and uncertain. juvenile survival rates were low.

A 125 year record of fluvial calcium flux from a temperate catchment: Interplay of climate, land-use change and atmospheric deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worrall, F.; Howden, N. J. K.; Burt, T. P.

2012-10-01

SummaryThis paper analyses the world's longest fluvial record of water hardness and calcium (Ca) concentration. We used records of permanent and temporary hardness and river flow for the UK's River Thames (catchment area 9998 km2) to estimate annual Ca flux from the river since 1883. The Thames catchment has a mix of agricultural and urban land use; it is dominated by mineral soils with groundwater contributing around 60% of river flow. Since the late 1800s, the catchment has undergone widespread urbanisation and climate warming, but has also been subjected to large-scale land-use change, especially during World War II and agricultural intensification in the 1960s. Here, we use a range of time series methods to explore the relative importance of these drivers in determining catchment-scale biogeochemical response. Ca concentrations in the Thames rose to a peak in the late 1980s (106 mg Ca/l). The flux of Ca peaked in 1916 at 385 ktonnes Ca/yr; the minimum was in 1888 at 34 ktonnes Ca/yr. For both the annual average Ca concentration and the annual flux of Ca, there were significant increases with time; a significant positive memory effect relative to the previous year; and significant correlation with annual water yield. No significant correlation was found with either temperature or land use, but sulphate deposition was found to be significant. It was also possible, for a shorter time series, to show a significant relationship with inorganic nitrogen inputs into the catchment. We suggest that ionic inputs did not acidify the mineral soils of the catchment but did cause the leaching of metals, so we conclude that the decline in river Ca concentrations is caused by the decline in both S and N inputs.

Changes in wind speed and extremes in Beijing during 1960-2008 based on homogenized observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Yan, Zhongwei; Tu, Kai; Liu, Weidong; Wang, Yingchun

2011-03-01

Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960-2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.26, -0.39, -0.30, -0.12 and -0.22 m s-1 (10 yr)-1, respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes (days) also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang (CY), a station within the central business district (CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun (MY). The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 during 1960-2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992-2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Pathogens, pests, and economics: drivers of honey bee colony declines and losses.

PubMed

Smith, Kristine M; Loh, Elizabeth H; Rostal, Melinda K; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos M; Mendiola, Luciana; Daszak, Peter

2013-12-01

The Western honey bee (Apis mellifera) is responsible for ecosystem services (pollination) worth US$215 billion annually worldwide and the number of managed colonies has increased 45% since 1961. However, in Europe and the U.S., two distinct phenomena; long-term declines in colony numbers and increasing annual colony losses, have led to significant interest in their causes and environmental implications. The most important drivers of a long-term decline in colony numbers appear to be socioeconomic and political pressure on honey production. In contrast, annual colony losses seem to be driven mainly by the spread of introduced pathogens and pests, and management problems due to a long-term intensification of production and the transition from large numbers of small apiaries to fewer, larger operations. We conclude that, while other causal hypotheses have received substantial interest, the role of pests, pathogens, and management issues requires increased attention.

Trends in incidence, survival and mortality of childhood and adolescent cancer in Austria, 1994-2011.

PubMed

Karim-Kos, Henrike E; Hackl, Monika; Mann, Georg; Urban, Christian; Woehrer, Adelheid; Slavc, Irene; Ladenstein, Ruth

2016-06-01

This is the first study on trends in cancer incidence, survival and mortality for children and adolescents in Austria. The aim was to assess to what extent progress against childhood and adolescent cancer has been made in Austria since the 1990s and to complement the childhood and adolescent cancer trends for Central Europe. All malignant neoplasms and non-malignant tumours of the Central Nervous System (CNS) in patients aged less than 20 years and diagnosed between 1994 and 2011 (N=5425) were derived from the Austrian National Cancer Registry (ANCR). Incidence and mortality trends were evaluated by the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Observed survival rates were calculated based on follow-up until December 31st 2013. Childhood cancer remained stable with 182 cases per million in 2011, but rose among girls by 1.4% (95% CI: .1, 3.6) annually due to an increase of non-malignant CNS tumours and Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Adolescent cancer rose by 1.5% (95% CI: .4, 2.6) annually, from 182 cases per million in 1994-269 in 2011, especially leukaemia, CNS tumours (including non-malignant types) and epithelial tumours. Five-year survival improved by 5-7% reaching 86% for both groups (p<.05). Mortality declined by -2.4% (95% CI: -3.7, -1.2) and -2.0% (95% CI: -4.6, .5), respectively, especially for childhood leukaemia. Progress is demonstrated by improved survival and declined mortality most likely related to improved diagnostic techniques, more effective therapeutic regimes, supportive care and a central advisory function of experts in the Austrian paediatric oncology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Declining trend in the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease in the adult population of Finland, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Virta, L J; Saarinen, M M; Kolho, K-L

2017-12-01

The frequency of coeliac disease (CD) has been on the rise over the past decades, especially in Western Europe, but current trends are unclear. To research the recent temporal changes in the incidence of adult, biopsy-verified coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) in Finland, a country with a high frequency of coeliac disease. All coeliac disease and DH cases diagnosed at age 20-79 years during 2005-2014 were retrieved from a nationwide database documenting all applicants for monthly compensation to cover the extra cost of maintaining a gluten-free diet. This benefit is granted on the basis of histology, not socioeconomic status. Temporal trends in the annual incidences were estimated using Poisson regression analyses. The total incidence of coeliac disease decreased from 33/100 000 during the years 2005-2006 to 29/100 000 during 2013-2014. The mean annual incidence of coeliac disease was nearly twice as high among women as among men, 42 vs 22 per 100 000, respectively. For middle- and old-aged women, the average rate of decrease in incidence was 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7) per year and for men 3.0% (1.8-4.1) (P for linear trend <.001, for both). Similarly, the annual incidence of DH declined. For young adults, the rate of change remained low and nonsignificant throughout the period 2005-2014. Although the awareness of coeliac disease has increased during the past decades, the incidence of biopsy-verified diagnoses is not increasing, which suggests that exposure to yet unidentified triggering factors for coeliac disease has plateaued among the Finnish adult population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rapid Recent Warming of Coral Reefs in the Florida Keys.

PubMed

Manzello, Derek P

2015-11-16

Coral reef decline in the Florida Keys has been well-publicized, controversial, and polarizing owing to debate over the causative agent being climate change versus overfishing. The recurrence of mass bleaching in 2014, the sixth event since 1987, prompted a reanalysis of temperature data. The summer and winter of 2014 were the warmest on record. The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975-2014. The average number of days ≥31.5 and 32(o)C per year increased 2670% and 2560%, respectively, from the mid-1990 s to present relative to the previous 20 years. In every year after 1992 and 1994, maximum daily average temperatures exceeded 30.5 and 31°C, respectively. From 1975-1994, temperatures were <31 °C in 61% of years, and in 44% of the years prior to 1992 temperatures were <30.5 °C. The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures. These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.

Simulation of Long-term Yield and Soil Water Consumption in Apple Orchards on the Loess Plateau, China, in Response to Fertilization.

PubMed

Peng, Xingxing; Guo, Zheng; Zhang, Yujiao; Li, Jun

2017-07-14

The Loess Plateau, China, is the world's largest apple-producing region, and over 80% of the orchards are in rainfed (dryland) areas. Desiccation of the deep soil layer under dryland apple orchards is the main stressor of apple production in this region. Fertilization is a factor that causes soil desiccation in dryland apple orchards. Given its applicability and precision validations, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the dynamics of fruit yield and deep soil desiccation in apple orchards under six fertilization treatments. During the 45 years of study, the annual fruit yield under the fertilization treatments initially increased and then decreased in a fluctuating manner, and the average fruit yields were 24.42, 27.27, 28.69, 29.63, 30.49 and 29.43 t/ha in these respective fertilization treatments. As fertilization increased, yield of the apple orchards increased first and then declined,desiccation of the soil layers occurred earlier and extended deeper, and the average annual water consumption, over-consumption and water use efficiency increased as fertilization increased. In terms of apple yields, sustainable soil water use, and economic benefits, the most appropriate fertilization rate for drylands in Luochuan is 360-480 kg/ha N and 180-240 kg/ha P.

Missed opportunities for tetanus postexposure prophylaxis--California, January 2008-March 2014.

PubMed

Yen, Cynthia; Murray, Erin; Zipprich, Jennifer; Winter, Kathleen; Harriman, Kathleen

2015-03-13

Tetanus is an acute and sometimes fatal disease characterized by sudden muscle contractions. The number of tetanus cases reported annually in the United States has declined significantly since the 1930s and 1940s as a result of the introduction of tetanus vaccines. However, sporadic cases continue to occur in persons who are not up-to-date with tetanus toxoid-containing vaccinations (TT) and do not receive appropriate postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). To assess the extent of these cases, the California Department of Public Health reviewed all tetanus cases reported during January 2008-March 2014. A total of 21 tetanus patients were reported; five (24%) died. An average of three cases were reported each year during 2008-2013; the average annual incidence among patients aged ≥65 years (0.23 cases per 1 million population) was twice that among patients aged 21-64 years (0.10 cases per 1 million population). Of 16 patients with an acute injury before illness and diagnosis, nine (56%) sought medical care, and two (22%) of the nine received appropriate PEP. Although tetanus is rare, it is a life-threatening disease that is preventable. Health care providers should ensure that their patients are up-to-date with TT vaccination and provide appropriate postexposure prophylaxis for patients with wounds.

Vegetation dynamics and rainfall sensitivity of the Amazon.

PubMed

Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I; Tucker, Compton J; Hall, Forrest G; Myneni, Ranga B; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J

2014-11-11

We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Niño southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million km(2)) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million km(2)). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Niño events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million km(2) compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

Vegetation Dynamics and Rainfall Sensitivity of the Amazon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Tucker, Compton J.; Hall, Forrest G.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J.

2014-01-01

We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Nino southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million sq km) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million sq km). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Nino events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million sq km compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

[Associations between mortality and alcohol consumption in Lithuanian population].

PubMed

Grabauskas, Vilius; Prochorskas, Remigijus; Veryga, Aurelijus

2009-01-01

The objective of the study was to assess alcohol-related mortality that potentially might explain an increasing trend in overall mortality of Lithuanian population, which started after 2000 and peaked in 2005. An empiric analysis of national mortality and other statistical data as well as their international comparisons. An analysis of available data clearly indicates that a decline in mortality in 1998-2000, i.e. during the beginning of the National Programme of Health, as well as its increase in 2001 and 2005 were predominantly determined by cause-specific deaths of two groups: deaths from diseases of the circulatory system (mainly ischemic heart disease) and alcohol consumption-related deaths (liver cirrhosis, accidental poisoning by alcohol, accidents, etc.). A certain proportion of deaths, which were caused by alcohol, were wrongly assigned to the deaths from diseases of the circulatory system due to uncertainties in filling-in death certificates. By approximate estimates, at least one-quarter of increase in all-cause mortality between 2002-2004 and 2005-2007 could be explained by an increase in alcohol consumption, accounting for additional 880 deaths on average per year. In the year 2007, 12.6% (n=5760) of all deaths were somehow related to alcohol consumption. A comparative analysis demonstrated that mortality and alcohol consumption trends were going in parallel over the last decade. The systemic decline in mortality observed in Lithuania from 1995 stopped in 2000 after a decrease in alcohol taxes, which resulted in an increase in alcohol accessibility and consumption. An average annual increase in alcohol consumption over the period of 2001-2004 was 7%; it increased up to 17% in 2005 and accounted for 12% annual increase on average within 2005-2007. Negative trends in alcohol-related morbidity and mortality in Lithuanian population most notably registered in 2001 and 2005 were largely influenced by uncontrollable increase in alcohol consumption over the last decade. Economic and commercial arguments in decision-making process that neglected health interest of Lithuanian population (decrease of alcohol taxes in 1999, other factors increasing alcohol accessibility and consumption) were those counteracting the implementation of balanced health policy in the country.

Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

2015-04-01

Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest meteorological perspective risk. Finally, after determining the degree of threats, meteorological vulnerability zoning map was produced by kriging interpolation method and utilizing geographic information systems (GIS). It showed most studied areas were in complete level of investigation. Keywords: Vulnerability, Climate threats, GIS, Zoning, Precipitation, Crisis management.

Rocky mountain spotted fever hospitalizations among American Indians.

PubMed

Demma, Linda J; Holman, Robert C; Mikosz, Christina A; Curns, Aaron T; Swerdlow, David L; Paisano, Edna L; Cheek, James E

2006-09-01

To describe the epidemiology of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) among American Indians/Alaska Natives (AI/ANs), we conducted a retrospective analysis of hospitalization records with an RMSF diagnosis using Indian Health Service (IHS) hospital discharge data for calendar years 1980-2003. A total of 261 RMSF hospitalizations were reported among AIs, for an average annual hospitalization rate of 1.21 per 100,000 persons; two deaths were reported (0.8%). Most hospitalizations (88.5%) occurred in the Southern Plains region, where the rate was 4.23 per 100,000 persons. Children 1-4 years of age had the highest age-specific hospitalization rate of 2.50 per 100,000 persons. The overall annual RMSF hospitalization rate declined during the study period. Understanding the epidemiology of RMSF among AI/ANs and educating IHS/tribal physicians on the diagnosis of tick-borne diseases remain important for the prompt treatment of RMSF and the reduction of the disease occurrence among AI/ANs, particularly in high-risk areas.

Lung function decline rates according to GOLD group in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

PubMed Central

Kim, Joohae; Yoon, Ho Il; Oh, Yeon-Mok; Lim, Seong Yong; Lee, Ji-Hyun; Kim, Tae-Hyung; Lee, Sang Yeub; Lee, Jin Hwa; Lee, Sang-Do; Lee, Chang-Hoon

2015-01-01

Background Since the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) groups A–D were introduced, the lung function changes according to group have been evaluated rarely. Objective We investigated the rate of decline in annual lung function in patients categorized according to the 2014 GOLD guidelines. Methods Patients with COPD included in the Korean Obstructive Lung Disease (KOLD) prospective study, who underwent yearly postbronchodilator spirometry at least three times, were included. The main outcome was the annual decline in postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), which was analyzed by random-slope and random-intercept mixed linear regression. Results A total 175 participants were included. No significant postbronchodilator FEV1 decline was observed between the groups (−34.4±7.9 [group A]; −26.2±9.4 [group B]; −22.7±16.0 [group C]; and −24.0±8.7 mL/year [group D]) (P=0.79). The group with less symptoms (−32.3±7.2 vs −25.0±6.5 mL/year) (P=0.44) and the low risk group (−31.0±6.1 vs −23.6±7.7 mL/year) (P=0.44) at baseline showed a more rapid decline in the postbronchodilator FEV1, but the trends were not statistically significant. However, GOLD stages classified by FEV1 were significantly related to the annual lung function decline. Conclusion There was no significant difference in lung function decline rates according to the GOLD groups. Prior classification using postbronchodilator FEV1 predicts decline in lung function better than does the new classification. PMID:26379432

Change in Sexual Functioning Over the Menopause Transition: Results from the Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation (SWAN)

PubMed Central

Avis, Nancy E.; Colvin, Alicia; Karlamangla, Arun S.; Crawford, Sybil; Hess, Rachel; Waetjen, L. Elaine; Brooks, Maria; Tepper, Ping G.; Greendale, Gail A.

2016-01-01

Objective To identify whether there is a decline in sexual functioning related to the menopause transition or to hysterectomy. Methods In a cohort of 1,390 women aged 42–52, with intact uterus and at least one ovary, not using hormone therapy, and pre- or early perimenopausal at baseline, we fit piecewise linear growth curves to 5,798 repeated measurements (7 visits spanning 14.5 years) of a sexual functioning score (range, 5–25) as a function of time relative to date of final menstrual period (FMP) or hysterectomy. Results Mean sexual functioning at baseline in women with a dateable FMP was 18.0 (standard deviation, 3.4). There was no change in sexual function until 20 months before the FMP. From 20 months before until one year after the FMP, sexual function decreased by 0.35 annually (95% CI:−0.44, −0.26) and continued to decline more than one year after the FMP, but at a slower rate (−0.13 annually, 95% CI:−0.17, −0.10). The decline was smaller in African-Americans and larger in Japanese compared to whites. Vaginal dryness, lubricant use, depressive symptoms, or anxiety did not explain decline in sexual function. Women who had a hysterectomy prior to the FMP did not show decline in sexual function prior to hysterectomy, but scores declined afterwards (0.21 annually, 95% CI:−0.28, −0.14). Conclusions Decline in sexual function became apparent 20 months prior to FMP and slowed one year after FMP through 5 years afterwards. A decline in sexual function was observed immediately after hysterectomy and persisted for the 5 years of observation. PMID:27801705

Ground-water hydrology of the Lower Milliken-Sarco-Tulucay Creeks area, Napa County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Michael J.

1977-01-01

Recharge within the area is generally inadequate to marginal under 1975 demand. There is insufficient recharge in the Milliken and Sarco Creeks area to support 1975 pumpage. Long-term changes in the seasonal peak water levels indicate an average decline of 1.5 feet per year (0.5 meter per year). By 1975 annual pumpage was not exceeding recharge in the Tulucay Creek area. Although a downward trend in water levels was noted in the western part of this basin in the late 1940's, the pumping distribution and its stress on the ground-water system have since changed, and no overall downward trend was evident in the Tulucay Creek area in 1975.

Does working at your marriage help? Couple relationship self-regulation and satisfaction in the first 4 years of marriage.

PubMed

Halford, W Kim; Lizzio, Alf; Wilson, Keithia L; Occhipinti, Stefano

2007-06-01

Relationship self-regulation (SR) is how much partners work at their couple relationship, and it has been hypothesized to predict relationship satisfaction. To test this hypothesis, the authors assessed 191 newlywed couples on SR and relationship satisfaction annually for 5 years. They conducted a multilevel analysis predicting satisfaction with SR as a time-varying covariate. The intercept and slope of relationship satisfaction varied across participants, and the slope showed an average slight decline for both men and women. There was mixed support for the primary hypothesis. SR cross-sectionally and prospectively predicted the intercept, but it did not predict the slope, of relationship satisfaction.

Designing an effective statewide tobacco control program--Massachusetts.

PubMed

Connolly, G; Robbins, H

1998-12-15

Smoking-related illnesses kill > 10,000 Massachusetts residents each year and cost hundreds of millions of dollars of public and private expenditures for health care. To combat this public health problem, in 1992 Massachusetts voters approved a referendum question calling for an increased excise tax on tobacco products, with the revenue supporting a Health Protection Fund. Approximately 40% of the fund is used to finance the Massachusetts Tobacco Control Program (MTCP), administered by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. During the first 3 fiscal years (FY), the MTCP budget has averaged just over $40 million annually, declining during that period from approximately $43 million in FY 1995 to < $37 million in FY 1997.

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in California's Medicaid program, 1981-84

PubMed Central

Andrews, Roxanne M.; Keyes, Margaret A.; Pine, Penelope L.

1988-01-01

In this article, Medicaid enrollment, use, and expenditures for persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in California from 1981-84 are examined. The data are from Tape-to-Tape, a person-level Medicaid enrollment and claims data base. It was found that expenditures per month of enrollment decreased as length of enrollment during the year increased. Average annual expenditures increased from 1982 to 1983 and then decreased in 1984. This decrease was most pronounced in hospital services with no indication of a substitution of ambulatory services. This decline is primarily a result of a decrease in hospital reimbursement per day as opposed to changes in use, because discharge rates decreased and length of stay increased. PMID:10312824

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

Fall in genital warts diagnoses in the general and indigenous Australian population following implementation of a national human papillomavirus vaccination program: analysis of routinely collected national hospital data.

PubMed

Smith, Megan A; Liu, Bette; McIntyre, Peter; Menzies, Robert; Dey, Aditi; Canfell, Karen

2015-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination targeting females aged 12-13 years commenced in Australia in 2007, with catch-up vaccination of females aged 13-26 years continuing to 2009. Whole-population analyses, including effects on the Indigenous population, have not previously been reported. All hospital admissions between 1999-2011 involving a diagnosis of genital warts were obtained from a comprehensive national database. We compared the age-specific rates before to those after implementation of the vaccination program, according to sex and other characteristics. Admission rates decreased from mid-2007 in females aged 12-17 years (annual decline, 44.1% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 35.4%-51.6%]) and from mid-2008 in females and males aged 18-26 years (annual declines, 31.8% [95% CI, 28.4%-35.2%] and 14.0% [95% CI, 5.1%-22.1%], respectively). The overall reductions from 2006-2007 to 2010-2011 were 89.9% (95% CI, 84.4%-93.4%) for females aged 12-17 years, 72.7% (95% CI, 67.0%-77.5%) for females aged 18-26 years, and 38.3% (95% CI, 27.7%-47.2%) for males aged 18-26 years. Compared with the average annual number before program implementation, about 1000 fewer hospital admissions involved a warts diagnosis during 2010-2011. Reductions after program implementation were similar for Indigenous (86.7% [95% CI, 76.0-92.7]) and non-Indigenous (76.1% [95% CI, 71.6%-79.9%]) females aged 15-24 years (P(heterogeneity) = .08). National population-based hospital data confirm previous clinic-based reports of a marked decline in genital warts diagnoses among young people in Australia after program implementation, including indirect benefits to males. The impact of HPV vaccination appears to be similar in young Indigenous and non-Indigenous females. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Water resources of Spink County, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, L.J.; Howells, L.W.

1996-01-01

Spink County, an agricultural area of about 1,505 square miles, is in the flat to gently rolling James River lowland of east-central South Dakota. The water resources are characterized by the highly variable flows of the James River and its tributaries and by aquifers both in glacial deposits of sand and gravel, and in sandstone in the bedrock. Glacial aquifers underlie about half of the county, and bedrock aquifers underlie most of the county. The James River is an intermittent prairie stream that drains nearly 8,900 square miles north of Spink County and has an average annual discharge of about 124 cubic feet per second where it enters the county. The discharge is augmented by the flow of Snake and Turtle Creeks, each of which has an average annual flow of about 25 to 30 cubic feet per second. Streamflow is unreliable as a water supply because precipitation, which averages 18.5 inches annually, is erratic both in volume and in distribution, and because the average annual potential evapotranspiration rate is 43 inches. The flow of tributaries generally ceases by summer, and zero flows are common in the James River in fall and winter. Aquifers in glacial drift deposits store nearly 3.3 million acre-feet of fresh to slightly saline water at depths of from near land surface to more than 500 feet below land surface beneath an area of about 760 square miles. Yields of properly developed wells in the more productive aquifers exceed 1,000 gallons per minute in some areas. Withdrawals from the aquifers, mostly for irrigation, totaled about 15,000 acre-feet of water in 1990. Water levels in observation wells generally have declined less than 15 feet over several decades of increasing pumpage for irrigation, but locally have declined nearly 30 feet. Water levels generally rose during the wet period of 1983-86. In Spink County, bedrock aquifers store more than 40 million acre-feet of slightly to moderately saline water at depths of from 80 to about 1,300 feet below land surface. Yields of properly developed wells range from 2 to 600 gallons per minute. The artesian head of the heavily used Dakota aquifer has declined about 350 feet in the approximately 100 years since the first artesian wells were drilled in the county, but water levels have stabilized locally as a result of decreases in the discharge of water from the wells. Initial flows of from 4 gallons per minute to as much as 30 gallons per minute of very hard water can be obtained in the southwestern part of the county, where drillers report artesian heads of nearly 100 feet above land surface. The quality of water from aquifers in glacial drift varies greatly, even within an aquifer. Concentrations of dissolved solids in samples ranged from 151 to 9,610 milligrams per liter, and hardness ranged from 84 to 3,700 milligrams per liter. Median concentrations of dissolved solids, sulfate, iron, and manganese in some glacial aquifers are near or exceed Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels (SMCL's) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Some of the water from aquifers in glacial drift is suitable for irrigation use. Water samples from aquifers in the bedrock contained concentrations of dissolved solids that ranged from 1,410 to 2,670 milligrams per liter (sum of constituents) and hardness that ranged from 10 to 1,400 milligrams per liter; these concentrations generally are largest for aquifers below the Dakota aquifer. Median concentrations of dissolved solids, sulfate, iron, and manganese in Dakota wells either are near or exceed EPA SMCL's. Dissolved solids, sodium, and boron concentrations in water from bedrock aquifers commonly are too large for the water to be suitable for irrigation use.

50 CFR 217.172 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... dolphin (Grampus griseus)—100 (an average of 20 annually). (vi) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—100 (an... right whale (Eubalaena glacialis)—120 (an average of 24 annually). (ii) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—145 (an average of 29 annually). (iii) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—390 (an average of 78...

50 CFR 217.172 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... dolphin (Grampus griseus)—100 (an average of 20 annually). (vi) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—100 (an... right whale (Eubalaena glacialis)—120 (an average of 24 annually). (ii) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—145 (an average of 29 annually). (iii) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—390 (an average of 78...

Survival of Columbian white-tailed deer in western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ricca, Mark A.; Anthony, Robert G.; Jackson, Dewaine H.; Wolfe, Scott A.

2002-01-01

Columbian white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus leucurus; CWTD) are an endangered subspecies on which little demographic information exists. We determined survival rates and causes of mortality for 64 radiocol- lared adults from 1996 to 1998, and for 63 radiocollared neonatal fawns during the summer and fall months of 1996-2001 in Douglas County, Oregon, USA. Annual adult survival rates averaged 0.74 over 3 years, and most mor- tality (73%) occurred between fall and winter. Seasonal survival was lowest (0.75) for the fall-winter 1997-1998, and was 20.90 during all spring-summer periods. Annual and seasonal survival rates did not differ by gender. Average annual survival was 0.77 for deer in wildland areas compared with 0.66 for deer in suburban areas, but these dif- ferences were not consistent between years and seasons. Survival over the entire 3-year study was low (0.38). Eight deer died from a combination of emaciation and disease, and almost all (92%) necropsied deer were in poor body condition. Fawn survival to 7 months was low (0.14, 95% CI = 0.02-0.26) and declined most rapidly during the first 1.5 months of life. Predation (n = 21) and abandonment (n = 6) were the most frequent known causes of death for fawns. Our results suggest that CWTD may have responded to density-dependent factors during this short-term study, although the effects of other environmental or intrinsic factors cannot be ignored. Fawn survival may be insufficient to produce enough recruits for population growth and eventual range expansion.

Impact of a musculoskeletal disability management program on medical costs and productivity in a large manufacturing company.

PubMed

Bunn, William B; Baver, Robin S; Ehni, Thomas K; Stowers, Allan D; Taylor, David D; Holloway, Anita M; Duong, Duyen; Pikelny, Dan B; Sotolongo, David

2006-12-01

To evaluate a program to reduce musculoskeletal disability-related absenteeism at a North American manufacturing facility. Staged communication and educational interventions targeting physicians to improve care of musculoskeletal conditions and reduce related absenteeism. The program was implemented in three 1-year stages. The first stage required physicians to complete assessment forms for employees claiming disability because of musculoskeletal injuries. The second stage added physician education programs focusing on current clinical guidelines. The third stage incorporated local physician education about the facility's onsite physical therapy program. Annual number of work-related injuries, days lost per injury and per scheduled full-time-equivalent (FTE) employee, light-duty days per injury, average annual indemnity per FTE, indemnity per injury, medical costs per FTE, and medical costs per injury were examined to determine the program's effectiveness. Overall productivity improved by a mean of 12.5 days per injured employee. Mean days lost per work-related injury decreased from 35.1 to 27.6. Number of light-duty days increased from 6.1 to 11.1 per work-related injury. Mean annual indemnity per work-related injury decreased from $9327 to $4493; mean annual medical costs per work-related injury decreased from $4848 to $2679. The annual incidence of musculoskeletal injuries declined by up to 50%. This intervention was associated with reduced musculoskeletal disability-related absenteeism and increased productivity. The program reduced medical costs per work-related injury and improved the company's communications and relationship with local physicians.

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

PubMed

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

Temporal and spatial variation of potassium balance in agricultural land at national and regional levels in China

PubMed Central

Liu, Yingxia; Ma, Jinchuan; Ding, Wencheng; He, Wentian; Lei, Qiuliang; Gao, Qiang

2017-01-01

Linking potassium (K) balance to soil fertility creates a valuable indicator for sustainability assessment in agricultural land-use systems. It is crucial for the efficient use of K resources, food security and resource sustainability to realize soil K balance status in China. Therefore, temporal and spatial changes of K balance for farmland in China from 1980 to 2015 were analyzed at national and regional levels using statistical data and related parameters. At the national scale, K input increased from 6.78 Mt K2O in 1980 to 23.44 Mt K2O in 2015 with an average annual increment of 0.48 Mt K2O, and output changed from 8.10 Mt in 1980 to 21.31 Mt in 2015 with an average annual increment of 0.38 Mt K2O as well. On average, K balance was -24.17, -5.92, 21.31 and 19.50 kg K2O ha-1 in 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s, respectively. Moreover, the average balance of six regions was considerably different which were -21.37, 1.25, 13.70, -22.79, 99.22 and 7.18 kg K2O ha-1 from 1980 to 2015. The potassium use efficiency (KUE) decreased with time which were 127.09, 104.35, 87.69 and 89.69% in 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s, respectively, and the decline of slope could also reflect the variation tendency of KUE. Great variation of K balance across different regions demonstrated that fertilizer application and management practices need to be adjusted to local conditions. PMID:28873448

Modeled Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease on White-Tailed Deer in a Semi-Arid Environment.

PubMed

Foley, Aaron M; Hewitt, David G; DeYoung, Charles A; DeYoung, Randy W; Schnupp, Matthew J

2016-01-01

White-tailed deer are a culturally and economically important game species in North America, especially in South Texas. The recent discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive deer facilities in Texas has increased concern about the potential emergence of CWD in free-ranging deer. The concern is exacerbated because much of the South Texas region is a semi-arid environment with variable rainfall, where precipitation is strongly correlated with fawn recruitment. Further, the marginally productive rangelands, in combination with erratic fawn recruitment, results in populations that are frequently density-independent, and thus sensitive to additive mortality. It is unknown how a deer population in semi-arid regions would respond to the presence of CWD. We used long-term empirical datasets from a lightly harvested (2% annual harvest) population in conjunction with 3 prevalence growth rates from CWD afflicted areas (0.26%, 0.83%, and 2.3% increases per year) via a multi-stage partially deterministic model to simulate a deer population for 25 years under four scenarios: 1) without CWD and without harvest, 2) with CWD and without harvest, 3) with CWD and male harvest only, and 4) with CWD and harvest of both sexes. The modeled populations without CWD and without harvest averaged a 1.43% annual increase over 25 years; incorporation of 2% annual harvest of both sexes resulted in a stable population. The model with slowest CWD prevalence rate growth (0.26% annually) without harvest resulted in stable populations but the addition of 1% harvest resulted in population declines. Further, the male age structure in CWD models became skewed to younger age classes. We incorporated fawn:doe ratios from three CWD afflicted areas in Wisconsin and Wyoming into the model with 0.26% annual increase in prevalence and populations did not begin to decline until ~10%, ~16%, and ~26% of deer were harvested annually. Deer populations in variable environments rely on high adult survivorship to buffer the low and erratic fawn recruitment rates. The increase in additive mortality rates for adults via CWD negatively impacted simulated population trends to the extent that hunter opportunity would be greatly reduced. Our results improve understanding of the potential influences of CWD on deer populations in semi-arid environments with implications for deer managers, disease ecologists, and policy makers.

Modeled Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease on White-Tailed Deer in a Semi-Arid Environment

PubMed Central

Hewitt, David G.; DeYoung, Charles A.; DeYoung, Randy W.; Schnupp, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

White-tailed deer are a culturally and economically important game species in North America, especially in South Texas. The recent discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive deer facilities in Texas has increased concern about the potential emergence of CWD in free-ranging deer. The concern is exacerbated because much of the South Texas region is a semi-arid environment with variable rainfall, where precipitation is strongly correlated with fawn recruitment. Further, the marginally productive rangelands, in combination with erratic fawn recruitment, results in populations that are frequently density-independent, and thus sensitive to additive mortality. It is unknown how a deer population in semi-arid regions would respond to the presence of CWD. We used long-term empirical datasets from a lightly harvested (2% annual harvest) population in conjunction with 3 prevalence growth rates from CWD afflicted areas (0.26%, 0.83%, and 2.3% increases per year) via a multi-stage partially deterministic model to simulate a deer population for 25 years under four scenarios: 1) without CWD and without harvest, 2) with CWD and without harvest, 3) with CWD and male harvest only, and 4) with CWD and harvest of both sexes. The modeled populations without CWD and without harvest averaged a 1.43% annual increase over 25 years; incorporation of 2% annual harvest of both sexes resulted in a stable population. The model with slowest CWD prevalence rate growth (0.26% annually) without harvest resulted in stable populations but the addition of 1% harvest resulted in population declines. Further, the male age structure in CWD models became skewed to younger age classes. We incorporated fawn:doe ratios from three CWD afflicted areas in Wisconsin and Wyoming into the model with 0.26% annual increase in prevalence and populations did not begin to decline until ~10%, ~16%, and ~26% of deer were harvested annually. Deer populations in variable environments rely on high adult survivorship to buffer the low and erratic fawn recruitment rates. The increase in additive mortality rates for adults via CWD negatively impacted simulated population trends to the extent that hunter opportunity would be greatly reduced. Our results improve understanding of the potential influences of CWD on deer populations in semi-arid environments with implications for deer managers, disease ecologists, and policy makers. PMID:27711208

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs.

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

PubMed Central

Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs. PMID:27783668

Changes in water clarity in response to river discharges on the Great Barrier Reef continental shelf: 2002-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabricius, K. E.; Logan, M.; Weeks, S. J.; Lewis, S. E.; Brodie, J.

2016-05-01

Water clarity is a key factor for the health of marine ecosystems. The Australian Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is located on a continental shelf, with >35 major seasonal rivers discharging into this 344,000 km2 tropical to subtropical ecosystem. This work investigates how river discharges affect water clarity in different zones along and across the GBR. For each day over 11 years (2002-2013) we calculated 'photic depth' as a proxy measure of water clarity (calibrated to be equivalent to Secchi depth), for each 1 km2 pixel from MODIS-Aqua remote sensing data. Long-term and seasonal changes in photic depth were related to the daily discharge volumes of the nearest rivers, after statistically removing the effects of waves and tides on photic depth. The relationships between photic depths and rivers differed across and along the GBR. They typically declined from the coastal to offshore zones, and were strongest in proximity to rivers in agriculturally modified catchments. In most southern inner zones, photic depth declined consistently throughout the 11-year observation period; such long-term trend was not observed offshore nor in the northern regions. Averaged across the GBR, photic depths declined to 47% of local maximum values soon after the onset of river floods, and recovery to 95% of maximum values took on average 6 months (range: 150-260 days). The river effects were strongest at latitude 14.5°-19.0°S, where river loads are high and the continental shelf is narrow. Here, even offshore zones showed a >40% seasonal decline in photic depth, and 17-24% reductions in annual mean photic depth in years with large river nutrients and sediment loads. Our methodology is based on freely available data and tools and may be applied to other shelf systems, providing valuable insights in support of ecosystem management.

5 CFR 630.212 - Use of annual leave to establish initial eligibility for retirement or continuation of health...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... decline relocation (including transfer of function). (b)(1) Annual leave that may be used for the purposes... transfer of function) and annual leave earned by an employee while in a paid leave status after the effective date of the reduction in force or relocation (including transfer of function). (2) Annual leave...

Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, Philip J.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Kummu, M.

2013-01-01

Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

High blood pressure and cognitive decline in mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Goldstein, Felicia C; Levey, Allan I; Steenland, N Kyle

2013-01-01

To determine whether high blood pressure (BP) levels are associated with faster decline in specific cognitive domains. Prospective longitudinal cohort. Uniform Data Set of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer's Disease Centers. One thousand three hundred eighty-five participants with a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and measured BP values at baseline and two annual follow-up visits. Neuropsychological test scores and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR Sum) score. Participants with MCI with two or three annual occasions of high BP values (systolic BP ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg) had significantly faster decline on neuropsychological measures of visuomotor sequencing, set shifting, and naming than those who were normotensive on all three occasions. High systolic BP values were associated as well with faster decline on the CDR Sum score. Hypertension is associated with faster cognitive decline in persons at risk for dementia. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

High Blood Pressure and Cognitive Decline in Mild Cognitive Impairment

PubMed Central

Goldstein, Felicia C.; Levey, Allan I.; Steenland, N. Kyle

2013-01-01

Objectives To determine whether high blood pressure (BP) levels are associated with faster decline in specific cognitive domains. Design Prospective longitudinal cohort. Setting Uniform Data Set of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging Alzheimer's Disease Centers. Participants One thousand three hundred eighty-five participants with a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and measured BP values at baseline and two annual follow-up visits. Measurements Neuropsychological test scores and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR Sum) score. Results Participants with MCI with two or three annual occasions of high BP values (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg) had significantly faster decline on neuropsychological measures of visuomotor sequencing, set shifting, and naming than those who were normotensive on all three occasions. High systolic BP values were associated as well with faster decline on the CDR Sum score. Conclusion Hypertension is associated with faster cognitive decline in persons at risk for dementia. PMID:23301925

Change in motor function and adverse health outcomes in older African-Americans.

PubMed

Buchman, Aron S; Wilson, Robert S; Leurgans, Sue E; Bennett, David A; Barnes, Lisa L

2015-10-01

We tested whether declining motor function accelerates with age in older African-Americans. Eleven motor performances were assessed annually in 513 older African-Americans. During follow-up of 5 years, linear mixed-effect models showed that motor function declined by about 0.03 units/year (Estimate, -0.026, p<0.001); about 4% more rapidly for each additional year of age at baseline. A proportional hazard model showed that both baseline motor function level and its rate of change were independent predictors of death and incident disability (all p's<0.001). These models showed that the additional annual amount of motor decline in 85 year old persons at baseline versus 65 year old persons was associated with a 1.5-fold higher rate of death and a 3-fold higher rate of developing Katz disability. The rate of declining motor function accelerates with increasing age and its rate of decline predicts adverse health outcomes in older African-Americans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Change in Motor Function and Adverse Health Outcomes in Older African Americas

PubMed Central

Buchman, Aron S.; Wilson, Robert S.; Leurgans, Sue E.; Bennett, David A.; Barnes, Lisa L.

2015-01-01

Objective We tested whether declining motor function accelerates with age in older African Americans. Methods Eleven motor performances were assessed annually in 513 older African Americans. Results During follow-up of 5 years, linear mixed-effect models showed that motor function declined by about 0.03 units/yr (Estimate, −0.026, p<0.001); about 4% more rapidly for each additional year of age at baseline. A proportional hazard model showed that both baseline motor function level and its rate of change were independent predictors of death and incident disability (all p’s <0.001). These models showed that the additional annual amount of motor decline in 85 year old persons at baseline versus 65 year old persons was associated with a 1.5-fold higher rate of death and a 3-fold higher rate of developing Katz disability. Conclusions The rate of declining motor function accelerates with increasing age and its rate of decline predicts adverse health outcomes in older African Americans. PMID:26209439

Declining incidence of imported malaria in the Netherlands, 2000-2007

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background To describe the epidemiology and trends of imported malaria in the Netherlands from 2000 through 2007. Methods Based on national surveillance data regarding all reported infections of imported malaria, diagnosed 2000 through 2007, incidence and trends of imported malaria in the Netherlands were estimated. Travellers statistics were used to estimate incidence, and data on malaria chemoprophylaxis prescriptions were used to estimate the number of unprotected travellers. Results Importation of malaria to the Netherlands is declining even as more travellers visit malaria-endemic countries. On average, 82% were acquired in sub-Saharan Africa, and 75% were caused by Plasmodium falciparum. The overall incidence in imported falciparum malaria fell from 21.5 to 6.6/10,000 of unprotected travellers. The percentage of unprotected travellers rose from 47% to 52% of all travellers. The incidence of imported falciparum infections is greatest from Middle and West Africa, and decreased from 121.3 to 36.5/10,000 travellers. The import of malaria from this region by immigrants visiting friends and relatives (VFR) decreased from 138 infections in 2000, to 69 infections in 2007. Conclusion The annual number of imported malaria shows a continuing declining trend, even with an increasing number of travellers visiting malaria endemic countries. VFR import less malaria than previously, and contribute largely to the declining incidence seen. The decline is not readily explained by increased use of chemoprophylaxis and may reflect a reduced risk of infection due to decreasing local malaria transmission as observed in some malaria endemic areas. Nevertheless, the increasing number of unprotected travellers remains worrisome. PMID:21029424

Age-related practice effects across longitudinal neuropsychological assessments in older people with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Granholm, Eric; Link, Peter; Fish, Scott; Kraemer, Helena; Jeste, Dilip

2010-09-01

The relationship between aging and practice effects on longitudinal neuropsychological assessments was investigated in middle-aged and older people with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Older people with schizophrenia (n = 107; M age = 56.1) and age-comparable nonpsychiatric controls (n = 107; M age = 57.7) were scheduled to receive annual assessments on a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests for an average of 2.5 years (range 11 months to 4 years). Mixed-model analyses were used to separately examine the effects of practice and age on test performance. Number of prior assessments (practice) was associated with significant performance improvement across assessments, whereas older age was associated with significant decline in performance. The groups did not differ significantly in extent of age-related cognitive decline, but a three-way interaction among group, age, and practice was found, such that greater age-related decline in practice effects were found for older people with schizophrenia relative to nonpsychiatric participants. This study did not find any evidence of neurodegenerative age-related decline in neuropsychological abilities in middle-aged and older people with schizophrenia, but older age was associated with diminished ability to benefit from repeated exposure to cognitive tasks in people with schizophrenia. Cognitive impairment in schizophrenia may combine with cognitive decline associated with normal aging to reduce practice effects in older patients. These findings have important implications for the design of studies examining the longitudinal trajectory of cognitive functioning across the life span of people with schizophrenia, as well as clinical trials that attempt to demonstrate cognitive enhancement in these individuals. Copyright 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Satellite Observed Widespread Decline in Mongolian Grasslands Largely Due to Overgrazing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilker, Thomas; Natsagdorj, Enkhjargal; Waring, Richard H.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie

2014-01-01

The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70 percent of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or overgrazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to MODIS observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter-annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12 percent on average) in MODIS observed NDVI across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40 percent below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80 percent of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30 percent of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50 percent in areas with denser vegetation cover (p0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r20.10, p0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies.

Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Rayfield, Bronwyn; Sherba, Jason; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Selmants, Paul; Loveland, Thomas R.

2018-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time horizons. In this study we use a variety of synoptic-scale remote sensing data to estimate the effect of LULC changes associated with urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, forest harvest, and wildfire on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems (forest, grasslands, shrublands, and agriculture) in the conterminous United States (i.e. excluding Alaska and Hawaii) between 1973 and 2010. We estimate large net declines in the area of agriculture and forest, along with relatively small increases in grasslands and shrublands. The largest net change in any class was an estimated gain of 114 865 km2 of developed lands, an average rate of 3282 km2 yr−1. On average, US ecosystems sequestered carbon at an annual rate of 254 Tg C yr−1. In forest lands, the net sink declined by 35% over the study period, largely a result of land-use legacy, increasing disturbances, and reductions in forest area due to land use conversion. Uncertainty in LULC change data contributed to a ~16% margin of error in the annual carbon sink estimate prior to 1985 (approximately ±40 Tg C yr−1). Improvements in LULC and disturbance mapping starting in the mid-1980s reduced this uncertainty by ~50% after 1985. We conclude that changes in LULC are a critical component to understanding ecosystem carbon dynamics, and continued improvements in detection, quantification, and attribution of change have the potential to significantly reduce current uncertainties.

Effects of Climate and Social Change on Pasture Productivity and Area in the Alay Valley, Kyrgyzstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.; Smithwick, E. A. H.

2017-12-01

The high elevation Alay Valley, located in the central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan, has experienced substantial socio-political and environmental changes in recent decades, resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union and an increase in average annual temperature from 1.8 C to 2.7 C between 1990 and 2014. However, the consequences of these changes on pastureland productivity and area has not been previously assessed, despite the critical cultural and economic importance of pasturelands for sustaining livelihoods in this region. We assessed spatial and temporal patterns of soil moisture, pasture productivity and pasture area in the Alay Valley. Supervised classification was performed on Landsat imagery over the study region to distinguish pastures and agricultural land in order to relate changes in soil moisture to specific land classes. Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) was estimated between May 2015 and June 2017 from Soil Moisture Active Passive L4 RZSM product. Average monthly NDVI for 2016 was calculated to obtain seasonal patterns in productivity of the pasturelands in the region. Results show that annual RZSM trends closely matched those of precipitation, as RZSM peaks during May (the wettest month) and decreases during the dry summer. The NDVI trend is also notable as it peaks very early in June before declining due to limited precipitation and grazing practices. There has been a sharp increase in pasturelands encompassing the bank of the Kyzyl Suu river from 1993 to 2016. Likely due to turmoil from collapse of the USSR, the area of pasturelands decreased slightly from 59.98 to 55.99 km^2 from 1993-1994, corresponding with a decline in livestock count and GDP per capita. The area of pasturelands has since recovered and is hovering around 104.47 - 107.95 km^2 between 2009-2016. Overall results highlight both sensitivity and resilience of high elevation pasture to coupled socio-environmental drivers.

Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Rayfield, Bronwyn; Sherba, Jason; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Selmants, Paul C.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2018-04-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time horizons. In this study we use a variety of synoptic-scale remote sensing data to estimate the effect of LULC changes associated with urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, forest harvest, and wildfire on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems (forest, grasslands, shrublands, and agriculture) in the conterminous United States (i.e. excluding Alaska and Hawaii) between 1973 and 2010. We estimate large net declines in the area of agriculture and forest, along with relatively small increases in grasslands and shrublands. The largest net change in any class was an estimated gain of 114 865 km2 of developed lands, an average rate of 3282 km2 yr‑1. On average, US ecosystems sequestered carbon at an annual rate of 254 Tg C yr‑1. In forest lands, the net sink declined by 35% over the study period, largely a result of land-use legacy, increasing disturbances, and reductions in forest area due to land use conversion. Uncertainty in LULC change data contributed to a ~16% margin of error in the annual carbon sink estimate prior to 1985 (approximately ±40 Tg C yr‑1). Improvements in LULC and disturbance mapping starting in the mid-1980s reduced this uncertainty by ~50% after 1985. We conclude that changes in LULC are a critical component to understanding ecosystem carbon dynamics, and continued improvements in detection, quantification, and attribution of change have the potential to significantly reduce current uncertainties.

2012 Annual Survey of Journalism and Mass Communication Enrollments: Enrollments Decline for Second Year in a Row

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becker, Lee B.; Vlad, Tudor; Simpson, Holly Anne

2013-01-01

Enrollments in journalism and mass communication programs in the United States have declined over the last two years, reversing a pattern of growth that has sustained the field for twenty years. It is a decline at a time of continued growth in enrollments at universities generally. It is a decline at a time when enrollments have been growing in…

Spatio-temporal trend analysis of projected precipitation data over Rwanda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhire, I.; Tesfamichael, S. G.; Ahmed, F.; Minani, E.

2018-01-01

This study applied a number of statistical techniques aimed at quantifying the magnitude of projected mean rainfall and number of rainy days over Rwanda on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales for the period 2015-2050. The datasets for this period were generated by BCM2.0 for the SRES emission scenario SRB1, CO2 concentration for the baseline scenario (2011-2030) using the stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG). It was observed that on average, there will be a steady decline in mean rainfall. Save for the short rainy season, a positive trend in mean rainfall is expected over the south-west, the north-east region, and the northern highlands. The other regions (central, south-east, and western regions) are likely to experience a decline in mean rainfall. The number of rainy days is expected to decrease in the central plateau and the south-eastern lowlands, while the south-west, the north-west, and north-east regions are expected to have a pattern of increased number of rainy days. This decline in mean rainfall and rainy days over a large part of Rwanda is an indicator of just how much the country is bound to experience reduced water supply for various uses (e.g., agriculture, domestic activities, and industrial activities).

Geomagnetic field declination: from decadal to centennial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrica, Venera; Demetrescu, Crisan; Mandea, Mioara

2018-04-01

Declination annual mean time series longer than 1 century provided by 24 geomagnetic observatories worldwide, together with 5 Western European reconstructed declination series over the last 4 centuries, have been analyzed in terms of the frequency constituents of the secular variation at inter-decadal and sub-centennial timescales of 20-35 and 70-90 years. Observatory and reconstructed time series have been processed by several types of filtering, namely Hodrick-Prescott, running averages, and Butterworth. The Hodrick-Prescott filtering allows us to separate a quasi-oscillation at a decadal timescale, which is assumed to be related to external variations and called the 11-year constituent, from a long-term trend. The latter has been decomposed into two other oscillations called inter-decadal and sub-centennial constituents by applying a Butterworth filtering with cutoffs at 30 and 73 years, respectively. The analysis shows that the generally accepted geomagnetic jerks occur around extrema in the time derivative of the trend and coincide with extrema in the time derivative of the 11-year constituent. The sub-centennial constituent is traced back to 1600 in the five 400-year-long time series and seems to be a major constituent of the secular variation, geomagnetic jerks included.

Long-term effects of prescribed fire on mixed conifer forest structure in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Knapp, Eric; Keeley, Jon E.

2011-01-01

The capacity of prescribed fire to restore forest conditions is often judged by changes in forest structure within a few years following burning. However, prescribed fire might have longer-term effects on forest structure, potentially changing treatment assessments. We examined annual changes in forest structure in five 1 ha old-growth plots immediately before prescribed fire and up to eight years after fire at Sequoia National Park, California. Fire-induced declines in stem density (67% average decrease at eight years post-fire) were nonlinear, taking up to eight years to reach a presumed asymptote. Declines in live stem biomass were also nonlinear, but smaller in magnitude (32% average decrease at eight years post-fire) as most large trees survived the fires. The preferential survival of large trees following fire resulted in significant shifts in stem diameter distributions. Mortality rates remained significantly above background rates up to six years after the fires. Prescribed fire did not have a large influence on the representation of dominant species. Fire-caused mortality appeared to be spatially random, and therefore did not generally alter heterogeneous tree spatial patterns. Our results suggest that prescribed fire can bring about substantial changes to forest structure in old-growth mixed conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, but that long-term observations are needed to fully describe some measures of fire effects.

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan

2017-03-01

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by midcentury and -35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at midcentury and -55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.