Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-08-16

Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

Satellite derived estimates of forest leaf area index in South-west Western Australia are not tightly coupled to inter-annual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smettem, Keith; Waring, Richard; Callow, Nik; Wilson, Melissa; Mu, Qiaozhen

2013-04-01

There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. Ecological optimality proposes that the long term average canopy size of undisturbed perennial vegetation is tightly coupled to climate. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study we analysed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of South-west Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000-2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, inter-annual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long term decline in areal average underground water storage storage and diminished summer flows, with a trend towards more ephemeral flow regimes.

Effects of alternative instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options in the Big River Area, Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.; Barlow, Paul M.

2005-01-01

Transient numerical ground-water-flow simulation and optimization techniques were used to evaluate potential effects of instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options and resultant streamflow depletions in the Big River Area, Rhode Island. The 35.7 square-mile (mi2) study area includes three river basins, the Big River Basin (30.9 mi2), the Carr River Basin (which drains to the Big River Basin and is 7.33 mi2 in area), the Mishnock River Basin (3.32 mi2), and a small area that drains directly to the Flat River Reservoir. The overall objective of the simulations was to determine the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn from the three basins when constrained by streamflow requirements at four locations in the study area and by maximum rates of withdrawal at 13 existing and hypothetical well sites. The instream-flow requirement for the outlet of each basin and the outfall of Lake Mishnock were the primary variables that limited the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. A requirement to meet seasonal ground-water-demand patterns also limits the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn by up to about 50 percent of the total withdrawals without the demand-pattern constraint. Minimum water-supply demands from a public water supplier in the Mishnock River Basin, however, did not have a substantial effect on withdrawals in the Big River Basin. Hypothetical dry-period instream-flow requirements and the effects of artificial recharge also affected the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. Results of simulations indicate that annual average ground-water withdrawal rates that range up to 16 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) can be withdrawn from the study area under simulated average hydrologic conditions depending on instream-flow criteria and water-supply demand patterns. Annual average withdrawals of 10 to 12 Mgal/d are possible for proposed demands of 3.4 Mgal/d in the Mishnock Basin, and for a constant annual instream-flow criterion of 0.5 cubic foot per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) at the four streamflow-constraint locations. An average withdrawal rate of 10 Mgal/d can meet estimates of future (2020) water-supply needs of surrounding communities in Rhode Island. This withdrawal rate represents about 13 percent of the average 2002 daily withdrawal from the Scituate Reservoir (76 Mgal/d), the State?s largest water supply. Average annual withdrawal rates of 6 to 7 Mgal/d are possible for more stringent instream-flow criteria that might be used during dry-period hydrologic conditions. Two example scenarios of dry-period instream-flow constraints were evaluated: first, a minimum instream flow of 0.1 cubic foot per second at any of the four constraint locations; and second, a minimum instream flow of 10 percent of the minimum monthly streamflow estimate for each streamflow-constraint location during the period 1961?2000. The State of Rhode Island is currently (2004) considering methods for establishing instream-flow criteria for streams within the State. Twelve alternative annual, seasonal, or monthly instream-flow criteria that have been or are being considered for application in southeastern New England were used as hypothetical constraints on maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates in management-model calculations. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 5 to 16 Mgal/d under five alternative annual instream-flow criteria. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 0 to 13.6 Mgal/d under seven alternative seasonal or monthly instream-flow criteria. The effect of ground-water withdrawals on seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows under each criterion also were compared. Evaluation of management-model results indicates that a single annual instream-flowcriterion may be sufficient to preserve seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows and meet water-supply demands in the Big River Area, because withdrawals from wells in the Big

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

2017-01-01

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

A stream-gaging network analysis for the 7-day, 10-year annual low flow in New Hampshire streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.

2003-01-01

The 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) low-flow-frequency statistic is a widely used measure of surface-water availability in New Hampshire. Regression equations and basin-characteristic digital data sets were developed to help water-resource managers determine surface-water resources during periods of low flow in New Hampshire streams. These regression equations and data sets were developed to estimate streamflow statistics for the annual and seasonal low-flow-frequency, and period-of-record and seasonal period-of-record flow durations. generalized-least-squares (GLS) regression methods were used to develop the annual 7Q10 low-flow-frequency regression equation from 60 continuous-record stream-gaging stations in New Hampshire and in neighboring States. In the regression equation, the dependent variables were the annual 7Q10 flows at the 60 stream-gaging stations. The independent (or predictor) variables were objectively selected characteristics of the drainage basins that contribute flow to those stations. In contrast to ordinary-least-squares (OLS) regression analysis, GLS-developed estimating equations account for differences in length of record and spatial correlations among the flow-frequency statistics at the various stations.A total of 93 measurable drainage-basin characteristics were candidate independent variables. On the basis of several statistical parameters that were used to evaluate which combination of basin characteristics contribute the most to the predictive power of the equations, three drainage-basin characteristics were determined to be statistically significant predictors of the annual 7Q10: (1) total drainage area, (2) mean summer stream-gaging station precipitation from 1961 to 90, and (3) average mean annual basinwide temperature from 1961 to 1990.To evaluate the effectiveness of the stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow data for the annual 7Q10, the computer program GLSNET (generalized-least-squares NETwork) was used to analyze the network by application of GLS regression between streamflow and the climatic and basin characteristics of the drainage basin upstream from each stream-gaging station. Improvement to the predictive ability of the regression equations developed for the network analyses is measured by the reduction in the average sampling-error variance, and can be achieved by collecting additional streamflow data at existing stations. The predictive ability of the regression equations is enhanced even further with the addition of new stations to the network. Continued data collection at unregulated stream-gaging stations with less than 14 years of record resulted in the greatest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance of the annual 7Q10 regional regression equation. The addition of new stations in basins with underrepresented values for the independent variables of the total drainage area, average mean annual basinwide temperature, or mean summer stream-gaging station precipitation in the annual 7Q10 regression equation yielded a much greater cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance than when more data were collected at existing unregulated stations. To maximize the regional information obtained from the stream-gaging network for the annual 7Q10, ranking of the streamflow data can be used to determine whether an active station should be continued or if a new or discontinued station should be activated for streamflow data collection. Thus, this network analysis can help determine the costs and benefits of continuing the operation of a particular station or activating a new station at another location to predict the 7Q10 at ungaged stream reaches. The decision to discontinue an existing station or activate a new station, however, must also consider its contribution to other water-resource analyses such as flood management, water quality, or trends in land use or climatic change.

Selected low-flow frequency statistics for continuous-record streamgages in Georgia, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.

2016-04-13

This report presents the annual and monthly minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with the 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10 and 7Q10) for 197 continuous-record streamgages in Georgia. Streamgages used in the study included active and discontinued stations having a minimum of 10 complete climatic years of record as of September 30, 2013. The 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics were computed for 85 streamgages on unregulated streams with minimal diversions upstream, 43 streamgages on regulated streams, and 69 streamgages known, or considered, to be affected by varying degrees of diversions upstream. Descriptive information for each of these streamgages, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station number, station name, latitude, longitude, county, drainage area, and period of record analyzed also is presented.Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows for the 197 streamgages. Significant negative trends in the minimum annual 1-day and 7-day average streamflow were indicated for 77 of the 197 streamgages. Many of these significant negative trends are due to the period of record ending during one of the recent droughts in Georgia, particularly those streamgages with record through the 2013 water year. Long-term unregulated streamgages with 70 or more years of record indicate significant negative trends in the annual minimum 7-day average flow for central and southern Georgia. Watersheds for some of these streamgages have experienced minimal human impact, thus indicating that the significant negative trends observed in flows at the long-term streamgages may be influenced by changing climatological conditions. A Kendall-tau trend analysis of the annual air temperature and precipitation totals for Georgia indicated no significant trends. A comprehensive analysis of causes of the trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia is outside the scope of this study. Further study is needed to determine some of the causes, including both climatological and human impacts, of the significant negative trends in annual minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia.To assess the changes in the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics over time for long-term continuous streamgages with significant trends in record, the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics were computed on a decadal accumulated basis for 39 streamgages having 40 or more years of record that indicated a significant trend. Records from most of the streamgages showed a decline in 7Q10 statistics for the decades of 1980–89, 1990–99, and 2000–09 because of the recent droughts in Georgia. Twenty four of the 39 streamgages had complete records from 1980 to 2010, and records from 23 of these gages exhibited a decline in the 7Q10 statistics during this period, ranging from –6.3 to –76.2 percent with a mean of –27.3 percent. No attempts were made during this study to adjust streamflow records or statistical analyses on the basis of trends.The monthly and annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics for the entire period of record analyzed in the study are incorporated into the USGS StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for Georgia. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected streamgages.

An analysis of effect of land use change on river flow variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tao; Liu, Yuting; Yang, Xinyue; Wang, Xiang

2018-02-01

Land use scenario analysis, SWAT model, flow characteristic indices and flow variability technology were used to analyze the effect of land use quantity and location change on river flow. Results showed that river flow variation caused by land use change from forest to crop was larger than that caused by land use change from forest to grass; Land use change neither from upstream to downstream nor from downstream to upstream had little effect on annual average discharge and maximum annual average discharge. But it had obvious effect on maximum daily discharge; Land use change which occurred in upstream could lead to producing larger magnitude flood more easily; Land use change from forest to crop or grass could increase the number of large magnitude floods and their total duration. And it also could increase the number of small magnitude floods but decrease their duration.

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in North Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.

2017-01-13

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics for ungaged streams in north Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, diversions, or urbanization. Selected low-flow frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 56 streamgage locations within north Georgia and 75 miles beyond the State’s borders in Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina were combined to form the final dataset used in the regional regression analysis. Because some of the streamgages in the study recorded zero flow, the final regression equations were developed using weighted left-censored regression analysis to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. The set of equations includes the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflow with the 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as 1Q10 and 7Q10), monthly 7Q10, and mean annual flow. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and relief ratio for the selected low-flow frequency statistics and drainage area and mean annual precipitation for mean annual flow. The average standard error of estimate was 13.7 percent for the mean annual flow regression equation and ranged from 26.1 to 91.6 percent for the selected low-flow frequency equations.The equations, which are based on data from streams with little to no flow alterations, can be used to provide estimates of the natural flows for selected ungaged stream locations in the area of Georgia north of the Fall Line. The regression equations are not to be used to estimate flows for streams that have been altered by the effects of major dams, surface-water withdrawals, groundwater withdrawals (pumping wells), diversions, or wastewater discharges. The regression equations should be used only for ungaged sites with drainage areas between 1.67 and 576 square miles, mean annual precipitation between 47.6 and 81.6 inches, and relief ratios between 0.146 and 0.607; these are the ranges of the explanatory variables used to develop the equations. An attempt was made to develop regional regression equations for the area of Georgia south of the Fall Line by using the same approach used during this study for north Georgia; however, the equations resulted with high average standard errors of estimates and poorly predicted flows below 0.5 cubic foot per second, which may be attributed to the karst topography common in that area.The final regression equations developed from this study are planned to be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. The StreamStats program provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for U.S. Geological Survey streamgage locations and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats also can compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in Georgia.

Ground-Water Occurrence and Contribution to Streamflow, Northeast Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gingerich, Stephen B.

1999-01-01

The study area lies on the northern flank of the East Maui Volcano (Haleakala) and covers about 129 square miles between the drainage basins of Maliko Gulch to the west and Makapipi Stream to the east. About 989 million gallons per day of rainfall and 176 million gallons per day of fog drip reaches the study area and about 529 million gallons per day enters the ground-water system as recharge. Average annual ground-water withdrawal from wells totals only about 3 million gallons per day; proposed (as of 1998) additional withdrawals total about 18 million gallons per day. Additionally, tunnels and ditches of an extensive irrigation network directly intercept at least 10 million gallons per day of ground water. The total amount of average annual streamflow in gaged stream subbasins upstream of 1,300 feet altitude is about 255 million gallons per day and the total amount of average annual base flow is about 62 million gallons per day. Six major surface-water diversion systems in the study area have diverted an average of 163 million gallons per day of streamflow (including nearly all base flow of diverted streams) for irrigation and domestic supply in central Maui during 1925-97. Fresh ground water is found in two main forms. West of Keanae Valley, ground-water flow appears to be dominated by a variably saturated system. A saturated zone in the uppermost rock unit, the Kula Volcanics, is separated from a freshwater lens near sea level by an unsaturated zone in the underlying Honomanu Basalt. East of Keanae Valley, the ground-water system appears to be fully saturated above sea level to altitudes greater than 2,000 feet. The total average annual streamflow of gaged streams west of Keanae Valley is about 140 million gallons per day at 1,200 feet to 1,300 feet altitude. It is not possible to estimate the total average annual streamflow at the coast. All of the base flow measured in the study area west of Keanae Valley represents ground-water discharge from the high-elevation saturated zone. Total average daily ground-water discharge from the high-elevation saturated zone upstream of 1,200 feet altitude is greater than 38 million gallons per day, all of which is eventually removed from the streams by surface-water diversion systems. Perennial streamflow has been measured at altitudes greater than 3,000 feet in several of the streams. Discharge from the high-elevation saturated zone is persistent even during periods of little rainfall. The total average annual streamflow of the gaged streams east of Keanae Valley is about 109 million gallons per day at about 1,300 feet altitude. It is not possible to estimate the total average annual streamflow at the coast nor at higher altitudes. All of the base flow measured east of Keanae Valley represents ground-water discharge from the vertically extensive freshwater-lens system. Total average daily ground-water discharge to gaged streams upstream of 1,200 feet altitude is about 27 million gallons per day. About 19 million gallons per day of ground water discharges through the Kula and Hana Volcanics between about 500 feet and 1,300 feet altitude in the gaged stream sub-basins. About 13 million gallons per day of this discharge is in Hanawi Stream. The total ground-water discharge above 500 feet altitude in this part of the study area is greater than 56 million gallons per day.

Hydrogeology of, and simulation of ground-water flow in a mantled carbonate-rock system, Cumberland Valley, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chichester, D.C.

1996-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in a highly productive and complex regolith-mantled carbonate valley in the northeastern part of the Cumberland Valley, Pa., as part of its Appalachian Valleys and Piedmont Regional Aquifer-system Analysis program. The study was designed to quantify the hydrogeologic characteristics and understand the ground-water flow system of a highly productive and complex thickly mantled carbonate valley. The Cumberland Valley is characterized by complexly folded and faulted carbonate bedrock in the valley bottom, by shale and graywacke to the north, and by red-sedimentary and diabase rocks in the east-southeast. Near the southern valley hillslope, the carbonate rock is overlain by wedge-shaped deposit of regolith, up to 450 feet thick, that is composed of residual material, alluvium, and colluvium. Locally, saturated regolith is greater than 200 feet thick. Seepage-run data indicate that stream reaches, near valley walls, are losing water from the stream, through the regolith, to the ground-water system. Results of hydrograph-separation analyses indicate that base flow in stream basins dominated by regolith-mantled carbonate rock, carbonate rock, and carbonate rock and shale are 81.6, 93.0, and 67.7 percent of total streamflow, respectively. The relative high percentage for the regolith-mantled carbonate-rock basin indicates that the regolith stores precipitation and slowly, steadily releases this water to the carbonate-rock aquifer and to streams as base flow. Anomalies in water-table gradients and configuration are a result of topography and differences in the character and distribution of overburden material, permeability, rock type, and geologic structure. Most ground-water flow is local, and ground water discharges to nearby springs and streams. Regional flow is northeastward to the Susquehanna River. Average-annual water budgets were calculated for the period of record from two continuous streamflow-gaging stations. Average-annual precipitation range from 39.0 to 40.5 inches, and averages about 40 inches for the model area. Average-annual recharge, which was assumed equal to the average-annual base flow, ranged from 12 inches for the Conodoguinet Creek, and 15 inches for the Yellow Breeches Creek. The thickly-mantled carbonate system was modeled as a three- dimensional water-table aquifer. Recharge to, ground-water flow through, and discharge from the Cumberland Valley were simulated. The model was calibrated for steady-state conditions using average recharge and discharge data. Aquifer horizontal hydraulic conductivity was calculated from specific-capacity data for each geologic unit in the area. Particle-tracking analyses indicate that interbasin and intrabasin flows of groundwater occur within the Yellow Breeches Creek Basin and between the Yellow Breeches and Conodoguinet Creek Basins.

Flow-duration-frequency behaviour of British rivers based on annual minima data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidman, Maxine D.; Keller, Virginie; Young, Andrew R.; Cadman, Daniel

2003-06-01

A comparison of different probability distribution models for describing the flow-duration-frequency behaviour of annual minima flow events in British rivers is reported. Twenty-five catchments were included in the study, each having stable and natural flow records of at least 30 years in length. Time series of annual minima D-day average flows were derived for each record using durations ( D) of 1, 7, 30, 60, 90, and 365 days and used to construct low flow frequency curves. In each case the Gringorten plotting position formula was used to determine probabilities (of non-exceedance). Four distribution types—Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), Generalised Logistic (GL), Pearson Type-3 (PE3) and Generalised Pareto (GP)—were used to model the probability distribution function for each site. L-moments were used to parameterise individual models, whilst goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess their match to the sample data. The study showed that where short durations (i.e. 60 days or less) were considered, high storage catchments tended to be best represented by GL and GEV distribution models whilst low storage catchments were best described by PE3 or GEV models. However, these models produced reasonable results only within a limited range (e.g. models for high storage catchments did not produce sensible estimates of return periods where the prescribed flow was less than 10% of the mean flow). For annual minima series derived using long duration flow averages (e.g. more than 90 days), GP and GEV models were generally more applicable. The study suggests that longer duration minima do not conform to the same distribution types as short durations, and that catchment properties can influence the type of distribution selected.

Satellite-derived estimates of forest leaf area index in southwest Western Australia are not tightly coupled to interannual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate.

PubMed

Smettem, Keith R J; Waring, Richard H; Callow, John N; Wilson, Melissa; Mu, Qiaozhen

2013-08-01

There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study, we analyzed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of southwest Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000-2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, interannual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long-term decline in areal average underground water storage and diminished summer flows, with an emerging trend toward more ephemeral flow regimes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations and loads at Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas, 1997-1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, W. Reed; Haggard, Brian E.

2001-01-01

Water-quality sampling consisting of every other month (bimonthly) routine sampling and storm event sampling (six storms annually) is used to estimate annual phosphorus and nitrogen loads at Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas. Hydrograph separation allowed assessment of base-flow and surfacerunoff nutrient relations and yield. Discharge and nutrient relations indicate that water quality at Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas, is affected by both point and nonpoint sources of contamination. Base-flow phosphorus concentrations decreased with increasing base-flow discharge indicating the dilution of phosphorus in water from point sources. Nitrogen concentrations increased with increasing base-flow discharge, indicating a predominant ground-water source. Nitrogen concentrations at higher base-flow discharges often were greater than median concentrations reported for ground water (from wells and springs) in the Springfield Plateau aquifer. Total estimated phosphorus and nitrogen annual loads for calendar year 1997-1999 using the regression techniques presented in this paper (35 samples) were similar to estimated loads derived from integration techniques (1,033 samples). Flow-weighted nutrient concentrations and nutrient yields at the Illinois River site were about 10 to 100 times greater than national averages for undeveloped basins and at North Sylamore Creek and Cossatot River (considered to be undeveloped basins in Arkansas). Total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus were greater than 10 times and total nitrogen and dissolved nitrite plus nitrate were greater than 10 to 100 times the national and regional averages for undeveloped basins. These results demonstrate the utility of a strategy whereby samples are collected every other month and during selected storm events annually, with use of regression models to estimate nutrient loads. Annual loads of phosphorus and nitrogen estimated using regression techniques could provide similar results to estimates using integration techniques, with much less investment.

Streamflow statistical summaries for Colorado streams through September 30, 1975; Volume 2, Colorado River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petsch, Harold E.

1979-01-01

Statistical summaries of daily streamflow data for 189 stations west of the Continental Divide in Colorado are presented in this report. Duration tables, high-flow sequence tables, and low-flow sequence tables provide information about daily mean discharge. The mean, variance, standard deviation, skewness, and coefficient of variation are provided for monthly and annual flows. Percentages of average flow are provided for monthly flows and first-order serial-correlation coefficients are provided for annual flows. The text explain the nature and derivation of the data and illustrates applications of the tabulated information by examples. The data may be used by agencies and individuals engaged in water studies. (USGS)

Recession-based hydrological models for estimating low flows in ungauged catchments in the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, H. G.; Holmes, M. G. R.; Young, A. R.; Kansakar, S. R.

The Himalayan region of Nepal and northern India experiences hydrological extremes from monsoonal floods during July to September, when most of the annual precipitation falls, to periods of very low flows during the dry season (December to February). While the monsoon floods cause acute disasters such as loss of human life and property, mudslides and infrastructure damage, the lack of water during the dry season has a chronic impact on the lives of local people. The management of water resources in the region is hampered by relatively sparse hydrometerological networks and consequently, many resource assessments are required in catchments where no measurements exist. A hydrological model for estimating dry season flows in ungauged catchments, based on recession curve behaviour, has been developed to address this problem. Observed flows were fitted to a second order storage model to enable average annual recession behaviour to be examined. Regionalised models were developed, using a calibration set of 26 catchments, to predict three recession curve parameters: the storage constant; the initial recession flow and the start date of the recession. Relationships were identified between: the storage constant and catchment area; the initial recession flow and elevation (acting as a surrogate for rainfall); and the start date of the recession and geographic location. An independent set of 13 catchments was used to evaluate the robustness of the models. The regional models predicted the average volume of water in an annual recession period (1st of October to the 1st of February) with an average error of 8%, while mid-January flows were predicted to within ±50% for 79% of the catchments in the data set.

Peak-flow characteristics of Wyoming streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kirk A.

2003-01-01

Peak-flow characteristics for unregulated streams in Wyoming are described in this report. Frequency relations for annual peak flows through water year 2000 at 364 streamflow-gaging stations in and near Wyoming were evaluated and revised or updated as needed. Analyses of historical floods, temporal trends, and generalized skew were included in the evaluation. Physical and climatic basin characteristics were determined for each gaging station using a geographic information system. Gaging stations with similar peak-flow and basin characteristics were grouped into six hydrologic regions. Regional statistical relations between peak-flow and basin characteristics were explored using multiple-regression techniques. Generalized least squares regression equations for estimating magnitudes of annual peak flows with selected recurrence intervals from 1.5 to 500 years were developed for each region. Average standard errors of estimate range from 34 to 131 percent. Average standard errors of prediction range from 35 to 135 percent. Several statistics for evaluating and comparing the errors in these estimates are described. Limitations of the equations are described. Methods for applying the regional equations for various circumstances are listed and examples are given.

Potentiometric surfaces of the upper glacial and Magothy aquifers and selected streamflow statistics, 1943-72, on Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaupel, Donald E.; Prince, K.R.; Koehler, A.J.; Runco, Mario

1977-01-01

A brief text describes the two major aquifers and the discharge pattern of major streams on Long Island. Four water-table maps for the years 1943, 1959, 1966, and 1972, an average water-table map for the period 1943-72 supplemented by five well hydrographs representing Kings, Queens, western Nassau, eastern Nassau, and Suffolk Counties, and three potentiometric- surface maps of the Magothy aquifer for the years 1959, 1966, and 1972 are included. A statistical summary of stream discharge presents average annual discharges, annual average discharges, and average 7-day, 10-year low-flow discharges for major streams.

Annual variability of PAH concentrations in the Potomac River watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maher, I.L.; Foster, G.D.

1995-12-31

Dynamics of organic contaminant transport in a large river system is influenced by annual variability in organic contaminant concentrations. Surface runoff and groundwater input control the flow of river waters. They are also the two major inputs of contaminants to river waters. The annual variability of contaminant concentrations in rivers may or may not represent similar trends to the flow changes of river waters. The purpose of the research is to define the annual variability in concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in riverine environment. To accomplish this, from March 1992 to March 1995 samples of Potomac River water weremore » collected monthly or bimonthly downstream of the Chesapeake Bay fall line (Chain Bridge) during base flow and main storm flow hydrologic conditions. Concentrations of selected PAHs were measured in the dissolved phase and the particulate phase via GC/MS. The study of the annual variability of PAH concentrations will be performed through comparisons of PAH concentrations seasonally, annually, and through study of PAH concentration river discharge dependency and rainfall dependency. For selected PAHs monthly and annual loadings will be estimated based on their measured concentrations and average daily river discharge. The monthly loadings of selected PAHs will be compared by seasons and annually.« less

Streamflow statistical summaries for Colorado streams through September 30, 1975: Volume 1: Missouri River, Arkansas River, and Rio Grande Basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petsch, Harold E.

1979-01-01

Statistical summaries of daily streamflow data for 246 stations east of the Continental Divide in Colorado and adjacent States are presented in this report. Duration tables, high-flow sequence tables, and low-flow sequence tables provide information about daily mean discharge. The mean, variance, standard deviation, skewness, and coefficient of variation are provided for monthly and annual flows. Percentages of average flow are provided for monthly flows and first-order serial-correlation coefficients are provided for annual flows. The text explains the nature and derivation of the data and illustrates applications of the tabulated information by examples. The data may be used by agencies and individuals engaged in water studies. (USGS)

Trends in streamflow in the Yukon River Basin from 1944 to 2005 and the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabets, T.P.; Walvoord, Michelle Ann

2009-01-01

Streamflow characteristics in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska and Canada have changed from 1944 to 2005, and some of the change can be attributed to the two most recent modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Seasonal, monthly, and annual stream discharge data from 21 stations in the Yukon River Basin were analyzed for trends over the entire period of record, generally spanning 4-6 decades, and examined for differences between the two most recent modes of the PDO: cold-PDO (1944-1975) and warm-PDO (1976-2005) subsets. Between 1944 and 2005, average winter and April flow increased at 15 sites. Observed winter flow increases during the cold-PDO phase were generally limited to sites in the Upper Yukon River Basin. Positive trends in winter flow during the warm-PDO phase broadened to include stations in the Middle and Lower Yukon River drainage basins. Increases in winter streamflow most likely result from groundwater input enhanced by permafrost thawing that promotes infiltration and deeper subsurface flow paths. Increased April flow may be attributed to a combination of greater baseflow (from groundwater increases), earlier spring snowmelt and runoff, and increased winter precipitation, depending on location. Calculated deviations from long-term mean monthly discharges indicate below-average flow in the winter months during the cold PDO and above-average flow in the winter months during the warm PDO. Although not as strong a signal, results also support the reverse response during the summer months: above-average flow during the cold PDO and below-average flow during the warm PDO. Changes in the summer flows are likely an indirect consequence of the PDO, resulting from earlier spring snowmelt runoff and also perhaps increased summer infiltration and storage in a deeper active layer. Annual discharge has remained relatively unchanged in the Yukon River Basin, but a few glacier-fed rivers demonstrate positive trends, which can be attributed to enhanced glacier melting. A positive trend in annual flow during the warm PDO near the mouth of the Yukon River suggests that small increases in flow throughout the Yukon River Basin have resulted in an additive effect manifested in the downstream-most streamflow station. Many of the identified changes in streamflow patterns in the Yukon River Basin show a correlation to the PDO regime shift. This work highlights the importance of considering proximate climate forcings as well as global climate change when assessing hydrologic changes in the Arctic.

Hydrology of Eagle Creek Basin and effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow, 1969-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matherne, Anne Marie; Myers, Nathan C.; McCoy, Kurt J.

2010-01-01

Urban and resort development and drought conditions have placed increasing demands on the surface-water and groundwater resources of the Eagle Creek Basin, in southcentral New Mexico. The Village of Ruidoso, New Mexico, obtains 60-70 percent of its water from the Eagle Creek Basin. The village drilled four production wells on Forest Service land along North Fork Eagle Creek; three of the four wells were put into service in 1988 and remain in use. Local citizens have raised questions as to the effects of North Fork well pumping on flow in Eagle Creek. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Village of Ruidoso, conducted a hydrologic investigation from 2007 through 2009 of the potential effect of the North Fork well field on streamflow in North Fork Eagle Creek. Mean annual precipitation for the period of record (1942-2008) at the Ruidoso climate station is 22.21 inches per year with a range from 12.27 inches in 1970 to 34.81 inches in 1965. Base-flow analysis indicates that the 1970-80 mean annual discharge, direct runoff, and base flow were 2,260, 1,440, and 819 acre-ft/yr, respectively, and for 1989-2008 were 1,290, 871, and 417 acre-ft/yr, respectively. These results indicate that mean annual discharge, direct runoff, and base flow were less during the 1989-2008 period than during the 1970-80 period. Mean annual precipitation volume for the study area was estimated to be 12,200 acre-feet. Estimated annual evapotranspiration for the study area ranged from 8,730 to 8,890 acre-feet. Estimated annual basin yield for the study area was 3,390 acre-ft or about 28 percent of precipitation. On the basis of basin-yield computations, annual recharge was estimated to be 1,950 acre-ft, about 16 percent of precipitation. Using a chloride mass-balance method, groundwater recharge over the study area was estimated to average 490 acre-ft, about 4.0 percent of precipitation. Because the North Fork wells began pumping in 1988, 1969-80 represents the pre-groundwater-pumping period, and 1988-2009 represents the groundwater-pumping period. The 5-year moving average for precipitation at the Ruidoso climate station shows years of below-average precipitation during both time periods, but no days of zero flow were recorded for the 11-year period 1970-80 and no-flow days were recorded in 11 of 20 years for the 1988-2009 period. View report for unabridged abstract.

Statistical Approaches for Spatiotemporal Prediction of Low Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, A.; Haberlandt, U.

2017-12-01

An adequate assessment of regional climate change impacts on streamflow requires the integration of various sources of information and modeling approaches. This study proposes simple statistical tools for inclusion into model ensembles, which are fast and straightforward in their application, yet able to yield accurate streamflow predictions in time and space. Target variables for all approaches are annual low flow indices derived from a data set of 51 records of average daily discharge for northwestern Germany. The models require input of climatic data in the form of meteorological drought indices, derived from observed daily climatic variables, averaged over the streamflow gauges' catchments areas. Four different modeling approaches are analyzed. Basis for all pose multiple linear regression models that estimate low flows as a function of a set of meteorological indices and/or physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors. For the first method, individual regression models are fitted at each station, predicting annual low flow values from a set of annual meteorological indices, which are subsequently regionalized using a set of catchment characteristics. The second method combines temporal and spatial prediction within a single panel data regression model, allowing estimation of annual low flow values from input of both annual meteorological indices and catchment descriptors. The third and fourth methods represent non-stationary low flow frequency analyses and require fitting of regional distribution functions. Method three is subject to a spatiotemporal prediction of an index value, method four to estimation of L-moments that adapt the regional frequency distribution to the at-site conditions. The results show that method two outperforms successive prediction in time and space. Method three also shows a high performance in the near future period, but since it relies on a stationary distribution, its application for prediction of far future changes may be problematic. Spatiotemporal prediction of L-moments appeared highly uncertain for higher-order moments resulting in unrealistic future low flow values. All in all, the results promote an inclusion of simple statistical methods in climate change impact assessment.

Low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Wiegand, Ute

2011-01-01

Low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities (ANEP), called probability-percent chance (P-percent chance) flow estimates, regional regression equations, and transfer methods are provided describing the low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate streamflow data. Analysis of Virginia streamflow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating low-flow characteristics of gaged and ungaged streams. The 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average streamgaging station low-flow characteristics for 290 long-term, continuous-record, streamgaging stations are determined, adjusted for instances of zero flow using a conditional probability adjustment method, and presented for non-exceedance probabilities of 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.05, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.005. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression equations to estimate annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites and are summarized for 290 long-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Regional regression equations for six physiographic regions use basin characteristics to estimate 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted low-flow values that combine computed streamgaging station low-flow characteristics and annual non-exceedance probabilities from regional regression equations provide improved low-flow estimates. Regression equations developed using the Maintenance of Variance with Extension (MOVE.1) method describe the line of organic correlation (LOC) with an appropriate index site for low-flow characteristics at 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Monthly streamflow statistics computed on the individual daily mean streamflows of selected continuous-record streamgaging stations and curves describing flow-duration are presented. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing low-flow estimates, selected low-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, basin characteristics, regression equations, error estimates, definitions, and data sources. This study supersedes previous studies of low flows in Virginia.

Estimation of streamflow, base flow, and nitrate-nitrogen loads in Iowa using multiple linear regression models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

2005-01-01

Nineteen variables, including precipitation, soils and geology, land use, and basin morphologic characteristics, were evaluated to develop Iowa regression models to predict total streamflow (Q), base flow (Qb), storm flow (Qs) and base flow percentage (%Qb) in gauged and ungauged watersheds in the state. Discharge records from a set of 33 watersheds across the state for the 1980 to 2000 period were separated into Qb and Qs. Multiple linear regression found that 75.5 percent of long term average Q was explained by rainfall, sand content, and row crop percentage variables, whereas 88.5 percent of Qb was explained by these three variables plus permeability and floodplain area variables. Qs was explained by average rainfall and %Qb was a function of row crop percentage, permeability, and basin slope variables. Regional regression models developed for long term average Q and Qb were adapted to annual rainfall and showed good correlation between measured and predicted values. Combining the regression model for Q with an estimate of mean annual nitrate concentration, a map of potential nitrate loads in the state was produced. Results from this study have important implications for understanding geomorphic and land use controls on streamflow and base flow in Iowa watersheds and similar agriculture dominated watersheds in the glaciated Midwest. (JAWRA) (Copyright ?? 2005).

The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Streamflow characteristics and trends in New Jersey, water years 1897-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Reiser, Robert G.; Nieswand, Steven P.; Schopp, Robert D.

2005-01-01

Streamflow statistics were computed for 111 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of continuous record and for 500 low-flow partial-record stations, including 66 gaging stations with less than 20 years of continuous record. Daily mean streamflow data from water year 1897 through water year 2001 were used for the computations at the gaging stations. (The water year is the 12-month period, October 1 through September 30, designated by the calendar year in which it ends). The characteristics presented for the long-term continuous-record stations are daily streamflow, harmonic mean flow, flow frequency, daily flow durations, trend analysis, and streamflow variability. Low-flow statistics for gaging stations with less than 20 years of record and for partial-record stations were estimated by correlating base-flow measurements with daily mean flows at long-term (more than 20 years) continuous-record stations. Instantaneous streamflow measurements through water year 2003 were used to estimate low-flow statistics at the partial-record stations. The characteristics presented for partial-record stations are mean annual flow; harmonic mean flow; and annual and winter low-flow frequency. The annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low- and high-flow data sets were tested for trends. The results of trend tests for high flows indicate relations between upward trends for high flows and stream regulation, and high flows and development in the basin. The relation between development and low-flow trends does not appear to be as strong as for development and high-flow trends. Monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation data for selected long-term meteorological stations also were tested for trends to analyze the effects of climate. A significant upward trend in precipitation in northern New Jersey, Climate Division 1 was identified. For Climate Division 2, no general increase in average precipitation was observed. Trend test results indicate that high flows at undeveloped, unregulated sites have not been affected by the increase in average precipitation. The ratio of instantaneous peak flow to 3-day mean flow, ratios of flow duration, ratios of high-flow/low-flow frequency, and coefficient of variation were used to define streamflow variability. Streamflow variability was significantly greater among the group of gaging stations located outside the Coastal Plain than among the group of gaging stations located in the Coastal Plain.

Surface waters of North Boggy Creek basin in the Muddy Boggy Creek basin in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.

1958-01-01

Analysis of short-term streamflow data in North Boggy Creek basin indicates that the average runoff in this region is substantial. The streamflow is highly variable from year to year and from month to month. The estimated total yield from the North Boggy Creek watershed of 231 square miles averages 155,000 acre-feet annually, equivalent to an average runoff depth of 12 1/2 inches. Almost a fourth of the annual volume is contributed by Chickasaw Creek basin, where about 35,000 acre-feet runs off from 46 square miles. Two years of records show a variation in runoff for the calendar year 1957 in comparison to 1956 in a ratio of 13 to 1 for the station on North Boggy Creek and a ratio of 18 to 1 for the station on Chickasaw Creek. In a longer-term record downstream on Muddy Boggy Creek near Farris, the corresponding range was 17 to 1, while the calendar years 1945 and 1956 show a 20-fold variation in runoff. Within a year the higher runoff tends to occur in the spring months, April to June, a 3-month period that, on the average, accounts for at least half of the annual flow. High runoff may occur during any month in the year, but in general, the streamflow is relatively small in the summer. Records for the gaging stations noted indicate that there is little or no base flow in the summer, and thus there will be periods of no flow at times in most years. The variation in runoff during a year is suggested by a frequency analysis of low flows at the reference station on Muddy Boggy Creek near Farris. Although the mean flow at that site is 955 cfs (cubic feet per second), the median daily flow is only 59 cfs and the lowest 30-day flow in a year will average less than 1 cfs in 4 out of 10 years on the average. The estimated mean flow on North Boggy Creek near Stringtown is 124 cfs, but the estimated median daily flow is only 3 1/2 cfs. Because of the high variability in streamflow, development of storage by impoundment will be necessary to attain maximum utilization of the available water supplies in this region. The surface waters of the North Boggy Creek basin are of excellent quality, being suitable for municipal, agricultural and most industrial uses. The concentration of the dissolved mineral content is usually about 75 ppm (parts per million) and the hardness about 50 ppm. The water is slightly acidic, with a range of pH values from 6.5 to 7.0. This report gives the estimated average discharge at gaging stations and 3 selected other sites in the basin for the 16-year period October 1938 to September 1954, used as a base period in this report. Duration-of-flow data for selected percentages of the time are shown for the period of observed record on North Boggy and Chickasaw Creeks; similar data are estimated for the base period 1938-54. The basic records in the basin are presented on a monthly and annual basis (through March 1958). For other sites at which discharge measurements have been made, a tabulation of observed discharge is given. These data have been correlated to obtain information on the low-water portion of the duration curves at 2 of the sites. (available as photostat copy only)

Low-flow study for southwest Ohio streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webber, Earl E.; Mayo, Ronald I.

1971-01-01

Low-flow discharges at 60 sites on streams in the Little Miami River, Mill Creek, Great Miami River and Wabash River basins are presented in this report. The average annual minimum flows in cubic feet per second (cfs) for a 7-day period of 10-year frequency and a 1-day period of 30-year frequency are computed for each of the 60 sites.

Variations in organic carbon fluxes from Long Island Sound to the Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlahos, P.; Whitney, M. M.

2017-12-01

Organic carbon balances for the Long Island Sound estuary over the years 2009-2012 are presented to assess the particulate and dissolved organic carbon contributions of the estuary to the adjacent shelf waters with respect to the Delaware and Chesapeake. Observations were coupled to a hydrodynamic model (ROMS) for both seasonal and annual estimates. During stratified summer periods, LIS was consistently a net exporter of OC to the continental shelf. LIS annual net carbon export however, varied with river flow. The heterotrophic or autotrophic nature of LIS also shifted seasonally and inter-annually. During the mass balance analysis period LIS ranged between net OC import from the continental shelf and heterotrophy in the lowest river flow year (2012) and net export of OC and autotrophy in the highest flow year (2011). Analysis suggests that LIS switches from net OC import to export when the annual river inputs exceed 19 km3 yr-1. Applying these thresholds to the annual river flow record suggests that net import occurred in 15% of the last 20 years and that LIS usually is a net exporter of OC (85%). Annually averaged LIS carbon export values based on river flow conditions over the last 20 yr are estimated at 56 ± 64 x 106 km3 yr-1. Analysis also suggests that LIS shifts from net heterotrophic to net autotrophic when annual river flow exceeds 26 km3 yr-1 (35% of the last 20 yr). Net heterotrophic conditions are most common, representing 65% of the last 20 yr.

Assessment of statewide annual streamflow in New Mexico, 1985-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Affinati, Joseph Anthony; Myers, Nathan C.

2015-01-01

The San Francisco River annual flows were relatively high compared to other years in the study in 1985, 1991–93, 1995, and 2005 but were near or below average for the rest of the years of the study. Both reaches on the San Francisco River were gaining reaches for all 29 years of the study.

Annual replenishment of bed material by sediment transport in the Wind River near Riverton, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smalley, M.L.; Emmett, W.W.; Wacker, A.M.

1994-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wyoming Department of Transportation, conducted a study during 1985-87 to determine the annual replenishment of sand and gravel along a point bar in the Wind River near Riverton, Wyoming. Hydraulic- geometry relations determined from streamflow measurements; streamflow characteristics determined from 45 years of record at the study site; and analyses of suspended-sediment, bedload, and bed- material samples were used to describe river transport characteristics and to estimate the annual replenishment of sand and gravel. The Wind River is a perennial, snowmelt-fed stream. Average daily discharge at the study site is about 734 cubic feet per second, and bankfull discharge (recurrence interval about 1.5 years) is about 5,000 cubic feet per second. At bankfull discharge, the river is about 136 feet wide and has an average depth of about 5.5 feet and average velocity of about 6.7 feet per second. Streams slope is about 0.0010 foot per foot. Bed material sampled on the point bar before the 1986 high flows ranged from sand to cobbles, with a median diameter of about 22 millimeters. Data for sediment samples collected during water year 1986 were used to develop regression equations between suspended-sediment load and water discharge and between bedload and water discharge. Average annual suspended-sediment load was computed to be about 561,000 tons per year using the regression equation in combination with flow-duration data. The regression equation for estimating bedload was not used; instead, average annual bedload was computed as 1.5 percent of average annual suspended load about 8,410 tons per year. This amount of bedload material is estimated to be in temporary storage along a reach containing seven riffles--a length of approximately 1 river mile. On the basis of bedload material sampled during the 1986 high flows, about 75 percent (by weight) is sand (2 millimeters in diameter or finer); median particle size is about 0.5 milli- meter. About 20 percent (by weight) is medium gravel to small cobbles--12.7 millimeters (0.5 inch) or coarser. The bedload moves slowly (about 0.03 percent of the water speed) and briefly (about 10 percent of the time). The average travel distance of a median-sized particle is about 1 river mile per year. The study results indicate that the average replenishment rate of bedload material coarser than 12.7 millimeters is about 1,500 to 2,000 tons (less than 1,500 cubic yards) per year. Finer material (0.075 to 6.4 millimeters in diameter) is replen- ishment at about 4,500 to 5,000 cubic yards per year. The total volume of potentially usable material would average about 6,000 cubic yards per year.

Flooding dynamics on the lower Amazon floodplain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudorff, C.; Melack, J. M.; Bates, P. D.

2013-05-01

We analyzed flooding dynamics of a large floodplain lake in the lower reach of the Amazon River for the period between 1995 through 2010. Floodplain inundation was simulated using the LISFLOOD-FP model, which combines one-dimensional river routing with two-dimensional overland flow, and a local hydrological model. Accurate representation of floodplain flows and inundation extent depends on the quality of the digital elevation model (DEM). We combined digital topography (derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) with extensive floodplain echo-sounding data to generate a hydraulically sound DEM. Analysis of daily water balances revealed that the dominant source of inflow alternated seasonally among direct rain and local runoff (October through January), Amazon River (March through August), and seepage (September). As inflows from the Amazon River increase during the rising limb of the hydrograph, regional floodwaters encounter the floodplain partially inundated from local hydrological inputs. At peak flow the floodplain routes, on average, 2.5% of the total discharge for this reach. The falling limb of the hydrograph coincides with the locally dry period, allowing seepage of water stored in sediments to become a dominant source. The average annual inflow from the Amazon River was 58.8 km3 (SD = 33.5), representing more than three thirds (80%) of inputs from all sources, with substantial inter-annual variability. The average annual net export of water from the floodplain to the Amazon River was 7.9 km3 (SD = 2.7).

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft3/s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow.Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells.Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts.Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Occurrence and distribution of fecal indicator bacteria, and physical and chemical indicators of water quality in streams receiving discharge from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport and vicinity, North-Central Texas, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.; Mobley, Craig A.

2009-01-01

This report, done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Dallas/Fort Worth International (DFW) Airport in 2008, describes the occurrence and distribution of fecal indicator bacteria (fecal coliform and Escherichia [E.] coli), and the physical and chemical indicators of water quality (relative to Texas Surface Water Quality Standards), in streams receiving discharge from DFW Airport and vicinity. At sampling sites in the lower West Fork Trinity River watershed during low-flow conditions, geometric mean E. coli counts for five of the eight West Fork Trinity River watershed sampling sites exceeded the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality E. coli criterion, thus not fully supporting contact recreation. Two of the five sites with geometric means that exceeded the contact recreation criterion are airport discharge sites, which here means that the major fraction of discharge at those sites is from DFW Airport. At sampling sites in the Elm Fork Trinity River watershed during low-flow conditions, geometric mean E. coli counts exceeded the geometric mean contact recreation criterion for seven (four airport, three non-airport) of 13 sampling sites. Under low-flow conditions in the lower West Fork Trinity River watershed, E. coli counts for airport discharge sites were significantly different from (lower than) E. coli counts for non-airport sites. Under low-flow conditions in the Elm Fork Trinity River watershed, there was no significant difference between E. coli counts for airport sites and non-airport sites. During stormflow conditions, fecal indicator bacteria counts at the most downstream (integrator) sites in each watershed were considerably higher than counts at those two sites during low-flow conditions. When stormflow sample counts are included with low-flow sample counts to compute a geometric mean for each site, classification changes from fully supporting to not fully supporting contact recreation on the basis of the geometric mean contact recreation criterion. All water temperature measurements at sampling sites in the lower West Fork Trinity River watershed were less than the maximum criterion for water temperature for the lower West Fork Trinity segment. Of the measurements at sampling sites in the Elm Fork Trinity River watershed, 95 percent were less than the maximum criterion for water temperature for the Elm Fork Trinity River segment. All dissolved oxygen concentrations were greater than the minimum criterion for stream segments classified as exceptional aquatic life use. Nearly all pH measurements were within the pH criterion range for the classified segments in both watersheds, except for those at one airport site. For sampling sites in the lower West Fork Trinity River watershed, all annual average dissolved solids concentrations were less than the maximum criterion for the lower West Fork Trinity segment. For sampling sites in the Elm Fork Trinity River, nine of the 13 sites (six airport, three non-airport) had annual averages that exceeded the maximum criterion for that segment. For ammonia, 23 samples from 12 different sites had concentrations that exceeded the screening level for ammonia. Of these 12 sites, only one non-airport site had more than the required number of exceedances to indicate a screening level concern. Stormflow total suspended solids concentrations were significantly higher than low-flow concentrations at the two integrator sites. For sampling sites in the lower West Fork Trinity River watershed, all annual average chloride concentrations were less than the maximum annual average chloride concentration criterion for that segment. For the 13 sampling sites in the Elm Fork Trinity River watershed, one non-airport site had an annual average concentration that exceeded the maximum annual average chloride concentration criterion for that segment.

Historical changes in annual peak flows in Maine and implications for flood-frequency analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2010-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges, culverts, and other structures that are in or near streams (fig. 1 for example), it is necessary to determine the magnitude of peak streamflows such as the 100-year flow. Flood-frequency analyses use statistical methods to compute peak flows for selected recurrence intervals (100 years, for example). The recurrence interval is the average number of years between peak flows that are equal to or greater than a specified peak flow. Floodfrequency analyses are based on annual peak flows at a stream. It has long been assumed that annual peak streamflows are stationary over very long periods of time, except in river basins subject to urbanization, regulation, and other direct human activities. Stationarity is the concept that natural systems fluctuate within an envelope of variability that does not change over time (Milly and others, 2008). Because of the potential effects of global warming on peak flows, the assumption of peak-flow stationarity has recently been questioned (Milly and others, 2008). Maine has many streamgaging stations with 50 to 105 years of recorded annual peak streamflows. This long-term record has been tested for historical flood-frequency stationarity, to provide some insight into future flood frequency (Hodgkins, 2010). This fact sheet, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), provides a partial summary of the results of the study by Hodgkins (2010).

Low-flow characteristics of streams in Ohio through water year 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Straub, David E.

2001-01-01

This report presents selected low-flow and flow-duration characteristics for 386 sites throughout Ohio. These sites include 195 long-term continuous-record stations with streamflow data through water year 1997 (October 1 to September 30) and for 191 low-flow partial-record stations with measurements into water year 1999. The characteristics presented for the long-term continuous-record stations are minimum daily streamflow; average daily streamflow; harmonic mean flow; 1-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day minimum average low flow with 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year recurrence intervals; and 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, 50-, 40-, 30-, 20-, and 10-percent daily duration flows. The characteristics presented for the low-flow partial-record stations are minimum observed streamflow; estimated 1-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day minimum average low flow with 2-, 10-, and 20-year recurrence intervals; and estimated 98-, 95-, 90-, 85- and 80-percent daily duration flows. The low-flow frequency and duration analyses were done for three seasonal periods (warm weather, May 1 to November 30; winter, December 1 to February 28/29; and autumn, September 1 to November 30), plus the annual period based on the climatic year (April 1 to March 31).

Regression method for estimating long-term mean annual ground-water recharge rates from base flow in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.; Thompson, Ronald E.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2008-01-01

A method was developed for making estimates of long-term, mean annual ground-water recharge from streamflow data at 80 streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. The method relates mean annual base-flow yield derived from the streamflow data (as a proxy for recharge) to the climatic, geologic, hydrologic, and physiographic characteristics of the basins (basin characteristics) by use of a regression equation. Base-flow yield is the base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area of the basin, expressed in inches of water basinwide. Mean annual base-flow yield was computed for the period of available streamflow record at continuous streamflow-gaging stations by use of the computer program PART, which separates base flow from direct runoff on the streamflow hydrograph. Base flow provides a reasonable estimate of recharge for basins where streamflow is mostly unaffected by upstream regulation, diversion, or mining. Twenty-eight basin characteristics were included in the exploratory regression analysis as possible predictors of base-flow yield. Basin characteristics found to be statistically significant predictors of mean annual base-flow yield during 1971-2000 at the 95-percent confidence level were (1) mean annual precipitation, (2) average maximum daily temperature, (3) percentage of sand in the soil, (4) percentage of carbonate bedrock in the basin, and (5) stream channel slope. The equation for predicting recharge was developed using ordinary least-squares regression. The standard error of prediction for the equation on log-transformed data was 9.7 percent, and the coefficient of determination was 0.80. The equation can be used to predict long-term, mean annual recharge rates for ungaged basins, providing that the explanatory basin characteristics can be determined and that the underlying assumption is accepted that base-flow yield derived from PART is a reasonable estimate of ground-water recharge rates. For example, application of the equation for 370 hydrologic units in Pennsylvania predicted a range of ground-water recharge from about 6.0 to 22 inches per year. A map of the predicted recharge illustrates the general magnitude and variability of recharge throughout Pennsylvania.

Surface waters of Illinois River basin in Arkansas and Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.

1959-01-01

The estimated runoff from the Illinois River basin of 1,660 square miles has averaged 1,160,000 acre-feet per year during the water years 1938-56, equivalent to an average annual runoff depth of 13.1 inches. About 47 percent of the streamflow is contributed from drainage in Arkansas, where an average of 550,000 acre-ft per year runs off from 755 square miles, 45.5 percent of the total drainage area. The streamflow is highly variable. Twenty-two years of record for Illinois River near Tahlequah, Okla., shows a variation in runoff for the water year 1945 in comparison with 1954 in a ratio of almost 10 to 1. Runoff in 1927 may have exceeded that of 1945, according to records for White River at Beaver, Ark., the drainage basin just east of the Illinois River basin. Variation in daily discharge is suggested by a frequency analysis of low flows at the gaging station near Tahlequah, Okla. The mean flow at that site is 901 cfs (cubic feet per second), the median daily flow is 350 cfs, and the lowest 30-day mean flow in a year probably will be less than 130 cfs half of the time and less than 20 cfs every 10 years on the average. The higher runoff tends to occur in the spring months, March to May, a 3-month period that, on the average, accounts for almost half of the annual flow. High runoff may occur during any month in the year, but in general, the streamflow is the lowest in the summer. The mean monthly flow of Illinois River near Tahlequah, Okla., for September is about 11 percent of that for May. Records show that there is flow throughout the year in Illinois River and its principal tributaries Osage Creek, Flint Creek and Barren Fork. The high variability in streamflow in this region requires the development of storage by impoundment if maximum utilization of the available water supplies is to be attained. For example, a 120-day average low flow of 22 cfs occurred in 1954 at Illinois River near Tahlequah, Okla. To have maintained the flow at 350 cfs, the median daily flow during the 19-year base period, an impoundment at that site would have required a usable storage of 185,000 acre-ft to satisfy this demand during the drought years 1954-1956. The surface waters of the Illinois River basin are excellent quality being suitable for municipal, agriculture and most industrial uses. The average concentration of the dissolved mineral content is about 105 ppm (parts per million) and the hardness about 85 ppm. The water is slightly alkaline, having a range of pH values from 7.2 to 8.0. This report gives the estimated average discharge at gaging stations and approximations of average discharge at the State line for 3 sub-basins during the 19-year period October 1937 to September 1956, used as a base period in this report. Duration-of-flow data for various percentages of the time are shown for the period of observed record at the gaging stations; similar data are estimated for the selected base period. Storage requirements to sustain flow during the recent drought years are given for 3 stations. The streamflow records in the basin are presented on a monthly and annual basis through September 1957; provisional records for 3 stations are included through July 1958 for correlation purposes. Results of discharge measurements are given for miscellaneous sites where low-flow observations have been made. (available as photostat copy only)

Analysis of trends of water quality and streamflow in the Blackstone, Branch, Pawtuxet, and Pawcatuck Rivers, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, 1979 to 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savoie, Jennifer G.; Mullaney, John R.; Bent, Gardner C.

2017-02-21

Trends in long-term water-quality and streamflow data from six water-quality-monitoring stations within three major river basins in Massachusetts and Rhode Island that flow into Narragansett Bay and Little Narragansett Bay were evaluated for water years 1979–2015. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, the Rhode Island Water Resources Board, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, water-quality and streamflow data were evaluated with a Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season smoothing method, which removes the effects of year-to-year variation in water-quality conditions due to variations in streamflow (discharge). Trends in annual mean, annual median, annual maximum, and annual 7-day minimum flows at four continuous streamgages were evaluated by using a time-series smoothing method for water years 1979–2015.Water quality at all monitoring stations changed over the study period. Decreasing trends in flow-normalized nutrient concentrations and loads were observed during the period at most monitoring stations for total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus. Average flow-normalized loads for water years 1979–2015 decreased in the Blackstone River by up to 46 percent in total nitrogen, 17 percent in nitrite plus nitrate, and 69 percent in total phosphorus. The other rivers also had decreasing flow-normalized trends in nutrient concentrations and loads, except for the Pawtuxet River, which had an increasing trend in nitrite plus nitrate. Increasing trends in flow-normalized chloride concentrations and loads were observed during the study period at all of the rivers, with increases of more than 200 percent in the Blackstone River.Small increasing trends in annual mean daily streamflow were observed in 3 of the 4 rivers, with increases of 1.2 to 11 percent; however, the trends were not significant. All 4 rivers had decreases in streamflow for the annual 7-day minimums, but only 3 of the 4 rivers had decreases that were significant (34 to 54 percent). The Branch River had decreasing annual mean daily streamflow (7.5 percent) and the largest decrease in the annual 7-day minimum streamflow. The Blackstone and Pawtuxet Rivers had the largest increases in annual maximum daily flows but had decreases in the annual 7-day minimum flows.

Methods for estimating streamflow at mountain fronts in southern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, S.D.

1994-01-01

The infiltration of streamflow is potential recharge to alluvial-basin aquifers at or near mountain fronts in southern New Mexico. Data for 13 streamflow-gaging stations were used to determine a relation between mean annual stream- flow and basin and climatic conditions. Regression analysis was used to develop an equation that can be used to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of drainage areas and mean annual precipi- tation. The average standard error of estimate for this equation is 46 percent. Regression analysis also was used to develop an equation to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of active- channel width. Measurements of the width of active channels were determined for 6 of the 13 gaging stations. The average standard error of estimate for this relation is 29 percent. Stream- flow estimates made using a regression equation based on channel geometry are considered more reliable than estimates made from an equation based on regional relations of basin and climatic conditions. The sample size used to develop these relations was small, however, and the reported standard error of estimate may not represent that of the entire population. Active-channel-width measurements were made at 23 ungaged sites along the Rio Grande upstream from Elephant Butte Reservoir. Data for additional sites would be needed for a more comprehensive assessment of mean annual streamflow in southern New Mexico.

Simulation of ground-water flow and evaluation of water-management alternatives in the upper Charles River basin, eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.; Walter, Donald A.; Eggleston, John R.; Nimiroski, Mark T.

2002-01-01

Ground water is the primary source of drinking water for towns in the upper Charles River Basin, an area of 105 square miles in eastern Massachusetts that is undergoing rapid growth. The stratified-glacial aquifers in the basin are high yield, but also are thin, discontinuous, and in close hydraulic connection with streams, ponds, and wetlands. Water withdrawals averaged 10.1 million gallons per day in 1989?98 and are likely to increase in response to rapid growth. These withdrawals deplete streamflow and lower pond levels. A study was conducted to develop tools for evaluating water-management alternatives at the regional scale in the basin. Geologic and hydrologic data were compiled and collected to characterize the ground- and surface-water systems. Numerical flow modeling techniques were applied to evaluate the effects of increased withdrawals and altered recharge on ground-water levels, pond levels, and stream base flow. Simulation-optimization methods also were applied to test their efficacy for management of multiple water-supply and water-resource needs. Steady-state and transient ground-water-flow models were developed using the numerical modeling code MODFLOW-2000. The models were calibrated to 1989?98 average annual conditions of water withdrawals, water levels, and stream base flow. Model recharge rates were varied spatially, by land use, surficial geology, and septic-tank return flow. Recharge was changed during model calibration by means of parameter-estimation techniques to better match the estimated average annual base flow; area-weighted rates averaged 22.5 inches per year for the basin. Water withdrawals accounted for about 7 percent of total simulated flows through the stream-aquifer system and were about equal in magnitude to model-calculated rates of ground-water evapotranspiration from wetlands and ponds in aquifer areas. Water withdrawals as percentages of total flow varied spatially and temporally within an average year; maximum values were 12 to 13 percent of total annual flow in some subbasins and of total monthly flow throughout the basin in summer and early fall. Water-management alternatives were evaluated by simulating hypothetical scenarios of increased withdrawals and altered recharge for average 1989?98 conditions with the flow models. Increased withdrawals to maximum State-permitted levels would result in withdrawals of about 15 million gallons per day, or about 50 percent more than current withdrawals. Model-calculated effects of these increased withdrawals included reductions in stream base flow that were greatest (as a percentage of total flow) in late summer and early fall. These reductions ranged from less than 5 percent to more than 60 percent of model-calculated 1989?98 base flow along reaches of the Charles River and major tributaries during low-flow periods. Reductions in base flow generally were comparable to upstream increases in withdrawals, but were slightly less than upstream withdrawals in areas where septic-system return flow was simulated. Increased withdrawals also increased the proportion of wastewater in the Charles River downstream of treatment facilities. The wastewater component increased downstream from a treatment facility in Milford from 80 percent of September base flow under 1989?98 conditions to 90 percent of base flow, and from 18 to 27 percent of September base flow downstream of a treatment facility in Medway. In another set of hypothetical scenarios, additional recharge equal to the transfer of water out of a typical subbasin by sewers was found to increase model-calculated base flows by about 12 percent of model-calculated base flows. Addition of recharge equal to that available from artificial recharge of residential rooftop runoff had smaller effects, augmenting simulated September base flow by about 3 percent. Simulation-optimization methods were applied to an area near Populatic Pond and the confluence of the Mill and Charles Rivers in Franklin,

Modeling the influence of river rehabilitation scenarios on bed material sediment flux in a large river over decadal timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Michael B.; Dunne, Thomas

2006-01-01

A stochastic flood generator and calibrated sediment transport formulae were used to assess the decadal impact of major river rehabilitation strategies on two fraction bed material sediment flux and net storage, first‐order indicators of aquatic riverine habitat, in a large river system. Model boundary conditions were modified to reflect the implementation of three major river rehabilitation strategies being considered in the Sacramento River Valley: gravel augmentation, setting back of levees, and flow alteration. Fifty 30‐year model simulations were used to compute probabilities of the response in sediment flux and net storage to these strategies. Total annual average bed material sediment flux estimates were made at six gauged river cross sections, and ∼60 km reach‐scale sediment budgets were evaluated between them. Gravel augmentation to improve spawning habitat induced gravel accumulation locally and/or downstream, depending on the added mixture. Levee setbacks to recreate the river corridor reduced flow stages for most flows and hence lowered sediment flux. Flow alteration to mimic natural flow regimes systematically decreased total annual average flux, suggesting that high‐magnitude low‐frequency transport events do not affect long‐term trends in bed material flux. The results indicate that each rehabilitation strategy reduces sediment transport in its target reaches and modulates imbalances in total annual bed material sediment budgets at the reach scale. Additional risk analysis is necessary to identify extreme conditions associated with variable hydrology that could affect rehabilitation over decades. Sensitivity analysis suggests that sorting of bed material sediment is the most important determinant of modeled transport and storage patterns.

GIS-aided low flow mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saghafian, B.; Mohammadi, A.

2003-04-01

Most studies involving water resources allocation, water quality, hydropower generation, and allowable water withdrawal and transfer require estimation of low flows. Normally, frequency analysis on at-station D-day low flow data is performed to derive various T-yr return period values. However, this analysis is restricted to the location of hydrometric stations where the flow discharge is measured. Regional analysis is therefore conducted to relate the at-station low flow quantiles to watershed characteristics. This enables the transposition of low flow quantiles to ungauged sites. Nevertheless, a procedure to map the regional regression relations for the entire stream network, within the bounds of the relations, is particularly helpful when one studies and weighs alternative sites for certain water resources project. In this study, we used a GIS-aided procedure for low flow mapping in Gilan province, part of northern region in Iran. Gilan enjoys a humid climate with an average of 1100 mm annual precipitation. Although rich in water resources, the highly populated area is quite dependent on minimum amount of water to sustain the vast rice farming and to maintain required flow discharge for quality purposes. To carry out the low flow analysis, a total of 36 hydrometric stations with sufficient and reliable discharge data were identified in the region. The average area of the watersheds was 250 sq. km. Log Pearson type 3 was found the best distribution for flow durations over 60 days, while log normal fitted well the shorter duration series. Low flows with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 year were then computed. Cluster analysis identified two homogeneous areas. Although various watershed parameters were examined in factor analysis, the results showed watershed area, length of the main stream, and annual precipitation were the most effective low flow parameters. The regression equations were then mapped with the aid of GIS based on flow accumulation maps and the corresponding spatially averaged values of other parameters over the upslope area of all stream pixels exceeding a certain threshold area. Such map clearly shows the spatial variation of low flow quantiles along the stream network and enables the study of low flow profiles along any stream.

Estimates of average annual tributary inflow to the lower Colorado River, Hoover Dam to Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Owen-Joyce, Sandra J.

1987-01-01

Estimates of tributary inflow by basin or area and by surface water or groundwater are presented in this report and itemized by subreaches in tabular form. Total estimated average annual tributary inflow to the Colorado River between Hoover Dam and Mexico, excluding the measured tributaries, is 96,000 acre-ft or about 1% of the 7.5 million acre-ft/yr of Colorado River water apportioned to the States in the lower Colorado River basin. About 62% of the tributary inflow originates in Arizona, 30% in California, and 8% in Nevada. Tributary inflow is a small component in the water budget for the river. Most of the quantities of unmeasured tributary inflow were estimated in previous studies and were based on mean annual precipitation for 1931-60. Because mean annual precipitation for 1951-80 did not differ significantly from that of 1931-60, these tributary inflow estimates are assumed to be valid for use in 1984. Measured average annual runoff per unit drainage area on the Bill Williams River has remained the same. Surface water inflow from unmeasured tributaries is infrequent and is not captured in surface reservoirs in any of the States; it flows to the Colorado River gaging stations. Estimates of groundwater inflow to the Colorad River valley. Average annual runoff can be used in a water budget; although in wet years, runoff may be large enough to affect the calculation of consumptive use and to be estimated from hydrographs for the Colorado River valley are based on groundwater recharge estimates in the bordering areas, which have not significantly changed through time. In most areas adjacent to the Colorado River valley, groundwater pumpage is small and pumping has not significantly affected the quantity of groundwater discharged to the Colorado River valley. In some areas where groundwater pumpage exceeds the quantity of groundwater discharge and water levels have declined, the quantity of discharge probably has decreased and groundwater inflow to the Colorado River valley will eventually be reduced if not stopped completely. Groundwater discharged at springs below Hoover Dam is unused and flows directly to the Colorado River. (Lantz-PTT)

Lower Granite Dam Smolt Monitoring Program, 2005-2006 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mensik, Fred; Rapp, Shawn; Ross, Doug

2007-01-01

The 2005 fish collection season at Lower Granite Dam (LGR) was characterized by average water temperatures, below average flows, above average spill, low levels of debris and the record number of smolts collected compared to the previous five years. With the continued release of unclipped supplementation chinook and steelhead above LGR, we cannot accurately distinguish wild chinook, steelhead, and sockeye/kokanee in the sample. For the purposes of this report we will designate fish as clipped and unclipped. This season a total of 13,030,967 juvenile salmonids were collected at LGR. Of these, 12,099,019 were transported to release sites below Bonneville Dam,more » 12,032,623 by barge and 66,396 by truck. An additional 898,235 fish were bypassed to the river due to over-capacity of the raceways, barges or trucks and for research purposes. This was the first season of summer spill at LGR. Spill was initiated at 12:01am June 20 as directed by the ruling set forth by Judge James Redden of the United States District Court (Order CV 01-640-RE). In addition, the Lower Granite project also conducted a summer spill test alternating spill and spill patterns between spill to the gas cap without the removable spillway weir (RSW) and spill with up to 20 kcfs utilizing the RSW. Because of the forecast low flow this year, most hatchery reared subyearling fall chinook were released up to three weeks early. With the unexpected high flows in late May and early June, more than 90% of the subyearling chinook were collected prior to the initiation of the court ordered summer spill program. Collection number fluctuations reflect river flow and project operations for any given year. For example, low flow years (2001, 2004 and 2005) result in higher collection numbers. Court ordered spill throughout the summer migration will directly affect collection of fall subyearling chinook collection numbers. The editors of this report urge the reader to use caution when comparing fish collection numbers between years, considering both annual river flows and annual project operations, because both affect fish migration and collection.« less

Lower Granite Dam Smolt Monitoring Program, Annual Report 2005-2006.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Menski, Fred

2007-01-01

The 2005 fish collection season at Lower Granite Dam (LGR) was characterized by average water temperatures, below average flows, above average spill, low levels of debris and the record number of smolts collected compared to the previous five years. With the continued release of unclipped supplementation chinook and steelhead above LGR, we cannot accurately distinguish wild chinook, steelhead, and sockeye/kokanee in the sample. For the purposes of this report we will designate fish as clipped and unclipped. This season a total of 13,030,967 juvenile salmonids were collected at LGR. Of these, 12,099,019 were transported to release sites below Bonneville Dam,more » 12,032,623 by barge and 66,396 by truck. An additional 898,235 fish were bypassed to the river due to over-capacity of the raceways, barges or trucks and for research purposes. This was the first season of summer spill at LGR. Spill was initiated at 12:01am June 20 as directed by the ruling set forth by Judge James Redden of the United States District Court (Order CV 01-640-RE). In addition, the Lower Granite project also conducted a summer spill test alternating spill and spill patterns between spill to the gas cap without the removable spillway weir (RSW) and spill with up to 20 kcfs utilizing the RSW. Because of the forecast low flow this year, most hatchery reared subyearling fall chinook were released up to three weeks early. With the unexpected high flows in late May and early June, more than 90% of the subyearling chinook were collected prior to the initiation of the court ordered summer spill program. Collection number fluctuations reflect river flow and project operations for any given year. For example, low flow years (2001, 2004 and 2005) result in higher collection numbers. Court ordered spill throughout the summer migration will directly affect collection of fall subyearling chinook collection numbers. The editors of this report urge the reader to use caution when comparing fish collection numbers between years, considering both annual river flows and annual project operations, because both affect fish migration and collection.« less

Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

2015-12-01

Taiwan experiences significant inland flooding, driven by torrential rainfall from plum rain storms and typhoons during summer and fall. From last 13 to 16 years data, 3,000 buildings were damaged by such floods annually with a loss US$0.41 billion (Water Resources Agency). This long, narrow island nation with mostly hilly/mountainous topography is located at tropical-subtropical zone with annual average typhoon-hit-frequency of 3-4 (Central Weather Bureau) and annual average precipitation of 2502mm (WRA) - 2.5 times of the world's average. Spatial and temporal distributions of countrywide precipitation are uneven, with very high local extreme rainfall intensities. Annual average precipitation is 3000-5000mm in the mountainous regions, 78% of it falls in May-October, and the 1-hour to 3-day maximum rainfall are about 85 to 93% of the world records (WRA). Rivers in Taiwan are short with small upstream areas and high runoff coefficients of watersheds. These rivers have the steepest slopes, the shortest response time with rapid flows, and the largest peak flows as well as specific flood peak discharge (WRA) in the world. RMS has recently developed a countrywide inland flood model for Taiwan, producing hazard return period maps at 1arcsec grid resolution. These can be the basis for evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses. The model is initiated with sub-daily historical meteorological forcings and calibrated to daily discharge observations at about 50 river gauges over the period 2003-2013. Simulations of hydrologic processes, via rainfall-runoff and routing models, are subsequently performed based on a 10000 year set of stochastic forcing. The rainfall-runoff model is physically based continuous, semi-distributed model for catchment hydrology. The 1-D wave propagation hydraulic model considers catchment runoff in routing and describes large-scale transport processes along the river. It also accounts for reservoir storage. Major historical flood events have been successfully simulated along with spatial patterns of flows. Comparison of stochastic discharge statistics w.r.t. observed ones from Hydrological Year Books of Taiwan over all recorded years are also in good agreement.

Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xingjun; Xu, Yao; Wang, Zhaoli

2018-01-01

Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956-2011) and future (2012-2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were assessed and implemented to alleviate water shortages. The negative impacts from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) in the mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin can be avoided through the dynamic control of FLWLs in Danjiangkou Reservoir, under the historical and future RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. However, the effects of adaptation measures are limited due to their own constraints, such as the characteristics of the reservoirs influencing the FLWLs. The utilization of storm water appears necessary to meet future water demand. Overall, the results indicate that the framework for assessing the effects of adaptation measures on water resources allocation might aid water resources management, not only in the study area but also in other places where water availability conditions vary due to climate change and human activities.

Variability in traffic monitoring data : final summary report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-08-01

For highway maintenance and planning purposes, each road segment is characterized by its traffic flow [such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT) and the AADT for each vehicle class], by the weight distribution of vehicles that travel on its roa...

Availability of streamflow for recharge of the basal aquifer in the Pearl Harbor area, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirashima, George Tokusuke

1971-01-01

The Pearl Harbor area is underlain by an extensive basal aquifer that contains large supplies of fresh water. Because of the presence of a cap rock composed of sedimentary material that is less permeable than the basaltic lava of the basal aquifer, seaward movement of ground water is retarded. The cap rock causes the basal water to stand at a high level; thus, the lens of fresh water that floats on sea water is thick. Discharge from the basal ground-water body, which includes pumpage from wells and shafts, averaged 250 million gallons per day during 1931-65. Because the water level in the basal aquifer did not decline progressively, recharge to the ground-water body must have been approximately equal to discharge. Although pumping for agricultural use has decreased since 1931, net ground-water discharge has increased because of a large increase in pumping for urban use. Substitution of ground water for surface water in the irrigation of sugarcane has also contributed to a net increase in ground-water discharge. The development of Mililani Town will further increase discharge. The increase in ground-water discharge may cause an increase in chloride content of the water pumped from wells near the shore of Pearl Harbor unless the increased discharge is balanced by increased recharge to the local aquifer. The aquifer is recharged by direct infiltration and deep percolation of rain, principally in the high forested area, by infiltration and percolation of irrigation water applied in excess of plant requirements, by seepage of water through streambeds, and possibly by ground-water inflow from outside the area. Recharge is greatest in the uplands, where rainfall is heavy and where much infiltration takes place before rainwater collects in the middle and lower reaches of stream channels. Once water collects in and saturates the alluvium of stream channels, additional inflow to the streams will flow out to sea, only slightly decreased by seepage. Average annual direct runoff from the 90-square-mile Pearl Harbor area is 47.27 million gallons per day, or 11.1 inches; this is 13.3 percent of the average annual rainfall (83.3 in.) over the area. Average annual direct runoff in streams at the 800- and 400-foot altitudes is 29 and 38 million gallons per day, respectively. Kipapa Stream has the largest average annual direct runoff at those altitudes--6 and 9 million gallons per day, respectively. Because streams are flashy and have a wide range in discharge, only 60 percent of the average annual runoff can be economically diverted through ditches to recharge areas. The diversion may be increased slightly if reservoirs are used in conjunction with ditches to temporarily detain flows in excess of ditch capacity. The planned irrigation use of some of the perennial flow available in Waikele Stream near sea level will decrease pumping from and increase recharge to the basal aquifer. Suspended-sediment load is mainly silt and clay, and it increases rapidly with increased discharge. Thus, the use of streamflow for artificial recharge poses problems. High flows must be used if recharge is to be effective, but flows must not be so high as to cause clogging of recharge facilities with sediment or woodland debris. Practical tests are needed to determine the advantages and disadvantages of different types of recharge structures, such as a reservoir or basin, large-diameter deep shafts, deep wells, or combinations of all these structures.

Surface water of Beaver Creek Basin, in South-Central Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.; Murphy, J.J.

1962-01-01

Annual discharge from Beaver Creek basin is estimated to have averaged 217,000 acre-feet during a 19-year base period, water years 1938-56, equivalent to an average annual runoff depth of 4.7 inches over the 857 square-mile drainage area. About 55,000 acre-feet per year comes from Little Beaver Creek basin, a tributary drainage of 195 square miles. Yearly streamflow is highly variable. The discharge of Little Beaver Creek near Duncan during 13-year period of record (water years 1949-61) has ranged from 86,530 acre-feet in calendar year 1957 to 4,880 acre-feet in 1956, a ratio of almost 18 to 1. Highest runoff within a year tends to occur in the spring months of May and June, a 2-month period that, on the average, accounts for more than half of the annual discharge of Little Beaver Creek near Duncan. The average monthly runoff during record was lowest in January. Variation in daily streamflow is such that while the average discharge for the 13-year period of record was 50.1 cfs (cubic feet per second), the daily discharge was more than 6 cfs only about half of the time. There was no flow at the site 19 percent of the time during the period. Some base runoff usually exists in the headwaters of Beaver and Little Beaver Creeks, and in the lower reaches of Beaver Creek. Low flow in Cow Creek tends to be sustained by waste water from Duncan, where water use in 1961 averaged 4 million gallons per day. In the remainder of the basin, periods of no flow occur in most years. The surface water of Beaver Creek basin is very hard but in general is usable for municipal, agricultural and industrial purposes. The chemical character of the water is predominantly a calcium, magnesium bicarbonate type of water in the lower three quarters of the basin, except in Cow Creek where oil-field brines induce a distinct sodium, calcium chloride characteristic at low and medium flows. A calcium sulfate type of water occurs in most of the northern part of the basin except in headwater areas underlain by the Rush Springs Sandstone, where quality is similar to that in the lower basin. The report gives an estimate of the average discharge at several sites in Beaver Creek basin for a 19-year base period, October 1937 to September 1956. Duration curves of daily discharge for Little Beaver Creek near Duncan and Beaver Creek near Waurika are shown for the period of record. Monthly and annual discharge records for these gaging stations are presented. The results of 52 discharge measurements at 17 other sites in the basin are tabulated, with 5 groups being plotted as discharge profiles. Storage requirements for regulated discharge at the two gaging stations are shown. (available as photostat copy only)

Low-flow analysis and selected flow statistics representative of 1930-2002 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.

2006-01-01

Five time periods between 1930 and 2002 are identified as having distinct patterns of annual minimum daily mean flows (minimum flows). Average minimum flows increased around 1970 at many streamflow-gaging stations in West Virginia. Before 1930, however, there might have been a period of minimum flows greater than any period identified between 1930 and 2002. The effects of climate variability are probably the principal causes of the differences among the five time periods. Comparisons of selected streamflow statistics are made between values computed for the five identified time periods and values computed for the 1930-2002 interval for 15 streamflow-gaging stations. The average difference between statistics computed for the five time periods and the 1930-2002 interval decreases with increasing magnitude of the low-flow statistic. The greatest individual-station absolute difference was 582.5 percent greater for the 7-day 10-year low flow computed for 1970-1979 compared to the value computed for 1930-2002. The hydrologically based low flows indicate approximately equal or smaller absolute differences than biologically based low flows. The average 1-day 3-year biologically based low flow (1B3) and 4-day 3-year biologically based low flow (4B3) are less than the average 1-day 10-year hydrologically based low flow (1Q10) and 7-day 10-year hydrologic-based low flow (7Q10) respectively, and range between 28.5 percent less and 13.6 percent greater. Seasonally, the average difference between low-flow statistics computed for the five time periods and 1930-2002 is not consistent between magnitudes of low-flow statistics, and the greatest difference is for the summer (July 1-September 30) and fall (October 1-December 31) for the same time period as the greatest difference determined in the annual analysis. The greatest average difference between 1B3 and 4B3 compared to 1Q10 and 7Q10, respectively, is in the spring (April 1-June 30), ranging between 11.6 and 102.3 percent greater. Statistics computed for the individual station's record period may not represent the statistics computed for the period 1930 to 2002 because (1) station records are available predominantly after about 1970 when minimum flows were greater than the average between 1930 and 2002 and (2) some short-term station records are mostly during dry periods, whereas others are mostly during wet periods. A criterion-based sampling of the individual station's record periods at stations was taken to reduce the effects of statistics computed for the entire record periods not representing the statistics computed for 1930-2002. The criterion used to sample the entire record periods is based on a comparison between the regional minimum flows and the minimum flows at the stations. Criterion-based sampling of the available record periods was superior to record-extension techniques for this study because more stations were selected and areal distribution of stations was more widespread. Principal component and correlation analyses of the minimum flows at 20 stations in or near West Virginia identify three regions of the State encompassing stations with similar patterns of minimum flows: the Lower Appalachian Plateaus, the Upper Appalachian Plateaus, and the Eastern Panhandle. All record periods of 10 years or greater between 1930 and 2002 where the average of the regional minimum flows are nearly equal to the average for 1930-2002 are determined as representative of 1930-2002. Selected statistics are presented for the longest representative record period that matches the record period for 77 stations in West Virginia and 40 stations near West Virginia. These statistics can be used to develop equations for estimating flow in ungaged stream locations.

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

Organic compounds and cadmium in the tributaries to the Elizabeth River in New Jersey, October 2008 to November 2008: Phase II of the New Jersey Toxics Reduction Workplan for New York-New Jersey Harbor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonin, Jennifer L.

2010-01-01

Samples of surface water and suspended sediment were collected from the two branches that make up the Elizabeth River in New Jersey - the West Branch and the Main Stem - from October to November 2008 to determine the concentrations of selected chlorinated organic and inorganic constituents. The sampling and analyses were conducted as part of Phase II of the New York-New Jersey Harbor Estuary Plan-Contaminant Assessment and Reduction Program (CARP), which is overseen by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Phase II of the New Jersey Workplan was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey to define upstream tributary and point sources of contaminants in those rivers sampled during Phase I work, with special emphasis on the Passaic and Elizabeth Rivers. This portion of the Phase II study was conducted on the two branches of the Elizabeth River, which were previously sampled during July and August of 2003 at low-flow conditions. Samples were collected during 2008 from the West Branch and Main Stem of the Elizabeth River just upstream from their confluence at Hillside, N.J. Both tributaries were sampled once during low-flow discharge conditions and once during high-flow discharge conditions using the protocols and analytical methods that were used in the initial part of Phase II of the Workplan. Grab samples of streamwater also were collected at each site and were analyzed for cadmium, suspended sediment, and particulate organic carbon. The measured concentrations, along with available historical suspended-sediment and stream-discharge data were used to estimate average annual loads of suspended sediment and organic compounds in the two branches of the Elizabeth River. Total suspended-sediment loads for 1975 to 2000 were estimated using rating curves developed from historical U.S. Geological Survey suspended-sediment and discharge data, where available. Concentrations of suspended-sediment-bound polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the Main Stem and the West Branch of the Elizabeth River during low-flow conditions were 534 ng/g (nanograms per gram) and 1,120 ng/g, respectively, representing loads of 27 g/yr (grams per year) and 416 g/yr, respectively. These loads were estimated using contaminant concentrations during low flow, and the assumed 25-year average discharge, and 25-year average suspended-sediment concentration. Concentrations of suspended-sediment-bound PCBs in the Main Stem and the West Branch of the Elizabeth River during high-flow conditions were 3,530 ng/g and 623 ng/g, respectively, representing loads of 176 g/yr and 231 g/yr, respectively. These loads were estimated using contaminant concentrations during high-flow conditions, the assumed 25-year average discharge, and 25-year average suspended-sediment concentration. Concentrations of suspended-sediment-bound polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-difuran compounds (PCDD/PCDFs) during low-flow conditions were 2,880 pg/g (picograms per gram) and 5,910 pg/g in the Main Stem and West Branch, respectively, representing average annual loads of 0.14 g/yr and 2.2 g/yr, respectively. Concentrations of suspended-sediment-bound PCDD/PCDFs during high-flow conditions were 40,900 pg/g and 12,400 pg/g in the Main Stem and West Branch, respectively, representing average annual loads of 2.05 g/yr and 4.6 g/yr, respectively. Total toxic equivalency (TEQ) loads (sum of PCDD/PCDF and PCB TEQs) were 3.1 mg/yr (milligrams per year) (as 2, 3, 7, 8-TCDD) in the Main Stem and 28 mg/yr in the West Branch during low-flow conditions. Total TEQ loads (sum of PCDD/PCDFs and PCBs) were 27 mg/yr (as 2, 3, 7, 8-TCDD) in the Main Stem and 32 mg/yr in the West Branch during high-flow conditions. All of these load estimates, however, are directly related to the assumed annual discharge for the two branches. Long-term measurement of stream discharge and suspended-sediment concentrations would be needed to verify these loads. On the basis of the loads cal

Groundwater recharge in Wisconsin--Annual estimates for 1970-99 using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2011-01-01

The groundwater component of streamflow is important because it is indicative of the sustained flow of a stream during dry periods, is often of better quality, and has a smaller range of temperatures, than surface contributions to streamflow. All three of these characteristics are important to the health of aquatic life in a stream. If recharge to the aquifers is to be preserved or enhanced, it is important to understand the present partitioning of total streamflow into base flow and stormflow. Additionally, an estimate of groundwater recharge is important for understanding the flows within a groundwater system-information important for water availability/sustainability or other assessments. The U.S. Geological Survey operates numerous continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (Hirsch and Norris, 2001), which can be used to provide estimates of average annual base flow. In addition to these continuous record sites, Gebert and others (2007) showed that having a few streamflow measurements in a basin can appreciably reduce the error in a base-flow estimate for that basin. Therefore, in addition to the continuous-record gaging stations, a substantial number of low-flow partial-record sites (6 to 15 discharge measurements) and miscellaneous-measurement sites (1 to 3 discharge measurements) that were operated during 1964-90 throughout the State were included in this work to provide additional insight into spatial distribution of annual base flow and, in turn, groundwater recharge.

Characterization of suspended solids and total phosphorus loadings from small watersheds in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Danz, Mari E.; Corsi, Steven R.; Graczyk, David J.; Bannerman, Roger T.

2010-01-01

Knowledge of the daily, monthly, and yearly distribution of contaminant loadings and streamflow can be critical for the successful implementation and evaluation of water-quality management practices. Loading data for solids (suspended sediment and total suspended solids) and total phosphorus and streamflow data for 23 watersheds were summarized for four ecoregions of Wisconsin: the Driftless Area Ecoregion, the Northern Lakes and Forests Ecoregion, the North Central Hardwoods Ecoregion, and the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains Ecoregion. The Northern Lakes and Forests and the North Central Hardwoods Ecoregions were combined into one region for analysis due to a lack of sufficient data in each region. Urban watersheds, all located in the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains, were analyzed separately from rural watersheds as the Rural Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region and the Urban Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region. Results provide information on the distribution of loadings and streamflow between base flow and stormflow, the timing of loadings and streamflow throughout the year, and information regarding the number of days in which the majority of the annual loading is transported. The average contribution to annual solids loading from stormflow periods for the Driftless Area Ecoregion was 84 percent, the Northern Lakes and Forests/North Central Hardwoods region was 71 percent, the Rural Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region was 70 percent, and the Urban Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region was 90 percent. The average contributions to annual total phosphorus loading from stormflow periods were 72, 49, 61, and 76 percent for each of the respective regions. The average contributions to annual streamflow from stormflow periods are 20, 23, 31, and 50 percent for each of the respective regions. In all regions, the most substantial loading contributions for solids were in the late winter (February through March), spring (April through May), and early summer (June through July), with fall (October through November) and early winter (December through January) contributing the smallest loadings. The Northern Lakes and Forests/North Central Hardwoods region had some substantial loading in September. There was a similar pattern for total phosphorus loading in all regions, with the pattern somewhat less pronounced in urban watersheds. As with the loading results, average monthly streamflow values were greatest in late winter, spring, and early summer, with the lowest values typically in fall and early winter. Loading contributions were greater from stormflow than from base flow in all instances, except total phosphorus in the Northern Lakes and Forests/North Central Hardwoods region, which had equal or greater base-flow contribution for several months. Base flow constituted a greater percentage of the total streamflow than stormflow in all rural watersheds for all regions. Only a few storms each year dominated the annual loading totals for solids and total phosphorus. When daily loading values were ranked for the year, all regions reached 50 percent of the annual solids loading in the 5 highest loading days and nearly 50 percent of the annual total phosphorus loading in the 14 highest loading days.

Long-term changes in the hydroclimatic characteristics in the Baikal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voropay, N. N.; Kichigina, N. V.

2018-01-01

Since the end of the 19th century, global air temperature has been increasing. The period after 1976 is called the period of the most intensive warming. In Russia, the average annual air temperature rises at a rate of + 0.43 ° C / 10 years. The change of precipitation over the last 50-60 years on average in Russia is not significant. In the Baikal region, precipitation increase during the warm period (10-11%) and decrease during the cold period (4%). It is reflected on hydrological regime and the factors of river flow formation. The regional features of the hydrological regime dynamics of the Baikal region against the background of climate change are considered. Groups of the rivers with similar alternations of low water and high-water periods are allocated. Trends in runoff are analyzed. The increase in air temperature leads to intra annual redistribution of river flow. The majority of statistically significant trends of river run off are observed during the cold period of year.

Hydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Tooele Valley ground-water basin, Tooele County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stolp, Bernard J.; Brooks, Lynette E.

2009-01-01

Ground water is the sole source of drinking water within Tooele Valley. Transition from agriculture to residential land and water use necessitates additional understanding of water resources. The ground-water basin is conceptualized as a single interconnected hydrologic system consisting of the consolidated-rock mountains and adjoining unconsolidated basin-fill valleys. Within the basin fill, unconfined conditions exist along the valley margins and confined conditions exist in the central areas of the valleys. Transmissivity of the unconsolidated basin-fill aquifer ranges from 1,000 to 270,000 square feet per day. Within the consolidated rock of the mountains, ground-water flow largely is unconfined, though variability in geologic structure, stratigraphy, and lithology has created some areas where ground-water flow is confined. Hydraulic conductivity of the consolidated rock ranges from 0.003 to 100 feet per day. Ground water within the basin generally moves from the mountains toward the central and northern areas of Tooele Valley. Steep hydraulic gradients exist at Tooele Army Depot and near Erda. The estimated average annual ground-water recharge within the basin is 82,000 acre-feet per year. The primary source of recharge is precipitation in the mountains; other sources of recharge are irrigation water and streams. Recharge from precipitation was determined using the Basin Characterization Model. Estimated average annual ground-water discharge within the basin is 84,000 acre-feet per year. Discharge is to wells, springs, and drains, and by evapotranspiration. Water levels at wells within the basin indicate periods of increased recharge during 1983-84 and 1996-2000. During these periods annual precipitation at Tooele City exceeded the 1971-2000 annual average for consecutive years. The water with the lowest dissolved-solids concentrations exists in the mountain areas where most of the ground-water recharge occurs. The principal dissolved constituents are calcium and bicarbonate. Dissolved-solids concentration increases in the central and northern parts of Tooele Valley, at the distal ends of the ground-water flow paths. Increased concentration is due mainly to greater amounts of sodium and chloride. Deuterium and oxygen-18 values indicate water recharged primarily from precipitation occurs throughout the ground-water basin. Ground water with the highest percentage of recharge from irrigation exists along the eastern margin of Tooele Valley, indicating negligible recharge from the adjacent consolidated rock. Tritium and tritiogenic helium-3 concentrations indicate modern water exists along the flow paths originating in the Oquirrh Mountains between Settlement and Pass Canyons and extending between the steep hydraulic gradient areas at Tooele Army Depot and Erda. Pre-modern water exists in areas east of Erda and near Stansbury Park. Using the change in tritium along the flow paths originating in the Oquirrh Mountains, a first-order estimate of average linear ground-water velocity for the general area is roughly 2 to 5 feet per day. A numerical ground-water flow model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Tooele Valley ground-water basin and to test the conceptual understanding of the ground-water system. Simulating flow in consolidated rock allows recharge and withdrawal from wells in or near consolidated rock to be simulated more accurately. In general, the model accurately simulates water levels and water-level fluctuations and can be considered an adequate tool to help determine the valley-wide effects on water levels of additional ground-water withdrawal and changes in water use. The simulated increase in storage during a projection simulation using 2003 withdrawal rates and average recharge indicates that repeated years of average precipitation and recharge conditions do not completely restore the system after multiple years of below-normal precipitation. In the similar case where precipitation is 90

Magnitude and frequency of low flows in the Suwannee River Water Management District, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giese, G.L.; Franklin, M.A.

1996-01-01

Low-flow frequency statistics for 20 gaging stations having at least 10 years of continuous record and 31 other stations having less than 10 years of continu ous record or a series of at least two low- flow measurements are presented for unregulated streams in the Suwannee River Water Management District in north-central Florida. Statistics for the 20 continuous-record stations included are the annual and monthly minimum consecutive-day average low- flow magnitudes for 1, 3, 7, 14, and 30 consecutive days for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, and, for some long-term stations, 50 years, based on records available through the 1994 climatic year.Only theannual statistics are given for the 31 other stations; these are for the 7- and 30-consecutive day periods only and for recurrence intervals of 2 and 10 years only. Annual low-flow frequency statistics range from zero for many small streams to 5,500 cubic feet per second for the annual 30- consecutive-day average flow with a recurrenceinterval of 2 years for the Suwannee River near Wilcox (station 02323500). Monthly low-flow frequency statistics range from zero for many small streams to 13,800 cubic feet per second for the minimum 30-consecutive-day average flow with a 2-year recurrence interval for the month of March for the same station. Generally, low-flow characteristics of streams in the Suwannee River Water Management District are controlled by climatic, topographic, and geologic fac tors. The carbonate Floridan aquifer system underlies, or is at the surface of, the entire District. The terrane's karstic nature results in manysinkholes and springs. In some places, springs may contribute greatly to low streamflow and the contributing areas of such springs may include areasoutside the presumed surface drainage area of the springs. In other places, water may enter sinkholes within a drainage basin, then reappear in springs downstream from a gage. Many of the smaller streams in the District go dry or have no flow forseveral months in many years. In addition to the low-flow statistics, four synoptic low-flow measurement surveys were conducted on 161 sites during 1990, 1995, and 1996. Themeasurements were made to provide "snapshots" of flow conditions of streams throughout the Suwannee River Water Management District. Magnitudes of low flows during the 1990 series of measurements were in the range associated withminimum 7-consecutive-day 50-year recurrence interval to the minimum 7-consecutive-day 20-year recurrence interval, except in Taylor and Dixie Counties, where the magnitudes ranged from the minimum 7-consecutive-day 5-year flow level to the7-consecutive-day 2-year flow level. The magnitudes were all greater than the minimum 7- consecutive-day 2-year flow level during 1995 and 1996. Observations of no flow were recorded at many of the sites for all four series of measurements.

Monitoring urban impacts on suspended sediment, trace element, and nutrient fluxes within the City of Atlanta, Georgia, USA: Program design, methodological considerations, and initial results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horowitz, A.J.; Elrick, K.A.; Smith, J.J.

2008-01-01

Atlanta, Georgia (City of Atlanta, COA), is one of the most rapidly growing urban areas in the US. Beginning in 2003, the US Geological Survey established a long-term water-quantity/quality monitoring network for the COA. The results obtained during the first 2 years have provided insights into the requirements needed to determine the extent of urban impacts on water quality, especially in terms of estimating the annual fluxes of suspended sediment, trace/major elements, and nutrients. During 2004/2005, suspended sediment fluxes from the City of Atlanta (COA) amounted to about 150 000 t year-1; ??? 94% of the transport occurred in conjunction with storm-flow, which also accounted for ??? 65% of the annual discharge. Typically, storm-flow averaged ??? 20% of theyear. Normally, annual suspended sediment fluxes are determined by summing daily loads based on a single calculation step using mean-daily discharge and a single rating curve-derived suspended sediment concentration. Due to the small and 'flashy' nature of the COAs streams, this approach could produce underestimates ranging from 25% to 64%. Accurate estimates (?? 15%) require calculation time-steps as short as every 2-3 h. Based on annual median base-flow/storm-flow chemical concentrations, the annual fluxes of ??? 75% of trace elements (e.g. Cu, Pb, Zn), major elements (e.g. Fe, Al), and total P occur in association with suspended sediment; in turn, ??? 90% of the transport of these constituents occur in conjunction with storm-flow. As such, base-flow sediment-associated and dissolved contributions represent relatively insignificant portions of the total annual load. An exception is total N, whose sediment-associated fluxes range from 50% to 60%; even so, storm-related transport typically exceeds 80%. Hence, in urban environments, non-point-source appear to be the dominant contributors to the fluxes of these constituents.

Some relations between streamflow characteristics and the environment in the Delaware River region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hely, A.G.; Olmsted, F.H.

1963-01-01

Streamflow characteristics are determined by a large number of factors of the meteorological and terrestrial environments. Because of lack of quantitative data to describe some of the factors and complex interrelations among them, complete analysis of the relations between streamflow and the various environmental factors is impossible. However, certain simplifying assumptions and generalizations made possible a partial analysis for the Delaware River region. For relations involving average runoff or low-flow parameters, average annual precipitation was assumed to be the principal meteorological factor, and geology (a complex of many factors) was assumed to be the principal terrestrial influence, except for that of basin size which was largely eliminated by expression of discharge in terms of unit area. As a first approximation, physiographic units were used as a basis for classifying the geology. Relations between flow parameters and precipitation are fairly well defined for some physiographic units, but not for those in which the geology varies markedly or the areal variation in average precipitation is very small. These relations provide a basis for adjusting the flow parameters to reduce or eliminate the effects of areal variations in precipitation and increase their significance in studies of the effects of terrestrial characteristics. An investigation of the residual effect of basin size (the effect remaining when discharge is expressed in terms of unit area) on relations between flow parameters and average precipitation indicates that such effect is negligible, except for very large differences in area. Parameters that are derived from base-flow recession curves and are related to a common discharge per unit area have inherent advantages as indicators of effects of terrestrial characteristics of basins, because the.y are independent of areal variations in average annual precipitation. Winter base-flow parameters are also practically independent of the effects of evapotranspiration from ground water. However, in many parts of the region these advantages are reduced or nullified by the difficulties of defining base-flow recession curves, particularly winter curves, with sufficient accuracy. In the absence of suitable base-flow recession data and a suitable basis for adjusting parameters, the ratio of the discharge equaled or exceeded 90 percent of the time to the average discharge (Qtt/Qa), or a similar duration parameter, probably is the best indicator of the influence of terrestrial characteristics, although the ratio may vary somewhat with average precipitation. In a part of the region where geologic differences are large and areal variations in average precipitation are small, values of Qm/Qa for each major geologic unit were determined from streamflow records. From these values and the percentage of area represented by each unit, a ratio for each gaging station was computed. Comparison of these computed results with the observed results indicates that nearly all of the variation in the ratio is associated with variation in geology. The investigation indicates that the original assumptions are correct; average precipitation is the principal meteorological influence and geology is the principal terrestrial influence. Together these two factors account for a very large proportion of the variation in average runoff and low-flow characteristics

Aquifer-test results, direction of ground-water flow, and 1984-90 annual ground-water pumpage for irrigation, lower Big Lost River Valley, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassick, M.D.; Jones, M.L.

1992-01-01

The study area (see index map of Idaho), part of the Big Lost River drainage basin, is at the northern side of the eastern Snake River Plain. The lower Big Lost River Valley extends from the confluence of Antelope Creek and the Big Lost River to about 4 mi south of Arco and encompasses about 145 mi2 (see map showing water-level contours). The study area is about 18 mi long and, at its narrowest, 4 mi wide. Arco, Butte City, and Moore, with populations of 1,016, 59, and 190, respectively, in 1990, are the only incorporated towns. The entire study area, except the extreme northwestern part, is in Butte City. The study area boundary is where alluvium and colluvium pinch out and abut against the White Knob Mountains (chiefly undifferentiated sedimentary rock with lesser amounts of volcanic rock) on the west and the Lost River Range (chiefly sedimentary rock) on the east. Gravel and sand in the valley fill compose the main aquifer. The southern boundary is approximately where Big Lost River valley fill intercalates with or abuts against basalt of the Snake River Group. Spring ground-water levels and flow in the Big Lost River depend primarily on temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation within the entire drainage basin. Periods of abundant water supply and water shortages are, therefore, related to the amount of annual precipitation. Surface reservoir capacity in the valley (Mackay Reservoir, about 20 mi northwest of Moore) is only 20 percent of the average annual flow of the Big Lost River (Crosthwaite and others, 1970, p. 3). Stored surface water is generally unavailable for carryover from years of abundant water supply to help relieve drought conditions in subsequent years. Many farmers have drilled irrigation wells to supplement surface-water supplies and to increase irrigated acreage. Average annual flow of the Big Lost River below Mackay Reservoir near Mackay (gaging station 13127000, not shown) in water years 1905, 1913-14, and 1920-90 was about 224,600 acre-ft; average annual flow of the Big Lost River near Arco (gaging station 13132500; see map showing water-level contours) in water years 1947-61, 1967-80, and 1983-90 was about 79,000 acre-ft (Harenberg and others, 1991, p. 254-255). Moore Canal and East Side Ditch divert water from the Big Lost River at the Moore Diversion, 3 mi north of Moore (see map showing water-level contours) and supply water for irrigation near the margins of the valley. When water supply is average or greater, water in the Big Lost River flows through the study area and onto the Snake River Plain, where it evaporates or infiltrates into the Snake River Plain aquifer. When water supply is below average, water in the Big Lost River commonly does not reach Arco; rather, it is diverted for irrigation in the interior of the valley, evaporates, or infiltrates to the valley-fill aquifer. This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, to collect hydrologic data needed to help address water-supply problems in the Big Lost River Valley. Work involved (1) field inventory of 81 wells, including 46 irrigation wells; (2) measurement of water levels in 154 wells in March 1991; (3) estimation of annual ground-water pumpage for irrigation from 1984 through 1990; and (4) analysis of results of an aquifer test conducted southwest of Moore. All data obtained during this study may be inspected at the U.S. Geological Survey, Idaho District office, Boise.

Hydrologic analysis of the proposed Badger-Beaver Creeks Artificial-Recharge Project : Morgan County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Alan W.

1980-01-01

A hydrologic analysis of the proposed Badger-Beaver Creeks artificial-recharge project in Morgan County, Colo., was made with the aid of three digital computer models: A canal-distribution model, a ground-water flow model, and a stream-aquifer model. Statistical summaries of probable diversions from the South Platte River based on a 27-year period of historical flows indicate that an average-annual diversion of 96,000 acre-feet and a median-annual diversion of 43,000 acre-feet would be available. Diversions would sustain water in ponds for waterfowl habitat for an average of about five months per year, with a miximum pond surface area of about 300 acres with the median diversions and a maximum pond surface area of about 1,250 acres at least one-half of the years with the historic diversions. If the annual diversion were 43,000 acre-feet, recharge to the two alluvial aquifers would raise water levels sufficiently to create flowing streams in the channels of Beaver and Badger Creeks while allowing an increase in current ground-water pumping. The only area of significant waterlogging would be along the proposed delivery canal on the west edge of Badger Creek valley. If the total water available were diverted, the aquifer system could not transmit the water fast enough to the irrigation areas to avoid considerable waterlogging in the recharge areas. The impact of the proposed project on the South Platte River basin would be minimal once the ground-water system attained steady-state conditions, but that may take decades with a uniform diversion of the 43,000 acre-feet annually. (USGS)

Low-head hydropower assessment of the Brazilian State of São Paulo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artan, Guleid A.; Cushing, W. Matthew; Mathis, Melissa L.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2014-01-01

This study produced a comprehensive estimate of the magnitude of hydropower potential available in the streams that drain watersheds entirely within the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Because a large part of the contributing area is outside of São Paulo, the main stem of the Paraná River was excluded from the assessment. Potential head drops were calculated from the Digital Terrain Elevation Data,which has a 1-arc-second resolution (approximately 30-meter resolution at the equator). For the conditioning and validation of synthetic stream channels derived from the Digital Elevation Model datasets, hydrography data (in digital format) supplied by the São Paulo State Department of Energy and the Agência Nacional de Águas were used. Within the study area there were 1,424 rain gages and 123 streamgages with long-term data records. To estimate average yearly streamflow, a hydrologic regionalization system that divides the State into 21 homogeneous basins was used. Stream segments, upstream areas, and mean annual rainfall were estimated using geographic information systems techniques. The accuracy of the flows estimated with the regionalization models was validated. Overall, simulated streamflows were significantly correlated with the observed flows but with a consistent underestimation bias. When the annual mean flows from the regionalization models were adjusted upward by 10 percent, average streamflow estimation bias was reduced from -13 percent to -4 percent. The sum of all the validated stream reach mean annual hydropower potentials in the 21 basins is 7,000 megawatts (MW). Hydropower potential is mainly concentrated near the Serra do Mar mountain range and along the Tietê River. The power potential along the Tietê River is mainly at sites with medium and high potentials, sites where hydropower has already been harnessed. In addition to the annual mean hydropower estimates, potential hydropower estimates with flow rates with exceedance probabilities of 40 percent, 60 percent, and 90 percent were made.

Estimating AADT from combined air photos and ground based data : system design, prototyping, and testing.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-15

Average annual daily traffic (AADT) is perhaps the most fundamental measure of traffic flow. The data used to produce AADT estimates are largely collected by in-highway traffic counters operated by traffic monitoring crews who must cover thousands of...

Updating estimates of low streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, A. G.; Archfield, S. A.; Hirsch, R. M.; Vogel, R. M.; Kiang, J. E.; Dudley, R. W.

2017-12-01

Given evidence of both increasing and decreasing trends in low flows in many streams, methods are needed to update estimators of low flow statistics used in water resources management. One such metric is the 10-year annual low-flow statistic (7Q10) calculated as the annual minimum seven-day streamflow which is exceeded in nine out of ten years on average. Historical streamflow records may not be representative of current conditions at a site if environmental conditions are changing. We present a new approach to frequency estimation under nonstationary conditions that applies a stationary nonparametric quantile estimator to a subset of the annual minimum flow record. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were used to evaluate this approach across a range of trend and no trend scenarios. Relative to the standard practice of using the entire available streamflow record, use of a nonparametric quantile estimator combined with selection of the most recent 30 or 50 years for 7Q10 estimation were found to improve accuracy and reduce bias. Benefits of data subset selection approaches were greater for higher magnitude trends annual minimum flow records with lower coefficients of variation. A nonparametric trend test approach for subset selection did not significantly improve upon always selecting the last 30 years of record. At 174 stream gages in the Chesapeake Bay region, 7Q10 estimators based on the most recent 30 years of flow record were compared to estimators based on the entire period of record. Given the availability of long records of low streamflow, using only a subset of the flow record ( 30 years) can be used to update 7Q10 estimators to better reflect current streamflow conditions.

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan

2017-03-01

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by midcentury and -35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at midcentury and -55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.