Mitigation Study. Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, and Vicinity. Hurricane Protection Project.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

the reduction of the photic zone. Reductions in plankton populations are possible as a result of clumping and flocculation. Phytoplankton and algae ...from the wetland preservation and dike construction. Temporary turbidity and a slight loss of benthic productivity would occur during construction of...construction (average annual acres) and the estimated importance of the nearshore lake habitat and benthic food chain to sport fish production (Rogillio

Association between age-related reductions in testosterone and risk of prostate cancer-An analysis of patients' data with prostatic diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Kai; Chen, Xinguang; Bird, Victoria Y; Gerke, Travis A; Manini, Todd M; Prosperi, Mattia

2017-11-01

The relationship between serum total testosterone and prostate cancer (PCa) risk is controversial. The hypothesis that faster age-related reduction in testosterone is linked with increased PCa risk remains untested. We conducted our study at a tertiary-level hospital in southeast of the USA, and derived data from the Medical Registry Database of individuals that were diagnosed of any prostate-related disease from 2001 to 2015. Cases were those diagnosed of PCa and had one or more measurements of testosterone prior to PCa diagnosis. Controls were those without PCa and had one or more testosterone measurements. Multivariable logistic regression models for PCa risk of absolute levels (one-time measure and 5-year average) and annual change in testosterone were respectively constructed. Among a total of 1,559 patients, 217 were PCa cases, and neither one-time measure nor 5-year average of testosterone was found to be significantly associated with PCa risk. Among the 379 patients with two or more testosterone measurements, 27 were PCa cases. For every 10 ng/dL increment in annual reduction of testosterone, the risk of PCa would increase by 14% [adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.25]. Compared to patients with a relatively stable testosterone, patients with an annual testosterone reduction of more than 30 ng/dL had 5.03 [95% CI: 1.53, 16.55] fold increase in PCa risk. This implies a faster age-related reduction in, but not absolute level of serum total testosterone as a risk factor for PCa. Further longitudinal studies are needed to confirm this finding. © 2017 UICC.

Antiretroviral treatment-based cost saving interventions may offset expenses for new patients and earlier treatment start.

PubMed

Angeletti, C; Pezzotti, P; Antinori, A; Mammone, A; Navarra, A; Orchi, N; Lorenzini, P; Mecozzi, A; Ammassari, A; Murachelli, S; Ippolito, G; Girardi, E

2014-03-01

Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has become the main driver of total costs of caring for persons living with HIV (PLHIV). The present study estimated the short/medium-term cost trends in response to the recent evolution of national guidelines and regional therapeutic protocols for cART in Italy. We developed a deterministic mathematical model that was calibrated using epidemic data for Lazio, a region located in central Italy with about six million inhabitants. In the Base Case Scenario, the estimated number of PLHIV in the Lazio region increased over the period 2012-2016 from 14 414 to 17 179. Over the same period, the average projected annual cost for treating the HIV-infected population was €147.0 million. An earlier cART initiation resulted in a rise of 2.3% in the average estimated annual cost, whereas an increase from 27% to 50% in the proportion of naïve subjects starting cART with a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen resulted in a reduction of 0.3%. Simplification strategies based on NNRTIs co-formulated in a single tablet regimen and protease inhibitor/ritonavir-boosted monotherapy produced an overall reduction in average annual costs of 1.5%. A further average saving of 3.3% resulted from the introduction of generic antiretroviral drugs. In the medium term, cost saving interventions could finance the increase in costs resulting from the inertial growth in the number of patients requiring treatment and from the earlier treatment initiation recommended in recent guidelines. © 2013 British HIV Association.

THE ACID RAIN NOX PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

Between 350,000 and 400,000 tons of annual NOx emissions have been eliminated as a result of Phase I of the Acid Rain NOx Program. As expected. the utilities have chosen emissions averaging as the primary compliance option. This reflects that, in general, NO x reductions have ...

Colorectal Cancer Screening in Average Risk Populations: Evidence Summary.

PubMed

Tinmouth, Jill; Vella, Emily T; Baxter, Nancy N; Dubé, Catherine; Gould, Michael; Hey, Amanda; Ismaila, Nofisat; McCurdy, Bronwen R; Paszat, Lawrence

2016-01-01

Introduction. The objectives of this systematic review were to evaluate the evidence for different CRC screening tests and to determine the most appropriate ages of initiation and cessation for CRC screening and the most appropriate screening intervals for selected CRC screening tests in people at average risk for CRC. Methods. Electronic databases were searched for studies that addressed the research objectives. Meta-analyses were conducted with clinically homogenous trials. A working group reviewed the evidence to develop conclusions. Results. Thirty RCTs and 29 observational studies were included. Flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) prevented CRC and led to the largest reduction in CRC mortality with a smaller but significant reduction in CRC mortality with the use of guaiac fecal occult blood tests (gFOBTs). There was insufficient or low quality evidence to support the use of other screening tests, including colonoscopy, as well as changing the ages of initiation and cessation for CRC screening with gFOBTs in Ontario. Either annual or biennial screening using gFOBT reduces CRC-related mortality. Conclusion. The evidentiary base supports the use of FS or FOBT (either annual or biennial) to screen patients at average risk for CRC. This work will guide the development of the provincial CRC screening program.

Rainier Mesa CAU Infiltration Model using INFILv3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levitt, Daniel G.; Kwicklis, Edward M.

The outline of this presentation are: (1) Model Inputs - DEM, Precipitation, Air temp, Soil props, Surface geology, Vegetation; (2) Model Pre-processing - Runoff Routing and sinks, Slope and Azimuth, Soil Ksat reduction with slope (to mitigate bathtub ring), Soil-Bedrock Interface permeabilities; (3) Model Calibration - ET using PEST, Chloride mass balance data, Streamflow using PEST; (4) Model Validation - Streamflow data not used for calibration; (5) Uncertainty Analysis; and (6) Results. Conclusions are: (1) Average annual infiltration rates =11 to 18 mm/year for RM domain; (2) Average annual infiltration rates = 7 to 11 mm/year for SM domain; (3)more » ET = 70% of precipitation for both domains; (4) Runoff = 8-9% for RM; and 22-24% for SM - Apparently high average runoff is caused by the truncation of the lowerelevation portions of watersheds where much of the infiltration of runoff waters would otherwise occur; (5) Model results are calibrated to measured ET, CMB data, and streamflow observations; (6) Model results are validated using streamflow observations discovered after model calibration was complete; (7) Use of soil Ksat reduction with slope to mitigate bathtub ring was successful (based on calibration results); and (8) Soil-bedrock K{_}interface is innovative approach.« less

Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease in the Americas - Will the Goal of a Decline of "25% by 2025" be Met?

PubMed

Ordunez, Pedro; Prieto-Lara, Elisa; Pinheiro Gawryszewski, Vilma; Hennis, Anselm J M; Cooper, Richard S

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the underlying cause 1.6 million deaths per year in the Americas, accounting for 30% of total mortality and 38% of by non-communicable deaths diseases (NCDs). A 25% reduction in premature mortality due four main NCDs was targeted by the 2011 High-level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of NCDs. While overall CVD mortality fell in the Americas during the past decade, trends in premature CVD mortality during the same period have not been described, particularly in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. This is a population-based trend-series study based on a total of 6,133,666 deaths to describe the trends and characteristics of premature mortality due to CVD and to estimates of the average annual percentage of change during the period 2000-2010 in the Americas. Premature mortality due to CVD in the Americas fell by 21% in the period 2000-2010 with a -2.5% average annual rate of change in the last 5 year-a statistically significant reduction of mortality-. Mortality from ischemic diseases, declined by 25% - 24% among men and 26% among women. Cerebrovascular diseases declined by 27% -26% among men and 28% among women. Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic, Bahamas, and Brazil had CVD premature mortality rates over 200 per 100,000 population, while the average for the Region was 132.7. US and Canada will meet the 25% reduction target before 2025. Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Panama, Guyana, and El Salvador did not significantly reduce premature mortality among men and Guyana, the Dominican Republic, and Panama did not achieve the required annual reduction in women. Trends in premature mortality due to CVD observed in last decade in the Americas would indicate that if these trends continue, the Region as a whole and a majority of its countries will be able to reach the goal of a 25% relative reduction in premature mortality even before 2025.

Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease in the Americas – Will the Goal of a Decline of “25% by 2025” be Met?

PubMed Central

Ordunez, Pedro; Prieto-Lara, Elisa; Pinheiro Gawryszewski, Vilma; Hennis, Anselm J. M.; Cooper, Richard S.

2015-01-01

Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the underlying cause 1.6 million deaths per year in the Americas, accounting for 30% of total mortality and 38% of by non-communicable deaths diseases (NCDs). A 25% reduction in premature mortality due four main NCDs was targeted by the 2011 High-level Meeting of the General Assembly on the Prevention and Control of NCDs. While overall CVD mortality fell in the Americas during the past decade, trends in premature CVD mortality during the same period have not been described, particularly in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Methods This is a population-based trend-series study based on a total of 6,133,666 deaths to describe the trends and characteristics of premature mortality due to CVD and to estimates of the average annual percentage of change during the period 2000–2010 in the Americas. Findings Premature mortality due to CVD in the Americas fell by 21% in the period 2000–2010 with a -2.5% average annual rate of change in the last 5 year—a statistically significant reduction of mortality—. Mortality from ischemic diseases, declined by 25% - 24% among men and 26% among women. Cerebrovascular diseases declined by 27% -26% among men and 28% among women. Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic, Bahamas, and Brazil had CVD premature mortality rates over 200 per 100,000 population, while the average for the Region was 132.7. US and Canada will meet the 25% reduction target before 2025. Mexico, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Panama, Guyana, and El Salvador did not significantly reduce premature mortality among men and Guyana, the Dominican Republic, and Panama did not achieve the required annual reduction in women. Conclusions Trends in premature mortality due to CVD observed in last decade in the Americas would indicate that if these trends continue, the Region as a whole and a majority of its countries will be able to reach the goal of a 25% relative reduction in premature mortality even before 2025. PMID:26512989

Marked Campylobacteriosis Decline after Interventions Aimed at Poultry, New Zealand

PubMed Central

Sears, Ann; Wilson, Nick; Marshall, Jonathan; Muellner, Petra; Campbell, Donald M.; Lake, Robin J.; French, Nigel P.

2011-01-01

Beginning in the 1980s, New Zealand experienced rising annual rates of campylobacteriosis that peaked in 2006. We analyzed notification, hospitalization, and other data to explore the 2007–2008 drop in campylobacteriosis incidence. Source attribution techniques based on genotyping of Campylobacter jejuni isolates from patients and environmental sources were also used to examine the decline. In 2008, the annual campylobacteriosis notification rate was 161.5/100,000 population, representing a 54% decline compared with the average annual rate of 353.8/100,000 for 2002–2006. A similar decline was seen for hospitalizations. Source attribution findings demonstrated a 74% (95% credible interval 49%–94%) reduction in the number of cases attributed to poultry. These reductions coincided with the introduction of a range of voluntary and regulatory interventions to reduce Campylobacter spp. contamination of poultry. The apparent success of these interventions may inform approaches other countries could consider to help control foodborne campylobacteriosis. PMID:21749761

The effect of bovine somatotropin on the cost of producing milk: Estimates using propensity scores.

PubMed

Tauer, Loren W

2016-04-01

Annual farm-level data from New York dairy farms from the years 1994 through 2013 were used to estimate the cost effect from bovine somatotropin (bST) using propensity score matching. Cost of production was computed using the whole-farm method, which subtracts sales of crops and animals from total costs under the assumption that the cost of producing those products is equal to their sales values. For a farm to be included in this data set, milk receipts on that farm must have comprised 85% or more of total receipts, indicating that these farms are primarily milk producers. Farm use of bST, where 25% or more of the herd was treated, ranged annually from 25 to 47% of the farms. The average cost effect from the use of bST was estimated to be a reduction of $2.67 per 100 kg of milk produced in 2013 dollars, although annual cost reduction estimates ranged from statistical zero to $3.42 in nominal dollars. Nearest neighbor matching techniques generated a similar estimate of $2.78 in 2013 dollars. These cost reductions estimated from the use of bST represented a cost savings of 5.5% per kilogram of milk produced. Herd-level production increase per cow from the use of bST over 20 yr averaged 1,160 kg. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Collegiate ACL Injury Rates Across 15 Sports: National Collegiate Athletic Association Injury Surveillance System Data Update (2004-2005 Through 2012-2013).

PubMed

Agel, Julie; Rockwood, Todd; Klossner, David

2016-11-01

To present data on the rate of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in 15 collegiate sports from 2004 to 2005 through 2012 to 2013 updating the 1988-1989 to 2003-2004 data. Prospectively designed descriptive epidemiology study. National Collegiate Athletic Association Schools. National Collegiate Athletic Association School athletes. Injury rate by year and sport. Most ACL injuries to women occurred by a noncontact mechanism (60%) versus a contact mechanism for men (59%). The highest average annual rate of ACL injury for men was found in football (0.17 per 1000 athlete-exposure [A-E]). The highest average annual rate of ACL injury for women was found in lacrosse (0.23 per 1000 A-E). There were statistically significant increases in average annual injury rate for men's (P = 0.04) and women's soccer (P = 0.01) and a statistically significant decrease in women's gymnastics over the 9 years (=0.009). Controlling for exposures, there were statistically significant increases in the average annual number of injuries for men's and women's basketball, ice hockey, field hockey, football, and volleyball and a decrease in the average annual number of injuries for baseball and women's gymnastics. Women continue to sustain ACL injuries at higher rates than men in the comparable sports of soccer, basketball, and lacrosse. Anterior cruciate ligament injury rates continue to rise in men's and women's soccer. Some sports have shown absolute increases in ACL rates, which persist even after exposure rates are taken into account. Despite extensive research and development of prevention programs before and during the time of this study, very few sports showed a reduction in ACL injury rates in this data set.

A stream-gaging network analysis for the 7-day, 10-year annual low flow in New Hampshire streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.

2003-01-01

The 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) low-flow-frequency statistic is a widely used measure of surface-water availability in New Hampshire. Regression equations and basin-characteristic digital data sets were developed to help water-resource managers determine surface-water resources during periods of low flow in New Hampshire streams. These regression equations and data sets were developed to estimate streamflow statistics for the annual and seasonal low-flow-frequency, and period-of-record and seasonal period-of-record flow durations. generalized-least-squares (GLS) regression methods were used to develop the annual 7Q10 low-flow-frequency regression equation from 60 continuous-record stream-gaging stations in New Hampshire and in neighboring States. In the regression equation, the dependent variables were the annual 7Q10 flows at the 60 stream-gaging stations. The independent (or predictor) variables were objectively selected characteristics of the drainage basins that contribute flow to those stations. In contrast to ordinary-least-squares (OLS) regression analysis, GLS-developed estimating equations account for differences in length of record and spatial correlations among the flow-frequency statistics at the various stations.A total of 93 measurable drainage-basin characteristics were candidate independent variables. On the basis of several statistical parameters that were used to evaluate which combination of basin characteristics contribute the most to the predictive power of the equations, three drainage-basin characteristics were determined to be statistically significant predictors of the annual 7Q10: (1) total drainage area, (2) mean summer stream-gaging station precipitation from 1961 to 90, and (3) average mean annual basinwide temperature from 1961 to 1990.To evaluate the effectiveness of the stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow data for the annual 7Q10, the computer program GLSNET (generalized-least-squares NETwork) was used to analyze the network by application of GLS regression between streamflow and the climatic and basin characteristics of the drainage basin upstream from each stream-gaging station. Improvement to the predictive ability of the regression equations developed for the network analyses is measured by the reduction in the average sampling-error variance, and can be achieved by collecting additional streamflow data at existing stations. The predictive ability of the regression equations is enhanced even further with the addition of new stations to the network. Continued data collection at unregulated stream-gaging stations with less than 14 years of record resulted in the greatest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance of the annual 7Q10 regional regression equation. The addition of new stations in basins with underrepresented values for the independent variables of the total drainage area, average mean annual basinwide temperature, or mean summer stream-gaging station precipitation in the annual 7Q10 regression equation yielded a much greater cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance than when more data were collected at existing unregulated stations. To maximize the regional information obtained from the stream-gaging network for the annual 7Q10, ranking of the streamflow data can be used to determine whether an active station should be continued or if a new or discontinued station should be activated for streamflow data collection. Thus, this network analysis can help determine the costs and benefits of continuing the operation of a particular station or activating a new station at another location to predict the 7Q10 at ungaged stream reaches. The decision to discontinue an existing station or activate a new station, however, must also consider its contribution to other water-resource analyses such as flood management, water quality, or trends in land use or climatic change.

78 FR 57640 - Agency Forms Undergoing Paperwork Reduction Act Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-19

...: Examples that compliment qualitative research on evidence based interventions. 4. Demonstrating return on... and track; therefore, OPHPR must use a creative method to collect relevant stories on the impacts of... Annualized Burden Hours Number of Average burden Type of respondents Form name Number of responses per per...

Reduction in radiation exposure to nursing personnel with the use of remote afterloading brachytherapy devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grigsby, P.W.; Perez, C.A.; Eichling, J.

The radiation exposure to nursing personnel from patients with brachytherapy implants on a large brachytherapy service were reviewed. Exposure to nurses, as determined by TLD monitors, indicates a 7-fold reduction in exposure after the implementation of the use of remote afterloading devices. Quarterly TLD monitor data for six quarters prior to the use of remote afterloading devices demonstrate an average projected annual dose equivalent to the nurses of 152 and 154 mrem (1.5 mSv). After the implementation of the remote afterloading devices, the quarterly TLD monitor data indicate an average dose equivalent per nurse of 23 and 19 mrem (0.2more » mSv). This is an 87% reduction in exposure to nurses with the use of these devices (p less than 0.01).« less

Modelling the impact of retention-detention units on sewer surcharge and peak and annual runoff reduction.

PubMed

Locatelli, Luca; Gabriel, Søren; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Taylor, Heidi; Bockhorn, Britta; Larsen, Hauge; Kjølby, Morten Just; Blicher, Anne Steensen; Binning, Philip John

2015-01-01

Stormwater management using water sensitive urban design is expected to be part of future drainage systems. This paper aims to model the combination of local retention units, such as soakaways, with subsurface detention units. Soakaways are employed to reduce (by storage and infiltration) peak and volume stormwater runoff; however, large retention volumes are required for a significant peak reduction. Peak runoff can therefore be handled by combining detention units with soakaways. This paper models the impact of retrofitting retention-detention units for an existing urbanized catchment in Denmark. The impact of retrofitting a retention-detention unit of 3.3 m³/100 m² (volume/impervious area) was simulated for a small catchment in Copenhagen using MIKE URBAN. The retention-detention unit was shown to prevent flooding from the sewer for a 10-year rainfall event. Statistical analysis of continuous simulations covering 22 years showed that annual stormwater runoff was reduced by 68-87%, and that the retention volume was on average 53% full at the beginning of rain events. The effect of different retention-detention volume combinations was simulated, and results showed that allocating 20-40% of a soakaway volume to detention would significantly increase peak runoff reduction with a small reduction in the annual runoff.

Adverse Selection and an Individual Mandate: When Theory Meets Practice*

PubMed Central

Hackmann, Martin B.; Kolstad, Jonathan T.; Kowalski, Amanda E.

2014-01-01

We develop a model of selection that incorporates a key element of recent health reforms: an individual mandate. Using data from Massachusetts, we estimate the parameters of the model. In the individual market for health insurance, we find that premiums and average costs decreased significantly in response to the individual mandate. We find an annual welfare gain of 4.1% per person or $51.1 million annually in Massachusetts as a result of the reduction in adverse selection. We also find smaller post-reform markups. PMID:25914412

Current status of radiological protection at nuclear power stations in Japan.

PubMed

Suzuki, Akira; Hori, Shunsuke

2011-07-01

The radiation dose to workers at nuclear power stations (NPSs) in Japan was drastically reduced between the late-1970s and the early-1990s by continuous dose-reduction programmes. The total collective dose of radiation workers in FY 2008 was 84.04 person Sv, while the average collective dose was 1.5 person Sv per reactor. The average annual individual dose was 1.1 mSv and the maximum annual individual dose was 19.5 mSv. These values are sufficiently lower than the regulatory dose limits. Radioactive effluent released from NPSs is already so trivial that additional protective measures will not be necessary. Experience in radiation protection at NPSs has been accumulated over 40 y and will be very useful in establishing a rational radiation control system in the future.

Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Ozone and Intercontinental Ozone Pollution: A Multi-Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doherty, R. M.; Wild, O.; Shindell, D. T.; Zeng, G.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Collins, W. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Dentener, F. J.; Schultz, M. G.;

A Meta-Analysis of Single-Family Deep Energy Retrofit Performance in the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Less, Brennan; Walker, Iain

2014-03-01

The current state of Deep Energy Retrofit (DER) performance in the U.S. has been assessed in 116 homes in the United States (US), using actual and simulated data gathered from the available domestic literature. Substantial airtightness reductions averaging 63% (n=48) were reported (two- to three-times more than in conventional retrofits), with average post-retrofit airtightness of 4.7 Air Changes per House at 50 Pascal (ACH50) (n=94). Yet, mechanical ventilation was not installed consistently. In order to avoid indoor air quality (IAQ) issues, all future DERs should comply with ASHRAE 62.2-2013 requirements or equivalent. Projects generally achieved good energy results, with averagemore » annual net-site and net-source energy savings of 47%±20% and 45%±24% (n=57 and n=35), respectively, and carbon emission reductions of 47%±22% (n=23). Net-energy reductions did not vary reliably with house age, airtightness, or reported project costs, but pre-retrofit energy usage was correlated with total reductions (MMBtu). Annual energy costs were reduced $1,283±$804 (n=31), from a pre-retrofit average of $2,738±$1,065 to $1,588±$561 post-retrofit (n=25 and n=39). The average reported incremental project cost was $40,420±$30,358 (n=59). When financed on a 30-year term, the median change in net-homeownership cost was only $1.00 per month, ranging from $149 in savings to an increase of $212 (mean=$15.67±$87.74; n=28), and almost half of the projects resulted in reductions in net-cost. The economic value of a DER may be much greater than is suggested by these net-costs, because DERs entail substantial non-energy benefits (NEBs), and retrofit measures may add value to a home at resale similarly to general remodeling, PV panel installation, and green/energy efficient home labels. These results provide estimates of the potential of DERs to address energy use in existing homes across climate zones that can be used in future estimates of the technical potential to reduce household energy use and greenhouse gas emissions through DERs.« less

Temporal trends of PM10 and its impact on mortality in Lombardy, Italy.

PubMed

Carugno, Michele; Consonni, Dario; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Biggeri, Annibale; Baccini, Michela

2017-08-01

Exposure to particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM 10 ) entails well documented adverse effects on human health. In the last decade, concentration of PM 10 in Lombardy (10 million inhabitants), Italy, has been gradually decreasing. We evaluated how the mortality burden due to PM 10 varied in that same period. We focused on 13 areas of the Region in 2003-2014: 11 cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, 1 smaller alpine town and 1 agricultural province. For each area, we collected PM 10 annual average concentrations and natural mortality data, and we used the posterior area-specific effects from a previous Bayesian meta-analysis to estimate the short-term impact of PM 10 on mortality, in terms of deaths attributable (AD) to annual average exposures exceeding the WHO threshold of 20 μg/m 3 . PM 10 annual average values showed a non-homogenous decreasing trend in the investigated time period in most of the areas. Overall, the population-weighted exposure levels decreased, except for a peak in 2011, but never met the WHO threshold. In 2003-2006, PM 10 levels were responsible, on average, for 343.0 annual AD from natural causes that decreased to 253.5 in 2007-2010 and to 208.3 in 2011-2014. Overall we estimated that PM 10 was responsible for about 1% of all natural deaths (min-max range: 0.86%-1.42%); the impact was heterogeneous among areas. By collecting routinely available data for the most populated areas in Lombardy, we returned a picture of air pollution and health trends in the last decade. Notwithstanding the observed reduction in PM 10 between 2003 and 2014 and the resulting decline in the number of AD, the impact is still relevant. Hence, appropriate policies for emission reduction could have a further beneficial effect on population health. Studies based on routine data and local effect estimates are recommended to properly inform the policy-making process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduction of solar photovoltaic resources due to air pollution in China

PubMed Central

Wagner, Fabian; Peng, Wei; Yang, Junnan; Mauzerall, Denise L.

2017-01-01

Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation is expanding rapidly in China, with total capacity projected to be 400 GW by 2030. However, severe aerosol pollution over China reduces solar radiation reaching the surface. We estimate the aerosol impact on solar PV electricity generation at the provincial and regional grid levels in China. Our approach is to examine the 12-year (2003–2014) average reduction in point-of-array irradiance (POAI) caused by aerosols in the atmosphere. We apply satellite-derived surface irradiance data from the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) with a PV performance model (PVLIB-Python) to calculate the impact of aerosols and clouds on POAI. Our findings reveal that aerosols over northern and eastern China, the most polluted regions, reduce annual average POAI by up to 1.5 kWh/m2 per day relative to pollution-free conditions, a decrease of up to 35%. Annual average reductions of POAI over both northern and eastern China are about 20–25%. We also evaluate the seasonal variability of the impact and find that aerosols in this region are as important as clouds in winter. Furthermore, we find that aerosols decrease electricity output of tracking PV systems more than those with fixed arrays: over eastern China, POAI is reduced by 21% for fixed systems at optimal angle and 34% for two-axis tracking systems. We conclude that PV system performance in northern and eastern China will benefit from improvements in air quality and will facilitate that improvement by providing emission-free electricity. PMID:29078360

Reduction of solar photovoltaic resources due to air pollution in China.

PubMed

Li, Xiaoyuan; Wagner, Fabian; Peng, Wei; Yang, Junnan; Mauzerall, Denise L

2017-11-07

Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation is expanding rapidly in China, with total capacity projected to be 400 GW by 2030. However, severe aerosol pollution over China reduces solar radiation reaching the surface. We estimate the aerosol impact on solar PV electricity generation at the provincial and regional grid levels in China. Our approach is to examine the 12-year (2003-2014) average reduction in point-of-array irradiance (POAI) caused by aerosols in the atmosphere. We apply satellite-derived surface irradiance data from the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) with a PV performance model (PVLIB-Python) to calculate the impact of aerosols and clouds on POAI. Our findings reveal that aerosols over northern and eastern China, the most polluted regions, reduce annual average POAI by up to 1.5 kWh/m 2 per day relative to pollution-free conditions, a decrease of up to 35%. Annual average reductions of POAI over both northern and eastern China are about 20-25%. We also evaluate the seasonal variability of the impact and find that aerosols in this region are as important as clouds in winter. Furthermore, we find that aerosols decrease electricity output of tracking PV systems more than those with fixed arrays: over eastern China, POAI is reduced by 21% for fixed systems at optimal angle and 34% for two-axis tracking systems. We conclude that PV system performance in northern and eastern China will benefit from improvements in air quality and will facilitate that improvement by providing emission-free electricity. Published under the PNAS license.

Ecosystem-Service Tradeoffs Associated with Switching from Annual to Perennial Energy Crops in Riparian Zones of the US Midwest

PubMed Central

Meehan, Timothy D.; Gratton, Claudio; Diehl, Erica; Hunt, Natalie D.; Mooney, Daniel F.; Ventura, Stephen J.; Barham, Bradford L.; Jackson, Randall D.

2013-01-01

Integration of energy crops into agricultural landscapes could promote sustainability if they are placed in ways that foster multiple ecosystem services and mitigate ecosystem disservices from existing crops. We conducted a modeling study to investigate how replacing annual energy crops with perennial energy crops along Wisconsin waterways could affect a variety of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. We found that a switch from continuous corn production to perennial-grass production decreased annual income provisioning by 75%, although it increased annual energy provisioning by 33%, decreased annual phosphorous loading to surface water by 29%, increased below-ground carbon sequestration by 30%, decreased annual nitrous oxide emissions by 84%, increased an index of pollinator abundance by an average of 11%, and increased an index of biocontrol potential by an average of 6%. We expressed the tradeoffs between income provisioning and other ecosystem services as benefit-cost ratios. Benefit-cost ratios averaged 12.06 GJ of additional net energy, 0.84 kg of avoided phosphorus pollution, 18.97 Mg of sequestered carbon, and 1.99 kg of avoided nitrous oxide emissions for every $1,000 reduction in income. These ratios varied spatially, from 2- to 70-fold depending on the ecosystem service. Benefit-cost ratios for different ecosystem services were generally correlated within watersheds, suggesting the presence of hotspots – watersheds where increases in multiple ecosystem services would come at lower-than-average opportunity costs. When assessing the monetary value of ecosystem services relative to existing conservation programs and environmental markets, the overall value of enhanced services associated with adoption of perennial energy crops was far lower than the opportunity cost. However, when we monitized services using estimates for the social costs of pollution, the value of enhanced services far exceeded the opportunity cost. This disparity between recoverable costs and social value represents a fundamental challenge to expansion of perennial energy crops and sustainable agricultural landscapes. PMID:24223215

Ecosystem-service tradeoffs associated with switching from annual to perennial energy crops in riparian zones of the US Midwest.

PubMed

Meehan, Timothy D; Gratton, Claudio; Diehl, Erica; Hunt, Natalie D; Mooney, Daniel F; Ventura, Stephen J; Barham, Bradford L; Jackson, Randall D

2013-01-01

Integration of energy crops into agricultural landscapes could promote sustainability if they are placed in ways that foster multiple ecosystem services and mitigate ecosystem disservices from existing crops. We conducted a modeling study to investigate how replacing annual energy crops with perennial energy crops along Wisconsin waterways could affect a variety of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. We found that a switch from continuous corn production to perennial-grass production decreased annual income provisioning by 75%, although it increased annual energy provisioning by 33%, decreased annual phosphorous loading to surface water by 29%, increased below-ground carbon sequestration by 30%, decreased annual nitrous oxide emissions by 84%, increased an index of pollinator abundance by an average of 11%, and increased an index of biocontrol potential by an average of 6%. We expressed the tradeoffs between income provisioning and other ecosystem services as benefit-cost ratios. Benefit-cost ratios averaged 12.06 GJ of additional net energy, 0.84 kg of avoided phosphorus pollution, 18.97 Mg of sequestered carbon, and 1.99 kg of avoided nitrous oxide emissions for every $1,000 reduction in income. These ratios varied spatially, from 2- to 70-fold depending on the ecosystem service. Benefit-cost ratios for different ecosystem services were generally correlated within watersheds, suggesting the presence of hotspots--watersheds where increases in multiple ecosystem services would come at lower-than-average opportunity costs. When assessing the monetary value of ecosystem services relative to existing conservation programs and environmental markets, the overall value of enhanced services associated with adoption of perennial energy crops was far lower than the opportunity cost. However, when we monitized services using estimates for the social costs of pollution, the value of enhanced services far exceeded the opportunity cost. This disparity between recoverable costs and social value represents a fundamental challenge to expansion of perennial energy crops and sustainable agricultural landscapes.

Ozone response to emission reductions in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, Charles L.; Hidy, George M.

2018-06-01

Ozone (O3) formation in the southeastern US is studied in relation to nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions using long-term (1990s-2015) surface measurements of the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) network, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) O3 measurements, and EPA Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) nitrate deposition data. Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8 h O3 mixing ratios at EPA monitoring sites in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi exhibit statistically significant (p < 0.0001) linear correlations with annual NOx emissions in those states between 1996 and 2015. The annual fourth-highest daily peak 8 h O3 mixing ratios declined toward values of ˜ 45-50 ppbv and monthly O3 maxima decreased at rates averaging ˜ 1-1.5 ppbv yr-1. Mean annual total oxidized nitrogen (NOy) mixing ratios at SEARCH sites declined in proportion to NOx emission reductions. CASTNET data show declining wet and dry nitrate deposition since the late 1990s, with total (wet plus dry) nitrate deposition fluxes decreasing linearly in proportion to reductions of NOx emissions by ˜ 60 % in Alabama and Georgia. Annual nitrate deposition rates at Georgia and Alabama CASTNET sites correspond to 30 % of Georgia emission rates and 36 % of Alabama emission rates, respectively. The fraction of NOx emissions lost to deposition has not changed. SEARCH and CASTNET sites exhibit downward trends in mean annual nitric acid (HNO3) concentrations. Observed relationships of O3 to NOz (NOy-NOx) support past model predictions of increases in cycling of NO and increasing responsiveness of O3 to NOx. The study data provide a long-term record that can be used to examine the accuracy of process relationships embedded in modeling efforts. Quantifying observed O3 trends and relating them to reductions in ambient NOy species concentrations offers key insights into processes of general relevance to air quality management and provides important information supporting strategies for reducing O3 mixing ratios.

Gulkana Glacier, Alaska-Mass balance, meteorology, and water measurements, 1997-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.; O'Neel, Shad

2011-01-01

The measured winter snow, maximum winter snow, net, and annual balances for 1997-2001 in the Gulkana Glacier basin are determined at specific points and over the entire glacier area using the meteorological, hydrological, and glaciological data. We provide descriptions of glacier geometry to aid in estimation of conventional and reference surface mass balances and descriptions of ice motion to aid in the understanding of the glacier's response to its changing geometry. These data provide annual estimates for area altitude distribution, equilibrium line altitude, and accumulation area ratio during the study interval. New determinations of historical area altitude distributions are given for 1900 and annually from 1966 to 2001. As original weather instrumentation is nearing the end of its deployment lifespan, we provide new estimates of overlap comparisons and precipitation catch efficiency. During 1997-2001, Gulkana Glacier showed a continued and accelerated negative mass balance trend, especially below the equilibrium line altitude where thinning was pronounced. Ice motion also slowed, which combined with the negative mass balance, resulted in glacier retreat under a warming climate. Average annual runoff augmentation by glacier shrinkage for 1997-2001 was 25 percent compared to the previous average of 13 percent, in accordance with the measured glacier volume reductions.

Policy applications of a highly resolved spatial and temporal onroad carbon dioxide emissions data product for the U.S.: Analyses and their implications for mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza Lebrun, Daniel

Onroad CO2 emissions were analyzed as part of overall GHG emissions, but those studies have suffered from one or more of these five shortcomings: 1) the spatial resolution was coarse, usually encompassing a region, or the entire U.S.; 2) the temporal resolution was coarse (annual or monthly); 3) the study region was limited, usually a metropolitan planning organization (MPO) or state; 4) fuel sales were used as a proxy to quantify fuel consumption instead of focusing on travel; 5) the spatial heterogeneity of fleet and road network composition was not considered and instead national averages are used. Normalized vehicle-type state-level spatial biases range from 2.6% to 8.1%, while the road type classification biases range from -6.3% to 16.8%. These biases are found to cause errors in reduction estimates as large as ±60%, corresponding to ±0.2 MtC, for a national-average emissions mitigation strategy focused on a 10% emissions reduction from a single vehicle class. Temporal analysis shows distinct emissions seasonality that is particularly visible in the northernmost latitudes, demonstrating peak-to-peak deviations from the annual mean of up to 50%. The hourly structure shows peak-to-peak deviation from a weekly average of up to 200% for heavy-duty (HD) vehicles and 140% for light-duty (LD) vehicles. The present study focuses on reduction of travel and fuel economy improvements by putting forth several mitigation scenarios aimed at reducing VMT and increasing vehicle fuel efficiency. It was found that the most effective independent reduction strategies are those that increase fuel efficiency by extending standards proposed by the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) or reduction of fuel consumption due to price increases. These two strategies show cumulative emissions reductions of approximately 11% and 12%, respectively, from a business as usual (BAU) approach over the 2000-2050 period. The U.S. onroad transportation sector is long overdue a comprehensive study of CO2 emissions at a highly resolved level. Such a study would improve fossil fuel flux products by enhancing measurement accuracy and prompt location-specific mitigation policy. The carbon cycle science and policymaking communities are both poised to benefit greatly from the development of a highly resolved spatiotemporal emissions product.

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands

PubMed Central

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E.; Fox, Garey A.

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002–2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands. PMID:28792541

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands.

PubMed

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E; Fox, Garey A

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002-2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands.

Growth reductions in naturally regenerated southern pine stands in Alabama and Georgia

Treesearch

G.A. Ruark; C.E. Thomas; W.A. Bechtold; D.M. May

1991-01-01

Data from Forest Inventory and analysis (FIA) units of the USDA Forest Service were used to compare average annual stand-level basal area accretion onto survivor pines in naturally regenerated pine stands throughout Alabama and Georgia. Growth rates measured between 1972-82 were compared to growth rates during the previous 10-year survey cycle in each state. Separate...

75 FR 57265 - Commission Information Collection Activities (FERC-547); Comment Request; Submitted for OMB Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-20

... to a reduction in the average number of filings received annually, from 60 in 2007, to 30 presently... Commission as explained below. The Commission issued a Notice in the Federal Register (75 FR 34107, 6/ 16... refund, with interest, for any portion of a natural gas company's increased rate or charge found to be...

Effects of recent decreases in arctic sea ice on an ice-associated marine bird

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divoky, George J.; Lukacs, Paul M.; Druckenmiller, Matthew L.

2015-08-01

Recent major reductions in summer arctic sea ice extent could be expected to be affecting the distributions and life histories of arctic marine biota adapted to living adjacent to sea ice. Of major concern are the effects of ice reductions, and associated increasing SST, on the most abundant forage fish in the Arctic, Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), the primary prey for the region's upper trophic level marine predators. The black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii) is an ice-obligate diving seabird specializing in feeding on Arctic cod and has been studied annually since 1975 at a breeding colony in the western Beaufort Sea. The data set is one of the few allowing assessment of the response of an upper trophic marine predator to recent decadal changes in the region's cryosphere. Analysis of oceanographic conditions north of the colony from 1975 to 2012 for the annual period when parents provision young (mid-July to early September), found no major regime shifts in ice extent or SST until the late 1990s with major decreases in ice and increases in SST in the first decade of the 21st Century. We examined decadal variation in late summer oceanographic conditions, nestling diet and success, and overwinter adult survival, comparing a historical period (1975-1984) with a recent (2003-2012) one. In the historical period sea ice retreated an average of 1.8 km per day from 15 July to 1 September to an average distance of 95.8 km from the colony, while in the recent period ice retreat averaged 9.8 km per day to an average distance of 506.9 km for the same time period. SST adjacent to the island increased an average of 2.9 °C between the two periods. While Arctic cod comprised over 95% of the prey provided to nestlings in the historical period, in the recent period 80% of the years had seasonal decreases, with Arctic cod decreasing to <5% of the nestling diet, and nearshore demersals, primarily sculpin (Cottidae), comprising the majority of the diet. A five-fold increase in the rate of nestling starvation and reductions in nestling growth and fledging mass were associated with the shift from Arctic cod. Annual adult survival during the nonbreeding season (September-May), showed no significant difference between the two periods, indicating no major change in availability of Arctic cod or other prey in the wintering area in the Bering Sea. Our findings of a substantial decrease in Arctic cod availability in late summer in response to decreased ice extent and increasing SST have implications for the entire Arctic given the ongoing and predicted basin-wide reductions in sea ice.

The Economic Gains of Achieving Reduced Alcohol Consumption Targets for Australia

PubMed Central

Magnus, Anne; Cadilhac, Dominique; Sheppard, Lauren; Cumming, Toby; Pearce, Dora; Carter, Rob

2012-01-01

Objectives. To inform prevention policy, we estimated the economic benefits to health, production, and leisure in the 2008 Australian population of a realistic target reduction in per capita annual adult alcohol consumption. Methods. We chose a target of 6.4 liters annually per capita on average. We modeled lifetime health benefits as fewer incident cases of alcohol-related disease, deaths, and disability adjusted life years. We estimated production gains with surveyed participation and absenteeism rates. We valued gains with friction cost and human capital methods. We estimated and valued household production and leisure gains from time-use surveys. Results. A reduction of 3.4 liters of alcohol consumed annually per capita would result in one third fewer incident cases of disease (98 000), deaths (380), working days lost (5 million), days of home-based production lost (54 000), and a A$ 789-million health sector cost reduction. Workforce production had a A$ 427 million gain when we used the friction cost method. By contrast, we estimated a loss of 28 000 leisure days and 1000 additional early retirements. Conclusions. Economic savings and health benefits from reduced alcohol consumption may be substantial—particularly in the health sector with reduced alcohol-related disease and injury. PMID:22594720

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.21 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... annually); (xv) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuate)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (xvi) Killer whale... dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (x) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

50 CFR 218.11 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... annually); (viii) Pilot whales (Globicephala sp.)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (ix) Dwarf or pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an average of 3 annually); (x) Beaked whales—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) Minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—15 (an average of 3 annually). (2) Level A Harassment...

Effects of agricultural nutrient management on nitrogen fate and transport in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, D.W.; Risser, D.W.

1993-01-01

Nitrogen inputs to, and outputs from, a 55-acre site in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, were estimated to determine the pathways and relative magnitude of loads of nitrogen entering and leaving the site, and to compare the loads of nitrogen before and after the implementation of nutrient management. Inputs of nitrogen to the site were manure fertilizer, commercial fertilizer, nitrogen in precipitation, and nitrogen in ground-water inflow; and these sources averaged 93, 4, 2, and 1 percent of average annual nitrogen additions, respectively. Outputs of nitrogen from the site were nitrogen in harvested crops, loads of nitrogen in surface runoff, volatilization of nitrogen, and loads of nitrogen in ground-water discharge, which averaged 37, less than 1,25, and 38 percent of average annual nitrogen removals from the site, respectively. Virtually all of the nitrogen leaving the site that was not removed in harvested crops or by volatilization was discharged in the ground water. Applications of manure and fertilizer nitrogen to 47.5 acres of cropped fields decreased about 33 percent, from an average of 22,700 pounds per year (480 pounds per acre per year) before nutrient management to 15,175 pounds of nitrogen per year (320 pounds per acre per year) after the implementation of nutrient management practices. Nitrogen loads in ground-water discharged from the site decreased about 30 percent, from an average of 292 pounds of nitrogen per million gallons of ground water before nutrient management to an average of 203 pounds of nitrogen per million gallons as a result of the decreased manure and commercial fertilizer applications. Reductions in manure and commercial fertilizer applications caused a reduction of approximately 11,000 pounds (3,760 pounds per year, 70 pounds per acre per year) in the load of nitrogen discharged in ground water from the 55-acre site during the three-year period 1987-1990.

Precipitation areal-reduction factor estimation using an annual-maxima centered approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asquith, W. H.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2000-04-01

The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed "annual-maxima centered," specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima.

40 CFR 407.82 - Effluent limitations guidelines representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... limitations for the soups subcategory are based upon pounds (lb) or kilograms (kg) of pollutant per 1000... 0.24 0.17 Soups 4.14 2.46 1.69 Tomato-starch-cheese canned specialties 1.87 1.08 0.72 (b) The... only the annual average TSS limitations. Effluent limitations for the soups subcategory are based upon...

40 CFR 407.72 - Effluent limitations guidelines representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

....01 0.71 0.57 Broccoli 3.83 2.21 1.47 Carrots 1.76 1.11 0.82 Corn: Canned 0.71 0.48 0.38 Frozen 1.45 0...— Annual average shall not exceed— Beets 1.88 1.47 1.12 Broccoli 6.78 4.57 2.65 Carrots 3.19 2.30 1.54 Corn...

75 FR 27497 - Determination That Children's Upper Outerwear in Sizes 2T to 12 With Neck or Hood Drawstrings and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-17

... outerwear garments in sizes 2T to 12 or the equivalent that have neck or hood drawstrings, and in sizes 2T to 16 or the equivalent that have waist or bottom drawstrings that do not meet specified criteria... percent. The corresponding reduction in the annual average number of reported non-fatal entrapments is 91...

Climate warming could reduce runoff significantly in New England, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, T.G.

2003-01-01

The relation between mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP) and evapotranspiration (ET) for 38 forested watersheds was determined to evaluate the potential increase in ET and resulting decrease in stream runoff that could occur following climate change and lengthening of the growing season. The watersheds were all predominantly forested and were located in eastern North America, along a gradient in MAT from 3.5??C in New Brunswick, CA, to 19.8??C in northern Florida. Regression analysis for MAT versus ET indicated that along this gradient ET increased at a rate of 2.85 cm??C-1 increase in MAT (??0.96 cm??C-1, 95% confidence limits). General circulation models (GCM) using current mid-range emission scenarios project global MAT to increase by about 3??C during the 21st century. The inferred, potential, reduction in annual runoff associated with a 3??C increase in MAT for a representative small coastal basin and an inland mountainous basin in New England would be 11-13%. Percentage reductions in average daily runoff could be substantially larger during the months of lowest flows (July-September). The largest absolute reductions in runoff are likely to be during April and May with smaller reduction in the fall. This seasonal pattern of reduction in runoff is consistent with lengthening of the growing season and an increase in the ratio of rain to snow. Future increases in water use efficiency (WUE), precipitation, and cloudiness could mitigate part or all of this reduction in runoff but the full effects of changing climate on WUE remain quite uncertain as do future trends in precipitation and cloudiness.

Collaborative Modeling of the Benefits and Harms Associated With Different U.S. Breast Cancer Screening Strategies.

PubMed

Mandelblatt, Jeanne S; Stout, Natasha K; Schechter, Clyde B; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Miglioretti, Diana L; Krapcho, Martin; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Munoz, Diego; Lee, Sandra J; Berry, Donald A; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Kerlikowske, Karla; Tosteson, Anna N A; Near, Aimee M; Hoeffken, Amanda; Chang, Yaojen; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A; Chisholm, Gary; Huang, Xuelin; Huang, Hui; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Gangnon, Ronald; Sprague, Brian L; Plevritis, Sylvia; Feuer, Eric; de Koning, Harry J; Cronin, Kathleen A

2016-02-16

Controversy persists about optimal mammography screening strategies. To evaluate screening outcomes, taking into account advances in mammography and treatment of breast cancer. Collaboration of 6 simulation models using national data on incidence, digital mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality. United States. Average-risk U.S. female population and subgroups with varying risk, breast density, or comorbidity. Eight strategies differing by age at which screening starts (40, 45, or 50 years) and screening interval (annual, biennial, and hybrid [annual for women in their 40s and biennial thereafter]). All strategies assumed 100% adherence and stopped at age 74 years. Benefits (breast cancer-specific mortality reduction, breast cancer deaths averted, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years); number of mammograms used; harms (false-positive results, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis); and ratios of harms (or use) and benefits (efficiency) per 1000 screens. Biennial strategies were consistently the most efficient for average-risk women. Biennial screening from age 50 to 74 years avoided a median of 7 breast cancer deaths versus no screening; annual screening from age 40 to 74 years avoided an additional 3 deaths, but yielded 1988 more false-positive results and 11 more overdiagnoses per 1000 women screened. Annual screening from age 50 to 74 years was inefficient (similar benefits, but more harms than other strategies). For groups with a 2- to 4-fold increased risk, annual screening from age 40 years had similar harms and benefits as screening average-risk women biennially from 50 to 74 years. For groups with moderate or severe comorbidity, screening could stop at age 66 to 68 years. Other imaging technologies, polygenic risk, and nonadherence were not considered. Biennial screening for breast cancer is efficient for average-risk populations. Decisions about starting ages and intervals will depend on population characteristics and the decision makers' weight given to the harms and benefits of screening. National Institutes of Health.

Energy Saving Melting and Revert Reduction Technology (Energy SMARRT): Manufacturing Advanced Engineered Components Using Lost Foam Casting Technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Littleton, Harry; Griffin, John

2011-07-31

This project was a subtask of Energy Saving Melting and Revert Reduction Technology (Energy SMARRT) Program. Through this project, technologies, such as computer modeling, pattern quality control, casting quality control and marketing tools, were developed to advance the Lost Foam Casting process application and provide greater energy savings. These technologies have improved (1) production efficiency, (2) mechanical properties, and (3) marketability of lost foam castings. All three reduce energy consumption in the metals casting industry. This report summarizes the work done on all tasks in the period of January 1, 2004 through June 30, 2011. Current (2011) annual energy savingmore » estimates based on commercial introduction in 2011 and a market penetration of 97% by 2020 is 5.02 trillion BTU's/year and 6.46 trillion BTU's/year with 100% market penetration by 2023. Along with these energy savings, reduction of scrap and improvement in casting yield will result in a reduction of the environmental emissions associated with the melting and pouring of the metal which will be saved as a result of this technology. The average annual estimate of CO2 reduction per year through 2020 is 0.03 Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent (MM TCE).« less

Water-level changes in the High Plains aquifer; predevelopment to 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGrath, T.J.; Dugan, J.T.

1993-01-01

Regional variability in water-level change in the High Plains aquifer underlying parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming results from large regional differences in climate, soils, land use, and ground-water withdrawals for irrigation. From the beginning of significant development of the High Plains aquifer for irrigation to 1980, substantial water-level declines have occurred in several areas. The estimated average area-weighted water-level decline from predevelopment to 1980 for the High Plains was 9.9 feet, an average annual decline of about 0.25 foot. These declines exceeded 100 feet in some parts of the Central and Southern High Plains. Declines were much smaller and less extensive in the Northern High Plains as a result of later irrigation development. Since 1980, water levels in those areas of large declines in the Central and Southern High Plains have continued to decline, but at a much slower annual rate. The estimated average area-weighted water-level decline from 1980 to 1991 for the entire High Plains was 1.41 feet, an average annual decline of about 0.13 foot. The relatively small decline since 1980, in relation to the declines prior to 1980, is associated with a decrease in ground-water application for irrigated agriculture and greater than normal precipitation. Water-conserving practices and technology, in addition to reductions in irrigated acreages, contributed to the decrease in ground-water withdrawals for irrigation.

Quantitative Relationship of Soil Texture with the Observed Population Density Reduction of Heterodera glycines after Annual Corn Rotation in Nebraska

PubMed Central

Pérez-Hernández, Oscar; Giesler, Loren J.

2014-01-01

Soil texture has been commonly associated with the population density of Heterodera glycines (soybean cyst nematode: SCN), but such an association has been mainly described in terms of textural classes. In this study, multivariate analysis and a generalized linear modeling approach were used to elucidate the quantitative relationship of soil texture with the observed SCN population density reduction after annual corn rotation in Nebraska. Forty-five commercial production fields were sampled in 2009, 2010, and 2011 and SCN population density (eggs/100 cm3 of soil) for each field was determined before (Pi) and after (Pf) annual corn rotation from ten 3 × 3-m sampling grids. Principal components analysis revealed that, compared with silt and clay, sand had a stronger association with SCN Pi and Pf. Cluster analysis using the average linkage method and confirmed through 1,000 bootstrap simulations identified two groups: one corresponding to predominant silt-and-clay fields and other to sand-predominant fields. This grouping suggested that SCN relative percent population decline was higher in the sandy than in the silt-and-clay predominant group. However, when groups were compared for their SCN population density reduction using Pf as the response, Pi as a covariate, and incorporating the year and field variability, a negative binomial generalized linear model indicated that the SCN population density reduction was not statistically different between the sand-predominant field group and the silt-and-clay predominant group. PMID:24987160

Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5 Models: the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Yang, Q.; Overland, J. E.; Stabeno, P. J.

2016-12-01

With fast declining of sea ice cover in the Arctic, the timing of sea ice break-up and freeze-up is an urgent economic, social and scientific issue. Based on daily sea ice concentration data we assess three parameters: the dates of sea ice break-up and freeze-up and the annual sea ice duration in the Pacific Arctic. The sea ice duration is shrinking, with the largest trend during the past decade (1990-2015); this declining trend will continue based on CMIP5 model projections. The seven CMIP5 models used in current study are able to simulate all three parameters well when compared with observations. Comparisons made at eight Chukchi Sea mooring sites and the eight Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) boxes show consistent results as well. The 30-year averaged trend for annual sea ice duration is projected to be -0.68 days/year to -1.2 days/year for 2015-2044. This is equivalent 20 to 36 days reduction in the annual sea ice duration. A similar magnitude of the negative trend is also found at all eight DBO boxes. The reduction in annual sea ice duration will include both earlier break-up dates and later freeze-up date. However, models project that a later freeze-up contributes more than early break-up to the overall shortening of annual sea ice duration. Around the Bering Strait future changes are the smallest, with less than 20-days change in duration during next 30 years. Upto 60 days reduction of the sea ice duration is projected for the decade of 2030-2044 in the East Siberia, the Chukchi and the Beaufort Seas.

Childhood drowning in Malaysia.

PubMed

Hss, Amar-Singh; Tan, Pui San; Hashim, Lina

2014-01-01

This study aimed to collate data on childhood drowning in Malaysia and review existing drowning prevention measures. This study used secondary data from governmental and non-governmental agencies. All reported fatal drownings from 2000 to 2007 and all reported non-fatal drownings from 2000 to 2008 were included. Data were analysed to provide understanding of the epidemiology of drowning incidents, risk factors and available preventive efforts. On average 286 (range 248-344) children died yearly due to drowning with a death rate of 3.05 per 100,000 annually. An additional average of 207 children drowned but survived annually (1.99 per 100,000). The estimated burden of drowning in children (death and non-death) is 5 per 100,000. There was no reduction in annual drowning fatalities over time. Most drowning took place in east coast regions during the annual monsoon season. It was 3.52 (2.80-4.41) times more common in boys and most prevalent among 10-14 years. Most prevalent sites of all-age drowning were seas and rivers. Limited water safety regulations are currently available in the country. This is the first comprehensive national study in Malaysia on paediatric drowning and highlights the magnitude of the problem. It calls for concerted effort to devise effective national drowning prevention measures.

28 CFR 505.2 - Annual determination of average cost of incarceration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION COST OF INCARCERATION FEE § 505.2 Annual determination of average cost of... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual determination of average cost of... average cost of incarceration. This calculation is reviewed annually and the revised figure is published...

[Population change of farmland rodent and the influences of climate and cultivation factors in Fengxian District of Shanghai, China].

PubMed

Fei, Lei; Wang, Zu-guo; Yao, Yao; Xu, Xiang-ming; Gu, Pin-qiang

2015-02-01

We analyzed the changes of rodent population from 1988 to 2013 in Fengxian District, Shanghai, and discussed the relevance of rodent population dynamics and climate, and ecological factors. Results showed that the average rat density was 1.3% from 1988 to 2013, and the dominant species was Apodemus agrarius. There was little change of density between years. The average composition ratio was 97.5%. The peak of rodent density appeared from February to May, highest in March. Average density and peak decreased obviously year after year. Numbers of adult rodents of 1st group were positively correlated, while that of adult rodents of 2nd group and elderly group negatively correlated with years. Rat age presented a shortened trend annually. Rodent density and temperature factors were negatively correlated except in January. Extreme warmth in February had a lagged, positive effect on the rat density. Precipitation factors had no significant correlation with the density of rodents. Relative humidity was positively correlated with the density, mostly. Planting structure adjustment and reduction of planting acreage were significantly correlated with the reduction of rodent density. Increased deratization rate was also correlated with the reduction.

Decreasing trends of suspended particulate matter and PM2.5 concentrations in Tokyo, 1990-2010.

PubMed

Hara, Kunio; Homma, Junichi; Tamura, Kenji; Inoue, Mariko; Karita, Kanae; Yano, Eiji

2013-06-01

In Tokyo, the annual average suspended particulate matter (SPM) and PM2.5 concentrations have decreased in the past two decades. The present study quantitatively evaluated these decreasing trends using data from air-pollution monitoring stations. Annual SPM and PM2.5 levels at 83 monitoring stations and hourly SPM and PM2.5 levels at four monitoring stations in Tokyo, operated by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, were used for analysis, together with levels of co-pollutants and meteorological conditions. Traffic volume in Tokyo was calculated from the total traveling distance of vehicles as reported by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism. High positive correlations between SPM levels and nitrogen oxide levels, sulfur dioxide levels, and traffic volume were determined. The annual average SPM concentration declined by 62.6%from 59.4 microg/m3 in 1994 to 22.2 microg/m3 in 2010, and PM2.5 concentration also declined by 49.8% from 29.3 microg/m3 in 2001 to 14.7 microg/m3 in 2010. Likewise, the frequencies of hourly average SPM and PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the daily guideline values have significantly decreased since 2001 and the hourly average SPM or PM2.5 concentrations per traffic volume for each time period have also significantly decreased since 2001. However SPM and PM2.5 concentrations increased at some monitoring stations between 2004 and 2006 and from 2009 despite strengthened environmental regulations and improvements in vehicle engine performance. The annual average SPM and PM2.5 concentrations were positively correlated with traffic volumes and in particular with the volume of diesel trucks. These results suggest that the decreasing levels of SPM and PM2.5 in Tokyo may be attributable to decreased traffic volumes, along with the effects of stricter governmental regulation and improvements to vehicle engine performance, including the fitting of devices for exhaust emission reduction.

Grinnell and Sperry Glaciers, Glacier National Park, Montana: A record of vanishing ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Arthur

1980-01-01

Grinnell and Sperry Glaciers, in Glacier National Park, Mont., have both shrunk considerably since their discovery in 1887 and 1895, respectively. This shrinkage, a reflection of climatic conditions, is evident when photographs taken at the time of discovery are compared with later photographs. Annual precipitation and terminus-recession measurements, together with detailed systematic topographic mapping since 1900, clearly record the changes in the character and size of these glaciers. Grinnell Glacier decreased in area from 530 acres in 1900 to 315 acres in 1960 and to 298 acres in 1966. Between 1937 and 1969 the terminus receded nearly 1,200 feet. Periodic profile measurements indicate that in 1969 the surface over the main part of the glacier was 25-30 feet lower than in 1950. Observations from 1947 to 1969 indicate annual northeastward movement ranging from 32 to 52 feet and generally averaging 35-45 feet. The annual runoff at the glacier is estimated to be 150 inches, of which approximately 6 inches represents reduction in glacier volume. The average annual runoff at a gaging station on Grinnell Creek 1.5 miles downvalley from the glacier for the 20-year period, 1949-69, was 100 inches. The average annual precipitation over the glacier was probably 120-150 inches. Sperry Glacier occupied 800 acres in 1901; by 1960 it covered only 287 acres, much of its upper part having disappeared from the enclosing cirque. From 1938 to 1969 certain segments of the terminus receded more than 1,000 feet. Profile measurements dating from 1949 indicate a lowering of the glacier surface below an altitude of 7,500 feet, but a fairly constant or slightly increased elevation of the surface above an altitude of 7,500 feet. Along one segment of the 1969 terminus the ice had been more than 100 feet thick in 1950. According to observations during 1949-69, average annual downslope movement was less than 15 feet per year in the central part of the glacier and slightly more rapid toward the edges and at higher parts on the glacier.

50 CFR 216.242 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—8270 (an average of 1654 annually). (Q) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—1400 (an average of 280 annually). (R) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—2690 (an average of 538 annually). (S) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—2515 (an average of 503 annually). (T) Pilot whales...

50 CFR 216.242 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—8270 (an average of 1654 annually). (Q) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—1400 (an average of 280 annually). (R) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—2690 (an average of 538 annually). (S) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—2515 (an average of 503 annually). (T) Pilot whales...

Precipitation areal-reduction factor estimation using an annual-maxima centered approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, W.H.; Famiglietti, J.S.

2000-01-01

The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed 'annual-maxima centered,' specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed 'annual-maxima centered,' specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima.

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? 80.205 Section 80.205 Protection of... ADDITIVES Gasoline Sulfur Gasoline Sulfur Standards § 80.205 How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined? (a) The annual refinery or importer average and...

Current status and future trends of SO2 and NOx pollution during the 12th FYP period in Guiyang city of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Hezhong; Qiu, Peipei; Cheng, Ke; Gao, Jiajia; Lu, Long; Liu, Kaiyun; Liu, Xingang

2013-04-01

In order to investigate the future trends of SO2 and NOx pollution in Guiyang city of China, the MM5/CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system is applied to assess the effects of air pollution improvement that would result from reduction targets for SO2 and NOx emissions during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015). Three scenarios are established for the objective year 2015 based on the reference emissions in base year 2010. Scenario analysis and modeling results show that emissions are projected to increase by 26.5% for SO2 and 138.0% for NOx in 2015 Business-As-Usual (BAU) relative to base year 2010, respectively, which will lead to a substantial worsening tendency of SO2 and NOx pollution. In comparison, both the 2015 Policy Reduction (PR) and 2015 Intensive Policy Reduction (IPR) scenarios would contribute to improve the urban air quality. Under 2015 PR scenario, the maximum annual average concentration of SO2 and NOx will reduce by 54.9% and 31.7%, respectively, relative to the year 2010, with only 2.1% of all individual gridded receptors exceed the national air quality standard limits; while the maximum annual average concentrations of SO2 and NOx can reduce further under 2015 IPR scenario and comply well with standards limits. In view of the technical feasibility and cost-effectiveness, the emission reduction targets set in the 2015 PR scenario are regarded as more reasonable in order to further improve the air quality in Guiyang during the 12th FYP period and a series of comprehensive countermeasures should be effectively implemented.

Areal-reduction factors for the precipitation of the 1-day design storm in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.

1999-01-01

The reduction of the precipitation depth from a design storm for a point to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed often is important for cost-effective design of hydraulic structures by reducing the volume of precipitation. A design storm for a point is the depth of precipitation that has a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). The effective depth can be calculated by multiplying the design-storm depth by an areal-reduction factor (ARF). ARF ranges from 0 to 1, varies with the recurrence interval of the design storm, and is a function of watershed characteristics such as watershed size and shape, geographic location, and time of year that the design storm occurs. This report documents an investigation of ARF by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, for the 1-day design storm for Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The ?annual maxima-centered? approach used in this report specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual precipitation maxima. Unlike previously established approaches, the annual maxima-centered approach does not require the spatial averaging of precipitation nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. Graphs of the relation between ARF and circular watershed area (to about 7,000 square miles) are provided, and a technique to calculate ARF for noncircular watersheds is discussed.

Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest carbon loss from dead trees. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of drought impact on forest carbon stocks at the continental level and will provide critical data for future model improvement to better predict the vegetation mortality under droughts.

20 CFR 30.805 - What evidence does OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced compensable wage-loss... OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced... the Social Security Administration to establish a covered Part E employee's presumed average annual...

20 CFR 30.805 - What evidence does OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced compensable wage-loss... OWCP use to determine a covered Part E employee's average annual wage and whether he or she experienced... the Social Security Administration to establish a covered Part E employee's presumed average annual...

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-02-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23%, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23 %, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Price and welfare effects of a pharmaceutical substitution reform.

PubMed

Granlund, David

2010-12-01

The price effects of the Swedish pharmaceutical substitution reform are analyzed using data for a panel of all pharmaceutical product sold in Sweden in 1997-2007. The price reduction due to the reform was estimated to average 10% and was found to be significantly larger for brand-name pharmaceuticals than for generics. The results also imply that the reform amplified the effect that generic entry has on brand-name prices by a factor of 10. Results of a demand estimation imply that the price reductions increased total pharmaceutical consumption by 8% and consumer welfare by SEK 2.7 billion annually. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mount St. Helens Long-Term Sediment Management Plan for Flood Risk Reduction

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

one dredge would direct pump to the Wasser Winters disposal site, located along the southern bank of the Cowlitz River mouth. The average annual...dredge would pipeline pump either upstream to disposal site 20cde or downstream to the Wasser Winters site. Pumping distances would not exceed 6.0...estimates referenced the Wasser Winters upland preparation estimates and were based on the relationship between acreage and effort. Total site

Estimating the potential health impact and costs of implementing a local policy for food procurement to reduce the consumption of sodium in the county of Los Angeles.

PubMed

Gase, Lauren N; Kuo, Tony; Dunet, Diane; Schmidt, Steven M; Simon, Paul A; Fielding, Jonathan E

2011-08-01

We examined approaches to reduce sodium content of food served in settings operated or funded by the government of the County of Los Angeles, California. We adapted health impact assessment methods to mathematically simulate various levels of reduction in the sodium content of food served by the County of Los Angeles and to estimate the reductions' potential impacts on mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) among food-service customers. We used data provided by county government food-service vendors to generate these simulations. Our analysis predicted that if the postulated sodium-reduction strategies were implemented, adults would consume, on average, 233 fewer milligrams of sodium each day. This would correspond to an average decrease of 0.71 millimeters of mercury in SBP among adult hypertensives, 388 fewer cases of uncontrolled hypertension in the study population, and an annual decrease of $629,724 in direct health care costs. Our findings suggest that a food-procurement policy can contribute to positive health and economic effects at the local level. Our approach may serve as an example of sodium-reduction analysis for other jurisdictions to follow.

Special Diabetes Program for Indians: Retention in Cardiovascular Risk Reduction

PubMed Central

Manson, Spero M.; Jiang, Luohua; Zhang, Lijing; Beals, Janette; Acton, Kelly J.; Roubideaux, Yvette

2011-01-01

Purpose: This study examined the associations between participant and site characteristics and retention in a multisite cardiovascular disease risk reduction project. Design and Methods: Data were derived from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart Demonstration Project, an intervention to reduce cardiovascular risk among American Indians and Alaska Natives with diabetes. In 2006, a total of 1,072 participants from 30 participating sites completed baseline questionnaires measuring demographics and sociobehavioral factors. They also underwent a medical examination at baseline and were reassessed annually after baseline. A Provider Annual Questionnaire was administered to staff members of each grantee site at the end of each year to assess site characteristics. Generalized estimating equation models were used to evaluate the relationships between participant and site characteristics and retention 1 year after baseline. Results: Among enrolled participants, 792 (74%) completed their first annual assessment. Participants who completed the first annual assessment tended to be older and had, at baseline, higher body mass index and higher level of physical activity. Site characteristics associated with retention included average age of staff, proportion of female staff members, and percentage of staff members having completed graduate or professional school. Implications: Understanding successful retention must reach beyond individual characteristics of participants to include features of the settings that house the interventions. PMID:21565816

Quantifying the association between obesity, automobile travel, and caloric intake.

PubMed

Behzad, Banafsheh; King, Douglas M; Jacobson, Sheldon H

2013-02-01

The objective of this study is to assess the association between average adult body mass index (BMI), automobile travel, and caloric intake in the US in order to predict future trends of adult obesity. Annual BMI data (1984-2010) from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), vehicle miles traveled data (1970-2009) from the Federal Highway Administration, licensed drivers data (1970-2009) from the Federal Highway Administration, and adult average daily caloric intake data (1970-2009) from the US Department of Agriculture were collected. A statistical model is proposed to capture multicollinearity across the independent variables. The proposed statistical model provides an estimate of changes in the average adult BMI associated with changes in automobile travel and caloric intake. According to this model, reducing daily automobile travel by one mile per driver would be associated with a 0.21 kg/m(2) reduction in the national average BMI after six years. Reducing daily caloric intake by 100 calories per person would be associated with a 0.16 kg/m(2) reduction in the national average BMI after three years. Making small changes in travel or diet choices may lead to comparable obesity interventions, implying that travel-based interventions may be as effective as dietary interventions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating total maximum daily loads with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory; Jones, Susan Cheung

2017-01-01

The Massachusetts Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Rhode Island DOT are assessing and addressing roadway contributions to total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Example analyses for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and total zinc in highway runoff were done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with FHWA to simulate long-term annual loads for TMDL analyses with the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model known as SELDM. Concentration statistics from 19 highway runoff monitoring sites in Massachusetts were used with precipitation statistics from 11 long-term monitoring sites to simulate long-term pavement yields (loads per unit area). Highway sites were stratified by traffic volume or surrounding land use to calculate concentration statistics for rural roads, low-volume highways, high-volume highways, and ultraurban highways. The median of the event mean concentration statistics in each traffic volume category was used to simulate annual yields from pavement for a 29- or 30-year period. Long-term average yields for total nitrogen, phosphorus, and zinc from rural roads are lower than yields from the other categories, but yields of sediment are higher than for the low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected water quality constituents from high-volume highways are 1.35 to 2.52 times the associated yields from low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected constituents from ultraurban highways are 1.52 to 3.46 times the associated yields from high-volume highways. Example simulations indicate that both concentration reduction and flow reduction by structural best management practices are crucial for reducing runoff yields.

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Cardoso, Rita M.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (< 10% for both scenarios), negative values in winter and spring (up to - 10% (- 20%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)), and stronger negative anomalies in autumn (up to - 25% (- 35%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)). These projected WED anomalies displayed large sub-regional variability. The largest reductions (and lowest increases) are linked to the northern and central-eastern elevated terrain, and the southwestern coast. In contrast, the largest increases (and lowest reductions) are linked to the central-western orographic features of moderate elevation. The projections also showed changes in inter-annual variability of WED, with small increases for annual averages, but with distinct behavior when considering year-to-year variability over a specific season: small increases in winter, larger increases in summer, slight decrease in autumn, and no relevant change in spring. The changes in inter-annual variability also displayed strong dependence on the underlying terrain. Finally, we found significant model spread in the magnitude of projected WED anomalies and inter-annual variability, affecting even the signal of the changes.

Improved vertical displacements induced by a refined thermal expansion model and its quantitative analysis in GPS height time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaihua; Chen, Hua; Jiang, Weiping; Li, Zhao; Ma, Yifang; Deng, Liansheng

2018-04-01

There are apparent seasonal variations in GPS height time series, and thermal expansion is considered to be one of the potential geophysical contributors. The displacements introduced by thermal expansion are usually derived without considering the annex height and underground part of the monument (e.g. located on roof or top of the buildings), which may bias the geophysical explanation of the seasonal oscillation. In this paper, the improved vertical displacements are derived by a refined thermal expansion model where the annex height and underground depth of the monument are taken into account, and then 560 IGS stations are adopted to validate the modeled thermal expansion (MTE) displacements. In order to evaluate the impact of thermal expansion on GPS heights, the MTE displacements of 80 IGS stations with less data discontinuities are selected to compare with their observed GPS vertical (OGV) displacements with the modeled surface loading (MSL) displacements removed in advance. Quantitative analysis results show the maximum annual and semiannual amplitudes of the MTE are 6.65 mm (NOVJ) and 0.51 mm (IISC), respectively, and the maximum peak-to-peak oscillation of the MTE displacements can be 19.4 mm. The average annual amplitude reductions are 0.75 mm and 1.05 mm respectively after removing the MTE and MSL displacements from the OGV, indicating the seasonal oscillation induced by thermal expansion is equivalent to >75% of the impact of surface loadings. However, there are rarely significant reductions for the semiannual amplitude. Given the result in this study that thermal expansion can explain 17.3% of the annual amplitude in GPS heights on average, it must be precisely modeled both in GPS precise data processing and GPS time series analysis, especially for those stations located in the middle and high latitudes with larger annual temperature oscillation, or stations with higher monument.

An Efficient Buchwald-Hartwig/Reductive Cyclization for the Scaffold Diversification of Halogenated Phenazines: Potent Antibacterial Targeting, Biofilm Eradication, and Prodrug Exploration.

PubMed

Garrison, Aaron T; Abouelhassan, Yasmeen; Kallifidas, Dimitris; Tan, Hao; Kim, Young S; Jin, Shouguang; Luesch, Hendrik; Huigens, Robert W

2018-05-10

Bacterial biofilms are surface-attached communities comprised of nonreplicating persister cells housed within a protective extracellular matrix. Biofilms display tolerance toward conventional antibiotics, occur in ∼80% of infections, and lead to >500000 deaths annually. We recently identified halogenated phenazine (HP) analogues which demonstrate biofilm-eradicating activities against priority pathogens; however, the synthesis of phenazines presents limitations. Herein, we report a refined HP synthesis which expedited the identification of improved biofilm-eradicating agents. 1-Methoxyphenazine scaffolds were generated through a Buchwald-Hartwig cross-coupling (70% average yield) and subsequent reductive cyclization (68% average yield), expediting the discovery of potent biofilm-eradicating HPs (e.g., 61: MRSA BAA-1707 MBEC = 4.69 μM). We also developed bacterial-selective prodrugs (reductively activated quinone-alkyloxycarbonyloxymethyl moiety) to afford HP 87, which demonstrated excellent antibacterial and biofilm eradication activities against MRSA BAA-1707 (MIC = 0.15 μM, MBEC = 12.5 μM). Furthermore, active HPs herein exhibit negligible cytotoxic or hemolytic effects, highlighting their potential to target biofilms.

Climatological Data For Clouds Over the Globe From Surface Observations, 1982-1991: The Total Cloud Edition (1994) (NDP-026a)

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, Carole J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); Warren, Stephen G. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; London, Julius [Department of Astrophysical, Planetary, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

1994-01-01

Routine, synoptic surface weather reports from ships and land stations over the entire globe, for the10-year period December 1981 through November 1991, were processed for total cloud cover and the frequencies of occurrence of clear sky, sky-obscured due to precipitation, and sky-obscured due to fog. Archived data, consisting of various annual, seasonal and monthly averages, are provided in grid boxes that are typically 2.5° × 2.5° for land and 5° × 5° for ocean. Day and nighttime averages are also given separately for each season. Several derived quantities, such as interannual variations and annual and diurnal harmonics, are provided as well. This data set incorporates an improved representation of nighttime cloudiness by utilizing only those nighttime observations for which the illuminance due to moonlight exceeds a specified threshold. This reduction in the night-detection bias increases the computed global average total cloud cover by about 2%. The impact on computed diurnal cycles is even greater, particularly over the oceans where it is found (in contrast to previous surface-based climatologies), that cloudiness is often greater at night than during the day.

Geohydrology of the French Creek basin and simulated effects of droughtand ground-water withdrawals, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.

2004-01-01

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Delaware River Basin Commission, to develop a regional ground-water-flow model of the French Creek Basin in Chester County, Pa. The model was used to assist water-resource managers by illustrating the interconnection between ground-water and surface-water systems. The 70.7-mi2 (square mile) French Creek Basin is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province and is underlain by crystalline and sedimentary fractured-rock aquifers. Annual water budgets were calculated for 1969-2001 for the French Creek Basin upstream of streamflow measurement station French Creek near Phoenixville (01472157). Average annual precipitation was 46.28 in. (inches), average annual streamflow was 20.29 in., average annual base flow determined by hydrograph separation was 12.42 in., and estimated average annual ET (evapotranspiration) was 26.10 in. Estimated average annual recharge was 14.32 in. and is equal to 31 percent of the average annual precipitation. Base flow made up an average of 61 percent of streamflow. Ground-water flow in the French Creek Basin was simulated using the finite-difference MODFLOW-96 computer program. The model structure is based on a simplified two-dimensional conceptualization of the ground-water-flow system. The modeled area was extended outside the French Creek Basin to natural hydrologic boundaries; the modeled area includes 40 mi2 of adjacent areas outside the basin. The hydraulic conductivity for each geologic unit was calculated from reported specific-capacity data determined from aquifer tests and was adjusted during model calibration. The model was calibrated for aboveaverage conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on May 1, 2001, using a recharge rate of 20 in/yr (inches per year). The model was calibrated for below-average conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on September 11 and 17, 2001, using a recharge rate of 6.2 in/yr. Average conditions were simulated by adjusting the recharge rate until simulated streamflow at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 matched the long-term (1968-2001) average base flow of 54.1 cubic feet per second. The recharge rate used for average conditions was 15.7 in/yr. The effect of drought in the French Creek Basin was simulated using a drought year recharge rate of 8 in/yr for 3 months. After 3 months of drought, the simulated streamflow of French Creek at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 decreased 34 percent. The simulations show that after 6 months of average recharge (15.7 in/yr) following drought, streamflow and water levels recovered almost to pre-drought conditions. The effect of increased ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow in the South Branch French Creek Subbasin was simulated under average and drought conditions with pumping rates equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the Delaware River Basin Commission Ground Water Protected Area (GWPA) withdrawal limit (1,393 million gallons per year) with all pumped water removed from the basin. For average recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 18, 28, and 37 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. After 3 months of drought recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 27, 40, and 52 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. The effect of well location on base flow, water levels, and the sources of water to the well was simulated by locating a hypothetical well pumping 200 gallons per minute in different places in the Beaver Run Subbasin with all pumped water removed from the basin. The smallest reduction in the base flow of Beaver Run was from a well on the drainage divide

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

Trade-offs among ecosystem services in a typical Karst watershed, SW China.

PubMed

Tian, Yichao; Wang, Shijie; Bai, Xiaoyong; Luo, Guangjie; Xu, Yan

2016-10-01

Nowadays, most research results on ecosystem services in Karst areas are limited to a single function of an ecosystem service. Few scholars conduct a comparative study on the mutual relationships among ecosystem services, let alone reveal the trade-off and synergic relationships in typical Karst watershed. This research aims to understand and quantitatively evaluate the relationships among ecosystem services in a typical Karst watershed, broaden the depth and width of trade-off and synergic relationships in ecosystem services and explore a set of technical processes involved in these relationships. With the Shibantang Karst watershed in China as the research site, we explore the trade-off and synergic relationships of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and sediment yield by coupling Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA), and simulating and evaluating these three ecosystem services between 2000 and 2010. Results of this study are as follows. (1) The annual average water yield decreased from 528mm in 2000 to 513mm in 2010, decreasing by 2.84%. (2) The annual average sediment yield decreased from 26.15t/ha in 2000 to 23.81t/ha in 2010, with an average annual reduction of 0.23t/ha. (3) The annual average NPP increased from 739.38gCm(-2)a(-1) in 2000 to 746.25gCm(-2)a(-1) in 2010, increasing by 6.87gCm(-2)a(-1) . (4) Water yield and sediment yield are in a synergic relationship. The increase of water yield can accumulate the soil erosion amount. NPP is in a trade-off relationship with water yield and sediment yield. The improvement of NPP is good for decreasing water yield and soil erosion amount and increasing soil conservation amount. This study provides policy makers and planners an approach to develop an integrated model, as well as design mapping and monitoring protocols for land use change and ecosystem service assessments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimated medical cost reductions for paliperidone palmitate vs placebo in a randomized, double-blind relapse-prevention trial of patients with schizoaffective disorder.

PubMed

Joshi, K; Lin, J; Lingohr-Smith, M; Fu, D J

2015-01-01

The objective of this economic model was to estimate the difference in medical costs among patients treated with paliperidone palmitate once-monthly injectable antipsychotic (PP1M) vs placebo, based on clinical event rates reported in the 15-month randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group study of paliperidone palmitate evaluating time to relapse in subjects with schizoaffective disorder. Rates of psychotic, depressive, and/or manic relapses and serious and non-serious treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were obtained from the long-term paliperidone palmitate vs placebo relapse prevention study. The total annual medical cost for a relapse from a US payer perspective was obtained from published literature and the costs for serious and non-serious TEAEs were based on Common Procedure Terminology codes. Total annual medical cost differences for patients treated with PP1M vs placebo were then estimated. Additionally, one-way and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were conducted. Lower rates of relapse (-18.3%) and serious TEAEs (-3.9%) were associated with use of PP1M vs placebo as reported in the long-term paliperidone palmitate vs placebo relapse prevention study. As a result of the reduction in these clinical event rates, the total annual medical cost was reduced by $7140 per patient treated with PP1M vs placebo. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that variations in relapse rates had the greatest impact on the estimated medical cost differences (range: -$9786, -$4670). Of the 10,000 random cycles of Monte Carlo simulations, 100% showed a medical cost difference <$0 (reduction) for patients using PPIM vs placebo. The average total annual medical differences per patient were -$8321 for PP1M monotherapy and -$6031 for PPIM adjunctive therapy. Use of PP1M for treatment of patients with schizoaffective disorder was associated with a significantly lower rate of relapse and a reduction in medical costs compared to placebo. Further evaluation in the real-world setting is warranted.

50 CFR 217.172 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... dolphin (Grampus griseus)—100 (an average of 20 annually). (vi) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—100 (an... right whale (Eubalaena glacialis)—120 (an average of 24 annually). (ii) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—145 (an average of 29 annually). (iii) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—390 (an average of 78...

50 CFR 217.172 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... dolphin (Grampus griseus)—100 (an average of 20 annually). (vi) Killer whale (Orcinus orca)—100 (an... right whale (Eubalaena glacialis)—120 (an average of 24 annually). (ii) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—145 (an average of 29 annually). (iii) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—390 (an average of 78...

Extended Policies case

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) Extended Policies case includes selected policies that go beyond current laws and regulations. Existing tax credits that have scheduled reductions and sunset dates are assumed to remain unchanged through 2040. Other efficiency policies, including corporate average fuel economy standards, appliance standards, and building codes, are expanded beyond current provisions; and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Clean Power Plan (CPP) regulations that reduce carbon dioxide emissions from electric power generation are tightened after 2030.

Air pollution, public health, and inflation

PubMed Central

Ostro, Bart David

1980-01-01

Since the passage of the environmental legislation in the early 1970's, critics have attacked these laws as being unnecessary and for contributing significantly to the problem of inflation in the United States. This paper is an attempt to put the inflationary costs of air pollution into perspective by considering them in light of the cost, especially to public health, of not proceeding with pollution control. There is now a great deal of evidence that the concentration of certain pollutants in the air can contribute significantly to the incidence of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and to certain forms of cancer. On the basis of the results of a recent study of the impacts of pollution control on inflation, the annual reduction in purchasing power of the average family is calculated to be $31 per family. To determine the average costs of air pollution on human health, research by Lave and Seskin is utilized. First, the implications of air pollution for mortality and morbidity rates are determined. Then, the reduction in direct health costs and indirect costs (lost productivity of workers) as a result of pollution abatement is estimated. These annual health costs from pollution total approximately $250 per family. The results suggest that the inflationary costs of air pollution control are more than offset by the damages to public health from unabated air pollution. PMID:6771129

Modeling nexus of urban heat island mitigation strategies with electricity/power usage and consumer costs: a case study for Phoenix, Arizona, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Humberto; Fillpot, Baron S.

2018-01-01

A reduction in both power and electricity usage was determined using a previously validated zero-dimensional energy balance model that implements mitigation strategies used to reduce the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The established model has been applied to show the change in urban characteristic temperature when executing four common mitigation strategies: increasing the overall (1) emissivity, (2) vegetated area, (3) thermal conductivity, and (4) albedo of the urban environment in a series of increases by 5, 10, 15, and 20% from baseline values. Separately, a correlation analysis was performed involving meteorological data and total daily energy (TDE) consumption where the 24-h average temperature was shown to have the greatest correlation to electricity service data in the Phoenix, Arizona, USA, metropolitan region. A methodology was then developed for using the model to predict TDE consumption reduction and corresponding cost-saving analysis when implementing the four mitigation strategies. The four modeled UHI mitigation strategies, taken in combination, would lead to the largest percent reduction in annual energy usage, where increasing the thermal conductivity is the single most effective mitigation strategy. The single least effective mitigation strategy, increasing the emissivity by 5% from the baseline value, resulted in an average calculated reduction of about 1570 GWh in yearly energy usage with a corresponding 157 million dollar cost savings. When the four parameters were increased in unison by 20% from baseline values, an average calculated reduction of about 2050 GWh in yearly energy usage was predicted with a corresponding 205 million dollar cost savings.

Bookending the Opportunity to Lower Wind’s LCOE by Reducing the Uncertainty Surrounding Annual Energy Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark

Reducing the performance risk surrounding a wind project can potentially lead to a lower weighted-average cost of capital (WACC), and hence a lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE), through an advantageous shift in capital structure, and possibly also a reduction in the cost of capital. Specifically, a reduction in performance risk will move the 1-year P99 annual energy production (AEP) estimate closer to the P50 AEP estimate, which in turn reduces the minimum debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) required by lenders, thereby allowing the project to be financed with a greater proportion of low-cost debt. In addition, a reduction inmore » performance risk might also reduce the cost of one or more of the three sources of capital that are commonly used to finance wind projects: sponsor or cash equity, tax equity, and/or debt. Preliminary internal LBNL analysis of the maximum possible LCOE reduction attainable from reducing the performance risk of a wind project found a potentially significant opportunity for LCOE reduction of ~$10/MWh, by reducing the P50 DSCR to its theoretical minimum value of 1.0 (Bolinger 2015b, 2014) and by reducing the cost of sponsor equity and debt by one-third to one-half each (Bolinger 2015a, 2015b). However, with FY17 funding from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) Performance Risk, Uncertainty, and Finance (PRUF) initiative, LBNL has been revisiting this “bookending” exercise in more depth, and now believes that its earlier preliminary assessment of the LCOE reduction opportunity was overstated. This reassessment is based on two new-found understandings: (1) Due to ever-present and largely irreducible inter-annual variability (IAV) in the wind resource, the minimum required DSCR cannot possibly fall to 1.0 (on a P50 basis), and (2) A reduction in AEP uncertainty will not necessarily lead to a reduction in the cost of capital, meaning that a shift in capital structure is perhaps the best that can be expected (perhaps along with a modest decline in the cost of cash equity as new investors enter the market).« less

The Relationship between Age at First Birth and Mother's Lifetime Earnings: Evidence from Danish Data

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Having children creates career interruptions and reductions in labor income for women. This study documents the relation between the age at first birth (AFB) and women’s labor income. We study these dynamics in the short run (i.e. ratio between labor income at AFB and two years prior to AFB) and long run (i.e., positive/negative differences in total lifetime labor income). Methods Using unique Danish administrative register data for the entire Danish population, we estimate the age-income profiles separately for college and non-college women conditional on marital status, and mothers’ age at first birth (AFB). We compute the lifetime labor income differentials by taking the differences between the labor income of women with and without children at each AFB. Results The short-run loss in labor income, defined as the difference in percentages between the income earned two years prior to AFB and income earned at AFB, ranges from 37% to 65% for college women and from 40% to 53% for non-college women. These losses decrease monotonically with respect to AFB for both education groups. Our results on the lifetime labor income differentials between mothers and women without children also show a net effect that is monotonic (from negative to positive) in AFB. With AFB<25, the lifetime labor income loss for college women is -204% of their average annual labor income and this figure is -252% for non-college women. There are lifetime labor income gains with AFB>31. The largest gains for college women are 13% of their average annual income and this figure is 50% for non-college women. Conclusion Women have a large and unambiguous short-run reduction in labor income at their AFB. In terms of lifetime labor income, both college and non-college women, compared to childless women, are associated with lower income of more than twice their respective average annual income when bearing a child at AFB<25. In other words, women with AFB<25 are associated with a lower lifetime income of more than two years of annual labor income. The lifetime labor incomes for college and non-college women associated with AFB>31 are relatively higher. PMID:26799481

Michigan Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2012 IECC as Compared to the Michigan Uniform Energy Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-07-03

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) yields positive benefits for Michigan homeowners. Moving to the 2012 IECC from the Michigan Uniform Energy Code is cost-effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Michigan homeowners will save $10,081 with the 2012 IECC. Each year, the reduction to energy bills will significantly exceed increased mortgage costs. After accounting for up-front costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceeding cumulative cash outlays) in 1 year for the 2012 IECC. Average annual energy savings are $604 for the 2012 IECC.

Ohio Energy and Cost Savings for New Single- and Multifamily Homes: 2012 IECC as Compared to the 2009 IECC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Robert G.; Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

2012-07-03

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) yields positive benefits for Ohio homeowners. Moving to the 2012 IECC from the 2009 IECC is cost-effective over a 30-year life cycle. On average, Ohio homeowners will save $5,151 with the 2012 IECC. Each year, the reduction to energy bills will significantly exceed increased mortgage costs. After accounting for up-front costs and additional costs financed in the mortgage, homeowners should see net positive cash flows (i.e., cumulative savings exceeding cumulative cash outlays) in 1 year for the 2012 IECC. Average annual energy savings are $330 for the 2012 IECC.

Models for the Economics of Resilience

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Stanley; Ayyub, Bilal M.

2016-01-01

Estimating the economic burden of disasters requires appropriate models that account for key characteristics and decision making needs. Natural disasters in 2011 resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Average annual losses in the US amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to significant savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics with models for examining the economics of resilience. This paper provides such microeconomic models, compares them, examines their sensitivities to key parameters, and illustrates their uses. Such models enable improving the resiliency of systems to meet target levels. PMID:28133626

Models for the Economics of Resilience.

PubMed

Gilbert, Stanley; Ayyub, Bilal M

2016-12-01

Estimating the economic burden of disasters requires appropriate models that account for key characteristics and decision making needs. Natural disasters in 2011 resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Average annual losses in the US amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to significant savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics with models for examining the economics of resilience. This paper provides such microeconomic models, compares them, examines their sensitivities to key parameters, and illustrates their uses. Such models enable improving the resiliency of systems to meet target levels.

Albedo impact on the suitability of biochar systems to mitigate global warming.

PubMed

Meyer, Sebastian; Bright, Ryan M; Fischer, Daniel; Schulz, Hardy; Glaser, Bruno

2012-11-20

Biochar application to agricultural soils can change the surface albedo which could counteract the climate mitigation benefit of biochar systems. However, the size of this impact has not yet been quantified. Based on empirical albedo measurements and literature data of arable soils mixed with biochar, a model for annual vegetation cover development based on satellite data and an assessment of the annual development of surface humidity, an average mean annual albedo reduction of 0.05 has been calculated for applying 30-32 Mg ha(-1) biochar on a test field near Bayreuth, Germany. The impact of biochar production and application on the carbon cycle and on the soil albedo was integrated into the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of a modeled pyrolysis based biochar system via the computation of global warming potential (GWP) characterization factors. The analysis resulted in a reduction of the overall climate mitigation benefit of biochar systems by 13-22% due to the albedo change as compared to an analysis which disregards the albedo effect. Comparing the use of the same quantity of biomass in a biochar system to a bioenergy district heating system which replaces natural gas combustion, bioenergy heating systems achieve 99-119% of the climate benefit of biochar systems according to the model calculation.

Estimating annualized earthquake losses for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope

2015-01-01

We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.

50 CFR 218.171 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...); (2) Northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus)—220 (an average of 44 annually); (3) California sea lion (Zalophus californianus)—570 (an average of 114 annually); (4) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—70 (an average of 14 annually); (5) Harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardsi) (Washington Inland...

50 CFR 216.272 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... electra)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (S) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (T) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (U) Killer whale... percent of the number of takes indicated below): (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera...

50 CFR 217.142 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... method and amount of take: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Cetaceans: (A) Bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus)—75 (an average of 15 annually) (B) Gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus)—10 (an average of 2 annually) (C) Beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas)—100 (an average of 20 annually) (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Ringed...

The sterile-male-release technique in Great Lakes sea lamprey management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twohey, Michael B.; Heinrich, John W.; Seelye, James G.; Fredricks, Kim T.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Kaye, Cheryl A.; Scholefield, Ron J.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Christie, Gavin C.

2003-01-01

The implementation of a sterile-male-release technique from 1991 through 1999 and evaluation of its effectiveness in the Great Lakes sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) management program is reviewed. Male sea lampreys were injected with the chemosterilant bisazir (P,P-bis(1-aziridinyl)-N-methylphosphinothioic amide) using a robotic device. Quality assurance testing indicated the device delivered a consistent and effective dose of bisazir. Viability of embryos in an untreated control group was 64% compared to 1% in a treatment group. A task force developed nine hypotheses to guide implementation and evaluation of the technique. An annual average of 26,000 male sea lampreys was harvested from as many as 17 Great Lakes tributaries for use in the technique. An annual average of 16,100 sterilized males was released into 33 tributaries of Lake Superior to achieve a theoretical 59% reduction in larval production during 1991 to 1996. The average number of sterile males released in the St. Marys River increased from 4,000 during 1991 to 1996 to 20,100 during 1997 to 1999. The theoretical reduc-stertion in reproduction when combined with trapping was 57% during 1991 to 1996 and 86% during 1997 to 1999. Evaluation studies demonstrated that sterilized males were competitive and reduced production of larvae in streams. Field studies and simulation models suggest reductions in reproduction will result in fewer recruits, but there is risk of periodic high recruitment events independent of sterile-male release. Strategies to reduce reproduction will be most reliable when low densities of reproducing females are achieved. Expansion of the technique is limited by access to additional males for sterilization. Sterile-male release and other alternative controls are important in delivering integrated pest management and in reducing reliance on pesticides.

Long-term study of urban ultrafine particles and other pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yungang; Hopke, Philip K.; Chalupa, David C.; Utell, Mark J.

2011-12-01

Continuous measurements of number size distributions of ultrafine particles (UFPs) and other pollutants (PM 2.5, SO 2, CO and O 3) have been performed in Rochester, New York since late November 2001. The 2002-2009 average number concentrations of particles in three size ranges (10-50 nm, 50-100 nm and 100-500 nm) were 4730 cm -3, 1838 cm -3, and 1073 cm -3, respectively. The lowest annual average number concentrations of particles in 10-50 nm and 50-100 nm were observed during 2008-2009. The lowest monthly average number concentration of 10-50 nm particles was observed in July and the highest in February. The daily patterns of 10-50 nm particles had two peaks at early morning (7-8 AM) and early afternoon (2 PM). There was a distinct declining trend in the peak number concentrations from 2002-2005 to 2008-2009. Large reductions in SO 2 concentrations associated with northerly winds between 2007 and 2009 were observed. The most significant annual decrease in the frequency of morning particle nucleation was observed from 2005 to 2007. The monthly variation in the morning nucleation events showed a close correlation with number concentrations of 10-50 nm particles ( r = 0.89). The frequency of the local SO 2-related nucleation events was much higher before 2006. All of these results suggest significant impacts of highway traffic and industrial sources. The decrease in particle number concentrations and particle nucleation events likely resulted from a combination of the U.S. EPA 2007 Heavy-Duty Highway Rule implemented on October 1, 2006, the closure of a large coal-fired power plant in May 2008, and the reduction of Eastman Kodak emissions.

RCCM2-BATS model over tropical South America: Applications to tropical deforestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E.

A multiyear simulation of the global climate uses a revised version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 2 (CCM2) coupled to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). It is compared with global and rain gauge precipitation climatologies to evaluate precipitation fields and European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts analyses to evaluate the atmospheric circulation. The near-surface climate is compared with data from Amazonian field campaigns. The model simulation of the South American climate agrees closely with the observational record and is much improved from past simulations with previous versions of the NCAR Community Climate model overmore » this portion of the Tropics. The model is then used to study the local and regional response to tropical deforestation over Amazonia. In addition to the standard deforestation forcing, consisting mainly of increased albedo and decreased roughness length, two additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the individual contributions from these forcings to the deforestation changes. The standard deforestation simulation shows slight increases in annually averaged surface temperature (+1{degrees}C) and reductions in annually averaged precipitation and evaporation (-363 and -149 mm yr{sup -1}, respectively). As expected, increases in surface albedo over Amazonia produce a reduction in net downward solar radiation at the surface and consequently a reduction in net surface radiation and surface latent heat flux. The roughness decrease, on the other hand, reduces the surface latent heat fluxes through decreases in the surface drag coefficient. The regional changes in moisture convergence and precipitation during the Amazonian wet season display a shift in the area of maximum precipitation rather than an overall decrease over the deforested area. 45 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Breast Cancer Screening for Women at Average Risk: 2015 Guideline Update From the American Cancer Society.

PubMed

Oeffinger, Kevin C; Fontham, Elizabeth T H; Etzioni, Ruth; Herzig, Abbe; Michaelson, James S; Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Walter, Louise C; Church, Timothy R; Flowers, Christopher R; LaMonte, Samuel J; Wolf, Andrew M D; DeSantis, Carol; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Andrews, Kimberly; Manassaram-Baptiste, Deana; Saslow, Debbie; Smith, Robert A; Brawley, Otis W; Wender, Richard

2015-10-20

Breast cancer is a leading cause of premature mortality among US women. Early detection has been shown to be associated with reduced breast cancer morbidity and mortality. To update the American Cancer Society (ACS) 2003 breast cancer screening guideline for women at average risk for breast cancer. The ACS commissioned a systematic evidence review of the breast cancer screening literature to inform the update and a supplemental analysis of mammography registry data to address questions related to the screening interval. Formulation of recommendations was based on the quality of the evidence and judgment (incorporating values and preferences) about the balance of benefits and harms. Screening mammography in women aged 40 to 69 years is associated with a reduction in breast cancer deaths across a range of study designs, and inferential evidence supports breast cancer screening for women 70 years and older who are in good health. Estimates of the cumulative lifetime risk of false-positive examination results are greater if screening begins at younger ages because of the greater number of mammograms, as well as the higher recall rate in younger women. The quality of the evidence for overdiagnosis is not sufficient to estimate a lifetime risk with confidence. Analysis examining the screening interval demonstrates more favorable tumor characteristics when premenopausal women are screened annually vs biennially. Evidence does not support routine clinical breast examination as a screening method for women at average risk. The ACS recommends that women with an average risk of breast cancer should undergo regular screening mammography starting at age 45 years (strong recommendation). Women aged 45 to 54 years should be screened annually (qualified recommendation). Women 55 years and older should transition to biennial screening or have the opportunity to continue screening annually (qualified recommendation). Women should have the opportunity to begin annual screening between the ages of 40 and 44 years (qualified recommendation). Women should continue screening mammography as long as their overall health is good and they have a life expectancy of 10 years or longer (qualified recommendation). The ACS does not recommend clinical breast examination for breast cancer screening among average-risk women at any age (qualified recommendation). These updated ACS guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations for breast cancer screening for women at average risk of breast cancer. These recommendations should be considered by physicians and women in discussions about breast cancer screening.

Reduced mercury deposition in New Hampshire from 1996 to 2002 due to changes in local sources.

PubMed

Han, Young-Ji; Holsen, Thomas M; Evers, David C; Driscoll, Charles T

2008-12-01

Changes in deposition of gaseous divalent mercury (Hg(II)) and particulate mercury (Hg(p)) in New Hampshire due to changes in local sources from 1996 to 2002 were assessed using the Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST3) model (regional and global sources and Hg atmospheric reactions were not considered). Mercury (Hg) emissions in New Hampshire and adjacent areas decreased significantly (from 1540 to 880 kg yr(-1)) during this period, and the average annual modeled deposition of total Hg also declined from 17 to 7.0 microg m(-2) yr(-1) for the same period. In 2002, the maximum amount of Hg deposition was modeled to be in southern New Hampshire, while for 1996 the maximum deposition occurred farther north and east. The ISCST3 was also used to evaluate two future scenarios. The average percent difference in deposition across all cells was 5% for the 50% reduction scenario and 9% for the 90% reduction scenario.

The Health Impacts of Energy Policy Pathways in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: A Total Exposure Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, L. A.; Damdinsuren, Y.; Olkhanud, P. B.; Smith, K. R.; Turner, J. R.; Edwards, R.; Odsuren, M.; Ochir, C.

2015-12-01

Ulaanbaatar is home to nearly half of Mongolia's 2.8 million residents. The city's rapid growth, frigid winters, valley topography, and reliance on coal-fired stoves have led to some of the worst winter pollution levels in the world. To better understand this issue, we modeled integrated PM2.5exposures and related health impacts for various city-wide heating policies through 2024. This assessment is one of the first to employ a total exposure approach and results of the 2014 Comparative Risk Assessments of the Global Burden of Disease Project (CRA/GBD) in a policy-relevant energy study. Emissions related to heating, traffic, and power generation were considered under Business as Usual, Moderate Improvement, and Max Improvement scenarios. Calibrated outdoor models were combined with indoor models, local infiltration and time activity estimates, and demographic projections to estimate PM2.5exposures in 2014 and 2024. Indoor exposures were assigned by heating type, home type, and smoking status; outdoor exposures were assigned through geocoding. Population average annual exposures were calculated and applied to local disease rates and integrated exposure-response curves (2014 CRA/GBD) to arrive at annual projections of premature deaths and DALYs. We estimate 2014 annual average exposures at 68 μg/m3, dictated almost exclusively by indoor winter exposures. Under current trends, annual exposures increase 10% to 75 μg/m3 in 2024. This is in stark contrast to the moderate and max improvement scenarios, which lead to 2024 annual exposures that are 31%, and 68% lower, respectively. Under the Moderate scenario, 2024 per capita annual DALY and death burdens drop 26% and 22%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Under the Max scenario, 2024 per capita annual DALY and death burdens drop 71% and 66%, respectively, from 2014. SHS becomes a major contributor as emissions from other sectors decrease. Reductions are dominated by cardiovascular and lower respiratory diseases in children.

A Multimodel Assessment of the Influence of Regional Anthropogenic Emission Reductions on Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing and the Role of Intercontinental Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Hongbin; Chin, Mian; West, Jason; Atherton, Cynthia S.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Bergmann, Dan; Bey, Isabelle; Bian, Huisheng; Diehl, Thomas; Forberth, Gerd;

Inequalities in Maternal Health Care Utilization in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Multiyear and Multi-Country Analysis

PubMed Central

Alam, Nazmul; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Dumont, Alexandre; Fournier, Pierre

2015-01-01

To assess social inequalities in the use of antenatal care (ANC), facility based delivery (FBD), and modern contraception (MC) in two contrasting groups of countries in sub-Saharan Africa divided based on their progress towards maternal mortality reduction. Six countries were included in this study. Three countries (Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Uganda) had <350 MMR in 2010 with >4.5% average annual reduction rate while another three (Cameroon, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) had >550 MMR in 2010 with only <1.5% average annual reduction rate. All of these countries had at least three rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) before 2012. We measured rate ratios and differences, as well as relative and absolute concentration indices in order to examine within-country geographical and wealth-based inequalities in the utilization of ANC, FBD, and MC. In the countries which have made sufficient progress (i.e. Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Uganda), ANC use increased by 8.7, 9.3 and 5.7 percent, respectively, while the utilization of FBD increased by 4.7, 0.7 and 20.2 percent, respectively, over the last decade. By contrast, utilization of these services either plateaued or decreased in countries which did not make progress towards reducing maternal mortality, with the exception of Cameroon. Utilization of MC increased in all six countries but remained very low, with a high of 40.5% in Zimbabwe and low of 16.1% in Cameroon as of 2011. In general, relative measures of inequalities were found to have declined overtime in countries making progress towards reducing maternal mortality. In countries with insufficient progress towards maternal mortality reduction, these indicators remained stagnant or increased. Absolute measures for geographical and wealth-based inequalities remained high invariably in all six countries. The increasing trend in the utilization of maternal care services was found to concur with a steady decline in maternal mortality. Relative inequality declined overtime in countries which made progress towards reducing maternal mortality. PMID:25853423

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.102 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—4,120 (an average of 824 annually); (B) Killer whale...) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—14,315 (an average of 2,863 annually); (J) Pygmy killer whale (Feresa attenuata)—800 (an average of 160 annually); (K) False killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens)—6,445...

50 CFR 218.2 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—10 (an average of 2 annually); and (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually). (ii) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (B) Pygmy or dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an...

50 CFR 218.2 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—10 (an average of 2 annually); and (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually). (ii) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (B) Pygmy or dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an...

50 CFR 218.2 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—10 (an average of 2 annually); and (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually). (ii) Odontocetes: (A) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (B) Pygmy or dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sp.)—15 (an...

Trends in Clinical Diagnoses of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever among American Indians, 2001–2008

PubMed Central

Folkema, Arianne M.; Holman, Robert C.; McQuiston, Jennifer H.; Cheek, James E.

2012-01-01

American Indians are at greater risk for Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) than the general U.S. population. The epidemiology of RMSF among American Indians was examined by using Indian Health Service inpatient and outpatient records with an RMSF International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis. For 2001–2008, 958 American Indian patients with clinical diagnoses of RMSF were reported. The average annual RMSF incidence was 94.6 per 1,000,000 persons, with a significant increasing incidence trend from 24.2 in 2001 to 139.4 in 2008 (P = 0.006). Most (89%) RMSF hospital visits occurred in the Southern Plains and Southwest regions, where the average annual incidence rates were 277.2 and 49.4, respectively. Only the Southwest region had a significant increasing incidence trend (P = 0.005), likely linked to the emergence of brown dog ticks as an RMSF vector in eastern Arizona. It is important to continue monitoring RMSF infection to inform public health interventions that target RMSF reduction in high-risk populations. PMID:22232466

Trends in clinical diagnoses of Rocky Mountain spotted fever among American Indians, 2001-2008.

PubMed

Folkema, Arianne M; Holman, Robert C; McQuiston, Jennifer H; Cheek, James E

2012-01-01

American Indians are at greater risk for Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) than the general U.S. population. The epidemiology of RMSF among American Indians was examined by using Indian Health Service inpatient and outpatient records with an RMSF International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis. For 2001-2008, 958 American Indian patients with clinical diagnoses of RMSF were reported. The average annual RMSF incidence was 94.6 per 1,000,000 persons, with a significant increasing incidence trend from 24.2 in 2001 to 139.4 in 2008 (P = 0.006). Most (89%) RMSF hospital visits occurred in the Southern Plains and Southwest regions, where the average annual incidence rates were 277.2 and 49.4, respectively. Only the Southwest region had a significant increasing incidence trend (P = 0.005), likely linked to the emergence of brown dog ticks as an RMSF vector in eastern Arizona. It is important to continue monitoring RMSF infection to inform public health interventions that target RMSF reduction in high-risk populations.

How does increasing horizontal resolution in a global climate model improve the simulation of aerosol-cloud interactions?

DOE PAGES

Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Minghuai; ...

2015-06-23

We report the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 is run at horizontal grid spacing of 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25°, with the meteorology nudged toward the Year Of Tropical Convection analysis, and cloud simulators and the collocated A-Train satellite observations are used to explore the resolution dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions. The higher-resolution model produces results that agree better with observations, showing an increase of susceptibility of cloud droplet size, indicating a stronger first aerosol indirect forcing (AIF), and a decrease of susceptibility of precipitation probability, suggesting a weaker second AIF. The resolution sensitivities of AIF are attributed to those ofmore » droplet nucleation and precipitation parameterizations. Finally, the annual average AIF in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (where most anthropogenic emissions occur) in the 0.25° model is reduced by about 1 W m -2 (-30%) compared to the 2° model, leading to a 0.26 W m -2 reduction (-15%) in the global annual average AIF.« less

Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; He, Cenlin

2018-01-01

In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. However, questions remain about how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the detrended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.; Yan, Y.

2017-12-01

In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Yet questions remain on how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over the recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the de-trended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2008-01-01

Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize the probable levels of atrazine for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks. Sites with a high probability of exceeding a benchmark for human health or aquatic life can be prioritized for monitoring.

Estimation of average annual streamflows and power potentials for Alaska and Hawaii

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verdin, Kristine L.

2004-05-01

This paper describes the work done to develop average annual streamflow estimates and power potential for the states of Alaska and Hawaii. The Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used, along with climatic datasets, to develop flow and power estimates for every stream reach in the EDNA database. Estimates of average annual streamflows were derived using state-specific regression equations, which were functions of average annual precipitation, precipitation intensity, drainage area, and other elevation-derived parameters. Power potential was calculated through the use of the average annual streamflow and the hydraulic head of each reach, which is calculated from themore » EDNA digital elevation model. In all, estimates of streamflow and power potential were calculated for over 170,000 stream segments in the Alaskan and Hawaiian datasets.« less

Late-twentieth century changes in glacier extent in the Ak-shirak Range, Central Asia, determined from historical data and ASTER imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khromova, T. E.; Dyurgerov, M. B.; Barry, R. G.

2003-08-01

Global analysis of glacier regimes reveals widespread wastage since the late 1970s, with a marked acceleration in the late 1980s. We investigate changes in the heavily glacierized Ak-shirak Range, central Tien Shan plateau (43°N, 75°E) using air photo mapping surveys (1943 and 1977), an ASTER imagery (2001), and long term glaciological and meteorological observations. The wasting of the Ak-shirak glacier system features a decrease in average glacier size, and an increase in the area of outcrops. A small shrinkage during 1943-1977 was followed by a greater than 20% reduction during 1977-2001 in response to increases in summer and annual air temperature and decreases in annual precipitation.

The importance of temporal inequality in quantifying vegetated filter strip removal efficiencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gall, H. E.; Schultz, D.; Mejia, A.; Harman, C. J.; Raj, C.; Goslee, S.; Veith, T.; Patterson, P. H.

2017-12-01

Vegetated filter strips (VFSs) are best management practices (BMPs) commonly implemented adjacent to row-cropped fields to trap overland transport of sediment and other constituents often present in agricultural runoff. VFSs are generally reported to have high sediment removal efficiencies (i.e., 70 - 95%); however, these values are typically calculated as an average of removal efficiencies observed or simulated for individual events. We argue that due to: (i) positively correlated sediment concentration-discharge relationships; (ii) strong temporal inequality exhibited by sediment transport; and (iii) decreasing VFS performance with increasing flow rates, VFS removal efficiencies over annual time scales may be significantly lower than the per-event values or averages typically reported in the literature and used in decision-making models. By applying a stochastic approach to a two-component VFS model, we investigated the extent of the disparity between two calculation methods: averaging efficiencies from each event over the course of one year, versus reporting the total annual load reduction. We examined the effects of soil texture, concentration-discharge relationship, and VFS slope to reveal the potential errors that may be incurred by ignoring the effects of temporal inequality in quantifying VFS performance. Simulation results suggest that errors can be as low as < 2% and as high as > 20%, with the differences between the two methods of removal efficiency calculations greatest for: (i) soils with high percentage of fine particulates; (ii) VFSs with higher slopes; and (iii) strongly positive concentration-discharge relationships. These results can aid in annual-scale decision making for achieving downstream water quality goals.

Continental hydrology loading observed by VLBI measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eriksson, David; MacMillan, D. S.

2014-07-01

Variations in continental water storage lead to loading deformation of the crust with typical peak-to-peak variations at very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) sites of 3-15 mm in the vertical component and 1-2 mm in the horizontal component. The hydrology signal at VLBI sites has annual and semi-annual components and clear interannual variations. We have calculated the hydrology loading series using mass loading distributions derived from the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) hydrology model and alternatively from a global grid of equal-area gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) mascons. In the analysis of the two weekly VLBI 24-h R1 and R4 network sessions from 2003 to 2010 the baseline length repeatabilities are reduced in 79 % (80 %) of baselines when GLDAS (GRACE) loading corrections are applied. Site vertical coordinate repeatabilities are reduced in about 80 % of the sites when either GLDAS or GRACE loading is used. In the horizontal components, reduction occurs in 70-80 % of the sites. Estimates of the annual site vertical amplitudes were reduced for 16 out of 18 sites if either loading series was applied. We estimated loading admittance factors for each site and found that the average admittances were 1.01 0.05 for GRACE and 1.39 0.07 for GLDAS. The standard deviations of the GRACE admittances and GLDAS admittances were 0.31 and 0.68, respectively. For sites that have been observed in a set of sufficiently temporally dense daily sessions, the average correlation between VLBI vertical monthly averaged series and GLDAS or GRACE loading series was 0.47 and 0.43, respectively.

39 CFR 3010.21 - Calculation of annual limitation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... notice of rate adjustment and dividing the sum by 12 (Recent Average). Then, a second simple average CPI... Recent Average and dividing the sum by 12 (Base Average). Finally, the annual limitation is calculated by dividing the Recent Average by the Base Average and subtracting 1 from the quotient. The result is...

39 CFR 3010.21 - Calculation of annual limitation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... notice of rate adjustment and dividing the sum by 12 (Recent Average). Then, a second simple average CPI... Recent Average and dividing the sum by 12 (Base Average). Finally, the annual limitation is calculated by dividing the Recent Average by the Base Average and subtracting 1 from the quotient. The result is...

39 CFR 3010.21 - Calculation of annual limitation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... notice of rate adjustment and dividing the sum by 12 (Recent Average). Then, a second simple average CPI... Recent Average and dividing the sum by 12 (Base Average). Finally, the annual limitation is calculated by dividing the Recent Average by the Base Average and subtracting 1 from the quotient. The result is...

Bat reproduction declines when conditions mimic climate change projections for western North America.

PubMed

Adams, Rick A

2010-08-01

Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.

An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions.

PubMed

Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret

2017-05-15

We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements (www.swtelr.com). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A benefit-cost analysis of ten tree species in Modesto, California, U.S.A

Treesearch

E.G. McPherson

2003-01-01

Tree work records for ten species were analyzed to estimate average annual management costs by dbh class for six activity areas. Average annual benefits were calculated by dbh class for each species with computer modeling. Average annual net benefits per tree were greatest for London plane (Platanus acerifolia) ($178.57), hackberry (...

Annual reduction of solar UV exposure to the facial area of outdoor workers in Southeast Queensland by wearing a hat.

PubMed

Wong, J C; Airey, D K; Fleming, R A

1996-06-01

The total annual exposure to erythemally effective UVR was estimated for average work situations in a high exposure environment, viz, farm workers in Southeast Queensland (27.5 degrees S), and the effect of hat usage was examined. If no sun protection is used, the annual erythema exposures for this group of workers at three facial sites forehead, nose and cheek are 40, 57 and 34 J.cm-2 respectively. If a hat is worn throughout the year, the exposures are reduced to 6, 19 and 20 J.cm-2, respectively. The mean ratio of exposure without the hat to that with the hat (mean protection factor, MPF) was found to be 6 for the forehead, 3 for the nose and 2 for the cheek. The risk of non-melanoma skin cancers without the protection of the hat is estimated to increase by up to 100 times for basal cell carcinomas and 13 times for squamous cell carcinomas for a whole year of exposure.

Degradation of net primary production in a semiarid rangeland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Hasan; Prince, Stephen D.

2016-08-01

Anthropogenic land degradation affects many biogeophysical processes, including reductions of net primary production (NPP). Degradation occurs at scales from small fields to continental and global. While measurement and monitoring of NPP in small areas is routine in some studies, for scales larger than 1 km2, and certainly global, there is no regular monitoring and certainly no attempt to measure degradation. Quantitative and repeatable techniques to assess the extent of deleterious effects and monitor changes are needed to evaluate its effects on, for example, economic yields of primary products such as crops, lumber, and forage, and as a measure of land surface properties which are currently missing from dynamic global vegetation models, assessments of carbon sequestration, and land surface models of heat, water, and carbon exchanges. This study employed the local NPP scaling (LNS) approach to identify patterns of anthropogenic degradation of NPP in the Burdekin Dry Tropics (BDT) region of Queensland, Australia, from 2000 to 2013. The method starts with land classification based on the environmental factors presumed to control (NPP) to group pixels having similar potential NPP. Then, satellite remotely sensing data were used to compare actual NPP with its potential. The difference in units of mass of carbon and percentage loss were the measure of degradation. The entire BDT (7.45 × 106 km2) was investigated at a spatial resolution of 250 × 250 m. The average annual reduction in NPP due to anthropogenic land degradation in the entire BDT was -2.14 MgC m-2 yr-1, or 17 % of the non-degraded potential, and the total reduction was -214 MgC yr-1. Extreme average annual losses of 524.8 gC m-2 yr-1 were detected. Approximately 20 % of the BDT was classified as "degraded". Varying severities and rates of degradation were found among the river basins, of which the Belyando and Suttor were highest. Interannual, negative trends in reductions of NPP occurred in 7 % of the entire region, indicating ongoing degradation. There was evidence of areas that were in a permanently degraded condition. The findings provide strong evidence and quantitative data for reductions in NPP related to anthropogenic land degradation in the BDT.

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1 2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1,2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

50 CFR 218.112 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... average of 119274 annually). (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—1890 (an...) Short-beaked common dolphin—10 (an average of 2 annually); (vii) Northern elephant seal—10 (an average...

50 CFR 218.112 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... average of 119274 annually). (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—1890 (an...) Short-beaked common dolphin—10 (an average of 2 annually); (vii) Northern elephant seal—10 (an average...

50 CFR 218.112 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... average of 119274 annually). (ii) Pinnipeds: (A) Northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris)—1890 (an...) Short-beaked common dolphin—10 (an average of 2 annually); (vii) Northern elephant seal—10 (an average...

Field Test Evaluation of Conservation Retrofits of Low-Income, Single-Family Buildings in Wisconsin: Blower-Door-Directed Infiltration Reduction Procedure, Field Test Implementation and Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gettings, M.B.

A blower-door-directed infiltration retrofit procedure was field tested on 18 homes in south central Wisconsin. The procedure, developed by the Wisconsin Energy Conservation Corporation, includes recommended retrofit techniques as well as criteria for estimating the amount of cost-effective work to be performed on a house. A recommended expenditure level and target air leakage reduction, in air changes per hour at 50 Pascal (ACH50), are determined from the initial leakage rate measured. The procedure produced an average 16% reduction in air leakage rate. For the 7 houses recommended for retrofit, 89% of the targeted reductions were accomplished with 76% of themore » recommended expenditures. The average cost of retrofits per house was reduced by a factor of four compared with previous programs. The average payback period for recommended retrofits was 4.4 years, based on predicted energy savings computed from achieved air leakage reductions. Although exceptions occurred, the procedure's 8 ACH50 minimum initial leakage rate for advising retrofits to be performed appeared a good choice, based on cost-effective air leakage reduction. Houses with initial rates of 7 ACH50 or below consistently required substantially higher costs to achieve significant air leakage reductions. No statistically significant average annual energy savings was detected as a result of the infiltration retrofits. Average measured savings were -27 therm per year, indicating an increase in energy use, with a 90% confidence interval of 36 therm. Measured savings for individual houses varied widely in both positive and negative directions, indicating that factors not considered affected the results. Large individual confidence intervals indicate a need to increase the accuracy of such measurements as well as understand the factors which may cause such disparity. Recommendations for the procedure include more extensive training of retrofit crews, checks for minimum air exchange rates to insure air quality, and addition of the basic cost of determining the initial leakage rate to the recommended expenditure level. Recommendations for the field test of the procedure include increasing the number of houses in the sample, more timely examination of metered data to detect anomalies, and the monitoring of indoor air temperature. Though not appropriate in a field test of a procedure, further investigation into the effects of air leakage rate reductions on heating loads needs to be performed.« less

Earth radiation budget measurements from satellites and their interpretation for climate modeling and studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonderhaar, T. H.; Stephens, G. L.; Campbell, G. G.

1980-01-01

The annual and seasonal averaged Earth atmosphere radiation budgets derived from the most complete set of satellite observations available are presented. The budgets were derived from a composite of 48 monthly mean radiation budget maps. Annually and seasonally averaged radiation budgets are presented as global averages and zonal averages. The geographic distribution of the various radiation budget quantities is described. The annual cycle of the radiation budget was analyzed and the annual variability of net flux was shown to be largely dominated by the regular semi and annual cycles forced by external Earth-Sun geometry variations. Radiative transfer calculations were compared to the observed budget quantities and surface budgets were additionally computed with particular emphasis on discrepancies that exist between the present computations and previous surface budget estimates.

An analysis of the relationship between drought events and mangrove changes along the northern coasts of the Pe rsian Gulf and Oman Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mafi-Gholami, Davood; Mahmoudi, Beytollah; Zenner, Eric K.

2017-12-01

Relating the changes of mangrove forests to spatially explicit reductions in rainfall amounts and increases in drought occurrences is a prerequisite for improving the effectiveness and success of mangrove forest conservation programs. To this end, we investigated the relationship between drought events (quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index [SPI]) and changes in area and canopy cover of mangrove forests on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea using satellite imagery and long-term annual rainfall data over a period of 30 years (1986-2016). Statistical analyses revealed 1998 as the year marking the most significant change-point in the mean annual rainfall values in the catchments and mangroves, after which average SPI values consistently remained at lower levels. In the period of 1998-2016, decreases in the mean annual rainfall and increases in the severity of droughts differed spatially and were greater in the catchments and mangroves on the coasts of the Oman Sea than the coasts of the Persian Gulf. These spatially explicit results were closely mirrored by the mangrove response, with differential in reductions in mangrove areas and canopy cover that corresponded closely with the spatial distribution of drought intensities in the different parts of the coasts, with correlation coefficients ≥0.89 for the different coastal regions.

Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fiore, A M; Dentener, F J; Wild, O

2008-10-16

Understanding the surface O{sub 3} response over a 'receptor' region to emission changes over a foreign 'source' region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O{sub 3}) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O{sub 3} response over East Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA) and South Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O{sub 3} precursors, NO{sub x}, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surfacemore » O{sub 3} concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern U.S. and Japan. The sum of the O{sub 3} responses to NO{sub x}, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale 'import sensitivity' as the ratio of the O{sub 3} response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus 'domestic' (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the 3 foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the 3 foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O{sub 3} values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O{sub 3} levels are typically highest, and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-hour average O{sub 3} above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10-20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O{sub 3} of about 0.1 ppb yr{sup -1}, at the low end of the 0.1-0.5 ppb yr{sup -1} derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O{sub 3} response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NO{sub x}, NMVOC and CO emissions from the foreign source region.« less

Reduction in Chemotherapy Mixing Errors Using Six Sigma: Illinois CancerCare Experience.

PubMed

Heard, Bridgette; Miller, Laura; Kumar, Pankaj

2012-03-01

Chemotherapy mixing errors (CTMRs), although rare, have serious consequences. Illinois CancerCare is a large practice with multiple satellite offices. The goal of this study was to reduce the number of CTMRs using Six Sigma methods. A Six Sigma team consisting of five participants (registered nurses and pharmacy technicians [PTs]) was formed. The team had 10 hours of Six Sigma training in the DMAIC (ie, Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) process. Measurement of errors started from the time the CT order was verified by the PT to the time of CT administration by the nurse. Data collection included retrospective error tracking software, system audits, and staff surveys. Root causes of CTMRs included inadequate knowledge of CT mixing protocol, inconsistencies in checking methods, and frequent changes in staffing of clinics. Initial CTMRs (n = 33,259) constituted 0.050%, with 77% of these errors affecting patients. The action plan included checklists, education, and competency testing. The postimplementation error rate (n = 33,376, annualized) over a 3-month period was reduced to 0.019%, with only 15% of errors affecting patients. Initial Sigma was calculated at 4.2; this process resulted in the improvement of Sigma to 5.2, representing a 100-fold reduction. Financial analysis demonstrated a reduction in annualized loss of revenue (administration charges and drug wastage) from $11,537.95 (Medicare Average Sales Price) before the start of the project to $1,262.40. The Six Sigma process is a powerful technique in the reduction of CTMRs.

InMAP: a new model for air pollution interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessum, C. W.; Hill, J. D.; Marshall, J. D.

2015-10-01

Mechanistic air pollution models are essential tools in air quality management. Widespread use of such models is hindered, however, by the extensive expertise or computational resources needed to run most models. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations - the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages - attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model (WRF-Chem) within an Eulerian modeling framework, to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. InMAP uses a variable resolution grid that focuses on human exposures by employing higher spatial resolution in urban areas and lower spatial resolution in rural and remote locations and in the upper atmosphere; and by directly calculating steady-state, annual average concentrations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates WRF-Chem predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional error (MFE) and bias (MFB) < 10 % and population-weighted R2 ~ 0.99. Among individual PM2.5 species, the best predictive performance is for primary PM2.5 (MFE: 16 %; MFB: 13 %) and the worst predictive performance is for particulate nitrate (MFE: 119 %; MFB: 106 %). Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. Features planned for future model releases include a larger spatial domain, more temporal information, and the ability to predict ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online.

Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skansi, María de los Milagros; Brunet, Manola; Sigró, Javier; Aguilar, Enric; Arevalo Groening, Juan Andrés; Bentancur, Oscar J.; Castellón Geier, Yaruska Rosa; Correa Amaya, Ruth Leonor; Jácome, Homero; Malheiros Ramos, Andrea; Oria Rojas, Clara; Pasten, Alejandro Max; Sallons Mitro, Sukarni; Villaroel Jiménez, Claudia; Martínez, Rodney; Alexander, Lisa V.; Jones, P. D.

2013-01-01

Here we show and discuss the results of an assessment of changes in both area-averaged and station-based climate extreme indices over South America (SA) for the 1950-2010 and 1969-2009 periods using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series. A weeklong regional workshop in Guayaquil (Ecuador) provided the opportunity to extend the current picture of changes in climate extreme indices over SA. Our results provide evidence of warming and wetting across the whole SA since the mid-20th century onwards. Nighttime (minimum) temperature indices show the largest rates of warming (e.g. for tropical nights, cold and warm nights), while daytime (maximum) temperature indices also point to warming (e.g. for cold days, summer days, the annual lowest daytime temperature), but at lower rates than for minimums. Both tails of night-time temperatures have warmed by a similar magnitude, with cold days (the annual lowest nighttime and daytime temperatures) seeing reductions (increases). Trends are strong and moderate (moderate to weak) for regional-averaged (local) indices, most of them pointing to a less cold SA during the day and warmer night-time temperatures. Regionally-averaged precipitation indices show clear wetting and a signature of intensified heavy rain events over the eastern part of the continent. The annual amounts of rainfall are rising strongly over south-east SA (26.41 mm/decade) and Amazonia (16.09 mm/decade), but north-east Brazil and the western part of SA have experienced non-significant decreases. Very wet and extremely days, the annual maximum 5-day and 1-day precipitation show the largest upward trends, indicating an intensified rainfall signal for SA, particularly over Amazonia and south-east SA. Local trends for precipitation extreme indices are in general less coherent spatially, but with more general spatially coherent upward trends in extremely wet days over all SA.

Hydrology and water quality of the headwaters of the River Severn: Stream acidity recovery and interactions with plantation forestry under an improving pollution climate.

PubMed

Neal, Colin; Robinson, Mark; Reynolds, Brian; Neal, Margaret; Rowland, Philip; Grant, Simon; Norris, David; Williams, Bronwen; Sleep, Darren; Lawlor, Alan

2010-10-01

This paper presents new information on the hydrology and water quality of the eroding peatland headwaters of the River Severn in mid-Wales and links it to the impact of plantation conifer forestry further down the catchment. The Upper Hafren is dominated by low-growing peatland vegetation, with an average annual precipitation of around 2650 mm with around 250 mm evaporation. With low catchment permeability, stream response to rainfall is "flashy" with the rising limb to peak stormflow typically under an hour. The water quality is characteristically "dilute"; stormflow is acidic and enriched in aluminium and iron from the acid organic soil inputs. Baseflow is circum-neutral and calcium and bicarbonate bearing due to the inputs of groundwater enriched from weathering of the underlying rocks. Annual cycling is observed for the nutrients reflecting uptake and decomposition processes linked to the vegetation and for arsenic implying seasonal water-logging within the peat soils and underlying glacial drift. Over the decadal scale, sulphate and nitrate concentrations have declined while Gran alkalinity, dissolved organic carbon and iron have increased, indicating a reduction in stream acidification. Within the forested areas the water quality is slightly more concentrated and acidic, transgressing the boundary for acid neutralisation capacity as a threshold for biological damage. Annual sulphate and aluminium concentrations are double those observed in the Upper Hafren, reflecting the influence of forestry and the greater ability of trees to scavenge pollutant inputs from gaseous and mist/cloud-water sources compared to short vegetation. Acidification is decreasing more rapidly in the forest compared to the eroding peatland possibly due to the progressive harvesting of the mature forest reducing the scavenging of acidifying inputs. For the Lower Hafren, long-term average annual precipitation is slightly lower, with lower average altitude, at around 2520mm and evaporation is around double that of the Upper Hafren. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Breast Cancer Screening for Women at Average Risk: 2015 Guideline Update from the American Cancer Society

PubMed Central

Oeffinger, Kevin C.; Fontham, Elizabeth T. H.; Etzioni, Ruth; Herzig, Abbe; Michaelson, James S.; Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Walter, Louise C.; Church, Timothy R.; Flowers, Christopher R.; LaMonte, Samuel J.; Wolf, Andrew M. D.; DeSantis, Carol; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Andrews, Kimberly; Manassaram-Baptiste, Deana; Saslow, Debbie; Smith, Robert A.; Brawley, Otis W.; Wender, Richard

2016-01-01

Importance Breast cancer is a leading cause of premature mortality among U.S. women. Early detection has been shown to be associated with reduced breast cancer morbidity and mortality. This report updates the American Cancer Society (ACS) 2003 breast cancer screening guideline for women at average risk for breast cancer. Process The ACS commissioned a systematic evidence review of the breast cancer screening literature to inform the update, and a supplemental analysis of mammography registry data to address questions related to the screening interval. Formulation of recommendations was based on the quality of the evidence and judgment (incorporating values and preferences) about the balance of benefits and harms. Evidence Synthesis Mammography screening in women aged 40–69 years is associated with a reduction in breast cancer deaths across a range of study designs, and inferential evidence supports breast cancer screening in women who are age 70 years and older and are in good health. Estimates of the cumulative lifetime risk of false positive exams are greater if screening begins at younger ages due to the greater number of mammograms, as well as the higher recall rate in younger women. The quality of the evidence for overdiagnosis is not sufficient to estimate a lifetime risk with confidence. Analysis examining the screening interval demonstrates more favorable tumor characteristics when premenopausal women are screened annually vs. biennially. Evidence does not support routine clinical breast examination as a screening method for average risk women. Recommendations The ACS recommends that women with an average risk of breast cancer should undergo regular screening mammography starting at age 45 years (strong recommendation). Women who are ages 45 to 54 years should be screened annually (qualified recommendation). Women who are age 55 years and older should transition to biennial screening or have the opportunity to continue screening annually (qualified recommendation). Women should have the opportunity to begin annual screening between the ages of 40 and 44 years (qualified recommendation). Women should continue screening mammography as long as their overall health is good and they have a life expectancy of 10 years or more (qualified recommendation). The ACS does not recommend clinical breast examination for breast cancer screening among average-risk women at any age (qualified recommendation). PMID:26501536

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

Simulation of High-Latitude Hydrological Processes in the Torne-Kalix Basin: PILPS Phase 2(e). 3; Equivalent Model Representation and Sensitivity Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowling, Laura C.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Nijssen, Bart; Polcher, Jan; Koster, Randal D.; Lohmann, Dag; Houser, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Project for Intercomparison of Land Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(e) showed that in cold regions the annual runoff production in Land Surface Schemes (LSSs) is closely related to the maximum snow accumulation, which in turn is controlled in large part by winter sublimation. To help further explain the relationship between snow cover, turbulent exchanges and runoff production, a simple equivalent model-(SEM) was devised to reproduce the seasonal and annual fluxes simulated by 13 LSSs that participated in PILPS Phase 2(e). The design of the SEM relates the annual partitioning of precipitation and energy in the LSSs to three primary parameters: snow albedo, effective aerodynamic resistance and evaporation efficiency. Isolation of each of the parameters showed that the annual runoff production was most sensitive to the aerodynamic resistance. The SEM was somewhat successful in reproducing the observed LSS response to a decrease in shortwave radiation and changes in wind speed forcings. SEM parameters derived from the reduced shortwave forcings suggested that increased winter stability suppressed turbulent heat fluxes over snow. Because winter sensible heat fluxes were largely negative, reductions in winter shortwave radiation imply an increase in annual average sensible heat.

Potential for Water Savings by Defoliation of Saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) by Saltcedar Beetles (Diorhabda carinulata) in the Upper Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagler, P. L.; Nguyen, U.; Bateman, H. L.; Jarchow, C.; van Riper, C., III; Waugh, W.; Glenn, E.

2016-12-01

Northern saltcedar beetles (Diorhabda carinata) have spread widely in riparian zones on the Colorado Plateau since their initial release in 2002. One goal of the releases was to reduce water consumption by saltcedar in order to conserve water through reduction of evapotranspiration (ET). The beetle moved south on the Virgin River and reached Big Bend State Park in Nevada in 2014, an expansion rate of 60 km/year. This is important because the beetle's photoperiod requirement for diapause was expected to prevent them from moving south of 37°N latitude, where endangered southwest willow flycatcher habitat occurs. In addition to focusing on the rate of dispersal of the beetles, we used remote sensing estimates of ET at 13 sites on the Colorado, San Juan, Virgin and Dolores rivers and their tributaries to estimate riparian zone ET before and after beetle releases. We estimate that water savings from 2007-2015 was 31.5 million m3/yr (25,547 acre-ft/yr), amounting to 0.258 % of annual river flow from the Upper Colorado River Basin to the Lower Basin. Reasons for the relatively low potential water savings are: 1) baseline ET before beetle release was modest (0.472 m/yr); 2) reduction in ET was low (0.061 m/yr) because saltcedar stands tended to recover after defoliation; 3) riparian ET even in the absence of beetles was only 1.8 % of river flows, calculated as the before beetle average annual ET (472 mm/yr) times the total area of saltcedar (51,588 ha) divided by the combined total average annual flows (1964-2015) from the upper to lower catchment areas of the Colorado River Basin at the USGS gages (12,215 million m3/yr or 9.90 million acre-ft). Further research is suggested to concentrate on the ecological impacts (both positive and negative) of beetles on riparian zones and on identifying management options to maximize riparian health.

Year-to-year variations in annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations.

PubMed

Martz, D E; Rood, A S; George, J L; Pearson, M D; Langner, G H

1991-09-01

Annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations in 40 residences in and around Grand Junction, CO, have been measured repeatedly since 1984 using commercial alpha-track monitors (ATM) deployed for successive 12-mo time periods. Data obtained provide a quantitative measure of the year-to-year variations in the annual average Rn concentrations in these structures over this 6-y period. A mean coefficient of variation of 25% was observed for the year-to-year variability of the measurements at 25 sampling stations for which complete data were available. Individual coefficients of variation at the various stations ranged from a low of 7.7% to a high of 51%. The observed mean coefficient of variation includes contributions due to the variability in detector response as well as the true year-to-year variation in the annual average Rn concentrations. Factoring out the contributions from the measured variability in the response of the detectors used, the actual year-to-year variability of the annual average Rn concentrations was approximately 22%.

20 CFR 30.811 - How will OWCP calculate the duration and extent of a covered Part E employee's initial period of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... exceed 50 percent of his or her average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $15,000 as compensation... did not exceed 75 percent of such average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $10,000 as... EEOICPA Determinations of Average Annual Wage and Percentages of Loss § 30.811 How will OWCP calculate the...

20 CFR 30.811 - How will OWCP calculate the duration and extent of a covered Part E employee's initial period of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... exceed 50 percent of his or her average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $15,000 as compensation... did not exceed 75 percent of such average annual wage, OWCP will pay the employee $10,000 as... EEOICPA Determinations of Average Annual Wage and Percentages of Loss § 30.811 How will OWCP calculate the...

Recent trends and changes in freshwater discharge into Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, S. J.; Stieglitz, M.; McKenna, E.; Wood, E. F.

2004-05-01

Recent trends and changes in the observed river discharge into Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays (HJUBs) for the period 1964-1994 will be presented. Forty-two rivers with outlets into these bays contribute on average 700 cubic kilometers (= 0.02 sverdrups) of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean. River discharge attains a mean annual peak of 4.2 cubic kilometers per day on average each 17 June for the system as a whole, whereas the minimum of 0.6 cubic kilometers occurs on average each 3 April. The Nelson River supplies as much as 30% of the daily discharge for the entire system during winter, but diminishes in relative importance during spring and summer. Runoff rates per contributing area are highest (lowest) on the eastern (western) shores of Hudson and James Bays. Linear trend analyses reveal decreasing discharge in 38 out of the 42 rivers over the 31-year period. By 1994, the total annual freshwater discharge into the Arctic Ocean diminished by 110 cubic kilometers from its values in 1964, equivalent to a reduction of 0.0035 sverdrups. The annual peak discharge rates associated with snowmelt advanced by 16 days between 1964 and 1994 and has diminished slightly in intensity. There is a direct correlation between the time of this hydrological event and the latitude of a river's mouth; the timing of the peak discharge rates varies by 5 days for each degree of latitude. Continental snowmelt induces a seasonal pulse of freshwater from HJUBs that is tracked along its path into the Labrador Current and that coincides with ocean salinity anomalies on the inner Newfoundland Shelf. The talk will end with a discussion on the implications of a changing freshwater regime in HJUBs.

Assessing alternative industrial fortification portfolios: a Bangladesh case study.

PubMed

Fiedler, John L; Lividini, Keith; Guyondet, Christophe; Bermudez, Odilia I

2015-03-01

Approximately 1.2 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are lost annually in Bangladesh due to deficiencies of vitamin A, iron, and zinc. To provide evidence on the coverage, costs, and cost-effectiveness of alternative fortification interventions to inform nutrition policy-making in Bangladesh. Combining the 2005 Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey with a Bangladesh food composition table, apparent intakes of energy, vitamin A, iron, and zinc, and the coverage and apparent consumption levels of fortifiable vegetable oil and wheat flour are estimated. Assuming that fortification levels are those established in official regulations, the costs and cost-effectiveness of the two vehicles are assessed independently and as a two-vehicle portfolio. Vegetable oil has a coverage rate of 76% and is estimated to reduce the prevalence of inadequate vitamin A intake from 83% to 64%. The coverage of wheat flour is high (65%), but the small quantities consumed result in small reductions in the prevalence of inadequate intakes: 1.5 percentage points for iron, less than 1 for zinc, and 2 for vitamin A, while reducing average Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) gaps by 8%, 9%, and 15%, respectively. The most cost-effective 10-micronutrient wheat flour formulation costs US $1.91 million annually, saving 129,212 DALYs at a unit cost of US $14.75. Fortifying vegetable oil would cost US $1.27 million annually, saving 406,877 DALYs at an average cost of US $3.25. Sensitivity analyses explore various permutations of the wheat flour formulation. Divisional variations in coverage, cost, and impact are examined. Vegetable oil fortification is the most cost-effective of the three portfolios analyzed, but all three are very cost-effective options for Bangladesh.

Potential sensitivity of photosynthesis and isoprene emission to direct radiative effects of atmospheric aerosol pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strada, Susanna; Unger, Nadine

2016-04-01

A global Earth system model is applied to quantify the impacts of direct anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing on gross primary productivity (GPP) and isoprene emission. The impacts of different pollution aerosol sources (anthropogenic, biomass burning, and non-biomass burning) are investigated by performing sensitivity experiments. The model framework includes all known light and meteorological responses of photosynthesis, but uses fixed canopy structures and phenology. On a global scale, our results show that global land carbon fluxes (GPP and isoprene emission) are not sensitive to pollution aerosols, even under a global decline in surface solar radiation (direct + diffuse) by ˜ 9 %. At a regional scale, GPP and isoprene emission show a robust but opposite sensitivity to pollution aerosols in regions where forested canopies dominate. In eastern North America and Eurasia, anthropogenic pollution aerosols (mainly from non-biomass burning sources) enhance GPP by +5-8 % on an annual average. In the northwestern Amazon Basin and central Africa, biomass burning aerosols increase GPP by +2-5 % on an annual average, with a peak in the northwestern Amazon Basin during the dry-fire season (+5-8 %). The prevailing mechanism varies across regions: light scattering dominates in eastern North America, while a reduction in direct radiation dominates in Europe and China. Aerosol-induced GPP productivity increases in the Amazon and central Africa include an additional positive feedback from reduced canopy temperatures in response to increases in canopy conductance. In Eurasia and northeastern China, anthropogenic pollution aerosols drive a decrease in isoprene emission of -2 to -12 % on an annual average. Future research needs to incorporate the indirect effects of aerosols and possible feedbacks from dynamic carbon allocation and phenology.

Nitrate and phosphorus transport through subsurface drains under free and controlled drainage.

PubMed

Saadat, Samaneh; Bowling, Laura; Frankenberger, Jane; Kladivko, Eileen

2018-05-28

Controlled drainage (CD) is a structural conservation practice in which the drainage outlet is managed in order to reduce drain flow volume and nutrient loads to water bodies. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of CD to improve water quality for two different seasons and levels of outlet control, using ten years of data collected from an agricultural drained field in eastern Indiana with two sets of paired plots. The Rank Sum test was used to quantify the impact of CD on cumulative annual drain flow and nitrate-N and phosphorus loads. CD plots had a statistically significant (at 5% level) lower annual drain flow (eastern pair: 39%; western pair: 25%) and nitrate load (eastern pair: 43%; western pair: 26%) compared to free draining (FD) plots, while annual soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total phosphorus (TP) loads were not significantly different. An ANCOVA model was used to evaluate the impact of CD on daily drain flow, nitrate-N, SRP and TP concentrations and loads during the two different periods of control. The average percent reduction of daily drain flow was 68% in the eastern pair and 58% in the western pair during controlled drainage at the higher outlet level (winter) and 64% and 58% at the lower outlet level (summer) in the eastern and western pairs, respectively. Nitrate load reduction was similar to drain flow reduction, while the effect of CD on SRP and TP loads was not significant except for the increase in SRP in one pair. These results from a decade-long field monitoring and two different statistical methods enhance our knowledge about water quality impacts of CD system and support this management practice as a reliable system for reducing nitrate loss through subsurface drains, mainly caused by flow reduction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alternatives to the Moving Average

Treesearch

Paul C. van Deusen

2001-01-01

There are many possible estimators that could be used with annual inventory data. The 5-year moving average has been selected as a default estimator to provide initial results for states having available annual inventory data. User objectives for these estimates are discussed. The characteristics of a moving average are outlined. It is shown that moving average...

Marginal costs of water savings from cooling system retrofits: a case study for Texas power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loew, Aviva; Jaramillo, Paulina; Zhai, Haibo

2016-10-01

The water demands of power plant cooling systems may strain water supply and make power generation vulnerable to water scarcity. Cooling systems range in their rates of water use, capital investment, and annual costs. Using Texas as a case study, we examined the cost of retrofitting existing coal and natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plants with alternative cooling systems, either wet recirculating towers or air-cooled condensers for dry cooling. We applied a power plant assessment tool to model existing power plants in terms of their key plant attributes and site-specific meteorological conditions and then estimated operation characteristics of retrofitted plants and retrofit costs. We determined the anticipated annual reductions in water withdrawals and the cost-per-gallon of water saved by retrofits in both deterministic and probabilistic forms. The results demonstrate that replacing once-through cooling at coal-fired power plants with wet recirculating towers has the lowest cost per reduced water withdrawals, on average. The average marginal cost of water withdrawal savings for dry-cooling retrofits at coal-fired plants is approximately 0.68 cents per gallon, while the marginal recirculating retrofit cost is 0.008 cents per gallon. For NGCC plants, the average marginal costs of water withdrawal savings for dry-cooling and recirculating towers are 1.78 and 0.037 cents per gallon, respectively.

75 FR 41556 - Proposed Collection Renewal; Correction

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-16

... global education in the classroom. Estimated annual number of respondents: 300. Estimated average time to... the annual World Wise Schools Conference. The information is used as a record of attendance. 2. Title... global education in the classroom. Estimated annual number of responses: 300. Estimated average time to...

Estimating the Potential Health Impact and Costs of Implementing a Local Policy for Food Procurement to Reduce the Consumption of Sodium in the County of Los Angeles

PubMed Central

Kuo, Tony; Dunet, Diane; Schmidt, Steven M.; Simon, Paul A.; Fielding, Jonathan E.

2011-01-01

Objectives. We examined approaches to reduce sodium content of food served in settings operated or funded by the government of the County of Los Angeles, California. Methods. We adapted health impact assessment methods to mathematically simulate various levels of reduction in the sodium content of food served by the County of Los Angeles and to estimate the reductions’ potential impacts on mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) among food-service customers. We used data provided by county government food-service vendors to generate these simulations. Results. Our analysis predicted that if the postulated sodium-reduction strategies were implemented, adults would consume, on average, 233 fewer milligrams of sodium each day. This would correspond to an average decrease of 0.71 millimeters of mercury in SBP among adult hypertensives, 388 fewer cases of uncontrolled hypertension in the study population, and an annual decrease of $629 724 in direct health care costs. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that a food-procurement policy can contribute to positive health and economic effects at the local level. Our approach may serve as an example of sodium-reduction analysis for other jurisdictions to follow. PMID:21680933

Criterion 6, indicator 37 : average wage rates, annual average income, and annual injury rates in major forest employment categories

Treesearch

Kenneth Skog; Susan J. Alexander; John Bergstrom; Ken Cordell; Elizabeth Hill; James Howard; Rebecca Westby

2011-01-01

Average annual incomes for forest management and protection includes salaries for full-time permanent employees of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, which have increased from a median of $41,300 in 1992 to $48,200 in 2000, to $50,500 in 2006 (all in 2005$). Salary of full-time permanent employees in state forestry agencies in 1998, for entry level...

Staggering reductions in atmospheric nitrogen dioxide across Canada in response to legislated transportation emissions reductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Holly; Aherne, Julian

2016-12-01

It is well established that atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2), associated mainly with emissions from transportation and industry, can have adverse effects on both human and ecosystem health. Specifically, atmospheric NO2 plays a role in the formation of ozone, and in acidic and nutrient deposition. As such, international agreements and national legislation, such as the On-Road Vehicle and Engine Emission Regulations (SOR/2003-2), and the Federal Agenda on Cleaner Vehicles, Engines and Fuel have been put into place to regulate and limit oxidized nitrogen emissions. The objective of this study was to assess the response of ambient air concentrations of NO2 across Canada to emissions regulations. Current NO2 levels across Canada were examined at 137 monitoring sites, and long-term annual and quarterly trends were evaluated for 63 continuous monitoring stations that had at least 10 years of data during the period 1988-2013. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test (Z values) and Sen's slope estimate were used to determine monotonic trends; further changepoint analysis was used to determine periods with significant changes in NO2 air concentration and emissions time-series data. Current annual average NO2 levels in Canada range between 1.16 and 14.96 ppb, with the national average being 8.43 ppb. Provincially, average NO2 ranges between 3.77 and 9.25 ppb, with Ontario and British Columbia having the highest ambient levels of NO2. Long-term tend analysis indicated that the annual average NO2 air concentration decreased significantly at 87% of the stations (55 of 63), and decreased non-significantly at 10% (5 of 63) during the period 1998-2013. Concentrations increased (non-significantly) at only 3% (2 of 63) of the sites. Quarterly long-term trends showed similar results; significant decreases occurred at 84% (January-March), 88% (April-June), 83% (July-September), and 81% (October-December) of the sites. Declines in transportation emissions had the most influence on NO2 air concentrations, and changepoint analysis identified three significant changepoints for the air concentration of NO2 and transportation emissions data. The air concentration changepoints occurred immediately following changepoints in transportation emissions. The introduction of emissions limiting legislation, primarily from transportation sources, has lead to dramatic decreases of 32% in NO× emissions (42% from transportation sources [road, rail, air, marine]) and 47% in ambient NO2 concentrations across Canada. With respect to human health, legislated changes in transportation emissions have the greatest impact on ambient concentration in urban areas.

50 CFR 218.31 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...); (x) Melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) False killer... annually); (xiv) Pygmy killer whale (Ferresa attenuatta)—50 (an average of 10 annually); (xv) Rough-toothed... method of take and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter...

50 CFR 218.31 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...); (x) Melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra)—100 (an average of 20 annually); (xi) False killer... annually); (xiv) Pygmy killer whale (Ferresa attenuatta)—50 (an average of 10 annually); (xv) Rough-toothed... method of take and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter...

Voluntary GHG reduction of industrial sectors in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, Liang-Tung; Hu, Allen H

2012-08-01

The present paper describes the voluntary greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction agreements of six different industrial sectors in Taiwan, as well as the fluorinated gases (F-gas) reduction agreement of the semiconductor and Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) industries. The operating mechanisms, GHG reduction methods, capital investment, and investment effectiveness are also discussed. A total of 182 plants participated in the voluntary energy saving and GHG reduction in six industrial sectors (iron and steel, petrochemical, cement, paper, synthetic fiber, and textile printing and dyeing), with 5.35 Mt reduction from 2004 to 2008, or 33% higher than the target goal (4.02 Mt). The reduction accounts for 1.6% annual emission or 7.8% during the 5-yr span. The petrochemical industry accounts for 49% of the reduction, followed by the cement sector (21%) and the iron and steel industry (13%). The total investment amounted to approximately USD 716 million, in which, the majority of the investment went to the modification of the manufacturing process (89%). The benefit was valued at around USD 472 million with an average payback period of 1.5 yr. Moreover, related energy saving was achieved through different approaches, e.g., via electricity (iron and steel), steam and oil consumption (petrochemical) and coal usage (cement). The cost for unit CO(2) reduction varies per industry, with the steel and iron industrial sector having the highest cost (USD 346 t(-1) CO(2)) compared with the average cost of the six industrial sectors (USD 134 t(-1) CO(2)). For the semiconductor and Thin-Film Transistor LCD industries, F-gas emissions were reduced from approximately 4.1 to about 1.7 Mt CO(2)-eq, and from 2.2 to about 1.1 Mt CO(2)-eq, respectively. Incentive mechanisms for participation in GHG reduction are also further discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

7 CFR 760.1304 - Eligibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... in an eligible dairy operation must meet the average adjusted gross income eligibility requirements... benefit under this subpart if their annual average adjusted nonfarm income is over $500,000 as determined... Corporation A. For DELAP, the relevant period for the annual average adjusted nonfarm income is 2005 through...

7 CFR 760.1304 - Eligibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... in an eligible dairy operation must meet the average adjusted gross income eligibility requirements... benefit under this subpart if their annual average adjusted nonfarm income is over $500,000 as determined... Corporation A. For DELAP, the relevant period for the annual average adjusted nonfarm income is 2005 through...

Estimating evapotranspiration change due to forest treatment and fire at the basin scale in the Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roche, J. W.; Goulden, M.; Bales, R. C.

2017-12-01

Increased forest evapotranspiration (ET) coupled with snowpack decreases in a warming climate is likely to decrease runoff and increase forest drought stress. Field experiments and modeling suggest that forest thinning can reduce ET and thus increase potential runoff relative to untreated areas. We investigated the potential magnitude and duration of ET decreases resulting from forest-thinning treatments and fire using a robust empirical relation between Landsat-derived mean-annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and annual ET measured at flux towers. Among forest treatments, the minimum observed NDVI change required to produce a significant departure from control plots with NDVI of about 0.70 was -0.07 units, corresponding to a basal-area reduction of 3.1 m2 ha-1, and equivalent to an estimated ET reduction of -102 mm yr-1. Intensive thinning in highly productive forests that approached pre-fire-exclusion densities reduced basal area by 40-50%, generating estimated ET reductions of 152-216 mm yr-1 over five years following treatment. Between 1990 and 2008, fires in the American River basin generated more than twice the ET reduction per unit area than those in the Kings River basin, corresponding to greater water and energy limitations in the latter and greater fire severity in the former. A rough extrapolation of these results to the entire American River watershed, much of which would have burned naturally during this 19-year period, could result in ET reductions that approach 10% of full natural flows for drought years and 5% averaged over all years. This work demonstrates the potential utility to estimate forest ET change at the patch scale, which in turn may allow managers to estimate thinning benefits in areas lacking detailed hydrologic measurements.

Anomalously Strong and Rapid Drying of the Tropical Lower Stratosphere in 2016: Connections to Both the QBO and ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurst, D. F.; Davis, S. M.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Lambert, A.; Read, W. G.; Hall, E.; Jordan, A. F.

2017-12-01

Variations in tropical lower stratospheric water vapor are generally attributable to annual cycles in the Brewer-Dobson circulation and inter-annual phenomenon like the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extremes in tropical lower stratospheric water vapor (SWV) occur when these annual and inter-annual changes are constructively superimposed. The atypical progression of the 2015-16 QBO led to a strong and rapid cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere during 2016. From December 2015 to November 2016, monthly tropical mean (15°S-15°N) coldpoint temperature (CPT) anomalies decreased 3.2°C, from 1.1 to -2.1°C. Accordingly, monthly tropical mean SWV anomalies at 83 hPa dropped 1.9 ppm, from 0.85 to -1.05 ppm. This decline in SWV anomalies is equivalent to 40% of the long-term December average tropical abundance of SWV at 83 hPa. The 2016 decreases in tropical anomalies of both CPTs and SWV were not zonally uniform, with average Eastern Hemisphere reductions greater by 2°C and 0.9 ppm (50%), respectively. Since the QBO typically has a zonally uniform effect on tropical CPTs, this implies a zonally non-uniform mechanism like ENSO also influenced CPTs during 2016. The transition of ENSO from strong El Niño to weak La Niña conditions in 2016 would induce this zonal non-uniformity by shifting convective activity from the Eastern Pacific to the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Evidence indicates the simultaneous cooling of tropical CPTs by both the QBO and ENSO during 2016 rapidly dried the tropical lower stratosphere with anomalous strength, especially in the Eastern Hemisphere.

40 CFR Appendix to Subpart G of... - Applicant Questionnaire for Modification of Secondary Treatment Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... upon which your application for a modification is based: —BOD5 ___ mg/L —Suspended solids ___ mg/L —pH... dry weather —average wet weather —maximum —annual average BOD5 (mg/L) for the following plant flows: —minimum —average dry weather —average wet weather —maximum —annual average Suspended solids (mg/L) for the...

40 CFR Appendix to Subpart G of... - Applicant Questionnaire for Modification of Secondary Treatment Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... upon which your application for a modification is based: —BOD5 ___ mg/L —Suspended solids ___ mg/L —pH... dry weather —average wet weather —maximum —annual average BOD5 (mg/L) for the following plant flows: —minimum —average dry weather —average wet weather —maximum —annual average Suspended solids (mg/L) for the...

Energy-Saving Melting and Revert Reduction Technology (E-SMARRT): Final Summary Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Thornton C

2014-03-31

Energy-Saving Melting and Revert Reduction Technology (E-SMARRT) is a balanced portfolio of R&D tasks that address energy-saving opportunities in the metalcasting industry. E-SMARRT was created to: • Improve important capabilities of castings • Reduce carbon footprint of the foundry industry • Develop new job opportunities in manufacturing • Significantly reduce metalcasting process energy consumption and includes R&D in the areas of: • Improvements in Melting Efficiency • Innovative Casting Processes for Yield Improvement/Revert Reduction • Instrumentation and Control Improvement • Material properties for Casting or Tooling Design Improvement The energy savings and process improvements developed under E-SMARRT have been mademore » possible through the unique collaborative structure of the E-SMARRT partnership. The E-SMARRT team consisted of DOE’s Office of Industrial Technology, the three leading metalcasting technical associations in the U.S: the American Foundry Society; the North American Die Casting Association; and the Steel Founders’ Society of America; and SCRA Applied R&D, doing business as the Advanced Technology Institute (ATI), a recognized leader in distributed technology management. This team provided collaborative leadership to a complex industry composed of approximately 2,000 companies, 80% of which employ less than 100 people, and only 4% of which employ more than 250 people. Without collaboration, these new processes and technologies that enable energy efficiencies and environment-friendly improvements would have been slow to develop and had trouble obtaining a broad application. The E-SMARRT R&D tasks featured low-threshold energy efficiency improvements that are attractive to the domestic industry because they do not require major capital investment. The results of this portfolio of projects are significantly reducing metalcasting process energy consumption while improving the important capabilities of metalcastings. Through June 2014, the E-SMARRT program predicts an average annual estimated savings of 59 Trillion BTUs per year over a 10 year period through Advanced Melting Efficiencies and Innovative Casting Processes. Along with these energy savings, an estimated average annual estimate of CO2 reduction per year over a ten year period is 3.56 Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent (MM TCE).« less

Monitoring and Characterization of Miscellaneous Electrical Loads in a Large Retail Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gentile-Polese, L.; Frank, S.; Sheppy, M.

2014-02-01

Buildings account for 40% of primary energy consumption in the United States (residential 22%; commercial 18%). Most (70% residential and 79% commercial) is used as electricity. Thus, almost 30% of U.S. primary energy is used to provide electricity to buildings. Plug loads play an increasingly critical role in reducing energy use in new buildings (because of their increased efficiency requirements), and in existing buildings (as a significant energy savings opportunity). If all installed commercial building miscellaneous electrical loads (CMELs) were replaced with energy-efficient equipment, a potential annual energy saving of 175 TWh, or 35% of the 504 TWh annual energymore » use devoted to MELs, could be achieved. This energy saving is equivalent to the annual energy production of 14 average-sized nuclear power plants. To meet DOE's long-term goals of reducing commercial building energy use and carbon emissions, the energy efficiency community must better understand the components and drivers of CMEL energy use, and develop effective reduction strategies. These goals can be facilitated through improved data collection and monitoring methodologies, and evaluation of CMELs energy-saving techniques.« less

Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

2017-11-01

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

Substantial reductions in ambient PAHs pollution and lives saved as a co-benefit of effective long-term PM2.5 pollution controls.

PubMed

Kong, Shaofei; Yan, Qin; Zheng, Huang; Liu, Haibiao; Wang, Wei; Zheng, Shurui; Yang, Guowei; Zheng, Mingming; Wu, Jian; Qi, Shihua; Shen, Guofeng; Tang, Lili; Yin, Yan; Zhao, Tianliang; Yu, Huan; Liu, Dantong; Zhao, Delong; Zhang, Tao; Ruan, Jujun; Huang, Mingzhi

2018-05-01

Under great efforts in fighting against serious haze problem of China since 2013, decreasing of air pollutants especially for fine particles (PM 2.5 ) has been revealed for several key regions. This study tried to answer whether the reduction of PM 2.5 -bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was coincident with PM 2.5 because of long-term pollution control measures (PCM), and to assess source-oriented health risks associated with inhalation exposure to PAHs. Field measurements were carried out before and after the publishing of local air pollution protection plan for Nanjing, a mega-city in east China. Results indicated that the air quality was substantially improving, with a significant reduction in annual average PM 2.5 by 34%, and moreover, PM 2.5 -bound PAHs significantly reduced by 63% (p < 0.001). The remarkable reduction was mainly attributable to the change of emission sources, compared to the influence of atmospheric circulation patterns, surface meteorological conditions, and atmospheric chemical reaction. Four PAHs sources including coal combustion (CC), petroleum and oil burning (PO), wood burning (WB) and vehicle emission (VE) were identified. On an annual basis, contributions to ambient PM 2.5 -PAHs from WB, PO, CC and VE sources in the period before the action of control measures were 2.26, 2.20, 1.96 and 5.62 ng m -3 , respectively. They reduced to 1.09, 0.37, 1.31 and 1.77 ng m -3 for the four source types, with the reduction percentages as 51, 83, 33 and 68%, respectively. The estimated reduction in lifetime lung cancer risk was around 61%. The study that firstly assessed the health effects of PAHs reduction as a co-benefit raised by air PCM sustained for a long period is believed to be applicable and referential for other mega-cities around the world for assessing the benefits of PCM. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective control measures at high particulate pollution areas : analysis of data from the 2000 Phoenix Greenwood study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-02-01

Annual average PM10 concentrations at the Greenwood monitoring station in western Phoenix have : exceeded EPAs annual average air quality standard and are higher on average than values observed at the : West Phoenix monitor, which is located just ...

ERROR IN ANNUAL AVERAGE DUE TO USE OF LESS THAN EVERYDAY MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Long term averages of the concentration of PM mass and components are of interest for determining compliance with annual averages, for developing exposure surrogated for cross-sectional epidemiologic studies of the long-term of PM, and for determination of aerosol sources by chem...

40 CFR 464.34 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards and maximum day and maximum for monthly average concentration (mg/l) standards shall apply. Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.34 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards and maximum day and maximum for monthly average concentration (mg/l) standards shall apply. Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.34 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards and maximum day and maximum for monthly average concentration (mg/l) standards shall apply. Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

24 CFR 235.204 - Amount of annual MIP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... and Obligations-Homes for Lower Income Families § 235.204 Amount of annual MIP. (a) With respect to... an annual MIP shall be paid in an amount equal to one-half percent of the average outstanding... be paid in an amount equal to seven-tenths of one percent of the average outstanding principal...

24 CFR 235.204 - Amount of annual MIP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... and Obligations-Homes for Lower Income Families § 235.204 Amount of annual MIP. (a) With respect to... an annual MIP shall be paid in an amount equal to one-half percent of the average outstanding... be paid in an amount equal to seven-tenths of one percent of the average outstanding principal...

Energy Saving Melting and Revert Reduction Technology (E-SMARRT): Development of Surface Engineered Coating Systems for Aluminum Pressure Die Casting Dies: Towards a 'Smart' Die Coating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dr. John J. Moore; Dr. Jianliang Lin,

2012-07-31

The main objective of this research program was to design and develop an optimal coating system that extends die life by minimizing premature die failure. In high-pressure aluminum die-casting, the die, core pins and inserts must withstand severe processing conditions. Many of the dies and tools in the industry are being coated to improve wear-resistance and decrease down-time for maintenance. However, thermal fatigue in metal itself can still be a major problem, especially since it often leads to catastrophic failure (i.e. die breakage) as opposed to a wear-based failure (parts begin to go out of tolerance). Tooling costs remain themore » largest portion of production costs for many of these parts, so the ability prevent catastrophic failures would be transformative for the manufacturing industry.The technology offers energy savings through reduced energy use in the die casting process from several factors, including increased life of the tools and dies, reuse of the dies and die components, reduction/elimination of lubricants, and reduced machine down time, and reduction of Al solder sticking on the die. The use of the optimized die coating system will also reduce environmental wastes and scrap parts. Current (2012) annual energy saving estimates, based on initial dissemination to the casting industry in 2010 and market penetration of 80% by 2020, is 3.1 trillion BTU's/year. The average annual estimate of CO2 reduction per year through 2020 is 0.63 Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent (MM TCE).« less

Emissions Reduction Policies and Recent Trends in Southern California’s Ambient Air Quality

PubMed Central

Lurmann, Fred; Gilliland, Frank

2017-01-01

To assess accountability and effectiveness of air regulatory policies, we reviewed over 20 years of monitoring data, emissions estimates, and regulatory policies across several Southern California communities participating in a long-term study of children’s health. Between 1994 and 2011, air quality improved for NO2 and PM2.5 in virtually all the monitored communities. Average NO2 declined 28% to 53%, and PM2.5 decreased 13% to 54%. Year-to-year PM2.5 variability at lower-pollution sites was large compared to changes in long-term trends. PM10 and O3 decreases were largest in communities that were initially among the most polluted. Trends in annual average NO2, PM2.5, and PM10 concentrations in higher pollution communities were generally consistent with NOx, ROG, SOx, PM2.5, and PM10 emissions decreases. Reductions observed at one of the higher PM2.5 sites, Mira Loma, was generally within the range expected from reductions observed in ROG, NOx, SOx, and PM2.5 emissions. Despite a 38% increase in regional motor vehicle activity, vigorous economic growth, and a 30% population increase, total estimated emissions of NOx, ROG, SOx, PM2.5, and PM10 decreased by 54%, 65%, 40%, 21%, and 15%, respectively, during the 20-year time period. Emission control strategies in California have achieved dramatic reductions in ambient NO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10. However, additional reductions will still be needed to achieve current health-based clean air standards. PMID:25947128

Onchocerciasis control in Nigeria: will households be able to afford community-directed treatment with ivermectin?

PubMed

Onwujekwe, O; Shu, E; Onwuameze, O; Ndum, C; Okonkwo, P

2001-12-21

To determine the level of affordability of community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) to households living in two onchocerciasis endemic Nigerian communities namely Toro in the north and Nike in the south. The proportion of the cost of treating people with ivermectin will deplete in average monthly/projected annual household expenditure on food and health care, and on average monthly and projected annual household income were respectively calculated and used to determine the level of affordability of CDTI. Questionnaires administered to heads of households or their representatives were used to collect information on the household expenditures and income. The suggested unit CDTI cost of $0.20 was used. However, as a test of sensitivity, we also used the unit cost of $0.056 which some community based distributors are charging per treatment. Using $0.20 as the unit treatment cost, this will consume less than 0.05% of average annual household income in both communities. It will equally deplete 0.05% of combined annual household expenditures on food and health care in both communities. However, using $0.056 as the unit treatment cost, then 0.02% of average annual household expenditure on health care, 0.01% average annual expenditure on combined health care and food, and 0.01% of average annual household income will be depleted. The households living in both communities may be able to afford CDTI schemes. However, the final decision on levels of affordability lies with the households. They will decide whether they can afford to trade-off some household income for ivermectin distribution.

78 FR 19262 - Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average Total Assets That Defines Community Financial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-29

... FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY [No. 2013-N-04] Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has adjusted the cap on average total... Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and that has average total assets below a statutory cap.\\2\\ The Bank...

75 FR 9601 - Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average Total Assets That Defines Community Financial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-03

... FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY [No. 2010-N-01] Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has adjusted the cap on average total... Deposit Insurance Corporation and that has average total assets below a statutory cap. See 12 U.S.C. 1422...

26 CFR 1.411(d)-3 - Section 411(d)(6) protected benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... an annual benefit of 2% of career average pay times years of service commencing at normal retirement... an annual benefit of 1.3% of final pay times years of service, with final pay computed as the average... has 16 years of service, M's career average pay is $37,500, and the average of M's highest 3...

Outpatient Psychotherapy Improves Symptoms and Reduces Health Care Costs in Regularly and Prematurely Terminated Therapies

PubMed Central

Altmann, Uwe; Thielemann, Désirée; Zimmermann, Anna; Steffanowski, Andrés; Bruckmeier, Ellen; Pfaffinger, Irmgard; Fembacher, Andrea; Strauß, Bernhard

2018-01-01

Background: In view of a shortage of health care costs, monetary aspects of psychotherapy become increasingly relevant. The present study examined the pre-post reduction of impairment and direct health care costs depending on therapy termination (regularly terminated, dropout with an unproblematic reason, and dropout with a quality-relevant reason) and the association of symptom and cost reduction. Methods: In a naturalistic longitudinal study, we examined a disorder heterogeneous sample of N = 584 outpatients who were either treated with cognitive-behavioral, psychodynamic, or psychoanalytic therapy. Depression, anxiety, stress, and somatization were assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ). Annual amounts of inpatient costs, outpatient costs, medication costs, days of hospitalization, work disability days, utilization of psychotherapy, and utilization of pharmacotherapy 1 year before therapy and 1 year after therapy were provided by health care insurances. Symptom and cost reduction were analyzed using t-tests. Associations between symptom and cost reduction were examined using partial correlations and hierarchical linear models. Results: Patients who terminated therapy regularly showed the largest symptom reduction (d = 0.981–1.22). Patients who dropped out due to an unproblematic reason and patients who terminated early due to a quality-relevant reason showed significant but small effects of symptom reductions (e.g., depression: d = 0.429 vs. d = 0.366). For patients with a regular end and those dropping out due to a quality-relevant reason, we observed a significant reduction of work disability (diff in % of pre-test value = 56.3 vs. 42.9%) and hospitalization days (52.8 vs. 35.0%). Annual inpatient costs decreased in the group with a regular therapy end (31.5%). Furthermore, reduction of symptoms on the one side and reduction of work disability days and psychotherapy utilization on the other side were significant correlated (r = 0.091–0.135). Conclusion: Health care costs and symptoms were reduced in each of the three groups. The average symptom and cost reduction of patients with a quality-relevant dropout suggested that not each dropout might be seen as therapy failure. PMID:29867697

50 CFR 218.122 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—1,645 (an average of 329 annually); (B) Killer whale... the rule must be maintained. (4) Level B Harassment: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—6,975 (an average of 1,395 annually); (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—55185 (an average of...

50 CFR 218.122 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—1,645 (an average of 329 annually); (B) Killer whale... the rule must be maintained. (4) Level B Harassment: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—6,975 (an average of 1,395 annually); (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—55185 (an average of...

50 CFR 218.122 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...: (A) Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus)—1,645 (an average of 329 annually); (B) Killer whale... the rule must be maintained. (4) Level B Harassment: (i) Mysticetes: (A) Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—6,975 (an average of 1,395 annually); (B) Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)—55185 (an average of...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chan, G.Y.; Chui, V.W.; Wong, M.H.

Samples of roadside dust were collected from 30 sites in Hong Kong. The total concentrations of 10 metals in the samples were analyzed, and the correlation coefficients among the metal contents and the annual average daily traffic (AADT) in 1986 were determined. Pb was found to have a significant correlation (P less than 0.01) with AADT. No correlation was found between Al, Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, and Zn with respect to AADT. A general decrease in the level of Pb in roadside dust in the past few years has been observed since the reduction in the levelmore » of lead in petrol.« less

Trends and future challenges of water resources in the Tigris-Euphrates Rivers basin in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issa, I. E.; Al-Ansari, N. A.; Sherwany, G.; Knutsson, S.

2013-12-01

Iraq is one of the riparian countries within basins of Tigris-Euphrates Rivers in the Middle East region. The region is currently facing water shortage problems due to the increase of the demand and climate changes. In the present study, average monthly water flow measurements for 15 stream flow gaging stations within basins of these rivers in Iraq with population growth rate data in some of its part were used to evaluate the reality of the current situation and future challenges of water availability and demand in Iraq. The results showed that Iraq receives annually 70.29 km3 of water 45.4 and 25.52 km3 from River Tigris and Euphrates respectively. An amount of 18.04 km3 is supplied by its tributaries inside Iraq. The whole amount of water in the Euphrates Rivers comes outside the Iraqi borders. Annual decrease of the water inflow is 0.1335 km3 yr-1 for Tigris and 0.245 km3 yr-1 for Euphrates. This implies the annual percentage reduction of inflow rates for the two rivers is 0.294 and 0.960% respectively. Iraq consumes annually 88.89% (63.05 km3) of incoming water from the two rivers, where about 60.43 and 39.57% are from Rivers Tigris and Euphrates respectively. Water demand increases annually by 0.896 km3; of which 0.5271 and 0.475 km3 within Tigris and Euphrates basins respectively. The average water demand in 2020 will increase to 42.844 km3 yr-1 for Tigris basin and for Euphrates 29.225 km3 yr-1 (total 72.069 km3 yr-1), while water availability will decrease to 63.46 km3 yr-1. This means that the overall water shortage will be restricted to 8.61 km3.

The effect of climate variability on the carbon cycle of a Mediterranean forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manca, G.; Tirone, G.; Matteucci, G.; Tonon, G.; Cherubini, P.; Goded Ballarin, I.; Duerr, M.; Matteucci, M.; Seufert, G.

2009-04-01

Measurements of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide have operated since 1999 in the Mediterranean forest ecosystem (Pinus pinaster, L.) located in San Rossore (Pisa - Italy). Using night time values of NEE it is possible to estimate the Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) and the Gross Ecosystem Productivity (GEP), i.e. the photosynthetic uptake of CO2 without respiratory losses. The analysis of such fluxes shows that on annual base San Rossore is a CO2 sink. This ecosystem experiences a strong reduction of carbon uptake during summer when the rainfall is low and the air temperature is high. In such condition trees close stomata in order to avoid alteration of the leaf water status. This is the typical behaviour of the drought avoiding species. The reduction of the carbon uptake is due mainly to a reduction of photosynthesis whereas the ecosystem respiration undergoes a lower decrease. The summer 2003 is an extreme example of this pattern. The long time series collected in San Rossore allows to test the reaction of the forest to a wet summer (summer 2002), when the rainfall was 506 mm (300 mm more than the summer average 1999-2007), and the effect of high temperature in winter (January 2007). During summer 2002 both GEP and Reco were higher than the average but the GEP experienced the higher increase. The high temperature in January 2007 (3 °C higher than the average 1999-2007), was responsible for the huge increase of the ecosystem respiration not balanced by the little increase of GEP.

Marginal cost curves for water footprint reduction in irrigated agriculture: guiding a cost-effective reduction of crop water consumption to a permit or benchmark level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chukalla, Abebe D.; Krol, Maarten S.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

2017-07-01

Reducing the water footprint (WF) of the process of growing irrigated crops is an indispensable element in water management, particularly in water-scarce areas. To achieve this, information on marginal cost curves (MCCs) that rank management packages according to their cost-effectiveness to reduce the WF need to support the decision making. MCCs enable the estimation of the cost associated with a certain WF reduction target, e.g. towards a given WF permit (expressed in m3  ha-1 per season) or to a certain WF benchmark (expressed in m3  t-1 of crop). This paper aims to develop MCCs for WF reduction for a range of selected cases. AquaCrop, a soil-water-balance and crop-growth model, is used to estimate the effect of different management packages on evapotranspiration and crop yield and thus the WF of crop production. A management package is defined as a specific combination of management practices: irrigation technique (furrow, sprinkler, drip or subsurface drip); irrigation strategy (full or deficit irrigation); and mulching practice (no, organic or synthetic mulching). The annual average cost for each management package is estimated as the annualized capital cost plus the annual costs of maintenance and operations (i.e. costs of water, energy and labour). Different cases are considered, including three crops (maize, tomato and potato); four types of environment (humid in UK, sub-humid in Italy, semi-arid in Spain and arid in Israel); three hydrologic years (wet, normal and dry years) and three soil types (loam, silty clay loam and sandy loam). For each crop, alternative WF reduction pathways were developed, after which the most cost-effective pathway was selected to develop the MCC for WF reduction. When aiming at WF reduction one can best improve the irrigation strategy first, next the mulching practice and finally the irrigation technique. Moving from a full to deficit irrigation strategy is found to be a no-regret measure: it reduces the WF by reducing water consumption at negligible yield reduction while reducing the cost for irrigation water and the associated costs for energy and labour. Next, moving from no to organic mulching has a high cost-effectiveness, reducing the WF significantly at low cost. Finally, changing from sprinkler or furrow to drip or subsurface drip irrigation reduces the WF, but at a significant cost.

Cost of illness among patients with diabetic foot ulcer in Turkey

PubMed Central

Oksuz, Ergun; Malhan, Simten; Sonmez, Bilge; Numanoglu Tekin, Rukiye

2016-01-01

AIM To evaluate the annual cost of patients with Wagner grade 3-4-5 diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) from the public payer’s perspective in Turkey. METHODS This study was conducted focused on a time frame of one year from the public payer’s perspective. Cost-of-illness (COI) methodology, which was developed by the World Health Organization, was used in the generation of cost data. By following a clinical path with the COI method, the main total expenses were reached by multiplying the number of uses of each expense item, the percentage of cases that used them and unit costs. Clinical guidelines and real data specific to Turkey were used in the calculation of the direct costs. Monte Carlo Simulation was used in the study as a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS The following were calculated in DFU treatment from the public payer’s perspective: The annual average per patient outpatient costs $579.5 (4.1%), imaging test costs $283.2 (2.0%), laboratory test costs $284.8 (2.0%), annual average per patient cost of intervention, rehabilitation and trainings $2291.7 (16.0%), annual average per patient cost of drugs used $2545.8 (17.8%) and annual average per patient cost of medical materials used in DFU treatment $735.0 (5.1%). The average annual per patient cost for hospital admission is $7357.4 (51.5%). The average per patient complication cost for DFU is $210.3 (1.5%). The average annual per patient cost of DFU treatment in Turkey is $14287.70. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, the standard deviation of the analysis was $5706.60 (n = 5000, mean = $14146.8, 95%CI: $13988.6-$14304.9). CONCLUSION The health expenses per person are $-PPP 1045 in 2014 in Turkey and the average annual per patient cost for DFU is 14-fold of said amount. The total health expense in 2014 in Turkey is $-PPP 80.3 billion and the total DFU cost has a 3% share in the total annual health expenses for Turkey. Hospital costs are the highest component in DFU disease costs. In order to prevent DFU, training of the patients at risk and raising consciousness in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) will provide benefits in terms of economy. Appropriate and efficient treatment of DM is a health intervention that can prevent complications. PMID:27795820

Effect of reforestation on streamflow in central New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, William Joseph; Ayer, Gordon Roundy

1961-01-01

Hydrologic data have been collected since 1932 in central New York State to determine the effect of reforestation on streamflow. Data are available for three small partly reforested areas and for one nonreforested control area. From 35 to 58 percent of the 3 areas were reforested, mostly with species of pine and spruce. The trees were allowed to grow without thinning or cutting, and by 1958 these reforested areas had developed into dense coniferous woodlots. Intensive statistical analyses of the data from the four study areas were made in 1958. Analyses were made for three hydrologic periods: the dormant season represented by the 6-month period ending April 30, the growing season represented by the 6-month period ending October 31, and the year represented by the 12-month period ending April 30. Analyses of the hydrologic data using multiple correlation with time as a variable and analyses of covariance between early and late periods of record indicated that several significant changes had occurred in the streamflow from the partly reforested study areas. Based on correlation with precipitation, total runoff for the dormant season from the 3 study areas was reduced by annual rates of 0.17 to 0.29 inches per year. Based on correlations with streamflow from a control area, total runoff from the partly reforested Shackham Brook area was reduced by average rates of 0.14 inches per growing season, 0.23 inches per dormant season, and 0.36 inches per hydrologic year. Peak discharges on Shackham Brook during the dormant season were reduced by 1958 by an average of 41 percent for the season, with reductions ranging from an average of 66 percent for November to an average of 16 percent for April. No significant changes were found in the peak discharges for the growing season, rates of base-flow recession, volumes of direct runoff, or annual low flows of streams in the three partly reforested areas. The significant reductions in total runoff are attributed to increases in interception and transpiration in the reforested areas. The reductions in peak discharges during the dormant period are attributed largely to increased interception and sublimation of snowfall, and a gradual desynchronization of snowmelt runoff from the wooded and open areas of partly reforested watersheds. The changes in streamflow occurred gradually over the years; it could not be determined from the data whether changes in streamflow were still occurring in 1958, or whether they had reached a maximum.

76 FR 3142 - Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average Total Assets That Defines Community Financial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-19

... FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY [No. 2011-N-01] Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has adjusted the cap on average total... average total assets below a statutory cap. See 12 U.S.C. 1422(10)(A); 12 CFR 1263.1. The Bank Act was...

Robust Projected Weakening of Winter Monsoon Winds Over the Arabian Sea Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parvathi, V.; Suresh, I.; Lengaigne, M.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.

2017-10-01

The response of the Indian winter monsoon to climate change has received considerably less attention than that of the summer monsoon. We show here that all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models display a consistent reduction (of 6.5% for Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 and 3.5% for 4.5, on an average) of the winter monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea at the end of 21st century. This projected reduction weakens but remains robust when corrected for overestimated winter Arabian Sea winds in CMIP5. This weakening is driven by a reduction in the interhemispheric sea level pressure gradient resulting from enhanced warming of the dry Arabian Peninsula relative to the southern Indian Ocean. The wind weakening reduces winter oceanic heat losses to the atmosphere and deepening of convective mixed layer in the northern Arabian Sea and hence can potentially inhibit the seasonal chlorophyll bloom that contributes substantially to the Arabian Sea annual productivity.

Nitrogen Dioxide Trend over the United States: the View from the Ground, the View from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.

2014-01-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are decreasing over the US due to environmental policies and technological change. We use observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite instrument and surface NO2 in-situ measurements from the air quality system (AQS) to quantify the trends, and to establish the relationship between the trends in tropospheric column and surface concentration. Both observations show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 35 percent according to OMI and 38 percent according to AQS. The annual reduction rates are largest in 2005-2009: -6.2 percent per year and -7 percent per year observed by OMI and AQS, respectively. We examine various factors affecting the estimated trend in OMI NO2 columns and in-situ NO2 observations. An improved understanding of trend offers valuable insights about effectiveness of emission reduction regulations on state and federal level.

Globally Averaged Atmospheric CFC-11 Concentrations: Monthly and Annual Data for the Period 1975-1992 (DB1010)

DOE Data Explorer

Khalil, M. A.K. [Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology Portland, Oregon (USA); Rasmussen, R. A. [Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology Portland, Oregon

1996-01-01

This data set presents globally averaged atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbon 11, known also as CFC-11 or F-11 (chemical name: trichlorofluoromethane; formula: CCl3F). The monthly global average data are derived from flask air samples collected at eight sites in six locations over the period August 1980-July 1992. The sites are Barrow (Alaska), Cape Meares (Oregon), Cape Kumukahi and Mauna Loa (Hawaii), Cape Matatula (American Samoa), Cape Grim (Tasmania), Palmer Station, and the South Pole (Antarctica). At each collection site, monthly averages were obtained from three flask samples collected every week. In addition to the monthly global averages available for 1980-992, this data set also contains annual global average data for 1975-1985. These annual global averages were derived from January measurements at the South Pole and in the Pacific Northwest of the United States (specifically, Washington state and the Oregon coast).

Systematic review of the relationship of Helicobacter pylori infection with geographical latitude, average annual temperature and average daily sunshine.

PubMed

Lu, Chao; Yu, Ye; Li, Lan; Yu, Chaohui; Xu, Ping

2018-04-17

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is a worldwide threat to human health with high prevalence. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between latitude, average annual temperature, average daily sunshine time and H. pylori infection. The PubMed, ClinicalTrials.gov , EBSCO and Web of Science databases were searched to identify studies reporting H. pylori infection. Latitude 30° was the cut-off level for low and mid-latitude areas. We obtained information for latitude, average annual temperature, average daily sunshine, and Human Development Index (HDI) from reports of studies of the relationships with H. pylori infection. Of the 51 studies included, there was significant difference in H. pylori infection between the low- and mid-latitude areas (P = 0.05). There was no significant difference in the prevalence of H. pylori infection in each 15°-latitude zone analyzed (P = 0.061). Subgroup analysis revealed the highest and lowest H. pylori infection rates in the developing regions at > 30° latitude subgroup and the developed regions at < 30° latitude subgroup, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that average annual temperature, average daily sunshine time and HDI were significantly correlated with H. pylori infection (P = 0.009, P < 0.001, P < 0.001), while there was no correlation between H. pylori infection and latitude. Our analysis showed that higher average annual temperature was associated with lower H. pylori infection rates, while average daily sunshine time correlated positively with H. pylori infection. HDI was also found to be a significant factor, with higher HDI associated with lower infection rates. These findings provide evidence that can be used to devise strategies for the prevention and control of H. pylori.

Estimating 1970-99 average annual groundwater recharge in Wisconsin using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Kennedy, James L.

2011-01-01

Average annual recharge in Wisconsin for the period 1970-99 was estimated using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and partial-record sites. Partial-record sites have discharge measurements collected during low-flow conditions. The average annual base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area is a good approximation of the recharge rate; therefore, once average annual base flow is determined recharge can be calculated. Estimates of recharge for nearly 72 percent of the surface area of the State are provided. The results illustrate substantial spatial variability of recharge across the State, ranging from less than 1 inch to more than 12 inches per year. The average basin size for partial-record sites (50 square miles) was less than the average basin size for the gaging stations (305 square miles). Including results for smaller basins reveals a spatial variability that otherwise would be smoothed out using only estimates for larger basins. An error analysis indicates that the techniques used provide base flow estimates with standard errors ranging from 5.4 to 14 percent.

Widespread rapid reductions in body size of adult salamanders in response to climate change.

PubMed

Caruso, Nicholas M; Sears, Michael W; Adams, Dean C; Lips, Karen R

2014-06-01

Reduction in body size is a major response to climate change, yet evidence in globally imperiled amphibians is lacking. Shifts in average population body size could indicate either plasticity in the growth response to changing climates through changes in allocation and energetics, or through selection for decreased size where energy is limiting. We compared historic and contemporary size measurements in 15 Plethodon species from 102 populations (9450 individuals) and found that six species exhibited significant reductions in body size over 55 years. Biophysical models, accounting for actual changes in moisture and air temperature over that period, showed a 7.1-7.9% increase in metabolic expenditure at three latitudes but showed no change in annual duration of activity. Reduced size was greatest at southern latitudes in regions experiencing the greatest drying and warming. Our results are consistent with a plastic response of body size to climate change through reductions in body size as mediated through increased metabolism. These rapid reductions in body size over the past few decades have significance for the susceptibility of amphibians to environmental change, and relevance for whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change in the future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of consumer pressure and abiotic stress on positive plant interactions are mediated by extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Filazzola, Alessandro; Liczner, Amanda Rae; Westphal, Michael; Lortie, Christopher J

2018-01-01

Environmental extremes resulting from a changing climate can have profound implications for plant interactions in desert communities. Positive interactions can buffer plant communities from abiotic stress and consumer pressure caused by climatic extremes, but limited research has explored this empirically. We tested the hypothesis that the mechanism of shrub facilitation on an annual plant community can change with precipitation extremes in deserts. During years of extreme drought and above-average rainfall in a desert, we measured plant interactions and biomass while manipulating a soil moisture gradient and reducing consumer pressure. Shrubs facilitated the annual plant community at all levels of soil moisture through reductions in microclimatic stress in both years and herbivore protection in the wet year only. Shrub facilitation and the high rainfall year contributed to the dominance of a competitive annual species in the plant community. Precipitation patterns in deserts determine the magnitude and type of facilitation mechanisms. Moreover, shrub facilitation mediates the interspecific competition within the associated annual community between years with different rainfall amounts. Examining multiple drivers during extreme climate events is a challenging area of research, but it is a necessary consideration given forecasts predicting that these events will increase in frequency and magnitude. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Sediment Flux of Particulate Organic Phosphorus in the Open Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkhomenko, A. V.; Kukushkin, A. S.

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of the monthly average (weighted average) concentrations of particulate organic phosphorus (PPOM) in the photosynthetic layer, oxycline, redox zone, and H2S zone in the open Black Sea is estimated based on long-term observation data. The suspension sedimentation rates from the studied layers are assessed using model calculations and published data. The annual variation of PPOM sediment fluxes from the photosynthetic layer, oxycline, redox zone, and upper H2S zone to the anaerobic zone of the sea and the correspondingly annual average values are estimated for the first time. A regular decrease in the PPOM annual average flux with depth in the upper active layer is demonstrated. A correlation between the annual average values of PPOM sediment flux from the photosynthetic layer and ascending phosphate flux to this layer is shown, which suggests their balance in the open sea. The results are discussed in terms of the phosphorus biogeochemical cycle and the concept of new and regenerative primary production in the open Black Sea.

An estimation of Canadian population exposure to cosmic rays.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Timmins, Rachel; Verdecchia, Kyle; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2009-08-01

The worldwide average exposure to cosmic rays contributes to about 16% of the annual effective dose from natural radiation sources. At ground level, doses from cosmic ray exposure depend strongly on altitude, and weakly on geographical location and solar activity. With the analytical model PARMA developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, annual effective doses due to cosmic ray exposure at ground level were calculated for more than 1,500 communities across Canada which cover more than 85% of the Canadian population. The annual effective doses from cosmic ray exposure in the year 2000 during solar maximum ranged from 0.27 to 0.72 mSv with the population-weighted national average of 0.30 mSv. For the year 2006 during solar minimum, the doses varied between 0.30 and 0.84 mSv, and the population-weighted national average was 0.33 mSv. Averaged over solar activity, the Canadian population-weighted average annual effective dose due to cosmic ray exposure at ground level is estimated to be 0.31 mSv.

Preventive osteopathic manipulative treatment and stress fracture incidence among collegiate cross-country athletes.

PubMed

Brumm, Lynn F; Janiski, Carrie; Balawender, Jenifer L; Feinstein, Adam

2013-12-01

Stress fractures are common among athletes, particularly distance runners, with many theories regarding the etiologic process of stress fractures and various studies identifying risk factors or suggesting preventive techniques. To our knowledge, no previous studies have discussed the possible causative effects of somatic dysfunction or the preventive capabilities of osteopathic manipulative treatment (OMT). To apply a preventive OMT protocol for cross-country athletes to reduce the incidence of stress fractures. Cohort study. Examinations of cross-country athletes at an NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) Division I university were performed by supervising physician-examiners and first- and second-year osteopathic medical students during several consecutive academic years. Athletes re-enrolled in the study each year they continued to be eligible. The intervention included osteopathic structural examination and OMT that focused on somatic dysfunction identified in the pelvis, sacrum, and lower extremities. More than 1800 participant examinations were performed on 124 male and female participants by 3 supervising physician-examiners and 141 osteopathic medical students over the course of 5 consecutive academic years (2004-2005 to 2008-2009). Data from these academic years were compared with data from the previous 8 academic years (1996-1997 to 2003-2004). An average of 20 new participants enrolled yearly. The number of annual stress fractures per team ranged from 0 to 6 for male participants and 1 to 6 for female participants. The cumulative annual incidence of stress fractures for male participants demonstrated a statistically significant decrease from 13.9% (20 of 144) before intervention to 1.0% (1 of 105) after intervention, resulting in a 98.7% relative reduction in stress-fracture diagnosis (P=.019). The cumulative annual incidence for female participants showed a minimal decrease from 12.9% (23 of 178) before intervention to 12.0% (17 of 142) after intervention, an 8.5% relative reduction in stress-fracture diagnosis (P=.671). The cumulative annual incidence of all participants decreased from 13.4% (43 of 322) before intervention to 7.3% (18 of 247) after intervention, a 45% relative reduction in stress-fracture diagnosis (P=.156). There was a statistically significant decrease in the cumulative annual incidence of stress fractures in male, but not female, cross-country athletes after receiving OMT.

Annual and Semi-Annual Temperature Oscillations in the Upper Mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niciejewski, R. J.; Killeen, T. L.

1995-01-01

Fourier transform spectrometer observations of the mesosphere have been performed at the University of Michigan (latitude: 42.5 N) on a long term basis. A database of near infrared Meinel hydroxyl spectra has been accumulated from which rotational temperatures have been determined. Harmonic analysis of one-day averaged temperatures for the period 1992.0 to 1994.5 has shown a distinct annual and semi-annual variation. Subsequent fitting of a five term periodic function characterizing the annual and semi-annual temperature oscillations to the daily averaged temperatures was performed. The resultant mean temperature and the amplitudes and phases of the annual and semi-annual variations are shown to coincide with an emission height slightly above 85 km which is consistent with the mean rocket derived altitude for peak nocturnal hydroxyl emission.

Colorectal cancer screening for average-risk adults: 2018 guideline update from the American Cancer Society.

PubMed

Wolf, Andrew M D; Fontham, Elizabeth T H; Church, Timothy R; Flowers, Christopher R; Guerra, Carmen E; LaMonte, Samuel J; Etzioni, Ruth; McKenna, Matthew T; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Walter, Louise C; Andrews, Kimberly S; Brawley, Otis W; Brooks, Durado; Fedewa, Stacey A; Manassaram-Baptiste, Deana; Siegel, Rebecca L; Wender, Richard C; Smith, Robert A

2018-05-30

In the United States, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common cancer diagnosed among adults and the second leading cause of death from cancer. For this guideline update, the American Cancer Society (ACS) used an existing systematic evidence review of the CRC screening literature and microsimulation modeling analyses, including a new evaluation of the age to begin screening by race and sex and additional modeling that incorporates changes in US CRC incidence. Screening with any one of multiple options is associated with a significant reduction in CRC incidence through the detection and removal of adenomatous polyps and other precancerous lesions and with a reduction in mortality through incidence reduction and early detection of CRC. Results from modeling analyses identified efficient and model-recommendable strategies that started screening at age 45 years. The ACS Guideline Development Group applied the Grades of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria in developing and rating the recommendations. The ACS recommends that adults aged 45 years and older with an average risk of CRC undergo regular screening with either a high-sensitivity stool-based test or a structural (visual) examination, depending on patient preference and test availability. As a part of the screening process, all positive results on noncolonoscopy screening tests should be followed up with timely colonoscopy. The recommendation to begin screening at age 45 years is a qualified recommendation. The recommendation for regular screening in adults aged 50 years and older is a strong recommendation. The ACS recommends (qualified recommendations) that: 1) average-risk adults in good health with a life expectancy of more than 10 years continue CRC screening through the age of 75 years; 2) clinicians individualize CRC screening decisions for individuals aged 76 through 85 years based on patient preferences, life expectancy, health status, and prior screening history; and 3) clinicians discourage individuals older than 85 years from continuing CRC screening. The options for CRC screening are: fecal immunochemical test annually; high-sensitivity, guaiac-based fecal occult blood test annually; multitarget stool DNA test every 3 years; colonoscopy every 10 years; computed tomography colonography every 5 years; and flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;000:000-000. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Evaluation on the cost-effective threshold of osteoporosis treatment on elderly women in China using discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Ni, W; Jiang, Y

2017-02-01

This study used a simulation model to determine the cost-effective threshold of fracture risk to treat osteoporosis among elderly Chinese women. Osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among average-risk women who are at least 75 years old and above-average-risk women who are younger than 75 years old. Aging of the Chinese population is imposing increasing economic burden of osteoporosis. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment among the senior Chinese women population. A discrete event simulation model using age-specific probabilities of hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture; costs (2015 US dollars); and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. The willingness to pay (WTP) for a QALY in China was compared with the calculated ICER to decide the cost-effectiveness. To determine the absolute 10-year hip fracture probability at which the osteoporosis treatment became cost-effective, average age-specific probabilities for all fractures were multiplied by a relative risk (RR) that was systematically varied from 0 to 10 until the WTP threshold was observed for treatment relative to no intervention. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to evaluate the impacts from WTP and annual treatment costs. In baseline analysis, simulated ICERs were higher than the WTP threshold among Chinese women younger than 75, but much lower than the WTP among the older population. Sensitivity analyses indicated that cost-effectiveness could vary due to a higher WTP threshold or a lower annual treatment cost. A 30 % increase in WTP or a 30 % reduction in annual treatment costs will make osteoporosis treatment cost-effective for Chinese women population from 55 to 85. The current study provides evidence that osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among a subpopulation of Chinese senior women. The results also indicate that the cost-effectiveness of using osteoporosis treatment is sensitive to the WTP threshold and annual treatment costs.

Characteristics and Trends of River Discharge into Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays, 1964-2000.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Stieglitz, Marc; McKenna, Edward C.; Wood, Eric F.

2005-07-01

The characteristics and trends of observed river discharge into the Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays (HJUBs) for the period 1964-2000 are investigated. Forty-two rivers with outlets into these bays contribute on average 714 km3 yr-1 [= 0.023 Sv (1 Sv 106 m3s-1)] of freshwater to high-latitude oceans. For the system as a whole, discharge attains an annual peak of 4.2 km3 day-1 on average in mid-June, whereas the minimum of 0.68 km3 day-1 occurs on average during the last week of March. The Nelson River contributes as much as 34% of the daily discharge for the entire system during winter but diminishes in relative importance during spring and summer. Runoff rates per contributing area are highest (lowest) on the eastern (western) shores of the Hudson and James Bays. Linear trend analyses reveal decreasing discharge over the 37-yr period in 36 out of the 42 rivers. By 2000, the total annual freshwater discharge into HJUBs diminished by 96 km3 (-13%) from its value in 1964, equivalent to a reduction of 0.003 Sv. The annual peak discharge rate associated with snowmelt has advanced by 8 days between 1964 and 2000 and has diminished by 0.036 km3 day-1 in intensity. There is a direct correlation between the timing of peak spring discharge rates and the latitude of a river's mouth; the spring freshet varies by 5 days for each degree of latitude. Continental snowmelt induces a seasonal pulse of freshwater from HJUBs that is tracked along its path into the Labrador Current. It is suggested that the annual upper-ocean salinity minimum observed on the inner Newfoundland Shelf can be explained by freshwater pulses composed of meltwater from three successive winter seasons in the river basins draining into HJUBs. A gradual salinization of the upper ocean during summer over the period 1966-94 on the inner Newfoundland Shelf is in accord with a decadal trend of a diminishing intensity in the continental meltwater pulses.

Impact of drought on the North America carbon balance: implications for global carbon mitigation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Liu, J.; Parazoo, N.; Bloom, A. A.; Wunch, D.; Jiang, Z.; Gurney, K. R.; Schimel, D.

2017-12-01

Drought and heat events are significant contributors to the interanual variability of terrestrial biosphere carbon flux in temperate North America. In order to be understand the drivers of this variability, we quantified the impact of two drought events in Texas and Mexico in 2011 as wells as the United States Midwest in 2012 on Net Biome Exchange, Gross Primary Productivity, Biomass Burning, and total ecosystem respiration using the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) carbon cycle data assimilation system constrained with a suite of satellite observations. The global spatial distribution of NBE was constrained by column CO2 (XCO2) observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) accounting for fossil fuel contributions, while GPP was estimated with Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), and biomass burning was computed from CO emissions constrained by MOPITT. Total ecosystem respiration (TER) was calculated as a residual term. We found that both drought events greatly reduced NBE and GPP during the seasonal peak, but had quite different effects on the annual NBE. Due to the year-long duration of the 2011 Texas-Northern Mexico (Tex-Mex) drought, the annual net uptake was reduced by 0.28 ± 0.10 GtC, which was dominated by the reduction of GPP (-0.34 ± 0.14 GtC). The regional contribution to the atmospheric CO2 growth, which is the sum of fossil fuel emissions and the biosphere net uptake, increased by more than a factor of 3 from an average of 0.09 GtC to 0.30 GtC in 2011. In contrast, a seasonally enhanced NBE in the Midwest partially offset the drought leading to an annual NBE reduction of only 0.16 ± 0.16 GtC. The reduction of net carbon uptake from the 2011 and 2012 drought impact was 50% and 25% respectively of the regional annual fossil fuel emissions. The results show that climate variability needs to be considered in order to relate carbon mitigation strategies to regional and global CO2 growth rates.

Evaluation of the solar conditions for the acquisitions of energy from renewable sources on the base of Sosnowiec city (Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarapata, Sonia

2014-09-01

The country's energy security risk, as well as a desire to protect the environment from the pollution and degradation which are the results of conventional fuels acquisition - these was a motivation for intensive researches on the use of renewable energy sources in eco - innovative installations. Solar radiation is one of the self - renewable energy sources which can be used both as a source of electricity and heat. The area of research is Sosnowiec city located in the south of Poland in the eastern part of Silesia voivodeship. The solar radiation data covering the years 2003 to 2013 was used. The intra - annual variability of daily averaged solar radiation hesitated in a wide range from 0.6 kWh/m2 (December) to 5.2 kWh/m2 (June). Day duration varies on average from 10 hours in January, November and December to 17 hours in May, June and July. Day occupies 56% of the 8767 hours in year. On average the largest amount of energy reached the analyzed area in July: 157 kWh/m2 (15% of the annual average), while the smallest in December: 18 kWh/m2 (less than 2% of the annual average). The 75% of the average annual total of energy falls on the period from 1st March to 31th August (spring - summer). The range of the annual solar radiation was determined by the minimum of 980 kWh/m2 and the maximum of 1094 kWh/m2. In Sosnowiec the average annual irradiation total on the horizontal surface amounts to 1052 kWh/m2 (2003 - 2013)

Road trauma among young Australians: Implementing policy to reduce road deaths and serious injury.

PubMed

Walker, Clara; Thompson, Jason; Stevenson, Mark

2017-05-19

The objective of this study was to estimate the likely reduction in road trauma associated with the implementation of effective interventions to reduce road trauma among young Australians. A desktop evaluation was conducted to model the likely reduction in road trauma (deaths and serious injuries resulting in hospitalization) among young people aged 17-24 years residing in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. Potential interventions were identified using a rapid literature review and assigned a score based on evidence of effectiveness and implementation feasibility with the 3 highest scoring interventions included in the modeling. Likely reduction in road trauma was estimated by applying the average risk reduction effect sizes for each intervention to baseline risk (passenger or driver death or serious injury per 100,000 population) of road trauma for young Australians. Point estimates were calculated for the potential number of deaths and serious injuries averted in each state and per 100,000 population, with a one-way sensitivity analysis conducted using uncertainty ranges identified. Peer passenger and night driving restrictions as well as improved vehicle safety measures had the greatest potential to reduce road trauma. Peer passenger restrictions could avert 14 (range: 5-24) and 24 (range: 8-41) hospitalizations per year in Queensland and New South Wales, respectively, and night driving restrictions could avert 17 (range: 7-26), 28 (range: 12-45), and 13 (range: 6-21) hospitalizations annually in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. These interventions reduced fatalities by less than 1 death annually in each state. Improved vehicle safety measures could avert 0-3, 0-4, and 0-3 deaths and 3-91, 4-156, and 2-75 hospitalizations in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. Key elements of graduated licensing (peer passenger and night driving restrictions) along with vehicle safety interventions offer modest but practically significant reductions in road trauma for young Australians. State governments need to revise current legislation to ensure that these reductions in road trauma can be realized.

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

20 CFR 226.63 - Determining monthly compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... obtained by dividing the average annual wage for the indexing year by the average annual wage for the year... wage for 1951 is used. (2) Indexing year defined. The indexing year is the second year before the year...

Schedule of average annual equipment ownership expense

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-03-06

The "Schedule of Average Annual Equipment Ownership Expense" is designed for use on Force Account bills of Contractors performing work for the Illinois Department of Transportation and local government agencies who choose to adopt these rates. This s...

42 CFR 413.88 - Incentive payments under plans for voluntary reduction in number of medical residents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... voluntary residency reduction plan. (5) Updates to annual and cumulative targets (i) Except as provided in... paragraphs (g)(2) and (g)(3) of this section. (ii) An entity may update annual reduction targets specified in... used for direct GME payments for the last residency training year in which a qualifying entity...

The Great Basin Canada goose in southcentral Washington: A 40-year nesting history

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fitzner, R.E.; Rickard, W.H.; Eberhardt, L.E.

1991-04-01

Overall, the nesting population of Great Basin Canada geese (Branta canadensis moffitti) on the Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State is doing well and appears to be increasing. The average annual total nests for the period 1981 through 1990 was 215 nests, which is slightly above the average reported for the period 1950 through 1970. The nesting population has shifted its nucleus from upriver islands (1--10) to the lower river islands (11--20) with over 70% of the present-day nesting occurring on Islands 17, 18, 19, 20. The annual percent-successful nests from 1981 through 1990 was 80%. This is above themore » 71% reported for 1950 to 1970, but is below the 82% reported for 1971 to 1980. Average annual clutch size for 1981 to 1990 was 6.05, which is above the 1971-to-1980 average of 5.6 and the 1950-to-70 average of 5.5. Next desertions for 1981 to 1990 averaged 8%. This rate is well below the 14% reported for 1950 to 1970. Predators were responsible for an annual predation rate of 9% from 1981 to 1990. This is below the 1950-to-1970 annual average predation rate of 14%. Flooding losses to nests were low during the 1980s, except for 1989 and 1990 when 6% and 9% of the total nests, respectively, were destroyed by flooding. 9 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.« less

Implementation of a national external quality assessment program for medical laboratories in Burkina Faso: challenges, lessons learned, and perspectives.

PubMed

Sakandé, Jean; Nikièma, Abdoulaye; Kabré, Elie; Sawadogo, Charles; Nacoulma, Eric W; Sanou, Mamadou; Sangaré, Lassana; Traoré-Ouédraogo, Rasmata; Sawadogo, Mamadou; Gershy-Damet, Guy Michel

2014-02-01

The National External Quality Assessment (NEQA) program of Burkina Faso is a proficiency testing program mandatory for all laboratories in the country since 2006. The program runs two cycles per year and covers all areas of laboratories. All panels were validated by the expert committee before dispatch under optimal storage and transport conditions to participating laboratories along with report forms. Performance in the last 5 years varied by panel, with average annual performance of bacteriology panels for all laboratories rising from 75% in 2006 to 81% in 2010 and with a best average performance of 87% in 2007 and 2008. During the same period, malaria microscopy performance varied from 85% to 94%, with a best average performance of 94% in 2010; chemistry performance increased from 87% to 94%, with a best average annual performance of 97% in 2009. Hematology showed more variation in performance, ranging from 61% to 86%, with a best annual average performance of 90% in 2008. Average annual performance for immunology varied less between 2006 and 2010, recording 97%, 90%, and 95%. Except for malaria microscopy, annual performances for enrolled panels varied substantially from year to year, indicating some difficulty in maintaining consistency in quality. The main challenges of the NEQA program observed between 2006 to 2010 were funding, sourcing, and safe transportation of quality panels to all laboratories countrywide.

Hydrology of Jumper Creek Canal basin, Sumter County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Warren

1980-01-01

Jumper Creek Canal basin in Sumter County, Florida, was investigated to evaluate the overall hydrology and effects of proposed flood-control works on the hydrologic regiment of the canal. Average annual rainfall in the 83-square mile basin is about 53 inches of which about 10 inches runs off in the canal. Average annual evapotranspiration is estimated at about 37 inches. Pumping from limestone mines has lowered the potentiometeric surface in the upper part of the basin, but it has not significantly altered the basin yield. Channel excavation to reduce flooding is proposed with seven control structures located to prevent overdrainage. The investigation indicates that implementation of the proposed plan will result in a rise in the potentiometric surface n the upper basin, a reduction is surface outflow, an increase in subsurface outflow, an increase in the gradient of the potentiometeric surface of the Floridan aquifer, an increase in leakage from the canal to the aquifer in the upper basin, and an increase in the magnitude of flood flows from the basin. Ground water in Jumper Creek basin is a bicarbonate type. Very high concentrations of dissolved iron were found in shallow wells and in some deep wells. Sulfate and strontium were relatively high in wells in the lower basin. (Kosco-USGS)

France.

PubMed

1987-09-01

In 1986, France had a population of 55,493,000, with an annual growth rate of 0.4%. The infant mortality rate stood at 8.2/1000. Of the work force of 23.8 million, 8.3% were engaged in agriculture, 45.2% were in the industry and commerce sector, and 46.5% were engaged in services. The unemployment rate stood at 10.7%. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) was US$724 billion in 1986, with an average annual growth rate of 2.0%, and per capita income averaged $13,046. France has substantial agricultural resources, a diversified modern industrial system, and a highly skilled labor force. Following the return of a socialist majority in government in 1981, several large manufacturing firms were nationalized along with much of the commercial banking sector. Initial socialist policies were stimulative, relying partly on income redistribution and partly on increased government spending. However, the resultant increase in import demand was not offset by an increased demand French exports. In 1983, an economic stabilization plan of reductions in the budget deficit, involving spending cuts, increased taxes, and tighter monetary and credit policies, was successfully implemented. Although current economic policies should promote stronger growth over the medium to long term, trade competitiveness remains weak and high unemployment is a major social problem.

Annual ADEA Survey of Dental School Seniors: 2016 Graduating Class.

PubMed

Wanchek, Tanya; Cook, Bryan J; Valachovic, Richard W

2017-05-01

This report examines the results of the American Dental Education Association (ADEA) Survey of Dental School Seniors graduating in 2016. Data were collected from 4,558 respondents at all 59 U.S. dental schools with graduating classes that year. This annual survey asks graduating students about a variety of topics in order to understand their motivation for attending dental school, educational experiences while in school, debt incurred, and plans following graduation. Motivations for choosing to attend dental school typically involved family or friends who were dentists or students' personal experiences. The timing of the decision to enter dentistry has been getting earlier over time. Similar to previous years, the average graduating student had above $200,000 in student debt. However, for the first time in two decades, inflation-adjusted debt decreased slightly. The reduction in debt was due to students from private schools reducing their average debt by $23,401. Immediately after graduation, most seniors planned to enter private practice (50.5%) or advanced dental education (33.8%). Approximately half of the respondents planned to work in underserved areas at some point in their careers. These findings underscore the continued value of the senior survey to offer a unique view of the diverse characteristics and career paths of the future dental workforce.

High-Performance Integrated Control of water quality and quantity in urban water reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.; Goedbloed, A.

2015-11-01

This paper contributes a novel High-Performance Integrated Control framework to support the real-time operation of urban water supply storages affected by water quality problems. We use a 3-D, high-fidelity simulation model to predict the main water quality dynamics and inform a real-time controller based on Model Predictive Control. The integration of the simulation model into the control scheme is performed by a model reduction process that identifies a low-order, dynamic emulator running 4 orders of magnitude faster. The model reduction, which relies on a semiautomatic procedural approach integrating time series clustering and variable selection algorithms, generates a compact and physically meaningful emulator that can be coupled with the controller. The framework is used to design the hourly operation of Marina Reservoir, a 3.2 Mm3 storm-water-fed reservoir located in the center of Singapore, operated for drinking water supply and flood control. Because of its recent formation from a former estuary, the reservoir suffers from high salinity levels, whose behavior is modeled with Delft3D-FLOW. Results show that our control framework reduces the minimum salinity levels by nearly 40% and cuts the average annual deficit of drinking water supply by about 2 times the active storage of the reservoir (about 4% of the total annual demand).

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

25 CFR 30.116 - If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other methods may it use to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... participated in the assessment. (b) Method B—Uniform Averaging Procedure. A school may use uniform averaging... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable... Adequate Yearly Progress § 30.116 If a school fails to achieve its annual measurable objectives, what other...

Satellite derived estimates of forest leaf area index in South-west Western Australia are not tightly coupled to inter-annual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smettem, Keith; Waring, Richard; Callow, Nik; Wilson, Melissa; Mu, Qiaozhen

2013-04-01

There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. Ecological optimality proposes that the long term average canopy size of undisturbed perennial vegetation is tightly coupled to climate. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study we analysed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of South-west Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000-2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, inter-annual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long term decline in areal average underground water storage storage and diminished summer flows, with a trend towards more ephemeral flow regimes.

Estimation of annual average daily traffic for off-system roads in Florida

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-07-28

Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is extremely important in traffic planning and operations for the state departments of transportation (DOTs), because AADT provides information for the planning of new road construction, determination...

Effects of Caps on Cost Sharing for Skilled Nursing Facility Services in Medicare Advantage Plans.

PubMed

Keohane, Laura M; Rahman, Momotazur; Thomas, Kali S; Trivedi, Amal N

2018-03-12

To evaluate a federal regulation effective in 2011 that limited how much that Medicare Advantage (MA) plans could charge for the first 20 days of care in a skilled nursing facility (SNF). Difference-in-differences retrospective analysis comparing SNF utilization trends from 2008-2012. Select MA plans. Members of 27 plans with mandatory cost sharing reductions (n=132,000) and members of 21 plans without such reductions (n=138,846). Mean monthly number of SNF admissions and days per 1,000 members; annual proportion of MA enrollees exiting the plan. In plans with mandated cost sharing reductions, cost sharing for the first 20 days of SNF care decreased from an average of $2,039 in 2010 to $992 in 2011. In adjusted analyses, plans with mandated cost-sharing reductions averaged 158.1 SNF days (95% confidence interval (CI)=153.2-163.1 days) per 1,000 members per month before the cost sharing cap. This measure increased by 14.3 days (95% CI=3.8-24.8 days, p=0.009) in the 2 years after cap implementation. However, increases in SNF utilization did not significantly differ between plans with and without mandated cost-sharing reductions (adjusted between-group difference: 7.1 days per 1,000 members, 95% CI=-6.5-20.8, p=.30). Disenrollment patterns did not change after the cap took effect. When a federal regulation designed to protect MA members from high out-of-pocket costs for postacute care took effect, the use of SNF services did not change. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

Radiation dose reduction: comparative assessment of publication volume between interventional and diagnostic radiology.

PubMed

Hansmann, Jan; Henzler, Thomas; Gaba, Ron C; Morelli, John N

2017-01-01

We aimed to quantify and compare awareness regarding radiation dose reduction within the interventional radiology and diagnostic radiology communities. Abstracts accepted to the annual meetings of the Society of Interventional Radiology (SIR), the Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiological Society of Europe (CIRSE), the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA), and the European Congress of Radiology (ECR) between 2005 and 2015 were analyzed using the search terms "interventional/computed tomography" and "radiation dose/radiation dose reduction." A PubMed query using the above-mentioned search terms for the years of 2005-2015 was performed. Between 2005 and 2015, a total of 14 520 abstracts (mean, 660±297 abstracts) and 80 614 abstracts (mean, 3664±1025 abstracts) were presented at interventional and diagnostic radiology meetings, respectively. Significantly fewer abstracts related to radiation dose were presented at the interventional radiology meetings compared with the diagnostic radiology meetings (162 abstracts [1% of total] vs. 2706 [3% of total]; P < 0.001). On average 15±7 interventional radiology abstracts (range, 6-27) and 246±105 diagnostic radiology abstracts (range, 112-389) pertaining to radiation dose were presented at each meeting. The PubMed query revealed an average of 124±39 publications (range, 79-187) and 1205±307 publications (range, 829-1672) related to interventional and diagnostic radiology dose reduction per year, respectively (P < 0.001). The observed increase in the number of abstracts regarding radiation dose reduction in the interventional radiology community over the past 10 years has not mirrored the increased volume seen within diagnostic radiology, suggesting that increased education and discussion about this topic may be warranted.

Radiation dose reduction: comparative assessment of publication volume between interventional and diagnostic radiology

PubMed Central

Hansmann, Jan; Henzler, Thomas; Gaba, Ron C.; Morelli, John N.

2017-01-01

PURPOSE We aimed to quantify and compare awareness regarding radiation dose reduction within the interventional radiology and diagnostic radiology communities. METHODS Abstracts accepted to the annual meetings of the Society of Interventional Radiology (SIR), the Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiological Society of Europe (CIRSE), the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA), and the European Congress of Radiology (ECR) between 2005 and 2015 were analyzed using the search terms “interventional/computed tomography” and “radiation dose/radiation dose reduction.” A PubMed query using the above-mentioned search terms for the years of 2005–2015 was performed. RESULTS Between 2005 and 2015, a total of 14 520 abstracts (mean, 660±297 abstracts) and 80 614 abstracts (mean, 3664±1025 abstracts) were presented at interventional and diagnostic radiology meetings, respectively. Significantly fewer abstracts related to radiation dose were presented at the interventional radiology meetings compared with the diagnostic radiology meetings (162 abstracts [1% of total] vs. 2706 [3% of total]; P < 0.001). On average 15±7 interventional radiology abstracts (range, 6–27) and 246±105 diagnostic radiology abstracts (range, 112–389) pertaining to radiation dose were presented at each meeting. The PubMed query revealed an average of 124±39 publications (range, 79–187) and 1205±307 publications (range, 829–1672) related to interventional and diagnostic radiology dose reduction per year, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The observed increase in the number of abstracts regarding radiation dose reduction in the interventional radiology community over the past 10 years has not mirrored the increased volume seen within diagnostic radiology, suggesting that increased education and discussion about this topic may be warranted. PMID:28287072

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

PubMed

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

Evidence for Solar-Cycle Forcing and Secular Variation in the Armagh Observatory Temperature Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1998-01-01

A prominent feature of previous long-term temperature studies has been the appearance of warming since the 1880s, this often being taken as evidence for anthropogenic-induced global warming. In this investigation, the long-term, annual, mean temperature record (1844-1992) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, North Ireland), a set of temperature data based on maximum and minimum thermometers that predates the 1880s and correlates well with northern hemispheric and global standards, is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar-cycle forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both appear to be embedded within the Armagh data. Removal of these effects, each contributing about 8% to the overall reduction in variance, yields residuals that are randomly distributed. Application of the 10-year moving average to the residuals, furthermore, strongly suggests that the behavior of the residuals is episodic, inferring that (for extended periods of time) temperatures at Armagh sometimes were warmer or cooler (than expected), while at other times they were stable. Comparison of cyclic averages of annual mean temperatures against the lengths of the associated Hale cycles (i.e., the length of two, sequentially numbered, even-odd sunspot cycle pairs) strongly suggests that the temperatures correlate inversely (r = -0.886 at less than 2% level of significance) against the length of the associated Hale cycle. Because sunspot cycle 22 ended in 1996, the present Hale cycle probably will be shorter than average, implying that temperatures at Armagh over this Hale cycle will be warmer (about 9.31 q 0.23 C at the 90% confidence level) than average (= 9.00 C).

Decreased summer drought affects plant productivity and soil carbon dynamics in a Mediterranean woodland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotrufo, M. F.; Alberti, G.; Inglima, I.; Marjanović, H.; Lecain, D.; Zaldei, A.; Peressotti, A.; Miglietta, F.

2011-09-01

Precipitation patterns are expected to change in the Mediterranean region within the next decades, with projected decreases in total rainfall and increases in extreme events. We manipulated precipitation patterns in a Mediterranean woodland, dominated by Arbutus unedo L., to study the effects of changing precipitation regimes on above-ground net primary production (ANPP) and soil C dynamics, specifically plant-derived C input to soil and soil respiration (SR). Experimental plots were exposed to either a 20 % reduction of throughfall or to water addition targeted at maintaining soil water content above a minimum of 10 % v/v. Treatments were compared to control plots which received ambient precipitation. Enhanced soil moisture during summer months highly stimulated annual stem primary production, litter fall, SR and net annual plant-derived C input to soil which on average increased by 130 %, 26 %, 58 % and 220 %, respectively, as compared to the control. In contrast, the 20 % reduction in throughfall (equivalent to 10 % reduction in precipitation) did not significantly change soil moisture at the site, and therefore did not significantly affect ANPP or SR. We conclude that minor changes (around 10 % reduction) in precipitation amount are not likely to significantly affect ANPP or soil C dynamics in Mediterranean woodlands. However, if summer rain increases, C cycling will significantly accelerate but soil C stocks are not likely to be changed in the short-term. More studies involving modelling of long-term C dynamics are needed to predict if the estimated increases in soil C input under wet conditions is going to be sustained and if labile C is being substituted to stable C, with a negative effect on long-term soil C stocks.

Decreased summer drought affects plant productivity and soil carbon dynamics in Mediterranean woodland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotrufo, M. F.; Alberti, G.; Inglima, I.; Marjanović, H.; Lecain, D.; Zaldei, A.; Peressotti, A.; Miglietta, F.

2011-06-01

Precipitation patterns are expected to change in the Mediterranean region within the next decades, with projected decreases in total rainfall and increases in extreme events. We manipulated precipitation patterns in a Mediterranean woodland, dominated by Arbutus unedo L., to study the effects of changing precipitation regimes on above-ground net primary production (ANPP) and soil C dynamics, specifically plant-derived C input to soil and soil respiration (SR). Experimental plots were exposed to either a 20 % reduction of throughfall or to water addition targeted at maintaining soil water content above a minimum of 10 % v/v. Treatments were compared to control plots which received ambient precipitation. The throughfall manipulation experiment started in 2004 and we report data up to the 2009 growing season. Enhanced soil moisture during summer months highly stimulated annual stem primary production, litter fall, SR and net annual plant-derived C input to soil which on average increased by 130 %, 26 %, 50 % and 220 %, respectively, as compared to control. In contrast, the 20 % reduction in throughfall (equivalent to 10 % reduction of precipitation) did not significantly change soil moisture at the site, and therefore did not significantly affect ANPP or SR. We conclude that minor changes (around 10 % reduction) in precipitation amount are not likely to significantly affect ANPP or soil C dynamics in Mediterranean woodland. However, if summer rain increases, C cycling will significantly accelerate but soil C stocks are not likely to be changed in the short-term. More studies involving modelling of long term C dynamics are needed to predict if the estimated increases in soil C input under wet conditions is going to be sustained and if labile C is being substituted to stable C, with a negative effect on long term soil C stocks.

Effects of Changes in Irrigation Practices and Aquifer Development on Groundwater Discharge to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve near Salinas, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuniansky, Eve L.; Rodriguez, Jose M.

2010-01-01

Since 1990, about 75 acres of black mangroves have died in the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve near Salinas, Puerto Rico. Although many factors can contribute to the mortality of mangroves, changes in irrigation practices, rainfall, and water use resulted in as much as 25 feet of drawdown in the potentiometric surface of the aquifer in the vicinity of the reserve between 1986 and 2002. To clarify the issue, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, conducted a study to ascertain how aquifer development and changes in irrigation practices have affected groundwater levels and groundwater flow to the Mar Negro area of the reserve. Changes in groundwater flow to the mangrove swamp and bay from 1986 to 2004 were estimated in this study by developing and calibrating a numerical groundwater flow model. The transient simulations indicate that prior to 1994, high irrigation return flows more than offset the effect of reduced groundwater withdrawals. In this case, the simulated discharge to the coast in the modeled area was 19 million gallons per day. From 1994 through 2004, furrow irrigation was completely replaced by micro-drip irrigation, thus eliminating return flows and the simulated average coastal discharge was 7 million gallons per day, a reduction of 63 percent. The simulated average groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps in the reserve from 1986 to 1993 was 2 million gallons per day, compared to an average simulated discharge of 0.2 million gallons per day from 1994 to 2004. The average annual rainfall for each of these periods was 38 inches. The groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps in the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve was estimated at about 0.5 million gallons per day for 2003-2004 because of higher than average annual rainfall during these 2 years. The groundwater flow model was used to test five alternatives for increasing groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps to approximately 1.4 million gallons per day: (1) artificially recharging the aquifer with injection wells or (2) by increasing irrigation return flow by going back to furrow irrigation; (3) termination of groundwater withdrawals near the mangroves; (4) reduction of groundwater withdrawals at irrigation wells by 50 percent; and (5) a combination of alternatives 2 and 4 increasing irrigation return flows and decreasing irrigation withdrawals. Each alternative assumed average climatic conditions and groundwater withdrawals at 2004 rates. Alternative 1 required 1.5 million gallons per day of injected water. Alternative 2 required flooding 958 acres with a rate of 1.84 million gallons per day if no crops are grown. Alternative 3 required the termination of 2.44 million gallons per day of withdrawals to achieve 1.34 million gallons per day of discharge to the mangroves. Alternative 4 did not achieve the objective with only 0.80 million gallons per day simulated discharge to the mangroves, while requiring a 1.26 million gallon per day reduction in groundwater withdrawals. Alternative 5 required flooding fields with additional 1.13 million gallons of day and the same reduction in groundwater withdrawals, but did achieve the objective of about 1.4 million gallons per day discharge to the mangroves. Alternative 1, incorporating injection wells near the reserve required the least amount of water to raise groundwater levels and maintain discharge of 1.4 million gallons per day through the mangroves.

Fall in homicides in the City of São Paulo: an exploratory analysis of possible determinants

PubMed Central

Peres, Maria Fernanda Tourinho; de Almeida, Juliana Feliciano; Vicentin, Diego; Cerda, Magdalena; Cardia, Nancy; Adorno, Sérgio

2012-01-01

Throughout the first decade of the 2000s the homicide mortality rate (HMR) showed a significant reduction in the state and the city of São Paulo (MSP). The aim of this study is to describe the trend of HMR, socio-demographic indicators, and the investment in social and public security, and to analyze the correlation between HMR and independent variables in the MSP between 1996 and 2008. An exploratory time series ecological study was conducted. The following variables were included: HMR per 100,000 inhabitants, socio-demographic indicators, and investments in social and public security. The moving-averages for all variables were calculated and trends were analyzed through Simple Linear Regression models. Annual percentage changes, the average annual change and periodic percentage changes were calculated for all variables, and the associations between annual percentage changes were tested by Spearman’s correlation analysis. Correlations were found for the proportion of youth in the population (r = 0.69), unemployment rate (r = 0.60), State budget for education and culture (r = 0.87) and health and sanitation (r = 0.56), municipal (r = 0.68) and State (r = 0.53) budget for Public Security, firearms seized (r = 0.69) and the incarceration rate (r = 0.71). The results allow us to support the hypothesis that demographic changes, acceleration of the economy, in particular the fall in unemployment, investment in social policies and changes in public security policies act synergistically to reduce HMR in São Paulo. Complex models of analysis, incorporating the joint action of different potential explanatory variables, should be developed. PMID:22218669

Increased evaporation following widespread tree mortality limits streamflow response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Harpold, A. A.; Gochis, D. J.; Ewers, B. E.; Reed, D. E.; Papuga, S. A.; Brooks, P. D.

2014-07-01

A North American epidemic of mountain pine beetle (MPB) has disturbed over 5 million ha of forest containing headwater catchments crucial to water resources. However, there are limited observations of MPB effects on partitioning of precipitation between vapor loss and streamflow, and to our knowledge these fluxes have not been observed simultaneously following disturbance. We combined eddy covariance vapor loss (V), catchment streamflow (Q), and stable isotope indicators of evaporation (E) to quantify hydrologic partitioning over 3 years in MPB-impacted and control sites. Annual control V was conservative, varying only from 573 to 623 mm, while MPB site V varied more widely from 570 to 700 mm. During wet periods, MPB site V was greater than control V in spite of similar above-canopy potential evapotranspiration (PET). During a wet year, annual MPB V was greater and annual Q was lower as compared to an average year, while in a dry year, essentially all water was partitioned to V. Ratios of 2H and 18O in stream and soil water showed no kinetic evaporation at the control site, while MPB isotope ratios fell below the local meteoric water line, indicating greater E and snowpack sublimation (Ss) counteracted reductions in transpiration (T) and sublimation of canopy-intercepted snow (Sc). Increased E was possibly driven by reduced canopy shading of shortwave radiation, which averaged 21 W m-2 during summer under control forest as compared to 66 W m-2 under MPB forest. These results show that abiotic vapor losses may limit widely expected streamflow increases.

76 FR 79579 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans and Designation of Areas for Air Quality...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-22

... posting of the availability of the submittal on EPA's Adequacy Web site (at http://www.epa.gov/otaq... average annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentration), if it had a 1-hour design... ozone standard is attained when the three-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour...

42 CFR 413.88 - Incentive payments under plans for voluntary reduction in number of medical residents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... reduction plan. (5) Updates to annual and cumulative targets (i) Except as provided in paragraph (g)(5)(ii...)(2) and (g)(3) of this section. (ii) An entity may update annual reduction targets specified in its... used for direct GME payments for the last residency training year in which a qualifying entity...

GIS Tools to Estimate Average Annual Daily Traffic

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-01

This project presents five tools that were created for a geographical information system to estimate Annual Average Daily : Traffic using linear regression. Three of the tools can be used to prepare spatial data for linear regression. One tool can be...

West Bank of the Mississippi River in the Vicinity of New Orleans, Louisiana (East of the Harvey Canal) Hurricane Protection Study. Technical Appendixes. Volume 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-01

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, 30-YEAR NORMALS (1951-1980) A-I-3 A-I-2 MEAN MONTHLY AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURE , 30-YEAR NORMALS (1951-1980) A-I-4 A-1-3 AVERAGE ...Environmental Quality (DEQ). CLIMATE The climate of the area is humid si!btropicl. AMual average temperature in the project area is 68°F, with monthly...normal temperatures varying from 82’F in July to 531F in Januwry. Average annual precipitation over tae area is 63 inche!, maiying from a monthly

Native prairie filter strips reduce runoff from hillslopes under annual row-crop systems in Iowa, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Santana, V.; Zhou, X.; Helmers, M. J.; Asbjornsen, H.; Kolka, R.; Tomer, M.

2013-01-01

SummaryIntensively managed annual cropping systems have produced high crop yields but have often produced significant ecosystem services alteration, in particular hydrologic regulation loss. Reconversion of annual agricultural systems to perennial vegetation can lead to hydrologic function restoration, but its effect is still not well understood. Therefore, our objective was to assess the effects of strategic introduction of different amounts and location of native prairie vegetation (NPV) within agricultural landscapes on hydrological regulation. The study was conducted in Iowa (USA), and consisted of a fully balanced, replicated, incomplete block design whereby 12 zero-order ephemeral flow watersheds received four treatments consisting of varying proportions (0%, 10%, and 20%) of prairie vegetation located in different watershed positions (footslope vs. contour strips). Runoff volume and rate were measured from 2008 to 2010 (April-October) with an H-Flume installed in each catchment, and automated ISCO samplers. Over the entire study period, we observed a total of 129 runoff events with an average runoff volume reduction of 37% based on the three treatments with NPV compared to watersheds with row crops. We observed a progressively greater reduction across the 3 years of the study as the perennial strips became established with the greatest differences among treatments occurring in 2010. The differences among the watersheds were attributed mainly to NPV amount and position, with the 10% NPV at footslope treatment having the greatest runoff reduction probably because the portion of NPV filter strip that actually contacted watershed runoff was greater with the 10% NPV at footslope. We observed greater reductions in runoff in spring and fall likely because perennial prairie plants were active and crops were absent or not fully established. High antecedent soil moisture sometimes led to little benefit of the NPV treatments but in general the NPV treatments were effective during both small and large events. We conclude that, small amounts of NPV strategically incorporated into corn-soybean watersheds in the Midwest US can be used to effectively reduce runoff.

Meteorological detrending of primary and secondary pollutant concentrations: Method application and evaluation using long-term (2000-2012) data in Atlanta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henneman, Lucas R. F.; Holmes, Heather A.; Mulholland, James A.; Russell, Armistead G.

2015-10-01

The effectiveness of air pollution regulations and controls are evaluated based on measured air pollutant concentrations. Air pollution levels, however, are highly sensitive to both emissions and meteorological fluctuations. Therefore, an assessment of the change in air pollutant levels due to emissions controls must account for these meteorological fluctuations. Two empirical methods to quantify the impact of meteorology on pollutant levels are discussed and applied to the 13-year time period between 2000 and 2012 in Atlanta, GA. The methods employ Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters and linear regressions to detrended pollutant signals into long-term, seasonal, weekly, short-term, and white-noise components. The methods differ in how changes in weekly and holiday emissions are accounted for. Both can provide meteorological adjustments on a daily basis for future use in acute health analyses. The meteorological impact on daily signals of ozone, NOx, CO, SO2, PM2.5, and PM species are quantified. Analyses show that the substantial decreases in seasonal averages of NOx and SO2 correspond with controls implemented in the metropolitan Atlanta area. Detrending allows for the impacts of some controls to be observed with averaging times of as little as 3 months. Annual average concentrations of NOx, SO2, and CO have all fallen by at least 50% since 2000. Reductions in NOx levels, however, do not lead to uniform reductions in ozone. While average detrended summer average maximum daily average 8 h ozone (MDA8h O3) levels fell by 4% (2.2 ± 2 ppb) between 2000 and 2012, winter averages have increased by 12% (3.8 ± 1.4 ppb), providing further evidence that high ozone levels are NOx-limited and lower ozone concentrations are NOx-inhibited. High ozone days (with MDA8h O3 greater than 60 ppb) decreased both in number and in magnitude over the study period.

Medical cost reductions associated with the usage of novel oral anticoagulants vs warfarin among atrial fibrillation patients, based on the RE-LY, ROCKET-AF, and ARISTOTLE trials.

PubMed

Deitelzweig, Steve; Amin, Alpesh; Jing, Yonghua; Makenbaeva, Dinara; Wiederkehr, Daniel; Lin, Jay; Graham, John

2012-01-01

The randomized clinical trials, RE-LY, ROCKET-AF, and ARISTOTLE, demonstrate that the novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are effective options for stroke prevention among non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. This study aimed to evaluate the medical cost reductions associated with the use of individual NOACs instead of warfarin from the US payer perspective. Rates for efficacy and safety clinical events for warfarin were estimated as the weighted averages from the RE-LY, ROCKET-AF and ARISTOTLE trials, and event rates for NOACs were determined by applying trial hazard ratios or relative risk ratios to such weighted averages. Incremental medical costs to a US health payer of an AF patient experiencing a clinical event during 1 year following the event were obtained from published literature and inflation adjusted to 2010 cost levels. Medical costs, excluding drug costs, were evaluated and compared for each NOAC vs warfarin. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the influence of variations in clinical event rates and incremental costs on the medical cost reduction. In a patient year, the medical cost reduction associated with NOAC usage instead of warfarin was estimated to be -$179, -$89, and -$485 for dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban, respectively. When clinical event rates and costs were allowed to vary simultaneously, through a Monte Carlo simulation, the 95% confidence interval of annual medical costs differences ranged between -$424 and +$71 for dabigatran, -$301 and +$135 for rivaroxaban, and -$741 and -$252 for apixaban, with a negative number indicating a cost reduction. Of the 10,000 Monte-Carlo iterations 92.6%, 79.8%, and 100.0% were associated with a medical cost reduction >$0 for dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban, respectively. Usage of the NOACs, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban may be associated with lower medical (excluding drug costs) costs relative to warfarin, with apixaban having the most substantial medical cost reduction.

Work efficiency improvement of >90% after implementation of an annual inpatient blood products administration consent form

PubMed Central

Lindsay, Holly; Bhar, Saleh; Bonifant, Challice; Sartain, Sarah; Whittle, Sarah B.; Lee-Kim, Youngna; Shah, Mona D.

2018-01-01

Paediatric haematology, oncology and bone marrow transplant (BMT) patients frequently require transfusion of blood products. Our institution required a new transfusion consent be obtained every admission. The objectives of this project were to: revise inpatient blood products consent form to be valid for 1 year, decrease provider time spent consenting from 15 to <5 min per admission, and improve provider frustration with the consent process. Over 6 months, we determined the average number of hospitalisations requiring transfusions in a random sampling of haematology/oncology/BMT inpatients. We surveyed nurses and providers regarding frustration levels and contact required regarding consents. Four and 12 months after implementation of the annual consent, providers and nurses were resurveyed, and new inpatient cohorts were assessed. Comparison of preintervention and postintervention time data allowed calculation of provider time reduction, a surrogate measure of improved work efficiency. Prior to the annual consent, >33 hours were spent over 6 months obtaining consent on 40 patients, with >19 hours spent obtaining consent when no transfusions were administered during admission. Twelve months after annual consent implementation, 97.5% (39/40) of analysed patients had a completed annual blood products transfusion consent and provider work efficiency had improved by 94.6% (>30 hours). Although several surveyed variables improved following annual consent implementation, provider frustration with consent process remained 6 out of a max score of 10, the same level as prior to the intervention. Development of an annual inpatient blood products consent form decreased provider time from 15 to <1 min per admission, decreased consenting numbers and increased work efficiency by >90%. PMID:29333497

Work efficiency improvement of >90% after implementation of an annual inpatient blood products administration consent form.

PubMed

Lindsay, Holly; Bhar, Saleh; Bonifant, Challice; Sartain, Sarah; Whittle, Sarah B; Lee-Kim, Youngna; Shah, Mona D

2018-01-01

Paediatric haematology, oncology and bone marrow transplant (BMT) patients frequently require transfusion of blood products. Our institution required a new transfusion consent be obtained every admission. The objectives of this project were to: revise inpatient blood products consent form to be valid for 1 year, decrease provider time spent consenting from 15 to <5 min per admission, and improve provider frustration with the consent process. Over 6 months, we determined the average number of hospitalisations requiring transfusions in a random sampling of haematology/oncology/BMT inpatients. We surveyed nurses and providers regarding frustration levels and contact required regarding consents. Four and 12 months after implementation of the annual consent, providers and nurses were resurveyed, and new inpatient cohorts were assessed. Comparison of preintervention and postintervention time data allowed calculation of provider time reduction, a surrogate measure of improved work efficiency. Prior to the annual consent, >33 hours were spent over 6 months obtaining consent on 40 patients, with >19 hours spent obtaining consent when no transfusions were administered during admission. Twelve months after annual consent implementation, 97.5% (39/40) of analysed patients had a completed annual blood products transfusion consent and provider work efficiency had improved by 94.6% (>30 hours). Although several surveyed variables improved following annual consent implementation, provider frustration with consent process remained 6 out of a max score of 10, the same level as prior to the intervention. Development of an annual inpatient blood products consent form decreased provider time from 15 to <1 min per admission, decreased consenting numbers and increased work efficiency by >90%.

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: the case of toll concessions in Spain.

PubMed

Rangel, Thais; Vassallo, José Manuel; Herraiz, Israel

2013-10-01

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new approach for assessing the future of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, James J.; Whittemore, Donald O.; Wilson, Blake B.; Bohling, Geoffrey C.

2016-03-01

Aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture are under stress worldwide as a result of large pumping-induced water deficits. To aid in the formulation of more sustainable management plans for such systems, we have developed a water balance approach for assessing the impact of proposed management actions and the prospects for aquifer sustainability. Application to the High Plains aquifer (HPA) in the state of Kansas in the United States reveals that practically achievable reductions in annual pumping (<22%) would have stabilized areally averaged water levels over much of the Kansas HPA from 1996 to 2013. This demonstrates that modest pumping reductions can have a significant impact and highlights the importance of reliable pumping data for determining the net inflow (capture) component of the water balance. The HPA is similar to many aquifers supporting critically needed agricultural production, so the presented approach should prove of value far beyond the area of this initial application.

Discrete event simulation model of sudden cardiac death predicts high impact of preventive interventions.

PubMed

Andreev, Victor P; Head, Trajen; Johnson, Neil; Deo, Sapna K; Daunert, Sylvia; Goldschmidt-Clermont, Pascal J

2013-01-01

Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) is responsible for at least 180,000 deaths a year and incurs an average cost of $286 billion annually in the United States alone. Herein, we present a novel discrete event simulation model of SCD, which quantifies the chains of events associated with the formation, growth, and rupture of atheroma plaques, and the subsequent formation of clots, thrombosis and on-set of arrhythmias within a population. The predictions generated by the model are in good agreement both with results obtained from pathological examinations on the frequencies of three major types of atheroma, and with epidemiological data on the prevalence and risk of SCD. These model predictions allow for identification of interventions and importantly for the optimal time of intervention leading to high potential impact on SCD risk reduction (up to 8-fold reduction in the number of SCDs in the population) as well as the increase in life expectancy.

National Economic Development Procedures Manual. Coastal Storm Damage and Erosion

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

study area is temperate with warm summers and moderate winters. The annual temperature averages approximately 53 degrees Fahrenheit (*F). On average ...January is the coolest month with a mean temperature of 32°F and July is the warmest month. The average annual precipitation is about 45 inches with...0704.0188 Public rooing burden for rhr$ LoIlecton of ,nformaton .s estma eO to average I hour oer resiorse including the time for resrewing inttuctiOn

EnviroAtlas - Biological nitrogen fixation in natural/semi-natural ecosystems by 12-digit HUC for the Conterminous United States, 2006

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This EnviroAtlas dataset contains data on the mean biological nitrogen fixation in natural/semi-natural ecosystems per 12-digit Hydrologic Unit (HUC) in 2006. Biological N fixation (BNF) in natural/semi-natural ecosystems was estimated using a correlation with actual evapotranspiration (AET). This correlation is based on a global meta-analysis of BNF in natural/semi-natural ecosystems (Cleveland et al. 1999). AET estimates for 2006 were calculated using a regression equation describing the correlation of AET with climate (average annual daily temperature, average annual minimum daily temperature, average annual maximum daily temperature, and annual precipitation) and land use/land cover variables in the conterminous US (Sanford and Selnick 2013). Data describing annual average minimum and maximum daily temperatures and total precipitation for 2006 were acquired from the PRISM climate dataset (http://prism.oregonstate.edu). Average annual climate data were then calculated for individual 12-digit USGS Hydrologic Unit Codes (HUC12s; http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html; 22 March 2011 release) using the Zonal Statistics tool in ArcMap 10.0. AET for individual HUC12s was estimated using equations described in Sanford and Selnick (2013). BNF in natural/semi-natural ecosystems within individual HUC12s was modeled with an equation describing the statistical relationship between BNF (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and actual evapotranspiration (AET; cm yr-1) and scaled to the proportion

Invasion of non-native grasses causes a drop in soil carbon storage in California grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koteen, Laura E.; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Harte, John

2011-10-01

Vegetation change can affect the magnitude and direction of global climate change via its effect on carbon cycling among plants, the soil and the atmosphere. The invasion of non-native plants is a major cause of land cover change, of biodiversity loss, and of other changes in ecosystem structure and function. In California, annual grasses from Mediterranean Europe have nearly displaced native perennial grasses across the coastal hillsides and terraces of the state. Our study examines the impact of this invasion on carbon cycling and storage at two sites in northern coastal California. The results suggest that annual grass invasion has caused an average drop in soil carbon storage of 40 Mg/ha in the top half meter of soil, although additional mechanisms may also contribute to soil carbon losses. We attribute the reduction in soil carbon storage to low rates of net primary production in non-native annuals relative to perennial grasses, a shift in rooting depth and water use to primarily shallow sources, and soil respiratory losses in non-native grass soils that exceed production rates. These results indicate that even seemingly subtle land cover changes can significantly impact ecosystem functions in general, and carbon storage in particular.

Analysis of the solar radiation data for Beer Sheva, Israel, and its environs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kudish, A.I.; Ianetz, A.

The solar radiation climate of Beer Sheva, Israel, is reported upon in detail. The database utilized in this analysis consisted of global radiation on a horizontal surface, normal incidence beam radiation, and global radiation on a south-facing surface tilted at 40{degree}. Monthly-average hourly and daily values are reported for each of these three types of measured radiations, together with the calculated monthly-average daily values for the components of the global radiation, viz. the horizontal beam and diffuse radiations. The monthly-average hourly and daily clearness index values have also been calculated and analyzed. Monthly-average daily frequency distributions of the clearness indexmore » values are reported for each month. The solar radiation climate of Beer Sheva has also been compared to those reported for a number of countries in this region. The annual-average daily global radiation incident on a horizontal surface is 18.91 MG/m{sup 2} and that for normal incidence beam radiation is 21.17 MG/m{sup 2}. The annual-average daily fraction of the horizontal global radiation that is beam is 0.72. The annual-average daily value for the clearness index is 0.587 and the average frequency of clear days annually is 58.6%. The authors conclude, based upon the above analysis, that Beer Sheva and its environs are characterized by relatively high, average-daily irradiation rates, both global and beam, and a relatively high frequency of clear days.« less

Subsurface recharge to the Tesuque aquifer system from selected drainage basins along the western side of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near Santa Fe, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wasiolek, Maryann

1995-01-01

Water budgets developed for basins of five streams draining the western side of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in northern New Mexico indicate that subsurface inflow along the mountain front is recharging the Tesuque aquifer system of the Espanola Basin. Approximately 14,700 acre-feet of water per year, or 12.7 percent of average annual precipitation over the mountains, is calculated to leave the mountain block and enter the basin as subsurface recharge from the drainage basins of the Rio Nambe, Rio en Medio, Tesuque Creek, Little Tesuque Creek, and Santa Fe River. About 5,520 acre- feet per year, or about 12 percent of average annual precipitation, is calculated to enter from the Rio Nambe drainage basin; about 1,710 acre- feet per year, or about 15 percent of average annual precipitation, is calculated to enter from the Rio en Medio drainage basin; about 1,530 acre- feet, or about 10 percent of average annual precipi- tation, is calculated to enter from the Tesuque Creek drainage basin; about 1,790 acre-feet, or about 19 percent of average annual precipitation, is calculated to enter from the Little Tesuque Creek drainage basin; and about 4,170 acre-feet per year, or about 12 percent average annual precipitation, is calculated to enter from the Santa Fe River drainage basin. Calculated subsurface recharge values were used to define maximum fluxes permitted along the specified-flux boundary defining the mountain front of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains in a numerical computer model of the Tesuque aquifer system near Santa Fe, New Mexico.

77 FR 14366 - Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average Total Assets That Defines Community Financial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-09

... FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY [No. 2012-N-02] Notice of Annual Adjustment of the Cap on Average.... ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has adjusted the cap on average total... statutory cap.\\2\\ The Bank Act was amended in 2008 to set the statutory cap at $1 billion and to require the...

75 FR 71446 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Reports of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-23

... information regarding these corrections and removals and to determine whether recall action is adequate... Annual Reporting Burden\\1\\ Annual 21 CFR section Number of frequency per Total annual Hours per Total... Average Annual Recordkeeping Burden \\1\\ Annual 21 CFR Section Number of frequency per Total annual Hours...

Testing the Wisconsin Phosphorus Index with year-round, field-scale runoff monitoring.

PubMed

Good, Laura W; Vadas, Peter; Panuska, John C; Bonilla, Carlos A; Jokela, William E

2012-01-01

The Wisconsin Phosphorus Index (WPI) is one of several P indices in the United States that use equations to describe actual P loss processes. Although for nutrient management planning the WPI is reported as a dimensionless whole number, it is calculated as average annual dissolved P (DP) and particulate P (PP) mass delivered per unit area. The WPI calculations use soil P concentration, applied manure and fertilizer P, and estimates of average annual erosion and average annual runoff. We compared WPI estimated P losses to annual P loads measured in surface runoff from 86 field-years on crop fields and pastures. As the erosion and runoff generated by the weather in the monitoring years varied substantially from the average annual estimates used in the WPI, the WPI and measured loads were not well correlated. However, when measured runoff and erosion were used in the WPI field loss calculations, the WPI accurately estimated annual total P loads with a Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE) of 0.87. The DP loss estimates were not as close to measured values (NSE = 0.40) as the PP loss estimates (NSE = 0.89). Some errors in estimating DP losses may be unavoidable due to uncertainties in estimating on-farm manure P application rates. The WPI is sensitive to field management that affects its erosion and runoff estimates. Provided that the WPI methods for estimating average annual erosion and runoff are accurately reflecting the effects of management, the WPI is an accurate field-level assessment tool for managing runoff P losses. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Medical expenditures in division I collegiate athletics: an analysis by sport and gender.

PubMed

Kaeding, Christopher C; Borchers, James; Oman, Janine; Pedroza, Angela

2014-09-01

Medical expenses for collegiate athletics include providing a training room with its supplies, equipment, personnel costs, and insurance coverage. Additional expenses beyond the training room include imaging, diagnostic testing, specialty consultations, and surgeries. We hypothesized that there would be no difference in average expenses or number of claims between male and female athletes over a 5-year period. Prospective patient cohort. A sports medicine center serving athletes in Big 10 Conference intercollegiate sports. All medical claims and charges for 36 varsity teams were analyzed from 2005 to 2010. The teams were categorized into 3 groups: female-only teams, male-only teams, and coed teams. Analysis of sports with corresponding male and female teams was also performed. Claims and charges for medical care for 36 intercollegiate athletic teams over 5 years. Individual team claims and charges were stable over the study period. In 11 of the 14 sex-matched sports, the female teams had higher average annual charges. After normalizing for roster size in the sex-matched sports, females had 0.97 more average annual claims (P < 0.01) and $1459 higher annual charges (P = 0.001) than their male counterparts. The charges per claim were similar between the sexes. The 5 teams with the highest average annual charges were football, wrestling, softball, women's crew, and men's lacrosse. When normalized for roster size, the 5 sports with the highest average annual charges per athlete were softball, women's diving, men's basketball, wrestling, and men's gymnastics. Charges per claim were similar between the sex-matched sports, but the female sports had a higher number of annual claims per athlete and thus higher total charges per athlete/year. Football had the highest average annual total charges as a team, but when normalized for roster size football charges per athlete/year were similar to those of other sports.

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

40 CFR 80.90 - Conventional gasoline baseline emissions determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Conventional gasoline baseline... gasoline baseline emissions determination. (a) Annual average baseline values. For any facility of a refiner or importer of conventional gasoline, the annual average baseline values of the facility's exhaust...

Acid rain monitoring in East-Central Florida from 1977 to present

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madsen, B. C.; Kheoh, T.; Hinkle, C. R.; Dreschel, T. W.

1990-01-01

Rainfall has been collected on the University of Central Florida campus and at the Kennedy Space Center over a 12 year period. The chemical composition has been determined and summarized by monthly, annual periods, and for the entire 12 year period at both locations. The weighted average pH at each site is 4.58; however, annual weighted average pH has been equal to or above the 12 year average during six of the past eight years. Nitrate concentrations have increased slightly during recent years while excess sulfate concentrations have remained below the 12 year weighted average during six of the past seven years. Stepwise regression suggests that sulfate, nitrate, ammonium ion and calcium play major roles in the description of rainwater acidity. Annual acid deposition and annual rainfall have varied from 20 to 50 meg/(m(exp 2) year) and 100 to 180 cm/year, respectively. Sea salt comprises at least 25 percent of the total ionic composition.

Climate, soil water storage, and the average annual water balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

1994-01-01

This paper describes the development and testing of the hypothesis that the long-term water balance is determined only by the local interaction of fluctuating water supply (precipitation) and demand (potential evapotranspiration), mediated by water storage in the soil. Adoption of this hypothesis, together with idealized representations of relevant input variabilities in time and space, yields a simple model of the water balance of a finite area having a uniform climate. The partitioning of average annual precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff depends on seven dimensionless numbers: the ratio of average annual potential evapotranspiration to average annual precipitation (index of dryness); the ratio of the spatial average plant-available water-holding capacity of the soil to the annual average precipitation amount; the mean number of precipitation events per year; the shape parameter of the gamma distribution describing spatial variability of storage capacity; and simple measures of the seasonality of mean precipitation intensity, storm arrival rate, and potential evapotranspiration. The hypothesis is tested in an application of the model to the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, with no calibration. Study area averages of runoff and evapotranspiration, based on observations, are 263 mm and 728 mm, respectively; the model yields corresponding estimates of 250 mm and 741 mm, respectively, and explains 88% of the geographical variance of observed runoff within the study region. The differences between modeled and observed runoff can be explained by uncertainties in the model inputs and in the observed runoff. In the humid (index of dryness <1) parts of the study area, the dominant factor producing runoff is the excess of annual precipitation over annual potential evapotranspiration, but runoff caused by variability of supply and demand over time is also significant; in the arid (index of dryness >1) parts, all of the runoff is caused by variability of forcing over time. Contributions to model runoff attributable to small-scale spatial variability of storage capacity are insignificant throughout the study area. The consistency of the model with observational data is supportive of the supply-demand-storage hypothesis, which neglects infiltration excess runoff and other finite-permeability effects on the soil water balance.

Rocky mountain spotted fever hospitalizations among American Indians.

PubMed

Demma, Linda J; Holman, Robert C; Mikosz, Christina A; Curns, Aaron T; Swerdlow, David L; Paisano, Edna L; Cheek, James E

2006-09-01

To describe the epidemiology of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) among American Indians/Alaska Natives (AI/ANs), we conducted a retrospective analysis of hospitalization records with an RMSF diagnosis using Indian Health Service (IHS) hospital discharge data for calendar years 1980-2003. A total of 261 RMSF hospitalizations were reported among AIs, for an average annual hospitalization rate of 1.21 per 100,000 persons; two deaths were reported (0.8%). Most hospitalizations (88.5%) occurred in the Southern Plains region, where the rate was 4.23 per 100,000 persons. Children 1-4 years of age had the highest age-specific hospitalization rate of 2.50 per 100,000 persons. The overall annual RMSF hospitalization rate declined during the study period. Understanding the epidemiology of RMSF among AI/ANs and educating IHS/tribal physicians on the diagnosis of tick-borne diseases remain important for the prompt treatment of RMSF and the reduction of the disease occurrence among AI/ANs, particularly in high-risk areas.

Modelling the regulation effects of lowland polder with pumping station on hydrological processes and phosphorus loads.

PubMed

Yan, Renhua; Li, Lingling; Gao, Junfeng

2018-05-08

Exploring the hydrological regulation of a lowland polder is essential for increasing knowledge regarding the role of polders associated with pumping stations in lowlands. In this study, the Lowland Polder Hydrology and Phosphorus modelling System (PHPS) was applied to the Jianwei polder as a case study for quantifying the regulation effects of a lowland polder with pumping on discharge and phosphorus loads. The results indicate that the polder significantly affected the temporal distribution and annual amount of catchment discharge. Compared with a no-pumping scenario, an agricultural polder with pumping stations generated a sharper discharge hydrograph with higher peak-values and lower minimum-values, as well as an 8.6% reduction in average annual discharge. It also decreased the phosphorus export to downstream water bodies by 5.33 kg/hm 2 /yr because of widespread ditches and ponds, a lower hydraulic gradient, and increased retention times of surface water in ponds. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Particulate matter air pollution in Europe in a +2 °C warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacressonnière, Gwendoline; Watson, Laura; Gauss, Michael; Engardt, Magnuz; Andersson, Camilla; Beekmann, Matthias; Colette, Augustin; Foret, Gilles; Josse, Béatrice; Marécal, Virginie; Nyiri, Agnes; Siour, Guillaume; Sobolowski, Stefan; Vautard, Robert

2017-04-01

In the framework of the IMPACT2C project, we have evaluated the future European particulate matter concentrations under the influence of climate change and anthropogenic emission reductions. To do so, 30-year simulations for present and future scenarios were performed with an ensemble of four regional Chemical Transport Models. +2 °C scenarios were issued from different regional climate simulations belonging to the CORDEX experiment (RCP4.5 scenario). Comparing present day simulations to observations shows that these simulations meet the requested quality criteria even if some biases do exist. Also, we showed that using regional climate models instead of meteorological reanalysis was not critical for the quality of our simulations. Present day as well as future scenarios show the large variability between models associated with different meteorology and process parameterizations. Future projections of PM concentrations show a large reduction of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in a +2 °C climate over the European continent (especially over Benelux), which can be mostly attributed to emission reduction policies. Under a current legislation scenario, annual PM10 could be reduced by between 1.8 and 2.9 μg m-3 (14.1-20.4%). If maximum technologically feasible emission reductions were implemented, further reductions of 1.4-1.9 μg m-3 (18.6-20.9%) are highlighted. Changes due to a +2 °C warming, in isolation from emission changes, are in general much weaker (-1.1 to +0.4 μg m-3,-0.3 to +5.1% for annual PM10 averaged over the European domain). Even if large differences exist between models, we have determined that the decrease of PM over Europe associated with emission reduction is a robust result. The patterns of PM changes resulting from climate change (for example the increase of PM over Spain and southern France and the decrease of PM10 over eastern Europe) are also robustly predicted even if its amplitude remains weak compared to changes associated with emission reductions.

AVERAGE ANNUAL SOLAR UV DOSE OF THE CONTINENTAL US CITIZEN

EPA Science Inventory

The average annual solar UV dose of US citizens is not known, but is required for relative risk assessments of skin cancer from UV-emitting devices. We solved this problem using a novel approach. The EPA's "National Human Activity Pattern Survey" recorded the daily ou...

14 CFR Appendix A to Part 187 - Methodology for Computation of Fees for Certification Services Performed Outside the United States

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... hours of a U.S. Federal Government employee. This result in the hourly government paid cost of an... average annual leave hours and 1,800 average annual hours available for work for computer manpower...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.44 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.24 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

40 CFR 464.14 - New source performance standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., total phenols, oil and grease, and TSS. For non-continuous dischargers, annual average mass standards.... Concentration standards and annual average mass standards shall only apply to non-continuous dischargers. (a... 40 Protection of Environment 31 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false New source performance standards. 464...

Comparison of Selected EIA-782 Data With Other Data Sources

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

This article compares annual average prices reported from the EIA-782 survey series for residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel, retail regular motor gasoline, refiner No. 2 fuel oil for resale, refiner No. 2 diesel fuel for resale, refiner regular motor gasoline for resale, and refiner kerosene-type jet fuel for resale with annual average prices reported by other sources. In terms of volume, it compares EIA-782C Prime Supplier annual volumes for motor gasoline (all grades), distillate fuel oil, kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil with annual volumes from other sources.

The effect of future reduction in aerosol emissions on climate extremes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Yang, Meilin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-11-01

This study investigates the effect of reduced aerosol emissions on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 relative to present-day conditions using the daily data output from the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 with an applied aerosol reduction and RCP8.5 with fixed 2005 aerosol emissions (RCP8.5_FixA) scenarios. The reduced aerosol emissions of RCP8.5 magnify the warming effect due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and lead to significant increases in temperature extremes, such as the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and tropical nights (TR), and precipitation extremes, such as the maximum 5-day precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, and annual total precipitation from days ˃95th percentile, in China. The projected TXx, TNn, and TR averaged over China increase by 1.2 ± 0.2 °C (4.4 ± 0.2 °C), 1.3 ± 0.2 °C (4.8 ± 0.2 °C), and 8.2 ± 1.2 (30.9 ± 1.4) days, respectively, during 2031-2050 (2081-2100) under the RCP8.5_FixA scenario, whereas the corresponding values are 1.6 ± 0.1 °C (5.3 ± 0.2 °C), 1.8 ± 0.2 °C (5.6 ± 0.2 °C), and 11.9 ± 0.9 (38.4 ± 1.0) days under the RCP8.5 scenario. Nationally averaged increases in all of those extreme precipitation indices above due to the aerosol reduction account for more than 30 % of the extreme precipitation increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the aerosol reduction leads to decreases in frost days and consecutive dry days averaged over China. There are great regional differences in changes of climate extremes caused by the aerosol reduction. When normalized by global mean surface temperature changes, aerosols have larger effects on temperature and precipitation extremes over China than GHG.

Teratogens: a public health issue – a Brazilian overview

PubMed Central

Mazzu-Nascimento, Thiago; Melo, Débora Gusmão; Morbioli, Giorgio Gianini; Carrilho, Emanuel; Vianna, Fernanda Sales Luiz; da Silva, André Anjos; Schuler-Faccini, Lavinia

2017-01-01

Abstract Congenital anomalies are already the second cause of infant mortality in Brazil, as in many other middle-income countries in Latin America. Birth defects are a result of both genetic and environmental factors, but a multifactorial etiology has been more frequently observed. Here, we address the environmental causes of birth defects – or teratogens – as a public health issue and present their mechanisms of action, categories and their respective maternal-fetal deleterious effects. We also present a survey from 2008 to 2013 of Brazilian cases involving congenital anomalies (annual average of 20,205), fetal deaths (annual average of 1,530), infant hospitalizations (annual average of 82,452), number of deaths of hospitalized infants (annual average of 2,175), and the average cost of hospitalizations (annual cost of $7,758). Moreover, we report on Brazilian cases of teratogenesis due to the recent Zika virus infection, and to the use of misoprostol, thalidomide, alcohol and illicit drugs. Special attention has been given to the Zika virus infection, now proven to be responsible for the microcephaly outbreak in Brazil, with 8,039 cases under investigation (from October 2015 to June 2016). From those cases, 1,616 were confirmed and 324 deaths occurred due to microcephaly complications or alterations on the central nervous system. Congenital anomalies impact life quality and raise costs in specialized care, justifying the classification of teratogens as a public health issue. PMID:28534929

Radiation exposure from consumer products and miscellaneous sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1977-01-01

This review of the literature indicates that there is a variety of consumer products and miscellaneous sources of radiation that result in exposure to the U.S. population. A summary of the number of people exposed to each such source, an estimate of the resulting dose equivalents to the exposed population, and an estimate of the average annual population dose equivalent are tabulated. A review of the data in this table shows that the total average annual contribution to the whole-body dose equivalent of the U.S. population from consumer products is less than 5 mrem; about 70 percent of this arisesmore » from the presence of naturally-occurring radionuclides in building materials. Some of the consumer product sources contribute exposure mainly to localized tissues or organs. Such localized estimates include: 0.5 to 1 mrem to the average annual population lung dose equivalent (generalized); 2 rem to the average annual population bronchial epithelial dose equivalent (localized); and 10 to 15 rem to the average annual population basal mucosal dose equivalent (basal mucosa of the gum). Based on these estimates, these sources may be grouped or classified as those that involve many people and the dose equivalent is relative large or those that involve many people but the dose equivalent is relatively small, or the dose equivalent is relatively large but the number of people involved is small.« less

Simulation of ground-water flow and evaluation of water-management alternatives in the upper Charles River basin, eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.; Walter, Donald A.; Eggleston, John R.; Nimiroski, Mark T.

2002-01-01

Ground water is the primary source of drinking water for towns in the upper Charles River Basin, an area of 105 square miles in eastern Massachusetts that is undergoing rapid growth. The stratified-glacial aquifers in the basin are high yield, but also are thin, discontinuous, and in close hydraulic connection with streams, ponds, and wetlands. Water withdrawals averaged 10.1 million gallons per day in 1989?98 and are likely to increase in response to rapid growth. These withdrawals deplete streamflow and lower pond levels. A study was conducted to develop tools for evaluating water-management alternatives at the regional scale in the basin. Geologic and hydrologic data were compiled and collected to characterize the ground- and surface-water systems. Numerical flow modeling techniques were applied to evaluate the effects of increased withdrawals and altered recharge on ground-water levels, pond levels, and stream base flow. Simulation-optimization methods also were applied to test their efficacy for management of multiple water-supply and water-resource needs. Steady-state and transient ground-water-flow models were developed using the numerical modeling code MODFLOW-2000. The models were calibrated to 1989?98 average annual conditions of water withdrawals, water levels, and stream base flow. Model recharge rates were varied spatially, by land use, surficial geology, and septic-tank return flow. Recharge was changed during model calibration by means of parameter-estimation techniques to better match the estimated average annual base flow; area-weighted rates averaged 22.5 inches per year for the basin. Water withdrawals accounted for about 7 percent of total simulated flows through the stream-aquifer system and were about equal in magnitude to model-calculated rates of ground-water evapotranspiration from wetlands and ponds in aquifer areas. Water withdrawals as percentages of total flow varied spatially and temporally within an average year; maximum values were 12 to 13 percent of total annual flow in some subbasins and of total monthly flow throughout the basin in summer and early fall. Water-management alternatives were evaluated by simulating hypothetical scenarios of increased withdrawals and altered recharge for average 1989?98 conditions with the flow models. Increased withdrawals to maximum State-permitted levels would result in withdrawals of about 15 million gallons per day, or about 50 percent more than current withdrawals. Model-calculated effects of these increased withdrawals included reductions in stream base flow that were greatest (as a percentage of total flow) in late summer and early fall. These reductions ranged from less than 5 percent to more than 60 percent of model-calculated 1989?98 base flow along reaches of the Charles River and major tributaries during low-flow periods. Reductions in base flow generally were comparable to upstream increases in withdrawals, but were slightly less than upstream withdrawals in areas where septic-system return flow was simulated. Increased withdrawals also increased the proportion of wastewater in the Charles River downstream of treatment facilities. The wastewater component increased downstream from a treatment facility in Milford from 80 percent of September base flow under 1989?98 conditions to 90 percent of base flow, and from 18 to 27 percent of September base flow downstream of a treatment facility in Medway. In another set of hypothetical scenarios, additional recharge equal to the transfer of water out of a typical subbasin by sewers was found to increase model-calculated base flows by about 12 percent of model-calculated base flows. Addition of recharge equal to that available from artificial recharge of residential rooftop runoff had smaller effects, augmenting simulated September base flow by about 3 percent. Simulation-optimization methods were applied to an area near Populatic Pond and the confluence of the Mill and Charles Rivers in Franklin,

Streamflow simulation studies of the Hillsborough, Alafia, and Anclote Rivers, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turner, J.F.

1979-01-01

A modified version of the Georgia Tech Watershed Model was applied for the purpose of flow simulation in three large river basins of west-central Florida. Calibrations were evaluated by comparing the following synthesized and observed data: annual hydrographs for the 1959, 1960, 1973 and 1974 water years, flood hydrographs (maximum daily discharge and flood volume), and long-term annual flood-peak discharges (1950-72). Annual hydrographs, excluding the 1973 water year, were compared using average absolute error in annual runoff and daily flows and correlation coefficients of monthly and daily flows. Correlations coefficients for simulated and observed maximum daily discharges and flood volumes used for calibrating range from 0.91 to 0.98 and average standard errors of estimate range from 18 to 45 percent. Correlation coefficients for simulated and observed annual flood-peak discharges range from 0.60 to 0.74 and average standard errors of estimate range from 33 to 44 percent. (Woodard-USGS)

Municipal landfill leachate characteristics and feasibility of retrofitting existing treatment systems with deammonification - A full scale survey.

PubMed

Mohammad-Pajooh, Ehsan; Weichgrebe, Dirk; Cuff, Graham

2017-02-01

Leachate characteristics, applied technologies and energy demand for leachate treatment were investigated through survey in different states of Germany. Based on statistical analysis of leachate quality data from 2010 to 2015, almost half of the contaminants in raw leachate satisfy direct discharge limits. Decrease in leachate pollution index of current landfills is mainly related to reduction in concentrations of certain heavy metals (Pb, Zn, Cd, Hg) and organics (biological oxygen demand (BOD 5 ), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and adsorbable organic halogen (AOX)). However, contaminants of concern remain COD, ammonium-nitrogen (NH 4 N) and BOD 5 with average concentrations in leachate of about 1850, 640, and 120 mg/L respectively. Concentrations of COD and NH 4 N vary seasonally, mainly due to temperature changes; concentrations during the first quarter of the year are mostly below the annual average value. Electrical conductivity (EC) of leachate may be used as a time and cost saving alternative to monitor sudden changes in concentration of these two parameters, due to high correlations of around 0.8 with both COD and NH 4 N values which are possibly due to low heavy metal concentrations in leachate. The decreased concentrations of heavy metals and BOD 5 favor the retrofitting of an existing biological reactor (nitrification/denitrification) with the deammonification process and post denitrification, as this lowers average annual operational cost (in terms of energy and external carbon source) and CO 2 emission by €25,850 and 15,855 kg CO 2,eq respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mass balance, meteorology, area altitude distribution, glacier-surface altitude, ice motion, terminus position, and runoff at Gulkana Glacier, Alaska, 1996 balance year

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.

2003-01-01

The 1996 measured winter snow, maximum winter snow, net, and annual balances in the Gulkana Glacier Basin were evaluated on the basis of meteorological, hydrological, and glaciological data. Averaged over the glacier, the measured winter snow balance was 0.87 meter on April 18, 1996, 1.1 standard deviation below the long-term average; the maximum winter snow balance, 1.06 meters, was reached on May 28, 1996; and the net balance (from August 30, 1995, to August 24, 1996) was -0.53 meter, 0.53 standard deviation below the long-term average. The annual balance (October 1, 1995, to September 30, 1996) was -0.37 meter. Area-averaged balances were reported using both the 1967 and 1993 area altitude distributions (the numbers previously given in this abstract use the 1993 area altitude distribution). Net balance was about 25 percent less negative using the 1993 area altitude distribution than the 1967 distribution. Annual average air temperature was 0.9 degree Celsius warmer than that recorded with the analog sensor used since 1966. Total precipitation catch for the year was 0.78 meter, 0.8 standard deviations below normal. The annual average wind speed was 3.5 meters per second in the first year of measuring wind speed. Annual runoff averaged 1.50 meters over the basin, 1.0 standard deviation below the long-term average. Glacier-surface altitude and ice-motion changes measured at three index sites document seasonal ice-speed and glacier-thickness changes. Both showed a continuation of a slowing and thinning trend present in the 1990s. The glacier terminus and lower ablation area were defined for 1996 with a handheld Global Positioning System survey of 126 locations spread out over about 4 kilometers on the lower glacier margin. From 1949 to 1996, the terminus retreated about 1,650 meters for an average retreat rate of 35 meters per year.

A Multifaceted Intervention to Improve the Quality of Care of Children in District Hospitals in Kenya: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Barasa, Edwine W.; Ayieko, Philip; Cleary, Susan; English, Mike

2012-01-01

Background To improve care for children in district hospitals in Kenya, a multifaceted approach employing guidelines, training, supervision, feedback, and facilitation was developed, for brevity called the Emergency Triage and Treatment Plus (ETAT+) strategy. We assessed the cost effectiveness of the ETAT+ strategy, in Kenyan hospitals. Further, we estimate the costs of scaling up the intervention to Kenya nationally and potential cost effectiveness at scale. Methods and Findings Our cost-effectiveness analysis from the provider's perspective used data from a previously reported cluster randomized trial comparing the full ETAT+ strategy (n = 4 hospitals) with a partial intervention (n = 4 hospitals). Effectiveness was measured using 14 process measures that capture improvements in quality of care; their average was used as a summary measure of quality. Economic costs of the development and implementation of the intervention were determined (2009 US$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were defined as the incremental cost per percentage improvement in (average) quality of care. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess uncertainty. The cost per child admission was US$50.74 (95% CI 49.26–67.06) in intervention hospitals compared to US$31.1 (95% CI 30.67–47.18) in control hospitals. Each percentage improvement in average quality of care cost an additional US$0.79 (95% CI 0.19–2.31) per admitted child. The estimated annual cost of nationally scaling up the full intervention was US$3.6 million, approximately 0.6% of the annual child health budget in Kenya. A “what-if” analysis assuming conservative reductions in mortality suggests the incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted by scaling up would vary between US$39.8 and US$398.3. Conclusion Improving quality of care at scale nationally with the full ETAT+ strategy may be affordable for low income countries such as Kenya. Resultant plausible reductions in hospital mortality suggest the intervention could be cost-effective when compared to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of other priority child health interventions. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22719233

A multifaceted intervention to improve the quality of care of children in district hospitals in Kenya: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Barasa, Edwine W; Ayieko, Philip; Cleary, Susan; English, Mike

2012-01-01

To improve care for children in district hospitals in Kenya, a multifaceted approach employing guidelines, training, supervision, feedback, and facilitation was developed, for brevity called the Emergency Triage and Treatment Plus (ETAT+) strategy. We assessed the cost effectiveness of the ETAT+ strategy, in Kenyan hospitals. Further, we estimate the costs of scaling up the intervention to Kenya nationally and potential cost effectiveness at scale. Our cost-effectiveness analysis from the provider's perspective used data from a previously reported cluster randomized trial comparing the full ETAT+ strategy (n = 4 hospitals) with a partial intervention (n = 4 hospitals). Effectiveness was measured using 14 process measures that capture improvements in quality of care; their average was used as a summary measure of quality. Economic costs of the development and implementation of the intervention were determined (2009 US$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were defined as the incremental cost per percentage improvement in (average) quality of care. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess uncertainty. The cost per child admission was US$50.74 (95% CI 49.26-67.06) in intervention hospitals compared to US$31.1 (95% CI 30.67-47.18) in control hospitals. Each percentage improvement in average quality of care cost an additional US$0.79 (95% CI 0.19-2.31) per admitted child. The estimated annual cost of nationally scaling up the full intervention was US$3.6 million, approximately 0.6% of the annual child health budget in Kenya. A "what-if" analysis assuming conservative reductions in mortality suggests the incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted by scaling up would vary between US$39.8 and US$398.3. Improving quality of care at scale nationally with the full ETAT+ strategy may be affordable for low income countries such as Kenya. Resultant plausible reductions in hospital mortality suggest the intervention could be cost-effective when compared to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of other priority child health interventions.

Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Woo, Jung-Hun

2010-02-01

Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements and should be considered in developing control strategies for achieving air quality targets in the future.

Australian vaccine preventable disease epidemiological review series: measles 2000-2011.

PubMed

Chiew, May; Dey, Aditi; Martin, Nicolee; Wang, Han; Davis, Stephanie; McIntyre, Peter B

2015-03-31

Since the introduction of measles vaccine to the vaccination schedule, the burden of measles has substantially fallen in Australia. Despite this, a number of recent measles outbreaks have occurred. The aim of this study was to examine the burden of measles in Australia using notification, hospitalisation and mortality data with the objectives of setting a baseline for comparison prior to the introduction of the combined measles-mumps-rubella-varicella vaccine. Data were obtained from the Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, the National Hospital Morbidity Database and the National Mortality Database to obtain notification, hospitalisation and death data, respectively from 2000 to 2011. Rates were calculated and compared over time by age group and jurisdiction. Since 1993, measles notifications have fallen considerably in Australia. However, between 2000 and 2011, measles notification rates and hospitalisation rates fluctuated. Between 2000 and 2011, there were 990 measles notifications in Australia. The average annual notification rate was 0.4 per 100,000 population. Children aged 0-4 years were the most susceptible group, particularly infants less than 1 year of age (average annual rate, 1.6 per 100,000 population). High incidence was also observed in adolescents (average annual rate, 0.7 per 100,000 population) and young adults (average annual rate, 0.8 per 100,000 population). Jurisdictional variation occurred with differing patterns of notifications and hospitalisations. Although a marked reduction in measles notifications and hospitalisations has occurred in the past decade, susceptible individuals should be vaccinated to prevent outbreaks and to maintain a low incidence of measles and Australia's elimination status. This work is copyright. You may download, display, print and reproduce the whole or part of this work in unaltered form for your own personal use or, if you are part of an organisation, for internal use within your organisation, but only if you or your organisation do not use the reproduction for any commercial purpose and retain this copyright notice and all disclaimer notices as part of that reproduction. Apart from rights to use as permitted by the Copyright Act 1968 or allowed by this copyright notice, all other rights are reserved and you are not allowed to reproduce the whole or any part of this work in any way (electronic or otherwise) without first being given the specific written permission from the Commonwealth to do so. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights are to be sent to the Online, Services and External Relations Branch, Department of Health, GPO Box 9848, Canberra ACT 2601, or by email to copyright@health.gov.au.

40 CFR 141.132 - Monitoring requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... H system serving at least 10,000 persons which has a source water annual average TOC level, before.... Subpart H system serving from 500 to 9,999 persons which has a source water annual average TOC level... monitoring. (iii) Monitoring requirements for source water TOC. In order to qualify for reduced monitoring...

26 CFR 1.401(l)-1 - Permitted disparity in employer-provided contributions or benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... with respect to an employee's average annual compensation at or below the integration level (expressed... or below the integration level (expressed as a percentage of such plan year compensation). (5... plan with respect to an employee's average annual compensation above the integration level (expressed...

50 CFR 218.181 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10...); (vii) Spinner dolphin (S. longirostris)—115 (an average of 23 annually); (viii) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (ix) Short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus...

50 CFR 218.181 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10...); (vii) Spinner dolphin (S. longirostris)—115 (an average of 23 annually); (viii) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (ix) Short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus...

50 CFR 218.181 - Permissible methods of taking.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... and the indicated number of times: (1) Level B Harassment: (i) Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)—10...); (vii) Spinner dolphin (S. longirostris)—115 (an average of 23 annually); (viii) Melon-headed whale (Peponocephala electra)—10 (an average of 2 annually); (ix) Short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus...

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Idle Reduction

Science.gov Websites

Cities Annual Petroleum Savings Clean Cities Annual Petroleum Savings Incentive and Law Additions by Fuel /Technology Type Incentive and Law Additions by Fuel/Technology Type Incentive Additions by Policy Type Incentive Additions by Policy Type More Idle Reduction Data | All Maps & Data Case Studies Massachusetts

Estimating the potential for industrial waste heat reutilization in urban district energy systems: method development and implementation in two Chinese provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Kangkang; Fang, Andrew; Yu, Huajun; Li, Yang; Shi, Lei; Wang, Yangjun; Wang, Shuxiao; Ramaswami, Anu

2017-12-01

Utilizing low-grade waste heat from industries to heat and cool homes and businesses through fourth generation district energy systems (DES) is a novel strategy to reduce energy use. This paper develops a generalizable methodology to estimate the energy saving potential for heating/cooling in 20 cities in two Chinese provinces, representing cold winter and hot summer regions respectively. We also conduct a life-cycle analysis of the new infrastructure required for energy exchange in DES. Results show that heating and cooling energy use reduction from this waste heat exchange strategy varies widely based on the mix of industrial, residential and commercial activities, and climate conditions in cities. Low-grade heat is found to be the dominant component of waste heat released by industries, which can be reused for both district heating and cooling in fourth generation DES, yielding energy use reductions from 12%-91% (average of 58%) for heating and 24%-100% (average of 73%) for cooling energy use in the different cities based on annual exchange potential. Incorporating seasonality and multiple energy exchange pathways resulted in energy savings reductions from 0%-87%. The life-cycle impact of added infrastructure was small (<3% for heating) and 1.9% ~ 6.5% (cooling) of the carbon emissions from fuel use in current heating or cooling systems, indicating net carbon savings. This generalizable approach to delineate waste heat potential can help determine suitable cities for the widespread application of industrial waste heat re-utilization.

The full annual carbon balance of Eurasian boreal forests is highly sensitive to precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Öquist, Mats; Bishop, Kevin; Grelle, Achim; Klemedtsson, Leif; Köhler, Stephan; Laudon, Hjalmar; Lindroth, Anders; Ottosson Löfvenius, Mikaell; Wallin, Marcus; Nilsson, Mats

2013-04-01

Boreal forest biomes are identified as one of the major sinks for anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 and are also predicted to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Recent advances in understanding the carbon balance of these biomes stems mainly from eddy-covariance measurements of the net ecosystem exchange (NEE). However, NEE includes only the vertical CO2 exchange driven by photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration. A full net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) also requires inclusion of lateral carbon export (LCE) through catchment discharge. Currently LCE is often regarded as negligible for the NECB of boreal forest ecosystems of the northern hemisphere, commonly corresponding to ~5% of annual NEE. Here we use long term (13 year) data showing that annual LCE and NEE are strongly correlated (p=0.003); years with low C sequestration by the forest coincide with years when lateral C loss is high. The fraction of NEE lost annually through LCE varied markedly from <3% to ca. 25%. Deviation in annual precipitation from the 28-year average (1980-2008) explained 90% of the variation observed in the fraction of C lost annually by LCE. The relationship suggests that an increase in annual precipitation of 10-20% in the boreal region would approximately double the fraction of NEE lost annually from the terrestrial system to surface waters. The correlation between NEE and LCE arises because the annual precipitation is correlated with both NEE (p<0.004) and LCE (p<0.001). Both these strong correlations contribute to an overall correlation between annual NECB and precipitation. The likely mechanism behind decreased NEE in response to increasing precipitation is a reduction in incoming solar radiation caused by clouds. The dual effect of precipitation implies that both the observed and the predicted increases in annual precipitation at high latitudes may reduce NECB in boreal forest ecosystems. Based on regional scaling of hydrological discharge and observed spatio-temporal variations in forest NEE we conclude that our finding is relevant for large areas of the boreal Eurasian landscape.

Formation, distribution and variability in snow cover on the Asian territory of the USSR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pupkov, V. N.

1985-01-01

A description is given of maps compiled for annual and average multiple-year water reserves. The annual and average multiple-year maximum snow cover height for winter, extreme values of maximum snow reserves, and the average height and snow reserves at the end of each decade are shown. These maps were made for the entire Asian territory of the USSR, excluding Central Asia, Kamchatka Peninsula, and the Sakhalin Islands.

Annual motor vehicle travel distance and incident obesity: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Núñez-Córdoba, Jorge M; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Pollack, Keshia M; Seguí-Gómez, María; Beunza, Juan J; Sayón-Orea, Carmen; Martínez-González, Miguel A

2013-03-01

Obesity has become a major health and economic problem with increasing prevalence. Unfortunately, no country can act as public health exemplar for reduction of obesity. The finding of associations between sedentary behaviors and obesity, independent of the level of physical activity, may offer new insights to prevent this burdensome problem. To evaluate prospectively the relationship between annual distance traveled by motor vehicles and subsequent incidence of overweight or obesity in a Mediterranean cohort. Data from a prospective cohort study (Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra Project, 1999-2011) with a permanently open recruitment were analyzed. Self-administered questionnaires are mailed every 2 years, collecting information on dietary habits, lifestyle, risk factors, and medical conditions. Annual kilometers traveled by motor vehicles were grouped into three categories (≤10,000; >10,000 to ≤20,000; and >20,000). Multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to assess the risk of overweight or obesity across categories of distance traveled annually. In all, 9160 participants (58% female, average age=37 years) were followed up for a median of 6.4 years. During 39,175 person-years of follow-up, 1044 (15.3%) normal-weight participants at baseline became overweight or obese. Among participants who did not change their category of annual kilometers traveled during follow-up, an increased risk of overweight or obesity in the highest category of annual kilometers traveled was observed, compared with the lowest one (hazard ratio=1.4, 95% CI=1.1, 1.7). This study suggests a potential pernicious effect of the use of motor vehicles on the risk of overweight or obesity. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE PAGES

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.; ...

2017-04-19

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sargent, S.A.

Apple pomace or presscake, was evaluated for suitability as a boiler feedstock for Michigan firms processing apple juice. Based upon the physical and chemical characteristics of pomace, handling/direct combustion systems were selected to conform with operating parameters typical of the industry. Fresh pomace flow rates of 29,030 and 88,998 kg/day (64,000 and 194,000 lb/day) were considered as representative of small and large processors, respectively, and the material was assumed to be dried to 15% moisture content (wet basis) prior to storage and combustion. Boilers utilizing pile-burning, fluidized-bed-combustion, and suspension-firing technologies were sized for each flow rate, resulting in energy productionmore » of 2930 and 8790 kW (10 and 30 million Btu/h), respectively. A life-cycle cost analysis was performed giving Average Annual Costs for the three handling/combustion system combinations (based on the Uniform Capital Recovery factor). An investment loan at 16% interest with a 5-year payback period was assumed. The break-even period for annual costs was calculated by anticipated savings incurred through reduction of fossil-fuel costs during a 5-month processing season. Large processors, producing more than 88,998 kg pomace/day, could economically convert to a suspension-fired system substituting for fuel oil, with break-even occurring after 4 months of operation of pomace per year. Small processors, producing less than 29,030 kg/day, could not currently convert to pomace combustion systems given these economic circumstances. A doubling of electrical-utility costs and changes in interest rates from 10 to 20% per year had only slight effects on the recovery of Average Annual Costs. Increases in fossil-fuel prices and the necessity to pay for pomace disposal reduced the cost-recovery period for all systems, making some systems feasible for small processors. 39 references, 13 figures, 10 tables.« less

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2017-01-01

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of −17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license. PMID:28423049

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

Potential contributions of mature prairie and turfgrass to phosphorus in urban runoff.

PubMed

Steinke, K; Kussow, W R; Stier, J C

2013-07-01

Urban vegetative plantings are considered desirable to mitigate and filter stormwater runoff and nonpoint-source pollution. Phosphorus fertilization of turfgrass may enhance P in urban runoff; however, the amount of P from nonfertilized, native vegetation that could potentially replace some turf is not known. This study was conducted to measure the relative contributions of nonfertilized, native prairie vegetation and fertilized turfgrass to runoff water and P loads. Six replicates of side-by-side mature urban prairie and turfgrass were monitored for mean annual runoff volumes and P loads, biomass production, vegetative nutrient composition, and changes in soil moisture. Vegetation type did not significantly affect seasonal or annual runoff volumes or P loads. The mean annual total P loads of 0.46 kg ha for prairie and 0.28 kg ha for turfgrass were significant and comparable to those reported by other researchers when studied separately. Total P concentrations in runoff water from prairie and turf vegetation were above USEPA limits, averaging 1.86 and 1.63 mg L, respectively, over 2 yr. Averaged across 2 yr, 78% of runoff P was collected when the soil was frozen. Biomass P reductions over the period of November to April were strongly related to quantities of runoff total P from frozen soil ( = 0.874). Phosphorus losses from urban areas appeared to be primarily correlated with runoff depth, not vegetation type, because correlation coefficients revealed 86 and 45% of the Year 1 and Year 2 total P loads were directly accounted for by runoff volumes. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Estimated impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in India: effects of geographic and economic disparities.

PubMed

Rheingans, Richard; Anderson, John D; Anderson, Benjamin; Chakraborty, Poulomy; Atherly, Deborah; Pindolia, Deepa

2014-08-11

India accounts for 23% of global rotavirus mortality in under-five children, with more than 100,000 deaths from rotavirus annually. Introduction of a vaccine in India is considered to be the most effective intervention for preventing rotavirus mortality. Recent research suggests that there is considerable variation in rotavirus mortality burden across regional, gender and socio-economic subpopulations within India. In addition, there is potential variability in who would likely receive rotavirus vaccine if introduced. We use available household data to estimate heterogeneity in rotavirus mortality risk, vaccination benefits, and cost-effectiveness across geographic and socio-economic groups within India. We account for heterogeneity by modeling estimated three-dose routine vaccinations as a proxy for a generalized rotavirus vaccine, and mortality for subpopulations of children aggregated by region and state, socio-economic status and sex, separately. Results are presented for six geographic regions and for Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, three high mortality states accounting for 56% of national mortality estimates. Impact estimates accounting for disparities predict rotavirus vaccine introduction will prevent 35,000 deaths at an average cost of $118/DALY averted (7292 INR/DALY averted). Rotavirus vaccines are most cost-effective for the poor living in high mortality regions and states. Reductions in geographic and socio-economic disparities based on regional estimates could prevent an additional 9400 deaths annually, while reductions in socio-economic disparities in the three highest morality states alone could prevent an additional 10,600 deaths annually. Understanding the impact of heterogeneity can help improve strategies to maximize the benefits of rotavirus vaccination introduction, leading to fewer lives lost as a result of rotavirus disease. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Biophysical controls on carbon and water vapor fluxes across a grassland climatic gradient in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagle, Pradeep; Xiao, Xiangming; Scott, Russell L.

Understanding of the underlying causes of spatial variation in exchange of carbon and water vapor fluxes between grasslands and the atmosphere is crucial for accurate estimates of regional and global carbon and water budgets, and for predicting the impact of climate change on biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks of grasslands. We used ground-based eddy flux and meteorological data, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from 12 grasslands across the United States to examine the spatial variability in carbon and water vapor fluxes and to evaluate the biophysical controls on the spatial patterns of fluxes. Precipitation was strongly associatedmore » with spatial and temporal variability in carbon and water vapor fluxes and vegetation productivity. Grasslands with annual average precipitation <600 mm generally had neutral annual carbon balance or emitted small amount of carbon to the atmosphere. Despite strong coupling between gross primary production (GPP)and evapotranspiration (ET) across study sites, GPP showed larger spatial variation than ET, and EVI had a greater effect on GPP than on ET. Consequently, large spatial variation in ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE = annual GPP/ET; varying from 0.67 ± 0.55 to 2.52 ± 0.52 g C mm⁻¹ET) was observed. Greater reduction in GPP than ET at high air temperature and vapor pressure deficit caused a reduction in EWUE in dry years, indicating a response which is opposite than what has been reported for forests. Our results show that spatial and temporal variations in ecosystem carbon uptake, ET, and water use efficiency of grasslands were strongly associated with canopy greenness and coverage, as indicated by EVI.« less

Lung Function before and after a Large Chlorine Gas Release in Graniteville, South Carolina

PubMed Central

Karmaus, Wilfried J. J.; Mohr, Lawrence C.; Cai, Bo; Balte, Pallavi; Gibson, James J.; Ownby, Dennis; Lawson, Andrew B.; Vena, John E.; Svendsen, Erik R.

2016-01-01

Rationale: On January 6, 2005 a train derailment led to an estimated 54,915-kg release of chlorine at a local textile mill in Graniteville, South Carolina. Objectives: We used the employee health spirometry records of the textile to identify enduring effects of chlorine gas exposure resulting from the incident on the lung function of workers employed at the textile mill. Methods: Spirometry records from 1,807 mill workers (7,332 observations) were used from 4 years before and 18 months after the disaster. Longitudinal analysis using marginal regression models produced annual population mean estimates for FEV1, FVC, and FEV1/FVC ratio. Covariate adjustment was made for sex, age, smoking, height, season tested, technician, obesity, season × year interactions, and smoker × year interactions. The increased prevalence of mill workers having accelerated FEV1 decline was also evaluated after the chlorine spill. Measurements and Main Results: In the year of the accident, we observed a significant reduction in mean FEV1 (–4.2% predicted; P = 0.019) when compared with the year before the incident. In the second year, partial recovery in the mean FVC % predicted level was seen, but the cohort’s average FEV1/FVC ratio continued to decrease over time. Severe annual FEV1 decline was most prevalent in the year of the accident, and independent of mill worker smoking status. Conclusions: The Graniteville mill worker cohort revealed significant reductions in lung function immediately after the chlorine incident. Improvement was seen in the second year; but the proportion of mill workers experiencing accelerated FEV1 annual decline significantly increased in the 18 months after the chlorine incident. PMID:26695511

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan

2017-03-01

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by midcentury and -35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at midcentury and -55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.