Streamflow Impacts of Biofuel Policy-Driven Landscape Change

PubMed Central

Khanal, Sami; Anex, Robert P.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Herzmann, Daryl E.

2014-01-01

Likely changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979–2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity. PMID:25289698

Simulation of ground-water flow and evaluation of water-management alternatives in the Assabet River Basin, Eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.

2004-01-01

Water-supply withdrawals and wastewater disposal in the Assabet River Basin in eastern Massachusetts alter the flow and water quality in the basin. Wastewater discharges and stream-flow depletion from ground-water withdrawals adversely affect water quality in the Assabet River, especially during low-flow months (late summer) and in headwater areas. Streamflow depletion also contributes to loss of aquatic habitat in tributaries to the river. In 19972001, water-supply withdrawals averaged 9.9 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Wastewater discharges to the Assabet River averaged 11 Mgal/d and included about 5.4 Mgal/d that originated from sources outside of the basin. The effects of current (2004) and future withdrawals and discharges on water resources in the basin were investigated in this study. Steady-state and transient ground-water-flow models were developed, by using MODFLOW-2000, to simulate flow in the surficial glacial deposits and underlying crystalline bedrock in the basin. The transient model simulated the average annual cycle at dynamic equilibrium in monthly intervals. The models were calibrated to 19972001 conditions of water withdrawals, wastewater discharges, water levels, and nonstorm streamflow (base flow plus wastewater discharges). Total flow through the simulated hydrologic system averaged 195 Mgal/d annually. Recharge from precipitation and ground-water discharge to streams were the dominant inflow and outflow, respectively. Evapotranspiration of ground water from wetlands and non-wetland areas also were important losses from the hydrologic system. Water-supply withdrawals and infiltration to sewers averaged 5 and 1.3 percent, respectively, of total annual out-flows and were larger components (12 percent in September) of the hydrologic system during low-flow months. Water budgets for individual tributary and main stem subbasins identified areas, such as the Fort Meadow Brook and the Assabet Main Stem Upper subbasins, where flows resulting from anthropo-genic activities were relatively large percentages, compared to other subbasins, (more than 20 percent in September) of total out-flows. Wastewater flows in the Assabet River accounted for 55, 32, and 20 percent of total nonstorm streamflow (base flow plus wastewater discharge) out of the Assabet Main Stem Upper, Middle, and Lower subbasins, respectively, in an average September. The ground-water-flow models were used to evaluate water-management alternatives by simulating hypothetical scenarios of altered withdrawals and discharges. A scenario that included no water management quantified nonstorm stream-flows that would result without withdrawals, discharges, septic-system return flow, or consumptive use. Tributary flows in this scenario increased in most subbasins by 2 to 44 percent relative to 19972001 conditions. The increases resulted mostly from variable combinations of decreased withdrawals and decreased infiltration to sewers. Average annual nonstorm streamflow in the Assabet River decreased slightly in this scenario, by 2 to 3 percent annually, because gains in ground-water discharge were offset by the elimination of wastewater discharges. A second scenario quantified the effects of increasing withdrawals and discharges to currently permitted levels. In this simulation, average annual tributary flows decreased in most subbasins, by less than 1 to 10 percent relative to 19972001 conditions. In the Assabet River, flows increased slightly, 1 to 5 percent annually, and the percentage of wastewater in the river increased to 69, 42, and 27 percent of total nonstorm streamflow out of the Assabet Main Stem Upper, Middle, and Lower subbasins, respectively, in an average September. A third set of scenarios quantified the effects of ground-water discharge of wastewater at four hypothetical sites, while maintaining 19972000 wastewater discharges to the Assabet River. Wastewater, discharged at a constant rate that varied among sites from 0.3 to 1

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands

PubMed Central

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E.; Fox, Garey A.

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002–2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands. PMID:28792541

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands.

PubMed

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E; Fox, Garey A

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002-2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands.

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft3/s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow.Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells.Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts.Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Lorenz, David J

2016-01-01

Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

Trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in stream morphology in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1939-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2000-01-01

The Fountain Creek watershed, located in and along the eastern slope of the Front Range section of the southern Rocky Mountains, drains approximately 930 square miles of parts of Teller, El Paso, and Pueblo Counties in eastern Colorado. Streamflow in the watershed is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff and storm runoff during the summer monsoon season. Flooding during the 1990?s has resulted in increased streambank erosion. Property loss and damage associated with flooding and bank erosion has cost area residents, businesses, utilities, municipalities, and State and Federal agencies millions of dollars. Precipitation (4 stations) and streamflow (6 stations) data, aerial photographs, and channel reconnaissance were used to evaluate trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in channel morphology. Trends were evaluated for pre-1977, post-1976, and period-of-record time periods. Analysis revealed the lack of trend in total annual and seasonal precipitation during the pre-1977 time period. In general, the analysis also revealed the lack of trend in seasonal precipitation for all except the spring season during the post-1976 time period. Trend analysis revealed a significant upward trend in long-term (period of record) total annual and spring precipitation data, apparently due to a change in total annual precipitation throughout the Fountain Creek watershed. During the pre-1977 time period, precipitation was generally below average; during the post- 1976 time period, total annual precipitation was generally above average. During the post- 1976 time period, an upward trend in total annual and spring precipitation was indicated at two stations. Because two of four stations evaluated had upward trends for the post-1976 period and storms that produce the most precipitation are isolated convection storms, it is plausible that other parts of the watershed had upward precipitation trends that could affect trends in streamflow. Also, because of the isolated nature of convection storms that hit some areas of the watershed and not others, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions on relations between streamflow and precipitation. Trends in annual instantaneous peak streamflow, 70th percentile, 90th percentile, maximum daily-mean streamflow (100th percentile), 7-, 14-, and 30-day high daily-mean stream- flow duration, minimum daily-mean streamflow (0th percentile), 10th percentile, 30th percentile, and 7-, 14-, 30-day low daily-mean streamflow duration were evaluated. In general, instantaneous peak streamflow has not changed significantly at most of the stations evaluated. Trend analysis revealed the lack of a significant upward trend in streamflow at all stations for the pre-1977 time period. Trend tests indicated a significant upward trend in high and low daily-mean streamflow statistics for the post-1976 period. Upward trends in high daily-mean streamflow statistics may be an indication that changes in land use within the watershed have increased the rate and magnitude of runoff. Upward trends in low daily-mean 2 Trends in Precipitation and Streamflow and Changes in Stream Morphology in the Fountain Creek Watershed, Colorado, 1939-99 streamflow statistics may be related to changes in water use and management. An analysis of the relation between streamflow and precipitation indicated that changes in water management have had a marked effect on streamflow. Observable change in channel morphology and changes in distribution and density of vegetation varied with magnitude, duration, and frequency of large streamflow events, and increases in the magnitude and duration of low streamflows. Although more subtle, low stream- flows were an important component of day-to-day channel erosion. Substantial changes in channel morphology were most often associated with infrequent large or catastrophic streamflow events that erode streambed and banks, alter stream course, and deposit large amounts of sediment in the flood plain.

Preliminary flood-duration frequency estimates using naturalized streamflow records for the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lind, Greg D.; Stonewall, Adam J.

2018-02-13

In this study, “naturalized” daily streamflow records, created by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation, were used to compute 1-, 3-, 7-, 10-, 15-, 30-, and 60-day annual maximum streamflow durations, which are running averages of daily streamflow for the number of days in each duration. Once the annual maximum durations were computed, the floodduration frequencies could be estimated. The estimated flood-duration frequencies correspond to the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent probabilities of their occurring or being exceeded each year. For this report, the focus was on the Willamette River Basin in Oregon, which is a subbasin of the Columbia River Basin. This study is part of a larger one encompassing the entire Columbia Basin.

Historical Changes in Precipitation and Streamflow in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin, 1915-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Aichele, Stephen S.

2007-01-01

The total amount of water in the Great Lakes Basin is important in the long-term allocation of water to human use and to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. The water available during low-flow periods is particularly important because the short-term demands for the water can exceed the supply. Precipitation increased over the last 90 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Total annual precipitation increased by 4.5 inches from 1915 to 2004 (based on the average of 34 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations), 3.5 inches from 1935 to 2004 (average of 34 stations), and 4.2 inches from 1955 to 2004 (average of 37 stations). Variability in precipitation from year to year was large, but there were numerous years with relatively low precipitation in the 1930s and 1960s and many years with relatively high precipitation after about 1970. Annual runoff increased over the last 50 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Mean annual runoff increased by 2.6 inches, based on the average of 43 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations from 1955 to 2004 on streams that were relatively free of human influences. Variability in runoff from year to year was large, but on average runoff was relatively low from 1955 to about 1970 and relatively high from about 1970 to 1995. Runoff increased at all stations in the basin except in and near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where relatively small runoff decreases occurred. Changes in annual runoff for the 16 stations with data from 1935 to 2004 were similar to the changes from 1955 to 2004. The mean annual 7-day low runoff (the lowest annual average of 7 consecutive days of runoff) increased from 1955 to 2004 by 0.048 cubic feet per second per square mile based on the average of 27 stations. Runoff in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin from 1955 to 2004 increased for all months except April. November through January and July precipitation and runoff increased by similar amounts. There were differences between precipitation and runoff changes for February, March, and April, which were likely due to lower ratios of snowfall to rain and earlier snowmelt runoff in recent years. Increases in precipitation were larger than increases in runoff for May, June, August, September, and October. Some of this difference could be due to the different locations of the precipitation and streamflow stations in the basin. Part of the difference may be explained by changes in evapotranspiration. Some of the few highly urbanized and highly regulated stations analyzed in this report had larger increases in annual 7-day low-runoff from 1955 to 2004 than any of the stations in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin that are on streams relatively free of human influences. This demonstrates the human influence over time on very low streamflows. Changes-even over periods as long as 90 years-can be part of longer cycles. Previous studies of Great Lakes Basin precipitation and St. Lawrence River streamflow, using data from the mid-1800s to the late-1900s, showed low precipitation and streamflow in the late 1800s and early 1900s relative to earlier and later periods.

Analysis of trends of water quality and streamflow in the Blackstone, Branch, Pawtuxet, and Pawcatuck Rivers, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, 1979 to 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savoie, Jennifer G.; Mullaney, John R.; Bent, Gardner C.

2017-02-21

Trends in long-term water-quality and streamflow data from six water-quality-monitoring stations within three major river basins in Massachusetts and Rhode Island that flow into Narragansett Bay and Little Narragansett Bay were evaluated for water years 1979–2015. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, the Rhode Island Water Resources Board, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, water-quality and streamflow data were evaluated with a Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season smoothing method, which removes the effects of year-to-year variation in water-quality conditions due to variations in streamflow (discharge). Trends in annual mean, annual median, annual maximum, and annual 7-day minimum flows at four continuous streamgages were evaluated by using a time-series smoothing method for water years 1979–2015.Water quality at all monitoring stations changed over the study period. Decreasing trends in flow-normalized nutrient concentrations and loads were observed during the period at most monitoring stations for total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus. Average flow-normalized loads for water years 1979–2015 decreased in the Blackstone River by up to 46 percent in total nitrogen, 17 percent in nitrite plus nitrate, and 69 percent in total phosphorus. The other rivers also had decreasing flow-normalized trends in nutrient concentrations and loads, except for the Pawtuxet River, which had an increasing trend in nitrite plus nitrate. Increasing trends in flow-normalized chloride concentrations and loads were observed during the study period at all of the rivers, with increases of more than 200 percent in the Blackstone River.Small increasing trends in annual mean daily streamflow were observed in 3 of the 4 rivers, with increases of 1.2 to 11 percent; however, the trends were not significant. All 4 rivers had decreases in streamflow for the annual 7-day minimums, but only 3 of the 4 rivers had decreases that were significant (34 to 54 percent). The Branch River had decreasing annual mean daily streamflow (7.5 percent) and the largest decrease in the annual 7-day minimum streamflow. The Blackstone and Pawtuxet Rivers had the largest increases in annual maximum daily flows but had decreases in the annual 7-day minimum flows.

Characterization of suspended solids and total phosphorus loadings from small watersheds in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Danz, Mari E.; Corsi, Steven R.; Graczyk, David J.; Bannerman, Roger T.

2010-01-01

Knowledge of the daily, monthly, and yearly distribution of contaminant loadings and streamflow can be critical for the successful implementation and evaluation of water-quality management practices. Loading data for solids (suspended sediment and total suspended solids) and total phosphorus and streamflow data for 23 watersheds were summarized for four ecoregions of Wisconsin: the Driftless Area Ecoregion, the Northern Lakes and Forests Ecoregion, the North Central Hardwoods Ecoregion, and the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains Ecoregion. The Northern Lakes and Forests and the North Central Hardwoods Ecoregions were combined into one region for analysis due to a lack of sufficient data in each region. Urban watersheds, all located in the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains, were analyzed separately from rural watersheds as the Rural Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region and the Urban Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region. Results provide information on the distribution of loadings and streamflow between base flow and stormflow, the timing of loadings and streamflow throughout the year, and information regarding the number of days in which the majority of the annual loading is transported. The average contribution to annual solids loading from stormflow periods for the Driftless Area Ecoregion was 84 percent, the Northern Lakes and Forests/North Central Hardwoods region was 71 percent, the Rural Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region was 70 percent, and the Urban Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains region was 90 percent. The average contributions to annual total phosphorus loading from stormflow periods were 72, 49, 61, and 76 percent for each of the respective regions. The average contributions to annual streamflow from stormflow periods are 20, 23, 31, and 50 percent for each of the respective regions. In all regions, the most substantial loading contributions for solids were in the late winter (February through March), spring (April through May), and early summer (June through July), with fall (October through November) and early winter (December through January) contributing the smallest loadings. The Northern Lakes and Forests/North Central Hardwoods region had some substantial loading in September. There was a similar pattern for total phosphorus loading in all regions, with the pattern somewhat less pronounced in urban watersheds. As with the loading results, average monthly streamflow values were greatest in late winter, spring, and early summer, with the lowest values typically in fall and early winter. Loading contributions were greater from stormflow than from base flow in all instances, except total phosphorus in the Northern Lakes and Forests/North Central Hardwoods region, which had equal or greater base-flow contribution for several months. Base flow constituted a greater percentage of the total streamflow than stormflow in all rural watersheds for all regions. Only a few storms each year dominated the annual loading totals for solids and total phosphorus. When daily loading values were ranked for the year, all regions reached 50 percent of the annual solids loading in the 5 highest loading days and nearly 50 percent of the annual total phosphorus loading in the 14 highest loading days.

Streamflow characteristics and trends in New Jersey, water years 1897-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Reiser, Robert G.; Nieswand, Steven P.; Schopp, Robert D.

2005-01-01

Streamflow statistics were computed for 111 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of continuous record and for 500 low-flow partial-record stations, including 66 gaging stations with less than 20 years of continuous record. Daily mean streamflow data from water year 1897 through water year 2001 were used for the computations at the gaging stations. (The water year is the 12-month period, October 1 through September 30, designated by the calendar year in which it ends). The characteristics presented for the long-term continuous-record stations are daily streamflow, harmonic mean flow, flow frequency, daily flow durations, trend analysis, and streamflow variability. Low-flow statistics for gaging stations with less than 20 years of record and for partial-record stations were estimated by correlating base-flow measurements with daily mean flows at long-term (more than 20 years) continuous-record stations. Instantaneous streamflow measurements through water year 2003 were used to estimate low-flow statistics at the partial-record stations. The characteristics presented for partial-record stations are mean annual flow; harmonic mean flow; and annual and winter low-flow frequency. The annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low- and high-flow data sets were tested for trends. The results of trend tests for high flows indicate relations between upward trends for high flows and stream regulation, and high flows and development in the basin. The relation between development and low-flow trends does not appear to be as strong as for development and high-flow trends. Monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation data for selected long-term meteorological stations also were tested for trends to analyze the effects of climate. A significant upward trend in precipitation in northern New Jersey, Climate Division 1 was identified. For Climate Division 2, no general increase in average precipitation was observed. Trend test results indicate that high flows at undeveloped, unregulated sites have not been affected by the increase in average precipitation. The ratio of instantaneous peak flow to 3-day mean flow, ratios of flow duration, ratios of high-flow/low-flow frequency, and coefficient of variation were used to define streamflow variability. Streamflow variability was significantly greater among the group of gaging stations located outside the Coastal Plain than among the group of gaging stations located in the Coastal Plain.

Simulation of rainfall-runoff response in mined and unmined watersheds in coal areas of West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puente, Celso; Atkins, John T.

1989-01-01

Meteorologic and hydrologic data from five small watersheds in the coal areas of West Virginia were used to calibrate and test the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System for simulating streamflow under various climatic and land-use conditions. Three of the basins--Horsecamp Run, Gilmer Run, and Collison Creek--are primarily forested and relatively undisturbed. The remaining basins--Drawdy Creek and Brier Creek-are extensively mined, both surface and underground above stream drainage level. Low-flow measurements at numerous synoptic sites in the mined basins indicate that coal mining has substantially altered the hydrologic system of each basin. The effects of mining on streamflow that were identified are (1) reduced base flow in stream segments underlain by underground mines, (2) increased base flow in streams that are downdip and stratigraphically below the elevation of the mined coal beds, and (3) interbasin transfer of ground water through underground mines. These changes probably reflect increased permeability of surface rocks caused by subsidence fractures associated with collapsed underground mines in the basin. Such fractures would increase downward percolation of precipitation, surface and subsurface flow, and ground-water flow to deeper rocks or to underground mine workings. Model simulations of the water budgets for the unmined basins during the 1972-73 water years indicate that total annual runoff averaged 60 percent of average annual precipitation; annual evapotranspiration losses averaged 40 percent of average annual precipitation. Of the total annual runoff, approximately 91 percent was surface and subsurface runoff and 9 percent was groundwater discharge. Changes in storage in the soil zone and in the subsurface and ground-water reservoirs in the basins were negligible. In contrast, water-budget simulations for the mined basins indicate significant differences in annual recharge and in total annual runoff. Model simulations of the water budget for Drawdy Creek basin indicate that total annual runoff during 1972-73 averaged only 43 percent of average annual precipitation--the lowest of all study basins; annual evapotranspiration losses averaged 49 percent, and interbasin transfer of ground-water losses averaged about 8 percent. Of the total annual runoff, approximately 74 percent was surface and subsurface flow and 26 percent was ground-water discharge. The low total annual runoff at Drawdy Creek probably reflects increased recharge of precipitation and surface and subsurface flow losses to ground water. Most of the increase in ground-water storage is, in turn, lost to a ground-water sink--namely, interbasin transfer of ground water by gravity drainage and (or) mine pumpage from underground mines that extend to adjacent basins. Hypothetical mining situations were posed for model analysis to determine the effects of increased mining on streamflow in the mined basins. Results of model simulations indicate that streamflow characteristics, the water budget, and the seasonal distribution of streamflow would be significantly modified in response to an increase in mining in the basins. Simulations indicate that (1) total annual runoff in the basins would decrease because of increased surface- and subsurface-flow losses and increased recharge of precipitation to ground water (these losses would tend to reduce medium to high flows mainly during winter and spring when losses would be greatest), (2) extreme high flows in response to intense rainstorms would be negligibly affected, regardless of the magnitude of mining in the basins, (3) ground-water discharge also would decrease during winter and spring, but the amount and duration of low flows during summer and fall would substantially increase in response to increased ground-water storage in rocks and in underground mines, and (4) the increase in ground-water storage in the basins would be depleted, mostly by increased losses to a grou

Summary of annual mean and annual harmonic mean statistics of daily mean streamflow for 620 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Texas through water year 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Heitmuller, Franklin T.

2008-01-01

Analysts and managers of surface-water resources have interest in annual mean and annual harmonic mean statistics of daily mean streamflow for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. The mean streamflow represents streamflow volume, whereas the harmonic mean streamflow represents an appropriate statistic for assessing constituent concentrations that might adversely affect human health. In 2008, the USGS, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, conducted a large-scale documentation of mean and harmonic mean streamflow for 620 active and inactive, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations using period of record data through water year 2007. About 99 stations within the Texas USGS streamflow-gaging network are part of the larger national Hydroclimatic Data Network and are identified. The graphical depictions of annual mean and annual harmonic mean statistics in this report provide a historical perspective of streamflow at each station. Each figure consists of three time-series plots, two flow-duration curves, and a statistical summary of the mean annual and annual harmonic mean streamflow statistics for available data for each station.The first time-series plot depicts daily mean streamflow for the period 1900-2007. Flow-duration curves follow and are a graphical depiction of streamflow variability. Next, the remaining two time-series plots depict annual mean and annual harmonic mean streamflow and are augmented with horizontal lines that depict mean and harmonic mean for the period of record. Monotonic trends for the annual mean streamflow and annual harmonic mean streamflow also are identified using Kendall's tau, and the slope of the trend is depicted using the nonparametric (linear) Theil-Sen line, which is only drawn for p-values less than .10 of tau. The history of annual mean and annual harmonic mean streamflow of one or more streamflow-gaging stations could be used in a watershed, river basin, or other regional context by analysts and managers of surface-water resources to guide scientific, regulatory, or other inquiries of streamflow conditions in Texas.

Impact of Different Time Series Streamflow Data on Energy Generation of a Run-of-River Hydropower Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kentel, E.; Cetinkaya, M. A.

2013-12-01

Global issues such as population increase, power supply crises, oil prices, social and environmental concerns have been forcing countries to search for alternative energy sources such as renewable energy to satisfy the sustainable development goals. Hydropower is the most common form of renewable energy in the world. Hydropower does not require any fuel, produces relatively less pollution and waste and it is a reliable energy source with relatively low operating cost. In order to estimate the average annual energy production of a hydropower plant, sufficient and dependable streamflow data is required. The goal of this study is to investigate impact of streamflow data on annual energy generation of Balkusan HEPP which is a small run-of-river hydropower plant at Karaman, Turkey. Two different stream gaging stations are located in the vicinity of Balkusan HEPP and these two stations have different observation periods: one from 1986 to 2004 and the other from 2000 to 2009. These two observation periods show different climatic characteristics. Thus, annual energy estimations based on data from these two different stations differ considerably. Additionally, neither of these stations is located at the power plant axis, thus streamflow observations from these two stream gaging stations need to be transferred to the plant axis. This requirement introduces further errors into energy estimations. Impact of different streamflow data and transfer of streamflow observations to plant axis on annual energy generation of a small hydropower plant is investigated in this study.

Hydrologic drought of water year 2011 compared to four major drought periods of the 20th century in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shivers, Molly J.; Andrews, William J.

2013-01-01

Water year 2011 (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2011) was a year of hydrologic drought (based on streamflow) in Oklahoma and the second-driest year to date (based on precipitation) since 1925. Drought conditions worsened substantially in the summer, with the highest monthly average temperature record for all States being broken by Oklahoma in July (89.1 degrees Fahrenheit), June being the second hottest and August being the hottest on record for those months for the State since 1895. Drought conditions continued into the fall, with all of the State continuing to be in severe to exceptional drought through the end of September. In addition to effects on streamflow and reservoirs, the 2011 drought increased damage from wildfires, led to declarations of states of emergency, water-use restrictions, and outdoor burning bans; caused at least $2 billion of losses in the agricultural sector and higher prices for food and other agricultural products; caused losses of tourism and wildlife; reduced hydropower generation; and lowered groundwater levels in State aquifers. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an investigation to compare the severity of the 2011 drought with four previous major hydrologic drought periods during the 20th century – water years 1929–41, 1952–56, 1961–72, and 1976–81. The period of water years 1925–2011 was selected as the period of record because few continuous record streamflow-gaging stations existed before 1925, and gaps in time existed where no streamflow-gaging stations were operated before 1925. In water year 2011, statewide annual precipitation was the 2d lowest, statewide annual streamflow was 16th lowest, and statewide annual runoff was 42d lowest of those 87 years of record. Annual area-averaged precipitation totals by the nine National Weather Service climate divisions from water year 2011 were compared to those during four previous major hydrologic drought periods to show how precipitation deficits in Oklahoma varied by region. The nine climate divisions in Oklahoma had precipitation in water year 2011 ranging from 43 to 76 percent of normal annual precipitation, with the Northeast Climate Division having the closest to normal precipitation and the Southwest Climate Division having the greatest percentage of annual deficit. Based on precipitation amounts, water year 2011 ranked as the second driest of the 1925–2011 period, being exceeded only in one year of the 1952 to 1956 drought period. Regional streamflow patterns for water year 2011 indicate that streamflow in the Arkansas-White-Red water resources region, which includes all of Oklahoma, was relatively large, being only the 26th lowest since 1930, primarily because of normal or above-normal streamflow in the northern part of the region. Twelve long-term streamflow-gaging stations with periods of record ranging from 67 to 83 years were selected to show how streamflow deficits varied by region in Oklahoma. Statewide, streamflow in water year 2011 was greater than streamflows measured in years during the drought periods of 1929–41, 1952–56, 1961–72, and 1976–81. The hydrologic drought worsened going from the northeast toward the southwest in Oklahoma, ranging from 140 percent (above normal streamflow) in the northeast, to 13 percent of normal streamflow in southwestern Oklahoma. The relatively low streamflow in 2011 resulted in 83.3 percent of the statewide conservation storage being available at the end of the water year in major reservoirs, similar to conservation storage in the preceding severe drought year of 2006. The ranking of streamflow as the 16th smallest for the 1925–2011 period, despite precipitation being ranked the 2d smallest, may have been caused, in part, by the relatively large streamflow in northeastern Oklahoma during water year 2011.

Simulation of streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the upper Guadalupe River watershed, south-central Texas, 1995-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bumgarner, Johnathan R.; Thompson, Florence E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board and the Upper Guadalupe River Authority, developed and calibrated a Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model of the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas to simulate streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the watershed and to Canyon Lake for 1995-2010. Model simulations were done to quantify the possible change in water yield of individual subbasins in the upper Guadalupe River watershed as a result of the replacement of ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) with grasslands. The simulation results will serve as a tool for resource managers to guide their brush-management efforts. Model hydrology was calibrated with streamflow data collected at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08167500 Guadalupe River near Spring Branch, Tex., for 1995-2010. Simulated monthly streamflow showed very good agreement with measured monthly streamflow: a percent bias of -5, a coefficient of determination of 0.91, and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency of 0.85. Modified land-cover input datasets were generated for the model in order to simulate the replacement of ashe juniper with grasslands in 23 brush-management subbasins in the watershed. Each of the 23 simulations showed an increase in simulated water yields in the targeted subbasins and to Canyon Lake. The simulated increases in average annual water yields in the subbasins ranged from 6,370 to 119,000 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 38,900 gallons. The simulated increases in average annual water yields to Canyon Lake from upstream subbasins ranged from 6,640 to 72,700 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 34,700 gallons.

Compilation of hydrologic data for White Sands pupfish habitat and nonhabitat areas, northern Tularosa Basin, White Sands Missile Range and Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico, 1911-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naus, C.A.; Myers, R.G.; Saleh, D.K.; Myers, N.C.

2014-01-01

The White Sands pupfish (Cyprinodon tularosa), listed as threatened by the State of New Mexico and as a Federal species of concern, is endemic to the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. Because water quality can affect pupfish and the environmental conditions of their habitat, a comprehensive compilation of hydrologic data for pupfish habitat and nonhabitat areas in the northern Tularosa Basin was undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with White Sands Missile Range. The four locations within the Tularosa Basin that are known pupfish habitat areas are the Salt Creek, Malpais Spring and Malpais Salt Marsh, Main Mound Spring, and Lost River habitat areas. Streamflow data from the Salt Creek near Tularosa streamflow-gaging station indicated that the average annual mean streamflow and average annual total streamflow for water years 1995–2008 were 1.35 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) and 983 acre-feet, respectively. Periods of no flow were observed in water years 2002 through 2006. Dissolved-solids concentrations in Salt Creek samples collected from 1911 through 2007 ranged from 2,290 to 66,700 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The average annual mean streamflow and average annual total streamflow at the Malpais Spring near Oscura streamflow-gaging station for water years 2003–8 were 6.81 ft3/s and 584 acre-feet, respectively. Dissolved-solids concentrations for 16 Malpais Spring samples ranged from 3,882 to 5,500 mg/L. Isotopic data for a Malpais Spring near Oscura water sample collected in 1982 indicated that the water was more than 27,900 years old. Streamflow from Main Mound Spring was estimated at 0.007 ft3/s in 1955 and 1957 and ranged from 0.02 to 0.07 ft3/s from 1996 to 2001. Dissolved-solids concentrations in samples collected between 1955 and 2007 ranged from an estimated 3,760 to 4,240 mg/L in the upper pond and 4,840 to 5,120 mg/L in the lower pond. Isotopic data for a Main Mound Spring water sample collected in 1982 indicated that the water was about 19,600 years old. Dissolved-solids concentrations of Lost River samples collected from 1984 to 1999 ranged from 8,930 to 118,000 (estimated) mg/L. Dissolved-solids concentrations in samples from nonhabitat area sites ranged from 1,740 to 54,200 (estimated) mg/L. In general, water collected from pupfish nonhabitat area sites tends to have larger proportions of calcium, magnesium, and sulfate than water from pupfish habitat area sites. Water from springs associated with mounds in pupfish nonhabitat areas was of a similar type (calcium-sulfate) to water associated with mounds in pupfish habitat areas. Alkali Spring had a sodium-chloride water type, but the proportions of sodium-chloride and magnesium-sulfate are unique as compared to samples from other sites.

Groundwater recharge in Wisconsin--Annual estimates for 1970-99 using streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2011-01-01

The groundwater component of streamflow is important because it is indicative of the sustained flow of a stream during dry periods, is often of better quality, and has a smaller range of temperatures, than surface contributions to streamflow. All three of these characteristics are important to the health of aquatic life in a stream. If recharge to the aquifers is to be preserved or enhanced, it is important to understand the present partitioning of total streamflow into base flow and stormflow. Additionally, an estimate of groundwater recharge is important for understanding the flows within a groundwater system-information important for water availability/sustainability or other assessments. The U.S. Geological Survey operates numerous continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (Hirsch and Norris, 2001), which can be used to provide estimates of average annual base flow. In addition to these continuous record sites, Gebert and others (2007) showed that having a few streamflow measurements in a basin can appreciably reduce the error in a base-flow estimate for that basin. Therefore, in addition to the continuous-record gaging stations, a substantial number of low-flow partial-record sites (6 to 15 discharge measurements) and miscellaneous-measurement sites (1 to 3 discharge measurements) that were operated during 1964-90 throughout the State were included in this work to provide additional insight into spatial distribution of annual base flow and, in turn, groundwater recharge.

Regression method for estimating long-term mean annual ground-water recharge rates from base flow in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.; Thompson, Ronald E.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2008-01-01

A method was developed for making estimates of long-term, mean annual ground-water recharge from streamflow data at 80 streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. The method relates mean annual base-flow yield derived from the streamflow data (as a proxy for recharge) to the climatic, geologic, hydrologic, and physiographic characteristics of the basins (basin characteristics) by use of a regression equation. Base-flow yield is the base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area of the basin, expressed in inches of water basinwide. Mean annual base-flow yield was computed for the period of available streamflow record at continuous streamflow-gaging stations by use of the computer program PART, which separates base flow from direct runoff on the streamflow hydrograph. Base flow provides a reasonable estimate of recharge for basins where streamflow is mostly unaffected by upstream regulation, diversion, or mining. Twenty-eight basin characteristics were included in the exploratory regression analysis as possible predictors of base-flow yield. Basin characteristics found to be statistically significant predictors of mean annual base-flow yield during 1971-2000 at the 95-percent confidence level were (1) mean annual precipitation, (2) average maximum daily temperature, (3) percentage of sand in the soil, (4) percentage of carbonate bedrock in the basin, and (5) stream channel slope. The equation for predicting recharge was developed using ordinary least-squares regression. The standard error of prediction for the equation on log-transformed data was 9.7 percent, and the coefficient of determination was 0.80. The equation can be used to predict long-term, mean annual recharge rates for ungaged basins, providing that the explanatory basin characteristics can be determined and that the underlying assumption is accepted that base-flow yield derived from PART is a reasonable estimate of ground-water recharge rates. For example, application of the equation for 370 hydrologic units in Pennsylvania predicted a range of ground-water recharge from about 6.0 to 22 inches per year. A map of the predicted recharge illustrates the general magnitude and variability of recharge throughout Pennsylvania.

A stream-gaging network analysis for the 7-day, 10-year annual low flow in New Hampshire streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.

2003-01-01

The 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) low-flow-frequency statistic is a widely used measure of surface-water availability in New Hampshire. Regression equations and basin-characteristic digital data sets were developed to help water-resource managers determine surface-water resources during periods of low flow in New Hampshire streams. These regression equations and data sets were developed to estimate streamflow statistics for the annual and seasonal low-flow-frequency, and period-of-record and seasonal period-of-record flow durations. generalized-least-squares (GLS) regression methods were used to develop the annual 7Q10 low-flow-frequency regression equation from 60 continuous-record stream-gaging stations in New Hampshire and in neighboring States. In the regression equation, the dependent variables were the annual 7Q10 flows at the 60 stream-gaging stations. The independent (or predictor) variables were objectively selected characteristics of the drainage basins that contribute flow to those stations. In contrast to ordinary-least-squares (OLS) regression analysis, GLS-developed estimating equations account for differences in length of record and spatial correlations among the flow-frequency statistics at the various stations.A total of 93 measurable drainage-basin characteristics were candidate independent variables. On the basis of several statistical parameters that were used to evaluate which combination of basin characteristics contribute the most to the predictive power of the equations, three drainage-basin characteristics were determined to be statistically significant predictors of the annual 7Q10: (1) total drainage area, (2) mean summer stream-gaging station precipitation from 1961 to 90, and (3) average mean annual basinwide temperature from 1961 to 1990.To evaluate the effectiveness of the stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow data for the annual 7Q10, the computer program GLSNET (generalized-least-squares NETwork) was used to analyze the network by application of GLS regression between streamflow and the climatic and basin characteristics of the drainage basin upstream from each stream-gaging station. Improvement to the predictive ability of the regression equations developed for the network analyses is measured by the reduction in the average sampling-error variance, and can be achieved by collecting additional streamflow data at existing stations. The predictive ability of the regression equations is enhanced even further with the addition of new stations to the network. Continued data collection at unregulated stream-gaging stations with less than 14 years of record resulted in the greatest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance of the annual 7Q10 regional regression equation. The addition of new stations in basins with underrepresented values for the independent variables of the total drainage area, average mean annual basinwide temperature, or mean summer stream-gaging station precipitation in the annual 7Q10 regression equation yielded a much greater cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance than when more data were collected at existing unregulated stations. To maximize the regional information obtained from the stream-gaging network for the annual 7Q10, ranking of the streamflow data can be used to determine whether an active station should be continued or if a new or discontinued station should be activated for streamflow data collection. Thus, this network analysis can help determine the costs and benefits of continuing the operation of a particular station or activating a new station at another location to predict the 7Q10 at ungaged stream reaches. The decision to discontinue an existing station or activate a new station, however, must also consider its contribution to other water-resource analyses such as flood management, water quality, or trends in land use or climatic change.

Analysis of trends in selected streamflow statistics for the Concho River Basin, Texas, 1916-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.; May, Jayne E.

2012-01-01

Six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were selected for analysis. Streamflow-gaging station 08128000 South Concho River at Christoval has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1931-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128400 Middle Concho River above Tankersley has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1962-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128500 Middle Concho River near Tankersley has no significant trends in the streamflow statistics considered for the period 1931-60. Streamflow-gaging station 08134000 North Concho River near Carlsbad has downward trends for annual mean daily discharge, annual 7-day minimum daily discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the period 1925-2009. Streamflow-gaging stations 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo and 08136500 Concho River at Paint Rock have downward trends for 1916-2009 for all streamflow statistics calculated, but streamflow-gaging station 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo has an upward trend for annual maximum daily discharge during 1964-2009. The downward trends detected during 1916-2009 for the Concho River at San Angelo are not unexpected because of three reservoirs impounding and profoundly regulating streamflow.

Seven-Day Low Streamflows in the United States, 1940-2014

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This map shows percentage changes in the minimum annual rate of water carried by rivers and streams across the country, based on the long-term rate of change from 1940 to 2014. Minimum streamflow is based on the consecutive seven-day period with the lowest average flow during a given year. Blue triangles represent an increase in low stream flow volumes, and brown triangles represent a decrease. Streamflow data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey. For more information: www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators

Changes in Streamflow and the Flux of Nutrients in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin, USA, 1980-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William A.; Aulenbach, Brent T.; Vecchia, Aldo; Buxton, Herbert T.

2010-01-01

Nutrients and freshwater delivered by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers drive algal production in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which eventually results in the widespread occurrence of hypoxic bottom waters along the Louisiana and Texas coast. Researchers have demonstrated a relation between the extent of the hypoxic zone and the magnitude of streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and nutrient concentrations in the Mississippi River, with springtime streamflows and fluxes being the most predictive. In 1999 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the flux of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica at selected sites in the Mississippi Basin and to the Gulf of Mexico for 1980-1996. These flux estimates provided the baseline information used by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force to develop an Action Plan for reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The primary goal of the Action Plan was to achieve a reduction in the size (areal extent) of the hypoxic zone from an average of approximately 14,000 square kilometers in 1996-2000 to a 5-year moving average of less than 5,000 square kilometers by 2015. Improved statistical models and adjusted maximum likelihood estimation using USGS Load Estimator (LOADEST) software were used to estimate annual and seasonal nutrient fluxes for 1980-2007 at selected sites on the Mississippi River and its tributaries. These data provide a means to evaluate the influence of natural and anthropogenic effects on delivery of water and nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico; to define subbasins that are the most important contributors of nutrients to the gulf; and to investigate the relations among streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and the size and duration of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. A comparative analysis between the baseline period of 1980-1996 and 5-year moving averages thereafter indicate that the average annual streamflow and fluxes of total nitrogen, nitrate, orthophosphate, and silica to the Gulf of Mexico have decreased. However, the flux of total phosphorus between the baseline period and subsequent 5-year periods has increased. The average spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and fluxes of silica, total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphate to the Gulf of Mexico also decreased, whereas the spring flux of total phosphorus has increased. Similar changes in streamflow and nutrient flux were observed at many sites Buxtonwithin the basin. The inputs of water, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus from the major subbasins of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin as a percentage of the to-the-gulf totals have increased from the Ohio River Basin, decreased from the Missouri River Basin, and remained relatively unchanged from the Upper Mississippi, Red, and Arkansas River Basins. Changes in streamflow and nutrient fluxes are related, but short-term variations in sources of streamflow and nutrients complicate the interpretation of factors that affect nutrient delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. Parametric time-series models are used to try and separate natural variability in nutrient flux from changes due to other causes. Results indicate that the decrease in annual nutrient fluxes that has occurred between the 1980-1996 baseline period and more recent years can be largely attributed to natural causes (climate and streamflow) and not management actions or other human controlled activities in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. The downward trends in total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and orthophosphate that were detected at either the Mississippi River near St. Francisville, La., or the Atchafalaya River at Melville, La., occurred prior to 1995. In spite of the general decrease in nutrient flux, the average size of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone has increased between 1997 and 2007. The reasons for this are not clear but could be due to the type or nature of nutrient delivery. Whereas the annual flux of total nitrogen to the Gulf of Mexico has decreased, the proporti

Effects of alternative instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options in the Big River Area, Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.; Barlow, Paul M.

2005-01-01

Transient numerical ground-water-flow simulation and optimization techniques were used to evaluate potential effects of instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options and resultant streamflow depletions in the Big River Area, Rhode Island. The 35.7 square-mile (mi2) study area includes three river basins, the Big River Basin (30.9 mi2), the Carr River Basin (which drains to the Big River Basin and is 7.33 mi2 in area), the Mishnock River Basin (3.32 mi2), and a small area that drains directly to the Flat River Reservoir. The overall objective of the simulations was to determine the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn from the three basins when constrained by streamflow requirements at four locations in the study area and by maximum rates of withdrawal at 13 existing and hypothetical well sites. The instream-flow requirement for the outlet of each basin and the outfall of Lake Mishnock were the primary variables that limited the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. A requirement to meet seasonal ground-water-demand patterns also limits the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn by up to about 50 percent of the total withdrawals without the demand-pattern constraint. Minimum water-supply demands from a public water supplier in the Mishnock River Basin, however, did not have a substantial effect on withdrawals in the Big River Basin. Hypothetical dry-period instream-flow requirements and the effects of artificial recharge also affected the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. Results of simulations indicate that annual average ground-water withdrawal rates that range up to 16 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) can be withdrawn from the study area under simulated average hydrologic conditions depending on instream-flow criteria and water-supply demand patterns. Annual average withdrawals of 10 to 12 Mgal/d are possible for proposed demands of 3.4 Mgal/d in the Mishnock Basin, and for a constant annual instream-flow criterion of 0.5 cubic foot per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) at the four streamflow-constraint locations. An average withdrawal rate of 10 Mgal/d can meet estimates of future (2020) water-supply needs of surrounding communities in Rhode Island. This withdrawal rate represents about 13 percent of the average 2002 daily withdrawal from the Scituate Reservoir (76 Mgal/d), the State?s largest water supply. Average annual withdrawal rates of 6 to 7 Mgal/d are possible for more stringent instream-flow criteria that might be used during dry-period hydrologic conditions. Two example scenarios of dry-period instream-flow constraints were evaluated: first, a minimum instream flow of 0.1 cubic foot per second at any of the four constraint locations; and second, a minimum instream flow of 10 percent of the minimum monthly streamflow estimate for each streamflow-constraint location during the period 1961?2000. The State of Rhode Island is currently (2004) considering methods for establishing instream-flow criteria for streams within the State. Twelve alternative annual, seasonal, or monthly instream-flow criteria that have been or are being considered for application in southeastern New England were used as hypothetical constraints on maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates in management-model calculations. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 5 to 16 Mgal/d under five alternative annual instream-flow criteria. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 0 to 13.6 Mgal/d under seven alternative seasonal or monthly instream-flow criteria. The effect of ground-water withdrawals on seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows under each criterion also were compared. Evaluation of management-model results indicates that a single annual instream-flowcriterion may be sufficient to preserve seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows and meet water-supply demands in the Big River Area, because withdrawals from wells in the Big

Hydrological Responses to Changes in the Rainfall Regime are Less Pronounced in Forested Basins: an Analysis of Southern Brazil, 1975-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chagas, V. B. P.; Chaffe, P. L. B.

2017-12-01

It is unknown to what extent the hydrological responses to changes in the rainfall regime vary across forested and non-forested landscapes. Southern Brazil is approximately 570000 km² and was naturally covered mostly by tropical and subtropical forests. In the last century, a large proportion of forests were replaced by agricultural activities. The rainfall regime has also changed substantially in the last decades. The annual rainfall, number and magnitude of extreme events, and number of non-rainy days have increased in most of the area. In this study, we investigated the changes in the regime of 142 streamflow gauges and 674 rainfall gauges in Southern Brazil, from 1975 to 2010. The changes in the regime were analyzed for forested basins (i.e., with more than 50% forest coverage) and non-forested basins (i.e., with less than 20% forest coverage). The area of the river basins ranged from 100 to 60000 km². We analyzed a total of six signatures that represent the regime, including annual averages, seasonality, floods, and droughts. The statistical trends of the signatures were calculated using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope. The results showed that the majority of basins with opposing signal trends for mean annual streamflow and rainfall are non-forested basins (i.e., basins with higher anthropogenic impacts). Forested basins had a lower correlation between trends in the streamflow and rainfall trends for the seasonality and the average duration of drought events. There was a lower variability in the annual maximum 1-day streamflow trends in the forested basins. Additionally, despite a decrease in the 31-day rainfall minima and an increase in the seasonality, in forested basins the 7-day streamflow minima increases were substantially larger than in non-forested basins. In summary, the forested basins were less responsive to the changes in the precipitation 1-day maxima, seasonality, number of dry days, and 31-day minima.

Surface-Water Conditions in Georgia, Water Year 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Painter, Jaime A.; Landers, Mark N.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Georgia Water Science Center-in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies-collected surface-water streamflow, water-quality, and ecological data during the 2005 Water Year (October 1, 2004-September 30, 2005). These data were compiled into layers of an interactive ArcReaderTM published map document (pmf). ArcReaderTM is a product of Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc (ESRI?). Datasets represented on the interactive map are * continuous daily mean streamflow * continuous daily mean water levels * continuous daily total precipitation * continuous daily water quality (water temperature, specific conductance dissolved oxygen, pH, and turbidity) * noncontinuous peak streamflow * miscellaneous streamflow measurements * lake or reservoir elevation * periodic surface-water quality * periodic ecological data * historical continuous daily mean streamflow discontinued prior to the 2005 water year The map interface provides the ability to identify a station in spatial reference to the political boundaries of the State of Georgia and other features-such as major streams, major roads, and other collection stations. Each station is hyperlinked to a station summary showing seasonal and annual stream characteristics for the current year and for the period of record. For continuous discharge stations, the station summary includes a one page graphical summary page containing five graphs, a station map, and a photograph of the station. The graphs provide a quick overview of the current and period-of-record hydrologic conditions of the station by providing a daily mean discharge graph for the water year, monthly statistics graph for the water year and period of record, an annual mean streamflow graph for the period of record, an annual minimum 7-day average streamflow graph for the period of record, and an annual peak streamflow graph for the period of record. Additionally, data can be accessed through the layer's link to the National Water Inventory System Web (NWISWeb) Interface.

Trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River, southeastern Arizona, and regional trends in precipitation and streamflow in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Blakemore E.; Pool, Don R.

2006-01-01

This study was done to improve the understanding of trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Annual streamflow of the river at Charleston, Arizona, has decreased by more than 50 percent during the 20th century. The San Pedro River is one of the few remaining free-flowing perennial streams in the arid Southwestern United States, and the riparian forest along the river supports several endangered species and is an important habitat for migratory birds. Trends in seasonal and annual precipitation and streamflow were evaluated for surrounding areas in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico to provide a regional perspective for the trends of the San Pedro River. Seasonal and annual streamflow trends and the relation between precipitation and streamflow in the San Pedro River Basin were evaluated to improve the understanding of the causes of trends. There were few significant trends in seasonal and annual precipitation or streamflow for the regional study area. Precipitation and streamflow records were analyzed for 11 time periods ranging from 1930 to 2002; no significant trends were found in 92 percent of the trend tests for precipitation, and no significant trends were found in 79 percent of the trend tests for streamflow. For the trends in precipitation that were significant, 90 percent were positive and most of those positive trends were in records of winter, spring, or annual precipitation that started during the mid-century drought in 1945-60. For the trends in streamflow that were significant, about half were positive and half were negative. Trends in precipitation in the San Pedro River Basin were similar to regional precipitation trends for spring and fall values and were different for summer and annual values. The largest difference was in annual precipitation, for which no trend tests were significant in the San Pedro River Basin, and 23 percent of the trend tests were significantly positive in the rest of the study area. Streamflow trends for the San Pedro River were different from regional streamflow trends. All seasonal flows for the San Pedro River, except winter flows, had significant decreasing trends, and seasonal flows for most streams in the rest of the study area had either no trend or a significant increasing trend. Two streams adjacent to the San Pedro River Basin (Whitewater Draw and Santa Cruz River), however, had significant decreasing trends in summer streamflow. Factors that caused the decreasing trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River at Charleston were investigated. Possible factors were fluctuations in precipitation and air temperature, changes in watershed characteristics, human activities, or changes in seasonal distribution of bank storage. This study statistically removed or accounted for the variation in streamflow caused by fluctuations in precipitation. Thus, the remaining variation or trend in streamflow was caused by factors other than precipitation. Two methods were used to partition the variation in streamflow and to determine trends in the partitioned variation: (1) regression analysis between precipitation and streamflow using all years in the record and evaluation of time trends in regression residuals, and (2) development of regression equations between precipitation and streamflow for three time periods (early, middle, and late parts of the record) and testing to determine if the three regression equations were significantly different. The methods were applied to monthly values of total flow (average flow) and storm runoff (maximum daily mean flow) for 1913-2002, and to monthly values of low flow (3-day low flow) for 1931-2002. Statistical tests provide strong evidence that factors other than precipitation caused a decrease in streamflow of the San Pedro River. Factors other than precipitation caused significant decreasing trends in streamflows for late spring through early winter and did not cause significant trends f

Streamflow alteration at selected sites in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.; Eng, Ken

2017-06-26

An understanding of streamflow alteration in response to various disturbances is necessary for the effective management of stream habitat for a variety of species in Kansas. Streamflow alteration can have negative ecological effects. Using a modeling approach, streamflow alteration was assessed for 129 selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the State for which requisite streamflow and basin-characteristic information was available. The assessment involved a comparison of the observed condition from 1980 to 2015 with the predicted expected (least-disturbed) condition for 29 streamflow metrics. The metrics represent various characteristics of streamflow including average flow (annual, monthly) and low and high flow (frequency, duration, magnitude).Streamflow alteration in Kansas was indicated locally, regionally, and statewide. Given the absence of a pronounced trend in annual precipitation in Kansas, a precipitation-related explanation for streamflow alteration was not supported. Thus, the likely explanation for streamflow alteration was human activity. Locally, a flashier flow regime (typified by shorter lag times and more frequent and higher peak discharges) was indicated for three streamgages with urbanized basins that had higher percentages of impervious surfaces than other basins in the State. The combination of localized reservoir effects and regional groundwater pumping from the High Plains aquifer likely was responsible, in part, for diminished conditions indicated for multiple streamflow metrics in western and central Kansas. Statewide, the implementation of agricultural land-management practices to reduce runoff may have been responsible, in part, for a diminished duration and magnitude of high flows. In central and eastern Kansas, implemented agricultural land-management practices may have been partly responsible for an inflated magnitude of low flows at several sites.

Summary of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and L-scale statistics of daily mean streamflow for 712 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging Stations in Texas Through 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Vrabel, Joseph; Roussel, Meghan C.

2007-01-01

Analysts and managers of surface-water resources might have interest in selected statistics of daily mean streamflow for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. The selected statistics are the annual mean, maximum, minimum, and L-scale of daily meanstreamflow. Annual L-scale of streamflow is a robust measure of the variability of the daily mean streamflow for a given year. The USGS, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, initiated in 2006a data and reporting process to generate annual statistics for 712 USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. A graphical depiction of the history of the annual statistics for most active and inactive, continuous-record gaging stations in Texas provides valuable information by conveying the historical perspective of streamflow for the watershed. Each figure consists off our time-series plots of the annual statistics of daily mean streamflow for each streamflow-gaging station. Each of the four plots is augmented with horizontal lines that depict the mean and median annual values of the corresponding statistic for the period of record. Monotonic trends for each of the four annual statistics also are identified using Kendall's T. The history of one or more streamflow-gaging stations could be used in a watershed, river basin, or other regional context by analysts and managers of surface-water resources to guide scientific, regulatory, or other inquiries of streamflow conditions in Texas.

Updating estimates of low streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, A. G.; Archfield, S. A.; Hirsch, R. M.; Vogel, R. M.; Kiang, J. E.; Dudley, R. W.

2017-12-01

Given evidence of both increasing and decreasing trends in low flows in many streams, methods are needed to update estimators of low flow statistics used in water resources management. One such metric is the 10-year annual low-flow statistic (7Q10) calculated as the annual minimum seven-day streamflow which is exceeded in nine out of ten years on average. Historical streamflow records may not be representative of current conditions at a site if environmental conditions are changing. We present a new approach to frequency estimation under nonstationary conditions that applies a stationary nonparametric quantile estimator to a subset of the annual minimum flow record. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were used to evaluate this approach across a range of trend and no trend scenarios. Relative to the standard practice of using the entire available streamflow record, use of a nonparametric quantile estimator combined with selection of the most recent 30 or 50 years for 7Q10 estimation were found to improve accuracy and reduce bias. Benefits of data subset selection approaches were greater for higher magnitude trends annual minimum flow records with lower coefficients of variation. A nonparametric trend test approach for subset selection did not significantly improve upon always selecting the last 30 years of record. At 174 stream gages in the Chesapeake Bay region, 7Q10 estimators based on the most recent 30 years of flow record were compared to estimators based on the entire period of record. Given the availability of long records of low streamflow, using only a subset of the flow record ( 30 years) can be used to update 7Q10 estimators to better reflect current streamflow conditions.

Trends in selected streamflow and stream-channel characteristics for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Kunze, Allison E.

2002-01-01

Monotonic upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were identified statistically for the streamflow-gaging station on the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio. No monotonic trends were identified for the annual peak streamflow series or partial-duration series of peak streamflows augmented with annual peak streamflows that did not exceed a base discharge of 4,000 cubic feet per second. A plot of cumulative departure of annual precipitation from the long-term mean annual precipitation for the weather-observation station at Hiram, Ohio, indicates a relatively dry period extending from about 1910 to about 1968, followed by a relatively wet period extending from about 1968 to the late 1990s. A plot of cumulative departure of annual mean streamflow from the mean annual streamflow for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio, closely mimics the shape of the precipitation departure plot, indicating that the annual mean streamflows increased in concert with annual precipitation. These synchronous trends likely explain why upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were observed. A lack of trend in peak streamflows indicates that the intensity and severity of flood-producing storms did not increase appreciably along with the increases in annual precipitation. An analysis of point-of-zero-flow data indicates that the low-water control of the Chagrin River streamflow-gaging station tended to aggrade over the period 1930?93; however, the magnitude of aggradation is sufficiently small that its effect on stages of moderate to large floods would be negligible. Stage values associated with reference streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second tended to remain fairly stable during the period from about 1950 to 1970 and then decreased slightly during the period from about 1970 to 1980, suggesting that the flood-carrying capacity of the stream increased somewhat during the latter period. Since a large flood on May 26, 1989, significant changes have occurred in the relation between stage and streamflow. The most recent relation indicates that stage values associated with streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second are about 0.5 foot and 0.1 foot higher, respectively, than the pre-1989 levels.

Water resources of the Humboldt River Valley near Winnemucca, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Philip M.

1965-01-01

This report, resulting from studies made by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the interagency Humboldt River Research Project, describes the qualitative and quantitative relations among the components of the hydrologic system in the Winnemucca Reach of the Humboldt River valley. The area studied includes the segment of the Humboldt River valley between the Comus and Rose Creek gaging stations. It is almost entirely in Humboldt County in north-central Nevada, and is about 200 miles downstream from the headwaters of the Humboldt River. Agriculture is the major economic activity in the area. Inasmuch as the valley lowlands receive an average of about 8 inches of precipitation per year and because the rate of evaporation from free-water surfaces is about six times the average annual precipitation, all crops in the area (largely forage crops) are irrigated. About 85 percent of the cultivated land is irrigated with Humboldt River water; the remainder is irrigated from about 20 irrigation wells. The consolidated rocks of the uplifted fault-block mountains are largely barriers to the movement of ground water and form ground-water and surface-water divides. Unconsolidated deposits of late Tertiary and Quaternary age underlie the valley lowlands to a maximum depth of about 5,000 feet. These deposits are in hydraulic continuity with the Humboldt River and store and transmit most of the economically recoverable ground water. Included in the valley fill is a highly permeable sand and gravel deposit having a maximum thickness of about 90-100 feet; it underlies the flood plain and bordering terraces throughout most of the project area. This deposit is almost completely saturated and contains about 500,000 acre-feet of ground water in storage. The Humboldt River is the source of 90-95 percent of the surface-water inflow to the area. In water years 1949-62 the average annual streamflow at the Comus gaging station at the upstream margin of the area was 172,100 acre-feet; outflow at the Rose Creek gaging station averaged about 155,400 acre-feet. Accordingly, the measured loss of Humboldt River streamflow averaged nearly 17,000 acre-feet per year. Most of this water was transpired by phreatophytes and crops, evaporated from free-water surfaces, and evaporated from bare soil. Inasmuch as practically no tributary streamflow normally discharges into the river in the Winnemucca reach and because pumpage is virtually negligible during the nonirrigation season, gains and losses of streamflow during most of the year reflect the close interrelation of the Humboldt River and the groundwater reservoir. An estimated average of about 14,000 acre-feet per year of ground-water underflow moves toward the Humboldt River from tributary areas. Much of this water discharges into the Humboldt River; hovever, some evaporates or is transpired before reaching the river. More than 65 percent of the average annual flow of the river horn-ally occurs in April, May, and June owing to the spring runoff. The stage of the river generally rises rapidly during these months causing water to move from the river to the ground-water reservoir. Furthermore, the period of high streamflow normally coincides with the irrigation season, and much of the excess irrigation water diverted from the river percolates downward to the zone of saturation. The net measured loss of streamflow in April-June, which averaged about 24,000 acre-feet in water years 1949-62, was about 7,000 acre-feet more than the average annual loss. The estimated net average annual increase of ground water in storage during these months in this period was on the order of 10,000 acre-feet. Following the spring runoff and the irrigation season, normally in July, some of the ground water stored in the flood-plain deposits during the spring runoff begins to discharge into the river. In addition, ground-water inflow from tributary areas again begins to discharge into the river. Experiments utilizin

Regression Equations for Monthly and Annual Mean and Selected Percentile Streamflows for Ungaged Rivers in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.

2015-12-03

The largest average errors of prediction are associated with regression equations for the lowest streamflows derived for months during which the lowest streamflows of the year occur (such as the 5 and 1 monthly percentiles for August and September). The regression equations have been derived on the basis of streamflow and basin characteristics data for unregulated, rural drainage basins without substantial streamflow or drainage modifications (for example, diversions and (or) regulation by dams or reservoirs, tile drainage, irrigation, channelization, and impervious paved surfaces), therefore using the equations for regulated or urbanized basins with substantial streamflow or drainage modifications will yield results of unknown error. Input basin characteristics derived using techniques or datasets other than those documented in this report or using values outside the ranges used to develop these regression equations also will yield results of unknown error.

Estimation of streamflow, base flow, and nitrate-nitrogen loads in Iowa using multiple linear regression models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

2005-01-01

Nineteen variables, including precipitation, soils and geology, land use, and basin morphologic characteristics, were evaluated to develop Iowa regression models to predict total streamflow (Q), base flow (Qb), storm flow (Qs) and base flow percentage (%Qb) in gauged and ungauged watersheds in the state. Discharge records from a set of 33 watersheds across the state for the 1980 to 2000 period were separated into Qb and Qs. Multiple linear regression found that 75.5 percent of long term average Q was explained by rainfall, sand content, and row crop percentage variables, whereas 88.5 percent of Qb was explained by these three variables plus permeability and floodplain area variables. Qs was explained by average rainfall and %Qb was a function of row crop percentage, permeability, and basin slope variables. Regional regression models developed for long term average Q and Qb were adapted to annual rainfall and showed good correlation between measured and predicted values. Combining the regression model for Q with an estimate of mean annual nitrate concentration, a map of potential nitrate loads in the state was produced. Results from this study have important implications for understanding geomorphic and land use controls on streamflow and base flow in Iowa watersheds and similar agriculture dominated watersheds in the glaciated Midwest. (JAWRA) (Copyright ?? 2005).

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability streamflows for streams in Kansas based on data through water year 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Painter, Colin C.; Heimann, David C.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer L.

2017-08-14

A study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Transportation and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to develop regression models to estimate peak streamflows of annual exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent at ungaged locations in Kansas. Peak streamflow frequency statistics from selected streamgages were related to contributing drainage area and average precipitation using generalized least-squares regression analysis. The peak streamflow statistics were derived from 151 streamgages with at least 25 years of streamflow data through 2015. The developed equations can be used to predict peak streamflow magnitude and frequency within two hydrologic regions that were defined based on the effects of irrigation. The equations developed in this report are applicable to streams in Kansas that are not substantially affected by regulation, surface-water diversions, or urbanization. The equations are intended for use for streams with contributing drainage areas ranging from 0.17 to 14,901 square miles in the nonirrigation effects region and, 1.02 to 3,555 square miles in the irrigation-affected region, corresponding to the range of drainage areas of the streamgages used in the development of the regional equations.

Increased evaporation following widespread tree mortality limits streamflow response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Harpold, A. A.; Gochis, D. J.; Ewers, B. E.; Reed, D. E.; Papuga, S. A.; Brooks, P. D.

2014-07-01

A North American epidemic of mountain pine beetle (MPB) has disturbed over 5 million ha of forest containing headwater catchments crucial to water resources. However, there are limited observations of MPB effects on partitioning of precipitation between vapor loss and streamflow, and to our knowledge these fluxes have not been observed simultaneously following disturbance. We combined eddy covariance vapor loss (V), catchment streamflow (Q), and stable isotope indicators of evaporation (E) to quantify hydrologic partitioning over 3 years in MPB-impacted and control sites. Annual control V was conservative, varying only from 573 to 623 mm, while MPB site V varied more widely from 570 to 700 mm. During wet periods, MPB site V was greater than control V in spite of similar above-canopy potential evapotranspiration (PET). During a wet year, annual MPB V was greater and annual Q was lower as compared to an average year, while in a dry year, essentially all water was partitioned to V. Ratios of 2H and 18O in stream and soil water showed no kinetic evaporation at the control site, while MPB isotope ratios fell below the local meteoric water line, indicating greater E and snowpack sublimation (Ss) counteracted reductions in transpiration (T) and sublimation of canopy-intercepted snow (Sc). Increased E was possibly driven by reduced canopy shading of shortwave radiation, which averaged 21 W m-2 during summer under control forest as compared to 66 W m-2 under MPB forest. These results show that abiotic vapor losses may limit widely expected streamflow increases.

Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeger, K. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the landscape that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for targeted management efforts to protect critical reaches.

Water resources management: Hydrologic characterization through hydrograph simulation may bias streamflow statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, W. H.; Kiang, J. E.

2017-12-01

The development, deployment and maintenance of water resources management infrastructure and practices rely on hydrologic characterization, which requires an understanding of local hydrology. With regards to streamflow, this understanding is typically quantified with statistics derived from long-term streamgage records. However, a fundamental problem is how to characterize local hydrology without the luxury of streamgage records, a problem that complicates water resources management at ungaged locations and for long-term future projections. This problem has typically been addressed through the development of point estimators, such as regression equations, to estimate particular statistics. Physically-based precipitation-runoff models, which are capable of producing simulated hydrographs, offer an alternative to point estimators. The advantage of simulated hydrographs is that they can be used to compute any number of streamflow statistics from a single source (the simulated hydrograph) rather than relying on a diverse set of point estimators. However, the use of simulated hydrographs introduces a degree of model uncertainty that is propagated through to estimated streamflow statistics and may have drastic effects on management decisions. We compare the accuracy and precision of streamflow statistics (e.g. the mean annual streamflow, the annual maximum streamflow exceeded in 10% of years, and the minimum seven-day average streamflow exceeded in 90% of years, among others) derived from point estimators (e.g. regressions, kriging, machine learning) to that of statistics derived from simulated hydrographs across the continental United States. Initial results suggest that the error introduced through hydrograph simulation may substantially bias the resulting hydrologic characterization.

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

2017-01-01

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

Assessment of statewide annual streamflow in New Mexico, 1985-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Affinati, Joseph Anthony; Myers, Nathan C.

2015-01-01

The San Francisco River annual flows were relatively high compared to other years in the study in 1985, 1991–93, 1995, and 2005 but were near or below average for the rest of the years of the study. Both reaches on the San Francisco River were gaining reaches for all 29 years of the study.

Simulation of streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the Double Mountain Fork Brazos River watershed, western Texas 1994–2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.; Stengel, Victoria G.; Bumgarner, Johnathan R.

2016-04-20

The calibrated watershed model was used to perform brush-management simulations. The National Land Cover Database 2006, which was the land-cover data used to develop the watershed model, was modified to simulate shrubland replacement with grassland in each of the 35 model subbasins. After replacement of shrubland with grassland in areas with land slope less than 20 percent and excluding riparian areas, the modeled 20-year (1994 through 2013) water yields to Lake Alan Henry increased by 114,000 acre-feet or about 5,700 acre-feet per year. In terms of the increase in water yield per acre of shrubland replaced with grassland, the average annual increase in water yield was 17,300 gallons per acre. Within the modeled subbasins, the increase in average annual water yield ranged from 5,850 to 34,400 gallons per acre of shrubland replaced with grassland. Subbasins downstream from the Justiceburg gage had a higher average annual increase in water yield (21,700 gallons per acre) than subbasins upstream from the streamflow-gaging station (16,800 gallons per acre).

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the lower San Antonio River Watershed, South-Central Texas, 2000-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lizarraga, Joy S.; Ockerman, Darwin J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, the Evergreen Underground Water Conservation District, and the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District, configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 2,150 square miles of the lower San Antonio River watershed in Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, Goliad, Victoria, and Refugio Counties in south-central Texas. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge using rainfall, potential ET, and upstream discharge data obtained from National Weather Service meteorological stations and USGS streamflow-gaging stations. Additional time-series inputs to the model include wastewater treatment-plant discharges, withdrawals for cropland irrigation, and estimated inflows from springs. Model simulations of streamflow, ET, and groundwater recharge were done for 2000-2007. Because of the complexity of the study area, the lower San Antonio River watershed was divided into four subwatersheds; separate HSPF models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations of the three upstream models, then running the downstream model. The surficial geology was simplified as nine contiguous water-budget zones to meet model computational limitations and also to define zones for which ET, recharge, and other water-budget information would be output by the model. The model was calibrated and tested using streamflow data from 10 streamflow-gaging stations; additionally, simulated ET was compared with measured ET from a meteorological station west of the study area. The model calibration is considered very good; streamflow volumes were calibrated to within 10 percent of measured streamflow volumes. During 2000-2007, the estimated annual mean rainfall for the water-budget zones ranged from 33.7 to 38.5 inches per year; the estimated annual mean rainfall for the entire watershed was 34.3 inches. Using the HSPF model it was estimated that for 2000-2007, less than 10 percent of the annual mean rainfall on the study watershed exited the watershed as streamflow, whereas about 82 percent, or an average of 28.2 inches per year, exited the watershed as ET. Estimated annual mean groundwater recharge for the entire study area was 3.0 inches, or about 9 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was largest in water-budget zone 3, the zone where the Carrizo Sand outcrops. In water-budget zone 3, the estimated annual mean recharge was 5.1 inches or about 15 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was smallest in water-budget zone 6, about 1.1 inches or about 3 percent of annual mean rainfall. The Cibolo Creek subwatershed and the subwatershed of the San Antonio River upstream from Cibolo Creek had the largest and smallest basin yields, about 4.8 inches and 1.2 inches, respectively. Estimated annual ET and annual recharge generally increased with increasing annual rainfall. Also, ET was larger in zones 8 and 9, the most downstream zones in the watershed. Model limitations include possible errors related to model conceptualization and parameter variability, lack of data to quantify certain model inputs, and measurement errors. Uncertainty regarding the degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error.

Floods in Central Texas, September 7-14, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.

2012-01-01

Severe flooding occurred near the Austin metropolitan area in central Texas September 7–14, 2010, because of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Hermine. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Brushy Creek Water Control and Improvement District, determined rainfall amounts and annual exceedance probabilities for rainfall resulting in flooding in Bell, Williamson, and Travis counties in central Texas during September 2010. We documented peak streamflows and the annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflows recorded at several streamflow-gaging stations in the study area. The 24-hour rainfall total exceeded 12 inches at some locations, with one report of 14.57 inches at Lake Georgetown. Rainfall probabilities were estimated using previously published depth-duration frequency maps for Texas. At 4 sites in Williamson County, the 24-hour rainfall had an annual exceedance probability of 0.002. Streamflow measurement data and flood-peak data from U.S. Geological Survey surface-water monitoring stations (streamflow and reservoir gaging stations) are presented, along with a comparison of September 2010 flood peaks to previous known maximums in the periods of record. Annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflow were computed for 20 streamflow-gaging stations based on an analysis of streamflow-gaging station records. The annual exceedance probability was 0.03 for the September 2010 peak streamflow at the Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging stations 08104700 North Fork San Gabriel River near Georgetown, Texas, and 08154700 Bull Creek at Loop 360 near Austin, Texas. The annual exceedance probability was 0.02 for the peak streamflow for Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging station 08104500 Little River near Little River, Texas. The lack of similarity in the annual exceedance probabilities computed for precipitation and streamflow might be attributed to the small areal extent of the heaviest rainfall over these and the other gaged watersheds.

Trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow characteristics at 227 streamgages in the Missouri River watershed, water years 1960-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Parker A.; Anderson, Mark T.; Stamm, John F.

2014-01-01

The Missouri River and its tributaries are an important resource that serve multiple uses including agriculture, energy, recreation, and municipal water supply. Understanding historical streamflow characteristics provides relevant guidance to adaptive management of these water resources. Streamflow records in the Missouri River watershed were examined for trends in time series of annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A total of 227 streamgages having continuous observational records for water years 1960–2011 were examined. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine statistical significance of trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A trend was considered statistically significant for a probability value less than or equal to 0.10 that the Kendall’s tau value equals zero. Significant trends in annual streamflow were indicated for 101 out of a total of 227 streamgages. The Missouri River watershed was divided into six watershed regions and trends within regions were examined. The western and the southern parts of the Missouri River watershed had downward trends in annual streamflow (56 streamgages), whereas the eastern part of the watershed had upward trends in streamflow (45 streamgages). Seasonal and monthly streamflow trends reflected prevailing annual streamflow trends within each watershed region.

Streamflow statistical summaries for Colorado streams through September 30, 1975; Volume 2, Colorado River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petsch, Harold E.

1979-01-01

Statistical summaries of daily streamflow data for 189 stations west of the Continental Divide in Colorado are presented in this report. Duration tables, high-flow sequence tables, and low-flow sequence tables provide information about daily mean discharge. The mean, variance, standard deviation, skewness, and coefficient of variation are provided for monthly and annual flows. Percentages of average flow are provided for monthly flows and first-order serial-correlation coefficients are provided for annual flows. The text explain the nature and derivation of the data and illustrates applications of the tabulated information by examples. The data may be used by agencies and individuals engaged in water studies. (USGS)

Evaluation of the streamflow-gaging network of Alaska in providing regional streamflow information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabets, Timothy P.

1996-01-01

In 1906, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began operating a network of streamflow-gaging stations in Alaska. The primary purpose of the streamflow- gaging network has been to provide peak flow, average flow, and low-flow characteristics to a variety of users. In 1993, the USGS began a study to evaluate the current network of 78 stations. The objectives of this study were to determine the adequacy of the existing network in predicting selected regional flow characteristics and to determine if providing additional streamflow-gaging stations could improve the network's ability to predict these characteristics. Alaska was divided into six distinct hydrologic regions: Arctic, Northwest, Southcentral, Southeast, Southwest, and Yukon. For each region, historical and current streamflow data were compiled. In Arctic, Northwest, and Southwest Alaska, insufficient data were available to develop regional regression equations. In these areas, proposed locations of streamflow-gaging stations were selected by using clustering techniques to define similar areas within a region and by spatial visual analysis using the precipitation, physiographic, and hydrologic unit maps of Alaska. Sufficient data existed in Southcentral and Southeast Alaska to use generalized least squares (GLS) procedures to develop regional regression equations to estimate the 50-year peak flow, annual average flow, and a low-flow statistic. GLS procedures were also used for Yukon Alaska but the results should be used with caution because the data do not have an adequate spatial distribution. Network analysis procedures were used for the Southcentral, Southeast, and Yukon regions. Network analysis indicates the reduction in the sampling error of the regional regression equation that can be obtained given different scenarios. For Alaska, a 10-year planning period was used. One scenario showed the results of continuing the current network with no additional gaging stations and another scenario showed the results of adding gaging stations to the network. With the exception of the annual average discharge equation for Southeast Alaska, by adding gaging stations in all three regions, the sampling error was reduced to a greater extent than by not adding gaging stations. The proposed streamflow-gaging network for Alaska consists of 308 gaging stations, of which 32 are designated as index stations. If the proposed network can not be implemented in its entirety, then a lesser cost alternative would be to establish the index stations and to implement the network for a particular region.

Total Phosphorus Loads for Selected Tributaries to Sebago Lake, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2001-01-01

The streamflow and water-quality datacollection networks of the Portland Water District (PWD) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as of February 2000 were analyzed in terms of their applicability for estimating total phosphorus loads for selected tributaries to Sebago Lake in southern Maine. The long-term unit-area mean annual flows for the Songo River and for small, ungaged tributaries are similar to the long-term unit-area mean annual flows for the Crooked River and other gaged tributaries to Sebago Lake, based on a regression equation that estimates mean annual streamflows in Maine. Unit-area peak streamflows of Sebago Lake tributaries can be quite different, based on a regression equation that estimates peak streamflows for Maine. Crooked River had a statistically significant positive relation (Kendall's Tau test, p=0.0004) between streamflow and total phosphorus concentration. Panther Run had a statistically significant negative relation (p=0.0015). Significant positive relations may indicate contributions from nonpoint sources or sediment resuspension, whereas significant negative relations may indicate dilution of point sources. Total phosphorus concentrations were significantly larger in the Crooked River than in the Songo River (Wilcoxon rank-sum test, p<0.0001). Evidence was insufficient, however, to indicate that phosphorus concentrations from medium-sized drainage basins, at a significance level of 0.05, were different from each other or that concentrations in small-sized drainage basins were different from each other (Kruskal-Wallis test, p= 0.0980, 0.1265). All large- and medium-sized drainage basins were sampled for total phosphorus approximately monthly. Although not all small drainage basins were sampled, they may be well represented by the small drainage basins that were sampled. If the tributaries gaged by PWD had adequate streamflow data, the current PWD tributary monitoring program would probably produce total phosphorus loading data that would represent all gaged and ungaged tributaries to Sebago Lake. Outside the PWD tributary-monitoring program, the largest ungaged tributary to Sebago Lake contains 1.5 percent of the area draining to the lake. In the absence of unique point or nonpoint sources of phosphorus, ungaged tributaries are unlikely to have total phosphorus concentrations that differ significantly from those in the small tributaries that have concentration data. The regression method, also known as the rating-curve method, was used to estimate the annual total phosphorus load for Crooked River, Northwest River, and Rich Mill Pond Outlet for water years 1996-98. The MOVE.1 method was used to estimate daily streamflows for the regression method at Northwest River and Rich Mill Pond Outlet, where streamflows were not continuously monitored. An averaging method also was used to compute annual loads at the three sites. The difference between the regression estimate and the averaging estimate for each of the three tributaries was consistent with what was expected from previous studies.

The contributions of climate and land cover impacts on streamflow in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shaochun; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Beldring, Stein

2017-04-01

Located in high latitudes, Norway experienced significant changes in climate in the last 115 years. The average temperature rises at an average rate of 0.09 °C/decade while the annual precipitation increased by ca. 16% from 1900 to 2014 with statistical significance. In the meantime, the standing forest timber volume has increased continuously and almost tripled by the year 2012. Both the changes in climate and land cover would directly affect the streamflow and the hydropower production in Norway, which accounts for about 98% of the total electricity production of the whole country. However, there is a lack of understanding of the contribution of these different drivers to changes in streamflow in Norway, although such knowledge provides important information for future changes in water availability. This paper aims to quantify the relative contribution of climate and land cover impacts on the mean annual and seasonal streamflow (including total, quick and base flow) using the hydrological model HBV for 56 natural catchments in Norway. The changes in forest extend and structure are considered as the major land cover changes in these catchments. The discharge data are split into two periods (1961 - 1988 and 1989 - 2015) as the reference and changing periods. The HBV model was firstly calibrated in the reference period for all catchment separately and the simulated discharge in the changing period was used to calculate the relative contributions. The results show that the climate change played a bigger role than land cover change on annual total, quick and base flows in 62%, 48% and 82% studied basins, respectively. The climate change is the dominant driver on streamflows in winter and spring in most basins, while the land use change affected more significantly on summer flows as well as the base flow in autumn. Finally, the resulted contribution will be compared with the changes in climate and forest characteristics as external validation.

Low-flow characteristics of streams in Ohio through water year 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Straub, David E.

2001-01-01

This report presents selected low-flow and flow-duration characteristics for 386 sites throughout Ohio. These sites include 195 long-term continuous-record stations with streamflow data through water year 1997 (October 1 to September 30) and for 191 low-flow partial-record stations with measurements into water year 1999. The characteristics presented for the long-term continuous-record stations are minimum daily streamflow; average daily streamflow; harmonic mean flow; 1-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day minimum average low flow with 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year recurrence intervals; and 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, 50-, 40-, 30-, 20-, and 10-percent daily duration flows. The characteristics presented for the low-flow partial-record stations are minimum observed streamflow; estimated 1-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day minimum average low flow with 2-, 10-, and 20-year recurrence intervals; and estimated 98-, 95-, 90-, 85- and 80-percent daily duration flows. The low-flow frequency and duration analyses were done for three seasonal periods (warm weather, May 1 to November 30; winter, December 1 to February 28/29; and autumn, September 1 to November 30), plus the annual period based on the climatic year (April 1 to March 31).

The cumulative effects of forest disturbance and climate variability on streamflow components in a large forest-dominated watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiang; Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang; Liu, Wenfei; Giles-Hansen, Krysta; Wang, Yi

2018-02-01

Assessing how forest disturbance and climate variability affect streamflow components is critical for watershed management, ecosystem protection, and engineering design. Previous studies have mainly evaluated the effects of forest disturbance on total streamflow, rarely with attention given to its components (e.g., base flow and surface runoff), particularly in large watersheds (>1000 km2). In this study, the Upper Similkameen River watershed (1810 km2), an international watershed situated between Canada and the USA, was selected to examine how forest disturbance and climate variability interactively affect total streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff. Baseflow was separated using a combination of the recursive digital filter method and conductivity mass balance method. Time series analysis and modified double mass curves were then employed to quantitatively separate the relative contributions of forest disturbance and climate variability to each streamflow component. Our results showed that average annual baseflow and baseflow index (baseflow/streamflow) were 113.3 ± 35.6 mm year-1 and 0.27 for 1954-2013, respectively. Forest disturbance increased annual streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff of 27.7 ± 13.7 mm, 7.4 ± 3.6 mm, and 18.4 ± 12.9 mm, respectively, with its relative contributions to the changes in respective streamflow components being 27.0 ± 23.0%, 29.2 ± 23.1%, and 25.7 ± 23.4%, respectively. In contrast, climate variability decreased them by 74.9 ± 13.7 mm, 17.9 ± 3.6 mm, and 53.3 ± 12.9 mm, respectively, with its relative contributions to the changes in respective streamflow components being 73.0 ± 23.0%, 70.8 ± 23.1% and 73.1 ± 23.4%, respectively. Despite working in opposite ways, the impacts of climate variability on annual streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff were of a much greater magnitude than forest disturbance impacts. This study has important implications for the protection of aquatic habitat, engineering design, and watershed planning in the context of future forest disturbance and climate change.

Trends in streamflow in the Yukon River Basin from 1944 to 2005 and the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabets, T.P.; Walvoord, Michelle Ann

2009-01-01

Streamflow characteristics in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska and Canada have changed from 1944 to 2005, and some of the change can be attributed to the two most recent modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Seasonal, monthly, and annual stream discharge data from 21 stations in the Yukon River Basin were analyzed for trends over the entire period of record, generally spanning 4-6 decades, and examined for differences between the two most recent modes of the PDO: cold-PDO (1944-1975) and warm-PDO (1976-2005) subsets. Between 1944 and 2005, average winter and April flow increased at 15 sites. Observed winter flow increases during the cold-PDO phase were generally limited to sites in the Upper Yukon River Basin. Positive trends in winter flow during the warm-PDO phase broadened to include stations in the Middle and Lower Yukon River drainage basins. Increases in winter streamflow most likely result from groundwater input enhanced by permafrost thawing that promotes infiltration and deeper subsurface flow paths. Increased April flow may be attributed to a combination of greater baseflow (from groundwater increases), earlier spring snowmelt and runoff, and increased winter precipitation, depending on location. Calculated deviations from long-term mean monthly discharges indicate below-average flow in the winter months during the cold PDO and above-average flow in the winter months during the warm PDO. Although not as strong a signal, results also support the reverse response during the summer months: above-average flow during the cold PDO and below-average flow during the warm PDO. Changes in the summer flows are likely an indirect consequence of the PDO, resulting from earlier spring snowmelt runoff and also perhaps increased summer infiltration and storage in a deeper active layer. Annual discharge has remained relatively unchanged in the Yukon River Basin, but a few glacier-fed rivers demonstrate positive trends, which can be attributed to enhanced glacier melting. A positive trend in annual flow during the warm PDO near the mouth of the Yukon River suggests that small increases in flow throughout the Yukon River Basin have resulted in an additive effect manifested in the downstream-most streamflow station. Many of the identified changes in streamflow patterns in the Yukon River Basin show a correlation to the PDO regime shift. This work highlights the importance of considering proximate climate forcings as well as global climate change when assessing hydrologic changes in the Arctic.

Potentiometric surfaces of the upper glacial and Magothy aquifers and selected streamflow statistics, 1943-72, on Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaupel, Donald E.; Prince, K.R.; Koehler, A.J.; Runco, Mario

1977-01-01

A brief text describes the two major aquifers and the discharge pattern of major streams on Long Island. Four water-table maps for the years 1943, 1959, 1966, and 1972, an average water-table map for the period 1943-72 supplemented by five well hydrographs representing Kings, Queens, western Nassau, eastern Nassau, and Suffolk Counties, and three potentiometric- surface maps of the Magothy aquifer for the years 1959, 1966, and 1972 are included. A statistical summary of stream discharge presents average annual discharges, annual average discharges, and average 7-day, 10-year low-flow discharges for major streams.

Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Mandy L.; Juracek, Kyle E.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy

2015-01-01

Cheney Reservoir, constructed during 1962 to 1965, is the primary water supply for the city of Wichita, the largest city in Kansas. Sediment is an important concern for the reservoir as it degrades water quality and progressively decreases water storage capacity. Long-term data collection provided a unique opportunity to estimate the annual suspended sediment loads for the entire history of the reservoir. To quantify and characterize sediment loading to Cheney Reservoir, discrete suspended sediment samples and continuously measured streamflow data were collected from the North Fork Ninnescah River, the primary inflow to Cheney Reservoir, over a 48-year period. Continuous turbidity data also were collected over a 15-year period. These data were used together to develop simple linear regression models to compute continuous suspended sediment concentrations and loads from 1966 to 2013. The inclusion of turbidity as an additional explanatory variable with streamflow improved regression model diagnostics and increased the amount of variability in suspended sediment concentration explained by 14%. Using suspended sediment concentration from the streamflow-only model, the average annual suspended sediment load was 102,517 t (113,006 tn) and ranged from 4,826 t (5,320 tn) in 1966 to 967,569 t (1,066,562 tn) in 1979. The sediment load in 1979 accounted for about 20% of the total load over the 48-year history of the reservoir and 92% of the 1979 sediment load occurred in one 24-hour period during a 1% annual exceedance probability flow event (104-year flood). Nearly 60% of the reservoir sediment load during the 48-year study period occurred in 5 years with extreme flow events (9% to 1% annual exceedance probability, or 11- to 104-year flood events). A substantial portion (41%) of sediment was transported to the reservoir during five storm events spanning only eight 24-hour periods during 1966 to 2013. Annual suspended sediment load estimates based on streamflow were, on average, within ±20% of estimates based on streamflow and turbidity combined. Results demonstrate that large suspended sediment loads are delivered to Cheney Reservoir in very short time periods, indicating that sediment management plans eventually must address large, infrequent inflow events to be effective.

Hydrologic Drought of Water Year 2006 Compared with Four Major Drought Periods of the 20th Century in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.

2008-01-01

Water Year 2006 (October 1, 2005, to September 30, 2006) was a year of extreme hydrologic drought and the driest year in the recent 2002-2006 drought in Oklahoma. The severity of this recent drought can be evaluated by comparing it with four previous major hydrologic droughts, water years 1929-41, 1952-56, 1961-72, and 1976-81. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, completed an investigation to summarize the Water Year 2006 hydrologic drought and compare it to the four previous major hydrologic droughts in the 20th century. The period of water years 1925-2006 was selected as the period of record because before 1925 few continuous record streamflow-gaging sites existed and gaps existed where no streamflow-gaging sites were operated. Statewide annual precipitation in Water Year 2006 was second driest and statewide annual runoff in Water Year 2006 was sixth driest in the 82 years of record. Annual area-averaged precipitation totals by the nine National Weather Service Climate Divisions from Water Year 2006 are compared to those during four previous major hydrologic droughts to show how rainfall deficits in Oklahoma varied by region. Only two of the nine climate divisions, Climate Division 1 Panhandle and Climate Division 4 West Central, had minor rainfall deficits, while the rest of the climate divisions had severe rainfall deficits in Water Year 2006 ranging from only 65 to 73 percent of normal annual precipitation. Regional streamflow patterns for Water Year 2006 indicate that Oklahoma was part of the regionwide below-normal streamflow conditions for Arkansas-White-Red River Basin, the sixth driest since 1930. The percentage of long-term stations in Oklahoma (with at least 30 years of record) having below-normal streamflow reached 80 to 85 percent for some days in August and November 2006. Twelve long-term streamflow-gaging sites with periods of record ranging from 62 to 78 years were selected to show how streamflow deficits varied by region. The hydrologic drought worsened going from north to south in Oklahoma, ranging from 45 percent in the north, to just 14 percent in east-central Oklahoma, and 20 percent of normal annual streamflow in the southwest. The low streamflows resulted in only 86.3 percent of the statewide conservation storage available at the end of the water year in major reservoirs, and 7 to 47 percent of hydroelectric power generation at sites in Oklahoma in Calendar Year 2005.

Streamflow statistics for selected streams in North Dakota, Minnesota, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2012-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for the periods of record through water year 2009 for selected active and discontinued U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in North Dakota, Minnesota, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan were compiled. The summaries for each streamflow-gaging station include a brief station description, a graph of the annual peak and annual mean discharge for the period of record, statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, monthly and annual flow durations, probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Effects of urban best management practices on streamflow and phosphorus and suspended-sediment transport on Englesby Brook in Burlington, Vermont, 2000-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medalie, Laura

2012-01-01

An assessment of the effectiveness of several urban best management practice structures, including a wet extended detention facility and a shallow marsh wetland (together the "wet extended detention ponds"), was made using data collected from 2000 through 2010 at Englesby Brook in Burlington, Vermont. The purpose of the best management practices was to reduce high streamflows and phosphorus and suspended-sediment loads and concentrations and to increase low streamflows. Englesby Brook was monitored for streamflow, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentrations at a streamgage downstream of the best management practice structures for 5 years before the wet extended detention ponds were constructed in 2005 and for 4 years (phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations) or 5 years (streamflow) after they were constructed. The period after construction of the best management practice structures was wetter and had higher discharges than the period before construction. Despite the wetter conditions, streamflow duration curves provided evidence that the streamflow regime appeared to have shifted so that the percentages of low streamflows have increased and those of high streamflows may have slightly decreased. Two other hydrologic measures showed improvements in the years following construction of the best management practices: the percentage of annual discharge transported during the 3 days with highest discharges and the number of days with zero streamflow have both decreased. Evidence was mixed for the effectiveness of the best management practices in reducing phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads. Annual phosphorus and suspended-sediment loads, monthly loads, low-streamflow concentrations, storm-averaged streamflow-adjusted concentrations, and total storm loads either did not change significantly or increased in the period after construction. These results likely were because of the wetter conditions in the period after construction. For example, monthly loads assessed using analysis of covariance, which compensated for the effects of streamflow on loads, suggested no difference in phosphorus or suspended-sediment loads between the two periods, whereas the comparison of monthly loads without factoring in streamflow showed an increase. This result could be viewed as evidence that the ponds may have mitigated the effect of greater discharges in the period after construction by preventing a corresponding increase in loads. In another analysis used to adjust for the difference in discharge between the two comparison periods, annual and monthly load results were grouped into dry and wet years. Large (50 percent) reductions in annual loads were observed when data from dry (or wet) years before construction were compared with data from dry (or wet) years after construction. When paired monthly loads of each constituent were grouped into dry and wet years, approximately the same number of months had increases as did decreases with the magnitudes of the decreases generally larger than the magnitudes of the increases. These differences in magnitude explain the decrease in annual loads for dry and wet years. The close association of phosphorus with suspended-sediment data suggested that most of the phosphorus was in the particulate form and was controlled by suspended-sediment dynamics.

Streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter E in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Peter M.

2016-04-05

Chapter E of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to provide an update of statewide streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana. Streamflow characteristics are presented for 408 streamflow-gaging stations in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high streamflow, the magnitude and probability of low streamflow for three seasons (March–June, July–October, and November–February), streamflow duration statistics for monthly and annual periods, and mean streamflows for monthly and annual periods. Streamflow is considered to be regulated at streamflow-gaging stations where dams or other large-scale human modifications affect 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for streamflow-gaging stations with sufficient data.

A Streamflow Statistics (StreamStats) Web Application for Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Kula, Stephanie P.; Puskas, Barry M.

2006-01-01

A StreamStats Web application was developed for Ohio that implements equations for estimating a variety of streamflow statistics including the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year peak streamflows, mean annual streamflow, mean monthly streamflows, harmonic mean streamflow, and 25th-, 50th-, and 75th-percentile streamflows. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application designed to facilitate the estimation of streamflow statistics at ungaged locations on streams. StreamStats can also serve precomputed streamflow statistics determined from streamflow-gaging station data. The basic structure, use, and limitations of StreamStats are described in this report. To facilitate the level of automation required for Ohio's StreamStats application, the technique used by Koltun (2003)1 for computing main-channel slope was replaced with a new computationally robust technique. The new channel-slope characteristic, referred to as SL10-85, differed from the National Hydrography Data based channel slope values (SL) reported by Koltun (2003)1 by an average of -28.3 percent, with the median change being -13.2 percent. In spite of the differences, the two slope measures are strongly correlated. The change in channel slope values resulting from the change in computational method necessitated revision of the full-model equations for flood-peak discharges originally presented by Koltun (2003)1. Average standard errors of prediction for the revised full-model equations presented in this report increased by a small amount over those reported by Koltun (2003)1, with increases ranging from 0.7 to 0.9 percent. Mean percentage changes in the revised regression and weighted flood-frequency estimates relative to regression and weighted estimates reported by Koltun (2003)1 were small, ranging from -0.72 to -0.25 percent and -0.22 to 0.07 percent, respectively.

Streamflow Characteristics of Streams in the Helmand Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2008-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for all historical streamflow-gaging stations for the Helmand Basin upstream from the Sistan Wetlands are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamflow-gaging station include (1) manuscript (station description), (2) graph of the annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, (4) graph of the annual flow duration, (5) monthly and annual flow duration, (6) probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, (7) probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, (8) probability of occurrence of seasonal low discharges, (9) annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and (10) monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow, eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, A.E.; Dettinger, M.D.; Smith, J. LaRue

1996-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models of the East Fork Carson and North Fork American Rivers were developed and calibrated for use in evaluating the sensitivity of streamflow in the north-central Sierra Nevada to climate change. The East Fork Carson River drains part of the rain-shadowed, eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and is generally higher than the North Fork American River, which drains the wetter, western slope. First, a geographic information system was developed to describe the spatial variability of basin characteristics and to help estimate model parameters. The result was a partitioning of each basin into noncontiguous, but hydrologically uniform, land units. Hydrologic descriptions of these units were developed and the Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate water and energy balances for each unit in response to daily weather conditions. The models were calibrated and verified using historical streamflows over 22-year (Carson River) and 42-year (American River) periods. Simulated annual streamflow errors average plus 10 percent of the observed flow for the East Fork Carson River basin and plus 15 percent for the North Fork American River basin. Interannual variability is well simulated overall, but, at daily scales, wet periods are simulated more accurately than drier periods. The simulated water budgets for the two basins are significantly different in seasonality of streamflow, sublimation, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt. The simulations indicate that differences in snowpack and snowmelt timing can play pervasive roles in determining the sensitivity of water resources to climate change, in terms of both resource availability and amount. The calibrated models were driven by more than 25 hypothetical climate-change scenarios, each 100 years long. The scenarios were synthesized and spatially disaggregated by methods designed to preserve realistic daily, monthly, annual, and spatial statistics. Simulated streamflow timing was not very sensitive to changes in mean precipitation, but was sensitive to changes in mean temperatures. Changes in annual streamflow amounts were amplified reflections of imposed mean precipitation changes, with especially large responses to wetter climates. In contrast, streamflow amount was surprisingly insensitive to mean temperature changes as a result of temporal links between peak snowmelt and the beginning of warm-season evapotranspiration. Comparisons of simulations driven by temporally detailed climate-model changes in which mean temperature changes vary from month to month and simulations in which uniform climate changes were imposed throughout the year indicate that the snowpack accumulates the influences of short-term conditions so that season average climate changes were more important than shorter term changes.

Streamflow statistical summaries for Colorado streams through September 30, 1975: Volume 1: Missouri River, Arkansas River, and Rio Grande Basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petsch, Harold E.

1979-01-01

Statistical summaries of daily streamflow data for 246 stations east of the Continental Divide in Colorado and adjacent States are presented in this report. Duration tables, high-flow sequence tables, and low-flow sequence tables provide information about daily mean discharge. The mean, variance, standard deviation, skewness, and coefficient of variation are provided for monthly and annual flows. Percentages of average flow are provided for monthly flows and first-order serial-correlation coefficients are provided for annual flows. The text explains the nature and derivation of the data and illustrates applications of the tabulated information by examples. The data may be used by agencies and individuals engaged in water studies. (USGS)

Relating road salt to exceedances of the water quality standard for chloride in New Hampshire streams.

PubMed

Trowbridge, Philip R; Kahl, J Steve; Sassan, Dari A; Heath, Douglas L; Walsh, Edward M

2010-07-01

Six watersheds in New Hampshire were studied to determine the effects of road salt on stream water quality. Specific conductance in streams was monitored every 15 min for one year using dataloggers. Chloride concentrations were calculated from specific conductance using empirical relationships. Stream chloride concentrations were directly correlated with development in the watersheds and were inversely related to streamflow. Exceedances of the EPA water quality standard for chloride were detected in the four watersheds with the most development. The number of exceedances during a year was linearly related to the annual average concentration of chloride. Exceedances of the water quality standard were not predicted for streams with annual average concentrations less than 102 mg L(-1). Chloride was imported into three of the watersheds at rates ranging from 45 to 98 Mg Cl km(-2) yr(-1). Ninety-one percent of the chloride imported was road salt for deicing roadways and parking lots. A simple, mass balance equation was shown to predict annual average chloride concentrations from streamflow and chloride import rates to the watershed. This equation, combined with the apparent threshold for exceedances of the water quality standard, can be used for screening-level TMDLs for road salt in impaired watersheds.

Statistical summaries of streamflow in Oklahoma through 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, R.L.

2002-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow records through 1999 for gaging stations in Oklahoma and parts of adjacent states are presented for 188 stations with at least 10 years of streamflow record. Streamflow at 113 of the stations is regulated for specific periods. Data for these periods were analyzed separately to account for changes in streamflow due to regulation by dams or other human modification of streamflow. A brief description of the location, drainage area, and period of record is given for each gaging station. A brief regulation history also is given for stations with a regulated streamflow record. This descriptive information is followed by tables of mean annual discharges, magnitude and probability of exceedance of annual high flows, magnitude and probability of exceedance of annual instantaneous peak flows, durations of daily mean flow, magnitude and probability of non-exceedance of annual low flows, and magnitude and probability of non-exceedance of seasonal low flows.

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin; Rastogi, Deeksha; Gangrade, Sudershan

2018-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. In this study, we evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 138 headwater subbasins located upstream of reservoirs across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. Four commonly used indices, including mean annual flow, annual center timing, 100-year daily high streamflow, and 10-year 7-day average low streamflow were used for evaluation. The results projected an increase in the high streamflow by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States (US) and a decrease in the low streamflow by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western US. In the eastern US, frequencies of both high and low streamflow were projected to increase in the majority of subbasins upstream of both hydropower and flood control reservoirs. Increased frequencies of both high and low streamflow events can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. This study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

Influence of various water quality sampling strategies on load estimates for small streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Roerish, Eric D.

1999-01-01

Extensive streamflow and water quality data from eight small streams were systematically subsampled to represent various water‐quality sampling strategies. The subsampled data were then used to determine the accuracy and precision of annual load estimates generated by means of a regression approach (typically used for big rivers) and to determine the most effective sampling strategy for small streams. Estimation of annual loads by regression was imprecise regardless of the sampling strategy used; for the most effective strategy, median absolute errors were ∼30% based on the load estimated with an integration method and all available data, if a regression approach is used with daily average streamflow. The most effective sampling strategy depends on the length of the study. For 1‐year studies, fixed‐period monthly sampling supplemented by storm chasing was the most effective strategy. For studies of 2 or more years, fixed‐period semimonthly sampling resulted in not only the least biased but also the most precise loads. Additional high‐flow samples, typically collected to help define the relation between high streamflow and high loads, result in imprecise, overestimated annual loads if these samples are consistently collected early in high‐flow events.

Effects of brush management on the hydrologic budget and water quality in and adjacent to Honey Creek State Natural Area, Comal County, Texas, 2001-10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banta, J. Ryan; Slattery, Richard N.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service, the Edwards Region Grazing Lands Conservation Initiative, the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, the San Antonio River Authority, the Edwards Aquifer Authority, Texas Parks and Wildlife, the Guadalupe Blanco River Authority, and the San Antonio Water System, evaluated the hydrologic effects of ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) removal as a brush management conservation practice in and adjacent to the Honey Creek State Natural Area in Comal County, Tex. By removing the ashe juniper and allowing native grasses to reestablish in the area as a brush management conservation practice, the hydrology in the watershed might change. Using a simplified mass balance approach of the hydrologic cycle, the incoming rainfall was distributed to surface water runoff, evapotranspiration, or groundwater recharge. After hydrologic data were collected in adjacent watersheds for 3 years, brush management occurred on the treatment watershed while the reference watershed was left in its original condition. Hydrologic data were collected for another 6 years. Hydrologic data include rainfall, streamflow, evapotranspiration, and water quality. Groundwater recharge was not directly measured but potential groundwater recharge was calculated using a simplified mass balance approach. The resulting hydrologic datasets were examined for differences between the watersheds and between pre- and post-treatment periods to assess the effects of brush management. The streamflow to rainfall relation (expressed as event unit runoff to event rainfall relation) did not change between the watersheds during pre- and post-treatment periods. The daily evapotranspiration rates at the reference watershed and treatment watershed sites exhibited a seasonal cycle during the pre- and post-treatment periods, with intra- and interannual variability. Statistical analyses indicate the mean difference in daily evapotranspiration rates between the two watershed sites is greater during the post-treatment than the pre-treatment period. Average annual rainfall, streamflow, evapotranspiration, and potential groundwater-recharge conditions were incorporated into a single hydrologic budget (expressed as a percentage of the average annual rainfall) applied to each watershed before and after treatment to evaluate the effects of brush management. During the post-treatment period, the percent average annual unit runoff in the reference watershed was similar to that in the treatment watershed, however, the difference in percentages of average annual evapotranspiration and potential groundwater recharge were more appreciable between the reference and treatment watersheds than during the pre-treatment period. Using graphical comparisons, no notable differences in major ion or nutrient concentrations were found between samples collected at the reference watershed (site 1C) and treatment watershed (site 2C) during pre- and post-treatment periods. Suspended-sediment loads were calculated from samples collected at sites 1C and 2T. The relation between suspended-sediment loads and streamflow calculated from samples collected from sites 1C and 2T did not exhibit a statistically significant difference during the pre-treatment period, whereas during the post-treatment period, relation between suspended-sediment loads and streamflow did exhibit a statistically significant difference. The suspended-sediment load to streamflow relations indicate that for the same streamflow, the suspended-sediment loads calculated from site 2T were generally less than suspended-sediment loads calculated from site 1C during the post-treatment period.

Estimated use of water in the United States in 1970

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, Charles Richard; Reeves, E. Bodette

1972-01-01

The average annual streamflow--simplified measure of the total available water supply--is approximately 1,200 bgd in the conterminous United States. Total water withdrawn in 1970 for off-channel uses (withdrawals other than for hydroelectric power) amounted to about 30 percent of the average annual streamflow: 7 percent of the 1,200 bgd basic supply was consumed. However, comparisons of Water Resources Council regions indicate that the rate of withdrawal was higher than the locally dependable supply in the Middle Atlantic, Texas-Gulf, Rio Grande, Lower Colorado, and California-South Pacific regions. Consumption amounted to nearly 25 percent of withdrawals in the conterminous United States; however, fresh-water consumption amounted to only 14 percent of off-channel withdrawals in the 31 Eastern States and ranged from 30 percent to nearly 70 percent of off-channel withdrawals in the Water Resources Council regions in the West. In the Rio Grande and Lower Colorado regions, fresh-water consumption in 1970 exceeded the estimated dependable supply of fresh water.

Water-resources investigations in Wisconsin, 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bruce, Jennifer L.; Greenwood, Michelle M.; Jones, Susan Z.

2004-01-01

The statewide average precipitation for the 2003 water year was 27.42 inches, which was 5.22 inches less than the normal annual precipitation of 32.64 inches for water years 1971–2000. Average precipitation values affecting streamflow conditions ranged from 67 percent in southeast Wisconsin to 99 percent in northeast Wisconsin with a statewide average of 84 percent (summary tables provided by Ed Hopkins, State Climatology Office, University of Wisconsin, Madison, written commun., 2004).

A historical perspective on precipitation, drought severity, and streamflow in Texas during 1951-56 and 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.

2013-01-01

Annual mean streamflow and streamflow-duration curves for the 1951–56 and 2011 water years were assessed for 19 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. At eight of these streamflow-gaging stations, the annual mean streamflow was lower in 2011 than for any year during 1951–56; many of these stations are located in eastern Texas. Annual mean streamflows for streamflow-gaging stations in the Guadalupe, Blanco, and upper Frio River Basins were lower in 1956 than in 2011. The streamflow-duration curves for many streamflow-gaging stations indicate a lack of (or diminished) storm runoff during 2011. Low streamflows (those exceeded 90 to 95 percent of days) were lower for 1956 than for 2011 at seven streamflow-gaging stations. For most of these stations, the lowest of the low streamflows during 1951–56 occurred in 1956. During March to September 2011, record daily lows were measured at USGS streamflow-gaging station 08041500 Village Creek near Kountze, Tex., which has more than 70 years of record. Many other USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas started the 2011 water year with normal streamflow but by the end of the water year were flowing at near-record lows.

Long-term variation analysis of a tropical river's annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyam, Mohammed; Othman, Faridah

2015-07-01

Studying the long-term changes of streamflow is an important tool for enhancing water resource and river system planning, design, and management. The aim of this work is to identify the long-term variations in annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period from 1961 to 2010 in the Selangor River, which is one of the main tropical rivers in Malaysia. Initially, the data underwent preliminary independence, normality, and homogeneity testing using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Shapiro-Wilk and Pettitt's tests, respectively. The work includes a study and analysis of the changes through nine variables describing the annual streamflow and variations in the yearly duration of high and low streamflows. The analyses were conducted via two time scales: yearly and sub-periodic. The sub-periods were obtained by segmenting the 50 years into seven sub-periods by two techniques, namely the change-point test and direct method. Even though analysis revealed nearly negligible changes in mean annual flow over the study period, the maximum annual flow generally increased while the minimum annual flow significantly decreased with respect to time. It was also observed that the variables describing the dispersion in streamflow continually increased with respect to time. An obvious increase was detected in the yearly duration of danger level of streamflow, a slight increase was noted in the yearly duration of warning and alert levels, and a slight decrease in the yearly duration of low streamflow was found. The perceived changes validate the existence of long-term changes in annual streamflow regime, which increase the probability of floods and droughts occurring in future. In light of the results, attention should be drawn to developing water resource management and flood protection plans in order to avert the harmful effects potentially resulting from the expected changes in annual streamflow regime.

Annual peak streamflow and ancillary data for small watersheds in central and western Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.; Asquith, William H.

2011-01-01

Estimates of annual peak-streamflow frequency are needed for flood-plain management, assessment of flood risk, and design of structures, such as roads, bridges, culverts, dams, and levees. Regional regression equations have been developed and are used extensively to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged sites in natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) watersheds in Texas (Asquith and Slade, 1997; Asquith and Thompson, 2008; Asquith and Roussel, 2009). The most recent regional regression equations were developed by using data from 638 Texas streamflow-gaging stations throughout the State with eight or more years of data by using drainage area, channel slope, and mean annual precipitation as predictor variables (Asquith and Roussel, 2009). However, because of a lack of sufficient historical streamflow data from small, rural watersheds in certain parts of the State (central and western), substantial uncertainity exists when using the regional regression equations for the purpose of estimating annual peak-streamflow frequency.

Trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma, 1951–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Daniel M.; Krieger, Joshua D.; Merriman, Katherine R.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) conducted a statistical analysis of trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma for the period 1951–2011. The Mann-Kendall test was used to test for trends in annual and seasonal precipitation, annual and seasonal streamflows of 42 continuous-record USGS streamflow-gaging stations, annual pool elevations and releases from 16 USACE reservoirs, and annual releases from 11 dams on the Arkansas River. A statistically significant (p≤0.10) upward trend was observed in annual precipitation for the State, with a Sen slope of approximately 0.10 inch per year. Autumn and winter were the only seasons that had statistically significant trends in precipitation. Five of six physiographic sections and six of seven 4-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) regions in Arkansas had statistically significant upward trends in autumn precipitation, with Sen slopes of approximately 0.06 to 0.10 inch per year. Sixteen sites had statistically significant upward trends in the annual mean daily streamflow and were located on streams that drained regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation. Expected annual rates of change corresponding to statistically significant trends in annual mean daily streamflows, which ranged from 0.32 to 0.88 percent, were greater than those corresponding to regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation, which ranged from 0.19 to 0.28 percent, suggesting that the observed trends in regional annual precipitation do not fully account for the observed trends in annual mean daily streamflows. Trends in annual maximum daily streamflows were similar to trends in the annual mean daily streamflows but were only statistically significant at seven sites. There were more statistically significant trends (28 of 42 sites) in the annual minimum daily streamflows than in the annual means or maximums. Statistically significant trends in the annual minimum daily streamflows were upward at 18 sites and downward at 10 sites. Despite autumn being the only season that had statistically significant upward trends in seasonal precipitation, statistically significant upward trends in seasonal mean streamflows occurred in every season but spring. Trends in the annual mean, maximum, and minimum daily pool elevations of USACE reservoirs were consistent between metrics for reservoirs in the White, Arkansas, and Ouachita River watersheds, while trends varied between metrics at DeQueen Lake, Millwood Lake, and Lake Chicot. Most of the statistically significant trends in pool elevation metrics were upward and gradual—Sen slopes were less than 0.37 foot per year—and were likely the result of changes in reservoir regulation plans. Trends in the annual mean and maximum daily releases from USACE reservoirs were generally upward in all HUC regions. There were few statistically significant trends in the annual mean daily releases because the reservoirs are operated to maintain a regulation stage at a downstream site according to guidelines set forth in the regulation plans of the reservoirs. The annual number of low-flow days was both increasing and decreasing for reservoirs in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri and generally increasing for reservoirs in southern Arkansas.

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for selected gaging stations on and near the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho, through September 1990

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, M.A.J.; Mann, Larry J.; Kjelstrom, L.C.

1993-01-01

Statistical summaries and graphs of streamflow data were prepared for 13 gaging stations with 5 or more years of continuous record on and near the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Statistical summaries of streamflow data for the Big and Little Lost Rivers and Birch Creek were analyzed as a requisite for a comprehensive evaluation of the potential for flooding of facilities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The type of statistical analyses performed depended on the length of streamflow record for a gaging station. Streamflow statistics generated for stations with 5 to 9 years of record were: (1) magnitudes of monthly and annual flows; (2) duration of daily mean flows; and (3) maximum, median, and minimum daily mean flows. Streamflow statistics generated for stations with 10 or more years of record were: (1) magnitudes of monthly and annual flows; (2) magnitudes and frequencies of daily low, high, instantaneous peak (flood frequency), and annual mean flows; (3) duration of daily mean flows; (4) exceedance probabilities of annual low, high, instantaneous peak, and mean annual flows; (5) maximum, median, and minimum daily mean flows; and (6) annual mean and mean annual flows.

A multiple wavelet coherency method for temporal streamflow-precipitation-temperature relationships in 17 small catchments on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Liu, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and human activities are two critical factors causing the dramatical variations of streamflow in the Yellow River Basin of China during the last several decades. More and more attention has been paid to the temporal relationships of streamflow with precipitation and temperature recently. The objective of the current study was to explore the contributions of precipitation and temperature to the temporal variations of streamflow on the Loess Plateau using a multiple wavelet coherency method. Annual streamflow during 1961-2013 for 17 small catchments were collected from the Yellow River Conservancy Commission and annual precipitation and temperature for each catchment were derived from the meteorological data at the national weather stations across the Loess Plateau through the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. An abrupt decrease was observed in the annual streamflow around year 2000 for any of the 17 catchments investigated, which was believed to be related with the extensive Grain for Green Project. According to bivariate wavelet coherences, however, annual streamflow showed strong temporal variations with annual precipitation at 8 out of the 17 catchments, where the percentage area of significant coherency (PASC) exceeded 50%. Especially in Weihe and Yiluohe catchments, the corresponding PASC were close to 100%, suggesting that annual precipitation change accounted for almost all the temporal streamflow variations. Compared to annual precipitation, the temporal correlation of temperature with streamflow was relatively small, as implied in the lower mean wavelet coherence (MWC) and PASC. Moreover, including temperature in addition to precipitation in the multiple wavelet coherency analysis failed to increase either MWC or PASC in any of the 17 catchments except for Qingjianhe and Qiushuihe catchments. It was indicated that for most catchments on the Loess Plateau, annual temperature was not significantly different from the red noise in explaining the additional variation in streamflow. In view of the small PASC values resulted for most catchments, there existed other environmental and/or anthropogenic factors responsible for the temporal variations of streamflow.

Use of a forest sapwood area index to explain long-term variability in mean annual evapotranspiration and streamflow in moist eucalypt forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benyon, Richard G.; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Jaskierniak, Dominik; Kuczera, George; Haydon, Shane R.

2015-07-01

Mean sapwood thickness, measured in fifteen 73 year old Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis stands, correlated strongly with forest overstorey stocking density (R2 0.72). This curvilinear relationship was used with routine forest stocking density and basal area measurements to estimate sapwood area of the forest overstorey at various times in 15 research catchments in undisturbed and disturbed forests located in the Great Dividing Range, Victoria, Australia. Up to 45 years of annual precipitation and streamflow data available from the 15 catchments were used to examine relationships between mean annual loss (evapotranspiration estimated as mean annual precipitation minus mean annual streamflow), and sapwood area. Catchment mean sapwood area correlated strongly (R2 0.88) with catchment mean annual loss. Variation in sapwood area accounted for 68% more variation in mean annual streamflow than precipitation alone (R2 0.90 compared with R2 0.22). Changes in sapwood area accounted for 96% of the changes in mean annual loss observed after forest thinning or clear-cutting and regeneration. We conclude that forest inventory data can be used reliably to predict spatial and temporal variation in catchment annual losses and streamflow in response to natural and imposed disturbances in even-aged forests. Consequently, recent advances in mapping of sapwood area using airborne light detection and ranging will enable high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of mean annual loss and mean annual streamflow over large areas of forested catchment. This will be particularly beneficial in management of water resources from forested catchments subject to disturbance but lacking reliable long-term (years to decades) streamflow records.

Midwestern streamflow, precipitation, and atmospheric vorticity influenced by Pacific sea-surface temperatures and total solar-irradiance variations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.

2006-01-01

A solar effect on streamflow in the Midwestern United States is described and supported in a six-step physical connection between total solar irradiance (TSI), tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), extratropical SSTs, jet-stream vorticity, surface-layer vorticity, precipitation, and streamflow. Variations in the correlations among the individual steps indicate that the solar/hydroclimatic mechanism is complex and has a time element (lag) that may not be constant. Correct phasing, supported by consistent spectral peaks between 0.092 and 0.096 cycles per year in all data sets within the mechanism is strong evidence for its existence. A significant correlation exists between total solar irradiance and the 3-year moving average of annual streamflow for Iowa (R = 0.67) and for the Mississippi River at St Louis, Missouri (R = 0.60), during the period 1950-2000. Published in 2005 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Selected low-flow frequency statistics for continuous-record streamgages in Georgia, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.

2016-04-13

This report presents the annual and monthly minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with the 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10 and 7Q10) for 197 continuous-record streamgages in Georgia. Streamgages used in the study included active and discontinued stations having a minimum of 10 complete climatic years of record as of September 30, 2013. The 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics were computed for 85 streamgages on unregulated streams with minimal diversions upstream, 43 streamgages on regulated streams, and 69 streamgages known, or considered, to be affected by varying degrees of diversions upstream. Descriptive information for each of these streamgages, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station number, station name, latitude, longitude, county, drainage area, and period of record analyzed also is presented.Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows for the 197 streamgages. Significant negative trends in the minimum annual 1-day and 7-day average streamflow were indicated for 77 of the 197 streamgages. Many of these significant negative trends are due to the period of record ending during one of the recent droughts in Georgia, particularly those streamgages with record through the 2013 water year. Long-term unregulated streamgages with 70 or more years of record indicate significant negative trends in the annual minimum 7-day average flow for central and southern Georgia. Watersheds for some of these streamgages have experienced minimal human impact, thus indicating that the significant negative trends observed in flows at the long-term streamgages may be influenced by changing climatological conditions. A Kendall-tau trend analysis of the annual air temperature and precipitation totals for Georgia indicated no significant trends. A comprehensive analysis of causes of the trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia is outside the scope of this study. Further study is needed to determine some of the causes, including both climatological and human impacts, of the significant negative trends in annual minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia.To assess the changes in the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics over time for long-term continuous streamgages with significant trends in record, the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics were computed on a decadal accumulated basis for 39 streamgages having 40 or more years of record that indicated a significant trend. Records from most of the streamgages showed a decline in 7Q10 statistics for the decades of 1980–89, 1990–99, and 2000–09 because of the recent droughts in Georgia. Twenty four of the 39 streamgages had complete records from 1980 to 2010, and records from 23 of these gages exhibited a decline in the 7Q10 statistics during this period, ranging from –6.3 to –76.2 percent with a mean of –27.3 percent. No attempts were made during this study to adjust streamflow records or statistical analyses on the basis of trends.The monthly and annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics for the entire period of record analyzed in the study are incorporated into the USGS StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for Georgia. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected streamgages.

Summary of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for 712 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Texas through 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Vrabel, Joseph; Roussel, Meghan C.

2007-01-01

Analysts and managers of surface-water resources might have interest in the zero-flow potential for U.S.Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. The USGS, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, initiated a data and reporting process to generate summaries of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for 712 USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. A summary of the percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for most active and inactive, continuous-record gaging stations in Texas provides valuable information by conveying the historical perspective for zero-flow potential for the watershed. The summaries of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for each station are graphically depicted using two thematic perspectives: annual and monthly. The annual perspective consists of graphs of annual percentages of zero streamflow by year with the addition of lines depicting the mean and median annual percentage of zero streamflow. Monotonic trends in the percentages of zero streamflow also are identified using Kendall's T. The monthly perspective consists of graphs of the percentage of zero streamflow by month with lines added to indicate the mean and median monthly percentage of zero streamflow. One or more summaries could be used in a watershed, river basin, or other regional context by analysts and managers of surface-water resources to guide scientific, regulatory, or other inquiries of zero-flow or other low-flow conditions in Texas.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z < -1.96) and an upward trend in annual maximum daily precipitation. Annual and monthly mean flows for most of the months in the Neka basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value < 0.05). Correlation coefficients for Kendall, Spearman's rank and linear regression are 0.43, 0.61, and 0.67, respectively. The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation and streamflow trends showed a downward trend for the mean annual precipitation observed in the upstream part of the study area which is consistent with the streamflow trend. Also, there is a good correlation between monthly and seasonal precipitation and streamflow for all sub-basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

Suspended-sediment loads from major tributaries to the Missouri River between Garrison Dam and Lake Oahe, North Dakota, 1954-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.

2000-01-01

Annual suspended-sediment loads for water years 1954 through 1998 were estimated for the major tributaries in the Missouri River Basin between Garrison Dam and Lake Oahe in North Dakota and for the Missouri River at Garrison Dam and the Missouri River at Bismarck, N. Dak.  The major tributaries are the Knife River, Turtle Creek, Painted Woods Creek, Square Butte Creek, Burnt Creek, Heart River, and Apple Creek.  Sediment and streamflow data used to estimate the suspended-sediment loads were from selected U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations located within each basin.  Some of the stations had no sediment data available and limited continuous streamflow data for water years 1954 through 1998.  Therefore, data from nearby streamflow-gaging stations were assumed for the calculations. The Heart River contributed the largest amount of suspended sediment to the Missouri River for 1954-98.  Annual suspended-sediment loads in the Heart River near Mandan ranged from less than 1 to 40 percent of the annual suspended-sediment load in the Missouri River. The Knife River contributed the second largest amount of suspended sediment to the Missouri River.  Annual suspended-sediment loads in the Knife River at Hazen ranged from less than 1 to 19 percent of the annual suspended-sediment load in the Missouri River.  Apple Creek, Turtle Creek, Painted Woods Creek, Square Butte Creek, and Burnt Creek all contributed 2 percent or less of the annual suspended-sediment load in the Missouri River.  The Knife River and the Heart River also had the largest average suspended-sediment yields for the seven tributaries.  The yield for the Knife River was 91.1 tons per square mile, and the yield for the Heart River was 133 tons per square mile.  The remaining five tributaries had yields of less than 24 tons per square mile based on total drainage area. 

Simulation of streamflow in small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Norris, J.M.

1989-01-01

Coal mining operations in northwestern Colorado commonly are located in areas that have minimal available water-resource information. Drainage-basin models can be a method for extending water-resource information to include periods for which there are no records or to transfer the information to areas that have no streamflow-gaging stations. To evaluate the magnitude and variability of the components of the water balance in the small drainage basins monitored, and to provide some method for transfer of hydrologic data, the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used for small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin to simulate daily mean streamflow using daily precipitation and air-temperature data. The study area was divided into three hydrologic regions, and in each of these regions, three drainage basins were monitored. Two of the drainage basins in each region were used to calibrate the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model was not calibrated for the third drainage basin in each region; instead, parameter values were transferred from the model that was calibrated for the two drainage basins. For all of the drainage basins except one, period of record used for calibration and verification included water years 1976-81. Simulated annual volumes of streamflow for drainage basins used in calibration compared well with observed values; individual hydrographs indicated timing differences between the observed and simulated daily mean streamflow. Observed and simulated annual average streamflows compared well for the periods of record, but values of simulated high and low streamflows were different than observed values. Similar results were obtained when calibrated model parameter values were transferred to drainage basins that were uncalibrated. (USGS)

Statistical Approaches for Spatiotemporal Prediction of Low Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, A.; Haberlandt, U.

2017-12-01

An adequate assessment of regional climate change impacts on streamflow requires the integration of various sources of information and modeling approaches. This study proposes simple statistical tools for inclusion into model ensembles, which are fast and straightforward in their application, yet able to yield accurate streamflow predictions in time and space. Target variables for all approaches are annual low flow indices derived from a data set of 51 records of average daily discharge for northwestern Germany. The models require input of climatic data in the form of meteorological drought indices, derived from observed daily climatic variables, averaged over the streamflow gauges' catchments areas. Four different modeling approaches are analyzed. Basis for all pose multiple linear regression models that estimate low flows as a function of a set of meteorological indices and/or physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors. For the first method, individual regression models are fitted at each station, predicting annual low flow values from a set of annual meteorological indices, which are subsequently regionalized using a set of catchment characteristics. The second method combines temporal and spatial prediction within a single panel data regression model, allowing estimation of annual low flow values from input of both annual meteorological indices and catchment descriptors. The third and fourth methods represent non-stationary low flow frequency analyses and require fitting of regional distribution functions. Method three is subject to a spatiotemporal prediction of an index value, method four to estimation of L-moments that adapt the regional frequency distribution to the at-site conditions. The results show that method two outperforms successive prediction in time and space. Method three also shows a high performance in the near future period, but since it relies on a stationary distribution, its application for prediction of far future changes may be problematic. Spatiotemporal prediction of L-moments appeared highly uncertain for higher-order moments resulting in unrealistic future low flow values. All in all, the results promote an inclusion of simple statistical methods in climate change impact assessment.

Low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Wiegand, Ute

2011-01-01

Low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities (ANEP), called probability-percent chance (P-percent chance) flow estimates, regional regression equations, and transfer methods are provided describing the low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate streamflow data. Analysis of Virginia streamflow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating low-flow characteristics of gaged and ungaged streams. The 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average streamgaging station low-flow characteristics for 290 long-term, continuous-record, streamgaging stations are determined, adjusted for instances of zero flow using a conditional probability adjustment method, and presented for non-exceedance probabilities of 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.05, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.005. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression equations to estimate annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites and are summarized for 290 long-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Regional regression equations for six physiographic regions use basin characteristics to estimate 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted low-flow values that combine computed streamgaging station low-flow characteristics and annual non-exceedance probabilities from regional regression equations provide improved low-flow estimates. Regression equations developed using the Maintenance of Variance with Extension (MOVE.1) method describe the line of organic correlation (LOC) with an appropriate index site for low-flow characteristics at 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Monthly streamflow statistics computed on the individual daily mean streamflows of selected continuous-record streamgaging stations and curves describing flow-duration are presented. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing low-flow estimates, selected low-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, basin characteristics, regression equations, error estimates, definitions, and data sources. This study supersedes previous studies of low flows in Virginia.

Hydraulic Geometry Characteristics of Continuous-Record Streamflow-Gaging Stations on Four Urban Watersheds Along the Main Stem of Gwynns Falls, Baltimore County and Baltimore City, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doheny, Edward J.; Fisher, Gary T.

2007-01-01

Four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations are currently being operated by the U.S. Geological Survey on the main stem of Gwynns Falls in western Baltimore County and Baltimore City, Maryland. The four streamflow-gaging stations drain urban or suburban watersheds with significantly different drainage areas. In addition to providing continuous- record discharge data at these four locations, operation of these stations also provides a long-term record of channel geometry variables such as cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity that are obtained from physical measurement of the discharge at a variety of flow conditions. Hydraulic geometry analyses were performed using discharge-measurement data from four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations on the main stem of Gwynns Falls. Simple linear regression was used to develop relations that (1) quantify changes in cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity with changes in discharge at each station, and (2) quantify changes in these variables in the Gwynns Falls watershed with changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge. Results of the hydraulic geometry analyses indicated that mean velocity is more responsive to changes in discharge than channel width and mean channel depth for all four streamflow-gaging stations on the main stem of Gwynns Falls. For the two largest and most developed watersheds, on Gwynns Falls at Villa Nova, and Gwynns Falls at Washington Boulevard at Baltimore, the slope of the regression lines, or hydraulic exponents, indicated that mean velocity was more responsive to changes in discharge than any of the other hydraulic variables that were analyzed. This was true even when considering changes in cross-sectional area with discharge, which incorporates the combined effects of channel width and mean channel depth. A comparison of hydraulic exponents for Gwynns Falls to average values from previous work indicated that the velocity exponents for all four stations on the Gwynns Falls are larger than the average value of 0.34. For stations 01589300 and 01589352, the exponents for mean velocity are about twice as large as the average value. Analyses of cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity in conjunction with changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge indicated that channel width is much more responsive to changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge than are mean channel depth or mean velocity. Cross-sectional area, which combines the effects of channel width and mean channel depth, was also found to be highly responsive to changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge.

Effect of reforestation on streamflow in central New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, William Joseph; Ayer, Gordon Roundy

1961-01-01

Hydrologic data have been collected since 1932 in central New York State to determine the effect of reforestation on streamflow. Data are available for three small partly reforested areas and for one nonreforested control area. From 35 to 58 percent of the 3 areas were reforested, mostly with species of pine and spruce. The trees were allowed to grow without thinning or cutting, and by 1958 these reforested areas had developed into dense coniferous woodlots. Intensive statistical analyses of the data from the four study areas were made in 1958. Analyses were made for three hydrologic periods: the dormant season represented by the 6-month period ending April 30, the growing season represented by the 6-month period ending October 31, and the year represented by the 12-month period ending April 30. Analyses of the hydrologic data using multiple correlation with time as a variable and analyses of covariance between early and late periods of record indicated that several significant changes had occurred in the streamflow from the partly reforested study areas. Based on correlation with precipitation, total runoff for the dormant season from the 3 study areas was reduced by annual rates of 0.17 to 0.29 inches per year. Based on correlations with streamflow from a control area, total runoff from the partly reforested Shackham Brook area was reduced by average rates of 0.14 inches per growing season, 0.23 inches per dormant season, and 0.36 inches per hydrologic year. Peak discharges on Shackham Brook during the dormant season were reduced by 1958 by an average of 41 percent for the season, with reductions ranging from an average of 66 percent for November to an average of 16 percent for April. No significant changes were found in the peak discharges for the growing season, rates of base-flow recession, volumes of direct runoff, or annual low flows of streams in the three partly reforested areas. The significant reductions in total runoff are attributed to increases in interception and transpiration in the reforested areas. The reductions in peak discharges during the dormant period are attributed largely to increased interception and sublimation of snowfall, and a gradual desynchronization of snowmelt runoff from the wooded and open areas of partly reforested watersheds. The changes in streamflow occurred gradually over the years; it could not be determined from the data whether changes in streamflow were still occurring in 1958, or whether they had reached a maximum.

Streamflow characteristics at hydrologic bench-mark stations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, C.L.

1987-01-01

The Hydrologic Bench-Mark Network was established in the 1960's. Its objectives were to document the hydrologic characteristics of representative undeveloped watersheds nationwide and to provide a comparative base for studying the effects of man on the hydrologic environment. The network, which consists of 57 streamflow gaging stations and one lake-stage station in 39 States, is planned for permanent operation. This interim report describes streamflow characteristics at each bench-mark site and identifies time trends in annual streamflow that have occurred during the data-collection period. The streamflow characteristics presented for each streamflow station are (1) flood and low-flow frequencies, (2) flow duration, (3) annual mean flow, and (4) the serial correlation coefficient for annual mean discharge. In addition, Kendall's tau is computed as an indicator of time trend in annual discharges. The period of record for most stations was 13 to 17 years, although several stations had longer periods of record. The longest period was 65 years for Merced River near Yosemite, Calif. Records of flow at 6 of 57 streamflow sites in the network showed a statistically significant change in annual mean discharge over the period of record, based on computations of Kendall's tau. The values of Kendall's tau ranged from -0.533 to 0.648. An examination of climatological records showed that changes in precipitation were most likely the cause for the change in annual mean discharge.

Rainfall-runoff characteristics and effects of increased urban density on streamflow and infiltration in the eastern part of the San Jacinto River basin, Riverside County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, Joel R.

2002-01-01

To better understand the rainfall-runoff characteristics of the eastern part of the San Jacinto River Basin and to estimate the effects of increased urbanization on streamflow, channel infiltration, and land-surface infiltration, a long-term (1950?98) time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces were simulated using the Hydrologic Simulation Program- FORTRAN (HSPF) rainfall-runoff model. Channel and land-surface infiltration includes rainfall or runoff that infiltrates past the zone of evapotranspiration and may become ground-water recharge. The study area encompasses about 256 square miles of the San Jacinto River drainage basin in Riverside County, California. Daily streamflow (for periods with available data between 1950 and 1998), and daily rainfall and evaporation (1950?98) data; monthly reservoir storage data (1961?98); and estimated mean annual reservoir inflow data (for 1974 conditions) were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (North-South Fork subbasin) for 1950?91 and 1997?98 were 14,000 and 14,200 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.4 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the North-South Fork subbasin was 3,520 and 3,160 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the Bautista Creek streamflow-gaging station (Bautista Creek subbasin) for 1950?98 were 980 acre-feet and 991 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.1 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the Bautista Creek subbasin was 299 and 217 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River above State Street near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (Poppet subbasin) for 1998 were 23,400 and 23,500 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 0.4 percent. The simulated mean annual streamflow for the State Street gaging station at the outlet of the study basin and the simulated mean annual basin infiltration (combined infiltration from all the channels and land surfaces) were 8,720 and 41,600 acre-feet, respectively, for water years 1950-98. Simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station ranged from 16.8 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 70,400 acre-feet in water year 1993, and simulated basin infiltration ranged from 2,770 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 149,000 acre-feet in water year 1983.The effects of increased urbanization on the hydrology of the study basin were evaluated by increasing the size of the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas simulated in the calibrated rainfall-runoff model by 50 and 100 percent, respectively. The rainfall-runoff model simulated a long-term time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces using daily rainfall and potential evaporation data for water years 1950?98. Increasing the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas by 100 percent resulted in a 5-percent increase in simulated mean annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station, and a 2.2-percent increase in simulated basin infiltration. Results of a frequency analysis of the simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station showed that when effective impervious and non-effective impervious areas were increased 100 percent, simulated annual streamflow increased about 100 percent for low-flow conditions and was unchanged for high-flow conditions. The simulated increase in streamflow at the State Street gaging station potentially could infiltrate along the stream channel further downstream, outside of the model area.

Streamflow simulation studies of the Hillsborough, Alafia, and Anclote Rivers, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turner, J.F.

1979-01-01

A modified version of the Georgia Tech Watershed Model was applied for the purpose of flow simulation in three large river basins of west-central Florida. Calibrations were evaluated by comparing the following synthesized and observed data: annual hydrographs for the 1959, 1960, 1973 and 1974 water years, flood hydrographs (maximum daily discharge and flood volume), and long-term annual flood-peak discharges (1950-72). Annual hydrographs, excluding the 1973 water year, were compared using average absolute error in annual runoff and daily flows and correlation coefficients of monthly and daily flows. Correlations coefficients for simulated and observed maximum daily discharges and flood volumes used for calibrating range from 0.91 to 0.98 and average standard errors of estimate range from 18 to 45 percent. Correlation coefficients for simulated and observed annual flood-peak discharges range from 0.60 to 0.74 and average standard errors of estimate range from 33 to 44 percent. (Woodard-USGS)

Streamflow conditions along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-11-14

The availability of adequate water to meet the present (2017) and future needs of humans, fish, and wildlife is a fundamental issue for the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation in northeast Kansas. Because Soldier Creek flows through the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation Reservation, it is an important tribal resource. An understanding of historical Soldier Creek streamflow conditions is required for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages along Soldier Creek were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends by Juracek (2017). Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to compute annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow. Results of the assessment are summarized in this fact sheet.

On the Value of Climate Elasticity Indices to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Projection using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Mehmet; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Changes in two climate elasticity indices, i.e. temperature and precipitation elasticity of streamflow, were investigated using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset as forcing to two hydrologic models. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) hydrologic models, were calibrated at 1/16 degree resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the basin outlet of interest. We estimated precipitation and temperature elasticity of streamflow from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by VIC and SAC-SMA models using observed climate for the current climate (1963-2003); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated climate from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010-2099) including two concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two downscaled climate products (BCSD and MACA). The streamflow sensitivity to long-term (e.g., 30-year) average annual changes in temperature and precipitation is estimated for three periods i.e. 2010-40, 2040-70 and 2070-99. We compared the results of the three cases to reflect on the value of precipitation and temperature indices to assess the climate change impacts on Columbia River streamflow. Moreover, these three cases for two models are used to assess the effects of different uncertainty sources (model forcing, model structure and different pathways) on the two climate elasticity indices.

Analysis of Streamflow Trends, Ground-Water and Surface-Water Interactions, and Water Quality in the Upper Carson River Basin, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, Douglas K.; Paul, Angela P.; Berger, David L.; Mayers, C. Justin

2008-01-01

Changes in land and water use and increasing development of water resources in the Carson River basin may affect flow of the river and, in turn, affect downstream water users dependent on sustained river flows to Lahontan Reservoir. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Churchill County, and the Truckee-Carson Irrigation District, began a study in April 2006 to compile data on changes in land and water use, ground-water levels and pumping, streamflow, and water quality, and to make preliminary analyses of ground-water and surface-water interactions in the Carson River basin upstream of Lahontan Reservoir. The part of the basin upstream of Lahontan Reservoir is called the upper Carson River basin in this report. In 2005, irrigated agricultural land covered about 39,000 acres in Carson Valley, 3,100 acres in Dayton Valley, and 1,200 acres in Churchill Valley. Changes in land use in Carson Valley from the 1970s to 2005 included the development of about 2,700 acres of native phreatophytes, the development of 2,200 acres of irrigated land, 900 acres of land irrigated in the 1970s that appeared fallow in 2005, and the irrigation of about 2,100 acres of new agricultural land. In Dayton and Churchill Valleys, about 1,000 acres of phreatophytes and 900 acres of irrigated land were developed, about 140 acres of phreatophytes were replaced by irrigation, and about 600 acres of land irrigated in the 1970s were not irrigated in 2006. Ground-water pumping in the upper Carson River basin increases during dry years to supplement surface-water irrigation. Total annual pumping exceeded 20,000 acre-ft in the dry year of 1976, exceeded 30,000 acre-ft in the dry years from 1987 to 1992, and increased rapidly during the dry years from 1999 to 2004, and exceeded 50,000 acre-ft in 2004. As many as 67 public supply wells and 46 irrigation wells have been drilled within 0.5 mile of the Carson River. Pumping from these wells has the potential to affect streamflow of the Carson River. It is not certain, however, if all these wells are used currently. Annual streamflow of the Carson River is extremely variable, ranging from a low of about 26,000 acre-ft in 1977 to slightly more than 800,000 acre-ft in 1983 near Fort Churchill. Graphs of the cumulative annual streamflow and differences in the cumulative annual streamflow at Carson River gaging stations upstream and downstream of Carson and Dayton Valleys show an annual decrease in streamflow. The annual decrease in Carson River streamflow averaged about 47,000 acre-ft through Carson Valley, and about 11,000 acre-ft through Dayton Valley for water years 1940-2006. The decrease in streamflow through Carson and Dayton Valleys is a result of evapotranspiration on irrigated lands and losses to ground-water storage, with greater losses in Carson Valley than in Dayton Valley because of the greater area of irrigated land in Carson Valley.

Low-flow characteristics of streams in South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Guimaraes, Wladmir B.

2017-09-22

An ongoing understanding of streamflow characteristics of the rivers and streams in South Carolina is important for the protection and preservation of the State’s water resources. Information concerning the low-flow characteristics of streams is especially important during critical flow periods, such as during the historic droughts that South Carolina has experienced in the past few decades.Between 2008 and 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, updated low-flow statistics at 106 continuous-record streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey for the eight major river basins in South Carolina. The low-flow frequency statistics included the annual minimum 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day mean flows with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50 years, depending on the length of record available at the streamflow-gaging station. Computations of daily mean flow durations for the 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 75-, 90-, and 95-percent probability of exceedance also were included.This report summarizes the findings from publications generated during the 2008 to 2016 investigations. Trend analyses for the annual minimum 7-day average flows are provided as well as trend assessments of long-term annual precipitation data. Statewide variability in the annual minimum 7-day average flow is assessed at eight long-term (record lengths from 55 to 78 years) streamgages. If previous low-flow statistics were available, comparisons with the updated annual minimum 7-day average flow, having a 10-year recurrence interval, were made. In addition, methods for estimating low-flow statistics at ungaged locations near a gaged location are described.

Statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.; O'Shea, Padraic S.; Weber, Jared R.; Nguyen, Kevin T.; Montgomery, Nicholas L.; Simonson, Adrian J.

2016-01-04

Statistical summaries of streamflow data collected at 184 streamgages in Iowa are presented in this report. All streamgages included for analysis have at least 10 years of continuous record collected before or through September 2013. This report is an update to two previously published reports that presented statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 1988 and September 1996. The statistical summaries include (1) monthly and annual flow durations, (2) annual exceedance probabilities of instantaneous peak discharges (flood frequencies), (3) annual exceedance probabilities of high discharges, and (4) annual nonexceedance probabilities of low discharges and seasonal low discharges. Also presented for each streamgage are graphs of the annual mean discharges, mean annual mean discharges, 50-percent annual flow-duration discharges (median flows), harmonic mean flows, mean daily mean discharges, and flow-duration curves. Two sets of statistical summaries are presented for each streamgage, which include (1) long-term statistics for the entire period of streamflow record and (2) recent-term statistics for or during the 30-year period of record from 1984 to 2013. The recent-term statistics are only calculated for streamgages with streamflow records pre-dating the 1984 water year and with at least 10 years of record during 1984–2013. The streamflow statistics in this report are not adjusted for the effects of water use; although some of this water is used consumptively, most of it is returned to the streams.

Vegetation regulation on streamflow intra-annual variability through adaption to climate variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Li, Shuai

2015-12-16

This study aims to provide a mechanistic explanation of the empirical patterns of streamflow intra-annual variability revealed by watershed-scale hydrological data across the contiguous United States. A mathematical extension of the Budyko formula with explicit account for the soil moisture storage change is used to show that, in catchments with a strong seasonal coupling between precipitation and potential evaporation, climate aridity has a dominant control on intra-annual streamflow variability, but in other catchments, additional factors related to soil water storage change also have important controls on how precipitation seasonality propagates to streamflow. More importantly, use of leaf area index asmore » a direct and indirect indicator of the above ground biomass and plant root system, respectively, reveals the vital role of vegetation in regulating soil moisture storage and hence streamflow intra-annual variability under different climate conditions.« less

The influence of climate, topography and land-use on the hydrology of ephemeral upland catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, E.; Webb, J.; Dresel, E.

2016-12-01

We report on an on-going project aimed at determining the effects of climate variability and land use change on water resources in ephemeral productive catchments. Meteorological data (including rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, humidity and wind speed), streamflow and groundwater levels were collected continuously for over five years in seven ephemeral catchments in southeastern Australia. The catchments, dominated by either pasture for grazing (four) or Eucalyptus globulus (blue gum) plantations of different ages (three), were located in three different geological settings. Rainfall varied from higher than the long-term average of this area for the initial years of the study period to much drier than the long-term average for the last two years. Groundwater levels in the farm sites remained stable or slightly increased through the study period, while levels declined in all the plantation catchments, where evapotranspiration rates were greater than rainfall. The trees intercept groundwater recharge and in some areas of the catchments directly access groundwater. Streamflow occurred mainly during winter, with short-term flows in summer caused by sporadic large rainfall events. Despite the large annual rainfall variability, flow rates in each year were similar in most catchments, with the duration of flow being important in determining the annual flow. The frequency rather than the amount of rainfall events determines the generation of streamflow in the two catchments with steeper slopes. The effect of the tree plantations on streamflow varied from a substantial reduction in one catchment to no effect in another, where the tree rows are oriented predominantly downslope, allowing greater runoff. In the third plantation catchment, geology is the main driver of runoff due to capture into underlying karst conduits.

Historical changes in annual peak flows in Maine and implications for flood-frequency analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2010-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges, culverts, and other structures that are in or near streams (fig. 1 for example), it is necessary to determine the magnitude of peak streamflows such as the 100-year flow. Flood-frequency analyses use statistical methods to compute peak flows for selected recurrence intervals (100 years, for example). The recurrence interval is the average number of years between peak flows that are equal to or greater than a specified peak flow. Floodfrequency analyses are based on annual peak flows at a stream. It has long been assumed that annual peak streamflows are stationary over very long periods of time, except in river basins subject to urbanization, regulation, and other direct human activities. Stationarity is the concept that natural systems fluctuate within an envelope of variability that does not change over time (Milly and others, 2008). Because of the potential effects of global warming on peak flows, the assumption of peak-flow stationarity has recently been questioned (Milly and others, 2008). Maine has many streamgaging stations with 50 to 105 years of recorded annual peak streamflows. This long-term record has been tested for historical flood-frequency stationarity, to provide some insight into future flood frequency (Hodgkins, 2010). This fact sheet, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), provides a partial summary of the results of the study by Hodgkins (2010).

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Response of stream benthic macroinvertebrates to current water management in Alpine catchments massively developed for hydropower.

PubMed

Quadroni, Silvia; Crosa, Giuseppe; Gentili, Gaetano; Espa, Paolo

2017-12-31

The present work focuses on evaluating the ecological effects of hydropower-induced streamflow alteration within four catchments in the central Italian Alps. Downstream from the water diversions, minimum flows are released as an environmental protection measure, ranging approximately from 5 to 10% of the mean annual natural flow estimated at the intake section. Benthic macroinvertebrates as well as daily averaged streamflow were monitored for five years at twenty regulated stream reaches, and possible relationships between benthos-based stream quality metrics and environmental variables were investigated. Despite the non-negligible inter-site differences in basic streamflow metrics, benthic macroinvertebrate communities were generally dominated by few highly resilient taxa. The highest level of diversity was detected at sites where upstream minimum flow exceedance is higher and further anthropogenic pressures (other than hydropower) are lower. However, according to the current Italian normative index, the ecological quality was good/high on average at all of the investigated reaches, thus complying the Water Framework Directive standards. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Low-head hydropower assessment of the Brazilian State of São Paulo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artan, Guleid A.; Cushing, W. Matthew; Mathis, Melissa L.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2014-01-01

This study produced a comprehensive estimate of the magnitude of hydropower potential available in the streams that drain watersheds entirely within the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Because a large part of the contributing area is outside of São Paulo, the main stem of the Paraná River was excluded from the assessment. Potential head drops were calculated from the Digital Terrain Elevation Data,which has a 1-arc-second resolution (approximately 30-meter resolution at the equator). For the conditioning and validation of synthetic stream channels derived from the Digital Elevation Model datasets, hydrography data (in digital format) supplied by the São Paulo State Department of Energy and the Agência Nacional de Águas were used. Within the study area there were 1,424 rain gages and 123 streamgages with long-term data records. To estimate average yearly streamflow, a hydrologic regionalization system that divides the State into 21 homogeneous basins was used. Stream segments, upstream areas, and mean annual rainfall were estimated using geographic information systems techniques. The accuracy of the flows estimated with the regionalization models was validated. Overall, simulated streamflows were significantly correlated with the observed flows but with a consistent underestimation bias. When the annual mean flows from the regionalization models were adjusted upward by 10 percent, average streamflow estimation bias was reduced from -13 percent to -4 percent. The sum of all the validated stream reach mean annual hydropower potentials in the 21 basins is 7,000 megawatts (MW). Hydropower potential is mainly concentrated near the Serra do Mar mountain range and along the Tietê River. The power potential along the Tietê River is mainly at sites with medium and high potentials, sites where hydropower has already been harnessed. In addition to the annual mean hydropower estimates, potential hydropower estimates with flow rates with exceedance probabilities of 40 percent, 60 percent, and 90 percent were made.

Estimation of upstream water use with Ohio’s StreamStats application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Nardi, Mark R.; Shaffer, Kimberly H.

2016-06-24

Temporary water-use registrations for hydraulic fracturing are tabulated separately from the other water uses. Water-use indices are computed by dividing average annual net withdrawals (with and without temporary registrations) by the mean October streamflow estimated with StreamStats. The water-use indices are intended to provide metrics of potential consumptive water use.

Flood of June 11, 2010, in the Upper Little Missouri River watershed, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Wagner, Daniel M.

2011-01-01

Catastrophic flash flooding occurred in the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, in the upper Little Missouri River and tributary streams in southwest Arkansas. The flooding, which resulted in 20 fatalities and substantial property damage, was caused by as much as 4.7 inches of rain falling in the upper Little Missouri River watershed in 3 hours. The 4.7 inches of rain in 3 hours corresponds to estimated annual exceedance probability of approximately 2 percent for a 3-hour duration storm. The maximum total estimated rainfall in the upper Missouri River watershed was 5.3 inches in 6 hours. Peak streamflows and other hydraulic properties were determined at five ungaged locations and one gaged location in the upper Little Missouri River watershed.The peak streamflow for the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike, Arkansas was 40,100 cubic feet per second, estimated to have occurred between 4:00 AM and 4:30 AM the morning of June 11, 2010. The peak streamflow resulted in average water depths in the nearby floodplain (Area C of the Albert Pike Campground) of 7 feet flowing at velocities potentially as great as 11 feet per second. Peak streamflow 9.1 miles downstream on the Little Missouri at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage near Langley, Arkansas was 70,800 cubic feet per second, which corresponds to an estimated annual exceedance probability of less than 1 percent.

Effects of snow persistence on streamflow generation in mountain regions of the western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, J. C.; Kampf, S. K.

2015-12-01

In mountain regions, both snowpack trend analyses and modeling studies suggest that streamflow generation is sensitive to loss of snow, yet we still lack understanding of where the most snow-sensitive regions are located. Snow persistence (SP), defined as the fraction of year that an area is snow-covered, is a useful variable for identifying snow-sensitive regions because it is easily observed globally using remote sensing. SP can affect streamflow generation by shifting the timing and magnitude of water input. All other factors being equal, we hypothesize that declining SP decreases the ratio of streamflow to precipitation (runoff ratio), and the magnitude of this effect is greater in arid climates than in humid climates. To evaluate whether streamflow generation declines with decreasing SP, we used the MODSCAG fractional snow cover product and 68 USGS reference catchments across five mountainous regions of the Western U.S. to compute annual and mean annual SP and discharge for water years 2000 to 2011. We used PRISM precipitation to compute the annual and mean annual runoff ratio for each catchment. Results show strong positive relationships between annual SP and annual runoff ratio in the Northern Rockies, Southern Rockies, and Basin and Range, where annual precipitation ranges from 0.25 m at low elevations in the Basin and Range to 2.5 m at high elevations in the Northern Rockies. Mean annual runoff ratios for these regions range from 0.32-0.53, and they also increase with mean annual SP. No relationships between annual SP and runoff ratios are evident in the wetter North Cascades and Sierra Nevada ranges, where annual precipitation ranges from 0.44 m in the low elevation Sierras to 4.8 m in the high elevation Cascades. Mean annual runoff ratios for these regions are 0.53-0.87 and show no clear dependence on SP. These results suggest that streamflow generation in arid regions may be most sensitive to loss of persistent winter snow.

Hydraulic-Geometry Relations for Rivers in Coastal and Central Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.

2004-01-01

Hydraulic-geometry relations (curves) were derived for 15 sites on 12 rivers in coastal and central Maine on the basis of site-specific (at-a-station) hydraulic-geometry relations and hydraulic models. At-a-station hydraulic-geometry curves, expressed as well-established power functions, describe the relations between channel geometry, velocity, and flow at a given point on a river. The derived at-a-station hydraulic-geometry curves indicate that, on average, a given increase in flow at a given river cross section in the study area will be nearly equally conveyed by increases in velocity and channel cross-sectional area. Regional curves describing the bankfull streamflow and associated channel geometry as functions of drainage area were derived for use in stream-channel assessment and restoration projects specific to coastal and central Maine. Regional hydraulic-geometry curves were derived by combining hydraulic-geometry information for 15 river cross sections using bankfull flow as the common reference streamflow. The exponents of the derived regional hydraulic-geometry relations indicate that, in the downstream direction, most of the conveyance of increasing contribution of flow is accommodated by an increase in cross-sectional area?with about 50 percent of the increase in flow accommodated by an increase in channel width, and 32 percent by an increase in depth. The remaining 18 percent is accommodated by an increase in streamflow velocity. On an annual-peak-series basis, results of this study indicate that the occurrence of bankfull streamflow for rivers in Maine is more frequent than the 1.5-year streamflow. On a flow-duration basis, bankfull streamflow for rivers in coastal and central Maine is equaled or exceeded approximately 8.1 percent of the time on mean?or about 30 days a year. Bankfull streamflow is roughly three times that of the mean annual streamflow for the sites investigated in this study. Regional climate, snowmelt hydrology, and glacial geology may play important roles in dictating the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of bankfull streamflows observed for rivers in coastal and central Maine.

Changes in biological communities of the Fountain Creek Basin, Colorado, 2003–2016, in relation to antecedent streamflow, water quality, and habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Bruce, James F.; Zuellig, Robert E.

2018-01-08

The analysis described in this report is part of a longterm project monitoring the biological communities, habitat, and water quality of the Fountain Creek Basin. Biology, habitat, and water-quality data have been collected at 10 sites since 2003. These data include annual samples of aquatic invertebrate communities, fish communities, water quality, and quantitative riverine habitat. This report examines trends in biological communities from 2003 to 2016 and explores relationships between biological communities and abiotic variables (antecedent streamflow, physical habitat, and water quality). Six biological metrics (three invertebrate and three fish) and four individual fish species were used to examine trends in these data and how streamflow, habitat, and (or) water quality may explain these trends. The analysis of 79 trends shows that the majority of significant trends decreased over the trend period. Overall, 19 trends before adjustments for streamflow in the fish (12) and invertebrate (7) metrics were all decreasing except for the metric Invertebrate Species Richness at the most upstream site in Monument Creek. Seven of these trends were explained by streamflow and four trends were revealed that were originally masked by variability in antecedent streamflow. Only two sites (Jimmy Camp Creek at Fountain, CO and Fountain Creek near Pinon, CO) had no trends in the fish or invertebrate metrics. Ten of the streamflow-adjusted trends were explained by habitat, one was explained by water quality, and five were not explained by any of the variables that were tested. Overall, from 2003 to 2016, all the fish metric trends were decreasing with an average decline of 40 percent, and invertebrate metrics decreased on average by 9.5 percent. A potential peak streamflow threshold was identified above which there is severely limited production of age-0 flathead chub (Platygobio gracilis).

Predictors of High Streamflow Events in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, C.

2016-12-01

The Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in Western North America, and is home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in June-July. However, while annual peak daily streamflow (APDF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APDF in below- or near-normal SWEmax years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APDFs complicates future projections of streamflow magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by both observations and an ensemble of CMIP3 climate models in an attempt to discover the proximate causes of anomalous APDF events in the FRB. At several hydrometric stations representing a range of elevations, the relative importance of a set of predictors characterizing the magnitude and timing of rainfall, snowfall, and temperature is examined within a regression framework. The results indicate that next to the magnitude of SWEmax, the rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax is the most influential variable for predicting APDF magnitudes in the lower FRB. Finally, the role of large-scale climate modes of variability for APDF magnitude and timing in the basin will be briefly discussed.

Water quality, streamflow conditions, and annual flow-duration curves for streams of the San Juan–Chama Project, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, 1935-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falk, Sarah E.; Anderholm, Scott K.; Hafich, Katya A.

2013-01-01

The Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority supplements the municipal water supply for the Albuquerque metropolitan area, in central New Mexico, with water diverted from the Rio Grande. Water diverted from the Rio Grande for municipal use is derived from the San Juan–Chama Project, which delivers water from streams in the southern San Juan Mountains in the Colorado River Basin in southern Colorado to the Rio Chama watershed and the Rio Grande Basin in northern New Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, has compiled historical streamflow and water-quality data and collected new water-quality data to characterize the water quality and streamflow conditions and annual flow variability, as characterized by annual flow-duration curves, of streams of the San Juan–Chama Project. Nonparametric statistical methods were applied to calculate annual and monthly summary statistics of streamflow, trends in streamflow conditions were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall trend test, and annual variation in streamflow conditions was evaluated with annual flow-duration curves. The study area is located in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado and includes the Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River, tributaries of the San Juan River in the Colorado River Basin located in the southern San Juan Mountains, and Willow Creek and Horse Lake Creek, tributaries of the Rio Chama in the Rio Grande Basin. The quality of water in the streams in the study area generally varied by watershed on the basis of the underlying geology and the volume and source of the streamflow. Water from the Rio Blanco and Little Navajo River watersheds, primarily underlain by volcanic deposits, volcaniclastic sediments and landslide deposits derived from these materials, was compositionally similar and had low specific-conductance values relative to the other streams in the study area. Water from the Navajo River, Horse Lake Creek, and Willow Creek watersheds, which are underlain mostly by Cretaceous-aged marine shale, was compositionally similar and had large concentrations of sulfate relative to the other streams in the study area, though the water from the Navajo River had lower specific-conductance values than did the water from Horse Lake Creek above Heron Reservoir and Willow Creek above Azotea Creek. Generally, surface-water quality varied with streamflow conditions throughout the year. Streamflow in spring and summer is generally a mixture of base flow (the component of streamflow derived from groundwater discharged to the stream channel) diluted with runoff from snowmelt and precipitation events, whereas streamflow in fall and winter is generally solely base flow. Major- and trace-element concentrations in the streams sampled were lower than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary and secondary drinking-water standards and New Mexico Environment Department surface-water standards for the streams. In general, years with increased annual discharge, compared to years with decreased annual discharge, had a smaller percentage of discharge in March, a larger percentage of discharge in June, an interval of discharge derived from snowmelt runoff that occurred later in the year, and a larger discharge in June. Additionally, years with increased annual discharge generally had a longer duration of runoff, and the streamflow indicators occurred at dates later in the year than the years with less snowmelt runoff. Additionally, the seasonal distribution of streamflow was more strongly controlled by the change in the amount of annual discharge than by changes in streamflow over time. The variation of streamflow conditions over time at one streamflow-gaging station in the study area, Navajo River at Banded Peak Ranch, was not significantly monotonic over the period of record with a Kendall’s tau of 0.0426 and with a p-value of 0.5938 for 1937 to 2009 (a trend was considered statistically significant at a p-value ≤ 0.05). There was a relation, however, such that annual discharge was generally lower than the median during a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation interval and higher than the median during a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation interval. Streamflow conditions at Navajo River at Banded Peak Ranch varied nonmonotonically over time and were likely a function of complex climate pattern interactions. Similarly, the monthly distribution of streamflow varied nonmonotonically over time and was likely a function of complex climate pattern interactions that cause variation over time. Study results indicated that the median of the sum of the streamflow available above the minimum monthly bypass requirement from Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River was 126,240 acre-feet. The results also indicated that diversion of water for the San Juan–Chama Project has been possible for most months of most years.

Digital simulation of the effects of urbanization on runoff in the upper Santa Ana Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Durbin, Timothy J.

1974-01-01

The Stanford Watershed Model was used to simulate the effects of urbanization on the discharge from five drainage basins in the upper Santa Ana Valley, an area with an average annual precipitation of 15 inches. The drainage basins ranged in size from 3.72 to 83.4 square miles. Using the model, synthetic records of streamflow for each basin were generated to represent various degrees of urban development. Examination of the synthetic records indicated that urbanization has the following effects on streamflow in the area:Average annual runoff from a drainage basin with an effective impervious area of 10 percent of the drainage area is approximately 2 inches, and increases by 1 inch for each increase in effective impervious cover equal to 10 percent of the drainage area. About 30 percent of a fully urbanized area is effectively impervious.Urbanization can increase the magnitude of peak discharge and daily mean discharge with a recurrence interval of 2 years by a factor of three to six.Peak discharges and daily mean discharges that have recurrence intervals greater than a limiting value ranging from 50 to 200 years or more are little affected by urbanization.

Joint pattern of seasonal hydrological droughts and floods alternation in China's Huai River Basin using the multivariate L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, ShaoFei; Zhang, Xiang; She, DunXian

2017-06-01

Under the current condition of climate change, droughts and floods occur more frequently, and events in which flooding occurs after a prolonged drought or a drought occurs after an extreme flood may have a more severe impact on natural systems and human lives. This challenges the traditional approach wherein droughts and floods are considered separately, which may largely underestimate the risk of the disasters. In our study, the sudden alternation of droughts and flood events (ADFEs) between adjacent seasons is studied using the multivariate L-moments theory and the bivariate copula functions in the Huai River Basin (HRB) of China with monthly streamflow data at 32 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2012. The dry and wet conditions are characterized by the standardized streamflow index (SSI) at a 3-month time scale. The results show that: (1) The summer streamflow makes the largest contribution to the annual streamflow, followed by the autumn streamflow and spring streamflow. (2) The entire study area can be divided into five homogeneous sub-regions using the multivariate regional homogeneity test. The generalized logistic distribution (GLO) and log-normal distribution (LN3) are acceptable to be the optimal marginal distributions under most conditions, and the Frank copula is more appropriate for spring-summer and summer-autumn SSI series. Continuous flood events dominate at most sites both in spring-summer and summer-autumn (with an average frequency of 13.78% and 17.06%, respectively), while continuous drought events come second (with an average frequency of 11.27% and 13.79%, respectively). Moreover, seasonal ADFEs most probably occurred near the mainstream of HRB, and drought and flood events are more likely to occur in summer-autumn than in spring-summer.

Value of long-term streamflow forecast to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated catchments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anghileri, Daniela; Voisin, Nathalie; Castelletti, Andrea F.

In this study, we develop a forecast-based adaptive control framework for Oroville reservoir, California, to assess the value of seasonal and inter-annual forecasts for reservoir operation.We use an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to generate retrospective, one-year-long streamflow forecasts based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology model. The optimal sequence of daily release decisions from the reservoir is then determined by Model Predictive Control, a flexible and adaptive optimization scheme.We assess the forecast value by comparing system performance based on the ESP forecasts with that based on climatology and a perfect forecast. In addition, we evaluate system performance based onmore » a synthetic forecast, which is designed to isolate the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual forecast skill to the overall value of the ESP forecasts.Using the same ESP forecasts, we generalize our results by evaluating forecast value as a function of forecast skill, reservoir features, and demand. Our results show that perfect forecasts are valuable when the water demand is high and the reservoir is sufficiently large to allow for annual carry-over. Conversely, ESP forecast value is highest when the reservoir can shift water on a seasonal basis.On average, for the system evaluated here, the overall ESP value is 35% less than the perfect forecast value. The inter-annual component of the ESP forecast contributes 20-60% of the total forecast value. Improvements in the seasonal component of the ESP forecast would increase the overall ESP forecast value between 15 and 20%.« less

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow of Major Ethiopian Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gizaw, M. S.; Zhang, S.; Biftu, G. F.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.; Moges, S. A.; Koivusalo, H.

2017-12-01

In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971-2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 ˚C (3.3 ˚C) in 2050s (2080s) whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia's complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections.

Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2006-01-01

Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the historical record is not valid. For multiple-reservoir systems, the firm-yield estimate was dependent on the reservoir system's configuration. The firm yield of a system is sensitive to how the water is transferred from one reservoir to another, the capacity of the connection between the reservoirs, and how seasonal variations in demand are represented in the FYE model. Firm yields for 25 (14 single-reservoir systems and 11 multiple-reservoir systems) reservoir systems were determined by using the historical records of streamflow and precipitation. Current water-use data indicate that, on average, 20 of the 25 reservoir systems in the study were operating below their estimated firm yield; during months with peak demands, withdrawals exceeded the firm yield for 8 reservoir systems.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Haj, Adel E.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.

2016-01-01

Study regionEastern and central Montana.Study focusFish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period).New hydrological insights for the regionProjected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Surface waters of North Boggy Creek basin in the Muddy Boggy Creek basin in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.

1958-01-01

Analysis of short-term streamflow data in North Boggy Creek basin indicates that the average runoff in this region is substantial. The streamflow is highly variable from year to year and from month to month. The estimated total yield from the North Boggy Creek watershed of 231 square miles averages 155,000 acre-feet annually, equivalent to an average runoff depth of 12 1/2 inches. Almost a fourth of the annual volume is contributed by Chickasaw Creek basin, where about 35,000 acre-feet runs off from 46 square miles. Two years of records show a variation in runoff for the calendar year 1957 in comparison to 1956 in a ratio of 13 to 1 for the station on North Boggy Creek and a ratio of 18 to 1 for the station on Chickasaw Creek. In a longer-term record downstream on Muddy Boggy Creek near Farris, the corresponding range was 17 to 1, while the calendar years 1945 and 1956 show a 20-fold variation in runoff. Within a year the higher runoff tends to occur in the spring months, April to June, a 3-month period that, on the average, accounts for at least half of the annual flow. High runoff may occur during any month in the year, but in general, the streamflow is relatively small in the summer. Records for the gaging stations noted indicate that there is little or no base flow in the summer, and thus there will be periods of no flow at times in most years. The variation in runoff during a year is suggested by a frequency analysis of low flows at the reference station on Muddy Boggy Creek near Farris. Although the mean flow at that site is 955 cfs (cubic feet per second), the median daily flow is only 59 cfs and the lowest 30-day flow in a year will average less than 1 cfs in 4 out of 10 years on the average. The estimated mean flow on North Boggy Creek near Stringtown is 124 cfs, but the estimated median daily flow is only 3 1/2 cfs. Because of the high variability in streamflow, development of storage by impoundment will be necessary to attain maximum utilization of the available water supplies in this region. The surface waters of the North Boggy Creek basin are of excellent quality, being suitable for municipal, agricultural and most industrial uses. The concentration of the dissolved mineral content is usually about 75 ppm (parts per million) and the hardness about 50 ppm. The water is slightly acidic, with a range of pH values from 6.5 to 7.0. This report gives the estimated average discharge at gaging stations and 3 selected other sites in the basin for the 16-year period October 1938 to September 1954, used as a base period in this report. Duration-of-flow data for selected percentages of the time are shown for the period of observed record on North Boggy and Chickasaw Creeks; similar data are estimated for the base period 1938-54. The basic records in the basin are presented on a monthly and annual basis (through March 1958). For other sites at which discharge measurements have been made, a tabulation of observed discharge is given. These data have been correlated to obtain information on the low-water portion of the duration curves at 2 of the sites. (available as photostat copy only)

Trends in selected streamflow statistics at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico, 1922-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Trends in selected streamflow statistics during 1922-2009 were evaluated at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations considered indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated streamflow data from streamflow-gaging stations with more than 50 years of record that were active as of 2009. The outflows into Arkansas and Louisiana were represented by 3 streamflow-gaging stations, and outflows into the Gulf of Mexico, including Galveston Bay, were represented by 16 streamflow-gaging stations. Monotonic trend analyses were done using the following three streamflow statistics generated from daily mean values of streamflow: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual maximum daily discharge, and (3) annual minimum daily discharge. The trend analyses were based on the nonparametric Kendall's Tau test, which is useful for the detection of monotonic upward or downward trends with time. A total of 69 trend analyses by Kendall's Tau were computed - 19 periods of streamflow multiplied by the 3 streamflow statistics plus 12 additional trend analyses because the periods of record for 2 streamflow-gaging stations were divided into periods representing pre- and post-reservoir impoundment. Unless otherwise described, each trend analysis used the entire period of record for each streamflow-gaging station. The monotonic trend analysis detected 11 statistically significant downward trends, 37 instances of no trend, and 21 statistically significant upward trends. One general region studied, which seemingly has relatively more upward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed, includes the rivers and associated creeks and bayous to Galveston Bay in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, the most western river basins considered (the Nueces and Rio Grande) had statistically significant downward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed.

Stream gage descriptions and streamflow statistics for sites in the Tigris River and Euphrates River Basins, Iraq

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saleh, Dina K.

2010-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for all long-term streamflow-gaging stations in the Tigris River and Euphrates River Basins in Iraq are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamflow-gaging station include (1) a station description, (2) a graph showing annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) a table of extremes and statistics for monthly and annual mean discharge, (4) a graph showing monthly maximum, minimum, and mean discharge, (5) a table of monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record, (6) a graph showing annual flow duration, (7) a table of monthly and annual flow duration, (8) a table of high-flow frequency data (maximum mean discharge for 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day periods for selected exceedance probabilities), and (9) a table of low-flow frequency data (minimum mean discharge for 3-, 7-, 15-, 30-, 60-, 90-, and 183-day periods for selected non-exceedance probabilities).

Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.

2018-01-01

The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing groundwater infiltration into sewers. The impacts of urbanization on streamflow within the metropolitan area have undoubtedly been felt by a wide of range of communities.

Water-level declines in the Madison area, Dane County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLeod, R.S.

1978-01-01

The effects of anticipated pumping were examined with the use of a digital model. The maximum water-level decline from the beginning of pumping in 1882 until 1975 was about 75 feet in the sandstone aquifer and 10 to 20 feet in the upper aquifer. Additional declines between 1975 and 2000 were computed to be 10 to 30 feet in the sandstone aquifer and 5 to 10 feet in the upper aquifer. The average annual streamflow of the Yahara River at the McFarland gaging station was reduced 32 percent from the beginning of pumping to 1975. An additional 7 percent reduction in streamflow was computed for the period 1975 to 2000.

Geographic, geologic, and hydrologic summaries of intermontane basins of the northern Rocky Mountains, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendy, Eloise; Tresch, R.E.

1996-01-01

This report combines a literature review with new information to provide summaries of the geography, geology, and hydrology of each of 32 intermontane basins in western Montana. The summary of each intermontane basin includes concise descriptions of topography, areal extent, altitude, climate, 1990 population, land and water use, geology, surface water, aquifer hydraulic characteristics, ground-water flow, and ground-water quality. If present, geothermal features are described. Average annual and monthly temperature and precipitation are reported from one National Weather Service station in each basin. Streamflow data, including the drainage area, period of record, and average, minimum, and maximum historical streamflow, are reported for all active and discontinued USGS streamflow-gaging stations in each basin. Monitoring-well data, including the well depth, aquifer, period of record, and minimum and maximum historical water levels, are reported for all long-term USGS monitoring wells in each basin. Brief descriptions of geologic, geophysical, and potentiometric- surface maps available for each basin also are included. The summary for each basin also includes a bibliography of hydrogeologic literature. When used alone or in conjunction with regional RASA reports, this report provides a practical starting point for site-specific hydrogeologic investigations.

Climate and streamflow characteristics for selected streamgages in eastern South Dakota, water years 1945–2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoogestraat, Galen K.; Stamm, John F.

2015-11-02

For the streamgages with significant trends in residual streamflow (such as the streamgage on the Whetstone River and streamgages in the Big Sioux River Basin), land-use changes likely are minor factors, with the main factors probably being changes in the timing and frequency of large precipitation events and persistently wetter antecedent conditions. Changes in the relation between precipitation and streamflow since 1945 were evident when considering the runoff efficiency of the watershed. For example, the streamflow response to annual precipitation of 25 inches for the James River near Scotland increased from approximately 1,000 cubic feet per second for WYs 1945–1990 to about 2,500 cubic feet per second for WYs 1991–2013. The importance of antecedent conditions on annual mean streamflow also was indicated by the significance of the multiple linear regression coefficients of annual mean streamflow and precipitation from preceding water years for all but one streamgage. In addition, rising groundwater levels are present in wells in eastern South Dakota, particularly since the 1980s.

Bed material transport in the Virgin River, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, E.D.

2000-01-01

Detailed information concerning the rate and particle size distribution of bed material transport by streamflows can be very difficult and expensive to obtain, especially where peak streamflows are brief and bed material is poorly sorted, including some very large boulders. Such streams, however, are common in steep, arid watersheds. Any computational approach must consider that (1) only the smaller particle sizes present on the streambed move even during large floods and (2) the largest bed particles exert a significant form drag on the flow. Conventional methods that rely on a single particle size to estimate the skin friction shear stress acting on the mobile fraction of the bed material perform poorly. Instead, for this study, the skin friction shear stress was calculated for the observed range of streamflows by calculating the form drag exerted on the reach‐averaged flow field by all particle sizes. Suspended and bed load transported rates computed from reach‐averaged skin friction shear stress are in excellent agreement with measured transport rates. The computed mean annual bed material load, including both bed load and suspended load, of the East Fork Virgin River for the water years 1992‐1996 was approximately 1.3×10 5 t. A large portion of the bed material load consists of sand‐sized particles, 0.062–1.0 mm in diameter, that are transported in suspension. Such particles, however, constituted only 10% of the surface bed material and less than 25% of the subsurface bed material. The mean annual quantity of bed load transported was 1060 t/yr with a median size of 15 mm.

Analysis of the streamflow-gaging station network in Ohio for effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Straub, D.E.

1998-01-01

The streamflow-gaging station network in Ohio was evaluated for its effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information. The analysis involved application of the principles of generalized least squares regression between streamflow and climatic and basin characteristics. Regression equations were developed for three flow characteristics: (1) the instantaneous peak flow with a 100-year recurrence interval (P100), (2) the mean annual flow (Qa), and (3) the 7-day, 10-year low flow (7Q10). All active and discontinued gaging stations with 5 or more years of unregulated-streamflow data with respect to each flow characteristic were used to develop the regression equations. The gaging-station network was evaluated for the current (1996) condition of the network and estimated conditions of various network strategies if an additional 5 and 20 years of streamflow data were collected. Any active or discontinued gaging station with (1) less than 5 years of unregulated-streamflow record, (2) previously defined basin and climatic characteristics, and (3) the potential for collection of more unregulated-streamflow record were included in the network strategies involving the additional 5 and 20 years of data. The network analysis involved use of the regression equations, in combination with location, period of record, and cost of operation, to determine the contribution of the data for each gaging station to regional streamflow information. The contribution of each gaging station was based on a cost-weighted reduction of the mean square error (average sampling-error variance) associated with each regional estimating equation. All gaging stations included in the network analysis were then ranked according to their contribution to the regional information for each flow characteristic. The predictive ability of the regression equations developed from the gaging station network could be improved for all three flow characteristics with the collection of additional streamflow data. The addition of new gaging stations to the network would result in an even greater improvement of the accuracy of the regional regression equations. Typically, continued data collection at stations with unregulated streamflow for all flow conditions that had less than 11 years of record with drainage areas smaller than 200 square miles contributed the largest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance of the regional estimating equations. The results of the network analyses can be used to prioritize the continued operation of active gaging stations or the reactivation of discontinued gaging stations if the objective is to maximize the regional information content in the streamflow-gaging station network.

Streamflow characteristics for selected stations in and near the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests, southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard

2002-01-01

The U.S Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests, began a study in 2000 to develop selected streamflow characteristics for 60 streamflow-gaging stations in and near the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests. The study area is located in southwestern Colorado within the Gunnison River, Dolores River, and Plateau Creek Basins, which are tributaries of the Colorado River. In addition to presenting the compiled daily, monthly, and annual discharge data for the 60 stations, the report presents tabular and graphical results for the following computed streamflow characteristics: (1) Instantaneous peak-flow frequency; (2) flow duration for daily mean discharges on an annual (water year) basis and on a monthly basis, and flow duration for the annual and monthly mean discharges; (3) low-flow and high-flow frequency of daily mean discharges for periods of 1, 3, 7, 15, 30, 60, 120, and 183 consecutive days; and (4) annual and monthly mean and median discharges for each year and month of record, and frequency of the annual and monthly mean and median discharges. All discharge data and results from the streamflow-characteristics analyses are presented in Microsoft Excel workbooks on the enclosed CD-ROM.

Overview of water resources in and near Wichita and Affiliated Tribes treaty lands in western Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abbott, Marvin M.; Tortorelli, R.L.; Becker, M.F.; Trombley, T.J.

2003-01-01

This report is an overview of water resources in and near the Wichita and Affiliated Tribes treaty lands in western Oklahoma. The tribal treaty lands are about 1,140 square miles and are bordered by the Canadian River on the north, the Washita River on the south, 98? west longitude on the east, and 98? 40' west longitude on the west. Seventy percent of the study area lies within the Washita River drainage basin and 30 percent of the area lies within the Canadian River drainage basin. March through June are months of greatest average streamflow, with 49 to 57 percent of the annual streamflow occurring in these four months. November through February, July, and August have the least average streamflow with only 26 to 36 percent of the annual streamflow occurring in these six months. Two streamflow-gaging stations, Canadian River at Bridgeport and Cobb Creek near Fort Cobb, indicated peak streamflows generally decrease with regulation. Two other streamflow-gaging stations, Washita River at Carnegie and Washita River at Anadarko, indicated a decrease in peak streamflows after regulation at less than the 100-year recurrence and an increase in peak streamflows greater than the 100-year recurrence. Canadian River at Bridgeport and Washita River at Carnegie had estimated annual low flows that generally increased with regulation. Cobb Creek near Fort Cobb had a decrease of estimated annual low flows after regulation. There are greater than 900 ground-water wells in the tribal treaty lands. Eighty percent of the wells are in Caddo County.The major aquifers in the study area are the Rush Springs Aquifer and portions of the Canadian River and Washita River valley alluvial aquifers. The Rush Springs Aquifer is used extensively for irrigation as well as industrial and municipal purposes, especially near population centers.The Canadian River and Washita River valley alluvial aquifers are not used extensively in the study area. Well yields from the Rush Springs Aquifer ranged from 11 to greater than 850 gallons per minute. The Rush Springs Aquifer is recharged by the infiltration of precipitation. The estimated recharge is about 1.80 inches per year evenly distributed over the outcrop of the aquifer in the study area. Principal factors affecting the water quality in the study area include geology, agricultural practices,and oil and gas production. Calcium, magnesium, sulfate, and bicarbonate are the dominant dissolved constituents in water in the study area. Interquartile dissolved-solids concentrations in surface-water samples in the study area generally were greater than interquartile concentrations in ground-water samples. Median dissolved-solids concentrations for ground-water samples from Canadian River, Ionine Creek, Spring Creek,and Washita River Basins, which ranged from 535 to 1,195 milligrams per liter,exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Drinking Water Standard of 500 milligrams per liter. Interquartile sulfate concentrations in surface-water samples in the study area generally were greater than interquartile concentrations in ground-water samples. Median sulfate concentrations from ground-water samples in the Canadian River, IonineCreek,and Spring Creek Basins, which ranged from 385 to 570 milligrams per liter, exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Drinking Water Standard of 250 milligrams per liter. Nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations in surface-water samples in the study area generally were less than concentrations in ground-water samples. The median nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentration in ground water was 9.8 milligrams per liter, suggesting almost one-half the ground-water samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Primary Drinking Water Standard (10 milligrams per liter). An estimated 100 million gallons of water per day were withdrawn from surface and ground water for all uses in

How Does Snow Persistence Relate to Annual Streamflow in Mountain Watersheds of the Western U.S. With Wet Maritime and Dry Continental Climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, John C.; Saavedra, Freddy A.; Kampf, Stephanie K.

2018-04-01

With climate warming, many regions are experiencing changes in snow accumulation and persistence. These changes are known to affect streamflow volume, but the magnitude of the effect varies between regions. This research evaluates whether variables derived from remotely sensed snow cover can be used to estimate annual streamflow at the small watershed scale across the western U.S., a region with a wide range of climate types. We compared snow cover variables derived from MODIS, snow persistence (SP), and snow season (SS), to more commonly utilized metrics, snow fraction (fraction of precipitation falling as snow, SF), and peak snow water equivalent (SWE). Each variable represents different information about snow, and this comparison assesses similarities and differences between the snow metrics. Next, we evaluated how two snow variables, SP and SWE, related to annual streamflow (Q) for 119 USGS reference watersheds and examined whether these relationships varied for wet/warm (precipitation surplus) and dry/cold (precipitation deficit) watersheds. Results showed high correlations between all snow variables, but the slopes of these relationships differed between climates, with wet/warm watersheds displaying lower SF and higher SWE for the same SP. In dry/cold watersheds, both SP and SNODAS SWE correlated with Q spatially across all watersheds and over time within individual watersheds. We conclude that SP can be used to map spatial patterns of annual streamflow generation in dry/cold parts of the region. Applying this approach to the Upper Colorado River Basin demonstrates that 50% of streamflow comes from areas >3,000 masl. If the relationship between SP and Q is similar in other dry/cold regions, this approach could be used to estimate annual streamflow in ungauged basins.

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 21. Hydrology and water balance of the Red River basin, New Mexico 1930-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naus, Cheryl A.; McAda, Douglas P.; Myers, Nathan C.

2006-01-01

A study of the hydrology of the Red River Basin of northern New Mexico, including development of a pre- mining water balance, contributes to a greater understanding of processes affecting the flow and chemistry of water in the Red River and its alluvial aquifer. Estimates of mean annual precipitation for the Red River Basin ranged from 22.32 to 25.19 inches. Estimates of evapotranspiration for the Red River Basin ranged from 15.02 to 22.45 inches or 63.23 to 94.49 percent of mean annual precipitation. Mean annual yield from the Red River Basin estimated using regression equations ranged from 45.26 to 51.57 cubic feet per second. Mean annual yield from the Red River Basin estimated by subtracting evapotranspiration from mean annual precipitation ranged from 55.58 to 93.15 cubic feet per second. In comparison, naturalized 1930-2004 mean annual streamflow at the Red River near Questa gage was 48.9 cubic feet per second. Although estimates developed using regression equations appear to be a good representation of yield from the Red River Basin as a whole, the methods that consider evapotranspiration may more accurately represent yield from smaller basins that have a substantial amount of sparsely vegetated scar area. Hydrograph separation using the HYSEP computer program indicated that subsurface flow for 1930-2004 ranged from 76 to 94 percent of streamflow for individual years with a mean of 87 percent of streamflow. By using a chloride mass-balance method, ground-water recharge was estimated to range from 7 to 17 percent of mean annual precipitation for water samples from wells in Capulin Canyon and the Hansen, Hottentot, La Bobita, and Straight Creek Basins and was 21 percent of mean annual precipitation for water samples from the Red River. Comparisons of mean annual basin yield and measured streamflow indicate that streamflow does not consistently increase as cumulative estimated mean annual basin yield increases. Comparisons of estimated mean annual yield and measured streamflow profiles indicates that, in general, the river is gaining ground water from the alluvium in the reach from the town of Red River to between Hottentot and Straight Creeks, and from Columbine Creek to near Thunder Bridge. The river is losing water to the alluvium from upstream of the mill area to Columbine Creek. Interpretations of ground- and surface-water interactions based on comparisons of mean annual basin yield and measured streamflow are supported further with water-level data from piezometers, wells, and the Red River.

Surface waters of Illinois River basin in Arkansas and Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.

1959-01-01

The estimated runoff from the Illinois River basin of 1,660 square miles has averaged 1,160,000 acre-feet per year during the water years 1938-56, equivalent to an average annual runoff depth of 13.1 inches. About 47 percent of the streamflow is contributed from drainage in Arkansas, where an average of 550,000 acre-ft per year runs off from 755 square miles, 45.5 percent of the total drainage area. The streamflow is highly variable. Twenty-two years of record for Illinois River near Tahlequah, Okla., shows a variation in runoff for the water year 1945 in comparison with 1954 in a ratio of almost 10 to 1. Runoff in 1927 may have exceeded that of 1945, according to records for White River at Beaver, Ark., the drainage basin just east of the Illinois River basin. Variation in daily discharge is suggested by a frequency analysis of low flows at the gaging station near Tahlequah, Okla. The mean flow at that site is 901 cfs (cubic feet per second), the median daily flow is 350 cfs, and the lowest 30-day mean flow in a year probably will be less than 130 cfs half of the time and less than 20 cfs every 10 years on the average. The higher runoff tends to occur in the spring months, March to May, a 3-month period that, on the average, accounts for almost half of the annual flow. High runoff may occur during any month in the year, but in general, the streamflow is the lowest in the summer. The mean monthly flow of Illinois River near Tahlequah, Okla., for September is about 11 percent of that for May. Records show that there is flow throughout the year in Illinois River and its principal tributaries Osage Creek, Flint Creek and Barren Fork. The high variability in streamflow in this region requires the development of storage by impoundment if maximum utilization of the available water supplies is to be attained. For example, a 120-day average low flow of 22 cfs occurred in 1954 at Illinois River near Tahlequah, Okla. To have maintained the flow at 350 cfs, the median daily flow during the 19-year base period, an impoundment at that site would have required a usable storage of 185,000 acre-ft to satisfy this demand during the drought years 1954-1956. The surface waters of the Illinois River basin are excellent quality being suitable for municipal, agriculture and most industrial uses. The average concentration of the dissolved mineral content is about 105 ppm (parts per million) and the hardness about 85 ppm. The water is slightly alkaline, having a range of pH values from 7.2 to 8.0. This report gives the estimated average discharge at gaging stations and approximations of average discharge at the State line for 3 sub-basins during the 19-year period October 1937 to September 1956, used as a base period in this report. Duration-of-flow data for various percentages of the time are shown for the period of observed record at the gaging stations; similar data are estimated for the selected base period. Storage requirements to sustain flow during the recent drought years are given for 3 stations. The streamflow records in the basin are presented on a monthly and annual basis through September 1957; provisional records for 3 stations are included through July 1958 for correlation purposes. Results of discharge measurements are given for miscellaneous sites where low-flow observations have been made. (available as photostat copy only)

Muted responses of streamflow and suspended sediment flux in a wildfire-affected watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, P. N.; Giles, T. R.; Petticrew, E. L.; Leggat, M. S.; Moore, R. D.; Eaton, B. C.

2013-11-01

In August 2003 a severe wildfire burnt 62% of Fishtrap Creek, a 158 km2 watershed in central British Columbia, Canada. Streamflows were obtained for the period 1980-2010 and suspended sediment fluxes were determined for the period 2004-2010 for Fishtrap Creek and these were compared to data for nearby Jamieson Creek, which was not affected by the wildfire. Peak streamflows in Fishtrap Creek after the wildfire were not significantly higher than before the wildfire, although total annual runoff had increased. Perhaps the most important change in streamflows following the wildfire was that peak flows associated with the annual freshet occurred earlier in the year (by ca. 2 weeks). Following the wildfire, monthly total suspended sediment fluxes peaked in April in Fishtrap Creek and May in Jamieson Creek, which reflects the change in timing of peak streamflows in Fishtrap. Specific suspended sediment yields were low in the first year following the wildfire (2004), and peak values for the 2004-2010 monitoring period occurred in 2006. Average specific suspended sediment yields over the monitoring period were similar for both watersheds at 2.8 and 2.9 t km- 2 year- 1 for Fishtrap and Jamieson watersheds, respectively. The muted responses of streamflows and suspended sediment fluxes following this severe wildfire are due to the lack of winter precipitation and the low intensities of summer rainfall events in the first year following the wildfire. Greater winter precipitation and associated snowmelt in subsequent years coincided with vegetation recovery. The major changes in the wildfire-affected watershed were increased bank erosion and channel migration due to a loss of root strength and cohesion, which occurred 3-5 years after the fire. This work demonstrates that the hydrological and geomorphological responses of watersheds to wildfires are a function of the severity of the wildfire and the timing and nature of driving forces (i.e. rainfall intensity, winter precipitation and snowmelt) during the progression of vegetation recovery.

Streamflow, infiltration, and recharge in Arroyo Hondo, New Mexico: Chapter F in Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Professional Paper 1703)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Stephanie J.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Infiltration events in channels that flow only sporadically produce focused recharge to the Tesuque aquifer in the Española Basin. The current study examined the quantity and timing of streamflow and associated infiltration in Arroyo Hondo, an unregulated mountain-front stream that enters the basin from the western slope of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Traditional methods of stream gaging were combined with environmental-tracer based methods to provide the estimates. The study was conducted during a three-year period, October 1999–October 2002. The period was characterized by generally low precipitation and runoff. Summer monsoonal rains produced four brief periods of streamflow in water year 2000, only three of which extended beyond the mountain front, and negligible runoff in subsequent years. The largest peak flow during summer monsoon events was 0.59 cubic meters per second. Snowmelt was the main contributor to annual streamflow. Snowmelt produced more cumulative flow downstream from the mountain front during the study period than summer monsoonal rains.The presence or absence of streamflow downstream of the mountain front was determined by interpretation of streambed thermographs. Infiltration rates were estimated by numerical modeling of transient vertical streambed temperature profiles. Snowmelt extended throughout the instrumented reach during the spring of 2001. Flow was recorded at a station two kilometers downstream from the mountain front for six consecutive days in March. Inverse modeling of this event indicated an average infiltration rate of 1.4 meters per day at this location. For the entire study reach, the estimated total annual volume of infiltration ranged from 17,100 to 246,000 m3 during water years 2000 and 2001. During water year 2002, due to severe drought, streamflow and streambed infiltration in the study reach were both zero.

Evaluating water quality ecosystem services of wetlands under historic and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K.

2013-12-01

Potential hydrologic effects of climate change have been assessed extensively; however, possible impacts of changing climate on in-stream water quality at the watershed scale have received little study. We assessed potential impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality in the mountainous Sprague River watershed, Oregon, USA, where high total phosphorus (TP) and sediment loads are associated with lake eutrophication and mortality of endangered fish species. Additionally, we analyzed water quality impacts of wetland and riparian zone loss and gain under present-day climate and future climate scenarios. We utilized the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with six distinct climate scenarios derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models to assess magnitude and direction of trends in streamflow, sediment and TP fluxes in the mid-21st century (2030-2059). Model results showed little significant trend in average annual streamflow under most climate scenarios, but trends in annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and TP fluxes were more pronounced and were generally increasing. Results also suggest that future loss of present-day wetlands and riparian zones under land use or climatic change could result in substantial increases in sediment and TP loads at the Sprague River outlet.

Regionalization of winter low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bingham, R.H.

1986-01-01

Procedures were developed for estimating winter (December-April) low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to West Tennessee streams, and another set applies to Middle and East Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by the activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for West Tennessee are 22% - 35% and for middle and East Tennessee 31% - 36%. Statistical analyses indicate that summer low-flow characteristics are the same as annual low-flow characteristics, and that winter low flows are larger than annual low flows. Streamflow-recession indexes, in days per log cycle of decrease in discharge, were used to account for effects of geology on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that contribute to streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow-recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Peak data for U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations, Texas network and computer program to estimate peak-streamflow frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slade, R.M.; Asquith, W.H.

1996-01-01

About 23,000 annual peak streamflows and about 400 historical peak streamflows exist for about 950 stations in the surface-water data-collection network of Texas. These data are presented on a computer diskette along with the corresponding dates, gage heights, and information concerning the basin, and nature or cause for the flood. Also on the computer diskette is a U.S. Geological Survey computer program that estimates peak-streamflow frequency based on annual and historical peak streamflow. The program estimates peak streamflow for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals and is based on guidelines established by the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. Explanations are presented for installing the program, and an example is presented with discussion of its options.

Streamflow and nutrient data for the Yazoo River below Steele Bayou near Long Lake, Mississippi, 1996-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runner, Michael S.; Turnipseed, D. Phil; Coupe, Richard H.

2002-01-01

Increased nutrient loading to the Gulf of Mexico from off-continent flux has been identified as contributing to the increase in the areal extent of the low dissolved-oxygen zone that develops annually off the Louisiana and Texas coast. The proximity of the Yazoo River Basin in northwestern Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico, and the intensive agricultural activities in the basin have led to speculation that the Yazoo River Basin contributes a disproportionate amount of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Mississippi River and ultimately to the Gulf of Mexico. An empirical measurement of the flux of nitrogen and phosphorus from the Yazoo Basin has not been possible due to the hydrology of the lower Yazoo River Basin. Streamflow for the Yazoo River below Steele Bayou is affected by backwater from the Mississippi River. Flow at the gage is non-uniform and varying, with bi-directional and reverse flows possible. Streamflow was computed by using remote sensing and acoustic and conventional discharge and velocity measurement techniques. Streamflow from the Yazoo River for the 1996-2000 period accounted for 2.8 percent of the flow of the Mississippi River for the same period. Water samples from the Yazoo River were collected from February 1996 through December 2000 and were analyzed for total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, and orthophosphorus as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These data were used to compute annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus discharged from the Yazoo River for the period 1996-2000. Annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus were calculated by two methods. The first method used multivariate regression and the second method multiplied the mean annual concentration by the total annual flow. Load estimates based on the product of the mean annual concentration and the total annual flow were within the 95 percent confidence interval for the load calculated by multivariate regression in 10 of 20 cases. The Yazoo River loads, compared to average annual loads in the Mississippi River, indicated that the Yazoo River was contributing 1.4 percent of the total nitrogen load, 0.7 percent of the nitrate load, 3.4 percent of the total phosphorus load, and 1.6 percent of the orthophosphorus load during 1996 - 2000. The total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus loads in the Yazoo River Basin were less than expected, whereas the total phosphorus load was slightly higher than expected based on discharge.

Drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambeth-Beagles, R. S.; Troch, P. A.

2010-12-01

The Colorado River is the main water supply to the southwest region. As demand reaches the limit of supply in the southwest it becomes increasingly important to understand the dynamics of streamflow in the Colorado River and in particular the tributaries to the lower Colorado River. Climate change may pose an additional threat to the already-scarce water supply in the southwest. Due to the narrowing margin for error, water managers are keen on extending their ability to predict streamflow volumes on a mid-range to decadal scale. Before a predictive streamflow model can be developed, an understanding of the physical drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin is needed. This research addresses this need by applying multiple statistical methods to identify trends, patterns and relationships present in streamflow, precipitation and temperature over the past century in four contributing watersheds to the lower Colorado River. The four watersheds selected were the Paria, Little Colorado, Virgin/Muddy, and Bill Williams. Time series data over a common period from 1906-2007 for streamflow, precipitation and temperature were used for the initial analysis. Through statistical analysis the following questions were addressed: 1) are there observable trends and patterns in these variables during the past century and 2) if there are trends or patterns, how are they related to each other? The Mann-Kendall test was used to identify trends in the three variables. Assumptions regarding autocorrelation and persistence in the data were taken into consideration. Kendall’s tau-b test was used to establish association between any found trends in the data. Initial results suggest there are two primary processes occurring. First, statistical analysis reveals significant upward trends in temperatures and downward trends in streamflow. However, there appears to be no trend in precipitation data. These trends in streamflow and temperature speak to increasing evaporation and transpiration processes. Second, annual variability in streamflow is not statistically correlated with annual temperature variability but appears to be highly correlated with annual precipitation variability. This implies that on a year-to-year basis, changes in streamflow volumes are directly affected by precipitation and not temperature. Future development of a predictive streamflow model will need to take into consideration these two processes to obtain accurate results. In order to extend predictive skill to the multi-year scale relationships between precipitation, temperature and persistent climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Nino/Southern Oscillation will need to be examined.

Temporal dynamics of groundwater-surface water interaction under the effects of climate change: A case study in the Kiskatinaw River Watershed, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Gopal Chandra; Li, Jianbing; Thring, Ronald W.; Hirshfield, Faye; Paul, Siddhartho Shekhar

2017-08-01

Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction plays a vital role in the functioning of riparian ecosystem, as well as sustainable water resources management. In this study, temporal dynamics of GW-SW interaction were investigated under climate change. A case study was chosen for a study area along the Kiskatinaw River in Mainstem sub-watershed of the Kiskatinaw River Watershed, British Columbia, Canada. A physically based and distributed GW-SW interaction model, Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), was used. Two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (i.e., A2: heterogeneous world with self-reliance and preservation of local identities, and B1: more integrated and environmental friendly world) of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) from Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used for climate change study for 2020-2040. The simulation results showed that climate change influences significantly the temporal patterns of GW-SW interaction by generating variable temporal mean groundwater contributions to streamflow. Due to precipitation variability, these contributions varied monthly, seasonally, and annually. The mean annual groundwater contribution to streamflow during 2020-2040 under the A2 and B1 scenarios is expected to be 74.5% (σ = 2%) and 75.6% (σ = 3%), respectively. As compared to that during the base modeling period (2007-2011), the mean annual groundwater contribution to streamflow during 2020-2040 under the A2 and B1 scenarios is expected to decrease by 5.5% and 4.4%, respectively, due to the increased precipitation (on average 6.7% in the A2 and 4.8% in the B1 scenarios) and temperature (on average 0.83 °C in the A2 and 0.64 °C in the B1 scenarios). The results obtained from this study will provide useful information in the long-term seasonal and annual water extractions from the river for future water supply, as well as for evaluating the ecological conditions of the stream, which will be beneficial to aquatic ecosystems.

Effects of land cover change on evapotranspiration and streamflow of small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin, Central Brazi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Dias, L. C. P.; Macedo, M.; Coe, M. T.; Neill, C.

2014-12-01

This study assess the influence of land cover changes on evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin (Mato Grosso state, Brazil). Streamflow was measured in catchments with uniform land use for September 1, 2008 to August 31, 2010. We used models to simulate evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four most common land cover types found in the Upper Xingu: tropical forest, cerrado (savanna), pasture, and soybean croplands. We used INLAND to perform single point simulations considering tropical rainforest, cerrado and pasturelands, and AgroIBIS for croplands. Converting natural vegetation to agriculture substantially modifies evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments. Measured mean streamflow in soy catchments was about three times greater than that of forest catchments, while the mean annual amplitude of flow in soy catchments was more than twice that of forest catchments. Simulated mean annual evapotranspiration was 39% lower in agricultural ecosystems (pasture and soybean cropland) than in natural ecosystems (tropical rainforest and cerrado). Observed and simulated mean annual streamflows in agricultural ecosystems were more than 100% higher than in natural ecosystems. The accuracy of the simulations is improved by using field-measured soil hydraulic properties. The inclusion of local measurements of key soil parameters is likely to improve hydrological simulations in other tropical regions.

Effects of land cover change on evapotranspiration and streamflow of small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin, Central Brazi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Dias, L. C. P.; Macedo, M.; Coe, M. T.; Neill, C.

2015-12-01

This study assess the influence of land cover changes on evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin (Mato Grosso state, Brazil). Streamflow was measured in catchments with uniform land use for September 1, 2008 to August 31, 2010. We used models to simulate evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four most common land cover types found in the Upper Xingu: tropical forest, cerrado (savanna), pasture, and soybean croplands. We used INLAND to perform single point simulations considering tropical rainforest, cerrado and pasturelands, and AgroIBIS for croplands. Converting natural vegetation to agriculture substantially modifies evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments. Measured mean streamflow in soy catchments was about three times greater than that of forest catchments, while the mean annual amplitude of flow in soy catchments was more than twice that of forest catchments. Simulated mean annual evapotranspiration was 39% lower in agricultural ecosystems (pasture and soybean cropland) than in natural ecosystems (tropical rainforest and cerrado). Observed and simulated mean annual streamflows in agricultural ecosystems were more than 100% higher than in natural ecosystems. The accuracy of the simulations is improved by using field-measured soil hydraulic properties. The inclusion of local measurements of key soil parameters is likely to improve hydrological simulations in other tropical regions.

WaterWatch - Maps, graphs, and tables of current, recent, and past streamflow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jian, Xiaodong; Wolock, David; Lins, Harry F.

2008-01-01

WaterWatch (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/) is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) World Wide Web site that dis­plays maps, graphs, and tables describing real-time, recent, and past streamflow conditions for the United States. The real-time information generally is updated on an hourly basis. WaterWatch provides streamgage-based maps that show the location of more than 3,000 long-term (30 years or more) USGS streamgages; use colors to represent streamflow conditions compared to historical streamflow; feature a point-and-click interface allowing users to retrieve graphs of stream stage (water elevation) and flow; and highlight locations where extreme hydrologic events, such as floods and droughts, are occurring.The streamgage-based maps show streamflow conditions for real-time, average daily, and 7-day average streamflow. The real-time streamflow maps highlight flood and high flow conditions. The 7-day average streamflow maps highlight below-normal and drought conditions.WaterWatch also provides hydrologic unit code (HUC) maps. HUC-based maps are derived from the streamgage-based maps and illustrate streamflow conditions in hydrologic regions. These maps show average streamflow conditions for 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-day periods, and for monthly average streamflow; highlight regions of low flow or hydrologic drought; and provide historical runoff and streamflow conditions beginning in 1901.WaterWatch summarizes streamflow conditions in a region (state or hydrologic unit) in terms of the long-term typical condition at streamgages in the region. Summary tables are provided along with time-series plots that depict variations through time. WaterWatch also includes tables of current streamflow information and locations of flooding.

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Poole, Sandra; Wolfe, William J.; Seibert, Jan; Breuer, Lutz; Kraft, Philipp

2016-01-01

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Flow characteristics at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolock, David

2003-01-01

This dataset represents point locations and flow characteristics for current (as of November 20, 2001) and historical U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the conterminous United States. The flow characteristics were computed from the daily streamflow data recorded at each streamgage for the period of record. The attributes associated with each streamgage include: Station number Station name Station latitude (decimal degrees in North American Datum of 1983, NAD 83) Station longitude (decimal degrees in NAD 83) First date (year, month, day) of streamflow data Last date (year, month, day) of streamflow data Number of days of streamflow data Minimum and maximum daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) Percentiles (1, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 75, 80, 90, 95, 99) of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) Average and standard deviation of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) Mean annual base-flow index (BFI: see supplemental information) computed for the period of record (fraction, ranging from 0 to 1) Year-to-year standard deviation of the annual base-flow index computed for the period of record (fraction) Number of years of data used to compute the base-flow index (years) Reported drainage area (square miles) Reported contributing drainage area (square miles) National Water Information System (NWIS)-Web page URL for streamgage Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC, 8 digit) Hydrologic landscape region (HLR) River Reach File 1 (RF1) segment identification number (E2RF1##) Station numbers, names, locations, and drainage areas were acquired through the National Water Information System (NWIS)-Web (http://water.usgs.gov/nwis) on November 20, 2001. The streamflow data used to compute flow characteristics were copied from the Water server (water.usgs.gov:/www/htdocs/nwisweb/data1/discharge/) on November 2, 2001. The missing value indicator for all attributes is -99. Some streamflow characteristics are missing for: (1) streamgages measuring flow subject to tidal effects, which cause flow to reverse directions, (2) streamgages with site information but no streamflow data at the time the data were retrieved, and (3) streamgages with record length too short to compute the base-flow index.

Peak streamflows and runoff volumes for the Central United States, February through September, 2011: Chapter C in 2011 floods of the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Wiche, Gregg J.; Koenig, Todd A.; Sando, Steven K.

2013-01-01

During 2011, excessive precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Souris/Red River of the North (Souris/Red) and Mississippi River Basins. At different times, beginning in late February 2011 and extending through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations receiving multiple rounds of flooding. Peak streamflow records were broken at 105 streamgages in the Souris/Red and Mississippi River Basins and annual runoff volume records set at 47 of the 211 streamgages analyzed for annual runoff. For the period of 1950 through 2011, the Ohio River provided almost one-half of the annual runoff at Vicksburg; the Missouri River contributed less than one-fourth, and the lower Mississippi River less than one-fourth. Those relative contribution patterns also occurred in 1973 and 2011, with the notable exception of the decrease in contribution of the lower Mississippi River tributaries and the increase in contribution from the upper Missouri River Basin in 2011 as compared to 1973 and the long-term average from 1950 to 2011.

Flooding in the Northeastern United States, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suro, Thomas P.; Roland, Mark A.; Kiah, Richard G.

2015-12-31

The annual exceedance probability (AEP) for 327 streamgages in the Northeastern United States were computed using annual peak streamflow data through 2011 and are included in this report. The 2011 peak streamflow for 129 of those streamgages was estimated to have an AEP of less than or equal to 1 percent. Almost 100 of these peak streamflows were a result of the flooding associated with Hurricane Irene in late August 2011. More extreme than the 1-percent AEP, is the 0.2-percent AEP. The USGS recorded peak streamflows at 31 streamgages that equaled or exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent AEP during 2011. Collectively, the USGS recorded peak streamflows having estimated AEPs of less than 1 percent in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont and new period-of-record peak streamflows were recorded at more than 180 streamgages resulting from the floods of 2011.

FLO1K, global maps of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow at 1 km resolution from 1960 through 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Beck, Hylke E.; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2018-03-01

Streamflow data is highly relevant for a variety of socio-economic as well as ecological analyses or applications, but a high-resolution global streamflow dataset is yet lacking. We created FLO1K, a consistent streamflow dataset at a resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km) and global coverage. FLO1K comprises mean, maximum and minimum annual flow for each year in the period 1960-2015, provided as spatially continuous gridded layers. We mapped streamflow by means of artificial neural networks (ANNs) regression. An ensemble of ANNs were fitted on monthly streamflow observations from 6600 monitoring stations worldwide, i.e., minimum and maximum annual flows represent the lowest and highest mean monthly flows for a given year. As covariates we used the upstream-catchment physiography (area, surface slope, elevation) and year-specific climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, aridity index and seasonality indices). Confronting the maps with independent data indicated good agreement (R2 values up to 91%). FLO1K delivers essential data for freshwater ecology and water resources analyses at a global scale and yet high spatial resolution.

Compilation of streamflow statistics calculated from daily mean streamflow data collected during water years 1901–2015 for selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.; Ries, Kernell G.; Steeves, Peter A.

2017-10-16

Streamflow statistics are needed by decision makers for many planning, management, and design activities. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats Web application provides convenient access to streamflow statistics for many streamgages by accessing the underlying StreamStatsDB database. In 2016, non-interpretive streamflow statistics were compiled for streamgages located throughout the Nation and stored in StreamStatsDB for use with StreamStats and other applications. Two previously published USGS computer programs that were designed to help calculate streamflow statistics were updated to better support StreamStats as part of this effort. These programs are named “GNWISQ” (Get National Water Information System Streamflow (Q) files), updated to version 1.1.1, and “QSTATS” (Streamflow (Q) Statistics), updated to version 1.1.2.Statistics for 20,438 streamgages that had 1 or more complete years of record during water years 1901 through 2015 were calculated from daily mean streamflow data; 19,415 of these streamgages were within the conterminous United States. About 89 percent of the 20,438 streamgages had 3 or more years of record, and about 65 percent had 10 or more years of record. Drainage areas of the 20,438 streamgages ranged from 0.01 to 1,144,500 square miles. The magnitude of annual average streamflow yields (streamflow per square mile) for these streamgages varied by almost six orders of magnitude, from 0.000029 to 34 cubic feet per second per square mile. About 64 percent of these streamgages did not have any zero-flow days during their available period of record. The 18,122 streamgages with 3 or more years of record were included in the StreamStatsDB compilation so they would be available via the StreamStats interface for user-selected streamgages. All the statistics are available in a USGS ScienceBase data release.

Estimation of selected seasonal streamflow statistics representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

2010-01-01

Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating seasonal 1-day 10-year, 7-day 10-year, and 30-day 5-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the seasonal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows and the 50-percent flow-duration values. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Regional equations were developed using ordinary least squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamgage stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia-North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle Regions-were determined. Drainage area, average annual precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. The average standard error of estimates for the equations ranged from 12.6 to 299 percent. Procedures developed to estimate the selected seasonal streamflow statistics in this study are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have independent variables within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations: drainage area from 16.3 to 1,516 square miles in the North Region, from 2.78 to 1,619 square miles in the South-Central Region, and from 8.83 to 3,041 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle Region; average annual precipitation from 42.3 to 61.4 inches in the South-Central Region and from 39.8 to 52.9 inches in the Eastern Panhandle Region; and longitude of the basin centroid from 79.618 to 82.023 decimal degrees in the North Region. All estimates of seasonal streamflow statistics are representative of the period from the 1930 to the 2002 climatic year.

A nonparametric stochastic method for generating daily climate-adjusted streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Moglen, G. E.

2013-10-01

A daily stochastic streamflow generation model is presented, which successfully replicates statistics of the historical streamflow record and can produce climate-adjusted daily time series. A monthly climate model relates general circulation model (GCM)-scale climate indicators to discrete climate-streamflow states, which in turn control parameters in a daily streamflow generation model. Daily flow is generated by a two-state (increasing/decreasing) Markov chain, with rising limb increments randomly sampled from a Weibull distribution and the falling limb modeled as exponential recession. When applied to the Potomac River, a 38,000 km2 basin in the Mid-Atlantic United States, the model reproduces the daily, monthly, and annual distribution and dynamics of the historical streamflow record, including extreme low flows. This method can be used as part of water resources planning, vulnerability, and adaptation studies and offers the advantage of a parsimonious model, requiring only a sufficiently long historical streamflow record and large-scale climate data. Simulation of Potomac streamflows subject to the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1b, A2, and B1 emission scenarios predict a slight increase in mean annual flows over the next century, with the majority of this increase occurring during the winter and early spring. Conversely, mean summer flows are projected to decrease due to climate change, caused by a shift to shorter, more sporadic rain events. Date of the minimum annual flow is projected to shift 2-5 days earlier by the 2070-2099 period.

Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Heeswijk, Marijke

2006-01-01

Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F

Improving Streamflow Forecasts Using Predefined Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2011-12-01

With the increasing evidence of climate variability, water resources managers in the western United States are faced with greater challenges of developing long range streamflow forecast. This is further aggravated by the increases in climate extremes such as floods and drought caused by climate variability. Over the years, climatologists have identified several modes of climatic variability and their relationship with streamflow. These climate modes have the potential of being used as predictor in models for improving the streamflow lead time. With this as the motivation, the current research focuses on increasing the streamflow lead time using predefine climate indices. A data driven model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory is used to predict annual streamflow volume 3-year in advance. The SVM model is a learning system that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space, and is trained with a learning algorithm from the optimization theory. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a new Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set of "Hondo" Region for a period of 1906-2005 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes. The SVM model is applied to three gages i.e. Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Based on the performance measures the model shows very good forecasts, and the forecast are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Previous research has identified NAO and ENSO as main drivers for extending streamflow forecast lead-time in the UCRB. Inclusion of "Hondo Region" SST information further improve the model's forecasting ability. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual streamflow of the UCRB is significantly influenced by predefine climate modes and the proposed SVM modeling technique incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations is expected to be useful to water managers in the long-term management of the water resources within the UCRB.

A history of annual streamflows from the 21 water-resource regions in the United States and Puerto Rico, 1951-83

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graczyk, D.J.; Krug, W.R.; Gebert, W.A.

1986-01-01

Streamflow from the Upper and Lower Colorado (Regions 14 and 15) appear to be heavily affected by large storage reservoirs. Streamflow from the Upper Colorado (Region 14) shows a decreasing streamflow in 1963 and 1964, which may be due to filling of Lake Powell.

Streamflow responses to road building and harvesting: A comparison with the equivalent clearcut area procedure

Treesearch

John G. King

1989-01-01

lncreases in annual streamflow and peak streamflows were determined on four small watersheds following timber harvesting and road building. The measured hydrologic changes are compared to those predicted by a methodology commonly used in the Forest Service's Northern Region, the equivalent clearcut area procedure. lncreases in peak streamflows are discussed with...

Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Alfonso; Muñoz, Ariel; González-Reyes, Álvaro; Aguilera-Betti, Isabella; Toledo, Isadora; Puchi, Paulina; Sauchyn, David; Crespo, Sebastián; Frene, Cristian; Mundo, Ignacio; González, Mauro; Vignola, Raffaele

2018-05-01

Streamflow in south-central Chile (SCC, ˜ 37-42° S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings of an analysis of instrumental records and a tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial ( ˜ 37° 40' S-38° 50' S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record ( ˜ 1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes. We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support the need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management.

Landscape structure and climate influences on hydrologic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nippgen, Fabian; McGlynn, Brian L.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Emanuel, Ryan E.

2011-12-01

Climate variability and catchment structure (topography, geology, vegetation) have a significant influence on the timing and quantity of water discharged from mountainous catchments. How these factors combine to influence runoff dynamics is poorly understood. In this study we linked differences in hydrologic response across catchments and across years to metrics of landscape structure and climate using a simple transfer function rainfall-runoff modeling approach. A transfer function represents the internal catchment properties that convert a measured input (rainfall/snowmelt) into an output (streamflow). We examined modeled mean response time, defined as the average time that it takes for a water input to leave the catchment outlet from the moment it reaches the ground surface. We combined 12 years of precipitation and streamflow data from seven catchments in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Little Belt Mountains, southwestern Montana) with landscape analyses to quantify the first-order controls on mean response times. Differences between responses across the seven catchments were related to the spatial variability in catchment structure (e.g., slope, flowpath lengths, tree height). Annual variability was largely a function of maximum snow water equivalent. Catchment averaged runoff ratios exhibited strong correlations with mean response time while annually averaged runoff ratios were not related to climatic metrics. These results suggest that runoff ratios in snowmelt dominated systems are mainly controlled by topography and not by climatic variability. This approach provides a simple tool for assessing differences in hydrologic response across diverse watersheds and climate conditions.

Estimation of unregulated monthly, annual, and peak streamflows in Forest City Stream and lake levels in East Grand Lake, United States-Canada border between Maine and New Brunswick

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2018-04-30

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, compiled historical data on regulated streamflows and lake levels and estimated unregulated streamflows and lake levels on Forest City Stream at Forest City, Maine, and East Grand Lake on the United States-Canada border between Maine and New Brunswick to study the effects on streamflows and lake levels if two or all three dam gates are left open. Historical regulated monthly mean streamflows in Forest City Stream at the outlet of East Grand Lake (referred to as Grand Lake by Environment Canada) fluctuated between 114 cubic feet per second (ft3 /s) (3.23 cubic meters per second [m3 /s]) in November and 318 ft3 /s (9.01 m3 /s) in September from 1975 to 2015 according to Environment Canada streamgaging data. Unregulated monthly mean streamflows at this location estimated from regression equations for unregulated sites range from 59.2 ft3 /s (1.68 m3 /s) in September to 653 ft3 /s (18.5 m3 /s) in April. Historical lake levels in East Grand Lake fluctuated between 431.3 feet (ft) (131.5 meters [m]) in October and 434.0 ft (132.3 m) in May from 1969 to 2016 according to Environment Canada lake level data for East Grand Lake. Average monthly lake levels modeled by using the estimated hydrology for unregulated flows, and an outflow rating built from a hydraulic model with all gates at the dam open, range from 427.7 ft (130.4 m) in September to 431.1 ft (131.4 m) in April. Average monthly lake levels would likely be from 1.8 to 5.4 ft (0.55 to 1.6 m) lower with the gates at the dam opened than they have been historically. The greatest lake level changes would be from June through September.

Streamflow characteristics at streamgages in northern Afghanistan and selected locations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Williams-Sether, Tara

2010-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for 79 historical streamgages in Northern Afghanistan and other selected historical streamgages are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamgage include (1) station description, (2) graph of the annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, (4) monthly and annual flow duration, (5) probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, (6) probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, (7) probability of occurrence of seasonal low discharges, (8) annual peak discharges for the period of record, and (9) monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; McDowell, Nathan G.; Xu, Chonggang; Vivoni, Enrique; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate-disturbance scenarios is at least 6-11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15-21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.

Streamflow variability and classification using false nearest neighbor method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vignesh, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sivakumar, B.

2015-12-01

Understanding regional streamflow dynamics and patterns continues to be a challenging problem. The present study introduces the false nearest neighbor (FNN) algorithm, a nonlinear dynamic-based method, to examine the spatial variability of streamflow over a region. The FNN method is a dimensionality-based approach, where the dimension of the time series represents its variability. The method uses phase space reconstruction and nearest neighbor concepts, and identifies false neighbors in the reconstructed phase space. The FNN method is applied to monthly streamflow data monitored over a period of 53 years (1950-2002) in an extensive network of 639 stations in the contiguous United States (US). Since selection of delay time in phase space reconstruction may influence the FNN outcomes, analysis is carried out for five different delay time values: monthly, seasonal, and annual separation of data as well as delay time values obtained using autocorrelation function (ACF) and average mutual information (AMI) methods. The FNN dimensions for the 639 streamflow series are generally identified to range from 4 to 12 (with very few exceptional cases), indicating a wide range of variability in the dynamics of streamflow across the contiguous US. However, the FNN dimensions for a majority of the streamflow series are found to be low (less than or equal to 6), suggesting low level of complexity in streamflow dynamics in most of the individual stations and over many sub-regions. The FNN dimension estimates also reveal that streamflow dynamics in the western parts of the US (including far west, northwestern, and southwestern parts) generally exhibit much greater variability compared to that in the eastern parts of the US (including far east, northeastern, and southeastern parts), although there are also differences among 'pockets' within these regions. These results are useful for identification of appropriate model complexity at individual stations, patterns across regions and sub-regions, interpolation and extrapolation of data, and catchment classification. An attempt is also made to relate the FNN dimensions with catchment characteristics and streamflow statistical properties.

Annual replenishment of bed material by sediment transport in the Wind River near Riverton, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smalley, M.L.; Emmett, W.W.; Wacker, A.M.

1994-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wyoming Department of Transportation, conducted a study during 1985-87 to determine the annual replenishment of sand and gravel along a point bar in the Wind River near Riverton, Wyoming. Hydraulic- geometry relations determined from streamflow measurements; streamflow characteristics determined from 45 years of record at the study site; and analyses of suspended-sediment, bedload, and bed- material samples were used to describe river transport characteristics and to estimate the annual replenishment of sand and gravel. The Wind River is a perennial, snowmelt-fed stream. Average daily discharge at the study site is about 734 cubic feet per second, and bankfull discharge (recurrence interval about 1.5 years) is about 5,000 cubic feet per second. At bankfull discharge, the river is about 136 feet wide and has an average depth of about 5.5 feet and average velocity of about 6.7 feet per second. Streams slope is about 0.0010 foot per foot. Bed material sampled on the point bar before the 1986 high flows ranged from sand to cobbles, with a median diameter of about 22 millimeters. Data for sediment samples collected during water year 1986 were used to develop regression equations between suspended-sediment load and water discharge and between bedload and water discharge. Average annual suspended-sediment load was computed to be about 561,000 tons per year using the regression equation in combination with flow-duration data. The regression equation for estimating bedload was not used; instead, average annual bedload was computed as 1.5 percent of average annual suspended load about 8,410 tons per year. This amount of bedload material is estimated to be in temporary storage along a reach containing seven riffles--a length of approximately 1 river mile. On the basis of bedload material sampled during the 1986 high flows, about 75 percent (by weight) is sand (2 millimeters in diameter or finer); median particle size is about 0.5 milli- meter. About 20 percent (by weight) is medium gravel to small cobbles--12.7 millimeters (0.5 inch) or coarser. The bedload moves slowly (about 0.03 percent of the water speed) and briefly (about 10 percent of the time). The average travel distance of a median-sized particle is about 1 river mile per year. The study results indicate that the average replenishment rate of bedload material coarser than 12.7 millimeters is about 1,500 to 2,000 tons (less than 1,500 cubic yards) per year. Finer material (0.075 to 6.4 millimeters in diameter) is replen- ishment at about 4,500 to 5,000 cubic yards per year. The total volume of potentially usable material would average about 6,000 cubic yards per year.

Variation of froude number with discharge for large-gradient steams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Kenneth L.; ,

1993-01-01

Under chemical-control conditions, the Froude number (f) for a cross-section can be approximated as a function of the ratio R2/ 3/d 1/2 , where R is the hydraulic radius and d is the average depth. For cross sections where the ratio increases with increasing depth, F can also increase with depth Current-meter measurement data for 433 streamflow gaging stations in Colorado were reviewed, and 62 stations were identified at which F increases with depth of flow. Data for four streamflow gaging stations are presented. In some cases, F approaches 1 as the discharge approaches the magnitude of the median annual peak discharge. The data also indicate that few actual current meter measurement have been made at the large discharges where velocities can be supercritical.

ESTIMATING STREAMFLOW AND ASSOCIATED HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY, THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Methods to estimate streamflow and channel hydraulic geometry were developed for ungaged streams in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Observed mean annual streamflow and associated hydraulic geometry data from 75 gaging stations located in the Appalachian Plateau, the Ridge and Valley, an...

Streamflow characteristics of streams in southeastern Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.

2010-01-01

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for all historical streamgaging stations that have available data in the southeastern Afghanistan provinces of Ghazni, Khost, Logar, Paktya, and Wardak, and a portion of Kabul Province are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamgaging station include a station desciption, table of statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, table of monthly and annual flow duration, table of probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, table of probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, table of annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and table of monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.

Some relations between streamflow characteristics and the environment in the Delaware River region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hely, A.G.; Olmsted, F.H.

1963-01-01

Streamflow characteristics are determined by a large number of factors of the meteorological and terrestrial environments. Because of lack of quantitative data to describe some of the factors and complex interrelations among them, complete analysis of the relations between streamflow and the various environmental factors is impossible. However, certain simplifying assumptions and generalizations made possible a partial analysis for the Delaware River region. For relations involving average runoff or low-flow parameters, average annual precipitation was assumed to be the principal meteorological factor, and geology (a complex of many factors) was assumed to be the principal terrestrial influence, except for that of basin size which was largely eliminated by expression of discharge in terms of unit area. As a first approximation, physiographic units were used as a basis for classifying the geology. Relations between flow parameters and precipitation are fairly well defined for some physiographic units, but not for those in which the geology varies markedly or the areal variation in average precipitation is very small. These relations provide a basis for adjusting the flow parameters to reduce or eliminate the effects of areal variations in precipitation and increase their significance in studies of the effects of terrestrial characteristics. An investigation of the residual effect of basin size (the effect remaining when discharge is expressed in terms of unit area) on relations between flow parameters and average precipitation indicates that such effect is negligible, except for very large differences in area. Parameters that are derived from base-flow recession curves and are related to a common discharge per unit area have inherent advantages as indicators of effects of terrestrial characteristics of basins, because the.y are independent of areal variations in average annual precipitation. Winter base-flow parameters are also practically independent of the effects of evapotranspiration from ground water. However, in many parts of the region these advantages are reduced or nullified by the difficulties of defining base-flow recession curves, particularly winter curves, with sufficient accuracy. In the absence of suitable base-flow recession data and a suitable basis for adjusting parameters, the ratio of the discharge equaled or exceeded 90 percent of the time to the average discharge (Qtt/Qa), or a similar duration parameter, probably is the best indicator of the influence of terrestrial characteristics, although the ratio may vary somewhat with average precipitation. In a part of the region where geologic differences are large and areal variations in average precipitation are small, values of Qm/Qa for each major geologic unit were determined from streamflow records. From these values and the percentage of area represented by each unit, a ratio for each gaging station was computed. Comparison of these computed results with the observed results indicates that nearly all of the variation in the ratio is associated with variation in geology. The investigation indicates that the original assumptions are correct; average precipitation is the principal meteorological influence and geology is the principal terrestrial influence. Together these two factors account for a very large proportion of the variation in average runoff and low-flow characteristics

Sediment transport and evaluation of sediment surrogate ratings in the Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho, Water Years 2011–14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.; Fosness, Ryan L.; Etheridge, Alexandra B.

2015-12-14

Acoustic surrogate ratings were developed between backscatter data collected using acoustic Doppler velocity meters (ADVMs) and results of suspended-sediment samples. Ratings were successfully fit to various sediment size classes (total, fines, and sands) using ADVMs of different frequencies (1.5 and 3 megahertz). Surrogate ratings also were developed using variations of streamflow and seasonal explanatory variables. The streamflow surrogate ratings produced average annual sediment load estimates that were 8–32 percent higher, depending on site and sediment type, than estimates produced using the acoustic surrogate ratings. The streamflow surrogate ratings tended to overestimate suspended-sediment concentrations and loads during periods of elevated releases from Libby Dam as well as on the falling limb of the streamflow hydrograph. Estimates from the acoustic surrogate ratings more closely matched suspended-sediment sample results than did estimates from the streamflow surrogate ratings during these periods as well as for rating validation samples collected in water year 2014. Acoustic surrogate technologies are an effective means to obtain continuous, accurate estimates of suspended-sediment concentrations and loads for general monitoring and sediment-transport modeling. In the Kootenai River, continued operation of the acoustic surrogate sites and use of the acoustic surrogate ratings to calculate continuous suspended-sediment concentrations and loads will allow for tracking changes in sediment transport over time.

Determination of baseline periods of record for selected streamflow-gaging stations in and near Oklahoma for use in modeling applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.

2010-01-01

Use of historical streamflow data from a least-altered period of record can be used in calibration of various modeling applications that are used to characterize least-altered flow and predict the effects of proposed streamflow alteration. This information can be used to enhance water-resources planning. A baseline period of record was determined for selected streamflow-gaging stations that can be used as a calibration dataset for modeling applications. The baseline period of record was defined as a period that is least-altered by anthropogenic activity and has sufficient streamflow record length to represent extreme climate variability. Streamflow data from 171 stations in and near Oklahoma with a minimum of 10 complete water years of daily streamflow record through water year 2007 and drainage areas that were less than 2,500 square miles were considered for use in the baseline period analysis. The first step to determine the least-altered period of record was to evaluate station information by using previous publications, historical station record notes, and information gathered from oral and written communication with hydrographers familiar with selected stations. The second step was to indentify stations that had substantial effects from upstream regulation by evaluating the location and extent of dams in the drainage basin. The third step was (a) the analysis of annual hydrographs and included visual hydrograph analysis for selected stations with 20 or more years of streamflow record, (b) analysis of covariance of double-mass curves, and (c) Kendall's tau trend analysis to detect statistically significant trends in base flow, runoff, total flow, and base-flow index related to anthropogenic activity for selected stations with 15 or more years of streamflow record. A preliminary least-altered period of record for each stream was identified by removing the period of streamflow record when streams were substantially affected by anthropogenic activity. After streamflow record was removed from designation as a least-altered period, stations that did not have at least 10 years of remaining continuous streamflow record were considered to have an insufficient baseline period for modeling applications. An optimum minimum period of record was determined for each of the least-altered periods for each station to ensure a sufficient streamflow record length to provide a representative sample of annual climate variability. An optimum minimum period of 10 years or more was evaluated by analyzing the variability of annual precipitation for selected 5-, 10-, 15-, 25-, and 35-year periods for each of 20 climate divisions that contained stations used in the baseline period analysis. The distribution of annual precipitation was compared for each consecutive overlapping 5-year period to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The least-altered period of record for stations was also compared to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The results of this analysis were used to determine how many years of annual precipitation data were needed for the selected period to be statistically similar to the distribution of annual precipitation data for a long-term period, 1925-2007. Minimum optimum periods ranged from 10 to 35 years and varied by climate division. A final baseline period was determined for 111 stations that had a baseline period of at least 10 years of continuous streamflow record after the record-elimination process. A suitable baseline period of record for use in modeling applications could not be identified for 58 of the initial 171 stations because of substantial anthropogenic alteration of the stream or drainage basin and for 2 stations because the least-altered period of record was not representative of annual climate variability. The baseline period for each station was rated ?excellent?, ?good?, ?fair?, ?poor?, or ?no baseline period.? This rating was based on a qualitative evaluation of t

Continental U.S. streamflow trends from 1940 to 2009 and their relationships with watershed spatial characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.; Nelson, Stacy A. C.

2015-08-01

Changes in streamflow are an important area of ongoing research in the hydrologic sciences. To better understand spatial patterns in past changes in streamflow, we examined relationships between watershed-scale spatial characteristics and trends in streamflow. Trends in streamflow were identified by analyzing mean daily flow observations between 1940 and 2009 from 967 U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. Results indicated that streamflow across the continental U.S., as a whole, increased while becoming less extreme between 1940 and 2009. However, substantial departures from the continental U.S. (CONUS) scale pattern occurred at the regional scale, including increased annual maxima, decreased annual minima, overall drying trends, and changes in streamflow variability. A subset of watersheds belonging to a reference data set exhibited significantly smaller trend magnitudes than those observed in nonreference watersheds. Boosted regression tree models were applied to examine the influence of watershed characteristics on streamflow trend magnitudes at both the CONUS and regional scale. Geographic location was found to be of particular importance at the CONUS scale while local variability in hydroclimate and topography tended to have a strong influence on regional-scale patterns in streamflow trends. This methodology facilitates detailed, data-driven analyses of how the characteristics of individual watersheds interact with large-scale hydroclimate forces to influence how changes in streamflow manifest.

Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, Charles L.; Zwiers, Francis W.

2018-04-01

The Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in western North America, and home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in May-July. Nevertheless, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute nearly 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (univariate Spearman correlation with APF of ρ ^ = 0.64; 0.70 (observations; VIC simulation)), the snowmelt rate (ρ ^ = 0.43 in VIC), the ENSO and PDO indices (ρ ^ = -0.40; -0.41) and (ρ ^ = -0.35; -0.38), respectively, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax (ρ ^ = 0.26; 0.38), are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in understanding seasonal predictions or future projected streamflow changes.

Water resources data for Oregon, water year 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrett, Thomas A.; Hess, Glenn W.; House, Jon G.; Ruppert, Gregory P.; Courts, Mary-Lorraine

2005-01-01

The annual Oregon water data report is one of a series of annual reports that document hydrologic data gathered from the U.S. Geological Survey's surface- and ground-water data-collection networks in each State, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territories. These records of streamflow, ground-water levels, and quality of water provide the hydrologic information needed by State, local, Tribal, and Federal agencies and the private sector for developing and managing our Nation's land and water resources. This report contains water year 2004 data for both surface and ground water, including discharge records for 209 streamflow-gaging stations, 42 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, and 9 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; stage-only records for 6 gaging stations; stage and content records for 15 lakes and reservoirs; water-level records from 12 long-term observation wells; and water-quality records collected at 133 streamflow-gaging stations and 1 atmospheric deposition station.

Concentrations and annual fluxes for selected water-quality constituents from the USGS National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) 1996-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Valerie J.; Hooper, Richard P.; Aulenbach, Brent T.; Janet, Mary

2001-01-01

This report contains concentrations and annual mass fluxes (loadings) for a broad range of water-quality constituents measured during 1996-2000 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN). During this period, NASQAN operated a network of 40-42 stations in four of the largest river basins of the USA: the Colorado, the Columbia, the Mississippi (including the Missouri and Ohio), and the Rio Grande. The report contains surface-water quality data, streamflow data, field measurements (e.g. water temperature and pH), sediment-chemistry data, and quality-assurance data; interpretive products include annual and average loads, regression parameters for models used to estimate loads, sub-basin yield maps, maps depicting percent detections for censored constituents, and diagrams depicting flow-weighted average concentrations. Where possible, a regression model relating concentration to discharge and season was used for flux estimation. The interpretive context provided by annual loads includes identifying source and sink areas for constituents and estimating the loadings to receiving waters, such as reservoirs or the ocean.

Effects of urban development in the Puget Lowland, Washington, on interannual streamflow patterns: Consequences for channel form and streambed disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Booth, Derek B.; Burges, Stephen J.

2005-01-01

Recovery and protection of streams in urban areas depend on a comprehensive understanding of how human activities affect stream ecosystems. The hydrologic effects of urban development and the consequences for stream channel form and streambed stability were examined in 16 streams in the Puget Lowland, Washington, using three streamflow metrics that integrate storm‐scale effects of urban development over annual to decadal timescales: the fraction of time that streamflow exceeds the mean streamflow (TQmean), the coefficient of variation of annual maximum streamflow (CVAMF), and the fraction of time that streamflow exceeds the 0.5‐year flood (T0.5). Urban streams had low interannual variability in annual maximum streamflow and brief duration of frequent high flows, as indicated by significant correlations between road density and both CVAMFand T0.5. The broader distribution of streamflow indicated by TQmean may be affected by urban development, but differences in TQmean between streams are also likely a result of other physiographic factors. The increase in the magnitude of frequent high flows due to urban development but not their cumulative duration has important consequences for channel form and bed stability in gravel bed streams because geomorphic equilibrium depends on moderate duration streamflow (e.g., exceeded 10% of the time). Streams with low values of TQmean and T0.5 are narrower than expected from hydraulic geometry. Dimensionless boundary shear stress (t*) for the 0.5‐year flood was inversely related to T0.5 among the streams, indicating frequent and extensive bed disturbance in streams with low values of T0.5. Although stream channels expand and the size of bed material increases in response to urban streamflow patterns, these adjustments may be insufficient to reestablish the disturbance regime in urban streams because of the differential increase in the magnitude of frequent high flows causing disturbance relative to any changes in longer duration, moderate flows that establish a stable channel.

Annual Peak-Flow Frequency Characteristics and (or) Peak Dam-Pool-Elevation Frequency Characteristics of Dry Dams and Selected Streamflow-Gaging Stations in the Great Miami River Basin, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

2009-01-01

This report describes the results of a study to determine frequency characteristics of postregulation annual peak flows at streamflow-gaging stations at or near the Lockington, Taylorsville, Englewood, Huffman, and Germantown dry dams in the Miami Conservancy District flood-protection system (southwestern Ohio) and five other streamflow-gaging stations in the Great Miami River Basin further downstream from one or more of the dams. In addition, this report describes frequency characteristics of annual peak elevations of the dry-dam pools. In most cases, log-Pearson Type III distributions were fit to postregulation annual peak-flow values through 2007 (the most recent year of published peak-flow values at the time of this analysis) and annual peak dam-pool storage values for the period 1922-2008 to determine peaks with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years. For one streamflow-gaging station (03272100) with a short period of record, frequency characteristics were estimated by means of a process involving interpolation of peak-flow yields determined for an upstream and downstream gage. Once storages had been estimated for the various recurrence intervals, corresponding dam-pool elevations were determined from elevation-storage ratings provided by the Miami Conservancy District.

Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, E.G.; Todd, Walter M.; Coffeen, C.

2002-01-01

This study identified and examined differences in Southeast Alaskan streamflow patterns between the two most recent modes of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Identifying relationships between the PDO and specific regional phenomena is important for understanding climate variability, interpreting historical hydrological variability, and improving water-resources forecasting. Stream discharge data from six watersheds in Southeast Alaska were divided into cold-PDO (1947-1976) and warm-PDO (1977-1998) subsets. For all watersheds, the average annual streamflows during cold-PDO years were not significantly different from warm-PDO years. Monthly and seasonal discharges, however, did differ significantly between the two subsets, with the warm-PDO winter flows being typically higher than the cold-PDO winter flows and the warm-PDO summer flows being typically lower than the cold-PDO flows. These results were consistent with and driven by observed temperature and snowfall patterns for the region. During warm-PDO winters, precipitation fell as rain and ran-off immediately, causing higher than normal winter streamflow. During cold-PDO winters, precipitation was stored as snow and ran off during the summer snowmelt, creating greater summer streamflows. The Mendenhall River was unique in that it experienced higher flows for all seasons during the warm-PDO relative to the cold-PDO. The large amount of Mendenhall River discharge caused by glacial melt during warm-PDO summers offset any flow reduction caused by lack of snow accumulation during warm-PDO winters. The effect of the PDO on Southeast Alaskan watersheds differs from other regions of the Pacific Coast of North America in that monthly/seasonal discharge patterns changed dramatically with the switch in PDO modes but annual discharge did not. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent tree die-off has little effect on streamflow in contrast to expected increases from historical studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent bark beetle epidemics have caused regional-scale tree mortality in many snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments of western North America. Initial expectations of increased streamflow have not been supported by observations, and the basin-scale response of annual streamflow is largely unknown....

THE WATER BALANCE OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN AND ITS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

Historical precipitation, temperature and streamflow data for the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) are analyzed with the objective of developing simple statistical and water balance models of streamflow at the watershed's outlet. Annual streamflow is highly corre...

Assessment of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution in snowmelt period for a cold area using SWAT.

PubMed

Wang, Yu; Bian, Jianmin; Zhao, Yongsheng; Tang, Jie; Jia, Zhuo

2018-02-05

The source area of Liao River is a typical cold region in northeastern China, which experiences serious problems with agricultural nonpoint source pollution (NPS), it is important to understand future climate change impacts on NPS in the watershed. This issue has been investigated by coupling semi distributed hydrological model (SWAT), statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and global circulation model (GCMs). The results show that annual average temperature would rise by 2.1 °C (1.3 °C) in the 2080 s under scenario RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), and annual precipitation would increase by 67 mm (33 mm). The change in winter temperature and precipitation is most significant with an increase by 0.23 °C/10a (0.17 °C/10a) and 1.94 mm/10a (2.78 mm/10a). The future streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease by 19.05% (10.59%), 12.27% (8.81%) and 10.63% (6.11%), respectively. Monthly average streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease from March to November, and increase from December to February. This is because the increased precipitation and temperature in winter, which made the spring snowpack melting earlier. These study indicate the trends of nonpoint source pollution during the snowmelt period under climate change conditions, accordingly adaptation measures will be necessary.

On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Kam, Jonghun; Dunne, Krista A.

2018-01-01

Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E) to those of precipitation (P) and temperature. The theory is based on extensions of the Budyko water‐balance hypothesis, the Priestley‐Taylor theory for potential evapotranspiration ( ), and a linear model of interannual basin storage. The theory implies that the temperature affects streamflow by modifying evapotranspiration through a Clausius‐Clapeyron‐like relation and through the sensitivity of net radiation to temperature. We apply and test (1) a previously introduced “strong” extension of the Budyko hypothesis, which requires that the function linking temporal variations of the evapotranspiration ratio (E/P) and the index of dryness ( /P) at an annual time scale is identical to that linking interbasin variations of the corresponding long‐term means, and (2) a “weak” extension, which requires only that the annual evapotranspiration ratio depends uniquely on the annual index of dryness, and that the form of that dependence need not be known a priori nor be identical across basins. In application of the weak extension, the readily observed sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation contains crucial information about the sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration and, thence, to temperature. Implementation of the strong extension is problematic, whereas the weak extension appears to capture essential controls of the temperature effect efficiently.

Water in the Humboldt River Valley near Winnemucca, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Philip M.

1966-01-01

Most of the work of the interagency Humboldt River Research Project in the Winnemucca reach of the Humboldt River valley has been completed. More than a dozen State and Federal agencies and several private organizations and individuals participated in the study. The major objective of the project, which began in 1959, is to evaluate the water resources of the entire Humboldt River basin. However, because of the large size of the basin, most of the work during the first 5 years of the project was done in the Winnemucca area. The purpose of this report is to summarize briefly and simply the information regarding the water resources of the Winnemucca area-especially the quantitative aspects of the flow system-given in previous reports of the project. The Winnemucca reach of the Humboldt River valley, which is in north-central Nevada, is about 200 miles downstream from the headwaters of the Humboldt River and includes that part of the valley between the Comus and Rose Creek gaging stations. Average annual inflow to the storage area (the valley lowlands) in the Winnemucca reach in water years 1949-62 was about 250,000 acre-feet. Of this amount, about 68 percent was Humboldt River streamflow, as measured at the Comus gaging station, 23 percent was precipitation directly on the storage area, 6 percent was ground-water inflow, and about 3 percent was tributary streamflow. Average annual streamflow at the Rose Creek gaging station during the same period was about 155,000 acre-feet, or about 17,000 acre-feet less than that at the Comus gaging station. Nearly all the streamflow lost was consumed by evapotranspiration in the project area. Total average annual evapotranspiration loss during the period was about 115,000 acre-feet, or about 42 percent of the total average annual outflow. The most abundant ions in the ground and surface water in the area are commonly sodium and bicarbonate. Much of the water has a dissolved-solids content that ranges from 500 to 750 parts per million; however, locally, the dissolved-solids content of the ground water is more than 5,000 parts per million. The chemical quality of the Humboldt River, especially during periods of low flow, reflects the chemical quality of ground-water inflow from tributary areas that discharges into the river. Almost all water in the project area is moderately hard to very hard; otherwise, it is generally suitable for most uses. Increased ground-water development, the conjunctive use of ground and surface water, and increased irrigation efficiency would probably conserve much of the water presently consumed by nonbeneficial evapotranspiration. Intensive ground-water development, especially from the highly permeable medial gravel subunit, will, however, decrease the flow of the Humboldt River to the extent that some pumpage may not be offset by a corresponding decrease in natural evapotranspiration losses. Such streamflow depletions will therefore infringe upon downstream surface-water rights. The results of this study indicate that the Humboldt River and ground water in the unconsolidated deposits beneath and adjacent to the river in the Winnemucca area are closely related. Somewhat similar conditions probably exist elsewhere in the Humboldt River valley. Additional detailed studies are needed-both upstream and downstream from the Winnemucca area-to adequately define the flow system and the interrelations among the components of the system in the remainder of the valley. Before proceeding with additional detailed studies, however, a 1-year overall appraisal of the water resources of the basin should be considered. A major objective of this study would be to provide information that would help select the next subarea of the valley to be studied in detail and to decide which of the methods of study used in the Winnemucca area could be most effectively used in the future studies.

A fully distributed implementation of mean annual streamflow regional regression equations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, K.L.; Worstell, B.

2008-01-01

Estimates of mean annual streamflow are needed for a variety of hydrologic assessments. Away from gage locations, regional regression equations that are a function of upstream area, precipitation, and temperature are commonly used. Geographic information systems technology has facilitated their use for projects, but traditional approaches using the polygon overlay operator have been too inefficient for national scale applications. As an alternative, the Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used as a framework for a fully distributed implementation of mean annual streamflow regional regression equations. The raster “flow accumulation” operator was used to efficiently achieve spatially continuous parameterization of the equations for every 30 m grid cell of the conterminous United States (U.S.). Results were confirmed by comparing with measured flows at stations of the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, and their applications value demonstrated in the development of a national geospatial hydropower assessment. Interactive tools at the EDNA website make possible the fast and efficient query of mean annual streamflow for any location in the conterminous U.S., providing a valuable complement to other national initiatives (StreamStats and the National Hydrography Dataset Plus).

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; ...

2018-01-26

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that futuremore » disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.« less

A hybrid model to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow for an ungauged mountainous basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chong; Xu, Jianhua; Chen, Yaning; Bai, Ling; Chen, Zhongsheng

2018-04-01

To quantitatively assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow in an ungauged mountainous basin is a difficult and challenging work. In this study, a hybrid model combing downscaling method based on earth data products, back propagation artificial neural networks (BPANN) and weights connection method was developed to explore an approach for solving this problem. To validate the applicability of the hybrid model, the Kumarik River and Toshkan River, two headwaters of the Aksu River, were employed to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow by using this hybrid model. The conclusion is that the hybrid model presented a good performance, and the quantitative assessment results for the two headwaters are: (1) the precipitation respectively increased by 48.5 and 41.0 mm in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment, and the average annual temperature both increased by 0.1 °C in the two catchments during each decade from 1980 to 2012; (2) with the warming and wetting climate, the streamflow respectively increased 1.5 × 108 and 3.3 × 108 m3 per decade in the Kumarik River and the Toshkan River; and (3) the contribution of the temperature and precipitation to the streamflow, which were 64.01 ± 7.34, 35.99 ± 7.34 and 47.72 ± 8.10, 52.26 ± 8.10%, respectively in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment. Our study introduced a feasible hybrid model for the assessment of the impact of climate variability on streamflow, which can be used in the ungauged mountainous basin of Northwest China.

Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt

Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that futuremore » disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.« less

Estimation of Streamflow Characteristics for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Northeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Morgan, Timothy J.; Dutton, DeAnn M.; McCarthy, Peter M.

2009-01-01

Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) encompasses about 1.1 million acres (including Fort Peck Reservoir on the Missouri River) in northeastern Montana. To ensure that sufficient streamflow remains in the tributary streams to maintain the riparian corridors, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is negotiating water-rights issues with the Reserved Water Rights Compact Commission of Montana. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a study to gage, for a short period, selected streams that cross CMR, and analyze data to estimate long-term streamflow characteristics for CMR. The long-term streamflow characteristics of primary interest include the monthly and annual 90-, 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows and mean streamflows (Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, respectively), and the 1.5-, 2-, and 2.33- year peak flows (PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33, respectively). The Regional Adjustment Relationship (RAR) was investigated for estimating the monthly and annual Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, and the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33 for the short-term CMR gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as CMR stations). The RAR was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the long-term Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM on a monthly basis for the months of March through June, and also on an annual basis. For the months of September through January, the RAR regression equations did not provide acceptable results for any long-term streamflow characteristic. For the month of February, the RAR regression equations provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50 and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90, Q.80, and Q.20. For the months of July and August, the RAR provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50, Q.20, and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90 and Q.80. Estimation coefficients were developed for estimating the long-term streamflow characteristics for which the RAR did not provide acceptable results. The RAR also was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the PK1.5., PK2, and PK2.33 for the three CMR stations that lacked suitable peak-flow records. Methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites also were derived. Regression analyses that relate individual streamflow characteristics to various basin and climatic characteristics for gaging stations were performed to develop regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Final equations for the annual Q.50, Q.20, and QM are reported. Acceptable equations also were developed for estimating QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July, and Q.50, Q.20, and QM on an annual basis. However, equations for QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July were determined to be less consistent and reliable than the use of estimation coefficients applied to the regression equation results for the annual QM. Acceptable regression equations also were developed for the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33.

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in North Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.

2017-01-13

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics for ungaged streams in north Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, diversions, or urbanization. Selected low-flow frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 56 streamgage locations within north Georgia and 75 miles beyond the State’s borders in Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina were combined to form the final dataset used in the regional regression analysis. Because some of the streamgages in the study recorded zero flow, the final regression equations were developed using weighted left-censored regression analysis to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. The set of equations includes the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflow with the 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as 1Q10 and 7Q10), monthly 7Q10, and mean annual flow. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and relief ratio for the selected low-flow frequency statistics and drainage area and mean annual precipitation for mean annual flow. The average standard error of estimate was 13.7 percent for the mean annual flow regression equation and ranged from 26.1 to 91.6 percent for the selected low-flow frequency equations.The equations, which are based on data from streams with little to no flow alterations, can be used to provide estimates of the natural flows for selected ungaged stream locations in the area of Georgia north of the Fall Line. The regression equations are not to be used to estimate flows for streams that have been altered by the effects of major dams, surface-water withdrawals, groundwater withdrawals (pumping wells), diversions, or wastewater discharges. The regression equations should be used only for ungaged sites with drainage areas between 1.67 and 576 square miles, mean annual precipitation between 47.6 and 81.6 inches, and relief ratios between 0.146 and 0.607; these are the ranges of the explanatory variables used to develop the equations. An attempt was made to develop regional regression equations for the area of Georgia south of the Fall Line by using the same approach used during this study for north Georgia; however, the equations resulted with high average standard errors of estimates and poorly predicted flows below 0.5 cubic foot per second, which may be attributed to the karst topography common in that area.The final regression equations developed from this study are planned to be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. The StreamStats program provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for U.S. Geological Survey streamgage locations and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats also can compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in Georgia.

Regression equations for estimation of annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas using an L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2009-01-01

Annual peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of dams, levees, and other flood-control structures; and for design of roads, bridges, and culverts. Annual peak-streamflow frequency represents the peak streamflow for nine recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 250, and 500 years. Common methods for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged or unmonitored watersheds are regression equations for each recurrence interval developed for one or more regions; such regional equations are the subject of this report. The method is based on analysis of annual peak-streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (stations). Beginning in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, began a 3-year investigation concerning the development of regional equations to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. The investigation focuses primarily on 638 stations with 8 or more years of data from undeveloped watersheds and other criteria. The general approach is explicitly limited to the use of L-moment statistics, which are used in conjunction with a technique of multi-linear regression referred to as PRESS minimization. The approach used to develop the regional equations, which was refined during the investigation, is referred to as the 'L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach'. For the approach, seven unique distributions are fit to the sample L-moments of the data for each of 638 stations and trimmed means of the seven results of the distributions for each recurrence interval are used to define the station specific, peak-streamflow frequency. As a first iteration of regression, nine weighted-least-squares, PRESS-minimized, multi-linear regression equations are computed using the watershed characteristics of drainage area, dimensionless main-channel slope, and mean annual precipitation. The residuals of the nine equations are spatially mapped, and residuals for the 10-year recurrence interval are selected for generalization to 1-degree latitude and longitude quadrangles. The generalized residual is referred to as the OmegaEM parameter and represents a generalized terrain and climate index that expresses peak-streamflow potential not otherwise represented in the three watershed characteristics. The OmegaEM parameter was assigned to each station, and using OmegaEM, nine additional regression equations are computed. Because of favorable diagnostics, the OmegaEM equations are expected to be generally reliable estimators of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped and ungaged stream locations in Texas. The mean residual standard error, adjusted R-squared, and percentage reduction of PRESS by use of OmegaEM are 0.30log10, 0.86, and -21 percent, respectively. Inclusion of the OmegaEM parameter provides a substantial reduction in the PRESS statistic of the regression equations and removes considerable spatial dependency in regression residuals. Although the OmegaEM parameter requires interpretation on the part of analysts and the potential exists that different analysts could estimate different values for a given watershed, the authors suggest that typical uncertainty in the OmegaEM estimate might be about +or-0.1010. Finally, given the two ensembles of equations reported herein and those in previous reports, hydrologic design engineers and other analysts have several different methods, which represent different analytical tracks, to make comparisons of peak-streamflow frequency estimates for ungaged watersheds in the study area.

Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Future Runoff in the Luanhe River Basin in North China Using Markov and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, W.; Long, D.

2017-12-01

Both land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change exert significant impacts on runoff, which needs to be thoroughly examined in the context of urbanization, population growth, and climate change. The majority of studies focus on the impacts of either LUCC or climate on runoff in the upper reaches of the Panjiakou Reservoir in the Luanhe River basin, North China. In this study, first, two land use change matrices for periods 1970‒1980 and 1980‒2000 were constructed based on the theory of the Markov Chain which were used to predict the land use scenario of the basin in year 2020. Second, a distributed hydrological model, Soil Water Assessment Tools (SWAT), was set up and driven mainly by the China Gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA) product and outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP). Third, under the land use scenario in 2000, streamflow at the Chengde gauging station for the period 1998‒2014 was simulated with the CGDPA as input, and streamflow for the period 2015‒2025 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was simulated using the outputs from GCMs and compared under the land use scenarios in 2000 and 2020. Results show that during 2015‒2025, the ensemble average precipitation in summer (i.e., from June to August) may increase up to 20% but decrease by -16% in fall (i.e., from September to November). The streamflow may increase in all the seasons, particularly in spring (i.e., from March to May) and summer reaching 150% and 142%, respectively. Furthermore, the streamflow may increase even more when the land use scenario for the period 1998‒2025 remains the same as that in 2000. The minimum (61mm) and maximum (77mm) mean annual runoff depth occur under the RCP4.5 and RCP6 scenarios, respectively, compared with the mean annual observed streamflow of 33 mm from 1998 to 2014. Finally, we analyzed the correlation among the main land use types (i.e., agricultural land, forest, and pasture) and evapotranspiration, surface runoff contribution to streamflow (SURQ), groundwater contribution to streamflow (GWQ), and the sum of the surface runoff and groundwater contributions to streamflow (SSGQ), respectively. It was found that the increase in agricultural land may induce the increase in SURQ but the decrease in GWQ.

Hydrological impact of high-density small dams in a humid catchment, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, W.; Lei, H.; Yang, D.

2017-12-01

The Jiulong River basin is a humid catchment with a drainage area of 14,741 km2; however, it has over 1000 hydropower stations within it. Such catchment with high-density small dams is scarce in China. Yet few is known about the impact of high-density small dams on streamflow changes. To what extent the large number of dams alters the hydrologic patterns is a fundamental scientific issue for water resources management, flood control, and aquatic ecological environment protection. Firstly, trend and change point analyses are applied to determine the characteristics of inter-annual streamflow. Based on the detected change point, the study period is divided into two study periods, the ``natural'' and ``disturbed'' periods. Then, a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) and the fixing-changing method are adopted to evaluate the relative contributions of climate variations and damming to the changes in streamflow at each temporal scale (i.e., from daily, monthly to annual). Based on the simulated natural streamflow, the impact of dam construction on hydrologic alteration and aquatic ecological environment will be evaluated. The hydrologic signatures that will be investigated include flood peak, seasonality of streamflow, and the inter-annual variability of streamflow. In particular, the impacts of damming on aquatic ecological environment will be investigated using eco-flow metrics and indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) which contains 33 individual streamflow statistics that are closely related to aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study expect to provide a reference for reservoir operation considering both ecological and economic benefits of such operations in the catchment with high-density dams.

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Rosenberg, D. E.; DeRose, R. J.; Rittenour, T. M.

2018-02-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, reconstructions of global circulation, and potential differences among regional tree-ring chronologies related to tree species and geographic location. This approach is used to reconstruct 600 years of monthly streamflows at two sites on the Bear and Logan rivers in northern Utah. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies remain above zero (0.26-0.60) for all months except April and Pearson's correlation coefficients (R) are 0.94 and 0.88 for the Bear and Logan rivers, respectively, confirming that the model can adequately reproduce monthly flows during the reference period (10/1942 to 9/2015). Incorporating a flexible transition between the previous and concurrent annual reconstructed flows was the most important factor for model skill. Expanding the model to include global climate indices and regional tree-ring chronologies produced smaller, but still significant improvements in model fit. The model presented here is the only approach currently available to reconstruct monthly streamflows directly from tree-ring chronologies and climate reconstructions, rather than using resampling of the observed record. With reasonable estimates of monthly flow that extend back in time many centuries, water managers can challenge systems models with a larger range of natural variability in drought and pluvial events and better evaluate extreme events with recurrence intervals longer than the observed record. Establishing this natural baseline is critical when estimating future hydrologic risks under conditions of a non-stationary climate.

Technique for estimation of streamflow statistics in mineral areas of interest in Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Mack, Thomas J.

2011-01-01

A technique for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged stream sites in areas of mineral interest in Afghanistan using drainage-area-ratio relations of historical streamflow data was developed and is documented in this report. The technique can be used to estimate the following streamflow statistics at ungaged sites: (1) 7-day low flow with a 10-year recurrence interval, (2) 7-day low flow with a 2-year recurrence interval, (3) daily mean streamflow exceeded 90 percent of the time, (4) daily mean streamflow exceeded 80 percent of the time, (5) mean monthly streamflow for each month of the year, (6) mean annual streamflow, and (7) minimum monthly streamflow for each month of the year. Because they are based on limited historical data, the estimates of streamflow statistics at ungaged sites are considered preliminary.

Regional regression equations for estimation of natural streamflow statistics in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Capesius, Joseph P.; Stephens, Verlin C.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board and the Colorado Department of Transportation, developed regional regression equations for estimation of various streamflow statistics that are representative of natural streamflow conditions at ungaged sites in Colorado. The equations define the statistical relations between streamflow statistics (response variables) and basin and climatic characteristics (predictor variables). The equations were developed using generalized least-squares and weighted least-squares multilinear regression reliant on logarithmic variable transformation. Streamflow statistics were derived from at least 10 years of streamflow data through about 2007 from selected USGS streamflow-gaging stations in the study area that are representative of natural-flow conditions. Basin and climatic characteristics used for equation development are drainage area, mean watershed elevation, mean watershed slope, percentage of drainage area above 7,500 feet of elevation, mean annual precipitation, and 6-hour, 100-year precipitation. For each of five hydrologic regions in Colorado, peak-streamflow equations that are based on peak-streamflow data from selected stations are presented for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year instantaneous-peak streamflows. For four of the five hydrologic regions, equations based on daily-mean streamflow data from selected stations are presented for 7-day minimum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows and for 7-day maximum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows. Other equations presented for the same four hydrologic regions include those for estimation of annual- and monthly-mean streamflow and streamflow-duration statistics for exceedances of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90 percent. All equations are reported along with salient diagnostic statistics, ranges of basin and climatic characteristics on which each equation is based, and commentary of potential bias, which is not otherwise removed by log-transformation of the variables of the equations from interpretation of residual plots. The predictor-variable ranges can be used to assess equation applicability for ungaged sites in Colorado.

Effect of Drought on Streamflow and Stream-Water Quality in Colorado, July through September 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chafin, Daniel T.; Druliner, A. Douglas

2007-01-01

During 2002, Colorado experienced the State's worst drought since 1977. In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey entered into cooperative agreement with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment to evaluate the general effects of drought on the water quality of streams in Colorado during summer 2002 by analyzing a water-quality data set obtained during summer 2002 in cooperation with a variety of State and local governments. Water samples were collected at 148 stream sites in Colorado and were measured or analyzed for field properties, major ions, nutrients, organic carbon, bacteria, and dissolved and total recoverable metals. Mean annual streamflow was analyzed at 134 sites in Colorado, and mean summer (July-September) streamflow for 2002 was determined for 146 sites for water years 1978-2002. Mean annual streamflow for 2002 had an average percentile of 29.4 and mean summer streamflow for 2002 had an average percentile of 7.6 relative to 1978-2002. These results indicate that streamflow in Colorado was substantially less than median streamflow for the period and that the effect of drought on streamflow was greater during summer 2002 than during water year 2002 (October 1, 2001, through September 30, 2002). Few measured constituent concentrations or values were elevated or depressed on a widespread basis during summer 2002. Specific conductance was elevated (in the upper quartile relative to historical data) in five of the seven basins that had sufficient data for characterization, indicating that specific conductance likely was affected by drought in those basins. Chloride concentrations were elevated in three of five basins with sufficient data and indicate that chloride concentration generally was affected by drought in those basins. Sulfate concentration was elevated in four of six basins with sufficient data. The widespread elevation of specific conductance and concentrations of chloride and sulfate indicates that salinity generally was affected by drought in Colorado streams during July-September 2002, likely because streamflow at most sites was dominated by base flow of ground water, which usually has substantially greater salinity compared to runoff from precipitation. Total-recoverable iron and manganese concentrations were depressed (in the lower quartile of historical data) in the Arkansas River Basin, which likely was due to reduced land-surface washoff of sediment containing oxyhydroxides of these metals. Of the 246 water samples collected at 148 sites during the summer of 2002, constituents in 115 exceeded Colorado water-quality standards. Constituents that exceeded water-quality standards were pH (all 9.0 standard unit exceedances; 9 samples), chloride (1 sample), sulfate (9 samples), dissolved ammonia (10 samples), dissolved nitrite nitrogen (3 samples), E. coli (Escherichia coli) bacteria (34 samples, 20 in Arkansas River Basin), fecal-coliform bacteria (18 samples, all in Arkansas River Basin), dissolved copper (1 sample), dissolved iron (3 samples), total-recoverable iron (3 samples), dissolved manganese (13 samples), dissolved selenium (10 samples), and dissolved zinc (1 sample). Of these 115 exceedances, historical data were sufficient to conclude that 21 probably were affected by drought, that 39 probably were not affected by drought, and that 55 were of indeterminate nature. Specific conductance indicates that the San Juan River Basin (average percentile 95.2) experienced the greatest effects of drought on water quality during summer 2002 compared to other basins in Colorado, followed by the Upper Colorado (90.0) and Dolores River (85.7) Basins. The South Platte River Basin (70.9) experienced the least effect of drought, and the Yampa and White River Basin group (73.7) had the second smallest effect. The Gunnison River (82.1) and Arkansas River (81.2) Basins had intermediate drought effects. The Rio Grande had insufficient data to rank the relative effect of drought on salinity.

Glaciological and hydrological sensitivities in the Hindu Kush - Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, Joseph; Immerzeel, Walter

2016-04-01

Glacier responses to future climate change will affect hydrology at subbasin-scales. The main goal of this study is to assess glaciological and hydrological sensitivities of sub-basins throughout the Hindu Kush - Himalaya (HKH) region. We use a simple geometrical analysis based on a full glacier inventory and digital elevation model (DEM) to estimate sub-basin equilibrium line altitudes (ELA) from assumptions of steady-state accumulation area ratios (AARs). The ELA response to an increase in temperature is expressed as a function of mean annual precipitation, derived from a range of high-altitude studies. Changes in glacier contributions to streamflow in response to increased temperatures are examined for scenarios of both static and adjusted glacier geometries. On average, glacier contributions to streamflow increase by approximately 50% for a +1K warming based on a static geometry. Large decreases (-60% on average) occur in all basins when glacier geometries are instantaneously adjusted to reflect the new ELA. Finally, we provide estimates of sub-basin glacier response times that suggest a majority of basins will experience declining glacier contributions by the year 2100.

Streamflow, sediment-transport, and water-temperature characteristics of the three small watersheds in the Alsea River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, David Dell; Williams, Robert Charles

1971-01-01

Data collected during the prelogging period 1959-65 indicate an average annual runoff for Needle Branch and Deer and Flynn Creeks of 74.2, 75.1, and 77.7 inches, respectively. The measured precipitation at Flynn Creek of 92.9 inches was 5 inches less than at either Needle Branch or Deer Creek. Unit flood runoff during the prelogging period was found to be lowest on Flynn Creek and highest on Needle Branch. On Needle Branch, there appear to be two distinct low-flow patterns, one for a saturated and one for an unsaturated soil condition. The average annual sediment yield was highest on Flynn Creek, 321 tons per square mile, and lowest on Needle Branch, 166 tons per square mile. Maximum water temperatures were 62?F on Flynn Creek and 61?F on Needle Branch and Deer Creek.

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Daniel G.; Southard, Rodney E.; Koenig, Todd A.; Bender, David A.; Holmes, Robert R.

2014-01-01

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the middle Nueces River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Selected results of the model include streamflow yields for the subwatersheds and water-balance information for the Carrizo–Wilcox aquifer outcrop area. For the entire model domain, the area-weighted mean streamflow yield from 1961 to 2008 was 1.12 inches/year. The mean annual rainfall on the outcrop area during the 1961–2008 simulation period was 21.7 inches. Of this rainfall, an annual mean of 20.1 inches (about 93 percent) was simulated as evapotranspiration, 1.2 inches (about 6 percent) was simulated as groundwater recharge, and 0.5 inches (about 2 percent) was simulated as surface runoff.

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strauch, Kellan R.; Linard, Joshua I.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

Effects of water use and land use on streamflow and aquatic habitat in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Parker, Gene W.; Armstrong, David S.; Carlson, Carl S.

2010-01-01

Water withdrawals from surface-water reservoirs and groundwater have affected streamflow in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins. These effects are particularly evident in the upper Sudbury River Basin, which prompted the need to improve the understanding of water resources and aquatic habitat in these basins. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, developed a precipitation-runoff model that uses Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) to evaluate the effects of water use and projected future water-use and land-use change on streamflow. As part of this study, the aquatic habitat in the basins and the effects of streamflow alteration also were evaluated. Chapter 1 of the report covers the development of the HSPF model that focuses on the upper Sudbury River Basin (106 square miles) but covers the entire Sudbury and Assabet River Basins (339 square miles). The model was calibrated to an 11-year period (1993-2003) using observed or estimated streamflow at four streamgages. The model was then used to simulate long-term (1960-2004) streamflows to evaluate the effects of average 1993-2003 water use and projected 2030 water-use and land-use change over long-term climatic conditions. Simulations indicate that the average 1993-2003 withdrawals most altered streamflow relative to no withdrawals in small headwater subbasins where the ratios of mean annual withdrawals to mean annual streamflow are the highest. The effects of withdrawals are also appreciable in other parts of the upper Sudbury River Basin as a result of the perpetuation of the effects of large withdrawals in upstream reaches or in subbasins that also have a high ratio of withdrawal to streamflow. The simulated effects of potential 2030 water-use and land-use change indicate small decreases in flows as a result of increased water demands, but these flow alterations were offset as a result of decreased evapotranspiration associated with the loss of deep-rooted vegetation. Simulations of reactivating production wells near the north end of Lake Cochituate indicate pumping could substantially affect lake levels and flows at the lake outlet or in nearby reaches in the Sudbury River during periods of low flow, but the effects vary depending on the source of the water to the wells, which is largely unknown. Chapter 2 of the report covers the fish-community assessment and comparison of streamflow-setting standards for protecting aquatic habitat. The fish-community assessment indicates the main stems of the Sudbury and Assabet Rivers are dominated by macrohabitat generalists. Water temperatures recorded in seven free-flowing reaches in the upper Sudbury River Basin at three sites unaffected by withdrawals or impoundments are generally suitable for cold-water fish; however, summer temperatures often rose to a level considered critical to long-term survival of brook trout. At four sites downstream from withdrawals or reservoirs, or both, summer water temperatures were often in the upper critical range for brook trout survival. Physically and statistically based methods for determining streamflows for protecting aquatic habitat were applied at 10 selected riffle sites in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins. Physically based methods, R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter, use site-specific physical and hydraulic information and a one-dimensional hydraulics model, HEC-RAS, to determine flows that meet the criteria set forth by the method. The median flow that meets 2-of-3 of the R2Cross hydraulic criteria (percentage of bankfull wetted perimeter, average velocity, and mean depth) ranged from about 0.07 to 0.72 cubic feet per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) with an overall median of about 0.24 ft3/s/mi2; the median Wetted-Perimeter target flow ranged from about 0.10 to 0.51 ft3/s/mi2 with an overall median of about 0.25 ft3/s/mi2. Statistically based methods?Tennant, New England Aquatic Base Flow (ABF)

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, Robert L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2000-01-01

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

Surface waters of the Washita River basin in Oklahoma--magnitude, distribution, and quality of streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.

1958-01-01

Analysis of streamflow data shows that water supply in the Washita River basin is variable, ranging from substantial amounts and almost continuous flow in the Washita River in the lower end of the basin to somewhat limited and intermittent flow in the upper part of the basin. The total yield of the basin averages 1,557,000 acre-ft per year, of which somewhat less than 1.3 percent is contributed by headwater areas in Texas. The surface waters are generally of acceptable quality for drinking purposes, excellent for irrigation uses, and suitable for many industrial purposes. In Oklahoma the high amounts of runoff tend to occur in the spring months. High runoff may occur during any month in the year but, in general, the available streamflow is relatively small in the summer. Most tributary streams have little sustained base flow and many are dry at times each year. Because of the high variability in flow, development of storage will be necessary to attain maximum utilization of the available water supplies. This report gives the average discharge at most gaging stations and at several additional sites for the 16-year period October 1938 to September 1954, used as a standard period in this report. Data are also shown on water available at several gaging stations and other sites for a given percentage of the time during the 16-year standard period. For several gaging stations data are given on minimum discharges for periods of various length during the most critical periods of record. For all gaging stations a summary of available basic data on streamflow is presented on a monthly annual basis. For other sites at which discharge measurements have been made, a tabulation of observed discharge is given. (available as photostat copy only)

Techniques for estimating monthly mean streamflow at gaged sites and monthly streamflow duration characteristics at ungaged sites in central Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, G.W.; Bohman, L.R.

1996-01-01

Techniques for estimating monthly mean streamflow at gaged sites and monthly streamflow duration characteristics at ungaged sites in central Nevada were developed using streamflow records at six gaged sites and basin physical and climatic characteristics. Streamflow data at gaged sites were related by regression techniques to concurrent flows at nearby gaging stations so that monthly mean streamflows for periods of missing or no record can be estimated for gaged sites in central Nevada. The standard error of estimate for relations at these sites ranged from 12 to 196 percent. Also, monthly streamflow data for selected percent exceedence levels were used in regression analyses with basin and climatic variables to determine relations for ungaged basins for annual and monthly percent exceedence levels. Analyses indicate that the drainage area and percent of drainage area at altitudes greater than 10,000 feet are the most significant variables. For the annual percent exceedence, the standard error of estimate of the relations for ungaged sites ranged from 51 to 96 percent and standard error of prediction for ungaged sites ranged from 96 to 249 percent. For the monthly percent exceedence values, the standard error of estimate of the relations ranged from 31 to 168 percent, and the standard error of prediction ranged from 115 to 3,124 percent. Reliability and limitations of the estimating methods are described.

Recent tree die-off has little effect on streamflow in contrast to expected increases from historical studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, Joel A.; Somor, Andrew J.; Harpold, Adrian A.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Breshears, David D.; Troch, Peter A.; Gochis, David J.; Scott, Russell L.; Meddens, Arjan J. H.; Brooks, Paul D.

2015-12-01

Recent bark beetle epidemics have caused regional-scale tree mortality in many snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments of western North America. Initial expectations of increased streamflow have not been supported by observations, and the basin-scale response of annual streamflow is largely unknown. Here we quantified annual streamflow responses during the decade following tree die-off in eight infested catchments in the Colorado River headwaters and one nearby control catchment. We employed three alternative empirical methods: (i) double-mass comparison between impacted and control catchments, (ii) runoff ratio comparison before and after die-off, and (iii) time-trend analysis using climate-driven linear models. In contrast to streamflow increases predicted by historical paired catchment studies and recent modeling, we did not detect streamflow changes in most basins following die-off, while one basin consistently showed decreased streamflow. The three analysis methods produced generally consistent results, with time-trend analysis showing precipitation was the strongest predictor of streamflow variability (R2 = 74-96%). Time-trend analysis revealed post-die-off streamflow decreased in three catchments by 11-29%, with no change in the other five catchments. Although counter to initial expectations, these results are consistent with increased transpiration by surviving vegetation and the growing body of literature documenting increased snow sublimation and evaporation from the subcanopy following die-off in water-limited, snow-dominated forests. The observations presented here challenge the widespread expectation that streamflow will increase following beetle-induced forest die-off and highlight the need to better understand the processes driving hydrologic response to forest disturbance.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Jason M.

2010-01-01

Peak-streamflow regression equations were determined for estimating flows with exceedance probabilities from 50 to 0.2 percent for the state of Oklahoma. These regression equations incorporate basin characteristics to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency throughout the state by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. The most statistically significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, mean-annual precipitation, and main-channel slope. The regression equations are applicable for watershed basins with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation. The resulting regression equations had a standard model error ranging from 31 to 46 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at 231 streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2008 were used for the regression analysis. Gage peak-streamflow estimates were used from previous work unless 2008 gaging-station data were available, in which new peak-streamflow estimates were calculated. The U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application was used to obtain the independent variables required for the peak-streamflow regression equations. Limitations on the use of the regression equations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are described. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climate characteristics, and the peak-streamflow frequency estimates for the 231 gaging stations in and near Oklahoma are listed. Methodologies are presented to estimate peak streamflows at ungaged sites by using estimates from gaging stations on unregulated streams. For ungaged sites on urban streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency.

Hydrology of Eagle Creek Basin and effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow, 1969-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matherne, Anne Marie; Myers, Nathan C.; McCoy, Kurt J.

2010-01-01

Urban and resort development and drought conditions have placed increasing demands on the surface-water and groundwater resources of the Eagle Creek Basin, in southcentral New Mexico. The Village of Ruidoso, New Mexico, obtains 60-70 percent of its water from the Eagle Creek Basin. The village drilled four production wells on Forest Service land along North Fork Eagle Creek; three of the four wells were put into service in 1988 and remain in use. Local citizens have raised questions as to the effects of North Fork well pumping on flow in Eagle Creek. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Village of Ruidoso, conducted a hydrologic investigation from 2007 through 2009 of the potential effect of the North Fork well field on streamflow in North Fork Eagle Creek. Mean annual precipitation for the period of record (1942-2008) at the Ruidoso climate station is 22.21 inches per year with a range from 12.27 inches in 1970 to 34.81 inches in 1965. Base-flow analysis indicates that the 1970-80 mean annual discharge, direct runoff, and base flow were 2,260, 1,440, and 819 acre-ft/yr, respectively, and for 1989-2008 were 1,290, 871, and 417 acre-ft/yr, respectively. These results indicate that mean annual discharge, direct runoff, and base flow were less during the 1989-2008 period than during the 1970-80 period. Mean annual precipitation volume for the study area was estimated to be 12,200 acre-feet. Estimated annual evapotranspiration for the study area ranged from 8,730 to 8,890 acre-feet. Estimated annual basin yield for the study area was 3,390 acre-ft or about 28 percent of precipitation. On the basis of basin-yield computations, annual recharge was estimated to be 1,950 acre-ft, about 16 percent of precipitation. Using a chloride mass-balance method, groundwater recharge over the study area was estimated to average 490 acre-ft, about 4.0 percent of precipitation. Because the North Fork wells began pumping in 1988, 1969-80 represents the pre-groundwater-pumping period, and 1988-2009 represents the groundwater-pumping period. The 5-year moving average for precipitation at the Ruidoso climate station shows years of below-average precipitation during both time periods, but no days of zero flow were recorded for the 11-year period 1970-80 and no-flow days were recorded in 11 of 20 years for the 1988-2009 period. View report for unabridged abstract.

A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Stanley, Andrea K.

2014-01-01

This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas they were lower during the evaluation period. The shape of the annual hydrographs for the simulated-natural daily streamflow values matched the shape of the hydrographs for the reconstructed-natural values for most of the calibration period, but daily streamflow values were underestimated during the evaluation period for water years 1996–1998. The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008).

Predicting streamflow response to fire-induced landcover change: implications of parameter uncertainty in the MIKE SHE model.

PubMed

McMichael, Christine E; Hope, Allen S

2007-08-01

Fire is a primary agent of landcover transformation in California semi-arid shrubland watersheds, however few studies have examined the impacts of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in these basins. While it may seem intuitive that larger fires will have a greater impact on streamflow response than smaller fires in these watersheds, the nature of these relationships has not been determined. The effects of fire size on seasonal and annual streamflow responses were investigated for a medium-sized basin in central California using a modified version of the MIKE SHE model which had been previously calibrated and tested for this watershed using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. Model simulations were made for two contrasting periods, wet and dry, in order to assess whether fire size effects varied with weather regime. Results indicated that seasonal and annual streamflow response increased nearly linearly with fire size in a given year under both regimes. Annual flow response was generally higher in wetter years for both weather regimes, however a clear trend was confounded by the effect of stand age. These results expand our understanding of the effects of fire size on hydrologic response in chaparral watersheds, but it is important to note that the majority of model predictions were largely indistinguishable from the predictive uncertainty associated with the calibrated model - a key finding that highlights the importance of analyzing hydrologic predictions for altered landcover conditions in the context of model uncertainty. Future work is needed to examine how alternative decisions (e.g., different likelihood measures) may influence GLUE-based MIKE SHE streamflow predictions following different size fires, and how the effect of fire size on streamflow varies with other factors such as fire location.

Changes in flow in the Beaver-North Canadian River basin upstream from Canton Lake, western Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Kenneth L.; Tortorelli, Robert L.

1997-01-01

This report presents the results of an evaluation of hydrologic data for the Beaver-North Canadian River basin upstream from Canton Lake in western Oklahoma. It examines the climatic and hydrologic data for evidence of trends. The hydrologic data examined includes total annual flow, base flow, and annual peak discharges. This study was conducted to determine if there is evidence of trends present in hydrologic and climatic data. All available streamflow-gaging station data, with at least 10 or more years of record, were examined for trends. In addition, the data were divided into an 'early' period (ending in 1971), representing conditions before ground-water levels had declined appreciably, and a 'recent' period (1978-1994), reflecting the condition of declining ground-water levels, including the effects of storage reservoirs. Tests for trend, moving averages, and comparisons of median and average flows for an early period (ending in 1971) with those for the recent period (1978-1994) show that the total annual volume of flow and the magnitudes of instantaneous annual peak discharges measured at most gaging stations in the Beaver- North Canadian River basin have decreased in recent years. Precipitation records for the panhandle, however, show no corresponding changes. The changes in flow are most pronounced in the headwaters upstream from Woodward, but also are evident at Woodward and near Seiling, which represents the inflow to Canton Lake. The average annual discharge decreased between the early period and the recent period by the following amounts: near Guymon, 18,000 acre-feet; at Beaver, 68,000 acre-feet; at Woodward, 72,000 acre-feet; and near Seiling, 63,000 acre-feet. These decreases, expressed as a percentage of the average flows for the early period, were 91 percent near Guymon, 82 percent at Beaver, 49 percent at Woodward, and 37 percent near Seiling. The medians of the annual peak discharges decreased from the early period to the recent period by the following amounts: near Guymon, 98 percent; at Beaver, 86 percent; at Woodward, 80 percent; and near Seiling, 53 percent. The Guymon gage is not affected by reservoirs; the other three mainstem gaging stations are influenced by reservoirs, but the decreases in annual peak discharges are greater than can be explained by storage in those reservoirs. Base flows have undergone substantial change, but unlike the annual volumes the base flows show some increases and some decreases. Flow duration analyses show a shift in the distribution of annual flows. Less contribution is coming from large floods that formerly added substantially to the yearly average flows. Near Seiling, for example, the magnitudes of the large flows that occur less than about 20 percent of the time were greatly reduced in the recent period. A primary mechanism producing these decreased streamflows appears to be the depletion of ground water in the High Plains aquifer that underlies more than 90 percent of the basin. Changes in farming and conservation practices and in water use also may be having an effect.

Sedimentation and chemical quality of surface water in the Heart River drainage basin, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maderak, Marion L.

1966-01-01

The Heart River drainage basin of southwestern North Dakota comprises an area of 3,365 square miles and lies within the Missouri Plateau of the Great Plains province. Streamflow of the Heart River and its tributaries during 1949-58 was directly proportional to .the drainage area. After the construction of Heart Butte Dam in 1949 and Dickinson Dam in 1950, the mean annual streamflow near Mandan was decreased an estimated 10 percent by irrigation, evaporation from the two reservoirs, and municipal use. Processes that contribute sediment to the Heart River are mass wasting, advancement of valley heads, and sheet, lateral stream, and gully erosion. In general, glacial deposits, terraces, and bars of Quaternary age are sources of sand and larger sediment, and the rocks of Tertiary age are sources of clay, silt. and sand. The average annual suspended-sediment discharges near Mandan were estimated to be 1,300,000 tons for 1945-49 and 710,000 tons for 1970-58. The percentage composition of ions in water of the Heart River, based on average concentrations in equivalents per million for selected ranges of streamflow, changes with flow and from station to station. During extremely low flows the water contains a large percentage of sodium and about equal percentages of bicarbonate and .sulfate, and during extremely high flows the water contains a large percentage of calcium plus magnesium and bicarbonate. The concentrations, in parts per million, of most of the ions vary inversely with flow. The water in the reservoirs--Edward Arthur Patterson Lake and Lake Tschida--during normal or above-normal runoff is of suitable quality for public use. Generally, because of medium or high salinity hazards, the successful long-term use of Heart River water for irrigation will depend on a moderate amount of leaching, adequate drainage, ,and the growing of crops that have moderate or good salt tolerance.

Intensified pluvial conditions during the twentieth century in the inland Heihe River Basin in arid northwestern China over the past millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Chun; Yang, Bao; Burchardt, Iris; Hu, Xiaoli; Kang, Xingcheng

2010-06-01

Past streamflow variability is of special significance in the inland river basin, i.e., the Heihe River Basin in arid northwestern China, where water shortage is a serious environmental and social problem. However, the current knowledge of issues related to regional water resources management and long-term planning and management is limited by the lack of long-term hydro-meteorological records. Here we present a 1009-year annual streamflow (August-July) reconstruction for the upstream of the Heihe River in the arid northwestern China based on a well-replicated Qilian juniper ( Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronology. This reconstruction accounts for 46.9% of the observed instrumental streamflow variance during the period 1958-2006. Considerable multidecadal to centennial flow variations below and above the long-term average are displayed in the millennium streamflow reconstruction. These periods 1012-1053, 1104-1212, 1259-1352, 1442-1499, 1593-1739 and 1789-1884 are noteworthy for the persistence of low-level river flow, and for the fact that these low streamflow events are not found in the observed instrumental hydrological record during the recent 50 years. The 20th century witnessed intensified pluvial conditions in the upstream of the Heihe River in the arid northwestern China in the context of the last millennium. Comparison with other long-term hydrological reconstructions indicates that the intensification of the hydrological cycle in the twentieth century from different regions could be attributable to regional to large-scale temperature increase during this time. Furthermore, from a practical perspective, the streamflow reconstruction can serve as a robust database for the government to work out more scientific and more reasonable water allocation alternatives for the Heihe River Basin in arid northwestern China.

Water budgets for selected watersheds in the Delaware River basin, eastern Pennsylvania and western New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Buxton, Debra E.

2005-01-01

This pilot study, done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Delaware River Basin Commission, developed annual water budgets using available data for five watersheds in the Delaware River Basin with different degrees of urbanization and different geological settings. A basin water budget and a water-use budget were developed for each watershed. The basin water budget describes inputs to the watershed (precipitation and imported water), outputs of water from the watershed (streamflow, exported water, leakage, consumed water, and evapotranspiration), and changes in ground-water and surface-water storage. The water-use budget describes water withdrawals in the watershed (ground-water and surface-water withdrawals), discharges of water in the watershed (discharge to surface water and ground water), and movement of water of water into and out of the watershed (imports, exports, and consumed water). The water-budget equations developed for this study can be applied to any watershed in the Delaware River Basin. Data used to develop the water budgets were obtained from available long-term meteorological and hydrological data-collection stations and from water-use data collected by regulatory agencies. In the Coastal Plain watersheds, net ground-water loss from unconfined to confined aquifers was determined by using ground-water-flow-model simulations. Error in the water-budget terms is caused by missing data, poor or incomplete measurements, overestimated or underestimated quantities, measurement or reporting errors, and the use of point measurements, such as precipitation and water levels, to estimate an areal quantity, particularly if the watershed is hydrologically or geologically complex or the data-collection station is outside the watershed. The complexity of the water budgets increases with increasing watershed urbanization and interbasin transfer of water. In the Wissahickon Creek watershed, for example, some ground water is discharged to streams in the watershed, some is exported as wastewater, and some is exported for public supply. In addition, ground water withdrawn outside the watershed is imported for public supply or imported as wastewater for treatment and discharge in the watershed. A GIS analysis was necessary to quantify many of the water-budget components. The 89.9-square mile East Branch Brandywine Creek watershed in Pennsylvania is a rural watershed with reservoir storage that is underlain by fractured rock. Water budgets were developed for 1977-2001. Average annual precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration were 46.89, 21.58, and 25.88 inches, respectively. Some water was imported (average of 0.68 inches) into the watershed for public-water supply and as wastewater for treatment and discharge; these imports resulted in a net gain of water to the watershed. More water was discharged to East Branch Brandywine Creek than was withdrawn from it; the net discharge resulted in an increase in streamflow. Most ground water was withdrawn (average of 0.25 inches) for public-water supply. Surface water was withdrawn (average of 0.58 inches) for public-water and industrial supply. Discharge of water by sewage-treatment plants and industries (average of 1.22 inches) and regulation by Marsh Creek Reservoir caused base flow to appear an average of 7.2 percent higher than it would have been without these additional sources. On average, 67 percent of the difference was caused by sewage-treatment-plant and industrial discharges, and 33 percent was caused by regulation of the Marsh Creek Reservoir. Water imports, withdrawals, and discharges have been increasing as the watershed becomes increasingly urbanized. The 64-square mile Wissahickon Creek watershed in Pennsylvania is an urban watershed underlain by fractured rock. Water budgets were developed for 1987-98. Average annual precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration were 47.23, 22.24, and 23.12 inches, respectively. The watershed is highly u

Regional regression models of watershed suspended-sediment discharge for the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, David C.; Vogel, Richard M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-11-01

SummaryEstimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1-8, exhibited prediction R2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

Regional regression models of watershed suspended-sediment discharge for the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, David C.; Vogel, Richard M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-01-01

Estimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1–8, exhibited prediction R2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

Deforestation effects on soil moisture, streamflow, and water balance in the central Appalachians

Treesearch

James H. Patric; James H. Patric

1973-01-01

Soil moisture, precipitation, and streamflow were measured on three watersheds in West Virginia, two deforested and one forested. Water content of barren soil always exceeded that of forest soil throughout the growing season and especially in dry weather. Streamflow increased 10 inches annually on the watersheds that were cleared, most of the increase occurring between...

Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2015-01-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Basin average annual ET was found to be sensitive to changes in CO2 concentration and temperature, while total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were sensitive to changes in precipitation. The basin hydrological components were predicted to increase with seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change scenarios. Strong increasing trends were predicted for total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, indicating exacerbation of flooding potential during August–October, but strong decreasing trends were predicted, indicating exacerbation of drought potential during May–July of the 21st century. The model has potential to facilitate strategic decision making through scenario generation integrating climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation policies to ensure optimized allocation of water resources under a variable and changing climate.

Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Implications for Downstream Riparian Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Block, P. J.; Hammond, M.; King, A.

2013-12-01

Ethiopia has begun seriously developing their significant hydropower potential by launching construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River to facilitate local and regional growth. Although this has required substantial planning on Ethiopia's part, no policy dictating the reservoir filling rate strategy has been publicly issued. This filling stage will have clear implications on downstream flows in Sudan and Egypt, complicated by evaporative losses, climate variability, and climate change. In this study, various filling policies and future climate states are simultaneously explored to infer potential streamflow reductions at Lake Nasser, providing regional decision-makers with a set of plausible, justifiable, and comparable outcomes. Schematic of the model framework Box plots of 2017-2032 percent change in annual average streamflow at Lake Nasser for each filling policy constructed from the 100 time-series and weighted precipitation changes. All values are relative to the no dam policy and no changes to future precipitation.

Regional regression equations to estimate peak-flow frequency at sites in North Dakota using data through 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2015-08-06

Annual peak-flow frequency data from 231 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in North Dakota and parts of Montana, South Dakota, and Minnesota, with 10 or more years of unregulated peak-flow record, were used to develop regional regression equations for exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 using generalized least-squares techniques. Updated peak-flow frequency estimates for 262 streamflow-gaging stations were developed using data through 2009 and log-Pearson Type III procedures outlined by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. An average generalized skew coefficient was determined for three hydrologic zones in North Dakota. A StreamStats web application was developed to estimate basin characteristics for the regional regression equation analysis. Methods for estimating a weighted peak-flow frequency for gaged sites and ungaged sites are presented.

Streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and characterization of surface-water and ground-water quality, southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara counties, California, 1996-97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Metzger, Loren F.

2002-01-01

San Francisquito Creek is an important source of recharge to the 22-square-mile San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan ground-water subbasin in the southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara Counties of California. Ground water supplies as much as 20 percent of the water to some area communities. Local residents are concerned that infiltration and consequently ground-water recharge would be reduced if additional flood-control measures are implemented along San Francisquito Creek. To improve the understanding of the surface-water/ground-water interaction between San Francisquito Creek and the San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and determined the chemical quality and isotopic composition of surface and ground water in the study area.Streamflow was measured at 13 temporary streamflow-measurement stations to determine streamflow gains and losses along a 8.4-mile section of San Francisquito Creek. A series of five seepage runs between April 1996 and May 1997 indicate that losses in San Francisquito Creek were negligible until it crossed the Pulgas Fault at Sand Hill Road. Streamflow losses increased between Sand Hill Road and Middlefield Road where the alluvial deposits are predominantly coarse-grained and the water table is below the bottom of the channel. The greatest streamflow losses were measured along a 1.8-mile section of the creek between the San Mateo Drive bike bridge and Middlefield Road; average losses between San Mateo Drive and Alma Street and from there to Middlefield Road were 3.1 and 2.5 acre-feet per day, respectively.Downstream from Middlefield Road, streamflow gains and losses owing to seepage may be masked by urban runoff, changes in bank storage, and tidal effects from San Francisco Bay. Streamflow gains measured between Middlefield Road and the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue may be attributable to urban runoff and (or) ground-water inflow. Water-level measurements from nearby wells indicate that the regional water table may coincide with the channel bottom along this reach of San Francisquito Creek, particularly during the winter and early spring when water levels usually reach their maximum. Streamflow losses resumed below the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue, extending downstream to Newell Road. Discharge from a large storm drain between Newell Road and East Bayshore Road may account for the streamflow gains measured between these sites. Streamflow gains were measured between East Bayshore Road and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, but this reach is difficult to characterize because of the probable influence of high tides.Estimated average streamflow losses totaled approximately 1,050 acre-feet per year for the reaches between USGS stream gage 11164500 at Stanford University (upstream of Junipero Serra Boulevard) and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, including approximately 595 acre-feet per year for the 1.8-mile section between San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road. Approximately 58 percent, or 550 acre-feet, of the total estimated average annual recharge from San Francisquito Creek occurs between the San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road sites.The chemical composition of San Francisquito Creek water varies as a function of seasonal changes in hydrologic conditions. Measurements of specific conductance indicate that during dry weather and low flow, the dissolved-solids concentrations tends to be high, and during wet weather, the concentration tends to be low owing to dilution by surface water. Compared with water samples from upstream sites at USGS stream gage 11164500 and San Mateo Drive, the samples from the downstream sites at Alma Street and Woodland Avenue had low specific conductance; low concentrations of magnesium, sodium, sulfate, chloride, boron, and total dissolved solids; high nutrient concentrations; and light isotopic compositions indicating that urban runoff constitutes most of the streamflow

Streamflow monitoring and statistics for development of water rights claims for Wild and Scenic Rivers, Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness, Idaho, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.; Fosness, Ryan L.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), collected streamflow data in 2012 and estimated streamflow statistics for stream segments designated "Wild," "Scenic," or "Recreational" under the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System in the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness in southwestern Idaho. The streamflow statistics were used by BLM to develop and file a draft, federal reserved water right claim in autumn 2012 to protect federally designated "outstanding remarkable values" in the stream segments. BLM determined that the daily mean streamflow equaled or exceeded 20 and 80 percent of the time during bimonthly periods (two periods per month) and the bankfull streamflow are important streamflow thresholds for maintaining outstanding remarkable values. Prior to this study, streamflow statistics estimated using available datasets and tools for the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness were inaccurate for use in the water rights claim. Streamflow measurements were made at varying intervals during February–September 2012 at 14 monitoring sites; 2 of the monitoring sites were equipped with telemetered streamgaging equipment. Synthetic streamflow records were created for 11 of the 14 monitoring sites using a partial‑record method or a drainage-area-ratio method. Streamflow records were obtained directly from an operating, long-term streamgage at one monitoring site, and from discontinued streamgages at two monitoring sites. For 10 sites analyzed using the partial-record method, discrete measurements were related to daily mean streamflow at a nearby, telemetered “index” streamgage. Resulting regression equations were used to estimate daily mean and annual peak streamflow at the monitoring sites during the full period of record for the index sites. A synthetic streamflow record for Sheep Creek was developed using a drainage-area-ratio method, because measured streamflows did not relate well to any index site to allow use of the partial-record method. The synthetic and actual daily mean streamflow records were used to estimate daily mean streamflow that was exceeded 80, 50, and 20 percent of the time (80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedances) for bimonthly and annual periods. Bankfull streamflow statistics were calculated by fitting the synthetic and actual annual peak streamflow records to a log Pearson Type III distribution using Bulletin 17B guidelines in the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. The coefficients of determination (R2) for the regressions between the monitoring and index sites ranged from 0.74 for Wickahoney Creek to 0.98 for the West Fork Bruneau River and Deep Creek. Confidence in computed streamflow statistics is highest among other sites for the East Fork Owyhee River and the West Fork Bruneau River on the basis of regression statistics, visual fit of the related data, and the range and number of streamflow measurements. Streamflow statistics for sites with the greatest uncertainty included Big Jacks, Little Jacks, Cottonwood, Wickahoney, and Sheep Creeks. The uncertainty in computed streamflow statistics was due to a number of factors which included the distance of index sites relative to monitoring sites, relatively low streamflow conditions that occurred during the study, and the limited number and range of streamflow measurements. However, the computed streamflow statistics are considered the best possible estimates given available datasets in the remote study area. Streamflow measurements over a wider range of hydrologic and climatic conditions would improve the relations between streamflow characteristics at monitoring and index sites. Additionally, field surveys are needed to verify if the streamflows selected for the water rights claims are sufficient for maintaining outstanding remarkable values in the Wild and Scenic rivers included in the study.

Development of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate unregulated streamflow in the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, K.J.

2011-01-01

This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4 percent higher than observed for the test period. Downstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was 17 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 12 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow downstream from the reservoir was 13 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 6 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Calibrating to solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and snow-covered area improved the model representation of evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt processes. Simulated basin mean monthly solar radiation values for both the calibration and test periods were within 9 percent of observed values except during the month of December (28 percent different). Simulated basin potential evapotranspiration values for both the calibration and test periods were within 10 percent of observed values except during the months of January (100 percent different) and February (13 percent different). The larger percent errors in simulated potential evaporation occurred in the winter months when observed potential evapotranspiration values were very small; in January the observed value was 0.000 inches and in February the observed value was 0.009 inches. Simulated start of melting of the snowpack occurred at about the same time as observed start of melting. The simulated snowpack accumulated to 90-100 percent snow-covered area 1 to 3 months earlier than observed snowpack. This overestimated snowpack during the winter corresponded to underestimated streamflow during the same period. In addition to the primary-parameter file, four other parameter files were created: for a "recent" period (1991-2005), a historical period (1967-90), a "wet" period (1989-97), and a "dry" period (1998-2005). For each data file of projected precipitation and air temperature, a single parameter file can be used to simulate a s

Winter cyclone frequency and following freshet streamflow formation on the rivers in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partasenok, Irina S.; Groisman, Pavel Ya; Chekan, Grigoriy S.; Melnik, Viktor I.

2014-09-01

We studied long-term fluctuations of streamflow and occurrence of extreme phenomena on the rivers of Belarus during the post-World War II period. It was found that formation of annual runoff within the nation has no constant tendencies and varies from year to year. At the same time, analysis of intra-annual distribution of streamflow reveals significant changes since the 1970s, first of all, increase of winter and decrease of spring streamflow. As a result, the frequency of extreme floods has decreased. These changes in water regime are associated with climatic anomalies (increase of the surface air temperatures) caused by large-scale alterations in atmospheric circulation, specifically in trajectories of cyclones. During the last two decades, the frequency of Atlantic and southern cyclones has changed and caused decreasing of cold season storms and extreme phenomena on the rivers.

Water Resources Data for Oregon, Water Year 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrett, T.A.; Hess, G.W.; House, J.G.; Ruppert, G.P.; Courts, M.L.

2003-01-01

The annual Oregon hydrologic data report is one of a series of annual reports that document hydrologic data gathered from the U.S. Geological Survey's surface- and ground-water data-collection networks in each State, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territories. These records of streamflow, ground-water levels, and quality of water provide the hydrologic information needed by State, local and Federal agencies, and the private sector for developing and managing our Nation's land and water resources. This report includes records on both surface and ground water in the State and contains discharge records for 181 stream-gaging stations, 47 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, and 8 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; stage-only records for 6 gaging stations; stage and content records for 26 lakes and reservoirs; and water-quality records for 127 streamflow-gaging stations, 2 atmospheric deposition stations, and 11 ground-water sites.

Water Resources Data for Oregon, Water Year 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrett, T.A.; Hess, G.W.; House, J.G.; Ruppert, G.P.; Courts, M.L.

2004-01-01

The annual Oregon hydrologic data report is one of a series of annual reports that document hydrologic data gathered from the U.S. Geological Survey's surface- and ground-water data-collection networks in each State, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territories. These records of streamflow, ground-water levels, and quality of water provide the hydrologic information needed by State, local and Federal agencies, and the private sector for developing and managing our Nation's land and water resources. This report includes records on both surface and ground water in Oregon and contains discharge records for 199 stream-gaging stations, 25 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, and 8 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; stage-only records for 6 gaging stations; stage and content records for 26 lakes and reservoirs; and water-quality records collected at 127 streamflow-gaging stations, 2 atmospheric deposition stations, and 11 ground-water sites.

Increased dry season water yield in burned watersheds in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Alicia M.; Hogue, Terri S.

2015-01-01

The current work evaluates the effects of the 2003 Old Fire on semi-arid systems in the San Bernardino Mountains, California. Pre- and post-fire daily streamflow are used to analyze flow regimes in two burned watersheds. The average pre-fire runoff ratios in Devil Canyon and City Creek are 0.14 and 0.26, respectively, and both increase to 0.34 post-fire. Annual flow duration curves are developed for each watershed and the low flow is characterized by a 90% exceedance probability threshold. Post-fire low flow is statistically different from the pre-fire values (α = 0.05). In Devil Canyon the annual volume of pre-fire low flow increases on average from 2.6E + 02 to 3.1E + 03 m3 (1090% increase) and in City Creek the annual low flow volume increases from 2.3E + 03 to 5.0E + 03 m3 (118% increase). Predicting burn system resilience to disturbance (anthropogenic and natural) has significant implications for water sustainability and ultimately may provide an opportunity to utilize extended and increased water yield.

Development of regression equations to revise estimates of historical streamflows for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota (water years 1910-2011), and Prescott, Wisconsin (water years 1910-2007)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.; Magdalene, Suzanne

2015-01-01

The new regression equations were used to calculate revised estimates of historical streamflows for Stillwater and Prescott starting in 1910 and ending when index-velocity streamgages were installed. Monthly, annual, 30-year, and period of record statistics were examined between previous and revised estimates of historical streamflows. The abilities of the new regression equations to estimate historical streamflows were evaluated by using percent differences to compare new estimates of historical daily streamflows to discrete streamflow measurements made at Stillwater and Prescott before the installation of index-velocity streamgages. Although less variability was observed between estimated and measured streamflows at Stillwater compared to Prescott, the percent difference data indicated that the new estimates closely approximated measured streamflows at both locations.

Estimated monthly percentile discharges at ungaged sites in the Upper Yellowstone River Basin in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1986-01-01

Once-monthly streamflow measurements were used to estimate selected percentile discharges on flow-duration curves of monthly mean discharge for 40 ungaged stream sites in the upper Yellowstone River basin in Montana. The estimation technique was a modification of the concurrent-discharge method previously described and used by H.C. Riggs to estimate annual mean discharge. The modified technique is based on the relationship of various mean seasonal discharges to the required discharges on the flow-duration curves. The mean seasonal discharges are estimated from the monthly streamflow measurements, and the percentile discharges are calculated from regression equations. The regression equations, developed from streamflow record at nine gaging stations, indicated a significant log-linear relationship between mean seasonal discharge and various percentile discharges. The technique was tested at two discontinued streamflow-gaging stations; the differences between estimated monthly discharges and those determined from the discharge record ranged from -31 to +27 percent at one site and from -14 to +85 percent at the other. The estimates at one site were unbiased, and the estimates at the other site were consistently larger than the recorded values. Based on the test results, the probable average error of the technique was + or - 30 percent for the 21 sites measured during the first year of the program and + or - 50 percent for the 19 sites measured during the second year. (USGS)

Overview of ground-water recharge study sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, Jim; Adams, Kelsey S.; Stonestrom, David A.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Multiyear studies were done to examine meteorologic and hydrogeologic controls on ephemeral streamflow and focused ground-water recharge at eight sites across the arid and semiarid southwestern United States. Campaigns of intensive data collection were conducted in the Great Basin, Mojave Desert, Sonoran Desert, Rio Grande Rift, and Colorado Plateau physiographic areas. During the study period (1997 to 2002), the southwestern region went from wetter than normal conditions associated with a strong El Niño climatic pattern (1997–1998) to drier than normal conditions associated with a La Niña climatic pattern marked by unprecedented warmth in the western tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans (1998–2002). The strong El Niño conditions roughly doubled precipitation at the Great Basin, Mojave Desert, and Colorado Plateau study sites. Precipitation at all sites trended generally lower, producing moderate- to severe-drought conditions by the end of the study. Streamflow in regional rivers indicated diminishing ground-water recharge conditions, with annual-flow volumes declining to 10–46 percent of their respective long-term averages by 2002. Local streamflows showed higher variability, reflecting smaller scales of integration (in time and space) of the study-site watersheds. By the end of the study, extended periods (9–15 months) of zero or negligible flow were observed at half the sites. Summer monsoonal rains generated the majority of streamflow and associated recharge in the Sonoran Desert sites and the more southerly Rio Grande Rift site, whereas winter storms and spring snowmelt dominated the northern and westernmost sites. Proximity to moisture sources (primarily the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California) and meteorologic fluctuations, in concert with orography, largely control the generation of focused ground-water recharge from ephemeral streamflow, although other factors (geology, soil, and vegetation) also are important. Watershed area correlated weakly with focused infiltration volumes, the latter providing an upper bound on associated ground-water recharge. Estimates of annual focused infiltration for the research sites ranged from about 105 to 107 cubic meters from contributing areas that ranged from 26 to 2,260 square kilometers.

Streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for selected locations on the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers, Montana, 1928-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.

2013-01-01

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 on the Yellowstone River in Montana intensified public debate over the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council was formed to address conservation issues on the river. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to conduct a cumulative-effects study on the main stem of the Yellowstone River. The cumulative-effects study is intended to provide a basis for future management decisions in the watershed. Streamflow statistics, such as flow-frequency and flow-duration data calculated for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions, are a necessary component of the cumulative effects study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, calculated streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers for the 1928–2002 study period. Unregulated streamflow represents flow conditions that might have occurred during the 1928–2002 study period if there had been no water-resources development in the Yellowstone River Basin. Regulated streamflow represents estimates of flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if the level of water-resources development existing in 2002 was in place during the entire study period. Peak-flow frequency estimates for regulated and unregulated streamflow were developed using methods described in Bulletin 17B. High-flow frequency and low-flow frequency data were developed for regulated and unregulated streamflows from the annual series of highest and lowest (respectively) mean flows for specified n-day consecutive periods within the calendar year. Flow-duration data, and monthly and annual streamflow characteristics, also were calculated for the unregulated and regulated streamflows.

Climate, water use, and land surface transformation in an irrigation intensive watershed - streamflow responses from 1950 through 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dale, Joseph; Zou, Chris B.; Andrews, William J.; Long, James M.; Liang, Ye; Qiao, Lei

2015-01-01

Climatic variability and land surface change have a wide range of effects on streamflow and are often difficult to separate. We analyzed long-term records of climate, land use and land cover, and re-constructed the water budget based on precipitation, groundwater levels, and water use from 1950 through 2010 in the Cimarron–Skeleton watershed and a portion of the Cimarron–Eagle Chief watershed in Oklahoma, an irrigation-intensive agricultural watershed in the Southern Great Plains, USA. Our results show that intensive irrigation through alluvial aquifer withdrawal modifies climatic feedback and alters streamflow response to precipitation. Increase in consumptive water use was associated with decreases in annual streamflow, while returning croplands to non-irrigated grasslands was associated with increases in streamflow. Along with groundwater withdrawal, anthropogenic-induced factors and activities contributed nearly half to the observed variability of annual streamflow. Streamflow was more responsive to precipitation during the period of intensive irrigation between 1965 and 1984 than the period of relatively lower water use between 1985 and 2010. The Cimarron River is transitioning from a historically flashy river to one that is more stable with a lower frequency of both high and low flow pulses, a higher baseflow, and an increased median flow due in part to the return of cropland to grassland. These results demonstrated the interrelationship among climate, land use, groundwater withdrawal and streamflow regime and the potential to design agricultural production systems and adjust irrigation to mitigate impact of increasing climate variability on streamflow in irrigation intensive agricultural watershed.

Variance analysis of forecasted streamflow maxima in a wet temperate climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Aamery, Nabil; Fox, James F.; Snyder, Mark; Chandramouli, Chandra V.

2018-05-01

Coupling global climate models, hydrologic models and extreme value analysis provides a method to forecast streamflow maxima, however the elusive variance structure of the results hinders confidence in application. Directly correcting the bias of forecasts using the relative change between forecast and control simulations has been shown to marginalize hydrologic uncertainty, reduce model bias, and remove systematic variance when predicting mean monthly and mean annual streamflow, prompting our investigation for maxima streamflow. We assess the variance structure of streamflow maxima using realizations of emission scenario, global climate model type and project phase, downscaling methods, bias correction, extreme value methods, and hydrologic model inputs and parameterization. Results show that the relative change of streamflow maxima was not dependent on systematic variance from the annual maxima versus peak over threshold method applied, albeit we stress that researchers strictly adhere to rules from extreme value theory when applying the peak over threshold method. Regardless of which method is applied, extreme value model fitting does add variance to the projection, and the variance is an increasing function of the return period. Unlike the relative change of mean streamflow, results show that the variance of the maxima's relative change was dependent on all climate model factors tested as well as hydrologic model inputs and calibration. Ensemble projections forecast an increase of streamflow maxima for 2050 with pronounced forecast standard error, including an increase of +30(±21), +38(±34) and +51(±85)% for 2, 20 and 100 year streamflow events for the wet temperate region studied. The variance of maxima projections was dominated by climate model factors and extreme value analyses.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change On Groundwater Recharge and Streamflow In A Central European Low Mountain Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckhardt, K.; Ulbrich, U.

General Circulation Model simulations indicate a significant rise of temperature and changes in precipitation over Europe as part of the anthropogenic climate change. In this study, the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range catchment are investigated using a concep- tual ecohydrologic model. Two climate change scenarios are considered, one with low and one with high climate sensitivity. The changes in temperature and precipitation associated with these projections are taken from multi-model estimates and enter the hydrologic model assuming a sinusodial annual cycle of temperature and precipitation changes. The resulting changes in annual mean groundwater recharge and streamflow are rather small, as increased atmospheric CO2 levels reduce stomatal conductance thus counteracting the increase of potential evapotranspiration induced by rising tem- peratures. There are, however, more pronounced changes associated with the mean annual cycle of groundwater recharge and streamflow. Snowmelt at the beginning of spring is reduced. Instead, runoff and hence flood risk in winter increase. In summer, groundwater recharge and streamflow are reduced by up to 50%. This could have neg- ative consequences for water quality, groundwater withdrawals and energy production by water power. Plant growth will be stimulated by the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Due to the temperature rise, the growing season will begin earlier in the year. However, the risk of desiccation injuries increases as well.

Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.

2017-08-01

Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic monthly rainfalls were 86 and 90% of the mean naturalised streamflow. In calibration, 33% of the naturalised flow located within the streamflow ranges with historic rainfall simulations and using stochastic rainfalls increased this to 66%. In validation the respective percentages of naturalised flows located within the simulated streamflow ranges were 32 and 72% respectively. The analysis reveals that monthly areal rainfall uncertainty is significant and incorporating it into streamflow simulation would add validity to the results.

Low-Flow Characteristics and Regionalization of Low-Flow Characteristics for Selected Streams in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funkhouser, Jaysson E.; Eng, Ken; Moix, Matthew W.

2008-01-01

Water use in Arkansas has increased dramatically in recent years. Since 1990, the use of water for all purposes except power generation has increased 53 percent (4,004 cubic feet per second in 1990 to 6,113 cubic feet per second in 2005). The biggest users are agriculture (90 percent), municipal water supply (4 percent) and industrial supply (2 percent). As the population of the State continues to grow, so does the demand for the State's water resources. The low-flow characteristics of a stream ultimately affect its utilization by humans. Specific information on the low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to State water-management agencies such as the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality, the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, and the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission when dealing with problems related to irrigation, municipal and industrial water supplies, fish and wildlife conservation, and dilution of waste. Low-flow frequency data are of particular value to management agencies responsible for the development and management of the State's water resources. This report contains the low-flow characteristics for 70 active continuous-streamflow record gaging stations, 59 inactive continuous-streamflow record stations, and 101 partial-record gaging stations. These characteristics are the annual 7-day, 10-year low flow and the annual 7-day, 2-year low flow, and the seasonal, bimonthly, and monthly 7-day, 10-year low flow for the 129 active and inactive continuous-streamflow record and 101 partial-record gaging stations. Low-flow characteristics were computed on the basis of streamflow data for the period of record through September 2005 for the continuous-streamflow record and partial-record streamflow gaging stations. The low-flow characteristics of these continuous- and partial-record streamflow gaging stations were utilized in a regional regression analysis to produce equations for estimating the annual, seasonal, bimonthly, and monthly (November through April) 7-day, 10-year low flows and the annual 7-day, 2-year low flow for ungaged streams in the western two-thirds of Arkansas.

Hydrology of the middle San Pedro area, southeastern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cordova, Jeffrey T.; Dickinson, Jesse; Beisner, Kimberly R.; Hopkins, Candice B.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Pool, Donald R.; Glenn, Edward P.; Nagler, Pamela L.; Thomas, Blakemore E.

2015-05-05

In the middle San Pedro Watershed in southeastern Arizona, groundwater is the primary source of water supply for municipal, domestic, industrial, and agricultural use. The watershed comprises two smaller subareas, the Benson subarea and the Narrows-Redington subarea. Early 21st century projections for heavy population growth in the watershed have not yet become a reality, but increased groundwater withdrawals could have undesired consequences - such as decreased base flow to the San Pedro River, and groundwater-level declines - that would lead to the need to deepen existing wells. This report describes the hydrology, hydrochemistry, water quality, and development of a groundwater budget for the middle San Pedro Watershed, focusing primarily on the elements of groundwater movement that could be most useful for the development of a groundwater modelPrecipitation data from Tombstone, Arizona, and base flow at the stream-gaging station on the San Pedro River at Charleston both show relatively dry periods during the 1960s through the mid-1980s and in the mid-1990s to 2009, and wetter periods from the mid-1980s through the mid-1990s. Water levels in four out of five wells near the mountain fronts show cyclical patterns of recharge, with rates of recharge greatest in the early 1980s through the mid-1990s. Three wells near the San Pedro River recorded their lowest levels during the 1950s to the mid-1960s. The water-level record from one well, completed in the confined part of the coarse-grained lower basin fill, showed a decline of approximately 21 meters.Annual flow of the San Pedro River, measured at the Charleston and Redington gages, has decreased since the 1940s. The median annual streamflow and base flow at the gaging station on the river near Tombstone has decreased by 50 percent between the periods 1968–1986 and 1997–2009. Estimates of streamflow infiltration along the San Pedro River during 1914–2009 have decreased 44 percent, with the largest decreases in the months June–October in the Benson subarea. In the Narrows-Redington subarea, streamflow infiltration has decreased about 65 percent during 1914–2009.The average annual outflow (27.6 hm3/year [cubic hectometers per year]) from the Benson subarea aquifer for water years 2001 through 2009 exceeded the inflows (20.0 hm3/ yr) by 7.60 hm3/yr. In the Narrows-Redington subarea for the same period, the average annual outflow (15.7 hm3/yr) from the aquifer system exceeded the inflows (13.8 hm3/yr) by nearly 2 hm3/yr. The largest withdrawals of groundwater in both subareas are for irrigation; these withdrawals peaked in 1973 and have been steadily decreasing since then. Recharge from streamflow infiltration exceeded recharge from the mountain-front and from ephemeral channels in the Benson subarea. In the Narrows-Redington subarea, however, recharge from mountain-front and ephemeral channel recharge exceeded recharge from streamflow infiltration. Evapotranspiration by phreatophytes accounts for the largest outflow of groundwater for both subareas—78 percent of the outflow in the Narrows-Redington subarea and 62 percent of the outflow in the Benson subarea.Precipitation, surface-water, and groundwater chemistry and isotope data indicated the relative age and residence time of groundwater, the amount of interaction between geologic sources and groundwater, and how recharge elevation and season were related to the presence of modern water. The bedrock aquifer receives modern recharge (

Low flows and water temperature risks to Asian coal power plants in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Byers, E.; Parkinson, S.; Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Bielicki, J. M.

2017-12-01

Thermoelectric power generation requires cooling, normally provided by wet cooling systems. The withdrawal and discharge of cooling water are subject to regulation. Therefore, operation of power plants may be vulnerable to changes in streamflow and rises in water temperatures. In Asia, about 489 GW of coal-fired power plants are currently under construction, permitted, or announced. Using a comprehensive dataset of these planned coal power plants (PCPPs) and cooling water use models, we investigated whether electricity generation at these power plants will be limited by streamflow and water temperature. Daily streamflow and water temperature time series are from the high-resolution (0.08ox0.08o) runs of the PCRGLOBWB hydrological model, driven by downscaled meteorological forcing from five global climate models. We compared three climate change scenarios (1.5oC, 2oC, and 3oC warming in global mean temperature) and three cooling system choice scenarios (freshwater once-through, freshwater cooling tower, and "business-as-usual" - where a PCPP uses the same cooling system as the nearest existing coal power plant). The potential available capacity of the PCPPs increase slightly from the 1.5oC to the 2oC and 3oC warming scenario due to increase in streamflow. The once-through cooling scenario results in virtually zero available capacity at the PCPPs. The other two cooling scenarios result in about 20% of the planned capacity being unavailable under all warming scenarios. Hotspots of the most water-limited PCPPs are in Pakistan, northwestern India, northwestern and north-central China, and northern Vietnam, where most of the PCPPs will face 30% to 90% unavailable nameplate capacity on annual average. Since coal power plants cannot operate effectively when the capacity factor falls below a minimum load level (about 20% to 50%), the actual limitation on generation capacity would be larger. In general, the PCPPs that will have the highest limitation on annual average capacity will also have the most frequent and longest periods of interrupted operation. These results suggest that to ensure security of energy supply and avoid over-withdrawing water resources, the water-limited PCPPs should implement adaptation measures such as dry-cooling, combined heat- and power, or using recycled wastewater.

Climate Change Impacts to Hydro Power Reservoir Systems in British Columbia, Canada: Modelling, Validation and Projection of Historic and Future Streamflow and Snowpack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Schnorbus, M.; Werner, A. T.; Berland, A. J.

2010-12-01

The British Columbia Hydro Electric Corporation (BC Hydro) has a mandate to provide clean, renewable and reliable sources of hydro-electric power into the future, hence managing those resources in the context of climate change will be an important component of reservoir operational planning in British Columbia. The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (www.PacificClimate.org) has implemented the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model parameterized at 1/16th degree (~32 km2) to provide BC Hydro with future projections of changes to streamflow and snowpack to the 2050s. The headwaters of the Peace, Columbia, and Campbell River basins were selected for study; the Upper Peace River basin (101,000 km2) is a snowmelt-dominated watershed, and the Upper Columbia River Basin (104,000 km2) has a mixed snowmelt-glacier melt runoff regime, with glacier runoff contributing up to 15 to 20% of late summer discharge. The Upper Campbell River watershed (1,200 km2) has a mixed rainfall and snowmelt (hybrid) hydrologic regime. The model has been calibrated using historical streamflow observations and validated against these observations, as well as automated snow pillow measurements. Future streamflow changes are estimated based on eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP3 suite, downscaled using the Bias Correction Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, run under three emissions scenarios (A2, A1B and B1; A1B is specifically reported on herein). Climate impacts by the 2050s in the three watersheds illustrate an increase in annual average temperature and precipitation ranging between +2.2°C to +2.8°C and +2% to +10% depending on basin, and an annual change in streamflow of -1% to +12% for the three watersheds. Changes are more profound on the seasonal time-scale and differ across basins. Summer streamflow in the Upper Campbell River watershed is projected to decline by -60%, where as the Upper Peace and Columbia systems are projected to decline by -25% and -22%, respectively. Streamflow is projected to increase during winter months for all basins, ranging from increases of +54% (Upper Campbell), +77% (Upper Peace) to +94% (Upper Columbia). These changes in streamflow illustrate a shift towards more rainfall dominated systems with lower snowpacks during the winter months, particularly in the Campbell system (shifting from 23% to 13% snow dominated by the 2050s), which is located at a relatively low elevation and proximal to the Pacific Ocean. Shifts in the distribution of water resources, and in particular snowpack reserves, may require BC Hydro to reconsider their operational planning framework for impacted systems.

Sediment Transport in the Lower Yampa River, Northwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, John G.; Kircher, James E.; Von Guerard, Paul

1984-01-01

Discharge measurements and sediment samples were taken at streamflow-gaging station 09260050 Yampa River at Deerlodge Park in 1982 and 1983 to determine the annual sediment supply to the Yampa Canyon in Dinosaur National Monument. Forty-three years of discharge records at two tributary sites were combined to determine the historic discharge of the Yampa River at Deerlodge Park. A mean annual hydrograph and flow-duration curve were derived from these data. Sediment-transport equations were derived for total sediment discharge, suspended-sediment discharge, bedload dischagre, and the discharge of sediment in several particle-sizes. Annual sediment discharge were determined by the flow-duration, sediment-rating-curve method and indicated annual total sediment discharge was approximately 2.0 million tons per year of which 0.8 million tons per year was sand-sized material. Bedload was almost entirely sand, and annual bedload discharge was 0.1 million tons per year. Development of water resources in the Yampa River basin could effect the geomorphic character of the Yampa River at Deerlodge Park and the Yampa Canyon. Several scenarios of altered streamflow frequency distribution, reduced streamflow volume, and reduced sediment supply are examined to estimate the effect on the sediment budget at Deerlodge Park. (USGS)

Estimating distribution parameters of annual maximum streamflows in Johor, Malaysia using TL-moments approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mat Jan, Nur Amalina; Shabri, Ani

2017-01-01

TL-moments approach has been used in an analysis to identify the best-fitting distributions to represent the annual series of maximum streamflow data over seven stations in Johor, Malaysia. The TL-moments with different trimming values are used to estimate the parameter of the selected distributions namely: Three-parameter lognormal (LN3) and Pearson Type III (P3) distribution. The main objective of this study is to derive the TL-moments ( t 1,0), t 1 = 1,2,3,4 methods for LN3 and P3 distributions. The performance of TL-moments ( t 1,0), t 1 = 1,2,3,4 was compared with L-moments through Monte Carlo simulation and streamflow data over a station in Johor, Malaysia. The absolute error is used to test the influence of TL-moments methods on estimated probability distribution functions. From the cases in this study, the results show that TL-moments with four trimmed smallest values from the conceptual sample (TL-moments [4, 0]) of LN3 distribution was the most appropriate in most of the stations of the annual maximum streamflow series in Johor, Malaysia.

Assessing streamflow sensitivity to variations in glacier mass balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neel, Shad; Hood, Eran; Arendt, Anthony; Sass, Louis

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate relationships among seasonal and annual glacier mass balances, glacier runoff and streamflow in two glacierized basins in different climate settings. We use long-term glacier mass balance and streamflow datasets from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Benchmark Glacier Program to compare and contrast glacier-streamflow interactions in a maritime climate (Wolverine Glacier) with those in a continental climate (Gulkana Glacier). Our overall goal is to improve our understanding of how glacier mass balance processes impact streamflow, ultimately improving our conceptual understanding of the future evolution of glacier runoff in continental and maritime climates.

Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levin, Sara B.

2016-10-06

State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats.A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The reservoir simulation tool was used to simulate 35 single- and multiple-reservoir systems in Massachusetts over a 44-year period (water years 1961 to 2004) under two water-use scenarios. The no-pumping scenario assumes no water withdrawal pumping, and the pumping scenario incorporates average annual pumping rates from 2000 to 2004. By comparing the results of the two scenarios, the total streamflow alteration can be parsed into the portion of streamflow alteration caused by the presence of a reservoir and the additional streamflow alteration caused by the level of water use of the system.For each reservoir system, the following metrics were computed to characterize the frequency, duration, and magnitude of reservoir outflow volumes compared with unaltered streamflow conditions: (1) the median number of days per year in which the reservoir did not spill, (2) the median duration of the longest consecutive period of no-spill days per year, and (3) the lowest annual flow duration exceedance probability at which the outflows are significantly different from estimated unaltered streamflow at the 95-percent confidence level. Most reservoirs in the study do not spill during the summer months even under no-pumping conditions. The median number of days during which there was no spillage was less than 365 for all reservoirs in the study, indicating that, even under reported pumping conditions, the reservoirs refill to full volume and spill at least once during nondrought years, typically in the spring.Thirteen multiple-reservoir systems consisting of two or three hydrologically connected reservoirs were included in the study. Because operating rules used to manage multiple-reservoir systems are not available, these systems were simulated under two pumping scenarios, one in which water transfers between reservoirs are minimal and one in which reservoirs continually transferred water to intermediate or terminal reservoirs. These two scenarios provided upper and lower estimates of spillage under average pumping conditions from 2000 to 2004.For sites with insufficient data to simulate daily water balances, a proxy method to estimate the three spillage metrics was developed. A series of 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the reservoir water balance were run. In each simulation, streamflow, physical reservoir characteristics, and daily climate inputs were randomly varied. Tobit regression equations that quantify the relation between streamflow alteration and physical and operational characteristics of reservoirs were developed from the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and can be used to estimate each of the three spillage metrics using only the withdrawal ratio and the ratio of the surface area to the drainage area, which are available statewide for all reservoirs.A graphical user-interface for the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool was developed in a Microsoft Access environment. The simulation tool contains information for 70 reservoirs in Massachusetts and allows for simulation of additional scenarios than the ones considered in this report, including controlled releases, dam seepage and leakage, demand management plans, and alternative water withdrawal and transfer rules.

Environmental Flow Assessments in the McKenzie and Santiam River Basins, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risley, J. C.; Bach, L.; Budai, C.; Duffy, K.

2012-12-01

The McKenzie and Santiam Rivers are tributaries of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon, draining areas of 3,370 and 4,690 square kilometers, respectively. The river basins are heavily forested and contain streams that historically provided critical habit for salmonid rearing, salmonid spawning, and bull trout. In the 1950s and 1960s, hydropower and flood control dams were constructed in both basins. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps), began assessing the impacts of dam regulation in the two basins on streamflow, geomorphic, and ecological processes (Risley et. al., 2010; 2012). The baseline assessments were made under the auspices of the Sustainable Rivers Project (SRP), formed in 2002 by TNC and the Corps. SRP is a nation-wide partnership aimed at developing, implementing, and refining environmental flows downstream of dams. Environmental flows can be defined as the streamflow needed to sustain ecosystems while continuing to meet human needs. Determining environmental flows is an iterative collective process involving stakeholders, workshops, bio-monitoring, and follow-up assessments. The dams on the McKenzie and Santiam Rivers have decreased the frequency and magnitude of floods and increased the magnitude of low flows. In the Santiam River study reaches, for example, annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased by 46-percent on average because of regulated streamflow conditions. Annual 7-day minimum flows in six of the seven study reaches increased by 146 percent on average. On a seasonal basis, median monthly streamflows in both river basins decreased from February to May and increased from September to January. However, the magnitude of these impacts usually decreased farther downstream from the dams because of the cumulative inflow from unregulated tributaries and groundwater discharge below the dams. In addition to streamflow assessments, the USGS studies included a geomorphic and ecological characterization of both rivers using reach characterization, historical channel mapping, aerial photography, and specific gage analysis methods. Decreased flooding and decreased sediment supply resulting from the dams likely contributed to a decrease in gravel bars, which are critical to salmonid spawning. Secondary channel features and sinuosity also decreased. However, other anthropogenic factors, such as bank stabilization revetments, land filling, and channel dredging, have also impacted channel morphology in both basins. Exemplar native terrestrial and aquatic species of interest and used in developing environmental flows for both river basins include black cottonwood, red alder, bull trout, spring Chinook, Oregon chub, red-legged frogs, and western pond turtles. Suggestions for future bio-monitoring and investigations were also provided in the study reports. References: Risley, John, Wallick, J.R., Waite, Ian, and Stonewall, Adam, 2010, Development of an environmental flow framework for the McKenzie River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5016, 94 p. Risley, J.C., Wallick, J.R., Mangano, J.F., and Jones, K.F., 2012, An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012-1133, 66 p.

Quality of surface-water supplies in the Triangle Area of North Carolina, water years 2012–13

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pfeifle, C.A.; Cain, J.L.; Rasmussen, R.B.

2016-09-07

Surface-water supplies are important sources of drinking water for residents in the Triangle area of North Carolina, which is located within the upper Cape Fear and Neuse River Basins. Since 1988, the U.S. Geological Survey and a consortium of local governments have tracked water-quality conditions and trends in several of the area’s water-supply lakes and streams. This report summarizes data collected through this cooperative effort, known as the Triangle Area Water Supply Monitoring Project, during October 2011 through September 2012 (water year 2012) and October 2012 through September 2013 (water year 2013). Major findings for this period include:Annual precipitation was approximately 2 percent above the long-term mean (average) annual precipitation in 2012 and approximately 3 percent below the long-term mean in 2013.In water year 2012, streamflow was generally below the long-term mean during most of the period for the 10 project streamflow gaging stations. Streamflow was near or above the long-term mean at the same streamflow gaging stations during the 2013 water year.More than 7,000 individual measurements of water quality were made at a total of 17 sites—6 in the Neuse River Basin and 11 in the Cape Fear River Basin. Forty-three water-quality properties or constituents were measured; State water-quality standards exist for 23 of these.All observations met State water-quality standards for pH, temperature, hardness, chloride, fluoride, sulfate, nitrate, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, nickel, and selenium.North Carolina water-quality standards were exceeded one or more times for dissolved oxygen, dissolved-oxygen percent saturation, turbidity, chlorophyll a, copper, iron, manganese, mercury, silver, and zinc. Exceedances occurred at all 17 sites.Stream samples collected during storm events contained elevated concentrations of 19 water-quality constituents relative to non-storm events.

Streambed infiltration and ground-water flow from the trout creek drainage, an intermittent tributary to the Humboldt River, north-central Nevada: Chapter K in Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Professional Paper 1703)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prudic, David E.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Harrill, James R.; Wood, James L.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Ground water is abundant in many alluvial basins of the Basin and Range Physiographic Province of the western United States. Water enters these basins by infiltration along intermittent and ephemeral channels, which originate in the mountainous regions before crossing alluvial fans and piedmont alluvial plains. Water also enters the basins as subsurface ground-water flow directly from the mountains, where infiltrated precipitation recharges water-bearing rocks and sediments at these higher elevations. Trout Creek, a typical intermittent stream in the Middle Humboldt River Basin in north-central Nevada, was chosen to develop methods of estimating and characterizing streambed infiltration and ground-water recharge in mountainous terrains. Trout Creek has a drainage area of about 4.8 × 107 square meters. Stream gradients range from more than 1 × 10–1 meter per meter in the mountains to 5 × 10–3 meter per meter at the foot of the piedmont alluvial plain. Trout Creek is perennial in short reaches upstream of a northeast-southwest trending normal fault, where perennial springs discharge to the channel. Downstream from the fault, the water table drops below the base of the channel and the stream becomes intermittent.Snowmelt generates streamflow during March and April, when streamflow extends onto the piedmont alluvial plain for several weeks in most years. Rates of streambed infiltration become highest in the lowest reaches, at the foot of the piedmont alluvial plain. The marked increases in infiltration are attributed to increases in streambed permeability together with decreases in channel-bed armoring, the latter which increases the effective area of the channel. Large quartzite cobbles cover the streambed in the upper reaches of the stream and are absent in the lowest reach. Such changes in channel deposits are common where alluvial fans join piedmont alluvial plains. Poorly sorted coarse and fine sediments are deposited near the head of the fan, while finer-grained but better sorted gravels and sands are deposited near the foot.All flow in Trout Creek is lost to infiltration in the upper and middle reaches of the channel during years of normal to below-normal precipitation. During years of above-normal precipitation, streamflow extends beyond the piedmont alluvial plain to the lower reaches of the channel, where high rates of infiltration result in rapid stream loss. The frequency and duration of streambed infiltration is sufficient to maintain high water contents and low chloride concentrations, compared with interchannel areas, to depths of at least 6 m beneath the channel. Streamflow, streambed infiltration, and unsaturated-zone thickness are all highly variable along intermittent streams, resulting in recharge that is highly variable as well.Average annual ground-water recharge in the mountainous part of the Trout Creek drainage upstream of Marigold Mine was estimated on the basis of chloride balance to be 5.2 × 105 cubic meters. Combined with an average annual surface runoff exiting the mountains of 3.4 × 105cubic meters, the total annual volume of inflow to alluvial-basin sediments from the mountainous part of the Trout Creek is 8.6 × 105 cubic meters, assuming that all runoff infiltrates the stream channel. This equates to about 7 percent of average annual precipitation, which is about the same percentage estimated for ground-water recharge using the original Maxey-Eakin method.

Role of surface-water and groundwater interactions on projected summertime streamflow in snow dominated regions : An integrated modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Justin L.; Niswonger, Richard G.

2012-01-01

Previous studies indicate predominantly increasing trends in precipitation across the Western United States, while at the same time, historical streamflow records indicate decreasing summertime streamflow and 25th percentile annual flows. These opposing trends could be viewed as paradoxical, given that several studies suggest that increased annual precipitation will equate to increased annual groundwater recharge, and therefore increased summertime flow. To gain insight on mechanisms behind these potential changes, we rely on a calibrated, integrated surface and groundwater model to simulate climate impacts on surface water/groundwater interactions using 12 general circulation model projections of temperature and precipitation from 2010 to 2100, and evaluate the interplay between snowmelt timing and other hydrologic variables, including streamflow, groundwater recharge, storage, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration. Hydrologic simulations show that the timing of peak groundwater discharge to the stream is inversely correlated to snowmelt runoff and groundwater recharge due to the bank storage effect and reversal of hydraulic gradients between the stream and underlying groundwater. That is, groundwater flow to streams peaks following the decrease in stream depth caused by snowmelt recession, and the shift in snowmelt causes a corresponding shift in groundwater discharge to streams. Our results show that groundwater discharge to streams is depleted during the summer due to earlier drainage of shallow aquifers adjacent to streams even if projected annual precipitation and groundwater recharge increases. These projected changes in surface water/groundwater interactions result in more than a 30% decrease in the projected ensemble summertime streamflow. Our findings clarify causality of observed decreasing summertime flow, highlight important aspects of potential climate change impacts on groundwater resources, and underscore the need for integrated hydrologic models in climate change studies.

Characteristics and trends of streamflow and dissolved solids in the upper Colorado River Basin, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liebermann, Timothy D.; Mueller, David K.; Kircher, James E.; Choquette, Anne F.

1989-01-01

Annual and monthly concentrations and loads of dissolved solids and major constituents were estimated for 70 streamflow-gaging stations in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Trends in streamflow, dissolved-solids concentrations, and dissolved-solids loads were identified. Nonparametric trend-analysis techniques were used to determine step trends resulting from human activities upstream and long-term monotonic trends. Results were compared with physical characteristics of the basin and historical water-resource development in the basin to determine source areas of dissolved solids and possible cause of trends. Mean annual dissolved-solids concentration increases from less than 100 milligrams per liter in the headwater streams to more than 500 milligrams per liter in the outflow from the Upper Colorado River Basin. All the major tributaries that have high concentrations of dissolved solids are downstream from extensive areas of irrigated agriculture. However, irrigation predated the period of record for most sites and was not a factor in many identified trends. Significant annual trends were identified for 30 sites. Most of these trends were related to transbasin exports, changes in land use, salinity-control practices, or reservoir development. The primary factor affecting streamflow and dissolved-solids concentration and load has been the construction of large reservoirs. Reservoirs have decreased the seasonal and annual variability of streamflow and dissolved solids in streams that drain the Gunnison and San Juan River basins. Fontenelle and Flaming Gorge Reservoirs have increased the dissolved-solids load in the Green River because of dissolution of mineral salts from the bank material. The largest trends occurred downstream from Lake Powell. However, the period of record since the completion of filling was too short to estimate the long-term effects of that reservoir.

Estimation of sediment inflows to Lake Tuscaloosa, Alabama, 2009-11

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, K.G.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Tuscaloosa, evaluated the concentrations, loads, and yields of suspended sediment in the tributaries to Lake Tuscaloosa in west-central Alabama, from October 1, 2008, to January 31, 2012. The collection and analysis of these data will facilitate the comparison with historical data, serve as a baseline for future sediment-collection efforts, and help to identify areas of concern. Lake Tuscaloosa, at the reservoir dam, receives runoff from a drainage area of 423 square miles (mi2). Basinwide in 2006, forested land was the primary land cover (68 percent). Comparison of historical imagery with the National Land Cover Database (2001 and 2006) indicated that the greatest temporal land-use change was timber harvest. The land cover in 2006 was indicative of this change, with shrub/scrub land (12 percent) being the secondary land use in the basin. Agricultural land use (10 percent) was represented predominantly by hay and pasture or grasslands. Urban land use was minimal, accounting for 4 percent of the entire basin. The remaining 6 percent of the basin has a land use of open water or wetlands. Storm and monthly suspended-sediment samples were collected from seven tributaries to Lake Tuscaloosa: North River, Turkey Creek, Binion Creek, Pole Bridge Creek, Tierce Creek, Carroll Creek, and Brush Creek. Suspended-sediment concentrations and streamflow measurements were statistically analyzed to estimate annual suspended-sediment loads and yields from each of these contributing watersheds. Estimated annual suspended-sediment yields in 2009 were 360, 540, and 840 tons per square mile (tons/mi2) at the North River, Turkey Creek, and Carroll Creek streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. Estimated annual suspended-sediment yields in 2010 were 120 and 86 tons/mi2 at the Binion Creek and Pole Bridge Creek streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. Estimated annual suspended-sediment yields in 2011 were 190 and 300 tons/mi2 at the Tierce Creek and Brush Creek streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. The North River watershed at the streamflow-gaging station contributes 53 percent of the drainage area for Lake Tuscaloosa. A previous study in the 1970s analyzed streamflow and historical suspended-sediment samples to estimate a long-term average suspended-sediment yield of 300 tons per year per square mile in the North River watershed. Analysis of data collected in the North River watershed during the 2009 water year (October 2008 to September 2009) estimated a sediment yield of 360 tons/mi2. The North River watershed, a major portion of the Lake Tuscaloosa drainage basin, has not experienced a substantial increase in sedimentation rates. During the 2009 water year, the Turkey Creek watershed (6.16 mi2) and the Carroll Creek watershed (20.9 mi2) produced greater suspended-sediment yields than the North River watershed but contribute a much smaller drainage area to Lake Tuscaloosa. Aerial photography and bathymetric surveys indicate that Carroll Creek has experienced increased sediment deposition in the upstream portions of the channel. Carroll Creek is also the only watershed in the current study that has a substantial percentage (11 percent) of urban

A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Hernández-Henríquez, Marco A.; Owens, Philip N.; Parkes, Margot W.; Petticrew, Ellen L.

2012-06-01

This study examines the 1911-2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world’s greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC’s interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year’s sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in hydrological extremes, may influence ecological processes and human usage throughout the FRB in the 21st century.

Hydrologic Drought in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timilsena, J.; Piechota, T.; Hidalgo, H.; Tootle, G.

2004-12-01

This paper focuses on drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) for the last five hundred years and evaluates the magnitude, severity and frequency of the current five-year drought. Hydrologic drought characteristics have been developed using the historical streamflow data and tree ring chronologies in the UCRB. Historical data include the Colorado River at Cisco and Lees Ferry, Green River, Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI), and the Z index. Three ring chronologies were used from 17 spatially representative sites in the UCRB from NOAA's International Tree Ring Data. A PCA based regression model procedures was used to reconstruct drought indices and streamflow in the UCRB. Hydrologic drought is characterized by its duration (duration in year in which cumulative deficit is continuously below thresholds), deficit magnitude (the cumulative deficit below the thresholds for consecutive years), severity (magnitude divided by the duration) and frequency. Results indicate that the current drought ranks anywhere from the 5th to 20th worst drought during the period 1493-2004, depending on the drought indicator and magnitude. From a short term perspective (using annual data), the current drought is more severe than if longer term average (i.e., 5 or 10 year averages) are used to define the drought.

Trend analysis and selected summary statistics of annual mean streamflow for 38 selected long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Texas, water years 1916-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Barbie, Dana L.

2014-01-01

Selected summary statistics (L-moments) and estimates of respective sampling variances were computed for the 35 streamgages lacking statistically significant trends. From the L-moments and estimated sampling variances, weighted means or regional values were computed for each L-moment. An example application is included demonstrating how the L-moments could be used to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of annual mean streamflow.

Updated techniques for estimating monthly streamflow-duration characteristics at ungaged and partial-record sites in central Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Glen W.

2002-01-01

Techniques for estimating monthly streamflow-duration characteristics at ungaged and partial-record sites in central Nevada have been updated. These techniques were developed using streamflow records at six continuous-record sites, basin physical and climatic characteristics, and concurrent streamflow measurements at four partial-record sites. Two methods, the basin-characteristic method and the concurrent-measurement method, were developed to provide estimating techniques for selected streamflow characteristics at ungaged and partial-record sites in central Nevada. In the first method, logarithmic-regression analyses were used to relate monthly mean streamflows (from all months and by month) from continuous-record gaging sites of various percent exceedence levels or monthly mean streamflows (by month) to selected basin physical and climatic variables at ungaged sites. Analyses indicate that the total drainage area and percent of drainage area at altitudes greater than 10,000 feet are the most significant variables. For the equations developed from all months of monthly mean streamflow, the coefficient of determination averaged 0.84 and the standard error of estimate of the relations for the ungaged sites averaged 72 percent. For the equations derived from monthly means by month, the coefficient of determination averaged 0.72 and the standard error of estimate of the relations averaged 78 percent. If standard errors are compared, the relations developed in this study appear generally to be less accurate than those developed in a previous study. However, the new relations are based on additional data and the slight increase in error may be due to the wider range of streamflow for a longer period of record, 1995-2000. In the second method, streamflow measurements at partial-record sites were correlated with concurrent streamflows at nearby gaged sites by the use of linear-regression techniques. Statistical measures of results using the second method typically indicated greater accuracy than for the first method. However, to make estimates for individual months, the concurrent-measurement method requires several years additional streamflow data at more partial-record sites. Thus, exceedence values for individual months are not yet available due to the low number of concurrent-streamflow-measurement data available. Reliability, limitations, and applications of both estimating methods are described herein.

Estimation of constituent concentrations, densities, loads, and yields in lower Kansas River, northeast Kansas, using regression models and continuous water-quality monitoring, January 2000 through December 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rasmussen, Teresa J.; Ziegler, Andrew C.; Rasmussen, Patrick P.

2005-01-01

The lower Kansas River is an important source of drinking water for hundreds of thousands of people in northeast Kansas. Constituents of concern identified by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) for streams in the lower Kansas River Basin include sulfate, chloride, nutrients, atrazine, bacteria, and sediment. Real-time continuous water-quality monitors were operated at three locations along the lower Kansas River from July 1999 through September 2004 to provide in-stream measurements of specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen and to estimate concentrations for constituents of concern. Estimates of concentration and densities were combined with streamflow to calculate constituent loads and yields from January 2000 through December 2003. The Wamego monitoring site is located 44 river miles upstream from the Topeka monitoring site, which is 65 river miles upstream from the DeSoto monitoring site, which is 18 river miles upstream from where the Kansas River flows into the Missouri River. Land use in the Kansas River Basin is dominated by grassland and cropland, and streamflow is affected substantially by reservoirs. Water quality at the three monitoring sites varied with hydrologic conditions, season, and proximity to constituent sources. Nutrient and sediment concentrations and bacteria densities were substantially larger during periods of increased streamflow, indicating important contributions from nonpoint sources in the drainage basin. During the study period, pH remained well above the KDHE lower criterion of 6.5 standard units at all sites in all years, but exceeded the upper criterion of 8.5 standard units annually between 2 percent of the time (Wamego in 2001) and 65 percent of the time (DeSoto in 2003). The dissolved oxygen concentration was less than the minimum aquatic-life-support criterion of 5.0 milligrams per liter less than 1 percent of the time at all sites. Dissolved solids, a measure of the dissolved material in water, exceeded 500 milligrams per liter about one-half of the time at the three Kansas River sites. Larger dissolved-solids concentrations upstream likely were a result of water inflow from the highly mineralized Smoky Hill River that is diluted by tributary flow as it moves downstream. Concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus at the three monitoring sites exceeded the ecoregion water-quality criteria suggested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency during the entire study period. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were similar at all three sites, and nutrient load increased moving from the upstream to downstream sites. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields were nearly the same from site to site indicating that nutrient sources were evenly distributed throughout the lower Kansas River Basin. About 11 percent of the total nitrogen load and 12 percent of the total phosphorus load at DeSoto during 2000-03 originated from wastewater-treatment facilities. Escherichia coli bacteria densities were largest at the middle site, Topeka. On average, 83 percent of the annual bacteria load at DeSoto during 2000-03 occurred during 10 percent of the time, primarily in conjunction with runoff. The average annual sediment loads at the middle and downstream monitoring sites (Topeka and DeSoto) were nearly double those at the upstream site (Wamego). The average annual sediment yield was largest at Topeka. On average, 64 percent of the annual suspended-sediment load at DeSoto during 2000-03 occurred during 10 percent of the time. Trapping of sediment by reservoirs located on contributing tributaries decreases transport of sediment and sediment-related constituents. The average annual suspended-sediment load in the Kansas River at DeSoto during 2000-03 was estimated at 1.66 million tons. An estimated 13 percent of this load consisted of sand-size particles, so approximately 216,000 tons of sand were transported

Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

2016-04-01

A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

Hydrogeology of, and simulation of ground-water flow in a mantled carbonate-rock system, Cumberland Valley, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chichester, D.C.

1996-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in a highly productive and complex regolith-mantled carbonate valley in the northeastern part of the Cumberland Valley, Pa., as part of its Appalachian Valleys and Piedmont Regional Aquifer-system Analysis program. The study was designed to quantify the hydrogeologic characteristics and understand the ground-water flow system of a highly productive and complex thickly mantled carbonate valley. The Cumberland Valley is characterized by complexly folded and faulted carbonate bedrock in the valley bottom, by shale and graywacke to the north, and by red-sedimentary and diabase rocks in the east-southeast. Near the southern valley hillslope, the carbonate rock is overlain by wedge-shaped deposit of regolith, up to 450 feet thick, that is composed of residual material, alluvium, and colluvium. Locally, saturated regolith is greater than 200 feet thick. Seepage-run data indicate that stream reaches, near valley walls, are losing water from the stream, through the regolith, to the ground-water system. Results of hydrograph-separation analyses indicate that base flow in stream basins dominated by regolith-mantled carbonate rock, carbonate rock, and carbonate rock and shale are 81.6, 93.0, and 67.7 percent of total streamflow, respectively. The relative high percentage for the regolith-mantled carbonate-rock basin indicates that the regolith stores precipitation and slowly, steadily releases this water to the carbonate-rock aquifer and to streams as base flow. Anomalies in water-table gradients and configuration are a result of topography and differences in the character and distribution of overburden material, permeability, rock type, and geologic structure. Most ground-water flow is local, and ground water discharges to nearby springs and streams. Regional flow is northeastward to the Susquehanna River. Average-annual water budgets were calculated for the period of record from two continuous streamflow-gaging stations. Average-annual precipitation range from 39.0 to 40.5 inches, and averages about 40 inches for the model area. Average-annual recharge, which was assumed equal to the average-annual base flow, ranged from 12 inches for the Conodoguinet Creek, and 15 inches for the Yellow Breeches Creek. The thickly-mantled carbonate system was modeled as a three- dimensional water-table aquifer. Recharge to, ground-water flow through, and discharge from the Cumberland Valley were simulated. The model was calibrated for steady-state conditions using average recharge and discharge data. Aquifer horizontal hydraulic conductivity was calculated from specific-capacity data for each geologic unit in the area. Particle-tracking analyses indicate that interbasin and intrabasin flows of groundwater occur within the Yellow Breeches Creek Basin and between the Yellow Breeches and Conodoguinet Creek Basins.

Hydrograph separation techniques in snowmelt-dominated watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S.; Miller, S. N.

2017-12-01

This study integrates hydrological, geochemical, and isotopic data for a better understanding of different streamflow generation pathways and residence times in a snowmelt-dominated region. A nested watershed design with ten stream gauging sites recording sub-hourly stream stage has been deployed in a snowmelt-dominated region in southeastern Wyoming, heavily impacted by the recent bark beetle epidemic. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models help elucidate effects from topography and watershed metrics. At each stream gauging site, sub-hourly stream water conductivity and temperature data are also recorded. Hydrograph separation is a useful technique for determining different sources of runoff and how volumes from each source vary over time. Following previous methods, diurnal cycles from sub-hourly recorded streamflow and specific conductance data are analyzed and used to separate hydrographs into overland flow and baseflow components, respectively. A final component, vadose-zone flow, is assumed to be the remaining water from the total hydrograph. With access to snowmelt and precipitation data from nearby instruments, runoff coefficients are calculated for the different mechanisms, providing information on watershed response. Catchments are compared to understand how different watershed characteristics translate snowmelt or precipitation events into runoff. Portable autosamplers were deployed at two of the gauging sites for high-frequency analysis of stream water isotopic composition during peak flow to compare methods of hydrograph separation. Sampling rates of one or two hours can detect the diurnal streamflow cycle common during peak snowmelt. Prior research suggests the bark beetle epidemic has had little effect on annual streamflow patterns; however, several results show an earlier shift in the day of year in which peak annual streamflow is observed. The diurnal cycle is likely to comprise a larger percentage of daily streamflow during snowmelt in post-epidemic forests, as more solar radiation is available to penetrate to the ground surface and induce snowmelt, contributing to the effect of an earlier observed peak annual streamflow.

The Application of Censored Regression Models in Low Streamflow Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, C.; Luz, J.

2003-12-01

Estimation of low streamflow statistics at gauged and ungauged river sites is often a daunting task. This process is further confounded by the presence of intermittent streamflows, where streamflow is sometimes reported as zero, within a region. Streamflows recorded as zero may be zero, or may be less than the measurement detection limit. Such data is often referred to as censored data. Numerous methods have been developed to characterize intermittent streamflow series. Logit regression has been proposed to develop regional models of the probability annual lowflows series (such as 7-day lowflows) are zero. In addition, Tobit regression, a method of regression that allows for censored dependent variables, has been proposed for lowflow regional regression models in regions where the lowflow statistic of interest estimated as zero at some sites in the region. While these methods have been proposed, their use in practice has been limited. Here a delete-one jackknife simulation is presented to examine the performance of Logit and Tobit models of 7-day annual minimum flows in 6 USGS water resource regions in the United States. For the Logit model, an assessment is made of whether sites are correctly classified as having at least 10% of 7-day annual lowflows equal to zero. In such a situation, the 7-day, 10-year lowflow (Q710), a commonly employed low streamflow statistic, would be reported as zero. For the Tobit model, a comparison is made between results from the Tobit model, and from performing either ordinary least squares (OLS) or principal component regression (PCR) after the zero sites are dropped from the analysis. Initial results for the Logit model indicate this method to have a high probability of correctly classifying sites into groups with Q710s as zero and non-zero. Initial results also indicate the Tobit model produces better results than PCR and OLS when more than 5% of the sites in the region have Q710 values calculated as zero.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Leon Creek watershed, Bexar County, Texas, 1997-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ockerman, Darwin J.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the San Antonio River Authority, configured, calibrated, and tested a Hydrological Simulation Program ? FORTRAN watershed model for the approximately 238-square-mile Leon Creek watershed in Bexar County, Texas, and used the model to simulate streamflow and water quality (focusing on loads and yields of selected constituents). Streamflow in the model was calibrated and tested with available data from five U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations for 1997-2004. Simulated streamflow volumes closely matched measured streamflow volumes at all streamflow-gaging stations. Total simulated streamflow volumes were within 10 percent of measured values. Streamflow volumes are greatly influenced by large storms. Two months that included major floods accounted for about 50 percent of all the streamflow measured at the most downstream gaging station during 1997-2004. Water-quality properties and constituents (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, dissolved nitrate nitrogen, and dissolved and total lead and zinc) in the model were calibrated using available data from 13 sites in and near the Leon Creek watershed for varying periods of record during 1992-2005. Average simulated daily mean water temperature and dissolved oxygen at the most downstream gaging station during 1997-2000 were within 1 percent of average measured daily mean water temperature and dissolved oxygen. Simulated suspended-sediment load at the most downstream gaging station during 2001-04 (excluding July 2002 because of major storms) was 77,700 tons compared with 74,600 tons estimated from a streamflow-load regression relation (coefficient of determination = .869). Simulated concentrations of dissolved ammonia nitrogen and dissolved nitrate nitrogen closely matched measured concentrations after calibration. At the most downstream gaging station, average simulated monthly mean concentrations of dissolved ammonia and nitrate concentrations during 1997-2004 were 0.03 and 0.37 milligram per liter, respectively. For the most downstream station, the measured and simulated concentrations of dissolved and total lead and zinc for stormflows during 1993-97 after calibration do not match particularly closely. For base-flow conditions during 1997-2004 at the most downstream station, the simulated/measured match is better. For example, median simulated concentration of total lead (for 2,041 days) was 0.96 microgram per liter, and median measured concentration (for nine samples) of total lead was 1.0 microgram per liter. To demonstrate an application of the Leon Creek watershed model, streamflow constituent loads and yields for suspended sediment, dissolved nitrate nitrogen, and total lead were simulated at the mouth of Leon Creek (outlet of the watershed) for 1997-2004. The average suspended-sediment load was 51,800 tons per year. The average suspended-sediment yield was 0.34 ton per acre per year. The average load of dissolved nitrate at the outlet of the watershed was 802 tons per year. The corresponding yield was 10.5 pounds per acre per year. The average load of lead at the outlet was 3,900 pounds per year. The average lead yield was 0.026 pound per acre per year. The degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error associated with the Leon Creek model. Major storms contribute most of the streamflow loads for certain constituents. For example, the three largest stormflows contributed about 64 percent of the entire suspended-sediment load at the most downstream station during 1997-2004.

Techniques for estimating streamflow characteristics in the Eastern and Interior coal provinces of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetzel, Kim L.; Bettandorff, J.M.

1986-01-01

Techniques are presented for estimating various streamflow characteristics, such as peak flows, mean monthly and annual flows, flow durations, and flow volumes, at ungaged sites on unregulated streams in the Eastern Coal region. Streamflow data and basin characteristics for 629 gaging stations were used to develop multiple-linear-regression equations. Separate equations were developed for the Eastern and Interior Coal Provinces. Drainage area is an independent variable common to all equations. Other variables needed, depending on the streamflow characteristic, are mean annual precipitation, mean basin elevation, main channel length, basin storage, main channel slope, and forest cover. A ratio of the observed 50- to 90-percent flow durations was used in the development of relations to estimate low-flow frequencies in the Eastern Coal Province. Relations to estimate low flows in the Interior Coal Province are not presented because the standard errors were greater than 0.7500 log units and were considered to be of poor reliability.

Historical perspective of statewide streamflows during the 2002 and 1977 droughts in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard

2005-01-01

Since 1890, Colorado has experienced a number of widespread drought periods; the most recent statewide drought began during 1999 and includes 2002, a year characterized by precipitation, snowpack accumulation, and streamflows that were much lower than normal. Because the drought of 2002 had a substantial effect on streamflows in Colorado, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, began a study in 2004 to analyze statewide streamflows during 2002 and develop a historical perspective of those streamflows. The purpose of this report is to describe an analysis of streamflows recorded throughout Colorado during the drought of 2002, as well as other drought years such as 1977, and to provide some historical perspective of drought-diminished streamflows in Colorado. Because most streamflows in Colorado are derived from melting of mountain snowpacks during April through July, streamflows primarily were analyzed for the snowmelt (high-flow) period, but streamflows also were analyzed for the winter (low-flow) period. The snowmelt period is defined as April 1 through September 30 and the winter period is defined as October 1 through March 31. Historical daily average streamflows were analyzed on the basis of 7, 30, 90, and 180 consecutive-day periods (N-day) for 154 selected stations in Colorado. Methods used for analysis of the N-day snowmelt and winter streamflows include evaluation of trends in the historical streamflow records, computation of the rank of each annual N-day streamflow value for each station, analysis for years other than 2002 and 1977 with drought-diminished streamflows, and frequency analysis (on the basis of nonexceedance probability) of the 180-day streamflows. Ranking analyses for the N-day snowmelt streamflows indicated that streamflows during 2002 were ranked as the lowest or second lowest historical values at 114-123 stations, or about 74-80 percent of the stations; by comparison, the N-day snowmelt streamflows during 1977 were ranked as the lowest or second lowest historical values at 69-87 stations, or about 47-59 percent of the stations. Many of the stations in the mountainous headwaters where snowmelt streamflows were ranked lowest during 2002 were ranked second lowest during 1977. These results indicate that snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were considerably more diminished than those during 1977. The 180-day snowmelt streamflows were ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 90 percent of the stations during 2002 and were ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 77 percent of the stations during 1977. Other years during which the 180-day snowmelt streamflows were ranked among the five lowest values at a substantial percentage of stations include 1934, 1954, 1963, and 1981, but the percentages of stations with 180-day snowmelt streamflows ranked among the five lowest values were smaller during those years than during 2002 and 1977. Frequency analysis of snowmelt streamflows indicated that recurrence intervals for the 180-day snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were greater than 50 years for about 57 percent of the stations and were more than 100 years for about 14 percent of the stations. By comparison, recurrence intervals for the 180-day snowmelt streamflows during 1977 were greater than 50 years only for about 15 percent of the stations and were more than 100 years only for about 1 percent of the stations. Generally, snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were more diminished and have higher recurrence intervals than snowmelt streamflows during 1977. The N-day winter streamflows during 2002 and 1977 were not ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 86-103 stations, or about 58-70 percent of the stations, compared to about 10-27 percent of the stations for the N-day snowmelt streamflows. These results indicate that winter streamflows during the 2002 and 1977 droughts were diminished to a lesser extent than t

Status and trends in suspended-sediment discharges, soil erosion, and conservation tillage in the Maumee River basin--Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, Donna N.; Metzker, Kevin D.; Davis, Steven

2000-01-01

The relation of suspended-sediment discharges to conservation-tillage practices and soil loss were analyzed for the Maumee River Basin in Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana as part of the U.S. Geological Survey?s National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Cropland in the basin is the largest contributor to soil erosion and suspended-sediment discharge to the Maumee River and the river is the largest source of suspended sediments to Lake Erie. Retrospective and recently-collected data from 1970-98 were used to demonstrate that increases in conservation tillage and decreases in soil loss can be related to decreases in suspended-sediment discharge from streams. Average annual water and suspended-sediment budgets computed for the Maumee River Basin and its principal tributaries indicate that soil drainage and runoff potential, stream slope, and agricultural land use are the major human and natural factors related to suspended-sediment discharge. The Tiffin and St. Joseph Rivers drain areas of moderately to somewhat poorly drained soils with moderate runoff potential. Expressed as a percentage of the total for the Maumee River Basin, the St. Joseph and Tiffin Rivers represent 29.0 percent of the basin area, 30.7 percent of the average-annual streamflow, and 9.31 percent of the average annual suspended-sediment discharge. The Auglaize and St. Marys Rivers drain areas of poorly to very poorly drained soils with high runoff potential. Expressed as a percentage of the total for the Maumee River Basin, the Auglaize and St. Marys Rivers represent 48.7 percent of the total basin area, 53.5 percent of the average annual streamflow, and 46.5 percent of the average annual suspended-sediment discharge. Areas of poorly drained soils with high runoff potential appear to be the major source areas of suspended sediment discharge in the Maumee River Basin. Although conservation tillage differed in the degree of use throughout the basin, on aver-age, it was used on 55.4 percent of all crop fields in the Maumee River Basin from 1993-98. Conservation tillage was used at relatively higher rates in areas draining to the lower main stem from Defiance to Waterville, Ohio and at relatively lower rates in the St. Marys and Auglaize River Basins, and in areas draining to the main stem between New Haven, Ind. and Defiance, Ohio. The areas that were identified as the most important sediment-source areas in the basin were characterized by some of the lowest rates of conservation tillage. The increased use of conservation tillage was found to correspond to decreases in suspended-sediment discharge over time at two locations in the Maumee River Basin. A 49.8 percent decrease in suspended-sediment discharge was detected when data from 1970-74 were compared to data from 1996-98 for the Auglaize River near Ft. Jennings, Ohio. A decrease in suspended-sediment discharge of 11.2 percent was detected from 1970?98 for the Maumee River at Waterville, Ohio. No trends in streamflow at either site were detected over the period 1970-98. The lower rate of decline in suspended-sediment discharge for the Maumee River at Waterville, Ohio compared to the Auglaize River near Ft. Jennings, may be due to resuspension and export of stored sediments from drainage ditches, stream channels, and flood plains in the large drainage basin upstream from Waterville. Similar findings by other investigators about the capacity of drainage networks to store sediment are supported by this investigation. These findings go undetected when soil loss estimates are used alone to evaluate the effectiveness of conservation tillage. Water-quality data in combination with soil-loss estimates were needed to draw these conclusions. These findings provide information to farmers and soil conservation agents about the ability of conservation tillage to reduce soil erosion and suspended-sediment discharge from the Maumee River Basin.

An analysis of annual maximum streamflows in Terengganu, Malaysia using TL-moments approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Ummi Nadiah; Shabri, Ani; Zakaria, Zahrahtul Amani

2013-02-01

TL-moments approach has been used in an analysis to determine the best-fitting distributions to represent the annual series of maximum streamflow data over 12 stations in Terengganu, Malaysia. The TL-moments with different trimming values are used to estimate the parameter of the selected distributions namely: generalized pareto (GPA), generalized logistic, and generalized extreme value distribution. The influence of TL-moments on estimated probability distribution functions are examined by evaluating the relative root mean square error and relative bias of quantile estimates through Monte Carlo simulations. The boxplot is used to show the location of the median and the dispersion of the data, which helps in reaching the decisive conclusions. For most of the cases, the results show that TL-moments with one smallest value was trimmed from the conceptual sample (TL-moments (1,0)), of GPA distribution was the most appropriate in majority of the stations for describing the annual maximum streamflow series in Terengganu, Malaysia.

Estimates of ground-water recharge based on streamflow-hydrograph methods: Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.; Conger, Randall W.; Ulrich, James E.; Asmussen, Michael P.

2005-01-01

This study, completed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey (T&GS), provides estimates of ground-water recharge for watersheds throughout Pennsylvania computed by use of two automated streamflow-hydrograph-analysis methods--PART and RORA. The PART computer program uses a hydrograph-separation technique to divide the streamflow hydrograph into components of direct runoff and base flow. Base flow can be a useful approximation of recharge if losses and interbasin transfers of ground water are minimal. The RORA computer program uses a recession-curve displacement technique to estimate ground-water recharge from each storm period indicated on the streamflow hydrograph. Recharge estimates were made using streamflow records collected during 1885-2001 from 197 active and inactive streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania where streamflow is relatively unaffected by regulation. Estimates of mean-annual recharge in Pennsylvania computed by the use of PART ranged from 5.8 to 26.6 inches; estimates from RORA ranged from 7.7 to 29.3 inches. Estimates from the RORA program were about 2 inches greater than those derived from the PART program. Mean-monthly recharge was computed from the RORA program and was reported as a percentage of mean-annual recharge. On the basis of this analysis, the major ground-water recharge period in Pennsylvania typically is November through May; the greatest monthly recharge typically occurs in March.

Mean transit times in headwater catchments: insights from the Otway Ranges, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howcroft, William; Cartwright, Ian; Morgenstern, Uwe

2018-01-01

Understanding the timescales of water flow through catchments and the sources of stream water at different flow conditions is critical for understanding catchment behaviour and managing water resources. Here, tritium (3H) activities, major ion geochemistry and streamflow data were used in conjunction with lumped parameter models (LPMs) to investigate mean transit times (MTTs) and the stores of water in six headwater catchments in the Otway Ranges of southeastern Australia. 3H activities of stream water ranged from 0.20 to 2.14 TU, which are significantly lower than the annual average 3H activity of modern local rainfall, which is between 2.4 and 3.2 TU. The 3H activities of the stream water are lowest during low summer flows and increase with increasing streamflow. The concentrations of most major ions vary little with streamflow, which together with the low 3H activities imply that there is no significant direct input of recent rainfall at the streamflows sampled in this study. Instead, shallow younger water stores in the soils and regolith are most likely mobilised during the wetter months. MTTs vary from approximately 7 to 230 years. Despite uncertainties of several years in the MTTs that arise from having to assume an appropriate LPM, macroscopic mixing, and uncertainties in the 3H activities of rainfall, the conclusion that they range from years to decades is robust. Additionally, the relative differences in MTTs at different streamflows in the same catchment are estimated with more certainty. The MTTs in these and similar headwater catchments in southeastern Australia are longer than in many catchments globally. These differences may reflect the relatively low rainfall and high evapotranspiration rates in southeastern Australia compared with headwater catchments elsewhere. The long MTTs imply that there is a long-lived store of water in these catchments that can sustain the streams over drought periods lasting several years. However, the catchments are likely to be vulnerable to decadal changes in land use or climate. Additionally, there may be considerable delay in contaminants reaching the stream. An increase in nitrate and sulfate concentrations in several catchments at high streamflows may represent the input of contaminants through the shallow groundwater that contributes to streamflow during the wetter months. Poor correlations between 3H activities and catchment area, drainage density, land use, and average slope imply that the MTTs are not controlled by a single parameter but a variety of factors, including catchment geomorphology and the hydraulic properties of the soils and aquifers.

Using diurnal streamflow and conductivity data to monitor and forecast runoff in a snowmelt dominated watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S.; Miller, S. N.

2016-12-01

Natural diurnal fluctuations in streamflow are common in many types of streams and scales for different reasons (i.e. snowmelt, evapotranspiration, infiltration, precipitation). Scientific literature has placed little consideration on the role diurnal cycles as they may appear insignificant from a water management point of view; however, recent insights into the timing and shape of the diurnal cycle have led to new methods for eco-hydrologic characterization of a given watershed. The diurnal effect is usually not detectible from visual investigation of a stream, but requires a minimum of hourly continuous measurement. In the 1990s the United States Geological Survey began collecting hourly river stage measurements for thousands of stream gauge stations across the US, ushering in new methods of analysis and comparison. A nested watershed study with ten stream gauging stations recording sub-hourly river stage was deployed in a snowmelt-dominated region of the Medicine Bow National Forest in southeastern Wyoming in 2013. In addition, at each stream gauging station sub-hourly conductivity and temperature data was recorded to aid in eco-hydrologic characterization of the different watersheds. Early summer results show asymmetry in the diurnal cycle during snowmelt, with a steeper rising and a flatter falling limb. As snowmelt becomes a less contributing component of streamflow later in the season, the asymmetry shifts to a flatter rising limb and steeper falling limb. Stream conductivity is low during snowmelt and begins to gradually increase as baseflow becomes a larger portion of total streamflow. The study region is recovering from a mountain pine beetle epidemic that peaked in 2008. Prior research suggests the bark beetle epidemic has had little effect on annual streamflow patterns; however, several results show an earlier shift in the day of year in which peak annual streamflow is observed. The diurnal cycle is likely to comprise a larger percentage of daily streamflow during snowmelt in post-epidemic forests, as more solar radiation is available to penetrate to the ground surface and induce snowmelt, contributing to the effect of an earlier observed peak annual streamflow.

Evaluation of the effects of Middleton's stormwater-management activities on streamflow and water-quality characteristics of Pheasant Branch, Dane County, Wisconsin 1975-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Rose, William J.; Garn, Herbert S.

2012-01-01

Few long-term data sets are available for evaluating the effects of urban stormwater-management practices. Over 30 years of data are available for evaluating the effectiveness of such practices by the city of Middleton, Wis. Analysis of streamflow and water-quality data collected on Pheasant Branch, demonstrates the relation between the changes in the watershed to the structural and nonstructural best management practices put in place during 1975-2008. A comparison of the data from Pheasant Branch with streamflow and water-quality data (suspended sediment and total phosphorus) collected at other nearby streams was made to assist in the determination of the possible causes of the changes in Pheasant Branch. Based on 34 years of streamflow data collected at the Pheasant Branch at Middleton streamflow-gaging station, flood peak discharges increased 37 percent for the 2-year flood and 83 percent for the 100-year flood. A comparison of data for the same period from an adjacent rural stream, Black Earth at Black Earth had a 43 percent increase in the 2-year flood peak discharge and a 140-percent increase in the 100-year flood peak discharge. Because the flood peak discharges on Pheasant Branch have not increased as much as Black Earth Creek it appears that the stormwater management practices have been successful in mitigating the effects of urbanization. Generally urbanization results in increased flood peak discharges. The overall increase in flood peak discharges seen in both streams probably is the result of the substantial increase in precipitation during the study period. Average annual runoff in Pheasant Branch has also been increasing due to increasing average annual precipitation and urbanization. The stormwater-management practices in Middleton have been successful in decreasing the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus loads to Lake Mendota from the Pheasant Branch watershed. These loads decreased in spite of increased annual runoff and flood peaks, which are often expected to produce higher sediment and phosphorus loads. The biggest decreases in sediment and phosphorus loads occurred after 2001 when a large detention pond, the Confluence Pond, began operation. Since 2001, the annual suspended-sediment load has decreased from 2,650 tons per year to 1,450 tons per year for a 45-percent decrease. The annual total phosphorus load has decreased from 12,200 pounds per year to 6,300 pounds per year for a 48-percent decrease. A comparison of Pheasant Branch at Middleton with two other streams, Spring Harbor Storm Sewer and Yahara River at Windsor, that drain into Lake Mendota shows that suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load decreases were greatest at Pheasant Branch at Middleton. Prior to the construction of the Confluence Pond, annual suspended-sediment yield and total phosphorus yield from Pheasant Branch watershed was the largest of the three watersheds. After 2001, suspended-sediment yield was greatest at Spring Harbor Storm Sewer, and lowest at Yahara at Windsor; annual total phosphorus yield was greater at Yahara River at Windsor than that of Pheasant Branch. The stormwater-quality plan for Middleton shows that the city has met the present State of Wisconsin Administrative Code chap. NR216/NR151 requirements of reducing total suspended solids by 20 percent for the developed area in Middleton. In addition, the city already has met the 40-percent reduction in total suspended solids required by 2013. Snow and ice melt runoff from road surfaces and parking lots following winter storms can effect water quality because the runoff contains varying amounts of road salt. To evaluate the effect of road deicing on stream water quality in Pheasant Branch, specific conductance and chloride were monitored during two winter seasons. The maximum estimated concentration of chloride during the monitoring period was 931 milligrams per liter, which exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency acute criterion of 860 milligrams per liter. Chloride concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chronic criterion of 230 milligrams per liter for at least 10 days during February and March 2007 and for 45 days during the 2007-8 winter seasons. The total sodium chloride load for the monitoring period was 1,720 tons and the largest sodium chloride load occurred in March and April of each year.

Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.

2010-01-01

Methods were developed to assess the effects of dams on streamflow and water temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries. These methods were used to estimate the flows and temperatures that would occur at 14 dam sites in the absence of upstream dams, and river models were applied to simulate downstream flows and temperatures under a no-dams scenario. The dams selected for this study include 13 dams built and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as part of the Willamette Project, and 1 dam on the Clackamas River owned and operated by Portland General Electric (PGE). Streamflows in the absence of upstream dams for 2001-02 were estimated for USACE sites on the basis of measured releases, changes in reservoir storage, a correction for evaporative losses, and an accounting of flow effects from upstream dams. For the PGE dam, no-project streamflows were derived from a previous modeling effort that was part of a dam-relicensing process. Without-dam streamflows were characterized by higher peak flows in winter and spring and much lower flows in late summer, as compared to with-dam measured flows. Without-dam water temperatures were estimated from measured temperatures upstream of the reservoirs (the USACE sites) or derived from no-project model results (the PGE site). When using upstream data to estimate without-dam temperatures at dam sites, a typical downstream warming rate based on historical data and downstream river models was applied over the distance from the measurement point to the dam site, but only for conditions when the temperature data indicated that warming might be expected. Regressions with measured temperatures from nearby or similar sites were used to extend the without-dam temperature estimates to the entire 2001-02 time period. Without-dam temperature estimates were characterized by a more natural seasonal pattern, with a maximum in July or August, in contrast to the measured patterns at many of the tall dam sites where the annual maximum temperature typically occurred in September or October. Without-dam temperatures also tended to have more daily variation than with-dam temperatures. Examination of the without-dam temperature estimates indicated that dam sites could be grouped according to the amount of streamflow derived from high-elevation, spring-fed, and snowmelt-driven areas high in the Cascade Mountains (Cougar, Big Cliff/Detroit, River Mill, and Hills Creek Dams: Group A), as opposed to flow primarily derived from lower-elevation rainfall-driven drainages (Group B). Annual maximum temperatures for Group A ranged from 15 to 20 degree(s)C, expressed as the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADM), whereas annual maximum 7dADM temperatures for Group B ranged from 21 to 25 degrees C. Because summertime stream temperature is at least somewhat dependent on the upstream water source, it was important when estimating without-dam temperatures to use correlations to sites with similar upstream characteristics. For that reason, it also is important to maintain long-term, year-round temperature measurement stations at representative sites in each of the Willamette River basin's physiographic regions. Streamflow and temperature estimates downstream of the major dam sites and throughout the Willamette River were generated using existing CE-QUAL-W2 flow and temperature models. These models, originally developed for the Willamette River water-temperature Total Maximum Daily Load process, required only a few modifications to allow them to run under the greatly reduced without-dam flow conditions. Model scenarios both with and without upstream dams were run. Results showed that Willamette River streamflow without upstream dams was reduced to levels much closer to historical pre-dam conditions, with annual minimum streamflows approximately one-half or less of dam-augmented levels. Thermal effects of the dams varied according to the time of year, from cooling in mid-summer to warm

Water yield issues in the jarrah forest of south-western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruprecht, J. K.; Stoneman, G. L.

1993-10-01

The jarrah forest of south-western Australia produces little streamflow from moderate rainfall. Water yield from water supply catchments for Perth, Western Australia, are low, averaging 71 mm (7% of annual rainfall). The low water yields are attributed to the large soil water storage available for continuous use by the forest vegetation. A number of water yield studies in south-western Australia have examined the impact on water yield of land use practices including clearing for agricultural development, forest harvesting and regeneration, forest thinning and bauxite mining. A permanent reduction in forest cover by clearing for agriculture led to permanent increases of water yield of approximately 28% of annual rainfall in a high rainfall catchment. Thinning of a high rainfall catchment led to an increase in water yield of 20% of annual rainfall. However, it is not clear for how long the increased water yield will persist. Forest harvesting and regeneration have led to water yield increases of 16% of annual rainfall. The subsequent recovery of vegetation cover has led to water yields returning to pre-disturbance levels after an estimated 12-15 years. Bauxite mining of a high rainfall catchment led to a water yield increase of 8% of annual rainfall, followed by a return to pre-disturbance water yield after 12 years. The magnitude of specific streamflow generation mechanisms in small catchments subject to forest disturbance vary considerably, typically in a number of distinct stages. The presence of a permanent groundwater discharge area was shown to be instrumental in determining the magnitude of the streamflow response after forest disturbance. The long-term prognosis for water yield from areas subject to forest thinning, harvesting and regeneration, and bauxite mining are uncertain, owing to the complex interrelationship between vegetation cover, tree height and age, and catchment evapotranspiration. Management of the forest for water yield needs to acknowledge this complexity and evaluate forest management strategies both at the large catchment scale and at long time-scales. The extensive network of small catchment experiments, regional studies, process studies and catchment modelling at both the small and large scale, which are carried out in the jarrah forest, are all considered as integral components of the research to develop these management strategies to optimise water yield from the jarrah forest, without forfeiting other forest values.

Estimates of Sediment Load Prior to Dam Removal in the Elwha River, Clallam County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Christopher A.; Konrad, Christopher P.; Higgins, Johnna L.; Bryant, Mark K.

2009-01-01

Years after the removal of the two dams on the Elwha River, the geomorphology and habitat of the lower river will be substantially influenced by the sediment load of the free-flowing river. To estimate the suspended-sediment load prior to removal of the dams, the U.S. Geological Survey collected suspended-sediment samples during water years 2006 and 2007 at streamflow-gaging stations on the Elwha River upstream of Lake Mills and downstream of Glines Canyon Dam at McDonald Bridge. At the gaging station upstream of Lake Mills, discrete samples of suspended sediment were collected over a range of streamflows including a large peak in November 2006 when suspended-sediment concentrations exceeded 7,000 milligrams per liter, the highest concentrations recorded on the river. Based on field measurements in this study and from previous years, regression equations were developed for estimating suspended-sediment and bedload discharge as a function of streamflow. Using a flow duration approach, the average total annual sediment load at the gaging station upstream of Lake Mills was estimated at 327,000 megagrams with a range of uncertainty of +57 to -34 percent (217,000-513,000 megagrams) at the 95 percent confidence level; 77 percent of the total was suspended-sediment load and 23 percent was bedload. At the McDonald Bridge gaging station, daily suspended-sediment samples were obtained using an automated pump sampler, and concentrations were combined with the record of streamflow to calculate daily, monthly, and annual suspended-sediment loads. In water year 2006, an annual suspended-sediment load of 49,300 megagrams was determined at the gaging station at McDonald Bridge, and a load of 186,000 megagrams was determined upstream at the gaging station upstream of Lake Mills. In water year 2007, the suspended-sediment load was 75,200 megagrams at McDonald Bridge and 233,000 megagrams upstream of Lake Mills. The large difference between suspended-sediment loads at both gaging stations shows the extent of sediment trapping by Lake Mills, and a trap efficiency of 0.86 was determined for the reservoir. Pre-dam-removal estimates of suspended-sediment load and sediment-discharge relations will help planners monitor geomorphic and habitat changes in the river as it reaches a dynamic equilibrium following the removal of dams.

Evaluation of Streamflow Requirements for Habitat Protection by Comparison to Streamflow Characteristics at Index Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Southern New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Parker, Gene W.; Richards, Todd A.

2003-01-01

Streamflow characteristics and methods for determining streamflow requirements for habitat protection were investigated at 23 active index streamflow-gaging stations in southern New England. Fish communities sampled near index streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts have a high percentage of fish that require flowing-water habitats for some or all of their life cycle. The relatively unaltered flow condition at these sites was assumed to be one factor that has contributed to this condition. Monthly flow durations and low flow statistics were determined for the index streamflow-gaging stations for a 25- year period from 1976 to 2000. Annual hydrographs were prepared for each index station from median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area. A median monthly flow of 1 ft3/s/mi2 was used to split hydrographs into a high-flow period (November–May), and a low-flow period (June–October). The hydrographs were used to classify index stations into groups with similar median monthly flow durations. Index stations were divided into four regional groups, roughly paralleling the coast, to characterize streamflows for November to May; and into two groups, on the basis of base-flow index and percentage of sand and gravel in the contributing area, for June to October. For the June to October period, for index stations with a high base-flow index and contributing areas greater than 20 percent sand and gravel, median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area, were 0.57, 0.49, and 0.46 ft3/s/mi2 for July, August, and September, respectively. For index stations with a low base-flow index and contributing areas less than 20 percent sand and gravel, median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area, were 0.34, 0.28, and 0.27 ft3/s/mi2 for July, August, and September, respectively. Streamflow variability between wet and dry years can be characterized by use of the interquartile range of median streamflows at selected monthly flow durations. For example, the median Q50 discharge for August had an interquartile range of 0.30 to 0.87 ft3/s/mi2 for the high-flow group and 0.16 to 0.47 ft3/s/mi2 for the low-flow group. Streamflow requirements for habitat protection were determined for 23 index stations by use of three methods based on hydrologic records, the Range of Variability Approach, the Tennant method, and the New England Aquatic-Base-Flow method. Normalized flow management targets determined by the Range of Variability Approach for July, August, and September ranged between 0.21 and 0.84 ft3/s/mi2 for the low monthly flow duration group, and 0.37 and 1.27 ft3/s/mi2 for the high monthly flow duration group. Median streamflow requirements for habitat protection during summer for the 23 index streamflow-gaging stations determined by the Tennant method, normalized by drainage area, were 0.81, 0.61, and 0.21 ft3/s/mi2 for the Tennant 40-, 30-, and 10-percent of the mean annual flow methods, representing good, fair, and poor stream habitat conditions in summer, according to Tennant. New England Aquatic-Base-Flow streamflow requirements for habitat protection during summer were determined from median of monthly mean flows for August for index streamflow-gaging stations having drainage areas greater than 50 mi2 . For five index streamflow-gaging stations in the low median monthly flow group, the average median monthly mean streamflow for August, normalized by drainage area, was 0.48 ft3/s/mi2. Streamflow requirements for habitat protection were determined for riffle habitats near 10 index stations by use of two methods based on hydraulic ratings, the Wetted-Perimeter and R2Cross methods. Hydraulic parameters required by these methods were simulated by calibrated HEC-RAS models. Wetted-Perimeter streamflow requirements for habitat protection, normalized by drainage area, ranged between 0.13 and 0.58 ft3/s/mi2, and had a median value of 0.37 ft3/s/mi2. Streamflow requirements determined by the R2Cross 3-of-3 criteria method ranged between 0.39 and 2.1 ft3/s/mi2 , and had a median of 0.84 ft3/s/mi2. Streamflow requirements determined by the R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria method, normalized by drainage area, ranged between 0.16 and 0.85 ft3/s/mi2 and had a median of 0.36 ft3/s/mi2 , respectively. Streamflow requirements determined by the different methods were evaluated by comparison to streamflow statistics from the index streamflow-gaging stations.

Temporal and spatial changes of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tekezē-Atbara river basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebremicael, Tesfay G.; Mohamed, Yasir A.; Zaag, Pieter v.; Hagos, Eyasu Y.

2017-04-01

The Upper Tekezē-Atbara river sub-basin, part of the Nile Basin, is characterized by high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow. In spite of its importance for sustainable water use and food security, the changing patterns of streamflow and its association with climate change is not well understood. This study aims to improve the understanding of the linkages between rainfall and streamflow trends and identify possible drivers of streamflow variabilities in the basin. Trend analyses and change-point detections of rainfall and streamflow were analysed using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively, using data records for 21 rainfall and 9 streamflow stations. The nature of changes and linkages between rainfall and streamflow were carefully examined for monthly, seasonal and annual flows, as well as indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA). The trend and change-point analyses found that 19 of the tested 21 rainfall stations did not show statistically significant changes. In contrast, trend analyses on the streamflow showed both significant increasing and decreasing patterns. A decreasing trend in the dry season (October to February), short season (March to May), main rainy season (June to September) and annual totals is dominant in six out of the nine stations. Only one out of nine gauging stations experienced significant increasing flow in the dry and short rainy seasons, attributed to the construction of Tekezē hydropower dam upstream this station in 2009. Overall, streamflow trends and change-point timings were found to be inconsistent among the stations. Changes in streamflow without significant change in rainfall suggests factors other than rainfall drive the change. Most likely the observed changes in streamflow regimes could be due to changes in catchment characteristics of the basin. Further studies are needed to verify and quantify the hydrological changes shown in statistical tests by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. The findings from this study are useful as a prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological variabilities in the basin.

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2004-01-01

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics?drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall?are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic?drainage area?also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows?one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual maximum flows at the gaging station, and the other estimate from the regression equation?are weighted together based on the years of record at the gaging station and the equivalent years of record value determined from the regression. Weighted averages of flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are tabulated for the 70 streamflow-gaging stations used in the regression analysis. Generally, weighted averages give the most accurate estimate of flood flows at gaging stations. An evaluation of the Connecticut's streamflow-gaging network was performed to determine whether the spatial coverage and range of geographic and hydrologic conditions are adequately represented for transferring flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites. Fifty-one of 54 stations in the current (2004) network support one or more flood needs of federal, state, and local agencies. Twenty-five of 54 stations in the current network are considered high-priority stations by the U.S. Geological Survey because of their contribution to the longterm understanding of floods, and their application for regionalflood analysis. Enhancements to the network to improve overall effectiveness for regionalization can be made by increasing the spatial coverage of gaging stations, establishing stations in regions of the state that are not well-represented, and adding stations in basins with drainage area sizes not represented. Additionally, the usefulness of the network for characterizing floods can be maintained and improved by continuing operation at the current stations because flood flows can be more accurately estimated at stations with continuous, long-term record.

An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John C.; Wallick, J. Rose; Mangano, Joseph F.; Jones, Krista L.

2012-01-01

The Santiam River is a tributary of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon and drains an area of 1,810 square miles. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates four dams in the basin, which are used primarily for flood control, hydropower production, recreation, and water-quality improvement. The Detroit and Big Cliff Dams were constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River. The Green Peter and Foster Dams were completed in 1967 on the South Santiam River. The impacts of the structures have included a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of floods and an increase in low flows. For three North Santiam River reaches, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 42–50 percent because of regulated streamflow conditions. Likewise, for three reaches in the South Santiam River basin, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 39–52 percent because of regulation. In contrast to their effect on high flows, the dams increased low flows. The median of annual 7-day minimum flows in six of the seven study reaches increased under regulated streamflow conditions between 60 and 334 percent. On a seasonal basis, median monthly streamflows decreased from February to May and increased from September to January in all the reaches. However, the magnitude of these impacts usually decreased farther downstream from dams because of cumulative inflow from unregulated tributaries and groundwater entering the North, South, and main-stem Santiam Rivers below the dams. A Wilcox rank-sum test of monthly precipitation data from Salem, Oregon, and Waterloo, Oregon, found no significant difference between the pre-and post-dam periods, which suggests that the construction and operation of the dams since the 1950s and 1960s are a primary cause of alterations to the Santiam River basin streamflow regime. In addition to the streamflow analysis, this report provides a geomorphic characterization of the Santiam River basin and the associated conceptual framework for assessing possible geomorphic and ecological changes in response to river-flow modifications. Suggestions for future biomonitoring and investigations are also provided. This study was one in a series of similar tributary streamflow and geomorphic studies conducted for the Willamette Sustainable Rivers Project. The Sustainable Rivers Project is a national effort by the USACE and The Nature Conservancy to develop environmental flow requirements in regulated river systems.

Estimation of selected streamflow statistics for a network of low-flow partial-record stations in areas affected by Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) in Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Eng, Ken

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maryland Department of the Environment, operated a network of 20 low-flow partial-record stations during 2008 in a region that extends from southwest of Baltimore to the northeastern corner of Maryland to obtain estimates of selected streamflow statistics at the station locations. The study area is expected to face a substantial influx of new residents and businesses as a result of military and civilian personnel transfers associated with the Federal Base Realignment and Closure Act of 2005. The estimated streamflow statistics, which include monthly 85-percent duration flows, the 10-year recurrence-interval minimum base flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, are needed to provide a better understanding of the availability of water resources in the area to be affected by base-realignment activities. Streamflow measurements collected for this study at the low-flow partial-record stations and measurements collected previously for 8 of the 20 stations were related to concurrent daily flows at nearby index streamgages to estimate the streamflow statistics. Three methods were used to estimate the streamflow statistics and two methods were used to select the index streamgages. Of the three methods used to estimate the streamflow statistics, two of them--the Moments and MOVE1 methods--rely on correlating the streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record stations with concurrent streamflows at nearby, hydrologically similar index streamgages to determine the estimates. These methods, recommended for use by the U.S. Geological Survey, generally require about 10 streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record station. The third method transfers the streamflow statistics from the index streamgage to the partial-record station based on the average of the ratios of the measured streamflows at the partial-record station to the concurrent streamflows at the index streamgage. This method can be used with as few as one pair of streamflow measurements made on a single streamflow recession at the low-flow partial-record station, although additional pairs of measurements will increase the accuracy of the estimates. Errors associated with the two correlation methods generally were lower than the errors associated with the flow-ratio method, but the advantages of the flow-ratio method are that it can produce reasonably accurate estimates from streamflow measurements much faster and at lower cost than estimates obtained using the correlation methods. The two index-streamgage selection methods were (1) selection based on the highest correlation coefficient between the low-flow partial-record station and the index streamgages, and (2) selection based on Euclidean distance, where the Euclidean distance was computed as a function of geographic proximity and the basin characteristics: drainage area, percentage of forested area, percentage of impervious area, and the base-flow recession time constant, t. Method 1 generally selected index streamgages that were significantly closer to the low-flow partial-record stations than method 2. The errors associated with the estimated streamflow statistics generally were lower for method 1 than for method 2, but the differences were not statistically significant. The flow-ratio method for estimating streamflow statistics at low-flow partial-record stations was shown to be independent from the two correlation-based estimation methods. As a result, final estimates were determined for eight low-flow partial-record stations by weighting estimates from the flow-ratio method with estimates from one of the two correlation methods according to the respective variances of the estimates. Average standard errors of estimate for the final estimates ranged from 90.0 to 7.0 percent, with an average value of 26.5 percent. Average standard errors of estimate for the weighted estimates were, on average, 4.3 percent less than the best average standard errors of estima

Use of sediment rating curves and optical backscatter data to characterize sediment transport in the Upper Yuba River watershed, California, 2001-03

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtis, Jennifer A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Alpers, Charles N.; Wright, Scott A.; Snyder, Noah P.

2006-01-01

Sediment transport in the upper Yuba River watershed, California, was evaluated from October 2001 through September 2003. This report presents results of a three-year study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Ecosystem Restoration Program of the California Bay-Delta Authority and the California Resources Agency. Streamflow and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) samples were collected at four gaging stations; however, this report focuses on sediment transport at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) and the South Yuba River (11417500) gaging stations. Seasonal suspended-sediment rating curves were developed using a group-average method and non-linear least-squares regression. Bed-load transport relations were used to develop bed-load rating curves, and bed-load measurements were collected to assess the accuracy of these curves. Annual suspended-sediment loads estimated using seasonal SSC rating curves were compared with previously published annual loads estimated using the Graphical Constituent Loading Analysis System (GCLAS). The percent difference ranged from -85 percent to +54 percent and averaged -7.5 percent. During water year 2003 optical backscatter sensors (OBS) were installed to assess event-based suspended-sediment transport. Event-based suspended-sediment loads calculated using seasonal SSC rating curves were compared with loads calculated using calibrated OBS output. The percent difference ranged from +50 percent to -369 percent and averaged -79 percent. The estimated average annual sediment yield at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) gage (5 tons/mi2) was significantly lower than that estimated at the South Yuba River (11417500) gage (14 tons/mi2). In both rivers, bed load represented 1 percent or less of the total annual load throughout the project period. Suspended sediment at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) and South Yuba River (11417500) gages was typically greater than 85 percent silt and clay during water year 2003, and sand concentrations at the South Yuba River (11417500) gage were typically higher than those at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) gage for a given streamflow throughout the three year project period. Factors contributing to differences in sediment loads and grain-size distributions at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) and South Yuba River (11417500) gages include contributing drainage area, flow diversions, and deposition of bed-material-sized sediment in reservoirs upstream of the Middle Yuba River (11410000) gage. Owing to its larger drainage area, higher flows, and absence of man-made structures that restrict sediment movement in the lower basin, the South Yuba River transports a greater and coarser sediment load.

Suspended sediment and bedload in the First Broad River Basin in Cleveland County, North Carolina, 2008-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hazell, William F.; Huffman, Brad A.

2011-01-01

A study was conducted to characterize sediment transport upstream and downstream from a proposed dam on the First Broad River near the town of Lawndale in Cleveland County, North Carolina. Streamflow was measured continuously, and 381 suspended-sediment samples were collected between late March 2008 and September 2009 at two monitoring stations on the First Broad River to determine the suspended-sediment load at each site for the period April 2008-September 2009. In addition, 22 bedload samples were collected at the two sites to describe the relative contribution of bedload to total sediment load during selected events. Instantaneous streamflow, suspended-sediment, and bedload samples were collected at Knob Creek near Lawndale, North Carolina, to describe general suspended-sediment and bedload characteristics at this tributary to the First Broad River. Suspended- and bedload-sediment samples were collected at all three sites during a variety of flow conditions. Streamflow and suspended-sediment measurements were compared with historical data from a long-term (1959-2009) streamflow station located upstream from Lawndale. The mean streamflow at the long-term streamflow station was approximately 60 percent less during the study period than the long-term annual mean streamflow for the site. Suspended-sediment concentrations and continuous records of streamflow were used to estimate suspended-sediment loads and yields at the two monitoring stations on the First Broad River for the period April 2008-September 2009 and for a complete annual cycle (October 2008-September 2009), also known as a water year. Total suspended-sediment loads during water year 2009 were 18,700 and 36,500 tons at the two sites. High-flow events accounted for a large percentage of the total load, suggesting that the bulk of the total suspended-sediment load was transported during these events. Suspended-sediment yields during water year 2009 were 145 and 192 tons per square mile at the two monitoring stations. Historically, the estimated mean annual suspended-sediment yield at the long-term streamflow station during the period 1970-1979 was 250 tons per square mile, with an estimated mean annual suspended-sediment load of 15,000 tons. Drought conditions throughout most of the study period were a potential factor in the smaller yields at the monitoring stations compared to the yields estimated at the long-term streamflow station in the 1970s. During an extreme runoff event on January 7, 2009, bedload was 0.4 percent, 0.8 percent, and 0.1 percent of the total load at the three study sites, which indicates that during extreme runoff conditions the percentage of the total load that is bedload is not significant. The percentages of the total load that is bedload during low-flow conditions ranged from 0.1 to 90.8, which indicate that the bedload is variable both spatially and temporally.

Sediment transport and water-quality characteristics and loads, White River, northwestern Colorado, water years 1975-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tobin, R.L.

1993-01-01

Streamflow, sediment, and water-quality data are summarized for 6 sites on the White River, Colorado for water years 1975-88. Correlation techniques were used to estimate annual data for unmeasured years. Annual stream discharge in the main stem of the White River ranged from about 200,000 to about 1 million acre-feet. Generally, bedload was less than/= 3.3 percent of total sediment load. Annual suspended-sediment loads ranged from about 2,100 tons at the upstream sites on the North Fork and South Fork of the White River to about 2 million tons at the most downstream site. Average annual suspended-sediment loads ranged from about 11,000 tons at the upstream sites to about 705,000 tons at the most downstream site. Annual capacity losses in a 50,000 acre-ft reservoir could range from less than 0.01 percent near upstream sites to about 2.5 percent near downstream sites. Maximum water temperatures in the White River ranged from less than 20 to 25 C in summer. Specific conductance ranged from 200 to 1,000 microsiemens/cm. Generally, values of pH ranged from 7.6 to 8.8, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen were greater than 6.0 mg/L. In small streamflows, values of pH and dissolved oxygen were affected by biologic processes. Composition of dissolved solids in the White River was mostly calcium, bicarbonate, and(or) sulfate. Changes in the composition of dissolved solids caused by the changes in the concentrations of sodium and sulfate were greatest in small stream discharges. Annual loads of dissolved solids ranged from 21,100 tons in the South Fork to about 480,000 tons at the most downstream site. Total solids transport in the White River was mostly as dissolved solids at upstream sites and mostly as suspended sediment at downstream sites. Concentration ranges of nutrients and trace constituents were determined.

Index-based framework for assessing climate change impact on wetlands in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Keeffe, Joanna; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Utratna, Marta; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Okruszko, Tomasz

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to impact the water cycle through changing the precipitation levels, river streamflows, soil moisture dynamics and therefore pose a threat to groundwater and surface-water fed wetlands and their biodiversity. We examined the past trends and future impacts of climate change on streamflow and soil water content. Simulation results from 1971 to 2000 (historical period) and from 2021 to 2100 (future period) were obtained with the use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Hydrological modelling was driven by a set of nine EUROCORDEX Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP's) of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories: 4.5 and 8.5. A special focus was made on water dependent habitats within the Special Areas of Conservation (SAC's) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. A habitat assessment was carried out to distinguish groundwater and surface water fed wetlands. By establishing threshold values of streamflow at bankfull flow we were able to identify flood events. Changes in frequency of the floods informed about the alteration to the water supply for wetlands reliant on inundation. The groundwater-fed wetlands were assessed on the basis of the soil water content. The model outputs were used to develop indices which were calculated for the climate change scenarios. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil water content and streamflow dynamics with average annual precipitation showed largely consistent patterns. The developed indicators are sensitive to projected changes in hydrologic regime in the conditions of changing climate. The results show influence of climate change on floodplain and groundwater-fed wetlands and show the number and kind of wetlands threatened in different regions of Poland. SAC's will play an important role of buffers and water regulators as soil water content in SAC's is projected to be higher than average for the future scenarios.

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Markstrom, Steve L.; Regan, R. Steve; Elliott, Caroline M.; Jones, John W.

2013-01-01

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Streamflow trends in the Spokane River and tributaries, Spokane Valley/Rathdrum Prairie, Idaho and Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hortness, Jon E.; Covert, John J.

2005-01-01

A clear understanding of the aquifer and river dynamics within the Spokane Valley/Rathdrum Prairie is essential in making proper management decisions concerning ground-water and surface-water appropriations. Management of the Spokane Valley/Rathdrum Prairie aquifer is complicated because of interstate, multi-jurisdictional responsibilities, and by the interaction between ground water and surface water. Kendall?s tau trend analyses were completed on monthly mean (July through December) and annual 7-day low streamflow data for the period 1968?2002 from gaging stations located within the Spokane Valley/Rathdrum Prairie. The analyses detected trends of decreasing monthly mean streamflow at the following gaging stations: Spokane River near Post Falls, Idaho (August and September); Spokane River at Spokane, Washington (September); and Little Spokane River at Dartford, Washington (September and October); and decreasing annual 7-day low streamflows at the following gaging stations: Spokane River near Post Falls, Idaho and Spokane River at Spokane, Washington. Limited analyses of lake-level, precipitation, tributary inflow, temperature, and water-use data provided little insight as to the reason for the decreasing trends in streamflow. A net gain in streamflow occurs between the gaging stations Spokane River near Post Falls, Idaho and Spokane River at Spokane, Washington. Significant streamflow losses occur between the gaging stations Spokane River near Post Falls, Idaho and Spokane River at Greenacres, Washington; most, if not all, of the gains occur downstream from the Greenacres gaging station. Trends of decreasing net streamflow gains in the Spokane River between the near Post Falls and at Spokane gaging stations were detected for the months of September, October, and November.

SWToolbox: A surface-water tool-box for statistical analysis of streamflow time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiang, Julie E.; Flynn, Kate; Zhai, Tong; Hummel, Paul; Granato, Gregory

2018-03-07

This report is a user guide for the low-flow analysis methods provided with version 1.0 of the Surface Water Toolbox (SWToolbox) computer program. The software combines functionality from two software programs—U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) SWSTAT and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) DFLOW. Both of these programs have been used primarily for computation of critical low-flow statistics. The main analysis methods are the computation of hydrologic frequency statistics such as the 7-day minimum flow that occurs on average only once every 10 years (7Q10), computation of design flows including biologically based flows, and computation of flow-duration curves and duration hydrographs. Other annual, monthly, and seasonal statistics can also be computed. The interface facilitates retrieval of streamflow discharge data from the USGS National Water Information System and outputs text reports for a record of the analysis. Tools for graphing data and screening tests are available to assist the analyst in conducting the analysis.

The cumulative effects of forest disturbance and climate variability on baseflow in a large forested watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Wei, A.; Giles-Hansen, K.; Zhang, M.; Liu, W.

2016-12-01

Assessing how forest disturbance and climate change affect baseflow or groundwater discharge is critical for understanding water resource supply and protecting aquatic functions. Previous studies have mainly evaluated the effects of forest disturbance on streamflow, with rare attention on baseflow, particularly in large watersheds. However, studying this topic is challenging as it requires explicit inclusion of climate into assessment due to their interactions at any large watersheds. In this study, we used Upper Similkameen River watershed (USR) (1810 km2), located in the southern interior of British Columbia, Canada to examine how forest disturbance and climate variability affect baseflow. The conductivity mass balance method was first used for baseflow separation, and the modified double mass curves were then employed to quantitatively separate the relative contributions of forest disturbance and climate variability to annual baseflow. Our results showed that average annual baseflow and baseflow index (baseflow/streamflow) were about 85.2 ± 21.5 mm year-1 and 0.22 ± 0.05 for the study period of 1954-2013, respectively. The forest disturbance increased the annual baseflow of 18.4 mm, while climate variability decreased 19.4 mm. In addition, forest disturbance also shifted the baseflow regime with increasing of the spring baseflow and decreasing of the summer baseflow. We conclude that forest disturbance significantly altered the baseflow magnitudes and patterns, and its role in annual baseflow was equal to that caused by climate variability in the study watershed despite their opposite changing directions. The implications of our results are discussed in the context of future forest disturbance (or land cover changes) and climate changes.

Analysis of trends in climate, streamflow, and stream temperature in north coastal California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madej, Mary Ann; Medley, C. Nicholas; Patterson, Glenn; Parker, Melanie J.

2011-01-01

As part of a broader project analyzing trends in climate, streamflow, vegetation, salmon, and ocean conditions in northern California national park units, we compiled average monthly air temperature and precipitation data from 73 climate stations, streamflow data from 21 river gaging stations, and limited stream temperature data from salmon-bearing rivers in north coastal California. Many climate stations show a statistically significant increase in both average maximum and average minimum air temperature in early fall and midwinter during the last century. Concurrently, average September precipitation has decreased. In many coastal rivers, summer low flow has decreased and summer stream temperatures have increased, which affects summer rearing habitat for salmonids. Nevertheless, because vegetative cover has also changed during this time period, we cannot ascribe streamflow changes to climate change without first assessing water budgets. Although shifts in the timing of the centroid of runoff have been documented in snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the western United States, this was not the case in lower elevation coastal rivers analyzed in this study.

Surface water of Beaver Creek Basin, in South-Central Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.; Murphy, J.J.

1962-01-01

Annual discharge from Beaver Creek basin is estimated to have averaged 217,000 acre-feet during a 19-year base period, water years 1938-56, equivalent to an average annual runoff depth of 4.7 inches over the 857 square-mile drainage area. About 55,000 acre-feet per year comes from Little Beaver Creek basin, a tributary drainage of 195 square miles. Yearly streamflow is highly variable. The discharge of Little Beaver Creek near Duncan during 13-year period of record (water years 1949-61) has ranged from 86,530 acre-feet in calendar year 1957 to 4,880 acre-feet in 1956, a ratio of almost 18 to 1. Highest runoff within a year tends to occur in the spring months of May and June, a 2-month period that, on the average, accounts for more than half of the annual discharge of Little Beaver Creek near Duncan. The average monthly runoff during record was lowest in January. Variation in daily streamflow is such that while the average discharge for the 13-year period of record was 50.1 cfs (cubic feet per second), the daily discharge was more than 6 cfs only about half of the time. There was no flow at the site 19 percent of the time during the period. Some base runoff usually exists in the headwaters of Beaver and Little Beaver Creeks, and in the lower reaches of Beaver Creek. Low flow in Cow Creek tends to be sustained by waste water from Duncan, where water use in 1961 averaged 4 million gallons per day. In the remainder of the basin, periods of no flow occur in most years. The surface water of Beaver Creek basin is very hard but in general is usable for municipal, agricultural and industrial purposes. The chemical character of the water is predominantly a calcium, magnesium bicarbonate type of water in the lower three quarters of the basin, except in Cow Creek where oil-field brines induce a distinct sodium, calcium chloride characteristic at low and medium flows. A calcium sulfate type of water occurs in most of the northern part of the basin except in headwater areas underlain by the Rush Springs Sandstone, where quality is similar to that in the lower basin. The report gives an estimate of the average discharge at several sites in Beaver Creek basin for a 19-year base period, October 1937 to September 1956. Duration curves of daily discharge for Little Beaver Creek near Duncan and Beaver Creek near Waurika are shown for the period of record. Monthly and annual discharge records for these gaging stations are presented. The results of 52 discharge measurements at 17 other sites in the basin are tabulated, with 5 groups being plotted as discharge profiles. Storage requirements for regulated discharge at the two gaging stations are shown. (available as photostat copy only)

New Jersey StreamStats: A web application for streamflow statistics and basin characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Janowicz, Jon A.

2017-08-02

StreamStats is an interactive, map-based web application from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics and watershed characteristics for both gaged and ungaged sites on streams throughout New Jersey. Users can determine flood magnitude and frequency, monthly flow-duration, monthly low-flow frequency statistics, and watershed characteristics for ungaged sites by selecting a point along a stream, or they can obtain this information for streamgages by selecting a streamgage location on the map. StreamStats provides several additional tools useful for water-resources planning and management, as well as for engineering purposes. StreamStats is available for most states and some river basins through a single web portal.Streamflow statistics for water resources professionals include the 1-percent annual chance flood flow (100-year peak flow) used to define flood plain areas and the monthly 7-day, 10-year low flow (M7D10Y) used in water supply management and studies of recreation, wildlife conservation, and wastewater dilution. Additionally, watershed or basin characteristics, including drainage area, percent area forested, and average percent of impervious areas, are commonly used in land-use planning and environmental assessments. These characteristics are easily derived through StreamStats.

Streamflow characteristics of small tributaries of Rock Creek, Milk River basin, Montana, base period water years 1983-87

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1990-01-01

Five streamflow-gaging stations were installed in the Rock Creek basin north of the Milk River near Hinsdale, Montana. Streamflow was monitored at these stations and at an existing gaging station upstream on Rock Creek from May 1983 through September 1987. The data collected were used to describe the flow characteristics of four small tributary streams. Annual mean streamflow ranges from 2.8 to 57 cu ft/sec in the mainstem and from 0 to 0.60 cu ft/sec in the tributaries. Monthly mean streamflow ranged from 0 to 528 cu ft/sec in Rock Creek and from zero to 5.3 cu ft/sec in the four tributaries. The six gaged sites show similar patterns of daily mean streamflow during periods of large runoff, but substantial individual variations during periods of lesser runoff. During periods of lesser runoff , the small tributaries may have small daily mean streamflows. At other times, daily mean streamflow at the two mainstem sites decreased downstream. Daily mean streamflow in the tributaries appears to be closely related to daily mean streamflow in the mainstem only during periods of substantial area-wide runoff. Thus, streamflow in the tributaries resulting from local storms or local snowmelt may not contribute to streamflow in the mainstem. (USGS)

The influence of watershed characteristics on spatial patterns of trends in annual scale streamflow variability in the continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.

2016-09-01

As human activity and climate variability alter the movement of water through the environment the need to better understand hydrologic cycle responses to these changes has grown. A reasonable starting point for gaining such insight is studying changes in streamflow given the importance of streamflow as a source of renewable freshwater. Using a wavelet assisted method we analyzed trends in the magnitude of annual scale streamflow variability from 967 watersheds in the continental U.S. (CONUS) over a 70 year period (1940-2009). Decreased annual variability was the dominant pattern at the CONUS scale. Ecoregion scale results agreed with the CONUS pattern with the exception of two ecoregions closely divided between increases and decreases and one where increases dominated. A comparison of trends in reference and non-reference watersheds indicated that trend magnitudes in non-reference watersheds were significantly larger than those in reference watersheds. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were used to study the relationship between watershed characteristics and the magnitude of trends in streamflow. At the CONUS scale, the balance between precipitation and evaporative demand, and measures of geographic location were of high relative importance. Relationships between the magnitude of trends and watershed characteristics at the ecoregion scale exhibited differences from the CONUS results and substantial variability was observed among ecoregions. Additionally, the methodology used here has the potential to serve as a robust framework for top-down, data driven analyses of the relationships between changes in the hydrologic cycle and the spatial context within which those changes occur.

Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.

PubMed

de Jong, Pieter; Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza; Sánchez, Antonio Santos; Dargaville, Roger; Kiperstok, Asher; Torres, Ednildo Andrade

2018-09-01

By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25-50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961-90 long-term average. Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been below its long-term average every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be even more severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC high emissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changing characteristics of streamflow in the Midwest and its relation to oceanic-atmospheric oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakur, B.; Pathak, P.; Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2016-12-01

The identification of primary drivers of streamflow may prove beneficial in forecasting streamflow in the Midwestern U.S. In the past researches, streamflow in the region have been strongly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The present study takes in to account the pre-defined Pacific and Atlantic Ocean regions (e.g., ENSO, PDO, AMO) along with new regions with an intent to identify new significantly correlated regions. This study assesses the interrelationship between sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and seasonal streamflow in the Midwestern U.S. Average Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies, were calculated for 2 different 3 month series: September-November and December-February so as to create a lead time varying from 3 to 9 months. Streamflow were averaged for three seasons: spring (April-June), spring-summer (April-August) and summer (June-August). The correlation between streamflow and SST is analyzed using singular value decomposition for a period of 1960-2013. The result of the study showed several regions-other than the known Pacific and Atlantic Ocean regions- that were significantly correlated with streamflow stations. Higher correlation between the climate indices and streamflow were observed as the lead time decreased. The identification of the associations between SST and streamflow and significant SST regions in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean may enhance the skill of streamflow predictability and water management in the region.

Searching for signposts: Adaptive planning thresholds in long-term water supply projections for the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, B.; Herman, J. D.

2017-12-01

Long-term water supply planning is challenged by highly uncertain streamflow projections across climate models and emissions scenarios. Recent studies have devised infrastructure and policy responses that can withstand or adapt to an ensemble of scenarios, particularly those outside the envelope of historical variability. An important aspect of this process is whether the proposed thresholds for adaptation (i.e., observations that trigger a response) truly represent a trend toward future change. Here we propose an approach to connect observations of annual mean streamflow with long-term projections by filtering GCM-based streamflow ensembles. Visualizations are developed to investigate whether observed changes in mean annual streamflow can be linked to projected changes in end-of-century mean and variance relative to the full ensemble. A key focus is identifying thresholds that point to significant long-term changes in the distribution of streamflow (+/- 20% or greater) as early as possible. The analysis is performed on 87 sites in the Western United States, using streamflow ensembles through 2100 from a recent study by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Results focus on three primary questions: (1) how many years of observed data are needed to identify the most extreme scenarios, and by what year can they be identified? (2) are these features different between sites? and (3) using this analysis, do observed flows to date at each site point to significant long-term changes? This study addresses the challenge of severe uncertainty in long-term streamflow projections by identifying key thresholds that can be observed to support water supply planning.

Streamflow record extension for selected streams in the Susitna River Basin, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.

2012-01-01

Daily streamflow records for water years 1950–2010 in the Susitna River Basin range in length from 4 to 57 years, and many are distributed within that period in a way that might not adequately represent long-term streamflow conditions. Streamflow in the basin is affected by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a multi-decadal climate pattern that shifted from a cool phase to a warm phase in 1976. Records for many streamgages in the basin fell mostly within one phase of the PDO, such that monthly and annual statistics from observed records might not reflect streamflow conditions over a longer period. Correlations between daily discharge values sufficed for extending streamflow records at 11 of the 14 streamgages in the basin on the basis of relatively long-term records for one or more of the streamgages within the basin, or one outside the basin, that were defined as index stations. Streamflow at the index stations was hydrologically responsive to glacier melt and snowmelt, and correlated well with flow from similar high-elevation, glaciated basins, but flow in low-elevation basins without glaciers could not be correlated to flow at any of the index stations. Kendall-Theil Robust Line multi-segment regression equations developed for one or more index stations were used to extend daily discharge values to the full 61-year period for all 11 streamgages. Monthly and annual statistics prepared for the extended records show shifts in timing of breakup and freeze-up and magnitude of snowmelt peaks largely predicted by the PDO phase.

Winter streamflow analysis in frozen, alpine catchments to quantify groundwater contribution and properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoelzle, Michael; Weiler, Markus

2016-04-01

Alpine catchments are often considered as quickly responding systems where streamflow contributions from subsurface storages (groundwater) are mostly negligible due to the steep topography, low permeable bedrock and the absence of well-developed soils. Many studies in high altitude catchments have hence focused on water stored in snowpack and glaciers or on rainfall-runoff processes as the dominant streamflow contributions. Interestingly less effort has been devoted to winter streamflow analysis when melt- or rainfall-driven contributions are switched off due to the frozen state of the catchment. Considering projected changes in the alpine cryosphere (e.g. snow, glacier, permafrost) quantification of groundwater storage and contribution to streamflow is crucial to assess the social and ecological implications for downstream areas (e.g. water temperature, drought propagation). In this study we hypothesize that groundwater is the main streamflow contribution during winter and thus being responsible for the perennial regime of many alpine catchments. The hypothesis is investigated with well-known methods based on recession and breakpoint analysis of the streamflow regimes and temperature data to determine frozen periods. Analyzing nine catchments in Switzerland with mean elevation between 1000 and 2400 m asl, we found that above a mean elevation of 1800 m asl winter recessions are sufficient long and persistent enough to quantify groundwater contribution to streamflow and to characterize the properties of subsurface storage. The results show that groundwater in alpine catchment is the dominant streamflow contribution for nearly half a year and accountable for several hundred millimeter of annual streamflow. In sub-alpine catchments, driven by a mix of snowmelt and rainfall, a clear quantification of groundwater contributions is rather challenging due to discontinuous frozen periods in winter. We found that the inter-annual variability of different streamflow contributions is helpful to assess the water sustainability of alpine catchments functioning as water towers for downstream water basins. We outline how well-known hydrograph and recession analyses in alpine catchments can help to explore the role of catchment storage and to advance our understanding of (ground-)water management in alpine environments.

Interaction between stream temperature, streamflow, and groundwater exchanges in alpine streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James E.

1998-01-01

Four alpine streams were monitored to continuously collect stream temperature and streamflow for periods ranging from a week to a year. In a small stream in the Colorado Rockies, diurnal variations in both stream temperature and streamflow were significantly greater in losing reaches than in gaining reaches, with minimum streamflow losses occurring early in the day and maximum losses occurring early in the evening. Using measured stream temperature changes, diurnal streambed infiltration rates were predicted to increase as much as 35% during the day (based on a heat and water transport groundwater model), while the measured increase in streamflow loss was 40%. For two large streams in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, annual stream temperature variations ranged from 0° to 25°C. In summer months, diurnal stream temperature variations were 30–40% of annual stream temperature variations, owing to reduced streamflows and increased atmospheric heating. Previous reports document that one Sierra stream site generally gains groundwater during low flows, while the second Sierra stream site may lose water during low flows. For August the diurnal streamflow variation was 11% at the gaining stream site and 30% at the losing stream site. On the basis of measured diurnal stream temperature variations, streambed infiltration rates were predicted to vary diurnally as much as 20% at the losing stream site. Analysis of results suggests that evapotranspiration losses determined diurnal streamflow variations in the gaining reaches, while in the losing reaches, evapotranspiration losses were compounded by diurnal variations in streambed infiltration. Diurnal variations in stream temperature were reduced in the gaining reaches as a result of discharging groundwater of relatively constant temperature. For the Sierra sites, comparison of results with those from a small tributary demonstrated that stream temperature patterns were useful in delineating discharges of bank storage following dam releases. Direct coupling may have occurred between streamflow and stream temperature for losing stream reaches, such that reduced streamflows facilitated increased afternoon stream temperatures and increased afternoon stream temperatures induced increased streambed losses, leading to even greater increases in both stream temperature and streamflow losses.

Water resources data for California, water year 1995. Volume 1. Southern Great Basin from Mexican border to Mono Lake basin, and Pacific slope basins from Tijuana River to Santa Maria River. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1994-30 SeptembeR 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agajanian, J.A.; Rockwell, G.L.; Hayes, P.D.

1996-04-01

Volume 1 contains (1) discharge records for 141 streamflow-gaging stations, 6 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; (2) stage and contents records for 20 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water quality records for 21 streamflow-gaging stations and 3 partial-record stations; and (4) precipitation records for 1 station.

Use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating hydrology and water quality in the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, 2000--10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hutchinson, Kasey J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and nitrate loads within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa. The goal was to assess the ability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to estimate streamflow and nitrate loads in gaged and ungaged basins in Iowa. The Cedar River Basin model uses measured streamflow data from 12 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations for hydrology calibration. The U.S. Geological Survey software program, Load Estimator, was used to estimate annual and monthly nitrate loads based on measured nitrate concentrations and streamflow data from three Iowa Department of Natural Resources Storage and Retrieval/Water Quality Exchange stations, located throughout the basin, for nitrate load calibration. The hydrology of the model was calibrated for the period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and validated for the period of January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010. Simulated daily, monthly, and annual streamflow resulted in Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency (ENS) values ranging from 0.44 to 0.83, 0.72 to 0.93, and 0.56 to 0.97, respectively, and coefficient of determination (R2) values ranging from 0.55 to 0.87, 0.74 to 0.94, and 0.65 to 0.99, respectively, for the calibration period. The percent bias ranged from -19 to 10, -16 to 10, and -19 to 10 for daily, monthly, and annual simulation, respectively. The validation period resulted in daily, monthly, and annual ENS values ranging from 0.49 to 0.77, 0.69 to 0.91, and -0.22 to 0.95, respectively; R2 values ranging from 0.59 to 0.84, 0.74 to 0.92, and 0.36 to 0.92, respectively; and percent bias ranging from -16 for all time steps to percent bias of 14, 15, and 15, respectively. The nitrate calibration was based on a small subset of the locations used in the hydrology calibration with limited measured data. Model performance ranges from unsatisfactory to very good for the calibration period (January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004). Results for the validation period (January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010) indicate a need for an increase of measured data as well as more refined documented management practices at a higher resolution. Simulated nitrate loads resulted in monthly and annual ENS values ranging from 0.28 to 0.82 and 0.61 to 0.86, respectively, and monthly and annual R2 values ranging from 0.65 to 0.81 and 0.65 to 0.88, respectively, for the calibration period. The monthly and annual calibration percent bias ranged from 4 to 7 and 5 to 7, respectively. The validation period resulted in all but two ENS values less than zero. Monthly and annual validation R2 values ranged from 0.5 to 0.67 and 0.25 to 0.48, respectively. Monthly and annual validation percent bias ranged from 46 to 68 for both time steps. A daily calibration and validation for nitrate loads was not performed because of the poor monthly and annual results; measured daily nitrate data are available for intervals of time in 2009 and 2010 during which a successful monthly and annual calibration could not be achieved. The Cedar River Basin is densely gaged relative to other basins in Iowa; therefore, an alternative hydrology scenario was created to assess the predictive capabilities of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool using fewer locations of measured data for model hydrology calibration. Although the ability of the model to reproduce measured values improves with the number of calibration locations, results indicate that the Soil and Water Assessment Tool can be used to adequately estimate streamflow in less densely gaged basins throughout the State, especially at the monthly time step. However, results also indicate that caution should be used when calibrating a subbasin that consists of physically distinct regions based on only one streamflow-gaging station.

Streamflow trends in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Slack, J.R.

1999-01-01

Secular trends in streamflow are evaluated for 395 climate-sensitive streamgaging stations in the conterminous United States using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Trends are calculated for selected quantiles of discharge, from the 0th to the 100th percentile, to evaluate differences between low-, medium-, and high-flow regimes during the twentieth century. Two general patterns emerge; trends are most prevalent in the annual minimum (Q0) to median (Q50) flow categories and least prevalent in the annual maximum (Q100) category; and, at all but the highest quantiles, streamflow has increased across broad sections of the United States. Decreases appear only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Systematic patterns are less apparent in the Q100 flow. Hydrologically, these results indicate that the conterminous U.S. is getting wetter, but less extreme.

Streamflow from the United States into the Atlantic Ocean during 1931-1960

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bue, Conrad D.

1970-01-01

Streamflow from the United States into the Atlantic Ocean, between the international stream St. Croix River, inclusive, and Cape Sable, Fla., averaged about 355,000 cfs (cubic feet per second) during the 30-year period 1931-60, or roughly 20 percent of the water that, on the average flows out of the conterminous United States. The area drained by streams flowing into the Atlantic Ocean is about 288,000 square miles, including the Canadian part of the St. Croix and Connecticut River basins, or a little less than 10 percent of the area of the conterminous United States. Hence, the average streamflow into the Atlantic Ocean, in terms of cubic feet per second per square mile, is about twice the national average of the flow that leaves the conterminous United States. Flow from about three-fourths of the area draining into the Atlantic Ocean is gaged at streamflow measuring stations of the U.S. Geological Survey. The remaining one-fourth of the drainage area consists mostly of low-lying coastal areas from which the flow was estimated, largely on the basis of nearby gaging stations. Streamflow, in terms of cubic feet per second per square mile, decreases rather progressively from north to south. It averages nearly 2 cfs along the Maine coast, about 1 cfs along the North Carolina coast, and about 0.9 cfs along the Florida coast.

Methods for determining magnitude and frequency of floods in California, based on data through water year 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Parrett, Charles

2012-01-01

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in California that are not substantially affected by regulation or diversions have been updated. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2006 were analyzed for 771 streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) in California having 10 or more years of data. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the flood-frequency analysis, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low outliers. Special methods for fitting the distribution were developed for streamgages in the desert region in southeastern California. Additionally, basin characteristics for the streamgages were computed by using a geographical information system. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins in California that are outside of the southeastern desert region. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 630 streamgages were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. Five hydrologic regions were developed for the area of California outside of the desert region. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area and mean annual precipitation for four of the five regions. In one region, the Sierra Nevada region, the final equations are functions of drainage area, mean basin elevation, and mean annual precipitation. Average standard errors of prediction for the regression equations in all five regions range from 42.7 to 161.9 percent. For the desert region of California, an analysis of 33 streamgages was used to develop regional estimates of all three parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skew) of the log-Pearson Type III distribution. The regional estimates were then used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area. Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 214.2 to 856.2 percent. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2006 were analyzed for eight streamgages in California having 10 or more years of data considered to be affected by urbanization. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the urban streamgages by fitting a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage. Regression analysis could not be used to develop flood-frequency estimation equations for urban streams because of the limited number of sites. Flood-frequency estimates for the eight urban sites were graphically compared to flood-frequency estimates for 630 non-urban sites. The regression equations developed from this study will be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a Web-based application that provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for USGS streamgages and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats can also compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in California.

Response of non-point source pollutant loads to climate change in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment.

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Lu, Wenxi; An, Yonglei; Li, Di; Gong, Lei

2012-01-01

The impacts of climate change on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment are predicted by combining a general circulation model (HadCM3) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A statistical downscaling model was used to generate future local scenarios of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. Then, the downscaled meteorological variables were used as input to the SWAT hydrological model calibrated and validated with observations, and the corresponding changes of future streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment were simulated and analyzed. Results show that daily temperature increases in three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) relative to a baseline of 1961-1990, and the rate of increase is 0.63°C per decade. Annual precipitation also shows an apparent increase of 11 mm per decade. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate well the streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads, with a coefficient of determination of 0.7 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of about 0.7 for both the calibration and validation periods. The future climate change has a significant impact on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads. The annual streamflow shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2099, with an increase rate of 1.1 m(3) s(-1) per decade, and a significant upward trend in summer, with an increase rate of 1.32 m(3) s(-1) per decade. The increase in summer contributes the most to the increase of annual load compared with other seasons. The annual NH (4) (+) -N load into Shitoukoumen reservoir shows a significant downward trend with a decrease rate of 40.6 t per decade. The annual TP load shows an insignificant increasing trend, and its change rate is 3.77 t per decade. The results of this analysis provide a scientific basis for effective support of decision makers and strategies of adaptation to climate change.

Application of AFINCH as a tool for evaluating the effects of streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the southeast Lake Michigan hydrologic subregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Holtschlag, David J.

2010-01-01

Bootstrapping techniques employing random subsampling were used with the AFINCH (Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels) model to gain insights into the effects of variation in streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the 0405 (Southeast Lake Michigan) hydrologic subregion. AFINCH uses stepwise-regression techniques to estimate monthly water yields from catchments based on geospatial-climate and land-cover data in combination with available streamflow and water-use data. Calculations are performed on a hydrologic-subregion scale for each catchment and stream reach contained in a National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) subregion. Water yields from contributing catchments are multiplied by catchment areas and resulting flow values are accumulated to compute streamflows in stream reaches which are referred to as flow lines. AFINCH imposes constraints on water yields to ensure that observed streamflows are conserved at gaged locations.  Data from the 0405 hydrologic subregion (referred to as Southeast Lake Michigan) were used for the analyses. Daily streamflow data were measured in the subregion for 1 or more years at a total of 75 streamflow-gaging stations during the analysis period which spanned water years 1971–2003. The number of streamflow gages in operation each year during the analysis period ranged from 42 to 56 and averaged 47. Six sets (one set for each censoring level), each composed of 30 random subsets of the 75 streamflow gages, were created by censoring (removing) approximately 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 75 percent of the streamflow gages (the actual percentage of operating streamflow gages censored for each set varied from year to year, and within the year from subset to subset, but averaged approximately the indicated percentages).Streamflow estimates for six flow lines each were aggregated by censoring level, and results were analyzed to assess (a) how the size and composition of the streamflow-gaging network affected the average apparent errors and variability of the estimated flows and (b) whether results for certain months were more variable than for others. The six flow lines were categorized into one of three types depending upon their network topology and position relative to operating streamflow-gaging stations.    Statistical analysis of the model results indicates that (1) less precise (that is, more variable) estimates resulted from smaller streamflow-gaging networks as compared to larger streamflow-gaging networks, (2) precision of AFINCH flow estimates at an ungaged flow line is improved by operation of one or more streamflow gages upstream and (or) downstream in the enclosing basin, (3) no consistent seasonal trend in estimate variability was evident, and (4) flow lines from ungaged basins appeared to exhibit the smallest absolute apparent percent errors (APEs) and smallest changes in average APE as a function of increasing censoring level. The counterintuitive results described in item (4) above likely reflect both the nature of the base-streamflow estimate from which the errors were computed and insensitivity in the average model-derived estimates to changes in the streamflow-gaging-network size and composition. Another analysis demonstrated that errors for flow lines in ungaged basins have the potential to be much larger than indicated by their APEs if measured relative to their true (but unknown) flows.     “Missing gage” analyses, based on examination of censoring subset results where the streamflow gage of interest was omitted from the calibration data set, were done to better understand the true error characteristics for ungaged flow lines as a function of network size. Results examined for 2 water years indicated that the probability of computing a monthly streamflow estimate within 10 percent of the true value with AFINCH decreased from greater than 0.9 at about a 10-percent network-censoring level to less than 0.6 as the censoring level approached 75 percent. In addition, estimates for typically dry months tended to be characterized by larger percent errors than typically wetter months.

Streamflow and water-quality trends of the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, northern and central New Mexico, water years 1985 to 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langman, Jeff B.; Nolan, Emma O.

2005-01-01

The City of Albuquerque plans to divert San Juan-Chama Project water from the Rio Grande for potable water use. This report examines streamflow and water-quality trends in the Rio Chama and the Rio Grande for water years 1985 to 2002 following the implementation of reservoir storage agreements in northern and central New Mexico. Streamflow/water-quality stations used for this study include the Rio Grande stations of Taos, Otowi, San Felipe, and Albuquerque and the Rio Chama station of Chamita. Water years 1985 to 2002 were a period of larger than average precipitation and streamflow compared to the stations. historical averages. Annual precipitation and streamflow trended downward during the study period because of a drought during 1999 to 2002. Streamflow in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande was divided into three distinct seasonal periods that corresponded to natural and anthropogenic influences: fall/winter baseflow (November through February), snowmelt runoff (March through June), and the irrigation/monsoon (July through October) seasons. A calcium bicarbonate water type was evident at all study area stations on the Rio Chama and Rio Grande. Specific conductance increased downstream, but alkalinity and pH did not substantially change in the downstream direction. Nearly all nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were less than 1 milligram per liter for all stations. Median trace-element concentrations and maximum radionuclide concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Anthropogenic compounds were infrequently detected in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, and concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Water quality in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande varied spatially and temporally during water years 1985 to 2002. Specific conductance increased downstream in the Rio Grande during the fall/winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff seasons but was similar at the Taos, Otowi, and San Felipe stations during the irrigation/monsoon season. This similarity was a result of the release of stored water from Abiquiu Reservoir and Cochiti Lake, which masked the natural influences that increased specific conductance in the downstream direction during the other seasons. During all seasons, pH decreased and major ion concentrations remained stable at the Albuquerque station compared with the San Felipe station, but no single influence could be identified that caused these conditions. Manganese and uranium concentrations at the Otowi and San Felipe stations were largest during the fall/winter baseflow and smallest during the snowmelt runoff, indicating that ground-water inflows likely influenced these concentrations. Water-quality temporal trends were evaluated for selected constituents during the study period and during the individual seasons. Downward trends in major ion concentrations were similar in magnitude at the Taos and Otowi stations, indicating that an upstream influence and (or) the downward trend in annual precipitation was the main reason(s) for these trends. The stations most affected by reservoirs, Chamita and San Felipe, were the only stations at which downward trends in major ions were apparent for flow-adjusted concentrations but not for seasonally correlated low-adjusted concentrations, which indicates fewer seasonal differences at these stations due to reservoir operations.

Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Widespread decreases in annualized streamflow have been observed across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years, however in some watersheds, observed streamflow has increased. To deconvolve the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long-term ...

Shallow and Deep Groundwater Contributions to Ephemeral Streamflow Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmer, M. A.; McGlynn, B. L.

2016-12-01

Our understanding of streamflow generation processes in low relief, humid landscapes is limited. To address this, we utilized an ephemeral-to-intermittent drainage network in the Piedmont region of the United States to gain new understanding about the drivers of ephemeral streamflow generation, stream-groundwater interactions, and longitudinal expansion and contraction of the stream network. We used hydrometric and chemical data collected within zero through second order catchments to characterize streamflow and overland, shallow soil, and deep subsurface flow across landscape positions. Results showed bi-directionality in stream-groundwater gradients that were dependent on catchment storage state. This led to annual groundwater recharge magnitudes that were similar to annual streamflow. Perched shallow and deep water table contributions shifted dominance with changes in catchment storage state, producing distinct stream hydrograph recession constants. Active channel length versus runoff followed a consistent relationship independent of storage state, but exhibited varying discharge-solute hysteresis directions. Together, our results suggest that temporary streams can act as both important groundwater recharge and discharge locations across the landscape, especially in this region where ephemeral drainage densities are among the highest recorded. Our results also highlight that the internal catchment dynamics that generate temporary streams play an important role in dictating biogeochemical fluxes at the landscape scale.

Responses of streamflow and sediment load to climate change and human activity in the Upper Yellow River, China: a case of the Ten Great Gullies Basin.

PubMed

Liu, Tong; Huang, He Qing; Shao, Mingan; Yao, Wenyi; Gu, Jing; Yu, Guoan

2015-01-01

Soil erosion and land desertification are the most serious environmental problems globally. This study investigated the changes in streamflow and sediment load from 1964 to 2012 in the Ten Great Gullies area of the Upper Yellow River. Tests for gradual trends (Mann-Kendall test) and abrupt changes (Pettitt test) identify that significant declines in streamflow and sediment load occurred in 1997-1998 in two typical gullies. A comparison of climatic variability before and after the change points shows no statistically significant trends in annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Human activities have been very active in the region and during 1990-2010, 146.01 and 197.62 km2 of land were converted, respectively, to forests and grassland, with corresponding increases of 87.56 and 77.05%. In addition, a large number of check dams have been built up in the upper reaches of the ten gullies. These measures were likely responsible for the significant decline in the annual streamflow and sediment load over the last 49 years.

Techniques for estimating selected streamflow characteristics of rural unregulated streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Whitehead, Matthew T.

2002-01-01

This report provides equations for estimating mean annual streamflow, mean monthly streamflows, harmonic mean streamflow, and streamflow quartiles (the 25th-, 50th-, and 75th-percentile streamflows) as a function of selected basin characteristics for rural, unregulated streams in Ohio. The equations were developed from streamflow statistics and basin-characteristics data for as many as 219 active or discontinued streamflow-gaging stations on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio with 10 or more years of homogenous daily streamflow record. Streamflow statistics and basin-characteristics data for the 219 stations are presented in this report. Simple equations (based on drainage area only) and best-fit equations (based on drainage area and at least two other basin characteristics) were developed by means of ordinary least-squares regression techniques. Application of the best-fit equations generally involves quantification of basin characteristics that require or are facilitated by use of a geographic information system. In contrast, the simple equations can be used with information that can be obtained without use of a geographic information system; however, the simple equations have larger prediction errors than the best-fit equations and exhibit geographic biases for most streamflow statistics. The best-fit equations should be used instead of the simple equations whenever possible.

Low-flow analysis and selected flow statistics representative of 1930-2002 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.

2006-01-01

Five time periods between 1930 and 2002 are identified as having distinct patterns of annual minimum daily mean flows (minimum flows). Average minimum flows increased around 1970 at many streamflow-gaging stations in West Virginia. Before 1930, however, there might have been a period of minimum flows greater than any period identified between 1930 and 2002. The effects of climate variability are probably the principal causes of the differences among the five time periods. Comparisons of selected streamflow statistics are made between values computed for the five identified time periods and values computed for the 1930-2002 interval for 15 streamflow-gaging stations. The average difference between statistics computed for the five time periods and the 1930-2002 interval decreases with increasing magnitude of the low-flow statistic. The greatest individual-station absolute difference was 582.5 percent greater for the 7-day 10-year low flow computed for 1970-1979 compared to the value computed for 1930-2002. The hydrologically based low flows indicate approximately equal or smaller absolute differences than biologically based low flows. The average 1-day 3-year biologically based low flow (1B3) and 4-day 3-year biologically based low flow (4B3) are less than the average 1-day 10-year hydrologically based low flow (1Q10) and 7-day 10-year hydrologic-based low flow (7Q10) respectively, and range between 28.5 percent less and 13.6 percent greater. Seasonally, the average difference between low-flow statistics computed for the five time periods and 1930-2002 is not consistent between magnitudes of low-flow statistics, and the greatest difference is for the summer (July 1-September 30) and fall (October 1-December 31) for the same time period as the greatest difference determined in the annual analysis. The greatest average difference between 1B3 and 4B3 compared to 1Q10 and 7Q10, respectively, is in the spring (April 1-June 30), ranging between 11.6 and 102.3 percent greater. Statistics computed for the individual station's record period may not represent the statistics computed for the period 1930 to 2002 because (1) station records are available predominantly after about 1970 when minimum flows were greater than the average between 1930 and 2002 and (2) some short-term station records are mostly during dry periods, whereas others are mostly during wet periods. A criterion-based sampling of the individual station's record periods at stations was taken to reduce the effects of statistics computed for the entire record periods not representing the statistics computed for 1930-2002. The criterion used to sample the entire record periods is based on a comparison between the regional minimum flows and the minimum flows at the stations. Criterion-based sampling of the available record periods was superior to record-extension techniques for this study because more stations were selected and areal distribution of stations was more widespread. Principal component and correlation analyses of the minimum flows at 20 stations in or near West Virginia identify three regions of the State encompassing stations with similar patterns of minimum flows: the Lower Appalachian Plateaus, the Upper Appalachian Plateaus, and the Eastern Panhandle. All record periods of 10 years or greater between 1930 and 2002 where the average of the regional minimum flows are nearly equal to the average for 1930-2002 are determined as representative of 1930-2002. Selected statistics are presented for the longest representative record period that matches the record period for 77 stations in West Virginia and 40 stations near West Virginia. These statistics can be used to develop equations for estimating flow in ungaged stream locations.

Quantifying the relative contribution of climate and human impacts on streamflow at seasonal scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Z.; Zhang, L.; Li, Y.; Zhang, C.

2017-12-01

Both climate change and human activities have induced changes to hydrology. The quantification of their impacts on streamflow is a challenge, especially at the seasonal scale due to seasonality of climate and human impacts, i.e., water use for irrigation and water storage and release due to reservoir operation. In this study, the decomposition method based on the Budyko hypothesis is extended to the seasonal scale and is used to quantify the climate and human impacts on annual and seasonal streamflow changes. The results are further compared and verified with those simulated by the hydrological method of abcd model. Data are split into two periods (1953-1974 and 1975-2005) to quantify the change. Three seasons, including wet, dry and irrigation seasons are defined by introducing the monthly aridity index. In general, results showed a satisfactory agreement between the Budyko decomposition method and abcd model. Both climate change and human activities were found to induce a decrease in streamflow at the annual scale, with 67% of the change contributed by human activities. At the seasonal scale, the human-induced contribution to the reduced stream flow was 64% and 73% for dry and wet seasons, respectively; whereas in the irrigation season, the impact of human activities on reducing the streamflow was more pronounced (180%) since the climate contributes to increased streamflow. In addition, the quantification results were analyzed for each month in the wet season to reveal the effects of intense precipitation and reservoir operation rules during flood season.

Flooding in the southern Midwestern United States, April–May 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heimann, David C.; Holmes, Robert R.; Harris, Thomas E.

2018-03-09

Excessive rainfall resulted in flooding on numerous rivers throughout the southern Midwestern United States (southern Midwest) in late April and early May of 2017. The heaviest rainfall, between April 28 and 30, resulted in extensive flooding from eastern Oklahoma to southern Indiana including parts of Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois.Peak-of-record streamflows were set at 21 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the southern Midwest during the resulting April–May 2017 flooding and each of the five States included in the study area had at least one streamgage with a peak of record during the flood. The annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimates for the April–May 2017 peak streamflows indicate that peaks at 5 USGS streamgages had AEPs of 0.2 percent or less (500-year recurrence interval or greater), and peak streamflows at 15 USGS streamgages had AEPs in the range from greater than 0.2 to 1 percent (500- to 100-year recurrence intervals).Examination of the magnitude of the temporal changes in median annual peak streamflows indicated positive increases, in general, throughout the study area for each of the 1930–2017, 1956–2017, 1975–2017, and 1989–2017 analysis periods. The median increase in peak streamflows was greatest in 1975–2017 and 1989–2017 with maximum increases of 8 to 10 percent per year. No stations in the 1975–2017 or 1989–2017 analysis period had median negative changes in peak streamflows.

Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Jin, Jiming

2017-11-01

Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs) at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i) spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii) temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii) reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011-2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 increased by 1.25 ± 0.55. Streamflow variability was predicted to become greater over most months on the seasonal scale because of the increased monthly maximum streamflow and decreased monthly minimum streamflow. The increase in streamflow variability was attributed mainly to larger positive contributions from increased precipitation variances rather than negative contributions from increased mean temperatures.

Measuring real-time streamflow using emerging technologies: Radar, hydroacoustics, and the probability concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, John; Ostrowski, Joseph

2008-07-01

SummaryForecasting streamflow during extreme hydrologic events such as floods can be problematic. This is particularly true when flow is unsteady, and river forecasts rely on models that require uniform-flow rating curves to route water from one forecast point to another. As a result, alternative methods for measuring streamflow are needed to properly route flood waves and account for inertial and pressure forces in natural channels dominated by nonuniform-flow conditions such as mild water surface slopes, backwater, tributary inflows, and reservoir operations. The objective of the demonstration was to use emerging technologies to measure instantaneous streamflow in open channels at two existing US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. Surface-water and instream-point velocities were measured using hand-held radar and hydroacoustics. Streamflow was computed using the probability concept, which requires velocity data from a single vertical containing the maximum instream velocity. The percent difference in streamflow at the Susquehanna River at Bloomsburg, PA ranged from 0% to 8% with an average difference of 4% and standard deviation of 8.81 m 3/s. The percent difference in streamflow at Chartiers Creek at Carnegie, PA ranged from 0% to 11% with an average difference of 5% and standard deviation of 0.28 m 3/s. New generation equipment is being tested and developed to advance the use of radar-derived surface-water velocity and instantaneous streamflow to facilitate the collection and transmission of real-time streamflow that can be used to parameterize hydraulic routing models.

Measuring real-time streamflow using emerging technologies: Radar, hydroacoustics, and the probability concept

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, J.; Ostrowski, J.

2008-01-01

Forecasting streamflow during extreme hydrologic events such as floods can be problematic. This is particularly true when flow is unsteady, and river forecasts rely on models that require uniform-flow rating curves to route water from one forecast point to another. As a result, alternative methods for measuring streamflow are needed to properly route flood waves and account for inertial and pressure forces in natural channels dominated by nonuniform-flow conditions such as mild water surface slopes, backwater, tributary inflows, and reservoir operations. The objective of the demonstration was to use emerging technologies to measure instantaneous streamflow in open channels at two existing US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. Surface-water and instream-point velocities were measured using hand-held radar and hydroacoustics. Streamflow was computed using the probability concept, which requires velocity data from a single vertical containing the maximum instream velocity. The percent difference in streamflow at the Susquehanna River at Bloomsburg, PA ranged from 0% to 8% with an average difference of 4% and standard deviation of 8.81 m3/s. The percent difference in streamflow at Chartiers Creek at Carnegie, PA ranged from 0% to 11% with an average difference of 5% and standard deviation of 0.28 m3/s. New generation equipment is being tested and developed to advance the use of radar-derived surface-water velocity and instantaneous streamflow to facilitate the collection and transmission of real-time streamflow that can be used to parameterize hydraulic routing models.

Estimating current and future streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites, central and eastern Montana, with application to evaluating effects of climate change on fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Chase, Katherine J.

2017-03-23

A common statistical procedure for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged locations is to develop a relational model between streamflow and drainage basin characteristics at gaged locations using least squares regression analysis; however, least squares regression methods are parametric and make constraining assumptions about the data distribution. The random forest regression method provides an alternative nonparametric method for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites and requires that the data meet fewer statistical conditions than least squares regression methods.Random forest regression analysis was used to develop predictive models for 89 streamflow characteristics using Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulated streamflow data and drainage basin characteristics at 179 sites in central and eastern Montana. The predictive models were developed from streamflow data simulated for current (baseline, water years 1982–99) conditions and three future periods (water years 2021–38, 2046–63, and 2071–88) under three different climate-change scenarios. These predictive models were then used to predict streamflow characteristics for baseline conditions and three future periods at 1,707 fish sampling sites in central and eastern Montana. The average root mean square error for all predictive models was about 50 percent. When streamflow predictions at 23 fish sampling sites were compared to nearby locations with simulated data, the mean relative percent difference was about 43 percent. When predictions were compared to streamflow data recorded at 21 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations outside of the calibration basins, the average mean absolute percent error was about 73 percent.

ModABa Model: Annual Flow Duration Curves Assessment in Ephemeral Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pumo, Dario; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

2013-04-01

A representation of the streamflow regime for a river basin is required for a variety of hydrological analyses and engineering applications, from the water resource allocation and utilization to the environmental flow management. The flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. Several models aimed to the theoretical reconstruction of the FDC have been recently developed under different approaches, and a relevant scientific knowledge specific to this topic has been already acquired. In this work, a new model for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in perennial and ephemeral catchments is introduced. The ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in intermittent BAsins) can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different recent studies. Such tesserae are harmoniously placed and interconnected, concurring together towards a unique final aim that is the reproduction of the FDC of daily streamflows in a river basin. Two separated periods within the year are firstly identified: a non-zero period, typically characterized by significant streamflows, and a dry period, that, in the cases of ephemeral basins, is the period typically characterized by absence of streamflow. The proportion of time the river is dry, providing an estimation of the probability of zero flow occurring, is empirically estimated. Then, an analysis concerning the non-zero period is performed, considering the streamflow disaggregated into a slow subsuperficial component and a fast superficial component. A recent analytical model is adopted to derive the non zero FDC relative to the subsuperficial component; this last is considered to be generated by the soil water excess over the field capacity in the permeable portion of the basin. The non zero FDC relative to the fast streamflow component is directly derived from the precipitation duration curve through a simple filter model. The fast component of streamflow is considered to be formed by two contributions that are the entire amount of rainfall falling onto the impervious portion of the basin and the excess of rainfall over a fixed threshold, defining heavy rain events, falling onto the permeable portion. The two obtained FDCs are then overlapped, providing a unique non-zero FDC relative to the total streamflow. Finally, once the probability that the river is dry and the non zero FDC are known, the annual FDC of the daily total streamflow is derived applying the theory of total probability. The model is calibrated on a small catchment with ephemeral streamflows using a long period of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow measurements, and it is successively validated in the same basin using two different time periods. The high model performances obtained in both the validation periods, demonstrate how the model, once calibrated, is able to accurately reproduce the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from a basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. In this sense, the model reveals itself as a valid tool for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins.

Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

PubMed

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

2015-12-04

Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

Understanding performance measures of reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, Thomas A.; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Zhou, Sen-Lin

2006-06-01

This paper examines 10 reservoir performance metrics including time and volume based reliability, several measures of resilience and vulnerability, drought risk index and sustainability. Both historical and stochastically generated streamflows are considered as inflows to a range of hypothetical storage on four rivers—Earn river in the United Kingdom, Hatchie river in the United States, Richmond river in Australia and the Vis river in South Africa. The monthly stochastic sequences were generated applying an autoregressive lag one model to Box-Cox transformed annual streamflows incorporating parameter uncertainty by the Stedinger-Taylor method and the annual flows disaggregated by the method of fragments.

Estimated Loads of Suspended Sediment and Selected Trace Elements Transported through the Milltown Reservoir Project Area Before and After the Breaching of Milltown Dam in the Upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, Water Year 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambing, John H.; Sando, Steven K.

2009-01-01

This report presents estimated daily and cumulative loads of suspended sediment and selected trace elements transported during water year 2008 at three streamflow-gaging stations that bracket the Milltown Reservoir project area in the upper Clark Fork basin of western Montana. Milltown Reservoir is a National Priorities List Superfund site where sediments enriched in trace elements from historical mining and ore processing have been deposited since the construction of Milltown Dam in 1907. Milltown Dam was breached on March 28, 2008, as part of Superfund remedial activities to remove the dam and contaminated sediment that had accumulated in Milltown Reservoir. The estimated loads transported through the project area during the periods before and after the breaching of Milltown Dam, and for the entire water year 2008, were used to quantify the net gain or loss (mass balance) of suspended sediment and trace elements within the project area during the transition from a reservoir environment to a free-flowing river. This study was done in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Streamflow during water year 2008 compared to long-term streamflow, as represented by the record for Clark Fork above Missoula (water years 1930-2008), generally was below normal (long-term median) from about October 2007 through April 2008. Sustained runoff started in mid-April, which increased flows to near normal by mid-May. After mid-May, flows sharply increased to above normal, reaching a maximum daily mean streamflow of 16,800 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) on May 21, which essentially equaled the long-term 10th-exceedance percentile for that date. Flows substantially above normal were sustained through June, then decreased through the summer and reached near-normal by August. Annual mean streamflow during water year 2008 (3,040 ft3/s) was 105 percent of the long-term mean annual streamflow (2,900 ft3/s). The annual peak flow (17,500 ft3/s) occurred on May 21 and was 112 percent of the long-term mean annual peak flow (15,600 ft3/s). About 81 percent of the annual flow volume was discharged during the post-breach period. Daily loads of suspended sediment were estimated directly by using high-frequency sampling of the daily sediment monitoring. Daily loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc were estimated by using regression equations relating trace-element discharge to either streamflow or suspended-sediment discharge. Regression equations for estimating trace-element discharge in water year 2008 were developed from instantaneous streamflow and concentration data for periodic water-quality samples collected during all or part of water years 2004-08. The equations were applied to records of daily mean streamflow or daily suspended-sediment loads to produce estimated daily trace-element loads. Variations in daily suspended-sediment and trace-element loads generally coincided with variations in streamflow. Relatively small to moderately large daily net losses from the project area were common during the pre-breach period when low-flow conditions were prevalent. Outflow loads from the project area sharply increased immediately after the breaching of Milltown Dam and during the rising limb and peak flow of the annual hydrograph. Net losses of suspended sediment and trace elements from the project area decreased as streamflow decreased during the summer, eventually becoming small or reaching an approximate net balance between inflow and outflow. Estimated daily loads of suspended sediment and trace elements for all three stations were summed to determine cumulative inflow and outflow loads for the pre-breach and post-breach periods, as well as for the entire water year 2008. Overall, the mass balance between the combined inflow loads from two upstream source areas (upper Clark Fork and Blackfoot River basins) and the outflow loads at Clark Fork above Missoula indicates net losses

Hydrology of the Johnson Creek Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Karl K.; Snyder, Daniel T.

2009-01-01

The Johnson Creek basin is an important resource in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. Johnson Creek forms a wildlife and recreational corridor through densely populated areas of the cities of Milwaukie, Portland, and Gresham, and rural and agricultural areas of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties. The basin has changed as a result of agricultural and urban development, stream channelization, and construction of roads, drains, and other features characteristic of human occupation. Flooding of Johnson Creek is a concern for the public and for water management officials. The interaction of the groundwater and surface-water systems in the Johnson Creek basin also is important. The occurrence of flooding from high groundwater discharge and from a rising water table prompted this study. As the Portland metropolitan area continues to grow, human-induced effects on streams in the Johnson Creek basin will continue. This report provides information on the groundwater and surface-water systems over a range of hydrologic conditions, as well as the interaction these of systems, and will aid in management of water resources in the area. High and low flows of Crystal Springs Creek, a tributary to Johnson Creek, were explained by streamflow and groundwater levels collected for this study, and results from previous studies. High flows of Crystal Springs Creek began in summer 1996, and did not diminish until 2000. Low streamflow of Crystal Springs Creek occurred in 2005. Flow of Crystal Springs Creek related to water-level fluctuations in a nearby well, enabling prediction of streamflow based on groundwater level. Holgate Lake is an ephemeral lake in Southeast Portland that has inundated residential areas several times since the 1940s. The water-surface elevation of the lake closely tracked the elevation of the water table in a nearby well, indicating that the occurrence of the lake is an expression of the water table. Antecedent conditions of the groundwater level and autumn and winter precipitation totals were used to anticipate flooding of Holgate Lake. Several factors affect annual mean flow of Johnson Creek. More precipitation falls in the southeastern area of the basin because of the topographic setting. Runoff from much of the northern and western areas of the basin does not flow into Johnson Creek due to permeable deposits, interception by combined sewer systems, and by groundwater flow away from Johnson Creek. Inflow from Crystal Springs Creek accounts for one-half of the increase in streamflow of Johnson Creek between the Sycamore and Milwaukie sites. Low flows of Johnson Creek vary as a result of fluctuations in groundwater discharge to the creek, although past water uses may have decreased flows. The groundwater contributions to streamflow upstream of river mile (RM) 5.5 are small compared to contributions downstream of this point. Comparison of flows to a nearby basin indicates that diversions of surface water may have resulted in a 50 percent decrease in low flows from about 1955 to 1977. Runoff from the drainage basin area upstream of the Johnson Creek at Sycamore site contributes more to peak streamflow and peak volume than the drainage basin area between the Sycamore and Milwaukie sites. The average increase in annual peak streamflow and annual peak volume between the two sites was 11 and 24 percent, respectively. Decreased contribution in the lower area of the drainage basin is a result of infiltration, interception by drywell and combined sewer systems, and temporary overbank storage. Trends in flow typically associated with increasing urban development were absent in Johnson Creek. Annual, low, and high flows showed no trend from 1941 to 2006. Much of the infrastructure that may affect runoff from agricultural, residential, and urban development was in place prior to collection of hydrologic data in the basin. Management of stormwater in the urban areas by routing runoff from impervious surfaces to dry

June and August median streamflows estimated for ungaged streams in southern Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2010-01-01

Methods for estimating June and August median streamflows were developed for ungaged, unregulated streams in southern Maine. The methods apply to streams with drainage areas ranging in size from 0.4 to 74 square miles, with percentage of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer ranging from 0 to 84 percent, and with distance from the centroid of the basin to a Gulf of Maine line paralleling the coast ranging from 14 to 94 miles. Equations were developed with data from 4 long-term continuous-record streamgage stations and 27 partial-record streamgage stations. Estimates of median streamflows at the continuous-record and partial-record stations are presented. A mathematical technique for estimating standard low-flow statistics, such as June and August median streamflows, at partial-record streamgage stations was applied by relating base-flow measurements at these stations to concurrent daily streamflows at nearby long-term (at least 10 years of record) continuous-record streamgage stations (index stations). Weighted least-squares regression analysis (WLS) was used to relate estimates of June and August median streamflows at streamgage stations to basin characteristics at these same stations to develop equations that can be used to estimate June and August median streamflows on ungaged streams. WLS accounts for different periods of record at the gaging stations. Three basin characteristics-drainage area, percentage of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer, and distance from the centroid of the basin to a Gulf of Maine line paralleling the coast-are used in the final regression equation to estimate June and August median streamflows for ungaged streams. The three-variable equation to estimate June median streamflow has an average standard error of prediction from -35 to 54 percent. The three-variable equation to estimate August median streamflow has an average standard error of prediction from -45 to 83 percent. Simpler one-variable equations that use only drainage area to estimate June and August median streamflows were developed for use when less accuracy is acceptable. These equations have average standard errors of prediction from -46 to 87 percent and from -57 to 133 percent, respectively.

Occurrence and quality of surface water and ground water within the Yavapai-Prescott Indian Reservation, central Arizona, 1994-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littin, Gregory R.; Truini, Margot; Pierce, Herbert A.; Baum, Brad M.

2000-01-01

The Yavapai-Prescott Indian Reservation encompasses about 1,395 acres in central Arizona adjacent to the city of Prescott. From October 1994 to September 1997, the annual average rainfall was 14.9 inches and the total annual streamflow leaving the reservation along Granite Creek was about 430 acre-feet more than the amount of streamflow entering the reservation. The channel-fill and valley-fill sediments within the flood plain of Granite Creek make up the principal aquifer. The only ground-water development is from spring discharge that is being contained for livestock and wildlife use. About 29 acre-feet of ground water leaves the reservation each year after discharging into Granite Creek. Water levels in wells throughout the reservation reflect seasonal variations in rainfall and snowmelt. Surface water and ground water on the reservation are calcium bicarbonate types. Specific-conductance field measurements ranged from 187 to 724 microsiemens per centimeter for surface water and 381 to 990 microsiemens per centimeter for ground water. Fecal streptococcal bacteria and fecal coliform bacteria in the surface water make the water unsuitable for domestic use. Some volatile and semivolatile organic compounds were detected in samples of surface water, ground water, and streambed sediment. The potential for contamination exists from point and nonpoint sources on and off the reservation.

Water for a rapidly growing urban community, Oakland County, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twenter, F.R.; Knutilla, R.L.

1972-01-01

Oakland County, an area of 899 square miles, is in southeastern Michigan. The southern part of the county is overlapped by the suburbs of the city of Detroit. In 1970, about 850,000 people were living in the county and using about 100 million gallons of water a day. More than 80 percent of the water used for large industrial and municipal supplies came from Detroit's water system. The average annual rate of streamflow from the county is about 370 million gallons per day (575 cubic feet per second). Median annual 7-day low flows range from 0 to 0.25 cfs per square mile. Low flows can be augmented by more than 60,000 acre-feet of water captured during high streamflow by construction of small reservoirs at 21 inventoried sites. Glacial deposits and the Marshall Sandstone are the prime sources of ground water. Most wells that penetrate the full thickness of glacial deposits in the northwestern part of the county will yield at least 50 gpm (gallons per minute), and many will yield more than 400 gpm. The Marshall Sandstone, which occurs only in the Holly area, is capable of yielding more than 1,000 gpm. The chemical quality of both surface and ground water is relatively good throughout the county. Only in the southern part of the county is the dissolved solids above the acceptable standard of 500 milligrams per liter.

Estimation of the climate change impact on a catchment water balance using an ensemble of GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reshmidevi, T. V.; Nagesh Kumar, D.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2018-01-01

This work evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of a catchment in India. Rainfall and hydro-meteorological variables for current (20C3M scenario, 1981-2000) and two future time periods: mid of the 21st century (2046-2065) and end of the century (2081-2100) are simulated using Modified Markov Model-Kernel Density Estimation (MMM-KDE) and k-nearest neighbor downscaling models. Climate projections from an ensemble of 5 GCMs (MPI-ECHAM5, BCCR-BCM2.0, CSIRO-mk3.5, IPSL-CM4, and MRI-CGCM2) are used in this study. Hydrologic simulations for the current as well as future climate scenarios are carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with ArcGIS (ArcSWAT v.2009). The results show marginal reduction in runoff ratio, annual streamflow and groundwater recharge towards the end of the century. Increased temperature and evapotranspiration project an increase in the irrigation demand towards the end of the century. Rainfall projections for the future shows marginal increase in the annual average rainfall. Short and moderate wet spells are projected to decrease, whereas short and moderate dry spells are projected to increase in the future. Projected reduction in streamflow and groundwater recharge along with the increase in irrigation demand is likely to aggravate the water stress in the region under the future scenario.

Peak-flow characteristics of Wyoming streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kirk A.

2003-01-01

Peak-flow characteristics for unregulated streams in Wyoming are described in this report. Frequency relations for annual peak flows through water year 2000 at 364 streamflow-gaging stations in and near Wyoming were evaluated and revised or updated as needed. Analyses of historical floods, temporal trends, and generalized skew were included in the evaluation. Physical and climatic basin characteristics were determined for each gaging station using a geographic information system. Gaging stations with similar peak-flow and basin characteristics were grouped into six hydrologic regions. Regional statistical relations between peak-flow and basin characteristics were explored using multiple-regression techniques. Generalized least squares regression equations for estimating magnitudes of annual peak flows with selected recurrence intervals from 1.5 to 500 years were developed for each region. Average standard errors of estimate range from 34 to 131 percent. Average standard errors of prediction range from 35 to 135 percent. Several statistics for evaluating and comparing the errors in these estimates are described. Limitations of the equations are described. Methods for applying the regional equations for various circumstances are listed and examples are given.

Water resources of Kosrae, Caroline Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van der Brug, Otto

1984-01-01

Kosrae is a high volcanic island about 42 square miles in area and the easternmost of the Caroline Islands. Mount Finkol (Mt. Crozer), at 2,065 feet, is the highest point on the island. Mountainous ridges descend sharply to narrow coastal strips which support a population of 5,500 people. Many streams, some quite large relative to the size of the island, drain radially from the interior. The average annual discharge of surface water amounts to almost 7 million gallons per square mile per day. Annual rainfall for coastal areas on Kosrae averages about 200 inches, and is similar to the rainfall for coastal areas on the island of Ponape, about 340 statute miles to the northwest. Rainfall in the interior was estimated at 225 inches per year of which about two thirds runs off as streamflow. Surface-water quality is very good as shown by 42 chemical analyses of water from 12 streams. This report summarizes in one volume the hydrologic data collected and provides interpretations that can be used by planning and public works officials as a basis for making decisions on the development and management of their water resources. (USGS)

Suspended-Sediment Budget for the North Santiam River Basin, Oregon, Water Years 2005-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bragg, Heather M.; Uhrich, Mark A.

2010-01-01

Significant Findings An analysis of sediment transport in the North Santiam River basin during water years 2005-08 indicated that: Two-thirds of sediment input to Detroit Lake originated in the upper North Santiam River subbasin. Two-thirds of the sediment transported past Geren Island originated in the Little North Santiam River subbasin. The highest annual suspended-sediment load at any of the monitoring stations was the result of a debris flow on November 6, 2006, on Mount Jefferson. About 86 percent of the total sediment input to Detroit Lake was trapped in the lake, whereas 14 percent was transported farther downstream. More than 80 percent of the sediment transport in the basin was in November, December, and January. The variance in the annual suspended-sediment loads was better explained by the magnitude of the annual peak streamflow than by the annual mean streamflow.

Cost-effectiveness of the streamflow-gaging program in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Druse, S.A.; Wahl, K.L.

1988-01-01

This report documents the results of a cost-effectiveness study of the streamflow-gaging program in Wyoming. Regression analysis or hydrologic flow-routing techniques were considered for 24 combinations of stations from a 139-station network operated in 1984 to investigate suitability of techniques for simulating streamflow records. Only one station was determined to have sufficient accuracy in the regression analysis to consider discontinuance of the gage. The evaluation of the gaging-station network, which included the use of associated uncertainty in streamflow records, is limited to the nonwinter operation of the 47 stations operated by the Riverton Field Office of the U.S. Geological Survey. The current (1987) travel routes and measurement frequencies require a budget of $264,000 and result in an average standard error in streamflow records of 13.2%. Changes in routes and station visits using the same budget, could optimally reduce the standard error by 1.6%. Budgets evaluated ranged from $235,000 to $400,000. A $235,000 budget increased the optimal average standard error/station from 11.6 to 15.5%, and a $400,000 budget could reduce it to 6.6%. For all budgets considered, lost record accounts for about 40% of the average standard error. (USGS)

Application and Evaluation of a Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Tamor River Basin, Eastern Himalaya Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Data Assimilation Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panday, Prajjwal K.; Williams, Christopher A.; Frey, Karen E.; Brown, Molly E.

2013-01-01

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree-day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds.

Effectiveness of the New Hampshire stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.

2003-01-01

The stream-gaging network in New Hampshire was analyzed for its effectiveness in providing regional information on peak-flood flow, mean-flow, and low-flow frequency. The data available for analysis were from stream-gaging stations in New Hampshire and selected stations in adjacent States. The principles of generalized-least-squares regression analysis were applied to develop regional regression equations that relate streamflow-frequency characteristics to watershed characteristics. Regression equations were developed for (1) the instantaneous peak flow with a 100-year recurrence interval, (2) the mean-annual flow, and (3) the 7-day, 10-year low flow. Active and discontinued stream-gaging stations with 10 or more years of flow data were used to develop the regression equations. Each stream-gaging station in the network was evaluated and ranked on the basis of how much the data from that station contributed to the cost-weighted sampling-error component of the regression equation. The potential effect of data from proposed and new stream-gaging stations on the sampling error also was evaluated. The stream-gaging network was evaluated for conditions in water year 2000 and for estimated conditions under various network strategies if an additional 5 years and 20 years of streamflow data were collected. The effectiveness of the stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow information could be improved for all three flow characteristics with the collection of additional flow data, both temporally and spatially. With additional years of data collection, the greatest reduction in the average sampling error of the regional regression equations was found for the peak- and low-flow characteristics. In general, additional data collection at stream-gaging stations with unregulated flow, relatively short-term record (less than 20 years), and drainage areas smaller than 45 square miles contributed the largest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling error of the regional estimating equations. The results of the network analyses can be used to prioritize the continued operation of active stations, the reactivation of discontinued stations, or the activation of new stations to maximize the regional information content provided by the stream-gaging network. Final decisions regarding altering the New Hampshire stream-gaging network would require the consideration of the many uses of the streamflow data serving local, State, and Federal interests.

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

2018-04-01

This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate-model-based seasonal streamflow forecasting.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2005-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wainwright, H. M.; Sarah, T.; Siirila-Woodburn, E. R.; Newcomer, M. E.; Williams, K. H.; Hubbard, S. S.; Enquist, B. J.; Steltzer, H.; Carroll, R. W. H.

2017-12-01

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments Snow-dominated headwater catchments are critical for water resource throughout the world; particularly in Western US. Under climate change, temperature increases are expected to be amplified in mountainous regions. We use a data-driven approach to better understand the coupling among inter-annual variability in temperature, snow and plant community dynamics and stream discharge. We apply data mining methods (e.g., principal component analysis, random forest) to historical spatiotemporal datasets, including the SNOTEL data, Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and airborne LiDAR-based snow distribution. Although both snow distribution and NDVI are extremely heterogeneous spatially, the inter-annual variability and temporal responses are spatially consistent, providing an opportunity to quantify the effect of temperature in the catchment-scale. We demonstrate our approach in the East River Watershed of the Upper Colorado River Basin, including Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, where the changes in plant communities and their dynamics have been extensively documented. Results indicate that temperature - particularly spring temperature - has a significant control not only on the timing of snowmelt, plant NDVI and peak flow but also on the magnitude of peak NDVI, peak flow and annual discharge. Monthly temperature in spring explains the variability of snowmelt by the equivalent standard deviation of 3.4-4.4 days, and total discharge by 10-11%. In addition, the high correlation among June temperature, peak NDVI and annual discharge suggests a primary role of spring evapotranspiration on plant community phenology, productivity, and streamflow volume. On the other hand, summer monsoon precipitation does not contribute significantly to annual discharge, further emphasizing the importance of snowmelt. This approach is mostly based on a set of datasets typically available throughout the US, providing a powerful approach to link remote sensing techniques with long-term monitoring of temperature, snowfall, plant, and streamflow dynamics.

Decadal-scale export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment from the Susquehanna River basin, USA: Analysis and synthesis of temporal and spatial patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Qian; Ball, William P.; Moyer, Douglas

2016-01-01

The export of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) is a long-standing management concern for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of nutrient and sediment loads over the last three decades at multiple locations in the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), Chesapeake's largest tributary watershed. Sediment and nutrient riverine loadings, including both dissolved and particulate fractions, have generally declined at all sites upstream of Conowingo Dam (non-tidal SRB outlet). Period-of-record declines in riverine yield are generally smaller than those in source input, suggesting the possibility of legacy contributions. Consistent with other watershed studies, these results reinforce the importance of considering lag time between the implementation of management actions and achievement of river quality improvement. Whereas flow-normalized loadings for particulate species have increased recently below Conowingo Reservoir, those for upstream sites have declined, thus substantiating conclusions from prior studies about decreased reservoir trapping efficiency. In regard to streamflow effects, statistically significant log-linear relationships between annual streamflow and annual constituent load suggest the dominance of hydrological control on the inter-annual variability of constituent export. Concentration-discharge relationships revealed general chemostasis and mobilization effects for dissolved and particulate species, respectively, both suggesting transport-limitation conditions. In addition to affecting annual export rates, streamflow has also modulated the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, as reflected by its negative correlations with dissolved P/total P, dissolved N/total N, particulate P/SS, and total N/total P ratios. For land-use effects, period-of-record median annual yields of N, P, and SS all correlate positively with the area fraction of non-forested land but negatively with that of forested land under all hydrological conditions. Overall, this work has informed understanding with respect to four major factors affecting constituent export (i.e., source input, reservoir modulation, streamflow, and land use) and demonstrated the value of long-term river monitoring.

Digital-map grids of mean-annual precipitation for 1961-90, and generalized skew coefficients of annual maximum streamflow for Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rea, A.H.; Tortorelli, R.L.

1997-01-01

This digital report contains two digital-map grids of data that were used to develop peak-flow regression equations in Tortorelli, 1997, 'Techniques for estimating peak-streamflow frequency for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma,' U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 97-4202. One data set is a grid of mean annual precipitation, in inches, based on the period 1961-90, for Oklahoma. The data set was derived from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) mean annual precipitation grid for the United States, developed by Daly, Neilson, and Phillips (1994, 'A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain:' Journal of Applied Meteorology, v. 33, no. 2, p. 140-158). The second data set is a grid of generalized skew coefficients of logarithms of annual maximum streamflow for Oklahoma streams less than or equal to 2,510 square miles in drainage area. This grid of skew coefficients is taken from figure 11 of Tortorelli and Bergman, 1985, 'Techniques for estimating flood peak discharges for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma,' U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 84-4358. To save disk space, the skew coefficient values have been multiplied by 100 and rounded to integers with two significant digits. The data sets are provided in an ASCII grid format.

Streamflow, water-temperature, and specific-conductance data for selected streams draining into Lake Fryxell, lower Taylor Valley, Victoria Land, Antarctica, 1990-92

USGS Publications Warehouse

Von Guerard, Paul; McKnight, Diane M.; Harnish, R.A.; Gartner, J.W.; Andrews, E.D.

1995-01-01

During the 1990-91 and 1991-92 field seasons in Antarctica, streamflow, water-temperature, and specific-conductance data were collected on the major streams draining into Lake Fryxell. Lake Fryxell is a permanently ice-covered, closed-basin lake with 13 tributary streams. Continuous streamflow data were collected at eight sites, and periodic streamflow measurements were made at three sites. Continuous water-temperature and specific- conductance data were collected at seven sites, and periodic water-temperature and specific-conductance data were collected at all sites. Streamflow for all streams measured ranged from 0 to 0.651 cubic meter per second. Water temperatures for all streams measured ranged from 0 to 14.3 degrees Celsius. Specific conductance for all streams measured ranged from 11 to 491 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius. It is probable that stream- flow in the Lake Fryxell Basin during 1990-92 was greater than average. Examination of the 22-year streamflow record in the Onyx River in the Wright Valley revealed that in 1990 streamflow began earlier than for any previous year recorded and that the peak streamflow of record was exceeded. Similar high-flow conditions occurred during the 1991-92 field season. Thus, the data collected on streams draining into Lake Fryxell during 1990-92 are representative of greater than average stream- flow conditions.

Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

2018-04-01

The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

Statistical Comparisons of watershed scale response to climate change in selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John; Moradkhani, Hamid; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

In an earlier global climate-change study, air temperature and precipitation data for the entire twenty-first century simulated from five general circulation models were used as input to precalibrated watershed models for 14 selected basins across the United States. Simulated daily streamflow and energy output from the watershed models were used to compute a range of statistics. With a side-by-side comparison of the statistical analyses for the 14 basins, regional climatic and hydrologic trends over the twenty-first century could be qualitatively identified. Low-flow statistics (95% exceedance, 7-day mean annual minimum, and summer mean monthly streamflow) decreased for almost all basins. Annual maximum daily streamflow also decreased in all the basins, except for all four basins in California and the Pacific Northwest. An analysis of the supply of available energy and water for the basins indicated that ratios of evaporation to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to precipitation for most of the basins will increase. Probability density functions (PDFs) were developed to assess the uncertainty and multimodality in the impact of climate change on mean annual streamflow variability. Kolmogorov?Smirnov tests showed significant differences between the beginning and ending twenty-first-century PDFs for most of the basins, with the exception of four basins that are located in the western United States. Almost none of the basin PDFs were normally distributed, and two basins in the upper Midwest had PDFs that were extremely dispersed and skewed.

Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead time streamflow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad

2009-03-01

We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906-2001 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes with 3 years lead time. The SVM model is trained with 86 years of data (1906-1991) and tested with 10 years of data (1992-2001). On the basis of correlation coefficient, root means square error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, reveals a strong signal for ENSO and NAO indices as compared to PDO and AMO indices for the long lead time streamflow forecast. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feedforward back propagation artificial neural network model and linear regression.

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is related to the seasons and to the EL Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon that may be partly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 6. At almost all of the long-term stream-gaging stations considered in this study, average total flow (and to a lesser extent average base flow) during the winter months of January to March tended to be low following El Ni?o periods and high following La Ni?a periods, and this tendency was accentuated during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 7. The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon occurs at a relatively short time scale (a few to several years) and appears to be more strongly related to processes controlling rainfall and direct runoff than ground-water storage and base flow. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge. Because ground water provides about 99 percent of Hawaii's domestic drinking water, a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge has serious implications for drinking-water availability. In addition, reduction in stream base flows may reduce habitat availability for native stream fauna and water availability for irrigation purposes. Further study is needed to determine (1) whether the downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002 will continue or whether the observed pattern is part of a long-term cycle in which base flows may eventually return to levels measured during 1913 to the early 1940s, (2) the physical causes for the detected trends and variations in streamflow, and (3) whether regional climate indicators successfully can be used to predict streamflow trends and variations throughout the State. These needs for future study underscore the importance of maintaining a network of long-term-trend stream-gaging stations in Hawaii.

Multi-decadal Decline of Southeast United States Streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tootle, G. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Therrell, M.; Huffaker, R.; Elliott, E. A.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented population growth combined with environmental and energy demands have led to water conflict in the Southeastern United States. The states of Florida, Georgia and Alabama have recently engaged in litigation on minimum in-stream flows to maintain ecosystems, fisheries and energy demands while satisfying a growing thirst in metropolitan Atlanta. A study of Southeastern United States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee) streamflow identified a declining pattern of flow over the past 25 years with increased dry periods being observed in the last decade. When evaluating calendar year streamflow for (56) unimpaired streamflow stations, a robust period of streamflow in the 1970's was followed by a consistent decline in streamflow from 1990 to present. In evaluating 20-year, 10-year and 5-year time periods of annual streamflow volume, the past decade reveals historic lows for each of these periods. When evaluating the influence of high frequency (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) and low frequency (e.g., Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation - AMO) climatic phenomenon, the shift of the AMO from a cold phase to a warm phase in the 1990's combined with multiple La Nina events may be associated with the streamflow decline.

USGS Streamgages Linked to the Medium Resolution NHD

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David W.; Rea, Alan; Wolock, David M.

2006-01-01

The locations of approximately 23,000 current and historical U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the United States and Puerto Rico (with the exception of Alaska) have been snapped to the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset (NHD). The NHD contains geospatial information about mapped surface-water features, such as streams, lakes, and reservoirs, etc., creating a hydrologic network that can be used to determine what is upstream or downstream from a point of interest on the NHD network. An automated snapping process made the initial determination of the NHD location of each streamgage. These initial NHD locations were comprehensively reviewed by local USGS personnel to ensure that streamgages were snapped to the correct NHD reaches. About 75 percent of the streamgages snapped to the appropriate NHD reach location initially and 25 percent required adjustment and relocation. This process resulted in approximately 23,000 gages being successfully snapped to the NHD. This dataset contains the latitude and longitude coordinates of the point on the NHD to which the streamgage is snapped and the location of the gage house for each streamgage. A process known as indexing may be used to create reference points (event tables) to the NHD reaches, expressed as a reach code and measure (distance along the reach). Indexing is dependent on the version of NHD to which the indexing is referenced. These data are well suited for use in indexing because nearly all the streamgage NHD locations have been reviewed and adjusted if necessary, to ensure they will index to the appropriate NHD reach. Flow characteristics were computed from the daily streamflow data recorded at each streamgage for the period of record. The flow characteristics associated with each streamgage include: *First date (year, month, day) of streamflow data *Last date (year, month, day) of streamflow data *Number of days of streamflow data *Number of days of non-zero streamflow data *Minimum and maximum daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) *Percentiles (1, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 75, 80, 90, 95, 99) of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) *Average and standard deviation of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) *Mean annual base-flow index (BFI) computed for the period of record (fraction, ranging from 0 to 1) *Year-to-year standard deviation of the annual base-flow index computed for the period of record (fraction) *Number of years of data used to compute the base-flow index (years) The streamflow data used to compute flow characteristics were copied from the NWIS-Web historical daily discharge archive (nadww01.er.usgs.gov:/www/htdocs/nwisweb/data/discharge) on June 15, 2005.

Tree-ring chemistry response in black cherry to ammonium sulfate fertilization at two West Virginia sites

Treesearch

David R. DeWalle; Jeffrey S. Tepp; Callie J. Pickens; Pamela J. Edwards; William E. Sharpe

1995-01-01

The chemical element content of black cherry (Prunus serotina Ehrh.) tree rings showed significant changes related to annual ammonium sulfate treatments on one watershed (Fernow WS-3) which exhibited a significant increase in streamflow N export due to treatment. However, tree-ring, soil and streamflow chemistry did not respond to the same treatment...

Regional equations for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for natural basins in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, Raymond M.

1997-01-01

Peak-streamflow frequency for 559 Texas stations with natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) basins was estimated with annual peak-streamflow data through 1993. The peak-streamflow frequency and drainage-basin characteristics for the Texas stations were used to develop 16 sets of equations to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged natural stream sites in each of 11 regions in Texas. The relation between peak-streamflow frequency and contributing drainage area for 5 of the 11 regions is curvilinear, requiring that one set of equations be developed for drainage areas less than 32 square miles and another set be developed for drainage areas greater than 32 square miles. These equations, developed through multiple-regression analysis using weighted least squares, are based on the relation between peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations. The regions represent areas with similar flood characteristics. The use and limitations of the regression equations also are discussed. Additionally, procedures are presented to compute the 50-, 67-, and 90-percent confidence limits for any estimation from the equations. Also, supplemental peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for 105 selected stations bordering Texas are included in the report. This supplemental information will aid in interpretation of flood characteristics for sites near the state borders of Texas.

Basin characteristics, history of stream gaging, and statistical summary of selected streamflow records for the Rapid Creek basin, western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Daniel G.; Zogorski, John S.

1990-01-01

The report presents a summary of basin characteristics affecting streamflow, a history of the U.S. Geological Survey 's stream-gaging program, and a compilation of discharge records and statistical summaries for selected sites within the Rapid Creek basin. It is the first in a series which will investigate surface-water/groundwater relations along Rapid Creek. The summary of basin characteristics includes descriptions of the geology and hydrogeology, physiography and climate, land use and vegetation, reservoirs, and water use within the basin. A recounting of the U.S. Geological Survey 's stream-gaging program and a tabulation of historic stream-gaging stations within the basin are furnished. A compilation of monthly and annual mean discharge values for nine currently operated, long-term, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations on Rapid Creek is presented. The statistical summary for each site includes summary statistics on monthly and annual mean values, correlation matrix for monthly values, serial correlation for 1 year lag for monthly values, percentile rankings for monthly and annual mean values, low and high value tables, duration curves, and peak-discharge tables. Records of monthend contents for two reservoirs within the basin also are presented. (USGS)

Improving estimates of streamflow characteristics using LANDSAT-1 (ERTS-1) imagery. [Delmarva Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollyday, E. F. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Streamflow characteristics in the Delmarva Peninsula derived from the records of daily discharge of 20 gaged basins are representative of the full range in flow conditions and include all of those commonly used for design or planning purposes. They include annual flood peaks with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, mean annual discharge, standard deviation of the mean annual discharge, mean monthly discharges, standard deviation of the mean monthly discharges, low-flow characteristics, flood volume characteristics, and the discharge equalled or exceeded 50 percent of the time. Streamflow and basin characteristics were related by a technique of multiple regression using a digital computer. A control group of equations was computed using basin characteristics derived from maps and climatological records. An experimental group of equations was computed using basin characteristics derived from LANDSAT imagery as well as from maps and climatological records. Based on a reduction in standard error of estimate equal to or greater than 10 percent, the equations for 12 stream flow characteristics were substantially improved by adding to the analyses basin characteristics derived from LANDSAT imagery.

Water resources inventory of Connecticut Part 1: Quinebaug River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Randall, Allan D.; Thomas, Mendall P.; Thomas, Chester E.; Baker, John A.

1966-01-01

The Quinebaug River basin is blessed with a relatively abundant supply of water of generally good quality which is derived from precipitation that has fallen on the basin. Annual precipitation has ranged from about 30 to 67 inches and has averaged about 45 inches over a 44-year period. Approximately 21 inches of water are returned to the atmosphere each year by evaporation and transpiration; the remainder of the annual precipitation either flows overland to streams or percolates downward to the water table and ultimately flows out of the basin in the Quinebaug River. During the autumn and winter months precipitation normally is sufficient to cause a substantial increase in the amount of water stored underground and in surface reservoirs within the basin, whereas in the summer most of the precipitation is lost through evaporation and transpiration, resulting in sharply reduced streamflow and lowered ground-water levels.

Geohydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Red Clay Creek Basin, Chester County, Pennsylvania, and New Castle County, Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vogel, Karen L.; Reif, Andrew G.

1993-01-01

The 54-square-mile Red Clay Creek Basin, located in the lower Delaware River Basin, is underlain primarily by metamorphic rocks that range from Precambrian to Lower Paleozoic in age. Ground water flows through secondary openings in fractured crystalline rock and through primary openings below the water table in the overlying saprolite. Secondary porosity and permeability vary with hydrogeologic unit, topographic setting, and depth. Thirty-nine percent of the water-bearing zones are encountered within 100 feet of the land surface, and 79 percent are within 200 feet. The fractured crystalline rock and overlying saprolite act as a single aquifer under unconfined conditions. The water table is a subdued replica of the land surface. Local ground-water flow systems predominate in the basin, and natural ground-water discharge is to streams, comprising 62 to 71 percent of streamflow. Water budgets for 1988-90 for the 45-square-mile effective drainage area above the Woodale, Del., streamflow-measurement station show that annual precipitation ranged from 43.59 to 59.14 inches and averaged 49.81 inches, annual streamflow ranged from 15.35 to 26.33 inches and averaged 20.24 inches, and annual evapotranspiration ranged from 27.87 to 30.43 inches and averaged 28.98 inches. The crystalline rocks of the Red Clay Creek Basin were simulated two-dimensionally as a single aquifer under unconfined conditions. The model was calibrated for short-term steady-state conditions on November 2, 1990. Recharge was 8.32 inches per year. Values of aquifer hydraulic conductivity in hillside topographic settings ranged from 0.07 to 2.60 feet per day. Values of streambed hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.08 to 26.0 feet per day. Prior to simulations where ground-water development was increased, the calibrated steady-state model was modified to approximate long-term average conditions in the basin. Base flow of 11.98 inches per year and a ground-water evapotranspiration rate of 2.17 inches per year were simulated by the model. Different combinations of ground-water supply and wastewater-disposal plans were simulated to assess their effects on the stream-aquifer system. Six of the simulations represent an increase in population of 14,283 and water use of 1.07 million gallons per day. One simulation represents an increase in population of 28,566 and water use of 2.14 million gallons per day. Reduction of average base flow is greatest for development plans with wastewater removed from the basin through sewers and is proportional to the amount of water removed from the basin. The development plan that had the least effect on water levels and base flow included on-lot wells and on-lot septic systems. Five organochlorine insecticides--lindane, DDT, dieldrin, heptachlor, and methoxychlor--were detected in ground water. Four organophosphorus insecticides--malathion, parathion, diazinon, and phorate--were detected in ground water. Four volatile organic compounds--benzene, toluene, tetrachloroethylene, and trichloroethylene--were detected in ground water. Phenol was detected at concentrations up to 8 micrograms per liter in water from 50 percent of 14 wells sampled. The concentration of dissolved nitrate in water from 18 percent of wells sampled exceeded 10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen; concentration of nitrate were as high as 19 milligrams per liter. PCB was detected in the bottom material of West Branch Red Clay Creek at Kennet Square at concentrations up to 5,600 micrograms per kilogram.

Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes over the San Antonio River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, G.; Gao, H.; Cuo, L.

2014-12-01

With the rapid population growth and economic development in the State of Texas, a fast urbanization process has occurred over the past several decades. The direct consequences of the increased impervious area are greater surface runoff and higher flood peaks. Meanwhile, climate change has led to more frequent extreme events. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the hydrological processes under urbanization and climate change is indispensable for sustainable water management. In this investigation, a case study was conducted by applying the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to the San Antonio River Basin (SARB), Texas. Hosting the seventh largest city in the U.S. (i.e., City of San Antonio), the SARB is vulnerable to both floods and droughts. A set of historical and future land cover maps were assembled to represent the urbanization process. Two forcing datasets were employed to drive the DHSVM model. The first is a long-term observation based dataset (1915-2011), which was used as inputs for calibrating and validating DHSVM, as well as evaluating the urbanization effect. The second is the statistically downscaled climate simulations (1950-2099) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which were applied for understanding impacts related to climate change. Results show that urbanization exerts a much larger influence on streamflow than climate change does. Under the same observed forcings, annual average streamflow increased from 993.0 cfs (with 1929 land cover) to 1777.7 cfs (with 2011 land cover). As for climate change, results suggest that it will exacerbate the drought severity — with reduced evapotranspiration and soil moisture caused by decreased precipitation. However, the projected future streamflow does not show a clear increasing or decreasing trend. Regarding the combined effect from urbanization and climate change, the results indicate that the seasonal streamflow pattern will be notably changed (i.e., streamflow in October will be significantly increased, which makes it a second flow peak in addition to May). Furthermore, with significantly decreased evapotranspiration and slightly increased soil moisture, more water will be available for streamflow, increasing the possibility of flood risk in the region.

Use of a watershed-modeling approach to assess hydrologic effects of urbanization, North Fork Pheasant Branch basin near Middleton, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steuer, Jeffrey J.; Hunt, R.J.

2001-01-01

The North Fork Pheasant Branch Basin in Dane County, Wisconsin is expected to undergo development. There are concerns that development will adversely affect water resources with increased flood peaks, increased runoff volumes, and increased pollutant loads. To provide a scientific basis for evaluating the hydrologic system response to development the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to model the upper Pheasant Branch Creek watershed with an emphasis on the North Fork Basin. The upper Pheasant Branch Creek (18.3 mi2; 11,700 acres) Basin was represented with 21 Hydrologic Response Units (daily time step) and 50 flow planes (5-minute time steps). Precipitation data from the basin outlet streamflow-gaging station located at Highway 12 and temperature data from a nearby airport were used to drive the model. Continuous discharge records at three gaging stations were used for model calibration. To qualitatively assess model representation of small subbasins, periodic reconnaissance, often including a depth measurement, was made after precipitation to determine the occurrence of flow in ditches and channels from small subbasins. As a further effort to verify the model on a small subbasin scale, continuous-stage sensors (15-minute intervals) measured depth at the outlets of three small subbasins (500 to 1,200 acres). Average annual precipitation for the simulation period from 1993 to 1998 was 35.2 inches. The model simulations showed that, on average, 23.9 inches were intercepted by vegetation, or lost to evapotranspiration, 6.0 inches were infiltrated and moved to the regional ground-water system, and 4.8 inches contributed to the upper Pheasant Branch streamflow. The largest runoff event during the calibration interval was in July 1993 (746 ft3/sec; with a recurrence interval of approximately 25 years). Resulting recharge rates from the calibrated model were subsequently used as input into a ground-water-flow model. Average annual recharge varied spatially from 2.3 inches per year in the highly impervious commercial/industrial area to 9.7 inches per year in the undeveloped North Fork Basin with an average overall recharge rate of 8.1 inches per year. Two development scenarios were examined to assess changes in water-budget fluxes. In scenario A, when development was predominantly low-density residential with 5 to 10 percent commercial development along principal roadways, mean annual streamflow increased by 53 percent, overland flow increased by 84 percent, base flow decreased by 15 percent and annual recharge to the regional ground-water system was reduced by 10 percent. In development scenario B, the entire North Fork and intervening area basins contained 50 percent commercial and 50 percent medium density residential land use. Annual storm runoff increased by over 450 percent. The ground-water model for the Pheasant Branch that used the scenario B recharge rates simulated a lowered water table with zero base flow and that flow from Frederick Springs would be reduced 26 percent from present-day (1993?98) conditions.An additional example application of the model evaluated locations of flood detention ponds and potential recharge areas that may mitigate the changes in flood peaks and ground-water recharge resulting from urbanization. From February 1998 through July 1998, water-quality samples were collected by use of stage-activated automated samplers. Median suspended- sediment concentrations were similar between the North and South Fork Basins (194 and 242 mg/L, respectively); however, for other constituents, North Fork values were considerably higher: median phosphorus concentrations by 4 times (1.5 and 0.35 mg/L), median ammonia concentrations by 13 times (1.9 and 0.14 mg/L), and the phosphorus-to-sediment ratio by more than 6 times (21 and 3.1 mg/g).

Evaluation of Strategies for Balancing Water Use and Streamflow Reductions in the Upper Charles River Basin, Eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleston, Jack R.

2004-01-01

The upper Charles River basin, located 30 miles southwest of Boston, Massachusetts, is experiencing water shortages during the summer. Towns in the basin have instituted water-conservation programs and water-use bans to reduce summertime water use. During July through October, streamflow in the Charles River and its tributaries regularly falls below 0.50 cubic foot per second per square mile, the minimum streamflow used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as its Aquatic Base Flow standard for maintaining healthy freshwater ecosystems. To examine how human water use could be changed to mitigate these water shortages, a numerical ground-water flow model was modified and used in conjunction with response coefficients and optimization techniques. Streamflows at 10 locations on the Charles River and its tributaries were determined under various water-use scenarios and climatic conditions. A variety of engineered solutions to the water shortages were examined for their ability to increase water supplies and summertime streamflows. Results indicate that although human water use contributes to the problem of low summertime streamflows, human water use is not the only, or even the primary, cause of low flows in the basin. The lowest summertime streamflows increase by 12 percent but remain below the Aquatic Base Flow standard when all public water-supply pumpage and wastewater flows in the basin are eliminated in a simulation under average climatic conditions. Under dry climatic conditions, the same measures increase the lowest average monthly streamflow by 95 percent but do not increase it above the Aquatic Base Flow standard. The most promising water-management strategies to increase streamflows and water supplies, based on the study results, include wastewater recharge to the aquifer, altered management of pumping well schedules, regional water-supply sharing, and water conservation. In a scenario that simulated towns sharing water supplies, streamflow in the Charles River as it exits the basin increased by 18 percent during July through September and an excess water-supply capacity of 13.4 cubic feet per second, above and beyond average use, would be available to all towns in the basin. These study results could help water suppliers and regulators evaluate strategies for balancing ground-water development and streamflow reductions in the basin.

Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, E.P.; Stewart, I.T.; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, P.B.; Cayan, D.

2007-01-01

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by "center timing" (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1-4 decades or 4-8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5??. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between -2??C and -4??C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 in are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961-1990. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geology and hydrology of the West Milton area, Saratoga County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Frederick K.; Pauszek, F.H.; Crippen, John R.

1964-01-01

This report describes the geology, ground-water conditions, streamflow characteristics, and quality of water in the West Milton area, Saratoga County, N.Y. The West Milton area is in the east-central part of New York in the hilly region that forms a transition zone between the Adirondack Mountains and the Hudson-Mohawk valley lowland. Bedrock underlying the area consists of crystalline rocks of Precambrian age and sandstone, dolomite, limestone, and shale formations of Cambrian and Ordovician age. The formations have been moderately folded and have been displaced as much as several hundred feet' along at least three northeast-trending normal faults. The bedrock is overlain in nearly all parts of the area by a layer of unconsolidated deposits which ranges in thickness from a few feet to more than 200 feet. The unconsolidated deposits are of Pleistocene age and consist of unstratified materials (till) laid down by glacial ice at stratified sediments deposited by glacial meltwaters. The topography of the bedrock surface differs greatly from the topography of the land surface. Although not evident in the present topography, at least two channels, cut in bedrock by preglacial streams, pass through the area. Ground-water supplies adequate to satisfy domestic requirements can be obtained from wells in any part of the area. Large ground-water supplies may be taken from coarse-grained stratified deposits comprising two aquifers in the valley of Kayaderosseras Creek. The Atomic Energy Commission has pumped as much as 1 mgd from a horizontal well drawing from the uppermost aquifer which is composed of flood-plain deposits. Part of the water yielded by this well during extended periods of pumping is induced flow from the creek. Three nearby vertical wells drilled by the Commission comprise a separate well field capable of yielding at least 2 mgd and possibly as much as 3 mgd from the deeper stratified deposits underlying the valley. A pumping test showed that at near the center of this well field the coefficient of transmissibility is about 125,000 gpd per ft and the coefficient of storage is about 0.0003. The water obtained from the sand and gravel has a hardness of about 125 ppm and contains about 150 ppm of dissolved solids. Most of the Government reservation is drained by Glowegee Creek, one of the larger tributaries of Kayaderosseras Creek. The average streamflow of Kayaderosseras Creek at West Milton is 141 cfs or about 1.5 cfs per sq. mi. The monthly mean discharge has ranged from a low of 21.7 cfs in September 1958 to a high of 866 cfs in March 1936, and the annual mean discharge has ranged from 94.5 cfs in 1941 to 198 cfs in 1952. The mean annual flood is 1,740 cfs and the 50-year flood is 5,300 cfs. Streamflow data have been collected on Glowegee Creek since 1948 at a station 0.5 mile south of West Milton. The average streamflow of Glowegee Creek at this station is 41 cfs or about 1.5 cfs per sq mi. The mean annual flood is 740 cfs and the 50-year flood is 2,250 cfs. The quality of the water in both Kayaderosseras Creek and Glowegee Creek is satisfactory for public supply and most industrial purposes. The mineral content of both streams is low--the dissolved-solids content averaging about 93 ppm in Kayaderosseras Creek and about 131 ppm in Glowegee Creek. The average hardness of water in Kayaderosseras Creek and Glowegee Creek is 68 ppm and 102 ppm, respectively. During periods of low flow, suspended sediment discharge in both streams is less than 10 tons per day, but during periods of high flow, the sediment discharge has been as great as 163 tons per day in Glowegee Creek and 437 tons per day in Kayaderosseras Creek.

Flow characteristics of rivers in northern Australia: Implications for development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petheram, Cuan; McMahon, Thomas A.; Peel, Murray C.

2008-07-01

SummaryAnnual, monthly and daily streamflows from 99 unregulated rivers across northern Australia were analysed to assess the general surface water resources of the region and their implications for development. The potential for carry-over storages was assessed using the Gould-Dincer Gamma method, which utilises the mean, standard deviation, skewness and lag-one serial correlation coefficient of annual flows. Runs Analysis was used to describe the characteristics of drought in northern Australia and the potential for 'active' water harvesting was evaluated by Base Flow Separation, Flow Duration Curves and Spells Analysis. These parameters for northern Australia were compared with data from southern Australia and data for similar Köppen class from around the world. Notably, the variability and seasonality of annual streamflow across northern Australia were observed to be high compared with that of similar Köppen classes from the rest of the world (RoW). The high inter-annual variability of runoff means that carry-over storages in northern Australia will need to be considerably larger than for rivers from the RoW (assuming similar mean annual runoff, yield and reliability). For example, in the three major Köppen zones across the North, it was possible (theoretically) to only exploit approximately 33% (Köppen Aw; n = 6), 25% (Köppen BSh; n = 12) and 13% (Köppen BWh; n = 11) of mean annual streamflow (assuming a hypothetical storage size equal to the mean annual flow). Over 90% of north Australian rivers had a Base Flow Index of less than 0.4, 72% had negative annual lag-one autocorrelation values and in half the rivers sampled greater than 80% of the total flow occurred during the 3-month peak period. These data confirm that flow in the rivers of northern Australia is largely event driven and that the north Australian environment has limited natural storage capacity. Hence, there is relatively little opportunity in many northern rivers to actively harvest water for on-farm storage, particularly under environmental flow rules that stipulate that water can only be extracted during the falling limb of a hydrograph. Streamflow drought severity, the product of drought length and magnitude, was found to be greater in northern Australia than in similar climatic regions of the RoW, due to higher inter-annual variability increasing the drought magnitude over the course of normal drought lengths. The high likelihood of severe drought means that agriculturalists seeking to irrigate from rivers in northern Australia should have especially well developed drought contingency plans.

Intra-to multidecadel variations of snowpack and streamflow records in the Andes of Chile and Argentina between 30 degrees and 37 degrees S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Regional composites of winter snowpack (1951-2008) and mean annual river discharges (1906-2007) are used to evaluate the main intra- to multi-decadal hydrologic variations in the Andes of Chile and Argentina between 30° and 37°S. The streamflow record shows a non-significant negative trend but two s...

Logging effects on streamflow: water yields and summer flows at Caspar Creek in northwestern California

Treesearch

Elizabeth T. Keppeler; Robert R. Ziemer

1990-01-01

Streamflow data for a 21-year period were analyzed to determine the effects of selective tractor harvesting of second-growth Douglas fir and redwood forest on the volume, timing, and duration of low flows and annual water yield in northwestern California. The flow response to logging was highly variable. Some of this variability was correlated with antecedent...

Streamflow characteristics of the Colorado River Basin in Utah through September 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, R.C.; Johnson, E.B.; Plantz, G.G.

1987-01-01

 This report summarizes discharge data and other streamflow characteristics developed from gag ing-station records collected through September 1981 at 337 stations in the Colorado River Basin in Utah. Data also are included for 14 stations in adjacent areas of the bordering states of Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming (fig. 1). The study leading to this report was done in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, which needs the streamflow data in order to evaluate impacts of mining on the hydrologic system. The report also will be beneficial to other Federal, State, and county agencies and to individuals concerned with water supply and water problems in the Colorado River Basin.The streamflow characteristics in the report could be useful in many water-related studies that involve the following:Definition of baseline-hydrologic conditions; studies of the effects of man's activities on streamflow; frequency analyses of low and high flows; regional analyses of streamflow characteristics; design of water-supply systems; water-power studies; forecasting of stream discharge; time-series analyses of streamflow; design of flood-control structures; stream-pollution studies; and water-chemistry transport studies.The basic data used to develop the summaries in this report are records of daily and peak discharge collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal agencies. Much of the work of the Geological Survey was done in cooperation with Federal, State, and county agencies. Discharge recordsincluded in the report generally were for stations with at least 1 complete water year of record and nearby stations that were on the same stream and had different streamflow characteristics. A water year is a 12-month period ending September 30, and it is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. For streams that have had significant changes in regulation by reservoirs or diversions, the records before and after those changes were used separately to provide streamflow characteristics for each period of homogeneous streamflow and to show the change in the characteristics. Summaries for annual peak discharge are included only for stations with 5 or more years of data. The summaries of annual lowest and highest mean-discharge frequency are reported for stations with 10 or more years of daily-discharge record and for which computer-generated frequency curves provided a reasonable fit of the plotted data.

Simulation of streamflow and estimation of ground-water recharge in the Upper Cibolo Creek Watershed, south-central Texas, 1992-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ockerman, Darwin J.

2007-01-01

A watershed model (Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN) was developed, calibrated, and tested by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, San Antonio River Authority, San Antonio Water System, and Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority, to simulate streamflow and estimate ground-water recharge in the upper Cibolo Creek watershed in south-central Texas. Rainfall, evapotranspiration, and streamflow data were collected during 1992?2004 for model calibrations and simulations. Estimates of average ground-water recharge during 1992?2004 from simulation were 79,800 acre-feet (5.47 inches) per year or about 15 percent of rainfall. Most of the recharge (about 74 percent) occurred as infiltration of streamflow in Cibolo Creek. The remaining recharge occurred as diffuse infiltration of rainfall through the soil and rock layers and karst features. Most recharge (about 77 percent) occurred in the Trinity aquifer outcrop. The remaining 23 percent occurred in the downstream part of the watershed that includes the Edwards aquifer recharge zone (outcrop). Streamflow and recharge in the study area are greatly influenced by large storms. Storms during June 1997, October 1998, and July 2002 accounted for about 11 percent of study-area rainfall, 61 percent of streamflow, and 16 percent of the total ground-water recharge during 1992?2004. Annual streamflow and recharge also were highly variable. During 1999, a dry year with about 16 inches of rain and no measurable runoff at the watershed outlet, recharge in the watershed amounted to only 0.99 inch compared with 13.43 inches during 1992, a relatively wet year with about 54 inches of rainfall. Simulation of flood-control/recharge-enhancement structures showed that certain structures might reduce flood peaks and increase recharge. Simulation of individual structures on tributaries showed relatively little effect. Larger structures on the main stem of Cibolo Creek were more effective than structures on tributaries, both in terms of flood-peak reduction and recharge enhancement. One simulated scenario that incorporated two main-stem structures resulted in a 37-percent reduction of peak flow at the watershed outlet and increases in stream-channel recharge of 6.6 percent in the Trinity aquifer outcrop and 12.6 percent in the Edwards aquifer (recharge zone) outcrop.

Availability of streamflow for recharge of the basal aquifer in the Pearl Harbor area, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirashima, George Tokusuke

1971-01-01

The Pearl Harbor area is underlain by an extensive basal aquifer that contains large supplies of fresh water. Because of the presence of a cap rock composed of sedimentary material that is less permeable than the basaltic lava of the basal aquifer, seaward movement of ground water is retarded. The cap rock causes the basal water to stand at a high level; thus, the lens of fresh water that floats on sea water is thick. Discharge from the basal ground-water body, which includes pumpage from wells and shafts, averaged 250 million gallons per day during 1931-65. Because the water level in the basal aquifer did not decline progressively, recharge to the ground-water body must have been approximately equal to discharge. Although pumping for agricultural use has decreased since 1931, net ground-water discharge has increased because of a large increase in pumping for urban use. Substitution of ground water for surface water in the irrigation of sugarcane has also contributed to a net increase in ground-water discharge. The development of Mililani Town will further increase discharge. The increase in ground-water discharge may cause an increase in chloride content of the water pumped from wells near the shore of Pearl Harbor unless the increased discharge is balanced by increased recharge to the local aquifer. The aquifer is recharged by direct infiltration and deep percolation of rain, principally in the high forested area, by infiltration and percolation of irrigation water applied in excess of plant requirements, by seepage of water through streambeds, and possibly by ground-water inflow from outside the area. Recharge is greatest in the uplands, where rainfall is heavy and where much infiltration takes place before rainwater collects in the middle and lower reaches of stream channels. Once water collects in and saturates the alluvium of stream channels, additional inflow to the streams will flow out to sea, only slightly decreased by seepage. Average annual direct runoff from the 90-square-mile Pearl Harbor area is 47.27 million gallons per day, or 11.1 inches; this is 13.3 percent of the average annual rainfall (83.3 in.) over the area. Average annual direct runoff in streams at the 800- and 400-foot altitudes is 29 and 38 million gallons per day, respectively. Kipapa Stream has the largest average annual direct runoff at those altitudes--6 and 9 million gallons per day, respectively. Because streams are flashy and have a wide range in discharge, only 60 percent of the average annual runoff can be economically diverted through ditches to recharge areas. The diversion may be increased slightly if reservoirs are used in conjunction with ditches to temporarily detain flows in excess of ditch capacity. The planned irrigation use of some of the perennial flow available in Waikele Stream near sea level will decrease pumping from and increase recharge to the basal aquifer. Suspended-sediment load is mainly silt and clay, and it increases rapidly with increased discharge. Thus, the use of streamflow for artificial recharge poses problems. High flows must be used if recharge is to be effective, but flows must not be so high as to cause clogging of recharge facilities with sediment or woodland debris. Practical tests are needed to determine the advantages and disadvantages of different types of recharge structures, such as a reservoir or basin, large-diameter deep shafts, deep wells, or combinations of all these structures.

Floods of September 2010 in Southern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Christopher A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Mitton, Gregory B.; Kruse, Gregory A.

2011-01-01

During September 22-24, 2010, heavy rainfall ranging from 3 inches to more than 10 inches caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions, where summer rainfall totals were as high as 20 inches, exceeding the historical average by more than 4 inches. Widespread flooding that occurred as a result of the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of hundreds of residents, and damages in excess of 64 million dollars to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, 21 counties in southern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at nine U.S. Geological Survey and three Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 27 U.S. Geological Survey and 5 Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages and 5 ungaged sites. Flood-peak streamflows in 2010 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years) at 7 streamgages and less than 1 percent (recurrence interval greater than 100 years) at 5 streamgages and 4 ungaged sites. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Faribault along the Cannon and Straight Rivers, Owatonna along the Straight River and Maple Creek, Pine Island along the North Branch and Middle Fork Zumbro River, and Zumbro Falls along the Zumbro River. The nearby communities of Hammond, Henderson, Millville, Oronoco, Pipestone, and Rapidan also received extensive flooding and damage but were not surveyed for high-water marks. Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for the four most severely affected communities were constructed in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available. The flood maps and profiles show the extent and height of flooding through the communities and can be used for flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

Monthly streamflow forecasting with auto-regressive integrated moving average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, Najah; Samsudin, Ruhaidah; Shabri, Ani

2017-09-01

Forecasting of streamflow is one of the many ways that can contribute to better decision making for water resource management. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was selected in this research for monthly streamflow forecasting with enhancement made by pre-processing the data using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). This study also proposed an extension of the SSA technique to include a step where clustering was performed on the eigenvector pairs before reconstruction of the time series. The monthly streamflow data of Sungai Muda at Jeniang, Sungai Muda at Jambatan Syed Omar and Sungai Ketil at Kuala Pegang was gathered from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia. A ratio of 9:1 was used to divide the data into training and testing sets. The ARIMA, SSA-ARIMA and Clustered SSA-ARIMA models were all developed in R software. Results from the proposed model are then compared to a conventional auto-regressive integrated moving average model using the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error values. It was found that the proposed model can outperform the conventional model.

Variation of Annual ET Determined from Water Budgets Across Rural Southeastern Basins Differing in Forest Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Younger, S. E.; Jackson, C. R.

2017-12-01

In the Southeastern United States, evapotranspiration (ET) typically accounts for 60-70% of precipitation. Watershed and plot scale experiments show that evergreen forests have higher ET rates than hardwood forests and pastures. However, some plot experiments indicate that certain hardwood species have higher ET than paired evergreens. The complexity of factors influencing ET in mixed land cover watersheds makes identifying the relative influences difficult. Previous watershed scale studies have relied on regression to understand the influences or low flow analysis to indicate growing season differences among watersheds. Existing studies in the southeast investigating ET rates for watersheds with multiple forest cover types have failed to identify a significant forest type effect, but these studies acknowledge small sample sizes. Trends of decreasing streamflow have been recognized in the region and are generally attributed to five key factors, 1.) influences from multiple droughts, 2.) changes in distribution of precipitation, 3.) reforestation of agricultural land, 4.) increasing consumptive uses, or 5.) a combination of these and other factors. This study attempts to address the influence of forest type on long term average annual streamflow and on stream low flows. Long term annual ET rates were calculated as ET = P-Q for 46 USGS gaged basins with daily data for the 1982 - 2014 water years, >40% forest cover, and no large reservoirs. Land cover data was regressed against ET to describe the relationship between each of the forest types in the National Land Cover Database. Regression analysis indicates evergreen land cover has a positive relationship with ET while deciduous and total forest have a negative relationship with ET. Low flow analysis indicates low flows tend to be lower in watersheds with more evergreen cover, and that low flows increase with increasing deciduous cover, although these relationships are noisy. This work suggests considering forest cover type improves understanding of watershed scale ET at annual and seasonal levels which is consistent with historic paired watershed experiments and some plot scale data.

Use of digital land-cover data from the Landsat satellite in estimating streamflow characteristics in the Cumberland Plateau of Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hollyday, E.F.; Hansen, G.R.

1983-01-01

Streamflow may be estimated with regression equations that relate streamflow characteristics to characteristics of the drainage basin. A statistical experiment was performed to compare the accuracy of equations using basin characteristics derived from maps and climatological records (control group equations) with the accuracy of equations using basin characteristics derived from Landsat data as well as maps and climatological records (experimental group equations). Results show that when the equations in both groups are arranged into six flow categories, there is no substantial difference in accuracy between control group equations and experimental group equations for this particular site where drainage area accounts for more than 90 percent of the variance in all streamflow characteristics (except low flows and most annual peak logarithms). (USGS)

Evaluation and trends of land cover, streamflow, and water quality in the North Canadian River Basin near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, 1968–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.; Andrews, William J.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Oklahoma City, collected water-quality samples from the North Canadian River at the streamflow-gaging station near Harrah, Oklahoma (Harrah station), since 1968, and at an upstream streamflow-gaging station at Britton Road at Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (Britton Road station), since 1988. Statistical summaries and frequencies of detection of water-quality constituent data from water samples, and summaries of water-quality constituent data from continuous water-quality monitors are described from the start of monitoring at those stations through 2009. Differences in concentrations between stations and time trends for selected constituents were evaluated to determine the effects of: (1) wastewater effluent discharges, (2) changes in land-cover, (3) changes in streamflow, (4) increases in urban development, and (5) other anthropogenic sources of contamination on water quality in the North Canadian River downstream from Oklahoma City. Land-cover changes between 1992 and 2001 in the basin between the Harrah station and Lake Overholser upstream included an increase in developed/barren land-cover and a decrease in pasture/hay land cover. There were no significant trends in median and greater streamflows at either streamflow-gaging station, but there were significant downward trends in lesser streamflows, especially after 1999, which may have been associated with decreases in precipitation between 1999 and 2009 or construction of low-water dams on the river upstream from Oklahoma City in 1999. Concentrations of dissolved chloride, lead, cadmium, and chlordane most frequently exceeded the Criterion Continuous Concentration (a water-quality standard for protection of aquatic life) in water-quality samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Visual trends in annual frequencies of detection were investigated for selected pesticides with frequencies of detection greater than 10 percent in all water samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Annual frequencies of detection of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and bromacil increased with time. Annual frequencies of detection of atrazine, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dichlorprop, and lindane decreased with time. Dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station, whereas specific conductance was greater at the Britton Road station. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and fecal coliform bacteria were not significantly different between stations. Daily minimum, mean, and maximum specific conductance collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Britton Road station than in water samples collected at the Harrah station. Daily minimum, maximum, and diurnal fluctuations of water temperature collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station. The daily maximums and diurnal range of dissolved oxygen concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Britton Road station than at the Harrah station, but daily mean dissolved oxygen concentrations in water at those streamflow-gaging stations were not significantly different. Daily mean and diurnal water temperature ranges increased with time at the Britton Road and Harrah streamflow-gaging stations, whereas daily mean and diurnal specific conductance ranges decreased with time at both streamflow-gaging stations from 1988–2009. Daily minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations collected from continuous water-quality monitors more frequently indicated hypoxic conditions at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station after 1999. Fecal coliform bacteria counts in water decreased slightly from 1988–2009 at the Britton Road station. The Seasonal Kendall's tau test indicated significant downward trends in

Effects of irrigation on streamflow in the Central Sand Plain of Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weeks, E.P.; Stangland, H.G.

1971-01-01

Development of ground water for irrigation affects streamflow and water levels in the sand-plain area of central Wisconsin. Additional irrigation development may reduce opportunities for water-based recreation by degrading the streams as trout habitat and by lowering lake levels. This study was made to inventory present development of irrigation in the sand-plain area, assess potential future development, and estimate the effects of irrigation on streamflow and ground-water levels. The suitability of land and the availability of ground water for irrigation are dependent, to a large extent, upon the geology of the area. Rocks making up the ground-water reservoir include outwash, morainal deposits, and glacial lake deposits. These deposits are underlain by crystalline rocks and by sandstone, which act as the floor of the ground-water reservoir. Outwash, the main aquifer, supplies water to about 300 irrigation wells and maintains relatively stable flow in the streams draining the area. The saturated thickness of these deposits is more than 100 feet over much of the area and is as much as 180 feet in bedrock valleys. The saturated thickness of the outwash generally is great enough to provide sufficient water for large-scale irrigation in all but two areas --one near the town of Wisconsin Rapids and one near Dorro Couche Mound. Aquifer tests indicate that the permeability of the outwash is quite high, ranging from about 1,000 gpd per square foot to about 3,800 gpd per square foot, Specific capacities of irrigation wells in the area range from 14 to 157 gpm per foot of drawdown. Water use in the sand-plain area is mainly for irrigation and waterbased recreation. Irrigation development began in the area in the late 1940's, and by 1967 about 19,500 acre-feet of water were pumped to irrigate 34,000 acres of potatoes, snap beans, corn, cucumbers, and other crops. About 70 percent of the applied water was lost to evapotranspiration, and about 30 percent was returned to the ground-water reservoir. Irrigation development should continue in the sand plain; future development probably will include improved artificial drainage and land clearing. The hydrology of the sand-plain area was studied from water budgets for seven basins and from water balances for eight types of vegetative cover or land use. During the study period about 16-20 inches of the 28- to 30-inch average annual precipitation were lost to evapotranspiration from different basins in the area, Evapotranspiration from different types of vegetative cover or land use ranged from about 14 inches per year for bare ground to about 25 inches per year from land covered by phreatophytes. Evapotranspiration is about 19 inches from forested land, about 16 inches from grassland and unirrigated row crops, about 19 inches from irrigated beans, and about 22 inches from irrigated potatoes. Variations in evapotranspiration from the different types of vegetative cover result mainly from differences in soil moisture available to the plants. Available soil moisture ranges from about 1 inch for shallow-rooted grasses and row crops to about 3 inches for forest. Most of the precipitation not used by plants or to replenish soil moisture seeps to the water table, and ground-water recharge in the area averages about 12-14 inches per year. However, computed recharge ranged from about 3 inches to about 22 inches during the 1948-67 period, depending upon the amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation. Of the average 12-14 inches of recharge, about lo-13 inches are discharged to the streams draining the area, and about l-2 inches are used by phreatophytes or by irrigated crops. Annual streamflow in the area averages about 11-12 inches per year, and because it is sustained mainly by ground water, its seasonal distribution is fairly uniform, However, streamflow varies seasonally, being highest in the spring, low in the summer, higher

Determination of base-flow characteristics at selected streamflow-gaging stations on the Mad River, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

1995-01-01

This report describes the results of a study to estimate characteristics of base flow and sustained ground-water discharge at five streamflow-gaging stations on the Mad River in Ohio. The five streamflow-gaging stations are located at Zanesfield, near Urbana, at St. Paris Pike (at Eagle City), near Springfield, and near Dayton. The median of the annual-mean base flows, determined by means of hydrograph separation, ranged from 0.64 (ft3/s)/mi2 (cubic feet per second per square mile) at Zanesfield to 0.74 (ft3/s)/mi2 at St. Paris Pike. The median percentage of annual total streamflow attributed to base flow ranged from 61.8 percent at Zanesfield to 76.1 percent near Urbana. Estimates of an upper limit (or threshold) at which base flows can be considered to be composed predominately of sustained ground-water discharge were made by constructing and analyzing base- flow-duration curves. The sustained ground-water discharges (base flows less than or equal to the estimated sustained ground-water-discharge thresholds) are assumed to originate from ground-water- flow systems that are minimally affected by seasonal climatic changes. The median sustained ground- water discharge ranged from 0.11 (ft3/s)/mi2 at Zanesfield to 0.26 (ft3/s)/mi2 at St. Paris Pike (at Eagle City) and near Springfield. The median sustained ground-water discharge, expressed as a percentage of the median annual-mean base flow, ranged from 17.2 percent at Zanesfield to 38.6 percent near Springfield.

Reconstructing pre-instrumental streamflow in Eastern Australia using a water balance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tozer, C. R.; Kiem, A. S.; Vance, T. R.; Roberts, J. L.; Curran, M. A. J.; Moy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Streamflow reconstructions based on paleoclimate proxies provide much longer records than the short instrumental period records on which water resource management plans are currently based. In Australia there is a lack of in-situ high resolution paleoclimate proxy records, but remote proxies with teleconnections to Australian climate have utility in producing streamflow reconstructions. Here we investigate, via a case study for a catchment in eastern Australia, the novel use of an Antarctic ice-core based rainfall reconstruction within a Budyko-framework to reconstruct ∼1000 years of annual streamflow. The resulting streamflow reconstruction captures interannual to decadal variability in the instrumental streamflow, validating both the use of the ice core rainfall proxy record and the Budyko-framework method. In the preinstrumental era the streamflow reconstruction shows longer wet and dry epochs and periods of streamflow variability that are higher than observed in the instrumental era. Importantly, for both the instrumental record and preinstrumental reconstructions, the wet (dry) epochs in the rainfall record are shorter (longer) in the streamflow record and this non-linearity must be considered when inferring hydroclimatic risk or historical water availability directly from rainfall proxy records alone. These insights provide a better understanding of present infrastructure vulnerability in the context of past climate variability for eastern Australia. The streamflow reconstruction presented here also provides a better understanding of the range of hydroclimatic variability possible, and therefore represents a more realistic baseline on which to quantify the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on water security.

Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

2016-04-05

About this volumeMontana StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) application that provides users with access to basin and streamflow characteristics for gaged and ungaged streams in Montana. Montana StreamStats was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Montana Departments of Transportation, Environmental Quality, and Natural Resources and Conservation. The USGS Scientific Investigations Report consists of seven independent but complementary chapters dealing with various aspects of this effort.Chapter A describes the Montana StreamStats application, the basin and streamflow datasets, and provides a brief overview of the streamflow characteristics and regression equations used in the study. Chapters B through E document the datasets, methods, and results of analyses to determine streamflow characteristics, such as peak-flow frequencies, low-flow frequencies, and monthly and annual characteristics, for USGS streamflow-gaging stations in and near Montana. The StreamStats analytical toolsets that allow users to delineate drainage basins and solve regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites in Montana are described in Chapters F and G.

The effects of selective logging on low flows and water yield in a coastal stream in northern California

Treesearch

Elizabeth T. Keppeler

1986-01-01

Abstract - Using a low flow season defined as a function of antecedent precipitation, streamflow data for a 21 year period was analyzed to determine the effects of selective tractor harvesting of second-growth Douglas-fir and redwood forest on the volume, timing, and duration of low flows and annual water yield. Significant increases in streamflow were detected for...

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

Peak-flow frequency analyses and results based on data through water year 2011 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter C in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

Chapter C of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources, to provide an update of statewide peak-flow frequency analyses and results for Montana. The purpose of this report chapter is to present peak-flow frequency analyses and results for 725 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. The 725 streamflow-gaging stations included in this study represent nearly all streamflowgaging stations in Montana (plus some from adjacent states or Canadian Provinces) that have at least 10 years of peak-flow records through water year 2011. For 29 of the 725 streamflow-gaging stations, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for both unregulated and regulated conditions. Thus, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for a total of 754 analyses. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals.

Analysing streamflow variability and water allocation for sustainable management of water resources in the semi-arid Karkheh river basin, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masih, Ilyas; Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Turral, Hugh; Karimi, Poolad

This study provides a comprehensive spatio-temporal assessment of the surface water resources of the semi-arid Karkheh basin, Iran, and consequently enables decision makers to work towards a sustainable water development in that region. The analysis is based on the examination of statistical parameters, flow duration characteristics, base flow separation and trend analysis for which data of seven key gauging stations were used for the period of 1961-2001. Additionally, basin level water accounting was carried out for the water year 1993-94. The study shows that observed daily, monthly and annual streamflows are highly variable in space and time within the basin. The streamflows have not been changed significantly at annual scale, but few months have shown significant trends, most notably a decline during May and June and an increase during December and March. The major causes were related to changes in climate, land use and reservoir operations. The study concludes that the water allocations to different sectors were lower than the totally available resources during the study period. However, looking at the high variability of streamflows, changes in climate and land use and ongoing water resources development planning, it will be extremely difficult to meet the demands of all sectors in the future, particularly during dry years.

Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948-2006

Treesearch

C. H. Luce; Z. A. Holden

2009-01-01

Much of the discussion on climate change and water in the western United States centers on decreased snowpack and earlier spring runoff. Although increasing variability in annual flows has been noted, the nature of those changes is largely unexplored. We tested for trends in the distribution of annual runoff using quantile regression at 43 gages in the Pacific...

Influence of groundwater pumping on streamflow restoration following upstream dam removal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, J.; Essaid, H.

2007-01-01

We compared streamflow in basins under the combined impacts of an upland dam and groundwater pumping withdrawals, by examining streamflow in the presence and absence of each impact. As a qualitative analysis, inter-watersbed streamflow comparisons were performed for several rivers flowing into the east side of the Central Valley, CA. Results suggest that, in the absence of upland dams supporting large reservoirs, some reaches of these rivers might develop ephemeral streamflow in late summer. As a quantitative analysis, we conducted a series of streamflow/ groundwater simulations (using MODFLOW-2000 plus the streamflow routing package, SFR1) for a representative hypothetical watershed, with an upland dam and groundwater pumping in the downstream basin, under humid, semi-arid, and and conditions. As a result of including the impact of groundwater pumping, post-dam removal simulated streamflow was significantly less than natural streamflow. The model predicts extensive ephemeral conditions in the basin during September for both the arid and semi-arid cases. The model predicts continued perennial conditions in the humid case, but spatially weighted, average streamflow of only 71% of natural September streamflow, as a result of continued pumping after dam removal.

Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

2012-01-01

Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios. Consequently, a better understanding of the relationships among summer streamflow, precipitation, snowmelt, elevation, and geology can help water managers predict the response of regional summer streamflow to global warming.

Regional Patterns and Spatial Clusters of Nonstationarities in Annual Peak Instantaneous Streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

Information about hydrologic changes resulting from changes in climate, land use, and land cover is a necessity planning and design or water resources infrastructure. The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) evaluated and selected 12 methods to detect abrupt and slowly varying nonstationarities in records of maximum peak annual flows. They deployed a publicly available tool[1]in 2016 and a guidance document in 2017 to support identification of nonstationarities in a reproducible manner using a robust statistical framework. This statistical framework has now been applied to streamflow records across the continental United States to explore the presence of regional patterns and spatial clusters of nonstationarities in peak annual flow. Incorporating this geographic dimension into the detection of nonstationarities provides valuable insight for the process of attribution of these significant changes. This poster summarizes the methods used and provides the results of the regional analysis. [1] Available here - http://www.corpsclimate.us/ptcih.cfm

Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Streamflow in Gipuzkoa (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erro, J.; López, J. J.

2012-04-01

Extreme streamflow events have been an important cause of recent flooding in Gipuzkoa, and any change in the magnitude of such events may have severe impacts upon urban structures such as dams, urban drainage systems and flood defences, and cause failures to occur. So a regional frequency analysis of annual maximum streamflow was developed for Gipuzkoa, using the well known L-moments approach together with the index-flood procedure, and following the four steps that characterize it: initial screening of the data, identification of homogeneous regions, choice of the appropriate frequency distribution and estimation of quantiles for different return periods. The preliminary study, completed in 2009, was based on the observations recorded at 22 stations distributed throughout the area. A primary filtering of the data revealed the absence of jumps, inconsistencies and changes in trends within the series, and the discordancy measures showed that none of the sites used in the analysis had to be considered discordant with the others. Regionalization was performed by cluster analysis, grouping the stations according to eight physical site characteristics: latitude, longitude, drainage basin area, elevation, main channel length of the basin, slope, annual mean rainfall and annual maximum rainfall. It resulted in two groups - one cluster with the 18 sites of small-medium basin area, and a second cluster with the 4 remaining sites of major basin area - in which the homogeneity criteria were tested and satisfied. However, the short lenght of the series together with the introduction of the observations of 2010 and the inclusion of a historic extreme streamflow event occurred in northern Spain in November 2011, completely changed the results. With this consideration and adjustment, all Gipuzkoa could be treated as a homogeneus region. The goodness-of-fit measures indicated that Generalized Logistic (GLO) is the only suitable distribution to characterize Gipuzkoa. Using the regional L-moment algorithm, quantiles associated with return periods of interest were estimated, and Monte Carlo simulation was used to compute RMSE, bias and error bounds for the estimates.

Accuracy of selected techniques for estimating ice-affected streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.

1991-01-01

This paper compares the accuracy of selected techniques for estimating streamflow during ice-affected periods. The techniques are classified into two categories - subjective and analytical - depending on the degree of judgment required. Discharge measurements have been made at three streamflow-gauging sites in Iowa during the 1987-88 winter and used to established a baseline streamflow record for each site. Using data based on a simulated six-week field-tip schedule, selected techniques are used to estimate discharge during the ice-affected periods. For the subjective techniques, three hydrographers have independently compiled each record. Three measures of performance are used to compare the estimated streamflow records with the baseline streamflow records: the average discharge for the ice-affected period, and the mean and standard deviation of the daily errors. Based on average ranks for three performance measures and the three sites, the analytical and subjective techniques are essentially comparable. For two of the three sites, Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance detects significant differences among the three hydrographers for the subjective methods, indicating that the subjective techniques are less consistent than the analytical techniques. The results suggest analytical techniques may be viable tools for estimating discharge during periods of ice effect, and should be developed further and evaluated for sites across the United States.

Decadal-scale export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment from the Susquehanna River basin, USA: Analysis and synthesis of temporal and spatial patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, Qian; Ball, William P; Moyer, Douglas L

2016-09-01

The export of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) is a long-standing management concern for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of nutrient and sediment loads over the last three decades at multiple locations in the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), Chesapeake's largest tributary watershed. Sediment and nutrient riverine loadings, including both dissolved and particulate fractions, have generally declined at all sites upstream of Conowingo Dam (non-tidal SRB outlet). Period-of-record declines in riverine yield are generally smaller than those in source input, suggesting the possibility of legacy contributions. Consistent with other watershed studies, these results reinforce the importance of considering lag time between the implementation of management actions and achievement of river quality improvement. Whereas flow-normalized loadings for particulate species have increased recently below Conowingo Reservoir, those for upstream sites have declined, thus substantiating conclusions from prior studies about decreased reservoir trapping efficiency. In regard to streamflow effects, statistically significant log-linear relationships between annual streamflow and annual constituent load suggest the dominance of hydrological control on the inter-annual variability of constituent export. Concentration-discharge relationships revealed general chemostasis and mobilization effects for dissolved and particulate species, respectively, both suggesting transport-limitation conditions. In addition to affecting annual export rates, streamflow has also modulated the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, as reflected by its negative correlations with dissolved P/total P, dissolved N/total N, particulate P/SS, and total N/total P ratios. For land-use effects, period-of-record median annual yields of N, P, and SS all correlate positively with the area fraction of non-forested land but negatively with that of forested land under all hydrological conditions. Overall, this work has informed understanding with respect to four major factors affecting constituent export (i.e., source input, reservoir modulation, streamflow, and land use) and demonstrated the value of long-term river monitoring. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

August median streamflow on ungaged streams in Eastern Coastal Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2004-01-01

Methods for estimating August median streamflow were developed for ungaged, unregulated streams in eastern coastal Maine. The methods apply to streams with drainage areas ranging in size from 0.04 to 73.2 square miles and fraction of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer ranging from 0 to 71 percent. The equations were developed with data from three long-term (greater than or equal to 10 years of record) continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, 23 partial-record streamflow- gaging stations, and 5 short-term (less than 10 years of record) continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations. A mathematical technique for estimating a standard low-flow statistic, August median streamflow, at partial-record streamflow-gaging stations and short-term continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations was applied by relating base-flow measurements at these stations to concurrent daily streamflows at nearby long-term continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (index stations). Generalized least-squares regression analysis (GLS) was used to relate estimates of August median streamflow at streamflow-gaging stations to basin characteristics at these same stations to develop equations that can be applied to estimate August median streamflow on ungaged streams. GLS accounts for different periods of record at the gaging stations and the cross correlation of concurrent streamflows among gaging stations. Thirty-one stations were used for the final regression equations. Two basin characteristics?drainage area and fraction of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer?are used in the calculated regression equation to estimate August median streamflow for ungaged streams. The equation has an average standard error of prediction from -27 to 38 percent. A one-variable equation uses only drainage area to estimate August median streamflow when less accuracy is acceptable. This equation has an average standard error of prediction from -30 to 43 percent. Model error is larger than sampling error for both equations, indicating that additional or improved estimates of basin characteristics could be important to improved estimates of low-flow statistics. Weighted estimates of August median streamflow at partial- record or continuous-record gaging stations range from 0.003 to 31.0 cubic feet per second or from 0.1 to 0.6 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow on ungaged streams in eastern coastal Maine, within the range of acceptable explanatory variables, range from 0.003 to 45 cubic feet per second or 0.1 to 0.6 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow per square mile of drainage area generally increase as drainage area and fraction of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer increase.

Predicting alpine headwater stream intermittency: a case study in the northern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Thomas R.; Blasch, Kyle W.

2015-01-01

This investigation used climatic, geological, and environmental data coupled with observational stream intermittency data to predict alpine headwater stream intermittency. Prediction was made using a random forest classification model. Results showed that the most important variables in the prediction model were snowpack persistence, represented by average snow extent from March through July, mean annual mean monthly minimum temperature, and surface geology types. For stream catchments with intermittent headwater streams, snowpack, on average, persisted until early June, whereas for stream catchments with perennial headwater streams, snowpack, on average, persisted until early July. Additionally, on average, stream catchments with intermittent headwater streams were about 0.7 °C warmer than stream catchments with perennial headwater streams. Finally, headwater stream catchments primarily underlain by coarse, permeable sediment are significantly more likely to have intermittent headwater streams than those primarily underlain by impermeable bedrock. Comparison of the predicted streamflow classification with observed stream status indicated a four percent classification error for first-order streams and a 21 percent classification error for all stream orders in the study area.

Flood of June 22-24, 2006, in North-Central Ohio, With Emphasis on the Cuyahoga River Near Independence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, James M.; Ebner, Andrew D.; Koltun, G.F.; Astifan, Brian M.

2007-01-01

Heavy rains caused severe flooding on June 22-24, 2006, and damaged approximately 4,580 homes and 48 businesses in Cuyahoga County. Damage estimates in Cuyahoga County for the two days of flooding exceed $47 million; statewide damage estimates exceed $150 million. Six counties (Cuyahoga, Erie, Huron, Lucas, Sandusky, and Stark) in northeast Ohio were declared Federal disaster areas. One death, in Lorain County, was attributed to the flooding. The peak streamflow of 25,400 cubic feet per second and corresponding peak gage height of 23.29 feet were the highest recorded at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station Cuyahoga River at Independence (04208000) since the gaging station began operation in 1922, exceeding the previous peak streamflow of 24,800 cubic feet per second that occurred on January 22, 1959. An indirect calculation of the peak streamflow was made by use of a step-backwater model because all roads leading to the gaging station were inundated during the flood and field crews could not reach the station to make a direct measurement. Because of a statistically significant and persistent positive trend in the annual-peak-streamflow time series for the Cuyahoga River at Independence, a method was developed and applied to detrend the annual-peak-streamflow time series prior to the traditional log-Pearson Type III flood-frequency analysis. Based on this analysis, the recurrence interval of the computed peak streamflow was estimated to be slightly less than 100 years. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, and recurrence-interval estimates for the June 22-24, 2006, flood are tabulated for the Cuyahoga River at Independence and 10 other USGS gaging stations in north-central Ohio. Because flooding along the Cuyahoga River near Independence and Valley View was particularly severe, a study was done to document the peak water-surface profile during the flood from approximately 2 miles downstream from the USGS streamflow-gaging station at Independence to approximately 2 miles upstream from the gaging station. High-water marks were identified and flagged in the field. Third-order-accuracy surveys were used to determine elevations of the high-water marks, and the data were tabulated and plotted.

CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

2016-09-01

Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD-based forecasting, and results showed that removing high-frequency component is an effective measure to improve forecasting precision and is suggested for use with the CEREF model for better performance. Finally, the study concluded that the CEREF model can be used to forecast non-stationary annual streamflow change as a co-evolution of hydrologic and social systems with better accuracy. Also, the modification about removing high-frequency can further improve the performance of the CEREF model. It should be noted that the CEREF model is beneficial for data-driven hydrologic forecasting in complex socio-hydrologic systems, and as a simple data-driven socio-hydrologic forecasting model, deserves more attention.

Preliminary Assessment of the Hydrogeology and Groundwater Availability in the Metamorphic and Siliciclastic Fractured-Rock Aquifer Systems of Warren County, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelms, David L.; Moberg, Roger M.

2010-01-01

Expanding development and the prolonged drought from 1999 to 2002 drew attention to the quantity and sustainability of the groundwater resources in Warren County, Virginia. The groundwater flow systems of the county are complex and are controlled by the extremely folded and faulted geology that underlies the county. A study was conducted between May 2002 and October 2008 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Warren County, Virginia, to describe the hydrogeology of the metamorphic and siliciclastic fractured-rock aquifers and groundwater availability in the county and to establish a long-term water monitoring network. The study area encompasses approximately 170 square miles and includes the metamorphic rocks of the Blue Ridge Physiographic Province and siliciclastic rocks of the Great Valley section of the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province. Well depths tend to be shallowest in the siliciclastic rock unit (predominantly in the Martinsburg Formation) where 75 percent of the wells are less than 200 feet deep. Median depths to bedrock are generally less than 40 feet across the county and vary in response to the presence of surficial deposits, faults, siliciclastic rock type, and topographic setting. Water-bearing zones are generally within 200 feet of land surface; median depths, however, are slightly deeper for the hydrogeologic units of the Blue Ridge Province than for those of the Great Valley section of the county. Median well yields for the different rock units generally range from 10 to 20 gallons per minute. High-yielding wells tend to cluster along faults, along the eastern contact of the Martinsburg Formation, and within potential lineament zones. Specific capacity is relatively low and ranges from 0.003 to 1.43 gallons per minute per foot with median values from 0.12 to 0.24 gallon per minute per foot. Transmissivity values derived from specific capacity data range over four orders of magnitude from 0.6 to 380 feet squared per day. Estimates of effective groundwater recharge from 2001 to 2007 ranged from 2.4 to 29.4 inches per year in the Gooney Run, Manassas Run, and Crooked Run Basins, with averages of 15.3, 14.2, and 5.3 inches per year, respectively. Base flow accounted for between 57 and 86 percent of mean streamflow in the Gooney Run and Manassas Run Basins and averaged about 70 percent in these Blue Ridge Province basins. In the siliciclastic rock-dominated Crooked Run Basin of the Great Valley, base flow accounted for between 33 and 65 percent of mean streamflow and averaged about 54 percent. The high base-flow index values (percentage of streamflow from base flow) in these basins indicate that groundwater is the dominant source of streamflow during wet and drought conditions. About 50 percent of the precipitation that fell on the Blue Ridge basins from 2001 to 2007 was removed by evapotranspiration, and between 33 and 36 percent of the precipitation reached the water table as effective recharge. Nearly 76 percent of the precipitation was removed by evapotranspiration in the Crooked Run Basin, and effective recharge averaged about 12 percent of precipitation between 2001 and 2007. Average values of runoff in all three basins were less than 15 percent of precipitation. Groundwater flow systems in the county are extremely vulnerable to current climatic conditions. Successive years of below-average effective recharge cause declines in water levels, spring discharges, and streamflows. However, these systems can recover quickly because effective recharge increases with increasing precipitation. Lack of precipitation, especially snow, during the critical recharge period (January-April) can have an effect on the amount of recharge to the groundwater system and eventual stream base flow. Estimated values of annual mean base flow have approached and have been below the average regression-derived recharge rates during a period classified as having above-average precipitation. This relation is indicative

Predicting changes in hydrologic retention in an evolving semi-arid alluvial stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, J.W.; Conklin, M.H.; Koelsch, R.S.

2003-01-01

Hydrologic retention of solutes in hyporheic zones or other slowly moving waters of natural channels is thought to be a significant control on biogeochemical cycling and ecology of streams. To learn more about factors affecting hydrologic retention, we repeated stream-tracer injections for 5 years in a semi-arid alluvial stream (Pinal Creek, Ariz.) during a period when streamflow was decreasing, channel width increasing, and coverage of aquatic macrophytes expanding. Average stream velocity at Pinal Creek decreased from 0.8 to 0.2 m/s, average stream depth decreased from 0.09 to 0.04 m, and average channel width expanded from 3 to 13 m. Modeling of tracer experiments indicated that the hydrologic retention factor (Rh), a measure of the average time that solute spends in storage per unit length of downstream transport, increased from 0.02 to 8 s/m. At the same time the ratio of cross-sectional area of storage zones to main channel cross-sectional area (As/A) increased from 0.2 to 0.8 m2/m2, and average water residence time in storage zones (ts) increased from 5 to 24 min. Compared with published data from four other streams in the US, Pinal Creek experienced the greatest change in hydrologic retention for a given change in streamflow. The other streams differed from Pinal Creek in that they experienced a change in streamflow between tracer experiments without substantial geomorphic or vegetative adjustments. As a result, a regression of hydrologic retention on streamflow developed for the other streams underpredicted the measured increases in hydrologic retention at Pinal Creek. The increase in hydrologic retention at Pinal Creek was more accurately predicted when measurements of the Darcy-Weisbach friction factor were used (either alone or in addition to streamflow) as a predictor variable. We conclude that relatively simple measurements of channel friction are useful for predicting the response of hydrologic retention in streams to major adjustments in channel morphology as well as changes in streamflow. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Julie A. Vano,; Bradley Udall,; Cayan, Daniel; Jonathan T Overpeck,; Brekke, Levi D.; Das, Tapash; Hartmann, Holly C.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Hoerling, Martin P; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morino, Kiyomi; Webb, Robert S.; Werner, Kevin; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2014-01-01

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

Development of a new IHA method for impact assessment of climate change on flow regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tao; Cui, Tong; Xu, Chong-Yu; Ciais, Philippe; Shi, Pengfei

2017-09-01

The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) based on 33 parameters in five dimensions (flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and change rate) have been widely used in evaluation of hydrologic alteration in river systems. Yet, inter-correlation seriously exists amongst those parameters, therefore constantly underestimates or overestimates actual hydrological changes. Toward the end, a new method (Representative-IHA, RIHA) is developed by removing repetitions based on Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) algorithm. RIHA is testified in evaluating effects of future climate change on hydro-ecology in the Niger River of Africa. Future flows are projected using three watershed hydrological models forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Results show that: (1) RIHA is able to eliminate self-correlations amongst IHA indicators and identify the dominant characteristics of hydrological alteration in the Upper Niger River, (2) March streamflow, September streamflow, December streamflow, 30-day annual maximum, low pluses duration and fall rates tends to increase over the period 2010-2099, while July streamflow and 90-day annual minimum streamflow shows decrease, (3) the Niger River will undergo moderate flow alteration under RCP8.5 in 2050s and 2080s and low alteration other scenarios, (4) future flow alteration may induce increase water temperatures, reduction dissolved oxygen and food resources. Consequently, aquatic biodiversity and fish community of Upper Niger River would become more vulnerable in the future. The new method enables more scientific evaluation for multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration under the context of climate change.

Simulated effects of proposed reservoir-development alternatives on streamflow quantity in the White River, Colorado and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard; Ellis, S.R.

1984-01-01

Numerous reservoirs have been proposed for the White River basin in Colorado and Utah, primarily to provide water for oil-shale development. A multireservoir-flow model was used to simulate the effects of streamflow withdrawal at four of the proposed reservoirs using historical streamflow data from the 1932-81 water years. The proposed reservoirs considered in the study were Avery, Powell Park, Taylor Draw, and White River Reservoirs; construction of Taylor Draw Dam was completed during the study. Annual streamflow depletions from the White River ranging from about 93,000 to 226,000 acre-feet were simulated for the 50 year period. Simulated streamflow throughout the year generally became smaller and more constant as streamflow throughout the year generally became smaller and more constant as streamflow depletion increased. Minimum streamflow requirements would not have been met for a maximum of 13 years and water-use requirements associated with the proposed reservoirs would not have been met for a maximum of 3 years. The current water-use pattern, which depletes about 40,000 acre-feet per year and is dominated by irrigation of hay meadows and pastureland, was maintained in the simulation. Relations between reservoir active capacity and yield applicable to the White River also were developed. These relations show that reservoir storage of about 400,000 acre-feet is the maximum practicable for the White River. (USGS)

Assessing the Impacts of Land Use Change from Cotton to Perennial Bioenergy Grasses on Hydrological Fluxes and Water Quality in a Semi-Arid Agricultural Watershed Using the APEX Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Ale, S.; Rajan, N.

2015-12-01

The semi-arid Texas High Plains (THP) region, where cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is grown in vast acreage, has the potential to grow perennial bioenergy grasses. A change in land use from cotton cropping systems to perennial grasses such as Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and Miscanthus giganteus (Miscanthus sinensis Anderss. [Poaceae]) can significantly affect regional hydrologic cycle and water quality. Assessing the impacts of this potential land use change on hydrology and water quality enables the environmental assessment of feasibility to grow perennial grasses in this region to meet the U.S. national bioenergy target of 2022. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model was used in this study to assess the impacts of replacing cotton with switchgrass and Miscanthus on water and nitrogen balances in the upstream subwatershed of the Double Mountain Fork Brazos watershed in the THP, which contains 52% cotton land use. The APEX model was initially calibrated against observed streamflow and crop yield data. Since observed data on nitrogen loads in streamflow was not available for this subwatershed, we calibrated the APEX model against the SWAT-simulated nitrogen loads at the outlet of this subwatershed, which were obtained in a parallel study. The calibrated APEX model was used to simulate the impacts of land use change from cotton to Miscanthus and switchgrass on surface and subsurface water and nitrogen balances. Preliminary results revealed that the average (1994-2009) annual surface runoff decreased by 84% and 66% under the irrigated and dryland switchgrass scenarios compared to the baseline scenarios. Average annual percolation increased by 106% and 57% under the irrigated and dryland switchgrass scenarios relative to the baseline scenarios. Preliminary results also indicated Miscanthus and switchgrass appeared to be superior to cotton in terms of better water conservation and water quality, and minimum crop management requirements.

Summary of groundwater-recharge estimates for Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuart O. Reese,; Risser, Dennis W.

2010-01-01

Groundwater recharge is water that infiltrates through the subsurface to the zone of saturation beneath the water table. Because recharge is a difficult parameter to quantify, it is typically estimated from measurements of other parameters like streamflow and precipitation. This report provides a general overview of processes affecting recharge in Pennsylvania and presents estimates of recharge rates from studies at various scales.The most common method for estimating recharge in Pennsylvania has been to estimate base flow from measurements of streamflow and assume that base flow (expressed in inches over the basin) approximates recharge. Statewide estimates of mean annual groundwater recharge were developed by relating base flow to basin characteristics of HUC10 watersheds (a fifth-level classification that uses 10 digits to define unique hydrologic units) using a regression equation. The regression analysis indicated that mean annual precipitation, average daily maximum temperature, percent of sand in soil, percent of carbonate rock in the watershed, and average stream-channel slope were significant factors in the explaining the variability of groundwater recharge across the Commonwealth.Several maps are included in this report to illustrate the principal factors affecting recharge and provide additional information about the spatial distribution of recharge in Pennsylvania. The maps portray the patterns of precipitation, temperature, prevailing winds across Pennsylvania’s varied physiography; illustrate the error associated with recharge estimates; and show the spatial variability of recharge as a percent of precipitation. National, statewide, regional, and local values of recharge, based on numerous studies, are compiled to allow comparison of estimates from various sources. Together these plates provide a synopsis of groundwater-recharge estimations and factors in Pennsylvania.Areas that receive the most recharge are typically those that get the most rainfall, have favorable surface conditions for infiltration, and are less susceptible to the influences of high temperatures, and thus, evapotranspiration. Areas that have less recharge in Pennsylvania are typically those with less precipitation, less permeable soils, and higher temperatures that are conducive to greater rates of evapotranspiration.

Effect of Tree-to-Shrub Type Conversion in Lower Montane Forests of the Sierra Nevada (USA) on Streamflow

PubMed Central

Tague, Christina L.; Moritz, Max A.

2016-01-01

Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm), with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada. PMID:27575592

Effect of Tree-to-Shrub Type Conversion in Lower Montane Forests of the Sierra Nevada (USA) on Streamflow.

PubMed

Bart, Ryan R; Tague, Christina L; Moritz, Max A

2016-01-01

Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm), with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada.

Assimilative capacity of the Waccamaw River and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, 1989-92

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drewes, P.A.; Conrads, P.A.

1995-01-01

The assimilative capacities of selected reaches of the Waccamaw River and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, were determined using results from water-quality simulations by the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model. The study area included tidally influenced sections of the Waccamaw River, the Pee Dee River, Bull Creek, and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway. Hydrodynamic data for the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model were simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey BRANCH one-dimensional unsteady- flow model. Assimilative capacities were determined for four locations using low-, medium-, and high- flow conditions and the average dissolved-oxygen concentration for a 7-day period. Results indicated that for the Waccamaw River near Conway, the ultimate oxygen demand is 370 to 6,740 pounds per day for 7-day average streamflows of 17 to 1,500 cubic feet per second. For the Waccamaw River at Bucksport, the ultimate oxygen demand is 580 to 7,300 pounds per day for 7-day average streamflows of 62 to 1,180 cubic feet per second. For the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway near North Myrtle Beach, simulations indicate ultimate oxygen demand is 5,100 to 10,000 pounds per day for 7-day average streamflows of 110 to 465 cubic feet per second. The ultimate oxygen demand for the Waccamaw River near Murrells Inlet is 11,000 to 230,000 pounds per day for 7-day average streamflows of 2,240 to 13,700 cubic feet per second.

A Case Study of Differing Effects of Urbanization on Streamflow From Two Proximate Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandes, D.; Lott, F.

2007-12-01

The effects of urbanization on streamflow from two proximate watersheds (Little Lehigh Creek (LLC) and Monocacy Creek (MC)) are investigated. Despite close similarities in rainfall, population growth, land use, imperviousness, and geology of the watersheds, streamflows at the LLC gage have changed markedly over the past 50 years, while those at the MC gage have not. In LLC, there are significant increasing trends in annual stormflow volume, annual maximum flow, and flashiness, but there are no significant trends in these measures in MC. Neither stream shows significant trends in annual baseflow volume or low flow. It appears that the distinct difference in response to urbanization of these two streams can be ascribed to differences in 1) watershed geomorphology, 2) spatial distribution, composition, and infiltration characteristics of carbonate bedrock, and 3) the spatial pattern of land development in each watershed with respect to the gage location. In regards to geomorphology, there is a steeper main channel and narrower floodplains in LLC than in MC. Carbonate soil and bedrock (primarily dolostone) are distributed throughout much of LLC watershed but only in the lower half of MC watershed; however the lower MC watershed (primarily limestone) has much more abundant sinkholes and karst features than in the LLC watershed. Finally, residential and commercial development is concentrated in the upper two thirds of the LLC watershed, where travel times are such that these areas contribute to the peak flows measured at the gage. Development is concentrated in the lower third of the MC watershed, where it has had less effect on peak flows at the gage. Overall, the study indicates that relatively subtle differences between watershed characteristics and development patterns can result in significant differences in runoff and in how streamflow regimes may change in response to urbanization.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating hydrologic responses to future urbanization and climate changes in a mixed-use midwestern watershed.

PubMed

Sunde, Michael G; He, Hong S; Hubbart, Jason A; Urban, Michael A

2018-08-15

Future urban development and climatic changes are likely to affect hydrologic regimes in many watersheds. Quantifying potential water regime changes caused by these stressors is therefore crucial for enabling decision makers to develop viable environmental management strategies. This study presents an approach that integrates mid-21st century impervious surface growth estimates derived from the Imperviousness Change Analysis Tool with downscaled climate model projections and a hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool to characterize potential water regime changes in a mixed-use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results for the climate change only scenario showed annual streamflow and runoff decreases (-10.7% and -9.2%) and evapotranspiration increases (+6.8%), while results from the urbanization only scenario showed streamflow and runoff increases (+3.8% and +9.3%) and evapotranspiration decreases (-2.4%). Results for the combined impacts scenario suggested that climatic changes could have a larger impact than urbanization on annual streamflow, (overall decrease of -6.1%), and could largely negate surface runoff increases caused by urbanization. For the same scenario, climatic changes exerted a stronger influence on annual evapotranspiration than urbanization (+3.9%). Seasonal results indicated that the relative influences of urbanization and climatic changes vary seasonally. Climatic changes most greatly influenced streamflow and runoff during winter and summer, and evapotranspiration during summer. During some seasons the directional change for hydrologic processes matched for both stressors. This work presented a practicable approach for investigating the relative influences of mid-21st century urbanization and climatic changes on the hydrology of a representative mixed-use watershed, adding to a limited body of research on this topic. This was done using a transferrable approach that can be adapted for watersheds in other regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ground water occurrence and contributions to streamflow in an alpine catchment, Colorado Front Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, D.W.; Schrott, L.; Webb, R.; Campbell, D.H.; Torizzo, A.O.; Dornblaser, M.

2003-01-01

Ground water occurrence, movement, and its contribution to streamflow were investigated in Loch Vale, an alpine catchment in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Hydrogeomorphologic mapping, seismic refraction measurements, and porosity and permeability estimates indicate that talus slopes are the primary ground water reservoir, with a maximum storage capacity that is equal to, or greater than, total annual discharge from the basin (5.4 ± 0.8 × 106 m3). Although snowmelt and glacial melt provide the majority of annual water flux to the basin, tracer tests and gauging along a stream transect indicate that ground water flowing from talus can account for ≥75% of streamflow during storms and the winter base flow period. The discharge response of talus springs to storms and snowmelt reflects rapid transmittal of water through coarse debris at the talus surface and slower release of water from finer-grained sediments at depth.Ice stored in permafrost (including rock glaciers) is the second largest ground water reservoir in Loch Vale; it represents a significant, but seldom recognized, ground water reservoir in alpine terrain. Mean annual air temperatures are sufficiently cold to support permafrost above 3460 m; however, air temperatures have increased 1.1° to 1.4°C since the early 1990s, consistent with long-term (1976–2000) increases in air temperature measured at other high-elevation sites in the Front Range, European Alps, and Peruvian Andes. If other climatic factors remain constant, the increase in air temperatures at Loch Vale is sufficient to increase the lower elevational limit of permafrost by 150 to 190 m. Although this could cause a short-term increase in streamflow, it may ultimately result in decreased flow in the future.

DESIGN STREAM FLOWS BASED ON HARMONIC MEANS.

EPA Science Inventory

Design streamflows are frequently used in water quality studies to provide adequate protection against pollutant exposure periods of a given duration. By analyzing the effect that simple streamflow dilution has on x-day average exposure levels of a pollutant, it appears that the ...

Detection of Hydrologic Response at the River Basin Scale Caused by Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCormick, B. C.; Eshleman, K. N.; Griffith, J. L.; Townsend, P. A.

2008-05-01

The 187.5 km2 Georges Creek watershed, located on the Appalachian Plateau in western Maryland (USA), has experienced significant land use change due to surface mining of bituminous coal. We estimate that over 17% of the Georges Creek watershed is being actively surface-mined or was mined and reclaimed previously. The adjacent Savage River watershed (127.2 km2) is completely unaffected by surface mining. Both watersheds have long (>60 year) streamflow records maintained by USGS that were analyzed as part of this project, using Savage River as a control. Temporal analysis of the moments of the flood frequency distributions using a moving-window technique indicated that climatic variability affected both watersheds equally. Normalizing annual maximum flows by antecedent streamflow and causative precipitation allowed trends in the Georges Creek watershed flooding response to become more evident. An analysis of sixteen contemporary warm season storm events based on hourly streamflow and NEXRAD Stage III derived precipitation data provided clear evidence of differences in watershed response to rainfall. Georges Creek events (normalized by basin area and precipitation) are, on average, characterized by slightly greater (7%) peak runoff and shorter (3 hr) centroid lags than Savage River, even though the opposite was expected considering relative basin areas. These differences in stormflow response are most likely attributable to differences in current land use in the basins, particularly the large area of reclaimed minelands in Georges Creek. Interestingly, we found that Georges Creek events produce, on average, only 2/3 of the stormflow volume as Savage River, apparently due to infiltration of water into abandoned deep mine workings and an associated trans-basin drainage system that dates to the early 20th century. Long-term trend analysis at the river basin scale using empirical hydrologic methods is thus complicated by climatic variability and the legacy of deep mining in this system.

Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment

DOE PAGES

Pasha, M. Fayzul K.; Yeasmin, Dilruba; Saetern, Sen; ...

2016-03-30

Hydraulic head and mean annual streamflow, two main input parameters in hydropower resource assessment, are not measured at every point along the stream. Translation and interpolation are used to derive these parameters, resulting in uncertainties. This study estimates the uncertainties and their effects on model output parameters: the total potential power and the number of potential locations (stream-reach). These parameters are quantified through Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) linking with a geospatial merit matrix based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) Model. The methodology is applied to flat, mild, and steep terrains. Results show that the uncertainty associated with the hydraulic head ismore » within 20% for mild and steep terrains, and the uncertainty associated with streamflow is around 16% for all three terrains. Output uncertainty increases as input uncertainty increases. However, output uncertainty is around 10% to 20% of the input uncertainty, demonstrating the robustness of the GMM-HRA model. Hydraulic head is more sensitive to output parameters in steep terrain than in flat and mild terrains. Furthermore, mean annual streamflow is more sensitive to output parameters in flat terrain.« less

Water resources data for California water year 1994. Volume 1. Southern Great Basin from Mexican border to Mono Lake basin, and Pacific Slope basins from Tijuana River to Santa Maria river. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1993-30 September 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hayes, P.D.; Agajanian, J.A.; Rockwell, G.L.

1995-03-01

Water resources data for the 1994 water year for California consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage and contents in lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality in wells. Volume 1 contains (1) discharge records for 143 streamflow-gaging stations, 15 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations; (2) stage and contents records for 20 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water quality records for 19 streamflow-gaging stations and 2 partial-record stations; and (4) precipitation records for 8 stations.

Compilation of water resources development and hydrologic data of Saipan, Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van der Brug, Otto

1985-01-01

Saipan is the largest island of the Northern Mariana Islands, a chain of 14 islands north of Guam. Saipan comprises one third of the land area of the islands. No long-term rainfall record is available at any location, but some rainfall records are for periods up to 16 years, some of which began in 1901. Average annual rainfall for the island is 81 inches, with the southern end receiving about 10 inches less annually than the rest of the island. The amount of rainfall which runs off in northeast Saipan ranges from 23 to 64 percent and averages about 40 percent. Runoff on the rest of the island is from springs or occurs only during heavy rainfall. Surface-water development appears impractical. Ground water is the main source of water for the island and production was almost 4 million gallons per day in 1982. However, chloride concentration in ground water exceeds 1,000 milligrams per liter in many locations. The average chloride concentration of the domestic water stays near the maximum permissible level (600 milligrams per liter). This report summarizes the history of the water-resources development and presents all available hydrologic data, including rainfall records since 1901, streamflow records since 1968, and drilling logs, pumping tests, chemical analyses, and production figures from 180 testholes and wells drilled on Saipan. (USGS)

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Streamflow statistics for development of water rights claims for the Jarbidge Wild and Scenic River, Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness, Idaho, 2013-14: a supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5212

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), estimated streamflow statistics for stream segments designated “Wild,” “Scenic,” or “Recreational” under the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System in the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness in southwestern Idaho. The streamflow statistics were used by the BLM to develop and file a draft, federal reserved water right claim to protect federally designated “outstanding remarkable values” in the Jarbidge River. The BLM determined that the daily mean streamflow equaled or exceeded 20, 50, and 80 percent of the time during bimonthly periods (two periods per month) and the bankfull (66.7-percent annual exceedance probability) streamflow are important thresholds for maintaining outstanding remarkable values. Although streamflow statistics for the Jarbidge River below Jarbidge, Nevada (USGS 13162225) were published previously in 2013 and used for the draft water right claim, the BLM and USGS have since recognized the need to refine streamflow statistics given the approximate 40 river mile distance and intervening tributaries between the original point of estimation (USGS 13162225) and at the mouth of the Jarbidge River, which is the downstream end of the Wild and Scenic River segment. A drainage-area-ratio method was used in 2013 to estimate bimonthly exceedance probability streamflow statistics at the mouth of the Jarbidge River based on available streamgage data on the Jarbidge and East Fork Jarbidge Rivers. The resulting bimonthly streamflow statistics were further adjusted using a scaling factor calculated from a water balance on streamflow statistics calculated for the Bruneau and East Fork Bruneau Rivers and Sheep Creek. The final, adjusted bimonthly exceedance probability and bankfull streamflow statistics compared well with available verification datasets (including discrete streamflow measurements made at the mouth of the Jarbidge River) and are considered the best available estimates for streamflow statistics in the Jarbidge Wild and Scenic River segment.

Simulation of Hydrologic-System Responses to Ground-Water Withdrawals in the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt Stream-Aquifer System, Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, Paul M.; Ostiguy, Lance J.

2007-01-01

A numerical-modeling study was done to better understand hydrologic-system responses to ground-water withdrawals in the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt (HAP) stream-aquifer system of Rhode Island. System responses were determined by use of steady-state and transient numerical ground-water-flow models. These models were initially developed in the late 1990s as part of a larger study of the stream-aquifer system. The models were modified to incorporate new data made available since the original study and to meet the objectives of this study. Changes made to the models did not result in substantial changes to simulated ground-water levels, hydrologic budgets, or streamflows compared to those calculated by the original steady-state and transient models. Responses of the hydrologic system are described primarily by changes in simulated streamflows and ground-water levels throughout the basin and by changes to flow conditions in the aquifer in three wetland areas immediately east of the Lafayette State Fish Hatchery, which lies within the Annaquatucket River Basin in the town of North Kingstown. Ground water is withdrawn from the HAP aquifer at 14 large-capacity production wells, at an industrial well, and at 3 wells operated by the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management at the fish hatchery. A fourth well has been proposed for the hatchery and an additional production well is under development by the town of North Kingstown. The primary streams of interest in the study area are the Hunt, Annaquatucket, and Pettaquamscutt Rivers and Queens Fort Brook. Total model-calculated streamflow depletions in these rivers and brook resulting from withdrawals at the production, industrial, and fish-hatchery wells pumping at average annual 2003 rates are about 4.8 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) for the Hunt River, 3.3 ft3/s for the Annaquatucket River, 0.5 ft3/s for the Pettaquamscutt River, and 0.5 ft3/s for Queens Fort Brook. The actual amount of streamflow reduction in the Annaquatucket River caused by pumping actually is less, 1.1 ft3/s, because ground water that is pumped at the fish-hatchery wells (2.2 ft3/s) is returned to the Annaquatucket River after use at the hatchery. One of the primary goals of the study was to evaluate the response of the hydrologic system to simulated withdrawals at the proposed well at the fish hatchery. Withdrawal rates at the proposed well would range from zero during April through September of each year to a maximum of 260 gallons per minute [about 0.4 million gallons per day (Mgal/d)] in March of each year. The average annual withdrawal rate at the fish hatchery resulting from the addition of the proposed well would increase by only 0.13 ft3/s, or about 5 percent of the 2003 withdrawal rate. The increased pumping rate at the hatchery would further reduce the average annual flow in Queens Fort Brook by less than 0.05 ft3/s and in the Annaquatucket River by about 0.1 ft3/s (which includes some model error). A new production well in the Annaquatucket River Basin is under development by the town of North Kingstown. A simulated pumping rate of 1.0 Mgal/d (1.6 ft3/s) at this new well resulted in additional streamflow depletions, compared to those calculated for the 2003 withdrawal conditions, of 0.8 and 0.2 ft3/s in the Annaquatucket and Pettaquamscutt Rivers, respectively. The source of water for about 30 percent of the well's pumping rate, or about 0.5 ft3/s, is derived from ground-water inflow from the Chipuxet River Basin across a natural ground-water drainage divide that separates the Annaquatucket and Chipuxet River Basins; the remaining 0.1 ft3/s of simulated pumping consists of reduced evapotranspiration from the water table. Model-calculated changes in water levels in the aquifer for the various withdrawal conditions simulated in this study indicate that ground-water-level declines caused by pumping are generally less than 5 feet (ft). However, ground-water-level declines of as

Water-quality variability and constituent transport and processes in streams of Johnson County, Kansas, using continuous monitoring and regression models, 2003-11

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rasmussen, Teresa; Gatotho, Jackline

2014-01-01

The population of Johnson County, Kansas increased by about 24 percent between 2000 and 2012, making it one of the most rapidly developing areas of Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Johnson County Stormwater Management Program, began a comprehensive study of Johnson County streams in 2002 to evaluate and monitor changes in stream quality. The purpose of this report is to describe water-quality variability and constituent transport for streams representing the five largest watersheds in Johnson County, Kansas during 2003 through 2011. The watersheds ranged in urban development from 98.3 percent urban (Indian Creek) to 16.7 percent urban (Kill Creek). Water-quality conditions are quantified among the watersheds of similar size (50.1 square miles to 65.7 square miles) using continuous, in-stream measurements, and using regression models developed from continuous and discrete data. These data are used to quantify variability in concentrations and loads during changing streamflow and seasonal conditions, describe differences among sites, and assess water quality relative to water-quality standards and stream management goals. Water quality varied relative to streamflow conditions, urbanization in the upstream watershed, and contributions from wastewater treatment facilities and storm runoff. Generally, as percent impervious surface (a measure of urbanization) increased, streamflow yield increased. Water temperature of Indian Creek, the most urban site which is also downstream from wastewater facility discharges, was higher than the other sites about 50 percent of the time, particularly during winter months. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were less than the Kansas Department of Health and Environment minimum criterion of 5 milligrams per liter about 15 percent of the time at the Indian Creek site. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were less than the criterion about 10 percent of the time at the rural Blue River and Kill Creek sites, and less than 5 percent of the time at the other sites. Low dissolved oxygen at all sites generally coincided with lowest streamflow and warmer water temperatures. Hourly dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 5 milligrams per liter were measured at all sites every year, indicating that even under normal climate conditions in non-urban watersheds such as Kill Creek, dissolved oxygen concentrations may not meet State aquatic-life criterion. Specific conductance was nearly always highest in Indian and Mill Creeks, which were the most urban streams with the largest upstream discharges from wastewater treatment facilities. The largest chloride concentrations and variability were recorded at urban sites and during winter. Each winter during the study period, chloride concentrations in the most urban site, Indian Creek, exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-recommended criterion of 230 milligrams per liter for at least 10 consecutive days. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-recommended ecoregion criterion for turbidity was exceeded 30 (Indian Creek) to 50 (Blue River) percent of the time. The highest average annual streamflow-weighted suspendedsediment concentration during the study period was in Mill Creek, which has undergone rapid development that likely contributed to higher sediment concentrations. One of the largest suspended-sediment load events in Indian Creek was recorded in early May 2007 when about 25 percent of the total annual sediment load was transported during a period of about 2.25 days. A simultaneous load event was recorded in Kill Creek, when about 75 percent of the total annual sediment load was transported. Sediment yields generally increased as percent impervious surface increased. Computed hourly total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations and yields and streamflow-weighted concentrations generally were largest in Indian and Mill Creeks. Annual percent contribution of total nitrogen in the Blue River from wastewater treatment facility discharges ranged from 19 percent in 2010 to 60 percent in 2006. Annual percent contribution of total nitrogen in Indian Creek from wastewater treatment facility discharges ranged from 35 percent in 2010 to 93 percent in 2006. The largest percent nutrient contributions from wastewater discharges coincided with the smallest annual precipitation and streamflow volume, resulting in less contribution originating from runoff. Fecal indicator bacteria Escherichia coli density at the urban Indian Creek site was usually the largest of the five monitoring sites, with an annual median density that consistently exceeded the State primary contact criterion value but was less than the secondary contact criterion. Less than 1 percent of the total annual bacteria load in the Blue River and Indian Creek originated from wastewater discharges, except during 2006 when about 6 percent of the Indian Creek load originated from wastewater. Continuous water-quality monitoring provides a foundation for comprehensive evaluation and understanding of variability and loading characteristics in streams in Johnson County. Because several directly measured parameters are strongly correlated with particular constituents of interest, regression models provide a valuable tool for evaluating variability and loading on the basis of computed continuous data. Continuous data are particularly useful for characterizing nonpoint-source contributions from stormwater runoff. Transmission of continuous data in real-time makes it possible to rapidly detect and respond to potential environmental concerns. As monitoring technologies continue to improve, so does the ability to monitor additional constituents of interest, with smaller measurement error, and at lower operational cost. Continuous water-quality data including model information and computed concentrations and loads during the study period are available at http://nrtwq.usgs.gov/ks/.

Relation of nitrate concentrations to baseflow in the Raccoon River, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Lutz, D.S.

2004-01-01

Excessive nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) export from the Raccoon River in west central Iowa is an environmental concern to downstream receptors. The 1972 to 2000 record of daily streamflow and the results from 981 nitrate measurements were examined to describe the relation of nitrate to streamflow in the Raccoon River. No long term trends in streamflow and nitrate concentrations were noted in the 28-year record. Strong seasonal patterns were evident in nitrate concentrations, with higher concentrations occurring in spring and fall. Nitrate concentrations were linearly related to streamflow at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. At all time scales evaluated, the relation was improved when baseflow was used as the discharge variable instead of total streamflow. Nitrate concentrations were found to be highly stratified according to flow, but there was little relation of nitrate to streamflow within each flow range. Simple linear regression models developed to predict monthly mean nitrate concentrations explained as much as 76 percent of the variability in the monthly nitrate concentration data for 2001. Extrapolation of current nitrate baseflow relations to historical conditions in the Raccoon River revealed that increasing baseflow over the 20th century could account for a measurable increase in nitrate concentrations.

Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

2017-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

Estimates of streamflow characteristics for selected small streams, Baker River basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, John R.

1987-01-01

Regression equations were used to estimate streamflow characteristics at eight ungaged sites on small streams in the Baker River basin in the North Cascade Mountains, Washington, that could be suitable for run-of-the-river hydropower development. The regression equations were obtained by relating known streamflow characteristics at 25 gaging stations in nearby basins to several physical and climatic variables that could be easily measured in gaged or ungaged basins. The known streamflow characteristics were mean annual flows, 1-, 3-, and 7-day low flows and high flows, mean monthly flows, and flow duration. Drainage area and mean annual precipitation were not the most significant variables in all the regression equations. Variance in the low flows and the summer mean monthly flows was reduced by including an index of glacierized area within the basin as a third variable. Standard errors of estimate of the regression equations ranged from 25 to 88%, and the largest errors were associated with the low flow characteristics. Discharge measurements made at the eight sites near midmonth each month during 1981 were used to estimate monthly mean flows at the sites for that period. These measurements also were correlated with concurrent daily mean flows from eight operating gaging stations. The correlations provided estimates of mean monthly flows that compared reasonably well with those estimated by the regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Streamflow characteristics related to channel geometry of streams in western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hedman, E.R.; Osterkamp, W.R.

1982-01-01

Assessment of surface-mining and reclamation activities generally requires extensive hydrologic data. Adequate streamflow data from instrumented gaging stations rarely are available, and estimates of surface- water discharge based on rainfall-runoff models, drainage area, and basin characteristics sometimes have proven unreliable. Channel-geometry measurements offer an alternative method of quickly and inexpensively estimating stream-flow characteristics for ungaged streams. The method uses the empirical development of equations to yield a discharge value from channel-geometry and channel-material data. The equations are developed by collecting data at numerous streamflow-gaging sites and statistically relating those data to selected discharge characteristics. Mean annual runoff and flood discharges with selected recurrence intervals can be estimated for perennial, intermittent, and ephemeral streams. The equations were developed from data collected in the western one-half of the conterminous United States. The effect of the channel-material and runoff characteristics are accounted for with the equations.

Proposal and work plan to calibrate and verify a water-quality model to simulate effects of wastewater discharges to the Red River of the North at drought streamflow near Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesolowski, Edwin A.

2000-01-01

This report presents a proposal for conducting a water-quality modeling study at drought streamflow, a detailed comprehensive plan for collecting the data, and an annual drought-formation monitoring plan. A 30.8 mile reach of the Red River of the North receives treated wastewater from plants at Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota, and streamflow from the Sheyenne River. The water-quality modeling study will evaluate the effects of continuous treated-wastewater discharges to the study reach at drought streamflow. The study will define hydraulic characteristics and reaeration and selected reaction coefficients and will calibrate and verity a model.The study includes collecting synoptic water-quality samples for various types of analyses at a number of sites in the study reach. Dye and gas samples will be collected for traveltime and reaeration measurements. Using the Lagrangian reference frame, synoptic water-quality samples will be collected for analysis of nutrients, chlorophyll a, alkalinity, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand. Field measurements will be made of specific conductance, pH, air and water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and sediment oxygen demand. Two sets of water-quality data will be collected. One data set will be used to calibrate the model, and the other data set will be used to verity the model.The DAFLOW/BLTM models will be used to evaluate the effects of the treated wastewater on the water quality of the river. The model will simulate specific conductance, temperature, dissolved oxygen, carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, total nitrogen (organic, ammonia, nitrite, nitrate), total orthophosphorus, total phosphorus, and phytoplankton as chlorophyll a.The work plan identifies and discusses the work elements needed for accomplishing the data collection for the study. The work elements specify who will provide personnel, vehicles, instruments, and supplies needed during data collection. The work plan contains instructions for data collection; inventory lists of needed personnel, vehicles, instruments, and supplies; and examples of computations for determining quantities of tracer to be injected into the stream. The work plan also contains an annual drought-formation monitoring plan that includes a 9-month time line that specifies when essential planning actions must occur before actual project start up. Drought streamflows are rare. The annual drought-formation monitoring plan is presented to assist project planning by providing early warning that conditions are favorable to produce drought streamflow. The plan to monitor drought-forming conditions discusses the drought indices to be monitored. To establish a baseline, historic values for some of the drought indices for selected years were reviewed. An annual review of the drought indices is recommended.

Annually resolved late Holocene paleohydrology of the southern Sierra Nevada and Tulare Lake, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Kenneth D.; Negrini, Robert M.; Cook, Edward R.; Rajagopal, Seshadri

2015-12-01

Here we present 2000 year long, annually resolved records of streamflow for the Kings, Kaweah, Tule, and Kern Rivers in the southwestern Sierra Nevada of California and consequent lake-level fluctuations at Tulare Lake in the southern San Joaquin Valley. The integrated approach of using moisture-sensitive tree ring records from the Living Blended Drought Atlas to reconstruct annual discharge and then routing this discharge to an annual Tulare Lake water balance model highlights the differences between these two types of paleoclimate records, even when subject to the same forcing factors. The reconstructed streamflow in the southern Sierra responded to yearly changes in precipitation and expressed a strong periodicity in the 2-8 year range over most of the reconstruction. The storage capacity of Tulare Lake caused it to fluctuate more slowly, masking the 2-8 year streamflow periodicity and instead expressing a strong periodicity in the 32-64 year range over much of the record. Although there have been longer droughts, the 2015 water year represents the driest in the last 2015 years and the 2012-2015 drought represents the driest 4 year period in the record. Under natural conditions, simulated Tulare Lake levels would now be at about 60 m, which is not as low as what occurred multiple times over the last 2000 years. This long-term perspective of fluctuations in climate and water supply suggests that different drought scenarios that vary in terms of severity and duration can produce similar lake-level responses in closed lake basins.

Long-term Trends in Mean Annual Streamflow in the United States for the Period 1960 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, M. T.; Norton, P. A.

2013-12-01

Long-term trends in mean annual streamflow were examined in the United States for evidence of climate change. Streamflow serves as a useful integrator of many climate factors, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature and other hydrologic processes. The U.S. Geological Survey network of gaging stations with continuous record for the period 1960 through 2012 were considered and analyzed using the Kendall Tau statistical method looking for monotonic trends at a p-value greater than or equal to 0.1. Of the stations with 52 years of continuous record, 489 had upward trends while 260 stations had downward trends. Distinct geographic patterns of upward and downward trends emerged. Upward trends predominate in a band of stations extending from the eastern Dakotas through the Midwest to the New England states. Downward trends predominate in the southeastern United States and the Rocky Mountains of Wyoming, Montana and Idaho. Of those stations with upward trends, 56 stations had an increase in the annual mean that more than doubled from 1960 to 2012. The James River in South Dakota and the Red River of the North in North Dakota stand out for the magnitude of increase and the volume of water the increase represents. Of those stations with downward trends, 35 stations had a decrease that was more than half of the annual mean from 1960 to 2012. This presentation will provide details of these trends, the volumes of water represented, the associated precipitation trends and some evidence of land use change.

Suspended-sediment yields from an unmined area and from mined areas before and after reclamation in Pennsylvania, June 1978-September 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, L.A.; Hainly, R.A.

1989-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, has collected hydrologic data from areas in Tioga, Clearfield, and Fayette Counties to determine the effects of surface coal mining on sediment yields. The data were collected from June 1978 through September 1983. Rainfall, streamflow and suspended-sediment data were collected with automatic recording and sampling equipment. Data were collected in Tioga County from an agricultural area that was unaffected by mining and from a forested area prior to surface mining. Data were collected from two areas affected by active surface mining in Tioga County and from an area in Clearfield County being mined by the contour-surface method. Data also were collected from three areas, Tioga, Clearfield, and Fayette Counties, during and after reclamation. The efficiencies of sediment-control pounds in Clearfield and Fayette Counties also were determined. The average annual sediment yield from the agricultural area in Tioga County, which was 35 percent forested, was 0.48 ton per acre per year, and the yield from the forested area prior to mining was 0.0036 ton per acre per year. The average annual sediment yields from the areas affected by active surface mining were 22 tons per acre from the improved haul road and 148 tons per acre from the unimproved haul road. The average annual sediment yield from the site in Clearfield County that had been prepared for mining was 6.3 tons per acre. The average annual sediment yield from the same site while it was being mined by the contour method was 5.5 tons per acre per year. The sediment-control pond reduced the average annual sediment yield to 0.50 ton per acre while the site was prepared for mining and to 0.14 ton per acre while the site was being mined. Because the active surface mining reduced the effective drainage area to the pond, the sediment yield decreased from 0.50 to 0.14 ton per acre. Average annual suspended-sediment yields from the reclaimed site in Tioga County were 1.0 ton per acre during the first year, when vegetation was becoming established, and 0.037 ton per acre during the second year, when vegetation was well established. The average annual sediment yield below a 21.2-acre, reclaimed, surface mine in Clearfield County that had been mined by the contour method was 15 tons per acre during the first year when vegetation was becoming established. However, the average annual sediment yield below a sediment-control pond at this reclaimed site in Clearfield County was 0.30 ton per acre. Data collected from a 4.2-acre reclaimed area that had been surface mined by the block-cut method in Fayette County showed that annual sediment yields from the area were 77 tons per acre in 1981 (no vegetation), 32 tons per acre in 1982 (sparse vegetation), and 1.0 ton per acre in 1983 (well-esatablished vegetation). The average annual yield below a sediment-control pond at the mine site in Fayette County was 0.19 ton per acre during the 27 months of data collection.

Maps to estimate average streamflow and headwater limits for streams in U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District, Alabama and adjacent states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, George H.

1984-01-01

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers permits are required for discharges of dredged or fill-material downstream from the ' headwaters ' of specified streams. The term ' headwaters ' is defined as the point of a freshwater (non-tidal) stream above which the average flow is less than 5 cu ft/s. Maps of the Mobile District area showing (1) lines of equal average streamflow, and (2) lines of equal drainage areas required to produce an average flow of 5 cu ft/s are contained in this report. These maps are for use by the Corps of Engineers in their permitting program. (USGS)

Treating pre-instrumental data as "missing" data: using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate record and imputations to reconstruct streamflow in the Missouri River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, M. W.; Lall, U.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

Advances in paleoclimatology in the past few decades have provided opportunities to expand the temporal perspective of the hydrological and climatological variability across the world. The North American region is particularly fortunate in this respect where a relatively dense network of high resolution paleoclimate proxy records have been assembled. One such network is the annually-resolved Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA): a paleoclimate reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) that covers North America on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid based on tree-ring chronologies. However, the use of the LBDA to assess North American streamflow variability requires a model by which streamflow may be reconstructed. Paleoclimate reconstructions have typically used models that first seek to quantify the relationship between the paleoclimate variable and the environmental variable of interest before extrapolating the relationship back in time. In contrast, the pre-instrumental streamflow is here considered as "missing" data. A method of imputing the "missing" streamflow data, prior to the instrumental record, is applied through multiple imputation using chained equations for streamflow in the Missouri River Basin. In this method, the distribution of the instrumental streamflow and LBDA is used to estimate sets of plausible values for the "missing" streamflow data resulting in a ~600 year-long streamflow reconstruction. Past research into external climate forcings, oceanic-atmospheric variability and its teleconnections, and assessments of rare multi-centennial instrumental records demonstrate that large temporal oscillations in hydrological conditions are unlikely to be captured in most instrumental records. The reconstruction of multi-centennial records of streamflow will enable comprehensive assessments of current and future water resource infrastructure and operations under the existing scope of natural climate variability.

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

Land Use Change Increases Streamflow Across the Arc of Deforestation in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, M. C.; Lopes, A. V.; Cohn, A.; Larsen, L. G.; Thompson, S. E.

2018-04-01

Nearly half of recent decades' global forest loss occurred in the Amazon and Cerrado (tropical savanna) biomes of Brazil, known as the arc of deforestation. Despite prior analysis in individual river basins, a generalizable empirical understanding of the effect of deforestation on streamflow across this region is lacking. We frame land use change in Brazil as a natural experiment and draw on in situ and remote sensing evidence in 324 river basins covering more than 3 × 106 km2 to estimate streamflow changes caused by deforestation and agricultural development between 1950 and 2013. Deforestation increased dry season low flow by between 4 and 10 percentage points (relative to the forested condition), corresponding to a regional- and time-averaged rate of increase in specific streamflow of 1.29 mm/year2, equivalent to a 4.08 km3/year2 increase, assuming a stationary climate. In conjunction with rainfall and temperature variations, the net (observed) average increase in streamflow over the same period was 0.76 mm/year2, or 2.41 km3/year2. Thus, net increases in regional streamflow in the past half century are 58% of those that would have been experienced with deforestation given a stationary climate. This study uses a causal empirical analysis approach novel to the water sciences to verify the regional applicability of prior basin-scale studies, provides a proof of concept for the use of observational causal identification methods in the water sciences, and demonstrates that deforestation masks the streamflow-reducing effects of climate change in this region.

Assessment of groundwater/surface-water interaction and simulation of potential streamflow depletion induced by groundwater withdrawal, Uinta River near Roosevelt, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambert, P.M.; Marston, T.; Kimball, B.A.; Stolp, B.J.

2011-01-01

Roosevelt City, Utah, asserts a need for an additional supply of water to meet municipal demands and has identified a potential location for additional groundwater development at the Sprouse well field near the West Channel of the Uinta River. Groundwater is commonly hydraulically linked to surface water and, under some conditions, the pumpage of groundwater can deplete water in streams and other water bodies. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Roosevelt City, the Utah Department of Natural Resources, and the Ute Indian Tribe, began a study to improve understanding of the local interconnection between groundwater and surface water and to assess the potential for streamflow depletion from future groundwater withdrawals at a potential Roosevelt City development location—the Sprouse well field near the West Channel of the Uinta River.In the study, streamflow gains and losses at the river/aquifer boundary near the well field and changes in those conditions over time were assessed through (1) synoptic measurement of discharge in the stream at multiple sites using tracer-dilution methods, (2) periodic measurement of the vertical hydraulic gradient across the streambed, and (3) continuous measurement of stream and streambed water temperature using heat as a tracer of flow across the streambed. Although some contradictions among the results of the three assessment methods were observed, results of the approaches generally indicated (1) losing streamflow conditions on the West Channel of the Uinta River north of and upstream from the Sprouse well field within the study area, (2) gaining streamflow conditions south of and downstream from the well field, and (3) some seasonal changes in those conditions that correspond with seasonal changes in stream stage and local water-table altitudes.A numerical groundwater flow model was developed on the basis of previously reported observations and observations made during this study, and was used to estimate potential streamflow depletion that might result from future groundwater withdrawals at the Sprouse well field. The model incorporates concepts of transient groundwater flow conditions including fluctuations in groundwater levels and storage, and the distribution of and temporal variations in gains to and losses from streamflow in the West Channel of the Uinta River near the Sprouse well field. Two predictive model simulations incorporated additional future discharge from the Sprouse well field totaling 325 acre-feet annually and biennially during summer months. Results of the predictive model simulations indicate that the water withdrawn by the additional pumping was derived initially from aquifer storage and then, with time, predominantly from streamflow depletion. By the 10th year of the predictive simulation incorporating annual summer pumping from an additional public-supply well in the Sprouse well field, the simulation results indicate that 89 percent of a future annual 325 acre-feet of discharge is derived from depletion of streamflow in the West Channel of the Uinta River. A similar result was observed in a predictive model simulating the same discharge rate but with the new well being pumped every other year.

Relating streamflow characteristics to specialized insectivores in the Tennessee River Valley: a regional approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knight, Rodney R.; Gregory, M. Brian; Wales, Amy K.

2008-01-01

Analysis of hydrologic time series and fish community data across the Tennessee River Valley identified three hydrologic metrics essential to habitat suitability and food availability for insectivorous fish communities in streams of the Tennessee River Valley: constancy (flow stability or temporal invariance), frequency of moderate flooding (frequency of habitat disturbance), and rate of streamflow recession. Initial datasets included 1100 fish community sites and 300 streamgages. Reduction of these datasets to sites with coexisting data yielded 33 sites with streamflow and fish community data for analysis. Identification of critical hydrologic metrics was completed using a multivariate correlation procedure that maximizes the rank correlation between the hydrologic metrics and fish community resemblance matrices. Quantile regression was used to define thresholds of potential ranges of insectivore scores for given values of the hydrologic metrics. Increased values of constancy and insectivore scores were positively correlated. Constancy of streamflow maintains wetted perimeter, which is important for providing habitat for fish spawning and increased surface area for invertebrate colonization and reproduction. Site scores for insectivorous fish increased as the frequency of moderate flooding (3 times the median annual streamflow) decreased, suggesting that insectivorous fish communities respond positively to less frequent disturbance and a more stable habitat. Increased streamflow recession rates were associated with decreased insectivore scores. Increased streamflow recession can strand fish in pools and other areas that are disconnected from flowing water and remove invertebrates as food sources that were suspended during high-streamflow events.

Identifying Hydrologic Processes in Agricultural Watersheds Using Precipitation-Runoff Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linard, Joshua I.; Wolock, David M.; Webb, Richard M.T.; Wieczorek, Michael

2009-01-01

Understanding the fate and transport of agricultural chemicals applied to agricultural fields will assist in designing the most effective strategies to prevent water-quality impairments. At a watershed scale, the processes controlling the fate and transport of agricultural chemicals are generally understood only conceptually. To examine the applicability of conceptual models to the processes actually occurring, two precipitation-runoff models - the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) - were applied in different agricultural settings of the contiguous United States. Each model, through different physical processes, simulated the transport of water to a stream from the surface, the unsaturated zone, and the saturated zone. Models were calibrated for watersheds in Maryland, Indiana, and Nebraska. The calibrated sets of input parameters for each model at each watershed are discussed, and the criteria used to validate the models are explained. The SWAT and WEBMOD model results at each watershed conformed to each other and to the processes identified in each watershed's conceptual hydrology. In Maryland the conceptual understanding of the hydrology indicated groundwater flow was the largest annual source of streamflow; the simulation results for the validation period confirm this. The dominant source of water to the Indiana watershed was thought to be tile drains. Although tile drains were not explicitly simulated in the SWAT model, a large component of streamflow was received from lateral flow, which could be attributed to tile drains. Being able to explicitly account for tile drains, WEBMOD indicated water from tile drains constituted most of the annual streamflow in the Indiana watershed. The Nebraska models indicated annual streamflow was composed primarily of perennial groundwater flow and infiltration-excess runoff, which conformed to the conceptual hydrology developed for that watershed. The hydrologic processes represented in the parameter sets resulting from each model were comparable at individual watersheds, but varied between watersheds. The models were unable to show, however, whether hydrologic processes other than those included in the original conceptual models were major contributors to streamflow. Supplemental simulations of agricultural chemical transport could improve the ability to assess conceptual models.

Water Quality and Biological Characteristics of the Middle Fork of the Saline River, Arkansas, 2003-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Petersen, James C.; Shelby, Erica L.; Wise, Jim A.

2008-01-01

The Middle Fork of the Saline River has many qualities that have been recognized by State and Federal agencies. The Middle Fork provides habitat for several rare aquatic species and is part of a larger stream system (the Upper Saline River) that is known for relatively high levels of species richness and relatively high numbers of species of concern. Water-quality samples were collected and streamflow was measured by the U.S. Geological Survey at three sites in the Middle Fork Basin between October 2003 and October 2006. The Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality collected discrete synoptic water-quality samples from eight sites between January 2004 and October 2006. The Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality also sampled fish (September-October 2003) and benthic macroinvertebrate communities (September 2003-December 2005) at five sites. Streamflow varied annually among the three streamflow sites from October 2003 to October 2006. The mean annual streamflow for Brushy Creek near Jessieville (MFS06) was 0.72 cubic meters per second for water years 2004-2006. The Middle Fork below Jessieville (MFS05) had a mean annual streamflow of 1.11 cubic meters per second for water years 2004-2006. The Middle Fork near Owensville (MFS02), the most downstream site, had a mean annual streamflow of 3.01 cubic meters per second. The greatest streamflows at the three sites generally occurred in the winter and spring and the least in the summer. Nutrient dynamics in the Middle Fork are controlled by activities in the basin and processes that occur in the stream. Point sources and nonpoint sources of nutrients occur in the Middle Fork Basin that could affect the water-quality. Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations generally were greatest in Mill Creek (MFS04E) and in the Middle Fork immediately downstream from the confluence with Mill Creek (MFS04) with decreasing concentrations at sites farther downstream in Middle Fork. The site in Mill Creek is located downstream from a wastewater-treatment plant discharge and concentrations at sites farther downstream probably had lesser concentrations because of dilution effects and from algal uptake. Nutrient concentrations generally were significantly greater during high-flow conditions compared to base-flow conditions. Flow-weighted nutrient concentrations were computed for the three streamflow sites and were compared to 82 relatively undeveloped sites identified across the Nation, to the Alum Fork of the Saline River near Reform, Arkansas, and to the Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas, a site influenced by numerous point and nonpoint sources of nutrients. Annual flow-weighted nutrient concentrations for MFS06, MFS05, and MFS02 were greater than relatively undeveloped sites, but were substantially less than the Illinois River south of Siloam Springs. Fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were slightly greater at MFS06 and MFS05 compared to concentrations at MFS02 for October 2003 to October 2006. MFS05 had the greatest E.coli concentrations and MFS06 had the greatest fecal coliform concentrations. Overall, fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were significantly greater for samples collected during high-flow conditions compared to samples collected during low-flow conditions at all three sites. Suspended-sediment concentrations did not vary significantly among MFS06, MFS05, and MFS02 for all the samples collected from October 2003 to October 2006. Suspended-sediment concentrations were significantly greater in samples collected during high-flow conditions compared to samples collected during base-flow conditions. Synoptic samples indicated varied total suspended-solids distributions from upstream to downstream in the Middle Fork between January 2004 and October 2006. Overall, total suspended-solids values were the greatest at site MFS02 and decreased at sites upstream and downstream. Turbidity measured when water-quality samples were

On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2017-01-01

Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

Timing and Duration of Flow in Ephemeral Streams of the Sierra Vista Subwatershed of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Cochise County, Southeastern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gungle, Bruce

2006-01-01

Frequency, timing, and duration of streamflow were monitored in 20 ephemeral-stream channels across the Sierra Vista Subwatershed of the Upper San Pedro Basin, southeastern Arizona, during an 18-month period. One channel (Walnut Gulch) had Agricultural Research Service streamflow-gaging stations in place. The sediments of the remaining 19 ephemeral-stream channels were instrumented with multiple temperature loggers along the channel lengths. A thermograph-interpretation technique was developed in order to determine frequency, timing, and duration of streamflow in these channels. Streamflow onset was characterized by exceedance of a critical minimum drop in temperature within the channel sediments during any 15-minute interval, whereas streamflow cessation was identified by the local temperature minimum that immediately followed the critical temperature drop. All data for the 18-month period from December 1, 2000, to May 31, 2002, were analyzed in terms of monsoon (June 1 to September 19) and nonmonsoon (September 20 to May 31) periods. Nonmonsoon precipitation during the 2000-2002 study period (excludes October and November 2000) was 82 percent and 39 percent of the 30-year average, respectively, whereas monsoon precipitation during 2001 was 99 percent of the 30-year average. Ephemeral streamflow was detected at least once during the monitoring period at 87 percent of the monitoring sites (45 of the 52 sites that returned useful data; includes 4 streamflow-gaging stations). The summer monsoon period accounted for 82 percent of all streamflow events by number and 71 percent of all events by total streamflow duration. Nonmonsoon streamflow events peaked in number, total streamflow duration, and mean streamflow duration midway between the Huachuca Mountains and the San Pedro River on the west side of the subwatershed. These three streamflow parameters dropped off sharply about 10 kilometers from the mountain front. The number and total duration of nonmonsoon streamflows on the east side of the subwatershed trended downward with increased distance from the mountain fronts. Monsoon streamflow events were more evenly distributed across the subwatershed than nonmonsoon events, and the number and duration of streamflows generally trended upward with distance from the mountain fronts. Additional years of data are needed to determine whether these patterns are consistent year to year, or were due to randomness in the spatial distribution of precipitation. Streamflows in three ephemeral-stream channels were analyzed in detail. More than two-thirds of the streamflow events detected in each of these channels occurred at no more than one monitoring site along the channel length. In only one of the three channels-Garden Canyon-was a streamflow event detected at all logger sites along its length. Five temperature loggers provided data from urbanized areas, and these loggers detected streamflow more than 50 percent more often and of a duration nearly three times greater than did temperature loggers across the rural parts of the subwatershed. Because historical records do not indicate that more precipitation occurs in the urbanized area than in the rural areas, the increased frequency of flow detection in the urban area is attributed to an increase in runoff from the impervious surfaces throughout the urbanized area.

Hydrology and water quality of lakes and streams in Orange County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

German, Edward R.; Adamski, James C.

2005-01-01

Orange County, Florida, is continuing to experience a large growth in population. In 1920, the population of Orange County was less than 20,000; in 2000, the population was about 896,000. The amount of urban area around Orlando has increased considerably, especially in the northwest part of the County. The eastern one-third of the County, however, had relatively little increase in urbanization from 1977-97. The increase of population, tourism, and industry in Orange County and nearby areas changed land use; land that was once agricultural has become urban, industrial, and major recreation areas. These changes could impact surface-water resources that are important for wildlife habitat, for esthetic reasons, and potentially for public supply. Streamflow characteristics and water quality could be affected in various ways. As a result of changing land use, changes in the hydrology and water quality of Orange County's lakes and streams could occur. Median runoff in 10 selected Orange County streams ranges from about 20 inches per year (in/yr) in the Wekiva River to about 1.1 in/yr in Cypress Creek. The runoff for the Wekiva River is significantly higher than other river basins because of the relatively constant spring discharge that sustains streamflow, even during drought conditions. The low runoff for the Cypress Creek basin results from a lack of sustained inflow from ground water and a relatively large area of lakes within the drainage basin. Streamflow characteristics for 13 stations were computed on an annual basis and examined for temporal trends. Results of the trend testing indicate changes in annual mean streamflow, 1-day high streamflow, or 7-day low streamflow at 8 of the 13 stations. However, changes in 7-day low streamflow are more common than changes in annual mean or 1-day high streamflow. There is probably no single reason for the changes in 7-day low streamflows, and for most streams, it is difficult to determine definite reasons for the flow increases. Low flows in the Econlockhatchee River at Chuluota have increased because of discharge of treated wastewater since 1982. However, trends in increasing 7-day low streamflow are evident before 1982, which cannot be attributed to wastewater discharge. Some of the increases in 7-day low flows may be related to drainage changes resulting from increased development in Orange County. Development for most purposes, including those as diverse as cattle grazing and residential construction, may involve modification of surface drainage through stream channelization and construction of canals. These changes in land drainage can lower the water table, resulting in reductions of regional evapotranspiration rates and increased streamflow. Another possible cause of increasing low flows in streams is use of water from the Floridan aquifer system for irrigation. Runoff of irrigation water or increased seepage from irrigated areas to streams could increase base streamflow compared to natural conditions. Water-level data were analyzed to determine temporal trends from 83 lakes that had more than 15 years of record. There were significant temporal trends in 33 of the 83 lakes (40 percent) over the entire period of record. Of these 33 lakes, 14 had increasing water levels and 19 lakes had decreasing water levels. The downward trends in long-term lake levels could in part be due to high rainfall accumulation in 1960-1961, which included precipitation from Hurricane Donna (September 1960). The high rainfall resulted in historical high-water levels in many lakes in 1960 or 1961. A large range of water-quality conditions exists in lakes and streams of Orange County (2000-01). Specific conductance in lake samples ranged from 57 to 1,185 microsiemens per centimeter. Values of pH ranged from 3.2 to 8.7 in stream samples and 4.6 to 9.6 in lake samples. Total nitrogen concentrations ranged from less than 0.2 to 7.1 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen in stream samples, and

Cost effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Gerald L.

1989-01-01

This report documents results of a cost-effectiveness study of the stream-gaging program In North Dakota. It is part of a nationwide evaluation of the stream-gaging program of the U.S. Geological Survey.One phase of evaluating cost effectiveness is to identify less costly alternative methods of simulating streamflow records. Statistical or hydro logic flow-routing methods were used as alternative methods to simulate streamflow records for 21 combinations of gaging stations from the 94-gaging-station network. Accuracy of the alternative methods was sufficient to consider discontinuing only one gaging station.Operation of the gaging-station network was evaluated by using associated uncertainty in streamflow records. The evaluation was limited to the nonwinter operation of 29 gaging stations in eastern North Dakota. The current (1987) travel routes and measurement frequencies require a budget of about $248/000 and result in an average equivalent Gaussian spread in streamflow records of 16.5 percent. Changes in routes and measurement frequencies optimally could reduce the average equivalent Gaussian spread to 14.7 percent.Budgets evaluated ranged from $235,000 to $400,000. A $235,000 budget would increase the optimal average equivalent Gaussian spread from 14.7 to 20.4 percent, and a $400,000 budget could decrease it to 5.8 percent.

Report of the annual yield of the Arkansas River basin for the Arkansas River Basin Compact, Arkansas-Oklahoma,1983 water year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, M.A.; Lamb, T.E.

1984-01-01

The computed annual yield and deficiency of the subbasins as defined in the Arkansas River Compact, Arkansas-Oklahoma, are given in tables. Actual runoff from the subbasins and depletion caused by major reservoirs in the compact area are also given in tabular form. Monthly, maximum, minimum, and mean discharges are shown for the 14 streamflow stations used in computing annual yield. (USGS)

Hydrologic assessment of a riparian section along Boulder Creek near Boulder, Colorado, September 1989-September 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimbrough, Robert

1995-01-01

Native woody riparian species, primarily plains cottonwood (Populus fremontii), are regenerating at less than historical rates along Boulder Creek, a regulated stream near Boulder, Colorado. Loss of native riparian habitats might cause a decline in numbers of some native wildlife species. Previous studies have indicated that streamflow regulation can adversely affect native riparian vegetation reproduction. Surface- and ground-water data were collected from September 1989 to September 1991 along a riparian section of Boulder Creek to assist ecologists in assessing woody plant-recruitment characteristics. Annual mean streamflows in Boulder Creek at Cottonwood Grove of 34.5 cubic feet per second for water year 1990 (October 1, 1989- September 30, 1990) and 34.1 cubic feet per second for water year 1991 were 53 percent less than a site on Boulder Creek about 5 miles upstream from the study area. Diversions dating from 1882 caused most of the decrease. The alluvial aquifer in the study area averaged 5 feet in thickness and consisted of gravel- to cobble-size particles derived from crystalline rock of Precambrian age. The direction of ground-water movement was similar to the direction of streamflow. Ground-water movement in the northeastern part of the grove was affected by a pond constructed at a lower elevation than the stream channel. Water levels in the alluvial aquifer adjacent to the stream pre- dominantly were affected by stream stage, whereas farther from the channel, ground-water levels were affected by other processes such as evapotrans- piration, infiltration, and recharge from urban runoff.

Analysis of 20th century rainfall and streamflow to characterize drought and water resources in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Matthew C.

2000-01-01

During the period from 1990 to 1997, annual rainfall accumulation averaged 87% of normal at the 12 stations with the longest period of record in Puerto Rico, a Caribbean island with a 1999 population of 3.8 million. Streamflow in rivers supplying the La Plata and Loíza reservoirs, the principal water supply of the San Juan metropolitan area, was at or below the 10th flow percentile for 27% to 50% of the time between December 1993 and May 1996. Diminished reservoir levels in 1994 and 1995 affected more than 1 million people in the San Juan metropolitan area. Water rationing was implemented during this period and significant agricultural losses, valued at $165 million, were recorded in 1994. The public endured a year of mandatory water rationing in which sections of the city had their water-distribution networks shut off for 24 to 36 hours on alternate days. During the winter and spring of 1997–1998, water was rationed to more than 200,000 people in northwestern Puerto Rico because water level in the Guajataca reservoir was well below normal for two years because of rainfall deficits. The drought period of 1993–1996 was comparable in magnitude to a drought in 1966–1968, but water rationing was more severe during the 1993–1996 period, indicating that water management issues such as demand, storage capacity, water production and losses, and per capita consumption are increasingly important as population and development in Puerto Rico expand. [Key words: drought, streamflow, water resources, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, rainfall, water supply.

Concentrations, loads, and yields of select constituents from major tributaries of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Iowa, water years 2004-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garrett, Jessica D.

2012-01-01

Excess nutrients, suspended-sediment loads, and the presence of pesticides in Iowa rivers can have deleterious effects on water quality in State streams, downstream major rivers, and the Gulf of Mexico. Fertilizer and pesticides are used to support crop growth on Iowa's highly productive agricultural landscape and for household and commercial lawns and gardens. Water quality was characterized near the mouths of 10 major Iowa tributaries to the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers from March 2004 through September 2008. Stream loads were calculated for select ions, nutrients, and sediment using approximately monthly samples, and samples from storm and snowmelt events. Water-quality samples collected using standard streamflow-integrated protocols were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, carbon, pesticides, and suspended sediment. Statistical data summaries of sample data used parametric and nonparametric techniques to address potential bias related to censored data and multiple levels of censoring of data below analytical detection limits. Constituent stream loads were computed using standard pre-defined models in S-LOADEST that include streamflow and time terms plus additional terms for streamflow variability and streamflow anomalies. Streamflow variability terms describe the difference in streamflow from recent average conditions, whereas streamflow anomaly terms account for deviations from average conditions from long- to short-term sequentially. Streamflow variability or anomaly terms were included in 44 of 80 site/constituent individual models, demonstrating the usefulness of these terms in increasing accuracy of the load estimates. Constituent concentrations in Iowa streams exhibit streamflow, seasonal, and spatial patterns related to the landform and climate gradients across the studied basins. The streamflow-concentration relation indicated dilution for ions such as chloride and sulfate. Other constituent concentrations, such as dissolved organic carbon and suspended sediment, increased with streamflow. Nitrogen concentrations (total nitrogen and nitrate plus nitrite) increased with low and moderate streamflows, but decreased with high streamflows. Seasonal patterns observed in constituent concentrations were affected by streamflow, algae blooms, and pesticide application. The various landform regions produced different water-quality responses across the study basins; for example, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and turbidity were greatest from the steep, loess-dominated southwestern Iowa basins. Nutrient concentrations, though not regulated for drinking water at the study sites, were high compared to drinking-water limits and criteria for protection of aquatic life proposed for other Midwestern states (Iowa criteria for aquatic life have not been proposed). Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations exceeded the drinking-water limit [10 milligrams per liter (mg/L)] in 11 percent of all samples at the 10 sites, and exceeded Minnesota's proposed aquatic life criteria (4.9 mg/L) in 68 percent of samples. The Wisconsin standard for total phosphorus (0.1 mg/L) was exceeded in 92 percent of samples. Ammonia standards, current during sample collection and at publication of this report, for protection of aquatic life were met for all samples, but draft criteria proposed in 2009 to protect more sensitive species like mussels, were exceeded at three sites. Loads and yields also differed among sites and years. The Big Sioux, Little Sioux, and Des Moines Rivers produced the greatest sulfate yields. Mississippi River tributaries had greater chloride yields than Missouri River tributaries. The Big Sioux River also had the lowest silica yields and total nitrogen and nitrate yields, whereas nitrogen yields were greater in the northeastern rivers. The Boyer and Nishnabotna River total phosphorus yields were the greatest in the study. The Boyer River orthophosphate yields were greatest except in 2008, when the Maquoketa River produced the greatest yield. Rivers in southwestern Iowa's Western Loess Hills and Steeply Rolling Loess Prairie ecoregions had the greatest suspended-sediment yields, whereas the smallest yields were in the Big Sioux and Wapsipinicon Rivers. In the 10 Iowa rivers studied, combined annual total nitrogen stream transport ranged from 3.68 to 9.95 tons per square mile per year, and total phosphorus transport ranged from 0.138 to 0.570 tons per square mile per year. Six-month loads relative to fertilizer use ranged from 8 to 56 percent for nitrogen, and 1.0 to 11.1 percent for phosphorus. The smallest loads relative to fertilizer use for both nitrogen and phosphorus occurred in July-December of dry years, and the largest nitrogen and phosphorus loads relative to use were in wet years from January-June.

Surface-water hydrologic data for the Houston metropolitan area, Texas, water years 1990-95

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sneck-Fahrer, Debra A.; Liscum, Fred; East, Jeffery W.

2003-01-01

During water years 1990–95, data were collected at 24 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations, 21 rain gages, and 6 water-quality stations in the Houston metropolitan area, Texas. The data were collected as part of the Houston Urban Runoff Program, which began in water year 1964. Annual peaks were defined for the 24 streamflow-gaging stations in the study area. All stations had 10 or more years of record. Precipitation data from the 21 rain gages and discharge or stage data from 23 streamflow-gaging stations are available to develop storm hydrographs. One-hundred thirty-four samples were collected at six water-quality stations. The samples were analyzed for about 80 water-quality properties and constituents.

Water resources data for california, water year 1992. Volume 1. Southern Great Basin from Mexican border to Mono lake basin, and pacific slope basins from Tijuana river to Santa Maria river. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1991-30 September 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, E.B.; Bowers, J.C.; Mullen, J.R.

1993-09-01

Water resources data for the 1992 water year for California consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage and contents in lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality in wells. Volume 1 contains (1) discharge records for 161 streamflow-gaging stations, 15 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations, and 5 miscellaneous measurement stations; (2) stage and contents records for 26 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water-quality records for 23 streamflow-gaging stations and 3 partial-record stations; and (4) precipitation records for 11 stations.

Water resources data for California, water year 1993. Volume 1. Southern Great Basin from Mexican border to Mono Lake Basin, and Pacific Slope Basins from Tijuana River to Santa Maria River. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1992-30 September 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mullen, J.R.; Hayes, P.D.; Agajanian, J.A.

1994-06-01

Water resources data for the 1993 water year for California consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage and contents in lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality in wells. Volume 1 contains (1) discharge records for 156 streamflow-gaging stations, 12 crest-stage partial-record streamflow stations, and 5 miscellaneous measurement stations; (2) stage and contents records for 26 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water-quality records for 17 streamflow-gaging stations and 6 partial-record stations; and (4) precipitation records for 10 stations.

Using the tracer-dilution discharge method to develop streamflow records for ice-affected streams in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Capesius, Joseph P.; Sullivan, Joseph R.; O'Neill, Gregory B.; Williams, Cory A.

2005-01-01

Accurate ice-affected streamflow records are difficult to obtain for several reasons, which makes the management of instream-flow water rights in the wintertime a challenging endeavor. This report documents a method to improve ice-affected streamflow records for two gaging stations in Colorado. In January and February 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted an experiment using a sodium chloride tracer to measure streamflow under ice cover by the tracer-dilution discharge method. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of obtaining accurate ice-affected streamflow records by using a sodium chloride tracer that was injected into the stream. The tracer was injected at two gaging stations once per day for approximately 20 minutes for 25 days. Multiple-parameter water-quality sensors at the two gaging stations monitored background and peak chloride concentrations. These data were used to determine discharge at each site. A comparison of the current-meter streamflow record to the tracer-dilution streamflow record shows different levels of accuracy and precision of the tracer-dilution streamflow record at the two sites. At the lower elevation and warmer site, Brandon Ditch near Whitewater, the tracer-dilution method overestimated flow by an average of 14 percent, but this average is strongly biased by outliers. At the higher elevation and colder site, Keystone Gulch near Dillon, the tracer-dilution method experienced problems with the tracer solution partially freezing in the injection line. The partial freezing of the tracer contributed to the tracer-dilution method underestimating flow by 52 percent at Keystone Gulch. In addition, a tracer-pump-reliability test was conducted to test how accurately the tracer pumps can discharge the tracer solution in conditions similar to those used at the gaging stations. Although the pumps were reliable and consistent throughout the 25-day study period, the pumps underdischarged the tracer by 5.8-15.9 percent as compared to the initial pumping rate setting, which may explain some of the error in the tracer-dilution streamflow record as compared to current-meter streamflow record.

Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

PubMed

Ficklin, Darren L; Stewart, Iris T; Maurer, Edwin P

2013-01-01

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health.

Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Subbasin-Scale Hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin

PubMed Central

Ficklin, Darren L.; Stewart, Iris T.; Maurer, Edwin P.

2013-01-01

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21st century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of −100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of −100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health. PMID:23977011

Water resources and data-network assessment of the Manasota Basin, Manatee and Sarasota Counties, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, David P.

1982-01-01

The average annual rainfall in the Manasota Basin is 53.7 inches , and annual evapotranspiration is about 39 inches. Annual runoff from gaged parts of the Basin ranges from about 13 to 17 inches per year. Streamflow in the upland areas diminishes rapidly following the end of the rainy season and approaches zero during extended dry periods. Generally, surface water is of good quality except in tidally affected, coastal areas. Its quality varies seasonally, generally becoming more mineralized during the dry season. The principal hydrogeologic units are the surficial aquifer, the upper confining beds and minor artesian aquifers, the Floridan acquifer, and the lower confining bed. The quality of ground water is generally good except in the western and southern parts where saltwater intrusion or incomplete flushing of residual seawater has occurred. Land-use changes and stream impoundments and diversions require reassessment of the type and use of data collected by the surface-water network. Such changes may require modification of existing sites and establishment of new ones. Development and completion of the monitoring plan could provide most of the data necessary to define the groundwater system. (USGS)

Runoff characteristics of California streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rantz, S.E.

1972-01-01

California streams exhibit a wide range of runoff characteristics that are related to the climatologic, topographic, and geologic characteristics of the basins they drain. The annual volume of runoff of a stream, expressed in inches, may be large or small, and daily discharge rates may be highly variable or relatively steady. The bulk of the annual runoff may be storm runoff, or snowmelt runoff, or a combination of both. The streamflow may be ephemeral, intermittent, or perennial; if perennial, base flow may be well sustained or poorly sustained. In this report the various runoff characteristics are identified by numerical index values. They are shown to be related generally to mean annual precipitation, altitude, latitude, and location with respect to the 11 geomorphic provinces in the California Region. With respect to mean annual precipitation on the watershed, streamflow is generally (1) ephemeral if the mean annual precipitation is less than 10 inches, (2) intermittent if the mean annual precipitation is between 10 and 40 inches, and (3) perennial if the mean annual precipitation is more than 40 inches. Departures from those generalizations are associated with (a) the areal variation of such geologic factors as the infiltration and storage capacities of the rocks underlying the watersheds, and (b) the areal variation of evapotranspiration loss as influenced by varying conditions of climate, soil, vegetal cover, and geologic structure. Latitude and altitude determine the proportion of the winter precipitation that will be stored for subsequent runoff in the late spring and summer. In general, if a watershed has at least 30 percent of its area above the normal altitude of the snowline on April 1, it will have significant snowmelt runoff. Snowmelt runoff in California is said to be significant if at least 30 percent of the annual runoff occurs during the 4 months, April through July. Storm runoff is said to be predominant if at least 65 percent of the annual runoff occurs during the 6 months, October through March. Base flow (ground-water outflow), as a factor in the regimen of streamflow, is qualified on the basis of the percentage of the mean annual runoff that occurs during the fair-weather months of August and September. If the sum of the August and September runoff exceeds 3.0 percent of the annual runoff, base flow is considered to be well sustained; if the percentage is between 1.5 and 3.0, base flow is considered to be fairly well sustained; if the percentage is less than 1.5, baseflow is considered to be poorly sustained. The characteristics of duration curves of daily streamflow are influenced by the regimen of runoff. The distribution of daily flow is skewed for all streams, but it is more skewed for streams whose flow is predominantly storm runoff than for streams that carry significantly large quantities of snowmelt. Least skewed is the distribution for streams that carry large quantities of base flow. Either of two characteristics of the duration curve may be used as an index of skew--the percentage of time that the mean discharge is equaled or exceeded or the ratio of the median discharge to the mean discharge. As for variability of daily discharge, the variability of storm-runoff streams is greater than that of snowmelt streams, and the lowest values of variability are associated with streams that carry large quantities of base flow. The index of variability used in this study was the ratio of the discharge equaled or exceeded 10 percent of the time to the discharge equaled or exceeded 90 percent of the time. The identification of streamflow characteristics by numerical index figures greatly facilitates comparison of the diverse runoff regimens of streams in the California Region.

Cost effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, A.C.; Wright, B.C.; Bennett, C.S.

1985-01-01

The cost effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in South Carolina was documented for the 1983 water yr. Data uses and funding sources were identified for the 76 continuous stream gages currently being operated in South Carolina. The budget of $422,200 for collecting and analyzing streamflow data also includes the cost of operating stage-only and crest-stage stations. The streamflow records for one stream gage can be determined by alternate, less costly methods, and should be discontinued. The remaining 75 stations should be maintained in the program for the foreseeable future. The current policy for the operation of the 75 stations including the crest-stage and stage-only stations would require a budget of $417,200/yr. The average standard error of estimation of streamflow records is 16.9% for the present budget with missing record included. However, the standard error of estimation would decrease to 8.5% if complete streamflow records could be obtained. It was shown that the average standard error of estimation of 16.9% could be obtained at the 75 sites with a budget of approximately $395,000 if the gaging resources were redistributed among the gages. A minimum budget of $383,500 is required to operate the program; a budget less than this does not permit proper service and maintenance of the gages and recorders. At the minimum budget, the average standard error is 18.6%. The maximum budget analyzed was $850,000, which resulted in an average standard error of 7.6 %. (Author 's abstract)

Regional flow duration curves: Geostatistical techniques versus multivariate regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugliese, Alessio; Farmer, William H.; Castellarin, Attilio; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-01-01

A period-of-record flow duration curve (FDC) represents the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of daily streamflows. Prediction of FDCs is of great importance for locations characterized by sparse or missing streamflow observations. We present a detailed comparison of two methods which are capable of predicting an FDC at ungauged basins: (1) an adaptation of the geostatistical method, Top-kriging, employing a linear weighted average of dimensionless empirical FDCs, standardised with a reference streamflow value; and (2) regional multiple linear regression of streamflow quantiles, perhaps the most common method for the prediction of FDCs at ungauged sites. In particular, Top-kriging relies on a metric for expressing the similarity between catchments computed as the negative deviation of the FDC from a reference streamflow value, which we termed total negative deviation (TND). Comparisons of these two methods are made in 182 largely unregulated river catchments in the southeastern U.S. using a three-fold cross-validation algorithm. Our results reveal that the two methods perform similarly throughout flow-regimes, with average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies 0.566 and 0.662, (0.883 and 0.829 on log-transformed quantiles) for the geostatistical and the linear regression models, respectively. The differences between the reproduction of FDC's occurred mostly for low flows with exceedance probability (i.e. duration) above 0.98.

Water resources of Monroe County, New York, water years 1997-99, with emphasis on water quality in the Irondequoit Creek basin—Atmospheric deposition, ground water, streamflow, trends in water quality, and chemical loads to Irondequoit Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, Donald A.

2003-01-01

Irondequoit Creek drains 169 square miles in the eastern part of Monroe County. Over time, nutrients transported by Irondequoit Creek to Irondequoit Bay on Lake Ontario have contributed to the eutrophication of the bay. Sewage-treatment-plant effluent, a major source of nutrients to the creek and its tributaries, was eliminated from the basin in 1979 by diversion to a regional wastewater-treatment facility, but sediment and contaminants from nonpoint sources continue to enter the creek and Irondequoit Bay.This report, the fourth in a series of reports that present interpretive analyses of the hydrologic data collected in Monroe County since 1984, interprets data from four surface-water monitoring sites in the Irondequoit Creek basin—Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills, East Branch Allen Creek at Pittsford, Allen Creek near Rochester, and Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road. It also interprets data from three sites in the the Genesee River basin—Oatka Creek at Garbutt, Honeoye Creek at Honeoye Falls, and Black Creek at Churchville—as well as the Genesee River at Charlotte Pump Station, and also from a site on Northrup Creek at North Greece. The Northrup Creek site drains a 23.5-square-mile basin in western Monroe County, and provides information on surface-water quality in streams west of the Genesee River and on loads of nutrients delivered to Long Pond, a small eutrophic embayment of Lake Ontario. The report also includes water-level and water-quality data from nine observation wells in Ellison Park, and atmospheric-deposition data from a collection site at Mendon Ponds County Park.Average annual loads of some chemical constituents in atmospheric deposition for 1997–99 differed considerably from those for the long-term period 1984–96. Ammonia and potassium loads for 1997-99 were 144 and 118 percent greater, respectively, than for the previous period. Sodium and ammonia + organic nitrogen loads were 87 and 60 percent greater, respectively. Average annual loads of sulfate and orthophosphate for 1997-99 were 36 and 30 percent lower, respectively, than for the previous period.Loads of all nutrients deposited on the Irondequoit basin from atmospheric sources during 1997–99 greatly exceeded those transported by Irondequoit Creek. The ammonia load deposited on the basin was 139 times the load transported at Blossom Road (the most downstream site); the ammonia + organic nitrogen load was 6.3 times greater, orthophosphate 7.5 times greater, total phosphorus 1.3 times greater and nitrite + nitrate 1.5 times greater. Average yields of dissolved chloride and dissolved sulfate from atmospheric sources were much smaller than those transported by streamflow at Blossom Road.chloride was about 2 percent and sulfate about 8 percent of the amount transported.Trends in concentration of chemical constituents in surface water generally can be attributed to changes in land use, annual and seasonal variations in streamflow, and annual variations in the application of road salt to county highways and roads.Concentrations of several constituents in streams of the Irondequoit Creek basin showed statistically significant (α=0.05) trends from the beginning of their period of record through 1999. The constituent with the greatest number of significant trends was ammonia + organic nitrogen, with downward trends ranging from 4.1 to 5.6 percent per year at Allen Creek, Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road, and East Branch Allen Creek. Orthophosphate showed an upward trend of 4.1 percent per year at Irondequoit Creek at Railroad Mills (the most upstream site). Dissolved chloride showed upward trends at Railroad Mills, Allen Creek, and Blossom Road. No trends in volatile suspended solids were noted at any of the four Irondequoit basin sites.Northrup Creek showed significant downward trends in concentrations of ammonia + organic nitrogen (3.3 percent per year), total phosphorus (3.4 percent per year), and orthophosphate (5.5 percent per year), and an upward trend for dissolved sulfate (1.8 percent per year). The Genesee River at Charlotte Pump Station showed downward trends of 6.1 percent per year for ammonia + organic nitrogen and 0.1 percent per year for chloride, and upward trends of 1.7 percent per year for total phosphorus and 6.6 percent per year for orthophosphate.Mean annual yields (mass per unit area) of most constituents at the Irondequoit Creek basin sites were similar to those noted for the previous report period (1994–96). East Branch Allen Creek showed lower yields of all constituents during 1997–99 than previously, even though runoff during 1997–99 was greater. These lower yields are attributed to the construction of an upstream detention basin on East Branch Allen Creek in 1995.Statistical analysis of long-term (greater than 12 years) streamflow records for unregulated streams in Monroe County indicated that annual mean flows for water years 1997–99 were in the normal range (75th to 25th percentile), although Allen Creek continues to show a significant downward trend in mean monthly streamflow during the 1984–99 water years.

Characteristics of and Areas Contributing Recharge to Public-Supply Springs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Bruce P.; Smith, Kirk P.

2004-01-01

The geohydrologic and physical characteristics were determined for 28 public-supply springs, 27 of which are in western Massachusetts. Discharge ranged from zero at various small intermittent springs to more than 240 gallons per minute at Waubeeka Springs in Williamstown, Massachusetts. To determine the annual variability of spring discharge, discharge from 12 springs was measured during different seasonal conditions from June 2001 to November 2002, and the discharge from Red Mill Spring in Clarksburg, Massachusetts was recorded continuously from April 2002 to November 2002. The area contributing recharge to each spring was delineated on the basis of the geohydrologic conditions determined from reconnaissance investigations; these areas ranged from 0.010 to 0.682 square mile. Ground-water recharge, estimated on the basis of average discharge and the areas contributing recharge, ranged from 0.5 to 24.4 inches per year. High ground-water recharge rates for some of the high-discharge springs indicate that the areas contributing recharge for these springs may be too small. Detailed water-table mapping in the vicinity of two low-discharge springs indicates that the area contributing recharge to some of the smaller springs may be smaller than the area indicated by reconnaissance investigation. Monthly flow durations and low flow statistics were determined for the index streamflow-gaging stations for a 25-year period from 1976 to 2000. Annual hydrographs were prepared for each index station from median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area. A median monthly flow of 1 ft3/s/mi2 was used to split hydrographs into a high-flow period (November?May), and a low-flow period (June?October). The hydrographs were used to classify index stations into groups with similar median monthly flow durations. Index stations were divided into four regional groups, roughly paralleling the coast, to characterize streamflows for November to May; and into two groups, on the basis of base-flow index and percentage of sand and gravel in the contributing area, for June to October.

Preliminary assessment of streamflow characteristics for selected streams at Fort Gordon, Georgia, 1999-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamey, Timothy C.

2001-01-01

In 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, began collection of periodic streamflow data at four streams on the military base to assess and estimate streamflow characteristics of those streams for potential water-supply sources. Simple and reliable methods of determining streamflow characteristics of selected streams on the military base are needed for the initial implementation of the Fort Gordon Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan. Long-term streamflow data from the Butler Creek streamflow gaging station were used along with several concurrent discharge measurements made at three selected partial-record streamflow stations on Fort Gordon to determine selected low-flow streamflow characteristics. Streamflow data were collected and analyzed using standard U.S. Geological Survey methods and computer application programs to verify the use of simple drainage area to discharge ratios, which were used to estimate the low-flow characteristics for the selected streams. Low-flow data computed based on daily mean streamflow include: mean discharges for consecutive 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day period and low-flow estimates of 7Q10, 30Q2, 60Q2, and 90Q2 recurrence intervals. Flow-duration data also were determined for the 10-, 30-, 50-, 70-, and 90-percent exceedence flows. Preliminary analyses of the streamflow indicate that the flow duration and selected low-flow statistics for the selected streams averages from about 0.15 to 2.27 cubic feet per square mile. The long-term gaged streamflow data indicate that the streamflow conditions for the period analyzed were in the 50- to 90-percent flow range, or in which streamflow would be exceeded about 50 to 90 percent of the time.

Two Topics in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting: Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Precipitation Downscaling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal; Walker, Greg; Mahanama, Sarith; Reichle, Rolf

2012-01-01

Continental-scale offline simulations with a land surface model are used to address two important issues in the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which the downscaling of seasonal precipitation forecasts, if it could be done accurately, would improve streamflow forecasts. The reduction in streamflow forecast skill (with forecasted streamflow measured against observations) associated with adding noise to a soil moisture field is found to be, to first order, proportional to the average reduction in the accuracy of the soil moisture field itself. This result has implications for streamflow forecast improvement under satellite-based soil moisture measurement programs. In the second and more idealized ("perfect model") analysis, precipitation downscaling is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only if two conditions are met: (i) evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance, and (ii) the subgrid spatial variance of precipitation is adequately large. In the large-scale continental region studied (the conterminous United States), these two conditions are met in only a somewhat limited area.

Historical groundwater trends in northern New England and relations with streamflow and climatic variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2013-01-01

Water-level trends spanning 20, 30, 40, and 50 years were tested using month-end groundwater levels in 26, 12, 10, and 3 wells in northern New England (Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont), respectively. Groundwater levels for 77 wells were used in interannual correlations with meteorological and hydrologic variables related to groundwater. Trends in the contemporary groundwater record (20 and 30 years) indicate increases (rises) or no substantial change in groundwater levels in all months for most wells throughout northern New England. The highest percentage of increasing 20-year trends was in February through March, May through August, and October through November. Forty-year trend results were mixed, whereas 50-year trends indicated increasing groundwater levels. Whereas most monthly groundwater levels correlate strongly with the previous month's level, monthly levels also correlate strongly with monthly streamflows in the same month; correlations of levels with monthly precipitation are less frequent and weaker than those with streamflow. Groundwater levels in May through August correlate strongly with annual (water year) streamflow. Correlations of groundwater levels with streamflow data and the relative richness of 50- to 100-year historical streamflow data suggest useful proxies for quantifying historical groundwater levels in light of the relatively short and fragmented groundwater data records presently available.

Low-flow characteristics and flow-duration statistics for selected USGS continuous-record streamgaging stations in North Carolina through 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, J. Curtis

2015-03-12

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Carolina Division of Water Resources, compiled updated low-flow characteristics and flow-duration statistics for selected continuous-record streamgages in North Carolina. The compilation of updated streamflow statistics provides regulators and planners with relevant hydrologic information reflective of the recent droughts, which can be used to better manage the quantity and quality of streams in North Carolina. Streamflow records available through the 2012 water year1 were used to determine the annual (based on climatic year2) and winter 7-day, 10-year (7Q10, W7Q10) low-flow discharges, the 30-day, 2-year (30Q2) low-flow discharge, and the 7-day, 2-year (7Q2) low-flow discharge. Consequently, streamflow records available through March 31, 2012 (or the 2011 climatic year) were used to determine the updated low-flow characteristics. Low-flow characteristics were published for 177 unregulated sites, 56 regulated sites, and 33 sites known or considered to be affected by varying degrees of minor regulation and (or) diversions upstream from the streamgages (266 sites total). The updated 7Q10 discharges were compared for 63 streamgages across North Carolina where (1) long-term streamflow record consisted of 30 or more climatic years of data available as of the 1998 climatic year, and (2) streamflows were not known to be regulated. The 7Q10 discharges did not change for 3 sites, whereas increases and decreases were noted at 5 and 55 sites, respectively. Positive changes (increases) ranged from 4.3 percent (site 362) to 34.1 percent (site 112) with a median of 13.2 percent. Negative percentage changes (decreases) ranged from –3.3 percent (site 514) to –80.0 percent (site 308) with a median of –22.2 percent. The median percentage change for all 63 streamgages was –18.4 percent. Streamflow statistics determined as a part of this compilation included minimum, mean, maximum, and flow-duration statistics of daily mean discharges for categorical periods. Flow-duration statistics based on the daily mean discharge records were compiled in this study for the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles. Flow-duration statistics were determined for each complete water year of record at a streamgage as well as the available period of record (or selected periods if flows were regulated) and selected seasonal, monthly, and calendar day periods. In addition to the streamflow statistics compiled for each of the water years, the number of days the daily mean discharge was at or below the 10th percentile was summed for each water year as well as the number of events during the water year when streamflow was consistently at or below the 10th percentile. All low-flow characteristics for the streamgages were added into the StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for North Carolina. The minimum, mean, maximum, and flow-duration statistics of daily mean discharges based on the available (or selected if regulated flows) period of record were updated in the North Carolina StreamStatsDB. However, for the selected seasonal, monthly, calendar day, and annual water year periods, tab-delimited American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) tables of the streamflow statistics are available online to users from a link provided in the StreamStats application. 1The annual period from October 1 through September 30, designated by the year in which the period ends. 2The annual period from April 1 through March 31, designated by the year in which the period begins.

Effects of streamflows on stream-channel morphology in the eastern Niobrara National Scenic River, Nebraska, 1988–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaepe, Nathaniel J.; Alexander, Jason S.; Folz-Donahue, Kiernan

2016-03-09

Changes in channel metrics generally corresponded to changes in streamflow conditions, but other than changes in incipient flood-plain area, these changes were small and were not measured in all three segments simultaneously. Increases in total channel width (except in segment 1) and incipient flood-plain area between 1993 and 1999 corresponded to increases in streamflow. Channel narrowing (except in segment 1) between 1999 and 2003 corresponded to lower summer streamflows and extended durations of very low summer streamflow. Although the pattern of low summer streamflow and extended durations of very low summer streamflow continued during the 2004–6 period and at the beginning of the 2007–10 period, no further narrowing was measured. Consistent tributary summer inflows help to explain the resistance of segments 2 and 3 to further narrowing. Because segment 1 is already much narrower than segments 2 and 3, its average current velocity is likely to be swifter and, therefore, competent to offset further effects of the processes that led to its narrowness.

Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2016-01-01

Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2016-12-01

Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

Suspended-Sediment Loads and Yields in the North Santiam River Basin, Oregon, Water Years 1999-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bragg, Heather M.; Sobieszczyk, Steven; Uhrich, Mark A.; Piatt, David R.

2007-01-01

The North Santiam River provides drinking water to the residents and businesses of the city of Salem, Oregon, and many surrounding communities. Since 1998, water-quality data, including turbidity, were collected continuously at monitoring stations throughout the basin as part of the North Santiam River Basin Turbidity and Suspended Sediment Study. In addition, sediment samples have been collected over a range of turbidity and streamflow values. Regression models were developed between the instream turbidity and suspended-sediment concentration from the samples collected from each monitoring station. The models were then used to estimate the daily and annual suspended-sediment loads and yields. For water years 1999-2004, suspended-sediment loads and yields were estimated for each station. Annual suspended-sediment loads and yields were highest during water years 1999 and 2000. A drought during water year 2001 resulted in the lowest suspended-sediment loads and yields for all monitoring stations. High-turbidity events that were unrelated or disproportional to increased streamflow occurred at several of the monitoring stations during the period of study. These events highlight the advantage of estimating suspended-sediment loads and yields from instream turbidity rather than from streamflow alone.

Water resources of the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freethey, Geoffrey W.; Scully, David R.

1980-01-01

Ground-water and surface-water systems of Cook Inlet basin, Alaska, are analyzed. Geologic and topographic features that control the movement and regional availability of ground water are explained and illustrated. Five aquifer systems beneath the most populous areas are described. Estimates of ground-water yield were determined for the region by using ground-water data for the populated areas and by extrapolating known subsurface conditions and interpreting subsurface conditions from surficial features in the other areas. Area maps of generalized geology, Quaternary sediment thickness, and general availability of ground water are shown. Surface-water resources are summarized by describing how basin characteristics affect the discharge in streams. Seasonal trend of streamflow for three types of streams is described. Regression equations for 4 streamflow characteristics (annual, monthly minimum, and maximum discharge) were obtained by using gaging station streamflow characteristics and 10 basin characteristics. In the 24 regression equations presented, drainage area is the most significant basin characteristic, but 5 others are used. Maps of mean annual unit runoff and minimum unit yield for 7 consecutive days with a recurrence interval of 10 years are shown. Historic discharge data at gaging stations is tabulated and representative low-flow and flood-flow frequency curves are shown. (USGS)

Spatial Correlation Of Streamflows: An Analytical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-12-01

The interwoven space and time variability of climate and landscape properties results in complex and non-linear hydrological response of streamflow dynamics. Understanding how meteorologic and morphological characteristics of catchments affect similarity/dissimilarity of streamflow timeseries at their outlets represents a scientific challenge with application in water resources management, ecological studies and regionalization approaches aimed to predict streamflows in ungauged areas. In this study, we establish an analytical approach to estimate the spatial correlation of daily streamflows in two arbitrary locations within a given hydrologic district or river basin at seasonal and annual time scales. The method is based on a stochastic description of the coupled streamflow dynamics at the outlet of two catchments. The framework aims to express the correlation of daily streamflows at two locations along a river network as a function of a limited number of physical parameters characterizing the main underlying hydrological drivers, that include climate conditions, precipitation regime and catchment drainage rates. The proposed method portrays how heterogeneity of climate and landscape features affect the spatial variability of flow regimes along river systems. In particular, we show that frequency and intensity of synchronous effective rainfall events in the relevant contributing catchments are the main driver of the spatial correlation of daily discharge, whereas only pronounced differences in the drainage rate of the two basins bear a significant effect on the streamflow correlation. The topological arrangement of the two outlets also influences the underlying streamflow correlation, as we show that nested catchments tend to maximize the spatial correlation of flow regimes. The application of the method to a set of catchments in the South-Eastern US suggests the potential of the proposed tool for the characterization of spatial connections of flow regimes in the absence of discharge measurements.

Missouri StreamStats—A water-resources web application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Jarrett T.

2018-01-31

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains and operates more than 8,200 continuous streamgages nationwide. Types of data that may be collected, computed, and stored for streamgages include streamgage height (water-surface elevation), streamflow, and water quality. The streamflow data allow scientists and engineers to calculate streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood (also known as the 100-year flood), the mean flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, which are used by managers to make informed water resource management decisions, at each streamgage location. Researchers, regulators, and managers also commonly need physical characteristics (basin characteristics) that describe the unique properties of a basin. Common uses for streamflow statistics and basin characteristics include hydraulic design, water-supply management, water-use appropriations, and flood-plain mapping for establishing flood-insurance rates and land-use zones. The USGS periodically publishes reports that update the values of basin characteristics and streamflow statistics at selected gaged locations (locations with streamgages), but these studies usually only update a subset of streamgages, making data retrieval difficult. Additionally, streamflow statistics and basin characteristics are most often needed at ungaged locations (locations without streamgages) for which published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics do not exist. Missouri StreamStats is a web-based geographic information system that was created by the USGS in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources to provide users with access to an assortment of tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain the most recent published streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for streamgage locations and to automatically calculate selected basin characteristics and estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations.

An investigation of the role of winter and spring precipitation as drivers of streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters using tree-ring reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, S. E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Martin, J. T.; Pederson, G. T.

2017-12-01

The Missouri River supplies water to over 3 million basin residents and is a driving force for the nation's agricultural and energy sectors. However, with changing climate and declining snowpack in western North America, seasonal water yields are becoming less predictable, revealing a gap in our understanding of regional hydroclimate and drivers of streamflow within the basin. By analyzing the relationship between seasonal precipitation and streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters sub-basin, this study seeks to expand our knowledge based on the instrumental record alone. Here we present the first annually-resolved tree-ring reconstruction of spring precipitation for the Missouri River Headwaters. This reconstruction along with existing tree-ring reconstructions of April 1 snow-water equivalence (SWE) (Pederson et al. 2011) and natural streamflow (Martin, J.T. & Pederson, G.T., personal communication, June 2017) are used to test the feasibility of detecting a variable influence of winter and spring precipitation on streamflow over past centuries, and relative to the modern period. Initial analyses indicate that April 1 SWE is a significant control on streamflow, however, the April 1 SWE record does not fully account for anomalies observed in the streamflow record. This study therefore seeks to determine whether spring precipitation can account for some of this asynchronous variability observed between the April 1 SWE and streamflow records. Aside from improved understanding of the relationship between hydroclimate and streamflow in the headwaters of the Missouri River, our findings offer insights relating to changing contributions from snowmelt and spring precipitation, and long-term hydrologic variability and trends relevant to water resource management and planning efforts.

Impact of climate variability and anthropogenic activity on streamflow in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, Tibetan Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chong; Li, Daiqing; Gao, Yanni; Liu, Wenfeng; Zhang, Linbo

2017-07-01

Under the impacts of climate variability and human activities, there is violent fluctuation for streamflow in the large basins in China. Therefore, it is crucial to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow fluctuation for better water resources planning and management. In this study, the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) was chosen as the study area. Long-term hydrological data for the TRHR were collected in order to investigate the changes in annual runoff during the period of 1956-2012. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, moving t test, Pettitt test, Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test, and the cumulative anomaly curve were used to identify trends and change points in the hydro-meteorological variables. Change point in runoff was identified in the three basins, which respectively occurred around the years 1989 and 1993, dividing the long-term runoff series into a natural period and a human-induced period. Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In the human-induced period, climate variability was the main factor that increased (reduced) runoff in LRB and YARB (YRB) with contribution of more than 90 %, while the increasing (decreasing) percentage due to human activities only accounted for less than 10 %, showing that runoff in the TRHR is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities. The intra-annual distribution of runoff shifted gradually from a double peak pattern to a single peak pattern, which was mainly influenced by atmospheric circulation in the summer and autumn. The inter-annual variation in runoff was jointly controlled by the East Asian monsoon, the westerly, and Tibetan Plateau monsoons.

45 years of non-stationary hydrology over a forest plantation growth cycle, Coalburn catchment, Northern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkinshaw, Stephen J.; Bathurst, James C.; Robinson, Mark

2014-11-01

The Coalburn research catchment (1.5 km2) in Kielder Forest, Northern England, is a long-term project to study the effect of upland afforestation on hydrology. There is now a unique 45-year record; making it Britain's longest running forest hydrology research catchment. The site was instrumented in 1967, ploughed and planted in 1972/73 and the trees have now reached maturity. Hourly meteorological data have been measured since 1993 and these have enabled hydrological simulations to be carried out using the Shetran model for the period 1993-2011. The results from this work show that after ploughing there was an increase of around 50-100 mm in annual streamflow compared with the original upland grassland vegetation. However, the mature trees now show a decrease of around 250-300 mm in the annual streamflow compared with the original vegetation and a decrease of around 350 mm in the annual streamflow compared with when the site was ploughed. The simulation results show very clearly the non-stationary nature of the catchment during 1993-2011 with an annual increase in intercepted evaporation and a decrease in discharge as the trees grow. Simulation results also show that peak discharges are higher for a cover of smaller trees compared with taller trees. However, the results suggest that the bigger the event the smaller is the difference, i.e. there is absolute convergence for the two different tree scenarios at higher discharges. The study shows how modelling can compensate for data deficiencies, to maximise outcomes. As a rare example of long-term analysis of non-stationary catchment behaviour it also provides real evidence of change that would otherwise have had to be inferred theoretically.

Application of at-site peak-streamflow frequency analyses for very low annual exceedance probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Kiang, Julie E.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2017-07-17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has investigated statistical methods for probabilistic flood hazard assessment to provide guidance on very low annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimation of peak-streamflow frequency and the quantification of corresponding uncertainties using streamgage-specific data. The term “very low AEP” implies exceptionally rare events defined as those having AEPs less than about 0.001 (or 1 × 10–3 in scientific notation or for brevity 10–3). Such low AEPs are of great interest to those involved with peak-streamflow frequency analyses for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Flood frequency analyses at streamgages are most commonly based on annual instantaneous peak streamflow data and a probability distribution fit to these data. The fitted distribution provides a means to extrapolate to very low AEPs. Within the United States, the Pearson type III probability distribution, when fit to the base-10 logarithms of streamflow, is widely used, but other distribution choices exist. The USGS-PeakFQ software, implementing the Pearson type III within the Federal agency guidelines of Bulletin 17B (method of moments) and updates to the expected moments algorithm (EMA), was specially adapted for an “Extended Output” user option to provide estimates at selected AEPs from 10–3 to 10–6. Parameter estimation methods, in addition to product moments and EMA, include L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacings (maximum spacing estimation). This study comprehensively investigates multiple distributions and parameter estimation methods for two USGS streamgages (01400500 Raritan River at Manville, New Jersey, and 01638500 Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland). The results of this study specifically involve the four methods for parameter estimation and up to nine probability distributions, including the generalized extreme value, generalized log-normal, generalized Pareto, and Weibull. Uncertainties in streamflow estimates for corresponding AEP are depicted and quantified as two primary forms: quantile (aleatoric [random sampling] uncertainty) and distribution-choice (epistemic [model] uncertainty). Sampling uncertainties of a given distribution are relatively straightforward to compute from analytical or Monte Carlo-based approaches. Distribution-choice uncertainty stems from choices of potentially applicable probability distributions for which divergence among the choices increases as AEP decreases. Conventional goodness-of-fit statistics, such as Cramér-von Mises, and L-moment ratio diagrams are demonstrated in order to hone distribution choice. The results generally show that distribution choice uncertainty is larger than sampling uncertainty for very low AEP values.

Persistence and Detectability of Hydrologic Changes Following Multiple Timber Harvest Entries in the Oregon Coast Range: Alsea Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stednick, J. D.; Ice, G. G.; Hale, V. C.

2006-12-01

The original Alsea Watershed Study (1959-1973) was a paired study in the Oregon Coast Range designed to assess the physical and biological effects of timber harvesting on water and salmonid resources. The 3 streams chosen for study, Deer Creek, Flynn Creek, and Needle Branch, are tributaries of Drift Creek, which flows into Alsea Bay. The watersheds lie about 16 km from the Pacific Ocean, and have a maritime climate, with mean annual precipitation approximately 250 cm, almost all of which falls as rain from October through March. Flynn Creek served as an undisturbed control watershed, Deer Creek had 3 patch cuts (25% of the watershed area) with a streamside vegetation buffer, and Needle Branch was clearcut (85%) with no streamside buffer. The results of the original Alsea Study showed an increase in annual water yield and 3-day peak flows for Needle Branch, and no significant change for any streamflow metric (annual yield, peak flow, or low flows) on Deer Creek. Because the watersheds "generally appear to be returning to pre-logging conditions" the authors of the original study believed hydrologic recovery had occurred. The streamflow gauging network was reestablished in 1990 as the New Alsea Watershed Study. Additional streamflow monitoring (1990-1996) suggested that the watersheds deemed to be "recovered" still showed departures from the pre-treatment relations. Streamflow monitoring from the same period suggested 24 years for vegetation regrowth to return to hydrologic functions similar to the pretreatment. A literature review of paired watershed studies suggested that in the Pacific Northwest at least 25% of the watershed area needed to be harvested to be detectable with streamflow monitoring. Flynn Creek was designated a long-term Research Natural Area by the USDA Forest Service in 1976, and remains an undisturbed temperate coniferous forested watershed. Deer Creek had a second timber harvesting entry in 1978 of 20 ha and two units of 14.5 and 8.4 ha were logged in 1987 and 1988. Approximately 39% of the watershed has now been harvested. Since the original study, forest management on Needle Branch has included precommercial and commercial thinning. Approximately 25% of the middle third of the watershed was precommercially thinned in 1981. In 1997-1998 approximately 40% of this area was commercially thinned with a 30% basal area removal. With 15 years of additional streamflow data, are the 25% basal area removal and 24 year hydrologic recovery axioms true for the Alsea study watersheds?

Limits on characteristics of invertebrate assemblages associated with streamflow patterns in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, C.; Brasher, A.; May, J.

2007-12-01

River restoration depends on re-establishment of the range of physical and biological processes that comprise the river ecosystem. Streamflow is the definitive physical processes for river ecosystems, so hydrologic alteration represents a potentially significant issue to be addressed by restoration efforts. Given adaptation of lotic species to naturally variable streamflow patterns over evolutionary time scales, however, lotic communities are resilient to at least some forms of hydrologic variability. As a result, river restoration may be successful despite limited but biologically insignificant hydrologic alteration. The responses of benthic invertebrate assemblages to variation in streamflow patterns across the western United States were investigated to identify biologically important forms and magnitudes of hydrologic variability. Biological responses to streamflow patterns were analyzed in terms of ceilings and floors on invertebrate assemblage diversity and structure using a non-parametric screening procedure and quantile regression. Variability at daily and monthly time scales was the most common streamflow pattern associated with broad metrics of invertebrate assemblages including abundance; richness and relative abundance of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera and non-insects; dominance; and diversity. Low flow magnitude and annual variability were associated with richness and trophic structure. The frequency, magnitude, and duration of high flows were associated with abundance and richness. Longer term streamflow metrics (calculated over at least 5 years) were more important than recent flows (30 and 100 days prior to invertebrate sampling). The results can be used as general guidance about when hydrologic alteration is likely to be an important factor and what streamflow patterns may need to be re-established for successful river restoration.

Storage requirements for Arkansas streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patterson, James Lee

1968-01-01

The supply of good-quality surface water in Arkansas is abundant. owing to seasonal and annual variability of streamflow, however, storage must be provided to insure dependable year-round supplies in most of the State. Storage requirements for draft rates that are as much as 60 percent of the mean annual flow at 49 continuous-record gaging stations can be obtained from tabular data in this report. Through regional analyses of streamflow data, the State was divided into three regions. Draft-storage diagrams for each region provide a means of estimating storage requirements for sites on streams where data are scant, provided the drainage area, the mean annual flow, and the low-flow index are known. These data are tabulated for 53 gaging stations used in the analyses and for 132 partial-record sites where only base-flow measurements have been made. Mean annual flow can be determined for any stream whose drainage lies within the State by using the runoff map in this report. Low-flow indices can be estimated by correlating base flows, determined from several discharge measurements, with concurrent flows at nearby continuous-record gaging stations, whose low-flow indices have been determined.

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2013-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). These peak flows are also needed for effective floodplain management. Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are in general projected to increase during the 21st century (Hayhoe and other, 2007). It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This Fact Sheet, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Scientific Investigations Report (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5080/.

Modeled intermittency risk for small streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Poff, N. LeRoy

2015-01-01

Longer, drier summers projected for arid and semi-arid regions of western North America under climate change are likely to have enormous consequences for water resources and river-dependent ecosystems. Many climate change scenarios for this region involve decreases in mean annual streamflow, late summer precipitation and late-summer streamflow in the coming decades. Intermittent streams are already common in this region, and it is likely that minimum flows will decrease and some perennial streams will shift to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in timing and magnitude of precipitation and runoff, combined with increases in temperature. To understand current intermittency among streams and analyze the potential for streams to shift from perennial to intermittent under a warmer climate, we analyzed historic flow records from streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Approximately two-thirds of 115 gaged stream reaches included in our analysis are currently perennial and the rest have some degree of intermittency. Dry years with combinations of high temperatures and low precipitation were associated with more zero-flow days. Mean annual flow was positively related to minimum flows, suggesting that potential future declines in mean annual flows will correspond with declines in minimum flows. The most important landscape variables for predicting low flow metrics were precipitation, percent snow, potential evapotranspiration, soils, and drainage area. Perennial streams in the UCRB that have high minimum-flow variability and low mean flows are likely to be most susceptible to increasing streamflow intermittency in the future.

Statistical downscaling for winter streamflow in Douro River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jesús Esteban Parra, María; Hidalgo Muñoz, José Manuel; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz Fortis, Sonia; Castro Díez, Yolanda

2015-04-01

In this paper we have obtained climate change projections for winter flow of the Douro River in the period 2071-2100 by applying the technique of Partial Regression and various General Circulation Models of CMIP5. The streamflow data base used has been provided by the Center for Studies and Experimentation of Public Works, CEDEX. Series from gauing stations and reservoirs with less than 10% of missing data (filled by regression with well correlated neighboring stations) have been considered. The homogeneity of these series has been evaluated through the Pettit test and degree of human alteration by the Common Area Index. The application of these criteria led to the selection of 42 streamflow time series homogeneously distributed over the basin, covering the period 1951-2011. For these streamflow data, winter seasonal values were obtained by averaging the monthly values from January to March. Statistical downscaling models for the streamflow have been fitted using as predictors the main atmospheric modes of variability over the North Atlantic region. These modes have been obtained using winter sea level pressure data of the NCEP reanalysis, averaged for the months from December to February. Period 1951-1995 was used for calibration, while 1996-2011 period was used in validating the adjusted models. In general, these models are able to reproduce about 70% of the variability of the winter streamflow of the Douro River. Finally, the obtained statistical models have been applied to obtain projections for 2071-2100 period, using outputs from different CMIP5 models under the RPC8.5 scenario. The results for the end of the century show modest declines of winter streamflow in this river for most of the models. Keywords: Statistical downscaling, streamflow, Douro River, climate change. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Testing an automated method to estimate ground-water recharge from streamflow records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rutledge, A.T.; Daniel, C.C.

1994-01-01

The computer program, RORA, allows automated analysis of streamflow hydrographs to estimate ground-water recharge. Output from the program, which is based on the recession-curve-displacement method (often referred to as the Rorabaugh method, for whom the program is named), was compared to estimates of recharge obtained from a manual analysis of 156 years of streamflow record from 15 streamflow-gaging stations in the eastern United States. Statistical tests showed that there was no significant difference between paired estimates of annual recharge by the two methods. Tests of results produced by the four workers who performed the manual method showed that results can differ significantly between workers. Twenty-two percent of the variation between manual and automated estimates could be attributed to having different workers perform the manual method. The program RORA will produce estimates of recharge equivalent to estimates produced manually, greatly increase the speed od analysis, and reduce the subjectivity inherent in manual analysis.

Geological controls on isotopic signatures of streamflow: results from a nested catchment experiment in Luxembourg (Europe)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Laurent; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Hissler, Christophe; Martinez-Carreras, Nuria; Gourdol, Laurent; Klaus, Julian; François Iffly, Jean; Barnich, François; Stewart, Mike K.

2014-05-01

Controls of geology and topography on hydrological metrics, like summer low flow (Grant and Tague, 2004) or dynamic storage (Sayama et al., 2011), have been identified in nested catchment experiments. However, most tracer-based studies on streamflow generation have been carried out in small (10 km2) homogenous catchments (Klaus and McDonnell, 2013). The controlling effects of catchment physiography on how catchments store and release water, and how this eventually controls stream isotope behaviour over a large range of scale are poorly understood. Here, we present results from a nested catchment analysis in the Alzette River basin (Luxembourg, Europe). Our hydro-climatological network consists of 16 recording streamgauges and 21 pluviographs. Catchment areas range from 0.47 to 285 km2, with clean and mixed combinations of distinct geologies ranging from schists to marls, sandstone, dolomite and limestone. Our objective was to identify geological controls on (i) winter runoff ratios, (ii) maximum storage and (iii) isotopic signatures in streamflow. For each catchment we determined average runoff ratios from winter season precipitation-discharge double-mass curves. Maximum catchment storage was based on the dynamic storage change approach of Sayama et al. (2011). Changes in isotopic signatures of streamflow were documented along individual catchment flow duration curves. We found strong correlations between average winter runoff ratios, maximum storage and the prevailing geological settings. Catchments with impermeable bedrock (e.g. marls or schists) were characterised by small storage potential and high average filling ratios. As a consequence, these catchments also exhibited the highest average runoff ratios. In catchments underlain by permeable bedrock (e.g. sandstone), storage potential was significantly higher and runoff ratios were considerably smaller. The isotopic signatures of streamflow showed large differences between catchments. In catchments dominated by permeable bedrock, isotopic signatures of streamflow remained stable throughout the entire flow duration curve consistent with a large storage and mixing potential. On less permeable bedrock substrate, we have observed that isotopic signatures in streamflow were much more variable, due to reduced storage volume and comparatively smaller mixing potential. Other metrics such as catchment size and flowpath length exerted a smaller secondary control on isotopic signatures of streamflow in the Alzette River sub-basins. Tague, C., Grant, G.E., 2004. A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette River Basin, Oregon. Water Resources Research, 40(4), doi:10.1029/2003WR002629 Sayama, T., McDonnell, J.J., Dhakal, A., Sullivan, K., 2011. How much water can a watershed store ? Hydrological Processes 25, 3899-3908. Klaus, J., McDonnell, J.J., 2013. Hydrograph separation using stable isotopes: Review and evaluation. Journal of Hydrology 505, 47-64.

Applying a simple water-energy balance framework to predict the climate sensitivity of streamflow over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-12-01

The prediction of climate effects on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources is one of the major research questions in hydrology. Conceptual water-energy balance models can be used to gain a first order estimate of how long-term average streamflow is changing with a change in water and energy supply. A common framework for investigation of this question is based on the Budyko hypothesis, which links hydrological response to aridity. Recently, Renner et al. (2011) introduced the CCUW hypothesis, which is based on the assumption that the total efficiency of the catchment ecosystem to use the available water and energy for actual evapotranspiration remains constant even under climate changes. Here, we confront the climate sensitivity approaches (including several versions of Budyko's approach and the CCUW) with data of more than 400 basins distributed over the continental United States. We first map an estimate of the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation using long-term average data of the period 1949-2003. This provides a hydro-climatic status of the respective basins as well as their expected proportional effect on changes in climate. Next, by splitting the data in two periods, we (i) analyse the long-term average changes in hydro-climatolgy, we (ii) use the different climate sensitivity methods to predict the change in streamflow given the observed changes in water and energy supply and (iii) we apply a quantitative approach to separate the impacts of changes in the long-term average climate from basin characteristics change on streamflow. This allows us to evaluate the observed changes in streamflow as well as to evaluate the impact of basin changes on the validity of climate sensitivity approaches. The apparent increase of streamflow in the majority of basins in the US is dominated by a climate trend towards increased humidity. It is further evident that impacts of changes in basin characteristics appear in parallel with climate changes. There are coherent spatial patterns with basins of increasing catchment efficiency being dominant in the western and central parts of the US. A hot spot of decreasing efficiency is found within the US Midwest. The impact of basin changes on the prediction is large and can be twice as the observed change signal. However, we find that both, the CCUW hypothesis and the approaches using the Budyko hypothesis, show minimal deviations between observed and predicted changes in streamflow for basins where a dominance of climatic changes and low influences of basin changes have been found. Thus, climate sensitivity methods can be regarded as valid tools if we expect climate changes only and neglect any direct anthropogenic influences.

August Median Streamflow on Ungaged Streams in Eastern Aroostook County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.; Tasker, Gary D.; Nielsen, Martha G.

2003-01-01

Methods for estimating August median streamflow were developed for ungaged, unregulated streams in the eastern part of Aroostook County, Maine, with drainage areas from 0.38 to 43 square miles and mean basin elevations from 437 to 1,024 feet. Few long-term, continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with small drainage areas were available from which to develop the equations; therefore, 24 partial-record gaging stations were established in this investigation. A mathematical technique for estimating a standard low-flow statistic, August median streamflow, at partial-record stations was applied by relating base-flow measurements at these stations to concurrent daily flows at nearby long-term, continuous-record streamflow- gaging stations (index stations). Generalized least-squares regression analysis (GLS) was used to relate estimates of August median streamflow at gaging stations to basin characteristics at these same stations to develop equations that can be applied to estimate August median streamflow on ungaged streams. GLS accounts for varying periods of record at the gaging stations and the cross correlation of concurrent streamflows among gaging stations. Twenty-three partial-record stations and one continuous-record station were used for the final regression equations. The basin characteristics of drainage area and mean basin elevation are used in the calculated regression equation for ungaged streams to estimate August median flow. The equation has an average standard error of prediction from -38 to 62 percent. A one-variable equation uses only drainage area to estimate August median streamflow when less accuracy is acceptable. This equation has an average standard error of prediction from -40 to 67 percent. Model error is larger than sampling error for both equations, indicating that additional basin characteristics could be important to improved estimates of low-flow statistics. Weighted estimates of August median streamflow, which can be used when making estimates at partial-record or continuous-record gaging stations, range from 0.03 to 11.7 cubic feet per second or from 0.1 to 0.4 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow on ungaged streams in the eastern part of Aroostook County, within the range of acceptable explanatory variables, range from 0.03 to 30 cubic feet per second or 0.1 to 0.7 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow per square mile of drainage area generally increase as mean elevation and drainage area increase.

Hydrologic connectivity in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica: System function and changes over two decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wlostowski, A. N.; Gooseff, M. N.; Bernzott, E. D.; McKnight, D. M.; Jaros, C.; Lyons, W.

2013-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is one of the coldest (average annual air temperature of -18°C) and driest (<10cm water equivalent of precip per year) places on earth. Despite the harsh climatic conditions of this landscape, a thriving microbial and invertebrate ecosystem exists, but is limited by the availability of liquid water. So, it is important to quantify temporal and spatial dynamics of hydrologic and ecological connections in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Intermittent glacial meltwater streams connect glaciers to closed basin lakes and compose the most prominent hydrologic nexus in the valleys. This study uses of 20+ years of stream temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), and discharge data to enhance our quantitative understanding of the temporal dynamics of hydrologic connections along the glacier-stream-lake continuum. Annually, streamflow occurs for a relatively brief 10-12 week period of the austral summer. Longer streams are more prone to intermittent dry periods during the flow season, making for a harsher ecological environment than shorter streams. Diurnal streamflow variation occurs primarily as a result of changing solar postion relative to the source-glacier surfaces. Therfore, different streams predictably experience high flows and low flows at different times of the day. Electrical conductivity also exhibits diel variations, but the nature of EC-discharge relationships differs among streams throughout the valley. Longer streams have higher EC values and lower discharges than shorter streams, suggesting that hyporheic zones act as a significant solute source and hydrologic reservoir along longer streams. Water temperatures are consistently warmer in longer streams, relative to shorter streams, likely due to prolonged exposure to incident radiation with longer surface water residence times. Inter-annually, several shorter streams in the region show significant increases in Q10, Q30, Q50, Q70, Q90, and/or Q100 flows across the 20+ year record, indicating a long-term non-stationarity in hydrologic system dynamics. The tight coupling between surface waters and the glacier surface energy balance bring forth remarkably consistent hydrologic patterns on the daily and annual timescales, providing a model system for understanding fundamental hydro-ecological connectivity. We are beginning to understand long-term inter-annual changes in hydrologic connections in this thermodynamically sensitive landscape, with the aid of well-maintained long-term data sets.

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Regan, R. Steven; Leaf, Andrew T.; Saad, David A.

2016-08-23

Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

History of irrigation and characteristics of streamflow in Nebraska, part of the North and South Platte River basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shaffer, F. Butler

1976-01-01

Statistics on streamflow for selected periods of time are presented for 28 gaging sites in the Nebraska part of the North and South Platte River basins. Monthly mean discharges, monthly means in percent of annual runoff, standard deviations, coefficients of variation, and monthly extremes are given. Also tabulated are probabilities of high discharges for 1 day and for 3, 7, 15, 30, and 60 consecutive days and of low discharges for 1 day and for 3, 7, 14, 30, and 60 consecutive days. All statistics are based on records that are representative of 1973 conditions of streamflow. Brief historical data are given for 27 of the principal irrigation canals diverting from the North and South Platte Rivers. (Woodard-USGS)

Hydrologic data for the Obed River watershed, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knight, Rodney R.; Wolfe, William J.; Law, George S.

2014-01-01

The Obed River watershed drains a 520-square-mile area of the Cumberland Plateau physiographic region in the Tennessee River basin. The watershed is underlain by conglomerate, sandstone, and shale of Pennsylvanian age, which overlie Mississippian-age limestone. The larger creeks and rivers of the Obed River system have eroded gorges through the conglomerate and sandstone into the deeper shale. The largest gorges are up to 400 feet deep and are protected by the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act as part of the Obed Wild and Scenic River, which is managed by the National Park Service. The growing communities of Crossville and Crab Orchard, Tennessee, are located upstream of the gorge areas of the Obed River watershed. The cities used about 5.8 million gallons of water per day for drinking water in 2010 from Lake Holiday and Stone Lake in the Obed River watershed and Meadow Park Lake in the Caney Fork River watershed. The city of Crossville operates a wastewater treatment plant that releases an annual average of about 2.2 million gallons per day of treated effluent to the Obed River, representing as much as 10 to 40 percent of the monthly average streamflow of the Obed River near Lancing about 35 miles downstream, during summer and fall. During the past 50 years (1960–2010), several dozen tributary impoundments and more than 2,000 small farm ponds have been constructed in the Obed River watershed. Synoptic streamflow measurements indicate a tendency towards dampened high flows and slightly increased low flows as the percentage of basin area controlled by impoundments increases.

2011 Souris River flood—Will it happen again?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nustad, Rochelle A.; Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-09-29

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000 square kilometer basin in the provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the state of North Dakota. Record setting rains in May and June of 2011 led to record flooding with peak annual streamflow values (762 cubic meters per second [m3/s]) more than twice that of any previously recorded peak streamflow and more than five times the estimated 100 year postregulation streamflow (142 m3/s) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station above Minot, North Dakota. Upstream from Minot, N. Dak., the Souris River is regulated by three reservoirs in Saskatchewan (Rafferty, Boundary, and Alameda) and Lake Darling in North Dakota. During the 2011 flood, the city of Minot, N. Dak., experienced devastating damages with more than 4,000 homes flooded and 11,000 evacuated. As a result, the Souris River Basin Task Force recommended the U.S. Geological Survey (in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission) develop a model for estimating the probabilities of future flooding and drought. The model that was developed took on four parts: (1) looking at past climate, (2) predicting future climate, (3) developing a streamflow model in response to certain climatic variables, and (4) combining future climate estimates with the streamflow model to predict future streamflow events. By taking into consideration historical climate record and trends in basin response to various climatic conditions, it was determined flood risk will remain high in the Souris River Basin until the wet climate state ends.

Water resources data for Pennsylvania, water year 1996. Volume 2. Susquehanna and Potomac River basins. Water-data report (Annual), 1 October 1995-30 September 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Durlin, R.R.; Schaffstall, W.P.

1997-07-01

This report, Volume, 2, contains (1) discharge records for 81 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, 16 partial-record stations, and 20 special study and miscellaneous streamflow sites; (2) elevation and contents records for 12 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water-quality records for 7 gaging stations and 46 ungaged stream sites; and (4) water-level records for 30 ground-water network observation wells. Site locations are shown in figures throughout the report.

Water-resources investigations in Wisconsin, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maertz, D.E.

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study are to provide continuous discharge records for selected rivers at specific sites to supply the needs for: regulation, analytical studies, definition of statistical properties, trends analysis, determination of the occurrence, and distribution of water in streams for planning. The project is also designed to determine lake levels and to provide discharge for floods, low-flow conditions, and for water-quality investigations. Requests for streamflow data and information relating to streamflow in Wisconsin are answered. Basic data are published annually in "Water Resources Data Wisconsin."

Calculating weighted estimates of peak streamflow statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Berenbrock, Charles; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2012-01-01

According to the Federal guidelines for flood-frequency estimation, the uncertainty of peak streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flow at a streamgage, can be reduced by combining the at-site estimate with the regional regression estimate to obtain a weighted estimate of the flow statistic. The procedure assumes the estimates are independent, which is reasonable in most practical situations. The purpose of this publication is to describe and make available a method for calculating a weighted estimate from the uncertainty or variance of the two independent estimates.

Estimating Watershed-Averaged Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Fluxes using Streamflow Measurements in a Semi-Arid, High Altitude Montane Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrington, C.; Gonzalez-Pinzon, R.

2014-12-01

Streamflow through the Middle Rio Grande Valley is largely driven by snowmelt pulses and monsoonal precipitation events originating in the mountain highlands of New Mexico (NM) and Colorado. Water managers rely on results from storage/runoff models to distribute this resource statewide and to allocate compact deliveries to Texas under the Rio Grande Compact agreement. Prevalent drought conditions and the added uncertainty of climate change effects in the American southwest have led to a greater call for accuracy in storage model parameter inputs. While precipitation and evapotranspiration measurements are subject to scaling and representativeness errors, streamflow readings remain relatively dependable and allow watershed-average water budget estimates. Our study seeks to show that by "Doing Hydrology Backwards" we can effectively estimate watershed-average precipitation and evapotranspiration fluxes in semi-arid landscapes of NM using fluctuations in streamflow data alone. We tested this method in the Valles Caldera National Preserve (VCNP) in the Jemez Mountains of central NM. This method will be further verified by using existing weather stations and eddy-covariance towers within the VCNP to obtain measured values to compare against our model results. This study contributes to further validate this technique as being successful in humid and semi-arid catchments as the method has already been verified as effective in the former setting.

Climatic change projections for winter streamflow in Guadalquivir river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jesús Esteban Parra, María; Hidalgo Muñoz, José Manuel; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz Fortis, Sonia; Castro Díez, Yolanda

2015-04-01

In this work we have obtained climate change projections for winter streamflow of the Guadalquivir River in the period 2071-2100 using the Principal Component Regression (PCR) method. The streamflow data base used has been provided by the Center for Studies and Experimentation of Public Works, CEDEX. Series from gauging stations and reservoirs with less than 10% of missing data (filled by regression with well correlated neighboring stations) have been considered. The homogeneity of these series has been evaluated through the Pettit test and degree of human alteration by the Common Area Index. The application of these criteria led to the selection of 13 streamflow time series homogeneously distributed over the basin, covering the period 1952-2011. For this streamflow data, winter seasonal values were obtained by averaging the monthly values from January to March. The PCR method has been applied using the Principal Components of the mean anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) in winter (December to February averaged) as predictors of streamflow for the development of a downscaled statistical model. The SLP database is the NCEP reanalysis covering the North Atlantic region, and the calibration and validation periods used for fitting and evaluating the ability of the model are 1952-1992 and 1993-2011, respectively. In general, using four Principal Components, regression models are able to explain up to 70% of the variance of the streamflow data. Finally, the statistical model obtained for the observational data was applied to the SLP data for the period 2071-2100, using the outputs of different GCMs of the CMIP5 under the RPC8.5 scenario. The results found for the end of the century show no significant changes or moderate decrease in the streamflow of this river for most GCMs in winter, but for some of them the decrease is very strong. Keywords: Statistical downscaling, streamflow, Guadalquivir River, climate change. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Hydrologic classification of rivers based on cluster analysis of dimensionless hydrologic signatures: Applications for environmental instream flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praskievicz, S. J.; Luo, C.

2017-12-01

Classification of rivers is useful for a variety of purposes, such as generating and testing hypotheses about watershed controls on hydrology, predicting hydrologic variables for ungaged rivers, and setting goals for river management. In this research, we present a bottom-up (based on machine learning) river classification designed to investigate the underlying physical processes governing rivers' hydrologic regimes. The classification was developed for the entire state of Alabama, based on 248 United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages that met criteria for length and completeness of records. Five dimensionless hydrologic signatures were derived for each gage: slope of the flow duration curve (indicator of flow variability), baseflow index (ratio of baseflow to average streamflow), rising limb density (number of rising limbs per unit time), runoff ratio (ratio of long-term average streamflow to long-term average precipitation), and streamflow elasticity (sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation). We used a Bayesian clustering algorithm to classify the gages, based on the five hydrologic signatures, into distinct hydrologic regimes. We then used classification and regression trees (CART) to predict each gaged river's membership in different hydrologic regimes based on climatic and watershed variables. Using existing geospatial data, we applied the CART analysis to classify ungaged streams in Alabama, with the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) catchment (average area 3 km2) as the unit of classification. The results of the classification can be used for meeting management and conservation objectives in Alabama, such as developing statewide standards for environmental instream flows. Such hydrologic classification approaches are promising for contributing to process-based understanding of river systems.

Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Schopp, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Methodologies were developed for estimating flood magnitudes at the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for unregulated or slightly regulated streams in New Jersey. Regression equations that incorporate basin characteristics were developed to estimate flood magnitude and frequency for streams throughout the State by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. Relations between flood-frequency estimates based on streamflow-gaging-station discharge and basin characteristics were determined by multiple regression analysis, and weighted by effective years of record. The State was divided into five hydrologically similar regions to refine the regression equations. The regression analysis indicated that flood discharge, as determined by the streamflow-gaging-station annual peak flows, is related to the drainage area, main channel slope, percentage of lake and wetland areas in the basin, population density, and the flood-frequency region, at the 95-percent confidence level. The standard errors of estimate for the various recurrence-interval floods ranged from 48.1 to 62.7 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2007 and basin characteristics determined using geographic information system techniques for 254 streamflow-gaging stations were used for the regression analysis. Drainage areas of the streamflow-gaging stations range from 0.18 to 779 mi2. Peak-flow data and basin characteristics for 191 streamflow-gaging stations located in New Jersey were used, along with peak-flow data for stations located in adjoining States, including 25 stations in Pennsylvania, 17 stations in New York, 16 stations in Delaware, and 5 stations in Maryland. Streamflow records for selected stations outside of New Jersey were included in the present study because hydrologic, physiographic, and geologic boundaries commonly extend beyond political boundaries. The StreamStats web application was developed cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., and was designed for national implementation. This web application has been recently implemented for use in New Jersey. This program used in conjunction with a geographic information system provides the computation of values for selected basin characteristics, estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies, and statistics for stream locations in New Jersey chosen by the user, whether the site is gaged or ungaged.

Statistical Attribution of Changes in Streamflow in the U.S. Midwest over the 20th and 21st Centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, L. J.; Villarini, G.

2016-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the Midwest over the past century. These changes have largely been attributed to the influence of upward trends in heavy precipitation and agricultural increases in row crop production. However, attempts to understand the specific causes of the changes in streamflow timing, magnitude, frequency, and seasonality have led to much debate in recent years, particularly regarding the influence of changing agricultural practices. Separating the different - climatic or land use/land cover - drivers of changing streamflow from a statistical perspective is not straightforward, and different methods have been implemented in the literature. Here, we develop statistical models in 476 U.S. Midwest river basins with long-term USGS discharge records to investigate the influence of the main drivers of changing streamflows: urbanization (using basin-averaged population per square kilometer), agricultural land cover (total corn and soybean harvested acreage), basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture (using precipitation from the month preceding each season as a proxy). We model the changes in the seasonal discharge quantiles from low to high flows as a function of these drivers (separately and combined), to evaluate which set of predictors is the best in each river basin. Results indicate that precipitation is indeed the most widespread driver in regions that are neither predominantly agricultural nor heavily urbanized. Elsewhere, we find strong regional patterns in terms of the best-fitting drivers, depending on climate, agricultural land cover and urbanization. Using these models, we then examine the sensitivity of discharge to different scenarios based on potential changes in each of the predictors. The projected changes have profound implications for water resources management across the Midwest.

The Comparison Of Predictability Of Annual Evapotranspiration And Streamflow Between Humid And Non-Humid Catchments Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Sun, F.; Liu, W.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

Rapid socioeconomic growth in China is stretching the gap between water supply and demand in recent decades. Expectation of changing climate and its potential threats on the water security of China is now calling for improved methodologies to reliably estimate hydrologic components like annual evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow (Q). Nonetheless, knowledge of these components in humid and non-humid regions is relative limited in current literature. Based on spatially distributed catchments across China, we characterize these components along with plausible explanations. Using Budyko framework, we first found that annual ET is predictable in non-humid regions but not so much in humid regions; annual Q is predictable in humid regions but less reliable in non-humid regions. The neglecting annual water storage change (ΔS) in water balance affects the estimation and variability of annual Q in non-humid catchments more than that in humid catchments, which directly brings about the complexity of predictability of annual Q in non-humid region. While to the ET predictability, the neglecting annual ΔS affects its estimation and variability more in humid catchments than that in non-humid catchments. Moreover, the considerable proportion of contribution from P, PET and their covariance to ET variability in humid catchments against absolutely dominant control of P in non-humid catchments can, to some extent, explain the differences in ET predictability. This provides one possible way to improve the prediction ET and Q, and we can well predict ET in non-humid catchments and Q in humid catchments so far based on commonly used hydrological models.

Streamflow, suspended-sediment, and soil-erosion data from Kaulana and Hakioawa watersheds, Kaho'olawe, Hawai'i,

USGS Publications Warehouse

Izuka, Scot K.; Abbott, Lyman L.

2010-01-01

Various events over the last two centuries have destroyed the vegetation and caused rapid soil erosion on large areas of the small, arid, windy tropical shield-volcano island of Kaho`olawe, Hawai`i. These activities were largely halted in the 1990s, and efforts have been made to restore the island's vegetation in order to stem erosion. In 2003, the Kaho`olawe Island Reserve Commission (KIRC) began restoration efforts using native vegetation. In 2006 to 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the KIRC, monitored streamflow, fluvial suspended-sediment transport, and erosion rates in the Hakioawa and Kaulana watersheds on northeastern Kaho`olawe to provide information needed to assess the effectiveness of restoration efforts. This report presents the results from this monitoring. Results.-Hakioawa and Kaulana gulches were dry about 90 percent of the time during the monitoring period; mean annual flow was 0.06 ft3/s at Hakioawa Gulch gage and 0.01 ft3/s at the Kaulana Gulch gage. For the period when the sediment gages on both gulches were operating concurrently (October 2007 to September 2009), sediment discharge was higher from Hakioawa Gulch than from Kaulana Gulch. The annual suspended-sediment loads for the concurrent period averaged 1,880 tons at the Hakioawa Gulch gage and 276 tons at the Kaulana Gulch gage. Of the 77 erosion-monitoring sites in the Hakioawa and Kaulana watersheds, 50 had overall rates of change indicating erosion for the monitoring period, ranging from -1 to -10 mm/yr and averaging -3 mm/yr. Seven sites had rates of change indicating overall deposition, ranging from 1 to 15 mm/yr and averaging 5 mm/yr. Twenty had rates of change below detection (less than ?1 mm/yr). The average rate of change for the 26 sites in areas that have undergone restoration by the KIRC was below the detection limit of the erosion-monitoring method. In comparison, the 51 sites in nonrestoration areas averaged -2 mm/y. Both of these averages, however, include sites that showed overall erosion as well as sites that showed overall deposition. The average rate of change was -1 mm/yr for both the 32 sites on rills and the 42 sites on interfluves; both categories include sites that showed deposition as well as sites that showed erosion. All three sites on hummocks showed overall erosion, with an average rate of -8 mm/yr. Both the Hakioawa and Kaulana watersheds showed an average rate of change of -1 mm/yr, and both included sites that showed erosion and sites that showed deposition. For sites with negative rates of change indicating erosion, the average rate of change during the monitoring period was -2 mm/yr in restoration areas and -3 mm/yr in nonrestoration areas. For sites with positive rates of change indicating deposition, the average rate of change was 5 mm/yr in restoration areas and 6 mm/yr in nonrestoration sites. The average rate of change for rills was 1 mm/yr in restoration areas and -2 mm/yr in nonrestoration sites. The average rate of change for interfluves was below detection in restoration areas and -1 mm/yr in nonrestoration areas. Potential Use and Limitation of Data.-Additional statistical comparisons of various subsets of erosion data can be used to assess the effectiveness of restoration efforts or how existing landforms, vegetation, climate, and other physical basin characteristics affect erosion and fluvial sediment transport in the watersheds. Further investigation to identify what factors cause the Kaulana watershed to have much lower runoff and sediment loads than the Hakioawa watershed may yield valuable information for developing and modifying restoration strategies. Continued monitoring of streamflow, sediment transport, and erosion is key to assessing the long-term effectiveness of restoration and can provide insight to the island's recovery since the eradication of feral goats and cessation of use as a military bombing range; the results of this study provide the

Changes in the relation between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sexstone, G. A.; Penn, C. A.; Clow, D. W.; Moeser, D.; Liston, G. E.

2017-12-01

Snow monitoring stations that measure snow water equivalent or snow depth provide fundamental observations used for predicting water availability and flood risk in mountainous regions. In the western United States, snow station observations provided by the Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network are relied upon for forecasting spring and summer streamflow volume. Streamflow forecast accuracy has declined for many regions over the last several decades. Changes in snow accumulation and melt related to climate, land use, and forest cover are not accounted for in current forecasts, and are likely sources of error. Therefore, understanding and updating relations between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources is crucial to improve accuracy of streamflow prediction. In this study, we investigated the representativeness of snow station observations when compared to simulated basin-wide snow water resources within the Rio Grande headwaters of Colorado. We used the combination of a process-based snow model (SnowModel), field-based measurements, and remote sensing observations to compare the spatiotemporal variability of simulated basin-wide snow accumulation and melt with that of SNOTEL station observations. Results indicated that observations are comparable to simulated basin-average winter precipitation but overestimate both the simulated basin-average snow water equivalent and snowmelt rate. Changes in the representation of snow station observations over time in the Rio Grande headwaters were also investigated and compared to observed streamflow and streamflow forecasting errors. Results from this study provide important insight in the context of non-stationarity for future water availability assessments and streamflow predictions.

Propagation of stage measurement uncertainties to streamflow time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horner, Ivan; Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin; Branger, Flora; McMillan, Hilary

2016-04-01

Streamflow uncertainties due to stage measurements errors are generally overlooked in the promising probabilistic approaches that have emerged in the last decade. We introduce an original error model for propagating stage uncertainties through a stage-discharge rating curve within a Bayesian probabilistic framework. The method takes into account both rating curve (parametric errors and structural errors) and stage uncertainty (systematic and non-systematic errors). Practical ways to estimate the different types of stage errors are also presented: (1) non-systematic errors due to instrument resolution and precision and non-stationary waves and (2) systematic errors due to gauge calibration against the staff gauge. The method is illustrated at a site where the rating-curve-derived streamflow can be compared with an accurate streamflow reference. The agreement between the two time series is overall satisfying. Moreover, the quantification of uncertainty is also satisfying since the streamflow reference is compatible with the streamflow uncertainty intervals derived from the rating curve and the stage uncertainties. Illustrations from other sites are also presented. Results are much contrasted depending on the site features. In some cases, streamflow uncertainty is mainly due to stage measurement errors. The results also show the importance of discriminating systematic and non-systematic stage errors, especially for long term flow averages. Perspectives for improving and validating the streamflow uncertainty estimates are eventually discussed.

Suspended-sediment concentrations, loads, total suspended solids, turbidity, and particle-size fractions for selected rivers in Minnesota, 2007 through 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Christopher A.; Savage, Brett E.; Johnson, Gregory D.

2014-01-01

Sediment-laden rivers and streams pose substantial environmental and economic challenges. Excessive sediment transport in rivers causes problems for flood control, soil conservation, irrigation, aquatic health, and navigation, and transports harmful contaminants like organic chemicals and eutrophication-causing nutrients. In Minnesota, more than 5,800 miles of streams are identified as impaired by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) due to elevated levels of suspended sediment. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the MPCA, established a sediment monitoring network in 2007 and began systematic sampling of suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC), total suspended solids (TSS), and turbidity in rivers across Minnesota to improve the understanding of fluvial sediment transport relations. Suspended-sediment samples collected from 14 sites from 2007 through 2011 indicated that the Zumbro River at Kellogg in the driftless region of southeast Minnesota had the highest mean SSC of 226 milligrams per liter (mg/L) followed by the Minnesota River at Mankato with a mean SSC of 193 mg/L. During the 2011 spring runoff, the single highest SSC of 1,250 mg/L was measured at the Zumbro River. The lowest mean SSC of 21 mg/L was measured at Rice Creek in the northern Minneapolis- St. Paul metropolitan area. Total suspended solids (TSS) have been used as a measure of fluvial sediment by the MPCA since the early 1970s; however, TSS concentrations have been determined to underrepresent the amount of suspended sediment. Because of this, the MPCA was interested in quantifying the differences between SSC and TSS in different parts of the State. Comparisons between concurrently sampled SSC and TSS indicated significant differences at every site, with SSC on average two times larger than TSS concentrations. The largest percent difference between SSC and TSS was measured at the South Branch Buffalo River at Sabin, and the smallest difference was observed at the Des Moines River at Jackson. Regression analysis indicated that 7 out of 14 sites had poor or no relation between SSC and streamflow. Only two sites, the Knife River and the Wild Rice River at Twin Valley, had strong correlations between SSC and streamflow, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.82 and 0.80, respectively. In contrast, turbidity had moderate to strong relations with SSC at 10 of 14 sites and was superior to streamflow for estimating SSC at all sites. These results indicate that turbidity may be beneficial as a surrogate for SSC in many of Minnesota’s rivers. Suspended-sediment loads and annual basin yields indicated that the Minnesota River had the largest average annual sediment load of 1.8 million tons per year and the largest mean annual sediment basin yield of 120 tons of sediment per year per square mile. Annual TSS loads were considerably lower than suspended-sediment loads. Overall, the largest suspended-sediment and TSS loads were transported during spring snowmelt runoff, although loads during the fall and summer seasons occasionally exceeded spring runoff at some sites. This study provided data from which to characterize suspended sediment across Minnesota’s diverse geographical settings. The data analysis improves understanding of sediment transport relations, provides information for improving sediment budgets, and documents baseline data to aid in understanding the effects of future land use/land cover on water quality. Additionally, the data provides insight from which to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of best management practices at the watershed scale.

Winter-spring 2001 United States streamflow probabilities based on anticipated neutral ENSO conditions and recent NPO status

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; McCabe, G.J.; Redmond, K.T.

2000-01-01

An analysis of historical floods and seasonal streamflows during years with neutral El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific and “negative” states of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific—like those expected next year—indicates that (1) chances of having maximum-daily flows next year that are near the longterm averages in many rivers are enhanced, especially in the western states, (2) chances of having near-average seasonal-average flows also may be enhanced across the country, and (3) locally, chances of large floods and winter-season flows may be enhanced in the extreme Northwest, chances of large winter flows may be diminished in rivers in and around Wisconsin, and chances of large spring flows may be diminished in the interior southwest and southeastern coastal plain. The background, methods, and forecast results that lead to these statements are detailed below, followed by a summary of the successes and failures of last year’s streamflow forecast by Dettinger et al. (1999).

The value of model averaging and dynamical climate model predictions for improving statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Prafulla; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.

2013-10-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts are valuable for planning and allocation of water resources. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology employs a statistical method to forecast seasonal streamflows. The method uses predictors that are related to catchment wetness at the start of a forecast period and to climate during the forecast period. For the latter, a predictor is selected among a number of lagged climate indices as candidates to give the "best" model in terms of model performance in cross validation. This study investigates two strategies for further improvement in seasonal streamflow forecasts. The first is to combine, through Bayesian model averaging, multiple candidate models with different lagged climate indices as predictors, to take advantage of different predictive strengths of the multiple models. The second strategy is to introduce additional candidate models, using rainfall and sea surface temperature predictions from a global climate model as predictors. This is to take advantage of the direct simulations of various dynamic processes. The results show that combining forecasts from multiple statistical models generally yields more skillful forecasts than using only the best model and appears to moderate the worst forecast errors. The use of rainfall predictions from the dynamical climate model marginally improves the streamflow forecasts when viewed over all the study catchments and seasons, but the use of sea surface temperature predictions provide little additional benefit.

The efficacy of calibrating hydrologic model using remotely sensed evapotranspiration and soil moisture for streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunnath-Poovakka, A.; Ryu, D.; Renzullo, L. J.; George, B.

2016-04-01

Calibration of spatially distributed hydrologic models is frequently limited by the availability of ground observations. Remotely sensed (RS) hydrologic information provides an alternative source of observations to inform models and extend modelling capability beyond the limits of ground observations. This study examines the capability of RS evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture (SM) in calibrating a hydrologic model and its efficacy to improve streamflow predictions. SM retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) and daily ET estimates from the CSIRO MODIS ReScaled potential ET (CMRSET) are used to calibrate a simplified Australian Water Resource Assessment - Landscape model (AWRA-L) for a selection of parameters. The Shuffled Complex Evolution Uncertainty Algorithm (SCE-UA) is employed for parameter estimation at eleven catchments in eastern Australia. A subset of parameters for calibration is selected based on the variance-based Sobol' sensitivity analysis. The efficacy of 15 objective functions for calibration is assessed based on streamflow predictions relative to control cases, and relative merits of each are discussed. Synthetic experiments were conducted to examine the effect of bias in RS ET observations on calibration. The objective function containing the root mean square deviation (RMSD) of ET result in best streamflow predictions and the efficacy is superior for catchments with medium to high average runoff. Synthetic experiments revealed that accurate ET product can improve the streamflow predictions in catchments with low average runoff.

Cost effectiveness of the U.S. Geological Survey's stream-gaging program in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mades, D.M.; Oberg, K.A.

1984-01-01

Data uses and funding sources were identified for 138 continuous-record discharge-gaging stations currently (1983) operated as part of the stream-gaging program in Illinois. Streamflow data from five of those stations are used only for regional hydrology studies. Most streamflow data are used for defining regional hydrology, defining rainfall-runoff relations, flood forecasting, regulating navigation systems, and water-quality sampling. Based on the evaluations of data use and of alternative methods for determining streamflow in place of stream gaging, no stations in the 1983 stream-gaging program should be deactivated. The current budget (in 1983 dollars) for operating the 138-station program is $768,000 per year. The average standard error of instantaneous discharge for the current practice for visiting the gaging stations is 36.5 percent. Missing stage record accounts for one-third of the 36.5 percent average standard error. (USGS)

Hydrology of area 54, Northern Great Plains, and Rocky Mountain coal provinces, Colorado and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard; Daddow, P.D.; Craig, G.S.; ,

1983-01-01

A nationwide need for information characterizing hydrologic conditions in mined and potential mine areas has become paramount with the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977. This report, one in a series covering the coal provinces nationwide, presents information thematically by describing single hydrologic topics through the use of brief texts and accompanying maps, graphs, or other illustrations. The summation of the topical discussions provides a description of the hydrology of the area. Area 54, in north-central Colorado and south-central Wyoming, is 1 of 20 hydrologic reporting areas of the Northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain coal provinces. Part of the Southern Rocky Mountains and Wyoming Basin physiographic provinces, the 8,380-square-mile area is one of contrasting geology, topography, and climate. This results in contrasting hydrologic characteristics. The major streams, the North Platte, Laramie, and Medicine Bow Rivers, and their principal tributaries, all head in granitic mountains and flow into and through sedimentary basins between the mountain ranges. Relief averages 2,000 to 3,000 feet. Precipitation in the mountains may exceed 40 inches annually, much of it during the winter, which produces deep snowpacks. Snowmelt in spring and summer provides most streamflow. Precipitation in the basins averages 10 to 16 inches annually, insufficient for sustained streamflow; thus, streams originating in the basins are ephemeral. Streamflow quality is best in the mountains where dissolved-solids concentrations generally are least. These concentrations increase as streams flow through sedimentary basins. The increases are mainly natural, but some may be due to irrigation in and adjacent to the flood plains. In the North Platte River, dissolved-solids concentrations are usually less than 300 milligrams per liter; in the Laramie and the Medicine Bow Rivers, the concentrations may average 500 to 850 milligrams per liter. However, water-quality stations on the Laramie and the Medicine Bow Rivers are farther removed from the mountain sources than the stations in the North Platte drainage. Because of the semiarid climate of the basins, soils are not adequately leached. Consequently, flow in ephemeral streams usually has a larger concentration of dissolved solids than that in perennial streams, averaging 1,000 to 1,600 milligrams per liter. Aquifers containing usable ground water are combined into three groups: (1) consolidated and unconsolidated non-coal-bearing Quaternary and Upper Tertiary deposits, (2) Mesozoic and Paleozoic sedimentary rocks, and (3) Lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous sedimentary rocks containing coal. These aquifers are used for municipal, domestic, irrigation, and stock supplies. Well yields range from about 5 to 1,000 gallons per minute, and depend on type of aquifer, saturated thickness, and degree of fracturing. The best quality ground water usually comes from the non-coal-bearing Quaternary and Upper Tertiary rocks or the Mesozoic and Paleozoic rocks; often it is dominated by calcium and bicarbonate ions. The coal-bearing formations have a large variability in water chemistry; dominant ions may be bicarbonate or sulfate and sodium, calcium, or magnesium. Dissolved-solids concentrations are generally larger than in the former two groups. The U.S. Geological Survey operates a network of hydrologic stations to observe the streamflow and groundwater conditions. This network currently includes 31 surface-water stations and 35 observation wells; information is available for many other sites observed in the past. Data available include rate of flow, water levels, and water quality; much of the data are available in published reports or from computer storage through the National Water Data Exchange (NAWDEX) or the National Water Data Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE). Five formations of Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary age contain coal. W

Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

Treesearch

Liang Wei; Timothy E. Link; Andrew T. Hudak; John D. Marshall; Kathleen L. Kavanagh; John T. Abatzoglou; Hang Zhou; Robert E. Pangle; Gerald N. Flerchinger

2016-01-01

Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long-term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal...