Map showing length of freeze-free season in the Salina quadrangle, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Covington, Harry R.

1972-01-01

In general, long freeze-free periods occur at low elevations, and short freeze-free periods occur at high elevations. But some valley floors have shorter freeze-free seasons than the glancing foothills because air cooled at high elevations flows downward and is trapped in the valleys. This temperature pattern occurs in the western part of the quadrangle in Rabbit Valley, Grass Valley, and the Sevier River Valley near Salina.Because year-round weather stations are sparse in Utah, a special technique for estimating length of freeze-free season was developed by Dr. Gaylen L. Ashcroft, Assistant Professor of Climatology, Utah State University, and E. Arlo Richardson, State Climatologist, U.S. Weather Bureau, based on average annual temperature, average annual temperature range, average daily temperature range, and average july maximum temperature. This technique was used in preparation of the map showing “Length of 32°F freeze-free season for Utah,” figure 23 in Hydrologic Atlas of Utah (Utah State University and Utah Division of Water Resources, 1968), from which the data for this map were taken.

Estimation of global radiation for Sri Lanka

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samuel, T.D.M.A.

1991-01-01

There are several formulae that relate global radiation to other climatological parameters such as sunshine hours, relative humidity, maximum temperature, and average temperature. In this paper a generally accepted modified form of the formula first introduced by Angstrom is used. It relates global radiation to hours of sunshine that have been measured for several years in many of the meteorological stations in Sri Lanka. The annual average of the ratio of the hours of sunshine to the length of the day, i.e., annual average of (S/Z), is found to vary considerably and to lie in the range 0.42-0.66. Fre're etmore » al., have found, using data from many parts of the world, a general graphical representation for the variation of a and b with annual average (S/Z) lying in the range 0.28 to 0.75. This variation of a and b can be expressed as quadratic functions are modified and used to determine a and b values for stations in Sri Lanka.« less

Deciphering the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: More Active Versus Less Active During the Present Epoch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1998-01-01

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (i.e., those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane damage potential scale) were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960's than thereafter (hence a possible two-state division: more active versus less active), and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature may be statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of 4- and 10-yr moving averages, one finds that there exists strong linear associations between the annual frequency of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and temperature (specially, when temperature slightly leads). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now decidedly upward, beginning about the mid 1980's, it is inferred that the long-term consequential trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, having begun near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred. However, because of the anomalous El Nino activity of the early to mid 1990's, the switch from the less active to the more active state essentially went unnoticed (a marked increase in the number of intense hurricanes was not observed until the 1995 and 1996 hurricane seasons, following the end of the anomalous El Nino activity). Presuming that a return to the more active state has, indeed, occurred, one expects the number of seasonal intense hurricanes during the present epoch (continuing through about 2012) to usually be higher than average (i.e., greater than or equal to 2), except during El Nino-related seasons when the number usually will be less than average.

The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

2017-04-01

Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

Regional hydrologic response of loblolly pine to air temperature and precipitation changes

Treesearch

Steven G. McNulty; James M. Vose; Wayne T. Swank

1997-01-01

Large deviations in average annual air temperatures and total annual precipitation were observed across the Southern United States during the last 50 years, and these fluctuations could become even larger during the next century. The authors used PnET-IIS, a monthly time-step forest process model that uses soil, vegetation, and climate inputs to assess the influence of...

Temperature environment for 9975 packages stored in KAC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W. L.

Plutonium materials are stored in the K Area Complex (KAC) in shipping packages, typically the 9975 shipping package. In order to estimate realistic degradation rates for components within the shipping package (i.e. the fiberboard overpack and O-ring seals), it is necessary to understand actual facility temperatures, which can vary daily and seasonally. Relevant facility temperature data available from several periods throughout its operating history have been reviewed. The annual average temperature within the Crane Maintenance Area has ranged from approximately 70 to 74 °F, although there is significant seasonal variation and lesser variation among different locations within the facility. Themore » long-term average degradation rate for 9975 package components is very close to that expected if the component were to remain continually at the annual average temperature. This result remains valid for a wide range of activation energies (which describes the variation in degradation rate as the temperature changes), if the activation energy remains constant over the seasonal range of component temperatures. It is recommended that component degradation analyses and service life estimates incorporate these results. Specifically, it is proposed that future analyses assume an average facility ambient air temperature of 94 °F. This value is bounding for all packages, and includes margin for several factors such as increased temperatures within the storage arrays, the addition of more packages in the future, and future operational changes.« less

Ecological setting of the Wind River old-growth forest.

Treesearch

David C. Shaw; Jerry F. Franklin; Ken Bible; Jeffrey Klopatek; Elizabeth Freeman; Sarah Greene; Geoffrey G. Parker

2004-01-01

The Wind River old-growth forest, in the southern Cascade Range of Washington State, is a cool (average annual temperature, 8.7°C), moist (average annual precipitation, 2223 mm), 500-year-old Douglas-fir-western hemlock forest of moderate to low productivity at 371-m elevation on a less than 10% slope. There is a seasonal snowpack (November-March), and rain-on-snow and...

Recent accelerated warming of the continental shelf off New Jersey: Observations from the CMV Oleander expendable bathythermograph line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsyth, Jacob Samuel Tse; Andres, Magdalena; Gawarkiewicz, Glen G.

2015-03-01

Expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) have been launched along a repeat track from New Jersey to Bermuda from the CMV Oleander through the NOAA/NEFSC Ship of Opportunity Program about 14 times per year since 1977. The XBT temperatures on the Middle Atlantic Bight shelf are binned with 10 km horizontal and 5 m vertical resolution to produce monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged cross-shelf temperature sections. The depth-averaged shelf temperature, Ts, calculated from annually averaged sections that are spatially averaged across the shelf, increases at 0.026 ± 0.001°C yr-1 from 1977 to 2013, with the recent trend substantially larger than the overall 37 year trend (0.11 ± 0.02°C yr-1 since 2002). The Oleander temperature sections suggest that the recent acceleration in warming on the shelf is not confined to the surface, but occurs throughout the water column with some contribution from interactions between the shelf and the adjacent Slope Sea reflected in cross-shelf motions of the shelfbreak front. The local warming on the shelf cannot explain the region's amplified rate of sea level rise relative to the global mean. Additionally, Ts exhibits significant interannual variability with the warmest anomalies increasing in intensity over the 37 year record even as the cold anomalies remain relatively uniform throughout the record. Ts anomalies are not correlated with annually averaged coastal sea level anomalies at zero lag. However, positive correlation is found between 2 year lagged Ts anomalies and coastal sea level anomalies, suggesting that the region's sea level anomalies may serve as a predictor of shelf temperature.

Hydrologic and climatic changes in three small watersheds after timber harvest.

Treesearch

W.B. Fowler; J.D. Helvey; E.N. Felix

1987-01-01

No significant increases in annual water yield were shown for three small watersheds in northeastern Oregon after shelterwood cutting (30-percent canopy removal, 50-percent basal area removal) and clearcutting. Average maximum air temperature increased after harvest and average minimum air temperature decreased by up to 2.6 °C. Both maximum and minimum water...

Cosmic rays and other rpace phenomena influenced on the Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lev, Dorman

2016-07-01

We consider effects of cosmic rays (CR) and some other space phenomena on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the Earth's climate is very unstable: decreasing of planetary average annual temperature leads to an increase of planetary snow surface, and decreasing of the total annual solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more. And inverse: increasing planetary temperature leads to an decrease of snow surface, and increasing of the total solar energy input into the system increases the planetary temperature even more. From this follows that even energetically small factors acted long time in one direction may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are CR (mostly through its influence on planetary cloudiness) and space dust (SD) through their influence on the flux of solar irradiation and on formation of clouds (these actions are in one direction). It is important that CR and SD influenced on global climate change in the same direction. Increasing of CR planetary intensity leads to increasing of formation clouds (especially low clouds on altitudes smaller than 3 km), increasing annual average of raining and decreasing of annual average planetary temperature. Increasing of SD decreases of solar irradiation and increases cloudiness what leads also to decreasing of annual average planetary temperature. Moreover, interactions of CR particles with dust granules decreases their dimensions what increased effectiveness of their actions on clouds. We consider data great variations of planetary temperature much before the beginning of the Earth's technological civilization (mostly caused by moving of the solar system around our Galaxy centre and collisions with molecular-dust clouds). We consider in details not only situation during the last hundred years, but also situation in the last one thousand years (and especially situation during Maunder minimum of solar activity), during many thousand and many millions years. It is shown that very big changes in climate were caused also by some rarely phenomena as impacts of asteroids and nearby supernova explosions with great influence on biosphere. We discuss also the problem on forecasting of global climate change what is especially important for saving present civilization from great climate catastrophes.

Quantification of soil respiration in forest ecosystems across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xinzhang; Peng, Changhui; Zhao, Zhengyong; Zhang, Zhiting; Guo, Baohua; Wang, Weifeng; Jiang, Hong; Zhu, Qiuan

2014-09-01

We collected 139 estimates of the annual forest soil CO2 flux and 173 estimates of the Q10 value (the temperature sensitivity) assembled from 90 published studies across Chinese forest ecosystems. We analyzed the annual soil respiration (Rs) rates and the temperature sensitivities of seven forest ecosystems, including evergreen broadleaf forests (EBF), deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), broadleaf and needleleaf mixed forests (BNMF), evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF), deciduous needleleaf forests (DNF), bamboo forests (BF) and shrubs (SF). The results showed that the mean annual Rs rate was 33.65 t CO2 ha-1 year-1 across Chinese forest ecosystems. Rs rates were significantly different (P < 0.001) among the seven forest types, and were significantly and positively influenced by mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and actual evapotranspiration (AET); but negatively affected by latitude and elevation. The mean Q10 value of 1.28 was lower than the world average (1.4-2.0). The Q10 values derived from the soil temperature at a depth of 5 cm varied among forest ecosystems by an average of 2.46 and significantly decreased with the MAT but increased with elevation and latitude. Moreover, our results suggested that an artificial neural network (ANN) model can effectively predict Rs across Chinese forest ecosystems. This study contributes to better understanding of Rs across Chinese forest ecosystems and their possible responses to global warming.

The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range.

PubMed

Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

2018-05-01

Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic insight and helps estimate how much and how fast sagebrush cover may change within its range. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Phenological research of climate changes in the north part of Lithuania by the phenological garden of Šiauliai University.

PubMed

Klimienė, Asta; Vainorienė, Rimanta; Klimas, Ramutis

2017-02-01

Šiauliai University Botanical Garden is a member of the International Phenological Garden network since 2005. It is the only one botanical garden in the East Europe that participated in the programme. In 2015, 18 species were observed. For research, data of 14 plants was used. The aim of this study is to estimate the responsiveness of the species of plants of the phenological garden to annual and monthly precipitation and temperature of the air. The main variables in this investigation were growing season length and the beginning of the growing season. In the period 2006-2015, the lowest annual air temperature was in 2010 (6.0 °C), and the highest was in 2015 (8.9 °C). The lowest precipitation was in 2015 (37.3 mm), and the highest was in 2012 (63.5 mm). The leanest regression among growing length, average annual precipitation, and air temperature showed that statistically significant correlation between growing length and average annual air temperature was found for nine plants, between growing length and precipitation was found for three plants, and between growing length and both factors was found for one plant, Salix smithiana, only. Due to the short evaluating period (2007-2015), consistent regression of the length of the growing season could not be found. The growing length of Betula pubescens sequentially increased. The average growing season of 14 plants starts on April 27 (±3), but for Corylus avellana, it is on April 26 (±3). Longevity of the growing season was the most related with precipitation for C. avellana in summer, autumn, and winter and with air temperature, Ribes alpinum and Salix acutifolia in summer and in autumn.

Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skansi, María de los Milagros; Brunet, Manola; Sigró, Javier; Aguilar, Enric; Arevalo Groening, Juan Andrés; Bentancur, Oscar J.; Castellón Geier, Yaruska Rosa; Correa Amaya, Ruth Leonor; Jácome, Homero; Malheiros Ramos, Andrea; Oria Rojas, Clara; Pasten, Alejandro Max; Sallons Mitro, Sukarni; Villaroel Jiménez, Claudia; Martínez, Rodney; Alexander, Lisa V.; Jones, P. D.

2013-01-01

Here we show and discuss the results of an assessment of changes in both area-averaged and station-based climate extreme indices over South America (SA) for the 1950-2010 and 1969-2009 periods using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series. A weeklong regional workshop in Guayaquil (Ecuador) provided the opportunity to extend the current picture of changes in climate extreme indices over SA. Our results provide evidence of warming and wetting across the whole SA since the mid-20th century onwards. Nighttime (minimum) temperature indices show the largest rates of warming (e.g. for tropical nights, cold and warm nights), while daytime (maximum) temperature indices also point to warming (e.g. for cold days, summer days, the annual lowest daytime temperature), but at lower rates than for minimums. Both tails of night-time temperatures have warmed by a similar magnitude, with cold days (the annual lowest nighttime and daytime temperatures) seeing reductions (increases). Trends are strong and moderate (moderate to weak) for regional-averaged (local) indices, most of them pointing to a less cold SA during the day and warmer night-time temperatures. Regionally-averaged precipitation indices show clear wetting and a signature of intensified heavy rain events over the eastern part of the continent. The annual amounts of rainfall are rising strongly over south-east SA (26.41 mm/decade) and Amazonia (16.09 mm/decade), but north-east Brazil and the western part of SA have experienced non-significant decreases. Very wet and extremely days, the annual maximum 5-day and 1-day precipitation show the largest upward trends, indicating an intensified rainfall signal for SA, particularly over Amazonia and south-east SA. Local trends for precipitation extreme indices are in general less coherent spatially, but with more general spatially coherent upward trends in extremely wet days over all SA.

Climatic factors associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a spatial analysis from Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ching-Piao; Tzu-Chi Lee, Charles

2013-11-01

Few studies have assessed the spatial association of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence in the world. The aim of this study was to identify the association of climatic factors and ALS incidence in Taiwan. A total of 1,434 subjects with the primary diagnosis of ALS between years 1997 and 2008 were identified in the national health insurance research database. The diagnosis was also verified by the national health insurance programme, which had issued and providing them with "serious disabling disease (SDD) certificates". Local indicators of spatial association were employed to investigate spatial clustering of age-standardised incidence ratios in the townships of the study area. Spatial regression was utilised to reveal any association of annual average climatic factors and ALS incidence for the 12-year study period. The climatic factors included the annual average time of sunlight exposure, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, atmospheric pressure, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed with spatial autocorrelation controlled. Significant correlations were only found for exposure to sunlight and rainfall and it was similar in both genders. The annual average of the former was found to be negatively correlated with ALS, while the latter was positively correlated with ALS incidence. While accepting that ALS is most probably multifactorial, it was concluded that sunlight deprivation and/or rainfall are associated to some degree with ALS incidence in Taiwan.

Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnel, Michael S.; Ignizio, Drew A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed climate indices, referred to as bioclimatic predictors, which highlight climate conditions best related to species physiology. A set of 20 bioclimatic predictors were developed as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continuous raster surfaces for each year between 1895 and 2009. The Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and down-scaled PRISM data, which included both averaged multi-year and averaged monthly climate summaries, was used to develop these multi-scale bioclimatic predictors. Bioclimatic predictors capture information about annual conditions (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual range in temperature and precipitation), as well as seasonal mean climate conditions and intra-year seasonality (temperature of the coldest and warmest months, precipitation of the wettest and driest quarters). Examining climate over time is useful when quantifying the effects of climate changes on species' distributions for past, current, and forecasted scenarios. These data, which have not been readily available to scientists, can provide biologists and ecologists with relevant and multi-scaled climate data to augment research on the responses of species to changing climate conditions. The relationships established between species demographics and distributions with bioclimatic predictors can inform land managers of climatic effects on species during decisionmaking processes.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Intra-annual height increment of Pinus sylvestris at high latitudes in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Hannu; Jalkanen, Risto

2007-09-01

Intra-annual height growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in four stands was followed for up to four growing seasons (2000-2003) in the northern boreal zone in Lapland. Elongation of the leader shoot correlated with temperature sum expressed as degree-days. Total length of the leader shoot correlated with growth rate but not with duration of the height-growth period. The longer the annual shoot at the end of the season, the greater the height increment per degree- and growing day. Height-growth cessation was defined as the date when 95% of the total shoot length was achieved. In all stands and all years, height growth ceased when, on average, 41% of the relative temperature sum of the site was achieved (range of variation 38-43%). The relative temperature sum was calculated by dividing the actual temperature sum by the long-term mean for the site. Our results suggest that annual height growth is finished when a location-specific temperature sum threshold is attained.

Trends in summer bottom-water temperatures on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf from 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Turner, R Eugene; Rabalais, Nancy N; Justić, Dubravko

2017-01-01

We quantified trends in the 1985 to 2015 summer bottom-water temperature on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) continental shelf for data collected at 88 stations with depths ranging from 3 to 63 m. The analysis was supplemented with monthly data collected from 1963 to 1965 in the same area. The seasonal summer peak in average bottom-water temperature varied concurrently with air temperature, but with a 2- to 5-month lag. The summer bottom-water temperature declined gradually with depth from 30 oC at stations closest to the shore, to 20 oC at the offshore edge of the study area, and increased an average 0.051 oC y-1 between1963 and 2015. The bottom-water warming in summer for all stations was 1.9 times faster compared to the rise in local summer air temperatures, and 6.4 times faster than the concurrent increase in annual global ocean sea surface temperatures. The annual rise in average summer bottom-water temperatures on the subtropical nGOM continental shelf is comparable to the few published temperature trend estimates from colder environments. These recent changes in the heat storage on the nGOM continental shelf will affect oxygen and carbon cycling, spatial distribution of fish and shrimp, and overall species diversity.

Unlocking the climate riddle in forested ecosystems

Treesearch

Greg C. Liknes; Christopher W. Woodall; Brian F. Walters; Sara A. Goeking

2012-01-01

Climate information is often used as a predictor in ecological studies, where temporal averages are typically based on climate normals (30-year means) or seasonal averages. While ensemble projections of future climate forecast a higher global average annual temperature, they also predict increased climate variability. It remains to be seen whether forest ecosystems...

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

2017-01-01

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

Thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in relation to ground surface temperature in the Source Areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, SW China.

PubMed

Luo, Dongliang; Jin, Huijun; Wu, Qingbai; Bense, Victor F; He, Ruixia; Ma, Qiang; Gao, Shuhui; Jin, Xiaoying; Lü, Lanzhi

2018-03-15

Ecology, hydrology, and natural resources in the source areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers (SAYYR) are closely linked to interactions between climate and permafrost. However, a comprehensive study of the interactions is currently hampered by sparsely- and unevenly-distributed monitoring sites and limited field investigations. In this study, the thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in the SAYYR was systematically analyzed based on extensive data collected during 2010-2016 of air temperature (T a ), ground surface temperature (GST) and ground temperature across a range of areas with contrasting land-surface characteristics. Mean annual T a (MAAT) and mean annual GST (MAGST) were regionally averaged at -3.19±0.71°C and -0.40±1.26°C. There is a close relationship between GST and T a (R 2 =0.8477) as obtained by a linear regression analysis with all available daily averages. The mean annual temperature at the bottom of the active layer (T TOP ) was regionally averaged at -0.72±1.01°C and mostly in the range of -1.0°C and 0°C except at Chalaping (~-2.0°C). Surface offset (MAGST-MAAT) was regionally averaged at 2.54±0.71°C. Thermal offset (T TOP -MAGST) was regionally averaged at -0.17±0.84°C, which was generally within -0.5°C and 0.5°C. Relatively consistent thermal conductivity between the thawed and frozen states of the soils may be responsible for the small thermal offset. Active layer thickness was generally smaller at Chalaping than that on other parts of the QTP, presumably due to smaller climatic continentality index and the thermal dampening of surface temperature variability under the presence of dense vegetation and thick peaty substrates. We conclude that the accurate mapping of permafrost on the rugged elevational QTP could be potentially obtained by correlating the parameters of GST, thermal offset, and temperature gradient in the shallow permafrost. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cuticular waxes in alpine meadow plants: climate effect inferred from latitude gradient in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Guo, Yanjun; Guo, Na; He, Yuji; Gao, Jianhua

2015-09-01

Alpine meadow ecosystems are susceptible to climate changes. Still, climate impact on cuticular wax in alpine meadow plants is poorly understood. Assessing the variations of cuticular wax in alpine meadow plants across different latitudes might be useful for predicting how they may respond to climate change. We studied nine alpine meadows in a climate gradient in the east side of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with mean annual temperature ranging from -7.7 to 3.2°C. In total, 42 plant species were analyzed for cuticular wax, averaged 16 plant species in each meadow. Only four plant species could be observed in all sampling meadows, including Kobresia humilis,Potentilla nivea,Anaphalis lacteal, and Leontopodium nanum. The amounts of wax compositions and total cuticular wax in the four plant species varied among sampling meadows, but no significant correlation could be observed between them and temperature, precipitation, and aridity index based on plant species level. To analyze the variations of cuticular wax on community level, we averaged the amounts of n-alkanes, aliphatic acids, primary alcohols, and total cuticular wax across all investigated plant species in each sampling site. The mean annual temperature, mean temperature in July, and aridity index were significantly correlated with the averaged amounts of wax compositions and total cuticular wax. The average chain length of n-alkanes in both plant and soil linearly increased with increased temperature, whereas reduced with increased aridity index. No significant correlation could be observed between mean annual precipitation and mean precipitation from June to August and the cuticular wax amounts and average chain length. Our results suggest that the survival of some alpine plants in specific environments might be depended on their abilities in adjusting wax deposition on plant leaves, and the alpine meadow plants as a whole respond to climate change, benefiting the stability of alpine meadow ecosystem.

Characterizing and Quantifying Local and Regional Particulate Matter Emissions from Department of Defense Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

region (Fig. 4.1). A summary of the annual and seasonal average temperature, precipitation , and wind conditions for El Paso is presented in Table 4.1... Precipitation (cm) 2 Average Wind Speed 2 (km/hr) Prevailing Wind Direction 2 (degrees) Annual 17.3 22.4 14.2 360 Winter (Dec...Chow, 2001; Chow et al., 2003). The Teflon-membrane filters were analyzed for mass by gravimetry using a Cahn 31 Electro-microbalance and for 40

An overview of mainland China temperature change research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Guoyu; Ding, Yihui; Tang, Guoli

2017-02-01

There has been significant effort devoted to investigating long-term trends in land surface air temperature over mainland China by Chinese scientists over the past 50 years, and much progress has been made in understanding dynamics of the changes. This review highlights research conducted by early Chinese climatologists, and particularly Professor Shaowu Wang from Peking University, with special focus on systematic work that has been conducted since the mid to late 1970s. We also discuss major issues that remain unresolved in past and current studies. The most recent analyses indicate that the country-average annual mean surface air temperature rose by 1.12°C over the past 115 years (1901-2015), with a rate of increase of about 0.10°C decade-1. Temperatures have risen more rapidly since the 1950s, with the rate of increase of more than 0.25°C decade-1. However, the recent increase in temperatures is in large part due to contamination by systematically biased data. These data are influenced by unprecedented urbanization in China, with a contribution of urbanization to the overall increase of annual mean temperatures in mainland China of about one third over the past half a century. If the bias is corrected, the rate of increase for the country-average annual mean surface air temperature is 0.17°C decade-1 over the last 50-60 years, which is approximately the same as global and Northern Hemispheric averages in recent decades. Future efforts should be focused towards the recovery and digitization of early-year observational records, the homogenization of observational data, the evaluation and adjustment of urbanization bias in temperature data series from urban stations, the analysis of extreme temperatures over longer periods including the first half of the 20th century, and the investigation of the observed surface air temperature change mechanisms in mainland China.

Climate change summary

Treesearch

Steve McNulty; Jennifer Moore Myers; Peter Caldwell; Ge Sun

2013-01-01

Key FindingsSince 1960, all but two southern capital cities (Montgomery, AL, and Oklahoma City, OK) have experienced a statistically significant increase in average annual temperature (approximately 0.016° C), but none has experienced significant trends in precipitation.The South is forecasted to experience warmer temperatures...

Calculating net primary productivity of forest ecosystem with G4M model: case study on South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, S.; Forsell, N.; Kindermann, G.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of forest is highlighted as a stepping stone for mitigating climate change. Especially rapidly urbanizing countries which have high carbon dioxide emission have large interest in calculating forest NPP under climate change. Also maximizing carbon sequestration in forest sector has became a global goal to minimize the impacts of climate change. Therefore, the objective of this research is estimating carbon stock change under the different climate change scenarios by using G4M (Global Forestry Model) model in South Korea. We analyzed four climate change scenarios in different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). In this study we used higher resolution data (1kmx1km) to produce precise estimation on NPP from regionalized four climate change scenarios in G4M model. Finally, we set up other environmental variables for G4M such as water holding capacity, soil type and elevation. As a result of this study, temperature showed significant trend during 2011 to 2100. Average annual temperature increased more than 5℃ in RCP 8.5 scenario while 1℃ increased in RCP 2.6 scenario. Each standard deviation of the annual average temperature showed similar trend. Average annual precipitation showed similarity within four scenarios. However the standard deviation of average annual precipitation is higher in RCP8.5 scenario which indicates the ranges of precipitation is wider in RCP8.5 scenario. These results present that climate indicators such as temperature and precipitation have uncertainties in climate change scenarios. NPP has changed from 5-13tC/ha/year in RCP2.6 scenario to 9-21 tC/ha/year in RCP8.5 scenario in 2100. In addition the spatial distribution of NPP presented different trend among the scenarios. In conclusion we calculated differences in temperature and precipitation and NPP change in different climate change scenarios. This study can be applied for maximizing carbon seqestration of vegetation.

Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004-2012.

PubMed

Hahn, Micah B; Monaghan, Andrew J; Hayden, Mary H; Eisen, Rebecca J; Delorey, Mark J; Lindsey, Nicole P; Nasci, Roger S; Fischer, Marc

2015-05-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is a leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Annual seasonal outbreaks vary in size and location. Predicting where and when higher than normal WNV transmission will occur can help direct limited public health resources. We developed models for the contiguous United States to identify meteorological anomalies associated with above average incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease from 2004 to 2012. We used county-level WNV data reported to ArboNET and meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. As a result of geographic differences in WNV transmission, we divided the United States into East and West, and 10 climate regions. Above average annual temperature was associated with increased likelihood of higher than normal WNV disease incidence, nationally and in most regions. Lower than average annual total precipitation was associated with higher disease incidence in the eastern United States, but the opposite was true in most western regions. Although multiple factors influence WNV transmission, these findings show that anomalies in temperature and precipitation are associated with above average WNV disease incidence. Readily accessible meteorological data may be used to develop predictive models to forecast geographic areas with elevated WNV disease risk before the coming season. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

[Geographical distribution of left ventricular Tei index based on principal component analysis].

PubMed

Xu, Jinhui; Ge, Miao; He, Jinwei; Xue, Ranyin; Yang, Shaofang; Jiang, Jilin

2014-11-01

To provide a scientific standard of left ventricular Tei index for healthy people from various region of China, and to lay a reliable foundation for the evaluation of left ventricular diastolic and systolic function. The correlation and principal component analysis were used to explore the left ventricular Tei index, which based on the data of 3 562 samples from 50 regions of China by means of literature retrieval. Th e nine geographical factors were longitude(X₁), latitude(X₂), altitude(X₃), annual sunshine hours (X₄), the annual average temperature (X₅), annual average relative humidity (X₆), annual precipitation (X₇), annual temperature range (X₈) and annual average wind speed (X₉). ArcGIS soft ware was applied to calculate the spatial distribution regularities of left ventricular Tei index. There is a significant correlation between the healthy people's left ventricular Tei index and geographical factors, and the correlation coefficients were -0.107 (r₁), -0.301 (r₂), -0.029 (r₃), -0.277 (r₄), -0.256(r₅), -0.289(r₆), -0.320(r₇), -0.310 (r₈) and -0.117 (r₉), respectively. A linear equation between the Tei index and the geographical factor was obtained by regression analysis based on the three extracting principal components. The geographical distribution tendency chart for healthy people's left Tei index was fitted out by the ArcGIS spatial interpolation analysis. The geographical distribution for left ventricular Tei index in China follows certain pattern. The reference value in North is higher than that in South, while the value in East is higher than that in West.

Precipitation and temperature changes in the major Chinese river basins during 1957-2013 and links to sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Qing; Prange, Matthias; Merkel, Ute

2016-05-01

The variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the three major Chinese river basins (Yellow River, Yangtze River and Pearl River) in the period of 1957-2013 were analyzed on an annual and seasonal basis, as well as their links to sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean on both interannual and decadal time scales. Annual mean temperature of the three river basins increased significantly overall since 1957, with an average warming rate of about 0.19 °C/10a, but the warming was characterized by a staircase form with steps around 1987 and 1998. The significant increase of annual mean temperature could mostly be attributed to the remarkable warming trend in spring, autumn and winter. Warming rates in the northern basins were generally much higher than in the southern basins. However, both the annual precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation of the three river basins showed little change in the study area average, but distinct interannual variations since 1957 and clear regional differences. An overall warming-wetting tendency was found in the northwestern and southeastern river basins in 1957-2013, while the central regions tended to become warmer and drier. Results from a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) showed that the interannual variations of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature over the three river basins were both associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 1957. ENSO SST patterns affected precipitation and surface air temperature variability throughout the year, but with very different response patterns in the different seasons. For instance, temperature in most of the river basins was positively correlated with central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST in winter and spring, but negatively correlated in summer and autumn. On the decadal time scale, the seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature variations were strongly associated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation.

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

[Association between distribution of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in Beijing, 2004-2015].

PubMed

Du, Z; Zhang, J; Lu, J X; Lu, L P

2018-05-10

Objective: To analyze the distribution characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Beijing during 2004-2015 and evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery. Methods: The incidence data of bacterial dysentery and meteorological data in Beijing from 2004 to 2015 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to study the distribution characteristics of bacterial dysentery. Linear correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to investigate the relationship between the incidence of bacillary dysentery and average precipitation, average air temperature, sunshine hours, average wind speed, average air pressure, gale and rain days. Results: A total of 280 704 cases of bacterial dysentery, including 36 deaths, were reported from 2004 to 2015 in Beijing, the average annual incidence was 130.15/100 000. The annual incidence peak was mainly between May and October, the cases occurred during this period accounted for 80.75 % of the total, and the incidence was highest in age group 0 year. The population distribution showed that most cases were children outside child care settings and students, and the sex ratio of the cases was 1.22∶1. The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery was positively associated with average precipitation, average air temperature and rain days with the correlation coefficients of 0.931, 0.878 and 0.888, but it was negatively associated with the average pressure, the correlation coefficient was -0.820. Multiple linear regression equation for fitting analysis of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors was Y =3.792+0.162 X (1). Conclusion: The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing was much higher than national level. The annual incidence peak was during July to August, and the average precipitation was an important meteorological factor influencing the incidence of bacillary dysentery.

Climate Variation at Flagstaff, Arizona - 1950 to 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, Richard

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION Much scientific research demonstrates the existence of recent climate variation, particularly global warming. Climate prediction models forecast that climate will change; it will become warmer, droughts will increase in number and severity, and extreme climate events will recur often?desiccating aridity, extremely wet, unusually warm, or even frigid at times. However, the global models apply to average conditions in large grids approximately 150 miles on an edge (Thorpe, 2005), and how or whether specific areas within a grid are affected is unclear. Flagstaff's climate is mentioned in the context of global change, but information is lacking on the amount and trend of changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature. The purpose of this report is to understand what may be happening to Flagstaff's climate by reviewing local climate history. Flagstaff is in north-central Arizona south of San Francisco Mountain, which reaches 12,633 feet, the highest in Arizona (fig. 1). At 6,900 feet, surrounded by ponderosa pine forest, Flagstaff enjoys a four-season climate; winter-daytime temperatures are cool, averaging 45 degrees (Fahrenheit). Summer-daytime temperatures are comfortable, averaging 80 degrees, which is pleasant compared with nearby low-elevation deserts. Flagstaff?s precipitation averages 22-inches per year with a range of 9 to 39 inches. Snowfall occurs each season, averaging 97 inches annually. This report, written for the non-technical reader, interprets climate variation at Flagstaff as observed at the National Weather Service (NWS) station at Pulliam Field (or Airport), a first-order weather station staffed by meteorologists (Staudenmaier and others, 2007). The station is on a flat-topped ridge surrounded by forest 5-miles south of Flagstaff at an elevation of 7,003 feet. Data used in this analysis are daily measurements of precipitation (including snowfall) and temperature (maximum and minimum) covering the period from 1950, when the station began operation, through spring 2007. Conversations with Byron Peterson and Michael Staudenmaier of the NWS helped us understand the difficulties of collecting consistent weather data, operation of the station, and Flagstaff's climate. Weather is the daily or even instantaneous state of temperature and precipitation. Climate is the average or accumulation of these parameters over longer time scales such as a week, month, or year. Seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) and annual averages of temperature and accumulated precipitation describe the temporal variation of Flagstaff's climate, which is shown graphically with time series (figs. 2, 4, 6, 8-15). These plots show precipitation or temperature on the ordinate plotted against time on the abscissa, which is a year for annually repeating data or the year of a particular season. The plots reveal changing patterns of precipitation and temperature related to droughts, wet episodes, and rising temperatures.

[Variation characteristics and influencing factors of actual evapotranspiration under various vegetation types: A case study in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

PubMed

Wu, Rong Jun; Xing, Xiao Yong

2016-06-01

The actual evapotranspiration was modelled utilizing the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) in Huaihe River Basin from 2001 to 2012. In the meantime, the quantitative analyses of the spatial-temporal variations of actual evapotranspiration characteristics and its influencing factors under different vegetation types were conducted. The results showed that annual evapotranspiration gradually decreased from southeast to northwest, tended to increase annually, and the monthly change for the average annual evapotranspiration was double-peak curve. The differences of evapotranspiration among vegetation types showed that the farmland was the largest contributor for the evapotranspiration of Huaihe Basin. The annual actual evapotranspiration of the mixed forest per unit area was the largest, and that of the bare ground per unit area was the smallest. The changed average annual evapotranspiration per unit area for various vegetation types indicated an increased tendency other than the bare ground, with a most significant increase trend for the evergreen broadleaf forest. The thermodynamic factors (such as average temperature) were the dominant factors affecting the actual evapotranspiration in the Huaihe Basin, followed by radiation and moisture factors.

Evidence for Solar-Cycle Forcing and Secular Variation in the Armagh Observatory Temperature Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1998-01-01

A prominent feature of previous long-term temperature studies has been the appearance of warming since the 1880s, this often being taken as evidence for anthropogenic-induced global warming. In this investigation, the long-term, annual, mean temperature record (1844-1992) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, North Ireland), a set of temperature data based on maximum and minimum thermometers that predates the 1880s and correlates well with northern hemispheric and global standards, is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar-cycle forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both appear to be embedded within the Armagh data. Removal of these effects, each contributing about 8% to the overall reduction in variance, yields residuals that are randomly distributed. Application of the 10-year moving average to the residuals, furthermore, strongly suggests that the behavior of the residuals is episodic, inferring that (for extended periods of time) temperatures at Armagh sometimes were warmer or cooler (than expected), while at other times they were stable. Comparison of cyclic averages of annual mean temperatures against the lengths of the associated Hale cycles (i.e., the length of two, sequentially numbered, even-odd sunspot cycle pairs) strongly suggests that the temperatures correlate inversely (r = -0.886 at less than 2% level of significance) against the length of the associated Hale cycle. Because sunspot cycle 22 ended in 1996, the present Hale cycle probably will be shorter than average, implying that temperatures at Armagh over this Hale cycle will be warmer (about 9.31 q 0.23 C at the 90% confidence level) than average (= 9.00 C).

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

PubMed

Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

2015-01-01

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

The relationships between chemical and genetic differentiation and environmental factors across the distribution of Erigeron breviscapus (Asteraceae).

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Peng, Li-yan; Zhang, Shu-dong; Zhao, Qin-shi; Yi, Ting-shuang

2013-01-01

Erigeron breviscapus (Vant.) Hand.-Mazz. is an important, widely used Chinese herb with scutellarin, 1,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid, 3,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid and erigoster B being its major active compounds. We aimed to resolve the influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the concentrations of these compounds and to determine appropriate cultivation methods to improve the yields of the four compounds in this herb. In order to detect the major genetic and natural environmental factors affecting the yields of these four compounds, we applied AFLP markers to investigate the population genetic differentiation and HPLC to measure the concentrations of four major active compounds among 23 wild populations which were located across almost the entire distribution of this species in China. The meteorological data including annual average temperature, annual average precipitation and annual average hours of sunshine were collected. The relationships among the concentrations of four compounds and environmental factors and genetic differentiation were studied. Low intraspecific genetic differentiation is detected, and there is no obvious correlation between the genetic differentiation and the contents of the chemical compounds. We investigated the correlation between the concentrationsof four compounds (scutellarin, 1,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid, 3,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid and erigoster B) and environmental factors. Concentrations of two compounds (1,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid and 3,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid) were correlated with environmental factors. The concentration of 1,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid is positively correlated with latitude, and is negatively correlated with the annual average temperature. The concentration of 3,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid is positively correlated with annual average precipitation. Therefore, changing cultivation conditions may significantly improve the yields of these two compounds. We found the concentration of scutellarin positively correlated with that of erigoster B and 3,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid, respectively. We inferred that the synthesis of these two pairs of compounds may share similar triggering mechanism as they synthesized in a common pathway.

Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moatar, Florentina; Gailhard, Joël

2006-05-01

Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8 °C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).

Estimation of base temperatures for nine weed species.

PubMed

Steinmaus, S J; Prather, T S; Holt, J S

2000-02-01

Experiments were conducted to test several methods for estimating low temperature thresholds for seed germination. Temperature responses of nine weeds common in annual agroecosystems were assessed in temperature gradient experiments. Species included summer annuals (Amaranthus albus, A. palmeri, Digitaria sanguinalis, Echinochloa crus-galli, Portulaca oleracea, and Setaria glauca), winter annuals (Hirschfeldia incana and Sonchus oleraceus), and Conyza canadensis, which is classified as a summer or winter annual. The temperature below which development ceases (Tbase) was estimated as the x-intercept of four conventional germination rate indices regressed on temperature, by repeated probit analysis, and by a mathematical approach. An overall Tbase estimate for each species was the average across indices weighted by the reciprocal of the variance associated with the estimate. Germination rates increased linearly with temperature between 15 degrees C and 30 degrees C for all species. Consistent estimates of Tbase were obtained for most species using several indices. The most statistically robust and biologically relevant method was the reciprocal time to median germination, which can also be used to estimate other biologically meaningful parameters. The mean Tbase for summer annuals (13.8 degrees C) was higher than that for winter annuals (8.3 degrees C). The two germination response characteristics, Tbase and slope (rate), influence a species' germination behaviour in the field since the germination inhibiting effects of a high Tbase may be offset by the germination promoting effects of a rapid germination response to temperature. Estimates of Tbase may be incorporated into predictive thermal time models to assist weed control practitioners in making management decisions.

Climate change effects on livestock in the Northeast U.S. and strategies for adaptation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The livestock industries are a major contributor to the economy of the northeastern United States. Climate models predict increased average maximum temperatures, days with temperatures exceeding 25°C, and higher annual precipitation in the Northeast. These environmental changes combined with increas...

Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

PubMed

Huber, John H; Childs, Marissa L; Caldwell, Jamie M; Mordecai, Erin A

2018-05-01

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal variation in temperature, the model provides a baseline for mechanistically understanding environmental suitability for virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Overlaying the impact of human activities and socioeconomic factors onto this mechanistic temperature-dependent framework is critical for understanding likelihood and magnitude of outbreaks.

Annual ecosystem respiration variability of alpine peatland on the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its controlling factors.

PubMed

Peng, Haijun; Hong, Bing; Hong, Yetang; Zhu, Yongxuan; Cai, Chen; Yuan, Lingui; Wang, Yu

2015-09-01

Peatlands are widely developed in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, but little is known about carbon budgets for these alpine peatland ecosystems. In this study, we used an automatic chamber system to measure ecosystem respiration in the Hongyuan peatland, which is located in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Annual ecosystem respiration measurements showed a typical seasonal pattern, with the peak appearing in June. The highest respiration was 10.43 μmol CO2/m(2)/s, and the lowest was 0.20 μmol CO2/m(2)/s. The annual average ecosystem respiration was 2.06 μmol CO2/m(2)/s. The total annual respiration was 599.98 g C/m(2), and respiration during the growing season (from May to September) accounted for 78 % of the annual sum. Nonlinear regression revealed that ecosystem respiration has a significant exponential correlation with soil temperature at 10-cm depth (R (2) = 0.98). The Q 10 value was 3.90, which is far higher than the average Q 10 value of terrestrial ecosystems. Ecosystem respiration had an apparent diurnal variation pattern in growing season, with peaks and valleys appearing at approximately 14:00 and 10:00, respectively, which could be explained by soil temperature and soil water content variation at 10-cm depth.

Sensitivity of River Runoff in Bhutan to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonessa, M. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Dorji, C.; Wangmo, D.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Richey, J. E.

2013-12-01

In the past decades there has been increasing concern about the potential effects of climate change on runoff and water resources all over the world under different conditions. Various studies have indicated that climate change will have an impact on runoff and stream flow. Bhutan is one of the countries in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region which shows more warming than the global average. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a macroscale hydrological model, was used to assess the hydrology of the country and the potential impacts of climate change on water availability. Precipitation and temperature were perturbed to study the runoff sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes. The VIC model was run at 1/24° latitude-longitude resolution. The modeled mean annual runoff elasticity which measures fractional change in annual runoff divided by fractional change in annual precipitation ranges from 1.08 to 2.16. The elasticity value is lower for higher reference precipitations and vice versa. The runoff sensitivity to temperature represents the percentage change in annual runoff per 1°C change in temperature. Runoff sensitivities are negative and range from -1.36%/°C to -1.70%/°C. Spatially, both greater elasticity and sensitivity occur towards the northern part of the country where elevation is more than 5000 m above sea level. Based on the coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) average model results, both precipitation and temperature are predicted to increase in Bhutan in the 21st century. Annually, P is expected to increase by 0.45 to 8.7% under RCP4.5 emission scenario and 1.95 to 14.26% under RCP8.5 emission. The mean annual temperature increment ranges from +1.1 to +2.6°C under RCP4.5 and +1.2 to +4.5°C under RCP8.5 emission scenario. These changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to result in runoff changes ranging from -1.0 to +14.3% and +2.2 to +23.1% increments under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively, with the increment getting bigger towards the end of the century. Keywords: Climate change; runoff elasticity; runoff sensitivity; Bhutan.

Delineation of soil temperature regimes from HCMM data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Day, R. L.; Petersen, G. W. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The subsetting of HCMM data into ORSER format was completed for four dates using a modified SUBSET program. Large areas (approximately 2500 scan lines, 1680 elements) were selected to increase the occurrence of suitable control points for registration. Average daily temperatures (ADT) were calculated for each date. The MERGE program combined registered daytime temperature (DAY-IR) with nighttime temperature (NIGHT-IR) to form a separate two-channel data set. The SUBTRAN program averaged the DAY-IR and NIGHT-IR creating a third ADT channel. Registration equations for the four ADT data sets were generated. A one dimensional soil heat flow equation was modified to allow for mean annual soil temperature predictions using merged ADT data sets.

Impact of air temperature variation on the ixodid ticks habitat and tick-borne encephalitis incidence in the Russian Arctic: the case of the Komi Republic.

PubMed

Tokarevich, N; Tronin, A; Gnativ, B; Revich, B; Blinova, O; Evengard, B

2017-01-01

The causes of the recent rise of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence in Europe are discussed. Our objective was to estimate the impact of air temperature change on TBE incidence in the European part of the Russian Arctic. We analysed the TBE incidence in the Komi Republic (RK) over a 42-year period in relation to changes in local annual average air temperature, air temperature during the season of tick activity, tick abundance, TBE-prevalence in ticks, tick-bite incidence rate, and normalised difference vegetation index within the area under study. In 1998-2011 in RK a substantial growth of TBE virus (TBEV) prevalence both in questing and feeding ticks was observed. In 1992-2011 there was 23-fold growth of the tick-bite incidence rate in humans, a northward shift of the reported tick bites, and the season of tick bites increased from 4 to 6 months. In 1998-2011 there was more than 6-fold growth of average annual TBE incidence compared with 1970-1983 and 1984-1997 periods. This resulted both from the northward shift of TBE, and its growth in the south. In our view it was related to local climate change as both the average annual air temperature, and the air temperature during the tick activity season grew substantially. We revealed in RK a strong correlation between the change in the air temperature and that in TBE incidence. The satellite data showed NDVI growth within RK, i.e. alteration of the local ecosystem under the influence of climate change. The rise in TBE incidence in RK is related considerably to the expansion of the range of Ixodes persulcatus. The territory with reported TBE cases also expanded northward. Climate change is an important driver of TBE incidence rate growth.

Average Annual Rainfall Over the Globe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agrawal, D. C.

2013-12-01

The atmospheric recycling of water is a very important phenomenon on the globe because it not only refreshes the water but it also redistributes it over land and oceans/rivers/lakes throughout the globe. This is made possible by the solar energy intercepted by the Earth. The half of the globe facing the Sun, on the average, intercepts 1.74×1017 J of solar radiation per second and it is divided over various channels as given in Table 1. It keeps our planet warm and maintains its average temperature2 of 288 K with the help of the atmosphere in such a way that life can survive. It also recycles the water in the oceans/rivers/ lakes by initial evaporation and subsequent precipitation; the average annual rainfall over the globe is around one meter. According to M. King Hubbert the amount of solar power going into the evaporation and precipitation channel is 4.0×1016 W. Students can verify the value of average annual rainfall over the globe by utilizing this part of solar energy. This activity is described in the next section.

Cold desert fire and invasive species management: Resources, strategies, tactics, and response

Treesearch

Jeanne C. Chambers; Elizabeth Leger; Erin Goergen

2009-01-01

The cold desert of North America, sometimes referred to as the Intermountain area, is comprised of a western Great Basin section and an eastern Colorado Plateau section. In general, the cold desert receives more than half of its annual precipitation as snow, and because of its more northern latitude or higher elevations, has relatively low average annual temperatures....

[Natural forming causes of China population distribution].

PubMed

Fang, Yu; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua; Xiao, Yi; Niu, Jun-Feng; Chen, Sheng-Bin; Lu, Fei

2012-12-01

The diverse natural environment in China causes the spatial heterogeneity of China population distribution. It is essential to understand the interrelations between the population distribution pattern and natural environment to enhance the understanding of the man-land relationship and the realization of the sustainable management for the population, resources, and environment. This paper analyzed the China population distribution by adopting the index of population density (PD) in combining with spatial statistic method and Lorenz curve, and discussed the effects of the natural factors on the population distribution and the interrelations between the population distribution and 16 indices including average annual precipitation (AAP), average annual temperature (AAT), average annual sunshine duration (AASD), precipitation variation (PV), temperature variation (TV), sunshine duration variation (SDV), relative humidity (RH), aridity index (AI), warmth index ( WI), > or = 5 degrees C annual accumulated temperature (AACT), average elevation (AE), relative height difference (RHD), surface roughness (SR), water system density (WSD), net primary productivity (NPP), and shortest distance to seashore (SDTS). There existed an obvious aggregation phenomenon in the population distribution in China. The PD was high in east China, medium in central China, and low in west China, presenting an obvious positive spatial association. The PD was significantly positively correlated with WSD, AAT, AAP, NPP, AACT, PV, RH, and WI, and significantly negatively correlated with RHD, AE, SDV, SR, and SDTS. The climate factors (AAT, WI, PV, and NPP), topography factors (SR and RHD), and water system factor (WSD) together determined the basic pattern of the population distribution in China. It was suggested that the monitoring of the eco-environment in the east China of high population density should be strengthened to avoid the eco-environmental degradation due to the expanding population, and the conservation of the eco-environment in the central and west China with vulnerable eco-environment should also be strengthened to enhance the population carrying ability of these regions and to mitigate the eco-environmental pressure in the east China of high population density.

On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index () in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the is inferred to correlate best against the parameter incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the and is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the , which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide () index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the and , the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period).

An annual quasidifference approach to water price elasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, David R.; Griffin, Ronald C.

2008-08-01

The preferred price specification for retail water demand estimation has not been fully settled by prior literature. Empirical consistency of price indices is necessary to enable testing of competing specifications. Available methods of unbiasing the price index are summarized here. Using original rate information from several hundred Texas utilities, new indices of marginal and average price change are constructed. Marginal water price change is shown to explain consumption variation better than average water price change, based on standard information criteria. Annual change in quantity consumed per month is estimated with differences in climate variables and the new quasidifference marginal price index. As expected, the annual price elasticity of demand is found to vary with daily high and low temperatures and the frequency of precipitation.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles.

PubMed

Vourlitis, George L; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration (E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52% of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42% of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlitis, George L.; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration ( E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52 % of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42 % of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Chapter 3: Climate Change

Treesearch

Steve McNulty; Jennifer Moore Myers; Peter Caldwell; Ge Sun

2011-01-01

Since 1960, all but two southern capital cities (Montgomery, AL and Oklahoma City, OK) have experienced a statistically significant increase in average annual temperature (approximately 0.016 °C), but none has experienced significant trends in precipitation. The South is forecasted to experience warmer temperatures for the duration of the 21st century; forecasts are...

Vegetation Response to Changing Climate - A Case Study from Gandaki River Basin in Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.; Kirat, N. H.; Dahal, P.

2015-12-01

The climate of the Himalayan region is changing rapidly - temperature is increasingly high and rainfall has become unpredictable. IPCC predicts that average annual mean temperature over the Asian land mass, including the Himalayas, will increase by about 3°C by the 2050s and about 5°C by the 2080s and the average annual precipitation in this region will increase by 10-30% by 2080s. Climate and the human activities can influence the land cover status and the eco-environmental quality. There are enough evidences that there is strong interaction between climate variability and ecosystems. A project was carried out in Gandaki river basin in central Nepal to analyze the relationship of NDVI vegetation index with the temperature, rainfall and snowcover information. The relationships were analyzed for different landuses classes-grassland, forest and agriculture. Results show that the snowcover area is decreasing at the rate of 0.15% per year in the basin. The NDVI shows seasonal fluctuations and lightly correlated with the rainfall and temperature.

Long-term changes in the hydroclimatic characteristics in the Baikal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voropay, N. N.; Kichigina, N. V.

2018-01-01

Since the end of the 19th century, global air temperature has been increasing. The period after 1976 is called the period of the most intensive warming. In Russia, the average annual air temperature rises at a rate of + 0.43 ° C / 10 years. The change of precipitation over the last 50-60 years on average in Russia is not significant. In the Baikal region, precipitation increase during the warm period (10-11%) and decrease during the cold period (4%). It is reflected on hydrological regime and the factors of river flow formation. The regional features of the hydrological regime dynamics of the Baikal region against the background of climate change are considered. Groups of the rivers with similar alternations of low water and high-water periods are allocated. Trends in runoff are analyzed. The increase in air temperature leads to intra annual redistribution of river flow. The majority of statistically significant trends of river run off are observed during the cold period of year.

The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachatryan, S.

2009-05-01

Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft3/s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow.Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells.Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts.Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

The exceptional recent warming signal in a long-term central-German observation site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Andreas; Schönwiese, Christian-Dietrich

2017-04-01

The long-term temperature measurements of Frankfurt/Main represent a scientifically highly valuable source for investigating climatic changes in central Germany and beyond. Annual data are available since 1758 and daily observations since 1870. The 258 year long annual time series is homogenised and recalculated to the airport location outside of Frankfurt/Main city. In a first step, impacts of site changes and urbanisation effects are discussed comparing the five different inner-city monitoring points and the airport location after WWII. We show that site changes affect both extreme and average temperatures, and that they may be considerable even for small relocations. Urbanisation effects are visible all year long and stronger for minimum than maximum temperatures. Annual temperature observations show slightly decreasing temperatures until the 1840s. This development is then replaced by an increasing trend overlain by decadal-scale and yearly fluctuations. Nevertheless, until the 1980s shifting 30-year-means only fluctuate between 8.54 °C in 1829-1858 and 9.58 °C in 1948-1977. However, recent years more than doubled the 1 K spread between the coldest and warmest period, with an average of 10.82 °C in 1986-2015. In addition, this 30-year period was warmer than any single year before 1990. Record-cold calendar days almost disappeared since 1988, while record-warm calendar days appeared about three times more often than statistically expectable. Strong warming was observed year-round, only September and October showed more moderate trends.

Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yihui; Ren, Guoyu; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying; Luo, Yong; Li, Qiaoping; Zhang, Jin

2007-11-01

This article summarizes the main results and findings of studies conducted by Chinese scientists in the past five years. It is shown that observed climate change in China bears a strong similarity with the global average. The country-averaged annual mean surface air temperature has increased by 1.1°C over the past 50 years and 0.5-0.8°C over the past 100 years, slightly higher than the global temperature increase for the same periods. Northern China and winter have experienced the greatest increases in surface air temperature. Although no significant trend has been found in country-averaged annual precipitation, interdecadal variability and obvious trends on regional scales are detectable, with northwestern China and the mid and lower Yangtze River basin having undergone an obvious increase, and North China a severe drought. Some analyses show that frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events have also undergone significant changes in the past 50 years or so. Studies of the causes of regional climate change through the use of climate models and consideration of various forcings, show that the warming of the last 50 years could possibly be attributed to an increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, while the temperature change of the first half of the 20th century may be due to solar activity, volcanic eruptions and sea surface temperature change. A significant decline in sunshine duration and solar radiation at the surface in eastern China has been attributed to the increased emission of pollutants. Projections of future climate by models of the NCC (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration) and the IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences), as well as 40 models developed overseas, indicate a potential significant warming in China in the 21st century, with the largest warming set to occur in winter months and in northern China. Under varied emission scenarios, the country-averaged annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.1°C by 2020, 2.3-3.3°C by 2050, and by 3.9-6.0°C by 2100, in comparison to the 30-year average of 1961-1990. Most models project a 10%-12% increase in annual precipitation in China by 2100, with the trend being particularly evident in Northeast and Northwest China, but with parts of central China probably undergoing a drying trend. Large uncertainty exists in the projection of precipitation, and further studies are needed. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change will probably lead to a weaker winter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon in eastern Asia.

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

Land use change influences soil C, N, and P stoichiometry under ‘Grain-to-Green Program’ in China

PubMed Central

Fazhu, Zhao; Jiao, Sun; Chengjie, Ren; Di, Kang; Jian, Deng; Xinhui, Han; Gaihe, Yang; Yongzhong, Feng; Guangxin, Ren

2015-01-01

Changes in land use might affect the combined C, N and P stoichiometry in soil. The Grain-to-Green Program (GTGP), which converts low-yield croplands or abandoned lands into forest, shrub, and/or grassland, was the largest land reforestation project in China. This study collected the reported C, N and P contents of soil in GTGP zones to achieve the factors driving the changes in the C:N, C:P, and N:P values. The results showed that the annual average precipitation exerted significant effects on the C:P value, and on the N:P value became significant 20 years after the change in land use. The annual average temperature was the main factor affecting the C:N value during the first 10 years, while the annual average precipitation strongly affected this value afterwards. In addition, “Redfield-like” interactions between C, N, and P in the soil may exist. A linear regression revealed significant positive correlations between the C:N, C:P, and N:P values and the restoration age, temperature, and precipitation after a change in land use. Therefore large-scale changes in land use under the ‘GTGP’ program might significantly affect the C:N, C:P and N:P ratios in soil. PMID:25988714

[Geographical distribution of the Serum creatinine reference values of healthy adults].

PubMed

Wei, De-Zhi; Ge, Miao; Wang, Cong-Xia; Lin, Qian-Yi; Li, Meng-Jiao; Li, Peng

2016-11-20

To explore the relationship between serum creatinine (Scr) reference values in healthy adults and geographic factors and provide evidence for establishing Scr reference values in different regions. We collected 29 697 Scr reference values from healthy adults measured by 347 medical facilities from 23 provinces, 4 municipalities and 5 autonomous regions. We chose 23 geographical factors and analyzed their correlation with Scr reference values to identify the factors correlated significantly with Scr reference values. According to the Principal component analysis and Ridge regression analysis, two predictive models were constructed and the optimal model was chosen after comparison of the two model's fitting degree of predicted results and measured results. The distribution map of Scr reference values was drawn using the Kriging interpolation method. Seven geographic factors, including latitude, annual sunshine duration, annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity, annual precipitation, annual temperature range and topsoil (silt) cation exchange capacity were found to correlate significantly with Scr reference values. The overall distribution of Scr reference values featured a pattern that the values were high in the south and low in the north, varying consistently with the latitude change. The data of the geographic factors in a given region allows the prediction of the Scr values in healthy adults. Analysis of these geographical factors can facilitate the determination of the reference values specific to a region to improve the accuracy for clinical diagnoses.

Long-term monitoring of airborne pollen in Alaska and the Yukon: Possible implications for global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, J.H.

Airborne pollen and spores have been sampled since 1978 in Fairbanks and 1982 Anchorage and other Alaska-Yukon locations for medical and ecological purposes. Comparative analyses of pre- and post-1986 data subsets reveal that after 1986 (1) pollen is in the air earlier, (2) the multiyear average of degree-days promoting pollen onset is little changed while (3) annual variation in degree-days at onset is greater, (4) pollen and spore annual productions are considerably higher, and (5) there is more year-to-year variation in pollen production. These changes probably reflect directional changes in certain weather variables, and there is some indication that theymore » are of global change significance, i.e., related to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Correlations with pollen data suggest that weather variables of high influence are temperatures during specific periods following pollen dispersal in the preceding year and the average temperature in April of the current year. Annual variations in pollen dispersal might be roughly linked to the 11 year sunspot cycle through air temperature mediators. Weather in 1990, apparent pollen production cycles under endogenous control, and the impending sunspot maximum portend a very severe pollen season in 199 existing but unfunded sampling projects.« less

Temperature calibration of amino acid racemization: age implications for the Yuha skeleton

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bischoff, J.L.; Childers, W.M.

1979-01-01

D/L of aspartic acid ranged from 0.52 to 0.56 for femur samples of the Yuha skeleton. Subsurface temperature measurements made at the burial site indicate average annual temperature is 18??C and diagenetic temperature is 21.6??C. These data and a relation derived for the dependence of the aspartic acid rate constant on diagenetic temperature indicate an age of 23,600. The result is consistent with 14C and 230Th dating of calcrete found coating the bones. ?? 1979.

[Relationship between reference values of fibrinogen and geographical factors based on neural network analysis].

PubMed

Li, Meng-Jiao; Ge, Miao; Wang, Cong-Xia; Cen, Min-Yi; Jiang, Ji-Lin; He, Jin-Wei; Lin, Qian-Yi; Liu, Xin

2016-08-20

To analyze the relationship between the reference values of fibrinogen (FIB) in healthy Chinese adults and geographical factors to provide scientific evidences for establishing the uniform standard. The reference values of FIB of 10701 Chinese healthy adults from 103 cities were collected to investigate their relationship with 18 geographical factors including spatial index, terrain index, climate index, and soil index. Geographical factors that significantly correlated with the reference values were selected for constructing the BP neural network model. The spatial distribution map of the reference value of FIB of healthy Chinese adults was fitted by disjunctive kriging interpolation. We used the 5-layer neural network and selected 2000 times of training covering 11 hidden layers to build the simulation rule for simulating the relationship between FIB and geographical environmental factors using the MATLAB software. s The reference value of FIB in healthy Chinese adults was significantly correlated with the latitude, sunshine duration, annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity, annual precipitation, annual range of air temperature, average annual soil gravel content, and soil cation exchange capacity (silt). The artificial neural networks were created to analyze the simulation of the selected indicators of geographical factors. The spatial distribution map of the reference values of FIB in healthy Chinese adults showed a distribution pattern that FIB levels were higher in the South and lower in the North, and higher in the East and lower in the West. When the geographical factors of a certain area are known, the reference values of FIB in healthy Chinese adults can be obtained by establishing the neural network mode or plotting the spatial distribution map.

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures and air temperatures calculated with three equations: a case study from three Croatian stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonacci, Ognjen; Željković, Ivana; Trogrlić, Robert Šakić; Milković, Janja

2013-10-01

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures T0 [Eq. (1)] and temperatures calculated with three different equations [(2), (3) and (4)] (commonly used in climatological practice) were investigated at three main meteorological Croatian stations from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2011. The stations are situated in the following three climatically distinct areas: (1) Zagreb-Grič (mild continental climate), (2) Zavižan (cold mountain climate), and (3) Dubrovnik (hot Mediterranean climate). T1 [Eq. (2)] and T3 [Eq. (4)] mean temperatures are defined by the algorithms based on the weighted means of temperatures measured at irregularly spaced, yet fixed hours. T2 [Eq. (3)] is the mean temperature defined as the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature. The equation as well as the time of observations used introduces a bias into mean temperatures. The largest differences occur for mean daily temperatures. The calculated daily difference value from all three equations and all analysed stations varies from -3.73 °C to +3.56 °C, from -1.39 °C to +0.79 °C for monthly differences and from -0.76 °C to +0.30 °C for annual differences.

Rapid Recent Warming of Coral Reefs in the Florida Keys.

PubMed

Manzello, Derek P

2015-11-16

Coral reef decline in the Florida Keys has been well-publicized, controversial, and polarizing owing to debate over the causative agent being climate change versus overfishing. The recurrence of mass bleaching in 2014, the sixth event since 1987, prompted a reanalysis of temperature data. The summer and winter of 2014 were the warmest on record. The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975-2014. The average number of days ≥31.5 and 32(o)C per year increased 2670% and 2560%, respectively, from the mid-1990 s to present relative to the previous 20 years. In every year after 1992 and 1994, maximum daily average temperatures exceeded 30.5 and 31°C, respectively. From 1975-1994, temperatures were <31 °C in 61% of years, and in 44% of the years prior to 1992 temperatures were <30.5 °C. The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures. These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.

Effects of temperature variation on suicide in five U.S. counties, 1991-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, P. G.; McDonald, A. N.; Scheitlin, K. N.; Stapleton, J. E.; Allen, J. S.; Carter, W. M.; Holley, M. R.; Inman, D. D.; Roberts, J. B.

2007-05-01

Effects of weather variables on suicide are well-documented, but there is still little consistency among the results of most studies. Nevertheless, most studies show a peak in suicides during the spring season, and this is often attributed to increased temperatures. The purpose of this study is to test the relationship between monthly temperature and monthly suicide, independent of months or seasons, for five counties located across the United States. Harmonic analysis shows that four of the five counties display some seasonal components in the suicide data. However, simple linear regression shows no correlation between suicide and temperature, and discriminant analysis shows that monthly departure from mean annual suicide rates is not a useful tool for identifying months with temperatures that are colder or warmer than the annual average. Therefore, it appears that the seasonality of suicides is due to factors other than temperature.

[The analysis of climatic and biological parameters for the pest spread risk modelling of the wood nematode species Bursaphelenchus spp. and Devibursaphelenchus teratospicularis (Rhabditida: Aphelenchoidea)].

PubMed

Ryss, A Y; Mokrousov, M V

2014-01-01

Based on the forest woody species wilt areassurvey in Nizhniy Novgorod region in August 2014, the possible factors of the pest spread risk modelling were analysed on six species of the genus Bursaphelenchus and Devibursaphelenchus teratospicularis using six parameters: plant host species, beetle vector species, average temperatures in July and January, annual precipitation. It was concluded that these parameters in the evaluated wilt spots correspond to climatic and biological data of the already published woody plants wilt records in Europe and Asia caused by the same nematode pest species. It was speculated that the annual precipitation of 600 mm and average July temperature of 25 degrees C or higher, are the critical combination that may be used to develop the predicative risk modelling in the forests' and parks' wilt monitoring.

Streamflow, sediment-transport, and water-temperature characteristics of the three small watersheds in the Alsea River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, David Dell; Williams, Robert Charles

1971-01-01

Data collected during the prelogging period 1959-65 indicate an average annual runoff for Needle Branch and Deer and Flynn Creeks of 74.2, 75.1, and 77.7 inches, respectively. The measured precipitation at Flynn Creek of 92.9 inches was 5 inches less than at either Needle Branch or Deer Creek. Unit flood runoff during the prelogging period was found to be lowest on Flynn Creek and highest on Needle Branch. On Needle Branch, there appear to be two distinct low-flow patterns, one for a saturated and one for an unsaturated soil condition. The average annual sediment yield was highest on Flynn Creek, 321 tons per square mile, and lowest on Needle Branch, 166 tons per square mile. Maximum water temperatures were 62?F on Flynn Creek and 61?F on Needle Branch and Deer Creek.

Mass balance, meteorology, area altitude distribution, glacier-surface altitude, ice motion, terminus position, and runoff at Gulkana Glacier, Alaska, 1996 balance year

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.

2003-01-01

The 1996 measured winter snow, maximum winter snow, net, and annual balances in the Gulkana Glacier Basin were evaluated on the basis of meteorological, hydrological, and glaciological data. Averaged over the glacier, the measured winter snow balance was 0.87 meter on April 18, 1996, 1.1 standard deviation below the long-term average; the maximum winter snow balance, 1.06 meters, was reached on May 28, 1996; and the net balance (from August 30, 1995, to August 24, 1996) was -0.53 meter, 0.53 standard deviation below the long-term average. The annual balance (October 1, 1995, to September 30, 1996) was -0.37 meter. Area-averaged balances were reported using both the 1967 and 1993 area altitude distributions (the numbers previously given in this abstract use the 1993 area altitude distribution). Net balance was about 25 percent less negative using the 1993 area altitude distribution than the 1967 distribution. Annual average air temperature was 0.9 degree Celsius warmer than that recorded with the analog sensor used since 1966. Total precipitation catch for the year was 0.78 meter, 0.8 standard deviations below normal. The annual average wind speed was 3.5 meters per second in the first year of measuring wind speed. Annual runoff averaged 1.50 meters over the basin, 1.0 standard deviation below the long-term average. Glacier-surface altitude and ice-motion changes measured at three index sites document seasonal ice-speed and glacier-thickness changes. Both showed a continuation of a slowing and thinning trend present in the 1990s. The glacier terminus and lower ablation area were defined for 1996 with a handheld Global Positioning System survey of 126 locations spread out over about 4 kilometers on the lower glacier margin. From 1949 to 1996, the terminus retreated about 1,650 meters for an average retreat rate of 35 meters per year.

Inferring watershed hydraulics and cold-water habitat persistence using multi-year air and stream temperature signals.

PubMed

Briggs, Martin A; Johnson, Zachary C; Snyder, Craig D; Hitt, Nathaniel P; Kurylyk, Barret L; Lautz, Laura; Irvine, Dylan J; Hurley, Stephen T; Lane, John W

2018-09-15

Streams strongly influenced by groundwater discharge may serve as "climate refugia" for sensitive species in regions of increasingly marginal thermal conditions. The main goal of this study is to develop paired air and stream water annual temperature signal analysis techniques to elucidate the relative groundwater contribution to stream water and the effective groundwater flowpath depth. Groundwater discharge to streams attenuates surface water temperature signals, and this attenuation can be diagnostic of groundwater gaining systems. Additionally, discharge from shallow groundwater flowpaths can theoretically transfer lagged annual temperature signals from aquifer to stream water. Here we explore this concept using multi-year temperature records from 120 stream sites located across 18 mountain watersheds of Shenandoah National Park, VA, USA and a coastal watershed in Massachusetts, USA. Both areas constitute important cold-water habitat for native brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Observed annual temperature signals indicate a dominance of shallow groundwater discharge to streams in the National Park, in contrast to the coastal watershed that has strong, apparently deeper, groundwater influence. The average phase lag from air to stream signals in Shenandoah National Park is 11 d; however, extended lags of approximately 1 month were observed in a subset of streams. In contrast, the coastal stream has pronounced attenuation of annual temperature signals without notable phase lag. To better understand these observed differences in signal characteristics, analytical and numerical models are used to quantify mixing of the annual temperature signals of surface and groundwater. Simulations using a total heat budget numerical model indicate groundwater-induced annual temperature signal phase lags are likely to show greater downstream propagation than the related signal amplitude attenuation. The measurement of multi-seasonal paired air and water temperatures offers great promise toward understanding catchment processes and informing current cold-water habitat management at ecologically-relevant scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observed Screen (Air) and GCM Surface/Screen Temperatures: Implications for Outgoing Longwave Fluxes at the Surface.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.

1995-05-01

There is direct evidence that excess net radiation calculated in general circulation models at continental surfaces [of about 11-17 W m2 (20%-27%) on an annual ~1 is not only due to overestimates in annual incoming shortwave fluxes [of 9-18 W m2 (6%-9%)], but also to underestimates in outgoing longwave fluxes. The bias in the outgoing longwave flux is deduced from a comparison of screen-air temperature observations, available as a global climatology of mean monthly values, and model-calculated surface and screen-air temperatures. An underestimate in the screen temperature computed in general circulation models over continents, of about 3 K on an annual basis, implies an underestimate in the outgoing longwave flux, averaged in six models under study, of 11-15 W m2 (3%-4%). For a set of 22 inland stations studied previously, the residual bias on an annual basis (the residual is the net radiation minus incoming shortwave plus outgoing longwave) varies between 18 and 23 W m2 for the models considered. Additional biases in one or both of the reflected shortwave and incoming longwave components cannot be ruled out.

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2018-06-01

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

Atmospheric mold spore counts in relation to meteorological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katial, R. K.; Zhang, Yiming; Jones, Richard H.; Dyer, Philip D.

Fungal spore counts of Cladosporium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum were studied during 8 years in Denver, Colorado. Fungal spore counts were obtained daily during the pollinating season by a Rotorod sampler. Weather data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Daily averages of temperature, relative humidity, daily precipitation, barometric pressure, and wind speed were studied. A time series analysis was performed on the data to mathematically model the spore counts in relation to weather parameters. Using SAS PROC ARIMA software, a regression analysis was performed, regressing the spore counts on the weather variables assuming an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error structure. Cladosporium was found to be positively correlated (P<0.02) with average daily temperature, relative humidity, and negatively correlated with precipitation. Alternaria and Epicoccum did not show increased predictability with weather variables. A mathematical model was derived for Cladosporium spore counts using the annual seasonal cycle and significant weather variables. The model for Alternaria and Epicoccum incorporated the annual seasonal cycle. Fungal spore counts can be modeled by time series analysis and related to meteorological parameters controlling for seasonallity; this modeling can provide estimates of exposure to fungal aeroallergens.

Evaluation of annual efficiencies of high temperature central receiver concentrated solar power plants with thermal energy storage.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehrhart, Brian David; Gill, David Dennis

The current study has examined four cases of a central receiver concentrated solar power plant with thermal energy storage using the DELSOL and SOLERGY computer codes. The current state-of-the-art base case was compared with a theoretical high temperature case which was based on the scaling of some input parameters and the estimation of other parameters based on performance targets from the Department of Energy SunShot Initiative. This comparison was done for both current and high temperature cases in two configurations: a surround field with an external cylindrical receiver and a north field with a single cavity receiver. There is amore » fairly dramatic difference between the design point and annual average performance, especially in the solar field and receiver subsystems, and also in energy losses due to the thermal energy storage being full to capacity. Additionally, there are relatively small differences (<2%) in annual average efficiencies between the Base and High Temperature cases, despite an increase in thermal to electric conversion efficiency of over 8%. This is due the increased thermal losses at higher temperature and operational losses due to subsystem start-up and shut-down. Thermal energy storage can mitigate some of these losses by utilizing larger thermal energy storage to ensure that the electric power production system does not need to stop and re-start as often, but solar energy is inherently transient. Economic and cost considerations were not considered here, but will have a significant impact on solar thermal electric power production strategy and sizing.« less

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Dust deposition in southern Nevada and California, 1984-1989: Relations to climate, source area, and source lithology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reheis, Marith C.; Kihl, Rolf

1995-05-01

Dust samples collected annually for 5 years from 55 sites in southern Nevada and California provide the first regional source of information on modern rates of dust deposition, grain size, and mineralogical and chemical composition relative to climate and to type and lithology of dust source. The average silt and clay flux (rate of deposition) in southern Nevada and southeastern California ranges from 4.3 to 15.7 g/m2/yr, but in southwestern California the average silt and clay flux is as high as 30 g/m2/yr. The climatic factors that affect dust flux interact with each other and with the factors of source type (playas versus alluvium), source lithology, geographic area, and human disturbance. Average dust flux increases with mean annual temperature but is not correlated to decreases in mean annual precipitation because the regional winds bring dust to relatively wet areas. In contrast, annual dust flux mostly reflects changes in annual precipitation (relative drought) rather than temperature. Although playa and alluvial sources produce about the same amount of dust per unit area, the total volume of dust from the more extensive alluvial sources is much larger. In addition, playa and alluvial sources respond differently to annual changes in precipitation. Most playas produce dust that is richer in soluble salts and carbonate than that from alluvial sources (except carbonate-rich alluvium). Gypsum dust may be produced by the interaction of carbonate dust and anthropogenic or marine sulfates. The dust flux in an arid urbanizing area may be as much as twice that before disturbance but decreases when construction stops. The mineralogic and major-oxide composition of the dust samples indicates that sand and some silt is locally derived and deposited, whereas clay and some silt from different sources can be far-traveled. Dust deposited in the Transverse Ranges of California by the Santa Ana winds appears to be mainly derived from sources to the north and east.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Eastern Woodlands and Forests

Treesearch

Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

2011-01-01

The Eastern Woodlands and Forests bioregion is an expansive area with a diversity of forest types and associated ecosystems. Changes that have already been observed within this bioregion include warmer average annual temperatures, earlier dates of runoff, a longer frost-free period, and a longer growing season. During the 21st Century, warmer temperatures and increased...

Long-term trends in shortgrass steppe vegetation during a 21-year period of increasing temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alward, R.D.; Milchunas, D.G.; Detling, J.K.

Long-term weather records from the Central Plains Experimental Range revealed a general warming trend in average annual temperatures from 1971 through 1991. This was largely the result of a significant increase in mean annual minimum temperature (T{sub min}). Permanently marked vegetation quadrants were monitored for much of this same period. We constructed linear correlational models to assess relationships of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation with plant densities and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) within a grazing exclosure. Response variables correlated with T{sub min} included: (i) tiller densities of the dominant grass, Bouteloua gracilis, and other warm season grasses, (ii)more » forb densities and ANPP, and (iii) total ANPP. Responses correlated with T{sub max} included: (i) total basal cover and (ii) densities and ANPP of several species. Plant species diversity was correlated with spring precipitation. Some species responded to the interactive effects of spring temperatures and precipitation. This investigation suggests that shortgrass steppe vegetation may be sensitive to climate change and supports predictions that asymmetric changes in diurnal temperatures may be an important component of climate change.« less

Body temperature variability (Part 2): masking influences of body temperature variability and a review of body temperature variability in disease.

PubMed

Kelly, Gregory S

2007-03-01

This is the second of a two-part review on body temperature variability. Part 1 discussed historical and modern findings on average body temperatures. It also discussed endogenous sources of temperature variability, including variations caused by site of measurement; circadian, menstrual, and annual biological rhythms; fitness; and aging. Part 2 reviews the effects of exogenous masking agents - external factors in the environment, diet, or lifestyle that can be a significant source of body temperature variability. Body temperature variability findings in disease states are also reviewed.

Scaup migration patterns in North Dakota relative to temperatures and water conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, J.E.; Granfors, D.A.; Johnson, M.A.; Kohn, S.C.

2002-01-01

Greater (Aythya marila) and lesser scaup (A. affinis) have protracted spring migrations. Migrants may still be present on southern breeding areas when the annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Surveys (WBPHS) are being conducted. Understanding factors affecting the chronology and rate of spring migration is important for the interpretation of data from annual population surveys. We describe the general temporal pattern of scaup numbers in south-central North Dakota in spring, examine the relationships between scaup numbers and measures of local water conditions and spring temperatures, and assess timing of the WBPHS relative to numbers of scaup occurring in the study area in late May. Scaup were counted weekly on a 95-km, 400-m-wide transect from late March through May, 1957-1999. Average numbers of scaup per count were positively associated with numbers of seasonal, semipermanent, and total ponds. Average minimum daily ambient temperatures showed a trend of increasing temperatures over the 43 years, and dates of peak scaup counts became progressively earlier. Weeks of early migration usually had higher temperatures than weeks of delayed migration. The relationship between temperature and timing of migration was strongest during the second and third weeks of April, which is A# 1 week before numbers peak (median date = 19 Apr). Trends in sex and pair ratios were not consistent among years. Counts in late May-early June indicated considerable annual variability in the magnitude of late migrants. Scaup numbers during this period seemed to stabilize in only 5 of the 19 years when 2 or more surveys were conducted after the WBPHS. These findings corroborate concerns regarding the accuracy of the WBPHS for representing breeding populations of scaup and the possibility of double-counting scaup in some years.

40 CFR 75.19 - Optional SO2, NOX, and CO2 emissions calculation for low mass emissions (LME) units.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... hourly SO2 mass emissions under this section. Alternatively, for fuel oil combustion, a lower, fuel... (or ozone season) prior to the year of the test (g H2O/g air). Ho = Observed humidity ratio during the test run (g H2O/g air). Tr = Average annual atmospheric temperature (or average ozone season...

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal

PubMed Central

Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-01-01

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark–release–recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79–91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. PMID:27440662

Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2012-01-01

Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5 °C with an average increase of 0.06 °C yr(-1). The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr(-1). Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1) and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1), but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.

Widespread Climate Change in the Himalayas and Associated Changes in Local Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2012-01-01

Background Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ∼20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. Methodology/Principal Findings By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5°C with an average increase of 0.06°C yr−1. The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr−1. Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr−1 and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr−1, but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. Conclusions/Significance This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. PMID:22615804

European Temperature Variability and Climate Forcing Over The Last 500 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luterbacher, J.; Wanner, H.; Dietrich, D.; Friedli, T. K.

We present seasonal temperature reconstructions back to 1500 for the European land areas (30W-40E; 35N-70N) on a dense 0.5x0.5 latitude by longitude grid. The reconstructions were developed using PC regression analysis based on the combina- tion of early instrumental station series of temperature and pressure and proxy data from Eurasian sites. The statistical relationships were derived over the 1901-1995 in- strumental period (New et al. 2000) and applied to the pre-1900 data. The reliability of the reconstruction and the time-dependent uncertainty ranges about the estimates are discussed. We derived a high precision winter (DJF), summer (JJA) and annual (J-D) mean Eu- ropean temperature time series from 1500-1998 through averaging of all the 5100 land gridpoints. We found several cold relapses and warm intervals on the decadal timescale, on which shorter-period quasi-oscillatory behaviour was superimposed. Warmer European winters were experienced in the first third of the 16th century, at the beginning of the 17th century and generally in the 20th century. The warmest decade was 1989-1998. Cooler winter conditions were found in the second part of the 16th century, during the Maunder Minimum and in most parts of the 19th century. The coldest decades in winter temperatures were 1586-1595 and the 1690s with 1.5C lower values compared to the 1961-1990 mean. Warm summers were observed from around 1530 to 1570, from the 1750s to the early 19th century, around 1950 and at the end of the 20th century. 1789-1798 and the 1990s were the warmest decades in summer temperatures. Cooler summer periods were prevalent from the 1570s to the beginning of the 17th century, in the middle of the 18th century and at the turn of the 20th century. The summers from 1902-1916 were among the coldest over the last 500 years. The low pass filtered timeseries of the annually averaged temperatures from 1500- 1950 were mainly below the 1961-1990 average. The yearly mean European tempera- ture are partly in agreement with Northern Hemispheric temperature variations (Mann et al. 1998). Finally, the statistical relationship between European annual temperature and recent estimates of climate forcing time series (Robertson et al. 2001) are presented.

The effect of changes in sea surface temperature on linear growth of Porites coral in Ambon Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corvianawatie, Corry, E-mail: corvianawatie@students.itb.ac.id; Putri, Mutiara R., E-mail: mutiara.putri@fitb.itb.ac.id; Cahyarini, Sri Y., E-mail: yuda@geotek.lipi.go.id

Coral is one of the most important organisms in the coral reef ecosystem. There are several factors affecting coral growth, one of them is changes in sea surface temperature (SST). The purpose of this research is to understand the influence of SST variability on the annual linear growth of Porites coral taken from Ambon Bay. The annual coral linear growth was calculated and compared to the annual SST from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST v3b) model. Coral growth was calculated by using Coral X-radiograph Density System (CoralXDS) software. Coral sample X-radiographs were used as input data.more » Chronology was developed by calculating the coral’s annual growth bands. A pair of high and low density banding patterns observed in the coral’s X-radiograph represent one year of coral growth. The results of this study shows that Porites coral extents from 2001-2009 and had an average growth rate of 1.46 cm/year. Statistical analysis shows that the annual coral linear growth declined by 0.015 cm/year while the annual SST declined by 0.013°C/year. SST and the annual linear growth of Porites coral in the Ambon Bay is insignificantly correlated with r=0.304 (n=9, p>0.05). This indicates that annual SST variability does not significantly influence the linear growth of Porites coral from Ambon Bay. It is suggested that sedimentation load, salinity, pH or other environmental factors may affect annual linear coral growth.« less

[Application of regression tree in analyzing the effects of climate factors on NDVI in loess hilly area of Shaanxi Province].

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Lü, Yi-he; Zheng, Hai-feng; Chen, Li-ding

2010-05-01

Based on the 10-day SPOT VEGETATION NDVI data and the daily meteorological data from 1998 to 2007 in Yan' an City, the main meteorological variables affecting the annual and interannual variations of NDVI were determined by using regression tree. It was found that the effects of test meteorological variables on the variability of NDVI differed with seasons and time lags. Temperature and precipitation were the most important meteorological variables affecting the annual variation of NDVI, and the average highest temperature was the most important meteorological variable affecting the inter-annual variation of NDVI. Regression tree was very powerful in determining the key meteorological variables affecting NDVI variation, but could not build quantitative relations between NDVI and meteorological variables, which limited its further and wider application.

Tropical and subtropical humid forests

Treesearch

S.J. Hall

2011-01-01

Tropical humid forests of the United States are located below 1000 m in elevation and experience average year-round temperatures between 20 °C to 26 °C, receive more than 1500 mm of precipitation annually, and experience fewer than three dry months per year.

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

Comparison of Ozone Retrievals from the Pandora Spectrometer System and Dobson Spectrophotometer in Boulder, Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, J.; Evans, R.; Cede, A.; Abuhassan, N.; Petropavlovskikh, I.; McConville, G.

2015-01-01

A comparison of retrieved total column ozone (TCO) amounts between the Pandora #34 spectrometer system and the Dobson #061 spectrophotometer from direct-sun observations was performed on the roof of the Boulder, Colorado, NOAA building. This paper, part of an ongoing study, covers a 1-year period starting on 17 December 2013. Both the standard Dobson and Pandora TCO retrievals required a correction, TCO(sub corr) = TCO (1 + C(T)), using a monthly varying effective ozone temperature, T(sub E), derived from a temperature and ozone profile climatology. The correction is used to remove a seasonal difference caused by using a fixed temperature in each retrieval algorithm. The respective corrections C(T(sub E)) are C(sub Pandora) = 0.00333(T(sub E) - 225) and C(sub Dobson) = -0.0013(T(sub E) - 226.7) per degree K. After the applied corrections removed most of the seasonal retrieval dependence on ozone temperature, TCO agreement between the instruments was within 1% for clear-sky conditions. For clear-sky observations, both co-located instruments tracked the day-to-day variation in total column ozone amounts with a correlation of r(exp 2) = 0.97 and an average offset of 1.1 +/- 5.8 DU. In addition, the Pandora TCO data showed 0.3% annual average agreement with satellite overpass data from AURA/OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) and 1% annual average offset with Suomi-NPP/OMPS (Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership, the nadir viewing portion of the Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite).

Comparison of ozone retrievals from the Pandora spectrometer system and Dobson spectrophotometer in Boulder, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, J.; Evans, R.; Cede, A.; Abuhassan, N.; Petropavlovskikh, I.; McConville, G.

2015-08-01

A comparison of retrieved total column ozone (TCO) amounts between the Pandora #34 spectrometer system and the Dobson #061 spectrophotometer from direct-sun observations was performed on the roof of the Boulder, Colorado, NOAA building. This paper, part of an ongoing study, covers a 1-year period starting on 17 December 2013. Both the standard Dobson and Pandora TCO retrievals required a correction, TCOcorr = TCO (1 + C(T)), using a monthly varying effective ozone temperature, TE, derived from a temperature and ozone profile climatology. The correction is used to remove a seasonal difference caused by using a fixed temperature in each retrieval algorithm. The respective corrections C(TE) are CPandora = 0.00333(TE-225) and CDobson = -0.0013(TE-226.7) per degree K. After the applied corrections removed most of the seasonal retrieval dependence on ozone temperature, TCO agreement between the instruments was within 1 % for clear-sky conditions. For clear-sky observations, both co-located instruments tracked the day-to-day variation in total column ozone amounts with a correlation of r2 = 0.97 and an average offset of 1.1 ± 5.8 DU. In addition, the Pandora TCO data showed 0.3 % annual average agreement with satellite overpass data from AURA/OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) and 1 % annual average offset with Suomi-NPP/OMPS (Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership, the nadir viewing portion of the Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite).

Global energy and water cycle experiment (GEWEX) continental-scale international project (GCIP); reference data sets CD-ROM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rea, Alan; Cederstrand, Joel R.

1994-01-01

The data sets on this compact disc are a compilation of several geographic reference data sets of interest to the global-change research community. The data sets were chosen with input from the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) Data Committee and the GCIP Hydrometeorology and Atmospheric Subpanels. The data sets include: locations and periods of record for stream gages, reservoir gages, and meteorological stations; a 500-meter-resolution digital elevation model; grid-node locations for the Eta numerical weather-prediction model; and digital map data sets of geology, land use, streams, large reservoirs, average annual runoff, average annual precipitation, average annual temperature, average annual heating and cooling degree days, hydrologic units, and state and county boundaries. Also included are digital index maps for LANDSAT scenes, and for the U.S. Geological Survey 1:250,000, 1:100,000, and 1:24,000-scale map series. Most of the data sets cover the conterminous United States; the digital elevation model also includes part of southern Canada. The stream and reservoir gage and meteorological station files cover all states having area within the Mississippi River Basin plus that part of the Mississippi River Basin lying within Canada. Several data-base retrievals were processed by state, therefore many sites outside the Mississippi River Basin are included.

The role of temperature in the variability and extremes of electricity and gas demand in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, H. E.; Hoskins, B. J.; Scaife, A. A.

2016-11-01

The daily relationship of electricity and gas demand with temperature in Great Britain is analysed from 1975 to 2013 and 1996 to 2013 respectively. The annual mean and annual cycle amplitude of electricity demand exhibit low frequency variability. This low frequency variability is thought to be predominantly driven by socio-economic changes rather than temperature variation. Once this variability is removed, both daily electricity and gas demand have a strong anti-correlation with temperature (r elec = -0.90 , r gas = -0.94). However these correlations are inflated by the changing demand-temperature relationship during spring and autumn. Once the annual cycles of temperature and demand are removed, the correlations are {r}{{elec}}=-0.60 and {r}{{gas}}=-0.83. Winter then has the strongest demand-temperature relationship, during which a 1 °C reduction in daily temperature typically gives a ˜1% increase in daily electricity demand and a 3%-4% increase in gas demand. Extreme demand periods are assessed using detrended daily temperature observations from 1772. The 1 in 20 year peak day electricity and gas demand estimates are, respectively, 15% (range 14%-16%) and 46% (range 44%-49%) above their average winter day demand during the last decade. The risk of demand exceeding recent extreme events, such as during the winter of 2009/2010, is also quantified.

Effects of increased wind power generation on Mid-Norway's energy balance under climate change: A market based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, Baptiste; Martino, Sara; Tofte, Lena; Hingray, Benoit; Mo, Birger; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

Thanks to its huge water storage capacity, Norway has an excess of energy generation at annual scale, although significant regional disparity exists. On average, the Mid-Norway region has an energy deficit and needs to import more electricity than it exports. We show that this energy deficit can be reduced with an increase in wind generation and transmission line capacity, even in future climate scenarios where both mean annual temperature and precipitation are changed. For the considered scenarios, the deficit observed in winter disappears, i.e. when electricity consumption and prices are high. At the annual scale, the deficit behavior depends more on future changes in precipitation. Another consequence of changes in wind production and transmission capacity is the modification of electricity exchanges with neighboring regions which are also modified both in terms of average, variability and seasonality. Keywords: Variable renewable energy, Wind, Hydro, Energy balance, Energy market

Seventeen-year trends in spring and autumn phenophases of Betula pubescens in a boreal environment.

PubMed

Poikolainen, Jarmo; Tolvanen, Anne; Karhu, Jouni; Kubin, Eero

2016-08-01

Trends in the timing of spring and autumn phenophases of Betula pubescens were investigated in the southern, middle, and northern boreal zones in Finland. The field observations were carried out at 21 sites in the Finnish National Phenological Network in 1997-2013. The effective temperature sum of the thermal growth period, i.e. the sum of the positive differences between diurnal mean temperatures and 5 °C (ETS1), increased annually on average by 6-7 degree day units. Timing of bud burst remained constant in the southern and middle boreal zones but advanced annually by 0.5 day in the northern boreal zone. The effective temperature sum at bud burst (ETS2) showed no trend in the southern and middle boreal zones, whereas ETS2 increased on average from 20-30 to 50 degree day units in the northern boreal zone, almost to the same level as in the other zones. Increase in ETS2 indicates that the trees did not start their growth in very early spring despite warmer spring temperatures. The timing of leaf colouring and leaf fall remained almost constant in the southern boreal zones, whereas these advanced annually by 0.3 and 0.6 day in the middle boreal zone and by 0.6 and 0.4 day in the northern boreal zone, respectively. The duration of the growth period remained constant in all boreal zones. The results indicate high buffering capacity of B. pubescens against temperature changes. The study also shows the importance of the duration of phenological studies: some trends in spring phenophases had levelled out, while new trends in autumn phases had emerged after earlier studies in the same network for a shorter observation period.

Relative importance of climate changes at different time scales on net primary productivity-a case study of the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China.

PubMed

Liu, Huiyu; Zhang, Mingyang; Lin, Zhenshan

2017-10-05

Climate changes are considered to significantly impact net primary productivity (NPP). However, there are few studies on how climate changes at multiple time scales impact NPP. With MODIS NPP product and station-based observations of sunshine duration, annual average temperature and annual precipitation, impacts of climate changes at different time scales on annual NPP, have been studied with EEMD (ensemble empirical mode decomposition) method in the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China, during 2000-2013. Moreover, with partial least squares regression (PLSR) model, the relative importance of climatic variables for annual NPP has been explored. The results show that (1) only at quasi 3-year time scale do sunshine duration and temperature have significantly positive relations with NPP. (2) Annual precipitation has no significant relation to NPP by direct comparison, but significantly positive relation at 5-year time scale, which is because 5-year time scale is not the dominant scale of precipitation; (3) the changes of NPP may be dominated by inter-annual variabilities. (4) Multiple time scales analysis will greatly improve the performance of PLSR model for estimating NPP. The variable importance in projection (VIP) scores of sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale, and precipitation at quasi 5-year time scale are greater than 0.8, indicating important for NPP during 2000-2013. However, sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale are much more important. Our results underscore the importance of multiple time scales analysis for revealing the relations of NPP to changing climate.

Comparison of ozone retrievals from the Pandora spectrometer system and Dobson spectrophotometer in Boulder, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, J.; Evans, R.; Cede, A.; Abuhassan, N.; Petropavlovskikh, I.; McConville, G.

2015-03-01

A comparison of retrieved total column ozone amounts TCO between the Pandora #34 spectrometer system and the Dobson #061 spectrophotometer from direct-sun observations was performed on the roof of the Boulder, Colorado NOAA building. This paper, part of an ongoing study, covers a one-year period starting on 17 December 2013. Both the standard Dobson and Pandora total column ozone TCO retrievals required a correction TCOcorr = TCO (1+C(T)) using the effective climatology derived ozone temperature T to remove a seasonal difference caused by using a fixed temperature in each retrieval algorithm. The respective corrections C(T) are CPandora = 0.00333(T-225) and CDobson = -0.0013 (T-226.7) per K. After the applied corrections removed the seasonal retrieval dependence on ozone temperature, TCO agreement between the instruments was within 1% for clear-sky conditions. For clear-sky observations, both co-located instruments tracked the day-to-day variation in total column ozone amounts with a correlation of r2 = 0.97 and an average offset of 1.1 ± 5.8 DU. In addition, the Pandora data showed 0.3% annual average agreement with satellite overpass data from AURA/OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) and 1% annual average offset with Suomi-NPP/OMPS (Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership, the nadir viewing portion of the Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite).

Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China.

PubMed

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei

2015-01-01

The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth's hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River.

Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Xue, Jie

2015-01-01

The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth’s hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River. PMID:26244113

Stream-temperature patterns of the Muddy Creek basin, Anne Arundel County, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pluhowski, E.J.

1981-01-01

Using a water-balance equation based on a 4.25-year gaging-station record on North Fork Muddy Creek, the following mean annual values were obtained for the Muddy Creek basin: precipitation, 49.0 inches; evapotranspiration, 28.0 inches; runoff, 18.5 inches; and underflow, 2.5 inches. Average freshwater outflow from the Muddy Creek basin to the Rhode River estuary was 12.2 cfs during the period October 1, 1971, to December 31, 1975. Harmonic equations were used to describe seasonal maximum and minimum stream-temperature patterns at 12 sites in the basin. These equations were fitted to continuous water-temperature data obtained periodically at each site between November 1970 and June 1978. The harmonic equations explain at least 78 percent of the variance in maximum stream temperatures and 81 percent of the variance in minimum temperatures. Standard errors of estimate averaged 2.3C (Celsius) for daily maximum water temperatures and 2.1C for daily minimum temperatures. Mean annual water temperatures developed for a 5.4-year base period ranged from 11.9C at Muddy Creek to 13.1C at Many Fork Branch. The largest variations in stream temperatures were detected at thermograph sites below ponded reaches and where forest coverage was sparse or missing. At most sites the largest variations in daily water temperatures were recorded in April whereas the smallest were in September and October. The low thermal inertia of streams in the Muddy Creek basin tends to amplify the impact of surface energy-exchange processes on short-period stream-temperature patterns. Thus, in response to meteorologic events, wide ranging stream-temperature perturbations of as much as 6C have been documented in the basin. (USGS)

Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2016-04-01

In the current context of global change, mountainous areas constitute singular locations in which these changes can be traced. Early detection of significant shifts of snow state variables in semiarid regions can help assess climate variability impacts and future snow dynamics in northern latitudes. The Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, is a representative example of snow areas in Mediterranean-climate regions and both monitoring and modelling efforts have been performed to assess this variability and its significant scales. This work presents a decadal trend analysis throughout the 50-yr period 1960-2010 performed on some snow-related variables over Sierra Nevada, in Spain, which is included in the global climate change observatories network around the world. The study area comprises 4583 km2 distributed throughout the five head basins influenced by these mountains, with altitude values ranging from 140 to 3479 m.a.s.l., just 40 km from the Mediterranean coastline. Meteorological variables obtained from 44 weather stations from the National Meteorological Agency were studied and further used as input to the distributed hydrological model WiMMed (Polo et al., 2010), operational at the study area, to obtain selected snow variables. Decadal trends were obtained, together with their statistical significance, over the following variables, averaged over the whole study area: (1) annual precipitation; (2) annual snowfall; annual (3) mean, (4) maximum and (5) minimum daily temperature; annual (6) mean and (7) maximum daily fraction of snow covered areas; (8) annual number of days with snow cover; (9) mean and (10) maximum daily snow water equivalent; (11) annual number of extreme precipitation events; and (12) mean intensity of the annual extreme precipitation events. These variables were also studied over each of the five regions associated to each basin in the range. Globally decreasing decadal trends were obtained for all the meteorological variables, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

Proceedings of the Annual Conference on Manual Control (18th) Held at Dayton, Ohio on 8-10 June 1982

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

frequency of the disturbance the probability to cross the borderline becomes larger, and corrective action (moving average value further away-,_. from the...pupillometer. The prototypical data was the average of 10 records from 5 normal subjects who showed similar responses. The different amplitudes of light...following orders touch, position, temperature , and vain. Our subjects sometimes reported numbness in the fingertips, dulled pinprick sensations

Twenty Years of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Imagery around Australia: Inter-Annual and Annual Variability

PubMed Central

Foster, Scott D.; Griffin, David A.; Dunstan, Piers K.

2014-01-01

The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale. PMID:24988444

Estimation of evaporation from open water - A review of selected studies, summary of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data collection and methods, and evaluation of two methods for estimation of evaporation from five reservoirs in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.

2012-01-01

Organizations responsible for the management of water resources, such as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), are tasked with estimation of evaporation for water-budgeting and planning purposes. The USACE has historically used Class A pan evaporation data (pan data) to estimate evaporation from reservoirs but many USACE Districts have been experimenting with other techniques for an alternative to collecting pan data. The energy-budget method generally is considered the preferred method for accurate estimation of open-water evaporation from lakes and reservoirs. Complex equations to estimate evaporation, such as the Penman, DeBruin-Keijman, and Priestley-Taylor, perform well when compared with energy-budget method estimates when all of the important energy terms are included in the equations and ideal data are collected. However, sometimes nonideal data are collected and energy terms, such as the change in the amount of stored energy and advected energy, are not included in the equations. When this is done, the corresponding errors in evaporation estimates are not quantifiable. Much simpler methods, such as the Hamon method and a method developed by the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB) (renamed the National Weather Service in 1970), have been shown to provide reasonable estimates of evaporation when compared to energy-budget method estimates. Data requirements for the Hamon and USWB methods are minimal and sometimes perform well with remotely collected data. The Hamon method requires average daily air temperature, and the USWB method requires daily averages of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. Estimates of annual lake evaporation from pan data are frequently within 20 percent of energy-budget method estimates. Results of evaporation estimates from the Hamon method and the USWB method were compared against historical pan data at five selected reservoirs in Texas (Benbrook Lake, Canyon Lake, Granger Lake, Hords Creek Lake, and Sam Rayburn Lake) to evaluate their performance and to develop coefficients to minimize bias for the purpose of estimating reservoir evaporation with accuracies similar to estimates of evaporation obtained from pan data. The modified Hamon method estimates of reservoir evaporation were similar to estimates of reservoir evaporation from pan data for daily, monthly, and annual time periods. The modified Hamon method estimates of annual reservoir evaporation were always within 20 percent of annual reservoir evaporation from pan data. Unmodified and modified USWB method estimates of annual reservoir evaporation were within 20 percent of annual reservoir evaporation from pan data for about 91 percent of the years compared. Average daily differences between modified USWB method estimates and estimates from pan data as a percentage of the average amount of daily evaporation from pan data were within 20 percent for 98 percent of the months. Without any modification to the USWB method, average daily differences as a percentage of the average amount of daily evaporation from pan data were within 20 percent for 73 percent of the months. Use of the unmodified USWB method is appealing because it means estimates of average daily reservoir evaporation can be made from air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data collected from remote weather stations without the need to develop site-specific coefficients from historical pan data. Site-specific coefficients would need to be developed for the modified version of the Hamon method.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Detection of spatio-temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation based on long-term meteorological station observations over Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Min; Kang, Shichang; Wu, Hao; Yuan, Xu

2018-05-01

As abundant distribution of glaciers and snow, the Tianshan Mountains are highly vulnerable to changes in climate. Based on meteorological station records during 1960-2016, we detected the variations of air temperature and precipitation by using non-parametric method in the different sub-regions and different elevations of the Tianshan Mountains. The mutations of climate were investigated by Mann-Kendall abrupt change test in the sub-regions. The periodicity is examined by wavelet analysis employing a chi-square test and detecting significant time sections. The results show that the Tianshan Mountains experienced an overall rapid warming and wetting during study period, with average warming rate of 0.32 °C/10a and wet rate of 5.82 mm/10a, respectively. The annual and seasonal spatial variation of temperature showed different scales in different regions. The annual precipitation showed non-significant upward trend in 20 stations, and 6 stations showed a significant upward trend. The temperatures in the East Tianshan increased most rapidly at rates of 0.41 °C/10a. The increasing magnitudes of annual precipitation were highest in the Boertala Vally (8.07 mm/10a) and lowest in the East Tianshan (2.64 mm/10a). The greatest and weakest warming was below 500 m (0.42 °C/10a) and elevation of 1000-1500 m (0.23 °C/10a), respectively. The increasing magnitudes of annual precipitation were highest in the elevation of 1500 m-2000 m (9.22 mm/10a) and lowest in the elevation of below 500 m (3.45 mm/10a). The mutations of annual air temperature and precipitation occurred in 1995 and 1990, respectively. The large atmospheric circulation influenced on the mutations of climate. The significant periods of air temperature were 2.4-4.1 years, and annual precipitation was 2.5-7.4 years. Elevation dependency of temperature trend magnitude was not evidently in the Tianshan Mountains. The annual precipitation wetting trend was amplified with elevation in summer and autumn. The strong elevation dependence of precipitation increasing trend appeared in summer.

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

PubMed

Kuussaari, Mikko; Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-07-27

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark-release-recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79-91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. © 2016 The Author(s).

Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Lorenz, David J

2016-01-01

Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

2013-04-01

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Evaluation of 20-min and Annual Radiation Budget Components and Cloudiness in a Mountainous Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, E.

2007-05-01

Logan, Utah (USA) is among cities located in the mountainous valley in the western portion of Rocky Mountains in North America. It is the county seat of Cache Valley, a metropolitan area with a population of about 100,000. The valley had the polluted air in the USA during January 2004. To evaluate the daily and annual radiation budget and cloudiness in this mountainous valley, we set up a radiation station in the middle of the valley to measure the 20- min radiation budget components namely: incoming (Rso) and outgoing (Rso) solar or shortwave radiation, using to CM21 Kipp and Zonen (one inverted) and incoming (Rli) (or atmospheric) and outgoing (Rlo) or terrestrial) longwave radiation using two CG1 Kipp and Zonen Pyrgeometers (one inverted) during the year of 2003. All pyranometers and Pyrgeometers were ventilated with four CV2 Kipp and Zonen ventilation systems throughout the year to prevent deposition of dew, frost and snow, which otherwise would disturb the measurements. We also measured the 2-m air temperature and relative humidity along with surface temperature. All measurements were taken every 2 s, averaged to 20 min, continuously throughout the year 2000. A Met One heated rain gauge measured precipitation. Comparison of the annual radiation budget components indicates that about 25% of the annual Rsi (5848.6 MJ/ (squared m-y)) was reflected back to sky as Rso. Rli and Rlo amounted to 9968.7 and 13303.5 MJ/ (squared m-y)), respectively. This yielded about 1364.9 MJ/ (squared m- y)) available energy (Rn). Having the 2-m air temperature and moisture data and comparison between the theoretical and the measured longwave radiation, we evaluated the 20-m cloudy conditions throughout the year of 2003. The average cloud base height was 587 m (ranged from zero for foggy conditions to about 3000 m). Annual cloudiness contributed about 139.1 MJ/ (squared m-y)) more energy in this valley.

Estimating the Mean Annual Surface Air Temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for Sunspot Cycle 24, the Current Ongoing Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

As noted by Gray et al., Sir William Herschel was the first to suggest a possible close connection between the Sun and the Earth’s climate. The Sun, being the source of energy that impacts and drives the Earth’s climate system, displays a variety of changes over both short and long term time scales, the most obvious examples being the somewhat regular waxing and waning of sunspots with time (i.e., the sunspot cycle (SC)), first described by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, a German apothecary and amateur astronomer who observed the Sun from Dessau, Germany, and the now well established variation of the Sun’s irradiance over the SC. Other factors related to the SC have been linked to changes in climate as well. Some of these other factors include the role of cosmic rays and the solar wind (i.e., the geomagnetic cycle) on climate, as well as the apparent close association between trends in global and northern hemispheric temperature and the length of the SC, although some investigators have described the inferred association between climate and, in particular, SC length as now being weak. More recently, Solheim et al. have reported on the relation between SC length and the average temperature in the same and immediately following SC for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. They noted that while they found no significant trend (correlation) between SC length and the average temperature when measured for the same cycle, in contrast, they found a significant negative trend when SC length was compared with the following cycle’s average temperature. From this observation, they suggested that average northern hemispheric temperature during the present ongoing SC (SC24) will be lower by about 0.9 °C than was seen in SC23 (spanning 1996–2007, based on yearly averages of sunspot number (SSN), and onset for SC24 occurring in 2008). The purpose of this Technical Publication (TP) is to examine the annual variations of the Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT) and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI) in relation to SSN and the SC in order to determine their likely values during SC24. Hence, it may provide insight as to whether solar forcing of global temperature is now lessening as a contributor to global warming, thereby indicating a possible cooling in the near term immediate future that potentially could ameliorate the effect of increased anthropogenic warming.

Concentrations and annual fluxes for selected water-quality constituents from the USGS National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) 1996-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Valerie J.; Hooper, Richard P.; Aulenbach, Brent T.; Janet, Mary

2001-01-01

This report contains concentrations and annual mass fluxes (loadings) for a broad range of water-quality constituents measured during 1996-2000 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN). During this period, NASQAN operated a network of 40-42 stations in four of the largest river basins of the USA: the Colorado, the Columbia, the Mississippi (including the Missouri and Ohio), and the Rio Grande. The report contains surface-water quality data, streamflow data, field measurements (e.g. water temperature and pH), sediment-chemistry data, and quality-assurance data; interpretive products include annual and average loads, regression parameters for models used to estimate loads, sub-basin yield maps, maps depicting percent detections for censored constituents, and diagrams depicting flow-weighted average concentrations. Where possible, a regression model relating concentration to discharge and season was used for flux estimation. The interpretive context provided by annual loads includes identifying source and sink areas for constituents and estimating the loadings to receiving waters, such as reservoirs or the ocean.

Development of an effective and potentially scalable weather generator for temperature and growing degree days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Elham; Friederichs, Petra; Keller, Jan; Hense, Andreas

2016-05-01

The main purpose of this study is to develop an easy-to-use weather generator (WG) for the downscaling of gridded data to point measurements at regional scale. The WG is applied to daily averaged temperatures and annual growing degree days (GDD) of wheat. This particular choice of variables is motivated by future investigations on temperature impacts as the most important climate variable for wheat cultivation under irrigation in Iran. The proposed statistical downscaling relates large-scale ERA-40 reanalysis to local daily temperature and annual GDD. Long-term local observations in Iran are used at 16 synoptic stations from 1961 to 2001, which is the common period with ERA-40 data. We perform downscaling using two approaches: the first is a linear regression model that uses the ERA-40 fingerprints (FP) defined by the squared correlation with local variability, and the second employs a linear multiple regression (MR) analysis to relate the large-scale information at the neighboring grid points to the station data. Extending the usual downscaling, we implement a WG providing uncertainty information and realizations of the local temperatures and GDD by adding a Gaussian random noise. ERA-40 reanalysis well represents the local daily temperature as well as the annual GDD variability. For 2-m temperature, the FPs are more localized during the warm compared with the cold season. While MR is slightly superior for daily temperature time series, FP seems to perform best for annual GDD. We further assess the quality of the WGs applying probabilistic verification scores like the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the respective skill score. They clearly demonstrate the superiority of WGs compared with a deterministic downscaling.

Assessing the Urban Heat Island Effect Across Biomes in the Continental USA Using Landsat and MODIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc L.; Bounoua, L.; Zhang, Ping; Wolfe, Robert

2011-01-01

Impervious surface area (ISA) from the Landsat TM and land surface temperature (LST) from MODIS averaged over three annual cycles (2003-2005) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the urban heat island (UHI) skin temperature amplitude and its relationship to development intensity, size, and ecological setting for 38 of the most populous cities in the continental United States. Development intensity zones based on %ISA are defined across urban gradients and used to stratify sampling of LST and NDVI. We find that ecological context significantly influences the amplitude of summer daytime UHI (urban - rural temperature difference) with the largest 8 C (average) for cities built in mixed forest biomes. For all cities ISA is the primary driver for increase in temperature explaining 70% of the total variance. Annually, urban areas are warmer than the non-urban fringe by 2.9 C, except in biomes with arid and semiarid climates. The average amplitude of the UHI is asymmetric with a 4.3 C difference in summer and 1.3 C in winter. In desert environments, UHI's point to a possible heat sink effect. Results show that the urban heat island amplitude increases with city size and is seasonally asymmetric for a large number of cities across most biomes. The implications are that for urban areas developed within forested ecosystems the summertime UHI can be quite high relative to the wintertime UHI suggesting that the residential energy consumption required for summer cooling is likely to increase with urban growth within those biomes.

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan

2017-03-01

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by midcentury and -35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at midcentury and -55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.