Mars Secular Obliquity Change Due to Water Ice Caps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubincam, David P.

1998-01-01

Mars may have substantially changed its average axial tilt over geologic time due to the waxing and waning of water ice caps. Depending upon Mars' climate and internal structure, the average obliquity could have increased or decreased through climate friction by tens of degrees. A decrease could account for the apparent youthfulness of the polar layered terrain. Alternatively, Mars' average obliquity may have changed until it became "stuck" at its present value of 24.4 deg.

Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

Treesearch

Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo

2016-01-01

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

PubMed

Thackeray, Stephen J; Henrys, Peter A; Hemming, Deborah; Bell, James R; Botham, Marc S; Burthe, Sarah; Helaouet, Pierre; Johns, David G; Jones, Ian D; Leech, David I; Mackay, Eleanor B; Massimino, Dario; Atkinson, Sian; Bacon, Philip J; Brereton, Tom M; Carvalho, Laurence; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Duck, Callan; Edwards, Martin; Elliott, J Malcolm; Hall, Stephen J G; Harrington, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Høye, Toke T; Kruuk, Loeske E B; Pemberton, Josephine M; Sparks, Tim H; Thompson, Paul M; White, Ian; Winfield, Ian J; Wanless, Sarah

2016-07-14

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

Calculating net primary productivity of forest ecosystem with G4M model: case study on South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, S.; Forsell, N.; Kindermann, G.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of forest is highlighted as a stepping stone for mitigating climate change. Especially rapidly urbanizing countries which have high carbon dioxide emission have large interest in calculating forest NPP under climate change. Also maximizing carbon sequestration in forest sector has became a global goal to minimize the impacts of climate change. Therefore, the objective of this research is estimating carbon stock change under the different climate change scenarios by using G4M (Global Forestry Model) model in South Korea. We analyzed four climate change scenarios in different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). In this study we used higher resolution data (1kmx1km) to produce precise estimation on NPP from regionalized four climate change scenarios in G4M model. Finally, we set up other environmental variables for G4M such as water holding capacity, soil type and elevation. As a result of this study, temperature showed significant trend during 2011 to 2100. Average annual temperature increased more than 5℃ in RCP 8.5 scenario while 1℃ increased in RCP 2.6 scenario. Each standard deviation of the annual average temperature showed similar trend. Average annual precipitation showed similarity within four scenarios. However the standard deviation of average annual precipitation is higher in RCP8.5 scenario which indicates the ranges of precipitation is wider in RCP8.5 scenario. These results present that climate indicators such as temperature and precipitation have uncertainties in climate change scenarios. NPP has changed from 5-13tC/ha/year in RCP2.6 scenario to 9-21 tC/ha/year in RCP8.5 scenario in 2100. In addition the spatial distribution of NPP presented different trend among the scenarios. In conclusion we calculated differences in temperature and precipitation and NPP change in different climate change scenarios. This study can be applied for maximizing carbon seqestration of vegetation.

Does Change in the Arctic Sea Ice Indicate Climate Change? A Lesson Using Geospatial Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bock, Judith K.

2011-01-01

The Arctic sea ice has not since melted to the 2007 extent, but annual summer melt extents do continue to be less than the decadal average. Climate fluctuations are well documented by geologic records. Averages are usually based on a minimum of 10 years of averaged data. It is typical for fluctuations to occur from year to year and season to…

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

2015-01-01

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachatryan, S.

2009-05-01

Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-12-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2016-05-01

A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Hal G.; Walker, James C. G.; Kuhn, William R.

1988-01-01

The response of the coupled climate-geochemical system to changes in paleography is examined in terms of the biogeochemical carbon cycle. The simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model combined with a geochemical carbon cycle model, which was developed to study climate changes, is described. The effects of latitudinal distributions of the continents on the carbon cycle are investigated, and the global silicate weathering rate as a function of latitude is measured. It is observed that a concentration of land area at high altitudes results in a high CO2 partial pressure and a high global average temperature, and for land at low latitudes a cold globe and ice are detected. It is noted that the CO2 greenhouse feedback effect is potentially strong and has a stabilizing effect on the climate system.

A Possible Strategy for the Use of Solar Climate Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, T. P.; Russotto, R. D.; Kravitz, B.

2016-12-01

The Paris accord signals an international effort to hold global temperature change below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, raising the question of what role solar climate engineering (SCE) might play in meeting this objective. However, avoiding continuing, long-term application of SCE with an ever increasing magnitude requires an "exit strategy", i. e., a plan to phase out SCE by removing stabilizing and removing CO2. Here we present results from a series of climate model runs that combine both CO2 and SCE transient forcings over a 200-year period (2000 to 2200). Our results confirm past results that maintaining both global surface air temperature (TA) and precipitation (P) at baseline levels is not feasible. They also demonstrate a quasi-linear relationship between changes in SCE and changes in P. Zonally-averaged changes in TA show, as expected, polar amplification of warming, but that enhancement scales uniformly with the change in global TA. We draw several conclusions from our results: (1) There are plausible scenarios in which SCE can be part of an integrated strategy to meet the temperature goals of the Paris accord. (2) Applying transient forcings can be used to maintain some, but not all, globally-averaged climate system variables (such as TA or P) at a prescribed baseline level. That globally-averaged stability, however, is achieved by averaging over changes in spatial distributions. These spatial changes create difficult issues regarding prediction of regional climate changes due to SCE and potential impacts on regional societies. (3) Our inability to predict interannual climate variability on the annual-to-decadal time scale suggests that it may take a decade or more to provide reliable detection and attribution of the global climate impacts of SCE following its inception (the so-called time of emergence). Furthermore, it will take much longer to determine regional impacts.

Phenotypic variation and differentiated gene expression of Australian plants in response to declining rainfall

PubMed Central

Fowler, William; Lim, Sim Lin; Enright, Neal; He, Tianhua

2016-01-01

Declining rainfall is projected to have negative impacts on the demographic performance of plant species. Little is known about the adaptive capacity of species to respond to drying climates, and whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change. In fire-prone ecosystems, episodic recruitment of perennial plant species in the first year post-fire imposes a specific selection environment, offering a unique opportunity to quantify the scope for adaptive response to climate change. We examined the growth of seedlings of four fire-killed species under control and drought conditions for seeds from populations established in years following fire receiving average-to-above-average winter rainfall, or well-below-average winter rainfall. We show that offspring of plants that had established under drought had more efficient water uptake, and/or stored more water per unit biomass, or developed denser leaves, and all maintained higher survival in simulated drought than did offspring of plants established in average annual rainfall years. Adaptive phenotypic responses were not consistent across all traits and species, while plants that had established under severe drought or established in years with average-to-above-average rainfall had an overall different physiological response when growing either with or without water constraints. Seedlings descended from plants established under severe drought also had elevated gene expression in key pathways relating to stress response. Our results demonstrate the capacity for rapid adaptation to climate change through phenotypic variation and regulation of gene expression. However, effective and rapid adaptation to climate change may vary among species depending on their capacity to maintain robust populations under multiple stresses. PMID:28018654

Phenotypic variation and differentiated gene expression of Australian plants in response to declining rainfall.

PubMed

D'Agui, Haylee; Fowler, William; Lim, Sim Lin; Enright, Neal; He, Tianhua

2016-11-01

Declining rainfall is projected to have negative impacts on the demographic performance of plant species. Little is known about the adaptive capacity of species to respond to drying climates, and whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change. In fire-prone ecosystems, episodic recruitment of perennial plant species in the first year post-fire imposes a specific selection environment, offering a unique opportunity to quantify the scope for adaptive response to climate change. We examined the growth of seedlings of four fire-killed species under control and drought conditions for seeds from populations established in years following fire receiving average-to-above-average winter rainfall, or well-below-average winter rainfall. We show that offspring of plants that had established under drought had more efficient water uptake, and/or stored more water per unit biomass, or developed denser leaves, and all maintained higher survival in simulated drought than did offspring of plants established in average annual rainfall years. Adaptive phenotypic responses were not consistent across all traits and species, while plants that had established under severe drought or established in years with average-to-above-average rainfall had an overall different physiological response when growing either with or without water constraints. Seedlings descended from plants established under severe drought also had elevated gene expression in key pathways relating to stress response. Our results demonstrate the capacity for rapid adaptation to climate change through phenotypic variation and regulation of gene expression. However, effective and rapid adaptation to climate change may vary among species depending on their capacity to maintain robust populations under multiple stresses.

Assessing climate change impacts on soil salinity development with proximal and satellite sensors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in climate patterns have dramatically influenced some agricultural areas. Examples include the historic 5-year drought in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the 20-year above average annual rainfall in the Red River Valley (RRV) of the Midwestern USA. Climate change may have impacted ...

Climate Change and Cities in Africa: Current Dilemmas and Future Challenges

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

naturally emanates from Earth’s atmosphere .8 One piece of scientific evidence of climate change has been an increase in the average global temperature...is just one element of climate change . Atmospheric temperature interacts with other natural systems, such as the oceanic system, in complex ways with...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: How will climate change affect people living in African cities? The answer to this complex question has two interrelated

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-01-01

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-02-03

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

Potential impacts of climate change on neotropical migrants: management implications

Treesearch

Jeff T. Price; Terry L. Root

2005-01-01

The world is warming. Over the last 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.7°C. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects a further increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.4° - 5.8° C by the year 2100. How will climate change affect Neotropical migrants? Models of changes...

New estimates of changes in snow cover over Russia in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N.; Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.

2017-12-01

Snow covers plays critical roles in the energy and water balance of the Earth through its unique physical properties (high reflectivity and low thermal conductivity) and water storage. The main objective of this research is to monitoring snow cover change in Russia. The estimates of changes of major snow characteristics (snow cover duration, maximum winter snow depth, snow water equivalent) are described. Apart from the description of long-term averages of snow characteristics, the estimates of their change that are averaged over quasi-homogeneous climatic regions are derived and regional differences in the change of snow characteristics are studied. We used in our study daily snow observations for 820 Russian meteorological station from 1966 to 2017. All of these meteorological stations are of unprotected type. The water equivalent is analyzed from snow course survey data at 958 meteorological stations from 1966 to 2017. The time series are prepared by RIHMI-WDC. Regional analysis of snow cover data was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. The area-averaging technique using station values converted to anomalies with respect to a common reference period (in this study, 1981-2010). Anomalies were arithmetically averaged first within 1°N x 2°E grid cells and thereafter by a weighted average value derived over the quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. This approach provides a more uniform spatial field for averaging. By using a denser network of meteorological stations, bringing into consideration snow course data and, we managed to specify changes in all observed major snow characteristics and to obtain estimates generalized for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. The detected changes in the dates of the establishment and disappearance of the snow cover.

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

Climate Variation at Flagstaff, Arizona - 1950 to 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, Richard

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION Much scientific research demonstrates the existence of recent climate variation, particularly global warming. Climate prediction models forecast that climate will change; it will become warmer, droughts will increase in number and severity, and extreme climate events will recur often?desiccating aridity, extremely wet, unusually warm, or even frigid at times. However, the global models apply to average conditions in large grids approximately 150 miles on an edge (Thorpe, 2005), and how or whether specific areas within a grid are affected is unclear. Flagstaff's climate is mentioned in the context of global change, but information is lacking on the amount and trend of changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature. The purpose of this report is to understand what may be happening to Flagstaff's climate by reviewing local climate history. Flagstaff is in north-central Arizona south of San Francisco Mountain, which reaches 12,633 feet, the highest in Arizona (fig. 1). At 6,900 feet, surrounded by ponderosa pine forest, Flagstaff enjoys a four-season climate; winter-daytime temperatures are cool, averaging 45 degrees (Fahrenheit). Summer-daytime temperatures are comfortable, averaging 80 degrees, which is pleasant compared with nearby low-elevation deserts. Flagstaff?s precipitation averages 22-inches per year with a range of 9 to 39 inches. Snowfall occurs each season, averaging 97 inches annually. This report, written for the non-technical reader, interprets climate variation at Flagstaff as observed at the National Weather Service (NWS) station at Pulliam Field (or Airport), a first-order weather station staffed by meteorologists (Staudenmaier and others, 2007). The station is on a flat-topped ridge surrounded by forest 5-miles south of Flagstaff at an elevation of 7,003 feet. Data used in this analysis are daily measurements of precipitation (including snowfall) and temperature (maximum and minimum) covering the period from 1950, when the station began operation, through spring 2007. Conversations with Byron Peterson and Michael Staudenmaier of the NWS helped us understand the difficulties of collecting consistent weather data, operation of the station, and Flagstaff's climate. Weather is the daily or even instantaneous state of temperature and precipitation. Climate is the average or accumulation of these parameters over longer time scales such as a week, month, or year. Seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) and annual averages of temperature and accumulated precipitation describe the temporal variation of Flagstaff's climate, which is shown graphically with time series (figs. 2, 4, 6, 8-15). These plots show precipitation or temperature on the ordinate plotted against time on the abscissa, which is a year for annually repeating data or the year of a particular season. The plots reveal changing patterns of precipitation and temperature related to droughts, wet episodes, and rising temperatures.

Community-level phenological response to climate change

PubMed Central

Ovaskainen, Otso; Skorokhodova, Svetlana; Yakovleva, Marina; Sukhov, Alexander; Kutenkov, Anatoliy; Kutenkova, Nadezhda; Shcherbakov, Anatoliy; Meyke, Evegeniy; Delgado, Maria del Mar

2013-01-01

Climate change may disrupt interspecies phenological synchrony, with adverse consequences to ecosystem functioning. We present here a 40-y-long time series on 10,425 dates that were systematically collected in a single Russian locality for 97 plant, 78 bird, 10 herptile, 19 insect, and 9 fungal phenological events, as well as for 77 climatic events related to temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, and frost. We show that species are shifting their phenologies at dissimilar rates, partly because they respond to different climatic factors, which in turn are shifting at dissimilar rates. Plants have advanced their spring phenology even faster than average temperature has increased, whereas migratory birds have shown more divergent responses and shifted, on average, less than plants. Phenological events of birds and insects were mainly triggered by climate cues (variation in temperature and snow and ice cover) occurring over the course of short periods, whereas many plants, herptiles, and fungi were affected by long-term climatic averages. Year-to-year variation in plants, herptiles, and insects showed a high degree of synchrony, whereas the phenological timing of fungi did not correlate with any other taxonomic group. In many cases, species that are synchronous in their year-to-year dynamics have also shifted in congruence, suggesting that climate change may have disrupted phenological synchrony less than has been previously assumed. Our results illustrate how a multidimensional change in the physical environment has translated into a community-level change in phenology. PMID:23901098

Assessing the impact of climate change on soil salinity development in agricultural areas using ground and satellite sensors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in climatic patterns have impacted some agricultural areas. Examples include the historic drought in California’s San Joaquin Valley (2011-2015) and the recent 18-year above average annual rainfall and snowfall in the Red River Valley of the Midwestern USA (1993-2011). Climate change has imp...

Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

2017-07-01

This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

Amplification and dampening of soil respiration by changes in temperature variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sierra, C.A.; Harmon, M.E.; Thomann, E.; Perakis, S.S.; Loescher, H.W.

2011-01-01

Accelerated release of carbon from soils is one of the most important feed backs related to anthropogenically induced climate change. Studies addressing the mechanisms for soil carbon release through organic matter decomposition have focused on the effect of changes in the average temperature, with little attention to changes in temperature vari-ability. Anthropogenic activities are likely to modify both the average state and the variability of the climatic system; therefore, the effects of future warming on decomposition should not only focus on trends in the average temperature, but also variability expressed as a change of the probability distribution of temperature.Using analytical and numerical analyses we tested common relationships between temperature and respiration and found that the variability of temperature plays an important role determining respiration rates of soil organic matter. Changes in temperature variability, without changes in the average temperature, can affect the amount of carbon released through respiration over the long term. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in the average and variance of temperature can either amplify or dampen there release of carbon through soil respiration as climate regimes change. The effects depend on the degree of convexity of the relationship between temperature and respiration and the magnitude of the change in temperature variance. A potential consequence of this effect of variability would be higher respiration in regions where both the mean and variance of temperature are expected to increase, such as in some low latitude regions; and lower amounts of respiration where the average temperature is expected to increase and the variance to decrease, such as in northern high latitudes.

Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Woo, Jung-Hun

2010-02-01

Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements and should be considered in developing control strategies for achieving air quality targets in the future.

Applying simple water-energy balance frameworks to predict the climate sensitivity of streamflow over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2012-08-01

The prediction of climate effects on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources is one of the major research questions in hydrology. Conceptual water-energy balance models can be used to gain a first order estimate of how long-term average streamflow is changing with a change in water and energy supply. A common framework for investigation of this question is based on the Budyko hypothesis, which links hydrological response to aridity. Recently, Renner et al. (2012) introduced the climate change impact hypothesis (CCUW), which is based on the assumption that the total efficiency of the catchment ecosystem to use the available water and energy for actual evapotranspiration remains constant even under climate changes. Here, we confront the climate sensitivity approaches (the Budyko approach of Roderick and Farquhar, 2011, and the CCUW) with data of more than 400 basins distributed over the continental United States. We first estimate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation using long-term average data of the period 1949 to 2003. This provides a hydro-climatic status of the respective basins as well as their expected proportional effect to changes in climate. Next, we test the ability of both approaches to predict climate impacts on streamflow by splitting the data into two periods. We (i) analyse the long-term average changes in hydro-climatology and (ii) derive a statistical classification of potential climate and basin change impacts based on the significance of observed changes in runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Then we (iii) use the different climate sensitivity methods to predict the change in streamflow given the observed changes in water and energy supply and (iv) evaluate the predictions by (v) using the statistical classification scheme and (vi) a conceptual approach to separate the impacts of changes in climate from basin characteristics change on streamflow. This allows us to evaluate the observed changes in streamflow as well as to assess the impact of basin changes on the validity of climate sensitivity approaches. The apparent increase of streamflow of the majority of basins in the US is dominated by an increase in precipitation. It is further evident that impacts of changes in basin characteristics appear simultaneously with climate changes. There are coherent spatial patterns with catchments where basin changes compensate for climatic changes being dominant in the western and central parts of the US. A hot spot of basin changes leading to excessive runoff is found within the US Midwest. The impact of basin changes on the prediction is large and can be twice as much as the observed change signal. Although the CCUW and the Budyko approach yield similar predictions for most basins, the data of water-limited basins support the Budyko framework rather than the CCUW approach, which is known to be invalid under limiting climatic conditions.

Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

PubMed

Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

2006-08-31

Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

Risk to a Changing Climate in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas, N. D.

2016-12-01

The issue of climate change has dominated the atmospheric sciences agenda in recent decades. The concern about an increase in climate related disasters, mainly in large population centers, has led to ask whether they are mainly due to changes in climate or in vulnerability.The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is an example of megalopolis under high climate risk, where floods, landslides, health problems, high air pollution events, socioeconomic droughts are becoming important environmental and social problems. As urbanization spreads and population increases exposure to natural hazards increases, and so the magnitude of risk to a changing climate and the negative impacts. Since the late nineteenth century, in the MCMA an average maximum temperature could be around 22°C, whereas today it is about 24.5ºC. That is, the increase in the average temperature in Mexico City is around 3°C in a hundred years. But there are areas where an increase in the average temperature is similar in only thirty years. The heating rate of the city can vary depending on the change in land use. Areas that conserve forested regions in the process of urbanization tend to warm less than areas where the transformation into concrete and cement is almost complete. Thus, the climate of the MCMA shows important changes mainly in relation to land use changes. Global warming and natural climate variability were also analyzed as possible forcing factors of the observed warming by comparing low frequency variations in local temperature and indices for natural forcing. The hydrological cycle of the MCMA has also changed with urbanization. The "bubble of hot air" over the urban area has more capacity to hold moisture now than before the UHI. However, the increased risk to floods, heat or drought appears to be related not only to more frequent intense climatic hazards induced by the urbanization effect. This process also induces increased vulnerability to a changing climate. The establishment of areas with trees, water parks or green infrastructure can recover some ecosystem services and therefore, reduce climate risk in cities, with co-benefits that costly infrastructure does not always provide. Contemplating the services of urban ecosystems in the management of cities would lead to lower impacts of climate change for residents of cities.

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of themore » inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.« less

Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demands and Its Resulting Consequences on Groundwater Using CMIP5 Models.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Mustafa; Abedi-Koupai, Jahangir; Heidarpour, Manouchehr

2018-04-15

In this study, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements on the regional cropping pattern were evaluated using two climate change scenarios and combinations of 20 GCM models. Different models including CROPWAT, MODFLOW, and statistical models were used to evaluate the climate change impacts. The results showed that in the future period (2017 to 2046) the temperature in all months of the year will increase at all stations. The average annual precipitation decline in Isfahan, Tiran, Flavarjan, and Lenj stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 18.6 and 27.6%, 15.2 and 18%, 22.5 and 31.5%, and 10.5 and 12.1%, respectively. The average increase in the evapotranspiration for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are about 2.5 and 4.1%, respectively. The irrigation water demands increases considerably and for some crops, on average 18%. Among the existing crops in the cropping pattern, barley, cumin, onion, wheat, and forage crops are more sensitive and their water demand will increase significantly. Results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on water resources consumption. By considering irrigation efficiency in the region, climate change impacts will result in about 35 to 50 million m 3 /year, over-extraction from the aquifer. This additional exploitation causes an extra drop of 0.4 to 0.8 m in groundwater table per year in the aquifer. Therefore, with regard to the critical condition of the aquifer, management and preventive measures to deal with climate change in the future is absolutely necessary. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

PubMed Central

Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). PMID:23349829

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Dye, Stephen R; Fernandes, Jose A; Frölicher, Thomas L; Pinnegar, John K; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W L

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

PubMed

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

The Parana paradox: can a model explain the decadal impacts of climate variability and land-cover change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Livino, A.; Briscoe, J.

2013-12-01

Since the 1970s, despite a decrease in rainfall, flow in the Parana river has increased. This paradox is explored using the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. If there were no change in land cover, the modeled runoff decreased from the 1970s to the 2000s by 11.8% (with 1970 land cover) or 18.8% (with 2008 land cover). When the model is run holding climate constant, the decadal average of the modeled runoff increased by 24.4% (with the 1970s climate) or by 33.6% (with 2000s climate). When the model is run allowing both the actual climate and land-cover changes, the model gives an increase in the decadal average of runoff by 8.5%. This agrees well with 10.5% increase in the actual stream flow as measured at Itaipu. There are three main conclusions from this work. First, the ED model is able to explain a major, paradoxical, reality in the Parana basin. Second, it is necessary to take into account both climate and land use changes when exploring past or future changes in river flows. Third, the ED model, now coupled with a regional climate model (i.e., EDBRAMS), is a sound basis for exploring likely changes in river flows in major South American rivers.

Changes in Managerial Decision on Pond Management to Adapt to Climate Anomalies in the Coastal Area of Pare-Pare Gulf, District of Pinrang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fattah, M. H.; Busaeri, S. R.; Kasnir, M.; Siswanto

2017-08-01

The climate anomaly was adapted through the adjustment of tiger shrimp stocking patterns and optimum use of locally endemic Phronima Suppa (PS) to suit the season. Thus, the batches period determined was adjusted to suit climate change dynamics, reducing the shrimp stocking density down to 10.000 - 15.000 per ha and applying PS so the shrimp became tolerant of any environmental stress and pathogen infection. The knowledge of adaptation to climate anomalies, a learning outcome of the field school, managed to increase the average production of tiger shrimp to 217 kg/ha with an average receipt of IDR 22.60 million/ha.

Demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous United States population during the 20(th) century.

PubMed

Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J; Humphries, Murray M

2012-01-01

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20(th) century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.

Demographic Amplification of Climate Change Experienced by the Contiguous United States Population during the 20th Century

PubMed Central

Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J.; Humphries, Murray M.

2012-01-01

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20th century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse. PMID:23115624

Constructing optimal ensemble projections for predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisimov, Oleg; Kokorev, Vasily

2013-04-01

Large uncertainties in climate impact modelling are associated with the forcing climate data. This study is targeted at the evaluation of the quality of GCM-based climatic projections in the specific context of predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia. To accomplish this task, we used the output from 36 CMIP5 GCMs from the IPCC AR-5 data base for the control period 1975-2005 and calculated several climatic characteristics and indexes that are most often used in the impact models, i.e. the summer warmth index, duration of the vegetation growth period, precipitation sums, dryness index, thawing degree-day sums, and the annual temperature amplitude. We used data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighbouring countries to analyze the spatial patterns of modern climatic change and to delineate 17 large regions with coherent temperature changes in the past few decades. GSM results and observational data were averaged over the coherent regions and compared with each other. Ultimately, we evaluated the skills of individual models, ranked them in the context of regional impact modelling and identified top-end GCMs that "better than average" reproduce modern regional changes of the selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes. Selected top-end GCMs were used to compose several ensembles, each combining results from the different number of models. Ensembles were ranked using the same algorithm and outliers eliminated. We then used data from top-end ensembles for the 2000-2100 period to construct the climatic projections that are likely to be "better than average" in predicting climatic parameters that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia. The ultimate conclusions of our study are the following. • High-end GCMs that demonstrate excellent skills in conventional atmospheric model intercomparison experiments are not necessarily the best in replicating climatic characteristics that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia, and independent model evaluation on regional level is necessary to identify "better than average" GCMs. • Each of the ensembles combining results from several "better than average" models replicate selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes better than any single GCM. The ensemble skills are parameter-specific and depend on models it consists of. The best results are not necessarily those based on the ensemble comprised by all "better than average" models. • Comprehensive evaluation of climatic scenarios using specific criteria narrows the range of uncertainties in environmental projections.

Toward Robust Climate Baselining: Objective Assessment of Climate Change Using Widely Distributed Miniaturized Sensors for Accurate World-Wide Geophysical Measurements

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Teller, E.; Leith, C.; Canavan, G.; Marion, J.; Wood, L.

2001-11-13

A gap-free, world-wide, ocean-, atmosphere-, and land surface-spanning geophysical data-set of three decades time-duration containing the full set of geophysical parameters characterizing global weather is the scientific perquisite for defining the climate; the generally-accepted definition in the meteorological community is that climate is the 30-year running-average of weather. Until such a tridecadal climate baseline exists, climate change discussions inevitably will have a semi-speculative, vs. a purely scientific, character, as the baseline against which changes are referenced will at least somewhat uncertain.

Phenological behaviour of early spring flowering trees in Spain in response to recent climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo-Galvez, M. D.; García-Mozo, H.; Oteros, J.; Mestre, A.; Botey, R.; Galán, C.

2018-04-01

This research reports the phenological trends of four early spring and late winter flowering trees in Spain (south Europe) from a recent period (1986-2012). The studied species were deciduous trees growing in different climatic areas: hazel ( Corylus avellana L.), willow ( Salix alba L.), ash ( Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl.) and white mulberry ( Morus alba L.). We analysed the response to climate and the trends of the following phenophases observed at the field: budburst, leaf unfolding, flowering, fruit ripening, fruit harvesting, leaf colour change and leaf-fall. The study was carried out in 17 sampling sites in the country with the aim of detecting the recent phenological response to the climate of these species, and the possible effect of climate change. We have observed differences in the phenological response to climate depending on each species. Sixty-one percent of studied sites suffered an advance of early spring phenophases, especially budburst on average by -0.67 days and flowering on average by -0.15 days during the studied period, and also in the subsequent fruit ripening and harvesting phases on average by -1.06 days. By contrast, it has been detected that 63% of sampling sites showed a delay in autumn vegetative phases, especially leaf-fall events on average by +1.15 days. The statistic correlation analysis shows in the 55% of the studied localities that phenological advances are the consequence of the increasing trend detected for temperature—being minimum temperature the most influential factor—and in the 52% of them, phenological advances occurred by rainfall variations. In general, leaf unfolding and flowering from these species showed negative correlations in relation to temperature and rainfall, whereas that leaf colour change and leaf-fall presented positive correlations. The results obtained have a great relevance due to the fact that they can be considered as reliable bio-indicators of the impact of the recent climate changes in southern Europe.

Climate Voyager: An Iteratively Built Information and Visualization Tool for At-Risk Climate Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Lascurain, A.; Aldridge, H. D.; Davis, C.

2016-12-01

Climate Voyager provides an innovative way to visualize both large-scale and local climate change projections using a three-map layout and time series plot. This product includes a suite of tools designed to assist with climate risk and opportunity assessments, including changes in average seasonal conditions and the capability to evaluate a variety of different decision-relevant thresholds (e.g. changes in extreme temperature occurrence). Each tool summarizes output from 20 downscaled global climate models and contains a historical average for comparison with the spread of projected future outcomes. The Climate Voyager website is interactive, allowing users to explore both regional and location-specific guidance for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and four future 20-year time periods. By presenting climate model projections and measures of uncertainty of specific parameters beyond just annual temperatures and precipitation, Climate Voyager can help a wide variety of decision makers plan for climate changes that may affect them. We present a case study in which a new module was developed within Climate Voyager for use by Tribes and native communities in the eastern U.S. to help make informed resource decisions. In this first attempt, Ramps (Allium tricoccum), a plant species of great cultural significance, was incorporated through consultation with the tribal organization. We will also discuss the process of engagement employed with end-users and the potential to make the Climate Voyager interface an iterative, co-produced process to enhance the usability of climate model information for adaptation planning.

Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

PubMed Central

Van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, Esther D.; Madsen, Marianne S.; Olesen, Jørgen E.

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling was applied, considering both direct effects of changing climate on toxin contamination and indirect effects via shifts in crop phenology. Climate change projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario were used for the scenario period 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. Climatic data from two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering and full maturity of both wheat and maize will advance with future climate. Flowering advanced on average 5 and 11 days for wheat, and 7 and 14 days for maize (two climate model combinations). Full maturity was on average 10 and 17 days earlier for wheat, and 19 and 36 days earlier for maize. On the country level, contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol decreased slightly, but not significantly. Variability between regions was large, and individual regions showed a significant increase in deoxynivalenol concentrations. For maize, an overall decrease in deoxynivalenol contamination was projected, which was significant for one climate model combination, but not significant for the other one. In general, results disagree with previous reported expectations of increased feed and food safety hazards under climate change. This study illustrated the relevance of using quantitative models to estimate the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards. PMID:24066059

Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales.

PubMed

Gilman, Sarah E; Wethey, David S; Helmuth, Brian

2006-06-20

Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus over 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.

Physio-climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Ankit; Singh, Riddhi

2016-11-01

Understanding how a watershed's physio-climatic characteristics affect its vulnerability to environmental (climatic and land use) change is crucial for managing these complex systems. In this study, we combine the strengths of recently developed exploratory modeling frameworks and comparative hydrology to quantify the relationship between watershed's vulnerability and its physio-climatic characteristics. We propose a definition of vulnerability that can be used by a diverse range of water system managers and is useful in the presence of large uncertainties in drivers of environmental change. This definition is related to adverse climate change and land use thresholds that are quantified using a recently developed exploratory modeling approach. In this way, we estimate the vulnerability of 69 watersheds in the United States to climate and land use change. We explore definitions of vulnerability that describe average or extreme flow conditions, as well as others that are relevant from the point of view of instream organisms. In order to understand the dominant controls on vulnerability, we correlate these indices with watershed's characteristics describing its topography, geology, drainage, climate, and land use. We find that mean annual flow is more vulnerable to reductions in precipitation in watersheds with lower average soil permeability, lower baseflow index, lower forest cover, higher topographical wetness index, and vice-versa. Our results also indicate a potential mediation of climate change impacts by regional groundwater systems. By developing such relationships across a large range of watersheds, such information can potentially be used to assess the vulnerability of ungauged watersheds to uncertain environmental change.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

Climate change and occurrence of diarrheal diseases: evolving facts from Nepal.

PubMed

Bhandari, G P; Gurung, S; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

2012-09-01

Climate change is becoming huge threat to health especially for those from developing countries. Diarrhea as one of the major diseases linked with changing climate. This study has been carried out to assess the relationship between climatic variables, and malaria and to find out the range of non-climatic factors that can confound the relationship of climate change and human health. It is a Retrospective study where data of past ten years relating to climate and disease (diarrhea) variable were analyzed. The study conducted trend analysis based on correlation. The climate related data were obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Time Series analysis was also being conducted. The trend of number of yearly cases of diarrhea has been increasing from 1998 to 2001 after which the cases remain constant till 2006.The climate types in Jhapa vary from humid to per-humid based on the moisture index and Mega-thermal based on thermal efficiency. The mean annual temperature is increasing at an average of 0.04 °C/year with maximum temperature increasing faster than the minimum temperature. The annual total rainfall of Jhapa is decreasing at an average rate of -7.1 mm/year. Statistically significant correlation between diarrheal cases occurrence and temperature and rainfall has been observed. However, climate variables were not the significant predictors of diarrheal occurrence. The association among climate variables and diarrheal disease occurrence cannot be neglected which has been showed by this study. Further prospective longitudinal study adjusting influence of non-climatic factors is recommended.

Allergenic pollen season variations in the past two decades under changing climate in the United States

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Mi, Zhongyuan; Cai, Ting; Robock, Alan; Georgopoulos, Panos

2014-01-01

Many diseases are linked with climate trends and variations. In particular, climate change is expected to alter the spatiotemporal dynamics of allergenic airborne pollen and potentially increase occurrence of allergic airway disease. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in pollen season timing and levels is thus important in assessing climate impacts on aerobiology and allergy caused by allergenic airborne pollen. Here we describe the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in the seasonal timing and levels of allergenic airborne pollen for multiple taxa in different climate regions at a continental scale. The allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass during the past decade (2001–2010) across the contiguous United States have been observed to start 3.0 (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.1–4.9) days earlier on average than in the 1990s (1994–2000). The average peak value and annual total of daily counted airborne pollen have increased by 42.4% (95% CI, 21.9%–62.9%) and 46.0% (95% CI, 21.5%–70.5%), respectively. Changes of pollen season timing and airborne levels depend on latitude, and are associated with changes of growing degree days, frost free days, and precipitation. These changes are likely due to recent climate change and particularly the enhanced warming and precipitation at higher latitudes in the contiguous United States. PMID:25266307

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Subsurface Thermal Energy Storage for Improved Air Conditioning Efficiency

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

current cost liability is the potential for several significant structural changes at DoD facilities around the world. These challenges include... climate , with an average high temperature of 90 degrees in July, and an average low temperature of 39 in January. The annual average temperature is 65.6...in new systems. The first three steps are recommended for every geothermal system installed in cooling dominated areas ( climatically hot areas such

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

2018-02-01

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

Regional grassland productivity responses to precipitation during multiyear above- and below-average rainfall periods.

PubMed

Petrie, Matthew D; Peters, Debra P C; Yao, Jin; Blair, John M; Burruss, Nathan D; Collins, Scott L; Derner, Justin D; Gherardi, Laureano A; Hendrickson, John R; Sala, Osvaldo E; Starks, Patrick J; Steiner, Jean L

2018-05-01

There is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of changes in precipitation associated with climate change, and ecosystem responses are also uncertain. Multiyear periods of above- and below-average rainfall may foretell consequences of changes in rainfall regime. We compiled long-term aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation (PPT) data for eight North American grasslands, and quantified relationships between ANPP and PPT at each site, and in 1-3 year periods of above- and below-average rainfall for mesic, semiarid cool, and semiarid warm grassland types. Our objective was to improve understanding of ANPP dynamics associated with changing climatic conditions by contrasting PPT-ANPP relationships in above- and below-average PPT years to those that occurred during sequences of multiple above- and below-average years. We found differences in PPT-ANPP relationships in above- and below-average years compared to long-term site averages, and variation in ANPP not explained by PPT totals that likely are attributed to legacy effects. The correlation between ANPP and current- and prior-year conditions changed from year to year throughout multiyear periods, with some legacy effects declining, and new responses emerging. Thus, ANPP in a given year was influenced by sequences of conditions that varied across grassland types and climates. Most importantly, the influence of prior-year ANPP often increased with the length of multiyear periods, whereas the influence of the amount of current-year PPT declined. Although the mechanisms by which a directional change in the frequency of above- and below-average years imposes a persistent change in grassland ANPP require further investigation, our results emphasize the importance of legacy effects on productivity for sequences of above- vs. below-average years, and illustrate the utility of long-term data to examine these patterns. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

What's New | USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map

Science.gov Websites

water may provide milder winter weather and be in a warmer zone. Climate Change Climate changes are year), changes in zones are not reliable evidence of whether there has been global warming. Compared a result of a more recent averaging period (1974-1986 vs. 1976-2005). However, some of the changes

Climate change and maize yield in Iowa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan

Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21 st century as compared with late 20 th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model withmore » output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20 th century to middle and late 21 st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Lastly, our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21 st century.« less

Climate change and maize yield in Iowa

DOE PAGES

Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan

2016-05-24

Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21 st century as compared with late 20 th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model withmore » output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20 th century to middle and late 21 st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Lastly, our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21 st century.« less

Quantifying nonergodicity in nonautonomous dissipative dynamical systems: An application to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drótos, Gábor; Bódai, Tamás; Tél, Tamás

2016-08-01

In nonautonomous dynamical systems, like in climate dynamics, an ensemble of trajectories initiated in the remote past defines a unique probability distribution, the natural measure of a snapshot attractor, for any instant of time, but this distribution typically changes in time. In cases with an aperiodic driving, temporal averages taken along a single trajectory would differ from the corresponding ensemble averages even in the infinite-time limit: ergodicity does not hold. It is worth considering this difference, which we call the nonergodic mismatch, by taking time windows of finite length for temporal averaging. We point out that the probability distribution of the nonergodic mismatch is qualitatively different in ergodic and nonergodic cases: its average is zero and typically nonzero, respectively. A main conclusion is that the difference of the average from zero, which we call the bias, is a useful measure of nonergodicity, for any window length. In contrast, the standard deviation of the nonergodic mismatch, which characterizes the spread between different realizations, exhibits a power-law decrease with increasing window length in both ergodic and nonergodic cases, and this implies that temporal and ensemble averages differ in dynamical systems with finite window lengths. It is the average modulus of the nonergodic mismatch, which we call the ergodicity deficit, that represents the expected deviation from fulfilling the equality of temporal and ensemble averages. As an important finding, we demonstrate that the ergodicity deficit cannot be reduced arbitrarily in nonergodic systems. We illustrate via a conceptual climate model that the nonergodic framework may be useful in Earth system dynamics, within which we propose the measure of nonergodicity, i.e., the bias, as an order-parameter-like quantifier of climate change.

Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

2017-12-01

Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.

2017-12-01

The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

Dry forest resilience varies under simulated climate‐management scenarios in a central Oregon, USA landscape.

PubMed

Halofsky, Joshua S; Halofsky, Jessica E; Burcsu, Theresa; Hemstrom, Miles A

Determining appropriate actions to create or maintain landscapes resilient to climate change is challenging because of uncertainty associated with potential effects of climate change and their interactions with land management. We used a set of climate-informed state-and-transition models to explore the effects of management and natural disturbances on vegetation composition and structure under different future climates. Models were run for dry forests of central Oregon under a fire suppression scenario (i.e., no management other than the continued suppression of wildfires) and an active management scenario characterized by light to moderate thinning from below and some prescribed fire, planting, and salvage logging. Without climate change, area in dry province forest types remained constant. With climate change, dry mixed-conifer forests increased in area (by an average of 21–26% by 2100), and moist mixed-conifer forests decreased in area (by an average of 36–60% by 2100), under both management scenarios. Average area in dry mixed-conifer forests varied little by management scenario, but potential decreases in the moist mixed-conifer forest were lower with active management. With changing climate in the dry province of central Oregon, our results suggest the likelihood of sustaining current levels of dense, moist mixed-conifer forests with large-diameter, old trees is low (less than a 10% chance) irrespective of management scenario; an opposite trend was observed under no climate change simulations. However, results also suggest active management within the dry and moist mixed-conifer forests that creates less dense forest conditions can increase the persistence of larger-diameter, older trees across the landscape. Owing to projected increases in wildfire, our results also suggest future distributions of tree structures will differ from the present. Overall, our projections indicate proactive management can increase forest resilience and sustain some societal values, particularly in drier forest types. However, opportunities to create more disturbance-adapted systems are finite, all values likely cannot be sustained at current levels, and levels of resilience success will likely vary by dry province forest type. Land managers planning for a future without climate change may be assuming a future that is unlikely to exist.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Reading an Analogy Can Cause the Illusion of Comprehension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaeger, Allison J.; Wiley, Jennifer

2015-01-01

This study explored students' ability to evaluate their learning from a multimedia inquiry unit about the causes of global climate change. Participants were 90 sixth grade students from four science classrooms. Students were provided with a text describing the causes of climate change as well as graphs showing average global temperature changes.…

Climate warming: a loss of variation in populations can accompany reproductive shifts.

PubMed

Massot, Manuel; Legendre, Stéphane; Fédérici, Pierre; Clobert, Jean

2017-09-01

The most documented response of organisms to climate warming is a change in the average timing of seasonal activities (phenology). Although we know that these average changes can differ among species and populations, we do not know whether climate warming impacts within-population variation in phenology. Using data from five study sites collected during a 13-year survey, we found that the increase in spring temperatures is associated with a reproductive advance of 10 days in natural populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara). Interestingly, we show a correlated loss of variation in reproductive dates within populations. As illustrated by a model, this shortening of the reproductive period can have significant negative effects on population dynamics. Consequently, we encourage tests in other species to assess the generality of decreased variation in phenological responses to climate change. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael L.; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A.; Howe, Peter D.; Pretis, Felix; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-01

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that “global warming is happening.” This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved. PMID:27994143

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Mann, Michael L; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A; Howe, Peter D; Pretis, Felix; Tang, Xiaojing; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-03

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved.

Global warming: a public health concern.

PubMed

Afzal, Brenda M

2007-05-31

Over the last 100 years the average temperature on the Earth has risen approximately 1ºFahrenheit (F), increasing at a rate twice as fast as has been noted for any period in the last 1,000 years. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking, glaciers are melting, and the Arctic permafrost is thawing. There is mounting evidence that these global climate changes are already affecting human health. This article provides a brief overview of global warming and climate changes, discusses effects of climate change on health, considers the factors which contribute to climate changes, and reviews individual and collective efforts related to reducing global warming.

Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of oak and pine species of Mexico.

PubMed

Gómez-Mendoza, Leticia; Arriaga, Laura

2007-12-01

We examined the vulnerability of 34 species of oaks (Quercus) and pines (Pinus) to the effects of global climate change in Mexico. We regionalized the HadCM2 model of climate change with local climatic data (mean annual temperature and rainfall) and downscaled the model with the inverse distance-weighted method. Databases of herbaria specimens, genetic algorithms (GARP), and digital covers of biophysical variables that affect oaks and pines were used to project geographic distributions of the species under a severe and conservative scenario of climate change for the year 2050. Starting with the current average temperature of 20.2 degrees C and average precipitation of 793 mm, under the severe warming scenario mean temperature and precipitation changed to 22.7 degrees C and 660 mm, respectively, in 2050. For the conservative warming scenario, these variables shifted to 21.8 degrees C and 721 mm. Responses to the different scenarios of climate change were predicted to be species-specific and related to each species climate affinity. The current geographic distribution of oaks and pines decreased 7-48% and 0.2-64%, respectively. The more vulnerable pines were Pinus rudis, P. chihuahuana, P. oocarpa, and P. culminicola, and the most vulnerable oaks were Quercus crispipilis, Q. peduncularis, Q. acutifolia, and Q. sideroxyla. In addition to habitat conservation, we think sensitive pine and oak species should be looked at more closely to define ex situ strategies (i.e., seed preservation in germplasm banks) for their long-term conservation. Modeling climatic-change scenarios is important to the development of conservation strategies.

How will climate change affect watershed mercury export in a representative Coastal Plain watershed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, H. E.; Knightes, C. D.; Conrads, P. A.; Feaster, T.; Davis, G. M.; Benedict, S. T.; Bradley, P. M.

2012-12-01

Future climate change is expected to drive variations in watershed hydrological processes and water quality across a wide range of physiographic provinces, ecosystems, and spatial scales. How such shifts in climatic conditions will impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and hydrologically-driven Hg transport is a significant concern. We simulate the responses of watershed hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to a unified set of past and future climate change projections in a Coastal Plain basin using multiple watershed models. We use two statistically downscaled global precipitation and temperature models, ECHO, a hybrid of the ECHAM4 and HOPE-G models, and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) across two thirty-year simulations (1980 to 2010 and 2040 to 2070). We apply three watershed models to quantify and bracket potential changes in hydrologic and HgT fluxes, including the Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessment Model for Hg (VELMA-Hg), the Grid Based Mercury Model (GBMM), and TOPLOAD, a water quality constituent model linked to TOPMODEL hydrological simulations. We estimate a decrease in average annual HgT fluxes in response to climate change using the ECHO projections and an increase with the CCSM3 projections in the study watershed. Average monthly HgT fluxes increase using both climate change projections between in the late spring (March through May), when HgT concentrations and flow are high. Results suggest that hydrological transport associated with changes in precipitation and temperature is the primary mechanism driving HgT flux response to climate change. Our multiple model/multiple projection approach allows us to bracket the relative response of HgT fluxes to climate change, thereby illustrating the uncertainty associated with the projections. In addition, our approach allows us to examine potential variations in climate change-driven water and HgT export based on different conceptualizations of watershed HgT dynamics and the representative mathematical structures underpinning existing watershed Hg models.

Climate change impacts on global rainfed agricultural land availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

2010-12-01

Global rainfed agricultural land availability can be subject to significant changes in both magnitude and spatial distribution due to climate change. We assess the possible changes using current and projected climate data from thirteen general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, together with global databases on land, including soil properties and slope. Two ensemble methods with the set of GCMs, Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), are employed to abate uncertainty involved in global GCM projections for assembling regional climate. Fuzzy logic, which handles land classification in an approximate yet efficient way, is adopted to estimate the land suitability through empirically determined membership functions and fuzzy rules chosen through a learning process based on remote sensed crop land products. Land suitability under five scenarios, which include the present-climate baseline scenario and four projected scenarios, A1B-SAM, A1B-RMSEMM, B1-SAM, and B1-RMSEMM, are assessed for both global and seven important agricultural regions in the world, Africa, China, India, Europe (excluding Russia), Russia, South America, and U.S. It is found that countries at the high latitudes of north hemisphere are more likely to benefit from climate change with respect to agricultural land availability; while countries at mid- and low latitudes may suffer different levels of loss of potential arable land. Expansions of the gross potential arable land are likely to occur in regions at the north high latitudes, including Russia, North China and U.S., while land shrinking can be expected in South America, Africa, India and Europe. Although the greatest potential for agricultural expansion lies in Africa and South America, with current cultivated land accounting for 20% and 13% respectively of the net potential arable land, negative effects from climate change may decline the potential. In summary, climate change is likely to alter the global distribution of potential rainfed arable land and further influence agricultural production and related socio-economic aspects around the end of this century. Global suitable rainfed agricultural land (can be used for regular crops) changes between A1B-SAM scenario based on 2070-2099 averaged climate data and baseline scenario simulated using 1961-1990 averaged climate data

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

PubMed Central

Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981–2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981–2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change. PMID:29099842

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Junfang; Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

A Statistical Modeling Framework for Projecting Future Ambient Ozone and its Health Impact due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2014-01-01

The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041–2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999–2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: −7% to 24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models. PMID:24764746

Climate change impacts on high-elevation hydroelectricity in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madani, Kaveh; Guégan, Marion; Uvo, Cintia B.

2014-03-01

While only about 30% of California's usable water storage capacity lies at higher elevations, high-elevation (above 300 m) hydropower units generate, on average, 74% of California's in-state hydroelectricity. In general, high-elevation plants have small man-made reservoirs and rely mainly on snowpack. Their low built-in storage capacity is a concern with regard to climate warming. Snowmelt is expected to shift to earlier in the year, and the system may not be able to store sufficient water for release in high-demand periods. Previous studies have explored the climate warming effects on California's high-elevation hydropower by focusing on the supply side (exploring the effects of hydrological changes on generation and revenues) ignoring the warming effects on hydroelectricity demand and pricing. This study extends the previous work by simultaneous consideration of climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower supply and pricing in California. The California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM 2.0) is applied to evaluate the adaptability of California's high-elevation hydropower system to climate warming, considering the warming effects on hydroelectricity supply and pricing. The model's results relative to energy generation, energy spills, reservoir energy storage, and average shadow prices of energy generation and storage capacity expansion are examined and discussed. These results are compared with previous studies to emphasize the need to consider climate change effects on hydroelectricity demand and pricing when exploring the effects of climate change on hydropower operations.

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

2015-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2016-01-01

Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

Gender and climate change-induced migration: proposing a framework for analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chindarkar, Namrata

2012-06-01

This paper proposes frameworks to analyze the gender dimensions of climate change-induced migration. The experiences, needs and priorities of climate migrants will vary by gender and these differences need to be accounted for if policies are to be inclusive. Among the vulnerable groups, women are likely to be disproportionately affected due to climate change because on average women tend to be poorer, less educated, have a lower health status and have limited direct access to or ownership of natural resources. Both the process (actual movement) and the outcomes (rural-rural or rural-urban migration, out-migration mainly of men) of climate change-induced migration are also likely to be highly gendered.

Impacts of impervious cover, water withdrawals, and climate change on river flows in the conterminous US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, P. V.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; Cohen, E. C.; Moore Myers, J. A.

2012-08-01

Rivers are essential to aquatic ecosystem and societal sustainability, but are increasingly impacted by water withdrawals, land-use change, and climate change. The relative and cumulative effects of these stressors on continental river flows are relatively unknown. In this study, we used an integrated water balance and flow routing model to evaluate the impacts of impervious cover and water withdrawal on river flow across the conterminous US at the 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) watershed scale. We then estimated the impacts of projected change in withdrawals, impervious cover, and climate under the B1 "Low" and A2 "High" emission scenarios on river flows by 2060. Our results suggest that compared to no impervious cover, 2010 levels of impervious cover increased river flows by 9.9% on average with larger impacts in and downstream of major metropolitan areas. In contrast, compared to no water withdrawals, 2005 withdrawals decreased river flows by 1.4% on average with larger impacts in heavily irrigated arid regions of Western US. By 2060, impacts of climate change were predicted to overwhelm the potential gain in river flow due to future changes in impervious cover and add to the potential reduction in river flows from withdrawals, decreasing mean annual river flows from 2010 levels by 16% on average. However, increases in impervious cover by 2060 may offset the impact of climate change during the growing season in some watersheds. Large water withdrawals will aggravate the predicted impact of climate change on river flows, particularly in the Western US. Predicted ecohydrological impacts of land cover, water withdrawal, and climate change will likely include alteration of the terrestrial water balance, stream channel habitat, riparian and aquatic community structure in snow-dominated basins, and fish and mussel extirpations in heavily impacted watersheds. These changes may also require new infrastructure to support increasing anthropogenic demand for water, relocation of agricultural production, and/or water conservation measures. Given that the impacts of land use, withdrawals and climate may be either additive or offsetting in different magnitudes, integrated and spatially explicit modeling and management approaches are necessary to effectively manage water resources for aquatic life and human use in the face of global change.

Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

PubMed

Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

2015-06-01

Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation.

Introduction to climate change adaptation and mitigation management options

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Kier D. Klepzig

2014-01-01

Climate is a critical factor shaping the structure and function of forest ecosystems in the Southern United States. Human induced changes in climate systems have resulted in an increase in the global average air temperature of about 0.8°C since the 1900s (Pachuri and Reisinger 2007). Data from long-term weather stations show that overall, the continental United States...

Climate Change Impacts at Department of Defense Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-16

locations. The ease of use of this method and its flexibility have led to a wide variety of applications for assessing impacts of climate change 4...versions of these statistical methods to provide the basis for regional climate assessments for various states, regions, and government agencies...averaging (REA) method proposed by Giorgi and Mearns (2002). This method assigns reliability classifications for the multi-model ensemble simulation by

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Zhang, Hongliang

2018-01-01

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.

Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yihui; Ren, Guoyu; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying; Luo, Yong; Li, Qiaoping; Zhang, Jin

2007-11-01

This article summarizes the main results and findings of studies conducted by Chinese scientists in the past five years. It is shown that observed climate change in China bears a strong similarity with the global average. The country-averaged annual mean surface air temperature has increased by 1.1°C over the past 50 years and 0.5-0.8°C over the past 100 years, slightly higher than the global temperature increase for the same periods. Northern China and winter have experienced the greatest increases in surface air temperature. Although no significant trend has been found in country-averaged annual precipitation, interdecadal variability and obvious trends on regional scales are detectable, with northwestern China and the mid and lower Yangtze River basin having undergone an obvious increase, and North China a severe drought. Some analyses show that frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events have also undergone significant changes in the past 50 years or so. Studies of the causes of regional climate change through the use of climate models and consideration of various forcings, show that the warming of the last 50 years could possibly be attributed to an increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, while the temperature change of the first half of the 20th century may be due to solar activity, volcanic eruptions and sea surface temperature change. A significant decline in sunshine duration and solar radiation at the surface in eastern China has been attributed to the increased emission of pollutants. Projections of future climate by models of the NCC (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration) and the IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences), as well as 40 models developed overseas, indicate a potential significant warming in China in the 21st century, with the largest warming set to occur in winter months and in northern China. Under varied emission scenarios, the country-averaged annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.1°C by 2020, 2.3-3.3°C by 2050, and by 3.9-6.0°C by 2100, in comparison to the 30-year average of 1961-1990. Most models project a 10%-12% increase in annual precipitation in China by 2100, with the trend being particularly evident in Northeast and Northwest China, but with parts of central China probably undergoing a drying trend. Large uncertainty exists in the projection of precipitation, and further studies are needed. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change will probably lead to a weaker winter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon in eastern Asia.

Impact of climate change on mercury concentrations and deposition in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Megaritis, Athanasios G; Murphy, Benjamin N; Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J; Pandis, Spyros N

2014-07-15

The global-regional climate-air pollution modeling system (GRE-CAPS) was applied over the eastern United States to study the impact of climate change on the concentration and deposition of atmospheric mercury. Summer and winter periods (300 days for each) were simulated, and the present-day model predictions (2000s) were compared to the future ones (2050s) assuming constant emissions. Climate change affects Hg(2+) concentrations in both periods. On average, atmospheric Hg(2+) levels are predicted to increase in the future by 3% in summer and 5% in winter respectively due to enhanced oxidation of Hg(0) under higher temperatures. The predicted concentration change of Hg(2+) was found to vary significantly in space due to regional-scale changes in precipitation, ranging from -30% to 30% during summer and -20% to 40% during winter. Particulate mercury, Hg(p) has a similar spatial response to climate change as Hg(2+), while Hg(0) levels are not predicted to change significantly. In both periods, the response of mercury deposition to climate change varies spatially with an average predicted increase of 6% during summer and 4% during winter. During summer, deposition increases are predicted mostly in the western parts of the domain while mercury deposition is predicted to decrease in the Northeast and also in many areas in the Midwest and Southeast. During winter mercury deposition is predicted to change from -30% to 50% mainly due to the changes in rainfall and the corresponding changes in wet deposition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of NARCCAP Model Projections to Develop a Future Typical Meteorological Year and Estimate the Impact of a Changing Climate on Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.

2013-12-01

Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of current building practices holding up under future climate change, we recommend using our methods and results to make modifications and adaptations to existing buildings and to aid in the design of future buildings.

Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.

PubMed

Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kocarev, Ljupco

This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automatedmore » combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.« less

Effects of Regional Climate Change on the Wave Conditions in the Western Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreier, N.; Fröhle, P.

2017-12-01

The local wave climate in the Western Baltic Sea is mainly generated by the local wind field over the area. Long-term changes of the local wind conditions that are induced e.g. by regional climate change, directly affect the local wave climate and other local wind driven coastal processes like e.g. the longshore sediment transport. The changes of the local wave climate play an important role for the safe functional and structural design of new, or the adaption of existing, coastal protection structures as well as for the assessment of long-term morphological changes of the coastline. In this study, the wave model SWAN is used for the calculation of hourly wave conditions in the Western Baltic Sea between 1960 and 2100. Future wind conditions from two regional climate models (Cosmo-CLM and REMO) that have been forced by different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios used within AR4 (A1B, B1) and AR5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of IPCC are used as input for the wave model. The changes of the average wave conditions are analyzed from comparisons between the 30 years averages for the future (e.g. 2071-2100) and the reference period 1971-2000. Regarding the emission scenarios A1B and B1, a significant change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height at westerly wind exposed locations with predominant higher values up to +10% is found (cf. Fig. 1). In contrast, the change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height is more weak at easterly wind exposed locations, resulting in higher and lower values between -5% to +5%. Moreover, more wave events from W-NW and fewer events from N-NE can be expected, due to changes of the frequency of occurrence of the 30 years averages of mean wave direction. The changes of extreme wave heights are analyzed based on methods of extreme value analysis and the time series of wave parameters at selected locations nearby the German Baltic Sea coast. No robust changes of the significant wave heights with a return period of 200 years are found for the emission scenarios A1B and B1. Both increases and decreases of the extreme wave heights are possible within a range of -18% to +18% (-0.5m to +0.5m). In the presentation, we will show results from the assessment of the changes of the wave conditions for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and discuss possible impacts for the German Baltic Sea coast.

Climate change effects on livestock in the Northeast U.S. and strategies for adaptation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The livestock industries are a major contributor to the economy of the northeastern United States. Climate models predict increased average maximum temperatures, days with temperatures exceeding 25°C, and higher annual precipitation in the Northeast. These environmental changes combined with increas...

'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

PubMed

Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang

2010-12-01

Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two major drivers influencing streamflow change in large-scale forested watersheds. The greatest challenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is the removal of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantify respective contributions of large-scale forest disturbance and climatic variability on streamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km2) located in the central part of British Columbia, Canada. Long-term (>50 years) data on hydrology, climate, and timber harvesting history represented by equivalent clear-cutting area (ECA) were available to discern climatic and forestry influences on streamflow by three steps. First, effective precipitation, an integrated climatic index, was generated by subtracting evapotranspiration from precipitation. Second, modified double mass curves were developed by plotting accumulated annual streamflow against annual effective precipitation, which presented a much clearer picture of the cumulative effects of forest disturbance on streamflow following removal of climatic influence. The average annual streamflow changes that were attributed to forest disturbances and climatic variability were then estimated to be +58.7 and -72.4 mm, respectively. The positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) values in streamflow change indicated opposite change directions, which suggest an offsetting effect between forest disturbance and climatic variability in the study watershed. Finally, a multivariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was generated to establish quantitative relationships between accumulated annual streamflow deviation attributed to forest disturbances and annual ECA. The model was then used to project streamflow change under various timber harvesting scenarios. The methodology can be effectively applied to any large-scale single watershed where long-term data (>50 years) are available.

Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climatemore » change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.« less

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.

PubMed

Sanderson, M G; Hemming, D L; Betts, R A

2011-01-13

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

Simulated projection of ISMR over Indian Himalayan region: assessment from CSIRO-CORDEX South Asia experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Sandipan; Hazra, Anupam; Kumar, Kireet; Nandi, Shyamal K.; Dhyani, Pitamber P.

2017-09-01

In view of a significant lacuna in the Himalaya-specific knowledge of forthcoming expected changes in the rainfall climatology, this study attempts to assess the expected changes in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) pattern exclusively over the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) during 2020-2070 in comparison to a baseline period of 1970-2005 under two different warming scenarios, i.e., representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Five climate model products from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization initiated Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment of World Climate Research Programme over south Asia region are used for this purpose. Among the several different features of ISMR, this study attempts to investigate expected changes in the average summer monsoon rainfall and percent monthly rainfall to the total monsoon seasonal rainfall using multimodel averages. Furthermore, this study attempts to identify the topographical ranges which are expected to be mostly affected by the changing average monsoon seasonal rainfall over IHR. Results from the multimodel average analysis indicate that the rainfall climatology is expected to increase by >0.75 mm/day over the foothills of northwest Himalaya during 2020-2070, whereas the rainfall climatology is expected to decrease for the flood plains of Brahmaputra under a warmer climate. The monthly percent rainfall of June is expected to rise by more than 1% over the northwestern Himalaya during 2020-2040 (although insignificant at p value <0.05), whereas the same for August and September is expected to decrease over the eastern Himalaya under a warmer climate. In terms of rainfall changes along the altitudinal gradient, this study indicates that the two significant rainfall regions, one at around 900 m and the other around 2000 m of the northwestern Himalaya are expected to see positive changes (>1%) in rainfall climatology during 2020-2070, whereas regions more than 1500 m in eastern Himalaya are expected to experience inconsistent variation in rainfall climatology under a warmer climate scenario.

Can increasing carbon dioxide cause climate change?

PubMed Central

Lindzen, Richard S.

1997-01-01

The realistic physical functioning of the greenhouse effect is reviewed, and the role of dynamic transport and water vapor is identified. Model errors and uncertainties are quantitatively compared with the forcing due to doubling CO2, and they are shown to be too large for reliable model evaluations of climate sensitivities. The possibility of directly measuring climate sensitivity is reviewed. A direct approach using satellite data to relate changes in globally averaged radiative flux changes at the top of the atmosphere to naturally occurring changes in global mean temperature is described. Indirect approaches to evaluating climate sensitivity involving the response to volcanic eruptions and Eocene climate change are also described. Finally, it is explained how, in principle, a climate that is insensitive to gross radiative forcing as produced by doubling CO2 might still be able to undergo major changes of the sort associated with ice ages and equable climates. PMID:11607742

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity.

PubMed

Kissling, W D; Field, R; Korntheuer, H; Heyder, U; Böhning-Gaese, K

2010-07-12

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.

Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Orozco, Carlos E.; Pollock, Laura J.; Thornhill, Andrew H.; Mishler, Brent D.; Knerr, Nunzio; Laffan, Shawn W.; Miller, Joseph T.; Rosauer, Dan F.; Faith, Daniel P.; Nipperess, David A.; Kujala, Heini; Linke, Simon; Butt, Nathalie; Külheim, Carsten; Crisp, Michael D.; Gruber, Bernd

2016-12-01

Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.

Cuticular waxes in alpine meadow plants: climate effect inferred from latitude gradient in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Guo, Yanjun; Guo, Na; He, Yuji; Gao, Jianhua

2015-09-01

Alpine meadow ecosystems are susceptible to climate changes. Still, climate impact on cuticular wax in alpine meadow plants is poorly understood. Assessing the variations of cuticular wax in alpine meadow plants across different latitudes might be useful for predicting how they may respond to climate change. We studied nine alpine meadows in a climate gradient in the east side of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with mean annual temperature ranging from -7.7 to 3.2°C. In total, 42 plant species were analyzed for cuticular wax, averaged 16 plant species in each meadow. Only four plant species could be observed in all sampling meadows, including Kobresia humilis,Potentilla nivea,Anaphalis lacteal, and Leontopodium nanum. The amounts of wax compositions and total cuticular wax in the four plant species varied among sampling meadows, but no significant correlation could be observed between them and temperature, precipitation, and aridity index based on plant species level. To analyze the variations of cuticular wax on community level, we averaged the amounts of n-alkanes, aliphatic acids, primary alcohols, and total cuticular wax across all investigated plant species in each sampling site. The mean annual temperature, mean temperature in July, and aridity index were significantly correlated with the averaged amounts of wax compositions and total cuticular wax. The average chain length of n-alkanes in both plant and soil linearly increased with increased temperature, whereas reduced with increased aridity index. No significant correlation could be observed between mean annual precipitation and mean precipitation from June to August and the cuticular wax amounts and average chain length. Our results suggest that the survival of some alpine plants in specific environments might be depended on their abilities in adjusting wax deposition on plant leaves, and the alpine meadow plants as a whole respond to climate change, benefiting the stability of alpine meadow ecosystem.

Impact of Future Emissions and Climate Change on Surface Ozone over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, C. T.; Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Rieder, H. E.; Kinney, P.; Wang, S.; Correa, G. J. P.

2017-12-01

China's immense ambient air pollution problem and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions place it at the forefront of global efforts to address these related environmental concerns. Here, we analyze the impact of ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) future emissions scenarios representative of current legislation (CLE) and maximum technically feasible emissions reductions (MFR) on surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China in the 2030s and 2050s, in the context of a changing climate. We use a suite of simulations performed with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 global chemistry-climate model. To estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality, we hold emissions of air pollutants including O3 precursors fixed at 2015 levels but allow climate (global sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover) to change according to decadal averages for the years 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 from a three-member ensemble of GFDL-CM3 simulations under the RCP8.5 high warming scenario. Evaluation of the present-day simulation (2015 CLE) with observations from 1497 chiefly urban air quality monitoring stations shows that simulated surface O3 is positively biased by 26 ppb on average over the domain of China. Previous studies, however, have shown that the modeled ozone response to changes in NOx emissions over the Eastern United States mirrors the magnitude and structure of observed changes in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) O3 distributions. Therefore, we use the model's simulated changes for the 2030s and 2050s to project changes in policy-relevant MDA8 O3 concentrations. We find an overall increase in MDA8 O3 for CLE scenarios in which emissions of NOx precursors are projected to increase, and under MFR scenarios, an overall decrease, with the highest changes occurring in summertime for both 2030 and 2050 MFR. Under climate change alone, the model simulates a mean summertime decrease of 1.3 ppb and wintertime increase of 3.3 ppb by 2050. Adjustment of the observed site-level MDA8 O3 distribution to reflect regionally interpolated projected changes from AM3 allows us to examine changes in the number of days in exceedance of MDA8 O3 Level I (50 ppb) and Level II (80 ppb) Chinese national ambient air quality standards.

SIMULATING REGIONAL-SCALE AIR QUALITY WITH DYNAMIC CHANGES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE AND CHEMICAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

This poster compares air quality modeling simulations under current climate and a future (approximately 2050) climate scenario. Differences in predicted ozone episodes and daily average PM_2.5 concentrations are presented, along with vertical ozone profiles. Modeling ...

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Pacific Islands

Treesearch

Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

2011-01-01

The Pacific islands face a variety of impacts as a result of climate change. Already-observed changes include increased average temperatures, coral bleaching, sea level rise and associated coastal erosion, increased intensity of cyclones, and a trend toward drier conditions. In the next century, sea level rise and associated erosion are expected to shrink shorelines...

Cosmic rays and other rpace phenomena influenced on the Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lev, Dorman

2016-07-01

We consider effects of cosmic rays (CR) and some other space phenomena on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the Earth's climate is very unstable: decreasing of planetary average annual temperature leads to an increase of planetary snow surface, and decreasing of the total annual solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more. And inverse: increasing planetary temperature leads to an decrease of snow surface, and increasing of the total solar energy input into the system increases the planetary temperature even more. From this follows that even energetically small factors acted long time in one direction may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are CR (mostly through its influence on planetary cloudiness) and space dust (SD) through their influence on the flux of solar irradiation and on formation of clouds (these actions are in one direction). It is important that CR and SD influenced on global climate change in the same direction. Increasing of CR planetary intensity leads to increasing of formation clouds (especially low clouds on altitudes smaller than 3 km), increasing annual average of raining and decreasing of annual average planetary temperature. Increasing of SD decreases of solar irradiation and increases cloudiness what leads also to decreasing of annual average planetary temperature. Moreover, interactions of CR particles with dust granules decreases their dimensions what increased effectiveness of their actions on clouds. We consider data great variations of planetary temperature much before the beginning of the Earth's technological civilization (mostly caused by moving of the solar system around our Galaxy centre and collisions with molecular-dust clouds). We consider in details not only situation during the last hundred years, but also situation in the last one thousand years (and especially situation during Maunder minimum of solar activity), during many thousand and many millions years. It is shown that very big changes in climate were caused also by some rarely phenomena as impacts of asteroids and nearby supernova explosions with great influence on biosphere. We discuss also the problem on forecasting of global climate change what is especially important for saving present civilization from great climate catastrophes.

Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogués-Bravo, D.; Veloz, S.; Holt, B. G.; Singarayer, J.; Valdes, P.; Davis, B.; Brewer, S. C.; Williams, J. W.; Rahbek, C.

2016-12-01

Conservation decisions are informed by twenty-first-century climate impact projections that typically predict high extinction risk. Conversely, the palaeorecord shows strong sensitivity of species abundances and distributions to past climate changes, but few clear instances of extinctions attributable to rising temperatures. However, few studies have incorporated palaeoecological data into projections of future distributions. Here we project changes in abundance and conservation status under a climate warming scenario for 187 European and North American plant taxa using niche-based models calibrated against taxa-climate relationships for the past 21,000 years. We find that incorporating long-term data into niche-based models increases the magnitude of projected future changes for plant abundances and community turnover. The larger projected changes in abundances and community turnover translate into different, and often more threatened, projected IUCN conservation status for declining tree taxa, compared with traditional approaches. An average of 18.4% (North America) and 15.5% (Europe) of taxa switch IUCN categories when compared with single-time model results. When taxa categorized as `Least Concern' are excluded, the palaeo-calibrated models increase, on average, the conservation threat status of 33.2% and 56.8% of taxa. Notably, however, few models predict total disappearance of taxa, suggesting resilience for these taxa, if climate were the only extinction driver. Long-term studies linking palaeorecords and forecasting techniques have the potential to improve conservation assessments.

The Poleward Shift of Storm Tracks Under Climate Change: Tracking Cyclones in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaspi, Y.; Tamarin, T.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate the distribution of precipitation and wind in the midlatitudes, and therefore their frequency, intensity, and paths have a significant effect on weather and climate. Comprehensive climate models forced by enhanced greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under a climate change scenario, the latitudinal band of storm tracks would shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what is the dominant dynamical mechanism. Here we use a Lagrangian approach to study the poleward shift, by employing a storm-tracking algorithm on an ensemble of CMIP5 models forced by increased CO2 emissions. We demonstrate that in addition to a poleward shift in the latitude of storm genesis, associated with the expansion of the Hadley cell, the averaged cyclonic storm also propagates more poleward until it reaches its maximum intensity. A mechanism for enhanced poleward motion of cyclones in a warmer climate is proposed, supported by idealized global warming experiments, and relates the shift to changes in upper level jet and atmospheric water vapour content. Our results imply that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the averaged latitude of peak cyclone intensity shifts poleward by about 1.2○ (1.0○) in the Atlantic (Pacific) storm track in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and by about 1.6○ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) storm track. These changes in cyclone tracks can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnel, Michael S.; Ignizio, Drew A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed climate indices, referred to as bioclimatic predictors, which highlight climate conditions best related to species physiology. A set of 20 bioclimatic predictors were developed as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continuous raster surfaces for each year between 1895 and 2009. The Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and down-scaled PRISM data, which included both averaged multi-year and averaged monthly climate summaries, was used to develop these multi-scale bioclimatic predictors. Bioclimatic predictors capture information about annual conditions (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual range in temperature and precipitation), as well as seasonal mean climate conditions and intra-year seasonality (temperature of the coldest and warmest months, precipitation of the wettest and driest quarters). Examining climate over time is useful when quantifying the effects of climate changes on species' distributions for past, current, and forecasted scenarios. These data, which have not been readily available to scientists, can provide biologists and ecologists with relevant and multi-scaled climate data to augment research on the responses of species to changing climate conditions. The relationships established between species demographics and distributions with bioclimatic predictors can inform land managers of climatic effects on species during decisionmaking processes.

Herbarium specimens can reveal impacts of climate change on plant phenology; a review of methods and applications.

PubMed

Jones, Casey A; Daehler, Curtis C

2018-01-01

Studies in plant phenology have provided some of the best evidence for large-scale responses to recent climate change. Over the last decade, more than thirty studies have used herbarium specimens to analyze changes in flowering phenology over time, although studies from tropical environments are thus far generally lacking. In this review, we summarize the approaches and applications used to date. Reproductive plant phenology has primarily been analyzed using two summary statistics, the mean flowering day of year and first-flowering day of year, but mean flowering day has proven to be a more robust statistic. Two types of regression models have been applied to test for associations between flowering, temperature and time: flowering day regressed on year and flowering day regressed on temperature. Most studies analyzed the effect of temperature by averaging temperatures from three months prior to the date of flowering. On average, published studies have used 55 herbarium specimens per species to characterize changes in phenology over time, but in many cases fewer specimens were used. Geospatial grid data are increasingly being used for determining average temperatures at herbarium specimen collection locations, allowing testing for finer scale correspondence between phenology and climate. Multiple studies have shown that inferences from herbarium specimen data are comparable to findings from systematically collected field observations. Understanding phenological responses to climate change is a crucial step towards recognizing implications for higher trophic levels and large-scale ecosystem processes. As herbaria are increasingly being digitized worldwide, more data are becoming available for future studies. As temperatures continue to rise globally, herbarium specimens are expected to become an increasingly important resource for analyzing plant responses to climate change.

Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Frumkin, Howard; Holloway, Tracey; Vimont, Daniel J; Haines, Andrew

2014-10-15

Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaled climate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average ozone with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center. By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). High temperatures are also strongly associated with ozone exceedance days, for example, in Chicago, Illinois. The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by air pollution and aeroallergens, such as asthma; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and waterborne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic cobenefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US and international carbon policies. Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Upgrades to the REA method for producing probabilistic climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

We present an augmented version of the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method designed to generate probabilistic climate change information from ensembles of climate model simulations. Compared to the original version, the augmented one includes consideration of multiple variables and statistics in the calculation of the performance-based weights. In addition, the model convergence criterion previously employed is removed. The method is applied to the calculation of changes in mean and variability for temperature and precipitation over different sub-regions of East Asia based on the recently completed CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. Comparison of the new and old REA methods, along with the simple averaging procedure, and the use of different combinations of performance metrics shows that at fine sub-regional scales the choice of weighting is relevant. This is mostly because the models show a substantial spread in performance for the simulation of precipitation statistics, a result that supports the use of model weighting as a useful option to account for wide ranges of quality of models. The REA method, and in particular the upgraded one, provides a simple and flexible framework for assessing the uncertainty related to the aggregation of results from ensembles of models in order to produce climate change information at the regional scale. KEY WORDS: REA method, Climate change, CMIP3

Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; Hutjes, Ronald; Holtslag, Albert

2016-10-01

The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3-5 and 2-5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7-8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2-6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Implications of climate change damage for agriculture: sectoral evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

2016-10-01

This paper gives a projection of the possible damage of climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 2012-2037, based on a dynamic approach, using an environment-related applied computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Climate damage projections depict an upward trend for the period of review and are found to be higher than the global average. Further, the damage to the agricultural sector exceeds that for the overall economy. By sector, climatic damage disproportionately affects the major and minor crops, livestock and fisheries. The largest losses following climate change, relative to the other agricultural sectors, are expected for livestock. The reason for this is the orthodox system of production for livestock, with a low adaptability to negative shocks of climate change. Overall, the findings reveal the high exposure of the agriculture sector to climate damage. In this regard, policymakers in Pakistan should take seriously the effects of climate change on agriculture and consider suitable technology to mitigate those damages.

Impacts of climate change on distributions and diversity of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Luo, Zhenhua; Jiang, Zhigang; Tang, Songhua

2015-01-01

Climate change has significant impacts on species' distributions and diversity patterns. Understanding range shifts and changes in richness gradients under climate change is crucial for conservation. The Tibetan Plateau, home to wild yak, chiru, and kiang, contains a biome with many endemic ungulates. It is highly sensitive to climate change and a region that merits particular attention with regard to the impacts of global climate change on its biomes. Maximum entropy approaches were used to estimate current and future potential distributions, in response to climate change, for 22 ungulate species. We used three general circulation (MK3, HADCM3, MIROC3_2-MED) and three emissions scenarios (Bl, A1B, A2) to derive estimated future measurements of 14 environmental variables over three time periods (2020, 2050, 2080), and then modeled species distributions using these predicted environmental measurements for each time period under two dispersal hypotheses (full and zero, respectively). This resulted in a total of 6160 prediction models. We found that these ungulates, on average, may lose 30-50% of their distributional areas, depending on the dispersal scenarios. In addition, 55-68% of the ungulate species were predicted to become locally endangered under the different dispersal assumptions, 23-32% to become locally critically endangered, and 4-7 endemic species to become globally endangered. Furthermore, ungulate species ranges may experience average poleward shifts of ~300 km. We also predict west-to-east reductions in species richness: southeastern mountainous areas currently have the highest species richness, but are predicted to face the greatest diversity losses, whereas the northern areas are predicted to see increasing numbers of ungulate species in the 21st century. Our study indicates much more severe range reductions of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau than those anticipated elsewhere in the world, and species richness patterns will change dramatically with climate change. For conservation, we suggest (1) securing existing protected areas, and (2) establishing new nature reserves to counterbalance climate change impacts.

Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussi, Gianbattista; Dadson, Simon J.; Prudhomme, Christel; Whitehead, Paul G.

2016-11-01

The effects of climate change and variability on river flows have been widely studied. However the impacts of such changes on sediment transport have received comparatively little attention. In part this is because modelling sediment production and transport processes introduces additional uncertainty, but it also results from the fact that, alongside the climate change signal, there have been and are projected to be significant changes in land cover which strongly affect sediment-related processes. Here we assess the impact of a range of climatic variations and land covers on the River Thames catchment (UK). We first calculate a response of the system to climatic stressors (average precipitation, average temperature and increase in extreme precipitation) and land-cover stressors (change in the extent of arable land). To do this we use an ensemble of INCA hydrological and sediment behavioural models. The resulting system response, which reveals the nature of interactions between the driving factors, is then compared with climate projections originating from the UKCP09 assessment (UK Climate Projections 2009) to evaluate the likelihood of the range of projected outcomes. The results show that climate and land cover each exert an individual control on sediment transport. Their effects vary depending on the land use and on the level of projected climate change. The suspended sediment yield of the River Thames in its lowermost reach is expected to change by -4% (-16% to +13%, confidence interval, p = 0.95) under the A1FI emission scenario for the 2030s, although these figures could be substantially altered by an increase in extreme precipitation, which could raise the suspended sediment yield up to an additional +10%. A 70% increase in the extension of the arable land is projected to increase sediment yield by around 12% in the lowland reaches. A 50% reduction is projected to decrease sediment yield by around 13%.

What climate changes could be observed by two generations of Poles?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szwed, M.

2010-09-01

For many years, numerous scientific papers in different disciplines have been published on different aspects of the global warming. The issue of climate change and its impacts has become certainly a "fashionable" research area. In Poland, for example, the issue was tackled by one of the greatest hydro-climatological research projects, namely: "Extreme meteorological and hydrological events in Poland (the evaluation of forecasting events and their effects on human environment)". However, for several years, and certainly since 2007, when Al Gore, former U.S. vice-president, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) won the Nobel Peace Prize, this topic has started to be increasingly more frequently raised by the Polish media. The average Polish citizen increasingly more often learns from the press, radio and television about the global warming. There are also those skeptical of the climate change who loudly express their opinions in the media. Can the average Pole not get lost in the thicket of information? Can they refer to their own memory or the memory of their parents or grandparents on issues of climate change? How is the typical summer or winter perceived the previous generations? Is it possible to observe such changes without reference to extreme events? This article is to try to answer the question whether the average Pole could see climate change, most simply understood as changes in the thermal conditions and precipitations. If yes, then what seasons or months see the biggest changes. Which parts of the country witness the biggest changes? The starting point of the analysis are the 58-years time series of real monthly temperature and precipitation in the period of 1951-2008 for 20 stations across Poland. However, they will not be analyzed in more detail. In order to smooth the data sequences and thus to reject the short-term fluctuations, the long-term moving averages in different sequences (individual months, seasons and years) will be analyzed. The analysis of moving averages will help to find potential longer-term trends or cycles in the test time series. Trends will be detected based on parametric and nonparametric tests, such as linear regression and Mann-Kendall test. Finally, the current temperature and precipitation will be compared to the climate projections at the end of the 21st century. To this end, the climate models from the ENSEMBLES research project will be used. In the case of temperature, these will be C41RCA3 from Rossby Centre (Norrköping, Sweden); CLM from ETH (Zurich, Switzerland), KNMI-RACMO2 from the Royal National Meteorological Institute (De Bilt, the Netherlands), MPI-M-REMO from the Max Planck Institute (Hamburg, Germany); METO-HC from the Met Office's Hadley Centre (Exeter, UK), and RCA from the SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (Norrköping, Sweden). In the case of precipitation, only the MPI-M-REMO model will be used. The reason is the outcome of the validation of models for the territory of Poland (previously made by the author) which indicated that this model was the best fit for the Polish precipitation conditions.

Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savo, V.; Lepofsky, D.; Benner, J. P.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Bailey, J.; Lertzman, K.

2016-05-01

The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread (~70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies.

Monitoring the Impact of Climate Change on Soil Salinity in Agricultural Areas Using Ground and Satellite Sensors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in climatic patterns have had dramatic influence on agricultural areas worldwide, particularly in irrigated arid-zone agricultural areas subjected to recurring drought, such as California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV), or areas receiving above average rainfall for a decade or more, such as Minn...

Estimating the Impact and Spillover Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northern Ghana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botchway, E.

2016-12-01

In tropical regions of the world human-induced climate change is likely to impact negatively on crop yields. To investigate the impact of climate change and its spillover effect on mean and variance of crop yields in northern Ghana, the Just and Pope stochastic production function and the Spatial Durbin model were adopted. Surprisingly, the results suggest that both precipitation and average temperature have positive effects on mean crop yield during the wet season. Wet season average temperature has a significant spillover effect in the region, whereas precipitation during the wet season has only one significant spillover effect on maize yield. Wet season precipitation does not have a strong significant effect on crop yield despite the rainfed nature of agriculture in the region. Thus, even if there are losers and winners as a result of future climate change at the regional level, future crop yield would largely depend on future technological development in agriculture, which may improve yields over time despite the changing climate. We argue, therefore, that technical improvement in farm management such as improved seeds and fertilizers, conservation tillage and better pest control, may have a more significant role in increasing observed crop productivity levels over time. So investigating the relative importance of non-climatic factors on crop yield may shed more light on where appropriate interventions can help in improving crop yields. Climate change, also, needs to be urgently assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.

Environmental water demand assessment under climate change conditions.

PubMed

Sarzaeim, Parisa; Bozorg-Haddad, Omid; Fallah-Mehdipour, Elahe; Loáiciga, Hugo A

2017-07-01

Measures taken to cope with the possible effects of climate change on water resources management are key for the successful adaptation to such change. This work assesses the environmental water demand of the Karkheh river in the reach comprising Karkheh dam to the Hoor-al-Azim wetland, Iran, under climate change during the period 2010-2059. The assessment of the environmental demand applies (1) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and (2) downscaling methods. The first phase of this work projects temperature and rainfall in the period 2010-2059 under three RCPs and with two downscaling methods. Thus, six climatic scenarios are generated. The results showed that temperature and rainfall average would increase in the range of 1.7-5.2 and 1.9-9.2%, respectively. Subsequently, flows corresponding to the six different climatic scenarios are simulated with the unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation, and stream flow data (IHACRES) rainfall-runoff model and are input to the Karkheh reservoir. The simulation results indicated increases of 0.9-7.7% in the average flow under the six simulation scenarios during the period of analysis. The second phase of this paper's methodology determines the monthly minimum environmental water demands of the Karkheh river associated with the six simulation scenarios using a hydrological method. The determined environmental demands are compared with historical ones. The results show that the temporal variation of monthly environmental demand would change under climate change conditions. Furthermore, some climatic scenarios project environmental water demand larger than and some of them project less than the baseline one.

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

The contributions of climate and land cover impacts on streamflow in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shaochun; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Beldring, Stein

2017-04-01

Located in high latitudes, Norway experienced significant changes in climate in the last 115 years. The average temperature rises at an average rate of 0.09 °C/decade while the annual precipitation increased by ca. 16% from 1900 to 2014 with statistical significance. In the meantime, the standing forest timber volume has increased continuously and almost tripled by the year 2012. Both the changes in climate and land cover would directly affect the streamflow and the hydropower production in Norway, which accounts for about 98% of the total electricity production of the whole country. However, there is a lack of understanding of the contribution of these different drivers to changes in streamflow in Norway, although such knowledge provides important information for future changes in water availability. This paper aims to quantify the relative contribution of climate and land cover impacts on the mean annual and seasonal streamflow (including total, quick and base flow) using the hydrological model HBV for 56 natural catchments in Norway. The changes in forest extend and structure are considered as the major land cover changes in these catchments. The discharge data are split into two periods (1961 - 1988 and 1989 - 2015) as the reference and changing periods. The HBV model was firstly calibrated in the reference period for all catchment separately and the simulated discharge in the changing period was used to calculate the relative contributions. The results show that the climate change played a bigger role than land cover change on annual total, quick and base flows in 62%, 48% and 82% studied basins, respectively. The climate change is the dominant driver on streamflows in winter and spring in most basins, while the land use change affected more significantly on summer flows as well as the base flow in autumn. Finally, the resulted contribution will be compared with the changes in climate and forest characteristics as external validation.

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

PubMed Central

Lorenz, David J.; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950–2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850–2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity. PMID:27377537

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

PubMed

Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

2016-07-05

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

[Impacts of climate change on food production in Gansu: A review].

PubMed

Yang, Feng-ke; He, Bao-lin; Gao, Shi-ming

2015-03-01

The climate of Gansu turned to be overall warming-drying and partly warming-wetting since 1986. In contrast to that of 1960, the average annual temperature had raised by 1.1°C with the average annual precipitation decreased by 28 mm correspondingly, which made the arid region expanded southward by 50 km in 2010. Climate warming increased the growth period effective accumulated temperature of main food grain crops and lengthened the crop growth period. It changed crop maturity, crop disposition, cropping system and generally increased the cultivatable area and planting altitude above the sea level of major crops and expanded northward the multiple cropping system, which further resulted in expansion of autumn grain crop sown area, shrink of summer grain crop sown area, and replacement of strong winter early maturing varieties by weak winter middle late maturing varieties. It benefited the crop yield by increasing the use efficiency of photo-thermal resources. Warming-wetting climate increased the climate productivity of oasis crop while warming-drying weather decreased the climate productivity of rainfed crops, which were mostly determined by the precipitation regimes and water conditions. Any advanced technique that can increase precipitation use ratio and water use efficiency as well as improve and promote soil quality and fertility should be regarded as an effective countermeasure to increase food grain production under climate change in Gsansu. So, selecting and breeding new crop varieties with the characteristics of strong resistance, weak winter, middle-late mature and high water use efficiency, establishing new planting structure and cropping system that suitable to the precipitation and temperature features of changed climate, are the development direction of food grain production in Gansu to cope with the climate change.

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Joel D.; Lee, Mihye; Kinney, Patrick L.; Yang, Suijia; Mills, David; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Streeter, Richard; St. Juliana, Alexis; Peers, Jennifer;

Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.

2017-12-01

As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.

Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata).

PubMed

Lei, Juncheng; Chen, Lian; Li, Hong

2017-08-01

The golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, is one of the world's 100 most notorious invasive alien species. Knowledge about the critical climate variables that limit the global distribution range of the snail, as well as predictions of future species distributions under climate change, is very helpful for management of snail. In this study, the climatically suitable habitats for this kind of snail under current climate conditions were modeled by biomod2 and projected to eight future climate scenarios (2 time periods [2050s, 2080s] × 2 Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP8.5] × 2 atmospheric General Circulation Models [GCMs; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)]). The results suggest that the lowest temperature of coldest month is the critical climate variable to restrict the global distribution range of P. canaliculata. It is predicted that the climatically suitable habitats for P. canaliculata will increase by an average of 3.3% in 2050s and 3.8% in 2080s for the RCP2.6 scenario, while they increase by an average of 8.7% in 2050s and 10.3% in 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, climate change in the future may promote the global invasion of the invasive species. Therefore, it is necessary to take proactive measures to monitor and preclude the invasion of this species.

Climate change will restrict ponderosa pine forest regeneration in the 21st century in absence of disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrie, M. D.; Bradford, J. B.; Hubbard, R. M.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Andrews, C.

2016-12-01

The persistence of ponderosa pine forests and the ability for these forests to colonize new habitats in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports ponderosa pine regeneration through the demographic processes of seed production, germination and survival. Yet, the way that climate change may support or restrict the frequency of successful regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative, criteria-based framework to estimate ponderosa pine regeneration potential (RP: a metric from 0-1) in response to climate forcings and environmental conditions. We used the SOILWAT ecosystem water balance model to simulate drivers of air and soil temperature, evaporation and soil moisture availability for 47 ponderosa pine sites across the western United States, using meteorological data from 1910-2014, and projections from nine General Circulation Models and the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario for 2020-2099. Climate change simulations increased the success of early developmental stages of seed production and germination, and supported 49.7% higher RP in 2020-2059 compared to averages from 1910-2014. As temperatures increased in 2060-2099, survival scores decreased, and RP was reduced by 50.3% compared to 1910-2014. Although the frequency of years with high RP did not change in 2060-2099 (12% of years), the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58% of years. Thus, climate change will initially support higher RP and more favorable years in 2020-2059, yet will reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate regeneration support in 2060-2099. Forest regeneration is complex and not fully-understood, but our results suggest it is likely that climate change alone will instigate restrictions to the persistence and expansion of ponderosa pine in the 21st century.

Estimating the limits of adaptation from historical behaviour: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.

2014-12-01

The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in a number of economic sectors [1]. The main analysis presents projections of climate impacts with an assumption of "no adaptation". Yet, historically, when the climate imposed an economic cost upon society, adaptive responses were taken to minimise these costs. These adaptive behaviours, both autonomous and planned, can be expected to occur as climate impacts increase in the future. To understand the extent to which adaptation might decrease some of the worst impacts of climate change, we empirically estimate adaptive responses. We do this in three sectors considered in the analysis - crop yield, crime, and mortality - and estimate adaptive capacity in two steps. First, looking at changes in climate impacts through time, we identify a historical rate of adaptation. Second, spatial differences in climate impacts are then used to stratify regions into more adapted or less adapted based on climate averages. As these averages change across counties in the US, we allow each to become more adapted at the rate identified in step one. We are then able to estimate the residual damages, assuming that only the historical adaptive behaviours have taken place (fig 1). Importantly, we are unable to estimate any costs associated with these adaptations, nor are we able to estimate more novel (for example, new technological discoveries) or more disruptive (for example, migration) adaptive behaviours. However, an important insight is that historical adaptive behaviours may not be capable of reducing the worst impacts of climate change. The persistence of impacts in even the most exposed areas indicates that there are non-trivial costs associated with adaptation that will need to be met from other sources or through novel behavioural changes. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Schloss, Carrie A.; Nuñez, Tristan A.; Lawler, Joshua J.

2012-01-01

As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species will likely need to move to keep pace with projected changes in suitable climates. We compared these velocities with the velocities at which species are able to move as a function of dispersal distances and dispersal frequencies. Across the Western Hemisphere, on average, 9.2% of mammals at a given location will likely be unable to keep pace with climate change. In some places, up to 39% of mammals may be unable to track shifts in suitable climates. Eighty-seven percent of mammalian species are expected to experience reductions in range size and 20% of these range reductions will likely be due to limited dispersal abilities as opposed to reductions in the area of suitable climate. Because climate change will likely outpace the response capacity of many mammals, mammalian vulnerability to climate change may be more extensive than previously anticipated. PMID:22586104

Anthropogenic Climate Change in Asia: Key Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.

2009-12-01

The energy, agricultural, and water sectors in Asia, a vast continent that comprises more than half of the world's population, are crucially vulnerable to shifts in climate. The acceleration of economic development in Asia over the past few decades, the dependence of its huge agricultural economy on rainfall, and its growing energy demands have thrust climate change and its impacts squarely into important sectors of the Asian society. Further, it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over the Asian continent (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2007]; see Figure 1a). Asian megacities are already witnessing stresses in food, water, transportation, health, and air quality. The situation could become even worse with projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the 21st century, coupled with the likelihood that climate change will exacerbate extremes.

Climate Change in New York State Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 (Responding to Climate Change in New York State)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Solecki, William

2014-01-01

In its 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a greater than 95 percent chance that rising global average temperatures, observed since the mid-20th century, are primarily due to human activities. As had been predicted in the 1800s, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are now approximately 40 percent higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, have increased rapidly as well.

Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data.

PubMed

Dalsgaard, Lise; Astrup, Rasmus; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Borgen, Signe Kynding; Breidenbach, Johannes; Lange, Holger; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Liski, Jari

2016-01-01

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960-2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60-70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures.

Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data

PubMed Central

Dalsgaard, Lise; Astrup, Rasmus; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Borgen, Signe Kynding; Breidenbach, Johannes; Lange, Holger; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Liski, Jari

2016-01-01

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960–2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60–70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures. PMID:26901763

Arctic-nesting birds find physiological relief in the face of trophic constraints.

PubMed

McKinnon, Laura; Nol, Erica; Juillet, Cédric

2013-01-01

A climate-induced phenological mismatch between the timing of reproduction and the timing of food resource peaks is one of the key hypothesized effects of climate change on wildlife. Though supported as a mechanism of population decline in birds, few studies have investigated whether the same temperature increases that drive this mismatch have the potential to decrease energetic costs of growth and compensate for the potential negative effects of reduced food availability. We generated independent indices of climate and resource availability and quantified their effects on growth of Dunlin (Calidris alpina) chicks, in the sub-arctic tundra of Churchill, Manitoba during the summers of 2010-2011 and found that when resource availability was below average, above average growth could be maintained in the presence of increasing temperatures. These results provide evidence that chicks may find physiological relief from the trophic constraints hypothesized by climate change studies.

Climate change and zoonotic infections in the Russian Arctic

PubMed Central

Revich, Boris; Tokarevich, Nikolai; Parkinson, Alan J.

2012-01-01

Climate change in the Russian Arctic is more pronounced than in any other part of the country. Between 1955 and 2000, the annual average air temperature in the Russian North increased by 1.2°C. During the same period, the mean temperature of upper layer of permafrost increased by 3°C. Climate change in Russian Arctic increases the risks of the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. This review presents data on morbidity rates among people, domestic animals and wildlife in the Russian Arctic, focusing on the potential climate related emergence of such diseases as tick-borne encephalitis, tularemia, brucellosis, leptospirosis, rabies, and anthrax. PMID:22868189

Reconstruction of regional mean temperature for East Asia since 1900s and its uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, W.

2017-12-01

Regional average surface air temperature (SAT) is one of the key variables often used to investigate climate change. Unfortunately, because of the limited observations over East Asia, there were also some gaps in the observation data sampling for regional mean SAT analysis, which was important to estimate past climate change. In this study, the regional average temperature of East Asia since 1900s is calculated by the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)-based optimal interpolation (OA) method with considering the data errors. The results show that our estimate is more precise and robust than the results from simple average, which provides a better way for past climate reconstruction. In addition to the reconstructed regional average SAT anomaly time series, we also estimated uncertainties of reconstruction. The root mean square error (RMSE) results show that the the error decreases with respect to time, and are not sufficiently large to alter the conclusions on the persist warming in East Asia during twenty-first century. Moreover, the test of influence of data error on reconstruction clearly shows the sensitivity of reconstruction to the size of the data error.

How robust is the pre-1931 National Climatic Data Center—climate divisional dataset? Examples from Georgia and Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, Jason; Thompson, Clint; Keim, Barry D.

2015-04-01

The National Climatic Data Center's climate divisional dataset (CDD) is commonly used in climate change analyses. This dataset is a spatially continuous dataset for the conterminous USA from 1895 to the present. The CDD since 1931 is computed by averaging all available representative cooperative weather station data into a single monthly value for each of the 344 climate divisions of the conterminous USA, while pre-1931 data for climate divisions are derived from statewide averages using regression equations. This study examines the veracity of these pre-1931 data. All available Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) stations within each climate division in Georgia and Louisiana were averaged into a single monthly value for each month and each climate division from 1897 to 1930 to generate a divisional dataset (COOP DD), using similar methods to those used by the National Climatic Data Center to generate the post-1931 CDD. The reliability of the official CDD—derived from statewide averages—to produce temperature and precipitation means and trends prior to 1931 are then evaluated by comparing that dataset with the COOP DD with difference-of-means tests, correlations, and linear regression techniques. The CDD and the COOP DD are also compared to a divisional dataset derived from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) data (USHCN DD), with difference of means and correlation techniques, to demonstrate potential impacts of inhomogeneities within the CDD and the COOP DD. The statistical results, taken as a whole, not only indicate broad similarities between the CDD and COOP DD but also show that the CDD does not adequately portray pre-1931 temperature and precipitation in certain climate divisions within Georgia and Louisiana. In comparison with the USHCN DD, both the CDD and the COOP DD appear to be subject to biases that probably result from changing stations within climate divisions. As such, the CDD should be used judiciously for long-term studies of climate change, and past studies using the CDD should be evaluated in the context of these new findings.

Creating "Intelligent" Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Noel; Taylor, Patrick

2014-05-01

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is used to add value to individual model projections and construct a consensus projection. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, individual models reproduce certain climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. The intention is to produce improved ("intelligent") unequal-weight ensemble averages. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Several climate process metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument in combination with surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing the equal-weighted ensemble average and an ensemble weighted using the process-based metric. Additionally, this study investigates the dependence of the metric weighting scheme on the climate state using a combination of model simulations including a non-forced preindustrial control experiment, historical simulations, and several radiative forcing Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to advise better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Zhining; Williams, Allen; Huang, Ho-Chun; Caughey, Michael; Liang, Xin-Zhong

2007-04-01

The relative contributions of projected future emissions and climate changes to U.S. surface ozone concentrations are investigated focusing on California, the Midwest, the Northeast, and Texas. By 2050 regional average ozone concentrations increase by 2-15% under the IPCC SRES A1Fi (``dirty'') scenario, and decrease by 4-12% under the B1 (relatively ``clean'') scenario. However, the magnitudes of ozone changes differ significantly between major metropolitan and rural areas. These ozone changes are dominated by the emissions changes in 61% area of the contiguous U.S. under the B1 scenario, but are largely determined by the projected climate changes in 46% area under the A1Fi scenario. In the ozone responses to climate changes, the biogenic emissions changes contribute strongly over the Northeast, moderately in the Midwest, and negligibly in other regions.

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.;

Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

PubMed

MacLeod, D A; Morse, A P

2014-12-02

Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, D. A.; Morse, A. P.

2014-12-01

Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

PubMed

Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

2016-01-01

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study of phase clustering method for analyzing large volumes of meteorological observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volkov, Yu. V.; Krutikov, V. A.; Botygin, I. A.; Sherstnev, V. S.; Sherstneva, A. I.

2017-11-01

The article describes an iterative parallel phase grouping algorithm for temperature field classification. The algorithm is based on modified method of structure forming by using analytic signal. The developed method allows to solve tasks of climate classification as well as climatic zoning for any time or spatial scale. When used to surface temperature measurement series, the developed algorithm allows to find climatic structures with correlated changes of temperature field, to make conclusion on climate uniformity in a given area and to overview climate changes over time by analyzing offset in type groups. The information on climate type groups specific for selected geographical areas is expanded by genetic scheme of class distribution depending on change in mutual correlation level between ground temperature monthly average.

Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada.

PubMed

Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Du, Xinzhong; Wang, Junye

2017-12-01

Proper management of blue and green water resources is important for the sustainability of ecosystems and for the socio-economic development of river basins such as the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada. For this reason, quantifying climate change impacts on these water resources at a finer temporal and spatial scale is often necessary. In this study, we used a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess climate change impacts on fresh water resources, focusing explicitly on the impacts to both blue and green water. We used future climate data generated by the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) with a spatial resolution of 0.22°×0.22° (~25km) for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Results projected the climate of the ARB to be wetter by 21-34% and warmer by 2-5.4°C on an annual time scale. Consequently, the annual average blue and green water flow was projected to increase by 16-54% and 11-34%, respectively, depending on the region, future period, and emission scenario. Furthermore, the annual average green water storage at the boreal region was expected to increase by 30%, while the storage was projected to remain fairly stable or decrease in other regions, especially during the summer season. On average, the fresh water resources in the ARB are likely to increase in the future. However, evidence of temporal and spatial heterogeneity could pose many future challenges to water resource planners and managers. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions: case studies for Paris and Stockholm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Engardt, M.; Lacressonnière, G.; Vautard, R.; Andersson, C.

2015-10-01

Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations over Paris, France and Stockholm, Sweden were modeled at 4 and 1 \\unit{km} horizontal resolutions respectively for the present and 2050 periods employing decade-long simulations. We account for large-scale global climate change (RCP-4.5) and fine resolution bottom-up emission projections developed by local experts and quantify their impact on future pollutant concentrations. Moreover, we identify biases related to the implementation of regional scale emission projections over the study areas by comparing modeled pollutant concentrations between the fine and coarse scale simulations. We show that over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g., the city of Stockholm) the bias due to coarse emission inventory may be significant and lead to policy misclassification. Our results stress the need to better understand the mechanism of bias propagation across the modeling scales in order to design more successful local-scale strategies. We find that the impact of climate change is spatially homogeneous in both regions, implying strong regional influence. The climate benefit for ozone (daily average and maximum) is up to -5 % for Paris and -2 % for Stockholm city. The joined climate benefit on PM2.5 and PM10 in Paris is between -10 and -5 % while for Stockholm we observe mixed trends up to 3 % depending on season and size class. In Stockholm, emission mitigation leads to concentration reductions up to 15 % for daily average and maximum ozone and 20 % for PM and through a sensitivity analysis we show that this response is entirely due to changes in emissions at the regional scale. On the contrary, over the city of Paris (VOC-limited photochemical regime), local mitigation of NOx emissions increases future ozone concentrations due to ozone titration inhibition. This competing trend between the respective roles of emission and climate change, results in an increase in 2050 daily average ozone by 2.5 % in Paris. Climate and not emission change appears to be the most influential factor for maximum ozone concentration over the city of Paris, which may be particularly interesting in a health impact perspective.

Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.

PubMed

Wang, Wen J; He, Hong S; Thompson, Frank R; Spetich, Martin A; Fraser, Jacob S

2018-09-01

Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear -1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change over Leh (Ladakh), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Thayyen, R. J.

2018-01-01

Mountains over the world are considered as the indicators of climate change. The Himalayas are comprised of five ranges, viz., Pir Panjal, Great Himalayas, Zanskar, Ladhak, and Karakorum. The Ladakh region lies in the northernmost state of India, Jammu and Kashmir, in the Ladhak range. It has a unique cold-arid climate and lies immediately south of the Karakorum range. With scarce water resources, such regions show high sensitivity and vulnerability to the change in climate and need urgent attention. The objective of this study is to understand the climate of the Ladakh region and to characterize its changing climate. Using different temperature and precipitation datasets over Leh and surrounding regions, we statistically analyze the current trends of climatic patterns over the region. The study shows that the climate over Leh shows a warming trend with reduced precipitation in the current decade. The reduced average seasonal precipitation might also be associated with some indications of reducing number of days with higher precipitation amounts over the region.

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

2014-01-01

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

PubMed Central

Brown, Christopher J; Schoeman, David S; Sydeman, William J; Brander, Keith; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael; Duarte, Carlos M; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Poloczanska, Elvira; Venables, William; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.

Exploring adaptations to climate change with stakeholders: A participatory method to design grassland-based farming systems.

PubMed

Sautier, Marion; Piquet, Mathilde; Duru, Michel; Martin-Clouaire, Roger

2017-05-15

Research is expected to produce knowledge, methods and tools to enhance stakeholders' adaptive capacity by helping them to anticipate and cope with the effects of climate change at their own level. Farmers face substantial challenges from climate change, from changes in the average temperatures and the precipitation regime to an increased variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Such changes can have dramatic consequences for many types of agricultural production systems such as grassland-based livestock systems for which climate change influences the seasonality and productivity of fodder production. We present a participatory design method called FARMORE (FARM-Oriented REdesign) that allows farmers to design and evaluate adaptations of livestock systems to future climatic conditions. It explicitly considers three climate features in the design and evaluation processes: climate change, climate variability and the limited predictability of weather. FARMORE consists of a sequence of three workshops for which a pre-existing game-like platform was adapted. Various year-round forage production and animal feeding requirements must be assembled by participants with a computerized support system. In workshop 1, farmers aim to produce a configuration that satisfies an average future weather scenario. They refine or revise the previous configuration by considering a sample of the between-year variability of weather in workshop 2. In workshop 3, they explicitly take the limited predictability of weather into account. We present the practical aspects of the method based on four case studies involving twelve farmers from Aveyron (France), and illustrate it through an in-depth description of one of these case studies with three dairy farmers. The case studies shows and discusses how workshop sequencing (1) supports a design process that progressively accommodates complexity of real management contexts by enlarging considerations of climate change to climate variability and low weather predictability, and (2) increases the credibility and salience of the design method. Further enhancements of the method are outlined, especially the selection of pertinent weather scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electricity Consumption Risk Map - The use of Urban Climate Mapping for smarter analysis: Case study for Birmingham, UK.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antunes Azevedo, Juliana; Burghardt, René; Chapman, Lee; Katzchner, Lutz; Muller, Catherine L.

2015-04-01

Climate is a key driving factor in energy consumption. However, income, vegetation, building mass structure, topography also impact on the amount of energy consumption. In a changing climate, increased temperatures are likely to lead to increased electricity consumption, affecting demand, distribution and generation. Furthermore, as the world population becomes more urbanized, increasing numbers of people will need to deal with not only increased temperatures from climate change, but also from the unintentional modification of the urban climate in the form of urban heat islands. Hence, climate and climate change needs to be taken into account for future urban planning aspects to increase the climate and energy resilience of the community and decrease the future social and economic costs. Geographical Information Systems provide a means to create urban climate maps as part of the urban planning process. Geostatistical analyses linking these maps with demographic and social data, enables a geo-statistical analysis to identify linkages to high-risk groups of the community and vulnerable areas of town and cities. Presently, the climatope classification is oriented towards thermal aspects and the ventilation quality (roughness) of the urban areas but can also be adapted to take into account other structural "environmental factors". This study aims to use the climatope approach to predict areas of potential high electricity consumption in Birmingham, UK. Several datasets were used to produce an average surface temperature map, vegetation map, land use map, topography map, building height map, built-up area roughness calculations, an average air temperature map and a domestic electricity consumption map. From the correlations obtained between the layers it is possible to average the importance of each factor and create a map for domestic electricity consumption to understand the influence of environmental aspects on spatial energy consumption. Based on these results city planners and local authorities can guide their directives and policies towards electricity consumption, demand, generation and distribution.

Cloudy Windows: What GCM Ensembles, Reanalyses and Observations Tell Us About Uncertainty in Greenland's Future Climate and Surface Melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reusch, D. B.

2016-12-01

Any analysis that wants to use a GCM-based scenario of future climate benefits from knowing how much uncertainty the GCM's inherent variability adds to the development of climate change predictions. This is extra relevant in the polar regions due to the potential of global impacts (e.g., sea level rise) from local (ice sheet) climate changes such as more frequent/intense surface melting. High-resolution, regional-scale models using GCMs for boundary/initial conditions in future scenarios inherit a measure of GCM-derived externally-driven uncertainty. We investigate these uncertainties for the Greenland ice sheet using the 30-member CESM1.0-CAM5-BGC Large Ensemble (CESMLE) for recent (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100, RCP 8.5) decades. Recent simulations are skill-tested against the ERA-Interim reanalysis and AWS observations with results informing future scenarios. We focus on key variables influencing surface melting through decadal climatologies, nonlinear analysis of variability with self-organizing maps (SOMs), regional-scale modeling (Polar WRF), and simple melt models. Relative to the ensemble average, spatially averaged climatological July temperature anomalies over a Greenland ice-sheet/ocean domain are mostly between +/- 0.2 °C. The spatial average hides larger local anomalies of up to +/- 2 °C. The ensemble average itself is 2 °C cooler than ERA-Interim. SOMs extend our diagnostics by providing a concise, objective summary of model variability as a set of generalized patterns. For CESMLE, the SOM patterns summarize the variability of multiple realizations of climate. Changes in pattern frequency by ensemble member show the influence of initial conditions. For example, basic statistical analysis of pattern frequency yields interquartile ranges of 2-4% for individual patterns across the ensemble. In climate terms, this tells us about climate state variability through the range of the ensemble, a potentially significant source of melt-prediction uncertainty. SOMs can also capture the different trajectories of climate due to intramodel variability over time. Polar WRF provides higher resolution regional modeling with improved, polar-centric model physics. Simple melt models allow us to characterize impacts of the upstream uncertainties on estimates of surface melting.

Projections of European summer tourism demand at a +2 degrees warmer climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Jacob, Daniela

2015-04-01

Tourism is a billion euros industry for Europe and especially for the southern countries for which summer tourism is an important contribution to their GDP. It is highly dependent on the climate and any future changes will alter the favorability of European destinations. The impact of a potential global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2 degrees on European tourism was investigated in the frame of IMPACT2C FP7 project. Climate information from four ENSEMBLES and five Euro-CORDEX RCMs were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) under the A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The monthly averages of the historical TCI estimates were correlated to the recorded monthly averages of overnight stays for all considered NUTS3 regions in Europe. The correlation proved to be significantly high for the majority of these regions with higher values for the European South, while the lowest correlation was attained for Sweden Denmark and Austria. The correlation estimates was then used to provide information about the change in tourism activity due to changes in the future climate favorability through the TCI. The results show that for the May to October "summer tourism" season, and under +1.5 and +2 degrees climate the potential overnight stays are projected to increase in average in almost the entire European domain, except Cyprus which exhibits a consistent decrease, robust across all scenarios. In contrast, for the peak of the summer season between June and August, it is projected that the European south will potentially exhibit decrease in the overnight stays to as high as 20% and for some cases to even higher than 30% (Greece). Key strength of the results are the correlation of measured tourism indicators to a conceptual index, which gives the ability to quantify the change in the tourism indicator, rather than investigating the coarser concept of climate risk.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula.

PubMed

Koo, Kyung Ah; Kong, Woo-Seok; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Hopkinson, Charles S; Lee, Joon Ho

2015-01-01

Climate change has caused shifts in species' ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula

PubMed Central

Koo, Kyung Ah; Kong, Woo-Seok; Nibbelink, Nathan P.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Lee, Joon Ho

2015-01-01

Climate change has caused shifts in species’ ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula. PMID:26262755

Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change.

PubMed

Kelly, Anne E; Goulden, Michael L

2008-08-19

A change in climate would be expected to shift plant distribution as species expand in newly favorable areas and decline in increasingly hostile locations. We compared surveys of plant cover that were made in 1977 and 2006-2007 along a 2,314-m elevation gradient in Southern California's Santa Rosa Mountains. Southern California's climate warmed at the surface, the precipitation variability increased, and the amount of snow decreased during the 30-year period preceding the second survey. We found that the average elevation of the dominant plant species rose by approximately 65 m between the surveys. This shift cannot be attributed to changes in air pollution or fire frequency and appears to be a consequence of changes in regional climate.

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

PubMed

Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

2018-02-27

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Planning for climate change: the need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

PubMed Central

Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

2016-01-01

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems.

PubMed

Guiot, Joel; Cramer, Wolfgang

2016-10-28

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Index-based framework for assessing climate change impact on wetlands in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Keeffe, Joanna; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Utratna, Marta; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Okruszko, Tomasz

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to impact the water cycle through changing the precipitation levels, river streamflows, soil moisture dynamics and therefore pose a threat to groundwater and surface-water fed wetlands and their biodiversity. We examined the past trends and future impacts of climate change on streamflow and soil water content. Simulation results from 1971 to 2000 (historical period) and from 2021 to 2100 (future period) were obtained with the use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Hydrological modelling was driven by a set of nine EUROCORDEX Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP's) of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories: 4.5 and 8.5. A special focus was made on water dependent habitats within the Special Areas of Conservation (SAC's) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. A habitat assessment was carried out to distinguish groundwater and surface water fed wetlands. By establishing threshold values of streamflow at bankfull flow we were able to identify flood events. Changes in frequency of the floods informed about the alteration to the water supply for wetlands reliant on inundation. The groundwater-fed wetlands were assessed on the basis of the soil water content. The model outputs were used to develop indices which were calculated for the climate change scenarios. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil water content and streamflow dynamics with average annual precipitation showed largely consistent patterns. The developed indicators are sensitive to projected changes in hydrologic regime in the conditions of changing climate. The results show influence of climate change on floodplain and groundwater-fed wetlands and show the number and kind of wetlands threatened in different regions of Poland. SAC's will play an important role of buffers and water regulators as soil water content in SAC's is projected to be higher than average for the future scenarios.

Influence of long term climate change on net infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Alan I.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Hevesi, Joseph A.

1993-01-01

Net infiltration and recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high level nuclear waste repository, are determined both by the rock properties and past and future changes in climate. A 1-dimensional model was constructed to represent a borehole being drilled through the unsaturated zone. The rock properties were matched to the lithologies expected to be encountered in the borehole. As current paleoclimate theory assumes that 18O increases with wetter and cooler global climates, a past climate scenario, built on depletion of 18O from ocean sediments was used as a basis for climate change over the past 700,000 years. The climate change was simulated by assigning net infiltration values as a linear function of 8O. Assuming the rock properties, lithologies and climate scenarios are correct, simulations indicated that Yucca Mountain is not in steady state equilibrium at the surface (250 meters. Based on the cyclic climate inputs, the near surface is currently in a long term drying trend (for the last 3,000 years) yet recharge into the water table is continuing to occur at an average rate equivalent to the average input rate of the climate model, indicating that conditions at depth are damped out over very long time periods. The Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units, positioned between the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring welded Tuff Members, do not appear to act as capillary barrier and therefore would not perch water. The low porosity vitric caprock and basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member, however, act as restrictive layers. The higher porosity rock directly above the caprock reduces the potential for the caprock to perch water leaving the basal vitrophyre as the most likely location for perched water to develop.

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - impacts to the Pacific Coast

Treesearch

Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

2012-01-01

The Pacific Coast is an area of incredible biodiversity and diverse landscapes that are subject to a range of effects as regional climates shift. Changes that have already been observed within this bioregion include warmer average temperatures, earlier runoff season, rising sea levels, coastal erosion, species migration, and a longer growing season. In the next century...

[Evolution of the climate change concept and its impact in the public health of Peru].

PubMed

Sánchez Zavaleta, Carlos A

2016-03-01

The term "climate change" is not a new concept but its impact on public health is under constant review. We know that climate has already changed and will continue to change for centuries with the rise in average global temperature, and the associated rise in sea level. This fact makes mitigation efforts relevant only in the very long term and for generations of humans whose parents have not yet been born. When we talk about public health in the context of climate change, we are talking about adaptation. In the present, countries that are currently the most affected by climate change are precisely countries like Peru, without a significant carbon footprint at the global level but that are highly sensitive to the effects of climate. Without reliable climate projections, the health impact of climate change can be uncertain and complicated. Nevertheless, at the local level, every district can identify its vulnerabilities and define priorities to protect the health of its population. There are, and it can also be developed, environmental health indicators that can help monitor how well we are adapting and how prepared we are for changes in the climate. Adaptation to climate change implies improving living conditions, enhancing epidemiological surveillance systems and extending access to healthcare. The fight against the effects of climate change in public health is a fight against poverty and inequality, and that is nothing new in Peru.

The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China.

PubMed

Huang, Qunfang; Lu, Yuqi

2015-07-27

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI) effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime) and maximal (daytime) air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957-2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p < 0.05). Significantly positive correlations are found between the urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p < 0.001). The average warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming.

The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China

PubMed Central

Huang, Qunfang; Lu, Yuqi

2015-01-01

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI) effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime) and maximal (daytime) air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957–2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p < 0.05). Significantly positive correlations are found between the urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p < 0.001). The average warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming. PMID:26225986

Impact of future climate change on wheat production in relation to plant-available water capacity in a semiaridenvironment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yanmin; Liu, De Li; Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Zuo, Heping; Yang, Yonghui

2014-02-01

Conceptions encompassing climate change are irreversible rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, increased temperature, and changes in rainfall both in spatial- and temporal-scales worldwide. This will have a major impact on wheat production, particularly if crops are frequently exposed to a sequence, frequency, and intensity of specific weather events like high temperature during growth period. However, the process of wheat response to climate change is complex and compounded by interactions among atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variables, soil, nutrition, and agronomic management. In this study, we use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model, driven by statistically downscaled climate projections of 18 global circulation models (GCMs) under the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 CO2 emission scenario to examine impact on future wheat yields across key wheat growing regions considering different soil types in New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. The response of wheat yield, yield components, and phenology vary across sites and soil types, but yield is closely related to plant available water capacity (PAWC). Results show a decreasing yield trend during the period of 2021-2040 compared to the baseline period of 1961-1990. Across different wheat-growing regions in NSW, grain yield difference in the future period (2021-2040) over the baseline (1961-1990) varies from +3.4 to -14.7 %, and in most sites, grain number is decreased, while grain size is increased in future climate. Reduction of wheat yield is mainly due to shorter growth duration, where average flowering and maturing time are advanced by an average of 11 and 12 days, respectively. In general, larger negative impacts of climate change are exhibited in those sites with higher PAWC. Current wheat cultivars with shorter growing season properties are viable in the future climate, but breading for early sowing wheat varieties with longer growing duration will be a desirable adaptation strategy for mitigating the impact of changing climate on wheat yield.

[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. II. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in Southwest China].

PubMed

Dai, Shu-Wei; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Zhao, Meng; Li, Yong; Wang, Wen-Feng; Liu, Zhi-Juan

2011-02-01

Based on the 1961-2007 ground observation data from 88 meteorological stations in Southwest China, and by using statistical methods and GIS software, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in this region in the whole year and during temperature-defined growth period. In 1961-2007, the annual mean temperature in the region showed an increasing trend, with the increment averaged 0.18 degrees C x (10 a)(-1). The > or = 10 degrees C and > or = 15 degrees C accumulated temperature during temperature-defined growth period also showed an increasing trend, with the increment averaged 55.3 degrees C x d x (10 a)(-1) and 37 degrees C x d x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual sunshine hours decreased gradually from west to east, and the decreasing trend was more significant in eastern than in western region. The sunshine hours during temperature-defined growth period showed an overall increasing trend, and the spatial difference was great. The precipitation resource had an overall decrease, with the decrement in whole year and during temperature-defined growth period averaged 10 mm x (10 a)(-1) and 8 mm x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual reference crop evapotranspiration generally decreased, but the decrement was less than that of annual precipitation. The reference crop evapotranspiration during temperature-defined growth period within about 53% meteorological stations decreased.

Community- and population-level changes in diatom size structure in a subarctic lake over the last two centuries

PubMed Central

Kerrigan, Elizabeth A.; Irwin, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Climate change over the last two centuries has been associated with significant shifts in diatom community structure in lakes from the high arctic to temperate latitudes. To test the hypotheses that recent climate warming selects for species of smaller size within communities and a decrease in the average size of species within populations, we quantified the size of individual diatom valves from 10 depths in a sediment core covering the last ∼200 years from a pristine subarctic lake. Over the last ∼200 years, changes in the relative abundance of species of different average size and changes in the average valve size of populations of species contribute equally to the changes in community size structure, but are often opposite in sign, compensating for one another and moderating temporal changes in community size structure. In the surface sediments that correspond to the recent decades when air temperatures have warmed, the mean size of valves in the diatom community has significantly decreased due to an increase in the proportion of smaller-sized planktonic diatom species. PMID:26157637

Sensitivity of Ocean Chemistry and Oxygen Change to the Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, L.; Wang, S.; Zheng, M.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

With increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. In particular, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would affect the projection of ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To examine the effect of climate change on ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry, we used an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform simulations that are driven by atmospheric CO2 concentration pathway of RCP 8.5 with climate sensitivity varying from 0.0°C to 4.5 °C. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. Our simulations show that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude, to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D; Galbraith, David R; Moghim, Sanaz; Levine, Naomi M; Bras, Rafael L; Coe, Michael T; Costa, Marcos H; Malhi, Yadvinder; Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; McKnight, Shawna; Wang, Jingfeng; Moorcroft, Paul R

2015-02-20

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO 2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO 2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO 2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO 2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

PubMed

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C.; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18–20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts. PMID:26177097

Active Climate Stabilization: Practical Physics-Based Approaches to Prevention of Climate Change

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Teller, E.; Hyde, T.; Wood, L.

2002-04-18

We offer a case for active technical management of the radiative forcing of the temperatures of the Earth's fluid envelopes, rather than administrative management of atmospheric greenhouse gas inputs, in order to stabilize both the global- and time-averaged climate and its mesoscale features. We suggest that active management of radiative forcing entails negligible--indeed, likely strongly negative--economic costs and environmental impacts, and thus best complies with the pertinent mandate of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We propose that such approaches be swiftly evaluated in sub-scale in the course of an intensive international program.

Sensitivity of ground - water recharge estimates to climate variability and change, Columbia Plateau, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, John J.

1992-01-01

The sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates was investigated for the semiarid Ellensburg basin, located on the Columbia Plateau, Washington, to historic and projected climatic regimes. Recharge was estimated for predevelopment and current (1980s) land use conditions using a daily energy-soil-water balance model. A synthetic daily weather generator was used to simulate lengthy sequences with parameters estimated from subsets of the historical record that were unusually wet and unusually dry. Comparison of recharge estimates corresponding to relatively wet and dry periods showed that recharge for predevelopment land use varies considerably within the range of climatic conditions observed in the 87-year historical observation period. Recharge variations for present land use conditions were less sensitive to the same range of historical climatic conditions because of irrigation. The estimated recharge based on the 87-year historical climatology was compared with adjustments to the historical precipitation and temperature records for the same record to reflect CO2-doubling climates as projected by general circulation models (GCMs). Two GCM scenarios were considered: an average of conditions for three different GCMs with CO2 doubling, and a most severe “maximum” case. For the average GCM scenario, predevelopment recharge increased, and current recharge decreased. Also considered was the sensitivity of recharge to the variability of climate within the historical and adjusted historical records. Predevelopment and current recharge were less and more sensitive, respectively, to the climate variability for the average GCM scenario as compared to the variability within the historical record. For the maximum GCM scenario, recharge for both predevelopment and current land use decreased, and the sensitivity to the CO2-related climate change was larger than sensitivity to the variability in the historical and adjusted historical climate records.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

2016-10-18

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Park Williams, A.

2016-10-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ˜55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Climate change amplifies gross nitrogen turnover in montane grasslands of Central Europe in both summer and winter seasons.

PubMed

Wang, Changhui; Chen, Zhe; Unteregelsbacher, Sebastian; Lu, Haiyan; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Gasche, Rainer; Kolar, Allison; Schloter, Michael; Kiese, Ralf; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Dannenmann, Michael

2016-09-01

The carbon- and nitrogen-rich soils of montane grasslands are exposed to above-average warming and to altered precipitation patterns as a result of global change. To investigate the consequences of climatic change for soil nitrogen turnover, we translocated intact plant-soil mesocosms along an elevational gradient, resulting in an increase of the mean annual temperature by approx. 2 °C while decreasing precipitation from approx. 1500 to 1000 mm. Following three years of equilibration, we monitored the dynamics of gross nitrogen turnover and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA) in soils over an entire year. Gross nitrogen turnover and gene levels of AOB and AOA showed pronounced seasonal dynamics. Both summer and winter periods equally contributed to cumulative annual N turnover. However, highest gross N turnover and abundance of ammonia oxidizers were observed in frozen soil of the climate change site, likely due to physical liberation of organic substrates and their rapid turnover in the unfrozen soil water film. This effect was not observed at the control site, where soil freezing did not occur due to a significant insulating snowpack. Climate change conditions accelerated gross nitrogen mineralization by 250% on average. Increased N mineralization significantly stimulated gross nitrification by AOB rather than by AOA. However, climate change impacts were restricted to the 2-6 cm topsoil and rarely occurred at 12-16 cm depth, where generally much lower N turnover was observed. Our study shows that significant mineralization pulses occur under changing climate, which is likely to result in soil organic matter losses with their associated negative impacts on key soil functions. We also show that N cycling processes in frozen soil can be hot moments for N turnover and thus are of paramount importance for understanding seasonal patterns, annual sum of N turnover and possible climate change feedbacks. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Fodor, Nándor; Foskolos, Andreas; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Moorby, Jon M; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

Evaluating the Regional Impact of Aircraft Emissions on Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Khodayari, A.

2017-12-01

Unlike other transportation sectors where pollutant emissions usually occur only near the Earth's surface, aviation emissions happen primarily at altitudes of 8-12 km above the surface, impacting the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS). At these altitudes, the pollutants can contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentration and to the formation of secondary aerosols, which can have an impact on climate change. This study examines the regional effects on climate forcing resulting from aviation emissions. Most previous studies have focused on aviation effects on climate using globally-averaged metric values, which do not give information about the spatial variability of the effects. While aviation emissions have significant spatial variability in the sign and magnitude of response, the strength of regional effects is hidden due to the global averaging of climate change effects. In this study, the chemistry-climate Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-chem5) is used in analyses to examine the regional climate effects based on 4 different latitude bands (90oS-28oS, 28oS-28oN, 28oN-60oN, 60oN-90oN) and 3 regions (contiguous United States, Europe and East Asia). The most regionally important aviation emissions are short-lived species, such as black carbon (BC) and sulfates, emitted from aircraft directly, and O3-short induced by NOx emission indirectly. The regionality of these short-lived impacts are explored and compared to the globally-averaged effects. The results indicate that BC and sulfates have more regionality than O3. The radiative forcings for short-lived agents over the United States, Europe and East Asia are around 2-4 times of their corresponding global values. The results also suggest that the climate forcings will be the most underestimated over the United States when using globally-averaged values without considering regional heterogeneity.

Testing for the linearity of responses to multiple anthropogenic climate forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forest, C. E.; Stone, P. H.; Sokolov, A. P.

2001-12-01

To test whether climate forcings are additive, we compare climate model simulations in which anthropogenic forcings are applied individually and in combination. Tests are performed with different values for climate system properties (climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean) as well as for different strengths of the net aerosol forcing, thereby testing for the dependence of linearity on these properties. The MIT 2D Land-Ocean Climate Model used in this study consists of a zonally averaged statistical-dynamical atmospheric model coupled to a mixed-layer Q-flux ocean model, with heat anomalies diffused into the deep ocean. Following our previous studies, the anthropogenic forcings are the changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases (1860-1995), sulfate aerosol (1860-1995), and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone (1979-1995). The sulfate aerosol forcing is applied as a surface albedo change. For an aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m2 and an effective ocean diffusitivity of 2.5 cm2/s, the nonlinearity of the response of global-mean surface temperatures to the combined forcing shows a strong dependence on climate sensitivity. The fractional change in decadal averages ([(Δ TG + Δ TS + Δ TO) - Δ TGSO ]/ Δ TGSO) for the 1986-1995 period compared to pre-industrial times are 0.43, 0.90, and 1.08 with climate sensitivities of 3.0, 4.5, and 6.2 oC, respectively. The values of Δ TGSO for these three cases are 0.52, 0.62, and 0.76 oC. The dependence of linearity on climate system properties, the role of climate system feedbacks, and the implications for the detection of climate system's response to individual forcings will be presented. Details of the model and forcings can be found at http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/.

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

2018-02-01

Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

Analysis of climate change impact on runoff and sediment delivery in a Great Lake watershed using SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, S.; Bhattarai, R.; Cooke, R.

2011-12-01

The green house gas loading of the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid 19th century which threatens to dramatically change the earth's climate in the 21st Century. Scientific evidences show that earth's global average surface temperature has risen some 0.75°C (1.3°F) since 1850. Third Assessment Report (TAR) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that human activities have increased the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which will result in a warming world and other changes in the climate. TAR has projected an increase in globally average surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8 °C and an increase in precipitation of 5 to 20 % over the period of 1990 to 2100. Assuming a global temperature increase of between 2.8 and 5.2 °C, it was estimated a 7-15% increase in global evaporation and precipitation rates. Global warming and subsequent climate change could raise sea level by several tens of centimeters in the next fifty years. Such a rise may erode beaches, worsen coastal flooding and threaten water quality in estuaries and aquifers. With the climate already changing and further change in climate highly likely to happen, study of impact of climate and the adaptation is a necessary component of any response to climate change. The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on runoff and sediment delivery in a Great Lake watershed located in Northern Ohio. Maumee River watershed is predominantly an agricultural watershed with an area of 6330 sq mile and drains to Lake Erie. Agricultural area covers about 89.9% of the watershed while wooded area covers 7.3%, 1.2% is urban area and other land uses account for 1.6%. Water Quality Laboratory, Heidelberg College has monitored the watershed for last 25 years. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used for both water quantity and water quality simulations for past and future scenarios. SWAT is a continuous, long-term watershed scale simulation model which operates on a daily time step. The model is physically based, computationally efficient, and capable of assessing the impact of climate and watershed management on water, sediment, and nutrient/chemical yields. SWAT model has been calibrated for flow and sediment yield from 1982 to 2002 for the watershed. The calibrated model will be used to predict future flow and sediment delivery scenarios due to climate change (increase in temperature).

Public Health Nurses’ Knowledge and Attitudes Regarding Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chaudry, Rosemary V.; Mac Crawford, John

2011-01-01

Background: Climate change affects human health, and health departments are urged to act to reduce the severity of these impacts. Yet little is known about the perspective of public health nurses—the largest component of the public health workforce—regarding their roles in addressing health impacts of climate change. Objectives: We determined the knowledge and attitudes of public health nurses concerning climate change and the role of public health nursing in divisions of health departments in addressing health-related impacts of climate change. Differences by demographic subgroups were explored. Methods: An online survey was distributed to nursing directors of U.S. health departments (n = 786) with Internet staff directories. Results: Respondents (n = 176) were primarily female, white public health nursing administrators with ≥ 5 years of experience. Approximately equal percentages of respondents self-identified as having moderate, conservative, and liberal political views. Most agreed that the earth has experienced climate change and that climate change is somewhat controllable. Respondents identified an average of 5 of the 12 listed health-related impacts of climate change, but the modal response was zero impact. Public health nursing was perceived as having responsibility to address health-related impacts of climate change but lacking the ability to address these impacts. Conclusions: Public health nurses view the environment as under threat and see a role for nursing divisions in addressing health effects of climate change. However, they recognize the limited resources and personnel available to devote to this endeavor. PMID:22128069

Meta-analysis of climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Jerry; Daccache, Andre; Hess, Tim; Haro, David

2016-11-01

Future changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 41 original publications from an initial screening of 1748 studies. Our approach adopted an established SR procedure developed by the Centre for Evidence Based Conservation constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature searches, data extraction, meta-analysis and synthesis. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, surprisingly, no comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Based on the reported results (n = 729) we show that the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is +8%. For wheat and sugar beet, average yield changes of +14% and +15% are projected, respectively. There were strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+14%) and more variable compared to central (+6%) and southern (+5) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (-11%). Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. The implications for supporting climate adaptation policy and informing climate impacts crop science research in Europe are discussed.

Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnell, Peter

2016-04-01

It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Oak pollen season length for moderate (RCP4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) are estimated through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE), driven by epidemiologically-derived concentration-response relationships. Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen.

Impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Di; Wang, Jing; Dai, Tong; Feng, Liping; Zhang, Jianping; Pan, Xuebiao; Pan, Zhihua

2014-12-01

The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China (SWC) are investigated in this paper. We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic, light-temperature, and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC, by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method. During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010, minimum temperature increased by 0.20°C per decade ( p < 0.01) across SWC. The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province. Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day-1 per decade ( p < 0.01) and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC. Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha-1 per decade ( p < 0.05). Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased ( p < 0.05) in the northeast of SWC, whereas they increased ( p < 0.05) in the southwest of SWC. The gap between light-temperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha-1, with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC. Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24% of the light-temperature potential productivity, suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas. In particular, the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC. The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries.

PubMed

Bathiany, Sebastian; Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten; Lenton, Timothy M

2018-05-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C -1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

PubMed Central

Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten

2018-01-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate. PMID:29732409

North by north-west: climate change and directions of density shifts in birds.

PubMed

Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Virkkala, Raimo

2016-03-01

There is increasing evidence that climate change shifts species distributions towards poles and mountain tops. However, most studies are based on presence-absence data, and either abundance or the observation effort has rarely been measured. In addition, hardly any studies have investigated the direction of shifts and factors affecting them. Here, we show using count data on a 1000 km south-north gradient in Finland, that between 1970-1989 and 2000-2012, 128 bird species shifted their densities, on average, 37 km towards the north north-east. The species-specific directions of the shifts in density were significantly explained by migration behaviour and habitat type. Although the temperatures have also moved on average towards the north north-east (186 km), the species-specific directions of the shifts in density and temperature did not correlate due to high variation in density shifts. Findings highlight that climate change is unlikely the only driver of the direction of species density shifts, but species-specific characteristics and human land-use practices are also influencing the direction. Furthermore, the alarming results show that former climatic conditions in the north-west corner of Finland have already moved out of the country. This highlights the need for an international approach in research and conservation actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projected avifaunal responses to climate change across the U.S. National Park System.

PubMed

Wu, Joanna X; Wilsey, Chad B; Taylor, Lotem; Schuurman, Gregor W

2018-01-01

Birds in U.S. national parks find strong protection from many longstanding and pervasive threats, but remain highly exposed to effects of ongoing climate change. To understand how climate change is likely to alter bird communities in parks, we used species distribution models relating North American Breeding Bird Survey (summer) and Audubon Christmas Bird Count (winter) observations to climate data from the early 2000s and projected to 2041-2070 (hereafter, mid-century) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. We analyzed climate suitability projections over time for 513 species across 274 national parks, classifying them as improving, worsening, stable, potential colonization, and potential extirpation. U.S. national parks are projected to become increasingly important for birds in the coming decades as potential colonizations exceed extirpations in 62-100% of parks, with an average ratio of potential colonizations to extirpations of 4.1 in winter and 1.4 in summer under RCP8.5. Average species turnover is 23% in both summer and winter under RCP8.5. Species turnover (Bray-Curtis) and potential colonization and extirpation rates are positively correlated with latitude in the contiguous 48 states. Parks in the Midwest and Northeast are expected to see particularly high rates of change. All patterns are more extreme under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6. Based on the ratio of potential colonization and extirpation, parks were classified into overall trend groups associated with specific climate-informed conservation strategies. Substantial change to bird and ecological communities is anticipated in coming decades, and current thinking suggests managing towards a forward-looking concept of ecological integrity that accepts change and novel ecological conditions, rather than focusing management goals exclusively on maintaining or restoring a static set of historical conditions.

The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

PubMed

Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

2015-08-01

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2015-01-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Basin average annual ET was found to be sensitive to changes in CO2 concentration and temperature, while total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were sensitive to changes in precipitation. The basin hydrological components were predicted to increase with seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change scenarios. Strong increasing trends were predicted for total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, indicating exacerbation of flooding potential during August–October, but strong decreasing trends were predicted, indicating exacerbation of drought potential during May–July of the 21st century. The model has potential to facilitate strategic decision making through scenario generation integrating climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation policies to ensure optimized allocation of water resources under a variable and changing climate.

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

PubMed

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

2017-05-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability.

PubMed

Moore, Andrew D; Ghahramani, Afshin

2013-05-01

Broadacre livestock production is a major but highly diverse component of agriculture in Australia that will be significantly exposed to predicted changes in climate over coming decades. We used the GRAZPLAN simulation models to assess the impacts of climate change under the SRES A2 scenario across southern Australia. Climate change impacts were examined across space (25 representative locations) and time (1970-99, 2030, 2050 and 2070 climate) for each of five livestock enterprises. Climate projection uncertainty was considered by analysing projections from four global circulation models (GCMs). Livestock production scenarios were compared at their profit-maximizing stocking rate, constrained to ensure that risks of soil erosion were acceptable. Impacts on net primary productivity (ANPP) varied widely between GCM projections; the average declines from historical climate were 9% in 2030, 7% in 2050 and 14% in 2070. Declines in ANPP were larger at lower-rainfall locations. Sensitivity of ANPP to changes in rainfall ranged from 0.4 to 1.7, to temperature increase from -0.15 to +0.07 °C(-1) and to CO2 increase from 0.11 to 0.32. At most locations the dry summer period lengthened, exacerbating the greater erosion risk due to lower ANPP. Transpiration efficiency of pastures increased by 6-25%, but the proportion of ANPP that could safely be consumed by livestock fell sharply so that operating profit (at constant prices) fell by an average of 27% in 2030, 32% in 2050 and 48% in 2070. This amplification of ANPP reductions into larger profitability declines is likely to generalize to other extensive livestock systems. Profit declines were most marked at drier locations, with operating losses expected at 9 of the 25 locations by 2070. Differences between livestock enterprises were smaller than differences between locations and dates. Future research into climate change impacts on Australian livestock production needs to emphasise the dry margin of the cereal-livestock zone. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

2015-04-01

Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the average potential of future hydropower production; it will likely make hydropower more profitable. Yet, the uncertainty in climate change projections remains large and risks are significant, adaptation strategies should ideally consider a worst case scenario to ensure robust power generation. Overall a diversified power generation portfolio, anchored in hydropower and supported by other renewables and fossil fuel-based energy sources, is the best solution for Tanzania

Historical instrumental climate data for Australia - quality and utility for palaeoclimatic studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Neville; Collins, Dean; Trewin, Blair; Hope, Pandora

2006-10-01

The quality and availability of climate data suitable for palaeoclimatic calibration and verification for the Australian region are discussed and documented. Details of the various datasets, including problems with the data, are presented. High-quality datasets, where such problems are reduced or even eliminated, are discussed. Many climate datasets are now analysed onto grids, facilitating the preparation of regional-average time series. Work is under way to produce such high-quality, gridded datasets for a variety of hitherto unavailable climate data, including surface humidity, pan evaporation, wind, and cloud. An experiment suggests that only a relatively small number of palaeoclimatic time series could provide a useful estimate of long-term changes in Australian annual average temperature. Copyright

Climate Change Impact On Mekong Delta of Vietnam in recent years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, L. T. X., III

2015-12-01

In recent years, the climate change signal increase globally. Abnormal changes of weather tends increasingly detrimental to human life, such as natural disasters occur with increasing level of more severe. Climate change is one the biggest challenges, and is a potential threat to humans. The impact of climate change increases the number and extent of the disaster fierce exists as typhoons, floods, droughts ... Global warming and sea level rise increases the area of flooding, saline intrusion and erosion in the delta region may cause farmers to lose the opportunity to produce, source of life their only. Impact of climate change on people in the community, but poor farmers in the developing countries like our country, women are the most severe consequences In this section, we summarize changes in climate on the territory of Vietnam, especially in Mekong Delta evaluate causes and its relationship to changes in global climate and region. Along with the analysis of characteristics of climate changes over time and through space to help the evolution of the standard deviation (average deviation from the standard of the period from 1971 to 2015) may indicate that the characteristic gas scenes took place related to global climate change ... Vietnam's territory stretches over approximately 15 latitude, the terrain is very complex, located in the interior full of tropical Southeast Asia. Vietnam climate strongly influenced by the Asian monsoon, monsoon and Northern Hemisphere especially the ENSO activity in the equatorial region and the Pacific Ocean. Climate Vietnam abundant and diversified, with strong ties to the region and globally.

Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

2013-04-01

Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results indicated that when the effect of extreme events was not considered, climate change had a low or no impact on crop yield distribution in 2020 and 2040. This resulted into an expected payout close to what observed in the present period. Conversely, the simulation of the effect of extreme events highly affected the PDFs by reducing the expected yield. This highlights that insured yield in future projections may be overestimated when not considering the impact of extremes, leading to distortions in the risk management of crop insurance companies. References Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M (2011) Climate ch'ange impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Clim Change 104:679-701 Sherrick BJ, Zanini FC, Schnitkey GD, Irwin SH (2004) Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86:406-419. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3 PB, UK. 160 pp

Awareness of Climate Change and the Dietary Choices of Young Adults in Finland: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Korkala, Essi A. E.; Hugg, Timo T.; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.

2014-01-01

Climate change is a major public health threat that is exacerbated by food production. Food items differ substantially in the amount of greenhouse gases their production generates and therefore individuals, if willing, can mitigate climate change through dietary choices. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study to assess if the understanding of climate change, concern over climate change or socio-economic characteristics are reflected in the frequencies of climate-friendly food choices. The study population comprised 1623 young adults in Finland who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64.0%). We constructed a Climate-Friendly Diet Score (CFDS) ranging theoretically from −14 to 14 based on the consumption of 14 food items. A higher CFDS indicated a climate-friendlier diet. Multivariate linear regression analyses on the determinants of CFDS revealed that medium concern raised CFDS on average by 0.51 points (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.03, 0.98) and high concern by 1.30 points (95% CI 0.80, 1.80) compared to low concern. Understanding had no effect on CFDS on its own. Female gender raised CFDS by 1.92 (95% CI 1.59, 2.25). Unemployment decreased CFDS by 0.92 (95% CI −1.68, −0.15). Separate analyses of genders revealed that high concern over climate change brought about a greater increase in CFDS in females than in males. Good understanding of climate change was weakly connected to climate-friendly diet among females only. Our results indicate that increasing awareness of climate change could lead to increased consumption of climate-friendly food, reduction in GHG emissions, and thus climate change mitigation. PMID:24824363

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.

PubMed

Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D

2015-11-01

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Hameed, S.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Tropospheric ozone and methane might increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test this possible climatic impact, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically-averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4 and NOx. The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NOx and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could enhance global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Health and equity impacts of climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand, and health gains from climate action.

PubMed

Bennett, Hayley; Jones, Rhys; Keating, Gay; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Metcalfe, Scott

2014-11-28

Human-caused climate change poses an increasingly serious and urgent threat to health and health equity. Under all the climate projections reported in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, New Zealand will experience direct impacts, biologically mediated impacts, and socially mediated impacts on health. These will disproportionately affect populations that already experience disadvantage and poorer health. Without rapid global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (particularly from fossil fuels), the world will breach its carbon budget and may experience high levels of warming (land temperatures on average 4-7 degrees Celsius higher by 2100). This level of climate change would threaten the habitability of some parts of the world because of extreme weather, limits on working outdoors, and severely reduced food production. However, well-planned action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could bring about substantial benefits to health, and help New Zealand tackle its costly burden of health inequity and chronic disease.

Experimental effects of climate messages vary geographically

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Baobao; van der Linden, Sander; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Howe, Peter D.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2018-05-01

Social science scholars routinely evaluate the efficacy of diverse climate frames using local convenience or nationally representative samples1-5. For example, previous research has focused on communicating the scientific consensus on climate change, which has been identified as a `gateway' cognition to other key beliefs about the issue6-9. Importantly, although these efforts reveal average public responsiveness to particular climate frames, they do not describe variation in message effectiveness at the spatial and political scales relevant for climate policymaking. Here we use a small-area estimation method to map geographical variation in public responsiveness to information about the scientific consensus as part of a large-scale randomized national experiment (n = 6,301). Our survey experiment finds that, on average, public perception of the consensus increases by 16 percentage points after message exposure. However, substantial spatial variation exists across the United States at state and local scales. Crucially, responsiveness is highest in more conservative parts of the country, leading to national convergence in perceptions of the climate science consensus across diverse political geographies. These findings not only advance a geographical understanding of how the public engages with information about scientific agreement, but will also prove useful for policymakers, practitioners and scientists engaged in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

PubMed

Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

2016-04-01

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming.

PubMed

Chen, I-Ching; Hill, Jane K; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Roy, David B; Thomas, Chris D

2011-08-19

The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate. Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade. These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported. The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes. However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change. Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species.

Artificial warming of arctic meadow under pollution stress: Experimental design

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Boreal and arctic terrestrial ecosystems are central to the climate change debate, notably because future warming is expected to be disproportionate as compared to world averages. Likewise, greenhouse gas (GHG) release from terrestrial ecosystems exposed to climate warming is expected to be the larg...

Resonant obliquity of Mars?. [climate driven by spin axis and orbit plane precession caused oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ward, William R.; Rudy, Donald J.

1991-01-01

The large-scale oscillations generated by the obliquity of Mars through spin-axis and orbit-plane precessions constitute basic climate system drivers with periodicities of 100,000 yrs in differential spin axis-orbit precession rates and of over 1 million yrs in amplitude modulations due to orbital-inclination changes. Attention is presently given to a third time-scale for climate change, which involves a possible spin-spin resonance and whose mechanism operates on a 10-million-yr time-scale: this effect implies an average obliquity increase for Mars of 15 deg only 5 million yrs ago, with important climatic consequences.

Impacts of climate variability and change on crop yield in sub-Sahara Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Chen, G.; Xu, R.; Zhang, B.; Lou, Y.

2017-12-01

Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on Africa's food security. The impact of climate change on Africa's agriculture is likely to be severe compared to other continents due to high rain-fed agricultural dependence, and limited ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In recent decades, warming in Africa is more pronounced and faster than the global average and this trend is likely to continue in the future. However, quantitative assessment on impacts of climate extremes and climate change on crop yield has not been well investigated yet. By using an improved agricultural module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed impacts of historical climate variability and future climate change on food crop yield across the sub-Sahara Africa during1980-2016 and the rest of the 21st century (2017-2099). Our simulated results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Droughts have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions of Sub-Sahara Africa. Future projections with DLEM-AG2 show that food crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa would be favored with limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.50 C.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

PubMed Central

Williams, A. Park

2016-01-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting. PMID:27791053

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality ismore » projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O 3 level and of 0.3 mg m 3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO 2, H 2O 2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O 3, and increases in CH 4 and VOCs. Increasing NO x and O 3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O 3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m 2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.« less

Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James; Hartin, Corinne A.; Mundra, Anupriya; Calvin, Katherine

2015-04-01

Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. ) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 +/- 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.

Ozone and its projection in regard to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melkonyan, Ani; Wagner, Patrick

2013-03-01

In this paper, the dependence of ozone-forming potential on temperature was analysed based on data from two stations (with an industrial and rural background, respectively) in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, for the period of 1983-2007. After examining the interrelations between ozone, NOx and temperature, a projection of the days with ozone exceedance (over a limit value of a daily maximum 8-h average ≥ 120 μg m-3 for 25 days per year averaged for 3 years) in terms of global climate change was made using probability theory and an autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results show that with a temperature increase of 3 K, the frequency of days when ozone exceeds its limit value will increase by 135% at the industrial station and by 87% at the rural background station.

Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2015-05-01

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

PubMed Central

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

2018-01-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

Paleoclimate of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period Reconstructed from Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Limpet Shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Surge, D. M.; Mithen, S.

2010-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions from different regions have reported abrupt climate change around 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. The timing of this abrupt climate change is close to the boundary between the Neoglacial (3300-2500 cal yr B.P.) and Roman Warm Period (2500-1600 cal yr B.P.). However, temporal and spatial variability observed in this climate change event raises controversies about the forcing factors driving it and why it has regional variability. Scotland lies in the North Atlantic Ocean, which responds sensitively to climate change. Therefore, even in the case of subtle climate change, the climate variability of Scotland should be able to capture such change. In this study, we expect that paleoclimate reconstructions of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period in Scotland will help improve our knowledge of abrupt climate change at 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. Archaeological shell deposits provide a rich source of climate proxy data preserved as oxygen isotope ratios in shell carbonate. Croig Cave on the Isle of Mull, Scotland, contains a nearly continuous accumulation of shells ranging from 800 BC-500 AD and possibly older. This range represents a broad chronology of human use from the late Bronze to Iron Ages and spans the Neoglacial through Roman Warm Period climate episodes. Here, we present seasonal temperature variability of the two climate episodes based on oxygen isotope ratios of ten limpet shells (Patella vulgata) from Croig Cave. Based on AMS dating (2 sigma calibration), the oldest shell was from 3480-3330 cal yr B.P. and the youngest shell was from 2060-1870 cal yr B.P. Our results indicated that estimated temperatures from the Neoglacial limpets average 6.44±0.56°C for coldest winters and 15.06±0.67°C for warmest summers. For the Roman Warm Period limpets, the average is 5.68±0.36°C for coldest winters and 14.14±0.81°C for warmest summers. We compared our estimated temperatures to the present sea surface temperature (SST) from 1961 to 1990 near our study area, which averages 7.40±0.35°C for coldest month and 14.12±0.54°C for warmest month. Our reconstructed temperatures from the Neoglacial limpets showed slightly (0-1°C) colder winters, similar or warmer (1-1.8°C) summers compared to present SST record. One shell captured a year without a summer likely resulting from an eruption of the Katla volcanic system in Iceland. The reconstructed temperatures from the Roman Warm Period limpets showed colder winters (up to 2°C) and similar summers compared with present SST record. Our findings represent the first insights of SST variability at seasonal time scales for these two climate episodes in northwest Scotland.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Relationship between changes in the upper and lower tropospheric water vapor: A revisit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, M.; Sun, D. Z.; Zhang, G. J.

2017-12-01

Upper tropospheric water vapor response to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing is as important as the lower tropospheric water vapor response in determining climate sensitivity. Early studies using older versions of climate models have suggested that the upper- and lower-troposphere water vapor changes are more strongly coupled in the climate models than in the observations. Here we reexamine this issue using a state-of-the-art climate model—the NCAR community model CAM5. Specifically, we have calculated the correlations between interannual variations of specific humidity in all levels of the troposphere with that at the surface in CAM5 and in the observations (as represented by the updated ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalysis). It is found that the previously noted biases in how strongly upper tropospheric water vapor and lower troposphere water vapor are linked still exist in CAM5—the change in the tropical averaged upper tropospheric water vapor is more strongly correlated with the change in the surface. However, this bias disappears in the averaged correlation obtained by averaging the point-by-point correlations over the tropics. The spatial pattern of the point-by-point correlations reveals that the better agreement between the model and the observations is related to the opposite model biases in different regions: the correlation is weaker in the model in the western Pacific, but stronger in the central and eastern Pacific. Further analysis of precipitation fields suggests that the weaker (stronger) coupling between tropospheric water vapor and surface moisture over western (central-eastern) Pacific in model is related to weaker (stronger) simulated convective activities in these regions. More specifically, during El Nino, the model has excessive deep convection in the central Pacific, but too littler deep convection in western Pacific. Implications of the results are discussed in the context of climate change as well as in the context of how to improve the model in this regard.

Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Forman, Barton; Zhang, Xiao

2017-08-01

Previous modelling studies suggest that thermoelectric power generation is vulnerable to climate change, whereas studies based on historical data suggest the impact will be less severe. Here we explore the vulnerability of thermoelectric power generation in the United States to climate change by coupling an Earth system model with a thermoelectric power generation model, including state-level representation of environmental regulations on thermal effluents. We find that the impact of climate change is lower than in previous modelling estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. More specifically, our results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average generating capacity by 2-3% by the 2060s, while reductions of up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. Our work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

Interaction of an Introduced Predator with Future Effects of Climate Change in the Recruitment Dynamics of the Imperiled Sierra Nevada Yellow-legged Frog (Rana sierrae)

Treesearch

I Lacan; Kathleen R. Matthews; K.V. Feldman

2008-01-01

Between-year variation in snowpack (from 20 to 200% of average) and summer rainfall cause large fluctuations in volume of small lakes in the higher elevation (> 3000 m) Sierra Nevada, which are important habitat for the imperiled Sierra Nevada Yellow-legged Frog, Rana sierrae. Climate change (global warming) is predicted to increase these...

Influences of extreme weather, climate and pesticide use on invertebrates in cereal fields over 42 years.

PubMed

Ewald, Julie A; Wheatley, Christopher J; Aebischer, Nicholas J; Moreby, Stephen J; Duffield, Simon J; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Morecroft, Michael B

2015-11-01

Cereal fields are central to balancing food production and environmental health in the face of climate change. Within them, invertebrates provide key ecosystem services. Using 42 years of monitoring data collected in southern England, we investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long-term changes in temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance. Of the 26 invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events. Average abundance increased in hot/dry years and decreased in cold/wet years for Araneae, Cicadellidae, adult Heteroptera, Thysanoptera, Braconidae, Enicmus and Lathridiidae. The average abundance of Delphacidae, Cryptophagidae and Mycetophilidae increased in both hot/dry and cold/wet years relative to other years. The abundance of all 10 groups usually returned to their long-term trend within a year after the extreme event. For five of them, sensitivity to cold/wet events was lowest (translating into higher abundances) at locations with a westerly aspect. Some long-term trends in invertebrate abundance correlated with temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect them. However, pesticide use was more important in explaining the trends, suggesting that reduced pesticide use would mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Man-made climatic changes in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adel, Miah M.

2002-06-01

Climate data pertaining to the Ganges basin in Bangladesh were analysed to find any climatic changes in the wake of the upstream water diversion by the Farakka Barrage. Whereas the diversions have been continuing from at least 30 international rivers upstream of Bangladesh, the diversion from the Ganges is the best known and has a wider coverage than all other diversions. The diversion reduced the Ganges' discharge through the delta by about 60% from a pre-diversion average value of 1932 m3 s-1, decreased water availability in flood plains, ponds, canals, and ditches by about 50%, dropped the groundwater table, and caused changes in surface features. It took about 5 years of diversions beyond the test run year of 1975 for the environment to react to set 1981 as the baseline year. During the post-baseline era: (1) heating degree days and cooling degree days were respectively 1.33 and 1.44 times more than their counterparts during the pre-baseline era; (2) the summertime and wintertime average temperatures were respectively 1 °C more and 0.5 °C less than the corresponding values during the pre-baseline era; (3) the mode 32 °C of summertime maximum temperatures was 1 °C higher and occurred 414 times more, and the mode 25 °C of wintertime temperature was 1 °C less and occurred 17 times less than the corresponding quantities during the pre-baseline era; (4) the average value of maximum relative humidity has increased by more than 2% and that of minimum relative humidity has dropped by the same amount; (5) the mode 95% and 70% of maximum and minimum relative humidity values have occurred 1322 times and 84 times more respectively than their pre-baseline counterparts; and (6) the frequency for 100 mm or more rainfall and the monthly average rainfalls have dropped by about 50% and 30% respectively. The solution to the climatic changes lies in the restoration of the virgin Ganges flow, dredging of the Ganges and its distributaries to remove shoals and siltation, and re-excavation of canals for water discharge to depleted surface water bodies to re-establish the lost wetland ecosystems. The findings are useful for climate modellers to predict the climatic changes due to changes in surface features, for policy makers of governments of riparian countries constructing dams/barrages on international rivers for unilateral diversion of water, and for donor agencies who finance such projects.

Climate change impact on wave energy in the Persian Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamranzad, Bahareh; Etemad-Shahidi, Amir; Chegini, Vahid; Yeganeh-Bakhtiary, Abbas

2015-06-01

Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth's temperature, and consequently have changed the patterns of natural phenomena such as wind speed, wave height, etc. Renewable energy resources are ideal alternatives to reduce the negative effects of increasing greenhouse gases emission and climate change. However, these energy sources are also sensitive to changing climate. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave energy in the Persian Gulf is investigated. For this purpose, future wind data obtained from CGCM3.1 model were downscaled using a hybrid approach and modification factors were computed based on local wind data (ECMWF) and applied to control and future CGCM3.1 wind data. Downscaled wind data was used to generate the wave characteristics in the future based on A2, B1, and A1B scenarios, while ECMWF wind field was used to generate the wave characteristics in the control period. The results of these two 30-yearly wave modelings using SWAN model showed that the average wave power changes slightly in the future. Assessment of wave power spatial distribution showed that the reduction of the average wave power is more in the middle parts of the Persian Gulf. Investigation of wave power distribution in two coastal stations (Boushehr and Assalouyeh ports) indicated that the annual wave energy will decrease in both stations while the wave power distribution for different intervals of significant wave height and peak period will also change in Assalouyeh according to all scenarios.

Early action on HFCs mitigates future atmospheric change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2016-11-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 K at 80 hPa. The HFC mitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Early Action on Hfcs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2016-01-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying theUNFCCCParis Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid- 21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 Kat 80 hPa. The HFCmitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Mismatch between marine plankton range movements and the velocity of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chivers, William J.; Walne, Anthony W.; Hays, Graeme C.

2017-02-01

The response of marine plankton to climate change is of critical importance to the oceanic food web and fish stocks. We use a 60-year ocean basin-wide data set comprising >148,000 samples to reveal huge differences in range changes associated with climate change across 35 plankton taxa. While the range of dinoflagellates and copepods tended to closely track the velocity of climate change (the rate of isotherm movement), the range of the diatoms moved much more slowly. Differences in range shifts were up to 900 km in a recent warming period, with average velocities of range movement between 7 km per decade northwards for taxa exhibiting niche plasticity and 99 km per decade for taxa exhibiting niche conservatism. The differing responses of taxa to global warming will cause spatial restructuring of the plankton ecosystem with likely consequences for grazing pressures on phytoplankton and hence for biogeochemical cycling, higher trophic levels and biodiversity.

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective.

PubMed

Corell, Robert W

2006-06-01

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.

Using Climate Science to Inform Local Planning: Challenges and Successes from the Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.

2014-12-01

Much of our society, including our agriculture, our dependence on natural resources, and our infrastructure, is built on the assumption that individual weather events and average conditions may vary from year to year, but over the long term the climate of a given region can be predicted based on past climate "normals". This assumption is no longer valid; today, human-induced climate change is altering average conditions as well as the risk of many types of weather extremes. Observed trends and projected future changes in mean climate and in the frequency and severity of temperature extremes, heat waves, heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, and storms are clearly documented in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as by a host of other regional impact assessments. While future projections are inherently uncertain, these assessments make one fact clear: future planning for any sector or region affected by climate change that fails to take into account long-term trends will end up with the wrong answer. This concept of non-stationarity, that future climate will differ from that experienced in the past, challenges regional planners, water managers, city managers and engineers to incorporate future climate change into present-day planning. From the perspective of scientists, translating climate projections into information that can be used by stakeholders and decision-makers presents a challenge of equal magnitude. Here, I draw on my experience working with the agriculture, ecosystem, energy, health, infrastructure, insurance, and water sectors to propose a framework for, and highlight some of the main challenges inherent to, incorporating climate information into practical, on-the-ground planning at the local to regional scale. This approach, which we have developed through working with a range of cities, states, and regions including Austin, Cambridge, California, Chicago, Delaware, the Northeast, and most recently Washington DC, is based on identifying known vulnerabilities within the systems of interest, and developing appropriate information compatible with existing planning mechanisms to ensure the relevance and utility of the climate information for increasing resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate risks.

Climate Change Community Outreach Initiative (CCCOI)--A Gulf of Mexico Education Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, S. H.; Stone, D.; Schultz, T.; LeBlanc, T.; Miller-Way, T.; Estrada, P.

2012-12-01

This five-year, Gulf of Mexico regional collaborative is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Office of Education and represents a successful grant submitted by the FL Aquarium as a member of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA). This climate change effort focuses on enhanced content knowledge and the manner in which personal actions and behaviors contribute to sustainability and stewardship. Diverse audiences—represented by visitors at the informal centers listed above—have been and are involved in the following activities: social networking via responses to climate change surveys; an "ocean and climate change defender" computer game, specifically designed for this project; an average of 10 annual outreach events implemented by these facilities at community festivals; climate change lectures provided to family audiences; and professional development workshops for informal and formal educators. This presentation will provide opportunities and challenges encountered during the first two years of implementation. This regional effort is also aligned with both the Ocean Literacy: Essential Principles and the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles. Additional partners include: Normandeau Associates, Conservation Enterprises, Unlimited, and Mindclay Creative.

Climate regulation services by urban lakes in Bucharest city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioja, Cristian; Cheval, Sorin; Vanau, Gabriel; Sandric, Ionut; Onose, Diana; Carstea, Elfrida

2017-04-01

Urban ecosystems services assessment is an important challenge for practitioners, due to the high complexity of relations between urban systems components, high vulnerability to climate change, and consequences in social-economical systems. Urban lakes represent a significant component in more European cities (average 5% of total surface). Adequate urban management supports diverse benefits of urban lakes: clean water availability, mediation of waste, toxics and other nuisance, air quality and climate regulation, support for physical, intelectual or spiritual interactions. Due to underestimation of climate change and misfit urban planning decision, these benefits may be lost or chaged into diservices. The aim of the paper is to assess the changes in terms of the urban lakes contribution role to regulate urban climate, using the Bucharest as case study. Using sensors and Modis, Sentinel and Landsat images, the paper experiments the evolution of climate regulation services of urban lakes under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change between 2008 and 2015. Urban lakes management has to include specific measures in order to help the cities to become more sustainable, resilient, liveable and healthly.

Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wichmann, Matthias C.; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Jeltsch, Florian; Grimm, Volker

2005-07-01

The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle ( Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted.

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

Environmental Change: Precipitation and N, P, K, mg Fertilization Influences on Crop Yield Under Temperate Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

László Phd, Dd. M.

2009-04-01

Summary: Agroecological quality has a well estabished dependence on climate-rainfall changes because the water problems are pressing. Therefore, there is, growing concern about the potentially wide ranging risks that climate change would have on these key industries as the nature and extent of anticipated changes have become more evident. It also includes changes in land use and in plant production and their management. These changes are unprecedented in terms of both their rate and their spatial extent. Changes in land use (agrotechnics, soil, cultivation, fertility, quality, protection etc.) and in plant production (plant, nutrition, rotation, protection etc.) are currently the main manifestations. As an interdisciplinary problem it is necessary to study such a complex matter in terms of agricultural production. Generally, among natural catastrophes, droughts and floods cause the greatest problems in field crop production. The droughts and the floods that were experienced in Hungary in the early 1980s have drawn renewed attention to the analyses of these problems. New research on climate change-soil-plant systems are focused on yield and yield quality. This paper reports of the climate changes (rainfall); soil (acidic sandy brown forest) properties, mineral N, P, K, Mg fertilisation level and plant interactions on rye (Secale cereale L.), on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in a long term field experiment set up at Nyírlugos in north-eastern Hungary under temperate climate conditions in 1962. Results are summarised from 1962 to 1990. Main conclusions were as follows: 1. Rye: a, Experimental years were characterised by frequent extremes of precipitation variabilities and changes. b, By an average year, at a satisfactory fertilisation level (N: 90 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) the maximum yield reached 3.8 t ha-1. But yield was decreased by 17% and by 52% due to drought and excess rainfall, respectively. Negative effects (drought, excess rainfall) were diminished by 20-25% with Mg treatments. c, Correlation between rye yields and precipitation during vegetation seasons showed that optimum yield (4.0 t ha-1) develops in the 430-470 mm range. 2. Potato: a, Trial years were estimated by recurrent extremes of climate. b, In vegetation seasons poor in rainfall yield safety in potato cannot be secured by fertilisation (N, NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg) alone. Under this weather condition yield was decreased by 35%. c, Optimum yields range between 17-21 t ha-1 at 280-350 mm. 3. Winter wheat: a, Climate was manifested mainly by precipitation using average, drought, dry and rainy levels. b, Yields from drought year effects with N, NP and NK combinations were diminished to 48% and with NPK and NPKMg treatments fell to 51%. c, Optimum yields (3.5-4.0 t ha-1) were developed at 450-500 mm. This paper summarises quantified results of rye, potato and winter wheat research with regarding to interaction effects and relationships between climate (rainfall)-mineral nutrition-crop production changes in Hungary during a long term field experiment to agricultural sustainability. Key words: ecology, rainfall, crop, fertilization, yield Introduction: "Climate Change" are recognized as a serious environmental issues [1]. Presently the build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the inertia in trends in emissions means that we can expect significant changes for at least the next few decades and probably for the whole 21th century too [2]. It would badly need to understand what might be involved in adapting to the new climates. A decade ago, researchers asked the „what if" question. For example, what will be the impact if climate changes. Now, we must increasingly address the following question: how do we respond effectivelly to prevent damaging impacts and take advantage of new climatic opportunities [3]. This question requires detailed in information regarding expected impacts and effectíve adaptive measures. Information on adaptation is required for governments, landscape planners, stakeholders, farmers, producers, processors, supermarkets and consumers. Not only the local effects and options, but also the spatial implications must be understood. Will yields be maintained on the present range of farms. Where will new crops be grown. Will new processing plants be required. Will there be competition for water. Most recent agricultural impact studies have concentrated on the effects of mean changes in climate on crop production, whilst only limited investigations into the effects of climate variability on agriculture have been undertaken. The paucity of studies in this area is not least due to the considerable uncertainty regarding how climate variability may change in the future in response to greenhouse gas induced warming but also as a result of the uncertainty in the response of agricultural crops to changes in climate variability, effected most probably through changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. That changes showed in variance have a greater effect on the frequency of extreme climatic events than do changes in the mean values. Hence, it is important to attempt to include changes in variability in scenarios of climate change. Weather change in Hungary was started about of 1850. Among the natural catastrophes, drought and flooding caused by over-abundant rainfall cause the greatest problem in plant nutrition and in field crop production nowadays too [4]. It is why we found it necessary to revise and to analyse this problem. Rye (Secale cereale L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) are most important crops of many World countries [5] but little research in the field of climate change impact assessment has been undertaken. All three plant are sensitive to the prevailing weather conditions (rainfall) and, hence, it is important to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic climate change on their production. These crops are demanding indicator of soil nutrient status also. Have a particularly high requirement for supply of soil nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and magnesium. From 1962 to 1990 this paper describes climate-rainfall-change and N, P, K and Mg-mineral fertilisation effects on rye, potato and winter wheat yield on a acidic sandy brown forest soil at long term experiment scale under temperate climate conditions at Hungary. Material and Method: The effect of rainfall quantity and distribution on certain crop fertilisation factors (N, P, K, Mg and yield) were studied in a long-term field experiment on acidic sandy brown forest soil at North-Eastern Hungary set up in 1962 and 2002. Ploughed layer of the experiment soil had a pH(KCl) 4.5, humus 0.5%, CEC 5-10 mgeq 100 g-1. The topsoil was poor in all four macronutrients N, P, K and Mg. Rye, potato and winter wheat experiments involved 2x2x16x8 = 512, 2x2x16x8 = 512 and 2x16x4 = 128 plots. The gross and net plot size was 10x5 = 50 m2 and 35.5 m2. The experimental designe was split-split-plot. Average treatments were rye N:45 kg, P2O5:24, K2O:40, MgO:7.5 kg ha-1 year-1, potato N:75 kg, P2O5:24, K2O:75, MgO:15 kg ha-1 year-1, winter wheat N:45 kg, P2O5:24, K2O:40, MgO:7.5 kg ha-1 year-1 from 1962 to 1980 and N:75 kg, P2O5:90, K2O:90, MgO:140 kg ha-1 year-1 from 1981 to 1990 in the form of 25% calcium ammonium nitrate, 18% superphosphate, 40% potassium chloride, and magnesium sulphate. The groundwater table was at a depth of 2-3 m. Ecological (rainfall) and experimental data bases were estimated by Hungarian traditional [6] and RISSAC-HAS [3] standards and MANOVA (SPSS). Results: Climate-rainfall-change and mineral fertilisation effects on rye yield a. Experimental years were characterised by frequent extremes of precipitation variabilities and changes. One year had an 450 mm average rainfall (1966), one year had a more humid (1970) and three years had a very dry (1964, 1968, 1972) character. b. Weather anomalies as drought or to much rainfall did not cause significant differences on rye yield without fertilisation (average year: 1.66 t ha-1, drought year: 1.51 t ha-1, over rainfall year: 1.47 t ha-1). c. Yields varied from 2.01 to 3.04 t ha-1 under low (N: 30 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) fertilisation input. Yields were decreased by 14% and 10% by drought and also by excess of rainfall. d. At mean fertilisation (N: 60 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) level the maximum yield had reached 3.6 t ha-1 in average year. In years with excess rainfall, rye yields decreased as an average of fertilisation treatments by 20%. e. By an average year, at satisfactory fertilisation (N: 90 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) level the maximum yield reached 3.8 t ha-1. But these yields were decreased with 17% and with 52% by drought and excess rainfall weather conditions respects. Negative effects (drought, excess rainfall) were diminished with 20-25% on the Mg treatments. f. Correlations between rye yields and the sums of precipitations during vegetation period (control: R = 0.99***, N: R = 0.84***, NP: R = 0.84***, NK: R = 0.91***, NPK: R = 0.85***, NPKMg: R = 0.65**) showed that optimum yields will develop in 430-470 mm range. Under and above these range of rainfall yields will decrease. Climate-rainfall-change and mineral fertilisation effects on potato yield a. Trial years (1963, 1965, 1967, 1969, 1971) were characterised by recurrent extremes of climate under vegetation seasons of potato. Three period had average rainfall, while two were very dry. b. All in all, droughts in the winter or summer half-year had much the same effect on yields. Precipitation deficiency in the winter could not be counterbalanced by average rainfall during the vegetation period, and its effect on the yield was similar to that of summer drought. c. Yield and quality were influenced by rainfall to a greater extent than by fertilisation. d. In vegetation periods poor in rainfall yield and quality safety in potato cannot be secured by fertilisation alone, they were decreased to 35%. It was also concluded that economic yields could not be achieved with poor nutrient supply even with a normal quantity and distribution of rainfall. e. The unfavorable effects of climate anomalies (drought, over-abundance of water in the topsoil) on the yield formation, yield quantity and quality of potato depended decisively on the time of year when they were experienced and the period for which they lasted. f. With the help of regression analysis it was found the polynomial correlation between rainfall and yield could be observed in case of the control: R = 0.98***, N: R = 0.95***, NP: R = 0.96***, NK: R = 0.95***, NPK: R = 0.98***, NPKMg: R = 0.96*** nutrition systems. The optimum yield ranges between 17-20 t ha-1 at 280-350 mm of rainfall. Climate-rainfall-change and mineral fertilisation effects on winter wheat yield a. Climate-rainfall-conditions of winter wheat years were determined by mainly precipitation on-, average (1982 and 1989)-, drought (1976 and 1990)-, dry (1974) and rainy (1978 and 1980) level. b. Experimental years climate-rainfall-character were formed by winter half-years (october-march), months (october-september), pre-months of sowing (august), critical sequential month number in vegetation seasons (september-july) and critical sequential month number in experimental years (september-august). c. In average years without any mineral fertilisation wheat yield was stabilized on the level of 1.8 t ha-1. Under N, P, K and Mg fertiliser input minimum and maximum yields were 2.7 and 4.1 t ha-1. Yield was only increased by whole NPK and Mg completed NPKMg treatment. d. Without mineral fertilisation on control plots yield was decreased by drought year effect compared with average with a 39%. On N, NP and NK combinations yields were diminished to 48%. Drought damage on yield production was rised more to 51% by NPK and NPKMg application. e. But in dry years and in average years yields were similar on control plots. Yields were decreased for average year effect on N, NP, NK and NPK, NPKMg treatments with 20% and with 16%. f. Under excess rainy weather conditions without fertiliser application yields were decreased more dramaticaly (56%) than under drought seasons (39%) to case of average rainfall effects. Yield was damaged with a 47% by unfavourable (N, NP, NK) nutrition. But this negative effect of excess rainfall condition was diminished on NPK and NPKMg treatments to 41%. g. Correlations of regression analysis between yields and the sums of precipitations during vegetation seasons (control: R = 0.59***, N: R = 0.57***, NP: R = 0.76***, NK: R = 0.53**, NPK: R = 0.67***, NPKMg R = 0.70**) showed that optimum yields will develop in 450-500 mm range. Above these range of rainfall yields will decrease swiftly. This paper gives opportunities summarise quantified results of rye-potato-winter wheat researches with regarding to interaction effects and relationships between climate (rainfall)-mineral nutrition-crop production changes at Hungary in a long term field experiment system under temperate climate conditions to agricultural sustainability. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by Hungarian Academy of Sciences, H-Budapest References [1] Johnston A.E.: Some aspects of nitrogen use efficiency in arable agriculture. K. Scogs-o. Lantbr. Akad. Tidskr. 2000, 8, 139. [2] Márton L.: Climate change and N, P, K, Mg fertilization effect analysis at Tisza-river basin in a long term field experiment. Szent István University, Gödöllő 2001, 9. [3] Márton L.: Climate change, N-fertilisation effect on rye (Secale cereale L.) yield in a long term field experiment. [in:] Rural development-Ecologically farming-Agriculture, (Eds M Palkovics), University Veszprém, Keszthely 2001, 924-929. [4] José A.B., Estáquio M.J. and Márton L.: Results of Crotalaria ssp. effects on soil conservation. Congress on Conservation Agriculture (Eds Armando MV), ECAF., Madrid, 2001. 5, 1-4. [5] Kádár I., Márton L. and Horváth S.: Mineral fertilisation of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) on calcareous chernozem soil. Plant Production, 2000, 49, 291-306. [6] Harnos, Zs.: Időjárás és időjárás-termés összefüggéseinek idősoros elemzése, [in:] Aszály 1983 (Szerk.: Baráth Cs-né, Győrffy B., Harnos Zs.). KÉE. Budapest 1993. [7] Márton L.: Climate-Rainfall Change (CRC) and mineral fertilisation (MF) effects on different crop production. [in:] Challenges of the new millennium our joint responsibility. (Eds A. Borhidi). MTA ÖBKI, Budapest 2002, 1, 110-111. [8] Márton L.: Rainfall, mineral fertilisation and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield relations. Plant Production, 2002, 51, 529-542.

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change.

PubMed

Skagen, Susan K; Adams, Amy A Yackel

2012-06-01

The influence of recent climate change on the world's biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation; yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 3 degrees C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.

2012-01-01

The influence of recent climate change on the world’s biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation, yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 38C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T; Reichstein, Markus

2014-10-09

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Kutywayo, Dumisani; Chemura, Abel; Kusena, Winmore; Chidoko, Pardon; Mahoya, Caleb

2013-01-01

The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms. PMID:24014222

Numerical modelling assessment of climate-change impacts and mitigation measures on the Querença-Silves coastal aquifer (Algarve, Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor; Costa, Luis; Monteiro, José Paulo

2017-11-01

Predicted changes in climate will lead to seawater intrusion in the Querença-Silves (QS) coastal aquifer (south Portugal) during the coming century if the current water-resource-management strategy is maintained. As for much of the Mediterranean, average rainfall is predicted to decrease along with increasing seasonal and inter-annual variability and there is a need to understand how these changes will affect the sustainable use of groundwater resources. A density-coupled flow and transport model of the QS was used to simulate an ensemble of climate, water-use and adaptation scenarios from 2010 to 2099 taking into account intra- and inter-annual variability in recharge and groundwater use. By considering several climate models, bias correction and recharge calculation methods, a degree of uncertainty was included. Changes in rainfall regimes will have an immediate effect on groundwater discharge; however, the effect on saltwater intrusion is attenuated by the freshwater-saltwater interfaces' comparatively slow rate of movement. Comparing the effects of adaptation measures demonstrates that the extent of intrusion in the QS is controlled by the long-term water budget, as the effectiveness of both demand and supply oriented measures is proportional to the change in water budget, and that to maintain the current position, average groundwater discharge should be in the order of 50 × 106 m3 yr-1.

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales.

PubMed

Beever, Erik A; Dobrowski, S Z; Long, J; Mynsberge, A R; Piekielek, N B

2013-07-01

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994-1999 and 2003-2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

Multiple phenological responses to climate change among 42 plant species in Xi'an, China.

PubMed

Dai, Junhu; Wang, Huanjiong; Ge, Quansheng

2013-09-01

Phenological data of 42 woody plants in a temperate deciduous forest from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and the corresponding meteorological data from 1963 to 2011 in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China were collected and analyzed. The first leaf date (FLD), leaf coloring date (LCD) and first flower date (FFD) are revealed as strong biological signals of climatic change. The FLD, LCD and FFD of most species are sensitive to average temperature during a certain period before phenophase onset. Regional precipitation also has a significant impact on phenophases of about half of the species investigated. Affected by climate change, the FLD and FFD of these species have advanced by 5.54 days and 10.20 days on average during 2003-2011 compared with the period 1963-1996, respectively. Meanwhile, the LCD has delayed by 10.59 days, and growing season length has extended 16.13 days. Diverse responses of phenology commonly exist among different species and functional groups during the study period. Especially for FFD, the deviations between the above two periods ranged from -20.68 to -2.79 days; biotic pollination species showed a significantly greater advance than abiotic pollination species. These results were conducive to the understanding of possible changes in both the structure of plant communities and interspecific relationships in the context of climate change.

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation,and climate at ecoregional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik A.; Solomon Dubrowski,; ,; ,; J. Long,; ,; A. Mysnberge,; Piekielek, N. B.

2014-01-01

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species’ distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994–1999 and 2003–2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

Adapting to climate change or to stakeholders?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruggeman, Adriana; Camera, Corrado; Giannakis, Elias; Zoumides, Christos; Eliades, Marinos; Djuma, Hakan

2015-04-01

The Tamassos dam protects the Pedieos watershed in Cyprus against floods. The waterbody behind the dam serves as a new biodiversity and recreational resource. Water from the dam is also used for domestic water supply for nearby rural communities. However, this peaceful picture is threatened by climate change. Regional Climate Models indicate a drier and warmer Pedieos watershed in the near future (2020-2050). Interviews and meetings with a wide variety of stakeholders, for the development of a climate change adaptation plan for the Pedieos watershed, has created even more uncertainties than climate change. Environmental-minded stakeholders suggested to demolish the dam and to return the watershed to its natural state and the water to downstream ecosystems. Agricultural producers would also like to see the return of stream flows, such that they can divert or impound the water for groundwater recharge and subsequent irrigation. Community leaders similarly prefer stream flows for the recharge of the alluvial river aquifers, to allow them to abstract more groundwater for community water supply. Downstream authorities have different concerns. Here the usually dry river bed serves as the drainage of the urban agglomeration of the capital of Nicosia; and has been identified as an area of potentially significant flood risk for the European Flood Directive (2007/60/EC). The largest storm event in the upstream area in the recent past occurred in January 1989, before the construction of the dam. The runoff totalled 3.1 million m3 in one day and 4.4 million m3 in two days. Thus, part of the runoff would have flown straight through the spillway of the 2.8 million m3 dam reservoir. Average annual precipitation in the highly sloping, forested upstream area is 500 mm, while stream flows average 4.7 million m3/yr (1981-2001). This results in an average runoff coefficient of 19% for the 45-km2 upstream area. Past observations, climate change projections and hydrologic models facilitate the development of sustainable adaptation solutions. However, reconciling the diverging visions and water demands of the stakeholders will be a tougher problem to solve. This research is supported by the European Union's FP7 BEWATER project (GA 612385).

Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

2012-01-01

The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two species were in the least risk category, while 20 species were in the highest risk category. The assessment showed that species respond independently to predicted climate change, suggesting that current plant assemblages may disassemble under predicted climate change scenarios. This report presents the results for each species in tables (Appendix A) and maps (14 for each species) in Appendix B.

Interpretation of Recent Temperature Trends in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duffy, P B; Bonfils, C; Lobell, D

2007-09-21

Regional-scale climate change and associated societal impacts result from large-scale (e.g. well-mixed greenhouse gases) and more local (e.g. land-use change) 'forcing' (perturbing) agents. It is essential to understand these forcings and climate responses to them, in order to predict future climate and societal impacts. California is a fine example of the complex effects of multiple climate forcings. The State's natural climate is diverse, highly variable, and strongly influenced by ENSO. Humans are perturbing this complex system through urbanization, irrigation, and emission of multiple types of aerosols and greenhouse gases. Despite better-than-average observational coverage, we are only beginning to understand themore » manifestations of these forcings in California's temperature record.« less

The Fate of Amazonian Ecosystems over the Coming Century Arising from Changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2 and Land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorcroft, P. R.; Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D. D. A.; Galbraith, D.; Moghim, S.; Levine, N. M.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Malhi, Y.; Longo, M.; Knox, R. G.; McKnight, S. L.; Wang, J.

2014-12-01

There is considerable interest and uncertainty regarding the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century in face of the combined impacts of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and on-going land transformation in the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate, CO2 and land-use change in the 21st century using three state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) driven by three representative, bias-corrected GCM climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under the SRES A2 scenario, coupled with two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected changes in precipitation regimes within the region: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%; however, the models predict that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and as a result sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and changes in fire frequency are predicted cause additional aboveground live biomass loss and changes in forest extent. The relative impact of land-use and fire dynamics versus the impacts of climate and CO2 on the Amazon varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenarios used and on the terrestrial biosphere model, highlighting the importance of improved understanding of all four factors -- future climate, CO2 fertilization effects, fire and land-use -- to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.

Knowledge of and attitudes toward climate change and its effects on health among nursing students: A multi-Arab country study.

PubMed

Felicilda-Reynaldo, Rhea Faye D; Cruz, Jonas Preposi; Alshammari, Farhan; Obaid, Khamees B; Rady, Hanan Ebrahim Abd El Aziz; Qtait, Mohammad; Alquwez, Nahed; Colet, Paolo C

2018-04-01

Climate change and its impact on health continues to receive inadequate attention in the nursing literature, especially in the Arab region. This study explored the knowledge of and attitudes toward climate change and its effect on health among nursing students from four Arab countries. A cross-sectional study was conducted among a convenience sample of 1,059 baccalaureate nursing students from four Arab countries using the New Ecological Paradigm scale and an adapted questionnaire. The findings indicate an average range of attitude toward the environment, with country of residence, type of community, academic-year level, and climate change related variables as significant factors influencing students' attitudes. A moderate level of knowledge about the potential health related impacts of climate change was revealed. Students from Saudi Arabia and Palestinian Territory reported a significantly higher level of knowledge than Egyptian and Iraqi students. Most of the respondents reported that all identified health related effects of climate change have already increased, while more than two-thirds reported that each of the health-related impacts would increase within the next 20 years. The findings underscore the need for more coverage of topics related to climate change and its health-related impacts in nursing education curricula in Arab countries. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Possible mechanisms of pollination failure in hybrid carrot seed and implications for industry in a changing climate.

PubMed

Broussard, Melissa Ann; Mas, Flore; Howlett, Brad; Pattemore, David; Tylianakis, Jason M

2017-01-01

Approximately one-third of our food globally comes from insect-pollinated crops. The dependence on pollinators has been linked to yield instability, which could potentially become worse in a changing climate. Insect-pollinated crops produced via hybrid breeding (20% of fruit and vegetable production globally) are especially at risk as they are even more reliant on pollinators than open-pollinated plants. We already observe a wide range of fruit and seed yields between different cultivars of the same crop species, and it is unknown how existing variation will be affected in a changing climate. In this study, we examined how three hybrid carrot varieties with differential performance in the field responded to three temperature regimes (cooler than the historical average, average, and warmer that the historical average). We tested how temperature affected the plants' ability to set seed (seed set, pollen viability) as well as attract pollinators (nectar composition, floral volatiles). We found that there were significant intrinsic differences in nectar phenolics, pollen viability, and seed set between the carrot varieties, and that higher temperatures did not exaggerate those differences. However, elevated temperature did negatively affect several characteristics relating to the attraction and reward of pollinators (lower volatile production and higher nectar sugar concentration) across all varieties, which may decrease the attractiveness of this already pollinator-limited crop. Given existing predictions of lower pollinator populations in a warmer climate, reduced attractiveness would add yet another challenge to future food production.

Possible mechanisms of pollination failure in hybrid carrot seed and implications for industry in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Mas, Flore; Howlett, Brad; Pattemore, David; Tylianakis, Jason M.

2017-01-01

Approximately one-third of our food globally comes from insect-pollinated crops. The dependence on pollinators has been linked to yield instability, which could potentially become worse in a changing climate. Insect-pollinated crops produced via hybrid breeding (20% of fruit and vegetable production globally) are especially at risk as they are even more reliant on pollinators than open-pollinated plants. We already observe a wide range of fruit and seed yields between different cultivars of the same crop species, and it is unknown how existing variation will be affected in a changing climate. In this study, we examined how three hybrid carrot varieties with differential performance in the field responded to three temperature regimes (cooler than the historical average, average, and warmer that the historical average). We tested how temperature affected the plants' ability to set seed (seed set, pollen viability) as well as attract pollinators (nectar composition, floral volatiles). We found that there were significant intrinsic differences in nectar phenolics, pollen viability, and seed set between the carrot varieties, and that higher temperatures did not exaggerate those differences. However, elevated temperature did negatively affect several characteristics relating to the attraction and reward of pollinators (lower volatile production and higher nectar sugar concentration) across all varieties, which may decrease the attractiveness of this already pollinator-limited crop. Given existing predictions of lower pollinator populations in a warmer climate, reduced attractiveness would add yet another challenge to future food production. PMID:28665949

Characterizing Vegetation Model Skill and Uncertainty in Simulated Ecosystem Response to Climate Change in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drapek, R. J.; Kim, J. B.

2013-12-01

We simulated ecosystem response to climate change in the USA and Canada at a 5 arc-minute grid resolution using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model and nine CMIP3 future climate projections as input. The climate projections were produced by 3 GCMs simulating 3 SRES emissions scenarios. We examined MC1 outputs for the conterminous USA by summarizing them by EPA level II and III ecoregions to characterize model skill and evaluate the magnitude and uncertainties of simulated ecosystem response to climate change. First, we evaluated model skill by comparing outputs from the recent historical period with benchmark datasets. Distribution of potential natural vegetation simulated by MC1 was compared with Kuchler's map. Above ground live carbon simulated by MC1 was compared with the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset. Fire return intervals calculated by MC1 were compared with maximum and minimum values compiled for the United States. Each EPA Level III Ecoregion was scored for average agreement with corresponding benchmark data and an average score was calculated for all three types of output. Greatest agreement with benchmark data happened in the Western Cordillera, the Ozark / Ouachita-Appalachian Forests, and the Southeastern USA Plains (EPA Level II Ecoregions). The lowest agreement happened in the Everglades and the Tamaulipas-Texas Semiarid Plain. For simulated ecosystem response to future climate projections we examined MC1 output for shifts in vegetation type, vegetation carbon, runoff, and biomass consumed by fire. Each ecoregion was scored for the amount of change from historical conditions for each variable and an average score was calculated. Smallest changes were forecast for Western Cordillera and Marine West Coast Forest ecosystems. Largest changes were forecast for the Cold Deserts, the Mixed Wood Plains, and the Central USA Plains. By combining scores of model skill for the historical period for each EPA Level 3 Ecoregion with scores representing the magnitude of ecosystem changes in the future, we identified high and low uncertainty ecoregions. The largest anticipated changes and the lowest measures of model skill coincide in the Central USA Plains and the Mixed Wood Plains. The combination of low model skill and high degree of ecosystem change elevate the importance of our uncertainty in this ecoregion. The highest projected changes coincide with relatively high model skill in the Cold Deserts. Climate adaptation efforts are the most likely to pay off in these regions. Finally, highest model skill and lowest anticipated changes coincide in the Western Cordillera and the Marine West Coast Forests. These regions may be relatively low-risk for climate change impacts when compared to the other ecoregions. These results represent only the first step in this type of analysis; there exist many ways to strengthen it. One, MC1 calibrations can be optimized using a structured optimization technique. Two, a larger set of climate projections can be used to capture a fuller range of GCMs and emissions scenarios. And three, employing an ensemble of vegetation models would make the analysis more robust.

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan

2017-03-01

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by midcentury and -35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at midcentury and -55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.