An assessment of the skid resistance effect on traffic safety under wet-pavement conditions.

PubMed

Pardillo Mayora, José M; Jurado Piña, Rafael

2009-07-01

Pavement-tire friction provides the grip that is required for maintaining vehicle control and for stopping in emergency situations. Statistically significant negative correlations of skid resistance values and wet-pavement accident rates have been found in previous research. Skid resistance measured with SCRIM and crash data from over 1750km of two-lane rural roads in the Spanish National Road System were analyzed to determine the influence of pavement conditions on safety and to assess the effects of improving pavement friction on safety. Both wet- and dry-pavement crash rates presented a decreasing trend as skid resistance values increased. Thresholds in SCRIM coefficient values associated with significant decreases in wet-pavement crash rates were determined. Pavement friction improvement schemes were found to yield significant reductions in wet-pavement crash rates averaging 68%. The results confirm the importance of maintaining adequate levels of pavement friction to safeguard traffic safety as well as the potential of pavement friction improvement schemes to achieve significant crash reductions.

Statistical analysis of vehicle crashes in Mississippi based on crash data from 2010 to 2014.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-15

Traffic crash data from 2010 to 2014 were collected by Mississippi Department of Transportation (MDOT) and extracted for the study. Three tasks were conducted in this study: (1) geographic distribution of crashes; (2) descriptive statistics of crash ...

Classification of rollovers according to crash severity.

PubMed

Digges, K; Eigen, A

2006-01-01

NASS/CDS 1995-2004 was used to classify rollovers according to severity. The rollovers were partitioned into two classes - rollover as the first event and rollover preceded by an impact with a fixed or non-fixed object. The populations of belted and unbelted were examined separately and combined. The average injury rate for the unbelted was five times that for the belted. Approximately 21% of the severe injuries suffered by belted occupants were in crashes with harmful events prior to the rollover that produced severe damage to the vehicle. This group carried a much higher injury risk than the average. A planar damage measure in addition to the rollover measure was required to adequately capture the crash severity of this population. For rollovers as the first event, approximately 1% of the serious injuries to belted occupants occurred during the first quarter-turn. Rollovers that were arrested during the 1 ( st ) quarter-turn carried a higher injury rate than average. The number of quarter-turns were grouped in various ways including the number of times the vehicle roof faces the ground (number of vehicle inversions). The number of vehicle inversions was found to be a statistically significant injury predictor for 78% of the belted and unbelted populations with MAIS 3+F injuries in rollovers. The remaining 22% required crash severity metrics in addition to the number of vehicle inversions.

Classification of Rollovers According to Crash Severity

PubMed Central

Digges, K.; Eigen, A.

2006-01-01

NASS/CDS 1995–2004 was used to classify rollovers according to severity. The rollovers were partitioned into two classes – rollover as the first event and rollover preceded by an impact with a fixed or non-fixed object. The populations of belted and unbelted were examined separately and combined. The average injury rate for the unbelted was five times that for the belted. Approximately 21% of the severe injuries suffered by belted occupants were in crashes with harmful events prior to the rollover that produced severe damage to the vehicle. This group carried a much higher injury risk than the average. A planar damage measure in addition to the rollover measure was required to adequately capture the crash severity of this population. For rollovers as the first event, approximately 1% of the serious injuries to belted occupants occurred during the first quarter-turn. Rollovers that were arrested during the 1st quarter-turn carried a higher injury rate than average. The number of quarter-turns were grouped in various ways including the number of times the vehicle roof faces the ground (number of vehicle inversions). The number of vehicle inversions was found to be a statistically significant injury predictor for 78% of the belted and unbelted populations with MAIS 3+F injuries in rollovers. The remaining 22% required crash severity metrics in addition to the number of vehicle inversions. PMID:16968634

Traffic crash statistics report, 2005

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

The information contained in this Traffic Crash Statistics booklet is extracted from law enforcement : agency long-form reports of traffic crashes. A law enforcement officer must submit a long-form : crash report when investigating: : Motor vehic...

Large truck crash facts 2005

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-02-01

This annual edition of Large Truck Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and property damage only crashes involving large trucks in 2005. Selected crash statistics on passenger vehicles are also presented for comparison pur...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2002

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

This publication, Illinois Traffic Crash Facts : and Statistics for 2002, is designed to provide an : overview of motor vehicle crash experience in : Illinois. In addition to a plethora of crash data, the : publication includes key events in th...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2004-2005

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

The 2004-2005 Illinois Crash Facts & Statistics publication : is designed to provide the public with an overview of motor : vehicle crashes that occur in Illinois. This publication not : only consists of crash data but includes information abou...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2001

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

This publication, Illinois Traffic Crash Facts : and Statistics for 2001, is designed to provide an : overview of motor vehicle crash experience in : Illinois. In addition to a plethora of crash data, the : publication includes key events in th...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2003

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

This publication, Illinois Traffic Crash Facts : and Statistics for 2003, is designed to provide an : overview of motor vehicle crash experience in : Illinois. In addition to a plethora of crash data, the : publication includes key events in th...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-09-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2010. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2007.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2007. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2008. 

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2008. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2011.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2011. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2013.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2013. Selected crash statistics on passenger vehicles are also presented ...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2009. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2012.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2012. Selected crash statistics on passenger vehicles are also presented ...

Comparing international crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-01

In order to examine national developments in traffic safety, crash statistics from several of the more safety, crash statistics from several of the more United States. Data obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the Internati...

General deterrence effects of U.S. statutory DUI fine and jail penalties: long-term follow-up in 32 states.

PubMed

Wagenaar, Alexander C; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred M; Erickson, Darin J; Ma, Linan; Tobler, Amy L; Komro, Kelli A

2007-09-01

We examined effects of state statutory changes in DUI fine or jail penalties for firsttime offenders from 1976 to 2002. A quasi-experimental time-series design was used (n=324 monthly observations). Four outcome measures of drivers involved in alcohol-related fatal crashes are: single-vehicle nighttime, low BAC (0.01-0.07g/dl), medium BAC (0.08-0.14g/dl), high BAC (>/=0.15g/dl). All analyses of BAC outcomes included multiple imputation procedures for cases with missing data. Comparison series of non-alcohol-related crashes were included to efficiently control for effects of other factors. Statistical models include state-specific Box-Jenkins ARIMA models, and pooled general linear mixed models. Twenty-six states implemented mandatory minimum fine policies and 18 states implemented mandatory minimum jail penalties. Estimated effects varied widely from state to state. Using variance weighted meta-analysis methods to aggregate results across states, mandatory fine policies are associated with an average reduction in fatal crash involvement by drivers with BAC>/=0.08g/dl of 8% (averaging 13 per state per year). Mandatory minimum jail policies are associated with a decline in single-vehicle nighttime fatal crash involvement of 6% (averaging 5 per state per year), and a decline in low-BAC cases of 9% (averaging 3 per state per year). No significant effects were observed for the other outcome measures. The overall pattern of results suggests a possible effect of mandatory fine policies in some states, but little effect of mandatory jail policies.

1999 Iowa crash facts : a summary of motor vehicle crash statistics on Iowa roadways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

All information concerning Iowa traffic crashes was taken from report forms : provided by investigating officers and drivers involved in crashes. : All statistics are gathered and calculated by the Iowa Department of Transportations Office of Driv...

1997 Iowa crash summary : a summary of motor vehicle crash statistics on Iowa roadways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

All information concerning Iowa : traffic crashes was taken from report forms provided by investigating officers and drivers involved in : crashes. : All statistics are gathered and calculated by the Iowa Department of Transportations Office of Dr...

1996 Iowa crash summary : a summary of motor vehicle crash statistics on Iowa roadways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

All information concerning Iowa : traffic crashes was taken from report forms provided by investigating officers and drivers involved in : crashes. : All statistics are gathered and calculated by the Iowa Department of Transportations Office of Dr...

1998 Iowa crash summary : a summary of motor vehicle crash statistics on Iowa roadways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

All information concerning Iowa : traffic crashes was taken from report forms provided by investigating officers and drivers involved in : crashes. : All statistics are gathered and calculated by the Iowa Department of Transportations Office of Dr...

An evaluation of the real-world safety effect of a lane change driver support system and characteristics of lane change crashes based on insurance claims data.

PubMed

Isaksson-Hellman, Irene; Lindman, Magdalena

2018-02-28

Lane changes, which frequently occur when vehicles travel on major roads, may contribute to critical situations that significantly affect the traffic flow and traffic safety. Thus, knowledge of lane change situations is important for infrastructure improvements as well as for driver support systems and automated driving development projects. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the crash avoidance performance of a lane change driver support system, the Blind Spot Information System (BLIS) in Volvo car models, and to describe the characteristics of lane change crashes by analyzing detailed information from insurance claim reports. An overall evaluation of the safety effect of BLIS was performed by analyzing crash rate differences in lane change situations for cars with and without the optionally mounted BLIS system based on a population of 380,000 insured vehicle years. Further, crashes in which the repair cost of the host vehicle exceeded approximately US$1,250 were selected and compared. Finally, the study examined different precrash factors and crash configurations, using in-depth insurance claims data from representative lane change crash cases including all severity levels in a population of more than 200,000 insured vehicle years. The technology did not significantly reduce the overall number of crashes when all types of lane change crashes and severity levels were considered, though a significant crash-reducing effect of 31% for BLIS cars was found when more severe crashes with a repair cost exceeding US$1,250 were analysed. Cars with the BLIS technology also have a 30% lower claim cost on average for reported lane change crashes, indicating reduced crash severity. When stratifying the data into specific situations, by collecting precrash information in a case-by-case study, the influence of BLIS was indicated to differ for the evaluated situations, although no significant results were found. For example, during general lane change maneuvers (i.e., not while exiting or entering highways or during weaving/merging situations) the crash rate was reduced by 14%, whereas in weaving/merging situations the crash rate increased. The insurance data analyzed provided useful information about real-world lane change crash characteristics by covering collisions in all crash severities and thus revealed information beyond what is available in, for example, data sets of police-reported crashes. This will guide further development of driver support systems. For crashes with repair cost exceeding US$1,250, a significant crash reduction was found, although the technology did not significantly reduce the total number of lane change crashes. An average lower insurance claim cost for cars equipped with the BLIS technology also indicated that the technology contributes to reduced crash severity even if crashes were not totally avoided. Stratifying the data into different lane change crash situations gave indications of the condition-specific performance of the system, even if the results were not statistically significant at the 95% level.

Effectiveness of an improved road safety policy in Ethiopia: an interrupted time series study.

PubMed

Abegaz, Teferi; Berhane, Yemane; Worku, Alemayehu; Assrat, Abebe

2014-05-31

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in implementing road safety policy by different low income countries. However; the evidence is scarce on its success in the reduction of crashes, injuries and deaths. This study was conducted to assess whether road crashes, injuries and fatalities was reduced following the road safety regulation introduced as of September 2007 by Oromia Regional State Transport Bureau. Routine road traffic accident data for the year 2002-2011were collected from sixteen traffic police offices. Data on average daily vehicle flow was obtained from the Ethiopian Road Authority. Interrupted time series design using segmented linear regression model was applied to estimate the effect of an improved road safety policy. A total of 4,053 crashes occurred on Addis Ababa - Adama/Hawassa main road. Of these crashes, almost half 46.4% (1,880) were property damage, 29.4% (1,193) were fatal and 24.2% (980) injury crashes, resulting 1,392 fatalities and 1,749 injuries. There were statistically significant reductions in non-injury crashes and deaths. Non-injury crash was reduced by 19% and fatality by 12.4% in the first year of implementing the revised transport safety regulation. Although revised road safety policy helped in reducing motor vehicle crashes and associated fatalities, the overall incidence rate is still very high. Further action is required to avoid unnecessary loss of lives.

Testing the Porcelli Sawtooth Trigger Module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bateman, G.; Nave, M. F. F.; Parail, V.

2005-10-01

The Porcelli sawtooth trigger model [1] is implemented as a module for the National Transport Code Collaboration Module Library [2] and is tested using BALDUR and JETTO integrated modeling simulations of JET and other tokamak discharges. Statistical techniques are used to compute the average sawtooth period and the random scatter in sawtooth periods obtained during selected time intervals in the simulations compared with the corresponding statistical measures obtained from experimental data. It is found that the results are affected systematically by the fraction of magnetic reconnection during each sawtooth crash and by the model that is used for transport within the sawtooth mixing region. The physical processes that affect the sawtooth cycle in the simulations are found to involve an interaction among magnetic diffusion, reheating within the sawtooth mixing region, the instabilities that trigger a sawtooth crash in the Porcelli model, and the magnetic reconnection produced by each sawtooth crash. [1] F. Porcelli, et al., Plasma Phys. Contol. Fusion 38 (1996) 2163. [2] A.H. Kritz, et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 164 (2004) 108; http://w3.pppl.gov/NTCC. Supported by DOE DE-FG02-92-ER-54141.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Washington, Simon P; Ivan, John N

2005-01-01

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states-perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed-and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros.

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 1999

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

This publication, Illinois Traffic Crash Facts : and Statistics for 1999, is designed to serve : your needs in researching and reviewing : motor vehicle crash involvement in Illinois. : Illinois continues to work to reduce traffic : deaths and ...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2000

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

This publication, Illinois Traffic Crash Facts : and Statistics for 2000, is designed to serve : your needs in researching and reviewing : motor vehicle crash involvement in Illinois. : Illinois continues to work to reduce traffic : deaths and ...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 1998

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

This publication, Illinois Traffic Crash Facts : and Statistics for 1998, is designed to serve : your needs in researching and reviewing : motor vehicle crash involvement in Illinois. : Illinois continues to work to reduce traffic : deaths and ...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 1997

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

This publication, Illinois Traffic Crash Facts : and Statistics for 1997, is designed to serve : your needs in researching and reviewing : motor vehicle crash involvement in Illinois. : Illinois continues to work to reduce traffic : deaths and ...

Crash analysis, statistics & information notebook 1996-2003

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-11-01

The Department of Motor Vehicle Safety is proud to present the Crash Analysis, Statistics & : Information (CASI) Notebook 1996-2003. DMVS developed the CASI Notebooks to provide : straightforward, easy to understand crash information. Each page or ta...

Rear-End Crashes: Problem Size Assessment And Statistical Description

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-05-01

KEYWORDS : RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OR R&D, ADVANCED VEHICLE CONTROL & SAFETY SYSTEMS OR AVCSS, INTELLIGENT VEHICLE INITIATIVE OR IVI : THIS DOCUMENT PRESENTS PROBLEM SIZE ASSESSMENTS AND STATISTICAL CRASH DESCRIPTION FOR REAR-END CRASHES, INC...

Traffic crash statistics report, 2010

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

This report is compiled from long form traffic crash reports submitted by state and local law enforcement agencies and the Department aggregates the information for this report. In general, the 2010 crash statistics show a positive trend in decreases...

Traffic crash statistics report, 2008

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

This report is compiled from long form traffic crash reports submitted by state and local law enforcement agencies and the Department aggregates the information for this report. In general, the 2008 crash statistics show a positive trend in decreases...

Traffic crash statistics report, 2009

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-06-23

This report is compiled from long form traffic crash reports submitted by state and local law enforcement agencies. The Department summarizes all the submitted information for this report. in general, the 2009 crash statistics show a positive trend i...

Fatigue and crashes: the case of freight transport in Colombia.

PubMed

Torregroza-Vargas, Nathaly M; Bocarejo, Juan Pablo; Ramos-Bonilla, Juan P

2014-11-01

Truck drivers have been involved in a significant number of road fatalities in Colombia. To identify variables that could be associated with crashes in which truck drivers are involved, a logistic regression model was constructed. The model had as the response variable a dichotomous variable that included the presence or absence of a crash during a specific trip. As independent variables the model included information regarding a driver's work shift, with variables that could be associated with driver's fatigue. The model also included potential confounders related with road conditions. With the model, it was possible to determine the odds ratio of a crash in relation to several variables, adjusting for confounding. To collect the information about the trips included in the model, a survey among truck drivers was conducted. The results suggest strong associations between crashes (i.e., some of them statistically significant) with the number of stops made during the trip, and the average time of each stop. Survey analysis allowed us to identify the practices that contribute to generating fatigue and unhealthy conditions on the road among professional drivers. A review of national regulations confirmed the lack of legislation on this topic. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relating crash frequency and severity: evaluating the effectiveness of shoulder rumble strips on reducing fatal and major injury crashes.

PubMed

Wu, Kun-Feng; Donnell, Eric T; Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2014-06-01

To approach the goal of "Toward Zero Deaths," there is a need to develop an analysis paradigm to better understand the effects of a countermeasure on reducing the number of severe crashes. One of the goals in traffic safety research is to search for an effective treatment to reduce fatal and major injury crashes, referred to as severe crashes. To achieve this goal, the selection of promising countermeasures is of utmost importance, and relies on the effectiveness of candidate countermeasures in reducing severe crashes. Although it is important to precisely evaluate the effectiveness of candidate countermeasures in reducing the number of severe crashes at a site, the current state-of-the-practice often leads to biased estimates. While there have been a few advanced statistical models developed to mitigate the problem in practice, these models are computationally difficult to estimate because severe crashes are dispersed spatially and temporally, and cannot be integrated into the Highway Safety Manual framework, which develops a series of safety performance functions and crash modification factors to predict the number of crashes. Crash severity outcomes are generally integrated into the Highway Safety Manual using deterministic distributions rather than statistical models. Accounting for the variability in crash severity as a function geometric design, traffic flow, and other roadway and roadside features is afforded by estimating statistical models. Therefore, there is a need to develop a new analysis paradigm to resolve the limitations in the current Highway Safety Manual methods. We propose an approach which decomposes the severe crash frequency into a function of the change in the total number of crashes and the probability of a crash becoming a severe crash before and after a countermeasure is implemented. We tested this approach by evaluating the effectiveness of shoulder rumble strips on reducing the number of severe crashes. A total of 310 segments that have had shoulder rumble strips installed during 2002-2009 are included in the analysis. It was found that shoulder rumble strips reduce the total number of crashes, but have no statistically significant effect on reducing the probability of a severe crash outcome. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methods for analyzing matched designs with double controls: excess risk is easily estimated and misinterpreted when evaluating traffic deaths.

PubMed

Redelmeier, Donald A; Tibshirani, Robert J

2018-06-01

To demonstrate analytic approaches for matched studies where two controls are linked to each case and events are accumulating counts rather than binary outcomes. A secondary intent is to clarify the distinction between total risk and excess risk (unmatched vs. matched perspectives). We review past research testing whether elections can lead to increased traffic risks. The results are reinterpreted by analyzing both the total count of individuals in fatal crashes and the excess count of individuals in fatal crashes, each time accounting for the matched double controls. Overall, 1,546 individuals were in fatal crashes on the 10 election days (average = 155/d), and 2,593 individuals were in fatal crashes on the 20 control days (average = 130/d). Poisson regression of total counts yielded a relative risk of 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.12-1.27). Poisson regression of excess counts yielded a relative risk of 3.22 (95% confidence interval: 2.72-3.80). The discrepancy between analyses of total counts and excess counts replicated with alternative statistical models and was visualized in graphical displays. Available approaches provide methods for analyzing count data in matched designs with double controls and help clarify the distinction between increases in total risk and increases in excess risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wrong-way driving crashes: A random-parameters ordered probit analysis of injury severity.

PubMed

Jalayer, Mohammad; Shabanpour, Ramin; Pour-Rouholamin, Mahdi; Golshani, Nima; Zhou, Huaguo

2018-04-23

In the context of traffic safety, whenever a motorized road user moves against the proper flow of vehicle movement on physically divided highways or access ramps, this is referred to as wrong-way driving (WWD). WWD is notorious for its severity rather than frequency. Based on data from the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, an average of 355 deaths occur in the U.S. each year due to WWD. This total translates to 1.34 fatalities per fatal WWD crashes, whereas the same rate for other crash types is 1.10. Given these sobering statistics, WWD crashes, and specifically their severity, must be meticulously analyzed using the appropriate tools to develop sound and effective countermeasures. The objectives of this study were to use a random-parameters ordered probit model to determine the features that best describe WWD crashes and to evaluate the severity of injuries in WWD crashes. This approach takes into account unobserved effects that may be associated with roadway, environmental, vehicle, crash, and driver characteristics. To that end and given the rareness of WWD events, 15 years of crash data from the states of Alabama and Illinois were obtained and compiled. Based on this data, a series of contributing factors including responsible driver characteristics, temporal variables, vehicle characteristics, and crash variables are determined, and their impacts on the severity of injuries are explored. An elasticity analysis was also performed to accurately quantify the effect of significant variables on injury severity outcomes. According to the obtained results, factors such as driver age, driver condition, roadway surface conditions, and lighting conditions significantly contribute to the injury severity of WWD crashes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical analysis of the national crash severity study data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-08-01

This is the Final Report on a two-year statistical analysis of the data collected in the National Crash Severity Study (NCSS). The analysis presented is primarily concerned with the relationship between occupant injury severity and the crash conditio...

Traffic crash statistics report, 1998

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

The information contained in this Traffic Crash Facts booklet is extracted from law : enforcement agency long-form reports of traffic crashes. A law enforcement officer must submit a : long-form crash report when investigating: : Motor vehicle crashe...

Traffic crash statistics report, 1995

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

The information contained in this Traffic Crash Facts booklet is extracted from law enforcement : agency long-form reports of traffic crashes. A law enforcement officer must submit a long-form crash report : when investigating: : Motor vehicle crashe...

Traffic crash statistics report, 1996

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-11-01

The information contained in this Traffic Crash Facts booklet is extracted from law enforcement : agency long-form reports of traffic crashes. A law enforcement officer must submit a long-form crash report : when investigating: : Motor vehicle crashe...

Traffic crash statistics report, 1994

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-01

The information contained in this Traffic Crash Data booklet is extracted from law enforcement : agency long-form reports of traffic crashes. A law enforcement officer must submit a long-form crash report : when investigating: : Motor vehicle crashes...

Traffic crash statistics report, 2004

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

The information contained in this Traffic Crash Data booklet is extracted from law enforcement : agency long-form reports of traffic crashes. A law enforcement officer must submit a long-form crash report : when investigating: : Motor vehicle crashes...

Traffic crash statistics report, 1997

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The information contained in this Traffic Crash Facts booklet is extracted from law enforcement agency : long-form reports of traffic crashes. A law enforcement officer must submit a long-form crash report when : investigating: : Motor vehicle crashe...

How accurate is accident data in road safety research? An application of vehicle black box data regarding pedestrian-to-taxi accidents in Korea.

PubMed

Chung, Younshik; Chang, IlJoon

2015-11-01

Recently, the introduction of vehicle black box systems or in-vehicle video event data recorders enables the driver to use the system to collect more accurate crash information such as location, time, and situation at the pre-crash and crash moment, which can be analyzed to find the crash causal factors more accurately. This study presents the vehicle black box system in brief and its application status in Korea. Based on the crash data obtained from the vehicle black box system, this study analyzes the accuracy of the crash data collected from existing road crash data recording method, which has been recorded by police officers based on accident parties' statements or eyewitness's account. The analysis results show that the crash data observed by the existing method have an average of 84.48m of spatial difference and standard deviation of 157.75m as well as average 29.05min of temporal error and standard deviation of 19.24min. Additionally, the average and standard deviation of crash speed errors were found to be 9.03km/h and 7.21km/h, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Average male and female virtual dummy model (BioRID and EvaRID) simulations with two seat concepts in the Euro NCAP low severity rear impact test configuration.

PubMed

Linder, Astrid; Holmqvist, Kristian; Svensson, Mats Y

2018-05-01

Soft tissue neck injuries, also referred to as whiplash injuries, which can lead to long term suffering accounts for more than 60% of the cost of all injuries leading to permanent medical impairment for the insurance companies, with respect to injuries sustained in vehicle crashes. These injuries are sustained in all impact directions, however they are most common in rear impacts. Injury statistics have since the mid-1960s consistently shown that females are subject to a higher risk of sustaining this type of injury than males, on average twice the risk of injury. Furthermore, some recently developed anti-whiplash systems have revealed they provide less protection for females than males. The protection of both males and females should be addresses equally when designing and evaluating vehicle safety systems to ensure maximum safety for everyone. This is currently not the case. The norm for crash test dummies representing humans in crash test laboratories is an average male. The female part of the population is not represented in tests performed by consumer information organisations such as NCAP or in regulatory tests due to the absence of a physical dummy representing an average female. Recently, the world first virtual model of an average female crash test dummy was developed. In this study, simulations were run with both this model and an average male dummy model, seated in a simplified model of a vehicle seat. The results of the simulations were compared to earlier published results from simulations run in the same test set-up with a vehicle concepts seat. The three crash pulse severities of the Euro NCAP low severity rear impact test were applied. The motion of the neck, head and upper torso were analysed in addition to the accelerations and the Neck Injury Criterion (NIC). Furthermore, the response of the virtual models was compared to the response of volunteers as well as the average male model, to that of the response of a physical dummy model. Simulations with the virtual male and female dummy models revealed differences in dynamic response related to the crash severity, as well as between the two dummies in the two different seat models. For the comparison of the response of the virtual models to the response of the volunteers and the physical dummy model, the peak angular motion of the first thoracic vertebra as found in the volunteer tests and mimicked by the physical dummy were not of the same magnitude in the virtual models. The results of the study highlight the need for an extended test matrix that includes an average female dummy model to evaluate the level of occupant protection different seats provide in vehicle crashes. This would provide developers with an additional tool to ensure that both male and female occupants receive satisfactory protection and promote seat concepts that provide the best possible protection for the whole adult population. This study shows that using the mathematical models available today can provide insights suitable for future testing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An illustrated analysis of North Carolina traffic crash statistics for 2005

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

Comparing the statistics of 2004 with 2005, there : was a 1.7% decrease in the number of fatalities, and : a 3.6% decrease in the number of traffic crashes : reported. A crash occurred every 2.4 minutes and a : person was killed every 5.7 hours on ou...

2004 Wisconsin traffic crash facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-07-01

2004 Facts and Figures - 784 persons were killed in Wisconsin motor vehicle traffic crashes. This is an average of two lives lost each day on Wisconsin trafficways. - 55,258 persons were injured in 38,451 reported injury crashes and 714 fatal crashes...

A METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE RADIALLY-AVERAGED EFFECTIVE IMPACT AREA FOR AN AIRCRAFT CRASH INTO A STRUCTURE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, William C.

This report presents a methodology for deriving the equations which can be used for calculating the radially-averaged effective impact area for a theoretical aircraft crash into a structure. Conventionally, a maximum effective impact area has been used in calculating the probability of an aircraft crash into a structure. Whereas the maximum effective impact area is specific to a single direction of flight, the radially-averaged effective impact area takes into consideration the real life random nature of the direction of flight with respect to a structure. Since the radially-averaged effective impact area is less than the maximum effective impact area, themore » resulting calculated probability of an aircraft crash into a structure is reduced.« less

The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun-Xian; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Yang, Ai-Jun; Tang, Nian-Sheng

2017-05-01

In this article we investigate the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. Bayesian approach, Heston model and statistical-physical method are considered. Specifically, Heston model and an effective potential are employed to address the dynamic changes of stock price. Bayesian approach has been utilized to estimate the Heston model's unknown parameters. Statistical physical method is used to investigate the occurrence of stock market crash by calculating the mean time-limited crash rate. The real financial data from the Shanghai Composite Index is analyzed with the proposed methods. The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price is used to describe the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. The monotonous and nonmonotonous behaviors are observed in the behavior of the mean time-limited crash rate versus volatility of stock for various cross correlation coefficient between volatility and price. Also a minimum occurrence of stock market crash matching an optimal volatility is discovered.

Statistical Signs of Social Influence on Suicides

PubMed Central

Melo, Hygor Piaget M.; Moreira, André A.; Batista, Élcio; Makse, Hernán A.; Andrade, José S.

2014-01-01

By treating the suicide as a social fact, Durkheim envisaged that suicide rates should be determined by the connections between people and society. Under the same framework, he considered that crime is bound up with the fundamental conditions of all social life. The social effect on the occurrence of homicides has been previously substantiated, and confirmed here, in terms of a superlinear scaling relation: by doubling the population of a Brazilian city results in an average increment of 135% in the number of homicides, rather than the expected isometric increase of 100%, as found, for example, for the mortality due to car crashes. Here we present statistical signs of the social influence on the suicide occurrence in cities. Differently from homicides (superlinear) and fatal events in car crashes (isometric), we find sublinear scaling behavior between the number of suicides and city population, with allometric power-law exponents, β = 0.84 ± 0.02 and 0.87 ± 0.01, for all cities in Brazil and US counties, respectively. Also for suicides in US, but using the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), we obtain β = 0.88 ± 0.01. PMID:25174706

Statistical Signs of Social Influence on Suicides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, Hygor Piaget M.; Moreira, André A.; Batista, Élcio; Makse, Hernán A.; Andrade, José S.

2014-09-01

By treating the suicide as a social fact, Durkheim envisaged that suicide rates should be determined by the connections between people and society. Under the same framework, he considered that crime is bound up with the fundamental conditions of all social life. The social effect on the occurrence of homicides has been previously substantiated, and confirmed here, in terms of a superlinear scaling relation: by doubling the population of a Brazilian city results in an average increment of 135% in the number of homicides, rather than the expected isometric increase of 100%, as found, for example, for the mortality due to car crashes. Here we present statistical signs of the social influence on the suicide occurrence in cities. Differently from homicides (superlinear) and fatal events in car crashes (isometric), we find sublinear scaling behavior between the number of suicides and city population, with allometric power-law exponents, β = 0.84 +/- 0.02 and 0.87 +/- 0.01, for all cities in Brazil and US counties, respectively. Also for suicides in US, but using the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), we obtain β = 0.88 +/- 0.01.

Statistical signs of social influence on suicides.

PubMed

Melo, Hygor Piaget M; Moreira, André A; Batista, Élcio; Makse, Hernán A; Andrade, José S

2014-09-01

By treating the suicide as a social fact, Durkheim envisaged that suicide rates should be determined by the connections between people and society. Under the same framework, he considered that crime is bound up with the fundamental conditions of all social life. The social effect on the occurrence of homicides has been previously substantiated, and confirmed here, in terms of a superlinear scaling relation: by doubling the population of a Brazilian city results in an average increment of 135% in the number of homicides, rather than the expected isometric increase of 100%, as found, for example, for the mortality due to car crashes. Here we present statistical signs of the social influence on the suicide occurrence in cities. Differently from homicides (superlinear) and fatal events in car crashes (isometric), we find sublinear scaling behavior between the number of suicides and city population, with allometric power-law exponents, β = 0.84 ± 0.02 and 0.87 ± 0.01, for all cities in Brazil and US counties, respectively. Also for suicides in US, but using the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), we obtain β = 0.88 ± 0.01.

2010 Wisconsin traffic crash facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

562 persons were killed in Wisconsin motor vehicle traffic crashes. This is an average of just over one life lost each day on Wisconsin traffic arteries. : 40,889 persons were injured in 29,380 reported injury crashes and 517 fatal crashes. 3,845, or...

Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2003-2010 Passenger Cars and LTVs”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom

NHTSA recently completed a logistic regression analysis updating its 2003, 2010, and 2012 studies of the relationship between vehicle mass and US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane 2010, Kahane 2012, Puckett 2016). The new study updates the 2012 analysis using FARS data from 2005 to 2011 for model year 2003 to 2010. Using the updated databases, NHTSA estimates that reducing vehicle mass by 100 pounds while holding footprint fixed would increase fatality risk per VMT by 1.49% for lighter-than-average cars and by 0.50% for heavierthan- average cars, but reduce risk by 0.10% for lighter-than-average light-duty trucks, bymore » 0.71% for heavier-than-average light-duty trucks, and by 0.99% for CUVs/minivans. Using a jack knife method to estimate the statistical uncertainty of these point estimates, NHTSA finds that none of these estimates are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level; however, the 1.49% increase in risk associated with mass reduction in lighter-than-average cars, and the 0.71% and 0.99% decreases in risk associated with mass reduction in heavier-than-average light trucks and CUVs/minivans, are statistically significant at the 90% confidence interval. The effect of mass reduction on risk that NHTSA estimated in 2016 is more beneficial than in its 2012 study, particularly for light trucks and CUVs/minivans. The 2016 NHTSA analysis estimates that reducing vehicle footprint by one square foot while holding mass constant would increase fatality risk per VMT by 0.28% in cars, by 0.38% in light trucks, and by 1.18% in CUVs and minivans.This report replicates the 2016 NHTSA analysis, and reproduces their main results. This report uses the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, which are smaller than the intervals NHTSA estimated using a jack-knife technique that accounts for the sampling error in the FARS fatality and state crash data. In addition to reproducing the NHTSA results, this report also examines the NHTSA data in slightly different ways to get a deeper understanding of the relationship between vehicle weight, footprint, and safety. The results of the NHTSA baseline results, and these alternative analyses, are summarized in Table ES.1; statistically significant estimates, based on the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, are shown in red in the tables. We found that NHTSA’s reasonable assumption that all vehicles will have ESC installed by 2017 in its baseline regression model slightly increases the estimated increase in risk from mass reduction in cars, but substantially decreases the estimated increase in risk from footprint reduction in all three vehicle types (Alternative 1 in Table ES.1; explained in more detail in Section 2.1 of this report). This is because NHTSA projects ESC to substantially reduce the number of fatalities in rollovers and crashes with stationary objects, and mass reduction appears to reduce risk, while footprint reduction appears to increase risk, in these types of crashes, particularly in cars and CUVs/minivans. A single regression model including all crash types results in slightly different estimates of the relationship between decreasing mass and risk, as shown in Alternative 2 in Table ES.1.« less

Commercial bus crashes in North Carolina 1995-1999

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

Tables and figures are shown to depict a statistical representation of commercial bus crashes in North Carolina. Information displayed includes crash frequency, crashes by county, accident severity, time of day, month of the year, class of roadway, r...

Quantifying roadside assessment for highway safety.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-09-01

Many of Kentuckys two-lane rural roads pose an above average risk for fixed object crashes. In Kentucky, run-off-road (ROR) collisions with fixed objects account for 18.9% of all crashes and 41.6% of fatal crashes. Accordingly, ROR crashes are a s...

2000 Iowa crash facts : a summary of motor vehicle crash statistics on Iowa roadways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

All statistics are gathered and calculated by the Iowa Department of Transportations Office of Driver Services. National statistics : are obtained from Traffic Safety Facts 2000 published by the U.S. Department of Transportations National...

Perception-based road hazard identification with Internet support.

PubMed

Tarko, Andrew P; DeSalle, Brian R

2003-01-01

One of the most important tasks faced by highway agencies is identifying road hazards. Agencies use crash statistics to detect road intersections and segments where the frequency of crashes is excessive. With the crash-based method, a dangerous intersection or segment can be pointed out only after a sufficient number of crashes occur. A more proactive method is needed, and motorist complaints may be able to assist agencies in detecting road hazards before crashes occur. This paper investigates the quality of safety information reported by motorists and the effectiveness of hazard identification based on motorist reports, which were collected with an experimental Internet website. It demonstrates that the intersections pointed out by motorists tended to have more crashes than other intersections. The safety information collected through the website was comparable to 2-3 months of crash data. It was concluded that although the Internet-based method could not substitute for the traditional crash-based methods, its joint use with crash statistics might be useful in detecting new hazards where crash data had been collected for a short time.

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2010

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

The number of reported motor vehicle crashes decreased from the previous year to fewer than 290,000 crashes in calendar year 2010. In addition, the number of persons injured in crashes dropped below 89,000 and the number of fatalities on Illinois roa...

Crashes involving farm tractors and other farm vehicles/equipment in North Carolina 1995-1999

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

Tables and figures are shown to depict a statistical representation of crashes involving farm tractors and other farm vehicles or equipment, in North Carolina. Information displayed includes crash frequency, crashes by county, accident severity, type...

Pre-crash scenario framework for crash avoidance systems based on vehicle-to-vehicle communications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-13

This paper prioritizes and statistically describes precrash : scenarios as a basis for the identification of : crash avoidance functions enhanced or enabled by : vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication technology. : Pre-crash scenarios depict vehicle ...

Characteristics and contributory causes related to large truck crashes (phase II) : all crashes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-03-01

Statistics clearly demonstrate that large-truck crashes contribute to a significant percentage of high-severity crashes. It is : therefore important for the highway safety community to identify the characteristics and contributory causes of these typ...

Spatially referenced crash data system for application to commercial motor vehicle crashes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-05-01

The Maryland Spatial Analysis of Crashes (MSAC) project involves the design of a : prototype of a geographic information system (GIS) for the State of Maryland that has : the capability of providing online crash information and statistical informatio...

Developing Louisiana crash reduction factors : [tech summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

Although, like the rest of the country, Louisiana has made great strides in reducing the number of crashes, particularly : fatal crashes, in recent years, our fatal crash rate of 1.56 is still higher than the national average of 1.10 in 2010. The vis...

Investigation of the Performance of Safety Systems for Protection of the Elderly

PubMed Central

Augenstein, J.; Digges, K; Bahouth, G.; Dalmotas, D.; Perdeck, E.; Stratton, J.

2005-01-01

This study investigates injury occurrence for belted occupants as a function of age. An analysis of NASS/CDS 1997–2003 data was conducted to determine crash involvement rates and injury rates for front seat occupants versus mean occupant age. In frontal and near-side crashes, the average age of MAIS 3+ belted front seat occupants injured in crashes less severe than 15 mph is of the order of 50 years. The average age of the population exposed to crashes less severe than 15 mph is under 40 years old. The crash exposure and frequency if injuries to the elderly were both found to be the highest in low severity crashes. The chest is the most frequent body region injured for the elderly. These findings suggest the need for more benign safety systems to protect the elderly in low severity crashes. Design of safety systems for the elderly should give priority to reducing the chest loading in low severity frontal and near-side crashes. PMID:16179159

Temporal factors in motor-vehicle crash deaths: Ten years later.

PubMed

Weast, Rebecca

2018-06-01

To assess trends in traffic fatalities on several temporal scales: year to year, by month, by day of week, and by time of day, to determine why some times correspond with higher rates of crash deaths, and to assess how these trends relate to age, the role of the deceased, and alcohol consumption. Traffic fatalities were identified using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) for 1998 through 2014 and assessed for their time of occurrence. Three days that, on average, contained particularly high numbers of crash deaths were then assessed in greater detail, considering the age of the deceased, role of the deceased (vehicle occupant, bicyclist, motorcyclist, or pedestrian), and the blood alcohol content of either the driver (for passenger vehicle occupants) or the deceased. Annual crash fatality totals were much lower in 2014 than in 1998, but the decrease was not steady; a marked drop in crash deaths occurred after 2007 and continued until 2014. On average the most fatalities per day occurred in July and August (116 per day), followed closely by June, September, and October. During the week, the greatest number of fatalities on average occur on weekend days, and during the day the most fatalities tend to occur between the hours of 3p.m. and 7p.m. Holidays like Independence Day and New Year's Day show elevated crash fatalities, and a greater percentage of these crashes involved alcohol, when compared with adjacent days. Certain days and times of year stand out as posing an elevated crash risk, and even with the decrease in average daily fatalities over the past decade, these days and times of year have remained consistent. These results indicate focused areas for continued efforts to reduce fatal crashes. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of test scenarios for off-roadway crash countermeasures based on crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-09-01

This report presents the results from an analysis of off-roadway crashes and proposes a set of crash-imminent scenarios to objectively test countermeasure systems for light vehicles (passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and pickup trucks) ba...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2008

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

The 2008 Illinois Crash Facts & Statistics includes : data that illustrate Illinois safety accomplishments and : provides information about key events in the history of : traffic-safety related legislation. Summaries of safety : belt usage, ...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2007

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

The 2007 Illinois Crash Facts & Statistics includes : data that illustrate these accomplishments and also : provides information about key events in the history of : traffic safety-related legislation. Also included, are : summaries of motorcyc...

Investigating the Impact of Lack of Motorcycle Annual Average Daily Traffic Data in Crash Modeling and the Estimation of Crash Modification Factors

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The development of safety performance functions (SPFs) and crash modification factors (CMFs) requires data on traffic exposure. The analysis of motorcycle crashes can be especially challenging in this regard because few jurisdictions collect motorcyc...

Crash risk analysis during fog conditions using real-time traffic data.

PubMed

Wu, Yina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

2018-05-01

This research investigates the changes of traffic characteristics and crash risks during fog conditions. Using real-time traffic flow and weather data at two regions in Florida, the traffic patterns at the fog duration were compared to the traffic patterns at the clear duration. It was found that the average 5-min speed and the average 5-min volume were prone to decreasing during fog. Based on previous studies, a "Crash Risk Increase Indicator (CRII)" was proposed to explore the differences of crash risk between fog and clear conditions. A binary logistic regression model was applied to link the increase of crash risks with traffic flow characteristics. The results suggested that the proposed indicator worked well in evaluating the increase of crash risk under fog condition. It was indicated that the crash risk was prone to increase at ramp vicinities in fog conditions. Also, the average 5-min volume during fog and the lane position are important factors for crash risk increase. The differences between the regions were also explored in this study. The results indicated that the locations with heavier traffic or locations at the lanes that were closest to the median in Region 2 were more likely to observe an increase in crash risks in fog conditions. It is expected that the proposed indicator can help identify the dangerous traffic status under fog conditions and then proper ITS technologies can be implemented to enhance traffic safety when the visibility declines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial analysis and socio-economic burden of road crashes in south-western Nigeria.

PubMed

Ipingbemi, Olusiyi

2008-06-01

Road traffic accidents are a major health problem in Nigeria. Death and injuries resulting from road crashes in the country have been on the increase over the years. For instance, fatality rate rose from 5.3 in 1970 to 5.8 in 2005. The purpose of the paper is to assess the pattern and socio-economic burden of road crashes on road accident victims in south-western Nigeria. The study relied on the administration of 438 questionnaires to road accident victims in both public and private hospitals in south-western Nigeria. The data were presented using descriptive statistics. Findings indicated that more than 70% of the accident victims were within the productive age group of between 15-45 years, with over 60% of them living below the poverty line. Motorcycles and buses accounted for 70% of the vehicles while about 40% of the victims were pedestrians. Each victim on average spent a minimum of US$17 per day on medical expenses and had at least one person attached to him/her throughout the period of admission. This has grave implications on the welfare of the families and the socio-economic development of the country. The paper calls for the use of preventive methods and post-crash management initiatives in order to reduce the magnitude and burden of road crashes on members of the society in south-western Nigeria.

Consideration of driver home county prohibition and alcohol-related vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Schulte Gary, Sarah Lynn; Aultman-Hall, Lisa; McCourt, Matt; Stamatiadis, Nick

2003-09-01

This study examines the characteristics of alcohol-related crashes in wet versus dry counties in the state of Kentucky, USA and incorporates the location of driver residences through use of geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Between 1991 and 1997, 39344 alcohol-related crashes by Kentucky residents on Kentucky State roads were reported. The location of the crash and the home ZIP code from the driver's address were used to consider distance from home in the GIS. Analysis of the crash data revealed that a similar proportion of crashes in wet and dry counties are alcohol-related but that a higher proportion of dry counties residents are involved in an alcohol-related crash. However, when the distance from home variable is considered, several results suggest that dry county residents may be driving further when consuming alcohol. In part due to the rural nature of dry counties, drivers from dry counties have both alcohol-related and non-alcohol related crashes farther from their homes than residents from wet counties. Alcohol-related crashes by dry county residents in wet counties are the greatest average distance from home while crashes by wet county residents in wet counties are the smallest average distance. Drivers from dry counties over 21 years of age have alcohol-related crashes significantly farther from home than those under 21 who would not legally be admitted to drinking establishments in the wet counties. Furthermore, residents from dry counties that do not border wet counties have alcohol-related crashes on average farther from home than the border county residents. These last three results provide circumstantial evidence that some dry county drivers may be driving to wet counties to consume alcohol thus increasing impaired driving exposure. In conclusion, by considering crash location and driver residence, these findings indicate that county-level prohibition is not necessarily effective in improving highway safety.

Investigating the Effects of Side Airbag Deployment in Real-World Crashes Using Crash Comparison Techniques

PubMed Central

Loftis, Kathryn L.; Weaver, Ashley A.; Stitzel, Joel D.

2011-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate side airbag (SAB) deployment in near side crashes and compare injuries and contact points between occupants with and without SAB deployment. Using NASS 2000–2008 and selecting for near side cases, with PDOF ± 20 degrees from 90 or 270, for non-pregnant adult belted occupants, there were 20,253 (weighted) SAB deployments. NASS showed that SABs have been increasing within the fleet, comprising 2% of airbags in 2000 and increasing to 33% of airbags in 2008. To investigate deployed SABs, we developed a three-step methology to pair CIREN cases to study the effects of deployment on occupant outcome. The first step involved extracting near side impacts from CIREN with adult, non-pregnant occupants seated in row 1 (drivers or right front passengers). In the second step, each case was quantitatively compared to FMVSS 214 barrier test standards using a 6 point similarity scoring system. Cases scoring at least 3 points were then qualitatively analyzed and 33 pairs of cases of the same vehicle make/model but opposite SAB status were chosen. Occupants with deployed SAB had reduced occurrences and severity of head and face, neck and cervical spine, and thoracic injuries and fewer injurious contacts to side components including the door, a-pillar, and window sill. SAB deployment was statistically significant for reducing occupant MAIS and ISS and thorax airbags were statistically significant for reducing thoracic and neck/cervical spine injury severity. The average ISS with SAB deployment was 21, while the average ISS of those without was 33. This study establishes methods for performing comparisons between CIREN cases based on regulatory conditions and shows injury reduction in key body regions with SAB deployment. PMID:22105386

Sleep-deprived young drivers and the risk for crash: the DRIVE prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Martiniuk, Alexandra L C; Senserrick, Teresa; Lo, Serigne; Williamson, Ann; Du, Wei; Grunstein, Ronald R; Woodward, Mark; Glozier, Nick; Stevenson, Mark; Norton, Robyn; Ivers, Rebecca Q

2013-07-01

Short sleep duration is common in adolescents and young adults, and short sleep duration is a risk factor for motor vehicle crash. To assess the association between hours of sleep and the risk for motor vehicle crash, including the time of day of crash and types of crash (single, multiple vehicle, run off road, and intersection). Prospective cohort study. New South Wales, Australia. Questionnaire responses were obtained from 20,822 newly licensed drivers aged 17 to 24 years. Participants held a first-stage provisional license between June 2003 and December 2004 prospectively linked to licensing and police-reported crash data, with an average of 2 years of follow-up. Analyses were conducted on a subsample of 19,327 participants for which there was full information. Sleeping 6 or fewer hours per night. The main outcome variable was police-reported crash. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to investigate the role of sleep duration on the risk for crash. On average, those who reported sleeping 6 or fewer hours per night had an increased risk for crash compared with those who reported sleeping more than 6 hours (relative risk [RR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.04-1.41). Less weekend sleep was significantly associated with an increased risk for run-off-road crashes (RR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.21-2.00). Crashes for individuals who had less sleep per night (on average and on weekends) were significantly more likely to occur between 8 pm and 6 am (RR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.11-3.13, for midnight to 5:59 am and RR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.15-2.39, for 8:00 pm to 11:59 pm). Less sleep per night significantly increased the risk for crash for young drivers. Less sleep on weekend nights increased the risk for run-off-road crashes and crashes occurring in the late-night hours. This provides rationale for governments and health care providers to address sleep-related crashes among young drivers.

Older driver crash rates in relation to type and quantity of travel.

PubMed

Keall, Michael D; Frith, William J

2004-03-01

It is a well-established phenomenon that, notwithstanding their overall good crash record, older drivers have a higher than average rate of involvement in injury crashes when the rate is calculated by dividing crash numbers by distance driven. It has been hypothesised that at least some of this higher crash rate is an artefact of the different nature of driving undertaken by many older drivers. For example, driving in congested urban environments provides more opportunities for collisions than driving the same distance on a motorway. However, there have been few opportunities to investigate this theory, as relevant data are difficult to acquire. High-quality data from the New Zealand Travel Survey (1997/1998) were combined with crash data to enable a statistical model to estimate the risk of driver groups under various driving conditions characterised by the type of road used, time of day, day of week, and season of year. Despite elevated crash risks per distance driven compared with middle-aged drivers for most road types, older drivers were as safe as any other age group when driving on motorways. Accounting for the fragility of older drivers and their passengers in the risk estimates for other road types, older drivers appeared to have daytime risks comparable to 25-year-olds and night-time risks as low as any other age group. The driving patterns of older drivers (in terms of when and where they drive) were estimated to minimize their risks in comparison with the driving patterns of other age groups. These results are of interest to both policy makers and transportation planners working against the background of inevitable increases in the number of older drivers as the population ages.

Depiction of priority light-vehicle pre-crash scenarios for safety applications based on vehicle-to-vehicle communications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-30

A template of pre-crash scenarios is presented to depict national crash statistics and kinematic information of time-to-collision for the design of appropriate crash countermeasures based on vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications. This template serv...

Study of KDOT Policy on Lane and Shoulder Minimum Width for Application of Centerline Rumble Strips : Technical Summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-08-01

Roadway departure crashes correspond to approximately 40% of all traffic crashes. According to the most recent national crash statistics, in 2009, there were 11,185 fatal roadway departure crashes on rural highways, resulting in 23,169 fatalities. Th...

Rural and Urban Crashes: A Comparative Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-08-01

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's National Center for Statistics : and Analysis (NCSA) recently completed a study comparing the characteristics of : crashes occurring in rural areas to the characteristics of crashes occurring in : urba...

Statistical implications of using moving violations to determine crash responsibility in young driver crashes

PubMed Central

Curry, Allison E.; Pfeiffer, Melissa R.; Myers, Rachel K.; Durbin, Dennis R.; Elliott, Michael R.

2014-01-01

Traditional methods for determining crash responsibility—most commonly moving violation citations—may not accurately characterize at-fault status among crash-involved drivers given that: (1) issuance may vary by factors that are independent of fault (e.g., driver age, gender), and (2) these methods do not capture driver behaviors that are not illegal but still indicative of fault. We examined the statistical implications of using moving violations to determine crash responsibility in young driver crashes by comparing it with a method based on crash-contributing driver actions. We selected all drivers in police-reported passenger-vehicle crashes (2010–2011) that involved a New Jersey driver <21 years old (79,485 drivers < age 21, 61,355 drivers ≥ age 21.) For each driver, crash responsibility was determined from the crash report using two alternative methods: (1) issuance of a moving violation citation; and (2) presence of a driver action (e.g., failure to yield, inattention). Overall, 18% of crash-involved drivers were issued a moving violation while 50% had a driver action. Only 32.2% of drivers with a driver action were cited for a moving violation. Further, the likelihood of being cited given the presence of a driver action was higher among certain driver subgroups—younger drivers, male drivers, and drivers in single-vehicle and more severe crashes. Specifically among young drivers, those driving at night, carrying peer passengers, and having a suspended or no license were more often cited. Conversely, fatally-injured drivers were almost never cited. We also demonstrated that using citation data may lead to statistical bias in the characterization of at-fault drivers and of quasi-induced exposure measures. Studies seeking to accurately determine crash responsibility should thoughtfully consider the potential sources of bias that may result from using legal culpability methods. For many studies, determining driver responsibility via the identification of driver actions may yield more accurate characterizations of at-fault drivers. PMID:24398139

Traffic crash statistics report, 2001

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-06-21

This report contains data from the department's crash database, compiled from traffic crash reports completed by state and local law enforcement agencies. While progress has been made in reducing deaths, injuries and economic losses on Florida's high...

Traffic crash statistics report, 1999

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-05-17

This report contains : data from the Departments crash database, compiled from traffic crash reports completed by : state and local law enforcement agencies. The mission of the Department of Highway Safety : and Motor Vehicles is to make highways ...

2005 Wisconsin traffic crash facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-11-01

2005 Facts and Figures : 801 persons were killed in Wisconsin motor vehicle traffic crashes. This is an average of : over two lives lost each day on Wisconsin traffic arteries. : 53,462 persons were injured in 37,515 reported injury crashes a...

Effects on speed and safety of point-to-point speed enforcement systems: evaluation on the urban motorway A56 Tangenziale di Napoli.

PubMed

Montella, Alfonso; Imbriani, Lella Liana; Marzano, Vittorio; Mauriello, Filomena

2015-02-01

In this paper, we evaluated the effects on speed and safety of the point-to-point (P2P) speed enforcement system activated on the urban motorway A56 in Italy. The P2P speed enforcement is a relatively new approach to traffic law enforcement that involves the calculation of the average speed over a section. To evaluate the speed effects, we performed a before-after analysis of speed data investigating also effects on non-compliance to speed limits. To evaluate the safety effects, we carried out an empirical Bayes observational before-and-after study. The P2P system led to very positive effects on both speed and safety. As far as the effects on the section average travel speeds, the system yielded to a reduction in the mean speed, the 85th percentile speed, the standard deviation of speed, and the proportion of drivers exceeding the speed limits, exceeding the speed limits more than 10km/h, and exceeding the speed limits more than 20km/h. The best results were the decrease of the speed variability and the reduction of the excessive speeding behaviour. The decrease in the standard deviation of speed was 26% while the proportion of light and heavy vehicles exceeding the speed limits more than 20km/h was reduced respectively by 84 and 77%. As far as the safety effects, the P2P system yielded to a 32% reduction in the total crashes, with a lower 95% confidence limit of the estimate equal to 22%. The greatest crash reductions were in rainy weather (57%), on wet pavement (51%), on curves (49%), for single vehicle crashes (44%), and for injury crashes (37%). It is noteworthy that the system produced a statistically significant reduction of 21% in total crashes also in the part of the motorway where it was not activated, thus generating a significant spillover effect. The investigation of the effects of the P2P system on speed and safety over time allowed to develop crash modification functions where the relationship between crash modification factors and speed parameters (mean speed, 85th percentile speed, and standard deviation of speed) was expressed by a power function. Crash modification functions show that the effect of speed on safety is greater on curves and for injury crashes. Even though the study results show excellent outcomes, we must point out that the crash reduction effects decreased over time and speed, speed variability, and non-compliance to speed limits significantly increased over time. To maintain its effectiveness over time, P2P speed enforcement must be actively managed, i.e. constantly monitored and supported by appropriate sanctions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drinking-Driving and Fatal Crashes: A New Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zylman, Richard

1975-01-01

Discusses the relationship between alcohol and fatal automobile crashes. Stresses the need for controlled studies in order to determine the correlation between drunk drivers and fatal accidents and to obtain dependable statistics on alcohol-related crashes. (BD)

Crash analysis, statistics & information notebook 2008

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

Traditionally crash data is often presented as single fact sheets highlighting a single factor such as Vehicle Type or Road Type. This document will try to show how the risk factors interrelate to produce a crash. Complete detailed analys...

2009 Oregon traffic crash summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

The Crash Analysis and Reporting Unit compiles data and publishes statistics for reported motor vehicle : traffic crashes per ORS 802.050(2) and 802.220(6). The data supports various local, county and state : traffic safety programs, engineering and ...

Analysis of design attributes and crashes on the Oregon highway system : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-01

This report has investigated the statistical relationship between crash activity and roadway design attributes on the Oregon state : highway system. Crash models were estimated from highway segments distinguished by functional classification (freeway...

2008 Oregon traffic crash summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

The Crash Analysis and Reporting Unit compiles data and publishes statistics for reported motor vehicle : traffic crashes per ORS 802.050(2) and 802.220(6). The data supports various local, county and state : traffic safety programs, engineering and ...

2010 Oregon traffic crash summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

The Crash Analysis and Reporting Unit compiles data and publishes statistics for reported motor vehicle : traffic crashes per ORS 802.050(2) and 802.220(6). The data supports various local, county and state : traffic safety programs, engineering and ...

Crash risk factors for interstate large trucks in North Carolina.

PubMed

Teoh, Eric R; Carter, Daniel L; Smith, Sarah; McCartt, Anne T

2017-09-01

Provide an updated examination of risk factors for large truck involvements in crashes resulting in injury or death. A matched case-control study was conducted in North Carolina of large trucks operated by interstate carriers. Cases were defined as trucks involved in crashes resulting in fatal or non-fatal injury, and one control truck was matched on the basis of location, weekday, time of day, and truck type. The matched-pair odds ratio provided an estimate of the effect of various driver, vehicle, or carrier factors. Out-of-service (OOS) brake violations tripled the risk of crashing; any OOS vehicle defect increased crash risk by 362%. Higher historical crash rates (fatal, injury, or all crashes) of the carrier were associated with increased risk of crashing. Operating on a short-haul exemption increased crash risk by 383%. Antilock braking systems reduced crash risk by 65%. All of these results were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Other safety technologies also showed estimated benefits, although not statistically significant. With the exception of the finding that short-haul exemption is associated with increased crash risk, results largely bolster what is currently known about large truck crash risk and reinforce current enforcement practices. Results also suggest vehicle safety technologies can be important in lowering crash risk. This means that as safety technology continues to penetrate the fleet, whether from voluntary usage or government mandates, reductions in large truck crashes may be achieved. Practical application: Results imply that increased enforcement and use of crash avoidance technologies can improve the large truck crash problem. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2009 Wisconsin traffic crash facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-01

2009 Facts and Figures: 542 persons were killed in Wisconsin motor vehicle traffic crashes. This is an average of just over one life lost each day on Wisconsin traffic arteries. 41,589 persons were injured in 29,907 reported injury crashes and 488 fa...

2008 Wisconsin traffic crash facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

2008 Facts and Figures 587 persons were killed in Wisconsin motor vehicle traffic crashes. This is an average of just over one life lost each day on Wisconsin traffic arteries. 46,637 persons were injured in 33,766 reported injury crashes and 542 fat...

2007 Wisconsin traffic crash facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

2007 Facts and Figures - 737 persons were killed in Wisconsin motor vehicle traffic crashes. This is an average of just over two lives lost each day on Wisconsin traffic arteries. - 50,676 persons were injured in 36,048 reported injury crashes and 65...

Improvement of the performance of animal crossing warning signs.

PubMed

Khalilikhah, Majid; Heaslip, Kevin

2017-09-01

Animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs) can result in serious injury and death to drivers, animals' death, and significant economic costs. However, the cost effectiveness of the majority of AVC mitigation measures is a significant issue. A mobile-based data collection effort was deployed to measure signs under the Utah Department of Transportation's (UDOT) jurisdiction. The crash data were obtained from the UDOT risk management database. ArcGIS was employed to link these two data sets and extract animal-related crashes and signs. An algorithm was developed to process the data and identify AVCs that occurred within sign recognition distance. Kernel density estimation (KDE) technique was applied to identify potential crash hotspots. Only 2% of AVCs occurred within the recognition distance of animal crossing signs. Almost 58% of animal-related crashes took place on the Interstate and U.S. highways, wherein only 30% of animal crossing signs were installed. State routes with a higher average number of signs experienced a lower number of AVCs per mile. The differences between AVCs that occurred within versus outside of sign recognition distance were not statistically significant regarding crash severity, time of crash, weather condition, driver age, vehicle speed, and type of animal. It is more likely that drivers become accustomed to deer crossing signs than cow signs. Based on the historical crash data and landscape structure, with attention given to the low cost safety improvement methods, a combination of different types of AVC mitigation measures can be developed to reduce the number of animal-related crashes. After an in-depth analysis of AVC data, warning traffic signs, coupled with other low cost mitigation countermeasures can be successfully placed in areas with higher priority or in critical areas. Practical applications: The findings of this study assist transportation agencies in developing more efficient mitigation measures against AVCs. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A summary of selected nationwide school bus crash statistics in 1989

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1991-05-01

Author's abstract: Crashes involving vehicles used in the noncommercial transport of persons for either school related or private group transportation present a small, but important, portion of the nation's motor vehicle crash experience each year. H...

Motor vehicle crashes in New Zealand, 2008

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

This statistical statement contains tabulations of information coded from Traffic Crash Reports. To put these data into context, the following is a brief description of the process : which has resulted in this publication. When a road traffic crash i...

Motor vehicle crashes in New Zealand, 2009

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

This statistical statement contains tabulations of information coded from Traffic Crash Reports. To put these data into context, the following is a brief description of the process : which has resulted in this publication. When a road traffic crash i...

Topological data analysis of financial time series: Landscapes of crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidea, Marian; Katz, Yuri

2018-02-01

We explore the evolution of daily returns of four major US stock market indices during the technology crash of 2000, and the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Our methodology is based on topological data analysis (TDA). We use persistence homology to detect and quantify topological patterns that appear in multidimensional time series. Using a sliding window, we extract time-dependent point cloud data sets, to which we associate a topological space. We detect transient loops that appear in this space, and we measure their persistence. This is encoded in real-valued functions referred to as a 'persistence landscapes'. We quantify the temporal changes in persistence landscapes via their Lp-norms. We test this procedure on multidimensional time series generated by various non-linear and non-equilibrium models. We find that, in the vicinity of financial meltdowns, the Lp-norms exhibit strong growth prior to the primary peak, which ascends during a crash. Remarkably, the average spectral density at low frequencies of the time series of Lp-norms of the persistence landscapes demonstrates a strong rising trend for 250 trading days prior to either dotcom crash on 03/10/2000, or to the Lehman bankruptcy on 09/15/2008. Our study suggests that TDA provides a new type of econometric analysis, which complements the standard statistical measures. The method can be used to detect early warning signals of imminent market crashes. We believe that this approach can be used beyond the analysis of financial time series presented here.

Assessing crash risk considering vehicle interactions with trucks using point detector data.

PubMed

Hyun, Kyung Kate; Jeong, Kyungsoo; Tok, Andre; Ritchie, Stephen G

2018-03-12

Trucks have distinct driving characteristics in general traffic streams such as lower speeds and limitations in acceleration and deceleration. As a consequence, vehicles keep longer headways or frequently change lane when they follow a truck, which is expected to increase crash risk. This study introduces several traffic measures at the individual vehicle level to capture vehicle interactions between trucks and non-trucks and analyzed how the measures affect crash risk under different traffic conditions. The traffic measures were developed using headways obtained from Inductive Loop Detectors (ILDs). In addition, a truck detection algorithm using a Gaussian Mixture (GM) model was developed to identify trucks and to estimate truck exposure from ILD data. Using the identified vehicle types from the GM model, vehicle interaction metrics were categorized into three groups based on the combination of leading and following vehicle types. The effects of the proposed traffic measures on crash risk were modeled in two different cases of prior- and non-crash using a case-control approach utilizing a conditional logistic regression. Results showed that the vehicle interactions between the leading and following vehicle types were highly associated with crash risk, and further showed different impacts on crash risk by traffic conditions. Specifically, crashes were more likely to occur when a truck following a non-truck had shorter average headway but greater headway variance in heavy traffic while a non-truck following a truck had greater headway variance in light traffic. This study obtained meaningful conclusions that vehicle interactions involved with trucks were significantly related to the crash likelihood rather than the measures that estimate average traffic condition such as total volume or average headway of the traffic stream. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arkansas 2004 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2004 there were: : 74,059 total crashes reported, a 4.4% increase from 2003 : 626 fatal crashes reported, an 11.0 % increase from 2003 : 721 fatalities reported, a 12.5% increase from 2003 : 269 alcohol/drug...

2007 Missouri state highway system : traffic accident statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-08-25

The following summary of traffic crashes represents only those crashes that have occurred on the State Highway : System of Missouri in 2007. The information contained in this publication is a summary of the crash reports : provided to the Missouri De...

2009 Missouri state highway system : traffic accident statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-08-03

The following summary of traffic crashes represents only those crashes that have occurred on the State Highway : System of Missouri in 2009. The information contained in this publication is a summary of the crash reports : provided to the Missouri De...

2008 Missouri state highway system : traffic accident statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-13

The following summary of traffic crashes represents only those crashes that have occurred on the State Highway : System of Missouri in 2008. The information contained in this publication is a summary of the crash reports : provided to the Missouri De...

Evaluation of 2006 Kentucky crash data reported to MCMIS crash file.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-12-01

This report is part of a series evaluating the data reported to the Motor Carrier Management : Information System (MCMIS) Crash File undertaken by the Center for National Truck and Bus : Statistics at the University of Michigan Transportation Researc...

2006 Missouri state highway system : traffic accident statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-07-18

The following summary of traffic crashes represents only those crashes that have occurred on the State Highway : System of Missouri in 2006. The information contained in this publication is a summary of the crash reports : provided to the Missouri De...

Arkansas 2007 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-05-08

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2007 there were: : 66,393 total crashes reported, a 1.6% decrease from 2006 : 584 fatal crashes reported, a 2.0% decrease from 2006 : 650 fatalities reported, a 2.3% decrease from 2006 : 276 alcohol/drug rel...

Arkansas 2002 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2002 there were: : 70,904 total crashes reported, a 3.1 % increase from 2001 : 557 fatal crashes reported, a 3.5 % increase from 2001 : 641 fatalities reported, a 4.9 % increase from 2001 : 243 alcohol/drug rela...

Arkansas 2008 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2008 there were: : 63,137 total crashes reported, a 4.9% decrease from 2007 : 552 fatal crashes reported, a 5.5% decrease from 2007 : 600 fatalities reported, a 7.7% decrease from 2007 : 265 alcohol/drug related...

Arkansas 2006 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2006 there were: : 67,485 total crashes reported, a 2.9% decrease from 2005 : 596 fatal crashes reported, no change from 2005 : 665 fatalities reported, a 1.7% increase from 2005 : 307 alcohol/drug related f...

Arkansas 2007 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2007 there were: : 66,393 total crashes reported, a 1.6% decrease from 2006 : 584 fatal crashes reported, a 2.0% decrease from 2006 : 650 fatalities reported, a 2.3% decrease from 2006 : 276 alcohol/drug rel...

Arkansas 2001 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2001 there were: : 68,797 total crashes reported, a 2.7 % decrease from 2000 : 538 fatal crashes reported, a 6.9 % decrease from 2000 : 611 fatalities reported, a 6.3 % decrease from 2000 : 213 alcohol/drug rela...

Arkansas 2003 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2003 there were: : 70,914 total crashes reported, a 0.01 % increase from 2002 : 564 fatal crashes reported, a 1.2 % increase from 2002 : 641 fatalities reported, no increase or decrease from 2002 : 272 alcohol/d...

Arkansas 2005 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2005 there were: : 69,515 total crashes reported, a 6.1% decrease from 2004 : 596 fatal crashes reported, a 4.8% decrease from 2004 : 654 fatalities reported, a 9.3% decrease from 2004 : 247 alcohol/drug rel...

Large truck crash profile : the 1998 national picture

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

This annual edition of the Large Truck Crash Profile contains descriptive statistics about fatal and non-fatal (injury and property-damage-only) large truck crashes that occurred in 1998. The profile includes only some of the major aspects of truck c...

0-6702 : development of pedestrian crash countermeasures and appropriate crash reduction factors (CRF) : [project summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

In Texas, the average number of pedestrian fatalities for : 20072011 was about 400 per year. Due to the high : number of pedestrian crashes, the Federal Highway : Administration (FHWA) considers Texas a focus state. To : address these concerns, th...

Comparison of four statistical and machine learning methods for crash severity prediction.

PubMed

Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh; Khattak, Aemal

2017-11-01

Crash severity prediction models enable different agencies to predict the severity of a reported crash with unknown severity or the severity of crashes that may be expected to occur sometime in the future. This paper had three main objectives: comparison of the performance of four statistical and machine learning methods including Multinomial Logit (MNL), Nearest Neighbor Classification (NNC), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests (RF), in predicting traffic crash severity; developing a crash costs-based approach for comparison of crash severity prediction methods; and investigating the effects of data clustering methods comprising K-means Clustering (KC) and Latent Class Clustering (LCC), on the performance of crash severity prediction models. The 2012-2015 reported crash data from Nebraska, United States was obtained and two-vehicle crashes were extracted as the analysis data. The dataset was split into training/estimation (2012-2014) and validation (2015) subsets. The four prediction methods were trained/estimated using the training/estimation dataset and the correct prediction rates for each crash severity level, overall correct prediction rate and a proposed crash costs-based accuracy measure were obtained for the validation dataset. The correct prediction rates and the proposed approach showed NNC had the best prediction performance in overall and in more severe crashes. RF and SVM had the next two sufficient performances and MNL was the weakest method. Data clustering did not affect the prediction results of SVM, but KC improved the prediction performance of MNL, NNC and RF, while LCC caused improvement in MNL and RF but weakened the performance of NNC. Overall correct prediction rate had almost the exact opposite results compared to the proposed approach, showing that neglecting the crash costs can lead to misjudgment in choosing the right prediction method. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the role of pavement macrotexture in preventing crashes on highways.

PubMed

Pulugurtha, Srinivas S; Kusam, Prasanna R; Patel, Kuvleshay J

2010-02-01

The objective of this article is to assess the role of pavement macrotexture in preventing crashes on highways in the State of North Carolina. Laser profilometer data obtained from the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) for highways comprising four corridors are processed to calculate pavement macrotexture at 100-m (approximately 330-ft) sections according to the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards. Crash data collected over the same lengths of the corridors were integrated with the calculated pavement macrotexture for each section. Scatterplots were generated to assess the role of pavement macrotexture on crashes and logarithm of crashes. Regression analyses were conducted by considering predictor variables such as million vehicle miles of travel (as a function of traffic volume and length), the number of interchanges, the number of at-grade intersections, the number of grade-separated interchanges, and the number of bridges, culverts, and overhead signs along with pavement macrotexture to study the statistical significance of relationship between pavement macrotexture and crashes (both linear and log-linear) when compared to other predictor variables. Scatterplots and regression analysis conducted indicate a more statistically significant relationship between pavement macrotexture and logarithm of crashes than between pavement macrotexture and crashes. The coefficient for pavement macrotexture, in general, is negative, indicating that the number of crashes or logarithm of crashes decreases as it increases. The relation between pavement macrotexture and logarithm of crashes is generally stronger than between most other predictor variables and crashes or logarithm of crashes. Based on results obtained, it can be concluded that maintaining pavement macrotexture greater than or equal to 1.524 mm (0.06 in.) as a threshold limit would possibly reduce crashes and provide safe transportation to road users on highways.

An Analysis of the Crash Experience of Vehicles Equipped with Antilock Braking System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-06-01

National Center for Statistics and Analysis has recently completed an initial : analysis of the crash experience of passenger cars (PCs) and light trucks and : vans (LTVs) equipped with antilock braking systems (ABS). Four types of crashes : were ide...

Evaluation of 2008 Mississippi crash data reported to the MCMIS Crash File.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

This report is part of a series evaluating the data reported to the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) Crash File undertaken by the Center for National Truck and Bus Statistics at the University of Michigan Transportation Research In...

Evaluation of 2008 Kansas crash data reported to the MCMIS Crash File.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

This report is part of a series evaluating the data reported to the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) Crash File undertaken by the Center for National Truck and Bus Statistics at the University of Michigan Transportation Research In...

Intelligent Transportation Systems, Building The ITI - Putting The National Architecture Into Action

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-01

This National Truck Crash Profile contains descriptive statistics about fatal and non-fatal (injury and property-damage-only) large truck crashes that occurred in 1997. The profile includes only some of the major aspects of truck crashes. Additional ...

Arkansas 2009 traffic crash statistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

On all public roads in Arkansas during 2007 there were: 66,393 total crashes reported, a 1.6% decrease from 2006 584 fatal crashes reported, a 2.0% decrease from 2006 650 fatalities reported, a 2.3% decrease from 2006 276 alcohol/drug related fat...

Evaluation of 2008 Vermont crash data reported to the MCMIS crash file

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

This report is part of a series evaluating the data reported to the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) Crash File undertaken by the Center for National Truck and Bus Statistics at the University of Michigan Transportation Research In...

Evaluation of 2007 Minnesota crash data reported to the MCMIS crash file

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

This report is part of a series evaluating the data reported to the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) Crash File undertaken by the Center for National Truck and Bus Statistics at the University of Michigan Transportation Research In...

Evaluation of 2008 North Dakota crash data reported to the MCMIS crash file

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

This report is part of a series evaluating the data reported to the Motor Carrier Management : Information System (MCMIS) Crash File undertaken by the Center for National Truck and Bus : Statistics at the University of Michigan Transportation Researc...

Evaluation of 2007 Oklahoma crash data reported to the MCMIS crash file

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

This report is part of a series evaluating the data reported to the Motor Carrier Management : Information System (MCMIS) Crash File undertaken by the Center for National Truck and Bus : Statistics at the University of Michigan Transportation Researc...

Evaluation of 2008 Florida crash data reported to the MCMIS crash file.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

This report is part of a series evaluating the data reported to the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) Crash File undertaken by the Center for National Truck and Bus Statistics at the University of Michigan Transportation Research In...

Evaluation of 2007 Texas crash data reported to the MCMIS crash file.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

This report is part of a series evaluating the data reported to the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) Crash File undertaken by the Center for National Truck and Bus Statistics at the University of Michigan Transportation Research In...

Use of cultural consensus analysis to evaluate expert feedback of median safety.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-Gyu; Donnell, Eric T; Lee, Dongmin

2008-07-01

Cultural consensus analysis is a statistical method that can be used to assess participant responses to survey questions. The technique concurrently estimates the knowledge of each survey participant and estimates the culturally correct answer to each question asked, based on the existence of consensus among survey participants. The main objectives of this paper are to present the cultural consensus methodology and apply it to a set of median design and safety survey data that were collected using the Delphi method. A total of 21 Delphi survey participants were asked to answer research questions related to cross-median crashes. It was found that the Delphi panel had agreeable opinions with respect to the association of average daily traffic (ADT) and heavy vehicle percentage combination on the risk of cross-median crashes; relative importance of additional factors, other than ADT, median width, and crash history that may contribute to cross-median crashes; and, the relative importance of geometric factors that may be associated with the likelihood of cross-median crashes. Therefore, the findings from the cultural consensus analysis indicate that the expert panel selected to participate in the Delphi survey shared a common knowledge pool relative to the association between median design and safety. There were, however, diverse opinions regarding median barrier type and its preferred placement location. The panel showed a higher level of knowledge on the relative importance regarding the association of geometric factors on cross-median crashes likelihood than on other issues considered. The results of the cultural consensus analysis of the present median design and safety survey data could be used to design a focused field study of median safety.

Impact of hydrated cement paste quality and entrained air-void system on the durability of concrete : part B.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-30

This publication is a statistical review of reported motor vehicle crashes in Maine during the five-year study period 2005 - 2009. The statistics are compiled from crash reports submitted to the Department of Transportation by the Traffic Division, D...

Analysis of work zone rear-end crash risk for different vehicle-following patterns.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Meng, Qiang; Yan, Xuedong

2014-11-01

This study evaluates rear-end crash risk associated with work zone operations for four different vehicle-following patterns: car-car, car-truck, truck-car and truck-truck. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is adopted to measure work zone rear-end crash risk. Results show that the car-truck following pattern has the largest rear-end crash risk, followed by truck-truck, truck-car and car-car patterns. This implies that it is more likely for a car which is following a truck to be involved in a rear-end crash accident. The statistical test results further confirm that rear-end crash risk is statistically different between any two of the four patterns. We therefore develop a rear-end crash risk model for each vehicle-following pattern in order to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, including lane position, the heavy vehicle percentage, lane traffic flow and work intensity which can be characterized by the number of lane reductions, the number of workers and the amount of equipment at the work zone site. The model results show that, for each pattern, there will be a greater rear-end crash risk in the following situations: (i) heavy work intensity; (ii) the lane adjacent to work zone; (iii) a higher proportion of heavy vehicles and (iv) greater traffic flow. However, the effects of these factors on rear-end crash risk are found to vary according to the vehicle-following patterns. Compared with the car-car pattern, lane position has less effect on rear-end crash risk in the car-truck pattern. The effect of work intensity on rear-end crash risk is also reduced in the truck-car pattern. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multilevel analysis of the role of human factors in regional disparities in crash outcomes.

PubMed

Adanu, Emmanuel Kofi; Smith, Randy; Powell, Lars; Jones, Steven

2017-12-01

A growing body of research has examined the disparities in road traffic safety among population groups and geographic regions. These studies reveal disparities in crash outcomes between people and regions with different socioeconomic characteristics. A critical aspect of the road traffic crash epidemic that has received limited attention is the influence of local characteristics on human elements that increase the risk of getting into a crash. This paper applies multilevel logistic regression modeling techniques to investigate the influence of driver residential factors on driver behaviors in an attempt to explain the area-based differences in the severity of road crashes across the State of Alabama. Specifically, the paper reports the effects of characteristics attributable to drivers and the geographic regions they reside on the likelihood of a crash resulting in serious injuries. Model estimation revealed that driver residence (postal code or region) accounted for about 7.3% of the variability in the probability of a driver getting into a serious injury crash, regardless of driver characteristics. The results also reveal disparities in serious injury crash rate as well as significant proportions of serious injury crashes involving no seatbelt usage, driving under influence (DUI), unemployed drivers, young drivers, distracted driving, and African American drivers among some regions. The average credit scores, average commute times, and populations of driver postal codes are shown to be significant predictors for risk of severe injury crashes. This approach to traffic crash analysis presented can serve as the foundation for evidence-based policies and also guide the implementation of targeted countermeasures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of thoracic injury severity in frontal impacts by selected anatomical morphomic variables through model-averaged logistic regression approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Peng; Parenteau, Chantal; Wang, Lu; Holcombe, Sven; Kohoyda-Inglis, Carla; Sullivan, June; Wang, Stewart

2013-11-01

This study resulted in a model-averaging methodology that predicts crash injury risk using vehicle, demographic, and morphomic variables and assesses the importance of individual predictors. The effectiveness of this methodology was illustrated through analysis of occupant chest injuries in frontal vehicle crashes. The crash data were obtained from the International Center for Automotive Medicine (ICAM) database for calendar year 1996 to 2012. The morphomic data are quantitative measurements of variations in human body 3-dimensional anatomy. Morphomics are obtained from imaging records. In this study, morphomics were obtained from chest, abdomen, and spine CT using novel patented algorithms. A NASS-trained crash investigator with over thirty years of experience collected the in-depth crash data. There were 226 cases available with occupants involved in frontal crashes and morphomic measurements. Only cases with complete recorded data were retained for statistical analysis. Logistic regression models were fitted using all possible configurations of vehicle, demographic, and morphomic variables. Different models were ranked by the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). An averaged logistic regression model approach was used due to the limited sample size relative to the number of variables. This approach is helpful when addressing variable selection, building prediction models, and assessing the importance of individual variables. The final predictive results were developed using this approach, based on the top 100 models in the AIC ranking. Model-averaging minimized model uncertainty, decreased the overall prediction variance, and provided an approach to evaluating the importance of individual variables. There were 17 variables investigated: four vehicle, four demographic, and nine morphomic. More than 130,000 logistic models were investigated in total. The models were characterized into four scenarios to assess individual variable contribution to injury risk. Scenario 1 used vehicle variables; Scenario 2, vehicle and demographic variables; Scenario 3, vehicle and morphomic variables; and Scenario 4 used all variables. AIC was used to rank the models and to address over-fitting. In each scenario, the results based on the top three models and the averages of the top 100 models were presented. The AIC and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were reported in each model. The models were re-fitted after removing each variable one at a time. The increases of AIC and the decreases of AUC were then assessed to measure the contribution and importance of the individual variables in each model. The importance of the individual variables was also determined by their weighted frequencies of appearance in the top 100 selected models. Overall, the AUC was 0.58 in Scenario 1, 0.78 in Scenario 2, 0.76 in Scenario 3 and 0.82 in Scenario 4. The results showed that morphomic variables are as accurate at predicting injury risk as demographic variables. The results of this study emphasize the importance of including morphomic variables when assessing injury risk. The results also highlight the need for morphomic data in the development of human mathematical models when assessing restraint performance in frontal crashes, since morphomic variables are more "tangible" measurements compared to demographic variables such as age and gender. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crash test ratings and real-world frontal crash outcomes: a CIREN study.

PubMed

Ryb, Gabriel E; Burch, Cynthia; Kerns, Timothy; Dischinger, Patricia C; Ho, Shiu

2010-05-01

To establish whether the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) offset crash test ratings are linked to different mortality rates in real world frontal crashes. The study used Crash Injury Research Engineering Network drivers of age older than 15 years who were involved in frontal crashes. The Crash Injury Research Engineering Network is a convenience sample of persons injured in crashes with at least one Abbreviated Injury Scale score of 3+ injury or two Abbreviated Injury Scale score of 2+ injuries who were either treated at a Level I trauma center or died. Cases were grouped by IIHS crash test ratings (i.e., good, acceptable, marginal, poor, and not rated). Those rated marginal were excluded because of their small numbers. Mortality rates experienced by these ratings-based groups were compared using the Mantel-Haenszel chi test. Multiple logistic regression models were built to adjust for confounders (i.e., occupant, vehicular, and crash factors). A total of 1,226 cases were distributed within not rated (59%), poor (12%), average (16%), and good (14%) categories. Those rated good and average experienced a lower unadjusted mortality rate. After adjustment by confounders, those in vehicles rated good experienced a lower risk of death (adjusted OR 0.38 [0.16-0.90]) than those in vehicles rated poor. There was no significant effect for "acceptable" rating. Other factors influencing the occurrence of death were age, DeltaV >or=70 km/h, high body mass index, and lack of restraint use. After adjusting for occupant, vehicular, and crash factors, drivers of vehicles rated good by the IIHS experienced a lower risk of death in frontal crashes.

Recent trends in cyclist fatalities in Australia.

PubMed

Boufous, Soufiane; Olivier, Jake

2016-08-01

The study examines trends in bicycling fatalities reported to the Australian police between 1991 and 2013. Trends were estimated using Poisson regression modelling. Overall, cycling fatalities decreased by 1.9% annually between 1991 and 2013. However, while deaths following multivehicle crashes decreased at a rate of 2.9% per annum (95% CI -4.0% to -1.8%), deaths from single vehicle crashes increased by 5.8% per annum (95% CI 4.1% to 7.5%). Over the study period, the average age of cyclists who died in single vehicle crashes (45.3 years, 95% CI 41.5 to 49.1) was significantly higher than cyclists who died in multivehicle crashes (36.2 years, 95% CI 34.7 to 37.7). The average age of deceased cyclists increased significantly for both types of crashes. The observed increase in single vehicle crashes need to be closely monitored in Australia and internationally. In-depth studies are needed to investigate the circumstances of fatal single bicycle crashes in order to develop appropriate countermeasures. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

2018-02-01

There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Barrier-relevant crash modification factors and average costs of crashes on arterial roads in Indiana.

PubMed

Zou, Yaotian; Tarko, Andrew P

2018-02-01

The objective of this study was to develop crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimate the average crash costs applicable to a wide range of road-barrier scenarios that involved three types of road barriers (concrete barriers, W-beam guardrails, and high-tension cable barriers) to produce a suitable basis for comparing barrier-oriented design alternatives and road improvements. The intention was to perform the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis allowed by the cross-sectional method and the crash data available in Indiana. To accomplish this objective and to use the available data efficiently, the effects of barrier were estimated on the frequency of barrier-relevant (BR) crashes, the types of harmful events and their occurrence during a BR crash, and the severity of BR crash outcomes. The harmful events component added depth to the analysis by connecting the crash onset with its outcome. Further improvement of the analysis was accomplished by considering the crash outcome severity of all the individuals involved in a crash and not just drivers, utilizing hospital data, and pairing the observations with and without road barriers along same or similar road segments to better control the unobserved heterogeneity. This study confirmed that the total number of BR crashes tended to be higher where medians had installed barriers, mainly due to collisions with barriers and, in some cases, with other vehicles after redirecting vehicles back to traffic. These undesirable effects of barriers were surpassed by the positive results of reducing cross-median crashes, rollover events, and collisions with roadside hazards. The average cost of a crash (unit cost) was reduced by 50% with cable barriers installed in medians wider than 50ft. A similar effect was concluded for concrete barriers and guardrails installed in medians narrower than 50ft. The studied roadside guardrails also reduced the unit cost by 20%-30%. Median cable barriers were found to be the most effective among all the studied barriers due to the smaller increase in the crash frequency caused by these barriers and the less severe injury outcomes. More specifically, the occupants of vehicles colliding with near-side cable barriers tended to have less severe injuries than occupants of vehicles entering the median from median's farther side. The near-side cable barriers provided protection against rollover inside the median and against a potentially dangerous collision with or running over the median drain; therefore, the greatest safety benefit can be expected where cable barriers are installed at both edges of the median. The CMFs and unit crash costs for 48 road-barrier scenarios produced in this study are included in this paper. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gasoline prices and traffic crashes in Alabama, 1999-2009.

PubMed

Chi, Guangqing; McClure, Timothy E; Brown, David B

2012-09-01

The price of gasoline has been found to be negatively associated with traffic crashes in a limited number of studies. However, most of the studies have focused either on fatal crashes only or on all crashes but measured over a very short time period. In this study, we examine gasoline price effects on all traffic crashes by demographic groups in the state of Alabama from 1999 to 2009. Using negative binomial regression techniques to examine monthly data from 1999 to 2009 in the state of Alabama, we estimate the effects of changes in gasoline price on changes in automobile crashes. We also examine how these effects differ by age group (16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-64, and 65+), gender (male and female), and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic). The results show that gasoline prices have both short-term and long-term effects on reducing total traffic crashes and crashes of each age, gender, and race/ethnicity group (except Hispanic due to data limitations). The short-term and long-term effects are not statistically different for each individual demographic group. Gasoline prices have a stronger effect in reducing crashes involving drivers aged 16 to 20 than crashes involving drivers aged 31 to 64 and 65+ in the short term; the effects, however, are not statistically different across other demographic groups. Although gasoline price increases are not favored, our findings show that gasoline price increases (or decreases) are associated with reductions (or increases) in the incidence of traffic crashes. If gasoline prices had remained at the 1999 level of $1.41 from 1999 to 2009, applying the estimated elasticities would result in a predicted increase in total crashes of 169,492 (or 11.3%) from the actual number of crashes. If decision makers wish to reduce traffic crashes, increasing gasoline taxes is a possible option-however, doing so would increase travel costs and lead to equity concerns. These findings may help to shape transportation safety planning and policy making.

An illustrated analysis of North Carolina traffic crash statistics for 2004

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

In 2004, there was a 1.4% increase in the number of fatalities, but a 3% decrease in the : number of traffic crashes reported. A crash occurred every 2.3 minutes and a person was : killed every 5.6 hours on our state highways. There were 1,574 lives ...

Using data mining techniques to predict the severity of bicycle crashes.

PubMed

Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Fraboni, Federico

2017-04-01

To investigate the factors predicting severity of bicycle crashes in Italy, we used an observational study of official statistics. We applied two of the most widely used data mining techniques, CHAID decision tree technique and Bayesian network analysis. We used data provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics on road crashes that occurred on the Italian road network during the period ranging from 2011 to 2013. In the present study, the dataset contains information about road crashes occurred on the Italian road network during the period ranging from 2011 to 2013. We extracted 49,621 road accidents where at least one cyclist was injured or killed from the original database that comprised a total of 575,093 road accidents. CHAID decision tree technique was employed to establish the relationship between severity of bicycle crashes and factors related to crash characteristics (type of collision and opponent vehicle), infrastructure characteristics (type of carriageway, road type, road signage, pavement type, and type of road segment), cyclists (gender and age), and environmental factors (time of the day, day of the week, month, pavement condition, and weather). CHAID analysis revealed that the most important predictors were, in decreasing order of importance, road type (0.30), crash type (0.24), age of cyclist (0.19), road signage (0.08), gender of cyclist (0.07), type of opponent vehicle (0.05), month (0.04), and type of road segment (0.02). These eight most important predictors of the severity of bicycle crashes were included as predictors of the target (i.e., severity of bicycle crashes) in Bayesian network analysis. Bayesian network analysis identified crash type (0.31), road type (0.19), and type of opponent vehicle (0.18) as the most important predictors of severity of bicycle crashes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variety and volatility in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2000-11-01

We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in a financial market by considering the statistical properties of both a single time series and an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. We use the n stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange to form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution. We find that a typical ensemble return distribution exists in most of the trading days with the exception of crash and rally days and of the days following these extreme events. We analyze each ensemble return distribution by extracting its first two central moments. We observe that these moments fluctuate in time and are stochastic processes, themselves. We characterize the statistical properties of ensemble return distribution central moments by investigating their probability density functions and temporal correlation properties. In general, time-averaged and portfolio-averaged price returns have different statistical properties. We infer from these differences information about the relative strength of correlation between stocks and between different trading days. Last, we compare our empirical results with those predicted by the single-index model and we conclude that this simple model cannot explain the statistical properties of the second moment of the ensemble return distribution.

Statistical Characteristics of Wrong-Way Driving Crashes on Illinois Freeways.

PubMed

Zhou, Huaguo; Zhao, Jiguang; Pour-Rouholamin, Mahdi; Tobias, Priscilla A

2015-01-01

Driving the wrong way on freeways, namely wrong-way driving (WWD), has been found to be a major concern for more than 6 decades. The purpose of this study was to identify characteristics of this type of crash as well as to rank the locations/interchanges according to their vulnerability to WWD entries. The WWD crash data on Illinois freeways were statistically analyzed for a 6-year time period (2004 to 2009) from 3 aspects: crash, vehicle, and person. The temporal distributions, geographical distributions, roadway characteristics, and crash locations were analyzed for WWD crashes. The driver demographic information, physical condition, and injury severity were analyzed for wrong-way drivers. The vehicle characteristics, vehicle operation, and collision results were analyzed for WWD vehicles. A method was brought about to identify wrong-way entry points that was then used to develop a relative-importance technique and rank different interchange types in terms of potential WWD incidents. The findings revealed that a large proportion of WWD crashes occurred during the weekend from midnight to 5 a.m. Approximately 80% of WWD crashes were located in urban areas and nearly 70% of wrong-way vehicles were passenger cars. Approximately 58% of wrong-way drivers were driving under the influence (DUI). Of those, nearly 50% were confirmed to be impaired by alcohol, about 4% were impaired by drugs, and more than 3% had been drinking. The analysis of interchange ranking found that compressed diamond interchanges, single point diamond interchanges (SPDIs), partial cloverleaf interchanges, and freeway feeders had the highest wrong-way crash rates (wrong-way crashes per 100 interchanges per year). The findings of this study call for more attention to WWD crashes from different aspects such as driver age group, time of day, day of week, and DUI drivers. Based on the analysis results of WWD distance, the study explained why a 5-mile radius of WWD crash location should be studied for WWD fatal crashes with unknown entry points.

Risk-taking behaviors and prefrontal cortex activity of male adolescents in the presence of peer passengers during simulated driving : a functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) study.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-09-01

Crash statistics show that adolescent drivers are more likely to be involved in motor-vehicle crashes than adults and that the : presence of peer passengers pose an additional risk factor for crashes. Experimental and observational studies show that ...

The Pattern of Road Traffic Crashes in South East Iran

PubMed Central

Rad, Mahdieh; Martiniuk, Alexandra LC.; Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza; Mohammadi, Mahdi; Rashedi, Fariborz; Ghasemi, Ardavan

2016-01-01

Background: In the present study, the epidemiologic aspects of road traffic crashes in South East of Iran are described. Methods: This cross-sectional study included the profile of 2398 motor vehicle crashes recorded in the police office in one Year in South East of Iran. Data collected included: demographics, the type of crash, type of involved vehicle, location of crash and factors contributing to the crash. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Results: Collisions with other vehicles or objects contributed the highest proportion (62.4%) of motor vehicle crashes. Human factors including careless driving, violating traffic laws, speeding, and sleep deprivation/fatigue were the most important causal factors accounting for 90% of road crashes. Data shows that 41% of drivers were not using a seat belt at the time of crash. One- third of the crashes resulted in injury (25%) or death (5%). Conclusions: Reckless driving such as speeding and violation of traffic laws are major risk factors for crashes in the South East of Iran. This highlights the need for education along with traffic law enforcement to reduce motor vehicle crashes in future. PMID:27157159

The Pattern of Road Traffic Crashes in South East Iran.

PubMed

Rad, Mahdieh; Martiniuk, Alexandra Lc; Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza; Mohammadi, Mahdi; Rashedi, Fariborz; Ghasemi, Ardavan

2016-09-01

In the present study, the epidemiologic aspects of road traffic crashes in South East of Iran are described. This cross-sectional study included the profile of 2398 motor vehicle crashes recorded in the police office in one Year in South East of Iran. Data collected included: demographics, the type of crash, type of involved vehicle, location of crash and factors contributing to the crash. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Collisions with other vehicles or objects contributed the highest proportion (62.4%) of motor vehicle crashes. Human factors including careless driving, violating traffic laws, speeding, and sleep deprivation/fatigue were the most important causal factors accounting for 90% of road crashes. Data shows that 41% of drivers were not using a seat belt at the time of crash. One- third of the crashes resulted in injury (25%) or death (5%). Reckless driving such as speeding and violation of traffic laws are major risk factors for crashes in the South East of Iran. This highlights the need for education along with traffic law enforcement to reduce motor vehicle crashes in future.

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

PubMed Central

HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

2011-01-01

SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

Explaining reduction of pedestrian-motor vehicle crashes in Arkhangelsk, Russia, in 2005-2010.

PubMed

Kudryavtsev, Alexander V; Nilssen, Odd; Lund, Johan; Grjibovski, Andrej M; Ytterstad, Børge

2012-01-01

To explain a reduction in pedestrian-motor vehicle crashes in Arkhangelsk, Russia, in 2005-2010. Retrospective ecological study. For 2005-2010, police data on pedestrian-motor vehicle crashes, traffic violations, and total motor vehicles (MVs) were combined with data on changes in national road traffic legislation and municipal road infrastructure. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate trends in monthly rates of pedestrian-motor vehicle crashes per total MVs and estimate changes in these rates per unit changes in the safety measures. During the 6 years, the police registered 2,565 pedestrian-motor vehicle crashes: 1,597 (62%) outside crosswalks, 766 (30%) on non-signalized crosswalks, and 202 (8%) on signalized crosswalks. Crash rates outside crosswalks and on signalized crosswalks decreased on average by 1.1% per month, whereas the crash rate on non-signalized crosswalks remained unchanged. Numbers of signalized and non-signalized crosswalks increased by 14 and 19%, respectively. Also, 10% of non-signalized crosswalks were combined with speed humps, and 4% with light-reflecting vertical signs. Pedestrian penalties for traffic violations increased 4-fold. Driver penalties for ignoring prohibiting signal and failure to give way to pedestrian on non-signalized crosswalk increased 7- and 8-fold, respectively. The rate of total registered drivers' traffic violations per total MVs decreased on average by 0.3% per month. All studied infrastructure and legislative measures had inverse associations with the rate of crashes outside crosswalks. The rate of crashes on signalized crosswalks showed inverse associations with related monetary penalties. The introduction of infrastructure and legislative measures is the most probable explanation of the reduction of pedestrian-motor vehicle crashes in Arkhangelsk. The overall reduction is due to decreases in rates of crashes outside crosswalks and on signalized crosswalks. No change was observed in the rate of crashes on non-signalized crosswalks.

The October 2014 United States Treasury bond flash crash and the contributory effect of mini flash crashes

PubMed Central

Levine, Zachary S.; Floridi, Luciano

2017-01-01

We investigate the causal uncertainty surrounding the flash crash in the U.S. Treasury bond market on October 15, 2014, and the unresolved concern that no clear link has been identified between the start of the flash crash at 9:33 and the opening of the U.S. equity market at 9:30. We consider the contributory effect of mini flash crashes in equity markets, and find that the number of equity mini flash crashes in the three-minute window between market open and the Treasury Flash Crash was 2.6 times larger than the number experienced in any other three-minute window in the prior ten weekdays. We argue that (a) this statistically significant finding suggests that mini flash crashes in equity markets both predicted and contributed to the October 2014 U.S. Treasury Bond Flash Crash, and (b) mini-flash crashes are important phenomena with negative externalities that deserve much greater scholarly attention. PMID:29091931

Contributing factors to vehicle to vehicle crash frequency and severity under rainfall.

PubMed

Jung, Soyoung; Jang, Kitae; Yoon, Yoonjin; Kang, Sanghyeok

2014-09-01

This study combined vehicle to vehicle crash frequency and severity estimations to examine factor impacts on Wisconsin highway safety in rainy weather. Because of data deficiency, the real-time water film depth, the car-following distance, and the vertical curve grade were estimated with available data sources and a GIS analysis to capture rainy weather conditions at the crash location and time. Using a negative binomial regression for crash frequency estimation, the average annual daily traffic per lane, the interaction between the posted speed limit change and the existence of an off-ramp, and the interaction between the travel lane number change and the pavement surface material change were found to increase the likelihood of vehicle to vehicle crashes under rainfall. However, more average daily rainfall per month and a wider left shoulder were identified as factors that decrease the likelihood of vehicle to vehicle crashes. In the crash severity estimation using the multinomial logit model that outperformed the ordered logit model, the travel lane number, the interaction between the travel lane number and the slow grade, the deep water film, and the rear-end collision type were more likely to increase the likelihood of injury crashes under rainfall compared with crashes involving only property damage. As an exploratory data analysis, this study provides insight into potential strategies for rainy weather highway safety improvement, specifically, the following weather-sensitive strategies: road design and ITS implementation for drivers' safety awareness under rainfall. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of rearview cameras and rear parking sensors on police-reported backing crashes.

PubMed

Cicchino, Jessica B

2017-11-17

The objective of this study was to examine the effectiveness of rearview cameras, rear parking sensors, and both systems combined in preventing police-reported backing crashes. Negative binomial regression was used to compare rates of police-reported backing crash involvements per insured vehicle year in 22 U.S. states during 2009-2014 between passenger vehicle models with backing technologies and the same vehicle models where the optional systems were not purchased, controlling for other factors affecting crash risk. Rearview cameras were examined from four automakers, rear parking sensors from 2 automakers, and both systems combined from a single automaker. Rearview cameras reduced backing crash involvement rates by 17%. Reductions were larger for drivers 70 and older (36%) than for drivers younger than 70 (16%); however, estimates for older and younger drivers did not differ significantly from one another. The Buick Lucerne's rear parking sensor system reduced backing crash involvement rates significantly by 34%, but the reduction for Mercedes-Benz vehicles fit with a sensor system was small and not statistically significant. When averaged between the 2 automakers, effects were significantly larger for drivers 70 and older (38% reduction) than for drivers younger than 70 (1% increase); effects were significant for older but not younger drivers. Backing crash involvement rates were 13% lower among Mercedes-Benz vehicles with a rearview camera and parking sensors than among vehicles without, but this finding was not significant. Rearview cameras are effective in preventing police-reported backing crashes. Effects of rear parking sensors are less straightforward; it is unclear whether the Buick Lucerne system's benefits are due to the older age of its drivers, characteristics of the vehicle or system, or a combination. Systems may be especially beneficial to older drivers who might have limitations that make backing challenging. Although effect estimates did not differ significantly between older and younger drivers for both system types, the magnitude of the differences was large and the pattern of results was consistent across 6 of the 7 systems examined. When rear visibility systems become required equipment on new passenger vehicles in 2018, rearview cameras can be expected to prevent 1 in 6 backing crashes reported to police that involve equipped vehicles.

Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

2014-09-01

Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Index For Rating the Total Secondary Safety of Vehicles from Real World Crash Data

PubMed Central

Newstead, S.; Watson, L.; Cameron, M.

2007-01-01

This study proposes a total secondary safety index for light passenger vehicles that rates the relative performance of vehicles in protecting both their own occupants and other road users in the full range of real world crash circumstances. The index estimates the risk of death or serious injury to key road users in crashes involving light passenger vehicles across the full range of crash types. The proposed index has been estimated from real world crash data from Australasia and was able to identify vehicles that have superior or inferior total secondary safety characteristics compared with the average vehicle. PMID:18184497

Adolescent Crash Rates and School Start Times in Two Central Virginia Counties, 2009-2011: A Follow-up Study to a Southeastern Virginia Study, 2007-2008

PubMed Central

Vorona, Robert Daniel; Szklo-Coxe, Mariana; Lamichhane, Rajan; Ware, J. Catesby; McNallen, Ann; Leszczyszyn, David

2014-01-01

Background and Objective: Early high school start times (EHSST) may lead to sleep loss in adolescents (“teens”), thus resulting in higher crash rates. (Vorona et al., 2011). In this study, we examined two other adjacent Virginia counties for the two years subsequent to the above-mentioned study. We again hypothesized that teens from jurisdictions with EHSST (versus later) experience higher crash rates. Methods: Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles supplied de-identified aggregate data on weekday crashes and time-of-day for 16-18 year old (teen) and adult drivers for school years 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 in Henrico and Chesterfield Counties (HC and CC, respectively). Teen crash rates for counties with early (CC) versus later (HC) school start-times were compared using two-sample Z-tests and these compared to adult crash rates using pair-wise tests. Results: Chesterfield teens manifested a statistically higher crash rate of 48.8/1,000 licensed drivers versus Henrico's 37.9/1,000 (p = 0.04) for 2009-2010. For 2010-2011, CC 16-17 year old teens demonstrated a statistically significant higher crash rate (53.2/1,000 versus 42.0/1,000), while for 16-18 teens a similar trend was found, albeit nonsignificant (p = 0.09). Crash peaks occurred 1 hour earlier in the morning and 2 hours earlier in the afternoon in Chesterfield, consistent with commute times. Post hoc analyses found significantly more run-off road crashes to the right (potentially sleep-related) in Chesterfield teens. Adult crash rates and traffic congestion did not differ between counties. Conclusions: Higher teen crash rates occurred in jurisdictions with EHSST, as in our prior study. This study contributes to and extends existing data on preventable teen crashes and high school start times. Citation: Vorona RD, Szklo-Coxe M, Lamichhane R, Ware JC, McNallen A, Leszczyszyn D. Adolescent crash rates and school start times in two central Virginia counties, 2009-2011: a follow-up study to a southeastern Virginia study, 2007-2008. J Clin Sleep Med 2014;10(11):1169-1177. PMID:25325600

Crashes & Fatalities Related To Driver Drowsiness/Fatigue

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-11-01

THIS REPORT SUMMARIZES RECENT NATIONAL STATISTICS ON THE INCIDENCE AND CHARACTERISTICS OF CRASHES INVOLVING DRIVER FATIGUE, DROWSINESS, OR "ASLEEP-AT-THE-WHEEL." FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS REPORT, THESE TERMS ARE : CONSIDERED SYNONYMOUS. PRINCIPAL DATA...

Safety analytics for integrating crash frequency and real-time risk modeling for expressways.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

2017-07-01

To find crash contributing factors, there have been numerous crash frequency and real-time safety studies, but such studies have been conducted independently. Until this point, no researcher has simultaneously analyzed crash frequency and real-time crash risk to test whether integrating them could better explain crash occurrence. Therefore, this study aims at integrating crash frequency and real-time safety analyses using expressway data. A Bayesian integrated model and a non-integrated model were built: the integrated model linked the crash frequency and the real-time models by adding the logarithm of the estimated expected crash frequency in the real-time model; the non-integrated model independently estimated the crash frequency and the real-time crash risk. The results showed that the integrated model outperformed the non-integrated model, as it provided much better model results for both the crash frequency and the real-time models. This result indicated that the added component, the logarithm of the expected crash frequency, successfully linked and provided useful information to the two models. This study uncovered few variables that are not typically included in the crash frequency analysis. For example, the average daily standard deviation of speed, which was aggregated based on speed at 1-min intervals, had a positive effect on crash frequency. In conclusion, this study suggested a methodology to improve the crash frequency and real-time models by integrating them, and it might inspire future researchers to understand crash mechanisms better. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How the 2008 stock market crash and seasons affect total and cardiac deaths in Los Angeles County.

PubMed

Schwartz, Bryan Glen; Pezzullo, John Christopher; McDonald, Scott Andrew; Poole, William Kenneth; Kloner, Robert Alan

2012-05-15

Various stressors trigger cardiac death. The objective was to investigate a possible relation between a stock market crash and cardiac death in a large population within the United States. We obtained daily stock market data (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index), death certificate data for daily deaths in Los Angeles County (LA), and annual LA population estimates for 2005 through 2008. The 4 years death rate curves (2005 through 2008) were averaged into a single curve to illustrate annual trends. Data were "deseasonalized" by subtracting from the daily observed value the average value for that day of year. There was marked seasonal variation in total and cardiac death rates. Even in the mild LA climate, death rates were higher in winter versus summer including total death (+17%), circulatory death (+24%), coronary heart disease death (+28%), and myocardial infarction death (+38%) rates (p <0.0001 for each). Absolute coronary heart disease death rates have decreased since 1985. After accounting for seasonal variation, the large stock market crash in October 2008 did not affect death rates in LA. Death rates remained at or below seasonal averages during the stock market crash. In conclusion, after correcting for seasonal variation, the stock market crash in October 2008 was not associated with an increase in total or cardiac death in LA. Annual coronary heart disease death rates continue to decrease. However, seasonal variation (specifically winter) remains a trigger for death and coronary heart disease death even in LA where winters are mild. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Overrepresentation of seat belt non-users in traffic crashes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-04-01

This study used observations of driver belt use linked with driver history information to conclude that non-users of belts are overrepresented in traffic crashes. Examining average numbers of accidents and violations per observed belted and unbelted ...

Pedestrians

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

In 2008, 4,378 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in the United States a decrease of 16 percent from the 5,228 pedestrians killed in 1998. On average, a pedestrian is killed in a traffic crash every 120 minutes and injured in a traffic cr...

2006 Wisconsin traffic crash facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

2006 Facts and Figures : 712 persons were killed in Wisconsin motor vehicle traffic crashes. This is an average of : more than two lives lost each day on Wisconsin traffic arteries. : 50,236 persons were injured in 35,296 reported injury cras...

2002 Alaska traffic collisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-09-01

Traffic collisions injured 6370 and killed 89 Alaskans during 2002. There were, on average, : 36.5 crashes per day and 1.5 crashes per hour. One person died on Alaska highways every : 4.1 days. : There were 272 traffic collisions per 100 million ...

GEOGRAPIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN DETERMINING ROAD TRAFFIC CRASH ANALYSIS IN IBADAN, NIGERIA.

PubMed

Rukewe, A; Taiwo, O J; Fatiregun, A A; Afuwape, O O; Alonge, T O

2014-01-01

Road traffic accidents are frequent in this environment, hence the need to determine the place of geographic information systems in the documentation of road traffic accidents. To investigate and document the variations in crash frequencies by types and across different road types in Ibadan, Nigeria. Road traffic accident data between January and June 2011 were obtained from the University College Hospital Emergency Department's trauma registry. All the traffic accidents were categorized into motor vehicular, motorbike and pedestrian crashes. Georeferencing of accident locations mentioned by patients was done using a combination of Google Earth and ArcGIS software. Nearest neighbor statistic, Moran's-I, Getis-Ord statistics, Student T-test, and ANOVA were used in investigating the spatial dynamics in crashes. Out of 600 locations recorded, 492 (82.0%) locations were correctly georeferenced. Crashes were clustered in space with motorbike crashes showing greatest clustering. There was significant difference in crashes between dual and non-dual carriage roads (P = 0.0001), but none between the inner city and the periphery (p = 0.115). However, significant variations also exist among the three categories analyzed (p = 0.004) and across the eleven Local Government Areas (P = 0.017). This study showed that the use of Geographic Information System can help in understanding variations in road traffic accident occurrence, while at the same time identifying locations and neighborhoods with unusually higher accidents frequency.

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2000

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

This publication is a statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year 2000. : The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of : Transportation by state, c...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 1997

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

This publication is a statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year 1997. The results are : compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation by state, cou...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 1998

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

This publication is a statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year : 1998. The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona : Department of Transportation by state, c...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2001

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

This publication is a statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year 2001. The : results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation : by state, c...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2002

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

This publication is a statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year 2002. The : results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation : by state, c...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2003

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

This publication is an annual statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year : 2003. The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of : Transportation by ...

Ohio traffic crash facts, 2007

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-05-07

The Ohio Department of Public Safety is pleased to present the 2007 Ohio Traffic Crash : Facts Book, an in-depth highway safety statistical profile and analysis compiled from : data supplied by law enforcement agencies from across the state. : This a...

Ohio traffic crash facts, 2008

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

The Ohio Department of Public Safety is pleased to present the 2008 Ohio Traffic Crash : Facts Book, an in-depth highway safety statistical profile and analysis compiled from : data supplied by law enforcement agencies from across the state. This ann...

Ohio traffic crash facts, 2009

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-11-01

The Ohio Department of Public Safety is pleased to present the 2009 Ohio Traffic Crash Facts Book, an in-depth highway safety statistical profile and analysis compiled from data supplied by law enforcement agencies from across the state. This annual ...

Delaware's annual traffic statistical report, 2010

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

The Traffic Control Section of the Delaware State Police is the repository for all Delaware traffic crash data. This includes all crash reports regardless of the geographical areas in which they occur or the policy agency conducting the investigation...

Delaware's annual traffic statistical report, 2005

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-04-10

The Traffic Control Section of the Delaware State Police is the repository for all Delaware traffic crash data. This includes all crash reports regardless of the geographical areas in which they occur or the policy agency conducting the investigation...

Delaware's annual traffic statistical report, 2007

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

The Traffic Control Section of the Delaware State Police is the repository for all Delaware traffic crash data. This includes all crash reports regardless of the geographical areas in which they occur or the policy agency conducting the investigation...

Delaware's annual traffic statistical report, 2006

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

The Traffic Control Section of the Delaware State Police is the repository for all Delaware traffic crash data. This includes all crash reports regardless of the geographical areas in which they occur or the policy agency conducting the investigation...

Delaware's annual traffic statistical report, 2009

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-12

The Traffic Control Section of the Delaware State Police is the repository for all Delaware traffic crash data. This includes all crash reports regardless of the geographical areas in which they occur or the policy agency conducting the investigation...

Delaware's annual traffic statistical report, 2011

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

The Traffic Control Section of the Delaware State Police is the repository for all Delaware traffic crash data. This includes all crash reports regardless of the geographical areas in which they occur or the policy agency conducting the investigation...

Delaware's annual traffic statistical report, 2008

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-13

The Traffic Control Section of the Delaware State Police is the repository for all Delaware traffic crash data. This includes all crash reports regardless of the geographical areas in which they occur or the policy agency conducting the investigation...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2005

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

This publication is an annual statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year 2005. : The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation by : ...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2006

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

This publication is an annual statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for the calendar year 2006. : The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation b...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2009

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-29

This publication is a statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year 2009. The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation by state, count...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2008

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-25

This publication is an annual statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for the calendar year 2008. : The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation b...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2007

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-02-17

This publication is an annual statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for the calendar year 2007. : The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation b...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2004

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

This publication is an annual statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year 2004. The : results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation by st...

Rural/urban comparison

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

This fact sheet contains statistics on motor vehicle fatal crashes based on data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). FARS is a census of fatal crashes within the 50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico (although Puerto Rico i...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2010

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-08-22

This publication is an annual statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for the calendar year 2010. The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation by ...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 2014.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-06-01

This publication is an annual statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for the calendar year 2014. The : results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation b...

Arizona motor vehicle crash facts, 1999

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

This publication is a statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for calendar year 1999. : The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of : Transportation by state, c...

Road traffic accidents prediction modelling: An analysis of Anambra State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ihueze, Chukwutoo C; Onwurah, Uchendu O

2018-03-01

One of the major problems in the world today is the rate of road traffic crashes and deaths on our roads. Majority of these deaths occur in low-and-middle income countries including Nigeria. This study analyzed road traffic crashes in Anambra State, Nigeria with the intention of developing accurate predictive models for forecasting crash frequency in the State using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variables (ARIMAX) modelling techniques. The result showed that ARIMAX model outperformed the ARIMA (1,1,1) model generated when their performances were compared using the lower Bayesian information criterion, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error; and higher coefficient of determination (R-Squared) as accuracy measures. The findings of this study reveal that incorporating human, vehicle and environmental related factors in time series analysis of crash dataset produces a more robust predictive model than solely using aggregated crash count. This study contributes to the body of knowledge on road traffic safety and provides an approach to forecasting using many human, vehicle and environmental factors. The recommendations made in this study if applied will help in reducing the number of road traffic crashes in Nigeria. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statewide heavy-truck crash assessment.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-09-01

In 2010, 16.5 percent of all fatal vehicle crashes in Iowa involved large trucks compared to the national average of 7.8 percent. Only : about 16 percent of these fatalities involved the occupants of the heavy vehicles, meaning that a majority of the...

Accuracy of AHOF400 with a moment-measuring load cell barrier.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-13

Several performance measures derived from rigid : barrier crash testing have been proposed to assess : vehicle-to-vehicle crash compatibility. One such : measure, the Average Height of Force 400 (AHOF400) : [1], has been proposed to estimate the heig...

A Study of Bicycle and Passenger Car Collisions Based on Insurance Claims Data

PubMed Central

Isaksson-Hellman, Irene

2012-01-01

In Sweden, bicycle crashes are under-reported in the official statistics that are based on police reports. Statistics from hospital reports show that cyclists constitute the highest percentage of severely injured road users compared to other road user groups. However, hospital reports lack detailed information about the crash. To get a more comprehensive view, additional data are needed to accurately reflect the casualty situation for cyclists. An analysis based on 438 cases of bicycle and passenger car collisions is presented, using data collected from insurance claims. The most frequent crash situations are described with factors as to where and when collisions occur, age and gender of the involved cyclists and drivers. Information on environmental circumstances such as road status, weather- and light conditions, speedlimits and traffic environment is also included. Based on the various crash events, a total of 32 different scenarios have been categorized, and it was found that more than 75% were different kinds of intersection related situations. From the data, it was concluded that factors such as estimated impact speed and age significantly influence injury severity. The insurance claims data complement the official statistics and provide a more comprehensive view of bicycle and passenger car collisions by considering all levels of crash and injury severity. The detailed descriptions of the crash situations also provide an opportunity to find countermeasures to prevent or mitigate collisions. The results provide a useful basis, and facilitates the work of reducing the number of bicycle and passenger car collisions with serious consequences. PMID:23169111

Burden of hospitalizations for bicycling injuries by motor vehicle involvement: United States, 2002 to 2009.

PubMed

Hamann, Cara; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Lynch, Charles F; Ramirez, Marizen; Torner, James

2013-11-01

Bicycling and bicycling injuries have increased during the past decade in the United States, but research on the extent and outcomes of injuries has lagged behind. This study aimed to estimate the current burden of injury from bicycling injury hospitalizations by motor vehicle crash (MVC) and non-MVC in the United States. We included patients with primary or secondary diagnosis e-codes corresponding to MVC or non-MVC bicycle injury, drawn from the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2002-2009). Descriptive statistics, linear regression, and logistic regression were used to examine patient and hospital characteristics (length of stay, total charges, nonroutine discharges, and demographics) associated with hospitalizations for bicycling injuries by motor vehicle involvement. On average, from 2002 to 2009, there were an annually estimated 6,877 MVC and 18,457 non-MVC bicycle injury hospitalizations nationwide. This translates to more than $1 billion of hospital charges overall, $425 million for MVC and $588 million for non-MVC per year. After controlling for covariates, MVC bicycling injury hospitalizations had an average length of stay that was 2 days longer (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-2.3) and an average hospitalization charge of $23,424 more (95% CI, $21,360-$25,538) than non-MVC. Those with MVC bicycling injuries were more than two times as likely to have a nonroutine hospital discharge than non-MVC (odds ratio, 2.22; 95% CI, 2.06-2.39). The burden of injury from bicycle crashes is large overall, and MVC-related bicycling injuries result in longer hospital stays, higher costs, and more nonroutine hospital discharges than non-MVC, despite the fact that non-MVC hospitalizations are more frequent and result in higher total charges, overall. To have the greatest impact on reducing the burden of injury from bicycle crashes, educational interventions, policy, and infrastructure changes should include all age groups and prioritize reducing bicycle-motor vehicle collisions. Epidemiologic study, level III.

The relationship between liquor outlet density and injury and violence in New Mexico.

PubMed

Escobedo, Luis G; Ortiz, Melchor

2002-09-01

This study used an ecologic design based on data from 1990 to 1994 gathered from forensic, vital statistic, census, law enforcement and liquor licensing agencies to assess the relationship between liquor outlet density and alcohol-related health outcomes in New Mexico. Linear regression models show that suicide, alcohol-related crash, and alcohol-related crash fatality (adjusted for age, sex, and minority status) are significantly associated with liquor outlet density. Data also show that, compared with the first tertile, suicide and alcohol-related crash rates increase about 50% and the alcohol-related crash fatality rate two-fold with the third tertile of liquor outlet density. Greater availability of liquor outlets is associated with higher rates of suicide, alcohol-related crash, and alcohol-related crash fatality.

Analyses of rear-end crashes based on classification tree models.

PubMed

Yan, Xuedong; Radwan, Essam

2006-09-01

Signalized intersections are accident-prone areas especially for rear-end crashes due to the fact that the diversity of the braking behaviors of drivers increases during the signal change. The objective of this article is to improve knowledge of the relationship between rear-end crashes occurring at signalized intersections and a series of potential traffic risk factors classified by driver characteristics, environments, and vehicle types. Based on the 2001 Florida crash database, the classification tree method and Quasi-induced exposure concept were used to perform the statistical analysis. Two binary classification tree models were developed in this study. One was used for the crash comparison between rear-end and non-rear-end to identify those specific trends of the rear-end crashes. The other was constructed for the comparison between striking vehicles/drivers (at-fault) and struck vehicles/drivers (not-at-fault) to find more complex crash pattern associated with the traffic attributes of driver, vehicle, and environment. The modeling results showed that the rear-end crashes are over-presented in the higher speed limits (45-55 mph); the rear-end crash propensity for daytime is apparently larger than nighttime; and the reduction of braking capacity due to wet and slippery road surface conditions would definitely contribute to rear-end crashes, especially at intersections with higher speed limits. The tree model segmented drivers into four homogeneous age groups: < 21 years, 21-31 years, 32-75 years, and > 75 years. The youngest driver group shows the largest crash propensity; in the 21-31 age group, the male drivers are over-involved in rear-end crashes under adverse weather conditions and the 32-75 years drivers driving large size vehicles have a larger crash propensity compared to those driving passenger vehicles. Combined with the quasi-induced exposure concept, the classification tree method is a proper statistical tool for traffic-safety analysis to investigate crash propensity. Compared to the logistic regression models, tree models have advantages for handling continuous independent variables and easily explaining the complex interaction effect with more than two independent variables. This research recommended that at signalized intersections with higher speed limits, reducing the speed limit to 40 mph efficiently contribute to a lower accident rate. Drivers involved in alcohol use may increase not only rear-end crash risk but also the driver injury severity. Education and enforcement countermeasures should focus on the driver group younger than 21 years. Further studies are suggested to compare crash risk distributions of the driver age for other main crash types to seek corresponding traffic countermeasures.

Traffic crash statistics report, 2002

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-10-29

In 2002, Florida continued to see improvements in traffi c safety. Statewide, the number of : traffi c crashes reported and investigated was down 2.2 percent from 2001. Alcohol-related fatalities, : as a percent of total fatalities, decreased by 1.2 ...

Improving safety of teenage and young adult drivers in Kansas.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-01

Statistics show that young drivers have higher motor vehicle crash rates compared to other age groups. This study investigated : characteristics, contributory causes, and factors which increase injury severity of young driver crashes in Kansas by com...

Compulsive cell phone use and history of motor vehicle crash.

PubMed

O'Connor, Stephen S; Whitehill, Jennifer M; King, Kevin M; Kernic, Mary A; Boyle, Linda Ng; Bresnahan, Brian W; Mack, Christopher D; Ebel, Beth E

2013-10-01

Few studies have examined the psychological factors underlying the association between cell phone use and motor vehicle crash. We sought to examine the factor structure and convergent validity of a measure of problematic cell phone use, and to explore whether compulsive cell phone use is associated with a history of motor vehicle crash. We recruited a sample of 383 undergraduate college students to complete an online assessment that included cell phone use and driving history. We explored the dimensionality of the Cell Phone Overuse Scale (CPOS) using factor analytic methods. Ordinary least-squares regression models were used to examine associations between identified subscales and measures of impulsivity, alcohol use, and anxious relationship style, to establish convergent validity. We used negative binomial regression models to investigate associations between the CPOS and motor vehicle crash incidence. We found the CPOS to be composed of four subscales: anticipation, activity interfering, emotional reaction, and problem recognition. Each displayed significant associations with aspects of impulsivity, problematic alcohol use, and anxious relationship style characteristics. Only the anticipation subscale demonstrated statistically significant associations with reported motor vehicle crash incidence, controlling for clinical and demographic characteristics (relative ratio, 1.13; confidence interval, 1.01-1.26). For each 1-point increase on the 6-point anticipation subscale, risk for previous motor vehicle crash increased by 13%. Crash risk is strongly associated with heightened anticipation about incoming phone calls or messages. The mean score on the CPOS is associated with increased risk of motor vehicle crash but does not reach statistical significance. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Compulsive Cell Phone Use and History of Motor Vehicle Crash

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Stephen S.; Whitehill, Jennifer M.; King, Kevin M.; Kernic, Mary A.; Boyle, Linda Ng; Bresnahan, Brian; Mack, Christopher D.; Ebel, Beth E.

2013-01-01

Introduction Few studies have examined the psychological factors underlying the association between cell phone use and motor vehicle crash. We sought to examine the factor structure and convergent validity of a measure of problematic cell phone use and explore whether compulsive cell phone use is associated with a history of motor vehicle crash. Methods We recruited a sample of 383 undergraduate college students to complete an on-line assessment that included cell phone use and driving history. We explored the dimensionality of the Cell Phone Overuse Scale (CPOS) using factor analytic methods. Ordinary least squares regression models were used to examine associations between identified subscales and measures of impulsivity, alcohol use, and anxious relationship style to establish convergent validity. We used negative binomial regression models to investigate associations between the CPOS and motor vehicle crash incidence. Results We found the CPOS to be comprised of four subscales: anticipation, activity interfering, emotional reaction, and problem recognition. Each displayed significant associations with aspects of impulsivity, problematic alcohol use, and anxious relationship style characteristics. Only the anticipation subscale demonstrated statistically significant associations with reported motor vehicle crash incidence, controlling for clinical and demographic characteristics (RR 1.13, CI 1.01 to 1.26). For each one-point increase on the 6-point anticipation subscale, risk for previous motor vehicle crash increased by 13%. Conclusions Crash risk is strongly associated with heightened anticipation about incoming phone calls or messages. The mean score on the CPOS is associated with increased risk of motor vehicle crash but does not reach statistical significance. PMID:23910571

A novel approach for analyzing severe crash patterns on multilane highways.

PubMed

Pande, Anurag; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2009-09-01

This study presents a novel approach for analysis of patterns in severe crashes that occur on mid-block segments of multilane highways with partially limited access. A within stratum matched crash vs. non-crash classification approach is adopted towards that end. Under this approach crashes serve as units of analysis and it does not require aggregation of crash data over arterial segments of arbitrary lengths. Also, the proposed approach does not use information on non-severe crashes and hence is not affected by under-reporting of the minor crashes. Random samples of time, day of week, and location (i.e., milepost) combinations were collected for multilane arterials in the state of Florida and matched with severe crashes from the corresponding corridor to form matched strata consisting of severe crash and non-crash cases. For these cases, geometric design/roadside and traffic characteristics were derived based on the corresponding milepost locations. Four groups of crashes, severe rear-end, lane-change related, pedestrian, and single-vehicle/off-road crashes, on multilane arterials segments were compared separately to the non-crash cases. Severe lane-change related crashes may primarily be attributed to exposure while single-vehicle crashes and pedestrian crashes have no significant relationship with the ADT (Average Daily Traffic). For severe rear-end crashes speed limit, ADT, K-factor, time of day/day of week, median type, pavement condition, and presence of horizontal curvature were significant factors. The proposed approach uses general roadway characteristics as independent variables rather than event-specific information (i.e., crash characteristics such as driver/vehicle details); it has the potential to fit within a safety evaluation framework for arterial segments.

Traffic safety facts 1998 : pedestrians

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

In 1998, 5,220 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in the United States - a decrease of 24 percent from the 6,870 pedestrians killed in 1988. On average, a pedestrian is killed in a traffic crash every 101 minutes. There were 69,000 pedestrian...

Traffic safety facts 1999 : pedestrians

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

In 1999, 4,906 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in the United States - a decrease of 25 percent from the 6,556 pedestrians killed in 1989. On average, a pedestrian is killed in a traffic crash every 107 minutes. There were 85,000 pedestrian...

Traffic safety facts 2000 : pedestrians

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

In 2000, 4,739 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in the United States - a decrease of 27 percent from the 6,482 pedestrians killed in 1990. On average, a pedestrian is killed in a traffic crash every 111 minutes. There were 78,000 pedestrian...

2003 Wisconsin traffic crash facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-10-01

2003 Facts and Figures: 836 persons were killed in Wisconsin motor vehicle traffic crashes. This is an average of two lives lost each day on Wisconsin trafficways. The fatality rate per 100 million miles of travel was 1.4, compared to 1.37 in 2002. 5...

Traffic safety facts 1998 : pedestrian

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

In 1998, 5,220 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in the United States - a decrease of 24% from the 6,870 pedestrians killed in 1988. On average, a pedestrian is killed in a traffic crash every 101 minutes. There were 69,000 pedestrians injur...

The Effect of Alcohol and Road Traffic Policies on Crash Rates in Botswana, 2004–2011: A Time-Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Sebego, Miriam; Naumann, Rebecca B.; Rudd, Rose A.; Voetsch, Karen; Dellinger, Ann M.; Ndlovu, Christopher

2015-01-01

In Botswana, increased development and motorization have brought increased road traffic-related death rates. Between 1981 and 2001, the road traffic-related death rate in Botswana more than tripled. The country has taken several steps over the last several years to address the growing burden of road traffic crashes and particularly to address the burden of alcohol-related crashes. This study examines the impact of the implementation of alcohol and road safety-related policies on crash rates, including overall crash rates, fatal crash rates, and single-vehicle nighttime fatal (SVNF) crash rates, in Botswana from 2004 to 2011. The overall crash rate declined significantly in June 2009 and June 2010, such that the overall crash rate from June 2010 to December 2011 was 22% lower than the overall crash rate from January 2004 to May 2009. Additionally, there were significant declines in average fatal crash and SVNF crash rates in early 2010. Botswana’s recent crash rate reductions occurred during a time when aggressive policies and other activities (e.g., education, enforcement) were implemented to reduce alcohol consumption and improve road safety. While it is unclear which of the policies or activities contributed to these declines and to what extent, these reductions are likely the result of several, combined efforts. PMID:24686164

The impact of alcohol and road traffic policies on crash rates in Botswana, 2004-2011: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Sebego, Miriam; Naumann, Rebecca B; Rudd, Rose A; Voetsch, Karen; Dellinger, Ann M; Ndlovu, Christopher

2014-09-01

In Botswana, increased development and motorization have brought increased road traffic-related death rates. Between 1981 and 2001, the road traffic-related death rate in Botswana more than tripled. The country has taken several steps over the last several years to address the growing burden of road traffic crashes and particularly to address the burden of alcohol-related crashes. This study examines the impact of the implementation of alcohol and road safety-related policies on crash rates, including overall crash rates, fatal crash rates, and single-vehicle nighttime fatal (SVNF) crash rates, in Botswana from 2004 to 2011. The overall crash rate declined significantly in June 2009 and June 2010, such that the overall crash rate from June 2010 to December 2011 was 22% lower than the overall crash rate from January 2004 to May 2009. Additionally, there were significant declines in average fatal crash and SVNF crash rates in early 2010. Botswana's recent crash rate reductions occurred during a time when aggressive policies and other activities (e.g., education, enforcement) were implemented to reduce alcohol consumption and improve road safety. While it is unclear which of the policies or activities contributed to these declines and to what extent, these reductions are likely the result of several, combined efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2009

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

In 2009, the state of Illinois became a safer place to travel in an automobile as a result of our successful efforts to improve traffic safety. Illinois finished the year with 911 fatalities the lowest number of people killed in auto crashes sinc...

2010 traffic crash facts annual report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

The death rate on Nebraska roadways during 2010 was .97 persons killed per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. This is the lowest death rate recorded since the state first began keeping motor vehicle crash statistics in 1936. The trend of declining d...

Demographic factors and traffic crashes. Part 1, descriptive statistics and models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-08-01

This research analyzes the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicle's (DHSMV) 1993 to 1995 crash data. There are four demographic variables investigated throughout the research, which are age, gender, race, and residency. To show general trends...

Problem area descriptions : motor vehicle crashes - data analysis and IVI program analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

In general, the IVI program focuses on the more significant safety problem categories as : indicated by statistical analyses of crash data. However, other factors were considered in setting : program priorities and schedules. For some problem areas, ...

Traffic crash statistics report, 2007

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

Fatalities as a result of traffic crashes on Florida roadways decreased to 3,221 in 2007 from 3,365 in 2006. For the second consecutive year in more than 10 years, traffic fatalities have decreased from the previous year; State mileage Death rate dec...

Improving safety of teenage and young adult drivers in Kansas : [technical summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-01

Statistics show that young drivers have higher motor vehicle crash rates compared to other age groups. This study investigated characteristics, contributory causes, and factors which increase injury severity of young driver crashes in Kansas by compa...

The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazola, L.; Fernandes, C.; Pizzinga, A.; Riera, R.

2008-02-01

This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model of price movements, which has been largely used to forecast financial crashes. In order to accomplish reliable statistical inference for unknown parameters, we incorporate an autoregressive dynamic and a conditional heteroskedasticity structure in the error term of the original model, yielding the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Both the original and the extended models are fitted to financial indices of U. S. market, namely S&P500 and NASDAQ. Our analysis reveal two main points: (i) the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model has residuals with better statistical properties and (ii) the estimation of the parameter concerning the time of the financial crash has been improved.

Development and validation of a generic finite element vehicle buck model for the analysis of driver rib fractures in real life nearside oblique frontal crashes.

PubMed

Iraeus, Johan; Lindquist, Mats

2016-10-01

Frontal crashes still account for approximately half of all fatalities in passenger cars, despite several decades of crash-related research. For serious injuries in this crash mode, several authors have listed the thorax as the most important. Computer simulation provides an effective tool to study crashes and evaluate injury mechanisms, and using stochastic input data, whole populations of crashes can be studied. The aim of this study was to develop a generic buck model and to validate this model on a population of real-life frontal crashes in terms of the risk of rib fracture. The study was conducted in four phases. In the first phase, real-life validation data were derived by analyzing NASS/CDS data to find the relationship between injury risk and crash parameters. In addition, available statistical distributions for the parameters were collected. In the second phase, a generic parameterized finite element (FE) model of a vehicle interior was developed based on laser scans from the A2MAC1 database. In the third phase, model parameters that could not be found in the literature were estimated using reverse engineering based on NCAP tests. Finally, in the fourth phase, the stochastic FE model was used to simulate a population of real-life crashes, and the result was compared to the validation data from phase one. The stochastic FE simulation model overestimates the risk of rib fracture, more for young occupants and less for senior occupants. However, if the effect of underestimation of rib fractures in the NASS/CDS material is accounted for using statistical simulations, the risk of rib fracture based on the stochastic FE model matches the risk based on the NASS/CDS data for senior occupants. The current version of the stochastic model can be used to evaluate new safety measures using a population of frontal crashes for senior occupants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety modeling of urban arterials in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Wang, Xuesong; Fan, Tianxiang; Chen, Ming; Deng, Bing; Wu, Bing; Tremont, Paul

2015-10-01

Traffic safety on urban arterials is influenced by several key variables including geometric design features, land use, traffic volume, and travel speeds. This paper is an exploratory study of the relationship of these variables to safety. It uses a comparatively new method of measuring speeds by extracting GPS data from taxis operating on Shanghai's urban network. This GPS derived speed data, hereafter called Floating Car Data (FCD) was used to calculate average speeds during peak and off-peak hours, and was acquired from samples of 15,000+ taxis traveling on 176 segments over 18 major arterials in central Shanghai. Geometric design features of these arterials and surrounding land use characteristics were obtained by field investigation, and crash data was obtained from police reports. Bayesian inference using four different models, Poisson-lognormal (PLN), PLN with Maximum Likelihood priors (PLN-ML), hierarchical PLN (HPLN), and HPLN with Maximum Likelihood priors (HPLN-ML), was used to estimate crash frequencies. Results showed the HPLN-ML models had the best goodness-of-fit and efficiency, and models with ML priors yielded estimates with the lowest standard errors. Crash frequencies increased with increases in traffic volume. Higher average speeds were associated with higher crash frequencies during peak periods, but not during off-peak periods. Several geometric design features including average segment length of arterial, number of lanes, presence of non-motorized lanes, number of access points, and commercial land use, were positively related to crash frequencies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Traffic crash statistics report, 2006

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

Fatalities as a result of traffic crashes on Florida roadways decreased to 3,365 in 2006 from 3,533 in 2005 **for the first time in more than 10 years traffic fatalities have decreased from the previous year; State Mileage Death Rate decreased to 1.6...

Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences.

PubMed

Zheng, Zuduo; Ahn, Soyoung; Monsere, Christopher M

2010-03-01

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations (stop-and-go driving). The negative environmental impacts of these oscillations are widely accepted, but their impact on traffic safety has been debated. This paper describes the impact of freeway traffic oscillations on traffic safety. This study employs a matched case-control design using high-resolution traffic and crash data from a freeway segment. Traffic conditions prior to each crash were taken as cases, while traffic conditions during the same periods on days without crashes were taken as controls. These were also matched by presence of congestion, geometry and weather. A total of 82 cases and about 80,000 candidate controls were extracted from more than three years of data from 2004 to 2007. Conditional logistic regression models were developed based on the case-control samples. To verify consistency in the results, 20 different sets of controls were randomly extracted from the candidate pool for varying control-case ratios. The results reveal that the standard deviation of speed (thus, oscillations) is a significant variable, with an average odds ratio of about 1.08. This implies that the likelihood of a (rear-end) crash increases by about 8% with an additional unit increase in the standard deviation of speed. The average traffic states prior to crashes were less significant than the speed variations in congestion. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Helicopter crashes related to oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Baker, Susan P; Shanahan, Dennis F; Haaland, Wren; Brady, Joanne E; Li, Guohua

2011-09-01

The hazards inherent in flight operations in the Gulf of Mexico prompted investigation of the number and circumstances of crashes related to oil and gas operations in the region. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database was queried for helicopter crashes during 1983 through 2009 related to Gulf of Mexico oil or gas production. The crashes were identified based on word searches confirmed by a narrative statement indicating that the flight was related to oil or gas operations. During 1983-2009, the NTSB recorded a total of 178 helicopter crashes related to oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico, with an average of 6.6 crashes per year (5.6 annually during 1983-1999 vs. 8.2 during 2000-2009). The crashes resulted in a total of 139 fatalities, including 41 pilots. Mechanical failure was the most common precipitating factor, accounting for 68 crashes (38%). Bad weather led to 29 crashes (16%), in which 40% of the 139 deaths occurred. Pilot error was cited by the NTSB in 83 crashes (47%). After crashes or emergency landings on water, 15 helicopters sank when flotation devices were not activated automatically or by pilots. Mechanical failure, non-activation of flotation, and pilot error are major problems to be addressed if crashes and deaths in this lethal environment are to be reduced.

Hazards of mountain flying: crashes in the Colorado Rockies.

PubMed

Baker, S P; Lamb, M W

1989-06-01

Between 1964 and 1987, 232 airplanes crashed within 50 nautical miles of Aspen, CO; 90% were general aviation crashes. A total of 202 people died and 69 were seriously injured. The societal cost averaged more than $4 million annually. Most pilots were experienced and many were flight instructors, but 44% had flown less than 100 hours in the type of plane in which they crashed. Forty-one percent of the pilots were out-of-state residents. Crashes in the study area were more likely to be fatal than in the rest of Colorado. Airplanes with three or four occupants and low-powered four-seater aircraft were over-represented among crashes involving failure to outclimb rising terrain. In a subset of crashes examined for restraint use, 50% of the front seat occupants using only lap belts were killed, compared to 13% of those who also wore shoulder restraints. Preventive recommendations include shoulder restraint use and better training in mountain flying, with incentives provided by the FAA and insurance companies.

Difference between car-to-cyclist crash and near crash in a perpendicular crash configuration based on driving recorder analysis.

PubMed

Ito, Daisuke; Hayakawa, Kosei; Kondo, Yuma; Mizuno, Koji; Thomson, Robert; Piccinini, Giulio Bianchi; Hosokawa, Naruyuki

2018-08-01

Analyzing a crash using driving recorder data makes it possible to objectively examine factors contributing to the occurrence of the crash. In this study, car-to-cyclist crashes and near crashes recorded on cars equipped with advanced driving recorders were compared with each other in order to examine the factors that differentiate near crashes from crashes, as well as identify the causes of the crashes. Focusing on cases where the car and cyclist approached each other perpendicularly, the differences in the car's and cyclist's parameters such as velocity, distance and avoidance behavior were analyzed. The results show that car-to-cyclist crashes would not be avoidable when the car approaching the cyclist enters an area where the average deceleration required to stop the car is more than 0.45 G (4.4 m/s 2 ). In order for this situation to occur, there are two types of cyclist crash scenarios. In the first scenario, the delay in the drivers' reaction in activating the brakes is the main factor responsible for the crash. In this scenario, time-to-collision when the cyclist first appears in the video is more than 2.0 s. In the second scenario, the sudden appearance of a cyclist from behind an obstacle on the street is the factor responsible for the crash. In this case, the time-to-collision is less than 1.2 s, and the crash cannot be avoided even if the driver exhibited avoidance maneuvers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contributory factors to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Wong, S C; Sze, N N; Li, Y C

2007-11-01

Efficient geometric design and signal timing not only improve operational performance at signalized intersections by expanding capacity and reducing traffic delays, but also result in an appreciable reduction in traffic conflicts, and thus better road safety. Information on the incidence of crashes, traffic flow, geometric design, road environment, and traffic control at 262 signalized intersections in Hong Kong during 2002 and 2003 are incorporated into a crash prediction model. Poisson regression and negative binomial regression are used to quantify the influence of possible contributory factors on the incidence of killed and severe injury (KSI) crashes and slight injury crashes, respectively, while possible interventions by traffic flow are controlled. The results for the incidence of slight injury crashes reveal that the road environment, degree of curvature, and presence of tram stops are significant factors, and that traffic volume has a diminishing effect on the crash risk. The presence of tram stops, number of pedestrian streams, road environment, proportion of commercial vehicles, average lane width, and degree of curvature increase the risk of KSI crashes, but the effect of traffic volume is negligible.

School start times and teenage driver motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Foss, Robert D; Smith, Richard L; O'Brien, Natalie P

2018-04-26

Shifting school start times to 8:30 am or later has been found to improve academic performance and reduce behavior problems. Limited research suggests this may also reduce adolescent driver motor vehicle crashes. A change in the school start time from 7:30 am to 8:45 am for all public high schools in one North Carolina county presented the opportunity to address this question with greater methodologic rigor. We conducted ARIMA interrupted time-series analyses to examine motor vehicle crash rates of high school age drivers in the intervention county and 3 similar comparison counties with comparable urban-rural population distribution. To focus on crashes most likely to be affected, we limited analysis to crashes involving 16- & 17-year-old drivers occurring on days when school was in session. In the intervention county, there was a 14% downward shift in the time-series following the 75 min delay in school start times (p = .076). There was no change approaching statistical significance in any of the other three counties. Further analysis indicated marked, statistically significant shifts in hourly crash rates in the intervention county, reflecting effects of the change in school start time on young driver exposure. Crashes from 7 to 7:59 am decreased sharply (-25%, p = .008), but increased similarly from 8 to 8:59 am (21%, p = .004). Crashes from 2 to 2:59 pm declined dramatically (-48%, p = .000), then increased to a lesser degree from 3 to 3:59 pm (32%, p = .024) and non-significantly from 4 to 4:59 (19%, p = .102). There was no meaningful change in early morning or nighttime crashes, when drowsiness-induced crashes might have been expected to be most common. The small decrease in crashes among high school age drivers following the shift in school start time is consistent with the findings of other studies of teen driver crashes and school start times. All these studies, including the present one, have limitations, but the similar findings suggest that crashes and school start times are indeed related, with earlier start times equating to more crashes. Later high school start times (>8:30 am) appear to be associated with lower adolescent driver crash rates, but additional research is needed to confirm this and to identify the mechanism by which this occurs (reduced drowsiness or reduced exposure). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of decreases in vehicle weight on injury crash rates

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

This study presents the results of an analysis to estimate the effect of a one hundred (1 00) pound reduction in the : average weight of passenger vehicles on the crash rates of driver incapacitating injury. The analysis was conducted : as a part of ...

A comparative study of count models: application to pedestrian-vehicle crashes along Malaysia federal roads.

PubMed

Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Pour, Mehdi Hossein; Prasetijo, Joewono; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Ghadiri, Seyed Mohammad Reza

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effects of various roadway characteristics on the incidence of pedestrian-vehicle crashes by developing a set of crash prediction models on 543 km of Malaysia federal roads over a 4-year time span between 2007 and 2010. Four count models including the Poisson, negative binomial (NB), hurdle Poisson (HP), and hurdle negative binomial (HNB) models were developed and compared to model the number of pedestrian crashes. The results indicated the presence of overdispersion in the pedestrian crashes (PCs) and showed that it is due to excess zero rather than variability in the crash data. To handle the issue, the hurdle Poisson model was found to be the best model among the considered models in terms of comparative measures. Moreover, the variables average daily traffic, heavy vehicle traffic, speed limit, land use, and area type were significantly associated with PCs.

How bicycle level of traffic stress correlate with reported cyclist accidents injury severities: A geospatial and mixed logit analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Chen; Anderson, Jason C; Wang, Haizhong; Wang, Yinhai; Vogt, Rachel; Hernandez, Salvador

2017-11-01

Transportation agencies need efficient methods to determine how to reduce bicycle accidents while promoting cycling activities and prioritizing safety improvement investments. Many studies have used standalone methods, such as level of traffic stress (LTS) and bicycle level of service (BLOS), to better understand bicycle mode share and network connectivity for a region. However, in most cases, other studies rely on crash severity models to explain what variables contribute to the severity of bicycle related crashes. This research uniquely correlates bicycle LTS with reported bicycle crash locations for four cities in New Hampshire through geospatial mapping. LTS measurements and crash locations are compared visually using a GIS framework. Next, a bicycle injury severity model, that incorporates LTS measurements, is created through a mixed logit modeling framework. Results of the visual analysis show some geospatial correlation between higher LTS roads and "Injury" type bicycle crashes. It was determined, statistically, that LTS has an effect on the severity level of bicycle crashes and high LTS can have varying effects on severity outcome. However, it is recommended that further analyses be conducted to better understand the statistical significance and effect of LTS on injury severity. As such, this research will validate the use of LTS as a proxy for safety risk regardless of the recorded bicycle crash history. This research will help identify the clustering patterns of bicycle crashes on high-risk corridors and, therefore, assist with bicycle route planning and policy making. This paper also suggests low-cost countermeasures or treatments that can be implemented to address high-risk areas. Specifically, with the goal of providing safer routes for cyclists, such countermeasures or treatments have the potential to substantially reduce the number of fatalities and severe injuries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Occupational aviation fatalities--Alaska, 2000-2010.

PubMed

2011-07-01

Aircraft crashes are the second leading cause of occupational deaths in Alaska; during the 1990s, a total of 108 fatal aviation crashes resulted in 155 occupational fatalities. To update data and identify risk factors for occupational death from aircraft crashes, CDC reviewed data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the Alaska Occupational Injury Surveillance System. During 2000--2010, a total of 90 occupational fatalities occurred as a result of 54 crashes, an average of five fatal aircraft crashes and eight fatalities per year. Among those crashes, 21 (39%) were associated with intended takeoffs or landings at landing sites not registered with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Fifteen crashes (28%) were associated with weather, including poor visibility, wind, and turbulence. In addition, 11 crashes (20%) resulted from pilots' loss of aircraft control; nine (17%) from pilots' failure to maintain clearance from terrain, water, or objects; and seven (13%) from engine, structure, or component failure. To reduce occupational fatalities resulting from aircraft crashes in the state, safety interventions should focus on providing weather and other flight information to increase pilots' situational awareness, maintaining pilot proficiency and decision-making abilities, and expanding the infrastructure used by pilots to fly by instruments.

Not-in-traffic surveillance 2007 : highlights : a brief statistical summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

The Not-in-Traffic Surveillance (NiTS) system is a virtual data collection system designed to provide counts and details regarding fatalities and injuries that occur in nontraffic crashes and in non-crash incidents. The NiTS 2007 system produced an o...

Validity and usability of a safe driving behaviors measure for older adults : strategy for congestion mitigation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

Statistics project that crash/injury/fatality rates of older drivers will increase with the future growth of : this population. Accurate and precise measurement of older driver behaviors becomes imperative to : curtail these crash trends and resultin...

Statistical analysis of alcohol-related driving trends, 1982-2005

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-05-01

Overall, the percent of drivers involved in fatal crashes who had consumed alcohol and had blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of .08 or above prior to the crash steadily decreased from 1982 to 1997 and then leveled off (more or less). In an attempt to...

Moving beyond teen crash fatality statistics : the go-team study.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-08

Despite a trend of decreasing teen fatalities due to motor vehicle crashes over the past decade, they remain the leading cause : of adolescent fatalities in Iowa. The purpose of this study was to create detailed case studies of each fatal motor vehic...

The Role Of Driver Inattention In Crashes; New Statistics From The 1995 Crashworthiness Data System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-08-08

INTELLIGENT VEHICLE INITIATIVE OR IVI : IN 1995, NHTSA BEGAN EMPLOYING THE CRASHWORTHINESS DATA SYSTEM (CDS) TO OBTAIN MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION ON DRIVER INATTENTION-RELATED CRASH CAUSES, INCLUDING DROWSINESS AND MANY FORMS OF DISTRACTION. CDS IS PO...

Understanding fatal older road user crash circumstances and risk factors.

PubMed

Koppel, Sjaan; Bugeja, Lyndal; Smith, Daisy; Lamb, Ashne; Dwyer, Jeremy; Fitzharris, Michael; Newstead, Stuart; D'Elia, Angelo; Charlton, Judith

2018-02-28

This study used medicolegal data to investigate fatal older road user (ORU) crash circumstances and risk factors relating to four key components of the Safe System approach (e.g., roads and roadsides, vehicles, road users, and speeds) to identify areas of priority for targeted prevention activity. The Coroners Court of Victoria's Surveillance Database was searched to identify coronial records with at least one deceased ORU in the state of Victoria, Australia, for 2013-2014. Information relating to the ORU, crash characteristics and circumstances, and risk factors was extracted and analyzed. The average rate of fatal ORU crashes per 100,000 population was 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0-10.2), which was more than double the average rate of fatal middle-aged road user crashes (3.6, 95% CI 2.5-4.6). There was a significant relationship between age group and deceased road user type (χ 2 (15, N = 226) = 3.56, p < 0.001). The proportion of deceased drivers decreased with age, whereas the proportion of deceased pedestrians increased with age. The majority of fatal ORU crashes involved a counterpart (another vehicle: 59.4%; fixed/stationary object: 25.4%), and occurred "on road" (87.0%), on roads that were paved (94.2%), dry (74.2%), and had light traffic volume (38.3%). Road user error was identified by the police and/or coroner for the majority of fatal ORU crashes (57.9%), with a significant proportion of deceased ORU deemed to have "misjudged" (40.9%) or "failed to yield" (37.9%). Road user error was the most significant risk factor identified in fatal ORU crashes, which suggests that there is a limited capacity of the Victorian road system to fully accommodate road user errors. Initiatives related to safer roads and roadsides, vehicles, and speed zones, as well as behavioral approaches, are key areas of priority for targeted activity to prevent fatal older road user crashes in the future.

Identifying work-related motor vehicle crashes in multiple databases.

PubMed

Thomas, Andrea M; Thygerson, Steven M; Merrill, Ray M; Cook, Lawrence J

2012-01-01

To compare and estimate the magnitude of work-related motor vehicle crashes in Utah using 2 probabilistically linked statewide databases. Data from 2006 and 2007 motor vehicle crash and hospital databases were joined through probabilistic linkage. Summary statistics and capture-recapture were used to describe occupants injured in work-related motor vehicle crashes and estimate the size of this population. There were 1597 occupants in the motor vehicle crash database and 1673 patients in the hospital database identified as being in a work-related motor vehicle crash. We identified 1443 occupants with at least one record from either the motor vehicle crash or hospital database indicating work-relatedness that linked to any record in the opposing database. We found that 38.7 percent of occupants injured in work-related motor vehicle crashes identified in the motor vehicle crash database did not have a primary payer code of workers' compensation in the hospital database and 40.0 percent of patients injured in work-related motor vehicle crashes identified in the hospital database did not meet our definition of a work-related motor vehicle crash in the motor vehicle crash database. Depending on how occupants injured in work-related motor crashes are identified, we estimate the population to be between 1852 and 8492 in Utah for the years 2006 and 2007. Research on single databases may lead to biased interpretations of work-related motor vehicle crashes. Combining 2 population based databases may still result in an underestimate of the magnitude of work-related motor vehicle crashes. Improved coding of work-related incidents is needed in current databases.

Social costs of road crashes: An international analysis.

PubMed

Wijnen, Wim; Stipdonk, Henk

2016-09-01

This paper provides an international overview of the most recent estimates of the social costs of road crashes: total costs, value per casualty and breakdown in cost components. The analysis is based on publications about the national costs of road crashes of 17 countries, of which ten high income countries (HICs) and seven low and middle income countries (LMICs). Costs are expressed as a proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP). Differences between countries are described and explained. These are partly a consequence of differences in the road safety level, but there are also methodological explanations. Countries may or may not correct for underreporting of road crashes, they may or may not use the internationally recommended willingness to pay (WTP)-method for estimating human costs, and there are methodological differences regarding the calculation of some other cost components. The analysis shows that the social costs of road crashes in HICs range from 0.5% to 6.0% of the GDP with an average of 2.7%. Excluding countries that do not use a WTP- method for estimating human costs and countries that do not correct for underreporting, results in average costs of 3.3% of GDP. For LMICs that do correct for underreporting the share in GDP ranges from 1.1% to 2.9%. However, none of the LMICs included has performed a WTP study of the human costs. A major part of the costs is related to injuries: an average share of 50% for both HICs and LMICs. The average share of fatalities in the costs is 23% and 30% respectively. Prevention of injuries is thus important to bring down the socio-economic burden of road crashes. The paper shows that there are methodological differences between countries regarding cost components that are taken into account and regarding the methods used to estimate specific cost components. In order to be able to make sound comparisons of the costs of road crashes across countries, (further) harmonization of cost studies is recommended. This can be achieved by updating and improving international guidelines and applying them in future cost studies. The information regarding some cost components, particularly human costs and property damage, is poor and more research into these cost components is recommended. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Injury risks for on-road farm equipment and horse and buggy crashes in Pennsylvania: 2010-2013.

PubMed

Gorucu, Serap; Murphy, Dennis J; Kassab, Cathy

2017-04-03

The purpose of this study was to investigate characteristics associated with farm equipment and horse and buggy roadway crashes in relation to person, incident, and injury characteristics to identify appropriate points for injury incident prevention. Information on crashes occurring on public roads during the years 2010-2013 was obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) and analyzed. There were 344 farm equipment and 246 horse and buggy crashes during the 4-year study period. These crashes involved 666 and 504 vehicles and 780 and 838 people, respectively. In incidents with farm equipment, the non-farm equipment drivers had an almost 2 times greater injury risk than farm equipment operators. Horse and buggy crashes were almost 3 times more injurious to the horse and buggy drivers than the drivers of the other vehicles. The average crash rate for farm equipment was 198.4 crashes per 100,000 farm population and for horse and buggy the crash rate was calculated as 89.4 crashes per 100,000 Amish population per year. This study suggests that road safety and public health programs should focus not only on farm equipment operators and horse and buggy drivers but on other motorists sharing the roadway with them.

Age and gender differences in conviction and crash occurrence subsequent to being directed to Iowa's driver improvement program.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Gkritza, Konstantina; Keren, Nir; Nambisan, Shashi

2011-10-01

This paper investigates potential gender and age differences in conviction and crash occurrence subsequent to being directed to attend Iowa's Driver Improvement Program (DIP). Binary logit models were developed to investigate the factors that influence conviction occurrence after DIP by gender and age. Because of the low crash occurrence subsequent to DIP, association rules were applied to investigate the factors that influence crash occurrence subsequent to DIP, in lieu of econometric models. There were statistical significant differences by driver gender, age, and conviction history in the likelihood of subsequent convictions. However, this paper found no association between DIP outcome, crash history, and crash occurrence. Evaluating the differences in conviction and crash occurrence subsequent to DIP between female and male drivers, and among different age groups can lead to improvements of the effectiveness of DIPs and help to identify low-cost intervention measures, customized based on drivers' gender and age, for improving driving behaviors. Copyright © 2011 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xi, P. W.; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550; Xu, X. Q.

We demonstrate that the occurrence of Edge-Localized-Modes (ELM) crashes does not depend only on the linear peeling-ballooning threshold, but also relies on nonlinear processes. Wave-wave interaction constrains the growth time of a mode, thus inducing a shift in the criterion for triggering an ELM crash. An ELM crash requires the P-B growth rate to exceed a critical value γ>γ{sub c}, where γ{sub c} is set by 1/τ{sup ¯}{sub c}, and τ{sup ¯}{sub c} is the averaged mode phase coherence time. For 0

Statewide traffic safety study phase II : identification of major traffic safety problem areas in Louisiana.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-04-01

This report summarizes a study that seeks to identify the factors leading to the high crash rate experienced on Louisiana highways. Factors were identified by comparing statistics from the Louisiana Crash Database with those from peer states using th...

A firm size and safety performance profile of the U.S. motor carrier industry : [executive summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-11-01

Motor carrier crashes continue to present a societal and public policy : problem. Large commercial truck crashes are a topic of serious concern : in Iowa. Statistics illustrate the need to make further progress on the : safety performance of motor ca...

Functional recovery patterns in seriously injured automotive crash victims.

PubMed

McMurry, Timothy L; Poplin, Gerald S; Crandall, Jeff

2016-09-01

The functional capacity index (FCI) is designed to predict functional loss 12 months post-injury for each injury in the 2008 Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) manual on a scale from 0 (death) to 100 (full recovery), but FCI has never been validated. This study compared FCI predicted loss with patient-reported 12-month outcomes as measured through the Short Form 36 (SF-36) health assessment survey. Using follow-up data collected on 2,858 adult car crash occupants in the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) database, we compared FCI predicted outcomes to occupants' Physical Component Summary (PCS) scores, which are weighted averages of the SF-36 items addressing physical function. Our analyses included descriptive statistics, plots of typical recovery patterns, and a mixed effects regression model that describes PCS as a function of FCI, demographics, comorbidities, and injury pattern while also adjusting for the occupants' pre-crash physical capabilities. We further examined injuries in patients who report a significant drop in PCS 12 months post-crash despite being predicted to fully recover. At baseline, the CIREN population exhibited PCS scores similar to the overall population (mean = 51.1, SD = 10.3). Twelve months post-crash, occupants with predicted impairment (FCI < 100) report a substantial decrease in physical function, and those who were predicted to fully recover still report some, albeit less, impairment. In the multivariate mixed-effects regression model, FCI is a strongly significant (P-value <.0001) predictor of PCS, with each 1-point drop in FCI predicting a 0.27-point drop in PCS. Maximum AIS severities in the head, spine, and lower extremity body regions were also significantly associated with PCS (P-values <.05). Among occupants who were expected to fully recover but who report a significant drop in PCS at 12 months, spinal fractures without cord involvement account for 5 of the 10 most common AIS 2+ injuries. FCI was associated with 12-month outcomes but may not adequately describe the recovery from some head, spine, and lower extremity injuries. Some occupants who were expected to recover still report functional loss 12 months post-injury.

Influence of pavement condition on horizontal curve safety.

PubMed

Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Banerjee, Ambarish; Prozzi, Jorge A

2013-03-01

Crash statistics suggest that horizontal curves are the most vulnerable sites for crash occurrence. These crashes are often severe and many involve at least some level of injury due to the nature of the collisions. Ensuring the desired pavement surface condition is one potentially effective strategy to reduce the occurrence of severe accidents on horizontal curves. This study sought to develop crash injury severity models by integrating crash and pavement surface condition databases. It focuses on developing a causal relationship between pavement condition indices and severity level of crashes occurring on two-lane horizontal curves in Texas. In addition, it examines the suitability of the existing Skid Index for safety maintenance of two-lane curves. Significant correlation is evident between pavement condition and crash injury severity on two-lane undivided horizontal curves in Texas. Probability of a crash becoming fatal is appreciably sensitive to certain pavement indices. Data suggested that road facilities providing a smoother and more comfortable ride are vulnerable to severe crashes on horizontal curves. In addition, the study found that longitudinal skid measurement barely correlates with injury severity of crashes occurring on curved portions. The study recommends exploring the option of incorporating lateral friction measurement into Pavement Management System (PMS) databases specifically at curved road segments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Highlights of 2009 motor vehicle crashes : summary of statistical findings

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-08-01

In 2009, 33,808 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes in the United States the lowest number of deaths since 1950 (33,186 fatalities in 1950). This was a 9.7-percent decline in the number of people killed, from 37,423 in 2008 to 33,808, ac...

A cross-comparison of different techniques for modeling macro-level cyclist crashes.

PubMed

Guo, Yanyong; Osama, Ahmed; Sayed, Tarek

2018-04-01

Despite the recognized benefits of cycling as a sustainable mode of transportation, cyclists are considered vulnerable road users and there are concerns about their safety. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the factors affecting cyclist safety. The goal of this study is to evaluate and compare different approaches of modeling macro-level cyclist safety as well as investigating factors that contribute to cyclist crashes using a comprehensive list of covariates. Data from 134 traffic analysis zones (TAZs) in the City of Vancouver were used to develop macro-level crash models (CM) incorporating variables related to actual traffic exposure, socio-economics, land use, built environment, and bike network. Four types of CMs were developed under a full Bayesian framework: Poisson lognormal model (PLN), random intercepts PLN model (RIPLN), random parameters PLN model (RPPLN), and spatial PLN model (SPLN). The SPLN model had the best goodness of fit, and the results highlighted the significant effects of spatial correlation. The models showed that the cyclist crashes were positively associated with bike and vehicle exposure measures, households, commercial area density, and signal density. On the other hand, negative associations were found between cyclist crashes and some bike network indicators such as average edge length, average zonal slope, and off-street bike links. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Crashes Using Traffic Offences. A Meta-Analysis that Examines Potential Bias between Self-Report and Archival Data

PubMed Central

af Wåhlberg, Anders; Freeman, James; Watson, Barry; Watson, Angela

2016-01-01

Background Traffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean. Significance The effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement. PMID:27128093

Impact of pavement conditions on crash severity.

PubMed

Li, Yingfeng; Liu, Chunxiao; Ding, Liang

2013-10-01

Pavement condition has been known as a key factor related to ride quality, but it is less clear how exactly pavement conditions are related to traffic crashes. The researchers used Geographic Information System (GIS) to link Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Crash Record Information System (CRIS) data and Pavement Management Information System (PMIS) data, which provided an opportunity to examine the impact of pavement conditions on traffic crashes in depth. The study analyzed the correlation between several key pavement condition ratings or scores and crash severity based on a large number of crashes in Texas between 2008 and 2009. The results in general suggested that poor pavement condition scores and ratings were associated with proportionally more severe crashes, but very poor pavement conditions were actually associated with less severe crashes. Very good pavement conditions might induce speeding behaviors and therefore could have caused more severe crashes, especially on non-freeway arterials and during favorable driving conditions. In addition, the results showed that the effects of pavement conditions on crash severity were more evident for passenger vehicles than for commercial vehicles. These results provide insights on how pavement conditions may have contributed to crashes, which may be valuable for safety improvement during pavement design and maintenance. Readers should notice that, although the study found statistically significant effects of pavement variables on crash severity, the effects were rather minor in reality as suggested by frequency analyses. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial analysis to identify high risk areas for traffic crashes resulting in death of pedestrians in Tehran

PubMed Central

Moradi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Jamshidi, Ensiyeh; Zeini, Salahdien

2016-01-01

Background: More than 20% of deaths from traffic crashes are related to pedestrians. This figure in Tehran, the capital of Iran, reaches to 40%. This study aimed to determine the high-risk areas and spatially analyze the traffic crashes, causing death to pedestrians in Tehran. Methods: Mapping was used to display the distribution of the crashes. Determining the distribution pattern of crashes and the hot spots/ low-risk areas were done, using Moran’s I index and Getis-Ord G, respectively. Results: A total of 198 crashes were studied; 92 of which, (46.4%) occurred in 2013 to 2014 and other 106 cases (63.6%) occurred in 2014 to 2015. The highest and the lowest frequency of crashes was related to January (26 cases) and June (10 cases), respectively. One hundred fifty- eight cases (79.8%) of crashes occurred in Tehran highways. Moran’s index showed that the studied traffic crashes had a cluster distribution (p<0.001). Getis- Ord General G index indicated that the distribution of hot and cold spots of the studied crashes was statistically significant (p<0.001). Conclusion: The majority of traffic crashes causing death to pedestrians occurred in highways located in the main entrances and exits of Tehran. Given the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of traffic crashes related to pedestrians, identification of these factors requires more studies with casual inferences. PMID:28210615

Effects of transverse rumble strips on safety of pedestrian crosswalks on rural roads in China.

PubMed

Liu, Pan; Huang, Jia; Wang, Wei; Xu, Chengcheng

2011-11-01

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of transverse rumble strips in reducing crashes and vehicle speeds at pedestrian crosswalks on rural roads in China. Using crash data reported at 366 sites, the research team conducted an observational before-after study using a comparison group and the Empirical Bayesian (EB) method to evaluate the effectiveness of transverse rumble strips in reducing crashes at pedestrian crosswalks. It was found that transverse rumble strips may reduce expected crash frequency at pedestrian crosswalks by 25%. The research team collected more than 15,000 speed observations at 12 sites. The speed data analysis results show that transverse rumble strips significantly reduce vehicle speeds in vicinity of pedestrian crosswalks on rural roads with posted speed limits of 60 km/h and 80 km/h. On average, the mean speed at pedestrian crosswalks declined 9.2 km/h on roads with a speed limit of 60 km/h; and 11.9 km/h on roads with a speed limit of 80 km/h. The 85th percentile speed declined 9.1 km/h on roads with a speed limit of 60 km/h; and 12.0 km/h on roads with a speed limit of 80 km/h. However, the speed reduction impacts were not found to be statistically significant for the pedestrian crosswalk on the road with a speed limit of 40 km/h. The study also looked extensively at the influence area of transverse rumble strips on rural roads. Speed profiles developed in this study show that the influence area of transverse rumble strips is generally less than 0.3 km. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relation between working conditions, aberrant driving behaviour and crash propensity among taxi drivers in China.

PubMed

Wang, Yonggang; Li, Linchao; Prato, Carlo G

2018-04-03

Although the taxi industry is playing an important role in Chinese everyday life, little attention has been posed towards occupational health issues concerning the taxi drivers' working conditions, driving behaviour and road safety. A cross-sectional survey was administered to 1021 taxi drivers from 21 companies in four Chinese cities and collected information about (i) sociodemographic characteristics, (ii) working conditions, (iii) frequency of daily aberrant driving behaviour, and (iv) involvement in property-damage-only (PDO) and personal injury (PI) crashes over the past two years. A hybrid bivariate model of crash involvement was specified: (i) the hybrid part concerned a latent variable model capturing unobserved traits of the taxi drivers; (ii) the bivariate part modelled jointly both types of crashes while capturing unobserved correlation between error terms. The survey answers paint a gloomy picture in terms of workload, as taxi drivers reported averages of 9.4 working hours per day and 6.7 working days per week that amount on average to about 63.0 working hours per week. Moreover, the estimates of the hybrid bivariate model reveal that increasing levels of fatigue, reckless behaviour and aggressive behaviour are positively related to a higher propensity of crash involvement. Lastly, the heavy workload is also positively correlated with the higher propensity of crashing, not only directly as a predictor of crash involvement, but also indirectly as a covariate of fatigue and aberrant driving behaviour. The findings from this study provide insights into potential strategies for preventive education and taxi industry management to improve the working conditions and hence reduce fatigue and road risk for the taxi drivers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the effects of AADT on predicting multiple-vehicle crashes at urban and suburban signalized intersections.

PubMed

Chen, Chen; Xie, Yuanchang

2016-06-01

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is often considered as a main covariate for predicting crash frequencies at urban and suburban intersections. A linear functional form is typically assumed for the Safety Performance Function (SPF) to describe the relationship between the natural logarithm of expected crash frequency and covariates derived from AADTs. Such a linearity assumption has been questioned by many researchers. This study applies Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and Piecewise Linear Negative Binomial (PLNB) regression models to fit intersection crash data. Various covariates derived from minor-and major-approach AADTs are considered. Three different dependent variables are modeled, which are total multiple-vehicle crashes, rear-end crashes, and angle crashes. The modeling results suggest that a nonlinear functional form may be more appropriate. Also, the results show that it is important to take into consideration the joint safety effects of multiple covariates. Additionally, it is found that the ratio of minor to major-approach AADT has a varying impact on intersection safety and deserves further investigations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of naturalistic driving videos of fleet services drivers to estimate driver error and potentially distracting behaviors as risk factors for rear-end versus angle crashes.

PubMed

Harland, Karisa K; Carney, Cher; McGehee, Daniel

2016-07-03

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and odds of fleet driver errors and potentially distracting behaviors just prior to rear-end versus angle crashes. Analysis of naturalistic driving videos among fleet services drivers for errors and potentially distracting behaviors occurring in the 6 s before crash impact. Categorical variables were examined using the Pearson's chi-square test, and continuous variables, such as eyes-off-road time, were compared using the Student's t-test. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of a driver error or potentially distracting behavior being present in the seconds before rear-end versus angle crashes. Of the 229 crashes analyzed, 101 (44%) were rear-end and 128 (56%) were angle crashes. Driver age, gender, and presence of passengers did not differ significantly by crash type. Over 95% of rear-end crashes involved inadequate surveillance compared to only 52% of angle crashes (P < .0001). Almost 65% of rear-end crashes involved a potentially distracting driver behavior, whereas less than 40% of angle crashes involved these behaviors (P < .01). On average, drivers spent 4.4 s with their eyes off the road while operating or manipulating their cell phone. Drivers in rear-end crashes were at 3.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.73-5.44) times adjusted higher odds of being potentially distracted than those in angle crashes. Fleet driver driving errors and potentially distracting behaviors are frequent. This analysis provides data to inform safe driving interventions for fleet services drivers. Further research is needed in effective interventions to reduce the likelihood of drivers' distracting behaviors and errors that may potentially reducing crashes.

The effects of studded tires on fatal crashes with passenger cars and the benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) in Swedish winter driving.

PubMed

Strandroth, Johan; Rizzi, Matteo; Olai, Maria; Lie, Anders; Tingvall, Claes

2012-03-01

This study set out to examine the effects of studded tires on fatal crashes on roads covered with ice or snow in Sweden and also to investigate the extra benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) during the winter months. Two different studies are presented in this paper. Both studies used an induced exposure approach. In the main study, 369 in-depth studies of fatal crashes with passenger cars were analyzed to determine whether loss-of-control (LOC) had been a major component or not. Only crashes involving cars without ESC and equipped with approved studded or non-studded winter tires were analyzed. The additional study used police-reported crashes that occurred during the winter seasons 2003-2010, involving passenger cars with and without ESC. While police records in Sweden do not include any tire information, it was assumed that most cars involved in crashes during the winter period would be equipped with studded tires. Findings in the main study showed that in 64% of the fatal crashes on roads covered with ice or snow LOC had been a major component. Furthermore, in 82% of LOC crashes, the passenger car over-steered prior to collision. Studded tires were found to have a statistically significant effect of 42% in terms of fatal crash reduction on roads covered with ice or snow, compared to non-studded winter tires. The effect on dry or wet roads in the winter was negative, although statistically non-significant. In the additional study, it was found that ESC further reduced crashes with injuries by 29%. The benefits on severe and fatal crashes were slightly greater (32%), although the lower 95% confidence limit was lower. Although studded tires were shown to reduce the risk of fatal crash involvement, compared to non-studded winter tires, the proportion of LOC and over-steering among cars with studded tires was large (59% and 49%, respectively). It was therefore concluded that studded tires do not prevent all LOC crashes, while ESC has benefits in those crashes since this technology mostly addresses over-steering. This is also supported by the fact that the share of LOC fatal crashes is considerably lower for ESC-equipped cars. This study recommends that non-ESC cars should be fitted with studded tires if they are to be driven on roads covered by ice or snow. If the proportion of studded tires is to be decreased on Swedish roads to reduce the about of hazardous particulates especially in built up areas, from a road safety point of view it is recommended that this should be done in phase with the implementation of ESC on all passenger cars. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence and crash mechanisms of aortic injury during the past decade.

PubMed

Schulman, Carl I; Carvajal, Daniel; Lopez, Peter P; Soffer, Dror; Habib, Fahim; Augenstein, Jeffrey

2007-03-01

Aortic injuries were traditionally thought to be the result of severe frontal crashes. Newer data has suggested other crash types such as nearside crashes may also be important in aortic injury. We hypothesized the implementation of recent safety measures would decrease the incidence of aortic injury associated with fatal motor vehicle crashes. The autopsy reports of all traffic fatalities for motor vehicle occupants in a large urban county for the years 1993 to 2004 were examined. The demographics, impact types, safety measures used, and the presence of any aortic injury were recorded. Trends were evaluated for significance by weighted linear regression. The incidence of aortic injury associated with fatal motor vehicle crashes has remained unchanged during the past 12 years (r = 0.057, p = 0.45). There is a trend toward decreased aortic injuries associated with frontal crashes (r = 0.26, p = 0.089) but no change in aortic injuries associated with nearside or farside crashes (r = 0.053, p = 0.47), when the crash resulted in a fatality. This is despite an increase in seat belt use and increased presence of airbags during the same time period. Despite improved safety measures designed to minimize the occurrence of aortic injuries, the incidence of blunt aortic injury in fatal motor vehicle crashes has not decreased during the past decade. Although not statistically significant, there is a trend toward decreased frontal impacts in fatal motor vehicle crashes associated with aortic injuries. The nearside crash mechanism continues to play a prominent role, and efforts at improving vehicle safety should be focused on crash mechanisms as they relate to aortic injury.

Sleep-related vehicle crashes on low speed roads.

PubMed

Filtness, A J; Armstrong, K A; Watson, A; Smith, S S

2017-02-01

Very little is known about the characteristics of sleep related (SR) crashes occurring on low speed roads compared with current understanding of the role of sleep in crashes occurring on high speed roads e.g. motorways. To address this gap, analyses were undertaken to identify the differences and similarities between (1) SR crashes occurring on roads with low (≤60km/h) and high (≥100km/h) speed limits, and (2) SR crashes and not-SR crashes occurring on roads with low speed limits. Police reports of all crashes occurring on low and high speed roads over a ten year period between 2000 and 2009 were examined for Queensland, Australia. Attending police officers identified all crash attributes, including 'fatigue/fell asleep', which indicates that the police believe the crash to have a causal factor relating to falling asleep, sleepiness due to sleep loss, time of day, or fatigue. Driver or rider involvement in crashes was classified as SR or not-SR. All crash-associated variables were compared using Chi-square tests (Cramer's V=effect size). A series of logistic regression was performed, with driver and crash characteristics as predictors of crash category. A conservative alpha level of 0.001 determined statistical significance. There were 440,855 drivers or riders involved in a crash during this time; 6923 (1.6%) were attributed as SR. SR crashes on low speed roads have similar characteristics to those on high speed roads with young (16-24y) males consistently over represented. SR crashes on low speed roads are noticeably different to not-SR crashes in the same speed zone in that male and young novice drivers are over represented and outcomes are more severe. Of all the SR crashes identified, 41% occurred on low speed roads. SR crashes are not confined to high speed roads. Low speed SR crashes warrant specific investigation because they occur in densely populated areas, exposing a greater number of people to risk and have more severe outcomes than not-SR crashes on the same low speed roads. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial analysis of alcohol-related motor vehicle crash injuries in southeastern Michigan.

PubMed

Meliker, Jaymie R; Maio, Ronald F; Zimmerman, Marc A; Kim, Hyungjin Myra; Smith, Sarah C; Wilson, Mark L

2004-11-01

Temporal, behavioral and social risk factors that affect injuries resulting from alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes have been characterized in previous research. Much less is known about spatial patterns and environmental associations of alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes. The aim of this study was to evaluate geographic patterns of alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes and to determine if locations of alcohol outlets are associated with those crashes. In addition, we sought to demonstrate the value of integrating spatial and traditional statistical techniques in the analysis of this preventable public health risk. The study design was a cross-sectional analysis of individual-level blood alcohol content, traffic report information, census block group data, and alcohol distribution outlets. Besag and Newell's spatial analysis and traditional logistic regression both indicated that areas of low population density had more alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes than expected (P < 0.05). There was no significant association between alcohol outlets and alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes using distance analyses, logistic regression, and Chi-square. Differences in environmental or behavioral factors characteristic of areas of low population density may be responsible for the higher proportion of alcohol-related crashes occurring in these areas.

What are the differences in driver injury outcomes at highway-rail grade crossings? Untangling the role of pre-crash behaviors.

PubMed

Liu, Jun; Khattak, Asad J; Richards, Stephen H; Nambisan, Shashi

2015-12-01

Crashes at highway-rail grade crossings can result in severe injuries and fatalities to vehicle occupants. Using a crash database from the Federal Railroad Administration (N=15,639 for 2004-2013), this study explores differences in safety outcomes from crashes between passive controls (Crossbucks and STOP signs) and active controls (flashing lights, gates, audible warnings and highway signals). To address missing data, an imputation model is developed, creating a complete dataset for estimation. Path analysis is used to quantify the direct and indirect associations of passive and active controls with pre-crash behaviors and crash outcomes in terms of injury severity. The framework untangles direct and indirect associations of controls by estimating two models, one for pre-crash driving behaviors (e.g., driving around active controls), and another model for injury severity. The results show that while the presence of gates is not directly associated with injury severity, the indirect effect through stopping behavior is statistically significant (95% confidence level) and substantial. Drivers are more likely to stop at gates that also have flashing lights and audible warnings, and stopping at gates is associated with lower injury severity. This indirect association lowers the chances of injury by 16%, compared with crashes at crossings without gates. Similar relationships between other controls and injury severity are explored. Generally, crashes occurring at active controls are less severe than crashes at passive controls. The results of study can be used to modify Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) to account for crash injury severity. The study contributes to enhancing the understanding of safety by incorporating pre-crash behaviors in a broader framework that quantifies correlates of crash injury severity at active and passive crossings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of hit-and-run crash occurrence and severity using real-time loop detector data and hierarchical Bayesian binary logit model with random effects.

PubMed

Xie, Meiquan; Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Zhou, Jiao; Jia, Xudong; Choi, Simon

2018-02-17

Most of the extensive research dedicated to identifying the influential factors of hit-and-run (HR) crashes has utilized typical maximum likelihood estimation binary logit models, and none have employed real-time traffic data. To fill this gap, this study focused on investigating factors contributing to HR crashes, as well as the severity levels of HR. This study analyzed 4-year crash and real-time loop detector data by employing hierarchical Bayesian models with random effects within a sequential logit structure. In addition to evaluation of the impact of random effects on model fitness and complexity, the prediction capability of the models was examined. Stepwise incremental sensitivity and specificity were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to graphically illustrate the predictive performance of the model. Among the real-time flow variables, the average occupancy and speed from the upstream detector were observed to be positively correlated with HR crash possibility. The average upstream speed and speed difference between upstream and downstream speeds were correlated with the occurrence of severe HR crashes. In addition to real-time factors, other variables found influential for HR and severe HR crashes were length of segment, adverse weather conditions, dark lighting conditions with malfunctioning street lights, driving under the influence of alcohol, width of inner shoulder, and nighttime. This study suggests the potential traffic conditions of HR and severe HR occurrence, which refer to relatively congested upstream traffic conditions with high upstream speed and significant speed deviations on long segments. The above findings suggest that traffic enforcement should be directed toward mitigating risky driving under the aforementioned traffic conditions. Moreover, enforcement agencies may employ alcohol checkpoints to counter driving under the influence (DUI) at night. With regard to engineering improvements, wider inner shoulders may be constructed to potentially reduce HR cases and street lights should be installed and maintained in working condition to make roads less prone to such crashes.

Impact of lowering the legal blood alcohol concentration limit to 0.03 on male, female and teenage drivers involved alcohol-related crashes in Japan.

PubMed

Desapriya, E; Shimizu, S; Pike, I; Subzwari, S; Scime, G

2007-09-01

In June of 2002, a revision to part of the Road Traffic Act drastically increased the penalties for drinking and driving offences in Japan. Most notably, the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for driving was lowered from 0.05 mg/ml to 0.03 mg/ml. The rationale for the new lower BAC limit was predicated on the assumption that drinking drivers will comply with the new, lower limit by reducing the amount of alcohol they consume prior to driving, thereby lowering their risk of crash involvement. This, in turn, would lead to fewer alcohol-related crashes. A key limitation of previous lower BAC evaluation research in determining the effectiveness of lower legal BAC limit policies is the assumption of population homogeneity in responding to the laws. The present analysis is unique in this perspective and focuses on the evaluation of the impact of BAC limit reduction on different segments of the population. The chief objective of this research is to quantify the extent to which lowering the legal limit of BAC has reduced male, female and teenager involvement in motor vehicle crashes in Japan since 2002. Most notably, the introduction of reduced BAC limit legislation resulted in a statistically significant decrease in the number of alcohol-impaired drivers on the road in Japan, indicating responsiveness to the legal change among adults and teenagers. In addition, this preliminary assessment appears to indicate that the implementation of 0.03 BAC laws and other associated activities are associated with statistically significant reductions in alcohol-involved motor vehicle crashes. In comparison, the rates of total crashes showed no statistically significant decline nor increase in the period following the introduction of the BAC law, indicating that the lower BAC limit only had an effect on alcohol-related crashes in Japan. The evidence suggests that the lower BAC legal limit and perceived risk of detection are the two most important factors resulting in a sustained change in drinking and driving behaviour in Japan. It is recommended that future research and resources in other countries be focused on these factors as determinants to reduced alcohol-related crashes.

Performance of basic kinematic thresholds in the identification of crash and near-crash events within naturalistic driving data.

PubMed

Perez, Miguel A; Sudweeks, Jeremy D; Sears, Edie; Antin, Jonathan; Lee, Suzanne; Hankey, Jonathan M; Dingus, Thomas A

2017-06-01

Understanding causal factors for traffic safety-critical events (e.g., crashes and near-crashes) is an important step in reducing their frequency and severity. Naturalistic driving data offers unparalleled insight into these factors, but requires identification of situations where crashes are present within large volumes of data. Sensitivity and specificity of these identification approaches are key to minimizing the resources required to validate candidate crash events. This investigation used data from the Second Strategic Highway Research Program Naturalistic Driving Study (SHRP 2 NDS) and the Canada Naturalistic Driving Study (CNDS) to develop and validate different kinematic thresholds that can be used to detect crash events. Results indicate that the sensitivity of many of these approaches can be quite low, but can be improved by selecting particular threshold levels based on detection performance. Additional improvements in these approaches are possible, and may involve leveraging combinations of different detection approaches, including advanced statistical techniques and artificial intelligence approaches, additional parameter modifications, and automation of validation processes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Traffic safety facts 1996 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic Safety Facts, 2001: Young Drivers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

This document provides statistical information on U.S. traffic accidents involving young drivers. Data tables include: (1) driver fatalities and drivers involved in fatal crashes among drivers 15 to 20 years old, 1991-2001; (2) drivers involved in fatal crashes and driver involvement rates by age group, 2001; (3) drivers 15 to 20 years old…

Young Drivers. Traffic Safety Facts, 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

This document provides statistical information on U.S. traffic accidents involving young drivers. Data tables include: (1) driver fatalities and drivers involved in fatal crashes among drivers 15 to 20 years old, 1990-2000; (2) drivers involved in fatal crashes and driver involvement rates by age group, 2000; (3) drivers 15 to 20 years old…

Traffic safety facts 2005 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2006 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2000 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2001 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 1998 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-10-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2002 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2003 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 1999 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 1994 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Driving with Intuition: A Preregistered Study about the EEG Anticipation of Simulated Random Car Accidents

PubMed Central

Duma, Gian Marco; Mento, Giovanni; Manari, Tommaso; Martinelli, Massimiliano

2017-01-01

The study of neural pre-stimulus or “anticipatory” activity opened a new window for understanding how the brain actively constructs the forthcoming reality. Usually, experimental paradigms designed to study anticipatory activity make use of stimuli. The purpose of the present study is to expand the study of neural anticipatory activity upon the temporal occurrence of dichotomic, statistically unpredictable (random) stimuli within an ecological experimental paradigm. To this purpose, we used a simplified driving simulation including two possible, randomly-presented trial types: a car crash end trial and a no car crash end trial. Event Related Potentials (ERP) were extracted -3,000 ms before stimulus onset. We identified a fronto-central negativity starting around 1,000 ms before car crash presentation. By contrast, a whole-scalp distributed positivity characterized the anticipatory activity observed before the end of the trial in the no car crash end condition. The present data are in line with the hypothesis that the brain may also anticipate dichotomic, statistically unpredictable stimuli, relaying onto different pre-stimulus ERP activity. Possible integration with car-smart-systems is also suggested. PMID:28103303

The Interaction between Speed Camera Enforcement and Speed-Related Mass Media Publicity in Victoria, Australia

PubMed Central

Cameron, M. H.; Newstead, S. V.; Diamantopoulou, K.; Oxley, P.

2003-01-01

The objective was to measure the presence of any interaction between the effect of mobile covert speed camera enforcement and the effect of intensive mass media road safety publicity with speed-related themes. During 1999, the Victoria Police varied the levels of speed camera activity substantially in four Melbourne police districts according to a systematic plan. Camera hours were increased or reduced by 50% or 100% in respective districts for a month at a time, during months when speed-related publicity was present and during months when it was absent. Monthly frequencies of casualty crashes, and their severe injury outcome, in each district during 1996–2000 were analysed to test the effects of the enforcement, publicity and their interaction. Reductions in crash frequency were associated monotonically with increasing levels of speed camera ticketing, and there was a statistically significant 41% reduction in fatal crash outcome associated with very high camera activity. High publicity awareness was associated with 12% reduction in crash frequency. The interaction between the enforcement and publicity was not statistically significant. PMID:12941230

Application of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson generalized linear model for analyzing motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Guikema, Seth D; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy

2008-05-01

This paper documents the application of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) generalized linear model (GLM) for modeling motor vehicle crashes. The COM-Poisson distribution, originally developed in 1962, has recently been re-introduced by statisticians for analyzing count data subjected to over- and under-dispersion. This innovative distribution is an extension of the Poisson distribution. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the application of the COM-Poisson GLM for analyzing motor vehicle crashes and compare the results with the traditional negative binomial (NB) model. The comparison analysis was carried out using the most common functional forms employed by transportation safety analysts, which link crashes to the entering flows at intersections or on segments. To accomplish the objectives of the study, several NB and COM-Poisson GLMs were developed and compared using two datasets. The first dataset contained crash data collected at signalized four-legged intersections in Toronto, Ont. The second dataset included data collected for rural four-lane divided and undivided highways in Texas. Several methods were used to assess the statistical fit and predictive performance of the models. The results of this study show that COM-Poisson GLMs perform as well as NB models in terms of GOF statistics and predictive performance. Given the fact the COM-Poisson distribution can also handle under-dispersed data (while the NB distribution cannot or has difficulties converging), which have sometimes been observed in crash databases, the COM-Poisson GLM offers a better alternative over the NB model for modeling motor vehicle crashes, especially given the important limitations recently documented in the safety literature about the latter type of model.

Statistical physics in foreign exchange currency and stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausloos, M.

2000-09-01

Problems in economy and finance have attracted the interest of statistical physicists all over the world. Fundamental problems pertain to the existence or not of long-, medium- or/and short-range power-law correlations in various economic systems, to the presence of financial cycles and on economic considerations, including economic policy. A method like the detrended fluctuation analysis is recalled emphasizing its value in sorting out correlation ranges, thereby leading to predictability at short horizon. The ( m, k)-Zipf method is presented for sorting out short-range correlations in the sign and amplitude of the fluctuations. A well-known financial analysis technique, the so-called moving average, is shown to raise questions to physicists about fractional Brownian motion properties. Among spectacular results, the possibility of crash predictions has been demonstrated through the log-periodicity of financial index oscillations.

An empirical Bayes safety evaluation of tram/streetcar signal and lane priority measures in Melbourne.

PubMed

Naznin, Farhana; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

2016-01-01

Streetcars/tram systems are growing worldwide, and many are given priority to increase speed and reliability performance in mixed traffic conditions. Research related to the road safety impact of tram priority is limited. This study explores the road safety impacts of tram priority measures including lane and intersection/signal priority measures. A before-after crash study was conducted using the empirical Bayes (EB) method to provide more accurate crash impact estimates by accounting for wider crash trends and regression to the mean effects. Before-after crash data for 29 intersections with tram signal priority and 23 arterials with tram lane priority in Melbourne, Australia, were analyzed to evaluate the road safety impact of tram priority. The EB before-after analysis results indicated a statistically significant adjusted crash reduction rate of 16.4% after implementation of tram priority measures. Signal priority measures were found to reduce crashes by 13.9% and lane priority by 19.4%. A disaggregate level simple before-after analysis indicated reductions in total and serious crashes as well as vehicle-, pedestrian-, and motorcycle-involved crashes. In addition, reductions in on-path crashes, pedestrian-involved crashes, and collisions among vehicles moving in the same and opposite directions and all other specific crash types were found after tram priority implementation. Results suggest that streetcar/tram priority measures result in safety benefits for all road users, including vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists. Policy implications and areas for future research are discussed.

Quantifying the safety effects of horizontal curves on two-way, two-lane rural roads.

PubMed

Gooch, Jeffrey P; Gayah, Vikash V; Donnell, Eric T

2016-07-01

The objective of this study is to quantify the safety performance of horizontal curves on two-way, two-lane rural roads relative to tangent segments. Past research is limited by small samples sizes, outdated statistical evaluation methods, and unreported standard errors. This study overcomes these drawbacks by using the propensity scores-potential outcomes framework. The impact of adjacent curves on horizontal curve safety is also explored using a cross-sectional regression model of only horizontal curves. The models estimated in the present study used eight years of crash data (2005-2012) obtained from over 10,000 miles of state-owned two-lane rural roads in Pennsylvania. These data included information on roadway geometry (e.g., horizontal curvature, lane width, and shoulder width), traffic volume, roadside hazard rating, and the presence of various low-cost safety countermeasures (e.g., centerline and shoulder rumble strips, curve and intersection warning pavement markings, and aggressive driving pavement dots). Crash prediction is performed by means of mixed effects negative binomial regression using the explanatory variables noted previously, as well as attributes of adjacent horizontal curves. The results indicate that both the presence of a horizontal curve and its degree of curvature must be considered when predicting the frequency of total crashes on horizontal curves. Both are associated with an increase in crash frequency, which is consistent with previous findings in the literature. Mixed effects negative binomial regression models for total crash frequency on horizontal curves indicate that the distance to adjacent curves is not statistically significant. However, the degree of curvature of adjacent curves in close proximity (within 0.75 miles) was found to be statistically significant and negatively correlated with crash frequency on the subject curve. This is logical, as drivers exiting a sharp curve are likely to be driving slower and with more awareness as they approach the next horizontal curve. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HEADWAY TIME AND CRASHES AMONG NOVICE TEENS AND EXPERIENCED ADULT DRIVERS IN A SIMULATED LEAD TRUCK BRAKING SCENARIO

PubMed Central

McDonald, Catherine C.; Seacrist, Thomas S.; Lee, Yi-Ching; Loeb, Helen; Kandadai, Venk; Winston, Flaura K.

2014-01-01

Summary Driving simulators can be used to evaluate driving performance under controlled, safe conditions. Teen drivers are at particular risk for motor vehicle crashes and simulated driving can provide important information on performance. We developed a new simulator protocol, the Simulated Driving Assessment (SDA), with the goal of providing a new tool for driver assessment and a common outcome measure for evaluation of training programs. As an initial effort to examine the validity of the SDA to differentiate performance according to experience, this analysis compared driving behaviors and crashes between novice teens (n=20) and experienced adults (n=17) on a high fidelity simulator for one common crash scenario, a rear-end crash. We examined headway time and crashes during a lead truck with sudden braking event in our SDA. We found that 35% of the novice teens crashed and none of the experienced adults crashed in this lead truck braking event; 50% of the teens versus 25% of the adults had a headway time <3 seconds at the time of truck braking. Among the 10 teens with <3 seconds headway time, 70% crashed. Among all participants with a headway time of 2–3 seconds, further investigation revealed descriptive differences in throttle position and brake pedal force when comparing teens who crashed, teens who did not crash and adults (none of whom crashed). Even with a relatively small sample, we found statistically significant differences in headway time for adults and teens, providing preliminary construct validation for our new SDA. PMID:25197724

Increased inequality in mortality from road crashes among Arabs and Jews in Israel.

PubMed

Magid, Avi; Leibovitch-Zur, Shalhevet; Baron-Epel, Orna

2015-01-01

Previous studies in several countries have shown that the economically disadvantaged seem to have a greater risk of being involved in a car crash. The aim of the present study was to compare rates and trends in mortality and injury from road crashes by age among the Arab and Jewish populations in Israel. Data on road crashes with casualties (2003-2011) from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics were analyzed. Age-adjusted road crash injury rates and mortality rates for 2003 to 2011 were calculated and time trends for each age group and population group are presented. Time trend significance was evaluated by linear regression models. Arabs in Israel are at increased risk of injury and mortality from road crashes compared to Jews. Road crash injury rates have significantly decreased in both populations over the last decade, although the rates have been persistently higher among Arabs. Road crash mortality rates have also decreased significantly in the Jewish population but not in the Arab population. This implies an increase in the disparity in mortality between Jews and Arabs. The most prominent differences in road crash injury and mortality rates between Arabs and Jews can be observed in young adults and young children. The reduction in road crashes in the last decade is a positive achievement. However, the reductions are not equal among Arabs and Jews in Israel. Therefore, an increase in the disparities in mortality from road crashes is apparent. Public health efforts need to focus specifically on decreasing road crashes in the Arab community.

Geographic Region, Weather, Pilot Age and Air Carrier Crashes: a Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Li, Guohua; Pressley, Joyce C.; Qiang, Yandong; Grabowski, Jurek G.; Baker, Susan P.; Rebok, George W.

2009-01-01

Background Information about risk factors of aviation crashes is crucial for developing effective intervention programs. Previous studies assessing factors associated with crash risk were conducted primarily in general aviation, air taxis and commuter air carriers. Methods A matched case-control design was used to examine the associations of geographic region, basic weather condition, and pilot age with the risk of air carrier (14 CFR Part 121) crash involvement. Cases (n=373) were air carrier crashes involving aircraft made by Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, and Airbus, recorded in the National Transportation Safety Board’s aviation crash database during 1983 through 2002, and controls (n=746) were air carrier incidents involving aircraft of the same three makes selected at random from the Federal Aviation Administration’s aviation incident database. Each case was matched with two controls on the calendar year when the index crash occurred. Conditional logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results With adjustment for basic weather condition, pilot age, and total flight time, the risk of air carrier crashes in Alaska was more than three times the risk for other regions [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35 – 7.49]. Instrument meteorological conditions were associated with an increased risk for air carrier crashes involving pilot error (adjusted OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.15 – 4.44) and a decreased risk for air carrier crashes without pilot error (adjusted OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.40 – 0.87). Neither pilot age nor total flight time was significantly associated with the risk of air carrier crashes. Conclusions The excess risk of air carrier crashes in Alaska and the effect of adverse weather on pilot-error crashes underscore the importance of environmental hazards in flight safety. PMID:19378910

Geographic region, weather, pilot age, and air carrier crashes: a case-control study.

PubMed

Li, Guohua; Pressley, Joyce C; Qiang, Yandong; Grabowski, Jurek G; Baker, Susan P; Rebok, George W

2009-04-01

Information about risk factors of aviation crashes is crucial for developing effective intervention programs. Previous studies assessing factors associated with crash risk were conducted primarily in general aviation, air taxis, and commuter air carriers. A matched case-control design was used to examine the associations of geographic region, basic weather condition, and pilot age with the risk of air carrier (14 CFR Part 121) crash involvement. Cases (N = 373) were air carrier crashes involving aircraft made by Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, and Airbus recorded in the National Transportation Safety Board's aviation crash database during 1983 through 2002, and controls (N = 746) were air carrier incidents involving aircraft of the same three makes selected at random from the Federal Aviation Administration's aviation incident database. Each case was matched with two controls on the calendar year when the index crash occurred. Conditional logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. With adjustment for basic weather condition, pilot age, and total flight time, the risk of air carrier crashes in Alaska was more than three times the risk for other regions ladjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35-7.49]. Instrument meteorological conditions were associated with an increased risk for air carrier crashes involving pilot error (adjusted OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.15-4.44) and a decreased risk for air carrier crashes without pilot error (adjusted OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.37-0.96). Neither pilot age nor total flight time were significantly associated with the risk of air carrier crashes. The excess risk of air carrier crashes in Alaska and the effect of adverse weather on pilot-error crashes underscore the importance of environmental hazards in flight safety.

Analysis of the frequency and severity of rear-end crashes in work zones.

PubMed

Qi, Yi; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Teng, Hualiang; Baker, Robert

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify the factors that influence the frequency and severity of rear-end crashes in work zones because rear-end crashes represent a significant proportion of crashes that occur in work zones. Truncated count data models were developed to identify influencing factors on the frequency of read-end crashes in work zones and ordered probit models were developed to evaluate influencing factors on the severity of rear-end crashes in work zones. Most of the variables identified in this study for these 2 models were significant at the 95 percent level. The statistics for models indicate that the 2 developed models are appropriate compared to alternative models. Major findings related to the frequency of rear-end crashes include the following: (1) work zones for capacity and pavement improvements have the highest frequency compared to other types of work zones; (2) work zones controlled by flaggers are associated with more rear-end crashes compared to those controlled by arrow boards; and (3) work zones with alternating one-way traffic tended to have more rear-end crashes compared to those with lane shifts. Major findings related to the severity of the rear-end crashes include the following: (1) rear-end crashes associated with alcohol, night, pedestrians, and roadway defects are more severe, and those associated with careless backing, stalled vehicles, slippery roadways, and misunderstanding flagging signals are less severe; (2) truck involvement and a large number of vehicles in a crash are both associated with increased severity, and (3) rear-end crashes that happened in work zones for bridge, capacity, and pavement are likely to be more severe than others.

Backing collisions: a study of drivers' eye and backing behaviour using combined rear-view camera and sensor systems.

PubMed

Hurwitz, David S; Pradhan, Anuj; Fisher, Donald L; Knodler, Michael A; Muttart, Jeffrey W; Menon, Rajiv; Meissner, Uwe

2010-04-01

Backing crash injures can be severe; approximately 200 of the 2,500 reported injuries of this type per year to children under the age of 15 years result in death. Technology for assisting drivers when backing has limited success in preventing backing crashes. Two questions are addressed: Why is the reduction in backing crashes moderate when rear-view cameras are deployed? Could rear-view cameras augment sensor systems? 46 drivers (36 experimental, 10 control) completed 16 parking trials over 2 days (eight trials per day). Experimental participants were provided with a sensor camera system, controls were not. Three crash scenarios were introduced. Parking facility at UMass Amherst, USA. 46 drivers (33 men, 13 women) average age 29 years, who were Massachusetts residents licensed within the USA for an average of 9.3 years. Interventions Vehicles equipped with a rear-view camera and sensor system-based parking aid. Subject's eye fixations while driving and researcher's observation of collision with objects during backing. Only 20% of drivers looked at the rear-view camera before backing, and 88% of those did not crash. Of those who did not look at the rear-view camera before backing, 46% looked after the sensor warned the driver. This study indicates that drivers not only attend to an audible warning, but will look at a rear-view camera if available. Evidence suggests that when used appropriately, rear-view cameras can mitigate the occurrence of backing crashes, particularly when paired with an appropriate sensor system.

Backing collisions: a study of drivers’ eye and backing behaviour using combined rear-view camera and sensor systems

PubMed Central

Hurwitz, David S; Pradhan, Anuj; Fisher, Donald L; Knodler, Michael A; Muttart, Jeffrey W; Menon, Rajiv; Meissner, Uwe

2012-01-01

Context Backing crash injures can be severe; approximately 200 of the 2,500 reported injuries of this type per year to children under the age of 15 years result in death. Technology for assisting drivers when backing has limited success in preventing backing crashes. Objectives Two questions are addressed: Why is the reduction in backing crashes moderate when rear-view cameras are deployed? Could rear-view cameras augment sensor systems? Design 46 drivers (36 experimental, 10 control) completed 16 parking trials over 2 days (eight trials per day). Experimental participants were provided with a sensor camera system, controls were not. Three crash scenarios were introduced. Setting Parking facility at UMass Amherst, USA. Subjects 46 drivers (33 men, 13 women) average age 29 years, who were Massachusetts residents licensed within the USA for an average of 9.3 years. Interventions Vehicles equipped with a rear-view camera and sensor system-based parking aid. Main Outcome Measures Subject’s eye fixations while driving and researcher’s observation of collision with objects during backing. Results Only 20% of drivers looked at the rear-view camera before backing, and 88% of those did not crash. Of those who did not look at the rear-view camera before backing, 46% looked after the sensor warned the driver. Conclusions This study indicates that drivers not only attend to an audible warning, but will look at a rear-view camera if available. Evidence suggests that when used appropriately, rear-view cameras can mitigate the occurrence of backing crashes, particularly when paired with an appropriate sensor system. PMID:20363812

Evaluation of the safety performance of highway alignments based on fault tree analysis and safety boundaries.

PubMed

Chen, Yikai; Wang, Kai; Xu, Chengcheng; Shi, Qin; He, Jie; Li, Peiqing; Shi, Ting

2018-05-19

To overcome the limitations of previous highway alignment safety evaluation methods, this article presents a highway alignment safety evaluation method based on fault tree analysis (FTA) and the characteristics of vehicle safety boundaries, within the framework of dynamic modeling of the driver-vehicle-road system. Approaches for categorizing the vehicle failure modes while driving on highways and the corresponding safety boundaries were comprehensively investigated based on vehicle system dynamics theory. Then, an overall crash probability model was formulated based on FTA considering the risks of 3 failure modes: losing steering capability, losing track-holding capability, and rear-end collision. The proposed method was implemented on a highway segment between Bengbu and Nanjing in China. A driver-vehicle-road multibody dynamics model was developed based on the 3D alignments of the Bengbu to Nanjing section of Ning-Luo expressway using Carsim, and the dynamics indices, such as sideslip angle and, yaw rate were obtained. Then, the average crash probability of each road section was calculated with a fixed-length method. Finally, the average crash probability was validated against the crash frequency per kilometer to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. The results of the regression analysis and correlation analysis indicated good consistency between the results of the safety evaluation and the crash data and that it outperformed the safety evaluation methods used in previous studies. The proposed method has the potential to be used in practical engineering applications to identify crash-prone locations and alignment deficiencies on highways in the planning and design phases, as well as those in service.

Crash Lethality Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-06

Statistical Data ........................................................................................... 45 31 Parametric Model for Rotor Wing Debris...Area .............................................................. 46 32 Skid Distance Statistical Data...results. The curve that related the BC value to the probability of skull fracture resulted in a tight confidence interval and a two tailed statistical p

Identifying critical road geometry parameters affecting crash rate and crash type.

PubMed

Othman, Sarbaz; Thomson, Robert; Lannér, Gunnar

2009-10-01

The objective of this traffic safety investigation was to find critical road parameters affecting crash rate (CR). The study was based on crash and road maintenance data from Western Sweden. More than 3000 crashes, reported from 2000 to 2005 on median-separated roads, were collected and combined with road geometric and surface data. The statistical analysis showed variations in CR when road elements changed confirming that road characteristics affect CR. The findings indicated that large radii right-turn curves were more dangerous than left curves, in particular, during lane changing manoeuvres. However sharper curves are more dangerous in both left and right curves. Moreover, motorway carriageways with no or limited shoulders have the highest CR when compared to other carriageway widths, while one lane carriageway sections on 2+1 roads were the safest. Road surface results showed that both wheel rut depth and road roughness have negative impacts on traffic safety.

Identifying Critical Road Geometry Parameters Affecting Crash Rate and Crash Type

PubMed Central

Othman, Sarbaz; Thomson, Robert; Lannér, Gunnar

2009-01-01

The objective of this traffic safety investigation was to find critical road parameters affecting crash rate (CR). The study was based on crash and road maintenance data from Western Sweden. More than 3000 crashes, reported from 2000 to 2005 on median-separated roads, were collected and combined with road geometric and surface data. The statistical analysis showed variations in CR when road elements changed confirming that road characteristics affect CR. The findings indicated that large radii right-turn curves were more dangerous than left curves, in particular, during lane changing manoeuvres. However sharper curves are more dangerous in both left and right curves. Moreover, motorway carriageways with no or limited shoulders have the highest CR when compared to other carriageway widths, while one lane carriageway sections on 2+1 roads were the safest. Road surface results showed that both wheel rut depth and road roughness have negative impacts on traffic safety. PMID:20184841

Spatial panel analyses of alcohol outlets and motor vehicle crashes in California: 1999–2008

PubMed Central

Ponicki, William R.; Gruenewald, Paul J.; Remer, Lillian G.

2014-01-01

Although past research has linked alcohol outlet density to higher rates of drinking and many related social problems, there is conflicting evidence of density’s association with traffic crashes. An abundance of local alcohol outlets simultaneously encourages drinking and reduces driving distances required to obtain alcohol, leading to an indeterminate expected impact on alcohol-involved crash risk. This study separately investigates the effects of outlet density on (1) the risk of injury crashes relative to population and (2) the likelihood that any given crash is alcohol-involved, as indicated by police reports and single-vehicle nighttime status of crashes. Alcohol outlet density effects are estimated using Bayesian misalignment Poisson analyses of all California ZIP codes over the years 1999–2008. These misalignment models allow panel analysis of ZIP-code data despite frequent redefinition of postal-code boundaries, while also controlling for overdispersion and the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Because models control for overall retail density, estimated alcohol-outlet associations represent the extra effect of retail establishments selling alcohol. The results indicate a number of statistically well-supported associations between retail density and crash behavior, but the implied effects on crash risks are relatively small. Alcohol-serving restaurants have a greater impact on overall crash risks than on the likelihood that those crashes involve alcohol, whereas bars primarily affect the odds that crashes are alcohol-involved. Off-premise outlet density is negatively associated with risks of both crashes and alcohol involvement, while the presence of a tribal casino in a ZIP code is linked to higher odds of police-reported drinking involvement. Alcohol outlets in a given area are found to influence crash risks both locally and in adjacent ZIP codes, and significant spatial autocorrelation also suggests important relationships across geographical units. These results suggest that each type of alcohol outlet can have differing impacts on risks of crashing as well as the alcohol involvement of those crashes. PMID:23537623

The Asian Correction Can Be Quantitatively Forecasted Using a Statistical Model of Fusion-Fission Processes.

PubMed

Teh, Boon Kin; Cheong, Siew Ann

2016-01-01

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 wiped out US$37 trillions across global financial markets, this value is equivalent to the combined GDPs of the United States and the European Union in 2014. The defining moment of this crisis was the failure of Lehman Brothers, which precipitated the October 2008 crash and the Asian Correction (March 2009). Had the Federal Reserve seen these crashes coming, they might have bailed out Lehman Brothers, and prevented the crashes altogether. In this paper, we show that some of these market crashes (like the Asian Correction) can be predicted, if we assume that a large number of adaptive traders employing competing trading strategies. As the number of adherents for some strategies grow, others decline in the constantly changing strategy space. When a strategy group grows into a giant component, trader actions become increasingly correlated and this is reflected in the stock price. The fragmentation of this giant component will leads to a market crash. In this paper, we also derived the mean-field market crash forecast equation based on a model of fusions and fissions in the trading strategy space. By fitting the continuous returns of 20 stocks traded in Singapore Exchange to the market crash forecast equation, we obtain crash predictions ranging from end October 2008 to mid-February 2009, with early warning four to six months prior to the crashes.

The Asian Correction Can Be Quantitatively Forecasted Using a Statistical Model of Fusion-Fission Processes

PubMed Central

Teh, Boon Kin; Cheong, Siew Ann

2016-01-01

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 wiped out US$37 trillions across global financial markets, this value is equivalent to the combined GDPs of the United States and the European Union in 2014. The defining moment of this crisis was the failure of Lehman Brothers, which precipitated the October 2008 crash and the Asian Correction (March 2009). Had the Federal Reserve seen these crashes coming, they might have bailed out Lehman Brothers, and prevented the crashes altogether. In this paper, we show that some of these market crashes (like the Asian Correction) can be predicted, if we assume that a large number of adaptive traders employing competing trading strategies. As the number of adherents for some strategies grow, others decline in the constantly changing strategy space. When a strategy group grows into a giant component, trader actions become increasingly correlated and this is reflected in the stock price. The fragmentation of this giant component will leads to a market crash. In this paper, we also derived the mean-field market crash forecast equation based on a model of fusions and fissions in the trading strategy space. By fitting the continuous returns of 20 stocks traded in Singapore Exchange to the market crash forecast equation, we obtain crash predictions ranging from end October 2008 to mid-February 2009, with early warning four to six months prior to the crashes. PMID:27706198

An Evaluation of the Euroncap Crash Test Safety Ratings in the Real World

PubMed Central

Segui-Gomez, Maria; Lopez-Valdes, Francisco J.; Frampton, Richard

2007-01-01

We investigated whether the rating obtained in the EuroNCAP test procedures correlates with injury protection to vehicle occupants in real crashes using data in the UK Cooperative Crash Injury Study (CCIS) database from 1996 to 2005. Multivariate Poisson regression models were developed, using the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score by body region as the dependent variable and the EuroNCAP score for that particular body region, seat belt use, mass ratio and Equivalent Test Speed (ETS) as independent variables. Our models identified statistically significant relationships between injury severity and safety belt use, mass ratio and ETS. We could not identify any statistically significant relationships between the EuroNCAP body region scores and real injury outcome except for the protection to pelvis-femur-knee in frontal impacts where scoring “green” is significantly better than scoring “yellow” or “red”.

Crash Fatality Rates After Recreational Marijuana Legalization in Washington and Colorado.

PubMed

Aydelotte, Jayson D; Brown, Lawrence H; Luftman, Kevin M; Mardock, Alexandra L; Teixeira, Pedro G R; Coopwood, Ben; Brown, Carlos V R

2017-08-01

To evaluate motor vehicle crash fatality rates in the first 2 states with recreational marijuana legalization and compare them with motor vehicle crash fatality rates in similar states without recreational marijuana legalization. We used the US Fatality Analysis Reporting System to determine the annual numbers of motor vehicle crash fatalities between 2009 and 2015 in Washington, Colorado, and 8 control states. We compared year-over-year changes in motor vehicle crash fatality rates (per billion vehicle miles traveled) before and after recreational marijuana legalization with a difference-in-differences approach that controlled for underlying time trends and state-specific population, economic, and traffic characteristics. Pre-recreational marijuana legalization annual changes in motor vehicle crash fatality rates for Washington and Colorado were similar to those for the control states. Post-recreational marijuana legalization changes in motor vehicle crash fatality rates for Washington and Colorado also did not significantly differ from those for the control states (adjusted difference-in-differences coefficient = +0.2 fatalities/billion vehicle miles traveled; 95% confidence interval = -0.4, +0.9). Three years after recreational marijuana legalization, changes in motor vehicle crash fatality rates for Washington and Colorado were not statistically different from those in similar states without recreational marijuana legalization. Future studies over a longer time remain warranted.

An examination of some safety issues among commercial motorcyclists in Nigeria: a case study.

PubMed

Arosanyin, Godwin Tunde; Olowosulu, Adekunle Taiwo; Oyeyemi, Gafar Matanmi

2013-01-01

The reduction of road crashes and injuries among motorcyclists in Nigeria requires a system inquiry into some safety issues at pre-crash, crash and post-crash stages to guide action plans. This paper examines safety issues such as age restriction, motorcycle engine capacity, highway code awareness, licence holding, helmet usage, crash involvement, rescue and payment for treatment among commercial motorcyclists. The primary data derived from a structured questionnaire administered to 334 commercial motorcyclists in Samaru, Zaria were analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression technique. There was total compliance with age restriction and motorcycle engine capacity. About 41.8% of the operators were not aware of the existence of the highway code. The odds of licence holding increased with highway code awareness, education with above senior secondary as the reference category and earnings. The odds of crash involvement decreased with highway code awareness, earnings and mode of operation. About 84% of the motorcyclists did not use crash helmet, in spite of being aware of the benefit, and 65.4% of motorcycle crashes was found to be with other road users. The promotion of safety among motorcyclists therefore requires strict traffic law enforcement and modification of road design to segregate traffic and protect pedestrians.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on crash occurrence: Preliminary results of the case of rare events.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios; Yannis, George; Kopelias, Pantelis; Papadimitriou, Fanis

2018-01-04

Considerable efforts have been made from researchers and policy makers in order to explain road crash occurrence and improve road safety performance of highways. However, there are cases when crashes are so few that they could be considered as rare events. In such cases, the binary dependent variable is characterized by dozens to thousands of times fewer events (crashes) than non-events (non-crashes). This paper attempts to add to the current knowledge by investigating crash likelihood by utilizing real-time traffic data and by proposing a framework driven by appropriate statistical models (Bias Correction and Firth method) in order to overcome the problems that arise when the number of crashes is very low. Under this approach instead of using traditional logistic regression methods, crashes are considered as rare events In order to demonstrate this approach, traffic data were collected from three random loop detectors in the Attica Tollway ("Attiki Odos") located in Greater Athens Area in Greece for the 2008-2011 period. The traffic dataset consists of hourly aggregated traffic data such as flow, occupancy, mean time speed and percentage of trucks in traffic. This study demonstrates the application and findings of our approach and revealed a negative relationship between crash occurrence and speed in crash locations. The method and findings of the study attempt to provide insights on the mechanism of crash occurrence and also to overcome data considerations for the first time in safety evaluation of motorways. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Repeatability study of replicate crash tests: A signal analysis approach.

PubMed

Seppi, Jeremy; Toczyski, Jacek; Crandall, Jeff R; Kerrigan, Jason

2017-10-03

To provide an objective basis on which to evaluate the repeatability of vehicle crash test methods, a recently developed signal analysis method was used to evaluate correlation of sensor time history data between replicate vehicle crash tests. The goal of this study was to evaluate the repeatability of rollover crash tests performed with the Dynamic Rollover Test System (DRoTS) relative to other vehicle crash test methods. Test data from DRoTS tests, deceleration rollover sled (DRS) tests, frontal crash tests, frontal offset crash tests, small overlap crash tests, small overlap impact (SOI) crash tests, and oblique crash tests were obtained from the literature and publicly available databases (the NHTSA vehicle database and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety TechData) to examine crash test repeatability. Signal analysis of the DRoTS tests showed that force and deformation time histories had good to excellent repeatability, whereas vehicle kinematics showed only fair repeatability due to the vehicle mounting method for one pair of tests and slightly dissimilar mass properties (2.2%) in a second pair of tests. Relative to the DRS, the DRoTS tests showed very similar or higher levels of repeatability in nearly all vehicle kinematic data signals with the exception of global X' (road direction of travel) velocity and displacement due to the functionality of the DRoTS fixture. Based on the average overall scoring metric of the dominant acceleration, DRoTS was found to be as repeatable as all other crash tests analyzed. Vertical force measures showed good repeatability and were on par with frontal crash barrier forces. Dynamic deformation measures showed good to excellent repeatability as opposed to poor repeatability seen in SOI and oblique deformation measures. Using the signal analysis method as outlined in this article, the DRoTS was shown to have the same or better repeatability of crash test methods used in government regulatory and consumer evaluation test protocols.

Wrong-way driving crashes on French divided roads.

PubMed

Kemel, Emmanuel

2015-02-01

The objective of divided roads is to increase users' safety by posting unidirectional traffic flows. It happens however that drivers proceed in the wrong direction, endangering themselves as well as other users. The crashes caused by wrong-way drivers are generally spotlighted by the media and call for public intervention. This paper proposes a characterization of wrong-way driving crashes occurring on French divided road on the 2008-2012 period. The objective is to identify the factors that delineate between wrong-way driving crashes and other crashes. Building on the national injury road crash database, 266 crashes involving a wrong-way driver were identified. Their characteristics (related to timing, location, vehicle and driver) are compared to those of the 22,120 other crashes that occurred on the same roads over the same period. The comparison relies on descriptive statistics, completed by a logistic regression. Wrong-way driving crashes are rare but severe. They are more likely to occur during night hours and on non-freeway roads than other crashes. Wrong-way drivers are older, more likely to be intoxicated, to be locals, to drive older vehicles, mainly passenger cars without passengers, than other drivers. The differences observed across networks can help prioritizing public intervention. Most of the identified WW-driving factors deal with cognitive impairment. Therefore, the specific countermeasures such as alternative road signs should be designed for and tested on cognitively impaired drivers. Nevertheless, WW-driving factors are also risk factors for other types of crashes (e.g. elderly driving, drunk driving and age of the vehicle). This suggests that, instead of (or in addition to) developing WW-driving specific countermeasures, managing these risk factors would help reducing a larger number of crashes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Origin of crashes in three US stock markets: shocks and bubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansen, Anders

2004-07-01

This paper presents an exclusive classification of the largest crashes in Dow Jones industrial average, SP500 and NASDAQ in the past century. Crashes are objectively defined as the top-rank filtered drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum disregarding noise fluctuations), where the size of the filter is determined by the historical volatility of the index. It is shown that all crashes can be linked to either an external shock, e.g., outbreak of war, or a log-periodic power law (LPPL) bubble with an empirically well-defined complex value of the exponent. Conversely, with one sole exception all previously identified LPPL bubbles are followed by a top-rank drawdown. As a consequence, the analysis presented suggest a one-to-one correspondence between market crashes defined as top-rank filtered drawdowns on one hand and surprising news and LPPL bubbles on the other. We attribute this correspondence to the efficient market hypothesis effective on two quite different time scales depending on whether the market instability the crash represent is internally or externally generated.

Does license disqualification reduce reoffence rates?

PubMed

Siskind, V

1996-07-01

A review was conducted of the subsequent driving records of over 25,000 Queensland drivers cited for a drink driving offence in 1988 who received at least one subsequent license restriction. The interval of follow-up was at least 3 years, average 3.9 years. Periods of driving disqualification were identified and, for each driver, the total amount of time during restricted and unrestricted driving was computed; the numbers of events, i.e. crashes and traffic offences, recorded during these periods were counted. Rates under disqualification and during legal driving, expressed per thousand person-years were derived by dividing total numbers of events by total time during which they could occur. Three categories of traffic violation were considered: drink driving offences; traffic offences unassociated with drink driving, and any offence involving driving. Since only 12% of the offenders and 9% of the reoffenders were female, detailed analyses are presented for men only; results for women were little different. Statistical inference assumed a Poisson model for crashes and a negative binomial model for offences, and analyses were performed after stratification by number of drink driving offences. Calculated rates during periods of disqualification were about one third of the rates during legal driving for crashes and all three categories of traffic offence, ranging from 25% in the case of unassociated offences to 35% for any driving offence. There were differences, some statistically significant, by age and between metropolitan, provincial city and rural regions of the State, but most were relatively minor. Drivers were apprehended more frequently earlier in the disqualification period than later. It is impossible from these data to distinguish between reduced driving levels and more cautious traffic behaviour during periods of license restriction. It is nonetheless clear that while such penalties are in operation, they substantially reduce the negative impact of convicted drink-drivers on the road. Unfortunately the data do not permit one to say whether or for how long the effect persists.

A crash-prediction model for multilane roads.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; Guida, Maurizio; Parisi, Alessandra

2007-07-01

Considerable research has been carried out in recent years to establish relationships between crashes and traffic flow, geometric infrastructure characteristics and environmental factors for two-lane rural roads. Crash-prediction models focused on multilane rural roads, however, have rarely been investigated. In addition, most research has paid but little attention to the safety effects of variables such as stopping sight distance and pavement surface characteristics. Moreover, the statistical approaches have generally included Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models, whilst Negative Multinomial regression model has been used to a lesser extent. Finally, as far as the authors are aware, prediction models involving all the above-mentioned factors have still not been developed in Italy for multilane roads, such as motorways. Thus, in this paper crash-prediction models for a four-lane median-divided Italian motorway were set up on the basis of accident data observed during a 5-year monitoring period extending between 1999 and 2003. The Poisson, Negative Binomial and Negative Multinomial regression models, applied separately to tangents and curves, were used to model the frequency of accident occurrence. Model parameters were estimated by the Maximum Likelihood Method, and the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test was applied to detect the significant variables to be included in the model equation. Goodness-of-fit was measured by means of both the explained fraction of total variation and the explained fraction of systematic variation. The Cumulative Residuals Method was also used to test the adequacy of a regression model throughout the range of each variable. The candidate set of explanatory variables was: length (L), curvature (1/R), annual average daily traffic (AADT), sight distance (SD), side friction coefficient (SFC), longitudinal slope (LS) and the presence of a junction (J). Separate prediction models for total crashes and for fatal and injury crashes only were considered. For curves it is shown that significant variables are L, 1/R and AADT, whereas for tangents they are L, AADT and junctions. The effect of rain precipitation was analysed on the basis of hourly rainfall data and assumptions about drying time. It is shown that a wet pavement significantly increases the number of crashes. The models developed in this paper for Italian motorways appear to be useful for many applications such as the detection of critical factors, the estimation of accident reduction due to infrastructure and pavement improvement, and the predictions of accidents counts when comparing different design options. Thus this research may represent a point of reference for engineers in adjusting or designing multilane roads.

Scanning secondary derived crashes from disabled and abandoned vehicle incidents on uninterrupted flow highways.

PubMed

Chimba, Deo; Kutela, Boniphace

2014-09-01

Extent of secondary crashes derived from primary incidents involving abandoned and disabled vehicles are presented in this paper. Using years 2004 to 2010 incident and crash data on selected Tennessee freeways, the study identified secondary crashes that resulted from disabled and abandoned vehicle primary incidents. The relationship between time and distance gaps before the secondary crash with respect to individual incident characteristics were evaluated through descriptive statistics and linear regression. The time and distance gap analysis indicated that a large portion of secondary crashes occurred within 20 min after the primary incidents and within a distance of 0.5 miles upstream. While 76% of incidents involved shoulder, most secondary crashes were related to the closing of right lanes. Overall, 58% of the secondary crashes occurred within 30 min after the occurrence of the primary incidents. Most of the vehicles in the incidents that involved towing and caused secondary crashes were towed or removed out of the travel way within 60 min from the time of occurrence. The study found that most (95%) secondary crashes were property damage only (PDO), while 49% were rear-end crashes. The negative binomial model was used to evaluate the impact of roadway geometry and traffic factors associated with frequency of these secondary crashes. It was found that the posted speed limit, congested segments, segments with high percentages of trucks, and peak hour volumes increased the likelihood of secondary crash occurrence. Roadway segments with wider medians, shoulders, and multilanes decrease the likelihood of secondary crashes caused by abandoned and disabled vehicles as the primary incidents. Practical applications The paper recommends that wider shoulders be provided on any section of freeway to accommodate abandoned or disabled vehicles to avoid blocking of travel lane(s). Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does crash risk increase when emergency vehicles are driving with lights and sirens?

PubMed

Missikpode, Celestin; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Young, Tracy; Hamann, Cara

2018-04-01

Emergency vehicles, such as police, ambulances, and fire vehicles, need to arrive at the scene of emergencies as quickly as possible, and thus they often travel in emergency mode - using their lights and sirens and often bypassing traffic signals. We examined whether travelling in emergency mode increased crash risk among police, ambulance and fire vehicles. We conducted a quasi-induced exposure analysis using data from the Iowa Crash Database for the period of 2005 through 2013. The data are maintained by the Iowa Department of Transportation (IADOT), Office of Driver Services (ODS) and includes all investigating police officer's reports of motor vehicle crashes. The quasi-induced exposure method is an approach to calculate crash risk in the absence of exposure data using vehicles without a contributing cause (did not contribute to the crash) as a proxy for the baseline driving population. From 2005 - 2013, police vehicles were involved in 2406 crashes and ambulances and fire vehicles were involved in 528 crashes. Police vehicles were 1.8 times more likely to crash while driving in emergency mode than usual mode; this was a statistically significant increase. Ambulance and fire vehicles were not more likely to crash in emergency mode compared with usual mode. For police, other factors that contributed to crash risk included gender, age, icy/snowy roads, unpaved roads, and intersections. For ambulances and fire vehicles, other factors that contributed to crash risk included gender, age, weekends, icy/snowy roads and urban locations. Crash risk increased when police vehicles drove with lights and sirens but did not increase for ambulance and fire vehicles. Further research is necessary to develop and evaluate strategies to mitigate crash risk among police vehicles. Cultural approaches which prioritize transportation safety in conjunction with reaching the scene as quickly as possible may be warranted. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The RID2 biofidelic rear impact dummy: a pilot study using human subjects in low speed rear impact full scale crash tests.

PubMed

Croft, Arthur C; Philippens, Mathieu M G M

2007-03-01

Human subjects and the recently developed RID2 rear impact crash test dummy were exposed to a series of full scale, vehicle-to-vehicle crash tests. To evaluate the biofidelity of the RID2 anthropometric test dummy on the basis of calculated neck injury criterion (NIC) values by comparing these values to those obtained from human subjects exposed in the very same crashes. The widely used and familiar hybrid III dummy has been said to lack biofidelity in the special application of low speed rear impact crashes. Several attempts have been made to modify this dummy with only marginal success. Two completely new dummies have been developed; the BioRID and the RID2. Neither have been tested under real world crash boundary conditions in side-by-side comparisons with live human subjects. Volunteer subjects, including a 50th percentile male, a 95th percentile male, and a 50th percentile female, were placed in the driver's seat of a vehicle and subjected to a series of three low speed rear impact crashes each. The RID2 dummy, which is modeled after a 50th percentile male, was placed in the passenger seat in each case. Both subjects and dummy were fully instrumented and acceleration-time histories were recorded. From this data, velocities of the heads and torsos were determined and both were used to calculate the NIC values for both crash test subjects and the RID2. The RID2 demonstrated generally higher head accelerations and NIC values than those of the human subjects. Most of the observed variations might be explained on the basis of differing head restraint geometry, posture, and body size. The RID2 NIC values compared most favorably with those of the 50th percentile male subject. For the whole group, the correlations between RID2 and human subjects did not reach statistical significance. The small number of test subjects and crash tests limited the statistical power of this pilot study, and the correlation between the RID2 and human subject NIC values were not statistically significant. The overall qualitative performance and biofidelity of the RID2 was reasonable when compared with the male human 50th percentile subject. Its overall higher ranges of head acceleration and calculated NIC values compared to all of the human subjects were generally consistent. This condition could likely be improved by increasing the stiffness of the RID2 neck. Biofidelic validation of the RID2 will require ongoing testing using a larger number of human subjects and varying boundary conditions. The results of this pilot study, while encouraging, should be considered preliminary.

Analysis of Driver Evasive Maneuvering Prior to Intersection Crashes Using Event Data Recorders.

PubMed

Scanlon, John M; Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C

2015-01-01

Intersection crashes account for over 4,500 fatalities in the United States each year. Intersection Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (I-ADAS) are emerging vehicle-based active safety systems that have the potential to help drivers safely navigate across intersections and prevent intersection crashes and injuries. The performance of an I-ADAS is expected to be highly dependent upon driver evasive maneuvering prior to an intersection crash. Little has been published, however, on the detailed evasive kinematics followed by drivers prior to real-world intersection crashes. The objective of this study was to characterize the frequency, timing, and kinematics of driver evasive maneuvers prior to intersection crashes. Event data recorders (EDRs) downloaded from vehicles involved in intersection crashes were investigated as part of NASS-CDS years 2001 to 2013. A total of 135 EDRs with precrash vehicle speed and braking application were downloaded to investigate evasive braking. A smaller subset of 59 EDRs that collected vehicle yaw rate was additionally analyzed to investigate evasive steering. Each vehicle was assigned to one of 3 precrash movement classifiers (traveling through the intersection, completely stopped, or rolling stop) based on the vehicle's calculated acceleration and observed velocity profile. To ensure that any significant steering input observed was an attempted evasive maneuver, the analysis excluded vehicles at intersections that were turning, driving on a curved road, or performing a lane change. Braking application at the last EDR-recorded time point was assumed to indicate evasive braking. A vehicle yaw rate greater than 4° per second was assumed to indicate an evasive steering maneuver. Drivers executed crash avoidance maneuvers in four-fifths of intersection crashes. A more detailed analysis of evasive braking frequency by precrash maneuver revealed that drivers performing complete or rolling stops (61.3%) braked less often than drivers traveling through the intersection without yielding (79.0%). After accounting for uncertainty in the timing of braking and steering data, the median evasive braking time was found to be between 0.5 to 1.5 s prior to impact, and the median initial evasive steering time was found to occur between 0.5 and 0.9 s prior to impact. The median average evasive braking deceleration for all cases was found to be 0.58 g. The median of the maximum evasive vehicle yaw rates was found to be 8.2° per second. Evasive steering direction was found to be most frequently in the direction of travel of the approaching vehicle. The majority of drivers involved in intersection crashes were alert enough to perform an evasive action. Most drivers used a combination of steering and braking to avoid a crash. The average driver attempted to steer and brake at approximately the same time prior to the crash.

High risk of near-crash driving events following night-shift work

PubMed Central

Lee, Michael L.; Howard, Mark E.; Horrey, William J.; Liang, Yulan; Anderson, Clare; Shreeve, Michael S.; O’Brien, Conor S.; Czeisler, Charles A.

2016-01-01

Night-shift workers are at high risk of drowsiness-related motor vehicle crashes as a result of circadian disruption and sleep restriction. However, the impact of actual night-shift work on measures of drowsiness and driving performance while operating a real motor vehicle remains unknown. Sixteen night-shift workers completed two 2-h daytime driving sessions on a closed driving track at the Liberty Mutual Research Institute for Safety: (i) a postsleep baseline driving session after an average of 7.6 ± 2.4 h sleep the previous night with no night-shift work, and (ii) a postnight-shift driving session following night-shift work. Physiological measures of drowsiness were collected, including infrared reflectance oculography, electroencephalography, and electrooculography. Driving performance measures included lane excursions, near-crash events, and drives terminated because of failure to maintain control of the vehicle. Eleven near-crashes occurred in 6 of 16 postnight-shift drives (37.5%), and 7 of 16 postnight-shift drives (43.8%) were terminated early for safety reasons, compared with zero near-crashes or early drive terminations during 16 postsleep drives (Fishers exact: P = 0.0088 and P = 0.0034, respectively). Participants had a significantly higher rate of lane excursions, average Johns Drowsiness Scale, blink duration, and number of slow eye movements during postnight-shift drives compared with postsleep drives (3.09/min vs. 1.49/min; 1.71 vs. 0.97; 125 ms vs. 100 ms; 35.8 vs. 19.1; respectively, P < 0.05 for all). Night-shift work increases driver drowsiness, degrading driving performance and increasing the risk of near-crash drive events. With more than 9.5 million Americans working overnight or rotating shifts and one-third of United States commutes exceeding 30 min, these results have implications for traffic and occupational safety. PMID:26699470

High risk of near-crash driving events following night-shift work.

PubMed

Lee, Michael L; Howard, Mark E; Horrey, William J; Liang, Yulan; Anderson, Clare; Shreeve, Michael S; O'Brien, Conor S; Czeisler, Charles A

2016-01-05

Night-shift workers are at high risk of drowsiness-related motor vehicle crashes as a result of circadian disruption and sleep restriction. However, the impact of actual night-shift work on measures of drowsiness and driving performance while operating a real motor vehicle remains unknown. Sixteen night-shift workers completed two 2-h daytime driving sessions on a closed driving track at the Liberty Mutual Research Institute for Safety: (i) a postsleep baseline driving session after an average of 7.6 ± 2.4 h sleep the previous night with no night-shift work, and (ii) a postnight-shift driving session following night-shift work. Physiological measures of drowsiness were collected, including infrared reflectance oculography, electroencephalography, and electrooculography. Driving performance measures included lane excursions, near-crash events, and drives terminated because of failure to maintain control of the vehicle. Eleven near-crashes occurred in 6 of 16 postnight-shift drives (37.5%), and 7 of 16 postnight-shift drives (43.8%) were terminated early for safety reasons, compared with zero near-crashes or early drive terminations during 16 postsleep drives (Fishers exact: P = 0.0088 and P = 0.0034, respectively). Participants had a significantly higher rate of lane excursions, average Johns Drowsiness Scale, blink duration, and number of slow eye movements during postnight-shift drives compared with postsleep drives (3.09/min vs. 1.49/min; 1.71 vs. 0.97; 125 ms vs. 100 ms; 35.8 vs. 19.1; respectively, P < 0.05 for all). Night-shift work increases driver drowsiness, degrading driving performance and increasing the risk of near-crash drive events. With more than 9.5 million Americans working overnight or rotating shifts and one-third of United States commutes exceeding 30 min, these results have implications for traffic and occupational safety.

U.S. Civil Air Show Crashes, 1993 to 2013: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and Evaluation of a Risk Index for Aviation Crashes.

PubMed

Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Osorio, Victor B

2015-01-01

This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA's General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board's data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 20.6, P < .001], pilot error (AOR = 5.2, 95% CI = 1.8 to 14.5, P = .002), aerobatic flight (AOR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.6 to 8.2, P = .002), and off-airport location (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.5, P = .003). The area under the FIA score's ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.64 to 0.78). Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes.

Nonoccupant Fatalities Associated with Backing Crashes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-02-01

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's National Center for Statistics : and Analysis (NCSA) recently completed a study of data from the National Center : Health Statistics (NCHS) to obtain an estimate of the number of nonoccupant : fataliti...

Analysis of crash proportion by vehicle type at traffic analysis zone level: A mixed fractional split multinomial logit modeling approach with spatial effects.

PubMed

Lee, Jaeyoung; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Cai, Qing

2018-02-01

In traffic safety literature, crash frequency variables are analyzed using univariate count models or multivariate count models. In this study, we propose an alternative approach to modeling multiple crash frequency dependent variables. Instead of modeling the frequency of crashes we propose to analyze the proportion of crashes by vehicle type. A flexible mixed multinomial logit fractional split model is employed for analyzing the proportions of crashes by vehicle type at the macro-level. In this model, the proportion allocated to an alternative is probabilistically determined based on the alternative propensity as well as the propensity of all other alternatives. Thus, exogenous variables directly affect all alternatives. The approach is well suited to accommodate for large number of alternatives without a sizable increase in computational burden. The model was estimated using crash data at Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level from Florida. The modeling results clearly illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework for crash proportion analysis. Further, the Excess Predicted Proportion (EPP)-a screening performance measure analogous to Highway Safety Manual (HSM), Excess Predicted Average Crash Frequency is proposed for hot zone identification. Using EPP, a statewide screening exercise by the various vehicle types considered in our analysis was undertaken. The screening results revealed that the spatial pattern of hot zones is substantially different across the various vehicle types considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Random walker in temporally deforming higher-order potential forces observed in a financial crisis.

PubMed

Watanabe, Kota; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

2009-11-01

Basic peculiarities of market price fluctuations are known to be well described by a recently developed random-walk model in a temporally deforming quadratic potential force whose center is given by a moving average of past price traces [M. Takayasu, T. Mizuno, and H. Takayasu, Physica A 370, 91 (2006)]. By analyzing high-frequency financial time series of exceptional events, such as bubbles and crashes, we confirm the appearance of higher-order potential force in the markets. We show statistical significance of its existence by applying the information criterion. This time series analysis is expected to be applied widely for detecting a nonstationary symptom in random phenomena.

Driving experience, crashes and traffic citations of teenage beginning drivers.

PubMed

McCartt, Anne T; Shabanova, Veronika I; Leaf, William A

2003-05-01

Teenagers were surveyed by telephone every 6 months from their freshman to senior high school years (N=911). Self-reported crash involvements and citations were examined for each teenager's first year of licensure and first 3500 miles driven. Based on survival analysis, the risk of a first crash during the first month of licensure (0.053) was substantially higher than during any of the next 11 months (mean risk per month: 0.025). The likelihood of a first citation during the first month of licensure (0.023) also was higher than during any of the subsequent 11 months (mean risk per month: 0.012). Similarly, when viewed as a function of cumulative miles driven, the risk of a first crash or citation was highest during the first 500 miles driven after licensure. Fewer parental restrictions (e.g. no nighttime curfew) and a lower grade point average (GPA) were associated with a higher crash risk. Male gender, a lower GPA and living in a rural area were associated with a higher citation rate.

Views of US drivers about driving safety.

PubMed

Williams, Allan F

2003-01-01

To assess how drivers view dangers on the highway, what motivates them to drive safely, how they say they reduce their crash and injury risk, and how they rate their own driving skills. Most drivers rated their skills as better than average. The biggest motivating factor for safe driving was concern for safety of others in their vehicle, followed by negative outcomes such as being in a crash, increased insurance costs, and fines. The greatest threats to their safety were thought to be other drivers' actions that increase crash risk such as alcohol impairment or running red lights. In terms of reducing crashes and injuries, drivers tended to focus on actions they could take such as driving defensively or using seat belts. There was less recognition of the role of vehicles and vehicle features in crash or injury prevention. Knowing how drivers view themselves and others, their concerns, and their motivations and techniques for staying out of trouble on the roads provides insight into the difficulty of changing driving practices.

Sleep quality and motor vehicle crashes in adolescents.

PubMed

Pizza, Fabio; Contardi, Sara; Antognini, Alessandro Baldi; Zagoraiou, Maroussa; Borrotti, Matteo; Mostacci, Barbara; Mondini, Susanna; Cirignotta, Fabio

2010-02-15

Sleep-related complaints are common in adolescents, but their impact on the rate of motor vehicle crashes accidents is poorly known. We studied subjective sleep quality, driving habits, and self-reported car crashes in high-school adolescents. Self-administered questionnaires (with items exploring driving habits) were distributed to 339 students who had a driver's license and attended 1 of 7 high schools in Bologna, Italy. Statistical analysis were performed to describe lifestyle habits, sleep quality, sleepiness, and their relationship with the binary dependent variable (presence or absence of car crashes) to identify the factors significantly affecting the probability of car crashes in a multivariate binary logistic regression model. Nineteen percent of the sample reported bad sleep, 64% complained of daytime sleepiness, and 40% reported sleepiness while driving. Eighty students (24%), 76% of which were males, reported that they had already crashed at least once, and 15% considered sleepiness to have been the main cause of their crash. As compared with adolescents who had not had a crash, those who had at least 1 previous crash reported that they more frequently used to drive (79% vs 62%), drove at night (25% vs 9%), drove while sleepy (56% vs 35%), had bad sleep (29% vs 16%), and used stimulants such as caffeinated soft drinks (32% vs 19%), tobacco (54% vs 27%), and drugs (21% vs 7%). The logistic procedure established a significant predictive role of male sex (p < 0.0001; odds ratio = 3.3), tobacco use (p < 0.0001; odds ratio = 3.2), sleepiness while driving (p = 0.010; odds ratio = 2.1), and bad sleep (p = 0.047; odds ratio = 1.9) for the crash risk. Our results confirm the high prevalence of sleep-related complaints among adolescents and highlight their independent role on self-reported crash risk.

Pattern of non-fatal injuries in road traffic crashes in a hilly area: A study from Shimla, North India

PubMed Central

Mahajan, Narinder; Aggarwal, Meenu; Raina, Sunil; Verma, Lekh Raj; Mazta, Salig Ram; Gupta, B P

2013-01-01

Research Question: What are the various injuries in road traffic crash cases? Objectives: To study various non-fatal injuries in road traffic crash cases. Study Design: Hospital based Descriptive study. Study Population: The study population comprised of 401 consecutive cases of non- fatal injuries involved in road traffic crashes and reported at Indira Gandhi Medical College hospital, Shimla. Study Period: 1st June 2005 to 31st May 2006. Study Variables: Demographic characteristics of the victims, pattern of injuries and hospital stay of the victims. Types of crashes, time, day and month of crashes, vehicles involved in crashes, use of protective gear etc. Statistical Analysis: Percentages, Proportions. Results: 73% of the injured victims were young between 20-49yrs, male to female ratio being 5.3:1. Employees (34.7%) and occupants of transport vehicles (45.9%) constituted the maximum number of the victims. Major injuries (fractures and abd. injuries) were reported in 53.4% of the victims and fractures of lower limb were the commonest of the injuries (26.3%). Use of seat-belt was found to be alarmingly low (14.3%) amongst the four- wheeler users and its non-use was found to be significantly associated with the major injuries. Helmet was used by 36 cases (66.7%) out of total of 54 users of motorized two-wheelers at the time of crash. Human error was the most reported cause of crash (82%) and the most common mode of crash was skidding and/rolling down (55%).23.1% of the drivers were reported to have consumed alcohol at the time of crash. PMID:24404456

Evolution of the crashworthiness and aggressivity of the Spanish car fleet.

PubMed

Gómez Méndez, Alvaro; Aparicio Izquierdo, Francisco; Arenas Ramírez, Blanca

2010-11-01

This paper investigates the relationship between a passenger car's year of registration and its crashworthiness and aggressivity in real-world crashes. Crashworthiness is defined as the ability of a car to protect its own occupants, and has been evaluated in single and two-car crashes. Aggressivity is defined as the ability to protect users travelling in other vehicles, and has been evaluated only in two-car crashes. The dependent variable is defined as the proportion of injured drivers who are killed or seriously injured; following previous research, we refer to this magnitude as injury severity. A decrease in the injury severity of a driver is interpreted as an improvement in the crashworthiness of their car; similarly, a decrease in the injury severity of the opponent driver is regarded as an improvement in aggressivity. Data have been extracted from the Spanish Road Accident Database, which contains information on every accident registered by the police in which at least one person was injured. Two types of regression models have been used: logistic regression models in single-car crashes, and generalised estimating equations (GEE) models in two-car crashes. GEE allow to take account of the correlation between the injury severities of drivers involved in the same crash. The independent variables considered have been: year of registration of the subject car (crashworthiness component), year of registration of the opponent car (aggressivity component), and several factors related to road, driver and environment. Our models confirm that crashworthiness has largely improved in two-car crashes: when crashing into the average opponent car, drivers of cars registered before 1985 have a significantly higher probability of being killed or seriously injured than drivers of cars registered in 2000-2005 (odds ratio: 1.80; 95% confidence interval: 1.61; 2.01). In single-car crashes, the improvement in crashworthiness is very slight (odds ratio: 1.04; 95% confidence interval: 0.93; 1.16). On the other hand, we have also found a significant worsening in aggressivity in two-car crashes: the driver of the average car has a significantly lower probability of being killed or seriously injured when crashing into a car registered before 1985, than when crashing into a car registered in 2000-2005 (odds ratio: 0.52; 95% confidence interval: 0.45; 0.60). Our results are consistent with a large amount of previous research that has reported significant improvements in the protection of car occupants. They also add to some recent studies that have found a worsening in the aggressivity of modern cars. This trend may be reflecting the impact of differences in masses and travel speeds, as well as the influence of consumer choices. The precise reasons have to be investigated. Also, the causes have to be found for so large a discrepancy between crashworthiness in single and two-car crashes. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rage against the machine? Google's self-driving cars versus human drivers.

PubMed

Teoh, Eric R; Kidd, David G

2017-12-01

Automated driving represents both challenges and opportunities in highway safety. Google has been developing self-driving cars and testing them under employee supervision on public roads since 2009. These vehicles have been involved in several crashes, and it is of interest how this testing program compares to human drivers in terms of safety. Google car crashes were coded by type and severity based on narratives released by Google. Crash rates per million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) were computed for crashes deemed severe enough to be reportable to police. These were compared with police-reported crash rates for human drivers. Crash types also were compared. Google cars had a much lower rate of police-reportable crashes per million VMT than human drivers in Mountain View, Calif., during 2009-2015 (2.19 vs 6.06), but the difference was not statistically significant. The most common type of collision involving Google cars was when they got rear-ended by another (human-driven) vehicle. Google cars shared responsibility for only one crash. These results suggest Google self-driving cars, while a test program, are safer than conventional human-driven passenger vehicles; however, currently there is insufficient information to fully examine the extent to which disengagements affected these results. Results suggest that highly-automated vehicles can perform more safely than human drivers in certain conditions, but will continue to be involved in crashes with conventionally-driven vehicles. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Truck drivers' opinion on road safety in Tanzania--a questionnaire study.

PubMed

Kircher, Katja; Andersson, Jan

2013-01-01

Even though the traffic fatality risk (fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants) in Tanzania is quite low, the fatality rate (fatalities per 10,000 vehicles) is one of the highest in the world. With increasing vehicle density this means that the number of people dying in traffic will increase dramatically in the near future. Therefore, it is important to implement measures to increase traffic safety as soon as possible, and in order to be able to do this in an efficient way, it is important to investigate where the main problems lie. Within the European Union (EU) project ASSET-Road a questionnaire study on road safety was conducted with 250 truck drivers in Tanzania. The study was done to increase the knowledge about the situation of the Tanzanian truckers, who are the most frequent road users in the country. The drivers were interviewed in 3 different towns in southern Tanzania, and participation was voluntary. The questionnaire treated demographics, the state of the drivers' vehicles, the frequency of breakdowns, and the maintenance of the vehicles. Further questions concerned driver behavior, crash involvement, crash risk, and crash mitigation. The drivers who participated in the study were predominantly male and their average age was 36 years. Truck drivers reported driving 10.6 h without a break on average, with several drivers reporting that they had to drive 24 h without rest. Around 40 percent of the trucks did not have any seat belts installed, with a larger share of older trucks lacking belts. Most of the drivers who had seat belts reported using them, however. Almost 40 percent of the drivers reported being involved in at least one crash, and 45 percent of those drivers had experienced fatal crashes. This underlines that the crash frequency per vehicle is very high, and the results are often severe, especially when heavy vehicles are involved. When asked what the 3 most common crash causations were, driver-related causes were named frequently. Drivers were said to be reckless, and further crash causations named were drunkenness, inattention, and sleepiness. One of the most frequently mentioned crash mitigation strategies was driver education, followed by improvement of the roads and the vehicles. The results indicate that countermeasures should be implemented in an integrated fashion, taking into account aspects such as driver, vehicle, infrastructure, legislature, and other road users.

Human factors in aviation crashes involving older pilots.

PubMed

Li, Guohua; Baker, Susan P; Lamb, Margaret W; Grabowski, Jurek G; Rebok, George W

2002-02-01

Pilot errors are recognized as a contributing factor in as many as 80% of aviation crashes. Experimental studies using flight simulators indicate that due to decreased working memory capacity, older pilots are outperformed by their younger counterparts in communication tasks and flight summary scores. This study examines age-related differences in crash circumstances and pilot errors in a sample of pilots who flew commuter aircraft or air taxis and who were involved in airplane or helicopter crashes. A historical cohort of 3306 pilots who in 1987 flew commuter aircraft or air taxis and were 45-54 yr of age was constructed using the Federal Aviation Administration's airmen information system. Crash records of the study subjects for the years 1983-1997 were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) by matching name and date of birth. NTSB's investigation reports were reviewed to identify pilot errors and other contributing factors. Comparisons of crash circumstances and human factors were made between pilots aged 40-49 yr and pilots aged 50-63 yr. A total of 165 crash records were studied, with 52% of these crashes involving pilots aged 50-63 yr. Crash circumstances, such as time and location of crash, type and phase of flight, and weather conditions, were similar between the two age groups. Pilot error was a contributing factor in 73% of the crashes involving younger pilots and in 69% of the crashes involving older pilots (p = 0.50). Age-related differences in the pattern of pilot errors were statistically insignificant. Overall, 23% of pilot errors were attributable to inattentiveness, 20% to flawed decisions, 18% to mishandled aircraft kinetics, and 18% to mishandled wind/runway conditions. Neither crash circumstances nor the prevalence and patterns of pilot errors appear to change significantly as age increases from the 40s to the 50s and early 60s.

Trends in motor vehicle traffic collision statistics, 1988-1997

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-02-01

This report presents descriptive statistics about Canadian traffic collisions during the ten-year period : from 1988 to 1997, focusing specifically on casualty collisions. Casualty collisions are defined as all : reportable motor vehicle crashes resu...

Differences in passenger car and large truck involved crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections: an exploratory analysis.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Richards, Stephen H; Huang, Baoshan

2014-01-01

The influence of intersection features on safety has been examined extensively because intersections experience a relatively large proportion of motor vehicle conflicts and crashes. Although there are distinct differences between passenger cars and large trucks-size, operating characteristics, dimensions, and weight-modeling crash counts across vehicle types is rarely addressed. This paper develops and presents a multivariate regression model of crash frequencies by collision vehicle type using crash data for urban signalized intersections in Tennessee. In addition, the performance of univariate Poisson-lognormal (UVPLN), multivariate Poisson (MVP), and multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MVPLN) regression models in establishing the relationship between crashes, traffic factors, and geometric design of roadway intersections is investigated. Bayesian methods are used to estimate the unknown parameters of these models. The evaluation results suggest that the MVPLN model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in developing the relationships. Compared to the UVPLN and MVP models, the MVPLN model better identifies significant factors and predicts crash frequencies. The findings suggest that traffic volume, truck percentage, lighting condition, and intersection angle significantly affect intersection safety. Important differences in car, car-truck, and truck crash frequencies with respect to various risk factors were found to exist between models. The paper provides some new or more comprehensive observations that have not been covered in previous studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Naturalistic Assessment of Novice Teenage Crash Experience

PubMed Central

Lee, Suzanne E.; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Klauer, Sheila E.; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Dingus, Thomas A.

2011-01-01

Background Crash risk is highest during the first months after licensure. Current knowledge about teenagers’ driving exposure and the factors increasing their crash risk is based on self-reported data and crash database analyses. While these research tools are useful, new developments in naturalistic technologies have allowed researchers to examine newly-licensed teenagers’ exposure and crash risk factors in greater detail. The Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study (NTDS) described in this paper is the first study to follow a group of newly-licensed teenagers continuously for 18 months after licensure. The goals of this paper are to compare the crash and near-crash experience of drivers in the NTDS to national trends, to describe the methods and lessons learned in the NTDS, and to provide initial data on driving exposure for these drivers. Methods A data acquisition system was installed in the vehicles of 42 newly-licensed teenage drivers 16 years of age during their first 18 months of independent driving. It consisted of cameras, sensors (accelerometers, GPS, yaw, front radar, lane position, and various sensors obtained via the vehicle network), and a computer with removable hard drive. Data on the driving of participating parents was also collected when they drove the instrumented vehicle. Findings The primary findings after 18 months included the following: (1) crash and near-crash rates among teenage participants were significantly higher during the first six months of the study than the final 12 months, mirroring the national trends; (2) crash and near-crash rates were significantly higher for teenage than adult (parent) participants, also reflecting national trends; (3) teenaged driving exposure averaged between 507-710 kilometers (315-441 miles) per month over the study period, but varied substantially between participants with standard errors representing 8-14 percent of the mean; and (4) crash and near-crash types were very similar for male and female teenage drivers.. Discussion The findings are the first comparing crash and near-crash rates among novice teenage drivers with those of adults using the same vehicle over the same period of time. The finding of highly elevated crash rates of novice teenagers during the first six months of licensure are consistent with and confirm the archival crash data showing high crash risk for novice teenagers. The NTDS convenience sample of teenage drivers was similar to the U.S. teenage driver population in terms of exposure and crash experience. The dataset is expected be a valuable resource for future in-depth analyses of crash risk, exposure to risky driving conditions, and comparisons of teenage and adult driving performance in various driving situations. PMID:21545880

Mechanisms of motor vehicle crashes related to burns--an analysis of the German In depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database.

PubMed

Brand, S; Otte, D; Stübig, T; Petri, M; Ettinger, M; Mueller, C W; Krettek, C; Haasper, C; Probst, C

2013-12-01

Patients of motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) suffering burns are challenging for the rescue team and the admitting hospital. These patients often face worse outcomes than crash patients with trauma only. Our analysis of the German In-depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database researches the detailed crash mechanisms to identify potential prevention measures. We analyzed the 2011 GIDAS database comprising 14,072 MVC patients and compared individuals with (Burns) and without (NoBurns) burns. Only complete data sets were included. Patients with burns obviously resulting of air bag deployment only were not included in the Burns group. Data acquisition by an on call team of medical and technical researchers starts at the crash scene immediately after the crash and comprises technical data as well as medical information until discharge from the hospital. Statistical analysis was done by Mann-Whitney-U-test. Level of significance was p < 0.05. 14,072 MVC patients with complete data sets were included in the analysis. 99 individuals suffered burns (0.7%; group "Burns"). Demographic data and injury severity showed no statistical significant difference between the two groups of Burns and NoBurns. Injury severity was measured using the Injury Severity Score (ISS). Direct frontal impact (Burns: 48.5% vs. NoBurns: 33%; p < 0.05) and high-energy impacts as represented by delta-v (m/s) (Burns: 33.5 ± 21.4 vs. NoBurns: 25.2 ± 15.9; p < 0.05) were significantly different between groups as was mortality (Burns: 12.5% vs. NoBurns: 2.1%; p < 0.05). Type of patients' motor vehicles and type of crash opponent showed no differences. Our results show, that frontal and high-energy impacts are associated with a frequency of burns. This may serve automobile construction companies to improve the burn safety to prevent flames spreading from the motor compartment to the passenger compartment. Communities may impose speed limits in local crash hot spots. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Deaths from international terrorism compared with road crash deaths in OECD countries.

PubMed

Wilson, N; Thomson, G

2005-12-01

To estimate the relative number of deaths in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from international terrorism and road crashes. Data on deaths from international terrorism (US State Department database) were collated (1994-2003) and compared to the road injury deaths (year 2000 and 2001 data) from the OECD International Road Transport Accident Database. In the 29 OECD countries for which comparable data were available, the annual average death rate from road injury was approximately 390 times that from international terrorism. The ratio of annual road to international terrorism deaths (averaged over 10 years) was lowest for the United States at 142 times. In 2001, road crash deaths in the US were equal to those from a September 11 attack every 26 days. There is a large difference in the magnitude of these two causes of deaths from injury. Policy makers need to be aware of this when allocating resources to preventing these two avoidable causes of mortality.

Exploring motorcyclist injury severity resulting from various crash configurations at T-junctions in the United Kingdom--an application of the ordered probit models.

PubMed

Pai, Chih-Wei; Saleh, Wafaa

2007-03-01

The fact that motorcycle users tend to be more vulnerable to injuries than those using other motorized vehicles may act synergistically with the complexity of conflicting movements between vehicles and motorcycles to increase injury severity in a junction-type accident. A junction-type collision tends to be more severe than a non-junction case due to the fact that some of the injurious crashes such as angle-collision commonly occur. Existing studies have applied several statistical modeling techniques to examine influential factors on the occurrences of different crashes among motorized vehicles but surprisingly very little has empirically explored whether a particular crash type, resulting from a junction-type accident, is more injurious to motorcyclists. This article attempts to investigate whether a particular collision is more deadly to motorcyclists conditioned on crash occurrence at T-junctions in the U.K., while controlling for environment, vehicle, and demographic factors. The statistical modeling technique employed is the ordered probit models using the data extracted from the STATS19 accident injury database (1999-2004). The modeling found determinants of injury severity among motorcyclists at T-junctions in the U.K. For example, an approach-turn/head-on collision is much more injurious to motorcyclists; and, those riding in early morning (i.e., 0000-0659) are more likely to be severely injured. This study offers a guideline for future research, as well as insight into potential prevention strategies that might help moderate motorcyclist injuries.

Knowledge, attitude, and practice of Nigerian commercial motorcyclists in the use of crash helmet and other safety measures.

PubMed

Oginni, Fadekemi O; Ugboko, Vincent I; Adewole, Richard A

2007-06-01

This study was designed to evaluate the knowledge, attitude, and practice of some commercial motorcyclists in Nigeria in the use of crash helmet and other cycling safety measures. At randomly selected commercial motorcycle parks from two South Western Nigerian locations (Lagos and Ile-Ife), we obtained verbal consent from commercial motorcyclists (randomly selected) and thereafter administered structured questionnaires to consenting motorcyclists. The questionnaire sought to know the respondents' biodata (age, gender, and educational attainment inclusive), cycling background, and experience (trainer, duration of training and cycling, and history of crashes). Furthermore, risk factors and practices like alcoholism, maintenance history of the motorcycle, maximum number of pillion passengers carried, and use of crash helmet were elicited. Respondents' knowledge of available safety measures was also investigated. Data was entered into an IBM compatible computer and analyzed using the SPSS 11.0 statistical software. Statistical significance was inferred at p value<0.05. There were 224 male respondents aged 15-58 years. Their peak age was 25-29 years and mean 35.1+/-8.9 years; 8.4% had no formal education; 10.3% received formal training but the majority were either trained by self (35.5%) or an acquaintance (34.6%). Training lasted

Crash Frequency Analysis Using Hurdle Models with Random Effects Considering Short-Term Panel Data

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Ma, Xiaoxiang; Chen, Suren; Yang, Lin

2016-01-01

Random effect panel data hurdle models are established to research the daily crash frequency on a mountainous section of highway I-70 in Colorado. Road Weather Information System (RWIS) real-time traffic and weather and road surface conditions are merged into the models incorporating road characteristics. The random effect hurdle negative binomial (REHNB) model is developed to study the daily crash frequency along with three other competing models. The proposed model considers the serial correlation of observations, the unbalanced panel-data structure, and dominating zeroes. Based on several statistical tests, the REHNB model is identified as the most appropriate one among four candidate models for a typical mountainous highway. The results show that: (1) the presence of over-dispersion in the short-term crash frequency data is due to both excess zeros and unobserved heterogeneity in the crash data; and (2) the REHNB model is suitable for this type of data. Moreover, time-varying variables including weather conditions, road surface conditions and traffic conditions are found to play importation roles in crash frequency. Besides the methodological advancements, the proposed technology bears great potential for engineering applications to develop short-term crash frequency models by utilizing detailed data from field monitoring data such as RWIS, which is becoming more accessible around the world. PMID:27792209

The relationship of different socioeconomic variables and alcohol consumption with nighttime fatal traffic crashes in Spain: 1978-1993.

PubMed

González-Luque, J C; Rodríguez-Artalejo, F

2000-01-01

This paper identifies the variables associated with alcohol-related fatal traffic crashes (AFTC) in Spain. In addition, and for the first time in this country, these variables are used to describe the trend in AFTC, and to study the relationship between AFTC and alcohol consumption over the period 1976-1993. To this end, official data were obtained from the Traffic Department (Dirección General de Tráfico), the National Statistics Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística), and from international publications on trends in alcohol consumption. Nighttime fatal crashes (NFC) and male-driver single-vehicle nighttime fatal crashes (MNFC) were strongly associated with AFTC rates in Spain. A further finding was the decrease in NFC and MNFC rates during the period 1978-1993, though this decrease proved of a lower magnitude than that observed for daytime crashes. No relationship was observed between alcohol consumption at the population level and NFC or MNFC rates. The fatal crash rate, particularly the daytime rate, showed a rise with wealth level, as measured by gross domestic product and national private consumption, and an inverse relationship with the unemployment rate. The relationship between the fatal crash rate and economic variables was due, in most part, to changes in vehicle-km travelled.

U.S. Civil Air Show Crashes, 1993 to 2013

PubMed Central

Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Osorio, Victor B.

2016-01-01

This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA’s General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board’s data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 20.6, P < .001], pilot error (AOR = 5.2, 95% CI = 1.8 to 14.5, P = .002), aerobatic flight (AOR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.6 to 8.2, P = .002), and off-airport location (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.5, P = .003). The area under the FIA score’s ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.64 to 0.78). Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes. PMID:27773963

Evaluation of Vehicle-Based Crash Severity Metrics.

PubMed

Tsoi, Ada H; Gabler, Hampton C

2015-01-01

Vehicle change in velocity (delta-v) is a widely used crash severity metric used to estimate occupant injury risk. Despite its widespread use, delta-v has several limitations. Of most concern, delta-v is a vehicle-based metric which does not consider the crash pulse or the performance of occupant restraints, e.g. seatbelts and airbags. Such criticisms have prompted the search for alternative impact severity metrics based upon vehicle kinematics. The purpose of this study was to assess the ability of the occupant impact velocity (OIV), acceleration severity index (ASI), vehicle pulse index (VPI), and maximum delta-v (delta-v) to predict serious injury in real world crashes. The study was based on the analysis of event data recorders (EDRs) downloaded from the National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) 2000-2013 cases. All vehicles in the sample were GM passenger cars and light trucks involved in a frontal collision. Rollover crashes were excluded. Vehicles were restricted to single-event crashes that caused an airbag deployment. All EDR data were checked for a successful, completed recording of the event and that the crash pulse was complete. The maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS) was used to describe occupant injury outcome. Drivers were categorized into either non-seriously injured group (MAIS2-) or seriously injured group (MAIS3+), based on the severity of any injuries to the thorax, abdomen, and spine. ASI and OIV were calculated according to the Manual for Assessing Safety Hardware. VPI was calculated according to ISO/TR 12353-3, with vehicle-specific parameters determined from U.S. New Car Assessment Program crash tests. Using binary logistic regression, the cumulative probability of injury risk was determined for each metric and assessed for statistical significance, goodness-of-fit, and prediction accuracy. The dataset included 102,744 vehicles. A Wald chi-square test showed each vehicle-based crash severity metric estimate to be a significant predictor in the model (p < 0.05). For the belted drivers, both OIV and VPI were significantly better predictors of serious injury than delta-v (p < 0.05). For the unbelted drivers, there was no statistically significant difference between delta-v, OIV, VPI, and ASI. The broad findings of this study suggest it is feasible to improve injury prediction if we consider adding restraint performance to classic measures, e.g. delta-v. Applications, such as advanced automatic crash notification, should consider the use of different metrics for belted versus unbelted occupants.

NCAP test improvements with pretensioners and load limiters.

PubMed

Walz, Marie

2004-03-01

New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) test scores, measured by the United States Department of Transportation's (USDOT) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), were analyzed in order to assess the benefits of equipping safety belt systems with pretensioners and load limiters. Safety belt pretensioners retract the safety belt almost instantly in a crash to remove excess slack. They tie the occupant to the vehicle's deceleration early during the crash, reducing the peak load experienced by the occupant. Load limiters and other energy management systems allow safety belts to yield in a crash, preventing the shoulder belt from directing too much energy on the chest of the occupant. In NCAP tests, vehicles are crashed into a fixed barrier at 35 mph. During the test, instruments measure the accelerations of the head and chest, as well as the force on the legs of anthropomorphic dummies secured in the vehicle by safety belts. NCAP data from model year 1998 through 2001 cars and light trucks were examined. The combination of pretensioners and load limiters is estimated to reduce Head Injury Criterion (HIC) by 232, chest acceleration by an average of 6.6 g's, and chest deflection (displacement) by 10.6 mm, for drivers and right front passengers. The unit used to measure chest acceleration (g) is defined as a unit of force equal to the force exerted by gravity. All of these reductions are statistically significant. When looked at individually, pretensioners are more effective in reducing HIC scores for both drivers and right front passengers, as well as chest acceleration and chest deflection scores for drivers. Load limiters show greater reductions in chest acceleration and chest deflection scores for right front passengers. By contrast, in make-models for which neither load limiters nor pretensioners have been added, there is little change during 1998 to 2001 in HIC, chest acceleration, or chest deflection values in NCAP tests.

Development of a real-time crash risk prediction model incorporating the various crash mechanisms across different traffic states.

PubMed

Xu, Chengcheng; Wang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Zhang, Fangwei

2015-01-01

This study aimed to identify the traffic flow variables contributing to crash risks under different traffic states and to develop a real-time crash risk model incorporating the varying crash mechanisms across different traffic states. The crash, traffic, and geometric data were collected on the I-880N freeway in California in 2008 and 2009. This study considered 4 different traffic states in Wu's 4-phase traffic theory. They are free fluid traffic, bunched fluid traffic, bunched congested traffic, and standing congested traffic. Several different statistical methods were used to accomplish the research objective. The preliminary analysis showed that traffic states significantly affected crash likelihood, collision type, and injury severity. Nonlinear canonical correlation analysis (NLCCA) was conducted to identify the underlying phenomena that made certain traffic states more hazardous than others. The results suggested that different traffic states were associated with various collision types and injury severities. The matching of traffic flow characteristics and crash characteristics in NLCCA revealed how traffic states affected traffic safety. The logistic regression analyses showed that the factors contributing to crash risks were quite different across various traffic states. To incorporate the varying crash mechanisms across different traffic states, random parameters logistic regression was used to develop a real-time crash risk model. Bayesian inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations was used for model estimation. The parameters of traffic flow variables in the model were allowed to vary across different traffic states. Compared with the standard logistic regression model, the proposed model significantly improved the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance. These results can promote a better understanding of the relationship between traffic flow characteristics and crash risks, which is valuable knowledge in the pursuit of improving traffic safety on freeways through the use of dynamic safety management systems.

Effectiveness of forward collision warning and autonomous emergency braking systems in reducing front-to-rear crash rates.

PubMed

Cicchino, Jessica B

2017-02-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of forward collision warning (FCW) alone, a low-speed autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system operational at speeds up to 19mph that does not warn the driver prior to braking, and FCW with AEB that operates at higher speeds in reducing front-to-rear crashes and injuries. Poisson regression was used to compare rates of police-reported crash involvements per insured vehicle year in 22 U.S. states during 2010-2014 between passenger vehicle models with FCW alone or with AEB and the same models where the optional systems were not purchased, controlling for other factors affecting crash risk. Similar analyses compared rates between Volvo 2011-2012 model S60 and 2010-2012 model XC60 vehicles with a standard low-speed AEB system to those of other luxury midsize cars and SUVs, respectively, without the system. FCW alone, low-speed AEB, and FCW with AEB reduced rear-end striking crash involvement rates by 27%, 43%, and 50%, respectively. Rates of rear-end striking crash involvements with injuries were reduced by 20%, 45%, and 56%, respectively, by FCW alone, low-speed AEB, and FCW with AEB, and rates of rear-end striking crash involvements with third-party injuries were reduced by 18%, 44%, and 59%, respectively. Reductions in rear-end striking crashes with third-party injuries were marginally significant for FCW alone, and all other reductions were statistically significant. FCW alone and low-speed AEB reduced rates of being rear struck in rear-end crashes by 13% and 12%, respectively, but FCW with AEB increased rates of rear-end struck crash involvements by 20%. Almost 1 million U.S. police-reported rear-end crashes in 2014 and more than 400,000 injuries in such crashes could have been prevented if all vehicles were equipped with FCW and AEB that perform similarly as systems did for study vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence of Human Induce Factors in Automotive Crashes in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Abidemi, Awopeju K.

2013-01-01

Nigeria is one of the countries in Africa highly affected by automotive crashes which led to establishment of Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC). The organization fought and is fighting against reckless driving in the country to prevent loss of life through automotive crashes. The record of the organization and the Statistical investigation of the researcher reveal that most of the crashes were due to human error such as alcoholism, inexperience and peer influence on the high-way. The data for the research was collected from published report of FRSC 2012 and analyzed using chi-square dependency test and charts due to the nature of the presentation. Ratios were used to determine Number of people killed per Road Total Crashes (RTC), Casualty per RTC and RTC severity Index from 2007 to 2010 in the country. Among the human induced factors, it was discovered that most of the drivers involved in road crashes were drunk during the period and the years of experience play major role in the automotive crashes as drivers with less than 2years of experience were more involved than the other groups. In the consideration of life style of drivers involve in road crashes, it was discovered that drivers with less than 30years of age are vulnerable to road crashes than drivers with ages higher than 30years. Among the findings, the most common automobile in Nigeria road crashes is commercial buses in the years considered. It was recommended that proper and adequate training should be given to drivers on the high-way to prevent injuries and loss of life. Alcoholism should be discouraged in totality and age of obtaining drivers license could be increased in developing countries such as Nigeria. PMID:24406969

Concordance of motor vehicle crash, emergency department, and inpatient hospitalization data sets in the identification of drugs in injured drivers.

PubMed

Bunn, T; Singleton, M; Nicholson, V; Slavova, S

2013-01-01

Prescription drug overdoses, abuse, and sales have increased dramatically in the United States in the last decade. The purpose of the present study was to link crash data with emergency department (ED) and inpatient hospitalization data to assess the concordance between the data sets in the identification of the presence of drugs among injured motor vehicle drivers (passenger cars, passenger trucks, light trucks, and semi-trucks) in Kentucky. Kentucky CRASH data were probabilistically linked to ED data sets for years 2008-2010 and to inpatient hospitalization data sets for years 2000-2010. Statistical analyses were performed. Of the 72,529 linked crash/ED visits, there were 473 drivers with an associated nondependent abuse of drugs diagnosis in the ED, and 930 drivers had drug involvement recorded in the CRASH data (only 163 cases overlapped with drug involvement both recorded in CRASH data and coded as nondependent abuse of drugs in the ED); 64 drivers had multiple drug types present in their system. Of the 20,860 total linked crash/inpatient hospitalization cases, there were 973 drivers diagnosed with nondependent abuse of drugs in the inpatient hospitalization record and 499 drivers had drug involvement recorded in the CRASH data (only 207 overlapped); 250 drivers were diagnosed with multiple drugs in their system. Surveillance data from multiple public health data sets is necessary to identify the presence of drugs in injured drivers involved in motor vehicle crashes. The use of a single surveillance data set alone may significantly underreport the number of drugged drivers who were injured in a motor vehicle collision.

A comparison of freeway median crash frequency, severity, and barrier strike outcomes by median barrier type.

PubMed

Russo, Brendan J; Savolainen, Peter T

2018-08-01

Median-crossover crashes are among the most hazardous events that can occur on freeways, often resulting in severe or fatal injuries. The primary countermeasure to reduce the occurrence of such crashes is the installation of a median barrier. When installation of a median barrier is warranted, transportation agencies are faced with the decision among various alternatives including concrete barriers, beam guardrail, or high-tension cable barriers. Each barrier type differs in terms of its deflection characteristics upon impact, the required installation and maintenance costs, and the roadway characteristics (e.g., median width) where installation would be feasible. This study involved an investigation of barrier performance through an in-depth analysis of crash frequency and severity data from freeway segments where high-tension cable, thrie-beam, and concrete median barriers were installed. A comprehensive manual review of crash reports was conducted to identify crashes in which a vehicle left the roadway and encroached into the median. This review also involved an examination of crash outcomes when a barrier strike occurred, which included vehicle containment, penetration, or re-direction onto the travel lanes. The manual review of crash reports provided critical supplementary information through narratives and diagrams not normally available through standard fields on police crash report forms. Statistical models were estimated to identify factors that affect the frequency, severity, and outcomes of median-related crashes, with particular emphases on differences between segments with varying median barrier types. Several roadway-, traffic-, and environmental-related characteristics were found to affect these metrics, with results varying across the different barrier types. The results of this study provide transportation agencies with important guidance as to the in-service performance of various types of median barrier. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using micro-simulation to investigate the safety impacts of transit design alternatives at signalized intersections.

PubMed

Li, Lu; Persaud, Bhagwant; Shalaby, Amer

2017-03-01

This study investigates the use of crash prediction models and micro-simulation to develop an effective surrogate safety assessment measure at the intersection level. With the use of these tools, hypothetical scenarios can be developed and explored to evaluate the safety impacts of design alternatives in a controlled environment, in which factors not directly associated with the design alternatives can be fixed. Micro-simulation models are developed, calibrated, and validated. Traffic conflicts in the micro-simulation models are estimated and linked with observed crash frequency, which greatly alleviates the lengthy time needed to collect sufficient crash data for evaluating alternatives, due to the rare and infrequent nature of crash events. A set of generalized linear models with negative binomial error structure is developed to correlate the simulated conflicts with the observed crash frequency in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Crash prediction models are also developed for crashes of different impact types and for transit-involved crashes. The resulting statistical significance and the goodness-of-fit of the models suggest adequate predictive ability. Based on the established correlation between simulated conflicts and observed crashes, scenarios are developed in the micro-simulation models to investigate the safety effects of individual transit line elements by making hypothetical modifications to such elements and estimating changes in crash frequency from the resulting changes in conflicts. The findings imply that the existing transit signal priority schemes can have a negative effect on safety performance, and that the existing near-side stop positioning and streetcar transit type can be safer at their current state than if they were to be replaced by their respective counterparts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Motor vehicle traffic crashes as a leading cause of death in the U.S. : summary of the 1997 mortality experience and traffic crash fatality trend from 1992 to 1997

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-06-01

The National Center for Statistics and Analysis (NCSA) recently completed a study of data on the causes of death for all persons, by age and sex, which occurred in the U.S. in 1997. The purpose of this study was to examine the status of motor vehicle...

Graduated driver license compliant teens involved in fatal motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Pressley, Joyce C; Addison, Diane; Dawson, Patrick; Nelson, Sharifa S

2015-09-01

Significant reductions in motor vehicle injury mortality have been reported for teen drivers after passage of graduated driver licensing (GDL), seat belt, and no tolerance alcohol and drug laws. Despite this, teen drivers remain a vulnerable population with elevated fatal crash involvement. This study examines driver, vehicle, and crash characteristics of GDL-compliant, belted, and unimpaired teen drivers with the goal of identifying areas where further improvements might be realized. The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) for 2007 to 2009 was used to examine and classify driver violations/errors in compliant teen drivers (n = 1,571) of passenger vehicles involved in a fatal collision. Teens driving unbelted, non-GDL compliant, or impaired by alcohol or drugs were excluded. Statistical analysis used χ, Fisher's exact and multivariable logistic regression. Odds ratios are reported with 95% confidence intervals. Significance was defined as p < 0.05. Nearly one third (n = 1,571) of teen drivers involved in a fatal motor vehicle crash were GDL compliant, unimpaired, and belted. The majority held an intermediate GDL license (90.6%). Crash-related factors were identified for 63.1% of fatal crashes. Age- and sex-adjusted odds identified overcorrecting, speeding, lane errors, school morning crashes, distractions, and driving on slippery surfaces as having increased odds of fatality for the teen driver as well as newer vehicle models and heavier vehicle weight as protective. Among compliant drivers, weekday crashes before and after school and committing a driving violation at the time of crash were associated with increased risk of driver death and higher incidence of incapacitating injury in surviving drivers. Therapeutic study, level V.

Improving surveillance for injuries associated with potential motor vehicle safety defects

PubMed Central

Whitfield, R; Whitfield, A

2004-01-01

Objective: To improve surveillance for deaths and injuries associated with potential motor vehicle safety defects. Design: Vehicles in fatal crashes can be studied for indications of potential defects using an "early warning" surveillance statistic previously suggested for screening reports of adverse drug reactions. This statistic is illustrated with time series data for fatal, tire related and fire related crashes. Geographic analyses are used to augment the tire related statistics. Results: A statistical criterion based on the Poisson distribution that tests the likelihood of an expected number of events, given the number of events that actually occurred, is a promising method that can be readily adapted for use in injury surveillance. Conclusions: Use of the demonstrated techniques could have helped to avert a well known injury surveillance failure. This method is adaptable to aid in the direction of engineering and statistical reviews to prevent deaths and injuries associated with potential motor vehicle safety defects using available databases. PMID:15066972

An evaluation of the effect of Ohio's graduated driver licensing law on motor vehicle crashes and crash outcomes involving drivers 16 to 20 years of age.

PubMed

Conner, Kristen A; Smith, Gary A

2017-05-19

Nationally, motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death among youth ages 16 to 20 years. Graduated driver licensing (GDL) laws have been implemented to reduce motor vehicle crashes among teen drivers. Studies have shown decreases in teen crash rates and crash-related fatality rates following enactment of GDL laws. However, GDL laws typically apply to teens only until their 18th birthday; therefore, the effect, if any, that GDL laws have on youth drivers ages 18 to 20 years and whether these programs should be extended to include these older youth warrant further study. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of Ohio's 2007 revised GDL law on motor vehicle crashes and crash-related injuries for crashes involving teen drivers ages 16 to 20 years, with a focus on the effects on crashes involving drivers ages 18 to 20 years. Cross-sectional analysis of motor vehicle crashes involving drivers ages 16 to 20 years in Ohio in the pre-GDL (2004-2006) and post-GDL (2008-2010) periods was performed. Descriptive statistics and population-based crash rates for drivers and occupants ages 16 to 20 years were calculated, as well as rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing crashes in the pre-GDL and post-GDL periods. Compared with the pre-GDL period, the post-GDL period was associated with lower crash rates for drivers age 16 years (relative risk [RR] = 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.98), age 17 years (RR = 0.90; 95% CI, 0.88-0.93), age 18 years (RR = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97), and ages 16-17 years combined (RR = 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95). Crash rate was higher for the post-GDL period for drivers age 19 years (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.07), age 20 years (RR = 1.09; 95% CI, 1.05-1.13), and ages 18-20 years combined (RR = 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.03). Unlike previous studies, this investigation used linked data to evaluate the outcomes of all occupants in crashes involving drivers ages 16-20 years. The post-GDL period was associated with lower crash, injury crash, and fatal crash involvement among drivers and occupants ages 16-17 years but higher overall crash involvement for drivers and occupants ages 19 years, 20 years, and 18-20 years combined. These findings support extending GDL restrictions to novice drivers ages 18 through 20 years to reduce crashes in that group.

Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models: examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique

2006-07-01

There has been considerable research conducted on the development of statistical models for predicting crashes on highway facilities. Despite numerous advancements made for improving the estimation tools of statistical models, the most common probabilistic structure used for modeling motor vehicle crashes remains the traditional Poisson and Poisson-gamma (or Negative Binomial) distribution; when crash data exhibit over-dispersion, the Poisson-gamma model is usually the model of choice most favored by transportation safety modelers. Crash data collected for safety studies often have the unusual attributes of being characterized by low sample mean values. Studies have shown that the goodness-of-fit of statistical models produced from such datasets can be significantly affected. This issue has been defined as the "low mean problem" (LMP). Despite recent developments on methods to circumvent the LMP and test the goodness-of-fit of models developed using such datasets, no work has so far examined how the LMP affects the fixed dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models used for modeling motor vehicle crashes. The dispersion parameter plays an important role in many types of safety studies and should, therefore, be reliably estimated. The primary objective of this research project was to verify whether the LMP affects the estimation of the dispersion parameter and, if it is, to determine the magnitude of the problem. The secondary objective consisted of determining the effects of an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter on common analyses performed in highway safety studies. To accomplish the objectives of the study, a series of Poisson-gamma distributions were simulated using different values describing the mean, the dispersion parameter, and the sample size. Three estimators commonly used by transportation safety modelers for estimating the dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models were evaluated: the method of moments, the weighted regression, and the maximum likelihood method. In an attempt to complement the outcome of the simulation study, Poisson-gamma models were fitted to crash data collected in Toronto, Ont. characterized by a low sample mean and small sample size. The study shows that a low sample mean combined with a small sample size can seriously affect the estimation of the dispersion parameter, no matter which estimator is used within the estimation process. The probability the dispersion parameter becomes unreliably estimated increases significantly as the sample mean and sample size decrease. Consequently, the results show that an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter can significantly undermine empirical Bayes (EB) estimates as well as the estimation of confidence intervals for the gamma mean and predicted response. The paper ends with recommendations about minimizing the likelihood of producing Poisson-gamma models with an unreliable dispersion parameter for modeling motor vehicle crashes.

Definition of run-off-road crash clusters-For safety benefit estimation and driver assistance development.

PubMed

Nilsson, Daniel; Lindman, Magdalena; Victor, Trent; Dozza, Marco

2018-04-01

Single-vehicle run-off-road crashes are a major traffic safety concern, as they are associated with a high proportion of fatal outcomes. In addressing run-off-road crashes, the development and evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems requires test scenarios that are representative of the variability found in real-world crashes. We apply hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis to define similarities in a set of crash data variables, these clusters can then be used as the basis in test scenario development. Out of 13 clusters, nine test scenarios are derived, corresponding to crashes characterised by: drivers drifting off the road in daytime and night-time, high speed departures, high-angle departures on narrow roads, highways, snowy roads, loss-of-control on wet roadways, sharp curves, and high speeds on roads with severe road surface conditions. In addition, each cluster was analysed with respect to crash variables related to the crash cause and reason for the unintended lane departure. The study shows that cluster analysis of representative data provides a statistically based method to identify relevant properties for run-off-road test scenarios. This was done to support development of vehicle-based run-off-road countermeasures and driver behaviour models used in virtual testing. Future studies should use driver behaviour from naturalistic driving data to further define how test-scenarios and behavioural causation mechanisms should be included. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using medico-legal data to investigate fatal older road user crash circumstances and risk factors.

PubMed

Koppel, Sjaan; Bugeja, Lyndal; Smith, Daisy; Lamb, Ashne; Dwyer, Jeremy; Fitzharris, Michael; Newstead, Stuart; D'Elia, Angelo; Charlton, Judith

2018-02-17

This study used medico-legal data to investigate fatal older road user (ORU, aged 65 years and older) crash circumstances and risk factors relating to 4 key components of the Safe System approach (e.g., roads and roadsides, vehicles, road users, and speeds) to identify areas of priority for targeted prevention activity. The Coroners' Court of Victoria's (CCOV) Surveillance Database was searched to identify and describe the frequency and rate per 100,000 population of fatal ORU crashes in the Australian state of Victoria for 2013-2014. Information relating to the deceased ORU, crash characteristics and circumstances, and risk factors was extracted and analyzed. One hundred and thirty-eight unintentional fatal ORU crashes were identified in the CCOV Surveillance Database. Of these fatal ORU crashes, most involved older drivers (44%), followed by older pedestrians (32%), older passengers (17%), older pedal cyclists (4%), older motorcyclists (1%), and older mobility scooter users (1%). The average annual rate of fatal ORU crashes per 100,000 population was 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.0-10.2). In terms of the crash characteristics and circumstances, most fatal ORU crashes involved a counterpart (98%), of which the majority were passenger cars (50%) or fixed/stationary objects (25%), including trees (46%) or embankments (23%). In addition, most fatal ORU crashes occurred close to home (73%), on-road (87%), on roads that were paved (94%), on roads with light traffic volume (37%), and during low-risk conditions: between 12 p.m. and 6 p.m. (44%), on weekdays (80%), during daylight (75%), and under dry/clear conditions (81%). Road user (RU) error was identified by the police and/or the coroner for the majority of fatal crashes (55%), with a significant proportion of deceased ORUs deemed to have failed to yield (54%) or misjudged (41%). RU error was the most significant factor identified in fatal ORU crashes, which suggests that there is a limited capacity of the road system to fully accommodate RU errors. Initiatives related to safer roads and roadsides, vehicles, speed zones, as well as behavioral approaches are key areas of priority for targeted activity to prevent fatal ORU crashes in the future.

Dynamic compositional modeling of pedestrian crash counts on urban roads in Connecticut.

PubMed

Serhiyenko, Volodymyr; Ivan, John N; Ravishanker, Nalini; Islam, Md Saidul

2014-03-01

Uncovering the temporal trend in crash counts provides a good understanding of the context for pedestrian safety. With a rareness of pedestrian crashes it is impossible to investigate monthly temporal effects with an individual segment/intersection level data, thus the time dependence should be derived from the aggregated level data. Most previous studies have used annual data to investigate the differences in pedestrian crashes between different regions or countries in a given year, and/or to look at time trends of fatal pedestrian injuries annually. Use of annual data unfortunately does not provide sufficient information on patterns in time trends or seasonal effects. This paper describes statistical methods uncovering patterns in monthly pedestrian crashes aggregated on urban roads in Connecticut from January 1995 to December 2009. We investigate the temporal behavior of injury severity levels, including fatal (K), severe injury (A), evident minor injury (B), and non-evident possible injury and property damage only (C and O), as proportions of all pedestrian crashes in each month, taking into consideration effects of time trend, seasonal variations and VMT (vehicle miles traveled). This type of dependent multivariate data is characterized by positive components which sum to one, and occurs in several applications in science and engineering. We describe a dynamic framework with vector autoregressions (VAR) for modeling and predicting compositional time series. Combining these predictions with predictions from a univariate statistical model for total crash counts will then enable us to predict pedestrian crash counts with the different injury severity levels. We compare these predictions with those obtained from fitting separate univariate models to time series of crash counts at each injury severity level. We also show that the dynamic models perform better than the corresponding static models. We implement the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach to enable fast Bayesian posterior computation. Taking CO injury severity level as a baseline for the compositional analysis, we conclude that there was a noticeable shift in the proportion of pedestrian crashes from injury severity A to B, while the increase for injury severity K was extremely small over time. This shift to the less severe injury level (from A to B) suggests that the overall safety on urban roads in Connecticut is improving. In January and February, there was some increase in the proportions for levels A and B over the baseline, indicating a seasonal effect. We found evidence that an increase in VMT would result in a decrease of proportions over the baseline for all injury severity levels. Our dynamic model uncovered a decreasing trend in all pedestrian crash counts before April 2005, followed by a noticeable increase and a flattening out until the end of the fitting period. This appears to be largely due to the behavior of injury severity level A pedestrian crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship of Near-Crash/Crash Risk to Time Spent on a Cell Phone While Driving.

PubMed

Farmer, Charles M; Klauer, Sheila G; McClafferty, Julie A; Guo, Feng

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine in a naturalistic driving setting the dose-response relationship between cell phone usage while driving and risk of a crash or near crash. How is the increasing use of cell phones by drivers associated with overall near-crash/crash risk (i.e., during driving times both on and off the phone)? Day-to-day driving behavior of 105 volunteer subjects was monitored over a period of 1 year. A random sample was selected comprised of 4 trips from each month that each driver was in the study, and in-vehicle video was used to classify driver behavior. The proportion of driving time spent using a cell phone was estimated for each 3-month period and correlated with overall crash and near-crash rates for each period. Thus, it was possible to test whether changes in an individual driver's cell phone use over time were associated with changes in overall near-crash/crash risk. Drivers in the study spent 11.7% of their driving time interacting with a cell phone, primarily talking on the phone (6.5%) or simply holding the phone in their hand or lap (3.7%). The risk of a near-crash/crash event was approximately 17% higher when the driver was interacting with a cell phone, due primarily to actions of reaching for/answering/dialing, which nearly triples risk (relative risk = 2.84). However, the amount of driving time spent interacting with a cell phone did not affect a driver's overall near-crash/crash risk. Vehicle speeds within 6 s of the beginning of each call on average were 5-6 mph lower than speeds at other times. Results of this naturalistic driving study are consistent with the observation that increasing cell phone use in the general driving population has not led to increased crash rates. Although cell phone use can be distracting and crashes have occurred during this distraction, overall crash rates appear unaffected by changes in the rate of cell phone use, even for individual drivers. Drivers compensate somewhat for the distraction by conducting some of the more demanding tasks, such as reaching for or dialing a cell phone, at lower speeds. It is also possible that cell phones and other electronic devices in cars are changing how drivers manage their attention to various tasks and/or changing the kinds of secondary tasks in which they engage.

Patterns of severe injury in pediatric car crash victims: Crash Injury Research Engineering Network database.

PubMed

Brown, J Kristine; Jing, Yuezhou; Wang, Stewart; Ehrlich, Peter F

2006-02-01

Motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) account for 50% of pediatric trauma. Safety improvements are typically tested with child crash dummies using an in vitro model. The Crash Injury Research Engineering Network (CIREN) provides an in vivo validation process. Previous research suggest that children in lateral crashes or front-seat locations have higher Injury Severity Scale scores and lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores than those in frontal-impact crashes. However, specific injury patterns and crash characteristics have not been characterized. Data were collected from the CIREN multidisciplinary crash reconstruction network (10 pediatric trauma centers). Injuries were examined with regard to crash direction (frontal/lateral), restraint use, seat location, and change in velocity at impact (DeltaV). Injuries were limited to Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores of 3 or higher and included head, thoracic, abdominal, pelvic, spine, and long bone (orthopedic) injuries. Standard age groupings (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-18 years) were used. Statistical analyses used Fisher's Exact test and multiple logistic regressions. Four hundred seventeen MVCs with 2500 injuries were analyzed (males = 219, females = 198). Controlling for DeltaV and age, children in lateral-impact crashes (n = 232) were significantly more likely to suffer severe injuries to the head and thorax as compared with children in frontal crashes (n = 185), who were more likely to suffer severe spine and orthopedic injuries. Children in a front-seat (n = 236) vs those in a back-seat (n = 169) position had more injuries to the thoracic (27% vs 17%), abdominal (21% vs 13%), pelvic (11% vs 1%), and orthopedic (28% vs 10%) regions (P < .05 for all). Seat belts were protective for pelvic (5% vs 12% unbelted) and orthopedic (15% vs 40%) injuries (odds ratio = 3, P < .01 for both). A reproducible pattern of injury is noted for children involved in lateral-impact crashes characterized by head and chest injuries. The Injury Severity Scale scores were higher for children in front-seat positions. Increased lateral-impact safety measures such as mandatory side curtain airbags may decrease morbidity. Furthermore, continued public education for positioning children in the back seat of cars is warranted.

Safety performance evaluation of cable median barriers on freeways in Florida.

PubMed

Alluri, Priyanka; Haleem, Kirolos; Gan, Albert; Mauthner, John

2016-07-03

This article aims to evaluate the safety performance of cable median barriers on freeways in Florida. The safety performance evaluation was based on the percentages of barrier and median crossovers by vehicle type, crash severity, and cable median barrier type (Trinity Cable Safety System [CASS] and Gibraltar system). Twenty-three locations with cable median barriers totaling about 101 miles were identified. Police reports of 6,524 crashes from years 2005-2010 at these locations were reviewed to verify and obtain detailed crash information. A total of 549 crashes were determined to be barrier related (i.e., crashes involving vehicles hitting the cable median barrier) and were reviewed in further detail to identify crossover crashes and the manner in which the vehicles crossed the barriers; that is, by either overriding, underriding, or penetrating the barriers. Overall, 2.6% of vehicles that hit the cable median barrier crossed the median and traversed into the opposite travel lane. Overall, 98.1% of cars and 95.5% of light trucks that hit the barrier were prevented from crossing the median. In other words, 1.9% of cars and 4.5% of light trucks that hit the barrier had crossed the median and encroached on the opposite travel lanes. There is no significant difference in the performance of cable median barrier for cars versus light trucks in terms of crossover crashes. In terms of severity, overrides were more severe compared to underrides and penetrations. The statistics showed that the CASS and Gibraltar systems performed similarly in terms of crossover crashes. However, the Gibraltar system experienced a higher proportion of penetrations compared to the CASS system. The CASS system resulted in a slightly higher percentage of moderate and minor injury crashes compared to the Gibraltar system. Cable median barriers are successful in preventing median crossover crashes; 97.4% of the cable median barrier crashes were prevented from crossing over the median. Of all of the vehicles that hit the barrier, 83.6% were either redirected or contained by the cable barrier system. Barrier crossover crashes were found to be more severe compared to barrier noncrossover crashes. In addition, overrides were found to be more severe compared to underrides and penetrations.

Non-linear effects of the built environment on automobile-involved pedestrian crash frequency: A machine learning approach.

PubMed

Ding, Chuan; Chen, Peng; Jiao, Junfeng

2018-03-01

Although a growing body of literature focuses on the relationship between the built environment and pedestrian crashes, limited evidence is provided about the relative importance of many built environment attributes by accounting for their mutual interaction effects and their non-linear effects on automobile-involved pedestrian crashes. This study adopts the approach of Multiple Additive Poisson Regression Trees (MAPRT) to fill such gaps using pedestrian collision data collected from Seattle, Washington. Traffic analysis zones are chosen as the analytical unit. The effects of various factors on pedestrian crash frequency investigated include characteristics the of road network, street elements, land use patterns, and traffic demand. Density and the degree of mixed land use have major effects on pedestrian crash frequency, accounting for approximately 66% of the effects in total. More importantly, some factors show clear non-linear relationships with pedestrian crash frequency, challenging the linearity assumption commonly used in existing studies which employ statistical models. With various accurately identified non-linear relationships between the built environment and pedestrian crashes, this study suggests local agencies to adopt geo-spatial differentiated policies to establish a safe walking environment. These findings, especially the effective ranges of the built environment, provide evidence to support for transport and land use planning, policy recommendations, and road safety programs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Random parameter models of interstate crash frequencies by severity, number of vehicles involved, collision and location type.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Narayan; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venky N

2013-10-01

A nine-year (1999-2007) continuous panel of crash histories on interstates in Washington State, USA, was used to estimate random parameter negative binomial (RPNB) models for various aggregations of crashes. A total of 21 different models were assessed in terms of four ways to aggregate crashes, by: (a) severity, (b) number of vehicles involved, (c) crash type, and by (d) location characteristics. The models within these aggregations include specifications for all severities (property damage only, possible injury, evident injury, disabling injury, and fatality), number of vehicles involved (one-vehicle to five-or-more-vehicle), crash type (sideswipe, same direction, overturn, head-on, fixed object, rear-end, and other), and location types (urban interchange, rural interchange, urban non-interchange, rural non-interchange). A total of 1153 directional road segments comprising of the seven Washington State interstates were analyzed, yielding statistical models of crash frequency based on 10,377 observations. These results suggest that in general there was a significant improvement in log-likelihood when using RPNB compared to a fixed parameter negative binomial baseline model. Heterogeneity effects are most noticeable for lighting type, road curvature, and traffic volume (ADT). Median lighting or right-side lighting are linked to increased crash frequencies in many models for more than half of the road segments compared to both-sides lighting. Both-sides lighting thereby appears to generally lead to a safety improvement. Traffic volume has a random parameter but the effect is always toward increasing crash frequencies as expected. However that the effect is random shows that the effect of traffic volume on crash frequency is complex and varies by road segment. The number of lanes has a random parameter effect only in the interchange type models. The results show that road segment-specific insights into crash frequency occurrence can lead to improved design policy and project prioritization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing rear-end crash potential in urban locations based on vehicle-by-vehicle interactions, geometric characteristics and operational conditions.

PubMed

Dimitriou, Loukas; Stylianou, Katerina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A

2018-03-01

Rear-end crashes are one of the most frequently occurring crash types, especially in urban networks. An understanding of the contributing factors and their significant association with rear-end crashes is of practical importance and will help in the development of effective countermeasures. The objective of this study is to assess rear-end crash potential at a microscopic level in an urban environment, by investigating vehicle-by-vehicle interactions. To do so, several traffic parameters at the individual vehicle level have been taken into consideration, for capturing car-following characteristics and vehicle interactions, and to investigate their effect on potential rear-end crashes. In this study rear-end crash potential was estimated based on stopping distance between two consecutive vehicles, and four rear-end crash potential cases were developed. The results indicated that 66.4% of the observations were estimated as rear-end crash potentials. It was also shown that rear-end crash potential was presented when traffic flow and speed standard deviation were higher. Also, locational characteristics such as lane of travel and location in the network were found to affect drivers' car following decisions and additionally, it was shown that speeds were lower and headways higher when Heavy Goods Vehicles lead. Finally, a model-based behavioral analysis based on Multinomial Logit regression was conducted to systematically identify the statistically significant variables in explaining rear-end risk potential. The modeling results highlighted the significance of the explanatory variables associated with rear-end crash potential, however it was shown that their effect varied among different model configurations. The outcome of the results can be of significant value for several purposes, such as real-time monitoring of risk potential, allocating enforcement units in urban networks and designing targeted proactive safety policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential Occupant Injury Reduction in Pre-Crash System Equipped Vehicles in the Striking Vehicle of Rear-end Crashes.

PubMed

Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C

2010-01-01

To mitigate the severity of rear-end and other collisions, Pre-Crash Systems (PCS) are being developed. These active safety systems utilize radar and/or video cameras to determine when a frontal crash, such as a front-to-back rear-end collisions, is imminent and can brake autonomously, even with no driver input. Of these PCS features, the effects of autonomous pre-crash braking are estimated. To estimate the maximum potential for injury reduction due to autonomous pre-crash braking in the striking vehicle of rear-end crashes, a methodology is presented for determining 1) the reduction in vehicle crash change in velocity (ΔV) due to PCS braking and 2) the number of injuries that could be prevented due to the reduction in collision severity. Injury reduction was only performed for belted drivers, as unbelted drivers have an unknown risk of being thrown out of position. The study was based on 1,406 rear-end striking vehicles from NASS / CDS years 1993 to 2008. PCS parameters were selected from realistic values and varied to examine the effect on system performance. PCS braking authority was varied from 0.5 G's to 0.8 G's while time to collision (TTC) was held at 0.45 seconds. TTC was then varied from 0.3 second to 0.6 seconds while braking authority was held constant at 0.6 G's. A constant braking pulse (step function) and ramp-up braking pulse were used. The study found that automated PCS braking could reduce the crash ΔV in rear-end striking vehicles by an average of 12% - 50% and avoid 0% - 14% of collisions, depending on PCS parameters. Autonomous PCS braking could potentially reduce the number of injured drivers who are belted by 19% to 57%.

Cognitive Decline and Older Driver Crash Risk.

PubMed

Fraade-Blanar, Laura A; Ebel, Beth E; Larson, Eric B; Sears, Jeanne M; Thompson, Hilaire J; Chan, Kwun Chuen G; Crane, Paul K

2018-04-17

To examine automobile crash risk associated with cognition in older drivers without dementia. Retrospective secondary analysis of longitudinal cohort study. Our study used data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) Study merged with Washington State crash reports and licensure records. Data were available from 2002 to 2015. Group Health enrollees from Washington State aged 65 and older with active driver's licenses (N=2,615). Cognitive function was assessed using the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument scored using item response theory (CASI-IRT). The study outcome was police-reported motor vehicle crash. We used a negative binomial mixed-effects model with robust standard errors clustered on the individual and considered associations between crash risk, level of cognition, and amount of decline since the previous study visit. Covariates included age, sex, education, alcohol, depression, medical comorbidities, eyesight, hearing, and physical function. Individuals were censored at dementia diagnosis, death, or failure to renew their license. Over an average of 7 years of follow-up, 350 (13%) people had at least one crash. A 1-unit lower CASI-IRT score was associated with a higher adjusted incidence rate ratio of crash of 1.26 (95% confidence interval=1.08-1.51). Beyond level of cognition, amount of cognitive decline between study visits was not associated with crash risk. This study suggests that, in older drivers, poorer performance on the CASI-IRT may be a risk factor for motor vehicle crashes, even in individuals without diagnosed dementia. Further research is needed to understand driving behavior and inform driving decisions for older adults with poor cognitive function. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

Cell phone use while driving and attributable crash risk.

PubMed

Farmer, Charles M; Braitman, Keli A; Lund, Adrian K

2010-10-01

Prior research has estimated that crash risk is 4 times higher when talking on a cell phone versus not talking. The objectives of this study were to estimate the extent to which drivers talk on cell phones while driving and to compute the implied annual number of crashes that could have been avoided if driver cell phone use were restricted. A national survey of approximately 1200 U.S. drivers was conducted. Respondents were asked to approximate the amount of time spent driving during a given day, number of cell phone calls made or received, and amount of driving time spent talking on a cell phone. Population attributable risk (PAR) was computed for each combination of driver gender, driver age, day of week, and time of day. These were multiplied by the corresponding crash counts to estimate the number of crashes that could have been avoided. On average, drivers were talking on cell phones approximately 7 percent of the time while driving. Rates were higher on weekdays (8%), in the afternoon and evening (8%), and for drivers younger than 30 (16%). Based on these use rates, restricting cell phones while driving could have prevented an estimated 22 percent (i.e., 1.3 million) of the crashes in 2008. Although increased rates of cell phone use while driving should be leading to increased crash rates, crash rates have been declining. Reasons for this paradox are unclear. One possibility is that the increase in cell phone use and crash risk due to cell phone use have been overestimated. Another possibility is that cell phone use has supplanted other driving distractions that were similarly hazardous.

Crash involvement of motor vehicles in relationship to the number and severity of traffic offenses. An exploratory analysis of Dutch traffic offenses and crash data.

PubMed

Goldenbeld, Charles; Reurings, Martine; Van Norden, Yvette; Stipdonk, Henk

2013-01-01

To establish the statistical relationship between offenses and crashes when the unit of analysis is the vehicle instead of the driver, to show the influence of the severity (e.g., minor speed offenses) on this relationship, and to research whether the form of this relationship is similar in different enforcement contexts. An exploratory analysis was conducted using Dutch traffic offense and crash data. Crash data included all police-registered crashes involving motorized and registered vehicles in 2009; offense data included all non-criminal traffic offenses registered during 2005-2009 (mostly camera detected). Together these comprise an estimated 97 percent of all traffic offenses registered in this period. The analysis was done on a level of identified vehicles rather than persons. Vehicles involved in crashes were matched to vehicles involved in traffic offenses. The offense frequency distributions of registered crash involved vehicles and a random selection of vehicles was analyzed. Two comparisons were made: (1) privately owned vehicles versus company-owned vehicles and (2) vehicles for which only minor speed offenses were registered versus vehicles for which at least one major speed offense was registered. An increase in traffic offense frequency coincides with a stronger increase in relative crash involvement. This relationship was adequately described by a power function. The slightly more than linear increase in the crash risk for vehicles with only minor speed offenses suggests that minor speed offenses (<10 km/h over the limit) contributed slightly to crashes. This relationship was unlikely to be caused by increased distance traveled only. For vehicles with at least one or more major speed violation an approximately quadratic increase of crash risk with increasing speed offense frequency was found. A comparison of Dutch and Canadian data showed a much more progressive offense-crash relationship in the Dutch data. The crash involvement of vehicles increased more than linearly with the number of minor traffic violations. Thus, automatic detection of minor offenses bears relevance to safety. The substantial increase in crash rates with speed offense frequency for vehicles with at least one major speed violation suggests that these vehicles represent a specific group with a significantly increased crash risk, especially in the case of many minor offenses. The more progressive relationship between offenses and crashes in The Netherlands when compared to Canada was hypothesized to result from the higher intensity camera enforcement levels and less severe consequences in the Dutch enforcement and adjudication system.

Severe injury in multiple impacts: Analysis of 1997-2015 NASS-CDS.

PubMed

Viano, David C; Parenteau, Chantal S

2018-07-04

This is a descriptive study of the incidence and risk for severe injury in single-impact and multi-impact crashes by belt use and crash type using NASS-CDS. 1997-2015 NASS-CDS data were used to determine the distribution of crashes by the number of impacts and severe injury (Maximum Abbreviated Injury Score [MAIS] 4+F) to >15-year-old nonejected drivers by seat belt use in 1997+ MY vehicles. It compares the risk for severe injury in a single impact and in crashes involving 2, 3, or 4+ impacts in the collision with a focus on a frontal crash followed by other impacts. Most vehicle crashes involve a single impact (75.4% of 44,889,518 vehicles), followed by 2-impact crashes (19.6%), 3-impact crashes (5.0%) and 4+ impacts (2.6%). For lap-shoulder-belted drivers, the distribution of severe injury was 42.1% in a single impact, 29.3% in 2 impacts, 13.4% in 3 impacts, and 15.1% in 4+ impact crashes. The risk for a belted driver was 0.256 ± 0.031% in a single impact, 0.564 ± 0.079% in 2 impacts, 0.880 ± 0.125% in 3 impacts, and 2.121 ± 0.646% in 4+ impact. The increase in risk from a single crash to multi-impact collisions was statistically significant (P < .001). In a single impact, 53.8% of belted drivers were in a frontal crashes, 22.4% in side crashes, 20% in rear crashes, and 1.7% in rollover crashes. The risk for severe injury was highest in a rollover at 0.677 ± 0.250%, followed by near-side impact at 0.467 ± 0.084% and far-side impact at 0.237 ± 0.071%. Seat belt use was 82.4% effective in preventing severe injury (MAIS 4+F) in a rollover, 47.9% in a near-side impact, and 74.8% in a far-side impact. In 2-impact crashes with a belted driver, the most common sequence was a rear impact followed by a frontal crash at 1,843,506 (21.5%) with a risk for severe injury of 0.100 ± 0.058%. The second most common was a frontal impact followed by another frontal crash at 1,257,264 (14.7%) with a risk of 0.401 ± 0.057%. The risk was 0.658 ± 0.271% in a frontal impact followed by a rear impact. A near-side impact followed by a rear crash had the highest risk for severe injury at 2.073 ± 1.322%. Restraint systems are generally developed for a single crash or sled test. The risk for severe injury was significantly higher in 2-, 3-, and 4+-impact crashes than a single impact. The majority (57.9%) of severe injuries occurred in multi-impact crashes with belted drivers. The evaluation of restraint performance warrants additional study in multi-impact crashes.

The risk of groundling fatalities from unintentional airplane crashes.

PubMed

Thompson, K M; Rabouw, R F; Cooke, R M

2001-12-01

The crashes of four hijacked commercial planes on September 11, 2001, and the repeated televised images of the consequent collapse of the World Trade Center and one side of the Pentagon will inevitably change people's perceptions of the mortality risks to people on the ground from crashing airplanes. Goldstein and colleagues were the first to quantify the risk for Americans of being killed on the ground from a crashing airplane for unintentional events, providing average point estimates of 6 in a hundred million for annual risk and 4.2 in a million for lifetime risk. They noted that the lifetime risk result exceeded the commonly used risk management threshold of 1 in a million, and suggested that the risk to "groundlings" could be a useful risk communication tool because (a) it is a man-made risk (b) arising from economic activities (c) from which the victims derive no benefit and (d) exposure to which the victims cannot control. Their results have been used in risk communication. This analysis provides updated estimates of groundling fatality risks from unintentional crashes using more recent data and a geographical information system approach to modeling the population around airports. The results suggest that the average annual risk is now 1.2 in a hundred million and the lifetime risk is now 9 in ten million (below the risk management threshold). Analysis of the variability and uncertainty of this estimate, however, suggests that the exposure to groundling fatality risk varies by about a factor of approximately 100 in the spatial dimension of distance to an airport, with the risk declining rapidly outside the first 2 miles around an airport. We believe that the risk to groundlings from crashing airplanes is more useful in the context of risk communication when information about variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is characterized, but we suspect that recent events will alter its utility in risk communication.

Characterization of Human Rib Biomechanical Responses due to Three-Point Bending.

PubMed

Kalra, Anil; Saif, Tal; Shen, Ming; Jin, Xin; Zhu, Feng; Begeman, Paul; Yang, King H; Millis, Scott

2015-11-01

In the elderly population, rib fracture is one of the most common injuries sustained in motor vehicle crashes. The current study was conducted to predict the biomechanical fracture responses of ribs with respect to age, gender, height, weight and percentage of ash content. Three-point bending experiments were conducted on 278 isolated rib samples extracted from 82 cadaver specimens (53 males and 29 females between the ages of 21 and 87 years) for 6th and 7th levels of ribs. Statistical analyses were carried out to identify differences based on age and gender. It was found that, in comparison to males, females had significantly lower values for maximum bending moments, slopes of bending moment-angle curves, and average cortical-bone thickness (p<0.05). Samples of ribs taken from elderly specimens failed at lower values of fracture moments than those from younger specimens, and had lower slopes of bending moment-angle curves, both in males and females (p<0.05). The generalized estimated equations were developed to predict the values of biomechanical response and average cortical thickness based on age, gender, height and weight of individual specimens. Results from the current study illustrate that biomechanical responses and rib cortical thicknesses are functions of age, gender, height and weight. However, the current study is limited to a quasi-static loading scheme, which is different from real crash conditions. Hence, rib-material properties, which are dependent on strain rate, and are needed for wholebody finite element models representing different populations, still require more research.

A generalized nonlinear model-based mixed multinomial logit approach for crash data analysis.

PubMed

Zeng, Ziqiang; Zhu, Wenbo; Ke, Ruimin; Ash, John; Wang, Yinhai; Xu, Jiuping; Xu, Xinxin

2017-02-01

The mixed multinomial logit (MNL) approach, which can account for unobserved heterogeneity, is a promising unordered model that has been employed in analyzing the effect of factors contributing to crash severity. However, its basic assumption of using a linear function to explore the relationship between the probability of crash severity and its contributing factors can be violated in reality. This paper develops a generalized nonlinear model-based mixed MNL approach which is capable of capturing non-monotonic relationships by developing nonlinear predictors for the contributing factors in the context of unobserved heterogeneity. The crash data on seven Interstate freeways in Washington between January 2011 and December 2014 are collected to develop the nonlinear predictors in the model. Thirteen contributing factors in terms of traffic characteristics, roadway geometric characteristics, and weather conditions are identified to have significant mixed (fixed or random) effects on the crash density in three crash severity levels: fatal, injury, and property damage only. The proposed model is compared with the standard mixed MNL model. The comparison results suggest a slight superiority of the new approach in terms of model fit measured by the Akaike Information Criterion (12.06 percent decrease) and Bayesian Information Criterion (9.11 percent decrease). The predicted crash densities for all three levels of crash severities of the new approach are also closer (on average) to the observations than the ones predicted by the standard mixed MNL model. Finally, the significance and impacts of the contributing factors are analyzed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Scottsdale Loop 101 automated speed enforcement demonstration program.

PubMed

Shin, Kangwon; Washington, Simon P; van Schalkwyk, Ida

2009-05-01

Speeding is recognized as a major contributing factor in traffic crashes. In order to reduce speed-related crashes, the city of Scottsdale, Arizona implemented the first fixed-camera photo speed enforcement program (SEP) on a limited access freeway in the US. The 9-month demonstration program spanning from January 2006 to October 2006 was implemented on a 6.5 mile urban freeway segment of Arizona State Route 101 running through Scottsdale. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the SEP on speeding behavior, crashes, and the economic impact of crashes. The impact on speeding behavior was estimated using generalized least square estimation, in which the observed speeds and the speeding frequencies during the program period were compared to those during other periods. The impact of the SEP on crashes was estimated using 3 evaluation methods: a before-and-after (BA) analysis using a comparison group, a BA analysis with traffic flow correction, and an empirical Bayes BA analysis with time-variant safety. The analysis results reveal that speeding detection frequencies (speeds> or =76 mph) increased by a factor of 10.5 after the SEP was (temporarily) terminated. Average speeds in the enforcement zone were reduced by about 9 mph when the SEP was implemented, after accounting for the influence of traffic flow. All crash types were reduced except rear-end crashes, although the estimated magnitude of impact varies across estimation methods (and their corresponding assumptions). When considering Arizona-specific crash related injury costs, the SEP is estimated to yield about $17 million in annual safety benefits.

Effectiveness of mandatory license testing for older drivers in reducing crash risk among urban older Australian drivers.

PubMed

Langford, Jim; Fitzharris, Michael; Koppel, Sjaanie; Newstead, Stuart

2004-12-01

Most licensing jurisdictions in Australia maintain mandatory assessment programs targeting older drivers, whereby a driver reaching a specified age is required to prove his or her fitness to drive through medical assessment and/or on-road testing. Previous studies both in Australia and elsewhere have consistently failed to demonstrate that age-based mandatory assessment results in reduced crash involvement for older drivers. However studies that have based their results upon either per-population or per-driver crash rates fail to take into account possible differences in driving activity. Because some older people maintain their driving licenses but rarely if ever drive, the proportion of inactive license-holders might be higher in jurisdictions without mandatory assessment relative to jurisdictions with periodic license assessment, where inactive drivers may more readily either surrender or lose their licenses. The failure to control for possible differences in driving activity across jurisdictions may be disguising possible safety benefits associated with mandatory assessment. The current study compared the crash rates of drivers in Melbourne, Australia, where there is no mandatory assessment and Sydney, Australia, where there is regular mandatory assessment from 80 years of age onward. The crash rate comparisons were based on four exposure measures: per population, per licensed driver, per distance driven, and per time spent driving. Poisson regression analysis incorporating an offset to control for inter-jurisdictional road safety differences indicated that there was no difference in crash risk for older drivers based on population. However drivers aged 80 years and older in the Sydney region had statistically higher rates of casualty crash involvement than their Melbourne counterparts on a per license issued basis (RR: 1.15, 1.02-1.29, p=0.02) and time spent driving basis (RR: 1.19, 1.06-1.34, p=0.03). A similar trend was apparent based on distance travelled but was of borderline statistical significance (RR: 1.11, 0.99-1.25, p=0.07). Collectively, it can be inferred from these findings that mandatory license re-testing schemes of the type evaluated have no demonstrable road safety benefits overall. Further research to resolve this on-going policy debate is discussed and recommended.

High Ambient Temperatures and Risk of Motor Vehicle Crashes in Catalonia, Spain (2000–2011): A Time-Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Escalera-Antezana, Juan Pablo; Dadvand, Payam; Llatje, Òscar; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Cunillera, Jordi; Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Pérez, Katherine

2015-01-01

Background Experimental studies have shown a decrease in driving performance at high temperatures. The epidemiological evidence for the relationship between heat and motor vehicle crashes is not consistent. Objectives We estimated the impact of high ambient temperatures on the daily number of motor vehicle crashes and, in particular, on crashes involving driver performance factors (namely distractions, driver error, fatigue, or sleepiness). Methods We performed a time-series analysis linking daily counts of motor vehicle crashes and daily temperature or occurrence of heat waves while controlling for temporal trends. All motor vehicle crashes with victims that occurred during the warm period of the years 2000–2011 in Catalonia (Spain) were included. Temperature data were obtained from 66 weather stations covering the region. Poisson regression models adjusted for precipitation, day of the week, month, year, and holiday periods were fitted to quantify the associations. Results The study included 118,489 motor vehicle crashes (an average of 64.1 per day). The estimated risk of crashes significantly increased by 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7%, 5.1%] during heat wave days, and this association was stronger (7.7%, 95% CI: 1.2%, 14.6%) when restricted to crashes with driver performance–associated factors. The estimated risk of crashes with driver performance factors significantly increased by 1.1% (95% CI: 0.1%, 2.1%) for each 1°C increase in maximum temperature. Conclusions Motor vehicle crashes involving driver performance–associated factors were increased in association with heat waves and increasing temperature. These findings are relevant for designing preventive plans in a context of global warming. Citation Basagaña X, Escalera-Antezana JP, Dadvand P, Llatje Ò, Barrera-Gómez J, Cunillera J, Medina-Ramón M, Pérez K. 2015. High ambient temperatures and risk of motor vehicle crashes in Catalonia, Spain (2000–2011): a time-series analysis. Environ Health Perspect 123:1309–1316; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409223 PMID:26046727

Spatial relationships between alcohol-related road crashes and retail alcohol availability.

PubMed

Morrison, Christopher; Ponicki, William R; Gruenewald, Paul J; Wiebe, Douglas J; Smith, Karen

2016-05-01

This study examines spatial relationships between alcohol outlet density and the incidence of alcohol-related crashes. The few prior studies conducted in this area used relatively large spatial units; here we use highly resolved units from Melbourne, Australia (Statistical Area level 1 [SA1] units: mean land area=0.5 km(2); SD=2.2 km(2)), in order to assess different micro-scale spatial relationships for on- and off-premise outlets. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models were used to assess cross-sectional relationships of three-year counts of alcohol-related crashes (2010-2012) attended by Ambulance Victoria paramedics to densities of bars, restaurants, and off-premise outlets controlling for other land use, demographic and roadway characteristics. Alcohol-related crashes were not related to bar density within local SA1 units, but were positively related to bar density in adjacent SA1 units. Alcohol-related crashes were negatively related to off-premise outlet density in local SA1 units. Examined in one metropolitan area using small spatial units, bar density is related to greater crash risk in surrounding areas. Observed negative relationships for off-premise outlets may be because the origins and destinations of alcohol-affected journeys are in distal locations relative to outlets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Analysis of Young Driver Crash Types and the Associated Lifetime Care Cost in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Buckis, Samantha; Lenné, Mike G; Fitzharris, Michael

2015-01-01

The elevated crash involvement rate of young drivers is well documented. Given the higher crash risk of young drivers and the need for innovative policy and programs, it remains important to fully understand the type of crashes young drivers are involved in, and knowledge of the lifetime care cost of crashes can support effective policy development. The aim of this article is to document the number and type of young driver crashes, as well as the associated lifetime care cost over a 9-year period (2005-2013) in Victoria, Australia. In Victoria, Australia, the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) has legislated responsibility for road safety and the care of persons injured in road crashes, irrespective of fault. TAC claims data for the period 2005-2013 were used to document the number and type of young driver crashes. Lifetime care costs (past and future payment liabilities) were calculated by Taylor Fry actuarial consultancy. License and population data were used to define the crash involvement rate of young drivers. Over the 9-year period, 16,817 claims were lodged to the TAC by drivers 18-25 years of age following a crash. There were 646 fewer drivers aged 18-25 killed and injured in 2013, compared to 2005, representing an unadjusted change of -28.7% (-29.8% males; -28.4% females). The total lifetime care cost of young drivers killed and injured in Victoria for the period 2005-2013 was estimated to be AU$634 million (US$493 million). Differences between males and females, single- and multivehicle crashes, and fatalities and injuries were found to be statistically significant. Run-off-road crashes and crashes from opposing direction were overrepresented in the lifetime care costs for young driver claimants. Twenty-eight injured drivers were classified as high-severity claims. These 28 claimants require additional long-term care, which was estimated to be AU$219 million; of these 28, 24 were male (85.7%). The long-term care costs for these 28 drivers (0.16%) accounts for 34.5% of the total lifetime care cost of all 18- to 25-year-old injured drivers. By using no-fault lifetime care costs that account for medical and like expenses, rehabilitation, and social reintegration costs, a more accurate understanding of the cost of young driver crashes can be determined. Application of these costs to specific crash types highlights new priorities and opportunities for developing programs to reduce young driver crashes.

Investigation on occupant injury severity in rear-end crashes involving trucks as the front vehicle in Beijing area, China.

PubMed

Yuan, Quan; Lu, Meng; Theofilatos, Athanasios; Li, Yi-Bing

2017-02-01

Rear-end crashes attribute to a large portion of total crashes in China, which lead to many casualties and property damage, especially when involving commercial vehicles. This paper aims to investigate the critical factors for occupant injury severity in the specific rear-end crash type involving trucks as the front vehicle (FV). This paper investigated crashes occurred from 2011 to 2013 in Beijing area, China and selected 100 qualified cases i.e., rear-end crashes involving trucks as the FV. The crash data were supplemented with interviews from police officers and vehicle inspection. A binary logistic regression model was used to build the relationship between occupant injury severity and corresponding affecting factors. Moreover, a multinomial logistic model was used to predict the likelihood of fatal or severe injury or no injury in a rear-end crash. The results provided insights on the characteristics of driver, vehicle and environment, and the corresponding influences on the likelihood of a rear-end crash. The binary logistic model showed that drivers' age, weight difference between vehicles, visibility condition and lane number of road significantly increased the likelihood for severe injury of rear-end crash. The multinomial logistic model and the average direct pseudo-elasticity of variables showed that night time, weekdays, drivers from other provinces and passenger vehicles as rear vehicles significantly increased the likelihood of rear drivers being fatal. All the abovementioned significant factors should be improved, such as the conditions of lighting and the layout of lanes on roads. Two of the most common driver factors are drivers' age and drivers' original residence. Young drivers and outsiders have a higher injury severity. Therefore it is imperative to enhance the safety education and management on the young drivers who steer heavy duty truck from other cities to Beijing on weekdays. Copyright © 2016 Daping Hospital and the Research Institute of Surgery of the Third Military Medical University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sleep Quality and Motor Vehicle Crashes in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Pizza, Fabio; Contardi, Sara; Antognini, Alessandro Baldi; Zagoraiou, Maroussa; Borrotti, Matteo; Mostacci, Barbara; Mondini, Susanna; Cirignotta, Fabio

2010-01-01

Study Objectives: Sleep-related complaints are common in adolescents, but their impact on the rate of motor vehicle crashes accidents is poorly known. We studied subjective sleep quality, driving habits, and self-reported car crashes in high-school adolescents. Methods: Self-administered questionnaires (with items exploring driving habits) were distributed to 339 students who had a driver's license and attended 1 of 7 high schools in Bologna, Italy. Statistical analysis were performed to describe lifestyle habits, sleep quality, sleepiness, and their relationship with the binary dependent variable (presence or absence of car crashes) to identify the factors significantly affecting the probability of car crashes in a multivariate binary logistic regression model. Results: Nineteen percent of the sample reported bad sleep, 64% complained of daytime sleepiness, and 40% reported sleepiness while driving. Eighty students (24%), 76% of which were males, reported that they had already crashed at least once, and 15% considered sleepiness to have been the main cause of their crash. As compared with adolescents who had not had a crash, those who had at least 1 previous crash reported that they more frequently used to drive (79% vs 62%), drove at night (25% vs 9%), drove while sleepy (56% vs 35%), had bad sleep (29% vs 16%), and used stimulants such as caffeinated soft drinks (32% vs 19%), tobacco (54% vs 27%), and drugs (21% vs 7%). The logistic procedure established a significant predictive role of male sex (p < 0.0001; odds ratio = 3.3), tobacco use (p < 0.0001; odds ratio = 3.2), sleepiness while driving (p = 0.010; odds ratio = 2.1), and bad sleep (p = 0.047; odds ratio = 1.9) for the crash risk. Conclusions: Our results confirm the high prevalence of sleep-related complaints among adolescents and highlight their independent role on self-reported crash risk. Citation: Pizza F; Contardi S; Baldi Antognini A; Zagoraiou M; Borrotti M; Mostacci B; Mondini S; Cirignotta F. Sleep quality and motor vehicle crashes in adolescents. J Clin Sleep Med 2010;6(1):41-45. PMID:20191936

Analysis of spatial variations in the effectiveness of graduated driver's licensing (GDL) program in the state of Michigan.

PubMed

Chen, Yu; Berrocal, Veronica J; Bingham, C Raymond; Song, Peter X K

2014-04-01

Injury resulting from motor vehicle crashes is the leading cause of death among teenagers in the US. Few programs or policies have been found to be effective in reducing the risk of fatal car crashes for young novice drivers. One effective policy that has been widely implemented is Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL). Published articles have mostly reported on the temporal effectiveness of GDL in the US. This article reports on the development of spatial statistical modeling approaches to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of GDL policy across eighty-three counties in the state of Michigan. Data were gathered from several publicly available databases, including the US Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and US Department of Agriculture. To account for spatial dependence among crash counts from adjacent counties we invoke spatial random effects, which we provide with a Conditionally AutoRegressive (CAR) prior. Our analysis confirms previous findings that GDL in Michigan is an effective policy that significantly reduces the risk of fatal car crashes among novice teenage drivers. In addition, it indicates that rurality is an important contextual variable associated with spatial differences in GDL effectiveness across the state of Michigan. Finally, our findings provide information that can be used to strengthen GDL policy and its implementation to further enhance teenage-driver safety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Motorcycle helmets and cervical spine injuries: a 5-year experience at a Level 1 trauma center.

PubMed

Page, Paul S; Wei, Zhikui; Brooks, Nathaniel P

2018-06-01

OBJECTIVE Motorcycle helmets have been shown to decrease the incidence and severity of traumatic brain injury due to motorcycle crashes. Despite this proven efficacy, some previous reports and speculation suggest that helmet use is associated with a higher likelihood of cervical spine injury (CSI). In this study, the authors examine 1061 cases of motorcycle crash victims who were treated during a 5-year period at a Level 1 trauma center to investigate the association of helmet use with the incidence and severity of CSI. The authors hypothesized that wearing a motorcycle helmet during a motorcycle crash is not associated with an increased risk of CSI and may provide some protective advantage to the wearer. METHODS The authors performed a retrospective review of all cases in which the patient had been involved in a motorcycle crash and was evaluated at a single Level 1 trauma center in Wisconsin between January 1, 2010, and January 1, 2015. Biometric, clinical, and imaging data were obtained from a trauma registry database. The patients were then divided into 2 distinct groups based on whether or not they were wearing helmets at the time of the accident. Baseline and functional characteristics were compared between the 2 groups. The Student t-test was used for continuous variables, and Pearson's chi-square analysis was used for categorical variables. RESULTS In total, 1061 patient charts were examined containing data on 738 unhelmeted (69.6%) and 323 helmeted (30.4%) motorcycle riders. On average, helmeted riders had a much lower Injury Severity Score (p < 0.001). Cervical spine injury occurred in 114 unhelmeted riders (15.4%) compared with only 24 helmeted riders (7.4%) (p < 0.001), with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.3 (95% CI 1.44-3.61, p = 0.0005). In the unhelmeted group, 10.8% of patients were found to have a cervical spine fracture compared with only 4.6% of patients in the helmeted group (p = 0.001). Additionally, ligamentous injury occurred more frequently in unhelmeted riders (1.9% vs 0.3%, p = 0.04). No difference was found in the occurrence of cervical strain, cord contusion, or nerve root injury (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS The results of this study demonstrate a statistically significant lower likelihood of suffering a CSI among helmeted motorcyclists. Unhelmeted riders sustained a statistically significant higher number of vertebral fractures and ligamentous injuries. The study findings reported here confirm the authors' hypothesis that helmet use does not increase the risk of developing a cervical spine fracture and may provide some protective advantage.

Effectiveness of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in reducing crashes, the first cross-national study.

PubMed

Rizzi, Matteo; Strandroth, Johan; Kullgren, Anders; Tingvall, Claes; Fildes, Brian

2015-01-01

This study set out to evaluate the effectiveness of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in reducing real-life crashes. Since the European Parliament has voted on legislation making ABS mandatory on all new motorcycles over 125 cc from 2016, the fitment rate in Europe is likely to increase in the coming years. Though previous research has focused on mostly large displacement motorcycles, this study used police reports from Spain (2006-2009), Italy (2009), and Sweden (2003-2012) in order to analyze a wide range of motorcycles, including scooters, and compare countries with different motorcycling habits. The statistical analysis used odds ratio calculations with an induced exposure approach. Previous research found that head-on crashes were the least ABS-affected crash type and was therefore used as the nonsensitive crash type for ABS in these calculations. The same motorcycle models, with and without ABS, were compared and the calculations were carried out for each country separately. Crashes involving only scooters were further analyzed. The effectiveness of motorcycle ABS in reducing injury crashes ranged from 24% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12-36) in Italy to 29% (95% CI, 20-38) in Spain, and 34% (95% CI, 16-52) in Sweden. The reductions in severe and fatal crashes were even greater, at 34% (95% CI, 24-44) in Spain and 42% (95% CI, 23-61) in Sweden. The overall reductions of crashes involving ABS-equipped scooters (at least 250 cc) were 27% (95% CI, 12-42) in Italy and 22% (95% CI, 2-42) in Spain. ABS on scooters with at least a 250 cc engine reduced severe and fatal crashes by 31% (95% CI, 12-50), based on Spanish data alone. At this stage, there is more than sufficient scientific-based evidence to support the implementation of ABS on all motorcycles, even light ones. Further research should aim at understanding the injury mitigating effects of motorcycle ABS, possibly in combination with combined braking systems.

A full Bayes before-after study accounting for temporal and spatial effects: Evaluating the safety impact of new signal installations.

PubMed

Sacchi, Emanuele; Sayed, Tarek; El-Basyouny, Karim

2016-09-01

Recently, important advances in road safety statistics have been brought about by methods able to address issues other than the choice of the best error structure for modeling crash data. In particular, accounting for spatial and temporal interdependence, i.e., the notion that the collision occurrence of a site or unit times depend on those of others, has become an important issue that needs further research. Overall, autoregressive models can be used for this purpose as they can specify that the output variable depends on its own previous values and on a stochastic term. Spatial effects have been investigated and applied mostly in the context of developing safety performance functions (SPFs) to relate crash occurrence to highway characteristics. Hence, there is a need for studies that attempt to estimate the effectiveness of safety countermeasures by including the spatial interdependence of road sites within the context of an observational before-after (BA) study. Moreover, the combination of temporal dynamics and spatial effects on crash frequency has not been explored in depth for SPF development. Therefore, the main goal of this research was to carry out a BA study accounting for spatial effects and temporal dynamics in evaluating the effectiveness of a road safety treatment. The countermeasure analyzed was the installation of traffic signals at unsignalized urban/suburban intersections in British Columbia (Canada). The full Bayes approach was selected as the statistical framework to develop the models. The results demonstrated that zone variation was a major component of total crash variability and that spatial effects were alleviated by clustering intersections together. Finally, the methodology used also allowed estimation of the treatment's effectiveness in the form of crash modification factors and functions with time trends. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geospatial and machine learning techniques for wicked social science problems: analysis of crash severity on a regional highway corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Effati, Meysam; Thill, Jean-Claude; Shabani, Shahin

2015-04-01

The contention of this paper is that many social science research problems are too "wicked" to be suitably studied using conventional statistical and regression-based methods of data analysis. This paper argues that an integrated geospatial approach based on methods of machine learning is well suited to this purpose. Recognizing the intrinsic wickedness of traffic safety issues, such approach is used to unravel the complexity of traffic crash severity on highway corridors as an example of such problems. The support vector machine (SVM) and coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) algorithms are tested as inferential engines to predict crash severity and uncover spatial and non-spatial factors that systematically relate to crash severity, while a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the relative influence of crash severity factors. Different specifications of the two methods are implemented, trained, and evaluated against crash events recorded over a 4-year period on a regional highway corridor in Northern Iran. Overall, the SVM model outperforms CANFIS by a notable margin. The combined use of spatial analysis and artificial intelligence is effective at identifying leading factors of crash severity, while explicitly accounting for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity effects. Thanks to the demonstrated effectiveness of a sensitivity analysis, this approach produces comprehensive results that are consistent with existing traffic safety theories and supports the prioritization of effective safety measures that are geographically targeted and behaviorally sound on regional highway corridors.

US Commercial Air Tour Crashes, 2000–2011: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and FIA Score Validation

PubMed Central

Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Beaty, Leland P.; Baker, Susan P.

2013-01-01

Introduction This study provides new public health data concerning the US commercial air tour industry. Risk factors for fatality in air tour crashes were analyzed to determine the value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes. Methods Using the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and National Transportation Safety Board data, the incidence of commercial air tour crashes from 2000 through 2010 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes occurring from 2000 through 2011 were analyzed using regression methods. The FIA score, Li and Baker’s fatality risk index, was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The industry-wide commercial air tour crash rate was 2.7 per 100,000 flight hours. The incidence rates of Part 91 and 135 commercial air tour crashes were 3.4 and 2.3 per 100,000 flight hours, respectively (relative risk [RR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–2.1, P=0.015). Of the 152 air tour crashes that occurred from 2000 through 2011, 30 (20%) involved at least one fatality and, on average, 3.5 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with three major risk factors: fire (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.1, 95% CI 1.5–16.7, P=0.008), instrument meteorological conditions (AOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.1–26.4, P=0.038), and off-airport location (AOR 7.2, 95% CI 1.6–33.2, P=0.011). The area under the FIA Score’s ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.88). Discussion Commercial air tour crash rates were high relative to similar commercial aviation operations. Disparities between Part 91 and 135 air tour crash rates reflect regulatory disparities that require FAA action. The FIA Score appeared to be a valid measurement of fatal risk in air tour crashes. The FIA should prioritize interventions that address the three major risk factors identified by this study. PMID:23631935

An Experiment to Evaluate Transfer of Upset-Recovery Training Conducted Using Two Different Flight Simulation Devices

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

air transport operations, causing almost 25% of all crashes and nearly 40% of all fatalities.1 During the years 1991 - 2000, statistics for general...several reports result from research at the Calspan In-Flight Upset-Recovery Training Program in Roswell , Nm.5 a second set of articles focuses on...resulted in air transport upsets leading to uncontrolled crashes . gawron used Calspan’s Learjet to test five groups of airline pilots with varying

Safer Roads Owing to Higher Gasoline Prices: How Long It Takes

PubMed Central

Brown, Willie; Zhang, Xiang; Zheng, Yanbing

2015-01-01

Objectives. We investigated how much time passes before gasoline price changes affect traffic crashes. Methods. We systematically examined 2004 to 2012 Mississippi traffic crash data by age, gender, and race. Control variables were unemployment rate, seat belt use, alcohol consumption, climate, and temporal and seasonal variations. Results. We found a positive association between higher gasoline prices and safer roads. Overall, gasoline prices affected crashes 9 to 10 months after a price change. This finding was generally consistent across age, gender, and race, with some exceptions. For those aged 16 to 19 years, gasoline price increases had an immediate (although statistically weak) effect and a lagged effect, but crashes involving those aged 25 to 34 years was seemingly unaffected by price changes. For older individuals (≥ 75 years), the lagged effect was stronger and lasted longer than did that of other age groups. Conclusions. The results have important health policy implications for using gasoline prices and taxes to improve traffic safety. PMID:26066946

Safer Roads Owing to Higher Gasoline Prices: How Long It Takes.

PubMed

Chi, Guangqing; Brown, Willie; Zhang, Xiang; Zheng, Yanbing

2015-08-01

We investigated how much time passes before gasoline price changes affect traffic crashes. We systematically examined 2004 to 2012 Mississippi traffic crash data by age, gender, and race. Control variables were unemployment rate, seat belt use, alcohol consumption, climate, and temporal and seasonal variations. We found a positive association between higher gasoline prices and safer roads. Overall, gasoline prices affected crashes 9 to 10 months after a price change. This finding was generally consistent across age, gender, and race, with some exceptions. For those aged 16 to 19 years, gasoline price increases had an immediate (although statistically weak) effect and a lagged effect, but crashes involving those aged 25 to 34 years was seemingly unaffected by price changes. For older individuals (≥ 75 years), the lagged effect was stronger and lasted longer than did that of other age groups. The results have important health policy implications for using gasoline prices and taxes to improve traffic safety.

The effectiveness of air bags.

PubMed

Barry, S; Ginpil, S; O'Neill, T J

1999-11-01

Previous research has shown that the installation of air bags in vehicles significantly reduces crash related deaths, but these analyses have used statistical techniques which have not been capable of controlling for other major determinants of crash survival. This study analysed data from the US FARS database of fatal crashes using conditional logistic regression which is simultaneously able to estimate occupant protection effects for a range of variables. Results of the analysis provided a comparative quantification of both the effect of the air bag as well as other well known determinants of occupant crash survival (age, seat belt use, and gender). When potentially confounding variables were controlled, both the driver and passenger side air bag devices were shown to significantly reduce the probability of death in direct frontal collisions, but the effect size calculated was small compared to the effect of the seat belt. The effect size may also be very small in absolute terms depending on the severity of the crash involved. Given the limited benefit of the air bag, efforts to promote air bags seem particularly difficult to justify in countries such as the United States where the vastly superior occupant protection of the seat belt is under-utilised.

The use of generalized estimating equations in the analysis of motor vehicle crash data.

PubMed

Hutchings, Caroline B; Knight, Stacey; Reading, James C

2003-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if it is necessary to use generalized estimating equations (GEEs) in the analysis of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries in motor vehicle crashes. The 1992 Utah crash dataset was used, excluding crash participants where seat belt use was not appropriate (n=93,633). The model used in the 1996 Report to Congress [Report to congress on benefits of safety belts and motorcycle helmets, based on data from the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES). National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA, Washington, DC, February 1996] was analyzed for all occupants with logistic regression, one level of nesting (occupants within crashes), and two levels of nesting (occupants within vehicles within crashes) to compare the use of GEEs with logistic regression. When using one level of nesting compared to logistic regression, 13 of 16 variance estimates changed more than 10%, and eight of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10%. In addition, three of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant (alpha=0.05). With the use of two levels of nesting, two of 16 variance estimates and three of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10% from the variance and parameter estimates in one level of nesting. One of the independent variables changed from insignificant to significant (alpha=0.05) in the two levels of nesting model; therefore, only two of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant when the logistic regression model was compared to the two levels of nesting model. The odds ratio of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries was 12% lower when a one-level nested model was used. Based on these results, we stress the need to use a nested model and GEEs when analyzing motor vehicle crash data.

Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities in 2009 : a brief statistical summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

statistical projection of traffic fatalities in 2009 shows that an estimated 33,963 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decline of about 8.9 percent as compared to the 37,261 fatalities that occurred in 2008, as shown in T...

The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

2017-03-01

The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

Benefits of Australian Design Rule 69 (full frontal crash protection) and airbags in frontal crashes in Australia.

PubMed

Fitzharris, Michael; Fildes, Brian; Newstead, Stuart; Logan, David

2004-01-01

In-depth data at MUARC was used to evaluate the Australian Design Rule 69 (ADR69) - Full frontal dynamic crash requirement, as well as the effectiveness of frontal airbag deployment on injury risk and associated cost of injury. ADR69 was introduced in Australia in mid-1995 and was based largely on the US equivalent FMVSS-208. The results indicate reductions in excess of 90% in the likelihood of sustaining AIS 2+ injuries in body regions where frontal airbags would be expected to benefit. The average injury cost savings for drivers of post-ADR69 manufactured vehicles was found to be up to AUD19,000 dollars depending on body region considered. Limitations and implications of these findings are discussed.

Benefits of Australian Design Rule 69 (full frontal crash protection) and airbags in frontal crashes in Australia

PubMed Central

Fitzharris, Michael; Fildes, Brian; Newstead, Stuart; Logan, David

2004-01-01

In-depth data at MUARC was used to evaluate the Australian Design Rule 69 (ADR69) - Full frontal dynamic crash requirement, as well as the effectiveness of frontal airbag deployment on injury risk and associated cost of injury. ADR69 was introduced in Australia in mid-1995 and was based largely on the US equivalent FMVSS-208. The results indicate reductions in excess of 90% in the likelihood of sustaining AIS 2+ injuries in body regions where frontal airbags would be expected to benefit. The average injury cost savings for drivers of post-ADR69 manufactured vehicles was found to be up to AUD$19,000 depending on body region considered. Limitations and implications of these findings are discussed.

Potential Occupant Injury Reduction in Pre-Crash System Equipped Vehicles in the Striking Vehicle of Rear-end Crashes

PubMed Central

Kusano, Kristofer D.; Gabler, Hampton C.

2010-01-01

To mitigate the severity of rear-end and other collisions, Pre-Crash Systems (PCS) are being developed. These active safety systems utilize radar and/or video cameras to determine when a frontal crash, such as a front-to-back rear-end collisions, is imminent and can brake autonomously, even with no driver input. Of these PCS features, the effects of autonomous pre-crash braking are estimated. To estimate the maximum potential for injury reduction due to autonomous pre-crash braking in the striking vehicle of rear-end crashes, a methodology is presented for determining 1) the reduction in vehicle crash change in velocity (ΔV) due to PCS braking and 2) the number of injuries that could be prevented due to the reduction in collision severity. Injury reduction was only performed for belted drivers, as unbelted drivers have an unknown risk of being thrown out of position. The study was based on 1,406 rear-end striking vehicles from NASS / CDS years 1993 to 2008. PCS parameters were selected from realistic values and varied to examine the effect on system performance. PCS braking authority was varied from 0.5 G’s to 0.8 G’s while time to collision (TTC) was held at 0.45 seconds. TTC was then varied from 0.3 second to 0.6 seconds while braking authority was held constant at 0.6 G’s. A constant braking pulse (step function) and ramp-up braking pulse were used. The study found that automated PCS braking could reduce the crash ΔV in rear-end striking vehicles by an average of 12% – 50% and avoid 0% – 14% of collisions, depending on PCS parameters. Autonomous PCS braking could potentially reduce the number of injured drivers who are belted by 19% to 57%. PMID:21050603

Balloon crash damage and injuries: an analysis of 86 accidents, 2000-2004.

PubMed

de Voogt, Alexander J; van Doorn, Robert R A

2006-05-01

General aviation accounts for the majority of aviation crashes and casualties in the United States. The role of ballooning in these statistics is not regularly studied. Since 2001, the National Transportation and Safety Board has made its accident reports more readily available, which presents opportunities for further study. This study analyzes and compares a 5-yr period of accident reports and includes an analysis of injuries and balloon damage in hot-air and gas balloon accidents. Balloon crash 2-page briefs and 5-page accident reports published by the National Transportation and Safety Board for the 5-yr time period 2000-2004 were examined. Data collected in the investigation of these crashes were analyzed and compared with the epidemiological data collected in earlier research. In 86 crashes during a 5-yr period, there were 4 fatalities and 75 people were seriously injured. Only one accident was reported involving a student pilot. Broken ankles and legs have been the most commonly recorded serious injury, but could not be linked to the severity of damage to the balloon. The absence of student pilot accidents may be explained by possible stricter supervision. Balloon basket and envelopes appear of sufficient quality to withstand crashes, but improving the protection of passengers during hard landings should help to decrease the number of serious injuries in ballooning.

The role of intersection and street design on severity of bicycle-motor vehicle crashes

PubMed Central

Verma, Santosh; Mekary, Rania A; Courtney, Theodore K; Christiani, David C

2017-01-01

Background Safety concerns are a major barrier to cycling. Intersection and street design variables such as intersection angles and street width might contribute to the severity of crashes and the safety concerns. In this study we examined whether these design variables were associated with bicycle-motor vehicle crashes (BMVC) severity. Methods Using the geographical information system and latitudes/longitudes recorded by the police using a global positioning device, we extracted intersection angles, street width, bicycle facilities, posted speed limits and annual average daily traffic from 3266 BMVC data from New York City police records. Additional variables about BMVC, including age and sex of the bicyclist, time of the day, road surface conditions, road character, vehicle type and injury severity, were obtained from police reports. Injury severity was classified as severe (incapacitating or killed) or non-severe (non-incapacitating, possible injury). The associations between injury severity and environment design variables were examined using multivariate log-binomial regression model. Findings Compared with crashes at orthogonal intersections, crashes at non-orthogonal intersections had 1.37 times (95% CI 1.05 to 1.80) and non-intersection street segments had 1.31 times (95% CI 1.01 to 1.70) higher risk of a severe injury. Crashes that involved a truck or a bus were twice as likely to result in a severe injury outcome; street width was not significantly associated with injury severity. Conclusion Crashes at non-orthogonal intersections and non-intersection segments are more likely to result in higher injury severity. The findings can be used to improve road design and develop effective safety interventions. PMID:27881469

Technological solutions for an effective health surveillance system for road traffic crashes in Burkina Faso

PubMed Central

Bonnet, Emmanuel; Nikiéma, Aude; Traoré, Zoumana; Sidbega, Salifou; Ridde, Valéry

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: In the early 2000s, electronic surveillance systems began to be developed to collect and transmit data on infectious diseases in low-income countries (LICs) in real-time using mobile technologies. Such surveillance systems, however, are still very rare in Africa. Among the non-infectious epidemics to be surveilled are road traffic injuries, which constitute major health events and are the fifth leading cause of mortality in Africa. This situation also prevails in Burkina Faso, whose capital city, Ouagadougou, is much afflicted by this burden. There is no surveillance system, but there have been occasional surveys, and media reports of fatal crashes are numerous and increasing in frequency. Objective: The objective of this article is to present the methodology and implementation of, and quality of results produced by, a prototype of a road traffic crash and trauma surveillance system in the city of Ouagadougou. Methods: A surveillance system was deployed in partnership with the National Police over a six-month period, from February to July 2015, across the entire city of Ouagadougou. Data were collected by all seven units of the city’s National Police road crash intervention service. They were equipped with geotracers that geolocalized the crash sites and sent their positions by SMS (short message service) to a surveillance platform developed using the open-source tool Ushahidi. Descriptive statistical analyses and spatial analyses (kernel density) were subsequently performed on the data collected. Results: The process of data collection by police officers functioned well. Researchers were able to validate the data collection on road crashes by comparing the number of entries in the platform against the number of reports completed by the crash intervention teams. In total, 873 crash scenes were recorded over 3 months. The system was accessible on the Internet for open consultation of the map of crash sites. Crash-concentration analyses were produced that identified ‘hot spots’ in the city. Nearly 80% of crashes involved two-wheeled vehicles. Crashes were more numerous at night and during rush hours. They occurred primarily at intersections with traffic lights. With regard to health impacts, half of the injured were under the age of 29 years, and 6 persons were killed. Conclusions: This pilot study demonstrated the feasibility of developing simple surveillance systems, based on mHealth, in LICs. PMID:28574303

Motor vehicle crashes during pregnancy and cerebral palsy during infancy: a longitudinal cohort analysis.

PubMed

Redelmeier, Donald A; Naqib, Faisal; Thiruchelvam, Deva; R Barrett, Jon F

2016-09-20

To assess the incidence of cerebral palsy among children born to mothers who had their pregnancy complicated by a motor vehicle crash. Retrospective longitudinal cohort analysis of children born from 1 April 2002 to 31 March 2012 in Ontario, Canada. Cases defined as pregnancies complicated by a motor vehicle crash and controls as remaining pregnancies with no crash. Subsequent diagnosis of cerebral palsy by age 3 years. A total of 1 325 660 newborns were analysed, of whom 7933 were involved in a motor vehicle crash during pregnancy. A total of 2328 were subsequently diagnosed with cerebral palsy, equal to an absolute risk of 1.8 per 1000 newborns. For the entire cohort, motor vehicle crashes correlated with a 29% increased risk of subsequent cerebral palsy that was not statistically significant (95% CI -16 to +110, p=0.274). The increased risk was only significant for those with preterm birth who showed an 89% increased risk of subsequent cerebral palsy associated with a motor vehicle crash (95% CI +7 to +266, p=0.037). No significant increase was apparent for those with a term delivery (95% CI -62 to +79, p=0.510). A propensity score-matched analysis of preterm births (n=4384) yielded a 138% increased relative risk of cerebral palsy associated with a motor vehicle crash (95% CI +27 to +349, p=0.007), equal to an absolute increase of about 10.9 additional cases per 1000 newborns (18.2 vs 7.3, p=0.010). Motor vehicle crashes during pregnancy may be associated with an increased risk of cerebral palsy among the subgroup of cases with preterm birth. The increase highlights a specific role for traffic safety advice in prenatal care. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Comparison between Euro NCAP test results and real-world crash data.

PubMed

Kullgren, Anders; Lie, Anders; Tingvall, Claes

2010-12-01

The objective of this study was 2-fold: first, to compare Euro NCAP safety ratings of cars with those published by the Folksam real-world injury ratings; and second, to compare injury risk measures between Euro NCAP 2 and 5 Star cars with real-world injury and disability outcomes using police and insurance injury data. Car models were grouped according to the Euro NCAP star rating scores. Folksam risk of injury ratings come from statistical analysis of real-world crashes using police and insurance databases. The paired comparison method using 2-car crashes was used to control for crash speed and the mass differences between cars of different weights were normalized. For all comparisons, 5-star rated Euro NCAP cars were found to have a lower risk of injury compared to 2-star rated cars (5-star cars were 10% ± 2.5% lower risk than 2-star cars). For fatal and serious injuries, the difference was 23 ± 8 percent, and for fatal injuries alone the difference was 68 ± 32 percent. By comparison, the Folksam 5-star rated cars had a relative risk of 0.020 ± 0.0024, whereas 2-star rated car risk was 0.028 ± 0.0016, corresponding to a 27 percent difference in risk between 5- and 2-star cars. Good correlation was found between Euro NCAP test results and real-world injury outcomes. The largest difference in injury risk between 2- and 5-star rated cars in Euro NCAP was found for risk of fatality, confirming that car manufacturers have focused their safety performance on serious crash outcomes. In addition, Euro NCAP crash tests were shown to be highly correlated with serious crash performance, confirming their relevance for evaluating real-world crash performance. Good concordance was found between Euro NCAP and Folksam real-world crash and injury ratings.

Lunar Proton Albedo Anomalies: Soil, Surveyors, and Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, J. K.; Schwadron, N.; Spence, H. E.; Case, A. W.; Golightly, M. J.; Jordan, A.; Looper, M. D.; Petro, N. E.; Robinson, M. S.; Stubbs, T. J.; Zeitlin, C. J.; Blake, J. B.; Kasper, J. C.; Mazur, J. E.; Smith, S. S.; Townsend, L. W.

2014-12-01

Since the launch of LRO in 2009, the CRaTER instrument has been mapping albedo protons (~100 MeV) from the Moon. These protons are produced by nuclear spallation, a consequence of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) bombardment of the lunar regolith. Just as spalled neutrons and gamma rays reveal elemental abundances in the lunar regolith, albedo protons may be a complimentary method for mapping compositional variations. We presently find that the lunar maria have an average proton yield 0.9% ±0.3% higher than the average yield in the highlands; this is consistent with neutron data that is sensitive to the regolith's average atomic weight. We also see cases where two or more adjacent pixels (15° × 15°) have significantly anomalous yields above or below the mean. These include two high-yielding regions in the maria, and three low-yielding regions in the far-side highlands. Some of the regions could be artifacts of Poisson noise, but for completeness we consider possible effects from compositional anomalies in the lunar regolith, including pyroclastic flows, antipodes of fresh craters, and so-called "red spots". We also consider man-made landers and crash sites that may have brought elements not normally found in the lunar regolith.

Safer Vehicles for People and the Planet: Letter to the Editor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Thomas P; Wenzel, Thomas P; Ross, Marc

Letter to the Editors from Leonard Evans, Bloomfield Hills, MI: Single-vehicle crashes, which account for half of occupant fatalities, are not mentioned in 'Safer Vehicles for People and the Planet', by Thomas P. Wenzel and Marc Ross (March-April). Simple physics shows that in such crashes risk declines as vehicle mass increases. The authors write 'driving imported luxury cars carries extremely low risk, for reasons that are not obvious'. The reasons are obvious--the cars are purchased by low-risk drivers. If they swapped vehicles with drivers of sports cars (which have high risk), the risks would stick with the drivers, not themore » vehicles. The article reflects the American belief that death on our roads can be substantially reduced by making vehicles in which it is safer to crash. From 1979 through 2002, Great Britain, Canada and Australia reduced fatalities by an average of 49 percent, compared with 16 percent in the U.S. Accumulating the differences over this time shows that by merely matching the safety performance of these other countries, about 200,000 fewer Americans would have died. These trends continue. In 2006 the U.S. recorded 42,642 traffic deaths, a modest 22 percent decline from our all-time high. Sweden recorded 445, a reduction of 66 percent from their all-time high. The obsessive focus on vehicles rather than on countermeasures that scientific research shows substantially reduce risk is at the core of our dramatic safety failure. The only way to substantially reduce deaths is to reduce the risk of crashing, not to make it safer to crash. The response from Drs. Wenzel and Ross: Of course Dr. Evans is correct in stating that driver behavior influences crash risk. In our article we made clear that our estimates of risk include how well a vehicle/driver combination avoids a crash, as well as how crash-worthy a vehicle (and robust a driver) is once a crash occurs. We also analyzed two variables that can account for driver behavior: the fraction of all driver fatalities that are young men, and a 'bad driver' rating that combines information about the current crash (drug or alcohol involvement, driving without a license, or reckless driving) as well as the operator's driving record for the previous three years. For example, the high risks of sports cars, and the low risks of minivans, are clearly influenced by who drives these types of vehicles (36 percent young males and 0.77 bad driver rating for sports cars, vs. 4 percent and 0.21 for minivans; the average values for all types of cars are 20 percent and 0.50). On the other hand, we were surprised to find that the imported luxury cars, with the lowest risks, have only average drivers (21 percent young males, 0.57 bad driver rating). That is the basis for our conclusion that the design of imported luxury vehicles, or at least specific safety features on them, overcome risky behavior taken by their drivers. The safety of vehicles has greatly improved over the years. In our studies we have found several examples of models that greatly reduced their risks over time; for example, the Ford Focus has a much better risk to its drivers (118) than the Ford Escort it replaced (148). Our data indicate that more young males drive the Focus (21 percent) than the Escort (15 percent), and that Focus drivers are perhaps slightly more risky (0.50 vs. 0.44 bad driver rating). Clearly vehicle design does not play as small a role in vehicle safety as Dr. Evans suggests. Dr. Evans asserts that we ignore single-vehicle crashes and that simple physics dictates that vehicle mass provides safety in single-vehicle crashes. By itself, additional vehicle mass does provide some protection from rapid deceleration in crashes with a movable object, particularly for an unbelted occupant. However, when it comes to vehicle safety, our research by vehicle model indicates that there is essentially no relationship between car mass and risk, even in frontal crashes. In his own papers, Dr. Evans appears to admit that it is not clear whether mass, or size (specifically crush space) is inherent to vehicle safety. Additional research indicates that it is not size per se that protects in two-vehicle crashes, but how well the stiff structures on the vehicles are aligned. The auto manufacturing industry has voluntarily made design changes to their pickup trucks to increase the likelihood that truck and car bumpers will interact in a frontal crash, reducing the aggressivity of pickup trucks in recent years. Regarding the differences in experiences between the U.S. and other countries, it is important to keep in mind that the U.S. vehicle fleet is fairly unique; about half of U.S. vehicles are light duty trucks (pickups, SUVs and minivans), which many studies have shown are dangerous to other road users.« less

Adverse weather conditions and fatal motor vehicle crashes in the United States, 1994-2012.

PubMed

Saha, Shubhayu; Schramm, Paul; Nolan, Amanda; Hess, Jeremy

2016-11-08

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of injury mortality. Adverse weather and road conditions have the potential to affect the likelihood of motor vehicle fatalities through several pathways. However, there remains a dearth of assessments associating adverse weather conditions to fatal crashes in the United States. We assessed trends in motor vehicle fatalities associated with adverse weather and present spatial variation in fatality rates by state. We analyzed the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) datasets from 1994 to 2012 produced by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that contains reported weather information for each fatal crash. For each year, we estimated the fatal crashes that were associated with adverse weather conditions. We stratified these fatalities by months to examine seasonal patterns. We calculated state-specific rates using annual vehicle miles traveled data for all fatalities and for those related to adverse weather to examine spatial variations in fatality rates. To investigate the role of adverse weather as an independent risk factor for fatal crashes, we calculated odds ratios for known risk factors (e.g., alcohol and drug use, no restraint use, poor driving records, poor light conditions, highway driving) to be reported along with adverse weather. Total and adverse weather-related fatalities decreased over 1994-2012. Adverse weather-related fatalities constituted about 16 % of total fatalities on average over the study period. On average, 65 % of adverse weather-related fatalities happened between November and April, with rain/wet conditions more frequently reported than snow/icy conditions. The spatial distribution of fatalities associated with adverse weather by state was different than the distribution of total fatalities. Involvement of alcohol or drugs, no restraint use, and speeding were less likely to co-occur with fatalities during adverse weather conditions. While adverse weather is reported for a large number of motor vehicle fatalities for the US, the type of adverse weather and the rate of associated fatality vary geographically. These fatalities may be addressed and potentially prevented by modifying speed limits during inclement weather, improving road surfacing, ice and snow removal, and providing transit alternatives, but the impact of potential interventions requires further research.

Injury analysis of patients according to impact patterns involved in pedestrian traffic crashes.

PubMed

Lee, Hee Young; Youk, Hyun; Ii Lee, Jeong; Kang, Chan Young; Kong, Joon Seok; Sung, Sil; Kang, In Hye; Lee, Jung Hun; Kim, Oh Hyun; Jung, Woo Jin; Lee, Kang Hyun; Youn, Young Han; Park, Jong Chan

2018-02-28

In cases of car-to-person pedestrian traffic crashes (PTCs), the principal issue is determining at what point the car collided with the pedestrian. Accordingly, the objective of the present study was to use the medical records of patients injured in PTCs to investigate the characteristics of crash types and the areas and injury severity and to determine whether there are differences in injuries due to the angle, motion, and position at the point of impact. The present study examined 231 PTC patients admitted to the emergency room (ER) between January and December 2014. Electronic medical records from the hospital were used to divide the patient data according to Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) codes for injured areas based on sex, age, time of the crash, outcomes after ER treatment, and major symptoms. Among 231 patients, police reports on 67 crash cases, involving 70 people, were obtained with the help of local police departments, and these reports were used to reconstruct details of the actual crash. For statistical analysis, a chi-square test and a one-way analysis of variance calculation were used to compare the Injury Severity Score (ISS) based on groups and stages, with a statistical significance level set to P < .05. With respect to patients who were admitted for PTC, 52.4% were females and 47.6% were males. The frequency of crashes was high in middle-aged and elderly groups, as well as for youths between 10 and 19 years old. With respect to outcomes after ER treatment, discharge to home after symptom improvement was the most common outcome (24.6%). Admissions to the intensive care unit (25.1%) and to the general ward (23.8%) were also high. In terms of major symptoms, the most common injuries were to the head, resulting from a rotatory motion post impact (35.9%), and injuries to the legs, resulting from the impact of a direct collision with an object (25.1%). This study demonstrated that injuries to the chest and abdomen were the most severe in the fender vault group and head and neck injuries were the most severe in the roof vault group. In particular, the Injury Severity Score was highest in the roof vault group.

Pavement markings and safety : tech transfer summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-11-01

Objective: This study explores the statistical relationship between crash occurrence probability and longitudinal pavement marking retroreflectivity. : Problem Statement: Previous research on pavement markings, from a safety perspective, tackled vari...

Translation to Primary Care of an Effective Teen Safe Driving Program for Parents.

PubMed

Shope, Jean T; Zakrajsek, Jennifer S; Finch, Stacia; Bingham, C Raymond; O'Neil, Joseph; Yano, Stephen; Wasserman, Richard; Simons-Morton, Bruce

2016-10-01

Addressing teen driver crashes, this study adapted an effective Checkpoints(TM) program for parents of teen drivers for dissemination by primary care practitioners (PCPs) and the web; distributed the PCP/web program through pediatric practices; and examined dissemination to/implementation by parents. The website, youngDRIVERparenting.org, and brief intervention protocol were developed. PCPs delivered interventions and materials to parents, referred them to the website, and completed follow-up surveys. Google Analytics assessed parents' website use. Most PCPs reported delivering interventions with fidelity, and thought the program important and feasible. Brief interventions/website referrals, averaging 4.4 minutes, were delivered to 3465 (87%) of 3990 eligible parents by 133 PCPs over an 18-week average. Website visits (1453) were made by 42% of parents, who spent on average 3:53 minutes viewing 4.2 topics. This program costs little (its website, training and promotional materials are available) and could be one component of a comprehensive approach to reducing teen driver crashes. © The Author(s) 2016.

Crash and Wait? The impact of the Great Recession on Retirement Planning of Older Americans

PubMed Central

McFall, Brooke Helppie

2012-01-01

This study uses data from pre- and post-crash surveys from the Cognitive Economics study to examine the impact of recent stock and labor market wealth losses on the planned retirement ages of older Americans. Regression estimates imply that the average wealth loss between July 2008 and May/June 2009 is associated with an increase in planned retirement age of approximately 2.5 months. Furthermore, pessimism about future stock market returns is found to amplify the impact of wealth losses on retirement timing. PMID:23413315

Acceptance of drinking and driving and alcohol-involved driving crashes in California.

PubMed

MacLeod, Kara E; Karriker-Jaffe, Katherine J; Ragland, David R; Satariano, William A; Kelley-Baker, Tara; Lacey, John H

2015-08-01

Alcohol-impaired driving accounts for substantial proportion of traffic-related fatalities in the U.S. Risk perceptions for drinking and driving have been associated with various measures of drinking and driving behavior. In an effort to understand how to intervene and to better understand how risk perceptions may be shaped, this study explored whether an objective environmental-level measure (proportion of alcohol-involved driving crashes in one's residential city) were related to individual-level perceptions and behavior. Using data from a 2012 cross-sectional roadside survey of 1147 weekend nighttime drivers in California, individual-level self-reported acceptance of drinking and driving and past-year drinking and driving were merged with traffic crash data using respondent ZIP codes. Population average logistic regression modeling was conducted for the odds of acceptance of drinking and driving and self-reported, past-year drinking and driving. A non-linear relationship between city-level alcohol-involved traffic crashes and individual-level acceptance of drinking and driving was found. Acceptance of drinking and driving did not mediate the relationship between the proportion of alcohol-involved traffic crashes and self-reported drinking and driving behavior. However, it was directly related to behavior among those most likely to drink outside the home. The present study surveys a particularly relevant population and is one of few drinking and driving studies to evaluate the relationship between an objective environmental-level crash risk measure and individual-level risk perceptions. In communities with both low and high proportions of alcohol-involved traffic crashes there was low acceptance of drinking and driving. This may mean that in communities with low proportions of crashes, citizens have less permissive norms around drinking and driving, whereas in communities with a high proportion of crashes, the incidence of these crashes may serve as an environmental cue which informs drinking and driving perceptions. Perceptual information on traffic safety can be used to identify places where people may be at greater risk for drinking and driving. Community-level traffic fatalities may be a salient cue for tailoring risk communication. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acceptance of drinking and driving and alcohol-involved driving crashes in California

PubMed Central

Karriker-Jaffe, Katherine J.; Ragland, David R.; Satariano, William A.; Kelley-Baker, Tara; Lacey, John H.

2016-01-01

Background Alcohol-impaired driving accounts for substantial proportion of traffic-related fatalities in the U.S. Risk perceptions for drinking and driving have been associated with various measures of drinking and driving behavior. In an effort to understand how to intervene and to better understand how risk perceptions may be shaped, this study explored whether an objective environmental-level measure (proportion of alcohol-involved driving crashes in one's residential city) were related to individual-level perceptions and behavior. Methods Using data from a 2012 cross-sectional roadside survey of 1,147 weekend nighttime drivers in California, individual-level self-reported acceptance of drinking and driving and past-year drinking and driving were merged with traffic crash data using respondent ZIP codes. Population average logistic regression modeling was conducted for the odds of acceptance of drinking and driving and self-reported, past-year drinking and driving. Results A non-linear relationship between city-level alcohol-involved traffic crashes and individual-level acceptance of drinking and driving was found. Acceptance of drinking and driving did not mediate the relationship between the proportion of alcohol-involved traffic crashes and self-reported drinking and driving behavior. However, it was directly related to behavior among those most likely to drink outside the home. Discussion The present study surveys a particularly relevant population and is one of few drinking and driving studies to evaluate the relationship between an objective environmental-level crash risk measure and individual-level risk perceptions. In communities with both low and high proportions of alcohol-involved traffic crashes there was low acceptance of drinking and driving. This may mean that in communities with low proportions of crashes, citizens have less permissive norms around drinking and driving, whereas in communities with a high proportion of crashes, the incidence of these crashes may serve as an environmental cue which informs drinking and driving perceptions. Perceptual information on traffic safety can be used to identify places where people may be at greater risk for drinking and driving. Community-level traffic fatalities may be a salient cue for tailoring risk communication. PMID:25980918

Under-reporting bicycle accidents to police in the COST TU1101 international survey: Cross-country comparisons and associated factors.

PubMed

Shinar, D; Valero-Mora, P; van Strijp-Houtenbos, M; Haworth, N; Schramm, A; De Bruyne, Guido; Cavallo, V; Chliaoutakis, J; Dias, J; Ferraro, O E; Fyhri, A; Sajatovic, A Hursa; Kuklane, K; Ledesma, R; Mascarell, O; Morandi, A; Muser, M; Otte, D; Papadakaki, M; Sanmartín, J; Dulf, D; Saplioglu, M; Tzamalouka, G

2018-01-01

Police crash reports are often the main source for official data in many countries. However, with the exception of fatal crashes, crashes are often underreported in a biased manner. Consequently, the countermeasures adopted according to them may be inefficient. In the case of bicycle crashes, this bias is most acute and it probably varies across countries, with some of them being more prone to reporting accidents to police than others. Assessing if this bias occurs and the size of it can be of great importance for evaluating the risks associated with bicycling. This study utilized data collected in the COST TU1101 action "Towards safer bicycling through optimization of bicycle helmets and usage". The data came from an online survey that included questions related to bicyclists' attitudes, behaviour, cycling habits, accidents, and patterns of use of helmets. The survey was filled by 8655 bicyclists from 30 different countries. After applying various exclusion factors, 7015 questionnaires filled by adult cyclists from 17 countries, each with at least 100 valid responses, remained in our sample. The results showed that across all countries, an average of only 10% of all crashes were reported to the police, with a wide range among countries: from a minimum of 0.0% (Israel) and 2.6% (Croatia) to a maximum of a 35.0% (Germany). Some factors associated with the reporting levels were type of crash, type of vehicle involved, and injury severity. No relation was found between the likelihood of reporting and the cyclist's gender, age, educational level, marital status, being a parent, use of helmet, and type of bicycle. The significant under-reporting - including injury crashes that do not lead to hospitalization - justifies the use of self-report survey data for assessment of bicycling crash patterns as they relate to (1) crash risk issues such as location, infrastructure, cyclists' characteristics, and use of helmet and (2) strategic approaches to bicycle crash prevention and injury reduction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities for the first quarter (January-March) of 2009 : a brief statistical summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first quarter of 2009 shows that an estimated 7,689 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decline of about 9 percent as compared to the 8,451 fatalities that occurred in...

Early estimate of motor vehicle traffic fatalities for the first half (January-June) of 2010 : a brief statistical summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first half of : 2010 shows that an estimated 14,996 people died in motor : vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decline of about 9.2 : percent as compared to the 16,509 fatalities that occu...

The effects of roadway characteristics on farm equipment crashes: A GIS approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenan, Mitchell Joseph

Tractors and other self-propelled farm equipment, such as combines, sprayers, and towed grain carts, are often used on public roadways as the primary means for traveling from homestead to homestead or from homestead to a distributer. Increased roadway exposure has led to a growing concern for crashes involving farm equipment on the public roadway. A handful of studies exist examining public roadway crashes involving farm equipment using crash data, but none thus far have evaluated road segment data to identify road-specific risk factors. The objective of this study is to identify if roadway characteristics (traffic density, speed limit, road type, surface type, road width, and shoulder width) affect the risk of a crash involving farm equipment on Iowa public roadways. A retrospective cohort study of Iowa roads was conducted to identify the types of roads that are at an increased risk of having a farm-equipment crash on them. Crash data from the Iowa Department of Transportation (to identify crashes) were spatial linked to Iowa roadway data using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and 95% CL. Out of 319,705 road segments in Iowa, 0.4% segments (n=1,337) had a farm equipment crash from 2005-2011. The odds of having a farm equipment crash were significantly higher for road segments with increased traffic density and speed limit. Roads with an average daily traffic volume of at least 1,251 vehicles were at a 5.53 times greater odds of having a crash than roads with a daily traffic volume between 0-30 vehicles. (CI: 3.90-7.83). Roads with a posted speed limit between 50mph and 60mph were at a 4.88 times greater odds of having a crash than roads with a posted speed limit of 30mph or less. (CI: 3.85-6.20). Specific roadway characteristics such as roadway and shoulder width were also associated with the risk of a crash. For every 5 foot increase in road width, the odds for a crash decreased by 6 percent (CI: 0.89-0.99) and for every 5 foot increase in shoulder width, the odds of a crash decreased by 8 percent. (CI: 0.86-0.98). Although not statically significant, unpaved roads increased the odds of a crash by 17 percent. (CI: 0.91-1.50) Lastly, it was found that Farm to Market routes increased the odds of a crash by two fold compared to local roads (which make up roughly 67 percent of Iowa public roads). (CI: 1.72-2.43) When the same model was stratified by rurality (urban/rural), it was found that high traffic density leads to a higher risk of a crash in rural areas. Iowa routes and Farm to Market routes had a greater odds of a crash in urban than rural areas, and road and shoulder width were more protective in rural than urban areas. When only using roads with a crash involving an injury versus all other roads as the outcome, Iowa routes and roads with increased speed limits had higher odds for an injury-involved crash, while increased road width were more protective against crashes involving injuries. Findings from the study suggest that several roadway characteristics were associated with farm-equipment crashes. Through administrative and engineering controls, the six static explanatory variables used in this study may be modified to decrease the risk of a farm equipment crash. Speed limit can be modified through administrative controls while traffic density, road and shoulder width, road type, and surface type can be modified through engineering controls. Results from this study provide information that will aid policy-makers in developing safer roads for farm equipment.

Who can best influence the quality of teenagers' cars?

PubMed

Keall, Michael D; Newstead, Stuart

2013-01-01

Because young drivers' vehicles have been found to offer poor occupant protection in many countries, this study sought to identify the most appropriate audience for information and publicity designed to change purchasing preferences to improve these vehicles and resultant injury outcomes. An analysis of New Zealand vehicles crashed by drivers aged 19 years or less linked to data on the owner of the vehicle was undertaken. Details on the crashed vehicles were merged with licensing information to identify the owner's age group. It was presumed that most vehicles driven by teens but owned by someone aged 30 to 59 would be owned by a parent of the teen. Only 14 percent of vehicles crashed by teens were owned by teens. Generally, older vehicles with poor crashworthiness were provided for the teenage driver, whatever the age group of the owner. However, cars crashed by teens but owned by their parents were on average almost 2 years younger and had relatively superior crashworthiness than the teenager-owned and crashed vehicles, although their crashworthiness was still poor compared to vehicles driven by older drivers. Evidently, parents are key people in making vehicle purchasing decisions regarding the cars that teenagers drive and should be the main audience for measures to improve the poor secondary safety performance of teenagers' vehicles.

Overcrowded motor vehicle trauma from the smuggling of illegal immigrants in the desert of the Southwest.

PubMed

Lumpkin, Mary F; Judkins, Dan; Porter, John M; Latifi, Rifat; Williams, Mark D

2004-12-01

Overcrowded motor vehicle crashes caused by the very active criminal enterprise of smuggling illegal immigrants in the desert of the Southwest is a recent and under-recognized trauma etiology. A computerized database search from 1990 through 2003 of local newspaper reports of overcrowded motor vehicle crashes along the 281 miles of Arizona's border with Mexico was conducted. This area was covered by two level I trauma centers, but since July 2003 is now served only by the University Medical Center. Each of these crashes involved a single motor vehicle in poor mechanical shape packed with illegal immigrants. Speeding out of control on bad tires, high-speed rollovers result in ejection of most passengers. Since 1999, there have been 38 crashes involving 663 passengers (an average of 17 per vehicle) with an injury rate of 49 per cent and a mortality rate of 9 per cent. This relatively recent phenomenon (no reports from before 1998) of trauma resulting from human smuggling is lethal and demonstrates the smugglers' wanton disregard for human life, particularly when facing apprehension. Even a few innocent bystanders have been killed. These crashes overwhelm a region's trauma resources and must be recognized when planning the distribution of trauma resources to border states.

Critical market crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, D.

2003-04-01

This review presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. We start by discussing the limitation of standard analyses for characterizing how crashes are special. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are “outliers”: they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are “outliers”, they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the narrow confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. A first model posits that the crash hazard drives the market price. The crash hazard may sky-rocket at some times due to the collective behavior of “noise traders”, those who act on little information, even if they think they “know”. A second version inverses the logic and posits that prices drive the crash hazard. Prices may skyrocket at some times again due to the speculative or imitative behavior of investors. According the rational expectation model, this entails automatically a corresponding increase of the probability for a crash. We also review two other models including the competition between imitation and contrarian behavior and between value investors and technical analysts. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets, on currency markets, on company stocks, and so on. We review this discovery at length and demonstrate how to use this insight and the detailed predictions obtained from these models to forecast crashes. For this, we review the major crashes of the past that occurred on the major stock markets of the planet and describe the empirical evidence of the universal nature of the critical log-periodic precursory signature of crashes. The concept of an “anti-bubble” is also summarized, with the Japanese collapse from the beginning of 1991 to present, taken as a prominent example. A prediction issued and advertised in January 1999 has been until recently born out with remarkable precision, predicting correctly several changes of trends, a feat notoriously difficult using standard techniques of economic forecasting. We also summarize a very recent analysis the behavior of the U.S. S&P500 index from 1996 to August 2002 and the forecast for the two following years. We conclude by presenting our view of the organization of financial markets.

Comparison of pregnant and non-pregnant occupant crash and injury characteristics based on national crash data.

PubMed

Manoogian, Sarah

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to provide specific characteristics of injuries and crash characteristics for pregnant occupants from the National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS) database for pregnant women as a group, broken down by trimester, and compared to non-pregnant women. Using all NASS/CDS cases collected between the years 2000 and 2012 with at least one pregnant occupant, the entire pregnant data set included 321,820 vehicles, 324,535 occupants, and 640,804 injuries. The pregnant occupant data were compared to the characteristics of NASS/CDS cases for 14,719,533 non-pregnant females 13-44 years old in vehicle crashes from 2000 to 2012. Sixty five percent of pregnant women were located in the front left seat position and roughly the same percentage of pregnant women was wearing a lap and shoulder belt. The average change in velocity was 11.6 mph for pregnant women and over 50% of crashes for pregnant women were frontal collisions. From these collisions, less than seven percent of pregnant women sustained MAIS 2+ injuries. Minor differences between the pregnant and non-pregnant occupants were identified in the body region and source of injuries sustained. However, the data indicated no large differences in injury or crash characteristics based on trimester of pregnancy. Moreover, the risk of an MAIS 2+ level injury for pregnant occupants is similar to the risk of injury for non-pregnant occupants based on the total vehicle change in velocity. Overall this study provides useful data for researchers to focus future efforts in pregnant occupant research. Additionally, this study reinforces that more detailed and complete data on pregnant crashes needs to be collected to understand the risk for pregnant occupants. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of contributing factors between alcohol related single vehicle motorcycle and car crashes.

PubMed

Maistros, Alexander; Schneider, William H; Savolainen, Peter T

2014-06-01

Alcohol related crashes have accounted for approximately 35% of fatal crashes per year since 1994 nationwide, with approximately 30% involving impairment over the legal blood alcohol content limit of 0.08%. Educational campaigns and law enforcement efforts are two components of multi-faceted programs aimed toward reducing impaired driving. It is crucial that further research be conducted to guide the implementation of enforcement and educational programs. This research attempts to provide such guidance by examining differences in alcohol-involved crashes involving motorcycles and passenger cars. Prior safety research has shown that motorcyclists follow a significantly different culture than the average passenger car operator. These cultural differences may be reflected by differences in the contributing factors affecting crashes and the severity of the resulting injuries sustained by the driver or motorcyclist. This research is focused on single-vehicle crashes only, in order to isolate modal effects from the contribution of additional vehicles. The crash data provided for this study are from the Ohio Department of Public Safety from 2009 through 2012. The injury severity data are analysed through the development of two mixed logit models, one for motorcyclists and one for passenger car drivers. The models quantify the effects of various factors, including horizontal curves, speeds, seatbelt use, and helmet use, which indicate that the required motor skills and balance needed for proper motorcycle operation compounded with a lack of mechanical protection make motorcyclists more prone to severe injuries, particularly on curves and in collisions with roadside objects. The findings of this study have been incorporated into combined motorcycle and sober driving educational safety campaigns. The results have shown to be favorable in supporting national campaign messages with local justification and backing. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A semi-nonparametric Poisson regression model for analyzing motor vehicle crash data.

PubMed

Ye, Xin; Wang, Ke; Zou, Yajie; Lord, Dominique

2018-01-01

This paper develops a semi-nonparametric Poisson regression model to analyze motor vehicle crash frequency data collected from rural multilane highway segments in California, US. Motor vehicle crash frequency on rural highway is a topic of interest in the area of transportation safety due to higher driving speeds and the resultant severity level. Unlike the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model, the semi-nonparametric Poisson regression model can accommodate an unobserved heterogeneity following a highly flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) distribution. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the SNP distribution can well mimic a large family of distributions, including normal distributions, log-gamma distributions, bimodal and trimodal distributions. Empirical estimation results show that such flexibility offered by the SNP distribution can greatly improve model precision and the overall goodness-of-fit. The semi-nonparametric distribution can provide a better understanding of crash data structure through its ability to capture potential multimodality in the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. When estimated coefficients in empirical models are compared, SNP and NB models are found to have a substantially different coefficient for the dummy variable indicating the lane width. The SNP model with better statistical performance suggests that the NB model overestimates the effect of lane width on crash frequency reduction by 83.1%.

Quantifying the impact of adaptive traffic control systems on crash frequency and severity: Evidence from Oakland County, Michigan.

PubMed

Fink, Joshua; Kwigizile, Valerian; Oh, Jun-Seok

2016-06-01

Despite seeing widespread usage worldwide, adaptive traffic control systems have experienced relatively little use in the United States. Of the systems used, the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS) is the most popular in America. Safety benefits of these systems are not as well understood nor as commonly documented. This study investigates the safety benefits of adaptive traffic control systems by using the large SCATS-based system in Oakland County, MI known as FAST-TRAC. This study uses data from FAST-TRAC-controlled intersections in Oakland County and compares a wide variety of geometric, traffic, and crash characteristics to similar intersections in metropolitan areas elsewhere in Michigan. Data from 498 signalized intersections are used to conduct a cross-sectional analysis. Negative binomial models are used to estimate models for three dependent crash variables. Multinomial logit models are used to estimate an injury severity model. A variable tracking the presence of FAST-TRAC controllers at intersections is used in all models to determine if a SCATS-based system has an impact on crash occurrences or crash severity. Estimates show that the presence of SCATS-based controllers at intersections is likely to reduce angle crashes by up to 19.3%. Severity results show a statistically significant increase in non-serious injuries, but not a significant reduction in incapacitating injuries or fatal accidents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Investigation of Influential Factors for Bicycle Crashes Using a Spatiotemporal Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, G.; Sakrani, T.; Cheng, W.; Zhou, J.

2017-09-01

Despite the numerous potential advantages of indulging in bicycling, such as elevation of health and environment along with mitigation of congestion, the cyclists are a vulnerable group of commuters which is exposed to safety risks. This study aims to investigate the explanatory variables at transportation planning level which have a significant impact on the bicycle crashes. To account for the serial changes around the built environment, the linear time trend as well as time-varying coefficients are utilized for the covariates. These model modifications help account for the variations in the environment which may escape the incorporated variables due to lack of robustness in data. Also, to incorporate the interaction of roadway, demographic, and socioeconomic features within a Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ), with the bicycle crashes of that area, a spatial correlation is integrated. This spatial correlation accounts for the spatially structured random effects which capture the unobserved heterogeneity and add towards building more comprehensive model with relatively precise estimates. Two different age groups, the student population in the TAZs, the presence of arterial roads and bike lanes, were observed to be statistically significant variables related with bicycle crashes. These observations will guide the transportation planning organizations which focus on the entity of TAZ while developing policies. The results of the current study establish a quantifies relationship between the significant factors and the crash count which will enable the planners to choose the most cost-efficient, yet most productive, factors which needs to be addressed for mitigation of crashes.

Application of the Hyper-Poisson Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crashes.

PubMed

Khazraee, S Hadi; Sáez-Castillo, Antonio Jose; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Lord, Dominique

2015-05-01

The hyper-Poisson distribution can handle both over- and underdispersion, and its generalized linear model formulation allows the dispersion of the distribution to be observation-specific and dependent on model covariates. This study's objective is to examine the potential applicability of a newly proposed generalized linear model framework for the hyper-Poisson distribution in analyzing motor vehicle crash count data. The hyper-Poisson generalized linear model was first fitted to intersection crash data from Toronto, characterized by overdispersion, and then to crash data from railway-highway crossings in Korea, characterized by underdispersion. The results of this study are promising. When fitted to the Toronto data set, the goodness-of-fit measures indicated that the hyper-Poisson model with a variable dispersion parameter provided a statistical fit as good as the traditional negative binomial model. The hyper-Poisson model was also successful in handling the underdispersed data from Korea; the model performed as well as the gamma probability model and the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model previously developed for the same data set. The advantages of the hyper-Poisson model studied in this article are noteworthy. Unlike the negative binomial model, which has difficulties in handling underdispersed data, the hyper-Poisson model can handle both over- and underdispersed crash data. Although not a major issue for the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model, the effect of each variable on the expected mean of crashes is easily interpretable in the case of this new model. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

A preliminary investigation of the relationships between historical crash and naturalistic driving.

PubMed

Pande, Anurag; Chand, Sai; Saxena, Neeraj; Dixit, Vinayak; Loy, James; Wolshon, Brian; Kent, Joshua D

2017-04-01

This paper describes a project that was undertaken using naturalistic driving data collected via Global Positioning System (GPS) devices to demonstrate a proof-of-concept for proactive safety assessments of crash-prone locations. The main hypothesis for the study is that the segments where drivers have to apply hard braking (higher jerks) more frequently might be the "unsafe" segments with more crashes over a long-term. The linear referencing methodology in ArcMap was used to link the GPS data with roadway characteristic data of US Highway 101 northbound (NB) and southbound (SB) in San Luis Obispo, California. The process used to merge GPS data with quarter-mile freeway segments for traditional crash frequency analysis is also discussed in the paper. A negative binomial regression analyses showed that proportion of high magnitude jerks while decelerating on freeway segments (from the driving data) was significantly related with the long-term crash frequency of those segments. A random parameter negative binomial model with uniformly distributed parameter for ADT and a fixed parameter for jerk provided a statistically significant estimate for quarter-mile segments. The results also indicated that roadway curvature and the presence of auxiliary lane are not significantly related with crash frequency for the highway segments under consideration. The results from this exploration are promising since the data used to derive the explanatory variable(s) can be collected using most off-the-shelf GPS devices, including many smartphones. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Full Bayes Poisson gamma, Poisson lognormal, and zero inflated random effects models: Comparing the precision of crash frequency estimates.

PubMed

Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2013-01-01

In recent years, complex statistical modeling approaches have being proposed to handle the unobserved heterogeneity and the excess of zeros frequently found in crash data, including random effects and zero inflated models. This research compares random effects, zero inflated, and zero inflated random effects models using a full Bayes hierarchical approach. The models are compared not just in terms of goodness-of-fit measures but also in terms of precision of posterior crash frequency estimates since the precision of these estimates is vital for ranking of sites for engineering improvement. Fixed-over-time random effects models are also compared to independent-over-time random effects models. For the crash dataset being analyzed, it was found that once the random effects are included in the zero inflated models, the probability of being in the zero state is drastically reduced, and the zero inflated models degenerate to their non zero inflated counterparts. Also by fixing the random effects over time the fit of the models and the precision of the crash frequency estimates are significantly increased. It was found that the rankings of the fixed-over-time random effects models are very consistent among them. In addition, the results show that by fixing the random effects over time, the standard errors of the crash frequency estimates are significantly reduced for the majority of the segments on the top of the ranking. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seat Integrated and Conventional Restraints: A Study of Crash Injury/Fatality Rates in Rollovers

PubMed Central

Padmanaban, Jeya; Burnett, Roger A.

2008-01-01

This study used police-reported motor vehicle crash data from eleven states to determine ejection, fatality, and fatal/serious injury risks for belted drivers in vehicles with conventional seatbelts compared to belted drivers in vehicles with seat integrated restraint systems (SIRS). Risks were compared for 11,159 belted drivers involved in single- or multiple-vehicle rollover crashes. Simple driver ejection (partial and complete), fatality, and injury rates were derived, and logistic regression analyses were used to determine relative contribution of factors (including event calendar year, vehicle age, driver age/gender/alcohol use) that significantly influence the likelihood of fatality and fatal/serious injury to belted drivers in rollovers. Results show no statistically significant difference in driver ejection, fatality, or fatal/serious injury rates between vehicles with conventional belts and vehicles with SIRS. PMID:19026243

Effectiveness of Collision-Involved Motorcycle Helmets in Thailand

PubMed Central

Wobrock, Jesse; Smith, Terry; Kasantikul, Vira; Whiting, William

2003-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze variables present in selected motorcycle crashes involving helmeted riders to find the best injury predictors. The helmets used in this study were collected from motorcycle crashes in Thailand. Pertinent data were collected, a conventional helmet impact drop test apparatus was used to quantify the head impact forces, and stepwise multiple regression analyses were performed. The results indicate that the geometry of the object impacting the head and GSI were the best predictors for MAIS (R2=.875) while geometry of the object, liner thickness and impact energy were the best predictors for ISS (R2=.911). Analysis of motor vehicle crashes in the United States in the year 2001 reveals that motorcyclist fatalities increased 7.2%, from 2,862 fatalities in 2000 to 3,067 in 2001 [NHTSA 2002]. In 2001, 59,000 motorcyclists were injured, which represents an increase of 2.0% from 2000. These statistics are indicative of the risk that motorcycle riders face in the traffic environment and warrant the need for further research focusing on injury potential in motorcycle crashes. PMID:12941212

Integration of Active and Passive Safety Technologies--A Method to Study and Estimate Field Capability.

PubMed

Hu, Jingwen; Flannagan, Carol A; Bao, Shan; McCoy, Robert W; Siasoco, Kevin M; Barbat, Saeed

2015-11-01

The objective of this study is to develop a method that uses a combination of field data analysis, naturalistic driving data analysis, and computational simulations to explore the potential injury reduction capabilities of integrating passive and active safety systems in frontal impact conditions. For the purposes of this study, the active safety system is actually a driver assist (DA) feature that has the potential to reduce delta-V prior to a crash, in frontal or other crash scenarios. A field data analysis was first conducted to estimate the delta-V distribution change based on an assumption of 20% crash avoidance resulting from a pre-crash braking DA feature. Analysis of changes in driver head location during 470 hard braking events in a naturalistic driving study found that drivers' head positions were mostly in the center position before the braking onset, while the percentage of time drivers leaning forward or backward increased significantly after the braking onset. Parametric studies with a total of 4800 MADYMO simulations showed that both delta-V and occupant pre-crash posture had pronounced effects on occupant injury risks and on the optimal restraint designs. By combining the results for the delta-V and head position distribution changes, a weighted average of injury risk reduction of 17% and 48% was predicted by the 50th percentile Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) model and human body model, respectively, with the assumption that the restraint system can adapt to the specific delta-V and pre-crash posture. This study demonstrated the potential for further reducing occupant injury risk in frontal crashes by the integration of a passive safety system with a DA feature. Future analyses considering more vehicle models, various crash conditions, and variations of occupant characteristics, such as age, gender, weight, and height, are necessary to further investigate the potential capability of integrating passive and DA or active safety systems.

[Motor vehicle crash fatalities at 30 days in Spain].

PubMed

Pérez, Katherine; Pérez, Catherine; Cirera, Eva; Borrell, Carme; Plasencia, Antoni

2006-01-01

To assess level of fulfillment and utility of the hospital discharge register (HDR) as a complementary source of information for estimating the number of deaths at 30 days due to motor vehicle crashes in Spain. It is a cross-sectional study were we compared the number of people injured due to motor vehicle crashes hospitalised in a public hospital (HDR), in Spain during 2001, with the number of people severely injured or killed due to motor vehicle crashes reported by the police database (Dirección General de Tráfico, DGT) for the same year. A descriptive analysis was carried out by age, sex and region (Autonomous Community), as well as an estimation of the percentage of under-reporting of deaths by the DGT based on two assumptions. Police reported 27,272 severe injuries and 4,811 deaths during first 24 hours after the crash and after applying a fatality adjustment factor estimated 706 more deaths up to 30 days after the crash. The HDR reported 40,174 urgent hospitalisations. Of these, 1,099 died during the day of hospitalisation or within the following 30 days. The police only notified 68% of all cases that required hospitalisation. According to the number of deaths reported by police and contrasted with hospital register, estimations of the number of deaths at 30 days made by police could represent a level of under-reporting of between 3% and 6.6%, depending on the assumption considered. This study showed that the HDR is an information source that complements police statistics and is useful to estimate the number of deaths and non-fatal injuries due to motor vehicle crashes in Spain.

Characteristics of single-vehicle crashes with e-bikes in Switzerland.

PubMed

Hertach, Patrizia; Uhr, Andrea; Niemann, Steffen; Cavegn, Mario

2018-08-01

In Switzerland, the usage and accident numbers of e-bikes have strongly increased in recent years. According to official statistics, single-vehicle accidents constitute an important crash type. Up to date, very little is known about the mechanisms and causes of these crashes. To gain more insight, a survey was conducted among 3658 e-cyclists in 2016. The crash risk and injury severity were analysed using logistic regression models. 638 (17%) e-cyclists had experienced a single-vehicle accident in road traffic since the beginning of their e-bike use. Risk factors were high riding exposure, male sex, and using the e-bike mainly for the purpose of getting to work or school. There was no effect of age on the crash risk. Skidding, falling while crossing a threshold, getting into or skidding on a tram/railway track and evasive actions were the most important accident mechanisms. The crash causes mentioned most often were a slippery road surface, riding too fast for the situation and inability to keep the balance. Women, elderly people, riders of e-bikes with a pedal support up to 45 km/h and e-cyclists who considered themselves to be less fit in comparison to people of the same age had an increased risk of injury. This study confirms the high relevance of single-vehicle crashes with e-bikes. Measures to prevent this type of accident could include the sensitisation of e-cyclists regarding the most common accident mechanisms and causes, a regular maintenance of bicycle pathways, improvements regarding tram and railway tracks and technological advancements of e-bikes. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Personality of young drivers in Oman: Relationship to risky driving behaviors and crash involvement among Sultan Qaboos University students.

PubMed

Al Azri, Mohammed; Al Reesi, Hamed; Al-Adawi, Samir; Al Maniri, Abdullah; Freeman, James

2017-02-17

Drivers' behaviors such as violations and errors have been demonstrated to predict crash involvement among young Omani drivers. However, there is a dearth of studies linking risky driving behaviors to the personality of young drivers. The aim of the present study was to assess such traits within a sample of young Omani drivers (as measured through the behavioral inhibition system [BIS] and the behavioral activation system [BAS]) and determine links with aberrant driving behaviors and self-reported crash involvement. A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Sultan Qaboos University that targeted all licensed Omani's undergraduate students. A total of 529 randomly selected students completed the self-reported questionnaire that included an assessment of driving behaviors (e.g., Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, DBQ) as well as the BIS/BAS measures. A total of 237 participants (44.8%) reported involvement in at least one crash since being licensed. Young drivers with lower BIS-Anxiety scores and higher BAS-Fun Seeking tendencies as well as male drivers were more likely to report driving violations. Statistically significant gender differences were observed on all BIS and BAS subscales (except for BAS-Fun) and the DBQ subscales, because males reported higher trait scores. Though personality traits were related to aberrant driving behaviors at the bivariate level, the constructs were not predictive of engaging in violations or errors. Furthermore, consistent with previous research, a supplementary multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only driving experience was predictive of crash involvement. The findings highlight that though personality traits influence self-reported driving styles (and differ between the genders), the relationship with crash involvement is not as clear. This article further outlines the key findings of the study in regards to understanding core psychological constructs that increase crash risk.

Effects of osteoporosis on AIS 3+ injury risk in motor-vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Hoff, Carrie N; Cunningham, Rebecca M

2010-11-01

Older occupants in motor-vehicle crashes are more likely to experience injury than younger occupants. One possible reason for this is that increasing age is associated with increased prevalence of osteoporosis, which decreases bone strength. Crash-injury data were used with Bayes' Theorem to estimate the conditional probability of AIS 3+ skeletal injury given that an occupant is osteoporotic for the injury to the head, spine, thorax, lower extremities, and upper extremities. This requires the conditional probabilities of osteoporosis given AIS 3+ injury for each of the body regions, which were determined from analysis of the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network database. It also requires information on probability of osteoporosis in the crash-involved population and the probabilities of AIS 3+ skeletal injury to different body regions in crashes. The latter probabilities were obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) database. The former was obtained by modeling the probability of osteoporosis in the US populations using data from the 2006 National Health Examination Nutrition Survey and applying this model to the estimate of the crash-involved population in NASS-CDS. To attempt to account for the effects of age on injury outcome that are independent of osteoporosis, only data from occupants who were 60 years of age or older were used in all analyses. Results indicate that the only body region that experiences a statistically significant change in fracture injury risk with osteoporosis is the spine, for which osteoporosis increases the risk of AIS 3+ fracture by 3.28 times, or from 0.41% to 1.34% (p<0.0001). This finding suggests that the increase in AIS 3+ injury risk with age for non-spine injuries is likely influenced by factors other than osteoporosis. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Motorcoach safety action plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

Motorcoach travel is a very safe mode of highway transportation in the : United States, transporting 750 million passengers per year. Despite this, : over the past 10 years, motorcoach crashes have resulted in an average of 19 : motorcoach occupant f...

Calibration of the Louisiana Highway Safety Manual : Research Project Capsule

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

Louisiana consistently ranks near the : bottom in national statistics regarding : highway safety, particularly traffi c crash : related fatalities. To counter these conditions, the Louisiana Department of : Transportation and Development (LADOTD) has...

Analysis of delta velocity and PDOF by means of collision partner and structural involvement in real-life crash pulses with modern passenger cars.

PubMed

Iraeus, Johan; Lindquist, Mats

2014-01-01

In the widely used National Automotive Sampling System (NASS)-Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) database, summary metrics that describe crashes are available. Crash angle or principal direction of force (PDOF) is estimated by the crash examiner and velocity changes (ΔV) in the x- and y-directions are calculated by the WinSMASH computer program using PDOF and results from rigid barrier crash testing combined with deformations of the crashed car. In recent years, results from event data recorders (EDRs) have been added to the database. The aim of this study is to compare both PDOF and ΔV between EDR measurements and WinSMASH calculations. NASS-CDS inclusion criteria were model-year 2000 through 2010 automobiles, frontal crashes with ΔV higher than 16 km/h, and the pulse entirely recorded in the EDR module. This resulted in 649 cases. The subject vehicles were further examined and characterized with regard to frontal structure engagement (large or small overlap) as well as collision properties of the partner (impact location; front, side, or back) or object. The EDR crash angle was calculated as the angle between the lateral and longitudinal ΔV at the time of peak longitudinal ΔV. This angle was compared to the NASS-CDS investigator's estimated PDOF with regard to structural engagement and the collision partner or object. Multiple linear regression was used to establish adjustment factors on ΔV and crash angle between the results calculated based on EDR recorded data and that estimated in NASS-CDS. According to this study, simulation in the newest WinSMASH version (2008) underestimates EDR ΔV by 11 percent for large overlap crashes and 17 percent for small overlap impacts. The older WinSMASH version, used prior to 2008, underestimated each one of these two groups by an additional 7 percentage points. Another significant variable to enhance the prediction was whether the crash examiner had reported the WinSMASH estimated ΔV as low or high. In this study, none of the collision partner groups was significantly different compared to front-to-front impacts. However, with a larger data set a couple of configurations may very well be significantly different. In this study, the crash angle denoted by PDOF in the NASS database underestimates the crash angle calculated from recent EDR modules by 35 percent. On average the ΔV and crash angle are underestimated in NASS-CDS when analyzing the data based on collision partner/object and structural engagement. The largest difference is found in small overlap crashes and the least difference in collision scenarios similar to barrier tests. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.

Statistical Detection of Atypical Aircraft Flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Statler, Irving; Chidester, Thomas; Shafto, Michael; Ferryman, Thomas; Amidan, Brett; Whitney, Paul; White, Amanda; Willse, Alan; Cooley, Scott; Jay, Joseph;

Severity of urban cycling injuries and the relationship with personal, trip, route and crash characteristics: analyses using four severity metrics

PubMed Central

Cripton, Peter A; Shen, Hui; Brubacher, Jeff R; Chipman, Mary; Friedman, Steven M; Harris, M Anne; Winters, Meghan; Reynolds, Conor C O; Cusimano, Michael D; Babul, Shelina; Teschke, Kay

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the relationship between cycling injury severity and personal, trip, route and crash characteristics. Methods Data from a previous study of injury risk, conducted in Toronto and Vancouver, Canada, were used to classify injury severity using four metrics: (1) did not continue trip by bike; (2) transported to hospital by ambulance; (3) admitted to hospital; and (4) Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS). Multiple logistic regression was used to examine associations with personal, trip, route and crash characteristics. Results Of 683 adults injured while cycling, 528 did not continue their trip by bike, 251 were transported by ambulance and 60 were admitted to hospital for further treatment. Treatment urgencies included 75 as CTAS=1 or 2 (most medically urgent), 284 as CTAS=3, and 320 as CTAS=4 or 5 (least medically urgent). Older age and collision with a motor vehicle were consistently associated with increased severity in all four metrics and statistically significant in three each (both variables with ambulance transport and CTAS; age with hospital admission; and motor vehicle collision with did not continue by bike). Other factors were consistently associated with more severe injuries, but statistically significant in one metric each: downhill grades; higher motor vehicle speeds; sidewalks (these significant for ambulance transport); multiuse paths and local streets (both significant for hospital admission). Conclusions In two of Canada's largest cities, about one-third of the bicycle crashes were collisions with motor vehicles and the resulting injuries were more severe than in other crash circumstances, underscoring the importance of separating cyclists from motor vehicle traffic. Our results also suggest that bicycling injury severity and injury risk would be reduced on facilities that minimise slopes, have lower vehicle speeds, and that are designed for bicycling rather than shared with pedestrians. PMID:25564148

Are drivers with CVD more at risk for motor vehicle crashes? Study of men aged 45 to 70.

PubMed Central

Guibert, R.; Potvin, L.; Ciampi, A.; Loiselle, J.; Philibert, L.; Franco, E. D.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether male drivers aged 45 to 70 years suffering from cardiovascular disease (CVD) are more likely to be involved in motor vehicle crashes (MVC) that are reported to the police. DESIGN: Population-based case-control study. SETTING: Data on drivers' ages and medical conditions were compiled from the Societé de l'assurance automobile du Québec's (SAAQ) computerized files. A questionnaire was mailed to all subjects to collect additional information on annual distances driven and various driving behaviours. PARTICIPANTS: Age-stratified population-based random sample. Subjects were 2504 drivers involved in MVCs during a 6-month period; controls were 2520 drivers not involved in crashes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of drivers with CVD involved in MVCs. RESULTS: Response rate to the questionnaire was 35.5%. Analysis of the SAAQ files' entire sample of 5024 drivers showed that drivers suffering from CVD were less likely to be involved in MVCs (odds ratio [OR] 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67 to 0.99) than drivers without CVD. Although the estimate of risk remains unchanged when adjusted for age, it becomes statistically insignificant. It also remains unchanged and statistically insignificant when adjusted for yearly distance driven and driver behaviour, as shown by responses to the questionnaire. Drivers suffering from CVD drove significantly less each year (8900 km) than drivers without medical conditions (13,000 km). CONCLUSION: This study shows no increased risk of motor vehicle crashes for drivers suffering from CVD. PMID:9585850

Vehicle manoeuvers as surrogate safety measures: Extracting data from the gps-enabled smartphones of regular drivers.

PubMed

Stipancic, Joshua; Miranda-Moreno, Luis; Saunier, Nicolas

2018-06-01

Network screening is a key element in identifying and prioritizing hazardous sites for engineering treatment. Traditional screening methods have used observed crash frequency or severity ranking criteria and statistical modelling approaches, despite the fact that crash-based methods are reactive. Alternatively, surrogate safety measures (SSMs) have become popular, making use of new data sources including video and, more rarely, GPS data. The purpose of this study is to examine vehicle manoeuvres of braking and accelerating extracted from a large quantity of GPS data collected using the smartphones of regular drivers, and to explore their potential as SSMs through correlation with historical collision frequency and severity across different facility types. GPS travel data was collected in Quebec City, Canada in 2014. The sample for this study contained over 4000 drivers and 21,000 trips. Hard braking (HBEs) and accelerating events (HAEs) were extracted and compared to historical crash data using Spearman's correlation coefficient and pairwise Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. Both manoeuvres were shown to be positively correlated with crash frequency at the link and intersection levels, though correlations were much stronger when considering intersections. Locations with more braking and accelerating also tend to have more collisions. Concerning severity, higher numbers of vehicle manoeuvres were also related to increased collision severity, though this relationship was not always statistically significant. The inclusion of severity testing, which is an independent dimension of safety, represents a substantial contribution to the existing literature. Future work will focus on developing a network screening model that incorporates these SSMs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IIHS side crash test ratings and occupant death risk in real-world crashes.

PubMed

Teoh, Eric R; Lund, Adrian K

2011-10-01

To evaluate how well the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) side crash test ratings predict real-world occupant death risk in side-impact crashes. The IIHS has been evaluating passenger vehicle side crashworthiness since 2003. In the IIHS side crash test, a vehicle is impacted perpendicularly on the driver's side by a moving deformable barrier simulating a typical sport utility vehicle (SUV) or pickup. Injury ratings are computed for the head/neck, torso, and pelvis/leg, and vehicles are rated based on their ability to protect occupants' heads and resist occupant compartment intrusion. Component ratings are combined into an overall rating of good, acceptable, marginal, or poor. A driver-only rating was recalculated by omitting rear passenger dummy data. Data were extracted from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and National Automotive Sampling System/General Estimates System (NASS/GES) for the years 2000-2009. Analyses were restricted to vehicles with driver side air bags with head and torso protection as standard features. The risk of driver death was computed as the number of drivers killed (FARS) divided by the number involved (NASS/GES) in left-side impacts and was modeled using logistic regression to control for the effects of driver age and gender and vehicle type and curb weight. Death rates per million registered vehicle years were computed for all outboard occupants and compared by overall rating. Based on the driver-only rating, drivers of vehicles rated good were 70 percent less likely to die when involved in left-side crashes than drivers of vehicles rated poor, after controlling for driver and vehicle factors. Compared with vehicles rated poor, driver death risk was 64 percent lower for vehicles rated acceptable and 49 percent lower for vehicles rated marginal. All 3 results were statistically significant. Among components, vehicle structure rating exhibited the strongest relationship with driver death risk. The vehicle registration-based results for drivers were similar, suggesting that the benefit was not due to differences in crash risk. The same pattern of results held for outboard occupants in nearside crashes per million registered vehicle years and, with the exception of marginally rated vehicles, also held for other crash types. Results show that IIHS side crash test ratings encourage designs that improve crash protection in meaningful ways beyond encouraging head protection side air bags, particularly by promoting vehicle structures that limit occupant compartment intrusion. Results further highlight the need for a strong occupant compartment and its influence in all types of crashes.

On-road bicycle facilities and bicycle crashes in Iowa, 2007-2010.

PubMed

Hamann, Cara; Peek-Asa, Corinne

2013-07-01

An average of 611 deaths and over 47,000 bicyclists are injured in traffic-related crashes in the United States each year. Efforts to increase bicycle safety are needed to reduce and prevent injuries and fatalities, especially as trends indicate that ridership is increasing rapidly. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of bicycle-specific roadway facilities (e.g., signage and bicycle lanes) in reducing bicycle crashes. We conducted a case site-control site study of 147 bicycle crash-sites identified from the Iowa Department of Transportation crash database from 2007 to 2010 and 147 matched non-crash sites. Control sites were randomly selected from intersections matched to case sites on neighborhood (census block group) and road classification (arterial, feeder, collector, etc.). We examined crash risk by any on-road bicycle facility present and by facility type (pavement markings--bicycle lanes and shared lane arrows, bicycle-specific signage, and the combination of markings and signage), controlling for bicycle volume, motor vehicle volume, street width, sidewalks, and traffic controls. A total of 11.6% of case sites and 15.0% of controls had an on-road bicycle facility. Case intersections had higher bicycle volume (3.52 vs. 3.34 per 30 min) and motor vehicle volume (248.77 vs. 205.76 per 30 min) than controls. Our results are suggestive that the presence of an on-road bicycle facility decreases crash risk by as much as 60% with a bicycle lane or shared lane arrow (OR=0.40, 95% CI=0.09-1.82) and 38% with bicycle-specific signage (OR=0.62, 95% CI=0.15-2.58). Investments in bicycle-specific pavement markings and signage have been shown to be beneficial to traffic flow, and our results suggest that they may also reduce the number of bicycle-motor vehicle crashes and subsequent injuries and fatalities. As a relatively low-cost traffic feature, community considerations for further implementation of these facilities are justified. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the effects of the fixed and varying dispersion parameters of Poisson-gamma models on empirical Bayes estimates.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Park, Peter Young-Jin

2008-07-01

Traditionally, transportation safety analysts have used the empirical Bayes (EB) method to improve the estimate of the long-term mean of individual sites; to correct for the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias in before-after studies; and to identify hotspots or high risk locations. The EB method combines two different sources of information: (1) the expected number of crashes estimated via crash prediction models, and (2) the observed number of crashes at individual sites. Crash prediction models have traditionally been estimated using a negative binomial (NB) (or Poisson-gamma) modeling framework due to the over-dispersion commonly found in crash data. A weight factor is used to assign the relative influence of each source of information on the EB estimate. This factor is estimated using the mean and variance functions of the NB model. With recent trends that illustrated the dispersion parameter to be dependent upon the covariates of NB models, especially for traffic flow-only models, as well as varying as a function of different time-periods, there is a need to determine how these models may affect EB estimates. The objectives of this study are to examine how commonly used functional forms as well as fixed and time-varying dispersion parameters affect the EB estimates. To accomplish the study objectives, several traffic flow-only crash prediction models were estimated using a sample of rural three-legged intersections located in California. Two types of aggregated and time-specific models were produced: (1) the traditional NB model with a fixed dispersion parameter and (2) the generalized NB model (GNB) with a time-varying dispersion parameter, which is also dependent upon the covariates of the model. Several statistical methods were used to compare the fitting performance of the various functional forms. The results of the study show that the selection of the functional form of NB models has an important effect on EB estimates both in terms of estimated values, weight factors, and dispersion parameters. Time-specific models with a varying dispersion parameter provide better statistical performance in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF) than aggregated multi-year models. Furthermore, the identification of hazardous sites, using the EB method, can be significantly affected when a GNB model with a time-varying dispersion parameter is used. Thus, erroneously selecting a functional form may lead to select the wrong sites for treatment. The study concludes that transportation safety analysts should not automatically use an existing functional form for modeling motor vehicle crashes without conducting rigorous analyses to estimate the most appropriate functional form linking crashes with traffic flow.

Thermal characterization of QSH crashes in RFX-mod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fassina, Alessandro; Gobbin, Marco; Franz, Paolo; Marrelli, Lionello; Ruzzon, Alberto

2012-10-01

QSH (Quasi Single Helicity) states have gained a growing interest in RFP research since they show improved confinement and transport features with respect to standard discharges. However, ITBs associated with QSH states can be obtained only in a transient way, and in general with a shorter lifetime with respect to that of the QSH phase [1]. In this work the analysis has essentially the purpose of confirming, with TS data, the Te dynamics seen with the double filter, multichord SXR spectrometer in [1]: TS data allow a better spatial definition of temperature profile and a more reliable description of plasma edge. Te profile features in rising and crashing phases are determined via ensemble averaging, possible precursors of thermal crashes are identified, while q(r) behavior is studied identifying the thermal structures associated with rational surfaces. [4pt] [1] Ruzzon et al, 39th EPS Conference, P2.023

Effectiveness of innovative speed-enforcement techniques in Illinois.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

The effects of various police patrolling methods on the average speed and crash rate were studied in : this report. The number of speeding citations under various enforcement strategies was also : investigated. Two surveys were designed and conducted...

Deaths from international terrorism compared with road crash deaths in OECD countries

PubMed Central

Wilson, N; Thomson, G

2005-01-01

Methods: Data on deaths from international terrorism (US State Department database) were collated (1994–2003) and compared to the road injury deaths (year 2000 and 2001 data) from the OECD International Road Transport Accident Database. Results: In the 29 OECD countries for which comparable data were available, the annual average death rate from road injury was approximately 390 times that from international terrorism. The ratio of annual road to international terrorism deaths (averaged over 10 years) was lowest for the United States at 142 times. In 2001, road crash deaths in the US were equal to those from a September 11 attack every 26 days. Conclusions: There is a large difference in the magnitude of these two causes of deaths from injury. Policy makers need to be aware of this when allocating resources to preventing these two avoidable causes of mortality. PMID:16326764

GIS Tools For Improving Pedestrian & Bicycle Safety

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-07-01

Geographic Information System (GIS) software turns statistical data, such as accidents, and geographic data, such as roads and crash locations, into meaningful information for spatial analysis and mapping. In this project, GIS-based analytical techni...

Validating a driving simulator using surrogate safety measures.

PubMed

Yan, Xuedong; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Radwan, Essam; Wang, Xuesong; Chilakapati, Praveen

2008-01-01

Traffic crash statistics and previous research have shown an increased risk of traffic crashes at signalized intersections. How to diagnose safety problems and develop effective countermeasures to reduce crash rate at intersections is a key task for traffic engineers and researchers. This study aims at investigating whether the driving simulator can be used as a valid tool to assess traffic safety at signalized intersections. In support of the research objective, this simulator validity study was conducted from two perspectives, a traffic parameter (speed) and a safety parameter (crash history). A signalized intersection with as many important features (including roadway geometries, traffic control devices, intersection surroundings, and buildings) was replicated into a high-fidelity driving simulator. A driving simulator experiment with eight scenarios at the intersection were conducted to determine if the subjects' speed behavior and traffic risk patterns in the driving simulator were similar to what were found at the real intersection. The experiment results showed that speed data observed from the field and in the simulator experiment both follow normal distributions and have equal means for each intersection approach, which validated the driving simulator in absolute terms. Furthermore, this study used an innovative approach of using surrogate safety measures from the simulator to contrast with the crash analysis for the field data. The simulator experiment results indicated that compared to the right-turn lane with the low rear-end crash history record (2 crashes), subjects showed a series of more risky behaviors at the right-turn lane with the high rear-end crash history record (16 crashes), including higher deceleration rate (1.80+/-1.20 m/s(2) versus 0.80+/-0.65 m/s(2)), higher non-stop right-turn rate on red (81.67% versus 57.63%), higher right-turn speed as stop line (18.38+/-8.90 km/h versus 14.68+/-6.04 km/h), shorter following distance (30.19+/-13.43 m versus 35.58+/-13.41 m), and higher rear-end probability (9/59=0.153 versus 2/60=0.033). Therefore, the relative validity of driving simulator was well established for the traffic safety studies at signalized intersections.

Association between commercial vehicle driver at-fault crashes involving sleepiness/fatigue and proximity to rest areas and truck stops.

PubMed

Bunn, Terry L; Slavova, Svetla; Rock, Peter J

2017-11-22

There is ongoing concern at the national level about the availability of adequate commercial vehicle rest areas and truck stops for commercial vehicle drivers to rest or to wait for a delivery window. A retrospective case-control study was conducted to determine the association between the occurrence of sleepiness/fatigue-related (cases) vs. all other human factor-related commercial vehicle driver at-fault crashes (controls) and proximity to rest areas, weigh stations with rest havens, and truck stops. Commercial vehicle driver at-fault crashes involving sleepiness/fatigue were more likely to occur on roadways where the nearest rest areas/weigh stations with rest havens/truck stops were located 20 miles or more from the commercial vehicle crash site (Odds Ratio [OR]=2.32; Confidence Interval [CI] 1.615, 3.335] for 20-39.9 miles vs. <20 miles; and OR=6.788 [CI 2.112, 21.812] for 40+ miles) compared to commercial vehicle at-fault driver crashes with human factors other than sleepiness/fatigue cited in crash reports. Commercial vehicle driver at-fault crashes involving sleepiness/fatigue also were more likely to occur on parkways compared to interstates (adjusted OR=3.747 [CI 2.83, 4.95]), during nighttime hours (adjusted OR=6.199 [CI 4.733, 8.119]), and on dry pavement (adjusted OR 1.909, [CI 1.373, 2.655]). The use of statewide crash data analysis coupled with ArcGIS mapping capabilities provided the opportunity to both statistically determine and to visualize the association between rest area/weigh station with rest haven/truck stop distance and the occurrence of commercial vehicle driver at-fault crashes involving sleepiness/fatigue. Implementation and evaluation of commercial vehicle employer policies and interventions such as the use of commercial vehicle driver fatigue alert systems may help to reduce fatigue and sleepiness in commercial vehicle drivers. These results can be used by state and local highway transportation officials to inform and increase truck parking availability, especially on parkways. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

All-terrain vehicles (ATVs) on the road: a serious traffic safety and public health concern.

PubMed

Denning, Gerene; Jennissen, Charles; Harland, Karisa; Ellis, David; Buresh, Christopher

2013-01-01

On-road all-terrain vehicle (ATV) crashes are frequent occurrences that disproportionately impact rural communities. These crashes occur despite most states having laws restricting on-road ATV use. A number of overall risk factors for ATV-related injuries have been identified (e.g., lack of helmet, carrying passengers). However, few studies have determined the relative contribution of these and other factors to on-road crashes and injuries. The objective of our study was to determine whether there were differences between on- and off-road ATV crashes in their demographics and/or mechanisms and outcomes of injuries. Data were derived from our statewide ATV injury surveillance database (2002-2009). Crash location and crash and injury mechanisms were coded using a modification of the Department of Transportation (DOT) coding system. Descriptive analyses and statistical comparisons (chi-square test) of variables were performed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine relative risk. 976 records were included in the final analysis, with 38 percent of the injured individuals from on-road crashes. Demographics were similar for crashes at each location, with approximately 80 percent males, 30 percent under the age of 16, and 15 percent passengers. However, females and youths under 16 were over 4 times more likely to be passengers (P ≤ 0.0001), regardless of crash location. Compared to those off-road, on-road crash victims were approximately 10 times more likely to be involved in a vehicle-vehicle collision (P < 0.001), 3 times more likely to have a severe brain injury (P < 0.001), and twice as likely to have suffered major trauma (P < 0.001). Adult operators in on-road crashes were also twice as likely to test positive for alcohol as those off-road (P < 0.05). Helmet use significantly reduced the odds of sustaining a brain injury and on-road victims were only half as likely to be helmeted (P < 0.01). More than 1 in 3 on-road crashes involved a collision with another vehicle, suggesting that ATVs on the road represent a potential traffic safety concern. Of note, helmets were associated with reduced risk for the number and severity of brain injuries, providing further support for the importance of helmet use. Finally, even controlling for helmet use, on-road crash victims suffered more major trauma and severe brain injuries than those off-road. Overall, our data reinforce the importance of laws restricting ATV road use and the need for effective enforcement, as well as the need to increase user education about ATV road-use laws and the dangers of riding on the roads.

Comparison of older and younger novice driver crash rates: Informing the need for extended Graduated Driver Licensing restrictions.

PubMed

Curry, Allison E; Metzger, Kristina B; Williams, Allan F; Tefft, Brian C

2017-11-01

Few previous studies have directly compared crash rates of older and younger novice drivers. To inform discussion about whether Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) policies that are applied in the US for younger novice drivers should be applied to older novice drivers, we conducted a longitudinal study to examine overall, nighttime, and multiple passenger crash rates over the initial four years of licensure differ for novice drivers licensed at different ages. Using data from the New Jersey Traffic Safety Outcomes (NJ-TSO) data warehouse, we selected all NJ drivers who obtained their initial intermediate driver's license from 2006 through 2014 and had at least one month of follow-up from the date of licensure to study end or death (n=1,034,835). Novice drivers were grouped based on age at licensure: age 17; 18-20; 21-24; and 25 or older. We estimated monthly rates for overall crashes (per 10,000 licensed drivers) as well as: late night crashes (11:01 p.m.-4:59 a.m.); early night crashes (9:00 p.m.-11:00 p.m.); and multiple passenger crashes (two or more passengers). Average monthly rates were calculated for specific relevant time periods and Poisson regression models were used to compare rates: (1) between novice driver groups with the same time since licensure; (2) over the first 48 months of licensure within each novice driver group; and (3) between same-aged 21-year-old drivers with varying lengths of licensure. Although initial (three months post-licensure) overall crash rates of novice NJ drivers age 21 and older were higher than rates of same-aged experienced drivers, they were substantially lower than initial rates for 17- to 20-year-old novice drivers, who are licensed under GDL policies. Moreover, older novice drivers experience much less steep crash reductions over the first year of licensure than younger novice drivers. Nighttime crash rates among the 21- to 24-year old and aged 25 and older novice driver groups were stable over the first year of licensure. For novice drivers under age 21, early night crash rates declined rapidly over the course of licensure, while changes in late night crashes were much smaller. First-year multiple passenger crash rates were highest for drivers licensed at age 18-20, and novice driver groups experienced varying amounts of reduction in multiple passenger crashes over time. Study findings support NJ's current GDL policies for 17- to 20-year-old novice drivers and the potential for added benefits from beginning the nighttime restriction at 9:00 p.m. Conversely, there was a lack of compelling evidence for additional policies for drivers licensed at age 21-24 and no evidence to indicate a need for additional GDL policies for NJ novices aged 25 years and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of low speed autonomous emergency braking in real-world rear-end crashes.

PubMed

Fildes, B; Keall, M; Bos, N; Lie, A; Page, Y; Pastor, C; Pennisi, L; Rizzi, M; Thomas, P; Tingvall, C

2015-08-01

This study set out to evaluate the effectiveness of low speed autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in current model passenger vehicles, based on real-world crash experience. The validating vehicle safety through meta-analysis (VVSMA) group comprising a collaboration of government, industry consumer organisations and researchers, pooled data from a number of countries using a standard analysis format and the established MUND approach. Induced exposure methods were adopted to control for any extraneous effects. The findings showed a 38 percent overall reduction in rear-end crashes for vehicles fitted with AEB compared to a comparison sample of similar vehicles. There was no statistical evidence of any difference in effect between urban (≤60 km/h) and rural (>60 km/h) speed zones. Areas requiring further research were identified and widespread fitment through the vehicle fleet is recommended. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatiotemporal and random parameter panel data models of traffic crash fatalities in Vietnam.

PubMed

Truong, Long T; Kieu, Le-Minh; Vu, Tuan A

2016-09-01

This paper investigates factors associated with traffic crash fatalities in 63 provinces of Vietnam during the period from 2012 to 2014. Random effect negative binomial (RENB) and random parameter negative binomial (RPNB) panel data models are adopted to consider spatial heterogeneity across provinces. In addition, a spatiotemporal model with conditional autoregressive priors (ST-CAR) is utilised to account for spatiotemporal autocorrelation in the data. The statistical comparison indicates the ST-CAR model outperforms the RENB and RPNB models. Estimation results provide several significant findings. For example, traffic crash fatalities tend to be higher in provinces with greater numbers of level crossings. Passenger distance travelled and road lengths are also positively associated with fatalities. However, hospital densities are negatively associated with fatalities. The safety impact of the national highway 1A, the main transport corridor of the country, is also highlighted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of Vehicle Size and Mass and Selected Driver Factors on Odds of Driver Fatality

PubMed Central

Padmanaban, Jeya

2003-01-01

Research was undertaken to determine vehicle size parameters influencing driver fatality odds, independent of mass, in two-vehicle collisions. Forty vehicle parameters were evaluated for 1,500 vehicle groupings. Logistic regression analyses show driver factors (belt use, age, drinking) collectively contribute more to fatality odds than vehicle factors, and that mass is the most important vehicular parameter influencing fatality odds for all crash configurations. In car crashes, other vehicle parameters with statistical significance had a second order effect compared to mass. In light truck-to-car crashes, “vehicle type-striking vehicle is light truck” was the most important parameter after mass, followed by vehicle height and bumper height, with second order effect. To understand the importance of “vehicle type” variable, further investigation of vehicle “stiffness” and other passenger car/light truck differentiating parameters is warranted. PMID:12941244

Identifying the Bottom Line after a Stock Market Crash

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roehner, B. M.

In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often referred to as the interest rate spread variable, can be considered as a statistical measure for the disparity in lenders' opinions about the future; in other words, it provides an operational definition of the uncertainty faced by economic agents. The observation that there is a strong negative correlation between stock prices and the spread variable relies on the examination of eight major crashes in the United States between 1857 and 1987. That relationship which has remained valid for one and a half century in spite of important changes in the organization of financial markets can be of interest in the perspective of Monte Carlo simulations of stock markets.

An Evaluation of Graduated Driver Licensing Effects on Fatal Crash Involvements of Young Drivers in the United States

PubMed Central

Fell, James C.; Jones, Kristina; Romano, Eduardo; Voas, Robert

2013-01-01

Objective Graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems are designed to reduce the high crash risk of young novice drivers. Almost all states in the United States have some form of a three-phased GDL system with various restrictions in the intermediate phase. Studies of the effects of GDL in various states show significant reductions in fatal crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers; however, only a few national studies of GDL effects have been published. The objective of this national panel study was to evaluate the effect of GDL laws on the fatal crash involvements of novice drivers while controlling for possible confounding factors not accounted for in prior studies. Methods The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) was used to examine 16- and 17-year-old driver involvement in fatal crashes (where GDL laws are applied) relative to two young driver age groups (19-20, 21-25) where GDL would not be expected to have an effect. Dates when various GDL laws were adopted in the states between 1990 and 2007 were coded from a variety of sources. Covariates in the longitudinal panel regression analyses conducted included four laws that could have an effect on 16- and 17-year-old drivers: primary enforcement seat belt laws, zero-tolerance (ZT) alcohol laws for drivers younger than age 21, lowering the blood alcohol concentration limit for driving to .08, and so-called “use and lose” laws where drivers aged 20 and younger lose their licenses for underage drinking violations. Results The adoption of a GDL law of average strength was associated with a significant decrease in fatal crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers relative to fatal crash involvements of one of the two comparison groups. GDL laws rated as “good” showed stronger relationships to fatal crash reductions, and laws rated as “less than good” showed no reductions in crash involvements relative to the older driver comparison groups. Conclusions States that adopt a basic GDL law can expect a decrease of 8 to 14% in the proportion of 16- and 17-year-old drivers involved in fatal crashes (relative to 21- to 25-year-old drivers), depending upon their other existing laws that affect novice drivers, such as those used in these analyses. This finding is consistent with recent national studies that used different outcome measures and covariates. The results of this study provide additional support for states to adopt, maintain, and upgrade GDL systems to reduce youthful traffic crash fatalities. PMID:21972851

Road weather management best practices : version 3.0.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

The impacts of weather on the nations road system greatly affect safety, mobility, and productivity. Weather affects roadway safety through increased crash risk, as well as exposure to weather-related hazards. On average 7,130 fatalities and 629,0...

Bus Crashworthiness Issues. Highway Special Investigation Report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-09-01

School bus and motorcoach travel are two of the safest forms of transportation in the United States. Each year, on average, nine school bus passengers and four motorcoach passengers are fatally injured in bus crashes, according to the National Highwa...

Traffic safety facts 1996 : overview

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

This overview fact sheet contains statistics on motor vehicle fatalities based on data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). FARS is a census of fatal crashes within the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico (although Pue...

Traffic safety facts 1995 : overview

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

This overview fact sheet contains statistics on motor vehicle fatalities based on data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). FARS is a census of fatal crashes within the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico (although Pue...

Illinois crash facts and statistics, 2006

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

The year 2006 was the beginning of a celebration of two : major accomplishments: 1) decreasing fatalities to the : lowest level since 1924, and 2) surpassing the : departments goal of 90 percent safety belt usage. : Fatalities on Illinois roadways...

Crash tests of four low-wing twin-engine airplanes with truss-reinforced fuselage structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, M. S.; Fasanella, E. L.

1982-01-01

Four six-place, low-wing, twin-engine, general aviation airplane test specimens were crash tested under controlled free flight conditions. All airplanes were impacted on a concrete test surface at a nomial flight path velocity of 27 m/sec. Two tests were conducted at a -15 deg flight path angle (0 deg pitch angle and 15 deg pitch angle), and two were conducted at a -30 deg flight path angle (-30 deg pitch angle). The average acceleration time histories (crash pulses) in the cabin area for each principal direction were calculated for each crash test. In addition, the peak floor accelerations were calculated for each test as a function of aircraft fuselage longitudinal station number. Anthropomorphic dummy accelerations were analyzed using the dynamic response index and severity index (SI) models. Parameters affecting the dummy restraint system were studied; these parameters included the effect of no upper torso restraint, measurement of the amount of inertia-reel strap pullout before locking, measurement of dummy chest forward motion, and loads in the restraints. With the SI model, the dummies with no shoulder harness received head impacts above the concussive threshold.

Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

PubMed

Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

2017-04-01

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The memory remains: Understanding collective memory in the digital age

PubMed Central

García-Gavilanes, Ruth; Mollgaard, Anders; Tsvetkova, Milena; Yasseri, Taha

2017-01-01

Recently developed information communication technologies, particularly the Internet, have affected how we, both as individuals and as a society, create, store, and recall information. The Internet also provides us with a great opportunity to study memory using transactional large-scale data in a quantitative framework similar to the practice in natural sciences. We make use of online data by analyzing viewership statistics of Wikipedia articles on aircraft crashes. We study the relation between recent events and past events and particularly focus on understanding memory-triggering patterns. We devise a quantitative model that explains the flow of viewership from a current event to past events based on similarity in time, geography, topic, and the hyperlink structure of Wikipedia articles. We show that, on average, the secondary flow of attention to past events generated by these remembering processes is larger than the primary attention flow to the current event. We report these previously unknown cascading effects. PMID:28435881

The memory remains: Understanding collective memory in the digital age.

PubMed

García-Gavilanes, Ruth; Mollgaard, Anders; Tsvetkova, Milena; Yasseri, Taha

2017-04-01

Recently developed information communication technologies, particularly the Internet, have affected how we, both as individuals and as a society, create, store, and recall information. The Internet also provides us with a great opportunity to study memory using transactional large-scale data in a quantitative framework similar to the practice in natural sciences. We make use of online data by analyzing viewership statistics of Wikipedia articles on aircraft crashes. We study the relation between recent events and past events and particularly focus on understanding memory-triggering patterns. We devise a quantitative model that explains the flow of viewership from a current event to past events based on similarity in time, geography, topic, and the hyperlink structure of Wikipedia articles. We show that, on average, the secondary flow of attention to past events generated by these remembering processes is larger than the primary attention flow to the current event. We report these previously unknown cascading effects.

A fully Bayesian before-after analysis of permeable friction course (PFC) pavement wet weather safety.

PubMed

Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Smit, Andre F; Prozzi, Jorge A

2015-07-01

Permeable friction course (PFC), a porous hot-mix asphalt, is typically applied to improve wet weather safety on high-speed roadways in Texas. In order to warrant expensive PFC construction, a statistical evaluation of its safety benefits is essential. Generally, the literature on the effectiveness of porous mixes in reducing wet-weather crashes is limited and often inconclusive. In this study, the safety effectiveness of PFC was evaluated using a fully Bayesian before-after safety analysis. First, two groups of road segments overlaid with PFC and non-PFC material were identified across Texas; the non-PFC or reference road segments selected were similar to their PFC counterparts in terms of site specific features. Second, a negative binomial data generating process was assumed to model the underlying distribution of crash counts of PFC and reference road segments to perform Bayesian inference on the safety effectiveness. A data-augmentation based computationally efficient algorithm was employed for a fully Bayesian estimation. The statistical analysis shows that PFC is not effective in reducing wet weather crashes. It should be noted that the findings of this study are in agreement with the existing literature, although these studies were not based on a fully Bayesian statistical analysis. Our study suggests that the safety effectiveness of PFC road surfaces, or any other safety infrastructure, largely relies on its interrelationship with the road user. The results suggest that the safety infrastructure must be properly used to reap the benefits of the substantial investments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fractals and Forecasting in Earthquakes and Finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Turcotte, D. L.

2011-12-01

It is now recognized that Benoit Mandelbrot's fractals play a critical role in describing a vast range of physical and social phenomena. Here we focus on two systems, earthquakes and finance. Since 1942, earthquakes have been characterized by the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, which in more recent times is often written as a moment-frequency power law. A similar relation can be shown to hold for financial markets. Moreover, a recent New York Times article, titled "A Richter Scale for the Markets" [1] summarized the emerging viewpoint that stock market crashes can be described with similar ideas as large and great earthquakes. The idea that stock market crashes can be related in any way to earthquake phenomena has its roots in Mandelbrot's 1963 work on speculative prices in commodities markets such as cotton [2]. He pointed out that Gaussian statistics did not account for the excessive number of booms and busts that characterize such markets. Here we show that both earthquakes and financial crashes can both be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model, involving the presence of a classical limit of stability, or spinodal. These metastable systems are characterized by fractal statistics near the spinodal. For earthquakes, the independent ("order") parameter is the slip deficit along a fault, whereas for the financial markets, it is financial leverage in place. For financial markets, asset values play the role of a free energy. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In the case of financial models, the probabilities are closely related to implied volatility, an important component of Black-Scholes models for stock valuations. [2] B. Mandelbrot, The variation of certain speculative prices, J. Business, 36, 294 (1963)

Relationship between pedestrian headform tests and injury and fatality rates in vehicle-to-pedestrian crashes in the United States.

PubMed

Mueller, Becky; Farmer, Charles; Jermakian, Jessica; Zuby, David

2013-11-01

Pedestrian protection evaluations have been developed to encourage vehicle front-end designs that mitigate the consequences of vehicle-to-pedestrian crashes. The European New Car Assessment Program (Euro NCAP) evaluates pedestrian head protection with impacts against vehicle hood, windshield, and A-pillars. The Global Technical Regulation No. 9 (GTR 9), being evaluated for U.S. regulation, limits head protection evaluations to impacts against vehicle hoods. The objective of this study was to compare results from pedestrian head impact testing to the real-world rates of fatal and incapacitating injuries in U.S. pedestrian crashes. Data from police reported pedestrian crashes in 14 states were used to calculate real-world fatal and in- capacitating injury rates for seven 2002-07 small cars. Rates were 2.17-4.04 per 100 pedestrians struck for fatal injuries and 10.45-15.35 for incapacitating injuries. Euro NCAP style pedestrian headform tests were conducted against windshield, A-pillar, and hoods of the study vehicles. When compared with pedestrian injury rates, the vehicles' Euro NCAP scores, ranging 5-10 points, showed strong negative correlations (-0.6) to injury rates, though none were statistically significant. Data from the headform impacts for each of the study vehicles were used to calculate that vehicle's predicted serious injury risk. The predicted risks from both the Euro NCAP and GTR 9 test zones showed high positive correlations with the pedestrian fatal and incapacitating injury rates, though few were statistically significant. Whether vehicle stiffness is evaluated on all components of vehicle front ends (Euro NCAP) or is limited to hoods (GTR 9), softer vehicle components correspond to a lower risk of fatality.

Impact of the 1994 alcohol production and sales deregulation policy on traffic crashes and fatalities in Japan.

PubMed

Desapriya, Ediriweera; Fujiwara, Takeo; Dutt, Namrata; Arason, Neil; Pike, Ian

2012-09-01

. Many studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between alcohol availability and traffic crashes involving alcohol-impaired drivers. The present analysis focuses on the evaluation of the impact of alcohol availability on the Japanese population by comparing fatal and nonfatal motor vehicle crash rates before and after implementation of the alcohol deregulation policy in 1994. Participants and method. Poisson regression with robust standard error was used to model the before-to-after change in incidence rate ratios (IRRs) in the population. To control for potential confounders, per capita alcohol consumption, unemployment rate, and vehicle miles travelled (VMT) were also added to the model. The exponents of the fitted coefficients are equivalent to the IRRs. . Implementation of the policy deregulating alcohol sales and production did not appear to increase traffic fatalities and other traffic crashes in Japan. In the overall study results, nighttime fatalities were reduced statistically significantly by 6% since the implementation of the alcohol deregulation policy in 1994. Discussion. Contrary to previous research, the findings of this study demonstrated lower rates of fatalities and higher compliance with alcohol-related driving legislation. Further well-designed, nonaligned studies on alcohol availability and traffic fatalities in other countries are urgently needed.

A comprehensive study on pavement edge line implementation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

The previous 2011 study Safety Improvement from Edge Lines on Rural Two-Lane Highways analyzed the crash data of : three years before and one year after edge line implementation by using the latest safety analysis statistical method. It : concl...

Development and Calibration of Highway Safety Manual Equations for Florida Conditions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-31

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides statistically-valid analytical tools and techniques for quantifying the potential effects on crashes as a result of decisions made in planning, design, operations, and maintenance. Implementation of the new te...

Development and calibration of highway safety manual equations for Florida conditions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-31

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides statistically-valid analytical tools and techniques for : quantifying the potential effects on crashes as a result of decisions made in planning, design, : operations, and maintenance. Implementation of the ne...

Methodology to evaluate teen driver training programs : [brief].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

In the United States, teenage drivers are more at risk of being involved in crashes than : any other age group. Statistics reveal a clear need for improving teenagers driving : skills, judgment and behavior. Driver education programs are a crucial...

Variety of Behavior of Equity Returns in Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonanno, Giovanni; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2001-03-01

The price dynamics of a set of equities traded in an efficient market is pretty complex. It consists of almost not redundant time series which have (i) long-range correlated volatility and (ii) cross-correlation between each pair of equities. We perform a study of the statistical properties of an ensemble of equities returns which is fruitful to elucidate the nature and role of time and ensemble correlation. Specifically, we investigate a statistical ensemble of daily returns of n equities traded in United States financial markets. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution. We find that a typical ensemble return distribution exists in most of the trading days [1] with the exception of crash and rally days and of the days following to these extreme events [2]. We analyze each ensemble return distribution by extracting its first two central moments. We call the second moment of the ensemble return distribution the variety of the market. We choose this term because high variety implies a variated behavior of the equities returns in the considered day. We observe that the mean return and the variety are fluctuating in time and are stochastic processes themselves. The variety is a long-range correlated stochastic process. Customary time-averaged statistical properties of time series of stock returns are also considered. In general, time-averaged and portfolio-averaged returns have different statistical properties [1]. We infer from these differences information about the relative strength of correlation between equities and between different trading days. We also compare our empirical results with those predicted by the single-index model and we conclude that this simple model is unable to explain the statistical properties of the second moment of the ensemble return distribution. Correlation between pairs of equities are continuously present in the dynamics of a stock portfolio. Hence, it is relevant to investigate pair correlation in a efficient and original way. We propose to investigate these correlations at a daily and intra daily time horizon with a method based on concepts of random frustrated systems. Specifically, a hierarchical organization of the investigated equities is obtained by determining a metric distance between stocks and by investigating the properties of the subdominant ultrametric associated with it [3]. The high-frequency cross-correlation existing between pairs of equities are investigated in a set of 100 stocks traded in US equity markets. The decrease of the cross-correlation between the equity returns observed for diminishing time horizons progressively changes the nature of the hierarchical structure associated to each different time horizon [4]. The nature of the correlation present between pairs of time series of equity returns collected in a portfolio has a strong influence on the variety of the market. We finally discuss the relation between pair correlation and variety of an ensemble return distribution. References [1] Fabrizio Lillo and Rosario N. Mantegna, Variety and volatility in financial markets, Phys. Rev. E 62, 6126-6134 (2000). [2] Fabrizio Lillo and Rosario N. Mantegna, Symmetry alteration of ensemble return distribution in crash and rally days of financial market, Eur. Phys. J. B 15, 603-606 (2000). [3] Rosario N. Mantegna, Hierarchical structure in financial markets, Eur. Phys. J. B 11, 193-197 (1999). [4] Giovanni Bonanno, Fabrizio Lillo, and Rosario N. Mantegna, High-frequency cross-correlation in a set of stocks, Quantitative Finance (in press).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Z. Y., E-mail: zychen@hust.edu.cn; Huang, D. W.; Tong, R. H.

The measurement of internal magnetic fluctuation is important for the study of transport in tokamak plasmas. The runaway electron transport induced by the sawtooth crash can be used to obtain the internal magnetic fluctuation. Inversed sawtooth-like activities on hard x-ray (HXR) fluxes following sawtooth activities were observed after the application of electrode biasing on J-TEXT tokamak. The runaway diffusion coefficient D{sub r} is deduced to be about 30 m{sup 2}/s according to the time delay of HXR flux peaks to the sawtooth crashes. The averaged value of normalized magnetic fluctuation in the discharges with electrode biasing was increased to themore » order of 1 × 10{sup −4}.« less

Seat belt use to save face: impact on drivers' body region and nature of injury in motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Han, Guang-Ming; Newmyer, Ashley; Qu, Ming

2015-01-01

Seat belt use is the single most effective way to save lives and reduce injuries in motor vehicle crashes. However, some case reports described seat belt use as a double-edged sword because some injuries are related to seat belt use in motor vehicle crashes. To comprehensively understand the effects of seat belt use, we systemically investigated the association between seat belt use and injuries based on anatomic body region and type of injury in drivers involved in motor vehicle crashes. The injury information was obtained by linking crash reports with hospital discharge data and categorized by using the diagnosis codes based on the Barell injury diagnosis matrix. A total of 10,479 drivers (≥15 years) in passenger vehicles involved in motor vehicle crashes from 2006 to 2011 were included in this study. Seat belt use significantly reduced the proportions of traumatic brain injury (10.4% non-seat belt; 4.1% seat belt) and other head, face, and neck injury (29.3% non-seat belt; 16.6% seat belt) but increased the proportion of spine: thoracic to coccyx injury (17.9% non-seat belt; 35.5% seat belt). Although the proportion of spine: thoracic to coccyx injury was increased in drivers with seat belt use, the severity of injury was decreased, such as fracture (4.2% with seat belt use; 22.0% without seat belt use). Furthermore, the total medical charges decreased due to the change of injury profiles in drivers with seat belt use from a higher percentage of fractures (average cost for per case $26,352) to a higher percentage of sprains and/or strains ($1,897) with spine: thoracic to coccyx injury. This study provide a comprehensive picture for understanding the protective effect of seat belt use on injuries based on anatomic body region and type of injury in drivers involved in motor vehicle crashes.

Protection of children restrained in child safety seats in side impact crashes.

PubMed

Arbogast, Kristy B; Locey, Caitlin M; Zonfrillo, Mark R; Maltese, Matthew R

2010-10-01

The performance of child restraint systems (CRS) in side impact motor vehicle crashes has been under study due to the injury and fatality burden of these events. Although previous research has quantified injury risk or described injured body regions, safety advances require an understanding of injury causation. Therefore, the objective was to delineate injury causation scenarios for CRS-restrained children in side impacts and document probable contact points in the vehicle interior. Two in-depth crash investigation databases, the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network and the Partners for Child Passenger Safety Study, were queried for rear-seated, CRS-restrained children in side impact crashes who sustained Abbreviated Injury Scale 2+ injury. These cases were reviewed by a multidisciplinary team of physicians and engineers to describe injury patterns, injury causation, and vehicle components that contributed to the injuries. Forty-one occupants (average age, 2.6 years) met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-four were near side to the crash, 7 were far side, and 10 were center seated. The most common injuries were to the skull and brain with an increasing proportion of skull fracture as age increased. Head and spine injuries without evidence of head contact were rare but present. All thoracic injuries were lung contusions and no rib fractures occurred. Near-side head and face contacts points were along the rear vertical plane of the window and the horizontal plane of the window sill. Head and face contact points for center- and far-side occupants were along the edges of the front seat back and front seat head restraint. Head injuries are the target for injury prevention for children in CRS in side impact crashes. Most of these injuries are due to the contact; for near-side occupants, contact with the CRS structure and the door interior, for far- or center-seated occupants, contact with the front seat back. These data are useful in developing both educational and technological interventions to reduce the burden of injury to these children.

Contributing factors of crash injury severity at public highway-railroad grade crossings in the U.S.

PubMed

Haleem, Kirolos; Gan, Albert

2015-06-01

The Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21) includes a separate program that supports safety improvements to reduce the number of fatalities and injuries at public highway-railroad grade crossings (HRGCs). This study identifies the significant factors affecting crash injury severity at public HRGCs in the United States. Crashes from 2009 through 2013 on 5,528 public HRGCs, extracted from the Federal Railroad Administration database, were used in the analysis. A comprehensive list of risk factors was explored. Examples include predictors related to geographic region of crash, geometry (e.g., area type and pavement marking type), railroad (e.g., warning device type and railroad class), traffic (e.g., train speed and vehicles annual average daily traffic "AADT"), highway user (e.g., driver age and gender), and environment (e.g., lighting and weather conditions). The study used the mixed logit model to better capture the complex highway user behavior at HRGCs. Female highway users were at higher risk of involvement in injuries and fatalities compared to males. Higher train speeds, very old drivers, open areas, concrete road surface types, and railroad equipment striking highway users before crash, were all found to increase the injury likelihood. On the other hand, young and middle-age drivers, non-passing of standing vehicles at HRGCs, industrial areas, and presence of warning bells were found to reduce injuries and fatalities. The mixed logit model succeeded in identifying contributing factors of crash severity at public HRGCs and potential countermeasures to reduce both fatalities and injuries are suggested. It is important to install warning bells at public HRGCs, especially at those with high number of injury and fatality crashes. Enforcement of traffic nearby HRGCs is necessary to prevent vehicles from overtaking of standing vehicles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. and National Safety Council. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro-level safety analysis of pedestrian crashes in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Junguang; Lee, Chris; Ji, Zhuoran; You, Shikai

2016-11-01

Pedestrian safety has become one of the most important issues in the field of traffic safety. This study aims at investigating the association between pedestrian crash frequency and various predictor variables including roadway, socio-economic, and land-use features. The relationships were modeled using the data from 263 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) within the urban area of Shanghai - the largest city in China. Since spatial correlation exists among the zonal-level data, Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models with seven different spatial weight features (i.e. (a) 0-1 first order, adjacency-based, (b) common boundary-length-based, (c) geometric centroid-distance-based, (d) crash-weighted centroid-distance-based, (e) land use type, adjacency-based, (f) land use intensity, adjacency-based, and (g) geometric centroid-distance-order) were developed to characterize the spatial correlations among TAZs. Model results indicated that the geometric centroid-distance-order spatial weight feature, which was introduced in macro-level safety analysis for the first time, outperformed all the other spatial weight features. Population was used as the surrogate for pedestrian exposure, and had a positive effect on pedestrian crashes. Other significant factors included length of major arterials, length of minor arterials, road density, average intersection spacing, percentage of 3-legged intersections, and area of TAZ. Pedestrian crashes were higher in TAZs with medium land use intensity than in TAZs with low and high land use intensity. Thus, higher priority should be given to TAZs with medium land use intensity to improve pedestrian safety. Overall, these findings can help transportation planners and managers understand the characteristics of pedestrian crashes and improve pedestrian safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian network based framework for real-time crash prediction on the basic freeway segments of urban expressways.

PubMed

Hossain, Moinul; Muromachi, Yasunori

2012-03-01

The concept of measuring the crash risk for a very short time window in near future is gaining more practicality due to the recent advancements in the fields of information systems and traffic sensor technology. Although some real-time crash prediction models have already been proposed, they are still primitive in nature and require substantial improvements to be implemented in real-life. This manuscript investigates the major shortcomings of the existing models and offers solutions to overcome them with an improved framework and modeling method. It employs random multinomial logit model to identify the most important predictors as well as the most suitable detector locations to acquire data to build such a model. Afterwards, it applies Bayesian belief net (BBN) to build the real-time crash prediction model. The model has been constructed using high resolution detector data collected from Shibuya 3 and Shinjuku 4 expressways under the jurisdiction of Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway Company Limited, Japan. It has been specifically built for the basic freeway segments and it predicts the chance of formation of a hazardous traffic condition within the next 4-9 min for a particular 250 meter long road section. The performance evaluation results reflect that at an average threshold value the model is able to successful classify 66% of the future crashes with a false alarm rate less than 20%. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric Analyses of Log-Periodic Precursors to Financial Crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

We apply two nonparametric methods to further test the hypothesis that log-periodicity characterizes the detrended price trajectory of large financial indices prior to financial crashes or strong corrections. The term "parametric" refers here to the use of the log-periodic power law formula to fit the data; in contrast, "nonparametric" refers to the use of general tools such as Fourier transform, and in the present case the Hilbert transform and the so-called (H, q)-analysis. The analysis using the (H, q)-derivative is applied to seven time series ending with the October 1987 crash, the October 1997 correction and the April 2000 crash of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the Standard & Poor 500 and Nasdaq indices. The Hilbert transform is applied to two detrended price time series in terms of the ln(tc-t) variable, where tc is the time of the crash. Taking all results together, we find strong evidence for a universal fundamental log-frequency f=1.02±0.05 corresponding to the scaling ratio λ=2.67±0.12. These values are in very good agreement with those obtained in earlier works with different parametric techniques. This note is extracted from a long unpublished report with 58 figures available at , which extensively describes the evidence we have accumulated on these seven time series, in particular by presenting all relevant details so that the reader can judge for himself or herself the validity and robustness of the results.

Estimating safety effects of pavement management factors utilizing Bayesian random effect models.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Huang, Baoshan; Zaretzki, Russell L; Richards, Stephen; Yan, Xuedong

2013-01-01

Previous studies of pavement management factors that relate to the occurrence of traffic-related crashes are rare. Traditional research has mostly employed summary statistics of bidirectional pavement quality measurements in extended longitudinal road segments over a long time period, which may cause a loss of important information and result in biased parameter estimates. The research presented in this article focuses on crash risk of roadways with overall fair to good pavement quality. Real-time and location-specific data were employed to estimate the effects of pavement management factors on the occurrence of crashes. This research is based on the crash data and corresponding pavement quality data for the Tennessee state route highways from 2004 to 2009. The potential temporal and spatial correlations among observations caused by unobserved factors were considered. Overall 6 models were built accounting for no correlation, temporal correlation only, and both the temporal and spatial correlations. These models included Poisson, negative binomial (NB), one random effect Poisson and negative binomial (OREP, ORENB), and two random effect Poisson and negative binomial (TREP, TRENB) models. The Bayesian method was employed to construct these models. The inference is based on the posterior distribution from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. These models were compared using the deviance information criterion. Analysis of the posterior distribution of parameter coefficients indicates that the pavement management factors indexed by Present Serviceability Index (PSI) and Pavement Distress Index (PDI) had significant impacts on the occurrence of crashes, whereas the variable rutting depth was not significant. Among other factors, lane width, median width, type of terrain, and posted speed limit were significant in affecting crash frequency. The findings of this study indicate that a reduction in pavement roughness would reduce the likelihood of traffic-related crashes. Hence, maintaining a low level of pavement roughness is strongly suggested. In addition, the results suggested that the temporal correlation among observations was significant and that the ORENB model outperformed all other models.

Impact direction effect on serious-to-fatal injuries among drivers in near-side collisions according to impact location: focus on thoracic injuries.

PubMed

Lai, Xinghua; Ma, Chunsheng; Hu, Jingwen; Zhou, Qing

2012-09-01

Occupant injury in real world vehicle accidents can be significantly affected by a set of crash characteristics, of which impact direction and impact location (or damage location) in general scale interval (e.g., frontal impact is frequently defined as general damage to vehicle frontal end with impact angle range of 11-1 o'clock) have been identified to associate with injury outcome. The effects of crash configuration in more specific scale of interval on the injury characteristics have not been adequately investigated. This paper presents a statistical analysis to investigate the combined effects of specific impact directions and impact locations on the serious-to-fatal injuries of driver occupants involved in near-side collisions using crash data from National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) for the calendar years of 1995-2005. The screened injury dataset is categorized by three impact locations (side front, side center and side distributed) and two impact directions (oblique impact at 10 o'clock and pure lateral impact at 9 o'clock), resulting in six crash configurations in total. The weighted counts and the risks of different types of injuries in each subgroup are calculated, with which the relative risks along with 95% confidence intervals under oblique impacts versus lateral impacts in each impact location category are computed. Accordingly, the most frequent injury patterns, the risks and the coded-sources of serious thoracic injuries in different crash configurations are identified. The approach adopted in the present study provides new perspectives into occupant injury outcomes and associated mechanism. Results of the analyses reveal the importance of consideration of the crash configurations beyond the scope of existing side-impact regulatory tests and stress the necessity of vehicle crashworthiness and restraint system design in omni-direction to better protect occupants in real-world crash scenarios. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Driving following Kava Use and Road Traffic Injuries: A Population-Based Case-Control Study in Fiji (TRIP 14)

PubMed Central

Wainiqolo, Iris; Kafoa, Berlin; Kool, Bridget; Robinson, Elizabeth; Herman, Josephine; McCaig, Eddie; Ameratunga, Shanthi

2016-01-01

Objective To investigate the association between kava use and the risk of four-wheeled motor vehicle crashes in Fiji. Kava is a traditional beverage commonly consumed in many Pacific Island Countries. Herbal anxiolytics containing smaller doses of kava are more widely available. Methods Data for this population-based case-control study were collected from drivers of ‘case’ vehicles involved in serious injury-involved crashes (where at least one road user was killed or admitted to hospital for 12 hours or more) and ‘control’ vehicles representative of ‘driving time’ in the study base. Structured interviewer administered questionnaires collected self-reported participant data on demographic characteristics and a range of risk factors including kava use and potential confounders. Unconditional logistic regression models estimated odds ratios relating to the association between kava use and injury-involved crash risk. Findings Overall, 23% and 4% of drivers of case and control vehicles, respectively, reported consuming kava in the 12 hours prior to the crash or road survey. After controlling for assessed confounders, driving following kava use was associated with a four-fold increase in the odds of crash involvement (Odds ratio: 4.70; 95% CI: 1.90–11.63). The related population attributable risk was 18.37% (95% CI: 13.77–22.72). Acknowledging limited statistical power, we did not find a significant interaction in this association with concurrent alcohol use. Conclusion In this study conducted in a setting where recreational kava consumption is common, driving following the use of kava was associated with a significant excess of serious-injury involved road crashes. The precautionary principle would suggest road safety strategies should explicitly recommend avoiding driving following kava use, particularly in communities where recreational use is common. PMID:26930404

Driving following Kava Use and Road Traffic Injuries: A Population-Based Case-Control Study in Fiji (TRIP 14).

PubMed

Wainiqolo, Iris; Kafoa, Berlin; Kool, Bridget; Robinson, Elizabeth; Herman, Josephine; McCaig, Eddie; Ameratunga, Shanthi

2016-01-01

To investigate the association between kava use and the risk of four-wheeled motor vehicle crashes in Fiji. Kava is a traditional beverage commonly consumed in many Pacific Island Countries. Herbal anxiolytics containing smaller doses of kava are more widely available. Data for this population-based case-control study were collected from drivers of 'case' vehicles involved in serious injury-involved crashes (where at least one road user was killed or admitted to hospital for 12 hours or more) and 'control' vehicles representative of 'driving time' in the study base. Structured interviewer administered questionnaires collected self-reported participant data on demographic characteristics and a range of risk factors including kava use and potential confounders. Unconditional logistic regression models estimated odds ratios relating to the association between kava use and injury-involved crash risk. Overall, 23% and 4% of drivers of case and control vehicles, respectively, reported consuming kava in the 12 hours prior to the crash or road survey. After controlling for assessed confounders, driving following kava use was associated with a four-fold increase in the odds of crash involvement (Odds ratio: 4.70; 95% CI: 1.90-11.63). The related population attributable risk was 18.37% (95% CI: 13.77-22.72). Acknowledging limited statistical power, we did not find a significant interaction in this association with concurrent alcohol use. In this study conducted in a setting where recreational kava consumption is common, driving following the use of kava was associated with a significant excess of serious-injury involved road crashes. The precautionary principle would suggest road safety strategies should explicitly recommend avoiding driving following kava use, particularly in communities where recreational use is common.

Responsibility Study: Main Illicit Psychoactive Substances Among Car Drivers Involved in Fatal Road Crashes

PubMed Central

Gadegbeku, Blandine; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard

2011-01-01

In 1999, in France, before considering modifications in drug legislation, the government requested a study of the effect of illicit drugs on the risk of road crashes. It implemented a systematic screening of illicit drugs for all drivers involved in fatal crashes between October 2001 and September 2003. Within the European DRUID project, the study was restricted to car drivers. The project reported here is a responsibility analysis and, as such, it belongs to the framework of case-control studies; the outcome of interest is “being responsible for a fatal crash”. It was assessed with a method adapted from Robertson and Drummer. Cases are the 4,946 car drivers who are responsible for the crash; controls are the 1,986 car drivers selected from the non-responsible car drivers, in a way that makes the control group similar to the general driving population. The effect of cannabis on fatal crash responsibility is significant after adjustment for age, sex and alcohol: adjusted odds ratio is 1.89 [1.43–2.51]. The dose-response effect is significant (p=0.0001). For alcohol (≥0.1 g/l), the adjusted odds ratio for responsibility is 8.39 [6.95–10.11]. No interaction was found between alcohol and cannabis. For amphetamine, cocaine and opiates, adjusted odds ratios were not significantly different from 1. However the statistical power is low. The study finds similar odds ratios for alcohol as previously published. For cannabis, the significant odds ratio together with the significant dose-response effect indicates a causal relationship between cannabis and road crashes. A multiplicative effect between cannabis and alcohol was noted. PMID:22105404

The impact of environmental factors on traffic accidents in Iran.

PubMed

Lankarani, Kamran B; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Aghabeigi, Mohammad Reza; Moafian, Ghasem; Hoseinzadeh, Amin; Vossoughi, Mehrdad

2014-07-01

Road traffic crashes are the third highest cause of mortality in Iran. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of roadway environmental factors on traffic crash. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Iran between March 21, 2010 and December 30, 2010. The data on road traffic crashes were obtained from the Traffic Police Department records. These records were classified to control for the main confounders related to the type of crash and roadway environmental factors. Roadway environmental factors included crash scene light, weather, place of accident, the defects and geometrics of roadway and road surface. The study included 542,863 traffic crashes. The proportions of road traffic crash which led to injury were 24.44% at sunrise and 27.16% at sunset compared with 5.43% and 1.43% deaths at sunrise and sunset respectively. In regard to day time accidents, the proportions were 20.50% injuries and 0.55% deaths. The statistical analysis of the results showed that the ratio of injuries and deaths were significantly higher at sunrise and sunset than those occurring during daytime (P less than 0.001). The highest rate of death (5.07%) was due to dusty weather compared to 5.07% for other weather conditions (P less than 0.001). The highest mortality rate (3.45%) occurred on oily surfaces (P less than 0.001). The defective traffic signs were responsible for 30,046 injuries and 5.58% deaths, and road narrowing accounted for 22,775 injuries and, 4.23% deaths which indicated that the roadway defects inflict most frequent injuries and deaths. The lowest (0.74 %) and highest (3.09%) proportion of traffic crash- related deaths were due to flat straight and winding uphill/downhill roads respectively (P less than 0.001). Sunrise, sunset, dusty weather, oily road surfaces and winding uphill/downhill road were hazardous environmental factors. This study provides an insight into the potential impacts of environmental factors on road traffic accidents and underlines the implementation of appropriate preventive measures. © 2014 KUMS, All rights reserved.

How Thirty Years of Focused Safety Development has Influenced Injury Outcome in Volvo Cars

PubMed Central

Isaksson-Hellman, I.; Norin, H.

2005-01-01

This study points out how thirty years of focused safety development has produced a steady decrease in injury rates in car crashes, strongly influenced by a well-structured process. An important part of this process is the knowledge gained by accident research based on collection of data from real world crashes, and the feedback of this research into development work. Statistical analysis shows that the MAIS 2+ injury rate for the most recent car models has decreased by two-thirds compared to the rate for the oldest car models. Calculation of the effect of specific development steps will be given as examples. PMID:16179140

From empirical Bayes to full Bayes : methods for analyzing traffic safety data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-10-24

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for : analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were : their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively ap...

Economic externalities of relative accident rates.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

In 2005, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reported 2,448,017 deaths in the U.S., of these 43,510 happened in motor vehicle crashes (Fatality Analysis Reporting System, FARS). Every year, around 42,700 people are killed in motor vehicl...

Traffic safety facts 1996 : children

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death for children of every age from 6 to 14 years old (based on 1993 figures, which are the latest mortality data currently available from the National Center for Health Statistics). In 1996, there were...

Development of a methodology for accident causation research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-06-01

The obj ective of this study was to fully develop and apply a me thodology to : study accident causation, uhich was outlined in a previous study . " Causal" factors : are those pre-crash factors, which are statistically related to the accident rate :...